USAGOLD Discussion - September 2004

All times are U.S. Mountain Time

Goldendome
(09/01/2004; 00:16:35 MDT - Msg ID: 124116)
President "Terminator" in 2008??

Liberty Head: I believe that it would take a Constitutional Amendment for Arnold S.(Calif. Gov.) to run for President...he wasn't born in the U.S.--a requirement.
Caradoc
(09/01/2004; 00:29:23 MDT - Msg ID: 124117)
Another business scandal
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/040901/hollinger_2.htmlEvidently Enron and other business scsndals weren't enough to convince the buyers of equities that they're not getting a fair shake. Most likely having one more fresh example like the new one below probably won't be final straw either, but it's one more indication that stock certificates don't amount to what owning a certain percentage of a business ought to mean.

It's funny: if you were looking to buy a hardware store or a half interest in a pizza parlor you might consider the business as being worth maybe 10 times the net. But for equities people fork over 30 times earnings, and earnings are more than the net even if the business were run honestly. Go figure. And don't even try to factor in the liability of undercapitalized pension funds.

Whether or not all the business crooks go to jail, the world of paper is in for a tumble and those with real assets will be able to pick and choose amongst the rubble.

Meanwhile, a few more people and institutions are starting to take positions in real assets and even Joe Sixpack has a little more reason to look askance at what's in his 401-K. The clock is ticking....

Caradoc

Druid
(09/01/2004; 01:26:27 MDT - Msg ID: 124118)
(No Subject)

Druid: @Cometose, you're absolutely correct about having some legal shark(s) check into the silver NAKED short position but that would take some level of knowledge and understanding about what this particular market is all about. We take it for granted that these intellects outside this sphere of investing have some sort of clue about what we take for granted in our daily discussions.

I'm convinced that they don't have a clue and would take some serious learning on their part to understand the significance of it all. The "stockholder" as some sort of serious player has been relegated to the bottom, if not, underneath the barrel in investing much like the importance of the "taxpayer" as someone who can finance our government.

In our current paper construct, the Creditors are the important players and we're in the process of finding out just where in the pecking order they fit.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(09/01/2004; 05:53:59 MDT - Msg ID: 124119)
A risk-free request -- to help you enter the gold market with grace and confidence.
http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html

Get a head start on the gold market!
968
(09/01/2004; 07:27:41 MDT - Msg ID: 124120)
US Gold stock
http://www.goldseiten-forum.de/thread.php?threadid=879&sid=fa2963faa0e1f5b3d4598c0dcf602d68Very interesting thread : the US gold stock and its relation to the foreign gold stored in the US during both World Wars. Unfortenately in German. It's obvious that the gold was/is of much, much more importance then the foreign currency assets.

SNIP : "Von den �ber 13.600 metrischen Tonnen Gold, die zwischen 1934 und 1940 den USA zugeflossen sein sollen, wie erstmals Jahrzehnte nach dem Krieg behauptet wurde, k�nnen die USA den Zufluss von mindestens 8.000 Tonnen bis heute nicht belegen. Kann es sein, dass es den "ph�nomenalen Goldzufluss" �berhaupt nicht gegeben hat? Kann es sein, dass die USA mit einem genial einfachen oder einfach genialem Trick japanisches Raubgold, dass erst NACH dem Krieg in ihren Besitz gelangte, den Vorkriegsstatistiken zugeordnet und damit gewaschen haben und deshalb ihre Statistiken und Zahlen �ber ihre Goldreserven der Vorkriegsjahre erst in den 1970er Jahren ver�ffentlichten, nachdem sie halbwegs sicher sein konnten, dass die Unterschlagung des japanischen Raubgoldes von niemandem bemerkt worden war?"
TomJIl
(09/01/2004; 10:35:22 MDT - Msg ID: 124121)
babelfish / "economic girlie-men"
968 (+ those who don't speak German): Don't forget that there are various on-line translators available. I use this one from time to time, and the results were good enough for me to significantly better understand the jist of the clip you published:

http://babelfish.altavista.com/

To Der Gropenfuhrer's recent amusing comment, I would suggest that "economic girlie-men" will likely be quite recongnisable in the not-so-distant future...they will be the ones who own their homes.

Thanks to whoever it is on this board (Black Blade I'm pretty sure) who's catchy advise is "Get out of debt, Stay out of debt." I didn't really need it, but then I'm kind of a "girlie man" when it comes to that sort of thing.

Cometose
(09/01/2004; 11:09:03 MDT - Msg ID: 124122)
Crude OIL
CRUDE OIL ENCORE TOUR brought to you by
Peak OIL
War and REFINERY accidents????????
Increasing Demand
Social Engineering
BIG OIL AND OPEC engaging in Monopolistic Trade Practices to fix the price of oil
CHINA STRATEGIC RESERVES sucking RESERVOIR.......
Failed Energy / NO DOMESTIC ENERGY POLICY .......

is going to last MONTHS and YEARS
NOT Weeks and Days


I wonder if the depressed Oil and Oil Services sector is going to now SCREAM as the Stock Market Plunges........
I think that would make a great bet.....Instead of a Crash maybe will have a Multi Sector ROTATION only in to GOLD OIL AND PRECIOUS METALS AND OTHER COMMODITIES>.......

That's what I 'd do if i were a MUTUAL FUND MANAGER....
Move all my clients funds into the save but undiversified Commodity SECTOR .....


THIS MORNING I was offered a free disc with Precious Metals Seminar on it for Jim SInclair and distributed by MONEX..... THe Name HARRY and RICHARD were mentioned which I assume mean Shultz and RUSSELL...

WHile giving my information over the phone to the freindly representative at Monex who asked me a couple of questions, I got the distinct impression that something is out there .........ON THE WING .........great Idea......

Put the SHORTS out THERE on the WING .....
Belgian
(09/01/2004; 11:16:41 MDT - Msg ID: 124123)
Prof. Mundell in Germany
His advise : Stabilize (immobilize) the dollar-euro currency exchange rate ! Petro-euro is very realistic.

The dollar still wants Trichet to lower the euro-IRs and expand as recklessly as the dollar...for the economical well being of all of us !?

The story of the hungry debt-lion chasing the � and $ in the monetary desert, is still valid.

The present pseudo $-� exch. rate stability, corresponds with the goldprice ceilings of $-POG = $430 and �-POG = �350
An euro stronger in Gold than the dollar.

How long will the globe keep on supporting the dollar...and for what reason !? Maybe, Trichet might provide some more food for thought, tomorrow thursday ?
Usul
(09/01/2004; 13:06:42 MDT - Msg ID: 124124)
Girlie-men
The Girlie-men shall inherit the earth.

Sound-bites designed to hook the ear can not make up for economic reality. No amount of jaw-boning will compensate for the structural weaknesses, such as vulnerability to the price of oil for energy, a gross dependence on imported goods, and a huge mountain of debt.

By putting off the inevitable economic pullback, they only make things worse... those are the "true crimes".
misetich
(09/01/2004; 13:08:35 MDT - Msg ID: 124125)
US economy - The beat goes on - down the downward path
http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml;jsessionid=NNGPOU1VX4SRSCRBAEOCFFA?type=businessNews&storyID=6126789Headline and snips

U.S. Factory Growth Eases

Snip:

The new orders component of the ISM index dropped to 61.2 from 64.7 in July,......................

..........The ISM employment index dropped to 55.7 in August from 57.3 in July,..................

.............Soaring energy prices in August pushed the ISM prices paid component to a three-month peak of 81.5 from 77.0,..................
..............."Another pressing concern in the industrial sector is the worsening trade imbalance," Meckstroth said. "The ISM report confirms a disturbing deceleration in exports while imports growth remains at a high level.
..................

AUTO INDUSTRY

To help cut inventories of unsold cars and trucks, Ford said it would produce 830,000 vehicles in the fourth quarter compared with 900,000 in the same quarter a year ago.
...............

The 2004 Oil Shock And Awe

Oil Jumps $2 as U.S. Crude Stocks Slide


The EIA said world crude production was running at about 99 percent of capacity, spelling continued high prices into the foreseeable future.
*************
Misetich

The trend of the past several months continues - decelerating growth - declining consumers spending and overheat sectors (materials) military needs, inflaming price inflation

Some jobs are being created in some sectors - supplying MINE OPERATIONS EQUIPMENT- whilst hirings are mainly DOWN across almost all other sectors

Telecommunications are still continuing to layoff employees -
Operations costs are RISING

As The 2004 Oil Shock And Awe gathers momentum - it is expected to at least stay in the $40-60 range up to election time - its effects will be devastating to energy depended industries and the collateral damage (consumers, corporate earngings) will be much higher than expected or currently priced in the market

Given the funds repatration (JAPAN) as their fiscal year end (Sept 30) rolls around - some fireworks can be expected in the currency markets

Gold is waiting for the go ahead this coming Friday....

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
USAGOLD Daily Market Report
(09/01/2004; 13:32:12 MDT - Msg ID: 124126)
Page Update!
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Daily Gold Market Report has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.

---closing market excerpts---

Gold futures closed lower Wednesday with U.S. manufacturing and construction spending data coming in generally as expected, providing some support for the dollar and the stock market, luring investors away from the precious metals.

Gold for December delivery fell $1.60 to close at $410.80 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

The August ISM manufacturing index, reported this morning, was at 59 percent, a little below economists' expectations of 59.8 percent and down from 62 percent in July. Spending on U.S. construction projects increased 0.4 percent, as expected, in July, the Commerce Department estimated. The dollar reclaimed lost ground against most of its major currency rivals following the data.

---(see url for access to full news, 24-hr newswire)----
misetich
(09/01/2004; 15:31:51 MDT - Msg ID: 124127)
Reality Check: U.S. Recruiters Report Modest August Jobs Rebound Sep 1 / 9:52 EDT
http://www.economeister.com/reg/popup/popup_frameset.jsp?banner=mainwire&disp=single_story&sn=1&ts=1094046720000Snip:

NEW YORK (MktNews) - The job market saw a modest uplift in August after a two-month lull, but the upswing was capped by a resolute focus on productivity gains, the shift of service and manufacturing jobs overseas and rising health care costs, staffing executives say.

Elections and economic uncertainties made the August rebound all the more tenuous, but that sense of reluctance also works to the benefit of temporary staffing firms, which got a good bounce because they provide labor on a just-in-time, commitment-free basis.
.......................
Doherty blames the reluctance to hire full-time on high costs of health care
.....................
"The temporary employment sector accounts for a good portion of the jobs being created, which portends continuing stability for the employment picture overall," he said. "The majority of the companies we support are adding staff, albeit cautiously, to stay just ahead of demand."
......................
**************
Misetich

The lack of job creation forces the Fed to PRINT FEDERAL NOTES ad nauseum, providing the launching base for the Gold Bull Express - PHASE lll (between $600-$1,500 US)

As the employment base deteriorates further, it continues the most hated vicious self-reinforcing cycle - an accommodative Fed, which joins Japans Inc. in printing fiat ad infinitum - accelerating US budget deficit, increase in commodity prices as funds flow toward China - increasing price inflation in the US and the rest of the world - keeping oil prices high due to demand - reducing consumer spending in the US and reducing corporate earnings

The Feds have been unable to fireup the economy since 2001, though massive stimuli has been applied

What next?

A currency devaluation - read US $ from 20-40% is within the realm -

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
mikal
(09/01/2004; 17:54:54 MDT - Msg ID: 124128)
@misetich, Belgium
Misetich- The US dollar may indeed devalue "20% to 40%".
I myself think that it should somehow be restructured as soon as possible to alleviate and address the ongoing damage to entrepreneurship and small towns in this country, especially agriculture and basic manufacturing like textiles.
But I have come to a slow awareness that POG is
largely independent of the dollar. Though POG-short term-
APPEARS differently.
Just as POO (crude oil)is lately an obsession with some to the exclusion of all else. Like terrorism and the Iraq war,
not a reliable predictive tool as many have seen. Still, many will lose sight of all else if the dollar loses support
and/or the euro soars, for example. The dollar cannot fall forever nor the euro rise this way.
Very likely, the US$ will vacillate under paper trades before reaching a bottom, unless derivatives are deployed as "weapons of mass destruction".
By contrast, gold can and likely will continue to seek higher levels... until it's uniquely venerable and long-neglected and abused market(incl. gold's fundamentals, investors, producers, etc.) and has been vindicated and fulfilled.
PRITCHO
(09/01/2004; 21:25:52 MDT - Msg ID: 124129)
The TRUTH on 9/11 & OIL - - An address by Michael Rupert at The Commonwealth Club
http://www.fromthewilderness.com/PDF/Commonwealth.pdfThis is compelling reading -- A pdf download that comes across as factual,honest & disturbing.It backs up what Black Blade has said about the coming crisis in OIL - the reason for the fiction about the 9/11 attacks. I would suggest keeping an open mind - it's hard to believe that humans could think up & execute such a murderous plot --but here it is & backed up with evidence.

The first half + deals with Govt lies & deceit dealing with 9/11 & the 2nd half deals with the facts re OIL.

Snip: (Its printed in caps for an easier read)

"TO THE GENERAL PUBLIC AS WELL AS TO THE 9/11 RESEARCH
COMMUNITY, THE MYSTERIOUS AND INEXPLICABLE FAILURE OF THE
NATION�S AIR DEFENSES THAT DAY REMAINS THE MOST GLARING AND
GAPING HOLE IN THE KEAN COMMISSION�S ACCOUNT AND IN THE
GOVERNMENT�S VERSION OF EVENTS. SCRAMBLING FIGHTER
AIRCRAFT WAS A ROUTINE OCCURRENCE FOR YEARS BEFORE 9/11.

THE ASSOCIATED PRESS HAS TOLD US THAT FIGHTER AIRCRAFT WERE
SCRAMBLED AND FLYING BESIDE ERRANT COMMERCIAL AND PRIVATE
AIR TRAFFIC WITHIN MINUTES OF THE SLIGHTEST DEVIATION SOME 67 TIMES IN THE CALENDAR YEAR PRECEDING JUNE 1 2001. THIS IS ONE OF MANY AREAS WHERE THE KEAN COMMISSION NOT ONLY FAILED TO LOOK BUT ACTUALLY ALTERED EVIDENCE IN THE PREPARATION OF ITS FINAL REPORT."

Re OIL -- SNIP:
DISCOVERIES OF LARGE OIL DEPOSITS HAVE BEEN IN STEEP DECLINE SINCE 1962. DEMAND, ON THE OTHER HAND, HAS BEEN SOARING.TO QUOTE MY ENERGY EDITOR DALE ALLEN PFEIFFER, A GEOLOGIST:

IT APPEARS THAT THE YEAR 2007 WILL BE IMPORTANT. A NEW STUDY PUBLISHED IN PETROLEUM REVIEW SUGGESTS THAT PRODUCTION MIGHT NOT BE ABLE TO KEEP UP WITH DEMAND BY 2007. THE STUDY IS A SURVEY OF MEGA PROJECTS (THOSE WITH RESERVES OF OVER 500 MILLION BARRELS) AND THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE OVER 100,000 BARRELS PER DAY OF OIL). MEGA PROJECTS ARE IMPORTANT NOT ONLY BECAUSE THEY PROVIDE THE BULK OF WORLD OIL PRODUCTION,BUT ALSO BECAUSE THEY HAVE A BETTER NET ENERGY PROFILE THAN SMALLER PROJECTS, AND THEY PROVIDE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL PROFIT THAN SMALLER PROJECTS.
BEAR IN MIND THAT THE PLANET CONSUMES A BILLION BARRELS OF OIL(OR TWO MEGA FIELDS) EVERY ELEVEN AND ONE HALF DAYS."
Belgian
(09/01/2004; 23:58:39 MDT - Msg ID: 124130)
@ Mikal & Pritcho
Oil will be allowed to - "back" - Gold, by the majority of the globe's non dollar factions. Backing yellow Gold with black gold (and a new � numeraire), means nothing less than taking away the dollar's reserve status...wich the dollar doesn't merit anymore for such a long time already. The dollar got off Gold, completely. The euro will connect with Gold.

This is something completely different than saying that the dollar will decline 30%...40%...in exchange rate or purchasing power. Another round of shorting the dollar with Another round of goldprice rise, is not on the order anymore. Shorting the dollar is the same as giving it some more credibility for some more time. Unfortunately, it is time out for the dollar in its function (and use) as the planet's monetary reserve. This is much better understood by those, outside America, who have (had) to live with the dollar as "reserve" ! Bear in mind that the dollar has NO reserves !!!

You will NOT hear anything about the whole 9/11 affair and its ongoing aftermath, from non Americans. It is up to the American people to deal with this 9/11 event, themselves. Strictly an internal affair. You certainly guess WHY this has evolved as such.

Crude oil has become a crucial, International matter of utmost importance, as never before in its entire relatively short history. GOLD is moving towards the epicenter of this ongoing drama of changing power-balances. Americans are going to demand the whole truth about 9/11 + as did many other people for other major events in the past.

Interventionist manipulations of all kinds, always take an end when people stop accepting the charades and demand the truth. So will the whole truth about Gold come up...later, after the changes are culminating towards more visibility.
See how, today...many observers are confused (lost) about the seemingly inconsistant events (facts).
This confusion is cultivated by those who really know the directional moves. They constantly are "immunizing" everything they can as to hide the brutal realities of dramatic increasing global "unstability".

The globe is driving itself to connect back to the old anchors that are being modernized. The (outgoing) dollar faction is the staunchest opposition to this reality.

The many interventionist manipulations have reached alarming levels and evidence herewith how serious the global unstability is growing. *Extreme* distortions of valuations (financial-economical) cannot last for ever. These anomalies have to unwind and at the same time take away the reasons why we reached those extremes. This is a pure dollar matter !

And it is exactly because there still are enough oilreserves, that we landed into this oil mess that will NOT go away up until some dollar-fundamentals (reserve status) have been changed.

The Belgian lilliputans don't even think about what happened to the Belgian goldreserves. The very, very... few
who dared to investigate this...meet a huge wall. Evidence for the utmost importance of the affair, especially during this period of "change". The purposely infantilized masses must sing, dance and applaud. Interferences of the masses are disturbing to the outlined plans. There is a cosmic amount of evidence for this at present.

In the mean time, those who do wish to conclude their wealth, big or small, do accumulate PHYSICAL GOLD,...in absolute silence and discretion...


Usul
(09/02/2004; 00:59:41 MDT - Msg ID: 124131)
Oil
If oil isn't due to decline until 2007, why should we worry now? Speculators, and those prepared to build up reserves, are thinking ahead and contributing to the rising trend that has seen oil futures recently reach prices that have not been seen since their trading began. Those are the people that they try to convince with their stories of promises of increased production, repaired pipelines, successes against insurgents, and oil magically replenished from the deep as if it were magma (in which case, why aren't there oil volcanoes when tectonic plate movements squeeze the material from the depths up towards the surface?)
968
(09/02/2004; 01:07:07 MDT - Msg ID: 124132)
Japan-Iran oil project.
Japan rejects US call to pull out of Iranian oil project

21-08-04 Japan does not intend to abandon a commitment to help develop an oilfield in Iran because of a US request that Japan reconsider its policy, according to Japanese Trade Minister Shoichi Nakagawa.
"There will be no policy reversal at the current stage," Nakagawa was quoted as saying. US Secretary of State Colin Powell said Japan should reconsider its energy investments in Iran. The US claims Iran's enriched uranium program is intended to develop nuclear weapons, while Iran says it needs the fuel for power plants being built to meet the country's booming demand for electricity.
Japan will stay in close contact with the US in proceeding with its February agreement to develop Iran's Azadegan oilfield and in dealing with that country's suspected development of nuclear weapons, Nakagawa said.
Source: PetroEnergy Information Network
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Japan helps develop an oilfield in the Axis of Evil.
Belgian
(09/02/2004; 01:14:12 MDT - Msg ID: 124133)
Global Economic Order (GEO)...as seen by C. Droke (GE)
I do like this particular meritable view of optimistic contrarian realism. Everything is based on the view that the present (and future) $-POO rise is only...a blip that the GEO can "manage". Great example of linear thinking.
Confetti has been printed in the past and will continue to be printed in the present and future. Let's civilize and integrate some remaining medievals and get on with the GEO's goals !?

The $-POO will come down (relax) and once the Dow spikes through 10,200...to da moon with the entire global economy !?

I doubt very strongly that a global "majority" is happy with this GEO outlook and leave alternatives for this GEO out of question !!!-???

The dollar exchange rate...the dollarprice of oil and Gold will tell us how the chances of the GEO are evolving.
More thoughts on this, anyone ?
968
(09/02/2004; 01:16:36 MDT - Msg ID: 124134)
Russian oil.
Russian authorities show new interest in oil companies
By Marina Pustilnik
21-08-04 The Russian authorities spearheaded by the Natural Resources Ministry decided to establish a very tight control over the country's oil companies and their activities. Whether they do this for the common good or for their own profit seems unclear.
It started in June with a threat of a license withdrawal for a number of large oil fields which are not being developed in accordance with licensing agreements. Then a few weeks ago the oil companies were given a month to prepare new licensing agreements that would stipulate such things as volumes of proposed extraction.
Furthermore, on August 12, the Natural Resources Ministry launched a campaign to investigate all oil companies on suspicions of underreporting their oil production figures. These three consecutive steps follow a logical pattern and show that the government is set on carrying out a certain re-distribution of wealth between the oil companies and the state budget.
On June 16 Russia's Natural Resource Minister Yuri Trutnev announced that his agency will closely examine ten large oil and gas fields which at present are not being developed despite the licensing agreements. Trutnev explained that by doing this the Ministry wants to impede the monopoly of large oil and gas companies which buy licenses just to eliminate smaller competitors.
After securing the license the companies fail to actually develop the deposits. Among the companies that were up for examination were such majors as TNK-BP, Gazprom, Rosneft, LUKoil, Yukos, Surgutneftegaz, Shell and ExxonMobil. The Ministry threatened to withdraw licenses if the companies do not present objective conditions and hurdles which prevent them from starting development and extraction on time.
Actually, the measure was a necessary one, because it has been long discussed that riding the wave of high world oil prices, Russian companies were putting all their money into further extraction on the already existing sites, instead of thinking a little bit ahead into the future. Almost no money and labour were put into exploration and development, and in this view the government's move can definitely be considered as a good thing.
At the same time the Ministry's spokesman admitted that from now on the authorities plan to tightly control the use of the country's natural resources in contrast to the wild 1990s when licenses were granted and bought and the state washed its hands of any further responsibility.
Then on August 3 President Putin met with Minister Trutnev to discuss new government policies in granting mining and extraction licenses to oil companies. To show that the authorities try to be objective, Putin said that the most important thing about granting licenses is to avoid "preferential treatment to any company that is extracting natural resources".
But the most important topic of the discussion was the state control over the usage of deposit fields for which licenses had already been granted. Inadvertently placing the blame on his predecessor, the Natural Resources Minister said that over the last four years licenses have been given out with virtually no strings attached.
"There were no conditions, stipulating when the deposits have to come into operation, no substantial rights that the state receives in exchange for granting licenses," said Trutnev.
The Minister also cited data which showed that if the companies actually begin to operate the licensed fields, the size of Russia's oil deposits would grow by 20 %. The oil companies won't even have to invest in exploration, they would simply have to "unfreeze" the already known deposits, said Trutnev.
The authorities decided that it is time to act decisively on the matter and announced their demand that all of the companies re-draft the already signed licensing agreements and submit new versions within a month. The new agreements have to clearly stipulate when the deposit will be placed into operation and what are the volumes of proposed extraction on each site.
Having declared the solution to the problem of undeveloped oil fields, the government moved on to its next goal, which is re-distribution of wealth between the super rich oil companies and the state budget. The Natural Resources Ministry voiced its suspicion that oil companies underreport their production figures in order to lower their natural resource extraction taxes.
"The Ministry doubts that oil production figures declared by the companies are accurate," a ministry source was quoted as saying on August 12. "Most likely, what they declare is lower than the actual figures."
As a result, the Natural Resources Ministry, along with the Interior Ministry and the Federal Security Service (FSB), launched an investigation that will audit the total volume of oil transported inside Russia. The figures of oil exported abroad are already accurate, said the ministry source, so it remains to be found whether any "surplus" oil is to be found in domestic deliveries.
Along with the dramatically increased oil export tariffs that came into effect on August 1, all of the above measures fall into a pattern which has as its goal a visible re-distribution of wealth between the oil companies and the state budget. The government shows that the years of wild capitalism, when the authorities paid virtually no attention to the excessive profits of oil companies, as long as the government officials got their share, are over.
Concentrating on the oil producers, which are still the most profitable enterprises in the Russian economy, the government declares, at least on paper, that the oil companies have to pay for the development and growth of the rest of the economy and for the well being of the people.
The oil companies, the authorities explain, have to pay higher taxes in order to offset decreases in unified social taxes and value added tax. They have to pay for the years of opulence that they enjoyed, riding the wave of high oil prices. They have to pay, finally, for the right to use the country's natural resources that belong to all of the country's citizens.
The rhetoric and logic of such statements are very populist at their core, but they don't lack conviction. The only problem is that there is no proof that the new campaign has these noble goals as its one and only reason for being.
The events of recent months make too many people see the basic re-distribution of wealth between the old and the new political elite as the real reason behind this crackdown on the oil industry. There is virtually no guarantee that the money that will be received by the state budget as a result of the introduction of new game rules will actually be used to finance social welfare programs or to provide government support to other sectors. If the government wanted to make the oil companies share their wealth, it could come up with other ways to do that.
Economic incentives for those who invest in exploration and development and create new jobs, would be one. Tax breaks for those who invest part of their profits in other sectors of the economy, where Russia has a possible competitive edge, would be another. Clearly defined parameters of "social responsibility" that is now demanded from businesses, would also be useful.
That way the oil magnates would spend their money on real charity, such as educational projects, instead of buying Faberge eggs, which are good for prestige, but have absolutely no use for young people, who lack a chance to receive good education and to become the foundation of future economic growth. Unfortunately all of this seems to be no more than wishful thinking.
Source: The Moscow News
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Russian "nationalisation" of oil reserves continues.
Cfr. Chirac's and Schr�ders visit this week.
Belgian
(09/02/2004; 01:35:25 MDT - Msg ID: 124135)
OILLLLLLL....
In the past...it was rather easy for the dollar and its supporters to control the flow, price and settlement of the world's crude. Today, this evidency has changed dramatically...from "easy" to less easy (evident) !

It is against this changing background that oil's threath to back GOLD must be seen. When oil revalues GOLD...the dollar has to compromise on its main force named, reserve-status.

This puts Japan into an impossible position as an (strong) holder (absorber) of abundantly printed (GEO) dollar-reserves.

Let us watch if a higher (rising) goldprice(s) result in lower oilprice(s) !!! Oil backing GOLD ...and breaking the dollar allies one by one !? Another GEO...than the (Atlantic) one, projected by Droke ?
968
(09/02/2004; 01:48:32 MDT - Msg ID: 124136)
@ Belgian
Goodmorning in the sunny Antwerp.
I don't understand your statement about oil backing gold.
The $-POG will rise due to dollar depreciation against the �. The dollar will depreciate due to the twin deficits, Bernankes helicopter money,... If the dollar depreciates, the $-POO will rise. In your previous post you say the $-POO is made for 99% politically. How will the rising POG lower the political POO ?
Oil can back gold only in a �-denominated world, but even then the �-POO will be managed politically.
Belgian
(09/02/2004; 01:50:31 MDT - Msg ID: 124137)
@968
When you add Sudanese oil and the Chinese/French involvement overthere to the Russian story...it must become very clear to the general public that there is something Biiiiiiiiiiig...globally, going on with oil...oil-control...oil-pricing !!!
A goldprice explosion of nuclear force, shouldn't surprise us at all. Don't let it take you by surprise without having anticipated it as much as your understanding allows to.
Thanks for your contributions, 968.
Belgian
(09/02/2004; 02:15:57 MDT - Msg ID: 124138)
@986
The answers are to be found in the 1998 thoughts of ANOTHER !!! Re-study them, mate...without an excuse for delay. And more importantly...check those early '98 thoughts (CPM-archives), delivered (elaborately) on a golden plate, with the realities of today, wich you are detecting... describing...analysing.

After decades of Gold-containment under different forms...*GOLD BACKERS* are at work !!! Value for Value instead of Value for nothing ! As conservative as can be. Watch how this debate (the change-conservatism) is growing in lilliputan land, Belgium.

Enjoy the september sun whilst having fun with studying ANOTHER. ( Doe het op een bank in de stad aan de stroom).
968
(09/02/2004; 02:31:51 MDT - Msg ID: 124139)
French goldsale
Has anyone noticed there is a radio silence about the French goldsale ? Yesterday I saw on Bloomberg that the French Goverment is going to sell France Telecom........to reduce the budget deficits to meet the European Stability Pact !!!! Adieu French goldsale !!!
968
(09/02/2004; 02:33:48 MDT - Msg ID: 124140)
@ Belgian
I will study them again (op een Limburgs terrasje) !
Belgian
(09/02/2004; 04:08:22 MDT - Msg ID: 124141)
Oilprice...oil pricing...
Why should the different(!!!) oil-states on this globe invest in present and future oil output !? For what reason...return, do have these oil states to deplete their black gold at a faster pace ...!?

The global economy is hooked on the permanent dollar-over-expansion as to grow and push the enormous debtbergs in front of them. Cheap and abundant flow of oil is the basic driver for this to be possible. The different oilstates are NOT getting enough in return for their contribution to global growth. The depleting Oil gets ever more $-confetti (reserves) whilst the Big profits are made by those who make the debts and print the confetti against that debt.

In short : We arrived at a point where the real Value of oil, in the global economic context, is dramatically undervalued and will remain so for as long as more $-confetti is printed to artificially expand the world's economy.

As a result ...Oil slows down its investment, exploration and oil-flow to the absolute minimum...in a contracting economy, where dollar expansion, fiscal and monetary measures do not resort satisfactory effects.

Oil goes in search for an equal value. All the major oilstates are NOT participating in the prosperity (development) that the global economy is supposed to bring. The oilstates start to realise this on a broad(er) scale.
The dollar-world is still trying to convince the different oilstates that co-operative oil will be beneficial to them under the dollar regime. The facts say otherwise. And most oilstates can only conclude that the oil wealth is plundered...looted...wasted.

Not surprisingly, much of the different oilreserves are uniting under this common conclusion and starts to search for other solutions (cfr. 986 posting on Russian oil).

What substantial incentive(s) (not promesses) can be offered to the different oilstates to restart exploration and full throttle pumping... ?

All the existing rewards are seemingly NOT working anymore !? Will "force" do the trick !?

Are you prepared to offer the concept of FREEGOLD in exchange for oil backing Gold and oil becoming as valuable as Gold in a prosperous-peacefull world !?
Belgian
(09/02/2004; 04:38:40 MDT - Msg ID: 124142)
@968 (not 986)
The different (!!!) Euroland goldsales are very convenient (side-effect) for not being accused of collaborating with cruel oil (cfr. R. G.)...wanting to back GOLD !!! Did you see the female Saudi official representative on the olympic ceremonies in Athens, when the flag was passed to the Chinese...did you catch the symbolic significance of all this ?
Euroland always was and still is... PRO GOLD ! Let's hook our common currency onto it and invite the dollar to join.
No big deal. Let's pay for oil for what it is really worth. Let's invite others to do also (Gold dinar) and stop (diminish) all terror, everywhere. We all live only once.

At present, a very limiting factor on Euroland economy (and monetary actions) is the fact that Germany needs growth that can only come from export outside the EU and is function of the dollar-printing-engine. That's why the euro cannot steam ahead versus the dollar. Might explain the uneasing calm on forex (cfr.Mundell-Germany).

Must go now and listen to Jean Claude.
misetich
(09/02/2004; 05:07:19 MDT - Msg ID: 124143)
GM, Ford Cut Output After Weak Sales
http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=6129136&pageNumber=1Snip:

GM and Ford, struggling with excess inventories of unsold cars and trucks, set targets for fourth-quarter vehicle production in North America that were 6.8 percent and 7.8 percent below year-ago levels, respectively.
.................
"I think the market was taken aback" by the Ford and GM production cuts, said David Littmann, chief economist at Comerica Bank. "I think they thought these production cuts were more than expected."
.................
"We're starting to see a slowdown," said Jim Sourges, vice president with the automotive practice at consultants Capgemini. "I think there are going to be deals on the table for the consumer, as the inventory sits there, and they have to move that metal."
*************
Misetich

Thte auto industry remains one of the pillars of employment in the US -

Production cut-backs higher than expected by "experts" does not bode well for the employment picture

A combination of reduced working hours, less OT, and rotational "temporary layoffs" are to be expected - adding up to further reducing consumer spending

...and in light of declining economic performance the Feds are in a box of having to increase IR

What a mess....exactly the type of mess gold thrives on...

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
misetich
(09/02/2004; 05:28:59 MDT - Msg ID: 124144)
3 Major Airlines Try to Fly Above Financial Failure
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A54510-2004Sep1.htmlSnip:

Three of the nation's largest airlines could be operating under bankruptcy protection in coming weeks, analysts say, the latest sign of the industry's upheaval as it lurches through a historic transformation.
................
All three airlines are locked in contentious talks with employees in a bid to lower costs by reducing pay and benefits or eliminating jobs outright.
................
*************
Misetich

The transportation industry is the first casualty of The 2004 Oil Shock And Awe...

As oil prices remain firmer and longer than expected the damaging effects are going to multiply

Central bankers flood of liquidity in recent years is stoking the fires - and little else can be expected from these egoistical mercenaries - other than more fiat printing, setting the stage for the final hyperinflation blowout, as "they" battle trying to avoid Asset Deflation

All Aboard The Gold Bull Expess - Part ll
Toolie
(09/02/2004; 06:17:49 MDT - Msg ID: 124145)
There's battle lines being drawn.
As Sir Misetich mentions, the big 3 are still major employer in the USA. Throughout the recession, production has been kept high with incentives. UAW labor is a near fixed cost. So, in order to cut costs there has been much engineering shipped to India and abroad. A lot of foreign labor brought here, stingy spending on new equipment. And, great pressure on suppliers to provide more for less. I believe that we near a flash point, here are two headlines from today's Detroit News.

Zetsche to suppliers: 'Adapt or die'
http://www.detnews.com/2004/autosinsider/0409/02/c01-261614.htm

Engineers at Ford unit vote for UAW
http://www.detnews.com/2004/autosinsider/0409/02/c01-261615.htm

Zetsche's (DCX) comments remind me of comments made by US Trade representative Zollick, when he told Brazil that if they didn't want to be part of the free trade of Americas agreement, that they were free to trade with Antarctica. They are inflammatory comments in an already hostile relationship.

Ford recently had to halt production in Georgia, due to unidentified part shortages. Ford has been demanding that suppliers provide, in addition to parts, the technical know how to make such parts. Problem is that the big three have a nasty reputation of shopping around a supplier's designs for lower prices.

Engineers at the big three are vastly non-union, and the UAW vote was one of the last thing the big three wanted to see. I expect more of it.

The big three have been pulling costs out of all aspects of the business, and it has just about reached its elastic limit.
Druid
(09/02/2004; 08:33:38 MDT - Msg ID: 124146)
Putin And The Geopolitics Of Oil
http://www.prudentbear.com/internationalperspective.asp"When the Afghan conflict is over, we will not leave Central Asia. We have long-term plans and interests in this region."
� Elizabeth Jones, US Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian affairs



Vladimir Putin's image in the West as a "stand up guy" (to use a favourite "Bushism") has taken a pounding over the past year. Who is the Russian President? Is he a visceral KGB nationalist, violently opposed to American economic and political interests? Is he a recidivist Soviet-style communist only now revealing his true colours by launching an all-out attack on Russia's most Western-investor friendly oil company, Yukos? Or can his actions be explained as essentially defensive and reactive in response to growing American meddling in areas of traditional Russian spheres of influence?



Although Russia has experienced unprecedented liberal economic reform and stability under Putin, this has been more recently offset by concerns that his actions against Yukos, the embattled oil group, could spread to threaten private business more broadly. Whilst there is a danger that President Putin has unleashed a veritable Pandora's Box of extreme Russian nationalist forces of which he may ultimately lose control, it seems more rational to regard recent measures taken in respect of Russia's oil sector as a purely defensive counterthrust to the foreign policy posture of the Bush Administration (a corollary of the latter's increasingly unsustainable economic adventurism). Distilled to its bare essentials, the United States no longer produces enough of what the world wants (goods and services), so it is going to war to monopolize control of what the world needs (i.e., the supply of oil). If true, this is a formula for perpetual war; the Russian President's actions, therefore, take on a much less arbitrary and offensive character.



However benignly George Bush appears to regard Mr Putin since his famous gaze into the latter's eyes (and, by extension, his soul, according to the US President), things look a bit different from the Kremlin's perspective. As Chalmers Johnson has effectively explained in his book The Sorrows of Empire, from 1945 on, the United States pursued an imperial policy based on the military base rather than the colony. The US has set up its bases around the globe - little Americas, so to speak - in other countries, got extraterritorial rights for its troops, and with its economic power at its back and close ties with local elites, gone about its global business. This method of operating has clearly become less constrained since the break-up of the old Soviet Union and the concomitant diminution of Cold War tensions.



Clearly, one hugely important aspect of this imperial impulse has been oil. For all of the varying rationales provided to justify its increasing militarism � the search for weapons of mass destruction, the Cold War, the more recent global "war against terror", regime change and the spread of liberal democracy � the one consistent thread in American foreign policy during the entire post-World War II period is the politics of crude. The Bush Administration's conduct reflects a variant on this theme: it has chosen to address the problem that it does not make enough of what the rest of the world wants essentially by going to war to monopolise control of the supply and distribution of what the world needs, petroleum. There are other war aims, of course, but control of the global hydrocarbon net is certainly of paramount importance. As SRA strategist Chris Sanders notes: "Control of oil is essential to enforcing that acceptance since, the conceit of the financial markets notwithstanding, economic growth is first a function of energy availability, not interest rates."



But what is sauce for the goose is clearly also sauce for the gander. Consider the following points made by analyst, David Chapman of Union Securities:



"The former Russian satellite of Georgia has become a potential battleground between the USA and Russia. The US backed a coup in Georgia under the auspices of the war on terrorism. Georgia is strategically located. The prize here is a pipeline that would connect the oil fields of Baku in Azerbaijan to Western markets through the Mediterranean. But the Russians were long established in Georgia and continue to maintain a military presence much to the chagrin of the now US government and the US backed Georgian government. Russia's hands are being seen in the ongoing conflict with the breakaway provinces of Abkhazia and South Ossetia where rebels are fighting US backed Georgian forces. They stand in the way of the pipeline.

There is a strong US military presence in the former Russian satellites of Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan and other states in the �arc of instability� in the Caucasus. Again at stake here are the oil interests surrounding the Caspian Sea."

***********************************

Druid: Excellent read on Russia's 'new' role in world politics.
Gandalf the White
(09/02/2004; 09:52:49 MDT - Msg ID: 124147)
Have a HAPPY HOLIDAY everyone, AND "not to worry" ---
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=$GOLD,PLTB[PA][DA][F!3!!]⪯f=GThe GOLD P&F chart (see LINK) is gaining strength and the chant is now:
416. 416. 416. and then, "TO THE MOON, Alice !"
<;-)
Clink!
(09/02/2004; 10:02:19 MDT - Msg ID: 124148)
@ Belgium - I humbly disagree
Yesterday, you said, "Americans are going to demand the whole truth about 9/11 + as did many other people for other major events in the past."
Sadly, I don't believe that to be the case. You can take similar situations in the past, such as Pearl Harbor and the Kennedy assassination where there were extensive official investigations which then spawned a long series of conspiracy theory ideas. Why ? Because there were key elements of the official story which did not hold up to intensive subsequent scrutiny, but no-one in officialdom said "We have found inconsistencies and therefore we have to suspect that all the report is inaccurate or even a fabrication, and we will just have to reopen the case." Ain't gonna happen.
There are many items which just seem too, uhmm, coincidental to be a coincidence. For Pearl Harbor, it just seems too 'fortunate' that the entire outdated (dispensible ? (heck ! now you've got me using parenthesis !)) part of the fleet was OREDERED to stay in port, while the most useful - ALL the carriers - were ORDERED away to the South, the direction away from the Japanese fleet. In Dallas, who ORDERED the motorcade to be driving so much slower than the standing Secret Service rules dictated ?
In our own little world of gold price manipulation, there are a whole host of facts which refute the 'official' position (free and open market) but we will probably never know the whole truth. Why not ? Because there are people in power - real power, such that they don't have to worry about pesky things like elections - who simply don't want the truth to be told. And as "History is always written by the victors", that will always remain the case, at least until the people involved, or rather, their power groups, are dead and buried.
C!
misetich
(09/02/2004; 10:03:39 MDT - Msg ID: 124149)
Retail Sales Slow; Wal-Mart Cuts Forecast
http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml;jsessionid=QQCQ2SNEMMRTGCRBAE0CFEY?type=businessNews&storyID=6136331Snip:

CHICAGO (Reuters) - U.S. retailers reported worse-than-expected August sales on Thursday and Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT.N: Quote, Profile, Research) scaled back its financial forecasts as soaring fuel prices cut into back-to-school spending.

The poor retail sales figures -- which came one day after top U.S. automakers posted weaker sales and announced production cuts -- deepened worries about consumer spending and the overall health of the U.S. economy.
..................
Analysts had expected a lackluster August performance because last year's sales were inflated by child tax credits, but results from Wal-Mart, Sears, Roebuck and Co. (S.N: Quote, Profile, Research) , Limited Brands Inc. (LTD.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST.O: Quote, Profile, Research) were even worse than expected.
...............
"People are not spending money," he said. "They are intimidated by the (economic) outlook."
.................
***************
Misetich

The 2004 Oil Shock And Awe was not expected by manipulative central bankers whose egos and bravado are being to test by Mr. Market

It is the forces of the market vs the forces of alleged evil interventionist and manipulators

The showdown is upon us - as oil prices create havoc amongst unprepared industrialized nations - EU is somewhat buffered due to the strength of the Euro - however US and Japan economies both, have experienced bubblemania markets, have to deal with the continuing unravelling

With the passage of time their previous reckless actions are being put to the ultimate test

As growth continues to slow, central bankers will inevitably do what they do best - print fiat

The 2004 Oil Shock And Awe is fericious unlike the late 80's but reminiscent of the 70's - the parameter are way different than the 70's - the shocks and tremors this time around make $850 gold look pale

More oil woes....

Snip:

Russian Oil Giant Warns of Output Cut

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russian oil major YUKOS again warned on Thursday that it may be forced to cut output after saying that a Moscow court ruled this week that $2.6 billion of company funds could be seized by the authorities.

The warning is another in a series of moves by the oil major to put pressure on state officials in a complex tax dispute that has also helped push global oil prices to peak levels in the past weeks on concerns of supply disruptions from Russia, the world's number two oil exporter.

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml;jsessionid=QQCQ2SNEMMRTGCRBAE0CFEY?type=businessNews&storyID=6136884

End of snip

Those that expect oil prices to drop anytime soon are delusional -

Gold/oil ratio will adjust accordingly as reality sets in

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
968
(09/02/2004; 10:20:55 MDT - Msg ID: 124150)
Russian oil.
Oil and gas is fuelling Russia's return to superpower status
17-08-04 Russia is again emerging as a superpower -- but the reason has less to do with nuclear weapons than with oil. The country has its swagger back as its economy expands for the fourth consecutive year and the world price of oil hovers at more than $ 46 a barrel.
The second-largest oil producer behind Saudi Arabia, Russia has positioned itself as an important alternative supplier to the unstable Middle East.
The Kremlin's protracted battle with its largest producer and exporter of crude oil, Yukos, has raised doubts among some skittish traders about the reliability of Russian supplies and helped drive up prices in unusually tight global oil markets. The Yukos affair began last October when the government arrested Mikhail Khodorkovsky, the company's founder.
People in the industry are split on whether Yukos will survive in its current form, but they are almost unanimous in dismissing concerns about Russia's commitment to remain an oil-exporting superpower. They, and the government, point out that even amid the toing and froing over Yukos, Russia's oil production has not dropped by a single barrel.
Officially, Khodorkovsky was detained on tax and fraud charges, though there has been speculation that the arrest may have been retribution for his support of political parties opposed to President Vladimir Putin. Industry and Energy Minister Viktor Khristenko has taken pains to publicly give the reassurance that the Yukos situation would not disrupt exports.
"Production is growing steadily," he told the President.
For the first seven months of this year, Russia produced about 2 bn barrels of oil, and the year's total should be 3.3 bn barrels, he said. Last year, Russia produced 3.07 bn barrels.
The Kremlin is unlikely to let Russian exports drop significantly as a result of its fight with Khodorkovsky, industry executives and analysts said. For one thing, Russia can produce more oil than it has the pipelines to export, so any dip in Yukos' production could be made up elsewhere.
Also, high prices are letting Russia reap windfall profits from oil sales. And, the Kremlin is unlikely to risk the international censure that turning off Yukos' taps would generate.
Mr Christopher Weafer, chief strategist at Alfa Bank here, said: "The Kremlin wouldn't jeopardise its position in the global economy by what would be nothing short of an act of global economic terrorism."
In some ways, the Kremlin itself may have been surprised by the effect of its Yukos prosecution on the oil market.
"Russia has become a decisive force in the world oil market in a way it hasn't been since the beginning of the 1960s, when its exports stimulated the birth of OPEC," said Mr Daniel Yergin, chairman of Cambridge Energy Research. Over the next decade, production from Russia and the Caspian will increase as much as that in the Middle East, he projected.
"Russia is big-time. A superpower when it comes to oil and gas," he said.
Source: Straits Times
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
More : this is a new superpower in the eurozone.
TownCrier
(09/02/2004; 11:05:35 MDT - Msg ID: 124151)
Adding new waves of cash ($24.5 billion) as easy as keystrokes
http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.htmlToday as the market in overnight fed funds was trading in line with the latest FOMC policy target (1.50 percent) the Fed's trading desk nonetheless pursued a course of open market intervention to make easy money more easy and abundant among the nation's commercial banking system.

Through a round of 14-day repurchase agreements the Fed injected $15 billion fresh money into the reserves of the banking system at a rate softer than the FOMC target.

An additional $9.5 billion was then added to round out the day's affairs through overnight repos to a bidder at 1.53 collateralized by Treasuries.


So much money, so little to actually DO (purchase-wise) with it... except tap your foot along with the high-kicking chorus line dancing to the tune of the new sensational stage tune, "Inflation, Inflation!"

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Arcticfox
(09/02/2004; 12:44:03 MDT - Msg ID: 124152)
Amazing..
Mike Bolser:

Hi Bill:
The Federal Reserve today added $4.25B in temps today September1rst 2004, an action that caused the repo pool to stay very high at $57.012B. There are two MAJOR events in today's brief commentary:

First, the Fed has an enormous expiration of $24.5Billion set for tomorrow that nicely coincides with the peak of the Republican Convention and my long expected launch date for a DOW recovery. The massive expiration means that the Fed will issue a similar amount of repos in the AM, leaving around $50B in intra-day repos added to the EXISTING repo pool of $57Billion Thus we may see an intra-day total of over $100Billion available for primary dealer actions. I will let you decide if this mountain of money is just a coincidence.

Arcticfox
(09/02/2004; 12:47:38 MDT - Msg ID: 124153)
Fed needs to get the DOW to close above 10250..
We shall see..but remember what they say about fighting the fed on the short term..lets here it for "managed markets"..
TownCrier
(09/02/2004; 12:49:08 MDT - Msg ID: 124154)
ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet's press conference
http://www.ecb.int/press/pressconf/2004/html/is040902.en.htmlExcerpts from opening statement following meeting of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank in which the key policy rate (minimum bid on main refinancing) remained unchanged at 2.00%, 50 basis points higher than the the U.S. Federal Reserve's key rate of 1.50%.

In speaking of the present ECB ease in monetary policy, one can't help but be reminded how much softer is the Fed policy.

Trichet:
"...At present, our judgement is that although some upside risks to price stability exist, the overall prospects remain in line with price stability over the medium term. Accordingly, we have retained our monetary policy stance and left the key ECB interest rates unchanged. The level of interest rates is very low by historical standards, both in nominal and in real terms, lending support to economic activity...... Looking ahead, the conditions for a continuation of the recovery remain in place. ... On the domestic side, investment should benefit from the positive global environment and the very favourable financing conditions."

Also,

"The low level of interest rates also seems to be fuelling the growth of loans to the private sector, which has risen to a relatively robust rate over recent months. In this respect, the growth rate of mortgage loans to households is rather high and is associated with fairly dynamic housing market developments and real estate prices in several euro area countries.

"There remains substantially more liquidity in the euro area than is needed to finance non-inflationary growth. At present, it is not clear how this excess liquidity will be used in the future. If significant parts of these liquid holdings were to be transformed into transaction balances, particularly at a time when confidence and economic activity were strengthening, inflationary risks would rise. In addition, high excess liquidity and strong credit growth could become a source for strong asset price increases."

How often (meaning seldom) do we ever hear this from Fed Chairman Greenspan -- except when assuring Congress that policy is, indeed, accommodative?

Elsewhere, Trichet takes what appears to be a generally conciliatory stance toward the price of oil overall, especially vis a vis the euro.

Trichet:
"Another downside risk to the growth projections relates to oil prices. If these were to remain higher than currently expected by markets, this could dampen both foreign and domestic demand.

"In assessing these risks, however, it should be taken into account that, when expressed in euro, the recent rise in oil prices has been significantly smaller than in previous episodes when oil price increases had a major impact on the world economy.

"In addition, in real terms, oil prices are significantly below the peaks they have reached in the past. Moreover, when compared with the 1970s and 1980s, the oil intensity of production in the euro area and elsewhere has fallen significantly.

"Finally, it should be kept in mind that, in contrast to previous periods of oil price turmoil, this year's rise in oil prices is not only due to supply-side factors, but is also driven by the strong global expansion. All these factors put the downside risks to economic activity coming from oil prices into perspective."


As for the alternate dollar perspective? On either side, choose gold.

R.
Belgian
(09/02/2004; 13:35:46 MDT - Msg ID: 124155)
@Clink - @ 968
Clink : I agree that the matter is more subtle than I've stated. But very often, 2 generations (50 yrs) after the facts (lies)...the truth starts to live a DISCRETE life on its own amongst the populace. But truths are often very brutal and are handled (shared) with a certain amount of shame and ever living doubts. Always the same question : was it for the common good and therefore justified to serve a matter of higher order !?
We will live through this same process when the goldprice breaks free from its organized containment for so many decades. Maybe one day we will understand much better what this period was all about !?

968 : Russia produces almost as much as Saudi Arabia : 10 million barrils per day or the equivalent of approximately 40 tonnes of Gold (per day) at today's goldprice.
Putin's present attitude is heavily critizised by the US and labelled as very irresponsible. The Yukos saga is blaimed for the persistent high POO and judged as severely destabilizing the fragile global economy.
At the same time, Trichet isn't worried at all with the present �-POO (europrice !) and sees no reason to do something about this fenomenon. Possible indication that the euro and oil have something in common. Confirmed by Chirac/Shroder visit at Putin's. The exclusion of Russia and France from Irak has a price.
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(09/02/2004; 14:51:07 MDT - Msg ID: 124156)
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USAGOLD Daily Market Report
(09/02/2004; 16:24:21 MDT - Msg ID: 124157)
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The Daily Gold Market Report has beenupdated.

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----Closing market excerpts-----

COMEX gold fell on Thursday, shrugging off a jump in weekly jobless claims as traders took profits before Friday's U.S. employment report and its early close ahead of the U.S. Labor Day holiday on Monday.

"The dollar should have reacted a little bit more negatively to this morning's jobs data. The dollar remained pretty much steady. As a result gold and silver managed to stay under a little pressure," said James Quinn, commodities commentator at A.G. Edwards.

"Tomorrow's going to be a big influence on the dollar and depending on which way it heads you are probably going to get a decent move in gold and silver," Quinn said.

December gold settled off $2.80 at $408.00, trading from $411.20 to $407.80.

With conditions expected to be thinner than usual Friday ahead of the long weekend, dealers said the market could be in store for a choppy ride that could bring into view targets such as $402 and $400 to the downside and $412 and $415 to the upside.

"There's a chance we could see a pretty big move on Friday because of the fact that we're getting a major economic reading, it's after a potential terrorist-targeted event is over, and is before a long weekend so it's an unusual situation," said a precious metals analyst with a largeU.S. commission house.

However, with physical demand reportedly strong out of India and parts of the Middle East, and geopolitical tensions expected to remain high through to the November U.S. presidential elections, any sustained spates of gold price weakness are expected to the viewed by many as a buying opportunity.

The unemployment rate is seen staying at 5.5 percent. Friday's COMEX trade will then wrap up around noon (1600 GMT) and the exchange will not reopen until Tuesday.

----(see url for access to full news, 24-hr newswire)----
Boilermaker
(09/02/2004; 17:00:15 MDT - Msg ID: 124158)
ArcticFox/Mike Bolser
I've been following Mike Bolser's efforts to interpret the FED's repo market activity as a guide to what's happening in the Stock Market. To recap briefly for others at the forum, he's basically been analysing how repo's affect the SM and suggesting that the the FED is orchestrating the repo music to support its political SM objectives.
I've been somewhat skeptical of this concept/relationship that Mike's been tracking but today's repo vs. SM action was a strong piece of evidence in his favor.
It seems that Mike may have found the key to the FED's black box and is revealing the contents to the world. At the start this will reinforce the cause and effect of the FED repo actions. In the long run, like the gold suppression efforts, it will blow up and destroy a lot of innocent investors.
LeSin
(09/02/2004; 17:16:53 MDT - Msg ID: 124159)
OIL - RUSSIA - EUROPE - IRAQ - EXCLUSION = HIGH PRICE

MR BELGIAN -

"The exclusion of Russia and France from Irak has a price."

Sir, once again to the head of the class.

Yukos and its talking heads, like all the Russian Oligarchs
that head leading resource rich companines, have all been bought and paid for by USA Oil & Bank interests.

Cheers - "S"


Black Blade
(09/02/2004; 19:21:05 MDT - Msg ID: 124160)
Russia and Yukos - Oil Production Decline

The problem for Yukos is that the chairman Mikhail Khodorkovsky got involved in the country's politics. There exists a policy that the Russian oligarchs would refrain from involvement in Russian politics which he violated by supporting an opponent of Prez Vladmir Putin. Obviously he being made an example of. Another point is that taxation, laws, and regulations in Russia are rather arbitrary, often taxes exceed a companies realized profits among other bizarre events (remember PAAS getting ripped off by the Russian courts a few years ago?).

Coming soon, Russian oil supply will drop as the Baltic Sea freezes and heavy winter fogs slow southern routes out of the Black Sea region. This could slow exports and production by as much as 3 million bbl/day for several weeks. The Yukos bankruptcy/nationalization only aggravates the oil production and export problem.

Still, we could see more problems ahead for oil as most any event is possible - Venezuela, West Africa, and of course the Middle East (for now particularly Iraq). For now watch the clock and get prepared (unlike some Floridans lining up for essentials as hurricane Frances bears down). This includes financial preparation with a firm foundation of some hard assets like precious metals to fill out a well balanced portfolio.

- Black Blade
Gandalf the White
(09/02/2004; 23:23:24 MDT - Msg ID: 124161)
SHHHHHHHHHHHHHH ----SPIKE just awakened !
http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/en/detail/_pages/charts/main.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1&sTimeframe=iD&useSettings=0&showSettings=&sid=&hiddenTimeFrame=&sOrdType=price&sScale=linear&sMarket=GLD.FX1&iType=1&sAv1=na&sAvfree1=&sAv2=200&sAv2free2=&sAv2count=1&iInd0=na&sBench1=na&sBenchcount=1&sBench2=&sBench2count=1&showBenchmarkSearch=&iInd1=2&iInd2=na&iIndcount=1&sSettings=naJUMP SPOT, JUMP!
Will Friday COMEX be a GOLDEN DAY?
<;-)
Gandalf the White
(09/02/2004; 23:37:27 MDT - Msg ID: 124162)
AND, here is one to close out the evening !
in The BangkokPost Friday
---
GOLD
by SUJINTANA HEMTASILPA
Regulation to require 96.5% purity

Standard regulations for gold traders will require them to market gold ornaments with 96.5% gold content only, starting next month.

The Gold Traders Association and the Office of the Consumer Protection Board (OCPB) will jointly enforce the new standard.

Anuwat Dharamadhaj, the OCPB secretary-general, said authorities had received complaints from consumers for years that a number of local gold traders had been distributing gold ornaments with gold content between 91% and 94%.

The OCPB, he said, had been unable to enforce the 96.5% standard in the past because of a lack of co-operation from gold traders.

Association president Jitti Tangsithpakdi said he believed standardisation would result in higher gold consumption in the domestic market. It would also enhance international trust in Thai gold products.

According to Mr Jitti, a steady rise in gold prices had prompted consumers to shy away from local gold shops.

Local demand was estimated to have shrunk by up to 60%, causing billions of baht worth of damage to the industry.

Mr Anuwat said that starting on Oct 1, traders selling ornaments with less than 96.5% gold content would face up to six months' imprisonment and/or a fine of 50,000 baht.
---
That should do it ! Have you seen pictures of the prisons ? (and 50K Baht is more than US$1,000.)
<;-)
misetich
(09/03/2004; 04:10:33 MDT - Msg ID: 124163)
Voracious growth puts China in a power crunch
http://www.usatoday.com/money/world/2004-09-01-china-energy_x.htmSnip:

But as factories in hard-hit areas turn to noisy, diesel-fed generators to produce power, they're exacerbating another of China's economic vulnerabilities: its dependence upon foreign oil. Beijing is expected this year to import about 2.4 million barrels of oil per day, twice as much as in 2001.

China's surging imports are still a fraction of the nearly 10 million barrels a day that the USA imports. But this ravenous economy is far less energy efficient than the USA's. So China's economic growth already is a major factor in higher global oil prices.

About one-quarter of the past year's growth in imports was fuel for industrial generators, according to Scott Roberts of Cambridge Energy Research Associates' Beijing office.

"The number of small and medium-sized enterprises moving to generators is enormous," says Andy Rothman of CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets in Shanghai. "One of the reasons oil imports have accelerated is to feed that."
.....................
**************
Misetich

China's oil consumption is rising by the minute, almost faster than the US Debt To The Penny which is ....drum roll, please......

09/01/2004 $7,354,611,427,274.47

a whopping increase of $571 billion over a year ago

China's growth in automobiles sales, are also ANOTHER reason for the unsatiable oil demand.

The hard landing most expected is not materializing - as growth continues at a brisk 8-9% GDP annually

The market is just beginning to REALIZE, oil prices are not coming down any time soon, and its impact is far greater than the "good news spinmasters" have been predicting (hoping)

Asset Deflation is the unspoken fear.

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
misetich
(09/03/2004; 07:21:01 MDT - Msg ID: 124164)
USE SPR TO CAP OIL AT $40 NOW!
http://www.cm1.prusec.com/yardweb.nsf/(YardeniHome)?OpenAgentIf the price of a barrel of crude soon rises to $50 that would be bad news for the U.S. economy and the stock market. However, such a high price would provide a tremendous
incentive to find a solution to the problem:
.......................
Terrorists are no longer local and national. They are multinational. One of their main targets is the global economy, which is especially vulnerable to oil supply disruptions and high energy costs. So terrorists have repeatedly attacked the easiest target, i.e., the Iraqi oil
pipeline. They killed foreign oil workers in Saudi Arabia a few months ago in an effort to curtail Saudi output.
.......................
A few weeks ago, on June 30, Robert Baer joined me in a telephone conference call to discuss "How Unstable Is Saudi Arabia?" Mr. Baer, a former CIA agent and the author of "The Fall of the House of Saud" (Atlantic, May 2003), discussed the perils of our dependence on Saudi Arabia and its precious supply of fuel. He also believes that there are numerous weak links in the Saudi production lines. They are highly protected, but if they are hit by terrorists the damage could take at least several months to repair.1
Of course, there has always been political instability in oil producing countries. So is the longterm
scarcity premium simply a terrorism premium reflecting concerns that the bad guys might soon succeed in seriously disrupting global oil supplies? I don't think so. As a matter of fact,
................
The main conclusion of all three is that China's demand for crude oil is likely to grow at a rapid pace as auto sales boom. The Chinese are building a superhighway system which is expected to be almost as large as the one in the United States by 2020. The Chinese have four times the
population of the United States but use about one quarter as much crude oil. They are absolutely desperate for oil and other energy sources, and the producers know it.
..............
Mr. Baer is also the author of Sleeping With the Devil, How Washington Sold Our Soul for Saudi Crude. A
replay of my conference call with Mr. Baer is available at
http://www.cm1.prusec.com/yardweb.nsf/WeeklyAudioForum?readform
***************
Misetich

After the "managed labor news" back to reality...

Dr. Yardeni is concerned the current oil price spike will lead to a recession and more importantly a correction in the stock market

"Market managers" are attempting to buy time - retreating and attempting to hold the line - in the meanwhile economic reality is ready to overwhelm

Each attempt to "manage the markets" puts them deeper in the hole- post-poning the inevitable rout

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
misetich
(09/03/2004; 08:47:09 MDT - Msg ID: 124165)
U.S. Services Growth Slower in August
http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml;jsessionid=V4JAIB5RCRXP0CRBAE0CFFA?type=businessNews&storyID=6147027Snip:

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Growth in the vast U.S. services sector slowed in August although managers seemed more willing to hire new workers, according to an industry survey published on Friday.

The Institute for Supply Management's non-manufacturing index declined to 58.2 in August, its lowest level this year, from 64.8 in July and well short of Wall Street estimates of 62.8.
..................
The ISM survey's employment index edged up to 52.5 in August from 50.0, while demand for new orders decreased markedly, easing to 58.6 from 66.4. The prices paid index fell to 70.0 from 73.1.
****************
Misetich

BLS labor numbers released earlier today contradict almost every anectodal report published pointing to a slowing US economy

BLS "managed employment number" accomplished its task - that of avoiding a US $ rout - though the counterattack on gold appears weak, as physical demand is on the rise

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
USAGOLD Daily Market Report
(09/03/2004; 11:11:48 MDT - Msg ID: 124166)
Page Update!
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Daily Gold Market Report has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.

---closing market excerpts---

Upbeat data on U.S. job growth in August provided some support for the dollar... U.S job growth snapped back in August after two disappointing months, as non-farm payrolls climbed by 144,000, the Labor Department estimated Friday. The unemployment rate fell 0.1 percentage point to 5.4 percent, the lowest rate since October 2001.

The dollar rallied in the wake of a U.S. jobs report that most analysts say all but cements a U.S. interest-rate hike this month.

Overall, "the latest employment numbers should be a net neutral for gold," said Peter Grandich, editor of The Grandich Letter, an investment advisory publication.

The "technical and fundamental picture for gold hasn't been this good in 20 years, and a $500 gold price in the next 12 months is a legitimate target," said Grandich...

Gold for December delivery fell $6.70 to trade at $401.30 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It traded earlier as low as $401, a level not see since August 16...

Ned Schmidt, editor of Value View Gold Report, an investment publication of Schmidt Management, said Friday's session is "illiquid" due to the Labor Day weekend, so "any dips below $400 should be bought."

"Deluded Wall Street economists did not forecast lull in economy and now think they can forecast resurgence," he said, concluding that "whenever data confirms nothing and markets react, investors should be moving in to buy."

---(see url for access to full news, 24-hr newswire)---
Druid
(09/03/2004; 11:25:35 MDT - Msg ID: 124167)
Mexicans rally in support of mayor
http://www.gulf-news.com/Articles/World2.asp?ArticleID=130512Mexico City: Mexico City's leftist mayor led about 200,000 demonstrators in a march Sunday to protest efforts to impeach him, using the event to unveil a 2006 presidential platform that goes back to Mexico's old values of nationalism and an oil-based, state-supported economy.

Protesters brought in by hundreds of buses from nearby states mingled with local supporters of Mayor Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, a leading contender in the 2006 race who critics liken to Hugo Chavez, the populist president of Venezuela.

While Lopez Obrador denies any similitude to the one-time Venezuelan coup leader, he rallied his followers with fighting words, saying he represented "los de abajo," roughly "the underdogs," the title of a famous novel about peasant rebels in Mexico's 1910 Revolution.

While stopping short of declaring his candidacy, Lopez Obrador laid out a campaign platform that envisions a return to a more self-sufficient, oil-based economy and a re-negotiation of part of the public debt, measures Mexico tried two decades ago.

"We have to recover the best of Mexican history, that's where Mexico's character is," Lopez Obrador told a cheering crowd, noting that "much of the country's future development" depends on the state-owned oil sector.

"We should return to the policy of state support that has been practically eliminated by free-market policies. We have to support industry," he said.

Lopez Obrador also said he would ask largely foreign-owned banks to give back some of the $70 billion bank bailout carried out after the 1994 peso crisis. Much of Lopez Obrador's speech � "we favour a responsible, productive private sector with social commitment" � sounded strikingly like the 1970s rhetoric of the former ruling party.

Lopez Obrador has stoked class passions, saying prior to the march "the ones on top aren't going to come. They just dine and drink fine wines, and make decisions that hurt the little guy."
****************************************

Druid: Winds of change right at our back door.
Belgian
(09/04/2004; 02:48:47 MDT - Msg ID: 124168)
Nobelprice winners, Economy ...gathering in Germany.
These chaps are unanomous on one thing : We...the dollar-addicts, are acting very smartly under the leadership of Sir Greengodspan ! We...the dollar expanders, are not making those same old mistakes...!

BUT AREN'T WE MAKING A BIG NEW MISTAKE...I was whispering to myself ?

Trichet has been hinting that he will watch very closely that the euro expansion (5%) will NOT flow into unproductive financial plays...read interventionist manipulations of financial order...as is happening, ad nauseum, with the dollar competitor.

What an incredible dilemma for the whole world : The artificial gigantic dollar-engine, pulling us all into a cosmic mis-management of epic proportions !
This collective blindness is increasingly becoming "bon ton" ...everywhere !

The Nobel-pricewinners, don't even see a possible breaking point, other than the classical neglectable catastrophic imponderabile...asteroids...WWIII...etc.
What a general complacency.

It is against this generally very complacent background that... oil backing Gold... instead of oil further backing the dollar...might be the big...breaking... surprise !?
Oil is the global terror-thing, isn't it !?


The Invisible Hand
(09/04/2004; 03:31:44 MDT - Msg ID: 124169)
Meneer Belgique
You are writing
It is against this generally very complacent background that... oil backing Gold... instead of oil further backing the dollar...might be the big...breaking... surprise !?
Oil is the global terror-thing, isn't it !?

I understand that the dollar c.q. the euro can be backed by oil and/or Gold.
But why, and how, should/could Gold by backed by oil?
Isn't gold no longer a physical substance which has value in itself?
Belgian
(09/04/2004; 07:39:31 MDT - Msg ID: 124170)
@TIH
The intrinsic VALUE of GOLD needs to be expressed, soit through a numeraire that wishes to parallel (be associated with) to Gold or through Another Valuable tangible that through barter expresses the Value of the Gold Wealth.
Real Value needs a FREE market as to be able to "express" itself.

The dollar paper is intrinsically worthless (paper) ...but when universally being used as intermediair numeraire for oil trade settlement...that dollar-paper has the backing of oil (an indispensable valuable).

The more it becomes clearer that abundant flows of cheap oil are not so evident anymore...oil will be more broadly valued ! Worth to make war for it. Once oil sees less and less reasons to support (back) the dollar...oil will shift "openly" towards Gold and back it (through demand for Gold) as to create the new market for Physical Gold in association with the Gold-friendly �-numeraire.

Isn't it very remarkable that the media do report on Gold affairs when they relate them with India-China-Russia-Argentina-EU goldsales...etc... BUT NEVER EVER IN RELATION WITH OIL !!!

WHY...WHY does the REAL VALUE of GOLD isn't allowed to be properly expressed in sharp contrast with the many obscene over-valuations of today !!!??? WHY exactly that one and only particular yellow metal !

De-paperize Gold and the consequent *Physical* Goldmarket will automatically bring Gold's value to the surface...and make its VALUE *visible* for all...AGAIN !

But for the time being...only a "fixed" obscenely low price is to be shown for the Valuable as to keep Another Valuable, namely oil,...serving the global economy. That was ...WAS... OK for oil, for the past 7 decades. The biggest future consumer for oil is China. Why is it that China has turned towards GOLD in a public and official way !? Because in the very nearby future...no Gold will mean...no ***CHEAP*** oil !

Since oil still gets dollars wich aren't as good as Gold anymore...oil switched to the alternative of taking in, cheap Gold...stealthly. This period will also (is running) run to its end and all the cheaply stored Gold of the past waits patiently for is REAL VALUATION to be shown. This must happen through the establishment of a FreeGold Physical market, before the remaining oil-reserves lose their power. Again a reason to make war for oil(control). And more precisely a war that would bring victory to the numeraire that is (was) backed by the globe's most fundamental essential...CRUEL OIL !

(Ben ik er van den eerste zit door Profke ?)
Belgian
(09/04/2004; 08:05:05 MDT - Msg ID: 124171)
More for TIH...
WHY is it that the world's biggest stockmarket is supported at any cost of monetary expansion !? A relatively stable and reliable stockmarket is also an element in the backing of the dollar in its status as world's reserve currency. We are dealing here with a $ multi-Trillion affair on a global scale! Idem dito for the dollar (bond) debt that is 10 times bigger than the US stockmarket !!! Can you imagine the blow that the dollar should suffer, if and when the stockmarket + the bondmarket should collapse !!!??? That's WHY the dollar MUST and shall print itself into complete exhaustion.

The real value-holders know this and have already been anticipating the inevitable disastrous end ...with the stealth accumulation of obscene cheap Gold that at the same time served the survival of the dollar system !!!

When the general support (backing) of the dollar declines and stops...for whatever reason...the present reasons for war, will be no more. Then there will come plain vanilla ,"visible", Gold-(currency)-wars (mercantilism cfr. C.K Liu-AOL).

WHY is it that we landed in the "Good - Bad - Ugly", story on such a broad scale !? Imvho, not for "ideological" reasons.



USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(09/04/2004; 08:32:00 MDT - Msg ID: 124172)
Hard assets, easy access! (click, click... and the gold is yours!)
http://www.usagold.com/buy-gold-coins.html

gold -- a global calling card
TownCrier
(09/04/2004; 09:28:05 MDT - Msg ID: 124173)
Just slightly dated, still worth a current look...
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/FA10Dj01.html(Excerpts from Henry C K Liu's January 2004 commentary):

"At a meeting of the American Economic Association in San Diego on January 3 of the new year, Greenspan spoke on "Risk and Uncertainty in Monetary Policy", in which he asserted that Fed policies had been correct and successful in handling the bubble economy. He defended himself against criticism, saying policymakers would have damaged the economy in the late 1990s had they tried to prevent or later puncture that era's speculative stock market bubble. ........a very peculiar topic, one that would be expected from the risk manager of commercial bank or a hedge fund, not a central banker whose job presumably is to ensure systemic stability by eliminating rather than managing, and therefore accepting systemic risk."


"In the 1987 crash when the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) dropped 22.6 percent in one day (October 19) on volume of 608 million shares, six times the normal volume then (current normal daily volume is about 1.6 billion shares), the US Federal Reserve under its newly installed chairman, Alan Greenspan, with merely nine weeks in the powerful post, flooded the banking system with new reserves.

"He accomplished this by having the Fed Open Market Committee (FOMC) buy massive quantities of government securities from the market, and announced the next day that the Fed would 'serve as liquidity to support the economic and financial system'.

"He created US$12 billion of new bank reserves by buying up government securities. The $12 billion injection of high-power money in one day caused the Fed Funds rate to fall by three-quarters of a point and halted the financial panic, though it did not cure the financial problem.

"If the government had been running a balanced budget in previous times and there were no government notes outstanding to be bought, the economy would have seized up, rather than merely falling into a recession. This shows that government deficits and sovereign debt are part and parcel of the modern financial architecture.

"Greenspan built his reputation by his release of a single-sentence statement that said he would supply all the liquidity the banking system needed to stay afloat during the 1987 crash. He pumped billions of US dollars, a fiat currency that he could print at will, into US financial institutions by pushing down the overnight lending rate aggressively. Greenspan's move flooded financial markets with money, which helped preserve liquidity and restore confidence in the US financial system, but it started the bubble economy of the 1990s, which ended in Asia on July 2, 1997.

"Greenspan, in essence, did the same thing in 1998 and again after the terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001. Greenspan will go down in history as the central banker who revived moral hazard, a fatal virus in any banking system.

"There is nothing wrong with deficit financing to keep the economy humming by smoothing out conventional business cycles. But providing liquidity to keep an undisciplined banking system afloat is another matter. It is an indulgence that the Fed itself has been criticizing the Bank of Japan (BOJ) for doing. The trouble is that the Fed under Greenspan thinks the banking system is the whole economy, or at least the part that really counts, and that the banking system should be or can be helped by risking the fundamentals of the economy. Greenspan is a permissive regulator who encourages systemic risk as an engine of growth by offering to bail out financial excesses that translate into unsustainable systemic risk. "

Greenspan said:
'the crash in October 1987 was far more traumatic than any of the possible scenarios we had identified. Previous planning was only marginally useful in that episode. We operated essentially in a crisis mode, responding with an immediate and massive injection of liquidity to help stabilize highly volatile financial markets. However, most of our stabilization efforts were directed at keeping the payments system functioning and markets open. The concern over the possible fallout on economic activity from so sharp a stock price decline kept us easing into early 1988. But the economy weathered that shock reasonably well, and our easing extended perhaps longer than hindsight has indicated was necessary.'

"Far from being an emergency shot of whisky to calm nerves, Greenspan's reaction to 1987 turned the market into an alcoholic craving the free flow of money. His longer-than-necessary monetary easing was directly responsible for the debt bubble decade of the 1990s, from which the global economy has yet to recover. The short deep crash and short mild recovery scenario has continued into 2004 in a long term downward spiral."


"Experts note that each financial crisis is unique, which probably is true in detail. But there is one thing all financial crises have in common, and that is they are all caused by excesses. ... Regulators are put in a position of "if I don't smoke, someone else will." That has been the attitude of Greenspan on derivative trading by US banks. He argues in congressional testimony that regulating derivative trading would only force them offshore and the US economy would lose the benefit without reducing the risk. He takes the position that the Fed can act as a last-resort insurer to prevent a systemic meltdown, and he has since then done it several times.

"Yet the US system prospers by living on the edge through the maximization and socialization of risk, thus building-in failure or collapse that hurts not just the willing risk takers, but the general public that has been put into risky situations it cannot afford - by the sales talk of sophisticated risk management. Part of that sales talk has been coming from Greenspan at the Fed."


"The alleged "recovery" of the stock market in 2003 - with the DJIA rising by 25 percent from its low in March, the Nasdaq rising a phenomenal 50 percent, the S&P 500 rising 26 percent and the Russell 2000 rising 45 percent - is tempered by the dollar falling 20 percent against the euro, 10 percent against the yen despite BOJ intervention, and a whopping 34 percent against the Australian dollar on rising demand on gold, iron ore and other commodities produced there."


"As for productivity, the productivity boom in the US was as much a mirage as the money that drove the apparent boom. There was no productivity boom in the US in the last two decades of the 20th century; there was an import boom that came with productivity fallouts. What's more, this boom was driven not by the spectacular growth of the American economy; it was driven by debt borrowed from the low-wage countries producing this wealth. The acceleration of productivity was accomplished by someone else doing the producing without getting proper credit for it."


"Greenspan went on to lecture about the wisdom of managing the consequences of risk:
'The Federal Reserve's experiences over the past two decades make it clear that uncertainty is not just a pervasive feature of the monetary policy landscape; it is the defining characteristic of that landscape...As a consequence, the conduct of monetary policy in the US has come to involve, at its core, crucial elements of risk management...'

"One gets the impression from Greenspan's speech that the greatest threat to the US is not terrorism, but unmanageable risk to the economy that he permits by policy. There is another problem of Greenspan relying on macroeconomic modeling of reality. Most model builders assume reality to be rational and orderly. In fact, life is full of misinformation, errors of judgment, miscalculations, communication breakdowns, ill will, legalized fraud, unwarranted optimism, prematurely throwing in the towel, etc. One view of the business world is that it is a snake pit. Very few economic models reflect that perspective.

"Still, a question needs to be asked: if Greenspan is aware that knowledge about many of the important linkages of key macroeconomic relationship is far from complete, where is the wisdom in flirting with excessive risk?

"...according to Greenspan, keeping asset prices high and product prices low is now the sworn aim of the central bank."


"The Bush administration welcomes the dollar's decline, which may boost sales and manufacturing jobs in an election year. US exchange rate policy is set by the administration rather than the central bank on the ground that it is an issue of national security.

"U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow told Bloomberg News last month that the currency's drop had been "orderly". While he and Bush regularly endorse a "strong dollar", they say they want markets, not governments, to set exchange rates. Markets, however, are seldom orderly."

"Bernanke said during a panel discussion at the American Economics Association meeting: 'The depth of international financial markets and the integration of global financial markets means that the risk of a dollar crisis is quite low - not zero - but quite low.'

"The day before, Greenspan gave all kinds of examples of how low probability-high impact events should be pre-empted by the Fed, even if this pre-emption should create imbalance further down the road. It is a price the Fed is on record as being willing to pay and has gladly paid in the past. Now the options are either a continuing fall of the dollar or higher interest rates to choke off the recovery. A run on the dollar may be a low probability event, but it surely will be a high impact event, much more than the impact of the anemic recovery by higher interest rates. The Fed may not have the option to wait until after the election in November."

-------(see url for full text)-----

Although these selected flavorful excerpts are quite extensive, the full commentary is many times longer and worth the sitting-through if you wish to digest the full dollarization meal.

R.
mikal
(09/04/2004; 13:01:26 MDT - Msg ID: 124174)
Price inflation? Whussat?
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/09/03/health/main641067.shtmlRecord Hike In Medicare Costs - September 3, 2004�17:21:04
"Medicare premiums for doctor's visits will rise by 17% next year..."
The Invisible Hand
(09/04/2004; 17:39:46 MDT - Msg ID: 124175)
Meneer Belqique
Your msg#: 124170 showed that I didn't see that before there was money, there was barter, Now, there's no more money (little euro has not even achieved puberty or has it?), so we go back to barter.
I had to look deeply in your msg#: 124171 to find oil referred to, but I found it in this sentence "When the general support (backing) of the dollar declines and stops...for whatever reason...THE PRESENT REASONS FOR WAR, WILL BE NO MORE. (emphasis mine)" So after the war (both wars?), no more dollar and no more oil, only GOLD and EURO. Or will the euro rejuvenate oil production in Iraq? Euro backed with gold, so that's barter again?
Perhaps, it's not so difficult to understand after all. It's only that our so-called masters try to make it look difficult.
goldquest
(09/04/2004; 21:53:39 MDT - Msg ID: 124176)
U S Near Seizing Bin Laden
http://apnews.excite.com/article/20040905/D84T7M9GO.htmlThis could disrupt the PM markets for a short time.
My guess is that Bin Laden is already in custody.
The announcement should be about the 27th of September.
They don't want to announce too soon before the election or people will loose interest. Too late, it will look like manipulation. Time will tell!
Druid
(09/04/2004; 23:58:58 MDT - Msg ID: 124177)
Move to relax euro budget rules
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/3624444.stmThe European Commission has proposed a partial relaxation of the eurozone's strict rules on public spending.
Under the proposals, eurozone countries would be allowed to run deficits above the current ceiling of 3% of GDP in the event of prolonged sluggish growth.

The change would accommodate eurozone governments which complain that the rules unfairly prevent them combating recession through higher spending.

EU finance ministers are scheduled to discuss the proposals next week.

A final decision on whether or not to adopt them is not expected until early next year.

Credibility problem

Making the budget rules more flexible would defuse a confrontation between the European Commission (EC) and some eurozone countries.

Earlier this year, EU finance ministers challenged an attempt by the EC to penalise eurozone heavyweights France and Germany for repeated breaches of the deficit ceiling.

Commentators said the dispute threatened to undermine confidence in the budget rules, set out in the Stability and Growth Pact.

"It is my firm belief that these proposals will provide for a stronger and more credible pact," Joaquin Almunia, the EU's economic and monetary affairs commissioner, said on Friday.

The Commission first signalled its intention to modify the budget rules in June this year.

The rules, designed to ensure that the 12 countries which use the euro maintain sound public finances, also prohibit governments from running up total debts worth more than 60% of GDP.

****************************************************

Druid: It seems that the politicos are really pressuring the ECB into a corner of their own. There certainly is a significant variance between 3% and 60% of GDP in terms of running a budget deficit. This situation keeps getting more interesting by the day.
TownCrier
(09/05/2004; 02:14:37 MDT - Msg ID: 124178)
Druid, on the 3% and 60% eurozone limits
Three percent pertains to ANNUAL deficit allowances. The sixty percent figure is in regard to a nation's AGGREGATE deficit.

R.
NTgeo
(09/05/2004; 04:44:32 MDT - Msg ID: 124179)
Sons of Gwalia
http://www.abc.net.au/insidebusiness/content/2004/s1192487.htmThe Inside Business show on ABC TV did a good expose of the Sons of Gwalia debacle which might interest gold buffs. It can be found at the following address :
www.abc.net.au/insidebusiness/content/2004/s1192487.htm

Basically the company failed because it could not produce enough gold to cover the hedges it had in place. Also the gold mines it was running were marginal at current gold prices and would probably have closed in the near future.
Cometose
(09/05/2004; 08:21:32 MDT - Msg ID: 124180)
McHugh
There is a reference to Gold in the Mr McHugh's current peice. His tone in this week's article specifically related to Gold is a bit more tempered.


http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/mchugh090404.html


I think the work he is doing on the other markets ad the caution he warns is very good advice.

He says that all the markets are topping it appears and that the only scenario that this fits is deflation.....

Tim Wood's article this week makes mention of the battle between Gold and the Dollar ; He says that there will be only one winner and there is no second place......

I believe that we are going to see the beginning of and encore to the stock market fall that began in 2000 soon and when that event begins to manifest itself in earnest that continued flows into the Commodity sector are going to occur like they did in the prior Stock Market Crash of 2000-2002 ..... This in turn is going to probably provide a natural Bouyancy to the Metals Markets ( the tide in this area is continuing to rise).
Smeagol
(09/05/2004; 09:43:56 MDT - Msg ID: 124181)
the dollarish Euro

From Ssir Druid's Posst:

"The European Commission has proposed a partial relaxation of the eurozone's strict rules on public spending... .eurozone countries would be allowed to run deficits above the current ceiling of 3% of GDP in the event of prolonged sluggish growth...would accommodate eurozone governments which complain that the rules unfairly prevent them combating recession through higher spending."

Isn't that one of the pillars of the Euro, to be "sslow and ssteady"? Already they try to debase it...we wonders 'where' (who) this proposal really came from...it never ceases to amaze us, the short-ssightedness and greed of ssome people.

If thiss proposal is defeated, we will know the Euro is sstill on track...if not, it will eventually be only a dollar with a different name...

S.
Smeagol
(09/05/2004; 09:57:08 MDT - Msg ID: 124182)
'Another' on paper currency and paper Gold (-mines), and oil
[Date: Sat Nov 01 1997 23:55
ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) ID#60253:

JTF:
The act being played out now is much larger than the business of "find the gold in the ground"! In the world today there are only three assets, gold, oil and currencies. The paper currencies, so long admired and accepted are now in a war of self destruction. They will consume each other in an end battle of "I'm the last man standing but have lost all use as a unit of value". Each nation state is trying to add a "kicker" or "premium" to it's trading paper as a means of buying oil. This does not mean any country will go without oil, they will have to work with "oil priced at a value rendering them uncompetitive". National stock and bond markets do not like this kind of news!

Inflation? We are not speaking of currency price inflation here. This is currency "destruction" because my national IOUs are being devalued by cheap oil supply problems!

As was said before, the real gold market that most people invest in is gone! Any gold trading paper will evaporate in the heat of fire now starting to burn. I tell you now, when the currencies are at nuclear war, GOLD WILL NOT TRADE]

S.
Druid
(09/05/2004; 10:05:42 MDT - Msg ID: 124183)
Europe is reaching crisis point
http://observer.guardian.co.uk/comment/story/0,6903,1297576,00.htmlForget America: the government should be worrying about the situations in France and Germany

Will Hutton
Sunday September 5, 2004
The Observer

With all eyes fixed on the American presidential elections, the scale of the looming crisis in France and Germany has gone largely unremarked. But it may so change the political geography of Europe that British arguments for and against the EU will be made redundant. A pervasive sense of decline in both countries, only partially justified but none the less virulent, is destabilising not just the structures of the EU - but the political systems of France and Germany.
Last week in France, charismatic finance minister Nicolas Sarkozy resigned from the government in order to challenge for the leadership of President Chirac's UMP party, despairing of what is seen in France as a do-nothing regime that is fiddling while the country burns. The economy is mired in low growth and high unemployment; government spending at 54 per cent of GDP can go no higher.

There is universal agreement that France needs decisive action to reverse economic decline; there are rancorous arguments about not just how the economy should be run and society organised but whether the constitution of the Fifth Republic works any more. The socialist opposition wants to limit the President's current powers to allow more pluralism. With two-and-half years to run until the next presidential elections, France is descending into acrimony and division.

In Germany, Gerhard Schr�der is presiding over the wreckage of the SPD, once the standard bearer of European social democracy. September sees four key state elections, including the vital election in North Rhine Westphalia, the SPD's historic heartland. Sixteen per cent behind in the polls there, its loss would be a disaster, not just for what it signals about Schr�der's standing but because it will mean control that of the German upper house will pass to the conservative CDU and make him a titular Chancellor, governing only within the parameters of what his opponents will permit.
*********************************************

Druid: Thanks TC for the clarification. I found this one to continue to supplement my previous post as to why the ECB is being forced into a corner by the major players to The Stability and Growth Pact.
Druid
(09/05/2004; 10:09:43 MDT - Msg ID: 124184)
'Less Gold'?
GOLD
?Less gold to be sold than planned?
Posted Sat, 04 Sep 2004

European central banks may sell as little as 250 tons of gold per
annum, instead of the maximum of 500 tons per annum, as per the second
European Central Bank agreement, from 2004 through to 2009, London-based UBS
analyst John Reade said in a note on Friday.

"This reduction would compensate for reduced producer dehedging and the
slowdown in physical demand that we expect ? although the signaling
impact of such a decision would be the greater than direct volume," Reade
added.

In March 2004, 15 European central banks, meeting at the Bank for
International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland, agreed to restrict their
gold sales to 500 tons a year or a total of 2500 tons from 2004 to 2009.

