USAGOLD Discussion - November 2004

All times are U.S. Mountain Time

Aristotle
(11/01/2004; 05:09:14 MDT - Msg ID: 125982)
Rich has been the perfect shill for bullion banks
In one quick breath he says he doesn't recommend the futures game, but why does he continue to put forth the great effort to selectively cheerlead for paperGold and nullify the fundamental physicalGold discussions put forth by the more fully informed Gold advocates among us?

Does Rich rub his hands together with glee when he sees posters like da2g begin to toy with his siren song and join in the melody? "Had my investment approach been more heavily weighted to paper over these past 5 years or so, and the resulting dollar profits converted to physical, I would now, without question, be holding far more physical." -- (msg#: 125978)

Complete nonsense. Not a chance. Guys that are capable of that are 3 in a billion, and they certainly wouldn't suggest that anyone else could be capable of it. Don'tcha see? The greed/addict mentality that believes more gains can be had in paper games is the same mentality that determines how any resulting profits are invested. And assuming there were indeed profits, the prevailing mentality says to put the profits right back into the same "tried-and-true" sort of ventures in furtherance of their hopeful addiction to maximizing papery gains. Sure, they think one day they'll take chips off the table, but not just yet. Not until their next big score. And if/when that score comes, it reinforces their idea that paper is a game that's a good place to STAY.

So unless da2g is one of those rarest 3-in-a-billion guys who do successfully use paper as their source of income with the discipline for a vital establishment and growth of savings in solid Gold, I'd reject his current Rich-esque hypothesis and say that da2g is now, without question, holding more Physical exactly because of rather than in spite of his past course of wisdom, determination and objective action than would have been the case if he'd try to play paper into a bigger hand. Ask any addict -- if they had a similar hypothetical benefit of all-knowing foresight, they'd enjoy their addiction right up until just prior to last fateful hit that cost them everything and left them ruined. Unfortunately, when you play the paper game there's no knowing when that fateful moment will arrive that leaves you holding an empty bag. That's why a man of greater wisdom and less ego/pride than Rich will not lift a single finger to foist the theoretical merits of paperGold onto anyone's radar, but will quietly as my friend (or loudly as me) set a good example by regularly taking his income from whatever sources and consolidating the wealth tangibly, especially as Gold savings.

But let's get right down to it. Rich has become so good at ignoring our primary points, fabricating straw men and making long diversionary oratories on the undisputed "freeness" and workings of the futures market, there's no getting through to him how the free liberalities of the derivative markets has resulted in the unfree smothering of Goldmetal.

Let's say for argument sake that he makes the bullion banker's case so well I'm finally sold -- he's won me over and shown me the pedestrian error of my ways.

So now what am I going to do as a course correction? Let's imagine some nice round numbers to keep this exciting and make the math easier to follow. I'm going to take my 10,000 Physical ounces and sell them at the current spot price for a cash in hand payment of $4,250,000.

According to Rich, the risk of counterparty default or COMEX rule change are at once negligible. His concession to the possibility of error on that score is countered only by painting scenes of a complete armageddon which would his miscalculation as something of minor comparative importance.

OK, so Rich has worked hard to convince us of the infallibility of the counterparty-based derivative markets, so that even someone as stupid as I am can see that at 100 ounces being represented by each contract I only need 100 of these "good-as-Gold" COMEX contracts to maintain the essence of my old-fashioned 10,000 ounces. And with the low low $2,025 margin cost per contract, out of the $4.25 million in cash I got for my Gold sale it'll only cost me $202,500 to reestablish a "good-as-Gold" weightless account as the modern equivalent to the stodgy old 10,000 oz I'd been holding like an dimwitted caveman.

Now here's where I need help. What am I supposed to do next -- wring my hands together with a greedy look in my eye, along with every other smart Rich-wannabe who, like me sold all their Goldmetal and replaced it cheaply with infallible contracts??? What's the next leg? If we wait long enough the jewelry people will eventually buy up all of our dishoarded Goldmetal on the spot physical market, and when it runs out they will then start buying our COMEX contracts (driving up the price and filling our pockets with paper) so that the jewelers can get delivery from the only remaining game (weightless as it is) in town???? And I do say *jewelers* only, because by then all of the smart *investors* will have already long gotten 100% into these conveniently weightless COMEX accounts, ultimately counting on selling their weightless long positions in turn to the jeweler-boys at such time as the investor-boys might separately want/need to cash out.

Tell me, again, if the Physical market gets tight/dry, why would the jeweler-boys pay us weightless investors top dollar to have our long contracts?

Sheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeesh.

And I've said this before, but Rich can't get a clue so I'll say it again. Consider the mechanics of my tale as presented. If I'm willing to walk around in Rich's shoes under the impression that the COMEX contracts are infallible cheap alternatives to Gold, look again at what it was that I did. As a buyer (long) of the paperGold, I was at the same time a natural liquidator/seller of my Physical metal -- in Rich's special world nobody needs both, right?

Now understand this -- the other side of the equation. Think hard. Those "crazy cabal(???) bastards" who are the notorious sellers (short) of the paperGold, they are at the same time naturally buyers of the Physical metal that comes forth as Rich recruits more patsies to buy into his infallible paper scheme.

Just say no to pushers. And while you're at it, tell Rich to cancel your order -- you won't be needing a concrete driveway because someone else more clever than he is already sold you a paper one on margin so that you might milk it as a profit center.

I predict he still won't get it.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle
Joanne
(11/01/2004; 08:35:13 MDT - Msg ID: 125983)
In defence of greed
If Rich has his physical "hoard" in place, what's the big deal with "gambling" his extra spending money?

Oh, he's contributing to our little problem, you say. Well, I guess that's our little problem. It certainly isn't his, if he's making money.

It'll take a much bigger fish than Rich to bring this baby down.

I stayed in the gold and silver stocks until last year and did quite well (for me) and I definitely wouldn't call it an addiction because I was scared ##%$less the whole time. Because I believe in you guys. I believe it will come to a crashing end. But criticizing people who are actually making money legally in these stark times is starting to annoy me.

Sorry for ranting.
I'll take the flames now.
The CoinGuy
(11/01/2004; 08:52:41 MDT - Msg ID: 125984)
Paper vs. Physical vs. The U.S. Dollar
Perhaps I've been wrong all of these years. I've been under the solid impression physical vs. paper wasn't the premise for debate on this site, but a side argument, perhaps worthy of discussion now and again, but to offer this up as the avenue to riches, I'll put my nod in, "foolhardy at best".

As a professional trader, I derive all of my income from the markets, and I'll firmly say I've always believed the argument for physical gold as a holding was a hedge against dollar devaluation. So, in this instance where the discussion centers around "should I trade the contracts", or "hold tightly onto my physical metal". From my standpoint, there isn't any point I find worthy of much discussion, other than to recommend purchasing a dozen wheelbarrows now why you can still afford them. This is of course, if you're successful. Most are not, and yes men do go broke in a Bull Market.

A trader who, perhaps is successful(best case scenario), will be cashing out one paper contract for another, where he'll find relentless dilution has taken hold not allowing him to purchase the tangibles, "He thought it would", when he started the endeavor. The problem for the successful trader isn't the standard default of the contract, the problem is the devaluation of the currency he's trading in. What will those paper digits purchase today, compared with yesteryear? This is why FOA mentioned, the leverage will be in the physical metal. Which I found to be solid advice.

You've been lucky to this point the gold contract is primarily trading against the dollar in a hedge function. Perhaps, soon it will trade in a leveraged fashion against the decline in a currency which is losing its reserve status? A marking to market of all those past promises to pay. Standing there with fists clenched around contracts filled with promise, but paying only in another promise. A fulfillment of the contract in due course, but what will it purchase...like I said, "wheelbarrows".

For those not so bold:

Gold, get you some, why you can still afford it...

The (Physical) CoinGuy
MK
(11/01/2004; 09:44:23 MDT - Msg ID: 125985)
More on the consequences of a 'hung-jury' election
The Financial Times ran a front page story about the high volatility in investment markets based upon the election turning into legal battleground for determined lawyers on both sides of the political fence out ostensibly to "insure a fair election." Expect turbulent markets, they say, and a falling dollar if the election fails to produce a "clear result." That volatility seems to have calmed somewhat in today's trading though the day is young, and the profit-taking in the gold and dollar market might well be premature. (We'll find out tomorrow.) Short positions against the dollar, FT reports, are up 50% in recent days -- reaching a record in euro trade. Bond market investors are readying themselves for "strong moves." The most far-reaching conclusions came from Tobias Levkovich, chief U.S. equities strategist at Smith Barney. A 'hung-jury', he said, could lead to lawsuits and challenges that could undermine confidence in American democracy and cause investors to flee US markets." There were several references to the 2000 election and how the situation then compares to the present.

As I pointed out last week, there is one major component present now that was missing then. When Congress adjourned for the election, it failed to pass a resolution to raise the debt ceiling above the $7.4 trillion level. The government is now for all intents and purposes operating out of an over-drawn checking account. One wonders if one political party or both have it in mind to hold the budget hostage over a 'hung-jury' election. Under normal circumstances I would conclude that though these political parties hate each other and we are a nation deeply at odds with itself, they would certainly come together when their mutual best interests were at stake as they are in keeping the government in operation. At the same time, we do not know how far the politicians are willing to go if they believe they've been cheated by the other side in this bitterly contested election. Anyone who's followed this election will attest to the fact that the mind-set in both parties is such that anything is possible.

So it gets down to this: What are the chances that this election will be contested, dragged on, and once again sent on to the Supreme Court? Further on in the Financial Times, Patti Waldmeir who writes the legal column for that newspaper provides the hint of an answer:

"I find it hard to believe that at the end of the end of the day, these people [the lawyers] are going to say 'No, we didn't see anything." Doug Chapin, Director, electionline.com (non-partisan)

And then she quotes former U.S. Solicitor General, Theodore Olsen:

"Anyone who thinks that these litigation-hungry warriors will not do what they have been born, bred, paid and inspired to do if the election is close does not understand the species."

Ultimately, we can hope for a clear victor, but the polls are telling us that several states are hotly contested. The lawyers will be out in force - battallions of them we are told. By sheer numbers, this in itself ups the argument for a 'hung-jury."

Those of you who can't wait for this election to be over may awaken Wednesday morning to discover that it's going to be with us for some time to come. If you think its been tedious thus far, wait until you have thousands of lawyers at each others' throats over the outcome.

All I can say is let's hope we get through it in one piece. At the same time, it is in your best interest to be aware that there might be even more dire consequences should a candidate not be chosen than if we have a clear victor - no matter your political persuasion.
Moegold
(11/01/2004; 10:23:08 MDT - Msg ID: 125986)
More election uncertainty/interferrence
http://www.nypost.com/news/nationalnews/33124.htmAs reported in the NY Post:

November 1, 2004 -- WASHINGTON - Osama bin Laden warned in his October Surprise video that he will be closely monitoring the state-by-state election returns in tomorrow's presidential race � and will spare any state that votes against President Bush from being attacked, according to a new analysis of his statement.


In tomes of uncertainty, buy gold.
CoBra(too)
(11/01/2004; 10:25:28 MDT - Msg ID: 125987)
Fallacy - Or Quid for Pro?
Lots of solid arguments. Still it's a question of perspective. Physical Gold (and Silver) vis a vis the US paper confetti has brought solid gains - at least in relative value this past few years. It has therefor fulfilled its promise of insurance vs paper values and in particular vs the US reserve hegeminial fiat Dollar.

In a broader sense and in the spectrum of currencies, as included in the DXO it hasn't done scratch. Having been around the markets an in particular the gold market for most of my professional as well as private life, I admit being too early involved again - that is from 1993 - when I thougt we may be at the start of another secular bull market in PM's. I've been completely wrong, even if I could've made a real fortune at that time with some of my miners. With hindsight, I appreciate that the PPT has really started to get serious about their game. And they did.

In the aftermath of the Oct. 1987 crash the flood gates of monetary intervention, managed markets and hedonic accounting, reporting and worse started to take off in all its ghastly (un-)reality. Even A.G. got scared of the witchcraft he'd released, and found exhuberance in financial markets - which doubled exhuberantly only a few
short years later.

From here on it was not only A.G. and the FED becoming slaves to their own Keynesian addictive medicine. It was the whole globe and the "propaganda" surrounding globalization. A globalization gone awry and backfiring on the instigators. Outsourcing everthing including their own econmic future ... whatfor? Oh, to win another day or two ...

Now we have the consumer as a last resort of economic growth. GDP growth (in particular in the US) is tied to the willingness of consumers to go even more into debt - oh, this is called credit in Alice's Wonderland.

Looks like we're eating the seed corn! And I guess what that means we all know.

Now, Gold has to establish a clear upward trend vs all other (strong) currencies before I would give up my stance towards some paper trades. I would suggest to really re-read MK's ABC of Gold Investing and his intention to really
educate some people towards the rewards of real physical.

Personally, I have learned to be more humble in my investment strategies than ever before. I've also learned not to trust the bigotry of one only strategy, however scalding their message ... Thank you for bearing with me -

cb2




The CoinGuy
(11/01/2004; 11:22:41 MDT - Msg ID: 125988)
Cobra II
"it hasn't done scratch". Except return twice what the dollar has lost. Now I understand this isn't enough for some individuals who need the leverage fix. I myself am a major shareholder in more than a dozen companies. I do trade the contract in all materials, but a strategy built on this basis, I believe will leave you wanton as we go forward. There can be one extreme, exchanged for another, perhaps the middle ground is best in all cases, but this argument leaves a bitter taste in my mouth? It is in this instance, where we find ourselves on the end of a Reserve when extra measures need to be brought into the conversation. Especially, when it concerns the medium in which you save all of your hard earned gains(seedcorn).

I will add, taking the paper approach is not a "thinking outside the box" approach, but taking the past roads that are well traveled. Perhaps a different approach might be needed in the circumstances we find ourselves?

The circumstances, and you allude to several in your post are this. Our seedcorn is no longer being consumed, it has been consumed, and for some decades now. Again, all the digits lying in mattresses/accounts/central banks around the world will be looking for a rendered payment sometime in the future. This is certain. If you're relying on these digits for future value. I don't think you'll be pleased with the outcome. What percentage you hold is your business, but to compare the physical metal with trading paper. I believe there is no comparison for long-term value.

A one strategy approach would seem rather naieve. Even to state so, I find suspicious, but a core built from the strategy thoughtfully outlined on these pages since the beginning will benefit the holder well. What you do with the rest, and this I think most all agree with, "is your business", but I would be rather cautious in exactly allocations you are considering. Again, as you have outlined in your post. These are dangerous times, and prudence with your investment capital should be considered thoughtfully.



Best,

The CoinGuy
The CoinGuy
(11/01/2004; 11:26:57 MDT - Msg ID: 125989)
Do Apologize...
For typos, it seems as though you can read these posts over a half dozen times, but without a secretary at hand. A few still escape.

Smile,

TCG
ge
(11/01/2004; 11:40:58 MDT - Msg ID: 125990)
Highly valued wooden sticks in England - 1670 AD
http://www.galmarley.com/framesets/fs_monetary_history_faqs.htm....
"By 1671 the system was hardly benefiting the king at all because redemptions were consuming all the cash subsequent issues could raise. He had sucked in all the private money he was going to get, so when at the year's end he demanded still more vital cash for his navy the bankers couldn't get it - at any price.

"Annoyed, Charles conveniently remembered that the bulk of the loans which he had recently taken out had been at rates above the 6% limit permitted by his own usury laws. He declared the debts illegal and his own exchequer's payments stopped. This temporary action was enacted on 2nd January 1672, was extended after one year for another two, and after those two (subject to a few carefully chosen exceptions) it became indefinite.

"The effect - often repeated since - was that those who lent to the state turned out to have accidentally provided all their carefully accumulated personal wealth as voluntary taxes. The goldsmiths were blamed. They were caricatured as greedy opportunists and damned by their once enthusiastic depositors. Eleven of the biggest 14 failed, leaving their chiefs variously (i) ruined, (ii) bankrupted (iii) on the run (iv) jailed or (v) dead.

"The humble wooden stick never regained any credibility. It was doomed to lose out to its close cousin - paper.
Cometose
(11/01/2004; 13:37:26 MDT - Msg ID: 125991)
Oil Spill
I notice that we are having another silly oil spill today ......and
that Gold doesnt' seem to be paying much heed to it ....

and the Canadian Loonie doesn't seem to be paying much heed to it ...

and the Euro doesn't seem to be paying much heed to it .....

and by the state of it's recovering ......Oil itself isn't paying much attention to it .............


Oil has already discounted this and several other spills and seems be moving higher.

Heard an interesting statistic over the weekend.......

that has no exceptions......

THE INCUMBent President has never survived an election preceeded by an October in which the Market INdexes fell .5 Percent or more................

I would like to bet on that statistic but have no local venue to do it in ......

Martin Wiess believes because of his study / research (in several states of preelection shenanigans and the failure of our officials to fix the Voting problems of 2000, that we may be in for several weeks of uncertainty/ not knowing who won the election ........

If this becomes the case.. after 2-3 days after Nov 2, he says that the uncertainty caused in many of the markets discussed here will become subject to fireworks becoming A JULY 4th CELEBRATION...............I CONCUR

THE REASON THIS IS HAPPENING is that the idea of GOV'T that is "OF THE PEOPLE , BY THE PEOPLE , and FOR THE PEOPLE" ( THIS IS A TERM THAT I PASSIONATELY REFER TO AS CONSTITUTIONAL FREEDOM ....FREEDOM'S DREAM PAID FOR BY THE BLOOD OF TRUE PATRIOTS: PATRIOT CONSTITUTIONAL FREEDOM'S DREAM ) is a "BIG JOKE " in the minds and hearts of the people that are our elected representatives in WASHINGTON........THE NEW ARISTOCRACY.............who will bend over at the whiff of or on the turn of a dime......

I HAVE AN ANSWER FOR ALL OF THEM , EVERY LAST ONE...........

IT IS A SIMPLE FOUR LETTER WORD NEXT!!!!!!!!!!
and the qualifier "YOU ARE FIRED"....

THE CONSTITUTION is not for sale

not to corporate vested interests,
not to the military industrial complex..
not to International Business Hijackers...
not to LOBBYISTS.......(that's the politically correct term for the EVIL OF BRIBERY)
NOT to SOCIAL /BANKING ENGINEERING THINK TANK ELITIST
GROUPS...........
NOT TO SLICK TALKING CON MEN HUCKSTERS

NOT AT ANY PRICE ..............
NOT NOW ,,,,,,,,,,,,
NOT EVER..............

I say let freedom RING!!!!!!
and keep ringing ..........!!!!!!!
and LET US NEVER USE THE PRINCIPLE OF FREEDOM
to PROMOTE a RUSE ..........or RUN A SCAM on the
AMERICAN PEOPLE OR the GLOBAL COMMUNITY ........

to preserve the status quo when relying on a 200 year legacy of innovation will serve us just as well to move us out onto the ever broadening new FRONTIER........
THERE ARE PLENTY OF FRONTIERSMEN STILL IN AMERICA....
GIVE THEM THE FUEL AND WATCH THEM BURN A PATH INTO THE FUTURE UNPARALLELED by prior American GENERATIONS'INNOVATION AND INGENUITY.

I LOVE THIS COUNTRY ...........
WE shouldn't allow parasites to try to BOARD HER....\
It's time for America to recieve a STRONG DOSE OF ANTI PARASITE MEDICINE..............
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(11/01/2004; 14:27:21 MDT - Msg ID: 125992)
SECOND EDITION: Newly Updated -- Written for Today's Market!
http://www.abcs-of-gold-investing.com/

Gold Investing - Second Edition
TownCrier
(11/01/2004; 14:59:58 MDT - Msg ID: 125993)
Fed adds $10.5 billion via overnite RPs at 1.84 percent
Next scheduled meeting of the policy-setting FOMC is November 10th to determine the official rate of ease for new money creation.

In an important contrast, a spokesman for Mother Nature said no meeting would be held to review new prospects for gold policy as it has already been set in stone. Literally.

When it's the future value of your savings that's at stake, choose gold.

R.
R Powell
(11/01/2004; 15:59:59 MDT - Msg ID: 125994)
Aristotle
Your words here from post 125982...

"In one quick breath he says he doesn't recommend the futures game, but why does he continue to put forth the great effort to selectively cheerlead for paperGold and nullify the fundamental physicalGold discussions put forth by the more fully informed Gold advocates among us?"

I can fully understand your confusion. I don't recommend futures trading as it is a highly leveraged form of investing, very risky, and not easily understood by many, as your comments always remind me. I often have to explain the most basic (enomics 101) operations (reality, whether you approve or not) of futures and options to counter or point out the market functioning falsehoods that the "buy physical only" group often use to support the buy physical only dogma. I have nothing against physical accumulation and have said so repeatedly. I think it is an excellent idea, especially silver. I own a nice little stash of the metal of the moon. Sorry, I know it's only gold that you worship. Are you now confused again? I believe one can hold physical metal for all the good reasons so often cited here AND also invest in paper markets!

However, what I had to say about paper investing refered to the discussion of "freegold" and whether or not any side bets (derivatives) have anything to do or not with this concept. As usual, you have taken out only bits and pieces of what I said and twisted them to suit your ongoing "physical only" agenda. How so? Read your words above once more. I have never advocated paper trading of any kind as a substitute for physical ownership..NEVER... yet you keep accusing me just that...trying to, as you said, "nullify the fundamental physicalGold discussions". As Reagan used to say while shaking his head..."There you go again"...condemning any opinion that does not coincide with your EITHER/OR approach to the gold market. You seem to think in simplistic terms that a person either buys physical ONLY (good goldbug) and is on your side OR buys paper ONLY (evil cabal) and is the enemy. I can only equate this to blind dogma...fanatisicm...Do you see everything in either black OR white, good OR evil? As to your theory that the paper market has for years overwhelmed the most dominent, fundamental price determinent of supply and demand..believe what you want...I consider that total lunacy. Basically, if/when enough demand arises for physical gold, the price will rise regardless of the cash initiated and cash settled side bets on that number. Did those evil soybean shorts stop (with paper derivatives) the price from more than doubling, very quickly, when last year's harvest fell short of demand?

As for anyone making a profit from paper investments, your comments of this happening were..your words..."Complete nonsense."
Really now? Nobody makes any profits? Oh, I see where you clarified that to "Guys that are capable of that are "3 in a billion". Pray tell, which three..Soros, Buffett and Gross perhaps?

Your obvious view that all paper investors are doomed addicts is quite extreme. You seem totally convinced that all of them (or 999,999,997 out of 1,000,000,000) will end up bankrupt. I'm amazed that there is anyone at all left who invests? Do you uphold the beief that all markets and all investor are evil and those who invest are likewise contaminated? What level in Dante's he## is reserved for these sinners?


Further along I came to....your words..."That's why a man of greater wisdom and less ego/pride than Rich will not lift a single finger to foist the theoretical merits of paperGold onto anyone's radar...."

Wow...See no evil, speak no evil..
Perhaps total ignorance of even the existence of the paper markets would be better for your flock. You certainly don't want them to understand how they really work, they might then question your dogma that PAPER IS EVIL. Your views remind me of religious fanaticism...blind faith...Physical only right or wrong...to the death!! Are you crossing yourself as you read these words?

Further along...your words.."Tell me, again, if the Physical market gets tight/dry, why would the jeweler-boys pay us weightless investors top dollar to have our long contracts?"

How can I simplify what I've already said so many times....Paper gets settled in cash. Initiated in cash and settled in cash. Can you not even think without thinking ONLY in terms of PHYSICAL??

And, with cash settlements Rich NEVER said that "COMEX contracts are infallible cheap alternatives to Gold" (by which I know you were refering to PHYSICAL gold). Stop making up lies!! I never said that. In fact the basis of my agrument about "freegold" IS that paper investments and physical ownership are NOT the same. One does NOT substitute for the other! Without being able to understand that EVIL paper market, I don't expect you will ever understand this concept.

And finally, I leave it up to others to decide if I'm trying to "recruit more patsies to buy into his infallible paper scheme". And then you end by calling me a "pusher" Thanks Ari...back at you Sir, in spades! I guess you really must think of me as the devil...what were your words to describe me from last year...the DARK ONE or was it the EVIL ONE or ONE FROM THE DARK SIDE?
Pray for me Aristotle, because I hope I never become as narrow minded and fanatical as you are.
Regards
Rich





USAGOLD Daily Market Report
(11/01/2004; 16:34:06 MDT - Msg ID: 125995)
Page Update!
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Daily Gold Market Report has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.

---closing market excerpts----

Comex gold futures slipped slightly Monday in quiet trade, as a penchant for lingering on the sidelines ahead of Tuesday's U.S. presidential elections and softer oil prices kept bullion buyers scarce.

The most-active December contract settled $1.20 lower at $428.20 per ounce.

Dealers noted an early burst of speculative buying Monday that drove December prices to a five-day high of $431.50. However, that buying was countered by steady trade selling into the strength, which trimmed early gains....

"We had fairly light trade all day today. People have gotten themselves where they want to be in front of the election and are now going to just wait it out. I expect an even quieter day tomorrow," said Paul McLeod, a precious metals vice president at Commerzbank Securities.

A Reuters poll on Sunday showed President George W. Bush and his Democrat rival Senator John Kerry tied with 48 percent of the vote.

...with protracted legal disputes widely expected over the results of the closely fought election, few holders of gold appear set to offload the metal with any great vigor over the near term. "It seems anything is expected in this election as we're already seeing armies of lawyers ready to fight results before voting has even started." said an analyst and dealer with a U.S. investment bank.

The possibility of an oil workers' strike in Nigeria and uncertainty ahead of Tuesday's U.S. presidential election weighed on the crude market. "That's what's pulled gold back," said Charlie Nedoss, an analyst at Peak Trading Group, but gold posted a "good week last week" -- up 0.9 percent for the week and up more than 2 percent for October.

"Weakness like this is a 'buy,'" Nedoss said.

U.S. personal income and spending numbers for September, reported earlier Monday, show "once again how Americans continue to rob Peter to pay Paul by spending more than they earn," said Peter Grandich, editor of The Grandich Letter.

Meanwhile, Grandich said, "real disposal income was unchanged, suggesting that growth in the fourth quarter could be weaker than forecast."

-----(see url for access to full news, 24-hr international newswire)----

HEADLINES

Japanese banks begin distributing new yen notes -- The Peninsula - Business News

NYMEX launches Brent oil open outcry in Dublin -- Reuters.co.uk - Breaking News

New product allows South Africans to invest in bullion -- Engineering News Online - Breaking News

JP Morgan will still advise Gold Fields despite Harmony pressure -- Business Report - Company News

U.S. Consumer Spending Soars by 0.6 Percent In September -- WHDH-TV - Business
TownCrier
(11/01/2004; 16:39:54 MDT - Msg ID: 125996)
Japanese banks begin distributing new yen notes
http://www.thepeninsulaqatar.com/Display_news.asp?section=Business_News⊂section=market+news&month=November2004&file=Business_News200411021489.xmlAFP TOKYO: -- Major banks said the new bills of 1,000 yen, which is worth about nine dollars, and of 5,000 yen and 10,000 yen were available yesterday at branches across Japan.

The bills, updated for the first time in roughly two decades, are more difficult to forge due to advanced features including a hologram. It is expected to take two years for the new notes to replace the old ones.

"I have heard many counterfeit bills are around. I think (the new ones) are pretty hard to copy," Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi said after visiting the central bank. "Although the economic effects (of the introduction of new bills) are uncertain, I hope this helps keep the economic recovery on track," Koizumi said.

Bank of Japan Governor Toshihiko Fukui agreed, saying he hoped the new bills "would stimulate people's minds and help build a dynamic economy".

------(from url)------

Try this for a change. Stimulate your mind with exposure to true wealth. Choose gold.

R.
melda laure
(11/01/2004; 16:46:07 MDT - Msg ID: 125997)
(No Subject)
Cometose.

I agree. I find it amusing that two parties that the majority of your citizens were ready to dismiss as clueless and irrelevant a mere four years ago, are suddenly "important" again - so much so that it seems everybody has strong opinions on one side or the other. Was there some news that I missed? Some new moral development?

"None save that the world's grown honest."

Yes the fate of the nation is at stake- just not in the manner portrayed by the candidates. Yes the future of the world economy is at stake - except that nothing either Man may do will now suffice to take away the cup of suffering that has been prepared for us. No peace without justice and no justice with dishonest money.

Vote Blue, Vote Red, Vote for one of the other guys if you like. Just remember to vote for yellow- (early and often!)

auta i lome!
Aure entuluva.
TownCrier
(11/01/2004; 16:48:47 MDT - Msg ID: 125998)
NYMEX launches Brent oil open outcry in Dublin
http://www.borsaitalia.it/fwa-cgi-bin/news.pl?id=1099347685nN01682509&tit=UPDATE%204-NYMEX%20launches%20Brent%20oil%20open%20outcry%20in%20Dublin&type=internazionali&ling=ENDUBLIN, Nov 1 (Reuters) - The New York Mercantile Exchange launched a Brent crude oil futures contract in Dublin on Monday, moving across the Atlantic to challenge London's International Petroleum Exchange.

NYMEX aims to draw business from the IPE as the established exchange cuts its trading floor hours and moves towards more electronic trading.

By the close of trade, volume reached an estimated 5,726 contracts, the NYMEX said, and the front-month January contract settled at $46.95, compared with January IPE Brent's closing price of $46.99.

NYMEX -- which runs open outcry trade in New York from 10 a.m. until 2.30 p.m. local time -- has long aspired to have its own Brent contract, used as a benchmark for trading European, Middle Eastern and West African crudes.

"To have an opportunity to launch the product in the European time zone is very important," NYMEX President James Newsome told Reuters.

Previous attempts to launch NYMEX Brent have failed, including a New York-based contract which floundered in the wake of the September 11 attacks.

-----(from url)-----

Of course!

R.
R Powell
(11/01/2004; 16:59:10 MDT - Msg ID: 125999)
Conspiracy question
If the price of gold is totally controled by the Evil Cabal with paper derivatives, then why can't the government cabal also control (lower) the cost of oil? Or perhaps lower heating oil prices in the winter and lower gasoline prices in the summer? Yes, there is a derivatives market for these crude derivatives.

Why didn't the billions of yen that the Bank of Japan spent to buy dollars support the dollar? Perhaps, to some extent it did? I don't know. If so, how much so? For how long? What force was stronger than this intervention (manipulation)?

TownCrier
(11/01/2004; 17:01:38 MDT - Msg ID: 126000)
New product allows South Africans to invest in bullion
http://www.miningweekly.co.za/components/print.asp?id=59117South African institutional and retail investors have the opportunity to invest in gold bullion, following the listing of Absa Corporate and Merchant Bank's NewGold Gold Bullion Debentures on the JSE Securities Exchange.

The debentures are JSE-listed securities, fully backed by gold bullion, making South Africa on the third country in the world to give investors the opportunity to invest in gold bullion.

Each debenture is initially valued at 1/100 of one fine troy ounce of gold, and is issued by NewGold Issuer Limited, a public company.

Proceeds of the issue of debentures will be used to acquire gold bullion, in the form of 400-oz London Good Delivery Bars, and will be held in safe custody by Rand Refinery.

The NewGold initiative was launched by Absa and the World Gold Council... The World Gold Council also backed the launch of Gold Bullion Securities...

In just under 11 months since listing on the London Stock Exchange, Gold Bullion Securities, trading in both Australian and UK products, has resulted in 58 tons in trust...

Until now, South African investors could only invest in gold through Krugerrands, jewellery and gold shares. NewGold is attempting to change that...

"For the first time, South African investors can invest in a convenient, secure and cost-effective way in a new asset class. This gives them full exposure to the gold price, which, throughout history, has proven to be a necessary component of every portfolio..."

----(from url)---

Of course! Paperize it to the limit. The official line is ever and always to give them EXPOSURE to the gold price, but under all circumstances don't give them the gold. Same old game with new tokens and new players. YAWN.

R.
R Powell
(11/01/2004; 17:05:58 MDT - Msg ID: 126001)
Joanne
Thanks for voicing an opinion (125983). I can see that, unlike some, you can differentiate between paper investments and buying physical only.

I'm not trying to advocate or instigate anything here but thoughtful discussion.

**************

"Don't put your hope in ungodly men, or
Be a slave to what somebody else believes.
If you need somebody you can trust,
trust yourself."
----Bob Dylan
TownCrier
(11/01/2004; 17:06:39 MDT - Msg ID: 126002)
NYMEX crude skids 3.2 pct ahead of U.S. vote
http://www.borsaitalia.it/fwa-cgi-bin/news.pl?id=1099343356nN01418465&tit=CORRECTED%20-%20NYMEX%20crude%20skids%203.2%20pct%20ahead%20of%20U.S.%20vote&type=internazionali&ling=ENNEW YORK, Nov 1 (Reuters) - NYMEX crude futures fell below $50 on Monday, hitting their lowest level in a month...

The New York Mercantile Exchange has launched a Brent crude futures trading floor in Dublin from Monday, starting from 1000 GMT.

-----(from url)-----

Of course!

R.
TownCrier
(11/01/2004; 17:34:36 MDT - Msg ID: 126003)
Life in the trenches -- The banks are at their old tricks again
http://www.busrep.co.za/index.php?fSectionId=553&fArticleId=2281754BusinessReport O&A by Alide Dasnois

Among other things, Hawkins said, the task group had found that:

--Bank charges on a set of transactions (electronic fund transfers, cheques issued, cash withdrawals, ATM deposits and stop orders) were as much as five times higher at South African banks than at US banks.

--Of nine South African savings accounts examined in 2003 only one earned real interest.

Imagine a customer earning R500 a week. Each week her salary cheque is deposited into her Mzansi account. That costs her nothing. But if she has a bit of cash to deposit as well, she will have to pay up to R10.75 for each deposit.

Say she needs to withdraw money for the household shopping and a bit more for kids' shoes. Each withdrawal will cost up to R10.75 if she goes to a bank and up to R5 at an ATM.

If she wants to know her account balance it will cost her R2. If she makes a mistake and punches in the figure of R1 000 instead of R100 for her next withdrawal the penalty will be R1. So far, on her R500 weekly salary, she has paid her bank up to R35.25. And this is cheap banking?

It gets worse. If our customer miscalculates her cash needs and has to make more than five withdrawals in a month, woe to her. The banks will slap on a penalty fee of up to twice the usual transaction cost.

But our customer is grateful to have been granted a bank account at all, so instead of swearing at the teller, kicking the ATM and shredding her mini-statement (cost: up to R2), she decides to do her duty as a patriotic newly banked person and heed Trevor Manuel's exhortation to save.

She calculates that she can afford to put aside about R25 a week. On her Mzansi account this will earn her 0.25 percent in interest a year. Only when she manages to save R15 000 - in about 12 years - will she reach the giddy heights of 2.25 percent interest a year. With inflation at about 3.7 percent she'll be losing money faster than you can say "Saswitch".

------(from article at url)-----

This article is helpful as a study of contrast. To put the value of gold in perspective from the vantage point of a non-U.S. wage earner, the twelve-year savings figure of R15,000 would, at current prices, buy only 5.7 ounces of gold.

From our perspective, however, that same 5.7 ounces in precious hard-won savings can be had for the easy price of scraping up $2,500 -- something any teenager flipping burgers could do in a year with a little focus.

As decades-old globalizing trends continue to bring nations ever closer together, the wildly disproportionate purchasing power parities of a universal ounce of gold will align at the higher precious values of the spectrum at play in the world today. And with a nod to growth in the benefits of such an item with inherent universal utility, perhaps alignment should be expected at levels much much higher than anything currently seen. Time reveals all.

R.
Camel
(11/01/2004; 18:11:23 MDT - Msg ID: 126004)
Eye for an Eye
Well there you have it, an Eye for an Eye. Today's suicide bomber in Israel was a Palestinian teenager who dropped out of school to avenge has father who was killed by the Israelis. A lot of the pollsters are saying that it is the 20 something airheads who will decide the election.Maybe thats the way it should be . They are the ones that will have to live in the world. The rest of us will just have to ride off into the sunset(with our gold ,of course)
Dollar Bill
(11/01/2004; 20:40:56 MDT - Msg ID: 126005)
.,.
Camel, israel is leaving gaza because of a looming issue that will, in a couple years, become news, gaza strip will be out of groundwater. What is left is polluted.
Lack of water will cause a migration out of gaza. Same is forecast for paledtinian parts of the west bank.
In some parts of the world looming lack of water is going to undermine the economies. Speaking of liquid,
So many problems are looming, that I bet central bankers are going out for a drink.
Tiburon
(11/01/2004; 22:01:27 MDT - Msg ID: 126006)
Dollar Bill
Never would have thought it was simple politics that drew me in, lo, these 8 months of lurking. You may have it right, Dollar Bill. There is little remediation available for the water issue in Gaza, not less the cavalier (brigand?) attitude of the 'players' in Gaza...sad that, really, but hence all of us, and more rapidly should we decline to gird ourselves 'gainst the coming storm.

Desalination, alignment with EU-courting Turkey for it's water sources, channeling of immense violent terrorist resources towards rationalization of water use in the Strip: - All these are viable, though unfortunately unlikely choices to be made by the 'body politic', Gaza.

Meantime, Israel's motives, (or if I may, Sharon, IMF-Council of Foreign Relations votive) in rendering Gaza Judenrein remain to me a mystery...for surely no practical tactical or even strategic argumentation has proved convincing in my view.

Sorry to enter in, on so mundane a level. On a cheerier note, I'm a tiny holder, much less than a 'small holder'. I own a Kilogram of Gold (only), and have questions, and more so after reading here many months. I wish to address them but about the Oligarchy that Rules Israel I have little to say here. I Love the Land of Israel, and believe it's rescue would be declaring tax-free and a Gold-Backed Shekel. Simple, and Clear. And positioned as Israel is, poised between the purposes of East and West, perhaps significant.

NOT, goes without saying, with the Democratic Despots that presently hold sway. My 2 cents.
Tiburon
(11/01/2004; 23:02:48 MDT - Msg ID: 126007)
Newbie Stuff
Anyway, here's Question #1.

And please consider practical ramifications.

While I'm grateful, hand trembling on the box key as I watched the plunge and neck wrenching ride since last February, that my holding was simply a block of inert "all or nothing", in the longer term, should I incline towards converting this to 10 ounce bullion, say three, and a couple of ounces? I'm thinking...this is yes, "nest egg" and real, but am I trapped here due transport considerations cross-border? (in Canada?) Time comes I may need to change my "Wealth" to a piece of a property...even here, yes. But what if that place is 'abroad'?

What form/size of gold is most flexible for conversion to temporarily favourable currency in a time of crisis? For a mobile individual. Guidance? Opinions?

Answers will guide my future 'wished for' purchases. I'm bitten, Tiburon that I am, quite bad by the 'Goldbug'...
Gandalf the White
(11/02/2004; 00:07:40 MDT - Msg ID: 126008)
Sir Tiburon
Tiburon (11/01/04; 23:02:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 126007)
Newbie Stuff
===
"WELCOME" and may I also say, "GOOD Question !"
Let us think outloud about this !
You made your initial purchase of YELLOW as a one KILO bar at the peak price time in Feb. '04 !
WHY, would you consider "breaking" the bar up into smaller purchase items ?
You have a PERFECT doorstop ! <;-)
May I suggest that you contact USAGOLD and discuss ALL the possibilities, INCLUDING the requirements for transporting YELLOW out of the country, for your peace of mind !
The best way, IMHO, to stay with your "false start" (as it will always make you THINK !) is to slowly add to IT, with continued purchases of the pre '33 bullion coins (low PREMIUMS) that are not LEGAL TENDER in your present or future locale.
Others will give you more thoughts to consider.
GW

968
(11/02/2004; 02:44:10 MDT - Msg ID: 126009)
Kazakhstan CB increases gold exchange reserves.
01.11 / 16:04 | National Bank: gold exchange reserves keep on growing

Astana. November 1. KAZINFORM. Comparing to the state in late October the volume of gold exchange reserves of the country has increased by 44 percent up to USD 7.2 billion. This became possible due to substantial exceed of currency supply over demand. Chairman of the National Bank of Kazakhstan Anvar Saidenov informed of this today addressing the joint session of Parliament houses. This volume of gold exchange reserves reimburses about 5 months of goods and services import. According to the predictions of macroeconomic indexes for 2005 gold exchange reserves are expected to grow by 11-12 percent.
During 9 months of the current year the monetary base in Kazakhstan has increased by 27 percent (up to 400 billion KZT); monetary supply � by 25 percent (up to 1.312 billion KZT); cash volume � by 31 percent (up to 312 billion KZT). In general, by the end of the year monetary growth in the republic will amount to 25.8 percent. Analogous indexes of the previous year were 21 percent.

In 2005 the forecast growth of monetary supply by 23-24 will conform to the tempos of economic development of the country, said the banker.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The CB's of countries who have suffered monetary crises over the recent years keep on buying...
Caradoc
(11/02/2004; 04:45:56 MDT - Msg ID: 126010)
Bloomberg: gold to rise
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=aCPiTMFLk3Gw&refer=usworth reading. -Caradoc
YGM
(11/02/2004; 04:49:47 MDT - Msg ID: 126011)
Is Barrick Under Water W/ Their Hedge Book??
http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=bondsNews&storyID=6679889One might wonder, being as they're issueing bonds....As with Paper Hedge sales they play the paper game much better than they mine Gold......YGM

Article...Reuters
Bonds News
advertisement


CORRECTED - Barrick Gold files $1 bln debt shelf
Mon Nov 1, 2004 04:08 PM ET
In WASHINGTON item headlined "Barrik Gold files $1 bln debt shelf," please read headline as ... Barrick Gold files $1 bln debt shelf ... (fixes typo).
A corrected repetition follows:

WASHINGTON, Nov 1 (Reuters) - Gold producer Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX.TO: Quote, Profile, Research) (HCX.TO: Quote, Profile, Research) on Monday said it plans to periodically sell up to $1 billion in debt securities.

In a registration statement filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, the Toronto-based company said it plans to use proceeds for debt repayment, investments in subsidiaries, capital spending and other general corporate purposes.

Under a shelf registration, a company may sell securities in one or more separate offerings with the size, price and terms to be determined at the time of sale.


� Reuters 2004. All Rights Reserved.





Gondolin
(11/02/2004; 09:42:37 MDT - Msg ID: 126012)
The expected pre-election drop
$6 plus drop today. Hardly unexpected.
TownCrier
(11/02/2004; 10:18:29 MDT - Msg ID: 126013)
Fed gooses system, 'permanently' adds $1.2 billion, buys Treasuries outright
Despite no pressure from the overnight market in fed funds, trading in line with current FOMC policy targets, the Trading Desk for the Federal Reserve today nonetheless intervened in the open market, buying outright U.S. Treasuries maturing from February 2007 to February 2008 with $1.203 billion in fresh money created expressly for this event. It is through these effortless keystroke maneuvers that the Fed may simulaneously puff up the money supply with new cash reserves for the banking system, and also provide props for the bond market -- this time targeting the yield curve 2-3 years out.

There is no limit how deep the drifts can grow, nor how thin the dollar's residual value can be stretched thereby. Choose gold.

R.
TownCrier
(11/02/2004; 11:06:33 MDT - Msg ID: 126014)
Eurosystem continues paring, foreign currency reserves losing excess over gold
The weekly consolidated financial statement of the Eurosystem released today shows once again that on the week portfolio transactions have more greatly trimmed the foreign currency position of international reserves. Gold reserves under terms of the renewed central bank agreement on gold (effective from September 27, 2004) were trimmed by EUR 17 million (1.6 tonne) to EUR 130.581 billion whereas the net position in foreign currency fell by 100 million to EUR 167.6 billion, narrowing the distance between the two bit by bit.

R.
Zhisheng
(11/02/2004; 11:41:03 MDT - Msg ID: 126015)
Up and Down
but not in measured cadence.

Gold closed down just over $7 for the day, which is about 1.7%. During the same time the dollar rose about .6, which is about .7%.

So gold has overreacted for whatever reason (bull trap, central bank manipulation, election manipulation, etc.). The implication is however that either the dollar will follow another percent or so to justify the gold drop, or the gold will bounce back up again in short order.

For the currency market has much more inertia in these times than the gold market.
ge
(11/02/2004; 12:22:30 MDT - Msg ID: 126016)
Iran is to launch an oil trading market for Middle East - June 16, 2004
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/story/0,3604,1239644,00.html"The Tehran oil bourse is scheduled to open in 2005".
...Dated but interesting....
TownCrier
(11/02/2004; 13:09:59 MDT - Msg ID: 126017)
The choice is clear
http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh22679_2004-11-02_18-54-46_n02466348_newsmlHEADLINE: Argentina debt offer sweeter, but still bitter

BUENOS AIRES, Argentina, Nov 2 (Reuters) - Argentina's private creditors were predictably angry Tuesday over the government's final offer to pay back a fraction of $100 billion debt in default for three years, but analysts and markets saw hope for the world's biggest ever debt restructuring.

Economy Minister Roberto Lavagna unveiled details late Monday for the issue of up to $41.8 billion in new bonds in exchange for old debt....

Nowhere was the frustration more patent than in Italy, where more than 15 percent of the defaulted debt rots mostly in pensioners' retirement portfolios.

...maturities run up to 40 years and investors still face losing 70 percent of their money, a record for modern-day sovereign restructurings.

"I would be willing to accept a 75 per cent payback as a form of solidarity with the people of Argentina," said Italian Rodolfo Tabacchi, 68, who invested almost all his retirement bonus, or 100,000 euros, in Argentine debt before South America's economy collapsed and defaulted in January 2002.

Far from the emotional side of the story in Italy, number crunchers on Wall Street produced somewhat more optimistic opinions about the final offer, built on an initial proposal in Dubai in 2003 and modifications in June.

----(from url)----

Meanwhile, as creditors gnash teeth, the country has boosted its own official gold holdings by over 50 tonnes. Creditors would have been better served had they, too, gone that route. The choice is clear. Choose gold.

R.
USAGOLD Daily Market Report
(11/02/2004; 13:41:12 MDT - Msg ID: 126018)
Page Update!
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Daily Gold Market Report has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.

---closing market excerpts----

Comex gold futures plunged more than $7, or over 1.7%, Tuesday on speculative profit taking spurred by pre-placed stop-loss sell orders and the slightly firmer U.S. dollar ahead of the U.S. presidential election results.

The most-active December contract (100 ounces each) settled $7.40 lower at $420.80.

December prices started $1.70 lower at $426.50 on light fund profit taking as the U.S. went to the polls. However, this selling pressure took place amid a scarce buyer environment, which kept prices on the back foot through the morning.

Pre-placed automatic sell orders then added fuel to the descent by generating surges in sales volumes as prices stepped lower.

As a result, trading volumes ballooned as the session progressed, jumping from an estimated 13,000 lots at 10 a.m. EST to over 75,000 lots, or 7.5 million "ounces", just three hours later.

By the end of the session, 100,000 futures contracts and 30,000 options traded hands.


...Brien Lundin, editor of Gold Newslettersaid a Kerry victory, in the long term, would be bearish for "any investment sector that has enjoyed significant gains over the past year or more."

Kerry has promised to roll back Bush's tax cuts dramatically, and the very favorable long-term capital gains tax rate would appear to be a prime target under his administration, he explained.

"Investors holding sizeable long-term gains on paper would want to realize those gains -- in other words, sell -- rather than place them at the risk of potentially higher tax rates," he said.

And "if Bush wins, the picture is ... not so clear, but most feel rates will stay flat to lower -- this will be negative the dollar and supportive of gold," Charles Nedoss, analyst at Peak Trading Group said.

Lundin believes a Bush victory would be bullish for gold and mining stocks over the long term, "because of the favorable tax regime that encourages investment."

In addition, "a post-election Bush administration would feel less pressure to keep gold and other commodity prices in check," he said.

-----(see url for access to full news, 24-hr international newswire)---
Toolie
(11/02/2004; 13:41:35 MDT - Msg ID: 126019)
World Central Bank gold holdings decline 3.2% since November 2002
http://www.newratings.com/analyst_news/article_503696.htmlsnip: The gold reserves of China, Venezuela and Argentina have increased during the two-year period, while Switzerland, Portugal, United Kingdom, Canada, Netherlands and Greece have sold off a part of their holdings, the analyst adds (end snip)
Usul
(11/02/2004; 13:43:13 MDT - Msg ID: 126020)
Veteran Gulf ruler dies
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/low/world/middle_east/3975737.stmThe veteran ruler of the United Arab Emirates, Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan al-Nahyan of Abu Dhabi, has died. [link]

"On May 23rd and for four glorious days,
the much anticipated third entry of His Highness
Shaikh Zayed Bin Sultan Al-Nahyan,
ruler of the Arab Emirate
was revealed to 170,000 enthusiastic fans
at the Chelsea Flower Show 2000.
Winner of two previous gold medals
with The Room of Life
and The Garden of the Book of Gold,
The Garden Of The Night,
completes the trilogy."

Abou Ben Adhem (may his tribe increase!)
Awoke one night from a deep dream of peace,
And saw, within the moonlight in his room,
Making it rich, and like a lily in bloom,
An angel writing in a book of gold:�
Exceeding peace had made Ben Adhem bold,
And to the presence in the room he said,
�What writest thou?��The vision rais'd its head,
And with a look made of all sweet accord,
Answer'd, �The names of those who love the Lord.�
�And is mine one?� said Abou. �Nay, not so,�
Replied the angel. Abou spoke more low,
But cheerly still; and said, �I pray thee, then,
Write me as one that loves his fellow men.�
The angel wrote, and vanish'd. The next night
It came again with a great wakening light,
And show'd the names whom love of God had blest,
And lo! Ben Adhem's name led all the rest.

James Leigh Hunt (1784-1859)
TownCrier
(11/02/2004; 13:57:46 MDT - Msg ID: 126021)
Stealing gold, four pay highest price
http://nation.ittefaq.com/artman/publish/article_13574.shtmlHEADLINE: 100 tolas of gold looted, Mob lynches 4 in city

(Nov 2, 2004) -- Four alleged dacoits were lynched by angry mob at Charaspur area under Hazaribagh police station in the city yesterday when they were trying to flee with the booty...

Police rescued three other members of the gang, grievously injured in the mob beating...

....a gang of dacoits numbering about nine stormed into the house of one Shamsul Haque in the area at about 7:00am and looted valuables, including 80 tolas of gold...

The gang entered the house of the businessman introducing themselves as members of a law enforcement agency and inquired about his son. But after entering the house, they tied up all the family members and looted the valuables at gunpoint.

The gang also beat up Minara Begum, wife of Shamsul Haque, as she raised the alarm.

The same gang entered another nearby house of Fazlul Haque and looted 10 to 15 tolas of gold.

As the news of the dacoity quickly spread in the area, local people gathered in the area and chased them.

Hundreds of local people encircled the dacoits in their broken down runaway trawler and caught at least seven of them. The angry mob gave them a good beating in which the four of them died on the spot.

-----(from url)----

Two points to make.

#1) It's better to buy your gold than to try to steal it from good people.

#2) Note the common occurance of gold savings in these Bangladesh households... as natural as having clothes and furniture.

R.
TownCrier
(11/02/2004; 14:19:28 MDT - Msg ID: 126022)
On bringing a knife to a gunfight...
http://www.columbiatribune.com/2004/Nov/20041102Busi012.aspHEADLINE: Bin Laden pledges to bankrupt U.S. economy

CAIRO, Egypt (AP) - Osama bin Laden vowed to bleed America to bankruptcy, according to a full transcript of unaired portions of a videotape released yesterday...

Bin Laden boasted that for every $1 al-Qaida has spent on terrorist strikes, it has cost the United States $1 million in economic fallout and military spending, including emergency funding for Iraq and Afghanistan.

Bin Laden dwelled on al-Qaida's economic strategy against the United States, according to the complete transcript of the 18-minute video that aired on Al-Jazeera and was obtained by U.S. intelligence.

The terror mastermind whose al-Qaida network carried out the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks credited the religiously inspired Arab volunteers whom he fought with against the Soviets in Afghanistan with having "bled Russia for 10 years, until it went bankrupt and was forced to withdraw in defeat." He suggested the same strategy would work against the United States.

"So we are continuing this policy in bleeding America to the point of bankruptcy," a calm and forceful bin Laden said...

-----(from url)-----

Just as the old mockery applies about not showing up to a gunfight with only a knife, don't find yourself caught in an economic battle without the solid armor and weaponry of gold to see you shining safely through the wrack. Think of gold ownership as your civil and civic duty so that, at a minimum, you shall not become an economic casualty to further burden your fellow troops.

R.
R Powell
(11/02/2004; 16:08:12 MDT - Msg ID: 126023)
Deficit
http://www.boston.com/business/articles/2004/11/02/treasury_says_it_must_borrow_record_147b_next_quarter/ It's still growing. It's amazing. Is there no end?
Boilermaker
(11/02/2004; 17:17:53 MDT - Msg ID: 126024)
Gold Spot Market
Spot market definition:
A market in which commodities, such as grain, gold, crude oil, or RAM chips, are bought and sold for cash and delivered immediately. also called cash market.

Question; Who sets and reports the "spot" price of gold during US trading hours and how do they establish the price? Comex is for futures and options only, isn't it? I would think that physical dealers would quote the spot price but do they just use the near term paper contracts as a base?

My reason for asking is that the spot market in the US is small and fractured compared to the futures market. Do you think the tail (futures) is wagging my poor dog Spot? Do you think that some futures players have spurious motives for selling gold at prices where they do? Do you think they can deliver if asked? MK/CPM delivers!

BTW I'll be attending a neighbor's election night party to cheer/boo the results. I hope they don't ask me about my views I might not be invited to the next one.
Pessimistic PM promoter in Ohio
R Powell
(11/02/2004; 18:12:22 MDT - Msg ID: 126025)
Boilermaker
Election update: from what little I can find, mostly exit polls, it appears that Kerry is leading and the results are not quite as close as many had thought they would be. Do exit polls have much accuracy?

Hello Boilermaker. You stated...

"Do you think that some futures players have spurious motives for selling gold at prices where they do? Do you think they can deliver if asked? MK/CPM delivers!"

Spurious implies illegitimate or false. My opinion is no, but they may have other motives!

Can I ask one? Do you think that some futures
players have spurious motives for BUYING gold at prices
where they do?

I do hope that whoever wins, it is not even close enough to be contested. Then again, if it were very close and there were cries of foul and lawsuits flying, would such a situation move the POG?
rich
Aristotle
(11/02/2004; 19:46:16 MDT - Msg ID: 126026)
Three in one for (Poor)Rich, others
Your glaring interpretive error on my "nonsense" comment shows once and for all that you're a sorry if not hopeless figure at reading for context. I wasn't talking about profits. Have another look. *Maybe* you'll see your error. Absent that ability, there's really no way for me to to believe directing any more comments toward you wouldn't be a complete waste of time and space. Living in a child's world, where you see only what you want to see while ignoring all that you don't immediately understand, it doesn't surprise me that you'd try to have others dismiss my message as something from a 'fanatic' lacking your own self-assured expertise.

(Not)Rich, I sincerely hope your affliction is nothing more sinister or permanent than being too wet behind the ears and grossly naive to know any better.

Just for fun, before I sign off, let's revisit two of the rantings of this so-called dogmatic fanatic who, according to young (Counterparty)Rich, has not one bit of tolerance for paper........... how very wrong, and how very poor his memory!

First this one. Look for the *******highlighted******** sentiment that's openly and starkly at odds with the fanatical caricature portrait that (IOU)Rich tries to paint of me.


Aristotle (5/13/02; 12:37:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 75556)
The (Personal) Gold Standard revisited

In this representative democratic republic system of ours, we each have (most notably) four votes apiece to change the world more to our liking. Actually, we have those votes, and also the persuasive powers of our convictions to lobby our leaders for change. The sad truth is that we remain a tiny voice lost in a wide crowd. So where do we turn to improve the quality of our personal experience and interactions with the world at large?

As near as I can tell, the primary appeal among some of us for a return to a Gold Standard is for the integrity it would bring to our monetary system. At least that seems to be the prevailing perception, anyway. (A false one, but that's the topic of previous post.)

The truth of the matter is that if we pause to consider the monetary system as a whole, we quickly realize that it's far more complex and runs far deeper than the superficial quality of the coins that happen to be jingling in our pockets. Given the nature of the system, money (and its integrity) can be no better than the commercial integrity of our banking institutions against a political backstop that has the wherewithal to change the rules smack in the middle of the game.

As we've seen in real life, the form of our currency may be Gold one day, then cupro-nickel the next. You may vote and lobby to the end of your days, and if you live to be a thousand this won't change a thing.

So what's the next best thing? Get on with your life!!! Take a good look around, make the most of the situation at hand, and apply your energies where they might have meaning. Ply your trade and be a success. After all, the nature of your money is secondary to your real concerns. Or it certainly should be.

Sure, sure, the integrity of the Monetary System is very important to all of us. After all, it plays an important role in facilitating the human business of, well... BUSINESS! We try to organize our lives and our operations so that we can plan ahead and reasonably know that our future will be secure. In business, we do that through the wonderful invention of contracts. Contracts to build, contracts to buy, contracts to borrow, and any variation you can imagine. Our development of the Monetary System grew out of our human desire to plan forward. For future security.

A huge *huge* HUGE mistake that many people make, however, is in somehow confusing their personal security with the integrity and fate of the money they use. Note that I said only "money" and not "Monetary System." To be sure, our personal security is very much intertwined with the Monetary System because it forms the backbone of our network of contracts. But that's independent of the monetary unit itself. The System can thrive, and the human business of business can thrive, even as the money within the system suffers a well-recognized long slow sliding death by inflation.

Let me put this as simply as I can.

If your physical or emotional well-being depends upon the fate and integrity of your monetary unit, then something is seriously out of balance. You have placed way too much of your own life's future security on a throw of the dice.

Understand this: the integrity of the Monetary System is more important than the Money itself. As a result, (and we've seen this constantly occur in our real lives,) the value and nature of our currency will always be sacrificed as necessary to save the integrity of the System. Gold one day, paper the next. We can do nothing to change this, nor should we really care if we don't allow ourselves to be overly exposed to the effects of a diminishing (some would say "dishonest") unit of money.

So what's to be done? Readjust your position! Money is merely the ethereal middle-ground of contracts, and in our quest for security, this is no place to live! Put yourself on a Personal Gold Standard. Carry from month to month or quarter to quarter no greater quantity of money than you reasonably expect you'll need. ************Take your paycheck, earnings, income, whatever; drop it in your checking account, pay your bills, contemplate an attractive investment or two, buy some new patio furniture, and roll the purchasing power represented by any leftover money into Gold.*************

In the end, you'll find that even though you must chart a course through a life surrounded by "dishonest" ever-failing money, you can take comfort that your actual savings are "honest" and secure, come what may. And that's all you really wanted all along, right? Security.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle


Finally, this one.


Aristotle (6/14/04; 02:21:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 122069)
eggs and baskets
I reckon the guiding wisdom of eggs in baskets depends mostly upon the mission of the courier.

I don't see it so much as an issue of percentage of all or none or somewhere in between. Let me elaborate.

Back in the day, when I had occasion to assist (meaning observe) my dear grandmother in the baking of delicious pies and breads, and if it was discovered that more eggs were needed complete the job, I'd be sent to the hen house with, drumroll please... yes, a basket.

I assure you, much more important than the issue of whether or not I put *ALL* of the eggs in that *ONE* basket, was the issue of whether or not I arrived back to the kitchen with eggs, yes, REAL EGGS in that basket.

Dear grandmother never once interrogated me on the finer detail of the actual percentage of eggs that I delivered from their previous hen owners. The thing that determined whether or not we'd be enjoying our cake later that day was whether or not I had indeed gathered Eggs.

I'd have been a perfect fool in the errand had I taken the so-called "investment" route and filled my egg-basket with a diversified portfolio of egg-producer shares (some feathers) or even a wholly-owned egg producer (a hen) or egg futures (some baby chicks or a bag of feed) or some sort of paper eggs.

But if you want to bake a cake, you definitely need Real Eggs to crack; and if you want to build meaningful savings, you definitely need Real Gold.

Every "courier" needs to understand his objective, and within that context, perhaps it is *is* IS entirely appropriate to have in his basket Eggs, and nothing but Eggs.

************As I've said previously, for me, I think converting my earnings excesses into 100% Physical Gold savings is the perfect balance to my 100% DOLLAR-denominated incomes. Seen that way, I don't think anyone could accuse me of having ALL of my eggs in one basket, but OH how they do envy me my basket.*********

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle


What more can I say? Can't have too much of a *truly* good thing...

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle
R Powell
(11/02/2004; 19:59:18 MDT - Msg ID: 126027)
Aristotle
Good evening Sir, your words...


".....there's really no way for me to to believe directing any more comments toward you wouldn't be a complete waste of time and space."

I agree......question is..of whose time.(g)
rich
goldquest
(11/02/2004; 22:25:00 MDT - Msg ID: 126028)
pssssssst!
i don't like it, it's too quiet! fire a flare!
YGM
(11/02/2004; 22:35:41 MDT - Msg ID: 126029)
goldquest....
I think Gandy let the fire go out in the great hall...He's busy watching to see if Hanoi John or GW wins and what effect it may have on his Golden booty.....YGM.
goldquest
(11/02/2004; 22:54:33 MDT - Msg ID: 126030)
If Shrub wins
it's bad news for the Enron crooks! They'll have to wait another four years for their pardons!
mas
(11/03/2004; 04:47:51 MDT - Msg ID: 126031)
So who won?
Any more results?
Ohio? And?
Toolie
(11/03/2004; 05:36:44 MDT - Msg ID: 126032)
Gold Trade Liberalized
http://www.iranmania.com/News/ArticleView/Default.asp?NewsCode=26672&NewsKind=Business%20%26%20EconomySnip: LONDON, Nov 3 (IranMania) - Despite the insistence of the Central Bank of Iran (CBI) that the export of should be conducted with its authorization, a senior Ministry of Industries and Mines official stressed on Tuesday that the government has already liberalized gold trade�..

"The CBI should not have created any obstacles to the export of gold in the first place," he said, adding that at present, there is no difference between the export of gold and iron ore�.

Gold exploration projects are highly economical in Iran, which is the reason why British and Canadian companies are involved in such projects in the country. (end snip)
YGM
(11/03/2004; 06:30:14 MDT - Msg ID: 126033)
Soros....
Off to the monestary now big fella! Don't forget your Gold!
Zhisheng
(11/03/2004; 07:04:28 MDT - Msg ID: 126034)
Morning After
Mr. U. S. Dollar seems to be ruminating on four more years of war, trade deficits, and deficit spending, while drinking tomato juice to mitigate the effect of last night's party.
Zhisheng
(11/03/2004; 08:59:05 MDT - Msg ID: 126035)
The Spring Coils More Tightly.
The dollar has now dropped nigh to last week's low, while gold is about $6 off last week's high.

Dollar Bill
(11/03/2004; 09:28:00 MDT - Msg ID: 126036)
.,.
Tiburon, Greetings and glad you have started typeing.
You said;
"I Love the Land of Israel, and believe it's rescue would be declaring tax-free and a Gold-Backed Shekel. Simple, and Clear."
I wondered, when Sharon a couple years ago said in a frustrated response to some UN vote I believe, that "Isreal is now on its own." He did not say it in a sad way, but in a way that made me think they did have some financial plan for that if it came to that.
Well, not a day went by before Bush and other US govt. folks said that Israel is not alone, ect.
I thought the quick response was not just diplomatic, but financial. There are Jewish men strewn throughout the financial system of the world. They have not forgotten the holocost, which happened rather recently actually. 50 years is hardly a generation.
If Israel did have to go it alone, they could probably do quite a bit. If the dollar-US turned against them, and pushed them into a wall, couldnt the Jewish men of the world take thier companies offshore? From around the globe they could strongly argue to thier business partners in whatever field, to do business in ways that whomever the state of Isreal decided to support as reserve currency, it would be a mighty force that they could bring to that currency.
If they needed, they could form a currency alliance with a few asian countries, perhaps? I think thier strength is financially far greater than just what looking at the books of Israel would reveal.
Not that Jewish men are all in lock step with each other at this time, no they are not, but if the state of Israel survival financially required them to really bond together and do something major and dramatic and try to change the financial world, they would do it.
Just guessing.
I still think gold has a good future. It might have come sooner if kerry got in there, but I did not vote for that.
I am content to wait till the global economy fails for econoomic reasons without having to watch the show of the UN controlling the reserve currency in the meantime.
Maybe next time they go for a global fiat system, after the first time failure gives us a chance to do it in a smarter way. Greenspans attempt to form the global economic system during his watch is too much an effort done -on the fly- because they dont see any option but typical fiat collapse if they dont.
But, starting from the ashes of the first attempt, more voices can help construct it next time, and it can be done in a way that doesnt savage the local economy of so many countries.
Am I wrong when I guess that alcohol usage rears its head on the forum sometimes? Moderation.
Gandalf the White
(11/03/2004; 10:17:13 MDT - Msg ID: 126037)
Thanks ALL for holding your breath and waiting ! <;-)
YGM (11/2/04; 22:35:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 126029)
I think Gandy let the fire go out in the great hall...
===
YES, Sir YGM, I was very busy getting all the Hobbits to vote !
I shall restart the FIRE in the GREAT HALL and relax now !
<;-)
Clink!
(11/03/2004; 10:31:26 MDT - Msg ID: 126038)
@ Zhisheng - the coiled spring
Coiled spring is indeed the phrase. I wonder how quickly cracks will appear in the optimistic facade created for the election. W may have won re-election, but I get the feeling that it will turn out to be a pyrrhic victory. That's not my being partisan - I would have said the same if it had gone the other way.

C!
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(11/03/2004; 11:18:27 MDT - Msg ID: 126039)
A risk-free request, helping you enter the gold market with grace and confidence.
http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html

Get a head start on the gold market!
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(11/03/2004; 11:20:37 MDT - Msg ID: 126040)
What you need to know before you buy your first ounce of gold...
http://www.usagold.com/cpm/goldhelp.html

Q. I've noticed that USAGOLD / Centennial stresses education more than most of your competitors. Why is that?

MK. For years, we have emphasized "We educate first-time investors" in our advertising. We believe education to be the key to successful gold ownership. To make a long story short, we tend to keep our clientele as they become better educated, while many of our competitors tend to lose their clientele once they become educated. It shows in the type of services we consider important to complement our sales and delivery programs.

Q. What are some of the criteria a prospective investor should look for in a gold firm?

MK. Credibility, longevity, pricing, service and compatibility -- all come into the mix. Of those I rate credibility and its sister virtues -- reliability and reputability -- the most important. Too many of the national firms have brokers who were selling condos at the beach or automobiles a month ago and now suddenly they've become "gold experts" selling leverage schemes, $50,000 rare coins, reproduction medallions at 25 times their gold content, or overpriced silver investments. Most sophisticated gold investors would probably like to avoid that sort of thing.

Clink!
(11/03/2004; 11:26:34 MDT - Msg ID: 126041)
More fallout from the voting
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/041103/law065_1.htmlMore proof that paper gold (here in the form of a mining stock) is prone to more risk than physical. While the share price has been waning for some weeks, it dropped from yesterday's $2.88 close to a low of $1.11 today. Ouch ! Why ? For some reason, the folk in Montana don't like the idea of sloshing about large quantities of cyanide in the leaching process, and passed a ballot initiative to say so.

C!
Gandalf the White
(11/03/2004; 11:42:08 MDT - Msg ID: 126042)
The US$ is BACK to the normal picture after the MANIPULATION !
http://charts-d.quote.com:443/1002980432830?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=DX00Y∬erval=10&Ht=600&Wd=800&Display=2&Study=MA&Param1=13&Param2=0&Param3=&FontSize=10Get your YELLOW and "lock-in" your security !
<;-)
TownCrier
(11/03/2004; 12:17:53 MDT - Msg ID: 126043)
New money -- HEADLINE: Fed adding permanent reserves by buying TIPS
http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh44368_2004-11-03_15-37-57_nat001093_newsmlNEW YORK, Nov 3 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve said on Wednesday it was adding permanent reserves to the banking system by buying Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS).

The Fed said it was buying maturities ranging from Jan. 15, 2007 to April 15, 2032. There were no exclusions.

Earlier, the Fed added $3.25 billion in temporary reserves to the banking system through overnight system repurchase agreements.

Fed funds last traded at 1.75 percent, the Fed's current target for the rate.

------(from article at url)-----

The size of the Fed's outright TIPS purchase was $421 million. The $3.25 billion overnight injection of temporary cash was provided sub-FOMC, at 1.725 percent.

Money is easy. Choose gold.

On the election, the argument _could_ have been made that gold should sell off as a result of the political "certainty" accompanying the reelection of the incumbant administration. However, with the resumption in rising prices today it was the correct alternate view prevailed -- that the political continuity makes a firmer argument simply for unabated continuation of gold's 4-year trend, an international ascent to a higher level of economic significance.

Continuity. The trend confidently continues, for years. (see below)

http://www.galmarley.com/ChartApp/Images/USD_Line_5years_300x150.gif

R.
TownCrier
(11/03/2004; 13:31:51 MDT - Msg ID: 126044)
A post-election nugget of truth.
Reflecting on the nature of things while making a cup of tea with the televised post-election speeches of gratitude by the winners and concessions by losers filling the background of my thought, I was suddenly struck on this day with a golden nugget of truth:


"Votes empower a politician. Voters are empowered by gold."

As you give power to others to rule your nation, keep for yourself the power to rule your own life. Choose gold.


Call USAGOLD-Centennial today to position yourself wisely to protect and build your wealth for the many years ahead.

R.
USAGOLD Daily Market Report
(11/03/2004; 16:00:19 MDT - Msg ID: 126045)
Page Update!
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Daily Gold Market Report has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.

--- closing market excerpts ---

Gold futures closed Wednesday with a nearly $5-an-ounce gain as the metals market celebrated President Bush's re-election. A Republican Party victory will "continue the excessive debt creation of the federal government," said Ned Schmidt, editor of investment publication Value View Gold Report.

"The first act of new Republican Congress will be to raise the debt ceiling for the U.S.," so "in short, the mismanagement of U.S. monetary and fiscal policy will continue [and] the second term of Bush will be good to gold/silver investors," he said.

Given that, COMEX December gold futures rose to a high of $426.40 before closing at $425.40, up $4.60.

With Sen. John Kerry conceding, "the case for $500-plus gold may even be better," said Peter Grandich, editor of The Grandich Letter, an investment advisory publication.

Gold has been "underpinned" by three key factors: geopolitics, massive deficits, and a weakening U.S. dollar, he said. "All three are likely to remain in their same mode, if notactually become more prevalent."

All in all, the gold and mining equity investors "are simply relieved that the election is behind us," said Brien Lundin, editor of Gold Newsletter.

"It has grown increasingly apparent that many of the fundamental trends helping to drive gold higher -- including a falling dollar and rising commodity prices -- had been held barely in check by the administration as the election drew near," he said.

The Bush administration's "ability to hold things together was fading and, now that the election is over, they have much less motivation to even try," he said.

-----(see url for access to full news, 24-hr international newswire)----
Sundeck
(11/03/2004; 17:03:10 MDT - Msg ID: 126046)
US dollar still dropping....when will Yen run to the rescue?
http://fx.sauder.ubc.ca/cgi/fxplot?b=USD&c=JPY&rd=731&fd=1&fm=1&fy=2003&ld=31&lm=12&ly=2004&y=daily&q=volume&f=png&a=lin&m=0&x=I guess the Euro is taking the brunt of the present USDX slide, but look at where the Yen is versus the US$ (see link) only a little above the point earlier this year where the Japan Ministry of Finance asked their buddies over at the BOJ to fire up the printing presses and buy dollars for all they were worth. Japan's MOF have already said they will do the same again...when will it start??? What will Trichet do...how much pain can the Euro take? Will gold penetrate the $430 barrier convincingly this time? Where is Batman? (Does he have a Y or an E instead of a Bat on his cloak?)

Don't miss the next exciting episode....

;-)
Druid
(11/03/2004; 19:11:01 MDT - Msg ID: 126047)
China to develop Iran oil field
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/3970855.stmSnip.

"China has signed an agreement to buy oil and gas from Iran and to develop Iran's Yadavaran oil field, according to state media from both countries.
The deal was signed in Beijing by Iranian oil minister Bijan Zanganeh and Ma Kai, head of China's National Development and Reform Commission.

China, which has longstanding ties with Iran, is searching for new energy reserves to drive its booming economy.

The agreement will be carried out by Chinese oil company Sinopec."

Druid: More signs along the trail. Iran foraging some interesting business relationships these days.
Cometose
(11/03/2004; 19:50:28 MDT - Msg ID: 126048)
Druid/ China Iran Accord
I just posted the following on the other board....when I saw Druid's China Iran post.......I had to add this post here...

Cometose (Cheney: Bushes Mandate ......) ID#139261:

( background : sound of heavy panting as in EXCITED DOG; try to imagine dooling )

To unveil warplan for the next four years .......
Invasion of Iran ( June 2005 ) .....protective occupation of Saudi Arabia....

Increased garnering of CONSTITUTIONAL LIBERTIES addressed in Constitution...

MORE ; UNBRIDLED SPENDING........

( Earlier I misestimated the power of the Democrats to garner support of the CONSERVATIVE REPUBLICAN PARTY ...and have just been informed of the DEMOCRATIC SWING TO THE REPUBLICAN PARTY based on RECKLASS OUT OF CONTROL SPENDING ONLY; Last night was the night of the living dead ...in which DEMOCRATS nationwide blindly and unconcionably voted .....for a POLITICAL UFO ....that has looked and smelled and felt for too long like a SPENDAHOLIC Democrat: clearly a case of mistaken identity wherein the MYOPIC nurser couldn't identify the owner of the HIND TIT offered for a free suck.

Sundeck
(11/03/2004; 19:50:47 MDT - Msg ID: 126049)
@Druid #126047 - India too....
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/3978211.stmAhhh...yes, Sir Druid, India is there too, cementing in long term gas deals. I recall Japan recently did same (in the face of US opposition). Countries have no choice but to look after their own interests.

Perhaps it's a rush by Iran (to try to safeguard itself???) to set-up lots of deals with "allies". (Didn't do Saddam much good...but things may be different this time...)

Energy...it makes EVERYTHING happen.

;-)





goldquest
(11/03/2004; 19:54:38 MDT - Msg ID: 126050)
@Druid
Iran: Maybe buying a little protection from one of the big boys so some of the "other" big boys in the area will think twice before coming in and "liberating" Irans oil fields?
Druid
(11/03/2004; 21:50:39 MDT - Msg ID: 126051)
Debtor Economics and the Flow of Funds
http://www.chaos-onomics.com/Snip.

"It still strikes me funny whenever I research US capital inflows as one usually only does this type of research for emerging economies, or to wax less euphemistic, banana republics. Lewis Carroll and George Orwell would both have appreciated the irony of analyzing the required foreign financing of the economic superpower of the world. As world events go, it has been a very quick shift from manufacturer and financier of the world to the greatest importer and debtor. One of the key coincidental and I believe, in part, causal factors in this rapid transition, as Michael Klare argues in Blood and Oil: The Dangers and Consequences of America's Growing Petroleum Dependency (The American Empire Project), is the transition from US energy self sufficiency to US petroleum import dependency.

Admittedly, arguments to the effect that petroleum dependency is the Achilles' heel of the American economy and by extension America's role as issuer of the world's reserve currency, are not new. There is a vast difference between the abstract, at some point and under certain conditions petroleum dependency could be a problem and the effects of petroleum dependency are now eroding the value of the US$. Let's proceed from the abstract to the empirical and see if the "at some point" has become now."

@Sundeck, goldquest, Cometose


Druid: Lewis has done some excellent analyzing in suggesting that Japan might be taking a big part in financing the US' current attempt at democratizing Iraq in an attempt to obtain a flow of oil later on. This is very interesting in that I read somewhere a few weeks back that Japan either had struck a deal or was in talks with Iran about future oil needs.

Japan and many others are getting slammed by these oil prices at these levels and these prices haven't even begun to take on a lasting effect as we all know that everything that happens these days in our economy are "transitory".

Oil, the old/new inflation indicator.
Druid
(11/03/2004; 23:10:57 MDT - Msg ID: 126052)
The Real War
http://www.stevequayle.com/News.alert/04_Money/041102.the.real.war.htmlOctober 31, 2004
Author: Jim Sinclair

The real war is not in Iraq or Afghanistan but in the currency markets.

In his article "From Russia with Love," Community friend, Dan Norcini, set up the subject matter of what is the most important but unappreciated characteristic of the gold market.

This characteristic is misunderstood by many but forgotten by even more. The Gold Dinar is coming without any doubt now that two major foundational items, which had caused a delay, are falling into place,.


