In one quick breath he says he doesn't recommend the futures game, but why does he continue to put forth the great effort to selectively cheerlead for paperGold and nullify the fundamental physicalGold discussions put forth by the more fully informed Gold advocates among us?

Does Rich rub his hands together with glee when he sees posters like da2g begin to toy with his siren song and join in the melody? "Had my investment approach been more heavily weighted to paper over these past 5 years or so, and the resulting dollar profits converted to physical, I would now, without question, be holding far more physical." -- (msg#: 125978)

Complete nonsense. Not a chance. Guys that are capable of that are 3 in a billion, and they certainly wouldn't suggest that anyone else could be capable of it. Don'tcha see? The greed/addict mentality that believes more gains can be had in paper games is the same mentality that determines how any resulting profits are invested. And assuming there were indeed profits, the prevailing mentality says to put the profits right back into the same "tried-and-true" sort of ventures in furtherance of their hopeful addiction to maximizing papery gains. Sure, they think one day they'll take chips off the table, but not just yet. Not until their next big score. And if/when that score comes, it reinforces their idea that paper is a game that's a good place to STAY.

So unless da2g is one of those rarest 3-in-a-billion guys who do successfully use paper as their source of income with the discipline for a vital establishment and growth of savings in solid Gold, I'd reject his current Rich-esque hypothesis and say that da2g is now, without question, holding more Physical exactly because of rather than in spite of his past course of wisdom, determination and objective action than would have been the case if he'd try to play paper into a bigger hand. Ask any addict -- if they had a similar hypothetical benefit of all-knowing foresight, they'd enjoy their addiction right up until just prior to last fateful hit that cost them everything and left them ruined. Unfortunately, when you play the paper game there's no knowing when that fateful moment will arrive that leaves you holding an empty bag. That's why a man of greater wisdom and less ego/pride than Rich will not lift a single finger to foist the theoretical merits of paperGold onto anyone's radar, but will quietly as my friend (or loudly as me) set a good example by regularly taking his income from whatever sources and consolidating the wealth tangibly, especially as Gold savings.

But let's get right down to it. Rich has become so good at ignoring our primary points, fabricating straw men and making long diversionary oratories on the undisputed "freeness" and workings of the futures market, there's no getting through to him how the free liberalities of the derivative markets has resulted in the unfree smothering of Goldmetal.

Let's say for argument sake that he makes the bullion banker's case so well I'm finally sold -- he's won me over and shown me the pedestrian error of my ways.

So now what am I going to do as a course correction? Let's imagine some nice round numbers to keep this exciting and make the math easier to follow. I'm going to take my 10,000 Physical ounces and sell them at the current spot price for a cash in hand payment of $4,250,000.

According to Rich, the risk of counterparty default or COMEX rule change are at once negligible. His concession to the possibility of error on that score is countered only by painting scenes of a complete armageddon which would his miscalculation as something of minor comparative importance.

OK, so Rich has worked hard to convince us of the infallibility of the counterparty-based derivative markets, so that even someone as stupid as I am can see that at 100 ounces being represented by each contract I only need 100 of these "good-as-Gold" COMEX contracts to maintain the essence of my old-fashioned 10,000 ounces. And with the low low $2,025 margin cost per contract, out of the $4.25 million in cash I got for my Gold sale it'll only cost me $202,500 to reestablish a "good-as-Gold" weightless account as the modern equivalent to the stodgy old 10,000 oz I'd been holding like an dimwitted caveman.

Now here's where I need help. What am I supposed to do next -- wring my hands together with a greedy look in my eye, along with every other smart Rich-wannabe who, like me sold all their Goldmetal and replaced it cheaply with infallible contracts??? What's the next leg? If we wait long enough the jewelry people will eventually buy up all of our dishoarded Goldmetal on the spot physical market, and when it runs out they will then start buying our COMEX contracts (driving up the price and filling our pockets with paper) so that the jewelers can get delivery from the only remaining game (weightless as it is) in town???? And I do say *jewelers* only, because by then all of the smart *investors* will have already long gotten 100% into these conveniently weightless COMEX accounts, ultimately counting on selling their weightless long positions in turn to the jeweler-boys at such time as the investor-boys might separately want/need to cash out.

Tell me, again, if the Physical market gets tight/dry, why would the jeweler-boys pay us weightless investors top dollar to have our long contracts?

Sheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeesh.

And I've said this before, but Rich can't get a clue so I'll say it again. Consider the mechanics of my tale as presented. If I'm willing to walk around in Rich's shoes under the impression that the COMEX contracts are infallible cheap alternatives to Gold, look again at what it was that I did. As a buyer (long) of the paperGold, I was at the same time a natural liquidator/seller of my Physical metal -- in Rich's special world nobody needs both, right?

Now understand this -- the other side of the equation. Think hard. Those "crazy cabal(???) bastards" who are the notorious sellers (short) of the paperGold, they are at the same time naturally buyers of the Physical metal that comes forth as Rich recruits more patsies to buy into his infallible paper scheme.

Just say no to pushers. And while you're at it, tell Rich to cancel your order -- you won't be needing a concrete driveway because someone else more clever than he is already sold you a paper one on margin so that you might milk it as a profit center.

I predict he still won't get it.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

If Rich has his physical "hoard" in place, what's the big deal with "gambling" his extra spending money?

Oh, he's contributing to our little problem, you say. Well, I guess that's our little problem. It certainly isn't his, if he's making money.

It'll take a much bigger fish than Rich to bring this baby down.

I stayed in the gold and silver stocks until last year and did quite well (for me) and I definitely wouldn't call it an addiction because I was scared ##%$less the whole time. Because I believe in you guys. I believe it will come to a crashing end. But criticizing people who are actually making money legally in these stark times is starting to annoy me.

Sorry for ranting.
I'll take the flames now.

Perhaps I've been wrong all of these years. I've been under the solid impression physical vs. paper wasn't the premise for debate on this site, but a side argument, perhaps worthy of discussion now and again, but to offer this up as the avenue to riches, I'll put my nod in, "foolhardy at best".

As a professional trader, I derive all of my income from the markets, and I'll firmly say I've always believed the argument for physical gold as a holding was a hedge against dollar devaluation. So, in this instance where the discussion centers around "should I trade the contracts", or "hold tightly onto my physical metal". From my standpoint, there isn't any point I find worthy of much discussion, other than to recommend purchasing a dozen wheelbarrows now why you can still afford them. This is of course, if you're successful. Most are not, and yes men do go broke in a Bull Market.

A trader who, perhaps is successful(best case scenario), will be cashing out one paper contract for another, where he'll find relentless dilution has taken hold not allowing him to purchase the tangibles, "He thought it would", when he started the endeavor. The problem for the successful trader isn't the standard default of the contract, the problem is the devaluation of the currency he's trading in. What will those paper digits purchase today, compared with yesteryear? This is why FOA mentioned, the leverage will be in the physical metal. Which I found to be solid advice.

You've been lucky to this point the gold contract is primarily trading against the dollar in a hedge function. Perhaps, soon it will trade in a leveraged fashion against the decline in a currency which is losing its reserve status? A marking to market of all those past promises to pay. Standing there with fists clenched around contracts filled with promise, but paying only in another promise. A fulfillment of the contract in due course, but what will it purchase...like I said, "wheelbarrows".

For those not so bold:

Gold, get you some, why you can still afford it...

The (Physical) CoinGuy

The Financial Times ran a front page story about the high volatility in investment markets based upon the election turning into legal battleground for determined lawyers on both sides of the political fence out ostensibly to "insure a fair election." Expect turbulent markets, they say, and a falling dollar if the election fails to produce a "clear result." That volatility seems to have calmed somewhat in today's trading though the day is young, and the profit-taking in the gold and dollar market might well be premature. (We'll find out tomorrow.) Short positions against the dollar, FT reports, are up 50% in recent days -- reaching a record in euro trade. Bond market investors are readying themselves for "strong moves." The most far-reaching conclusions came from Tobias Levkovich, chief U.S. equities strategist at Smith Barney. A 'hung-jury', he said, could lead to lawsuits and challenges that could undermine confidence in American democracy and cause investors to flee US markets." There were several references to the 2000 election and how the situation then compares to the present.

As I pointed out last week, there is one major component present now that was missing then. When Congress adjourned for the election, it failed to pass a resolution to raise the debt ceiling above the $7.4 trillion level. The government is now for all intents and purposes operating out of an over-drawn checking account. One wonders if one political party or both have it in mind to hold the budget hostage over a 'hung-jury' election. Under normal circumstances I would conclude that though these political parties hate each other and we are a nation deeply at odds with itself, they would certainly come together when their mutual best interests were at stake as they are in keeping the government in operation. At the same time, we do not know how far the politicians are willing to go if they believe they've been cheated by the other side in this bitterly contested election. Anyone who's followed this election will attest to the fact that the mind-set in both parties is such that anything is possible.

So it gets down to this: What are the chances that this election will be contested, dragged on, and once again sent on to the Supreme Court? Further on in the Financial Times, Patti Waldmeir who writes the legal column for that newspaper provides the hint of an answer:

"I find it hard to believe that at the end of the end of the day, these people [the lawyers] are going to say 'No, we didn't see anything." Doug Chapin, Director, electionline.com (non-partisan)

And then she quotes former U.S. Solicitor General, Theodore Olsen:

"Anyone who thinks that these litigation-hungry warriors will not do what they have been born, bred, paid and inspired to do if the election is close does not understand the species."

Ultimately, we can hope for a clear victor, but the polls are telling us that several states are hotly contested. The lawyers will be out in force - battallions of them we are told. By sheer numbers, this in itself ups the argument for a 'hung-jury."

Those of you who can't wait for this election to be over may awaken Wednesday morning to discover that it's going to be with us for some time to come. If you think its been tedious thus far, wait until you have thousands of lawyers at each others' throats over the outcome.

All I can say is let's hope we get through it in one piece. At the same time, it is in your best interest to be aware that there might be even more dire consequences should a candidate not be chosen than if we have a clear victor - no matter your political persuasion.

http://www.nypost.com/news/nationalnews/33124.htmAs reported in the NY Post:

November 1, 2004 -- WASHINGTON - Osama bin Laden warned in his October Surprise video that he will be closely monitoring the state-by-state election returns in tomorrow's presidential race � and will spare any state that votes against President Bush from being attacked, according to a new analysis of his statement.


In tomes of uncertainty, buy gold.

Lots of solid arguments. Still it's a question of perspective. Physical Gold (and Silver) vis a vis the US paper confetti has brought solid gains - at least in relative value this past few years. It has therefor fulfilled its promise of insurance vs paper values and in particular vs the US reserve hegeminial fiat Dollar.

In a broader sense and in the spectrum of currencies, as included in the DXO it hasn't done scratch. Having been around the markets an in particular the gold market for most of my professional as well as private life, I admit being too early involved again - that is from 1993 - when I thougt we may be at the start of another secular bull market in PM's. I've been completely wrong, even if I could've made a real fortune at that time with some of my miners. With hindsight, I appreciate that the PPT has really started to get serious about their game. And they did.

In the aftermath of the Oct. 1987 crash the flood gates of monetary intervention, managed markets and hedonic accounting, reporting and worse started to take off in all its ghastly (un-)reality. Even A.G. got scared of the witchcraft he'd released, and found exhuberance in financial markets - which doubled exhuberantly only a few
short years later.

From here on it was not only A.G. and the FED becoming slaves to their own Keynesian addictive medicine. It was the whole globe and the "propaganda" surrounding globalization. A globalization gone awry and backfiring on the instigators. Outsourcing everthing including their own econmic future ... whatfor? Oh, to win another day or two ...

Now we have the consumer as a last resort of economic growth. GDP growth (in particular in the US) is tied to the willingness of consumers to go even more into debt - oh, this is called credit in Alice's Wonderland.

Looks like we're eating the seed corn! And I guess what that means we all know.

Now, Gold has to establish a clear upward trend vs all other (strong) currencies before I would give up my stance towards some paper trades. I would suggest to really re-read MK's ABC of Gold Investing and his intention to really
educate some people towards the rewards of real physical.

Personally, I have learned to be more humble in my investment strategies than ever before. I've also learned not to trust the bigotry of one only strategy, however scalding their message ... Thank you for bearing with me -

cb2

"it hasn't done scratch". Except return twice what the dollar has lost. Now I understand this isn't enough for some individuals who need the leverage fix. I myself am a major shareholder in more than a dozen companies. I do trade the contract in all materials, but a strategy built on this basis, I believe will leave you wanton as we go forward. There can be one extreme, exchanged for another, perhaps the middle ground is best in all cases, but this argument leaves a bitter taste in my mouth? It is in this instance, where we find ourselves on the end of a Reserve when extra measures need to be brought into the conversation. Especially, when it concerns the medium in which you save all of your hard earned gains(seedcorn).

I will add, taking the paper approach is not a "thinking outside the box" approach, but taking the past roads that are well traveled. Perhaps a different approach might be needed in the circumstances we find ourselves?

The circumstances, and you allude to several in your post are this. Our seedcorn is no longer being consumed, it has been consumed, and for some decades now. Again, all the digits lying in mattresses/accounts/central banks around the world will be looking for a rendered payment sometime in the future. This is certain. If you're relying on these digits for future value. I don't think you'll be pleased with the outcome. What percentage you hold is your business, but to compare the physical metal with trading paper. I believe there is no comparison for long-term value.

A one strategy approach would seem rather naieve. Even to state so, I find suspicious, but a core built from the strategy thoughtfully outlined on these pages since the beginning will benefit the holder well. What you do with the rest, and this I think most all agree with, "is your business", but I would be rather cautious in exactly allocations you are considering. Again, as you have outlined in your post. These are dangerous times, and prudence with your investment capital should be considered thoughtfully.



Best,

The CoinGuy

For typos, it seems as though you can read these posts over a half dozen times, but without a secretary at hand. A few still escape.

Smile,

TCG

http://www.galmarley.com/framesets/fs_monetary_history_faqs.htm....
"By 1671 the system was hardly benefiting the king at all because redemptions were consuming all the cash subsequent issues could raise. He had sucked in all the private money he was going to get, so when at the year's end he demanded still more vital cash for his navy the bankers couldn't get it - at any price.

"Annoyed, Charles conveniently remembered that the bulk of the loans which he had recently taken out had been at rates above the 6% limit permitted by his own usury laws. He declared the debts illegal and his own exchequer's payments stopped. This temporary action was enacted on 2nd January 1672, was extended after one year for another two, and after those two (subject to a few carefully chosen exceptions) it became indefinite.

"The effect - often repeated since - was that those who lent to the state turned out to have accidentally provided all their carefully accumulated personal wealth as voluntary taxes. The goldsmiths were blamed. They were caricatured as greedy opportunists and damned by their once enthusiastic depositors. Eleven of the biggest 14 failed, leaving their chiefs variously (i) ruined, (ii) bankrupted (iii) on the run (iv) jailed or (v) dead.

"The humble wooden stick never regained any credibility. It was doomed to lose out to its close cousin - paper.

I notice that we are having another silly oil spill today ......and
that Gold doesnt' seem to be paying much heed to it ....

and the Canadian Loonie doesn't seem to be paying much heed to it ...

and the Euro doesn't seem to be paying much heed to it .....

and by the state of it's recovering ......Oil itself isn't paying much attention to it .............


Oil has already discounted this and several other spills and seems be moving higher.

Heard an interesting statistic over the weekend.......

that has no exceptions......

THE INCUMBent President has never survived an election preceeded by an October in which the Market INdexes fell .5 Percent or more................

I would like to bet on that statistic but have no local venue to do it in ......

Martin Wiess believes because of his study / research (in several states of preelection shenanigans and the failure of our officials to fix the Voting problems of 2000, that we may be in for several weeks of uncertainty/ not knowing who won the election ........

If this becomes the case.. after 2-3 days after Nov 2, he says that the uncertainty caused in many of the markets discussed here will become subject to fireworks becoming A JULY 4th CELEBRATION...............I CONCUR

THE REASON THIS IS HAPPENING is that the idea of GOV'T that is "OF THE PEOPLE , BY THE PEOPLE , and FOR THE PEOPLE" ( THIS IS A TERM THAT I PASSIONATELY REFER TO AS CONSTITUTIONAL FREEDOM ....FREEDOM'S DREAM PAID FOR BY THE BLOOD OF TRUE PATRIOTS: PATRIOT CONSTITUTIONAL FREEDOM'S DREAM ) is a "BIG JOKE " in the minds and hearts of the people that are our elected representatives in WASHINGTON........THE NEW ARISTOCRACY.............who will bend over at the whiff of or on the turn of a dime......

I HAVE AN ANSWER FOR ALL OF THEM , EVERY LAST ONE...........

IT IS A SIMPLE FOUR LETTER WORD NEXT!!!!!!!!!!
and the qualifier "YOU ARE FIRED"....

THE CONSTITUTION is not for sale

not to corporate vested interests,
not to the military industrial complex..
not to International Business Hijackers...
not to LOBBYISTS.......(that's the politically correct term for the EVIL OF BRIBERY)
NOT to SOCIAL /BANKING ENGINEERING THINK TANK ELITIST
GROUPS...........
NOT TO SLICK TALKING CON MEN HUCKSTERS

NOT AT ANY PRICE ..............
NOT NOW ,,,,,,,,,,,,
NOT EVER..............

I say let freedom RING!!!!!!
and keep ringing ..........!!!!!!!
and LET US NEVER USE THE PRINCIPLE OF FREEDOM
to PROMOTE a RUSE ..........or RUN A SCAM on the
AMERICAN PEOPLE OR the GLOBAL COMMUNITY ........

to preserve the status quo when relying on a 200 year legacy of innovation will serve us just as well to move us out onto the ever broadening new FRONTIER........
THERE ARE PLENTY OF FRONTIERSMEN STILL IN AMERICA....
GIVE THEM THE FUEL AND WATCH THEM BURN A PATH INTO THE FUTURE UNPARALLELED by prior American GENERATIONS'INNOVATION AND INGENUITY.

I LOVE THIS COUNTRY ...........
WE shouldn't allow parasites to try to BOARD HER....\
It's time for America to recieve a STRONG DOSE OF ANTI PARASITE MEDICINE..............

http://www.abcs-of-gold-investing.com/

Next scheduled meeting of the policy-setting FOMC is November 10th to determine the official rate of ease for new money creation.

In an important contrast, a spokesman for Mother Nature said no meeting would be held to review new prospects for gold policy as it has already been set in stone. Literally.

When it's the future value of your savings that's at stake, choose gold.

R.

Your words here from post 125982...

"In one quick breath he says he doesn't recommend the futures game, but why does he continue to put forth the great effort to selectively cheerlead for paperGold and nullify the fundamental physicalGold discussions put forth by the more fully informed Gold advocates among us?"

I can fully understand your confusion. I don't recommend futures trading as it is a highly leveraged form of investing, very risky, and not easily understood by many, as your comments always remind me. I often have to explain the most basic (enomics 101) operations (reality, whether you approve or not) of futures and options to counter or point out the market functioning falsehoods that the "buy physical only" group often use to support the buy physical only dogma. I have nothing against physical accumulation and have said so repeatedly. I think it is an excellent idea, especially silver. I own a nice little stash of the metal of the moon. Sorry, I know it's only gold that you worship. Are you now confused again? I believe one can hold physical metal for all the good reasons so often cited here AND also invest in paper markets!

However, what I had to say about paper investing refered to the discussion of "freegold" and whether or not any side bets (derivatives) have anything to do or not with this concept. As usual, you have taken out only bits and pieces of what I said and twisted them to suit your ongoing "physical only" agenda. How so? Read your words above once more. I have never advocated paper trading of any kind as a substitute for physical ownership..NEVER... yet you keep accusing me just that...trying to, as you said, "nullify the fundamental physicalGold discussions". As Reagan used to say while shaking his head..."There you go again"...condemning any opinion that does not coincide with your EITHER/OR approach to the gold market. You seem to think in simplistic terms that a person either buys physical ONLY (good goldbug) and is on your side OR buys paper ONLY (evil cabal) and is the enemy. I can only equate this to blind dogma...fanatisicm...Do you see everything in either black OR white, good OR evil? As to your theory that the paper market has for years overwhelmed the most dominent, fundamental price determinent of supply and demand..believe what you want...I consider that total lunacy. Basically, if/when enough demand arises for physical gold, the price will rise regardless of the cash initiated and cash settled side bets on that number. Did those evil soybean shorts stop (with paper derivatives) the price from more than doubling, very quickly, when last year's harvest fell short of demand?

As for anyone making a profit from paper investments, your comments of this happening were..your words..."Complete nonsense."
Really now? Nobody makes any profits? Oh, I see where you clarified that to "Guys that are capable of that are "3 in a billion". Pray tell, which three..Soros, Buffett and Gross perhaps?

Your obvious view that all paper investors are doomed addicts is quite extreme. You seem totally convinced that all of them (or 999,999,997 out of 1,000,000,000) will end up bankrupt. I'm amazed that there is anyone at all left who invests? Do you uphold the beief that all markets and all investor are evil and those who invest are likewise contaminated? What level in Dante's he## is reserved for these sinners?


Further along I came to....your words..."That's why a man of greater wisdom and less ego/pride than Rich will not lift a single finger to foist the theoretical merits of paperGold onto anyone's radar...."

Wow...See no evil, speak no evil..
Perhaps total ignorance of even the existence of the paper markets would be better for your flock. You certainly don't want them to understand how they really work, they might then question your dogma that PAPER IS EVIL. Your views remind me of religious fanaticism...blind faith...Physical only right or wrong...to the death!! Are you crossing yourself as you read these words?

Further along...your words.."Tell me, again, if the Physical market gets tight/dry, why would the jeweler-boys pay us weightless investors top dollar to have our long contracts?"

How can I simplify what I've already said so many times....Paper gets settled in cash. Initiated in cash and settled in cash. Can you not even think without thinking ONLY in terms of PHYSICAL??

And, with cash settlements Rich NEVER said that "COMEX contracts are infallible cheap alternatives to Gold" (by which I know you were refering to PHYSICAL gold). Stop making up lies!! I never said that. In fact the basis of my agrument about "freegold" IS that paper investments and physical ownership are NOT the same. One does NOT substitute for the other! Without being able to understand that EVIL paper market, I don't expect you will ever understand this concept.

And finally, I leave it up to others to decide if I'm trying to "recruit more patsies to buy into his infallible paper scheme". And then you end by calling me a "pusher" Thanks Ari...back at you Sir, in spades! I guess you really must think of me as the devil...what were your words to describe me from last year...the DARK ONE or was it the EVIL ONE or ONE FROM THE DARK SIDE?
Pray for me Aristotle, because I hope I never become as narrow minded and fanatical as you are.
Regards
Rich

http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Daily Gold Market Report has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.

---closing market excerpts----

Comex gold futures slipped slightly Monday in quiet trade, as a penchant for lingering on the sidelines ahead of Tuesday's U.S. presidential elections and softer oil prices kept bullion buyers scarce.

The most-active December contract settled $1.20 lower at $428.20 per ounce.

Dealers noted an early burst of speculative buying Monday that drove December prices to a five-day high of $431.50. However, that buying was countered by steady trade selling into the strength, which trimmed early gains....

"We had fairly light trade all day today. People have gotten themselves where they want to be in front of the election and are now going to just wait it out. I expect an even quieter day tomorrow," said Paul McLeod, a precious metals vice president at Commerzbank Securities.

A Reuters poll on Sunday showed President George W. Bush and his Democrat rival Senator John Kerry tied with 48 percent of the vote.

...with protracted legal disputes widely expected over the results of the closely fought election, few holders of gold appear set to offload the metal with any great vigor over the near term. "It seems anything is expected in this election as we're already seeing armies of lawyers ready to fight results before voting has even started." said an analyst and dealer with a U.S. investment bank.

The possibility of an oil workers' strike in Nigeria and uncertainty ahead of Tuesday's U.S. presidential election weighed on the crude market. "That's what's pulled gold back," said Charlie Nedoss, an analyst at Peak Trading Group, but gold posted a "good week last week" -- up 0.9 percent for the week and up more than 2 percent for October.

"Weakness like this is a 'buy,'" Nedoss said.

U.S. personal income and spending numbers for September, reported earlier Monday, show "once again how Americans continue to rob Peter to pay Paul by spending more than they earn," said Peter Grandich, editor of The Grandich Letter.

Meanwhile, Grandich said, "real disposal income was unchanged, suggesting that growth in the fourth quarter could be weaker than forecast."

-----(see url for access to full news, 24-hr international newswire)----

HEADLINES

Japanese banks begin distributing new yen notes -- The Peninsula - Business News

NYMEX launches Brent oil open outcry in Dublin -- Reuters.co.uk - Breaking News

New product allows South Africans to invest in bullion -- Engineering News Online - Breaking News

JP Morgan will still advise Gold Fields despite Harmony pressure -- Business Report - Company News

U.S. Consumer Spending Soars by 0.6 Percent In September -- WHDH-TV - Business

http://www.thepeninsulaqatar.com/Display_news.asp?section=Business_News⊂section=market+news&month=November2004&file=Business_News200411021489.xmlAFP TOKYO: -- Major banks said the new bills of 1,000 yen, which is worth about nine dollars, and of 5,000 yen and 10,000 yen were available yesterday at branches across Japan.

The bills, updated for the first time in roughly two decades, are more difficult to forge due to advanced features including a hologram. It is expected to take two years for the new notes to replace the old ones.

"I have heard many counterfeit bills are around. I think (the new ones) are pretty hard to copy," Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi said after visiting the central bank. "Although the economic effects (of the introduction of new bills) are uncertain, I hope this helps keep the economic recovery on track," Koizumi said.

Bank of Japan Governor Toshihiko Fukui agreed, saying he hoped the new bills "would stimulate people's minds and help build a dynamic economy".

------(from url)------

Try this for a change. Stimulate your mind with exposure to true wealth. Choose gold.

R.

Cometose.

I agree. I find it amusing that two parties that the majority of your citizens were ready to dismiss as clueless and irrelevant a mere four years ago, are suddenly "important" again - so much so that it seems everybody has strong opinions on one side or the other. Was there some news that I missed? Some new moral development?

"None save that the world's grown honest."

Yes the fate of the nation is at stake- just not in the manner portrayed by the candidates. Yes the future of the world economy is at stake - except that nothing either Man may do will now suffice to take away the cup of suffering that has been prepared for us. No peace without justice and no justice with dishonest money.

Vote Blue, Vote Red, Vote for one of the other guys if you like. Just remember to vote for yellow- (early and often!)

auta i lome!
Aure entuluva.

http://www.borsaitalia.it/fwa-cgi-bin/news.pl?id=1099347685nN01682509&tit=UPDATE%204-NYMEX%20launches%20Brent%20oil%20open%20outcry%20in%20Dublin&type=internazionali&ling=ENDUBLIN, Nov 1 (Reuters) - The New York Mercantile Exchange launched a Brent crude oil futures contract in Dublin on Monday, moving across the Atlantic to challenge London's International Petroleum Exchange.

NYMEX aims to draw business from the IPE as the established exchange cuts its trading floor hours and moves towards more electronic trading.

By the close of trade, volume reached an estimated 5,726 contracts, the NYMEX said, and the front-month January contract settled at $46.95, compared with January IPE Brent's closing price of $46.99.

NYMEX -- which runs open outcry trade in New York from 10 a.m. until 2.30 p.m. local time -- has long aspired to have its own Brent contract, used as a benchmark for trading European, Middle Eastern and West African crudes.

"To have an opportunity to launch the product in the European time zone is very important," NYMEX President James Newsome told Reuters.

Previous attempts to launch NYMEX Brent have failed, including a New York-based contract which floundered in the wake of the September 11 attacks.

-----(from url)-----

Of course!

R.

If the price of gold is totally controled by the Evil Cabal with paper derivatives, then why can't the government cabal also control (lower) the cost of oil? Or perhaps lower heating oil prices in the winter and lower gasoline prices in the summer? Yes, there is a derivatives market for these crude derivatives.

Why didn't the billions of yen that the Bank of Japan spent to buy dollars support the dollar? Perhaps, to some extent it did? I don't know. If so, how much so? For how long? What force was stronger than this intervention (manipulation)?

http://www.miningweekly.co.za/components/print.asp?id=59117South African institutional and retail investors have the opportunity to invest in gold bullion, following the listing of Absa Corporate and Merchant Bank's NewGold Gold Bullion Debentures on the JSE Securities Exchange.

The debentures are JSE-listed securities, fully backed by gold bullion, making South Africa on the third country in the world to give investors the opportunity to invest in gold bullion.

Each debenture is initially valued at 1/100 of one fine troy ounce of gold, and is issued by NewGold Issuer Limited, a public company.

Proceeds of the issue of debentures will be used to acquire gold bullion, in the form of 400-oz London Good Delivery Bars, and will be held in safe custody by Rand Refinery.

The NewGold initiative was launched by Absa and the World Gold Council... The World Gold Council also backed the launch of Gold Bullion Securities...

In just under 11 months since listing on the London Stock Exchange, Gold Bullion Securities, trading in both Australian and UK products, has resulted in 58 tons in trust...

Until now, South African investors could only invest in gold through Krugerrands, jewellery and gold shares. NewGold is attempting to change that...

"For the first time, South African investors can invest in a convenient, secure and cost-effective way in a new asset class. This gives them full exposure to the gold price, which, throughout history, has proven to be a necessary component of every portfolio..."

----(from url)---

Of course! Paperize it to the limit. The official line is ever and always to give them EXPOSURE to the gold price, but under all circumstances don't give them the gold. Same old game with new tokens and new players. YAWN.

R.

Thanks for voicing an opinion (125983). I can see that, unlike some, you can differentiate between paper investments and buying physical only.

I'm not trying to advocate or instigate anything here but thoughtful discussion.

**************

"Don't put your hope in ungodly men, or
Be a slave to what somebody else believes.
If you need somebody you can trust,
trust yourself."
----Bob Dylan

http://www.borsaitalia.it/fwa-cgi-bin/news.pl?id=1099343356nN01418465&tit=CORRECTED%20-%20NYMEX%20crude%20skids%203.2%20pct%20ahead%20of%20U.S.%20vote&type=internazionali&ling=ENNEW YORK, Nov 1 (Reuters) - NYMEX crude futures fell below $50 on Monday, hitting their lowest level in a month...

The New York Mercantile Exchange has launched a Brent crude futures trading floor in Dublin from Monday, starting from 1000 GMT.

-----(from url)-----

Of course!

R.

http://www.busrep.co.za/index.php?fSectionId=553&fArticleId=2281754BusinessReport O&A by Alide Dasnois

Among other things, Hawkins said, the task group had found that:

--Bank charges on a set of transactions (electronic fund transfers, cheques issued, cash withdrawals, ATM deposits and stop orders) were as much as five times higher at South African banks than at US banks.

--Of nine South African savings accounts examined in 2003 only one earned real interest.

Imagine a customer earning R500 a week. Each week her salary cheque is deposited into her Mzansi account. That costs her nothing. But if she has a bit of cash to deposit as well, she will have to pay up to R10.75 for each deposit.

Say she needs to withdraw money for the household shopping and a bit more for kids' shoes. Each withdrawal will cost up to R10.75 if she goes to a bank and up to R5 at an ATM.

If she wants to know her account balance it will cost her R2. If she makes a mistake and punches in the figure of R1 000 instead of R100 for her next withdrawal the penalty will be R1. So far, on her R500 weekly salary, she has paid her bank up to R35.25. And this is cheap banking?

It gets worse. If our customer miscalculates her cash needs and has to make more than five withdrawals in a month, woe to her. The banks will slap on a penalty fee of up to twice the usual transaction cost.

But our customer is grateful to have been granted a bank account at all, so instead of swearing at the teller, kicking the ATM and shredding her mini-statement (cost: up to R2), she decides to do her duty as a patriotic newly banked person and heed Trevor Manuel's exhortation to save.

She calculates that she can afford to put aside about R25 a week. On her Mzansi account this will earn her 0.25 percent in interest a year. Only when she manages to save R15 000 - in about 12 years - will she reach the giddy heights of 2.25 percent interest a year. With inflation at about 3.7 percent she'll be losing money faster than you can say "Saswitch".

------(from article at url)-----

This article is helpful as a study of contrast. To put the value of gold in perspective from the vantage point of a non-U.S. wage earner, the twelve-year savings figure of R15,000 would, at current prices, buy only 5.7 ounces of gold.

From our perspective, however, that same 5.7 ounces in precious hard-won savings can be had for the easy price of scraping up $2,500 -- something any teenager flipping burgers could do in a year with a little focus.

As decades-old globalizing trends continue to bring nations ever closer together, the wildly disproportionate purchasing power parities of a universal ounce of gold will align at the higher precious values of the spectrum at play in the world today. And with a nod to growth in the benefits of such an item with inherent universal utility, perhaps alignment should be expected at levels much much higher than anything currently seen. Time reveals all.

R.

Well there you have it, an Eye for an Eye. Today's suicide bomber in Israel was a Palestinian teenager who dropped out of school to avenge has father who was killed by the Israelis. A lot of the pollsters are saying that it is the 20 something airheads who will decide the election.Maybe thats the way it should be . They are the ones that will have to live in the world. The rest of us will just have to ride off into the sunset(with our gold ,of course)

Camel, israel is leaving gaza because of a looming issue that will, in a couple years, become news, gaza strip will be out of groundwater. What is left is polluted.
Lack of water will cause a migration out of gaza. Same is forecast for paledtinian parts of the west bank.
In some parts of the world looming lack of water is going to undermine the economies. Speaking of liquid,
So many problems are looming, that I bet central bankers are going out for a drink.

Never would have thought it was simple politics that drew me in, lo, these 8 months of lurking. You may have it right, Dollar Bill. There is little remediation available for the water issue in Gaza, not less the cavalier (brigand?) attitude of the 'players' in Gaza...sad that, really, but hence all of us, and more rapidly should we decline to gird ourselves 'gainst the coming storm.

Desalination, alignment with EU-courting Turkey for it's water sources, channeling of immense violent terrorist resources towards rationalization of water use in the Strip: - All these are viable, though unfortunately unlikely choices to be made by the 'body politic', Gaza.

Meantime, Israel's motives, (or if I may, Sharon, IMF-Council of Foreign Relations votive) in rendering Gaza Judenrein remain to me a mystery...for surely no practical tactical or even strategic argumentation has proved convincing in my view.

Sorry to enter in, on so mundane a level. On a cheerier note, I'm a tiny holder, much less than a 'small holder'. I own a Kilogram of Gold (only), and have questions, and more so after reading here many months. I wish to address them but about the Oligarchy that Rules Israel I have little to say here. I Love the Land of Israel, and believe it's rescue would be declaring tax-free and a Gold-Backed Shekel. Simple, and Clear. And positioned as Israel is, poised between the purposes of East and West, perhaps significant.

NOT, goes without saying, with the Democratic Despots that presently hold sway. My 2 cents.

Anyway, here's Question #1.

And please consider practical ramifications.

While I'm grateful, hand trembling on the box key as I watched the plunge and neck wrenching ride since last February, that my holding was simply a block of inert "all or nothing", in the longer term, should I incline towards converting this to 10 ounce bullion, say three, and a couple of ounces? I'm thinking...this is yes, "nest egg" and real, but am I trapped here due transport considerations cross-border? (in Canada?) Time comes I may need to change my "Wealth" to a piece of a property...even here, yes. But what if that place is 'abroad'?

What form/size of gold is most flexible for conversion to temporarily favourable currency in a time of crisis? For a mobile individual. Guidance? Opinions?

Answers will guide my future 'wished for' purchases. I'm bitten, Tiburon that I am, quite bad by the 'Goldbug'...

Tiburon (11/01/04; 23:02:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 126007)
Newbie Stuff
===
"WELCOME" and may I also say, "GOOD Question !"
Let us think outloud about this !
You made your initial purchase of YELLOW as a one KILO bar at the peak price time in Feb. '04 !
WHY, would you consider "breaking" the bar up into smaller purchase items ?
You have a PERFECT doorstop ! <;-)
May I suggest that you contact USAGOLD and discuss ALL the possibilities, INCLUDING the requirements for transporting YELLOW out of the country, for your peace of mind !
The best way, IMHO, to stay with your "false start" (as it will always make you THINK !) is to slowly add to IT, with continued purchases of the pre '33 bullion coins (low PREMIUMS) that are not LEGAL TENDER in your present or future locale.
Others will give you more thoughts to consider.
GW

01.11 / 16:04 | National Bank: gold exchange reserves keep on growing

Astana. November 1. KAZINFORM. Comparing to the state in late October the volume of gold exchange reserves of the country has increased by 44 percent up to USD 7.2 billion. This became possible due to substantial exceed of currency supply over demand. Chairman of the National Bank of Kazakhstan Anvar Saidenov informed of this today addressing the joint session of Parliament houses. This volume of gold exchange reserves reimburses about 5 months of goods and services import. According to the predictions of macroeconomic indexes for 2005 gold exchange reserves are expected to grow by 11-12 percent.
During 9 months of the current year the monetary base in Kazakhstan has increased by 27 percent (up to 400 billion KZT); monetary supply � by 25 percent (up to 1.312 billion KZT); cash volume � by 31 percent (up to 312 billion KZT). In general, by the end of the year monetary growth in the republic will amount to 25.8 percent. Analogous indexes of the previous year were 21 percent.

In 2005 the forecast growth of monetary supply by 23-24 will conform to the tempos of economic development of the country, said the banker.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The CB's of countries who have suffered monetary crises over the recent years keep on buying...

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=aCPiTMFLk3Gw&refer=usworth reading. -Caradoc

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=bondsNews&storyID=6679889One might wonder, being as they're issueing bonds....As with Paper Hedge sales they play the paper game much better than they mine Gold......YGM

Article...Reuters
Bonds News
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CORRECTED - Barrick Gold files $1 bln debt shelf
Mon Nov 1, 2004 04:08 PM ET
In WASHINGTON item headlined "Barrik Gold files $1 bln debt shelf," please read headline as ... Barrick Gold files $1 bln debt shelf ... (fixes typo).
A corrected repetition follows:

WASHINGTON, Nov 1 (Reuters) - Gold producer Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX.TO: Quote, Profile, Research) (HCX.TO: Quote, Profile, Research) on Monday said it plans to periodically sell up to $1 billion in debt securities.

In a registration statement filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, the Toronto-based company said it plans to use proceeds for debt repayment, investments in subsidiaries, capital spending and other general corporate purposes.

Under a shelf registration, a company may sell securities in one or more separate offerings with the size, price and terms to be determined at the time of sale.


� Reuters 2004. All Rights Reserved.

$6 plus drop today. Hardly unexpected.

Despite no pressure from the overnight market in fed funds, trading in line with current FOMC policy targets, the Trading Desk for the Federal Reserve today nonetheless intervened in the open market, buying outright U.S. Treasuries maturing from February 2007 to February 2008 with $1.203 billion in fresh money created expressly for this event. It is through these effortless keystroke maneuvers that the Fed may simulaneously puff up the money supply with new cash reserves for the banking system, and also provide props for the bond market -- this time targeting the yield curve 2-3 years out.

There is no limit how deep the drifts can grow, nor how thin the dollar's residual value can be stretched thereby. Choose gold.

R.

The weekly consolidated financial statement of the Eurosystem released today shows once again that on the week portfolio transactions have more greatly trimmed the foreign currency position of international reserves. Gold reserves under terms of the renewed central bank agreement on gold (effective from September 27, 2004) were trimmed by EUR 17 million (1.6 tonne) to EUR 130.581 billion whereas the net position in foreign currency fell by 100 million to EUR 167.6 billion, narrowing the distance between the two bit by bit.

R.

but not in measured cadence.

Gold closed down just over $7 for the day, which is about 1.7%. During the same time the dollar rose about .6, which is about .7%.

So gold has overreacted for whatever reason (bull trap, central bank manipulation, election manipulation, etc.). The implication is however that either the dollar will follow another percent or so to justify the gold drop, or the gold will bounce back up again in short order.

For the currency market has much more inertia in these times than the gold market.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/story/0,3604,1239644,00.html"The Tehran oil bourse is scheduled to open in 2005".
...Dated but interesting....

http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh22679_2004-11-02_18-54-46_n02466348_newsmlHEADLINE: Argentina debt offer sweeter, but still bitter

BUENOS AIRES, Argentina, Nov 2 (Reuters) - Argentina's private creditors were predictably angry Tuesday over the government's final offer to pay back a fraction of $100 billion debt in default for three years, but analysts and markets saw hope for the world's biggest ever debt restructuring.

Economy Minister Roberto Lavagna unveiled details late Monday for the issue of up to $41.8 billion in new bonds in exchange for old debt....

Nowhere was the frustration more patent than in Italy, where more than 15 percent of the defaulted debt rots mostly in pensioners' retirement portfolios.

...maturities run up to 40 years and investors still face losing 70 percent of their money, a record for modern-day sovereign restructurings.

"I would be willing to accept a 75 per cent payback as a form of solidarity with the people of Argentina," said Italian Rodolfo Tabacchi, 68, who invested almost all his retirement bonus, or 100,000 euros, in Argentine debt before South America's economy collapsed and defaulted in January 2002.

Far from the emotional side of the story in Italy, number crunchers on Wall Street produced somewhat more optimistic opinions about the final offer, built on an initial proposal in Dubai in 2003 and modifications in June.

----(from url)----

Meanwhile, as creditors gnash teeth, the country has boosted its own official gold holdings by over 50 tonnes. Creditors would have been better served had they, too, gone that route. The choice is clear. Choose gold.

R.

http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Daily Gold Market Report has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.

---closing market excerpts----

Comex gold futures plunged more than $7, or over 1.7%, Tuesday on speculative profit taking spurred by pre-placed stop-loss sell orders and the slightly firmer U.S. dollar ahead of the U.S. presidential election results.

The most-active December contract (100 ounces each) settled $7.40 lower at $420.80.

December prices started $1.70 lower at $426.50 on light fund profit taking as the U.S. went to the polls. However, this selling pressure took place amid a scarce buyer environment, which kept prices on the back foot through the morning.

Pre-placed automatic sell orders then added fuel to the descent by generating surges in sales volumes as prices stepped lower.

As a result, trading volumes ballooned as the session progressed, jumping from an estimated 13,000 lots at 10 a.m. EST to over 75,000 lots, or 7.5 million "ounces", just three hours later.

By the end of the session, 100,000 futures contracts and 30,000 options traded hands.


...Brien Lundin, editor of Gold Newslettersaid a Kerry victory, in the long term, would be bearish for "any investment sector that has enjoyed significant gains over the past year or more."

Kerry has promised to roll back Bush's tax cuts dramatically, and the very favorable long-term capital gains tax rate would appear to be a prime target under his administration, he explained.

"Investors holding sizeable long-term gains on paper would want to realize those gains -- in other words, sell -- rather than place them at the risk of potentially higher tax rates," he said.

And "if Bush wins, the picture is ... not so clear, but most feel rates will stay flat to lower -- this will be negative the dollar and supportive of gold," Charles Nedoss, analyst at Peak Trading Group said.

Lundin believes a Bush victory would be bullish for gold and mining stocks over the long term, "because of the favorable tax regime that encourages investment."

In addition, "a post-election Bush administration would feel less pressure to keep gold and other commodity prices in check," he said.

-----(see url for access to full news, 24-hr international newswire)---

http://www.newratings.com/analyst_news/article_503696.htmlsnip: The gold reserves of China, Venezuela and Argentina have increased during the two-year period, while Switzerland, Portugal, United Kingdom, Canada, Netherlands and Greece have sold off a part of their holdings, the analyst adds (end snip)

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/low/world/middle_east/3975737.stmThe veteran ruler of the United Arab Emirates, Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan al-Nahyan of Abu Dhabi, has died. [link]

"On May 23rd and for four glorious days,
the much anticipated third entry of His Highness
Shaikh Zayed Bin Sultan Al-Nahyan,
ruler of the Arab Emirate
was revealed to 170,000 enthusiastic fans
at the Chelsea Flower Show 2000.
Winner of two previous gold medals
with The Room of Life
and The Garden of the Book of Gold,
The Garden Of The Night,
completes the trilogy."

Abou Ben Adhem (may his tribe increase!)
Awoke one night from a deep dream of peace,
And saw, within the moonlight in his room,
Making it rich, and like a lily in bloom,
An angel writing in a book of gold:�
Exceeding peace had made Ben Adhem bold,
And to the presence in the room he said,
�What writest thou?��The vision rais'd its head,
And with a look made of all sweet accord,
Answer'd, �The names of those who love the Lord.�
�And is mine one?� said Abou. �Nay, not so,�
Replied the angel. Abou spoke more low,
But cheerly still; and said, �I pray thee, then,
Write me as one that loves his fellow men.�
The angel wrote, and vanish'd. The next night
It came again with a great wakening light,
And show'd the names whom love of God had blest,
And lo! Ben Adhem's name led all the rest.

James Leigh Hunt (1784-1859)

http://nation.ittefaq.com/artman/publish/article_13574.shtmlHEADLINE: 100 tolas of gold looted, Mob lynches 4 in city

(Nov 2, 2004) -- Four alleged dacoits were lynched by angry mob at Charaspur area under Hazaribagh police station in the city yesterday when they were trying to flee with the booty...

Police rescued three other members of the gang, grievously injured in the mob beating...

....a gang of dacoits numbering about nine stormed into the house of one Shamsul Haque in the area at about 7:00am and looted valuables, including 80 tolas of gold...

The gang entered the house of the businessman introducing themselves as members of a law enforcement agency and inquired about his son. But after entering the house, they tied up all the family members and looted the valuables at gunpoint.

The gang also beat up Minara Begum, wife of Shamsul Haque, as she raised the alarm.

The same gang entered another nearby house of Fazlul Haque and looted 10 to 15 tolas of gold.

As the news of the dacoity quickly spread in the area, local people gathered in the area and chased them.

Hundreds of local people encircled the dacoits in their broken down runaway trawler and caught at least seven of them. The angry mob gave them a good beating in which the four of them died on the spot.

-----(from url)----

Two points to make.

#1) It's better to buy your gold than to try to steal it from good people.

#2) Note the common occurance of gold savings in these Bangladesh households... as natural as having clothes and furniture.

R.

http://www.columbiatribune.com/2004/Nov/20041102Busi012.aspHEADLINE: Bin Laden pledges to bankrupt U.S. economy

CAIRO, Egypt (AP) - Osama bin Laden vowed to bleed America to bankruptcy, according to a full transcript of unaired portions of a videotape released yesterday...

Bin Laden boasted that for every $1 al-Qaida has spent on terrorist strikes, it has cost the United States $1 million in economic fallout and military spending, including emergency funding for Iraq and Afghanistan.

Bin Laden dwelled on al-Qaida's economic strategy against the United States, according to the complete transcript of the 18-minute video that aired on Al-Jazeera and was obtained by U.S. intelligence.

The terror mastermind whose al-Qaida network carried out the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks credited the religiously inspired Arab volunteers whom he fought with against the Soviets in Afghanistan with having "bled Russia for 10 years, until it went bankrupt and was forced to withdraw in defeat." He suggested the same strategy would work against the United States.

"So we are continuing this policy in bleeding America to the point of bankruptcy," a calm and forceful bin Laden said...

-----(from url)-----

Just as the old mockery applies about not showing up to a gunfight with only a knife, don't find yourself caught in an economic battle without the solid armor and weaponry of gold to see you shining safely through the wrack. Think of gold ownership as your civil and civic duty so that, at a minimum, you shall not become an economic casualty to further burden your fellow troops.