"If this view proves correct, we will adjust our gold price forecasts.
These currently see gold ending 2004 at $450 a troy once and peaking at
$470/oz in early 2005," he said.

"We now doubt that the renewed agreement will actually lead to an
increase in sales by central banks. Rather, we believe there is a strong
possibility that the signatory central banks could end up selling
materially less gold between 2004 and 2009 than the 2000 tons they sold under
the terms of the first (central bank) agreement," Reade stated.

********************************************

Druid: I'm still locating the link on this one. If anyone can come up with it, thanks.
Druid
(09/05/2004; 10:17:00 MDT - Msg ID: 124185)
Brussels relaxes stability pact
http://www.tehrantimes.com/Description.asp?Da=9/5/2004&Cat=9Νm=28BRUSSELS (GUARDIAN) -- The European commission Friday watered down its hardline stability and growth pact in a move that will remove one of the potential stumbling blocks to Britain joining the single currency.

Bowing to the inevitable - following persistent breaches of the rules by the eurozone's two most powerful members, Germany and France - Brussels announced plans that would make the pact less rigid.

Britain, which has argued that the inflexibility of the pact makes governments less able to cope with recessions, welcomed the proposals as a "step in the right direction" but said there was still more to do.

Although the proposals announced yesterday were designed to meet criticism from existing eurozone members, the impact will be to bring the management of fiscal policy in the 12-nation single currency area closer to that in the UK.

Gordon Brown had been sharply critical of rules designed in the mid-90s that were introduced to prevent members of the eurozone from spending beyond their means and putting pressure on the single currency. The chancellor called for reform of the pact, under which governments are supposed to keep budget deficits below 3% of GDP and work towards balancing the books.

Countries that breach the rules are liable to fines, but the pact in effect broke down when Paris and Berlin, facing rising unemployment and stagnant growth, refused to tighten the economic screw by raising taxes or cutting spending.

Both escaped disciplinary action late last year, undermining the credibility of the pact and forcing the commission into the rethink that produced yesterday's changes. These include paying greater attention to economic developments when setting deadlines for budget cuts, taking account of whether a country's debts are sustainable, and making greater allowances for the state of the economy. Finance ministers are due to discuss the proposals at the end of next week, but a final decision may not be reached until next year. We approve thousands for car finance. Getting credit has ... yescarcredit.net

A Treasury spokesman said Britain was pleased to see more account being taken of debt sustainability and the role of investment, but added that budget deficits should be assessed across the economic cycle rather than on a year-by-year basis. Reform of the pact is not one of the Treasury's five tests for entry into the euro, but Mr. Brown's belief that the pact stifles growth has been an obstacle to British membership. Romano Prodi, the European commission president, put a brave face on the climb-down. "This pact continues to be indispensable for the stability of the euro and for the health of the European economy. However ... the union's economic agenda has moved forward since the creation of the euro and efforts to maximize our growth potential are now at the centre of our economic policy consideration. The objective is to strike a better synergy between growth and fiscal discipline." He added later: "The proposals present a credible compromise between economic soundness and political realism ... between sustainable growth and sustainable public finances." However, Pervenche Beres, chairwoman of the European Parliament's economic and monetary affairs committee, criticized the changes. "I wonder whether this sort of short-term reaction to the current difficulties faced by some member states is what we need."

Gabriel Stein, an economist with Lombard Street Research in London, said the proposals made sense, but added that the reformed pact would only work if countries found it in their interests to comply. Germany and France, he said, were likely to run what the commission would consider "excessive deficits" not just this year but next. "Unless the new rules are diluted to the point of meaninglessness, they too will probably be ignored."
*********************************************************

Druid: Will the ECB stand pat? This is shaping up to be one hell of a poker hand.
Druid
(09/05/2004; 10:24:57 MDT - Msg ID: 124186)
The Stability and Growth Pact
http://europa.eu.int/comm/economy_finance/about/activities/sgp/sgp_en.htmThe Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) is the concrete EU answer to concerns on the continuation of budgetary discipline in Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). Adopted in 1997, the SGP strengthened the Treaty provisions on fiscal discipline in EMU foreseen by articles 99 and 104, and the full provisions took effect when the euro was launched on 1 January 1999.

The principal concern of the SGP was enforcing fiscal discipline as a permanent feature of EMU. Safeguarding sound government finances as a means to strengthening the conditions for price stability and for strong and sustainable growth conducive to employment creation. However, it was also recognised that the loss of the exchange rate instrument in EMU would imply a greater role for automatic fiscal stabilisers at national level to help economies adjust to asymmetric shocks, and would make it "necessary to ensure that national budgetary policies support stability oriented monetary policies". This is the rationale behind the core commitment of the SGP, i.e. to set the "� medium-term objective of budgetary positions close to balance or in surplus�" which "� will allow all Member States to deal with normal cyclical fluctuations while keeping the government deficit within the reference value of 3% of GDP".

Formally, the SGP consists of three elements as follows:
a political commitment by all parties involved in the SGP (Commission, Member States, Council) to the full and timely implementation of the budget surveillance process. These are contained in a Resolution agreed by the Amsterdam European Council of 17 June 1997. This political commitment ensures that effective peer pressure is exerted on a Member State failing to live up to its commitments.
preventive elements which through regular surveillance aim at preventing budget deficits going above the 3% reference value. To this end, Council Regulation 1466/97 reinforces the multilateral surveillance of budget positions and the co-ordination of economic policies. It foresees the submission by all Member States of stability and convergence programmes, which are examined by the Council. The Regulation foresees also the possibility to trigger the early warning mechanism in the event a significance slippage in the budgetary position of a Member State is identified.

dissuasive elements which in the event of the 3% reference value being breached, require Member States to take immediate corrective action and, if necessary, allow for the imposition of sanctions. These elements are contained in Council Regulation 1467/97 on speeding up and clarifying the implementation of the excessive deficit procedure.
Besides these legal basis, the Code of Conduct on the content and format of the stability and convergence programmes, endorsed by the ECOFIN Council on 10 July 2001, incorporates the essential elements of Council Regulation 1466/97 into guidelines to assist the Member States in drawing up their programmes. It also aims at facilitating the examination of the programmes by the Commission, the Economic and Financial Committee and the Council.

*******************************************************

Druid: I'm brushing up.
Smeagol
(09/05/2004; 10:32:56 MDT - Msg ID: 124187)
Less Gold? Any relevance here?

...ssorry, but we were, and are, reading Another in the archives, and things keep popping up that sseem to line up with today's topics...

[ Date: Sat Oct 25 1997 10:24
ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) ID#60253:

Why do the Swiss want to sell gold over many years when they could sell the entire lot in a week? Yes, the worldwide trading volume in gold could take the whole load and not drop the price below Fridays close! The reason for the "many long term selling announcements" is to keep the price down over time. The CBs would have you think that their selling would "crush the price"! The real effect would be exactly the opposite. The major world buyers would line up at the door to buy "the last sale of the century! Have you heard any CBs putting out "Proposals to Sell" for their entire stock of gold? Of course not, the response to buy would give off the absolute wrong signal and cause a revaluation of gold.

It is a far better use of a public asset when they use a small anount of it over time to ensure a reasonable price for OIL! If all gold was sold quickly, there would be no trading medium for deals! How far do you think an IOU would go if it didn't have gold in the background worth perhaps a 1,000 times it's current commodity price?

So what good is this information to the small investor? Not much if you run out and buy gold options, gold stocks, gold futures, etc.! Did you think the following quotes were good for those assets:

"That is why some "Big Traders" are holding ONLY gold as events unfold."

"One last note: No form of paper wealth will survive the financial crush once the CBs stop selling! NOTHING! "

"The market is changing now,,, it will go up but you will not be happy with the outcome."

"What is happening now is far, far larger than the interest of a few traders or mining companies. They will be stepped on!"

Gold bullion is being accumulated and cornered on a worldwide scale not seen before! UNDERSTAND THIS: The people who are buying do not expect the price to rise until the CBs slow their selling. They do expect the value of gold to increase in the future even as the banks sell into a rising market. This will happen as the sheer volume of trading completely overwhelms the entire worldwide market! The big buyers fully well expect gold to stop all trading as the governments enact DRACONIAN MEASURES to deal with a worldwide currency problem. The public in general will ask for these measures and to that effect, all paper connected to bullion will become "fair game"!

My projections and -----:

The gold market is not the same as it was in the past, so throw your charts and TA away! Nor will the gold market be the same in the future as it is today, so don't use paper substitutes! Today, gold is much more valuable than it has ever been! During your time a straight forward investment in "bullion only ' will far surpass any other asset you could hold! ]

S.
Druid
(09/05/2004; 10:39:41 MDT - Msg ID: 124188)
European Court ruling strengthens stability and growth pact
http://www.bundesregierung.de/en/Latest-News/Information-from-the-Governmen-,10157.684049/artikel/European-Court-ruling-strength.htm
The German government welcomed the decision handed down by the European Court of Justice on the excessive deficit procedure. The ruling showed that Germany did not violate the stability pact, Finance Minister Hans Eichel said. The European Court also stated that the European Council needs the cooperation of the European Commission in decisions regarding the excessive deficit procedure.



Speaking on July 13, after the decision was announced, Eichel noted that this will strengthen the stability and growth pact. "It will require the Council and the Commission to work together."

European Court ruling

The European Court annulled a decision taken by the EU council of finance ministers (Ecofin) in November 2003 to suspend measures initiated against France and Germany for violation of the excessive deficit rules laid down in the stability and growth pact.

The Commission took legal action against this decision and won the case. The European Court in Luxembourg ruled that the decision taken by Ecofin is not compatible with EU law and that the Council needs to include the Commission in decisions regarding the deficit procedure.

The European Court also ruled that the European Council has a certain amount of discretion in applying stability and growth pact rules, as exercised in its decision of November 2003.

In that decision the Council had rejected the Commission's recommendations for further budget cutbacks. That part of its decision was not affected by the court ruling.

Not directed against any one country

Chancellor Gerhard Schr�der noted that the court action was not directed against any one country but rather against the European Council as a whole, adding that any attempts to blame Finance Minister Eichel for it are misdirected.

For Eichel the decision handed down by the European Court makes it clear that the Council did not violate the stability pact and that the Commission needs to submit proposals to the Council that have majority support. This was the problem in November 2003, Eichel said.

The German government continues to support the EU stability and growth pact and the objective of bringing the budget deficit back down below the ceiling of three percent of gross domestic product by 2005.

******************************************************

Druid: This article is a bit dated but sheds some light on the direction this Pact may take.
Great Albino Bat
(09/05/2004; 10:49:05 MDT - Msg ID: 124189)
Druid: about the Stability and Growth Pact...

Thanks for posting the information about the "SGP"!

Not really worth exercising the mind on it too much. We already saw just how meaningless all those words are, when France and Germany's governments tossed the agreement out the window at the first sign of economic slowdown.

Democracy is inherently inflationary. Democracy is the world's "religion". To deny the validity of "democracy" is almost as serious an offence as was denying the existence of the gods, in ancient times.

Democracy MUST produce inflation; since governments are elected (more or less!) then those in power MUST keep the majority voting for them, and this means they have to buy their favor. Gold stocks soon run out! So, print up the money. There it is, in so few words.

Belgian is hanging on to faith in the Euro and EU and ECB, rather desperately I feel, because he wants to believe in something. He says the Euro is "gold friendly". Nice words, but, nothing but words. Well, I want to believe too, but I am waiting to see if belief is not betrayed.

I sure hope Belgian is right! I sure hope there is a plan to gently substitute the dollar for something at least temporarily better. I hope he is right about a free market for gold in the EU, when the dollar passes on.

I do not think anyone alive today, will ever see a world where paper money is strictly redeemable in gold coin, to the bearer at sight.

The only thing we can hope for, is a free market in gold where savings can find a refuge.

The US-led suppression of the price of gold is an extraordinary anomaly, a desperate effort that goes against the laws of economics and of history; an effort that is doomed to fail. Of this I am quite sure. The gold suppression is going to come to an end, sooner or later.

Gold will then have a purchasing power several times its present purchasing power - never mind the price. It's purchasing power that counts.

Get some more gold soon, it is still ridiculously CHEAP!

The GAB
Druid
(09/05/2004; 10:49:49 MDT - Msg ID: 124190)
Brussels unveils 'more intelligent' euro rules
http://www.euobserver.com/?sid=9&aid=1719103.09.2004 - 17:45 CET | By Richard Carter EUOBSERVER / BRUSSELS - Proposals to reform the EU's beleaguered economic rules were unveiled on Friday (3 September) in a bid both to restore confidence in the Stability and Growth Pact and to end the rows between member states that have dogged the Pact in recent years.

The plans are a compromise package, with elements included to please both hardline supporters of the pact in its present form - such as Austria and the Netherlands - and those that advocate a loosening of the rules, notably France and Germany.

Under the new rules countries breaking the deficit limit of three percent of GDP will now have their individual economic situations taken into account.

They will also be able to escape punishment if their economies have suffered a period of sluggish growth. At present, only a severe recession can result in member states being allowed to breach the ceiling.

But fiscal hardliners will be glad that the three percent limit remains intact and that there will be an emphasis on building up surpluses during times of economic growth to avoid deficits during downturns.

There will also be a greater emphasis on debt, rather than the current concentration on deficit, something that will please France and Germany, with relatively low debt levels (although still over the maximum permitted level) compared to Italy, whose debt is over 100 percent of GDP.

'Intelligent' pact
Presenting the proposals, Commission President Romano Prodi said that the reforms would make the rules "more intelligent", in a jocular reference to his now famous attack on the Stability and Growth Pact as "stupid".

He also emphasised the consensual nature of the proposals, saying that "the proposals present a credible compromise between economic soundness and political realism".

Echoing these words, Economics and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Joaquin Almunia described the proposals as "a trade-off between economic rationale and simplicity".

He added, "It is my firm belief that these proposals will provide for a stronger and more credible pact".

But he also agreed with current Dutch finance minister and current head of the ECOFIN council of finance ministers that the debate on reforming the pact will probably slip into the Luxembourg presidency which begins on 1 January.

"Broadly positive"
Member states were cautious in their reaction. The Dutch said that they "welcomed" the communication and that the document provided a "good basis" for discussion.

Sources from the French government were more upbeat describing the proposals as "broadly positive".

"One of the great merits is that it takes into account not only when the economic situation is bad, but also when it is good", said the diplomat.

German Finance Minister Hans Eichel said that the proposals were "what I've been calling for all along", according to AFP.

Finance Ministers will now discuss the plans at an informal meeting in the Netherlands next weekend (10-11th September).
*******************************************************

Druid: Sir Smeagol, the planets are lining up. With your latest postings from the prophets of the past correlating with the latest news, the gold bullion price might be building just a little pressure. Everybody knows the drill as Ari and many others have stated in the past, "...get you some".
Chris Powell
(09/05/2004; 11:19:11 MDT - Msg ID: 124191)
Link to story about gold sales comments by UBS' John Reade
http://business.iafrica.com/news/345466.htmDruid, this story turned up without
attribution at the South African
Internet site, IAfrica.com, here:

http://business.iafrica.com/news/345466.htm

But it is almost certainly a dispatch
from another news source, perhaps one
of the larger South African newspapers.
Reuters seemed a good suspect as well
but I couldn't find anything there.
Knallgold
(09/05/2004; 11:31:19 MDT - Msg ID: 124192)
The dollarish euro
(Smeagol (9/5/04; 09:43:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 124181)

I think FOA et al said the euro zone too will have to participate in the devaluation/inflation INITIALLY,during the transition phase.It will also coincide with Golds run upwards (in all currencies,30000$/oz,3000-6000euro/oz ).But later,the euro will become stable in Goldterms.

I think one should keep this in mind,especially if one likes to find a clue about the timing and where we stand currently.Together with the reduced tonnages of the WA2
(if confirmed) this feels like watching a rock in front of your nose and not seeing the mountain.
Smeagol
(09/05/2004; 12:12:28 MDT - Msg ID: 124193)
Yess, Ssir Knallgold...
...Another did ssay ssomething like that, let's find it here... we thinks this is one of them...

[ Date: Sat Nov 01 1997 22:43
ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) ID#60253:

Asia put an end to a sweet deal for the West! From the early 90s it was working very well. But now:

The problem with gold physical supply is very real indeed! But, there is no way that the CBs will continue to sell off an asset for it's commodity price that has many times more value as money! The talk of sales will continue for years but the real act may come to a close very soon as they try to take the LBMA off the supply hook by offering "gray paper" deals.

If they are not buying it, then: The falling markets worldwide are an early warning that the gold for oil deals are coming undone! As the big players are now heading for the exits in anticipation of exploding oil prices, the selling pressure from the CBs will quickly come off gold. The end of a parallel gold market pricing structure will leave many, many players holding nothing at all! The third world markets are the first to go as their currencies are crushed time and time again. Europe will be next, closely followed by the USA!

As for the US$ and T- bills held overseas, "they don't really exist"! ]

...but ssometimes it's good to check for rocks now and then, while enjoying the view from the Trail, sso that one does not trip! (grin)

S.
Cometose
(09/05/2004; 13:31:16 MDT - Msg ID: 124194)
Sir Smeagol on Today's "Another" references
Today's posts on Another's commentary are reminiscent to me of the your Rhyme of the Ancient Gold Mariner.

These quotes appear extremely Prescient .........helping us to continue the Waters we face in the awareness of the CONTEXT of the BIGGER PICTURE .

Thank you Sir Smeagol
misetich
(09/05/2004; 15:03:36 MDT - Msg ID: 124195)
Official: Saudis OK With Price Band Hike
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A63925-2004Sep5.html?nav=headlinesSnip:

DUBAI, Untied Arab Emirates - Saudi Arabia does not object to OPEC raising the current price band when oil-producing nations meet Sept. 15 and is negotiating the level with other oil-rich Gulf countries, a Saudi oil official said Sunday.

The current band, set at $22 to $28 per barrel, most likely will go up, the official said.
........................
The official would not say what new range was being considered. However, the London-based pan-Arab newspaper Al-Hayat quoted Qatari Oil Minister Abdullah bin Hamad Al Attiyah as saying a committee was studying raising the price band to between $28 and $30 a barrel.

"This price is fair to both consumers and producers and will help avoid fluctuations," the newspaper quoted Al Attiyah as saying.
...............
Venezuela has said it would propose an increase in the oil price range at the Sept. 15 meeting, and suggested the band be increased to between $28 and $35 per barrel. Saudi Arabia previously had said it wanted to leave the price as it stands.
**************
Misetich

OPEC led by Hugo, are raising the "normal" oil price band to reflect the US $ continuing depreciation, and the risks associated with accepting US $ - eventually OPEC's risk will be higher as the US $ continues its descend - thus pricing in Euro's will be a necessity

US and Japan's economies will be tested to adapt to much higher prices than enjoyed throughout the 90's

Oil and Gold will rise together - yes

All Aboard The Gold Bull Expess - Part ll
misetich
(09/05/2004; 15:33:25 MDT - Msg ID: 124196)
The Next Shock: Not Oil, but Debt
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/09/05/business/yourmoney/05view.htmlSnip:

As a result, the American economic ship, which has weathered the recent run-up in crude oil prices, may be more vulnerable to sudden surges in the price of money. If the rate on 30-year fixed mortgages were to rise from 5.4 percent today to 7.5 percent next February, homeowners could get walloped.

"Rather go to bed supperless than rise in debt," Benjamin Franklin wrote in Poor Richard's Almanac. Well, in recent years, American consumers, businesses and governments have been hitting the sack with their stomachs bloated and their charge cards maxed out. From 1988 to 2000, the ratio of nonfinancial debt to gross domestic product held steady at about 1.8 to 1. But recently, consumer, business and government credit has bulged like the belly of a contestant at a hot-dog eating contest at Coney Island.

From the beginning of 2001 to the end of 2003, the economy added $1.317 trillion in gross domestic product and $4.2 trillion in debt.
..................
In 1997, when the total national debt stood at $5.4 trillion, Washington paid $356 billion in interest. In 2003, when the national debt grew to $6.8 trillion, Uncle Sam's interest bill fell to $318 billion. The environment of ultralow interest rates engineered by Alan Greenspan, the Federal Reserve chairman, thus sharply muted the impact of Washington's fiscal recklessness
..................
In the first quarter of 2004, debt rose at an annual clip of 8.6 percent, more than double the growth rate of the economy. No, we've kept the interest bill down by swapping fixed-rate for adjustable-rate financing. The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that adjustable-rate mortgages constituted 35 percent of new mortgages in the second quarter this year, up from 27 percent in the fourth quarter of 2003.
*************
Misetich

The 2006 Debt Shock And Awe?

What about the 2005 Asset Deflation Shock And Awe?

Perhaps its too much "doom and gloom" however as The 2004 Oil Shock And Awe continues the odds and risks of housing - stock market bubble burst ARE RISING and thus the debt and asset deflation shock and awe are within the realm of occuring

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
Druid
(09/05/2004; 16:20:02 MDT - Msg ID: 124197)
A Piece of The Action
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/pollock/pollock090304.htmlJapan Sells 1.9 Trillion Yen of 1.6% 10-Year Bonds --(Bloomberg, September 2, 2004.)

Editor: The US sells 10-Year bonds to Japan at 4.11 per cent. This difference of 2.51 per cent in interest rates provides Japan with arbitrage profits.



On June 30, 2004 we asked this important question: 'What yield would a 10-year fixed rate Treasury bond need to provide an individual investor in order to justify a purchase held to maturity?'

Because risk over time cannot be quantified, readers realized that this was a very hard question to answer. Correspondence I received mentioned that 10-Year Treasury yields ranging from seven to 15 per cent, held to maturity, would be attractive to the individual investor. The Treasury does not pay the average individual US investor enough yield to justify holding a 10-Year treasury bond to maturity. The bid price is way below the ask.

Why then would the 10-Year Treasury yield far less than the risk-adjusted expectation? The answer, of course, is Japan. The bid and ask prices have been set across the Pacific Ocean between borrower government and creditor government - between the United States and Japan.

To the Japanese government, any rate received from US Treasuries, 10-Year or otherwise, will be much higher than the interest rates set for borrowing money from its domestic savers. Money can be borrowed on the cheap from domestic Japanese savings deposits.

The deposited savings (banking liability) can be used to purchase US Treasury bonds (banking asset). The difference between interest earned and interest paid is profit. Japan makes a profit on every dollar purchased via US Treasury bonds.

Unfortunately, Japanese savers are not getting enough yield to justify the risk of default. Perhaps for this reason, I have not seen it acknowledged elsewhere that a profitable interest rate differential, or arbitrage, exists between Japanese savings and US borrowings.

For this scam to continue to work, the Bank of Japan must keep domestic savings rates low and the yen weak. I believe that without Japan, the 10-Year would be yielding between seven and 15 per cent. Long ago, individual US investors collectively had enough savings to purchase domestic treasury instruments at a fair rate of return. Priced domestically, the US 10-Year rate should not be anywhere near its current level of 4.11 per cent.

The reward-to-risk ratio has been mis-priced to risk. It has been priced instead to the deflationary context of Japan. In effect, the US has been importing Japanese deflation. The US has been living high on the Japanese savings hog. It has been enjoying the deflation of cheap money much in the same way the country enjoys the deflation from cheap goods from China.
*********************************************************

Druid: This is an excellent read describing how a "managed" carry trade between the Japanese & US governments is systematically pillaging and destroying two sets of very different citizens, savers and spenders. By keeping this artificially deflated interest rate spread in place well below what a "free" market interest rate should be, Japanese savings is racing toward zero and American debt is heading toward infinity. What a deal for the middlemen who walk away with all the chips.
Ag Mountain
(09/05/2004; 17:39:35 MDT - Msg ID: 124198)
@ Smeagol
"If thiss proposal is defeated, we will know the Euro is sstill on track...if not, it will eventually be only a dollar with a different name..."

Not so fast. Unless you've intended "eventually" to imply a whole heap of structural changes to the Europe's all-important definitions of reserves I'd say you're comment is shooting too much from the hip without thinking about it deeply enough.
Great Albino Bat
(09/05/2004; 18:55:58 MDT - Msg ID: 124199)
"The Tale of a Tub", by Swift = SGP discussions.

Once upon a time there was a rich man who left his three sons a cloak which was made of splendid stuff and richly embroidered, etc. His provision in his will, was that he left them the cloak with the only provisi--n, that they should never, ever, make any changes to it.

But they very soon wanted to make changes to it, according to changing fashion. So, they talked and talked and finally agreed that making the changes they wanted, was not really meant or implied in the words of their dear, departed sire.

And so - on and on.

The Stability and Growth Pact is so much rubbish that stands in the way of pleasing the electorates of the EU. So, it must be trashed. So much for paper promises!

Ugly prospect for the Euro, indeed. the "Tale of a Tub" is just beginning.

All this, highlights the importance of gold, of course.

the GAB


USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(09/05/2004; 19:01:12 MDT - Msg ID: 124200)
A risk-free request, helping you enter the gold market with grace and confidence.
http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html

Get a head start on the gold market!
Smeagol
(09/05/2004; 19:01:22 MDT - Msg ID: 124201)
BANG! Ya got us, Ssir Ag Mountain! Ach!

...yess, we musst admit, at times we are guilty of opening our mouth before engaging our brain... but this latest proposal ssmacks of the ssame kind of foot-in-the-door things that 'eventually' resulted in the dollar being where it is today, though it was not sseen that way at the time... sss... we will keep our mouth shut and wait and ssee how many more 'proposals' are made to modify the Euro and how the vote goes... esspecially if the sstress levels continue to climb.

S.
Ag Mountain
(09/05/2004; 19:05:03 MDT - Msg ID: 124202)
@ GAB, casting stones
Can the euro deserve to be so criticized for relaxing a SGP standard that it's main competitor, the dollar, doesn't even have to begin with???
Ag Mountain
(09/05/2004; 19:12:43 MDT - Msg ID: 124203)
@ Smeagol
Don't keep your mouth shut, I like your epic poems and the allgorical thought behind.

All I was trying to say was that because the euro has a fundamentally different foundation than the dollar, even were the SGP abolished totally, the result would not be just another dollar with a different name, which is all a nickname for derivative control to the common denominator. If SGP failure happened it would be the difference between gold just going to the moon versus gold going to Jupiter.
Great Albino Bat
(09/05/2004; 19:24:33 MDT - Msg ID: 124204)
Ag Mountain @ "Casting stones"...

Ag Mountain, if I criticize the Euro and not the Dollar, it is because the Euro is "letting us down"; we had hoped for something stronger but evidently, what had to happen, had to happen - the rules are bent with everyone expressing the best of reasons why the unbendable had to be bent. So silly! Such hypocrisy in elegant words!

AS for the Dollar - it is a lost cause, why criticize it?

Daughter Dollar is a confirmed slut, but Daughter Euro - we had better expectations, and now she turns out to be a whore, just like her sister. "Cos' fan tutte!"

the GAB
Smeagol
(09/05/2004; 19:32:41 MDT - Msg ID: 124205)
Another Oil supply riddle
[taking off the Smeagol mask for this]

In reading the posts of Another in the Archives, he indicated that the 'oil states' had an abundant supply of oil that could be easily made available to any nation that was willing to part with a token amount of currency PLUS a small amount of gold valued at a much higher price than the paper market. His tone indicated that there were many decades of oil left, but that without gold inluded in payment the price would be high.

That was six or so years ago.

Today, we hear rumors of 'there's not much oil left', or 'peak oil has come', or 'what's left will cost more to get out of the ground', or 'there's not enough production capacity to meet rising demand', et cetera. Today, as in Misetich's post below (misetich (9/5/04; msg#: 124195), the oil states are raising the price band. This would appear to be a pressure tactic to move things quicker toward Another resolution, IF there is in fact an abundant supply of oil; if there isn't, then?

I don't suppose we of small worth will find out until the SHTF. Any Thoughts?

By the way, does anyone know if Another is still around? It'd sure be nice to hear his take on the latest news. It seems to me that much of his Thought is still intact, but the timeline was extended.

Smeagol

P.S. to Ag Mountain - thank you for the compliment. And,
"To Jupiter, and beyond!" ;-)

1340cc
(09/05/2004; 20:02:51 MDT - Msg ID: 124206)
Sir Ssss, Aahhhhhhh what a breath of fresh air
I must have missssssssed why you do the Sssssssss thingy. It makes it so hard to read. Could you pleassssssse explain what the Ssssssss thingy is all about.

BTW I love ssssssaakes. I had a ex that could walk on water if you ssssssssssaid "SSSSSSSSSSNAKE". Sssssssssissssssssy guys!!!!!!

You do give good info and I love it when I don't have to wade through all the........well you know!

BTW FTB ( Frank The Wonder Boy) and I are headed to the Emerald Isle next Ssssssunday. The 50th Galway Oyssssssster Fesssssstival, don't you know. Sssseemssssss like otherssssss here know about the Fessssssstival. If you are going to be there we would like to get together with you there. We will be in Ireland for 12 daysssss.
Smeagol
(09/05/2004; 21:09:51 MDT - Msg ID: 124207)
Lady 1340cc

Read the booksssssssssss (grin)!

When we first visited thiss fine Casstle, and Posted here, the atmosphere, and the Forum, was filled with Lord of the Rings poster-handles and 'innuendo?' And they had a deal we couldn't refuse - a Silver Precious for a firsst Posst. We noticed there was no Smeagol, and we decided to have uss a little fun.

[ It can be a hindrance to write a detailed reply (or an Essay!) in Smeagol-character; it doesn't help that I type two-fingered! Should the Hosts, Knights and Ladies of this honorable Forum ever tire of the masquerade I shall be perfectly content to use the 'Common Tongue'. I find this Forum to be an incredible resource and I want to sincerely thank every one of YOU, whether poster or lurker, for putting up with the eccentrics. Perhaps it is indeed time to retire the Smeagol mask; it's hard to talk through when I want to be serious :-) ]

S.

P.S. We find Ssnakeses to be fasscinating creatures, and are not afraid of them. Oyssters? iick!

P.P.S. [ Ah, Ireland, lost Atlantis found! It is my ancestral home, though I've never been there. Enjoy! ]
968
(09/06/2004; 03:18:30 MDT - Msg ID: 124208)
@ GAB, Smeagol.
- Even with an SGP of 4% and 70%, the European Goverment spending is nothing compared to the US Goverment spending. The only thing US Congress compares the goverment spending with are the goverment spending figures of the previous fiscal year !!!
- European Commission Members don't say on national television : "Deficits don't matter." They only PROPOSED a partial relaxation.

1000 million US$ is spent by Washington in ..... 4 hours and 6 minutes (in fiscal year 2003). What are we talking about here ?
Sundeck
(09/06/2004; 05:17:39 MDT - Msg ID: 124209)
Oil and gold trivia
Assume:

1. The circumference of the Earth is about 40,000 km.
2. About 140,000 tonnes of gold have been mined in total in the history of gold mining.
3. The world consumes a bit more than 80 million barrels of oil per day.
4. A barrel of oil is 159 litres. Lets assume "a barrel" is a cylinder about a metre high and about 45 cm in diametre.

Then...

If all the gold ever mined was formed into a uniform wire and wrapped around the Earth, it would have a diametre of about 1.5 cm (0.6 inches).

The world consumes more than 80 million barrels of oil per day. If this number of barrels were arranged in a line next to oneanother, they would almost stretch around the Earth. (You need about 89 million barrels.)

Just for fun...

;-)



Smeagol
(09/06/2004; 08:26:34 MDT - Msg ID: 124210)
Annie, get your gold!
Sir 968,

The dollar started out at ZERO deficit allowed and 100% golden until 'proposals' were made, and look where we are now after so little a span of time. If you establish what is intended to be a standard and then change it, or enable it to be changed later, it is no longer a standard, it is a variable. I understand that the Euro, being a new concept of and in the minds of men, may need some 'polishing', but it remains a "mental value concept agreed upon by some" expressed in the real world as a paper currency, and no paper currency has ever stood the test of changeful, greedy human thought. As Another has said, "time will prove all things", and I am content to wait and watch, but I'm not fooled.

Smeagol

Sir Sundeck, thanks for the 'trivia'... fun stuff :-)
Life,Liberty,Property
(09/06/2004; 09:08:55 MDT - Msg ID: 124211)
The Euro let down?
Perhaps I am being unfair and unreasonable. I do appreciate the informatio I have found in this forum and continue to find, but have noticed a strange dicotomy. While visitiors to this forum understand that while the dollar has no real value, there has generally been a broad appreciation for the Euro and plaudits for its' being "backed" by gold. Perhaps to understand where my own views evolve from, a little about my back ground. I have a bacelor's degree in history, but left a masters program when I became disillusioned with academia. Admittedly, my interest is more in military history than economic, but I have had a strong faith in capitalism and republicanism gained from my reading in general. In truth, the two go hand in hand with neither able to survive without the other in the long run. Ladies and gentleman, despite what many think, the EU is not a step toward a united, republican Europe. The lowest common denominator amongst the governments is socialism. Socialism is doomed to fail in the end because it is based on the idea that governments can best determine how to spend money, not people or the market. As the euro is a currency constructed by a government with that theoretical basis it was only a matter of time before this happened. You can't cook the books or expand "the State" with gold because it exposes reality and market forces in the end. The dollar only began to stray when socialism reared its ugly head. Why think the euro would be different?

Go for the gold, not paper of any nationality or color.
Chris Powell
(09/06/2004; 09:13:38 MDT - Msg ID: 124212)
Barrick makes GATA's case in China
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/2365Latest GATA dispatch.


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968
(09/06/2004; 09:19:47 MDT - Msg ID: 124213)
@ Sir Smeagol
I think we reach the core problem of the monetary policy of a currency here. On one hand we have the non-elected monetary officials who designe and manage a currency (but who are appointed by elected officials !!), on the other hand we have the fiscal goverment policy by elected officials that is mostly designed to win a new election.
MK
(09/06/2004; 09:47:45 MDT - Msg ID: 124215)
A True Story about Gold
http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.htmlHere's a sneak preview from our upcoming "Client Letter". New prospective clientele can receive our weekly e-mail letter by going to the link above and signing up for our free information packet - a valuable introduction to gold ownership in its own right.
______________

I did an appraisal for a client last week looking to borrow for a real estate transaction. He invested $1 million about four years ago in a mixture of bullion coins and pre-1933 European -- weighted in favor of pre-1933. He is now sitting on just short of $1.5 million.

I asked his permission to use this story, and here is his e-mail response:
"No problem at all, Mike. I have viewed it as a hedge, but also as an
alternative to money market funds. Now I can leverage it for investment
purposes--private equity and real estate mostly. The holding has averaged
7%-10% of my total assets. And I do hope to buy substantially more, when
appropriate. Thanks again."

Note: He's not selling but hypothecating. Knowing this client he means what he says. I have no doubt he will purchase more gold, as he says, when his personal financial situation deems it appropriate. This is important information because needless to say, he is an astute investor. His returns tell a story worth thinking about in this age of 2% money and wavering to collapsing stock portfolios.
Smeagol
(09/06/2004; 10:23:34 MDT - Msg ID: 124216)
Of dollars and euros and boats and -isms.

Sir 968: yes, you hit the mark there, all right!

Sirs 968 and Life, Liberty, Property (like that handle!):

Similarly disillusioned, I gave up on any and all "-isms" long ago, as they are belief systems very similar to the "mental value concept agreed upon by some" that is the
basis for constantly failing paper money systems, and they can be far more harmful. Some do their damage politically. Yet we live and move in a world where these belief systems, however misguided (like 'republicans' espousing 'democracy'), must be factored into life's decisions. If one is in a boat that is damaged beyond repair and sinking (the dollar), and another newer boat of the same make floats by that APPEARS in better shape but still has leaks (the euro), would one might look more favorably on that boat, maybe to the point of abandoning the first to gain a benefit (a little more time to solve the sinking problem or get to land) offered by the second? Not liking one while liking another of the same kind is only dichotomy if they are both exactly the same.

Gold, of course, is "solid ground", and sinking is not a concern, though access and use of it may be denied for a time to some people by other people following ill-conceived beliefs under the banner of (fill-in-the-blank)ism that happen to have means to enforce same. But all monetary "boats" made of paper, will eventually sink no matter what '-ism' is holding power.

Smeagol

P.S. Sir MK; SWEET! I expect there will be more of that kind of story to tell as time passes. A question - back when I ordered the info pack the e-mail letters were not available; how do I sign up? TIA.
Knallgold
(09/06/2004; 10:24:39 MDT - Msg ID: 124217)
Interesting story from this CPM client
He bought his coins in 1999-I'm a bit curious if one could as easily buy Gold for a million today.Or is "small fish" as FOA stated it anything under a ton?I remember it vividly when I wanted to buy 3 kilo of Silverbars at a big Swiss bank about 2 years ago-and they had not one at hand!And I had seen them running out of Vrenelies also.
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(09/06/2004; 10:55:43 MDT - Msg ID: 124218)
... In Order to Form a More Perfect Union... (between You and Your Savings)
http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html

Arm yourself with knowledge
Life,Liberty,Property
(09/06/2004; 11:00:14 MDT - Msg ID: 124219)
Euro boats
Continuing the ship analogy, the dollar is one that was once sound. The hull was well built and the cross bracings (the market) solid with a plating of gold. As time went by it aged well until the captain convinced the owners that there was no need for plating because the "progress" of the ship was only slowed by the weight. The ship still sails but is no longer making way as it once did and is starting to take on water. The hull is rotten without its protection of gold. How long will it last?
The euro ship has a thin plating of gold. The captain is doubtful and the owners started the partnership with the idea to go faster than the dollar ship. Already they see that plate as a pesky encumberance to be rid of. The wood wasn't seasoned long enough on their ship to survive the coming storm without the plate they look eager to divest themselves of.
Waverider
(09/06/2004; 11:06:40 MDT - Msg ID: 124220)
Surge in gold demand expected [China]
http://news3.xinhuanet.com/english/2004-09/06/content_1948199.htm"Annual gold demand on the Chinese mainland is expected to triple in coming years as a result of the ongoing gold market deregulation, according to the World Gold Council. In a report released yesterday in Shanghai, the council forecast a rise in gold demand on the mainland from the current 200 tonnes to 600 tonnes a year, based on the effects of a similar market deregulation on India. Much of the extra 400 tonnes a year would come from imports, reported China Daily."

Waverider: Bless them!
Smeagol
(09/06/2004; 11:10:05 MDT - Msg ID: 124221)
Imvho,

"-isms" are to Human Thought, what paper money is to Gold. As soon as you box and label a group of thoughts by calling it "X"-ism, and attempt to cause others by any means to use it, believe in it, or otherwise live or influence their life by it, you have created a "paper" thought-system subject to change over time for better or worse, and which can be used to mold and shape human thinking and behavior, much like paper money. Reasons for leaving these systems, as Gandalf said to Saruman, "you can see from your windows".

Smeagol
Great Albino Bat
(09/06/2004; 11:11:48 MDT - Msg ID: 124222)
FWIW:

The GAB was told by a Swiss banker, three or four years ago, if not more, that Standard 12 Kg. "Good Delivery" bars were no longer available. Maximum, only 1 Kg. bars.

If Central Banks are "Selling", how come no 12 Kg. bars are around? 12 Kg. bars is what Central Bank reserves of gold consist of.

The GAB
Smeagol
(09/06/2004; 11:21:28 MDT - Msg ID: 124223)
A tale of a Sea Turtle and two Hare boats
Sir Life, Liberty, Property,

Exactly.

The problem with both 'boats' is they are not made ENTIRELY of gold! Yet to gain 'speed' or 'advantage' BOTH captains decide to sacrifice the one thing, gold, that would ensure 'arrival to the destination', which after all is the whole focus of the journey!

Smeagol
Smeagol
(09/06/2004; 11:25:44 MDT - Msg ID: 124224)
What price delivery?

You raise an interesting question, Sir Knallgold and Sir GAB. At what volume do gold (and silver) become difficult to physically deliver? Of course that would depend somewhat on the size of the dealer. Sir GAB, you answered this for gold concerning a Swiss bank several years ago. It would be interesting to see a 'delivery difficulty chart' of this based on USAGOLD's experience, and how it has changed over time.

Smeagol
Smeagol
(09/06/2004; 11:30:58 MDT - Msg ID: 124225)
Try offering more

Sir GAB,

"If Central Banks are "Selling", how come no 12 Kg. bars are around? 12 Kg. bars is what Central Bank reserves of gold consist of."

Perhaps if you were willing to pay Another price, you could pry one of those bars from someone's hands!

Smeagol
Waverider
(09/06/2004; 11:57:18 MDT - Msg ID: 124226)
Central Banks may sell less gold than planned
http://www.bday.co.za/bday/content/direct/1,3523,1696877-6080-0,00.htmlChris Powell (9/5/04; 11:19:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 124191)

"European central banks may sell as little as 250 tons of gold per annum, instead of the maximum of 500 tons per annum, as per the second European Central Bank agreement, from 2004 through to 2009, London-based UBS analyst John Reade said in a note."

Waverider: Here's the South African news link for the story posted yesterday (#124191). Apparently the European CB's are expecting a "slow down in physical demand"!
misetich
(09/06/2004; 14:35:23 MDT - Msg ID: 124227)
Russia, France and Germany set up "action-coorindation" mechanism
http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/200409/03/eng20040903_155852.htmlSnip:

The three leaders had a most agreeable talk, but they neither signed agreements nor published joint statements; and they refused to disclose any inside story when jointly meeting the press. In relevance to the substance of their conversations, it is the form of tripartite meeting that aroused keener interest from the people.
.......................
Strengthened collaboration among Russia, France and Germany is primarily because the three countries have common or similar views on the current international situation and the future world pattern. The three leaders have repeatedly pointed out that the world today has come to a "crossroads", with every country facing the choice--preferring "multi-polarization" or accepting "power politics". They all agree that the days have gone when an individual country manipulated the destiny of other countries and the world security must be guaranteed by collective efforts within the limits of the United Nations. Besides, the Iraq war waged by the United States has injected an actual motivation force into a stronger cooperation among Russia, France and Germany. It is the anti-war alliance that has revived strategic consultations among the three countries. Even during the recent Sochi meeting, the situation in Iraq remained a focus of attention of the three leaders.
*************
Misetich

"Strategic alliance" is the term being used, as Russia moves closer and closer to EU and the Euro

Oil priced in Euro's by EU trading partners, including Russia and most OPEC countries seem a logical step within the next few years

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
Smeagol
(09/06/2004; 16:30:47 MDT - Msg ID: 124228)
Going up, maybe?
Let's see... Central Banks to cut their sales of gold in half... China to triple their purchases of gold... sounds like an excuse for a new, higher trading band to me. Unless of course, even MORE paper gold comes online.

Smeagol
Clink!
(09/06/2004; 17:04:51 MDT - Msg ID: 124229)
@Sssir Ssssmeagol
Having problems sstaying in character is we, then ? The old, "human" side wanting to break through, eh ? Well, I have a solution for you, my fine, multi-identity friend(s). If there is another person inside you, shouldn't they have their own handle, so that Smeagol can be left in peace if he doesn't want to post ? Think about it.
Clink! (The sound of the precious)
MK
(09/06/2004; 17:24:46 MDT - Msg ID: 124230)
Smeagol & Knallgold
Smeagol:

Please contact Jill

1-800-869-5115 Extension #104, or

jill@usagold.com

Mention that I approved you to be put on the client list. An esteemed poster such as yourself deserves the perk. Any poster who believes himself or herself similarly qualified is welcome to write Jill for review. Please include your posting handle. All regular posters will be similarly considered.
________

Knallgold, we have no trouble at this time putting together orders of that size. In fact, we do it with some regularity. At the same time, we work with gold owners at every income level as many of you can attest - from small order desk on up. We know that every gold transaction is important and bring the same market skills and level of guidance to the table for the $1000 purchases that we do for the six and seven figure purchases.
Clink!
(09/06/2004; 17:40:11 MDT - Msg ID: 124231)
Dying of Money
Greetings from a rather soggy Tampa Bay. Frances was something of a damp squib, but I am still amazed how much damage can be done here with only fairly moderate winds. I suppose that the usual winds here are so light that there is a large amount of "stuff" waiting to be blown away that accumulates, and you think it's solid.
Over the past two days of enforced immobility, I have been dipping into the above book by Jens O. Parsson, which was mentioned at the Table about six to eight weeks ago. I can't remember who by though, but a big Thank You, nonetheless. The book concerns the Great German and American Inflations, which, considering it was written in 1974, makes you wonder what the author thought of the latter half of the '70's. The section on the German inflation of the Weimar Republic is unfortunately short and a little disjointed - the tale told at this Castle is probably better - but after that he starts addressing some generalities of inflationary environments. He gives specific examples from the US experience of 1960-68, but some of the comments are so similar to what we have been hearing here recently as to take my breath away :-

SNIP :- ... the weighted average price inflation from 1960 to 1968 was only 6% in the basically productive half of the economy consisting of farming, mining, manufacturing, transportation, communications and utilities, while it was 27% in the other half of the economy. There was obviously a connection between the inability of these industries to share in the price inflation and the inability of their workers and industrialists to share in the spoils of the boom.

SNIP :- A buoyantly rising stock market marks the opening stages of every monetary inflation. A sharply rising stock market proves to be an unfailing indicator of monetary inflation happening now, price inflation coming later, and a cheap boom probably happening in the meantime. The stock market boom like the prosperity is founded on nothing but the inflation, and it collapses whenever the inflation stops either temporarily or permanently.

SNIP (talking about malinvestment) :- The conclusion is inescapable that very much of the frenzied economic activity of the American boom must have been for all practical purposes useless......Stated another way, this means that Americans very probably could have worked as much as a day less a week WITH NO LOSS OF EITHER REAL OUTPUT OR INCOME, if they had simply dispensed with all the useless work and reassigned the productive work among themselves.

Now there's a thought for Labor Day - maybe the French aren't so daft or unproductive with their 35 hour working weeks or seven weeks of vacation !!

C!
1340cc
(09/06/2004; 19:13:16 MDT - Msg ID: 124232)
Sir Smealgol
I didn't mean to take away your alter ego & fun. I just didn't know where the Smealgol thing came from. I am going to have to read the "Rings". Clink has a good suggestion about another posting name. So keep on Ssssssslithering.
Chris Powell
(09/06/2004; 19:15:34 MDT - Msg ID: 124233)
MineWeb's Tim Wood is outta here
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/2367MineWeb's Tim Wood knew all along that the gold
market was rigged, and now he's outta here.


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Ned
(09/06/2004; 19:36:37 MDT - Msg ID: 124234)
bye..bye...........Timmy
...have a golden life dude!

Hope you have heard the essentials mon ami......PHYSICAL! One more time time for the cheap seats MAN!

PHYSICAL! PHYSICAL! PHYSICAL!

This game started and WILL END with Supply/Demand fundamentals. Anyone not clued in YET! Listen to this! It might be next month with the terror stuff, it might be 6 months from now with the paper meltdown, it might be 2 years from now with the oil meltdown, it might be 5 years with the pension meltdown. DO YA GET THE THEME FRIEND? Get ready for the meltdown!! It's IMMINENT, the MELTDOWN is going to happen........get physical.

Is there REALLY a discussion????????????????????????????





Smeagol
(09/06/2004; 21:00:00 MDT - Msg ID: 124235)
...what's that...golden light? Oww...

..ach...sss...O, our head hurrts, precious... what happened? What time is it?... that horrible taste in our mouth... gaack!... ptui! That tricksy fat Samwise hobbit musst have sslipped us some nassty elvish stuff during the Party lasst night... owww....sss... we'll fix his wagon, we will... grrr...

...what's this?! AIEEE!! Did we write all that in the Forum today whilst out of our mind? What does it mean?(gape) O no, precious what will they think?

S.

-----

I think that was your Common Tongue tutor transcribing some Elvish-ale-inspired ramblings of yours while you were in your cups, seeing as you couldn't type. He thought he was doing you a favor. He seems interested in the forum; maybe you should get him his own 'handle' like they said. - F.B.
Dollar Bill
(09/06/2004; 21:08:43 MDT - Msg ID: 124236)
.,.
Smeagol, I do believe, as a long time (early 1998) forum reader and sometimes poster, that your search for Anothers whereabouts need be a search only of this forum.
Another never left. I say he did valiant work. Took the forum to the heights. Challenged posters to a high standard, and receded to another role. Just guessing.
mikal
(09/06/2004; 21:18:10 MDT - Msg ID: 124237)
Headlines Roundup
Greenspan Takes Center Stage This Week - Reuters
Big hedge fund inflows give cause for concern - FT
Funds opt for the quick sale strategy - FT �
Oil Eases as Saudi Offers Big Discounts - Reuters
A homily on an anomaly - FT ($) �
Gold May Rise on Oil-Cost Risk to Growth, Survey Says - Bloomberg
Allstate, Other Insurers Assess Losses From Frances Destruction - Bloomberg
Japanese Second-Quarter Capital Spending Rose 10.7% - Bloomberg
Smeagol
(09/06/2004; 22:31:03 MDT - Msg ID: 124238)
(No Subject)
Thank you, Ssir MK! (bowing)

S.
Smeagol
(09/06/2004; 22:43:24 MDT - Msg ID: 124239)
Lady 1340cc, we thinks you will enjoy the Sstory-tale. Our part, well...

Ssir Dollar Bill, we do not think Another has posted in a long time, though his words echo in the halls and the mind... he has a way of writing that is unique, an identifiable 'accent', if you will, which we have not heard in a long time...unless ssomeone else is possting his Thought today...

S.
Ag Mountain
(09/07/2004; 00:32:32 MDT - Msg ID: 124240)
@ Great Albino Bat #124204
I couldn't continue our talk yesterday, I lost my internet connection.

Picking up where we left off about casting stones, I can't understand why you would bother feeling this way about the euro, you said,

"if I criticize the Euro and not the Dollar, it is because the Euro is "letting us down"; we had hoped for something stronger"

No matter how the euro is managed, why should you or any other one of us be in any postition to let it's strength or conversely its weakness affect you unless you are doing some kind of currency trading? If we take Aristotle's advice we each should only have a small margin of dollar or euro checking account money at risk of poor government management while all of our real savings are safely immune in the form of gold.

Taken simply as a currency there's no reason for any of us guys to cheer or cry for the euro. The most important thing isn't what's going on regarding the fate of its exchange-rate from the quality of its management. The most important thing is that even if theoretically the euro can be imagined as merely an undesirable socialist weak-sister money, sort of like a pariah in the cash drawers of the world, it will have already succeeded where we're all concerned because in designing it from top to bottom the ECB was aiming for more perfection than the dollar system offered so they established a new model for international reserves that throws open the door for gold metal to regain the throne over dollars and financial derivatives that control its value to the very same dollar-based denominator.

GAB, if there's one thing to concentrate on you should fixate on the reserve issue which is the big story and not worry about the fringe currency on top of it all. After all it was you who had previously said all that there needed to be said on the issue of the various currencies in your post #124189 earlier in the discussion where you said,

"I do not think anyone alive today, will ever see a world where paper money is strictly redeemable in gold coin, to the bearer at sight. The only thing we can hope for, is a free market in gold where savings can find a refuge."

Amen. So when you think about it you'll agree that is based more on the reserve side of the equation than on how weak or strong the paper currency becomes relative to others at various points along the way. Plus, never be holding so much paper along the way for any of the inevitable weakening to really matter to you. Gold is what's right for savings based on the restoration of a level field in international reserves.
968
(09/07/2004; 02:02:44 MDT - Msg ID: 124241)
Nice chart !
http://www.handelsblatt.de/pshb/fn/relhbi/sfn/cn_archiv_getblob/SH/265b2361050c76a800768a51ff3638/depot/0/cmd/GETF%20hb%2004090609.gif%20HB%200/index.gifGold stays on track !
Waverider
(09/07/2004; 04:00:07 MDT - Msg ID: 124242)
China to open up gold trade
http://www.thestandard.com.hk/thestandard/news_detail_frame.cfm?articleid=50654∫catid=2"China plans to allow individuals to speculate on the price of gold through the Shanghai Gold Exchange in a bid to boost trade, central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan said. The most important thing we heard from the Chinese today is that they're going to let citizens trade gold,'' Dennis Gartman, editor of financial newsletter Gartman Letter, said. ``China is one of the few societies where gold still has a mystical quality for its citizens and if you make trading available to them, you're going to add to demand.''

China in 2001 allowed citizens to own gold and started the Shanghai exchange as an avenue for Chinese institutions to trade. With the surge in trading on the Shanghai exchange, foreign financial institutions are looking for ways to enter the market. Deutsche Bank, JPMorgan Chase and Royal Bank of Scotland Group are to offer Chinese banks access to the international gold market though EBS, which runs an electronic currency and precious metals trading system.

``If it can create more players, that will be good for the market at a time when US banks like Lehman Brothers and Merrill, as well as Rothschild's have pulled back,'' said Martin Mayne, associate director of client sales at NM Rothschild & Sons in Sydney. With about 12 trillion yuan of domestic savings held by Chinese citizens, there is potential for domestic consumption to rise dramatically, the exchange's Shen said."
Great Albino Bat
(09/07/2004; 10:05:01 MDT - Msg ID: 124243)
Ag Mountain: your comments to GAB...

Actually, totally in agreement with you, Ag Mountain!

I'll tell you that what I find sad - to put it mildly - is that Europe has such a grim future before it; the Islamic invasion of Europe which was permitted in the last forty years is a complete disaster for Europe; an irrecoverable disaster for the Mother Civilization of the world.

The evaporation of religion is another disaster for Europe.

The homogenization of all individual cultures within Europe, is another enormous loss.

I could go on and on, but let's get to the point: the monetary aspect. The Euro as a disaster waiting to happen, will be another heavy blow to the Mother Civilization. What will be left of European values, of European civilization, with all these problems piling up? Europe is doomed.

That is why the Euro experiment beginning to fail, as we see it clearly, long before the others, is disturbing. It is not a matter of "trading concerns". It is the fact that the failure of the Euro has much deeper signification, for the civilization that has provided the values which prevail in today's world.

The GAB




Knallgold
(09/07/2004; 10:23:25 MDT - Msg ID: 124244)
Interesting link by Waverider
No futures (yet) on the Shanghai Gold Exchange,contrary to oil and cotton (plus 7 other commodities).

from the link-" More than US$200 million (HK$1.56 billion) of gold a day is traded on EBS' electronic platform."

200$millions a day (around 15t) on the EBS,thats far from from the 1000t/day LBMA peak.This EBS sounds familiar to me,I remember FOA projecting a possible name for the coming physical Gold market: Euro Bullion Exchange System (EBES),now this name seems compromised by the paper(?) players.

On another note,its interesting that CB's probably seem to reduce support of the paper Goldmarket via smaller tonnage in the WA2-that the POG seems to come under pressure these days as a reaction is no real surprise to us here.



TownCrier
(09/07/2004; 10:25:03 MDT - Msg ID: 124245)
Profit taking, 'RNC relief' provide post-holiday sale to delight bargain shoppers
http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh13327_2004-09-07_14-32-41_n07369807_newsmlNEW YORK, Sept 7 (Reuters) - COMEX gold ... traders lightened risk insurance after a long weekend and said the buying before last week's Republican Convention now looked overdone.

The euro was seesawing in a narrow range, providing no direction, so players used their first day back from the Labor Day holiday Monday to sell out of long positions accumulated in gold's run to four-month highs in late August.

At 10:09 a.m. EDT, December gold was down $2.40 at $400.10 an ounce...

"People were expecting precious metals to come off the boil after (there were) no problems last week, with the convention finished," said the manager of a bullion trading firm. "Gold got a little ahead of itself."

Factors like the weak dollar and combat in Iraq contributed to global political jitters, and gold bullishness has not been vanquished. The Republican convention passed uneventfully, although the nation remains at the second highest terror threat level heading into the November elections.

Last week's news that Australian producer Sons of Gwalia Ltd. was having hedge book difficulty and was near bankruptcy was wearing off, after prompting some short covering.

Industry executives speaking Monday at the London Bullion Market Association conference in Shanghai said major producers are continuing to slash their hedge positions, expecting gold to rise toward 16-year highs in the coming months.

----(from url)----

The way I see it, you can either trade gold based on the week just ended, or else you can, based on the bigger picture, invest in gold to provide you with tangible security for the times ahead.

Call one of the friendly brokers at USAGOLD~Centennial today to discuss a diversification strategy that's right for you.

R.
TownCrier
(09/07/2004; 10:47:02 MDT - Msg ID: 124246)
Fed offers liquidity in response to tightened fed funds market
With the market in overnight fed funds trading over six basis points to the high side of the current FOMC target this morning, the Federal Reserve intervened in the open market today adding $8.5 billion in fresh cash for the nation's banking system through a round of overnight repos at 1.54%.

R.
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(09/07/2004; 10:54:20 MDT - Msg ID: 124247)
Solid security through the ages... 1-800-869-5115
http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.html

Golden Goal




"Treasure chests throughout history
have been filled with gold, and not by idle choice."

-- R. Strauss

American Expression
(09/07/2004; 12:45:06 MDT - Msg ID: 124248)
Peak Oil Fraud: OPEC President Says There Is No Shortage of Oil in Global Markets
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/040907/australia_opec_2.html
SYDNEY, Australia (AP) -- The president of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said Tuesday that there is no shortage of oil in global markets. Oil prices were lower in advance of the market opening in New York.

Purnomo Yusgiantoro said oil production in the 11 OPEC nations, including Iraq, is "29 million to 30 million barrels every day."

World oil production is running "1.5 million barrels every day above demand, based on our forecasts," Purnomo told reporters at the World Energy Congress in Sydney.

"There is enough oil in the market," said Purnomo, who is also Indonesia's mines and energy minister.

"Purnomo said OPEC is studying proposals to increase the OPEC marker price to $26-$34 per barrel from the current $22-$28 range, due to inflation and the U.S. dollar's depreciation. The current price band was set in 2000."

-END SNIP-

AMERICA'S NEXT SHOCK MAY BE DEBT, NOT OIL
Daniel Gross NYT
Monday, September 06, 2004

From 1988 to 2000, the ratio of nonfinancial debt to gross domestic product held steady at about 1.8 to 1. But recently, consumer, business and government debt has bulged. From the beginning of 2001 to the end of 2003, the economy added $1.317 trillion in gross domestic product and $4.2 trillion in debt.

That means each new dollar of economic output was accompanied by $3.19 in new debt. So now, for the first time, the debt-to-GDP ratio stands at more than 2 to 1.

Throw in financial credit - the debt that investment banks and others use to finance trading activities and the like - and total debt has more than doubled since 1994.

"It's been much more a matter of households borrowing than businesses," said Benjamin Friedman, a Harvard economist. "You have to hope that people are going to be able to service the obligations they've taken on."

http://www.iht.com/bin/print.php?file=537365.html

"Due to inflation and the U.S. dollar's depreciation." --Purnomo

"The debt that investment banks and others use to finance trading activities and the like - and total debt has more than doubled since 1994."

Peak Oil is the cover story to hide the debasement of the currency standard. Oil has not increased in price, the value of the dollar exchange unit purchasing power has declined due to a massive debt inflation and dillution.

"It is well that the people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning." -- Henry Ford

National Debt:

$7,366,776,167,570.79

All Time High!

National Debt 1987:

$2,350,276,890,953.00

SOURCE: BUREAU OF THE PUBLIC DEBT
http://www.publicdebt.treas.gov/opd/opdpenny.htm

"A republic if you can keep it!"
American Expression
(09/07/2004; 12:53:13 MDT - Msg ID: 124249)
"The End of the Credit Expansion is Here!"
http://www.jsmineset.com/home.asp?
"REPENT THE END IS HERE"

Please note that I did not say the end was "near" but rather the end is "here." The end is I believe Tuesday, September 7, 2004 and will be noted by history as such. --Jim Sinclair

"Get Real or Get Reamed"

Fact: More than half of all mortgages outstanding have been created in the past three years!

Fact: From the beginning of 2001 to the end of 2003, the economy added $1.317 trillion in gross domestic product and $4.2 trillion in debt. That means that each new dollar of economic output was accompanied by $3.19 in new debt. So now, for the first time, the debt-to-G.D.P. ratio stands at more than two to one. (New York Times, Business Section, Sept. 05, 2004).

Fact: The growth of the over-the-counter derivative market dwarfs all other financial phenomena in history. There is a singular COT firm with more than $40 trillion in replacement value of these instruments on their books. There is no doubt in my mind that these instruments will over time be identified as the greatest FRAUD perpetrated on any nation. The original fallout from junk bonds will not even hold a candle to this impending titanic event.

Fact: All of the above will be directly blamed on the Chairman of the Federal Reserve because he:

a. Publicly encouraged home owners to borrow money by refinancing their homes in order to maintain consumer spending at high levels.

b. Supported the thesis that the over-the-counter derivative market requires neither regulators nor regulations.

c. Promoted the existence of over-the-counter derivatives as a mechanism of transferring risk from the few to the many.

d. Gave credit to over-the-counter derivatives to prevent major financial dislocations as the economy contracted between 2000 and 2003.

e. Supported the initiative by the Bank of Japan to blast liquidity into the entire global economic system by way of a computer electronic transaction that in practical terms cannot be unwound.

Fact: There is no doubt that the US economy is in the midst of unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus and is rolling over as a result of two drivers: First, is the oil price which is being driven higher as a tool of war; next is the simple force of gravity pulling on the economy because of the unwillingness of the current administration to attend to the triple deficits: US Budget,Trade and Current Account.

Friday's payroll number could not even meet the needs of new employment seekers let alone create jobs for those on the unemployment roles.

Fact: It makes no difference who becomes president because Iraq will continue to suck the lifeblood out of the US economy, taking the dollar with it. Senator John McCain pointedly noted recently that the US has been in Korea and Germany for over 50 years and Iraq might not be much different.

Fact: The technical condition of the US dollar over the past four years has devolved into a BANKRUPTCY chart. Worse yet is the 25 year dollar chart that underscores the irreconcilable separation of the US dollar from its status as the reserve currency of choice for the major trading nations.

Fact: The most recent piece of disinformation that has circulated in the Gold Community concerning the so-called "Synthetic Dollar Short" is totally WRONG and has no basis in the mechanism of international currency markets. Dan Norcini is preparing an article that will totally debunk what I believe is an outrageous concept.

THE FACT IS THAT THE IMPENDING DEBT LIQUIDATION IS - IN LIGHT OF THE AGE OF DEBT - THE SIZE OF DEBT AND THE SIZE AND FRAUDULENT NATURE OF OTC DERIVATIVES IS "TERMINALLY DOLLAR NEGATIVE."

"REPENT THE END IS HERE"

Please note that I did not say the end was "near" but rather the end is "here." The end is I believe Tuesday, September 7, 2004 and will be noted by history as such.

All good and bad things must end sometime! Got gold?
American Expression
(09/07/2004; 13:03:45 MDT - Msg ID: 124250)
Eye Popping Gold Calcs: $33,229.93 per ounce
http://www.urbansurvival.com/week.htmI had a little time on Monday to look at the most recent Treasury Department report on U.S. gold holdings, which you can find at: http://www.fms.treas.gov/gold/.

A couple of things pop out when you look at the numbers:

*The Treasury says there are 261,562,868.485 Troy fine ounces of gold.

*They value this at $11,043,759,730.42.

*This means the U.S. implied valuation of its gold stock is about $42 an ounce ($42.22 if you want to be precise about it).

I thought for fun, sport and amusement, it would be interesting to see what gold would be priced at if the price of gold was equal to the financial obligations of the United States?

To get there, I took the accrued Federal Debt:
http://www.publicdebt.treas.gov/opd/opdpenny.htm available from the Treasury Department $7,365,716,545,609.45 and to which I added the Federal Reserves currency in circulation (M-1). $1,326,000,000,000. for a total debt +currency of $8,691,716,545,609.45.

Ask yourself: What would be the value the U.S. government would have to place on its gold stocks if they were to be balanced off against the wildly printed currency thanks to past and present inflations plus the runaway national debt? The answer...

$33,229.93 per ounce.

Going the other way: of the $8.6 trillion of currency in circulation plus piled on debt, using the whole stock of U.S. government owned gold valued at $401 per ounce, we find the government's gold would fetch a mere $104,886,710,262.485. Sure, $104 billion is a tidy sum, but if the government's gold was valued that way, we would still have a debt plus unbacked currency of $8.586 trillion. All these calculations are based on M-1 currency - and the problem gets far worse as you include the digitally created dollars of M-3 and beyond.

With the web bots forecasting gold to rise dramatically in the near future, we can't help by look at our modest gold collection (both coins) and wonder what they will some day be worth.

What should an ounce of gold be worth? There are lots of answers, but here are some I found on the net:

*One ounce should buy a "good man's suit" along with a pair of good shoes and a belt. Assuming this was not a cheapie mall store a good man's suit could be in the $1,000 range today.

*In 1954 an ounce of gold would buy you 12 barrels of oil. If oil stays in the range of $45 that would argue for $540 gold.

*Just correcting inflation from gold's previous high of $850 in 1980 would price it at $2,054.70 an ounce in 2003. You could probably round that up to $2,116 because of the latest year worth of inflation.

*Several decades back, an ounce of gold would buy "the Dow". However, the fact that the Dow is at 10,000+ today doesn't mean gold should be there - it may just be an indication of how wildly over-prices the stock market it.

On the other side, it wasn't that long ago that a $20- bill would buy a $20 gold piece. Today, it takes more than 20 of those same $20 bills to buy one! Another site notes "In 1960 a journeyman carpenter was paid about $6. per hour, for which he could obtain 60 silver dimes at any bank. In 1983 this same carpenter received about $12. Federal Reserve Notes per hour, yet it could only be redeemed for 15 (silver) dimes. His (our) labor is actually being devalued. " http://www.livefree.com/freedomtech/part2.html

Our fear is not so much that gold will go up - it's that when it does go up it will indicate the collapse of something extremely important to the world - confidence in the U.S. dollar. And when that happens, the web bot's description of the economy at coagulating will be upon us.

-END-

Next lets take this calculation one step further and add in approximately all of the unfunded, on and off balance sheet liabilities of $44+ trillion. Our new gold price per oz now exceeds $182K!

Imagine purchasing the "Mona Lisa" for only 20 or 30 ozs of gold.

$400 per oz sounds like darn cheap insurance in these most confusing and chaotic times doesn't it? Physical Gold in hand, get u sum!
Aristotle
(09/07/2004; 13:47:33 MDT - Msg ID: 124251)
Great gangbusters of a day!
Knallgold, ol' bean, I'd say your concluding remark -- "On (A)nother note," -- is onto it.

Remember back during the Gold-juggling acts of the sorry old days of the national Gold Standards? Whenever it seemed that Gold had become undervalued at its present locale it used to be common practice for nations and banks to raise the interest they promised to pay on bonds or deposits in order to seduce the Gold into staying right there at home. Sometimes those higher rates ultimately broke their backs, but hey,,,, if the Gold left they were all Nowheresville and up Shaftcreek anyway, right?

Today the same Let's-Keep-the-Gold game has a completely new face on it now that we're finally off the superficialities of the Standard and living in a time where simple derivatives can be used to bring about the desired effect.

Nowadays if the Gold market is heating up and a run looks likely on the various unallocated accounts and Gold pools, instead of breaking their own backs offering higher rates for deposits, the various vested interests in the game can and do simply sit down hard at crucial moments on the paper/derivative Gold market to suppress the price enough to stifle the common man's desire to join the bandwagon and clamber up for his own share of the fascinating, rising asset.

The problem is that at some point the scheme stops to work to dissuade buyers when the underpriced Gold, viewed against the backdrop of the day, seems more like an opportunist's dream come true than a reflection of an unwanted asset.

They're selling futures (and with it the Gold-price) down the river to create an illusion and I'm not buying it. But I will buy the physical Gold. Like gangbusters!!!

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle
USAGOLD Daily Market Report
(09/07/2004; 14:24:39 MDT - Msg ID: 124252)
Page Update!
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Daily Gold Market Report has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.

----Closing market excerpts----

Gold futures on the Comex remained on the defensive Tuesday; the most-active Dec contract settled $3.10 lower at $399.40 per ounce.

Last week's selling pressure was inspired by the more robust tone of the U.S. dollar and the passing of the Republican National Convention in New York City without terrorist interruption.

With potential buyers happy to scurry to the sidelines during the price descent ahead of the U.S. long weekend, liquidity levels were down on usual levels to help accentuate price movement.

Buyers remained fairly scarce initially Tuesday as the U.S. markets cranked up after the Labor Day break and prepared for a general heightening in overall activity levels following the Northern Hemisphere summer.

However, physical and speculative bargain hunters eventually did emerge Tuesday in the $399 region to prop prices...

-----(see url for access to full news, 24-hr newswire)-----

Selected headlines:

FOREX-Dollar falls as traders cautious on Greenspan -- Reuters.co.uk - Breaking News

Rates Rise in Treasury Bill Auction -- Lycos Finance - News

Fed's McTeer Hopes US Economy Is Beyond Soft Patch -- Nasdaq - Global Markets

US: HP finds formula to turn ink to gold -- ebusinessforum - Global News Analysis

Canadian Dollar Soars As Rate Hike Looms -- Reuters - Business

Inflation is the worst form of taxation -- Manorama online - Business

Major gold producers slash hedge books as price rises -- New Zealand Herald - Business

China Gold -- theminingweb.com

(see url for full text)
Federal_Reserves
(09/07/2004; 14:31:17 MDT - Msg ID: 124253)
American> Better to value gold in terms
of the amount of USD fiat currency or on the high side currency + checking (M1) divided by the oz's owned by the Treasury. Total debt outstanding basis probably not realistic since a US bankruptcy probably is not realistic. But since the 1/2 to 2/3 of the currency is held in foreign hands, they could choose to convert this into gold rather than hold the dollar, and that could drive up the demand for gold.

Using currency or M1, that would be about $2.5k/5k per oz.

I think this is more realistic fair value price.

Good luck.

TownCrier
(09/07/2004; 14:38:31 MDT - Msg ID: 124254)
China Gold
http://www.mineweb.net/sections/gold_silver/345986.htmSept 7 JOHANNESBURG (Mineweb.com) -- GFMS, the precious metals research company, says that another twelve Chinese gold mining companies are preparing to float on the Shanghai bourse, but there is still no sign of any significant investment in China's gold mining industry by foreign miners.

Gold has been mined in China for thousands of years according to the GFMS: The gold market in China. But it was only when government incentives were put in place in the late Seventies that the industry began to boom. "After 1976, gold production effectively doubled every five to ten years, to reach the current plateau of 200 tons per year," says the survey. China is currently the world's fourth-largest gold producer, behind South Africa, the US and Australia.

South Africa, the world's largest gold producer, watches its gold production decline year on year, as its mature mines approach the ends of their lives and new discoveries do little in terms of replacement.

-----(from url)----

The only "sure thing" is the gold that has already been mined and placed solidly in the palm of your hand.

Call USAGOLD~Centennial today and enjoy the benefits of true ownership and security.

R.
TownCrier
(09/07/2004; 14:46:23 MDT - Msg ID: 124255)
HEADLINE: Major gold producers slash hedge books as price rises
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/businessstorydisplay.cfm?storyID=3589784&thesection=business&thesubsection=general8 September 2004 SHANGHAI - Major gold producers, expecting prices to rise towards 16-year highs in the next few months, are slashing their hedge books to take advantage, leading industry officials say.

Barrick Gold, the world's third-largest bullion producer, estimates prices will rise to their highest levels since 1988.

Its chief financial officer, Jamie Sokalsky, said at the global gold conference in Shanghai: "It seems that, for the first time in many years, many factors are bullish for gold. Demand is strong in areas of the world like China, and the US dollar should remain weak."

Sokalsky said gold would move into the "mid-$400s to high-$400s" an ounce range by the end of this year...

Hedging, the selling of yet-to-be-mined nuggets at a preset price to lock in revenue, began falling out of favour as gold prices rose. Hedging protects miners when prices fall, but can backfire when prices increase.

Newmont expected more gold firms that hedged their output to declare bankruptcy as prices rose, (company president Pierre) Lassonde said...

Hedging has been blamed for restricting demand and weakening prices because gold purchasers have already bought unmined metal for future delivery. Removing hedges, on the other hand, stimulates demand.

"We are going to use the volatility of the gold market to continue to reduce our hedge position. I think there's still a lot of de-hedging to be done in the industry," Sokalsky said.

----(from url)----

In all of history the phenomena to acquire have never been called gold walks. Beat the rush -- call USAGOLD today.

R.
misetich
(09/07/2004; 15:44:51 MDT - Msg ID: 124256)
Congress's Analysts See Worsening Deficit
http://news.myway.com/top/article/id/359654|top|09-07-2004::10:46|reuters.htmlSnip:

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. budget deficit will balloon to $2.29 trillion over the next decade, congressional analysts said on Tuesday, a worse outlook than previously forecast and one likely to stir election-year debate about President Bush's economic policies.

The forecast from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office compares to the outlook for a $2.01 trillion deficit for 2005-2014 it provided in March under current economic policies.
.............
The CBO also confirmed a preliminary forecast it put out in August showing an expected record deficit of $422 billion for the 2004 fiscal year.

That compares to the White House's latest deficit forecast of $445 billion for this year. The White House no longer provides a 10-year deficit forecast.
**************
Misetich

The jobless recovery continues - The budget deficit is increasing - record high in 2003-2004 in $ terms - Current Account Deficit is soaring

Baby-boomers retirements are a few years down the road -
Medicare costs are soaring throught the roof

Prudent investors would be wise to add Physical gold to their portfolio

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
misetich
(09/07/2004; 15:55:35 MDT - Msg ID: 124257)
August job-cut plans rose to 6-month high
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5931265/Snip:

NEW YORK - U.S. job cuts rose to a six-month high in August, as some managers remained concerned about the economy's susceptibility to shocks, but hirings also increased by nearly five-fold last month, a report said on Tuesday.
..................
Employment consulting firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc. said employers announced 74,150 layoffs in August, up 6.6 percent from 69,572 in July.

However, hiring plans increased in August to 132,105 from 26,880 in July, with the most hiring announcements made by retailers. Hiring in the retail sector normally picks up in late summer as companies gear up for the holiday season, the report noted.

Yet, many of the retail jobs added over the next few months may disappear by the end of the holiday season next February, said John Challenger, chief executive of the firm.
*************
Misetich

Retailers "are planning" to hire - though inventory are rising and sales declining

Typically job cuts increase MULTIFOLD in the 4th Qtr - thus the August job cuts are a prelude of things to come

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
misetich
(09/07/2004; 16:03:29 MDT - Msg ID: 124258)
Soft patch �mostly behind us� � Fed's McTeer
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5933216/Snip:

DALLAS - The rut hit by the U.S. economy in the second quarter was due in large part to higher oil prices and the country has now moved on, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Robert McTeer said Tuesday.
...........
"I'm hopeful that the soft patch is mostly behind us. I don't see any good reason for the soft patch. I'm sure high energy prices are a big part of it and I'm hopeful they will come down even more than they have," he told reporters after a speech to the Greater Dallas Chamber.

"I expect the third quarter and the fourth quarter to be better than the second quarter," he added.

McTeer also said that with slack in the economy and strong productivity growth "I don't think inflation is going to be a major problem in the next year or so."
*************
Misetich

Buy a SUV - McTeer is getting more humorous as the days go bye -

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
MK
(09/07/2004; 16:13:22 MDT - Msg ID: 124259)
More anecdotal evidence on the building bull market in gold
http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.htmlThis time from a client who in his own right owns a seven figure gold hedge. This story is about some solid advice he have his father.

Why do we think these stories important?

The reasons are as straightforward as gold itself: We want people to begin to see that the whole undercurrent in the investment markets is shifting away from paper assets and toward real things and that many people are already reaping benefits. We believe, too, that many more will benefit as we proceed through this first decade of the 21st century. The anecdotal evidence reinforces the forecast.

We counsel a firm and steady hand on the rudder. Make acquisitions now and don't let the iterim ups and downs deter you from laying in that hedge. It is the true believers who will be the most richly rewarded. This story, like the one in today's Client Letter, is another satisfying example:

__________

I read the article in the newsletter about one of MK's clients' buying 1
million of gold 4 years ago and it now being worth 1.5 million. I have a
similar true story if you would like to use it. About 4 years ago I talked
my father into converting about a third of his cash into gold, mostly pre-33
Sovereigns. I bought for him from CPM approximately $80,000 when spot gold was about $290. He had the rest of his money in 1-2% CD's in the bank.

My father passed away recently and I am executor. He willed my brother $250,000 which was essentially all of his gold and cash. I gave my brother the gold along with the bank CD's. While the CD's had earned barely a pittance in those 4 years the gold had become 41% more valuable.

So instead of receiving $250,000 my brother really received about $282,800 ($80,000 x 141% = $112,800 or + $32,800). Had my father converted all his paper money to gold my brother would have received $352,500. Ironically my father was very conservative and didn't like to gamble. In this case his biggest gamble was watching those CD's smolder and not acquiring real money- gold." (Name witheld by request.)
_________________

Those of you who fit the description of prospective clientele are invited to go to the link above and sign-up for our information packet which will get started on the road to gold ownership. You will also receive our e-mailed weekly Client Letter on a temporary basis. I believe there is a good chance you will become a success story yourself, if you act deliberately and now while the price is still low. (Established clients receive the Client Letter as an on-going service.)

P. S. Thanks to all the posters who asked to be put on the list. We approved all the requests today from a fine group of posters. Good to hear from you. By the way if you didn't catch the note over the weekend: If you are a regular poster and you don't receive the Client Letter now, you are eligible for the client list as a regular poster. Please contact Jill either by phone or email, and please provide your posting handle. (That's how we know you.)

800-869-5115 Extension 104, or

jill@usagold.com



MK
(09/07/2004; 16:18:48 MDT - Msg ID: 124260)
By the way. . . .
Many thanks to both clients for allowing us to share their true gold stories with our many readers.
Smeagol
(09/07/2004; 17:42:39 MDT - Msg ID: 124261)
Pray tell us, precious... what is the 'most requessted' one ounce bullion coin at USAGOLD, and the 'most ssold' (if it is different)? And of all the bullion and/or other coins, is there one which is mosst preferred world-wide? Jusst curious...

As for trying to figure out a price for It based on current debts/liabilities... would not ssome of that debt, maybe a large part of it, be written down, or off entirely, in the process of It being revalued?

More paper gold = a lower gold price, right? Bring it on! We wants to buy more of It!

S.
Smeagol
(09/07/2004; 18:13:27 MDT - Msg ID: 124262)
FOA checklist from four years ago
FOA (4/26/2000; 7:45:41MT - usagold.com msg#19) [partial copy]

[our words in brackets - S.]

Again,,,,,

Breaking the dollar's hold on world reserve status means forcing it into a major price inflation at the end of it's timeline. [in progress] This is done by tying the hands of policy makers so they can only create (pump) more dollar assets into the world system. [check!] That "tying of hands" is done by creating for the first time an alternative currency structure that does not fail from continued dollar "crisis strength" or "crisis weakness". [working on it, Cap'n!] The world economy will run to just such a system [the Euro] as their current system (the dollar) fails.

The US is now trapped because they cannot lower rates to bring down dollar exchange rates without gunning their stock market and economy into an obvious hyper inflation. [check!] Yet, they cannot raise rates any further without causing a complete landslide of investors into using the lower cost Euro system. [check!]

Hence the little 1/4 point rate rises Alan is doing. He and the dollar are now trapped from all the outstanding dollar debt in the world. [check!] The whole mountain is now slowly sliding down the slope as we watch. Is it no wonder that gold leaves our shores in record amounts.

In the past, no one would rock the boat in such an obvious way as the ECB / BIS is doing because everyone would lose as the dollar eventually was discarded. But today, the Euro Zone system has taken a second step to backup their Euro banking reserve structure when the fall comes.

In an ever so obvious event they told the world that the Dollar based world paper gold markets are "on the road" to being phased out. That event was the Washington Agreement. If you have read my earlier "trail walks", you know how this action is slowly drying up supportive gold supply that gives credibility to the paper gold markets. [is the gradual lessening of CB sales part of this?] The eventual outcome of this is to allow the current contract markets to be supported by the US and it's backers alone. To date, without world support there is not enough gold supply to keep these contracts at par with spot bullion prices.
In a desperate attempt to keep dollar gold prices from spiking, the dollar faction must inflate it's contract market [paper-gold] to the same extent that the dollar itself is being created. [Welcome aboard, China!] Without this paper supply, the paper gold markets would show a discount to physical just as world dollar debt would discount dollar price inflation without more created dollars to buy existing debt supply.

The stage is now set for a fall in the dollar [in progress] and a corresponding leap in the "dollar reserve replacement value" of gold held in the BIS system. The point is clear for all to see,,,,,,,, when a crashing dollar exchange rate comes from dollar price hyper inflation,,,,,, and drains world liquidity and value from dollar holdings,,,,,,,,,,, gold and Euros will fill that void. The Euro system is completely braced to accept a US self induced transition of world reserve status from the dollar into Euros. It's no accident that the breaking of the world gold market structure and dollar price inflation will come about just as the Euro comes to center stage. Euro depth grows every day and brings in ever more players seeking opperations value.

Now you know what "Another" has know for some time. Now you know why gold is and must rise far, far higher than anyone expects or predicts. Now you know why our paper gold contract market is about to fail as a "freegold" physical market takes over. [but not quite yet] Gold in the many, many thousands is in our future as the transition to Euro reserve status is set to begin. [if It isn't taken [stolen (in the USA) - again!]

Smeagol
(09/07/2004; 19:54:18 MDT - Msg ID: 124263)
320-360 = 360-400?
...we have been wondering (as always)... in Another's Archives we ssee references to a 320-360 dollar price-band that was to be 'esstablished' by ssome Powers for ssetting up the transition to the Euro. A few years pass... today, new paper-gold markets are popping up all over the place... purposely done perhapss, to quell It's recent jumpiness and bring the paper-price of It back into the 360-400 range, which may be today's falling-dollar-value equivalent?

S.
Shermag
(09/07/2004; 21:00:11 MDT - Msg ID: 124264)
Haiku
Paper blows with wind.
Never to be seen again.
Gold in hand holds fast.

Paper rots in rain.
Mould the only matter left.
Gold forever shines.

Paper burns in fire.
Ashes left to mark the loss.
Real gold shields the flame.

Haiku, haiku very much.
Goldendome
(09/07/2004; 21:08:08 MDT - Msg ID: 124265)
China's Depression
http://64.29.208.119/archive_comm_article.asp?category=Guest+Commentary&content_idx=35772
The author here, makes a parallel comparison between Great Britain and the United States of the 1920's, and the United States and China currently. He points out the comparable paths that the U.S. (then) and China (now) are taking toward the dominant economic power of the time.

For example:
1. Running continual trade surpluses while propping the currency of the weakening giant by buying it's bonds and supporting the currency.
2. Using the reserve status of the old powers currency to inflate it's own and expand it's credit and thereby it's industry.
3. Using it's export status to artificially bolster it's own employment picture, ultimately leading to it's own over capacity.
4. The over capacity leading to disastrous liquidations triggered by a number of possible downturns.

This author thinks that the Chinese will go to whatever lengths possible to keep the race going until after the summer Olympics of 2008. However, he points out some of the other many accidents that may short circuit their plans; three being: a severe run-up in raw material prices against their pegged currency, a rocket shoot in oil prices, or a derivitives market accident!
Shermag
(09/07/2004; 21:41:14 MDT - Msg ID: 124266)
More
Paper hats and boats,
Useful only for the day.
Gold is good for life.

Paper tears from load.
Tatters all around your feet.
Gold can take the strain.

Paper soon becomes
Lining for the birdies cage.
Gold retains its worth.
Dollar Bill
(09/07/2004; 22:28:52 MDT - Msg ID: 124267)
(No Subject)
Sir GAB, your onto something methinks.
Sir Smeagol, FOA then !
Waverider
(09/07/2004; 22:48:06 MDT - Msg ID: 124268)
Aristotle
http://www.thestandard.com.hk/thestandard/news_detail_frame.cfm?articleid=50654∫catid=2Aristotle - you Sir, (once again) have hit the nail on the head! What struck me about the article (link)is the focus on (future) electronic trading in China. Do JP Morgan et al really believe that individual Chinese investors will *buy* this? While Americans (generally) have very limited appreciation for Gold bullion and (generally) buy gold proxies for investment purposes, the Chinese have historically bought Gold bullion because of their *cultural appreciation for Gold* and for emotional reasons. I would think that it's likely that the majority of individual Chinese with their 12 trillion yuan are on your side Aristotle - they're not going to be easily seduced into fast 'n easy paper trades that negate their deep tradition of Gold bullion ownership. If the CBs think that they can impact/control/dilute Chinese Gold demand through the paper market/electronic currency supply, they may have a bigger challenge on their hands than they bargained for. Cheers.

Waverider

Shermag - Haiku, haiku to you too!! :)
Chris Powell
(09/07/2004; 23:39:52 MDT - Msg ID: 124269)
Even UBS gold analyst John Reade ...
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/2371... is starting to sound like GATA.


To subscribe to GATA's dispatches, send an e-mail to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

Sundeck
(09/08/2004; 04:09:24 MDT - Msg ID: 124270)
China Gold
Waverider and Aristotle

To me the interesting thing is that, taken at face value, China's central bank governor, Zhou Xiaochuan, appears to be overtly encouraging the people to "trade in gold as an INVESTMENT" (my emphasis). What a contrast to the CB governors of some other countries. Can you imagine Mr Greenspan doing same?

Now why would the Chinese government want their people to increase their "investment" in gold when the heavy emphasis in the highly-financially-innovative western countries is just the opposite - i.e. encouragement towards "high-performing" leveraged derivative paper etc etc?

Does the government want gold - the great wealth-storage concentrator (or "capacitor" in electronic jargon) - to help share in the peoples' saving and investment portfolios to take pressure off speculative real-estate and other inflating assets??

Does it hint (loudly) at the Chinese government's policy towards the US dollar and the eventual floating of the Yuan??

Thoughts out there? Belgian?

:-)

Sundeck
(09/08/2004; 04:21:52 MDT - Msg ID: 124271)
Chris Powell"s "digital rabbits"
I just read Cris Powell's latest #124269 in which the amusing metaphor appears likening the US dollar's reproductive profligacy to that of "digital rabbits" - ho ho ho....very droll indeed...

...provides something for Spot and Spike to chase around the hills?

Perhaps the cartoonists out there could have some fun with the "digital rabbit" concept.

;-)

Socrates964
(09/08/2004; 04:32:03 MDT - Msg ID: 124272)
Thought for the Day
"It is more than evidently clear that the most cost-effective, most transparent, most liquid, and most heavily beneficially regulated market is still the Comex in New York."

Leonard Kaplan's latest column.

One thing about him is his consistency. He always bets with COT, then when gold breaks out, he writes a grovelling 'what was I thinking?' apology and then immediately goes back to his bad old ways.

Meanwhile, we hear that Tim Wood has run for the hills and now Barrick is more bullish on gold than GATA. How times change.