Druid: There is no doubt (at least in my small brain) that FreeGold (gold which price is set outside of Comex)is on the way sooner rather then later.

The Dinar, Euro, Yuan and yes, even Ruble, appear to be setting the stage for some serious competition against the Yen and Dollar. The competition for real money and wealth, oil and gold, is starting to gain a lot of momentum. My guess is that the re-elected administration will help speed matters up if they continue to pursue their present policies.

Although not quite up there with the notoriety of a Google or Starbucks, the great scramble for oil is underway and those "value" buyers who are holding TRILLIONS of vaporizing digits will be looking to point and click there way to secure real wealth in order to have a bargaining chip for real energy. Meanwhile, the speculating and growth players will be seeking the safety of government bonds for the safety of their perceived wealth only to be disappointed when the dust settles.
Topaz
(11/04/2004; 03:04:06 MDT - Msg ID: 126053)
Druid re Dinar.
We in the West are focused on faith in Money and accordingly our "controllers" deem it necessary to "hoard" real wealth in Bunkers (suceptible to pillage). Those of the Islamic mindset are driven by faith of the Heart and as such their controllers don't need to "hoard" real wealth.
On the contrary, they deem it far better to "spread the joy around" thus creating a "many with a little" untouchable hoard of collective wealth immune from wholesale pillage.
Makes sense methinks.
Truthcaster
(11/04/2004; 05:50:58 MDT - Msg ID: 126054)
US Dollar
Dollar is looking a little sick this morning 84.48 breaking
below 84.50 the Feds must still be having their morning cup of coffee..
Cometose
(11/04/2004; 06:43:16 MDT - Msg ID: 126055)
Launchpad
LIMIT UP !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Waverider
(11/04/2004; 07:17:47 MDT - Msg ID: 126056)
Spot 'n Spike
http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/en/detail/_pages/charts/main.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1Gandalf - what'd you feed the pooches?
Boilermaker
(11/04/2004; 07:22:10 MDT - Msg ID: 126057)
Post Election Reality
It would appear that the gold cabal has lost some of its zeal since the election. Four more years of capping gold doesn't look too appealing for those wishing to keep their wealth. Rats are bailing out.
Henri
(11/04/2004; 08:22:49 MDT - Msg ID: 126058)
Topaz/Druid
"faith in money" vs "money in faith"...hmmm

I know which I would choose.

Jump spot! See spot run!
Clink!
(11/04/2004; 08:25:17 MDT - Msg ID: 126059)
Well, what a surprise !
Spot capped in the first hour of trading, now running at the "de rigeur" $6 maximum rise. How tiresome .......
C!
Gandalf the White
(11/04/2004; 08:37:21 MDT - Msg ID: 126060)
Now, is the time for Goldhearts to SMILE ! <;-)
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=$GOLD,PLTB[PA][DA][F!3!!]⪯f=GAs many said last week --- AFTER the Election in the US of A, the MANIPULATION will not be needed and the POG will head back to its TRUE direction !
---
WELL, Spot and Spike are enjoying their new FREEDOM!!!!
<;-)
---
There SHOULD be a LITTLE GREEN "B" on the GOLD P&F Chart today, at the SAME LEVEL as the LITTLE RED "4", which is the TOP of the "Cup and Saucer" HANDLE --- !!!
YES, Lady Waverider -- You are correct --
GET READY FOR "BREAKOUT" ---
TO THE MOON, ALICE !!!
<;-)
Gandalf the White
(11/04/2004; 10:29:02 MDT - Msg ID: 126061)
TAA TAA TAAAAAAAAAAAAA, TAA TAA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ A "PRICE of GOLD" GUESSING CONTEST!! $$$$$$$$$$$$

We shall have a price guessing contest on the closing (Settlement price) of gold for the December Comex contract (GC4Z) on Monday, November 15, 2004, ---BUT all entries must be posted to the TableRound before Midnight on Wednesday, November 10th.

The POG Contest winner -- the closest price guess to the actual Settlement Price -- will receive a British Queen Victoria Sovereign (which may be seen at the following LINK)
http://www.usagold.com/gold/coins/BritVict.html

These coins were Minted between 1871 and 1901, are of a Fineness of 0.917, with an Actual Gold Content of 0.2354 troy ounce.

There will be also be two runners-up prizes for the next closest prognostications --- each winning an one ounce Canadian Silver Maple Leaf.
----

THE RULES -- (We MUST have RULES !!) --- PLEASE READ !!

1) The Winner is the poster with the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX (most active) December 2004 Gold Contract (GC4Z) on the date of Monday, November 15, 2004.

3) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $444.4)

4) "Guesses" shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT BOX location AND enclosed in markers of "Dollar Signs" so as to be OFFICIAL !
(Such as $$$$$$444.4 $$$$$$$ )

5) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".

6) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes MIDNIGHT (24:00) on Wednesday, November 10, 2004.

7) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY (as this part MUST accompany the Price prognostication)
--- In order for your entry to be valid, entries will need to have a paragraph or more discussing;
"Where gold is going and why". <===== NOTE !!!
---
LET the CONTEST begin !
<;-)



TownCrier
(11/04/2004; 10:56:03 MDT - Msg ID: 126062)
Fed adds $14.5 billion temporary cash reserves to banking system
Today $6.5 billion was added via overnight repos priced near the FOMC target rate, and in a reasonable signal that the Committee may raise rates 25 basis points next week, the Fed also had an $8 billion dollar round of 14-day repurchase agreements, priced near the midpoint, 1.879 percent.

The unique condition of the yen notwithstanding, the world's base numeraire and reserve currency should by most accounts enjoy the lowest interest rate as a signal of its strength against all other currencies, whose various higher rates are merely an indication of their expected forward weaknesses against the standard currency of account.

Next week, however, the dollar rate shall very likely rise even with the euro rate which has held steady at 2% for a year and a half now as some analysts predict no change through to the latter half of 2005 as its real forward strength against the dollar is helping to offset the inflationary effect of rising oil ($)prices.

This is the face of the new standard. However, the Fed now must look to raise the dollar interest rate to par and beyond, (albeit as slowly as possible) for the same reason that weak banana republic currency rates rise.

Don't let the media spellbind you into thinking a higher interest rate is a sign of a stronger currency. It merely signals the greater compensation for forward depreciation against the (new) international standard. As a tool to aid your further thoughts, think gold as that strongest standard, with a "free gold" interest rate of zero percent -- undisputable king of them all.

Stake your claim today.

R.
Zhisheng
(11/04/2004; 10:56:06 MDT - Msg ID: 126063)
$$444.4$$
Gold is headed up because of the inherent (and increasingly perceived) weakness of the dollar, due to the incredible debt in the US at nearly all levels: Federal, State, personal, implied (Social Security and Medicare), and hidden (through illegal accounting on the corporate level and legal but uncandid accounting on the Federal level). And due to the inevitability of the increase of that debt through increasing trade deficits, war expenditures, and social expenditures resulting from growing indigency among the population coming from loss of manufacturing and other good paying jobs.
TownCrier
(11/04/2004; 11:13:32 MDT - Msg ID: 126064)
Seeing is believing
http://www.usagold.com/gold-price.htmlAs gold may have reached the lower comfort zone of its euro trading range followed by a vault higher which was mimicked in the troubled dollar, it is not difficult to understand that can and should naturally rise in terms of all national currencies facing their own rates of depreciation. Not to mention gold experiencing a one-off, readjustment upward to make up ground for the decades it lay lost and tied in the dollar's shadow.

R.
TownCrier
(11/04/2004; 11:26:04 MDT - Msg ID: 126065)
NY gold rises to approach 16-year peak as dollar drops
http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh68272_2004-11-04_16-31-53_n04403004_newsmlNEW YORK, Nov 4 (Reuters) - COMEX gold futures rose sharply Thursday morning as a plunging dollar after the U.S. presidential election sparked fund buying and renewed global interest in the safe-haven metal.

The morning's peak represented the highest price for active futures since July 1988, according to Reuters charts.

Gold, often seen as a safeguard in financial markets in turbulent times, rose as traders sold the dollar on worries over the country's widening current account deficit....

A weak dollar tends to make gold more affordable for non-U.S. buyers.

The dollar came within a hair of a record low against the euro. Midmorning in New York, the euro rose to $1.2871...

"Fundamentally, the euro was strong under the Bush administration and the dollar was weak, and should still be," said one bullion trader.

-----(from url)-----

Call USAGOLD-Centennial today and discuss a diversification strategy that's right for you. Try as you might, you simply will not beat the advice and coin prices anywhere. The call is FREE and the help is always warm and friendly.

1-800-869-5115 Ext. 100

R.
Boilermaker
(11/04/2004; 11:49:20 MDT - Msg ID: 126066)
First rat leaving the ship
http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh70846_2004-11-04_18-35-14_n03196307_newsmlsnip
WASHINGTON,, Nov 4 (Reuters) - Dallas Federal Reserve President Robert McTeer, the Fed's resident poet and self-proclaimed "lonesome dove", has quit to take up the top job at the Texas A&M University System, the bank said on Thursday.

Gandalf the White
(11/04/2004; 12:24:08 MDT - Msg ID: 126067)
TODAY's -----"KING of the HILL" -----report ! <;-)
COMEX December '04 Gold Contract (GCZ04)
Open = $429.3 HIGH = $434.0 low = $420.3
SETTLEMENT = $430.8 CHANGE +$5.4
===
AND the "KING of the HILL" today is:
Sir Zhisheng $$$$ $444.4 $$$$
(11/4/04; 10:56:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 126063)
---
The Hobbits wonder just where he got that number !
<;-)

Gandalf the White
(11/04/2004; 12:37:14 MDT - Msg ID: 126068)
Also -- the "Cloud" lining report ! <;-)
Silver Dec '04 (SIZ4) COMEX Contract
Open $7.150 HIGH $7.490 low $7.150
SETTLEMENT $7.383 Change +$0.225
===
HI HO SILVER, AWAY !
Get that "MUD" smooth, Rich !
<;-)
Federal_Reserves
(11/04/2004; 13:22:56 MDT - Msg ID: 126069)
Retail sales (Rich Man/Poor Man)
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=580&e=3&u=/nm/20041104/bs_nm/retail_sales_dcRich folks living high on the hog, poor folk not so. The gap between rich and poor continues to grow. Retail sales reflect the picture.
Druid
(11/04/2004; 13:33:11 MDT - Msg ID: 126070)
Interesting Day...

Druid: Wow! Dow 36,000 is on it's way with $10 dollar bottled water.
Cometose
(11/04/2004; 15:42:04 MDT - Msg ID: 126071)
Hullabaloo at the Market Indexes!!!!
I haven't read or tuned in but I would like to know if anyone knows if there was a piece of news that spurred this rally ...........in the Nas , Dow and SP... or perhaps irrational exhuberance......

Did Peace break out in the MID EAST or ...?\\

Is it the Presidents plan to do away with the IRS and
Privatize Social Security.......

Now the harder part of my inquiry which relates to the Stock Market Valuation........

ALL THINGS DO NOT REMAIN CONSTANT BUT IF THEY DID .....
and we just simply dropped the value of the Dollar by half........, wouldn't the companies be worth twice as much .......?????????? No perhaps not because their earnings are going to drop ........unless they double their NET INCOME at the bottom line........

COuld the PPT arbitrarily buy up these companies anyway , while the dollar is falling to mask the BULL MARKET ON THE WAY IN THE PRECIOUS METALS MARKETS???????....and the MINING STOCKS?????

TODAY's rally in the markets , especially the SP looks ridiculous........because we live in a contracting economy .....at a time when there is not capital investment happening by the companies themselves.....and
Insiders are selling shares in record numbers......

Looks like the same old PUMP AND DUMP to me........but if either of those other INDEXES break out ........I'm going to begin to get concerned...

I'm going to be suprised if this rally continues past tomorrow.........


Maybe uncle sammy leased all the companies represented on these indexes .....their remaining gold so they can all rise with the gold tide......

Something tells me the evidence presenting itself is temporary....

I just don't see that anything has changed substantively since the election to overturn the trend of the last 9 months of lower highs and lower lows....

I can't imagine anyone being excited enough to go on a buying spree....

Unless they are trading on inside information and GOVERNMENT PLANNED .....PROSPERITY AND PRODUCTIVITY MIRACLE .....being brewed up in ALAN GREENSPAN'S
kitchen ..........based on HEDONICS (Pleasure).
USAGOLD Daily Market Report
(11/04/2004; 16:06:07 MDT - Msg ID: 126072)
Page Update!
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Daily Gold Market Report has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.

---- closing market excerpts----

Comex gold futures charged to seven-month highs and secured a contract-high close Thursday, as renewed weakness in the U.S. dollar coupled with a brightening technical, or chart, pattern rekindled speculative and investor interest.

The most-active December contract settled $5.40 higher at $430.80.

The U.S. currency dropped to nine-year lows on the U.S. Dollar Index as selling pressure resumed now that the 2004 presidential election is finished and another four years of the Bush administration is secured.

This steered investors and speculators toward dollar alternatives and safe havens such as gold, and helped spot prices pop to $433.25 an ounce, their highest level since 1988.

A bullish chart pattern also proved helpful as prices eroded congested resistance areas in the $432-$433 region to bring into view overhead targets such as the $440 and psychologically significant $450 mark.

"The dollar looks bad and gold is technically appealing, so there's definitely a bullish feel to this market at the moment," said Bernard Hunter, a director at Scotia Mocatta in Toronto. "We could certainly see more funds coming into this market and we have our eye on big numbers overhead like $440 and $450," he added.

------(see url for access to full news, 24-hr newswire)-----
DryWasher
(11/04/2004; 16:07:24 MDT - Msg ID: 126073)
$$$$$$ 131.0 $$$$$$

"Where gold is going and why"

As I see it, short term moves in the price of Gold are really not at all predictable, and my above guess really is nothing more than a total guess.

Over the long term I do feel confident the dollar price of Gold will continue to rise, although by exactly how much and when is also not predictable in my opinion. As I see it, two fundamental factors will be responsible for the continued rise in the dollar Gold price.

First is the cold hard fact that the dollar is going to continue to loose purchasing power. I think everyone can understand that we can expect the dollar price of Gold to rise, along with the dollar price of almost everything else of real value, such as food, land, etc. simply due to loss of the dollar's real value. This is why holding physical Gold is protection against inflation.

Second I expect the perceived value of Gold, relative to most other things of real value, to increase as the people of the world continue to loose faith in the United States in general, and the dollar in particular. As wealth is moved from holding dollars to holding "something else" a part of that "something else" will be Gold which will result in an increase of the dollar Gold price above and beyond the inflation rate.

It is the above second factor that is most unpredictable, and in my opinion, will be the most important in the long run. If the wild deficit spending, and borrowing, continues then the United States just might get it's credit card pulled and the dollar price of Gold could indeed go to the moon.

Only time will tell, but if one buys and holds physical Gold for the long term, one should sleep soundly in my opinion.

DryWasher
DryWasher
(11/04/2004; 16:13:18 MDT - Msg ID: 126074)
$$$$$$ 431.0 $$$$$$
Make that $431.0 rather than 131.0 please.

Thanks.
DryWasher.
Topaz
(11/04/2004; 16:13:52 MDT - Msg ID: 126075)
$$$426.5$$$
http://www.futuresource.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=GC&o=100/DX&a=D&z=610x300&d=LOW&b=LINE&st=Gold (the Price) has dipped below the alt Currency line as it's done it's job (of lowering DX) for the present. The recent Fed hikes have successfully bulwarked a flight to Cash and DoW15000 by Q4 (Mar05) looks a no-brainer ...UNLESS of course, they rejig the System!
TownCrier
(11/04/2004; 16:28:00 MDT - Msg ID: 126076)
Sorry for the delayed market report...
http://www.borsaitalia.it/fwa-cgi-bin/news.pl?id=1099605305nL04345693&tit=UPDATE%201-Germany%20slams%20gameplan%20for%20leapfrogging%20US%20economy&type=internazionali&ling=ENAn overzealous construction worker with a masonry saw cut through my main powerline. Although sparks and ozone filled the air, fortunately both man and saw came away uninjured -- if not entirely undaunted. Three hours and two electricians later the power has been restored.

Meanwhile...

HEADLINE: Germany slams gameplan for leapfrogging US economy

BRUSSELS, Nov 4 (Reuters) - German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder on Thursday slammed proposals to name and shame European countries that lag on economic reforms aimed at giving he EU the world's most competitive economy by 2010.

...he told the leaders that no government could be expected to sacrifice itself to meet unpopular EU targets.

Schroeder was equally damning about some of the ideas for kick starting reform tabled by a team of advisers led by former Dutch Prime Minister Wim Kok.

"You have to be realistic -- nobody at this table can accept targets from Brussels that lead to political suicide because there is no chance of implementation," Schroeder said, according to a government source.

That was a foretaste of the resistance the next president of the European Commission, Jose Manuel Barroso, is likely to face in his drive to get reforms back on track.

"We all know how difficult selling painful reforms can be -- but delay does not make those reforms easier," Barroso said.

...Romano Prodi, sounded more cynical after five years at the head of the EU executive.

He took as damning a view of league tables as Schroeder but said the answer was to give more power to Brussels. "The Lisbon process has demonstrated that when the Commission has power we make progress. When it does not have power and things are left to the goodwill of member states, there is no progress," Prodi told reporters.

He said the Commission had to have more teeth: "Otherwise we would be better off playing golf."

While the EU may have a common economic goal, its members were not above finger-pointing about stalled reforms.

"Compared with reforms in the old EU members, changes in the new member states are being carried out at the speed of light. In fact it is a reform frenzy compared with what is going on in the old member states," said Polish Prime Minister Marek Belka, whose country joined the EU in May along with nine others.

----(from url)----

Demand for gold wealth increases with general economic prosperity. Also, demand for solid gold wealth increases when economic conditions turn dicey.

For all economic occasions, choose gold. (Makes a handy gift, too. Be sure to add a stack of tenth ounce Maple Leaves to your next order, just in time for the holidays.)

R.
TownCrier
(11/04/2004; 17:31:23 MDT - Msg ID: 126077)
"History in the making": ECB President Trichet indicates Europe is wihout "role model" -- is not merely walking in Federal Reserve footsteps.
http://www.ecb.int/press/pressconf/2004/html/is041104.en.htmlFrom today's press conference on behalf of today's meeting of the governing council. When asked to reflect upon his first year on the job:

"... the Eurosystem... Delivering the currency for 306 million people, even more than in the United States, is quite a responsibility.

"And, since we have no role model, we do that in a way which has never been done before: with the ECB, the national central banks -- the full body of the team -- deciding on monetary policy here and then implementing it in the various economies. All this is extremely challenging.

"Also, the fact that we have more than 25 nationalities in this institution, where cross-fertilisation is of the essence, is something which is also very striking.

"This is history in the making: the fact that we are 12 countries today, but we know in advance that we will be many more tomorrow; the fact that we started European integration with six but now are 25.

"The lesson I draw from all that is that history moves faster, much faster than we think. We negotiated and worded the Maastricht Treaty when we were 12. The idea that we would have to implement it with 25 or 28, or even more, was not at all in our minds. We underestimated the rapidity of the historical changes.

"And I know now that the worst thing to do is to underestimate the rapidity of historical changes. You are in an institution where history is in the making. And that is, of course, very, very impressive."

-----(Q&A transcript at url)-----

R.
TownCrier
(11/04/2004; 17:58:54 MDT - Msg ID: 126078)
A lesson in modern financial problem solving
Trichet also offered the following in response to another question.

"We have the capacity to decide in real time. When we had the dramatic events of 9/11 in the United States, we were able that very afternoon to decide that we would pour extremely high levels of liquidity into the market in Europe to avoid a crisis. And we also decided to embark on a swap of 50 billion dollars with the Federal Reserve System in order to be able to deliver dollars in Europe to cope with possible problems of counterparties in New York. That was done in real time, on the very afternoon of the Twin Towers� collapse."

I mention it because it is instructive in regard to assessing the dynamic of the bullion banking system as a parallel to the traditional commercial banking systems. A counterparty crisis in paper obligations can often be papered over by the exceptional provision of additional paper liquidity as seen here.

Have you noticed, for example, that the open interest volume in "gold" on the New York Mecantile Exchange now stands over 300,000 contracts? Clearly, it is a market of counterparty obligations moreso than a market of physical substance and therefore can more easily be papered over in times of crisis to obscure and bridge underlying hiccups.

If accute settlement problems can be faded under a mound of liquidity as a temporary bridging tool ("fooling all people some of the time"), does it not also stand to reason that to a lesser extent underlying physical market realities could similarly be made "unfree" through a longer, ongoing process of inflating papery liqufaction of the market? That is, until such time as all confidence in the game is suddenly lost, at which time no additional amounts of paper can hide the grim truth of utter irreconcilable disconnection between counterparties.

R.
Druid
(11/04/2004; 18:52:30 MDT - Msg ID: 126079)
The Time Value Of Money
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/laird103104.html
"In recent times the exchange function of money has come to overwhelm the value function.

This disparity has been greatly enhanced by the historically significant proliferation and penetration of the IT industry. The result has been the the linking of information to money in the world economy. What this has done is to greatly increase the link of money to a time value component.

All money today (except metals) are associated with time components which encode the PARTICULAR TRANSACTIONS they are used for in that time period. This is the thesis of this paper.

The effect of this greatly increased time component of money and information encoding of money is a great deal of risk to the world economy. The world economy is greatly dependent on the TIMELY settlement of not only money transactions but of the associated information. This is particularly illustrated by the amazing penetration of just in time manufacturing world wide."

Druid: A mathematician's perspective on how our point and click capabilities and has widened the disconnect between between medium of exchange and store of value for what is perceived as money. Throw in an out of control monetary tribunal that comes up with such initiatives as helicopter money and you can really see the wide gulf between store of value and medium of exchange. The monetary officials will always be behind the curve if in the event....

If you must trade paper, do it with dollars that you can watch go puff in a matter of seconds because these integrated networks have a real downside to them. Get the real metal with just a little history for longevity.
Black Blade
(11/04/2004; 20:57:43 MDT - Msg ID: 126080)
Market Wrap Up - Hartman
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
Snippit:

The big issue moving forward will be higher government debt levels that need to be funded by savings from the rest of the world. "Bush is unambiguously bad for U.S. treasuries if he continues his policies," said John Richards, a strategist in Tokyo at Barclays Capital. "Heavy military spending policies and tax cuts at home becoming permanent mean a major expansion in the federal deficit." A second opinion came from Bill Gross of PIMCO when he commented, "We're looking at $400 billion plus (deficits) as far as the eye can see; that's a negative for the bond market." Our weakening economy and need for increased borrowing should work to lower the value of the dollar as foreign investors continue to shy away from U.S. assets. Capital inflows to the U.S. have been declining for seven months now. If the inflows continue to slow we got problems�if inflows ever become net outflows, the dollar could be wiped-out in short order.


Black Blade: The same old story as before. Meanwhile the equities markets are rising on false hopes and unreasonable expectations following a clear-cut election without the uncertainty of the last one. Even so - Gold soared as realists see the ballooning deficits and current deficits sink the USD. I had fun watching the mud-slinging and election results between the Massachussetts ketchup gigolo and the Texas oilman-cowboy (on a side note I voted for neither one). Interesting to see the division is so concentrated in "urban vs. rural" America. Still, take precautions as the euphoria wears off and the dollar tanks, holding Gold and Silver as a base for your portfolio is paramount in these uncertain times as we have had these growing deficits since the Eisenhower administration. The pyramid scheme is close to collapse as we rely on foreign borrowing of US debt. Remember - look out for "number one" and be prepared. Meanwhile the posted article is good reading.
Black Blade
(11/04/2004; 21:07:27 MDT - Msg ID: 126081)
Gold ends above $430 at 7-month high
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B115F90A7%2DFF86%2D4525%2DB11E%2DBE8954C77AB9%7D&siteid=mktw
SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Gold futures closed above $430 an ounce Thursday for the first time in seven months, with the dollar tapping new lows against its foreign rivals following President Bush's re-election.

The dollar fell to a nearly nine-month low against the euro and an eight-year low against the Swiss franc as worries about the United States' ability to finance its trade deficit resurfaced. See Currencies.

"With the U.S. presidential election out of the way and with no change at the top, the markets are once again focusing on the underlying trends, notably the potential for further dollar weakness," said William Adams, analyst at TheBullionDesk.com in London.

"With President Bush still at the helm, Middle East policy is expected to remain hawkish, and as such, high oil prices are likely to continue to be an issue," he said in a note to clients.

So "a combination of dollar weakness and potential for the weaker dollar and high oil prices to negatively impact economic growth is likely to support stronger gold prices," he said.

Gold for December delivery rose to a high of $434 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange before closing at $430.80, up $5.40 for the session. It marked the highest intraday and closing levels for futures since April 1, when the contract topped out at $436.50 and closed at $431.80.

Todd Hultman, president of Dailyfutures.com, a commodity information provider, pointed out that "while the dollar is dropping, the South African rand is increasing and that is discouraging mining activity in South Africa."

Keeping watch

Given the dollar weakness, "we would not be surprised if gold reached new highs over the coming days and weeks," said Frederic Panizzutti, a gold analyst at MKS Finance in Geneva. "The upside potential seems real." For now, the market will keep a close watch on the short-term movements in the dollar, he said. After gold futures topped the high from October, the next resistance level is "difficult to evaluate -- it is kind of long unexplored territory here and gold will likely trade erratically on its way up," he said. Renewed concern about instability in the Middle East also contributed to gold's strength, he added.


Black Blade: I still look at a "stagflation to inflation" scenario reminiscent of the 1970's-early 1980's. The Dollar has always been dropping and there are few places to run and hide. Precious metals are a good "insurance policy" and quite "cheap" as well despite temporay "giddiness" over an election and drop in WTI crude prices.

Waverider
(11/04/2004; 22:00:23 MDT - Msg ID: 126082)
YAHOOO.....Black Blade...
You're back!! You've been missed - please don't stay away for so long...USAGOLD forum is more important than gas drilling - yes? ;o) Cheers, and hope you're well!
Gandalf the White
(11/05/2004; 00:01:02 MDT - Msg ID: 126083)
TAA TAA TAAAAAAAAAAAAA, TAA TAA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ A "PRICE of GOLD" GUESSING CONTEST!! $$$$$$$$$$$$

We shall have a price guessing contest on the closing (Settlement price) of gold for the December Comex contract (GC4Z) on Monday, November 15, 2004, ---BUT all entries must be posted to the TableRound before Midnight on Wednesday, November 10th.

The POG Contest winner -- the closest price guess to the actual Settlement Price -- will receive a British Queen Victoria Sovereign (which may be seen at the following LINK)
http://www.usagold.com/gold/coins/BritVict.html

These coins were Minted between 1871 and 1901, are of a Fineness of 0.917, with an Actual Gold Content of 0.2354 troy ounce.

There will be also be two runners-up prizes for the next closest prognostications --- each winning an one ounce Canadian Silver Maple Leaf.
----

THE RULES -- (We MUST have RULES !!) --- PLEASE READ !!

1) The Winner is the poster with the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX (most active) December 2004 Gold Contract (GC4Z) on the date of Monday, November 15, 2004.

3) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $444.4)

4) "Guesses" shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT BOX location AND enclosed in markers of "Dollar Signs" so as to be OFFICIAL !
(Such as $$$$$$444.4 $$$$$$$ )

5) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".

6) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes MIDNIGHT (24:00) on Wednesday, November 10, 2004.

7) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY (as this part MUST accompany the Price prognostication)
--- In order for your entry to be valid, entries will need to have a paragraph or more discussing;
"Where gold is going and why". <===== NOTE !!!
---

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ THE "PRICE of GOLD" GUESSING CONTEST!! $$$$$$$$$$$$

Entries as of FRIDAY 11/5/04 at just about 00:01 Denver time !!!

OFFICIAL ENTRY LISTING

Listed in order of decreasing values !
----

$$$$ $444.4 $$$$ Zhisheng (11/4/04; 10:56:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 126063)

$$$$ $431.0 $$$$ DryWasher (11/4/04; 16:13:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 126074

$$$$ $426.5 $$$$ Topaz (11/4/04; 16:13:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 126075)

===
LET the CONTEST continue !
<;-)
Zhisheng
(11/05/2004; 07:40:56 MDT - Msg ID: 126085)
Fear.
Not quite sure Gandalf (and Hobbits), why all the 4's in my guess. Perhaps because those little guys are on my mind and the Hobbits are subjects of 4 of Tolkien's books?
More likely though because 4 is pronounced "fear" in German, and the gold shorts must be radiating this emotion in prodigious quantities these days.
Rustee
(11/05/2004; 09:02:49 MDT - Msg ID: 126086)
$$$$439.60$$$$
It appears that the US Government is serious about allowing the $ to drop as a way to stimulate domestic manufacturing. As long as $ drops, gold goes up. I kind of feel sorry for those folks who have not hedged their investments. Regards, R
Gandalf the White
(11/05/2004; 09:18:04 MDT - Msg ID: 126087)
WOWSERS !!! Take a look at the BIG FIGHT !!!
http://charts-d.quote.com:443/1002980432830?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=DX00Y∬erval=10&Ht=600&Wd=800&Display=2&Study=MA&Param1=13&Param2=0&Param3=&FontSize=10The US$ chart should be telling everyone SOMETHING !
We GOLDHEARTS know what it is saying, BUT most all are still in the DARK (ages) !
GET YELLOW while it is STILL VERY CHEAP !
GW
Gandalf the White
(11/05/2004; 09:46:11 MDT - Msg ID: 126088)
Looks as if the COMEX "Bookies" have been "HAD" !
http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/en/detail/_pages/charts/main_large.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1Jump, Jump, JUMP, Spot and SPIKE !
<;-)
The Knife
(11/05/2004; 10:03:05 MDT - Msg ID: 126089)
$$$$$$422.26
Gold markets will continue to gain wider acceptance between central banks, investors, and increased mine production. Gains will be modest over time until the Chinese market fully matures in a number of years. Gold will continue to be a superior store of value while other investment choices will show weakness.
The Knife
(11/05/2004; 10:05:33 MDT - Msg ID: 126090)
$$$$$$422.26$$$$$$
Just to make it official.
Gandalf the White
(11/05/2004; 10:08:05 MDT - Msg ID: 126091)
Thanks Sir The Knife --- The Hobbits have loaned you four cents!!
The Knife (11/5/04; 10:03:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 126089)
$$$$$$422.26
===
WELCOME also, and NOW you meet RULE #3 !
Note that we still do not have a Rule #2.
<;-)
servantHeart
(11/05/2004; 10:26:43 MDT - Msg ID: 126092)
$$$$431.65$$$$
The US Government continues to print greenbacks with reckless abandon, and it doesn't seem to matter which major political party is in charge. Money in this country is backed by the good faith and trust of the U.S. Government/Federal Reserve. It appears that this faith and trust is diminishing here and around the world. Therefore, gold will at least go up relative to the US dollar since it continues to be a solid form of currency since time began. Might as well trade something of diminishing value with something of increasing value. SH
Mr Gresham
(11/05/2004; 10:39:00 MDT - Msg ID: 126093)
Sir LimitUp
Forgive me for the late conveyance of this message to you, but our Noble Wizard's dizzying charts have jarred my aging and clouded memory.

Long ago, our King charged me to bid you ready SEVERAL fine steeds, in wait along the golden road through our Kingdom, for your historic ride. There may be no rest at hand, neither by night nor by day, for many a golden fortnight, once you have commenced...
Gandalf the White
(11/05/2004; 10:39:42 MDT - Msg ID: 126094)
WELCOME Sir ServantHeart !
servantHeart (11/5/04; 10:26:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 126092)
$$$$431.65$$$$
===
The Hobbits have taken your NICKEL to make your entry meet the RULE #3 requirement !
<;-)
Gandalf the White
(11/05/2004; 10:54:56 MDT - Msg ID: 126095)
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ THE "PRICE of GOLD" GUESSING CONTEST!! $$$$$$$$$$$$
TAA TAA TAAAAAAAAAAAAA, TAA TAA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !


Entries as of FRIDAY 11/5/04 at just about 11:00 Denver time !!!

OFFICIAL ENTRY LISTING

Listed in order of decreasing values !
----

$$$$ $444.4 $$$$ Zhisheng (11/4/04; 10:56:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 126063)

$$$$ $439.6 $$$$ Rustee (11/5/04; 09:02:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 126086)

$$$$ $431.6 $$$$ servantHeart (11/5/04; 10:26:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 126092)

$$$$ $431.0 $$$$ DryWasher (11/4/04; 16:13:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 126074

$$$$ $426.5 $$$$ Topaz (11/4/04; 16:13:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 126075)

$$$$ $422.3 $$$$ The Knife (11/5/04; 10:03:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 126089)

===
<;-)
PS: Does anyone see that the majority of entries are "UNDERWATER" ?
Gene
(11/05/2004; 11:03:30 MDT - Msg ID: 126096)
Gold contest
$$$$$$456.50$$$$$$
It has to have been obvious to anyone with eyes in his/her head that PMs must go up & the dollar down.Our only way out of this trade deficit mess is thru dollar devaluation.
Clinton & Rubin got us into this predicament with NAFTA & their strong dollar policy.Hopefully GW can get us out without too much interference from the Fed.
TownCrier
(11/05/2004; 12:02:17 MDT - Msg ID: 126097)
The bottom line
http://www.usagold.com/gold-price.htmlWith an eye to trading ranges, gold has plenty of upward room to maneuver in terms of the euro which would not necessarily be viewed as 'overbought' by fair-minded marketeers nor as 'excessive volatility and disorderly movements' by the ECB itself in regards to operational monetary policy.

Regarding gold's room to maneuver in terms of the dollar, frankly, there is no immediate practical limitation to the upside.

Acquire your coins, confidently get on with the business of life, and acquire more as your situation and understanding of the day allows.

A toll free call to USAGOLD-Centennial makes for an AUspicously good start with excellent advice and prices on coins and bars. 1-800-869-5115

R.
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(11/05/2004; 12:08:23 MDT - Msg ID: 126098)
The Fruit of Your Labor: another day, another... shrinking dollar?
http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.html

Swiss gold francs

Harvest Time
Whatever it is that you may have sown,
we'll give you the power to reap GOLD.

1-800-869-5115
USAGOLD-Centennial has over three decades of experience in the field!

mikal
(11/05/2004; 13:35:14 MDT - Msg ID: 126099)
$$$$$451.60$$$$
Why this? First of all, the momentum must step-up again sometime soon.
As TC just observed, for the umpteenth time, God bless him: "Regarding gold's room to maneuver in terms of the dollar, frankly, there is no immediate practical limitation to the upside." Well put!
In deference to past gold launch aborts though, I believe this generation "rocket" or "escape vehicle" model is engineereed with proven, state of the art, fail-safe mechanisms to gently step-up thrust in stages. Outfitted with sophisticated real-time, market feedback sensors to
A) compensate for crosswinds
B) avoid destructive resonant vibrations and
C) generally ensure a safe, comfortable ride for all passengers.


TownCrier
(11/05/2004; 13:48:58 MDT - Msg ID: 126100)
Stylings, will, and management. The trend is your friend.
http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh90824_2004-11-05_19-57-48_l05693294_newsmlHEADLINE: Only a fast euro rise to $1.35 seen spurring ECB

FRANKFURT, Nov 5 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank has little appetite for halting the euro's climb against the dollar just yet and only very rapid moves toward $1.35 are likely to spur some action, analysts said.

ECB policymakers keep saying it is the speed of currency moves that matters, not levels.

"The ECB is not unhappy with the stronger euro," said UBS analyst Holger Fahrinkrug.

Since the United States' huge current account deficit and inflexible currencies in Asia are the driving forces, there is only so much verbal or actual intervention the ECB can deliver to halt the euro's climb against a fast-weakening dollar.

With Federal Reserve officials focusing on dollar weakness and the Bank of Japan caught up with domestic problems, market analysts doubt the Europe will get help to stem the rise.

"This leaves the ECB alone. It will need a measure of courage for them to intervene alone," although they may well have to, said Morgan Stanley currency strategist Stephen Jen.

One euro zone national central bank official said the ECB Governing Council is aware of this dilemma.

For these reasons, analysts and fund managers say they expect it will take a fast break well through $1.30 before the ECB would act, even verbally.

It took a 14 percent advance between Nov. 1, 2003 and Jan. 12, 2004 before ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said "brutal moves were not welcome." This time around such talking down of the currency hasn't even begun.

...At his press conference on Thursday, Trichet merely repeated the Group of Seven finance ministers' statements of this year that excess volatility and disorderly movements in the foreign exchange market are undesirable.

-----(see url for full article)----

As explained more fully in a post October 13th, as a politically acceptible (outside the U.S.) alternative for letting "hot money" put disruptive upward pressure on a regional or national currency, excessive flows can be naturally shunted into gold. Unique among international reserve assets, Mother Nature will not complain about the rising exchange rate for gold causing any harm to her export sector or any form of unemployment among her furry-footed or feathered citizens.

Among all international reserve assets, gold is the one natural choice. We are moving in that direction, and all will arrive at that party, some sooner (and thus more cheaply) than others.

R.
Lothar of the Hill People
(11/05/2004; 14:19:39 MDT - Msg ID: 126101)
$$$ 450.0 $$$
Now that the election is over and the President is no longer encumbered with the need to work towards re-election, he will be free to push his agenda to the fullest extent. Each element of his agenda costs more $$. If his tax code simplifications are revenue neutral as he as promised, his only plan for the additional revenues is for it to come from a rising economy. Even if the economy does improve, Lothar doesn't see the numbers adding up in the near term. More debt will come long before the economy improves enought to offset the cost of his agenda.

I am Lothar, of the Hill People.
USAGOLD Daily Market Report
(11/05/2004; 14:27:59 MDT - Msg ID: 126102)
Page Update!
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Daily Gold Market Report has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.

---closing market excerpts----

Gold futures rose nearly 1 percent Friday, climbing above $434 an ounce to mark the metal's highest closing contract price in nearly 16 years.

Comex December gold climbed $3.50 to close at $434.30.

At 337,000, October's growth in nonfarm payrolls was the largest monthly gain since March, according to the Labor Department's data. Initially, the news sent December gold to a low of $425.50. Many traders assumed the data would make it more likely that the Fed will agree to raise interest rates at Wednesday's FOMC meeting, said John Person, president of National Futures Advisory Service.

The dollar gave back all of its post-U.S. payrolls report gain to trade marginally lower against the euro and the Japanese yen on Friday.

"With deficit spending, turmoil in the Middle East, geopolitical pressures, and ongoing threats from terrorism plus the uncertainty over inflationary pressures going into 2005, physical assets such as gold will continue to be a favorite addition to investors' portfolios,"Person said.

...The dollar's subsequent sharp descent was indeed the main source of uplift for gold through the day, but a brightening technical or chart pattern also enticed buying interest as congested resistance levels in the $432-433 region were eroded to bring major upside targets such as $440 and $450 into view.

Should the U.S. dollar remain under pressure and plumb new lows over the coming days, more upside stretches in gold are expected.

The $450 level is the major goal to the upside for both December futures and spot gold, dealers argued.

"We're looking in great shape here. To end the week this firmly and with the dollar so weak is a sign that we're not finished yet. We could easily see $450 early next week if things stay on this course," argued a dealer with a precious metals refining and trading firm....

------(see url for access to full news, 24-hr international newswire, gold price charts)-----
Sprout
(11/05/2004; 15:19:14 MDT - Msg ID: 126103)
$$$$$ 575.20 $$$$$
Why?

Hmmm .....

I could just repeat what's already written within the halls of the Gold Trail cuss those seem to be the Real Reasons without the sideshows, but it'd take way to long to do that... And why repeat what's already been so well written?

But in all actuality, it appears that's WHY!

So can I get out it that easily by just saying, Read the "Gold Trail -Thoughts!" at the link on the top of the page?
Or do the Hobbits want my own, not nearly as bright, reasons? ;)



Great Albino Bat
(11/05/2004; 15:26:47 MDT - Msg ID: 126104)
Welcome back, Lothar!

Good to have you with us once again, at this mighty oaken table!

Long time no see.

The GAB
Smeagol
(11/05/2004; 17:15:33 MDT - Msg ID: 126105)
$$$$$ 441.7 $$$$$

Ssss! We hear the call of the Wizard's horn yet again... already?? My, precious, how time flies!! We musst guess, O yess, and perhaps we'll beat the resst! (cackle)

"Where gold is going and why".

It is going... to beat any currency sysstem in the long run,

It is going... to continue to be valued as Wealth no matter what policies or laws are raised for or against It,

It is going... to continue to be the object of many evil plots and deeds by the greedy, the unscrupulous and the ssmall-minded,

It is going... into the handses, lock-boxes, safes and pocketses of those ssmart ones that sees It's Wealth-reality through the nassty tricksy swamp-mist of paper
lie-promises,

It, the metal of the Yellow Face, is going... to have It's day in the Sun once again...

....because, precious, that's what It was designed for, and that's the way It is.

S.
Smeagol
(11/05/2004; 17:28:49 MDT - Msg ID: 126106)
"MTMT Flight 4979 now boarding"

"Good morning and welcome aboard MTM Transworld Flight 4979. My name is Aurelius Krand and I will be your captain on this flight, with the capable assistance of my co-pilot Cary Gold. We are taking on the last of our fuel and the maintenance checks are now complete."
[rrrrhhheeeeeeeeeeeeeeee...]
"We will be departing Greenback International Airport shortly. By the way, this is a special occasion as it will be our last flight out of GIA. At this time we have turned on the Fasten Seat Belts sign. Please fasten those seat belts now and stow any loose items in the compartments under your seats."
[...eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee...]
"The weather forecast calls for possible severe weather along our course, so we may run into a little turbulence from time to time and passengers may experience a little
nervousness and queasiness which is perfectly normal."
[...eeeeeeerrRRRRRRRRHHHHH...]
"This will be a somewhat long flight and it will take time to climb to our final cruising altitude, so we encourage you to relax and take in the ever changing scenery through
the view windows on our journey to Freegold World Skyport. Attendants will be available to tend your needs and serve food and drink once we are aloft. Thank you for choosing MTM Transworld."
[...HHHRRRROAAAARRRRRRRRR!!!!....]

"oohhhh!"

"Yeah, the takeoff vertigo is awesome, eh?... You look kinda worried. This your first time flying?"

"Yeah...well... no, at least, I've never flown on MTMT. How 'bout you?"

"Well, I travel a lot, and I've tried 'em all, but the first time I tried MTMT I never went back. Been using them exclusively for almost thirty years now."

"Reeeally..... I sure hope they're better than Dollar Air. I nearly died on one of their flights after the landing gear failed."

"Which one? The crash at Bretton Woods Municipal?"

"Yeah, that's the one, and my first flight. My second was years later, on Sky Stock, and not only were they not secure - they lost my luggage - they went belly-up the
next month. Seems everywhere you turn nowadays some airline is having major problems. It's no wonder I'm nervous about flying...."

"Ouch. Heh heh... well, I can guarantee you won't crash on this one. This airline is top-notch and has an untarnished record... didn't you notice there wasn't anyone doing the usual disaster orientation? You can rest easy. Just curious, how did you end up here?"

"A friend of mine who found this gold store on the Internet - 'USAGOLD'."

"Ah, yes... of course... so you got the news and some gold and a free bonus ticket on MTMT huh? And in time. Mind if I take a look?... hey, those Uruguay 5 Pesos are sweet, I don't have any of those... (grin) welcome to the goldenaire club!"

"Thanks. What about you, do you have any gold?"

"Flying on MTMT is free but you gotta have gold in possession to fly. I've a few 400 ounce bars, some kilos, a couple dozen tubes of various bullion stuff, some nice USA 20 dollar pieces, a mess of European mintages, 18k gold chain, rings, you know, things like that... way too much for a carryon, it's all down in the cargo hold."

"WOW....And you trust them with all that?!!"

"Ab'so,lutely. That's how they got their spotless reputation."

(sigh) "Well, I sure don't feel like a goldenaire. I don't have very much."

"That's the beauty of it - you don't have to! If you have any gold at all in your hands, you're a goldenaire. When we arrive at Freegold World Skyport you'll see what I
mean... hey, look outside, we're pretty high up already......

........you know, you got lucky."

"How so?"

"This is the last flight out of Greenback International Airport."

"I heard the pilot say something about that earlier... it was a one way ticket and I'll have to get another flight back. What about it?"

"Well, this is also the last MTMT flight. Period. There won't be any more. It's the end of one travel era, and the restoration of a timeless one."

"But how will I get back home?"

(grin) "Two words, my friend... In Style!"

-------

S.
otish mountain
(11/05/2004; 17:39:39 MDT - Msg ID: 126107)
musings......
I guess I was about 10 or 11 when we went on our annual summer holidays this time up the Cariboo. I remember us pulling into Hungry Herbies at Cache Creek after 6 hours of driving up through the Fraser Canyon.
The juke box was playing Johnny Cash's Ring of Fire and Johnny Horton's North to Alaska was played as well. These early memories were my first on my discovery of gold and the early history of the gold rushes that past thru that part of the land.
Aristotle
(11/05/2004; 17:56:24 MDT - Msg ID: 126108)
Two phrases, Smeagol
"Goldenaire" ------ an instant classic.

And when you come right down to it, you really nailed the landing.....

"In Style!"

It's all about setting a good example as member in good standing of the Goldenaire Club -- the least-exclusive club on earth with access to all the privileges mankind can offer.

From one "member" to another, well done!

Gold. Get you some. --- Ari
Aristotle
(11/05/2004; 18:04:54 MDT - Msg ID: 126109)
"Goldenaire"
Not to be confused with the "golden air" stuff that the RPowelish paper-peddlers try to pass off on everyong as if it were alchemisticly "Good as Gold."

Sorry boys, no privileges for you. The only parties not permitted in this most non-exclusive of clubs are counterparties.

Gold. Gets you in the door. --- Aristotle
Noble1
(11/05/2004; 18:23:44 MDT - Msg ID: 126110)
$$$$442.50$$$$

1) This time I'm using tea leaves. Imported from, where else, China. Boiled 'em, added a little "tonic", drank the brew, swirled 'em and read 'em. The answer is 442.50. (Hope I didn't take your spot again Sir Gandalf).

2) Although I've never been a follower of TA, one must consider the numbers of people that do subscribe. Today's 16 year high should be considered a major breakout and therefore be gold positive. The problem I have with TA is that they are very good at showing, with their charts, how their "system" so accurately predicted past events. They have a little more difficulty projecting it into the future. Kind of like drawing the target after taking the shot.

3) Triple deficits do matter. The world is watching and understands this.

4) This may prove to be most important as this long term trend has been the result of a major PTB policy shift. They work slowly and surely. Washington Agreement-1 and WG-2-----Central Banks may no longer stand ready to lease gold should the price rise!!!

5) Short-medium term. Although physical gold in personal possesion provides the ultimate security, there are many that would like to allocate funds from their retirement accounts into physical. Currently, this is only possible by establishing trust accounts to hold the physical. A process which many are unwilling to take. Soon, the World Gold Council's Exchange Traded Fund will begin trading on the NYSE. It will allow many waiting and anxious new investors into the demand for physical with available funds in their retirement accounts---Able to buy and sell in a way in which they are accustomed.
Given the amount of retirement funds available, the demand may prove to be overwhelming for the spot market and could provide the stimulus to delineate the difference between the paper and physical markets. As the price for physical goes up, retail dealers will be writhing to find supply and meet demand.

Wow! As I read back over #5, is this a short-medium term prediction? Yes, it is.

My prediction is---and I know I'm putting myself on the line. When the NYSE ETF begins trading, the CBs and BBs will colloberate to supply the market (via leasing---watch the rates go down) intending to discourage the initiative. If succesful, we're toast. However, if the demand begins to overwhelm them, they will begin to defer to their WG-2 Agreement to limit their commitment.

I've read tale of the failing bank that held steady 'till it's last dollar before closing and survived the day. WG-1 and WG-2 provide an increased transparancy into their gold assets, commitments, and intentions that we're not used to. Coming from CBs, I'd take them seriously.

Wish I could go on but the misses is calling me to go to dinner.

Will pick it up again soon.

Remember: Money may sometimes be paper, shells, etc., but gold will always be money.
Sundeck
(11/05/2004; 19:22:57 MDT - Msg ID: 126111)
@Noble1 Msg #126110 - To colloberate or not to colloberate...
Well done, Oh Noble1.

I love that new word:

"colloberate" - meaning when Central Banks and Bullion Banks "collaborate" to "clobber" the price of gold..

;-)
Gandalf the White
(11/05/2004; 20:47:58 MDT - Msg ID: 126112)
Response to Sir Sprout
Sprout (11/5/04; 15:19:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 126103)
---
The Hobbits say, "Ya done well, Sir Sprout !"
<;-)
LimitUp
(11/05/2004; 21:11:56 MDT - Msg ID: 126113)
Mr. Gresham
Been training for the event since '71....in top condition....with the King's horses I will ride to the top of Mt. Golden....on my honor Sir.
Gandalf the White
(11/05/2004; 21:17:33 MDT - Msg ID: 126114)
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ THE "PRICE of GOLD" GUESSING CONTEST!! $$$$$$$$$$$$

TAA TAA TAAAAAAAAAAAAA, TAA TAA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !

Entries as of FRIDAY 11/5/04 at just about 21:10 Denver time !!!

OFFICIAL ENTRY LISTING

Listed in order of decreasing values !
----

$$$$ $575.2 $$$$ Sprout (11/5/04; 15:19:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 126103)

$$$$ $456.5 $$$$ Gene (11/5/04; 11:03:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 126096)

$$$$ $451.6 $$$$ mikal (11/5/04; 13:35:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 126099)

$$$$ $450.0 $$$$ Lothar of the Hill People (11/5/04; 14:19:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 126101)

$$$$ $444.4 $$$$ Zhisheng (11/4/04; 10:56:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 126063)

$$$$ $442.5 $$$$ Noble1 (11/5/04; 18:23:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 126110)

$$$$ $441.7 $$$$ Smeagol (11/5/04; 17:15:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 126105)

$$$$ $439.6 $$$$ Rustee (11/5/04; 09:02:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 126086)

$$$$ $431.6 $$$$ servantHeart (11/5/04; 10:26:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 126092)

$$$$ $431.0 $$$$ DryWasher (11/4/04; 16:13:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 126074

$$$$ $426.5 $$$$ Topaz (11/4/04; 16:13:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 126075)

$$$$ $422.3 $$$$ The Knife (11/5/04; 10:03:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 126089)

===
<;-)

Gandalf the White
(11/05/2004; 21:27:22 MDT - Msg ID: 126115)
TODAY's -----"KING of the HILL" -----report ! <;-)

COMEX December '04 Gold Contract (GCZ04)
Open = $430.6 HIGH = $435.0 low = $425.5
SETTLEMENT = $434.3 CHANGE +$3.5
===
AND the "KING of the HILL" today is:
Sir ServantHeart (11/5/04; 10:26:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 126092)
$$$$ $431.6 $$$$
---
<;-)

Liberty Head
(11/05/2004; 21:37:17 MDT - Msg ID: 126116)
$$$$$$$$$438.9$$$$$$$$$$

With gold in hand the question is; Where are you going that you are not already there?

Gold has nowhere to go at all, because gold, like our Sun, is a center point. The dollar, like the Earth, is spinning and rotating in an orbit that will eventually collapse into a black hole.

Best Wishes
Gandalf the White
(11/06/2004; 00:12:34 MDT - Msg ID: 126117)
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ THE "PRICE of GOLD" GUESSING CONTEST!! $$$$$$$$$$$$

TAA TAA TAAAAAAAAAAAAA, TAA TAA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !

Entries as of SATURDAY 11/6/04 at just about 00:01 Denver time !!!

OFFICIAL ENTRY LISTING
Listed in order of decreasing values !
----

$$$$ $575.2 $$$$ Sprout (11/5/04; 15:19:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 126103)

$$$$ $456.5 $$$$ Gene (11/5/04; 11:03:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 126096)

$$$$ $451.6 $$$$ mikal (11/5/04; 13:35:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 126099)

$$$$ $450.0 $$$$ Lothar of the Hill People (11/5/04; 14:19:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 126101)

$$$$ $444.4 $$$$ Zhisheng (11/4/04; 10:56:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 126063)

$$$$ $442.5 $$$$ Noble1 (11/5/04; 18:23:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 126110)

$$$$ $441.7 $$$$ Smeagol (11/5/04; 17:15:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 126105)

$$$$ $439.6 $$$$ Rustee (11/5/04; 09:02:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 126086)

$$$$ $438.9 $$$$ Liberty Head (11/5/04; 21:37:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 126116)

$$$$ $431.6 $$$$ servantHeart (11/5/04; 10:26:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 126092)

$$$$ $431.0 $$$$ DryWasher (11/4/04; 16:13:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 126074

$$$$ $426.5 $$$$ Topaz (11/4/04; 16:13:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 126075)

$$$$ $422.3 $$$$ The Knife (11/5/04; 10:03:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 126089)
===
Lots of empty spaces in the range of prices !
BUT, don't wait tooooo long as the winning price will be taken by the COB on Monday ! (so says the Crystal Ball !)
<;-)

The Invisible Hand
(11/06/2004; 02:45:25 MDT - Msg ID: 126118)
$$$$8,752.00$$$$
The Invisible Hand (2/18/02; 01:46:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 70296)
Confirmation and discussion ****$ 8,752****
I do hereby confirm my guess of ****$ 8,752 ****
Discussion: Although in an earlier post of the last fortnight I said that A/TG predicted an upward surge of 50 bucks a day, I think it would be more precise to say that the gentlemen argue the unexpected move towards $ 30,000 can occur at anytime. It must thus start once. Why not within the 'time limit' of the contest?
==
"Where gold is going and why?" Gold is going to $ 30,000 because A/TG/FOA said so.
Sundeck
(11/06/2004; 04:20:19 MDT - Msg ID: 126119)
$$$$$$446.3$$$$$$
Where gold is going and why.

Where? Why, up of course ... a lot, in US-dollar terms.

Moby Dollar, the great greenback-whale is sounding, the harpoon in his flank and with Captain Bush "bonded" to it�down, down, down into the cold, dark depths. Ahabless sight! The Pequod ship-of-state is divided and sinking. Ishmael, (from the Hebrew word meaning "God hears"), the lone survivor, strikes out for the golden shore ... determined, perhaps, to leave "bondage" behind and become a "Goldenaire".

What does Fedallah prophesise for gold?
" $446.3 by Monday week!" booms he, his eyes rolling wildly in their sockets.
Good enow for Sundeck!

So be my say,
Four forty-six point thray,
For gold that day...

Yours Aye!

.............................


How to stop this? Impossible! For when the lemmings are running, only a cliff can stop them. I'm afraid Bobby Godsell will get "a good gold price", but sadly not "in a good world".

Now ... where did I put those 1-oz Kangas? Dang! They're around here somewhere... That does it! I have to go clean up my study ... or else buy a metal detector.

;-)

Sundeck

Caradoc
(11/06/2004; 04:35:49 MDT - Msg ID: 126120)
***$499.0***
I like Invisible Hand's logic; i.e., if it's going to happen someday, why not this month? Actually, I think the long-awaited rise toward numbers beyond $800 began a couple of weeks ago, but we'll see a period of 20-dollar increases and 27-dollar smash downs before we get to the 50-dollar moves. Since the timeframe of the contest is so small, I'm just picking a number in the upper end of the range.

Caradoc
Caradoc
(11/06/2004; 05:53:46 MDT - Msg ID: 126121)
Possible trigger
The Arafat situation gives us a possible "trigger" that could lead to 50-dollar moves sooner rather than later.

BACKGROUND: There are thousands of Palestinians (self-designated and otherwise) who have been working in Muslim countries around the world for the last few decades. Something that's not common knowledge is that -- in addition to whatever the particular country's tax practice may be -- all those paychecks have had 2% deducted and sent to the PLO. These trickles of money flowing out of individual paychecks have added up to rivers of money flowing out of various countries from northwest Africa all the way across to Malayasia. And these sums obviously haven't been spent on roads or hospitals or powerplants. Instead (in amounts estimated to total between 2 and 3 billion dollars), they've been deposited somewhere safe in accounts to which even Arafat's wife has no access.

CURRENT SITUATION: Certain decision-makers in the banking industry are reading about Arafat's health, thinking about huge deposits which are unlikely ever to be withdrawn, and pondering what to do with them. Whether for personal benefit or for the good of the institution, one strategy that must come to mind is to convert those deposits to real wealth.

OUTLOOK: Even if dribbled into the physical market a million or two at a time, adding these funds to existing demand over the next few months would be more than enough to serve as gold's "trigger."

Remember the pundits of late September and early October making noises about how gold would trade in the $395-to-$407 range during 2005? I expect that most of these fellows will have to raise their sights a notch or two, and their next expert prognostication will be something like "...massive resistance slightly above $500 which puts an upper limit on gold's temporary strength before returning to sub-$400 levels." Look for those assessments as we go past $450. They'll be as wrong then as they were a month ago.

There was a time a few years ago when US-held gold would have balanced our international commitments if priced at $1,642 per ounce. Those days are long gone, and there's little point in recalculating a formula with one variable that increases by a billion dollars a day and external factors kicking in to make it graph out like the righthand side of a parabola. If you want a number per ounce, just pick one between $5,000 and infinity. Whatever you come up with, it's about as meaningful as pricing an ounce of real wealth as however many pounds of sawdust.

Regards to all,

Caradoc
jenika
(11/06/2004; 05:55:54 MDT - Msg ID: 126122)
*******467********
My prediction this time is based on current market price of 1oz as per ebay with an increase in price at average $3 per day.
"Where gold is going and why".

I think gold is going up because;
1. Oil demand - I beleive oil is priced in gold.
2. GW Bush is back in power and the world has the jitters.
3. The declining value of the US dollar is not considered a good investment.
4. More and more people are realising precious metals are a safe haven for their savings.
5. Property is overpriced and not a good investment.
Great Albino Bat
(11/06/2004; 07:02:36 MDT - Msg ID: 126123)
Checking in from Mar del Plata, Argentina...

Anyone seriously considering changing their residence should think about Argentina. Magnificent country - with its problems, yes, but also with vast potential for individual efforts to bear fruit. Argentina is CIVILIZED. The flavor of the country is European.

*****

A true story came to mind this morning. Back in the mid-1800's, an American trading ship - sail back in those days - went up into the Arctic during the summer, with a load of rum. They came to a small Eskimo village and traded rum barrels for seal skins or whatever.

The ship returned a year later, and found the village gone. All the villagers were dead. They had not survived the winter, they had been carousing, madly drunk on rum the whole time they should have been preparing for winter.
********
Lesson: the whole world is on a crazy drunk of PAPER, PLASTIC OR ELECTRONIC MONEY. It is malinvesting its savings. Sure, it's been a wonderfully satisfying drunken orgy, but - winter will come. Now, it's not just a little village in the Arctic that is at risk; it's the whole world.

So, don't join the orgy. Set aside as much as you can, for the coming economic winter: it is going to be a long, hard winter. Buy gold and stay SOBER!

the GAB
YGM
(11/06/2004; 09:01:41 MDT - Msg ID: 126124)
Great Albino Bat (11/6/04; 07:02:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 126123)
The "LESSON" ....great and true comparison....'Paper Drunks'

Love Bolivia myself, but no Ocean...Peru also, not yet seen Argentina....Thru good times & bad times, people seem alot happier than in N.A.....Civility and generosity unsurpassed! (by most Latinos)...IMHO...YGM
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(11/06/2004; 12:37:12 MDT - Msg ID: 126125)
Hard assets, easy access!
http://www.usagold.com/buy-gold-coins.html

gold -- a global calling card
TomJIl
(11/06/2004; 16:21:03 MDT - Msg ID: 126126)
$$$$$$$$ 000.00 $$$$$$$$$

Like it's predecessor, 9/11-II would be extremely useful for a number of purposes. Amoung other things, it would 'explain' a crisis in the financial markets. Also, such a thing would be a necessary prerequisite to conscription (_not_ known as a 'draft' to those who also don't call the firebombs we used in Iraq 'napalm' because the petroleum distilate base has changed slightly since Vietnam.)

If/When this happens, I've little doubt that $000.00 will be the most accurate way to describe the _price_ of gold on 'legitimate' markets. I doubt that it will happen in time for me to take this guessing contest...but I doubt that I will be lucky enough to nail it with a more conventional guess as well. On the other hand (re. timing), a draft does not imediatly put boots on the ground in the Middle East since there is a lag for training (amoung other social infrastructure engineering necessities) and time lost is very painful as the insurgency in Iraq is, in my opinion, doing quite well in terms of forming a solid foundation. Thus I would be more surprised to see 9/11-II happen never than I would to see it happen tomarrow.
mackattack
(11/06/2004; 18:24:25 MDT - Msg ID: 126127)
$$$ 454.50 $$$$$
One guess is as good as another.But at some point the manipulators will get blindsided'so obvious is their game.Now that China and Russia is fully aware of the game,the demise thereof is only a matter of time.

$$$ 454.50 $$$$$
mikal
(11/06/2004; 18:34:36 MDT - Msg ID: 126128)
Yuan getting a yen for freedom?
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000006&sid=a4oYWNtpoShc&refer=homeChina says it will pursue a "more flexible" Yuan policy
November 6, 2004
Judging from what Merrill Lynch, Chase and others have been saying on this, currency change is in the wind.
But before deciding that a new, widened or basket-style peg is needed to help "cool down" their economy, China may act anyway to protect their investments at home and abroad.
Along with their traditional, regional and especially Cold-War era trading partners, survival means hanging together in good times and bad. And so it is that hard times call for even harder assets and alas, sometimes hearts too.
mikal
(11/06/2004; 19:49:19 MDT - Msg ID: 126129)
Trending toward "regional economic integration"
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/msid-911288,curpg-1.cmsChina, Asean trade likely to top $100bn by year-end - The Times of India
November 5, 2004
Waverider
(11/07/2004; 01:23:44 MDT - Msg ID: 126130)
**** 447.50 *****
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=$USD,PThe attached P'nF chart of the US$ shows a spread triple bottom breakdown as of Friday November 5, 2004. Using a bearish horizontal count to calculate the price objective, I get a a PO of 68. The dollar's goin' down and I expect that this will accelerate now that the election is over. Also, Spot has closed >$432.00 breaking previous resistance and we should see some breakout fireworks this coming week....just Waverider's view FWIW! Cheers!
Gandalf the White
(11/07/2004; 07:27:56 MDT - Msg ID: 126131)
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ THE "PRICE of GOLD" GUESSING CONTEST!! $$$$$$$$$$$$

TAA TAA TAAAAAAAAAAAAA, TAA TAA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !


Entries as of SUNDAY 11/7/04 at just about 07:10 Denver time !!!

OFFICIAL ENTRY LISTING

Listed in order of decreasing values !
----

$$$ $8,752.0 $$$ The Invisible Hand (11/6/04; 02:45:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 126118)

$$$$ $575.2 $$$$ Sprout (11/5/04; 15:19:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 126103)

$$$$ $499.0 $$$$ Caradoc (11/6/04; 04:35:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 126120)

$$$$ $467.0 $$$$ jenika (11/6/04; 05:55:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 126122)

$$$$ $456.5 $$$$ Gene (11/5/04; 11:03:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 126096)

$$$$ $454.5 $$$$ mackattack (11/6/04; 18:24:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 126127)

$$$$ $451.6 $$$$ mikal (11/5/04; 13:35:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 126099)

$$$$ $450.0 $$$$ Lothar of the Hill People (11/5/04; 14:19:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 126101)

$$$$ $447.5 $$$$ Waverider (11/07/04; 01:23:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 126130)

$$$$ $446.3 $$$$ Sundeck (11/6/04; 04:20:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 126119)

$$$$ $444.4 $$$$ Zhisheng (11/4/04; 10:56:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 126063)

$$$$ $442.5 $$$$ Noble1 (11/5/04; 18:23:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 126110)

$$$$ $441.7 $$$$ Smeagol (11/5/04; 17:15:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 126105)

$$$$ $439.6 $$$$ Rustee (11/5/04; 09:02:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 126086)

$$$$ $438.9 $$$$ Liberty Head (11/5/04; 21:37:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 126116)

$$$$ $431.6 $$$$ servantHeart (11/5/04; 10:26:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 126092)

$$$$ $431.0 $$$$ DryWasher (11/4/04; 16:13:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 126074

$$$$ $426.5 $$$$ Topaz (11/4/04; 16:13:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 126075)

$$$$ $422.3 $$$$ The Knife (11/5/04; 10:03:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 126089)

$$$$ $000.0 $$$$ TomJIl (11/6/04; 16:21:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 126126)

===
Lots of time for you LURKERS to get your "POSTING" password from the Town Crier and make your entry !
Just follow the instructions at the LINK:
"Discussion Forum Guidelines"
at the top of this page.

<;-)

mikal
(11/07/2004; 09:01:23 MDT - Msg ID: 126132)
A fire hydrant fallback strategy
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/2002084436_bushbiz07.htmlThe next 4 years: a shift to "ownership society"
by Peter G. Gosselin - November 7, 2004 - L.A. Times
PPT or SOS?
If passed as most expect, at what interest rate will the trillions in new loans be priced which the US will use to start-up private social security accounts for young workers?
YGM
(11/07/2004; 09:39:25 MDT - Msg ID: 126133)
$$$$435.50$$$$
....Has the Gold Caper Endgame began?....
I believe so...The next "Great Fleecing of the Masses" has begun the endrun...
....The investing worlds insatiable lust for Gold will now begin to unfold and the "Death Throes of Gold Shorts" will, combined with the buying frenzy of 'Joe Sixpack' amaze historians, shock the 'Paper' pushers and cause a great redistribution of wealth...Sadly little will be gained by the average person and those with great debt loads and paper assets will feel much pain in the months/years ahead...I cannot imagine what else may accompany the coming Fiat vs Gold crisis, such as Trade Wars, Cold Wars or even Real Wars...I'll leave that to other prognosticators...I don't believe anything happens by accident in the world of CB's...The scene we see about to unfold has been (IMO) in the works for years..."So I make my guess" of $$$$435.50$$$$ based on the Short folks being dragged kicking and screaming to the days of "LIMIT UP GOLD"...Soon to be on Wall Street Radar Screen!!!!!....YGM
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(11/07/2004; 11:08:49 MDT - Msg ID: 126134)
SECOND EDITION: Newly Updated -- Written for Today's Market!
http://www.abcs-of-gold-investing.com/

Gold Investing - Second Edition
Clink!
(11/07/2004; 12:25:34 MDT - Msg ID: 126135)
$$$ 427.0 $$$
I can't remember who here said 'I may be wrong, I often am', but I do believe I have a pretty solid record of getting these price prognostications significantly wrong. So I'm going to say that, despite the tide of dollars washing the POG further along, the wave that took it over the 16-year high mark is going to drop back a little awaiting the next wave.
I'm ready with my golden surfboard !
C!
Cometose
(11/07/2004; 13:14:00 MDT - Msg ID: 126136)
****450.10****
I believe that GOld is going to get a big lift this week ...
because
a) Resistance at 433 is being taken out.....
b) Monday starts early in the far east and I think they are going

1)to buy up the market on follow through because of greed ( not wanting to miss the move which may later be precipitated in NY on Monday)
2) and because they know in the long term GOLD IS MONEY and therefore a good investment .

c) the dollar suppport is now much lower 8147 according
to one / its support being broken and gravity what it is
it's precipitous decline over the next couple of days
prior to the Fed meeting is likely to propel gold on
way

d) as a b and c occur , increased buying will come into this market acting like a self fulfilling prophece ; all these factors are going to snowball into each other

e) Short covering is going to ensue from those caught in the fray ......this may be a pivot point for large derivitives holders (banks and insurance cos) who may pemanently shift into long positions.....which will mean that the short covering will turn into excessive buying for shorts to establish long positions

f) The absence of counseling for our President and congress in the form of a class called "SPENDERS ANONYMOUS" which sends a clear message to the INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY that this would be an advantageous/ opportune time to sell dollar denominated assets before the avalanche of selling comes ; it's clear these players know where the exit doors are and they are finding them in an orderly fashion before someone yells fire in the INTERNATIONAL THEATRE of PAPER WOE.
Toolie
(11/07/2004; 14:32:08 MDT - Msg ID: 126137)
$$$$ $448.8 $$$$
The reelection of W sent the signal. The worlds CBs and politicians ready their attack poodles for release. There is no longer room for a sole superpower. Dollar hegemony must go. It begins this week�death by a thousand ankle bites.
YGM
(11/07/2004; 16:09:38 MDT - Msg ID: 126138)
Bloomberg Gold News
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=nifea&&sid=aOSOl0uxw0RQExcerpt...Twenty-nine of 45 traders, investors and analysts surveyed from Sydney to New York on Nov. 4 and Nov. 5 advised buying gold, which is sold in dollars. Ten recommended selling the metal, and six were neutral....


***10 believe Gold will drop obviously & they probably think Fed hike Nov 10th will stall POG & expect correction...
----"OR"--- they're selling short & want help!!!!..YGM
Caradoc
(11/07/2004; 16:55:52 MDT - Msg ID: 126139)
Dollar expected to fall amid China's rumoured selling
http://www.costco.com/Browse/Product.aspx?Prodid=11008820&whse=⊤nav=&cat=4181&hierPath=84*4181*Snip:
The dollar sell-off has resumed amid fears among traders that Mr Bush's victory will bring four more years of widening US budget and current account deficits, heightened geopolitical risks and a policy of "benign neglect" of the dollar.

Many currency traders were taken aback on Friday when the greenback fell in spite of bullish data showing the US economy created 337,000 jobs in October.

"If this can't cause the dollar to strengthen you have to tell me what will. This is a big green light to sell the dollar," said David Bloom, currency analyst at HSBC, as the greenback fell to a nine-year low in trade-weighted terms.
********end of snip*********

Sounds pretty clear, doesn't it? And we're getting it from a non-"goldbug" source on the same weekend the US public is beginning to hear commercials about why to invest in silver. Interesting, but barring some major event, it'll probably take 6 to 8 weeks before Joe Sixpack begins to think maybe he should climb onboard. In short, plenty of time to add to your positions. Just call our host's number...

Golden Lionheart
(11/07/2004; 17:13:00 MDT - Msg ID: 126140)
********419.50*******
Short term I see gold dropping towards $410, medium term a substantial rise towards $500 and over and long term a gradual drop to the region well below $200. This is what my charts tell me.

Medium term the usual well known, getting slightly boring hearing about them, things like the overworked greenback printing presses, oil (I expect a substantial drop in the price soon) etc etc.

I do not expect the so called Cabal to relax their grip in the short term. They were supposed to have been taken out at prices such as $300, $330, $370, $412 the list I have heard is as long as my arm. It never happened. One day the big boys sentiment will change, then we will have fireworks.

Buy gold and enjoy the ride!
Golden Lionheart
(11/07/2004; 18:22:42 MDT - Msg ID: 126141)
Gold - The destination......
I should have added something to my last post when I said "Buy gold and enjoy the ride" The ride will be long and bumpy and everyone should select a destination where they leave the ride. Do not expect to get off at the final destination, very few do. How many people do you know who can truthfully say I sold my PM holdings in 1980 within $50 or even $100 of the top?





YGM
(11/07/2004; 20:18:21 MDT - Msg ID: 126142)
Life After the OIL Crash....
http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/A Wake up Call to us all....
Ned
(11/07/2004; 20:44:56 MDT - Msg ID: 126143)
From ASPO........The Bush-Cheney Energy Strategy
http://www.peakoil.net/iwood2003/paper/KlarePaper.docsnip:


"The Cheney report's emphasis on procuring ever-increasing supplies of imported energy to satisfy America's growing demand will have a profound impact on American foreign and military policy in the years ahead. Not only will American officials have to negotiate access to these overseas supplies and arrange for the sorts of investments that will make increased production and export possible, but they must also take steps to make certain that foreign deliveries to the United States are not impeded by war, revolution, or civil disorder. These imperatives will govern U.S. policy toward all significant energy-supplying regions, especially the Persian Gulf area, the Caspian Sea basin, Africa, and Latin America.

As will become evident from the discussion that follows, moreover, implementation of the Cheney energy plan will also have significant implications for U.S. security policy and for the actual deployment and utilization of American military forces. This is so because most of the countries that are expected to supply the United States with increased petroleum in the years ahead are riven by internal conflicts or harbor strong anti-American sentiments, or both. This means that American efforts to procure additional oil from foreign sources are almost certain to encounter violent disorder and resistance in many key producing areas. And while U.S. officials might prefer to avoid the use of force in such situations, they may conclude that the only way to ensure the continued flow of energy is to guard the oil fields and pipelines with American soldiers.

To add to Washington's dilemma, the very fact of U.S. troop deployments in the oil-producing areas is likely to stir up resentment from inhabitants of these areas who fear the revival of colonialism or who object to particular American policies (such as, for example, U.S. support for Israel). As a result, American efforts to safeguard the flow of oil could well result in the intensification rather than the diminution of local disorder and violence � leading, in turn, to the deployment of additional American troops and a continuing spiral of confrontation and conflict./9/ "
Bizarro-Greenspan
(11/07/2004; 21:06:58 MDT - Msg ID: 126144)
Henry Kissinger
http://www.iht.com/bin/print_ipub.php?file=/articles/2004/11/05/opinion/edkissinger.html
Brings us up to speed on the NWO.
Gandalf the White
(11/07/2004; 21:28:37 MDT - Msg ID: 126145)
The US$ chart CONTINUES the DIVE ! <;-)
http://charts-d.quote.com:443/1002980432830?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=DX00Y∬erval=10&Ht=600&Wd=800&Display=2&Study=MA&Param1=13&Param2=0&Param3=&FontSize=10Looks as if the US$ in headed your way Sir GAB !
But I know that you will be headed back North in the near future.
<;-)
GoldCoaster
(11/07/2004; 21:36:12 MDT - Msg ID: 126146)
Austria to sell Gold
Here is a snippet from miningnews "Austria keen on gold sales"



Monday, November 08, 2004
AUSTRIA'S central bank has re-kindled the debate about official gold sales by announcing that it plans to continue sales over the next five years.

Austrian treasury director, Peter Zoellner, told wire services at a conference in London that Austria would sell less than 90 tonnes, but he declined to put a specific figure on the sales.

The sales would be in accord with an orderly gold disposal agreement between European banks.

Austria is said to hold a total of 318t of gold and has been a regular seller over the past five years.

"We've seen good returns on gold over the last five years; it's been a good experience," Zoellner told Dow Jones.
End.







mudr
(11/07/2004; 21:59:16 MDT - Msg ID: 126147)
$$$$429.10$$$$
$$$$429.10$$$$ By Mudr
That's my guess for the price of GOLD contest. Why? People are beginning to wake up to the fact that GOLD isn't going back to $300. The U.S. dollar seems ready to tank even more and is sure to not to climb back into healthy territory -especially with record (and astonishing) high debt. Another reason is that other currencies are being backed by GOLD - and even some countries are rumored to be increasing their GPLD hording. And as I mentioned first - the common person is waking up that GOLD is real money, sure to retain it's value - so why not own even just a little? Or a lot. GOLD to $500 next year is a sure thing.
Mudr
Sundeck
(11/07/2004; 22:35:28 MDT - Msg ID: 126148)
When wil Japan intervene?
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000101&sid=aOx55nsLohz8&refer=japanSnip:

"...

Japan will likely try to stem any rapid appreciation of its currency, Ito said. Bank of Japan Governor Toshihiko Fukui yesterday signaled the central bank may sell its currency for the first time in almost eight months. ``We are keeping a good eye on the movements of exchange rates,'' including the yen, Fukui told reporters in Basel, Switzerland.

The Bank of Japan refrained from selling yen from March 16 to Oct. 27, according to the most recent Ministry of Finance data.

``If the yen moves 3 yen overnight without the euro moving at all, that's probably a good trigger,'' Ito said. ``If the yen approaches 100, that's a psychological barrier. They may try to defend that.''

The dollar is down 3.7 percent against the yen and 4.2 percent versus the euro in the past month.

Ito, 54, was a senior adviser to the International Monetary Fund on capital markets from 1994 to 1997. The author of eight books in English and Japanese, he has written several articles on central bank currency selling and the impact on the foreign exchange market.

..."


Sundeck: The Yen is back at the level of early this year when the BOJ made heafty purchases of the dollar...at the present rate of the dollar's descent, the BOJ will probably start intervening sooner rather than later.

I wonder what "agreements" exist between the FED, BOJ and the European Central Bank et al. to cope with times like these??? Is it dog eat dog, or are these bankers/Ministry of Finance people "civilised" types? (Dumb question??)