R.

http://www.boston.com/business/articles/2004/11/02/treasury_says_it_must_borrow_record_147b_next_quarter/ It's still growing. It's amazing. Is there no end?

Spot market definition:
A market in which commodities, such as grain, gold, crude oil, or RAM chips, are bought and sold for cash and delivered immediately. also called cash market.

Question; Who sets and reports the "spot" price of gold during US trading hours and how do they establish the price? Comex is for futures and options only, isn't it? I would think that physical dealers would quote the spot price but do they just use the near term paper contracts as a base?

My reason for asking is that the spot market in the US is small and fractured compared to the futures market. Do you think the tail (futures) is wagging my poor dog Spot? Do you think that some futures players have spurious motives for selling gold at prices where they do? Do you think they can deliver if asked? MK/CPM delivers!

BTW I'll be attending a neighbor's election night party to cheer/boo the results. I hope they don't ask me about my views I might not be invited to the next one.
Pessimistic PM promoter in Ohio

Election update: from what little I can find, mostly exit polls, it appears that Kerry is leading and the results are not quite as close as many had thought they would be. Do exit polls have much accuracy?

Hello Boilermaker. You stated...

"Do you think that some futures players have spurious motives for selling gold at prices where they do? Do you think they can deliver if asked? MK/CPM delivers!"

Spurious implies illegitimate or false. My opinion is no, but they may have other motives!

Can I ask one? Do you think that some futures
players have spurious motives for BUYING gold at prices
where they do?

I do hope that whoever wins, it is not even close enough to be contested. Then again, if it were very close and there were cries of foul and lawsuits flying, would such a situation move the POG?
rich

Your glaring interpretive error on my "nonsense" comment shows once and for all that you're a sorry if not hopeless figure at reading for context. I wasn't talking about profits. Have another look. *Maybe* you'll see your error. Absent that ability, there's really no way for me to to believe directing any more comments toward you wouldn't be a complete waste of time and space. Living in a child's world, where you see only what you want to see while ignoring all that you don't immediately understand, it doesn't surprise me that you'd try to have others dismiss my message as something from a 'fanatic' lacking your own self-assured expertise.

(Not)Rich, I sincerely hope your affliction is nothing more sinister or permanent than being too wet behind the ears and grossly naive to know any better.

Just for fun, before I sign off, let's revisit two of the rantings of this so-called dogmatic fanatic who, according to young (Counterparty)Rich, has not one bit of tolerance for paper........... how very wrong, and how very poor his memory!

First this one. Look for the *******highlighted******** sentiment that's openly and starkly at odds with the fanatical caricature portrait that (IOU)Rich tries to paint of me.


Aristotle (5/13/02; 12:37:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 75556)
The (Personal) Gold Standard revisited

In this representative democratic republic system of ours, we each have (most notably) four votes apiece to change the world more to our liking. Actually, we have those votes, and also the persuasive powers of our convictions to lobby our leaders for change. The sad truth is that we remain a tiny voice lost in a wide crowd. So where do we turn to improve the quality of our personal experience and interactions with the world at large?

As near as I can tell, the primary appeal among some of us for a return to a Gold Standard is for the integrity it would bring to our monetary system. At least that seems to be the prevailing perception, anyway. (A false one, but that's the topic of previous post.)

The truth of the matter is that if we pause to consider the monetary system as a whole, we quickly realize that it's far more complex and runs far deeper than the superficial quality of the coins that happen to be jingling in our pockets. Given the nature of the system, money (and its integrity) can be no better than the commercial integrity of our banking institutions against a political backstop that has the wherewithal to change the rules smack in the middle of the game.

As we've seen in real life, the form of our currency may be Gold one day, then cupro-nickel the next. You may vote and lobby to the end of your days, and if you live to be a thousand this won't change a thing.

So what's the next best thing? Get on with your life!!! Take a good look around, make the most of the situation at hand, and apply your energies where they might have meaning. Ply your trade and be a success. After all, the nature of your money is secondary to your real concerns. Or it certainly should be.

Sure, sure, the integrity of the Monetary System is very important to all of us. After all, it plays an important role in facilitating the human business of, well... BUSINESS! We try to organize our lives and our operations so that we can plan ahead and reasonably know that our future will be secure. In business, we do that through the wonderful invention of contracts. Contracts to build, contracts to buy, contracts to borrow, and any variation you can imagine. Our development of the Monetary System grew out of our human desire to plan forward. For future security.

A huge *huge* HUGE mistake that many people make, however, is in somehow confusing their personal security with the integrity and fate of the money they use. Note that I said only "money" and not "Monetary System." To be sure, our personal security is very much intertwined with the Monetary System because it forms the backbone of our network of contracts. But that's independent of the monetary unit itself. The System can thrive, and the human business of business can thrive, even as the money within the system suffers a well-recognized long slow sliding death by inflation.

Let me put this as simply as I can.

If your physical or emotional well-being depends upon the fate and integrity of your monetary unit, then something is seriously out of balance. You have placed way too much of your own life's future security on a throw of the dice.

Understand this: the integrity of the Monetary System is more important than the Money itself. As a result, (and we've seen this constantly occur in our real lives,) the value and nature of our currency will always be sacrificed as necessary to save the integrity of the System. Gold one day, paper the next. We can do nothing to change this, nor should we really care if we don't allow ourselves to be overly exposed to the effects of a diminishing (some would say "dishonest") unit of money.

So what's to be done? Readjust your position! Money is merely the ethereal middle-ground of contracts, and in our quest for security, this is no place to live! Put yourself on a Personal Gold Standard. Carry from month to month or quarter to quarter no greater quantity of money than you reasonably expect you'll need. ************Take your paycheck, earnings, income, whatever; drop it in your checking account, pay your bills, contemplate an attractive investment or two, buy some new patio furniture, and roll the purchasing power represented by any leftover money into Gold.*************

In the end, you'll find that even though you must chart a course through a life surrounded by "dishonest" ever-failing money, you can take comfort that your actual savings are "honest" and secure, come what may. And that's all you really wanted all along, right? Security.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle


Finally, this one.


Aristotle (6/14/04; 02:21:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 122069)
eggs and baskets
I reckon the guiding wisdom of eggs in baskets depends mostly upon the mission of the courier.

I don't see it so much as an issue of percentage of all or none or somewhere in between. Let me elaborate.

Back in the day, when I had occasion to assist (meaning observe) my dear grandmother in the baking of delicious pies and breads, and if it was discovered that more eggs were needed complete the job, I'd be sent to the hen house with, drumroll please... yes, a basket.

I assure you, much more important than the issue of whether or not I put *ALL* of the eggs in that *ONE* basket, was the issue of whether or not I arrived back to the kitchen with eggs, yes, REAL EGGS in that basket.

Dear grandmother never once interrogated me on the finer detail of the actual percentage of eggs that I delivered from their previous hen owners. The thing that determined whether or not we'd be enjoying our cake later that day was whether or not I had indeed gathered Eggs.

I'd have been a perfect fool in the errand had I taken the so-called "investment" route and filled my egg-basket with a diversified portfolio of egg-producer shares (some feathers) or even a wholly-owned egg producer (a hen) or egg futures (some baby chicks or a bag of feed) or some sort of paper eggs.

But if you want to bake a cake, you definitely need Real Eggs to crack; and if you want to build meaningful savings, you definitely need Real Gold.

Every "courier" needs to understand his objective, and within that context, perhaps it is *is* IS entirely appropriate to have in his basket Eggs, and nothing but Eggs.

************As I've said previously, for me, I think converting my earnings excesses into 100% Physical Gold savings is the perfect balance to my 100% DOLLAR-denominated incomes. Seen that way, I don't think anyone could accuse me of having ALL of my eggs in one basket, but OH how they do envy me my basket.*********

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle


What more can I say? Can't have too much of a *truly* good thing...

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

Good evening Sir, your words...


".....there's really no way for me to to believe directing any more comments toward you wouldn't be a complete waste of time and space."

I agree......question is..of whose time.(g)
rich

i don't like it, it's too quiet! fire a flare!

I think Gandy let the fire go out in the great hall...He's busy watching to see if Hanoi John or GW wins and what effect it may have on his Golden booty.....YGM.

it's bad news for the Enron crooks! They'll have to wait another four years for their pardons!

Any more results?
Ohio? And?

http://www.iranmania.com/News/ArticleView/Default.asp?NewsCode=26672&NewsKind=Business%20%26%20EconomySnip: LONDON, Nov 3 (IranMania) - Despite the insistence of the Central Bank of Iran (CBI) that the export of should be conducted with its authorization, a senior Ministry of Industries and Mines official stressed on Tuesday that the government has already liberalized gold trade�..

"The CBI should not have created any obstacles to the export of gold in the first place," he said, adding that at present, there is no difference between the export of gold and iron ore�.

Gold exploration projects are highly economical in Iran, which is the reason why British and Canadian companies are involved in such projects in the country. (end snip)

Off to the monestary now big fella! Don't forget your Gold!

Mr. U. S. Dollar seems to be ruminating on four more years of war, trade deficits, and deficit spending, while drinking tomato juice to mitigate the effect of last night's party.

The dollar has now dropped nigh to last week's low, while gold is about $6 off last week's high.

Tiburon, Greetings and glad you have started typeing.
You said;
"I Love the Land of Israel, and believe it's rescue would be declaring tax-free and a Gold-Backed Shekel. Simple, and Clear."
I wondered, when Sharon a couple years ago said in a frustrated response to some UN vote I believe, that "Isreal is now on its own." He did not say it in a sad way, but in a way that made me think they did have some financial plan for that if it came to that.
Well, not a day went by before Bush and other US govt. folks said that Israel is not alone, ect.
I thought the quick response was not just diplomatic, but financial. There are Jewish men strewn throughout the financial system of the world. They have not forgotten the holocost, which happened rather recently actually. 50 years is hardly a generation.
If Israel did have to go it alone, they could probably do quite a bit. If the dollar-US turned against them, and pushed them into a wall, couldnt the Jewish men of the world take thier companies offshore? From around the globe they could strongly argue to thier business partners in whatever field, to do business in ways that whomever the state of Isreal decided to support as reserve currency, it would be a mighty force that they could bring to that currency.
If they needed, they could form a currency alliance with a few asian countries, perhaps? I think thier strength is financially far greater than just what looking at the books of Israel would reveal.
Not that Jewish men are all in lock step with each other at this time, no they are not, but if the state of Israel survival financially required them to really bond together and do something major and dramatic and try to change the financial world, they would do it.
Just guessing.
I still think gold has a good future. It might have come sooner if kerry got in there, but I did not vote for that.
I am content to wait till the global economy fails for econoomic reasons without having to watch the show of the UN controlling the reserve currency in the meantime.
Maybe next time they go for a global fiat system, after the first time failure gives us a chance to do it in a smarter way. Greenspans attempt to form the global economic system during his watch is too much an effort done -on the fly- because they dont see any option but typical fiat collapse if they dont.
But, starting from the ashes of the first attempt, more voices can help construct it next time, and it can be done in a way that doesnt savage the local economy of so many countries.
Am I wrong when I guess that alcohol usage rears its head on the forum sometimes? Moderation.

YGM (11/2/04; 22:35:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 126029)
I think Gandy let the fire go out in the great hall...
===
YES, Sir YGM, I was very busy getting all the Hobbits to vote !
I shall restart the FIRE in the GREAT HALL and relax now !
<;-)

Coiled spring is indeed the phrase. I wonder how quickly cracks will appear in the optimistic facade created for the election. W may have won re-election, but I get the feeling that it will turn out to be a pyrrhic victory. That's not my being partisan - I would have said the same if it had gone the other way.

C!

http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html

http://www.usagold.com/cpm/goldhelp.html

Q. I've noticed that USAGOLD / Centennial stresses education more than most of your competitors. Why is that?

MK. For years, we have emphasized "We educate first-time investors" in our advertising. We believe education to be the key to successful gold ownership. To make a long story short, we tend to keep our clientele as they become better educated, while many of our competitors tend to lose their clientele once they become educated. It shows in the type of services we consider important to complement our sales and delivery programs.

Q. What are some of the criteria a prospective investor should look for in a gold firm?

MK. Credibility, longevity, pricing, service and compatibility -- all come into the mix. Of those I rate credibility and its sister virtues -- reliability and reputability -- the most important. Too many of the national firms have brokers who were selling condos at the beach or automobiles a month ago and now suddenly they've become "gold experts" selling leverage schemes, $50,000 rare coins, reproduction medallions at 25 times their gold content, or overpriced silver investments. Most sophisticated gold investors would probably like to avoid that sort of thing.

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/041103/law065_1.htmlMore proof that paper gold (here in the form of a mining stock) is prone to more risk than physical. While the share price has been waning for some weeks, it dropped from yesterday's $2.88 close to a low of $1.11 today. Ouch ! Why ? For some reason, the folk in Montana don't like the idea of sloshing about large quantities of cyanide in the leaching process, and passed a ballot initiative to say so.

C!

http://charts-d.quote.com:443/1002980432830?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=DX00Y∬erval=10&Ht=600&Wd=800&Display=2&Study=MA&Param1=13&Param2=0&Param3=&FontSize=10Get your YELLOW and "lock-in" your security !
<;-)

http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh44368_2004-11-03_15-37-57_nat001093_newsmlNEW YORK, Nov 3 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve said on Wednesday it was adding permanent reserves to the banking system by buying Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS).

The Fed said it was buying maturities ranging from Jan. 15, 2007 to April 15, 2032. There were no exclusions.

Earlier, the Fed added $3.25 billion in temporary reserves to the banking system through overnight system repurchase agreements.

Fed funds last traded at 1.75 percent, the Fed's current target for the rate.

------(from article at url)-----

The size of the Fed's outright TIPS purchase was $421 million. The $3.25 billion overnight injection of temporary cash was provided sub-FOMC, at 1.725 percent.

Money is easy. Choose gold.

On the election, the argument _could_ have been made that gold should sell off as a result of the political "certainty" accompanying the reelection of the incumbant administration. However, with the resumption in rising prices today it was the correct alternate view prevailed -- that the political continuity makes a firmer argument simply for unabated continuation of gold's 4-year trend, an international ascent to a higher level of economic significance.

Continuity. The trend confidently continues, for years. (see below)

http://www.galmarley.com/ChartApp/Images/USD_Line_5years_300x150.gif

R.

Reflecting on the nature of things while making a cup of tea with the televised post-election speeches of gratitude by the winners and concessions by losers filling the background of my thought, I was suddenly struck on this day with a golden nugget of truth:


"Votes empower a politician. Voters are empowered by gold."

As you give power to others to rule your nation, keep for yourself the power to rule your own life. Choose gold.


Call USAGOLD-Centennial today to position yourself wisely to protect and build your wealth for the many years ahead.

R.

http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Daily Gold Market Report has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.

--- closing market excerpts ---

Gold futures closed Wednesday with a nearly $5-an-ounce gain as the metals market celebrated President Bush's re-election. A Republican Party victory will "continue the excessive debt creation of the federal government," said Ned Schmidt, editor of investment publication Value View Gold Report.

"The first act of new Republican Congress will be to raise the debt ceiling for the U.S.," so "in short, the mismanagement of U.S. monetary and fiscal policy will continue [and] the second term of Bush will be good to gold/silver investors," he said.

Given that, COMEX December gold futures rose to a high of $426.40 before closing at $425.40, up $4.60.

With Sen. John Kerry conceding, "the case for $500-plus gold may even be better," said Peter Grandich, editor of The Grandich Letter, an investment advisory publication.

Gold has been "underpinned" by three key factors: geopolitics, massive deficits, and a weakening U.S. dollar, he said. "All three are likely to remain in their same mode, if notactually become more prevalent."

All in all, the gold and mining equity investors "are simply relieved that the election is behind us," said Brien Lundin, editor of Gold Newsletter.

"It has grown increasingly apparent that many of the fundamental trends helping to drive gold higher -- including a falling dollar and rising commodity prices -- had been held barely in check by the administration as the election drew near," he said.

The Bush administration's "ability to hold things together was fading and, now that the election is over, they have much less motivation to even try," he said.

-----(see url for access to full news, 24-hr international newswire)----

http://fx.sauder.ubc.ca/cgi/fxplot?b=USD&c=JPY&rd=731&fd=1&fm=1&fy=2003&ld=31&lm=12&ly=2004&y=daily&q=volume&f=png&a=lin&m=0&x=I guess the Euro is taking the brunt of the present USDX slide, but look at where the Yen is versus the US$ (see link) only a little above the point earlier this year where the Japan Ministry of Finance asked their buddies over at the BOJ to fire up the printing presses and buy dollars for all they were worth. Japan's MOF have already said they will do the same again...when will it start??? What will Trichet do...how much pain can the Euro take? Will gold penetrate the $430 barrier convincingly this time? Where is Batman? (Does he have a Y or an E instead of a Bat on his cloak?)

Don't miss the next exciting episode....

;-)

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/3970855.stmSnip.

"China has signed an agreement to buy oil and gas from Iran and to develop Iran's Yadavaran oil field, according to state media from both countries.
The deal was signed in Beijing by Iranian oil minister Bijan Zanganeh and Ma Kai, head of China's National Development and Reform Commission.

China, which has longstanding ties with Iran, is searching for new energy reserves to drive its booming economy.

The agreement will be carried out by Chinese oil company Sinopec."

Druid: More signs along the trail. Iran foraging some interesting business relationships these days.

I just posted the following on the other board....when I saw Druid's China Iran post.......I had to add this post here...

Cometose (Cheney: Bushes Mandate ......) ID#139261:

( background : sound of heavy panting as in EXCITED DOG; try to imagine dooling )

To unveil warplan for the next four years .......
Invasion of Iran ( June 2005 ) .....protective occupation of Saudi Arabia....

Increased garnering of CONSTITUTIONAL LIBERTIES addressed in Constitution...

MORE ; UNBRIDLED SPENDING........

( Earlier I misestimated the power of the Democrats to garner support of the CONSERVATIVE REPUBLICAN PARTY ...and have just been informed of the DEMOCRATIC SWING TO THE REPUBLICAN PARTY based on RECKLASS OUT OF CONTROL SPENDING ONLY; Last night was the night of the living dead ...in which DEMOCRATS nationwide blindly and unconcionably voted .....for a POLITICAL UFO ....that has looked and smelled and felt for too long like a SPENDAHOLIC Democrat: clearly a case of mistaken identity wherein the MYOPIC nurser couldn't identify the owner of the HIND TIT offered for a free suck.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/3978211.stmAhhh...yes, Sir Druid, India is there too, cementing in long term gas deals. I recall Japan recently did same (in the face of US opposition). Countries have no choice but to look after their own interests.

Perhaps it's a rush by Iran (to try to safeguard itself???) to set-up lots of deals with "allies". (Didn't do Saddam much good...but things may be different this time...)

Energy...it makes EVERYTHING happen.

;-)

Iran: Maybe buying a little protection from one of the big boys so some of the "other" big boys in the area will think twice before coming in and "liberating" Irans oil fields?

http://www.chaos-onomics.com/Snip.

"It still strikes me funny whenever I research US capital inflows as one usually only does this type of research for emerging economies, or to wax less euphemistic, banana republics. Lewis Carroll and George Orwell would both have appreciated the irony of analyzing the required foreign financing of the economic superpower of the world. As world events go, it has been a very quick shift from manufacturer and financier of the world to the greatest importer and debtor. One of the key coincidental and I believe, in part, causal factors in this rapid transition, as Michael Klare argues in Blood and Oil: The Dangers and Consequences of America's Growing Petroleum Dependency (The American Empire Project), is the transition from US energy self sufficiency to US petroleum import dependency.

Admittedly, arguments to the effect that petroleum dependency is the Achilles' heel of the American economy and by extension America's role as issuer of the world's reserve currency, are not new. There is a vast difference between the abstract, at some point and under certain conditions petroleum dependency could be a problem and the effects of petroleum dependency are now eroding the value of the US$. Let's proceed from the abstract to the empirical and see if the "at some point" has become now."

@Sundeck, goldquest, Cometose


Druid: Lewis has done some excellent analyzing in suggesting that Japan might be taking a big part in financing the US' current attempt at democratizing Iraq in an attempt to obtain a flow of oil later on. This is very interesting in that I read somewhere a few weeks back that Japan either had struck a deal or was in talks with Iran about future oil needs.

Japan and many others are getting slammed by these oil prices at these levels and these prices haven't even begun to take on a lasting effect as we all know that everything that happens these days in our economy are "transitory".

Oil, the old/new inflation indicator.

http://www.stevequayle.com/News.alert/04_Money/041102.the.real.war.htmlOctober 31, 2004
Author: Jim Sinclair

The real war is not in Iraq or Afghanistan but in the currency markets.

In his article "From Russia with Love," Community friend, Dan Norcini, set up the subject matter of what is the most important but unappreciated characteristic of the gold market.

This characteristic is misunderstood by many but forgotten by even more. The Gold Dinar is coming without any doubt now that two major foundational items, which had caused a delay, are falling into place,.


Druid: There is no doubt (at least in my small brain) that FreeGold (gold which price is set outside of Comex)is on the way sooner rather then later.

The Dinar, Euro, Yuan and yes, even Ruble, appear to be setting the stage for some serious competition against the Yen and Dollar. The competition for real money and wealth, oil and gold, is starting to gain a lot of momentum. My guess is that the re-elected administration will help speed matters up if they continue to pursue their present policies.

Although not quite up there with the notoriety of a Google or Starbucks, the great scramble for oil is underway and those "value" buyers who are holding TRILLIONS of vaporizing digits will be looking to point and click there way to secure real wealth in order to have a bargaining chip for real energy. Meanwhile, the speculating and growth players will be seeking the safety of government bonds for the safety of their perceived wealth only to be disappointed when the dust settles.

We in the West are focused on faith in Money and accordingly our "controllers" deem it necessary to "hoard" real wealth in Bunkers (suceptible to pillage). Those of the Islamic mindset are driven by faith of the Heart and as such their controllers don't need to "hoard" real wealth.
On the contrary, they deem it far better to "spread the joy around" thus creating a "many with a little" untouchable hoard of collective wealth immune from wholesale pillage.
Makes sense methinks.

Dollar is looking a little sick this morning 84.48 breaking
below 84.50 the Feds must still be having their morning cup of coffee..

LIMIT UP !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/en/detail/_pages/charts/main.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1Gandalf - what'd you feed the pooches?

It would appear that the gold cabal has lost some of its zeal since the election. Four more years of capping gold doesn't look too appealing for those wishing to keep their wealth. Rats are bailing out.

"faith in money" vs "money in faith"...hmmm

I know which I would choose.

Jump spot! See spot run!

Spot capped in the first hour of trading, now running at the "de rigeur" $6 maximum rise. How tiresome .......
C!

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=$GOLD,PLTB[PA][DA][F!3!!]⪯f=GAs many said last week --- AFTER the Election in the US of A, the MANIPULATION will not be needed and the POG will head back to its TRUE direction !
---
WELL, Spot and Spike are enjoying their new FREEDOM!!!!
<;-)
---
There SHOULD be a LITTLE GREEN "B" on the GOLD P&F Chart today, at the SAME LEVEL as the LITTLE RED "4", which is the TOP of the "Cup and Saucer" HANDLE --- !!!
YES, Lady Waverider -- You are correct --
GET READY FOR "BREAKOUT" ---
TO THE MOON, ALICE !!!
<;-)

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ A "PRICE of GOLD" GUESSING CONTEST!! $$$$$$$$$$$$

We shall have a price guessing contest on the closing (Settlement price) of gold for the December Comex contract (GC4Z) on Monday, November 15, 2004, ---BUT all entries must be posted to the TableRound before Midnight on Wednesday, November 10th.

The POG Contest winner -- the closest price guess to the actual Settlement Price -- will receive a British Queen Victoria Sovereign (which may be seen at the following LINK)
http://www.usagold.com/gold/coins/BritVict.html

These coins were Minted between 1871 and 1901, are of a Fineness of 0.917, with an Actual Gold Content of 0.2354 troy ounce.

There will be also be two runners-up prizes for the next closest prognostications --- each winning an one ounce Canadian Silver Maple Leaf.
----

THE RULES -- (We MUST have RULES !!) --- PLEASE READ !!

1) The Winner is the poster with the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX (most active) December 2004 Gold Contract (GC4Z) on the date of Monday, November 15, 2004.

3) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $444.4)

4) "Guesses" shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT BOX location AND enclosed in markers of "Dollar Signs" so as to be OFFICIAL !
(Such as $$$$$$444.4 $$$$$$$ )

5) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".

6) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes MIDNIGHT (24:00) on Wednesday, November 10, 2004.

7) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY (as this part MUST accompany the Price prognostication)
--- In order for your entry to be valid, entries will need to have a paragraph or more discussing;
"Where gold is going and why". <===== NOTE !!!
---
LET the CONTEST begin !
<;-)

Today $6.5 billion was added via overnight repos priced near the FOMC target rate, and in a reasonable signal that the Committee may raise rates 25 basis points next week, the Fed also had an $8 billion dollar round of 14-day repurchase agreements, priced near the midpoint, 1.879 percent.

The unique condition of the yen notwithstanding, the world's base numeraire and reserve currency should by most accounts enjoy the lowest interest rate as a signal of its strength against all other currencies, whose various higher rates are merely an indication of their expected forward weaknesses against the standard currency of account.

Next week, however, the dollar rate shall very likely rise even with the euro rate which has held steady at 2% for a year and a half now as some analysts predict no change through to the latter half of 2005 as its real forward strength against the dollar is helping to offset the inflationary effect of rising oil ($)prices.

This is the face of the new standard. However, the Fed now must look to raise the dollar interest rate to par and beyond, (albeit as slowly as possible) for the same reason that weak banana republic currency rates rise.

Don't let the media spellbind you into thinking a higher interest rate is a sign of a stronger currency. It merely signals the greater compensation for forward depreciation against the (new) international standard. As a tool to aid your further thoughts, think gold as that strongest standard, with a "free gold" interest rate of zero percent -- undisputable king of them all.

Stake your claim today.

R.

Gold is headed up because of the inherent (and increasingly perceived) weakness of the dollar, due to the incredible debt in the US at nearly all levels: Federal, State, personal, implied (Social Security and Medicare), and hidden (through illegal accounting on the corporate level and legal but uncandid accounting on the Federal level). And due to the inevitability of the increase of that debt through increasing trade deficits, war expenditures, and social expenditures resulting from growing indigency among the population coming from loss of manufacturing and other good paying jobs.

http://www.usagold.com/gold-price.htmlAs gold may have reached the lower comfort zone of its euro trading range followed by a vault higher which was mimicked in the troubled dollar, it is not difficult to understand that can and should naturally rise in terms of all national currencies facing their own rates of depreciation. Not to mention gold experiencing a one-off, readjustment upward to make up ground for the decades it lay lost and tied in the dollar's shadow.

R.

http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh68272_2004-11-04_16-31-53_n04403004_newsmlNEW YORK, Nov 4 (Reuters) - COMEX gold futures rose sharply Thursday morning as a plunging dollar after the U.S. presidential election sparked fund buying and renewed global interest in the safe-haven metal.

The morning's peak represented the highest price for active futures since July 1988, according to Reuters charts.

Gold, often seen as a safeguard in financial markets in turbulent times, rose as traders sold the dollar on worries over the country's widening current account deficit....

A weak dollar tends to make gold more affordable for non-U.S. buyers.

The dollar came within a hair of a record low against the euro. Midmorning in New York, the euro rose to $1.2871...

"Fundamentally, the euro was strong under the Bush administration and the dollar was weak, and should still be," said one bullion trader.

-----(from url)-----

Call USAGOLD-Centennial today and discuss a diversification strategy that's right for you. Try as you might, you simply will not beat the advice and coin prices anywhere. The call is FREE and the help is always warm and friendly.

1-800-869-5115 Ext. 100

R.

http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh70846_2004-11-04_18-35-14_n03196307_newsmlsnip
WASHINGTON,, Nov 4 (Reuters) - Dallas Federal Reserve President Robert McTeer, the Fed's resident poet and self-proclaimed "lonesome dove", has quit to take up the top job at the Texas A&M University System, the bank said on Thursday.

COMEX December '04 Gold Contract (GCZ04)
Open = $429.3 HIGH = $434.0 low = $420.3
SETTLEMENT = $430.8 CHANGE +$5.4
===
AND the "KING of the HILL" today is:
Sir Zhisheng $$$$ $444.4 $$$$
(11/4/04; 10:56:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 126063)
---
The Hobbits wonder just where he got that number !
<;-)

Silver Dec '04 (SIZ4) COMEX Contract
Open $7.150 HIGH $7.490 low $7.150
SETTLEMENT $7.383 Change +$0.225
===
HI HO SILVER, AWAY !
Get that "MUD" smooth, Rich !
<;-)

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=580&e=3&u=/nm/20041104/bs_nm/retail_sales_dcRich folks living high on the hog, poor folk not so. The gap between rich and poor continues to grow. Retail sales reflect the picture.

Druid: Wow! Dow 36,000 is on it's way with $10 dollar bottled water.

I haven't read or tuned in but I would like to know if anyone knows if there was a piece of news that spurred this rally ...........in the Nas , Dow and SP... or perhaps irrational exhuberance......

Did Peace break out in the MID EAST or ...?\\

Is it the Presidents plan to do away with the IRS and
Privatize Social Security.......

Now the harder part of my inquiry which relates to the Stock Market Valuation........

ALL THINGS DO NOT REMAIN CONSTANT BUT IF THEY DID .....
and we just simply dropped the value of the Dollar by half........, wouldn't the companies be worth twice as much .......?????????? No perhaps not because their earnings are going to drop ........unless they double their NET INCOME at the bottom line........

COuld the PPT arbitrarily buy up these companies anyway , while the dollar is falling to mask the BULL MARKET ON THE WAY IN THE PRECIOUS METALS MARKETS???????....and the MINING STOCKS?????

TODAY's rally in the markets , especially the SP looks ridiculous........because we live in a contracting economy .....at a time when there is not capital investment happening by the companies themselves.....and
Insiders are selling shares in record numbers......

Looks like the same old PUMP AND DUMP to me........but if either of those other INDEXES break out ........I'm going to begin to get concerned...

I'm going to be suprised if this rally continues past tomorrow.........


Maybe uncle sammy leased all the companies represented on these indexes .....their remaining gold so they can all rise with the gold tide......

Something tells me the evidence presenting itself is temporary....

I just don't see that anything has changed substantively since the election to overturn the trend of the last 9 months of lower highs and lower lows....

I can't imagine anyone being excited enough to go on a buying spree....

Unless they are trading on inside information and GOVERNMENT PLANNED .....PROSPERITY AND PRODUCTIVITY MIRACLE .....being brewed up in ALAN GREENSPAN'S
kitchen ..........based on HEDONICS (Pleasure).

http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Daily Gold Market Report has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.

---- closing market excerpts----

Comex gold futures charged to seven-month highs and secured a contract-high close Thursday, as renewed weakness in the U.S. dollar coupled with a brightening technical, or chart, pattern rekindled speculative and investor interest.

The most-active December contract settled $5.40 higher at $430.80.

The U.S. currency dropped to nine-year lows on the U.S. Dollar Index as selling pressure resumed now that the 2004 presidential election is finished and another four years of the Bush administration is secured.

This steered investors and speculators toward dollar alternatives and safe havens such as gold, and helped spot prices pop to $433.25 an ounce, their highest level since 1988.

A bullish chart pattern also proved helpful as prices eroded congested resistance areas in the $432-$433 region to bring into view overhead targets such as the $440 and psychologically significant $450 mark.

"The dollar looks bad and gold is technically appealing, so there's definitely a bullish feel to this market at the moment," said Bernard Hunter, a director at Scotia Mocatta in Toronto. "We could certainly see more funds coming into this market and we have our eye on big numbers overhead like $440 and $450," he added.

------(see url for access to full news, 24-hr newswire)-----

"Where gold is going and why"

As I see it, short term moves in the price of Gold are really not at all predictable, and my above guess really is nothing more than a total guess.

Over the long term I do feel confident the dollar price of Gold will continue to rise, although by exactly how much and when is also not predictable in my opinion. As I see it, two fundamental factors will be responsible for the continued rise in the dollar Gold price.

First is the cold hard fact that the dollar is going to continue to loose purchasing power. I think everyone can understand that we can expect the dollar price of Gold to rise, along with the dollar price of almost everything else of real value, such as food, land, etc. simply due to loss of the dollar's real value. This is why holding physical Gold is protection against inflation.

Second I expect the perceived value of Gold, relative to most other things of real value, to increase as the people of the world continue to loose faith in the United States in general, and the dollar in particular. As wealth is moved from holding dollars to holding "something else" a part of that "something else" will be Gold which will result in an increase of the dollar Gold price above and beyond the inflation rate.

It is the above second factor that is most unpredictable, and in my opinion, will be the most important in the long run. If the wild deficit spending, and borrowing, continues then the United States just might get it's credit card pulled and the dollar price of Gold could indeed go to the moon.

Only time will tell, but if one buys and holds physical Gold for the long term, one should sleep soundly in my opinion.

DryWasher

Make that $431.0 rather than 131.0 please.

Thanks.
DryWasher.

http://www.futuresource.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=GC&o=100/DX&a=D&z=610x300&d=LOW&b=LINE&st=Gold (the Price) has dipped below the alt Currency line as it's done it's job (of lowering DX) for the present. The recent Fed hikes have successfully bulwarked a flight to Cash and DoW15000 by Q4 (Mar05) looks a no-brainer ...UNLESS of course, they rejig the System!

http://www.borsaitalia.it/fwa-cgi-bin/news.pl?id=1099605305nL04345693&tit=UPDATE%201-Germany%20slams%20gameplan%20for%20leapfrogging%20US%20economy&type=internazionali&ling=ENAn overzealous construction worker with a masonry saw cut through my main powerline. Although sparks and ozone filled the air, fortunately both man and saw came away uninjured -- if not entirely undaunted. Three hours and two electricians later the power has been restored.

Meanwhile...

HEADLINE: Germany slams gameplan for leapfrogging US economy

BRUSSELS, Nov 4 (Reuters) - German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder on Thursday slammed proposals to name and shame European countries that lag on economic reforms aimed at giving he EU the world's most competitive economy by 2010.

...he told the leaders that no government could be expected to sacrifice itself to meet unpopular EU targets.

Schroeder was equally damning about some of the ideas for kick starting reform tabled by a team of advisers led by former Dutch Prime Minister Wim Kok.

"You have to be realistic -- nobody at this table can accept targets from Brussels that lead to political suicide because there is no chance of implementation," Schroeder said, according to a government source.

That was a foretaste of the resistance the next president of the European Commission, Jose Manuel Barroso, is likely to face in his drive to get reforms back on track.

"We all know how difficult selling painful reforms can be -- but delay does not make those reforms easier," Barroso said.

...Romano Prodi, sounded more cynical after five years at the head of the EU executive.

He took as damning a view of league tables as Schroeder but said the answer was to give more power to Brussels. "The Lisbon process has demonstrated that when the Commission has power we make progress. When it does not have power and things are left to the goodwill of member states, there is no progress," Prodi told reporters.

He said the Commission had to have more teeth: "Otherwise we would be better off playing golf."

While the EU may have a common economic goal, its members were not above finger-pointing about stalled reforms.

"Compared with reforms in the old EU members, changes in the new member states are being carried out at the speed of light. In fact it is a reform frenzy compared with what is going on in the old member states," said Polish Prime Minister Marek Belka, whose country joined the EU in May along with nine others.

----(from url)----

Demand for gold wealth increases with general economic prosperity. Also, demand for solid gold wealth increases when economic conditions turn dicey.

For all economic occasions, choose gold. (Makes a handy gift, too. Be sure to add a stack of tenth ounce Maple Leaves to your next order, just in time for the holidays.)

R.

http://www.ecb.int/press/pressconf/2004/html/is041104.en.htmlFrom today's press conference on behalf of today's meeting of the governing council. When asked to reflect upon his first year on the job:

"... the Eurosystem... Delivering the currency for 306 million people, even more than in the United States, is quite a responsibility.

"And, since we have no role model, we do that in a way which has never been done before: with the ECB, the national central banks -- the full body of the team -- deciding on monetary policy here and then implementing it in the various economies. All this is extremely challenging.

"Also, the fact that we have more than 25 nationalities in this institution, where cross-fertilisation is of the essence, is something which is also very striking.

"This is history in the making: the fact that we are 12 countries today, but we know in advance that we will be many more tomorrow; the fact that we started European integration with six but now are 25.

"The lesson I draw from all that is that history moves faster, much faster than we think. We negotiated and worded the Maastricht Treaty when we were 12. The idea that we would have to implement it with 25 or 28, or even more, was not at all in our minds. We underestimated the rapidity of the historical changes.

"And I know now that the worst thing to do is to underestimate the rapidity of historical changes. You are in an institution where history is in the making. And that is, of course, very, very impressive."

-----(Q&A transcript at url)-----

R.

Trichet also offered the following in response to another question.

"We have the capacity to decide in real time. When we had the dramatic events of 9/11 in the United States, we were able that very afternoon to decide that we would pour extremely high levels of liquidity into the market in Europe to avoid a crisis. And we also decided to embark on a swap of 50 billion dollars with the Federal Reserve System in order to be able to deliver dollars in Europe to cope with possible problems of counterparties in New York. That was done in real time, on the very afternoon of the Twin Towers� collapse."

I mention it because it is instructive in regard to assessing the dynamic of the bullion banking system as a parallel to the traditional commercial banking systems. A counterparty crisis in paper obligations can often be papered over by the exceptional provision of additional paper liquidity as seen here.

Have you noticed, for example, that the open interest volume in "gold" on the New York Mecantile Exchange now stands over 300,000 contracts? Clearly, it is a market of counterparty obligations moreso than a market of physical substance and therefore can more easily be papered over in times of crisis to obscure and bridge underlying hiccups.

If accute settlement problems can be faded under a mound of liquidity as a temporary bridging tool ("fooling all people some of the time"), does it not also stand to reason that to a lesser extent underlying physical market realities could similarly be made "unfree" through a longer, ongoing process of inflating papery liqufaction of the market? That is, until such time as all confidence in the game is suddenly lost, at which time no additional amounts of paper can hide the grim truth of utter irreconcilable disconnection between counterparties.

R.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/laird103104.html
"In recent times the exchange function of money has come to overwhelm the value function.

This disparity has been greatly enhanced by the historically significant proliferation and penetration of the IT industry. The result has been the the linking of information to money in the world economy. What this has done is to greatly increase the link of money to a time value component.

All money today (except metals) are associated with time components which encode the PARTICULAR TRANSACTIONS they are used for in that time period. This is the thesis of this paper.

The effect of this greatly increased time component of money and information encoding of money is a great deal of risk to the world economy. The world economy is greatly dependent on the TIMELY settlement of not only money transactions but of the associated information. This is particularly illustrated by the amazing penetration of just in time manufacturing world wide."

Druid: A mathematician's perspective on how our point and click capabilities and has widened the disconnect between between medium of exchange and store of value for what is perceived as money. Throw in an out of control monetary tribunal that comes up with such initiatives as helicopter money and you can really see the wide gulf between store of value and medium of exchange. The monetary officials will always be behind the curve if in the event....

If you must trade paper, do it with dollars that you can watch go puff in a matter of seconds because these integrated networks have a real downside to them. Get the real metal with just a little history for longevity.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
Snippit:

The big issue moving forward will be higher government debt levels that need to be funded by savings from the rest of the world. "Bush is unambiguously bad for U.S. treasuries if he continues his policies," said John Richards, a strategist in Tokyo at Barclays Capital. "Heavy military spending policies and tax cuts at home becoming permanent mean a major expansion in the federal deficit." A second opinion came from Bill Gross of PIMCO when he commented, "We're looking at $400 billion plus (deficits) as far as the eye can see; that's a negative for the bond market." Our weakening economy and need for increased borrowing should work to lower the value of the dollar as foreign investors continue to shy away from U.S. assets. Capital inflows to the U.S. have been declining for seven months now. If the inflows continue to slow we got problems�if inflows ever become net outflows, the dollar could be wiped-out in short order.


Black Blade: The same old story as before. Meanwhile the equities markets are rising on false hopes and unreasonable expectations following a clear-cut election without the uncertainty of the last one. Even so - Gold soared as realists see the ballooning deficits and current deficits sink the USD. I had fun watching the mud-slinging and election results between the Massachussetts ketchup gigolo and the Texas oilman-cowboy (on a side note I voted for neither one). Interesting to see the division is so concentrated in "urban vs. rural" America. Still, take precautions as the euphoria wears off and the dollar tanks, holding Gold and Silver as a base for your portfolio is paramount in these uncertain times as we have had these growing deficits since the Eisenhower administration. The pyramid scheme is close to collapse as we rely on foreign borrowing of US debt. Remember - look out for "number one" and be prepared. Meanwhile the posted article is good reading.

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B115F90A7%2DFF86%2D4525%2DB11E%2DBE8954C77AB9%7D&siteid=mktw
SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Gold futures closed above $430 an ounce Thursday for the first time in seven months, with the dollar tapping new lows against its foreign rivals following President Bush's re-election.

The dollar fell to a nearly nine-month low against the euro and an eight-year low against the Swiss franc as worries about the United States' ability to finance its trade deficit resurfaced. See Currencies.

"With the U.S. presidential election out of the way and with no change at the top, the markets are once again focusing on the underlying trends, notably the potential for further dollar weakness," said William Adams, analyst at TheBullionDesk.com in London.

"With President Bush still at the helm, Middle East policy is expected to remain hawkish, and as such, high oil prices are likely to continue to be an issue," he said in a note to clients.

So "a combination of dollar weakness and potential for the weaker dollar and high oil prices to negatively impact economic growth is likely to support stronger gold prices," he said.

Gold for December delivery rose to a high of $434 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange before closing at $430.80, up $5.40 for the session. It marked the highest intraday and closing levels for futures since April 1, when the contract topped out at $436.50 and closed at $431.80.

Todd Hultman, president of Dailyfutures.com, a commodity information provider, pointed out that "while the dollar is dropping, the South African rand is increasing and that is discouraging mining activity in South Africa."

Keeping watch

Given the dollar weakness, "we would not be surprised if gold reached new highs over the coming days and weeks," said Frederic Panizzutti, a gold analyst at MKS Finance in Geneva. "The upside potential seems real." For now, the market will keep a close watch on the short-term movements in the dollar, he said. After gold futures topped the high from October, the next resistance level is "difficult to evaluate -- it is kind of long unexplored territory here and gold will likely trade erratically on its way up," he said. Renewed concern about instability in the Middle East also contributed to gold's strength, he added.


Black Blade: I still look at a "stagflation to inflation" scenario reminiscent of the 1970's-early 1980's. The Dollar has always been dropping and there are few places to run and hide. Precious metals are a good "insurance policy" and quite "cheap" as well despite temporay "giddiness" over an election and drop in WTI crude prices.

You're back!! You've been missed - please don't stay away for so long...USAGOLD forum is more important than gas drilling - yes? ;o) Cheers, and hope you're well!

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ A "PRICE of GOLD" GUESSING CONTEST!! $$$$$$$$$$$$

We shall have a price guessing contest on the closing (Settlement price) of gold for the December Comex contract (GC4Z) on Monday, November 15, 2004, ---BUT all entries must be posted to the TableRound before Midnight on Wednesday, November 10th.

The POG Contest winner -- the closest price guess to the actual Settlement Price -- will receive a British Queen Victoria Sovereign (which may be seen at the following LINK)
http://www.usagold.com/gold/coins/BritVict.html

These coins were Minted between 1871 and 1901, are of a Fineness of 0.917, with an Actual Gold Content of 0.2354 troy ounce.

There will be also be two runners-up prizes for the next closest prognostications --- each winning an one ounce Canadian Silver Maple Leaf.
----

THE RULES -- (We MUST have RULES !!) --- PLEASE READ !!

1) The Winner is the poster with the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX (most active) December 2004 Gold Contract (GC4Z) on the date of Monday, November 15, 2004.

3) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $444.4)

4) "Guesses" shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT BOX location AND enclosed in markers of "Dollar Signs" so as to be OFFICIAL !
(Such as $$$$$$444.4 $$$$$$$ )

5) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".

6) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes MIDNIGHT (24:00) on Wednesday, November 10, 2004.

7) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY (as this part MUST accompany the Price prognostication)
--- In order for your entry to be valid, entries will need to have a paragraph or more discussing;
"Where gold is going and why". <===== NOTE !!!
---

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ THE "PRICE of GOLD" GUESSING CONTEST!! $$$$$$$$$$$$

Entries as of FRIDAY 11/5/04 at just about 00:01 Denver time !!!

OFFICIAL ENTRY LISTING

Listed in order of decreasing values !
----

$$$$ $444.4 $$$$ Zhisheng (11/4/04; 10:56:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 126063)

$$$$ $431.0 $$$$ DryWasher (11/4/04; 16:13:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 126074

$$$$ $426.5 $$$$ Topaz (11/4/04; 16:13:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 126075)

===
LET the CONTEST continue !
<;-)

Not quite sure Gandalf (and Hobbits), why all the 4's in my guess. Perhaps because those little guys are on my mind and the Hobbits are subjects of 4 of Tolkien's books?
More likely though because 4 is pronounced "fear" in German, and the gold shorts must be radiating this emotion in prodigious quantities these days.

It appears that the US Government is serious about allowing the $ to drop as a way to stimulate domestic manufacturing. As long as $ drops, gold goes up. I kind of feel sorry for those folks who have not hedged their investments. Regards, R

http://charts-d.quote.com:443/1002980432830?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=DX00Y∬erval=10&Ht=600&Wd=800&Display=2&Study=MA&Param1=13&Param2=0&Param3=&FontSize=10The US$ chart should be telling everyone SOMETHING !
We GOLDHEARTS know what it is saying, BUT most all are still in the DARK (ages) !
GET YELLOW while it is STILL VERY CHEAP !
GW

http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/en/detail/_pages/charts/main_large.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1Jump, Jump, JUMP, Spot and SPIKE !
<;-)

Gold markets will continue to gain wider acceptance between central banks, investors, and increased mine production. Gains will be modest over time until the Chinese market fully matures in a number of years. Gold will continue to be a superior store of value while other investment choices will show weakness.

Just to make it official.

The Knife (11/5/04; 10:03:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 126089)
$$$$$$422.26
===
WELCOME also, and NOW you meet RULE #3 !
Note that we still do not have a Rule #2.
<;-)

The US Government continues to print greenbacks with reckless abandon, and it doesn't seem to matter which major political party is in charge. Money in this country is backed by the good faith and trust of the U.S. Government/Federal Reserve. It appears that this faith and trust is diminishing here and around the world. Therefore, gold will at least go up relative to the US dollar since it continues to be a solid form of currency since time began. Might as well trade something of diminishing value with something of increasing value. SH

Forgive me for the late conveyance of this message to you, but our Noble Wizard's dizzying charts have jarred my aging and clouded memory.

Long ago, our King charged me to bid you ready SEVERAL fine steeds, in wait along the golden road through our Kingdom, for your historic ride. There may be no rest at hand, neither by night nor by day, for many a golden fortnight, once you have commenced...

servantHeart (11/5/04; 10:26:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 126092)
$$$$431.65$$$$
===
The Hobbits have taken your NICKEL to make your entry meet the RULE #3 requirement !
<;-)

TAA TAA TAAAAAAAAAAAAA, TAA TAA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !


Entries as of FRIDAY 11/5/04 at just about 11:00 Denver time !!!

OFFICIAL ENTRY LISTING

Listed in order of decreasing values !
----

$$$$ $444.4 $$$$ Zhisheng (11/4/04; 10:56:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 126063)

$$$$ $439.6 $$$$ Rustee (11/5/04; 09:02:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 126086)

$$$$ $431.6 $$$$ servantHeart (11/5/04; 10:26:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 126092)

$$$$ $431.0 $$$$ DryWasher (11/4/04; 16:13:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 126074

$$$$ $426.5 $$$$ Topaz (11/4/04; 16:13:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 126075)

$$$$ $422.3 $$$$ The Knife (11/5/04; 10:03:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 126089)

===
<;-)
PS: Does anyone see that the majority of entries are "UNDERWATER" ?

$$$$$$456.50$$$$$$
It has to have been obvious to anyone with eyes in his/her head that PMs must go up & the dollar down.Our only way out of this trade deficit mess is thru dollar devaluation.
Clinton & Rubin got us into this predicament with NAFTA & their strong dollar policy.Hopefully GW can get us out without too much interference from the Fed.

http://www.usagold.com/gold-price.htmlWith an eye to trading ranges, gold has plenty of upward room to maneuver in terms of the euro which would not necessarily be viewed as 'overbought' by fair-minded marketeers nor as 'excessive volatility and disorderly movements' by the ECB itself in regards to operational monetary policy.

Regarding gold's room to maneuver in terms of the dollar, frankly, there is no immediate practical limitation to the upside.

Acquire your coins, confidently get on with the business of life, and acquire more as your situation and understanding of the day allows.

A toll free call to USAGOLD-Centennial makes for an AUspicously good start with excellent advice and prices on coins and bars. 1-800-869-5115

R.

http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.html

Harvest Time
Whatever it is that you may have sown,
we'll give you the power to reap GOLD.

1-800-869-5115
USAGOLD-Centennial has over three decades of experience in the field!

Why this? First of all, the momentum must step-up again sometime soon.
As TC just observed, for the umpteenth time, God bless him: "Regarding gold's room to maneuver in terms of the dollar, frankly, there is no immediate practical limitation to the upside." Well put!
In deference to past gold launch aborts though, I believe this generation "rocket" or "escape vehicle" model is engineereed with proven, state of the art, fail-safe mechanisms to gently step-up thrust in stages. Outfitted with sophisticated real-time, market feedback sensors to
A) compensate for crosswinds
B) avoid destructive resonant vibrations and
C) generally ensure a safe, comfortable ride for all passengers.

http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh90824_2004-11-05_19-57-48_l05693294_newsmlHEADLINE: Only a fast euro rise to $1.35 seen spurring ECB

FRANKFURT, Nov 5 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank has little appetite for halting the euro's climb against the dollar just yet and only very rapid moves toward $1.35 are likely to spur some action, analysts said.

ECB policymakers keep saying it is the speed of currency moves that matters, not levels.

"The ECB is not unhappy with the stronger euro," said UBS analyst Holger Fahrinkrug.

Since the United States' huge current account deficit and inflexible currencies in Asia are the driving forces, there is only so much verbal or actual intervention the ECB can deliver to halt the euro's climb against a fast-weakening dollar.

With Federal Reserve officials focusing on dollar weakness and the Bank of Japan caught up with domestic problems, market analysts doubt the Europe will get help to stem the rise.

"This leaves the ECB alone. It will need a measure of courage for them to intervene alone," although they may well have to, said Morgan Stanley currency strategist Stephen Jen.

One euro zone national central bank official said the ECB Governing Council is aware of this dilemma.

For these reasons, analysts and fund managers say they expect it will take a fast break well through $1.30 before the ECB would act, even verbally.

It took a 14 percent advance between Nov. 1, 2003 and Jan. 12, 2004 before ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said "brutal moves were not welcome." This time around such talking down of the currency hasn't even begun.

...At his press conference on Thursday, Trichet merely repeated the Group of Seven finance ministers' statements of this year that excess volatility and disorderly movements in the foreign exchange market are undesirable.

-----(see url for full article)----

As explained more fully in a post October 13th, as a politically acceptible (outside the U.S.) alternative for letting "hot money" put disruptive upward pressure on a regional or national currency, excessive flows can be naturally shunted into gold. Unique among international reserve assets, Mother Nature will not complain about the rising exchange rate for gold causing any harm to her export sector or any form of unemployment among her furry-footed or feathered citizens.

Among all international reserve assets, gold is the one natural choice. We are moving in that direction, and all will arrive at that party, some sooner (and thus more cheaply) than others.

R.

Now that the election is over and the President is no longer encumbered with the need to work towards re-election, he will be free to push his agenda to the fullest extent. Each element of his agenda costs more $$. If his tax code simplifications are revenue neutral as he as promised, his only plan for the additional revenues is for it to come from a rising economy. Even if the economy does improve, Lothar doesn't see the numbers adding up in the near term. More debt will come long before the economy improves enought to offset the cost of his agenda.

I am Lothar, of the Hill People.

http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Daily Gold Market Report has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.

---closing market excerpts----

Gold futures rose nearly 1 percent Friday, climbing above $434 an ounce to mark the metal's highest closing contract price in nearly 16 years.

Comex December gold climbed $3.50 to close at $434.30.

At 337,000, October's growth in nonfarm payrolls was the largest monthly gain since March, according to the Labor Department's data. Initially, the news sent December gold to a low of $425.50. Many traders assumed the data would make it more likely that the Fed will agree to raise interest rates at Wednesday's FOMC meeting, said John Person, president of National Futures Advisory Service.

The dollar gave back all of its post-U.S. payrolls report gain to trade marginally lower against the euro and the Japanese yen on Friday.

"With deficit spending, turmoil in the Middle East, geopolitical pressures, and ongoing threats from terrorism plus the uncertainty over inflationary pressures going into 2005, physical assets such as gold will continue to be a favorite addition to investors' portfolios,"Person said.

...The dollar's subsequent sharp descent was indeed the main source of uplift for gold through the day, but a brightening technical or chart pattern also enticed buying interest as congested resistance levels in the $432-433 region were eroded to bring major upside targets such as $440 and $450 into view.

Should the U.S. dollar remain under pressure and plumb new lows over the coming days, more upside stretches in gold are expected.

The $450 level is the major goal to the upside for both December futures and spot gold, dealers argued.

"We're looking in great shape here. To end the week this firmly and with the dollar so weak is a sign that we're not finished yet. We could easily see $450 early next week if things stay on this course," argued a dealer with a precious metals refining and trading firm....

------(see url for access to full news, 24-hr international newswire, gold price charts)-----

Why?

Hmmm .....

I could just repeat what's already written within the halls of the Gold Trail cuss those seem to be the Real Reasons without the sideshows, but it'd take way to long to do that... And why repeat what's already been so well written?

But in all actuality, it appears that's WHY!

So can I get out it that easily by just saying, Read the "Gold Trail -Thoughts!" at the link on the top of the page?
Or do the Hobbits want my own, not nearly as bright, reasons? ;)

Good to have you with us once again, at this mighty oaken table!

Long time no see.

The GAB

Ssss! We hear the call of the Wizard's horn yet again... already?? My, precious, how time flies!! We musst guess, O yess, and perhaps we'll beat the resst! (cackle)

"Where gold is going and why".

It is going... to beat any currency sysstem in the long run,

It is going... to continue to be valued as Wealth no matter what policies or laws are raised for or against It,

It is going... to continue to be the object of many evil plots and deeds by the greedy, the unscrupulous and the ssmall-minded,

It is going... into the handses, lock-boxes, safes and pocketses of those ssmart ones that sees It's Wealth-reality through the nassty tricksy swamp-mist of paper
lie-promises,

It, the metal of the Yellow Face, is going... to have It's day in the Sun once again...

....because, precious, that's what It was designed for, and that's the way It is.

S.

"Good morning and welcome aboard MTM Transworld Flight 4979. My name is Aurelius Krand and I will be your captain on this flight, with the capable assistance of my co-pilot Cary Gold. We are taking on the last of our fuel and the maintenance checks are now complete."
[rrrrhhheeeeeeeeeeeeeeee...]
"We will be departing Greenback International Airport shortly. By the way, this is a special occasion as it will be our last flight out of GIA. At this time we have turned on the Fasten Seat Belts sign. Please fasten those seat belts now and stow any loose items in the compartments under your seats."
[...eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee...]
"The weather forecast calls for possible severe weather along our course, so we may run into a little turbulence from time to time and passengers may experience a little
nervousness and queasiness which is perfectly normal."
[...eeeeeeerrRRRRRRRRHHHHH...]
"This will be a somewhat long flight and it will take time to climb to our final cruising altitude, so we encourage you to relax and take in the ever changing scenery through
the view windows on our journey to Freegold World Skyport. Attendants will be available to tend your needs and serve food and drink once we are aloft. Thank you for choosing MTM Transworld."
[...HHHRRRROAAAARRRRRRRRR!!!!....]

"oohhhh!"

"Yeah, the takeoff vertigo is awesome, eh?... You look kinda worried. This your first time flying?"

"Yeah...well... no, at least, I've never flown on MTMT. How 'bout you?"

"Well, I travel a lot, and I've tried 'em all, but the first time I tried MTMT I never went back. Been using them exclusively for almost thirty years now."

"Reeeally..... I sure hope they're better than Dollar Air. I nearly died on one of their flights after the landing gear failed."

"Which one? The crash at Bretton Woods Municipal?"

"Yeah, that's the one, and my first flight. My second was years later, on Sky Stock, and not only were they not secure - they lost my luggage - they went belly-up the
next month. Seems everywhere you turn nowadays some airline is having major problems. It's no wonder I'm nervous about flying...."

"Ouch. Heh heh... well, I can guarantee you won't crash on this one. This airline is top-notch and has an untarnished record... didn't you notice there wasn't anyone doing the usual disaster orientation? You can rest easy. Just curious, how did you end up here?"

"A friend of mine who found this gold store on the Internet - 'USAGOLD'."

"Ah, yes... of course... so you got the news and some gold and a free bonus ticket on MTMT huh? And in time. Mind if I take a look?... hey, those Uruguay 5 Pesos are sweet, I don't have any of those... (grin) welcome to the goldenaire club!"

"Thanks. What about you, do you have any gold?"

"Flying on MTMT is free but you gotta have gold in possession to fly. I've a few 400 ounce bars, some kilos, a couple dozen tubes of various bullion stuff, some nice USA 20 dollar pieces, a mess of European mintages, 18k gold chain, rings, you know, things like that... way too much for a carryon, it's all down in the cargo hold."

"WOW....And you trust them with all that?!!"

"Ab'so,lutely. That's how they got their spotless reputation."

(sigh) "Well, I sure don't feel like a goldenaire. I don't have very much."

"That's the beauty of it - you don't have to! If you have any gold at all in your hands, you're a goldenaire. When we arrive at Freegold World Skyport you'll see what I
mean... hey, look outside, we're pretty high up already......

........you know, you got lucky."

"How so?"

"This is the last flight out of Greenback International Airport."

"I heard the pilot say something about that earlier... it was a one way ticket and I'll have to get another flight back. What about it?"

"Well, this is also the last MTMT flight. Period. There won't be any more. It's the end of one travel era, and the restoration of a timeless one."

"But how will I get back home?"

(grin) "Two words, my friend... In Style!"

-------

S.

I guess I was about 10 or 11 when we went on our annual summer holidays this time up the Cariboo. I remember us pulling into Hungry Herbies at Cache Creek after 6 hours of driving up through the Fraser Canyon.
The juke box was playing Johnny Cash's Ring of Fire and Johnny Horton's North to Alaska was played as well. These early memories were my first on my discovery of gold and the early history of the gold rushes that past thru that part of the land.

"Goldenaire" ------ an instant classic.

And when you come right down to it, you really nailed the landing.....

"In Style!"

It's all about setting a good example as member in good standing of the Goldenaire Club -- the least-exclusive club on earth with access to all the privileges mankind can offer.

From one "member" to another, well done!

Gold. Get you some. --- Ari

Not to be confused with the "golden air" stuff that the RPowelish paper-peddlers try to pass off on everyong as if it were alchemisticly "Good as Gold."

Sorry boys, no privileges for you. The only parties not permitted in this most non-exclusive of clubs are counterparties.

Gold. Gets you in the door. --- Aristotle

1) This time I'm using tea leaves. Imported from, where else, China. Boiled 'em, added a little "tonic", drank the brew, swirled 'em and read 'em. The answer is 442.50. (Hope I didn't take your spot again Sir Gandalf).

2) Although I've never been a follower of TA, one must consider the numbers of people that do subscribe. Today's 16 year high should be considered a major breakout and therefore be gold positive. The problem I have with TA is that they are very good at showing, with their charts, how their "system" so accurately predicted past events. They have a little more difficulty projecting it into the future. Kind of like drawing the target after taking the shot.

3) Triple deficits do matter. The world is watching and understands this.

4) This may prove to be most important as this long term trend has been the result of a major PTB policy shift. They work slowly and surely. Washington Agreement-1 and WG-2-----Central Banks may no longer stand ready to lease gold should the price rise!!!

5) Short-medium term. Although physical gold in personal possesion provides the ultimate security, there are many that would like to allocate funds from their retirement accounts into physical. Currently, this is only possible by establishing trust accounts to hold the physical. A process which many are unwilling to take. Soon, the World Gold Council's Exchange Traded Fund will begin trading on the NYSE. It will allow many waiting and anxious new investors into the demand for physical with available funds in their retirement accounts---Able to buy and sell in a way in which they are accustomed.
Given the amount of retirement funds available, the demand may prove to be overwhelming for the spot market and could provide the stimulus to delineate the difference between the paper and physical markets. As the price for physical goes up, retail dealers will be writhing to find supply and meet demand.

Wow! As I read back over #5, is this a short-medium term prediction? Yes, it is.

My prediction is---and I know I'm putting myself on the line. When the NYSE ETF begins trading, the CBs and BBs will colloberate to supply the market (via leasing---watch the rates go down) intending to discourage the initiative. If succesful, we're toast. However, if the demand begins to overwhelm them, they will begin to defer to their WG-2 Agreement to limit their commitment.

I've read tale of the failing bank that held steady 'till it's last dollar before closing and survived the day. WG-1 and WG-2 provide an increased transparancy into their gold assets, commitments, and intentions that we're not used to. Coming from CBs, I'd take them seriously.

Wish I could go on but the misses is calling me to go to dinner.

Will pick it up again soon.

Remember: Money may sometimes be paper, shells, etc., but gold will always be money.

Well done, Oh Noble1.

I love that new word:

"colloberate" - meaning when Central Banks and Bullion Banks "collaborate" to "clobber" the price of gold..

;-)

Sprout (11/5/04; 15:19:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 126103)
---
The Hobbits say, "Ya done well, Sir Sprout !"
<;-)

Been training for the event since '71....in top condition....with the King's horses I will ride to the top of Mt. Golden....on my honor Sir.

TAA TAA TAAAAAAAAAAAAA, TAA TAA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !

Entries as of FRIDAY 11/5/04 at just about 21:10 Denver time !!!

OFFICIAL ENTRY LISTING

Listed in order of decreasing values !
----

$$$$ $575.2 $$$$ Sprout (11/5/04; 15:19:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 126103)

$$$$ $456.5 $$$$ Gene (11/5/04; 11:03:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 126096)

$$$$ $451.6 $$$$ mikal (11/5/04; 13:35:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 126099)

$$$$ $450.0 $$$$ Lothar of the Hill People (11/5/04; 14:19:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 126101)

$$$$ $444.4 $$$$ Zhisheng (11/4/04; 10:56:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 126063)

$$$$ $442.5 $$$$ Noble1 (11/5/04; 18:23:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 126110)

$$$$ $441.7 $$$$ Smeagol (11/5/04; 17:15:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 126105)

$$$$ $439.6 $$$$ Rustee (11/5/04; 09:02:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 126086)

$$$$ $431.6 $$$$ servantHeart (11/5/04; 10:26:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 126092)

$$$$ $431.0 $$$$ DryWasher (11/4/04; 16:13:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 126074

$$$$ $426.5 $$$$ Topaz (11/4/04; 16:13:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 126075)

$$$$ $422.3 $$$$ The Knife (11/5/04; 10:03:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 126089)

===
<;-)

COMEX December '04 Gold Contract (GCZ04)
Open = $430.6 HIGH = $435.0 low = $425.5
SETTLEMENT = $434.3 CHANGE +$3.5
===
AND the "KING of the HILL" today is:
Sir ServantHeart (11/5/04; 10:26:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 126092)
$$$$ $431.6 $$$$
---
<;-)

With gold in hand the question is; Where are you going that you are not already there?

Gold has nowhere to go at all, because gold, like our Sun, is a center point. The dollar, like the Earth, is spinning and rotating in an orbit that will eventually collapse into a black hole.

Best Wishes

TAA TAA TAAAAAAAAAAAAA, TAA TAA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !

Entries as of SATURDAY 11/6/04 at just about 00:01 Denver time !!!

OFFICIAL ENTRY LISTING
Listed in order of decreasing values !
----

$$$$ $575.2 $$$$ Sprout (11/5/04; 15:19:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 126103)

$$$$ $456.5 $$$$ Gene (11/5/04; 11:03:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 126096)

$$$$ $451.6 $$$$ mikal (11/5/04; 13:35:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 126099)

$$$$ $450.0 $$$$ Lothar of the Hill People (11/5/04; 14:19:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 126101)

$$$$ $444.4 $$$$ Zhisheng (11/4/04; 10:56:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 126063)

$$$$ $442.5 $$$$ Noble1 (11/5/04; 18:23:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 126110)

$$$$ $441.7 $$$$ Smeagol (11/5/04; 17:15:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 126105)

$$$$ $439.6 $$$$ Rustee (11/5/04; 09:02:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 126086)

$$$$ $438.9 $$$$ Liberty Head (11/5/04; 21:37:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 126116)

$$$$ $431.6 $$$$ servantHeart (11/5/04; 10:26:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 126092)

$$$$ $431.0 $$$$ DryWasher (11/4/04; 16:13:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 126074

$$$$ $426.5 $$$$ Topaz (11/4/04; 16:13:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 126075)

$$$$ $422.3 $$$$ The Knife (11/5/04; 10:03:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 126089)
===
Lots of empty spaces in the range of prices !
BUT, don't wait tooooo long as the winning price will be taken by the COB on Monday ! (so says the Crystal Ball !)
<;-)

The Invisible Hand (2/18/02; 01:46:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 70296)
Confirmation and discussion ****$ 8,752****
I do hereby confirm my guess of ****$ 8,752 ****
Discussion: Although in an earlier post of the last fortnight I said that A/TG predicted an upward surge of 50 bucks a day, I think it would be more precise to say that the gentlemen argue the unexpected move towards $ 30,000 can occur at anytime. It must thus start once. Why not within the 'time limit' of the contest?
==
"Where gold is going and why?" Gold is going to $ 30,000 because A/TG/FOA said so.

Where gold is going and why.

Where? Why, up of course ... a lot, in US-dollar terms.

Moby Dollar, the great greenback-whale is sounding, the harpoon in his flank and with Captain Bush "bonded" to it�down, down, down into the cold, dark depths. Ahabless sight! The Pequod ship-of-state is divided and sinking. Ishmael, (from the Hebrew word meaning "God hears"), the lone survivor, strikes out for the golden shore ... determined, perhaps, to leave "bondage" behind and become a "Goldenaire".

What does Fedallah prophesise for gold?
" $446.3 by Monday week!" booms he, his eyes rolling wildly in their sockets.
Good enow for Sundeck!

So be my say,
Four forty-six point thray,
For gold that day...

Yours Aye!

.............................


How to stop this? Impossible! For when the lemmings are running, only a cliff can stop them. I'm afraid Bobby Godsell will get "a good gold price", but sadly not "in a good world".

Now ... where did I put those 1-oz Kangas? Dang! They're around here somewhere... That does it! I have to go clean up my study ... or else buy a metal detector.

;-)

Sundeck

I like Invisible Hand's logic; i.e., if it's going to happen someday, why not this month? Actually, I think the long-awaited rise toward numbers beyond $800 began a couple of weeks ago, but we'll see a period of 20-dollar increases and 27-dollar smash downs before we get to the 50-dollar moves. Since the timeframe of the contest is so small, I'm just picking a number in the upper end of the range.

Caradoc

The Arafat situation gives us a possible "trigger" that could lead to 50-dollar moves sooner rather than later.

BACKGROUND: There are thousands of Palestinians (self-designated and otherwise) who have been working in Muslim countries around the world for the last few decades. Something that's not common knowledge is that -- in addition to whatever the particular country's tax practice may be -- all those paychecks have had 2% deducted and sent to the PLO. These trickles of money flowing out of individual paychecks have added up to rivers of money flowing out of various countries from northwest Africa all the way across to Malayasia. And these sums obviously haven't been spent on roads or hospitals or powerplants. Instead (in amounts estimated to total between 2 and 3 billion dollars), they've been deposited somewhere safe in accounts to which even Arafat's wife has no access.

CURRENT SITUATION: Certain decision-makers in the banking industry are reading about Arafat's health, thinking about huge deposits which are unlikely ever to be withdrawn, and pondering what to do with them. Whether for personal benefit or for the good of the institution, one strategy that must come to mind is to convert those deposits to real wealth.

OUTLOOK: Even if dribbled into the physical market a million or two at a time, adding these funds to existing demand over the next few months would be more than enough to serve as gold's "trigger."

Remember the pundits of late September and early October making noises about how gold would trade in the $395-to-$407 range during 2005? I expect that most of these fellows will have to raise their sights a notch or two, and their next expert prognostication will be something like "...massive resistance slightly above $500 which puts an upper limit on gold's temporary strength before returning to sub-$400 levels." Look for those assessments as we go past $450. They'll be as wrong then as they were a month ago.

There was a time a few years ago when US-held gold would have balanced our international commitments if priced at $1,642 per ounce. Those days are long gone, and there's little point in recalculating a formula with one variable that increases by a billion dollars a day and external factors kicking in to make it graph out like the righthand side of a parabola. If you want a number per ounce, just pick one between $5,000 and infinity. Whatever you come up with, it's about as meaningful as pricing an ounce of real wealth as however many pounds of sawdust.

Regards to all,

Caradoc

My prediction this time is based on current market price of 1oz as per ebay with an increase in price at average $3 per day.
"Where gold is going and why".

I think gold is going up because;
1. Oil demand - I beleive oil is priced in gold.
2. GW Bush is back in power and the world has the jitters.
3. The declining value of the US dollar is not considered a good investment.
4. More and more people are realising precious metals are a safe haven for their savings.
5. Property is overpriced and not a good investment.

Anyone seriously considering changing their residence should think about Argentina. Magnificent country - with its problems, yes, but also with vast potential for individual efforts to bear fruit. Argentina is CIVILIZED. The flavor of the country is European.

*****

A true story came to mind this morning. Back in the mid-1800's, an American trading ship - sail back in those days - went up into the Arctic during the summer, with a load of rum. They came to a small Eskimo village and traded rum barrels for seal skins or whatever.

The ship returned a year later, and found the village gone. All the villagers were dead. They had not survived the winter, they had been carousing, madly drunk on rum the whole time they should have been preparing for winter.
********
Lesson: the whole world is on a crazy drunk of PAPER, PLASTIC OR ELECTRONIC MONEY. It is malinvesting its savings. Sure, it's been a wonderfully satisfying drunken orgy, but - winter will come. Now, it's not just a little village in the Arctic that is at risk; it's the whole world.

So, don't join the orgy. Set aside as much as you can, for the coming economic winter: it is going to be a long, hard winter. Buy gold and stay SOBER!

the GAB

The "LESSON" ....great and true comparison....'Paper Drunks'

Love Bolivia myself, but no Ocean...Peru also, not yet seen Argentina....Thru good times & bad times, people seem alot happier than in N.A.....Civility and generosity unsurpassed! (by most Latinos)...IMHO...YGM

http://www.usagold.com/buy-gold-coins.html

Like it's predecessor, 9/11-II would be extremely useful for a number of purposes. Amoung other things, it would 'explain' a crisis in the financial markets. Also, such a thing would be a necessary prerequisite to conscription (_not_ known as a 'draft' to those who also don't call the firebombs we used in Iraq 'napalm' because the petroleum distilate base has changed slightly since Vietnam.)

If/When this happens, I've little doubt that $000.00 will be the most accurate way to describe the _price_ of gold on 'legitimate' markets. I doubt that it will happen in time for me to take this guessing contest...but I doubt that I will be lucky enough to nail it with a more conventional guess as well. On the other hand (re. timing), a draft does not imediatly put boots on the ground in the Middle East since there is a lag for training (amoung other social infrastructure engineering necessities) and time lost is very painful as the insurgency in Iraq is, in my opinion, doing quite well in terms of forming a solid foundation. Thus I would be more surprised to see 9/11-II happen never than I would to see it happen tomarrow.

One guess is as good as another.But at some point the manipulators will get blindsided'so obvious is their game.Now that China and Russia is fully aware of the game,the demise thereof is only a matter of time.

$$$ 454.50 $$$$$

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000006&sid=a4oYWNtpoShc&refer=homeChina says it will pursue a "more flexible" Yuan policy
November 6, 2004
Judging from what Merrill Lynch, Chase and others have been saying on this, currency change is in the wind.
But before deciding that a new, widened or basket-style peg is needed to help "cool down" their economy, China may act anyway to protect their investments at home and abroad.
Along with their traditional, regional and especially Cold-War era trading partners, survival means hanging together in good times and bad. And so it is that hard times call for even harder assets and alas, sometimes hearts too.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/msid-911288,curpg-1.cmsChina, Asean trade likely to top $100bn by year-end - The Times of India
November 5, 2004

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=$USD,PThe attached P'nF chart of the US$ shows a spread triple bottom breakdown as of Friday November 5, 2004. Using a bearish horizontal count to calculate the price objective, I get a a PO of 68. The dollar's goin' down and I expect that this will accelerate now that the election is over. Also, Spot has closed >$432.00 breaking previous resistance and we should see some breakout fireworks this coming week....just Waverider's view FWIW! Cheers!

TAA TAA TAAAAAAAAAAAAA, TAA TAA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !


Entries as of SUNDAY 11/7/04 at just about 07:10 Denver time !!!

OFFICIAL ENTRY LISTING

Listed in order of decreasing values !
----

$$$ $8,752.0 $$$ The Invisible Hand (11/6/04; 02:45:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 126118)

$$$$ $575.2 $$$$ Sprout (11/5/04; 15:19:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 126103)

$$$$ $499.0 $$$$ Caradoc (11/6/04; 04:35:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 126120)

$$$$ $467.0 $$$$ jenika (11/6/04; 05:55:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 126122)

$$$$ $456.5 $$$$ Gene (11/5/04; 11:03:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 126096)

$$$$ $454.5 $$$$ mackattack (11/6/04; 18:24:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 126127)

$$$$ $451.6 $$$$ mikal (11/5/04; 13:35:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 126099)

$$$$ $450.0 $$$$ Lothar of the Hill People (11/5/04; 14:19:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 126101)

$$$$ $447.5 $$$$ Waverider (11/07/04; 01:23:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 126130)

$$$$ $446.3 $$$$ Sundeck (11/6/04; 04:20:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 126119)

$$$$ $444.4 $$$$ Zhisheng (11/4/04; 10:56:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 126063)

$$$$ $442.5 $$$$ Noble1 (11/5/04; 18:23:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 126110)

$$$$ $441.7 $$$$ Smeagol (11/5/04; 17:15:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 126105)

$$$$ $439.6 $$$$ Rustee (11/5/04; 09:02:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 126086)

$$$$ $438.9 $$$$ Liberty Head (11/5/04; 21:37:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 126116)

$$$$ $431.6 $$$$ servantHeart (11/5/04; 10:26:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 126092)

$$$$ $431.0 $$$$ DryWasher (11/4/04; 16:13:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 126074

$$$$ $426.5 $$$$ Topaz (11/4/04; 16:13:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 126075)

$$$$ $422.3 $$$$ The Knife (11/5/04; 10:03:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 126089)

$$$$ $000.0 $$$$ TomJIl (11/6/04; 16:21:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 126126)

===
Lots of time for you LURKERS to get your "POSTING" password from the Town Crier and make your entry !
Just follow the instructions at the LINK:
"Discussion Forum Guidelines"
at the top of this page.

<;-)

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/2002084436_bushbiz07.htmlThe next 4 years: a shift to "ownership society"
by Peter G. Gosselin - November 7, 2004 - L.A. Times
PPT or SOS?
If passed as most expect, at what interest rate will the trillions in new loans be priced which the US will use to start-up private social security accounts for young workers?

....Has the Gold Caper Endgame began?....
I believe so...The next "Great Fleecing of the Masses" has begun the endrun...
....The investing worlds insatiable lust for Gold will now begin to unfold and the "Death Throes of Gold Shorts" will, combined with the buying frenzy of 'Joe Sixpack' amaze historians, shock the 'Paper' pushers and cause a great redistribution of wealth...Sadly little will be gained by the average person and those with great debt loads and paper assets will feel much pain in the months/years ahead...I cannot imagine what else may accompany the coming Fiat vs Gold crisis, such as Trade Wars, Cold Wars or even Real Wars...I'll leave that to other prognosticators...I don't believe anything happens by accident in the world of CB's...The scene we see about to unfold has been (IMO) in the works for years..."So I make my guess" of $$$$435.50$$$$ based on the Short folks being dragged kicking and screaming to the days of "LIMIT UP GOLD"...Soon to be on Wall Street Radar Screen!!!!!....YGM

http://www.abcs-of-gold-investing.com/

I can't remember who here said 'I may be wrong, I often am', but I do believe I have a pretty solid record of getting these price prognostications significantly wrong. So I'm going to say that, despite the tide of dollars washing the POG further along, the wave that took it over the 16-year high mark is going to drop back a little awaiting the next wave.
I'm ready with my golden surfboard !
C!

I believe that GOld is going to get a big lift this week ...
because
a) Resistance at 433 is being taken out.....
b) Monday starts early in the far east and I think they are going

1)to buy up the market on follow through because of greed ( not wanting to miss the move which may later be precipitated in NY on Monday)
2) and because they know in the long term GOLD IS MONEY and therefore a good investment .

c) the dollar suppport is now much lower 8147 according
to one / its support being broken and gravity what it is
it's precipitous decline over the next couple of days
prior to the Fed meeting is likely to propel gold on
way

d) as a b and c occur , increased buying will come into this market acting like a self fulfilling prophece ; all these factors are going to snowball into each other

e) Short covering is going to ensue from those caught in the fray ......this may be a pivot point for large derivitives holders (banks and insurance cos) who may pemanently shift into long positions.....which will mean that the short covering will turn into excessive buying for shorts to establish long positions

f) The absence of counseling for our President and congress in the form of a class called "SPENDERS ANONYMOUS" which sends a clear message to the INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY that this would be an advantageous/ opportune time to sell dollar denominated assets before the avalanche of selling comes ; it's clear these players know where the exit doors are and they are finding them in an orderly fashion before someone yells fire in the INTERNATIONAL THEATRE of PAPER WOE.

The reelection of W sent the signal. The worlds CBs and politicians ready their attack poodles for release. There is no longer room for a sole superpower. Dollar hegemony must go. It begins this week�death by a thousand ankle bites.

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=nifea&&sid=aOSOl0uxw0RQExcerpt...Twenty-nine of 45 traders, investors and analysts surveyed from Sydney to New York on Nov. 4 and Nov. 5 advised buying gold, which is sold in dollars. Ten recommended selling the metal, and six were neutral....


***10 believe Gold will drop obviously & they probably think Fed hike Nov 10th will stall POG & expect correction...
----"OR"--- they're selling short & want help!!!!..YGM

http://www.costco.com/Browse/Product.aspx?Prodid=11008820&whse=⊤nav=&cat=4181&hierPath=84*4181*Snip:
The dollar sell-off has resumed amid fears among traders that Mr Bush's victory will bring four more years of widening US budget and current account deficits, heightened geopolitical risks and a policy of "benign neglect" of the dollar.

Many currency traders were taken aback on Friday when the greenback fell in spite of bullish data showing the US economy created 337,000 jobs in October.

"If this can't cause the dollar to strengthen you have to tell me what will. This is a big green light to sell the dollar," said David Bloom, currency analyst at HSBC, as the greenback fell to a nine-year low in trade-weighted terms.
********end of snip*********

Sounds pretty clear, doesn't it? And we're getting it from a non-"goldbug" source on the same weekend the US public is beginning to hear commercials about why to invest in silver. Interesting, but barring some major event, it'll probably take 6 to 8 weeks before Joe Sixpack begins to think maybe he should climb onboard. In short, plenty of time to add to your positions. Just call our host's number...

Short term I see gold dropping towards $410, medium term a substantial rise towards $500 and over and long term a gradual drop to the region well below $200. This is what my charts tell me.

Medium term the usual well known, getting slightly boring hearing about them, things like the overworked greenback printing presses, oil (I expect a substantial drop in the price soon) etc etc.

I do not expect the so called Cabal to relax their grip in the short term. They were supposed to have been taken out at prices such as $300, $330, $370, $412 the list I have heard is as long as my arm. It never happened. One day the big boys sentiment will change, then we will have fireworks.

Buy gold and enjoy the ride!

I should have added something to my last post when I said "Buy gold and enjoy the ride" The ride will be long and bumpy and everyone should select a destination where they leave the ride. Do not expect to get off at the final destination, very few do. How many people do you know who can truthfully say I sold my PM holdings in 1980 within $50 or even $100 of the top?

http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/A Wake up Call to us all....

http://www.peakoil.net/iwood2003/paper/KlarePaper.docsnip:


"The Cheney report's emphasis on procuring ever-increasing supplies of imported energy to satisfy America's growing demand will have a profound impact on American foreign and military policy in the years ahead. Not only will American officials have to negotiate access to these overseas supplies and arrange for the sorts of investments that will make increased production and export possible, but they must also take steps to make certain that foreign deliveries to the United States are not impeded by war, revolution, or civil disorder. These imperatives will govern U.S. policy toward all significant energy-supplying regions, especially the Persian Gulf area, the Caspian Sea basin, Africa, and Latin America.

As will become evident from the discussion that follows, moreover, implementation of the Cheney energy plan will also have significant implications for U.S. security policy and for the actual deployment and utilization of American military forces. This is so because most of the countries that are expected to supply the United States with increased petroleum in the years ahead are riven by internal conflicts or harbor strong anti-American sentiments, or both. This means that American efforts to procure additional oil from foreign sources are almost certain to encounter violent disorder and resistance in many key producing areas. And while U.S. officials might prefer to avoid the use of force in such situations, they may conclude that the only way to ensure the continued flow of energy is to guard the oil fields and pipelines with American soldiers.

To add to Washington's dilemma, the very fact of U.S. troop deployments in the oil-producing areas is likely to stir up resentment from inhabitants of these areas who fear the revival of colonialism or who object to particular American policies (such as, for example, U.S. support for Israel). As a result, American efforts to safeguard the flow of oil could well result in the intensification rather than the diminution of local disorder and violence � leading, in turn, to the deployment of additional American troops and a continuing spiral of confrontation and conflict./9/ "

http://www.iht.com/bin/print_ipub.php?file=/articles/2004/11/05/opinion/edkissinger.html
Brings us up to speed on the NWO.

http://charts-d.quote.com:443/1002980432830?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=DX00Y∬erval=10&Ht=600&Wd=800&Display=2&Study=MA&Param1=13&Param2=0&Param3=&FontSize=10Looks as if the US$ in headed your way Sir GAB !
But I know that you will be headed back North in the near future.
<;-)

Here is a snippet from miningnews "Austria keen on gold sales"



Monday, November 08, 2004
AUSTRIA'S central bank has re-kindled the debate about official gold sales by announcing that it plans to continue sales over the next five years.

Austrian treasury director, Peter Zoellner, told wire services at a conference in London that Austria would sell less than 90 tonnes, but he declined to put a specific figure on the sales.

The sales would be in accord with an orderly gold disposal agreement between European banks.

Austria is said to hold a total of 318t of gold and has been a regular seller over the past five years.

"We've seen good returns on gold over the last five years; it's been a good experience," Zoellner told Dow Jones.
End.

$$$$429.10$$$$ By Mudr
That's my guess for the price of GOLD contest. Why? People are beginning to wake up to the fact that GOLD isn't going back to $300. The U.S. dollar seems ready to tank even more and is sure to not to climb back into healthy territory -especially with record (and astonishing) high debt. Another reason is that other currencies are being backed by GOLD - and even some countries are rumored to be increasing their GPLD hording. And as I mentioned first - the common person is waking up that GOLD is real money, sure to retain it's value - so why not own even just a little? Or a lot. GOLD to $500 next year is a sure thing.
Mudr

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000101&sid=aOx55nsLohz8&refer=japanSnip:

"...

Japan will likely try to stem any rapid appreciation of its currency, Ito said. Bank of Japan Governor Toshihiko Fukui yesterday signaled the central bank may sell its currency for the first time in almost eight months. ``We are keeping a good eye on the movements of exchange rates,'' including the yen, Fukui told reporters in Basel, Switzerland.

The Bank of Japan refrained from selling yen from March 16 to Oct. 27, according to the most recent Ministry of Finance data.

``If the yen moves 3 yen overnight without the euro moving at all, that's probably a good trigger,'' Ito said. ``If the yen approaches 100, that's a psychological barrier. They may try to defend that.''

The dollar is down 3.7 percent against the yen and 4.2 percent versus the euro in the past month.

Ito, 54, was a senior adviser to the International Monetary Fund on capital markets from 1994 to 1997. The author of eight books in English and Japanese, he has written several articles on central bank currency selling and the impact on the foreign exchange market.

..."


Sundeck: The Yen is back at the level of early this year when the BOJ made heafty purchases of the dollar...at the present rate of the dollar's descent, the BOJ will probably start intervening sooner rather than later.

I wonder what "agreements" exist between the FED, BOJ and the European Central Bank et al. to cope with times like these??? Is it dog eat dog, or are these bankers/Ministry of Finance people "civilised" types? (Dumb question??)

:-)

Zoellner is a complete idiot,if he intended to get a quota on the WA2,he would had to announce it on the last Washington meeting.The WA2 is in force since 27. September and I do see this as breach of contract,no matter how much they originally intended to sell.This gives new uncertainity on the Goldmarket and lowers the value of their words close to zero.

And talking down Gold the day after Gold breaches 433 is a bit too obvious.

Go Gold!
Go GATA!

I'd chalk this up as a case of making mountains out of molehills, but heck, these aren't even molehills. There's so little Gold involved here that it's more like you're making a pebble out of a sand grain. Were you just in a dark mood and looking for any ol' excuse to vent? 'Cause this hardly qualifies as worthy of raising anyones dander.

You didn't really expect that fabulous Austrian Mint would be put into mothballs did you? And on top of that, it's my humblest opinion that you're making way too much of the whole "announcement" deal. It's never been the case that each seller had to publicly pre-announce their details of participation. Looking back on the completed terms of the first agreement shows that a lot of the reallocation details were left to speculation, and market insiders/watchers who thought they had it all figured out were surprised after the fact that Germany and Portugal had a few grains in there. Either way, the exact makeup of the cast of characters and the size of their parts didn't then (and still won't) do anything to derail the basic script or bring down the curtain on Gold. The show that never ends.

Kinda makes you wonder what world Golden Lionheart (msg#: 126140) is livin' in. Charts might tease his brain with visions of Gold below $200, but I'd wager he'd have a pretty tough time explaining/describing the corresponding economic realities of that hypothetical day. In other words, what would be the dollar's exchange rate v. the euro? What would be the price of oil? What would be the price of bread that currently sells for two bucks? Where's the S&P and Nasdaq? What's the fed funds rate? What's the ten-year rate? What's the monthly balance of trade position? What's the budget deficit of the federal government? Has the banking system been decimated? When do the patterns of human behavior become suspended to knock us completely off our current course into his fanciful forecasted future?

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

There are lots of good reasons that gold will continue to become more valuable. These are discussed on this great forum each and every day. I choose to go with a more, "from the gut" reason. People need something they can count on. Be it religion, or each other. In an age where more and more things can be faked, there will eventually be a collective outcry for something that can't be created or destroyed on a whim. Gold is simply the very best store of wealth/medium of exchange that man has ever discovered, a very element of this earth, provided by God. What else can you bury in your backyard, have your grandchildren dig up in 50 years, and have it clean up as if it spent all of those 18,250 days in a vault?

I have faith that the paper cataracts over the eyes of man will soon fall.

-DoubleEagle

Yes I'm in a dark mood these days,my Daddy is very ill and prepares for dying,this must impact my mood (though not my investment decisions).We always had (and still have) wonderful and lengthy discussions about world politics and financials.I could convince him to buy a stash of physical 4 years ago,but he remained a skeptic about my Goldprojections.I always told him "Papi,you will live to see it!".Being a player (roulette...),this "bet" somehow keeps him alive-a player does not leave when the ball is still rolling...

The amount of Gold isn't worth mentioning,yes,and if it goes to the mint,good,I like those Philharmonikers (even the 30kg Biggie) :-)

My critic is:why can't they be more straight,more reliable on something intended to add to transparency?They are supposed to operate the "honest fiat" regime!Guess I'm a hopeless romantic.Sickandtired of this cheap charade,I know that it won't change the big picture,but I have chosen the red pill :-(

Another point:it has been argued here about the work-out of the Goldcarry trade since 99.So if FreeGold is achieved when all the Gold available is equal to all the Gold mined'shouldn't there be signs of reduced Gold derivatives (also part of the WAG's)?What I see (if seeing in paperfog is not an oxymoron) is just more of the same,ETF,new futures,SGE proposes also a Goldfuture,more shorting etc..,just adding to the paperGold Olympus Mons.

Doesen't look like the trail is leading to a free physical Goldmarket.Unless you still propose the kaboom-all-Goldderivatives-to be declared worthless-in a second-scenario.Like awakening in the trail camp one day,going outside and seeing the earthdisk on the sky.This does not fit in the stability oriented smooth and gradual transition we have seen so far,the Goldchart also looks perfect.

Ah! $200PoG ... totally plausable Ari. Just let Sir Al pull the plug on the presses for a few weeks. They "are" snookered ... having to print like blazes just to keep IR's "normal". If they stop rates go to Zero ...then Futures move to Cash, in the process all Futures derived pricing (including Gold) will be discounted. Stocks, RE, the whole sheebang.
Gold isn't the antithesis of the Dollar (in isolation) ... it's the Arch-nemesis of the SYSTEM!
Show me Gold rising strongly in ALL currencies Sir and I might entertain a simplistic "Gold to da Moon" notion, until then, large doses of skepticism re: it's price and how it gets there are, imo warranted.

Ah! $200PoG ... totally plausable Ari. Just let Sir Al pull the plug on the presses for a few weeks. They "are" snookered ... having to print like blazes just to keep IR's "normal". If they stop rates go to Zero ...then Futures move to Cash, in the process all Futures derived pricing (including Gold) will be discounted. Stocks, RE, the whole sheebang.
Gold isn't the antithesis of the Dollar (in isolation) ... it's the Arch-nemesis of the SYSTEM!
Show me Gold rising strongly in ALL currencies Sir and I might entertain a simplistic "Gold to da Moon" notion, until then, large doses of skepticism re: it's price and how it gets there are, imo warranted.

The papers here are abuzz with speculation regarding the hard facts of the so-far secret agreements to be signed between CHINA and Argentina. They are said to involve massive transfusions of dollars, in return for contracts on commodities for the next 30 (thirty!) years, to supply China's needs.

Perhaps what we begin to see, is a sloshing around the world, of enormous dollars balances accumulated by China, these balances looking for something TANGIBLE to buy.

Noranda in Canada, and now Argentina become suppliers of commodities to China. As a headline here read recently: "Argentina's future looks YELLOW".

A news article says that the Chinese have chosen Argentina as their beachhead, while the Japanese have favored Brazil.

As the Orientals run out of resources and space, are they now looking across the Pacific for those resources and living space? Lots of tempting empty space on this side of the Pacific...

IMO, Argentina should not be hypothecating its future production, in return for - paper.

In the meantime, while China "makes hay", the U.S.A. is engaged in useless wars in Iraq and Afghanistan that are wasting its substance, demoralizing its populace and making enemies all over the world. Madness reigns supreme! "Omnes insanire"

The GAB

http://www.lbma.org.uk/clearing_table.htmAre a non-event, a blip on the screen..The LBMA cleared 384.4 T ""Daily Average"" in the month of Sept. /04
....I do notice tho the daily amounts cleared have dropped to the lowest in 8 years from 45 M Oz to 12.4...FWIW
Regards...YGM

http://www.lbma.org.uk/clearing_charts.htmGold & Silver.....Reaching new lows.....

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/wallenwein/2004/1107.htmlNov 7/04 Editorial from Financial Sense....

-Thanks for the chart-assuming the LBMA is where the papermonster breeds,I do see a trend,even though it seems to flatten a bit (I guess the POG surge is taking its toll).

-Are the new "Goldproducts" coming up therefore just for liliputans and irrelevant regarding overall Goldpapervolume?The goldencolored ETF has been touted as Goldalternative for the big funds though.

-But what I'm still not getting is this so-called 15000t short position being worked-out without write-offs,and I'm assuming a good part of it is coming from lending (badly underwater now).A default is IMHO still the most likely scenarion-GWB cornered to be the bogeyman?The EU propaganda against Bush was so blatant I have to assume they had an agenda.

-regarding the missing 2200t of the WA2-a newsletter here wrote they're having a hard time to still find a stupid willing to sell his Gold.I'm not going to make an Oesterreicher Witz here as the Swiss were even more stupid.Interesting is only that the Austrian Mint can't go the the Goldmarket and buy the Gold outright.

This to my mind "IS" the Gorilla in the Mist...Will it happen...Myself I think it quite possible, although it may foreshadow total meltdown of Paper Investments...Remember the bail outs of LTCM & Tiger Management...I believe they were saved so as to prolong the fleecing...To think as I do one should probably believe the 1929 crash was orchestrated...As I've said many times.."In the world of Central Bankers" "Nothing happens by accident"...Flood the world w/ Debt and flush the toilet...The "Airy Nothing Game" begins anew w/ new ways and new "Paper" Instruments coupled with human greed and desperation....That together with the expected ramifications of Peak Oil etc the world enters a period of major changes....The last open window of opportunity for cheap Gold is closing as we speak...The world does not have the natural resources to give the 3rd World the lifestyle of the west and they want it...How better to slow the pace than another "Great Depression"...Complacency reigns supreme in the world today, and there will be many surprises along the way...JMHO...FWIW...YGM

Get GOLD/SILVER & Go GATA

http://www.lbma.org.uk/clearing_charts.htmPlease accept my sincerest regards to your father, and to all of us who try to make the best of the time remaining to us.

I'm glad to hear you like the Philharmonikers. That's always been my bullion coin of choice. Keeping them all in good company, ratio-wise, for each and every one of those that I have stacked away I have as nearly as I can guess without trying too hard roughly five sovereigns, six assorted French, Swiss, and Belgian 20francs, 2-3 German 20mks, two Dutch 10Gs, and a pleasing array of Gold from other corners of the world. Mintwise, they're all excellent, but if I had to split hairs I don't think there's any topping the Austrian and German mints for quality of craftsmanship. So, yes, let's keep that Gold coming to the mint! I promise you won't be hearing me call Zoellner off-suit names for it.