Actually, the one problem I have with GATA's world view is their apparent belief that gold will go up because the forces of darkness are overpowered by the forces of sound money. As a jaded old Latino, I suspect the game 'up there' is the same as the one played endlessly 'down here' - get your man into the Central Bank, make sure he applies the wrong monetary policy - bet against it. While the dollar is the counterpoint to crappy 3rd world currencies, the only effective counterpoint to the dollar are real assets, so in my view, gold's value lies not in the fact that it is quasi-money, but that it is anti-money - i.e. a proxy for real assets. Hence Wall Street will pour into gold as a way of closing out their bet against the Fed.


Socrates964
(09/08/2004; 04:48:52 MDT - Msg ID: 124273)
Sundeck
Conventional wisdom is that the Yuan is undervalued and would immediately shoot up if made convertible. Now imagine the opposite - that it actually sinks, either by accident (because of meltdown in China's financial system) or design (because China needs to pour money into agriculture/keeping the peasants happy).

How do you keep the newly rich on side - by giving them a way of protecting their savings, but not one tied to the dollar, since if the devaluation of the yuan is by design, it probably will come as a response to the implosion of the dollar. In a way, this is a continuation of a previous policy. Note that all Communist countries had hard-currency shops for imported and premium goods, but as far as I'm aware, only China issued its own 'hard currency' (FECs), whereas the USSR/E Bloc countries just took other people's currencies.

It may be the case that the really big accumulators of gold are the traditional anti-globalization forces in China, hence they create an efficient mechanism for accumulating gold, but dress it up as a piece of financial market deregulation to hoodwink the West, knowing that the gold bought by the private sector will only be a small proportion of total gold inflows.
Clink!
(09/08/2004; 06:52:32 MDT - Msg ID: 124274)
Gobsmacked !!
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3036789/I don't usually watch Scarborough Country because I find the party political spin put on everything to be, to put it mildly, tiresome. The facts, just the facts, please ! In fact, if you go to his home page, you will see that one of his sponsors is the RNC ! (Just as well MSNBC does try to say that their reporting is fair and balanced ....)

So imagine my surprise when the ten second intro sounded as interesting as (and very similar to) an hour at the Table. They were going to talk about the deficits, lambast Congress for spending "like drunken sailors" (I kid you not, that really was a quotation !) and GWB for not having objected to any spending in his entire term. And they did, for the whole hour of the program. With help from Pat Robertson, Pete Petersen (author of Running on Empty), Mark Sanford (Governor of S. Carolina) and others. Starting with the basic premise that there is a brick wall across the USA's path in the very near future, due not only to the deficits but also the unfunded liabilities of Medicaid and Social Security, each contibutor was allowed to talk slowly and calmly for almost the entire section between ads. There were no shouting matches, reasoned disagreements, incredulity that neither main party is talking about this, lack of auditing of entire departments, etc.

OK, there were some cheap shots, like not only are the Republicans overspending, but the Democrats are complaining that they aren't spending enough (not entirely true - Kerry is the one who mentioned a balanced budget in his acceptance speech), but overall a fine presentation from people who seem to know what they are talking about.

And the kicker ? Apparently, there had been a massive flood of emails during the show. He felt that they had only just scratched the surface and invited the whole group back for another go around in the very near future. As in this week ! (The link allows you to see what's on in the day's program.)

C!

PS. In all fairness, even though I find his abrasive snottiness personally offensive, he may actually have written an interesting book, Rome Wasn't Burnt in a Day. You can read an excerpt at the link too.
Clink!
(09/08/2004; 07:10:51 MDT - Msg ID: 124275)
Transcripts
I have just noticed that there is a Read Transcripts link off the page in my last post, but, as of this hour, the most recent is Monday's. Maybe later today.
C!
American Expression
(09/08/2004; 08:04:28 MDT - Msg ID: 124276)
Congress Analysts See Worse Long-Term Deficit
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=578&ncid=578&e=18&u=/nm/20040907/ts_nm/congress_deficit_dc

SNIP:

The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (news - web sites) also confirmed a preliminary forecast made in August for a $422 billion deficit for the 2004 fiscal year. That number was better than earlier expectations but still sets a new record.

-END SNIP-

I need your help! The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office preliminarily reports the Federal Deficit to be around $422 billion for fiscal year 2004. However my math skills indicate that the real current deficit will be over $583 billion! Whats wrong with this equation???

The "Debt to the Penny" reports current Federal Debt as of 09/03/2004:

$7,366,776,167,570.79

The "Debt to the Penny" reports end of year "2003" Federal Debt as of 09/30/2003:

$6,783,231,062,743.62

Next we subtract the current "growing" 2004 debt from the 2003 end of year debt using basic math skills and we find the current deficit is:

$583,545,104,827.17

SOURCE: BUREAU OF THE PUBLIC DEBT
http://www.publicdebt.treas.gov/opd/opdpenny.htm

"GOVERNMENT ECONOMIC REPORTS: THING'S YOU'VE SUSPECTED
BUT WERE AFRAID TO ASK! -- FEDERAL DEFICIT REALITY"

*U.S. Treasury Shows Actual 2003 Federal Deficit at $3.7 Trillion
*Deficit Moves Beyond Any Possible Tax Remedy
*Could U.S. Treasuries Face a Rating Downgrade?

SNIP:

"The U.S. government's fiscal ills have spun wildly out of control and no longer are containable within the existing system. As detailed in this article, the actual annual shortfall in U.S. government operations for fiscal year 2003 (September 30) was $3.7 trillion. Put in perspective, that means if the U.S. Treasury had seized all wages and salaries in 2003 with a 100% income tax, there still would have been a deficit! The outlook for fiscal 2004 numbers is even worse."

http://www.gillespieresearch.com/cgi-bin/s/article/id=278

"No constitutional right exists under the Ninth Amendment, or to any other provision of the Constitution of the United States, �to trust the Federal Government and to rely on the integrity of its pronouncements.�" - MAPCO, Inc. v Carter (1978, Em Ct App) 573 F2d 1268, cert den 437 us 904, 57 L Ed 2d 1134, 98 S Ct 3090.

"You have to choose between trusting to the natural stability of gold and the natural stability of the honesty and intelligence of the members of the Government. And, with due respect for these gentlemen, I advise you, as long as the Capitalist system lasts, to vote for gold." --George Bernard Shaw

"Of all the contrivances for cheating the laboring classes of mankind, none has been more effective than that which deludes them with paper money." --Daniel Webster

DYODD. "Good luck in the future."
American Expression
(09/08/2004; 08:17:16 MDT - Msg ID: 124277)
You Are What You Eat?
http://www.safehaven.com/article-1936.htmSNIP:

One myth I have found it necessary to 'discard' is that the capitalist system as we currently 'know it' is constituted of free markets. I find this necessary because I live in the real world. Regulator's insistence that our markets are "free" started off leaving a very sour taste in my mouth. Now, I can no longer swallow it at all. A large and continuously growing body of irrefutable evidence points to abuse at the highest levels and outright fraud. It suggests that our once sacrosanct financial markets and economic reporting at the core of the capitalist system might actually be a huge ponzi-scheme. As sure as vodka comes in three or more flavors, my current level of understanding is that financial markets are rigged and managed to such an extent that it would make the central planners of the former Soviet system jealously drunk with envy.

We now live in a world where people applaud and cheer when the value of their paper assets and baubles appreciate in value yet hiss with disdain when the price of oil (energy) does likewise? We are told that inflation is non-existent or benign - yet everything meaningful costs more? Jobs are supposedly being created hand over fist and are plentiful - unless you are trying to find one? We are told that the National debt/consumer debt and leverage is no reason for concern - yet interest rates are held at 'emergency' low levels? We are told that our economy is strong - yet we increasingly sell less to the rest of the world and the dollar declines?

-END SNIP-

"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again, and again, and again -- and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law ... The same Nature which delights in periodical repetition in the sky is the Nature which orders the affairs of the earth. Let us not underrate the value of that hint." -- Mark Twain

Cometose
(09/08/2004; 08:53:47 MDT - Msg ID: 124278)
Law of Periodic reptition ...........
That which has been is that which was before............

I think Solomon recieved these words and
wrote them down in Ecclesiastes.............

I wonder how he knew that Law..........hmmmmm
How did he know............

Nice ot have these pillars of Wisdom from the
past to help Light and Lighten our way
Cometose
(09/08/2004; 09:36:58 MDT - Msg ID: 124279)
Seismic activity morn'
I don't know why Jim Sinclair market yesterday as the turning point......I know yesterday was a Fibonacci day according to McHugh relative to Market Indexes highs and lows..........

I did see what I consider to be a Seismic event between the close yesterday and the present ....

The options on the December 430 calls swooned toward the close yesterday ; they dropped 14 % from 35 to 30 in an instant on little or no movement on the Gold SPot price side. It was as if the guys selling them down knew there was more downside in the overnight action to this morning......

Then in the Euro market the Euro dropped from 121.31 yesterday afternoon to 120.35 this morning appx 4am Mountain time .....my phone rang and woke me up ...I thought it was an emergency at first until I found that my teenager was in bed.

A few minutes ago upon the turn in the gold price ....
I have found that the EURO has completely recovered from it's overnight drop and is now trading at 121.35 and the Dec Gold 430 calls have recovered from a low of 25 to 35 now a 40% turnaround from the the low or 25 and all around this apparent pivot in the GOLD PRICE .

Over the same period the Canadian dollar has languished only marginally.
The day is not over but it looks interesting with regard to the apparent Bottom Pushing Gold Options and Currency traders........

Perhaps Dr Know and Chung Fat are going to process their buy orders soon ........
If so this is might be a great opportunity to make GOld and Silver purchases........Spot silver dropped 7.5 % since the open yesterday ........another Bottom Pushing maneuver perhaps...........shake the tree and take the gold , Euros, silver positions from the weak hands........

We will see ........some more......
American Expression
(09/08/2004; 09:54:16 MDT - Msg ID: 124280)
Remarks by Chairman Alan Greenspan
http://www.federalreserve.gov/board...0/200010192.htm
"Whether we choose to acknowledge it or not, all policy rests, at least implicitly, on a forecast of a future that we can know only in probabilistic terms. Even monetary policy rules that use recent economic outcomes or money supply growth rates presuppose that the underlying historical structure from which the rules are derived will remain unchanged in the future. But such a forecast is as uncertain as any. This uncertainty is particularly acute for rules based on money growth. To be sure, inflation is at root a monetary phenomenon. Indeed, it is, by definition, a fall in the value of money relative to the value of goods and services. But as technology continues to revolutionize our financial system, the identification of particular claims as money, near money, or a store of future value has become exceedingly difficult. Although it is surely correct to conclude that an excess of money relative to output is the fundamental source of inflation, what specifically constitutes money is a notion that has, so far, eluded our analysis. We cope with this uncertainty by ensuring that money growth, by any reasonable definition, does not reach outside the limits of perceived prudence. But we have difficulty defining those limits with precision, and within any such limits, there remains significant scope for discretion in setting policy. In history, discretionary monetary policy, of course, has not been without its shortcomings, and the dominant force of accelerating productivity has made our current task of policy calibration especially daunting. Policymakers, in fact all forecasters, invariably construct working hypotheses or models of the way our economies work. Of necessity, these models are a major simplification of the many forces that govern the functioning of our system at any point in time. --Alan Greenspan, Challenges for monetary policymakers At the 18th Annual Monetary Conference: Monetary Policy in the New Economy, Cato Institute, Washington, D.C. October 19, 2000

"But as technology continues to revolutionize our financial system, the identification of particular claims as money, near money, or a store of future value has become exceedingly difficult."

My how times have changed!

GOLD AND ECONOMIC FREEDOM
BY ALAN PRINTSALOT

"If men had no means to store value, i.e., to save, neither long-range planning nor exchange would be possible.

As the supply of money (of claims) increases relative to the supply of tangible assets in the economy, prices must eventually rise. Thus the earnings saved by the productive members of the society lose value in terms of goods. When the economy's books are finally balanced, one finds that this loss in value represents the goods purchased by the government for welfare or other purposes with the money proceeds of the government bonds financed by bank credit expansion.

In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation.

The financial policy of the welfare state requires that there be no way for the owners of wealth to protect themselves.

This is the shabby secret of the welfare statists' tirades against gold. Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process. It stands as a protector of property rights. If one grasps this, one has no difficulty in understanding the statists' antagonism toward the gold standard.

http://www.usagold.com/gildedopinion/Greenspan.html
Shermag
(09/08/2004; 10:44:39 MDT - Msg ID: 124281)
Daily Haihu
Comex gives a gift.
Yellow at a discount price.
Hurry while it lasts.
eccentricventures
(09/08/2004; 10:52:38 MDT - Msg ID: 124282)
Is further comment necessary?
I just saw 2 news items on my stock quotes page. "Greenspan says economy has gotten some traction," and "Delta Airlines to cut 7000 jobs." Am I missing something?
TownCrier
(09/08/2004; 11:08:13 MDT - Msg ID: 124283)
Instant money
Fed funds market trading at FOMC target, Fed's NY trading desk adds anyway -- $4.5 billion through eight-day repos. Through this easy process the commercial banking system shall suffer no lack of liquidity. Ever.

Validate your savings efforts through gold. Call USAGOLD~Centennial today.

R.
misetich
(09/08/2004; 11:17:21 MDT - Msg ID: 124284)
News from the land of OZ: Greenspan: Economy Regaining Traction
http://custom.marketwatch.com/custom/myway-com/news-story.asp?guid={56724D15-D3DB-4246-865D-595500EA23CE}Snip:

"The most recent data suggest that, on the whole, the expansion has regained some traction," the U.S. central bank chairman told the House of Representatives Budget Committee.
.............
"Despite the rise in oil prices through mid-August, inflation and inflation expectations have eased in recent months," Greenspan said.
.......................
Greenspan warned that a return to structural deficits would mean higher interest rates.

"We must not get close to that kind of scenario," Greenspan said.
**************
Misetich

Now back to reality:

Retail Sales - Sept 8

Snip:

The back-to-school season is more and more looking like a flop this year. The ICSC-UBS weekly store sales index was unchanged in the September 4 week compared with the prior week.

Year-on-year, sales were up only 2.1 percent in the week and up a little better 2.6 percent in the prior week. Forget about calendar effects tied to a late Labor Day, sales over this two week period are poor.
................
End of Snip

On the labor front

Delta to Cut Up to 7,000 Jobs

On the inflation front

Energy Bills Soar in Europe as Wholesale Costs Bite

(of course no such thing is happening in the US according to Sir Greenspan)

On the Budget Deficit

"Government Economic Reports: Things You've Suspected but Were Afraid to Ask! -- Federal Deficit Reality"

http://www.gillespieresearch.com/cgi-bin/s/article/id=278

Snip:

The U.S. government's fiscal ills have spun wildly out of control and no longer are containable within the existing system. As detailed in this article, the actual annual shortfall in U.S. government operations for fiscal year 2003 (September 30) was $3.7 trillion. Put in perspective, that means if the U.S. Treasury had seized all wages and salaries in 2003 with a 100% income tax, there still would have been a deficit! The outlook for fiscal 2004 numbers is even worse.
..............

Nearly four decades ago, President Lyndon Johnson's political sensitivities led him and the Congress to slough off some of the costs of an escalating Vietnam War through the use of accounting gimmicks. To mask the rapid growth in the federal government's budget deficit, revenues from the surplus being generated by Social Security taxes were added into the general cash fund, without making any accounting allowance for the accompanying and increasing Social Security liabilities. This accounting-gimmicked reporting was dubbed "unified" budget accounting.

The government's accounting then, as it is now, was on a cash basis, reflecting cash revenues versus cash expenditures. There were no accruals made for monies owed by or due to the government at some time in the future.
.....................
The gimmicked accounting standards, as established during the Johnson era, and as used today for official, unified budget reporting, show a 2003 deficit of $374.3 billion. Using GAAP reporting (without Social Security reporting), the official GAAP deficit for 2003 expands to $665.0 billion. Including accounting for Social Security and related areas, the 2003 deficit balloons to $3,702 billion, or $3.7 trillion.[2] The accounting reflects no adjustment for the new, more expensive Medicare program.

As an aside, if you download[3] a copy of the financial statements, the GAO's auditor's letter as to why they won't certify the statements is an expos� of significant financial mismanagement within the federal government.

Beyond the $3.7 trillion deficit in 2003, however, the numbers get even worse, because the shadow deficit has been taking its toll ever since the Johnson era. According to the Treasury's 2003 financial statement, the U.S. government has a negative net worth of $34.8 trillion. That $34.8 trillion reflects $36.2 trillion in financial liabilities offset by $1.4 trillion in assets, of which only $0.4 trillion are liquid.

Part of the underlying reality-the actual operating cash shortfall-is reflected in the growth of the federal debt. During fiscal 2003, for example, gross federal debt increased from $6.2 trillion to $6.8 trillion, or by $600 billion, against the unified $374 billion deficit. As of the end of August 2004, the debt had increased to $7.3 trillion.

While gross federal debt is at a record, relentlessly pushing against borrowing ceilings, the markets, press and politicians generally ignore that portion of the debt borrowed from Social Security and similar programs. So, the September 30, 2003 debt level commonly is reported as only the $3.9 trillion owed to the public, instead of the total $6.8 billion. Again, the more accurate GAAP estimate of total government liabilities is $36.2 trillion.

2004 Results

Results for the official 2004 deficit will be published in the next several months, and the numbers are projected by the Bush administration to be significantly worse than in 2003, $445 billion versus $374 billion, with the actual deficit likely to near $4.3 trillion (my estimate). The 2004 GAAP financial statements on the government will not be published until March/April 2005.

GAAP-Based GAAP-Based
Fiscal "Official" Deficit Without Deficit With
Year Deficit Soc. Sec., Etc. Soc. Sec., Etc.
------------------------------------------------------------
2004 est. $445 Billion $800 Billion $4.3 Trillion
2003 $374 Billion $665 Billion $3.7 Trillion
2002 $158 Billion $365 Billion $1.5 Trillion
------------------------------------------------------------
******************
End of snips

Enroneconomics is alive and well, put in practice and continued by the politicos

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
Great Albino Bat
(09/08/2004; 11:30:07 MDT - Msg ID: 124285)
Sundeck: Depends what you call "investment" in gold....

Sundeck, you rwote earlier:

"China's central bank governor, Zhou Xiaochuan, appears to be overtly encouraging the people to "trade in gold as an INVESTMENT" (my emphasis). What a contrast to the CB governors of some other countries. Can you imagine Mr Greenspan doing same?"

First of all, I may be mistaken, but I think I recall seeing that the CB governor is a Trilateral Commission member. If so, watch out for what "Chinese demand" for gold means!

The Chinese are the world's most inveterate gamblers, they go to gambling like bees to honey. If there is a kind of "COMEX" set up in China, it will become the next instrument for control of the price of physical, by luring the Chinese gambler into "betting" on gold via futures that are never delivered.

Which of these three, does NOT belong with the others:

a) Trilateral Commission membership
b) Comex gold trading
c) Physical gold ownership

We'll have to wait and see what develops in China.

The GAB



USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(09/08/2004; 11:33:14 MDT - Msg ID: 124286)
A risk-free request, helping you enter the gold market with grace and confidence.
http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html

Get a head start on the gold market!
mikal
(09/08/2004; 12:06:07 MDT - Msg ID: 124287)
@GAB
The question I ask myself is similar to yours: Do the paper markets as we know them, western style, poorly regulated and undercapitalized, survive?
And if Comex fails to deliver
on its promises as I expect, that'll forever change the definition of hedging. Will they partake of a larger crisis in the world economy that amplifies the message for generations to come?
It's just a question of time.
One need only look at the bassakwards action in recent months and again today to come to the same conclusion:
US Bonds are up when they're expected to be down, and rates are down. Dollar is down but not by much. Equities little change. CRB, oil, silver down again when they'd really be up but rangebound. Gold on a leash, etc. According to this behavior, among others, a critical stage has been entered and merely awaits a climax.
Regards
TownCrier
(09/08/2004; 12:23:21 MDT - Msg ID: 124288)
Read the road ahead...
From Chairman Greenspan's testimony today:

"[T]he prospects for the federal budget over the longer term remain troubling. As yet, concerns about the budget do not appear to have left a noticeable imprint on the financial markets."

Make adjustments to your portfolio before the "noticeable imprint" adversely weighs on your yet favorable ability to shift among sectors into a safe harbor of gold.

R.
Socrates964
(09/08/2004; 15:01:35 MDT - Msg ID: 124289)
TownCrier
Sounds like Sir Alan is back in carpet-pulling mode. Will Baby Bush get the same treatment as Daddy? Sure sounds like it to me. LOL!
USAGOLD Daily Market Report
(09/08/2004; 15:01:54 MDT - Msg ID: 124290)
Page Update!
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Daily Gold Market Report has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.

----closing market excerpts-----

Gold rebounds back above $401

Gold futures on the Comex rebounded from an early dip to four-week lows to back above the $401 per ounce mark on fund and dealer short covering Wednesday spurred by the U.S. dollar's sharp decline in the wake of comments by Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan.

The most active Dec contract settled $2 higher at $401.40 per ounce.

The dollar had been higher in anticipation of Greenspan's testimony before the House Budget Panel, rising toward the top of its recent range versus the euro and applying pressure to gold prices early in the Comex session.

But when it was clear that Greenspan, in his prepared remarks, offered no major change to his economic assessment or its implied interest-rate outlook, investors sold the dollar and returned attention to its alternatives such as gold.

----(see url for access to full news, 24-hr newswire)----

CURRENT HEADLINES:

Individuals can trade in gold in China -- The Himalayan Times - Business

Tracking Inflation -- The Financial Express - Edits & Columns

Robber seizes gold, money -- Jakarta Post - City News

Rupee ends stronger on bunched up dollar inflows -- deepikaglobal.com - Business

A Management Professor in Bahrain: Helping to Reform One Country's Economy -- Knowledge at Wharton

Dollar slides on Greenspan remarks -- Yahoo! US - Economy

Gold futures get late boost -- Hemscott - Today's AFX News
TownCrier
(09/08/2004; 15:14:50 MDT - Msg ID: 124291)
Individuals can trade in gold in China
http://www.thehimalayantimes.com/fullstory.asp?filename=aBXaza0rbqzpda0Pa2sa.axamal&folder=aBDasaian729&Name=Business&dtSiteDate=20040909&sImageFileName=(AP) Shanghai, September 8 -- China's gold-crazed masses will be allowed to trade in the precious yellow metal under reforms that will upgrade trading on the country's nascent market...

Trading in gold will provide another choice for individual investors who keep their money stashed in bank accounts due to a lack of desirable investment options, the official Xinhua News Agency cited the central bank governor, Zhou Xiaochuan, as saying.

Trading by individual investors would unlock some of the $145 billion now kept idle in bank savings accounts, Zhou said.

The Shanghai Gold Exchange, the country's only gold market, opened in October 2002. Although two pilot projects have been launched for futures trading, most transactions are still spot dealings...

In late June, the Shanghai market began allowing trading in 50-gm bars, lowering the threshold for investors...

Transactions on the Shanghai Gold Exchange totaled 235.35 tonnes valued at $2.7 billion last year.

In the first seven months of this year, trading volume jumped to 363.76 tonnes valued at $4.5 billion...

-----(from url)----

From 235 tonnes over 12 months to 363 tonnes in only seven months, the rising gold appetite among the vast Chinese population is an unmistakable boon to the physical market and bane to the bullion banks... a modern-day gold rush in the making that will not be so easily diverted with leveraged IOUs.

R.
TownCrier
(09/08/2004; 15:28:16 MDT - Msg ID: 124292)
Bahrain amidst change
http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/index.cfm?fa=viewArticle&id=1044(excerpts)
Last year the Middle Eastern country of Bahrain, a small island off the coast of Saudi Arabia, asked Wharton management professor Peter Cappelli for advice on how to reform its labor markets...

Because of its open, tolerant government, Bahrain has been spared much of the civil unrest and fundamentalist upheaval experienced by a number of other Muslim countries. "But if unemployment continues to increase, you could easily imagine that Bahrain, too, could have problems," Cappelli says.

King Hamad is attempting to diversify the country's economy, which, like many in the Middle East, has long depended on oil. Bahrain was one of the first Middle Eastern countries to suck black gold from its sands, but because of a limited supply, it may also be the first to run out. Some predictions say its wells will run dry in as little as a decade. As Cappelli notes, "They can't float the economy on oil anymore."

Bahrain invested its oil wealth prudently. It developed one of the Middle East's better educational systems, thereby helping to create a white-collar workforce that enabled it to become a Middle Eastern banking center. In some ways, banking represents a return to the country's past. During the Bronze Age, the archipelago was the home of the Dilmun trading empire, thanks to its location along the trade routes linking Mesopotamia and the Indus Valley. It was then a lush oasis in an increasingly arid region....

----(from url)----

A decent horizon broadener of familiar economic issues facing the world.

R.
Ned
(09/08/2004; 17:26:13 MDT - Msg ID: 124293)
GAB, Sundeck, T.C.
Appropriately said GAB, "We'll have to wait and see what develops in China."

Although there has been good news with the new 'physical' market it seems things might be going a little off base w/ the new proposed 'paper' market, no?

The second thing that has always confused me is the cry for the Chinese currency to be deshackled from the USD. Aparently most believe the USD to fall and the Chinese currency to appreciate. So if I was a Chinese person with an appreciating currency do I really want gold?

I don't see this call for Chinese to buy gold because of the appreciating currency thing. Am I missing something?

TIA

Gold Fella
(09/08/2004; 18:03:25 MDT - Msg ID: 124294)
Soros - this is an interesting post I found on the Newmont board
George Soros seems to be running his dollar
attack through Boeing. He has between $1/4B
to $1/2B invested in Jet Blue. Follow this
train back to currencies:
Jet Blue uses European AirBuses almost
exclusively. JetBlue is engaged taking
away the most lucrative routes away from
United, American, and Delta, all owners
of substantial Boeing fleets, partially
financed by Boeing. These and other
American carriers are all under duress
and may go under, especially with the
help of Jet Blue.
If the US majors go under, Boeing may
get sucked into the whirlpool. Ask yourself
why did Boeing move its HQ to Chicago?
Two of its biggest customers, United
and American are in Chicago.
What is the currency impact of Boeing going
under? Boeing can be around 7% of the
US trade exports depending on the airplane
purchase cycle. Basically if Boeing goes
under the US will be left with a seriously
debilited balance of payments.
Bottom line, if Boeing goes under, Soros
wins when the dollar dies. Imagine the US
air transport infrastructure dependent on
Europe? The end of the dollar and the
adoption of the Euro in the US. Ask yourself:
What does George Soros know about the US
airline industry and why would he invest?
He is afterall a currency trader.
TownCrier
(09/08/2004; 18:09:53 MDT - Msg ID: 124295)
Ned,
Remarks, "I don't see this call for Chinese to buy gold because of the appreciating currency thing."

Try this exercise. To see with the eyes of a typical Chinese citizen, isolate your view of any potential yuan appreciation as a simple forex phenomenon that directly affects the price of a dollar bill but not the price of tea and a haircut, nor does it alter the nominal quantity of yuan sitting in their bank accounts.

All that said, the price of a gold wafer at a local shop has been in a rising trend for these citizens. They have every reason to expect that trend to continue, even as (if/when) the local price of a U.S. dollar falls and while local haircut prices simply sit still.

In other words, the price of gold is not achored somewhere along a two-dimensional exchange rate teeter-totter which is defined by the yuan on one end and the dollar on the other. Gold is free to rise independent of them both, and it's rise would likely be hastened by any trend that has Asia relaxing it's ongoing support of the U.S. currency. (For the Chinese officials to let the yuan appreciate is nearly akin for them to stop propping and mopping up the dollar. If our supply outruns this previously built-in demand, the whole world of weary dollar-holders will hasten their demands upon gold.)

R.
misetich
(09/08/2004; 18:12:01 MDT - Msg ID: 124296)
Reality Check: Cargo Execs:July-August Imports Overwhelm US Ports Sep 8 / 9:29 EDT
http://www.economeister.com/reg/popup/popup_frameset.jsp?prod=62&disp=single_story&banner=mainwire_featuresSnip:

NEW YORK (MktNews) - Inbound volumes again overwhelmed the nation's ports in July and August in defiance of weaker retail sales, suggesting inventory buildups and a trade deficit that will continue to balloon as the holiday season approaches, cargo and port officials say.

With truck and railway capacity strained, and ever-larger vessels unloading ever-larger quantities of goods, containers are piled up at ports, ships are backed up at sea, and the time it takes to unload vessels has just about doubled from the norm, they say.

However, exports remain stagnant, with volumes hovering in the same narrow range they have seen all year, they add.
.......................
What is especially disconcerting is that the import tide has surged just as retail sales appear to be stumbling and are likely to create unwelcome inventory buildups.
....................
Outbound container volume at 82,441 TEU was smack in the middle of the January low of 72,975 TEU and the March high of 94,823 TEU, Wong said.
****************
Misetich

Trade deficit report on Friday promises to be ANOTHER zoomer-

Here's what The Maestro had to say on the possibility of foreigners dumping US Treasuries

Snip:

Greenspan: Recovery Continuing But Oil Killed Ebullience

"In my judgment were it not for the very sharp rise in oil prices we would still be seeing some fairly strong growth typical of that earlier period." Later he said were it not for oil prices he would be "very optimistic."

"So we still have problems and there are innumerable problems," Greenspan said. Yet, he continued in answering committee Chairman Jim Nussle, "I think I agree with you in general that the economy is doing reasonably well."

At another point, Greenspan repeated the Fed's view that even a mass abandonment of U.S. government securities by their foreign holders would not dislocate the credit markets to any great degree.

Foreigners hold "substantially very short-term instruments and these instruments compete with a very huge market in the private sector," Greenspan said. "So the implication that you're trying to raise, namely, that were foreigners either for purposes malicious or otherwise withdrawing substantial amounts -- would that have a major impact on our interest rates or on our economy and the financial structure generally? Our conclusion is 'No.'"

End of snip

The Maestro says his team would/was winning the game, if the other team didn't score the touchdowns they scored/scoring (Higher Oil, energy and commodities pricing)

The Maestro goes beyond the above absurdity, on the effect of foreigners losing their appetite for US $ investments-

The 2004 Oil Shock And Awe is continuing. The direct and collateral damage to the industrialized west is continuing and will continue since the days of "cheap" energy prices are OVER

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express -Part ll
Gandalf the White
(09/08/2004; 20:18:38 MDT - Msg ID: 124297)
WOWSERS --- I just got back to the Castle and looked at the US$ chart !
http://charts-d.quote.com:443/1002980432830?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=DX00Y∬erval=10&Ht=600&Wd=800&Display=2&Study=MA&Param1=13&Param2=0&Param3=&FontSize=10AND, Gold only was allowed to rise in price a "nit noi"!!! ("little bit")
<;-)
mikal
(09/08/2004; 20:25:44 MDT - Msg ID: 124298)
Computer updates, redundancy and security efforts are ongoing
http://www.computerworld.com/securitytopics/security/story/0,10801,95765,00.htmlFor Wall Street, 9/11 lessons three years in the making - Computerworld
September 8, 2004
mikal
(09/08/2004; 21:09:36 MDT - Msg ID: 124299)
Qualifying the outcome of some wildly popular "speculation"
http://www.forbes.com/forbes/2004/0920/292_print.htmlWall Street in Dreamland
by Gary Shilling
mikal
(09/08/2004; 21:20:17 MDT - Msg ID: 124300)
Status Quo
Is it surprising that the author of the Forbes piece below
is recommending Treasuries, avoiding unneeded real estate and the use of margin debt?
Of course not- his failure to prescribe the ancient and time-tested precious metal remedy is conspicuous by it's absence.
Topaz
(09/09/2004; 03:22:27 MDT - Msg ID: 124301)
Bonds, Dollar Oil.
http://www.futuresource.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=CL&o=DX&a=D&z=610x300&d=LOW&b=LINE&st=The trinity seems to be settling down somewhat as Bond Yields outweigh $/Oil for the time being. Even PoG is indicating a less tense environment as it underperforms it's Currency counterparts.
The Dollar has run into a dead-end here and we should be looking to a HUGE swing (up OR down - take your pick) in the VERY near future imo.
Topaz
(09/09/2004; 03:33:29 MDT - Msg ID: 124302)
alt Currency Gold....
http://www.futuresource.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=GC&o=100/DX&a=D&z=610x300&d=LOW&b=LINE&st=....demonstrating recent softness.
968
(09/09/2004; 03:53:39 MDT - Msg ID: 124303)
Impact Of Oil Output Fall At Ageing Fields Seen As Acute
Impact Of Oil Output Fall At Ageing Fields Seen As Acute
August 27, 2004
Falling oil output from ageing fields, once insignificant compared with global production, has become large enough to impact world supply and may help explain the constant tightness in the oil market this year, according to analysts.
Oil production is now in decline in at least 18 major producing countries including the U.S., U.K. and OPEC members Indonesia and Venezuela, and total production from this group is falling by around 1 million barrels a day every year, according to the latest data.
The oil futures market can spike on a temporary outage of just a few hundred thousand barrels a day, so what is in effect a permanent outage of 1 million b/d may help explain some of the momentum behind the 53% rise in U.S. crude futures so far this year to near $50 a barrel, analysts who study depletion said.
"Depletion has become a serious issue for the oil market, and I believe it is contributing to market tightness," said Chris Skrebowski, editor of the London-based Energy Institute's Petroleum Review. Skrebowski has studied the issue using data from BP PLC's (BP) widely-read Statistical Review of World Energy data.
"What it means is that before you meet a single barrel of demand growth you have to replace all the missing barrels," he continued. "Depletion is really an extra demand. Countries where oil production is still expanding are being put under increasing pressure to make up growing depletion rates. It's a huge drag on the system."
And, as oil fields are ageing and their output declining even within countries where outright production is expanding, overall decline rates are estimated at closer to 3.5 million b/d.
Michael R. Smith, technical director of Energyfiles, an oil and gas information and forecasting service, estimates depletion from declining countries is running at even higher levels, at around 1.5 million b/d. Add in the declines at mature fields in expanding crude producers and an additional 5 million b/d is required to keep up with an average demand rise of 1.5 million b/d, he said.
"The 30 or so countries that can increase output will not only be required to satisfy demand growth of say 1.5 million b/d, but will also need to provide an additional approximately 1.5 million b/d each year to make up for the declining countries," he added.
Depletion "A Foreign Concept" To Most
Global supply continues to grow overall despite the depletion, with flows in the second quarter of this year up 5% , or 4 million b/d, against a year ago, at 82.3 million b/d, according to the International Energy Agency.
But as supply peaks and declines in more countries over the coming years, fewer nations will be left to make up the shortfall. Smith estimates production from declining countries makes up around 38% of global supply.
But few analysts factor such depletion into their forecasts.
"Depletion is a foreign concept to most people's thinking," said Henry Groppe, founding partner at Houston-based oil and gas consultancy Groppe, Long and Littell.
He has analyzed oil supply trends for 30 years. "So much of the world's oil production is carried out by governments or companies vying for government money who have an incentive to stress new production. It's not in their interests to point out that some of this will be swallowed up by declining fields."
"People often take future supply forecasts for new fields and simply add it on to current production," Smith said. "But current production could have dropped by the time the new field comes on stream leaving an overestimated supply figure."
Calculating depletion rates is fraught with difficulties as each oil field is different. The IEA, the energy watchdog for the industrialized world, warns against looking at the issue simplistically, or in isolation.
"Depletion is very important and needs to be factored into forecasts," said Klaus Rehaag, editor of the agency's monthly oil report. He said the agency factors depletion into its forecasts field-by-field where possible, and offsets it against estimates of new growth. "But depletion is only one dimension," he added. "Depletion may contribute to higher oil prices, but that will open up other opportunities" for investment.
Many analysts compare events in today's oil market with the oil shocks of the 1970s and early 1980s. Oil peaked at almost $80 a barrel in today's money after the Iranian revolution and triggered so much investment in oil production in non-OPEC countries that the world was swamped with crude which eventually drove prices down to just $10 a barrel by 1998.
But Groppe says the situation is different now. "In the ensuing years since 1979 we've had the opportunity to find and produce all the cheap oil," he said. "Now what's left is much more expensive, and there's simply not going to be a flood of cheap crude hitting the market again."
"High prices will draw forth some incremental supply," Skrebowski said, "but the problem is one of timing."
He estimates around 8 million b/d of new oil is expected up to 2007, though depletion will weaken its impact. After that, there is a dearth of new projects. "Because of the lead time, even if projects are started now they won't impact until 2010. In 2008-2009 I think volumes are going to fall below requirements."
Groppe agrees: "In order to merely replace lost production from now on, the industry needs to develop around 3.5 million barrels of oil a day. All our research indicates this won't be possible."
By Stella Farrington
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Interesting take : new oilfields's supply can't just be added to current production levels. The older (depleting) oilfields supply has to be replaced first.
Rimh
(09/09/2004; 06:24:43 MDT - Msg ID: 124304)
Oil Reserves
There seems to be some crisis management going on in the oil sector. I'm in a foreign country where CNN is the primary news channel. They have a headline by the IEA stating that '...there is more than enough oil...' and trying to impress upon people that we are awash in cheap oil... Of course the market players aren't taken in by this, but they may allow oil to be 'talked down' somewhat in order to keep the economy afloat. If nothing else, they are trying to confuse people.
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(09/09/2004; 06:25:30 MDT - Msg ID: 124305)
What you need to know before you buy your first ounce of gold...
http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html

Q. In your book, The ABCs of Gold Investing: Protecting Your Wealth through Private Gold Ownership you start the chapter by saying "Who you do business with is one of the most important aspects of gold investing." Why is that?

MK. Most, if not all, of the progress an investor makes towards realizing his or her goals with respect to gold ownership hinges on that relationship. Unbiased, objective advice from one's gold advisor is a key element. So are market information and education. Pricing, product selection, fulfillment and on-going support also rely on that relationship. Above all, it is extremely important for gold buyers to match their objectives with the type of gold they buy. Positive results in all of those areas depend upon a strong relationship with a gold firm. That is why it is important to spend some time finding the right one.

Q. Can you briefly describe some of the pitfalls a beginner might be on the look out for?

MK. The biggest trap investors fall into is buying a gold investment that bears little or no relationship to his or her objectives. Take safe haven investors for example. That group makes up 90% of our clientele, and probably a good 75% of the current physical gold market. Most often the safe-haven investors simply want to add gold coins to their portfolio mix, but by the time they finish talking with a typical national firm, they might end up in a leveraged gold position, exotic rare coins, or being diverted into silver or platinum. Others drift into gold stocks or gold futures which in reality are proxies for real gold ownership and could actually act opposite the intent of the investor. There's nothing wrong with any of these non-physical investments per se, it's just that none of them is really a safe-haven. The investor should bear this in mind. The question investors must always answer for themselves is "How will this investment serve me should the economy or financial markets suffer a major disruption?"

Life,Liberty,Property
(09/09/2004; 06:30:24 MDT - Msg ID: 124306)
Spreading the word
I know a few of my friends believe my intereest in gold is simply an eccentricity (and only my mother places much faith in me amongst the family). As a result, to make all of my friends aware and give them a starting point, I have given them this link. I believe all respect my intelligence who have received it, but the choice to break past the blue smoke and mirrors has to be theirs. The Caves of Socrates (not a reference to the poster here, obviously) can be difficult to escape, but I still hope all do before water starts flooding the caves..... Here is what I sent. If any who received it read this post, you are half way to getting at the truth of things. Good luck and God bless.

Here is a link to the site that I refer to (and also
the company I purchase from). I find the Gold
Discussion section informative for keeping apraised of
what is going on with the price of gold beyond what
you see in the COMEX (commodities exchange - basically
futures for gold sales based on theoretical
production). The postings often include links to news
stories including commentaries by the people who
attempt to set the market prices (you can only play
the market so long before it plays you). A repeat of
the end of the 1970s gold price ($875/ounce) might be
closer than you think. Feel free to ask me any
questions. I am leaving now for my sisters wedding, so
I won't be back until Sunday. Take care.

P.S. By the way, I am thinking about giving a traditional Indian wedding gift to my sister. Gold.
Cometose
(09/09/2004; 07:26:56 MDT - Msg ID: 124307)
Jim Sinclair on the Dollar / Gold
Yesterday's Gold Summary ........
I didn't find this posted elsewhere ; It may be worth a read

Wednesday, September 08, 2004, 8:24:00 PM EST

Gold Market Summary

Author: Jim Sinclair





Although many reasons can be constructed after the fact, do not consider today's action in the US dollar as lacking any meaning.



As I look back, the US dollar has rarely taken a bath when the Chairman spoke. Nonetheless, it took one today in technical terms.

Two days previous, the dollar hit a Fibonacci resistance line at .9031 and was blocked. Today, the dollar made a try at this line again, failed, and then proceed to drop below the 50% retracement at .8941 to close at .8904 after establishing a low at .8898. That was terrible action when the Chairman spoke.

The question now is simple. You know that I have been expecting Dr. No and Chung Phat to pull the plug on the dollar which is akin to detonating C4 under gold. In fact, I anticipated this happening in late July and early August. Now I wonder if it may well be in process. Regardless, the USDX looks simply terrible today.

Many of you are asking me what I meant by the US dollar forming a bankruptcy chart? That is simple. It is a chart of repetitive Bearish Head & Shoulders formations in which the breakdown from the neckline also repetitively moves back up to the neckline and then falls away.

Repetitions of this on a weekly chart spells bankruptcy! Look at the chart of Enron and there it was. This action is the repetitive classic completion of the major bearish formation that caps markets most often. When it repeats in classic form, the result is BANKRUPTCY.

To the option geeks on the COMEX take note. This month is far from over and you are due to be creamed. To those who have lost their grip, hang in because the action of the US dollar today was totally out of character.

When markets move out of character they communicate a major move in the prevailing direction or the trend. The prevailing direction of the trend is down.

Remember that gold moves in the inverse to the dollar so up is the direction ahead of us.






Cometose
(09/09/2004; 11:27:21 MDT - Msg ID: 124309)
Jim , Richard, Mark , Dave , Harry
Each of Jim Sinclair , Harry Schultz, Richard Russell, Mark Faber, Dave Logan , and Mark Faber were interviewed individually and asked the same questions relative to their outlooks .........Re the GOLD DOLLAR , Stock Markets ...Year END projections, The Economy ...
Longer term outlooks were divulged .....
THere was one individual from Fla that spoke last who I am not familiar with .....

One interesting note that came out in Jim Sinclair interview ......that weighs on the dollar ........

is that ..............Sometime in July , the Japaneze opted out of the SUPPORT THE DOLLAR SCHEME .........
All the support that they have provided buy using their influence by whatever processes C BANKS use ....to SUPPORT THE DOLLAR has ceased ............because it is now not in the best interest of the Japaneze to do so anymore....

This support and buying that has been there for so many years and the slack that is represented by the Japaneze absence must now be replaced ...........replaced by the Fed itself............

More hyperinflation is in the pipeline therefore and the predicament is systemic and inescapable .....

This move did not happen in a Vacuum ........it happened for specific reasons and specific shifts in Global relationships and Global perceptions of the Dollar is indicated........

When Marc Faber was interviewed ......the first question asked was his view on the dollar ..........Might I point out that he is on location in South East ASIA ..it is where he resides and works.........

You would not believe the frankness and bluntness of his opening comment on the dollar.........He said something to the effect that THE DOLLAR is Terminally ILL .......with respect to its position as Reserve Currency of the World ..

I would recommend against ever keeping your personal stash of GOLD anywhere outside of the perview of your personal CONTROL and OVERSIGHT .......
mikal
(09/09/2004; 11:30:49 MDT - Msg ID: 124310)
AFL-CIO, Business Groups say China's yuan peg illegal under WTO.
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B8419F0B8%2D0CB7%2D4686%2DB003%2D1237EFDEE934%7D&siteid=mktwU.S. group says China currency peg violates trade rules
by Gregory Robb - September 9, 2004
Cometose
(09/09/2004; 13:12:50 MDT - Msg ID: 124312)
oil
Reading another site this morning I noticed someones post related to thier personal technical study of Oil and this I believer followed on an earlier post from last week .
His resisitance and that he is warning of is 45 plus change ......

most of the people interviewed rated Oil a buy or oil in a bull market .........over 70 we run into a cessation of Economic activity globally.....

This individual was bearish the Oil Market as of last weeks drop ...........

I don't know who is right but I suggest that we will be cutting right through 45 plus change like a knive through butter.....

New highs in oil according to Sinclair mean new highs in Gold ....

Which to me means that the petro dollars recieved by the Arab World for their precious and limited oil supplies are going to be converted to purchase limited quantities of the remaining oustanding GOLD ozs available .....Musical Chairs in the spectre of Limited Resources in contrast to the Valueless Fiat ........which many need to offload..

This will continue putting upward pressure on GOLD PRICE...
as the dollar continues to be dumped .....via sales of treauries......Vicious downward cycle in Paper similar to that of a Flushing toilet.....while all things commodity increase in value ...
Usul
(09/09/2004; 14:02:34 MDT - Msg ID: 124313)
How long will the world's oil last?
http://msnbc.msn.com/id/5945678/As production peaks, economic impact could be dire

"The worry is whether there is something worse than the Great Depression of the 1930s waiting for us � particularly that the United States gets heavily hurt because we burn a quarter of the world's oil," said Princeton University geologist Kenneth Deffeyes.
mikal
(09/09/2004; 15:12:30 MDT - Msg ID: 124314)
Boldly naming baby steps needed for change:
http://www.economist.com/finance/displayStory.cfm?story_id=3172404The risks ahead for the world economy
Sep 9th 2004
From The Economist print edition- Excerpt:
"Fred Bergsten explains why policymakers need to act now in order to avert the danger of serious damage to the world economy

FIVE major risks threaten the world economy. Three centre on the United States: renewed sharp increases in the current-account deficit leading to a crash of the dollar; a budget profile that is out of control; and an outbreak of trade protectionism. A fourth relates to China, which faces a possible hard landing from its recent overheating. The fifth is that oil prices could rise to $60-70 per barrel even without a major political or terrorist disruption, and much higher with one.
Most of these risks reinforce each other. A further oil shock, a dollar collapse and a soaring American budget deficit would all generate much higher inflation and interest rates. A sharp dollar decline would increase the likelihood of further oil price rises. Larger budget deficits will produce larger American trade deficits, and thus more protectionism and dollar vulnerability. Realisation of any one of the five risks could substantially reduce world growth. If two or three, let alone all five, were to occur in combination then they would radically reverse the global outlook.
There is still time to head off each of these risks. Decisions made in America immediately after this year's elections will be pivotal. China, the new growth locomotive, is key to resolving the global trade imbalances and must play a central role in future. Action by a number of other countries will be essential to maintain global growth and to avoid deeper oil shocks and new trade restrictions.
The most alarming new prospect is another sharp deterioration in America's current-account deficit. It has already reached an annual rate of $600 billion, well above 5% of the economy. New projections by my colleague Catherine Mann (see chart 1) suggest it will now be rising again by a full percentage point of GDP per year, as actually occurred in 1997-2000. On such a trajectory, the deficit would exceed $1 trillion per year by 2010.
There are three reasons for this dismal prospect. First, American merchandise imports are now almost twice as large as exports; hence exports would have to grow twice as fast as imports merely to halt the deterioration. (In the past, such a relationship occurred only after the massive fall experienced by the dollar in 1985-87.) Second, economic growth is likely to remain faster in America than in its major markets and higher incomes there increase demand for imports much faster than income growth elsewhere increases demand for American exports. Third, America's large debtor position (it currently is in the red by more than $2.5 trillion) means that its net investment income payments to foreigners will escalate steadily, especially as interest rates rise.
Of course, it is virtually inconceivable that the markets will permit such deficits to eventuate. The only issue is how they are to be averted. An immediate resumption of the gradual decline of the dollar, as in the period 2002-03, cumulating in a fall of at least another 20%, is needed to reduce the deficits to sustainable levels.
If delayed much longer, the dollar's inevitable fall is likely to be much larger and much faster. Moreover, much of the slack in America's product and labour markets will probably have disappeared in a year or so..."

**** Another fascinating addition IMO to the bounty of recent warnings emanating from mainstream media. Though far from all-embracing, a must read nonetheless. Notice that Bergsten is keen enough to know that the US will fare no worse or better than most other countries. So an old cliche is still apt: "Your country- love it or leave it."
USAGOLD Daily Market Report
(09/09/2004; 15:56:31 MDT - Msg ID: 124315)
Page Update!
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Daily Gold Market Report has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.

---Closing market excerpts-----

Gold futures on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange entered consolidatory mode Thursday and awaited the next move made by the U.S. dollar.

The most-active Dec contract settled $1 lower at $400.40 per ounce.

U.S. jobless claims declined by a greater-than-expected 44,000 in the week to Sept. 4 to hint that the economy could be emerging from its recent "soft patch" and offered support to the U.S. dollar....

However, few players proved willing to extend gold's decline by adding to sell-side volumes and allowed Dec prices to hold above the $399 mark through the morning.

Some good levels of physical offtake were then noted in the $399 region by consumers out of the Middle East and Asia to further underpin prices.

Dealers argued such sources of demand will likely remain intact entering the Indian wedding season (wherein gold is often a popular gift to newlyweds) and near the holiday period in the U.S.

Nevertheless, the U.S. dollar's resilience remains the major focus of the gold market.

----(see url for access to full news, 24-hr newswire)---

Stable dollar may mean bigger deficit-Fed's Yellen -- Reuters - Bonds News

Record Buck-Buying, Reserves Hit Record, Gold Tender Postponed -- The Moscow Times
mikal
(09/09/2004; 16:19:08 MDT - Msg ID: 124316)
Fed adds reserves
http://www.reuters.comFed adds permanent reserves by buying coupons
Thu Sep 9, 2004 10:54 AM ET
NEW YORK, Sept 9 (Reuters) -
Snippit: "The Federal Reserve said on Thursday it was adding permanent reserves to the banking system by buying coupons.
The Fed said it was buying coupons maturing Aug. 15, 2007 to Dec. 15, 2008 for delivery on Friday.
The Fed excluded all callables, all Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) and the 2-3/4 percent coupon maturing Aug. 15, 2007.
Earlier, the Fed added temporary reserves to the system through overnight system repurchase agreements and 14-day system repurchase agreements.
The fed funds rate last traded at 1.50 percent, the Fed's current target for the rate.
Further details of the operations are available at: http://www.ny.frb.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm"
*** As CB money creation continues in far off places, the currency's effervescence approaches the final frontier.
mikal
(09/09/2004; 16:33:34 MDT - Msg ID: 124317)
Treasuries auction
http://www.reuters.comNEW YORK, Sept 9 (Reuters) - Snippit: "Treasuries prices turned lower in choppy trade on Thursday as an auction of U.S. government debt drew almost no private demand, leaving the dealer community holding a pile of paper.
The sale of $9 billion in reopened 10-year Treasury notes went at a high yield of 4.195 percent, well above expectations, and drew bids for only 2.12 times the amount on offer, down from August's 2.90 level.
The breakdown showed indirect bidders, including customers of primary dealers and foreign central banks, picked up only $257 million, or just 2.8 percent of the whole issue. That compares to 54 percent in the original sale of the notes in August and 38 percent in the last reopening."

With much of this data outside my realm of expertise, I can still say that important investors and other "indirect bidders" are becoming much more risk aware and risk averse in their decisions. And the implications of these "indirect bidders" participating at "just 2.8 percent of the whole issue" is surely beyond my imagination.
Ned
(09/09/2004; 16:33:55 MDT - Msg ID: 124318)
Cometose
Frankly, I'm getting worried. I've been watching my proxy for gold and my gold stocks whither away here in '04 and to put it mildly I'm a little disgruntled. I set up for Mr. Sinclair's Aug 15 call and boy, do I feel like I've been 'set up'. He had a great run in '03, he called them all right but he's been off the mark, shall we say, in '04.

Jim was rambling about the Japanese bailing out of dollar support a while ago because he had this belief that the Japanese must now let their currency run to offset the inflation of commodities. He also has mentioned the same of the Chinese except that I don't see either letting the dollar loose (to the downside). Gotta wonder which hurts more, the effect to exporting or the effects of importing when considering a higher currency.

I look at the CRB and the DX which are 'flat' in the last 6 months and wonder a) when is this trend going to break and b) which direction. Sure we all figure the DX must go down due to multiple deficits and as a consequence of a 'smaller' dollar the CRB must go up. Will it be so?

I love listening to these OPEC 'punks' with the $22-28 old oil range. Of course we are out of 'the range', the dollar is 'out' of this old 'range'. The latest fool rambled on about an overblown oil price, he said there is a 1.5million barrel/day oversupply and peak oil is a bag of baloney. When did anyone inform this dolt that $22 oil many moons ago was before a $8 dollar debasement hike, then a $8 terrorist premium and in the last 2 or 3 months a $8 'close-to-the-future' peak-oil fear hike. 22+8+8+8=$46. So let's tell Mr. Oil Dolt to reverse the consequences, prove that peak-oil is non-sense (-$8), get rid of terrorism (-$8), reverse the dollars woes and Voila!, $22 oil again.

It's no bewildering puzzle why oil is +$40. What some are REALLY concerned about is another slide of the dollar, another round of BIGGER bombs, and confirmation of peak oil then we have to inform 'OIL DOLT' that we $44 +10+10+10. Maybe that will get him excited?

Anyway..... just rambling, seems we might be flat-lined here until election time. I wonder if Mr. Market is concerned about BIG bombs going off. Maybe a monstrous relief rally after the election......if we get there???

Thoughts?

TIA
misetich
(09/09/2004; 16:50:02 MDT - Msg ID: 124319)
Price Inflation Soaring - Employment Cuts Soaring
http://news.myway.com/index/id/business|reuters.htmlVarious headline snips

Price Inflation

Health Costs

CHICAGO (Reuters) - Health insurance premiums rose five times faster than U.S. workers' salaries this year, according to a survey released on Thursday that also showed slippage in the percentage of American workers covered by employer health plans.
...............

Import prices

U.S. Import Prices Jump 1.7 Percent (over 20% annualized)

Oil

U.S. crude surges $1.84 to end at $44.61 a barrel

Labor Cuts

EDS: 20,000 Job Cuts Over Next 2 Years
Oneida to Shut Last Factory, Cut 500 Jobs
Delta Aims to Cut Jobs 12%, Drop a Hub and Reduce Pay
US Air - Expect Chapter 11, pilots told

Corporate Earnings Warnings

Visteon Warns on Earnings (Auto parts manufacturer)
Alcoa Warns Earnings to Miss Forecasts
JetBlue Airways sings the blues

US GDP Forecast

Economists Lower Second Half U.S. GDP Forecasts, Survey Finds........The world's largest economy will grow at a 3.7 percent annual rate from July through September, slower than the 3.9 percent estimated last month

Trade Deficit

July trade deficit expected between $51-57 billion

Budget Deficit

2003-2004 - $422 billions on a cash basis over $3 trillions using GAAP

*************
Misetich

The 2004 Oil Shock And Awe is continuing.....OPEC is expected to increase its price band for "normal conditions" to $30's on the low level and probably $34 on the upper scale

The last words belong to Il Maestro

""If it weren't for the oil prices I would be very optimistic about where the economy is going,"

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
Maverick1
(09/09/2004; 17:17:22 MDT - Msg ID: 124320)
Breaking news
BREAKING NEWS
Dollar Drops in NY Afternoon Trade as Fed Governor Janet Yellen said the US Trade Deficit to widen as long as dollar stays at present levels, and there would only be a turnaround in the trade gap if it involves the dollar. Statements by the Fed that imply further dollar declines are a rarity. Fed Chairman Greenspan always hinted at his inability to determine the real exchange rate of the dollar considering the swelling deficit, but he never factored in a dollar decline as a requirement to a slowing in the deficit since he always showed confidence in foreign demand for US capital. The impact could be further compounded ahead of Friday's July US trade figures, which follow a record breaking $55.8 billion in June.
EURUSD shot up to $1.2237 from $1.2190 in minutes after the statements

misetich
(09/09/2004; 17:19:16 MDT - Msg ID: 124321)
If The Thunder Don't Get Ya Then The Lightening Will.
http://www.contraryinvestor.com/mo.htmSnip:

Away from the "real world", so to speak, Fed sponsored liquidity creation in the US has also been responsible for various forms of asset inflation over the recent years simply as an outlet for this excess liquidity. Whether in stocks, bonds, or housing, accelerating prices to the extent we have experienced would simply not have been possible without incredible monetary stimulus. It's no secret at all that the Fed's unspoken modus operandi in terms of kick starting the recent domestic economic recovery was in good part grounded in asset inflation and subsequent monetization, primarily as it related to residential real estate. And as we have seen over the recent past, when price acceleration in one asset class cools down, the growing pool of speculative investment related liquidity simply migrates to another asset. The very nature of excess liquidity has provided the fuel for virtually unprecedented financial speculation. And real commodities have not been exempt from this tidal wave of liquidity in the least. Certainly at least some part of the recent rise in crude is due to the act of financial speculation in real commodity markets, although we firmly believe that longer term energy prices are squarely driven by supply and demand dynamics. Thank you Fed for the cheap cost of capital and plentitude of financial ammunition with which to speculate.

Finally, it's pretty darn clear that a declining dollar over the last few years has likewise pressured all commodity prices higher, given that most commodities are denominated in US dollars in terms of global payment or trade. Is the Fed's incredible monetary largesse at least in part responsible for relative dollar value slippage over the last few years? Of course it is. Dollar slippage that the global producers of commodities can only offset with higher absolute dollar prices. Again, whether crude prices have been influenced by real global economic growth, excessive financial speculation, or as an offset to the declining dollar, the Fed's monetary machinations have in good part supported all of these factors that have in part pressured crude prices higher.

If The Thunder Don't Get Ya Then The Lightening Will...

Although this may sound like far too simplistic a question, is the Fed really down to the choice of higher US domestic interest rates or higher crude (and perhaps broader global commodity prices) prices ahead? Either way, the Fed appears over a barrel.
..................

As is clear, directional relative acceleration in both crude prices and Fed Funds have gone hand in hand over the period shown. Based on historical precedent, unless the recent spike in crude is quickly followed by a near term and very sharp sell off in price, it would seem a darn good bet that much higher short term rates lie ahead. The Fed is being pushed into a very tight corner. With each tick higher in crude prices, the Fed is increasingly being forced to choose between perhaps very unacceptable outcomes.
..............

But maybe more than anything else, what has truly amazed us over the recent past is what appears to be the casual manner in which the financial markets have viewed higher crude prices. If you had told us one year ago that we would virtually kiss $50 per barrel on crude pricing, we would have expected an efficient market to perhaps react much more violently to the downside than has been the case so far
................
espite higher consumer confidence readings as of late, real world anecdotes of consumer spending activity have suggested consumers are growing weary. Perhaps very weary. And, as we have mentioned many a time, corporate capital spending is definitely not stepping in to fill the void in terms of supporting broader domestic GDP growth at the moment.
Enough for now. The bottom line is that what is very different about the current economic recovery cycle relative to prior historical experience is the acceleration in crude prices at the front end of this recovery. As we have shown you, there is no precedent for what has happened over the last 11 quarters. As there is likewise no precedent for the monetary and fiscal stimulus unleashed by the Fed and Administration over this same period.
***********
Misetich

ANOTHER scintillating commentary, compliments of our friends at contraryinvestor

The "market" appears mesmerized, as is the Fed, hoping The 2004 Oil Shock And Awe is a "transitory phenomena"

Oil Prices have almost doubled in the last 4 years and that's not transitory and quadrupled since 1998 low of $12 per barrel

The China phenomena, India etc is being underestimated by the West - as it has increased demand spectacularly and the odds favour continued increase in consumption primarily from the Land of the Red Dragon

This "sitting duck" scenario is reminiscent of the market bubble a few years ago - when corporate America stood still waiting and hoping for "better weather" ahead grasping at new concepts such as The New Paradigm, The New Economy etc - and later took it on the chin as oil prices raised ahead from the low $20's to the low $30's being the last straw that broke the camel's back and POOF! the bubble burst - and millions of jobs were lost and US budget deficit went into orbit and the US $ lost approx. $30% of its value in recent years

The "sitting duck" scenario is upon us AGAIN! as The 2004 Oil Shock And Awe is relentlessly hitting corporate costs, and hitting consumer spending

...don't be fooled by "higher consumer spending" - as the $ are NOT BEING SPEND fruitful but being spend on higher carrying costs, higher energy price inflation, higher medical costs, higher commodity costs, higher import prices, etc etc etc

An investor has a choice - be part of the "sitting ducks" or be prudent and ADD physical gold to their portfolio - as insurance should be there when you need it

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
Smeagol
(09/09/2004; 17:38:03 MDT - Msg ID: 124322)
So where is the oil, really...

Another once ssaid, in sso many words, that there is oil enough for all the World and their grandchildren... but only IF, there was Precious to pay for it, would Oil flow freely. Well, we could certainly ssee a reason why oil sstates might be producing only the minimum they absolutely musst, if all they were getting was Dollar-fiat and paper-gold promises of payment in the future... and let everyone think, or allow the sstory to be noised about, that the 'shortage' was because of 'peak-oil' or 'not enough capacity', to cover up the Gold for Oil problem until it resolved?

S.
Cometose
(09/09/2004; 17:50:28 MDT - Msg ID: 124323)
Mavierick re: breaking $ news and Fed Statement
At the end of late trading on the cusp of Globex trading
$ was 8880 Euro was at 12201 Next thing I saw was Euro trading at 12227 .........
After watching the $ humm along for an hour at 8880....now it appears the closing number for the dollar has been jiggered up to 8908...............
But it appears that the Euro is going to go on a tear and the dollar will not hold this level at 8908 ....

Perhaps this strange increase in the dollar after or prior to your noted announcement was done for the benifit of the insiders going long the Euro and Shorting the Dollar.

Last Euro Trade at 12240 .

............and it looks like it may be a good day coming for Gold ......perhaps a cometose day ........80 dollars is a big move for 2 weeks but this Gold has been hugging its 50 day moving average for way too long . If it happens to slice through the overhead resistance a 433 after penetrating 412.50 ,,,,,,,,, this sucker might want to run ..........To DA MOON , Alice.
GO GOLD
Chris Powell
(09/09/2004; 20:40:23 MDT - Msg ID: 124325)
Connecticut tomatoes ARE late!
http://images.search.yahoo.com/search/images/view?back=http%3A%2F%2Fimages.search.yahoo.com%2Fsearch%2Fimages%3Fp%3Dgreen%2Btomatoes%26ei%3DUTF-8%26cop%3Dmss%26tab%3D3%26fr%3DFP-tab-img-t%26b%3D21&h=150&w=141&imgcurl=www.viviculture.org%2Fimages%2Fphotos%2Ftomatoes20030629.jpg&imgurl=www.viviculture.org%2Fimages%2Fphotos%2Ftomatoes20030629.jpg&size=8.7kB&name=tomatoes20030629.jpg&rcurl=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.viviculture.org%2Fweblog%2F2003%2F07%2F01.html&rurl=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.viviculture.org%2Fweblog%2F2003%2F07%2F01.html&p=green+tomatoes&type=jpeg&no=34&tt=723Cometose, funny you should mention Jim
Sinclair's prediction months ago of a
big rise in the gold price by the time
of the harvest of tomatoes here in
Connecticut....

A newspaper I'm associated with did a
story a week ago about how the state's
tomato harvest is a few weeks late
because our summer has been on the
cool and wet side.

There are 16 tomato plants in my yard
and so far I've picked only about 20
percent of the fruit on the plants.
I've been hoping for a few more warm
weeks -- as well as for a good harvest
in gold and silver.
Cometose
(09/09/2004; 20:41:48 MDT - Msg ID: 124326)
Ned
Ned

I'll tell you what I think........

If you leave beans out too long after they are cooked , they will go rancid .........if you eat those beans after they have gone rancid .....they will make you sick ......

No one wants to eat rancid beans and get sick ....

Such is the state of the the world regarding the US dollar
right now .........

If you kiss a woman and your teeth move while you are in the process and she feels it .......it will gross that woman out ........No woman wants to kiss an individual and feel (the party on) the other (side of the kiss)'s Teeth move ..............

Such is the state of the world regarding exchange with the U S dollar....

Sorry for the editorializing .....just kidding ......Not Really.....

One more thing before I continue ..........

Burnt POPCORN SMELLS..............It Smells bad and
Tastes Worse.........No one wants to smell or eat Burnt POP CORN ..........

Such is the state of the WOrld with respect to their relationship to the Dollar right now.

HELLOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Ned , Did anyone contact Connecticutt tomatoe growers to find out if Tomatoes came late this season ?????? I agree with you , Sinclair may have been early. So in order to stay in the game , one has to roll their options postition as he suggested selling on the momentum indicator in IBD at the high and buying back in at the low which I haven't seemed to have caught on to yet but as long as I get it right now prior to the 2nd and 3rd movement in this play it will matter little the price I pay now ....

All I can say is that the megatrends in place and their tributaries are huge ............. and as one interviewee said : we are in big trouble .

Look at the big picture ........go look at the archives of Another , Financialsense newshour........If you can't see the forest for the trees , step back and look at what we are in the middle of to understand the context.......

Time is of little consequence if you stay on the path ...of the trend .....because the trend is going to prove you are correct........

One of the contributors at the interview said and I think it was Marc Faber , that "GOld is going to go up but I don't know if it is going to come back down this time. ..."

'Arabs want value for value .............meaning Gold For Oil to replace depleting reserve of value instead of Oil for another depleteting Asset : the dollar .....

Bankers and Politicians will always encourage currencies to approach their intrinsic value which is zero ...since the dollar went off the gold standard 33 years ago ??? we are going there again .....this is self evident to all global player/observers.

Three fold deficits........ and current approach to
Global balance printing more paper means Paper is going to burn
and Commodities to rise.........
Dollar is trash until Deificits and trade balance reigned in.............

Many hard years lay ahead ........unfolding before you now

Stock market .....Pooper
Bond Market ......Pooper
Dollar ...........Pooper

Readjustment globally: reserve currency of the world ;
America status ....unless America innovates anew with new technology remaking itself .....independent of New World ORDER CENTRALITY and SUCKING SOUND BASED ON EURO FOR OIL
Scenario .....Domination Combination of the Future .

When we are down , rest of the world may want to take another swipe at us if we pursue WORLD WAR III on Terrorism (axis of evil whatever that may become) and lose war of Global Economics..........

Our payment may be more than Economic catastrophe ....may become world's scapegoat for abuses and Global fallout caused by Greemspam Inc.......

WHat happens when your markers are called in , in Las Vegas or with the Loan Sharks........I personlly know someone who got into too much credit debt with those people in San Diego ........they killed him ..
He was my friend. Who holds US Markers.......?

the people that hold U S Securities/ Treasuries or the people that own the fed.........Europeans ....

Who do the European Bankers owe their allegiance to????

Euro's for oil takes on a whole new meaning in this context.

Last time there was a depression , trade wars happened and then Isolationism set in .....Isolationism can only happen when nationstates are independent of each other and can live and exist in that state........it was possible in the 30's for the US ..........is it possible now .........to live in isolationism and survive.............in Global COnfiguration we are accustomed to?
THat can only work if legislation is in place to subsidize the development of new energy sources....and truly promote Energy Independence which in my view is very much obtainable ..........but in this LOBBY RIDDEN COUNTRY , one wonders if it is still viable....or obtainable ...
Kick all of them out of office .....Do it now , DO it OFTEN ......

Freedom and innovation ..........where we have already been ; where we must return ..........to stay independent of control manipulation and the web being formed to promote globalism and the compromises and tradeoffs that must occur within such a framework............

The out of control spending actions of the current administration and Heir Greenspan have only exacerbated the problems that when allowed to continue to fester will push us ever closer to a world dependent federation ......
of compromise and intimidation , assimilation , and stupidity.

Whatever happened to Made in the USA ........wasn't that a A Walmart slogan??? Ha Ha Ha ...

It's going to take vision to get out of this and run above the Din

Vision and Statesmen of Integrity running this country ...
that can't be bought and won't sell the our constitutional freedoms' down the river ........because of SOME AGENDA that's being fed to them piecemeal from one adminsitration to the other.............Foundation paid For Social Engineering ................

Ned, It's still a fricking Conspiracy .........you can't get away from it .........

and our little Gold scenario is just a little part of the picture ..........

Our Fiscal disintegrity is setting us up for a big fall brought to you by the HAND OF THE INVISIBLE AGENDA........
to take us where we NEED NOT GO >............Let the Rest of the WOrld go there......

Land of the Free and Home of the Brave only remains Land of the Free and Home of the Brave if People again Embrace
Value DRIVEN OBJECTIVES and GOALS .....ESTABLISH THEIR AMERICAN DESTINATION BASED ON THOSE VALUE DRIVEN OBJECTIVES AND GOALS ,,,,'set their course and maintain their navigational plots to arrive at said destination.....

America and the people of America are in a FOG that has been designed to Set HER AIMLESS.....because we don't have a definition of where we are going and understand WHY....
All because of poor leadership or no leadership ...and no VISION . It will be interesting to see how long we can drift before ....the times bring us a leader .....who understands America's place and purpose in history ....one who doesn't have any vestedinterst in Going to Washington for Power or Money .............Where is such a MAN / WOMAN ??? America awaits???????
Smeagol
(09/09/2004; 22:34:13 MDT - Msg ID: 124327)
For the ssilver ssurfers...
http://www.minersmanual.com/silverarticle.php?SA_ID=190
[snip]:

"In 1975 silver's average price was $4.42 in todays dollars [inflation adjusted] that would be $15.59.

In 1980 silver's average price was $13.70 [inflation adjusted 1975 dollars] or $48.30 in 2004 dollars.

In 1985 silver's average price was $3.06 [inflation adjusted 1975 dollars] or $10.81 in 2004 dollars.

In 1990 silver's average price was $1.99 [ inflation adjusted 1975 dollars] or $7.01 in 2004 dollars.

In 1995 silver's average price was $1.83 [ inflation adjusted 1975 dollars] or $6.46 in 2004 dollars.

In 2000 silver's average price was $1.55 [ inflation adjusted 1975 dollars] or $5.45 in 2004 dollars.

In 2004 silver's Aug. 6 th price was $1.91 [ inflation adjusted 1975 dollars] or $6.72 in 2004 dollars.

So silver has gone from $4.42 in 1975 down to todays price [inflation adjusted] of $1.91.

Or put another way, silver should be priced at $15.59 in todays dollar to equal 1975 dollars of $4.42.

Was silver expensive in 1975?

Silver to gold ratio in 1975 was about 36 ounces of silver to 1 ounce of gold.

Silver to gold ratio Aug.6/04 was about 60 ounces of silver to 1 ounce of gold.

You could purchase a barrel of oil in the early 1970's for 1 ounce of silver.

Today oil is $43.00 it now takes over 6 ounces of silver to buy a barrel of oil."...(more)

S.

Cytek
(09/09/2004; 22:56:06 MDT - Msg ID: 124328)
More Cuts coming .... JOBLESS RECOVERY
Associated Press
EDS May Cut 15,000 to 20,000 More Jobs
Thursday September 9, 11:08 pm ET
By David Koenig, AP Business Writer
EDS Could Cut 15,000 to 20,000 More Jobs in Coming Years in Order to Reduce Costs by $3 Billion


DALLAS (AP) -- Electronic Data Systems Corp. could cut 15,000 to 20,000 jobs -- up to one-sixth of its work force -- over about two years to help reduce costs by about $3 billion, chief executive Michael H. Jordan said Thursday.

"The next two years, there are going to be a lot of change in EDS," Jordan said at an investor conference in New York. "But that will, as I said, take 20 percent out of our cost structure -- $3 billion out. That's the way you do it."

EDS runs computer systems for other companies. It has struggled with money-losing contracts, a downturn in corporate technology spending and debt downgrades.

The company has made most of the 5,200 job cuts it announced last year, and has about 120,000 employees remaining, including 55,000 in the United States.

misetich
(09/10/2004; 04:40:43 MDT - Msg ID: 124329)
Oil output in Venezuela falls short of OPEC quotas
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2004-09/10/content_1965263.htmSnip:

CARACAS, Sept. 9 (Xinhuanet) -- Oil output in Venezuela falls short of quota set by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), according to a report by the organization.

Daily oil yield in the country remained at 2.5 million barrels for two months since July, lagging behind the OPEC-set target of 2.99 million barrels a day, said the report.
..............
Analysts attributed major reasons for the stagnant oil production to insufficient investment resulting from turbulent situations in the country in recent years, which has frustrated domestic and international investment enthusiasm and induced a capital shortage of some 6 billion dollars.

It was estimated that the country must invest at least 3 billion US dollars a year to update equipment and discover new reserves in order to keep the output at 3 million barrels a day
*************
Misetich

Oops! maximum production reached? or is it Hugo's method of obtaining higher returns for lower production?

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
Sundeck
(09/10/2004; 05:05:29 MDT - Msg ID: 124330)
Oil Price Range
Misetich #124329

You said:

"...or is it Hugo's method of obtaining higher returns for lower production?"

Yes sir...the whole question of an oil-price trading range sounds a little strange to me...

If I am in business producing a product that is in short supply and the price is high because of demand pressure, why would I bust a gut to produce more to get the price down so I could make less profit? Sounds contrary to good business profit-making practice to me...

...which brings into question OPECs rhetoric about an upward revision of the oil price range to around $28 - $34 per barrel...really...just a politically correct gesture in all probability. Say one thing...do another...the way of national diplomacy.

I'm just cynically raving of course... We all know that politicians say exactly what they mean and only what is best for their constituents, their country and the world.

;-)
American Expression
(09/10/2004; 06:20:53 MDT - Msg ID: 124331)
The risks ahead for the world economy
http://www.economist.com/finance/displayStory.cfm?story_id=3172404
There are three reasons for this dismal prospect. First, American merchandise imports are now almost twice as large as exports; hence exports would have to grow twice as fast as imports merely to halt the deterioration. (In the past, such a relationship occurred only after the massive fall experienced by the dollar in 1985-87.) Second, economic growth is likely to remain faster in America than in its major markets and higher incomes there increase demand for imports much faster than income growth elsewhere increases demand for American exports. Third, America's large debtor position (it currently is in the red by more than $2.5 trillion) means that its net investment income payments to foreigners will escalate steadily, especially as interest rates rise.

Of course, it is virtually inconceivable that the markets will permit such deficits to eventuate. The only issue is how they are to be averted. An immediate resumption of the gradual decline of the dollar, as in the period 2002-03, cumulating in a fall of at least another 20%, is needed to reduce the deficits to sustainable levels.

If delayed much longer, the dollar's inevitable fall is likely to be much larger and much faster. Moreover, much of the slack in America's product and labour markets will probably have disappeared in a year or so. Sharp dollar depreciation at that stage would push up inflation and macroeconomic models suggest that American interest rates could even hit double digits.

The situation would be still worse if future increases in energy prices and the budget deficit compound such developments, as they surely could. The negative impact would also be much greater in other countries because of their need to generate larger and faster domestic demand increases in order to offset declining trade surpluses.
misetich
(09/10/2004; 06:58:09 MDT - Msg ID: 124332)
China's Industrial Output Growth Accelerates to 15.9%
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000080&sid=aaXPxidwGPuI&refer=asiaSnip:

Sept. 10 (Bloomberg) -- China's industrial production growth unexpectedly accelerated in August, fueling speculation the central bank will raise its benchmark interest rate for the first time in nine years.

Production rose 15.9 percent from a year earlier to 455 billion yuan ($55 billion) after climbing 15.5 percent in July, the Beijing-based National Bureau of Statistics said on its Web site. Output was expected to gain 15 percent, according to the median forecast of eight economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
.....................
**************
Misetich

CHINA keeps on growing in leaps and bounds - though oil demand "growth" is supposedly decelerating according to IEA-anectodal reports show otherwise- oil consumption is still rising higher than expected

CHINA's economic growth is the foundation for higher energy and commodities prices worlwide.

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
misetich
(09/10/2004; 07:12:52 MDT - Msg ID: 124333)
US Trade Deficit balloons to over $50 billions
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000087&sid=a3YxgKmzKIOw&refer=top_world_newsSnip:

The $50.1 billion trade gap, down 8.9 percent from June's $55 billion shortfall, was still the second largest on record. The trade gap with China grew to $14.9 billion, the widest ever.
....................
``We're exporting quite a bit right now, but primarily to emerging markets, particularly those markets that are in the mining business and oil and gas-related industries,'' James Owens, chief executive officer of Caterpillar Inc., said in an interview. The Peoria, Illinois, company is the world's largest maker of earthmoving equipment.
....................
The U.S. trade deficit through July totaled $339 billion, compared with $289.6 billion in the first seven months of 2003. The deficit for all of last year was $496.5 billion.
**************
Misetich

The spinmasters are attempting to soft-play the ballooning trade deficit - yet July number is 2nd on record high to June's 2004

The trade deficit for 2004 is on pace to exceed $560 billion, assuming a "conservative" average of $45 billions per months for the remaining 5 months

The budget deficit adds additional woes as it is currently running at $ 35 billions per month using Cash basis and $250 billion per month using GAAP

Corporate earning warnings are accelerating -thus a stock market correction is imminent as warning earning season will soon be upon us

GDP growth is decelerating - layoffs are increasing - inventory rising and retail sales are subdued

Not a pretty picture for the US $

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
misetich
(09/10/2004; 07:26:22 MDT - Msg ID: 124334)
Raw Materials Price Inflation up 22%
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000087&sid=a_ijvGUZOXOA&refer=top_world_newsSnip:

Raw materials prices are 22 percent higher than they were last year, an increase that companies are reluctant to pass along in order to stay competitive. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said in congressional testimony this week that oil prices aren't causing inflation to accelerate.
.......................
*************
Misetich

There was no delay in trumpting the "good news" on PPI numbers this morning - yet year over year the price rise is astounding and as CHINA keeps on marching on there's little relief in sight for consumers and corporate earnings

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
Smeagol
(09/10/2004; 07:28:39 MDT - Msg ID: 124335)
Ssir Gandalf and other Chart-lovers
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/Exchange/9807/Charts/SP500/Outlook.htm
...you like chartses... have a look at thiss... LOTS of chartses, and commentary to boot or keep... we like the inflation-adjussted metal chartses, and the debt and savings-as-percentage of GDP chartses, and the eerie sscary blasst-from-the-passt-bond-market-crash-sscenario ones at the beginning (shudder)...and...O, well, ALL of them!

S.
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(09/10/2004; 09:29:21 MDT - Msg ID: 124336)
What you need to know -- BEFORE you buy your first ounce of gold...
http://www.usagold.com/cpm/aboutcpm.html

Q. What makes USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals different from its competitors in terms of its interaction with clients?

MK. Our business philosophy allows us to take a more laid-back approach. We don't employ a room full of brokers spinning the phones day and night. We don't have multi-million dollar advertising expenses dictating what kind of advice we give clients. This is all by choice. I decided long ago that I didn't want the headaches that go with managing a large number of brokers and the support staff and facilities required. At the same time, we get hundreds of requests each month for introductory information packets. We do not make cold calls. We do not work mailing lists. We do not call people at all hours of the day or night. We do not use marketing and sales gimmicks -- leaders, bait and switch, and the rest of it. We primarily work with clients who have discovered us, like what they see, and want to form a long term relationship with a reputable and reliable gold firm.

Q. Does the "laid-back approach" limit your business?

MK. Yes and no. In the short run, "yes." In the long run, "no." We probably lose a few prospects to the aggressive companies which use hard-sell tactics but we will not be changing our client-friendly approach. We know that not every prospective investor is going to become a client of USAGOLD / Centennial. However, we know that the client who chooses us is likely to be the type of client we are accustomed to doing business with. We work with a large number of professional people and business owners -- active, retired and semi-retired. In fact, we work with clientele that span the economic spectrum and all walks of life. Getting back to how our approach sets us apart from our competitors, we get quite a few disgruntled high net worth clients who come to us after being run through the mill by some of the boiler-room operations I've referred to earlier. They are usually grateful that they found us.

Q. And finally, is there anything else you would like to share with us?

MK. Fundamentally, we believe that we are here to serve the client. Anyone who has done business with us will vouch for the courteous and professional service he or she has received. Our staff is carefully chosen and it shows. We get referrals on nearly a daily basis and are kept busy with strong repeat business. I would also like to call attention to the solid informational services offered at this website. We believe that any of our clients or visitors will find USAGOLD head and shoulders above anything else out there. I would encourage anyone attending this site to have a look around. We also publish a very handy e-mail newsletter available to clients and prospective clients. Above and beyond that, the most important thing is the way we treat our clientele. From first inquiry through order fulfillment, we want to make the gold investing experience as pleasant and rewarding as possible. We have a large and satisfied clientele and that's the way we want to keep it.

TownCrier
(09/10/2004; 09:45:03 MDT - Msg ID: 124337)
COMEX gold lifted by data as Sept 11 attacks observed
http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh09107_2004-09-10_14-11-51_n10360929_newsmlNEW YORK, Sept 10 (Reuters) - Data showing the U.S. trade deficit remained huge, and confirming that inflation was tame enough to keep the Federal Reserve from aggressively raising interest rates, hit the dollar and lifted COMEX gold Friday morning.

Safe-haven support for gold remains a legacy of the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks on the World Trade Center by hijacked jetliners that destroyed the complex and its landmark twin towers.

Traders on the NYMEX and COMEX were to observe moments of silence Friday ... marking the times that each tower was hit and its subsequent collapse.

At 9:20 a.m., December gold was up $3.10 at $403.50...

The $50.15 billion July trade gap was slightly smaller than expected, and down from June's record $55.02 billion, but still pointed to a noncompetitive exchange rate for the greenback.

-----(from url)----

If, upon awaking from a multi-year nap, Rip van Winkle had been given a geopolitical and economic briefing of the state of the world today, upon reaching the point where he was told that gold could be had for only $400/oz, his first reaction would be to think that he was still dreaming.

His next reaction would be to find the nearest phone and have Mike, George, Jonathan, Marie or Greg at USAGOLD~Centennial lock in an order for enough gold to fill his knapsack.

The call is free, the staff are friendly. 1-800-869-5115

R.
American Expression
(09/10/2004; 10:22:51 MDT - Msg ID: 124338)
U.S. Treasuries lower following "ugly" auction
http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=bondsNews&storyID=6195974

SNIPS:

NEW YORK, Sept 9 (Reuters) - Treasuries prices turned lower in choppy trade on Thursday as an auction of U.S. government debt drew almost no private demand, leaving the dealer community holding a pile of paper.

"It was an extremely ugly auction. And that's something nobody wants to see, not the Street and certainly not Treasury given the amount of borrowing they have to do," said Sadakichi Robbins, head of global fixed-income trading at Bank Julius Baer.

Indirect bidders, including customers of primary dealers and foreign central banks, picked up only 2.8 percent of the issue. That compares to 54 percent in the original sale of the notes and 38 percent at the last reopening.

"The real surprise is that none of the usual indirect bidders turned up," said Robbins. "Maybe they were scared away by the jump in direct bidding (Wednesday) though they were going to get sucked in to paying more than they wanted."

With dealers now stuck with an excess of 10-year paper, analysts said there was a risk they would seek to sell it off quickly to avoid even larger losses.

Bhagavatula, however, noted that excluding petroleum, import prices were up a not inconsiderable 3.2 percent on the year. "Perhaps Greenspan was a bit premature in calling the inflation threat over," he said.

-END SNIPS-

So whom was the mystery buyer? The FED forced to monetize public debt again? Got gold?
USAGOLD Daily Market Report
(09/10/2004; 15:14:48 MDT - Msg ID: 124339)
Page Update!
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Daily Gold Market Report has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.

---closing market excerpts----

The most-active Dec contract settled $3.40 higher at $403.80 per ounce...

Comex Gold futures stretched to four-day highs Friday on fund and dealer buying spurred by the marked decline seen in the U.S. dollar.

While the trade gap lowered slightly in July on lower crude oil imports, it remained at a hefty $50.15 billion to weigh on investor sentiment.

The U.S. dollar was pressured to 14-day lows against the euro and 13-day lows of the U.S. Dollar Index on fresh concerns about the effects of the large U.S. trade deficit after San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen warned late Thursday that the current account deficit will continue to expand if the dollar remains at present levels.

Dealers said that with Federal Reserve policymakers openly expressing concerns about the long-term effects of the drag caused by the deficit, international investors may curb their appetite for the greenback going forward, which would support dollar alternatives such as gold.

"The fact that we're hearing more open criticisms from policymakers about the deficit is good for gold as it means the dollar will remain under pressure," said a dealer with a U.S. investment bank.

Increased speculative interest might emerge in gold over the near to medium term in anticipation of further losses in the U.S. dollar relative to other currencies, he said.

-----(see url for access to full news, 24-hr newswire)----

Present Headlines:

Dollar Slumps Amid Producer-Price and Trade-Gap Data -- iwon.com News

Speculators turn more bearish in US bond futures -- Borsa Italiana - News

Bush administration wants more flexibility on Chinese currency -- Fort Wayne News-Sentinel, Indiana

Wall Street metals - Gold eyes U.S. economic data, closes at one-week high -- ample.com News

Average forex e-trade sizes on the rise -- FX Week

India seeks to throttle down rising inflation -- The Himalayan Times - Business

U.K. Energy Co. Plots Return To Dollar Hedging -- Derivatives Week

Demand For Euro/Dollar Options Ignited By Greenspan Speech -- Derivatives Week

Luxembourg prime minister chosen as "Mr Euro" -- China View - Business

IMF cautions Pakistan on rising inflation -- The Daily Star, Bangladesh - Business

Cheney: Economic Stats Miss EBay Sales -- Herald-Sun, North Carolina - Business
misetich
(09/10/2004; 15:46:08 MDT - Msg ID: 124340)
Fed Poole concedes on the Euro rising as reserve currency
http://www.economeister.com/reg/popup/popup_frameset.jsp?banner=mainwire&disp=single_story&sn=1&ts=1094845980000Snip:

In the context of global financial markets and the panel discussion on current accounts, Poole also said that "over time" he "would expect the euro would get wider circulation" as it gains ground on the dollar as a reserve currency.