:-)
Knallgold
(11/07/2004; 23:41:45 MDT - Msg ID: 126149)
Austria
Zoellner is a complete idiot,if he intended to get a quota on the WA2,he would had to announce it on the last Washington meeting.The WA2 is in force since 27. September and I do see this as breach of contract,no matter how much they originally intended to sell.This gives new uncertainity on the Goldmarket and lowers the value of their words close to zero.

And talking down Gold the day after Gold breaches 433 is a bit too obvious.

Go Gold!
Go GATA!

Aristotle
(11/08/2004; 01:59:51 MDT - Msg ID: 126151)
Knallgold, Austria, and so on...
I'd chalk this up as a case of making mountains out of molehills, but heck, these aren't even molehills. There's so little Gold involved here that it's more like you're making a pebble out of a sand grain. Were you just in a dark mood and looking for any ol' excuse to vent? 'Cause this hardly qualifies as worthy of raising anyones dander.

You didn't really expect that fabulous Austrian Mint would be put into mothballs did you? And on top of that, it's my humblest opinion that you're making way too much of the whole "announcement" deal. It's never been the case that each seller had to publicly pre-announce their details of participation. Looking back on the completed terms of the first agreement shows that a lot of the reallocation details were left to speculation, and market insiders/watchers who thought they had it all figured out were surprised after the fact that Germany and Portugal had a few grains in there. Either way, the exact makeup of the cast of characters and the size of their parts didn't then (and still won't) do anything to derail the basic script or bring down the curtain on Gold. The show that never ends.

Kinda makes you wonder what world Golden Lionheart (msg#: 126140) is livin' in. Charts might tease his brain with visions of Gold below $200, but I'd wager he'd have a pretty tough time explaining/describing the corresponding economic realities of that hypothetical day. In other words, what would be the dollar's exchange rate v. the euro? What would be the price of oil? What would be the price of bread that currently sells for two bucks? Where's the S&P and Nasdaq? What's the fed funds rate? What's the ten-year rate? What's the monthly balance of trade position? What's the budget deficit of the federal government? Has the banking system been decimated? When do the patterns of human behavior become suspended to knock us completely off our current course into his fanciful forecasted future?

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle
DoubleEagle
(11/08/2004; 02:27:48 MDT - Msg ID: 126152)
$$$$$ 444.5 $$$$$
There are lots of good reasons that gold will continue to become more valuable. These are discussed on this great forum each and every day. I choose to go with a more, "from the gut" reason. People need something they can count on. Be it religion, or each other. In an age where more and more things can be faked, there will eventually be a collective outcry for something that can't be created or destroyed on a whim. Gold is simply the very best store of wealth/medium of exchange that man has ever discovered, a very element of this earth, provided by God. What else can you bury in your backyard, have your grandchildren dig up in 50 years, and have it clean up as if it spent all of those 18,250 days in a vault?

I have faith that the paper cataracts over the eyes of man will soon fall.

-DoubleEagle
Knallgold
(11/08/2004; 04:09:32 MDT - Msg ID: 126153)
Aristotle
Yes I'm in a dark mood these days,my Daddy is very ill and prepares for dying,this must impact my mood (though not my investment decisions).We always had (and still have) wonderful and lengthy discussions about world politics and financials.I could convince him to buy a stash of physical 4 years ago,but he remained a skeptic about my Goldprojections.I always told him "Papi,you will live to see it!".Being a player (roulette...),this "bet" somehow keeps him alive-a player does not leave when the ball is still rolling...

The amount of Gold isn't worth mentioning,yes,and if it goes to the mint,good,I like those Philharmonikers (even the 30kg Biggie) :-)

My critic is:why can't they be more straight,more reliable on something intended to add to transparency?They are supposed to operate the "honest fiat" regime!Guess I'm a hopeless romantic.Sickandtired of this cheap charade,I know that it won't change the big picture,but I have chosen the red pill :-(

Another point:it has been argued here about the work-out of the Goldcarry trade since 99.So if FreeGold is achieved when all the Gold available is equal to all the Gold mined'shouldn't there be signs of reduced Gold derivatives (also part of the WAG's)?What I see (if seeing in paperfog is not an oxymoron) is just more of the same,ETF,new futures,SGE proposes also a Goldfuture,more shorting etc..,just adding to the paperGold Olympus Mons.

Doesen't look like the trail is leading to a free physical Goldmarket.Unless you still propose the kaboom-all-Goldderivatives-to be declared worthless-in a second-scenario.Like awakening in the trail camp one day,going outside and seeing the earthdisk on the sky.This does not fit in the stability oriented smooth and gradual transition we have seen so far,the Goldchart also looks perfect.


Topaz
(11/08/2004; 04:24:06 MDT - Msg ID: 126154)
$200 Gold @ Ari.
Ah! $200PoG ... totally plausable Ari. Just let Sir Al pull the plug on the presses for a few weeks. They "are" snookered ... having to print like blazes just to keep IR's "normal". If they stop rates go to Zero ...then Futures move to Cash, in the process all Futures derived pricing (including Gold) will be discounted. Stocks, RE, the whole sheebang.
Gold isn't the antithesis of the Dollar (in isolation) ... it's the Arch-nemesis of the SYSTEM!
Show me Gold rising strongly in ALL currencies Sir and I might entertain a simplistic "Gold to da Moon" notion, until then, large doses of skepticism re: it's price and how it gets there are, imo warranted.
Topaz
(11/08/2004; 04:24:27 MDT - Msg ID: 126155)
$200 Gold @ Ari.
Ah! $200PoG ... totally plausable Ari. Just let Sir Al pull the plug on the presses for a few weeks. They "are" snookered ... having to print like blazes just to keep IR's "normal". If they stop rates go to Zero ...then Futures move to Cash, in the process all Futures derived pricing (including Gold) will be discounted. Stocks, RE, the whole sheebang.
Gold isn't the antithesis of the Dollar (in isolation) ... it's the Arch-nemesis of the SYSTEM!
Show me Gold rising strongly in ALL currencies Sir and I might entertain a simplistic "Gold to da Moon" notion, until then, large doses of skepticism re: it's price and how it gets there are, imo warranted.
Great Albino Bat
(11/08/2004; 06:29:56 MDT - Msg ID: 126156)
Hello from Buenos Aires!

The papers here are abuzz with speculation regarding the hard facts of the so-far secret agreements to be signed between CHINA and Argentina. They are said to involve massive transfusions of dollars, in return for contracts on commodities for the next 30 (thirty!) years, to supply China's needs.

Perhaps what we begin to see, is a sloshing around the world, of enormous dollars balances accumulated by China, these balances looking for something TANGIBLE to buy.

Noranda in Canada, and now Argentina become suppliers of commodities to China. As a headline here read recently: "Argentina's future looks YELLOW".

A news article says that the Chinese have chosen Argentina as their beachhead, while the Japanese have favored Brazil.

As the Orientals run out of resources and space, are they now looking across the Pacific for those resources and living space? Lots of tempting empty space on this side of the Pacific...

IMO, Argentina should not be hypothecating its future production, in return for - paper.

In the meantime, while China "makes hay", the U.S.A. is engaged in useless wars in Iraq and Afghanistan that are wasting its substance, demoralizing its populace and making enemies all over the world. Madness reigns supreme! "Omnes insanire"

The GAB
YGM
(11/08/2004; 07:25:55 MDT - Msg ID: 126157)
GoldCoaster, Knallgold...Austrian Gold Sales....
http://www.lbma.org.uk/clearing_table.htmAre a non-event, a blip on the screen..The LBMA cleared 384.4 T ""Daily Average"" in the month of Sept. /04
....I do notice tho the daily amounts cleared have dropped to the lowest in 8 years from 45 M Oz to 12.4...FWIW
Regards...YGM
YGM
(11/08/2004; 07:32:32 MDT - Msg ID: 126158)
LBMA C Bullion Clearing Chart fr /96 to /04
http://www.lbma.org.uk/clearing_charts.htmGold & Silver.....Reaching new lows.....
YGM
(11/08/2004; 09:34:24 MDT - Msg ID: 126159)
Gold Shuttle 2.....
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/wallenwein/2004/1107.htmlNov 7/04 Editorial from Financial Sense....
Knallgold
(11/08/2004; 09:50:55 MDT - Msg ID: 126160)
YGM
-Thanks for the chart-assuming the LBMA is where the papermonster breeds,I do see a trend,even though it seems to flatten a bit (I guess the POG surge is taking its toll).

-Are the new "Goldproducts" coming up therefore just for liliputans and irrelevant regarding overall Goldpapervolume?The goldencolored ETF has been touted as Goldalternative for the big funds though.

-But what I'm still not getting is this so-called 15000t short position being worked-out without write-offs,and I'm assuming a good part of it is coming from lending (badly underwater now).A default is IMHO still the most likely scenarion-GWB cornered to be the bogeyman?The EU propaganda against Bush was so blatant I have to assume they had an agenda.

-regarding the missing 2200t of the WA2-a newsletter here wrote they're having a hard time to still find a stupid willing to sell his Gold.I'm not going to make an Oesterreicher Witz here as the Swiss were even more stupid.Interesting is only that the Austrian Mint can't go the the Goldmarket and buy the Gold outright.
YGM
(11/08/2004; 10:31:02 MDT - Msg ID: 126161)
Knallgold......Default?????
This to my mind "IS" the Gorilla in the Mist...Will it happen...Myself I think it quite possible, although it may foreshadow total meltdown of Paper Investments...Remember the bail outs of LTCM & Tiger Management...I believe they were saved so as to prolong the fleecing...To think as I do one should probably believe the 1929 crash was orchestrated...As I've said many times.."In the world of Central Bankers" "Nothing happens by accident"...Flood the world w/ Debt and flush the toilet...The "Airy Nothing Game" begins anew w/ new ways and new "Paper" Instruments coupled with human greed and desperation....That together with the expected ramifications of Peak Oil etc the world enters a period of major changes....The last open window of opportunity for cheap Gold is closing as we speak...The world does not have the natural resources to give the 3rd World the lifestyle of the west and they want it...How better to slow the pace than another "Great Depression"...Complacency reigns supreme in the world today, and there will be many surprises along the way...JMHO...FWIW...YGM

Get GOLD/SILVER & Go GATA
Aristotle
(11/08/2004; 11:52:01 MDT - Msg ID: 126162)
Knallgold -- it's the *association* (or lack of) that really matters
http://www.lbma.org.uk/clearing_charts.htmPlease accept my sincerest regards to your father, and to all of us who try to make the best of the time remaining to us.

I'm glad to hear you like the Philharmonikers. That's always been my bullion coin of choice. Keeping them all in good company, ratio-wise, for each and every one of those that I have stacked away I have as nearly as I can guess without trying too hard roughly five sovereigns, six assorted French, Swiss, and Belgian 20francs, 2-3 German 20mks, two Dutch 10Gs, and a pleasing array of Gold from other corners of the world. Mintwise, they're all excellent, but if I had to split hairs I don't think there's any topping the Austrian and German mints for quality of craftsmanship. So, yes, let's keep that Gold coming to the mint! I promise you won't be hearing me call Zoellner off-suit names for it.

Regarding your frustrations about the assorted ideas for adding new Gold-paperfog to parts of the world, YGM was right to point you the declining LBMA clearing charts. Because, the most important thing to remember is that it requires an ASSOCIATION tying together all of the various papergold obligations into a cohesive ("monetary-like") system to obscure the Physical behind the apparent merits of the inflating papergold supply. United they can stand for a while, divided they shall fall the sooner.

The new papergold products you mentioned are bits and bobs of a house divided, confirmed further by the declining figures and the changing faces at the LBMA, especially in these past five years. And more to that point, the "association" I speak of requires more than just names filling a membership roster. It means they must risk themselves for each other, filling the breach when a counterparty fails and tips one of the dominoes.

Sure, they still look chummy together at the conferences, but those days are over.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle
Aristotle
(11/08/2004; 12:19:37 MDT - Msg ID: 126163)
Topaz says, "Just let Sir Al pull the plug on the presses for a few weeks."
Much easier said than done.

I'd anticipated somebody might float that idea, so that's why one of my final questions to be considered was "When do the patterns of human behavior become suspended?" To be sure, banks, and especially central banks, fear deflation more than anything else. And the electorate is none to fond of it either, so the political reality says (whispering) to all who'll listen to it... "Not in your lifetime."

I'll readily accept your proposal that Gold *futures* may someday be discounted dubiously as an unassociated game of counterparty numbers, but that premise merely reinforces/restates that Physical Gold will NOT be moving at the derivative price.

Townie's referred to Gold as the "anti-money" and here I see you calling it the "Arch-nemisis of the System." I think you're saying the same things, and I COMPLETELY agree with it; see my comments on "association" to Sir Knallgold.

Gold. Get you some truly "system-free" safety. --- Aristotle
TownCrier
(11/08/2004; 12:38:20 MDT - Msg ID: 126164)
Sign of the times: Colombia (and its peso) bets against the dollar
http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh24458_2004-11-08_17-27-48_n08453439_newsmlHEADLINE: Colombia to sell global bond in pesos, pay dollars

BOGOTA, Colombia, Nov 8 (Reuters) - Betting that its peso will remain strong against the U.S. dollar over the next six years, Colombia on Monday said it will sell a $250 million global bond to be issued in pesos and repaid in dollars.

The sale of the 2010 bond, planned for later this week, will mark the first time for the war-torn Andean country will make such a gamble on its own currency, which has risen 10.4 percent against the dollar over the last 12 months to 2,547 per greenback on Monday.

"This is a clear sign of confidence in the country," Colombia's Director of Public Credit Felipe Sardi said in a conference call with investors.

On Monday, the dollar sagged to new record lows against the euro and a nine-year low against a basket of currencies. Many analysts say the dollar is relapsing into its long-running decline, heavily weighed by the wide U.S. trade gap.

...Uruguay had been the first Latin American country to issue a similarly structured bond.

-----(from url)-----

To say it is a sign of confidence in Colombia is the politically polite way around of saying it is a vote of no confidence in the dollar.

Did you ever think such a day would arrive that Colombian pesos could ever be the market's choice over U.S. dollars?

With an eye to diversify, you can take a similar social gamble on printable pesos, or you can choose the tangible security of unprintable gold. Choose gold.

R.
Gandalf the White
(11/08/2004; 13:57:29 MDT - Msg ID: 126165)
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ THE "PRICE of GOLD" GUESSING CONTEST!! $$$$$$$$$$$$

TAA TAA TAAAAAAAAAAAAA, TAA TAA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !

Entries as of MONDAY 11/8/04 at just about 13:00 Denver time !!!

OFFICIAL ENTRY LISTING

Listed in order of decreasing values !
----

$$$ $8,752.0 $$$ The Invisible Hand (11/6/04; 02:45:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 126118)

$$$$ $575.2 $$$$ Sprout (11/5/04; 15:19:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 126103)

$$$$ $499.0 $$$$ Caradoc (11/6/04; 04:35:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 126120)

$$$$ $467.0 $$$$ jenika (11/6/04; 05:55:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 126122)

$$$$ $456.5 $$$$ Gene (11/5/04; 11:03:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 126096)

$$$$ $454.5 $$$$ mackattack (11/6/04; 18:24:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 126127)

$$$$ $451.6 $$$$ mikal (11/5/04; 13:35:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 126099)

$$$$ $450.1 $$$$ Cometose (11/7/04; 13:14:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 126136)

$$$$ $450.0 $$$$ Lothar of the Hill People (11/5/04; 14:19:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 126101)

$$$$ $448.8 $$$$ Toolie (11/7/04; 14:32:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 126137)

$$$$ $447.5 $$$$ Waverider (11/07/04; 01:23:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 126130)

$$$$ $446.3 $$$$ Sundeck (11/6/04; 04:20:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 126119)

$$$$ $444.5 $$$$ DoubleEagle (11/8/04; 02:27:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 126152)

$$$$ $444.4 $$$$ Zhisheng (11/4/04; 10:56:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 126063)

$$$$ $442.5 $$$$ Noble1 (11/5/04; 18:23:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 126110)

$$$$ $441.7 $$$$ Smeagol (11/5/04; 17:15:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 126105)

$$$$ $439.6 $$$$ Rustee (11/5/04; 09:02:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 126086)

$$$$ $438.9 $$$$ Liberty Head (11/5/04; 21:37:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 126116)

$$$$ $435.5 $$$$ YGM (11/7/04; 09:39:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 126133)

$$$$ $431.6 $$$$ servantHeart (11/5/04; 10:26:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 126092)

$$$$ $431.0 $$$$ DryWasher (11/4/04; 16:13:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 126074

$$$$ $429.1 $$$$ mudr (11/7/04; 21:59:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 126147)

$$$$ $427.0 $$$$ Clink! (11/7/04; 12:25:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 126135)

$$$$ $426.5 $$$$ Topaz (11/4/04; 16:13:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 126075)

$$$$ $422.3 $$$$ The Knife (11/5/04; 10:03:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 126089)

$$$$ $419.5 $$$$ Golden Lionheart (11/7/04; 17:13:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 126140)

$$$$ $000.0 $$$$ TomJIl (11/6/04; 16:21:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 126126)

===
Lots of time for you LURKERS to get your "POSTING" password from the Town Crier and make your entry !
Just follow the instructions at the LINK:
"Discussion Forum Guidelines"
at the top of this page.
<;-)
Gandalf the White
(11/08/2004; 14:03:45 MDT - Msg ID: 126166)
TODAY's -----"KING of the HILL" -----report ! <;-)

COMEX December '04 Gold Contract (GCZ04)
Open = $435.0 HIGH = $436.1 low = $431.9
SETTLEMENT = $433.4 CHANGE -$0.9
===
AND the "KING of the HILL" today is STILL:
Sir ServantHeart (11/5/04; 10:26:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 126092)
$$$$ $431.6 $$$$
---
Hang in there Sir ServantHeart !
<;-)
J-Bullion
(11/08/2004; 14:12:45 MDT - Msg ID: 126167)
****$445.20***
Gold is going nowhere. It will sit and hold it's value like it's done for the last 6,000 years. The U.S. dollar and other currencies however are dropping to their historic intrinsic value, which is namely zero.
USAGOLD Daily Market Report
(11/08/2004; 14:37:53 MDT - Msg ID: 126168)
Page Update!
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Daily Gold Market Report has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.

-----closing market excerpts------

gold futures close above $430 for a third session

"The arguments to be long gold -- weak dollar, strong physical demand and prospect of lower mine supplies, geo-political instability particularly in the Middle East and global terror threat -- all remain," said James Moore, analyst at TheBullionDesk.com in London.

"U.S. data due this week, which includes October retail sales and [the] September international trade report as well as the FOMC rate announcement on Wednesday, looks set to keep market volatility high," he said in a note to clients. "But the bulls still seem firmly in control with $440 the next major target once the $433 to $436 hurdle is cleared."

Comex December futures fell 90 cents to close at $433.40 after tallying a total gain of $13.50 over the last three sessions.

Taking a look at the bigger picture, "gold, silver, and the euro are overbought and entitled to some consolidation," said Peter Grandich, editor of The Grandich Letter, an investment advisory publication.

But "all the ingredients that got us to this point remain intact," he said, adding that "gold remains off the radar of most investors, and the mainstream financials bode well for those of us who envision $500-plus."

-----(see url for access to full news, 24-hr international newswire)---
Shanti
(11/08/2004; 14:53:41 MDT - Msg ID: 126169)
$$$$$$433,30$$$$$$

Many thanks for the briliant inside posts around here lately, definitly the information shared, is times ahead and a mixture of these insights will, as time matures be found to be as tru as ever....

Imagine the pressure build up now in the markets around the world, just one click can move zillions of confetti in seconds!!! Yes, even nano seconds !!!
Therefore keep it simple and consider the insurance as what the real GOLD is teaching us now as a once in a liftime opportunety!

Contest guess for this ST is more a casino gamble as to my personal, LT is what matters.

Sal-OM All !!
Shanti
TownCrier
(11/08/2004; 14:55:59 MDT - Msg ID: 126170)
INTERNATIONAL: Gold price reaches record high
http://www.thehimalayantimes.com/fullstory.asp?filename=aBXaza0rdqzpda4Ua6va.axamal&folder=aBDasaian729&Name=Business&dtSiteDate=20041109&sImageFileName=(Himalayan News Service) Kathmandu, November 8 -- Increasing significantly over the last few days, the price of gold has reached an all time high of Rs 10,440 per 10 gram in the local market.

"Decrease in the value of US dollar over yen and euro and political instability observed in the Middle East are contributing towards an increased demand for gold reserves, triggering a price rise . These are the main reasons for the increase in the price of gold in the international market," said Tej Ratna Shakya, president of Nepal Gold and Silver Dealers' Association.

Nepal has a small gold market and we entirely depend on imports. Thus even a slight change in the international market will surely affect the local market. Local markets also fluctuate due to increasing demand during festive seasons, Shakya added.

The drop in the value of dollar is contributing 90 per cent to the gold price hike, the rest is due to increased jewelry demand, international experts said. Jewelry sales have gone up in the last six months in the international market. Gold prices may rise for the second week on speculation of increased demand from investors seeking an alternative asset to US stocks, bonds and the dollar, a Bloomberg survey showed.

Twenty-one out of the 52 traders, investors and strategists surveyed on October 28-29 from Sydney to New York by Bloomberg urged investors to buy gold this week. Thirteen advised clients to sell, and 18 recommended no action on the precious metal. Gold prices rose by 3.5 per cent in October, outperforming a 1.4 per cent rise in the Standard and Poor's 500 Index as dollar fell 2.8 per cent against the euro.

------(from url)-----

By most accounts, gold is the place to be, doing well as is and yet to be discovered and put to widespread use by the masses of traditional western investors. Thus underutilized, present buyers enjoy its undervalued price.

R.
YGM
(11/08/2004; 15:05:02 MDT - Msg ID: 126171)
TC....JP Morgan Metals Strategist
http://www.thebulliondesk.com/content/reports/jpmorgan/metalsoiltechstrategist.pdfWhen even the monarch of Gold Shorting (JPM) goes long, people better wake up....They sold 50% longs at $434....Looking to $440. for the other 50%...Bullish in short and long term....Looking for $7.80 Silver....We'll see what their forecast is in a week or two....YGM
slingshot
(11/08/2004; 16:12:58 MDT - Msg ID: 126172)
$$$$$$$449.9$$$$$$$$
Where is Gold Going? Well, I hope alittle more will cross my palms and into safe keeping before it rockets off to Da Moon! This replay of the $330 line in the sand will accelerate faster than it took to get to $430. Recognition of the Yellow Dog will commense at about $450. This recognition that $2.00 plus $2.00 equals $3.00 buying power.
Then their resistance will break seeing that it will cost them more when $449.9 is broken. Hard to break away from a system you have used for many years and grown accustumed to.
Many will run to the lifeboat (GOLD) as the Titanic (US DOLLAR) slips under the sea by the bow. I have heard and read repeatively. Nobody wants gold when its below $450 but everyone will want it after breaking $450. Gold at $500 this year? Maybe, but for sure next year.
Slingshot------------<>
Sundeck
(11/08/2004; 17:38:44 MDT - Msg ID: 126173)
US dollar - as good as gold (not)
Snippit from today's Australian Financial review:

Colleen Ryan in article "China Observed" states that:

"Local newspapers in Shanghai reported yesterday that touts on the currency blackmarket have been refusing to accept $US for the last two weeks. That tells you something."

Suspicious lot those currency touts...wonder what their ears are connected to?

;-)
shawnis
(11/08/2004; 20:28:31 MDT - Msg ID: 126175)
$$$440.0$$$
I've been lurking lurking on this board for a while. This seems like a great time to stand up and say "Hello!"

Bought my first handful of silver on a lark maybe a year ago. After doing that, it got me thinking about gold! So I found you guys.

Since I was a little kid I have always wanted to rub my hands over gold and silver coins and have a little, or not so little, box of it buried in the back yard that only I would know about. Of course there would be a treasure map for my family after I die. OK OK. I'm silly.

Anyway I say $440.00 and "Hello!"
LimitUp
(11/08/2004; 21:21:32 MDT - Msg ID: 126176)
Welcome shawnis
It's not silly at all. It's obvious you were "born" to be a Gold Bug. Honest money for honest people. Welcome young bug!!!
Gandalf the White
(11/08/2004; 21:28:03 MDT - Msg ID: 126177)
WELCOME Sir Shawnis ! <;-)
and HELLO !
That was a nice ROUND number.
<;-)
YGM
(11/08/2004; 21:34:03 MDT - Msg ID: 126178)
Hyperinflation......Past Episodes (printing the way to a Bananna Republic)
http://www2.sjsu.edu/faculty/watkins/hyper.htmSAN JOS� STATE UNIVERSITY
ECONOMICS DEPARTMENT
Thayer Watkins
EPISODES OF HYPERINFLATION
Sundeck
(11/08/2004; 21:40:29 MDT - Msg ID: 126179)
BOJ at it again?
http://www.thestandard.com.hk/thestandard/news_detail_frame.cfm?articleid=52091∫catid=1Snip:

"...
Stronger local currencies reduce the value of exporters' dollar-denominated revenue and make goods shipped to US, the largest destination for Asia's exports, more expensive.

Lehman Brothers' London-based currency strategist Michael Dicks said last week's determined intervention by the Bank of Japan to prevent the yen-dollar rate moving through 105 - spending a sum equivalent to 5 per cent of gross domestic product in the process - has got ``market participants nervous that they might do so again''.

``Likewise, despite assurances from the Chinese authorities that they are working on the problem, progress is slow in getting rid of their dollar peg,'' Dicks said.

..."

Sundeck: What??? Can this be correct? 5% of GDP in one week...LAST week??? Can that be true?
Black Blade
(11/09/2004; 00:24:02 MDT - Msg ID: 126181)
Placer Dome, Barrick Latest Gold Cos. To Tap Capital Mkts
http://money.iwon.com/jsp/nw/nwdt_rt_top.jsp?cat=TOPBIZ&src=704&feed=dji§ion=news≠ws_id=dji-00069020041108&date=20041108&alias=/alias/money/cm/nw
Snippit:

VANCOUVER (Dow Jones)--Gold miner Placer Dome Inc. (PDG) decided to tap the equity markets for the first time in more than a decade because it's eyeing a number of mine projects for possible development, senior vice-president Joe Danni said.

As reported, Placer has filed to issue US$500 million worth of common shares. The underwriters will have an option to buy up to 10% more. CIBC World Markets and Scotia Capital are lead managers for the offering.

Proceeds will be used for general corporate purposes, which may include funding new project development and other capital expenditures, Placer Dome stated.

Separately, Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX) on Monday priced US$750 million of notes in three parts via joint lead managers Deutsche Bank Securities and Morgan Stanley, according to syndicate sources. The company is expected to issue a release soon. Barrick had filed an amended and restated shelf prospectus last week for a debt offering of up to US$1 billion. The Toronto-based gold miner is planning to build five new gold mines in the coming years.


Black Blade: One major problem is where will they find experienced explorationists (particularly geologists)? They mostly have moved on, Universities have switched to enviro-studies by eliminating "real geology". and many have moved on to petroleum making 3X+ as much. So far the Gold miners are still looking for "cheap" professionals. These new projects in the article will be very slow going and are old projects abandoned over the years. I suspect that their new staffs will speak spanish or chinese. ;-)
Black Blade
(11/09/2004; 00:31:42 MDT - Msg ID: 126182)
Gold prices may firm up on festival demand
http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/2004/11/09/stories/2004110900351300.htm
Snippit:

STRONG demand for gold and silver is likely to continue this week with robust consumer buying for the ongoing Diwali festival at retail counters across the country, despite rising prices in the global and domestic market.

"Festival demand from consumers and corporates was strong especially in jewellery and coins. I feel strong buying at retail level will continue to drive market this week," a local trader said.

"Demand for gold was strong last week. Total gold sales were nearly 2.50 tonnes last Thursdaybecause of "Guru Pushya Yog", an auspicious day. I think demand will continue this week," Mr Bhargav Vaidya, a bullion analyst told Business Line.

"In the international market, gold prices may rule higher on continued demand. Retail demand is not halted even at higher level. Gold coins purchase by corporates is strong as a gift for Diwali ," Mr Suresh Hundia, President of the Bombay Bullion Association (BBA) said.


Black Blade: As I stated previously. I buy Gold and Silver bullion (and some coin - here at the castle is a nice selection). However, for work, unless the miners can triple their pay and long term contracts, then I will stay with the petroleum club as other mining pros have done. The festival season has a ways to run, the western holiday season is coming soon, and the USD is plunging to new depths as the current and budget deficits climb higher with no end in sight. For portfolio insurance just give the castle guards a call for a nice chat (USAGOLD that is).

Black Blade
(11/09/2004; 00:44:17 MDT - Msg ID: 126183)
Dollar Holds Near Record Low Against Euro Amid Deficit Concern
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000101&sid=ah.QWkZv6uAQ&refer=japan
Snippit:

Nov. 8 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar traded close to an all-time low against the euro on concern a report this week will show the U.S. trade shortfall held near a record.

European policy makers contributed to the dollar's slide by indicating last week they aren't opposed to the euro's rally, said strategists including Mark Austin, head of currency strategy at HSBC Holdings Plc. Japan probably won't resume selling yen and buying dollars at the record pace of the first quarter, former deputy finance minister Takatoshi Ito said last week.

``The dollar's definitely going down for the next few weeks,'' said Austin at HSBC, the fifth-largest currency trader. ``Central banks don't seem to be too worried at the moment. We've had plenty of opportunity for them to complain more loudly and we've had pretty muted comments so far.''


Black Blade: Just the "tip of the iceberg" so to say. It will get much worse and I would say the current account trade deficit being the bigger of the twin deficits. I does not matter who was elected either. It's a done deal so hard assets like Gold and Silver as imperative as a base investment (actually insurance from my perspective). The people to talk to are are hosts of course. Mr. Silver and IRA (George Cooper aka Marketalk), Marie and Jonathon on the small order desk, and Mike - the "real big Kahuna" for the gritty details (BTW, thanks for the new book - "updated" ABC's of Gold).

Off to bed now, gotta drill out a NatGas well tomorrow.
Ned
(11/09/2004; 02:32:22 MDT - Msg ID: 126184)
Saw on Headline News just a moment ago...........
.......that "Cuba abandons US dollar..."

Anyone hear/know of the story?

Cometose
(11/09/2004; 05:33:55 MDT - Msg ID: 126185)
Ned/ Cuba
Yep, that CUBA was going to disallow dollars for use in their commerce was being talked about on these Gold Forums for a week now ...maybe 10 days ...since I first read something on this

I think someone else may have abandoned the dollar over the weekened as well......

Cometose
(11/09/2004; 06:47:14 MDT - Msg ID: 126186)
NED./ Cuba
In addition to CUBA , there is a South American Nation which is currrently doing a BOND ISSUE......I think it may be Colombia ......THEY ARE ISSUING Debt to raise PESOS and they are GOING TO PAY IN DOLLARS...........
this looks like a short play on the dollar to me as well...

THIS LOOKS LIKE THE REVERSE of what happened in the 90's when the dollar was strong ......and Japanese interest rates were .25 / Everyone borrowed yen at low low low rates and invested in the US MARKETS........

Now that the air is coming out of the balloon and the dollar is going down ......THESE type of plays in reverse are happening....THis particular gov't's currency has risen 12% against the dollar recently.......

They are (BANKERS) screwing their Bondholders (whoever they are (naive)) who seem to love dollars. Can they sell these bonds to the uninformed public ; are they going to place them with their MUTUAL FUND MANAGER BRETHREN who are going to put them in their clients holdings (pensions funds , etc)...Are they going to TRADE THEM LIKE A HOT POTATO....around a circle of INSIDER MANAGERS to generate commissions..?
WHOEVER IS LEFT HOLDING AT THE END OF THE DOLLAR SPIRAL ....will be wanting to sell at the bottom because this baby will be the SWAN that took the Swan DIVE and became the ugly duckling.
John the Jute
(11/09/2004; 08:41:44 MDT - Msg ID: 126187)
$$$$ $432.5 $$$$
Two of the correspondents whose posts I respect the most -- Sundeck and Waverider -- have posted estimates very close together. Dare I disagree with them when they agree with each other? The one with an elegant imitation of the style of Herman Melville, and the other with technical analysis that I cannot gainsay.

Actually I cannot understand the technical analysis. The Lady writes of using a "bearish horizontal count" and my mind is filled with a picture of Pooh Bear lying on his back in the Hundred Acre Wood trying to remember what number comes after four. :-)

I think I must dare to disagree. I too fear a post-election recession which will increase the price of gold. In fact, being a Jute, I fear two such recesssions: one in the US following Mr Bush's re-election, and another in the UK following Mr Blair's re-election in May.

But I do not expect this effect to bite as quickly as next Monday. So I post a "steady as she goes" guess.
Rimh
(11/09/2004; 09:45:02 MDT - Msg ID: 126188)
******* $443.2 *******
I firmly believe we are headed for $500 and beyond, but guessing how soon and how quickly it will break at this point in time is hard. The question, as I see it, is when will the common folks (excluding any here at the castle who are, most assuredly, not common) recognize that the rats have started abandoning the USD ship?

For now it will break up, but I believe they will try to temper the rise, if only to buy more time for the insiders(rats) to get away with more loot.
YGM
(11/09/2004; 09:48:34 MDT - Msg ID: 126189)
The Beginning....
http://interestalert.com/brand/siteia.shtml?Story=st/sn/11090000aaa06eab.upi&Sys=siteia&Fid=LATEBRKN&Type=News&Filter=Late%20BreakingExcerpt....

Analyst predicts U.S.-China trade war


BEIJING, Nov. 9 (UPI) -- China and the United States are likely to face a trade war sparked by the U.S. budget deficit and pressure on China to devalue the yuan, a top analyst says.

Stephen Roach, chief economist at Morgan Stanley, said the.....cont'd
balzac
(11/09/2004; 09:58:29 MDT - Msg ID: 126190)
PRICE GUESS
$$$$434.5$$$$
Roach at Morgan Stanley takes the posn that a weaker $ is a good thing for America because it will bring a rise in bond yields which will be required for greater currency risk. This in turn will cause incr
savings and reduced consumer spending? Will this reduce the current acct deficit? If this is true, then in the long run it will also depress gold prices. Therefore watchout for a rise in interest rates.

balzac
Gandalf the White
(11/09/2004; 10:00:15 MDT - Msg ID: 126191)
It is TIME to JUMP ! <;-)
Together now SPIKE and SPOT ---
JUMP, JUMP, JUMP !
<;-)
YGM
(11/09/2004; 10:04:14 MDT - Msg ID: 126192)
balzac....re: Interest Rates
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,137961,00.htmlyou may be right there....Snip....

Fed Seen Raising Interest Rates to Ensure Long-Term Growth
Monday, November 08, 2004

WASHINGTON � Another small hike in U.S. interest rates is seen as a certainty when Federal Reserve (search) policy-makers meet on Wednesday � a step on the march toward a level of rates necessary to underpin long-term expansion.

Since policy-setting members of the Federal Open Market Committee (search) began raising rates in June, they have edged up the bellwether federal funds rate (search), charged on overnight loans between banks, three times in quarter percentage point stages to 1.75 percent.

There is virtually unanimous agreement among analysts that a matching incremental increase will be announced on Wednesday to bring the fed funds rate to 2 percent and a growing consensus that will not mark the end nor even a pause in the rate-rise cycle.....cont'd


Waverider
(11/09/2004; 10:07:45 MDT - Msg ID: 126193)
Pooh Bear & Hundred Acre Wood
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=$USD,PJohn the Jute -thanks for the laugh this morning. Let me see if I can provide a simple and quick explanation. Here we go - the point and figure chart is pure price movement without time considerations, so only price changes are recorded. If no price changes occur, the chart remains untouched. Also, volume is not recorded at all. "x's" represents rising prices, and "o's" represent declining prices. Each time one column of x's moves one box above the previous column, an upside breakout occurs, and vice versa, each time a column of o's moves below the previous column, a breakdown occurs. The numbers represent the month of the year 1-9 is January to September, but rather than using double digit numbers, A = October, B= November and C = December.

Okay, look across the bottom row (horizonal) of O's. Count the number of boxes left to right from the first to the last and there are 7 (with 3 "o's, hence "spread triple bottom breakdown). It appears that the greater the build up of the horizontal count, the greater the pressure for the breakout/breakdown move. The given formula I used is 7x3=21. Minus this (21) from the top "o" of the column to obtain a price objective. In this case, the "o" is A (October). It is at 89. 89-21 = 68.

It seems that the more common way to calculate a price objective is to take the horizantal count (7) and minus it from the breakdown point (in this case 84.07). Using this method the price objective is 77. I don't know enough about Point and figure charting to know the merits/limitations of the two formulas. Hope this helps to understand the mysteries of Pooh Bear & Hundred Acre Wood!

PS - Spot's @ $436.00
Gandalf the White
(11/09/2004; 10:07:50 MDT - Msg ID: 126194)
REMINDER !!! <;-)
TAA TAA TAAAAAAAAAAAAA, TAA TAA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ A "PRICE of GOLD" GUESSING CONTEST!! $$$$$$$$$$$$

We shall have a price guessing contest on the closing (Settlement price) of gold for the December Comex contract (GC4Z) on Monday, November 15, 2004, ---BUT all entries must be posted to the TableRound before Midnight on Wednesday, November 10th.

The POG Contest winner -- the closest price guess to the actual Settlement Price -- will receive a British Queen Victoria Sovereign (which may be seen at the following LINK)
http://www.usagold.com/gold/coins/BritVict.html

These coins were Minted between 1871 and 1901, are of a Fineness of 0.917, with an Actual Gold Content of 0.2354 troy ounce.

There will be also be two runners-up prizes for the next closest prognostications --- each winning an one ounce Canadian Silver Maple Leaf.
----

THE RULES -- (We MUST have RULES !!) --- PLEASE READ !!

1) The Winner is the poster with the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX (most active) December 2004 Gold Contract (GC4Z) on the date of Monday, November 15, 2004.

2) Secret invisable "Rule".

3) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $444.4)

4) "Guesses" shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT BOX location AND enclosed in markers of "Dollar Signs" so as to be OFFICIAL !
(Such as $$$$$$444.4 $$$$$$$ )

5) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".

6) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes MIDNIGHT (24:00) on Wednesday, November 10, 2004.

7) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY (as this part MUST accompany the Price prognostication)
--- In order for your entry to be valid, entries will need to have a paragraph or more discussing;
"Where gold is going and why". <===== NOTE !!!
---
ONLY about 38 hours to go before DEADLINE !
<;-)
Gandalf the White
(11/09/2004; 10:15:54 MDT - Msg ID: 126195)
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ THE "PRICE of GOLD" GUESSING CONTEST!! $$$$$$$$$$$$

TAA TAA TAAAAAAAAAAAAA, TAA TAA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !

Entries as of TUESDAY 11/9/04 at just about 10:10 Denver time !!!

OFFICIAL ENTRY LISTING

Listed in order of decreasing values !
----

$$$ $8,752.0 $$$ The Invisible Hand (11/6/04; 02:45:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 126118)

$$$$ $575.2 $$$$ Sprout (11/5/04; 15:19:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 126103)

$$$$ $499.0 $$$$ Caradoc (11/6/04; 04:35:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 126120)

$$$$ $467.0 $$$$ jenika (11/6/04; 05:55:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 126122)

$$$$ $456.5 $$$$ Gene (11/5/04; 11:03:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 126096)

$$$$ $454.5 $$$$ mackattack (11/6/04; 18:24:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 126127)

$$$$ $451.6 $$$$ mikal (11/5/04; 13:35:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 126099)

$$$$ $450.1 $$$$ Cometose (11/7/04; 13:14:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 126136)
$$$$ $450.0 $$$$ Lothar of the Hill People (11/5/04; 14:19:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 126101)
$$$$ $449.9 $$$$ slingshot (11/8/04; 16:12:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 126172)

$$$$ $448.8 $$$$ Toolie (11/7/04; 14:32:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 126137)

$$$$ $447.5 $$$$ Waverider (11/07/04; 01:23:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 126130)

$$$$ $446.3 $$$$ Sundeck (11/6/04; 04:20:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 126119)

$$$$ $445.2 $$$$ J-Bullion (11/8/04; 14:12:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 126167)

$$$$ $444.5 $$$$ DoubleEagle (11/8/04; 02:27:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 126152)
$$$$ $444.4 $$$$ Zhisheng (11/4/04; 10:56:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 126063)

$$$$ $443.2 $$$$ Rimh (11/9/04; 09:45:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 126188)

$$$$ $442.5 $$$$ Noble1 (11/5/04; 18:23:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 126110)

$$$$ $441.7 $$$$ Smeagol (11/5/04; 17:15:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 126105)

$$$$ $440.0 $$$$ shawnis (11/8/04; 20:28:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 126175)

$$$$ $439.6 $$$$ Rustee (11/5/04; 09:02:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 126086)

$$$$ $438.9 $$$$ Liberty Head (11/5/04; 21:37:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 126116)

$$$$ $435.5 $$$$ YGM (11/7/04; 09:39:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 126133)

$$$$ $434.5 $$$$ balzac (11/9/04; 09:58:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 126190)

$$$$ $433,3 $$$$ Shanti (11/8/04; 14:53:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 126169)

$$$$ $432.5 $$$$ John the Jute (11/9/04; 08:41:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 126187)

$$$$ $431.6 $$$$ servantHeart (11/5/04; 10:26:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 126092)

$$$$ $431.0 $$$$ DryWasher (11/4/04; 16:13:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 126074

$$$$ $429.1 $$$$ mudr (11/7/04; 21:59:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 126147)

$$$$ $427.0 $$$$ Clink! (11/7/04; 12:25:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 126135)

$$$$ $426.5 $$$$ Topaz (11/4/04; 16:13:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 126075)

$$$$ $422.3 $$$$ The Knife (11/5/04; 10:03:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 126089)

$$$$ $419.5 $$$$ Golden Lionheart (11/7/04; 17:13:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 126140)

$$$$ $000.0 $$$$ TomJIl (11/6/04; 16:21:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 126126)

===
<;-)
Buongiorno!
(11/09/2004; 10:25:54 MDT - Msg ID: 126196)
$$$$$448.1$$$$

Looks like a breakout day today, followed by a pull back near weekend, then stronger Monday. US offensive to bring retaliation and general chaos. Regret that, but undeniably good for gold. Overall, we still want to "Spend ourselves rich, then borrow our way out of debt!" Gold for the short run, and for the long pull....gold!

Buongiorno!
shawnis
(11/09/2004; 10:56:17 MDT - Msg ID: 126197)
$$$$$440.0$$$$$
I know I've already guessed, but when I read the rules today, I noticed I am missing a few parts. So, lest I have my winnings denied, I wish to repost, with my same guess, and make it legal.

>3) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
>(Such as $444.4)

$440.0 - I had stated it in hundredths. Sorry.

>7) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY (as this part MUST accompany the
>Price prognostication)
>--- In order for your entry to be valid, entries will need to
>have a paragraph or more discussing;
>"Where gold is going and why". <===== NOTE !!!

I think the dollar going down will make more and more of the public nervous. I think we are about to hit a period of slow-rising inflation over the period of years. Gold will top $1000.
Knallgold
(11/09/2004; 11:12:21 MDT - Msg ID: 126198)
Aristotle
I think I get your point re: association and the LBMA being the conscious spider in midst of the web.

As to the frustration on the new Goldproducts popping up,there was also the prospect of a new eurobullion coin having no value stamped on it,well,it would have been a nice addition (even if it would be made with Swiss Gold!).

The golden bird doesen't need a spiderweb,he has wings!




Shermag
(11/09/2004; 11:36:45 MDT - Msg ID: 126199)
$$$$ 440.8 $$$$
Gold is going higher, much higher than most people think. When I tell acquaintences that I expect gold to be higher than $1000 within the next four years, the response is invariably disbelief. When asked what they expect, they respond with a price consistant within the range of the last ten years. Rear view mirror vision.
The Hoople
(11/09/2004; 12:08:36 MDT - Msg ID: 126200)
$$$$429.5$$$$

The first panacea for a mismanaged nation is inflation of the currency; the second is war. Both bring a temporary prosperity; both bring a permanent ruin. But both are the refuge of political and economic opportunists.

- Ernest Hemingway

We have a grossly mismanaged nation. The question is not if we will depreciate fiat but by what rate. 70 trillion unfunded liabilities tells me the rate must accelerate soon. Someday "US dollar" will get its place alongside the Confederate, Weimar, and other currencies prefaced with "not worth a ..". My belief is 2005 will see an acceleration of current monetary debasement and therefore very good for gold and silver. How good depends on when cabal intervention tricks no longer work.
Gandalf the White
(11/09/2004; 12:28:37 MDT - Msg ID: 126201)
TODAY's -----"KING of the HILL" -----report ! <;-)

COMEX December '04 Gold Contract (GCZ04)
Open = $434.5 HIGH = $437.5 low = $433.3
SETTLEMENT = $436.2 CHANGE +$2.8
===
AND the "KING of the HILL" today is:
TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

Sir YGM (the former Yukon Gold Miner)
---
$$$$ $435.5 $$$$ YGM (11/7/04; 09:39:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 126133)
<;-)
Clink!
(11/09/2004; 12:35:20 MDT - Msg ID: 126202)
@ The Hoople re that $70Trillion
I was reading Peter Petersen's 'Running on Empty' recently, and the story is even worse than the bare figure would indicate. The problem is that the two main future liabilities are Medicare, the cost of which is rising significantly faster than inflation, and Social Security which is index-linked. So, barring the fact that the official inflation figure underestimates the real one, deliberately inflating the dollar to try to weasel out of the liability just won't work to any significant effect.

C!
The Hoople
(11/09/2004; 13:15:45 MDT - Msg ID: 126203)
Clink! , point well taken
I'm also sure the unofficial unfunded liabilities gets the figures up to total insanity. Are we quasi-guaranteeing Fannie? That alone is impossible. Pension funds, FDIC, more impossible. I was reading the GATA dispatch of "Episodes of Hyperinflation" by Thayer Watkins. Sobering account of destitute governments printing themselves into oblivion. In every instance gold, if allowed to be possessed, would have been the only salvation.
Shapur
(11/09/2004; 13:22:31 MDT - Msg ID: 126204)
$$$$$$$$444.00$$$$$$$$$ Official Contest Entry
Obviously Gold has been going up and is in a bull market. The cheap asset stage of the bull is over with 300 being taken out and now 433 being taken out too. The 433 level, 16 year old high, is the marker for this next stage bull market sequence.

Institutional money will start to pour into the Gold ETF's, the gold mutual funds will have strong inflows and by the end of this stage we should see growth in the number of gold funds out there. Smart money will be showing a little golden flash in their portfolios. This next leg will take us up to the old all time highs---850's range.

Then we back and fill, back and fill.

I am basing my 444 guess on a 3% breakout of 433 for the contest were we should see some possible settlement activity. Its my best guess.

Thanks!!!!!!!!!!!!!
YGM
(11/09/2004; 13:29:53 MDT - Msg ID: 126205)
Gandy......King of the Hill for a day!..... OK!
But, t'would be far so better to have a "Queen" on a Monday than be a "King" on a tuesday (:-}>
Cometose
(11/09/2004; 13:43:06 MDT - Msg ID: 126206)
HUI
If I was a mutual fund money market manager and my job was to make my clients money, and if I was greedy to get commissions based on my next quarter's performance.......
I'd .........
I'd..........
I'd ..........
I'd .............
have to take all the cash available to the fund ,
right now ,,,,,,,,,and
I'd buy up all the stocks that represent the HUI INDEX....

Aristotle
(11/09/2004; 13:46:07 MDT - Msg ID: 126207)
Knallgold -- the *association* factor
Excellent! I'm hoping you weren't the only one able to decipher the crux of that most important point of my post.

Getting back to coins for a minute, I'm glad you mentioned Big Phil. The mint made something like, what, 20 of those thousand ouncers? That's the better part of a tonne right there, and the mint had most of them pre-sold the moment they were struck and packaged in a velvet box. All I can say is I hope the mint continues to be the biggest factor in Austrian Gold sales.

I'm totally with you on your comment about face value on Gold in general. It really confuses the issue for a lot of people and continues to engender in their minds the unfortunate and inauspicious *associations* we were talking about earlier. Again, take Big Phil for example. I wonder how many casual observers will thinks it's value is equal to the 100,000 euro face value rather than something closer to the spot-based price (340,000 euro) I paid for mine? Ok, just kidding.... (it actually cost more.)
:-)

Truth be told, Big Phil probably wasn't the best example to use, because I'm sure that if we more carefully consider the nature of the fortunate few who will actually lay eyes on Big Phil and his 19 siblings, I'm sure we'll agree they won't be the kind of people who are unclear on the true matter of property in view. But the point certainly remains for the thousands of Gold newcomers who feast their eyes one the more accessible one-ounce cousins with face values of 2000 schillings (pre-euro mintage) or 100 euro.

Probably the primary thing that gives Gold bars their charm (if any) is the lack of any monetary face value. The only notions of *association* that the observer develops is that of hands-on and unambiguous ownership of the property in question.

You asked for a Eurpean Gold coin with no face value. Maybe someday we'll see it happpen. Until then, why not do what I do. Load up on piles of those nice jingly British Sovereigns. You'll get an old king or queen on one side circumscribed in Latin, and on the other side an iconic depiction of a dragon not having his best day under the hooves of an ill-armored St. George on horseback. (Hey, maybe that's where they originally got the Gold to mint the coins?? Acording to most legends, dragons were always much wiser about the affairs of savings and retirement planning than most people have been.) Anyway, getting back to the issue of no face value, there's nary a number to be found anywhere on the things, excpept for the date.

Make a good try at reassembling the entire dragon's hoard in your own vault, but always keep one in your pocket for a handy visual aid if you find yourself customarily talking to friends about money, economics, property, wealth, and Gold.

Gold. Get you some. Sovereigns! --- Aristotle
melda laure
(11/09/2004; 14:17:35 MDT - Msg ID: 126208)
Et earello, endorenna...
Where gold is going and why...

Seems a lot of us are thinking "where is the POG going and why".. when the question is just asking where it came from and where it is going, you might ask "who is buying and who is selling, what is being sold, and to whom? Usually as I recall, it comes out of the ground, and (lately) goes right back in- to a vault somewhere a Venezuelenno.
YGM
(11/09/2004; 14:50:57 MDT - Msg ID: 126209)
Who's Buying All The Gold???..........WELL...
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock/faq.htmlwith the Fed owning 40% of US Debt and the devaluation of th US $ going on the, (contrary to public knowledge) "Privately Owned Federal Reserve Bank" would be my first guess. Anyone should be able to figure out that if those who create and own wealth on/in 'Paper' choose to have it devalue in purchase power they would automaticaly look to Gold for protection plus profits to equalize or better the 'Paper' losses by devaluation.....As usual w/ CB's "Secrecy" is the byword......BTW...notice this site (DEBT CLOCK) calls that 40% as held by Fed & 'Other' Gov't Agencies...Well guess what the Fed is & always has been "PRIVATELY OWNED" so that leaves us with the question how much of the +40% do the 'Other Gov't Agencies own?....
I think I may answer that from my files later...(memory says Fed has about 30%)...But for now be assured the Fed would be the big player in the Gold Markets.....Bash Gold, Buy Gold, Devalue Fiat, Re-Value or let Markets re-Value Gold and presto a "Big Fix" all around!!!
This "Fix" could be the biggest play on words ever! And the biggest end run the world ever saw.....JMH (or misguided?) Opinion.......YGM
DryWasher
(11/09/2004; 15:22:13 MDT - Msg ID: 126210)
Revisited - The Real Reasons for the Upcoming War With Iraq
http://www.ratical.org/ratville/CAH/RRiraqWar.html
The above linked somewhat dated essay by William Clark is well worth reading because it ties the effort of the United States to prevent the sale of oil for euros, rather than dollars, to Global "Peak Oil" as the twin reasons behind the war in Iraq in a very understandable way.

I t is also interesting to see how well Mr. Clark's predictions have held up to date as well. Of course none of this is news to those of us who have been following the postings of Sir Black Blade on this forum.

In a more current essay titled "The Real Reasons Why Iran is the Next Target" by Mr. Clark, dated Monday, Oct. 11 2004, and available at the link listed below, he describes why he believes Iran may be the next war target for the United States in the on going struggle over oil.

http://cvilleindymedia.org/newswire.php?story_id=903≺int_page=true∈clude_comments=true

DryWasher.
HOOSIER GOLDBUG
(11/09/2004; 15:27:14 MDT - Msg ID: 126211)
PRICE GUESS VALUATION
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$446.90$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
It's all about the fall of the dollar! As it deteriorated, GOLD will rise in price! No abrupt rises, but a controlled upswing!!
USAGOLD Daily Market Report
(11/09/2004; 15:29:58 MDT - Msg ID: 126212)
Page Update!
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Daily Gold Market Report has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.

---- closing market excerpts ----

Gold futures in New York closed at a 16-year peak on Tuesday, boosted by technical buying and increased speculative interest ahead of a U.S. Federal Reserve decision on interest rates on Wednesday.

COMEX division December gold futures climbed $2.80 to $436.20, after trading from $431.90 to $437.50 -- the highest mark for active futures since July 1988.

Estimated volume was 63,000 contracts.

"Technically, it is looking very strong," said Carl Birkelbach, president of Birkelbach Management Corp. in Chicago. "That $433.30 area in COMEX gold was an area that it was having trouble breaking above, and now that it's done that, there aren't any technical problems until about $500 or so."

Market talk of new gold-backed investment products in the pipeline for imminent launch also sparked speculative buying that kicked futures higher, said one long-time COMEX floor broker.

On a spot chart, gold prices ended the New York session above the $435 mark for the first since late 1988.

Dealers cited the sluggish tone of the U.S. dollar as the main buoying factor behind prices Tuesday. ...also .... anticipation ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest-rate decision due after Comex gold trading stops.

...many dealers argue that a 25 basis-point rise has already been "factored in" to prices.

Rising open interest in gold futures also spurred some buying interest, sources said, as it indicated the market has been successful attracting fresh buying interest as prices have climbed. Open interest is the number of futures contracts that haven't yet been fulfilled by delivery [...or, as the article should say, offset in the cash market with an opposing contract, as is more typically done by futures traders.--Randy's note].

-----(see url for access to full news, 24-hr international newswire)---

HEADLINES

New Gold And Commodity Exchange Formed In Dubai -- Global Custodian

Dollar's Slide Keeps Cloud Over U.S. Assets -- Reuters - Technology

Euro hits new high over dollar -- The Register-Guard

European policymakers fret over US dollar's slide -- Borsa Italiana - News

Austrian central bank to sell gold under new pact -- Borsa Italiana - News

Dominican Peso Strengthens Against Dollar -- Forbes - Business

Rubin Warns Dollar Decline Could Accelerate -- Sun-Sentinel
glockmaster19
(11/09/2004; 16:05:04 MDT - Msg ID: 126213)
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$438.2$$$$$$$$$$
"Where gold is going and why".

Gold is going UP because:

1. Main stream financial press starting to comment on gold's rise.
2. Dollar going down since asian buyers reducing purchases.
3. All the props to hold up the dollar are being removed now that the elections are finished.
4. Real Estate refi market is over. The "house=ATM" era is over. Reality and "feeling poorer" will hurt spending & economy, and drive dollar lower.
5. Fed will raise rates 1/4% soon, and that will not be enough to help stabalize dollar. But it will hurt real estate, stocks, and bonds. Gold will go up because that is all that is left ot go up.
R Powell
(11/09/2004; 16:21:26 MDT - Msg ID: 126214)
USAGold Report
From our own Daily Market Report..

"On a spot chart, gold prices ended the New York session above the $435 mark for the first since late 1988."

It's the date that caught my eye. 1988....That was a few more than a few years ago. Will this also catch the eyes of the trend following futures speculators? Maybe.
TownCrier
(11/09/2004; 16:42:39 MDT - Msg ID: 126215)
HEADLINE: Fed to give dollar scant relief as deficits deepen
http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh02924_2004-11-09_21-19-02_n09571570_newsmlNEW YORK, Nov 9 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise U.S. interest rates on Wednesday but even the prospect of higher dollar-denominated bond yields can do little to stem the tide of negative dollar sentiment...

The biggest weight on the dollar is the record U.S. current account deficit, a point likely to be underscored by the scheduled release of September trade data on Wednesday.

The fiscal 2004 budget deficit was $413 billion, or 3.6 percent of U.S. gross domestic product, according to Treasury Department data released Oct. 15.

"I don't see anything saving the dollar," said Bill Hoerter, trading desk manager with Alaron FX in Chicago.

-----(from url)----

If the U.S. were a member of the EU, it would cause much hand-wringing and get a tongue-lashing from its peers vis a vis the Stability and Growth Pact's 3% annual ceiling of budget deficits as a percentage of GDP. But since we're not bound to those treaties, interested international parties must simply vote with their feet (international portfolio shift).

Protect yourself from the consequences. Choose gold.

R.
R Powell
(11/09/2004; 16:43:29 MDT - Msg ID: 126216)
More
Also from today's USAGold Report...

"Rising open interest in gold futures also spurred some buying interest, sources said, as it indicated the market has been successful attracting fresh buying interest as prices have climbed. Open interest is the number of futures contracts that haven't yet been fulfilled by delivery [...or, as the article should say, offset in the cash market with an opposing contract, as is more typically done by futures traders.--Randy's note]."

True hedgers will offset buying OR selling in the cash markets with contracts in Comex. Eventually these have to be offset, or rolled forward, again, in Comex. I'd guess that the rising open interest is speculative, although some positions, long or short, may be hedges against other investments.
Just for fun, I tried to speculate today on reasons why the POG might not go up...long term. Other than a monetary liquidity seizure..I couldn't think of much. We certainly have quite a list of reasons why the POG should rise. I guess the President's party affiliation doesn't amount to a pee hole in the snow. Either one will continue the deficit spending...give the people what they shout for...bread, circus and welfare...no matter what the cost.
I've been reading, recently, some opinions of why the war(s) spending is good for the economy. I tend to view things from a somewhat longer term basis than a month or so...I guess they spin anything..
rich

misetich
(11/09/2004; 17:20:19 MDT - Msg ID: 126217)
Reality Check: U.S. Cargo Executives See Import Surges in Sept-Oct Nov 9 / 9:53 EST
http://www.economeister.com/reg/popup/single_story.jsp?prod=114&ts=1100011980000&sn=1&banner=mainwireSnip:

NEW YORK (MktNews) - Cargo entering the U.S. in September and October overwhelmed ports, railways and trucks, gumming up real-time inventory deliveries in what marks the heaviest peak-shipping season ever, industry officials say.

By mid-October there were 94 ships idling around the ports of Long Beach and Los Angeles, the nation's gateway for most Asian goods, unable to discharge. The bottlenecks were two-thirds as severe as during the worst of the port lockout two years ago and could leave a misleading impression of slowing imports.

If anything, the trade gap would continue to balloon if undelivered goods were factored in to port data. Indeed, diversions away from southern California are generating record inbound volumes at other ports and are likely to widen the trade gap in September, and more so in
October and November as sea-lanes are cleared.

Despite support from a soft dollar, exports are more ambiguous.
There are complaints that ocean carriers, in their rush to return to schedule, are refusing all but the empty containers they need to bring in more consumer goods from Asia. Others report a substantial export surge.

This import season "has been much more aggressive, earlier and more severe than in prior years," said Capt. Manny Aschemeyer, executive director of the Marine Exchange of Southern California, which oversees vessel traffic in the region. "This peak season is also lasting longer."

But port congestion has reduced the tallies of imports. "It's not a total damning of the river, of course. It's more like watching a sluggish drain in your kitchen sink," he said.
**************
Misetich

The trade deficit keeps on ballooning higher - and higher

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
Rocky
(11/09/2004; 17:52:09 MDT - Msg ID: 126218)
$$$$438.8$$$$
Gold is slowly but surely see-sawing its price upward due, in large part, to the deterioration of the dollar, which results in a search elsewhere for security. Security is found in having gold.
MK
(11/09/2004; 18:52:16 MDT - Msg ID: 126219)
TableRound
I have a question for your consideration:

How much do you think the Barrick $1 billion bond offer (and Placer's equity offer) has to do with gold breaking above the $430 mark?

I'd like to hear some opinion on this?

Think about it. . . . . .

Chris Powell, what do you think?
TownCrier
(11/09/2004; 19:20:53 MDT - Msg ID: 126220)
Yam on Renminbi, the American Dream, and on what it means to get what one asks for
http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh03206_2004-11-09_21-34-16_l09687503_newsmlGENEVA, Nov 9 (Reuters) - China is unlikely to relax controls that keep its currency tied closely to the U.S. dollar until after it manages a soft landing for its overheated economy, Hong Kong's chief central banker said on Tuesday.

Joseph Yam, chief executive of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, said Chinese officials were grappling with so many reforms designed to cool the overheated economy while edging it away from state control, they would be unlikely to embark on potentially destabilising currency reform soon.

"Even though flexibility in the renminbi exchange rate is the declared intention, I don't think you'll see it until after this soft landing is achieved because it's a long-term issue," he said, speaking at a university event in Geneva.

"There is too much on their plate at this point in time," he added.

Yam, who runs Hong Kong's de facto central bank, said he had no direct knowledge of plans under consideration by mainland China, only his experience as a central banker to draw on.

Yam cautioned that U.S. pressure on China to liberalise its currency regime, which keeps Chinese exports priced cheaply versus American rivals, might backfire if China were then to sell even a fraction of its huge dollar-denominated reserves.

"I think that sometimes the Americans are shooting themselves in the foot by putting pressure on China," he said.

If a fixed currency regime like China's became flexible, Chinese authorities would almost certainly begin to diversify their foreign exchange reserves, now held overwhelmingly in dollars.

With around $500 billion in U.S. currency reserves under Chinese ownership, and an additional $1.5 trillion held by other Asian central banks, even a small shift out of dollars could have an enormous impact on financial markets, he said.

------(see full article at url)-----

It's always good to listen in because Yam is one of the brighter stars in the CB galaxy.

For emphasis: ".....even a small shift out of dollars could have an enormous impact on financial markets..."

You surely understand why it is that monetary officials, for the most part, CANNOT say a positive word about buying gold. It's not necessarily that they want to quash gold or keep you away entirely, but rather that they know the market cannot orderly accommodate a positive official word on the matter. You, the prospective gold buyer, will have your gold and kind words too, but not until a little later when the price is so very much higher.

Meanwhile, the choice is yours -- to be one of the herd or to blaze your own Trail.

May I suggest the latter. Choose gold.

R.
Rimh
(11/09/2004; 19:27:22 MDT - Msg ID: 126221)
MK
You're not suggesting that they are preparing to cover some hedging that is well below water, are you? Of course they would never admit that. Or am I just cynical?
Felix the Cat
(11/09/2004; 19:53:34 MDT - Msg ID: 126222)
$$$$437.5$$$$
I won't miss the chance to win the Gold coin. LOL
TownCrier
(11/09/2004; 19:59:08 MDT - Msg ID: 126223)
For Rich on my cash market comment
I don't know if it matters one way or the other, but from your follow-up comments I'm not certain that my original comment was as intellegible (is "interpretable" a word?; if so, I choose the latter) as it could have been.

I tried to enhance (my polite way of saying "correct") the DowJones report by adding that part about futures being more typically offset in the cash market rather than by physical delivery, so when I said "cash market", by that I strictly meant the cash aspect of the exchage. Cash in, cash out. Cash settlement. Nothing but cash. Hence, instead of DowJones somewhat misleading comments about open interest representing those contracts that "haven't yet been fulfilled by delivery", I indicated that most were offset in the cash market.

Your following comments about activity of "true hedgers" brought immediately to mind that my comments regarding the cash market are probably highly prone to misinterpretation as equivalent to the spot physical market, where the "cash" implication (implying "metal today!") is generally a reference term distinct from the "futures" markets I was actually still referring to.

Like I said, I don't know if any of this matters, but I wanted to clarify my intended communciation there, if possible.

R.
YGM
(11/09/2004; 20:24:07 MDT - Msg ID: 126224)
MK....Barrick Bonds
From a purely uneducated standpoint I would say it's either to have cash to cover underwater Hedges (which I think they've done in other paper ways) or more like cash to aquire another Miner...Since the cost of Gold production is now so high and exploration so slow coupled with bringing a new mine to production time, they may be looking towards a takeover of another producer w/ proven reserves...If they can increase their reserves they'll have more yellow to bring forth yearly to cover CB Gold Loans....W/ Gold @ $430.+/- their stock may not look too appealing being so hedged.... Thus bonds and cash....JMO...FWIW...YGM
Toolie
(11/09/2004; 20:46:51 MDT - Msg ID: 126225)
FTAA RIP?
http://www.isn.ethz.ch/news/sw/details.cfm?ID=10112Snip: The election of Tabare Vazquez as Uruguay's president completes the hold of the democratic left over the continent's "southern cone" and represents the loss of Washington's last willing partner in the projected Free Trade Areas of the Americas (FTAA)�..

The election on 31 October of Tabare Vazquez as president of Uruguay confirms a political realignment towards the left has been taking place in South America during the past several years. With the victory of the Broad Front - a coalition of democratic socialists, communists, and former Tupamaro urban guerrillas - Vazquez completes the hold of the democratic left over the continent's "southern cone", which also includes Brazil, Paraguay, Chile, and Argentina. The major geostrategic consequence of Vazquez's election is the loss by the US of its last willing partner in the projected Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA), which is meant by Washington to create a hemispheric trading bloc dominated by the US�..

As is the case for all the left-of-center governments in the southern cone, the new administration in Montevideo will not face favorable conditions for realizing its welfare policies, which are essential for sustaining popular support. It will, however, join an emerging regional bloc that might be able to work cooperatively for economic development and integration, eventually fostering the desired social and economic results. The completion of left-of-center rule in the southern cone has the geostrategic significance of speeding up the drift towards multipolarity in world politics that has become evident in the aftermath of the US intervention in Iraq. In this case, US economic policy rather than its military posture has been responsible for a trend towards regionalism. (end snip)

Southern South America chooses self-determination over a dollar deluge. It looks like the hemispheric dollar has fallen well short of its goal. Some time back there was talk of a Mecosur currency, perhaps there will be more talk. Brazil has had some success in aligning devoloping nations in Africa toward bilateral trade agreements, as well as India and South Africa.

If the desired effect of massive dollar creation was to buy up the assets of the world utilizing free trade agreements, then this game may have run its course. We may have reached the point of saturation.
Legolas
(11/09/2004; 20:49:10 MDT - Msg ID: 126226)
$$$$429.5$$$$
I believe there will be a little profit taking/sell off in the near term, that's why I'm guessing low. However, I believe the POG is going up, Up, UP, based on the musings I've seen posted here over the months. Thanks for all the enlightenment.
YGM
(11/09/2004; 20:53:30 MDT - Msg ID: 126227)
Barrick Cont'd.....
http://www.barrick.com/3_Hedging/in just reading/skimming Barrick financials, I see they've cleared 1.5 M oz in /04 from the /03 total of 15.5 M oz....
They have contracts w/ 19 counterparties w/ I believe an average price of $400.+ p/oz...What mystifies me is their statement that they do not borrow Gold....So is leasing Gold & selling it into the market (as w/ the Gold Carry Trade past) any different than borrowing in the long run...
It was leased and sold at one price and still has to be replaced (hopefully) at higher prices....Seems to me they don't go under til they stand still!!! So aquisitions as w/ dot com bubble are the order of the day????...Musing now...YGM
YGM
(11/09/2004; 21:06:14 MDT - Msg ID: 126228)
Waverider.........Hang in there Lady
I see from over yonder your Brother and his Fishing boat are lost on BC coast and when the rest here know you'll have more prayers for his safe return.....I do hope you soon have good news......Respectfully...YGM
Chris Powell
(11/09/2004; 21:37:56 MDT - Msg ID: 126229)
Barrick bond offer and Placer Dome share issuance
Just speculation, but if I had that kind of money, I'd use a lot of it to buy gold, so why shouldn't Barrick and Placer Dome?

As Ted Butler and others have observed, any mining company that wants to support the price of its product need only keep part of its cash in metal. If Barrick and Placer Dome are raising cash here to buy or develop mining properties, they'll get it back in metal. Even if Barrick means only to hasten the covering of its hedges, it's still good for gold and maybe a matter of survival for the company.

At least these cash-raising developments suggest that two big mining companies think that their sector is worth investing in. Let's watch what they do. If they attempt some acquisitions -- with cash and new share issuance, I suppose -- we'll know that they're really eager for metal.
Goldendome
(11/09/2004; 21:38:13 MDT - Msg ID: 126230)
$$$$$$$$ 439.20 $$$$$$$

Ooh-la-la, contest time! After spending most of the past two weeks in the penalty box for mixing little financial with a big doses of political, I must say-- Seems to be happening just about the way many of us thought that it might.

Now, a nice thing about having significant physical holdings in these two relevant metals (Au and Ag) is that it gives a feeling of leverage without the margin risk for temporary price failure.
Accordingly, let's request a few more chunky sessions in here, to approach that 440 area. Always fun to be optimistic with our gold price projections, don't you think so? Hello again, and good luck to all!
Waverider
(11/09/2004; 21:43:16 MDT - Msg ID: 126231)
YGM....
...thanks kindly Sir. Yes, his commercial fishing vessel hit a rock on Sunday night and sunk. Search and rescue have been extraordinary but to no avail to date. Your thoughts are appreciated.
Gandalf the White
(11/09/2004; 22:31:06 MDT - Msg ID: 126232)
Note to Sir Legolas !
Legolas (11/9/04; 20:49:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 126226)
I believe there will be a little profit taking/sell off in the near term, that's why I'm guessing low.
===
Not a problemo Sir Legolas --- BUT, your shot is a little bit lower as Sir Hoople had hit that mark before you !
<;-)
goldquest
(11/09/2004; 22:34:50 MDT - Msg ID: 126233)
@Waverider
My thoughts and prayers are with you and your family. We will pray and hope for the safe return of your brother.
I have a son that operates a fishing boat in Alaska. I know the danger and risks that these crews face.
God bless, goldquest.
Canuck Gold
(11/09/2004; 22:40:27 MDT - Msg ID: 126234)
$$$$437.7$$$$
It's all in the dollar, as Jim Sinclair is fond of stating. Try as they may, TPTB have been trying to hold the dollar up by suppressing the gold price but the physical market is far too strong. It will be death by a thousand cuts, too many for them to stop the bleeding.

CG
Gandalf the White
(11/10/2004; 00:06:47 MDT - Msg ID: 126236)
REMINDER !!! <;-)

TAA TAA TAAAAAAAAAAAAA, TAA TAA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ A "PRICE of GOLD" GUESSING CONTEST!! $$$$$$$$$$$$

We shall have a price guessing contest on the closing (Settlement price) of gold for the December Comex contract (GC4Z) on Monday, November 15, 2004, ---BUT all entries must be posted to the TableRound before Midnight on Wednesday, November 10th.

The POG Contest winner -- the closest price guess to the actual Settlement Price -- will receive a British Queen Victoria Sovereign (which may be seen at the following LINK)
http://www.usagold.com/gold/coins/BritVict.html

(YES, the coin that EVERYONE should have in their POCKET !) <;-)

These coins were Minted between 1871 and 1901, are of a Fineness of 0.917, with an Actual Gold Content of 0.2354 troy ounce.

There will be also be two runners-up prizes for the next closest prognostications --- each winning an one ounce Canadian Silver Maple Leaf.
----

THE RULES -- (We MUST have RULES !!) --- PLEASE READ !!

1) The Winner is the poster with the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX (most active) December 2004 Gold Contract (GC4Z) on the date of Monday, November 15, 2004.

2) Secret invisable "Rule".

3) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $444.4)

4) "Guesses" shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT BOX location AND enclosed in markers of "Dollar Signs" so as to be OFFICIAL !
(Such as $$$$$$444.4 $$$$$$$ )

5) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".

6) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes MIDNIGHT (24:00) on Wednesday, November 10, 2004.

7) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY (as this part MUST accompany the Price prognostication)
--- In order for your entry to be valid, entries will need to have a paragraph or more discussing;
"Where gold is going and why". <===== NOTE !!!
---
ONLY about 24 hours to go before DEADLINE !
<;-)
Gondolin
(11/10/2004; 03:13:47 MDT - Msg ID: 126237)
$$$$433.0$$$$
Where is gold going? Hopefully around .2354 troy ounces of Sovereign is going my way at the end of this competition. One can only hope!! But in the bigger picture gold is going exactly where it should. Slowly but steadily up as the big players unwind their dollar denominated holdings into hard assets, raw materials and the new players on the block, the euro, the dinar and of course gold. More will jump aboard the upwards wave and as gold enters the second phase of the bull some more serious upwards movement will commence. Hopefully not too soon'still need to accumulate more, but I trust that it also won't take too long - want to enjoy the fruits of my most wise investment choice sooner rather than later.
Caradoc
(11/10/2004; 04:28:09 MDT - Msg ID: 126238)
A clue?
Could be just a coincidence (if you believe in coincidences regarding availability of precious metals), but it's at least "interesting" that one major dealer in precious metals is now filling orders for bags of junk silver by shipping two half bags. True, each customer has little to complain about since he's still getting $1,000 face value of 90% silver coins, but apparently the standard unit of measure isn't as available as it used to be.

Just a tiny marker along the Trail....

Caradoc

PS: If $432/433 was a resistance level for POG, it has been trampled over from both directions so thoroughly that today we're ready to go into the 440s but will probably see only a rise between 5.20 and 5.90. Even so, I suspect that we're about a month away from seeing $20 increases and $27 smash downs. Enjoy the ride!
Golden Era
(11/10/2004; 05:29:52 MDT - Msg ID: 126239)
$$$$$$439.80$$$$$$
POG will see $500 by year-end. It is the only reasonable outcome of the events surrounding the detiorating US economy. The days of fiat currency will be over sooner than many beleive. US$ is going BUST!
Ned
(11/10/2004; 05:32:45 MDT - Msg ID: 126240)
Cometose....regarding Cuba deserting USD
Thanks for the note. I picked this up this morning from another 'thread':

"So, essentially, it's U$Dollar Confiscation by Castro.

And, usually, only the most-valuable things get Confiscated."


What do you (anyone) make of this?

pilgrims_gold
(11/10/2004; 06:12:52 MDT - Msg ID: 126241)
$$$$$ 436.5 $$$$$$$
Where is going and why, hmmm. I thought gold was going to 1000 but it keeps meandering around 400. A little blow off here, a little blow off there, and its back to 375. Then oil shoots to 50 and were back to our highs for the last 8 yrs. It seems gold doesnt know where it wants to go, up today, down tomorrow. But I know where gold is going and why, its going in my pocket. You figure out why.
makcumka
(11/10/2004; 06:27:03 MDT - Msg ID: 126242)
$$$$441.1$$$$
I believe gold will move to $450 range by the end of the year and stagnate there for around 6 months or so. After that, as a response to either a new invasion, or a similar event, it willl resume its upward track.
Cometose
(11/10/2004; 07:02:37 MDT - Msg ID: 126243)
NED / CUBA/ DOLLAR CONFISCATION of value NOT
THIS Cuba thing is an advertisement as well as a piece in a manifestation of evidence around us globally.

THIS act by CUBA is not an isolated event ....Castro is connected to CHavez.....Castro is one of his mentors....
Chavez is from the Country down south that has all the OIL / I think that's Venezuala.... The administration tried dirty tricks to have him ousted.......It's happened on numerous occasions.How he escaped I don't know ...This toppling of International Leaders is a foot print of American Diplomacy for decades.....All that are familiar with history over the past 60 years are well aware of this and are fed up ...

Argentina , two months ago , in direct violation of and IMF Proscription bought and added to their currency reserves 4500 tonnes of GOLD......

CHINA has made a deal with one of these South AMerican countries (in the news this week) to use some of their dollars to lock up contracts on hard assets/ commodities.
Made a deal with IRAN TO DEVELOP OIL FIELDS.....
Iran announced softer stance on Nuclear enrichment ......so that the US doesn't go there........
to WAR OVER NUCLEAR ENRICHMENT ......

As long as the FED has the right to PRINT without Substantiating some value behind the dollar ,,the rest of the world is correct in asssessing such printing as COUNTERFIETING........and they have a right to PROTEST against the US and against US POLICY by PUBLICLY AND DEMONSTRABLY HAVING AN ANTI US DOLLAR POLICY IN THEIR COUNTRIES........

I'm sure there will be other demonstrations against the dollar and more selling of dollars because of the global perception that the US a la the FED is counterfieting and that the widespread use of dollars internationally extends far too much influence of the US via the RESERVE CURRENCY OF THE WORLD.....

Wasn't it SADAAM HUSSEIN who first declared that Iraq would no longer recieve dollars for Oil ......prior to being toppled ......