Regarding your frustrations about the assorted ideas for adding new Gold-paperfog to parts of the world, YGM was right to point you the declining LBMA clearing charts. Because, the most important thing to remember is that it requires an ASSOCIATION tying together all of the various papergold obligations into a cohesive ("monetary-like") system to obscure the Physical behind the apparent merits of the inflating papergold supply. United they can stand for a while, divided they shall fall the sooner.

The new papergold products you mentioned are bits and bobs of a house divided, confirmed further by the declining figures and the changing faces at the LBMA, especially in these past five years. And more to that point, the "association" I speak of requires more than just names filling a membership roster. It means they must risk themselves for each other, filling the breach when a counterparty fails and tips one of the dominoes.

Sure, they still look chummy together at the conferences, but those days are over.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

Much easier said than done.

I'd anticipated somebody might float that idea, so that's why one of my final questions to be considered was "When do the patterns of human behavior become suspended?" To be sure, banks, and especially central banks, fear deflation more than anything else. And the electorate is none to fond of it either, so the political reality says (whispering) to all who'll listen to it... "Not in your lifetime."

I'll readily accept your proposal that Gold *futures* may someday be discounted dubiously as an unassociated game of counterparty numbers, but that premise merely reinforces/restates that Physical Gold will NOT be moving at the derivative price.

Townie's referred to Gold as the "anti-money" and here I see you calling it the "Arch-nemisis of the System." I think you're saying the same things, and I COMPLETELY agree with it; see my comments on "association" to Sir Knallgold.

Gold. Get you some truly "system-free" safety. --- Aristotle

http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh24458_2004-11-08_17-27-48_n08453439_newsmlHEADLINE: Colombia to sell global bond in pesos, pay dollars

BOGOTA, Colombia, Nov 8 (Reuters) - Betting that its peso will remain strong against the U.S. dollar over the next six years, Colombia on Monday said it will sell a $250 million global bond to be issued in pesos and repaid in dollars.

The sale of the 2010 bond, planned for later this week, will mark the first time for the war-torn Andean country will make such a gamble on its own currency, which has risen 10.4 percent against the dollar over the last 12 months to 2,547 per greenback on Monday.

"This is a clear sign of confidence in the country," Colombia's Director of Public Credit Felipe Sardi said in a conference call with investors.

On Monday, the dollar sagged to new record lows against the euro and a nine-year low against a basket of currencies. Many analysts say the dollar is relapsing into its long-running decline, heavily weighed by the wide U.S. trade gap.

...Uruguay had been the first Latin American country to issue a similarly structured bond.

-----(from url)-----

To say it is a sign of confidence in Colombia is the politically polite way around of saying it is a vote of no confidence in the dollar.

Did you ever think such a day would arrive that Colombian pesos could ever be the market's choice over U.S. dollars?

With an eye to diversify, you can take a similar social gamble on printable pesos, or you can choose the tangible security of unprintable gold. Choose gold.

R.

TAA TAA TAAAAAAAAAAAAA, TAA TAA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !

Entries as of MONDAY 11/8/04 at just about 13:00 Denver time !!!

OFFICIAL ENTRY LISTING

Listed in order of decreasing values !
----

$$$ $8,752.0 $$$ The Invisible Hand (11/6/04; 02:45:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 126118)

$$$$ $575.2 $$$$ Sprout (11/5/04; 15:19:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 126103)

$$$$ $499.0 $$$$ Caradoc (11/6/04; 04:35:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 126120)

$$$$ $467.0 $$$$ jenika (11/6/04; 05:55:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 126122)

$$$$ $456.5 $$$$ Gene (11/5/04; 11:03:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 126096)

$$$$ $454.5 $$$$ mackattack (11/6/04; 18:24:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 126127)

$$$$ $451.6 $$$$ mikal (11/5/04; 13:35:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 126099)

$$$$ $450.1 $$$$ Cometose (11/7/04; 13:14:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 126136)

$$$$ $450.0 $$$$ Lothar of the Hill People (11/5/04; 14:19:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 126101)

$$$$ $448.8 $$$$ Toolie (11/7/04; 14:32:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 126137)

$$$$ $447.5 $$$$ Waverider (11/07/04; 01:23:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 126130)

$$$$ $446.3 $$$$ Sundeck (11/6/04; 04:20:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 126119)

$$$$ $444.5 $$$$ DoubleEagle (11/8/04; 02:27:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 126152)

$$$$ $444.4 $$$$ Zhisheng (11/4/04; 10:56:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 126063)

$$$$ $442.5 $$$$ Noble1 (11/5/04; 18:23:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 126110)

$$$$ $441.7 $$$$ Smeagol (11/5/04; 17:15:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 126105)

$$$$ $439.6 $$$$ Rustee (11/5/04; 09:02:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 126086)

$$$$ $438.9 $$$$ Liberty Head (11/5/04; 21:37:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 126116)

$$$$ $435.5 $$$$ YGM (11/7/04; 09:39:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 126133)

$$$$ $431.6 $$$$ servantHeart (11/5/04; 10:26:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 126092)

$$$$ $431.0 $$$$ DryWasher (11/4/04; 16:13:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 126074

$$$$ $429.1 $$$$ mudr (11/7/04; 21:59:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 126147)

$$$$ $427.0 $$$$ Clink! (11/7/04; 12:25:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 126135)

$$$$ $426.5 $$$$ Topaz (11/4/04; 16:13:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 126075)

$$$$ $422.3 $$$$ The Knife (11/5/04; 10:03:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 126089)

$$$$ $419.5 $$$$ Golden Lionheart (11/7/04; 17:13:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 126140)

$$$$ $000.0 $$$$ TomJIl (11/6/04; 16:21:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 126126)

===
Lots of time for you LURKERS to get your "POSTING" password from the Town Crier and make your entry !
Just follow the instructions at the LINK:
"Discussion Forum Guidelines"
at the top of this page.
<;-)

COMEX December '04 Gold Contract (GCZ04)
Open = $435.0 HIGH = $436.1 low = $431.9
SETTLEMENT = $433.4 CHANGE -$0.9
===
AND the "KING of the HILL" today is STILL:
Sir ServantHeart (11/5/04; 10:26:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 126092)
$$$$ $431.6 $$$$
---
Hang in there Sir ServantHeart !
<;-)

Gold is going nowhere. It will sit and hold it's value like it's done for the last 6,000 years. The U.S. dollar and other currencies however are dropping to their historic intrinsic value, which is namely zero.

http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Daily Gold Market Report has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.

-----closing market excerpts------

gold futures close above $430 for a third session

"The arguments to be long gold -- weak dollar, strong physical demand and prospect of lower mine supplies, geo-political instability particularly in the Middle East and global terror threat -- all remain," said James Moore, analyst at TheBullionDesk.com in London.

"U.S. data due this week, which includes October retail sales and [the] September international trade report as well as the FOMC rate announcement on Wednesday, looks set to keep market volatility high," he said in a note to clients. "But the bulls still seem firmly in control with $440 the next major target once the $433 to $436 hurdle is cleared."

Comex December futures fell 90 cents to close at $433.40 after tallying a total gain of $13.50 over the last three sessions.

Taking a look at the bigger picture, "gold, silver, and the euro are overbought and entitled to some consolidation," said Peter Grandich, editor of The Grandich Letter, an investment advisory publication.

But "all the ingredients that got us to this point remain intact," he said, adding that "gold remains off the radar of most investors, and the mainstream financials bode well for those of us who envision $500-plus."

-----(see url for access to full news, 24-hr international newswire)---

Many thanks for the briliant inside posts around here lately, definitly the information shared, is times ahead and a mixture of these insights will, as time matures be found to be as tru as ever....

Imagine the pressure build up now in the markets around the world, just one click can move zillions of confetti in seconds!!! Yes, even nano seconds !!!
Therefore keep it simple and consider the insurance as what the real GOLD is teaching us now as a once in a liftime opportunety!

Contest guess for this ST is more a casino gamble as to my personal, LT is what matters.

Sal-OM All !!
Shanti

http://www.thehimalayantimes.com/fullstory.asp?filename=aBXaza0rdqzpda4Ua6va.axamal&folder=aBDasaian729&Name=Business&dtSiteDate=20041109&sImageFileName=(Himalayan News Service) Kathmandu, November 8 -- Increasing significantly over the last few days, the price of gold has reached an all time high of Rs 10,440 per 10 gram in the local market.

"Decrease in the value of US dollar over yen and euro and political instability observed in the Middle East are contributing towards an increased demand for gold reserves, triggering a price rise . These are the main reasons for the increase in the price of gold in the international market," said Tej Ratna Shakya, president of Nepal Gold and Silver Dealers' Association.

Nepal has a small gold market and we entirely depend on imports. Thus even a slight change in the international market will surely affect the local market. Local markets also fluctuate due to increasing demand during festive seasons, Shakya added.

The drop in the value of dollar is contributing 90 per cent to the gold price hike, the rest is due to increased jewelry demand, international experts said. Jewelry sales have gone up in the last six months in the international market. Gold prices may rise for the second week on speculation of increased demand from investors seeking an alternative asset to US stocks, bonds and the dollar, a Bloomberg survey showed.

Twenty-one out of the 52 traders, investors and strategists surveyed on October 28-29 from Sydney to New York by Bloomberg urged investors to buy gold this week. Thirteen advised clients to sell, and 18 recommended no action on the precious metal. Gold prices rose by 3.5 per cent in October, outperforming a 1.4 per cent rise in the Standard and Poor's 500 Index as dollar fell 2.8 per cent against the euro.

------(from url)-----

By most accounts, gold is the place to be, doing well as is and yet to be discovered and put to widespread use by the masses of traditional western investors. Thus underutilized, present buyers enjoy its undervalued price.

R.

http://www.thebulliondesk.com/content/reports/jpmorgan/metalsoiltechstrategist.pdfWhen even the monarch of Gold Shorting (JPM) goes long, people better wake up....They sold 50% longs at $434....Looking to $440. for the other 50%...Bullish in short and long term....Looking for $7.80 Silver....We'll see what their forecast is in a week or two....YGM

Where is Gold Going? Well, I hope alittle more will cross my palms and into safe keeping before it rockets off to Da Moon! This replay of the $330 line in the sand will accelerate faster than it took to get to $430. Recognition of the Yellow Dog will commense at about $450. This recognition that $2.00 plus $2.00 equals $3.00 buying power.
Then their resistance will break seeing that it will cost them more when $449.9 is broken. Hard to break away from a system you have used for many years and grown accustumed to.
Many will run to the lifeboat (GOLD) as the Titanic (US DOLLAR) slips under the sea by the bow. I have heard and read repeatively. Nobody wants gold when its below $450 but everyone will want it after breaking $450. Gold at $500 this year? Maybe, but for sure next year.
Slingshot------------<>

Snippit from today's Australian Financial review:

Colleen Ryan in article "China Observed" states that:

"Local newspapers in Shanghai reported yesterday that touts on the currency blackmarket have been refusing to accept $US for the last two weeks. That tells you something."

Suspicious lot those currency touts...wonder what their ears are connected to?

;-)

I've been lurking lurking on this board for a while. This seems like a great time to stand up and say "Hello!"

Bought my first handful of silver on a lark maybe a year ago. After doing that, it got me thinking about gold! So I found you guys.

Since I was a little kid I have always wanted to rub my hands over gold and silver coins and have a little, or not so little, box of it buried in the back yard that only I would know about. Of course there would be a treasure map for my family after I die. OK OK. I'm silly.

Anyway I say $440.00 and "Hello!"

It's not silly at all. It's obvious you were "born" to be a Gold Bug. Honest money for honest people. Welcome young bug!!!

and HELLO !
That was a nice ROUND number.
<;-)

http://www2.sjsu.edu/faculty/watkins/hyper.htmSAN JOS� STATE UNIVERSITY
ECONOMICS DEPARTMENT
Thayer Watkins
EPISODES OF HYPERINFLATION

http://www.thestandard.com.hk/thestandard/news_detail_frame.cfm?articleid=52091∫catid=1Snip:

"...
Stronger local currencies reduce the value of exporters' dollar-denominated revenue and make goods shipped to US, the largest destination for Asia's exports, more expensive.

Lehman Brothers' London-based currency strategist Michael Dicks said last week's determined intervention by the Bank of Japan to prevent the yen-dollar rate moving through 105 - spending a sum equivalent to 5 per cent of gross domestic product in the process - has got ``market participants nervous that they might do so again''.

``Likewise, despite assurances from the Chinese authorities that they are working on the problem, progress is slow in getting rid of their dollar peg,'' Dicks said.

..."

Sundeck: What??? Can this be correct? 5% of GDP in one week...LAST week??? Can that be true?

http://money.iwon.com/jsp/nw/nwdt_rt_top.jsp?cat=TOPBIZ&src=704&feed=dji§ion=news≠ws_id=dji-00069020041108&date=20041108&alias=/alias/money/cm/nw
Snippit:

VANCOUVER (Dow Jones)--Gold miner Placer Dome Inc. (PDG) decided to tap the equity markets for the first time in more than a decade because it's eyeing a number of mine projects for possible development, senior vice-president Joe Danni said.

As reported, Placer has filed to issue US$500 million worth of common shares. The underwriters will have an option to buy up to 10% more. CIBC World Markets and Scotia Capital are lead managers for the offering.

Proceeds will be used for general corporate purposes, which may include funding new project development and other capital expenditures, Placer Dome stated.

Separately, Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX) on Monday priced US$750 million of notes in three parts via joint lead managers Deutsche Bank Securities and Morgan Stanley, according to syndicate sources. The company is expected to issue a release soon. Barrick had filed an amended and restated shelf prospectus last week for a debt offering of up to US$1 billion. The Toronto-based gold miner is planning to build five new gold mines in the coming years.


Black Blade: One major problem is where will they find experienced explorationists (particularly geologists)? They mostly have moved on, Universities have switched to enviro-studies by eliminating "real geology". and many have moved on to petroleum making 3X+ as much. So far the Gold miners are still looking for "cheap" professionals. These new projects in the article will be very slow going and are old projects abandoned over the years. I suspect that their new staffs will speak spanish or chinese. ;-)

http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/2004/11/09/stories/2004110900351300.htm
Snippit:

STRONG demand for gold and silver is likely to continue this week with robust consumer buying for the ongoing Diwali festival at retail counters across the country, despite rising prices in the global and domestic market.

"Festival demand from consumers and corporates was strong especially in jewellery and coins. I feel strong buying at retail level will continue to drive market this week," a local trader said.

"Demand for gold was strong last week. Total gold sales were nearly 2.50 tonnes last Thursdaybecause of "Guru Pushya Yog", an auspicious day. I think demand will continue this week," Mr Bhargav Vaidya, a bullion analyst told Business Line.

"In the international market, gold prices may rule higher on continued demand. Retail demand is not halted even at higher level. Gold coins purchase by corporates is strong as a gift for Diwali ," Mr Suresh Hundia, President of the Bombay Bullion Association (BBA) said.


Black Blade: As I stated previously. I buy Gold and Silver bullion (and some coin - here at the castle is a nice selection). However, for work, unless the miners can triple their pay and long term contracts, then I will stay with the petroleum club as other mining pros have done. The festival season has a ways to run, the western holiday season is coming soon, and the USD is plunging to new depths as the current and budget deficits climb higher with no end in sight. For portfolio insurance just give the castle guards a call for a nice chat (USAGOLD that is).

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000101&sid=ah.QWkZv6uAQ&refer=japan
Snippit:

Nov. 8 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar traded close to an all-time low against the euro on concern a report this week will show the U.S. trade shortfall held near a record.

European policy makers contributed to the dollar's slide by indicating last week they aren't opposed to the euro's rally, said strategists including Mark Austin, head of currency strategy at HSBC Holdings Plc. Japan probably won't resume selling yen and buying dollars at the record pace of the first quarter, former deputy finance minister Takatoshi Ito said last week.

``The dollar's definitely going down for the next few weeks,'' said Austin at HSBC, the fifth-largest currency trader. ``Central banks don't seem to be too worried at the moment. We've had plenty of opportunity for them to complain more loudly and we've had pretty muted comments so far.''


Black Blade: Just the "tip of the iceberg" so to say. It will get much worse and I would say the current account trade deficit being the bigger of the twin deficits. I does not matter who was elected either. It's a done deal so hard assets like Gold and Silver as imperative as a base investment (actually insurance from my perspective). The people to talk to are are hosts of course. Mr. Silver and IRA (George Cooper aka Marketalk), Marie and Jonathon on the small order desk, and Mike - the "real big Kahuna" for the gritty details (BTW, thanks for the new book - "updated" ABC's of Gold).

Off to bed now, gotta drill out a NatGas well tomorrow.

.......that "Cuba abandons US dollar..."

Anyone hear/know of the story?

Yep, that CUBA was going to disallow dollars for use in their commerce was being talked about on these Gold Forums for a week now ...maybe 10 days ...since I first read something on this

I think someone else may have abandoned the dollar over the weekened as well......

In addition to CUBA , there is a South American Nation which is currrently doing a BOND ISSUE......I think it may be Colombia ......THEY ARE ISSUING Debt to raise PESOS and they are GOING TO PAY IN DOLLARS...........
this looks like a short play on the dollar to me as well...

THIS LOOKS LIKE THE REVERSE of what happened in the 90's when the dollar was strong ......and Japanese interest rates were .25 / Everyone borrowed yen at low low low rates and invested in the US MARKETS........

Now that the air is coming out of the balloon and the dollar is going down ......THESE type of plays in reverse are happening....THis particular gov't's currency has risen 12% against the dollar recently.......

They are (BANKERS) screwing their Bondholders (whoever they are (naive)) who seem to love dollars. Can they sell these bonds to the uninformed public ; are they going to place them with their MUTUAL FUND MANAGER BRETHREN who are going to put them in their clients holdings (pensions funds , etc)...Are they going to TRADE THEM LIKE A HOT POTATO....around a circle of INSIDER MANAGERS to generate commissions..?
WHOEVER IS LEFT HOLDING AT THE END OF THE DOLLAR SPIRAL ....will be wanting to sell at the bottom because this baby will be the SWAN that took the Swan DIVE and became the ugly duckling.

Two of the correspondents whose posts I respect the most -- Sundeck and Waverider -- have posted estimates very close together. Dare I disagree with them when they agree with each other? The one with an elegant imitation of the style of Herman Melville, and the other with technical analysis that I cannot gainsay.

Actually I cannot understand the technical analysis. The Lady writes of using a "bearish horizontal count" and my mind is filled with a picture of Pooh Bear lying on his back in the Hundred Acre Wood trying to remember what number comes after four. :-)

I think I must dare to disagree. I too fear a post-election recession which will increase the price of gold. In fact, being a Jute, I fear two such recesssions: one in the US following Mr Bush's re-election, and another in the UK following Mr Blair's re-election in May.

But I do not expect this effect to bite as quickly as next Monday. So I post a "steady as she goes" guess.

I firmly believe we are headed for $500 and beyond, but guessing how soon and how quickly it will break at this point in time is hard. The question, as I see it, is when will the common folks (excluding any here at the castle who are, most assuredly, not common) recognize that the rats have started abandoning the USD ship?

For now it will break up, but I believe they will try to temper the rise, if only to buy more time for the insiders(rats) to get away with more loot.

http://interestalert.com/brand/siteia.shtml?Story=st/sn/11090000aaa06eab.upi&Sys=siteia&Fid=LATEBRKN&Type=News&Filter=Late%20BreakingExcerpt....

Analyst predicts U.S.-China trade war


BEIJING, Nov. 9 (UPI) -- China and the United States are likely to face a trade war sparked by the U.S. budget deficit and pressure on China to devalue the yuan, a top analyst says.

Stephen Roach, chief economist at Morgan Stanley, said the.....cont'd

$$$$434.5$$$$
Roach at Morgan Stanley takes the posn that a weaker $ is a good thing for America because it will bring a rise in bond yields which will be required for greater currency risk. This in turn will cause incr
savings and reduced consumer spending? Will this reduce the current acct deficit? If this is true, then in the long run it will also depress gold prices. Therefore watchout for a rise in interest rates.

balzac

Together now SPIKE and SPOT ---
JUMP, JUMP, JUMP !
<;-)

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,137961,00.htmlyou may be right there....Snip....

Fed Seen Raising Interest Rates to Ensure Long-Term Growth
Monday, November 08, 2004

WASHINGTON � Another small hike in U.S. interest rates is seen as a certainty when Federal Reserve (search) policy-makers meet on Wednesday � a step on the march toward a level of rates necessary to underpin long-term expansion.

Since policy-setting members of the Federal Open Market Committee (search) began raising rates in June, they have edged up the bellwether federal funds rate (search), charged on overnight loans between banks, three times in quarter percentage point stages to 1.75 percent.

There is virtually unanimous agreement among analysts that a matching incremental increase will be announced on Wednesday to bring the fed funds rate to 2 percent and a growing consensus that will not mark the end nor even a pause in the rate-rise cycle.....cont'd

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=$USD,PJohn the Jute -thanks for the laugh this morning. Let me see if I can provide a simple and quick explanation. Here we go - the point and figure chart is pure price movement without time considerations, so only price changes are recorded. If no price changes occur, the chart remains untouched. Also, volume is not recorded at all. "x's" represents rising prices, and "o's" represent declining prices. Each time one column of x's moves one box above the previous column, an upside breakout occurs, and vice versa, each time a column of o's moves below the previous column, a breakdown occurs. The numbers represent the month of the year 1-9 is January to September, but rather than using double digit numbers, A = October, B= November and C = December.

Okay, look across the bottom row (horizonal) of O's. Count the number of boxes left to right from the first to the last and there are 7 (with 3 "o's, hence "spread triple bottom breakdown). It appears that the greater the build up of the horizontal count, the greater the pressure for the breakout/breakdown move. The given formula I used is 7x3=21. Minus this (21) from the top "o" of the column to obtain a price objective. In this case, the "o" is A (October). It is at 89. 89-21 = 68.

It seems that the more common way to calculate a price objective is to take the horizantal count (7) and minus it from the breakdown point (in this case 84.07). Using this method the price objective is 77. I don't know enough about Point and figure charting to know the merits/limitations of the two formulas. Hope this helps to understand the mysteries of Pooh Bear & Hundred Acre Wood!

PS - Spot's @ $436.00

TAA TAA TAAAAAAAAAAAAA, TAA TAA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ A "PRICE of GOLD" GUESSING CONTEST!! $$$$$$$$$$$$

We shall have a price guessing contest on the closing (Settlement price) of gold for the December Comex contract (GC4Z) on Monday, November 15, 2004, ---BUT all entries must be posted to the TableRound before Midnight on Wednesday, November 10th.

The POG Contest winner -- the closest price guess to the actual Settlement Price -- will receive a British Queen Victoria Sovereign (which may be seen at the following LINK)
http://www.usagold.com/gold/coins/BritVict.html

These coins were Minted between 1871 and 1901, are of a Fineness of 0.917, with an Actual Gold Content of 0.2354 troy ounce.

There will be also be two runners-up prizes for the next closest prognostications --- each winning an one ounce Canadian Silver Maple Leaf.
----

THE RULES -- (We MUST have RULES !!) --- PLEASE READ !!

1) The Winner is the poster with the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX (most active) December 2004 Gold Contract (GC4Z) on the date of Monday, November 15, 2004.

2) Secret invisable "Rule".

3) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $444.4)

4) "Guesses" shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT BOX location AND enclosed in markers of "Dollar Signs" so as to be OFFICIAL !
(Such as $$$$$$444.4 $$$$$$$ )

5) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".

6) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes MIDNIGHT (24:00) on Wednesday, November 10, 2004.

7) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY (as this part MUST accompany the Price prognostication)
--- In order for your entry to be valid, entries will need to have a paragraph or more discussing;
"Where gold is going and why". <===== NOTE !!!
---
ONLY about 38 hours to go before DEADLINE !
<;-)

TAA TAA TAAAAAAAAAAAAA, TAA TAA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !

Entries as of TUESDAY 11/9/04 at just about 10:10 Denver time !!!

OFFICIAL ENTRY LISTING

Listed in order of decreasing values !
----

$$$ $8,752.0 $$$ The Invisible Hand (11/6/04; 02:45:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 126118)

$$$$ $575.2 $$$$ Sprout (11/5/04; 15:19:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 126103)

$$$$ $499.0 $$$$ Caradoc (11/6/04; 04:35:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 126120)

$$$$ $467.0 $$$$ jenika (11/6/04; 05:55:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 126122)

$$$$ $456.5 $$$$ Gene (11/5/04; 11:03:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 126096)

$$$$ $454.5 $$$$ mackattack (11/6/04; 18:24:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 126127)

$$$$ $451.6 $$$$ mikal (11/5/04; 13:35:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 126099)

$$$$ $450.1 $$$$ Cometose (11/7/04; 13:14:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 126136)
$$$$ $450.0 $$$$ Lothar of the Hill People (11/5/04; 14:19:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 126101)
$$$$ $449.9 $$$$ slingshot (11/8/04; 16:12:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 126172)

$$$$ $448.8 $$$$ Toolie (11/7/04; 14:32:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 126137)

$$$$ $447.5 $$$$ Waverider (11/07/04; 01:23:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 126130)

$$$$ $446.3 $$$$ Sundeck (11/6/04; 04:20:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 126119)

$$$$ $445.2 $$$$ J-Bullion (11/8/04; 14:12:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 126167)

$$$$ $444.5 $$$$ DoubleEagle (11/8/04; 02:27:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 126152)
$$$$ $444.4 $$$$ Zhisheng (11/4/04; 10:56:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 126063)

$$$$ $443.2 $$$$ Rimh (11/9/04; 09:45:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 126188)

$$$$ $442.5 $$$$ Noble1 (11/5/04; 18:23:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 126110)

$$$$ $441.7 $$$$ Smeagol (11/5/04; 17:15:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 126105)

$$$$ $440.0 $$$$ shawnis (11/8/04; 20:28:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 126175)

$$$$ $439.6 $$$$ Rustee (11/5/04; 09:02:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 126086)

$$$$ $438.9 $$$$ Liberty Head (11/5/04; 21:37:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 126116)

$$$$ $435.5 $$$$ YGM (11/7/04; 09:39:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 126133)

$$$$ $434.5 $$$$ balzac (11/9/04; 09:58:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 126190)

$$$$ $433,3 $$$$ Shanti (11/8/04; 14:53:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 126169)

$$$$ $432.5 $$$$ John the Jute (11/9/04; 08:41:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 126187)

$$$$ $431.6 $$$$ servantHeart (11/5/04; 10:26:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 126092)

$$$$ $431.0 $$$$ DryWasher (11/4/04; 16:13:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 126074

$$$$ $429.1 $$$$ mudr (11/7/04; 21:59:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 126147)

$$$$ $427.0 $$$$ Clink! (11/7/04; 12:25:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 126135)

$$$$ $426.5 $$$$ Topaz (11/4/04; 16:13:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 126075)

$$$$ $422.3 $$$$ The Knife (11/5/04; 10:03:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 126089)

$$$$ $419.5 $$$$ Golden Lionheart (11/7/04; 17:13:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 126140)

$$$$ $000.0 $$$$ TomJIl (11/6/04; 16:21:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 126126)

===
<;-)

Looks like a breakout day today, followed by a pull back near weekend, then stronger Monday. US offensive to bring retaliation and general chaos. Regret that, but undeniably good for gold. Overall, we still want to "Spend ourselves rich, then borrow our way out of debt!" Gold for the short run, and for the long pull....gold!

Buongiorno!

I know I've already guessed, but when I read the rules today, I noticed I am missing a few parts. So, lest I have my winnings denied, I wish to repost, with my same guess, and make it legal.

>3) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
>(Such as $444.4)

$440.0 - I had stated it in hundredths. Sorry.

>7) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY (as this part MUST accompany the
>Price prognostication)
>--- In order for your entry to be valid, entries will need to
>have a paragraph or more discussing;
>"Where gold is going and why". <===== NOTE !!!

I think the dollar going down will make more and more of the public nervous. I think we are about to hit a period of slow-rising inflation over the period of years. Gold will top $1000.

I think I get your point re: association and the LBMA being the conscious spider in midst of the web.

As to the frustration on the new Goldproducts popping up,there was also the prospect of a new eurobullion coin having no value stamped on it,well,it would have been a nice addition (even if it would be made with Swiss Gold!).

The golden bird doesen't need a spiderweb,he has wings!

Gold is going higher, much higher than most people think. When I tell acquaintences that I expect gold to be higher than $1000 within the next four years, the response is invariably disbelief. When asked what they expect, they respond with a price consistant within the range of the last ten years. Rear view mirror vision.

The first panacea for a mismanaged nation is inflation of the currency; the second is war. Both bring a temporary prosperity; both bring a permanent ruin. But both are the refuge of political and economic opportunists.

- Ernest Hemingway

We have a grossly mismanaged nation. The question is not if we will depreciate fiat but by what rate. 70 trillion unfunded liabilities tells me the rate must accelerate soon. Someday "US dollar" will get its place alongside the Confederate, Weimar, and other currencies prefaced with "not worth a ..". My belief is 2005 will see an acceleration of current monetary debasement and therefore very good for gold and silver. How good depends on when cabal intervention tricks no longer work.

COMEX December '04 Gold Contract (GCZ04)
Open = $434.5 HIGH = $437.5 low = $433.3
SETTLEMENT = $436.2 CHANGE +$2.8
===
AND the "KING of the HILL" today is:
TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

Sir YGM (the former Yukon Gold Miner)
---
$$$$ $435.5 $$$$ YGM (11/7/04; 09:39:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 126133)
<;-)

I was reading Peter Petersen's 'Running on Empty' recently, and the story is even worse than the bare figure would indicate. The problem is that the two main future liabilities are Medicare, the cost of which is rising significantly faster than inflation, and Social Security which is index-linked. So, barring the fact that the official inflation figure underestimates the real one, deliberately inflating the dollar to try to weasel out of the liability just won't work to any significant effect.

C!

I'm also sure the unofficial unfunded liabilities gets the figures up to total insanity. Are we quasi-guaranteeing Fannie? That alone is impossible. Pension funds, FDIC, more impossible. I was reading the GATA dispatch of "Episodes of Hyperinflation" by Thayer Watkins. Sobering account of destitute governments printing themselves into oblivion. In every instance gold, if allowed to be possessed, would have been the only salvation.

Obviously Gold has been going up and is in a bull market. The cheap asset stage of the bull is over with 300 being taken out and now 433 being taken out too. The 433 level, 16 year old high, is the marker for this next stage bull market sequence.

Institutional money will start to pour into the Gold ETF's, the gold mutual funds will have strong inflows and by the end of this stage we should see growth in the number of gold funds out there. Smart money will be showing a little golden flash in their portfolios. This next leg will take us up to the old all time highs---850's range.

Then we back and fill, back and fill.

I am basing my 444 guess on a 3% breakout of 433 for the contest were we should see some possible settlement activity. Its my best guess.

Thanks!!!!!!!!!!!!!

But, t'would be far so better to have a "Queen" on a Monday than be a "King" on a tuesday (:-}>

If I was a mutual fund money market manager and my job was to make my clients money, and if I was greedy to get commissions based on my next quarter's performance.......
I'd .........
I'd..........
I'd ..........
I'd .............
have to take all the cash available to the fund ,
right now ,,,,,,,,,and
I'd buy up all the stocks that represent the HUI INDEX....

Excellent! I'm hoping you weren't the only one able to decipher the crux of that most important point of my post.

Getting back to coins for a minute, I'm glad you mentioned Big Phil. The mint made something like, what, 20 of those thousand ouncers? That's the better part of a tonne right there, and the mint had most of them pre-sold the moment they were struck and packaged in a velvet box. All I can say is I hope the mint continues to be the biggest factor in Austrian Gold sales.

I'm totally with you on your comment about face value on Gold in general. It really confuses the issue for a lot of people and continues to engender in their minds the unfortunate and inauspicious *associations* we were talking about earlier. Again, take Big Phil for example. I wonder how many casual observers will thinks it's value is equal to the 100,000 euro face value rather than something closer to the spot-based price (340,000 euro) I paid for mine? Ok, just kidding.... (it actually cost more.)
:-)

Truth be told, Big Phil probably wasn't the best example to use, because I'm sure that if we more carefully consider the nature of the fortunate few who will actually lay eyes on Big Phil and his 19 siblings, I'm sure we'll agree they won't be the kind of people who are unclear on the true matter of property in view. But the point certainly remains for the thousands of Gold newcomers who feast their eyes one the more accessible one-ounce cousins with face values of 2000 schillings (pre-euro mintage) or 100 euro.

Probably the primary thing that gives Gold bars their charm (if any) is the lack of any monetary face value. The only notions of *association* that the observer develops is that of hands-on and unambiguous ownership of the property in question.

You asked for a Eurpean Gold coin with no face value. Maybe someday we'll see it happpen. Until then, why not do what I do. Load up on piles of those nice jingly British Sovereigns. You'll get an old king or queen on one side circumscribed in Latin, and on the other side an iconic depiction of a dragon not having his best day under the hooves of an ill-armored St. George on horseback. (Hey, maybe that's where they originally got the Gold to mint the coins?? Acording to most legends, dragons were always much wiser about the affairs of savings and retirement planning than most people have been.) Anyway, getting back to the issue of no face value, there's nary a number to be found anywhere on the things, excpept for the date.

Make a good try at reassembling the entire dragon's hoard in your own vault, but always keep one in your pocket for a handy visual aid if you find yourself customarily talking to friends about money, economics, property, wealth, and Gold.

Gold. Get you some. Sovereigns! --- Aristotle

Where gold is going and why...

Seems a lot of us are thinking "where is the POG going and why".. when the question is just asking where it came from and where it is going, you might ask "who is buying and who is selling, what is being sold, and to whom? Usually as I recall, it comes out of the ground, and (lately) goes right back in- to a vault somewhere a Venezuelenno.

http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock/faq.htmlwith the Fed owning 40% of US Debt and the devaluation of th US $ going on the, (contrary to public knowledge) "Privately Owned Federal Reserve Bank" would be my first guess. Anyone should be able to figure out that if those who create and own wealth on/in 'Paper' choose to have it devalue in purchase power they would automaticaly look to Gold for protection plus profits to equalize or better the 'Paper' losses by devaluation.....As usual w/ CB's "Secrecy" is the byword......BTW...notice this site (DEBT CLOCK) calls that 40% as held by Fed & 'Other' Gov't Agencies...Well guess what the Fed is & always has been "PRIVATELY OWNED" so that leaves us with the question how much of the +40% do the 'Other Gov't Agencies own?....
I think I may answer that from my files later...(memory says Fed has about 30%)...But for now be assured the Fed would be the big player in the Gold Markets.....Bash Gold, Buy Gold, Devalue Fiat, Re-Value or let Markets re-Value Gold and presto a "Big Fix" all around!!!
This "Fix" could be the biggest play on words ever! And the biggest end run the world ever saw.....JMH (or misguided?) Opinion.......YGM

http://www.ratical.org/ratville/CAH/RRiraqWar.html
The above linked somewhat dated essay by William Clark is well worth reading because it ties the effort of the United States to prevent the sale of oil for euros, rather than dollars, to Global "Peak Oil" as the twin reasons behind the war in Iraq in a very understandable way.

I t is also interesting to see how well Mr. Clark's predictions have held up to date as well. Of course none of this is news to those of us who have been following the postings of Sir Black Blade on this forum.

In a more current essay titled "The Real Reasons Why Iran is the Next Target" by Mr. Clark, dated Monday, Oct. 11 2004, and available at the link listed below, he describes why he believes Iran may be the next war target for the United States in the on going struggle over oil.

http://cvilleindymedia.org/newswire.php?story_id=903≺int_page=true∈clude_comments=true

DryWasher.

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$446.90$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
It's all about the fall of the dollar! As it deteriorated, GOLD will rise in price! No abrupt rises, but a controlled upswing!!

http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Daily Gold Market Report has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.

---- closing market excerpts ----

Gold futures in New York closed at a 16-year peak on Tuesday, boosted by technical buying and increased speculative interest ahead of a U.S. Federal Reserve decision on interest rates on Wednesday.

COMEX division December gold futures climbed $2.80 to $436.20, after trading from $431.90 to $437.50 -- the highest mark for active futures since July 1988.

Estimated volume was 63,000 contracts.

"Technically, it is looking very strong," said Carl Birkelbach, president of Birkelbach Management Corp. in Chicago. "That $433.30 area in COMEX gold was an area that it was having trouble breaking above, and now that it's done that, there aren't any technical problems until about $500 or so."

Market talk of new gold-backed investment products in the pipeline for imminent launch also sparked speculative buying that kicked futures higher, said one long-time COMEX floor broker.

On a spot chart, gold prices ended the New York session above the $435 mark for the first since late 1988.

Dealers cited the sluggish tone of the U.S. dollar as the main buoying factor behind prices Tuesday. ...also .... anticipation ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest-rate decision due after Comex gold trading stops.

...many dealers argue that a 25 basis-point rise has already been "factored in" to prices.

Rising open interest in gold futures also spurred some buying interest, sources said, as it indicated the market has been successful attracting fresh buying interest as prices have climbed. Open interest is the number of futures contracts that haven't yet been fulfilled by delivery [...or, as the article should say, offset in the cash market with an opposing contract, as is more typically done by futures traders.--Randy's note].

-----(see url for access to full news, 24-hr international newswire)---

HEADLINES

New Gold And Commodity Exchange Formed In Dubai -- Global Custodian

Dollar's Slide Keeps Cloud Over U.S. Assets -- Reuters - Technology

Euro hits new high over dollar -- The Register-Guard

European policymakers fret over US dollar's slide -- Borsa Italiana - News

Austrian central bank to sell gold under new pact -- Borsa Italiana - News

Dominican Peso Strengthens Against Dollar -- Forbes - Business

Rubin Warns Dollar Decline Could Accelerate -- Sun-Sentinel

"Where gold is going and why".

Gold is going UP because:

1. Main stream financial press starting to comment on gold's rise.
2. Dollar going down since asian buyers reducing purchases.
3. All the props to hold up the dollar are being removed now that the elections are finished.
4. Real Estate refi market is over. The "house=ATM" era is over. Reality and "feeling poorer" will hurt spending & economy, and drive dollar lower.
5. Fed will raise rates 1/4% soon, and that will not be enough to help stabalize dollar. But it will hurt real estate, stocks, and bonds. Gold will go up because that is all that is left ot go up.

From our own Daily Market Report..

"On a spot chart, gold prices ended the New York session above the $435 mark for the first since late 1988."

It's the date that caught my eye. 1988....That was a few more than a few years ago. Will this also catch the eyes of the trend following futures speculators? Maybe.

http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh02924_2004-11-09_21-19-02_n09571570_newsmlNEW YORK, Nov 9 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise U.S. interest rates on Wednesday but even the prospect of higher dollar-denominated bond yields can do little to stem the tide of negative dollar sentiment...

The biggest weight on the dollar is the record U.S. current account deficit, a point likely to be underscored by the scheduled release of September trade data on Wednesday.

The fiscal 2004 budget deficit was $413 billion, or 3.6 percent of U.S. gross domestic product, according to Treasury Department data released Oct. 15.

"I don't see anything saving the dollar," said Bill Hoerter, trading desk manager with Alaron FX in Chicago.

-----(from url)----

If the U.S. were a member of the EU, it would cause much hand-wringing and get a tongue-lashing from its peers vis a vis the Stability and Growth Pact's 3% annual ceiling of budget deficits as a percentage of GDP. But since we're not bound to those treaties, interested international parties must simply vote with their feet (international portfolio shift).

Protect yourself from the consequences. Choose gold.

R.

Also from today's USAGold Report...

"Rising open interest in gold futures also spurred some buying interest, sources said, as it indicated the market has been successful attracting fresh buying interest as prices have climbed. Open interest is the number of futures contracts that haven't yet been fulfilled by delivery [...or, as the article should say, offset in the cash market with an opposing contract, as is more typically done by futures traders.--Randy's note]."

True hedgers will offset buying OR selling in the cash markets with contracts in Comex. Eventually these have to be offset, or rolled forward, again, in Comex. I'd guess that the rising open interest is speculative, although some positions, long or short, may be hedges against other investments.
Just for fun, I tried to speculate today on reasons why the POG might not go up...long term. Other than a monetary liquidity seizure..I couldn't think of much. We certainly have quite a list of reasons why the POG should rise. I guess the President's party affiliation doesn't amount to a pee hole in the snow. Either one will continue the deficit spending...give the people what they shout for...bread, circus and welfare...no matter what the cost.
I've been reading, recently, some opinions of why the war(s) spending is good for the economy. I tend to view things from a somewhat longer term basis than a month or so...I guess they spin anything..
rich

http://www.economeister.com/reg/popup/single_story.jsp?prod=114&ts=1100011980000&sn=1&banner=mainwireSnip:

NEW YORK (MktNews) - Cargo entering the U.S. in September and October overwhelmed ports, railways and trucks, gumming up real-time inventory deliveries in what marks the heaviest peak-shipping season ever, industry officials say.

By mid-October there were 94 ships idling around the ports of Long Beach and Los Angeles, the nation's gateway for most Asian goods, unable to discharge. The bottlenecks were two-thirds as severe as during the worst of the port lockout two years ago and could leave a misleading impression of slowing imports.

If anything, the trade gap would continue to balloon if undelivered goods were factored in to port data. Indeed, diversions away from southern California are generating record inbound volumes at other ports and are likely to widen the trade gap in September, and more so in
October and November as sea-lanes are cleared.

Despite support from a soft dollar, exports are more ambiguous.
There are complaints that ocean carriers, in their rush to return to schedule, are refusing all but the empty containers they need to bring in more consumer goods from Asia. Others report a substantial export surge.

This import season "has been much more aggressive, earlier and more severe than in prior years," said Capt. Manny Aschemeyer, executive director of the Marine Exchange of Southern California, which oversees vessel traffic in the region. "This peak season is also lasting longer."

But port congestion has reduced the tallies of imports. "It's not a total damning of the river, of course. It's more like watching a sluggish drain in your kitchen sink," he said.
**************
Misetich

The trade deficit keeps on ballooning higher - and higher

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll

Gold is slowly but surely see-sawing its price upward due, in large part, to the deterioration of the dollar, which results in a search elsewhere for security. Security is found in having gold.

I have a question for your consideration:

How much do you think the Barrick $1 billion bond offer (and Placer's equity offer) has to do with gold breaking above the $430 mark?

I'd like to hear some opinion on this?

Think about it. . . . . .

Chris Powell, what do you think?

http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh03206_2004-11-09_21-34-16_l09687503_newsmlGENEVA, Nov 9 (Reuters) - China is unlikely to relax controls that keep its currency tied closely to the U.S. dollar until after it manages a soft landing for its overheated economy, Hong Kong's chief central banker said on Tuesday.

Joseph Yam, chief executive of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, said Chinese officials were grappling with so many reforms designed to cool the overheated economy while edging it away from state control, they would be unlikely to embark on potentially destabilising currency reform soon.

"Even though flexibility in the renminbi exchange rate is the declared intention, I don't think you'll see it until after this soft landing is achieved because it's a long-term issue," he said, speaking at a university event in Geneva.

"There is too much on their plate at this point in time," he added.

Yam, who runs Hong Kong's de facto central bank, said he had no direct knowledge of plans under consideration by mainland China, only his experience as a central banker to draw on.

Yam cautioned that U.S. pressure on China to liberalise its currency regime, which keeps Chinese exports priced cheaply versus American rivals, might backfire if China were then to sell even a fraction of its huge dollar-denominated reserves.

"I think that sometimes the Americans are shooting themselves in the foot by putting pressure on China," he said.

If a fixed currency regime like China's became flexible, Chinese authorities would almost certainly begin to diversify their foreign exchange reserves, now held overwhelmingly in dollars.

With around $500 billion in U.S. currency reserves under Chinese ownership, and an additional $1.5 trillion held by other Asian central banks, even a small shift out of dollars could have an enormous impact on financial markets, he said.

------(see full article at url)-----

It's always good to listen in because Yam is one of the brighter stars in the CB galaxy.

For emphasis: ".....even a small shift out of dollars could have an enormous impact on financial markets..."

You surely understand why it is that monetary officials, for the most part, CANNOT say a positive word about buying gold. It's not necessarily that they want to quash gold or keep you away entirely, but rather that they know the market cannot orderly accommodate a positive official word on the matter. You, the prospective gold buyer, will have your gold and kind words too, but not until a little later when the price is so very much higher.

Meanwhile, the choice is yours -- to be one of the herd or to blaze your own Trail.

May I suggest the latter. Choose gold.

R.

You're not suggesting that they are preparing to cover some hedging that is well below water, are you? Of course they would never admit that. Or am I just cynical?

I won't miss the chance to win the Gold coin. LOL

I don't know if it matters one way or the other, but from your follow-up comments I'm not certain that my original comment was as intellegible (is "interpretable" a word?; if so, I choose the latter) as it could have been.

I tried to enhance (my polite way of saying "correct") the DowJones report by adding that part about futures being more typically offset in the cash market rather than by physical delivery, so when I said "cash market", by that I strictly meant the cash aspect of the exchage. Cash in, cash out. Cash settlement. Nothing but cash. Hence, instead of DowJones somewhat misleading comments about open interest representing those contracts that "haven't yet been fulfilled by delivery", I indicated that most were offset in the cash market.

Your following comments about activity of "true hedgers" brought immediately to mind that my comments regarding the cash market are probably highly prone to misinterpretation as equivalent to the spot physical market, where the "cash" implication (implying "metal today!") is generally a reference term distinct from the "futures" markets I was actually still referring to.

Like I said, I don't know if any of this matters, but I wanted to clarify my intended communciation there, if possible.

R.

From a purely uneducated standpoint I would say it's either to have cash to cover underwater Hedges (which I think they've done in other paper ways) or more like cash to aquire another Miner...Since the cost of Gold production is now so high and exploration so slow coupled with bringing a new mine to production time, they may be looking towards a takeover of another producer w/ proven reserves...If they can increase their reserves they'll have more yellow to bring forth yearly to cover CB Gold Loans....W/ Gold @ $430.+/- their stock may not look too appealing being so hedged.... Thus bonds and cash....JMO...FWIW...YGM

http://www.isn.ethz.ch/news/sw/details.cfm?ID=10112Snip: The election of Tabare Vazquez as Uruguay's president completes the hold of the democratic left over the continent's "southern cone" and represents the loss of Washington's last willing partner in the projected Free Trade Areas of the Americas (FTAA)�..

The election on 31 October of Tabare Vazquez as president of Uruguay confirms a political realignment towards the left has been taking place in South America during the past several years. With the victory of the Broad Front - a coalition of democratic socialists, communists, and former Tupamaro urban guerrillas - Vazquez completes the hold of the democratic left over the continent's "southern cone", which also includes Brazil, Paraguay, Chile, and Argentina. The major geostrategic consequence of Vazquez's election is the loss by the US of its last willing partner in the projected Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA), which is meant by Washington to create a hemispheric trading bloc dominated by the US�..