He said he could imagine more assets flowing into euros should the U.S. economy stumble or pronounced inflation take hold.
..................
CLAYTON, Missouri (MktNews) - The summer dip in the U.S. economy Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan himself called a "soft patch" would not necessarily be labeled a pronounced period of weakness, Saint Louis Federal Reserve Bank President William Poole concurred Friday.
************
Misetich

Day after day the US Current Account deteriorates - To make matter worse its economic growth is also decelerating

The "soft-patch" aka "quicksand" is already 3 months old heading into a 4th and as The 2004 Oil Shock And Awe continues the US $ will require a downward adjustment of at least ANOTHER 30% to reflect market reality

Fed Poole KNOWS its just a matter of time as the Euro gains market share on the US $ daily for reserve currency status

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
Liberty Head
(09/10/2004; 17:01:14 MDT - Msg ID: 124341)
Once upon a time....

there were three little pigs and the time came for them to leave home and seek their fortunes.
Before they left, their mother told them " Whatever you do , do it the best that you can because that's the way to get along in the world.
The first little pig built his house out of dollars because it was the easiest thing to do.
The second little pig built his house out of euros. This was a little bit stronger than a straw house.
The third little pig built his house out of bricks of gold.
One night the big bad wolf, who dearly loved to eat fat little piggies, came along and saw the first little pig in his house of dollars. He said "Let me in, Let me in, little pig or I'll huff and I'll puff and I'll blow your house in!"
"Not by the hair of my chinny chin chin", said the little pig.
But of course the wolf did blow the house in and ate the first little pig.
The wolf then came to the house of euros.
"Let me in ,Let me in little pig or I'll huff and I'll puff and I'll blow your house in"
"Not by the hair of my chinny chin chin", said the little pig. But the wolf blew that house in too, and ate the second little pig.
The wolf then came to the house of bricks of gold.
" Let me in , let me in" cried the wolf
"Or I'll huff and I'll puff till I blow your house in"
"Not by the hair of my chinny chin chin" said the pig.
Well, the wolf huffed and puffed but he could not blow down that brick house.
But the wolf was a sly old wolf and he climbed up on the roof to look for a way into the brick house.
The little pig saw the wolf climb up on the roof and lit a roaring fire in the fireplace and placed on it a large kettle of water.
When the wolf finally found the hole in the chimney he crawled down and KERSPLASH right into that kettle of water and that was the end of his troubles with the big bad wolf.
The next day the little pig invited his mother over . She said "You see it is just as I told you. The way to get along in the world is to do things as well as you can." Fortunately for that little pig, he learned that lesson. And he just lived happily ever after!
-------------

Best Wishes
1340cc
(09/10/2004; 18:48:23 MDT - Msg ID: 124342)
Three Little Pigs
Liberty, Hope there isn't a copy right on that story or "Big Brother" will come after you.......for telling the truth! LOL
mikal
(09/10/2004; 21:21:43 MDT - Msg ID: 124343)
Taxing debt and debting taxes
http://www.etherzone.com/2004/henr091004.shtmlCAGNEY FACTOR
MISPLACED HERO WORSHIP By: Ed Henry
Like an old movie, we tend to make heroes out of bad guys, evildoers, lawbreakers who show us a human side or a spark of decency. Somehow, we can identify with the criminal who bucks the system, violates the rules of society, even kills people, but shows that he too had a mother, loves someone possibly equally evil, or can sing and dance while making pithy remarks that amuse us. This has always been very profitable meat for Hollywood and some social psychologists.
However, when this sort of misplaced hero worship happens in real life it's a different story. When it is no longer the sort of cathartic effect of harmlessly releasing some of our own innermost feelings of resentment and translates into idolizing or at least tolerating some of the people who do us the most harm, then it's very dangerous.
For example, we've lionized two of the figures who raised our payroll taxes far beyond what was necessary and set it up for the federal government to rip-off major portions of our retirement money since at least 1983. One of these people, Senator Daniel Patrick Moynihan, became known as "Mr. Social Security" while the other, Senator Bob Dole, even ran for President.
Here's the rest of the story.
By 1982, during the first years of the Reagan administration, there had been seven years in a row that Social Security had been forced to draw upon its trust fund (Federal Old Age & Survivors Insurance and the combined Federal Disability Insurance trust funds). The amounts never exceeded five billion a year and the trust funds still held about $30 billion in accumulated bonds, but politicians go absolutely bananas when they have to turn to this trust. (see chart)
The reason for their hysteria is that there is never any money or liquid asset in the trust fund, never. What is there is nothing but debt markers left behind when the government "borrowed" our money. To redeem these markers money must come from the General Fund of the Treasury or from borrowing. This is what drives politicians nutsy because they must either run up the national debt or do without discretionary spending they've already promised elsewhere, particularly the perks they've promised local constituents. And in their hearts, they know that they're double billing us for money they stole plus interest.
After so many years of these draw downs, Reagan appointed the Greenspan Commission to study what could be done to reform the supplemental retirement insurance program. Alan Greenspan was an independent financial advisor at the time.
After meeting once a month for a year, the commission delivered, in January 1983, a wishy-washy report dealing primarily with actuarial data and little Congress could sink its teeth into. (If you want the full report, contact me.)
Then Robert Dole wrote an article for the New York Times in which he said that republicans were not opposed to working hand-in-hand with democrats to get things done. Moynihan cornered Dole in the halls of Congress and asked him if he really meant it, and if so, they should get together to "fix" Social Security.
By 1983, the recession was over and the economy was recovering. Social Security didn't need fixing. But Dole and Moynihan put forth a bill to raise payroll taxes to 15.3 percent over the next few years and by March, one month after their hallway meeting, Congress passed and President Reagan signed the bill.
Everyone thought that if Dole and Moynihan had been members of the Greenspan Commission, they must know what they're talking about. They swiftly passed the raise and saved themselves the effort of reading through the commission's Greenspeak or Professor Irwin Corey style cipher.
In a 1998 speech to the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University titled "Social Security Saved," senator Moynihan laid out exactly how this happened and even said; "Social Security was secure for the time being. Indeed, the payroll tax generated a considerable surplus which we have lived off ever since, and will continue to enjoy for yet a few years."
Yes indeed, in fiscal 2001 the government "enjoyed" a $97.3 billion surplus from our retirement money. In 2002, it was $88.6 billion and in 2003 it was $82 billion. This is your retirement money that the federal government continues to squander elsewhere while leaving debt behind. Debt that only you, the taxpayer, can redeem in a unique form of double taxation plus interest. It's a scam that makes Enron pale in comparison.
As of July 30th, the Social Security trust fund holds $1.628 trillion in debt markers, 22.3 percent of the national debt.
Now, we are about to be dazzled by the ministry of propaganda's presidential debates. Face-to-face statements by the candidates with speech writer answers to pre-submitted and approved questions that are much the same as speeches delivered across the country without their opponent present.
One by one, the "penetrating" questions will be presented calmly by one of the ministry's talking heads who is not currently embedded on the beaches of Florida or the winds in some Gulf state like Texas and covering such sterling subjects as gay marriage, assault weapon legislation, who can best lead and expand the military-industrial empire, and maybe, just maybe, one or two questions about the economy, job losses, our open borders or why everyone is so hot to implement the recommendations of the congressional committee on intelligence when we've already had three years to develop a Homeland Security network and the Patriot Acts one and two. All with each candidate allowed one canned answer on each subject.
The only real difference between these so-called debates and the everyday speeches of candidates will be the absence of news breaks on the Kobe Bryant non-case, the Michael Jackson situation, Scott Peterson and Robert Blake examples of our American culture along with Dr. Gupta telling us what to eat.
Again, Social Security will be publicized as an issue that the debates will never get around to, which is just as well because any questions coming from the mathematically challenged media would be shallow and off the mark anyway. It's too much to expect that either the current President or his opponent from the Senate Finance Committee would be put on the spot to answer questions like how the Social Security trust funds became more than 22 percent of the national debt, or for that matter, how Bush has managed to run up the national debt almost a trillion dollars since May 23, 2003, and where the money went.
"Published originally at EtherZone.com : republication allowed with this notice and hyperlink intact."
misetich
(09/11/2004; 05:37:55 MDT - Msg ID: 124344)
Labor Daze � Understating Unemployment - Paul L. Kasriel
http://www.ntrs.com/library/econ_research/weekly/us/pc090304.pdfSnip:

September 3, 2004 Labor Daze �

The nation's unemployment rate overstates the strength in the labor market. In August, the participation rate (civilian labor force as a percent of the civilian
noninstitutional population) dropped to 66.0% from 66.2%. The unemployment rate does not capture the steady decline in the participation since the 2001 recession and the expansion thereafter. Typically, the participation rate increases as the economy recovers. By contrast, in the current expansion, the participation rate has shown a net decline in the entire expansion period, with only a small turnaround in the July-August period (see chart 2). From chart 2 it is clear that the participation rate in the current expansion is the worst on record in the post WWII era. This decline in the participation rate is referred to as the "missing labor force" by the Economic Policy Institute (EPI). According to the EPI, taking account of the "missing labor force" (individuals who have dropped out of the labor force entirely or have kept away from the labor force because of a lack of jobs) would yield a considerably higher unemployment rate compared with the official unemployment rate (estimated at 7.4% in February 2004 when the official unemployment rate was 5.6%).
.................
From an historical perspective, payroll employment in the current expansion continues to rank at the bottom of the post-WWII cycles (see chart 6, interpret chart 6 according to the note describing chart 2). On average, there was an 8.0% increase in payroll employment 11 quarters after a trough in economic activity. In the current recovery/expansion, payroll employment is barely higher than what was seen at the trough of the current business cycle. It is noteworthy that during the previous jobless expansion of the 1991 cycle, payroll employment was nearly 3.0% higher than the trough after 11 quarters of growth.
If the current recovery in nonfarm payrolls were comparable to the average post WWII performance, a total of 10.5 million jobs would have been created compared with a meager increase of 604,000 jobs. But hey, at the least the trend, feeble as it may be, is finally on the upward direction.
....................
Paul L. Kasriel, Director of Economic Research
***************
Misetich

The big egoes at the Federal Reserve THOUGHT that the US was better prepared than Japan to deal with a market burst.

Reality shows otherwise. Several years later, the US is strill struggling. The ACHILLI is LACK OF JOB CREATION.

The tax base is eroding thus higher budget deficits.

Unemployment is significantly higher than being reported - probably understated by at least 2-4%.

Making matters worse the "employed" numbers include millions in part-time and temporary jobs.

Consumer spending has been resilient - though - artificially aided by "temporary means" such as Asset Inflation (housing ) and corresponding higher indebtness.

The Feds alleged market intervention through the Japan proxy
has kept long term IR artificially low and boosted the US $

The 2004 Oil Shock And Awe is continuing - and its effects are being underestimated by the markets and its powerful force will overwhelm the market manipulators

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
misetich
(09/11/2004; 06:12:08 MDT - Msg ID: 124345)
Global: Spinning Its Wheels - S. Roach
http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/latest-digest.htmlSnip:

As the US economy now enters the 34th month of the current expansion, debate over sustainability remains as intense as ever. In a recent congressional appearance, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan stated, "the expansion has regained some traction" after having gone through an energy-price-induced soft patch last spring. With all due respect to Mr. Greenspan, at this point in time, such a claim is largely an assertion based on a very creative interpretation of ever-volatile hard data. In my view, the case for traction in the US economy remains a weak one.
..................
The issue of traction is key to the current debate because this recovery has yet to stand on its own. Since the last recession ended in late 2001, the US economy has drawn unusual support from several artificial factors -- namely, massive policy stimulus (monetary and fiscal), saving depletion, the levering of assets, and the costless funding of domestic growth by foreign central banks. Hooked on the high-powered "steroids" of such extraordinary life-support measures, America hasn't had to rely on the internal fuel of accelerating wage income generation that normally facilitates a transition from recovery to expansion. And that's for good reason -- there has been an extraordinary and enduring shortfall in wage income generation since the inception of the current recovery. Based on data over the first 32 months of this upturn, real wage and salary disbursements have recorded a cumulative increase of just 2.2%. By contrast, by this same juncture in the previous six business cycles, real wage income had recorded a 10.6% average increase. Had wage income generation during this expansion matched the composite profile of past cycles, American consumers would have had an additional $339 billion of discretionary purchasing power at their disposal. That's the equivalent of 4.3% of total real disposable personal income -- hardly a trivial sum by any standards.
.....................
On the job front, private nonfarm payrolls are now up only 0.3% over the first 33 months of this expansion. By contrast, at similar junctures of the past six cycles, the increase averaged 7.8%.
..................
The gap between the hiring trajectory of this expansion and the composite profile of these earlier recoveries works out to an employment shortfall of 8.2 million workers in the private economy. A similar pattern shows up in real wages -- comparisons in the current cycle are running an astonishing 0.3% below year-earlier levels (as measured by CPI-deflated average hourly earnings).
..................
Once again, Fed Chairman Greenspan has led the optimistic charge. And once again, I find myself on the other side of this positive spin. Yes, consumer demand rebounded in July, but that came after a terrible June; the average change in real consumption expenditures over the two months was only +0.2% -- actually a shade below an already subdued pace in the first five months of 2004.
.................
Meanwhile there are signs of mounting inventory backups -- a classic warning sign of production adjustments to come. Unfortunately, the inventory data lag other statistics, but it now looks as if total business stocks rose by at least 0.9% in July following a 1.0% increase in June -- marking the sharpest back-to-back monthly gains since before the last recession
.................
Detroit has already announced significant production cutbacks in 4Q04 that will probably knock at least 0.5 percentage point off annualized real GDP growth.
.......................
But the most fascinating insight of all into business attitudes may be the $38.7 billion spike in corporate stock buyback announcements that occurred in July -- the strongest such surge in 20 years and fully four times the average monthly pace of the past year
.................
For America, that will be the ultimate moment of truth -- when the economy then comes face-to-face with the lingering imbalances of subpar income generation, sharply reduced saving, an ever-widening current-account imbalances, and a record overhang of household indebtedness.

Notwithstanding this looming reality check, financial markets have deep conviction that a reacceleration of economic growth is imminent. If that were not the case, why else would fixed income markets still be pricing in another 50 bp of Fed tightening by year end and another 100 bp of rate hikes over the four quarters of next year? Why would equity markets still be looking for sustained corporate earnings growth? Or why would the dollar continue to defy the gravity of a looming current-account adjustment? Make no mistake, the traction bet is on -- by policy makers, financial markets, and incumbent Republican politicians. Yet this could well be a losing bet. For an income-short American consumer, traction remains as elusive as ever. A structurally-impaired US economy might only be spinning its wheels.
**************
Misetich

Stephen Roach has been on a roll - His experience factor of having worked within the Fed Reserve in the 70's gives him a decided edge over The Maestro in understanding the US economy

The cheerleading reckless Maestro has gambled and lost. Rather than cutting his losses and quit - he stubbornly insists on the same track of illusionary and manage market perception.

That strategy has failed miserably in the last 4 years and with Oil prices ready to rise upwards of the $50's and $60's as US elections round in - the market "sitting ducks" will realize that the edge of the abyss (Bank of England's George) has been reached

All Aboard The Gold Bull Expess - Part ll
misetich
(09/11/2004; 06:26:31 MDT - Msg ID: 124346)
US business conditions are deteriorating - R. Brenner
http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/latest-digest.htmlSnip:

Business conditions weakened in September, according to the Morgan Stanley Business Conditions Index (MSBCI), falling below the 50% threshold that represents improving breadth.
....................
fell by seven points to 47%, the lowest reading since April 2003.
...............
The Advance Bookings Index continued its plunge in September, falling 15 points to 48%, below the 50% threshold
.................
That said, companies remained cautious in early September. Only 25% of reporting analysts said that advance bookings were up for the next 1�6 months compared with the previous three months, down from 46% in July; 30% said that advance bookings were lower.
.....................
Pricing conditions continued to improve in September, although at a slower rate. The index fell by five points to 60%, as 53% of respondents reported that companies have increased prices from a year ago and 33% reported that companies have lowered them.
................
Prices are beginning to increase for the credit card issuers as they start to reprice their fixed rate cards to avoid the margin compression that would otherwise result from rising rates. Prices also increased by 3% or more from a year ago for all reporting groups within the healthcare sector and by 1-3% for all industrial groups with the exception of airlines. By and large, household and personal care companies continue to pass commodity price hikes through to consumers, while retailers report that they have been able to sustain modest price increases from a year ago without losing volume.
.....................
Hiring headwinds�

Despite our contention that pent-up demand for hiring is strong, analysts reported that hiring breadth moderated in September.
.................
We expect capex plans to slow as the "bonus depreciation" feature of current tax law expires at year-end
..................
*************
Misetich

Brenner is the "optimist" economist at Morgan Stanley often taking the adverse side of S. Roach

A change in his "optimistic" projections have been noted in the last couple of months as he has toned down growth expectations by a wide margin.

It appears only the Feds see the US economy regaining traction - risking whatever is left of their creditability

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
Boilermaker
(09/11/2004; 08:00:46 MDT - Msg ID: 124347)
Ominous News Parallel?
This may have only an abstract connection to gold but here's something that could portend some sort of nasty event.

Remember the Gary Condit - Chandra Levy disappearance case that was at the forefront of the news in the month's preceeding 9/11/2001? That obsession with devious personal conduct by a politician and the lengths to which the media covered it reminds me of the current obsession with the 2004 presidential candidates' Viet Nam war era records. The media and the candidates have fallen into a debate over events more than 30 years ago that neither one can win and obscures really serious issues.

The outcome? Look for a 9/11 type event to refocus the debate.
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(09/11/2004; 10:14:54 MDT - Msg ID: 124348)
Hard assets, easy access!
http://www.usagold.com/buy-gold-coins.html

gold -- a global calling card
Liberty Head
(09/11/2004; 13:05:38 MDT - Msg ID: 124349)
Boilermaker - Re: Debates

The fundamentals that lead to 9/11 have not been the focus of change by our government.
So, I agree that more terrorist reprisals are likely to happen.
As for the debates, they may refocus a million times, but the debates will never be more than a public financed advertisement for still greater goverment expansion.
The only point of contention between the two major parties will be over which area of government should expand the quickest.
That is a certainty that is as good as gold.
Hint hint wink wink
------------------

Best Wishes
Smeagol
(09/11/2004; 14:00:33 MDT - Msg ID: 124350)
There was a picture in the paper today... twin beams of light rising from Manhattan Isle, a memorial of the Two Towers that fell... there is ssuch a tragic metaphor and a
sstrong irony there... two great buildings gone, replaced by inssubstantial towers of light that yet consume power... sso very much like the Gold and other Wealth that has been replaced by worthless paper-promises of future gain...

In both of these instances, yet O! sso much greater in the latter, there was and is losst much of that Mosst Precious of Wealth, and that is Life... sons, daughters, sisters, brothers, mothers, fathers, friends, relatives... we will remember them, O yess, precious we will... and we will prepare for yet more of the ssame, and take what bitter comfort there is in knowing that though Life will continue to be losst to ignorance and greed until the End, on a time there will come a day when ALL debts on ALL sides, including those of Truth, and Justice delayed, will be paid... in full.

S.
Great Albino Bat
(09/11/2004; 14:56:41 MDT - Msg ID: 124351)
A sign of things to come? "Unknown parties" buy the bonds?
Sudden drop in US bond demand
By Jennifer Hughes in New York
Published: September 10 2004 03:00 | Last updated: September 10 2004 03:00
A Treasury auction of US government bonds yesterday attracted almost no private demand, creating confusion in the bond markets following a sale on Wednesday that had pulled in unprecedented private appetite.

Bond prices fell in the market after the Treasury revealed yesterday that indirect bidders, who include foreign central banks and other official institutions, took only 2.9 per cent of the bonds on offer compared with an average of about 32 per cent at the previous 10 auctions.

The sale, of $9bn in 10-year paper, was largely bought up by primary dealers - banks who are licensed to deal directly with the Federal Reserve and in return have to underwrite the auction. Usually primary dealers buy about one-third for their own account but the lack of appetite yesterday meant they took 96 per cent. The bonds on offer were a regular re-opening, or repeat, of bonds offered last month.

"Indirect bidding is sometimes lower on a re-opening but its hard to explain this," said Rick Klingman, head of US Treasury trading at ABN Amro.

The previous record low for indirect bids was 19.9 per cent.

Yesterday's surprise collapse in demand added to a sense of unease following unprecedented levels of direct buying in a $15bn auction of five-year notes the day before. Bidders who deal direct with the Treasury usually only amount to about 1 per cent of any auction but on Wednesday, unknown parties took about one-third of the bonds on offer instead of going through the banks, prompting fears that Wall Street could be losing its grip on the market.

****************

The GAB:

So, "unknown parties" bought $3 billion of Treasury notes?
Foreigners were practically absent (2.9% of bids as against an average of 32% in 10 previous auctions).

If it's the Fed buying up the Treasuries that weren't sold, then this is the begining of serious MONETARY INFLATION.

And, how come foreign Central Banks and Institutions were so noticeably absent? Change of policy? Momentous indeed!

We should be hearing a lot more about this, shortly!

The GAB

Paper Avalanche
(09/11/2004; 20:09:02 MDT - Msg ID: 124352)
GAB - Monetization of Bonds & Hyperinflation
Greetings Sir GAB!

I believe that "unknown parties" have been buying the 10 year bond in the secondary markets with dollars printed out of thin air for many months now.

I believe that foreign & private holders have been dishording their US govt bonds and, in an effort to keep interest rates below natural market rates, "unknown parties" have been buying every bond offered for sale with magically created new dollars.

The story that you posted highlights that the other 5.7 billion people on the planet may be growing weary of financing our lifestyle.

Could it be that foreign investors caught on that "unknown parties" were buying bonds in the open market with limitless quantities of dollars magically created from nothing? It appears that, having realized this, our foreign benefactors may take their ball and go home.

If my theory is correct, we are witnessing a watershed event in monetary history and the hyperinflation that the sages on the Gold Trail predicted may not be too far off.

Take care.

Paper Avalanche
Cometose
(09/12/2004; 09:41:19 MDT - Msg ID: 124353)
Last Weeks anemic response to Bond auction
This is reminecsent of the 1987 Bond Collapse where demand for US Securities dried up ...........and the dollar responded in kind .
Cometose
(09/12/2004; 10:47:08 MDT - Msg ID: 124354)
Hui vs the S&P Oct 2000- Present
THis comparison shows unhedged Precious metals Mining companies
have performed illustrating their Value versus the Faltering S&P as it cratered on numerous occasions during the same period......

This also illustrates that there is a stealth movement of capital into this sector all along as a Vacuum is created in the confidence of the holders of the other sectors represented by S&P NASDAQ, and Dow.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$HUI,uu[w,a]waclyyay[pb50!b200][vc60][iUp5,3,3!La12,26,9]⪯f=G

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$spx,uu[w,a]waclyyay[pb50!b200][vc60][iUp5,3,3!La12,26,9]⪯f=G


There is not reason to expect that this trend will not continue to be born out in both cases; the S&P may continue to falter and the Hui may continue to rise .
Cometose
(09/12/2004; 10:59:11 MDT - Msg ID: 124355)
US DOLLAR Oct2000 to present
To look at the Dollar chart of the same period as
S& P and HUI of past 4 years .............gives more light on
the strenght of the Hui during the past 4 years.

THis also may give some substance to the argument that
the HUI will continue to rise regardless of what the Stock Indexes of the other Sectors (DJIA SPX and Nasdaq) do as long as the trend of the Dollar continues on the present trajectory .
Cometose
(09/12/2004; 11:02:01 MDT - Msg ID: 124356)
Dollar chart
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$USD,uu[w,a]waclyyay[pb50!b200][vc60][iUp5,3,3!La12,26,9]⪯f=G
Cometose
(09/12/2004; 11:10:33 MDT - Msg ID: 124357)
Dollar chart 1986 to present
http://www.futuresource.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=DX&o=&a=M&z=800x550&d=HIGH&b=bar&st=
Cometose
(09/12/2004; 11:19:43 MDT - Msg ID: 124358)
1987 T Bond Train Wreck
http://www.futuresource.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=US&o=&a=M&z=800x550&d=HIGH&b=bar&st=
Cometose
(09/12/2004; 11:37:23 MDT - Msg ID: 124359)
Large 5 year pennant formation in TBOND market
Since high recent high of 2003 , Two new lower highs and two new lower lows..............and counting

If last weeks auction is any indication

There may be a #$$#)))^%&%&& Storm DEAD ahead .....

There's a huge drop in the Bond Market chart For 10 Year and 30 year in NOV DEC of 99..........

Anyone know what this represents ? Is this when the fed announced no more issue of 30 Year Bonds?

Interesting this happened on the heals of of Washington
Agreement announcement of September of the same year ...
Please correct me if I am wrong......!!!!

Anyone know that this drop in bond market of 4th quarter 99
is ???
Gandalf the White
(09/12/2004; 12:06:47 MDT - Msg ID: 124360)
Comment to Sir Cometose
THANKS for all the LINKS, but if you place the link in the BOX at the BOTTOM of the message page (directly above the "SUBMIT MESSAGE" box that you click upon to send the message, --- WE all can surf much faster !
<;-)
Cometose
(09/12/2004; 12:07:53 MDT - Msg ID: 124361)
Fed Auction and Fed Governor YELLEN statement
These two items taken together within 1 day of each other may indicate the same thing the pennant in the Bond Chart indicates.................

there may be a precipitating event in the next couple of weeks ...........However.......

Very likely , it is not going to have anything to do with Terrorism

it rather has to do with a ticking time bomb ......
residing in PRESENT and CONTINUING FED POLICY ......
and the policy of the current administration mired in unsustainable irresponsible unrestrained Fiscal policy


Where there is no vision , the people perish Proverbs 29.18

According to one text ....the phrase perish is to wander aimlessly.........

According to another text this wandering aimlessly ...is to give oneself over to unrestrained behavior.........


If the shoe fits wear it .....

If this description is congruent with present circumstances, any and all tumult should come as no suprise at all and should indeed be expected.
Cometose
(09/12/2004; 12:11:45 MDT - Msg ID: 124362)
Gandalf
Thank you for your help : I hoped someone would help me with this; i thought I remembered this option field somewhere on Submit message page.....again ....
Many THanks ..for your help .
Gandalf the White
(09/12/2004; 12:16:32 MDT - Msg ID: 124363)
Question on a slow Sunday morning (my time zone) <;-)
Have you ever bothered to think about all the advertizing slogans and uses of the "GOOD AS GOLD" thought ?
Why do you think that most all the items that I pick at the grocery store have a "gold this" or a "GOLD MEDAL AWARD" showing on the outer wrapping ?
I shall have the Hobbits count these items this next month and find out the percentage of such.
Any guesses as to the percentage ?
<;-)
Cometose
(09/12/2004; 12:23:35 MDT - Msg ID: 124364)
Gold's Response to BOND and DOLLAR market route in 86-87
http://www.futuresource.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=GC&o=&a=M&z=800x550&d=HIGH&b=bar&st=Here's a picture of Gold's performance during former Rout of bond market and dollar market in period between 86-87
Gandalf the White
(09/12/2004; 12:27:12 MDT - Msg ID: 124365)
AND -- for your education is this BIS communication ====> see LINK
http://www.bis.org/bcbs/commentletters/iasb14.pdfThis was sent to me last night from HK, by Sir Felix the Cat ! THANKS FC !!
(also look at the name of the person to whom the communication is addressed!)
<;-)
Cometose
(09/12/2004; 12:29:14 MDT - Msg ID: 124366)
cuphandle
http://www.futuresource.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=GC&o=&a=M&z=800x550&d=HIGH&b=bar&st=the cuphandle on the former GOLD CHART is not unlike that that formed on the chart during 2002 and sprung uncoiled at the beginning of 2003.

The cuphandle that shows at the far end of this chart is seemingly more emphatic at this place on the chart....
Gandalf the White
(09/12/2004; 12:33:33 MDT - Msg ID: 124367)
Thanks Sir Cometose --- THAT CHART is a "KEEPER" !
Do you think that "history" will repeat itself ?
I DO !!
Give USAGOLD a call on Monday morning and get yourself some YELLOW !
A "GOLDEN OPPORTUNITY" !
<;-)
Cometose
(09/12/2004; 12:57:35 MDT - Msg ID: 124368)
WHere we are Now vs. Then
http://www.futuresource.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=GC&o=&a=M&z=800x550&d=HIGH&b=bar&st=Gandalf .......... I agree and think that history is going to repeat itself because of Immutable Laws of the invisible hand ........Adam Smith ...
Resources have to flow to their highest and best use ............and this law indicates at this time the higest and best use for paper is to purchase precious metals...... Capital must protect itself and flow from overvalued asset class to undervalued asset class........in the same manner that gravity makes water seek low ground......


having said that .........
I now have one thing to add.....

Looking at the chart .....and where we are at this juncture
with the background of the two events that happened last week with the GHOST BOND AUCTION and
Fed Governor Yellen's statment ........
and looking back to the Gold Price movement of 87 ,
I see more and more credence to Jim Sinclair's statement that
we are on the way to 480 .....in short order.....

Moreover....based on the present condition and predicament the Fed is in with regard to RATES relationship to BONDS and Real Estate Values (crash vulnerable).....and the presenly IRREPARABLE constitution of the triple deficits.......I can see the validity to the argument that we are encroaching of phase 2 of this BUll MARket in GOLD and therefor much higher prices than projected may be in order........

I have over the course of the last month heard the same unfamiliar voice calling for much higher GOld Prices.....than 480....
Cometose
(09/12/2004; 13:10:24 MDT - Msg ID: 124369)
1987 dollar
http://www.futuresource.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=DX&o=&a=M&z=800x550&d=HIGH&b=bar&st=Falling dollar 1987
Cometose
(09/12/2004; 13:13:29 MDT - Msg ID: 124370)
1987 Falling Bond market
http://www.futuresource.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=US&o=&a=M&z=800x550&d=HIGH&b=bar&st=1987 Bond Market
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(09/12/2004; 13:23:59 MDT - Msg ID: 124371)
What you need to know before you buy your first ounce of gold...
http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html

Q. In your book, The ABCs of Gold Investing: Protecting Your Wealth through Private Gold Ownership you start the chapter by saying "Who you do business with is one of the most important aspects of gold investing." Why is that?

MK. Most, if not all, of the progress an investor makes towards realizing his or her goals with respect to gold ownership hinges on that relationship. Unbiased, objective advice from one's gold advisor is a key element. So are market information and education. Pricing, product selection, fulfillment and on-going support also rely on that relationship. Above all, it is extremely important for gold buyers to match their objectives with the type of gold they buy. Positive results in all of those areas depend upon a strong relationship with a gold firm. That is why it is important to spend some time finding the right one.

Q. Can you briefly describe some of the pitfalls a beginner might be on the look out for?

MK. The biggest trap investors fall into is buying a gold investment that bears little or no relationship to his or her objectives. Take safe haven investors for example. That group makes up 90% of our clientele, and probably a good 75% of the current physical gold market. Most often the safe-haven investors simply want to add gold coins to their portfolio mix, but by the time they finish talking with a typical national firm, they might end up in a leveraged gold position, exotic rare coins, or being diverted into silver or platinum. Others drift into gold stocks or gold futures which in reality are proxies for real gold ownership and could actually act opposite the intent of the investor. There's nothing wrong with any of these non-physical investments per se, it's just that none of them is really a safe-haven. The investor should bear this in mind. The question investors must always answer for themselves is "How will this investment serve me should the economy or financial markets suffer a major disruption?"

Cometose
(09/12/2004; 13:39:49 MDT - Msg ID: 124372)
The Fed is out of POWDER AND OPTIONS ...........imho
Such was not the case in 1987...during the last bond crisis


If Jim Sinclair was accurate on the Japanese dropping their dollar supporting activities in July ........

Given last weeks FED GOV YELLEN COMMENT on the Dollar dropping in order to correct deficits.....

and the GHOST BOND AUCTION .........

WOuld it not be logical to anticipate ..also then perhaps
a decoupling in DOllar GOLD relationship ..........

that would introduce the second phase of this GOLD BULL MARKET............to da moon Alice .....

It could be nearer than we think............

Don't be caught with your pants down.........or like the Emperor who has no clothes....

GOld, get you some !!!!
Belgian
(09/12/2004; 14:18:06 MDT - Msg ID: 124373)
Re :
@ Sundeck (msg#124270): The Chinese are "mercantilists" !
They consider Gold as the "consolidation" of their "wealth" ! As simple as that, Sir. Now, the chinese government is "encouraging" this ages' old, specific characteristic. As westerners, we can only speculate about the multiple "motives" for this public, Gold Wealth Property, encouragement.
As mercantilists, the chinese are very aware of the "relativity" of all things commercial and associate. In sharp contrast with the Golden Wealth Property, that is forever, in a capitalistic world.

Trade, success and pseudo-stores of wealth (currencies), other than Gold, are temporary fenomena. GOLD IS FOR EVER.

@ GAB : I am not (never was) a desperate believer in the euro "currency" in its naked form ! It is The development of the architected euro-concept...CONCEPT (!!!)...that is the crow-bar to FREEGOLD !!! And I realize that this idea (evolving project) isn't filtering in,...yet !

@ TIH : For the 1001 th time...THE EURO IS NEVER TO BE *** BACKED *** BY GOLD ...Forget this very relative and fickle notion of "backing" in the future relationship between the euro-numeraire and Physical Gold !
The "evolving" (mutating) SGP is "a" backing for the euro and will finally result in the euro-Gold concept. The fiduciaire auro-numeraire in parallel (association) with the
euro FreeGold market with the numeraire evolving through strength and weakness cycles in Gold.

Oil still settles in dollar, because the dollar is strong in Gold...and consequently,...the strong dollar buys a lot of Gold. Once this dollar-Gold system is abandoned...oil will settle in euro, because the euro crow-bar has set the Gold-Valuation FREE !!! The depleting black Gold will be replaced by an ever increasing value of the yellow Gold...priced in the associated euro liberator ! Ask the (oil consuming) Chinese government...:-)

Ainsi soit-il. Amen
American Expression
(09/12/2004; 15:32:21 MDT - Msg ID: 124374)
Mystery explosions rock North Korea
http://joongangdaily.joins.com/200409/12/200409122230437009900090209021.html
Two massive explosions took place in North Korea's border area with China on Wednesday night and early Thursday morning, Roh administration officials revealed yesterday, confirming earlier reports from Beijing. Thursday was the anniversary of the 1948 foundation of North Korea's communist regime.

The first official confirmation of the incidents came from Chung Dong-young, head of the National Security Council, during a media briefing yesterday morning. "I was informed about the explosions and am in the process of confirming the incidents," Mr. Chung said, but dismissed the possibility that Pyeongyang had undertaken a nuclear test. Another Roh administration official added. "It would be absurd for the North to conduct a nuclear test near the Chinese border."

"Around 11 p.m. on Wednesday and 1 a.m. on Thursday, mysterious explosions took place in the area of Kimhyeongjik county in Yanggang province near the Chinese border," said a senior Seoul official. "At this point, we are trying to find out the exact cause and damage."

Reuters newswire quoted U.S. State Department officials as saying that the blasts were unlikely to be nuclear weapons tests.




Blast, Mushroom Cloud Reported in N. Korea

SEOUL, South Korea - A large explosion occurred in the northern part of North Korea (news - web sites), sending a huge mushroom cloud into the air on an important anniversary of the communist regime, a South Korean news agency reported Sunday.

The Yonhap news agency, citing an unidentified source in Beijing, said the explosion happened Thursday in Yanggang province near the border with China. The explosion in Kim Hyong Jik county blasted a crater big enough to be noticed by a satellite, the source said.

"We understand that a mushroom-shaped cloud about 3.5 to 4 kilometers (about 2-2 1/2 miles) in diameter was monitored during the explosion," Yonhap quoted an unidentified diplomatic source in Seoul as saying.

END

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20040912/ap_on_re_as/nkorea_explosion&cid=516&ncid=716
Great Albino Bat
(09/12/2004; 18:13:22 MDT - Msg ID: 124376)
What is Joevialls.com going to say about the explosions?

I can IMAGINE something like this:

"the CRATER is the giveaway to the origin of the explosion; it indicates a missile with a nuclear warhead, and it took out xxxxxxx installations of the N.Korean r�gime."

That's JUST A GUESS.

The GAB
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(09/12/2004; 18:30:32 MDT - Msg ID: 124377)
Hard assets, easy access!
http://www.usagold.com/buy-gold-coins.html

gold -- a global calling card
Great Albino Bat
(09/12/2004; 18:58:25 MDT - Msg ID: 124378)
Belgian: getting back to the subject of GOLD.....

Dear Sir Belgian:

I much appreciate your thoughts on Dollar-Gold-Euro-Oil and their interrelationship, and I value them.

As I have said before, none of us living is likely to see the day when promissory notes (money) are redeemable at sight, to the bearer, for predetermined quantities of gold.

Gold will, sooner or later, be valued in a relatively free market against the promissory notes (money), at floating quotations. (The price of gold will cease to be contained absolutely - perhaps it will be managed marginally at most - and will float against the euro) The containment by the Fed is bound to come to an end, that is certain.

This far I will go with you.

Where I lose your train of thought, is where your thinking goes off into (what appears to me to be) intuitive thinking, where you take some leaps to come to conclusions that I cannot judge - cannot tell whether they are correct or not - because of the leap you take to arrive at those conclusions.

First, I have to doubt that theory, that the governments (or the rulers) of the oil producing countries have been receiving amounts of gold "under the table" to compensate for the low prices in dollars.

Gold, at least since the XIXth Century, has not been used to BUY things. It is too scarce and hard to come by, for it to be used thus. It was used merely to compensate for remainders of trade balances not settled, momentarily, by trade between nations. Very little gold moved at all, in those times, because nations were so careful to maintain their trade numbers - export vis a vis imports - in balance, so as NOT to lose gold.

For the same reason, gold will never be exchanged for oil. An asset of permanent value (gold) cannot be expended for an asset that is consumed (oil).

If euroland allows gold to go up in terms of euros (the "freemarket in gold" in euros) then all that means is that the price of oil, if purchased with euros, will at most be measured in terms of more euros, as much as the trade will bear.

Euroland will in effect be saying to Oil-land: "We will trade your oil, for our products, or whatever products you can buy on world markets with our euros; or, you can hold our euros in whatever amounts you wish, and earn interest on them in the meantime; or, if you want gold, you can buy it on the free market. But do not expect us to trade your oil, for our gold. That we will not do. If you do not accept these terms, then that means WAR." (A refusal to trade goods, always means war.)

It is evident to me, that the expulsion of gold (and silver) from the monetary scene - their use as money - coincides with the rise of "democracy" and socialistic policies of governments to please their electorates. Electorates must be bought - as they were in ancient Rome - and gold and silver are too scarce for that purpose. Paper was substituted for the metals, and the metal coins, denominated in paper units, soon became worth more than their gold and silver content. So, gold and silver were effectively demonetized. The coins could no longer be used as money.

The only possible connection between the "euroland freemarket in gold concept" and stability for the euro, means that the euroland nations would of their own freewill, reject socialistic policies when the price of gold showed a clearly rising trend in price, in terms of euros. The rising price of gold would show the damage being done by a socialistically produced euro. Would this sign be enough to rein in socialistic policies (government spending and credit expansion)? I doubt it very much.

Socialism is here to stay. It is a (secular) religion, with its own myths, and will not be erradicated within any foreseeable time. Religions last a long time!

Sir Belgian, I am not criticising your thinking! I am just asking for more, step-by-step analysis in lieu of intuitive leaps, so that the slower-thinking of us can fully understand your thesis, which may be quite correct.

The GAB
Goldendome
(09/13/2004; 00:13:55 MDT - Msg ID: 124379)
North Koreans just earth moving....so they say.
North Korean Minister to the British Foreign Minister:

Oh, THAT explosion! Oh, don't worry about it; it was just the controlled explosion and destruction of a mountain for a hydro electric project...

Yeah right. Well, as eccentric as the North Koreans are, would they be the only engineers in the world to blow up a mountain in one blast? Most times, it takes a continual series of blasts over an extended period of time, to do the excavation as desired. We should here soon enough if the radiation is detected.
Belgian
(09/13/2004; 02:27:37 MDT - Msg ID: 124380)
@ GAB
- Are your coca cola-shares redeemable for the drink ?
- Can the Gold-management be a "little" pregnant ?
- Would YOU, the GAB, be so altruistic as to give away YOUR precious, almighty Black Gold,...for Nothing ...two times nothing ?
- Isn't the "scarcity" of Physical Gold its ultimate power ?
- What is the difference between euro-socialism and dollar-printing-presses ?

The Gold-matters are explained, "step by step", here at CPM's archives...history and projections for the future.
Try, not to amalgamete (mixe up) all the elements...

In your post...there is one BIG fundamental question of the utmost importance : OIL FOR GOLD !!!
You want plenty of comprehensive evidence for this...although you recognize and confirm the utmost "importance" of both, oil AND Gold.

There are OIL and GOLD-wars, aren't there, Sir ...regardless of the increasing socialism in whatever form !?

Go back to the "oil-gold" turbulent seventies...where much more was said publicly about oil and gold. During that period, many silent, long term plans, were architected.

Look at the Chinese continent and its "long term" policies. A communist dictatorship, in the process of holding the world in one single hand !? What a contradiction for us, market-economy, adepts. A "global" economic war, without firing one shot. Are the Chinese smart and was (is) oil... a naive dummie !?
Did this Chinese growing economic supremacy came out of nothing all of a sudden ? No, it didn't. Will oil be seen as associated with euro-Gold, all of a sudden...out of the blue ? No, it will not be a surprise...because we already strongly suspect, today... that it has been planned.
Isn't it evident that the very basic of all this, namely oil AND Gold-VALUE...MUST remain hidden and masked at any cost !?

That's WHY Gold (its derivatives) MUST remain percepted as a pure "dollar-affair" !!! Gold (and oil) are OK (manageable)...as long as both *stick* to the dollar.
Can you imagine the turbulent, all embracing consequences of public knowledge that the past decades...cheap oil was (is) associated with "directed" (!!!) Gold-Flows !!!-???
Almost unthinkable...
Is Arabian oil going to show us their Gold stashes as a touristic attraction !?
But in these early FreeGold days...the Chinese government publicly announced its increasing goldreserves and LBMA, on a visit in Shangai, confirms the Gold uptake trend of 1,2 Billion people. This is Gold-politically correct in contrast with the almighty oil-power that suggests oil-Gold barter, directly or indirectly (via euro). WHY always force (dollar)Gold to be publicly associated with India and China and never pull one's attention to the relationship of OIL AND GOLD !!!

There is already too much DOLLAR DEBT to associate the dollar with universal precious things like GOLD AND OIL.
That's WHY the dollar will continue to do all irrational things as to keep the dollar (the debtberg) "associated" with oil and gold. Any,...ANY alternative for the dollar-numeraire will do. As long as it is associated *** POSITIVELY *** with the GOLD VALUE !!!

A FreeGold "Market", needs ANOTHER numeraire as to express its Value. Dollars for Gold or Gold for dollars is impossible because of the "existing" (not future) cosmic debtberg. Debt growing at 15% (and increasing) versus a GDP growth of 3% (and declining). The euro "HAS" a growth and stability pact, as imperfect as you percept it...but there is one. The dollar will soon have nothing left to pull its strength out of growth and/or stability. DEBT IS NOTHING !
And on top of this,...*** dollar-debt *** is blocking the entire world to have its GOLD WEALTH CONSOLIDATION to be VALUED as it should be. You MUST stay in the dollar debt...you MAY go into Gold (Physical)...but...the dollar says what your Gold is worth, pricewise. The euro will allow GOLD to be "marked to the market"...a FREE GOLDMARKET.

The bottomline is rather simple, GAB. Everybody, without exception, wishes to "consolidate", what he/she considers as its/her WEALTH. In an expanding ocean of DEBT one has breaking points. Today, everything is done as to not let this debt be "EXPERIENCED" ! Those who accumulated or are already in the possession of VALUE (oil-Gold-manufacturing power) are the ones who are going to dictate WHEN the debt-experience (hyperinfladada) will strike. We know we will have to go through ...TO EXPERIENCE...the consequences of the umpthieth (fiat)Debt experiment. Main difference lies in the different precautions/actions that are been taken by all those (dollar-euro blocks) who will have to go through it.

Think about the euro (concept) as the crow-bar that brings us faster to experiencing what the agreed dollar-debt ravage will be like. It is "because" there is a dollar-alternative that we will have the courage (?) to move through the transition.

The optimists believe that "debt-management" is for ever.
Realists know that Gold's function must be brought back to...in the hands of... the people...all of them. Americans had their Gold physically stolen for 40 years...afterwards, it was the price of gold (expression of Gold's Value) that is been stolen. There is nothing (very little) left to steal anymore. The main giants never let their wealth be stolen. Soon they want to see their wealth being Valued properly. All, included socialists, communists...will profit from it.

I say...print as much debt-confetti as you wish...in a FREEGOLD MARKET. People will choice the currency that is worth the most in Gold and use this currency for trade settlement. Amen
Aristotle
(09/13/2004; 03:50:32 MDT - Msg ID: 124381)
GAB, as Lee Corso would say, "Not so fast, my friend!"
You provided a few towering mature observations in your post to Belgian, but also offered up a few green seedlings that shall surely wilt under the brighter rays of daylight's scrutiny.

Some of your doubts would resolve themselves if you'd just be a bit more consistent in connecting one thread of your thoughts against another. It's like you're seeing the parts and not recognizing them as belonging to the same whole.

Let's take a reasonable observation from your msg#: 124378:


"Gold, at least since the XIXth Century, has not been used to BUY things. It is too scarce and hard to come by, for it to be used thus. It was used merely to compensate for remainders of trade balances not settled, momentarily, by trade between nations. Very little gold moved at all, in those times, because nations were so careful to maintain their trade numbers - export vis a vis imports - in balance, so as NOT to lose gold."


Refined and properly filtered, all of that condenses down to the key refrain of our forum's small core group of true Gold Advocates -- that refrain being to the effect, "Gold is chosen/used as the Universal Asset to Conclude ones Wealth."

In other words, after all monthly incomes are received and all monthly obligations are paid, it is from any resulting cashflow surplus (balance of trade surplus) that profits are ultimately measured in Gold -- that Gold effectively Concludes the monthly Wealth and stamps that chapter of ones books of economic activity "Paid in Full." Economically active entities (individuals, corporations, nations) must do this to the full extent of their understanding lest they be merely letting the house chips ride until the bitter day of disappointment when the house files its own Chapter -- for bankruptcy protection.

I hope you agree with that condensation of your thought, from which point we can move forward.

Unfortunately, your very next thought is a bit of a contradiction:


"For the same reason, gold will never be exchanged for oil. An asset of permanent value (gold) cannot be expended for an asset that is consumed (oil)."


Let's stand that on its head. Or turn it around, or whatever. To say 'Gold will never be exchanged for oil (because permanent value assets cannot flow for consumed products) is to say two things. First, it contradicts that any Gold can move in any market to balance any conclusion of trade surpluses -- unless, according to your premise, it can be demonstrated that the surplus is itself ALSO of permanent value??????? What law of economics is that??

Second, to say 'Gold will never be exchanged for oil (because permanent value (Gold) cannot be spent for consumed products (oil))' is to suggest that owners of valuable oil in the ground (hey, it's *permanent* while it *stays* in the ground, yes??) cannot possibly dictate any terms of mutually agreeable trade with other parties that include a component of Gold. Man,,,,,,, if oil owners can't have an invisible hand in setting terms of (non-violent) trade which they deem favorable to themselves, then I surely don't know who in this wide world can.

A la, "Why should we give up the value of oil under our feet unless we are compensated with something more CONCLUSIVE than the ever-riding IOU stacks of gaming house chips (paper dollars)?"

When you say you doubt that oil producers have been receiving Gold "under the table" as compensation for low prices in dollar terms, I think maybe you're trying too hard to read into it some deep cover cloak-and-dagger hijinks. Really, all you gotta do is let your mind do a little walking over the meaning of the effective outcome of a suite of commodity/derivative trades that I tried especially hard once (in a five-part series) long ago to spell out in ultra-layman's terms. What ELSE would you think the bulk of the LBMA's outsized Gold-clearing numbers are representing?

I think that's what ANOTHER was referring to in saying the Gold market was already cornered... and in letting those specialized IOUs ride until that particular table collapses under its weight of paper-Gold chips, bringing the house down with it, the oil-field owners have the clout to be more surely made whole over time (things like Switzerland and "Washington Agreement" reallocations) first and foremost over any of the other merely speculative paper-Gold-IOU holders.

There's no rush like a Gold rush, and a full settlement panic of that sort is to avoided at the risk of the commercial banking system. I'd say the initial phases of the workout are going smoother than your typical government endeavor, wouldn't you? It's especially nice when it unfolds like this whereby us little guys can ride the giants' coattails and, without any clout of our own, pick up as many crumbs as our pockets and understanding will allow.

You know, I started out with the intention of scrutinizing the seedling notion where you suggested: "Paper was substituted for the metals, and the metal coins, denominated in paper units, soon became worth more than their gold and silver content. So, gold and silver were effectively demonetized. The coins could no longer be used as money."

But, in light of the hour of the day, I'll leave that for another time or another, fresher mind than my own has become.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle
Topaz
(09/13/2004; 05:11:00 MDT - Msg ID: 124382)
a Nugget plucked from a VERY rich vein.
"There is already too much DOLLAR DEBT to associate the dollar with universal precious things like GOLD AND OIL."

Well stated Belgian ... bravo!
Ned
(09/13/2004; 05:46:41 MDT - Msg ID: 124383)
GAB........(ARI, Belgium.........Oil for Gold)
Hello GAB! Isn't this fun!

I have gone through this oil for gold concept top-down, bottom-up, inside out, up-side-down and after 6 years I can firmly and honestly say I don't get it. At first I felt I was a dummy, a little embarrassed......bewildered. After years of the cryptic messages, which NEVER say this is how it is done, I have given up. Frankly, it's a lot easier on the nerves.

I am a 'physical gold advocate'. What does that mean to me? Well, I buy gold and silver coin and bullion. I buy a little platinum. I've even bought some silver dinnerware and some trickets, adornments for the wife, let's call it gold & silver miscellania. Why do I do this? In the simplest of terms, the metal(s) are undervalued. Gold, at an average of $400 over the last 22 years, SHOULD not be $400 today. Secondly, with the geo-poltical mess all over the world, gold will begin to advance. Third, the monetary/financial climate, particularly in the U.S. is alarming. It has the POTENTIAL to implode.

So I look at this gold thingy from top down. Gold has to be, IMHO, worth zillions one day because things are going to get bad, very bad. Scarcity of oil and terrorism (are they really one of the same?) is going to get ugly. If this 'peak oil' business is upon us now it only accelerates TEOTWAWKI. If a wicketly economic solution is invented/discovered for oil replacement the world may be saved but given thta the chances are ultra -slim how does this world move forward? The boys in Washington are getting desparate. They are pulling stunts which get more and more difficult to explain/imagine. Explaining the 'one-world' concept and the 'we must share' vision to the neo-cons would be like explaining the virtues of going to school to my teenage daughter. These peoples vision of 'good to the last drop' is shooting everyone in the way to burn the last drop. Nasty when you think about it. Save the planet, Kyoto, recycle, conserve.... yeah right?

So the answer, looking at the endpoint is golden. How does that happen? What are the mechanisms? I haven't the foggiest. I almost don't think it's relevent.

Here's the one and only line that I have ever understood from Belgium, "Yellow gold must replace Black Gold".

Ya see, when TSHTF (not if), and all the oil is suddenly gone, what do you want in your hand my friend, dollars, euros............gold?

Now isn't that the be all, end all!

Belgian
(09/13/2004; 09:01:27 MDT - Msg ID: 124384)
@ Ned
Trying to decode the oil-Gold cryptics :

You certainly heard the stories of the first Arabian oil-concessions being bought by westerners for a certain amount of Gold coins...about the (real) Gold treasury of the sultan of (oil rich) Brunei...etc.

This oil-Gold-affair, never stopped Ned ! This went on...expanded enormously, up until today... and shall go on for ever. Go to Dubai or to some other smaller "Gold-Markets" in the Middle East. All these folks are *** TRADING *** Gold...Gold wealth, made more attractive (functional) under its jewelry form. Never take Gold away from these markets...or the oil-taps are turned counter clockwise.

Hey...ho, aren't the Chinese going to do the same thing...and trade...TRADE Gold on a much bigger scale than Arabian oil has/is been doing for centuries !?

Arabs and Asians prefer to have "their" Gold being stashed away (and traded) in "private" hands, rather than in visible public vaults (concentrated holdings). Disperse the precious ...and make it less visible !!! Is handy for manipulating official statistics.

The consolidation of oil-manufacturing wealth through the dispersion of cheap Gold to the people by the means of PHYSICAL MARKETS !!!

Oil in the ground (Arabia), contracts Gold in the ground (hedging goldmines) through intermediaires. Chinese manufacturing profits are channeled to Physical Gold through the liberalisation... AND...through the re-distribution of official (CB)Gold. The Gold dinar is also an indication that * PHYSICAL * Gold-Trade is to be increasingly encouraged.

In the seventies, the media often reported that new Gold arrived at... or was shipped from Zurich (Switzerland). This to give an explanation for the POG fluctuations of that period. The media never specified the different identies of the buyers or sellers of the Physical.

We are running out of sufficiant available Physical Gold to satisfy the increased Gold-trading in the ME + Asia. Gold is increasingly running the risk of getting revalued (pricewise) through the demand factor and is therefore disturbing the official manipulative goldprice interventions as to satisfy those who have been providing us with cheap oil...cheap products.

The entire Australian goldproduction goes to the ME and Asia. How much (very little) private Gold do the Aussie citizens hold !!!??? Are there Gold bazars in Sydny or Perth !?

How much tradable Gold is moving, changing hands, under the radars !?

There are not only the masses of small to medium Gold hoarders, Ned. There are also huge Gold Giants in this Physical Goldmarket. These Giants are not only Arabian prinses but also Chinese (Asian) big bosses.
Private Gold accumulation is in conflict with the official Gold management. Both remain un-transparent (cryptic) for the general public. The highest ranking CB (FED/ECB/BIS) officials will surely know their Giant private and official, Goldclients. They do interact on gold trade intelligence. The WAG and the ECB's mtm signals + the POG-behavior are evidence of their mutual understanding. That is the "real" power of the scarce Universal Gold Wealth.

Search the net for Gold's moves during the WWarII. Or the South African gold for oil trades during the embargo (80-ties).

It is still Saudi Arabia (the one and only swing-producer)that with its 10% of daily oilproduction and the world's biggest cheap reserves, that is the privileged Gold-receiver. The dollar wishes to neutralise Arabia's oilpower as elegant as possible. There is NOT ENOUGH GOLD anymore at today's prices to satisfy...to compensate for the ongoing delivery of CHEAP oil. Not enough Physical Gold is reaching Arab bazars for daily trading at low (absurd) prices. Their is an increase in smuggled Gold from Africa and Indonesia.

Ask yourself, WHY Euroland isn't selling bullion (coins) to its citizens at the same regular pace it happened before !?
Answer : The scarcely available Gold has to serve higher purposes. Why is goldmining officially encouraged in Russia and China !? There is not enough Gold at these ridicule...relative steady prices, to distribute to the masses and Giants together. The goldprice is sticked/glued very, very close to the global average of production costs as to force the operating mines to produce at full steam in order to stay alive and get as much Gold aboveground as possible.

OIL is of INTERNATIONAL importance and you will never find evidence of the gold-clausules within the oil-contracts.
Very often, the most important element of a trade agreement is NOT stipulated in the contract !!!

And then comes the euro...shouting...hey , wait a minute...w're running out of GOLD !!! Time to set the goldprice FREE and keep cheap oil flowing abundantly again...with PERMANENT REVALUEING GOLD(price). Let's *** TRADE *** the aboveground PHYSICAL and mark our reserves against the gold-marketprice ! Stop all those Gold-commitments for the sake of cheap oil...etc...etc.

Is it still as cryptic as before, Ned ?
Gandalf the White
(09/13/2004; 10:07:57 MDT - Msg ID: 124385)
WAY to GO, SPIKE !!!
http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/en/detail/_pages/charts/main_large.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1NICE Jump this morning !
<;-)
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(09/13/2004; 10:31:44 MDT - Msg ID: 124386)
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TownCrier
(09/13/2004; 12:09:53 MDT - Msg ID: 124387)
COMEX gold rebounds as crude rises on Ivan worries
http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh46465_2004-09-13_15-47-35_n13419491_newsmlNEW YORK, Sept 13 (Reuters) - COMEX gold slid Monday morning in the face of a rising dollar, but subsequently recovered those losses when crude oil futures rallied as Hurricane Ivan headed toward oil and natural gas fields in the Gulf of Mexico, gold traders said.

"The floor said they saw some new buying coming in. But looking at the markets, the one that is pushing is crude oil. And with the dollar not doing much at this point, though it is a little higher and is probably the reason why gold opened lower, I think the gold market has diverted its attention from the dollar to higher oil prices," said one gold dealer.

He added that inflationary implications of a surge in oil prices increases gold's attractiveness as an inflation hedge.

NYMEX crude oil futures jumped more than $1 just after the open on Monday amid fears that Hurricane Ivan, a rare Category 5 storm, may cause serious damage to oil and natgas fields in the Gulf of Mexico, crude traders said.

-----(from article at url)----

Storm warnings of all sorts always abound, but have no fear. Have gold.

R.
Druid
(09/13/2004; 12:22:09 MDT - Msg ID: 124388)
(No Subject)

Druid: A more important matter for a central banker then pillaging and looting the producing class under the auspices of "monetary" policy, is, retaining the "value" of that pillaging. I guess like everything else in this chaotic world, some bankers are more equal then others.

Those bankers who have a clue aren't just going to be sitting around watching the fruits of their pillaging go belly up. No sir, as sure as the sun rises in the east and sets in the west, a central banker will do what comes so naturally for him to do when confronted with being on the wrongs side of a trade, change the rules of the game in their favor. They will be able to transfer the fruits (value) of their pillaging to many other assets, least of which, will be that world class wealth holding of the ages, gold.

Get ahead of the pack and get yours before the bidding wars begin in earnest.
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(09/13/2004; 12:30:46 MDT - Msg ID: 124389)
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Federal_Reserves
(09/13/2004; 12:50:04 MDT - Msg ID: 124390)
Sharecroppers in the New Economy
In 2001, the policy makers turned their back on the fiscally conservative measures installed during the mid 1990's. We had a trade surplus in the early 1990's, and in the mid 1990's we were on the way to budget surpluses with a healed social security system. Today its all lost, and given that holding personal gold reserves make a hell of lot of sense.

In 2002/2003/2004, we have seen a great reversal in the federal deficits, turning back negative, then into stupendous levels, then monstrous. At the same time, the trade deficits, on the back of an overvalued dollar, and an disintegrating manufacturing sector, as left us with trade deficits are sublimely ridiculous, with no seeming way to reverse it.

There is a cancer growing on the country. Folks, we need to get a handle on these things.

Our economic freedom is a function of fiscal responsibility and sound money combined with sensible trade policies that are quid pro quo. We are ignoring the wisdom of the ages.

Today, over � of the debt is owned by foreigners. We are becoming sharecroppers in this untested, risky, service economy.
USAGOLD Daily Market Report
(09/13/2004; 12:56:51 MDT - Msg ID: 124391)
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If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.

---closing market excerpts---

Gold futures closed higher Monday after reaching a more than one-week high above $406, with traders keeping an eye on moves in the U.S. dollar ahead of key economic data due later this week.

Gold for December delivery rose $2.20 to close at $406 an ounce...

"With a host of data due for release over the week including August retail sales, second-quarter current account balance ... and preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment, gold looks set for another volatile week, with the dollar leading the way," said James Moore, an analyst at TheBullionDesk.com in London...

"The short-term outlook doesn't look good for the precious metals as we have no news of any significance scheduled for release Monday, as well as an overbought condition in the euro," said Dale Doelling, chief market commentator at Bullion.com in Chicago. The downward bias in the euro will likely cap the price of gold for now, Doelling said. However, he said, "if the euro can hold above $1.22 and, at the same time, work off some of its overbought condition in the process, we may still see a breakout to the upside, which would move gold to around $425 initially."...

ALSO...

HEADLINE: Italy central bank says no plans to sell gold reserves

ROME, Sept 13 (Reuters) - The Bank of Italy said in a statement on Monday it had no plans to sell its gold reserves. "The Bank of Italy ... has not spoken of this matter, nor does any plan of this type exist," it said in a statement.

...The Dutch central bank on Saturday said it would sell 100 tonnes of gold under the new 5-year gold sale agreement that takes effect in September plus sell 50 tonnes left from a previous agreement.

-----(see url for access to full news, 24-hr global newswire)----
Smeagol
(09/13/2004; 17:06:51 MDT - Msg ID: 124392)

we thanks you, Ssirs Belgian, Aristotle, GAB, for cassting yet more light on the Gold-Oil puzzle-pieces... it was the up-date we were sseeking...

... we knows the price of the Yellow and White Precious are held lower because of paper-trading volume (thiss is probably true of a great many more mundane things, too)... are not Platinum-Precious (and sisster-metals Palladium and Rhodium) prices affected in the ssame way? How 'overssold' are they, paper-wise, we wonders... and if sso, where would they be headed if they too were to trade on a purely physical basis, as may happen soon with our two favorites? Because, perhaps when the paper gold/silver house of cards collapses, the exposure may take down the others?

S.
otish mountain
(09/13/2004; 17:33:20 MDT - Msg ID: 124393)
Inflation Pressures
A letter from one of my suppliers today....

Dear Valued Customer:
As a result of strong global demand for steel and other raw materials, all manufacturers are being faced with dramatically increasing prices from suppliers. The ripple affect of this is finding its way into virtually every material and component required for the production of our products. We have, and will continue to make every effort to control or offset these escalating costs. However we have reached the point where a portion of these costs must be passed along to our customers in order for ...... to remain a viable manufacturer of high quality products and provide the level of sevice you expect.

Please be advised that we will be adding a surcharge to all orders placed after October 4th of 7.8% of net price.........
end of letter

After about 4 years in Nov 03 this company came out with a new price list on their products with an average increase of about 9% then in Feb. 04 warned of product shipping delays of up to 8 or 9 weeks, used to be 1 or 2 weeks, now this.
Aristotle
(09/13/2004; 18:25:07 MDT - Msg ID: 124394)
Smeagol's extrapolation
It might be stretching things a bit far to assume that the presence of an anti-derivative political will in the Gold sector would equate to similar implementation across-the-board. That argument, at its limit, would return us to a barter economy. Ain't gonna happen in any iteration of the world I've come to know. FreeGold is exactly enough fellowship to accompany a fiat numeraire on its appointed trek to Mt. Doom. Think of FreeGold as the best of Samwise and the best of Aragorn all rolled into one, to travel unstained and undaunted at Fiat Frodo's side as our poor little guy suffers all the wear and tear that society has heaped on his dutiful shoulders.

That's life. But it's good to be king.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle
Ned
(09/13/2004; 18:26:31 MDT - Msg ID: 124395)
Belgian
Apologies Sir for the reference to your homeland instead of yourself. I think that's the second time I have goofed in that regard. Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice.........


Before I begin here's a little quip from tonight's array of awesome observations, "....this chart is years of Reverse Head & Shoulders followed by classic Head & Shoulders....".

What in 'God's Green Earth' is that? A Reverse, Double-Gainer off the low board, no less!

Is it any wonder why I gave up TA for good old fashioned physical, in your hand, GOLD? I will look again at your post, perhaps many times. I wish to understand the oil for gold concept because I am sure it defines most of the fundamentals issues.

In the interim, look for Reverse Double Head & Shoulders breaking down from a Cup and Handle, Inverted Candlestick thingy.......................and..................

let's get REAL.........get GOLD!!!

Aristotle
(09/13/2004; 18:45:42 MDT - Msg ID: 124396)
Ned, give especially good consideration to this part of Belgian's message:


"Think about the euro (concept) as the crow-bar that brings us faster to experiencing what the agreed dollar-debt ravage will be like. It is "because" there is a dollar-alternative that we will have the courage (?) to move through the transition. [A political necessity/reality we didn't have during the first hiccup in 1971.]

"The optimists believe that "debt-management" is for ever.
Realists know that Gold's function must be brought back to...in the hands of... the people...all of them. Americans had their Gold physically stolen for 40 years...afterwards, it was the price of gold (expression of Gold's Value) that is been stolen. There is nothing (very little) left to steal anymore. The main giants never let their wealth be stolen. Soon they want to see their wealth being Valued properly."


Gold. Get you some cheaply before it becomes valued properly. --- Ari
American Expression
(09/13/2004; 20:08:36 MDT - Msg ID: 124397)
No mention of fiscal gap estimated as high as $72 trillion
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/chronicle/archive/2004/09/12/MNG2S8NOI21.DTL
Snip:

Astronomical federal debt, coming due as the Baby Boom generation collects Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security, is enormous enough to swamp the promises both candidates are making to voters, whether for tax cuts, health care, 40,000 more troops or anything else.

"Chilling" is the word U.S. Comptroller General David Walker uses to describe the budget outlook.

'Fiscal gap' in the trillions

But these figures, worrisome enough, are deceptive because they ignore future liabilities such as Social Security and Medicare payments to the Baby Boomers. An array of government and private analysts put the actual U.S. "fiscal gap," which means all future receipts minus all future obligations, at $40 trillion (Government Accountability Office) to $72 trillion (Social Security Board of Trustees).

These are not sums, but present-value figures, heavily discounted to show in today's dollars what it would cost to pay off the debt immediately. The International Monetary Fund estimates the gap at $47 trillion, the Brookings Institution at $60 trillion.

"To give you idea how big the problem is," said Laurence Kotlikoff, economics chairman at Boston University, who has written extensively on the subject, to close a $51 trillion fiscal gap, "you'd have to have an immediate and permanent 78 percent hike in the federal income tax."

-END SNIP-

"You have to choose [as a voter] between trusting to the natural stability of gold and the natural stability of the honesty and intelligence of the members of the Government. And, with due respect for these gentlemen, I advise you, as long as the Capitalist system lasts, to vote for gold." --George Bernard Shaw

"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value ---- zero." --Voltaire (1694-1778)

Lets see, the warning siren is wailing at you but you cannot make up your mind to buy some physical gold. You get what you deserve then, it's not like you have not been warned $72 trillion times! DYODD


Chris Powell
(09/13/2004; 20:21:31 MDT - Msg ID: 124398)
Italy's central bank says it has no plans to sell gold
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/2378Latest GATA dispatch.


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TownCrier
(09/13/2004; 21:54:13 MDT - Msg ID: 124399)
Chris Powell, GATA dispatch
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.htmlFrom:� GATAComm
Date:� Tue�Sep�14,�2004� 2:05 am
Subject:� Italian central bank says it doesn't plan any gold sales

We've not been able to locate an Internet
link for the English version of the Reuters
story below...
----------------

Chris,
I would humbly direct your attention to the USAGOLD Daily Market Report posting from this afternoon, September 13th. Beneath the section with today's market brief you will find my additional coverage of this story along with the English-version of the Reuters source hyperlinked. It was functioning this afternoon. I imagine it still is.

R.
VanRip
(09/13/2004; 22:06:59 MDT - Msg ID: 124400)
Gold for Oil/Four Shillings Gold Per Ton in 1933
http://reference.allrefer.com/country-guide-study/saudi-arabia/saudi-arabia57.htmlNot sure this was posted before. From a history of Aramco in Saudi Arabia. Interesting that the concession was renewed in 1939 for 60 years at substantially higher payments than the original.

(snippet)

The original concession called for an annual rental fee of 5,000 British pounds (�) in gold or its equivalent until oil was discovered; a loan of �50,000 in gold to the Saudi government; a royalty payment of four shillings gold per net ton of crude production after the discovery of oil; and the free supply to the government of specific quantities of products from the refinery Aramco was to build after oil was discovered. (In 1933 the British pound was worth about US$4.87; there were twenty shillings to the British pound.) The company received exclusive rights to explore for, produce, and export oil, free of all Saudi taxes and duties, from most of the eastern part of Saudi Arabia for sixty years. The terms granted by the government were liberal, reflecting the king's need for funds, his low estimate of future oil production, and his weak bargaining position.

The original concession agreement was modified many times. The first modification was made in 1939 after the discovery of oil in 1938. This change added to Aramco's concession area and extended the period to 1999 in return for payments substantially higher than those specified in the first agreement and for larger quantities of free gasoline and kerosene to be supplied by Aramco to the Saudi government.

(much more at the URL)
Chris Powell
(09/13/2004; 22:58:09 MDT - Msg ID: 124401)
Bank of Italy gold story
Thanks, TC, for the link to the Reuters story
on the BorsaItalia site, but I had a number
of secondary copies of the story and was
looking for the story in its original form
at Reuters itself and couldn't find it even
after a half-hour of searching. So I felt
pretty good when I tracked down Reuters'
Italian version. The Bank of Italy's own
Internet site had nothing posted about the
statement as of this evening Eastern time.

This story is pretty significant to the
gold business but locating it and any
elaboration on it remains a challenge.

Of course if the Bank of Italy had announced
that it was SELLING gold rather than sitting
on its stash, we quickly would have found a
long story on every news site on the Internet!
968
(09/14/2004; 00:55:12 MDT - Msg ID: 124402)
Dutch gold.
http://www.orf.at/index.html?url=http%3A//www.orf.at/ticker/158099.htmlThe Dutch Goverment plans to sell 150 tons of gold according to Dutch Central Bank Governor and BIS Governor Nout Wellink. The amount of gold that will be sold is discussed with the countries that have signed the second Washington Agreement.
Belgian
(09/14/2004; 01:48:55 MDT - Msg ID: 124403)
Italian Gold....
Isn't it fantastic that nobody can put this Italian "no gold sales"...No Gold offer... into any context !?

WHO is wishing (demanding) to "Buy" Gold !? And WHY is (are) this Gold-buying candidate(s) not making his (their) request(s) public ?

Is there any pressure to have more official goldsales (commitments)...and if so...where is it coming from ...the dollar with promesses ??? Has all the available aboveground Gold been tapped...exhausted ???

OR,...is it filtering in, that GOLD is coming back into a new International Monetary Order !? Euro-reserve or a "new" dollar ?

Today, one barril of oil equals more than 3 grams Gold and that is out of the 3 decades range of 1 to 3 gram/barril.
Trichet said that the $-�-POO is handicapping the chances for global economic recovery. Something "must" be done...change... here. A rising � exchange rate (against the dollar) to have cheaper oil in Euroland...or oil invoicing in euro...or a lower $-POO with a stable �-$ exch.rate ? Euroland needs this stable exch. rate now, because its (small) growth comes from the export to the dollar. But the world "cannot" keep on exporting (growing) against the DEBT DOLLAR for ever.
OPEC meeting tomorrow. Don't listen to their statements...watch how the $-�-POO reacts. Might indicate how decisive oil is on the numeraire that it receives.

There is no doubt about the dollar going into (bidding for) the euro. This trend is managed as to happen orderly. A fast rising $-POO is disturbing this $ > � shift. The $-POG must not devalue the dollar too fast as to promote a disorderly $ > � flight. Italy might not be cooperative in risking its Goldreserves as commitments to contain the $-goldprice ?
Maybe they can try to mobilize Libanon Gold, again...woehaha.

Bear in mind that Euroland's door still stands open for new member states...Albania-Turkey. More euro...Gold !
The growth in these new member states (and candidates) is much higher than in the epicenter of the continent. This also means an increasing need for oil...into the euro-zone...and makes a golden-euro for oil more likely. Not a matter of "if" but rather of "how fast" !? Also think about how beneficial this would be for Russia with its vast reserves of underground energy reserves !


My personal (amateuristic) conclusion on GOLD, remains the same : Continue to accumulate the physical and wait (anticipate) for the BIG REVALUATION. Gold will revaluate in ONE big explosion. The coming NEW GoldMarket will need tremendously less Physical Gold to satisfy (serve) all those who haven't anticipated with today's cheap Gold.
The "Western" masses will rush into Gold Property at MUCH higher prices.

Those who remember that very turbulent decade of 1970 > 1980...everything that was projected "then" about oil (and related)...and then saw how in the next decade 1980 > 1990, the facts were exactly saying the opposite of the dramatic projections...should realise that today, we are living through a similar turbulent decade that will bring unsuspected surprises. Timing (speculation-gambling) has now become a very low order priority.

968
(09/14/2004; 02:23:55 MDT - Msg ID: 124404)
@ Belgian
Goodmorning Belgian,

If the membership of Turkey to the EU would be pro-$>� switch and pro-gold, why is Bush putting pressure on the European Commission to make Turkey a new EU-member ?
Belgian
(09/14/2004; 02:29:48 MDT - Msg ID: 124405)
Dutch goldsales...
All these Euroland CB-Gold-Commitments are happening within this WAG-agreement. The media always refer to this agreement and never try to put this agreement in a wider context. WHAT IS THIS WAG !!!??? WHAT IS THIS EURO GOLD DOING !?

The above questions suffice more than enough to become extremely "positively" suspicious about Gold's new future !!!

The Gold re-distributions are happening whilst 85% of the masses (polls) already accepts the idea of a $-POO = $100 !!! What an amusing coincidence.

The BIS will "take care" of the Dutch Gold commitments.
Make sure you don't miss this Gold re-distribution opportunity, yourself.

The more,...the longer Asia (China) and Japan do accumulate the produced flood of dollars...the higher and deeper will their flight (their bidding) into the golden euro be. Do these dollar absorbers have already enough (redistributed) GOLD ...as to compensate for the coming dollar losses !?

It is "this" that is going on and explains WHY the whole WAG context is not to be made public.

Belgian
(09/14/2004; 03:15:01 MDT - Msg ID: 124406)
@968
Turkey borders Irak and is the euro-gate to the ME...oil ...pipelines...war...
The dollar knows its fate, but wishes to buy time as the euro had to buy his time.
Make no mistake,...Euroland is still being ridiculed by the dollar superpower. Bush's advisers (global planners) will continue to make suggestions for co-operations with "the willing". Euroland wishes increasingly to decide on its own for its own good...in sharp contrast with the long past period of mutual trans-atlantic ($-�) understanding.

Hey, 968...geopolitical games, Sir...paradoxes...enigmas...altering coalitions...etc.

Point is that the dollar-euro divorce must be a "serene" (!!!) one...pourvu que sa dure...
Euroland expands in concentric circles as to have it done, as gradually as possible ! A gigantic task, taking into consideration that at the same time, the $-�-divorce has to take place.

Realise how extremely important that the *GOLD FACTOR* is in this enormous transition. Realise how GOLD must remain on an as low profile as possible, for an undeterminable period .

Euro-IRs will rise 0.25% at yearend, because of priceinfla.
Topaz
(09/14/2004; 05:42:39 MDT - Msg ID: 124407)
alt $Gold again showing strength.
http://www.futuresource.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=GC&o=100/DX&a=D&z=610x300&d=LOW&b=LINE&st=Gold (the Price) is showing strength here as are $/Bonds/Oil ... stocks, EVERYTHING is STRONG! The ONE thing they MUST keep heading South imo is the Yields - with little more than domestic demand to rely upon, a PoG spike OR SM rout can only be days away.
misetich
(09/14/2004; 06:37:06 MDT - Msg ID: 124408)
US Current Account Reaches Record High
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/default.asp?refresh=on&doctype=-2≻id=0&siteid=mktwHeadline Snip

8:30am 09/14/04 U.S. AUG. RETAIL SALES DOWN 0.3% VS. -0.1% EXPECTED

8:30am 09/14/04 U.S. AUG. RETAIL SALES EX-AUTOS UP 0.2% AS EXPECTED

8:30am 09/14/04 U.S. JULY RETAIL SALES REVISED TO 0.8% GAIN FROM 0.7%

8:30am 09/14/04 U.S. Q2 CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT RECORD $166.2 BILLION

8:30am 09/14/04 U.S. Q2 CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT RECORD 5.7% OF GDP

8:30am 09/14/04 U.S. Q2 NET CAPITAL INFLOWS $146.8B VS. $138.6B

8:30am 09/14/04 U.S. AUG. GENERAL MERCHANDISE STORE SALES DOWN 0.4%

8:30am 09/14/04 U.S. RETAIL SALES UP 4.9% YEAR
-OVER-YEAR
**************
Misetich

More on the sustainability of the current account deficit later.

Retail sales plunge in August and continue soft in September, thus the "soft-patch" and "economy regaining traction" is a complete falsehood

IR are being increased as foreigners DEMAND higher risk premiums.

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
Chris Powell
(09/14/2004; 06:45:35 MDT - Msg ID: 124409)
Canada's National Post examines the Sprott Report.
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/2380Latest GATA dispatch.


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misetich
(09/14/2004; 07:01:13 MDT - Msg ID: 124410)
Is the US Current Account Deficit Sustainable?
http://www.stern.nyu.edu/globalmacro/Roubini-Setser-US-External-Imbalances.pdfSnip:

The US as a Net Debtor: The Sustainability of the US External Imbalances Nouriel Roubini Stern School of Business, NYU and Brad Setser Research Associate, Global Economic Governance Programme, University College, Oxford First Draft: September 2004

Executive Summary

trade deficit of around $420 billion in 2003 became a deficit of roughly $500 billion in 2004 and, if oil prices stay high, is on track � extrapolating from recent monthly trade data � to reach $550-560 billion for 2004. Imports are currently growing slightly faster than exports (in percentage terms).
..............
Yet even if imports grew at the same pace as exports, the large gap between the size of the U.S. import base and size of the U.S. export base would lead the U.S. trade balance to deteriorate. These trade deficits are large absolutely, large relative to U.S. GDP and large relative to the United States� small export base. They imply an even larger deficit in the broader measure of the United States� external balance, the current account.

1 These large current account deficits and the resulting increase in the net foreign liabilities of the U.S. has led to increasing concerns about the sustainability of these external imbalances. The U.S. trade deficit is the counterpart to low U.S. savings. U.S. consumption and other components of expenditure have been growing faster than U.S. income in the last decade. In mid-late 1990s, the current account deficits reflected a combination of low private savings and strong private investment, not large budget deficits. The financial resources needed to support a surge in private investment were imported from abroad, allowing both consumption and investment to rise.

Since 2001, however, the current account deficit has reflected a widening government deficit, not strong private investment. The U.S. now borrows from abroad to allow the government to run a large fiscal deficit without crowding out private investment, even as growing consumption (and necessarily, very low private savings) reduce the United States� ability to finance the fiscal deficit and private investment domestically. No matter what their cause, large ongoing deficits have to be financed by borrowing from abroad (or by foreign direct investment or net foreign purchases of U.S. stocks). Sustained deficits have made the United States a major net debtor. The broadest measure of the amount the United States owes the rest of the world � the net international investment position or NIIP � has gone from negative $360 billion in 1997 to negative $2.65 trillion in 2003. At the end of 2004, we estimate the net international position will be negative $3.25 trillion. Relative to GDP, net debt rose from 5% of GDP in 1997 to 24% of GDP at the end of 2003 and to an expected 28% of GDP by the end of 2004. Trends are no more encouraging when U.S. external debt is assessed in relation to U.S. export revenues. Exports as a share of GDP dipped a bit during the Asian crisis but then recovered and stood at 11% of GDP in 2001. But exports then slipped dramatically between 2001 and 2003, falling to a low of 9.5% of GDP in 2003 before starting to recover in 2004. Rising external debt and falling exports is never a good combination.

1 The current account is the sum of the trade balance, the balance on labor income, the balance on international investment income and unilateral transfers (foreign aid and remittances).
..........
2 At an estimated 280% of exports at the end of 2004 , U.S. debt to export ratio is in shooting range of troubled Latin economies like Brazil and Argentina.2 A large, and rapidly growing, stock of external debt � the legacy of our past current account deficits - has not, to date, been much of a burden on the U.S. economy. The U.S. had had no problem adding to its external debt stock to finance ongoing current account deficits. Interest payments on existing external debt have not been a burden on the U.S. economy. The United States has lots of external assets as well as lots of external liabilities. Since U.S. assets have had so far a higher rate of return than U.S. liabilities, the U.S. earned more on its assets than it paid on its liabilities in 2003. This relatively positive state of affairs, however, is likely to change. The limited cost of the existing U.S. debt reflects the unusually low U.S. interest rates, and the willingness of external investors to continue to finance large U.S. current account deficits at these low rates. As debt stocks rise and interest rates return to more normal levels, the need to make net payments on the existing debt stock will start to exert a small, but still noticeable drag on the economy. The fall in interest rates reduced interest payments on existing US external debt by roughly $130 billion between in 2000 and 2004.
..............
3 The rapid deterioration of US net external debt position implied by large trade and current account deficits cannot continue indefinitely. At some point, the interest rate that the U.S. needs to pay to attract the external financing it needs to run ongoing deficits will rise, slowing the U.S. economy and improving the trade balance even as higher interest rates increase the amount the U.S. must pay to its existing creditors. The U.S. will increasingly have to learn to live with the vulnerabilities associated with being a major net debtor -- vulnerabilities that are attenuated by the dollar's continued position as a reserve currency, but not entirely eliminated. Large current deficits in the U.S. have to be offset by current account surpluses elsewhere, and rising U.S. debt implies that foreigners are increasingly their holdings of financial claims on the U.S.. Both Europe and East Asia (taken as a region) run substantial current account surpluses vis-�-vis the U.S.. However, the major European currencies float freely against the dollar while most Asian currencies do not. China, Malaysia, Hong Kong explicitly peg their currencies to the dollar, and other countries often intervene heavily to prevent their currencies from appreciating against the dollar (and the Chinese renminbi). Recent data leaves little doubt that the reserve accumulation of Asian central banks is financing a growing share of the United States� current account
................
The U.S. current account deficit, in turn, provides an enormous stimulus to East Asian economies.4 So far, the U.S. has been able to avoid most of the standard costs associated with being a major debtor by passing all financial risks off to its creditors � a most unusual outcome. But that means that the United States� creditors, in particular East Asian central banks, are taking on the risk. This system � a system that Dooley, Folkerts-Landau and Garber (2003, 2004 a, b) have labeled Bretton Woods Two -- has provided the U.S. with the financing it needed in 2002, 2003 and 2004 to run large current account deficits. But the tensions created by this system are large, large enough to crack the system in the next three to four years.
.................
� Right now, the US has to mortgage one year's worth of export revenues every two years to finance its trade deficit. That is not a sustainable pace. It is hard to run a current account deficit of more than 5% of GDP off a roughly 10% of GDP export base. U.S. external debt is no longer small in relation to United States� small export sector. � Barring a U.S. recession, the U.S. current account deficit is likely to expand, not contract. The dollar's recent depreciation against the euro has not been matched by a comparable depreciation against many other U.S. trade partners. The real dollar remains at its 1990-2004 average, a level that is probably consistent with continued, albeit more modest, increase in the trade deficit. As favorable shocks to income payments from the recent fall in US interest rates dissipate, net income payments will turn negative, adding to the current account deficit. The likely outcome, absent any major policy changes: current account deficits of more than 7% of GDP by 2008. � This deficit is not being financed by foreign direct investment the US, nor is it significantly financed by foreign purchases of U.S. stocks. Outward foreign direct investment has substantially exceeded inward foreign direct investment over the past few years, so the U.S. needs to finance outward foreign direct investment of $100-$150 billion as well as a current account deficit of at least $550 billion. The annual borrowing need of the United States is $700 billion or more. Unless trends change that will only grow. � The "resource gap", i.e. the gap between the U.S. trade balance and the trade balance required to stop the increase in the U.S. net external debt to GDP ratio is above 5% of GDP. This means that stabilizing the external debt to GDP ratio at current levels would require reducing the trade deficit (augmented by unilateral transfers and labor payments) by about 5% of GDP, even with optimistic assumptions about the real interest rate on U.S. net external debt. � Barring immediate adjustment in the trade balance to stabilize the debt ratio right away, the amount of adjustment needed to stabilize the external debt to
....................
4 East Asia runs a current account surplus with the rest of the world, with its large surplus in bilateral trade to the U.S. offsetting deficits from commodity exporting regions. Intra-regional trade in East Asia has been growing, but some of that growth stems indirectly from growing trade with the U.S., as many Asian economies are supplying components or capital goods to China, which is becoming the world's manufacturing center.
..............
4 GDP ratio is likely to become larger for two reasons: 1) a higher debt stock implies a larger trade surplus to stabilize the debt ratio; 2) delayed stabilization and higher external debt stocks will lead to higher interest rates and lower growth, thus further increasing the trade surplus necessary to stabilize the debt ratio. � Without additional adjustment, net debt is on track to increase to about 50% of GDP and almost 500% of export revenues in 2008.
.................
� Private investors are unlikely to be willing to finance deficits of that magnitude at current low interest rates, particularly since the adjustment in the dollar required to eventually stabilize the external debt to GDP ratio implies large capital losses for holders of low-yielding dollar denominated securities (if the adjustment occurs through a fall in U.S. growth, equity investors in the U.S. will take losses). Asian central banks have been willing to finance US deficits despite the risk of future capital losses to support their own export-led growth. However, the scale of financing required from Asian central banks to sustain current account deficits of this magnitude likely exceeds the absorption capacity of Asian central banks. If current trends continue, Asian central bank reserves would have to rise from an estimated $2.3-2.4 trillion at the end of 2004 to $4.3 trillion dollars at the end of 2008 to help support a rise in U.S. net external debt from $3.3 trillion to $6.9 trillion. Chinese and Japanese reserves would need to rise from $1.1 trillion to $2.4 trillion.