IF SOMEONE from ON HIGH said that the purpose for outlawing DOLLARS IN CUBA was a move to confiscate something of VALUE .........IT MIGHT BE SO ........
but I'd tend to believe that that statement was just good ole COUNTER INTELLIGENCE AT WORK .......for the sake of PUMPING the image of the Strong US DOLLAR for the ignorant and NAIVE listeners who heard that statement.............

I sincerely believe that the VALUABLE DOLLAR is going to be assaulted some more in the coming weeks and that it is going to bear out the adage that " Politicians and bankers make FIAT CURRENCIES approach their intrinsic worth over time by their policies." THE intrinsic value of the fiat paper money is 0.....

There's a PR battle going on now regarding the IMAGE OF THE DOLLAR and THE IMAGE OF THE US .....

THE ENEMY IS ATTACKING the IMAGE and LEGITIMACY of the US in attacking the currency of the US ....

THE DEFENDERS OF THE US AND THE DOLLAR are rebutting by making statements to the contrary and trying to put a PR WRINKLE on Cuba's actions that indicate that CASTRO did this to capture value.....

THE POLITICIANS have made diplomatic errors and the Bankers have made policy errors........
these errors undermine the strength of the currency and cause the US and the currency to have enemies and those who are undesirous of holding said currency ......
THE FIRST ENEMY of the currency were the MORONS WHO ADOPTED such PROBLEMATIC POLICIES DIPLOMATICALLY AND ECONOMICALLY.......(THOSE ENEMIES were the enemies within; BANKERS AND POLITICIANS)......THeir policies brought a second tier of enemies .........from without.......

WHEN YOU have a disease , you can medicate it , or you can eliminate the cause of the disease...that's right isolate and kill the cause of the disease......

ELIMINATE the GREED FACTOR THAT CAUSES PEOPLE TO WANT TO GO TO WASHINGTON to REPRESENT AMERICANS (LOBBYING /BRIBERY) and you are half way to winning the battle ........THEN GET RID OF THE FED .....and you pretty much eliminate the other half of the PROBLEM .......
HERE's a little LUCKY STRIKE EXTRA for all of yous.....

JOHN F KENNEDY and ABRAHAM LINCOLN have two things in common that are outstanding ........we all know that they were both assassinated........(why?)

THEY also both PRINTed MONEY or were embarking on A new MONETARY APPROACH without Fed Authority or INSTEAD of THE FED.........

THOSE TWO ENEMIES are the ENMIES of the AMERICAN PEOPLE ...
because they are making GLOBAL ENEMIES who are positioning themselves against the US and against the US people.....

IS this and accident or are these acts being orchestrated?????

Food for thought ..............

What is the long term consequence of these actions going to be ????

Interesting article this weekend by a man Named BARBERA on Financial Sense Newshour..........He had many an interesting thing to say about what we're getting ready to see globally on an economic basis and financially.......
Very ugly indeed ..........for the dollar and the US economy......

but there are ways to be working for yourself inside the current ........to protect yourself from the wealth dislocations that are coming.......

HIS TWO MAIN RECOMMENDATIONS ..........

a. foreign currencies
b. Gold, coins

Gold , GET YOU SOME!!!!!!!
It might be the safest place to harbor in the coming storm .
Great Albino Bat
(11/10/2004; 07:24:43 MDT - Msg ID: 126244)
Checking in from Buenos Aires, Argentina

The GAB met with a group of Argentinians concerned with economic matters. Argentina has shed NINE ZEROS from its currency, in the last 60 years.

I was surprised to find that no one in the group of about twelve individuals, had any knowledge about a purchase over the past year, of 55 tons of gold by the Argentine Central Bank. They were as surprised to hear of this, as I was to find them ignorant of this event which has been much commented here.

All individuals in the group, immediately suspected a shady deal.

"Is the gold here, in Buenos Aires, or is it on deposit in London or New York? Because if it is on deposit outside Argentina, then it will never be Argentinian property."

Evidently, Argentinians have absolutely zero confidence in the integrity of their politicians. "We had a Central Banker who was voted the best central banker in the world, and - he was dismissed. Surely, he was dismissed because he was a good central banker. Pratt was his name."

Mobs of men in black suits - the financial types, you can spot them a mile away - here at our hotel. Argentina is being carved up, evidently.

Item: don't expect anything different from Argentina, than what you have been seeing during the last 50 years. Sad to report this.

The GAB
Great Albino Bat
(11/10/2004; 07:32:43 MDT - Msg ID: 126245)
Castro and the Dollars in Cuba...

Very clever move by Fidel!

He took possession of the dollars in the hands of his people, which he can now use for settling international debts or for international transactions. For instance, buy more oil or repair his electricity generation facilities.

On the other hand, this is a good psy-war move against his opposition in Miami: now these Cubans have to change their dollars into Euros, in order to send funds to their relatives in Cuba. The Almighty Dollar is shown to be not so Almighty! There is an alternative to the Dollar, the Euro! Bingo! This is PSY-WAR which has the objective of demoralizing the enemy.

I don't know if Fidel thought this up, or if some advisor (most likely) suggested the move, but it seems quite effective, to me.

The GAB
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(11/10/2004; 07:33:35 MDT - Msg ID: 126246)
A risk-free request, helping you enter the gold market with grace and confidence.
http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html

Get a head start on the gold market!
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(11/10/2004; 07:37:42 MDT - Msg ID: 126247)
What you need to know before you buy your first ounce of gold...
http://www.usagold.com/cpm/goldhelp.html

Q. What makes USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals different from its competitors in terms of its interaction with clients?

MK. Our business philosophy allows us to take a more laid-back approach. We don't employ a room full of brokers spinning the phones day and night. We don't have multi-million dollar advertising expenses dictating what kind of advice we give clients. This is all by choice. I decided long ago that I didn't want the headaches that go with managing a large number of brokers and the support staff and facilities required. At the same time, we get hundreds of requests each month for introductory information packets. We do not make cold calls. We do not work mailing lists. We do not call people at all hours of the day or night. We do not use marketing and sales gimmicks -- leaders, bait and switch, and the rest of it. We primarily work with clients who have discovered us, like what they see, and want to form a long term relationship with a reputable and reliable gold firm.

Q. Does the "laid-back approach" limit your business?

MK. Yes and no. In the short run, "yes." In the long run, "no." We probably lose a few prospects to the aggressive companies which use hard-sell tactics but we will not be changing our client-friendly approach. We know that not every prospective investor is going to become a client of USAGOLD / Centennial. However, we know that the client who chooses us is likely to be the type of client we are accustomed to doing business with. We work with a large number of professional people and business owners -- active, retired and semi-retired. In fact, we work with clientele that span the economic spectrum and all walks of life. Getting back to how our approach sets us apart from our competitors, we get quite a few disgruntled high net worth clients who come to us after being run through the mill by some of the boiler-room operations I've referred to earlier. They are usually grateful that they found us.

Q. And finally, is there anything else you would like to share with us?

MK. Fundamentally, we believe that we are here to serve the client. Anyone who has done business with us will vouch for the courteous and professional service he or she has received. Our staff is carefully chosen and it shows. We get referrals on nearly a daily basis and are kept busy with strong repeat business. I would also like to call attention to the solid informational services offered at this website. We believe that any of our clients or visitors will find USAGOLD head and shoulders above anything else out there. I would encourage anyone attending this site to have a look around. We also publish a very handy e-mail newsletter available to prospective clients. Above and beyond that, the most important thing is the way we treat our clientele. From first inquiry through order fulfillment, we want to make the gold investing experience as pleasant and rewarding as possible. We have a large and satisfied clientele and that's the way we want to keep it.

TheJuniorMiner
(11/10/2004; 08:55:56 MDT - Msg ID: 126248)
$$$ 432.0 $$$
Gold will continue is slow steady grinding accent.

The US dollar is showing signs of falling apart and I expect many record lows before it bottoms. American consumers and the US government are oblivious to deficit spending. America is racking up unsustainable trade deficits. We produce so little and trade so much paper for imported goods. In the coming years foreigners will begin to understand they are being had and run for the exit.
TownCrier
(11/10/2004; 09:03:03 MDT - Msg ID: 126249)
Develop a respectful fear of easy money, choose gold for savings
Federal Reserve intervenes in open market, injects $21.5 billion

With the fed funds market trading today near 1.94 percent in anticipation of today's meeting and likely shift in FOMC policy, the Fed's trading desk conducted open market operations, providing $12.5 billion in fresh cash to the money supply to bolster reserves of the nation's banks via two-day repurchase agreements (under 1.9%), and also provided at 1.96% another $9 billion via 14-day repos.

So on, and so on it goes and ever shall...

Choose gold.

R.
YGM
(11/10/2004; 09:38:47 MDT - Msg ID: 126250)
What does US Dollar Devaluation Mean to You......
http://www.plim.org/01%20usa_dollar_devalua.htmShort & to the point...Snip..



Although many world authorities, such as the IMF (International Monetary Authority) and World Bank, said the dollar will be devalued. this has not been reported in the US media.

Effects of US Dollar decline

Formerly economic adviser to President Clinton Robert Reich said in Canada recently that the US dollar will collapse, which was not reported in the news. The devaluation of the U.S. dollar means a decline in the purchasing power of the dollar, which leads to a decline in living standard. For example, if the US dollar declines 40% and you had a million US dollars, the million dollars will only buy $600,000.00 worth of goods and services. You would have lost $400,000.00 in purchase power.

Any type of investment in dollars, such as saving accounts, saving bonds, annuities, pensions, etc., will suffer from this decline. In the coming decline of the dollar it will impoverish almost 50% of the white middle class and the other 40% will barely survive. Now between 5 -10% of Americans will prosper from this decline of the dollar because they have the knowledge of how to protect their asset........Cont'd

YGM
(11/10/2004; 09:50:05 MDT - Msg ID: 126251)
World Gold Supply Under Pressure...Says Merrill Lynch
http://sg.biz.yahoo.com/041110/15/3oel8.htmlExcerpt....

We've got a situation where the mined production of gold is going to be declining for the foreseeable future," he said.

According to London-based precious metals market consultant GFMS Ltd., global mine production in 2003 remained flat about 2,590 tons.

While there are pockets of new supply emerging in countries like Russia and China, Hambro said global output will inevitably suffer from a lack of exploration.

"One of the big changes in the mining sector as a whole has been a significant cut (in) exploration expenditure, which is obviously reducing the probability of finding new projects to exploit," he explained.

Thus, gold reserves are increasingly being mined at a faster rate than they are being replaced, Hambro said.

"For example, (Newmont Mining Corp.) has to find seven million ounces of gold a year just to stand still; in order to grow, they've got to (increase reserves) more than that," he said of the world's largest producer.

The same is true of other top producers, such as South Africa's AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. (AU), Hambro said.

"You don't find seven million ounce gold mines every day," he said.

Prospect Of Falling Central Bank Sales "Very, Very Exciting"

****This plays into Barrick Bond Issue having more to do with aquisitions than Hedges, or both....YGM
killerjay_47
(11/10/2004; 10:02:36 MDT - Msg ID: 126252)
$$$$$ 436.5 $$$$$
First post here so bear with me as I'm not nearly as well-read as some of the regulars.

I see gold continuing its rise, how high I dare not guess.
Recently, gold has been following the dollar very closely; one article I read whose link I have lost stated that the correlation between the dollar and gold's spot has been about 0.9. To state in simpler terms, for a 5% drop in the dollar, gold has risen 5%. The article said that this high correlation between the dollar and gold has only been seen once before, somtime in the 70's. Looking at gold's price in Euros and Canadian dollars (yes, I live north of the border) we see very little change for about a year now. So in this respect gold has been trading like a currency of late.

As such I believe that in the short term (although not necessarily right away) gold will see a backing off in price as the dollar has a minor strengthening. It will be short-lived as the value of the dollar erodes to where it should be, 0, sending PoG to the heavenly levels it belongs. Eventually the rest of the currencies in the world that are not backed by hard assets will follow.

This is, of course, all pure speculation on my part and is mostly a gut reaction rather than a result of careful analysis or in-depth study. Either way, the collapse of the US dollar is imminent or happening. What else can you expect with deficits averaging $1.6 billion a day, and consumers who spend $1.04 for every $1 they earn?

Here's to the lovely yellow metal.

J
killerjay_47
(11/10/2004; 10:06:00 MDT - Msg ID: 126253)
$$$$$ 436.0 $$$$$
Having foolishly missed pilgrims_gold's prediction and duplicating it, I wish to revise my prediction. Apologies all around.

J
Gandalf the White
(11/10/2004; 10:07:25 MDT - Msg ID: 126254)
WELCOME Sir Killerjay_47
Join in anytime !
<;-)
Gandalf the White
(11/10/2004; 10:12:12 MDT - Msg ID: 126255)
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ THE "PRICE of GOLD" GUESSING CONTEST!! $$$$$$$$$$$$

TAA TAA TAAAAAAAAAAAAA, TAA TAA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !

Entries as of WEDNESDAY 11/10/04 at just about 10:07 Denver time !!!
ONLY about FOURTEEN HOURS to go BEFORE ENTRY DEADLINE !!!!!


OFFICIAL ENTRY LISTING

Listed in order of decreasing values !
----

$$$ $8,752.0 $$$ The Invisible Hand (11/6/04; 02:45:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 126118)

$$$$ $575.2 $$$$ Sprout (11/5/04; 15:19:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 126103)

$$$$ $499.0 $$$$ Caradoc (11/6/04; 04:35:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 126120)

$$$$ $467.0 $$$$ jenika (11/6/04; 05:55:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 126122)

$$$$ $456.5 $$$$ Gene (11/5/04; 11:03:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 126096)

$$$$ $454.5 $$$$ mackattack (11/6/04; 18:24:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 126127)

$$$$ $451.6 $$$$ mikal (11/5/04; 13:35:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 126099)

$$$$ $450.1 $$$$ Cometose (11/7/04; 13:14:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 126136)
$$$$ $450.0 $$$$ Lothar of the Hill People (11/5/04; 14:19:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 126101)
$$$$ $449.9 $$$$ slingshot (11/8/04; 16:12:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 126172)

$$$$ $448.8 $$$$ Toolie (11/7/04; 14:32:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 126137)

$$$$ $448.1 $$$$ Buongiorno! (11/9/04; 10:25:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 126196)

$$$$ $447.5 $$$$ Waverider (11/07/04; 01:23:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 126130)

$$$$ $446.9 $$$$ HOOSIER GOLDBUG (11/9/04; 15:27:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 126211)

$$$$ $446.3 $$$$ Sundeck (11/6/04; 04:20:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 126119)

$$$$ $445.2 $$$$ J-Bullion (11/8/04; 14:12:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 126167)

$$$$ $444.5 $$$$ DoubleEagle (11/8/04; 02:27:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 126152)
$$$$ $444.4 $$$$ Zhisheng (11/4/04; 10:56:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 126063)
$$$$ $441.1 $$$$ makcumka (11/10/04; 06:27:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 126242)
$$$$ $444.0 $$$$ Shapur (11/9/04; 13:22:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 126204)

$$$$ $443.2 $$$$ Rimh (11/9/04; 09:45:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 126188)

$$$$ $442.5 $$$$ Noble1 (11/5/04; 18:23:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 126110)

$$$$ $441.7 $$$$ Smeagol (11/5/04; 17:15:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 126105)

$$$$ $440.8 $$$$ Shermag (11/9/04; 11:36:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 126199)

$$$$ $440.0 $$$$ shawnis (11/8/04; 20:28:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 126175)

$$$$ $439.8 $$$$ Golden Era (11/10/04; 05:29:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 126239)

$$$$ $439.6 $$$$ Rustee (11/5/04; 09:02:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 126086)

$$$$ $439.2 $$$$ Goldendome (11/9/04; 21:38:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 126230)

$$$$ $438.9 $$$$ Liberty Head (11/5/04; 21:37:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 126116)
$$$$ $438.8 $$$$ Rocky (11/9/04; 17:52:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 126218)

$$$$ $438.2 $$$$ glockmaster19 (11/9/04; 16:05:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 126213)

$$$$ $437.7 $$$$ Canuck Gold (11/9/04; 22:40:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 126234)

$$$$ $437.5 $$$$ Felix the Cat (11/9/04; 19:53:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 126222)

$$$$ $436.5 $$$$ pilgrims_gold (11/10/04; 06:12:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 126241)

$$$$ $436.0 $$$$ killerjay_47 (11/10/04; 10:06:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 126253)

$$$$ $435.5 $$$$ YGM (11/7/04; 09:39:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 126133)

$$$$ $434.5 $$$$ balzac (11/9/04; 09:58:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 126190)

$$$$ $433,3 $$$$ Shanti (11/8/04; 14:53:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 126169)

$$$$ $433.0 $$$$ Gondolin (11/10/04; 03:13:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 126237)

$$$$ $432.5 $$$$ John the Jute (11/9/04; 08:41:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 126187)

$$$$ $432.0 $$$$ TheJuniorMiner (11/10/04; 08:55:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 126248)

$$$$ $431.6 $$$$ servantHeart (11/5/04; 10:26:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 126092)

$$$$ $431.0 $$$$ DryWasher (11/4/04; 16:13:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 126074

$$$$ $429.5 $$$$ The Hoople (11/9/04; 12:08:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 126200)
$$$$ $429.4 $$$$ Legolas (11/9/04; 20:49:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 126226)

$$$$ $429.1 $$$$ mudr (11/7/04; 21:59:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 126147)

$$$$ $427.0 $$$$ Clink! (11/7/04; 12:25:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 126135)

$$$$ $426.5 $$$$ Topaz (11/4/04; 16:13:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 126075)

$$$$ $422.3 $$$$ The Knife (11/5/04; 10:03:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 126089)

$$$$ $419.5 $$$$ Golden Lionheart (11/7/04; 17:13:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 126140)

$$$$ $000.0 $$$$ TomJIl (11/6/04; 16:21:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 126126)

===
<;-)

TownCrier
(11/10/2004; 10:38:16 MDT - Msg ID: 126256)
Worried that you already missed the boat?
http://www.usagold.com/gold-price.htmlLook at it this way. For the past four years, some people have been sidelined as often as not by the thought that they've already missed the boat whenever they tune in and see that gold has enjoyed a price run-up. However, time and time again we see that these attention-getting "paralyzing peaks of the day" become shortly thereafter the woulda-coulda-shoulda entry point that sidelined investors yearn for as they find themselves yet again paralyzed by the next higher peak of the day in our continuing saga as the world transitions out of the international-reserve-dollar regime.

One look at the charts will lead an objective witness to this current period of history-in-the-making to admit that FOA was right, and that truly we cannot even begin to fathom how high the price of physical gold will run as the books are all rebalanced and rewritten.

Please, for the sake of your family and your own future financial well being, hear me now. If you haven't already, diversify your holdings with gold, and do it on a level commensurate with your understanding of the unfolding socio-political and economic forces now at work. Don't wait for higher prices ahead, serving only to make you regret further your inaction of the past.

Like any mountian, there are many possible views available, and many ways to discuss getting to the top, but the reality is that there is only ONE way for you to get there, and that is to BEGIN the process. Sure it's tough, but isn't that always the nature of action? It is always easier just to look and to talk and to simply marvel at the others who are already ahead owing solely to their own firm commitment to begin to take action.

Help is as easy as a toll free call away.
1-800-869-5115 (dial extention 100 -- for the friendly guy manning the trading desk)

Why the steady drumbeat? Because there are new arrivals every day that need to hear what many of you here already know.

R.
Boilermaker
(11/10/2004; 10:49:18 MDT - Msg ID: 126257)
MK....Barrick Bonds
http://www.barrick.com/3_Financials/Your question..."How much do you think the Barrick $1 billion bond offer (and Placer's equity offer) has to do with gold breaking above the $430 mark?"

Looking at pages 23 & 24 of Barrick's most recent quarterly report gives me the impression they're really sweating the prospect of higher gold prices and gold lease rates negatively affecting their hedge book mark-to-market. The bond cash will probably be used to accelerate their buyback program. This will be bullish for gold as it occurs.

Also keep in mind that Barrick has some covenents in their lease terms that specify..... "Our trading agreements with our counterparties do provide for early close out of certain transactions in the event of a material negative change in our ability to produce gold for delivery under our hedging agreements, or a lack of gold market, and for customary events of default such as covenant breaches, insolvency or bankruptcy. The significant financial covenants are:
Barrick must maintain a minimum consolidated net worth of at least US$2 billion � currently, it is US$3.5 billion.
Barrick must maintain a maximum long-term debt to consolidated net worth ratio of 1.5:1 � currently, it is under 0.25:1. "

I don't think that Barrick will be in the market for aquisitions, more likely they will be selling assets to raise cash.


The Hoople
(11/10/2004; 11:31:16 MDT - Msg ID: 126258)
MK
While this is only speculative I remember when Shell Oil fessed up and admitted they had vastly overstated proven oil reserves. Their stock took a huge hit and analysts were shaken at whether this could be just the tip of the iceberg. (I personally believe it was) If Barrick were to be fudging gold deposits to stay in loan covenant agreements I would think they'd know full well the ramification to the gold market. All estimated gold deposits would be scrutinized. Hedgebooks would become incredibly toxic. Little observed yet duly noted is how much the POO has went up since the Shell announcement. That corresponding rise in POG would have to be calamitous to a few hedgebooks. If I remember correctly Barrick did report decreased gold production and blamed it on unusual events. My guess is a billion dollars of bonds buys some time. I don't see this as an optional loan, but one of necessity. Whether it is to protect the hedgebook a while longer or to scuttle it as quickly as possible I think there is a gold Hubbert's Peak coming.
innerline
(11/10/2004; 11:35:49 MDT - Msg ID: 126259)
$$$$ 437.0 $$$$
Gold is getting jumpy. It is a war zone. Swings only to get bigger.
White Hills
(11/10/2004; 11:52:24 MDT - Msg ID: 126260)
$$$$438.50$$$$
Although the long term decline seems certain, I don't see a "crash" but rather a slow up and down movement on the Comex. Remember the Comex is a paper price that may or may not have very much correlation with the true value of gold. One thing is certain you must diversify your asset into Hard assets such as gold, property and other investments that will track the fall of the dollar. I don't expect any sudden moves by the goverment until after the inauguration of President Bush. After that it is anybodies guess as to what will happen. Clearly it is evident that the current monetary system is in its death throes and something will have to be done. Until then Gold is the thing to buy. White Hills
Tevye
(11/10/2004; 12:36:10 MDT - Msg ID: 126261)
$$$$ 434.3 $$$$
We should see a little upside tomorrow and perhaps Friday. Then begins the struggle to suppress the paper price before options expiry (on the 23rd I think); a tradition I don't like. Net efect from today till Monday: not much or perhaps down a bit. $$$$ 434.3 $$$$

FWIW I expect something in the 4-teens within two weeks.
Then we resume the unstoppable seesaw march up. Think 450+ for Christmas.

Gold. Its a good Tradition!

Tevye
Federal_Reserves
(11/10/2004; 12:55:18 MDT - Msg ID: 126262)
Continue to hold your gold bullion
FED stayed behind the curve again today, and refused to acknowledge rising inflation, and made no mention of the trade of fiscal deficits. Also the war in Iraq continues on, with a violent new phase. Al Greenspan will be retiring soon, and will probably be replaced by a Bush money pumper willing to support the status quo and a raid on the social security fund!


All conditions remain excellent for gold!

TownCrier
(11/10/2004; 13:55:51 MDT - Msg ID: 126263)
FOMC does as expected, fed funds target rate raised 25 bp
http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/press/monetary/2004/20041110/default.htmHere is the FOMC statement:

Release Date: November 10, 2004

The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to raise its target for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 2 percent.

The Committee believes that, even after this action, the stance of monetary policy remains accommodative and, coupled with robust underlying growth in productivity, is providing ongoing support to economic activity. Output appears to be growing at a moderate pace despite the rise in energy prices, and labor market conditions have improved. Inflation and longer-term inflation expectations remain well contained.

The Committee perceives the upside and downside risks to the attainment of both sustainable growth and price stability for the next few quarters to be roughly equal. With underlying inflation expected to be relatively low, the Committee believes that policy accommodation can be removed at a pace that is likely to be measured. Nonetheless, the Committee will respond to changes in economic prospects as needed to fulfill its obligation to maintain price stability.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Alan Greenspan, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Ben S. Bernanke; Susan S. Bies; Roger W. Ferguson, Jr.; Edward M. Gramlich; Thomas M. Hoenig; Donald L. Kohn; Cathy E. Minehan; Mark W. Olson; Sandra Pianalto; and William Poole.

In a related action, the Board of Governors unanimously approved a 25 basis point increase in the discount rate to 3 percent. In taking this action, the Board approved the requests submitted by the Boards of Directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago, St. Louis, Minneapolis, and Kansas City.

----(at url)----

Consider, if the dollar were "strong", rates would not be rising. And more to the point, rates raises won't bring strength either. "Strength" per se comes from structural elements of the nation's economy and from having its fiscal house in good order. Higher rates are in this case more properly seen as a compensating enticement for others to continue holding the dollar bravely (or naively) in the face of impending depreciation. In the mainstream media this is pitched positively as an inflation-fighting tool to an audience that too often sadly tries to interpret that device as a sign of imminent currency strength. Structurally, however, the U.S. is not in a position to deliver that package.

Onward and downward for the dollar it is.

Choose gold.

R.
Camel
(11/10/2004; 14:16:44 MDT - Msg ID: 126264)
$$$$$$$$ 435.0 $$$$$$$
As the invisible hand of the corporate oligarchs leads the country to ruin and Bush does for Social Security what Reagan did for energy conservation the trickle of dollar conversions will tuns into flood and gold will soar.
otish mountain
(11/10/2004; 14:19:43 MDT - Msg ID: 126265)
Prospect Of Falling Central Bank Sales "Very, Very Exciting"
http://sg.biz.yahoo.com/041110/15/3oel8.htmlYGM: The second part of your link needs attention as well.

Where is the 500 tons per annum going to come from? They could of said the limit would be put up to 1000 tons per year and it would not make a hill of beans difference.

So who has announced gold sales within the agreement so far? I've heard Belgium and Austria partaking so far. Well of the markof 500 tons per year.

Swiss sales of 1300 tons draws to a close sometime in March /05

The Central Banks role of talking down the price of gold may be going to the wayside unless they buck up with solid commitments to the WA II.

Is this the line in the sand?
USAGOLD Daily Market Report
(11/10/2004; 14:56:36 MDT - Msg ID: 126266)
Page Update!
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Daily Gold Market Report has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.

---- closing market excerpts -----

Gold futures up in after-hours trading

Gold futures strengthened in after-hours trading Wednesday, but indexes for the metals sector remained lower after the Federal Reserve did the expected in raising U.S. interest rates to 2 percent, and signaled that further rate hikes can be expected.

Following the news, gold for December delivery climbed as high as $435.30. The Comex contract had closed out the regular session -- ahead of the Fed decision -- with a $1.70 loss at $434.50.

From here, gold may see some profit taking, but for the longer term,"investors will be lining up to buy dips," said John Person, president of National Futures Advisory Service.

Earlier Wednesday, the dollar fell to a fresh record low against the euro as a government report showing a smaller U.S. trade deficit only encouraged a fresh round of buying of Europe's shared currency.

"While this morning's [U.S.] trade number ($51.6 billion in September) was a little softer than expected, it still points to a worrisome deficit that the gold market receives support from," said Peter Grandich, editor of The Grandich Letter.

Looking ahead, John Stafford, editor of Strafford's Investment Strategy Letter, set out a short-term target range on gold at $450 to $500, "perhaps" setting the stage for a $1,000-an-ounce price by the early 2010s or sooner.

"The U.S. dollar is bound to lose at least 90 percent of its PPV (purchasing power value) by 2042," he said. "This is set in cement, and is as a result of deliberate [Fed] policies," he said.

Many analysts expect gold prices to continue their climb, but they warned traders to be wary of a high degree of volatility along the way.

Elsewhere on the metals market Wednesday, the direction was lower. In equities, metals mining shares lost ground after ending Wednesday's session on a mixed note.

-----(see url for access to full news, 24-hr international newswire)----
TownCrier
(11/10/2004; 15:32:38 MDT - Msg ID: 126267)
Dubai, "City of Gold", to become "City of MORE Gold aaaaaaaannnd.... 'Paper Gold', Too!"
http://www.mineweb.net/sections/gold_silver/389569.htmHEADLINE: Dubai's new exchange promises
By: Rhona O'Connell

10-NOV-04 LONDON (Mineweb.com) -- More electronic trading is on its way in the precious metals and other commodity markets. While London is the centre of the world's physical and Over the Counter market, the established futures Exchanges for gold contracts are around the world in New York (COMEX), Tokyo (TOCOM) and the Istanbul Gold Exchange. ... And now the Gulf is about to establish its presence. There are a number of very determined players in Dubai, intent on building the emirate's position in any number of markets, but in the commodities in particular. There are dealers sitting in the Gulf who have every intention of challenging London for supremacy.

Dubai, already responsible for 20% of the world's physical trade in gold (and aiming for a much higher market share in the medium term), is to establish a home for gold futures and options trading.

The Dubai Government this week announced the formation of the Dubai Gold and Commodity Exchange (DGCX), with a view to facilitating the trade of gold and commodities.

...Given the size of the physical market that passes through Dubai there is a logical synergy between the concept of a futures market, to enable hedging transactions and the long-standing close working relationship between India and Dubai means that this is a natural partnership. The establishment of a commodities exchange is a logical development in the series of initiatives that the government has been rolling out as part of the drive to establish Dubai as one of the world's key trading and business centres...
[R. note: I can think of some who might contestibly argue the validity of the logic being claimed here in the article.]

The next point of interest will be to see how the contracts are designed and their fungibility with other exchanges around the world � including Shanghai, which at present is only trading in physical gold, but which is planning to develop futures contracts.

So Dubai, City of Gold, continues to carve its place at the commodity markets� table. No doubt there are plenty more fresh initiatives to follow as the local gold market players follow their determination to rival London.

-----(from url)-----

The concluding remarks beg the all-important question, is the intent to work WITH London, or against them.

If it is the later case, the delicate game ends sooner as the confidence spell is broken. If one set of papers in Dubai is not convertible directly and easily into another set of papers in London, how can any rational person accept the claim that either one of them are "good as gold"?

Physical gold demand ramps up in response to paper losing ground in its long battle for integrity.

R.
R Powell
(11/10/2004; 15:50:47 MDT - Msg ID: 126268)
$$$$$$$ 433.8 $$$$$$
Imho the immediate and long term POG may be more influenced by investor sentiment than any fundamentals concerning supply and demand. These (fears), caused by so many outside concerns, have been supporting gold and may be enough to trigger some serious speculative money to buy (in the paper market). I wish I knew how much physical is changing hands but such numbers (and the specific players) are hard to find. When/if this serious speculation occurs, the POG may stop lollygagging between the high 300s and the low to mid 400s and make a noteworthy upside move. But the very long term outlook is both up and down, with higher highs and higher lows. Just one poor man's opinion.
Gandalf the White
(11/10/2004; 16:08:18 MDT - Msg ID: 126269)
TODAY's -----"KING of the HILL" -----report ! <;-)

COMEX December '04 Gold Contract (GCZ04)
Open = $437.8 HIGH = $438.1 low = $432.8
SETTLEMENT = $434.5 CHANGE -$1.7
===
AND the "KING of the HILL" today is:
TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

Sir Balzac (who hit it right on the nose !) <;-)

Very difficult to hit that MOVING target after AG spoke !
$$$$ $434.5 $$$$ (11/9/04; 09:58:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 126190)
goldenpeace
(11/10/2004; 16:18:27 MDT - Msg ID: 126270)
$$$$$$$436.8$$$$$$$$$
it's all in the deteriorating $...though the cappers are still at it in gold.......You know it's just a matter of time when the Columbians will issue peso bonds to be paid back in U.S. Dollars.
Bowing
Blessings to the forum and our Host
goldenpeace
Tranquility Base
(11/10/2004; 17:50:58 MDT - Msg ID: 126271)
$$$$$$$$424.2$$$$$$$
With a calm confidence I believe that gold will move higher based on the invaluable resource that I have here at this mighty oaken table. Occassionally that confidence becomes an exuberance much as I am experiencing now. When that occurs I have to brace myself for a correction. Therefore I feel that there may be some short term consolidation before moving on upward. Besides that I wanted to just one time make my guess lower than Sir Topaz.
Tranquility Base here
The eagle has landed
Dollar Bill
(11/10/2004; 17:58:04 MDT - Msg ID: 126272)
$$452.7$$
Where is gold going and why?
Except for the jewelry and industrial crowd, gold is going to those that see the Fiat thing is off the rails.
The fiat thing is outside of the textbook rules, outside of the farthest reaches by far of John Law. Outside all comprehendable numbers. Infinite debt is on the horizon and the central banks are not blinking.............yet.
Between a rock and a hard place, the central bankers, are on a wing and a prayer, but I am guessing the prayer part is missing.
Do they even have a prayer?
And, that is the.......why.
Gondolin
(11/10/2004; 18:19:51 MDT - Msg ID: 126273)
Charts
I recall some time ago seeing a chart of the Dow over 30 yrs which shows a picture that you never get to see anywhere. Does anyone know a site that I can go to that has the dow back that far, most i've found only go back 5 to 10 years. Thanks in advance if anyone can assist.
Gandalf the White
(11/10/2004; 18:38:18 MDT - Msg ID: 126274)
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ THE "PRICE of GOLD" GUESSING CONTEST!! $$$$$$$$$$$$

TAA TAA TAAAAAAAAAAAAA, TAA TAA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !

Entries as of WEDNESDAY 11/10/04 at just about 18:30 Denver time !!!

ONLY about FIVE and one-half (5 1/2) HOURS to go BEFORE ENTRY DEADLINE !!!!!


OFFICIAL ENTRY LISTING

Listed in order of decreasing values !
----

$$$ $8,752.0 $$$ The Invisible Hand (11/6/04; 02:45:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 126118)

$$$$ $575.2 $$$$ Sprout (11/5/04; 15:19:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 126103)

$$$$ $499.0 $$$$ Caradoc (11/6/04; 04:35:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 126120)

$$$$ $467.0 $$$$ jenika (11/6/04; 05:55:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 126122)

$$$$ $456.5 $$$$ Gene (11/5/04; 11:03:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 126096)

$$$$ $454.5 $$$$ mackattack (11/6/04; 18:24:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 126127)

$$$$ $452.7 $$$$ Dollar Bill (11/10/04; 17:58:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 126272)

$$$$ $451.6 $$$$ mikal (11/5/04; 13:35:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 126099)

$$$$ $450.1 $$$$ Cometose (11/7/04; 13:14:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 126136)
$$$$ $450.0 $$$$ Lothar of the Hill People (11/5/04; 14:19:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 126101)
$$$$ $449.9 $$$$ slingshot (11/8/04; 16:12:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 126172)

$$$$ $448.8 $$$$ Toolie (11/7/04; 14:32:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 126137)

$$$$ $448.1 $$$$ Buongiorno! (11/9/04; 10:25:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 126196)

$$$$ $447.5 $$$$ Waverider (11/07/04; 01:23:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 126130)

$$$$ $446.9 $$$$ HOOSIER GOLDBUG (11/9/04; 15:27:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 126211)

$$$$ $446.3 $$$$ Sundeck (11/6/04; 04:20:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 126119)

$$$$ $445.2 $$$$ J-Bullion (11/8/04; 14:12:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 126167)

$$$$ $444.5 $$$$ DoubleEagle (11/8/04; 02:27:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 126152)
$$$$ $444.4 $$$$ Zhisheng (11/4/04; 10:56:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 126063)
$$$$ $441.1 $$$$ makcumka (11/10/04; 06:27:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 126242)
$$$$ $444.0 $$$$ Shapur (11/9/04; 13:22:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 126204)

$$$$ $443.2 $$$$ Rimh (11/9/04; 09:45:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 126188)

$$$$ $442.5 $$$$ Noble1 (11/5/04; 18:23:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 126110)

$$$$ $441.7 $$$$ Smeagol (11/5/04; 17:15:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 126105)

$$$$ $440.8 $$$$ Shermag (11/9/04; 11:36:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 126199)

$$$$ $440.0 $$$$ shawnis (11/8/04; 20:28:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 126175)

$$$$ $439.8 $$$$ Golden Era (11/10/04; 05:29:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 126239)

$$$$ $439.6 $$$$ Rustee (11/5/04; 09:02:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 126086)

$$$$ $439.2 $$$$ Goldendome (11/9/04; 21:38:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 126230)

$$$$ $438.9 $$$$ Liberty Head (11/5/04; 21:37:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 126116)
$$$$ $438.8 $$$$ Rocky (11/9/04; 17:52:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 126218)

$$$$ $438.5 $$$$ White Hills (11/10/04; 11:52:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 126260)

$$$$ $438.2 $$$$ glockmaster19 (11/9/04; 16:05:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 126213)

$$$$ $437.7 $$$$ Canuck Gold (11/9/04; 22:40:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 126234)

$$$$ $437.5 $$$$ Felix the Cat (11/9/04; 19:53:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 126222)

$$$$ $437.0 $$$$ innerline (11/10/04; 11:35:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 126259)

$$$$ $436.5 $$$$ pilgrims_gold (11/10/04; 06:12:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 126241)

$$$$ $436.0 $$$$ killerjay_47 (11/10/04; 10:06:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 126253)

$$$$ $435.5 $$$$ YGM (11/7/04; 09:39:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 126133)

$$$$ $435.0 $$$$ Camel (11/10/04; 14:16:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 126264)

$$$$ $434.5 $$$$ balzac (11/9/04; 09:58:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 126190)

$$$$ $434.3 $$$$ Tevye (11/10/04; 12:36:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 126261)

$$$$ $433.8 $$$$ R Powell (11/10/04; 15:50:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 126268)

$$$$ $433,3 $$$$ Shanti (11/8/04; 14:53:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 126169)

$$$$ $433.0 $$$$ Gondolin (11/10/04; 03:13:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 126237)

$$$$ $432.5 $$$$ John the Jute (11/9/04; 08:41:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 126187)

$$$$ $432.0 $$$$ TheJuniorMiner (11/10/04; 08:55:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 126248)

$$$$ $431.6 $$$$ servantHeart (11/5/04; 10:26:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 126092)

$$$$ $431.0 $$$$ DryWasher (11/4/04; 16:13:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 126074

$$$$ $429.5 $$$$ The Hoople (11/9/04; 12:08:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 126200)
$$$$ $429.4 $$$$ Legolas (11/9/04; 20:49:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 126226)

$$$$ $429.1 $$$$ mudr (11/7/04; 21:59:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 126147)

$$$$ $427.0 $$$$ Clink! (11/7/04; 12:25:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 126135)

$$$$ $426.5 $$$$ Topaz (11/4/04; 16:13:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 126075)

$$$$ $424.2 $$$$ Tranquility Base (11/10/04; 17:50:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 126271)

$$$$ $422.3 $$$$ The Knife (11/5/04; 10:03:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 126089)

$$$$ $419.5 $$$$ Golden Lionheart (11/7/04; 17:13:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 126140)

$$$$ $000.0 $$$$ TomJIl (11/6/04; 16:21:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 126126)

===
<;-)

Arcticfox
(11/10/2004; 18:39:50 MDT - Msg ID: 126275)
Anyone know what to make of the last paragraph?
U.S. trade gap shrinks to $51.6 billion

By Rex Nutting, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 10:17 AM ET Nov. 10, 2004

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - A strong euro and a strong hurricane helped cut the U.S. trade deficit by 3.7 percent to $51.6 billion in September.

Imports fell 0.8 percent to $149 billion while exports increased 0.8 percent to a record $97.5 billion, the Commerce Department estimated Wednesday�.

Despite higher prices, the nation's bill for imported crude oil fell to $11.4 billion because imports were disrupted for a time by a powerful hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico.

The trade deficit with the European Union declined 20 percent to $7.7 billion, while the gap with euro countries plunged 29 percent to $5.7 billion. The value of the euro has strengthened against the dollar, reducing the relative competitiveness of European goods.

Meanwhile, the trade gap with China widened to a record $15.5 billion behind record imports of $18.4 billion.

Economists polled by CBS MarketWatch were expecting, on average, a trade gap of $53.8 billion.

The trade report helped propel the euro briefly above $1.30 for the first time.

"The underlying trends here remain unfavorable but the data from recent months suggest import growth is slowing a bit more than exports," said Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist for High Frequency Economics.

The trade gap in August was revised lower to $53.5 billion from $54 billion earlier. The deficit averaged $51.9 billion per month in the third quarter.

The increase in U.S. exports was largely driven by foods and feeds, and industrial materials, including soybeans, organic chemicals, gold and plastics. Exports of capital goods also increased, especially high-tech gear like computers and semiconductors�

7nomads
(11/10/2004; 18:42:12 MDT - Msg ID: 126276)
$$$$$424.5$$$$
Last pull back to help out the shorts. Then the rocket will be up as funds turn bullish.

Cometose
(11/10/2004; 18:50:17 MDT - Msg ID: 126277)
GONDOLIN/ DOW CHART
http://www.futuresource.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=DJY&o=&a=M&z=800x550&d=HIGH&b=bar&st=There's your chart and it's a beauty .....very telling looking at it in this light.
Gandalf the White
(11/10/2004; 18:56:37 MDT - Msg ID: 126278)
$$$$ $442.1 $$$$
FINALLY the Hobbits have come to an AGREEMENT !
They have decided that I should enter their "AGREEMENT" number in the POG contest ! They concurred that Sir Smeagol is a good "Trail GUIDE" and that Sir Noble1 is always near to my thinking, SOOO, they determined that they should be near those numbers, soooo after a number of flips of the (golden) coin, they chose $442.1 --- THAT is "why" I am submitting that number in the POG Contest !
<;-)
wehappyfew
(11/10/2004; 19:27:47 MDT - Msg ID: 126279)
$$$$$$$ 425.5 $$$$$$$
Gold will go where it always goes - carrying wealth into the future. It is the only means of transporting wealth that can be relied upon to work in the dimension of time. Measured against other real assets, it will continue to slowly rise and fall, as it has for millenia. Measured against fiat currency, it will continue to add zeroes, as it always has.

In the short run, meaning Monday, I'm hoping for a small correction to hit my target. That will gain me a freebie bit of metal, and the opportunity to convert more hard-earned wealth into a time-portable form.
goldquest
(11/10/2004; 19:38:06 MDT - Msg ID: 126280)
$$$$439.40$$$$
My enthusiasm for gold is only excelled by my wife's positive outlook for gold. She says that gold will continue to go up and that the winning guess for the contest is $439.40, and dagnabit, that's what i'm guessing!!!! And yes, if she is right, she will get the coveted prize!
mikal
(11/10/2004; 19:52:45 MDT - Msg ID: 126281)
New Exchange
http://www.tax-news.com/asp/story/story.asp?storyname=17890New Dubai Gold and Commodities Exchange Scheduled For 2005
by Lorys Charalambous, Cyprus, Tax-News.com, November 10, 2005
Tiburon
(11/10/2004; 20:20:21 MDT - Msg ID: 126282)
$$$423.2$$$
Thanks to Gandalf for his compliments on my 'doorstop' :-)(bought at $409 btw, early spring - and I WILL ring through to USAGold as suggested)...and to Dollar Bill for insights into Israel's potential as a safe haven for wealth - would only that the Gang of Law in command there, would remember their Birthright (and Free Markets!)

Regards my prognostication though, (my first-time guess) I note the Rules say one must defend one's quote, not necessarily make any sense, and so I'll sally forth: -

I see test of a POG bottom coming, relative to the heights to be scaled by early '05. General investor awareness of the future of POO will grow, and with POO now slightly softening and the Sept trade deficit figures positive, fund investors will tend towards a play in the energy sector. This will see a short round of profit taking in the Gold markets, but continued upward pressures on POO and weakening of the refi housing markets will continue to weigh heavily on the dollar, and POG will then soon correct to historical average relative POO as the dollar finds it's 'true value', and far far beyond - as first institutional investors turn to follow the Bull, and then common investors see the parabola and rush to come on board. (7Nomads said it better - "Last pull back to help out the shorts. Then the rocket will be up as funds turn bullish.")

How's that sound, for a tyro?
timbervision
(11/10/2004; 20:23:12 MDT - Msg ID: 126283)
$$$$$$433.5$$$$$
Gold is going higher...in U.S. dollars. In Canadian dollars it has mostly flatlined, even trending downwards all year. There is no doubt though that the Canadian dollar will eventually cleave away from its shadowing of gold and follow the U.S. dollar down. Until then, its great to be able to buy gold at similar or cheaper prices as compared to the last few years.
Wky_Woodsman
(11/10/2004; 20:43:41 MDT - Msg ID: 126284)
Contest
$$$$$$429.9$$$$$$
Gold is there in your hand, unchanging. Neither Up nor Down.

It is the dollar that is slipping in confidence. Those precious ounces this evening are the same as they were last night, last week, last year ......
If you have them, then you rest soundly, and there is no fear of inflation or deflation.

GOLDistruth!
NTgeo
(11/10/2004; 20:52:04 MDT - Msg ID: 126285)
$$$$428.4$$$$
I suspect gold is due for a fall in the short term with the ECB buying dollars to stop the inevitable rise of the Euro. In the longer term gold will continue to strengthen due to the fall in the $US, flat mine supply and reduced central bank sales.
Black Blade
(11/10/2004; 20:57:42 MDT - Msg ID: 126286)
$$$$$ 434.00 $$$$$$$

The US dollar is getting hammered and will continue to crumbled under the persisent weight of the twin deficits. In effect, it's "Game Over" for the US dollar. The FOMC announcement today was a "deafening silience" about the real issues at hand and thrown in the towel. Gold will therefore continue to climb higher.

- Black Blade
GratefulForGold
(11/10/2004; 21:01:04 MDT - Msg ID: 126287)
$$$$$447.30$$$$$

I specifically chose a number just below Lady Waverider's choice to try to indicate my support of her in her very difficult time. I would rather gold go sub-300 than win this contest, if it meant Lady W having her brother home, safe and sound.

Alas, too often the choice is not ours to make. Which is also why I firmly believe gold, ultimately, has nowhere to go but up (in fiat terms). Those who are making the choices for this world leave us few, if any, options...except gold.

Bless you, Lady Waverider, our prayers reach out to you and yours.

Lady GFG
Druid
(11/10/2004; 21:31:36 MDT - Msg ID: 126288)
$$$$441.00$$$$

Gold, in the short term (five days), is going higher because, well, the dartboard came up $441.00 even. However, over the medium term (next couple of years), the price of physical gold as represented in dollars will, in my opinion, catch quite a few of us off guard.

As it becomes oh so obvious to both foreign and local investors that our trade and budget deficits are structural in design and not cyclical, and that, the much touted dollar devaluation concept as a solution will not work and only lead to more loss of purchasing power of their dollar reserves/investments, these investors won't be able to point and click their way fast enough toward real wealth GOLD.

They'll be mentally tripping over themselves to bypass the unit of account and medium of exchange notions of "money" to get too the REAL STORE OF VALUE PART real quick like.
Yes, as monetary inflation begins to take hold and ramp up, thank goodness for modern technology as we won't need to use wheelbarrows for other then their intended use.


Many many thanks to MK for the autographed book and to CPM for providing this wonderful venue.
LimitUp
(11/10/2004; 21:44:06 MDT - Msg ID: 126289)
$$$$$$$$$$$$$1200.00$$$$$$$$$$$
Sent a ratcoon to heaven this morning because the critter ate our 12 "gold" fish. So in memory of our departed, beloved fish I chose $1200.
Waverider
(11/10/2004; 22:37:08 MDT - Msg ID: 126290)
Limit up...
Maybe my stress and anguish is such at the moment that my humor has gone downright wonky, but your beloved Goldfish in heaven....we found out today that my brother, a commercial fisherman, did not survive a tragic marine accident earlier this week off the west coast. He too is in heaven.....

Sister Grateful for Gold - you're a gem and your words touch my heart.
phil288
(11/10/2004; 22:55:09 MDT - Msg ID: 126291)
lady waverider
My condolences on your recent loss, suddenly the price of gold is no longer relevant today. Regards
GoldCoaster
(11/10/2004; 22:57:27 MDT - Msg ID: 126292)
$$$$$430.20$$$$$$
Your Gold will continue to go up as your dollar will continue to go down.Our dollar will continue to go up and our Gold will continue to stick around the 570 - 600 level.
One day,and I feel its in the near future,Gold will do the same everywhere.
My guess has recently seen a bit of resistance which might now turn into support.
Gandalf the White
(11/10/2004; 23:04:01 MDT - Msg ID: 126293)
THANKS Sir GoldCoaster !
ONLY about one HOUR to go before ENRTY DEADLINE !
<;-)
Sundeck
(11/11/2004; 02:48:26 MDT - Msg ID: 126295)
Condolences from Oz
Dear Waverider,

Please accept my deepest condolences on the loss of your brother.

Sundeck
goldenpeace
(11/11/2004; 04:05:39 MDT - Msg ID: 126296)
Dear Gandalf...
I think you missed my entry: Message 126270
Bowing
goldenpeace
Sundeck
(11/11/2004; 05:47:22 MDT - Msg ID: 126297)
MK's question Msg #126219 on Barricks debt raising...
http://www.barrick.com/3_Financials/MK asks: "How much do you think the Barrick $1 billion bond offer (and Placer's equity offer) has to do with gold breaking above the $430 mark?"

Referring to Barrick's latest quarterly report at the link provided by Boilermaker Msg #126257, pp23-24, it is unclear to me exactly how Barrick's have structured their hedge book. Part of my confusion is undoubtedly due to my unfamiliarity with the language used and with the normal modus operandi of setting up gold hedge books. However, part is also due to vagaries of the description they provide (intentionally or otherwise).

What seems to be clear from their description of their forward commitments is that:

1. They have contracted to make gold deliveries out to 2014 in quantities and prices that are a function of interest rates and gold least rates.

2. Some contracts involve dates later than 2014.

3. The hedge-book is currently underwater, mark-to-market, by about $1.7B. It would break even at a gold spot price of $294.

4. Using some (unspecified) model of interest rates and gold lease rates (and presumably delivery schedule) between now and 2014, their average realisable contracted gold price is about $419.

5. Their current cash cost of production per ounce is about $208.

6. 13.7 million ounces remain hedged, corresponding to only 16% of their reserves.

7. They appear to have considerable flexibility in their delivery schedule.

8. At anticipated rates of production, it would take Barrick about three years to close out their hedge-book, if they so allocated all of their production.

Some comments (not nearly complete and probably containing errors of comprehension):

a. Taken at face value, they appear to be in a fairly sound position. Cash costs are only about half their average realisable price and they only have a small percentage of their reserves hedged.
b. If Barrick wished to close out all of its contracted forward positions immediately, they would need to acquire 13.7M oz (426 tonnes) at current spot prices. Assuming they could get that much without moving the market, they would take a loss of about $1.7B.
c. If, instead, they elect to deliver into their hedge-book over the next ten years then they are confronted with several problems which are probably all exacerbated by the growing global awareness of the state of the $US, and the twin US deficits. These "problems" are all interrelated and are all unpredictable. They include the future spot price of gold, future interest rates, future gold lease rates, the so-called inflation rate as measured by the CPI and the PPI � principal among these latter two are the input costs of wages and energy, which are two of the main cost of production of an ounce of gold.
d. The implications of variability in these factors are known only to Barrick, when they run their forward-delivery contract model for different scenarios. Even though I do not know what that model is, I feel confident in making two assertions: (i) the model will not include all factors that may be important, and (ii) it will not allow reliable predictions of exposure to be made under all probable scenarios.
e. What are the forward implications if the PPI and the CPI get a bit wild � not "hyperinflation" as such, but perhaps 15 � 20% per annum? Well wages will eventually catch up with a vengeance which when combined with likely high energy prices will mean that the cash cost of production will be much greater than the present $208 per ounce. Interest rates will also probably be much higher. What would be the effect on the "average realisable price"? It may turn out to be less than the "average cost of production" over the next ten years � or even the next three years, which is the earliest that Barrick can hope to close out their hedge-book through straight production
f. What if the spot price of gold rises dramatically in the next year? Then the mark-to-market value of the hedge-book becomes much worse than it is already and their ability to acquire gold will similarly become more difficult because of high demand and restricted supply (e.g. high lease rates).
g. Juggling the contractual options available to them, Barrick have probably concluded that it is better to greatly reduce their forward exposure sooner rather than later �even if it means taking a considerable loss. What better way to do it than by raising funds through a bond issue (presumably not inflation indexed). With the funds, they may be able to acquire gold covertly in the relatively short term (CB WAG II sales, gradual spot accumulations, private disinvestment) without moving the market too much. The bonds will probably be appealing to many buyers, pay an "attractive" interest rate in the current climate of "benign inflation", but the bond holders are going to cop the loss when interest rates rise as the $US descends.
h. What is the significance of $430 POG? I doubt that the actual figure is all that significant, but I think the "mood" surrounding that figure is. By mood I mean the persistent upward trend in the spot POG (following the major correction from April this year) and the growing awareness (publicly stated all over the place) that the likely direction of the dollar is down � this coupled with grave concern about the present state of the US's finances and the likely prognosis. $430 is important insofar as it has been broken AGAIN, this time with strong upward "pressure".

The whole question of Barrick's hedge-book (or that of other strongly hedged producers) is made complex by unfolding events; probably much more than was anticipated when the hedge books were constructed.

We wait and watch�

FWIW
Ned
(11/11/2004; 07:27:21 MDT - Msg ID: 126298)
Arafat has died...
Caradoc
(11/11/2004; 07:31:29 MDT - Msg ID: 126299)
Barrick's hedge book, etc.
Good input from Sundeck! Reading between the lines, if the prospects for gold are such that Barrick should be able to handle its situation without damaging itself, it's automatically true that unhedged miners are in an even better position as they will be converting ore into bullion without having to use some fraction of the proceeds to buy their way out of a hedge.

From the viewpoint of avoiding risk, nothing can beat holding a stash of the already finished product. Once that stash is in place, it's reasonable to look at the poential for paper profits (always convertible to the real thing!) offered by the unhedged miners. My hunch is that within a matter of months POG will reach a level high enough that miners will begin to be valued not only on current earnings but on some fraction of the value of their unmined ounces. For me, this degree of leverage represents the "sweet spot" on the risk/reward spectrum. I realize that fantastically greater leverage is possible if you're lucky enough to pick the right explorer, but the idea of going after ounces that might be there or might not isn't as attractive as betting that markets will begin to assign some value to ounces which are there but haven't been mined yet.

Just how I see it....

Caradoc
Jing Zu
(11/11/2004; 08:24:43 MDT - Msg ID: 126300)
Ooops.....$$$$$ 435.7 $$$$$
It appears as though I have missed this opportunity for a piece of gold. I had my comments written and went to darts last night. Then just plain forgot to enter.

Thank you for having this forum with all of its color!

I will try again to win a piece of gold when another contest appears. Good Luck to those who entered�. If I were to guess though� I would guess $$$$$ 435.7 $$$$$

Where is Gold Going? To the moon! Most of what we all know to be true is history and history repeats itself. So, keep printing that fiat and watch the fall of another Nation. We are living in a time of history making� So, watch in awe as it unfolds. It is inevitable, to be expected, probable, anticipated, what will occur.

Keep up the good discussion� Throughout my day I read most all of the thoughts posted on from the Gold Discussion Forum.

Thank you! Jing Zu
Buongiorno!
(11/11/2004; 08:52:21 MDT - Msg ID: 126301)
Lady Waverider

Deepest sympathy to you and your family. My own brother was lost almost three years ago, and I know how much that hurts. When the tears begin to dry, we may go about living a life that, hopefully, would be pleasing to the memory of that dear departed sibling.

Sadly,
Buongiorno
Boilermaker
(11/11/2004; 08:58:15 MDT - Msg ID: 126302)
Sundeck msg#: 126297
Thanks for the good discussion and analysis in your recent post.

At the bottom of page 20 of Barrick's most recent quarterly report it states that Barrick must maintain a minimum consolidated net worth (CNW) of at least $2 billion - currently, it is $3.4 billion.

With 13.7 million ounces of gold hedged at the end of the quarter @ $418/oz the book was underwater by $1.711 billion. Each $1 increase in gold price above $418/oz reduces Barrick's CNW further by $13.7 million. Since Barrick had excess CNW of $1.4 billion at quarter's end, the price of gold that will eat up that excess and force "early closeout of certain transactions" is $520/oz.
They do not say what percentage of their contracts are covered by this covenant.
Most of us here at the Forum believe that $520 gold is quite likely over the next year. Perhaps Barrick is beginning to see it the same way. Problem for them is that if they accelerate their buyback POG moves up more rapidly. We also suspect that some "commercial" shorts may blow up as the POG rises and start a cascade of buying to cover. As we have said before Barrick is a dead man walking.
Boilermaker
(11/11/2004; 09:06:08 MDT - Msg ID: 126303)
Waverider
Dear Lady Waverider, Let me add my sincerest condolences on the loss of your brother. I offer my prayers to you and yours.
Gandalf the White
(11/11/2004; 09:19:58 MDT - Msg ID: 126304)
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ THE "PRICE of GOLD" GUESSING CONTEST!! $$$$$$$$$$$$

TAA TAA TAAAAAAAAAAAAA, TAA TAA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !

Entries (revised) as of THURSDAY 11/11/04 at just about 00:01 Denver time !!!

FINAL OFFICIAL ENTRY LISTINGS (revised) <;-)

Listed in order of decreasing values !
----

$$$ $8,752.0 $$$ The Invisible Hand (11/6/04; 02:45:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 126118)

$$$ $1,200.0 $$$ LimitUp (11/10/04; 21:44:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 126289)

$$$$ $575.2 $$$$ Sprout (11/5/04; 15:19:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 126103)

$$$$ $499.0 $$$$ Caradoc (11/6/04; 04:35:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 126120)

$$$$ $467.0 $$$$ jenika (11/6/04; 05:55:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 126122)

$$$$ $456.5 $$$$ Gene (11/5/04; 11:03:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 126096)

$$$$ $454.5 $$$$ mackattack (11/6/04; 18:24:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 126127)

$$$$ $452.7 $$$$ Dollar Bill (11/10/04; 17:58:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 126272)

$$$$ $451.6 $$$$ mikal (11/5/04; 13:35:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 126099)

$$$$ $450.1 $$$$ Cometose (11/7/04; 13:14:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 126136)
$$$$ $450.0 $$$$ Lothar of the Hill People (11/5/04; 14:19:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 126101)
$$$$ $449.9 $$$$ slingshot (11/8/04; 16:12:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 126172)

$$$$ $448.8 $$$$ Toolie (11/7/04; 14:32:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 126137)

$$$$ $448.1 $$$$ Buongiorno! (11/9/04; 10:25:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 126196)

$$$$ $447.5 $$$$ Waverider (11/07/04; 01:23:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 126130)

$$$$ $447.3 $$$$ GratefulForGold (11/10/04; 21:01:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 126287)

$$$$ $446.9 $$$$ HOOSIER GOLDBUG (11/9/04; 15:27:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 126211)

$$$$ $446.3 $$$$ Sundeck (11/6/04; 04:20:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 126119)

$$$$ $445.2 $$$$ J-Bullion (11/8/04; 14:12:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 126167)

$$$$ $444.5 $$$$ DoubleEagle (11/8/04; 02:27:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 126152)
$$$$ $444.4 $$$$ Zhisheng (11/4/04; 10:56:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 126063)
$$$$ $441.1 $$$$ makcumka (11/10/04; 06:27:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 126242)
$$$$ $444.0 $$$$ Shapur (11/9/04; 13:22:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 126204)

$$$$ $443.2 $$$$ Rimh (11/9/04; 09:45:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 126188)

$$$$ $442.5 $$$$ Noble1 (11/5/04; 18:23:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 126110)

$$$$ $442.1 $$$$ Gandalf the White (11/10/04; 18:56:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 126278)

$$$$ $441.7 $$$$ Smeagol (11/5/04; 17:15:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 126105)

$$$$ $441.0 $$$$ Druid (11/10/04; 21:31:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 126288)

$$$$ $440.8 $$$$ Shermag (11/9/04; 11:36:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 126199)

$$$$ $440.0 $$$$ shawnis (11/8/04; 20:28:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 126175)

$$$$ $439.8 $$$$ Golden Era (11/10/04; 05:29:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 126239)

$$$$ $439.6 $$$$ Rustee (11/5/04; 09:02:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 126086)

$$$$ $439.4 $$$$ goldquest (11/10/04; 19:38:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 126280)

$$$$ $439.2 $$$$ Goldendome (11/9/04; 21:38:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 126230)

$$$$ $438.9 $$$$ Liberty Head (11/5/04; 21:37:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 126116)
$$$$ $438.8 $$$$ Rocky (11/9/04; 17:52:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 126218)

$$$$ $438.5 $$$$ White Hills (11/10/04; 11:52:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 126260)

$$$$ $438.2 $$$$ glockmaster19 (11/9/04; 16:05:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 126213)

$$$$ $437.7 $$$$ Canuck Gold (11/9/04; 22:40:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 126234)

$$$$ $437.5 $$$$ Felix the Cat (11/9/04; 19:53:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 126222)

$$$$ $437.0 $$$$ innerline (11/10/04; 11:35:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 126259)

$$$$ $436.8 $$$$ goldenpeace (11/10/04; 16:18:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 126270)

$$$$ $436.5 $$$$ pilgrims_gold (11/10/04; 06:12:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 126241)

$$$$ $436.0 $$$$ killerjay_47 (11/10/04; 10:06:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 126253)

$$$$ $435.5 $$$$ YGM (11/7/04; 09:39:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 126133)

$$$$ $435.0 $$$$ Camel (11/10/04; 14:16:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 126264)

$$$$ $434.5 $$$$ balzac (11/9/04; 09:58:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 126190)

$$$$ $434.3 $$$$ Tevye (11/10/04; 12:36:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 126261)

$$$$ $434.0 $$$$ Black Blade (11/10/04; 20:57:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 126286)

$$$$ $433.8 $$$$ R Powell (11/10/04; 15:50:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 126268)

$$$$ $433.5 $$$$ timbervision (11/10/04; 20:23:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 126283)

$$$$ $433,3 $$$$ Shanti (11/8/04; 14:53:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 126169)

$$$$ $433.0 $$$$ Gondolin (11/10/04; 03:13:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 126237)

$$$$ $432.5 $$$$ John the Jute (11/9/04; 08:41:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 126187)

$$$$ $432.0 $$$$ TheJuniorMiner (11/10/04; 08:55:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 126248)

$$$$ $431.6 $$$$ servantHeart (11/5/04; 10:26:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 126092)

$$$$ $431.0 $$$$ DryWasher (11/4/04; 16:13:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 126074

$$$$ $430.2 $$$$ GoldCoaster (11/10/04; 22:57:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 126292)

$$$$ $429.9 $$$$ Wky_Woodsman (11/10/04; 20:43:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 126284)

$$$$ $429.5 $$$$ The Hoople (11/9/04; 12:08:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 126200)
$$$$ $429.4 $$$$ Legolas (11/9/04; 20:49:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 126226)

$$$$ $429.1 $$$$ mudr (11/7/04; 21:59:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 126147)

$$$$ $428.4 $$$$ NTgeo (11/10/04; 20:52:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 126285)

$$$$ $427.0 $$$$ Clink! (11/7/04; 12:25:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 126135)

$$$$ $426.5 $$$$ Topaz (11/4/04; 16:13:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 126075)

$$$$ $425.5 $$$$ wehappyfew (11/10/04; 19:27:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 126279)

$$$$ $424.5 $$$$ 7nomads (11/10/04; 18:42:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 126276)

$$$$ $424.2 $$$$ Tranquility Base (11/10/04; 17:50:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 126271)

$$$$ $423.2 $$$$ Tiburon (11/10/04; 20:20:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 126282)

$$$$ $422.3 $$$$ The Knife (11/5/04; 10:03:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 126089)

$$$$ $419.5 $$$$ Golden Lionheart (11/7/04; 17:13:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 126140)

$$$$ $000.0 $$$$ TomJIl (11/6/04; 16:21:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 126126)

===
<;-)

Gandalf the White
(11/11/2004; 09:21:38 MDT - Msg ID: 126305)
Thanks for opening my eyes Goldenpeace !
<;-)
Clink!
(11/11/2004; 09:26:12 MDT - Msg ID: 126306)
A rather sordid little story
http://www.democracynow.org/article.pl?sid=04/11/09/1526251Around the world, we appear to be seeing negative reactions to US, or more particularly dollar, hegemony. Multiple left-wing governments in South America, the gold dinar, Iran's soon-to-be oil market etc. Why now ? Well, the most obvious answer is that the sentiment against the dollar has been there for a long time (back into the '60s for the roots of the creation of the euro) and now seems to be a possible time when the US Dept of Defense is trying (somewhat unsuccessfully) to practice offense. By the time the Iraq situation is resolved (and by that I mean when the US forces are back on US soil), the world is going to be a very changed place.

The attached link is to an interview with an author who appears to have been deeply involved with the creation of the dollar empire, and some of the dirty tricks are described. While little of this makes it into the US media, it must not be forgotten that, as an example, many Iranians (particularly senior clerics in positions of influence) can remember when their democratically elected government was overthrown by a US-backed dictator just under 50 years ago.

There was a particularly succinct description concerning Ecuador - Snip :-

JOHN PERKINS: Well, the company I worked for was a company named Chas. T. Main in Boston, Massachusetts. We were about 2,000 employees, and I became its chief economist. I ended up having fifty people working for me. But my real job was deal-making. It was giving loans to other countries, huge loans, much bigger than they could possibly repay. One of the conditions of the loan�let's say a $1 billion to a country like Indonesia or Ecuador�and this country would then have to give ninety percent of that loan back to a U.S. company, or U.S. companies, to build the infrastructure�a Halliburton or a Bechtel. These were big ones. Those companies would then go in and build an electrical system or ports or highways, and these would basically serve just a few of the very wealthiest families in those countries. The poor people in those countries would be stuck ultimately with this amazing debt that they couldn't possibly repay. A country today like Ecuador owes over fifty percent of its national budget just to pay down its debt. And it really can't do it. So, we literally have them over a barrel. So, when we want more oil, we go to Ecuador and say, "Look, you're not able to repay your debts, therefore give our oil companies your Amazon rain forest, which are filled with oil." And today we're going in and destroying Amazonian rain forests, forcing Ecuador to give them to us because they've accumulated all this debt. So we make this big loan, most of it comes back to the United States, the country is left with the debt plus lots of interest, and they basically become our servants, our slaves. It's an empire. There's no two ways about it. It's a huge empire. It's been extremely successful.

End snip.

So the thought occurs to me, what happens if there is a country in this situation which gets an offer from another creditor who wants the same thing and has a lot of dollars and can maybe offer gentler terms ? Say Japan or China ? It wouldn't be payback time, more like payoff time !

C!
goldenpeace
(11/11/2004; 09:48:35 MDT - Msg ID: 126307)
Gandalf.......
Yours eyes may be closed at times...
But you are always awake.
Blessings
goldenpeace
The Hoople
(11/11/2004; 10:05:05 MDT - Msg ID: 126308)
Seidman lobbed live hand grenade on CNBC
CNBC just fielded an e-mail question from seemingly a GATA supporter to Bill Seidman, regarding illegal gold shorting and whether the gold price will explode when they run out of ammo. Real funny, Seidman said these were only allegations and nothing has been proven. He did say it would be a big deal if anything was proven. I agree there Bill. Trouble is it has been proven.
White Rose
(11/11/2004; 12:59:56 MDT - Msg ID: 126309)
Use the Euro to measure gold
I have noticed that in the past week, the price of gold in Euros is not moving very much. I also noticed that the price of gold is $435 when the $/Euro is $1.29. I ask everyone to make a little chart of the dollar price of gold for every level where the Euro gets more expensive by the nickel. My favorite value is $489 for gold when the Euro hits $1.45.

Of course, once we see a fall of the dollar like that, the initial rush for gold should begin to also lift the Euro price of gold as well. That will give this little rocket engine another boost.

The real rocket fuel is the short position on gold mixed in with a little peak oil with just a pinch of the possibility of nuclear war in the middle east. All in all, a very powerful brew.

To life! Protect those around you in the next few years. None of this will be any fun at all.

MK
(11/11/2004; 14:23:52 MDT - Msg ID: 126310)
Waverider,
Speaking on behalf of the staff at USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals, let me offer you our sincerest condolences for your loss. Our thoughts and prayers are with you during this difficult time.
Boilermaker
(11/11/2004; 14:33:31 MDT - Msg ID: 126311)
Barrick's Hedge Book
Another trend weighing heavily on Barrick's hedge book that I did not see mentioned in their financial statements is the decline in the US$. I think we can assume that, at a minimum, the POG will be inversely proportional to the $ index. If so, a dollar index of .70 will put gold at $520/oz where Barrick goes under. This amounts to a 16.5% deline from the current .84. Barrick's hedges in $ insure their downfall.
Gandalf the White
(11/11/2004; 15:00:47 MDT - Msg ID: 126312)
TODAY's -----"KING of the HILL" -----report ! <;-)

COMEX December '04 Gold Contract (GCZ04)
Open = $434.3 HIGH = $436.2 low = $434.1
SETTLEMENT = $435.4 CHANGE +$0.9
===
AND the "KING of the HILL" today is:
TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

Sir YGM !!! (for the SECOND TIME !)
Hang in there !
---
$$$$ $435.5 $$$$ (11/7/04; 09:39:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 126133)

YGM
(11/11/2004; 16:06:32 MDT - Msg ID: 126313)
Gandalf the White (11/11/04; 15:00:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 126312)
Sheesh leave to do some work and the place goes nuts w/ traffic...hey "King o` the Hill" kinda reminds one of the Horseshoes and Handgrenades analogy? Eh!! (:-}>
Black Blade
(11/11/2004; 16:19:51 MDT - Msg ID: 126314)
Re: Waverider

I must have missed the news of your loss. I too offer my condolences. I have seen that Comercial Fishing (especially "crabbing" in the northern pacific and Bearing straights) are among the most dangerous jobs and takes one of strong will to seek that adventure and wealth in such conditions. We hope that you fare well during this time.

- Black Blade
Sundeck
(11/11/2004; 16:36:07 MDT - Msg ID: 126315)
Barrick's bed-time story...err hedge-book??
@Boilermaker #126302 re covenances.

Yes, I suspect you may have identified the single most important vulnerability in their hedge position and perhaps their most pressing concern.

If not too much of their hedged position is covered by the covenances, then a $B "well spent" may prevent the axe from falling...but, as you say, it is a delicate play and lots can go wrong in a short time.

:-)
Cometose
(11/11/2004; 17:03:13 MDT - Msg ID: 126316)
Lady Waverider : my condolences
I pray that the memory of your brother always lightens your mind and warms your heart forever with goodness.
Paper Avalanche
(11/11/2004; 18:54:32 MDT - Msg ID: 126317)
@ Lady Waverider....
I am very sorry for your loss. I will keep you and your family in my prayers during this difficult time.

Take care.

PA
Noble1
(11/11/2004; 19:01:21 MDT - Msg ID: 126318)
Lady Waverider
May I, too, offer my condolences and prayers to you and your family. May God have mercy on your brother's soul and guide him into the everlasting life that only He can provide. I'm sure he's already there.
When thinking of your brother---

Remember: God made a heart of gold, of gold,
Shining and sweet and true;
Gave it a home of the fairest mould,
Blest it and called it-you.

by Robert William Service(1874-? ) Sunshine VI

Noble1
YGM
(11/11/2004; 19:06:41 MDT - Msg ID: 126319)
Russian Paper.....Russaia selling dollars, acquiring Euros....
http://www.gateway2russia.com/art.php?artid=256892&rubid=∥ent=&grandparent


09 November 2004 12:15
Russia selling dollars to diversify currency reserves - Putin`s economic adviser

By selling US dollars and securities and assets denominated in the US currency, Russia is diversifying its currency reserves, which is in line with the Russian Central Bank's policy, Andrey Illarionov, economic adviser to the Russian president, said in an interview with ITAR-TASS today. Illarionov is taking part in an international conference "Capital expansion: from a national to a transnational economy" which is being held here.
The Russian expert expressed this view following reports in the British media today saying that Russia, India and China are getting rid of their dollar assets and that this may lead to the dollar exchange rate falling further.
According to Illarionov, over the last few days the Russian Central Bank has made no secret of its intention to expand the basis of its currency reserves, including by investing currency reserves in the acquisition of euros.

USAGOLD Daily Market Report
(11/11/2004; 19:20:02 MDT - Msg ID: 126320)
Page Update!
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Daily Gold Market Report has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.

Comex gold futures ended slightly higher Thursday after a low-key Veterans Day holiday session in which bullion prices effectively mirrored the U.S. dollar's movements versus the euro.

The most-active December contract settled 90 cents higher at $435.40.

Dealers agreed that while gold is predominantly attuned to the currency markets at the moment, sentiment in bullion is deemed sturdy.

Players remain mindful of the difficulties besetting the U.S. currency and the geopolitical uncertainty arising from Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat's death.

With a persistently weak U.S. currency hugely supportive for countercyclical assets such as gold, the huge U.S. budget and trade deficits are widely viewed as two key reasons gold prices are expected to remain supported over the near to medium term.

Gold's safe-haven appeal is expected to be heightened further as attention returns to the obstacles to peace in the Middle East in the wake of Arafat's passing and the ongoing war in Iraq.

"Gold's looking pretty good around here and there are plenty of reasons why prices are as high as they are," said a dealer with a large U.S. investment bank.

-----(see url for access to full news, 24-hr newswire)----
Waverider
(11/11/2004; 20:12:08 MDT - Msg ID: 126321)
Sir MK, All
Thank you a thousand Gold pieces for your prayers, kind thoughts, and support during this very difficult time. Please know that your words are all very precious and that I have kept each and every posting here for my memory book. I shall choose some for the memorial service next week. I am amazed at the caring and support offered by people whom I've never met, yet with whom I feel connected through a love for, and appreciation of Gold and all the values that it encompasses. Life can change on a dime, and what really matters is the purity of love in our spirits and our hearts. I can see from these posts that the hearts of those here reflect the eternal beauty of pure Gold. Thanks again for all your precious words.
Gold Standard
(11/11/2004; 21:13:55 MDT - Msg ID: 126322)
How does one "privatise" Social Security?

Could any of you in the USA explain to me this concept of "privatising" Social Security?

In my part of the world, privatisation is the selling off of a government entity (or monopoly) for an immediate short-term profit. The former government entity is corporatised, and floated on the Stock Exchange. Examples in Oz include banks, airlines, and monopoly telecommunications carriers.

The important fact is that these "privatised" entities have one thing in common - they all make a (huge) profit.

How on earth can one "privatise" the greatest loss-inducing mechanism in all of Christiandom - Social Security. How do you induce speculators to part with their hard-earned, for a share of a guaranteed loss?

Your thoughts would oblige.

Cheers, GS
Sundeck
(11/11/2004; 22:39:45 MDT - Msg ID: 126323)
More on Barrick's hedge book...
Boilermaker et al.,

Further to my last post Msg #126315, a closer reading of Barrick's last quarterly report, on p.25 they state:

"Barrick's MTAs (Master Trading Agreements) exclude unrealised mark-to-market valuations in the calculation of consolidated net worth."

Hence, I now think it is incorrect in supposing that their exposure to a rapidly rising gold price would erode their CNW by forcing their hedge-book more and more underwater.

What do they mean by "Consolidated Net Worth"? It appears to be identical with "Total shareholders' equity" appearing on the consolidated balance sheet.

There are some puzzling features of Barrick's hedge-book that I am still trying to get my mind around. One is what seems to be an incredibly favourable arrangement enabling them to deliver gold into their hedge book at times that suit them - even to the point of always being able to roll forward the final delivery date from year to year (if the counter-party agrees). (I think GATA has drawn attention to this and no doubt it will be scrutinised closely in the Blanchard case.)

One thing that puzzles me a bit is that, given the very favourable hedge contracts, why would Barrick now want to wind them down so determinedly, as they have recently stated? It's not as if they are short of reserves - only 16% hedged - and so long to effect delivery - 10 years or more (open ended in some cases). It would seem like a dream arrangement to guard against a FALLING gold price. What has changed? Perhaps they (and their counterparties) know what is coming down the pike...

More later, if I can become more enlightened...

Cheers

:-0

Druid
(11/12/2004; 00:37:01 MDT - Msg ID: 126324)
Lady Waverider

I would like to extend my deepest heartfelt sympathy for you and your loved ones. My up-most respect and admiration for you dear lady in representing such strength in a time of weakness. God be with you and your loved ones.
968
(11/12/2004; 02:21:52 MDT - Msg ID: 126325)
Crash landing coming for China
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/FK12Ad05.htmlSNIP :
The implications of a Chinese hard landing will ripple through every major asset market: Stocks, bonds, real estate, and commodities. The linkage will be the blowback through the American consumer.