As is the case for all the left-of-center governments in the southern cone, the new administration in Montevideo will not face favorable conditions for realizing its welfare policies, which are essential for sustaining popular support. It will, however, join an emerging regional bloc that might be able to work cooperatively for economic development and integration, eventually fostering the desired social and economic results. The completion of left-of-center rule in the southern cone has the geostrategic significance of speeding up the drift towards multipolarity in world politics that has become evident in the aftermath of the US intervention in Iraq. In this case, US economic policy rather than its military posture has been responsible for a trend towards regionalism. (end snip)

Southern South America chooses self-determination over a dollar deluge. It looks like the hemispheric dollar has fallen well short of its goal. Some time back there was talk of a Mecosur currency, perhaps there will be more talk. Brazil has had some success in aligning devoloping nations in Africa toward bilateral trade agreements, as well as India and South Africa.

If the desired effect of massive dollar creation was to buy up the assets of the world utilizing free trade agreements, then this game may have run its course. We may have reached the point of saturation.

I believe there will be a little profit taking/sell off in the near term, that's why I'm guessing low. However, I believe the POG is going up, Up, UP, based on the musings I've seen posted here over the months. Thanks for all the enlightenment.

http://www.barrick.com/3_Hedging/in just reading/skimming Barrick financials, I see they've cleared 1.5 M oz in /04 from the /03 total of 15.5 M oz....
They have contracts w/ 19 counterparties w/ I believe an average price of $400.+ p/oz...What mystifies me is their statement that they do not borrow Gold....So is leasing Gold & selling it into the market (as w/ the Gold Carry Trade past) any different than borrowing in the long run...
It was leased and sold at one price and still has to be replaced (hopefully) at higher prices....Seems to me they don't go under til they stand still!!! So aquisitions as w/ dot com bubble are the order of the day????...Musing now...YGM

I see from over yonder your Brother and his Fishing boat are lost on BC coast and when the rest here know you'll have more prayers for his safe return.....I do hope you soon have good news......Respectfully...YGM

Just speculation, but if I had that kind of money, I'd use a lot of it to buy gold, so why shouldn't Barrick and Placer Dome?

As Ted Butler and others have observed, any mining company that wants to support the price of its product need only keep part of its cash in metal. If Barrick and Placer Dome are raising cash here to buy or develop mining properties, they'll get it back in metal. Even if Barrick means only to hasten the covering of its hedges, it's still good for gold and maybe a matter of survival for the company.

At least these cash-raising developments suggest that two big mining companies think that their sector is worth investing in. Let's watch what they do. If they attempt some acquisitions -- with cash and new share issuance, I suppose -- we'll know that they're really eager for metal.

Ooh-la-la, contest time! After spending most of the past two weeks in the penalty box for mixing little financial with a big doses of political, I must say-- Seems to be happening just about the way many of us thought that it might.

Now, a nice thing about having significant physical holdings in these two relevant metals (Au and Ag) is that it gives a feeling of leverage without the margin risk for temporary price failure.
Accordingly, let's request a few more chunky sessions in here, to approach that 440 area. Always fun to be optimistic with our gold price projections, don't you think so? Hello again, and good luck to all!

...thanks kindly Sir. Yes, his commercial fishing vessel hit a rock on Sunday night and sunk. Search and rescue have been extraordinary but to no avail to date. Your thoughts are appreciated.

Legolas (11/9/04; 20:49:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 126226)
I believe there will be a little profit taking/sell off in the near term, that's why I'm guessing low.
===
Not a problemo Sir Legolas --- BUT, your shot is a little bit lower as Sir Hoople had hit that mark before you !
<;-)

My thoughts and prayers are with you and your family. We will pray and hope for the safe return of your brother.
I have a son that operates a fishing boat in Alaska. I know the danger and risks that these crews face.
God bless, goldquest.

It's all in the dollar, as Jim Sinclair is fond of stating. Try as they may, TPTB have been trying to hold the dollar up by suppressing the gold price but the physical market is far too strong. It will be death by a thousand cuts, too many for them to stop the bleeding.

CG

TAA TAA TAAAAAAAAAAAAA, TAA TAA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ A "PRICE of GOLD" GUESSING CONTEST!! $$$$$$$$$$$$

We shall have a price guessing contest on the closing (Settlement price) of gold for the December Comex contract (GC4Z) on Monday, November 15, 2004, ---BUT all entries must be posted to the TableRound before Midnight on Wednesday, November 10th.

The POG Contest winner -- the closest price guess to the actual Settlement Price -- will receive a British Queen Victoria Sovereign (which may be seen at the following LINK)
http://www.usagold.com/gold/coins/BritVict.html

(YES, the coin that EVERYONE should have in their POCKET !) <;-)

These coins were Minted between 1871 and 1901, are of a Fineness of 0.917, with an Actual Gold Content of 0.2354 troy ounce.

There will be also be two runners-up prizes for the next closest prognostications --- each winning an one ounce Canadian Silver Maple Leaf.
----

THE RULES -- (We MUST have RULES !!) --- PLEASE READ !!

1) The Winner is the poster with the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX (most active) December 2004 Gold Contract (GC4Z) on the date of Monday, November 15, 2004.

2) Secret invisable "Rule".

3) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $444.4)

4) "Guesses" shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT BOX location AND enclosed in markers of "Dollar Signs" so as to be OFFICIAL !
(Such as $$$$$$444.4 $$$$$$$ )

5) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".

6) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes MIDNIGHT (24:00) on Wednesday, November 10, 2004.

7) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY (as this part MUST accompany the Price prognostication)
--- In order for your entry to be valid, entries will need to have a paragraph or more discussing;
"Where gold is going and why". <===== NOTE !!!
---
ONLY about 24 hours to go before DEADLINE !
<;-)

Where is gold going? Hopefully around .2354 troy ounces of Sovereign is going my way at the end of this competition. One can only hope!! But in the bigger picture gold is going exactly where it should. Slowly but steadily up as the big players unwind their dollar denominated holdings into hard assets, raw materials and the new players on the block, the euro, the dinar and of course gold. More will jump aboard the upwards wave and as gold enters the second phase of the bull some more serious upwards movement will commence. Hopefully not too soon'still need to accumulate more, but I trust that it also won't take too long - want to enjoy the fruits of my most wise investment choice sooner rather than later.

Could be just a coincidence (if you believe in coincidences regarding availability of precious metals), but it's at least "interesting" that one major dealer in precious metals is now filling orders for bags of junk silver by shipping two half bags. True, each customer has little to complain about since he's still getting $1,000 face value of 90% silver coins, but apparently the standard unit of measure isn't as available as it used to be.

Just a tiny marker along the Trail....

Caradoc

PS: If $432/433 was a resistance level for POG, it has been trampled over from both directions so thoroughly that today we're ready to go into the 440s but will probably see only a rise between 5.20 and 5.90. Even so, I suspect that we're about a month away from seeing $20 increases and $27 smash downs. Enjoy the ride!

POG will see $500 by year-end. It is the only reasonable outcome of the events surrounding the detiorating US economy. The days of fiat currency will be over sooner than many beleive. US$ is going BUST!

Thanks for the note. I picked this up this morning from another 'thread':

"So, essentially, it's U$Dollar Confiscation by Castro.

And, usually, only the most-valuable things get Confiscated."


What do you (anyone) make of this?

Where is going and why, hmmm. I thought gold was going to 1000 but it keeps meandering around 400. A little blow off here, a little blow off there, and its back to 375. Then oil shoots to 50 and were back to our highs for the last 8 yrs. It seems gold doesnt know where it wants to go, up today, down tomorrow. But I know where gold is going and why, its going in my pocket. You figure out why.

I believe gold will move to $450 range by the end of the year and stagnate there for around 6 months or so. After that, as a response to either a new invasion, or a similar event, it willl resume its upward track.

THIS Cuba thing is an advertisement as well as a piece in a manifestation of evidence around us globally.

THIS act by CUBA is not an isolated event ....Castro is connected to CHavez.....Castro is one of his mentors....
Chavez is from the Country down south that has all the OIL / I think that's Venezuala.... The administration tried dirty tricks to have him ousted.......It's happened on numerous occasions.How he escaped I don't know ...This toppling of International Leaders is a foot print of American Diplomacy for decades.....All that are familiar with history over the past 60 years are well aware of this and are fed up ...

Argentina , two months ago , in direct violation of and IMF Proscription bought and added to their currency reserves 4500 tonnes of GOLD......

CHINA has made a deal with one of these South AMerican countries (in the news this week) to use some of their dollars to lock up contracts on hard assets/ commodities.
Made a deal with IRAN TO DEVELOP OIL FIELDS.....
Iran announced softer stance on Nuclear enrichment ......so that the US doesn't go there........
to WAR OVER NUCLEAR ENRICHMENT ......

As long as the FED has the right to PRINT without Substantiating some value behind the dollar ,,the rest of the world is correct in asssessing such printing as COUNTERFIETING........and they have a right to PROTEST against the US and against US POLICY by PUBLICLY AND DEMONSTRABLY HAVING AN ANTI US DOLLAR POLICY IN THEIR COUNTRIES........

I'm sure there will be other demonstrations against the dollar and more selling of dollars because of the global perception that the US a la the FED is counterfieting and that the widespread use of dollars internationally extends far too much influence of the US via the RESERVE CURRENCY OF THE WORLD.....

Wasn't it SADAAM HUSSEIN who first declared that Iraq would no longer recieve dollars for Oil ......prior to being toppled ......

IF SOMEONE from ON HIGH said that the purpose for outlawing DOLLARS IN CUBA was a move to confiscate something of VALUE .........IT MIGHT BE SO ........
but I'd tend to believe that that statement was just good ole COUNTER INTELLIGENCE AT WORK .......for the sake of PUMPING the image of the Strong US DOLLAR for the ignorant and NAIVE listeners who heard that statement.............

I sincerely believe that the VALUABLE DOLLAR is going to be assaulted some more in the coming weeks and that it is going to bear out the adage that " Politicians and bankers make FIAT CURRENCIES approach their intrinsic worth over time by their policies." THE intrinsic value of the fiat paper money is 0.....

There's a PR battle going on now regarding the IMAGE OF THE DOLLAR and THE IMAGE OF THE US .....

THE ENEMY IS ATTACKING the IMAGE and LEGITIMACY of the US in attacking the currency of the US ....

THE DEFENDERS OF THE US AND THE DOLLAR are rebutting by making statements to the contrary and trying to put a PR WRINKLE on Cuba's actions that indicate that CASTRO did this to capture value.....

THE POLITICIANS have made diplomatic errors and the Bankers have made policy errors........
these errors undermine the strength of the currency and cause the US and the currency to have enemies and those who are undesirous of holding said currency ......
THE FIRST ENEMY of the currency were the MORONS WHO ADOPTED such PROBLEMATIC POLICIES DIPLOMATICALLY AND ECONOMICALLY.......(THOSE ENEMIES were the enemies within; BANKERS AND POLITICIANS)......THeir policies brought a second tier of enemies .........from without.......

WHEN YOU have a disease , you can medicate it , or you can eliminate the cause of the disease...that's right isolate and kill the cause of the disease......

ELIMINATE the GREED FACTOR THAT CAUSES PEOPLE TO WANT TO GO TO WASHINGTON to REPRESENT AMERICANS (LOBBYING /BRIBERY) and you are half way to winning the battle ........THEN GET RID OF THE FED .....and you pretty much eliminate the other half of the PROBLEM .......
HERE's a little LUCKY STRIKE EXTRA for all of yous.....

JOHN F KENNEDY and ABRAHAM LINCOLN have two things in common that are outstanding ........we all know that they were both assassinated........(why?)

THEY also both PRINTed MONEY or were embarking on A new MONETARY APPROACH without Fed Authority or INSTEAD of THE FED.........

THOSE TWO ENEMIES are the ENMIES of the AMERICAN PEOPLE ...
because they are making GLOBAL ENEMIES who are positioning themselves against the US and against the US people.....

IS this and accident or are these acts being orchestrated?????

Food for thought ..............

What is the long term consequence of these actions going to be ????

Interesting article this weekend by a man Named BARBERA on Financial Sense Newshour..........He had many an interesting thing to say about what we're getting ready to see globally on an economic basis and financially.......
Very ugly indeed ..........for the dollar and the US economy......

but there are ways to be working for yourself inside the current ........to protect yourself from the wealth dislocations that are coming.......

HIS TWO MAIN RECOMMENDATIONS ..........

a. foreign currencies
b. Gold, coins

Gold , GET YOU SOME!!!!!!!
It might be the safest place to harbor in the coming storm .

The GAB met with a group of Argentinians concerned with economic matters. Argentina has shed NINE ZEROS from its currency, in the last 60 years.

I was surprised to find that no one in the group of about twelve individuals, had any knowledge about a purchase over the past year, of 55 tons of gold by the Argentine Central Bank. They were as surprised to hear of this, as I was to find them ignorant of this event which has been much commented here.

All individuals in the group, immediately suspected a shady deal.

"Is the gold here, in Buenos Aires, or is it on deposit in London or New York? Because if it is on deposit outside Argentina, then it will never be Argentinian property."

Evidently, Argentinians have absolutely zero confidence in the integrity of their politicians. "We had a Central Banker who was voted the best central banker in the world, and - he was dismissed. Surely, he was dismissed because he was a good central banker. Pratt was his name."

Mobs of men in black suits - the financial types, you can spot them a mile away - here at our hotel. Argentina is being carved up, evidently.

Item: don't expect anything different from Argentina, than what you have been seeing during the last 50 years. Sad to report this.

The GAB

Very clever move by Fidel!

He took possession of the dollars in the hands of his people, which he can now use for settling international debts or for international transactions. For instance, buy more oil or repair his electricity generation facilities.

On the other hand, this is a good psy-war move against his opposition in Miami: now these Cubans have to change their dollars into Euros, in order to send funds to their relatives in Cuba. The Almighty Dollar is shown to be not so Almighty! There is an alternative to the Dollar, the Euro! Bingo! This is PSY-WAR which has the objective of demoralizing the enemy.

I don't know if Fidel thought this up, or if some advisor (most likely) suggested the move, but it seems quite effective, to me.

The GAB

http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html

http://www.usagold.com/cpm/goldhelp.html

Q. What makes USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals different from its competitors in terms of its interaction with clients?

MK. Our business philosophy allows us to take a more laid-back approach. We don't employ a room full of brokers spinning the phones day and night. We don't have multi-million dollar advertising expenses dictating what kind of advice we give clients. This is all by choice. I decided long ago that I didn't want the headaches that go with managing a large number of brokers and the support staff and facilities required. At the same time, we get hundreds of requests each month for introductory information packets. We do not make cold calls. We do not work mailing lists. We do not call people at all hours of the day or night. We do not use marketing and sales gimmicks -- leaders, bait and switch, and the rest of it. We primarily work with clients who have discovered us, like what they see, and want to form a long term relationship with a reputable and reliable gold firm.

Q. Does the "laid-back approach" limit your business?

MK. Yes and no. In the short run, "yes." In the long run, "no." We probably lose a few prospects to the aggressive companies which use hard-sell tactics but we will not be changing our client-friendly approach. We know that not every prospective investor is going to become a client of USAGOLD / Centennial. However, we know that the client who chooses us is likely to be the type of client we are accustomed to doing business with. We work with a large number of professional people and business owners -- active, retired and semi-retired. In fact, we work with clientele that span the economic spectrum and all walks of life. Getting back to how our approach sets us apart from our competitors, we get quite a few disgruntled high net worth clients who come to us after being run through the mill by some of the boiler-room operations I've referred to earlier. They are usually grateful that they found us.

Q. And finally, is there anything else you would like to share with us?

MK. Fundamentally, we believe that we are here to serve the client. Anyone who has done business with us will vouch for the courteous and professional service he or she has received. Our staff is carefully chosen and it shows. We get referrals on nearly a daily basis and are kept busy with strong repeat business. I would also like to call attention to the solid informational services offered at this website. We believe that any of our clients or visitors will find USAGOLD head and shoulders above anything else out there. I would encourage anyone attending this site to have a look around. We also publish a very handy e-mail newsletter available to prospective clients. Above and beyond that, the most important thing is the way we treat our clientele. From first inquiry through order fulfillment, we want to make the gold investing experience as pleasant and rewarding as possible. We have a large and satisfied clientele and that's the way we want to keep it.

Gold will continue is slow steady grinding accent.

The US dollar is showing signs of falling apart and I expect many record lows before it bottoms. American consumers and the US government are oblivious to deficit spending. America is racking up unsustainable trade deficits. We produce so little and trade so much paper for imported goods. In the coming years foreigners will begin to understand they are being had and run for the exit.

Federal Reserve intervenes in open market, injects $21.5 billion

With the fed funds market trading today near 1.94 percent in anticipation of today's meeting and likely shift in FOMC policy, the Fed's trading desk conducted open market operations, providing $12.5 billion in fresh cash to the money supply to bolster reserves of the nation's banks via two-day repurchase agreements (under 1.9%), and also provided at 1.96% another $9 billion via 14-day repos.

So on, and so on it goes and ever shall...

Choose gold.

R.

http://www.plim.org/01%20usa_dollar_devalua.htmShort & to the point...Snip..



Although many world authorities, such as the IMF (International Monetary Authority) and World Bank, said the dollar will be devalued. this has not been reported in the US media.

Effects of US Dollar decline

Formerly economic adviser to President Clinton Robert Reich said in Canada recently that the US dollar will collapse, which was not reported in the news. The devaluation of the U.S. dollar means a decline in the purchasing power of the dollar, which leads to a decline in living standard. For example, if the US dollar declines 40% and you had a million US dollars, the million dollars will only buy $600,000.00 worth of goods and services. You would have lost $400,000.00 in purchase power.

Any type of investment in dollars, such as saving accounts, saving bonds, annuities, pensions, etc., will suffer from this decline. In the coming decline of the dollar it will impoverish almost 50% of the white middle class and the other 40% will barely survive. Now between 5 -10% of Americans will prosper from this decline of the dollar because they have the knowledge of how to protect their asset........Cont'd

http://sg.biz.yahoo.com/041110/15/3oel8.htmlExcerpt....

We've got a situation where the mined production of gold is going to be declining for the foreseeable future," he said.

According to London-based precious metals market consultant GFMS Ltd., global mine production in 2003 remained flat about 2,590 tons.

While there are pockets of new supply emerging in countries like Russia and China, Hambro said global output will inevitably suffer from a lack of exploration.

"One of the big changes in the mining sector as a whole has been a significant cut (in) exploration expenditure, which is obviously reducing the probability of finding new projects to exploit," he explained.

Thus, gold reserves are increasingly being mined at a faster rate than they are being replaced, Hambro said.

"For example, (Newmont Mining Corp.) has to find seven million ounces of gold a year just to stand still; in order to grow, they've got to (increase reserves) more than that," he said of the world's largest producer.

The same is true of other top producers, such as South Africa's AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. (AU), Hambro said.

"You don't find seven million ounce gold mines every day," he said.

Prospect Of Falling Central Bank Sales "Very, Very Exciting"

****This plays into Barrick Bond Issue having more to do with aquisitions than Hedges, or both....YGM

First post here so bear with me as I'm not nearly as well-read as some of the regulars.

I see gold continuing its rise, how high I dare not guess.
Recently, gold has been following the dollar very closely; one article I read whose link I have lost stated that the correlation between the dollar and gold's spot has been about 0.9. To state in simpler terms, for a 5% drop in the dollar, gold has risen 5%. The article said that this high correlation between the dollar and gold has only been seen once before, somtime in the 70's. Looking at gold's price in Euros and Canadian dollars (yes, I live north of the border) we see very little change for about a year now. So in this respect gold has been trading like a currency of late.

As such I believe that in the short term (although not necessarily right away) gold will see a backing off in price as the dollar has a minor strengthening. It will be short-lived as the value of the dollar erodes to where it should be, 0, sending PoG to the heavenly levels it belongs. Eventually the rest of the currencies in the world that are not backed by hard assets will follow.

This is, of course, all pure speculation on my part and is mostly a gut reaction rather than a result of careful analysis or in-depth study. Either way, the collapse of the US dollar is imminent or happening. What else can you expect with deficits averaging $1.6 billion a day, and consumers who spend $1.04 for every $1 they earn?

Here's to the lovely yellow metal.

J

Having foolishly missed pilgrims_gold's prediction and duplicating it, I wish to revise my prediction. Apologies all around.

J

Join in anytime !
<;-)

TAA TAA TAAAAAAAAAAAAA, TAA TAA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !

Entries as of WEDNESDAY 11/10/04 at just about 10:07 Denver time !!!
ONLY about FOURTEEN HOURS to go BEFORE ENTRY DEADLINE !!!!!


OFFICIAL ENTRY LISTING

Listed in order of decreasing values !
----

$$$ $8,752.0 $$$ The Invisible Hand (11/6/04; 02:45:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 126118)

$$$$ $575.2 $$$$ Sprout (11/5/04; 15:19:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 126103)

$$$$ $499.0 $$$$ Caradoc (11/6/04; 04:35:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 126120)

$$$$ $467.0 $$$$ jenika (11/6/04; 05:55:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 126122)

$$$$ $456.5 $$$$ Gene (11/5/04; 11:03:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 126096)

$$$$ $454.5 $$$$ mackattack (11/6/04; 18:24:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 126127)

$$$$ $451.6 $$$$ mikal (11/5/04; 13:35:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 126099)

$$$$ $450.1 $$$$ Cometose (11/7/04; 13:14:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 126136)
$$$$ $450.0 $$$$ Lothar of the Hill People (11/5/04; 14:19:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 126101)
$$$$ $449.9 $$$$ slingshot (11/8/04; 16:12:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 126172)

$$$$ $448.8 $$$$ Toolie (11/7/04; 14:32:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 126137)

$$$$ $448.1 $$$$ Buongiorno! (11/9/04; 10:25:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 126196)

$$$$ $447.5 $$$$ Waverider (11/07/04; 01:23:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 126130)

$$$$ $446.9 $$$$ HOOSIER GOLDBUG (11/9/04; 15:27:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 126211)

$$$$ $446.3 $$$$ Sundeck (11/6/04; 04:20:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 126119)

$$$$ $445.2 $$$$ J-Bullion (11/8/04; 14:12:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 126167)

$$$$ $444.5 $$$$ DoubleEagle (11/8/04; 02:27:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 126152)
$$$$ $444.4 $$$$ Zhisheng (11/4/04; 10:56:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 126063)
$$$$ $441.1 $$$$ makcumka (11/10/04; 06:27:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 126242)
$$$$ $444.0 $$$$ Shapur (11/9/04; 13:22:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 126204)

$$$$ $443.2 $$$$ Rimh (11/9/04; 09:45:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 126188)

$$$$ $442.5 $$$$ Noble1 (11/5/04; 18:23:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 126110)

$$$$ $441.7 $$$$ Smeagol (11/5/04; 17:15:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 126105)

$$$$ $440.8 $$$$ Shermag (11/9/04; 11:36:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 126199)

$$$$ $440.0 $$$$ shawnis (11/8/04; 20:28:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 126175)

$$$$ $439.8 $$$$ Golden Era (11/10/04; 05:29:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 126239)

$$$$ $439.6 $$$$ Rustee (11/5/04; 09:02:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 126086)

$$$$ $439.2 $$$$ Goldendome (11/9/04; 21:38:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 126230)

$$$$ $438.9 $$$$ Liberty Head (11/5/04; 21:37:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 126116)
$$$$ $438.8 $$$$ Rocky (11/9/04; 17:52:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 126218)

$$$$ $438.2 $$$$ glockmaster19 (11/9/04; 16:05:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 126213)

$$$$ $437.7 $$$$ Canuck Gold (11/9/04; 22:40:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 126234)

$$$$ $437.5 $$$$ Felix the Cat (11/9/04; 19:53:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 126222)

$$$$ $436.5 $$$$ pilgrims_gold (11/10/04; 06:12:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 126241)

$$$$ $436.0 $$$$ killerjay_47 (11/10/04; 10:06:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 126253)

$$$$ $435.5 $$$$ YGM (11/7/04; 09:39:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 126133)

$$$$ $434.5 $$$$ balzac (11/9/04; 09:58:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 126190)

$$$$ $433,3 $$$$ Shanti (11/8/04; 14:53:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 126169)

$$$$ $433.0 $$$$ Gondolin (11/10/04; 03:13:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 126237)

$$$$ $432.5 $$$$ John the Jute (11/9/04; 08:41:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 126187)

$$$$ $432.0 $$$$ TheJuniorMiner (11/10/04; 08:55:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 126248)

$$$$ $431.6 $$$$ servantHeart (11/5/04; 10:26:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 126092)

$$$$ $431.0 $$$$ DryWasher (11/4/04; 16:13:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 126074

$$$$ $429.5 $$$$ The Hoople (11/9/04; 12:08:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 126200)
$$$$ $429.4 $$$$ Legolas (11/9/04; 20:49:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 126226)

$$$$ $429.1 $$$$ mudr (11/7/04; 21:59:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 126147)

$$$$ $427.0 $$$$ Clink! (11/7/04; 12:25:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 126135)

$$$$ $426.5 $$$$ Topaz (11/4/04; 16:13:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 126075)

$$$$ $422.3 $$$$ The Knife (11/5/04; 10:03:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 126089)

$$$$ $419.5 $$$$ Golden Lionheart (11/7/04; 17:13:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 126140)

$$$$ $000.0 $$$$ TomJIl (11/6/04; 16:21:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 126126)

===
<;-)

http://www.usagold.com/gold-price.htmlLook at it this way. For the past four years, some people have been sidelined as often as not by the thought that they've already missed the boat whenever they tune in and see that gold has enjoyed a price run-up. However, time and time again we see that these attention-getting "paralyzing peaks of the day" become shortly thereafter the woulda-coulda-shoulda entry point that sidelined investors yearn for as they find themselves yet again paralyzed by the next higher peak of the day in our continuing saga as the world transitions out of the international-reserve-dollar regime.

One look at the charts will lead an objective witness to this current period of history-in-the-making to admit that FOA was right, and that truly we cannot even begin to fathom how high the price of physical gold will run as the books are all rebalanced and rewritten.

Please, for the sake of your family and your own future financial well being, hear me now. If you haven't already, diversify your holdings with gold, and do it on a level commensurate with your understanding of the unfolding socio-political and economic forces now at work. Don't wait for higher prices ahead, serving only to make you regret further your inaction of the past.

Like any mountian, there are many possible views available, and many ways to discuss getting to the top, but the reality is that there is only ONE way for you to get there, and that is to BEGIN the process. Sure it's tough, but isn't that always the nature of action? It is always easier just to look and to talk and to simply marvel at the others who are already ahead owing solely to their own firm commitment to begin to take action.

Help is as easy as a toll free call away.
1-800-869-5115 (dial extention 100 -- for the friendly guy manning the trading desk)

Why the steady drumbeat? Because there are new arrivals every day that need to hear what many of you here already know.

R.

http://www.barrick.com/3_Financials/Your question..."How much do you think the Barrick $1 billion bond offer (and Placer's equity offer) has to do with gold breaking above the $430 mark?"

Looking at pages 23 & 24 of Barrick's most recent quarterly report gives me the impression they're really sweating the prospect of higher gold prices and gold lease rates negatively affecting their hedge book mark-to-market. The bond cash will probably be used to accelerate their buyback program. This will be bullish for gold as it occurs.

Also keep in mind that Barrick has some covenents in their lease terms that specify..... "Our trading agreements with our counterparties do provide for early close out of certain transactions in the event of a material negative change in our ability to produce gold for delivery under our hedging agreements, or a lack of gold market, and for customary events of default such as covenant breaches, insolvency or bankruptcy. The significant financial covenants are:
Barrick must maintain a minimum consolidated net worth of at least US$2 billion � currently, it is US$3.5 billion.
Barrick must maintain a maximum long-term debt to consolidated net worth ratio of 1.5:1 � currently, it is under 0.25:1. "

I don't think that Barrick will be in the market for aquisitions, more likely they will be selling assets to raise cash.

While this is only speculative I remember when Shell Oil fessed up and admitted they had vastly overstated proven oil reserves. Their stock took a huge hit and analysts were shaken at whether this could be just the tip of the iceberg. (I personally believe it was) If Barrick were to be fudging gold deposits to stay in loan covenant agreements I would think they'd know full well the ramification to the gold market. All estimated gold deposits would be scrutinized. Hedgebooks would become incredibly toxic. Little observed yet duly noted is how much the POO has went up since the Shell announcement. That corresponding rise in POG would have to be calamitous to a few hedgebooks. If I remember correctly Barrick did report decreased gold production and blamed it on unusual events. My guess is a billion dollars of bonds buys some time. I don't see this as an optional loan, but one of necessity. Whether it is to protect the hedgebook a while longer or to scuttle it as quickly as possible I think there is a gold Hubbert's Peak coming.

Gold is getting jumpy. It is a war zone. Swings only to get bigger.

Although the long term decline seems certain, I don't see a "crash" but rather a slow up and down movement on the Comex. Remember the Comex is a paper price that may or may not have very much correlation with the true value of gold. One thing is certain you must diversify your asset into Hard assets such as gold, property and other investments that will track the fall of the dollar. I don't expect any sudden moves by the goverment until after the inauguration of President Bush. After that it is anybodies guess as to what will happen. Clearly it is evident that the current monetary system is in its death throes and something will have to be done. Until then Gold is the thing to buy. White Hills

We should see a little upside tomorrow and perhaps Friday. Then begins the struggle to suppress the paper price before options expiry (on the 23rd I think); a tradition I don't like. Net efect from today till Monday: not much or perhaps down a bit. $$$$ 434.3 $$$$

FWIW I expect something in the 4-teens within two weeks.
Then we resume the unstoppable seesaw march up. Think 450+ for Christmas.

Gold. Its a good Tradition!

Tevye

FED stayed behind the curve again today, and refused to acknowledge rising inflation, and made no mention of the trade of fiscal deficits. Also the war in Iraq continues on, with a violent new phase. Al Greenspan will be retiring soon, and will probably be replaced by a Bush money pumper willing to support the status quo and a raid on the social security fund!


All conditions remain excellent for gold!

http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/press/monetary/2004/20041110/default.htmHere is the FOMC statement:

Release Date: November 10, 2004

The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to raise its target for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 2 percent.

The Committee believes that, even after this action, the stance of monetary policy remains accommodative and, coupled with robust underlying growth in productivity, is providing ongoing support to economic activity. Output appears to be growing at a moderate pace despite the rise in energy prices, and labor market conditions have improved. Inflation and longer-term inflation expectations remain well contained.

The Committee perceives the upside and downside risks to the attainment of both sustainable growth and price stability for the next few quarters to be roughly equal. With underlying inflation expected to be relatively low, the Committee believes that policy accommodation can be removed at a pace that is likely to be measured. Nonetheless, the Committee will respond to changes in economic prospects as needed to fulfill its obligation to maintain price stability.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Alan Greenspan, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Ben S. Bernanke; Susan S. Bies; Roger W. Ferguson, Jr.; Edward M. Gramlich; Thomas M. Hoenig; Donald L. Kohn; Cathy E. Minehan; Mark W. Olson; Sandra Pianalto; and William Poole.

In a related action, the Board of Governors unanimously approved a 25 basis point increase in the discount rate to 3 percent. In taking this action, the Board approved the requests submitted by the Boards of Directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago, St. Louis, Minneapolis, and Kansas City.

----(at url)----

Consider, if the dollar were "strong", rates would not be rising. And more to the point, rates raises won't bring strength either. "Strength" per se comes from structural elements of the nation's economy and from having its fiscal house in good order. Higher rates are in this case more properly seen as a compensating enticement for others to continue holding the dollar bravely (or naively) in the face of impending depreciation. In the mainstream media this is pitched positively as an inflation-fighting tool to an audience that too often sadly tries to interpret that device as a sign of imminent currency strength. Structurally, however, the U.S. is not in a position to deliver that package.

Onward and downward for the dollar it is.

Choose gold.

R.

As the invisible hand of the corporate oligarchs leads the country to ruin and Bush does for Social Security what Reagan did for energy conservation the trickle of dollar conversions will tuns into flood and gold will soar.

http://sg.biz.yahoo.com/041110/15/3oel8.htmlYGM: The second part of your link needs attention as well.

Where is the 500 tons per annum going to come from? They could of said the limit would be put up to 1000 tons per year and it would not make a hill of beans difference.

So who has announced gold sales within the agreement so far? I've heard Belgium and Austria partaking so far. Well of the markof 500 tons per year.

Swiss sales of 1300 tons draws to a close sometime in March /05

The Central Banks role of talking down the price of gold may be going to the wayside unless they buck up with solid commitments to the WA II.

Is this the line in the sand?

http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Daily Gold Market Report has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.

---- closing market excerpts -----

Gold futures up in after-hours trading

Gold futures strengthened in after-hours trading Wednesday, but indexes for the metals sector remained lower after the Federal Reserve did the expected in raising U.S. interest rates to 2 percent, and signaled that further rate hikes can be expected.

Following the news, gold for December delivery climbed as high as $435.30. The Comex contract had closed out the regular session -- ahead of the Fed decision -- with a $1.70 loss at $434.50.

From here, gold may see some profit taking, but for the longer term,"investors will be lining up to buy dips," said John Person, president of National Futures Advisory Service.

Earlier Wednesday, the dollar fell to a fresh record low against the euro as a government report showing a smaller U.S. trade deficit only encouraged a fresh round of buying of Europe's shared currency.

"While this morning's [U.S.] trade number ($51.6 billion in September) was a little softer than expected, it still points to a worrisome deficit that the gold market receives support from," said Peter Grandich, editor of The Grandich Letter.

Looking ahead, John Stafford, editor of Strafford's Investment Strategy Letter, set out a short-term target range on gold at $450 to $500, "perhaps" setting the stage for a $1,000-an-ounce price by the early 2010s or sooner.

"The U.S. dollar is bound to lose at least 90 percent of its PPV (purchasing power value) by 2042," he said. "This is set in cement, and is as a result of deliberate [Fed] policies," he said.

Many analysts expect gold prices to continue their climb, but they warned traders to be wary of a high degree of volatility along the way.

Elsewhere on the metals market Wednesday, the direction was lower. In equities, metals mining shares lost ground after ending Wednesday's session on a mixed note.

-----(see url for access to full news, 24-hr international newswire)----

http://www.mineweb.net/sections/gold_silver/389569.htmHEADLINE: Dubai's new exchange promises
By: Rhona O'Connell

10-NOV-04 LONDON (Mineweb.com) -- More electronic trading is on its way in the precious metals and other commodity markets. While London is the centre of the world's physical and Over the Counter market, the established futures Exchanges for gold contracts are around the world in New York (COMEX), Tokyo (TOCOM) and the Istanbul Gold Exchange. ... And now the Gulf is about to establish its presence. There are a number of very determined players in Dubai, intent on building the emirate's position in any number of markets, but in the commodities in particular. There are dealers sitting in the Gulf who have every intention of challenging London for supremacy.

Dubai, already responsible for 20% of the world's physical trade in gold (and aiming for a much higher market share in the medium term), is to establish a home for gold futures and options trading.

The Dubai Government this week announced the formation of the Dubai Gold and Commodity Exchange (DGCX), with a view to facilitating the trade of gold and commodities.

...Given the size of the physical market that passes through Dubai there is a logical synergy between the concept of a futures market, to enable hedging transactions and the long-standing close working relationship between India and Dubai means that this is a natural partnership. The establishment of a commodities exchange is a logical development in the series of initiatives that the government has been rolling out as part of the drive to establish Dubai as one of the world's key trading and business centres...
[R. note: I can think of some who might contestibly argue the validity of the logic being claimed here in the article.]

The next point of interest will be to see how the contracts are designed and their fungibility with other exchanges around the world � including Shanghai, which at present is only trading in physical gold, but which is planning to develop futures contracts.

So Dubai, City of Gold, continues to carve its place at the commodity markets� table. No doubt there are plenty more fresh initiatives to follow as the local gold market players follow their determination to rival London.

-----(from url)-----

The concluding remarks beg the all-important question, is the intent to work WITH London, or against them.

If it is the later case, the delicate game ends sooner as the confidence spell is broken. If one set of papers in Dubai is not convertible directly and easily into another set of papers in London, how can any rational person accept the claim that either one of them are "good as gold"?

Physical gold demand ramps up in response to paper losing ground in its long battle for integrity.

R.

Imho the immediate and long term POG may be more influenced by investor sentiment than any fundamentals concerning supply and demand. These (fears), caused by so many outside concerns, have been supporting gold and may be enough to trigger some serious speculative money to buy (in the paper market). I wish I knew how much physical is changing hands but such numbers (and the specific players) are hard to find. When/if this serious speculation occurs, the POG may stop lollygagging between the high 300s and the low to mid 400s and make a noteworthy upside move. But the very long term outlook is both up and down, with higher highs and higher lows. Just one poor man's opinion.

COMEX December '04 Gold Contract (GCZ04)
Open = $437.8 HIGH = $438.1 low = $432.8
SETTLEMENT = $434.5 CHANGE -$1.7
===
AND the "KING of the HILL" today is:
TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

Sir Balzac (who hit it right on the nose !) <;-)

Very difficult to hit that MOVING target after AG spoke !
$$$$ $434.5 $$$$ (11/9/04; 09:58:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 126190)

it's all in the deteriorating $...though the cappers are still at it in gold.......You know it's just a matter of time when the Columbians will issue peso bonds to be paid back in U.S. Dollars.
Bowing
Blessings to the forum and our Host
goldenpeace

With a calm confidence I believe that gold will move higher based on the invaluable resource that I have here at this mighty oaken table. Occassionally that confidence becomes an exuberance much as I am experiencing now. When that occurs I have to brace myself for a correction. Therefore I feel that there may be some short term consolidation before moving on upward. Besides that I wanted to just one time make my guess lower than Sir Topaz.
Tranquility Base here
The eagle has landed

Where is gold going and why?
Except for the jewelry and industrial crowd, gold is going to those that see the Fiat thing is off the rails.
The fiat thing is outside of the textbook rules, outside of the farthest reaches by far of John Law. Outside all comprehendable numbers. Infinite debt is on the horizon and the central banks are not blinking.............yet.
Between a rock and a hard place, the central bankers, are on a wing and a prayer, but I am guessing the prayer part is missing.
Do they even have a prayer?
And, that is the.......why.

I recall some time ago seeing a chart of the Dow over 30 yrs which shows a picture that you never get to see anywhere. Does anyone know a site that I can go to that has the dow back that far, most i've found only go back 5 to 10 years. Thanks in advance if anyone can assist.

TAA TAA TAAAAAAAAAAAAA, TAA TAA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !

Entries as of WEDNESDAY 11/10/04 at just about 18:30 Denver time !!!

ONLY about FIVE and one-half (5 1/2) HOURS to go BEFORE ENTRY DEADLINE !!!!!


OFFICIAL ENTRY LISTING

Listed in order of decreasing values !
----

$$$ $8,752.0 $$$ The Invisible Hand (11/6/04; 02:45:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 126118)

$$$$ $575.2 $$$$ Sprout (11/5/04; 15:19:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 126103)

$$$$ $499.0 $$$$ Caradoc (11/6/04; 04:35:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 126120)

$$$$ $467.0 $$$$ jenika (11/6/04; 05:55:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 126122)

$$$$ $456.5 $$$$ Gene (11/5/04; 11:03:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 126096)

$$$$ $454.5 $$$$ mackattack (11/6/04; 18:24:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 126127)

$$$$ $452.7 $$$$ Dollar Bill (11/10/04; 17:58:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 126272)

$$$$ $451.6 $$$$ mikal (11/5/04; 13:35:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 126099)

$$$$ $450.1 $$$$ Cometose (11/7/04; 13:14:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 126136)
$$$$ $450.0 $$$$ Lothar of the Hill People (11/5/04; 14:19:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 126101)
$$$$ $449.9 $$$$ slingshot (11/8/04; 16:12:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 126172)

$$$$ $448.8 $$$$ Toolie (11/7/04; 14:32:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 126137)

$$$$ $448.1 $$$$ Buongiorno! (11/9/04; 10:25:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 126196)

$$$$ $447.5 $$$$ Waverider (11/07/04; 01:23:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 126130)

$$$$ $446.9 $$$$ HOOSIER GOLDBUG (11/9/04; 15:27:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 126211)

$$$$ $446.3 $$$$ Sundeck (11/6/04; 04:20:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 126119)

$$$$ $445.2 $$$$ J-Bullion (11/8/04; 14:12:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 126167)

$$$$ $444.5 $$$$ DoubleEagle (11/8/04; 02:27:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 126152)
$$$$ $444.4 $$$$ Zhisheng (11/4/04; 10:56:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 126063)
$$$$ $441.1 $$$$ makcumka (11/10/04; 06:27:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 126242)
$$$$ $444.0 $$$$ Shapur (11/9/04; 13:22:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 126204)

$$$$ $443.2 $$$$ Rimh (11/9/04; 09:45:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 126188)

$$$$ $442.5 $$$$ Noble1 (11/5/04; 18:23:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 126110)

$$$$ $441.7 $$$$ Smeagol (11/5/04; 17:15:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 126105)

$$$$ $440.8 $$$$ Shermag (11/9/04; 11:36:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 126199)

$$$$ $440.0 $$$$ shawnis (11/8/04; 20:28:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 126175)

$$$$ $439.8 $$$$ Golden Era (11/10/04; 05:29:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 126239)

$$$$ $439.6 $$$$ Rustee (11/5/04; 09:02:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 126086)

$$$$ $439.2 $$$$ Goldendome (11/9/04; 21:38:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 126230)

$$$$ $438.9 $$$$ Liberty Head (11/5/04; 21:37:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 126116)
$$$$ $438.8 $$$$ Rocky (11/9/04; 17:52:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 126218)

$$$$ $438.5 $$$$ White Hills (11/10/04; 11:52:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 126260)

$$$$ $438.2 $$$$ glockmaster19 (11/9/04; 16:05:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 126213)

$$$$ $437.7 $$$$ Canuck Gold (11/9/04; 22:40:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 126234)

$$$$ $437.5 $$$$ Felix the Cat (11/9/04; 19:53:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 126222)

$$$$ $437.0 $$$$ innerline (11/10/04; 11:35:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 126259)

$$$$ $436.5 $$$$ pilgrims_gold (11/10/04; 06:12:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 126241)

$$$$ $436.0 $$$$ killerjay_47 (11/10/04; 10:06:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 126253)

$$$$ $435.5 $$$$ YGM (11/7/04; 09:39:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 126133)

$$$$ $435.0 $$$$ Camel (11/10/04; 14:16:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 126264)

$$$$ $434.5 $$$$ balzac (11/9/04; 09:58:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 126190)

$$$$ $434.3 $$$$ Tevye (11/10/04; 12:36:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 126261)

$$$$ $433.8 $$$$ R Powell (11/10/04; 15:50:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 126268)

$$$$ $433,3 $$$$ Shanti (11/8/04; 14:53:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 126169)

$$$$ $433.0 $$$$ Gondolin (11/10/04; 03:13:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 126237)

$$$$ $432.5 $$$$ John the Jute (11/9/04; 08:41:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 126187)

$$$$ $432.0 $$$$ TheJuniorMiner (11/10/04; 08:55:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 126248)

$$$$ $431.6 $$$$ servantHeart (11/5/04; 10:26:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 126092)

$$$$ $431.0 $$$$ DryWasher (11/4/04; 16:13:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 126074

$$$$ $429.5 $$$$ The Hoople (11/9/04; 12:08:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 126200)
$$$$ $429.4 $$$$ Legolas (11/9/04; 20:49:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 126226)

$$$$ $429.1 $$$$ mudr (11/7/04; 21:59:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 126147)

$$$$ $427.0 $$$$ Clink! (11/7/04; 12:25:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 126135)

$$$$ $426.5 $$$$ Topaz (11/4/04; 16:13:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 126075)

$$$$ $424.2 $$$$ Tranquility Base (11/10/04; 17:50:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 126271)

$$$$ $422.3 $$$$ The Knife (11/5/04; 10:03:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 126089)

$$$$ $419.5 $$$$ Golden Lionheart (11/7/04; 17:13:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 126140)

$$$$ $000.0 $$$$ TomJIl (11/6/04; 16:21:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 126126)

===
<;-)

U.S. trade gap shrinks to $51.6 billion

By Rex Nutting, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 10:17 AM ET Nov. 10, 2004

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - A strong euro and a strong hurricane helped cut the U.S. trade deficit by 3.7 percent to $51.6 billion in September.

Imports fell 0.8 percent to $149 billion while exports increased 0.8 percent to a record $97.5 billion, the Commerce Department estimated Wednesday�.

Despite higher prices, the nation's bill for imported crude oil fell to $11.4 billion because imports were disrupted for a time by a powerful hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico.

The trade deficit with the European Union declined 20 percent to $7.7 billion, while the gap with euro countries plunged 29 percent to $5.7 billion. The value of the euro has strengthened against the dollar, reducing the relative competitiveness of European goods.

Meanwhile, the trade gap with China widened to a record $15.5 billion behind record imports of $18.4 billion.

Economists polled by CBS MarketWatch were expecting, on average, a trade gap of $53.8 billion.

The trade report helped propel the euro briefly above $1.30 for the first time.

"The underlying trends here remain unfavorable but the data from recent months suggest import growth is slowing a bit more than exports," said Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist for High Frequency Economics.

The trade gap in August was revised lower to $53.5 billion from $54 billion earlier. The deficit averaged $51.9 billion per month in the third quarter.

The increase in U.S. exports was largely driven by foods and feeds, and industrial materials, including soybeans, organic chemicals, gold and plastics. Exports of capital goods also increased, especially high-tech gear like computers and semiconductors�

Last pull back to help out the shorts. Then the rocket will be up as funds turn bullish.

http://www.futuresource.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=DJY&o=&a=M&z=800x550&d=HIGH&b=bar&st=There's your chart and it's a beauty .....very telling looking at it in this light.

FINALLY the Hobbits have come to an AGREEMENT !
They have decided that I should enter their "AGREEMENT" number in the POG contest ! They concurred that Sir Smeagol is a good "Trail GUIDE" and that Sir Noble1 is always near to my thinking, SOOO, they determined that they should be near those numbers, soooo after a number of flips of the (golden) coin, they chose $442.1 --- THAT is "why" I am submitting that number in the POG Contest !
<;-)

Gold will go where it always goes - carrying wealth into the future. It is the only means of transporting wealth that can be relied upon to work in the dimension of time. Measured against other real assets, it will continue to slowly rise and fall, as it has for millenia. Measured against fiat currency, it will continue to add zeroes, as it always has.

In the short run, meaning Monday, I'm hoping for a small correction to hit my target. That will gain me a freebie bit of metal, and the opportunity to convert more hard-earned wealth into a time-portable form.

My enthusiasm for gold is only excelled by my wife's positive outlook for gold. She says that gold will continue to go up and that the winning guess for the contest is $439.40, and dagnabit, that's what i'm guessing!!!! And yes, if she is right, she will get the coveted prize!

http://www.tax-news.com/asp/story/story.asp?storyname=17890New Dubai Gold and Commodities Exchange Scheduled For 2005
by Lorys Charalambous, Cyprus, Tax-News.com, November 10, 2005

Thanks to Gandalf for his compliments on my 'doorstop' :-)(bought at $409 btw, early spring - and I WILL ring through to USAGold as suggested)...and to Dollar Bill for insights into Israel's potential as a safe haven for wealth - would only that the Gang of Law in command there, would remember their Birthright (and Free Markets!)