� This calculation likely understates the amount of financing the U.S. would need from Asian reserves to sustain current trends. Foreign central banks, mostly East Asian central banks, provided about half the financing the U.S. needs to sustain its current account deficit in 2003. As debt levels rise, private investors are likely to become less willing to finance ongoing U.S. current account deficits at anything like current interest rates. Unless foreign banks step up their financing, the U.S. would need to adjust. � Valuation effects � capital losses for non-residents, capital gains for residents � have limited the increase in the U.S. NIIP in 2002 and 2003. The depreciation in the real value of the US dollar in 2002-2003 increased the dollar value of U.S. external assets (many of which are denominated in foreign currencies), and the rising value of U.S. external assets helped offset the impact of ongoing flow deficits on the NIIP. However, the scope for large valuation gains is likely to be more modest going forward, as the prospective valuation gains from adjusting vis-�-vis Asian currencies are much more modest than the valuation gains from adjusting vis-�-vis the major European currencies. Moreover, the U.S. should not count on being able to fool all of the people all of the time: expected persistent real depreciation of the U.S. dollar would lead foreigners to require ex-ante higher returns on their US dollar asset holdings to minimize their capital losses. Even if East Asia is willing to continue to finance large US current account deficits, it is unlikely to be willing to do so on the current, very favorable terms � terms that guarantee East Asian central banks and many other U.S. creditors large losses should the dollar eventually depreciate against their currency.
..................
5 Pulling off the adjustment needed to unwind the current U.S. external deficit smoothly will be a major policy challenge, both for the U.S. and the world. It is far easier for the needed adjustment to happen smoothly if it starts sooner rather than later: Smooth adjustment means a trade deficit of 5% of GDP gradually falls, with the U.S. adding to its external debt stock both absolutely and in relation to its income during the adjustment process. Our projections suggest that the U.S. external debt to GDP ratio double over the medium-long run � peaking at around 50% of GDP after 2010 -- even if the U.S. trade deficit started to shrink by about 0.5% of GDP annually.5 Such a measured adjustment would eliminate the trade deficit by 2015; faster adjustment would be hard to square with sustained US and global growth. If the U.S. waits until its debt to GDP ratio is already at 40 or 50% of GDP before beginning the needed adjustment, the U.S. will have less leeway to allow its external debt to rise during a process of gradual adjustment. Not only will the needed adjustment be larger, but the adjustment will likely happen much faster. Such sharp adjustment would not pleasant, either for the U.S. or for the rest of the world. As many analysts have noted, reducing the U.S. trade deficit will require that US income grow faster than consumption and overall domestic expenditure. The only way this can happen without a slowdown in U.S. growth is if exports growth picks up the slack, and net exports start to drive the U.S. economy. The rest of the world, and in particular dynamic Asian economies, must shift from relying on U.S. demand to spur its growth to providing a surplus of demand that helps support U.S. growth, just as the U.S. shifts from an economy driven by consumption growth to an economy driven by income growth. In other words, current patterns need to reverse themselves. The large U.S. current account deficit reflects macroeconomic policy choices, notably the large U.S. fiscal deficit and East Asian government's policies of reserve accumulation to support export-led growth. Consequently, the needed adjustment in the U.S. current account deficit will happen smoothly only if backed by supportive macroeconomic policies, including: � Fiscal adjustment in the United States. A low savings economy like the U.S. can only run large budget deficits without crowding out domestic investment by drawing on the world's savings. Right now, the U.S. depends on Asian reserve accumulation for cheap financing of its budget deficits cheaply. Put differently, if the U.S. continued to run a large deficit and Asia reduced its pace of reserve accumulation, U.S. interest rates would have to rise, crowding out productive investment. Recently, the U.S. has sacrificed exports (and jobs in export sectors of the economy) for cheap financing from East Asia (and jobs in interest sensitive sectors of the economy). The U.S. economy can only reduce its dependence on cheap financing if the U.S. government reduces its own borrowing need.
................
5 Since 2001, the U.S. trade deficit has deteriorated at a similar pace. Such adjustment requires US exports to grow roughly twice as fast as US imports.
....................
6 � Exchange rate adjustment and policies that support demand growth in East Asia. A current account deficit of 5% of U.S. GDP cannot be reduced if the fastest growing, most dynamic parts of the world economy continue to maintain exchange rates that suppress domestic consumption by keeping the domestic price of imports high. Europe has already let its exchange rate adjust, and, even with policies directed at supporting domestic demand growth, the aging, already developed economies of Europe will not be able to contribute as much to global demand as younger, more dynamic economies.
...........
� China sits at the center not just of East Asia's economy, but also of the global economy. China is now too big not to play a more constructive role in global economic management. Given its large stock of reserves, its rapidly expanding economy and its ability to attract $50 billion a year in foreign direct investment, there is no reason why China should not run a modest current account deficit. The rest of Asia will not adjust if China does not adjust.
.................

Introduction This paper analyzes the sustainability of U.S. external deficits6 and the "Bretton Woods Two" international monetary system that is integral to their financing. It therefore examines the sustainability of what Larry Summers has called the "balance of financial terror"7 � a system whose stability hinges on the willingness of Asian central banks to both hold enormous amounts of US Treasuries (and other US fixed income securities) and to add to their already enormous stocks to provide the ongoing financial flows needed to sustain the U.S. current account deficit and the Bretton Woods Two system.
..................
Our analysis suggests that the Bretton Woods Two system is fragile, and likely will prove unstable. Even if the United States continues to maintain a privileged place in the international monetary system and thus remains able to borrow on terms that other, comparable, debtors could not imagine, our analysis suggests that the U.S. is on an unsustainable and dangerous path.
*************
Misetich

An excellent in-depth study and analysis by Nouriel Roubini and Brad Setser, New York University, Sep. 2004

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
otish mountain
(09/14/2004; 07:23:54 MDT - Msg ID: 124411)
Euroland's open doors
Yes Belgian,

Consider for a moment if Argentina's central bank purchase of gold in the face of the IMF was not the first steps towards a monetary union.

South America has stronger ties with Europe than we North Americans are led to believe.
Cometose
(09/14/2004; 07:28:42 MDT - Msg ID: 124412)
(No Subject)

Going to get someone to paint my porch...
which reminds me of a story..

A blonde, wanting to earn some money, decided to hire herself out as a handyman-type and started canvassing a wealthy neighbourhood. She went to the front door of the first house and asked the owner if he had any jobs for her to do. "Well, you can paint my porch. How much will you charge?"
The blonde said "How about 50 dollars?" The man agreed and told her that the paint and other materials that she might need were in the garage. The man's wife, inside the house, heard the conversation and said to her husband, "Does she realize that the porch goes all the way around the house?" The man replied, "She should, she was standing on it."
A short time later, the blonde came to the door to collect her money. "You're finished already?" he asked. "Yes," the blonde answered, "and I had paint left over, so I gave it two coats." Impressed, the man reached in his pocket for the $50.
"And by the way," the blonde added, "it's not a Porch, it's a Ferrari."
Knallgold
(09/14/2004; 09:20:12 MDT - Msg ID: 124413)
WAG2
http://news.goldseek.com/AuthenticMoney/1095220800.phpGATA brought up this interesting Julian Phillips article about the details of the WAG2.It is well written and researched and goes into the possible details of the agreement.A snip:

" It may well be that these announcements confirm our expectation of lower sales than the 500 tonnes but imply that the sales that do take place will be conducted in such a way as to stabilise any overheated market. "
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(09/14/2004; 09:58:15 MDT - Msg ID: 124414)
... In Order to Form a More Perfect Union... (between You and Your Savings)
http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html

Arm yourself with knowledge
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(09/14/2004; 10:19:27 MDT - Msg ID: 124415)
What you need to know before you buy your first ounce of gold...
http://www.usagold.com/cpm/aboutcpm.html

Q. What is the best approach for the safe-haven investor?

MK. If you want to protect yourself against inflation, deflation, stock market weakness and potential currency problems -- in other words, if an economic disaster is your concern, there is only one portfolio item that will serve you in all seasons and under most circumstances -- gold coins or bullion.

Q. In recent years, we have seen a large number of gold dealers proliferate on the internet. What do you have to say about that?

MK. The internet offers an interesting challenge for the gold buyer. Fly-by-night firms are as big a problem in the gold business as they are in other areas of the investment business. One major problem at the moment are all the one-man-do-it-from-your-basement internet operations that have cropped up in the last few years. How does one know that the individual with whom you are dealing in these situations is legit? We've even heard of instances where some of these people actually have criminal records or have had past problems with regulatory authorities -- like the Federal Trade Commission or the Securities and Exchange Commission. After all, what does it take to go on-line with a website? Anyone can do it. It's up to the consumer to do their due-diligence before doing business with these operations.

Q. Any comments about your own internet presence?

MK. First and foremost, USAGOLD / Centennial has always been a brick-and-mortar brokerage headquartered in secure and professional office space here in Denver, Colorado. In function our own website is just a readily-available extension of our advertising and marketing programs. The USAGOLD website further gives us the opportunity to easily provide our clientele with timely market information and commentary.

Belgian
(09/14/2004; 11:26:36 MDT - Msg ID: 124416)
Forex analyst David Bloom - HSCB ...often says it as it is (CNBC).
The US$ exchange rate will remain stabilized, through interventions, for as long as the US economy is going nowhere. Under the present circumstances, a strongly declining dollar would have (global) disastrous effects. As soon as the economy picks up, the dollar can afford to decline in exch.rate.

Total (France/Belgium) and Statoil (Norway) are offering OPEC to invest in oil exploration. Lower (very cheap) oilprices are nescessary for having a chance to revive the economy. I think that Arabian (and other) oil is very reluctant to make those investments as to increase capacity. They don't want to run the risk, again, of having a sudden fall in the POO. A very polite excuse of course as to hide the real reasons for holding their reserves underground...for the time being.

I still wonder what miracle it will take to restart the Western economies on a sustainable growth rate ? For how long can we stay "neutral", as is today with a debtgrowth of 15% against a GDP growth of 3% at best (= 5 times more debt) ?

Wich currency, $ or �, can stay the most stable during the storms ? D. Bloom, bets on the euro.

Husky
(09/14/2004; 11:45:53 MDT - Msg ID: 124417)
RE: Forex analyst David Bloom - HSCB ...often says it as it is (CNBC).
Disagree. The US economy is struggling because its resources have been misallocated. The economy will begin to function properly again only when those misallocations are corrected. "Stabilizing" the dollar exchange rate prevents this correction from taking place in the American economy, while at the same time affording the Europeans and the Asians extra time in which to undertake their own extensive resource reallocations, which under the present conditions probably involve some greater degree of decoupling from the American economy than otherwise would have been the case. The net result is that America is losing on both fronts because nobody wants to do the dirty and get it over with.
Belgian
(09/14/2004; 12:22:41 MDT - Msg ID: 124418)
@ Knallgold
Allow me to add the most important snip (imvho) :
The Bundesbank considers gold a form of * natural hedging against strong swings in the dollar *, and is giving it (GOLD) an "important" role in the management of its funds !

Right !

WHO can possibly remain convinced that euro-CBs have been *** SELLING *** and shipping 1/2 the total amount of their PHYSICAL GOLD RESERVES out of their vaults straight on to the planet's women's neck (jewelry)!!! ???

One can only sell ONCE, without doing a rebuy.

Eurogold is not hedging against the dollar but is managing the euro's exchange rate, with the goldreserves, as to induce dollar > euro shift !

But it is of course much nicier to present the CB's actions as dollar-supportive, through stabilization efforts.

France waits for "appropiate" goldprices !? No...France wants to determine the euro's optimum exchange rate at any given moment !!!

No wonder that Trichet never answers any question about his view (hum, policies) on $-� exchange rates.
When Allan mentioned that CBs stand ready to sell Gold, should the price rise...is in fact referring to the $-� exchange rate. Remember how fast the euro recouped its exch. rate losses against the dollar(attack) at its introduction !? The ECB used its goldreserve crow-bar !

And BTW, what is exactly meant by the cryptic : stabilise any overheated market " !? The orderly $ > � transition !?
WhO has WHAT interest in de-stabilising WICH aspect of WHAT market !? Answer : CURRENCY WARS .

Thanks for posting the article, Knall gold. Cheers.
Belgian
(09/14/2004; 12:31:13 MDT - Msg ID: 124419)
@Husky
Do you mean : Crash (lower) the dollar exch. rate and get the (delocated) production of goods and services back home in the US !? What about the implications of price-infla-hyperinfla, that goes with this (action and reaction) ? Please elaborate. TIA.
Husky
(09/14/2004; 12:56:54 MDT - Msg ID: 124420)
@Belgian
Stable prices are just window dressing if that means the entire workforce has to be either unemployed or underemployed and hence can't buy anthing anyway. So there is no real difference: either you can't buy anything because you aren't working or you can't buy anything because the prices are too high for what you're earning. Except that there is one difference between them: one scenario makes America stonger and the other one keeps making it weaker. So yes, the sooner the dollar crashes and the adjustments start to be made, the better it is for America.
Federal_Reserves
(09/14/2004; 13:52:22 MDT - Msg ID: 124421)
The enemy within
those who are not enforcing US immigration laws.

Backstabbing the US worker.

50% of the population of LA don't know enough English to fill in a job application.









Gonlyold
(09/14/2004; 13:53:20 MDT - Msg ID: 124422)
An Element of FRB's Intention
I made some calls to see if the Fed. Res. Bank still made $500.00 bills (paper currency). I was told by a number of banks, including the FRB of Pittsburg, that they've never seen a $500.00 bill. One bank assured me that they did exist but were out of circulation. I would think that with the reduced US$ value, the FRB would have made large demonination bills readily available. However, such is not the case. Presently, only $100.00 bills are available. Hard to carry on transactions with small demonination bills. What can we surmise out of this?

My thoughts are that the FRB has no intention to continue producing paper money. I am convinced that their intention is to have digital money and digital money only. This absence of $500.00 bills is just one element in support of that opinion.

It's getting that you cannot buy or sell without going through a bank? Hm-m-m-m...
Gonlyold
(09/14/2004; 14:02:21 MDT - Msg ID: 124423)
Spelling OOPS
That should be "denomination". However, it could be an interesting play on words.
Belgian
(09/14/2004; 15:23:32 MDT - Msg ID: 124424)
@ Husky
When the dollar crashes...all other currencies, wich are dollar-derivatives, do crash also. Can one crash enough as to be able to compete with Asia !? And who is politically ready to take the blame for having presided a crashing dollar ? A hyper-price-inflation of epic proportions is not a fiesta. And don't forget that the dollar is this globe's reserve currency...meaning that a dollar-crash has greater consequences than with any other inflating currency.
I think that stabilising the dollar and slowly give up reserve status will be less painfull than trying to organize (to allow) a contained crash with price-hyper-inflation ? Maybe it are the coming elections that are masking the real options that probably already have been taken (decided). Let us not forget that politics is a business of "power" and not a matter of the right decisions on the right moment.

Knallgold's posting of J.D.W. Phillips is illustrating how the thoughts on Gold's -new- role are changing. Maybe we can get "around" the hardships of hyperinfladada ???
USAGOLD Daily Market Report
(09/14/2004; 16:34:53 MDT - Msg ID: 124425)
Page Update!
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Daily Gold Market Report has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.

---closing market excerpts---

December gold finished $1.50 firmer at $407.50 an ounce...

"No question that dovish numbers that have been coming out, and are anticipated to come out, put a slant on a stronger euro and therefore stronger gold," said Bob Gottlieb, Head of Trading in New York for HSBC.

Gottlieb and others said the gold selling of last week had abated and some players who had gotten short in the downdraft were coming back this week to cover those short positions.

The dollar weakened on Tuesday, weighed down by a report showing the U.S. current account gap ballooned by more than analysts' forecasts.

The Commerce Department reported that the U.S. current account deficit exploded to a record $166.18 billion in the second quarter from an upwardly revised first-quarter gap of $147.16 billion.

At the same time, U.S. retail sales slipped 0.3 percent in August from a 0.8 percent gain in July.

One analyst said there was no way to spin Tuesday's data as good news for the dollar, with retail sales weaker than expected and the trade deficit at an all-time record.

Anticipation of weak U.S. economic statistics later in the week should continue to undermine the dollar and help gold...

---(see url for access to full news, 24-hr newswire)----
Husky
(09/14/2004; 16:57:30 MDT - Msg ID: 124426)
@Belgian
Sure all other currencies will crash. Remember though that this is an administration that tore up an arms control treaty, spat at the Kyoto understanding, ridiculed the UN, etc., etc. and Lord knows what else - they are not going to commit national suicide in order to give the rest of the world a break.

Americans don't think like that.

Yes, stabilizing the dollar and giving up the reserve currency status is better for the rest of the planet if it is done slowly, absolutely and I quite agree with that assertion, in particular it is a great deal for Europe. But, for America, it is really dumb - it thoroughly destroys the nation's ability to compete while simultaneously aiding those who would compete against it - a double whammy. Expecting the US to be defferential to the interests of the rest of the world is just not consistent with the way American governments behave.
Ag Mountain
(09/14/2004; 18:05:35 MDT - Msg ID: 124427)
@Husky
What institution gets the blame for failing so completely to teach you anything about economics?

You're right about one thing. The US is not going to just commit national suicide. Part of that means we have a vested interest to be in on the deal to stabilize the situation for a gradual weakening of the dollar. Even if we were going it alone without anyone else's interests in mind we wouldn't let it fall dramatically in the name of export competitiveness for at least two reasons. Due to the mathematical connectivity reasons Belgian said, and also because it would risk a sudden abandoment of our reserve-currency status along with the suicidal economic shock from losing that privilege.
Gandalf the White
(09/14/2004; 18:09:14 MDT - Msg ID: 124428)
UPDATE on the use of "GOLD" in today's Advertising, AND MORE!
The Hobbits checked my grocery purchases this evening and found:
1) a plastic bottle with handle labeled "Golden Griddle" pancake syrup, a loaf of "Golden Grain" bread, some "Gold Medal" flour, some "Gold Medal" winning sparkling apple juice, and so on ---- Do you get the picture ?
GOLD is the BEST thing to have ! EVERYONE thinks so.
--
Where do I get my "Golden Reserves" ( the REAL thing) ?
I have trusted USAGOLD -- Centennial Precious Metals -- for years and have NEVER been let down !
TRUST should be their middle name.
TRY them once and you will be a lifetime customer.
GW
melda laure
(09/14/2004; 18:33:51 MDT - Msg ID: 124429)
half gallon notes and pint euro note, Gonlyold
Your thoughts echo my suspicions. The half gallon FRN note has been out of print for some years now, and while not rare enough they are priced far more than I would pay to own one. I'll call it a half gallon note since that's what we call a half kilowatt in radio work (500W). I suppose in euroland they'd have a half litre, or 500mL note, though I cant imagine what sort of beverage should fetch such a price.

But now of course I'm curious. What sort of digital money will we have? Specifically, (given the derivative mess we have now) how will the FRB limit its issue? Physical FRN's are the last fuse in the fusebox, far more than a political fuse it is a psychological one. Which counterfeiter is the greate worry? The illicit printer of a few thousands of 20's or the issuer of a few 10's of billions of rogue derivatives? When a dozen donuts go for a half gallon note cash as we know it will be history.

Tell me, do you forsee the following conversation: "Yes Mr Buffet your credit is still good, but I cant debit your account for the happy meal beacause the Department of Financial Security has put a "restrict all transactions" hold on your access code!" In other words, with cash, only the individual note could be refused. With digital cash, the whole individual himself could be "refused". Or a person (government) not a party to the transaction could "delist" your money- even after your credits have passed through several more hands.

At that stage, money will no longer be "property", I'm not sure it will then qualifiy as credit/debt.

For my part I expect that the half gallon note will come back; the quarter is the new penny: already it is well nigh useless- it is the smallest coin that circulates at the farmers market locally. Physical notes (even Smart Notes, with embedded electronics) are here to stay, lest future americans start hoarding euros or (worse yet for the Greenshades Lords) that yellow stuff.
Husky
(09/14/2004; 18:34:54 MDT - Msg ID: 124430)
@Ag Mountain
Seems we got our PhDs at the same institution :) A sudden abandoment of the reserve currency status is beneficial to the US if all currencies are worthless as a result, to get real about it, defaulting on the dollar-denominated assets held by foreign CBs is far from suicide for the US, in fact
the US is very clearly the winner in that situation.
melda laure
(09/14/2004; 18:46:44 MDT - Msg ID: 124431)
Cash and apache noun classes.
Curious, you remind me that there is a noun class in certain languages (as in Spanish there are feminine and masculine nouns). One class is "those things that can be cast away", eg arrows, stones, peaches. Another noun class is "those things a part of me" eg, a bow, a sling, etc. In some ideas of digital cash the money may not be "spendable" Not to mention the class of 'things that melt away" such as wraiths, clouds, and bad dreams (hardly a suitable vessel for wealth). Perhaps it is a defect of our language that it hides these distinctions so easily.

Ag Mountain
(09/14/2004; 19:00:11 MDT - Msg ID: 124432)
@Husky
In what way is the US a winner under your recipe for total isolation from foreign goods and cessation of inflows of foreign money?

You don't seem to hold much appreciation for the very real economic and labor benefits of comparative advantage and specialization as they apply between individual homesteads and national borders alike.

How about writing me back with your reply only after you've had a relaxing meal from food you've grown and after knitting your own computer and telecommunications system from the earth in your own backyard.

To get real about it as you like to say, a guy doesn't have much use for gold in the end if he doesn't do any trading with others for anything. Welcome to your Utopia and at the same time welcome to Hell.
Liberty Head
(09/14/2004; 19:02:43 MDT - Msg ID: 124433)
Gold Mining Fund LeansToward Gold Bullion

Earlier this year Tocqueville Gold Fund changed their asset mix of mining shares vs. gold bullion from 95%/5% to 90%/10%.
They now want to change the mix further to 80%/20%.
This is a clear indication that gold bullion in your hand is gaining favor over unhedged mining shares.
For those of us who need a weather vain, here it is.
It points to gold bullion.
So, back your truck up to the CPM loading dock, have them fire up the fork lift and drop a couple pallets of gold bars in the back.
You'll be glad you did.

Best Wishes
White Hills
(09/14/2004; 19:51:15 MDT - Msg ID: 124434)
Dollar Default
!!!!!!!YES!!!!! The dirty little secret!! What happened when Nixon Closed the Gold Window??? 30 Plus years of economic growth and prosperity, that is what. White Hills
Liberty Head
(09/14/2004; 20:58:42 MDT - Msg ID: 124435)
A Tale Of Economic Growth And Prosperity...Then Default
http://www.piratesinfo.com/biography/biography.php?article_id=39
Snippit:
Edward "Blackbeard" Teach was undoubtedly one of the most feared and most despised pirates of all time. Edward Teach is thought to have lived in England before his pirate career, although his exact origins are unknown. He was named "Blackbeard", for his large black beard that almost covered his entire face. To strike terror in the hearts of his enemies Blackbeard would weave hemp into his hair, and light it during battle. Edward Teach was an unusually large man, carrying two swords, numerous knives, and pistols- he was feared by his own crew. ............

Before he fell, he had a reported 5 bullet wounds and more than twenty sword cuts before dying.
---------------

Best Wishes
Goldendome
(09/14/2004; 21:57:57 MDT - Msg ID: 124436)
Drop the Debt Bomb!

Isn't Sir Husky onto something here? Whose fault is it when creditors continue to lend to over extended borrowers with no hope to repay? And, won't they get in the end what they should see coming (nothing), not what they expect? As I read Husky, seems to me that he makes the argument that the sooner we drop the debt bomb on these guys and get it over with, the sooner that our nation can get about the job of discovering once again, how to support itself...once again, relying on our own industry. And don't say, that no one will ever again sell us anything. Who else are all of these countries going to sell their products to? Countries with the plants making flip-flops and TV's and cars and what-not of every size and description, who they gonna sell it to? Borneo? Brussels? Budapest? With out the good old USA to buy all of their products (probably on credit again), the whole world sinks into depression, so they better find a way to play ball with the US of A!!! These other countries might be advised to remember that he who holds the gold makes the rules; and he who holds the guns will hold on to the gold. So don't expect any to leave our protective safekeeping hands for the untamed wilds of the rest of the world (no matter who may think they hold title)!!!
Ag Mountain
(09/14/2004; 22:11:12 MDT - Msg ID: 124437)
@White Hills, dollar default
Prosperity from Nixon's default? It was purely conditional due to the times as you should already know.

As Aristotle and Belgian said there wasn't an alternative like there is now. Now you can't expect another 30 years of prosperity to follow another reneging on our bonds.

So what really happened under Nixon at that time was that gold was incrementally set free. It was initially freed from fixation to the very hard chains of national currency but then within ten years it was bound in the softer ropes of derivatives.

Now the only question is will the remaining stage of freedom come from de facto forces of domino derivative defaults, or will it come from de jure forces of evolving central bank policy as a way to minimize systemic risks? Either way you'll want gold before it happens because it's heading that way, one way or another.
Smeagol
(09/14/2004; 22:26:07 MDT - Msg ID: 124438)
Yess, perhaps they CAN
...do without the USA, after a default... the world is not that small. Will you yoursself, Ssir Goldendome, ssell things of yours more than once, to they that after they have your goods, turn bright swords to you and bid you good-bye with a ssmile? Then ssell us your Gold, please! (cackle!) If it can happen once, with no penalty, of course it will happen again. Debt musst be once and for all sseparated from Wealth sso that it may be sseen for what it is - a gamble with a risk of no return, that many will not care to chance. If ssome do, well, they deserve it.

S.
Ag Mountain
(09/14/2004; 22:33:49 MDT - Msg ID: 124439)
@Goldendome, RE: the part where you wrote
"...don't say, that no one will ever again sell us anything. Who else are all of these countries going to sell their products to? Countries with the plants making flip-flops and TV's and cars and what-not of every size and description, who they gonna sell it to? Borneo? Brussels? Budapest? With out the good old USA to buy all of their products (probably on credit again), the whole world sinks into depression, so they better find a way to play ball with the US of A!!!"

You're being sarcastic I hope?

Do you really think those other country really need us and our series of defaults coming one after the other?

Here's a thought. Istead of taking another worthless stack of our bogus promissory notes all in the name of keeping up their employment levels, why wouldn't they begin to feel cheated by our privilege and resort to another solution. They could just as easily have their own governments crank up their own bogus paper presses in order to pay their workers for these flip-flops and TVs and cars and what-nots of every size. Then they could just keep on making all those good and then just dump them right into the ocean. That way our single nation isn't uniquely blessed with the special privileges like it now enjoys. So right now the smartest thing a US citizen can actually do is just keep spending his dollars as fast as he can on real things including gold.

If we take husky's advice and demonstrate again that we can't be trusted with our bonded promises, we'll find out that we can't buy anything abroad unless we barter for it with grain or gold.
Ag Mountain
(09/14/2004; 22:36:09 MDT - Msg ID: 124440)
You are exactly right Smeagol
Thanks for speaking up.
Smeagol
(09/14/2004; 23:02:38 MDT - Msg ID: 124441)
Ssir Ag Mountain, "If we take husky's advice and demonstrate again that we can't be trusted with our bonded promises..." O Yess... key word there... AGAIN!

S.
Ag Mountain
(09/14/2004; 23:07:07 MDT - Msg ID: 124442)
All I'm trying to say is we can't default our way to a free lunch
It's a mess. We're all involved on one side or another to various degrees. Fortunately a little gold can go a long way to patching up whatever might go wrong for any of us. Like really good duct tape. It's worth twenty times the price.
968
(09/15/2004; 02:10:36 MDT - Msg ID: 124443)
Japanese PM Koizumis' visit to Brasil : reduce Japans' oil-depency.
http://www.baz.ch/news/index.cfm?keyID=D9D08A04-1208-4059-9E63E3737491F484&ObjectID=FEB41E49-60CF-2062-F4E93FC323C2CB16Japanese PM Koizumi says in Brasil Japan wants to reduce its oildepency. Japan is very interested in the Brasilian development of alcoholfuel.
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(09/15/2004; 02:28:51 MDT - Msg ID: 124444)
On your Markkaa, get set, go! Once again we welcome your participation in this month's Buyers' Group.
http://www.usagold.com/gold/special/Markkaa.html

Finland goldFinland goldSeptember Buyers' Group
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DoubleEagle
(09/15/2004; 02:46:52 MDT - Msg ID: 124445)
RE: GONLYOLD AND THE $500 FRN
I believe all the large denom FRN's (500,1000,5000,10000) stopped officially circulating in 1969. Still perfectly legal, but if one makes it back to a FRB, they'll probably be destroyed. Last series were printed in the late 40's if memory serves. They're neat to look at, but never struck me as being worth any more than a modern $20 bill. Same paper after all. My local bullion/coin/rarities dealer had a very nice $500 that he wanted $1100 for, and I did mull it over, but end the end settled on 3 double eagles for the same price (gold being around $310 oz back then).

On the subject of cash, I will admit to a certain affinity for it. Like the anonimity of it, and the willingness of everyone that walks and crawls in America to take it. Always carry several hundred dollars. Best not to have to rely on electronic exchange when out and about. This freaks my mother and father out. They are of the opinion that one does not carry cash. Strangely, my 83 year old grandmother does understand; she being of a different era.

I don't think you'll ever again see another large denom priting by our federal reserve outside of a hyperinflation scenario. The government wants to you make easily traceable transactions. I think they're of the opinion that the only folks who would use them are drug dealers and terrorists. We get punished along with. I do think the euro goes up to a 200 denom. Maybe they're more farsighted than one might think?

I'll close with an anecdotal story. A recently retired coworker of mine and I had this very discussion late one night, and he related that as a child, and a teen ager, he would go with his father to local livestock sales. All transactions were done face to face, in cash, and $500 and $1000 bills were common. If only we'd kept to such habits.

-Double Eagle
Spartacus
(09/15/2004; 04:18:56 MDT - Msg ID: 124446)
Art show sees Europe as 'new Roman Empire'
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2004/09/14/weu14.xml&sSheet=/news/2004/09/14/ixworld.html
Art show sees Europe as 'new Roman Empire'
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard in Brussels


--The European Union is poised to overtake America to become the premier superpower, according to an EU exhibition launched yesterday in the heart of Brussels.

The pop-art collage mounted in a tent outside the European Commission narrates 50 years of EU history and projects events into the future in an unusually frank display of European ambition.--
Chris Powell
(09/15/2004; 06:33:00 MDT - Msg ID: 124447)
The Gartman Letter sneers at the Sprott report and GATA ...
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/2383...and prompts a reply from GATA.


To subscribe to GATA's dispatches, send an e-mail to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com
goldquest
(09/15/2004; 08:26:02 MDT - Msg ID: 124448)
Gartman Letter
I am sure Mr. Gartman put a lot of time and research into his rebuttal letter!
Let me guess, he checked with Goldman Sachs, The Fed and The U S Treasury, to confirm his information.
Mr. Gatman's snippy attitude probably prompts many reactions from people in the investment world, whether they are Gold Bugs or those, "sane" investors that believe all markets are fair and above reproach.
Dollar Bill
(09/15/2004; 08:59:20 MDT - Msg ID: 124449)
.,.
Good posts folks, as usual.
Husky, wouldnt you figure that the big boys are building a new model that, well, is not the same as the old model!
And they know that fiat amongst nations has a short life span,
and so the big boys are all on board the one fiat new model.

Since saddam, and the defeat of the chirac old financial model enthusiests, the euro cb's have agreed to cooperate with the us, japan, china, oil patch group to build the new model.
Which is why we will be seeing the EU march off the debt cliff, joining the us and japan in the new infinite debt model of........what.........financial insanity sure, but what choice do they have ?
Fiat demands either chaos, which the politicians dont want to deal with, or a try at a global fiat with one overriding controlling group that will dole out money like allowances to nations.......not today, but that is my guess for the model they are bridgeing us to.
Gold of course stands ready to provide us a life raft when they fail!
The Hoople
(09/15/2004; 09:45:35 MDT - Msg ID: 124450)
GArTmAn letter... just another paid shill
Gartman couldn't speak truth if he even wanted to. His banker client list would squish him like a bug. His reply was revealing in its lack of professionalism and his goofy jingoism. Gartman like Wood will one day just slink away and be nowhere to be found when TSHTF in gold/silver manipulations. Is there a single Wall Street analyst- Abby, Ralph, all those CNBC bozos- that owned up to their "strong buy" on Enron? GATA will be right, with or without any accolade for it. At least the name Gartman contains the 4 letters of truth- GATA.
American Expression
(09/15/2004; 09:56:02 MDT - Msg ID: 124451)
RE: GONLYOLD AND THE $500 FRN

"The entire taxing and monetary systems are hereby placed under the U.C.C. (Uniform Commercial Code)" -- The Federal Tax Lien Act of 1966

When the U.C.C. was adopted TPTB were forced to withdraw large currencies because: "Pursuant the U.C.C.," under the jurisdiction of the commercial credit system if a customer was to tender a $500 or $1000 legal tender note for a $10.00 or $20.00 purchase, such as a meal consumed or gasoline pumped, the merchant is required to provide and tender the difference between the exchange funds to complete the instant contract. If the merchant should fail to provide the contract terms by remitting the difference amount, the consumer is under no further obligation to remit payment. The consumer is only obligated to provide tender equal to or exceeding the instant contract amount.

The U.C.C. is commercial contract law. A instant legal presumption exists when the consumer contracts for say a $10.00 meal, the merchant agrees to accept the instant contract in exchange for value when the food is ordered and delivered ... next the contracting parties to finalize the contract must exchange value. The consumer provides his legal tender value of say a $1,000.00 legal tender note for a $10.00 meal, but the restaurateur for security or cash flow reasons only keeps $750 cash on hand for performing exchanges. The consumer fulfilled his legal obligation when he tendered the legal tender note no matter the denomination for as long as the denomination exceeds the contract amount due and owing. If the restaurateur cannot provide for the exchange, the contract cannot be instantly finalized and is null and void for breach of contract. The consumer/tenderer is under no legal obligation to tender notes of less value even if he possesses them, he is only legally obligated to tender an amount equal to or greater than the transaction amount.

I know someone that filled up with $22.00 gasoline late one night and the convenience store could not provide change for a $100 note tendered. The convienience store clerk telephoned the Police seeking relief and remedy, the Police told the clerk, "provide the change, or he and the gas he pumped is free to go!

The large denominated fiat notes were withdrawn from the commercial credit system due to instant contracts, security and cash flow reasons as well as the "mechanics of fractional reserve banking." If large legal tender note denominations were in circulation and circulating freely, the merchants pursuant the U.C.C. would require on average a much larger cash till operating inventory. Instead of less than $1000 on hand to complete small exchanges, merchants would be forced to keep upwards of $10,000 available and on hand at all times ... This would limit the banking systems ability to fractionalize those cash assets ..... and would also require the banking system to keep much more cash in reserve and on hand for providing exchanges.

And you wonder why one ounce U.S. gold eaglets are OFFICIALLY denominated as $50.00 legal tender and U.S. platinum eaglets bare a $100.00 denomination instead of floating with spot! It's the law, all required pursuant the rule of uniformity under contract law pursuant the U.C.C.

I hope this answers any remaining questions or theories concerning the subject matter of the withdraw of large legal tender notes!

(Not Legal Advice)
Husky
(09/15/2004; 11:04:55 MDT - Msg ID: 124452)
@Dollar Bill
The endgame is probably an e-currency model. The papers put out by the CBs as a whole several years ago were evidencing an inordinate amount of interest in the possibilities of such. However, under the current business environment any alternative to the PMs as a global replacement for fiat currencies would likely be riddled with fraud and/or massive rip-offs from the get-go. So, as I see it, we need a PM phase to wash out the rot before going to a global e-currency. It's called restoring confidence in the crooks, and it's necessary.
TownCrier
(09/15/2004; 11:13:21 MDT - Msg ID: 124453)
American Expression -- withdrawing large legal tender notes
http://www.usagold.com/centralbank/CBSeptember2004.htmlWell done. Not to mention, also, the enticement and risk of those largely unfamiliar bills being counterfeited and successfully passed umong unsuspecting recipients. Another reason for their elimination from currency in 1969 was declining demand. Between increase use of check writing and electronic transfer (such as CHIPS >>FedWire), individuals and institutions haven't the need to shoulder the risk of outright loss of the item or through a scammer's sham.

Retired from active duty are McKinley ($500), Cleveland ($1000), Madison ($5000), Chase ($10,000), and Wilson ($100,000). I would surely never know a real Madison if I were to be handed one, thus I would be disinclined to accept it. When the new $100s were initially put into circulation, there were common stories of clerks and cash operators who refused to accept them over other or older bills due to the unfamiliarity.

Additionally, to round out the list, there is a school of thought among monetary officials that believes that use of only smaller sized bills and coins helps to curb inflationary trends. In Europe, to cite one handy example, some are keeping their small coppers to that effect while others are phasing them out. See news story below.

----HEADLINE: CAST OFF THOSE COPPERS----

One and two cent coins, jamming the wallets of consumers around Europe, and handed over the counter to the dismay of shop owners, may soon be a thing of the past for residents of Belgium and the Netherlands. These countries are now set to follow Finland in scrapping the smallest denominations of the euro, leaving consumers to round bills to the nearest five cents and thus avoiding those awkward (but often, for the consumer at least, uniquely satisfying) transactions consisting of carefully counted coppers.

Germany is exercising characteristic caution over the matter, fearful that the move may trigger further inflation similar to that seen at the introduction of the Euro. However, Belgium's central bank, looking to Finland as an example, expects that prices should rise by no more that 0.1%, and even if shopkeepers round all bills up to the nearest five (prices will remain labeled the same), the inflation is estimated to be no more than 0.4%.

The coins will remain legal tender throughout the eurozone, but countries rounding bills wish to reduce the volume in circulation. Not only are the coins expensive to mint, Dutch retailers estimate that counting the coins alone costs them EUR30m a year.

---(from latest 'Central Bank Insider', see url)-----

R.
TownCrier
(09/15/2004; 11:38:33 MDT - Msg ID: 124454)
More excerpts from the latest 'CB Insider'
http://www.usagold.com/centralbank/current.htmlAfter a holiday, the clever folks at Central Banking Publications Ltd are back at the keyboard. A few of the items most relevant to our interests are excerpted below.


Argentine protesters storm central bank building

About 400 protesters waving banners marched into the main entrance of the central bank of Argentina in Buenos Aires last week, calling for President Nestor Kirchner to end relations with the International Monetary Fund. (see related stories below)



NARROWING OPTIONS FOR GOLD SALES?

One thing [Bundesbank President] Weber seems disinterested in is the subject of possible German gold sales. In fact, he went on record in an interview with Die Zeit as saying that gold holdings "are a natural hedge against dollar fluctuations". This warmed the hearts of the gold bugs. And the ECB has banned the use of gold sales proceeds to fund the research and educational establishment that the former president Welteke was so keen on.

Some observers like UBS feel that Germany may be cooling on gold sales. In that case would France step up to fill the gap in the famous central bank agreement to sell up to 2,500 tonnes in the five years from September? Or Italy? [No, apparently not Italy -- see sidebar below.] The trouble is, governments everywhere are interested in selling gold -- only if they can get their hands on the loot. And that is exactly what the ECB is determined to prevent. Why? You guessed it -- it would break the rules of the stability pact if not of the Maastricht treaty itself. All this has made UBS and other analysts suspect that maybe there won't be as big a volume of central disposals to the markets as everybody had been expecting... But then, the central bankers might just disappoint them, again.
__________________________________________
Italy central bank says no plans to sell gold reserves

ROME, Sept 13 (Reuters) - The Bank of Italy said in a statement on Monday it had no plans to sell its gold reserves.

"The Bank of Italy ... has not spoken of this matter, nor does any plan of this type exist," it said in a statement.
__________________________________________


RAISE THOSE ANTI-IMF PLACARDS

A new board game called "Eternal Debt" has swept Argentina. The winner is the last person to have to declare bankruptcy by accumulating the least debt and therefore beating the IMF. It is structured similarly to Monopoly, only rather than accumulating wealth -- the aim is to accumulate the least debt. The board is divided into 'southern' and 'northern' zones, intended to represent Latin America and North America respectively. In the southern zone, the board is filled with squares which represent commodities such as oil, sugar, or cotton interspersed with squares that represent capital flight, currency devaluation, or coups d'�tat -- the sorts of catastrophes that would cause the player to lose money or assets. In the northern zone, there aresquares representing the industries which consume the commodities found in the southern zone. There are two other superimposed squares, labeled IMF and Tariff Barriers.

On passing what in monopoly would be labeled "Go" but here is called "IMF", payments must be made. If you don't have enough money you must borrow.

In the last paragraph of the game's instructions, under the heading 'End of the Game', it warns that players may suffer financial collapse during the course of the game. The IMF then embargoes all of their property and everybody loses:

" In this case, placards with anti-IMF slogans will be raised and a new game will begin."

FUND MADE MISTAKES, BUT NOBODY'S AT FAULT

The IMF's independent evaluation office has strongly criticized the Fund for supporting Argentina for too long after it became clear in the late 1990s that the political ability to deliver the necessary structural reforms and fiscal discipline was lacking. Indeed, whatever the deal eventually struck with Argentina, it is clear that the costs of this episode have been huge, that massive mistakes were made and that nobody at the Fund will be penalized or disciplined in any way. Indeed, the guy who was in charge at the time, Horst Koehler, is no longeraround to shoulder responsibility. He has left to become president of Germany. Yes, well... For the IMF's management response, see its Management Response (66 KB pdf file) on its website, www.imf.org


ECONOMISTS NEED NOT APPLY

At a time when economists are infiltrating every corner of central banking, Thailand is bucking the trend. The Nation reports that as the Bank of Thailand has started a three-year programme to downsize its workforce, it is looking for financial engineers rather than economists. It wants experts "who can deal with the growing complexities of the global market and the challenges involved in managing the baht float".

"We will not recruit new staff except those who can handle risk management," Duangmanee Vongpradhip, senior director of the human resource group, was quoted as saying. [Randy's note: That concern almost reminds one of Weber's comments cited above with Die Zeit that gold holdings "are a natural hedge against dollar fluctuations".]

The central bank no longer seeks economists or accountants. It is offering fellowships for study in financial engineering at the master's and doctorate levels. More financial engineers are considered crucial to the centralbank's policy of strengthening its risk-management control, reported the newspaper.


WILL CHIRAC AND SCHRODER GO TO CANOSSA?

Jean-Claude Trichet, president of the ECB, returned from his summer holidays with a fight on his hands. The EC of course wants to change the stability pact to make it easier for politicians to run wopping budget deficits. The high priests of monetary stability in the Eurozone want to stop any such move dead in its tracks.

Joaquin Almunia, European Monetary Affairs Commissioner, had the cheek to claim that he did not expect any resistance from the central bankers to a convenient watering down of the Europact...


GREENSPAN AT THE HOLE

The Oracle has spoken. As American election-fever reaches boiling point, Alan Greenspan has entered the fray to comment on that all-important but all-too-often ignored issue -- no, not Iraq, but the balancing of the United States budget. As everybody knows, US fiscal policy is out of control.

Greenspan did not quite put it like that. But at the central banker's annual conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Greenspan he did allow himself to air his concerns that the country owes more to retirees than the economy will ever have the ability to deliver.

Or put it another way, it will only be able to delver on these commitments by raising taxes hugely -- reducing the real incomes gains of current workers. He called for a recalibration of public programs, warning "If we delay, the adjustments could be abrupt and painful".

As baby boomers retire in the coming decade, and most of them go on to live for donkeys years afterwards, social security tax receipts will not cover the cost of outlays as of 2018....

---(see url for full reporting)-----

Good stuff as always, presented for your enlightment pleasure in a delightfully light-hearted style.

R.
TownCrier
(09/15/2004; 12:32:12 MDT - Msg ID: 124455)
Fed today enters open market, buys Treasuries outright
Working a little yield-suppression magic at the outer ends of the yield curve, the Federal Reserve's trading desk today descended upon the open market like a dove, adding 'permanent' cash to the nation's monetary system through the outright purchase of Treasury securities ranging from November 2012 to February 2026. The size of the operation was $800 million.

Also today the Fed made a temporary injection of $7 billion through a round of overnight repos, the bulk of which was provided at a soft average rate of 1.475 percent, a shade lower than the FOMC's policy target.

The other side of the pond offers a study in contrast, where the latest consolidated financial statement of the Eurosystem reveals that the System's net monetary provisions to financials again declined, this time by EUR 1.4 billion as a maturing main refinancing operation of EUR 254 billion last Wednesday was replaced by EUR 252.5. (diff. from rounding, marginal lending, et al)

When all is said and done about the ease of ability with which new money can be provided upon the scene to the potential risk of its own depreciation, a would-be saver has but one thought to consider:

"You have to choose between trusting to the natural stability of gold and the natural stability of the honesty and intelligence of the members of the Government. And, with due respect for these gentlemen, I advise you, as long as the capitalist system lasts, to vote for gold." --George Bernard Shaw

R.
American Expression
(09/15/2004; 15:12:00 MDT - Msg ID: 124456)
@TownCrier
Can you image the risks involved to private merchants if $500, $1000 & $5000 legal tender notes were circulating? Think about it, a Walmart Store, Home Depot or Sears retail cash register for instance would require a $3000 - $15000+ beginning cash balance to begin the commercial day. Now multiply this amount by the thousands of cash registers in the country and now were talking about some serious FRN's withdrawn from the commercial fractional banking and credit system just to conduct average daily commercial transactions ....

And since the U.S. Public School Systems are so efficient at teaching elementary BASIC mathematics for daily living (LOL), imagine the errors and losses that would be incurred at the McDonalds drive thru window when a Citizen tenders a $1000 note for a Super Sized Big Mac combo. Next consider the poor little H.S. graduate or drop out from Po Dunk, U.S.A. at the take out window nervously fumbling, counting and recounting $994.87 in change .... this in turn requires the Consumer to count and recount the $994.87 before departing as well. Such actions would surely slow down the fast food process as well as the velocity of most retail processes. In the end, and from a macro perspective, large notes over $100 would effect the average commercial efficiency of daily commercial exchanges and transactions, but more importantly overtime it would effect the velocity of money. Hence, the induced maximum limit on FRN denominations of $100.00.

And today in the time period/era we exist and since the Amerika we dwell in has been elevated to such "high moral standards of personal and individual responsibility" along with alcohol abuse, narcotic usage and divorce rates one must also consider the average employees and average corporate and other managements that would be charged with the responsibility of overseeing cash registers teeming full of thousands of FRN's to tender proper exchange of $500, $1000 & $5000 notes on legal tender demand. Consider the matter of risk of theft. Dealing daily with such cash amounts would present many moral dilemas to a common manager or employee down on their luck. After all, have we not been witnessing the scandalous morals of political and corporate America?, namely Halibutron, Enron, World Com, etc., etc., etc. But of course, the moral breakdown begins at the top and flows to the bottom sooner rather than later.



"For at least another hundred years we must pretend to ourselves and to every one that fair is foul and foul is fair; for foul is useful and fair is not. Avarice and usury and precaution must be our gods for a little longer still." --John Maynard Keynes

"Capitalism is the astounding belief that the most wickedest of men will do the most wickedest of things for the greatest good of everyone." --John Maynard Keynes
TownCrier
(09/15/2004; 15:34:13 MDT - Msg ID: 124457)
AmEx, I wish JM Keynes were alive today
At a minimum I'd let him know that capitalism gets woefully short shrift by his hand in the quote you've passed along. Truth be told, the same collection of the most wickedest of men will work their same will within ANY system, and it is uniquely by the wonders of the capitalistic system and none other that any deleterious effects of those rascals are most elegantly and automatically moderated into something tolerable rather than spiraling into some form of wicked tyrannical control of the many by the few.

Live and learn, they say... so I guess Keynes was simply reproachable (along with many of his economic disciples) of dying (or publishing) too soon.

:-)

R.
Boilermaker
(09/15/2004; 15:45:28 MDT - Msg ID: 124458)
Financial Hurricane Warning
Hurricane Ivan is just hours away from the Gulf Coast and bearing down relentlessly. People have been coonstantly updated and well warned of the physical power and devestation that it will bring. The media has got everyone's attention and is doing their best to scare the hell out of people in its path. Millions of people are fleeing Ivan's ground zero. They are well advised and taking that advice.

Ivan is a good metaphore for the financial hurricane (I would call it "Alan") that's brewing offshore. Hurricane Alan is a stealth storm, created and nurtured by malelovent financial interests who would suck their energy/profits from the productive sector of our society. Their financial manipulation is creating greater and greater pressures on the economic system. The pressure is building but it has been kept offshore. But at some point in the not distant future it will reach shore and release devastation on the people living in its path, people living in the land of the US$.

Only a few ineffectual voices have spotted Hurricane Alan and sounded the warnings. Many others are aware but don't want to spoil the parties that they're attending. And then there's the 99.9% of residents totally in the financial dark.

God be merciful on those in the path af Ivan and Alan. God bless those who are warning of hurricane Ivan. God damn those hiding hurricane Alan.

You know the drill, get you some gold, the only stuff effective against financial hurricanes. But there is a another calling for those of us with friends and loved ones. Sound the alarm. We may be the prophets of doom and gloom but that is what hurricanes are all about.
American Expression
(09/15/2004; 16:28:59 MDT - Msg ID: 124459)
@ Boilermaker "Financial Hurricane": Gross Domestic Product Implicit Price Deflator
http://www.economagic.com/em-cgi/charter.exe/fedstl/gdpdefIt is a blessing as well as a curse to be in the company of 1:250,0000 Citizens that understand the technical and more importantly the fundamental economics that exist today due to fractional reserve banking with usury attached to the medium of exchange system.

The show must go on until it cannot perform any longer, just like the Roman Circus carried on as the Barbarians were tearing down the gate! All of Rome was in denial until that fateful day was upon them. Now thats the scary part when viewing the current situation.

I'd rather be three years early then one day late when the debt backed by debt fractional reserve compound interest commercial credit system resets to reality and the real mean! Until then, I keep gold as an alternative investment to retain my fundamental purchasing power vs. the fractional reserve system on life support (IR of less than 2%)! Unlimited credit is a statists utopian dream, the fallout is a nightmare .....

"Sir John Templeton. In a rare interview, Sarasota investor Gary Moore met the legendary (and elderly) Sir John Templeton, in the Bahamas. Read this slowly: Sir Templeton "has never been more bearish" on the U.S. markets and economy.[9] He is 92 years old. That means he is older than the Federal Reserve, i.e. he wasn't even this bearish during the Great Depression. He is an insider, you need to listen to this man; he founded the legendary Templeton Fund, and is a spokesman for The Bank. He is warning investors to get out of U.S. stocks and real estate, and says to buy bonds, but not U.S. bonds. He "believes the dollar will lose 40 percent of its value against foreign currencies in the coming months" and "will cause the Chinese and Japanese, who own 36 percent of all U.S. foreign debt, to sell their bonds and mortgage obligations and take their money out of the country." Several months later in July, Sir Templeton made a seemingly outrageous statement that real estate would plunge 90%."
Federal_Reserves
(09/15/2004; 16:41:16 MDT - Msg ID: 124460)
Everyone knows the game
The FED is jacking up interest rates now to have the ability and bullets in the holster to forestall the coming financial storm hurricane with rate hikes. I think they want to get to at least 2% to have some rate cut reserves. They are moving slowly only because they don't want to scare everyone and jerk the economy into a complete standstill before the hurricane even arrives. Once the economy starts to tip into recession, and many things indicate the slow patch is really a slippery slope into recession (ERCI leading indicators, retail sales), they'll pull the rip cord on rate cuts in hopes blostering confidence. That will be the moment of truth, the eye of the hurricane will pass over, things will look calm, then the other side will hit and we will collapse the debt bubble.



USAGOLD Daily Market Report
(09/15/2004; 16:41:16 MDT - Msg ID: 124461)
Page Update!
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Daily Gold Market Report has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.

--- closing market excerpts ---

Comex Gold futures shrugged off the sturdier posture of the U.S. dollar Wednesday and held firm in a $404.70 to $407 range thanks to supportive influence of firm oil prices and concerns of economic fallout from Hurricane Ivan.

The most-active Dec contract settled 70 cents lower at $406.80.

The U.S. dollar climbed to five-day highs against the euro and was up substantially on the U.S. dollar index after better-than-expected news on U.S. manufacturing and climbs in U.S. business inventories. A stronger U.S. currency usually sparks selling in dollar alternatives such as gold, but holders of bullion so far remain reluctant to sell given the potential for Hurricane Ivan to cause widespread economic damage and disrupt oil supplies as it bears down on the U.S. Gulf coast.

"The oil market is pricing in disruptions and uncertainty, and so is gold. It's not going to fall in this environment," said a dealer with a precious metals refining and trading firm.

Market watchers said the fact that gold has decoupled from the euro and remained solid despite euro weakness against the dollar could well be viewed as a positive sign by some speculators and may attract follow-through buying over the near term. "It can be a good sign when gold starts doing its own thing," said a floor dealer with a large U.S. commission house....

----(see url for access to full news, 24-hr newswire)----
Gandalf the White
(09/15/2004; 16:51:37 MDT - Msg ID: 124462)
THANK YOU, Sir Boilermaker !!!
You "paint" such vivid pictures with your thoughts !
I feel sorry for those in the path of Ivan.
GW
Remarx
(09/15/2004; 16:57:04 MDT - Msg ID: 124463)
re JM Keynes
http://www.hindu.com/2004/01/18/stories/2004011800181400.htmMy 2 cents on TownCrier's message #124456 that stated, a little too optimistically I think:

"the capitalistic system [has].. elegantly and automatically moderated into something tolerable rather than spiraling into some form of wicked tyrannical control of the many by the few."

Would that it were true. Two examples that come to mind --the Powell/Gartman interchange on GATA, and the fabrication of reasons for war-- seem to prove otherwise.

The few have the controls for this system too.

As Ms. Roy shows (see link), some of us are just special turkeys chosen by the elite --like Mr. Gartman?

Cheers,
-R
TownCrier
(09/15/2004; 17:05:20 MDT - Msg ID: 124464)
Sample from the USAGOLD newswire...
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000081&sid=a3HujqM.HfKs&refer=australiaHEADLINE: Gold May Reach 15-Year High on Dollar, GFMS Says (Update1)

Sept. 15 (Bloomberg) -- ...GFMS Ltd., a London-based precious-metals research group ... forecast in a report ... prices will probably rise after the U.S. presidential election...

"We expect concerns to grow that the status quo is untenable," Philip Klapwijk, GFMS's managing director, said in an e-mailed statement. "This could easily trigger a surge in gold investment."

Prices may exceed $430 as a weakening dollar prompts investors to buy gold to hedge against further declines in U.S. assets, Klapwijk said.

A lower dollar also makes dollar- denominated gold cheaper to buy with other currencies. Gold rose 20 percent in 2003 as the dollar fell that much against the euro.

...A victory by Democratic challenger John Kerry in the U.S. presidential election in November may accelerate the dollar's decline, GFMS said. Republican President George W. Bush last week led Kerry, a U.S. Senator from Massachusetts, by 6 percentage points in a Newsweek poll...

"A Kerry victory could act as a catalyst," GFMS said. "Either way, a market depreciation in the dollar and an expected surge in gold investment look likely to take place as both deficits have continued to balloon."

The U.S. current account deficit, which measures trade and investments, grew to $166.2 billion in the second quarter, in part because of higher oil prices, the Commerce Department said yesterday in Washington. The Congressional Budget Office forecast last week that the federal budget deficit will reach $422 billion in the year ending Sept. 30.

At the current pace, the U.S. needs to attract about $1.8 billion a day to finance the current account deficit and keep the value of the dollar steady.

## Official-sector [central bank] gold sales may fall about 30 percent...

## Demand from fabricators, including jewelers, is expected to grow faster in the second half...

## Mine production will probably drop...

## Implied net disinvestment, or estimated selling by speculators, will probably decline to 65 tons from 143 tons...

## Scrap supplies may fall by 20 percent...

## Mining companies will probably buy back about 200 tons of gold previously sold forward...

-----(from url)-----

From a fundamental viewpoint, the bright glow you perceive just over the horizon is coming from a very small and very tight physical gold market. Imagine what happens if the derivative gold lubricant loses some of its reliants' confidence?

We'll all trade in an ounce or two and be cooling our toes at a sandy beach in the Caribbean so as to more easily avoid telling our friends, "I told you so".

R.
TownCrier
(09/15/2004; 17:24:19 MDT - Msg ID: 124465)
Remarx, the answer was meant to be seen from relative perspective than absolutism
My comments were to be pinned on corkboard among the specimens of national misery, privation and squalor in all occurrances where other systems have been tried to ill effect. Victimization from those several lame reorgination attempts in the _name_ of capitalism belong also on the corkboard, but labelled as the rot of another species, not that of Capitalismus properensis.

Again, it would be foolhardy to expect or demand perfection on earth, so we have to remind ourselves from time to time that we really deal in perspectives and possibilities rather than idealized potentials.

My < 2� worth.

R.
Remarx
(09/15/2004; 17:35:40 MDT - Msg ID: 124466)
TownCrier: Point Taken
I see what you mean. Relatively speaking a market economy does generally seem better, at least for us --although I think the victims of our particular system mostly reside elsewhere on the planet where they and the oppression are not as visible. But I guess that's a little off topic.

Not sure who the victims are with respect to the control of the gold price, other than goldbugs. Any thoughts on that?
TownCrier
(09/15/2004; 17:41:47 MDT - Msg ID: 124467)
Ivan == We're all tapped out. With what will we pay the Federal Disaster Declaration bill?
http://money.cnn.com/2004/09/15/news/economy/ivan_losses/index.htmHEADLINE: Ivan's dollar punch getting stronger

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - The best case scenario just got worse for Hurricane Ivan, according to a company that projects the dollar punch of the third major hurricane in the last five weeks.

Risk Management Solutions, which does catastrophe modeling estimates for the insurance industry, now projects the storm will cause damages of between $4 billion and $10 billion. That lower estimate would be enough to make the storm among the five most costly in U.S. history. The upper end of the loss estimate would make it the nation's second most costly storm behind only Hurricane Andrew in 1992.

...The claims information is not yet available from Hurricane Frances, which hit Florida's Atlantic Coast over the Labor Day weekend. RMS's loss estimate from Frances is $3 billion to $6 billion, while another catastrophe modeling firm, AIR Worldwide, estimates losses of between $5 billion to $10 billion...

----(from url)----

In the great book of history, it is not only the funding of large-scale conflicts among men that lure nations ever toward the printing presses of irredeemable fiat currencies, but also the insidious socialization of everything, including such things as bank failures and the costs of natural disasters of all types.

Restore a little rugged-individualism, common-sense and privatization to your life. Choose gold ownership.

R.
otish mountain
(09/15/2004; 17:44:33 MDT - Msg ID: 124468)
Model Building
Dollar Bill;
What tends to happen when going about building a model is that invariably one ends up sniffing the glue.

With 30+ years of design and building of the Euro model there has been much fresh air to overcome the effects of the glue.

Granted like all fiat models of the past and probably this new model political abuse will prevail.

What is different with this model is the exclusion of gold as an integral part of the fiat system. Not an oversight of the model builders from too much glue.

As Smeogal so aptly said yesterday 'Debt must be for once and for all separated from wealth'
TownCrier
(09/15/2004; 17:58:11 MDT - Msg ID: 124469)
Remarx
Regarding that question, a good post a while ago on the particular victims and champions of the gold price containment was provided by Aristotle, which I thought thorough enough in scope and timeless appeal to merit an eventual write-up on one of my Golden Chalkboard pages. I had at the time copied it into my back-burner file of things to cook up as time eventually might allow. Your question will possibly prove to be the spark I needed to get a fire going under it and a few others -- including a good diversification discussion by our very own MK. I'll see what all I can dig out and get posted up in the next day. That particular file has been growing for a while, so I'm sure it's well overdue for a degree of processing and thinning.

R.
Remarx
(09/15/2004; 19:31:16 MDT - Msg ID: 124470)
@TownCrier
Sounds interesting. Thanks!
Boilermaker
(09/15/2004; 19:46:43 MDT - Msg ID: 124471)
Remarx (9/15/04; 17:35:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 124466
Suppression of the gold price is like putting a stuffed canary in the coal mine or not reporting the hurricane on the horizon. It will cause many to suffer who might otherwise seek safety.
Goldendome
(09/15/2004; 19:59:32 MDT - Msg ID: 124472)
@ Federal Reserves: The Fed's ammo ain't what it was!

Sir Federal Reserves: I hesitate to tinker with your hurricane theory of the economy, but have to ask: are we facing a new hurricane, or are we in fact, now, in the eye of a hurricane that we first entered in year 2000, and now, being buffeted by the approaching backside eye-wall?

The reason I ask: before the financial hurricane hit, the fed had raised short term rates to + or - 6%. They have spent 4 years, roughly, ratcheting them back down to what, 3/4%? A drop of over 5%. Now, as you point out, if they slowly raise them back to 2% (and I doubt they get that high as the gale force winds are already blowing, as you so correctly point out) then that only leaves two rounds of ammo left in the belt, as compared to the 6 rounds when the hurricane first hit. This is why I ask if we haven't just been in the eye of the hurricane, as the Fed. has really had no chance or opportunity to escape their predicament and bolster defenses adequately...it's as if they only had opportunity to run outside for a few minutes to place a few more screws in the plywood protecting their weakened fortress!

When the next financial disaster hits, we may be facing that theoretical "Liquidity Trap". The Fed. doesn't have six percent to fire in defense; they only have two! They can take rates to 0% and will have moved down less than half what they did between 2000 and 2003. What can they do next if they make the money available, but no one wants to borrow? Pay the borrowers to borrow?
-------
The major banks should really have some fun with the carry trade as short term rates approach zero. Imagine, the foreigners decide to take some money home. So, short term rates the big boys borrow from the fed are at say, an eighth of a point; and they turn around and try to lend that money then for say ten years at 10 percent? A healthy profit. That is, unless your hurricane has blown everything away that stood before it!
Ned
(09/15/2004; 20:34:46 MDT - Msg ID: 124473)
Chris Powell
That reply to Gartman is awesome. As good or better than the Sprott Report in fact! GATA is going to save the world!

Thanks.
White Hills
(09/15/2004; 21:57:46 MDT - Msg ID: 124474)
Real Estate Market
Over the last three or four years I have posted several times about the Bubble in the Real Estate Market, You know the one that isn't there. Here is another. Las Vegas, Nevada, the time right now. House purchased 1 1/2 years ago for $515,000 and recently refinanced and appraised at$1,080,000 and in that developement there are no houses for sale. I can't believe it. It doesn't make any sense, it is a market gone insane. By the way the whole transaction took 2 weeks and the loan closed. Any Dollars you have laying around buy gold I have a feeling that the party is about over and you don't want to be the one that ends up with nowhere to sit.

It reminds of the time in the mid 80's in Mexico where if you got a pay check you had to do one of two things; spend it that day or put it in the Bank where they were paying double digit interest. If you held it to the next day you would lose a significant amount of value because of the high inflation White Hills
Pizz
(09/15/2004; 22:05:18 MDT - Msg ID: 124475)
Expect the Unexpected
Not weighing too much on seasonality of PM's this fall and winter.

Increasing positions based on dollar cost averaging over next year or so.

Still appears to me more of a replay of 70's, where last half of decade makes us all winners.

No fundamentals for dollar, but will be the biggest fight going down world has ever seen. Hard to kill an elephant with a shotgun, but fundamentals are the amunition, and there is trillions of firepower.

Big ticket retail battening down the hatches for a long cold winter. Best PTB can hope for is massinve propping for as long as they can with the hope and prayer they can prop sideways to slightly down and let time cure personal and corporate debt problems thru paydowns over time. 50 - 50 chance IMHO, and thats pretty bad for the biggest powerhouse in the world (dollar).

Pizz

PS. Hey Gandy - I'm back out of the country and in the rat race of the big city again. Memory recalls you to be somewhere around Issaquah???? If so, name a watering hole and a time, love to meet you. Sammamish is close isn't it? (Smile)
Chris Powell
(09/15/2004; 22:14:46 MDT - Msg ID: 124476)
Thanks, Ned ...
... for your kind comment about
GATA's reply to Dennis Gartman.

I don't know if GATA is going to
save the world but sometimes it
is fun trying.

AngloGold has not been my favorite
mining company, but a few years ago
its CEO, Bobby Godsell, who has been
awfully cordial to GATA despite our
differences, made a remark that has
stuck with me. Godsell said: "We
want a good gold price in a good
world."

For no amount of gold and silver will
save us in a world of bankruptcy,
fascism, anarchy, and terror. So gold
and silver bugs aren't and can't be
survivalist nuts, seeking vindication
in catastrophe.

We know something of what has to be
done to avoid it, and that has to be
urgently shared. As always thanks to
our gracious host for facilitating
that.
Mr Gresham
(09/15/2004; 22:52:27 MDT - Msg ID: 124477)
Mr Moto
http://www.prudentbear.com/bearschat/bbs_read.asp?mid=218858&tid=218858&fid=1☆t=1&sr=1&sb=1&snsa=A#M218858speaks out in this PruBear thread -- a Fed-watcher's Fedwatcher, usually a man of few words, and a Bear of great insight...

(also checking to make sure my posting code is still healthy, before the precarious switch over to a new computer...seems I lose something every time I try to "improve" things)

Hi Pizz!
Spartacus
(09/16/2004; 03:32:30 MDT - Msg ID: 124478)
The Fed
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1095269452.php
The Federal Reserve - Its Origins, History & Current Strategy By Wayne N. Krautkramer

--Few perceive the truth about the Federal Reserve. Rare are those who know its origins. It is right in front of us, but our relative ignorance of economics and history is their protection. A quick history lesson is in order. --




RobotGuy
(09/16/2004; 08:12:38 MDT - Msg ID: 124479)
Hey Kids!!
Thought I'd drop in for a peek! It's been a while for me now, (I guess I've got a lot of backreading to do). I don't know what the current sentiment is in here right now, but my internal RoboSense is telling me that we're on the threshold of a dramatic increase in POG. I've been busy paying off debt, and I'm getting worried that I may not have enough time to add to my petit collection of the yellow stuff.

Gold will reign, I just wish it would rain gold!


Cheers!

Your friendly neighborhood RobotGuy.
968
(09/16/2004; 08:23:40 MDT - Msg ID: 124480)
Russian Central Bank statement.
http://www.interfax.ru/e/B/0/26.html?id_issue=10703253Russian Central Bank adds gold and foreign currencies to reserves.
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(09/16/2004; 09:46:18 MDT - Msg ID: 124481)
Is there any Finnish blood in your veins? Proudly add Finnish gold to your portfolio!
http://www.usagold.com/gold/special/Markkaa.html

Finland goldFinland goldSeptember Buyers' Group
crown
Finland Grand Duchy 20 Markkaa Gold Coins

Offered here for the first time in our 30-yr history!

Speaking of history -- Lapps, Finns, Swedes, and Russians have all had a hand at ruling the region, but these choice uncirculated coins are a powerfully enduring legacy that's now yours to command. Order yours today!
1-800-869-5115 Ext. 110

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(09/16/2004; 09:49:38 MDT - Msg ID: 124482)
What you need to know before you buy your first ounce of gold...
http://www.usagold.com/cpm/AboutCPM.html

Q. What makes USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals different from its competitors in terms of its interaction with clients?

MK. Our business philosophy allows us to take a more laid-back approach. We don't employ a room full of brokers spinning the phones day and night. We don't have multi-million dollar advertising expenses dictating what kind of advice we give clients. This is all by choice. I decided long ago that I didn't want the headaches that go with managing a large number of brokers and the support staff and facilities required. At the same time, we get hundreds of requests each month for introductory information packets. We do not make cold calls. We do not work mailing lists. We do not call people at all hours of the day or night. We do not use marketing and sales gimmicks -- leaders, bait and switch, and the rest of it. We primarily work with clients who have discovered us, like what they see, and want to form a long term relationship with a reputable and reliable gold firm.

Q. Does the "laid-back approach" limit your business?

MK. Yes and no. In the short run, "yes." In the long run, "no." We probably lose a few prospects to the aggressive companies which use hard-sell tactics but we will not be changing our client-friendly approach. We know that not every prospective investor is going to become a client of USAGOLD / Centennial. However, we know that the client who chooses us is likely to be the type of client we are accustomed to doing business with. We work with a large number of professional people and business owners -- active, retired and semi-retired. In fact, we work with clientele that span the economic spectrum and all walks of life. Getting back to how our approach sets us apart from our competitors, we get quite a few disgruntled high net worth clients who come to us after being run through the mill by some of the boiler-room operations I've referred to earlier. They are usually grateful that they found us.

Q. And finally, is there anything else you would like to share with us?

MK. Fundamentally, we believe that we are here to serve the client. Anyone who has done business with us will vouch for the courteous and professional service he or she has received. Our staff is carefully chosen and it shows. We get referrals on nearly a daily basis and are kept busy with strong repeat business. I would also like to call attention to the solid informational services offered at this website. We believe that any of our clients or visitors will find USAGOLD head and shoulders above anything else out there. I would encourage anyone attending this site to have a look around. We also publish a very handy e-mail newsletter available to prospective clients. Above and beyond that, the most important thing is the way we treat our clientele. From first inquiry through order fulfillment, we want to make the gold investing experience as pleasant and rewarding as possible. We have a large and satisfied clientele and that's the way we want to keep it.

TownCrier
(09/16/2004; 09:59:33 MDT - Msg ID: 124483)
MK's Private Client Letter...
http://www.usagold.com/privateclientletter.htmlHere are a couple back issues for your reading pleasure. (see url)

Best of all, there's no reason to miss out on the more timely, fresh-weekly updates. Clients receive them automatically, and prospective clients, too, can receive them for a limited time simply by making their request for USAGOLD-Centennial's FREE information packet -- everything you need to know to take your first steps in the gold market with grace and confidence!

Request yours today.

R.
Federal_Reserves
(09/16/2004; 12:50:28 MDT - Msg ID: 124484)
Shocking comment
1:51PM Fed official says US may have to deal with increases inflation and unemployment : Federal Reserve Governor Gramlich spoke in Kansas City, saying that to some extent oil price increases are permanent and that the Fed may have to "accept some temporary rise in both inflation and unemployment. "
Cometose
(09/16/2004; 13:01:18 MDT - Msg ID: 124485)
Spot market open
It's still open and we're at 12:10 mountain time
What is going on ...............
Anyone know what is going on ?
Belgian
(09/16/2004; 13:11:07 MDT - Msg ID: 124486)
Vienna - OPEC
The "official" (!!!) price-stability (inflation) since 1970 (former oil crisis) is a factor x 10 in the US and Euroland as well. But how relevant is this x10 price-inflation ?
The more I'm trying to grasp the real economic/financial/monetary-complex...the more I do realise it is not an easy cake to come to "general" conclusions.

The economic-complex >>> PRICING POWER + BUYING POWER >>> is in fact a pure "POWER" play...officially managed by "politics".
The POO and POG seem to confirm the x10 official price-inflation since 1971 ? And the pricing power (PP) equals grosso modo the buying power (BP). But this official price-inflation supposes that one lives today as one lived in 1971. This is only theoretically possible and therefore an unrealistic assumption. The theoretical cost of living says nothing about the kind of live that one is supposed to live with a buying power that has risen as much as the official price-inflation rate of x10. (PP=BP)

Many oil-people, today in Vienna, are asked what they think the POO should be today. A: A public, official consensus of $30/per barril as a "reasonable" price. Grosso modo in line with the official price-inflation (= currency depreciation) since 1971.

But one little oil-thing struck me : OPEC (+ specific allies) are increasingly aware that their "cheap" reserves will last for the next 50 years with a high degree of certainty...and that the present building "OILPOWER" is the one who is the owner of 2/3 of these oil-reserves !
Are they going to stick in line with the officially constructed ritme of price-inflation = currency depreciation ? Or, will they (oil-power) slowly plan to catch up with Belgian's real price-inflator of x25 ? I do strongly suspect that the concentrating oil-power is NOT going to remain very co-operative for an extended period of time, if everything remains as pseudo-stable as it is percepted, today.

What happens when the Pricing Power of crude oil increases and the buying power of the oil consumers decreases...needs more currency depreciation...price inflation...political (economic)support !?
Some observers cathegorically deny such a galopping infla-possibility. They keep on thinking linear...dollar...oil...stable in line and overcoming the blips on the road to oil-shortage-exhaustion.

Inflation (deflation) in general (PP-BP) should be measured on the "quality" of life then (1971) and now. Very difficult to compare apples with apples, here. Also very difficult for those who have to decide on the "supply-side" of crude oil that serves the global (globalizing) economy....with its changing polarities !

The events that produced the $-POO spikes in the seventies, were "experienced" as very disturbing-unsettling. Everything calmed down and today we seem to be back at square one, with the same problem, but on a much higher scale. How will it turn out this time !?

What is our Western rapid evolving "service-economy" going "to serve" in the next decade !? Will the new Eastern manufacturing economy (Asians) be able to counter the oil-pricing-power with equal buying power, as we (westerners) did in the seventies !?

Thoughts ?

Cometose
(09/16/2004; 13:12:38 MDT - Msg ID: 124487)
Federal Reserves
As you aptly pointed out ............

these are shocking comments .........

WE all had a suspicion ...on account of........

the excessive lipstick ..............

the talking in dark sentences .......

the funny appearances................

and now it comes as no shock

to those of us that could see that there was an elepant in the closet and one under the carpet ................
and one in the attic ...................

that the fed has no other choice now, but to

COME OUT OF THE CLOSET!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Belgian
(09/16/2004; 13:39:32 MDT - Msg ID: 124488)
@ F-R
When the pricing power is able to increase (price-inflation) and the buying power decreases (unemployment)...we have a suffocating situation. all attention then goes to the weight of the debtberg, wich cannot be pushed forward anymore.
The debtberg comes from all those efforts of pushing up the buying power, whilst the pricing power (and their profits) of the entrepreneurs has been declining. So the experienced debut of price-inflation must come from one particular corner : oil !?

It is not only oil that searches for pricing power...but also currencies do work on power...buying power versus oil, the cause for price inflation !

How is it possible that the $-POO could stay so long above $30/b (260 days already), when the dollar remains relatively strong and has buying power !?
What happens when the buying power of the consumers (75% of the economy) declines for longer than the organized coolin-off period !? What if the dollar should have to defend its buying power with rising IRs...wich decrease the consumer's buying power at the same time ? What if all this happens with cruel oil exploiting its pricing power to the full extend ?
A rather big stewpot of "powers" we have at work here.

Most probably, Vienna was not providing what was expected ???
Cometose
(09/16/2004; 13:50:19 MDT - Msg ID: 124489)
PS
Could this be a tip off from the Fed ...........

THAT we may now SELL our Securities ............because all of their banker friends and Mutual Fund Manager brethren have already liquidated

Perhaps this is the straw that will lead to the coming slide..........CAMEL SURFING THE BIG SAND DUNE .....dow'spx,nasdq

Perhaps at this juncture in the CYCLE ,
they should be called

INSECURITIES

but only in insider(selling) circles
Federal_Reserves
(09/16/2004; 14:10:54 MDT - Msg ID: 124490)
Illegal Immigration getting some Press!
http://www.time.com/time/covers/1101040920/Asa Hutchinson last week told The Washington Times that it would be unrealistic to
say that officials would be able to reduce the number of the millions of
illegal immigrants in the country.

http://www.hillnews.com/news/09142004/tancredo.aspx


GETTING TOP PRESS NOW

http://www.time.com/time/covers/1101040920/

Voted in 2000 for importing
more foreign workers
Rep. Hutchinson voted as part of the House Judiciary Committee for H.R.4227 in 2000. This legislation would
have removed the cap on the number of H-1B visas available for three years PROVIDED THAT the worker protections
from the 1998 H-1B bill be implemented.

Although the bill would have allowed an unlimited number of H-1B visa holders into the country, thus increasing overall numbers, the legislation did contain important worker protections and fraud prevention measures. Among these provisions, H.R.4227 would have required that H-1Bs work full time and are paid more than $40,000 a year. It would also have required that employers provide the Labor Department with information about each H-1B visa holder and that information is posted on the Internet. The legislation passed the committee 18-11


Immigration plan envisions 'incentives' to illegal aliens


By Jerry Seper
THE WASHINGTON TIMES


Millions of illegal aliens in the United States would be free from arrest and deportation, have access to
tax-deferred savings accounts and Social Security credits, and get unrestricted travel to and from their
home countries under President Bush's guest-worker program.
TownCrier
(09/16/2004; 14:22:26 MDT - Msg ID: 124491)
Not about gold directly, but the info may enhance your related market understandings
http://www.futuresource.com/news/story.jsp?i=i4493849947083964480HEADLINE: LME Sees No Chance Metals Stocks To Hit Zero

LONDON (Dow Jones)--The London Metal Exchange doesn't expect metal stocks to be completely depleted as supply and demand mechanisms will even out the balance, LME executive director for regulation and compliance Diarmuid O'Hegarty told Dow Jones Newswires...

Falling levels of metal stocks in LME-registered warehouses, especially for tin, lead, copper and nickel, had led to market speculation whether stocks could eventually reach zero for any metal as demand continues to outstrip supply....

"Basic economic theory says the price will do the job, so that stocks will not go to zero. ... However if people are saying 'what if?' we don't ignore them," O'Hegarty said.

He said the LME has a special committee to monitor stock levels. "They (the LME committee) have power to be able to do what they think is prudent or appropriate at the time. I don't want to talk about things that they might do because that raises an expectation that they are waiting to do something," he added.

Asked if the LME has any plans to publish LME-grade metals in store at LME-registered warehouses which are not on warrant, O'Hegarty said the LME has no such intention at the moment but added it remains "an open issue."

[Randy's note: you may contrast this with, for example, the COMEX practice of listing eligible inventory secured in it warehouses in addition the the registered warrants. The notable part of the article is coming up in THREE... TWO... ONE...]

"You have got to be very careful of what you think you are telling them. It looks like you are telling somebody something, but actually you may not be telling them very much, or very much that is useful," O'Hegarty said.

There have also been some suggestions that less LME-grade metals would go to LME-registered warehouses if the LME publishes non-warranted metal stocks, he said.

----(from url)----

Gold in your own hand is your only sure thing. Time- and stress-tested, Mother Nature approved!

R.
USAGOLD Daily Market Report
(09/16/2004; 14:48:05 MDT - Msg ID: 124492)
Page Update!
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Daily Gold Market Report has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.

--- closing market excerpts ---

COMEX gold futures ended off Thursday in thin trading, weighed down by lower oil prices but supported by a weaker dollar after mixed U.S. economic data, dealers said.

December gold slid 30 cents to settle at $406.50 an ounce, after trading between $407.80 and $404.20.

Estimated volume was 38,000 contracts, lightened by some players staying sidelined for the Jewish new year holiday.

Gold pared losses before the close as the dollar slipped after the Philadelphia Federal Reserve's business conditions index for September was 13.4, way below the 28.5 in August and forecasts for a dip to 24.5.

...crude slipped 38 cents to $43.20 per barrel at midday after its run-up to Hurricane Ivan's assault on the U.S. Gulf Coast, as some oil rigs and refineries restarted production after the storm hit land in Alabama.

"Gold has been following oil as of late because it has moved substantially in the last few days due to the Hurricane in the Gulf, but otherwise it's been very quiet," Frank Aburto at F.C. Stone said.

----(see url for access to full news, 24-hr newswire)----

HEADLINES:

Don't Forget Inflation Impact on Retirement Income -- PLANSPONSOR.com - News

Spike in oil prices will impact on US economy: Fed official -- China View - Business

Italian consumers stage shopping strike over high Euro prices -- China View - Business

Report shows no inflation threat -- Leader-Telegram, Wisconsin - Business

Argentina's economic recovery builds steam -- Borsa Italiana - News

US dollar may devalue further -- Aljazeera.Net, Qatar - Economy

Gold shines on int'l price hike -- The Daily Star, Bangladesh - Business
TownCrier
(09/16/2004; 15:05:04 MDT - Msg ID: 124493)
Don't lose sight that this is a GLOBAL bull! (from the USAGOLD newswire)
http://www.thedailystar.net/2004/09/17/d40917050253.htmHEADLINE: Gold shines on int'l price hike

(The Daily Star, Sept 17) -- Gold price continues rising in domestic market and industry people fear the price for the first time in the country's history may cross Tk 10,000 a bhori within few months.

"The trend shows that the price is increasing almost by Tk 1,000 each year. And if such trend continues it may break all records hitting Tk 10,000 within few months," said Anwar Hossain, president of Bangladesh Jewellers Manufacturers and Exporters Association.

He said international price hike and growing local demand are major reasons for the rise in gold prices.

The market has also been witnessing gold crisis since the 9/11 incident as many countries especially Gulf states have resorted to gold reserves instead of US dollars, he said.

Sources said Bangladesh has about $2 billion informal trade with India alone and most of the payments are now being made through gold instead of US dollars due to scarcity of dollar in kerb market.

Sanjib Das, assistant sales in-charge of Goldsmith Bangladesh Ltd, a leading jewellery shop, said the rising price cannot dampen demand. "We are seeing good business despite increase in gold price," he said, adding that the price may cross Tk 10,000 mark early next year.

----(from url)---

Worth repeating -- because outside perspective counts for A LOT in assessing and shaping up your own thoughts:

***The market has also been witnessing gold crisis since the 9/11 incident as many countries especially Gulf states have resorted to gold reserves instead of US dollars, he said.***

A statement doesn't get much more frank than that.

There's no rush like a gold rush. Call USAGOLD-Centennial today and lock in good prices.

R.
misetich
(09/16/2004; 15:28:13 MDT - Msg ID: 124494)
Fed's Gramlich Says Federal Reserve Must Control Inflation in `Oil Shock'
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/economy/fedwatch.htmlSnip:

Sept. 16 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve may be willing to accept a temporary increase in unemployment by lifting interest rates as oil prices rise because the ``worst possible outcome'' would be to let inflation get out of control, Fed Governor Edward Gramlich said.

``It is virtually inevitable that shocks will result in some combination of higher inflation and higher unemployment for a time,'' Gramlich said in the text of a speech at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. ``The worst possible outcome is not these temporary increases in inflation and unemployment. The worst possible outcome is for monetary policy makers to let inflation come loose from its moorings.''
.............
``The best approach is likely to be to accept some temporary rise in both inflation and unemployment, with the increases being based on underlying objectives,'' Gramlich said. ``The rises would be temporary so long as inflation did not persistently deviate from its long-term price-stability target. But even in this preferred approach, the widely watched nominal federal fund rate would likely rise for a time.''
...........
``The price rise makes for an effective reduction in domestic income of $68 billion,'' he said. ``The effective demand reduction could be even greater.''
****************
Misetich

The 2004 Oil Shock And Awe is continuing unabated - spiralling price inflation forward

Fed is way behind the curve - IR increases -even though are insignificant as a whole, adds additional woes - will do little to curb inflation and will add significant damage to the unemployment picture and hence budget deficit

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
Cometose
(09/16/2004; 17:41:54 MDT - Msg ID: 124495)
Here's a picture of the overvalued Nasdaq / Paper
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$NDX,uu[w,a]waclyyay[pb50!b200][vc60][iUp5,3,3!La12,26,9]⪯f=GNotice the beautiful coil in the R S I
and the Macd trajectory

what wonderful symmetry
in the dome or the reverse tea cup ...........
Cometose
(09/16/2004; 17:48:36 MDT - Msg ID: 124496)
THe other side of the Coin / RYVNX
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=Ryvnx,uu[w,a]waclyyay[pb50!b200][vc60][iUp5,3,3!La12,26,9]⪯f=GNow , here's another beautiful picture of
Rydex Venture weekly chart

Notice the Coil in the RSI
and the Macd now in the opposite trajectory to the
Most imho overvalued NASDAQ index ........

Now notice where RYVNX climbed to when last the NasDUCK
dove toward its intrinsic value ............

It's absolutely breathtaking to behold the potential of
the history reflected in this chart and the capacity for history to repeat in here ...............

Could be lots of fiat in here with which to purchase more PRECIOUS>>>>>>>>>>))))))))))
melda laure
(09/16/2004; 18:27:21 MDT - Msg ID: 124497)
Half gallon notes ($500 FRN's)
What an interesting post Sir American Expression! It's a while since I've heard anyone mention the UCC. I suppose it's been changed somewhat since I see in many establishments a sign posted that they will not accept bills larger than $20. Was this loophole an original part of that bill or was it added later? Or is it merely an artifact of the way that transactions are made (you cant pump until you pay- and if you cant pay in twenties then I wont let you pump.)

I seem to remember seeing a 500 euro note pictured somewhere. I doubt if I could tell a real one from a fake. At least I know what a real 1 oz looks like.

Reminds me of a little tale Mr Clemens wrote a while back. "The 20,000 pound note" or something or other.
Boilermaker
(09/16/2004; 18:41:47 MDT - Msg ID: 124498)
Gandy & Pizz
Sir Gandy; Thanks for your kind words from yesterday.

Sir Pizz; Good to see you back at the table. I thought you had disappeared into the mountain sunset panning for gold. I guess you can take the boy out of the city but you can't take the city out of the boy! ;)
Stay in touch with us with your street smarts and views on the real world as seen by Pizz.

ski
(09/17/2004; 01:56:49 MDT - Msg ID: 124499)
Silver mining mutual funds...

From an un-official source.... Two silver mining mutual funds are now up and running.

As I recall, we have not had a silver mining mutual fund since the Lexington Strategic Silver fund merged with its gold sister fund in the 1990's.

Investor interest in silver just continues to grow.
968
(09/17/2004; 03:10:32 MDT - Msg ID: 124500)
Rude awakening is feared as central bankers stay positive
http://news.ft.com/cms/s/1ba2b7ee-081d-11d9-9d00-00000e2511c8.htmlSNIP : "Another explanation is that Mr Trichet has discovered that rosy talk is a good way to stop European Union politicians interfering in monetary policymaking. "Talking the economy up is a way of deflecting political pressure to be soft on rates," says Holger Schmieding, European economist at Bank of America.But central bank governors' refusal to share the gloom of financial markets might simply reflect their modus operandi. Larry Meyer, a former Fed governor and founder of the consultancy Macroeconomic Advisers, says policymakers and forecasters operate according to two rules.
Rule one, he says, is: when the data disconfirm your forecast, stick with the forecast and ignore the data. Rule two: know when to say enough is enough and change the forecast.
"When I turn on my computer I get clients asking if it is time to switch to rule two," he says. "For now, there is enough in the data for the Fed to stick to rule one."-- END SNIP
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Even former Federal Reserve Governor Larry Meyer is joking with our Central Bankers' forecasts.
Stick with the facts :
- Last week a Fed governor said the US$ has to depreciate to minimize federal budgets.
- Last week Alan Greenspan said the the country owes more to retirees than the economy will ever have the ability to deliver.
- Yesterday Fed governor Gramlich said that to some extent oil price increases are permanent and that the Fed may have to "accept some temporary rise in both inflation and unemployment. "
968
(09/17/2004; 03:13:06 MDT - Msg ID: 124501)
CORRECTION.
- Last week a Fed governor said the US$ has to depreciate to minimize budget deficits.
968
(09/17/2004; 03:59:19 MDT - Msg ID: 124502)
A quicksand of debt
http://www.libertarian.to/NewsDta/templates/news1.php?art=art716SNIP : "The worst conceivable scenario would be a combination of present monetary and fiscal policies together with an explosion of American protectionism. Present policies alone may lead to an abrupt fall of the dollar and all its dire consequences. To block readjustment by sheltering domestic industries from foreign competition would make matters worse. To exclude certain imports or impose new duties on imports from creditor countries undoubtedly would be popular with protected industries but highly contentious in creditor countries. For a debtor to strike at his creditors always is ill advised and unwise; it may spell the end of the world dollar standard."
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A brief article by H.F. Sennholz that summarizes the dollar problems and the eventual outcome.
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(09/17/2004; 10:17:45 MDT - Msg ID: 124503)
Treat yourself to a 'remarkkaable' coin...
http://www.usagold.com/gold/special/Markkaa.html

Finland goldFinland goldSeptember Buyers' Group
crown
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USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(09/17/2004; 10:20:47 MDT - Msg ID: 124504)
What you need to know before you buy your first ounce of gold...
http://www.usagold.com/cpm/AboutCPM.html

Q. How does USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals position itself among its competitors with regard to credibility, reputability and pricing?

MK. USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals has always been considered one of the most reputable firms in the business and it's always been that way. We have placed literally thousands of ounces of gold with investors and our repeat business and referrals are both very strong. That doesn't happen unless you know what you are doing and your clients know that you know what you are doing. If I were to sum it up, I would say we combine the first rate services and research that you would expect from a very large firm with the favorable pricing you would expect from a smaller, client-conscious firm.