From virtuous circle to vicious :
- China is the world supply source
- America is the world demand source
- China sells goods to the US consumer
- The consumer sends dollars to China
- China parks dollars in US bonds
- Lower bond yields subsidize the US consumer, spurring demand and investment
- US consumer demand leads to investment in Chinese manufacturing.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Using Ari's words : "Stormclouds gather..."
968
(11/12/2004; 02:59:04 MDT - Msg ID: 126326)
Tequila trap beckons China
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/FK06Ad01.htmlAnother article by Liu !
SNIP : "Yet a hard landing may be precisely the cold-turkey medicine needed to veer China away from an addiction on export for fiat dollars not backed by any specie of value. Soft-landing is a flawed imagery because there are few economic runways long enough to land an economy plagued by speculative acceleration. Running a plane off the runway is much more dangerous than a controlled hard landing."

"Financial assets denominated in fiat dollars are now mostly built on debt, with sizable amounts in debts external to the US economy. Debt is not intrinsically objectionable if it is adequately collateralized by real assets, and the proceeds are invested to increase income to service the debt. But if debt is collateralized mostly by the wealth effect of speculative asset appreciation and serviced by incurring more debt, a bubble is in the making. The so-called air-ball financing, widely used in financing global telecom expansion in the 1990s, in which unrealistically anticipated future earnings were used as collateral for financing over-investments to generate those very earnings, caused the telecom bubble. A housing bubble exists because houses are being financed by full-cost mortgages at negative interest rates, banking on the continuing rise in home prices."

"Whether or when a bubble will burst depends on a government's ability to extend its elasticity, which is not unlimited, notwithstanding US Fed chief Allan Greenspan's wizardry. Such elasticity comes from liquidity. To support the market, government increasingly needs to intervene, which in turn destroys the market. As is already apparent, the Federal Reserve is increasingly reduced to an irrelevant role of explaining the economy rather than directing it. It has adopted the role of a clean-up crew of otherwise avoidable financial debris rather than the preventive guardian of public financial health."

Yet Liu has somewhat other thoughts on gold then we have at the CPM-forum :

"The recent global commodity market bubble is not caused by real increased demand by the Chinese economy but by speculation fueled by low dollar interest rates and speculation of China's future demand based on anticipated Chinese export growth. Yet the inevitable rise in dollar interest rates will burst the commodities bubble, affecting the exchange value of the currencies of commodity-exporting nations such as Australia, South Africa and Chile. It will also torpedo the anemic US recovery and curb demand for Chinese exports. The global economy, led by super-low short-term dollar interest rate, has been sustained by carry trade, a technical term that describe a speculative strategy of borrowing short-term in low-interest money markets to invest for gain in long-term high-interest money markets, or to speculate in high-inflation sectors such as commodities. A steep fall in copper, gold and other metal prices in the final week of April 2004 suggested that the two-year boom in commodity markets might be coming to a close, except for oil, whose price is being driven by the second Iraq war and climatic factors."

"The gold price was fixed in London at $386 an ounce on April 28, down from a peak of $428.20 in January 2004. Gold closed in London at $423.45 on October 22. December delivery gold was at $425.60. The growing nervousness in the metal markets stems mainly from China's moves to cool its fast-expanding economy as well as a recent rebound in the dollar, reflecting expectations of higher dollar interest rates. The rebound of the dollar has roiled metal markets because most prices are denominated in dollars and often move in the opposite direction.

Booming demand from China has been blamed for driving the spike in commodity prices since late 2002, with China either overtaking or approaching the US as the world's biggest consumer of materials like aluminum, coal, copper, iron ore and steel. But with fears growing of an inflationary bubble, Chinese authorities ordered banks in late April to curb their rapid rise in lending in overheated sectors. The government has also tightened capital requirements and regulatory approval for investments in aluminum, cement, real estate and steel projects. The State Council, China's cabinet, halted construction of a $1.3 billion steel mill in Jiangsu province as part of an effort to rebalance economic growth. The expansion of China's steel capacity has outstripped its electricity capacity and raw material supply. As China becomes the largest consumer of basic commodities, it would be natural, if it were not for dollar hegemony, for such commodities to be priced in yuan. Euroland consumes more imported oil than any other nation, but the price of oil is denominated in dollars. Iraq under Saddam Hussein was the only oil-exporting nation that denominated its oil in euros, and we all know what happened to Saddam."
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thoughts ?
Noble1
(11/12/2004; 06:25:40 MDT - Msg ID: 126327)
Russian Subsoil Gold Reserves
http://en.rian.ru/rian/index.cfm?prd_id=160&msg_id=5075463☆trow=1&date=2004-11-11&do_alert=0
Snip: 11/11/04 (RIA Novosti)-The exploitable reserves of Russian gold will be used up in 2011...

Click on the hyperlink to view the short article. Interesting! Meaningful!?

Remember:Make your contest guess as close as you can and our gracious host will put gold in your hand.

Noble1
Clink!
(11/12/2004; 06:51:39 MDT - Msg ID: 126328)
@ Gold Standard re privitisation of Social Security
I had been wondering about the same thing, so I went to W's campaign website and tried to do a search for the word. The search engine doesn't work with Netscape. Switching handily to IE, I looked for both privitisation and privitization. There were no hits, from which I would have to infer that it was not one of the major planks of his campaign. Social Security had over 200 hits, but as the first 50 started with attacks on John Kerry, I didn't bother to look any further for some solid policy exposition.

If I sound frustrated and sarcastic, you would be right. Here in the US we are still trying to get over a protracted period of mudslinging (from BOTH sides, I hasten to add) which was also characterised by an almost total lack of hard information of how the serious, have-to-deal-with issues would be addressed. You know, the stuff that's discussed here - Hubbert's point, Boomer retirement, etc.

However, it would appear that the essential thrust is to allow younger members of the workforce to divert some of their SS payments into individual retirement accounts, rather than having it all being poured into the general SS kitty. Quite what these accounts would be allowed to be used for, as well as who would hold them, is open for debate, particularly as the whole point is to give people the freedom of individual choice. There already exists a huge choice of tax-free retirement options, so why would the government want to impose others and, in any case, why should the government think that they have any right to force me to save ? And if the government forces me to do this, are they going to have to underwrite the investment vehicles which they have forced me to put my money into ? If it is limited to Treasury bonds, this is essentially the same as the current system.

It has moral hazard and conflict of interest smeared all over it, but Wall St could make handsome profits from it, so there is a good chance it will go forward. The unfortunate bottom line, however, is that the current SS scheme is the usual cash-out = cash-in scheme, so if money is diverted to other things on the "in" side, the government is going to have to find an alternative source to make up the difference. Bearing in mind that it is already running a huge deficit - including the money already being funnelled into SS - there is no real practical way that this is feasible. So they'll probably just borrow the money.

C!
Noble1
(11/12/2004; 07:32:23 MDT - Msg ID: 126329)
Overstated Reserves
http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml;jsessionid=110EQHH21JWCUCRBAE0CFEY?type=topNews&storyID=6795169
Somebody (please remind me who it was) recently posted about revelations/admissions of oil companies overstating their reserves and mused about mining companies doing the same thing with their gold reserves. Then I read this;

Snip: 12/12/04 (Reuters)-Citigroup said South Africa's Harmony Gold...has overstated its reserves by 23 percent.

Remember: Webster's definition of gold.

gold (n) a malleable yellow metallic element used esp for coins and jewelry; a precious metal; money, wealth; a yellow color. *(adj) of, or like, gold.

Noble1

EagleOne
(11/12/2004; 08:01:04 MDT - Msg ID: 126330)
Clink!
You might try privatization of social security on dogpile.com
Camel
(11/12/2004; 08:13:41 MDT - Msg ID: 126331)
@gold standard
Sure, the way to profit from Social security is to turn it over to the short sellers on the Nasduck. Now maybe if they would buy gold with it that wouldn't be so bad.
Great Albino Bat
(11/12/2004; 08:43:44 MDT - Msg ID: 126332)
The importance of correct spelling....

I observe with fascination the multitude of spelling errors now prevalent in the English language.

Just because words sound alike, does not mean they are spelt alike. There are too many examples - I was making a list, but, what's the use. People do not go by letters anymore, they go by SOUNDS. Rather like money, come to think of it: money today LOOKS LIKE MONEY, so, it must be money.

Take "Privitization" or "Privitisation".

This I would understand to be the process of turning some things into PRIVIES. a "PRIVY" is the polite word for a toilet, amongst the Brits. No wonder an Internet search produced nothing. I never heard of a process of turning stuff into toilets. But, again, come to think of it, maybe modern state issuance of "money" is the result of the "privitization" of money?? Toilet-money, let us say?

Now CLINK, if you had typed in "PrivAtization", you would have found a great deal, I am sure.

The GAB, in Argentina, the Land of Privitized Money.
goldquest
(11/12/2004; 08:49:03 MDT - Msg ID: 126333)
Privitization of Social Security
http://www.cbo.gov/showdoc.cfm?index=3488sequence=0A bit dated but well explained!
killerjay_47
(11/12/2004; 08:56:12 MDT - Msg ID: 126334)
White Rose: PoG in other currencies
http://fx.sauder.ubc.ca/cgi/fxplot?b=XAU&c=USD&c=CAD&c=EUR&rd=365&fd=1&fm=1&fy=2003&ld=31&lm=12&ly=2004&y=daily&q=volume&f=png&a=lin&m=0&x=I too have noticed the relative lack of movement in the PoG as priced in Euros, as well as other currencies. The chart found at the link above shows a one year relative pricing of Canadian dollars, Euros, and US dollars. The Canadian dollar and the Euro are unchanged over one year, +/- 1.5%, but the US dollar has lost 10% relative to gold.
As I stated in my prediction for the contest, gold appears to have been trading very much like a currency of late, but eventually as the US dollar weakens and starts to bring other paper currencies to their knees, gold will show its strength and those of us who are holding will be in solid shape for the tomorrow that follows.
To play around with the chart you can go to http://fx.sauder.ubc.ca/plot.html and set it up, although I believe I got the url for the chart from this board somewhere, so many of you might have it in your favourites already.
Once again, please feel free to enlighten me if my remarks are somewhat superficial or ill-conceived. I know that I am not as well-read as several of the regulars here.

Waverider, deepest sympathies in your time of loss. May you find some peace in a time of chaos.

J
Knallgold
(11/12/2004; 09:00:15 MDT - Msg ID: 126335)
Privy what?
I think it is privatisation,with an s,but english is not my motherlanguage.
killerjay_47
(11/12/2004; 09:27:02 MDT - Msg ID: 126336)
Spelling of the word privatization
http://www.m-w.com/cgi-bin/dictionary?book=Dictionary&va=privatisationUnless Merriam-Webster has renounced some British (or other, proper) form of the word, the only spelling for privatization is P-R-I-V-A-T-I-Z-A-T-I-O-N. Just FYI.

J

P.S. Gold seems on a bit of a tear at the moment, having picked up $2.50 or so in about half an hour. Even if it means I don't win the contest, I'll take a solid run in the price of gold any day.
Gandalf the White
(11/12/2004; 09:58:28 MDT - Msg ID: 126337)
THERE goes the US$ again !
http://charts-d.quote.com:443/1002980432830?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=DX00Y∬erval=10&Ht=600&Wd=800&Display=2&Study=MA&Param1=13&Param2=0&Param3=&FontSize=10DIVE, DIVE, DIVE
GO GOLD !
<;-)
Clink!
(11/12/2004; 10:08:39 MDT - Msg ID: 126338)
@ GAB
OK, OK, my bad ! LOL ! I have to admit that usually I am of the same opinion about poor grammar and misspelling. When I first arrived here, I was often asked what I most missed about the UK. I replied, "Adverbs." Usually it is the word good instead of well.

I used to get a lot of questions when I was in France as to why a certain word was spelt in a certain way, but pronounced in another. The best example I ever found was the four letters "ough" which can be pronounced seven different ways. And then some people wonder why English is a difficult language. In fact, I even went as far as to try to conceive a sort of rules-based English, where the spelling was consistant and invariant for a given sound. Money, for instance, would become munny. There have been many attempts in the past (and this continues) to rectify this. One attempt was made by a US newspaper at the end of the 19th century (if my memory serves me correctly) to try to remedy the situation. They were going to do it little by little, and started out with only six egregious examples, of which only one has survived, and even then only in the US - thru. And I don't know about anyone else, but I would have thought throo might have been more logical.

Privatization worked only slightly better at the W site, with four references of which only was relevant. This from the VEEP in a townhall situation (by the way, I'm not sure what the questionier was taking at the time either .....!)

SNIP -

Q Mr. Vice President?

THE VICE PRESIDENT: Yes.

Q My question is -- has to do with Social Security. And it is in response -- my question is in response to Senator Kerry's outrageous complaining -- comments this weekend in which he announced that there was going to be a January surprise.

THE VICE PRESIDENT: Right.

Q And it had to that there will be privatization of Social Security. And also when he said that, he was in a large group, obviously. And he said this privatization of Social Security is going to affect all of your -- all of you medical -- or middle class people. All of you middle class people. Here's my question, I am recently widowed and I am recently retired. My husband died about a year after he retired, so as a result of his death and our retirement, I had to reckon with our Social Security and our retirement plans. And it became painfully aware to me that had we been able to just manage -- privately manage a small percentage of our Social Security contributions, I would have something of his Social Security now. As it is, I, of course, get my Social Security, plus I get a widow's benefit. But his Social Security is gone.

THE VICE PRESIDENT: Right.

Q And I just -- in comparison to what we were able to accumulate in our IRAs and in our 401k, my question to you is, how could optional, partial privatization of our security -- our Social Security contribution, how does that affect negatively all that middle class?

THE VICE PRESIDENT: Okay. Well, the comments that Senator Kerry made this weekend were, I thought, outrageous.

Q Oh, good. (Laughter.) We are in agreement.

THE VICE PRESIDENT: Well, the amazing thing about it is -- I've been involved in politics for a good part of the last -- nearly 40 years. The first campaign I ever worked in as a young man was 1966. And since then I've been a candidate for Congress six times, and now this is my second run for Vice President. I've been in winning elections and losing elections. But the thing that has happened frequently during the course of that career is when we get down to the end of an election, and our opponents are running behind, they start to peddle this notion of, oh, my gosh, the Republicans are going to destroy Social Security. I've heard it year after year after year. It's absolutely not true. It is just as false as can be. For him to make that suggestion is obviously geared strictly to trying to frighten people into voting for him on the theory that somehow something will happen to Social Security otherwise. This is dead wrong. It's not true. He knows it's not true. That's the most -- the most appalling thing of all is that he would consciously peddle something like that and scare the heck out of, frankly, a lot of our senior citizens when he knows it's not true.

Having said all of that, where we are with respect to Social Security is that the trust fund is in good shape for those that are currently retired, drawing benefits, and for those who will draw benefits any time in the foreseeable future. The problem we're going to run into in terms of the basic financial well being of the system is going to be a bigger problem for those now in their 20s and 30s, people like my kids, for example. And there are legitimate concerns there. They're worried that by the time they reach retirement age 30 or 40 years from now, there won't be anything there in the system. And there is going to be a problem down the road. We know how many people are going to reach retirement age. We know when they're going to reach that age. We know how much money is flowing into the system, and there will be a problem 30 or 40 years down the road that we need to address. And the sooner we begin to address it, the better.

What the President has talked about is doing something that you would find, given the story that you told about your own circumstances,

attractive, and that is we allow that younger generation, on a voluntary basis. It will be up to them, but to take a portion of their payroll tax and invest it in something like a 401k. It would be an approved plan that would earn a higher rate of return than what they'll get out Social Security, and as you point out, it would be their personal account. And in a circumstance down the road, such as you say -- as you say when your husband passed away, that was it. You'd get the widow's benefit but none of his retirement. And this would be a situation where that would be a personal account of the person who is retired, and they could pass it on to the next generation, if there are funds left in it.

So it provides greater flexibility down the road. It's nothing that's going to affect anybody who is currently retired today. This is the kind of thing that is obviously going to be future-oriented for future generations. But we also think it's important because it helps to the extent you generate a higher rate of return, you begin to close the funding gap that is going to exist out there 30 or 40 years down the road. So we think it makes sense. We think it's something that needs to be looked at and to be explored. We've talked about it. But the notion that Senator Kerry has peddled that somehow there's a January surprise, that the system is going to be quote "privatized" is just not true. It's wrong. It's a distortion. I can think of stronger words to use, but that's exactly where we're at, at this point.

END SNIP

Something seems pretty clear to me ......

Thank you for the suggestions, EagleOne and Goldquest. I also found something sponsored by the Cato Institute at www.socialsecurity.org
Rimh
(11/12/2004; 10:17:34 MDT - Msg ID: 126339)
Give the dogs more Roo meat, did ya, Gandalf?
They seem to be in fine form today, but if this level holds for today, save a morsel of meat for Monday, ok?

Once again it is at this site that I catch up on the real news of the day, ie. that Russia, China and India are all divesting themselves of US dollars and consequently helping gold, but the bull market for gold is still quiet in other currencies...

Lady Waverider: I also offer my condolences for your loss...you're willingness to express your loss here is courageous and has helped to bind our little community here a bit closer as we reflect on how precious life is.... Thank you.
Clink!
(11/12/2004; 10:18:50 MDT - Msg ID: 126340)
To put you all out of your misery
Cough - coff
Bough - bow
Bought - bawt
Rough - ruff
Through - throo
Thorough - thurruh
Though - dho

C!

PS. If anyone thinks of an eighth one, you will make my day !

Rimh
(11/12/2004; 10:26:35 MDT - Msg ID: 126341)
Thanks, Clink!
While I am trying to learn spanish (and making slow progress) its a good reminder of the difficulties in english which we take for granted because we grew up with it (and funny, too...).
John the Jute
(11/12/2004; 10:39:23 MDT - Msg ID: 126342)
Clink
Does either of these count?

hiccough -- pronounced (and often spelled) hiccup

youghourt -- sometimes pronounced yah-ourt
Gandalf the White
(11/12/2004; 10:50:18 MDT - Msg ID: 126343)
WHOA !!!
The only correctly spelled word that needs to be used HERE ---- is GOLD !
<;-)
Clink!
(11/12/2004; 10:58:51 MDT - Msg ID: 126344)
@ Sir J the J
Don't think so, but nice try.

@ Gandy - While I was typing it did occur to me that neither gold nor silver pose any spelling problem whatsoever !

C!
misetich
(11/12/2004; 11:14:22 MDT - Msg ID: 126345)
Global: The Trade Wildcard - S. Roach (US $ way overvalued)
http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/latest-digest.htmlSnip:

And it must run massive current-account and trade deficits in order to attract that capital -- inflows that are now up to $2.6 billion per business day as America's current account deficit ballooned to 5.7% of GDP in mid-2004. At this rate, America's current account deficit now absorbs more than 80% of the world's surplus saving.
....................
On a broad trade-weighted basis, the real effective exchange rate of the US dollar is down only about 11% from its early 2002 peak. That's nothing for a US economy with a current account deficit of 5.7% and rising. By contrast, the same broad dollar index fell 28% in the second half the 1980s when America's current account gap peaked at 3.4%. Today's US economy has about twice the current account problem it had back then but has experienced only about one-third the dollar depreciation. For that simple reason alone, I would argue that the dollar adjustment has been unusually constrained.
..................
There is tragic irony in all this. In large part, today's US trade deficits are made in Washington -- not Beijing. Lacking in private saving, outsize US budget deficits are leading to ever-widening current-account and trade deficits.
**************
Misetich

ANOTHER scintillating report from Mr. Roach hightlighting the overvaluation of the US $

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
Camel
(11/12/2004; 11:48:28 MDT - Msg ID: 126346)
Approved????
It would be an approved plan that would earn a higher rate of return than what they'll get out Social Security.- Dick Cheney

Approved????? How patronizing. Approved by who?? Joe Battapaglia? Frank Quatrone? Jeffry Skilling ?Larry Cuddlow? Amy whats her name? I can't remember and haven't watched in years. These are the same one that approved JDS Uniphase at 70 (now 3.13). The best and brightest, the Masters of the Universe. Many professionally managed pension funds are in questionable shape now because they listened to these people.
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(11/12/2004; 12:56:16 MDT - Msg ID: 126347)
Another day, another dollar? Exchange today's papery harvest for timeless value!
http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.html

Swiss gold francs

Harvest Time
Whatever it is that you may have sown,
we'll give you the power to reap GOLD.

1-800-869-5115
USAGOLD-Centennial has over three decades of experience in the field!

Rimh
(11/12/2004; 13:03:22 MDT - Msg ID: 126348)
USD continues to slide
Watching the waterfall as it cascades down to new lows - where will it stop?
Gatekeeper
(11/12/2004; 13:10:16 MDT - Msg ID: 126349)
(No Subject)
Sir Clink, Perhaps you ought to read this humble offering?
misetich
(11/12/2004; 13:34:43 MDT - Msg ID: 126350)
United States: Business Conditions - Soft Patch or Moderate Growth?
http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/latest-digest.htmlSnip:

Richard Berner and Shital Patel (New York)

Business conditions decelerated in early November, according to the Morgan Stanley Business Conditions Index (MSBCI), following three months of volatility that have obscured the underlying trend.
................
Analyst Commentary by S&P Major Sector

Consumer Discretionary:
.... while the group continued to increase prices charged.
......... Employment over the past three months was mixed, but most groups plan on hiring over the next three months. No groups plan to increase capex.
..............
Consumer Staples:

Packaged food and beverage companies have increased prices over the past year, but household and personal care and food retailers have reduced them. Hiring plans are stable while the beverages companies plan to increase capex by 0-3% over the next 3 months.

Energy:

.......... and they raised prices charged by 3% or more over the past year.
..... the companies have plans to hire noticeably over the next three months. Oil services companies also have plans to increase capex by 10% or more.
Financials:

Prices were generally lower compared with a year ago. Bookings were lower for the mortgage finance companies. Large-cap banks were still cutting payrolls over the past three months although mortgage finance and multifamily REITs increased hiring somewhat. Mid cap banks plan to hire somewhat and increase capex by 0-3% over the next three months.
..........
Healthcare:

Three of the four groups increased prices charged by 3% or more. Hiring plans are flat for the group while healthcare distribution companies plan to increase capex by 0-3% over the next three months.
................
Industrials:

Most groups increased prices charged, with the exception of business services and airlines.
......... All groups, with the exception of airlines and air freight and surface transportation companies, plan to increase capex over the next 1-6 months. Hiring plans are generally strong for the group.
.............

Information Technology:
........as conditions improved, and prices charged, bookings, hiring, and hiring plans all increased. .............. also plan to increase capex by 6-10% over the next three months.
..............
Materials:
All three groups increased prices charged by 3% or more. Hiring plans are flat for the sector, while the paper and forest products companies plan to increase capex by 10% or more.
.............
Telecommunications Services:
.......and prices charged continued to decline by 3% or more from a year ago. The telecom services companies were still cutting payrolls over the past three months and have no plans to step up hiring over the next three.
..........
Utilities:
.......... while prices charged continued to increase by 3% or more from a year ago. Utilities continue to cut payrolls over the past three months, and have no plans to increase hiring over the next three, although they do plan to increase capex by 3-6% over the next 1-6 months.
***********
Misetich

Real Price Inflation fuelled by higher energy and commodity prices, higher import prices continues almost across all industries, and its effects are ONLY beginning in the initial phase....and jobs are nowhere to be found as October's tax receipts provide ample proof of non-existent individual tax receipts increase by the US Treasury - though hundreds of "jobs" were announced to have been created...

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
Gandalf the White
(11/12/2004; 13:36:12 MDT - Msg ID: 126351)
TODAY's -----"KING of the HILL" -----report ! <;-)
TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA
AND the "KING of the HILL" today is:

Sir Glockmaster19 !!!
CAN Sir Glockmaster19 "hold" the HILL for one more day ?
Monday's Settlement is the one that we await !
---
$$$$ $438.2 $$$$ glockmaster19 (11/9/04; 16:05:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 126213
===

COMEX December '04 Gold Contract (GCZ04)
Open = $437.5 HIGH = $439.5 low = $435.0
SETTLEMENT = $438.3 CHANGE +$2.9
melda laure
(11/12/2004; 13:56:11 MDT - Msg ID: 126352)
Perhaps pri-vation is a better word.
As it now stands, the "trust fund" has absolutely no assets whatsoever. We "trust" that congress will beg borrow and steal whatever monies are necessary come the day they are called for. It is not a trust "fund" but a trust "liability".

For anyone (be he Vala or VP) to say otherwise is to perpetuate a lie that has been told for many years now. Yet, to be fair, it is hard to see how you could make the situation worse since the amount of benefits that are to be paid is the real measure of the liability - not the quantity of funds that have been squandered elsewhither.

If the trust fund were an "asset" then Enron would still be in business.

Indeed you cant take it with you - (why anyone would want to just baffles me), the question is whether you will leave anything behind. Mercy (in this life) is to be able to stop. The gift to Men in this life is to eventually leave it. The curse of hell (if you like) is that it never ends, as indeed some must bear the burden of this existence for many long years. To leave gold behind is no dishonor. To bequeath fiat is to leave an account receivable- at the least a more dubious asset.



USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(11/12/2004; 14:33:10 MDT - Msg ID: 126353)
Learn more about gold IRA rollovers and transfers.
http://www.usagold.com/IRA.html
George Cooper at USAGOLD-Centennial Precious Metals can help steer you through the process. Click URL above for more information, and call for a free consultation.
Topaz
(11/12/2004; 15:21:57 MDT - Msg ID: 126354)
alt Currency Gold.
http://www.futuresource.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=GC&o=100/DX&a=M&z=610x300&d=LOW&b=LINE&st=Well, the "Basket" Index @ 1.19 (it now takes 119 Dollars to acquire 100 Baskets) indicates PaperGold is humming along in sync with it's alt currency "equivalents".
What astounds me is this apparent acquessence (sp?) by "foreigners" in handing a "get out of Jail free" card to the US economy ... A D9 Cat in every European driveway?... if you get my drift!
Imo, the best way to view these so-called Currency Wars is in the context of opposing NFL Football teams who, in spite of intense rivalry "on the Field", will band together as one when their pre-eminent "code" is threatened from "outside" by, say Soccer.
...and so it goes.
USAGOLD Daily Market Report
(11/12/2004; 15:58:16 MDT - Msg ID: 126355)
Page Update!
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Daily Gold Market Report has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.


Closing Excerpts:

A drop in the U.S. dollar and continued violence in Iraq ... encouraged an element of safe-haven positioning ahead of the weekend.

Against this backdrop, Comex December gold futures closed up $2.90 for the session at $438.30.

"Gold continues to maintain its strong uptrend and, at this point, the commodity funds and individual traders have no reason not to bid up the price in anticipation of a move to $450 an ounce," said Dale Doelling, chief market commentator at Bullion.com in Chicago.

"Talk that the Bush administration's resolve regarding a strong dollar may be waning just helped to add fuel to the selling of the greenback," he said. The dollar has stabilized from historical lows hit this week, but its tone is negative as focus remains on U.S. deficits.

From here, the next significant point on the technical chart for gold prices is $446, the monthly high back in 1983, said Doelling.

"A close above that would probably put the market into overdrive, taking it well above $500," he said.

"A close below $432 would signal that a short-term top may have been made, but that would not negate the long-term trend."

...Spot gold was also carried higher and hit $439.05 an ounce and the highest level since 1988 late morning in New York. "There were a lot of things supporting gold today and they don't look like they're going away over the weekend. They'll still be in place going forward," said a dealer with a New York-based European investment bank.

Aside from concerns over the weakening U.S. currency and geopolitical turbulence, one new supportive factor for gold is the pending launch of two major gold Exchange Traded Funds which are expected to tap into any pools of demand among U.S. investors hitherto unprepared or ill-equipped to invest in the commodity markets.

The World Gold Council's streetTRACKS gold fund is expected to be launched on the New York Stock Exchange in the coming weeks, while Barclays Global Investors are seen launching the iShares Comex Gold Trust on the American Stock Exchange shortly after. Both offer exposure to the bullion market in the form of a gold-backed security.

"There is a sense that if these things take off there'll be new sources of demand, so that was helping sentiment in the market today," said George Gero, a senior vice president at Legg Mason Wood Walker.

-----(see url for access to full news, 24-hr international newswire)----
TownCrier
(11/12/2004; 16:04:18 MDT - Msg ID: 126356)
HEADLINE: Dubai and India form new exchange to facilitate gold trade
http://www.metimes.com/2K4/issue2004-46/bus/dubai_and_india.htmdubai, nov 9

Dubai, the self-styled "City of Gold", and India, the world's largest consumer of the yellow metal, are forming a Dubai Gold and Commodity Exchange (DGCX) to become operational in the second half of 2005, officials announced Tuesday.

The Dubai Metals and Commodities Centre (DMCC), Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd (MCX) and Financial Technologies (India) Ltd (FTIL) have signed a memorandum of understanding to create the exchange in Dubai, a significant player on the international gold market which provides a gateway to India, where 700 tons of physical gold are consumed annually.

"This landmark achievement unfolds the real potential of the Indian technology expertise and the domain knowledge of its human intellectual capital," said Jignesh Shah, MCX managing director and FTIL chairman.

Colin Griffith, DMCC's executive director for gold and precious metals sector, said "I believe the initiative we're undertaking will increase the total size of Dubai's gold trade."

----(from url)----

Simply another article on this previously covered news.

R.
TownCrier
(11/12/2004; 16:13:05 MDT - Msg ID: 126357)
China shifting to consumer economy
http://www.advisor.ca/news/today/article.jsp%3Bjsessionid=DHGBDIFENAPI?content=20041112_150315_3896(November 12, 2004) -- ...China is now beginning its transformation into a consumer-driven economy, as prosperity moves inland from the industrialized coastline.

...Of course, investing in China carries the same risks, to varying degrees, as any other foreign investment, including currency valuation risks.

-----(from url)----

Bottom line: coupled with the increasingly liberalized gold market in China, this bodes well for gold.

R.
TownCrier
(11/12/2004; 16:17:31 MDT - Msg ID: 126358)
CNN Headline: Gold at 16-year high
http://money.cnn.com/2004/11/12/markets/gold/index.htm?cnn=yes NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Gold closed at a 16-year high in New York Friday...

Traders said gold had been "remarkably resilient" this week given the fall in oil prices and stocks surging to near 2-1/2 year highs, although the metal was still hooked mainly into currency moves.

"We have seen good interest from funds, along with some bouts of profit-taking. But whenever we see that, new customers are stepping in," David Holmes, vice-president at RBC Capital Markets said.

"The outlook for gold is positive and we have broken through some critical resistance levels."

Analysts said improved sentiment in gold was also linked to talk of the imminent listing in New York of a new exchange traded fund for the metal.

----(from url)-----

Gold slowly but surely gaining mainstream attention. Lock in your claim while prices remain at undervalued levels.

R.
YGM
(11/12/2004; 16:29:19 MDT - Msg ID: 126359)
Gandy....
Sure you & the hobbits just had to pull the lever on Gold...First time I never wanted it to go up and wham!!! Oh well so much for my Queen :-))) Maybe if I hang around for another 5/6 yrs I'll connect one day....regards....YGM

"GO GOLD" & "GO GATA"...."GO HOBBITS"
Camel
(11/12/2004; 16:40:40 MDT - Msg ID: 126360)
@melda laure
I'm not exactly sure what you are referring to , but Social Security as an independent program regularly takes in more than it pays out, it runs a surplus , and has for many years. It is true that this surplus has regularly been used to fund other government activities, hence you sometimes hear the idea of putting the Trust Fund in a" lock box". It is also true that due to demographic changes, at some point in the future there will no longer be an annual surplus but an annual deficit and this deficit will have to be reconciled in some way.
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(11/12/2004; 16:53:07 MDT - Msg ID: 126361)
A risk-free request, helping you enter the gold market with grace and confidence.
http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html

Get a head start on the gold market!
phil288
(11/12/2004; 17:56:00 MDT - Msg ID: 126362)
new gold funds
Ok ladies and gentlemen I have a comment and question. It appears that next week there will be a new open end gold fund to be traded under the symbol GLD. After a year and a half of screwing around "they" pull this rabbit out of the hat just as gold has made a multi year high. Coincidence, I think not. Question for discussion is what is to prevent any entity from shorting this instrument and thus putting pressure on real gold through arbitrage? Since this is an open ended fund, always buying and selling real metal there would be a direct corelation between the fund and the real market. Do we not have the potential for an entity with deep pockets to short this indefinately, especially since no metal will ever have to be delivered, only payment made for any short losses. If these losses were covered by an entity which could print money at will, where is the upside? My cynicism runnith over. Help.
Paper Avalanche
(11/12/2004; 19:45:38 MDT - Msg ID: 126363)
1.498 Billion to go.....
http://www.interfax.com/com?id=5757170⁢em=ChinSNIP:

Tan explained that the trading procedure was simple, as gold is only sold through bank counters, and client just need to fill a anonymous purchase form. "We only conducted gold spot trading at present stage, and aren't considering deferred spot trading or futures trading for the near future." Tan explained CMB would not take risks, since regulations on these kinds of individual trading had not yet been released. As Interfax previously reported, the SGE launched a new trading form-deferred spot trading in August, which sparked industry insiders' predictions that China will soon allow gold futures trading.

Gaosai'er provided 100 kilograms of gold bars to Guangzhou Branch of CMB before September 22, the first day of private gold trading. "Those gold bars are traded now in local four sub-branches- Tiyudong, Tianhebei, Shimao, and Fanyu," told Tan. According to Tan, the gold trading fee was a base RMB 1.5/gram (USD 0.18/gram), clients should pay the bank RMB 3.5/gram (USD 0.42/gram) for processing fees, and clients will be paid RMB 2/gram (USD 0.24/gram) more if they sell gold back to the bank. There is only a RMB 1.5/gram (USD 0.18/gram) difference between processing fee and sales price per gram, explained Tan.

Furthermore, Tan revealed the CMB would probably start to offer individual bank loans based on gold at the end of this year, individual clients could mortgage gold to get loans from bank for to participate in the gold exchange. "It is the same principle as you mortgaging your property to get a loan to purchase another apartment using only a little cash. Individual clients only can pay cash worth only 10% of the total purchase price to buy gold, if they are offered bank loans worth 80% at most of total price with mortgaged gold bars," Tan said. He suggested this kind of bank loans could allow clients to exchange gold more conveniently. According to Tan, CMB is applying for permission to offer this bank loan service from China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC), China's bank regulator.

---------------------------

In the US you get a mortgage for a house. In China you now can get a mortgage for a purchase of PHYSICAL gold.

Interesting.

Take care.

PA
Paper Avalanche
(11/12/2004; 20:04:42 MDT - Msg ID: 126364)
@ phil288 - Rationale for the ETF
Greetings Sir Phil:

I have thought the same thing (that the ETF will be yet another tool by which TPTB suppress the paper price of gold) only to conclude that this is likely not the case. The reason I say this is that, if the ETF's role is to serve as another paper control on the POG, it is duplicative. There already exists a very effective and time-tested mechanism to paperize the POG a la the COMEX markets (i.e. there exist roughly fifty times the number of paper claims against a finite amount of deliverable, physical gold).

No, I believe that the ETF is a vehicle for the retail investor to latch on his / her 401k, IRA, paper savings, etc. to a ship that announced this week that it is leaving the harbor. You are correct. There is no coincidence in POG breaking through $435 this week and the announcement that the ETF will begin trading next week. It is as much a political move as it is a financial move. IMO, TPTB realize that gold is about to embark on the path predicted by Another and FOA and they want to provide the retail investor with a ready means by which he / she can participate in the meteoric rise in POG which we will soon witness. This is the first of the final three shoes to drop. The other two are:

* Opening of the IPE (Iranian Petroleum Exchange) in March 2005 where all trades will be made iin Euros.
* China de-pegs the Yuan from the dollar which could happen any day now.

I may be wrong. I often am.

Take care.

PA
OZ
(11/13/2004; 03:04:54 MDT - Msg ID: 126365)
(No Subject)
They talk GOLD on CNN, CNBC, JPM.....so watch out they will hit us again like last time. Just an opinion... from experience though; although it could be different this time.
ge
(11/13/2004; 04:13:59 MDT - Msg ID: 126366)
Chip Hanlon on currencies and gold
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/hanlon110904.html"Keep in mind, however, that this article is being written largely in an effort to help those that want to hold gold as a long-term investment stick with it in coming months by preparing them for the volatility we will almost certainly face." �

"�that investors who don't yet own gold, but want to, shouldn't get cute in trying to save a few dollars by picking some clever pullback. Those investors need to take action and simply get in."

"�a 2-year chart of gold over the course of 2002-2003�"�."What I suspect many investors have by now forgotten is the sharp pullback that followed; as can also be seen, the metal retraced that entire advance, retreating back into the mid-$320's. This is classic technical action-classic."

"So, you may be asking: is Hanlon suggesting we're going to see a quick spurt toward the $500 level, then a pullback all the way back here to $430 or so?"�

"A long-term chart of the dollar shows something very important: there is huge, I mean HUGE, dollar support near 80 on that same index, an area where a massive triple-bottom was built over the course of 5 years on the early 1990's."�" If I'm right, the dollar's breakdown will lead it to push down toward the 80 level, but I do not believe for a second that this support zone will go down without a fight."

"Now, I know it's hard to imagine what could allow the dollar to mount a meaningful rally from here; heck, we're even seeing some of the mainstream Wall Street firms warn that the dollar might be due for a fall� they're 3 years and a 30% decline late to the party, of course, but thanks for the warning, guys."
Ned
(11/13/2004; 04:51:27 MDT - Msg ID: 126367)
'GLD'.....the new ETF
P.A., phil288,

Glad that this discussion is coming up. I don't follow the paper mechanisms very closely so I haven't the foggiest if this new ETF is going to be good or bad for POG.

Maybe Ari, T.C, miner49 and the other folks that follow these markets can offer their opinions.

The one thing that does bother me is that the engineer of this business is the WGC. That bothers me a lot, when is the last time they have done anything positive for gold? BTW, where is Chris Thompson? I thought he was going to be the savior of the World Gold Council.

TIA
Great Albino Bat
(11/13/2004; 05:43:56 MDT - Msg ID: 126368)
A story for today. From the land of money's shadow...


The Shadow � a story by Hans Christian Andersen

Once upon a time, there was a handsome young man, of good family; he was intelligent and studious, quiet and gentlemanly. The young man had a Shadow, and since he was given to solitary life, he used to talk with his Shadow. He talked about many things, life and death, work and play, and about all things human. The Shadow always agreed with him, for that is they way shadows are.

There was a lovely young princess who lived across the street from him. From his balcony he could see her, and listen to her playing the piano. But, he could not speak to her - they had not been introduced. As he leaned from his balcony, he saw that his shadow reached across the way, to the princess� apartment. "Go across, dear Shadow, and speak to the princess of my love."

So the Shadow left the young man, and went to the princess. He talked with amazing wisdom and wit, which he had learned from his master. The princess was enchanted. She fell in love with the Shadow. And the Shadow, instead of speaking to her about his master's love for her, courted her for himself. Soon they were engaged to be married.

The young man heard of this. He was outraged. "What! A Shadow marrying a king's daughter! This cannot be!" He went to the newspapers with the news. The king's police heard about this, and arrested the young man for defaming the king's prospective son-in-law and future heir.

So the young man was hanged.

+++++

And what does this have to do with gold?

Well, you see, paper money is gold's Shadow. Once upon a time, the Shadow was nothing, only a representation of gold payable upon demand. Then, the Shadow slipped away on its own. It imitated its Master in everything, and so people took it for something on its own, and forgot the Master � gold.

And now the Shadow struts about as if it were worth something, but it is still nothing. And the Master, Gold, has practically had to go begging.

And we all pay our deepest respects to the paper Shadow, and apologize for our interest in his poor ex-Master, Gold. So now, the whole world revolves upon the health of � a cursed, vain and pompous Shadow.

Such is the world. Hans Christian Andersen � a very wise and good Dane.

The GAB


Gandalf the White
(11/13/2004; 10:19:01 MDT - Msg ID: 126369)
"THANK YOU" Sir GAB
The Hobbits love your stories !
<;-)
Gandalf the White
(11/13/2004; 10:53:34 MDT - Msg ID: 126370)
OOPS !! ---- I forgot to tell you --- "BREAKOUT" !!!!!!!
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=$GOLD,PLTB[PA][DA][F!3!!]⪯f=GThe GOLD P&F Chart is now showing what we have been awaiting ! The SKY is now the limit ! The GOLD P&F Chart now shows the BREAKOUT, with the BULLISH Price Objective of $476. (or is that $478.)--- as my eyes are still watering !
OK, for only two Dollars difference, I won't "fuss" !
JUMP SPOT, JUMP !!
<;-)
Smeagol
(11/13/2004; 11:50:51 MDT - Msg ID: 126371)
That not so golden Shadow...

Sir GAB - "And we all pay our deepest respects to the paper Shadow, and apologize for our interest in his poor ex-Master, Gold. So now, the whole world revolves upon the health of � a cursed, vain and pompous Shadow."

...sss... and are the physical Gold-holders to take the blame and be 'hanged' by the Powers then, when (para-phrasing)-

"He went to the newspapers with the (Truth). The king's police heard about this, and arrested (Gold) for defaming the king's (Gold-shadow). So the (Gold-holder) was hanged." ?

S.

441.7 ... 441.7 ... 441.7 ...

Gandalf the White
(11/13/2004; 13:06:26 MDT - Msg ID: 126372)
Sir Smeagol ---
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$XAU,uu[h,a]daoayiay[dc][pb200!f][vc60][iut!Uh89,21!Lp88,21,3]⪯f=GHaving looked at ALL the charts, (including this one on the $XAU), and even trying Sir Rich's trick with a Rhode Island "RED", I am concluding that Monday's GOLD action will be very similar to that of Friday, and your CHANT (441.7 ... 441.7 ... 441.7 ...) will be VERY CLOSE !
BUT, maybe just a little short !
<;-)
Gandalf the White
(11/13/2004; 13:09:52 MDT - Msg ID: 126373)
Reminder of the POG --- FINAL OFFICIAL ENTRY LISTINGS
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ THE "PRICE of GOLD" GUESSING CONTEST!! $$$$$$$$$$$$

TAA TAA TAAAAAAAAAAAAA, TAA TAA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !

Listed in order of decreasing values !
----

$$$ $8,752.0 $$$ The Invisible Hand (11/6/04; 02:45:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 126118)

$$$ $1,200.0 $$$ LimitUp (11/10/04; 21:44:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 126289)

$$$$ $575.2 $$$$ Sprout (11/5/04; 15:19:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 126103)

$$$$ $499.0 $$$$ Caradoc (11/6/04; 04:35:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 126120)

$$$$ $467.0 $$$$ jenika (11/6/04; 05:55:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 126122)

$$$$ $456.5 $$$$ Gene (11/5/04; 11:03:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 126096)

$$$$ $454.5 $$$$ mackattack (11/6/04; 18:24:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 126127)

$$$$ $452.7 $$$$ Dollar Bill (11/10/04; 17:58:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 126272)

$$$$ $451.6 $$$$ mikal (11/5/04; 13:35:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 126099)

$$$$ $450.1 $$$$ Cometose (11/7/04; 13:14:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 126136)
$$$$ $450.0 $$$$ Lothar of the Hill People (11/5/04; 14:19:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 126101)
$$$$ $449.9 $$$$ slingshot (11/8/04; 16:12:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 126172)

$$$$ $448.8 $$$$ Toolie (11/7/04; 14:32:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 126137)

$$$$ $448.1 $$$$ Buongiorno! (11/9/04; 10:25:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 126196)

$$$$ $447.5 $$$$ Waverider (11/07/04; 01:23:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 126130)

$$$$ $447.3 $$$$ GratefulForGold (11/10/04; 21:01:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 126287)

$$$$ $446.9 $$$$ HOOSIER GOLDBUG (11/9/04; 15:27:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 126211)

$$$$ $446.3 $$$$ Sundeck (11/6/04; 04:20:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 126119)

$$$$ $445.2 $$$$ J-Bullion (11/8/04; 14:12:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 126167)

$$$$ $444.5 $$$$ DoubleEagle (11/8/04; 02:27:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 126152)
$$$$ $444.4 $$$$ Zhisheng (11/4/04; 10:56:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 126063)
$$$$ $441.1 $$$$ makcumka (11/10/04; 06:27:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 126242)
$$$$ $444.0 $$$$ Shapur (11/9/04; 13:22:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 126204)

$$$$ $443.2 $$$$ Rimh (11/9/04; 09:45:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 126188)

$$$$ $442.5 $$$$ Noble1 (11/5/04; 18:23:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 126110)

$$$$ $442.1 $$$$ Gandalf the White (11/10/04; 18:56:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 126278)

$$$$ $441.7 $$$$ Smeagol (11/5/04; 17:15:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 126105)

$$$$ $441.0 $$$$ Druid (11/10/04; 21:31:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 126288)

$$$$ $440.8 $$$$ Shermag (11/9/04; 11:36:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 126199)

$$$$ $440.0 $$$$ shawnis (11/8/04; 20:28:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 126175)

$$$$ $439.8 $$$$ Golden Era (11/10/04; 05:29:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 126239)

$$$$ $439.6 $$$$ Rustee (11/5/04; 09:02:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 126086)

$$$$ $439.4 $$$$ goldquest (11/10/04; 19:38:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 126280)

$$$$ $439.2 $$$$ Goldendome (11/9/04; 21:38:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 126230)

$$$$ $438.9 $$$$ Liberty Head (11/5/04; 21:37:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 126116)
$$$$ $438.8 $$$$ Rocky (11/9/04; 17:52:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 126218)

$$$$ $438.5 $$$$ White Hills (11/10/04; 11:52:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 126260)

$$$$ $438.2 $$$$ glockmaster19 (11/9/04; 16:05:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 126213)

$$$$ $437.7 $$$$ Canuck Gold (11/9/04; 22:40:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 126234)

$$$$ $437.5 $$$$ Felix the Cat (11/9/04; 19:53:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 126222)

$$$$ $437.0 $$$$ innerline (11/10/04; 11:35:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 126259)

$$$$ $436.8 $$$$ goldenpeace (11/10/04; 16:18:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 126270)

$$$$ $436.5 $$$$ pilgrims_gold (11/10/04; 06:12:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 126241)

$$$$ $436.0 $$$$ killerjay_47 (11/10/04; 10:06:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 126253)

$$$$ $435.5 $$$$ YGM (11/7/04; 09:39:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 126133)

$$$$ $435.0 $$$$ Camel (11/10/04; 14:16:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 126264)

$$$$ $434.5 $$$$ balzac (11/9/04; 09:58:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 126190)

$$$$ $434.3 $$$$ Tevye (11/10/04; 12:36:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 126261)

$$$$ $434.0 $$$$ Black Blade (11/10/04; 20:57:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 126286)

$$$$ $433.8 $$$$ R Powell (11/10/04; 15:50:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 126268)

$$$$ $433.5 $$$$ timbervision (11/10/04; 20:23:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 126283)

$$$$ $433,3 $$$$ Shanti (11/8/04; 14:53:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 126169)

$$$$ $433.0 $$$$ Gondolin (11/10/04; 03:13:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 126237)

$$$$ $432.5 $$$$ John the Jute (11/9/04; 08:41:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 126187)

$$$$ $432.0 $$$$ TheJuniorMiner (11/10/04; 08:55:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 126248)

$$$$ $431.6 $$$$ servantHeart (11/5/04; 10:26:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 126092)

$$$$ $431.0 $$$$ DryWasher (11/4/04; 16:13:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 126074

$$$$ $430.2 $$$$ GoldCoaster (11/10/04; 22:57:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 126292)

$$$$ $429.9 $$$$ Wky_Woodsman (11/10/04; 20:43:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 126284)

$$$$ $429.5 $$$$ The Hoople (11/9/04; 12:08:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 126200)
$$$$ $429.4 $$$$ Legolas (11/9/04; 20:49:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 126226)

$$$$ $429.1 $$$$ mudr (11/7/04; 21:59:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 126147)

$$$$ $428.4 $$$$ NTgeo (11/10/04; 20:52:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 126285)

$$$$ $427.0 $$$$ Clink! (11/7/04; 12:25:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 126135)

$$$$ $426.5 $$$$ Topaz (11/4/04; 16:13:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 126075)

$$$$ $425.5 $$$$ wehappyfew (11/10/04; 19:27:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 126279)

$$$$ $424.5 $$$$ 7nomads (11/10/04; 18:42:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 126276)

$$$$ $424.2 $$$$ Tranquility Base (11/10/04; 17:50:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 126271)

$$$$ $423.2 $$$$ Tiburon (11/10/04; 20:20:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 126282)

$$$$ $422.3 $$$$ The Knife (11/5/04; 10:03:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 126089)

$$$$ $419.5 $$$$ Golden Lionheart (11/7/04; 17:13:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 126140)

$$$$ $000.0 $$$$ TomJIl (11/6/04; 16:21:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 126126)

===
<;-)

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(11/13/2004; 15:33:49 MDT - Msg ID: 126374)
Real gold, real easy!
http://www.usagold.com/buy-gold-coins.html

gold -- a global calling card
Smeagol
(11/13/2004; 15:45:11 MDT - Msg ID: 126375)
Of Wizards and Dollarfalls... and a hai-ku too

We thinks you has as much fun (maybe more, precious), O Whitest of Wizards, watching Dollarfall, than Goldrise! (cackle)

As for our Guess... yess, we felt need to light a little fire under it... we knows it will get there eventually, we jusst needs it there a bit sooner... ssay on Monday close! (grin)

S.

...which smothers the rock
breaking blades that cut paper...
Gold prices them all.
Noble1
(11/13/2004; 16:11:37 MDT - Msg ID: 126376)
POG Contest

Sir Gandalf,

Thanks for your efforts in updating and managing these contests. No small task. As I peruse the list and associate the handles (previous posts) and guesses (bullish and bearish) it's a motley crew I see. I enjoy the diversity. Thanks---everybody for your contributions to this forum.

The last few times I've seen Sir makcumba he has appeared rather uncomfortable. Perhaps you can give him a pillow or simply reposition him.

Remember:

Usually, when prospecting, the odds are long but the stakes are high and we associate the find with tangible value. Ask anyone to define a prospector and they will describe a goldminer.

Noble1




American Expression
(11/13/2004; 16:32:46 MDT - Msg ID: 126377)
Putin Planning Giant Superpower Coalition
http://www.indiadaily.com/editorial/11-10-04.asp
Russian President Putin planning to glue together the most powerful superpower coalition in the world - India, China, Russia and Brazil

By Sudhir Chadda
Special Correspondent
India Daily.com
11-11-4

Russian President Putin is taking a lead role in putting together the most powerful coalition of regional and superpowers in the world. The coalition consists of India, China, Russia and Brazil. This will challenge the superpower supremacy of America as well as the European Union. The Chinese are concerned about American and European influence over the world. So is India, Brazil and Russia. Russians need Brazil badly. Brazil is in South America in the American corridor. According to Stratfor, a strategic think tank, when Russian President Vladimir Putin visits Brazil Nov. 21-23, he likely will talk economic issues with Brazilian President Luiz Inacio "Lula" da Silva. However, Putin has bigger ambitions: He wants to establish a long-term Russian footprint in Latin America in order to expand Moscow's geopolitical influence in the region. Brazil is very open to the coalition concept where these large countries support each other in term of trade, economics, international politics and defense.

According other think tanks, this coalition will have an overwhelming influence over the United Nations. Russia and China are permanent members of the security council. India and Brazil are in the process of becoming the same. In terms of population, the coalition will have three quarters of the world population, largest amount of natural resources and largest pool of technical and scientific talent.
American Expression
(11/13/2004; 16:34:36 MDT - Msg ID: 126378)
Russia selling dollars to diversify currency reserves - Putin`s economic adviser
http://www.gateway2russia.com/art.p...nt=&grandparent
By selling US dollars and securities and assets denominated in the US currency, Russia is diversifying its currency reserves, which is in line with the Russian Central Bank's policy, Andrey Illarionov, economic adviser to the Russian president, said in an interview with ITAR-TASS today. Illarionov is taking part in an international conference "Capital expansion: from a national to a transnational economy" which is being held here. (NWO, hint, hint!)

The Russian expert expressed this view following reports in the British media today saying that Russia, India and China are getting rid of their dollar assets and that this may lead to the dollar exchange rate falling further. According to Illarionov, over the last few days the Russian Central Bank has made no secret of its intention to expand the basis of its currency reserves, including by investing currency reserves in the acquisition of euros.

Source: ITAR-TASS news agency, Moscow
BBC Monitoring
American Expression
(11/13/2004; 16:38:37 MDT - Msg ID: 126379)
Another Default Possible in Russia
http://www.pravda.us/main/18/89/358/10771_default.htmlSNIPPET:

About 80 percent of Russia's reserve funds - more than $64 billion - are being currently stored in foreign banks in the form of the US Treasury liabilities and other "stocks." Russian money is working for Americans. Saving money in someone else's pockets is a very interesting thing to do. Do Kremlin officials know what is going to happen, if they attempt to invest that money in Russia? It would be enough to recollect the events of the year 1917. The world's largest country had a self-sufficient economy and the richest gold reserve. The national currency was converted on the base of the gold standard. As a result, the foreign capital started developing the Russian national wealth very actively, and the golden money started flowing abroad. Then the country experienced a "small" revolution. Sly people advised the country's ruler to transfer gold reserves to foreign banks to get out of harm's way. The interest was saved for six years, then there was a world war, a "bigger" revolution, the collapse of the state, the execution of the Tsar.. Western banks simply appropriated the Russian gold - towards the debt and their citizens' losses

Is there a need to repeat history? A "small" revolution in the form of the default took place in August of 1998. The golden reserve has been taken abroad too. One shall assume, one should prepare for a "bigger revolution" to happen. Probably, the affair with five billion dollars will pale in comparison.

Nikolay Konkov
Gandalf the White
(11/13/2004; 16:50:44 MDT - Msg ID: 126380)
Thanks Sir Noble1 --- <;-)
ALL this time Sir Zhisheng was HUGGING him tightly -- and I missed that he was out of place !
I have Sir Druid hugging him NOW !
<;-)
Noble1
(11/13/2004; 21:07:25 MDT - Msg ID: 126381)
ETFs

Ned, P.A., Phil288,

I'm glad you are continuing this discussion on the ETFs. My gut feeling is that they will be gold positive (i.e. contribute to an increasing price of gold).

Given KISS - they're a good thing. As I understand "them", (actually "it" as I am referring only to what I know about the WGC GLD fund), they require fiat to be exchanged for physical. FIAT-FOR-PHYSICAL. KISS. Unlimited supply chasing limited supply. KISS-supply/demand.

KISS:

-Gold: has a known and predictable increase in supply that is relatively stable. Stable supply is the constant.

-Fiat: Bernanke "We have something known as a printing press..." we all know where that goes.

-Demand for gold is unpredictable. But, right now, being the goldbugs that we are, I think we can all agree that we face increasing demand.

Regardless.

-What we do know is: Keep It Simple Stupid

increased demand/stable supply=increased value

decreased demand/stable supply=decreased value

no change demand/stable supply=no change value

But wait a minute. Stable supply? We all know that CBs and BBs and some unnamed mining companies have been dumping onto the market both real and imagined gold. Doesn't that affect the supply side of the equation? Of course it has. The key word is "has". They were able to flood the market, as needed, with physical (London sales, carry trade sales, Fort Knox?[I'd like an audit please]) and of course paper derivatives (they had no trouble finding suitable mining counterparties to replace physical) as CBs wield much influence. "HAS"=was happening. Resulted in $250 gold. Now let's look at what "IS" happening-We are currently seeing a crack in the dam with mining companies, U-NO-WHO, firing staff, reversing hedgebooks/buying to cover, and CB gold sales becoming more transparent and limited (who's the seller nowww???) and yes, CBs buying! $438 gold. +++ETFs.

Granted, the physical in the ETF must be entrusted to a depository. But that's where the R&F keep theirs. I have always preferred to take physical gold in possession. However, there are many individuals and entities that are either unable or unwilling to perform that task. And their funds dwarf ours. The ETFs give the first opportunity for the masses of IRAs, 401Ks, regular brokerage account holders, others, to buy and sell the closest thing to physical gold that I have ever seen, in a manner in which they are accustomed (through their current broker). Kinda goes back to a century+ ago when gold was money and banks were allowed to issue script backed by physical. We all know what happened then. Not good. That's where I'm counting on (hoping) that the SEC has taken it's time to insure that the paper share is as described. If they work as advertised, each share will represent 1/10th oz. of physical gold on deposit. No more, no less. What remains to be seen is if this encumbrence of the physical gold tightens the physical supply and removes it from the papergold market. I hadn't considered Phil288's assertation that these shares can be shorted by the fiat crowd-thus continuing their manipulative practices. Again, my gut feeling is that the transparency in the NYSE would illuminate these transactions and make them more difficult to accomplish with any degree of long term success. Even if these shares are shorted, it is much less invasive than other derivative insruments that are currently being employed. Short sales must be covered. They don't simply just expire. (Who cares if it expires worthless- worthless by who's calculation- it was accomplished for some goal-by fiat-in unlimited supply at virtually no cost). Short sales, however, are visible and must be covered. As we all know "he who sells what isn't his'n must buy it back or go to pris'n".

Yes, my friends, I feel it is the time of the season. If the WGC were in collusion with the PTB to suppress the POG, this product would have been allowed into the market long ago and done it's job. Instead, it's introduction has been delayed and delayed until, well, they no longer could delay it. All I know is that the new found funds are going to enter the into the demand side of the equation for physical. Now, the PTB may have already entered this into their calculations and that may have been factored into and the reason for the recent run-up in the POG. Believe me, they have secured all the physical that they feel is necessary to meet the demand that is coming and if they need more, they will lower the lease rate and encourage mining counterparties to sell and commit future production so they can provide immediate supply.(Or confiscate?---consider historic gold coins when buying). But what if they have they secured all that they can but not all that is necessary? What if the demand outstrips the supply? OOOOh. That's the makings of a super bull market. That's where I feel we're headed folks. As mentioned previously, we've seen them try to flood the past market. Absorbed. Now we're seeing timidity and a slow bullish progression. With the ETFs, we're going to see a sharp increase in the demand side of the equation, a corresponding attempt to supply (flood) and scare out the weaklings--carrying with it a short term correction---, followed by an overwhelming demand side bid for physical that can only be met by significantly higher prices.

PG in possesion will always be the ultimate form of security and privacy. Keep that in mind. An ounce of gold will always be an ounce of gold-valued by someone-tradeable/saleable in private. I agree with "W", social scurity should be partially privitized. ETFs won't do it. Talk to our host about PGIP before the ETFs run up the price. Keep that PGIP as a wealth asset to draw upon (quietly) as you need it in your retirement or pass it on to your heirs. Gold's role as a wealth asset will become more apparent as the emperor (USD) is revealed. The current POG, as Alfred E. Neuman would say is "CHEAP".

More Later.

Remember:

The value of fiat is determined by it's

1) decree

2) ability to maintain it's value (not be inflated by it's
issuer)

3) confidence that it will be accepted by others, in the future, at a price that corresponds to the value you traded for it

consider

1) not going to change

2) who are you kidding

3) the wild card

Considering #3. If/and/or when that confidence is lost, gold will be the primary alternative/beneficiary.

Noble1
YGM
(11/14/2004; 00:37:49 MDT - Msg ID: 126382)
Preachers and "Teachers"
Thank goodness us preachers are outnumbered by "Teachers" here! I never missed high school, but I always missed this place when away...My education does improve, thanks to this round table of thinkers and scribes....YGM
Sundeck
(11/14/2004; 04:06:05 MDT - Msg ID: 126383)
MK's question and Barrick's hedge-book.
Further to my earlier posts on this subject @ msgs 126323, 126315 and 126297:

A simple estimation of the effect of Barrick's hedge-book on their future viability can be gained from the following:

1. From their last quarterly report their gross sales for the quarter were $500M, from 1.23M oz of gold.

2. Their net profit after tax was $32M, amounting to 6.4% of sales.

3. This figure of $32M was after an "opportunity cost" of $9M incurred by the voluntary reduction of their hedge-book by 200,000 oz during the quarter.

4. Had Barrick not reduced their hedge-book by the 200,000 oz, their after tax profit would have been about $41M, corresponding to 8.2% of sales.

5. Now...consider that Barrick has about 86 M oz in proven and probable reserves (which they are depleting at about 5-6 M oz annually), approximately 72 M oz of which are unhedged. If we suppose that their margins remain unchanged over the lifetime of the operation, and no new reserves are added, then an 8.2% margin means their total life-of-mine profit (from unhedged gold) will be equivalent to the sale of 8.2% of 72 M oz, that is 5.9M oz, for which they are able to pocket the whole dollar amount as profit.

6. However...they are still hedged by 13.7 M oz which they have contracted to sell at some indefinite price, variable over time, but which is likely to turn out to be a lot less than the spot price of gold going forward.

7. If they can mine and sell this much gold without loss at their contracted prices, then they will still walk away at the end with a profit equivalent to, or greater than, the cost-free sale of 5.9M oz of gold.

8. However, as they emphasise in their quarterly report, input costs are "inflating". We do not know what realisable prices they have contracted, going forward, but it is not inconceivable that they may take sizeable losses on that 13.7 M oz of hedged gold. A 43% loss (equivalent to 5.9 M oz) would mean that their entire operation would just break even over its lifetime.

9. This all assumes that they do not add to their reserves (which they will).

10. Mixed up in all of this is the covenant relating to Consolidated Net Worth, that Boilermaker has drawn attention to. As time goes by, reserves are used up, margins get clipped, the calculation of CNW may lead to default. It is then that a deeply underwater hedge-book position would become an acute embarrassment (even though its losses are not explicitly included in the calculation of CNW).

11. My gut feeling is that funds from a bond issue will be used to reduce their hedge-book directly, although they could use it to buy additional low-cost-of-mining reserves, if such reserves can be sourced. Of course, everyone will be after gold (especially low-cost-of-mining reserves) going forward, so they will inevitably come at a premium price.

12. A bond issue gives Barrick time...essentially replacing (part of) a hedge-book that may blow-up in their face with a measured interest payment (depreciating in value over time due to inflation) and a repayment of principal which will be greatly depreciated in value. The bond holders will lose in the future, while Barrick either rids itself of part of its hedge-book "lemon" now or adds greatly appreciating gold reserves to its assets for increased exposure to the future price of gold.

13. Not a bad strategy, I would have thought...comments??

14. Another factor that may be considered is Barrick's perception of the likely outcome from the Blanchard case (they may be making provision now for what could be an "unpleasant" outcome).


FWIW and DYODD

:-)

Sundeck
American Expression
(11/14/2004; 08:43:16 MDT - Msg ID: 126384)
Europe's sinking feeling on rising euro
http://www.iht.com/articles/2004/11/12/business/euro.html
At its current rate of increase, the euro would hit $1.40 by the middle of January. At 4 p.m. Friday in New York, it was trading at $1.2973, down slightly from a record of $1.3005 set Wednesday.

"We have to accept that we are in a long-lasting dollar bear market that will drive the euro to new heights," said Thomas Mayer, the chief European economist at Deutsche Bank. "If it happens in an orderly way, Europe can handle it. If it comes as a shock, it will pull the seats out from under people."

END SNIP:

I remain in awe of many gold afficiondos misunderstandings of the internationational monetary system .... when federal reserve corp. dollar is dearly valued on FOREX, it usually indicates a US economy that is vibrant and performing very well, and the reward for a vibrant economy is inexpensive gold priced in dollars relative to the basket of derivative currencies .... when the US economy under performs, the dollars notional value declines, the price of gold in dollar terms rises along with the notional values of the ponzi derivative currencies ....

The Euro is not IMO a valid indicator of golds potential precisely because it is directly linked to price of gold much the same as US dollar .... the Euro actually obscures the potential "real" value of gold in international market terms.

The SF IMO is a much better indicator .... namely that price of gold SHOULD be declining in SF terms as price gold rises in dollar and Euro terms ....!

Hows that for a curve ball .....









American Expression
(11/14/2004; 09:01:13 MDT - Msg ID: 126385)
The Islamic Gold Dinar was officially launched on 7th November 2001
http://www.islamicmint.com/newsarticles/launch.html
SNIP:

The traditional Muslim coins and the deeper significance
of their reappearance as currency

The launch of the gold dinar and silver dirham marked a significant breakthrough in the coin's return into the realm of usage. The Islamic Gold Dinar was the currency of the Muslim community from its first years right up to the fall of the Osmanli Khalifate, and was ousted precisely by the persistent infiltration of non-Shari�i money instruments into the Muslim societies, by those forces wishing to harness the vast wealth of the Islamic homelands.

Because of the fundamental political consequences of the introduction of paper money instruments into the Ummah, the reintroduction of the gold money can be expected to be an equally significant milestone in the changing tides of the world economic � hence social � situation.

END SNIP

Key Words:

"the persistent 'infiltration' of non-Shari�i money instruments (Paper Money) into the Muslim societies, by 'those forces' wishing to 'harness the vast wealth' of the Islamic homelands"

"Money power denounces, as public enemies, all who question its methods or throw light upon its crimes." --Wm. Jennings Bryan

"History records that the money changers have used every form of abuse, intrigue, deceit, and violent means possible to maintain their control over governments by controlling money and it's issuance". -- James Madison
Liberty Head
(11/14/2004; 10:39:10 MDT - Msg ID: 126386)
The Golden Key

Inspired by GAB, I found a short story of gold for our enjoyment. This one is by the brothers Grimm.
______________

In the winter time, when deep snow lay on the ground, a poor boy was forced to go out on a sledge to fetch wood. When he had gathered it together, and packed it, he wished, as he was so frozen with cold, not to go home at once, but to light a fire and warm himself a little. So he scraped away the snow, and as he was thus clearing the ground, he found a tiny golden key.
Hereupon he thought that where the key was, the lock must be also, and dug in the ground and found an iron chest.
"If the key does but fit it!" thought he; "no doubt there are precious things in that little box." He searched, but no keyhole was there. At last he discovered one, but so small that it was hardly visible. He tried it, and the key fitted it exactly.
Then he turned it once round, and now we must wait until he has quite unlocked it and opened the lid, and then we shall learn what wonderful things were lying in that box.

____________

Ah yes! An open ended story for the holder of the golden key to finish, when the time is right.
Do you have your golden key?

Keys, get you some.

Best Wishes
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(11/14/2004; 13:58:33 MDT - Msg ID: 126387)
The having of gold conveys not only wealth, but a wisdom well beyond your years
http://www.usagold.com/buy-gold-coins.html

Golden Goal




"Treasure chests throughout history
have been filled with gold, and not by idle choice."

-- R. Strauss

R Powell
(11/14/2004; 15:32:30 MDT - Msg ID: 126388)
Something strange in the neighborhood
http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmxsf.htm For the second week in a row the commercials have increased their net long positions in both silver and gold. Only slightly in silver but bigtime in gold...?

Fwiw, in gold, the so-called large speculative traders, through the week ending 11/9/04, sold longs and added shorts to the tune of a net 16,458 fewer long positions. The commercials were net 13,581 contracts longer while the small specs added 2,877. Basically, if you believe the classification descriptions, the producers and end-users were bigtime buyers while the trend following speculative money was selling. It's not the usual scenario to see the specs selling so much while the POG is rising. It's usually the speculative money that drives up the price.

I know many don't care about such numbers but I believe some do. Any thoughts or comments?

P.S. Isn't Michael's birthday about this time of year? Happy belated or an early Happy wish to you!
rich
Ned
(11/14/2004; 15:59:45 MDT - Msg ID: 126389)
Don Coxe's latest call....
http://www.jonesheward.com/Commentary/p_Commentary.aspx...38 minutes of currencies, commodities and gold. Excellent listening.

From the mouth of the man.....USD is going down!

"Basic Points" (pdf) isn't bad either.
Gandalf the White
(11/14/2004; 17:06:25 MDT - Msg ID: 126390)
<;-)
AND their OFF and RUNNING !
Go SPOT GO !
Gandalf the White
(11/14/2004; 17:54:18 MDT - Msg ID: 126391)
And there is a NEW LOW for the US$ !
http://charts-d.quote.com:443/1002980432830?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=DX00Y∬erval=10&Ht=600&Wd=800&Display=2&Study=MA&Param1=13&Param2=0&Param3=&FontSize=10HERE is the LINK --- so that you too may watch the US$ ---
DIVE, DIVE, DIVE !
<;-)
Dollar Bill
(11/14/2004; 20:36:10 MDT - Msg ID: 126392)
.,.
Greetings American Expression, I think the guys at india times, are engageing in withful thinking. Not much of a superpower there financially.
When the euro cant take over reserve duties because of the immaturity of its financial system, how can india, russian china and brazil manage the trick?
Dollar Bill
(11/14/2004; 21:23:43 MDT - Msg ID: 126393)
.,.
The only way I could see russia, china, brazil and india join together is if the powers of the US dollar group and the euro group have agreed to allow it. And only because they are going to pass currency inflation bubbles around, and that group should and will take a turn. Right now the euro region is taking the hit, but really can india ever stand up to a currency rise in order to -share- the burden like the euro is now? I say no. And russia? I say no, Brazil? how can the population there stand that burden? China? it is said by the MIT group that in 10 years China will have 100 million --floating-- population. Meaning, there will be 100 million people without jobs or homes to live in. They arent going to disrupt the world order if they can help it !
What govt that is sane wants to deal with its millions of people all by themselves? During a recession I mean. Or depression. They are between a rock and a hard place.
The carrot the US group holds out is debt.
In troubled times to come, the present dollar order will handle the financial disorders and the countries that fall outside self maintenance, will be able to apply for loans and allowances, and when all the countries are on board, the pretense of paying back debt that the global central bankers give out, will gradually fall away to an --allowance system--. I think.
Topaz
(11/14/2004; 21:46:45 MDT - Msg ID: 126394)
@Rich
That data is from 11/2 Rich. They "should" put up 11/9 today ... however the "next" one ie: 11/16, will also prove VERY interesting. We watch!
Camel
(11/14/2004; 21:56:21 MDT - Msg ID: 126395)
@ Dollar Bill
You know , a strong currency is not all bad. Anyone who bought European Stocks or Bonds in the last 5 years is sitting pretty right now. I remember when FOA said he had completed transferring his assets to the Euro several years ago. That was when the Euro was at about at 87, now its at 128. Thats a pretty nice little gain just on the currency.

If your currency is weak it makes your exports easier to sell, and maybe will increase employment, so there is definitely an upside to a weak currency, especially if you have a big trade deficit like the US ,but with a strong currency you can buy more so you are richer.
Sundeck
(11/15/2004; 02:26:36 MDT - Msg ID: 126396)
What's up with spot?
http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/en/detail/_pages/charts/main.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1Hey...who startled Spot...he's at $439.6 as I write and on a tear...
Boilermaker
(11/15/2004; 06:29:45 MDT - Msg ID: 126397)
Dollar Strategy
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/wallenwein111204.htmlsnip;
"The Fed and Bush administration know that the euro's ultimate aim is by necessity to slowly attract foreign investors and central banks to the euro and away from the dollar. But they also know that an explosively upward rocketing euro will wreck the Europeans' major economies in a heartbeat. As a result, the US game is to allow the dollar to drop lower - and faster than the Europeans' fragile economies can tolerate!............The dollar-faction's best chances at regaining control, they believe, lie in speeding up that very process - way past the ECB's tolerance level - in an attempt to utterly destabilize the euro system, hoping for an eventual complete breakdown."


comment,
In the absence of US/Euro cooperation and coordination this may indeed become the US strategy. As Wallenwein suggests, a dangerous game of "chicken" on the world's monetary highway.
Boilermaker
(11/15/2004; 06:56:03 MDT - Msg ID: 126398)
Sundeck --- Barrick Hedges
Good summary of the extremely complex factors surrounding Barrick's hedge book. One needs a "black box" model to see the various scenarios that can emerge. Bottom line is that Barrick has turned a gold mine into a hedge fund and possibly a toxic waste dump. Hopefully the Blanchard suit will go forward and expose why and how this was done.
The profit opportunity loss on 13.7 million ounces of gold (mark-to-market loss) will keep Barrick's stock price down and make aquisitions with Barrick stock highly dilutive. Cash flow needs to fund existing mine development and their buyback program are probably driving Barrick into the debt market.

In any case it's an easy call for this goldbug, no way in my golden play.
Gandalf the White
(11/15/2004; 09:36:52 MDT - Msg ID: 126399)
YES !, Sir Sundeck --- Things were "LOOKING GOOD" ---
http://charts-d.quote.com:443/1002980432830?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=DX00Y∬erval=10&Ht=600&Wd=800&Display=2&Study=MA&Param1=13&Param2=0&Param3=&FontSize=10But that was early in the morn when GOLD was above $440. and just before the "Bookies" and the ESF boys got into the act !
Just look at the US$ games.
<;-(
Great Albino Bat
(11/15/2004; 10:14:21 MDT - Msg ID: 126400)
A thought for the day...
The Big Picture

It seems to me that we devote a great deal of time and thought to particular events and particular conditions in our world today, with little conception of the "big picture" that shows us the general state of our world.

My view: the world has devolved to a general socialistic condition, as a consequence of the devolution of banking from sounder conditions, to unsound conditions. The creation around the world in the course of the 20th Century, of institutions known as "Central Banks" allowed the world-wide growth of "fractional banking" and its corollary, issuance of so-called money.

This introduction of fictitious money around the world, produced the ousting of gold and silver as money, due to the inevitable operation of Gresham's Law � which stated in simple terms says, "Bad money drives good money out of circulation".

This pleased governments, especially those built upon the process of election of governments by popular votes. Paper money allowed governments to spend and thus buy votes. Quite simple!

As a result, the world is now in a situation where economic health is no longer something naturally occurring as a result of the productive efforts of individuals, but is seen as something which is to be obtained from government policies, and measured by "growth".

The world is now living on artificiality, for "growth" as a government policy is artificial and not real.

The world is on "LIFE SUPPORT". That is certainly not a natural condition. In fact, just as in the case of an individual on life-support, it is the prelude to death. That is the "big picture".

So, all the news I read about economic events today, I regard as reports on the results of "life support" for the economic world. Nothing more, and really of no consequence for the ultimate outcome, which will be the decease of the patient.

No need to read the papers every day. No need to consider whether this or that policy here or there, will be successful. The outcome is clear: "life support" precedes death.

Of course, we know that we must still strive to produce an income, and that gold in itself does not produce an income. It serves to conserve a part of our surplus, known as savings, regardless of its day-to-day fluctuations, for gold always has been, and always will be, as long as humans survive, very highly esteemed and its possessors will always be the first in line to obtain the necessary things to maintain life.

Let the world remain on "life support" as long as it can be done; we cannot alter the fact. What we can and should do, as reasonable beings, is to provide ourselves with the means of survival when "life support" must end, as end it must: we must each obtain a reserve of gold. Do so today, at whatever price, for the sake of yourself and your loved ones. Pay no attention to the infinite jabbering in the papers and on the T.V.

Keep the big picture in mind, and resolve to be happy!

The GAB

ge
(11/15/2004; 11:25:30 MDT - Msg ID: 126401)
Rubin, Rogoff Say Dollar Threatened by Mounting U.S. Deficits
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=aXU7mTwsBAyI&refer=us.
TownCrier
(11/15/2004; 11:36:03 MDT - Msg ID: 126402)
Fed funds trade at 2.06%, Federal Reserve intervenes
Mopping up U.S. Treasuries in the short mid-term, the Federal Reserve's trading desk today intervened in the open market, buying outright $1.198 billion in securities maturing between May 2008 and May 2009, thus 'permanently' injecting into the banking system's money supply fresh cash created expressly for this operation.

The Fed also today provided additional, 'temporary' reserves through 52-day repurchase agreements totalling $4 billion and used overnight repos to add $5 billion.

Thus is new money easily made and thus has the world's papery savings seen itself put into jeopardy and destruction on a migrating basis from nation to nation. When the turn comes to your own homeland, will you be safely out of harm's way in gold?

R.
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(11/15/2004; 11:53:03 MDT - Msg ID: 126403)
... In Order to Form a More Perfect Union... (between You and Your Savings)
http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html

Arm yourself with knowledge
TownCrier
(11/15/2004; 12:04:41 MDT - Msg ID: 126404)
Price charts
http://www.usagold.com/gold-price.htmlThe daily chart looks like a good buying opportunity because the weekly chart, the monthly chart, the one-year chart, the five-year chart, and the 20-yr chart all show the hallmarks of a strong trend continuing higher.