Regards my prognostication though, (my first-time guess) I note the Rules say one must defend one's quote, not necessarily make any sense, and so I'll sally forth: -

I see test of a POG bottom coming, relative to the heights to be scaled by early '05. General investor awareness of the future of POO will grow, and with POO now slightly softening and the Sept trade deficit figures positive, fund investors will tend towards a play in the energy sector. This will see a short round of profit taking in the Gold markets, but continued upward pressures on POO and weakening of the refi housing markets will continue to weigh heavily on the dollar, and POG will then soon correct to historical average relative POO as the dollar finds it's 'true value', and far far beyond - as first institutional investors turn to follow the Bull, and then common investors see the parabola and rush to come on board. (7Nomads said it better - "Last pull back to help out the shorts. Then the rocket will be up as funds turn bullish.")

How's that sound, for a tyro?

Gold is going higher...in U.S. dollars. In Canadian dollars it has mostly flatlined, even trending downwards all year. There is no doubt though that the Canadian dollar will eventually cleave away from its shadowing of gold and follow the U.S. dollar down. Until then, its great to be able to buy gold at similar or cheaper prices as compared to the last few years.

$$$$$$429.9$$$$$$
Gold is there in your hand, unchanging. Neither Up nor Down.

It is the dollar that is slipping in confidence. Those precious ounces this evening are the same as they were last night, last week, last year ......
If you have them, then you rest soundly, and there is no fear of inflation or deflation.

GOLDistruth!

I suspect gold is due for a fall in the short term with the ECB buying dollars to stop the inevitable rise of the Euro. In the longer term gold will continue to strengthen due to the fall in the $US, flat mine supply and reduced central bank sales.

The US dollar is getting hammered and will continue to crumbled under the persisent weight of the twin deficits. In effect, it's "Game Over" for the US dollar. The FOMC announcement today was a "deafening silience" about the real issues at hand and thrown in the towel. Gold will therefore continue to climb higher.

- Black Blade

I specifically chose a number just below Lady Waverider's choice to try to indicate my support of her in her very difficult time. I would rather gold go sub-300 than win this contest, if it meant Lady W having her brother home, safe and sound.

Alas, too often the choice is not ours to make. Which is also why I firmly believe gold, ultimately, has nowhere to go but up (in fiat terms). Those who are making the choices for this world leave us few, if any, options...except gold.

Bless you, Lady Waverider, our prayers reach out to you and yours.

Lady GFG

Gold, in the short term (five days), is going higher because, well, the dartboard came up $441.00 even. However, over the medium term (next couple of years), the price of physical gold as represented in dollars will, in my opinion, catch quite a few of us off guard.

As it becomes oh so obvious to both foreign and local investors that our trade and budget deficits are structural in design and not cyclical, and that, the much touted dollar devaluation concept as a solution will not work and only lead to more loss of purchasing power of their dollar reserves/investments, these investors won't be able to point and click their way fast enough toward real wealth GOLD.

They'll be mentally tripping over themselves to bypass the unit of account and medium of exchange notions of "money" to get too the REAL STORE OF VALUE PART real quick like.
Yes, as monetary inflation begins to take hold and ramp up, thank goodness for modern technology as we won't need to use wheelbarrows for other then their intended use.


Many many thanks to MK for the autographed book and to CPM for providing this wonderful venue.

Sent a ratcoon to heaven this morning because the critter ate our 12 "gold" fish. So in memory of our departed, beloved fish I chose $1200.

Maybe my stress and anguish is such at the moment that my humor has gone downright wonky, but your beloved Goldfish in heaven....we found out today that my brother, a commercial fisherman, did not survive a tragic marine accident earlier this week off the west coast. He too is in heaven.....

Sister Grateful for Gold - you're a gem and your words touch my heart.

My condolences on your recent loss, suddenly the price of gold is no longer relevant today. Regards

Your Gold will continue to go up as your dollar will continue to go down.Our dollar will continue to go up and our Gold will continue to stick around the 570 - 600 level.
One day,and I feel its in the near future,Gold will do the same everywhere.
My guess has recently seen a bit of resistance which might now turn into support.

ONLY about one HOUR to go before ENRTY DEADLINE !
<;-)

Dear Waverider,

Please accept my deepest condolences on the loss of your brother.

Sundeck

I think you missed my entry: Message 126270
Bowing
goldenpeace

http://www.barrick.com/3_Financials/MK asks: "How much do you think the Barrick $1 billion bond offer (and Placer's equity offer) has to do with gold breaking above the $430 mark?"

Referring to Barrick's latest quarterly report at the link provided by Boilermaker Msg #126257, pp23-24, it is unclear to me exactly how Barrick's have structured their hedge book. Part of my confusion is undoubtedly due to my unfamiliarity with the language used and with the normal modus operandi of setting up gold hedge books. However, part is also due to vagaries of the description they provide (intentionally or otherwise).

What seems to be clear from their description of their forward commitments is that:

1. They have contracted to make gold deliveries out to 2014 in quantities and prices that are a function of interest rates and gold least rates.

2. Some contracts involve dates later than 2014.

3. The hedge-book is currently underwater, mark-to-market, by about $1.7B. It would break even at a gold spot price of $294.

4. Using some (unspecified) model of interest rates and gold lease rates (and presumably delivery schedule) between now and 2014, their average realisable contracted gold price is about $419.

5. Their current cash cost of production per ounce is about $208.

6. 13.7 million ounces remain hedged, corresponding to only 16% of their reserves.

7. They appear to have considerable flexibility in their delivery schedule.

8. At anticipated rates of production, it would take Barrick about three years to close out their hedge-book, if they so allocated all of their production.

Some comments (not nearly complete and probably containing errors of comprehension):

a. Taken at face value, they appear to be in a fairly sound position. Cash costs are only about half their average realisable price and they only have a small percentage of their reserves hedged.
b. If Barrick wished to close out all of its contracted forward positions immediately, they would need to acquire 13.7M oz (426 tonnes) at current spot prices. Assuming they could get that much without moving the market, they would take a loss of about $1.7B.
c. If, instead, they elect to deliver into their hedge-book over the next ten years then they are confronted with several problems which are probably all exacerbated by the growing global awareness of the state of the $US, and the twin US deficits. These "problems" are all interrelated and are all unpredictable. They include the future spot price of gold, future interest rates, future gold lease rates, the so-called inflation rate as measured by the CPI and the PPI � principal among these latter two are the input costs of wages and energy, which are two of the main cost of production of an ounce of gold.
d. The implications of variability in these factors are known only to Barrick, when they run their forward-delivery contract model for different scenarios. Even though I do not know what that model is, I feel confident in making two assertions: (i) the model will not include all factors that may be important, and (ii) it will not allow reliable predictions of exposure to be made under all probable scenarios.
e. What are the forward implications if the PPI and the CPI get a bit wild � not "hyperinflation" as such, but perhaps 15 � 20% per annum? Well wages will eventually catch up with a vengeance which when combined with likely high energy prices will mean that the cash cost of production will be much greater than the present $208 per ounce. Interest rates will also probably be much higher. What would be the effect on the "average realisable price"? It may turn out to be less than the "average cost of production" over the next ten years � or even the next three years, which is the earliest that Barrick can hope to close out their hedge-book through straight production
f. What if the spot price of gold rises dramatically in the next year? Then the mark-to-market value of the hedge-book becomes much worse than it is already and their ability to acquire gold will similarly become more difficult because of high demand and restricted supply (e.g. high lease rates).
g. Juggling the contractual options available to them, Barrick have probably concluded that it is better to greatly reduce their forward exposure sooner rather than later �even if it means taking a considerable loss. What better way to do it than by raising funds through a bond issue (presumably not inflation indexed). With the funds, they may be able to acquire gold covertly in the relatively short term (CB WAG II sales, gradual spot accumulations, private disinvestment) without moving the market too much. The bonds will probably be appealing to many buyers, pay an "attractive" interest rate in the current climate of "benign inflation", but the bond holders are going to cop the loss when interest rates rise as the $US descends.
h. What is the significance of $430 POG? I doubt that the actual figure is all that significant, but I think the "mood" surrounding that figure is. By mood I mean the persistent upward trend in the spot POG (following the major correction from April this year) and the growing awareness (publicly stated all over the place) that the likely direction of the dollar is down � this coupled with grave concern about the present state of the US's finances and the likely prognosis. $430 is important insofar as it has been broken AGAIN, this time with strong upward "pressure".

The whole question of Barrick's hedge-book (or that of other strongly hedged producers) is made complex by unfolding events; probably much more than was anticipated when the hedge books were constructed.

We wait and watch�

FWIW

Good input from Sundeck! Reading between the lines, if the prospects for gold are such that Barrick should be able to handle its situation without damaging itself, it's automatically true that unhedged miners are in an even better position as they will be converting ore into bullion without having to use some fraction of the proceeds to buy their way out of a hedge.

From the viewpoint of avoiding risk, nothing can beat holding a stash of the already finished product. Once that stash is in place, it's reasonable to look at the poential for paper profits (always convertible to the real thing!) offered by the unhedged miners. My hunch is that within a matter of months POG will reach a level high enough that miners will begin to be valued not only on current earnings but on some fraction of the value of their unmined ounces. For me, this degree of leverage represents the "sweet spot" on the risk/reward spectrum. I realize that fantastically greater leverage is possible if you're lucky enough to pick the right explorer, but the idea of going after ounces that might be there or might not isn't as attractive as betting that markets will begin to assign some value to ounces which are there but haven't been mined yet.

Just how I see it....

Caradoc

It appears as though I have missed this opportunity for a piece of gold. I had my comments written and went to darts last night. Then just plain forgot to enter.

Thank you for having this forum with all of its color!

I will try again to win a piece of gold when another contest appears. Good Luck to those who entered�. If I were to guess though� I would guess $$$$$ 435.7 $$$$$

Where is Gold Going? To the moon! Most of what we all know to be true is history and history repeats itself. So, keep printing that fiat and watch the fall of another Nation. We are living in a time of history making� So, watch in awe as it unfolds. It is inevitable, to be expected, probable, anticipated, what will occur.

Keep up the good discussion� Throughout my day I read most all of the thoughts posted on from the Gold Discussion Forum.

Thank you! Jing Zu

Deepest sympathy to you and your family. My own brother was lost almost three years ago, and I know how much that hurts. When the tears begin to dry, we may go about living a life that, hopefully, would be pleasing to the memory of that dear departed sibling.

Sadly,
Buongiorno

Thanks for the good discussion and analysis in your recent post.

At the bottom of page 20 of Barrick's most recent quarterly report it states that Barrick must maintain a minimum consolidated net worth (CNW) of at least $2 billion - currently, it is $3.4 billion.

With 13.7 million ounces of gold hedged at the end of the quarter @ $418/oz the book was underwater by $1.711 billion. Each $1 increase in gold price above $418/oz reduces Barrick's CNW further by $13.7 million. Since Barrick had excess CNW of $1.4 billion at quarter's end, the price of gold that will eat up that excess and force "early closeout of certain transactions" is $520/oz.
They do not say what percentage of their contracts are covered by this covenant.
Most of us here at the Forum believe that $520 gold is quite likely over the next year. Perhaps Barrick is beginning to see it the same way. Problem for them is that if they accelerate their buyback POG moves up more rapidly. We also suspect that some "commercial" shorts may blow up as the POG rises and start a cascade of buying to cover. As we have said before Barrick is a dead man walking.

Dear Lady Waverider, Let me add my sincerest condolences on the loss of your brother. I offer my prayers to you and yours.

TAA TAA TAAAAAAAAAAAAA, TAA TAA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !

Entries (revised) as of THURSDAY 11/11/04 at just about 00:01 Denver time !!!

FINAL OFFICIAL ENTRY LISTINGS (revised) <;-)

Listed in order of decreasing values !
----

$$$ $8,752.0 $$$ The Invisible Hand (11/6/04; 02:45:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 126118)

$$$ $1,200.0 $$$ LimitUp (11/10/04; 21:44:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 126289)

$$$$ $575.2 $$$$ Sprout (11/5/04; 15:19:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 126103)

$$$$ $499.0 $$$$ Caradoc (11/6/04; 04:35:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 126120)

$$$$ $467.0 $$$$ jenika (11/6/04; 05:55:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 126122)

$$$$ $456.5 $$$$ Gene (11/5/04; 11:03:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 126096)

$$$$ $454.5 $$$$ mackattack (11/6/04; 18:24:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 126127)

$$$$ $452.7 $$$$ Dollar Bill (11/10/04; 17:58:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 126272)

$$$$ $451.6 $$$$ mikal (11/5/04; 13:35:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 126099)

$$$$ $450.1 $$$$ Cometose (11/7/04; 13:14:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 126136)
$$$$ $450.0 $$$$ Lothar of the Hill People (11/5/04; 14:19:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 126101)
$$$$ $449.9 $$$$ slingshot (11/8/04; 16:12:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 126172)

$$$$ $448.8 $$$$ Toolie (11/7/04; 14:32:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 126137)

$$$$ $448.1 $$$$ Buongiorno! (11/9/04; 10:25:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 126196)

$$$$ $447.5 $$$$ Waverider (11/07/04; 01:23:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 126130)

$$$$ $447.3 $$$$ GratefulForGold (11/10/04; 21:01:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 126287)

$$$$ $446.9 $$$$ HOOSIER GOLDBUG (11/9/04; 15:27:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 126211)

$$$$ $446.3 $$$$ Sundeck (11/6/04; 04:20:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 126119)

$$$$ $445.2 $$$$ J-Bullion (11/8/04; 14:12:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 126167)

$$$$ $444.5 $$$$ DoubleEagle (11/8/04; 02:27:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 126152)
$$$$ $444.4 $$$$ Zhisheng (11/4/04; 10:56:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 126063)
$$$$ $441.1 $$$$ makcumka (11/10/04; 06:27:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 126242)
$$$$ $444.0 $$$$ Shapur (11/9/04; 13:22:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 126204)

$$$$ $443.2 $$$$ Rimh (11/9/04; 09:45:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 126188)

$$$$ $442.5 $$$$ Noble1 (11/5/04; 18:23:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 126110)

$$$$ $442.1 $$$$ Gandalf the White (11/10/04; 18:56:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 126278)

$$$$ $441.7 $$$$ Smeagol (11/5/04; 17:15:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 126105)

$$$$ $441.0 $$$$ Druid (11/10/04; 21:31:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 126288)

$$$$ $440.8 $$$$ Shermag (11/9/04; 11:36:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 126199)

$$$$ $440.0 $$$$ shawnis (11/8/04; 20:28:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 126175)

$$$$ $439.8 $$$$ Golden Era (11/10/04; 05:29:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 126239)

$$$$ $439.6 $$$$ Rustee (11/5/04; 09:02:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 126086)

$$$$ $439.4 $$$$ goldquest (11/10/04; 19:38:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 126280)

$$$$ $439.2 $$$$ Goldendome (11/9/04; 21:38:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 126230)

$$$$ $438.9 $$$$ Liberty Head (11/5/04; 21:37:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 126116)
$$$$ $438.8 $$$$ Rocky (11/9/04; 17:52:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 126218)

$$$$ $438.5 $$$$ White Hills (11/10/04; 11:52:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 126260)

$$$$ $438.2 $$$$ glockmaster19 (11/9/04; 16:05:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 126213)

$$$$ $437.7 $$$$ Canuck Gold (11/9/04; 22:40:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 126234)

$$$$ $437.5 $$$$ Felix the Cat (11/9/04; 19:53:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 126222)

$$$$ $437.0 $$$$ innerline (11/10/04; 11:35:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 126259)

$$$$ $436.8 $$$$ goldenpeace (11/10/04; 16:18:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 126270)

$$$$ $436.5 $$$$ pilgrims_gold (11/10/04; 06:12:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 126241)

$$$$ $436.0 $$$$ killerjay_47 (11/10/04; 10:06:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 126253)

$$$$ $435.5 $$$$ YGM (11/7/04; 09:39:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 126133)

$$$$ $435.0 $$$$ Camel (11/10/04; 14:16:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 126264)

$$$$ $434.5 $$$$ balzac (11/9/04; 09:58:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 126190)

$$$$ $434.3 $$$$ Tevye (11/10/04; 12:36:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 126261)

$$$$ $434.0 $$$$ Black Blade (11/10/04; 20:57:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 126286)

$$$$ $433.8 $$$$ R Powell (11/10/04; 15:50:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 126268)

$$$$ $433.5 $$$$ timbervision (11/10/04; 20:23:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 126283)

$$$$ $433,3 $$$$ Shanti (11/8/04; 14:53:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 126169)

$$$$ $433.0 $$$$ Gondolin (11/10/04; 03:13:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 126237)

$$$$ $432.5 $$$$ John the Jute (11/9/04; 08:41:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 126187)

$$$$ $432.0 $$$$ TheJuniorMiner (11/10/04; 08:55:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 126248)

$$$$ $431.6 $$$$ servantHeart (11/5/04; 10:26:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 126092)

$$$$ $431.0 $$$$ DryWasher (11/4/04; 16:13:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 126074

$$$$ $430.2 $$$$ GoldCoaster (11/10/04; 22:57:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 126292)

$$$$ $429.9 $$$$ Wky_Woodsman (11/10/04; 20:43:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 126284)

$$$$ $429.5 $$$$ The Hoople (11/9/04; 12:08:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 126200)
$$$$ $429.4 $$$$ Legolas (11/9/04; 20:49:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 126226)

$$$$ $429.1 $$$$ mudr (11/7/04; 21:59:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 126147)

$$$$ $428.4 $$$$ NTgeo (11/10/04; 20:52:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 126285)

$$$$ $427.0 $$$$ Clink! (11/7/04; 12:25:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 126135)

$$$$ $426.5 $$$$ Topaz (11/4/04; 16:13:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 126075)

$$$$ $425.5 $$$$ wehappyfew (11/10/04; 19:27:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 126279)

$$$$ $424.5 $$$$ 7nomads (11/10/04; 18:42:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 126276)

$$$$ $424.2 $$$$ Tranquility Base (11/10/04; 17:50:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 126271)

$$$$ $423.2 $$$$ Tiburon (11/10/04; 20:20:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 126282)

$$$$ $422.3 $$$$ The Knife (11/5/04; 10:03:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 126089)

$$$$ $419.5 $$$$ Golden Lionheart (11/7/04; 17:13:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 126140)

$$$$ $000.0 $$$$ TomJIl (11/6/04; 16:21:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 126126)

===
<;-)

<;-)

http://www.democracynow.org/article.pl?sid=04/11/09/1526251Around the world, we appear to be seeing negative reactions to US, or more particularly dollar, hegemony. Multiple left-wing governments in South America, the gold dinar, Iran's soon-to-be oil market etc. Why now ? Well, the most obvious answer is that the sentiment against the dollar has been there for a long time (back into the '60s for the roots of the creation of the euro) and now seems to be a possible time when the US Dept of Defense is trying (somewhat unsuccessfully) to practice offense. By the time the Iraq situation is resolved (and by that I mean when the US forces are back on US soil), the world is going to be a very changed place.

The attached link is to an interview with an author who appears to have been deeply involved with the creation of the dollar empire, and some of the dirty tricks are described. While little of this makes it into the US media, it must not be forgotten that, as an example, many Iranians (particularly senior clerics in positions of influence) can remember when their democratically elected government was overthrown by a US-backed dictator just under 50 years ago.

There was a particularly succinct description concerning Ecuador - Snip :-

JOHN PERKINS: Well, the company I worked for was a company named Chas. T. Main in Boston, Massachusetts. We were about 2,000 employees, and I became its chief economist. I ended up having fifty people working for me. But my real job was deal-making. It was giving loans to other countries, huge loans, much bigger than they could possibly repay. One of the conditions of the loan�let's say a $1 billion to a country like Indonesia or Ecuador�and this country would then have to give ninety percent of that loan back to a U.S. company, or U.S. companies, to build the infrastructure�a Halliburton or a Bechtel. These were big ones. Those companies would then go in and build an electrical system or ports or highways, and these would basically serve just a few of the very wealthiest families in those countries. The poor people in those countries would be stuck ultimately with this amazing debt that they couldn't possibly repay. A country today like Ecuador owes over fifty percent of its national budget just to pay down its debt. And it really can't do it. So, we literally have them over a barrel. So, when we want more oil, we go to Ecuador and say, "Look, you're not able to repay your debts, therefore give our oil companies your Amazon rain forest, which are filled with oil." And today we're going in and destroying Amazonian rain forests, forcing Ecuador to give them to us because they've accumulated all this debt. So we make this big loan, most of it comes back to the United States, the country is left with the debt plus lots of interest, and they basically become our servants, our slaves. It's an empire. There's no two ways about it. It's a huge empire. It's been extremely successful.

End snip.

So the thought occurs to me, what happens if there is a country in this situation which gets an offer from another creditor who wants the same thing and has a lot of dollars and can maybe offer gentler terms ? Say Japan or China ? It wouldn't be payback time, more like payoff time !

C!

Yours eyes may be closed at times...
But you are always awake.
Blessings
goldenpeace

CNBC just fielded an e-mail question from seemingly a GATA supporter to Bill Seidman, regarding illegal gold shorting and whether the gold price will explode when they run out of ammo. Real funny, Seidman said these were only allegations and nothing has been proven. He did say it would be a big deal if anything was proven. I agree there Bill. Trouble is it has been proven.

I have noticed that in the past week, the price of gold in Euros is not moving very much. I also noticed that the price of gold is $435 when the $/Euro is $1.29. I ask everyone to make a little chart of the dollar price of gold for every level where the Euro gets more expensive by the nickel. My favorite value is $489 for gold when the Euro hits $1.45.

Of course, once we see a fall of the dollar like that, the initial rush for gold should begin to also lift the Euro price of gold as well. That will give this little rocket engine another boost.

The real rocket fuel is the short position on gold mixed in with a little peak oil with just a pinch of the possibility of nuclear war in the middle east. All in all, a very powerful brew.

To life! Protect those around you in the next few years. None of this will be any fun at all.

Speaking on behalf of the staff at USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals, let me offer you our sincerest condolences for your loss. Our thoughts and prayers are with you during this difficult time.

Another trend weighing heavily on Barrick's hedge book that I did not see mentioned in their financial statements is the decline in the US$. I think we can assume that, at a minimum, the POG will be inversely proportional to the $ index. If so, a dollar index of .70 will put gold at $520/oz where Barrick goes under. This amounts to a 16.5% deline from the current .84. Barrick's hedges in $ insure their downfall.

COMEX December '04 Gold Contract (GCZ04)
Open = $434.3 HIGH = $436.2 low = $434.1
SETTLEMENT = $435.4 CHANGE +$0.9
===
AND the "KING of the HILL" today is:
TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

Sir YGM !!! (for the SECOND TIME !)
Hang in there !
---
$$$$ $435.5 $$$$ (11/7/04; 09:39:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 126133)

Sheesh leave to do some work and the place goes nuts w/ traffic...hey "King o` the Hill" kinda reminds one of the Horseshoes and Handgrenades analogy? Eh!! (:-}>

I must have missed the news of your loss. I too offer my condolences. I have seen that Comercial Fishing (especially "crabbing" in the northern pacific and Bearing straights) are among the most dangerous jobs and takes one of strong will to seek that adventure and wealth in such conditions. We hope that you fare well during this time.

- Black Blade

@Boilermaker #126302 re covenances.

Yes, I suspect you may have identified the single most important vulnerability in their hedge position and perhaps their most pressing concern.

If not too much of their hedged position is covered by the covenances, then a $B "well spent" may prevent the axe from falling...but, as you say, it is a delicate play and lots can go wrong in a short time.

:-)

I pray that the memory of your brother always lightens your mind and warms your heart forever with goodness.

I am very sorry for your loss. I will keep you and your family in my prayers during this difficult time.

Take care.

PA

May I, too, offer my condolences and prayers to you and your family. May God have mercy on your brother's soul and guide him into the everlasting life that only He can provide. I'm sure he's already there.
When thinking of your brother---

Remember: God made a heart of gold, of gold,
Shining and sweet and true;
Gave it a home of the fairest mould,
Blest it and called it-you.

by Robert William Service(1874-? ) Sunshine VI

Noble1

http://www.gateway2russia.com/art.php?artid=256892&rubid=∥ent=&grandparent


09 November 2004 12:15
Russia selling dollars to diversify currency reserves - Putin`s economic adviser

By selling US dollars and securities and assets denominated in the US currency, Russia is diversifying its currency reserves, which is in line with the Russian Central Bank's policy, Andrey Illarionov, economic adviser to the Russian president, said in an interview with ITAR-TASS today. Illarionov is taking part in an international conference "Capital expansion: from a national to a transnational economy" which is being held here.
The Russian expert expressed this view following reports in the British media today saying that Russia, India and China are getting rid of their dollar assets and that this may lead to the dollar exchange rate falling further.
According to Illarionov, over the last few days the Russian Central Bank has made no secret of its intention to expand the basis of its currency reserves, including by investing currency reserves in the acquisition of euros.

http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Daily Gold Market Report has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.

Comex gold futures ended slightly higher Thursday after a low-key Veterans Day holiday session in which bullion prices effectively mirrored the U.S. dollar's movements versus the euro.

The most-active December contract settled 90 cents higher at $435.40.

Dealers agreed that while gold is predominantly attuned to the currency markets at the moment, sentiment in bullion is deemed sturdy.

Players remain mindful of the difficulties besetting the U.S. currency and the geopolitical uncertainty arising from Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat's death.

With a persistently weak U.S. currency hugely supportive for countercyclical assets such as gold, the huge U.S. budget and trade deficits are widely viewed as two key reasons gold prices are expected to remain supported over the near to medium term.

Gold's safe-haven appeal is expected to be heightened further as attention returns to the obstacles to peace in the Middle East in the wake of Arafat's passing and the ongoing war in Iraq.

"Gold's looking pretty good around here and there are plenty of reasons why prices are as high as they are," said a dealer with a large U.S. investment bank.

-----(see url for access to full news, 24-hr newswire)----

Thank you a thousand Gold pieces for your prayers, kind thoughts, and support during this very difficult time. Please know that your words are all very precious and that I have kept each and every posting here for my memory book. I shall choose some for the memorial service next week. I am amazed at the caring and support offered by people whom I've never met, yet with whom I feel connected through a love for, and appreciation of Gold and all the values that it encompasses. Life can change on a dime, and what really matters is the purity of love in our spirits and our hearts. I can see from these posts that the hearts of those here reflect the eternal beauty of pure Gold. Thanks again for all your precious words.

Could any of you in the USA explain to me this concept of "privatising" Social Security?

In my part of the world, privatisation is the selling off of a government entity (or monopoly) for an immediate short-term profit. The former government entity is corporatised, and floated on the Stock Exchange. Examples in Oz include banks, airlines, and monopoly telecommunications carriers.

The important fact is that these "privatised" entities have one thing in common - they all make a (huge) profit.

How on earth can one "privatise" the greatest loss-inducing mechanism in all of Christiandom - Social Security. How do you induce speculators to part with their hard-earned, for a share of a guaranteed loss?

Your thoughts would oblige.

Cheers, GS

Boilermaker et al.,

Further to my last post Msg #126315, a closer reading of Barrick's last quarterly report, on p.25 they state:

"Barrick's MTAs (Master Trading Agreements) exclude unrealised mark-to-market valuations in the calculation of consolidated net worth."

Hence, I now think it is incorrect in supposing that their exposure to a rapidly rising gold price would erode their CNW by forcing their hedge-book more and more underwater.

What do they mean by "Consolidated Net Worth"? It appears to be identical with "Total shareholders' equity" appearing on the consolidated balance sheet.

There are some puzzling features of Barrick's hedge-book that I am still trying to get my mind around. One is what seems to be an incredibly favourable arrangement enabling them to deliver gold into their hedge book at times that suit them - even to the point of always being able to roll forward the final delivery date from year to year (if the counter-party agrees). (I think GATA has drawn attention to this and no doubt it will be scrutinised closely in the Blanchard case.)

One thing that puzzles me a bit is that, given the very favourable hedge contracts, why would Barrick now want to wind them down so determinedly, as they have recently stated? It's not as if they are short of reserves - only 16% hedged - and so long to effect delivery - 10 years or more (open ended in some cases). It would seem like a dream arrangement to guard against a FALLING gold price. What has changed? Perhaps they (and their counterparties) know what is coming down the pike...

More later, if I can become more enlightened...

Cheers

:-0

I would like to extend my deepest heartfelt sympathy for you and your loved ones. My up-most respect and admiration for you dear lady in representing such strength in a time of weakness. God be with you and your loved ones.

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/FK12Ad05.htmlSNIP :
The implications of a Chinese hard landing will ripple through every major asset market: Stocks, bonds, real estate, and commodities. The linkage will be the blowback through the American consumer.

From virtuous circle to vicious :
- China is the world supply source
- America is the world demand source
- China sells goods to the US consumer
- The consumer sends dollars to China
- China parks dollars in US bonds
- Lower bond yields subsidize the US consumer, spurring demand and investment
- US consumer demand leads to investment in Chinese manufacturing.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Using Ari's words : "Stormclouds gather..."

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/FK06Ad01.htmlAnother article by Liu !
SNIP : "Yet a hard landing may be precisely the cold-turkey medicine needed to veer China away from an addiction on export for fiat dollars not backed by any specie of value. Soft-landing is a flawed imagery because there are few economic runways long enough to land an economy plagued by speculative acceleration. Running a plane off the runway is much more dangerous than a controlled hard landing."

"Financial assets denominated in fiat dollars are now mostly built on debt, with sizable amounts in debts external to the US economy. Debt is not intrinsically objectionable if it is adequately collateralized by real assets, and the proceeds are invested to increase income to service the debt. But if debt is collateralized mostly by the wealth effect of speculative asset appreciation and serviced by incurring more debt, a bubble is in the making. The so-called air-ball financing, widely used in financing global telecom expansion in the 1990s, in which unrealistically anticipated future earnings were used as collateral for financing over-investments to generate those very earnings, caused the telecom bubble. A housing bubble exists because houses are being financed by full-cost mortgages at negative interest rates, banking on the continuing rise in home prices."

"Whether or when a bubble will burst depends on a government's ability to extend its elasticity, which is not unlimited, notwithstanding US Fed chief Allan Greenspan's wizardry. Such elasticity comes from liquidity. To support the market, government increasingly needs to intervene, which in turn destroys the market. As is already apparent, the Federal Reserve is increasingly reduced to an irrelevant role of explaining the economy rather than directing it. It has adopted the role of a clean-up crew of otherwise avoidable financial debris rather than the preventive guardian of public financial health."

Yet Liu has somewhat other thoughts on gold then we have at the CPM-forum :

"The recent global commodity market bubble is not caused by real increased demand by the Chinese economy but by speculation fueled by low dollar interest rates and speculation of China's future demand based on anticipated Chinese export growth. Yet the inevitable rise in dollar interest rates will burst the commodities bubble, affecting the exchange value of the currencies of commodity-exporting nations such as Australia, South Africa and Chile. It will also torpedo the anemic US recovery and curb demand for Chinese exports. The global economy, led by super-low short-term dollar interest rate, has been sustained by carry trade, a technical term that describe a speculative strategy of borrowing short-term in low-interest money markets to invest for gain in long-term high-interest money markets, or to speculate in high-inflation sectors such as commodities. A steep fall in copper, gold and other metal prices in the final week of April 2004 suggested that the two-year boom in commodity markets might be coming to a close, except for oil, whose price is being driven by the second Iraq war and climatic factors."

"The gold price was fixed in London at $386 an ounce on April 28, down from a peak of $428.20 in January 2004. Gold closed in London at $423.45 on October 22. December delivery gold was at $425.60. The growing nervousness in the metal markets stems mainly from China's moves to cool its fast-expanding economy as well as a recent rebound in the dollar, reflecting expectations of higher dollar interest rates. The rebound of the dollar has roiled metal markets because most prices are denominated in dollars and often move in the opposite direction.

Booming demand from China has been blamed for driving the spike in commodity prices since late 2002, with China either overtaking or approaching the US as the world's biggest consumer of materials like aluminum, coal, copper, iron ore and steel. But with fears growing of an inflationary bubble, Chinese authorities ordered banks in late April to curb their rapid rise in lending in overheated sectors. The government has also tightened capital requirements and regulatory approval for investments in aluminum, cement, real estate and steel projects. The State Council, China's cabinet, halted construction of a $1.3 billion steel mill in Jiangsu province as part of an effort to rebalance economic growth. The expansion of China's steel capacity has outstripped its electricity capacity and raw material supply. As China becomes the largest consumer of basic commodities, it would be natural, if it were not for dollar hegemony, for such commodities to be priced in yuan. Euroland consumes more imported oil than any other nation, but the price of oil is denominated in dollars. Iraq under Saddam Hussein was the only oil-exporting nation that denominated its oil in euros, and we all know what happened to Saddam."
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thoughts ?

http://en.rian.ru/rian/index.cfm?prd_id=160&msg_id=5075463☆trow=1&date=2004-11-11&do_alert=0
Snip: 11/11/04 (RIA Novosti)-The exploitable reserves of Russian gold will be used up in 2011...

Click on the hyperlink to view the short article. Interesting! Meaningful!?

Remember:Make your contest guess as close as you can and our gracious host will put gold in your hand.

Noble1

I had been wondering about the same thing, so I went to W's campaign website and tried to do a search for the word. The search engine doesn't work with Netscape. Switching handily to IE, I looked for both privitisation and privitization. There were no hits, from which I would have to infer that it was not one of the major planks of his campaign. Social Security had over 200 hits, but as the first 50 started with attacks on John Kerry, I didn't bother to look any further for some solid policy exposition.

If I sound frustrated and sarcastic, you would be right. Here in the US we are still trying to get over a protracted period of mudslinging (from BOTH sides, I hasten to add) which was also characterised by an almost total lack of hard information of how the serious, have-to-deal-with issues would be addressed. You know, the stuff that's discussed here - Hubbert's point, Boomer retirement, etc.

However, it would appear that the essential thrust is to allow younger members of the workforce to divert some of their SS payments into individual retirement accounts, rather than having it all being poured into the general SS kitty. Quite what these accounts would be allowed to be used for, as well as who would hold them, is open for debate, particularly as the whole point is to give people the freedom of individual choice. There already exists a huge choice of tax-free retirement options, so why would the government want to impose others and, in any case, why should the government think that they have any right to force me to save ? And if the government forces me to do this, are they going to have to underwrite the investment vehicles which they have forced me to put my money into ? If it is limited to Treasury bonds, this is essentially the same as the current system.

It has moral hazard and conflict of interest smeared all over it, but Wall St could make handsome profits from it, so there is a good chance it will go forward. The unfortunate bottom line, however, is that the current SS scheme is the usual cash-out = cash-in scheme, so if money is diverted to other things on the "in" side, the government is going to have to find an alternative source to make up the difference. Bearing in mind that it is already running a huge deficit - including the money already being funnelled into SS - there is no real practical way that this is feasible. So they'll probably just borrow the money.

C!

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml;jsessionid=110EQHH21JWCUCRBAE0CFEY?type=topNews&storyID=6795169
Somebody (please remind me who it was) recently posted about revelations/admissions of oil companies overstating their reserves and mused about mining companies doing the same thing with their gold reserves. Then I read this;

Snip: 12/12/04 (Reuters)-Citigroup said South Africa's Harmony Gold...has overstated its reserves by 23 percent.

Remember: Webster's definition of gold.

gold (n) a malleable yellow metallic element used esp for coins and jewelry; a precious metal; money, wealth; a yellow color. *(adj) of, or like, gold.

Noble1

You might try privatization of social security on dogpile.com

Sure, the way to profit from Social security is to turn it over to the short sellers on the Nasduck. Now maybe if they would buy gold with it that wouldn't be so bad.

I observe with fascination the multitude of spelling errors now prevalent in the English language.

Just because words sound alike, does not mean they are spelt alike. There are too many examples - I was making a list, but, what's the use. People do not go by letters anymore, they go by SOUNDS. Rather like money, come to think of it: money today LOOKS LIKE MONEY, so, it must be money.

Take "Privitization" or "Privitisation".

This I would understand to be the process of turning some things into PRIVIES. a "PRIVY" is the polite word for a toilet, amongst the Brits. No wonder an Internet search produced nothing. I never heard of a process of turning stuff into toilets. But, again, come to think of it, maybe modern state issuance of "money" is the result of the "privitization" of money?? Toilet-money, let us say?

Now CLINK, if you had typed in "PrivAtization", you would have found a great deal, I am sure.

The GAB, in Argentina, the Land of Privitized Money.

http://www.cbo.gov/showdoc.cfm?index=3488sequence=0A bit dated but well explained!

http://fx.sauder.ubc.ca/cgi/fxplot?b=XAU&c=USD&c=CAD&c=EUR&rd=365&fd=1&fm=1&fy=2003&ld=31&lm=12&ly=2004&y=daily&q=volume&f=png&a=lin&m=0&x=I too have noticed the relative lack of movement in the PoG as priced in Euros, as well as other currencies. The chart found at the link above shows a one year relative pricing of Canadian dollars, Euros, and US dollars. The Canadian dollar and the Euro are unchanged over one year, +/- 1.5%, but the US dollar has lost 10% relative to gold.
As I stated in my prediction for the contest, gold appears to have been trading very much like a currency of late, but eventually as the US dollar weakens and starts to bring other paper currencies to their knees, gold will show its strength and those of us who are holding will be in solid shape for the tomorrow that follows.
To play around with the chart you can go to http://fx.sauder.ubc.ca/plot.html and set it up, although I believe I got the url for the chart from this board somewhere, so many of you might have it in your favourites already.
Once again, please feel free to enlighten me if my remarks are somewhat superficial or ill-conceived. I know that I am not as well-read as several of the regulars here.

Waverider, deepest sympathies in your time of loss. May you find some peace in a time of chaos.

J

I think it is privatisation,with an s,but english is not my motherlanguage.

http://www.m-w.com/cgi-bin/dictionary?book=Dictionary&va=privatisationUnless Merriam-Webster has renounced some British (or other, proper) form of the word, the only spelling for privatization is P-R-I-V-A-T-I-Z-A-T-I-O-N. Just FYI.

J

P.S. Gold seems on a bit of a tear at the moment, having picked up $2.50 or so in about half an hour. Even if it means I don't win the contest, I'll take a solid run in the price of gold any day.

http://charts-d.quote.com:443/1002980432830?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=DX00Y∬erval=10&Ht=600&Wd=800&Display=2&Study=MA&Param1=13&Param2=0&Param3=&FontSize=10DIVE, DIVE, DIVE
GO GOLD !
<;-)

OK, OK, my bad ! LOL ! I have to admit that usually I am of the same opinion about poor grammar and misspelling. When I first arrived here, I was often asked what I most missed about the UK. I replied, "Adverbs." Usually it is the word good instead of well.

I used to get a lot of questions when I was in France as to why a certain word was spelt in a certain way, but pronounced in another. The best example I ever found was the four letters "ough" which can be pronounced seven different ways. And then some people wonder why English is a difficult language. In fact, I even went as far as to try to conceive a sort of rules-based English, where the spelling was consistant and invariant for a given sound. Money, for instance, would become munny. There have been many attempts in the past (and this continues) to rectify this. One attempt was made by a US newspaper at the end of the 19th century (if my memory serves me correctly) to try to remedy the situation. They were going to do it little by little, and started out with only six egregious examples, of which only one has survived, and even then only in the US - thru. And I don't know about anyone else, but I would have thought throo might have been more logical.

Privatization worked only slightly better at the W site, with four references of which only was relevant. This from the VEEP in a townhall situation (by the way, I'm not sure what the questionier was taking at the time either .....!)

SNIP -

Q Mr. Vice President?

THE VICE PRESIDENT: Yes.

Q My question is -- has to do with Social Security. And it is in response -- my question is in response to Senator Kerry's outrageous complaining -- comments this weekend in which he announced that there was going to be a January surprise.

THE VICE PRESIDENT: Right.

Q And it had to that there will be privatization of Social Security. And also when he said that, he was in a large group, obviously. And he said this privatization of Social Security is going to affect all of your -- all of you medical -- or middle class people. All of you middle class people. Here's my question, I am recently widowed and I am recently retired. My husband died about a year after he retired, so as a result of his death and our retirement, I had to reckon with our Social Security and our retirement plans. And it became painfully aware to me that had we been able to just manage -- privately manage a small percentage of our Social Security contributions, I would have something of his Social Security now. As it is, I, of course, get my Social Security, plus I get a widow's benefit. But his Social Security is gone.

THE VICE PRESIDENT: Right.

Q And I just -- in comparison to what we were able to accumulate in our IRAs and in our 401k, my question to you is, how could optional, partial privatization of our security -- our Social Security contribution, how does that affect negatively all that middle class?

THE VICE PRESIDENT: Okay. Well, the comments that Senator Kerry made this weekend were, I thought, outrageous.

Q Oh, good. (Laughter.) We are in agreement.

THE VICE PRESIDENT: Well, the amazing thing about it is -- I've been involved in politics for a good part of the last -- nearly 40 years. The first campaign I ever worked in as a young man was 1966. And since then I've been a candidate for Congress six times, and now this is my second run for Vice President. I've been in winning elections and losing elections. But the thing that has happened frequently during the course of that career is when we get down to the end of an election, and our opponents are running behind, they start to peddle this notion of, oh, my gosh, the Republicans are going to destroy Social Security. I've heard it year after year after year. It's absolutely not true. It is just as false as can be. For him to make that suggestion is obviously geared strictly to trying to frighten people into voting for him on the theory that somehow something will happen to Social Security otherwise. This is dead wrong. It's not true. He knows it's not true. That's the most -- the most appalling thing of all is that he would consciously peddle something like that and scare the heck out of, frankly, a lot of our senior citizens when he knows it's not true.

Having said all of that, where we are with respect to Social Security is that the trust fund is in good shape for those that are currently retired, drawing benefits, and for those who will draw benefits any time in the foreseeable future. The problem we're going to run into in terms of the basic financial well being of the system is going to be a bigger problem for those now in their 20s and 30s, people like my kids, for example. And there are legitimate concerns there. They're worried that by the time they reach retirement age 30 or 40 years from now, there won't be anything there in the system. And there is going to be a problem down the road. We know how many people are going to reach retirement age. We know when they're going to reach that age. We know how much money is flowing into the system, and there will be a problem 30 or 40 years down the road that we need to address. And the sooner we begin to address it, the better.

What the President has talked about is doing something that you would find, given the story that you told about your own circumstances,

attractive, and that is we allow that younger generation, on a voluntary basis. It will be up to them, but to take a portion of their payroll tax and invest it in something like a 401k. It would be an approved plan that would earn a higher rate of return than what they'll get out Social Security, and as you point out, it would be their personal account. And in a circumstance down the road, such as you say -- as you say when your husband passed away, that was it. You'd get the widow's benefit but none of his retirement. And this would be a situation where that would be a personal account of the person who is retired, and they could pass it on to the next generation, if there are funds left in it.

So it provides greater flexibility down the road. It's nothing that's going to affect anybody who is currently retired today. This is the kind of thing that is obviously going to be future-oriented for future generations. But we also think it's important because it helps to the extent you generate a higher rate of return, you begin to close the funding gap that is going to exist out there 30 or 40 years down the road. So we think it makes sense. We think it's something that needs to be looked at and to be explored. We've talked about it. But the notion that Senator Kerry has peddled that somehow there's a January surprise, that the system is going to be quote "privatized" is just not true. It's wrong. It's a distortion. I can think of stronger words to use, but that's exactly where we're at, at this point.

END SNIP

Something seems pretty clear to me ......

Thank you for the suggestions, EagleOne and Goldquest. I also found something sponsored by the Cato Institute at www.socialsecurity.org

They seem to be in fine form today, but if this level holds for today, save a morsel of meat for Monday, ok?

Once again it is at this site that I catch up on the real news of the day, ie. that Russia, China and India are all divesting themselves of US dollars and consequently helping gold, but the bull market for gold is still quiet in other currencies...

Lady Waverider: I also offer my condolences for your loss...you're willingness to express your loss here is courageous and has helped to bind our little community here a bit closer as we reflect on how precious life is.... Thank you.

Cough - coff
Bough - bow
Bought - bawt
Rough - ruff
Through - throo
Thorough - thurruh
Though - dho

C!

PS. If anyone thinks of an eighth one, you will make my day !

While I am trying to learn spanish (and making slow progress) its a good reminder of the difficulties in english which we take for granted because we grew up with it (and funny, too...).

Does either of these count?

hiccough -- pronounced (and often spelled) hiccup

youghourt -- sometimes pronounced yah-ourt

The only correctly spelled word that needs to be used HERE ---- is GOLD !
<;-)

Don't think so, but nice try.

@ Gandy - While I was typing it did occur to me that neither gold nor silver pose any spelling problem whatsoever !

C!

http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/latest-digest.htmlSnip:

And it must run massive current-account and trade deficits in order to attract that capital -- inflows that are now up to $2.6 billion per business day as America's current account deficit ballooned to 5.7% of GDP in mid-2004. At this rate, America's current account deficit now absorbs more than 80% of the world's surplus saving.
....................
On a broad trade-weighted basis, the real effective exchange rate of the US dollar is down only about 11% from its early 2002 peak. That's nothing for a US economy with a current account deficit of 5.7% and rising. By contrast, the same broad dollar index fell 28% in the second half the 1980s when America's current account gap peaked at 3.4%. Today's US economy has about twice the current account problem it had back then but has experienced only about one-third the dollar depreciation. For that simple reason alone, I would argue that the dollar adjustment has been unusually constrained.
..................
There is tragic irony in all this. In large part, today's US trade deficits are made in Washington -- not Beijing. Lacking in private saving, outsize US budget deficits are leading to ever-widening current-account and trade deficits.
**************
Misetich

ANOTHER scintillating report from Mr. Roach hightlighting the overvaluation of the US $

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll

It would be an approved plan that would earn a higher rate of return than what they'll get out Social Security.- Dick Cheney

Approved????? How patronizing. Approved by who?? Joe Battapaglia? Frank Quatrone? Jeffry Skilling ?Larry Cuddlow? Amy whats her name? I can't remember and haven't watched in years. These are the same one that approved JDS Uniphase at 70 (now 3.13). The best and brightest, the Masters of the Universe. Many professionally managed pension funds are in questionable shape now because they listened to these people.

http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.html

Harvest Time
Whatever it is that you may have sown,
we'll give you the power to reap GOLD.

1-800-869-5115
USAGOLD-Centennial has over three decades of experience in the field!

Watching the waterfall as it cascades down to new lows - where will it stop?

Sir Clink, Perhaps you ought to read this humble offering?

http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/latest-digest.htmlSnip:

Richard Berner and Shital Patel (New York)

Business conditions decelerated in early November, according to the Morgan Stanley Business Conditions Index (MSBCI), following three months of volatility that have obscured the underlying trend.
................
Analyst Commentary by S&P Major Sector

Consumer Discretionary:
.... while the group continued to increase prices charged.
......... Employment over the past three months was mixed, but most groups plan on hiring over the next three months. No groups plan to increase capex.
..............
Consumer Staples:

Packaged food and beverage companies have increased prices over the past year, but household and personal care and food retailers have reduced them. Hiring plans are stable while the beverages companies plan to increase capex by 0-3% over the next 3 months.

Energy:

.......... and they raised prices charged by 3% or more over the past year.
..... the companies have plans to hire noticeably over the next three months. Oil services companies also have plans to increase capex by 10% or more.
Financials:

Prices were generally lower compared with a year ago. Bookings were lower for the mortgage finance companies. Large-cap banks were still cutting payrolls over the past three months although mortgage finance and multifamily REITs increased hiring somewhat. Mid cap banks plan to hire somewhat and increase capex by 0-3% over the next three months.
..........
Healthcare:

Three of the four groups increased prices charged by 3% or more. Hiring plans are flat for the group while healthcare distribution companies plan to increase capex by 0-3% over the next three months.
................
Industrials:

Most groups increased prices charged, with the exception of business services and airlines.
......... All groups, with the exception of airlines and air freight and surface transportation companies, plan to increase capex over the next 1-6 months. Hiring plans are generally strong for the group.
.............