TownCrier
(09/17/2004; 10:59:15 MDT - Msg ID: 124505)
Worth repeating yet again... from yesterday's posted article:
http://www.thedailystar.net/2004/09/17/d40917050253.htm
"The market has also been witnessing gold crisis since the 9/11 incident as many countries especially Gulf states have resorted to gold reserves instead of US dollars, he said."

A frank comment on a subject that you just don't hear about from our media.

Keep yourself informed with the USAGOLD global newswire, and keep your savings secure with gold from USAGOLD's small team of friendly staff. 1-800-869-5115 Ext. 100

R.
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(09/17/2004; 11:01:50 MDT - Msg ID: 124506)
When in the Course of Human Events it becomes Necessary to Protect your Savings from a Dissolving Currency...
http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html

Arm yourself with knowledge
The Priest
(09/17/2004; 11:15:42 MDT - Msg ID: 124507)
Question on silver deliveries
Hi,

I'm new to this site so please be gentle.

Could anyone please show me where I can find data on who the stoppers and issuers of silver are?

Also is there a source of historic data for COMEX warehouse stocks? I e-mailed NYMEX but they didn't bother replying..!

Thanks in advance,

The Priest
North Yorkshire, UK
TownCrier
(09/17/2004; 11:33:55 MDT - Msg ID: 124508)
The Priest
http://www.nymex.com/media/delivery.pdfRegarding your first request, the hyperlinked url I've provided above will allow you to download the portable document format (pdf) file NYMEX assembles for the daily list of issuers and stoppers in copper, silver, gold, and aluminum contracts.

Regarding historic inventory data, it's nothing I've ever looked into beyond an occasional look at NYMEX daily data, so I don't know if its been tracked elsewhere or where to begin looking. Good luck.

Daily inventory data, for what it's worth, you can find at the urls below:
SILVER
http://www.nymex.com/jsp/markets/sil_fut_wareho.jsp
GOLD
http://www.nymex.com/jsp/markets/gol_fut_wareho.jsp

R.
The Priest
(09/17/2004; 11:39:46 MDT - Msg ID: 124509)
FAO:- Towncrier
Thanks for that...if I do find the historical warehouse stocks data, I'll post it here.

Regards,

The Priest
North Yorkshire, England
Gandalf the White
(09/17/2004; 12:33:08 MDT - Msg ID: 124510)
WELCOME BACK, Sir Pizz !!
and YES !!, I am available to meet with you ANYWHERE, AT ANY TIME in the "Lake Country" near Sammamish and downtown Issaquah. You pick the Starbuck's or TULLY's site. Did you buy that Castle in the China Hills of Newcastle ? I have a thousand questions for you !
<;-)
PS: a few other Goldhearts will most likely show-up at the meeting site also, to "GREET" you.
USAGOLD Daily Market Report
(09/17/2004; 13:57:08 MDT - Msg ID: 124511)
Page Update!
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Daily Gold Market Report has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.

---Gold closes solidly above $405---

Gold futures on Comex marched sideways above the $405-per-ounce level Friday in thin conditions to consolidate its holding pattern above the $400 level for the sixth consecutive day.

The most-active Dec contract settled $1.10 higher at $407.60 per ounce.

Dealers said gold continued to provide a mirror-image reflection of the U.S. dollar's movements against the euro, with the dollar's early softness allowing Dec gold to nose briefly to $409 mid-morning before the U.S. dollar's gradual climb thereafter put gold under pressure. Dec gold then uncovered some decent physical interest at the $405 low that prevented prices from slipping below there, before the sluggish tone to the U.S. dollar through the Comex afternoon helped gold level off above the $407 mark for the last hour of trading.

Spot gold held within a $403.10-407.30 channel throughout to make it four consecutive days above the $402 mark.

With additional support deemed available at $399-400 in the form of strong physical interest, market watchers agreed that spot prices will also likely find the sideways route to be the path of least resistance over the coming days.

-----(see url for access to full news, 24-hr global newswire)----
misetich
(09/17/2004; 14:49:26 MDT - Msg ID: 124512)
Fed Agencies Misrepresent Price Inflation
http://www.dailyreckoning.com/body_headline.cfm?id=4121Snip:

Gillespie Research looked a the ISM (Institute for Supply Management) July numbers and noted that "July was the 29th consecutive month of increasing prices." Those facts are as plain as the big ugly Mogambo nose on my face, and we have Gillespie to thank for making the effort of looking them up, because you know that I am not going to get off my big, fat lazy butt to do the work. But yet not a day goes by when there is not some knucklehead from the Fed, or some other government agency, or some whack-job "think tank" yahoo that gets his money from a government grant, that is not telling me with a straight face that there is no inflation, or that inflation is "tame" or that inflation is "benign" or some other lie that makes me scream ("aarrrggghhh!") in indignation at being asked to swallow such a huge bald-faced lie.
**************
Misetich

Real Price Inflation is roaring ahead multifold - The deflationary winds from the collapse of SE Asia economies in the late 90's buffered the ever growing price inflation in the service industry

That was then.

Since the US Feds - and the friendly allies "of the willing to print fiat ad infinitum- aka JAPAN" went into overdrive in the last few years, real price inflation has been imbedded itself in COMMODITIES and hence the real price inflation pipeline is gathering momentum.

The Feds emergency escape route = higher Asset inflation - housing ( It was reported this week Americans are apparently "wealthier" than ever thanks to the ever growing housing bubble.

The escape route of higher Asset Inflation (housing, stocks) to escape real price inflation and continue consumer spending - is being flooded by an unexpected oil spil.

As The 2004 Oil Shock And Awe campaign proceeds uninterrupted and poised to go into higher forward gear - higher unemployment is just around the corner -

The prospects for corporate earnings for 2005 are poor to modest at best.

Asset Price Deflation is the greatest fear. Both housing and stock prices will be challenged in the months to come as they do not reflect economic reality going forward.

A downward adjustment to both sectors is most likely - bringing more economic woes globally and hence higher amounts of fiat can be exptected to be printed

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
mikal
(09/17/2004; 14:53:57 MDT - Msg ID: 124513)
Accounting found unaccountable
http://www.etherzone.com/2004/henr091704.shtmlTHE NUMBERS GAME
FRAUD AT THE HIGHEST LEVEL
By: Ed Henry

You've all heard it, $200 billion for the war in Iraq, a war we have yet to win and a war we should not be engaged in at all. Then there's the deficit for this fiscal year due to end on September 30th. Just last week, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) was telling us that the deficit would be a record breaking $422 billion. And this week they changed it to $437 billion. What's another fifteen thousand million more or less, here or there? Its just money they're talking about � your money. You've got plenty of that, haven't you?
When you are trying to live within your means, budget things, or reconcile your check book, who do you rely on? Do you ask the neighbors what they think, listen to the radio or watch television for help? Do you turn to local celebrities and entertainers, or do you rely on the bank while making certain, of course, that they have done their accounting properly?
What I'm trying to say is that in these times of misinformation and disinformation it really doesn't make much sense to listen to the mathematically challenged entertainers of television's picture and word merchants. Go right to the bank. Deal only with figures from the U.S. Treasury. Even then, you've got to understand which accounting system they're currently using.
Let's look at some indisputable facts:
On Thursday, May 22, 2003, the Treasury reported that the national debt was $25 million short of the debt limit or ceiling of $6.4 trillion (see Table III-C of the Treasury's Daily report for that date). On Friday, May 23, 2003, one day later, Congress raised the debt limit by $984 billion. They would have made it an even trillion, but decided that might raise some eyebrows.
Today, as I write this, the Treasury's Bureau of Public Debt reports that as of September 14, 2004, just short of sixteen months later, the national debt stands at $7.372 trillion. Subtract $6.4 trillion from this figure and what do you get?
George W. Bush has run up the national debt $972 billion in less than sixteen months. That's a real record. And the only thing he can do is to stall more borrowing until after the elections plus the fact that some $45 billion or so is not considered subject to the debt limit.
If we spent $200 billion on the invasion and occupation of Iraq, where did the rest of the money go? Don't you think we deserve an accounting? It certainly didn't all go into spending here at home.
To counteract this question and rise to the debt, on Sunday, September 12, the San Francisco Chronicle published a story throwing debt projections to ridiculous extremes. Based on the mythical baby-boomer generation, this article claimed that fiscal gaps could reach as much as $72 trillion. The object here from the spin masters is that if you can wrap your mind around the preposterous figure of $72 trillion then all else, particularly raising the useless and silly debt limit another trillion, will seem like a bargain.
Here's another one:
The $437 billion record deficit that the CBO is now predicting for fiscal 2004 does not include the money the government borrowed/stole/pilfered from Social Security and other entitlements. And the reason it doesn't is that they're using "over budget" accounting to determine this deficit. The entitlement money was already figured into the budget as "off budget" revenue.
At other times, when it's to their advantage, the same bureaucrats will use the "unified budget" way of accounting that was invented by the Johnson administration and illustrates "off budget" revenue. This is usually done when we have a surplus.
In fiscal 2000, the last year of the Clinton administration, we had a $237 billion surplus, the largest in U.S. history. In fiscal 2001, under the new Bush administration, we had a $127 billion surplus, the second largest in U.S. history and despite the fact that 9/11 occurred in the last month of the fiscal year.
The spin masters will point to these surpluses to claim that they "balanced the budget" or even "paid down the national debt" despite the fact that the debt went up $18 billion in fiscal 2000.
The one thing that these crafty crooks will never do is to tell you where these surpluses came from:
If we added the stolen 2004 entitlement overcharges to the CBO's $437 billion estimate, we would be close to if not well over $600 billion for a true deficit this year.
The government has but one major source of income � your taxes � and operates on a pay-me-now or pay-me-later basis. Running up the national debt merely places a greater burden on future taxpayers.
We currently have 138 million working people and 8 million who cannot find jobs. And, believe me, not all of these workers are income taxpayers. Some do not have jobs making enough to qualify for personal income taxes. This is the main reason for our "open borders" and Bush's plans to give amnesty to hard working Mexicans. More taxpayers, even though it's the way our country was infiltrated by nineteen law-breaking illegals that trained in our country to bring us 9/11.
But all legally registered workers pay payroll taxes. If consumer spending is one of the ways to improve a sour economy, Bush could have cut payroll tax overcharges long ago. Instead, we have the leader of the Federal Reserve and the President's financial advisor telling us that we need to work beyond retirement age in order to preserve the system. All while Social Security and other entitlements produce a "surplus" that the government steals to squander elsewhere.
The Social Security trust funds, that hold no viable assets, now stands at more than $1.6 trillion and accounts for more than 22 percent of the national debt. Imagine what this money might have done if invested properly or returned to workers.
The spin surrounding this rip-off ranges from accounting that labels more than 40 percent of the national debt as "Intragovernmental Holdings" and pretends that the "government owes itself." Somehow, this implies that debt can be redeemed without taxpayer money. Wouldn't it be nice if every member of Congress were held responsible for this $3 trillion debt and had to pay for it from their own pockets?
At the other extreme, we have Starbucks, the right wing coffee merchant, running ads that "success is not an entitlement, it must be earned" implying that your retirement insurance premiums were to receive some sort of gift, welfare, or form of socialism when an entitlement is really a payment you've made for a specific service or goods that you're "entitled" to receive. Dedicated money that's not supposed to be spent elsewhere.
How long are you going to put up with this crap? We should be boycotting Starbucks and getting rid of a government that screws us. Even John Kerry, as a member of the Senate Finance Committee, knows exactly what's been going on and will do nothing to stop it. The lesser of two evils is still evil.

"Published originally at EtherZone.com : republication allowed with this notice and hyperlink intact."
Ed Henry is the founder of TUFF, the Taxpayers Union, and a regular columnist for Ether Zone.
Ed Henry can be reached at ctzcrank@mindspring.com
Ed's FREE pamphlet-"To The Moon, Alice" the national debt, your Social Security, and the Pay-It-Again Sam scam.
We also invite you to visit his website at www.uncle-scam.com
Published in the September 17, 2004 issue of Ether Zone.
Copyright � 1997 - 2004 Ether Zone.
ski
(09/18/2004; 02:06:38 MDT - Msg ID: 124514)
Another silver miner to hold bullion??

This evening at another site, I read a statement that yet another silver miner is now considering "holding some cash in the form of silver bullion."

Earlier this year, one of the bigger silver players became the first to buy and hold silver bullion in its account. This thoughtful action was very well recieved in the PM investment community and now we have another player considering same. IMHO, this is an exciting development for the silver advocates who gather here.

misetich
(09/18/2004; 06:27:48 MDT - Msg ID: 124515)
The Coming Pensions Crunch
http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/sep2004/nf20040915_8863.htmSnip:

US Airways' bankruptcy points to a wider problem: Corporate America hasn't been meeting pension-fund obligations
..................
BAILING OUT. The airlines, along with steel companies, auto makers, and a number of other Rust Belt manufacturers, have been struggling with these costs for years. Now other problems, including high fuel costs and a hypercompetitive marketplace, have made coming up with the cash for these payments that much harder.

Vaughn Cordle, an analyst with Airline Forecasts, calculates that the top seven airline pensions are underfunded by $20.5 billion. By his math, United Airlines would have to pay $820 million a year for the next five years to fill its pension gap. That's equal to 6% of the airline's expected 2004 revenue. Delta Air Lines (DAL ), which many worry could be the next to go, would have to put in $754 million a year for five years, 5% of its expected revenue.
.................
The PBGC can't handle all that seems to be headed its way. The agency has its own deficit of $9 billion to $15 billion, depending on the calculation. The PBGC, which is funded by insurance premiums levied on all participating plans and which also absorbs what assets are in a pension plan when it takes one over, has long been arguing for stronger funding requirements. On Sept. 14, Representative John Boehner (R-Ohio), chairman of the House Education & Workforce Committee, joined in, called for "comprehensive reform" of the pension laws.
***************
Misetich

Corporate America hasn't been meeting pension-fund obligations.....underfunded pensions-plans are estimated over $300 billion and be much much higher WHEN the stock market values adjust downwards to reflect economic reality of slower economic growth and single digits earnings growth

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
misetich
(09/18/2004; 07:12:28 MDT - Msg ID: 124516)
S&P warns UK banks at risk from economic slowdown
http://business.scotsman.com/economy.cfm?id=1090842004&20040918133547Snip:

STANDARD & Poor's, the global rating agency, warned yesterday that the prospect of an economic slowdown threatens to drive down earnings at European banks, with those in the UK potentially among the worst-affected.

"The only-gradual economic recovery, in a context of geopolitical uncertainty and a high oil price, might not be sufficient to avoid a slowdown in banks� earnings growth," said S&P in a report.

UK banks were singled out by S&P for their vulnerability to rising interest rates and high house prices.

"The UK [banking system] is arguably more exposed to a hard-landing scenario than many peers, due to its history of pronounced credit cycles and structural features," said S&P analyst Richard Barnes.

Coinciding with the report came news that the UK's Co-operative bank saw first-half pre-tax profits fall 7 per cent to �70.1 million.

The Co-op said efforts to develop its residential mortgage portfolio had resulted in "a short-term drag on profitability". The bank added that it could fall victim to rising interest rates, hiked five times since November.
***********
Misetich

The 2004 Oil Shock And Awe is being underestimated by the markets.

Firstly - current oil and energy prices will likely go MUCH HIGHER than current levels - as geopolitical tensions highten in coming months -

Geopolitical hot spots:

Iraq oil pipelines sabotages ( Hostilities are intnsifying - already over 50 US GI's have lost their life in the month of September)

Saudi Arabia - US relations are souring -

-latest indication - Friday U.S. criticism of religious constraints in the kingdom ( prominent Sunnis and Shi'ites rejected Friday U.S. criticism of religious constraints in the kingdom, saying the cradle of Islam had a duty to uphold its own faith........Saleh al-Fawzan, senior Sunni preacher and member of Saudi Arabia's appointed top religious body -- the Supreme Association of Ulema -- condemned the United States as an "infidel" country."

http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/nm/20040917/wl_nm/religion_saudi_dc_1

China-Taiwan

Taiwan Said Set to Buy $15 Billion of U.S. Arms

....how will China retaliate?

Russia-Georgia

Russian threats alarm Georgia

Georgians are concerned that Moscow will try to link the school siege in Beslan to Georgia and will carry out its threat of preventive strikes in Georgia, which shares borders with Russia's troubled republics of Ingushetia, Dagestan, North Ossetia and Chechnya.

Statements from Moscow are fuelling the fears.

Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has said he does not exclude links between Georgia's breakaway province of South Ossetia and the events in Beslan, which is only 40 kilometres (25 miles) from the Georgian border.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/3655412.stm

Middle East

Syria - Lebanon - Iran - Palestine/Israel the plot thickens

End of snips

The prospects of MUCH HIGHER OIL PRICES are almost a certainty - thus continued deceleration of global economic growth is also a certainty

How long will higher oil prices continue? Much longer than market players and optimists believe -

Higher oil prices are a sort of "chinese water economic torture"

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
misetich
(09/18/2004; 07:34:57 MDT - Msg ID: 124517)
Pipeline raids take toll in Iraq
http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/news/articles/0918iraq-oil18.htmlSnip:

BAGHDAD - The sharp rise in attacks on Iraq's oil pipelines in recent weeks has substantially impaired the country's production, dealing a blow to the economy and threatening the struggling reconstruction effort, U.S. and Iraqi officials say.

Insurgents are bombing pipelines and other parts of Iraq's oil infrastructure almost daily, another sign that security is deteriorating beyond the control of U.S. military and Iraqi security forces.
......................
Although record-high oil prices have helped compensate for the production decline, industry analysts expect Iraq to bring in far less oil revenue than the $15 billion previously projected for the year.

As a result, U.S. taxpayers might be forced to make up for shortages in revenue that Pentagon officials once promised would cover much of the reconstruction costs.
................
In an appearance before Congress in March 2003, U.S. Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz said Iraqi oil could bring in up to $100 billion over two to three years.

Just this week, however, Bush administration officials asked Congress to divert $450 million earmarked for reconstruction to increase oil production. That's on top of $1.7 billion dedicated to rebuilding the industry.

"The premise was that we'd go to Iraq, and oil would provide the money. That's not what is happening, and somebody is going to have to pay," said Gal Luft, executive director of the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security.
......................
The spread of attacks to the south has been accompanied by an increase in their sophistication, experts say. Insurgents have picked junctions of multiple lines or aging pipelines that are especially vulnerable.
**************
Misetich

Iraq's invasion is not progressing as planned. Oil production was planned to grow substantially according to Neocon Paul Wolfowitz - and presumably oil prices would have been held in the $20's range

Reality says otherwise. Iraq's invasion is proving to be costly on all fronts:

The cost of war are escalating both in economi terms and human loss of lives and injuries

For example - here's a snip from UPI

http://about.upi.com/exclusive/UPI-20040915-021124-6165R

17,000 GIs not listed as casualties

WASHINGTON, Sept. 15 (UPI) -- Nearly 17,000 service members medically evacuated from Iraq and Afghanistan are absent from public Pentagon casualty reports, according to military data reviewed by United Press International. The Pentagon said most don't fit the definition of casualties, but a veterans' advocate said they should all be counted.

In addition to those evacuations, 32,684 veterans from Iraq and Afghanistan now out of the military sought medical attention from the Department of Veterans Affairs by July 22, according to VA reports obtained by UPI. The number of those visits to VA doctors that were related to war is unknown.

The military has evacuated 16,765 individual service members from Iraq and Afghanistan for injuries and ailments not directly related to combat, according to the U.S. Transportation Command, which is responsible for the medical evacuations. Most are from Operation Iraqi Freedom.

The Pentagon's public casualty reports, available at www.defenselink.mil, list only service members who died or were wounded in action. The Pentagon's own definition of a war casualty provided to UPI in December describes a casualty as, "Any person who is lost to the organization by having been declared dead, duty status - whereabouts unknown, missing, ill, or injured."

In a statement Wednesday, the Pentagon gave a different definition that included casualty descriptions by severity and type and said most medical evacuations did not count. "The great majority of service members medically evacuated from Operation Iraqi Freedom are not casualties, by either Department of Defense definitions or the common understanding of the average newspaper reader." It cited such ailments as "muscle strain, back pain, kidney stones, diarrhea and persistent fever" as non-casualty evacuations.

"Casualty reports released to the public are generally confined to fatalities and those wounded in action," the statement said.

***********
End of snip

The combination of escalating hostilities in Iraq are adding to US budget woes, and more importantly an indirect taxation on all global economies through higher oil prices

The 2004 Oil Shock And Awe will continue longer than many expect.

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
misetich
(09/18/2004; 07:52:58 MDT - Msg ID: 124518)
Global: Productivity Endgame? S. Roach
http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20040917-fri.html#anchor3Snip:

Could it be that the days of rapid productivity growth in the US economy are finally nearing an end?

For starters, incoming data point to anemic productivity growth in the current quarter. By our latest estimates, GDP growth -- a good proxy for the output that drives the numerator in the productivity equation -- appears to be rising at about a 4% annual rate in 3Q04. At the same time, hours worked in the private economy -- a good proxy for the labor input that shows up in the denominator in the productivity equation -- is on track to rise at about a 3.25% annual rate. Moreover, with the headcount of self-employed workers likely to increase at close to a 15% annual rate in the current quarter, there is good reason to believe that growth in total hours worked could easily be in excess of 3.5%. Consequently, the gap between output growth and the increase in labor input -- a close approximation of productivity growth -- appears to be no higher than 0.5% in 3Q04. If that estimate is even close to being accurate, it would mark the weakest productivity gain of this recovery -- well below average annualized gains of 4.5% recorded over the first 11 quarters of this upturn.
......................
By sector, the bulk of the slowing appears to be concentrated in the services sector. At least, that's the implication I draw from labor market data that are pointing to relatively brisk increases in hours worked in information services, professional and business services, and the education and healthcare sectors. By contrast, the manufacturing productivity story remains impressive. The manufacturing piece of industrial production appears to be on track for a 6.0% annualized growth rate in the current period, well in excess of the 2.8% annualized increase in factory hours worked. Given the intrinsic labor-intensive bias of white-collar functions, the services sector is usually the first to fade on the productivity curve. Incoming data do little to dispel that historical pattern
....................
There is deep conviction in policy circles, financial markets, and the academic community that America's newfound productivity prowess is here to stay. My point is that that the productivity miracles of the past eight years may simply not be sustainable. To the extent they reflect transitional adjustments of unusually aggressive cost cutting and the reconfiguration of business technology platforms, the day will come when the bulk of that transition has been accomplished. There is good reason to believe that such a day could now be close at hand. Maybe, just maybe, the US productivity story is finally coming out of the clouds and nearing the end of what has been a glorious eight-year upsurge. For policy makers and investors leaning the other way, that could be a real shocker.
***********
Misetich

The end of the "productivity miracle"?

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
Waverider
(09/18/2004; 12:57:10 MDT - Msg ID: 124519)
test
test
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(09/18/2004; 13:10:50 MDT - Msg ID: 124520)
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USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(09/18/2004; 13:15:14 MDT - Msg ID: 124521)
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TownCrier
(09/18/2004; 13:31:36 MDT - Msg ID: 124522)
The end of an era: California's century-old oil economy fades
http://www.thejournalnews.com/newsroom/091804/d0118oilera.html(excerpts)
AP (September 18, 2004, BAKERSFIELD, CA) -- On a slip of flat yellow earth dotted with sagebrush and foxtail lies the rusting legacy of three generations of drilling: a graveyard of toppled oil derricks � and Bruce Holmes' solitary moneymaker.

Like a squeaky steel horse, the lone pump bucks and thumps, sapping crude from nearly a mile down.

Holmes spent 13 years' savings for the $200,000 well his brother installed a year ago. At 40 barrels a day, its haul exceeds the combined output of his 19 other aging pumps. All are older than the 64-year-old oilman, and barely yield a profit.

Holmes, who drives a dusty pickup and sports a brass belt buckle etched with his company's name � Western Production Inc. � is one of the last of the mom-and-pop oil producers in California's southern San Joaquin Valley.

"This is the end of an era," he drawls from under a Stetson-shaped hard hat.

It's a common refrain in Kern County. Just as in parts of Texas, Oklahoma and Louisiana its oil fields are slowly running dry...

...Last November, Shell Oil Co. announced it would shutter its 72-year-old refinery in Bakersfield, citing the decline in local production. Processing 70,000 barrels of local oil a day, the 400-worker refinery is one of only 13 in state that produce California's required clean-air gasoline.

The proposed shutdown sparked protests from politicians and consumers who argued the closure would hike the already-inflated tab California motorists pay for gas. Under pressure from politicians and consumers � and facing state and federal investigations � Shell announced in August it would delay the shutdown to allow more time to find a buyer.


...Forty years after gold lured prospectors to the valley in the mid-1800s, a hand-dug pit that gurgled black gold on the western bank of the Kern River ushered in a new era. Forests of wooden derricks and instant communities sprang up along a swath that, according to the Kern County Museum, would produce more wealth from oil than all the West's gold mines.


"We've been tapping into the earth full-bore since the gushers of the early 1900s," said Ron Bracken, an independent oil producer in the nearby town of Taft. "Nothing lasts forever."

...Oil has been in the Holmes family's blood since 1923, when Bruce Holmes' grandfather moved here hoping to tap a gusher. Holmes expects he'll be the last to work the family business, to love the bitter smell of crude, to fall asleep to the clamor of an active oilfield.

"It's everything I ever had," he says. "It's all gonna die with me."

------(see full story at url)-----

Choose gold to consolidate your profits and savings. Although the mines it comes from and the companies that mine it become depleted and fade away, the gold itself is a lasting legacy of real wealth.

R.
Smeagol
(09/18/2004; 15:25:49 MDT - Msg ID: 124523)
How telling, Ssir Town Crier

thiss line caught our eyeses:

"...would produce more wealth from oil than all the West's gold mines."...

...how much more sso the World's gold mines are not enough to pay for the burning of the evanescent Black flame?

S.
Dollar Bill
(09/18/2004; 21:28:09 MDT - Msg ID: 124524)
.,.
Since Misetich posted the link to the fed gov's speech a couple days ago, I can think of little else, financially speaking.......
`It is virtually inevitable that shocks will result in some combination of higher inflation and higher unemployment for a time,'' Gramlich said in the text of a speech at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. ``The worst possible outcome is not these temporary increases in inflation and unemployment. The worst possible outcome is for monetary policy makers to let inflation come loose from its moorings.''
He is talking about the coming rises in the interest rate also.
When he says "temporary"......I do believe temporary is not what we will get. To retain control of the global economy, doesnt the fed have to keep the US as the main engine of the global economy?
So a brake put to the US economy would not just cut demand, it would help keep the situation fundamentally as it is at present......the US as the driver.
I am guessing that when we reach the end of "temporary", we will find ourselves in a quite changed economy. I think we should look around today and sort of marvel at the excess that out of control fiat has given us, because now that it appears (well, to me) that the CB's of the world have all signed on to the global model with the dollar as undisputed ruler, they can apply brakes.
When the fed was fighting for solvency and sovereignty, they kept to the gold standard. When they fell in love with deficiets, who they worked for changed.
Now, in the global economy model, allegiances have been made, that put the US worker and citizen in the position of ......in effect, expendable, pawns of the new financial model.
Remember Paul Volker? If putting the brakes on the US citizen of 1980 took interest rates.......of what? How high did they get in the early eighties?
Regular joe of that time really had trouble, I think we about to see a rather ugly, long, "temporary".
goldenpeace
(09/19/2004; 09:16:17 MDT - Msg ID: 124525)
Money and Credit Aggregates...Sequential Growth?(from Doug Noland)
since 8/19 some sequential firming in YTD growth rates in Bank Credit , Asset Backed Securities, and Foreign Central Bank holdings , but nothing serious, just enough to stabilize asset prices.....yet some asset prices have risen( CRB 272.5 to 275.5, Gold 398 to 405,Oil 46 to 45.75, Dow Jones Stocks 9850 to 10250).....it'll take more serious monetary and credit pumping to advance us strongly against the potentially deflationary headwinds...unless the $ collapses as more supply from present holders comes onto the market...a perverse supply-side effect.

Category Year to Date increase% Aug 15 , Sept 19
M3 +8.9 +7.5
Savings Deposits +13.6 +13.1
Bank Credit +8.0 +9.1
Real Estate Loans +13.7 +13.7
Commercial Paper +10.6 +8.1
ABS +35 +42!
Foreign Custody +28.9 +29.6!

$ getting flooded out inevitably sooner or later, either by new supply or old
blessings
bowing
goldenpeace
Waverider
(09/19/2004; 09:32:21 MDT - Msg ID: 124526)
Iran Rejects UN Call for Uranium Enrichment Freeze
http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=topNews&storyID=6272724"Iran rejected Sunday a U.N. resolution calling on it to freeze uranium enrichment activities and threatened to stop snap checks of its atomic facilities if its case were sent to the U.N. Security Council. It said that if the Security Council went as far as punishing Tehran with sanctions, Iran might follow North Korea and pull out of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty altogether. The U.N. International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the U.N. nuclear watchdog, unanimously adopted a resolution Saturday calling on Iran to suspend all uranium enrichment-related activities.

"Iran will not accept any obligation regarding the suspension of uranium enrichment," chief nuclear negotiator Hassan Rohani told a news conference Sunday. "No international body can force Iran to do so."

Waverider: These events over the weekend will add fuel to an already explosive situation in the ME. Gold should move on this news - we'll find out when the markets open.
Gonlyold
(09/19/2004; 14:03:21 MDT - Msg ID: 124527)
$500 FRN & Transaction Parties
Melda Laure asked, "Tell me, do you forsee the following...a person (government) not a party to the transaction..." being a party to your contract?

Yes, I do and I see it now. I am concerned that the future, will even more so, hinder, then eventually forbid, everyone from entering into a transaction without that transaction going through a bank or some government clearing house.

It is difficult to avoid this now. To obtain FRN's initially you have to go to bank. When you write/cash a check it goes through a bank. When you charge items it goes through a bank.

But the real concern is that I don't think that the people in the US of A have, or had, a say in the writing or imlementation of this "law". Our congressmen no longer confer with us let alone represent us. If we did, then it shouldn't be too much of a problem to get the UCC revised to add a clause making it legal for merchants to limit the denomination of FRN's being tendered. That would help clarify or answer ML's other question (msg #124497) of, "Was this loophole [limiting $ denomination vendors must accept] an original part of that bill or was it added later?"

Then again, perhaps it would be better to void the entire 1966 Lein Act. I don't know. I speak as someone who is not familar with the act so do take some reservations with my thoughts. Perhaps even the UCC should be put before the people for scrutinizing. Who's making all these laws anyway?

Occasionally I order items off the internet. However, I only deal with vendors who will accept a money order or check. One of my last attempts to do business with one of these "virtual" companies didn't materialize when the vendor would not accept a money order or check but would only accept credit card "money" as payment. Hm-m-m-m, should I sue him for possesion of the item since I tendered an offer and he refused it? Seems like this is the issue that Am Exp (msg #124451) refered to. I'd be interested in your thoughts on this issue.


Bottom line is that I would like to keep my contracts private. I do not want to have my contracts pass through anyone but the persons that I'm entering into agreement with. And I do not want people who are against a cashless society to be looked upon as possible "drug dealers and terrorists" as DoubleEagle mentioned (msg #124445). It is becoming more difficult to maintain privacy as the world's financial systems "centralize".




Smeagol
(09/19/2004; 14:48:46 MDT - Msg ID: 124528)
http://www.usagold.com/goldenchalkboard/gc_gold-trend.htmlSsir Town Crier, thank you for possting the Euro/Dollar Management thoughts and chartses (at link above).... we were perusing them today... you mention the E350 level as important at ssome future time... is thiss because the Euro 'should' tend to sstabilize at that level, while the Dollar continues to decline... and would that not be an obvious currency-value sseparation that further convinces many to drop Dollars to pick up Euros, with all the implications that will have (at a ssomewhat later time) for the Precious? Is this the right take on thiss?

S.

P. S. we look forward to reading those other things you have ssaved and ssquirrelled away, when you have time to unroll the dussty scrolls and translate them to the Chalkboard.

P.P.S. Ssir Gonlyold, we wonders what the UCC would ssay about the ssituation a friend of ours recently experienced when he went to a Wells Fargo bank branch and tried to exchange a 20 dollar IOU for quarters. They refused - and he even has an account there! A bank without a roll of quarters?? Ssss! Maybe they don't want to redeem those even for base metals now? (cackle!) He also worked in the passt for a company that had their (corporate) accounts with the same bank, and though at the time he did not have an account there, they refused to honor his payroll check - which was drawn on that bank! Of course, when his employer found out, 'TSHTF' and the accounts were transferred to another, we are assuming, friendlier entity...
mikal
(09/19/2004; 19:27:18 MDT - Msg ID: 124529)
Headlines Roundup
Bloomberg- Dollar Advances Against Yen on Outlook for Federal Reserve Rate Increases
CNNfn- YUKOS suspends China oil exports
Bloomberg- Australia Raises Commodity Export Forecast on Increase in Oil, Coal Sales
CBS Marketwatch- Asian techs may rise; Japan markets closed MSNBC- Fed Rate Decision Unlikely To Spur Rally
ABC News- Vietnam Takes Delivery of Boeing Plane
Chicago (IL) Tribune-Business* (Reg. Required)- Enron Trial to Shine Light on Wall Street
Chicago (IL) Tribune-Business* (Reg. Required)- New life for old nuclear plants
USA Today- Japan cracks down on Citibank
MSNBC- IBM Holds Settlement Talks In Pension Case
MSNBC- Fraud Plagues Mortgage Industry, FBI Says
mas
(09/19/2004; 19:56:51 MDT - Msg ID: 124530)
From the Privateer
Global Warning Bells:
Foreign capital inflows to the US slowed to $US 265.2 Billion from $US 445.3 Billion in the first quarter.
Foreign purchases of US equities fell to $US 2 Billion from $US 4.2 Billion in the first quarter of 2004.
Foreign purchases of US Treasuries dropped to $US 35.6 Billion from $US 65.4 Billion. Purchases of US
corporate bonds increased to $US 51.5 Billion from $US 51.2 Billion. Purchases of US agency bonds
rose to $US 35.1 Billion from $US 6.7 Billion. Foreign official assets, assets held by foreign central
banks, increased $US 73.9 Billion compared with an increase to $US 127.9 Billion in the first quarter.
The KEY numbers are the ones on top of this page and the ones which lead this paragraph.
If the foreign inflow of capital goes BELOW the US current account deficit - the USA crashes.
mas
(09/19/2004; 20:00:14 MDT - Msg ID: 124531)
And last from The Privateer.
CLIMBING A MOUNTAIN OF IMBALANCES
The US has done it again, it has managed to slide itself even deeper into an
external state of indebtedness. The US current account deficit has
widened to a record $US 166.2 Billion in the second quarter from $US
147.2 Billion in the first quarter of 2004.
That's the US current account. The US deficit on goods and services also
increased to a record $US 150.3 Billion from $US 138.6 Billion in the first
quarter. These are truly enormous numbers.
Waverider
(09/19/2004; 20:07:47 MDT - Msg ID: 124532)
Yukos Slashes Exports to China
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/stories/2004/09/20/002.html"Yukos has decided to halt two-thirds of its oil exports to China, a company representative said Sunday, as the company grapples with a multibillion dollar tax claim that management says could push it into bankruptcy...Russia supplied about 8.5 percent of China's crude imports in the first half of 2004. Yukos accounts for nearly all of the country's direct exports to China."

Waverider: Thanks for the heads-up in the headlines Mikal! Gosh, could we see POO hit $50.00 this week with this news?
Druid
(09/19/2004; 20:45:05 MDT - Msg ID: 124533)
Russians Blast US-UK Sponsorship Of Chechen Terror
http://www.rense.com/general57/rusbnlt.htmSnip:

"The RBC editorial concludes: "Apparently, by having recourse to large-scale terrorist actions, the forces behind that terrorism, have now acted directly to force a 'change' in the political situation in the Caucasus, propagating interethnic wars into Russia. "The only way to resist this, would be for Moscow to make it known, that we are ready to fight a new war, according to new rules and new methods -- not with mythical 'international terrorists', who do not and never existed, but with the controllers of the 'insurgents and freedom fighters'; a war against the geopolitical puppet-masters, who are ready to destroy thousands of Russians for the sake of achieving their new division of the world." (RBC, September 7, 2004)

In a related comment, the Chairman of the Duma Foreign Affairs Committee, Dmitri Rogozin, declared in an interview on Sunday September 5: "I think [those behind the terrorism] are those who would like to see Russia totally discredited as a power.... I think that the aim is to destabilize the political situation in the country and plunge Russia into total chaos." (Ekho Moskvy, September 6, 2004)

Western press organs have responded to the school massacre with a campaign to blame, not the terrorists, but the Putin regime and Russian society. This disingenuous policy has further stoked Russian resentment. On September 6, Strana.ru headlined, "Western Press: The Tragedy Is Russia's Own Fault," commenting that "unlike official politicians, journalists do not want to admit that the bombings and hostage-takings in our country are acts of international terrorism." Another example of this Putin-bashing was the article by Masha Lippman in the Washington Post of September 9.

A basic reason for the US-UK surrogate warfare against Russia is the great Anglo-Saxon fear of a continental bloc of the type which emerged during the run � up to Bush's Iraq aggression. The centerpiece of the continental bloc is the German-Russian relationship. Washington and London fear that Russia will soon agree to accept euros in payment for its oil deliveries. This would not just prevent the Anglo-Americans from further skimming off oil transactions between Russia and Europe. It would represent the beginning of the end of the dollar as the reserve currency of the world, a role which the battered greenback, weakened by Bush's $500 billion yearly trade deficit and Bush's $750 billion budget deficit, can no longer fulfill. If Russia moves to the euro, it is expected that the Eurasian giant may be quickly followed by Iran, Indonesia, Venezuela, and other countries. This could put an end to the ability of the US to run astronomical foreign trade deficits, and would place the question of a US return to a production-based economy on the agenda. The oil-euro question is expected to be discussed at the upcoming Russian-German economic summit.


RUSSIA TO PAY FOR OIL WITH EUROS?


In a half-page article published in the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung and headlined "Realizing the Strategic Partnership," Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov predicted key progress in the energy sector. Lavrov said that numerous proposals by Moscow on how to expand cooperation in the sphere of future-shaping high-tech branches of the economy will be put on the agenda of the September 11-12 German-Russian economic summit in Hamburg. Russia calls for the development of "mutually beneficial cooperation in aerospace, information technology, telecom, biotechnology, development of new materials, laser technology, and nanotechnology. Lavrov wrote that Russia expects a breakthrough at the Hamburg talks -- which will also deal with the energy sector. (Frankfurter Allgemeine, September 3, 2004)"

Druid: Events along the trail are approaching warp drive. Give the good folks here at the castle a call and place your orders, time is a ticking.

Topaz
(09/20/2004; 01:59:12 MDT - Msg ID: 124534)
alt$Gold and the DX pennant.
http://www.futuresource.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=GC&o=100/DX&a=D&z=610x300&d=LOW&b=LINE&st=Again we're seeing strength in Gold as evidenced in the comparison chart, along with a classic pennant formation in the DX.
Bond Yields suggest the breakout in DX will be UP with Oil and Yields ... maybe Gold will go along for the ride? That WOULD be a HOOT!!
Belgian
(09/20/2004; 02:45:00 MDT - Msg ID: 124535)
Oil Power....
Tensions in Sudan are rising and the building Chinese oil-interests in that country will be countered. China explicitely refuses to westernize (politically) and made this very clear to the planet at today's concentration of all powers in one man, happened smoothly. China's global co-operation (flexibility) has limits.

After Bush gets re-elected, there will be dealt with (nuclear) Iran !
Read H.C.K. Liu's lastest : "The burden of being a superpower ". Some historical background as to understand the utmost importance of "oil".

Middle East, Russia-Caucasus, Africa...and a few isolated oil-states...tensions, are based on oil-oilreserves, and the "valuation"..."distribution"..."availability", of these reserves for the next 5 decades.

The Yukos oil (1 million b/d) is exported to China by train = very expensive and to the west by pipelines. Oil is not only about reserves but importantly about its transport (pipelines-corridors and shipping).

The managers of the global economy and finance are "buying" time, through unbelieveable efforts of unprecedented intervention. How co-operative will "oil" be !? Will the growing geo-political upheavals (terror) cool down or increase !?

Will this lead to oil-Gold >>> Value for Value-concept !?
Ned
(09/20/2004; 04:38:04 MDT - Msg ID: 124536)
Can someone please tell me what's REALLY going on?
http://www.canoe.ca/NewsStand/Columnists/Toronto/Eric_Margolis/2004/09/19/634925.html"Here comes another huge nuclear embarrassment for Washington.

UN nuclear inspectors just caught close U.S. ally South Korea enriching small amounts of plutonium and uranium to weapons grade.

This revelation comes when the Bush administration's neocon hawks are clamouring for war against Iran over its unproven nuclear weapons program. These are the same hawks who raised a hue and cry over Iraq's non-existent weapons of mass destruction.


South Korea's six-year-old program was far ahead of Iran's; various deceptions were used to conceal it from UN inspectors. North Korea, to no surprise, has been crowing over this embarrassing revelation, claiming its nuclear program has been justified. "

......................................................

In this messed up day & age, is EVERYTHING a lie?

Ned
(09/20/2004; 04:42:52 MDT - Msg ID: 124537)
USD to devalue further..................
http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/05A8C4D2-61B8-4E88-A707-A43DE742756D.htm"The dollar is likely to be devalued to deal with the booming trade deficit in the United States, raising the prospect of global financial instability.


The UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a report on Thursday indicating the dollar's 20% devaluation against major currencies had so far failed to provide "much of a stimulus" to the US economy."
Belgian
(09/20/2004; 07:39:25 MDT - Msg ID: 124540)
Plenty of oil-reserves....
@ Ned : Lies and above all, misleading, deceptive perception building adressed to the general public and the masses of lower echelon politicians : Today's example >>> Russia has much (huge) larger oil(gas) reserves than previously estimated . Soon, the world (and China too) will be flooded with crude...!? Yada...

Nuclear material in South Korea...? Why not ? Why are India and Pakistan, nuclear powers, together in Washington ?

But I stick to the "Real" nuclear power of Gold, wich is the power that will be "used" as the least destructive (face-saving) change. The fact that very little about the Gold-lies (and deceptions) is surfacing ...indicates the infernal power of Gold...regardless of the Gold-advocates ridiculing � la Gartman. Nobody dares to expose the dollar in its full nakedness through interlinking the "real" motives behind the ongoing geopolitical upheavals. This will be descibed, postfactum, by the many biased history writers.

Even Liu is cautious in what he is exposing in his writings.
The public needs and gets distracting "stories", whilst the crude realities evolve out of sight. This globe, including the self proclaimed civilized part of it, remains silently immune for all atrocities. This means that there is a lot at stake. The denial of the Big Gold-lie (between the many others) is simply a classical confirmation of it. Note, that the two competing rivals, dollar and euro, have a "different" approach towards Gold in their lies, comments, deceptions, half thruths, etc...since the moment that the euro made its entry.
This Gold shizofrenia illustrates Gold's power as superior to many other, destructive powers(threaths).

After the hulabaloo of peaking oil...we have sudden change in perception building with stories about oil gluts. So will it be with Gold...from irrelevant to extremely important.
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(09/20/2004; 12:18:46 MDT - Msg ID: 124541)
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American Expression
(09/20/2004; 12:27:19 MDT - Msg ID: 124542)
Fed Seen Sticking to Measured Rate Raises
http://www.sitedynamo.com/cwsv3/trial530369/MiscFiles/chart-sept202004-a.pdfNice gold chart @ above link.

"Fed officials gather on Tuesday and are widely expected to raise overnight borrowing costs, which influence rates across the economy, by a quarter-percentage point to 1.75 percent.

It would mark the third small rate increase since the Fed began tightening monetary policy in June.

While the U.S. economy lost some momentum in recent months, Fed policymakers have expressed confidence it has entered a self-sustaining expansion and no longer needs the ultra-low rates that were used to battle recession and a weak recovery.

"Our main direction is up," Fed Governor Susan Bies said last week. As Bill Cheney, chief economist at MSC Global Investment Management, puts it: "They'd like to take their foot off the gas pedal."

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=6273059

Definition of gas pedal .....

The Desk has entered the market announcing: O/N RP -$8.500 billion

Fed's Daily Securities Lending - $0.709 billion

Zoom, zoom, zoom .....
Black Blade
(09/20/2004; 13:38:04 MDT - Msg ID: 124543)
Oil, Precious Metals, and Preparation

There's been a bit of talk about a supposed "oil glut", and yet US inventories declined (six weeks in a row so far). Yukos may have gained some attention as the Russians revert to centralized socialism/communism. China and India continue to search for buying opportunities wherever they can without much success. The recent hurricanes in the GOM have not helped much even as Transocean (RIG) lost a deep-water rig in the process (fortunately the crew was evacuated safely). Still we have a couple months of "hurricane season" when inventories should be building. Demand continues to rise for oil and NatGas while the pundits still rely on old demand-supply dynamics.

I haven't checked for a while but the story is that the peoples bank of China and a couple of semi-private Chinese banks continue to accumulate gold on the sly. Indian bankers are now supposedly looking to increase gold and silver reserves as harvest season and festival season approaches. Meanwhile precious metals appear to be stabilizing for the time being as the US printing presses are smoking 24/7. Now is a good time to lock in some physical and watch the clock. Tic Toc Tic Toc�

Speaking of natural disasters it can't be stressed enough that preparation is key. It was quite amusing to see news reports of lines of people buying necessities a day ahead of hurricane landfall. Obviously many people are just plain stupid scurrying about stripping store shelves at the last minute. The Grasshoppers were well prepared as the Ants were panicked. As always, get outta debt and stay outta debt, stash emergency cash for expenses, accumulate Gold and Silver portfolio insurance, and start a storage program of basic necessities and non-perishable food.

- Black Blade

USAGOLD Daily Market Report
(09/20/2004; 13:50:40 MDT - Msg ID: 124544)
Page Update!
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If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.

--- closing market excerpts---

COMEX gold slipped on Monday but stayed within last week's range as the dollar firmed in anticipation of another increase in U.S. interest rates at Tuesday's Federal Reserve meeting.

"We're all looking and waiting to see what the Fed does," said a floor broker. "That's tomorrow afternoon, so we're looking at two days of pretty much quietness."

December gold settled 60 cents easier at $407.00.

Dealers lamented the light volume, which was estimated at paltry 21,000 contracts, hardly half of Friday's official 40,043 contracts.

The 200-day moving average was technical support around $405.50.

Despite expecting the Fed to tighten again this week, traders seemed confident that the central bank will go slow hiking further, based on signals that it is not worried about overheating as the economy emerges from a summer slow patch. A measured Fed approach was just one reason for investors to shy away from buying the dollar agressively.

Indeed, gold cut morning losses as the dollar backed off its highs. "The U.S.'s ability to fund its external deficit is becoming particularly onerous, which should eventually unravel the U.S. dollar and hence boost the gold price," Deutsche Bank said in its latest commodities report.

---(see url for access to full news, 24-hr newswire)---
American Expression
(09/20/2004; 13:54:07 MDT - Msg ID: 124545)
There can be no soft landing! Be afraid. Be very afraid.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/story/0,3604,1308149,00.htmlSNIPPET:

Brian Reading, of Lombard Street Research says the global economy is held together by a Bretton Woods-style fixed exchange rate regime that is doomed to collapse. Half the world, he says, is yoked together in a new dollar area, which has the US and Asia marching in step. The synchronised boom will end not in a soft landing but in synchronised diving in 2005-06 that could spawn a legacy of deflation and protectionism. The modern "dollar area" is made up of an inner core of countries - China, Hong Kong and Malaysia - pegged to the dollar and an outer ring of Japan, India, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, Indonesia, Singapore and Russia, managed against it. Including the US, these countries make up half the world's dollar GDP.

The original Bretton Woods collapsed in the 1970s, once the strain of holding it together proved too great. Bretton Woods was an attempt to revive the gold standard, albeit in a modified form. One difference was that under the gold standard a country running a deficit was forced to deflate while one operating a surplus had to reflate. This was painful but eventually restored equilibrium.

Reading's point is that Bretton Woods 2 is less stable than Bretton Woods 1. It is a marriage of convenience, rather than a formal arrangement; it was created by the countries on the periphery so the US has no obligation to resist a devaluation of the dollar, it is not a gold exchange system, and it has developed when US imbalances - a 5% current account deficit and a 5% budget deficit - are extreme. "It is more like late Bretton Woods than early, but worse", he notes.

There are only three ways to reduce the US current account deficit. One option would be for the dollar to depreciate, making US exports cheaper and imports from Asia and Europe dearer. This is certain to be resisted by the rest of the dollar area. A second option would be for Asia to continue booming, which Reading says is implausible. Action to deal with inflation will expose overinvestment and this will lead to a hard landing. This leaves the third option, slumping domestic demand in the US. That would amplify the downturn in China, the rest of Asia and Europe by reducing flows of imports into the US.

Reading's conclusion is sober but at least as plausible as the notion that the global economy is unscathed from its recent travails and is on the threshold of sustained, untroubled growth.

"The new dollar area, like Bretton Woods, must end in tears. The synchronised boom it has created cannot continue. There can be no soft landing for the US or China. Quite simply, Americans save too little and must save more, meaning demand and incomes must shrink. The Chinese invest too much and must invest less, meaning demand and incomes will contract. This is the recipe for synchronised sinking."

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

McHugh On The Markets - Sept 20

The SPX/VIX Ratio sits at a Crash-warning level of 80.44 as of Friday, September 17th (see chart on page 4), after exceeding the 85.00 level on September 13th, the second highest reading in 6 years. Bearish.

"Bottom Line"

The major equity averages appear to have topped or are close to topping. There are some disturbing indicators in place that have been seen before just prior to stock market crashes. The major divergence between the Transports and the Dow Industrials, and the SPX/VIX ratio, are two key warnings. On the other hand, should the Industrials confirm the Trannies on the upside and the DJIA 20 month moving average break decisively above the 40 month, these would be indicative of an extension of the rally since October 2002. Short-term indicators are overbought so the immediate expectation is for a decline. Should new lower lows be achieved, this market could crash. A failure to hit lower lows in the DJIA would be bullish. Caution is warranted.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/mchugh091904.html

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(09/20/2004; 14:00:45 MDT - Msg ID: 124546)
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Gondolin
(09/20/2004; 16:24:06 MDT - Msg ID: 124547)
Gold Producers worried about decline in jewellery demand (??!!)
I really love opening the Sunday papers with the usual hangover and having a really good laugh. Article in the Sunday Telegraph this weekend (Sept 19). More negative claptrap from the media attempting to crate some more smoke and mirrors.

snip-

...while most of the big gold miners are content to sit back and count their earnings, others fear that the good times cannot last. They have identified worrying trends in demand for gold that they fear could mean the current boom could soon turn to slump.

They also point out that although the short term gold price is influenced by investment demand, most of teh metal- around 80% by weight- ends up in jewellery (and another 12 per cent goes for inductrial use). So if the bottom falls out of the jewellery market, that's not great forgold producers.

AngloGold Ashanti, the world's second-largest gold producer, says that worldwide demand for gold jewellery has been falling steadily, by 22 per cent since 1998. It argues that unless something is done to arrest the decline, there will be nothing to underpin the price of gold when investor interest switches elsewhere (to stocks for example).

end snip.

Holy Snapping Duck**** batman! These people are really clued up. Most of the imbeciles out there are still snapping up the stocks. Bit of a case of nailing up the stable door before the barn catches on fire so the horse can't bolt.

Actually the article is about the promotion of gold as jewellery to compete with other luxury items,by launching gold via the likes of the Italian designed Saison range, aimed at professional women, and about the gold producers being the only players in the chain from producer down to retailer with enough funds to effectively brand gold against the likes of diamonds and platinum which have been doing better than gold over recent years.

Still, once again the investigative reporter has totally missed the mark. Or his editor changed the story on him.

'Gold, get u some.' Quote from one of ours which would be great on the new ad campaign they might be launching...
TownCrier
(09/20/2004; 17:01:31 MDT - Msg ID: 124548)
Fed creates fresh money, props up short end of yield curve
With the market in fed funds trading a bit tightly this morning, a possible anticipation of tomorrow's FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve today intervened in the open market, creating $1.5 billion in 'permanent' new money for the reserves of the nation's commercial banking system through the outright purchase of Treasury bills maturing October 28 to December 30, 2004.

The Federal Reserve today also provided a temporary addition of $8.5 billion in fresh cash through a round of overnight repurchase agreements, the bulk of which were tendered at an average rate of 1.569 percent.

R.
Chris Powell
(09/20/2004; 18:05:07 MDT - Msg ID: 124549)
Second Blanchard lawsuit against Barrick and Morgan Chase ...
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/2389... seeks damages for all gold owners.

Latest GATA dispatch.



To subscribe to GATA's dispatches, send an e-mail to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com
Smeagol
(09/20/2004; 18:49:03 MDT - Msg ID: 124550)
Sso...what'ss the deal, here?

The Euro is biding time in a 'ssilence is Golden'(for now) sstruggle with Dollar forces, for eventual Key-currency sstatus... meanwhile, the GATA is ssuing to sstop the 'manipulation' of the Precious-price (the very ssame Gold-for-Oil price manipulation that the Powers do not deem ready to give up jusst yet, and which the Euro needs for a little while more?) which would essentially short-circuit the whole Oil-for-Gold thing, or would it? We doesn't get it... does the GATA know the method but not the why of the Precious-control? What would happen sshould the POG-manipulation end before 'the time appointed'?

We has a feeling the resolution of their law-ssuit will be conveniently 'delayed' until after the fireworks are over... and maybe the defendants conveniently won't be around then, financially, to recover damages from... jusst our humble, sskeptical, wholly speculative and largely uninformed wonderings, of coursse...

S.
Chris Powell
(09/20/2004; 19:03:12 MDT - Msg ID: 124551)
Smeagol, GATA doesn't care much about the purposes of the market riggers....
... even though we think we have a pretty
good idea of them. Whatever they are, they
aren't good purposes, and we don't think
that the advocates of precious metals and
free markets should go along quietly. We
don't have to win damages in court to
win in the bigger sense. All we have to
do is expose the racket to a large enough
audience and it will fail.
Smeagol
(09/20/2004; 19:19:59 MDT - Msg ID: 124552)
Thank you, Ssir Chris Powell

...for the unexpectedly quick and ssatissfying answer to our Quesstions... we sstill wonders which will happen firsst... a court victory cutting the Gold-price rope, or the sudden snapping of said rope by other forces... we shall have to wait and ssee... BUT we will continue to buy It (the Metal, not the paper!) as we can, until that day dawns.

S.
Smeagol
(09/20/2004; 19:40:25 MDT - Msg ID: 124553)
...and...

Ssir Chris Powell, you ssaid, "All we have to do is expose the racket to a large enough audience and it will fail."

We thinks that sufficient exposure is already a given, but that mosst involved in the paper-Gold market tend to look at what GATA is ssaying, then they look at the Gold-market, which SEEMS to them to be running just fine, even if it isn't. They compare the two, shrug their shoulders and go with what they SEE, not what IS... and knowing human nature, there are a great many, we are ssure, that simply don't CARE if the markets are 'rigged' or not, sso long as they can get theirs in that venue. No amount of exposure can cure that - they will have to be forced out.

S.
Chris Powell
(09/20/2004; 20:23:25 MDT - Msg ID: 124554)
Smeagol, you may be right ...
... GATA is just trying to do what it can.
My sense is that most people seriously
involved in the metals market now know
that something is wrong and that it
probably involves central bank intervention.
The question is whether they have the
courage or inclination to act on what they
know. Many if not are still too scared. In
any case the rigging of the metals markets
-- and the bond market, and the stock market
-- can be sustained only by surreptitiousness.
All values will change as people realize that
what they are taking their price cues from
aren't really markets at all.

"Fiat iustitia et ruant coeli." -- Let
justice be done though the heavens fall.
Chris Powell
(09/20/2004; 20:25:03 MDT - Msg ID: 124555)
Correcting typo: Smeagol, you may be right....
... GATA is just trying to do what it can.
My sense is that most people seriously
involved in the metals market now know
that something is wrong and that it
probably involves central bank intervention.
The question is whether they have the
courage or inclination to act on what they
know. Many if not most are still too scared.
In any case the rigging of the metals markets
-- and the bond market, and the stock market
-- can be sustained only by surreptitiousness.
All values will change as people realize that
what they are taking their price cues from
aren't really markets at all.

"Fiat iustitia et ruant coeli." -- Let
justice be done though the heavens fall.
968
(09/21/2004; 01:21:54 MDT - Msg ID: 124556)
Fed intervenes in the bond market ?
http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/2004/200448/200448pap.pdfSNIP : "In this paper, we apply the tools of modern empirical finance to the recent experiences of the United States and Japan to provide evidence on the potential effectiveness of various nonstandard policies. Following Bernanke and Reinhart (2004), we group these policy alternatives into three classes: (1) using communications policies to shape public expectations about the future course of interest rates; (2) increasing the size of the central bank's balance sheet, or "quantitative easing"; and (3) changing the composition of the central bank's balance sheet through, for example, the targeted purchases of long-term bonds as a means of reducing the long-term interest rate."

"Our results provide some grounds for optimism about the likely efficacy of nonstandard policies. In particular, we confirm a potentially important role for central
bank communications to try to shape public expectations of future policy actions. Like G�rkaynak, Sack, and Swanson (2004), we find that the Federal Reserve's monetary
policy decisions have two distinct effects on asset prices. These factors represent, respectively, (1) the unexpected change in the current setting of the federal funds rate,
and (2) the change in market expectations about the trajectory of the funds rate over the next year that is not explained by the current policy action. In the United States, the second factor, in particular, appears strongly linked to Fed policy statements, probably reflecting the importance of communication by the central bank. If central bank "talk" affects policy expectations, then policymakers retain some leverage over long-term yields, even if the current policy rate is at or near zero."

"We also find evidence supporting the view that asset purchases in large volume by a central bank would be able to affect the price or yield of the targeted asset. Since the Federal Reserve has not engaged in such purchases in the past fifty years, our evidence for the United States is necessarily indirect. Three recent episodes, however, provide important insights. In each, financial market participants received information that led them to expect large changes in the relative supplies of Treasury securities. These episodes include (1) the Treasury�s announcements of �debt buybacks� that followed the emergence of budget surpluses in the late 1990s; (2) the massive foreign official purchases of U.S. Treasury securities over the past two years; and (3) the apparent belief among market participants in 2003 that the Federal Reserve was actively considering targeted purchases of Treasury securities as an anti-deflationary measure. Event-study analyses of these episodes, as well as the comparison of actual Treasury yields during these periods to our estimated benchmark for the term structure, suggest that large changes in the relative supplies of securities may have economically significant effects on their yields." END SNIP.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Although this paper is a "thinking exercise", it shows that the Federal Reserve is trying to hold IR low ("the current policy rate is at or near zero") by every means (propaganda, outright buying of bonds,...).
misetich
(09/21/2004; 04:59:01 MDT - Msg ID: 124557)
I.M.F. Chief Sees Potential Hazard in U.S. Fiscal Policies
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/09/21/business/worldbusiness/21fund.htmlSnip:
The managing director of the International Monetary Fund, Rodrigo de Rato, said yesterday that the dollar would have to fall and the United States would have to tackle its growing indebtedness to avoid a threat to the world economy some time in the future.
..............
He noted that with the United States' deficit remaining well over 4 percent of its gross domestic product for years to come, "some correction in the value of currencies will make sense from the point of view of fundamentals.''

"We believe such a large imbalance is a risk not only for the United States economy, but for the world economy,'' he said
..................
****************
Misetich

"that the dollar would have to fall"

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
misetich
(09/21/2004; 05:28:51 MDT - Msg ID: 124558)
US favors strong dollar policy
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2004-09/21/content_2000301.htmSnip:

Beijing, Sept. 21 (Xinhuanet) --US Treasury Secretary says the US government continues to favor a strong dollar with the value set in flexible currency markets. He is confident about the sustainability of the US economic recovery.

Snow said he is confident about the sustainability of the US economic recovery, while saying that "the rest of the world is still growing too slowly" , China Radio International reported Tuesday
***************
Misetich

More Snow Jobs

Tuesday, September 21, 2004 11:05 GMT
AFX News - "Sure enough, our economy is coming back. Now, we're beginning to do very well and the outlook is good. Our economy has found solid footing and is certainly heading in the right direction."

End of snip

Meanwhile back in the reality land....

The most often used word in Politicos Land is "Temporary"

OPEC says current oil prices are "temporary"
The Maestro says US economic slowdown is "temporary"
EU says inflation (by their definition) over 2% is "temporary"

The 2004 Oil Shock And Awe is continuing - and its NOT TEMPORARY - The era of cheaply priced energy IS OVER

The epic battle being fought is "not temporary". It is the battle of "continued dominance of the US $ bloc" vs the Rest of the world

Place your bets....

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
Arcticfox
(09/21/2004; 06:55:15 MDT - Msg ID: 124559)
(No Subject)
http://www.stockhouse.com/bullboards/wraplink.asp?url=www.mahendraprophecy.com/home_flash_details.asp?home_flash_id=128Mahendra predictions..
968
(09/21/2004; 07:23:33 MDT - Msg ID: 124560)
@ Belgian
http://www.inogate.org/english.htmIsn't it strange that Russia doesn't participate in this European sponsored pipeline project ?
Any thoughts ?
Druid
(09/21/2004; 09:54:35 MDT - Msg ID: 124561)
968 (9/21/04; 01:21:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 124556)


Druid: 968, excellent post. This is more smoke and mirrors. Since the past prudent policies of the Fed over the years have seem to have backed them into a corner while mapping out monetary policy for the entire world and not just us lucky Americans, they have to come up with some sort of scholarly tripe to feed international investors and cloak outright monetization.
misetich
(09/21/2004; 10:31:31 MDT - Msg ID: 124562)
Marc Faber - China Accumulating Gold
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000080&sid=aBP9cieY3.bI&refer=asiaSnips:

Marc Faber Speaks: U.S. Economy, Policies, Outlook for Asia

* Keep US $ strong (All of Asia buying $) undermining manufacturing in US

* Transfer of technology, investment, manufacturing

* Recently and quietly buying and accumulating physical gold, (will not be shown on official records as to not to alert markets)

* by keeping US $ strong allows Asia accumulating gold cheaply -

* When Crisis hit - ( when Asia pulls the plug on the US $ or bonds = losses on US $ will be offset by gains on gold positions

Result: Transfer of wealth to Asia

http://media5.bloomberg.com:443/cgi-bin/getavfile.cgi?A=22240505

Misetich

Terrific presentation by Dr. Faber - Highly reccommended

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
Camel
(09/21/2004; 10:39:40 MDT - Msg ID: 124563)
Chinese gold
http://atimes.com/atimes/China/FI22Ad05.htmlMore on Chinese gold sales
968
(09/21/2004; 11:02:10 MDT - Msg ID: 124564)
Chinese PM - Russia.
http://www.washtimes.com/upi-breaking/20040921-053230-3436r.htmChinese PM Wen Jiabao is definetely going to Russia to discuss the stop of Yukos oil shipments to China. How will Putin react ?
Cometose
(09/21/2004; 11:37:03 MDT - Msg ID: 124565)
HUI
If these prices on bullion hold through the next ten minutes ...............expect more follow through on the unhedged miner companies........
and be notified that the HUI Broke RESISTANCE today and will likely continue to climb..............
whether there is an interest rate hike today or whether there is not .....................

Interesting drop in the Dollar today ahead of Greenspan Fed Testimony as if markets already discounting a rate hike ......

Lots of bad chatter re: the dollar during the last week ..

It is apparent now, that in order to avert the problems associated with a debt collapse and to bouy up debt markets(ie Treasuries and Real estate) in the face of perhaps large selling pressure in the bond market .................to cushion a possible fall in BOND market .........which may be managed locally by Internal BUying and money printing by the fed........
Appeasing foreign holders of US DEBT may only come in the form of a lower DOLLAR ........FOREIGN HOLDERS of US DEBT therefore hedge their US DEBT EXPOSURE BY LOADING UP ON
Foreign CURRENCIES that are bound to benefit in the DOLLAR ROUT............and they will also no DOUBT invest in GOLD AND SILVER ALSO TO HEDGE their US TREASURY POSITION.......
THis enables fed to avert cataclysme that their poor policies expose US Citizens to and if all goes well enable them to save face ........MAYBE.............maybe not

Perhaps Jim SInclair's recommended reading of "OUR CROWD" (about European OLD MONEY and clues to what it is currently doing ) may shed more light on this more..............
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(09/21/2004; 11:58:56 MDT - Msg ID: 124566)
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USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(09/21/2004; 12:04:17 MDT - Msg ID: 124567)
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misetich
(09/21/2004; 12:04:34 MDT - Msg ID: 124568)
Marc Faber Speaks: U.S. Economy, Policies, Outlook for Asia
http://worldmarket.blogspot.com/2004/09/comrade-faber-speaks-method-in-madness.htmlSnip:

Capital spending in the meantime is still lower in the United States than in the year 2000. And as you can see on the following page nine, the employment gains in America have been very disappointed - disappointing. Had employment increased at the same rate than in post-war recovery employment in the United States would be eight million people higher.

Real wages are, in fact, declining, even with the techniques the government is preparing in the United States. We should actually sue them for infringement of intellectual property rights. And as the average earnings are growing at the lowest rate in the last 40 years. So we can say the vulnerability of the U.S. economy is that growth has come from a debt bubble that stimulates consumption, always consumption, and not growing actual production which they said at the same level than in '99 and from capital spending which has declined over the last four years
..................
You can see on the following page, 14, that until 1987 the United States has a positive net asset balance. But after 1987, as a result of the growing current account deficit, the net asset balance deteriorated and today foreigner's own approximately $9 trillion of assets in the U.S. GDP in the U.S. is $11.2 trillion, and Americans own approximately $6 trillion worth of assets overseas. In other words, the negative net asset balance is over $3 trillion or close to 30 percent of the American GDP.

And now this negative net investment balance is, of course, drawing analysts by the current account deficit of the United States, which in the second quarter was running at approximately $650 billion or close to six percent of the American GDP
...............
Moreover, we have recently, quietly, began to buy gold. Of course, we will never (inaudible) the gold reserves in our Central Bank reserve because we do not wish to alert the international market that we are buying gold. But by keeping the dollar very strong we (inaudible) the gold price and can accumulate it. So when the crisis will hit when we pull the plug on the dollar and on U.S. bonds we will have some losses on our dollar position but we will make it back on our gold positions.
***********
Misetich

Many thanks for trotsky (Marc Faber) ID#377387, for the link,

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
TownCrier
(09/21/2004; 12:50:07 MDT - Msg ID: 124569)
Another particularly well-crafted and insightful client letter by MK has been e-mailed today
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TownCrier
(09/21/2004; 12:55:33 MDT - Msg ID: 124570)
FOMC Statement -- September 21, 2004
http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/press/monetary/2004/20040921/default.htmFor immediate release

The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to raise its target for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 1-3/4 percent.

The Committee believes that, even after this action, the stance of monetary policy remains accommodative and, coupled with robust underlying growth in productivity, is providing ongoing support to economic activity.

After moderating earlier this year partly in response to the substantial rise in energy prices, output growth appears to have regained some traction, and labor market conditions have improved modestly. Despite the rise in energy prices, inflation and inflation expectations have eased in recent months.

The Committee perceives the upside and downside risks to the attainment of both sustainable growth and price stability for the next few quarters to be roughly equal. With underlying inflation expected to be relatively low, the Committee believes that policy accommodation can be removed at a pace that is likely to be measured. Nonetheless, the Committee will respond to changes in economic prospects as needed to fulfill its obligation to maintain price stability.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Alan Greenspan, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Ben S. Bernanke; Susan S. Bies; Roger W. Ferguson, Jr.; Edward M. Gramlich; Thomas M. Hoenig; Donald L. Kohn; Cathy E. Minehan; Mark W. Olson; Sandra Pianalto; and William Poole.

In a related action, the Board of Governors unanimously approved a 25 basis point increase in the discount rate to 2-3/4 percent. In taking this action, the Board approved the requests submitted by the Boards of Directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago, St. Louis, Minneapolis, Kansas City, Dallas, and San Francisco.
USAGOLD Daily Market Report
(09/21/2004; 14:45:52 MDT - Msg ID: 124571)
Page Update!
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Daily Gold Market Report has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.

---Closing market excerpts---

Comex gold futures gained on the back of fund and dealer buying spurred by the weakened U.S. dollar relative to other currencies.

The most active Dec contract settled $3.10 higher at $410.10...

The U.S. currency sank against the euro on investor selling ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee's decision on interest rates, which came after the Comex floor trading session closed.

A break in spot gold prices above recent resistance levels around $408 per ounce also drew a hefty dose of chart-following fund buying...

Dealers said that from a technical or chart-followers perspective, as the close is the highest since the first of September some follow-through interest may well emerge over the near term to keep gold's focus on the upside.

... much depends on the macro fallout from the U.S. Federal Reserve's decision to raise interest rates by 25 basis points.

The full impact of the rate decision will likely be played out overnight on the equity and currency markets and only then will gold prices take their directional cue, dealers said.

----(see url for access to full news, 24-hr headline)----

HEADLINES:

Dollar Tanks Despite Fed Rate Hike -- FXstreet

NYMEX crude ends above $47 on big draw forecast -- Borsa Italiana - News

Dollar Down, Investors Look Past Fed Hike -- Reuters - Business

ALSO:

(Reuters) - COMEX gold shot to its highest price in 20 days at the open Tuesday, catching some traders wrong-footed as they awaited a Federal Reserve decision on interest rates in the afternoon.

"Yesterday was very, very quiet," said a floor broker. "Most people were looking for the same sort of action today -- just sitting back waiting for the Fed."

Traders said a softer dollar overnight did not fully explain gold's jump, even though markets were getting less certain that the Fed will tighten credit aggressively.

"I know the euro is up, but it's not doing anything dramatic," the gold broker said.

[Randy's note: The very nature of the market (superficially, that is) is to keep you guessing and on the sidelines. Therefore, look deeper and recognize the superiority of tangible gold in the face of a fundamentally precarious dollar. And don't forget the Eurosystem resets its books for the next quarter on mark-to-market revaluations next Thursday.]
MK
(09/21/2004; 15:12:17 MDT - Msg ID: 124572)
Nice comments about our site & forum at Gold Eagle/ Thanks, Maya
http://www.usagold.com/goldTrail/archives/ANOTHER1.htmlPost at Gold Eagle Forum:

My hair is standing on end

(Maya)
Sep 19, 22:34

after getting only halfway through the postings of 'ANOTHER' on the oil for gold machinations of the world!

To think that this was written in '97-'98 is just astounding to me. It is right on, and many of his predictions are coming to pass as we watch.

Suddenly a lot of the strange manipulations of the banks and gold market become crystal clear as I understand the hidden, underlying basis for the need of them. OIL is the currency of the world now, and someone wants GOLD for their oil... without upsetting the marketplace.

It just reinforces my need to hold physical in-hand, and it has me seriously questioning my 'greed motive' in owning paper stocks of gold mining companies that could vaporize, literally overnight! I wanted to be a long-term investor in stocks, but now I fear more than ever that I might not make it even gloom..) The biggest, loudest alarm bell I hear is the fact that the Rothschilds have left the London Gold Fix.'

And today the postman delivered my copy of 'The Creature...' Nothing like a little heavy horror reading for the weekend!

Hold your physical, folks! There will come a day when you will not be willing to trade it for any arbitrary 'amount'.
Belgian
(09/21/2004; 15:44:55 MDT - Msg ID: 124573)
@ 968
The intriges of power are like labyrinths. Oil exploration-exploitations and transport, demand huge investments. These costs bite into the short term profitability . And in this growingly insecure-unstable world...one becomes risk aversive up until there is a better outlook for stability. Oil(gas) pipelines over long distances, accross borders, are very vulnerable. We are witnessing the growing " global " importance of oil. The (former evident) Oil affairs of the past 30 years are changing. There are 1001 reasons, today, to postpone deep (LT) investments into oil and related infrastructure. Bear in mind that Russia today is an almost as big oil-supplier than Saudi Arabia. A (vital resource) force to be taken seriously...not in the least in (geo)political terms. The former "easy-oil-times" are definitely a thing of the past ! It is the merit of A/FOA and MK's CPM-USAGOLD, for having drawn our attention to this very important aspect and its evolving relationship with currencies and Gold !!! Today, we, the privileged ones, do see it happening...or better, we are "experiencing" it.

Yes, there will come more Russian oil-gas pipelines (and others) at the "appropiate" moment. Once this vital valuable can be exchanged for...an equal Value ! Note, how extremely cautious OPEC was on the ST+LT POO projections !
Oil is not going to give its gained pricing-power out of its hands anymore. Why should they !? All oil will constantly be re-evaluating its (� la carte) alliances.
The old fashion oil-colonialism is over. Balances of power do change/alter over time, as day follows night.

Today, "oil+euro+Gold" up and... dollar down ! This "trend" is going to continue and accelerate, regardless of strong "$Snow"...

Always expect the most odd oil-deals that seem paradoxal.
Remember the paradox of a bankrupt Argentina, officially acquiring Gold-reserves ! Follow patiently the deep cross-currents in this crazy world where very little seems what it really is (was).

Today's FED action (+ 0,25%) was labelled as very smart, by the reporting brotherhood !? The FED was taking out excess liquidity...yadayada !? Jesus ! What happened to the LT IRs...and why did the $ tank ( �-1,23 +)!?
Why is it repeated 100 times, daily...day after day, that rising $-POO is noooohhhhhh problem !? Common...
Great Albino Bat
(09/21/2004; 17:21:46 MDT - Msg ID: 124574)
"Gold for Oil" - some musings on the subject....

With all due respect, this idea of "Gold for Oil" is hard for the GAB to understand.

My view - those who do NOT agree, please be patient! - is that the oil producing countries could not possibly demand gold for oil. They might WISH to do it, but it does not seem, to me, physically possible.

The last we heard of the Gold Standard, as it functioned, was as a balancer on the Trade Balance. It was not used for purchases, it was used to balance the Trade Balance between nations, on one side or the other: the country with an export deficit vis-a-vis their imports, would have to deliver an amount of gold to balance the trade.

The only countries that could persistently run trade deficits, were the gold-producing countries. And at one time, if memory serves, the silver-producing countries also were able to run trade deficits, by exporting silver.

Now, if the oil-producing countries run trade SURPLUSES, they might WISH to have their surplus paid to them in GOLD; they might wish that, but it would not be possible to comply with this wish, because the amount of gold in the world would eventually wind up, to a great extent, in their hands, and that - cannot be done, because when gold comes back into economics again, countries will be VERY shy of delivering gold on a permanent basis, for the purchase of a commodity which they consume - the oil is turned into energy and POOF! It is gone!

What is world trade going to look like when "gold comes back into economics"? This is my view:

Oil is going to have to be priced at a level which will correspond, roughly, to the value of the imports of the oil producers. The oil producers have OIL, they will exchange it for PRODUCTS, not for gold. If the oil producers have a surplus after all, they will have to take Promissory Notes, which they can redeem for PRODUCTS further on - and with which they will be able to buy SOME gold.

It will be possible to exchange these Promissory Notes - another name for "Money" - for gold. But as the holders - the oil producers - try to exchange the Notes for Gold, the Gold will rise in value, up and up and up. Until, the oil producers decide that it's a better deal to take the products offered, than the gold, at such high prices. Or instead of products and gold, the oil producers will turn the Notes into Loans with interest, and delay the reception of products and gold, until further notice.

So the bottom line is that the oil producers will find that gold is so expensive in terms of other desireable products, that they won't want gold, or only, small amounts of it.

If the oil producers raise the price of oil, they get more surplus and they get more promissory notes, and then they can BID for more gold, BUT, the price will also move upward. Whatever they do, they won't be able to trade Oil for Gold. Gold will be available to the oil producers, but at a VERY HIGH PRICE.

Now, Belgian, maybe this is just what you are saying, but in different words?

If oil is traded for euros, and the oil producers accumulate euros because of a surplus of exports of oil over imports of goods, then the oil producers will be able to buy some gold - but, they won't buy much because when they start offering euros for gold, the gold will rise vertically until the oil producers decide they don't really want it much of it, AT THAT PRICE.

Does this check out correctly, Belgian?

The GAB
Gandalf the White
(09/21/2004; 17:26:53 MDT - Msg ID: 124575)
YES !!!, Sir Cometose --- A beautiful BREAKOUT of the $HUI chart
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$HUI,uu[h,a]daoayiay[pb200!f][vc60][iut!Uh89,21!Lp88,21,3]⪯f=GLooking good !
Gather the YELLOW while you may. (try the easy way)
Just give USAGOLD a call.
<;-)
The Invisible Hand
(09/21/2004; 17:55:24 MDT - Msg ID: 124576)
Let's "do" some philosophy
Thu, 16 Sep 2004 16:14:33 -0000
[GATA] Really, why does the Justice Department even need an Anti-Trust Division?
SNIPS
"Conspiracies rarely exist, and when they do, they are far more often than not exposed."
+
24 hours later, another fantastic rarity burst into view. But of course the authorities always catch them all. ...

Chris Powell (9/20/04; 20:25:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 124555)
SNIPS
My sense is that most people seriously involved in the metals market now know that something is wrong and that it probably involves central bank intervention.
+
"Fiat iustitia et ruant coeli." � Let justice be done though the heavens fall.

It's one thing to say that the TRUTH is that the gold is being rigged by the GOVERNMENT, I repeat by the G-O-V-E-R-N-M-E-N-T.
It's quite another thing that JUSTICE will be done because Infineon had no choice (otherwise its officers would go to jail) than to concede that it TRIED, I repeat
T-R-I-E-D, to fix prices.

It is DISGUSTING, I repeat D-I-S-G-U-S-T-I-N-G, to see GATA write:
"Conspiracies rarely exist, and when they do, they are far more often than not exposed."
"But of course the authorities always catch them all. ..."

GATA's aim is only to catch conspirators whether or not the conspiracies are effective.

As Chris seems to be in a Latin mood (thereby admitting that GATA's aim is to try to achieve the world's collapse through the enforcement of antitrust law against honest companies like Infineon), here are two other Latin adages:
- Fiat iustitia et pereat mundus
- Fiat iustitia ne pereat mundus

The first one has the same meaning as the one quoted by Chris "Let justice be done even if the world collapses."
The second one says "Let justice be done so that the world does NOT collapse".

This does however not mean that the battle of those who like me as interested in truth and justice (fiat iustitia NE pereat mundus) and thus in gold, is hopeless.

Basic realism (as opposed to nominalism and idealism � in philosophy and � finance) rests indeed not only on respect for facts of how the world is and how it works, but also on a view to the effect that realism and the CORRESPONDENCE THEORY of the truth are essential presuppositions of any sane philosophy, not to mention any sane science. (credits go to John Searle)

The correspondence theory of truth says that a statement is true if it corresponds to reality or a is sometimes said to a fact. Without the belief that the world exists (and does thus not correspond to Alice's Wonderland) that the world is rich in sources of evidence independent of ourselves � evidence that can help to confirm or disconfirm our theories, the very project of science and of building theories has the ground cut from beneath its feet. (credits go again to John Searle)

Realism does thus not hold the coherence theory of the truth (a statement is true if it is coherent with other true statement) nor the pragmatic theory of the truth (a statement is true if it works). (credits go to John Hospers) I leave it up to the reader to decide which theory of the truth GATA advocates.

As Alan Greenspan said, or rather wrote:
The world of antitrust is reminiscent of Alice's Wonderland: everything seemingly is, yet apparently isn't, simultaneously. It is a world in which competition is lauded as the basic axiom and guiding principle, yet "too much" competition is condemned as "cutthroat." It is a world in which actions designed to limit competition are branded as criminal when taken by businessmen, yet praised as "enlightened" when initiated by the government. It is a world in which the law is so vague that businessmen have no way of knowing whether specific actions will be declared illegal until they hear the judge's verdict -- after the fact.

Yes, GATA has done good work in exposing the gold market rigging by the GOVERNMENT (and I thank GATA for that). But GATA should be more careful before demanding the enforcement of antitrust law against innocent private companies.
Aristotle
(09/21/2004; 18:47:17 MDT - Msg ID: 124577)
Great Albino Bat... "Great horny toads!"
I'm outta my chair. A while ago I thought maybe you finally had it -- but now I think you've lost it again. Maybe you're trying too hard??? It looks like you're turning things around. Perhaps you should try to think about VALUE instead of thinking primarily about money.

Put yourself in oil's shoes or any other person that can physically provide net exports of value over their imports. I don't care if you measure it with dollars and cents or euros and cents but at the end of the day you have provided a surplus value that's owed to you.

Next, imagine getting a bank check for the surplus amount, or imagine getting a locked box filled with Gold that has a *reliable* market value of the same amount.

So it comes down to a check on one hand, or a box of Gold on the other.

Now this is the part you have to get your head around. This is all about coming to terms with *reliable* RELIABLE (non-derivative) market value. Right, it isn't established yet, but it's coming. When it arrives, if you STILL think the relative size of the box matters at all when making your choice, then you're not thinking right about the meaning of value.

If you're sharp you'll understand that it's simply enough that the box HAS the *reliable* value. Period. However, if you insist on fixating about its size, the size of it merely gives you a quick physical indication/reference about the real market VALUE of the digits printed on the thin bankcheck alternative -- on that day.

Sure, theoretically you could have filled the box with any other real thing for this example, but society has already selected Gold universally, so why buck it? The only thing you need to do is load up before the reliable (i.e., non-derivative) market value shrinks those imagined black boxes down to a more comprehensible small physical size (of great value.)

On that day, with 20/20 hindsight, then you will be able to understand Gold-for-oil ------ if *IF* you are able to consider that oil had all this time been several giant steps ahead of you with 20/20 foresight! Yes!!!

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle
PH in LA
(09/21/2004; 19:03:10 MDT - Msg ID: 124578)
Gold for Oil
Greeting to the Great Albino Bat!

Your discussion of the "Gold for Oil" idea that was part of Another's original message content puts the dilema that confronts the oil producers in very clear and well-reasoned terms.

I was (ocassionally) a participant in Another's original discussions and my recollections are that there never was any "oil for gold". What Another said was that the oil-consuming nations understood very well that the producing states could only afford to produce oil in relation to the price (read "value") of gold. Only a relatively low price for gold could keep the price of oil low. This, of course, really meant the "value" of the dollar, which can only be understood to relate, in the final analysis, in terms of gold.

This has given rise to the whole pricing "mechanism" that has evolved with short selling of leased CB gold whereby "CBs around the world stand ready to lease sufficient gold should the price of gold threaten to rise" or whatever Greenie let slip on that famous occasion when he mumbled whatever in a congressional hearing. It seems to be anyone's guess how long this system of balls in the air can last. Belgian, GATA, and many others try to think it could all come apart at any time. (Have you seen Mahendra's latest?) The system seems to be lurching along for the time being. Our imbecile of a president even seems to think he can be elected in November. Of course, the wheels WILL come off someday.

Anyone (insiders excepted) who thinks they know exactly when, is mostly delusional.
Aristotle
(09/21/2004; 19:14:33 MDT - Msg ID: 124579)
GAB, let me put it this way...
It might be helpful to try to look at this again briefly in two different ways.

Imagine a scenario where, based on all of the finest accounting that money can buy, the net amount that is owed to you for your exported trade surplus is 100,000,000.00 earthos -- the official monetary unit of the nation in this example.

It really doesn't matter at all if that check for E100,000,000.00 is written on a very LARGE piece of paper (like the publicity checks they present to sweepstakes winners on television) or a very small piece of paper. Think about it. By definintion, whether coming in a large or small envelope, it conveys to you E100,000,000.00 of "promissory" value.

Now, imagine that instead of a check, you could arrange to have your trade surplus settled with a box of Gold that the new-fangled *reliable* market of the world says is world E100,000,000.00 in value.

Think about it... it really doesn't matter at all if that box *reliably* marketable at E100,000,000.00 contains a large amount of Gold or a small amount. Either way, it's still E100,000,000.00 -- in real, tangible form.

Big or small is irrelevant, and numbers exist for the sake of accounts. What it all comes down to is the same choice we face today. That is, whether to try to tenuously hold our value in the form of defaultable, hyperinflatable paper promises, or to definitely hold it in the real form of Gold.

Big checks, little checks, big boxes, or small... The present marketable value is a wash, and its the reliability going forward that's all that really matters in choosing between paper or metal at any coming price. And on that score, choose Gold every time.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle
GratefulForGold
(09/21/2004; 21:29:21 MDT - Msg ID: 124580)
Gold for Oil (I guess)

Please help me understand something I have apparently missed.

If oil-producing countries should happen to require some gold along with US$ or $Euro or any other currency du jour desiring to buy their oil -- why would that oil-producing country determine the gold in currency rather than ounces? It seems far simpler to me to say that I (oil-producing country) will sell you oil for your currency plus so many ounces (kilos, tonnes) of gold. That, it seems to me, would bypass the manipulated currency price of gold and achieve the value desired. No?

Sorry, I've probably missed something and am seeking a "quick fix" of an answer!

Many thanks, kind gents, for sharing your understanding!

Lady GFG
Chris Powell
(09/21/2004; 22:23:37 MDT - Msg ID: 124581)
Replying to Invisible Hand about GATA and some philosophy
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/2387Invisible Hand, I think you misconstrued the GATA
dispatch of the other day.

The comment you found "disgusting" was not
from GATA but was a quotation from Dennis
Gartman in The Gartman Letter. He's the one
who said: "Conspiracies rarely exist, and when
they do, they are far more often than not
exposed."

The link to the GATA dispatch quoting and
mocking Gartman for that comment is below.

You may feel sorry for "honest companies like
Infineon," and GATA has no special knowledge
of Infineon's anti-trust problem beyond what
was reported by news organizations the other day,
but Infineon DID plead guilty, and price-fixing
conspiracies long have been and remain common,
no matter what Dennis Gartman says.

Yes, anti-trust law has its ironies and arguable
points, such as those Alan Greenspan cited, the
definition of predatory pricing being among them.
But even anti-trust law's toughest critics might
admit that what Infineon has confessed to is and
always should be against the law. Let's not throw
out the most established principles of preserving
free markets because there may be some controversy
at the margins.

When GATA began we did not realize that
governments were fully behind the rigging of
the gold market. We first perceived the direct,
public actors in the market, the bullion banks
and the miners, and eventually tracked them
to the doors of the central banks. But that
hardly makes the bullion banks and their
accomplices, the heavily hedged miners,
particularly Barrick Gold, "innocent."

Indeed, in the Blanchard case in New Orleans,
U.S. District Judge Helen Berrigan explicitly
rejected Barrick's argument that it should not
be sued because it was really only carrying out
central bank policy toward gold. No, the bullion
banks and the miners have their own individual
responsibility under the law, just as we all do.