Judge for yourself. See url.

R.
Topaz
(11/15/2004; 12:22:20 MDT - Msg ID: 126405)
Randy.
The intriguing thing with todays action TC is Euro PoG AND $ PoG BOTH plunged significantly and in unison.
This IS unusual!...and MAY indicate potential across the board PoG spikes in the near term.
TownCrier
(11/15/2004; 12:53:43 MDT - Msg ID: 126406)
One of the faces of inflation and the money game
http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh96629_2004-11-15_17-23-26_n15248047_newsmlHEADLINE: Mexico launches 1,000-peso bill, consumers skeptical

MEXICO CITY, Nov 15 (Reuters) - Mexico introduced a 1,000-peso ($88) bill on Monday, replacing 500 pesos as the largest note...

...introduced over the next couple of years as smaller notes are removed from circulation.

The central bank says studies it has done show the new bills are increasingly needed....

"For example there are (car) gas tanks now that you can't fill with 500 pesos," central bank director Manuel Galan told reporters.

A massive off-the-books economy in Mexico, where most people do not use credit cards and the majority of families stash their savings at home, likely accounts for part of the demand for the new note, the bank says.

But many will rarely use the new note.

...Even though Mexico is largely a cash economy, it is often difficult to find change in stores and restaurants for even a 200 peso bill. Breaking a thousand in many shops is bound to be hard.

"I keep 500 pesos at most in the cash register as a matter of security," said convenience store manager Hugo Lugo. "Why don't I have change? Because this is a store, not a bank."

The central bank's director Galan cautioned the new bill is not a response to inflation.

...In 1993 after years of lofty inflation the central bank issued "new" pesos, removing three zeros from each bill, so that the 100,000 peso note of the time was replaced by the 100 peso bill.

-----(from url)----

Curious is not so much the introduction of a larger note, but rather the concurrent withdrawal of the 500s.

As customers and stores shall now find it harder to make and break change for purchases especially in the $44 to $88 range (500p to 1,000p), this may be a deviously subtle ploy to serve to drive a larger number of Mexico's "off-the-books" population to finally seek as necessary the convenience of participation in modern banking through checking accounts and electronic payments, debit/credit cards.

From an official angle, this would be desirable as it would inject massive amounts of currently idle currency into deposits within the banking system, thus making balance sheets more cash-rich to goose the financial sector of the nation's economy.

From the citizen's angle, if they can avoid being fleeced day in and day out by their new exposure to potential banking fees, the added monetary conveniences would be one reward, in addition to possibilities of building a personal line of credit over time. The downside remains the same as in many countries, including this one. If citizens may be drawn into the banking system so completely, that they no longer maintain any assets "off-the-table" and thus safely outside of the system as a form of secure savings. In the event of a banking collapse or currency crisis, they are at greater risk of losing everything.

The key is to strike the right balance. Banking for economic convenience, gold for savings security.

R.
Gandalf the White
(11/15/2004; 13:20:14 MDT - Msg ID: 126407)
TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAA --- WE have WINNERS ! <;-)

Gold COMEX Contract Dec '04
Open $439.0 HIGH $440.6 low $436.3
SETTLEMENT $437.3
===
The following entries were at one time today, ATOP the HILL
---

$$$$ $440.0 $$$$ shawnis (11/8/04; 20:28:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 126175)

$$$$ $439.8 $$$$ Golden Era (11/10/04; 05:29:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 126239)

$$$$ $439.6 $$$$ Rustee (11/5/04; 09:02:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 126086)

$$$$ $439.4 $$$$ goldquest (11/10/04; 19:38:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 126280)

$$$$ $439.2 $$$$ Goldendome (11/9/04; 21:38:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 126230)

$$$$ $438.9 $$$$ Liberty Head (11/5/04; 21:37:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 126116)
$$$$ $438.8 $$$$ Rocky (11/9/04; 17:52:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 126218)

$$$$ $438.5 $$$$ White Hills (11/10/04; 11:52:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 126260)

$$$$ $438.2 $$$$ glockmaster19 (11/9/04; 16:05:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 126213)

$$$$ $437.7 $$$$ Canuck Gold (11/9/04; 22:40:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 126234)

$$$$ $437.5 $$$$ Felix the Cat (11/9/04; 19:53:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 126222)

$$$$ $437.0 $$$$ innerline (11/10/04; 11:35:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 126259)

$$$$ $436.8 $$$$ goldenpeace (11/10/04; 16:18:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 126270)

$$$$ $436.5 $$$$ pilgrims_gold (11/10/04; 06:12:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 126241)
===================================================

TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

AND, the WINNER of the GOLD Queen Victoria Sovereign is:
(from Downtown HK ---)
Sir Felix the Cat !!!!!

$$$$ $437.5 $$$$ Felix the Cat (11/9/04; 19:53:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 126222)

While the following are WINNERS of the One ounce SILVER Canadian Maple Leaf ---
---
SIR Canuck Gold and Sir Innerline !!!

$$$$ $437.7 $$$$ Canuck Gold (11/9/04; 22:40:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 126234)
and
$$$$ $437.0 $$$$ innerline (11/10/04; 11:35:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 126259)
====
CONGRATULATIONS all you WINNERS !
Please email Lady Marie with your 1) Forum HANDLE; 2) REAL NAME and MAILING ADDRESS so that she can post the prizes.
SHE can be reached at:
marie@usagold.com
<;-)
USAGOLD Daily Market Report
(11/15/2004; 14:18:10 MDT - Msg ID: 126408)
Page Update!
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Daily Gold Market Report has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.

Monday excerpts

Gold futures slipped from a 16-year high Monday following a gain of $4 an ounce last week and comments from Treasury Secretary John Snow supporting the U.S. dollar. In a speech in Ireland, Snow said a "strong dollar" is in the U.S. interest.

Snow is traveling in Europe this week to meet with finance ministers before G-20 ministers and central bank chiefs meet Friday.

The comments "basically stopped the free fall in the dollar and therefore led gold traders to take some profits," said Phil Flynn, a senior analyst at Alaron Trading in Chicago.

Against this backdrop, Comex December gold closed at $437.30, down $1. "Buying gold has been a decent hedge against dollar losses.

...However, with the U.S. dollar still widely expected to undergo further weakness over the medium term, a sustained selling spree in gold is deemed unlikely any time soon.

Indeed, with physical offtake in the Indian subcontinent reported sturdy and the holiday season approaching in the U.S. and Europe, any bouts of gold price weakness are expected to be broadly viewed as bargain-hunting opportunities, dealers said.

Some large traders are spreading or hedging their bets against another round of dollar declines and are buying gold," said John Person, president of National Futures Advisory Service.

Peter Grandich, editor of The Grandich Letter, an investment advisory publication, believes that strength in the U.S. stock market has "kept gold's incredible rise off the front pages."

"While the post-election honeymoon bear market rally can last a little while longer, the inevitable resumption of reality after the holidays should only help bolster an already strong case for gold at $500-plus," he said.

Looking ahead, a gold-bullion-backed exchange-traded fund, expected to launch on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol GLD as soon as this week, could mean higher prices for gold.

"The launching of a gold ETF in the U.S. will free millions of investors from the shackles of poor returns from paper assets," said Ned Schmidt, editor of the Value View Gold Report.

"The gold super cycle will now dominate as investors turn their money to gold away from losing money in paper stocks," he said.

-----(see url for access to full news, 24-hr international newswire, gold price charts)----
Federal_Reserves
(11/15/2004; 14:28:52 MDT - Msg ID: 126409)
Social Security - Receipts/Payments/Surplus over the years.
http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/STATS/table4a3.htmlIs Social Security Broke?

Hardly, over 1.5trillion in assets, as of 2003 running a surplus. Surplus meaning excess of payments over receipts. Its been nearly 25 years since this welfare program ran a deficit, way back in the early 80's. Since 1957, receipts have grown every single year. In 2003 the surplus was 152 billion!

Wall Street wants a piece of the action, and is running a scam game, telling everyone that the fund will run out of money and workers able to pay into the plan to keep it solvent. But, the truth is social security isn't a funded pension plan. Their really isn't any surplus per se. Workers with jobs, pay the benefits to those who are old aged and don't have jobs. It's pay as you go.

IMHO there is plenty of time to make appropriate adjustments to the payments and receipts to continue this welfare program. For example, why are benefits paid to millionares? This is a welfare program meant to support old aged folks who worked hard, but couldn't save due to low income during their lifetimes. Imagine the absurbdity of Wall Street raiding a welfare plan to its own benefit! Outrageous, even insane.
Topaz
(11/15/2004; 15:05:03 MDT - Msg ID: 126410)
there you go Rich...CoT for 11/9.
http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmxsf.htmTodays action indicates an increasing groundswell of PoG support in the futures as the downdraft failed to pick up Long stops ... or they were absorbed by "deep pockets".
OI continues to build and the impression one gets is that long-standing alliances are being jeopardized a-la the Bond pits earlier this month ... tread warily Rich!
Boilermaker
(11/15/2004; 15:19:11 MDT - Msg ID: 126411)
GATA's Chris Powell on Bill Murphy
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/2522If you want a chuckle check out Chris Powell's remarks from the gold conference in New Orleans last week.

snip;
""If Murphy isn't complaining about the gold price, he's complaining
about the failure of the big mining companies to help GATA as
some of the little ones have. Why, why, why won't they do
anything to help us fight the government, he asks?

So I go over it with him again.

The government, I explain, has about 15,000 nuclear weapons, a
large number of infantry and assault divisions and attack aircraft,
special agents who are licensed to kill, the power to print
infinite amounts of legal tender, control of the public lands
on which the mining companies hold leases, and enough
environmental regulations to turn Nevada into a national park.
And here's Murphy shaking his fist at them and screaming, "Come
out, you #@&%+@, and show yourselves!"

That really was my contribution to this organization: Telling
Murphy, "Let's you and them fight." He took me up on it and
the rest is history."

I love it. Mad Dog Murphy teamed with Coach Chris. A great combo fighting the fight for good over evil.
Great Albino Bat
(11/15/2004; 15:47:36 MDT - Msg ID: 126412)
The newest scam: the ETF

Another brilliant ploy to keep gold OUT of the hands of the hoi polloi, and insert a paper between the Joe Sixpack and gold.

If stocks in gold-mining companies can be shorted and shorted and shorted, so can the paper shares in the ETF.

The ETF picks up where Comex stops. The ETF is a product of the WGC, itself the spawn of Rothschild. Can you expect any good to come of that?

We know the Cabal shorts gold with abandon, reckless about losses. After all, what is at stake is the Great Pseudo-Gold Mine that is the Dollar as the world's money. Losing a few billion on shorting gold is peanuts, compared to the advantages of keeping the Dollar up and running. Problem is, physical gold can be hard to find for the shorts to deliver even small quantities. Where to find it?

Have the public buy the ETF shares high, and then short the dickens out of the shares. Same effect as shorting physical.
Very, very few will want to cash in their shares in the ETF, for physical delivery. Too complicated, too many obstacles. A lot of people will be burnt and will swear off gold.

Well, even the ETF shall pass, in time. The last great struggle of the powers of evil over humanity, is to wean humanity of the desire for gold. When that happens, we are no longer humans, we have become cattle. It shall not be!

If humans have become as cattle, What motive can the rulers have to be benevolent? None. Read: "The Abolition of Man", by C.S. Lewis, for further enlightenment.

The GAB
Great Albino Bat
(11/15/2004; 15:51:16 MDT - Msg ID: 126413)
The gold avance has stalled ??

If so, get ready for a smash on gold of $25 bucks, and get ready to buy CHEAP.

That's what I will do, if it happens.

The GAB
R Powell
(11/15/2004; 16:01:57 MDT - Msg ID: 126414)
Topaz
Thanks for setting me straight on the COT report. I checked it yesterday (Sunday) thinking that I would get the latest report since the reports have always (for years!)been posted on Friday night. These Friday night reports include the numbers through Tuesday of the week...three day delay. I didn't notice that what I was viewing was ten days old!! (actually 12).

Anyway, thanks for catching that. I wonder if the delay was just for last week or if the numbers will now only be available after Sunday...five day delay??

But, the numbers your link leds to show that once again the big trend following specs are leading the buying charge, although the numbers indicate that they can buy a lot more before they reverse the (net) shorts initiated during the previous two weeks.

The long term POG/POS outlook will still be determined by the fundamentals which, imho, lead upward until the monetary inflation drops to some sensible degree of economic expansion. With the deficits, overspending consumers, wars, misleading or altered economic indicators, etc., I don't foresee any such sensible level for years to come. Hey, one of these years maybe we'll get there and then the price of metals will still rise due to the old laws of supply and demand.

Then there are always those black swan events...like the Russian bond default (LTCM) or today's move in the price of coffee! I'm not sure yet but have heard rumors of an earthquake in Columbia. One unhedged future's contract of coffee....on the short side...lost over $4,000 today. Can you say margin call? No, I'm long <;) but....such events do happen every now and again. They are totally unpredictable...unknowables. Are Gold and silver due for such an event? Maybe not so unpredictable but whatever triggers the event (whether an important piece of the puzzle or not) MAY be an unpredictable event...butterfly effect...dominos if you prefer? Perhaps just one obscure, nondescript individual, of no consequence to anyone but himself, may refuse, in some dark alley in some far away city, payment for services when offered Yankee dollars. Maybe he'll ask for silver coins instead! Ya, I know, gold coins if it was a big service he rendered, but remember, he is a bear of little consequence...he works for silver, not gold.

Congrats to today's winners..!!!!!!
rich
TownCrier
(11/15/2004; 16:10:32 MDT - Msg ID: 126415)
On globe-trotting, central banking and mining
http://money.iwon.com/jsp/nw/nwdt_rt_top.jsp?cat=TOPBIZ&src=704&feed=dji§ion=news≠ws_id=dji-00054620041115&date=20041115&alias=/alias/money/cm/nwBRUSSELS (Dow Jones)--South African President Thabo Mbeki Monday called for a quick resolution to an attempted takeover of South African gold mining company Gold Fields Ltd. by the smaller gold mining company, Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd., but added he would not intervene.

Gold Fields is resisting a $7 billion all-share takeover by Harmony. The deal has become riddled with litigious rhetoric, which observers say threatens to undermine confidence in the two companies.

...Mbeki was opening a three-day visit to Belgium, France and Holland. Most of his itinerary is political. He is to brief European officials on his recent visit to strife-torn Ivory Coast and on efforts to bring a lasting peace to Congo, Rwanda and Burundi.

But economics is also on the agenda. Mbeki is to go Monday night to Antwerp to address a gala dinner of diamond dealers. The 25-nation European Union is South Africa's largest commercial partner, with total trade reaching $28 billion last year.

...after an afternoon meeting with European Union Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso, Mbeki denied that continued uncertainty over proposals to charge mining companies royalties was undermining the industry or scaring away foreign investors.

South Africa's mining department wants to charge several percent in royalties on the revenues of mining companies. Businesses have balked at this. They say any royalties should be charged on profits, not revenues.

Mbeki said the wrangle has delayed the passing of a bill, as the government consults mining businesses.

----(from article at url)----

A highly tempting target, gold in the ground (as other land-based natural resources) is like a sitting duck for officials hunting for easy pickings to feed social agendas and programs. Highly mobile gold-in-hand, however, is several degrees less prone to this sort of easy confiscatory taxation.

Strike the right balance, and choose your diversification in the right form. Call USAGOLD-Centennial for friendly professional and knowledgeable guidance. They've been helping investors acheive the right balance for over 30 years.

R.
Great Albino Bat
(11/15/2004; 16:13:14 MDT - Msg ID: 126416)
Of KINGS and of GOLD...

Kings and gold, go together.

It all started back in the Renaissance, with the supposed struggle for Free Enquiry. Mankind was led into an infatuation with Science, with the power of human reason to order things far better than they were up to then ordered, where mankind was supposedly chained down by oudated laws and customs, that prevented Human Reason from improving the lot of mankind.

Out with Kings! Out with Despotism! Free Enquiry, Science and Human Reason enthroned in the will of the "free" people expressing their desires, long kept in subservience were going to liberate mankind and create a better world.

Kings were out! "Democracy" was and is, IN.

The power of the Purse, ever held by Kings, was wrested from them. It began with the foundation of what was to become the first Central Bank, The Bank of England, founded in 1694 to create funds for the war against France, which harbored the deposed King of England, James II.

Then, two hundred years later, the war turned against GOLD, the metal forever associated with Kings.

Both have been demonized.

Today, we labor under an evil tyranny far worse than that ever exercised by the worst of kings.

And the powers of evil continue to attempt rout out gold, the metal of kings.

Are we better off? A rhetorical question. You well know the answer. Will gold follow the fate of kings? God forbid! Your part in this struggle, is to side with gold, and you can do this, by buying it.

The GAB
TownCrier
(11/15/2004; 16:17:42 MDT - Msg ID: 126417)
Rich, "I wonder if the delay was just for last week or..."

Thanks to thinking out loud, I can let you know you have no need to wonder any longer. It was a one-off event.

The timing wrinkle was caused by a holiday, Veterans Day being last Thursday.

R.
Gandalf the White
(11/15/2004; 17:42:18 MDT - Msg ID: 126418)
WOWERS -- SPIKE just got loose ! <;-)
http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/en/detail/_pages/charts/main.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1&sTimeframe=iD&useSettings=0&showSettings=&sid=&hiddenTimeFrame=&sOrdType=price&sScale=linear&sMarket=GLD.FX1&iType=1&sAv1=na&sAvfree1=&sAv2=200&sAv2free2=&sAv2count=1&iInd0=na&sBench1=na&sBenchcount=1&sBench2=&sBench2count=1&showBenchmarkSearch=&iInd1=2&iInd2=na&iIndcount=1&sSettings=naA $2. leap to start his day !
<;-)
White Rose
(11/15/2004; 18:24:52 MDT - Msg ID: 126419)
Remember my $435 Au $/oz and 1.29 $/Euro rule?
Right now, the Euro is $1.29233, applying my rule, that predicts a gold price of $435.79, which is only 30 cents off.

Forget the price of gold for a few days. Keep your eye on the Euro exchange rate. When gold soars against the dollar and the Euro, you can tell me to take a hike (on the golden path, of course!)

I love XE.com, since it updates the exchange rates so frequently. For some reason they do not list gold as a currency, which I thought it was.
goldquest
(11/15/2004; 20:06:05 MDT - Msg ID: 126420)
Fannie Mae Misses Deadline to File Report
November 15, 2004 8:36 pm et
By Marcy Gordon

WASHINGTON (AP)-Mortgage giant Fannie Mae missed a regulatory deadline Monday for filing its third-quarter financial results after its independant auditor KPMG refused to sign off on the report.

goldquest: I have said in the past that the potential scandals from Fannie and Freddie will make the Enron fiasco look like nothing more than a shoplifting caper!
Fannie, Fannie, Fannie, have ye takin' leave of yer "cents"es, dear lass?
Camel
(11/15/2004; 21:33:04 MDT - Msg ID: 126421)
Dollar
http://www.vheadline.com/readnews.asp?id=23494Makes a couple of good points
Chris Powell
(11/15/2004; 22:01:20 MDT - Msg ID: 126422)
Dow Jones Newswires interviews Mike Kosares of CPM/USAGold ...
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/2525... about the direction of the gold market.


To subscribe to GATA's dispatches, send an e-mail to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com
Toolie
(11/15/2004; 22:06:48 MDT - Msg ID: 126423)
Fraudulent gold sales
http://www.mlive.com/news/muchronicle/index.ssf?/base/news-5/1099739839249880.xmlSnip: One, a 57-year-old Fruitport Township man, pleaded guilty in federal court Thursday to mail fraud for selling gold coins over an Internet auction site in 1999 as a hedge against Y2K collapse -- then not delivering all the gold after being paid for it�..

In a plea deal, Dennis Michael Siedlecki of 3835 Ellen pleaded guilty in U.S. District Court's Western District of Michigan in Grand Rapids to one count of mail fraud. In exchange for his plea, the U.S. Attorney's office agreed to drop 20 other counts of mail or wire fraud against Siedlecki or his wife, Christine Erma Siedlecki, at the time of Dennis Siedlecki's sentencing�..

Judge Robert Holmes Bell set sentencing for 8:30 a.m. Feb. 4. The maximum possible sentence for mail fraud is five years in federal prison. �.

According to the indictment, the Siedleckis from about May to September 1999 ran an eBay auction business called "Gold for Y2K." The company was created "to sell gold coins to persons who feared economic fluctuations would occur in the year 2000 and thought that gold would be more stable than other investments," the indictment stated. The coins were sold to the highest bidder in a series of eBay auctions.
One buyer from McAllen, Texas, identified in the indictment only as J.S., paid about $40,000 in a series of transactions, but received only about $20,000 worth of one-ounce American Gold Eagle coins, Murray said. After "J.S." complained, he was sent a series of e-mails making various excuses and pledging eventual full repayment, but no refund was ever sent, federal officials said. (end snip)

After five years of investigation and trial finally a guilty plea in exchange for a maximum five-year sentence. The "buyers" are left with little, other than an education. What could be worse than looking for your gold in a courtroom, when it on the moon. Stick with steady accumulation, so there is no need to rush into a buy, and certainly choose a reputable dealer such as CPM.
2023
(11/15/2004; 22:35:58 MDT - Msg ID: 126424)
Good evening all
Hello USAGold members. I am new to posting to USAGold but have been lurking for awhile. Been following the metals markets since 1999. Own many shares and physical.
Just started reading the Gold Trail this weekend - incredibly fascinating commentary. Would love to hear comments / opinions on the Gold Trail from others who have read all of it. Just curious if FOA or Another still post here?
Gandalf the White
(11/15/2004; 22:43:05 MDT - Msg ID: 126425)
WELCOME Sir 2023 !!
The "Trail" is the most interesting GOLD discussion of this ERA ! Sorry, but BOTH ANOTHER and FOA have not yet returned as they said that they would (when the time is right). HOWEVER, they provided many of us GOLDHEARTS with their view of the future. AND, in my opinion, the discussions of the "Trail" have and are becoming FACT !
Stay and POST at the Forum and you will hear from other wise GOLDHEARTS !
<;-)
Canuck Gold
(11/15/2004; 22:56:07 MDT - Msg ID: 126426)
December gold contest
I'd like to thank USAGOLD for their contribution to the latest competition and to congratulate Felix the Cat and innerline on their success. I will very gratefully remove another ounce of silver from circulation.

With the December open interests in gold and silver at record levels, we're in for a hairy few days ahead. You just know that certain institutions will be pulling out all the stops to hit gold and silver as hard as they can over the next week or so, so the more of us who hang in there and hold the line, the better. Now if a few brave souls hang tough and stand for delivery, it could get very interesting around here.

CG ;)
Felix the Cat
(11/15/2004; 22:56:23 MDT - Msg ID: 126427)
I won???
As I have said I won't miss the chance to win the Gold. LOL, I now must be drunk again, drank too much at yesterday. @.@!
melda laure
(11/15/2004; 23:03:21 MDT - Msg ID: 126428)
Camel SSA mssg #126360
Sorry for the delay. I agree with everything you said. Social Security does run a surplus (which Congress spends on other stuff EVERY YEAR).

"It is also true that due to demographic changes, at some point in the future there will no longer be an annual surplus but an annual deficit and this deficit will have to be reconciled in some way."

I agree with this also. What I find amusing (and increasingly disgusting) is that I often will hear politicians and the think tank boys speaking as though the "trust fund" represents spendable reserves that can be called upon come the day when the annual surplus turns negative. That was the substance of my dispute with the vice president's comments.

The "trust fund" can not be spent. It has been spent already- this is exactly what you have said yourself. And as long as total deficits exceed this annual surplus it is pointless to speak of "lock boxes." The government would be saving a dollar and owing $1.25 and that is the same as being bankrupt. Nor (given the trade situation) can they buy euros.

In Clink's message of #126338 he paraphrases Cheney as saing "Having said all of that, where we are with respect to Social Security is that the trust fund is in good shape for those that are currently retired, drawing benefits"

Well, this is slightly misleading, isn't it (and in the VP's defense, he isn't the only one saing this) Technically, the fund is broke. However, as it still has positive cash flow in excess of current expenses (the annual surplus you spoke of) the VP is at least correct.

To further quote post #126338: "They're worried that by the time they reach retirement age 30 or 40 years from now, there won't be anything there in the system."

Here is where I get disturbed. Why worry about the future? There's nothing in "there" right now! THAT is what I meant by saing that it is almost impossible to make things worse by "privatization" schemes.

And to really beat a dead horse: "We know when they're going to reach that age. We know how much money is flowing into the system, and there will be a problem 30 or 40 years down the road that we need to address."

Here again is another subtle misunderstanding. Congress does not have 30 or 40 years. It may be as few as 3 to 4 years (heck they're way over-budget now) Invariably, projections of 25 years+ impicitly assume that the "trust fund" can be drawn down before crisis ensues. But as I have already bored you with a fact you already know we will leave it.

The true nature of the "trust fund" (in short: it is a "trust liability") has been and continues to be the single most misleading and befuddling LIE about SSA that is fed to us. Just as Mr Cheney can not bring himself to say that the fund is imaginary, so too Mr Kerry can not say that the REAL reason that privatization is impossible is that congress is already counting on the surplus to backstop their huge "budget" hole.

Why else send you annual statements of what you've paid into the system- except to convince you of the reality of a phantasm? Save to bewitch us with a pleasing lie of a nice future paycheck?

Truly it is one more glaring example of how we live in ignorance of the nature of money and credit. The time is near. Given the realities, there is no easy solution (taxes) as there was 20 years ago. Serious loss of purchasing power is a certainty. As congress can not pay back the fund so too, the ETF's can not cough up the gold. There are many bags to fill with empty zeros. Your annual SSA statement is one bag, the non-returnable "CB gold reserves that are really loans" is another.

To paraphrase an old elvish custom:(which has gotten around to china and lately in these last centuries the city of kings down south)

She is a grand pinata. Surely filled with many good treats- and we all have bags and like greedy orc imps, eagerly waiting for the mad scramble for "loot". However, at the back table, you may instead elect to receive a small bag of "real" candy (set out for those who choose to leave the party early- and for a few of the loosers who might come up empty handed in the mad scramble to come- STRICTLY FIRST COME FIRST SERVED!)

The pinata, a star fallen from heaven, dispensing the wealth of the valar, yet it teaches a hard lesson, which many an elf lad learnt in ages past.

Life is unfair.
The only certain candy is at the back of the room.
Sharing is noble.
The mad scramble is too much like orc mischief.

Now if you will excuse me I have to go count my "early" loot.

regards Sir Camel! Cuio nin mellon.


Ned
(11/16/2004; 04:44:16 MDT - Msg ID: 126429)
GAB, all
Thanks for the note regarding the WGC's ETF.

With all the 'to do' about the WGC in the past many years is it not therefore appropriate to be suspicious about this new gold investment vehicle?

I had asked the other day about Chris Thompson's whereabouts. As the anti-hedging king of days gone by, we were anxious to have him lead the Council. Does anyone know how he is doing, or what he is doing? Has he turned over to the dark side?

TIA
Cytek
(11/16/2004; 07:32:54 MDT - Msg ID: 126430)
Looks like the PPI is showing it's real colors
Producer Prices: Biggest Gain Since 1990
Tue Nov 16, 2004 09:15 AM ET

Top News

By Tim Ahmann
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. producer prices shot up 1.7 percent last month, the biggest gain in nearly 15 years and well above expectations, as energy costs skyrocketed and food prices surged, a government report showed on Tuesday.

Even outside of food and energy, producer prices climbed a relatively swift 0.3 percent in October, the Labor Department said, well ahead of the 0.1 percent gain Wall Street had expected.

The increase in the overall Producer Price Index, a gauge of prices received by farms, factories and refineries, was the largest since January 1990 and easily outstripped expectations for a 0.5 percent gain.

U.S. bond prices fell and stock futures dipped, pointing to a weak market open, as investors turned nervous on inflation. The dollar was little changed.
Copperfield
(11/16/2004; 08:25:57 MDT - Msg ID: 126431)
THE U.S. GOVERNMENT�S BUBBLE BLOWING MACHINE
http://www.bits.de/public/gast/bell.htmDoes anyone know about the following findings of Prof. Bell?

snip 1:

Lockheed Martin and other federal contractors literally operate under a law unto themselves, known as U.S. Government Cost Accounting Standards.

Lockheed Martin itself described how this law, with its money back guarantee on bad pension fund investments, works. The disclosure is in its December 31, 2002 annual report: "The total funding requirement for our pension plans under U.S. Government Cost Accounting Standards (CAS) in 2002 was $87 million. CAS is a major factor in determining our funding requirements and governs the extent to which our pension costs are allocable to and recoverable under contracts with the U.S. Government. For 2003, we expect our funding requirements under CAS to increase substantially. This amount is recovered over time through the pricing of our products and services on U.S. Government contracts, and therefore is recognized in our net sales."

The last sentence is particularly interesting. It means if Lockheed Martin loses pension fund money on the stock market, the company ultimately increases the size of its revenue by adding the losses onto its prices to the federal government. Impressionable stock buyers could get the idea that the company is doing something right, rather than realizing that the company's pension fund had simply done something very wrong in the stock market.

end snip

snip 2:

On 29 July 2003, Le Monde published an article on foreign ownership of French companies traded on the Paris exchange. This had grown from 10% in 1985 to 43.7% in 2003. But specifically who were the foreign owners? That was generally impossible to determine. The exchange clearing houses such as Euroclear in Paris, which according to the article were the best sources for who owned what, would only give information on the location of the bank in which the title to the stocks was recorded. The head of investor relations at a major European military contractor, EADS, said, "I can't know precisely who are our American stockholders, because many of them have entrusted their stock to European depositary banks."

U.S. government insured investments in foreign stock would help explain why foreign stock markets so often change direction and follow the U.S. markets after the opening of the U.S. markets each day. The same pension funds may be doing the buying at the same time on both sides of the Atlantic.

end snip
Zhisheng
(11/16/2004; 08:28:39 MDT - Msg ID: 126432)
Minor Inconsistency
This morning the gold market has not been following its inverse relationship with the dollar market, at least on the short time scale. There are stubborn opposing forces at work here.

If one gives way, we may run the buy stops over $440. If the other, we may have the long predicted correction.

A week until December options mature. The big question (with plenty of betting on both sides) is whether this will be an exception to the usual temporary slide back to keep as many calls as possible from maturing in the money.
seeker
(11/16/2004; 08:53:03 MDT - Msg ID: 126433)
2023 ...............FOA/ANOTHER
2023---I also wonder about FOA and ANOTHER.

One of the main reasons that I got into physical gold accumulation was because of the message of these two gentlemen, and the guidance of GOD. I was intrigued by their message, so I researched and dug into what was real and what was not in the land of wealth preservation (I think this was their intent....to get people to investigate and find out for themselves what is really going on, not what the mainstream reporting says is real). Well the more I dug into it, the more I believed what they were saying. So much so that I invested 100% of my wealth into gold (physical). I bought in at an average of $310/oz .... needless to say it was the wisest investment that I've ever made.

I am still very hopefull that Another and his Friend will again come and shead some light on these current events for us, as gold agains hits new highs.


Gandalf the White
(11/16/2004; 10:51:14 MDT - Msg ID: 126434)
Let us sing !!! --- "What a Difference a DAY MAKES" !!!!!
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=$GOLD,PETBDANRBO[PA][D][F1!3!!!2!20]⪯f=GThings are now looking GOLDEN !
The Gold P&F Chart from yesterday (see LINK) did give us ANOTHER little Green "X" at the $440. level and confirmed the BREAKOUT !
The Wiz is now recalibrating his Crystal Ball to get the POG projections adjusted. Must have been the changeover from Daylight Savings Time.
<;-)
Topaz
(11/16/2004; 12:41:28 MDT - Msg ID: 126435)
@Rich.
http://www.crbtrader.com/data/default.asp?page=chart&sym=QCY0Even with the Coffee pullback, Softs are rippin rich! (see link)
The Gold equivalent of Coffee tho mate would find us at Starbucks sipping our Grande Latte's, the cups would of course contain only little bits of paper with "coffee bean" written on them ... but we would be content in the knowledge that "somewhere" in the World "someone" paid 4 bucks for a "real" coffee! Crazy World eh?
TownCrier
(11/16/2004; 13:16:26 MDT - Msg ID: 126436)
Market snapshot
Current view of the INO live market chart atop this page:

ReutersCRB . . -1.65

US Dollar . . . . -0.24

Bonds . . . . . . . -3/32

Gold . . . . . . . . +3.4

S&P 500 . . . . -7.58

Nasdaq . . . . -15.21

Gold has so far to run to achieve equilibrium on a physical market basis that it shouldn't be surprising to see many future days in which gold is the only real gainer.

R.
Topaz
(11/16/2004; 13:20:05 MDT - Msg ID: 126437)
D-uh! Rich.
Now I've caught the date disease ... the Softs spike WAS the coffee move yesterday as the CRB Softs Index Chart is for 11/15 NOT today!
TownCrier
(11/16/2004; 13:37:43 MDT - Msg ID: 126438)
Dust is flyin' off the bull
http://www.usagold.com/gold-price.htmlDoes anybody see anything here that does not look like the hoof-marks of a rampaging bull and a lifeless bear carcass at January 2001?

Not seeing current charts? Click browser refresh button to reload graphics as necessary, or click and hold mouse key over an outdated chart, and then select the 'reload image' option from the popup menu.

R.
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(11/16/2004; 13:41:43 MDT - Msg ID: 126439)
A risk-free request, helping you enter the gold market with grace and confidence.
http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html

Get a head start on the gold market!
USAGOLD Daily Market Report
(11/16/2004; 14:41:11 MDT - Msg ID: 126440)
Page Update!
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Daily Gold Market Report has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.

Tuesday market excerpts

Comex gold futures secured their highest close in the contract's history Tuesday after continued U.S. dollar weakness and signs of rising U.S. inflation sustained fund interest in bullion.

The most active December contract settled $3.20 higher at $440.50. Spot gold ended the New York session at $440.15 - $1 shy of the fresh 16-year highs scored earlier of $441.15.

U.S. wholesale prices rose at the fastest pace in nearly 15 years in October as prices of energy and food surged. The producer price index for finished goods rose 1.7%, the biggest increase since January 1990, the Labor Department said Tuesday.

The numbers came in above Wall Street expectations and helped heighten gold's allure as an inflation hedge. At the same time, the U.S. dollar remained under pressure relative to the euro and other rivals despite news that foreign inflows of capital into the U.S. remained high in September to cover the trade gap for that month.

The dollar's negative bent despite the capital inflow news sustained the bullish sentiment in dollar alternatives such as gold through the morning. "The dollar seems to be going lower no matter what, and that's obviously helping gold," said a dealer with a large U.S. investment bank.

Gold was already in a bullish mood of late anyway as the market anticipates the potentially imminent launch of two new gold-linked investment vehicles which could unveil new sources of U.S. demand for gold. As a result, once the news emerged that inflation was indeed seeping into the U.S. economy at greater speed than previously acknowledged, gold prices were quick to turn higher.

...A further devaluation of the greenback by 20-30 percent would make bullion more attractive as an alternative store of value and could propel the yellow metal over $600 a troy ounce, said Michael Kosares, founder and president of gold firm USAGOLD-Centennial Precious Metals Inc.

Kosares said crumbling confidence in the U.S. currency due to America's enormous budget and current-account deficits has left investors scampering for safe havens such as gold.

..."There has been increased buying by our regular customers, but also by a lot of first-time investors," said Kosares.

"The euro bottomed against the dollar at 82 cents (October 2000) and has since peaked at around $1.30, an appreciation of 58 percent. In a similar manner, gold has risen 72 percent since its bottom," said Kosares. Gold hit a low of around $255 in April of 2001, but has been trading just under $440 in recent sessions.

The Wall Street Journal and Japan's Nikkei Financial Daily in recent days have both reported what currency traders have long suspected -- that while the administration under President George W. Bush continues to say it favors a "strong dollar," it is happy to let the greenback fall. Barring increased U.S. saving or decreased consumption, a weaker dollar is one of the few remedies for the country's current-account gap.

The Nikkei report, in line with many economists' estimates, concluded the dollar would need to fall by 20-30 percent to halve the ratio of the U.S. current account deficit to the gross domestic product -- now near 6 percent.

This is the same 20-30 percent devaluation Kosares said could kick gold over $600....

----(see url for access to full news, 24-hr international newswire, price charts)---
R Powell
(11/16/2004; 16:32:06 MDT - Msg ID: 126441)
TownCrier
In reference to my now answered question (126417), thanks !
R Powell
(11/16/2004; 16:39:00 MDT - Msg ID: 126442)
Michael
Congratulations on being deemed knowledgeable enough to be interviewed by the mainstream press! Not that we didn't know, of course. I hope the well earned and well deserved exposure helps your business.

When time allows, could you share some of your current thoughts and especially your current wonderings (questions) about the present state of affairs in the metals' markets?
Thanks
rich
TownCrier
(11/16/2004; 17:12:10 MDT - Msg ID: 126443)
Gold at all-time high in India, buyers undaunted
http://www.indianexpress.com/full_story.php?content_id=59018MUMBAI, NOVEMBER 16: Riding on a massive rise in international gold prices, the yellow metal prices rose on Tuesday to breach all previous highs and touched an all-time high of Rs 6,495 per 10 grams [standard gold (99.5 purity)] on the bullion market here on Tuesday. Pure gold was quoted at Rs 6,530.

The previous highest level for standard gold and pure gold were Rs 6,490 and Rs 6,525, respectively.

"Indians continue to buy gold irrespective of the prices," says Mumbai jeweller Bharat Mehta. "The ongoing wedding season and Diwali festival were the two main drivers of gold prices," he added. "We are not expecting any let up in demand."

India is the world's biggest gold consumer with over 800 tonnes of gold sold every year in the country.

-----(from url)----

While prices in India are at all-time highs, here in the U.S. prices still have room to DOUBLE before we get to the old highs in the $800's, a level not seen since 1980. We now have over 20 years of inflation and dollar-creation to catch up with. Unlike the situation with other countries, the dollar's use in international central banking reserves has been a past blessing, but now it becomes a very troubling currency overhang should they ever decide that a portfolio adjustment is warranted by the chronic U.S. budget and trade deficits.

R.
TownCrier
(11/16/2004; 18:05:07 MDT - Msg ID: 126444)
DowJones Newswires article featuring USAGOLD's Michael J. Kosares
http://www.usagold.com/amk/Kosares-in-News.htmlHEADLINE: U.S. Dollar Crisis Could Catapult Gold Over $600
By Jim Hawe
Dow Jones Newswires Monday, November 15, 2004

(snip)
...So just how much gold should investors be stuffing into their portfolios? Kosares said the commonly cited 5 percent weighting may be too small in light of the current environment and suggests placing 10 percent of one's portfolio in gold.

"Gold isn't so much an investment as it is a type of savings or insurance against currency devaluation," he said. "I think if you look at an investment pyramid you would have savings at the bottom and I think gold should be a part of that savings."

-----(entire article is provide at URL above)----

Nice work, chief.

R.
Sundeck
(11/16/2004; 18:06:34 MDT - Msg ID: 126445)
Euro, dollar, yen, oil, gold and everything...
http://www.wtrg.com/daily/oilandgasspot.htmlIt will be interesting to see if jawboning by Trichet and the European finance ministers is sufficient to scare people away from the Euro (keep them in the US dollar) or whether many US currency holders are going to get off at this stop for better or for worse...

On the oil front, Europe seems to have pursuaded Iran to forgo its uranium enrichment program (a wise decision) and Iran is contentedly setting up contracts all over the world (except with the US). How high does oil have to go in US-dollars before Europe says "enough!", bites the bullet and insists on using Euros for oil purchases? (Now there is a ticklish one...) Oil price in US$ is falling (look at the link). Also look at the trend (with subcycles) and ask yourself whether anyone is going to be buying oil and oil-shares soon.

Meanwhile I notice that when the USBOT dollar index spikes down to near 83.6 there is a rapid upward response...looks like someone somewhere has set their buy-orders at that level and is not shying away, at least in the short term...

Gold is holding up well however...both it and the Ozzie dollar (for example) seem to be taking some of the outflow from the US dollar...probably those who are worried about BOJ intervening and spoiling a Yen play as well as those worried about Trichet doing something more than jawboning and spoiling an Euro play. (This probably explins gold's current strength as well.)

Not all of Europe is hurting...I notice German exports are doing remarkably well in the face of a rising currency. I recall reading somewhere that the Euro represents now about 22% of the worlds currency reserves.

Elsewhere, in China, the leader, Mr Hu, is on a ride around Latin America, building trade relationships there left, right and centre. Mr Hu said: "This will be the century of the Pacific and Latin America." (Funny...now where have I heard something like that before? Mmmm...)

On the home front, here in sleepy old Oz, Mr Ian Macfarlane, the governor of the Australian Reserve Bank, has been getting stuck into the local banks about relaxing their lending standards (all to maintain market share in the face of agressive non-bank lending). The attack is probably unprecedented by a RB governor. Now why would he do that? Well household debt is at record levels here in Oz and the housing sector has been largely responsible ... bubble territory perhaps, but easing. Also our (cyclical, not structural like in the US) current account deficit is running at 6% GDP on a strengthening Ozzie dollar...not good for our exporters. I suspect Mr Macfarlane's attack on the banks is to get them to do their bit so that when the reserve bank has to drop interest rates to weaken the currency (vis-a-vis the US-dollar basket-case) and help exporters, he is not going to have to hose down home-loans as well. No talk of selling Ozzie dollars yet, but it is at about this level earlier this year when the reserve bank started "replishing foreign currency reserves" - euphemism for "printing dollars".

I hear that the governor of the reserve bank of South Africa has said that he is not going to cap the rising SA Rand...yet.

Over in the USA, Mr Powell has called it a day...a remarkable man bows out...I wonder if he is having regrets in not offering himself as a presidential candidate four years ago?

FWIW

;-)

Sundeck

Sundeck
(11/16/2004; 18:39:03 MDT - Msg ID: 126446)
Typos and MK's book
...no, not typos in your book Sir MK, but in my previous message:

"replenishing" in particular...

Thanks for the copy of your book's second edition...a good read...pithy and up-to-date; and not too complex for upsidedown intellects from Oz...definitely a recommended buy (to all those who didn't get a free copy).

Many thanks for the book and especially for the "table round"...

:-)
TownCrier
(11/16/2004; 18:49:43 MDT - Msg ID: 126447)
Fed tightrope
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/print_story.asp?print=1&guid={6E3031FF-D5F8-42F9-967C-15F403AEAAAD}&siteid=mktwNov. 16, 2004, SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) --

... 1.7 percent climb in the producer price index last month -- the most since January 1990...

"Interest rates are still relatively inexpensive, which makes gold a favorite hedge against a rise in the U.S. dollar," said John Person, president of National Futures Advisory Service.

"The Fed raises rates to combat inflationary pressures, but they risk choking off the economy's growth momentum, so this makes buying gold even that much more attractive as many doubt they will be overly aggressive in their interest rate hiking campaign."

"Earnings last quarter for companies in the S&P 500 Index rose about 17 percent based on the share-weighted average of the 462 companies that released results by Nov. 12" -- that's the smallest increase since the second quarter of 2003, said Person.

"This shows that earnings are decelerating, and that shows the economy is definitely going to be struggling," he said.

Combined with the PPI data, it all "spells trouble ahead for the Fed who must try to balance inflation while not curtailing the economy's growth momentum," said Person.

"If the Fed sees inflation as a threat, they will aggressively raise rates-- that is bad for stocks and bonds, but supportive for gold," he explained. The situation would make gold more attractive "as a hedge against losses in paper assets..."

-----(from url)----

The Fed can't manage its way out of a failing dollar-reserve endgame. The currency will depreciate and interest rates will climb as bond prices slide, just like all the banana republic currencies you've ever read about in the history books and financial pages.

Be proactive. Choose gold.

R.
Black Blade
(11/16/2004; 18:53:20 MDT - Msg ID: 126448)
Good Article MK!!!
http://www.usagold.com/amk/Kosares-in-News.html
Kudos and nice to see in print. I fully agree. I saw John Hathaway (Toqueville Fund) with another "Gold Pro" discussing some of the same issues (though the segment meant to focus on the "gold ETF's"). Quite a change from the drivel of the disavowed and forgotten "Andy Smith the Gold Bear" who predicted that gold would fall to $50-$60/ounce as the Techs and Dot.Gones were "the rage". How times have changed.

- Black Blade
Black Blade
(11/16/2004; 19:09:26 MDT - Msg ID: 126449)
Dollar's Decline Is 2004's Defining Market Move: Mark Gilbert
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=email_us&refer=columnist_gilbert&sid=aA0a_kNaL70c
Snippet:

Nov. 16 (Bloomberg) -- It's time to dust off a remark John Connally made about the dollar when he was Richard Nixon's U.S. Treasury secretary. ``It's our currency, but it's your problem.''

Three decades later, the problem is back. The dollar's dive against the euro and the yen is turning out to be the defining market move of 2004. After years of ignoring U.S. deficits, the currency market is using the trade and current-account figures as a reason (excuse?) to whack the dollar to a record low against the euro and a seven-month low versus the yen.

The biggest worry for European and Japanese officials isn't just the extent of the dollar's slide. It's the conspiracy theory doing the rounds that says the U.S. would like nothing more than to see a sustained slide in its currency.

Yesterday, Treasury Secretary John Snow trotted out the standard party line that ``a strong dollar is in America's interest.'' Currency traders ignored him --


- Black Blade: As I have said many a time before. The Secretary and the Prez may "talk the talk, but not walk the walk". A weaker US dollar is in the nation's best interest given the severity of the "twin deficits". PM's are looking strong and coiled to spring, and today's inflation data was not encouraging.
TownCrier
(11/16/2004; 19:40:19 MDT - Msg ID: 126450)
Rand management philosophy sounding a lot like euro's
http://allafrica.com/stories/200411160467.htmlHEADLINE: Bank Not in Business of Weakening the Exchange Rate, Says Mboweni

Business Day (Johannesburg) November 16, 2004 -- SOUTH AFRICA Reserve Bank governor Tito Mboweni is holding firm to his view that the central bank should not try to weaken the rand this despite the local currency threatening to rally again.

Mboweni told French business executives in Johannesburg yesterday that the Bank was "not in the business of weakening the exchange rate", but that it favoured a "stable and competitive" rand.

The rand was also boosted by a surging gold price, which hit its best level in more than 16 years yesterday, breaking through the key level of $440/oz.

The rand has gained almost 90% against the dollar since hitting an all-time low of R13.85 in 2001.

...the rand's dramatic gains have hurt the export sector...

"With inflation targeting, we shouldn't be seen in any way as targeting any other variable but inflation," he said.

Mboweni said if the Bank tried to weaken the rand it was unclear how far it would drop.

"Then we are back to the complaints of 2001 and the governor being hauled in front of a commission of inquiry to explain the depreciation of the rand. No exporters came to the defence of the governor then," he said.

"In this situation (of low interest rates), people are better advised to liquidate debt, rather than increase expenditure," he said.

He said that with interest rates at historical lows, it made for a "good party out there", but this would have to end at some point.

"As we know, the party has to stop at some point," he said.

-----(see full article at url)----

A home run ball.

I wonder how many of the typically fractious anti-banking crowd find themselves consternated that they can herein relate more fundamentally with a central banker than with the group of politicians that they must ultimately call upon -- if and when -- to do away with these unusually savvy CBers. What then? And to think you thought inflation was bad now... in which case you ain't seen nothin' yet.

R.
MK
(11/16/2004; 19:51:20 MDT - Msg ID: 126451)
Barrick & Book
I want to thank all of you who went out of your way to say the nice things about the book. It was a labor of love and to see that others gain have gained from it is the greatest reward. As Black Blade suggests for too long what gold is really all about was lost in the rhetoric and the controlled media feed of the opposition. The internet and web sites like this one changed all that. I owe a debt of gratitude to all of you who have posted here over the years, defended and defined the role of gold, and established the solid floor upon which this table round sits. You played a role in establishing the foundation upon which this second edition of the book stands.

As for Barrick, it is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma. If you don't believe it, go to their web site and read its explanations of its hedge book. For me, the $1 billion bond offer is the direct refutation of the forward sales/carry trades that comprised its mode of operation in a previous life. That cannot be viewed as anything but bullish for the gold price in general, and, I believe, the cornerstone by what it signifies, for what Richard Russell recently annointed the second leg in the bull market on gold.

All the best. . . .
TownCrier
(11/16/2004; 21:22:17 MDT - Msg ID: 126452)
Bottom line: market designers want you have gold's price, but NOT its substance
http://www.futuresource.com/news/story.jsp?i=i4511074418816909376Ask yourself why.

Because there's not enough metal for everyone, and they would rather keep the situation in check by distracting you with certificates of one sort or another while they keep the security of gold metal for themselves and the preeminent entities who will neither be fooled or stand for less.

See excerpt from article below...

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--The Securities and Exchange Commission is believed to
be close to agreeing to the launch of two gold-backed exchange-traded funds
in the U.S...

The World Gold Council's 'streetTRACKS' Gold Trust is expected to be
launched on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol "GLD" within a
matter of days.

The fund is structured into "baskets" of 100,000 New York Stock Exchange-
listed shares backed by 10,000 ounces of gold - pricing each share at 1/10 of
an ounce of gold. The Net Asset Value of the trust's gold holdings will be
derived daily from the price of an ounce of gold as fixed by the members of
the London Bullion Market Association at 3:00 PM London time.

HSBC Bank USA N.A. will act as the custodian of the trust...

While the fund itself will only sell to qualified buyers who must buy in
10,000-ounce baskets worth around $4.35 million at current prices, individual
investors will be able to buy small lots from the 'basket' holders.

Barclays Global Investors, meanwhile, are seen soon launching another gold-
backed ETF called the iShares Comex Gold Trust on the American Stock Exchange
under the symbol "IAU". The Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS) is named as the
custodian of the trust, while Bank of New York Co. is named as the Trustee.

iShares will also be backed by one-tenth of an ounce of gold and are
designed to mimic the price of gold futures traded on Comex.

Both funds are designed to allow U.S. investors the opportunity to invest
in gold-backed shares that entitle holders to exposure to the gold price
without requiring actual custody of the metal...

...the timing of the launches couldn't be
better.

"With prices at 16-year highs gold is on more radar screens than for a
while, so it's a good time to be coming out with new instruments with which
to invest in [Randy says, w/r/t metal, DISTRACT from] gold," argued Paul McLeod, vice president of precious metals
trading at Commerzbank in New York.

McLeod stressed that the ETFs would be unlikely to generate a
surge in demand that would send prices sharply higher.

"I think there is demand out there for these products, and they'll
certainly be supportive for the market, but I can't see any fireworks once
they're launched," he argued.

....While the market is generally friendly to the new vehicles, some followers
have raised concern that they might cannibalize demand for gold mining
equities.

"It will be interesting to see if people who are currently invested in gold
mining companies get out of equities and into these shares because of the
purer exposure to the gold price," argued a precious metals dealer with New
York-based European investment bank.

"It could be that owning mine shares has its company-specific drawbacks,
while with gold-backed shares you have less to be concerned with," he said.

-----(from article at url)---

Notice how none of the mainstream press will touch the idea of direct metal ownership. The closest they come to dealing with the diversion element is with respect to gold mining stocks, and even have the gall to say "owning mine shares has its company-specific drawbacks, while with gold-backed shares you have less to be concerned with". That is very nearly a case of the pot calling the kettle black. If they truly wanted to impress upon their readers the meaning of security from risk of bankruptcy, default, or management scandal, then why don't they come right out and point them directly to physical gold ownership as the king of that domain? To answer that, I refer you again to my words in the opening paragraph of this post.

Stick with USAGOLD and, with the savage winds of the markets swirling around you, you will yet be standing tall with the preeminent entities who would neither be fooled nor stand for less.

Think of it as your personal reward for building up your base of knowledge and understanding.

R.
Sundeck
(11/16/2004; 21:29:06 MDT - Msg ID: 126453)
On the falling price of gold 1980 - 2001
BB Msg#126448 and others,

I suppose there was a fair proportion of the financial (and non-financial) world who really believed gold was dead in the long gold bear market from 1980 to 2001. There ae many who still persist...which is a good sign, because it may indicate that this golden bull has a bit of charge left in him yet...

A few years ago I remarked to an old friend (a partner in a major accounting firm) that gold was going to rise greatly in (US-dollar) price...it was probably around US$300 then. "Oh no. Gold has lost its monetary role." and all that. Every time I have seen him since, he comments on how the price of gold has risen "just as you said it would". He still seems a little incredulous when I tell him it probaby has a lot further to go.

Now here is a guy, competent in his field in a major accounting firm who is unable to see (or unwilling to believe) the problem facing the world's financial system. I suspect many of these guys are just too submerged in the system to have an overall perspective...can't see the forest for the trees, as it were. What hope the daily touts on all the financial shows who have to appear to say something intelligent each day and every day with an enthusiastic voice and confident body-language?

;-)

Knallgold
(11/16/2004; 23:48:36 MDT - Msg ID: 126454)
ETF's
"(Barclays) iShares will also be backed by one-tenth of an ounce of gold and are designed to mimic the price of gold futures traded on Comex."

"(WGC) The Net Asset Value of the trust's gold holdings will be DERIVED daily from the price of an ounce of gold as fixed by the members of the London Bullion Market Association at 3:00 PM London time. "

Ah yes,they are divided.And derived.I've read these ETfs can be shorted,the crux of it-if they declare "unshortable",I will revise my view about it (slightly).

Sounds like a big freudian slip here,"mimic the price of gold futures (traded on Comex,resp.FIXED on LBMA)".No wonder they go further with "while with gold-backed shares you have less to be concerned with"-less concerned???Do I have to be concerned?Thanks,with my coins I'm not at all concerned.

" ....While the market is generally friendly to the new vehicles, some followers have raised concern that they might cannibalize demand for gold mining
equities." -Nice cover for the miserable performance of the mining shares recently.


968
(11/17/2004; 01:05:51 MDT - Msg ID: 126455)
Central Banks and Financial Stability.
http://www.bcl.lu/fr/bcl/pierre_werner/Discours_Lamfalussy.pdfInteresting speech by Alexandre L�mfalussy, former head of the BIS and President of the European Monetary Institute on 26th oct. in the Offices of the Banque Central du Luxembourg.
Worth a read.
Knallgold
(11/17/2004; 01:23:55 MDT - Msg ID: 126456)
Spot is spiking again
Question is,when will it rise in the other currencys?Or,when will we be at the 350 euro crossing?
Sundeck
(11/17/2004; 03:06:11 MDT - Msg ID: 126457)
POG ... the feeling.
Isn't it amazing, with POG over US$400, it all feels a bit ho-hum now.

Remember back when gold was at about $290, everyone was wondering if it would make $300 and hold...and then there was the surge to $380 and the correction...how everyone felt.

Well here we are at $444 and things don't look like stopping... Sure there will be some corrections along the way, but "nothing fundamentally has changed".

Wait for the fundamental change...some of you may live long enough...and be able to recognise it...

;-)
spotlight
(11/17/2004; 04:28:19 MDT - Msg ID: 126458)
Exchange traded funds
Blackblade or any knowlegable posters reply would be appreciated.
I understand that the ETF, due to open shortly on the NY exchange has an intial price offering of $100 million. If it is true that they will be purchasing gold for its shareholders, does it not follow that the $100 million will have to be spent all at once for gold bullion?

Also, how much would that amount of gold purchased at one time increase the gold price?
Caradoc
(11/17/2004; 04:35:23 MDT - Msg ID: 126459)
mixing the metaphors
Looks like the train left the station a couple of weeks ago, is beginning to pick up speed, and is about to blast off. Or maybe the basketball has been released from the bottom of the swimming pool and is beginning its rise through the water. Congratulations to all!

Leaving metaphors behind for just a second, there's always the possibility of a final pre-surge plunge to shake off the last of those who aren't truly invested. Even without such a preliminary plunge, what's coming will test us all. Thanks to the various linguistic streams that flowed together to create the English language, you can call it pluck or courage or just guts. One way or another, this market will test your innards.

So, gird up your loins and prepare to demonstrate Yankee grit, Eestii joon, Dutch bullheadedness, or whatever your source of resolve. The days of $20 rises and $27 plunges will prepare you to cope with bigger increases and even bigger plunges. You'll be living through a saga, but it will end like a fairytale from the brothers Grimm: "They all lived happily everafter" or "Wann er nicht gestorben ist, lebt er dort immer noch."

Regards to all,

Caradoc
Gondolin
(11/17/2004; 06:45:59 MDT - Msg ID: 126460)
Cometose 126277 Dow 30 Year Chart
Cometose,

Sorry for the late reply, thanks for the link, have only had a chance to catch up on some reading today.

Still a long long way for Humpty Dumpty to fall off that wall.

By the way Humpty Dumpty? Fell off that wall? Warning to parents. If your last name is Dumpty- don't name him Humpty. He jumped. Boom Boom.


Cometose
(11/17/2004; 06:55:05 MDT - Msg ID: 126461)
CaptainHookarticle
SAYS that their may be GASOLINE GOING INTO THIS FIRE ......
as in ACCELERANT>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
as in SHORT SQUEEZE.........

SOMEONE ELSE mentioned that possibility last night as well...

I LOVE A GOOD FIRE , DON'T YOU ....

Love what the CHINESE HAVE DONE WITH THE PLACE OVER NIGHT???

Cytek
(11/17/2004; 09:19:36 MDT - Msg ID: 126462)
GLAD I BOUGHT PHYSICAL
My junior mine investments aren't even close to where they were at the begining of the year when Gold was at $425. Physical is, and will always be a safe investment.

GO POG

CYTEK
Gandalf the White
(11/17/2004; 09:49:17 MDT - Msg ID: 126463)
MANY THINGS are looking "STRANGE" and the POG is going UP !
http://charts-d.quote.com:443/1002980432830?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=DX00Y∬erval=10&Ht=600&Wd=800&Display=2&Study=MA&Param1=13&Param2=0&Param3=&FontSize=10The ESF and Bookies are not able to paint the charts like they used to ! They now can only pump the Stock Market Dow Average up 100 points, while the US$ is CRASHING to new lows !
This is GREAT for the "POG" and new HIGHS are being made, with ANOTHER little Green "X" due to be made on the GOLD P&F Chart today !
Love that the EXPERTS are still saying that GOLD must "correct" to lower level, while it is -----
GOING to the MOON soon!!!
CALL USAGOLD and get your PHYSICAL in your hands NOW.
<;-)
TownCrier
(11/17/2004; 10:55:25 MDT - Msg ID: 126464)
Dollar slide, how far, how fast? -- Int'l worries
http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh34201_2004-11-17_15-20-54_l175295_newsmlSTOCKHOLM, Nov 17 (Reuters) - The Swedish central bank joined other policy makers on Wednesday in expressing fears about a possible rapid correction in the U.S.....

Deputy central bank governor Irma Rosenberg said ... "So far the adjustment has been orderly, but it could become a faster and sharper correction, which the Riksbank has long highlighted as a risk. This would subdue developments internationally."

...However, Finance Minister Par Nuder said last week that he was not worried so far about the rate of the dollar's decline.

-----(from url)-----

The dollar has become like a green hot potato. How long will you hold it before you're burned by it? Choose gold for long-term holdings.

R.
TownCrier
(11/17/2004; 11:22:17 MDT - Msg ID: 126465)
Your only control regarding dollar's fate is deciding how long you'll share the fall before exiting
http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh35983_2004-11-17_16-46-12_n17409307_newsmlHEADLINE: Dollar sinks to all-time low vs euro, G20 looms

NEW YORK, Nov 17 (Reuters) - The dollar plunged to an all-time low against the euro on Wednesday ahead of an upcoming G20 finance ministers' meeting in Berlin, as analysts fretted that officials would do little to stem the greenback's fall.

...Analysts were hoping that G20 finance ministers and central bank chiefs would exert pressure on China to let its yuan currency rise against the greenback.

Friday's G20 gathering of rich and emerging market nations overshadowed the hefty rise in U.S. consumer prices for October, the surge in U.S. housing starts, and a jump in industrial production, analysts said, with the dollar showing little reaction to the generally positive U.S. economic data.

"The dollar is going to be driven by policy, what Snow says, and what happens in the G20 meeting, more than U.S. economic data," said Larry Brickman, currency strategist at Bank of America in New York.

Snow, who was in London on a visit, poured cold water on any hopes of a weekend G20 accord to slow the U.S. currency's decline. He said the United States could not impose currency values, but countries could not devalue their way to prosperity.

Snow's comments should be interpreted globally "as a very strong signal that the U.S. is not going to work to keep this dollar strong and it's not going to intervene," said Lara Rhame, foreign exchange strategist, Credit Suisse First Boston in New York.

"This isn't about economic differentials or interest rates. The dollar's well-offered and I think this weakness is going to continue," said John McCarthy, director of currency trading, ING Capital Markets in New York.

"The market continues to ignore any news that might be construed as positive for the dollar," he added.

-----(from url)-----

The dollar is heading lower for every reason you've been reading about at these pages.

At future family Thanksgiving gatherings, will you be among those who will be able to proudly boast (and needle "Mr. Smarty-pants" -- you know who, there's one in every family) that you bought gold below $500 per ounce?

As you sit down to enjoy a REAL dinner, enjoy the added comfort that you have done so with REAL savings for all the days going forward. Call USAGOLD-Centennial today to lock in your arrangements before the next leg higher.

R.
Gondolin
(11/17/2004; 11:22:47 MDT - Msg ID: 126466)
Snows Comments
Just heard again Snows comments today on CNBC reaffirming his strong dollar policy.

Not word for word but what exactly does he mean by the Presidents policies reducing the deficit to a level that would actually be 'historically low'. Historical over what period of time? Guess thay must only be looking at a historical timespan of about 6 months at the most.

Definitely a Snow Job. Empty rhetoric and hoo haa which actually said and achieved nothing.

Ah well, judging by the action today the strong dollar policy all seems to be good for POG. Keep at it John, $450 this week.
TownCrier
(11/17/2004; 11:41:19 MDT - Msg ID: 126467)
Considering an IRA transfer or rollover?
http://www.usagold.com/IRA.html
George Cooper at USAGOLD-Centennial is your man.

See url for more details.

R.
TownCrier
(11/17/2004; 11:47:49 MDT - Msg ID: 126468)
Investing in gold: Want more information at your fingertips?
http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.htmlRequest an info packet from USAGOLD-Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. -- confidently and professionally serving the needs of gold investors since 1973.

It's FREE to all prospective clients. See url to request yours today.

R.
TownCrier
(11/17/2004; 12:08:15 MDT - Msg ID: 126469)
Addressing the dollar's decline
http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=reutersEdge&storyID=6843735FRANKFURT (Reuters) - An economic policy rift is opening between Europe and the United States over the tumbling U.S. dollar and the European Central Bank has limited scope to contain the fallout.

The dollar's decline has sent the euro surging 7.3 percent since September 1 to a record high on Wednesday at $1.3035.

If it continues at this rate -- and some market dealers forecast $1.40 next year -- euro strength could snuff out the euro zone's fragile, export-driven recovery, which already is showing signs of sputtering.

But the U.S. appears unwilling to tackle quickly the major cause of the dollar's decline - its low savings rate and a yawning U.S. current account deficit of more than 5 percent of national output.

Worse still, some U.S. Federal Reserve officials are talking of the benefits of a weaker dollar. And Asian countries with exchange rates pegged to the dollar are not ready to let their currencies float freely.

This leaves the euro squeezed in the middle. ...... a rate cut looks highly unlikely. ECB policymakers are starting to acknowledge the downside risks to growth but, equally, they are fretting about inflationary risks.

"The euro is bearing the brunt of this dollar decline, and at the end of the day there is a limit to what words can do," said David Walton, chief economist at Goldman Sachs and Co.

[On forex intervention]...."The U.S. is only going to be interested if the decline is disorderly and causing disruptions to capital markets in the U.S. and we are nowhere near that situation."


No wonder that ECB policymakers are starting to complain that the U.S. is putting Europe in an awkward position.

In an interview last week, ECB Governing Council member Klaus Liebscher told Reuters, "it doesn't help very much" when the U.S. Treasury officially supports a strong dollar but Fed officials talk up a weaker dollar.

"What's happening in international economics is very similar to what happened over Iraq," said ABN AMRO's Carrick. "The Americans are just doing what they want to do and the rest of the world is told to get on with it."

------(from article at url)----

Talking up the dollar, talking down the dollar...

Bottom line: talk is cheap. But, then again, so is gold, especially when considered against historic prices on an inflation-adjusted dollar basis. Time to load up the vault as security for the time ahead.

R.
Gandalf the White
(11/17/2004; 12:17:56 MDT - Msg ID: 126470)
WOWERS !! GREAT job today SPIKE and SPOT !!
The PAPER GOLD COMEX Dec. '04 Contract
Open $443.5 HIGH $445.4 low $442.3
SETTLEMENT = $445.1 Chankge +$4.6
===
HOW HIGH is the moon ?
<;-)
Ned
(11/17/2004; 12:18:41 MDT - Msg ID: 126471)
Help please.............
....does anyone have a multi-year chart of the dollar (DX).

What is the next support for the dollar? I have heard at or near 80 or possibly 82.

Thanks.

Ned.
TownCrier
(11/17/2004; 12:22:47 MDT - Msg ID: 126472)
US sees growing importance of G20; wants to avoid dollar spat
http://www.thedailystar.net/2004/11/18/d41118050752.htmNovember 18, AFP, London

US officials see a growing importance of the Group of 20 economic gathering and plan to use this week's Berlin forum to push pro-growth efforts, while hoping to avoid a row over the sagging dollar.

The G20 opens a meeting Friday in Berlin of finance ministers and central bank governors.

Washington views the gathering as an occasion to discuss key efforts of economic collaboration, such as debt relief for the poorest nations, reforms at the International Monetary Fund and so-called "collective action" clauses that would allow for an orderly process in case of bond defaults.

..."It's a very good forum for discussing emerging market issues, the success of collective action clauses, further reforms in the IMF," a US Treasury official said. "I think there will be more discussion of a proposal to reduce the debt of the poorest countries."

The US delegation, headed by Snow, has been attempting to deflect criticism about the weak dollar and the big deficits blamed for the currency's slide, and instead wants to focus on economic growth initiatives.

-----(from url)-----

As long as they all go into these talks with realistic expectations, that is, with inflation as the primarily expected outcome, then no-one will emerge terribly disappointed.

Choose gold, the only safe haven functioning also as an international utility. Let it be your next port of call. Phone USAGOLD-Centennial to book your safe and smooth arrival.

R.
The Hoople
(11/17/2004; 12:40:46 MDT - Msg ID: 126473)
Ned
Sorry, no chart. FWIW back in the spring Richard Russell said he would watch the bond at 108.3 and the dollar at 82. He viewed these as critical to watch. I taped those numbers to my computer and watch them closely.
Caradoc
(11/17/2004; 12:42:40 MDT - Msg ID: 126474)
For Ned
http://www.sitedynamo.com/cwsv3/trial530369/MiscFiles/pdf1.pdfChart 3 of 5 (linked from Sinclair's site) shows the multiyear rise and fall of the dollar plus a "head and shoulders" assessment to the effect that the fall has just begun. For what it's worth, there is no current support level from recent years. Going back further, people claim to see support at various numbers. Even if it's there at .76 or .71 or .62 or .51, it still bodes well for gold as priced in dollars.

Caradoc
Boilermaker
(11/17/2004; 12:58:23 MDT - Msg ID: 126475)
Gold ETF from the WGC
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1222333/000095013604003776/file001.htm
Read pages 1 through 15 of the linked red herring. The fund can issue shares (120 million shares representing 12 million ounces of gold) that will represent 375 tons of gold. This may be what's driving the gold market right now, ie, "authorized participants" purchasing gold or gold derivitives in anticipation of delivering same to the fund in 10,000 ounce "baskets" for which 100,000 shares will be issued to them for sale to the public.
When you get into the nuts and bolts and risk factors of this fund it becomes clear that it will never provide the security that physical ownership provides.

snips:
"Termination events The Sponsor may, and it is anticipated that the Sponsor will, direct the Trustee to terminate and liquidate the Trust at any time after the first anniversary of the Trust's formation when the NAV of the Trust is less than $350 million (as adjusted for inflation). The Sponsor may also direct the Trustee to terminate the Trust if the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) determines that the Trust is a commodities pool under the Commodity Exchange Act of 1936, as amended (CEA). The Trustee may also terminate the Trust upon the agreement of the owners of beneficial interests in the Shares (Shareholders) owning at least 66 2/3% of the outstanding Shares.
The Trustee will terminate and liquidate the Trust if one of the following events occurs:
�� DTC, the securities depository for the Shares, is unwilling or unable to perform its functions under the Trust Indenture and no suitable replacement is available;
�� The Shares are de-listed from the NYSE and are not listed for trading on another US national securities exchange or through the Nasdaq Stock Market within five business days from the date the Shares are de-listed;
�� The NAV of the Trust remains less than $50 million for a period of 50 consecutive business days at any time after the first 90 days of the Shares being traded on the NYSE;
�� The Sponsor resigns or is unable to perform its duties or becomes bankrupt or insolvent and the Trustee has not appointed a successor and has not itself agreed to act as sponsor;
�� The Trustee resigns or is removed and no successor trustee is appointed within 60 days;
�� The Custodian resigns and no successor custodian is appointed within 60 days;
�� The sale of all of the Trust's assets;
�� The Trust fails to qualify for treatment, or ceases to be treated, for US federal income tax purposes, as a grantor trust; or
�� The maximum period for which the Trust is allowed to exist under New York law ends.

Upon the termination of the Trust, the Trustee will, within a reasonable time after the termination of the Trust, sell the Trust's gold and, after paying or making provision for the Trust's liabilities, distribute the proceeds to the Shareholders. See "Description of the Trust Indenture �� Termination of the Trust."

"The Trust may not have adequate sources of recovery if its gold is lost, damaged, stolen or destroyed and recovery may be limited, even in the event of fraud, to the market value of the gold at the time the fraud is discovered.
Shareholders' recourse against the Trust, the Trustee and the Sponsor, under New York law, the Custodian, under English law, and any subcustodians under the law governing their custody operations is limited. The Trust will not insure its gold."

" Because neither the Trustee nor the Custodian oversees or monitors the activities of subcustodians who may hold the Trust's gold, failure by the subcustodians to exercise due care in the safekeeping of the Trust's gold could result in a loss to the Trust.
Under the Allocated Bullion Account Agreement described in "Description of the Custody Agreements," the Custodian may appoint from time to time one or more subcustodians to hold the Trust's gold. The subcustodians which the Custodian currently uses are the Bank of England and LBMA market-making members that provide bullion vaulting and clearing services to third parties. The Custodian is required under the Allocated Bullion Account Agreement to use reasonable care in appointing its subcustodians but otherwise has no other responsibility in relation to the subcustodians appointed by it. These subcustodians may in turn appoint further subcustodians, but the Custodian is not responsible for the appointment of these further subcustodians. The Custodian does not undertake to monitor the performance by subcustodians of their custody functions or their selection of further subcustodians. The Trustee does not undertake to monitor the performance of any subcustodian. Furthermore, the Trustee may have no right to visit the premises of any subcustodian for the purposes of examining the Trust's gold or any records maintained by the subcustodian, and no subcustodian will be obligated to cooperate in any review the Trustee may wish to conduct of the facilities, procedures, records or creditworthiness of such subcustodian."

comment:
Its clear that this fund can be terminated for any of a number of events some of which could be "manufactured" at any time. It's also clear there is no audit of the gold, it will be spread all over the world and possibly loaned out. American investors should love it but this goldbug won't touch it. Looks like an ETF for Dummies. But that said it will probably create a lot of short term demand for pysical that may come out of the pockets of the shorts on Comex. Look for unusual delivery demand for the December contract.


Simply Me
(11/17/2004; 12:58:24 MDT - Msg ID: 126476)
(No Subject)
I wonder which bond is getting too heavy for the Fed to carry?
Clink!
(11/17/2004; 14:20:25 MDT - Msg ID: 126478)
That made me laugh
I know I mentioned diabolical English spelling last week (or rather, the GAB mentioned diabolical misspelling) but I didn't expect to see it used by stock touters as in the message which Mr. Admin has just removed (thank you, sir, it's a dirty job but someone's got to do it ....)

The pitch ended "It is the diamond in the ruff." I just had an instant image of Queen Elizabeth I in all her finery. "Oh! A plague on all those words with 'ough' in them !"

C!

Aristotle
(11/17/2004; 14:37:25 MDT - Msg ID: 126479)
Boilermaker (msg#: 126475) -- well posted
I can only hope that everyone with an opportunity to read your post does so in a moment of focused attention, and comes away with a better understanding of the disturbing vagaries of *ownership* presented in schemes like that. At the end of the day it is important to be the Custodian of your own Gold. Now get this. As strange as it may seem, even in doing so you are also likely serving as a subcustodian at your leisure (i.e., under no obligation to deliver) for some *other* poor chump who foolishly entrusted his own fortune to a Gold account within the bullion banking universe which fungibly reallocated it around the town where it eventually wound up in your hands and in mine as buyers. No strings attached, baby, that Gold is ours, and mine will be used or exchanged only on my say so.

That's the way it's supposed to be done, folks. Easy and breezy. Being a custodian of Gold is the simplest gig in the world -- you don't have to clean up behind it or make periodic repairs or polishings. Heck, you don't even have to dust it if you don't want to. Just take a wise old wizard's advice famously given to an innocent and naive Frodo Baggins. "Keep it (reasonably) secret, keep it safe."

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle
USAGOLD Daily Market Report
(11/17/2004; 15:27:06 MDT - Msg ID: 126480)
Page Update!
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Daily Gold Market Report has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.

Wednesday market excerpts

U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow, traveling in Europe, reiterated Wednesday that a "strong dollar" policy is in the interest of the U.S. But "traders believe there is nothing from a fiscal point of view that can change the dollar's decline in the near term, due to the trade deficit and spending deficits," said John Person, president of National Futures Advisory Service.

...While the U.S. dollar's renewed weakness was the primary driver of gold's move higher, news of a rise in U.S. consumer inflation added extra fuel.

The Consumer Price Index rose by a larger-than-expected 0.6% last month, three times the rate in September and the largest gain in five months, the Labor Department said Wednesday.

Wall Street expected a smaller increase of around 0.4%. With U.S. producer prices having risen by more than expected Tuesday, speculators and investors turned to gold as a safe haven and inflation hedge through the day.

"This is a very fertile environment for gold prices to appreciate," said Person, adding that he continues to believe prices will reach $475 by year's end, 6.7 percent higher than its current level.

Comex December gold climbed to a high of $445.40 before closing at $445.10, up $4.60 for the session. Prices haven't closed at a level this high since July 1988, according to weekly charts.

Over the past six months, prices have managed to gain $70 an ounce, or almost 19 percent, noted Dale Doelling, chief market commentator at Bullion.com in Chicago. "It's impossible to forecast when this trend will end, as the market continuesto rack up new highs on an almost daily basis," he said. But "the legs on this bull remain strong."

---(see url for access to full news, 24-hr international newswire)---
Federal_Reserves
(11/17/2004; 15:56:34 MDT - Msg ID: 126481)
Why are we in IRAQ?
Can't see it anymore. Really never supported the war in the first place, I did like stepped up inspections accompanied by military, while we strictly enforced the no fly zones. But now, we should leave. If you were told there were termites (WMD) in your house, and you had to knock major pieces of it down, to save the rest, then in the middle of the destruction you were told, sorry we made a mistake, no termites, wouldn't you stop knocking your house down and go hell bent for leather on the person who said you had termites? I believe our country has some insane aspects to it policywise, war, deficits, denial. Whenever this happens, gold rises. Until and as such time as we detect a change, there is no reason to let loose of your gold.

TownCrier
(11/17/2004; 16:08:19 MDT - Msg ID: 126482)
Gold's "IPO"
http://www.iii.co.uk/news/?type=afxnews&articleid=5121014⊂ject=companies∾tion=articleHEADLINE: SEC lets trading in gold-backed scrips

NY, BLOOMBERG -- ...New York-based StreetTRACKS Gold Trust's prospectus to sell about 120 million shares was cleared by US Securities & Exchange Commission a spokeswoman said. The trust is cleared to price and sell the stock under the symbol GLD. StreetTRACKS is selling 2.3 million shares through UBS Securities LLC, which is managing the initial public offering, the company said in a filing on Wednesday with the commission.

Also...