Information Technology:
........as conditions improved, and prices charged, bookings, hiring, and hiring plans all increased. .............. also plan to increase capex by 6-10% over the next three months.
..............
Materials:
All three groups increased prices charged by 3% or more. Hiring plans are flat for the sector, while the paper and forest products companies plan to increase capex by 10% or more.
.............
Telecommunications Services:
.......and prices charged continued to decline by 3% or more from a year ago. The telecom services companies were still cutting payrolls over the past three months and have no plans to step up hiring over the next three.
..........
Utilities:
.......... while prices charged continued to increase by 3% or more from a year ago. Utilities continue to cut payrolls over the past three months, and have no plans to increase hiring over the next three, although they do plan to increase capex by 3-6% over the next 1-6 months.
***********
Misetich

Real Price Inflation fuelled by higher energy and commodity prices, higher import prices continues almost across all industries, and its effects are ONLY beginning in the initial phase....and jobs are nowhere to be found as October's tax receipts provide ample proof of non-existent individual tax receipts increase by the US Treasury - though hundreds of "jobs" were announced to have been created...

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll

TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA
AND the "KING of the HILL" today is:

Sir Glockmaster19 !!!
CAN Sir Glockmaster19 "hold" the HILL for one more day ?
Monday's Settlement is the one that we await !
---
$$$$ $438.2 $$$$ glockmaster19 (11/9/04; 16:05:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 126213
===

COMEX December '04 Gold Contract (GCZ04)
Open = $437.5 HIGH = $439.5 low = $435.0
SETTLEMENT = $438.3 CHANGE +$2.9

As it now stands, the "trust fund" has absolutely no assets whatsoever. We "trust" that congress will beg borrow and steal whatever monies are necessary come the day they are called for. It is not a trust "fund" but a trust "liability".

For anyone (be he Vala or VP) to say otherwise is to perpetuate a lie that has been told for many years now. Yet, to be fair, it is hard to see how you could make the situation worse since the amount of benefits that are to be paid is the real measure of the liability - not the quantity of funds that have been squandered elsewhither.

If the trust fund were an "asset" then Enron would still be in business.

Indeed you cant take it with you - (why anyone would want to just baffles me), the question is whether you will leave anything behind. Mercy (in this life) is to be able to stop. The gift to Men in this life is to eventually leave it. The curse of hell (if you like) is that it never ends, as indeed some must bear the burden of this existence for many long years. To leave gold behind is no dishonor. To bequeath fiat is to leave an account receivable- at the least a more dubious asset.

http://www.usagold.com/IRA.html
George Cooper at USAGOLD-Centennial Precious Metals can help steer you through the process. Click URL above for more information, and call for a free consultation.

http://www.futuresource.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=GC&o=100/DX&a=M&z=610x300&d=LOW&b=LINE&st=Well, the "Basket" Index @ 1.19 (it now takes 119 Dollars to acquire 100 Baskets) indicates PaperGold is humming along in sync with it's alt currency "equivalents".
What astounds me is this apparent acquessence (sp?) by "foreigners" in handing a "get out of Jail free" card to the US economy ... A D9 Cat in every European driveway?... if you get my drift!
Imo, the best way to view these so-called Currency Wars is in the context of opposing NFL Football teams who, in spite of intense rivalry "on the Field", will band together as one when their pre-eminent "code" is threatened from "outside" by, say Soccer.
...and so it goes.

http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Daily Gold Market Report has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.


Closing Excerpts:

A drop in the U.S. dollar and continued violence in Iraq ... encouraged an element of safe-haven positioning ahead of the weekend.

Against this backdrop, Comex December gold futures closed up $2.90 for the session at $438.30.

"Gold continues to maintain its strong uptrend and, at this point, the commodity funds and individual traders have no reason not to bid up the price in anticipation of a move to $450 an ounce," said Dale Doelling, chief market commentator at Bullion.com in Chicago.

"Talk that the Bush administration's resolve regarding a strong dollar may be waning just helped to add fuel to the selling of the greenback," he said. The dollar has stabilized from historical lows hit this week, but its tone is negative as focus remains on U.S. deficits.

From here, the next significant point on the technical chart for gold prices is $446, the monthly high back in 1983, said Doelling.

"A close above that would probably put the market into overdrive, taking it well above $500," he said.

"A close below $432 would signal that a short-term top may have been made, but that would not negate the long-term trend."

...Spot gold was also carried higher and hit $439.05 an ounce and the highest level since 1988 late morning in New York. "There were a lot of things supporting gold today and they don't look like they're going away over the weekend. They'll still be in place going forward," said a dealer with a New York-based European investment bank.

Aside from concerns over the weakening U.S. currency and geopolitical turbulence, one new supportive factor for gold is the pending launch of two major gold Exchange Traded Funds which are expected to tap into any pools of demand among U.S. investors hitherto unprepared or ill-equipped to invest in the commodity markets.

The World Gold Council's streetTRACKS gold fund is expected to be launched on the New York Stock Exchange in the coming weeks, while Barclays Global Investors are seen launching the iShares Comex Gold Trust on the American Stock Exchange shortly after. Both offer exposure to the bullion market in the form of a gold-backed security.

"There is a sense that if these things take off there'll be new sources of demand, so that was helping sentiment in the market today," said George Gero, a senior vice president at Legg Mason Wood Walker.

-----(see url for access to full news, 24-hr international newswire)----

http://www.metimes.com/2K4/issue2004-46/bus/dubai_and_india.htmdubai, nov 9

Dubai, the self-styled "City of Gold", and India, the world's largest consumer of the yellow metal, are forming a Dubai Gold and Commodity Exchange (DGCX) to become operational in the second half of 2005, officials announced Tuesday.

The Dubai Metals and Commodities Centre (DMCC), Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd (MCX) and Financial Technologies (India) Ltd (FTIL) have signed a memorandum of understanding to create the exchange in Dubai, a significant player on the international gold market which provides a gateway to India, where 700 tons of physical gold are consumed annually.

"This landmark achievement unfolds the real potential of the Indian technology expertise and the domain knowledge of its human intellectual capital," said Jignesh Shah, MCX managing director and FTIL chairman.

Colin Griffith, DMCC's executive director for gold and precious metals sector, said "I believe the initiative we're undertaking will increase the total size of Dubai's gold trade."

----(from url)----

Simply another article on this previously covered news.

R.

http://www.advisor.ca/news/today/article.jsp%3Bjsessionid=DHGBDIFENAPI?content=20041112_150315_3896(November 12, 2004) -- ...China is now beginning its transformation into a consumer-driven economy, as prosperity moves inland from the industrialized coastline.

...Of course, investing in China carries the same risks, to varying degrees, as any other foreign investment, including currency valuation risks.

-----(from url)----

Bottom line: coupled with the increasingly liberalized gold market in China, this bodes well for gold.

R.

http://money.cnn.com/2004/11/12/markets/gold/index.htm?cnn=yes NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Gold closed at a 16-year high in New York Friday...

Traders said gold had been "remarkably resilient" this week given the fall in oil prices and stocks surging to near 2-1/2 year highs, although the metal was still hooked mainly into currency moves.

"We have seen good interest from funds, along with some bouts of profit-taking. But whenever we see that, new customers are stepping in," David Holmes, vice-president at RBC Capital Markets said.

"The outlook for gold is positive and we have broken through some critical resistance levels."

Analysts said improved sentiment in gold was also linked to talk of the imminent listing in New York of a new exchange traded fund for the metal.

----(from url)-----

Gold slowly but surely gaining mainstream attention. Lock in your claim while prices remain at undervalued levels.

R.

Sure you & the hobbits just had to pull the lever on Gold...First time I never wanted it to go up and wham!!! Oh well so much for my Queen :-))) Maybe if I hang around for another 5/6 yrs I'll connect one day....regards....YGM

"GO GOLD" & "GO GATA"...."GO HOBBITS"

I'm not exactly sure what you are referring to , but Social Security as an independent program regularly takes in more than it pays out, it runs a surplus , and has for many years. It is true that this surplus has regularly been used to fund other government activities, hence you sometimes hear the idea of putting the Trust Fund in a" lock box". It is also true that due to demographic changes, at some point in the future there will no longer be an annual surplus but an annual deficit and this deficit will have to be reconciled in some way.

http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html

Ok ladies and gentlemen I have a comment and question. It appears that next week there will be a new open end gold fund to be traded under the symbol GLD. After a year and a half of screwing around "they" pull this rabbit out of the hat just as gold has made a multi year high. Coincidence, I think not. Question for discussion is what is to prevent any entity from shorting this instrument and thus putting pressure on real gold through arbitrage? Since this is an open ended fund, always buying and selling real metal there would be a direct corelation between the fund and the real market. Do we not have the potential for an entity with deep pockets to short this indefinately, especially since no metal will ever have to be delivered, only payment made for any short losses. If these losses were covered by an entity which could print money at will, where is the upside? My cynicism runnith over. Help.

http://www.interfax.com/com?id=5757170⁢em=ChinSNIP:

Tan explained that the trading procedure was simple, as gold is only sold through bank counters, and client just need to fill a anonymous purchase form. "We only conducted gold spot trading at present stage, and aren't considering deferred spot trading or futures trading for the near future." Tan explained CMB would not take risks, since regulations on these kinds of individual trading had not yet been released. As Interfax previously reported, the SGE launched a new trading form-deferred spot trading in August, which sparked industry insiders' predictions that China will soon allow gold futures trading.

Gaosai'er provided 100 kilograms of gold bars to Guangzhou Branch of CMB before September 22, the first day of private gold trading. "Those gold bars are traded now in local four sub-branches- Tiyudong, Tianhebei, Shimao, and Fanyu," told Tan. According to Tan, the gold trading fee was a base RMB 1.5/gram (USD 0.18/gram), clients should pay the bank RMB 3.5/gram (USD 0.42/gram) for processing fees, and clients will be paid RMB 2/gram (USD 0.24/gram) more if they sell gold back to the bank. There is only a RMB 1.5/gram (USD 0.18/gram) difference between processing fee and sales price per gram, explained Tan.

Furthermore, Tan revealed the CMB would probably start to offer individual bank loans based on gold at the end of this year, individual clients could mortgage gold to get loans from bank for to participate in the gold exchange. "It is the same principle as you mortgaging your property to get a loan to purchase another apartment using only a little cash. Individual clients only can pay cash worth only 10% of the total purchase price to buy gold, if they are offered bank loans worth 80% at most of total price with mortgaged gold bars," Tan said. He suggested this kind of bank loans could allow clients to exchange gold more conveniently. According to Tan, CMB is applying for permission to offer this bank loan service from China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC), China's bank regulator.

---------------------------

In the US you get a mortgage for a house. In China you now can get a mortgage for a purchase of PHYSICAL gold.

Interesting.

Take care.

PA

Greetings Sir Phil:

I have thought the same thing (that the ETF will be yet another tool by which TPTB suppress the paper price of gold) only to conclude that this is likely not the case. The reason I say this is that, if the ETF's role is to serve as another paper control on the POG, it is duplicative. There already exists a very effective and time-tested mechanism to paperize the POG a la the COMEX markets (i.e. there exist roughly fifty times the number of paper claims against a finite amount of deliverable, physical gold).

No, I believe that the ETF is a vehicle for the retail investor to latch on his / her 401k, IRA, paper savings, etc. to a ship that announced this week that it is leaving the harbor. You are correct. There is no coincidence in POG breaking through $435 this week and the announcement that the ETF will begin trading next week. It is as much a political move as it is a financial move. IMO, TPTB realize that gold is about to embark on the path predicted by Another and FOA and they want to provide the retail investor with a ready means by which he / she can participate in the meteoric rise in POG which we will soon witness. This is the first of the final three shoes to drop. The other two are:

* Opening of the IPE (Iranian Petroleum Exchange) in March 2005 where all trades will be made iin Euros.
* China de-pegs the Yuan from the dollar which could happen any day now.

I may be wrong. I often am.

Take care.

PA

They talk GOLD on CNN, CNBC, JPM.....so watch out they will hit us again like last time. Just an opinion... from experience though; although it could be different this time.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/hanlon110904.html"Keep in mind, however, that this article is being written largely in an effort to help those that want to hold gold as a long-term investment stick with it in coming months by preparing them for the volatility we will almost certainly face." �

"�that investors who don't yet own gold, but want to, shouldn't get cute in trying to save a few dollars by picking some clever pullback. Those investors need to take action and simply get in."

"�a 2-year chart of gold over the course of 2002-2003�"�."What I suspect many investors have by now forgotten is the sharp pullback that followed; as can also be seen, the metal retraced that entire advance, retreating back into the mid-$320's. This is classic technical action-classic."

"So, you may be asking: is Hanlon suggesting we're going to see a quick spurt toward the $500 level, then a pullback all the way back here to $430 or so?"�

"A long-term chart of the dollar shows something very important: there is huge, I mean HUGE, dollar support near 80 on that same index, an area where a massive triple-bottom was built over the course of 5 years on the early 1990's."�" If I'm right, the dollar's breakdown will lead it to push down toward the 80 level, but I do not believe for a second that this support zone will go down without a fight."

"Now, I know it's hard to imagine what could allow the dollar to mount a meaningful rally from here; heck, we're even seeing some of the mainstream Wall Street firms warn that the dollar might be due for a fall� they're 3 years and a 30% decline late to the party, of course, but thanks for the warning, guys."

P.A., phil288,

Glad that this discussion is coming up. I don't follow the paper mechanisms very closely so I haven't the foggiest if this new ETF is going to be good or bad for POG.

Maybe Ari, T.C, miner49 and the other folks that follow these markets can offer their opinions.

The one thing that does bother me is that the engineer of this business is the WGC. That bothers me a lot, when is the last time they have done anything positive for gold? BTW, where is Chris Thompson? I thought he was going to be the savior of the World Gold Council.

TIA

The Shadow � a story by Hans Christian Andersen

Once upon a time, there was a handsome young man, of good family; he was intelligent and studious, quiet and gentlemanly. The young man had a Shadow, and since he was given to solitary life, he used to talk with his Shadow. He talked about many things, life and death, work and play, and about all things human. The Shadow always agreed with him, for that is they way shadows are.

There was a lovely young princess who lived across the street from him. From his balcony he could see her, and listen to her playing the piano. But, he could not speak to her - they had not been introduced. As he leaned from his balcony, he saw that his shadow reached across the way, to the princess� apartment. "Go across, dear Shadow, and speak to the princess of my love."

So the Shadow left the young man, and went to the princess. He talked with amazing wisdom and wit, which he had learned from his master. The princess was enchanted. She fell in love with the Shadow. And the Shadow, instead of speaking to her about his master's love for her, courted her for himself. Soon they were engaged to be married.

The young man heard of this. He was outraged. "What! A Shadow marrying a king's daughter! This cannot be!" He went to the newspapers with the news. The king's police heard about this, and arrested the young man for defaming the king's prospective son-in-law and future heir.

So the young man was hanged.

+++++

And what does this have to do with gold?

Well, you see, paper money is gold's Shadow. Once upon a time, the Shadow was nothing, only a representation of gold payable upon demand. Then, the Shadow slipped away on its own. It imitated its Master in everything, and so people took it for something on its own, and forgot the Master � gold.

And now the Shadow struts about as if it were worth something, but it is still nothing. And the Master, Gold, has practically had to go begging.

And we all pay our deepest respects to the paper Shadow, and apologize for our interest in his poor ex-Master, Gold. So now, the whole world revolves upon the health of � a cursed, vain and pompous Shadow.

Such is the world. Hans Christian Andersen � a very wise and good Dane.

The GAB

The Hobbits love your stories !
<;-)

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=$GOLD,PLTB[PA][DA][F!3!!]⪯f=GThe GOLD P&F Chart is now showing what we have been awaiting ! The SKY is now the limit ! The GOLD P&F Chart now shows the BREAKOUT, with the BULLISH Price Objective of $476. (or is that $478.)--- as my eyes are still watering !
OK, for only two Dollars difference, I won't "fuss" !
JUMP SPOT, JUMP !!
<;-)

Sir GAB - "And we all pay our deepest respects to the paper Shadow, and apologize for our interest in his poor ex-Master, Gold. So now, the whole world revolves upon the health of � a cursed, vain and pompous Shadow."

...sss... and are the physical Gold-holders to take the blame and be 'hanged' by the Powers then, when (para-phrasing)-

"He went to the newspapers with the (Truth). The king's police heard about this, and arrested (Gold) for defaming the king's (Gold-shadow). So the (Gold-holder) was hanged." ?

S.

441.7 ... 441.7 ... 441.7 ...

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$XAU,uu[h,a]daoayiay[dc][pb200!f][vc60][iut!Uh89,21!Lp88,21,3]⪯f=GHaving looked at ALL the charts, (including this one on the $XAU), and even trying Sir Rich's trick with a Rhode Island "RED", I am concluding that Monday's GOLD action will be very similar to that of Friday, and your CHANT (441.7 ... 441.7 ... 441.7 ...) will be VERY CLOSE !
BUT, maybe just a little short !
<;-)

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ THE "PRICE of GOLD" GUESSING CONTEST!! $$$$$$$$$$$$

TAA TAA TAAAAAAAAAAAAA, TAA TAA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !

Listed in order of decreasing values !
----

$$$ $8,752.0 $$$ The Invisible Hand (11/6/04; 02:45:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 126118)

$$$ $1,200.0 $$$ LimitUp (11/10/04; 21:44:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 126289)

$$$$ $575.2 $$$$ Sprout (11/5/04; 15:19:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 126103)

$$$$ $499.0 $$$$ Caradoc (11/6/04; 04:35:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 126120)

$$$$ $467.0 $$$$ jenika (11/6/04; 05:55:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 126122)

$$$$ $456.5 $$$$ Gene (11/5/04; 11:03:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 126096)

$$$$ $454.5 $$$$ mackattack (11/6/04; 18:24:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 126127)

$$$$ $452.7 $$$$ Dollar Bill (11/10/04; 17:58:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 126272)

$$$$ $451.6 $$$$ mikal (11/5/04; 13:35:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 126099)

$$$$ $450.1 $$$$ Cometose (11/7/04; 13:14:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 126136)
$$$$ $450.0 $$$$ Lothar of the Hill People (11/5/04; 14:19:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 126101)
$$$$ $449.9 $$$$ slingshot (11/8/04; 16:12:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 126172)

$$$$ $448.8 $$$$ Toolie (11/7/04; 14:32:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 126137)

$$$$ $448.1 $$$$ Buongiorno! (11/9/04; 10:25:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 126196)

$$$$ $447.5 $$$$ Waverider (11/07/04; 01:23:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 126130)

$$$$ $447.3 $$$$ GratefulForGold (11/10/04; 21:01:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 126287)

$$$$ $446.9 $$$$ HOOSIER GOLDBUG (11/9/04; 15:27:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 126211)

$$$$ $446.3 $$$$ Sundeck (11/6/04; 04:20:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 126119)

$$$$ $445.2 $$$$ J-Bullion (11/8/04; 14:12:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 126167)

$$$$ $444.5 $$$$ DoubleEagle (11/8/04; 02:27:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 126152)
$$$$ $444.4 $$$$ Zhisheng (11/4/04; 10:56:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 126063)
$$$$ $441.1 $$$$ makcumka (11/10/04; 06:27:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 126242)
$$$$ $444.0 $$$$ Shapur (11/9/04; 13:22:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 126204)

$$$$ $443.2 $$$$ Rimh (11/9/04; 09:45:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 126188)

$$$$ $442.5 $$$$ Noble1 (11/5/04; 18:23:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 126110)

$$$$ $442.1 $$$$ Gandalf the White (11/10/04; 18:56:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 126278)

$$$$ $441.7 $$$$ Smeagol (11/5/04; 17:15:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 126105)

$$$$ $441.0 $$$$ Druid (11/10/04; 21:31:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 126288)

$$$$ $440.8 $$$$ Shermag (11/9/04; 11:36:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 126199)

$$$$ $440.0 $$$$ shawnis (11/8/04; 20:28:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 126175)

$$$$ $439.8 $$$$ Golden Era (11/10/04; 05:29:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 126239)

$$$$ $439.6 $$$$ Rustee (11/5/04; 09:02:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 126086)

$$$$ $439.4 $$$$ goldquest (11/10/04; 19:38:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 126280)

$$$$ $439.2 $$$$ Goldendome (11/9/04; 21:38:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 126230)

$$$$ $438.9 $$$$ Liberty Head (11/5/04; 21:37:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 126116)
$$$$ $438.8 $$$$ Rocky (11/9/04; 17:52:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 126218)

$$$$ $438.5 $$$$ White Hills (11/10/04; 11:52:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 126260)

$$$$ $438.2 $$$$ glockmaster19 (11/9/04; 16:05:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 126213)

$$$$ $437.7 $$$$ Canuck Gold (11/9/04; 22:40:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 126234)

$$$$ $437.5 $$$$ Felix the Cat (11/9/04; 19:53:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 126222)

$$$$ $437.0 $$$$ innerline (11/10/04; 11:35:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 126259)

$$$$ $436.8 $$$$ goldenpeace (11/10/04; 16:18:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 126270)

$$$$ $436.5 $$$$ pilgrims_gold (11/10/04; 06:12:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 126241)

$$$$ $436.0 $$$$ killerjay_47 (11/10/04; 10:06:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 126253)

$$$$ $435.5 $$$$ YGM (11/7/04; 09:39:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 126133)

$$$$ $435.0 $$$$ Camel (11/10/04; 14:16:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 126264)

$$$$ $434.5 $$$$ balzac (11/9/04; 09:58:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 126190)

$$$$ $434.3 $$$$ Tevye (11/10/04; 12:36:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 126261)

$$$$ $434.0 $$$$ Black Blade (11/10/04; 20:57:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 126286)

$$$$ $433.8 $$$$ R Powell (11/10/04; 15:50:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 126268)

$$$$ $433.5 $$$$ timbervision (11/10/04; 20:23:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 126283)

$$$$ $433,3 $$$$ Shanti (11/8/04; 14:53:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 126169)

$$$$ $433.0 $$$$ Gondolin (11/10/04; 03:13:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 126237)

$$$$ $432.5 $$$$ John the Jute (11/9/04; 08:41:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 126187)

$$$$ $432.0 $$$$ TheJuniorMiner (11/10/04; 08:55:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 126248)

$$$$ $431.6 $$$$ servantHeart (11/5/04; 10:26:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 126092)

$$$$ $431.0 $$$$ DryWasher (11/4/04; 16:13:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 126074

$$$$ $430.2 $$$$ GoldCoaster (11/10/04; 22:57:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 126292)

$$$$ $429.9 $$$$ Wky_Woodsman (11/10/04; 20:43:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 126284)

$$$$ $429.5 $$$$ The Hoople (11/9/04; 12:08:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 126200)
$$$$ $429.4 $$$$ Legolas (11/9/04; 20:49:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 126226)

$$$$ $429.1 $$$$ mudr (11/7/04; 21:59:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 126147)

$$$$ $428.4 $$$$ NTgeo (11/10/04; 20:52:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 126285)

$$$$ $427.0 $$$$ Clink! (11/7/04; 12:25:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 126135)

$$$$ $426.5 $$$$ Topaz (11/4/04; 16:13:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 126075)

$$$$ $425.5 $$$$ wehappyfew (11/10/04; 19:27:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 126279)

$$$$ $424.5 $$$$ 7nomads (11/10/04; 18:42:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 126276)

$$$$ $424.2 $$$$ Tranquility Base (11/10/04; 17:50:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 126271)

$$$$ $423.2 $$$$ Tiburon (11/10/04; 20:20:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 126282)

$$$$ $422.3 $$$$ The Knife (11/5/04; 10:03:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 126089)

$$$$ $419.5 $$$$ Golden Lionheart (11/7/04; 17:13:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 126140)

$$$$ $000.0 $$$$ TomJIl (11/6/04; 16:21:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 126126)

===
<;-)

http://www.usagold.com/buy-gold-coins.html

We thinks you has as much fun (maybe more, precious), O Whitest of Wizards, watching Dollarfall, than Goldrise! (cackle)

As for our Guess... yess, we felt need to light a little fire under it... we knows it will get there eventually, we jusst needs it there a bit sooner... ssay on Monday close! (grin)

S.

...which smothers the rock
breaking blades that cut paper...
Gold prices them all.

Sir Gandalf,

Thanks for your efforts in updating and managing these contests. No small task. As I peruse the list and associate the handles (previous posts) and guesses (bullish and bearish) it's a motley crew I see. I enjoy the diversity. Thanks---everybody for your contributions to this forum.

The last few times I've seen Sir makcumba he has appeared rather uncomfortable. Perhaps you can give him a pillow or simply reposition him.

Remember:

Usually, when prospecting, the odds are long but the stakes are high and we associate the find with tangible value. Ask anyone to define a prospector and they will describe a goldminer.

Noble1

http://www.indiadaily.com/editorial/11-10-04.asp
Russian President Putin planning to glue together the most powerful superpower coalition in the world - India, China, Russia and Brazil

By Sudhir Chadda
Special Correspondent
India Daily.com
11-11-4

Russian President Putin is taking a lead role in putting together the most powerful coalition of regional and superpowers in the world. The coalition consists of India, China, Russia and Brazil. This will challenge the superpower supremacy of America as well as the European Union. The Chinese are concerned about American and European influence over the world. So is India, Brazil and Russia. Russians need Brazil badly. Brazil is in South America in the American corridor. According to Stratfor, a strategic think tank, when Russian President Vladimir Putin visits Brazil Nov. 21-23, he likely will talk economic issues with Brazilian President Luiz Inacio "Lula" da Silva. However, Putin has bigger ambitions: He wants to establish a long-term Russian footprint in Latin America in order to expand Moscow's geopolitical influence in the region. Brazil is very open to the coalition concept where these large countries support each other in term of trade, economics, international politics and defense.

According other think tanks, this coalition will have an overwhelming influence over the United Nations. Russia and China are permanent members of the security council. India and Brazil are in the process of becoming the same. In terms of population, the coalition will have three quarters of the world population, largest amount of natural resources and largest pool of technical and scientific talent.

http://www.gateway2russia.com/art.p...nt=&grandparent
By selling US dollars and securities and assets denominated in the US currency, Russia is diversifying its currency reserves, which is in line with the Russian Central Bank's policy, Andrey Illarionov, economic adviser to the Russian president, said in an interview with ITAR-TASS today. Illarionov is taking part in an international conference "Capital expansion: from a national to a transnational economy" which is being held here. (NWO, hint, hint!)

The Russian expert expressed this view following reports in the British media today saying that Russia, India and China are getting rid of their dollar assets and that this may lead to the dollar exchange rate falling further. According to Illarionov, over the last few days the Russian Central Bank has made no secret of its intention to expand the basis of its currency reserves, including by investing currency reserves in the acquisition of euros.

Source: ITAR-TASS news agency, Moscow
BBC Monitoring

http://www.pravda.us/main/18/89/358/10771_default.htmlSNIPPET:

About 80 percent of Russia's reserve funds - more than $64 billion - are being currently stored in foreign banks in the form of the US Treasury liabilities and other "stocks." Russian money is working for Americans. Saving money in someone else's pockets is a very interesting thing to do. Do Kremlin officials know what is going to happen, if they attempt to invest that money in Russia? It would be enough to recollect the events of the year 1917. The world's largest country had a self-sufficient economy and the richest gold reserve. The national currency was converted on the base of the gold standard. As a result, the foreign capital started developing the Russian national wealth very actively, and the golden money started flowing abroad. Then the country experienced a "small" revolution. Sly people advised the country's ruler to transfer gold reserves to foreign banks to get out of harm's way. The interest was saved for six years, then there was a world war, a "bigger" revolution, the collapse of the state, the execution of the Tsar.. Western banks simply appropriated the Russian gold - towards the debt and their citizens' losses

Is there a need to repeat history? A "small" revolution in the form of the default took place in August of 1998. The golden reserve has been taken abroad too. One shall assume, one should prepare for a "bigger revolution" to happen. Probably, the affair with five billion dollars will pale in comparison.

Nikolay Konkov

ALL this time Sir Zhisheng was HUGGING him tightly -- and I missed that he was out of place !
I have Sir Druid hugging him NOW !
<;-)

Ned, P.A., Phil288,

I'm glad you are continuing this discussion on the ETFs. My gut feeling is that they will be gold positive (i.e. contribute to an increasing price of gold).

Given KISS - they're a good thing. As I understand "them", (actually "it" as I am referring only to what I know about the WGC GLD fund), they require fiat to be exchanged for physical. FIAT-FOR-PHYSICAL. KISS. Unlimited supply chasing limited supply. KISS-supply/demand.

KISS:

-Gold: has a known and predictable increase in supply that is relatively stable. Stable supply is the constant.

-Fiat: Bernanke "We have something known as a printing press..." we all know where that goes.

-Demand for gold is unpredictable. But, right now, being the goldbugs that we are, I think we can all agree that we face increasing demand.

Regardless.

-What we do know is: Keep It Simple Stupid

increased demand/stable supply=increased value

decreased demand/stable supply=decreased value

no change demand/stable supply=no change value

But wait a minute. Stable supply? We all know that CBs and BBs and some unnamed mining companies have been dumping onto the market both real and imagined gold. Doesn't that affect the supply side of the equation? Of course it has. The key word is "has". They were able to flood the market, as needed, with physical (London sales, carry trade sales, Fort Knox?[I'd like an audit please]) and of course paper derivatives (they had no trouble finding suitable mining counterparties to replace physical) as CBs wield much influence. "HAS"=was happening. Resulted in $250 gold. Now let's look at what "IS" happening-We are currently seeing a crack in the dam with mining companies, U-NO-WHO, firing staff, reversing hedgebooks/buying to cover, and CB gold sales becoming more transparent and limited (who's the seller nowww???) and yes, CBs buying! $438 gold. +++ETFs.

Granted, the physical in the ETF must be entrusted to a depository. But that's where the R&F keep theirs. I have always preferred to take physical gold in possession. However, there are many individuals and entities that are either unable or unwilling to perform that task. And their funds dwarf ours. The ETFs give the first opportunity for the masses of IRAs, 401Ks, regular brokerage account holders, others, to buy and sell the closest thing to physical gold that I have ever seen, in a manner in which they are accustomed (through their current broker). Kinda goes back to a century+ ago when gold was money and banks were allowed to issue script backed by physical. We all know what happened then. Not good. That's where I'm counting on (hoping) that the SEC has taken it's time to insure that the paper share is as described. If they work as advertised, each share will represent 1/10th oz. of physical gold on deposit. No more, no less. What remains to be seen is if this encumbrence of the physical gold tightens the physical supply and removes it from the papergold market. I hadn't considered Phil288's assertation that these shares can be shorted by the fiat crowd-thus continuing their manipulative practices. Again, my gut feeling is that the transparency in the NYSE would illuminate these transactions and make them more difficult to accomplish with any degree of long term success. Even if these shares are shorted, it is much less invasive than other derivative insruments that are currently being employed. Short sales must be covered. They don't simply just expire. (Who cares if it expires worthless- worthless by who's calculation- it was accomplished for some goal-by fiat-in unlimited supply at virtually no cost). Short sales, however, are visible and must be covered. As we all know "he who sells what isn't his'n must buy it back or go to pris'n".

Yes, my friends, I feel it is the time of the season. If the WGC were in collusion with the PTB to suppress the POG, this product would have been allowed into the market long ago and done it's job. Instead, it's introduction has been delayed and delayed until, well, they no longer could delay it. All I know is that the new found funds are going to enter the into the demand side of the equation for physical. Now, the PTB may have already entered this into their calculations and that may have been factored into and the reason for the recent run-up in the POG. Believe me, they have secured all the physical that they feel is necessary to meet the demand that is coming and if they need more, they will lower the lease rate and encourage mining counterparties to sell and commit future production so they can provide immediate supply.(Or confiscate?---consider historic gold coins when buying). But what if they have they secured all that they can but not all that is necessary? What if the demand outstrips the supply? OOOOh. That's the makings of a super bull market. That's where I feel we're headed folks. As mentioned previously, we've seen them try to flood the past market. Absorbed. Now we're seeing timidity and a slow bullish progression. With the ETFs, we're going to see a sharp increase in the demand side of the equation, a corresponding attempt to supply (flood) and scare out the weaklings--carrying with it a short term correction---, followed by an overwhelming demand side bid for physical that can only be met by significantly higher prices.

PG in possesion will always be the ultimate form of security and privacy. Keep that in mind. An ounce of gold will always be an ounce of gold-valued by someone-tradeable/saleable in private. I agree with "W", social scurity should be partially privitized. ETFs won't do it. Talk to our host about PGIP before the ETFs run up the price. Keep that PGIP as a wealth asset to draw upon (quietly) as you need it in your retirement or pass it on to your heirs. Gold's role as a wealth asset will become more apparent as the emperor (USD) is revealed. The current POG, as Alfred E. Neuman would say is "CHEAP".

More Later.

Remember:

The value of fiat is determined by it's

1) decree

2) ability to maintain it's value (not be inflated by it's
issuer)

3) confidence that it will be accepted by others, in the future, at a price that corresponds to the value you traded for it

consider

1) not going to change

2) who are you kidding

3) the wild card

Considering #3. If/and/or when that confidence is lost, gold will be the primary alternative/beneficiary.

Noble1

Thank goodness us preachers are outnumbered by "Teachers" here! I never missed high school, but I always missed this place when away...My education does improve, thanks to this round table of thinkers and scribes....YGM

Further to my earlier posts on this subject @ msgs 126323, 126315 and 126297:

A simple estimation of the effect of Barrick's hedge-book on their future viability can be gained from the following:

1. From their last quarterly report their gross sales for the quarter were $500M, from 1.23M oz of gold.

2. Their net profit after tax was $32M, amounting to 6.4% of sales.

3. This figure of $32M was after an "opportunity cost" of $9M incurred by the voluntary reduction of their hedge-book by 200,000 oz during the quarter.

4. Had Barrick not reduced their hedge-book by the 200,000 oz, their after tax profit would have been about $41M, corresponding to 8.2% of sales.

5. Now...consider that Barrick has about 86 M oz in proven and probable reserves (which they are depleting at about 5-6 M oz annually), approximately 72 M oz of which are unhedged. If we suppose that their margins remain unchanged over the lifetime of the operation, and no new reserves are added, then an 8.2% margin means their total life-of-mine profit (from unhedged gold) will be equivalent to the sale of 8.2% of 72 M oz, that is 5.9M oz, for which they are able to pocket the whole dollar amount as profit.

6. However...they are still hedged by 13.7 M oz which they have contracted to sell at some indefinite price, variable over time, but which is likely to turn out to be a lot less than the spot price of gold going forward.

7. If they can mine and sell this much gold without loss at their contracted prices, then they will still walk away at the end with a profit equivalent to, or greater than, the cost-free sale of 5.9M oz of gold.

8. However, as they emphasise in their quarterly report, input costs are "inflating". We do not know what realisable prices they have contracted, going forward, but it is not inconceivable that they may take sizeable losses on that 13.7 M oz of hedged gold. A 43% loss (equivalent to 5.9 M oz) would mean that their entire operation would just break even over its lifetime.

9. This all assumes that they do not add to their reserves (which they will).

10. Mixed up in all of this is the covenant relating to Consolidated Net Worth, that Boilermaker has drawn attention to. As time goes by, reserves are used up, margins get clipped, the calculation of CNW may lead to default. It is then that a deeply underwater hedge-book position would become an acute embarrassment (even though its losses are not explicitly included in the calculation of CNW).

11. My gut feeling is that funds from a bond issue will be used to reduce their hedge-book directly, although they could use it to buy additional low-cost-of-mining reserves, if such reserves can be sourced. Of course, everyone will be after gold (especially low-cost-of-mining reserves) going forward, so they will inevitably come at a premium price.

12. A bond issue gives Barrick time...essentially replacing (part of) a hedge-book that may blow-up in their face with a measured interest payment (depreciating in value over time due to inflation) and a repayment of principal which will be greatly depreciated in value. The bond holders will lose in the future, while Barrick either rids itself of part of its hedge-book "lemon" now or adds greatly appreciating gold reserves to its assets for increased exposure to the future price of gold.

13. Not a bad strategy, I would have thought...comments??

14. Another factor that may be considered is Barrick's perception of the likely outcome from the Blanchard case (they may be making provision now for what could be an "unpleasant" outcome).


FWIW and DYODD

:-)

Sundeck

http://www.iht.com/articles/2004/11/12/business/euro.html
At its current rate of increase, the euro would hit $1.40 by the middle of January. At 4 p.m. Friday in New York, it was trading at $1.2973, down slightly from a record of $1.3005 set Wednesday.

"We have to accept that we are in a long-lasting dollar bear market that will drive the euro to new heights," said Thomas Mayer, the chief European economist at Deutsche Bank. "If it happens in an orderly way, Europe can handle it. If it comes as a shock, it will pull the seats out from under people."

END SNIP:

I remain in awe of many gold afficiondos misunderstandings of the internationational monetary system .... when federal reserve corp. dollar is dearly valued on FOREX, it usually indicates a US economy that is vibrant and performing very well, and the reward for a vibrant economy is inexpensive gold priced in dollars relative to the basket of derivative currencies .... when the US economy under performs, the dollars notional value declines, the price of gold in dollar terms rises along with the notional values of the ponzi derivative currencies ....

The Euro is not IMO a valid indicator of golds potential precisely because it is directly linked to price of gold much the same as US dollar .... the Euro actually obscures the potential "real" value of gold in international market terms.

The SF IMO is a much better indicator .... namely that price of gold SHOULD be declining in SF terms as price gold rises in dollar and Euro terms ....!

Hows that for a curve ball .....

http://www.islamicmint.com/newsarticles/launch.html
SNIP:

The traditional Muslim coins and the deeper significance
of their reappearance as currency

The launch of the gold dinar and silver dirham marked a significant breakthrough in the coin's return into the realm of usage. The Islamic Gold Dinar was the currency of the Muslim community from its first years right up to the fall of the Osmanli Khalifate, and was ousted precisely by the persistent infiltration of non-Shari�i money instruments into the Muslim societies, by those forces wishing to harness the vast wealth of the Islamic homelands.

Because of the fundamental political consequences of the introduction of paper money instruments into the Ummah, the reintroduction of the gold money can be expected to be an equally significant milestone in the changing tides of the world economic � hence social � situation.

END SNIP

Key Words:

"the persistent 'infiltration' of non-Shari�i money instruments (Paper Money) into the Muslim societies, by 'those forces' wishing to 'harness the vast wealth' of the Islamic homelands"

"Money power denounces, as public enemies, all who question its methods or throw light upon its crimes." --Wm. Jennings Bryan

"History records that the money changers have used every form of abuse, intrigue, deceit, and violent means possible to maintain their control over governments by controlling money and it's issuance". -- James Madison

Inspired by GAB, I found a short story of gold for our enjoyment. This one is by the brothers Grimm.
______________

In the winter time, when deep snow lay on the ground, a poor boy was forced to go out on a sledge to fetch wood. When he had gathered it together, and packed it, he wished, as he was so frozen with cold, not to go home at once, but to light a fire and warm himself a little. So he scraped away the snow, and as he was thus clearing the ground, he found a tiny golden key.
Hereupon he thought that where the key was, the lock must be also, and dug in the ground and found an iron chest.
"If the key does but fit it!" thought he; "no doubt there are precious things in that little box." He searched, but no keyhole was there. At last he discovered one, but so small that it was hardly visible. He tried it, and the key fitted it exactly.
Then he turned it once round, and now we must wait until he has quite unlocked it and opened the lid, and then we shall learn what wonderful things were lying in that box.

____________

Ah yes! An open ended story for the holder of the golden key to finish, when the time is right.
Do you have your golden key?

Keys, get you some.

Best Wishes

http://www.usagold.com/buy-gold-coins.html

"Treasure chests throughout history
have been filled with gold, and not by idle choice."

-- R. Strauss

http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmxsf.htm For the second week in a row the commercials have increased their net long positions in both silver and gold. Only slightly in silver but bigtime in gold...?

Fwiw, in gold, the so-called large speculative traders, through the week ending 11/9/04, sold longs and added shorts to the tune of a net 16,458 fewer long positions. The commercials were net 13,581 contracts longer while the small specs added 2,877. Basically, if you believe the classification descriptions, the producers and end-users were bigtime buyers while the trend following speculative money was selling. It's not the usual scenario to see the specs selling so much while the POG is rising. It's usually the speculative money that drives up the price.

I know many don't care about such numbers but I believe some do. Any thoughts or comments?

P.S. Isn't Michael's birthday about this time of year? Happy belated or an early Happy wish to you!
rich

http://www.jonesheward.com/Commentary/p_Commentary.aspx...38 minutes of currencies, commodities and gold. Excellent listening.

From the mouth of the man.....USD is going down!

"Basic Points" (pdf) isn't bad either.

AND their OFF and RUNNING !
Go SPOT GO !

http://charts-d.quote.com:443/1002980432830?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=DX00Y∬erval=10&Ht=600&Wd=800&Display=2&Study=MA&Param1=13&Param2=0&Param3=&FontSize=10HERE is the LINK --- so that you too may watch the US$ ---
DIVE, DIVE, DIVE !
<;-)

Greetings American Expression, I think the guys at india times, are engageing in withful thinking. Not much of a superpower there financially.
When the euro cant take over reserve duties because of the immaturity of its financial system, how can india, russian china and brazil manage the trick?

The only way I could see russia, china, brazil and india join together is if the powers of the US dollar group and the euro group have agreed to allow it. And only because they are going to pass currency inflation bubbles around, and that group should and will take a turn. Right now the euro region is taking the hit, but really can india ever stand up to a currency rise in order to -share- the burden like the euro is now? I say no. And russia? I say no, Brazil? how can the population there stand that burden? China? it is said by the MIT group that in 10 years China will have 100 million --floating-- population. Meaning, there will be 100 million people without jobs or homes to live in. They arent going to disrupt the world order if they can help it !
What govt that is sane wants to deal with its millions of people all by themselves? During a recession I mean. Or depression. They are between a rock and a hard place.
The carrot the US group holds out is debt.
In troubled times to come, the present dollar order will handle the financial disorders and the countries that fall outside self maintenance, will be able to apply for loans and allowances, and when all the countries are on board, the pretense of paying back debt that the global central bankers give out, will gradually fall away to an --allowance system--. I think.

That data is from 11/2 Rich. They "should" put up 11/9 today ... however the "next" one ie: 11/16, will also prove VERY interesting. We watch!

You know , a strong currency is not all bad. Anyone who bought European Stocks or Bonds in the last 5 years is sitting pretty right now. I remember when FOA said he had completed transferring his assets to the Euro several years ago. That was when the Euro was at about at 87, now its at 128. Thats a pretty nice little gain just on the currency.

If your currency is weak it makes your exports easier to sell, and maybe will increase employment, so there is definitely an upside to a weak currency, especially if you have a big trade deficit like the US ,but with a strong currency you can buy more so you are richer.

http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/en/detail/_pages/charts/main.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1Hey...who startled Spot...he's at $439.6 as I write and on a tear...

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/wallenwein111204.htmlsnip;
"The Fed and Bush administration know that the euro's ultimate aim is by necessity to slowly attract foreign investors and central banks to the euro and away from the dollar. But they also know that an explosively upward rocketing euro will wreck the Europeans' major economies in a heartbeat. As a result, the US game is to allow the dollar to drop lower - and faster than the Europeans' fragile economies can tolerate!............The dollar-faction's best chances at regaining control, they believe, lie in speeding up that very process - way past the ECB's tolerance level - in an attempt to utterly destabilize the euro system, hoping for an eventual complete breakdown."


comment,
In the absence of US/Euro cooperation and coordination this may indeed become the US strategy. As Wallenwein suggests, a dangerous game of "chicken" on the world's monetary highway.

Good summary of the extremely complex factors surrounding Barrick's hedge book. One needs a "black box" model to see the various scenarios that can emerge. Bottom line is that Barrick has turned a gold mine into a hedge fund and possibly a toxic waste dump. Hopefully the Blanchard suit will go forward and expose why and how this was done.
The profit opportunity loss on 13.7 million ounces of gold (mark-to-market loss) will keep Barrick's stock price down and make aquisitions with Barrick stock highly dilutive. Cash flow needs to fund existing mine development and their buyback program are probably driving Barrick into the debt market.

In any case it's an easy call for this goldbug, no way in my golden play.

http://charts-d.quote.com:443/1002980432830?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=DX00Y∬erval=10&Ht=600&Wd=800&Display=2&Study=MA&Param1=13&Param2=0&Param3=&FontSize=10But that was early in the morn when GOLD was above $440. and just before the "Bookies" and the ESF boys got into the act !
Just look at the US$ games.
<;-(

The Big Picture

It seems to me that we devote a great deal of time and thought to particular events and particular conditions in our world today, with little conception of the "big picture" that shows us the general state of our world.

My view: the world has devolved to a general socialistic condition, as a consequence of the devolution of banking from sounder conditions, to unsound conditions. The creation around the world in the course of the 20th Century, of institutions known as "Central Banks" allowed the world-wide growth of "fractional banking" and its corollary, issuance of so-called money.

This introduction of fictitious money around the world, produced the ousting of gold and silver as money, due to the inevitable operation of Gresham's Law � which stated in simple terms says, "Bad money drives good money out of circulation".

This pleased governments, especially those built upon the process of election of governments by popular votes. Paper money allowed governments to spend and thus buy votes. Quite simple!

As a result, the world is now in a situation where economic health is no longer something naturally occurring as a result of the productive efforts of individuals, but is seen as something which is to be obtained from government policies, and measured by "growth".

The world is now living on artificiality, for "growth" as a government policy is artificial and not real.

The world is on "LIFE SUPPORT". That is certainly not a natural condition. In fact, just as in the case of an individual on life-support, it is the prelude to death. That is the "big picture".

So, all the news I read about economic events today, I regard as reports on the results of "life support" for the economic world. Nothing more, and really of no consequence for the ultimate outcome, which will be the decease of the patient.

No need to read the papers every day. No need to consider whether this or that policy here or there, will be successful. The outcome is clear: "life support" precedes death.

Of course, we know that we must still strive to produce an income, and that gold in itself does not produce an income. It serves to conserve a part of our surplus, known as savings, regardless of its day-to-day fluctuations, for gold always has been, and always will be, as long as humans survive, very highly esteemed and its possessors will always be the first in line to obtain the necessary things to maintain life.

Let the world remain on "life support" as long as it can be done; we cannot alter the fact. What we can and should do, as reasonable beings, is to provide ourselves with the means of survival when "life support" must end, as end it must: we must each obtain a reserve of gold. Do so today, at whatever price, for the sake of yourself and your loved ones. Pay no attention to the infinite jabbering in the papers and on the T.V.

Keep the big picture in mind, and resolve to be happy!

The GAB

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=aXU7mTwsBAyI&refer=us.

Mopping up U.S. Treasuries in the short mid-term, the Federal Reserve's trading desk today intervened in the open market, buying outright $1.198 billion in securities maturing between May 2008 and May 2009, thus 'permanently' injecting into the banking system's money supply fresh cash created expressly for this operation.