GATA's idea, and now Blanchard's, is that if
the law can be brought to bear against the
government's surreptitious agents -- not so
surreptitious anymore, in light of Barrick's
admission -- the government will have to carry
out its gold policies IN THE OPEN and thus
acknowledge that it has been rigging the gold
market. That will be enough to change
everything. It will convey equal information
to all market participants.

Surely, Hand, you do not believe that, in
quoting that old Latin maxim, GATA would want
to blow up the world. That maxim is not some
messianic hallucination. To the contrary, it has
been quoted in courts through the ages to
signify that justice should be done no matter
how inconvenient it proves to the beneficiaries
of injustice, and no matter how powerful and
established those beneficiaries are.

This assertion is grounded in the belief that
there are certain eternal moral absolutes, even
though we may not know them all at once or all
agree on them.

For example, a thousand or a million or a hundred
million people may derive their livelihoods and
even their whole civilization by sucking the blood
of a few people, but even if a whole civilization
is built on such a wrong, justice demands that it
be brought down and remade. If the United States
thought differently, it would still have slavery.

Regulating markets, even outlawing markets, IN
THE OPEN, is one thing. Rigging markets
surreptitiously so that the powerful may prey
upon the weak is another.

But I prefer the way Chesterton put it at the end
of "What's Wrong With the World"....

"A little while ago certain doctors and other persons
permitted by modern law to dictate to their shabbier
fellow citizens sent out an order that all little girls
should have their hair cut short.

"I mean, of course, all little girls whose parents were
poor. Many very unhealthy habits are common among
rich little girls, but it will be long before any doctors
interfere forcibly with them.

"Now the case for this particular interference was this:
that the poor are pressed down from above into such
stinking and suffocating underworlds of squalor that
poor people must not be allowed to have hair, because
in their case it must mean lice in the hair. Therefore,
the doctors propose to abolish the hair.

"It never seems to have occurred to them to abolish
the lice. Yet it could be done.

"As is common in most modern discussions the
unmentionable thing is the pivot of the whole
discussion.

"It is obvious to any Christian man (that is, to any
man with a free soul) that any coercion applied to a
cabman's daughter ought, if possible, to be applied
to a cabinet minister's daughter. I will not ask why
the doctors do not, as a matter of fact, apply their
rule to a cabinet minister's daughter. I will not ask,
because I know.

"They do not because they dare not. But what is
the excuse they would urge, what is the plausible
argument they would use, for thus cutting and
clipping poor children and not rich?

"Their argument would be that the disease is more
likely to be in the hair of poor people than of rich.
And why? Because the poor children are forced
(against all the instincts of the highly domestic
working classes) to crowd together in close rooms
under a wildly inefficient system of public instruction;
and because in one out of the 40 children there may
be offense.

"And why? Because the poor man is so ground down
by the great rents of the great ground landlords that
his wife often has to work as well as he. Therefore she
has no time to look after the children; therefore one in
40 of them is dirty.

"Because the workingman has these two persons on
top of him, the landlord sitting (literally) on his stomach, and the schoolmaster sitting (literally) on his head, the workingman must allow his little girl's hair first to be neglected from poverty, next to be poisoned by
promiscuity, and, lastly, to be abolished by hygiene.

"He, perhaps, was proud of his little girl's hair. But he
does not count.

"Upon this simple principle (or rather precedent) the
sociological doctor drives gayly ahead. When a
crapulous tyranny crushes men down into the dirt, so
that their very hair is dirty, the scientific course is clear.

"It would be long and laborious to cut off the heads
of the tyrants; it is easier to cut off the hair of the slaves.

"In the same way, if it should ever happen that poor
children, screaming with toothache, disturbed any
schoolmaster or artistic gentleman, it would be easy to
pull out all the teeth of the poor; if their nails were
disgustingly dirty, their nails could be plucked out; if
their noses were indecently blown, their noses could
be cut off. The appearance of our humbler fellow citizen
could be quite strikingly simplified before we had done
with him.

"But all this is not a bit wilder than the brute fact that
a doctor can walk into the house of a free man, whose
daughter's hair may be as clean as spring flowers, and
order him to cut it off.

"It never seems to strike these people that the lesson
of lice in the slums is the wrongness of slums, not the
wrongness of hair. Hair is, to say the least of it, a
rooted thing. Its enemy (like the other insects and
oriental armies of whom we have spoken) sweep upon
us but seldom. In truth, it is only by eternal institutions
like hair that we can test passing institutions like
empires.

"If a house is so built as to knock a man's head off
when he enters it, it is built wrong.

"The mob can never rebel unless it is conservative, at
least enough to have conserved some reasons for
rebelling. It is the most awful thought in all our anarchy
that most of the ancient blows struck for freedom would
not be struck at all today because of the obscuration of
the clean, popular customs from which they came.

"The insult that brought down the hammer of Wat Tyler
might now be called a medical examination. That which
Virginius loathed and avenged as foul slavery might now
be praised as free love. The cruel taunt of Foulon, 'Let
them eat grass,' might now be represented as the dying
cry of an idealistic vegetarian.

"Those great scissors of science that would snip off the
curls of the poor little schoolchildren are ceaselessly
snapping closer and closer to cut off all the corners and
fringes of the arts and honors of the poor. Soon they will
be twisting necks to suit clean collars, and hacking feet
to fit new boots.

"It never seems to strike them that the body is more
than raiment; that the Sabbath was made for man; that
all institutions shall be judged and damned by whether
they have fitted the normal flesh and spirit. It is the test of political sanity to keep your head. It is the test of artistic sanity to keep your hair on.

"Now the whole parable and purpose of these last pages, and indeed of all these pages, is this: to assert that we must instantly begin all over again, and begin at the other end.

"I begin with a little girl's hair. That I know is a good thing at any rate. Whatever else is evil, the pride of a good mother in the beauty of her daughter is good. It is one of those adamantine tendernesses which are the touchstones of every age and race. If other things are against it, other things must go down. If landlords and laws and sciences are against it, landlords and laws and sciences must go down.

"With the red hair of one she-urchin in the gutter I will set fire to all modern civilization.

"Because a girl should have long hair, she should have
clean hair; because she should have clean hair, she should not have an unclean home; because she should not have an unclean home, she should have a free and leisured mother; because she should have a free mother, she should not have an usurious landlord; because there should not be an usurious landlord, there should be a redistribution of property; because there should be a redistribution of property, there shall be a revolution.

"That little urchin with the gold-red hair, whom I have
just watched toddling past my house, she shall not be
lopped and lamed and altered; her hair shall not be cut
short like a convict's. No, all the kingdoms of the earth
shall be hacked about and mutilated to suit HER.

"She is the human and sacred image; all around her the social fabric shall sway and split and fall; the pillars of society shall be shaken, and the roofs of ages come rushing down, and not one hair of HER head shall be harmed."
968
(09/22/2004; 00:45:07 MDT - Msg ID: 124582)
Russia to cooperate with Iran in fuel-and-energy area
02-09-04 The interaction between Russia and Iran in the fuel-and-energy area was discussed by ambassador at large Igor Yusufov, the special envoy of the Russian president for international energy cooperation, and Iran's ambassador to Moscow Gholamreza Shafei.
The parties "exchanged opinions on the state of Russo-Iranian relations with the emphasis on the prospects for bilateral interaction", and also "discussed questions of settling the legal status of the Caspian", the Foreign Ministry noted.
Source: Neftegaz.RU
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Russia and Iran cooperating in energy matters ! Washington is not going to like it !
968
(09/22/2004; 01:00:23 MDT - Msg ID: 124583)
Russia unveils pipeline development plans to France and Germany
31-08-04 Vladimir Putin has given German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder and French President Jacques Chirac a sidelight on Russia's plans for the development of the national pipeline system.
The French and German leaders said that "the Russian government is paving ground for boosting the export of energy resources by encouraging the development of pipeline transport," presidential aide Sergei Prikhodko told after the trilateral summit talks in Sochi.
Chirac and Schroeder have been provided with information on the construction of the Baltic pipeline system, development of the Northern gas pipeline, Prikhodko said.
"It was important for the German and French leaders not just to hear assurances from the Russian leadership but also to learn of its concrete steps towards stepping up the production and export of energy resources," Prikhodko noted.
He explained that the energy theme emerged at the troika meeting in discussing the Middle East and Iraq situation, which affects the sustained and continuous shipments of oil to the world market.
"In this connection, the Russian president reminded his colleagues that Russia has never violated its obligations in the supply of gas and holds the same position in oil supplies," the presidential aide said.
As regards international problems in discussion in Sochi, Prikhodko said that, except Iraq and the Middle East, the three leaders spoke of the Nagorny Karabakh settlement, the situation in Georgia and Transdniestria. The issue of the Russian-speaking population in Latvia and Estonia was also raised at the talks, Prikhodko said.
"It was not the Russian side but our guests" that brought up the subject of observance of European standards regarding the ethnic minorities in the Baltic countries.
Source: Russian Information Agency Novosti
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
More oil cooperation between Europe and Russia !
Belgian
(09/22/2004; 01:04:03 MDT - Msg ID: 124584)
@GAB (all)
We all have the same problem : We aren't seeing THE BIG PICTURE !!!

We speak nice sounding words, like "Wealth Consolidation" etc...but do we really *understand* what we are saying !?

WHY...repeat...* WHY *, is GOLD so cheap !!!-??? The answer is incredibly simple : Because this scarce Universal Wealth must remain available at any cost.

The whole world agreed with this and therefore we cannot speak about an evil "conspiracy", against Gold. A majority accepted to live on the "dollar-standard" and felt comfortable with it. It worked and those very few who wished to consolidate with Gold, were able to do so.

Billions of people are daily struggling to survive, whilst a few are drawning in masses of confetti. But the extreme poor and the extreme rich, *know* what Gold Wealth Consolidation, exactly means. And they have been served, GAB...they were able to accumulate and trade Physical Gold
at a very *convenient* price. In this sense, Gold was given a very specific, circumscribed freedom. The gold-fish in its bowl. How free or unfree is that gold-fish in its bowl or pond !?

Oil...oil-wealth, is part of the extreme riches and has been allocated Gold privileges...as have been the very poor.

The world's Central Bankers and their politicians do have common interests. They agreed on the convenient, very limited, Gold-freedom for the time being. They (we) received...were assured of...cheap and abundant flows of oil, the very fundamental of...everything, directly or indirectly. In the past 3 decades, it was Saudi Arabia, that was oil's central bank. This Saudi CB was able to take Gold out of the available pool in many, many different ways.
This Saudi Oil Central Bank, organized the globe's "oil flow" as smoothly and as conveniently possible...in exchange for the BIG GOLD PRIVILEGE !!! No, they don't have a...one... Fort Knox. Their GOLD is everywhere.

CBs + BBs + goldmines + LBMA + the Gold-faction of the organizing financial brotherhood...all have contributed to the "availability" of the scarce Gold and the manipulation/intervention/containment of it as to direct/guide the Gold where it was demanded. The broad middle base between extreme poor and extreme rich, has been benefitting from this system. This middle class developed economically, whilst getting more and more "addicted" to *easy oil* ...the basis of all easy money (economy). That's how we got through the forgotten seventies oil-drama-crisis.

The above is the reason WHY Gold remained...had to remain so extremely undervalued in its PRICE EXPRESSION...! If...IF, Gold was really "unimportant" (commodity status)...its price could easely have gone to the stars...already long ago. Gold could have been "cornered" by any pool of speculators...if,...IF, there wouldn't have been the vital "need" for the existing (dying) paper-goldmarket ...as the "instrument" par excellence to "GUIDE" the Gold-Flows + all the beneficial, interventional side-effects this brings !

GAB, I'm trying to explain/argument, WHY it speaks for itself that oil-for Gold is a discretionaire/subtle affair and NOT so obvious to/for the outside world. One never knows where the Gold comes from or where it goes to...where it has been and where it is staying. A BIG difference/contrast with all traceable paper...as the manipulative vehicle par excellence.

After decades of smoking, sigaret makers are being sued...but has anyone ever asked WHY so enormous amounts of paper-gold have been traded on LBMA !? The equivalent of more than a thousand tonnes of GOLD PER DAY (visible + unvisible) !!! How can we possibly expose the whole truth about Gold for oil, in such a well organized and agreed on, labyrinth ? Gold has been marginalized...brought out of sight for the broad middle class. The masses of poor gold-holders-accumulators, never asked questions and the extreme rich profitted permanently of the easy, cheap available Physical. Much small stashes of "private" Gold have been lured out of their vaults through this master perception- building of...Gold is obsolete...an archaic relic of the past. Very difficult to fight (to resist) this overpowering anti Gold force. In analogy with the organized paper-fiestas that can "overvalue" any paper, anytime, anywhere.

That's WHY A/FOA, talked about "Giants" ! Those giants still know what consolidating Wealth, really means. We, the shrimps, simply have no other ambition than make a quick (paper) buck and believe complacently that we are smarties. How easy for the manipulators/interventionists.

If,...IF it were common sense that oil-Value was (is) bartered for Gold-Wealth...the utmost importance of GOLD would be dangerously exposed to the (westerenized) middle classes. Paper-gold trade volumes would be a thousand times smaller and PHYSICAL GOLD IN POSSESSION would be numero uno ! Hey, thats exactly how the "dollar-paper" has been introduced and established as reserve without intrinsic wealth significance. How smart ! Do you really think that those huge Giants are sleeping on paper-dollar matrasses...getting thicker and thicker ??? And there are not only those private Giants, but all CBs together are counting also as a collection of Gold Giants (30,000 tonnes out of 150,000). All these different Gold Giants don't want to destroy the global economy with a sudden unbridled hegemony of Gold-rule. It is here that the concept of a euro-FREEGOLD market, comes in. The "old" dollar-world is mutating ! China-India and the oil-phenomenons, are here to stay. The dollar-reserve system is toast. This old system has served Another world...thanks and goodby.
968
(09/22/2004; 01:08:26 MDT - Msg ID: 124585)
Iran supplies 17 % of Japan's crude demand
01-09-04 Iran, the third supplier of Japan's energy provides 17 % of its consuming crude oil, The Iranian ambassador to Japan Ali Majedi said. Majedi referred to the recent developments in Iran-Japan economic relations and said that Japan has been top on the list of Iran's commercial partner since 2000, adding, "The trade volume between Iran and Japan reached $ 8.570 bn in 2003."
"Japan's exports to Iran have increased from $ 800 mm to $ 1.120 bn in 2003," he said.
The Iranian ambassador to Japan also stated that energy was a new economic link between Iran and Japan, adding that Japan has made good investments in Iran in the oil and gas fields. Majedi was obviously referring to the signing of the contract for developing the giant Azadegan oilfield on February 18, 2003.
Common economic interests between Iran and Japan has led to the boosting of Japan's cooperation with Iran in the fields of oil, gas and petrochemicals as well as other industrial activities such as auto-manufacturing, steel production and construction of power plants, he added.
Majedi also expressed Iran's readiness to establish joint direct investment with Japan. "Direct foreign investment is the only way for bringing modern technology into Iran," he said.
Elsewhere in his remarks, the ambassador pointed to cooperation in tourism and said that three teams from Iran's Cultural Heritage and Tourism Organization (ICHTO) were dispatched to Japan to attend training courses.
Source: Tehran Times
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Japan and Iran cooperate on oil projects ! If Japan and Russia cooperate with Iran, who is going to vote for sanctions in the UN security council on Irans' nuclear projects ? The US can be isolated again in their nuclear discussions with Iran.
968
(09/22/2004; 01:16:04 MDT - Msg ID: 124586)
Iraq imports 21 mm litres of petrol daily
28-08-04 The Iraqi Oil Ministry imports 21 mm litres of petrol daily to suffice the needs of 106 gas stations all over the Iraqi capital Baghdad, as well as other stations spread all over Iraq.
An industry source said that the total direct and indirect losses of the oil sector are estimated at $ 1.7 bn, indicating that the exportation pipelines were sabotaged about a year ago causing losses of about 2.7 bn.
Source: PetroEnergy Information Network
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Iraq can't even provide its own oil needs !
Belgian
(09/22/2004; 01:49:51 MDT - Msg ID: 124587)
@ GFG
Maybe you remember the good (?) old days of " a dollar as good as Gold"...? That's gone completely.
Tomorrow, the euro will become "THE" Gold-Associated currency..."used" as the numeraire to "EXPRESS" the permanent evolving Gold-Value, pricewise in a PHYSICAL REAL FREEGOLD MARKET !!!

Oil wishes to get away from an old dollar (dollar-reserve) that is losing its intrinsic strength(worth). Oil wishes a currency that is "ASSOCIATED" with the unique, universal Gold-Value. It is the word, "associated", that is the most difficult to grasp. The Gold, physically in your hand is the "anti-thesis" of the dollar, Gold's present numeraire as to express Gold's price. Gold wishes to have Another numeraire that "associates" with Gold's Value. And all numeraires (fiat confetties) are fabricated stuff by official managers. Those managers determine their respective numeraire's stance, towards Gold...
How good or bad is my confetti in relationship to Gold !? And the Gold-owners, at their turn, judge how close or far away the confetti is from Gold. The euro is marking its "Gold-reserves" to the market. Reserves (and the -changing- management of it) are the mirror of the related currency.

Try to place the changing function of GOLD into the huge big picture of the world's currencies and their differing managements as main element in the economical happening of pricing-buying-powers!
Belgian
(09/22/2004; 03:21:28 MDT - Msg ID: 124588)
Trichet - Brussels
: " Oil-prices don't threathen price-stability " !!!
How can it be that this C-Banker is so sure/convinced about this (bold) statement...!? Because...he is holding the "euro" in one hand and future FreeGold in the other. All were looking at the �-$ exch.rate, whilst he was speaking.

IRs are too low for the slow growing economy...This is NOT a contradiction. Too much "easy money", through too low IRs, is nefast (inappropiate) for the existing (future) growth rythmes. The dollar wants much more money into the system...the euro wants much less money or the appropiate amount in proportion to the real growth. Huge difference in the management of the ($-�) money masses. Explains why the euro is stronger in Gold than the dollar ! Merci Jean Claude.
Topaz
(09/22/2004; 03:27:43 MDT - Msg ID: 124589)
DX defying gravity.
http://www.futuresource.com/charts/micro.jsp?s=GC1%21&s=DX1%21&s=TYXY&s=CL1%21&s=&s=&s=&s=&p=D&v=15&b=LINE&d=LOWThe push-pull of Bonds and Oil on DX is intensifying and a strong move VERY shortly is guaranteed imo. Gold is presistently strong still and I can't recall it (Gold) being so for quite some time ...Years perhaps!
Belgian
(09/22/2004; 04:34:05 MDT - Msg ID: 124590)
More on Trichet !!!
Breaking news imo : Trichet is urging non Euroland nations ...NOT TO ***- RUSH -*** INTO EURO RESERVES... !!!
This says it all, regardless of any other interpretation.
EURO FREEGOLD IS DEFINITELY COMING !!!

-----

Read Robert Blumen's brilliant insights in his GE-essay : " Weimar and Wall Street".

Islamic states are expanding "banking without IRs". Isn't it Gold that carries no IR !?

@ 968 : - Total is taking a 25% stake in Russian Novatek gas producer.
- Royal Dutch/Shell is selling assets to invest in oil-reserves.
misetich
(09/22/2004; 05:37:20 MDT - Msg ID: 124591)
US Hill Democrats See Large Deficits in Bush Domestic Agenda> Sep 21 / 12:54 EDT
http://www.economeister.com/reg/popup/single_story.jsp?prod=114&ts=1095785640000&sn=1&banner=mainwireSnip:

WASHINGTON (MktNews) - Seeking to nudge fiscal issues into the 2004 campaign, House Democrats released a memo Tuesday saying the domestic agenda that President Bush announced at the Republican convention has a "multi-trillion dollar price tag" that would propel the U.S. into an era of endless deficits.
..................
"Just making permanent the tax cuts that are set to expire in 2010 will cost $1.1 trillion from 2010 to 2014 alone. Such proposals are not compatible with reducing the record deficits that have occurred under this administration," the memo says.
.....................
The report tried to link large deficits and rising debt to higher long-term interest rates and to an uncertain future for Social Security and Medicare.

Meanwhile, congressional Republicans have blasted Democratic
presidential nominee John Kerry's fiscal proposals, charging his program would also lead to much higher deficits.
*************
Misetich

Budget Deficits are set to continue in the future - adding to the garguntulan cumulative "cash basis" deficit of

09/20/2004 $7,352,526,313,993.80

...on accrual accounting basis such deficit is in excess of $44 trillions as per former Treasurer O'Neil and growing annually by 3 trillion (as per Gillispie Research)

...Trade deficits are growing - even though every conceivable methodology of "suppressing" its statistics has been deployed

The US is sucking up most of the world foreign investments and going NOWHERE - its supposed GDP growth is not creating enough jobs to accommodate the growing population

The 2004 Oil Shock And Awe is aimed primarily at US shores and its effects are being underestimated -

Corporate earnings growth is projected in single digits in 2005 -

IR are still are at "emergency rates" worldwide - and will remain so for the forseeable future as

Asset Deflation is the biggest fear

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
misetich
(09/22/2004; 07:01:36 MDT - Msg ID: 124592)
Bubble trouble
http://money.cnn.com/2004/09/17/real_estate/buying_selling/money_bubble_0410/?cnn=yesSnip:

Last year, 34 metro areas (15 of them in California) showed double-digit price spikes. Many homeowners seem to expect these kind of gains forever.
.....................
The median home now sells for more than twice what its occupants make; in some areas the price-to-income ratio is double that or more.

In Boston, the median home sells for 3.3 times median income. In San Diego it's 5.2 times and in San Francisco 4.2 times.
.................
Housing debt is getting worse

With $6.8 trillion in mortgage debt at year-end, banks now own 45 percent of our homes, the highest level on record.

And although interest rates have begun to climb, borrowers continue to embrace adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs), which will constitute an estimated 32 of mortgages financed this year, versus 19 percent in 2003.
....................
**************
Misetich

The housing bubble continues - mortgage scams are on the rise -

The "finance economy" has all their goodies in the housing basket

The big bet is against rising IR's as "price inflation is tame"

Housing and military spending and hence higher budget deficits are the pillars of strength in the US economy - yet both are non-reproductive and becoming saturated in the first and completely disastrous for the latter

Military spending

Snip

"Half of industry sales come from the Department of Defense and that market is going strongly -- that upturn started prior to Bush's presidency, with Congress having increased the defense budget significantly since 2000," he said.

Government-subsidized research and development budgets are now at record levels, and procurement of military aerospace equipment has risen sharply from the $47 billion range in the late '90s to just over $70 billion. Military operations and maintenance budgets are also up substantially -- and while exact amounts are difficult to measure, "they
have risen through the roof," Napier said.

http://www.economeister.com/reg/popup/popup_frameset.jsp?prod=62&disp=single_story&banner=mainwire_features


End of snip

The housing bubble is economy dependent - and as the US economy growth decelerates due to the effects and impacts of The 2004 Oil Shock And Awe, housing and stock market is likely to adjust downwards with disastrous consequences

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
Clink!
(09/22/2004; 07:55:24 MDT - Msg ID: 124593)
@ Misetich
http://worldmarket.blogspot.com/2004/09/comrade-faber-speaks-method-in-madness.htmlJust finished the speech from (ahem) Marc Faber which you brought to the forum yesterday. You forgot to mention that it is a MUST READ ! Excellent stuff, with just a hint of humor, too.
C!
misetich
(09/22/2004; 07:56:52 MDT - Msg ID: 124594)
Europeans wait nervously for the golden revolution
http://news.ft.com/cms/s/48d063cc-0c34-11d9-8318-00000e2511c8.htmlTwo mainstream articles on upcoming pending announcement on CB sales

Snips from FT

The biggest uncertainty is whether the 15 signatories to the new accord will be able to sell the maximum 500 tonnes a year set for the new five-year pact, up on the 400 tonnes a year under the existing sales programme. Central bankers say there are enough sellers of gold among the European central banks to fulfil the planned sales quota. But bullion traders say not enough central banks have committed to selling their bullion under the new pact. They see this as a sign that the banks may struggle to dispose of all the gold for sale.

Since the European Central Bank and 14 other European central banks announced in March that they planned to renew the existing five-year agreement, almost 1,400 tonnes of the planned 2,500 has been earmarked for sale. The bulk of these sale commitments have yet to be fully confirmed.

"We doubt whether the renewed agreement will lead to an increase in gold sales by central banks. Rather, we believe there is a strong possibility that the signatory central banks could end up selling materially less gold," said John Reade, a precious metals analyst at UBS.

However, one central banker said there was full commitment to sell the proposed amount. "I have no reason to doubt that this amount will be sold."
......................
However, the signatories are under no obligation to reveal when and how much gold they plan to sell. "There are no requirements for us to reveal our positions before the new agreement starts," said the central banker.

The Netherlands and Switzerland have been the clearest about their intentions. The Netherlands plans to sell 165 tonnes over the next five years. Switzerland said it would sell 130 tonnes, taking its bullion holdings from 2,600 tonnes in 1996 to about 1,300 tonnes.

Germany has said it has an option to sell up to 600 tonnes under the new accord and France has said it intends to sell 500 tonnes. However, the central banks of both Germany and France are battling with their respective finance ministries over how to spend the sale proceeds. Germany and France are the two biggest holders of gold within Europe and are key to the new agreement.

The position of the third biggest holder, Italy, is also unclear. The Bank of Italy said last week that it had no plans to sell its gold reserves, which amount to about 2,500 tonnes. However, bullion traders and analysts have said the Italian bank might still turn seller.

Uncertainty about the gold sales would only affect prices if the banks were to announce that they were unable to sell the full amount.

End of FT snip

India Times Snips

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/859068.cms

"We know that there's been quite a lot of comment saying that the quota won't be filled. We feel that it will be filled," Jessica Cross, chief executive of the Virtual Metals consultancy, said, adding "Why would they have increased the sales unless they were intending to fill them?"
.................
Some 1,700 tonnes of the planned sales have come to light so far, but much confusion surrounds how and when some major sellers will act.

Germany, the world's second biggest holder of gold with reserves in excess of 3,000 tonnes, has yet to say whether it will sell. The Bundesbank said earlier this year it had secured an option to sell 600 tonnes under the agreement, but its president Axel Weber said earlier this year it would leave a decision until September.

France, just behind Germany with bullion reserves of more than 3,000 tonnes, said it planned to sell some 500 to 600 tonnes, with proceeds to be invested in interest-bearing instruments.

The profits from those investments would then be used for the state budget. The German central bank had similarly proposed that its gold sales be put into an interest-bearing account.

Bank of France governor Christian Noyer was quoted as saying in July that the bank was not ready to sell some of its gold to finance outright the French national budget.
....................
End of India Times Snips

Misetich

The key passage from above articles appear to be:

"However, the signatories are under no obligation to reveal when and how much gold they plan to sell. "There are no requirements for us to reveal our positions before the new agreement starts," said the central banker."

...suggesting that it will not be a straightforward announcement of FIRMED UP sales - since all three Germany, France and Italy have not reached agreements between their respective CB's and their government


A side comment to Jessica Cross a producer hedging promoting consultant .... The MARKET will BUY whatever CB's are ready to "sell", (since most of it has already been SOLD - though still shown on CB's as reserves) as GOLD and the US $ are tied to the hip and the prospects for the sickly US $ are not too bright

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
jenika
(09/22/2004; 08:33:08 MDT - Msg ID: 124595)
@gab
GAB
Just taking Saudi Arabia as an example, it couldnt buy much gold because it needs foreign reserves for other expenses yes? BUT if the price of gold rose, wouldnt the central banks sell/lease/talk about selling gold to help bring the price down? And if oil is priced in gold via US dollars, a low price of oil/gold helps keep the ecconomy chugging along.
Looking at 2003 figures, Saudi Arabia's dollar reserves reached levels not seen since the 80's with the higher price of crude in 2004 their reserves should be overflowing.
However towards the end of 2003 their dollar reserves fell and their gold reserves rose.
Correct me please, as im still trying to get my head around all this.

American Expression
(09/22/2004; 08:45:48 MDT - Msg ID: 124596)
Another Gold Manipulation Suit
https://www.savegold.com/
The Plaintiffs, Dr. Gregg McKenzie and A.J. Miller versus the Defendants, Barrick Gold Corp and J.P. Morgan Chase.

The civil suit alleges:

"Defendants have manipulated the price of gold, attempted to monopolize the spot gold market, and have restrained trade in that market, primarily through the use of gold derivatives, physical sales of gold on the spot gold market, and public misrepresentations."
Belgian
(09/22/2004; 09:00:13 MDT - Msg ID: 124597)
Euro-Gold - CB sales... Connect the dots...
Trichet urging those who wish to exchange dollars for euro...NOT to rush...RUSH...into the euro !!! Take it easy, whilst we talk and commit further to the goldprice-containment as good or as badly possible. This is all about the "orderly" transition from dollar-reserve to euro-reserve. Jessica & Co, know very well from where the winds are blowing. All goldmining will soon be operating under new rules and a new (rigid) gold-regime ! Not a funny prospect...becoming a 99,99 % state-enterprise !
968
(09/22/2004; 09:18:40 MDT - Msg ID: 124598)
@ Belgian
Will ultimately the US Treasury be a seller of gold to extend the dollar reserve timeline to buy time for the dollar and contain the goldprice ? European CB's can sell gold to make the switch to a euro reserve system (with a freegold market) as smooth as possible, but the gold they have sold is gone !!!
Aristotle
(09/22/2004; 10:33:04 MDT - Msg ID: 124599)
Jessica Cross is naturally worried because she works for Virtual Metals.
*VIRTUAL* Metals... the name says it all.

Unfortunately (for her, that is,) there's nothing *virtual* about cash-on-the-barrelhead FreeGold. Poor little thing... our favorite derivative princess is trying to keep up her brave face while knowing her house of cards is in for a serious shaking. How hard will it be for her to pick up the pieces and launch a new venture when she's losing street credibility with every continuing pro-*virtual* utterance right up to the end? Hers (and Andy's, too,) is certainly a prime case where it's better to remain silent than to open one's mouth always to the sour taste of their own foot.

REAL Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

PS. Belgian,
your observations about Trichet's comments are very insightful and excellent food for thought. You're absolutely right -- why would he feel compelled to urge his peers not to RUSH into euro reserves unless such a phenomena were indeed poised both likely and imminent.
TownCrier
(09/22/2004; 11:06:30 MDT - Msg ID: 124600)
Fed pumps fresh cash temporary and 'permanent', buys Treasuries outright
On a policy basis, with the market in overnight fed funds trading in line with the new FOMC policy target of 1.75%, the Federal Reserve's Trading Desk none the less intervened in the open market with an addition of fresh cash while sponging up some of the outstanding supply of Treasury inflation-indexed securities.

The day's operations began with an overnight RP injection of $4.5 billion, largely provided cheaply (sub-FOMC) at 1.66%.

The Trading Desk next set its will toward an outright purchase of $400 million of Treasury Inflation Protected Securities maturing between January 2007 and April 2032. As the Fed takes these TIPS into its own account, the supply of TIPS on the street is thus diminished by that amount, and the supply of money on the street is thus increased. And that's how it's done. So easy. Arguably too easy.

Easy come (dollar supply), easy go (purchasing power). Choose gold.

Call USAGOLD-Centennial today to discuss a diversification strategy that's right for you.
800-869-5115 Ext. 100

R.
misetich
(09/22/2004; 11:23:58 MDT - Msg ID: 124601)
Oil Tops $48 After U.S. Inventories Dive
http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=6306849Snip:

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil prices jumped more than a dollar, climbing above $48 a barrel on Wednesday after U.S. data showed the disruption caused by Hurricane Ivan had eaten into fuel stocks.
......................
Russian oil major YUKOS (YUKO.MM: Quote, Profile, Research) , which is struggling to pay a $3.4 billion tax bill, on Wednesday was forced to cut production.

Its main subsidiary Yuganskneftegaz cut output by 35,000 barrels per day (bpd), or two percent of YUKOS' production, after a power firm switched off supplies for non-payment, Interfax news agency reported
**********************
Misetich

China's avoricious demand keeps on growing as yesterday's AP reported

SHANGHAI, CHINA - China's crude oil imports jumped 37.4 percent in August to 70 million barrels, the government reported Tuesday.

http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/ssistory.mpl/business/energy/2808656

End of snip

Oil the gateway to FREE GOLD

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
TomJIl
(09/22/2004; 11:55:00 MDT - Msg ID: 124602)
@TownCrier: 'fed buys Treasuries outright'
I find your reports of the last few days amoung the most interesting news items around. Can you tell me a couple of things?

- Where do you come across the information you post?

- Is this a 'brand new' development?

Thanks,

- Tom
TownCrier
(09/22/2004; 13:18:11 MDT - Msg ID: 124603)
Thanks TomJIl
http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/index.htmlIn answer to your questions, I gather my information about the Fed's Trading Desk activities directly from the source at the New York Fed. See the URL I've provided. I would call your attention especially to the open market operations -- permanent and temporary.

As for this being a 'brand new' development, the answer is mixed. Any thorough contemplation of the Fed's long evolution in form and function since inception December 23rd, 1913 reminds us that precious little of what we see today is brand new on the scene, but rather is more like an organic process of growth where some ideas are tried, shelved, and retried again later in different combinations and altered strategies. So the answer regarding these open market operations is no, definitely not brand new in the sense that they've been around for decades, but yes, new in the sense of the unprecedented size and frequency of these operations. If you like, we could say the Fed is serving a 'brand new' agenda -- keeping the dollar in play under conditions like it has never seen before.

R.
USAGOLD Daily Market Report
(09/22/2004; 14:17:43 MDT - Msg ID: 124604)
Page Update!
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Daily Gold Market Report has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.

---closing market excerpts---

COMEX gold backtracked from a near three-week high on Tuesday, reached as the dollar sagged in anticipation of the Fed's increase of the fed funds target rate to 1.75 percent from 1.50 percent. December gold ended down $1.10 at $409.00. The high matched a 20-day peak Tuesday...

"Certainly gold was caught between both currency moves and oil moves," said Andy Montano, a director at bullion dealer ScotiaMocatta in Toronto. "Despite the euro's weakness and gold's initial move with it, gold managed to reverse itself, perhaps based on the higher oil price we saw," he said.

Brokers said most of the early selling came through one futures commission merchant and an investment bank.

"It came in $2.50 lower. ... You have got some funds trying to push it down," a second floor source said.

Dec gold gapped lower at the open amid the stronger dollar and fell to a session low of $405.80 an ounce. Prices then stabilized and later traveled to a session high of $409.20 in the last 35 minutes of trading...

----(see url for access to full news, 24-hr headlines)----
TheJuniorMiner
(09/22/2004; 14:57:37 MDT - Msg ID: 124605)
Humor

During the days of old
And knights so bold
The coin of the day
Was silver and gold

How would those rulers feel
Had they known how to steal
All that was needed
With money not real

Now the Fed is king
As to exchange must bring
A green piece of paper
To purchase anything

This game is a play
Unfold it just may
Give up some paper
For your gold today
misetich
(09/22/2004; 15:28:29 MDT - Msg ID: 124606)
THINGS YOU'VE SUSPECTED BUT WERE AFRAID TO ASK! -- THE CONSUMER PRICE INDEX
http://www.gillespieresearch.com/cgi-bin/s/article/id=300Snip:

"Government Economic Reports: Things You've Suspected but Were Afraid to Ask! -- The Consumer Price Index" - Sep. 22, 2004

Payments to Social Security Recipients Should be 43% Higher

Inflation, as reported by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is understated by roughly 2.7% per year. This is due to recent redefinitions of the series as well as to flawed methodologies, particularly adjustments to price measures for quality changes.
....................
Changes made in CPI methodology during the Clinton administration have understated inflation significantly, and, through a cumulative effect, have reduced current social security payments by 30% from where they would have been otherwise. That means Social Security checks would be 43% higher. In like manner, anyone involved in commerce, who relies on receiving payments adjusted for the CPI, has been similarly damaged. On the other side, if your are making payments based on the CPI (i.e., the federal government), you are making out like a bandit.
......................
Up until the Boskin/Greenspan agendum surfaced, the CPI was measured using the costs of a fixed basket of goods, a fairly simple and straightforward concept. The identical basket of goods would be priced at prevailing market costs for each period, and the period-to-period change in the cost of that market basket represented the rate of inflation in terms of maintaining a constant standard of living.

The Boskin/Greenspan argument was that when steak got too expensive, the consumer would substitute hamburger for the steak, and that the inflation measure should reflect the costs tied to buying hamburger versus steak, instead of steak versus steak. Of course, replacing hamburger for steak in the calculations would reduce the inflation rate, but it represented the rate of inflation in terms of maintaining a declining standard of living. Cost of living was being replaced by the cost of survival. The old system told you how much you had to increase your income in order to keep buying steak. The new system promised you hamburger, and then dog food, perhaps, after that.
.....................
When gasoline rises 10 cents per gallon because of a federally mandated gasoline additive, the increased gasoline cost does not contribute to inflation. Instead, the 10 cents is eliminated from the CPI because of the offsetting hedonic thrills the consumer gets from breathing cleaner air. The same principle applies to federally mandated safety features in automobiles. I have not attempted to quantify the effects of questionable quality adjustments to the CPI, but they are substantial.

Then there is "intervention analysis" in the seasonal adjustment process, when a commodity, like gasoline, goes through violent price swings. Intervention analysis is done to tone down the volatility. As a result, somehow, rising gasoline prices never seem to get fully reflected in the CPI, but the declining prices sure do.
................
As a result of the systemic manipulations, if the GDP methodology of 1980 were applied to today's data, the second quarter's annualized inflation-adjusted GDP growth of 3.0% would be roughly three percent lower (effectively netting to zero percent or below). In like manner, current annual CPI inflation is understated by about 2.7% against the pre-Clinton CPI methodology (would be about 5.7%), and the unemployment rate is understated by about seven percent against its original design and what many people would consider to be actual unemployment (would be about 12.5%).

As to the financial results of federal operations, the application of accrual accounting and generally accepted accounting principles to federal operations shows an actual fiscal year 2003 deficit of $3.7 trillion, as reported by the U.S. Treasury, versus the reported cash-basis $374 billion.
*************
Misetich

Most gold investor are well aware of government statistical manipulations

Our friends at GillispieResearch are to be commended on ANOTHER expose, following their published research on the understantement of government deficit, which was confirmed by former Treasurer Paul O'Neil

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
Belgian
(09/22/2004; 15:31:12 MDT - Msg ID: 124607)
@968
Oeioeiiii, those CB goldsales, again. I doubt that the US has already been selling any of its 8,125 tonnes of goldreserves !? Why should they...when they could easely urge others to do so in exchange for favors or special (protective) status. The US certainly succeeded in mobilizing private (and some official) Gold from many different origines, within the dollar block.
Gold can move around often, without having been displaced physically...and even return to its original owner. That's what the "paper-gold" is for. Gold commitments, gold derivatives, gold leases and loans, and possibly other hocus pocus, contribute to the voluntary opacity of the many trades. Find me a serious work on the "gold-market(s)".
Do we know the alpha and omega of the currency/IR/stockmarket interventions !?

The EU National Banks have certainly been selling (transferring) relative small amounts of Gold in Physical form to other CBs who wish to adhere (join) to the building euro-system. China, Middle East and probably some German/French Gold might be shipped to Russia (?). These goldsales are serving a higher cause and are certainly NOT catastrophe sales !!! I stick to the re-distribution theory (principle) as to form a cemented euro-block.

The US, will/might start selling and ship some of its Goldreserves at "much" higher prices at a much higher level of dollar-emergency. More goldsales are probably going to happen in (for) euro currency with flexible contracts that can be rolled over as to be finalized/concluded when the euro balances into the reserve status when it is appropiate for the dollar to sink.

Most of all goldsales must be framed as pre-cautionarry measures and insurance for the time that the dollar loses its general reserve status. This is clearly a euro initiative, offered to all dollar-reserve holders wishing to shift into the euro sphere and compensate dollar-losses. I don't see the US SELLING Gold, now...as to add more dollars to the stashes that it can print at its convenience. Some of the US Gold might initially be used to defend the dollar's "reserve" status at the critical juncture of the $ > �-reserve transition. It was the dollar's friends obligation to keep on supporting the dollar-strength with providing physical gold as to keep the paper-gold circus running.

But amidst all these uncertainties and guesses, we can conclude now, that any further possible physical CB goldsales are NOT going to have a substantional and lasting (down)impact on the $-goldprice. That's an enormous AND VERY SIGNIFICANT difference !!! WHY should the euro sell gold to strengthen the dollar and weaken its own �-currency at the same time and bringing its price-stability in danger with imported price-inflation !? It might be circumstantional evidence of my amateuristic theories (speculations) on the teneur of the different CB goldsales.

Official gold-reserves are being "EXCHANGED"...and this time for a much more important cause than ordinarry currency defense/intervention or pure mercantilistic (Gold hoarding) purposes. These exchanges are happening within a forming International euro-block with huge ambitions. It is evident that the two competitors (�-$) remain totally silent on this...for the time being. An orderly transition means not harming the dollar and the euro .

Of course, there will come a moment that this transition in progress isn't (cannot) evolving orderly anymore. Will see when it is happening. All depends on how the global situation is detoriating. How patient...co-operative, can and will, the important oil-force remain !? Once your GOLD is safely under your wings, physically in your nest...nothing can take you by surprise.
American Expression
(09/22/2004; 15:39:26 MDT - Msg ID: 124608)
10 Yr. Treasury Bond Yields Fall Under 4%
http://www.mises.org/fullstory.aspx?Id=1611Yesterday the FOMC raised federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 1-3/4 percent and a 25 basis point increase in the discount rate to 2-3/4 percent. Why would 10 yr. TSY decline today when yields should be rising from the FEDs
"accomodating monetary policy" which is really an official
"massive inflationary policy and position."

The U.S. is fighting at minimum three wars (Iraq, Afghanistan, War on Terror, not to mention the unpublished wars in Columbia, etc.), operating triple deficits at record debt levels while global energy components skyrocket.

This adds up to massive inflationary pressures that should be forcing GOLD and BOND YIELDS much higher! Yet bond yields continue to decline and POG rises. One must begin pondering whether the FED itself is capitulating to a deflationary crash and are now moving to protect their asset base and save the imperial peso from a faultering economy.

From the Baltimore Sun today:

"Interest rate boost sustains myth of a robust economy"

SNIPPET:

"We don't have a booming economy," says David Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch's chief North American economist. "We do not have a booming stock market. We don't have booming inflation."

http://www.baltimoresun.com/busines...usiness-indepth

The Adens Sisters recently wrote:

"We've had an unusual environment since 2000 where gold and oil rose, and so did bonds. Normally, rising gold is inflationary while rising bonds is a recessionary sign. In the past, they've moved opposite.*****

Gold has been stronger than bonds since 2001 and the ratio of these two markets has been rising. More important, the ratio broke above its mega 80 month moving average for the first time since 1984. This is not casual and it's saying gold will continue to outperform bonds in the years ahead. Does this mean inflation will be the greater threat as time goes on? This chart is telling us yes, which also reinforces higher gold and oil prices in the years ahead" --The Aden Sisters, "Chart Walk: Looking Good" (September 21, 2004)

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/aden/aden092204.html

-END-

Higher inflation means a much "worth-LESS" dollar and much greater gold prices. I for one do not believe the FED will allow the imperial dollar to be destroyed by furthering the hyper-inflation if it does not increase economic activity. Robert Blumen @ Von Mises Institute recently addressed this question and provided two separate end game scenarios:

"Weimar and Wall Street"
Robert Blumen

SNIPPET:

"Why do some periods of inflation metastasize into hyperinflation, and others not? A central bank may set out to generate a permanent state of inflation as a matter of policy. But they can only go so far down this road before reaching a fork: one path is to save their monetary system, the other is to destroy it. To save the system, they must stop the printing presses and allow the economy to suffer the pain of unwinding the distortions created by the prior inflation. If the central bank chooses to persevere in their inflation, hyperinflation will be unleashed."

-END SNIP-

The fundamental question is "has the permanent state of inflation" met the "forked road?" If it has, and the Central Bank has decided to save the dollar system, then we would expect to see the 10 year bond yields fall rapidly as the Central Bank(s) move into bonds to protect their asset bases. Note Central Banks is plural which would include U.S. trade partners that represent our biggest creditors. They too would be forced into the debtors sovereign bond issues to protect their previous gross and net sales and profits for later collection.

Roger Arnold several years ago wrote this warning:

The Two Faces of the FED:
Roger Arnold

The FED, reserve bankers and member banks are willing to incur a reduction in the value of their own asset base caused by the inflation they induce only if it causes an increase in economic activity. In the event that monetary stimulus fails to cause an increase in economic activity, the FED, reserve bankers and member banks will have NO ALTERNATIVE than to move to protect their own asset base ahead of the recessionary, deflationary effects of falling economic activity.

Once the FED and associated members make the decision that protection of their asset base is paramount to stimulus measures the yield on the 10 year treasury will begin to fall rapidly.

As this occurs those not understanding this will assume the FED is still attempting to stimulate and make the tragic mistake of attempting to buy stocks and bonds expecting a rebound.

What is actually happening is that the FED is capitulating to an economic crash themselves and moving to protect themselves at the expense of everyone else.

Also, please be mindful of the fact that the FED will NEVER tell us that this is what they are doing.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorial...oldr022203.html

Of course declining yields may be very misread, it could be a covert bailout of a huge financial entity such as Fannie Mae(FNM) or even Freddie(FRE).

"Financial Warning Sounded on Fannie Mae"

SNIPPET:

Fannie, one of the nation's largest and most complex financial institutions, guarantees payment on about $1.9 trillion of mortgage-backed securities.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dy...-2004Sep22.html

Indeed this perhaps could explain the unusual declining bond yields, however, this would not explain the participation of Japan and China unless they own a significant portion of this debt. How long would these entities support FNM, bonds or even the dollar if FNM is discovered to be the next Enron scandal?

"U.S. examining Fannie Mae accounting, company says"
Wed Sep 22, 2004 08:21 AM ET

WASHINGTON, Sept 22 (Reuters) - No. 1 U.S. mortgage finance company Fannie Mae (FNM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) said on Wednesday its regulator has discovered possible improper accounting practices and the Securities and Exchange Commission is conducting an informal inquiry as well.
The regulator, the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, has told the company the matters are serious and raise doubts about the validity of previously stated financial results and capital adequacy.

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=bondsNews&storyID=6304275

I cannot explain the whats and whys that are actually happening. Indeed my observations do know that events are not following the traditionally NORMAL course of the business and monetary cycle.

"Considering that on January 31, 1940, the first monthly Social Security retirement check was issued to Ida May Fuller of Ludlow, Vermont, in the amount of $22.54. It was not until the 1950 Amendments that Congress first legislated an increase in benefits. Current beneficiaries had their payments recomputed and Ida May Fuller, for example, saw her monthly check increase from $22.54 to $41.30."

http://www.ssa.gov/history/briefhistory3.html

Today the SSI retirement check for the average wage earner is over $1000.00 monthly. $41.30 (1950) to over $1000.00 (2004) represents a continued policy of hyper-inflation.

http://www.pueblo.gsa.gov/cic_text/fed_prog/socsecbf/PG9.jpg

Von Mises warns: "Inflation is a policy that cannot last"

"But then finally the masses wake up. They become suddenly aware of the fact that inflation is a deliberate policy and will go on endlessly. A breakdown occurs. The crack-up boom appears. Everybody is anxious to swap his money against "real" goods, no matter whether he needs them or not, no matter how much money he has to pay for them. Within a very short time, within a few weeks or even days, the things which were used as money are no longer used as media of exchange. They become scrap pater. Nobody wants to give away anything against them. It was this that happened with the Continental currency in America in 1781, with the French mandats territoriaux in 1796, and with the German Mark in 1923. It will happen again whenever the same conditions appear. If a thing has to be used as a medium of exchange, public opinion must not believe that the quantity of this thing will increase beyond all bounds. Inflation is a policy that cannot last" - Ludwig von Mises, Human Action, Chapter 17, "Indirect Exchange, the anticipation of expected changes in purchasing power

AND,

"A boom, artificially engineered by monetary and credit expansion, cannot last forever. It must come to an end sooner or later. For paper money and bank deposits are not a proper substitute for non-existing capital goods.

Economic theory has demonstrated in an irrefutable way that a prosperity created by an expansionist monetary and credit policy is illusory and must end in a slump, an economic crisis. It has happened again and again in the past, and it will happen in the future, too." --Ludwig Von Mises, Inflation must end in a slump (1951)

AND,

"The boom can last only as long as the credit expansion progresses at an ever-accelerated pace. - The credit expansion boom is built on the sands of banknotes and deposits. It must collapse. - There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion." --Ludwig Von Mises, Human Action

Mises believed the damage in the ensuing recession or depression depended on the scale of prior credit excesses."

AND,

"Asset price bubbles arise when money and credit expand well in excess of economic activity. The excess money winds up in the financial markets, propelling asset prices to unjustified and unsustainable levels completely out of proportion to the general price level. In this way, U.S. stock valuations over the last year went from ridiculous to insane." --Dr. Kurt Richebacher

This is what "insanity" looks like:

http://www.sharelynx.com/chartsfixed/USDJIND1800.gif


Protect yourself! Get gold.
CoBra(too)
(09/22/2004; 18:07:31 MDT - Msg ID: 124609)
American Expression - " Boom"

Sounds great! Just like POP (goes the weasel) and BUST goes the rest of the Dollar Derivative Debt... cb2
Goldendome
(09/22/2004; 18:39:38 MDT - Msg ID: 124610)
@ American Express. on interest rates

Hi, American Expression. I'll venture forth on your question about the 10 year note's interest rate falling today after the rate hike on short term paper yesterday. First, it is quite common to see the bonds and stock market move inversely as today--money leaving one sector for another,but NEVER gold for these birds!. Second, the short term interest rate boost is perceived as protecting the dollar?!! Har! Cough! Sputter--sure it is...but that's how it's seen. Third, and possibly important or maybe even non-existent, for I don't know: The fed may be buying 10 year notes and artificially controlling that market for awhile. Do you think they would do such a thing...??! Interesting that Mauldin somewhere wrote about the fact the Fed. has considered this as part of it's non-traditional market control methods, mentioning the 10yr specifically. Otherwise, I give up...and you tell us. I enjoyed the latter half of your post by the way. ....How will you know when we are in hyper-inflation? When the money in your hand is "hot" like a burning coals, and you can't get rid of it soon enough!

For general information to all: over the past two plus weeks, I've purchased ten $20 "Saints". We sure don't want to be standing there with too many "hot coals" in our hands when dollars seriously begin searching for meaning.
Goldendome
(09/22/2004; 19:24:12 MDT - Msg ID: 124611)
Is the dollar the Reichsmark of the twenty-first century?
The description below is of the build up to Germany's great inflationary blow-off of the 1920's; sounds so similar to today's U.S. dollar. Substitute a few current names and countries into the thoughts and process and Vol-la', we have the current situation...perhaps? Will it end the same? Time will tell in the long run; right now it's only whispering warnings.
---------------------------------------

A quote from page 31, of the book: Dying of Money.
By: Jens O. Parsson --1974

"As for speculators, the most extraordinary feature of the Reichsmark's joyride was not any attack against it but quite the opposite, an incredible ("pathological," it was later called) willingness on the part of investors at home and abroad to take and hold the torrents of marks and give real value for them. Until 1922 and the very brink of the collapse, Germans and especially foreign investors were absorbing marks in huge quantities. Only the international reputation of the Reichsmark, the faith that an economic giant like Germany could not fail, made this possible. The storage factor caused by the investor's willingness to save marks kept the marks from being dumped immediately into the markets, and thereby for a long while held prices in check. The precise moment when the inflation turned upward toward the vertical climb was undoubtedly timed by no event but by the dawning psychological awareness of the German and foreign investor that Germany was not going to back its money. With that, the rush to get out of the mark was on. Like a dam bursting, the seas of marks flooded into the markets and drove prices beyond all bounds. The German government strove mightily to ouflood the sea..."
Dollar Bill
(09/22/2004; 19:34:53 MDT - Msg ID: 124612)
.,.
Thanks for your work American Expression.
Glad to add you to my reading here.
Chris Powell
(09/22/2004; 19:59:52 MDT - Msg ID: 124613)
Blanchard seeks damages from Barrick and Morgan for all gold traders
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/2392Latest GATA dispatch....

Blanchard files its class-action suit
against Barrick Gold and Morgan Chase
seeking damages on behalf of all gold
investors.


To subscribe to GATA's dispatches, send an e-mail to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com
Gandalf the White
(09/22/2004; 21:08:16 MDT - Msg ID: 124614)
TAA TAA TAAAAAAAAAAAAA, TAA TAA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !
YES, Sir Smeagol, those were the trumpets sounding a "CALL TO CONTEST" again !!

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. has issued a "CALL to CONTEST" ---

TWO separate Contests ---- An Essay writing Contest, and a POG Guessing Contest !!

TWO separate groups of Winning Prizes to be awarded to the WINNERS !!!

The ESSAY CONTEST is a short ESSAY statement of at least twenty-five words, answering ONE of the THREE following Propositions:

1. If elected, George Bush would be good for gold because___________________

2. If elected, John Kerry would be for gold because_________________________

3. With respect to gold, the election doesn't matter because_______________

This Essay contest will run until Midnight, Sunday Oct. 2, 2004 (Denver time).

AND, after consultation with the Castle Barrister, it has been decided that the USAGOLD Forum will forego the restrictions on political postings during the time period of THIS ESSAY Contest. (The automatic posting deleation machine will be restarted on October 3rd !!!!)

The ESSAY Contest prizes are as follows:

A GOLD 10 Guilder Dutch King (0.1947 of Au) to the best Essay, and an one ounce Canadian Silver Maple Leaf to
each of the two runners-up.


ALSO A PRICE GUESSING CONTEST!!

In addition we will have a price guessing contest on the closing price of gold for the December Comex contract
(GC4Z) on Monday, October 4, 2004, ---BUT all entries must be posted to the TableRound before Midnight on Thursday, September 30th.

The POG Contest winner -- who will have the closest price guess to the actual closing price -- will receive an
one-tenth ounce GOLDEN Canadian Maple Leaf. There will be also be two runners-up prizes for the next closest prognostications --- each winning an one (1) one ounce Canadian Silver Maple Leaf.

====
THE RULES -- (We MUST have RULES !!) --- PLEASE READ !!

1) The Winner is the poster with the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX (most active) Decembr 2004 Gold Contract (GC4Z) on the date of Monday, October 4, 2004.

3) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $404.4)

4) "Guesses" shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT BOX location AND enclosed in markers of "Dollar Signs" so as to be OFFICIAL !
(Such as $$$$$$404.4 $$$$$$$ )

5) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".

6) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes MIDNIGHT (24:00) on Thursday, September 30, 2004.

7) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY as this part MUST accompany the Price prognostication --- In order for your entry to be valid, it must contain a few words on "Why you choose that number !" <===== NOTE !!!
---
LET the CONTESTS begin !
<;-)

====
ATTENTION all you LURKERS and Newbies !! --- COME ON IN !
http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/tools/guideandsignup.html
To be able to enter either or BOTH of the new CONTESTS you only need a FREE POSTING PASSWORD !
IF you do not have a FREE POSTING PASSWORD --- you can get one from the Town Crier at the LINK above ! He makes it easy and painless too. There may be FREE GOLD and Silver to be given away for your ESSAY and/or Price Pognostication.
<;-)

MK
(09/22/2004; 22:13:02 MDT - Msg ID: 124615)
To Gandalf and all. . . .The Sixth Birthday
This started out as an e-mail to my wizardrous friend, Gandalf the White, but became something I thought worth sharing with all of you:

Good contest announcement, Gandalf. Here we go. . . .

Didn't even remember our birthday until I just read your e-mail. Amazing....Six years old! That puts a special spin on this contest. The fact that we are still here and growing is a testament to all who have made this what it is. I don't think any of us would have truly understood our common attachment to gold and all that concerns it without this forum and the internet in general. It is a place where knowledge is exchanged; but more than that it has been the place where we have discovered that there is much more to gold than its investment prospects at any point in time. As I have said before, far from being the fringe element our adversaries would paint us to be, gold owners are among the finest people in the world -- the lawyers, doctors, businessmen, academics, artists, military, tradesmen and women and all the rest who share this common ground. I know this because these are the people I talk to every day. This forum is a testimony to that and if anyone doubts what I say, I would direct them to our archives and our Hall of Fame. They speak for themselves.

Ladies and Gentleman, please lift your glasses..........

Let me lead you in a toast to the Table!

To this Mighty Oaken Table of Yore. . . . . . .

Sundeck
(09/22/2004; 22:29:51 MDT - Msg ID: 124616)
$$$$$$420.0$$$$$
Why this price?

Well there is increasing "chatter" in the financial world about the "challenges" (it seems "problems" no longer exist in this euphemistic world) presented by the US budget and current account deficits, and there are increasing rumblings in high financial quarters about the need for the US-dollar to descend, but that we should NOT RUSH into the Euro. Then there is the observation that the last official rate increase was accompanied by a FALLING dollar, not a rising dollar (as occurred in the previous recent monetary tightenings). I sense the next leg down in the USDX has begun. How far will it get by 4 Oct? About 2% lower is my guess... This should send POG up about $10-15 as the golden bull gathers increasing momentum...hence about $420.0.

That's my guess and I'm sticking to it!

;-)
Sundeck
(09/22/2004; 22:48:33 MDT - Msg ID: 124617)
Sir Gandalf - Kerry "good" or "bad" for gold???
Errr...Sir Gandalf, the hobbits appear to have stolen a word from your question #2 about what John Kerry is going to mean "for gold". Did you mean "good" or "bad"??

Humbly yours...

:-)
Gandalf the White
(09/23/2004; 00:17:57 MDT - Msg ID: 124618)
THANKS, Sir Sundeck !
I guess that you can think you know my answer to that question.
I SHALL be making an ADDENDUM !!!
SOON.
<;-)
Gandalf the White
(09/23/2004; 00:21:47 MDT - Msg ID: 124619)
TAA TAA TAAAAAAAAAAAAA, TAA TAA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !

A CORRECTION added ! (Thanks, Sir Sundeck for everything.)

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. has issued a "CALL to CONTEST" ---

TWO separate Contests ---- An Essay writing Contest, and a POG Guessing Contest !!

TWO separate groups of Winning Prizes to be awarded to the WINNERS !!!

The ESSAY CONTEST is a short ESSAY statement of at least twenty-five words, answering ONE of the THREE following Propositions:

1. If elected, George Bush would be good for gold because___________________

2. If elected, John Kerry would be good for gold because_________________________

3. With respect to gold, the election doesn't matter because_______________

This Essay contest will run until Midnight, Sunday Oct. 2, 2004 (Denver time).

AND, after consultation with the Castle Barrister, it has been decided that the USAGOLD Forum will forego the restrictions on political postings during the time period of THIS ESSAY Contest. (The automatic posting deleation machine will be restarted on October 3rd !!!!)

The ESSAY Contest prizes are as follows:

A GOLD 10 Guilder Dutch King (0.1947 of Au) to the best Essay, and an one ounce Canadian Silver Maple Leaf to
each of the two runners-up.


ALSO A PRICE GUESSING CONTEST!!

In addition we will have a price guessing contest on the closing price of gold for the December Comex contract
(GC4Z) on Monday, October 4, 2004, ---BUT all entries must be posted to the TableRound before Midnight on Thursday, September 30th.

The POG Contest winner -- who will have the closest price guess to the actual closing price -- will receive an
one-tenth ounce GOLDEN Canadian Maple Leaf. There will be also be two runners-up prizes for the next closest prognostications --- each winning an one (1) one ounce Canadian Silver Maple Leaf.

====
THE RULES -- (We MUST have RULES !!) --- PLEASE READ !!

1) The Winner is the poster with the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX (most active) Decembr 2004 Gold Contract (GC4Z) on the date of Monday, October 4, 2004.

3) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $404.4)

4) "Guesses" shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT BOX location AND enclosed in markers of "Dollar Signs" so as to be OFFICIAL !
(Such as $$$$$$404.4 $$$$$$$ )

5) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".

6) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes MIDNIGHT (24:00) on Thursday, September 30, 2004.

7) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY as this part MUST accompany the Price prognostication --- In order for your entry to be valid, it must contain a few words on "Why you choose that number !" <===== NOTE !!!
---
LET the CONTESTS begin !
<;-)

====
ATTENTION all you LURKERS and Newbies !! --- COME ON IN !
http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/tools/guideandsignup.html
To be able to enter either or BOTH of the new CONTESTS you only need a FREE POSTING PASSWORD !
IF you do not have a FREE POSTING PASSWORD --- you can get one from the Town Crier at the LINK above ! He makes it easy and painless too. There may be FREE GOLD and Silver to be given away for your ESSAY and/or Price Pognostication.
<;-)
Gandalf the White
(09/23/2004; 00:30:12 MDT - Msg ID: 124620)
Happy Sixth Birthday -- 9/23/04
HAPPY 6th BIRTHDAY OAKEN TABLEROUND !!
I am proud to be amoung all you Goldhearts.
Let us work to make Year seven "GOLDEN".
<;-)
Topaz
(09/23/2004; 01:40:13 MDT - Msg ID: 124621)
$$$ 378.00 $$$
The more I look the less I like PoG @ it's current level. Whomever is orchestrating the BIG picture seem at a loss to lower DX against a rampant PoO and I'd expect some real warts to break through the surface any day now.
Ned
(09/23/2004; 04:11:30 MDT - Msg ID: 124622)
@ Topaz
Dear Sir,

Often I read your postings about your fabled dollar/POO/bonds relationship. I am sorry, I don't understand your thinking and as a consequence cannot comprehend your bearishness.

Please shed some light so that I can at least acknowledge where you are coming from.

Sincerely and thanks in advance.
Topaz
(09/23/2004; 04:12:10 MDT - Msg ID: 124623)
With respect to gold, the election doesn't matter because_______________
Current market action indicates the Election will be a secondary consideration when and IF we have one!! ... pre911 springs to mind however, should the status-quo be maintained, a rate-cut (or two) prior looks a sure bet imo.
Topaz
(09/23/2004; 04:36:14 MDT - Msg ID: 124624)
@Ned.

There appears a relationship between Bonds, $Cash and Oil which together form a definitive value (X)...or a Dollar/Oil standard, so that when (say) Oil rises in Dollars, DX rises and/or Bonds strengthen to seek equilibrium. This is also true for both DX and Bonds.
I've got a beercoaster formula which, I might add, needs tweaking regularly, that confirms this relationship and should it even loosely hold together, we're in for quite a ride in the very near future.

Hope this helps Ned.
misetich
(09/23/2004; 05:42:50 MDT - Msg ID: 124625)
Refineries ask to borrow oil from U.S. stockpile
http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/N22217948.htmSnip:

WASHINGTON, Sept 22 (Reuters) - Two U.S. refineries asked the Bush administration if they can borrow crude oil from the nation's emergency oil stockpile amid soaring prices and a supply disruption caused by Hurricane Ivan, a government source told Reuters on Wednesday.

U.S. crude oil futures ended above $48 a barrel in New York trading, surging more than $1.50 on a steep drop in inventories. Hurricane Ivan's path through the Gulf of Mexico last week forced companies to temporarily halt offshore production of about 8.5 million barrels of crude oil.

Bush administration officials are reviewing the requests -- one for 100,000 to 200,000 barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) and the other for 1 million to 2 million barrels -- said the source, who asked not to be identified.
.....................
The refineries, whom the source would not name, are seeking loans of so-called "sweet" crude, because it is easier to process into petroleum products than heavier grades.

An Energy Department spokesman said he did not know if any refineries had made requests to borrow oil.
....................
However, a temporary loan to oil refiners from the stockpile would technically be considered an "exchange" of oil, not a withdrawal or drawdown, under the Energy Department's program. In such an exchange, the stockpile must ultimately receive more oil than it loaned.
**************
Misetich

The 2004 Oil Shock And Awe is gathering momentum - The collateral damage to corporate earnings is just beginning to flourish

However, the full impact is yet to emerge as it typically takes 6-9 months to filter through the economy.

Within the next few months reports will reflect oil prices in the $30's and NOT the current $40's. The $40's + effects will show on/about January - February 2005

Any "temporary relief" brought on by the gimmick of strategic oil release will result in MUCH HIGHER oil prices later on.

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
Smeagol
(09/23/2004; 07:58:04 MDT - Msg ID: 124626)
!!!AIEE-*THUMP*!-OWwww!!!
What the-!! Ach! O, our head (rubbing)...oww...sss... well...we guesses we aren't going to fall asleep under this great Oaken Table again, are we, precious...we figured we'd found a nice hidey-sspot near the middle where we could lissten in at any time... there musst have been a lull in the conversation and we dozed off.... and it's been awhile ssince we sslept because the talk has been sso interessting lately... we forgot about that mighty Contesst-Horn that Ssir Gandalf carries... that was LOUD... and Oak is hard, too!

Ah, but look, we ssee dollar-signs and price possts... along with the stars. A Contesst! We musst get to work on our Guess and Essay!

S.
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(09/23/2004; 08:56:16 MDT - Msg ID: 124627)
... In Order to Form a More Perfect Union... (between You and Your Savings)
http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html

Arm yourself with knowledge
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(09/23/2004; 09:05:05 MDT - Msg ID: 124628)
The fruit of your labor: exchange today's harvest for timeless value!
http://www.usagold.com/buy-gold-coins.html

Swiss gold francs

Harvest Time
Whatever it is that you may have sown,
we'll give you the power to reap GOLD.

1-800-869-5115
USAGOLD-Centennial has over three decades of experience in the field!

Zhisheng
(09/23/2004; 10:18:51 MDT - Msg ID: 124630)
$$$420$$$ (2 in 1)
I guess early and often (oops meant early and high) to give all you others a good fair chance to beat me. And so far it has worked even beyond expectations. So that is my reason for this $420 guess.

As for the essay....

With respect to gold, the election doesn't matter because neither candidate has any intention of bringing income into line with expenditure. Whoever loses, the dollar WILL go down and gold WILL go up.
Zhisheng
(09/23/2004; 10:22:10 MDT - Msg ID: 124631)
****$420.10****
Oops...goofed. Have to up my ante. But I see I was right about the "early and often" after all.
Zhisheng
(09/23/2004; 10:23:56 MDT - Msg ID: 124632)
$$$410.1$$$
My prediction is a convergent algorithm.
Gandalf the White
(09/23/2004; 10:40:41 MDT - Msg ID: 124633)
Thanks Sir Zhisheng
ROFL
Early is GREAT --
OFTEN + is a little tooooo much !
Have you finished NOW ?
I have set these in CONCRETE.
<;-)
Gandalf the White
(09/23/2004; 10:54:24 MDT - Msg ID: 124634)
Thanks Sir Misetich for that early morning post !
The Hobbits loved that last line ! They are ROTF.
---
"However, a temporary loan to oil refiners from the stockpile would technically be considered an "exchange" of oil, not a withdrawal or drawdown, under the Energy Department's program. In such an exchange, the stockpile must ultimately receive more oil than it loaned."
**************
Does not that sound just like the CB and Bullion Banks GOLD EXCHANGES ? Of course the Energy Dept.'s "BOOKS" would show that the oil (Like the GOLD loans!) would still be in the Stockpile !!!!
Same ol'e GAME.
<;-(
Zhisheng
(09/23/2004; 11:03:57 MDT - Msg ID: 124635)
Apology to Gandalf
Sorry Gandalf. I'll take whatever you give me.
yellowmetal
(09/23/2004; 11:58:35 MDT - Msg ID: 124636)
Contest
With respect to Gold, the election doesn't matter because Gold will shine brightly once the veil of paper falsehood is removed by the natural forces of economics and exposed to the "masses"; a new beginning will emerge with the prospect of an "honest currency" on the horizon.
Gandalf the White
(09/23/2004; 12:19:01 MDT - Msg ID: 124637)
The POG Contest FIRST "King of the Hill" report !!! <;-)
Thursday 9/23/2004
GOLD COMEX Dec.2004 Contract
Open HIGH low SETTLEMENT Change
$410.3 $414.0 $410.1 $412.6 + $3.6
---
AND the present KING OF THE HILL is:
Sir Zhisheng !!
---
"Apology to Gandalf
Sorry Gandalf. I'll take whatever you give me."
---
Will this HONOR be enough ?
<;-)
Gandalf the White
(09/23/2004; 12:22:08 MDT - Msg ID: 124638)
TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA -- POG Contest UPDATE !
http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/tools/guideandsignup.html
Entries as of THURSDAY 9/23/04 at just about 12:20 p.m. Denver time !!!

Listed in order of decreasing values !
----

$$$$ $420.0 $$$$ Sundeck (9/22/04; 22:29:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 124616)

$$$$ $410.1 $$$$ Zhisheng (9/23/04; 10:23:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 124632)

$$$$ $378.0 $$$$ Topaz (9/23/04; 01:40:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 124621)
===
WOWSERS !!! Lots of available prognostication numbers within this "bracket" !
Hurry all you LURKERS, and get your Posting Authorization from the TownCrier.
Just go to the LINK, atop this message, and start reading.
<;-)
J-Bullion
(09/23/2004; 12:26:38 MDT - Msg ID: 124639)
****$427.40****
Federal_Reserves
(09/23/2004; 13:19:47 MDT - Msg ID: 124640)
$$$$$$ $399.30 $$$$$$$
The start of every month has been weak, pullback expected.
TBatler
(09/23/2004; 13:49:55 MDT - Msg ID: 124641)
Price contest
Hello every one,
I am new to this board, and I am not sure this is the right place to post this. If I am wrong hopefully some one will let me know.I want $402.9 if it is still available. I don't think the election is going to have major effect on the price of Gold. The regular factors (oil, war etc.) will continue to have their normal effect. The weather in the Caribian caused the latest spike and that is settling down. I hope I can find the discussions so I can lurk a while to get a feel for what is talked about.
T
TBatler
(09/23/2004; 13:58:26 MDT - Msg ID: 124642)
Guess
I didn't put the required $ around my guess I will try again
$$$$$$402.9$$$$$$
Reasons remain the same. Thanks for your patients with the rookie.
T
Boilermaker
(09/23/2004; 14:37:31 MDT - Msg ID: 124643)
Crude For Sale at NYMEX
Misetich and Gandalf,
These refiners needn't go the the government SPR to get crude, all they need to do is buy contracts at NYMEX and take delivery. I'm sure there's lots of oil ready to ship at NYMEX (smile). Each contract is 1000 bbls so if they need 100,000 bbls/day they just buy 100 contracts each day. The oil ships "F.O.B. seller's facility, Cushing, Oklahoma, at any pipeline or storage facility with pipeline access to TEPPCO, Cushing storage, or Equilon Pipeline Co., by in-tank transfer, in-line transfer, book-out, or inter-facility transfer"
Just like for gold, there's an ocean of paper out there just waiting for a buyer. But good luck putting paper oil in your refinery (or paper gold to barter with).
TomJIl
(09/23/2004; 15:18:45 MDT - Msg ID: 124644)
@Essay: With respect to gold, the election doesn't matter...
...(at a high level) because_______________

'Gold is economic freedom', and by extension, a significant element of freedom in a more general sense. Among the major world powers, the demands of the geopolitical climate going forward will not be conducive to having freedom be widely dispersed within their populations. The pressures of these demands will exist regardless of who occupies the White House and the results will not be good for, among other things, gold (in terms of it's utility to ordinary U.S. citizens.)
USAGOLD Daily Market Report
(09/23/2004; 15:36:41 MDT - Msg ID: 124645)
Page Update!
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Daily Gold Market Report has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.

---closing market excerpts----

COMEX gold rose to its highest price in a month on Thursday as strong oil prices fueled more institutional investor interest in the hard asset which can cushion portfolios against inflation.

Although dollar weakness supported the gold market overall, one analyst said there were more factors at work for the yellow metal.

"There really seems to be a little bit of strength here that goes beyond what we're seeing in the U.S. dollar," said Tim Evans, senior commodity analyst at IFR Pegasus. "I think gold is attracting a flow of fund buying and investment that perhaps goes a bit beyond the weakness in the dollar."

"It's gaining some momentum here, taking out some technical points on the upside," said David Rinehimer, head of commodities research at Citigroup Global Markets.

"Indirectly, it's probably taking direction from how high crude oil goes, because that's impacting inflation expectations, impacting interest rates and impacting the dollar. So that looks like, to me, the key variable right now."

December gold settled up 3.60 at $412.60 an ounce. Even as some speculated that a detrimental rise in energy costs will lead to Federal Reserve restraint in tightening monetary policy further, crude prices at $49 a barrel have sustained the specter of inflation.

Climbing base metal prices and higher crude oil values also played into a "broader commodity-based inflation," Evans noted. In addition, a lower Dow Jones Industrial Average Thursday likely sparked interest in gold as an alternative investment, he said.

Technically, Dec gold stands a good chance of getting through its Aug. 20 high of $416.80. If prices can trade above that level then they may eventually target the April highs near $431, Evans said.

------(see url for access to full news, 24-hr newswire)---
TownCrier
(09/23/2004; 15:38:31 MDT - Msg ID: 124646)
Pop quiz
How much have you learned about the nature of gold's price-discovery during your past few years of following the commentary at USAGOLD?

Hopefully you have come away with enough to properly dissect and analyze this excerpt, particularly the statement from Kamal Naqvi published by DowJones today:

------------------------
LONDON (Dow Jones)--
...[Gold] is supported by physical demand from India, where a good monsoon has left farmers with spare cash to invest in gold during the traditional Indian wedding season, which comes to an end in October-November, an analyst said.

...However, other analysts see the physical market as less important for the gold price. "We see the physical market as both a very distant secondary influence on gold prices and even then at best neutral for gold prices," said Kamal Naqvi, precious metals analyst at Barclays Capital.
------------------------

Repeating... "We see the physical market as ... a very distant secondary influence on gold prices."

This perspective is no surprise coming from Barclay's, one of London's primary bullion banks. As we've covered before, it is currently the vast monetary (paperized, derivative) usage facet of the gold market that sets the prices for the whole realm of interrelated bulliion banking activity: options, futures, forwards, swaps, loans, and including the relative trickle of physical transfers of ownership at the margin of it all.

It is precisely this "very distant secondary influence on gold prices" among the largely disassociated physical market that has provided the present world-class buying opportunity for gold advocates, while at the same time prompting some to cry foul and seek the end of this manipulation-via-monetization. The lawsuit against Barrick is one example of this vein.

As good an indication as any that a return to physical-based price-discovery is in the works is the "innovative" mark-to-market reserve structure employed in the design phase of the Eurosystem with a commitment among the member CBs to curb participation in gold leasing operations.

Until the arrival of the fully-fledged "free gold" market (as it has been coined in early days here by FOA), you can be sure of two things: 1) that no derivative form of paper gold is ever a SURE THING as is physical gold, and 2) that purchases of physical gold are an outstanding value bargain while still priced in association with these vast piles of inferior bullion banking instruments.

Call USAGOLD-Centennial today and become a gold-owner with grace and confidence from a firm, fundamental understanding of the forces in play.

R.
TownCrier
(09/23/2004; 15:47:36 MDT - Msg ID: 124647)
Gold rises nicely in both euro and dollars
http://www.usagold.com/gold-price.htmlsee chart at url

R.
TownCrier
(09/23/2004; 16:09:55 MDT - Msg ID: 124648)
Overdue answer for Smeagol
http://www.usagold.com/goldenchalkboard/gc_gold-trend.htmlSorry for the delay getting back to you on your question.

Don't see the EUR350 level as a policy target for future valuations. See instead a temporary focus of control, a line in the sand serving as a technical resistance "staging area" which will be decisively breached upward when the time is closer to ripe.

Or not.

;-D

R.
Great Albino Bat
(09/23/2004; 16:50:14 MDT - Msg ID: 124649)
A Smash Operation on Gold is Due...

Gold has been performing rather nicely the past few days.

The daily, predictable take-down of the price in NY has been noticeably absent for couple of days.

I suspect a smash is due. Tomorrow.

I would not be surprised to see gold taken down to $398.

It may recover, to say, $404.

Not to worry, this game - it is a GAME - will not last forever. Gold will win, as surely as water runs downhill.

Buy the dips! And thank the manipulators for another chance to load up cheaply.

The GAB
Federal_Reserves
(09/23/2004; 17:12:32 MDT - Msg ID: 124650)
Essay
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/M1. If elected, George Bush would be good for gold because___________________

The BUSH administration has been and will be very good for gold. Lets review the facts. In 2001 as this administration took over the government interventionist control room of the economy, gold was struggling at its 20 year lows, some said it was ready to crack to the 100's, yet gold completed a double bottom and started a new bull market. Twenty years of pain had ended for gold, marked by the double bottom and the arrival of GWB. Why did this happen? All the policy actions that make gold go up Mr. Bush pursues with vigor. This administration has lowered the dollar, even as they continued to build up record trade deficits which are reaching alarming levels, they reversed the budget surplus and created the biggest fiscal deficit in history. This fiscal imbalance now threatens the very heart of the social security system. Further we became engaged in a major international borderless war on terror, focusing on the ME - a war which has no real exit plan. The Federal Reserve for its part, remained in the back pocket of the administration, they provided accommodative below inflation rate FF rates leading to speculative action in the markets, and money supply growth exceeded the growth in inflation and GDP as well. As a result gold soared from the double bottom lows around 250-260 to over 430! I believe gold is now resting, consolidating, priming for the next wave up, and Mr. Bush and the continuation of his policies for another 4 years will have gold easily challenging new highs before the end of his next term. Bush has a track record of supporting gold. A vote for Bush is a vote for gold. Bush has the track record. That G in GWB stands for GOLD!








Smeagol
(09/23/2004; 17:30:08 MDT - Msg ID: 124651)
$$$$$ 398 .6 $$$$$

A Guess for the closing price of It on the 4th of October... we jusst feel It has been riding a little high lately... sso we ssubtracted two six dollar 'hits' from todays price in the box at the top of the page to arrive at this Guess.

S.

P.S., a HAPPY SIXTH to the Forum! (party favor horn sounds)
Gandalf the White
(09/23/2004; 17:41:44 MDT - Msg ID: 124652)
WELCOME Sir TBatler !!
I got BOTH your "entries" and you have found the correct seat at the TABLEROUND ! Stick around and join in the discussion anytime. Just follow the easy posting rules and everyone will treat you with respect. Is not that the truth Sir Smeagol ?
<;-)
R Powell
(09/23/2004; 17:47:27 MDT - Msg ID: 124653)
Naqvi of Barclay
As TownCrier mentioned, Kamal Naqvi of Barclays made some bearish comments today in regards to future gold prices. Naqvi was also interviewed on Bloomberg television early this morning. He also mentioned more central banks' selling as a factor limiting higher gold prices. The fact of the matter has been, that price has not proven to be a consideration in central bank gold selling in the past. In fact, many sold at the most unprofitable price levels. If he meant to imply that a higher POG would increase central bank selling, I believe he is mistaken. The W.A. also precludes such. Naqvi, also failed to make any mention of the heavy hedging (forward sales) from years past or the more recent unhedging of these positions by mining concerns. Also, no mention was made of unhedging caused by the end of the gold-carry trade. Imho, any mention of either selling or buying by any particular group...central banks, hedge funds, the general public, etc., used as an argument that the basic value of any particular item is destined to rise or fall is basically flawed. Why? For every unit sold, there is one bought and vice-versa. There can be no sale without a buy, it's that simple! Or, as has been mentioned here so often, selling is often reported but buying seldom is. Obviously, when there is more buying pressure, price rise...when there is more selling pressure than buying, prices fall. The fact that Naqvi reports central bank selling at all, and mentioned such while making no mention of the Washington Agreement or recent years' dehedging gives me the impression that his knowledge of the gold market is extremely limited or his intention is to express only bearish half truths. I found no value or insight in anything he said, except perhaps, a reinforcement of the belief that the so-called experts often aren't. (;>
rich


Goldendome
(09/23/2004; 18:00:15 MDT - Msg ID: 124654)
Short essay contest entry


If elected, President George Bush would be good for gold because...Well,lets look at some facts. Hasn't his first four years in office been a God-send for gold already? Gold's dollar value being up by nearly 50% in the President's first four years! With what we all know about his future plans, why should anyone believe that the President's next four years would be anything but favorable for the price of gold also? Golly, what more can we ask for? We have a federal government bigger, more expensive, and more invasive than ever. President Bush has fostered expensive wars (one can argue the point: whether needed or not). He and the Republican party have learned from their forty years in the wilderness, just how to buy votes and control both houses of congress: not simply with the old tax and spend methods of the FDR trained Democrats--NO--they have gone one step further--using tax-cut and spend programs, these tactics promise something for literally everyone; tax cuts for the wage earners and more freebies for the dependent classes in the form of Medicare spruce-ups, medical insurance assistance, corporate welfare, wasteful government procurements, and food program enhancements. Got a problem? Something that you want but can't afford to pay for? There will be a government program to provide it, if--there's a panting and demanding constituency with enough votes to be gained.

Under President Bush we have seen our Federal budget go from a surplus situation (granted with the social security surplus figured in) to a whopping deficit situation of nearly $450,000,000,000.00 per year, even with the SSI funds added in...and with much more in the way of deficits promised in the future! We have watched the continued nose dive of the current account deficit, like a boat sinking to the bottom, our national assets being turned into liabilities.

The dollar has been cheapened, counterfeited, flooded into the world at such a pace, as to embarrass anyone with an ounce of respect for this once trusted and well-thought-of currency. It is simply tragic and saddening to watch and to see the degree to which our government has abused it's defacto position as the holder of the world's reserve currency! All of this abuse will not go unpunished. At some point, the world's citizenry and governments will dishoard--throw up if you will, on this dollar gluttony. At that time, we will see the public panic and rush for the ages old store of wealth--Gold! The re-election of President George Bush should bring another wonderful four years for the price of Gold; I am much less enthusiastic about what it will mean for the future of anything else!

Thank you and with my respect, I am: Goldendome
R Powell
(09/23/2004; 18:07:21 MDT - Msg ID: 124655)
Another analyst
The early morning Bloomberg financial report from Wednesday last interviewed Jim Steele from Refco. His opinion of gold was bullish based on increased demand for physical to meet Asian and Indian demand for jewelry. Steele also clarified that jewelry possession in Asia is unlike that in most Western cultures where jewelry is often viewed as an extravagent luxury. Certainly demand for jewelry has been boo-hooed to no end among goldbugs. Those promoting jewelry have been derided endlessly but the truth of the matter, according to Steele, is that Asians buy their gold in jewelry form. It's their form of physical metal possession. What's wrong with that? Instead of buying coins, futures or options, gold fund shares or bullion, they buy jewelry. Do you suppose they have a better understanding of the weight and quality of jewelry than does the average Westerner who buys jewelry for ostentatious purposes? I don't know.

I doubt that any analyst appearing on Bloomberg television between 5 and 6:00 AM EST has much influence on the POG but I did note that after Steele's Wednesday interview, that the POG gained whereas after Naqvi's depressing outlook today, the POG ...uh..gained. These television guests may seem to be experts to those with very little or no knowledge of the markets. They are first and foremost, salespeople. In the village of the blind, the one eyed man is king.
rich
Waverider
(09/23/2004; 18:23:58 MDT - Msg ID: 124656)
$$$$$ 418.50 $$$$$
...and a Happy, Happy Sixth Birthday Oaken Table Round!
Cometose
(09/23/2004; 18:43:50 MDT - Msg ID: 124657)
****$437.50*************
************$437.50************
Gandalf the White
(09/23/2004; 18:53:18 MDT - Msg ID: 124658)
TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA -- POG Contest UPDATE !

Entries as of THURSDAY 9/23/04 at just about 17:50 p.m. Denver time !!!

Listed in order of decreasing values !
----

$$$$ $437.5 $$$$ Cometose (9/23/04; 18:43:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 124657


$$$$ $427.4 $$$$ J-Bullion (9/23/04; 12:26:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 124639)


$$$$ $420.0 $$$$ Sundeck (9/22/04; 22:29:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 124616)

$$$$ $418.5 $$$$ Waverider (9/23/04; 18:23:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 124656)


$$$$ $410.1 $$$$ Zhisheng (9/23/04; 10:23:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 124632)


$$$$ $402.9 $$$$ TBatler (9/23/04; 13:49:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 124641)


$$$$ $399.3 $$$$ Federal_Reserves (9/23/04; 13:19:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 124640)

$$$$ $398.6 $$$$ Smeagol (9/23/04; 17:30:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 124651)


$$$$ $378.0 $$$$ Topaz (9/23/04; 01:40:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 124621)
===
<;-)


Gandalf the White
(09/23/2004; 18:56:24 MDT - Msg ID: 124659)
OOPS --- that UPDATE should be at 18:50 Denver time !
<;-(
Smeagol
(09/23/2004; 19:03:01 MDT - Msg ID: 124660)
With respect to Gold, the election doesn't matter because...

...because Gold has all the Time in the World, doesn't It, precious... yess, think now... in all that long, sslow progression of Time, what is four more years?

Jusst how old is Gold, and Gold-worth, eh? As old as human history. How many years of wealth-power are under Gold's shining yellow belt? Thousands upon thousands...

The America-country boasts two hundred twenty eight years of power and their leaders and people thinks themselves ssomehow privileged, with their ten-times-empty pocketses!!(cackle!) George Bush has a mere four years, and John Kerry has none (yet(?)). But it is far, far too late... even before these two men arrived on the sscene, long ago the leaders of the young America-country abdicated their responsibility and the trusst of the People and chose transient, corruptible paper over Gold... for present gains which cannot sstand the tesst of Time...

No matter who is elected, you will find the outcome is the ssame no matter which "party" is in power. That outcome... sss... is plunder and control... only the methods change...

Yess... elections don't matter because Gold has had, and will ever claim the Victory in the long run.

We cassts our vote for Gold.


Kingdoms come and go,
Water and sand in the pan.
Gold remains, amused.


Resspectfully,
Smeagol

Cometose
(09/23/2004; 19:09:51 MDT - Msg ID: 124661)
contest
If elected president George Bush would be good for gold
because of the following

which is borrowed from a friend


In financial terms, this means larger US budget, trade and current account deficits. Clearly, a win for the incumbent is in fact a mandate to continue the same course that the US is presently on. That being said, goodbye US dollar.

American troops to continue fighting in Iraq, says Bush

Deficits to da MOON
Liberty Head
(09/23/2004; 19:36:31 MDT - Msg ID: 124662)
With respect to gold, the election doesn't matter because....
in a fiat based economy, it's the lack of principles not the personalities that drive the gold market.
A principled president would be fiscally responsible and uphold the principles embodied in our Constitution.
That would rule out Bush, Kerry and 99.9% of Congress as well.
Bush has proven himself to be the biggest spender of other people's money ever to occupy the White House.
Kerry would be challenged to match the vast damage Bush has wrought, but you know he is mighty determined.
Either way, there will be hell to pay.