HEADLINE: Gold ETF expected to launch Thursday

BOSTON (AFX) -- The first exchange-traded fund investing in gold bullion will begin trading on the New York Stock Exchange on Thursday, said sources familiar with the situation. ... Blocks of 100,000 shares are redeemable into gold bullion, and shares should be priced at about 1/10th price of a troy ounce of gold but will deviate over time since the 0.4 percent expense ratio will come out of selling underlying gold to pay expenses of the trust.

----(latter from url)----

"Redeemable"... in share-blocks of 100,000, corresponding currently to a market position of $4.45 million.

Alrighty, then. "Redeemability", it would seem, is not a mechanism being reserved for us mere mortals. In this design, you may have the price in the form of yet another promise in a long line of promises, buy you will not have the benefits conveyed by the substance of gold in its proximity to your self as the unquestionable owner of an item of tangible property. By choosing substance over substitutes, counterparty risk of every imaginable sort has been eliminated from your position.

However, despite the caution counsels of wisdom, the IPO will likely be a success, if for no other reason than the fact that lots of potentially gold-seeking dollars are now tied up in various retirement programs, and among these paper-only dollars a significant amount will likely decide that inclusion of a goldish-paper position is better than the status quo without it.

Existing outside the contraints of retirement plans, those happy customers with free, unencumbered dollars in their pockets will likely prefer to continue seeking full-bodied diversification with free, unencumbered gold. And that's where USAGOLD-Centennial fits into your life's gameplan.

R.
lifer
(11/17/2004; 16:38:12 MDT - Msg ID: 126483)
ETF
A question to the Table Round--does the launch of the ETF mean that a lot of gold will have to be purchased therefore sending the price of gold soaring?

It appears to me that this is another paper drill to control the price of gold --or does it let the paper printers(stock market) in on this golden bull?

I like physical with no paper tricks==thanks to MK for the little I have purchased--great site--thanks for the worldly education==been reading for 3 years---love the brainy posters!!!
DryWasher
(11/17/2004; 17:09:49 MDT - Msg ID: 126485)
Why are we in IRAQ? and Gold ETF from the WGC.
http://www.ratical.org/ratville/CAH/RRiraqWar.html
Federal_Reserves (msg#: 126481)
Why are we in IRAQ?
In a single word OIL.
In my opinion the above link is a good starting point in understanding what the war is REALLY all about.


Boilermaker (msg#: 126475)
Aristotle (msg#: 126479)
TownCrier (msg#: 126482)

AMEN all three good Sirs.

To this old desert rat ownership means having it in MY possession, period.

DryWasher.
Aristotle
(11/17/2004; 17:14:31 MDT - Msg ID: 126486)
lifer -- a word or two on ETF pre-launch physical preps
According to everyone's favorite little frightened bullion banking operative, Andy Smith, he estimates that both of the new U.S. fund designers may have each estimated their U.S. needs as 5-times that of the U.K. fund experience, based on a population factor.

Just to insert a quick word on that point, one must wonder whether adjustments to a simple population factor might be warranted, say, based on national capitalization in general, and also on prevailing sentiment based on country-specific exchange rate trends. One might expect more flight from an obviously sinking dollar than from a listless pound.

Improvements notwithstanding, Agent Smith anticipates a pre-launch demand for 460 tonnes, that amount being two funds each times the population factor of five times the 46 tonnes absorbed in the UK's Gold Bullion Securities program.

Agent Smith would like us to believe that this has all the hallmarks of a "one-off" event, and that the Gold price is likely to fall as soon as the various Custodians and subcustodians have each been settled with the total requisite allocations of Metal.

Sheeeeeeeeeesh. Well, I guess he's got a job to do, so we shouldn't fault him personally for his feeble attempts to delay the inevitable. Awwww hell, who am I trying to kid? Sure we can! (Fault him personally, that is.) He should buck up and make the right decision -- go out and find a more respectible line of work.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle
Sundeck
(11/17/2004; 17:18:31 MDT - Msg ID: 126487)
ETF - "Trusts"
@Boilermaker Msg #126475

Good one....

You can see why they call these things "trusts" ... perhaps "blind trusts" would be a more appropriate name ... or better still "blind faiths", because one would need a lot of faith in the "system" to put loads of dough into them...

On the other hand, maybe "gold in hand" should be called a "faith" as opposed to "paper in hand" called a "trust".

Just rambling...

;-)

Noble1
(11/17/2004; 17:43:20 MDT - Msg ID: 126488)
ETF

Boilermaker-

Thanks for the link to the EDGAR website detailing the prospectus for the WGC ETF. Judging from my scrollbar I am only halfway through skimming it and find it nothing short of amazing. As far as the risk factors go that you snip from the prospectus, they are no different than those of any other IPO. They are blah, blah, blah. I know that won't make me popular around here. I must tell you. All the gold that I possess is PGIP and do agree that it is the ultimate form of security. However, there are many investing individuals and institutions that are either unwilling or unable to take PGIP. This ETF is creating the opportunity for them to participate in the gold market in a way that will educate them as to the value of holding gold. I do not believe they would enter this market otherwise. As I see it, so far, this ETF will encumber PG. As more people become educated, familiar with, and invested in gold, the more that they will value it and be willing to trade it in day to day business and investment. This is a good thing for us. I think the fears of this instrument are founded (because of past paper gold initiatives) but unjustified. Read their "analysis" on the POG and their "case for investing in gold". You would think that they were regular posters on USAG. Yes, they report that the shares are available for margin accounts. I assume this means that they can be shorted. We all know what shorting and the use of derivatives in a carry trade have done to the POG in the past. At first thought-not good. But, I hope to have this question answered as I continue through the prospectus or maybe by one of our more knowledgable posters. They state that the majority of the gold will be allocated gold, other than that needed for day to day business. So, if the consumer purchases the shares and the PG becomes allocated, will the shorting of the paper shares result in just that, a shorting of the paper shares which must be covered, or will it result in a sale of PG by the fund? (thus supplying the market).
Please excuse me as I am not going to proofread this for typos(which I always have) or accuracy. I am just typing off the top of my head. Some of what I have posted may not turn out to be accurate as I may be misreading the prospectus. As we continue to learn about this product I hope we can keep an open mind and consider it's merits as well as it's warts.
Back to the prospectus. Hope to keep this discussion going. I think this development may prove to be monumental!

Remember:

Fiat (currently) may be currency but man has always had a passion for gold, therefore, gold will always represent wealth and value regardless of the fate of the fiats.

Noble1
lifer
(11/17/2004; 18:06:09 MDT - Msg ID: 126489)
ETF
Ari--thanks for the response---maybe we are on the edge of a momentus occasion. I don't know who has the right answer but to make this ETF run it appears to me somebody has to purchase gold to make it work and surely, at least at the start, it should impact the price, but where it takes all of us in the long run may not be desireable.

Real gold get some.
Paper Avalanche
(11/17/2004; 18:22:11 MDT - Msg ID: 126490)
100,000 Share Blocks Redeemable - Fractional Reserve Banking
The amount of gold required to be held at any given time by the ETF is equal only to the amount of physical gold that may be demanded by those who possess a block of 100,000 or more shares in the ETF. In essence, if no one owner in the ETF should have a block of shares greater than 100,000 (or even if they should there would exist some reserve ratio), then the whole ETF concept is a replication of our fractional reserve banking system (which only one in about 10,000 persons understands because the rest of the population would rather listen to sports talk radio or watch reality TV).

Be entertained or be educated. Be sovereign or be chattel.

We are embarking on a separation between the haves and the have-nots that will rival most modern financial conflagrations.

Knowledge is what separates the masters from the slaves.

I and my line will be masters.

Take care.

PA
da2g
(11/17/2004; 18:27:20 MDT - Msg ID: 126491)
November 12, 2001
"I am going to travel for a while and watch the trail from a distance. It won't be long before the rains come and the ground begins to open; in that time I will return. Until then; this farmer will rest from this work.

Thank you USAGOLD and all the fine people that make this media the best gold site in the world! Another time, we WILL hike again."

How about it, Sir Douglas? Three years is a dreadful wait.
mikal
(11/17/2004; 18:38:12 MDT - Msg ID: 126492)
@lifer
ETF- Early Warning Flag/Fund? Maybe it's a sign of desperation, like it's derivative cousins- the latest banker investment "innovation" to sell their mothers and brothers down the river. Or naivete' or honest concern. Different strokes for different folks and all. But as the investment universe expands in coverage and complexity (and other gold ETF's, e-gold, gold IRA's etc. DID precede the two US versions), it's partly just evolution. A market
response of supply meeting demand. Take-out food or gourmet. The choice is ours. But sometimes one man's meat IS another's poison. It's just that it takes all kinds to make a world. And to some variety is even the spice of life. Which just goes to prove Aristotle's axiom, "you don't even have to dust gold"- because it makes it's own!
Noble1
(11/17/2004; 18:47:54 MDT - Msg ID: 126493)
WGC-ETF

I skimmed thru the rest of the prospectus and bookmarked it for further review. The way I see it , we should not look upon this product as a threat. The majority of the moneys going into this device are not coming from PGIP advocates. (us). If so, they would already be there. They will come from IRAs, 401Ks, institutional investors, and others currently unable or unwilling to purchase gold and will represent NEW investment into gold. We have posted for years about our discussions with friends, relatives, and others about our commitment to gold only to be met with scepticism and disgust. Recently, I've been approached, numerous times, about how to purchase gold. But most are not interested in physically holding an Eagle. Rather, they want to trade the product in a manner in which they are accustomed. For better or worse, the NYSE and their existing brokerage account. Hopefully, this will introduce many new investors into the market and many of them will learn what the private ownership of PGIP has to offer and make additional purchases as such.

The ETFs will bring new investors into the market, will consume gold, and add ANOTHER fundamental contribution to our current bull market.

Remember:

The hottest fever is GOLD FEVER.

Noble1

Chally
(11/17/2004; 19:15:48 MDT - Msg ID: 126494)
For Ned....USDX chart help...and Hello Michael et al...
http://www.britefutures.com/home.aspNed,

Beautiful charts here, and you don't have to sign up to use 'em. Look to the left under 'currencies' for DX. 1 click gets ya to the chart menu. Select 'monthly'. Scroll to the data beneath the chart (default is 150 bars I think, but you can customize to 225+ months.

You'll see several drops to 80, and one 79+ close going back to early 90's. Draw your own conclusion as to their relavence 13 yrs down the road.

-------------------------AUAUAUAUAU-------------------------

Thank God for MK and Sinclair. Michael guided me to my first 'REAL' purchase at $350 18 mos. ago following my reading ABC's. Sinclair taught me how to BUY and SELL.My eyes are wide open and I'm not losing any sleep. Using futures for 'profit' to ramp up the REAL portion when the times are right.

Thanks all for some really interesting reading here!!
TownCrier
(11/17/2004; 19:37:25 MDT - Msg ID: 126495)
Different this time...
http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh42600_2004-11-17_23-23-32_wat002199_newsmlHEADLINE: U.S. cannot grow out of deficits-Fed's Gramlich

ONEONTA, N.Y., Nov 17 (Reuters) - The United States cannot rely on faster economic growth alone to fix its budget deficit problems, Federal Reserve Board Governor Edward Gramlich said on Wednesday.

"The Congressional Budget office has been over this and over this and the answer is no, we won't grow out of it. We're going to have to make some changes."

He said while the deficit is not as high as a proportion of gross domestic product as it was in the 1980s, "I think in many ways the situation is more dangerous than it was then."

The dangers lie in the readiness of other countries to finance U.S. deficits, which can lend a false sense of security...

----(from url)----

"...dangerous..." and "... false sense of security..."

Not words to be used or taken lightly.

As a person of free will and not under the care of another, you can either look up at the grey clouds and take protective action, or, just as certainly, you can opt to take no action and get soaked.

The choice is yours. Choose gold.

R.
TownCrier
(11/17/2004; 20:33:40 MDT - Msg ID: 126496)
You've been duly cautioned about the grey skies
http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh41447_2004-11-17_22-01-51_n17212306_newsmlWASHINGTON, Nov 17 (Reuters) - ... U.S. officials have stuck to well-honed rhetoric backing a strong dollar, but markets increasingly suspect the Bush administration secretly welcomes the greenback's fall.

"Let me be clear: our policy is for a strong dollar. Our dollar policy remains unchanged because a strong dollar is in both the national and international interest," U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow said on Wednesday in remarks prepared for delivery in London.

His words failed to stem fresh losses in the dollar, which saw it hit a record low against the euro and a seven-month low against the yen.

Analysts say the repetitive strong-dollar refrain has lost its punch. "It's so obviously not what anybody believes," said Roger Kubarych, senior economist adviser at HVB Bank.

Still, some economists think the administration is loath to openly shift rhetorical gears out of concern the dollar's so-far-orderly drop could get out of hand.

"They continue to spout the strong-dollar mantra simply because they're worried that if they discard it they'll get a faster rate of decline than they'd like," said Morris Goldstein of the Institute for International Economics.

Europe and the United States will likely stake out opposing views this weekend when Snow and other finance ministers from the Group of 20 rich and emerging countries gather in Berlin.

Snow said on Wednesday he was willing to hear Europe out, but suggested he felt little sympathy and would look coolly on any effort to block the dollar's fall.

"I always listen carefully," he said, answering questions after his London remarks. "I think the history of efforts to impose non-market valuations of currencies is at best non-rewarding and checkered."

Kubarych said Snow essentially told countries that turn to currency intervention "You guys don't know what you're doing."

"We have the U.S. basically using sarcasm rather than policy statements. The policy statements stay the same, but the sarcasm comes through more strongly," he said.

----(from url)----

Have the good sense to come in out of the rain. Choose a golden umbrella.

R.
Boilermaker
(11/17/2004; 20:38:50 MDT - Msg ID: 126497)
Ned's take on the ETF
Ned, You may be right that the ETF product is designed for the unwashed masses who have no experience with gold and that they will be attracted by the simplicity of the "ownership" mechanism. BUT, Don't you think the long awaited introduction of this product is being timed to deflect potential gold demand into a paper product? We are facing what appears to be an imminent breakout of gold. American investors go for "hot" sectors and the ETF will deflect potential physical gold demand into the "friendly" hands of the banking fraternity.

When you say that the prospectus is no more scary than any other IPO I would challenge you to explain why this fund will not even keep possession of, protect and take responsibility for the gold entrusted to it. This fact alone is the feature of the plan that makes it no more than a chain letter. As Ari and the prospectus explained the gold "entrusted" to this fund will be recycled into the market within 24 hours or less.

A soaring gold price in the absence of this fund would force at least serious investors to go directly to physical ownership. For those who still prefer a fund type holding why wouldn't the WGC come up with a fund that would at least hold the stuff and have it audited on a regular basis? I think most of us know the answer to that. This is another diversionary scheme designed to keep gold out of the public's hands.
Boilermaker
(11/17/2004; 20:41:00 MDT - Msg ID: 126498)
Sorry Ned, mean't to direct the previous post to Noble
Noble
Ned
(11/17/2004; 21:49:25 MDT - Msg ID: 126500)
Thanks Chally!
Printed off the max from your site, 229 months I believe back to Nov. 1985.

Draw my own conclusions? Simple. Gold is NOT under any magnificent manipulation. I'm sure there is day-to-day management but gold is internationally traded. How can it REALLY be manipulated right around the globe?

Let's start at Nov. 85, DX at a startling 130, gold very low. DX goes into a 4 year fall from 130 to 85. Gold rises from 300 in late '85 to $500 in late'87/early '88. DX bounces and hovers around 90 from '88 to '97, gold is in that fixated state between 350 and $400 for about 8 years. DX springs to life in late '96, gold falls late '96, DX rises to 120 by 2001, gold to $250 in 2001 and then we reverse. DX falls from peak of 120 to 85, gold rises from 250 to 430.

IT IS ALL A PERFECT MATCH !!

Now here's the catch! Checking the DX all time low in the fall of 1992 of 78.43 we have to watch our present day dollar to see where it goes. There is support at 82 and 80, perhaps where Sinclair talks of 470/480 and then $529. We break 80 and then there's one brief stop at this 78.43. After that gold goes 4 digit.

So pin a 229 month POG and a 229 month DX to the wall and watch the fun. This is going get scarier than a barrel of cats going over Niagara Falls.

Man...I wish we could get a DX chart back to '78!

Thanks again Chally!

http://www.britefutures.com/BFCharts/BFPrintMonthly.asp
Dollar Bill
(11/17/2004; 22:20:53 MDT - Msg ID: 126501)
.,.
Federal Reserves, On economic issues, You have found a terrific source of accurate views.
Your news sources are not as worthy. I suggest you review your news sources and change them completely.
2023
(11/17/2004; 23:23:15 MDT - Msg ID: 126502)
Snow's comments
Good evening all. I know this is old news by now but I wanted another laugh at John Snow's talk of a strong dollar. The December contract for the US $ finished at 83.34 today.

06:30 Treasury Secretary Snow says strong dollar is in global interest. Speaking in London, Snow reiterates belief that forex values should be established by the forex markets. Snow says he believes Europe must grow faster to reduce U.S. budget deficits, and that the U.S. will continue to encourage foreign investment.

There was also this quote:
Nov. 17 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar fell to a record against the euro for the fourth time in two weeks and dropped versus the yen as U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow signaled he won't back any agreement to stem the currency's slide.

``The history of efforts to impose non-market valuations on currencies is at best unrewarding and checkered,'' Snow said in response to a question on whether he would support an agreement with Europeans to manage the pace of the dollar's decline. He made the comments after a speech in London.


Really glad I've got gold and silver.

dave

Gandalf the White
(11/17/2004; 23:55:31 MDT - Msg ID: 126503)
Look at this Sir 2023 !
http://charts-d.quote.com:443/1002980432830?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=DX00Y∬erval=10&Ht=600&Wd=800&Display=2&Study=MA&Param1=13&Param2=0&Param3=&FontSize=10IF you liked the US$ at yesterday's low of 83.34 ---- YOU SHOULD LOVE TODAY's starting effort down to 83.17 !!!
Look at the LINK.
DIVE, DIVE, DIVE !!!
The YELLOW is going to shine !
<;-)
Druid
(11/18/2004; 00:00:46 MDT - Msg ID: 126504)
Update on the long-term Dollar bear
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_03/milhouse021603.html@Ned

Druid: Ned, the URL provides a pretty good chart reflecting a longer set of data. There appears to be somewhat of an anomaly in the yrs. 79-80 DX/Gold price relationship relative to your working theory. If gold isn't "managed" or "manipulated" then why is the current gold price not substantially higher today, in that, the DX Index is well below 90. I believe 79-81 is when gold peaked. TIA.

2023
(11/18/2004; 00:15:20 MDT - Msg ID: 126505)
Thanks Gandalf the White
Great looking chart sir. Thank you. It's getting late ... off to catch some ZZZZZ. Will check in tomorrow eveing for all the day's action.

Glad I started accumulating AU and AG in 1999!
dave
Topaz
(11/18/2004; 02:32:16 MDT - Msg ID: 126506)
Gold/Dollar etc.
http://www.futuresource.com/charts/micro.jsp?s=GC1%21&s=DX1%21&s=TYXY&s=CL1%21&s=&s=&s=&s=&p=D&v=15&b=LINE&d=LOWI don't know for how much longer Mr Snow can keep up the "strong dollar" rhetoric without bursting into laughter and he's surely grinning like a cheshire Cat at present.
Imo he's right...the Dollar IS still strong - although the Cash component is/has dropped, demand for BULK Dollars continues apace and Oil has taken a decided turn for the better recently.
Whats more, this lower Cash Dollar might, MIGHT! even create a little INflation to forestall the enevitable ...big "might" tho!
goldthumb
(11/18/2004; 03:45:26 MDT - Msg ID: 126507)
gold stox vs the Dow&S&P
If the stock markets get hammered,how will the pm stocks react?
Ned
(11/18/2004; 04:47:55 MDT - Msg ID: 126508)
Druid
Thanks for the chart.

I don't know about the '79/90 frame. Perhaps the fall alone of the DX from 100 to 90 was enough to scare the 'bejumpins' out of everyone. The other concern is we were in a moderately different inflation climate in that era as well.

I sat awake for a long time last night thinking about my statements about the 'Exact' inverse correlation between the DX and POG from Nov. 1985 to today and one thing does bother me about this theory. Although the DX does move up and down through an approximate range of 80 to 120 many times, and gold seems to approximate the same inverse moves, what about the effects of good, old fashioned inflation?

In 1987 gold peaked at $500, let's call it. Well $500 in 1987 sure ain't $500 in 2004. I don't know if 'prices' have doubled but lets say it's at leat half again, so does that imply that the DX of 85 in 1987 means DX in 2004 is POG $750?

I've got myself twisted in a knot! Help!

TIA
Clink!
(11/18/2004; 09:24:26 MDT - Msg ID: 126509)
Ah ! I like a good theory !
http://www.ess.ucla.edu/faculty/sornette/prediction/index.asp#predictionAll forms of analysis have their drawbacks. Fundamental analysis can indicate why certain trends are plausible, but cannot tell that a market is going to do something seemingly bizarre (actually, this could also be explained by not knowing all the fundamentals)or quantify the trend scope in terms of magnitude or time. TA always reminds me of trying to drive looking exclusively out of the rear window, knowing when you are getting close to the edge of the pavement but with no knowledge of intersections. Predictive analysis is where you try to find a best-fit curve to historical data and try to use this to predict where things might go. Sornette (a geophysics professor) has been mentioned here before, and this is the latest update. A number of commentators have been somewhat bemused to explain why, all of a sudden, the US stockmarket has decided to break out of its down-trending channel, despite there being no change in the fundamentals of the economy, at least not positive ones. And whatever you may think of the elections, this started before then. It turns out however, that, measured in Euros (or gold), the predictive curve is still perfectly intact. Now what the heck is with that ? I suspect currency hedging somewhere in all this, but am at a loss to explain it - any takers ?
Rimh
(11/18/2004; 10:29:13 MDT - Msg ID: 126510)
Is this the "Big Correction"?
...or just some profit taking before the power rally? Perhaps they will try to take it down another step today and/or tomorrow and Monday in advance of the options expiry (next Tuesday, I believe, correct me if I'm wrong) so they don't have to pay up. But insiders must be getting wise to the tactics used and the buy side must have a plan. Any thoughts on the timing and the significance of this correction?

TownCrier
(11/18/2004; 10:33:21 MDT - Msg ID: 126511)
For me, this statement by Lipper's Michael Porter nicely sums up the new ETF
"I expect this to be a blockbuster, because a lot of institutional investors who might not have been mandated to own gold other than mining stocks will finally be able to get directly involved in the gold market."

However, I would tend to question his lax definition of the term "directly" as used in the statement above. It seems to me that the term "indirectly" would have been more befitting the circumstances being described for investors who become nothing more directly involved than as noncustodial shareholders in a bullion fund structured around gold that they can never lay hands on.

When it comes to gaining the full assortment of financial and security benefits provided by gold, only ownership of the metal conveys the privilege. "Good as gold" applies only to the yellow metal. Any artificial substitute, even under the best of conditions, can only ever be "almost as good as gold", with each financially engineered facility having its own Achilles' heel that's sometimes its entire torso.

But not to overlook the realities of the day, as I said yesterday and echoed today by Porter, it is a fact that lots of potentially gold-seeking dollars are currently tied up in various institutional pension funds that have been blocked from direct gold investment and ownership. It is especially for that category of investment funds that the gold ETF should be seen as a welcome addition on the financial scene -- to tap into any pools of demand among U.S. investors hitherto unprepared or ill-equipped to invest in and own gold directly. Future satisfaction is yet to be determined, but then again, we're talking about funds that had limited alternatives to begin with, so having this option for them is almost certainly better than not.

Speaking of which, CBS.MW reported the following today.
-----
HEADLINE: Gold ETF blows through 2.3 mln share IPO

BOSTON (CBS.MW) -- In an hour and a half of trading on its first day, StreetTracks Gold Shares traded over 2.7 million shares, more than its scheduled initial public offering.

"This one is going to go gangbusters," said Jim Wiandt, editor of the Journal of Indexes.

"It opens up a new asset class to investors," he added. "And arguably, this could completely tilt the gold market and have macro-economic consequences."

...an ETF consultant believes these products could gather $2 billion in assets in the next six months...

"There is certainly retail demand, but one interesting aspect of this story is that many institutional players had before been restricted from either holding gold directly," added Wiandt.

Both ETFs [one sponsored by WGC, the othe by Barclays] are designed to reflect the price of gold owned by the trust, less the expenses of the trust's operations.

The funds will pay their fees by selling off small amounts of gold bullion. In other words, the fractional amount of physical gold represented by each share will decrease over the life of the trust.... and expenses will be priced identically at 0.4 percent of assets.

The Bank of New York will be the trustee for both ETFs.
------

Wrapping up some statistical odds and ends, the 2.3 million share initial offering represents 7.15 tonnes, whereas the projected investment figure of $2 billion would, at today's prices, represent 141 tonnes. FWIW

Call USAGOLD-Centennial today and treat yourself to a product that has ALL the benefits of gold. Plus, you don't have to worry about the quantity of your physical account being trimmed by 0.4 percent per annum as seen with these ETFs.

Choose the assortment of diversification products that's right for you. Choose gold, and call USAGOLD-Centennial for a helpful and personalized consultation.

R.
Gandalf the White
(11/18/2004; 10:34:22 MDT - Msg ID: 126512)
WOWSERS -- Look at your tax Dollars at work !!
http://charts-d.quote.com:443/1002980432830?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=DX00Y∬erval=10&Ht=600&Wd=800&Display=2&Study=MA&Param1=13&Param2=0&Param3=&FontSize=10ESF in action !
<;-(
TownCrier
(11/18/2004; 10:49:44 MDT - Msg ID: 126513)
Correction question for Rimh
The current gold price is off just $4 from Wednesday's close, is higher than Tuesday's close, and is smack in the middle of its two-and-a-half-day trading range of $436 - $446. What are you seeing in your tea leaves that makes you call this little wiggle a "correction", let alone a "Big Correction"?

I suppose we'll know soon enough whether dollars or substance wins the day (week, month, year), so to speak.

R.
TownCrier
(11/18/2004; 11:21:45 MDT - Msg ID: 126514)
Federal Reserve intervenes, and how
With the market in overnight fed funds trading nicely in line with the FOMC's new policy target of 2 percent, the Fed's trading desk none the less deemed it appropriate to intervene in the open market this morning on several fronts.

Giving support to the near end of the yield curve, the Fed bought Treasury bills outright today, 'permamently' adding to the nation's money supply $1.251 billion in fresh money created in conjuction with this intervention. The range of targeted maturities was February - May 2005.

The Fed also created and injected an additional $12.75 billion in 'temporary' money today; $10 billion was added through 14-day repurchase agreements, and $2.75 via overnight repos.

Confidence in money, in the extreme, is no firmer than the ease with which it is newly created at the source, as is shown here.

Gold, on the other hand, is always hard to come by.

Which of the two do you feel provides a better platform for secure savings?

R.
ge
(11/18/2004; 12:10:24 MDT - Msg ID: 126515)
Argentina - China & Brazil - China deals
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/4018219.stm"China will invest nearly $20bn in Argentina over the next 10 years... In recent days, Mr Hu had said that China planned to invest $100bn in Latin America over the next decade."
TownCrier
(11/18/2004; 12:58:11 MDT - Msg ID: 126516)
Trends, and the momentum behind them
http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh59016_2004-11-18_19-04-02_n18478175_newsmlNEW YORK, Nov 18 (Reuters) -
...With a current account gap equivalent to roughly 6 percent of its gross domestic product, the United States must attract an estimated $3 billion in capital daily to finance that shortfall or risk a deeper economic downturn.

"Now that markets are trending and no longer consolidating, the potential to earn what they call 'alpha' (pure return) has increased and so hedge funds are heavily positioned in currencies," said Richard Franulovich, senior currency strategist at Westpac Banking Corp....

Most hedge funds had posted losses in the past few months, bruised by a currency market that traded in narrow ranges.

"But as soon as the euro broke (above) $1.2450, -- that was the level that kept the euro on the topside for four to five months -- we had a lot of pent-up demand to get on board the (dollar) downtrend," Franulovich added.

Most hedge funds do not foresee any pause in the dollar's downtrend.

"The (dollar) downtrend will definitely continue," said John Taylor, chairman of FX Concepts in New York, a currency hedge fund that manages an estimated $11.6 billion in assets.

"The current account deficit will still take the top page and if that is compounded by a weakening in U.S. growth, then the dollar's in a terrible spot because the Federal Reserve won't be able to raise interest rates," Taylor said.

"It's a trending market, and you'd have to be a brave man to stand in front of that," said Westpac's Franulovich.

-----(from url)----

Any look at the charts shows that gold is among the clearly trending items (up). And when it comes to gold coins and bullion, it doesn't take bravery to stand in front of, behind, beside, or on top of it. It only takes a normal allotment of good wholesome common sense.

In fancy, if potatoes had pockets, they, too, would probably be in line to buy gold coins... because as we all know, potatoes with their many eyes see a lot more clearly than many typical investors do. And yes, a potato has at least as much sense.

Anyway, gold rising on fundamentals is a good thing. And fundamentals, coupled with a clear trend, is an unbeatably positive combination in today's investment world.

R.
Noble1
(11/18/2004; 13:10:41 MDT - Msg ID: 126517)
Boilermaker-ETF

Greetings Sir Boilermaker,

To answer your first question, no, I do not think that the timing of this product has been designed to deflect potential gold demand into a paper product. I don't think the fiat PTB are particularly thrilled with it's arrival. I think new demand for PG will be created as a result because almost all the gold held by the custodian will be held as allocated gold and will be unavailable for trading, leasing, or lending.

I like the fact that neither the sponsor, nor the trustee, nor the marketing agent will be responsible for securing the PG. It is structured as it should be. The storage and safekeeping shall be the responsibility of a custodian. Most of the good delivery bars hoarded by investors and nations is held this way. There is already a proven system in place to manage this.

Please refer me to Ari's post and the page(s) in the prospectus that explain how the "gold 'entrusted' to this fund will be recycled into the market within 24 hours or less." I missed it and would be interested in evaluating how that is accomplished see if we can figure out what it means.

I do believe there are provisions to visit and audit the PG held by the custodian. See pages 47 and 48 regarding access to the PG by the trustee and it's independant auditors.

Physical ownership is not an option for some. I see this as a product that will open up gold investment to them and remove physical gold from the leasing/lending market.

Remember:

The pleasure of gold is obvious. It will contunue to be valued for the foreseeable future.

Noble1
TownCrier
(11/18/2004; 13:24:31 MDT - Msg ID: 126518)
WGC's streetTRACKS Gold Shares vs. FOA's goldTRAIL Gold Metal
http://www.usagold.com/goldtrail/archives/goldtrailone.html
The choice, as always, is yours. Hike wisely.

R.
TownCrier
(11/18/2004; 14:39:20 MDT - Msg ID: 126519)
Gateway
Noble1, I think we have a similar intuition on these new ETFs. First, that they offer an avenue for certain funds that were previously incapable of being channelled into something goldish, and second, that among the uninitiated masses of typical investors, these funds will provide an elevated market profile and serve as a familiar gateway to introduce them to the notion of investing in things golden.

If there is a downside, it is that there is enough wiggle room among bullion banking custodians to play accounting games with what should otherwise be allocated bullion accounts, or to the same end, if the smooth passage of time gives rise to seemingly agreeable modifications wherein the fund's strictly allocated accounts (with the 0.4 annual fee) are replaced by UNalloacated accounts, sans fee. It's a classic progression that recalls the earliest days of goldsmiths, storage, and the subsequent rise of banking and advent of modern money as a purely nonphysical unit of account.

Truly a fascinating field.

R.
Rimh
(11/18/2004; 14:46:22 MDT - Msg ID: 126520)
Re: Towncrier
Thanks for the reply; it was mostly a tongue-in-cheek comment because there had apparently been some mainstream discussion of another 'correction' coming. I haven't seen the exuberance level in this move rise to previous heights, so I don't expect to see the big sell-off. The options expiry might be a reason to try and run it down, but as I tried to express earlier, I think the broader market is getting wiser.

The increasing downward talk for the dollar is also creating the atmosphere for continuously improved gold prices. Now any rises in the dollar are probably being treated as 'better-than-average selling opportunities', and nothing more. As Gandalf noted, 'look at your tax dollars at work'..., and how far did it get them, really?
spotlight
(11/18/2004; 15:05:55 MDT - Msg ID: 126521)
ETF
Town Crier
Question:

Dow Jones reported Friday Nov. 12th. that the gold trust offering was estimated to weigh in around $100 million.

How could gold decline if the fund had to purchase that much gold?
Great Albino Bat
(11/18/2004; 15:06:32 MDT - Msg ID: 126522)
Argentinian taxi driver's opinion of China Deal...

As all of you know, the taxi driver opinion in any given country is a faithful reflection of national attitudes. Or some people think it is, anyway.

Argentinian taxi driver in Buenos Aires, on China Deal:

"The thieves in government will rake off millions for themselves out of this deal. Not an honest man among them.

"The Chiniese are going to buy all our meat and prices will go up five times, for us Argentinians."

Sure. China is unloading dollars on Latin America - "China set to spend $100 bil in L.A." - and that only drives up prices, or allows more imports from China which puts more local businesses out of business. "You take the dollars, now you're IT!" Funny game!

The GAB
TownCrier
(11/18/2004; 15:35:38 MDT - Msg ID: 126523)
Spotlight, price action
Consider that that each 10,000 oz allocation of gold had to be secured prior to the "IPO" of the corresponding block of 100,000 shares. So, with respect to the 2.3 million shares put forth in today's initial offering, you can figure that the 7.15 tonnes represented had already been brought into the required custodial arrangements.

That is to say, today's ETF share-swapping action on the NYSE had no direct impact on the fundamental supply/demand and pricing action for gold. However, at such time as the decision is made to add and offer new outstanding shares for the fund, then to do so more gold would have to be lined up for the custodial accounts.

In essence, you have every reason to get that traditional market effect of "buy the rumor, sell the news" at any such time as a new share offering become a done deal.

Does that jive with you?

(Thanks for the explanation, rimh. Sarcasm and tongue-in-cheek comments are nearly impossible to detect in the written word unless you are intimately familiar with the personality of the writer, or else if the comments are way over the top that no other legitimate interpretation is possible.)

R.
Tevye
(11/18/2004; 15:35:45 MDT - Msg ID: 126524)
Ned, Druid: DX and Inflation

Recall simply what the DX is: an index from the dollar to a trade weighted basket of currencies (Euros, Swiss Francs, Yen, Pounds etc). Certainly to use it over time one must consider inflation; but not just Dollar inflation, you must consider inflation effects on each currency in the basket! If all the currencies inflate equally, one should expect the DX to remain constant. If faith is lost in the dollar disproportionally to the basket, then the DX retreats.

While the DX is helpful in tracking gold's short term value, the DX is still a moving standard. So, accounting for some inflation from 87 to 04, one can argue for $750 POG. There have been various attempts to take inflation into account and establish a long term POG value. Paul van Eeden recently published 4 gold price articles attempting this. Jim Sinclair talked of his desire to do it too. Bill Fox and other commentators also. Do your own due dilligence.

There is also the "men's suit" valuation model, which may be as good as any. Of course there are also differing productivity effects in mining and textiles over the years, plus supply and demand issues, (not to mention wool vs -yuch- polyester leisure suits) so again we have moving standards. For myself, I noted some time ago that I could get a weeks groceries for 2 for roughly the same dollars that I could get 1/4 ounce of gold. I'll let you decide if I eat well or not. ;^)

Gold. Its Tradition!
Tevye
USAGOLD Daily Market Report
(11/18/2004; 16:17:09 MDT - Msg ID: 126525)
Page Update!
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Daily Gold Market Report has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.

Thursday market excerpts

"The metals as a whole are overbought and deserving of some consolidation," said Peter Grandich, editor of the Grandich Letter, an investment advisory publication. "The G-20 meeting ... is a good excuse for currency traders to take a breather and for the U.S. dollar to bounce a little from a very oversold condition," he said.

The Group of 20 financial policy makers will gather Friday and Saturday. Foreign exchange rates are expected to be one of the topics discussed at the meetings in Berlin.

Against this backdrop, Comex December gold closed at $442.90, down $2.20.

The first gold bullion-backed exchange-traded fund began trading on New York Stock Exchange on Thursday. Shares of the gold ETF last traded down 0.3 percent to $44.32.

"Gold ETFs, validated by trading on the NYSE, will revolutionize the gold market," said Ned Schmidt, editor of the Value View Gold Report.

"Investors will be able to own gold with the click of the mouse, rather than the cumbersome[wha?? -- call USAGOLD-Centennial to experience how easy it can be] physical delivery system [and] investment advisers will no longer have a viable excuse for not having gold in a client's portfolio," he said.

Over time, "ETFs will result in an extremely large increase in the demand for gold simply because of the additional liquidity and flexibility," Schmidt said.

The "easy-to-use vehicle for gold investment has the potential to open up huge, previously untapped sources of gold demand from both retail and institutional investors," said Brien Lundin, editor of Gold Newsletter.

But "the fund's effect will be seen over the long term, as buying demand impacts the supply/demand dynamic for gold, and underpins the fundamental forces that are already acting to lift the gold price," he said.

"The fund's value will be determined solely by the gold price[ and] the price of gold, over the longer term, will be influenced to some degree by the volume of funds flowing into the gold ETF," he explained.

Commenting on the launch of the ETF, Erik Gebhard, an analyst at Altavest Worldwide Trading, said gold as an investment vehicle is now "apt to gain credibility among Wall Street."

-----(see url for access to full news, 24-hr int'l newswire, price charts)---
TownCrier
(11/18/2004; 16:28:05 MDT - Msg ID: 126526)
Just How Precious Will Gold Get? Demand is high, supply is scarce, and a weak greenback is hoisting its price
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/04_47/b3909141_mz020.htmFINANCE -- Gold is finally getting some respect. Four years ago, when it began a steady upward march, only the hardiest gold bug believed in the glittery metal. But now, after a 75% climb since early 2001, gold is topping $435 an ounce, a level not seen since 1988, and the naysayers have gone to ground. "We're in a secular bull market in commodities," says Frank E. Holmes, chief executive of U.S. Global Investors Inc.

The fever is so intense that new competitors are vying to grab business from New York and London, traditional centers of the gold trade....

Certainly, the stars seem aligned for gold. For one, the Bush Administration apparently doesn't mind a steady decline in the dollar to goose U.S. exports. ... Since early 2002, the greenback has fallen 25% against a basket of other currencies, vs. a 56% rise in gold.

In a market dominated by investors and central banks, an often-forgotten factor is demand by consumers and manufacturers. Just as with many other commodities, the rise of Asia is boosting gold prices as everyone from India's jewelry-bedecked brides to makers of computers and DVDs in China clamor for the metal.

Scarcity is driving prices higher still....

---(from url)----

As gold is only beginning to work its way back into mainstream western thought through articles like this, it is fair to say that true "gold fever" hasn't even begun to manifest itself yet in the market. Gold remains, in large part, off the radar screens. Buy while it's cheap with your still abnormally strong dollars.

R.
Druid
(11/18/2004; 16:42:55 MDT - Msg ID: 126527)
Gold ETF
Druid: I'm sure it's my shortcomings but I'm still a little dazed about all the excitement about, yet, another paper derivative. Its price is a function of the futures price that is a function of the printing press.

All the legalese and complexity about this latest jewel is, as always with these paper instruments, designed to obscure meaning and understanding while attempting to create value where it doesn't exist. I suppose this new alchemy will do its job in creating a real demand for perceived value.

As an experiment, the "New Economy" paradigm and absurd overall NASDAQ valuation provided all the real time data about how far, deep and wide a perceived wealth effect engulfed the masses. If I'm not mistaken didn't CISCO approach a TRILLION dollar market cap? This is just one company friends, there's room for plenty more given the right marketing and promotion.

I guess they're beginning to ramp Act II of this experiment in a different sector bringing in those investors left from the last chase to make this run. They'll need to ramp the process for manufacturing these new paper instruments so that they're in place to capture "Big Float" as he makes his way back from the ongoing dollar devaluation that is taking place.

For those bugs who understand the game and make the big score and then convert it into something of "REAL" value, I applaud you, for those of you who are still in the learning process, good luck.
TownCrier
(11/18/2004; 16:57:02 MDT - Msg ID: 126528)
Gold price -- bit o' history... infl. adj. prev. high equivalent to $1,900 today
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=story_19-11-2004_pg5_2
"The two oil shocks of 1973 and 1979 sparked double-digit inflation in the U.S., triggering a flight to gold that pushed prices to a peak of $850 in January 1980. In 2003 dollars, that would be equivalent to $1,900/oz � around four times gold's current price."

And as we all know, the official measures of inflation don't quite seem to jive with the higher true rate of inflation we all see reflected in real-world prices. How much higher, then, might this previously-visited benchmark actually be in a proper light?

R.
TownCrier
(11/18/2004; 17:33:18 MDT - Msg ID: 126529)
DJ FOCUS: Trade Confident Of Gold Hitting US$450/Oz Soon
http://www.futuresource.com/news/story.jsp?i=i4511580452066230336SYDNEY (Dow Jones)--After breaking above US$445 a troy ounce Wednesday for
the first time since July of 1988, gold is poised for further gains in the
near to medium term, Asian traders said Thursday.

Notwithstanding lingering caution in some circles, those contacted by Dow
Jones Newswires say it is principally a question of when, not if, a 16-and-a-
half year high is established above US$450/oz.

"Very, very soon," answered one senior Sydney trader, with a major global
bank, when asked when gold might breach the psychologically significant mark.

"With the market already talking about the dollar falling to US$1.32
against the euro and Y103.40 to the yen, gold should easily breach
US$450/oz," Rothschild Australia's Martin Mayne said in a note to clients.

Pullback Possible, But Unlikely To Be Severe

The pace at which gold has soared since the beginning of September, with
only small hiccups in mid-October and early November, has left many traders
and analysts expecting, or outright hoping for, a modest pullback to allow
the yellow metal to consolidate its gains.

"The obvious risk is for a correction," Rothschild's Mayne said. "The
market is already massively long on gold, and with year-end position squaring
a distinct possibility, it would not take much for a modest correction in the
price to trigger stop loss selling."

But like others, he agreed that a major retreat is unlikely in the near
term.

"...any correction in the price will be seen as a buying opportunity
as dealers expect the dollar to keep sliding..."

Standard Bank London's Chu said the U.S. dollar's trajectory, particularly
against the euro, would dictate the scope of any correction.

But he too believes a sharp decline is unlikely.

"If (gold) really wants to go up a bit further, I think it has to retreat
back to the US$437-US$438/oz level first," he said.

This is likely to occur if and when foreign exchange speculators take
profits on the U.S. dollar's recent woes, which Chu said could bring the euro
back to US$1.28 without doing significant harm to gold.

----(from url)----

Increasingly, banks are less shy about voicing more positive outlooks for gold. And unless you are a ragingly pre-mature contrarian, this is a good sign.

R.
TownCrier
(11/18/2004; 18:10:59 MDT - Msg ID: 126530)
Peter Brimelow, Edwin S. Rubenstein answer: What gives with gold -- long term?
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/print_story.asp?print=1&guid={F4CC3B13-0DA1-472D-858B-0D249E8FE994}&siteid=mktwNEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- The Bush Bounce continues in the stock market, but gold goes up, too. What gives?

Wednesday night, Dow Theory Letters' veteran editor Richard Russell seemed almost on the point of abandoning his long-held bearishness on stocks.

His (grudging) conclusion: "Is the stock market bubble back? Feels to me as though it is. Wild prices going for stocks that offer nothing in the way of dividends, but with all this liquidity, what's a body to do but buy, buy, and well -- buy."

But Russell has also been relentlessly, if patiently, bullish on gold. And it's paid off for him.

He said, "Gold and gold shares continue higher -- early in their second phase bull market rise. You've ridden the bull so far -- stay on his back even though he'll try his best to shake you off."

Russell's explanation for the two rallies: "Liquidity, liquidity, liquidity."

Recently, we looked at the long-run stock market. We concluded that the market was still quite high by historical standards -- the excesses of the 1990s had not been worked off.

They're even less worked off now!

But we'll see.

Now we look at gold over the long term...

[charts, figures, explanations]

[Regarding gold as a store of value on a constant dollar chart...] What drove the gold price down in [inflation adjusted dollars during] the mid-20th century, of course, was that Washington fixed its price in U.S. dollar terms. [i.e., the $35/oz gold standard]

Arguably, the 1980 rebound to $4.26 (over $800 in nominal terms) was an overshoot reaction.... But gold is still far below its 1980 recent peak..... And this recent history may matter more, for two reasons.

First, there is a serious gold bug argument that Central Bank selling has driven gold down since 1990 -- in effect fixing its price, arguably unsustainably, as in the mid-20th century.

If so, an overshot reaction is possible. Replicating 1980's peak could roughly triple gold's price in today's dollars.

Second, the financial history of the 20th century is quite discontinuous with that of the 19th century. Since the advent of the Federal Reserve, inflation has been vastly greater than previously, and the course of yields on bonds and bills fundamentally altered.

For now, the point is that, on the evidence of these charts, gold is hardly overvalued.

---(see url for full article, charts)---

Hardly overvalued. One might even venture the notion that it is indeed very much UNDERvalued, all things considered. Compared with 1980, there is now a vastly larger overhang of dollar-debt held in international central banking reserves, whereas gold tonnage has been held very nearly constant during this period. Furthermore, an exodus from a dollar-standard was blocked back then by lack of any realistic alternative. The way forward from the present time, however, has been paved by a suitable euro-styled numeraire for transactional accounting and mark-to-market gold as principle reserves holdings.

Amen. This is one ride you do not want to miss. Once in a lifetime falls short of the mark. Try, once in the history of the world.

R.
mas
(11/18/2004; 18:38:54 MDT - Msg ID: 126531)
EU view(s)?
Europe wants action from US on weak dollar.

Action not words - that is what the euro zone finance ministers meeting in Brussels are demanding from the US over the weak dollar. America has repeatedly said it supports a strong dollar, but is not taking action to achieve that by cutting its budget and trade deficits. Chairing the meeting, Dutch Finance Minister Gerrit Zalm repeated the standard euro zone line.

He said: "As far as the exchange rate is concerned, ministers agreed that excess volatility and disorderly movements in exchange rates are undesirable for economic growth and in this context the recent sharp moves of exchange rates are unwelcome."

Others were blunter. Luxembourg's Jean-Claude Juncker said "We want the US to APPLY the policy of the strong dollar." The ministers say an exchange rate imbalance risks the euro zone's economic recovery, which is not good for the US either. They will get a chance to tell US Treasury Secretary John Snow that - face to face - when they all gather in Berlin later this week for another economic conference.

from: euronews.com
Noble1
(11/18/2004; 18:59:10 MDT - Msg ID: 126532)
Towncrier-ETF post #126519

I agree. I particularly don't like the limited liabilty of the custodians to the subcustodians or their subcustodians (see page 47). Too many custodians allowed.

Remember:

Physical gold will always be heavy while paper gold may carry no weight.

Noble1
Liberty Head
(11/18/2004; 19:07:46 MDT - Msg ID: 126533)
Strong Dollar - Ha

There are many folks talking about strong dollars.
Just as in hell, there are many folks talking about ice water.
Guess what?

Best Wishes
Sundeck
(11/18/2004; 20:59:05 MDT - Msg ID: 126534)
China's Mr Hu - multilateral ambassador extraordinaire
While Mr Bush and his cronies have pulled the USA into a unilateral closet with real and imaginary terrorists on all sides (a position reinforced by appointment of Rice as Secretary of State) and an imploding dollar, China's Mr Hu is travelling widely and brokering/facilitating deals all over the world - Africa, Australia, Middle East, Europe, Russia, Canada and now Latin America.

This multilateral ambassadorship will lead to opening up of two-way trade between China and the rest of the world, thereby reducing the importance of the USA as China's primary destination for exports.

Meanwhile, at home, domestic consumption is a growing component of China's GDP, further reducing the importance of the USA as a destination for its manufactures. Thus, as the US dollar sinks and US-Americans are forcibly weaned off inexpensive imports from China, there will be other markets for China's wares.

Hopefully, this will all take place gradually, so that a sudden brake in the balance between growing supply and demand (involving China and the USA, in particular) will not send shockwaves through the World's economy.

Interesting times...

;-)

mikal
(11/18/2004; 21:23:30 MDT - Msg ID: 126535)
Chinese "long-term" outlook doing irreversible short-term damage to local U.S./world economies and people
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/ridley111804.htmlCHINA: Fahrenheit Oil & Gold
Bill Ridley - November 18, 2004
Recent actions and long-term planning of the communist police state in the age of "free-trade" have unexpected implications for oil and gold. I highly recommend this.
Liberty Head
(11/18/2004; 23:52:51 MDT - Msg ID: 126536)
The Funniest Two Words In Congress...

"Debt Limit"
Ah ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ah..........

"Fiscal responsibility"
Ah ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha
Oh it's hard to breath, I'm laughin so hard.
Ah ha ha ha ha ha............

Best Wishes
Goldendome
(11/19/2004; 00:05:15 MDT - Msg ID: 126537)
'Twas the death of the dollar

'Twas the death of the dollar and all through the land
Not a greenback was traded for more than a Rand.
The paper was shoveled with nary a care
With hopes that inflation would not soon be there.
My children sit quiet and await the sad tale
Of the day that the Dollar Standard had failed.
In the quaint days of old when money was good
We bought nothing with debt and saved as we should.
But Lord Father Keynes had preached to the crowd
That paper was good and honest and proud!
We've no need for metal like silver or gold
Such thinking and bias is foolish and old.
We'll print all we need and make not a fuss
The lessons of history apply not to us.
Reserve Notes were hailed as safe from the fate
That befell all nations both humble and great.
Then oceans of ink and forests of trees
Were forged into money by sovereign decrees.
The world emerged from her shackles of rust
The barbarous relics were tossed in the dust!
Dreaming we had beaten the liquidity trap
We all settled down for the Kondratieff nap.
When straight from the East there arose such a stink
The unmistakable scent of paper and ink.
We've seen these before, we sent them to you,
How terribly rude to refuse I.O.U.s!
With credit for you and credit for me
There's no cause to work for the things that we need.
Our friends in the East are happy to loan
Their savings back West, but it's us they shall own.
Their factories were built by the sweat of the brow
And their people were fed from the fruit of the plow.
The things that we bought they shipped them all here
Prices are low, so there's nothing to fear!
Our presses of print glowed white from the heat
Once cut loose from gold there is no retreat.
So the banks of the world stacked them twenty feet high
Locked safe in their vaults away from the eye.
Its funny, you know, that they guard them with care
They sold out their gold to make room for them there.
Protected by buzzers and bells that alarm
Believing that this made them safe from all harm
While so far away to the debtors delight
A fresh batch just like them appeared in the night!
While in the short term the sad joke was on them
They planned and they plotted the payback of men.
They graciously smiled when we handed them more
Knowing full well they'd be back on our shore.
At first they bought Treasury Debt by the ton
It kept the game going; it's all in good fun!
But the more that they loaned the more they got back
Their grand plan had failed, it's time to attack!
We know what we'll do, we'll dump them en masse
We'll buy all the gold and the silver and brass.
Right at the mine with our briefcase of bills
We'll buy it all up then head for the hills.
Whatever is left we will dump on the floor
With metal in hand we'll need them no more.
I remember the fear in the pits on that day
The index had tumbled, all support went away.
She opened no bid and was down for the count
No one was buying in any amount.
The bottom had fallen below the last floor
The traders and hedgers all rushed for the door.
Where was the fabled Japanese boost
When the chickens aplenty had come home to roost?
Elliott's disciples who worshipped the waves
Were blinded by graphs and so they behaved
By dumping their gold when reading twin peaks
They regretted their choice at the end of the week!
A six-pack of Joes arose from the din
They wondered whatever had done the buck in?
With her intaglio portraits of leaders of yore
And shifty black ink that seemed green just before.
Its counterfeit proof was the Treasury song
It only requires that the world play along.
The sheeple did bleat with their handfuls of cash,
Shell-shocked and seeing their wealth was now trash.

---------------------------------
---------------------------------

As seen on another board--I did not write it--Author unknown.
spotlight
(11/19/2004; 03:08:14 MDT - Msg ID: 126538)
GLD
Towncrier
Thank you for your prompt reply.
I now understand that the gold to cover the shares issued by the fund had previously been purchased. It must also follow that share holders are now left to trade the shares among themselves. That being the case, buyers would be using the current price of one tenth of an ounce of gold to determine the realistic price, or value of the stocks shares.

If the above is true, how could a Bill gates or a Warren Buffett or large mutual fund who wishes to purchase gold in the multi billions of dollars do so?

I was of the impression that new purchasers/sellers of the fund would obligate the fund to purchase/Sell gold. Since that is not the case, what happens if there is an influx of buyers and no sellers? I realize that could cause a premium on the stock, but in the case of gold, it seems the premium would be limited by the availability of less expensive gold at market prices.



Noble1
(11/19/2004; 08:02:53 MDT - Msg ID: 126539)
Sir Spotlight-ETF (msg #126538)

I would imagine that the big boys would establish themselves as "authorized participants" and deal in the 100,000 share "baskets".

You answer your question "...what happens if there is an influx of buyers and no sellers?" in your next sentence. "...the premium would be limited by the availability of less expensive gold at market prices."

Aah, the arbitragers.

Remember:

"No other commodity enjoys as much universal acceptability and marketability as gold"-Hans F. Sennholz

Noble1

Noble1
(11/19/2004; 08:33:19 MDT - Msg ID: 126540)
POG

Interesting, short term (1,2,3 and 6 month) lease rates are all falling but 1 year rates are rising. Seems like they're trying to meet immediate demand to keep the POG in check but are not committing long term.

The Bank of France comes out with their announcent that they will be the sellers of 500-600 tons of gold under WAG-2. Expect more such announcements soon. These central bank announcements used to work. With today's non-response in yhe POG other CBs may get cold feet.

I'm sure they will pull out their big guns at the G20 meeting this weekend and attempt to quash this uprising. But they may find that the enemy has much more ammo (fiat) than they do (gold). Ironically they gave us the ammo.

Remember:

"...there seems to be a correlation between the intensity of official attacks on gold and the severity of monetary crisis." Hans F. Sennholz

Noble1
Cytek
(11/19/2004; 08:38:01 MDT - Msg ID: 126541)
U.S. stocks lose ground on concern over sliding dollar
Welcome, cytekpublishing [Sign Out] My Yahoo! View - Customize
Financial News
Enter symbol(s) BasicPerformanceReal-time MktDetailedChartResearchOptionsOrder Book Symbol Lookup







CBS MarketWatch
U.S. stocks lose ground on concern over sliding dollar
Friday November 19, 10:08 am ET
By Mark Cotton


NEW YORK (CBS.MW) - U.S. stocks lost ground Friday on increasing investor concern over the negative impact of a weakening dollar on the U.S. economy.
Federal Reserve chief Alan Greenspan's remarks that the large size of the U.S. current account deficit could reduce foreign investor appetite for acquiring dollar-denominated assets, did little to assuage those worries.

Cytek

I love the way the media paints the picture, one day they say stocks rise due to a falling dollar, today it's the reason they fall.

Boilermaker
(11/19/2004; 09:00:07 MDT - Msg ID: 126542)
ETF - Oh, Me of Little Faith - The Devil's in the Details
Sir Noble1,
You and Randy are certainly correct that this ETF is a marvelous vehicle for good honest folks to obtain gold "exposure" in their 401K's and IRA's and other investment portfolios. There is no doubt in my mind that this will stimulate gold demand and drive the price upwards. However, this grouchy old curmudgeon always seeks to find the evil that lurks in the hearts of men (especially bankers). My wife says I often reek of negativism. She's right.

My grouchiness and negativism are not stilled by the reading of the Prospectus. I copied some of the passages that give rise to my apprehension:

P 37
��..The ability of the Trustee to monitor the performance of the Custodian may be limited because under the Custody Agreements the Trustee may, only up to twice a year, visit the premises of the Custodian for the purpose of examining the Trust's gold and certain related records maintained by the Custodian. In addition, the Trustee has no right to visit the premises of any subcustodian for the purposes of examining the Trust's gold or any records maintained by the subcustodian, and no subcustodian is obligated to cooperate in any review the Trustee may wish to conduct of the facilities, procedures, records or creditworthiness of such subcustodian.

P 44
��.The Custodian does not have written custody agreements with the subcustodians it selects. The Custodian's selected subcustodians may appoint further subcustodians. These further subcustodians are not expected to have written custody agreements with the Custodian's subcustodians that selected them. The lack of such written contracts could affect the recourse of the Trust and the Custodian against any subcustodian in the event a subcustodian does not use due care in the safekeeping of the Trust's gold. See "Risk Factors � The ability of the Trustee or the Custodian to take legal action against subcustodians may be limited..."
"The Custodian is required to use reasonable care in selecting subcustodians, but otherwise has no responsibility in relation to the subcustodians appointed by it, and the Custodian is not responsible for their selection of further subcustodians. The Custodian does not undertake to monitor the performance by subcustodians of their custody functions or their selection of additional subcustodians. The Custodian is not responsible for the actions or inactions of subcustodians."
���The Custodian is obliged under the Allocated Bullion Account Agreement to use commercially reasonable efforts to obtain delivery of gold from those subcustodians appointed by it. However, the Custodian may not have the right to, and does not have the obligation to, seek recovery of the gold from any subcustodian appointed by a subcustodian.

P 45
��..The Custodian and the Trustee will not require any direct or indirect subcustodians to be insured or bonded with respect to their custodial activities. The Custodian will maintain insurance with regard to its business on such terms and conditions as it considers appropriate. The Trust will not be a beneficiary of any such insurance and does not have the ability to dictate the existence, nature or amount of the coverage. Therefore, Shareholders cannot be assured that the Custodian will maintain adequate insurance or any insurance with respect to the gold held by the Custodian on behalf of the Trust.

P 47
���Under the Allocated Bullion Account Agreement, the Custodian may select subcustodians to perform any of its duties, including holding gold for it. These subcustodians may in turn select other subcustodians to perform their duties, including holding gold for them, but the Custodian is not responsible for (and therefore has no liability in relation to) the selection of those other subcustodians. The Allocated Bullion Account Agreement requires the Custodian to use reasonable care in selecting any subcustodian and provides that, except for the Custodian's obligation to use commercially reasonable efforts to obtain delivery of gold held by subcustodians when necessary, the Custodian will not be liable for the acts or omissions, or for the solvency, of any subcustodian that it selects unless the selection of that subcustodian was made negligently or in bad faith. The subcustodians selected and used by the Custodian as of the date of this prospectus are: the Bank of England, The Bank of Nova Scotia (ScotiaMocatta), Deutsche Bank AG, JPMorgan Chase Bank, and UBS AG. The Allocated Bullion Account Agreement provides that the Custodian will notify the Trustee if it selects any additional subcustodians or stops using any subcustodian it has previously selected.

P 49
���.The Custodian may refuse to accept transfers of gold to the Trust Unallocated Account, amend the procedures for transferring gold to or from the Trust Unallocated Account or for the physical withdrawal of gold from the Trust Unallocated Account or the Trust Allocated Account or impose such additional procedures in relation to the transfer of gold to or from the Trust Unallocated Account as the Custodian may from time to time consider appropriate. The Custodian will notify the Trustee within a commercially reasonable time before the Custodian amends these procedures or imposes additional ones, and, in doing so, the Custodian will consider the Trustee's need to communicate any changes to Authorized Participants and others.

Comments;
My take on the above is that this gold will be scattered all over the world in allocated accounts that cannot be audited. Why does the Custodian, HSBC, want or need to have all these subcustodians, sub-subcustodians and so on? HSBC will receive compensation of 0.1% of the value of gold held by them. Why would they sub the gold to others who would presumably want similar compensation? A few hundred tons of gold could be contained in a vault the size of Lincoln Navigator. Surely HSBC could find that much space. This is where my nose smells evil. The names that pop up above as subcustodians such as JP Morgan, do not set my mind at ease.

Enough! My apologies for belaboring this point.
Noble1
(11/19/2004; 09:30:55 MDT - Msg ID: 126543)
Sir Boilermaker

Again, I agree (see post #126532).

Your discerning eye has spied the weakest link in this product as outlined on page 37.

Remember:

Alchemy has never succeeded in producing gold.

Noble1
J-Bullion
(11/19/2004; 09:35:52 MDT - Msg ID: 126544)
Ag
Is it just me? but someone sure doesn't want silver over $7.60 ounce before options expiration Tues.
ge
(11/19/2004; 09:39:36 MDT - Msg ID: 126545)
Barclay T. Leib on "Three Peaks and a Domed House" topping formation
http://www.sandspring.com/charts2004/cdj111704.htmlHe first mentioned the formation on January 14, 2000 while analyzing the Dow, so he has lots of credibility.
http://www.sandspring.com/articles/tp.html
Gandalf the White
(11/19/2004; 09:59:29 MDT - Msg ID: 126546)
WOWSERS ---Sir GE --- IS this also a DOMED HOUSE formation ?
http://charts-d.quote.com:443/1002980432830?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=DX00Y∬erval=10&Ht=600&Wd=800&Display=2&Study=MA&Param1=13&Param2=0&Param3=&FontSize=10ge (11/19/04; 09:39:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 126545)
Barclay T. Leib on "Three Peaks and a Domed House" topping formation
Topaz
(11/19/2004; 10:05:24 MDT - Msg ID: 126547)
alt currency Gold.
http://www.futuresource.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=GC&o=100/DX&a=D&z=610x300&d=LOW&b=LINE&st=The almost daily scale rejigging on this comparison chart shows Gold now in full support of the Dollar. (tempering the DX slide)
A quick check of Gold Currencies outside the Basket ... Au$ and Rand sees Gold in decline recently ... and goes a long way toward explaining lacklustre Goldstock performance of late.
We really need to see PoG consistently outperforming ALL currencies before "exuberance" becomes "rational" I believe ... for without same, PoG remains just another tool in the formidable Fiat arsenal!
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(11/19/2004; 10:45:34 MDT - Msg ID: 126548)
A risk-free request, helping you enter the gold market with grace and confidence.
http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html

Get a head start on the gold market!
Noble1
(11/19/2004; 10:48:41 MDT - Msg ID: 126549)
'Twas The Death Of The Dollar (msg. #126537)

Sir Goldendome,

Thanks for posting such a masterpiece of poetry. The author deserves credit. His name is J. Kent Willis

Remember:

"A study of economics usually reveals that the best time to buy anything is last year"-Marty Allen

This year will be last year next year.

Noble1

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(11/19/2004; 10:49:28 MDT - Msg ID: 126550)
The Fruit of Your Labor: Another day, another... depreciating dollar?
http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.html

Swiss gold francs
Harvest Time
You've toiled diligently and intelligently all season long
and now it's harvest time for your summer crop.

Every good farmer knows the task is not complete until the
fruits of his labor are fully picked and stored ahead of the winter.

Whatever it is that you may have sown,
we'll give you the power to reap GOLD.

1-800-869-5115
USAGOLD - Centennial has three decades of experience in the field

Great Albino Bat
(11/19/2004; 11:15:28 MDT - Msg ID: 126551)
Topaz - when will irrational exhuberance set in, for GOLD?
You wrote earlier:

"We really need to see PoG consistently outperforming ALL currencies before "exuberance" becomes "rational" I believe ... for without same, PoG remains just another tool in the formidable Fiat arsenal!"

As we are all aware, the finance ministers in Belgium (by the way, WHERE is Belgian?) are very upset with the falling dollar, as well they should be.

It seems to me, that these boys will soon attempt to push down the Euro itself. (Didn't Berlusconi himself just call for this?) When the Europeans get wind of this - that the Euro is in competition with the Dollar in a "free-fall" exercise - then it seems likely that they will wake up in due course, to the fact that they had better seek refuge in the "alternative currency" which is GOLD.

That's when gold is going to take off, around the world, and not just in Dollars. - Just my opinion, of course.

A comment to "mas" post 126531, yesterday:

Paraphrsing your words: "The euro zone finance ministers meeting in Brussels want the U.S. to show some ACTION regarding the free-falling Dollar."

Problem is; What action do you take to restore the barn, after the barn has burnt down? Answer: there's no action to take - the barn is gone! These men in suits can be so amusing!

A comment for "teyve" post 126524, yesterday:

Regarding the DX and Inflation, and Gold's price.

Can anyone mention a noted economist that became rich, and died rich?

Von Mises wrote a book "Theory and History" in which he dealt with the nature of Economics. In his view - which I accept until I find another that is more satsifactory - is that Economics and History are two very separate sciences.

Economics according to Mises, is "a priori". Its statements are "apodictic" - I love that word! - which means, they are incontrovertible, unarguable. They do not originate in experience. No amount of data, of information, can give rise to an economic principle. All economic principles a deduced from one axiom: Man acts. All (true) economics derives from this fact which cannot be argued.

Mises points out that ALL statistics, all DATA, are part of History, not Economics. Our minds wrestle with data, we try to make sense of data and try to guess what the data means and where it is taking us. Data are useful - and men who become rich (I am speaking of those who become rich by honest means, of course)- we find are mostly men of action who have correct intuitions; we can say they are "astute investors" or "wise" investors. Mostly, they don't know a thing about Economics, at least consciously. They have a knack for correct hunches.

History - statistics (which are all arbitrarily constructed by the statistician, as he selects what HE thinks is important) can be useful, but statistics cannot make Economics. That would be "induction", and Economics is a deductive science, not an inductive science as physics.

GRAPHS are all History. They show something about what has happened. But, they can't help us guess what is coming next, because humans change their views, their values, and alter their former behavior. All this talk of "teacups" and "domed houses" is illusion. We don't really know something, on the basis of graphs. We can use Economics to give us some idea of how humans are going to react, while we view graphs. But, Data do not validate Economic theory, nor can Data invalidate Economic theory.

Read: "Epistemological Problems of Economics" by Von Mises, for further confusion.

My hunch: gold will continue to go up for many years. FWIW!
And that's all we have to go on: hunches.

The GAB
ge
(11/19/2004; 11:58:41 MDT - Msg ID: 126552)
Sir Gandalf the White
O wizard! What shall we call it? Small topping formations within larger topping formations? :)

Best Regards,
Great Albino Bat
(11/19/2004; 12:07:37 MDT - Msg ID: 126553)
GE: "topping formations"....

Call it a topping formation, if it makes you feel better.

Be aware that giving a thing a name, is only a way of covering our ignorance of what it is and what it means.

Why not call it a "topping formation of a teacup and handle withing a domed house with pillared doors and four car garage?"

The GAB

Great Albino Bat
(11/19/2004; 12:10:39 MDT - Msg ID: 126554)
A Thought for the day.... or for the moment, anyway.

"The most efficient stealth weapon is an idea whose time has come."

The GAB
Belgian
(11/19/2004; 12:14:11 MDT - Msg ID: 126555)
@GAB
The ongoing G-20 show is the most hypocritical, public performance, one can imagine ! They all speak with double tongues. Simply because the final outcomes are already known by all the partners (partnerships) in this reunion.
>>> The dollar in its process of losing reserve status and the euro (and aligned) having its "mtm" goldreserves, ready.
Sohhhh simple.
That's WHY the G-20 show is NOT about the dollar and/or its imbedded deficits...but blablabla about GLOBAL "growth", where the different partners can lecture each other freely.
Stable (euro-styled) growth or further, debt-driven, dollar growth !?

Gold, to be marked to market, as the wealth-reserve, stands ready to replace the once mighty...detoriating dollar.

Happening, right in front of you.
Aristotle
(11/19/2004; 12:39:07 MDT - Msg ID: 126556)
Are you exposed?
Here's a good history lesson for everyone. Nixon, bless him, did his small part and unchained Gold from the dollar (or devalued the dollar, depending on how you want to look at it) back in August of 1971.

Yes, he did it, he surely did.

Without warning.

.
.

On a Sunday.

.
.
.
.
.
think about it
.
.
.
.

When it comes down to it, you are NOT going to be able to mitigate away your personal share in these problems with a few mouse-clicks and key-strokes from your comfy office chair in the middle of a work day!

I think that's enough said on that. You either get my point, or you're beyond reach.

Boilermaker... nice work. It's almost as if they've gone out of their way to ensure that the Gold's subCustodians are free of any obligation.
:)
Reminds me of a nifty little tale. Maybe I'll tell it, maybe I won't.

Belgian, good to see you, buddy.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle
YGM
(11/19/2004; 12:40:20 MDT - Msg ID: 126557)
Boilermaker....ETF prospectus
Can you supply a link to this paper???
Thnx....YGm
Boilermaker
(11/19/2004; 12:40:40 MDT - Msg ID: 126558)
Banque de France Gold Sale
http://www.forbes.com/business/services/feeds/ap/2004/11/19/ap1666207.htmlsnip;
French Finance Minister Nicolas Sarkozy and Bank of France Governor Christian Noyer have finalized discussions on the sale of a portion of France's gold reserves.

Noyer confirmed his intention to sell 500 to 600 tons of the 3,000 tons of gold kept in vaults underneath the Bank of France headquarters in Paris over the next five years, the Finance Ministry said in a statement Friday.

comment;
This sale noted earlier today by Noble1 was announced before Comex opened and in days past would have prcipitated a $10 POG smack down. We are surely entering a new era now that the $ has no clothes.

Good to see Sir Belgian back at the forum.
Boilermaker
(11/19/2004; 12:54:15 MDT - Msg ID: 126559)
YGM - ETF Prospectus Link
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1222333/000095013604003776/file001.htmReading this will keep you out of trouble for an evening. Cheers all and have a good weekend. ;>)
TownCrier
(11/19/2004; 13:36:03 MDT - Msg ID: 126560)
Gold climbs in dollars, climbs in euros
http://www.usagold.com/gold-price.htmlHas become a common sight, and expected, as gold has much catching up to do after years of asset suppression.

click refresh as needed to see current charts.

R.
teg296
(11/19/2004; 13:37:40 MDT - Msg ID: 126561)
historical Gold Lease Rates
Hi all, new to the board, but I am liking the discussions so far.

I was wondering where I could get historical data on the daily gold lease rates for 1975-1992. I am doing a gold price analysis and wanted to incorporate data before 1992. I already have post 1992 data. Any idea where to look?

LBMA.co.uk only goes back to 1996 sadly. Any help is appreciated.
Gandalf the White
(11/19/2004; 13:39:28 MDT - Msg ID: 126562)
WATCH for ANOTHER little Green "X" later today !!!
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=$GOLD,PWTBDANRBO[PA][D][F1!3!!!2!20]⪯f=GThe GOLD P&F Chart is looking good !
<;-)
TownCrier
(11/19/2004; 13:47:00 MDT - Msg ID: 126563)
The ABCs of Gold Investing
http://www.usagold.com/cpm/abcs.htmlDid you know that your purchase can be written off as a deductible investment expense when you file your taxes?

Just one more reason to take advantage of this discount offer and arm yourself with information.

R.
TownCrier
(11/19/2004; 13:54:16 MDT - Msg ID: 126564)
teg296
A sincere bidding of 'good luck' is all I can give you on that account, plus one extra word of advice:

Don't hold your breath.

If you ever do manage to locate and land the desired information, you will truly have cause to celebrate a remarkable achievement. I wish you every success in the endeavor.

R.
TownCrier
(11/19/2004; 14:08:24 MDT - Msg ID: 126565)
Silly-Quote-of-the-Day Award goes to...
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/print_story.asp?print=1&guid={9050B146-3C6F-4998-9A22-DFFC10D0C941}&siteid=yhooSAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- ........ With gold now trading in the "house of paper assets," investors will be "able to save themselves financially from the coming collapse of paper equities," said Ned Schmidt, editor of the Value View Gold Report.

----(from url)----

That's a little bit like saying "Because gasoline is available in a liquid form like water, it can be an effective tool to put out a tire fire".

When things are melting down, it's best to recognize fuel for what it is.

R.
Chally
(11/19/2004; 14:10:23 MDT - Msg ID: 126566)
GRAPHS....more than 'just' history, Bat.
GAB,

An interesting read, to be sure, but I think there's a bit more to it.

Graphs also read the psychology of the market crowd.You can argue that it's just more history and again be right. But to say,..."GRAPHS are all History. They show something about what has happened. But, they can't help us guess what is coming next, because humans change their views, their values, and alter their former behavior"...misses one important point.

Greed and fear drive the markets, and the balance of the mixture can only be formulated in so many ways. Chart 'patterns' repeat themselves over and over again, across all markets, validating that the same forces are at work whether its widgets or our most precious currency.

Because of this tendency, (IMHO) history and markets repeat themselves in at least SOMEWHAT predictable ways. Study the market 'mania's' of history..the proof is there. We're creatures of habit.

I also believe its got to be kept simple. Raw graphs, and simple trendlines, not a bunch of fabricated 'indicators' which add layers of error to the raw 'history'.

All that being said, I didn't enter gold because of a chart. There were fundamental reasons for my timing, and also a hunch that the time has come. Charts have helped me get a 'feel' for the reactions of my fellow Pavlovians though So far it's served me well.

Some day this too will end, and when I've a hunch that the last hog, dog, and frog are buying I'll gladly sell them my stash. Have a great weekend!
teg296
(11/19/2004; 14:30:49 MDT - Msg ID: 126567)
gold lease rates
TownCrier,

thank you very much. Hopefully a boardmember has a usefull link or data vendor up their sleve. My search has been pretty unsuccessful the last few days.
USAGOLD Daily Market Report
(11/19/2004; 15:27:47 MDT - Msg ID: 126568)
Page Update!
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Daily Gold Market Report has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.

Friday market excerpts

The dollar-sensitive market got another boost after bearish comments on the greenback by U.S. Federal Reserve chief Alan Greenspan, dealers said.

COMEX December gold futures rose $4.10 to end at $447...

"With the euro strong and the dollar weak, and everything else the way it is, it looks like gold should hit $450 early next week," said Pioneer Futures analyst Scott Meyers.

More investors have turned to gold recently as a safeguard against lingering economic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions.

The price is up 40 percent from its low last year at $320 and about 70 percent over the last three years.

The market seemed to shrug off news the Bank of France agreed to sell 500 tonnes to 600 tonnes of its gold reserves over the next five years. The bank did not give a start date for the sale, saying its governor would decide on the timing according to market conditions.

The dollar on Friday tumbled to a four-year low against the yen and neared an all-time low versus the euro after Greenspan said appetite for dollar investments would eventually wane.

In Greenspan's remarks prepared for delivery to a European bankers conference in Frankfurt, he said: "It seems persuasive that, given the size of the U.S. current account deficit, a diminished appetite for adding to dollar balances must occur at some point."

The euro last fetched a strong $1.3039 supported by ideas that finance ministers in the Group of 20 meeting in Berlin starting Friday will not move to slow the greenback's slide.

----(see url for access to full news, 24-hr International newswire, price charts)----
Tevye
(11/19/2004; 15:45:37 MDT - Msg ID: 126569)
(No Subject)

GAB, Thanks for taking the time to comment. Very worthwhile. Someday I will read it all. Underlying my earlier DX post was the notion that longer term analysis is too complex and not nearly predictive enough.

Chally, I also believe simple trend lines and moving averages are best for understanding how the thoughts and emotions of traders presently establish a short term trend.

I still have much to learn of course.

a saying:
A reasonable man adapts to his situation (e.g. his condition or environment).
An unreasonable man insists that his situation adapt to him.
Therefore, all progress depends on the efforts of unreasonable men.


Gold. It's Tradition!
(hmmm, reasonable or unreasonable?)

Tevye
YGM
(11/19/2004; 16:30:51 MDT - Msg ID: 126570)
As years go by......
http://www.usagold.com/GoldTrail/archives/ANOTHER1.htmlI periodicly re-read Anothers Thoughts...(& FOA)...Now w/ all we see re: Euro, Oil and US Fiat, and world Gov'ts switching to Euro I think his (their) thoughts, for me anyways, become much more lucid and poignant.....One mysterious and connected pair, our departed friends "Another & FOA", of this
I'm very sure.......I shall spend my weekend going back once again thru what now seems to be a remarkable time for this forum and those who read here....Good wkend all & Thanks "Boilermaker".....YGM
TownCrier
(11/19/2004; 16:35:00 MDT - Msg ID: 126571)
It is what it is, calling a spade a spade
http://www.telegraphindia.com/1041120/asp/business/story_4026942.aspHEADLINE: Hint of gold rush on bourses

(Calcutta Telegraph) Mumbai, Nov. 19: The day's not far away when gold, like shares, will be bought through local bourses and stored in demat accounts.

Gold is traded in the spot market on the London Stock Exchange and the Indian government is considering a similar move. Even New York Stock Exchange does not trade in spot gold.

In India, gold is traded electronically in the futures segment of commodity exchanges.