The Fed also today provided additional, 'temporary' reserves through 52-day repurchase agreements totalling $4 billion and used overnight repos to add $5 billion.

Thus is new money easily made and thus has the world's papery savings seen itself put into jeopardy and destruction on a migrating basis from nation to nation. When the turn comes to your own homeland, will you be safely out of harm's way in gold?

R.

http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html

http://www.usagold.com/gold-price.htmlThe daily chart looks like a good buying opportunity because the weekly chart, the monthly chart, the one-year chart, the five-year chart, and the 20-yr chart all show the hallmarks of a strong trend continuing higher.

Judge for yourself. See url.

R.

The intriguing thing with todays action TC is Euro PoG AND $ PoG BOTH plunged significantly and in unison.
This IS unusual!...and MAY indicate potential across the board PoG spikes in the near term.

http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh96629_2004-11-15_17-23-26_n15248047_newsmlHEADLINE: Mexico launches 1,000-peso bill, consumers skeptical

MEXICO CITY, Nov 15 (Reuters) - Mexico introduced a 1,000-peso ($88) bill on Monday, replacing 500 pesos as the largest note...

...introduced over the next couple of years as smaller notes are removed from circulation.

The central bank says studies it has done show the new bills are increasingly needed....

"For example there are (car) gas tanks now that you can't fill with 500 pesos," central bank director Manuel Galan told reporters.

A massive off-the-books economy in Mexico, where most people do not use credit cards and the majority of families stash their savings at home, likely accounts for part of the demand for the new note, the bank says.

But many will rarely use the new note.

...Even though Mexico is largely a cash economy, it is often difficult to find change in stores and restaurants for even a 200 peso bill. Breaking a thousand in many shops is bound to be hard.

"I keep 500 pesos at most in the cash register as a matter of security," said convenience store manager Hugo Lugo. "Why don't I have change? Because this is a store, not a bank."

The central bank's director Galan cautioned the new bill is not a response to inflation.

...In 1993 after years of lofty inflation the central bank issued "new" pesos, removing three zeros from each bill, so that the 100,000 peso note of the time was replaced by the 100 peso bill.

-----(from url)----

Curious is not so much the introduction of a larger note, but rather the concurrent withdrawal of the 500s.

As customers and stores shall now find it harder to make and break change for purchases especially in the $44 to $88 range (500p to 1,000p), this may be a deviously subtle ploy to serve to drive a larger number of Mexico's "off-the-books" population to finally seek as necessary the convenience of participation in modern banking through checking accounts and electronic payments, debit/credit cards.

From an official angle, this would be desirable as it would inject massive amounts of currently idle currency into deposits within the banking system, thus making balance sheets more cash-rich to goose the financial sector of the nation's economy.

From the citizen's angle, if they can avoid being fleeced day in and day out by their new exposure to potential banking fees, the added monetary conveniences would be one reward, in addition to possibilities of building a personal line of credit over time. The downside remains the same as in many countries, including this one. If citizens may be drawn into the banking system so completely, that they no longer maintain any assets "off-the-table" and thus safely outside of the system as a form of secure savings. In the event of a banking collapse or currency crisis, they are at greater risk of losing everything.

The key is to strike the right balance. Banking for economic convenience, gold for savings security.

R.

Gold COMEX Contract Dec '04
Open $439.0 HIGH $440.6 low $436.3
SETTLEMENT $437.3
===
The following entries were at one time today, ATOP the HILL
---

$$$$ $440.0 $$$$ shawnis (11/8/04; 20:28:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 126175)

$$$$ $439.8 $$$$ Golden Era (11/10/04; 05:29:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 126239)

$$$$ $439.6 $$$$ Rustee (11/5/04; 09:02:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 126086)

$$$$ $439.4 $$$$ goldquest (11/10/04; 19:38:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 126280)

$$$$ $439.2 $$$$ Goldendome (11/9/04; 21:38:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 126230)

$$$$ $438.9 $$$$ Liberty Head (11/5/04; 21:37:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 126116)
$$$$ $438.8 $$$$ Rocky (11/9/04; 17:52:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 126218)

$$$$ $438.5 $$$$ White Hills (11/10/04; 11:52:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 126260)

$$$$ $438.2 $$$$ glockmaster19 (11/9/04; 16:05:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 126213)

$$$$ $437.7 $$$$ Canuck Gold (11/9/04; 22:40:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 126234)

$$$$ $437.5 $$$$ Felix the Cat (11/9/04; 19:53:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 126222)

$$$$ $437.0 $$$$ innerline (11/10/04; 11:35:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 126259)

$$$$ $436.8 $$$$ goldenpeace (11/10/04; 16:18:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 126270)

$$$$ $436.5 $$$$ pilgrims_gold (11/10/04; 06:12:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 126241)
===================================================

TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

AND, the WINNER of the GOLD Queen Victoria Sovereign is:
(from Downtown HK ---)
Sir Felix the Cat !!!!!

$$$$ $437.5 $$$$ Felix the Cat (11/9/04; 19:53:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 126222)

While the following are WINNERS of the One ounce SILVER Canadian Maple Leaf ---
---
SIR Canuck Gold and Sir Innerline !!!

$$$$ $437.7 $$$$ Canuck Gold (11/9/04; 22:40:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 126234)
and
$$$$ $437.0 $$$$ innerline (11/10/04; 11:35:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 126259)
====
CONGRATULATIONS all you WINNERS !
Please email Lady Marie with your 1) Forum HANDLE; 2) REAL NAME and MAILING ADDRESS so that she can post the prizes.
SHE can be reached at:
marie@usagold.com
<;-)

http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Daily Gold Market Report has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.

Monday excerpts

Gold futures slipped from a 16-year high Monday following a gain of $4 an ounce last week and comments from Treasury Secretary John Snow supporting the U.S. dollar. In a speech in Ireland, Snow said a "strong dollar" is in the U.S. interest.

Snow is traveling in Europe this week to meet with finance ministers before G-20 ministers and central bank chiefs meet Friday.

The comments "basically stopped the free fall in the dollar and therefore led gold traders to take some profits," said Phil Flynn, a senior analyst at Alaron Trading in Chicago.

Against this backdrop, Comex December gold closed at $437.30, down $1. "Buying gold has been a decent hedge against dollar losses.

...However, with the U.S. dollar still widely expected to undergo further weakness over the medium term, a sustained selling spree in gold is deemed unlikely any time soon.

Indeed, with physical offtake in the Indian subcontinent reported sturdy and the holiday season approaching in the U.S. and Europe, any bouts of gold price weakness are expected to be broadly viewed as bargain-hunting opportunities, dealers said.

Some large traders are spreading or hedging their bets against another round of dollar declines and are buying gold," said John Person, president of National Futures Advisory Service.

Peter Grandich, editor of The Grandich Letter, an investment advisory publication, believes that strength in the U.S. stock market has "kept gold's incredible rise off the front pages."

"While the post-election honeymoon bear market rally can last a little while longer, the inevitable resumption of reality after the holidays should only help bolster an already strong case for gold at $500-plus," he said.

Looking ahead, a gold-bullion-backed exchange-traded fund, expected to launch on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol GLD as soon as this week, could mean higher prices for gold.

"The launching of a gold ETF in the U.S. will free millions of investors from the shackles of poor returns from paper assets," said Ned Schmidt, editor of the Value View Gold Report.

"The gold super cycle will now dominate as investors turn their money to gold away from losing money in paper stocks," he said.

-----(see url for access to full news, 24-hr international newswire, gold price charts)----

http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/STATS/table4a3.htmlIs Social Security Broke?

Hardly, over 1.5trillion in assets, as of 2003 running a surplus. Surplus meaning excess of payments over receipts. Its been nearly 25 years since this welfare program ran a deficit, way back in the early 80's. Since 1957, receipts have grown every single year. In 2003 the surplus was 152 billion!

Wall Street wants a piece of the action, and is running a scam game, telling everyone that the fund will run out of money and workers able to pay into the plan to keep it solvent. But, the truth is social security isn't a funded pension plan. Their really isn't any surplus per se. Workers with jobs, pay the benefits to those who are old aged and don't have jobs. It's pay as you go.

IMHO there is plenty of time to make appropriate adjustments to the payments and receipts to continue this welfare program. For example, why are benefits paid to millionares? This is a welfare program meant to support old aged folks who worked hard, but couldn't save due to low income during their lifetimes. Imagine the absurbdity of Wall Street raiding a welfare plan to its own benefit! Outrageous, even insane.

http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmxsf.htmTodays action indicates an increasing groundswell of PoG support in the futures as the downdraft failed to pick up Long stops ... or they were absorbed by "deep pockets".
OI continues to build and the impression one gets is that long-standing alliances are being jeopardized a-la the Bond pits earlier this month ... tread warily Rich!

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/2522If you want a chuckle check out Chris Powell's remarks from the gold conference in New Orleans last week.

snip;
""If Murphy isn't complaining about the gold price, he's complaining
about the failure of the big mining companies to help GATA as
some of the little ones have. Why, why, why won't they do
anything to help us fight the government, he asks?

So I go over it with him again.

The government, I explain, has about 15,000 nuclear weapons, a
large number of infantry and assault divisions and attack aircraft,
special agents who are licensed to kill, the power to print
infinite amounts of legal tender, control of the public lands
on which the mining companies hold leases, and enough
environmental regulations to turn Nevada into a national park.
And here's Murphy shaking his fist at them and screaming, "Come
out, you #@&%+@, and show yourselves!"

That really was my contribution to this organization: Telling
Murphy, "Let's you and them fight." He took me up on it and
the rest is history."

I love it. Mad Dog Murphy teamed with Coach Chris. A great combo fighting the fight for good over evil.

Another brilliant ploy to keep gold OUT of the hands of the hoi polloi, and insert a paper between the Joe Sixpack and gold.

If stocks in gold-mining companies can be shorted and shorted and shorted, so can the paper shares in the ETF.

The ETF picks up where Comex stops. The ETF is a product of the WGC, itself the spawn of Rothschild. Can you expect any good to come of that?

We know the Cabal shorts gold with abandon, reckless about losses. After all, what is at stake is the Great Pseudo-Gold Mine that is the Dollar as the world's money. Losing a few billion on shorting gold is peanuts, compared to the advantages of keeping the Dollar up and running. Problem is, physical gold can be hard to find for the shorts to deliver even small quantities. Where to find it?

Have the public buy the ETF shares high, and then short the dickens out of the shares. Same effect as shorting physical.
Very, very few will want to cash in their shares in the ETF, for physical delivery. Too complicated, too many obstacles. A lot of people will be burnt and will swear off gold.

Well, even the ETF shall pass, in time. The last great struggle of the powers of evil over humanity, is to wean humanity of the desire for gold. When that happens, we are no longer humans, we have become cattle. It shall not be!

If humans have become as cattle, What motive can the rulers have to be benevolent? None. Read: "The Abolition of Man", by C.S. Lewis, for further enlightenment.

The GAB

If so, get ready for a smash on gold of $25 bucks, and get ready to buy CHEAP.

That's what I will do, if it happens.

The GAB

Thanks for setting me straight on the COT report. I checked it yesterday (Sunday) thinking that I would get the latest report since the reports have always (for years!)been posted on Friday night. These Friday night reports include the numbers through Tuesday of the week...three day delay. I didn't notice that what I was viewing was ten days old!! (actually 12).

Anyway, thanks for catching that. I wonder if the delay was just for last week or if the numbers will now only be available after Sunday...five day delay??

But, the numbers your link leds to show that once again the big trend following specs are leading the buying charge, although the numbers indicate that they can buy a lot more before they reverse the (net) shorts initiated during the previous two weeks.

The long term POG/POS outlook will still be determined by the fundamentals which, imho, lead upward until the monetary inflation drops to some sensible degree of economic expansion. With the deficits, overspending consumers, wars, misleading or altered economic indicators, etc., I don't foresee any such sensible level for years to come. Hey, one of these years maybe we'll get there and then the price of metals will still rise due to the old laws of supply and demand.

Then there are always those black swan events...like the Russian bond default (LTCM) or today's move in the price of coffee! I'm not sure yet but have heard rumors of an earthquake in Columbia. One unhedged future's contract of coffee....on the short side...lost over $4,000 today. Can you say margin call? No, I'm long <;) but....such events do happen every now and again. They are totally unpredictable...unknowables. Are Gold and silver due for such an event? Maybe not so unpredictable but whatever triggers the event (whether an important piece of the puzzle or not) MAY be an unpredictable event...butterfly effect...dominos if you prefer? Perhaps just one obscure, nondescript individual, of no consequence to anyone but himself, may refuse, in some dark alley in some far away city, payment for services when offered Yankee dollars. Maybe he'll ask for silver coins instead! Ya, I know, gold coins if it was a big service he rendered, but remember, he is a bear of little consequence...he works for silver, not gold.

Congrats to today's winners..!!!!!!
rich

http://money.iwon.com/jsp/nw/nwdt_rt_top.jsp?cat=TOPBIZ&src=704&feed=dji§ion=news≠ws_id=dji-00054620041115&date=20041115&alias=/alias/money/cm/nwBRUSSELS (Dow Jones)--South African President Thabo Mbeki Monday called for a quick resolution to an attempted takeover of South African gold mining company Gold Fields Ltd. by the smaller gold mining company, Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd., but added he would not intervene.

Gold Fields is resisting a $7 billion all-share takeover by Harmony. The deal has become riddled with litigious rhetoric, which observers say threatens to undermine confidence in the two companies.

...Mbeki was opening a three-day visit to Belgium, France and Holland. Most of his itinerary is political. He is to brief European officials on his recent visit to strife-torn Ivory Coast and on efforts to bring a lasting peace to Congo, Rwanda and Burundi.

But economics is also on the agenda. Mbeki is to go Monday night to Antwerp to address a gala dinner of diamond dealers. The 25-nation European Union is South Africa's largest commercial partner, with total trade reaching $28 billion last year.

...after an afternoon meeting with European Union Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso, Mbeki denied that continued uncertainty over proposals to charge mining companies royalties was undermining the industry or scaring away foreign investors.

South Africa's mining department wants to charge several percent in royalties on the revenues of mining companies. Businesses have balked at this. They say any royalties should be charged on profits, not revenues.

Mbeki said the wrangle has delayed the passing of a bill, as the government consults mining businesses.

----(from article at url)----

A highly tempting target, gold in the ground (as other land-based natural resources) is like a sitting duck for officials hunting for easy pickings to feed social agendas and programs. Highly mobile gold-in-hand, however, is several degrees less prone to this sort of easy confiscatory taxation.

Strike the right balance, and choose your diversification in the right form. Call USAGOLD-Centennial for friendly professional and knowledgeable guidance. They've been helping investors acheive the right balance for over 30 years.

R.

Kings and gold, go together.

It all started back in the Renaissance, with the supposed struggle for Free Enquiry. Mankind was led into an infatuation with Science, with the power of human reason to order things far better than they were up to then ordered, where mankind was supposedly chained down by oudated laws and customs, that prevented Human Reason from improving the lot of mankind.

Out with Kings! Out with Despotism! Free Enquiry, Science and Human Reason enthroned in the will of the "free" people expressing their desires, long kept in subservience were going to liberate mankind and create a better world.

Kings were out! "Democracy" was and is, IN.

The power of the Purse, ever held by Kings, was wrested from them. It began with the foundation of what was to become the first Central Bank, The Bank of England, founded in 1694 to create funds for the war against France, which harbored the deposed King of England, James II.

Then, two hundred years later, the war turned against GOLD, the metal forever associated with Kings.

Both have been demonized.

Today, we labor under an evil tyranny far worse than that ever exercised by the worst of kings.

And the powers of evil continue to attempt rout out gold, the metal of kings.

Are we better off? A rhetorical question. You well know the answer. Will gold follow the fate of kings? God forbid! Your part in this struggle, is to side with gold, and you can do this, by buying it.

The GAB

Thanks to thinking out loud, I can let you know you have no need to wonder any longer. It was a one-off event.

The timing wrinkle was caused by a holiday, Veterans Day being last Thursday.

R.

http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/en/detail/_pages/charts/main.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1&sTimeframe=iD&useSettings=0&showSettings=&sid=&hiddenTimeFrame=&sOrdType=price&sScale=linear&sMarket=GLD.FX1&iType=1&sAv1=na&sAvfree1=&sAv2=200&sAv2free2=&sAv2count=1&iInd0=na&sBench1=na&sBenchcount=1&sBench2=&sBench2count=1&showBenchmarkSearch=&iInd1=2&iInd2=na&iIndcount=1&sSettings=naA $2. leap to start his day !
<;-)

Right now, the Euro is $1.29233, applying my rule, that predicts a gold price of $435.79, which is only 30 cents off.

Forget the price of gold for a few days. Keep your eye on the Euro exchange rate. When gold soars against the dollar and the Euro, you can tell me to take a hike (on the golden path, of course!)

I love XE.com, since it updates the exchange rates so frequently. For some reason they do not list gold as a currency, which I thought it was.

November 15, 2004 8:36 pm et
By Marcy Gordon

WASHINGTON (AP)-Mortgage giant Fannie Mae missed a regulatory deadline Monday for filing its third-quarter financial results after its independant auditor KPMG refused to sign off on the report.

goldquest: I have said in the past that the potential scandals from Fannie and Freddie will make the Enron fiasco look like nothing more than a shoplifting caper!
Fannie, Fannie, Fannie, have ye takin' leave of yer "cents"es, dear lass?

http://www.vheadline.com/readnews.asp?id=23494Makes a couple of good points

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/2525... about the direction of the gold market.


To subscribe to GATA's dispatches, send an e-mail to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

http://www.mlive.com/news/muchronicle/index.ssf?/base/news-5/1099739839249880.xmlSnip: One, a 57-year-old Fruitport Township man, pleaded guilty in federal court Thursday to mail fraud for selling gold coins over an Internet auction site in 1999 as a hedge against Y2K collapse -- then not delivering all the gold after being paid for it�..

In a plea deal, Dennis Michael Siedlecki of 3835 Ellen pleaded guilty in U.S. District Court's Western District of Michigan in Grand Rapids to one count of mail fraud. In exchange for his plea, the U.S. Attorney's office agreed to drop 20 other counts of mail or wire fraud against Siedlecki or his wife, Christine Erma Siedlecki, at the time of Dennis Siedlecki's sentencing�..

Judge Robert Holmes Bell set sentencing for 8:30 a.m. Feb. 4. The maximum possible sentence for mail fraud is five years in federal prison. �.

According to the indictment, the Siedleckis from about May to September 1999 ran an eBay auction business called "Gold for Y2K." The company was created "to sell gold coins to persons who feared economic fluctuations would occur in the year 2000 and thought that gold would be more stable than other investments," the indictment stated. The coins were sold to the highest bidder in a series of eBay auctions.
One buyer from McAllen, Texas, identified in the indictment only as J.S., paid about $40,000 in a series of transactions, but received only about $20,000 worth of one-ounce American Gold Eagle coins, Murray said. After "J.S." complained, he was sent a series of e-mails making various excuses and pledging eventual full repayment, but no refund was ever sent, federal officials said. (end snip)

After five years of investigation and trial finally a guilty plea in exchange for a maximum five-year sentence. The "buyers" are left with little, other than an education. What could be worse than looking for your gold in a courtroom, when it on the moon. Stick with steady accumulation, so there is no need to rush into a buy, and certainly choose a reputable dealer such as CPM.

Hello USAGold members. I am new to posting to USAGold but have been lurking for awhile. Been following the metals markets since 1999. Own many shares and physical.
Just started reading the Gold Trail this weekend - incredibly fascinating commentary. Would love to hear comments / opinions on the Gold Trail from others who have read all of it. Just curious if FOA or Another still post here?

The "Trail" is the most interesting GOLD discussion of this ERA ! Sorry, but BOTH ANOTHER and FOA have not yet returned as they said that they would (when the time is right). HOWEVER, they provided many of us GOLDHEARTS with their view of the future. AND, in my opinion, the discussions of the "Trail" have and are becoming FACT !
Stay and POST at the Forum and you will hear from other wise GOLDHEARTS !
<;-)

I'd like to thank USAGOLD for their contribution to the latest competition and to congratulate Felix the Cat and innerline on their success. I will very gratefully remove another ounce of silver from circulation.

With the December open interests in gold and silver at record levels, we're in for a hairy few days ahead. You just know that certain institutions will be pulling out all the stops to hit gold and silver as hard as they can over the next week or so, so the more of us who hang in there and hold the line, the better. Now if a few brave souls hang tough and stand for delivery, it could get very interesting around here.

CG ;)

As I have said I won't miss the chance to win the Gold. LOL, I now must be drunk again, drank too much at yesterday. @.@!

Sorry for the delay. I agree with everything you said. Social Security does run a surplus (which Congress spends on other stuff EVERY YEAR).

"It is also true that due to demographic changes, at some point in the future there will no longer be an annual surplus but an annual deficit and this deficit will have to be reconciled in some way."

I agree with this also. What I find amusing (and increasingly disgusting) is that I often will hear politicians and the think tank boys speaking as though the "trust fund" represents spendable reserves that can be called upon come the day when the annual surplus turns negative. That was the substance of my dispute with the vice president's comments.

The "trust fund" can not be spent. It has been spent already- this is exactly what you have said yourself. And as long as total deficits exceed this annual surplus it is pointless to speak of "lock boxes." The government would be saving a dollar and owing $1.25 and that is the same as being bankrupt. Nor (given the trade situation) can they buy euros.

In Clink's message of #126338 he paraphrases Cheney as saing "Having said all of that, where we are with respect to Social Security is that the trust fund is in good shape for those that are currently retired, drawing benefits"

Well, this is slightly misleading, isn't it (and in the VP's defense, he isn't the only one saing this) Technically, the fund is broke. However, as it still has positive cash flow in excess of current expenses (the annual surplus you spoke of) the VP is at least correct.

To further quote post #126338: "They're worried that by the time they reach retirement age 30 or 40 years from now, there won't be anything there in the system."

Here is where I get disturbed. Why worry about the future? There's nothing in "there" right now! THAT is what I meant by saing that it is almost impossible to make things worse by "privatization" schemes.

And to really beat a dead horse: "We know when they're going to reach that age. We know how much money is flowing into the system, and there will be a problem 30 or 40 years down the road that we need to address."

Here again is another subtle misunderstanding. Congress does not have 30 or 40 years. It may be as few as 3 to 4 years (heck they're way over-budget now) Invariably, projections of 25 years+ impicitly assume that the "trust fund" can be drawn down before crisis ensues. But as I have already bored you with a fact you already know we will leave it.

The true nature of the "trust fund" (in short: it is a "trust liability") has been and continues to be the single most misleading and befuddling LIE about SSA that is fed to us. Just as Mr Cheney can not bring himself to say that the fund is imaginary, so too Mr Kerry can not say that the REAL reason that privatization is impossible is that congress is already counting on the surplus to backstop their huge "budget" hole.

Why else send you annual statements of what you've paid into the system- except to convince you of the reality of a phantasm? Save to bewitch us with a pleasing lie of a nice future paycheck?

Truly it is one more glaring example of how we live in ignorance of the nature of money and credit. The time is near. Given the realities, there is no easy solution (taxes) as there was 20 years ago. Serious loss of purchasing power is a certainty. As congress can not pay back the fund so too, the ETF's can not cough up the gold. There are many bags to fill with empty zeros. Your annual SSA statement is one bag, the non-returnable "CB gold reserves that are really loans" is another.

To paraphrase an old elvish custom:(which has gotten around to china and lately in these last centuries the city of kings down south)

She is a grand pinata. Surely filled with many good treats- and we all have bags and like greedy orc imps, eagerly waiting for the mad scramble for "loot". However, at the back table, you may instead elect to receive a small bag of "real" candy (set out for those who choose to leave the party early- and for a few of the loosers who might come up empty handed in the mad scramble to come- STRICTLY FIRST COME FIRST SERVED!)

The pinata, a star fallen from heaven, dispensing the wealth of the valar, yet it teaches a hard lesson, which many an elf lad learnt in ages past.

Life is unfair.
The only certain candy is at the back of the room.
Sharing is noble.
The mad scramble is too much like orc mischief.

Now if you will excuse me I have to go count my "early" loot.

regards Sir Camel! Cuio nin mellon.

Thanks for the note regarding the WGC's ETF.

With all the 'to do' about the WGC in the past many years is it not therefore appropriate to be suspicious about this new gold investment vehicle?

I had asked the other day about Chris Thompson's whereabouts. As the anti-hedging king of days gone by, we were anxious to have him lead the Council. Does anyone know how he is doing, or what he is doing? Has he turned over to the dark side?

TIA

Producer Prices: Biggest Gain Since 1990
Tue Nov 16, 2004 09:15 AM ET

Top News

By Tim Ahmann
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. producer prices shot up 1.7 percent last month, the biggest gain in nearly 15 years and well above expectations, as energy costs skyrocketed and food prices surged, a government report showed on Tuesday.

Even outside of food and energy, producer prices climbed a relatively swift 0.3 percent in October, the Labor Department said, well ahead of the 0.1 percent gain Wall Street had expected.

The increase in the overall Producer Price Index, a gauge of prices received by farms, factories and refineries, was the largest since January 1990 and easily outstripped expectations for a 0.5 percent gain.

U.S. bond prices fell and stock futures dipped, pointing to a weak market open, as investors turned nervous on inflation. The dollar was little changed.

http://www.bits.de/public/gast/bell.htmDoes anyone know about the following findings of Prof. Bell?

snip 1:

Lockheed Martin and other federal contractors literally operate under a law unto themselves, known as U.S. Government Cost Accounting Standards.

Lockheed Martin itself described how this law, with its money back guarantee on bad pension fund investments, works. The disclosure is in its December 31, 2002 annual report: "The total funding requirement for our pension plans under U.S. Government Cost Accounting Standards (CAS) in 2002 was $87 million. CAS is a major factor in determining our funding requirements and governs the extent to which our pension costs are allocable to and recoverable under contracts with the U.S. Government. For 2003, we expect our funding requirements under CAS to increase substantially. This amount is recovered over time through the pricing of our products and services on U.S. Government contracts, and therefore is recognized in our net sales."

The last sentence is particularly interesting. It means if Lockheed Martin loses pension fund money on the stock market, the company ultimately increases the size of its revenue by adding the losses onto its prices to the federal government. Impressionable stock buyers could get the idea that the company is doing something right, rather than realizing that the company's pension fund had simply done something very wrong in the stock market.

end snip

snip 2:

On 29 July 2003, Le Monde published an article on foreign ownership of French companies traded on the Paris exchange. This had grown from 10% in 1985 to 43.7% in 2003. But specifically who were the foreign owners? That was generally impossible to determine. The exchange clearing houses such as Euroclear in Paris, which according to the article were the best sources for who owned what, would only give information on the location of the bank in which the title to the stocks was recorded. The head of investor relations at a major European military contractor, EADS, said, "I can't know precisely who are our American stockholders, because many of them have entrusted their stock to European depositary banks."

U.S. government insured investments in foreign stock would help explain why foreign stock markets so often change direction and follow the U.S. markets after the opening of the U.S. markets each day. The same pension funds may be doing the buying at the same time on both sides of the Atlantic.

end snip

This morning the gold market has not been following its inverse relationship with the dollar market, at least on the short time scale. There are stubborn opposing forces at work here.

If one gives way, we may run the buy stops over $440. If the other, we may have the long predicted correction.

A week until December options mature. The big question (with plenty of betting on both sides) is whether this will be an exception to the usual temporary slide back to keep as many calls as possible from maturing in the money.

2023---I also wonder about FOA and ANOTHER.

One of the main reasons that I got into physical gold accumulation was because of the message of these two gentlemen, and the guidance of GOD. I was intrigued by their message, so I researched and dug into what was real and what was not in the land of wealth preservation (I think this was their intent....to get people to investigate and find out for themselves what is really going on, not what the mainstream reporting says is real). Well the more I dug into it, the more I believed what they were saying. So much so that I invested 100% of my wealth into gold (physical). I bought in at an average of $310/oz .... needless to say it was the wisest investment that I've ever made.

I am still very hopefull that Another and his Friend will again come and shead some light on these current events for us, as gold agains hits new highs.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=$GOLD,PETBDANRBO[PA][D][F1!3!!!2!20]⪯f=GThings are now looking GOLDEN !
The Gold P&F Chart from yesterday (see LINK) did give us ANOTHER little Green "X" at the $440. level and confirmed the BREAKOUT !
The Wiz is now recalibrating his Crystal Ball to get the POG projections adjusted. Must have been the changeover from Daylight Savings Time.
<;-)

http://www.crbtrader.com/data/default.asp?page=chart&sym=QCY0Even with the Coffee pullback, Softs are rippin rich! (see link)
The Gold equivalent of Coffee tho mate would find us at Starbucks sipping our Grande Latte's, the cups would of course contain only little bits of paper with "coffee bean" written on them ... but we would be content in the knowledge that "somewhere" in the World "someone" paid 4 bucks for a "real" coffee! Crazy World eh?

Current view of the INO live market chart atop this page:

ReutersCRB . . -1.65

US Dollar . . . . -0.24

Bonds . . . . . . . -3/32

Gold . . . . . . . . +3.4

S&P 500 . . . . -7.58

Nasdaq . . . . -15.21

Gold has so far to run to achieve equilibrium on a physical market basis that it shouldn't be surprising to see many future days in which gold is the only real gainer.

R.

Now I've caught the date disease ... the Softs spike WAS the coffee move yesterday as the CRB Softs Index Chart is for 11/15 NOT today!

http://www.usagold.com/gold-price.htmlDoes anybody see anything here that does not look like the hoof-marks of a rampaging bull and a lifeless bear carcass at January 2001?

Not seeing current charts? Click browser refresh button to reload graphics as necessary, or click and hold mouse key over an outdated chart, and then select the 'reload image' option from the popup menu.

R.

http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html

http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Daily Gold Market Report has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.

Tuesday market excerpts

Comex gold futures secured their highest close in the contract's history Tuesday after continued U.S. dollar weakness and signs of rising U.S. inflation sustained fund interest in bullion.

The most active December contract settled $3.20 higher at $440.50. Spot gold ended the New York session at $440.15 - $1 shy of the fresh 16-year highs scored earlier of $441.15.

U.S. wholesale prices rose at the fastest pace in nearly 15 years in October as prices of energy and food surged. The producer price index for finished goods rose 1.7%, the biggest increase since January 1990, the Labor Department said Tuesday.

The numbers came in above Wall Street expectations and helped heighten gold's allure as an inflation hedge. At the same time, the U.S. dollar remained under pressure relative to the euro and other rivals despite news that foreign inflows of capital into the U.S. remained high in September to cover the trade gap for that month.

The dollar's negative bent despite the capital inflow news sustained the bullish sentiment in dollar alternatives such as gold through the morning. "The dollar seems to be going lower no matter what, and that's obviously helping gold," said a dealer with a large U.S. investment bank.

Gold was already in a bullish mood of late anyway as the market anticipates the potentially imminent launch of two new gold-linked investment vehicles which could unveil new sources of U.S. demand for gold. As a result, once the news emerged that inflation was indeed seeping into the U.S. economy at greater speed than previously acknowledged, gold prices were quick to turn higher.

...A further devaluation of the greenback by 20-30 percent would make bullion more attractive as an alternative store of value and could propel the yellow metal over $600 a troy ounce, said Michael Kosares, founder and president of gold firm USAGOLD-Centennial Precious Metals Inc.

Kosares said crumbling confidence in the U.S. currency due to America's enormous budget and current-account deficits has left investors scampering for safe havens such as gold.

..."There has been increased buying by our regular customers, but also by a lot of first-time investors," said Kosares.

"The euro bottomed against the dollar at 82 cents (October 2000) and has since peaked at around $1.30, an appreciation of 58 percent. In a similar manner, gold has risen 72 percent since its bottom," said Kosares. Gold hit a low of around $255 in April of 2001, but has been trading just under $440 in recent sessions.

The Wall Street Journal and Japan's Nikkei Financial Daily in recent days have both reported what currency traders have long suspected -- that while the administration under President George W. Bush continues to say it favors a "strong dollar," it is happy to let the greenback fall. Barring increased U.S. saving or decreased consumption, a weaker dollar is one of the few remedies for the country's current-account gap.

The Nikkei report, in line with many economists' estimates, concluded the dollar would need to fall by 20-30 percent to halve the ratio of the U.S. current account deficit to the gross domestic product -- now near 6 percent.

This is the same 20-30 percent devaluation Kosares said could kick gold over $600....

----(see url for access to full news, 24-hr international newswire, price charts)---

In reference to my now answered question (126417), thanks !

Congratulations on being deemed knowledgeable enough to be interviewed by the mainstream press! Not that we didn't know, of course. I hope the well earned and well deserved exposure helps your business.

When time allows, could you share some of your current thoughts and especially your current wonderings (questions) about the present state of affairs in the metals' markets?
Thanks
rich

http://www.indianexpress.com/full_story.php?content_id=59018MUMBAI, NOVEMBER 16: Riding on a massive rise in international gold prices, the yellow metal prices rose on Tuesday to breach all previous highs and touched an all-time high of Rs 6,495 per 10 grams [standard gold (99.5 purity)] on the bullion market here on Tuesday. Pure gold was quoted at Rs 6,530.

The previous highest level for standard gold and pure gold were Rs 6,490 and Rs 6,525, respectively.

"Indians continue to buy gold irrespective of the prices," says Mumbai jeweller Bharat Mehta. "The ongoing wedding season and Diwali festival were the two main drivers of gold prices," he added. "We are not expecting any let up in demand."

India is the world's biggest gold consumer with over 800 tonnes of gold sold every year in the country.

-----(from url)----

While prices in India are at all-time highs, here in the U.S. prices still have room to DOUBLE before we get to the old highs in the $800's, a level not seen since 1980. We now have over 20 years of inflation and dollar-creation to catch up with. Unlike the situation with other countries, the dollar's use in international central banking reserves has been a past blessing, but now it becomes a very troubling currency overhang should they ever decide that a portfolio adjustment is warranted by the chronic U.S. budget and trade deficits.

R.

http://www.usagold.com/amk/Kosares-in-News.htmlHEADLINE: U.S. Dollar Crisis Could Catapult Gold Over $600
By Jim Hawe
Dow Jones Newswires Monday, November 15, 2004

(snip)
...So just how much gold should investors be stuffing into their portfolios? Kosares said the commonly cited 5 percent weighting may be too small in light of the current environment and suggests placing 10 percent of one's portfolio in gold.

"Gold isn't so much an investment as it is a type of savings or insurance against currency devaluation," he said. "I think if you look at an investment pyramid you would have savings at the bottom and I think gold should be a part of that savings."

-----(entire article is provide at URL above)----

Nice work, chief.

R.

http://www.wtrg.com/daily/oilandgasspot.htmlIt will be interesting to see if jawboning by Trichet and the European finance ministers is sufficient to scare people away from the Euro (keep them in the US dollar) or whether many US currency holders are going to get off at this stop for better or for worse...

On the oil front, Europe seems to have pursuaded Iran to forgo its uranium enrichment program (a wise decision) and Iran is contentedly setting up contracts all over the world (except with the US). How high does oil have to go in US-dollars before Europe says "enough!", bites the bullet and insists on using Euros for oil purchases? (Now there is a ticklish one...) Oil price in US$ is falling (look at the link). Also look at the trend (with subcycles) and ask yourself whether anyone is going to be buying oil and oil-shares soon.

Meanwhile I notice that when the USBOT dollar index spikes down to near 83.6 there is a rapid upward response...looks like someone somewhere has set their buy-orders at that level and is not shying away, at least in the short term...

Gold is holding up well however...both it and the Ozzie dollar (for example) seem to be taking some of the outflow from the US dollar...probably those who are worried about BOJ intervening and spoiling a Yen play as well as those worried about Trichet doing something more than jawboning and spoiling an Euro play. (This probably explins gold's current strength as well.)

Not all of Europe is hurting...I notice German exports are doing remarkably well in the face of a rising currency. I recall reading somewhere that the Euro represents now about 22% of the worlds currency reserves.

Elsewhere, in China, the leader, Mr Hu, is on a ride around Latin America, building trade relationships there left, right and centre. Mr Hu said: "This will be the century of the Pacific and Latin America." (Funny...now where have I heard something like that before? Mmmm...)

On the home front, here in sleepy old Oz, Mr Ian Macfarlane, the governor of the Australian Reserve Bank, has been getting stuck into the local banks about relaxing their lending standards (all to maintain market share in the face of agressive non-bank lending). The attack is probably unprecedented by a RB governor. Now why would he do that? Well household debt is at record levels here in Oz and the housing sector has been largely responsible ... bubble territory perhaps, but easing. Also our (cyclical, not structural like in the US) current account deficit is running at 6% GDP on a strengthening Ozzie dollar...not good for our exporters. I suspect Mr Macfarlane's attack on the banks is to get them to do their bit so that when the reserve bank has to drop interest rates to weaken the currency (vis-a-vis the US-dollar basket-case) and help exporters, he is not going to have to hose down home-loans as well. No talk of selling Ozzie dollars yet, but it is at about this level earlier this year when the reserve bank started "replishing foreign currency reserves" - euphemism for "printing dollars".

I hear that the governor of the reserve bank of South Africa has said that he is not going to cap the rising SA Rand...yet.

Over in the USA, Mr Powell has called it a day...a remarkable man bows out...I wonder if he is having regrets in not offering himself as a presidential candidate four years ago?

FWIW

;-)

Sundeck

...no, not typos in your book Sir MK, but in my previous message:

"replenishing" in particular...

Thanks for the copy of your book's second edition...a good read...pithy and up-to-date; and not too complex for upsidedown intellects from Oz...definitely a recommended buy (to all those who didn't get a free copy).

Many thanks for the book and especially for the "table round"...

:-)

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/print_story.asp?print=1&guid={6E3031FF-D5F8-42F9-967C-15F403AEAAAD}&siteid=mktwNov. 16, 2004, SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) --

... 1.7 percent climb in the producer price index last month -- the most since January 1990...

"Interest rates are still relatively inexpensive, which makes gold a favorite hedge against a rise in the U.S. dollar," said John Person, president of National Futures Advisory Service.

"The Fed raises rates to combat inflationary pressures, but they risk choking off the economy's growth momentum, so this makes buying gold even that much more attractive as many doubt they will be overly aggressive in their interest rate hiking campaign."

"Earnings last quarter for companies in the S&P 500 Index rose about 17 percent based on the share-weighted average of the 462 companies that released results by Nov. 12" -- that's the smallest increase since the second quarter of 2003, said Person.

"This shows that earnings are decelerating, and that shows the economy is definitely going to be struggling," he said.

Combined with the PPI data, it all "spells trouble ahead for the Fed who must try to balance inflation while not curtailing the economy's growth momentum," said Person.

"If the Fed sees inflation as a threat, they will aggressively raise rates-- that is bad for stocks and bonds, but supportive for gold," he explained. The situation would make gold more attractive "as a hedge against losses in paper assets..."

-----(from url)----

The Fed can't manage its way out of a failing dollar-reserve endgame. The currency will depreciate and interest rates will climb as bond prices slide, just like all the banana republic currencies you've ever read about in the history books and financial pages.

Be proactive. Choose gold.

R.

http://www.usagold.com/amk/Kosares-in-News.html
Kudos and nice to see in print. I fully agree. I saw John Hathaway (Toqueville Fund) with another "Gold Pro" discussing some of the same issues (though the segment meant to focus on the "gold ETF's"). Quite a change from the drivel of the disavowed and forgotten "Andy Smith the Gold Bear" who predicted that gold would fall to $50-$60/ounce as the Techs and Dot.Gones were "the rage". How times have changed.

- Black Blade

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=email_us&refer=columnist_gilbert&sid=aA0a_kNaL70c
Snippet:

Nov. 16 (Bloomberg) -- It's time to dust off a remark John Connally made about the dollar when he was Richard Nixon's U.S. Treasury secretary. ``It's our currency, but it's your problem.''

Three decades later, the problem is back. The dollar's dive against the euro and the yen is turning out to be the defining market move of 2004. After years of ignoring U.S. deficits, the currency market is using the trade and current-account figures as a reason (excuse?) to whack the dollar to a record low against the euro and a seven-month low versus the yen.

The biggest worry for European and Japanese officials isn't just the extent of the dollar's slide. It's the conspiracy theory doing the rounds that says the U.S. would like nothing more than to see a sustained slide in its currency.

Yesterday, Treasury Secretary John Snow trotted out the standard party line that ``a strong dollar is in America's interest.'' Currency traders ignored him --


- Black Blade: As I have said many a time before. The Secretary and the Prez may "talk the talk, but not walk the walk". A weaker US dollar is in the nation's best interest given the severity of the "twin deficits". PM's are looking strong and coiled to spring, and today's inflation data was not encouraging.

http://allafrica.com/stories/200411160467.htmlHEADLINE: Bank Not in Business of Weakening the Exchange Rate, Says Mboweni

Business Day (Johannesburg) November 16, 2004 -- SOUTH AFRICA Reserve Bank governor Tito Mboweni is holding firm to his view that the central bank should not try to weaken the rand this despite the local currency threatening to rally again.

Mboweni told French business executives in Johannesburg yesterday that the Bank was "not in the business of weakening the exchange rate", but that it favoured a "stable and competitive" rand.

The rand was also boosted by a surging gold price, which hit its best level in more than 16 years yesterday, breaking through the key level of $440/oz.

The rand has gained almost 90% against the dollar since hitting an all-time low of R13.85 in 2001.

...the rand's dramatic gains have hurt the export sector...

"With inflation targeting, we shouldn't be seen in any way as targeting any other variable but inflation," he said.

Mboweni said if the Bank tried to weaken the rand it was unclear how far it would drop.

"Then we are back to the complaints of 2001 and the governor being hauled in front of a commission of inquiry to explain the depreciation of the rand. No exporters came to the defence of the governor then," he said.

"In this situation (of low interest rates), people are better advised to liquidate debt, rather than increase expenditure," he said.

He said that with interest rates at historical lows, it made for a "good party out there", but this would have to end at some point.

"As we know, the party has to stop at some point," he said.

-----(see full article at url)----

A home run ball.

I wonder how many of the typically fractious anti-banking crowd find themselves consternated that they can herein relate more fundamentally with a central banker than with the group of politicians that they must ultimately call upon -- if and when -- to do away with these unusually savvy CBers. What then? And to think you thought inflation was bad now... in which case you ain't seen nothin' yet.

R.

I want to thank all of you who went out of your way to say the nice things about the book. It was a labor of love and to see that others gain have gained from it is the greatest reward. As Black Blade suggests for too long what gold is really all about was lost in the rhetoric and the controlled media feed of the opposition. The internet and web sites like this one changed all that. I owe a debt of gratitude to all of you who have posted here over the years, defended and defined the role of gold, and established the solid floor upon which this table round sits. You played a role in establishing the foundation upon which this second edition of the book stands.

As for Barrick, it is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma. If you don't believe it, go to their web site and read its explanations of its hedge book. For me, the $1 billion bond offer is the direct refutation of the forward sales/carry trades that comprised its mode of operation in a previous life. That cannot be viewed as anything but bullish for the gold price in general, and, I believe, the cornerstone by what it signifies, for what Richard Russell recently annointed the second leg in the bull market on gold.

All the best. . . .

http://www.futuresource.com/news/story.jsp?i=i4511074418816909376Ask yourself why.

Because there's not enough metal for everyone, and they would rather keep the situation in check by distracting you with certificates of one sort or another while they keep the security of gold metal for themselves and the preeminent entities who will neither be fooled or stand for less.

See excerpt from article below...

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--The Securities and Exchange Commission is believed to
be close to agreeing to the launch of two gold-backed exchange-traded funds
in the U.S...

The World Gold Council's 'streetTRACKS' Gold Trust is expected to be
launched on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol "GLD" within a
matter of days.

The fund is structured into "baskets" of 100,000 New York Stock Exchange-
listed shares backed by 10,000 ounces of gold - pricing each share at 1/10 of
an ounce of gold. The Net Asset Value of the trust's gold holdings will be
derived daily from the price of an ounce of gold as fixed by the members of
the London Bullion Market Association at 3:00 PM London time.

HSBC Bank USA N.A. will act as the custodian of the trust...

While the fund itself will only sell to qualified buyers who must buy in
10,000-ounce baskets worth around $4.35 million at current prices, individual
investors will be able to buy small lots from the 'basket' holders.

Barclays Global Investors, meanwhile, are seen soon launching another gold-
backed ETF called the iShares Comex Gold Trust on the American Stock Exchange
under the symbol "IAU". The Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS) is named as the
custodian of the trust, while Bank of New York Co. is named as the Trustee.

iShares will also be backed by one-tenth of an ounce of gold and are
designed to mimic the price of gold futures traded on Comex.

Both funds are designed to allow U.S. investors the opportunity to invest
in gold-backed shares that entitle holders to exposure to the gold price
without requiring actual custody of the metal...

...the timing of the launches couldn't be
better.

"With prices at 16-year highs gold is on more radar screens than for a
while, so it's a good time to be coming out with new instruments with which
to invest in [Randy says, w/r/t metal, DISTRACT from] gold," argued Paul McLeod, vice president of precious metals
trading at Commerzbank in New York.

McLeod stressed that the ETFs would be unlikely to generate a
surge in demand that would send prices sharply higher.

"I think there is demand out there for these products, and they'll
certainly be supportive for the market, but I can't see any fireworks once
they're launched," he argued.

....While the market is generally friendly to the new vehicles, some followers
have raised concern that they might cannibalize demand for gold mining
equities.

"It will be interesting to see if people who are currently invested in gold
mining companies get out of equities and into these shares because of the
purer exposure to the gold price," argued a precious metals dealer with New
York-based European investment bank.

"It could be that owning mine shares has its company-specific drawbacks,
while with gold-backed shares you have less to be concerned with," he said.

-----(from article at url)---

Notice how none of the mainstream press will touch the idea of direct metal ownership. The closest they come to dealing with the diversion element is with respect to gold mining stocks, and even have the gall to say "owning mine shares has its company-specific drawbacks, while with gold-backed shares you have less to be concerned with". That is very nearly a case of the pot calling the kettle black. If they truly wanted to impress upon their readers the meaning of security from risk of bankruptcy, default, or management scandal, then why don't they come right out and point them directly to physical gold ownership as the king of that domain? To answer that, I refer you again to my words in the opening paragraph of this post.

Stick with USAGOLD and, with the savage winds of the markets swirling around you, you will yet be standing tall with the preeminent entities who would neither be fooled nor stand for less.

Think of it as your personal reward for building up your base of knowledge and understanding.

R.

BB Msg#126448 and others,

I suppose there was a fair proportion of the financial (and non-financial) world who really believed gold was dead in the long gold bear market from 1980 to 2001. There ae many who still persist...which is a good sign, because it may indicate that this golden bull has a bit of charge left in him yet...

A few years ago I remarked to an old friend (a partner in a major accounting firm) that gold was going to rise greatly in (US-dollar) price...it was probably around US$300 then. "Oh no. Gold has lost its monetary role." and all that. Every time I have seen him since, he comments on how the price of gold has risen "just as you said it would". He still seems a little incredulous when I tell him it probaby has a lot further to go.

Now here is a guy, competent in his field in a major accounting firm who is unable to see (or unwilling to believe) the problem facing the world's financial system. I suspect many of these guys are just too submerged in the system to have an overall perspective...can't see the forest for the trees, as it were. What hope the daily touts on all the financial shows who have to appear to say something intelligent each day and every day with an enthusiastic voice and confident body-language?

;-)