Best Wishes
Gandalf the White
(09/24/2004; 00:03:55 MDT - Msg ID: 124663)
TAA TAA TAAAAAAAAAAAAA, TAA TAA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !
http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/tools/guideandsignup.html
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. has issued a "CALL to CONTEST" ---

TWO separate Contests ---- An Essay writing Contest, and a POG Guessing Contest !!

TWO separate groups of Winning Prizes to be awarded to the WINNERS !!!

===
The ESSAY CONTEST is a short ESSAY statement of at least twenty-five words, answering ONE of the THREE following Propositions:

1. If elected, George Bush would be good for gold because___________________

2. If elected, John Kerry would be good for gold because_________________________

3. With respect to gold, the election doesn't matter because_______________

This Essay contest will run until Midnight, Sunday Oct. 2, 2004 (Denver time).

AND, after consultation with the Castle Barrister, it has been decided that the USAGOLD Forum will forego the restrictions on political postings during the time period of THIS ESSAY Contest. (The automatic posting deleation machine will be restarted on October 3rd !!!!)

The ESSAY Contest prizes are as follows:

A GOLD 10 Guilder Dutch King (0.1947 of Au) to the best Essay, and an one ounce Canadian Silver Maple Leaf to
each of the two runners-up.

WOWSERS -- A total of TEN (10), EARLYBIRD ESSAYS have been entered todate ! GREAT START !!!
===

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ ALSO A PRICE GUESSING CONTEST!!$$$$$$$$$$$$

In addition we will have a price guessing contest on the closing price of gold for the December Comex contract
(GC4Z) on Monday, October 4, 2004, ---BUT all entries must be posted to the TableRound before Midnight on Thursday, September 30th.

The POG Contest winner -- who will have the closest price guess to the actual closing price -- will receive an
one-tenth ounce GOLDEN Canadian Maple Leaf. There will be also be two runners-up prizes for the next closest prognostications --- each winning an one (1) one ounce Canadian Silver Maple Leaf.

====
THE RULES -- (We MUST have RULES !!) --- PLEASE READ !!

1) The Winner is the poster with the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX (most active) Decembr 2004 Gold Contract (GC4Z) on the date of Monday, October 4, 2004.

3) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $404.4)

4) "Guesses" shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT BOX location AND enclosed in markers of "Dollar Signs" so as to be OFFICIAL !
(Such as $$$$$$404.4 $$$$$$$ )

5) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".

6) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes MIDNIGHT (24:00) on Thursday, September 30, 2004.

7) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY as this part MUST accompany the Price prognostication --- In order for your entry to be valid, it must contain a few words on "Why you choose that number !" <===== NOTE !!!
---
LET the CONTESTS continue !
<;-)
====

POG Contest EARLYBIRD Entries as of FRIDAY 9/24/04 at just about 00:01 a.m. Denver time !!!

Listed in order of decreasing values !
----
$$$$ $437.5 $$$$ Cometose (9/23/04; 18:43:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 124657

$$$$ $427.4 $$$$ J-Bullion (9/23/04; 12:26:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 124639)

$$$$ $420.0 $$$$ Sundeck (9/22/04; 22:29:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 124616)

$$$$ $418.5 $$$$ Waverider (9/23/04; 18:23:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 124656)

$$$$ $410.1 $$$$ Zhisheng (9/23/04; 10:23:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 124632)

$$$$ $402.9 $$$$ TBatler (9/23/04; 13:49:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 124641)

$$$$ $399.3 $$$$ Federal_Reserves (9/23/04; 13:19:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 124640)

$$$$ $398.6 $$$$ Smeagol (9/23/04; 17:30:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 124651)

$$$$ $378.0 $$$$ Topaz (9/23/04; 01:40:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 124621)


====
ATTENTION all you LURKERS and Newbies !! --- COME ON IN !

To be able to enter either or BOTH of the new CONTESTS you only need a FREE POSTING PASSWORD !
IF you do not have a FREE POSTING PASSWORD --- you can get one from the Town Crier at the LINK atop this message! The TownCrier makes it easy and painless too. There may be FREE GOLD and Silver awarded for your ESSAY and/or Price Pognostication.
<;-)

Belgian
(09/24/2004; 02:12:38 MDT - Msg ID: 124664)
Kamal Naqvi....(TC)
Bravo, Sir Towncrier...you found Another jewel of cryptic message...
Kamal did his classic job in sending the boring message that GOLD must remain associated with India and almost exclusively with India...but..
Through Kamal..."other analysts" (!!!)...whoever "they" may be...THE PHYSICAL GOLD MARKET IS SEEN AS LESS IMPORTANT FOR THE GOLDPRICE !!!

Another very classic, but wonderfull example of a "denial" evidencing exactly the opposite : Byby Papergold...Hello Bullion !

The financial brotherhood (industry) hates to realize that their exhuberant "paper-Reich" will not last a thousand years. And this is not only the case for Gold but also for all the fractional collaterals of the cosmic derivative volumes.

At the end...the "REAL PRICE" of any collateral that is extremely over-loaded with debt and credit, must be EXPRESSED explicitely and be EXPERIENCED unequivocally.

Isn't this happening with the planet's cruel oil, today !? Day after day, the paper-salespeople (Yes, Rich) manage the perception-flow that go with the $-POO : The $-POO seems to have very little to do with oil's intrinsic (physical) Value ...but the present strong fluctuations (rises) of the $-POO is the result of a multitude of causes,...tensions...storms...temporary supply/demand imbalances, etc...
The vital importance and impact of oil is "minimized" in one big orchestration. The Chinese are to oil what the Indians are for Gold. Very fine perception-building that has the absolute majority of the general public in its ban ! But...the very tiny few oil-owners AND the aboveground GOLD-owners, know better !

Not only oil and/or Gold are loaded with absurd low Valuations...the dollar-currency has been value-privileged for such a long time . That's WHY the managers of the "euro" work hard as to give this currency more and "lasting" *CREDIBILITY* through its coming "association" with GOLD (and oil)! One of the main reasons (to achieve that goal) that the Turkey (75 million souls) , EU membership, how controversial this might seem, remains on the agenda.

Euroland and its building (credible) euro has (will continue to have) also large debts and paper-overvaluations. But these are only a fraction of the dollar analogs.

The ongoing rapid expansion of Euroland and its euro-currency can only be successfull if the euro-currency remains "CREDIBLE" in a complete other way than the dollar-reserve-system was builded on ! A Gold associated euro versus the Gold antithesis dollar !!! This simply means that "real Value" should be priced for what it is really worth, on a constant real basis...PHYSICAL instead of paper. That is what a euro physical freegold market is all about. Euroland is, always was and will remain..."derivative"-aversive ! We want bricks and not hollow paper promesses.

The dollar-digit, used for trade settlement around the globe, is in the process of losing its former (strong) perception of that famous credibility on what its dominance was based for a very long time, already. The colluding (with the FED) AA paper-salespeople's job, is to keep the dollar's (fake) credibility, alive and kicking.

The bulk of the former dollar-credibility has been shipped "physically" with the 20,000 tonnes of US' treasury goldreserves to Europ. The remaining 8,125 tonnes booked at $42,2/ounce, means very little...or nothing. WHY "HAS" the US-Gold to remain priced at $42,2...when the ECB is pricing its (credibility) Goldreserves AT MARKET !?

Socialist labelled Euroland has very little to do with the building euro credibility as communist labelled China has nothing to see with its fundamental (genetic) mercantilism (capitalism) nature.

The Anglo American "debt-dollar" ...DEBT DOLLAR...has had its time ! Now we are going to try the CREDITWORTHY Gold-euro...GOLD !!!

The coming expansionarry relance of the global economy shall happen on Another International monetary basis with (euro)GOLD as the axis. Oil has the power to force this outcome and is in the process of doing so. The paper-salespeople keep on hammering on "The Markets" in the AA significance of them. "The Markets" have much less power as is contributed to them. Markets have market-rulers that guide the markets into a pointed direction. Oil and its prices (and pricing-!!!) are "Supply"-driven, because of the intrinsic Value of oil and its desire to be VALUED as such.

No wonder that K.Naqvi and tutti quanti are physical-aversive !.

Thank you Sir TC.
The Invisible Hand
(09/24/2004; 02:42:54 MDT - Msg ID: 124665)
Will the splitting of the EU have an impact on the euro?
http://www.drudgereport.com/flash8.htmFrom Drudgereport

EUROPEAN UNION COULD 'SPLIT' OVER CONSTITUTION
Thu Sep 23 2004 21:52:02 ET

THE EUROPEAN Union could be destroyed by divisions over plans for a new constitution, the world's most influential business journal declared today.

In a warning to Europe's leaders, The Economist said it was 'probable' the EU would split into rival camps if one or more countries votes against the constitution.

But it argued that such a collapse would actually be a good thing with Britain and other countries able to choose how much - or how little - they wanted to be involved.

'These referendums could throw the EU into the sort of crisis that puts the integration process into reverse or even causes the EU to split,' warned the magazine.

'The EU may indeed split. But a split need not be a dis-aster. It could lead to a multi-layered EU in which different countries adopt different levels of political integration and experiment with different economic models.'

However, the magazine added that there was also the potential for a 'darker' out-come. 'A split could cause Europe once again to divide into rival power blocks. 'That could threaten what most agree is the Union's central achievement - peace in Europe.'

The Economist's analysis is spelt out in a special 14-page report today on the state of Europe under the headline 'a divided Union'.

It argues the European Union have been gravely damaged by three core problems - economically it is falling far behind the U.S. and Asia, politically it is deeply divided on issues like Iraq, the new EU constitution and the euro and its legitimacy has been shattered by a crippling 'lack of popular understanding and enthusiasm'.

These problems have left the EU highly vulnerable at a time when it has just taken in 10 new members, including eight relatively impoverished countries from Eastern Europe, fuelling fears about immigration and cheap labour.

And The Economist identifies the controversial new constitution as the straw that could break the camel's back.

A total of 11 countries - including Britain - have now pledged to give the people a vote on the constitution.

The magazine also argues that change is necessary to stop Europe slipping further behind its rivals.

'Europe's share of the world economy is shrinking as the United States constantly outstrips European growth and the Asian economies surge ahead,' it warned.

END
==
As I asked in the title: "Will the splitting of the EU have an impact on the euro?" Not if FreeGold is a fact. So let's hurry with FreeGold. Time is up for accumulators. (Wa denktegij dervan?)
Topaz
(09/24/2004; 03:52:40 MDT - Msg ID: 124666)
@Belgian ... Ned.
http://www.futuresource.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=GC&o=100/DX&a=M&z=610x300&d=LOW&b=LINE&st=Belgian,
How good is that "mark to market" Gold held by the ECB eh? They are demonstrating for all the world to see - WE HAVE UNINCUMBERED BULLION IN POSSESSION - Don't you just love it!
Ned,
As per usual I've pressed the submit completely confident in the clarity of my reply to you ... but in revisiting some 24Hr's later find it (the reply) falling dismally short ;-(
What I tried to convey was:- The constant value (X) ie: a composite monetary equivalent to a Barrel of Oil, has 3 components ... PoO, DX, and Bond "YIELDS", so that these ... in concert, are always striving to equal a pre-determined, cast in concrete, figure.
It wasn't obvious until the composite $/Bonds weakened enough to kick Oil prices up ... now imo, it is!
PoG can be seamlessly substituted for DX as the Chart shows.
A Basic approach Ned, however it provides a unique perspective on the whys and wherefors of the Big picture methinks.

MANY HAPPY RETURNS CPM-USAGOLD!
Ned
(09/24/2004; 04:34:41 MDT - Msg ID: 124667)
Topaz
I must admit that after your first response I was no where closer to understanding your thinking. With the second I inch a little closer. Yes I see from the chart that the reciprocal of the DX mirrors gold. There was a great debate on this forum a year to two ago about this issue of which I was in the camp that the POG was following exactly (to the inverse) of the DX.

My first question is how does(mathematically)POO, POG, DX and bond yields interact to form a constant 'X'? If this is impossible to map in algebraic form, please explain which variable is to plummet/skyrocket in order to meet your bearishness in the POG?

There are many, many people that firmly belive that the last 6 months of dithering in the financial markets are about to end. I most certainly agree. I truely believe gold is about to pop (up) but in the last 6 months I have taken a miserable beating in the PM shares and my confidence level is non-existant. I would like to hear your case of gold falling and while I ask, are you (gold) bearish short-term and/or long-term?

Thanks in advance.

Ned.
Belgian
(09/24/2004; 05:09:59 MDT - Msg ID: 124668)
Hugh Hendry - CNBC-Europ
The Irish unconventional wolf, confirmed again, most of what we elaborate on here at the forum. His confirmations are getting bolder...unrestrained and very explicit. But...Hugh keeps very quiet..."significantly" silent, when the word GOLD, inevitably pops up (in Q & A)!

The other guest-analyst...a conventional one, profited from Hugh's (golden)silence to authoritatively say that those who doubt about the dollar should put their money (confetti) in...GOLDMINES !!! It almost sounded like an order !

I'm still wondering why the cameraman focused on Hugh's face, wich was silently speaking in complete disagreement, during the goldmines march-order. I had fun.
misetich
(09/24/2004; 05:34:43 MDT - Msg ID: 124669)
US Budget Deficit - Up UP and Away
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A45603-2004Sep23.htmlSnip:

Congress Votes to Extend Tax Cuts
$146 Billion in Relief Would Be Bush's 4th Reduction in 4 Years
.................
With the approval of the legislation, virtually all of Bush's first-term tax agenda -- four tax measures worth nearly $1.9 trillion over 10 years -- would survive a potential second Bush term, unless Washington elects to change the tax code again. The total is $300 billion more in tax relief than Bush envisioned with his first tax-cut proposal in 2001.
..................
But the tax cut would exacerbate a budget deficit that will probably have to be addressed in the next presidential term, no matter who is in the Oval Offic
...................
"Anyone voting 'no' is voting for a tax increase for the American people, especially on the middle class," warned Rep. Jim McCrery (R-La.), framing the terms of the debate. "That's the bottom line on this bill."
***************
Misetich

The bottom line - Self-serving politicos haven't got a clue on the effects this measure has on the sky rocketing US budget deficit and added pressure on the US $ over the long term

The combination of tax cuts, no job creation, and ballooning military and homeland security spending are dynamic combustibles for the US $ and the economy

The paltry economical gains of today are long-term pains as budget deficits are soaring ahead.

The key is IR's in the future. The new paradigm "the finance economy" is LOW IR dependent. A shift of a couple of points upward and all hell will break loose.

The experimention of shifting from long-term debt to revolving short-term to save some burden costs are measures adopted to keep the game going a little longer.

Management by crisis

The Feds have "no plan" but are managing by crisis - Some will point out to the American resiliency of post 9-11 as an example of being prepared and cope with crisis yet crisis prevention is virually non-existent in the minds of politicos

Yet some 3-4 years later the US economic scene has deteriorated considerably - The Feds are drawing comfort from "wealth creation" in recent years - obtained from Asset Inflation - derived from a housing bubble - and debt bubble

Yet the so called economic recovery has been muted for LABOR AND WAGES

Snip:

AN UNEVEN RECOVERY:
NEW GOVERNMENT DATA SHOW CORPORATE PROFITS ENJOYING
UNUSUALLY LARGE GAINS, WHILE WORKERS� INCOMES LAG BEHIND

The share of income growth, after adjusting for inflation, that has gone to wages and salaries has been only about one-third as much as has gone to corporate profits. This contrasts sharply with other recoveries since the end of World War II; during the other recoveries, the share of income growth that went to wages and salaries averaged more than twice as much as the share going to corporate profits.

http://www.cbpp.org/9-3-04ui.htm

End of snip

The achilli of the US economy and hence the US $ is the inability of the economy to CREATE SUSTAINABLE EMPLOYMENT

- Without wage and salaries increases consumers have relied and are being "cajoled" on relying on "perceived housing wealth" and hence increase their borrowing on their equity.

The alleged manipulation in the bond market as yields are declining as oil prices skyrocket is to keep the "refinancing" game going to weather the storm of The 2004 Oil Shock And Awe

...such band-aid responses are likely to fail

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
Topaz
(09/24/2004; 06:32:47 MDT - Msg ID: 124670)
Ned.
OK, currently bearish, YES! Why? The Bond Yields are falling off a Cliff (stronger price)... this bodes ill for DX in the short term (days) however I think a reversal is imminent and with Oil @ $48 ANY uptick in Yields will be reflected exponentially in DX. This "should" find PoG under a lot of pressure.
I say SHOULD Ned because PoG is outperforming ALL currencies at present and warrants watching closely. Options expiry will test the mettle big time this Month I feel.

As far as the Oil Standard goes, the X components in my current model are 40%Bonds, 20%DX/PoG and 40% PoO ... but, like I said, it's a moving target.
I should also add I've been "bearish" since $340/ DX92...for other related reasons, so don't take this to the Bank Ned without a complete understanding!

My monetary perspective of Gold Bullion in Possession is similar to a 100Yr Zero coupon Bond ... with "severe" penalties for opting out early...but boy do you sleep well!

SLEEP I'm getting me some!

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(09/24/2004; 08:57:21 MDT - Msg ID: 124671)
Frosting for the cake -- add some Finnish markkaas to your order. Click or call!
http://www.usagold.com/gold/special/Markkaa.html

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1-800-869-5115 Ext. 110

Belgian
(09/24/2004; 09:00:50 MDT - Msg ID: 124672)
@TIH (previous answer was lost)
Let the $-� rivalry continue. The continious efforts (cfr. the article) to split the "growing" EU and its EMU, are part of the competitive play.

NO, nothing will hold the steady advance of the euro !
The EMU and its non EU underwriters are already in the driver's seat. Trichet : PLEASE...DON'T RUSH INTO THE EURO...(now...B.)

The euro-dividers always use the same contradictional argument : The EU is the weakiest economy on the planet...but fail to explain WHY the euro ...currency of that weak EU economy...is...remains stronger in exchange rate versus the oh so dynamic other economies !

They don't get it (publicly), invisible. It is the currencies that impact the economy and NOT vice versa !!!
Exchange rates, purchasing and pricing power...export driven or internal economies...etc.

The splitters, aka dividers...count heavily on the UK to keep on taking the lead in sabotaging the EU-EMU expansion and power-building. This already started under M. Thatcher. Tony the pony keeps playing a very ambigious role in his go-between the two competitors. The EU splitters keep on trying to split, up until they jump into the golden euro(concept) lifeboat, just before the dollarboat capsizes.

The dollar is even suggesting that the dollar will only weaken against Asian currencies and not against the euro ! This is as much as saying that the euro "is" actually "in" the dollarboat. Simply daile dosis of nonsense and screen-filling yadada.

You (TIH) are shouting...� table, freegold is served !
Minute h� papillon...the golden �-crow-bar is still in the kitchen and not even boiling yet.
All the invited guests are not yet comfortably installed in the dining room. But all have already positively answered on the �-invitation.

The evolving facts to watch are very, very simple, invisible. Interprete them correctly.
The �-$ exchange rate has risen and remains "stable". The dollar even dreams that we landed in a fixed exchange rate system. The $40-$50 POO is a "hype", isn't it ? Why is the dollar already sounding the alarmbells then...SPR.
How come that this weak (weakest) EU economy shows a stable...STABLE currency under the much dispized "one fits all" concept !? Bizar, ,no ? How are you going to split-divide, this euro-beast, that survives the oilprice assault ?

The "benefits" of EMU...the euro...dominate all the delays in the other subordinated convergences efforts (EU constitution and other). Why is it that the pound sterling of the former Britisch empire is following the euro exchange rate against the dollar... !? Woewoe..

It must be a painstaking dilemma, having to chose between "dollar" and "Gold". This will become much more accentuated when the euro-gold-concept is broadly recognized. Bidding up Gold's price, through taking physical Gold out of circulation...means automatically, knocking the dollar's Gold purchasing power ...DOWN !
How can you possibly divide-split the underwriters of the dollar-opposite...euro-concept !? Tell me.
Buying Gold is strengthening the euro's goldreserves and therefore the euro's exchange rate and purchasing power...within an internally oriented economy...expanding to 500 million souls under that same EMU umbrella !!! Tackle that growing �-competitor with all means...remains the main message. Or...keep the POG hyper contained and remain blind for the ongoing Gold-reserve distribution.


Yes, the AA media do mention the WAG...but never...NEVER the "MTM"-ECB detail. And in cauda venenum. Right ?
Not a word about the BIS in all this ! Keep on talking about..."the markets" !

The main reason why a credible-stable Golden euro was established, is that the permanent depreciation of the dollar-currency has run out of control. It has become unmanageable and therfore unusable as a trade settlement digit on a global scale. The dollar cannot remain (exist as) a reserve-asset anymore ! The EU (EMU) expansion shall happen under the stability of the euro-concept. There will certainly come a critical phase in the ongoing (fast) EU expansion, where FreeGold will needed to be called in for help. But so far so good on the matters of "stability", regardless of the negative influences.

Remember how the dollar under the old goldstandard, re-priced the goldreserves twice, in one go. Too little too late of course. This time Gold will be let (set) FREE.
The dollar and dollar-adepts can't fight Gold...UNFREE Gold, for Another 1000 years and having a currency (Gold numeraire) that means nothing but DEBT.

As long as the dollar keeps fighting Gold (dissociates from Gold), the euro will continue to gain ground and set Gold FREE for its own benefit. The more the EMU (euro) is being sabotaged effectively, the faster the euro-Gold-concept will be taken out of the kitchen and served to the quests.
See EU_EMU_EURO and GOLD bashing as a contribution to the $-� relative stability...fixed exchange rate...no "rush" into the euro...reserve.

Shol TIH (amai zenne).


Ag Mountain
(09/24/2004; 09:26:45 MDT - Msg ID: 124673)
@Topaz euro gold
You said, "How good is that "mark to market" Gold held by the ECB eh? They are demonstrating for all the world to see - WE HAVE UNINCUMBERED BULLION IN POSSESSION - Don't you just love it!"

Ask TownCrier for sure of all of the eurosystem gold some part of it is still encumbered in receivable form. So we all might agree a better interpretation than yours is that the ECB is actually demonstrating for all the world to see -- WE ARE NOT AFRAID OF BULLION MARKET PRICE! Don't you just love THAT?!!!

Meanwhile the US Treasury-Fed has its gold at $42 to demonstrate for the world to see that its head is in the sand because it IS AFRAID OF THE PRICE! This, too, will have to change some day because the market can't be fooled and fought forever.
TBatler
(09/24/2004; 09:32:49 MDT - Msg ID: 124674)
Essay contest
With respect to gold, the election doesn't matter because; other global factors have a much greater effect on Gold prices than the US election. A short lived jump or drop may occur due to US buyers, buying or selling to reflect their personal feelings on the outcome of the election. We must not forget one of the basics of economics, supply and demand. Current global Gold production is at an all time high, thus there is considerable supply. The final out come of the US election will not have a significant effect on the demand.
Typical controlling factors of Gold prices, oil prices, war, major climactic disruptions, international unrest etc. will not change dramatically no mater which candidate wins the election. Investors in Gold bullion would be wiser to look at these other controlling factors rather than the US election. In my humble opinion Americans are conceited to think their election could have a major effect on the price of Gold with the existing candidates.
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(09/24/2004; 10:37:05 MDT - Msg ID: 124675)
A risk-free request, helping you enter the gold market with grace and confidence.
http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html

Get a head start on the gold market!
NEMO me impune lacessit
(09/24/2004; 12:38:04 MDT - Msg ID: 124676)
Belgian - FYI
You wrote"Hugh Hendry - CNBC-Europe. The Irish unconventional wolf"

He is from Scotland, and was heavily in PM-shares last spring and had to surrender during the great slaugther after april - 04. I think You saw a guy with burned fingers.
He has started to accumulate PM-stocks again.

N
Aristotle
(09/24/2004; 12:56:38 MDT - Msg ID: 124677)
Burnt fingers make good teachers!
Food for thought:

Anybody can lose it all. But show me a guy who lost it all, and then rebuilt a solid empire, and I'll show you a guy I'll listen to anytime.

And sometimes that person might even be yourself!

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle
YGM
(09/24/2004; 13:08:48 MDT - Msg ID: 124678)
AU Price contest....
Ahh! Sir Gandolph old man...Had to join the table round for old times sake, say "Hello to all" and try my luck once again........

$$$$$$$$409.5$$$$$$$$>>>>It will still will take more time to beat down $410/$412. resistanace.....Fireworks in 2005!

Good Luck to all, nice to be here again....YGM
"GO GATA" they're "Still the Ultimate Advocate for Gold"
USAGOLD Daily Market Report
(09/24/2004; 13:24:44 MDT - Msg ID: 124679)
Page Update!
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Daily Gold Market Report has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.

-----closing market excerpts-----

Gold down for the day, up for the week...

Comex Dec gold futures closed lower Friday on profit taking and pressure from the U.S. dollar as the greenback rebounded from a lower trade against the euro, sources said.

Dec gold settled $2.90 lower at $409.70.

"We struggled to move higher early even though the dollar was weaker," said Dave Rinehimer, futures research director at Citigroup Global Markets in New York...

Later in the day the dollar steadied and traded into slightly positive territory againstthe euro. This seemed to cement the upside in Dec gold and prevented any rally attempts.

One gold trader said earlier that the dollar was bumping up against resistance of its own and was nearing critical levels around 88.70 cents on the Dec futures contract.

The ability to close above this area was potentially key for near-term dollar direction, which would ultimately influence the gold market, he said.

During the last hour of trading at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, the Dec dollar index was trading below that key area at 88.52 cents...

-----(see url for access to full news, 24-hr newswire)-----

HEADLINES

Nigeria: Illegal Gold Mining Ruining Rural Environment -- AllAfrica.com

India's inflation rises to 7.87 percent -- The Daily Star, Bangladesh - Business

Gold jumps $6 to 5-month high -- The Daily Star, Bangladesh - Business

Euro/Dollar Vol Jump Likely As Spot Approaches Key Barrier -- Derivatives Week

Turkey to unveil economy plan -- Middle East Times - Business

Euro area inflation likely to ease in September - Morgan Stanley -- newratings.com

Dollar continues struggle amid Fed rate uncertainty -- Hemscott - Today's AFX News

Yen Heads for Weekly Drop Against Dollar on Concern Japan's Growth Slowing -- Bloomberg - Japan

INTERVIEW-Curbing Ukraine inflation a challenge-c.bank chief -- Borsa Italiana - News

(visit url for hyperlink access)
misetich
(09/24/2004; 13:38:13 MDT - Msg ID: 124680)
Global: Searching for Growth - S. Roach
http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/latest-digest.htmlSnip:

Lacking in the organic sustenance of solid growth in hiring and real wages, the American consumer remains the weak link in the US growth chain. Without the endogenous support of income generation, consumers have been propped up by exogenous sources of growth � namely, extraordinary fiscal and monetary policy stimulus, sharply reduced saving rates, and debt-induced equity extraction from asset markets. With the Fed now back in a tightening mode and with the personal saving rate having recently plunged back through the 1% threshold, the case for sustained exogenous support of an overly-indebted, income- and saving-short American consumer is weakening. Unless job creation and real wages suddenly spring to life � a real stretch, in my view � America's soft patch is likely to endure.
....................
**************
Misetich

The "soft-patch" continues for the 4th consecutive month and gives no signs that "economic traction" has taken place.

Quite the contrary - the deceleration has picked up downward momentum as witnessed in the higher number of negative corporate earning warnings.

Price infaltion is roaring ahead - and are spreading throughout the economy - Land development costs are surging higher as are construction material costs

Health premiums are soaring in the double digits and insurance premiums are to follow the same path

Property taxes are zooming up in double digits -

Gasoline prices are up in double digits year over year

Home renovation costs are up in double digits territory

Commodities costs have risen over 20% on average year over year

and making matters worse ...The 2004 Oil Shock And Awe is gathering upward momentum -

Oil - the gatewary to FREE GOLD

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
YGM
(09/24/2004; 13:45:11 MDT - Msg ID: 124681)
Essay Contest....
Will the Presidential elections affect the POG?...IMNSHO, "NO"! Why, because the dollar value of our precious yellow security is not governed by the actions of one man alone nor by the steady accumulation of those few truely realisticly minded individuals seeking to preserve and protect financial stability for themselves and those they love. It will be driven by the "Prehensile" singlemindedness of Nations, Financial Institutions, Central Banks and the worlds wealthiest. If ever there were a squeeze on Gold or Silver the common man would be left in the proverbial dust of the mad scramble to buy....
In my mind it is the constant and ongoing haze of smoke and mirrors that clouds the perception and value of Gold, and one President of the USA nor another will not alone be responsible for the lifting of that haze. It will be time itself, that and the steady awakening of the sheeple to the reality of the value of "Created From Airy Nothing" paper Fiat and other "Paper Promisary Notes". One Gold coin in hand has a feeling much deeper and satisfying than a handful of airy nothing!!!!..........YGM

"Prehensile" - immoderately desirous of acquiring e.g.
wealth; "they are avaricious and will do anything for
money"; "casting covetous eyes on his neighbor's fields"; "a grasping
old miser"; "grasping commercialism"; "greedy for money and
power"; "grew richer and greedier"; "prehensile employers stingy with
raises for their employees"
Synonyms: avaricious, grabby, grasping, greedy, covetous
YGM
(09/24/2004; 14:41:52 MDT - Msg ID: 124682)
$$$$$$$$409.5$$$$$$$$
Resistance @ $410/$412. will not be broken by Oct. 4/04
Belgian
(09/24/2004; 14:51:17 MDT - Msg ID: 124683)
@NEMO
Yes indeed, Hugh had (still has) goldmines in the Fund. He is running a business and has demanding investing clients with a pool of confetti. He "has" to "speculate" (gamble) like everyone else in the financial business services. He must perform on a yearly basis or get another job !

Hugh and many others in the same paper-business "cannot" accumulate and store physical gold. Nobody is running a "WEALTH FUND" ! The financial business is a priori a speculative "paper" business. Hugh's fund is performing well and his actions are as closely as possible to his unconventional ideas, views, thoughts, insights. And this in an as consequent way, possible. This includes speculation with paper-gold, goldmines included !

The reason why Hugh keeps attracting my attention is that he has the guts to say what he thinks and he hates himself for not being able to do what he should be doing... to *Invest* instead of gambling. That's how I do percept him, rightly or wrongly. Can't read the man's soul...and integrity.

Indeed, soon, people will ask themselves what the remaining differences are between ... investing-> speculating-> gambling-> consolidating wealth.
This is an important evolution...putting the over-ripe financial business into question...stocks, bonds, currencies, derivatives. A very important given for Gold's new future...physical gold in possession of course. (Read Robert Blumen - Weimar and Wall Str. - GE)

BTW, aren't there the same wolves in Scotland as in Ireland...-:) ?

Federal_Reserves
(09/24/2004; 15:03:12 MDT - Msg ID: 124684)
Illegals bankrupting hospitals in CA - spreading disease
TB: A manifestation of failed enforcement

By Elton Gallegly
The story of Feliciano Morelos, the illegal immigrant who spread tuberculosis up and down the West Coast, is a case study on how illegal immigration causes real danger to American society.
As senior writer Melinda Burns pointed out in her April 25 News-Press report, had Mr. Morelos immigrated legally to the United States, he would have been screened for tuberculosis and denied entry. But he wasn't, and has been credited with infecting 56 other people. In 1996, the John Hopkins Center for Tuberculosis Research estimated it cost $13,000 to treat each case of TB. Counting Mr. Morelos, that means it cost U.S. taxpayers $741,000 in 1996 dollars to stem the Morelos-caused epidemic.
But, as frightening as the Morelos story is, it's only the tip of the iceberg. About 53 percent of the people diagnosed in the United States each year with TB are born outside the U.S. In the Los Angeles area, 80 percent of people infected with TB are foreign-born, with Mexico leading the way, followed by the Philippines, Vietnam, India and China.
In 2002, there were 15,075 cases of TB diagnosed in the U.S., according to the Centers for Disease Control. That's a national health cost of $196 million�in 1996 dollars.
In the 1940s, the United States launched a concerted effort to wipe out tuberculosis within our borders. It was largely successful, and by 1983, TB cases hit an all-time low. Then, as illegal immigration began to surge after the 1986 amnesty, so did tuberculosis.
It doesn't have to be this way.
Mr. Morelos was arrested last year on suspicion of drunken driving and driving without a license. That's when they discovered the TB. Rather than being treated with kid gloves, Mr. Morelos should have been turned over to immigration authorities, who should have put a hold on him and deported him as soon as he was no longer contagious. We don't do that here. With misguided compassion, and to our own detriment, we treat illegal immigrants as if they have every right to be here and every right to use health services designed for natives and legal immigrants.
Illegal immigrants aren't likely to have health insurance. When sick, even if the illness is minor, illegal immigrants tend to go to emergency rooms to be treated. Emergency rooms, equipped as trauma centers, are by nature the most expensive health care centers available. When filled by people with minor ailments, they also cannot give proper care to those in crisis.
It's an unbearable burden. In Los Angeles County, six county hospitals and nine public clinics have closed since 1999 because of unpaid care. Santa Barbara-based Tenet is trying to sell another 14 hospitals in L.A., and will close them by year's end if buyers are not found. Santa Paula Hospital closed this year because of the crippling burden of uncompensated care.
A California Medical Association study found that 82 percent of the state's emergency rooms lost money in 2002. It costs emergency rooms an estimated $325 million a year and emergency room doctors another $110 million a year to provide uncompensated care. That's in addition to the $648 million California and the federal government reimbursed health care providers for services extended to illegal immigrants. Such burdens hurt those who can least afford it, our native working poor who lose access to the only health care available to them.
The answer is simple. When an illegal immigrant is arrested for any reason, such as Mr. Morelos was last year, he should be deported after fulfilling his obligations to our justice system. A law I authored in 1997, if enforced, would do just that. When an illegal immigrant seeks emergency health care, it should be granted, but then the person should be deported as well.
Instead of cracking down on illegal immigration, we make it more enticing. We wink and nod when they supply forged documents to get a job. We accept easily forged and fraudulently obtained matricula consular cards as a free pass on our streets. Illegal immigrants who enroll in the University of California system pay in-state tuition. Their educations are subsidized not only by Californians, but also by U.S. citizens who come to our state legally from Nevada, Oregon, Washington or Arizona and pay higher tuitions. And we allow illegal immigrants to obtain free medical care without penalties.
Tuberculosis will not retreat in the United States again until we get illegal immigration under control. We will not solve our emergency room crisis until we get illegal immigration under control.
We will not get illegal immigration under control until we stop providing incentives to come here.
Rep. Elton Gallegly is chairman of the subcommittee on International Terrorism, Nonproliferation and Human Rights, a senior member of the House Judiciary Committee, and a member of the Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence.
Ned
(09/24/2004; 18:46:07 MDT - Msg ID: 124685)
Marshall Auerback is RED HOT ......
http://www.prudentbear.com/internationalperspective.asp"The analysis shows that output from 18 significant oil-producing countries, accounting for almost 29 percent of total world production, declined by 1.14 million barrels a day (mb/d) in 2003. The annual rate of decline also appears to be accelerating, contrary to the widely held view that depletion progresses slowly."

"* Gabon, where output peaked in 1996, tops the list of countries in sustained decline with production there falling over 18 percent in 2003, more than double its average decline rate for the last three years.

* Australia saw its production drop more than 14 percent in 2003, almost twice the average decline rate since it peaked in 2000.

* UK production from the North Sea, which peaked in 1999, posted the world's fourth largest decline in 2003 at nearly 9 percent.

* Indonesia, an OPEC member, has been in decline for 12 years, averaging 2.6 percent a year, but over the past few years this has accelerated to 8.5 percent last year.

* Having confirmed that its two largest producing regions are now in decline, China, with only modest production growth of 1.5 percent last year, looks likely to go into decline soon.

* Venezuela is also an old oil province. Its four oldest fields produced at one time together over 2 million barrels a day, but this has dropped to 850,000 barrels. It is struggling to keep its production up. "

"Roughly 70 percent of the world's oil supply comes from oilfields that were discovered prior to 1970. Output from many of these old fields is now on an accelerating decline curve. "

"The United States consumes 19.7 million barrels of oil daily. It imports almost 60 per cent of this, a figure bound to increase as U.S. fields deplete further. This not only has continued adverse consequences for the country's haemorrhaging current account deficit (and, by extension, the dollar), but geopolitical implications as well. "

..................................

Next year we might hear that 2004 was the year of "Peak Production" and when that happens, fold up your tent buddy, gather up as much gold and silver as you can and head for the hills.....it's going to get VERY, VERY UGLY !

Have a golden weekend.

Ned



Smeagol
(09/24/2004; 19:17:07 MDT - Msg ID: 124686)
...perhaps we sshould add Gasoline to Ssir Black Blade's lisst of things to sstock up on...

S.
pilgrims_gold
(09/24/2004; 19:51:33 MDT - Msg ID: 124687)
****** $411.40 ******
3. With respect to gold, the election doesn't matter because

The American dollar is dying from debt, The American business are becoming bankrupt from pension requirements, and the American people are bankrupt on thier credit obligations. Physical Gold is not debt, credit, or printed by the government. It is real, hard (or soft at 24K), physical asset which will retain its value in the future.
Gandalf the White
(09/24/2004; 20:07:21 MDT - Msg ID: 124688)
TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA -- POG Contest UPDATE !

Entries as of FRIDAY 9/24/04 at just about 20:00 p.m. Denver time !!!

Listed in order of decreasing values !
----

$$$$ $437.5 $$$$ Cometose (9/23/04; 18:43:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 124657

$$$$ $427.4 $$$$ J-Bullion (9/23/04; 12:26:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 124639)

$$$$ $420.0 $$$$ Sundeck (9/22/04; 22:29:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 124616)

$$$$ $418.5 $$$$ Waverider (9/23/04; 18:23:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 124656)

$$$$ $411.4 $$$$ pilgrims_gold (9/24/04; 19:51:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 124687)

$$$$ $410.1 $$$$ Zhisheng (9/23/04; 10:23:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 124632)

$$$$ $409.5 $$$$ YGM (9/24/04; 14:41:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 124682)

$$$$ $402.9 $$$$ TBatler (9/23/04; 13:49:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 124641)

$$$$ $399.3 $$$$ Federal_Reserves (9/23/04; 13:19:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 124640)

$$$$ $398.6 $$$$ Smeagol (9/23/04; 17:30:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 124651)

$$$$ $378.0 $$$$ Topaz (9/23/04; 01:40:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 124621)
===
<;-)
Gandalf the White
(09/24/2004; 20:10:55 MDT - Msg ID: 124689)
WELCOME "HOME", Yukon Gold Miner (YGM)
Happy to see you GOLDEN face at the TableRound again !
Please drop by more often.
<;-)
PS: Are you getting that GOLDFEVER again ?
GW
Dollar Bill
(09/24/2004; 20:16:36 MDT - Msg ID: 124690)
.,.
Does the fed have a shot in heck of raiseing interest rates very high?
Can this infinite debt machine take much of a financial stalling correcting policy without snowballing off a cliff?
The fed has no choice but to apply the brakes, but how can the credit bubble deal with brakes?
How can the derivitive nightmare deal with corrosive slowing?

If the reserve currency protection strategy calls for keeping inflation on its "moorings", then will are about to see and feel the effects of a braking -recession- in an environment and financial structure that has been fed to go in only one direction. Expansion.

I think the forum will document a mind boggleing era of financial disruptions. The big boys will save the core parts of the system, no matter what the effects. On us!
Love the contest question.
Liberty Head
(09/24/2004; 20:27:40 MDT - Msg ID: 124691)
Re: Federal Reserves msg 124684
Re:"Illegals bankrupting hospitals in CA - spreading disease"

Federal Reserves,
Since your post was not deleted, I feel entitled to respond.
Elton Gallegly is an ardent supporter of big government and socialized healthcare.
Illegals could not cause a free market healthcare system to go bankrupt.
Healthcare is indeed going bankrupt but only because of increasing gov't control and regulation. Highly trained, careing professionals are leaving the industry in droves.
You will soon get better diagnostics by going through a TSA scan at the airport. You will get the "treatment" from them as well.
I assure you that gov't managed borders and gov't managed healthcare will be as bogus as everything else the gov't does.
Your post is nothing more than another ploy to get us citizens to tolerate more gov't power grabs with nothing but heartache for the poor old sobs that take the bait.
I can't help but wonder if fear of deportation was the main reason Mr. Morelos avoided treatment.
No apology, I never give a socialist an even break.

Wishes
YGM
(09/24/2004; 21:57:02 MDT - Msg ID: 124692)
PS: Are you getting that GOLDFEVER again ?
Gandy,,,, never lost it, just had to let the temp fall for a few months.....It's cool down here in the miles of caverns under the Castle.....No sign of Trail Guide tho! He must be wearing that invisibilty cape you gave him.....Regards YGM
Cytek
(09/24/2004; 23:42:11 MDT - Msg ID: 124693)
US AIR and Delta
Excerpt, AOL News article today:

"US Airways Asks Bankruptcy Court Permission to Cut Workers' Pay 23 Percent US Airways Group Inc., unable to win concessions from employees, asked a bankruptcy court judge to let it temporarily cut worker pay 23 percent and reduce benefits to preserve cash needed for daily operations. " Hmmm, and they wanted pay raises before the Bankruptcy! Now more cuts and no pension.

Delta Stock Drops Amid Bankruptcy Fears
Friday September 24, 8:59 pm ET
Delta Stock Drops More Than 8 Percent, Hits New 52-Week Low Amid Bankruptcy Fears


ATLANTA (AP) -- Delta Air Lines Inc.'s stock tumbled more than 8 percent to a new 52-week low Friday on persistent worries that the nation's third-largest carrier is headed toward bankruptcy.

Delta, which has warned of the possibility of bankruptcy, also has seen its former chief executive, chief operating officer and chief financial officer leave over the last year.

Cytek ... Looks like the airlines are going kaput again. The real question is, will they recover ths time with the POO at it's present level and continuing upward. And we know it's not coming down any time soon.

Gandalf the White
(09/25/2004; 00:15:13 MDT - Msg ID: 124694)
TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA -- Contests UPDATE !
http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/tools/guideandsignup.html
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. has issued a "CALL to CONTEST" ---

TWO separate Contests ---- An Essay writing Contest, and a POG Guessing Contest !!

TWO separate groups of Winning Prizes to be awarded to the WINNERS !!!

===
The ESSAY CONTEST is a short ESSAY statement of at least twenty-five words, answering ONE of the THREE following Propositions:

1. If elected, George Bush would be good for gold because___________________

2. If elected, John Kerry would be good for gold because_________________________

3. With respect to gold, the election doesn't matter because_______________

This Essay contest will run until Midnight, Sunday Oct. 2, 2004 (Denver time).

AND, after consultation with the Castle Barrister, it has been decided that the USAGOLD Forum will forego the restrictions on political postings during the time period of THIS ESSAY Contest. (The automatic posting deleation machine will be restarted on October 3rd !!!!)

The ESSAY Contest prizes are as follows:

A GOLD 10 Guilder Dutch King (0.1947 of Au) to the best Essay, and an one ounce Canadian Silver Maple Leaf to
each of the two runners-up.

WOWSERS -- A number of ESSAYS have been entered todate ! GREAT START !!!
===

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ ALSO A PRICE GUESSING CONTEST!!$$$$$$$$$$$$

In addition we will have a price guessing contest on the closing price of gold for the December Comex contract
(GC4Z) on Monday, October 4, 2004, ---BUT all entries must be posted to the TableRound before Midnight on Thursday, September 30th.

The POG Contest winner -- who will have the closest price guess to the actual closing price -- will receive an
one-tenth ounce GOLDEN Canadian Maple Leaf. There will be also be two runners-up prizes for the next closest prognostications --- each winning an one (1) one ounce Canadian Silver Maple Leaf.

====
THE RULES -- (We MUST have RULES !!) --- PLEASE READ !!

1) The Winner is the poster with the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX (most active) Decembr 2004 Gold Contract (GC4Z) on the date of Monday, October 4, 2004.

3) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $404.4)

4) "Guesses" shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT BOX location AND enclosed in markers of "Dollar Signs" so as to be OFFICIAL !
(Such as $$$$$$404.4 $$$$$$$ )

5) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".

6) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes MIDNIGHT (24:00) on Thursday, September 30, 2004.

7) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY as this part MUST accompany the Price prognostication --- In order for your entry to be valid, it must contain a few words on "Why you choose that number !" <===== NOTE !!!
---
LET the CONTESTS continue !
<;-)
====

POG Contest Entries as of SATURDAY 9/25/04 at just about 00:01 a.m. Denver time !!!

Listed in order of decreasing values !
----

$$$$ $437.5 $$$$ Cometose (9/23/04; 18:43:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 124657

$$$$ $427.4 $$$$ J-Bullion (9/23/04; 12:26:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 124639)

$$$$ $420.0 $$$$ Sundeck (9/22/04; 22:29:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 124616)

$$$$ $418.5 $$$$ Waverider (9/23/04; 18:23:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 124656)

$$$$ $411.4 $$$$ pilgrims_gold (9/24/04; 19:51:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 124687)

$$$$ $410.1 $$$$ Zhisheng (9/23/04; 10:23:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 124632)

$$$$ $409.5 $$$$ YGM (9/24/04; 14:41:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 124682)

$$$$ $402.9 $$$$ TBatler (9/23/04; 13:49:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 124641)

$$$$ $399.3 $$$$ Federal_Reserves (9/23/04; 13:19:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 124640)

$$$$ $398.6 $$$$ Smeagol (9/23/04; 17:30:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 124651)

$$$$ $378.0 $$$$ Topaz (9/23/04; 01:40:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 124621)

====
ATTENTION all you LURKERS and Newbies !! --- COME ON IN !

To be able to enter either or BOTH of the new CONTESTS you only need a FREE POSTING PASSWORD !
IF you do not have a FREE POSTING PASSWORD --- you can get one from the Town Crier at the LINK atop this message! The TownCrier makes it easy and painless too. There may be FREE GOLD and Silver awarded for your ESSAY and/or Price Pognostication.
<;-)
Ned
(09/25/2004; 03:08:50 MDT - Msg ID: 124695)
The "I told you so's" are coming out......
http://feeds.bignewsnetwork.com/?sid=b03d4c034241d26c"Three days before Australian Prime Minister John Howard committed his country to the Iraq war he was warned by Australia's leading expert on weapons of mass destruction, his case for war was based on falsehoods, and would make Australia a bigger terrorist target."
Ned
(09/25/2004; 03:17:23 MDT - Msg ID: 124696)
No ! ............. You're the terrorist!
"Israel calls Iran number one exporter of terrorism"


http://feeds.bignewsnetwork.com/?sid=76e140756e37a9f0



"Iran to U.N.: U.S. to blame for terrorism"

http://feeds.bignewsnetwork.com/?sid=d6cc4484a46608e4



.......................................................

It's getting very ugly, gotta end very badly. Headline News is posting yesterday's oil at $50.03.

Got your gold?


Ned
(09/25/2004; 04:06:04 MDT - Msg ID: 124697)
New Zealand pulls troops
http://www.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,4057,10853927%5E1702,00.html
Chris Powell
(09/25/2004; 06:52:25 MDT - Msg ID: 124698)
China acquires Noranda ...
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/2393... thereby trading surplus dollars for hard assets in mining.


To subscribe to GATA's dispatches, send an e-mail to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com
misetich
(09/25/2004; 08:08:49 MDT - Msg ID: 124699)
ATT - analysts expect close to 10,000 job cuts
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/09/25/business/25phone.htmlSnip:

Industry analysts expect close to 10,000 job cuts in the coming weeks so that the workers can be removed from AT&T's books by the end of the year.
***********
Misetich

Whils The Maestro and Wallstreet continue their assertion that economic recovery has regained traction, the news from the labor scene is grim

Auto industry is scheduled to cut production in the 4th Qtr, adding additonal woes

Inventories are rising, sales tepid at best - and input costs are rising

Is it a "soft patch" or "quicksand" ?

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
slingshot
(09/25/2004; 08:46:49 MDT - Msg ID: 124700)
$$$$$$404.9$$$$$$
Gold will take a run at the $425/$430 resistance level only to retreat to just above $400. With POO rising, unemployment, Fed Printing Press and many other contributing factors, all will be held in check till after the election.
Slingshot--------<>
Waverider
(09/25/2004; 09:04:15 MDT - Msg ID: 124701)
UK relieves debt burden on world's poor nations
http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2004/09/25/1095961916412.html?oneclick=true"Britain is to write off its share of debts owed by the world's poorest countries to the World Bank, Chancellor Gordon Brown is set to announce. And he will throw down the gauntlet to other rich nations to do the same, in a bid to lift the crippling burden of debt repayments from Third World nations, Treasury sources confirmed... Mr Brown currently holds the chair of the IMF and has long promoted policies to solve the international debt crisis, including 100 per cent relief on bilateral debt owed directly to Britain by heavily indebted poor countries.

Britain will also continue to call for the debt payments owed to the IMF to be funded through the more efficient use of IMF gold reserves in a way that would not affect the gold price."

Waverider: Chancellor Brown sold off 415 tonnes of Britains 715 tonnes of Gold between 1999-2002 at an average price of $275.00/ounce. Now he wants to sell IMF Gold - he either hasn't learned anything or there's ulterior motive.
YGM
(09/25/2004; 09:29:22 MDT - Msg ID: 124702)
Life After the Oil Crash .......Interesting Reading Site
http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/Introduction.html

Where will Gold be w/ Oil @ predicted $60+/p/barrel????
The times just get more complex, makes one think of NY city looking like somewhere in China w/ everyone riding a standard Gov't made bicycle.......No wonder all us old birds are looking to own a Harley D....(smile)...YGM
"GO GATA"
YGM
(09/25/2004; 09:37:54 MDT - Msg ID: 124703)
Peak Oil.....
Is this the Gary North site for the future of Energy or is it a visionary look at the coming reality>>>You be the judge!!!!!

http://www.peakoil.org/

If Oil payments still require partial payment in Gold then Gold must constantly be revalued as the Oil price balloons upward, not to mention the declining value of the greenback, and the stronger Euro.....So "Complex" as to boggle the mind......YGM
YGM
(09/25/2004; 09:48:58 MDT - Msg ID: 124704)
Eye Opener on Energy and the future...
http://greatchange.org/ov-thomson,convince_sheet.htmlFacts, and more facts, scientific undeniable facts, till your eyes go crossed.....Got your cheap Gold yet?????
Got a Bicycle and some spare "Rubber" tires?????

YGM
(09/25/2004; 10:14:40 MDT - Msg ID: 124705)
China buying Noranda Mines..........
http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=topNews&storyID=6330660Makes sense, dump US Greenbacks for guaranteed metal supply and no ripples in money markets either....Wait til they go after oil producers and Gold miners.....They have unlimited supply of US "PAPER". First they sent us cheap goods for inflated dollars now we get declining dollars back. Smart folks....
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(09/25/2004; 10:58:56 MDT - Msg ID: 124706)
Hard assets, easy access!
http://www.usagold.com/buy-gold-coins.html

gold -- a global calling card
Topaz
(09/25/2004; 15:18:23 MDT - Msg ID: 124707)
Shennanigans in the Derivatives.
http://www.crbtrader.com/data/default.asp?page=quote&sym=CLX4&mode=dSpreadsheet shows Oil futures, which don't reflect any panic in supply looking forward. What it DOES show is a large increase in OI during this current price runup AND a much larger than normal "interest" in the out-Months.
Several weeks ago I'd anticipated a move to contango in this market as a reflection of the much canvassed Oil shortage ... I'm still waiting! BUT, given the heavy presence in the aforementioned outMonths, is it no wonder an aura of calm exists here?
We also note Bond action of late where, contrary to much canvassed opinion, Bonds have rallied. Again I'd anticipated a Bond rally and this time got it. Not from a full blown Stock rout, but from short covering!

The very existance of these futures/options provide unprecedented opportunities for management in the marketplace ... and manage they are!

Welcome back YGM ... you've found the new posting box? ...GOOD -- ;-)
DryWasher
(09/25/2004; 15:54:00 MDT - Msg ID: 124708)
$$$$ $415.0 $$$$

As I write this on 9-25-2004 Gold is at about $407.70 and I expect it to be pushed a bit higher in the near short term due to the oil shortage caused by recent hurricanes and the continuing mess in Iraq, and 415 is a nice open number at the moment that seems to be as good of a guess as any.

As I see it, short term moves in the price of Gold are really not predictable, and it really is just a guessing game.

Over the long term I do feel confident the price will continue to rise and I think that is not a guessing game, although by exactly how much and when is. If one buys and holds for the long term, one should sleep soundly in my opinion.

DryWasher
mikal
(09/25/2004; 21:58:05 MDT - Msg ID: 124709)
Gold, a guru and guffaws
http://cdapress.com/articles/2004/09/25/business/bus01.txtSpeaker Slams Greenspan - 09-25-04
by Rick Thomas - Staff writer, Coeur d'Alene Press
Curious
(09/25/2004; 22:34:51 MDT - Msg ID: 124710)
Why are the financial impacts of FL hurricanes being ignored
Since 4 major hurricanes in Florida in the last 5 weeks have damaged or destroyed huge numbers of homes and businesses, the insurance deductibles will be substantial, persons will be unemployed, and many will be discouraged and leave the state, it would appear that many would stop making payments on their mortgages for homes they could no longer occupy. Additional thousands of loans would go into default, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would incur large losses, and the value of the bonds of these agencies would decline further. Yet the value of gold and silver and the major stock indexes are relatively stable. Is everyone asleep?

What will be the market value of the homes that are colatteral for these loans? Surely it will be lower than it was 2 months ago. Will anyone be willing to buy these homes with this hurricane risk?

I know that the real estate appraisers will try to ignore this decline in value since there will be few if any sales at lower prices (due to lack of buyers or the refusal of sellers to accept the substantially lower offers if any offers are made) but this does not change the fact that values have declined.

Would any real estate brokers or lenders in Florida care to comment on these issues? Where will the people get the money to live, to make repairs and to make loan payments when they were already financially stretched before the hurricanes?
Felix the Cat
(09/25/2004; 23:00:56 MDT - Msg ID: 124711)
$$$$ $412 $$$$
If elected, George Bush would be good for gold because it would be more wars and the world would be surround the feeling of be threatened by growing terrorism.
Belgian
(09/26/2004; 01:27:48 MDT - Msg ID: 124712)
@ Curious
Bravo with your very important observation. No we are NOT asleep...but...we complacently accept that we are living in a world where "confetti-helicopters" are part of the natural economic landscape. We don't see nor hear those helocopters. The confetti is dropped anyway...and the money-pumping is experienced as a benign fenomenon. This nicely called, "monetary expansion...money inflation" isn't affecting prices, substantionally ! We have NO REASON to worry. Look at those obscene 40 yrs low IRs and watch the helicopters. Experience the wellness of confetti-rains under all its appearances.

Ask Joe and Jane what they think about "monetary expansion"...and ...yep, right, they will think that you are from outer space. Pumping money into the system goes by many, many different ways. "Hiding"...masking, this ongoing debauche of confetti-inflation, has become easy cake...with "SIR" Alan. And the whole planet, as a dollar-derivative, is soooooohhhh happy that it can/is profit from this heavenly dollar-manna (bread).

This is the answer on your question, Sir... Lady.

Try to find out "HOW" this money (confetti) is pumped into the system...and you will see light.

It is the $-IMF's theory of money expansion-inflation...as to activate (swell) economic activity !!!
We managed to hold back the natural consequences of the insane confetti inflation, namely "Price Inflation"...proprotionate price inflation. Oil at $50-$60 dollars is still CHEAP ...very cheap !!!
Yes, Waverider...the UK (and all others) can very easely forgive, write off...all bilateral debt ! We are all swimming in debt anyway. It would be a smart move ...if the UK (or others) would get any Gold out (exchange) of the IMF 3,000 tonnes stash as compensation for the nice (ridicule) gesture of debt-forgiviness, wich are actually "debt-traps" !?

Today, everything is being "insured" with ...helicopter money. One can file for bankruptcy a hundred times, if you wish to do so. Massive bail outs everywhere ! Everything keeps running on the ever growing debt-streams. Better have "debt-bergs" replaced by "debt-streams". Flow with the stream, because there are no bergs/rocks...defaults...crashes ! For the time being.

Asia is an important element in the "NO REAL PRICE INFLATION" construction. The Asians know this also and what do we see...ASIANS ARE ACCUMULATING GOLD !!! Because they know also how this infla will go dada, at the end of the road.

The above picture could develop for one single reason : Dollar-money has been "SEPARATED" from GOLD, throug the $-paper-gold-Wall !!! Pause here...

Euro-money is going to take this $-paper-gold-Wall down as to connect/associate, AGAIN with GOLD...as the dollar was, long ago !!! Pause, again here...

Oil...the oilprice...the oil pricing, is in the process of making the "past" confetti inflation, "RECOGNISABLE" with the very beginning of general price-inflation ! That's the "REAL" fear in front of the oil-force ! Oil doesn't want to pump anymore, for the ridicule $-debt-paper reward. In the mean (fear)time, dollar-confetti-expansion, MUST go on and the derivative-insurances do "INFLATE", proportionately (see BIS statistics).


Our controllers, know very well that "their" constructed $-paper-gold-wall, will collapse as soon as "they" have to "connect - associate", confetti, with NON MONEY Gold Wealth, again.

It is Gold's absurd price, that is saying that Gold is NOT money. Your house, not rising in (Wealth) value, but rising in "price" (confetti-digits) is associated with the perception of money. Gold is non-monetary WEALTH. Gold is not taxed, doesn't depreciate, deteriorate, disintegrate, crumbles, ...you don't have to repair it...etc. Gold is not "monetary"...Gold is Wealth (the reference to Wealth).
It is the $-paper-gold-wall that is hiding you from seeing Gold as wealth and is forcing you to take Gold as money, confetti, digits.

During Gold's 5,000 years of history, w've gone through many cycles of confetti storms. We always had to go back and "refer" to the universal Wealth-standard of Gold.
Duisenberg : GOLD, will always remain an important... !
Don't take this statement lightly...even if it remains cryptic for you.

Gold's "stability" will bring a (price) level playing field in the next global economical expansion. This is the euro's job as the dollar-replacing numeraire.

Both booms, stockmarket AND housing, are NOT accidental !
These booms are the "canalization" of the confetti explosion. Trees and confetti NEVER grew into the sky. Back to Gold-Wealth is only a matter of time. And when it seems evident that the global economy is permanently less expanding proportionate to the confetti expansion...the end comes nearer at a faster pace. Thanks curious.
Liberty Head
(09/26/2004; 02:39:58 MDT - Msg ID: 124713)
****$407.7*****

Sign of the times and the times, they are a changin'.
I just watched the first ever Formula 1 race in China.
The most communist nation in the world hosted the most capitalist sport event in the world.
It had the largest number of viewers to watch a car race, ever.

Get gold.

Best Wishes



Belgian
(09/26/2004; 04:23:26 MDT - Msg ID: 124714)
Zurich 24 sept. '04 : Last tranche of gold sales...
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has, to date, already sold (???) 1,170 tonnes out of the 1,300 tonnes that was agreed upon in WAGI.

The SNB will adhere to its proven strategy of conducting the sales (???) in regular transactions (???) with prime institutions with wich it already maintains business relations (???)

The sale of this last tranche (130 tonnes) concludes the NB's move to sell (???) gold holdings...>>> no longer required for monetary policy purposes...

Nice press release for public consumption.

The remaining 130 tonnes of gold will be put on the market (???) by the end of march 2005.

Voila folks, the VERY RICH Swiss goldmine of "easy-gold" will be depleted in '05. And nobody knows where the yellow has drifted to ?
Isn't it extremely remarkable that this substantional stash of 1,300 tonnes of Gold has been re-distributed without significant change in the goldprice, especially in euro !!!-??? Yes, dear forumers...Not only the Swiss biggy but all other presumed goldsales + the 3,000 tonnes of goldmine forward sales...were not...NOT...of a nature to kill the goldprice. "Containment" of Gold's price is not the killing of it.

I want to stress on the idea that the presumed CB-goldsales are a gigantic maneuver in anticipation of FREEGOLD and not a simple gold-event without consequences.

The continued CB-Gold redistributions must be seen as a blessing for the Gold affectionados and must be a BIG signal for Gold ignorants !

The ongoing CB Gold re-distribution is the building safety net under the unbridled confetti expansion, organized by the main CBankers, themselves. The dollar's grip on goldprice containment will end long before it would theoretically be running at its natural end due to gold-shortage. The faster the euro is expanding, the more its Gold-Association will be needed !!! It is against this background that the trial-balloons of French/German/Italian possible Gold availability must be seen. Everything has a context. Chose the right one for your GOLD ! Good luck and nice end of the week to all of you.
Knallgold
(09/26/2004; 09:13:49 MDT - Msg ID: 124715)
Gold/IMF/oil/YGM
-Waverider,I think the IMF will just revalue its Gold and pocket the difference (as before,they remain the papermasters).To what degree it can relief the world from debt remains to be seen-certainly depends on how high they can re-value Gold :-)

-today I read in a mainstream automobile newspaper for the first time "peak oil"!

-a big hello to YGM from Another first-time GATAer!Frankly,I never thought to grow (well,lose...) so many gray hairs before Gold is walking free...Go GATA,Gold to da moon!It could happen even before the election!(you see,I didn't lose optimism)

Best regards,
"hugo"
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(09/26/2004; 10:58:05 MDT - Msg ID: 124716)
Hard assets, easy access!
http://www.usagold.com/buy-gold-coins.html

gold -- a global calling card
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(09/26/2004; 10:59:06 MDT - Msg ID: 124717)
A risk-free request, helping you enter the gold market with grace and confidence.
http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html

Get a head start on the gold market!
Gandalf the White
(09/26/2004; 11:23:34 MDT - Msg ID: 124719)
OOPS -- BIG ERROR -- !!! (Do not "cut and paste" when still asleep, GANDY !)
Entries as of SUNDAY 9/26/04 at just about 11:11 p.m. Denver time !!!
Gandalf the White
(09/26/2004; 11:26:36 MDT - Msg ID: 124720)
ROFL -- (Wake up and SMELL the Coffee, Gandy !)
Entries as of SUNDAY 9/26/04 at just about 11:11 a.m. (NOT p.m. !!) Denver time !!!
Smeagol
(09/26/2004; 11:39:46 MDT - Msg ID: 124721)

Thanks you, Ssir Belgian... for more light on the Golden puzzle-pieces... from what you ssaid, we ssee that the Swiss Gold...and mosst of the other Gold-sales... have resulted in a re-disstribution of It, a sspreading out of It, into the individual Euro countries, and those countries and other Powers that are friendly with them? In thiss way, all Gold/Euro connected boats will rise with the coming Gold-tide as they shed their dollar-anchors, yess? And each nation having it's own Gold-sstash will mean sstrength is not concentrated in a central and possibly more politically vulnerable position?

----

Alsso, we would be grateful for the Thoughts of any esteemed Knight or Lady of this Oaken Table Round on either or both of these two wonderings:

...which Gold-bullion coin (or bar?) is THE most preferred or universal, if there is one? Put another way, precious, if one were to ssuddenly awake in ssome unknown country with nothing but a handful of Gold-bullion coins in their pocketses, which would be the besst kind and size to have?

...we often hear rumor of Gold being marked-to-market in thousands, even ten-thousands of dollars, in the future... and while thiss ssounds wonderful at THISS moment in time, yess?... when Gold is finally unchained as the dollar becomes worth less, or worthless, the 'dollar-value' of all things will go up... while their 'wealth-value' remains more or less the ssame... will Gold have the ssame relative value then, or is it expected that it will increase (or decrease) more or less permanently against other goods and services as the Euro-shift happens? That is, after the dusst ssettles on the Euro and the Sun ssets on the dollar, will Gold have the ssame wealth-value (expressed as bargaining/trading/buying power) as it does today, or more, or less?

Resspectfully,
S.
Smeagol
(09/26/2004; 11:45:28 MDT - Msg ID: 124722)
(No Subject)
SMELLING the Coffee-draught is not enough, O Whitest of Wizardses... you have to DRINK it! (green-eyed grin)

S.
yellowmetal
(09/26/2004; 13:38:26 MDT - Msg ID: 124723)
Price Contest
$412.14
Gandalf the White
(09/26/2004; 14:26:29 MDT - Msg ID: 124724)
Note to Sir Yellowmetal ! <;-)
As Sir Smeagol advised -- I DRANK IT !
AND the Hobbits have taken your Four (4) cents !
(They thank you, and request that you read Rule #2 <;-) and #3 !) ESPECIALLY #3 !
yellowmetal (9/26/04; 13:38:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 124723)
Price Contest
$412.14
Gandalf the White
(09/26/2004; 14:30:01 MDT - Msg ID: 124725)
TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA -- POG Contest UPDATE !
http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/tools/guideandsignup.html
Entries as of SUNDAY 9/26/04 at just about 15:30 Denver time !!!

Listed in order of decreasing values !
----

$$$$ $437.5 $$$$ Cometose (9/23/04; 18:43:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 124657

$$$$ $427.4 $$$$ J-Bullion (9/23/04; 12:26:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 124639)

$$$$ $420.0 $$$$ Sundeck (9/22/04; 22:29:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 124616)

$$$$ $418.5 $$$$ Waverider (9/23/04; 18:23:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 124656)

$$$$ $415.0 $$$$ DryWasher (9/25/04; 15:54:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 124708)

$$$$ $412.1 $$$$ yellowmetal (9/26/04; 13:38:26MT - usagold.com msg#:

$$$$ $411.4 $$$$ pilgrims_gold (9/24/04; 19:51:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 124687)

$$$$ $410.1 $$$$ Zhisheng (9/23/04; 10:23:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 124632)

$$$$ $409.5 $$$$ YGM (9/24/04; 14:41:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 124682)

$$$$ $407.7 $$$$ Liberty Head (9/26/04; 02:39:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 124713)

$$$$ $404.9 $$$$ slingshot (9/25/04; 08:46:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 124700)

$$$$ $402.9 $$$$ TBatler (9/23/04; 13:49:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 124641)

$$$$ $399.3 $$$$ Federal_Reserves (9/23/04; 13:19:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 124640)

$$$$ $398.6 $$$$ Smeagol (9/23/04; 17:30:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 124651)

$$$$ $378.0 $$$$ Topaz (9/23/04; 01:40:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 124621)
===
<;-)
===
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. has issued a "CALL to CONTEST" ---

TWO separate Contests ---- An Essay writing Contest, and a POG Guessing Contest !!

TWO separate groups of Winning Prizes to be awarded to the WINNERS !!!

===
The ESSAY CONTEST is a short ESSAY statement of at least twenty-five words, answering ONE of the THREE following Propositions:

1. If elected, George Bush would be good for gold because___________________

2. If elected, John Kerry would be good for gold because_________________________

3. With respect to gold, the election doesn't matter because_______________

This Essay contest will run until Midnight, Sunday Oct. 2, 2004 (Denver time).

AND, after consultation with the Castle Barrister, it has been decided that the USAGOLD Forum will forego the restrictions on political postings during the time period of THIS ESSAY Contest. (The automatic posting deleation machine will be restarted on October 3rd !!!!)

The ESSAY Contest prizes are as follows:

A GOLD 10 Guilder Dutch King (0.1947 of Au) to the best Essay, and an one ounce Canadian Silver Maple Leaf to
each of the two runners-up.

WOWSERS -- A total of TEN (10), EARLYBIRD ESSAYS have been entered todate ! GREAT START !!!
===

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ ALSO A PRICE GUESSING CONTEST!!$$$$$$$$$$$$

In addition we will have a price guessing contest on the closing price of gold for the December Comex contract
(GC4Z) on Monday, October 4, 2004, ---BUT all entries must be posted to the TableRound before Midnight on Thursday, September 30th.

The POG Contest winner -- who will have the closest price guess to the actual closing price -- will receive an
one-tenth ounce GOLDEN Canadian Maple Leaf. There will be also be two runners-up prizes for the next closest prognostications --- each winning an one (1) one ounce Canadian Silver Maple Leaf.

====
THE RULES -- (We MUST have RULES !!) --- PLEASE READ !!

1) The Winner is the poster with the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX (most active) Decembr 2004 Gold Contract (GC4Z) on the date of Monday, October 4, 2004.

3) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $404.4)

4) "Guesses" shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT BOX location AND enclosed in markers of "Dollar Signs" so as to be OFFICIAL !
(Such as $$$$$$404.4 $$$$$$$ )

5) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".

6) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes MIDNIGHT (24:00) on Thursday, September 30, 2004.

7) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY as this part MUST accompany the Price prognostication --- In order for your entry to be valid, it must contain a few words on "Why you choose that number !" <===== NOTE !!!
---
LET the CONTESTS continue !
<;-)
====


Belgian
(09/26/2004; 15:56:36 MDT - Msg ID: 124726)
@ Smeagol
You can have bullion in almost any weight : 12 Kg (CB bars)...1 Kg (common in Euroland)...down to less than a gram (wafers to coins). Let our host guide you to find out what's best for you.

I keep on accumulating the yellow metal for an increasing amount of reasons all boiling down to one single common denomenator : After 35 years of investing, speculating and yes, even gambling with my confetti surplusses...I lost all confidence/trust in all things paper...digits...and the "paper-system" ! The financial risk-reward equation is increasingly turning negative for those (like me) with that old classic/conventional/conservative "investment" mentality. I am not derivative-minded and the majority of Eurolanders, with savings, as well.

In Euroland, nobody ever considers something like gold-confiscation (no paranoia). So we don't have to take into consideration any possibility of finding ourselves outside Euroland with goldcoins in our pocket. We buy and sell (trade) bullion in our bank where one is a client.

I haven't been accumulating gold for the sole purpose of getting another classic round of price-inflation hedged.
If the future would only bring "some" new price inflation...I wouldn't have lost my trust in the paper and its system. Paper "has" always been compensating the past price-inflation, to an acceptable level for the active participants in the financial arena. But I stick to my intuitive opinion that something is severely rotten (rotting) in the state of financials and monetary. That's WHY the goldprice has stayed...is staying...absurdly low.

Yes, I do consider the very high probability of a very high goldprice (minimal x 10 in �), indeed...and have therefore diversified my Gold Wealth into different weights, for practical reasons.

Most, if not all goldbugs don't even dare to dream about POG x 10. That's WHY they never realise that Gold, today, is obscenely low priced. The goldprice of $400/Oz is the indicator of the organized price-inflation (x10) since the seventies. But in the comparaison efforts of the real price-inflation, most are comparing apples with dades (cost of living). Most start with the premisse that the $41 POG of '71 was correct. Gold was already absurdly low priced, then !!! We were on a "fixed" (price) Gold Echange standard, before '71.

All gold-talks make the same mistake of linear gold-thinking and projection of the Gold-past into the future.
FREEGOLD has nothing to see with an arbitrary price-pricing of the Gold-Wealth. Maybe Ari (The Best) should have the kindness to translate this into correct understandable English.

FreeGold will always keep rising in price, because there will always be a permanent depreciation of the numeraires.
But before we connect to FreeGold, again...Gold's reral Value must be expressed in its appropiate price. The goldprice has been contained for seventy years, now !!! Look at communist Russia. One cannot change 75 yrs of communistic regime, overnight and transform it in a smooth running capitalist society. Seventy years of Gold marginalization at the advantage of the dollar standard, means that Gold-Value has to do some real serious catching up in price, before a new FreeGold regime can genuinly function. All gold-watchers would probably...at best... like this, but never believe for one nanosecond that such a thing (dramatic change) could happen. I mean POG into the 5 $-digits. How could the almighty dollar ever lose its "reserve" status...!?

Today in Euroland, we have many (conservative) authoritive and genuine speeches about going back to Norms and Values.
I see good reasons for optimism and consider Gold within the "Value" part of this building Euroland. The "Re-Valuation" of Gold will come from Euroland. Now I start to understand A/FOA's, political will-thing, better and better.

Maybe, as an Eurolander...I'm biased in my bets on the dollar's survival as reserve currency and world trade numeraire. But when the ECB refuses to say a word about the dollar...I'm getting very...VERY... suspicious. I still consider the ECB as being even better than the former Bundesbank. The day I start to doubt about the ECB, Euroland's building and the euro, I will say so openly on this forum...and exchange my Gold for only 3 or 4 digits of numeraire. Then the dollar has won its battle with Gold and FreeGold will be postponed for another long period. Then it will be par-gold again that is on the order of the day.
But Euroland is NOT alone in its views and strives for a global financial/monetary level playing field. It is the dollar that is unfortunately, increasingly being isolated from this nice more harmonic future.

Gold and its price is NOT a matter of charts and projections of the past anymore. Gold's ReValuation will be ballistic on pure fundamentals. This conclusion took me some time and great efforts ! Think that it is worth having done it. Sssssseeee you tomorrow morning Sssssir.
The Invisible Hand
(09/26/2004; 16:15:41 MDT - Msg ID: 124727)
Another('s) book
http://pressherald.mainetoday.com/audience/stories/040926authorreadin.shtmlSNIP
Author Carol Brightman's newly-published book. "Total Insecurity: The Myth of American Omnipotence," takes a critical look at the U.S. government's invasion of Iraq. Brightman argues that the U.S. invaded Iraq because of fears that OPEC would switch from the dollar to the euro.
Boilermaker
(09/26/2004; 16:37:54 MDT - Msg ID: 124728)
Gold Essay Contest
If elected, John Kerry will be good for gold because�����

My first reaction to the essay question was to think that whatever happens in the 2004 presidential election will have little effect on the relentless march of the US economy into the economic abyss. Hence, gold will do what gold does when confronted by chaos; it will go up very substantially no matter who is president.

However, the direction taken in the short term by the next president could greatly affect the velocity of gold's appreciation in this decade. Here is my reasoning. US investors are like lemmings as Black Blade has been fond of reminding us. There is tremendous "wealth" in the US that scurries around looking for the next "investment" play or just for a safe haven. Like unsecured cargo below decks it will threaten and may sink the ship when the storm comes.
The question arises where will US wealth take refuge in the coming storm? Unlike some cultures whose people squirrel-away golden coins and trinkets Americans have been like grasshoppers in a perpetual summer. They are brainwashed to accept as truth that their nation's ship can outmaneuver the storms and that they may "stay the course" with their third-party paper investments and mortgaged homes. So, when the currency blows up, paper assets begin to burn and repossessed homes flood the market, these folks will be in welfare lines. But there will be those Americans with significant wealth who will see the storm coming and make plans. Their plans will be mobilized by fear, not greed, and guided by their perception of the current administration's attitude towards wealth. The more hostile (in terms of taxation) an Administration is perceived to be towards wealth the more wealth will be converted to gold. In effect, gold, because of its anonymity, will have a larger market share of the "wealth" storage market under a wealth-hostile administration.

Now it's debatable who, Bush or Kerry, will prove most hostile to wealth but my money's on the Democrat when I judge on precedent. So, if you're looking for gold leverage in the next election, go with Kerry. If you're looking for a good president, wait for another election.

Waverider
(09/26/2004; 17:09:36 MDT - Msg ID: 124729)
Gold May Rise on Concern Oil Will Spur Inflation, Survey Says
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000087&sid=a_zucJYimaSk&refer=top_world_newsSept. 27 (Bloomberg) -- "Gold may rise for a fourth straight week as record-high oil prices boost the precious metal's allure as a hedge against inflation, a Bloomberg survey showed. The three-week rally in gold is the longest since January, as oil surged 11 percent during that period to a record closing price of $48.88 a barrel on Sept. 24. Consumer prices this year rose at a 3.7 percent annual rate through August, compared with an increase of 2.4 percent a year earlier.

``Hold on to your hats because inflation's coming,'' said Jonathan Battershill, an analyst at brokerage Hartleys Ltd. in Perth, Australia. ``Gold will provide investors with a natural hedge position as oil extends its rally this week," he said. ``Despite what the government says, that inflation is tame, it's very hard for people to swallow that news when they pay higher prices in grocery stores and at the pumps,'' said John Person, head financial analyst for Chicago-based Infinity Brokerage Services. ``The gold market will respond in a bullish manner." ``The low inflation numbers coming out of the U.S. are starting to look farcical,'' Battershill of Hartleys said. ``How can continued, elevated raw-material prices not impact the cost of fabricated and value-added products?''

Waverider: Yup - tighten your seat-belts and hold on to your hats alright!
Smeagol
(09/26/2004; 18:21:48 MDT - Msg ID: 124730)
Ssir Belgian "snips" from msg#: 124726

"In Euroland, nobody ever considers something like gold-confiscation (no paranoia). So we don't have to take into consideration any possibility of finding ourselves outside Euroland with goldcoins in our pocket."

O, that's a welcome feeling... we didn't mean to imply theft, or leaving the country, in our quesstion, it was only for the thought of what might be the mosst universally accepted Gold-piece, if there is one.

We does reserve ssome paranoia as far as the US-country goes, precious, if only because of passt events... perhaps the marking-to-market of the US Gold-reserves, if it happens, will keep them happy enough they will only assk that citizens do their 'patriotic duty' and 'volunteer' their Gold 'for the good of the country'... ha!

"...I lost all confidence/trust in all things paper...digits...and the "paper-system" ! The
financial risk-reward equation is increasingly turning negative for those (like me) with that old classic/conventional/conservative "investment" mentality. I am not derivative-minded and the majority of Eurolanders, with savings, as well."

We agrees one hundred and ten percent with you, kind Ssir! The Precious of the Sun and Moon have never hurt us, only helped, and it is a very ssatisfying thing to be able to put one's hard-earned 'potential (not made real yet) wealth' (paper, digits) into Gold/Silver stasis and ssleep ssoundly, knowing that whatever happens, that wealth
will be there when called upon.

"Maybe, as an Eurolander...I'm biased in my bets on the dollar's survival as reserve currency and world trade numeraire. But when the ECB refuses to say a word about
the dollar...I'm getting very...VERY... suspicious."

Perhaps the ECB figures the dollar is already getting enough, or too much, attention ahead of sschedule? Perhaps they wait until after all the Gold-sales are complete. Perhaps they will never have to ssay anything, and only watch!

Thank you, Ssir. We enjoys reading your Postss.
S.
Noble1
(09/26/2004; 18:22:49 MDT - Msg ID: 124731)
****$416.20****
The price of gold on Monday, October 4, 2004? It's interesting that you ask that question because I calculated that figure a couple of years ago. I took the price of gold on Sept. 17, 2002, multiplied that by the sun's gravitational pull (corrected by the moon's opposition), divided that amount by silver's price on that date and again multiplied that by oil's price. I then took the second derivative of that product and then factored in my proprietary hedonic adjustment multiple and came up with exactly $416.20. This method has never been wrong. After the closing on that date you only need to modify the hedonic multiple within the formula and you will always come up with the correct answer!

Remember: At some point, only physical gold in posession will satisfy the claim.

Noble1
Smeagol
(09/26/2004; 18:34:33 MDT - Msg ID: 124732)
Gotcha!

What's poor Ssir Yellowmetal to do?
...there is no Rule Number Two in the Price-Guessing Contesst...

A double esspresso for Ssir Gandalf! (cackle!)

S.
Gandalf the White
(09/26/2004; 20:54:15 MDT - Msg ID: 124733)
<;-) Comments !

Sir Smeagol --- Somefolk can see Rule #2, Others can not !
MAGIC !!
Sir Noble 1 --- YOU came up with the SAME Number that I just arrived at, via my methods ! Now I must "do" them all over again !!
<;-)
Gandalf the White
(09/26/2004; 22:13:23 MDT - Msg ID: 124734)
$$$$ $416.3 $$$$
FINALLY, I have arrived at my VALUE for the Price of GOLD Contest ! I was taught to use the sexagesimal system by my good old friend, Leonardo Pisano, better known by his nickname "Fibonacci". As you know Sir Smeagol, these calculations are done in the base 60, as were used by the Ancient Babylonians. (The remnants of sexagesimal notation remain in our present method of telling time and measuring angles.)

Anyway, I found a small variation in the movement of my "slip stick" between the loglog scale and the present high level of outstanding COMEX Oct. '04 Gold Options, which has resulted in now having chosen the VALUE of $416.3 as my CONTEST ENTRY !

REMEMBER that there are only a little more than four days until the ENTRY DEADLINE on Thursday MIDNIGHT, and the good numbers are rapidly being choosen !
<;-)
Great Albino Bat
(09/26/2004; 22:43:00 MDT - Msg ID: 124735)
20% Devaluation of US$ being talked about....
http://www.amtddj.inlumen.com/bin/djstory?StoryId=Cqvy:WaebqLqWmde2mtG09/26/2004
Dow Jones News Services
(Copyright � 2004 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.)



LONDON (Dow Jones)--U.S. President George Bush is being urged to signal a dollar devaluation of up to 20% to rebalance the global economy ahead of Friday's Group of Seven and International Monetary Fund meetings in Washington, the U.K.'s The Business newspaper reported.

Senior U.S. administration officials in Washington have over the past few days tried to influence the White House and U.S. Treasury to put pressure on the G7 to agree to a dollar depreciation in its final statement, the newspaper said.

Recent data have shown the U.S. current account and trade deficits running at record levels, and economists have said a dollar depreciation is needed to rein these in.

Gandalf the White
(09/26/2004; 22:49:34 MDT - Msg ID: 124736)
WOWSERS !!!! Sir GAB -- THAT news is GOLDEN !!!
let me see --- $407.5 (Present SPOT)/0.8 = ????
ONLY $509.4 !!!
HOLD ON TO YOUR sombrero !
<;-)
Great Albino Bat
(09/26/2004; 22:54:58 MDT - Msg ID: 124737)
Interesting situation....

Since the Dollar is the world's reserve currency, it turns out the US cannot unilaterally devalue its currency like other countries that do not have the "exorbitant privilege" of creating the world's money.

Why? Well, how do you make your money worth less in terms of other money, when your money is what all the moneys relate to. Can't be done. There has to be ANOTHER, superior, money as a reference - and that money would have to be GOLD. The US Dollar however, is not tied to gold at a market price (or in any other way) and it merely quotes its "reserves" (perhaps mythical) at a fictitious $42.22/oz.

So the US can't devalue against gold, it gave up that option in 1971.

So, now we see the spectacle of the US trying to convince the ROTW (Rest Of The World) to have THEIR currencies go up, so the dollar can buy less from the ROTW.

Fat chance! Who is going to agree to strangle their exports to the US? No way, Josay! And agree to a 20% discount on their bond investments in the trillions?

This kind of talk foretells financial earthquakes.

What a world.

The GAB
Great Albino Bat
(09/26/2004; 23:23:43 MDT - Msg ID: 124738)
Continuing with the "Interesting Situation"....

The only way the US can restore some equilibrium to its international commerce (i.e. Trade Balance) is to abandon its reserve currency status. No other way, in my view. None.

This will happen either in an orderly way, or in a disorderly way.

It's just my feeling that the reserve currency status will not go without disorder. Too many interests pulling in different directions for order to prevail.

The reserve currency status will just "drop dead" at some point. All Hell will break loose, or maybe the other way around: first all Hell breaks loose, then the dollar goes.

At that point, hard as it is to visualize, countries will not trade except on the condition that deficits/surpluses are paid/collected in GOLD.

The old view was that the New World Order would at some point, introduce the IMF as the World Central Bank; it would then control all banking around the world from a central point. However...now with the EMU and the Euro, it seems (I emphasize seems) to me that that plan is out. Europe would not accede to it, at all.

If gold is going to be used to settle international trade balances, then we can look forward to an enormous REVALUATION of gold against the paper currencies of all countries.

There would be a great deal of turmoil, to put it mildly, before the dust settled on that one.

Let me add another thought: when the gold revaluation that is imperative takes place, not all currencies will be devalued by the same percentages. The countries with "sounder" economies would not revalue gold as much as countries with "unsound" economies. It might take some time to discover who is who.

Good night and sleep tight.

The GAB
yellowmetal
(09/26/2004; 23:47:53 MDT - Msg ID: 124739)
Contest Entry Blunder
Gandalf of the White/Smeagol, sorry about my goof concerning rules #3 and 4. (I think I got it now.) Always had trouble to do the simple things right. I guess the exitement of possibly winning got the better of me.
Gandalf the White
(09/27/2004; 00:07:35 MDT - Msg ID: 124740)
TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA -- Contests UPDATE !
http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/tools/guideandsignup.html
Entries as of MONDAY 9/27/04 at just about 00:01 Denver time !!!

Listed in order of decreasing values !
----

$$$$ $437.5 $$$$ Cometose (9/23/04; 18:43:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 124657

$$$$ $427.4 $$$$ J-Bullion (9/23/04; 12:26:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 124639)

$$$$ $420.0 $$$$ Sundeck (9/22/04; 22:29:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 124616)

$$$$ $418.5 $$$$ Waverider (9/23/04; 18:23:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 124656)

$$$$ $416.3 $$$$ Gandalf the White (9/26/04; 22:13:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 124734)
$$$$ $416.2 $$$$ Noble1 (9/26/04; 18:22:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 124731)

$$$$ $415.0 $$$$ DryWasher (9/25/04; 15:54:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 124708)

$$$$ $412.1 $$$$ yellowmetal (9/26/04; 13:38:26MT - usagold.com msg#:

$$$$ $411.4 $$$$ pilgrims_gold (9/24/04; 19:51:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 124687)

$$$$ $410.1 $$$$ Zhisheng (9/23/04; 10:23:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 124632)

$$$$ $409.5 $$$$ YGM (9/24/04; 14:41:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 124682)

$$$$ $407.7 $$$$ Liberty Head (9/26/04; 02:39:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 124713)

$$$$ $404.9 $$$$ slingshot (9/25/04; 08:46:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 124700)

$$$$ $402.9 $$$$ TBatler (9/23/04; 13:49:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 124641)

$$$$ $399.3 $$$$ Federal_Reserves (9/23/04; 13:19:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 124640)

$$$$ $398.6 $$$$ Smeagol (9/23/04; 17:30:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 124651)

$$$$ $378.0 $$$$ Topaz (9/23/04; 01:40:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 124621)
===
<;-)

TAA TAA TAAAAAAAAAAAAA, TAA TAA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !
http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/tools/guideandsignup.html

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. has issued a "CALL to CONTEST" ---

TWO separate Contests ---- An Essay writing Contest, and a POG Guessing Contest !!

TWO separate groups of Winning Prizes to be awarded to the WINNERS !!!

===
The ESSAY CONTEST is a short ESSAY statement of at least twenty-five words, answering ONE of the THREE following Propositions:

1. If elected, George Bush would be good for gold because___________________

2. If elected, John Kerry would be good for gold because_________________________

3. With respect to gold, the election doesn't matter because_______________

This Essay contest will run until Midnight, Sunday Oct. 2, 2004 (Denver time).

AND, after consultation with the Castle Barrister, it has been dec