The move will allow investors to buy gold in small amounts and save them in demat form. If need be, the investors can rematerialise the gold for a small fee.

----(from url)----

With the formerly lucrative gold-for-oil derivative business on the outs, bullion banks are in for a last, desperate gambit to capture what individual business they can to smooth the transitional operations during this paradigm shift.

Trying to deal "dematerialized" gold in spot trade for Indian investors is simply another variation of the reverse-alchemistic paperization of metal in the bankers' ongoing struggle to keep ownership concepts for gold ambiguously monetized rather than allowing for pure title notions to take hold as is naturally accepted with most other items of tangible property.

As Aristotle intimated Wednesday with regard to the new gold ETF in the U.S., if custodians can appoint subcustodians and so on without recourse to inspection and without incurring liabilities for eventual conditions of non-delivery, then the lines between allocated and unallocated accounts have thus been blurred beyond relevance, and the gold has been effectively dematerialized along with the unique value conveyed by specifically by tenets of ownership and property rights under our framework of law.

Don't be too surprised to see increasing solicitations targeting the individual sector for prospective participants. After all, somebody is needed to be found -- to be left holding the bag.

R.
Survivor
(11/19/2004; 16:45:58 MDT - Msg ID: 126572)
Speaking of Calling A Spade A Spade . . . .

Let's see. I go buy some gold ETF certificates and stuff them in my wallet.

Then I go to a trader of material goods and swap a couple of my certificates for a couple of his widgets.

Gosh and golly, I've just made a purchase with gold-backed paper currency. What a concept!! :)

(TC: Did I get the tongue-in-cheek across with the printed word?)

Have a great weekend all
- survivor

TownCrier
(11/19/2004; 17:08:37 MDT - Msg ID: 126573)
Survivor, yes, that's the deal.
And in the exact same way as your example, a purchase of anything can also be made by a dollar that is backed by 'everything'... when it works.

And backed by nothing when it doesn't.

The value of the so-called "backing" tangibles, on the other hand, will always have their value regardless of whether or not the paper side is working as designed. Hence the merit in holding some well-chosen tangibles directly rather than contractually through a series of paper chutes and ladders.

R.
Topaz
(11/19/2004; 18:41:33 MDT - Msg ID: 126574)
@GAB.
We truly are at a most interesting juncture with PoG Sir Bat. Europhiles would have us believe they (ECB) would relish a rising E/PoG in tandem with a rising, albeit less so $PoG. This however imo will jeapordize Golds "currency" status as "out-of-the-Box FreeGold" waltzes triumphantly onto centrestage ... hopefully once and for all as the REAL sparks would then start a-flyin!

Many's the slip twixt Cup and Lip tho GAB.
Sundeck
(11/19/2004; 19:20:21 MDT - Msg ID: 126575)
ETFs plus Greenspan plus Macfarlane and "nifty little tales"

On gold ETFs, I wonder whether other exchange tradeable trusts, like "property trusts", for example, absolve the custodian and trust manager of "asset scrutiny" to the same extent as seems to be present in this new gold ETF?

Cui bono - who benifits - from this thing?

It would seem to me that it is being set up to look and trade like any other exchange-traded security, like a tech stock IPO for example. However, in the case of an ordinary IPO, it would be apparent from the prospectus (at least to any serious investor) whether the new listing was likely to be highly speculative, moderately speculative or reasonably sound. With this thing, the impression of "gold backing" gives it a 5-star halo, but when you look at the detail in the prospectus, it looks (almost) like a scam.

The price of its tradeable scrip will not be just dependent on the current price of gold, but also on the perceived prospects for the price of gold (fairly positive). This would tend to drive the scrip price into premium territory (just like a dot.bomb share). On the down-side, the price of the scrip will also depend on things that impact negatively on the ETF (like management and accounting scandals).

So...cui bono...especially if the fund were to go belly up? Well, all that capital raised from an unsuspecting public that was supposed to be channeled into gold purchases and safe storage may well be scattered to the four corners of the investment world with little trace (just like Enron or any of the hundreds of failed dot.bombs). And the investors, it seems from the fine print, would have very little recourse...the custodian, sub-custodians, .... sub,...'sub-custodians to the nth, being either unknown or absolved of responsibility.

Really...the investing public would be MUCH better off buying the real thing; or shares in a reputable gold miner, because in that case the assets and liabilities are more visible, subjected to audit, and the shareholders entitlements would appear to be much better defined in the case company failure.

Just as many persons and organisations deliberately set up IPOs to enrich themselves, this thing has a similar smell - at least to me...

................................

It is remarkable, at least to me, that we now have the governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia making unprecedented criticisms of Australian debt levels and bank-lending practices at the same time as we now have Al Greenspan openly and relatively bluntly commenting on the direction of the US-dollar and problems with fiscal and trade deficits. Not so long ago, Mr Greenspan was saying that there were no signs that foreigners were reluctant to fund the US deficits. Now he seems to have turned 180 degrees. Is he at last being "truly independent" OF GOVERNMENT? Or is he being the strident voice of government (in place of Snow)?

Oh...FWIW...the Reserve Bank of Australia has been selling Ozzie dollars..."replenishing foreign reserves" again I suspect ;-)

....................

Sir Aristotle,

Aww...cummon. This does not sound like you... What is this "nifty little tale" to which you refer?

pssst...I won't tell anyone else...

;-)
Great Albino Bat
(11/19/2004; 19:52:46 MDT - Msg ID: 126576)
Now, Tell us another Mr. Noyer!

Mr. Noyer on behalf of Bank of France said over the next five years, 500 to 600 tons of its gold will be sold, with interest on the proceeds producing $262 million, to be applied to reducing the debt and to investing in Research.

Hmmm...$262 million of $1,300,000,000,000 debt amounts to - the grandiose sume of 0.02% That is two-hundredths of one percent. BIG DEAL!

Great story! Tell us another, Mr. Noyer.

The GAB
Gandalf the White
(11/19/2004; 20:44:34 MDT - Msg ID: 126577)
AND there IT IS ! The latest litle Green "X" on the POG P&F Chart !
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=$GOLD,PWTBDANRBO[PA][D][F1!3!!!2!20]⪯f=GThis one is for the $448. level that was broken today !
Will this ROCKET become an "A", "B", "C" ROCKET ?
Only time will tell !!!
To the MOON, Alice !!!
<;-)
Caradoc
(11/19/2004; 23:34:12 MDT - Msg ID: 126578)
China's global energy search
http://news.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2004/11/19/wchina19.xml&sSheet=/news/2004/11/19/ixworld.htmlTwo snips merged into one:
China's insatiable demand for energy is prompting fears of financial and diplomatic collisions around the globe as it seeks reliable supplies of oil from as far away as Brazil and Sudan...preferably ones which could not be stopped by America in case of conflict over Taiwan.

You know things have changed (i.e., are in the process of becoming "interesting") when Matt Drudge has links to stories like this one. A year ago, such a story would have been of interest here and only a few other places.

Caradoc
Belgian
(11/20/2004; 00:26:02 MDT - Msg ID: 126579)
ETF - French Gold....
Only an homeopathic amount of physical gold will land, at best, into this umpthieth gold-paper-machine !
The different factions (�-$) of planning controllers don't want "you" to have any control on them...with your accumulation of your physical gold-property. This is a continuation of political warfare at the highest level.

The G-20 show, illustrates (less) subtly how the political will to escape from the dollar-world, is growing. Many, want out from under the dollar-system. All factions are maneuvering for financial self-preservation.

Preservation of the existing paper-goldmarket ($) >>> versus >>> the destruction of this paper-goldmarket (�).
The former general political will to control/capture the "price" of gold for the sake of the dollar world currency and all its derivatives,...is gradually melting away !!!

Gold's consistant price-trend is getting close to attrackt general attention. Idem for oil. That's tremendously disturbing for the different planning controllers...who wish that the general public keeps on believing in "the markets" � la Rich & Cos.

There are no dark conspiracies, but outlayed plans and goals ! Don't remain intimitaded by the many (obvious)inconsistant messages and signals that are deliberately fired at us...who "see" the gold nearby future.

There will be no consensus statement from the G-20. Only individual fractions of half statements/messages...hints...produced with hypocritical faces. Many do have to hide a lot. Take your time to let this embroglio of statements, sink in.

The daily flow of altering interpretations on dollar exchange rate, gold/oil-prices, IRs...and the silence about debts and deficits...plus the global growth-hysteria...is strong indication that something is rotten in a Shakespeare way.
Many wish to let it rot fast...others try to desinfect it further. Most, don't have a clue...don't have any suspicion... about what has been planned. High noon to make up your personal mind on all this ! Amen.
mikal
(11/20/2004; 10:04:01 MDT - Msg ID: 126580)
A framework for fiat finagling
http://www.economist.com/agenda/displayStory.cfm?story_id=3397847Currency Conundrum - November 19, 2004
From the Economist Global Edition
Article provides a seldom seen framework, within which those finance ministers and central bankers of the G20 meeting can act.
Though these actions are defined (and limited) by a more complex world, they're distilled down to only a few major considerations:
*The ECB's longstanding, inflation-fighting mandate and thus political inability to intervene in exchange rates.
*The "Asian-crisis in reverse" that threatens to continue domestically unpopular currency appreciation in Asian states, how selling of Asian currencies by these states has produced inflation and backlash and why Asians are betting on unpegging of Chinese Yuan vs U.S.$.
*Why Bank of Japan's major $ intervention on Forex has slowed
Cometose
(11/20/2004; 10:09:11 MDT - Msg ID: 126581)
Gold/ Dollar / Greenspan Germany Comment/ Who is Alan Greenspan ?
I just listened to FSN and specifically listend to David Morgan's quote of the Statement of Alan Greenspan speaking in Germany .....(the context of his statement may be very significant) and then Mr Morgans transliteration of this which I recommend every one listening to .....

1. Beginning with the last portion (caption) first "WHO IS ALAN GREENSPAN ?" Alan Greenspan is to BANKING what the Pontiff in Rome is to the CATHOLIC CHURCH , a global entity.


2. Alan Greenspan on Friday said openly (out of the closet ) what Jim Sinclair has been saying for months and reiterating continually ....Gold is in the Dollar and the Dollar is on the gurney in the Emergency Room ...currently on life support.

3. Alan Greenspan's comments re the dollar on Friday in context ....as the head of all banking .......relate him to JP MORGAN CHASE.
I believe it was here within the last two weeks or perhaps at an INTERNET AFFILIATED GOLD STATION that someone cited an interview that one of the Financial News shows did with a representative at JP MORGAN on GOLD .
THe substance of what I remember from this account was that the JPMORGAN REP was very elusive . Didn't want to answer directly , hem and hawed and was restless (body language). This was an interview with someone who is perhaps in the know about affairs at JP MORGAN who was appearing on TV and appearing in and UNDERSTATED kind of way . I will add that this interview occured prior to GOLD passing over 442.. and remaining in closing status above this level which means the interview happened prior to a week ago friday. In "understated tones" this representative of JP MORGAN said that the GOLD MARKET LOOKED STRONG which was saying in all probability a lot less than he knows.

3. We reached 16 1/2 year highs in the gold market on Friday ; EVERY SHORT THAT THE BIG BOYS HAVE WRITTEN since the last 16.5 years is now under water..........This might give more evidence and clues as to what was not said by the JP MORGAN REPRESENTATIVE ON the matter of GOLD .What is not said is often more important than what is said .
THIS OMMISSION might be interpreted in a literal context if we were reading a NOVEL as a FIGURE OF SPEECH . These gramatical expressions inserted by writers to give emphasis at that point in time to what is being said.

4. In his(Greenspan's ) statement and in it's context , it is now evident and being opined by Jim Puplava and others ....that
the adminstration's stance on the dollar as decidedly bearish in direct opposition to Secretary of Treasurer Snow's repeated comments to the contrary (that the US SUPPORTS A STRONG DOLLAR) .
It is believed that letting the dollar now fall will serve as the next round of economic stimulus which will be accompanied by inflation .

5. I'm not going to say anything new here , but just to repeat ....WHAT ALL OF THESE CURRENTS TELL ME ABOUT
THE POSITION OF GOLD and our relationship to that is the following:

LOWERING EXPOSURE TO THE GOLD MARKET IN THIS CONTEXT MIGHT BE RISKIER at this specific juncture than increasing one's exposure.

ARE WE NOT ALL WALKING/Following IN THE FOOTSTEPS OF GIANTS.......?

AND IS IT NOT NOW POSSIBLE that one of the NEW GIANTS which has BEEN FORCED TO TURN and FOLLOW , is JPMORGAN CHASE????

I have the distinct impression that MR GREENSPAN'S Friday's comments SHORT AND LONG TERM IMPACTS are going to be = ACCELERATED DOLLAR SELLING GLOBALLY = INCREASED PRICE OF GOLD

SHOULD not the rest of the WORLD follow in the FOOTSTEPS of GIANTS ( ALAN GREENSPAN in the WORLD's VIEW is a GIANT and they want to follow on the Currents his comments make to make a BUCK ) Alan Greenspan knows the real story on GOLD ; he wrote a paper on it some thirty years ago, advocating its use as a standard in monetary affairs.

I BELIEVE that ALAN GREENSPAN'S Friday STATEMENT was the greatest CHRISTMAS GIFT that GOLD BUGS WILL RECIEVE THIS YEAR and the PROPORTION OF THAT GIFT may be magnified by one's increased exposure to the METAL between now and then !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

YGM
(11/20/2004; 11:16:26 MDT - Msg ID: 126582)
Oil headway will fail to meet demand
http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/8853FFB5-3368-44D1-82AE-4066D9FCEA09.htmExcerpt....Because as well as finding fields and increasing demand there is another less mentioned factor in play.

"Depletion of oilfields is something that is not widely recognised. But we now know that a number of major producers are in decline.

"That lost capacity has now reached significant proportions. From the figures provided by BP we know that the world is losing an annualised one million barrels a day with 18 producer countries now in permanent decline."


Excerpt....

"Essentially these figures say that the levels of demand growth are unsustainable. There will not be spare capacity to maintain either growth or prices at current levels. Prices would soar."

However, there is one possibility that could restrain demand, a recession.

"The only thing that could really change the equation is some kind of global recession that would dampen demand.

"Of course, that could be catastrophic and the effects of it could be felt all over the planet. Barring something like this, it is very hard to see any scenario in which demand could be met. That is worrying indeed."

***The last two paragraphs are of particular importance, in the scene now unfolding....YGM



Belgian
(11/20/2004; 11:16:36 MDT - Msg ID: 126583)
Distilled from the G-20 show....
The dollar exchange rate will crash down as soon as the US trade deficits are slowing down and the exporters into the dollar slow down in buying the green paper derivatives.
Sir Alan stated the unthinkable : Be responsible and hedge all your dollar holdings...or face loses !

Total US debtberg reaches 100 (one hundred) Trillion. Impossible to raise IRs on such a debtberg.

The dollar exchange rate is discussed publicly ...because it has become less relevant in the face of the enormous debtberg and the catch 22 situation on the US$ trade deficits. Many are "silently" (privatly) focussing on the "dollar-system" now, rather than on the dollar-currency's exchange rate.

In my opinion, it is clear that the dollar's fate is lying in the future actions of the exporters into the dollar. Oil reserve owners included. As soon as the growing exporters to the dollar do see a declining trade surplus (declining US trade deficit), they will call for Another numeraire with Another concept. Greenspan warned (again) that the US$ trade deficits are reaching their limits. The non dollar factions keep acting their hypocritical formalities and maneuver the dollar out of its reserve function...

The US$ exchange rate decline happens orderly because it suits all very well. That's why a (interventional) consensus on this particular matter is existing. Even Mbeki (South Afrika) does not want to lower the exchange rate of the rand. What suddenly happened to the global consensus of lower exchange rate competition !? Gone in reverse !? A strong (?) dollar that is weakening against weaker currencies !? Very strange.

The accumulation of dollar paper through export surplusses can live with a continued, orderly declining, dollar exchange rate. Not with a brutal dollar crash + spiking IRs.
What managerial choices has the dollar left ? Devastating and finalising Hyperinflation...? I guess that's the only option left. That's why the derivative-bergs will keep growing. Impossible to "unwind" this situation without enormous collateral damage.
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(11/20/2004; 13:34:41 MDT - Msg ID: 126584)
Hard assets, easy access!
http://www.usagold.com/buy-gold-coins.html

gold -- a global calling card
Topaz
(11/20/2004; 14:30:58 MDT - Msg ID: 126585)
Comex Gold OI.
http://www.crbtrader.com/data/default.asp?page=quote&sym=GCZ4&mode=dCoT report for last Tuesday shows OI @ 362K and Fridays CRB Data (see Link) indicates this figure now closer to 400K.
Big hill Monday for the little PoG engine that could.
TownCrier
(11/20/2004; 14:40:49 MDT - Msg ID: 126586)
The ABCs of Gold Investing
http://www.usagold.com/cpm/abcs.htmlDid you know that your purchase can be written off as a deductible investment expense when you file your taxes?

Just one more reason to take advantage of this discount offer and arm yourself with information.

R.
Ned
(11/20/2004; 16:00:51 MDT - Msg ID: 126587)
Cometose, All
http://www.prudentbear.com/internationalperspective.aspThanks for the note about Greenspan, interesting indeed!

Here's the latest from Summers, now that he can speak (somewhat) openly:

"First, is the current US current account deficit a transient that will self-correct without a major discontinuity in the global economy? Second, is the large and growing US current account deficit a sign of economic vitality or an incipient problem? Third, is the current US account deficit and the associated reliance on official intervention from nations dependent on exports to the United States a desirable or sustainable state of affairs? Fourth, what is to be done?"

"If the global economy grows in a completely balanced way, with all imports and exports rising in proportion to the size of the global economy, the US current account deficit deteriorates. Each $1 increase in US exports is associated with an additional $1.50 in US imports. Or to put the point differently, if over a 5-year period, US imports and exports both grow at 6 percent (about in line with historic averages) and the US economy grows at 3 percent, the current account deficit on this account alone will increase by close to 1 percent of GDP."

"in looking at a large current account deficit in the classic emerging market context, [it is important to distinguish] whether than investment�is taking place in the traded goods sector, where it is generating the export capacity that can ultimately service debt, or whether investment is being allocated increasingly to the non-traded goods sector. Here, too, the record is clear: an unusual interest rate environment and heavy foreign competition in manufacturing has changed the composition of investments in the United States substantially toward the non-traded goods sector as manifested particularly in the dramatic increases in the price of residential real estate in and around most major American cities."

"For the United States, an arrangement of this kind, even if it could be maintained indefinitely, carries with it two substantial risks. One risk is the incipient protectionist pressures that are generated by a large trade deficit�The second risk of a system of this kind�is a more amorphous one but one that is no less serious�How long should the world's greatest debtor remain the world's largest borrower? I have previously used the term �balance of financial terror� to refer to a situation where we rely on the costs of others of not financing our current account deficit as assurance that financing will continue."

(Marshal Auerbach adds much, much more to this discussion.)


Arcticfox
(11/20/2004; 17:53:18 MDT - Msg ID: 126588)
Richard Russell...from this past Friday
Question -- Will the declining dollar help the US trade deficit? Probably not, because the Chinese have pegged their currency to the dollar -- thus, the renminbi will decline with the dollar. It's Europe who will be hurt by the declining dollar, and probably Japan, and, of course, Japan has been buying dollars by the carload. Also, Americans themselves will be hurt by the declining dollar, since the fading dollar will drive up the cost of everything sold in Wal-Mart and every other massive mart.

comment:

How can costs for products at Wal-Mart go up as $US goes down if the renminbi stays pegged..?
mas
(11/20/2004; 19:44:52 MDT - Msg ID: 126589)
USD discussions behind closed doors? And what about the British Pound?
From euronews.com

Weak dollar leads to strong feelings

With the euro having hit a new record, above $1.3050, European finance ministers want to restore the currency balance. In his comments, German finance Minister Hans Eichel seems to believe there can be progress: "It is like ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said a brutal development. We'll have to discuss it, but as is appropriate with currency matters, it'll be behind closed doors and then hopefully with a joint position from Japan, the US and Europe."

Adding to Europe's export problems, the British pound is also weak against the European currency at around 70 pence per euro, its lowest level this year. The pound fell after the latest British government figures showed retail sales decreased by 0.4% in October, compared with a rise of 1.1% the month before. Consumers' spending enthusiasm has been curbed by five interest rate rises from the Bank of England in the last year.
Paper Avalanche
(11/20/2004; 19:55:21 MDT - Msg ID: 126590)
Iranian Petroleum Exchange to open in 120 days
http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2004/06/18/1087245103758.html?from=storylhs&oneclick=trueWhile not stating either the anticipated start date (which I have read to be March 2005) or the fact that this new exchange will price oil in Euros (again, not specifically stated in the article, but I read it on other forums recently), I wonder if the dollar faction will allow this to come to pass.

Take care.

Paper Avalanche
Paper Avalanche
(11/20/2004; 20:05:40 MDT - Msg ID: 126591)
MUCH better article of Iranian Petroleum Exchange & Euro's for Oil
http://www.altpr.org/modules.php?op=modload&name=News&file=article&sid=355Check this out.

I tested the link that I previuosly posted and I got some lame registration requirement for the news organization that published it. This is a MUCH better articla that highlights those points that will make the next few months very, very interesting.

BTW, Ari called me this afternoon and said that he is buying silver now. : )

Take care.

PA
Paper Avalanche
(11/20/2004; 20:13:45 MDT - Msg ID: 126592)
China says when, not if, on pulling plug on dollar
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/texashedge/texashedge112204.htmlCheck this out.

Sorry about no snips. I'm lazy.


Take care.

PA
Aristotle
(11/20/2004; 20:30:41 MDT - Msg ID: 126593)
Buying silver?
Not in this lifetime.

Gold. Get you some. --- Ari
Paper Avalanche
(11/20/2004; 21:02:58 MDT - Msg ID: 126594)
@ Ari
Just kidding.

I was curious to see if you were awake tonight.

Take care good friend.

PA
mikal
(11/20/2004; 21:14:14 MDT - Msg ID: 126595)
Reasons for foreigners(and Americans) to just do it, grab gold!
A few of the many reasons foreigners will continue diversifying outside of U.S.$ denominated assets include:
*Knowing that the reported U.S. current account and budget deficits as a percentage of GDP are skewed by the U.S. Enron-style accounting, "proforma" and statistical fictions instead of the world standard of accounting - GAAP
*Knowing that the dollar values required to be paid as interest to service the principle on U.S. debts will become even more onerous
*Knowing that the combined U.S. debt reported by independent agencies is tens of trillions of dollars that are depreciating at an accelerating rate
*Knowing that these trillions of U.S. $debt are themselves exploding in an unsustainable trajectory
Great Albino Bat
(11/20/2004; 21:52:41 MDT - Msg ID: 126596)
About the new Gold Fund Shares...thoughts, doubts and questions

Someone has already mentioned this, but perhaps it bears repeating, for continued consideration:

The new shares can become a new form of GOLD-BACKED money.

This competes with Jim Turk's "gold money"; although I think Turk's "gold money" is preferable, as placing the owner of "gold grams" in a position with regard to gold that can only be surpassed by actual physical possession, the shares in the Gold Fund have the undoubted commercial advantage of publicity and distribution through brokerage houses.

The doubts remain regarding the integrity of the Gold Fund because of the use of custodians, sub-custodians, and sub-sub-custodians which apparently are not absolutely auditable. Also, doubts about manipulation: if stocks in companies are manipulated through short sales, will these shares suffer the same manipulation?

This is a problem which cannot go away - nothing can compare with the actual, physical direct ownership of gold. That is the problem of all "gold-backed" money: There is always the question, "Just how much gold is actually there?"

However, in today's world, the shares of the Gold Fund may come to be accepted in the world market, as payment for transactions and for settlement of debts, if anyone should wish to tender them.

When the U.S. was on the gold standard, gold was rarely seen. Money bills were "promissory notes", that promised to pay gold upon demand, and that satisfied people. Maybe these gold shares will become, in time, just another name for gold-backed money? "Shares" instead of "promissory notes"? The transference of ownership might be cumbersome. I have no knowledge in this department.

Question: What about a contract that stipulates payment in Gold Fund shares? Possible, later on?

The GAB
Great Albino Bat
(11/20/2004; 21:58:06 MDT - Msg ID: 126597)
Aristotle: about buying silver...

Never say never.
YGM
(11/20/2004; 22:10:24 MDT - Msg ID: 126598)
Gold vs; Silver endless debate......
Silver manipulated for short term gain...Gold manipulated for end result of long term paper demise...The poor man may gain from AG, but the rich man will stay rich (er) from Gold (PHYSICAL NOT PROMISARY)....Just one man's opinion..YGM
2023
(11/20/2004; 23:46:48 MDT - Msg ID: 126599)
Greenspan warning hits dollar
From the Weekend edition of the Financial Times Saturday November 20 and Sunday November 21

"Alan Greenspan yesterday issued a strong warning about the increasingly less tenable US current account deficit, triggering fresh falls in the dollar.
Speaking as finance ministers and central bank governors began gathering in Berlin for a G20 meeting of representatives of leading world economies, Mr Greenspan hinted that he expected the dollar to bear much of the brunt of adjusting a current account deficit in excess of 5 percent of GDP.
The Fed chairman suggested foreign investors woud eventually reach a limit in their desire to finance the US current account deficit and diversify into other currencies or demand higher US interest rates, elevating the cost of financing the deficit and rendering it increasingly less tenable. He also played down the effectiveness of large-scale intervention in currency markets but made clear world interest rates were on an upward trend."

end
----

I find it interesting that he 'hinted' that the 'dollar will bear much of the brunt of adjusting the current account deficit'. Look for higher interest rates and more Federal Reserve Notes to purchase an ounce of gold.

Does Greenspin and John Snow(job) ever talk to each other?? They are not on the same page when it comes to the US$$$ .........

Also, they don't admit it but they (the banking cartel) interveen in all markets - now more than ever. Yet Greenspin says it doesn't work. It hasn't worked with Au lately.

Glad I've got gold, gold shares, and a few oil shares.

Have a good weekend.

dave
Belgian
(11/21/2004; 01:20:39 MDT - Msg ID: 126600)
@GAB
The main reason that paper-gold remains so powerfully attractive for westerners,... is gold's obscene,...permanent under-valuation.
Once the amount of a few coins (or even less) of physical gold shall...is allowed to reflect/express your entire wealth...there will be no need anymore for the virtual leverages that paper-gold is still suggesting.

The more paper that is created to encircle the minuscule physical gold trades...the more that physical gold has to "compete" with those growing paper giants. People fight for more of that same worthless paper and demand (hope) that others make the price of physical gold fluctuate at their goldpaper's service ! Thereby NOT understanding that it is their increasing amounts of gold-paper that is controlling the price of the minuscule physical goldtrades.

This system (concept) is perpetually "more" paper and "less" gold, wrapped in an infernal downwards spiral of "value". Paper, produced by the financial industry...the financial economy,...kills gold-wealth.

Paper-gold players are saddled with the illusion that they have a "direct" link with the true value of physical gold.
It is the price of the Google stock that says what the Google enterprise is supposed to be worth. Where it should be the other way around...the qualitative profitability of Google should guide the pricing/valuation of its shares.
We have been accepting an upside down (financial) world.
W're going totally "virtual". This extreme fun is NOT going to last.

It is impossible to keep on navigating in an ever expanding "financial" ocean that has become infested with giant debtbergs. Derivatives are illusionarry lifejackets.

The ONLY...DIRECT...link with gold is its private physical ownership. And it is exactly this tangible ownership that has to be avoided at any cost. Let gold be percepted as not worth the effort of "holding" it ...! This will perfectly do the trick. Promote publicly, ridicule price projections for gold and remain assured that the public stays with the controlled goldpaper leverages. Google paper doubled in price...not gold ! Provide certificate after certificate...embed them in paper and let all the physical gold flow to weird wealth fanatics (hum).

I say ...no "thanks"...to the debt-dogmatics !

The inevitable coming "GIANT" re-valuation of gold will brutally change the long builded perceptions about gold.
Gold as a store of wealth will be made "evident" again. For the simple reason that gold cannot be kept embedded into its paper context. There are limits to this trick. We have seen some of those limits in the past 90 years (1933-1971).

This world is an enormous "perception-building" machine. Almost a perfect one...almost !? But can one keep on fooling all the people...all the time !? Nooooooo, Sir. Nice WE to you.
ge
(11/21/2004; 01:40:10 MDT - Msg ID: 126601)
Gold Chart from 1986
http://goldseek.com/news/GoldAction/images/2004/11-20ga/1.PNGPleasing to look at. Treat it as an art item if you like.
Great Albino Bat
(11/21/2004; 09:15:03 MDT - Msg ID: 126602)
More thoughts on the "Gold Fund" and its implications....
http://www.streettracksgoldshares.com/us/value/gb_value_usa.php#1
Note: "imply" comes from the Latin, literally meaning, "to fold in". So, that's what we're trying to figure out, what's "folded in" to the Gold Fund.

From the link below, you can see that the amount of gold ounces in the Trust adds up to: 57.85 tons of gold.

One might say, that's helpful to gold, because that's 57.85 tons that have been taken off the market. But one might be wrong about that.

The gold has NOT been taken off the market. It is NOT in the hands of individual owners who are going to hold it long-term, as savings.

The "investors" have actually put MORE GOLD into the hands of the group known as the CABAL. Now, THEY have 57.85 tons to play with, which they did not have before. How can they play with this gold - it's in a Trust, right? They can't touch it, right? Yes, that's so - but they certainly can play with the shares! And that's as effective as playing with the gold itself. Another version of COMEX, if you will.

The more shares of the Gold Fund that are sold, THE MORE GOLD GOES INTO THE HANDS OF THE CABAL! Gold investors who buy these shares, are their own worst enemies, IMO.

Just when those who have been trashing gold for years, are running out of gold to sell - presto! The investors themselves are going to give them the gold they need, to continue trashing it.

And notice that if you want to call the Gold Fund's bluff, you have to come up with something like $4,500,000 dollars, the equivalent of 100,000 shares which you must tender in order to obtain the physical. Very, very few individuals will ever want to call for their physical gold!

You didn't really believe these Wall Street types were going to give the Common Man a break, did you?

Another rabbit out of the hat! "There's a sucker born every minute!"

The future of gold lies in the hands of the "backward" peoples of the earth, the "towelheads" and the Indians, who are not sophisticated enough to invest "the modern way" - in Gold Fund shares. Blessed are the backward, for they shall have physical Gold.

The GAB
Topaz
(11/21/2004; 11:50:08 MDT - Msg ID: 126603)
Belgian and GAB.
Two OUTSTANDING posts to kick off the week!

BRAVO.
Topaz
(11/21/2004; 12:46:19 MDT - Msg ID: 126604)
The all-pervasive "fractional reserve"
Further to Belgian and GAB, I'd like to to attempt a little experiment ... Randy, your assistance please!
Lets assume Physical Gold is represented by the Forum Hall of Fame ...and Paper Gold by this here daily Forum.
If we take a ratio of Forum visits to HoF visits, we would imo have an accurate basis for understanding the magic of Fractional Reserve.
This ratio is well understood in Business and Finance and...given the "freedom" unbacked Fiat bestows, EVERYTHING is now held in fractional reserve. Your Stock portfolio, your mortgage (anyone who has tried to close out a mortgage will, I'm sure understand this)... AND your GOLD!
The inevitable Derivatives meltdown will catch ALL participants who don't have "possession" by complete surprise!
Moegold
(11/21/2004; 13:09:36 MDT - Msg ID: 126605)
Gold ETF
When FDR decided that the salvation of the economy required a significant devaluation of the currency he first confiscated gold. This would be difficult to do today, as people wouldn't keep it in their safe deposit boxes to be confiscated during a "bank holiday". Perhaps the gold ETF is a way for the government to track the whereabouts of the gold. Confiscation would merely required paying some amount of dollars for each outstanding gold ETF share. Very convenient.
Smeagol
(11/21/2004; 13:11:00 MDT - Msg ID: 126606)
not Randy, but...
sss... you may have ssomething there, Ssir Topaz...we cannot change the contents of the Hall of Fame... except perhaps by adding to it from time to time precious bits of Precious-related wisdom once in a while... while the Forum is the Thought-ore that we all sift for that ssame wisdom! Not all shovels each one of us throws will yield the highest worth ALL of the time... but we gladly assay all to the lasst grain, and the results are as precious as Precious to us.

S.
Belgian
(11/21/2004; 13:43:01 MDT - Msg ID: 126607)
B. Bloom - GE
Bloom has a marvellous 35 yrs chart in his essay : The goldprice in Indian rupee. Indians have been and always will... store their wealth... in (freepriced)gold and keep on using their rupee numeraire for practical transactional settlement. This 35 yrs history of rupee POG, simply reflects the inevitable permanent depreciation of any fiat. What a jewel in "their" crown.

Dollar-euro-yen fiat, have started a similar goldprice pattern. I don't expect that the ongoing rising goldprice-trend will be broken as to abort the "new" trend...as had to happen after the too early take off in 1980.

As I stated already some years ago...the dollar-index is definitely in its final C-leg-down within its giant ABC-down-pattern that started at its ATH in 1985.

The 35 yrs yen-POG chart pattern very strongly suggests that the goldprice in yen has made a multi year saucer bottom and the only way that such a pattern can evolve is parabolicaly UP ! Because of the fundamentals and the coming changes in gold and not because of pure technical interpretations.

The WAG I-II actions (interventions) are increasingly gaining in deep fundamental importance. A new gold era is born.
Maiden Fan
(11/21/2004; 14:20:49 MDT - Msg ID: 126608)
Central Fund of Canada (CEF)
GAB, What is your feeling about CEF? Do you have the same opinion of it as GLD? I own some shares of CEF in an IRA. I now wish I had just bought physical, but it's hard to hard to sell out of an IRA (tax penalties and so forth.
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(11/21/2004; 15:01:29 MDT - Msg ID: 126609)
Proudly serving gold investors since 1973
http://www.usagold.com/buy-gold-coins.html

gold -- a global calling card
Boilermaker
(11/21/2004; 15:13:21 MDT - Msg ID: 126610)
Bloom Article URL
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/bloom112004.htmlHere's the URL for article with the Indian Rupee vs. gold chart mentioned earlier by Belgian.
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(11/21/2004; 15:16:09 MDT - Msg ID: 126611)
What you need to know before you buy your first ounce of gold...
http://www.usagold.com/cpm/goldhelp.html

Q. How does USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals position itself among its competitors with regard to credibility, reputability and pricing?

MK. USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals has always been considered one of the most reputable firms in the business and it's always been that way. We have placed literally thousands of ounces of gold with investors and our repeat business and referrals are both very strong. That doesn't happen unless you know what you are doing and your clients know that you know what you are doing. If I were to sum it up, I would say we combine the first rate services and research that you would expect from a very large firm with the favorable pricing you would expect from a smaller, client-conscious firm.

Chris Powell
(11/21/2004; 17:41:55 MDT - Msg ID: 126612)
James Turk studies the World Gold Council's bullion ETC
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/2556And it ain't pretty!

Latest GATA dispatch.



To subscribe to GATA's dispatches, send an e-mail to:

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Paper Avalanche
(11/21/2004; 18:41:59 MDT - Msg ID: 126613)
ETF - Price Suppression Tool or Market Participation Vehicle?
By now most of us here either believe that the ETF is yet another tool for the paper gold cartel to continue its ongoing suppression of the price of physical gold or that the ETF is a vehicle by which market participation can be dramatically increased. The answer is that we will never know what the specific intent was and is regarding this new paper-gold tool. Here are a few thoughts regarding each position:

PRICE SUPPRESSION TOOL - The ETF does divert SOME funds that otherwise would have been exchanged for physical gold into accounting digits within the framework of a tradeable security. But why now? Why was this not rolled out when POG was below $300 per ounce to considerably extend the paper-gold game (they could possibly have extended the run from $275 to $446 over a period of ten years instead of three). OK, so FRN's / accounting digits are being converted into imaginary gold that few of us believe is backed on a one-to-one ratio between number of shares issued and ounces of gold in trust (similar to fractional reserve banking). And, it appears, that this new product has been specifically designed and marketed to Joe Sixpak (a la the coverage that it received on the infomercial we refer to as CNBC). Of every hundred dollars that will be buying these ETF shares, what percentage would have purchased physical gold anyway? I contend that only a small percentage of funds purchasing the ETF would have otherwise purchased physical gold had no ETF been introduced. The funds that will chase the ETF will be IRA, 401(k), pension and other highly regulated funds that have investment limitations resulting from their tax status. Additionally, had TPTB sought to further suppress the POG there exist an ample array of tools already available to them (i.e. raising the margin requirements on futures contracts, continued naked short positions being perpetually rolled forward and increased on COMEX, intervention by other central banks such as BOJ). The ETF was and is not necessary to continue the paper-gold game. It is duplicative and only heightens awareness on the part of the investing public about the value of gold as a store of wealth. This is not a very effective way to suppress the price of gold IMO, if indeed that is the intent.

Before going on to the next position, let's assume that what Another / FOA anticipated has long been understood as being inevitable by the decision makers within the government and that severe inflation (if not hyperinflation) lie ahead in the not too distant future. Then let us further extrapolate from this assumption that there are those at the top of the financial foodchain who have been positioning themselves accordingly (to whom was the gold sold from the BOE auctions?) who will benefit enormously from POG reaching the prices foretold by the sages on the golden trail. If we view the late nineties as a period of accumulation of gold by TPTB and the financial elite in anticipation of it's new role in international and domestic finance (i.e. VAT in Europe does not apply to gold, China offering gold mortgages), then one is led to conclude that at some point the accumulation phase draws to a close and the tactics used during this phase to artificially lower the price of gold will be abandoned by those who have been perpetrating said manipulation and, given that they have been accumulating gold during the entirety of that period, to their benefit. This behaviour is demonstrated by the dehedging efforts of the major miners. What lay ahead has been known for some time, if not planned.

Having said all that, I continue with what I believe is the second possible and likely intent of the ETF.

MARKET PARTICIPATION VEHICLE - Prior to the ETF there was absolutely no way that Joe SixPack could use the funds in his 401(k) to buy gold aside from possibly buying a handful of metals mining stocks. But these were (and are) risky. These companies could very well go out of business. TPTB needed a vehicle that would allow Joe SixPack to get in on the game after the smart money had taken their positions. The ETF is a terrific means to do this. The government gets the benefit of the ETF being in a higher tax bracket because the "gold" held by the ETF is considered a collectible. Additionally, the government's hand is eesentially being forced by Europe and Asia in as much as the respective governments in these parts of the world have already taken steps to ensure, if not encourage, their citizenry to embrace gold a the absolute, pure store of wealth that it is. The US could not and will not leave its population behind in this respect. The ETF thus has allowed the average American, whose assets are largely tied up in retirement funds (at least the vast majoirty of funds which drove the stock market for the past ten years), to "hitch their wagon" to the next big thing.

Another and FOA did not make up their visions of the world's financial future of the world for thier own amusement. These men knew what changes lie ahead. They stressed not only the gold-oil-dollar relationship and its eventual demise, but also the fact that political forces are as great, if not greater, a force on POG as any market force. IMO, the release of the ETF when POG broke through the last line of resistance only adds to Another's and FOA's position that numerous political decisions will accompany the introduction of free gold to the world.

I may be wrong. I often am.

Take care.

Paper Avalanche
Smeagol
(11/21/2004; 18:52:01 MDT - Msg ID: 126614)
gold ETF = another derivative life ring?

... it doesn't sseem to us that there is near enough Gold (if any) in this ETF paper-stack to do much to the price of It for very long... but would the paper be enough, used at the proper moment, for damage control for Short Ones before year's end?

We also think it funny how the France-country all of a ssudden blurts out, into the roaring ssilence, a promise of how much of It they would sell, almosst as if they were goosed... but did they ssay WHEN in the next four or so years they would ssell It, hmmm?

If the price of It does go down, we'll ssimply buy ssome more!!

...more papergold = more chances of a default?...

...the delirious debt-ridden patient needs more...

...the placebo-gold is having less effect...

...and the patient is sstarting to twitch...

S.
Liberty Head
(11/21/2004; 18:54:13 MDT - Msg ID: 126615)
Re: James Turk on WGC Gold Fund

Thank you Chris Powell for posting the link.
I think Turk went straight to the heart of the matter. This new fund will function as a gold demand reservoir.
It's another dam, up stream of physical gold.
Unlike the Federal debt limit illusion, this dam will not have an infinite capacity.
This simply means we have sometime to enjoy a couple more cervazas before the dam breaks.

Best Wishes
Liberty Head
(11/21/2004; 19:20:43 MDT - Msg ID: 126616)
Re: Paper Avalanche

You make excellent points about the ETF.

The new ETF certainly is a market participation vehicle, but the market this vehicle participates in is controlled by this very vehicle. The fund will be tracking the price of gold without affecting the price of gold.
It's a gelding not a stud.

A second point is, it is possible for a few Joe Sixpacks to use 401k funds to buy physical gold.
Some 401k plans allow loans. Of course there is a risk here but some Joe Sixpacks can handle it.

"The government gets the benefit of the ETF being in a higher tax bracket.."
The government benifits only at the expense of freedom.
It has no freedom to offer, only guns, cages and chains.

Best Wishes
Great Albino Bat
(11/21/2004; 20:51:04 MDT - Msg ID: 126617)
Maiden Fan - I'm flattered you ask my opinion on CEF.

Maiden Fan: I have nothing at all against CEF - Central Fund of Canada. I think they are strictly on the level.

Why do I say this?

Because they have been around a long time, and through tough times as well as better times, like the present.

Because they are NOT a product of WGC, which is an organization that has never clearly come out and stated the obvious truth, that gold is a most important vehicle for the preservation of wealth in a world drunk on paper money.
No, the WGC is ANTI-GOLD, but of course, subtly so.

A Fund hatched by the WGC is damned from the start, in my opinion, and I'll hve nothing to do with it.

But, forget my opinion. Jim Turk, whom I have known for many years, is trustworthy and knowledgeable, and he says, "Stay away from the GLD shares." We have no way of knowing for sure, if the gold is there: defective auditing. In the words of the GLD prospectus, the purpose of the fund is a share that "tracks the price of gold". Do you want that, or do you want TO OWN PHYSICAL GOLD?

Also, the timing is suspiciously coincident with problems in containing the price of gold. Why NOW?

My mistrust of anything touted by Wall Street boyz is total.

Buy CEF, as far as I know, it's OK. Better, buy goldgrams from Goldmoney - Jim Turk's outfit. But BEST OF ALL, buy from our hosts and get those gold coins and bars in your own hands.

As a plump Tehuana mama said to friend of mine recently, when asked why she was buying silver coins: "Because my papa always said that was a good thing to buy." And when asked if she was not afraid of thieves raiding her home, she replied: "I'd rather have the thieves steal from me, than the BANKERS."
(True story)

The GAB
Cytek
(11/21/2004; 20:57:34 MDT - Msg ID: 126618)
Tokyo Stocks Plunge; Dollar Trades Lower
Tokyo Stocks Plunge More Than 2 Percent; U.S. Dollar Trades Just Above 4 1/2-Year Low Vs. Yen

TOKYO (AP) -- Tokyo stocks plunged more than 2 percent Monday morning and the U.S. dollar traded just above its four-and-half-year lows against the yen, following a dollar selloff in New York on concerns over the swollen U.S. trade deficit.

The Nikkei Stock Average of 225 issues fell 290.88 points, or 2.62 percent, to end morning trading at 10,791.96. On Friday, the index gained 0.42 point, or negligible in percentage terms.

The dollar bought 103.29 yen at 11 a.m. local time Monday, down 0.89 yen from late Friday in Tokyo but above the 103.11 yen it bought in New York later that day -- its lowest in four and half years.

Tokyo stocks plunged due to the dollar's weakness against the yen. A weak dollar hurts Japan's economy by making Japanese exports to the United States more expensive, and erodes exporters' overseas earnings when they are converted back to yen. Technology and exporter issues fell in the morning.

The dollar fell to four-and-a-half-year lows against the yen, and came within an all-time low against the euro, after the top U.S. central banker said at a conference in Frankfurt that the United States shouldn't be "complacent" about the growth of its current-account deficit.

Swollen trade deficits eventually could threaten the U.S. economy by souring foreign appetites to invest in the United States, U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan warned.

"It seems persuasive that, given the size of the U.S. current account deficit, a diminished appetite for adding to dollar balances must occur at some point," Greenspan said. That, in turn, could elevate the cost of financing the deficit, he said.

The dollar slid sharply in response, although Greenspan played down concerns about an imminent crisis in financing the current-account deficit and reminded his audience that central bank interventions had no clear impact on foreign exchange rates.

Cytek
Lets see if the POG touches $450 before monday's comex close.
Maiden Fan
(11/21/2004; 21:58:30 MDT - Msg ID: 126619)
GAB - Central Fund (CEF)
Thanks GAB, I also think it's on the level. It is still paper however, and I'll buy physical from now on. Looking back on the whole Roth IRA thing, I believe these IRA vehicles were just another dollar support mechanism designed to siphon away your dollar liquidity into a lock-box where you couldn't spend it for 30 or so years. The government received up-front tax revenues, tied-up dollars which would have added to inflationary pressures, and figured by the time you were able to access your money without penalty, the dollar would be worthless anyway.
ski
(11/21/2004; 23:35:33 MDT - Msg ID: 126620)
IRA's and the like...


Some recent talk on the pitfalls of IRA's and the like.

After taking a good look at these programs over the years, I came away the sense that they are often best described as the equivalent of a pair of Chinese handcuffs. They feature an ATTRACTIVE and EASY way to put your money in ..... but trying to get it OUT on your terms ... was impossible! PM's make much better sense.
Belgian
(11/22/2004; 01:33:36 MDT - Msg ID: 126621)
PA > allow me to reflect on your ETF optimism
The WGC as promotor of the ETFs, is financed by goldmines !
Is there a yearly over-supply on new gold from these goldmines as to create gold-uptaking ETFs !?
Does the gold-promoting WGC know that it suffice to support the goldprice for having an instant goldrush ?

The WGC knows very well what is the enormous fundamental difference between the storage of one's wealth, physically in a vault, and the price-playing of any paper.
Physical gold wealth property stays where it is and paper flies with the winds. Huge difference...!

ETF-paper is Another effort to liquidify the existing paper-goldmarket. The increasing uptake of physical gold-wealth into strong ownership is solidifying the managed goldmarket. Taking gold, physically, out of the market is drying up the liquidity and disturbing (blocking) the goldprice management.

Goldmines hate the outlined gold-is wealth-future !!! Cfr. the political embroglio of Harmony/Norilsk/Gold Fields/Iamgold-affairs.

Note that Euroland is working hard to take new measures as to protect the savings of their aging population. Big warnings about more loses to come from loses in financial speculation...paper-gamblings. Those old Krugerrands are in the process of being handed to the next generation of gold-holders. We experimented 20 years ago with gold-certificates and VAT on gold...very briefly ! Goldmine-paper is going out of fashion overhere.

ETF will be like the gold in Fort Knox...UNKNOWN ...and subject to "re-classification" at convenience !

The financial industry always hated physical gold and will continue to do so. The storage of wealth tangibles, takes out the industry's needed (for profits) liquidity and price fluctuations. That's why the financial industry liked to collude with the state's gold-management.

The story is the same with interest rates...the rent-price of fiat debt. Idem dito for stockprices in their function of virtual (fractional) collateral.

Think about the enormous devastating effects on the global housing market that houseprice stabilisation would have.
Prices MUST always go UP as to keep pace with the "needed" permanent fiat depreciation (PFD). ONLY the goldprice must NOT signal this very fundamental PFD. Because gold is by definition, still the most universal "naked" wealth indicator. That's why gold has been wrapped in paper. That's why it must remain "associated" with paper...more precisely the universalising dollar-paper and all its derivatives. The dollar wants gold to stay a dollar-derivative. In sharp contrast with the euro-concept.

You are never going to hear this story from the WGC ! Logical, for very obvious reasons, no ? Gold (oil and many other things) are "politically" loaded !!!
The general public's attention must be diverted from those political aspects, at any cost and by any means ! Once goldaccumulators start massively holding gold coins in their closed fists...it is game over for the controllers !!!
Think about the oil-price and the pricing power of the oil-owners (states).

We are not together here to make money (fiat debt) on gold. We exchange ideas about the freedom-content that gold could/might/shall have. We constantly put the probabilities of more individual freedom on the balance. Think, this is an honest cause.

It remains my opinion that ALL papergold (gold-derivatives) do stand in the way to freegold. I wish that the old goldmarket should be put upside down : Lots of physical goldtrade and holdings...very little papergold. NOT the other way around. Physical gold should say what our wealth is and not the paperbergs.

The cost of acquiring and holding and hiding a permanent appreciating, high value, goldcoin is NIL !!! The worries about hectic (managed) papergold are a constant pain in....!

Belgian
(11/22/2004; 03:20:51 MDT - Msg ID: 126622)
President Bush supports a "strong" dollar....
...Because the dollar is "condemned" to remain "virtually" strong as to keep the globe exporting "into" the dollar.
That's why the US-deficits are condemned to increase up until the dollar-system crashes and is replaced.

Gold, "knows" that this is happening !

Oil, "knows" it too !

The above is the main reason why the dollar exchange rate MUST remain concertedly managed.

Thanks Mister President, for having confirmed once again, what is really going on. Thanks for making us understand better, why gold behaves as it is.

Euro-zone has an increased trade surplus for sept. Who is actually taking the brunt of the dollar debacle !?
Boilermaker
(11/22/2004; 05:33:17 MDT - Msg ID: 126623)
ETF - The Big "Sweep"
Here's the real purpose of GLD and other gold ETF's. It is a vehicle for sweeping free market gold off the market using OPM (other peoples money) into 10,000 ounce baskets and putting it into the waiting hands of the subcustodians (who happen to be bullion banks) so that they will be able to get out from under gold loans for which they now have no gold. It will be recyled from the bullion banks back to the central banks from whom they had borrowed it. A very slick scam with a lot of investor appeal.
Caradoc
(11/22/2004; 06:24:54 MDT - Msg ID: 126624)
Crystal ball report
In Mahendra's absence, my hunch is that POG will have approached $450 by Wednesday. Further, the worker-level trolls of the ESF are mostly GS-14s who have already filled out their annual leave slips for the Friday after Thanksgiving. So, there'll be nobody home to make recommendation on whether/when to smash POG. We might even see something approximating an unmanipulated market for that half day. If you're playing the gold paper game, late Friday morning could be a good day to pull money off the table. The trolls will be back at work on Monday, so expect an 0930 smashdown (a good time to convert those paper profits into the real thing).

Caradoc
Boilermaker
(11/22/2004; 06:53:23 MDT - Msg ID: 126625)
ETF - Comex Strategy
Further to my last message and in answer to PA's point that an ETF is not needed to manage the gold price because Comex has been doing the job nicely; The two schemes are working the market in combination, Comex manages the POG while the ETF sweeps physical gold into the hands of the bullion bankers using OPM. An ingeneous combo to bail out "The System".
I can't see how any astute goldbug who believes there has been price management of gold over the past several years could believe in this ETF. This is a financial Santa with a bag full of paper.
Knallgold
(11/22/2004; 09:06:17 MDT - Msg ID: 126626)
ETF
We have been taught about the fault in the Comex Goldpricingmechanism.The ETF is per definition linked to this wrongly found price.More (Boilermaker) proof of a snake feeding on its own tail.

And if its designed for participation of those entities not allowed to buy physical-why not change legislation and ALLOW them buy the physical?(rhetoric question)

And,if they really wanted them in,tell Joe Q sixpack how easy it is to buy Goldcoins (call Marie...)
Ned
(11/22/2004; 11:21:09 MDT - Msg ID: 126627)
Gold ETF/GLD thingy
I've got a question about this new, supposed paper gold ETF. I noticed somewhere in my readings over the weekend a reference to Chris Thompson, Chairman of the WGC. A couple to few years ago Chris Thompson was hailed as the be-all, end-all CEO of Goldfields, the huge SA non-hedger. Everyone respected his work at Goldfields and were delighted that he was heading to the WGC. It was hoped at the time that Mr. Thompson would 'turn' them around.

So I notice all the huffy and puffy complaining about this paper ETF thing and wonder if Chris Thompson had a hand in its conception and/or is it really as 'paperish' as some make it out to be.

I ask this question because it has been surmissed by a few that James Turk has "an axe to grind" because the new ETF directly competes with his "Goldmoney". Which of the 2 'papers' are more 'paperish'?

Thanks.
Ned
(11/22/2004; 11:27:17 MDT - Msg ID: 126628)
GAB & your followers
I notice the questions posed to you about CEF (Central Fund). Is this 'fund' not just another clone of an index or an ETF? CEF has been on a dive as of late and I wonder if the 'paperish' slant to it is being exposed or why would this 'product' be in freefall while gold is bouncing happily along?

I notice that the CDN dollar has had great strength but I don't think that explains the weakness (CEF.A.TO) entirely especially since it has also experienced weakness in the U.S. as CEF(AMEX).

Is it possible that the rush to physical may be in its infancy?

TIA
exponential
(11/22/2004; 11:56:07 MDT - Msg ID: 126629)
Economists who got rich
Last Friday, the Great Albino Bat posed the question:

"Can anyone mention a noted economist that became rich, and died rich?"

Ricardo and Keynes.

----------------

"David Ricardo was the son of a Jewish financier who had migrated to London from Holland. The family was of Portuguese origin. At the age of twelve David went to work for his father, but he was disowned when he converted from Judaism to marry a Quaker. Ricardo made a fortume on the London stock exchange and retired young. He purchased an estate and a seat in Parliament, from which he would on painful occasion expound his views. Ricardo's estate - Gatcombe - is now the residence of Princess Anne.

"Despite his fabulous practical success as a businessman, as an economist Ricardo emphasized abstract theory. He analyzed growth and income distribution and was a major architect of the classical system of thought, from which both Marxism and modern conservative economics have developed."

Source - Modern International Economics by Wilfred Ethier, page 6

----------------

"Most people recognize John Maynard Keynes for his contributions to economic theory. In addition to being a great macroeconomic thinker, Keynes was also a legendary investor. Proof of his investment prowess can be found in the performance record of the Chest Fund at King's College in Cambridge, England. During his 18-year stewardship, the Chest Fund achieved an average annual return of 13.2 percent, at a time when the overall U.K. market return remained basically flat. Considering that the time period included both the Great Depression and World War II, we would have to say that Keynes's performance was extraordinary.

"Keynes kept his holdings focused on just a few companies. In 1934, the same year that Security Analysis was published, Keynes wrote to a colleague, explaining his reasoning: 'It is a mistake to think one limits one's risks by spreading too much between enterprises about which one knows little and has no reason for special confidence... One's knowlege and experience are definitely limited and there are seldom more than two or three enterprises at any given time in which I personally feel myself entitled to put full confidence.'

"That letter may the the first piece ever written about focus investing."

Source - The Essential Buffet by Robert Hagstrom, pages 163-66

In other words, Keynes anticipated Warren Buffet's investment strategy, or at least part of it. He didn't just manage the college fund, he also made a fortune for himself.


Stevens
(11/22/2004; 11:58:48 MDT - Msg ID: 126630)
MY Take: On Current Account Deficits


Back around 1870, the US started running trade surpluses. In the mid 1970s, a hundred years later, we began running deficits. I remember remarking to a friend that a good case could be made that we may be running deficits for the next hundred years. At this point, 30 years later, I have no reason to change that my assumption. It is hard to get one's mind around how long the swings are from trade equilibrium to trade deficits, to trade surpluses and back to equilibrium again. One must think in centuries, not years.

We are just beginning the long process of returning to equilibrium. I know of no way to get there except through the following. Either the dollar must decline, the price index must decline, or trade restrictions against US exports must decline dramatically or be eliminated (all three would be preferable).

Under a gold standard the value of the dollar is fixed. As we run a trade deficit, money leaves the country, our price level goes down and our trading partners, whose money supplies are increasing, goes up. At some point, our goods become so attractive to our trading partners, and theirs so expensive to us, the process is reversed and money and trade flows will trend back to equilibrium.

In today's world of floating exchange rates and mercantilist trade policies where all governments want to export but not import, and where central banks continue ot accumulate dollars, we have come to the point where it is obvious that the pendulum must swing back towards equilibrium. What will that journey entail?

Barring an outright crisis (on which I will let others speculate), the future is going to change dramatically over decades to come. Here's my take on it.

As the dollar falls, as it must, the US import sector will become more and more impoverished, but the export sector will boom. Commodity prices to Americans will continue to rise along with import prices, the cost of doing business abroad, and the cost of tourism abroad. The Chinese currency will be revalued upward (probably in 2005) leading to an increase of exports of American goods into China and a reduction of their exports to the US.

Shortages will develop as all nations scramble for limited resources. Prices will rise in some areas and fall in others depending on which part of the economy effects you. When the US hits its next recession the path of least resistance will cause U.S. prices to fall, even as commodity prices rise or stay about even.

But through all of this there comes a self adjusting healing process. With dollar and price levels going down, and imports declining while exports rise, the excesses will be wrung out and we will drift back toward equilibrium.

Now back to my first point. This will take a very, very long time. As I said, maybe another 70 years. The question is -- how smooth a transition is possible? This depends on the degree of correct policies implemented by policy makers around the world.

To the degree that we have greater free markets and less protectionism, the transition will be smoother. To the degree we don't, the road will be much bumpier and could lead to those crisies that others fear. In any case, investors would do well to protect against higher import and commodity prices, a lower dollar, and event risk -- which could come out of anywhere at any time. A gold position commensurate with the times would be a good place to start.
Boilermaker
(11/22/2004; 12:09:12 MDT - Msg ID: 126631)
CEF
The Central Fund of Canada is substantially different than the ETF sponsored by the WGC at least in its custodial arrangements. This information is available in their annual report.
The reason for the recent drop in share price was due to competition for gold-seeking $ that have a new game to play. Until recently CEF shares have carried a 5 to 10% premium over its gold and silver asset base. At last calculation the premium is about 2%. In addition, fifteen million additional shares were sold recently and the price of silver which makes up nearly half of the funds asset base has been weak relative to gold.

All that said, you must realize that the fund's assets are deposited in the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce. Since the Canadian Government has seen fit to sell virtually all of its gold one must consider the distinct possibility that this government may see fit to confiscate this bundle of bullion when the paper stuff hits the fan.
eddiebhoy
(11/22/2004; 12:17:42 MDT - Msg ID: 126632)
someons getting worried....
please forgive me folks but i just had to cut and paste this story from the new yorker so grab a beer sit back and enjoy as we are a dillusioned bunch of 'classic cranks'
following an ancient idea with no future

isnt it nice of them to let us know.....


One of the perks of stardom is the indulgence of unusual requests. Ozzy Osbourne used to require the presence backstage of an ear, nose, and throat specialist who could administer B-12 shots. Guns N� Roses demanded Dom P�rignon and Wonder Bread. For Van Halen, it was a bowl of M&M's�with all the brown ones removed. Then, there was Bette Midler, who, when she toured Europe in the late seventies, insisted on being paid not in dollars or pounds or francs but in gold. It was a fashionable extravagance. With inflation devastating the value of national currencies, Western economies in the dumps, and oil prices soaring because of tension in the Middle East, anxious investors had fled to the security that supposedly only gold could provide. An ounce of gold, at its peak, in 1980, was worth eight hundred and fifty dollars.

That was a long time ago, and, as far as we know, Usher has yet to pester his promoters for Krugerrands, but economic worries have recently prompted investors to start coveting gold again. The weakness of the dollar, America's enormous trade deficit, and war in the Middle East have sent the price of gold up forty per cent in the past two years, and last week it hit a sixteen-year high of four hundred and forty-five dollars an ounce. In the speculative imagination, gold remains the best hedge against Armageddon.

It also remains a testament to the tenacity of popular delusion. What is gold, after all? Strictly speaking, it's a commodity, like oil, steel, or lead, albeit not an especially useful one. There's a steady but small demand for gold as an industrial product�for consumer electronics, computers, and dental work�and as jewelry, particularly in India, which now buys twenty per cent of the world's annual gold output. And there's a steady supply. Since 1970, world production has nearly doubled, thanks to mining companies that tear up mountainsides every year in search of it.

Yet the price of gold has little to do with these two variables. To true believers�known as "gold bugs"�the idea that gold is a commodity is rank heresy. They prefer to think of gold as the planet's most reliable currency, a stable, ineradicable source of wealth, whose value will endure no matter what comes to pass.

It's hard to square this faith with what has happened to the price of gold in the past two decades. It has been a terrible investment. Even with the recent surge, it's up zero per cent since 1988, while the S. & P. 500 has almost quadrupled. Gold's buying power has plummeted, too. In 1980, ten ounces of gold would have bought you a nice car. Today, it would get you a nice bike. The gold bugs have a handy explanation: gold is a victim of market manipulation and bad press. Wall Street and the world's central banks are, apparently, "enemies of gold," holding gold prices down in order to prop up people's confidence in the paper-money system. One gold bug even filed a lawsuit against various government officials and big banks alleging a conspiracy to sabotage gold prices with surreptitious sales. Another compared a skeptical journalist to Joseph Goebbels.

The gold bugs are classic cranks, but their obsession is rooted in experience; we've all been conditioned�by history, by myth, by Mr. T�to think of gold as money. James Bond never had to contend with a Nickelfinger, and Bette Midler would probably not have accepted payment in palladium or cowrie shells or cattle. The world's central banks and the International Monetary Fund still have vaults full of bullion, even though currencies are no longer backed by gold. Governments hold on to it as a kind of magic symbol, a way of reassuring people that their money is real.

So there's a little bit of the gold bug in all of us. Still, in a world of "swaptions" and strips gold's allure is increasingly atavistic. The idea of gold as a platonic currency, universally valuable across time and space, reflects a basic distrust of markets, a fear that in a world of paper money wealth is just an illusion. For gold bugs, paper money turns us all into Wile E. Coyote�we're running on air, and we'll plummet once we look down and realize there's nothing holding us up. The gold bug's apocalyptic mentality maintains that someday the global economy will look down and the result will be chaos. Gold is the only thing that will still be valuable after the bottom drops out.

Yet gold is valuable only as long as we collectively agree that it is. It may be soft, shiny, durable, and rare, but it has no more intrinsic value than feldspar or quartz. Just because it has a long history of being used as money doesn't mean that it has a future. In the end, our trust in gold is no different from our trust in a piece of paper with "one dollar" written on it. The value of a currency is, ultimately, what someone will give you for it�whether in food, fuel, assets, or labor. And that's always and everywhere a subjective decision. Gold or not, we're always just running on air. You can't be rich unless everyone else agrees that you're rich.

Gold investors like to pride themselves on being sober realists. The irony is that buying gold is the purest form of speculation. If you invest in a company, you're investing in machinery, technology, and people. If you buy steel, you're investing in something that people need. But if you invest in gold you're basically betting that someday a greater fool will come along, who thinks gold is worth more than you do. You're buying into a collective hallucination�exactly what those dot-com investors did in the late nineties. One could say that gold is the biggest, most durable bubble in history. Someday, even this one may pop.


i hope your all ashamed of yourself.....

personally im distraught

hers the link

http://newyorker.com/talk/content/?041129ta_talk_surowiecki

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(11/22/2004; 12:25:51 MDT - Msg ID: 126633)
... In Order to Form a More Perfect Union... (between You and Your Savings)
http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html

Arm yourself with knowledge
Bound Spirit
(11/22/2004; 13:33:27 MDT - Msg ID: 126634)
RE: Eddiebhoy - some one is getting worried - and the New Yorker
Let me see, what would I rather speculate on: 1) that human beings will someday transcend their own selfish proclivities (i.e that very thing that propels all life forward on the planet) and become self sacrificing altruists or 2) that when hope for the truth of 1) fads, reality will reaffirm itself � and then, partly in the form of Gold as money (i.e. because its rare, fungible, hard to get, etc.).

Those who believe in government, central banks and fiat are romantic utopianists who need to believe in 1). Those who believe in 2) understand history and human nature � the only question they struggle with is at which point are we on the utopia growth and decay curve.
TownCrier
(11/22/2004; 13:58:13 MDT - Msg ID: 126635)
eddiebhoy's New Yorker article
Pure propaganda.

In the day's before the internet, propaganda like that in the mainstream media was an effective device of crowd-control or herd-management because it could easily stand unchallenged. The most you could do back then as a more fully informed reader was to write off a letter to the editor and hope for publication. Fat chance of that ever happening, as it would go against their reason for running the anti-gold propaganda in the first place.

One of the reasons MK established this USAGOLD website was to provide more highly visible public countermeasures against these one-sided anti-gold diatribes from the prevailing financial brotherhood.

Think for yourself about this unique asymmetric treatment leveled always against gold and none other. Ask yourself why -- why is it necessary? Why do they trouble themselves? Is it some sort of humanitarian effort by way of providing a "public service announcement", or is there a hidden agenda that's being forwarded?

Why have you never seen similar mainstream rants against stock ownership?

Against bond ownership?

Against silver ownership?

Against platinum ownership?

Against coal ownership?

Against corn ownership?

Against car ownership?

Against house ownership?

It is only ever against gold. Again, why... why should they take the trouble to notice where your investment interests are? And even upon noticing that a growing penchant for gold is afoot in the public psyche, why should they care? And again, why is there no corresponding worry and related propaganda delivered against public trends in ownership of any of the above-mentioned items? It's only ever against gold.

We've said it here before, and we'll keep saying it until everyone understands. This is the classic replay of the old-time banking days where a bank manager stood anxiously in his lobby wringing his hands while a bank-run was underway. He would do and say everything in his power to convince his customers to be satisfied with their accounts as is -- that is, in the form of an account. Under no circumstances did he want them to take their funds back into their own hands. This was back when gold was used to define and coin our national currency, and the banking system -- which borrows short-term money from its customers' deposits and re-lends it long-term to other customers -- couldn't not survive if there was a sudden demand for the gold that it had so carefully redistributed into dematerialized derivatives of gold; i.e., IOUs.

And even though the gold-coin standard for our money was eliminated in 1933 and the gold-definition standard was eliminated in 1971-73, that didn't stop the bankers, notably the bullion bankers, from continuing their borrow-short and lend-long derivatizing operations. It is the bullion banks, the very same institutions that make their living by marginalizing physical gold, who are at the root of the propaganda to suppress public desire for physical gold ownership. They must discourage gold ownership because it squeezes their liquidity and drives them toward bankruptcy.

The tightness of the physical gold market makes them desperate, and that is why you see otherwise inexplicable one-sided anti-gold rants put forth in publications like the New Yorker at times like this.

And in response, in times like this, I especially like further to put the screws to them and step up my own program of regular gold purchases.

I invite every one of our veteran posters with a spare moment on their hands to each pick a sentence or two, or a whole paragraph, from the article and expose it for the bunk that it is -- thus helping our new visitors to understand how thin and flimsy is the floor that these bullion banking anti-gold propagandists attempt to stand upon. Then, give USAGOLD-Centennial a call for gold and help me to hit the bullion bankers where it hurts them the most by squeezing the gold "out" of their stacks of ledgers and bringing the preciously scarce bit of it into the full light of the sun where its fair market value can be fairly seen.

R.
White Rose
(11/22/2004; 14:45:06 MDT - Msg ID: 126636)
New Yorker: my take
There is one part of the article that needs to be carefully addressed. This is also found in the book "Gold: History of an Obssession". And that is the puzzlement of looking at a big pile of gold (or imagining such a sight) and wondering what it is all for?

So there is a big pile of gold. Why are so many people fighting, dying, working for that pile of metal? It seems so useless, so still, and unproductive.

Instead, I should buy something productive -- such as a factory. Indeed, my wife wanted to know why I wanted to buy gold and take the money out of the productive sphere, and sequester the money into a private pile (here there are echos of Freud).

But the reality is so much different. I like to think of gold as the sum and total of all the agreements, contracts, and deals made with gold, and then the sum of the agreements made with those agreements. I can look up lease rates for 1 month, 6 months, 1 year. I know how people plan to value gold in the future. I can examine the valuation of gold mines, the futures sales, options. All the exchange rates also tell me about gold. It is not a hallucination, but an essestial part of the fabric of every financial dealing.

Further, I argue that with the mismanagement of currencies, there is way too much money invested in "productive pursuits" at the present moment. If I were to pick any type of money yielding enterprise, I suspect that the price of entry would be very high.

Further, when the money madness collapses, it will be as if money were not in style anymore. At that point, everyone will want productive capital. I am doing a mitzvah (a good deed) by withholding my money from the present madness, and holding it in a form that can help rebuild the system.

It is too early to tell whether I would regard a subscription to the New Yorker as something worth buying when I am trying to help rebuild our economy.

Topaz
(11/22/2004; 14:45:16 MDT - Msg ID: 126637)
Whilst ever the illusion of inflation persists ...
...they don't have a problem!
Make that a big "ILLUSION"
The desire to hold Gold in physical form, in ratio's above an accepted limit and as indicated by declining LBMA volumes, is a sign of much deeper systemic deflationary pressures.
If Gold runs to $600 and DX 50 (E300) this illusion is maintained, the Cabal knockers will be vindicated and the wheels keep turning ... "Inflation has reared it's ugly head" ... HA!

THINK about the implications if this DOESN'T transpire!! and ACT accordingly.
J-Bullion
(11/22/2004; 14:48:43 MDT - Msg ID: 126638)
New Yorker Article
Here's my favorite sentence from the article:

"Even with the recent surge, it's up zero per cent since 1988, while the S. & P. 500 has almost quadrupled."

I love that sentence. That's classic. Take a time period that fits your side of the argument. Why not pick since 2000? Or take the returns from 1971 till now on gold? No...we get from 1988 till the present to give you a distorted picture. Anyone with a study of business cycles knows that certain asset classes are either in bull or bear markets at all periods of time....and in bear markets you are best to avoid them. Well, the major trends changed around 2000, and it's financial suicide to stick with the asset class that is set to underperform for the next 10-20 yrs. ( the bust is proportional to the preceding boom ). Anyway, it matters little to the educated who can see through the junk that the sentence above illustrates...along with the rest of the article. But I do feel sorry for the people who have no understanding of the monetary system, history, etc.... who will fail to take appropriate action to protect themselves financially until it is too late.
Aristotle
(11/22/2004; 14:48:52 MDT - Msg ID: 126639)
I'll take Another tack
Instead of choosing from among the article's many rotten apples, I'll just pick the very few that survived Surowiecki's foul withering wind.


---------"[in the late seventies] With inflation devastating the value of national currencies, Western economies in the dumps, and oil prices soaring because of tension in the Middle East, anxious investors had fled to the security that supposedly only Gold could provide. An ounce of Gold, at its peak, in 1980, was worth eight hundred and fifty dollars."

"That was a long time ago, but economic worries have recently prompted investors to start coveting Gold again. The weakness of the dollar, America's enormous trade deficit, and war in the Middle East have sent the price of Gold up forty per cent in the past two years, and last week it hit a sixteen-year high of four hundred and forty-five dollars an ounce."

"There's a steady but small demand for Gold as an industrial product�for consumer electronics, computers, and dental work�and as jewelry, particularly in India, which now buys twenty per cent of the world's annual Gold output. And there's a steady supply. Since 1970, world production has nearly doubled, thanks to mining companies that tear up mountainsides every year in search of it. [What??? Not a word about how many more mountainsides have fallen under the quest for coal, copper, and steel and lumber????] Yet the price of Gold has little to do with these two variables."

"...think of Gold as the planet's most reliable [...] stable, ineradicable [...] wealth..."

"...Gold is a victim of market manipulation and bad press."

"The world's central banks and the International Monetary Fund still have vaults full of bullion, even though currencies are no longer backed by Gold."

"So there's a little bit of the Gold bug in all of us. Still, in a world of "swaptions" and strips, Gold's allure is increasingly atavistic. The idea of Gold as a platonic currency, universally valuable across time and space, reflects a basic distrust of markets, a [justifiable] fear that in a world of paper money wealth is just an illusion."

"The value of a currency is, ultimately, what someone will give you for it�whether in food, fuel, assets, or labor. And that's always and everywhere a subjective decision. [...] we're always just running on air."

"Gold investors like to pride themselves on being sober realists."-------


OK, fine. So what's the problem? Tell me, in the balance, when has any lasting harm ever come from somebody beaing a realist?

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle
Rimh
(11/22/2004; 15:03:19 MDT - Msg ID: 126640)
New Yorker article
The author should have made dollars the topic of his article when he states "is valuable as long as we collectively agree that it is."

What I find amusing is that he tells us that "the world's central banks and the IMF still have vaults full of bullion" but then glosses over the reason its there - to reeassure people that their "money" is real. He goes on to discuss things like the distrust of markets, fear of paper money wealth, etc. without explaining why those fears exist. What happened in 1929? Better yet, what happened to the Weimar Republic in Germany in the 1920's? And what of all the other documented cases of paper money returning to it's intrinsic value of zero because the government can't keep its hands off the printing presses to pay off debts without incurring any real costs? And all through those times, gold remained a store of value. In fact, I have yet to hear of any time period in history when gold ever had an intrinsic value of zero.

Boilermaker
(11/22/2004; 16:08:54 MDT - Msg ID: 126641)
Name Your Game
You are given an opportunity by the Big Guy to "take it with you" and come back for another round 1000 years later. He offers the following options (at today's value of $100,000) OK, so I'm cheap.

- common stock in the company of your choice

- currency in the fiat of your choice

- bonds of the country or company of your choice

- real estate of your choice

- commodity of your choice

Which of these offers the best possibility of survival?
otish mountain
(11/22/2004; 16:32:53 MDT - Msg ID: 126642)
New Yorker article
The sad thing about Eddie's article is he believes what he has written and if prompted could write an equally convincing piece on a variety of subjects such as; The Patriot Act is a Good Act, or, Don't Sweat the Cashless Society, or how about, The Embedded Mirco Chip is Painless.

He is not a seeker of truth, he is a servant, he is nothing.
USAGOLD Daily Market Report
(11/22/2004; 17:10:42 MDT - Msg ID: 126643)
Page Update!
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Daily Gold Market Report has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.

Monday market excerpts

The most-active Comex December gold contract settled $2 higher at $449.

Dealers said volume got off to a slow start, but built momentum as the session progressed to top the 100,000-lot level by the end of the day.

The New York session's dominant feature was traders transferring positions from COMEX benchmark December gold into next-active February in before this week's U.S. holiday and in front of December metal deliveries next week, dealers said.

COMEX and NYMEX metals will be closed on Thursday and Friday for U.S. Thanksgiving. Final estimated volume was 120,000 contracts, with 35,475 switches.

Along with the continued weakness in the U.S. currency and crude oil price strength, the proximity of the psychologically significant $450-per-ounce level was one of the major drivers of the market through the day, sources agreed.

However, despite the attractiveness of the $450 mantle, bullion banks were prepared to stand in the way throughout, and poured steady volumes into the market from $448 onward to keep that major goal out of reach.

Dealers agreed that further stretches for the $450 level are likely over the near term as long as the greenback remains on the defensive. But, spurts of profit taking and book squaring are expected Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of the U.S. long weekend for Thanksgiving.

"Everything's there for an attempt at $450, but we might run out of time this week as the week is effectively over by the end of Wednesday and no one wants to leave (book squaring) till the last minute," the floor dealer said.

----(see url for access to full news, 24-hr international newswire, gold price charts)---
Sundeck
(11/22/2004; 17:32:26 MDT - Msg ID: 126644)
New Yorker 1000 years on....
@Boilermaker Msg #126641

Instead of the options you suggest, would you please let me purchase a 1000-year subscription of The New Yorker for $100,000? I know that is a 100% premium on the going rate (although probably not, taking into account delivery charges to my intermediate address), but I figure it is still good value because:

a) Inflation will greatly increase its price in the future, which means I will save all those future dollars,

b) I have great confidence that the magazine will go from strength to strength and still be producing fine articles 1000 years from now,

c) Access to the published archives will be tremendous! Whenever I am bored, I will be able to review the wisdom contained therein ... that should keep me laughing well into my second millenium.

d) Who knows, there may be many more helpful articles to save me from making bad investments in the after-life...

Yep....good value, I reckon!

;-)
mikal
(11/22/2004; 18:09:28 MDT - Msg ID: 126645)
@Sundeck, Boilermaker
I'm still at a loss to figure what could be better than 100 grand in shares in New Yoker's publisher! Platinum? A stockpile of Covergirl makeup? A loaded BMW? Here's a screamer- 100K of K-rands with that springbok and his(her?) innocent deer-in-the-headlights look!
mikal
(11/22/2004; 18:22:38 MDT - Msg ID: 126646)
Brimelow drops a bomb
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BB6C6FF5D%2DB4BF%2D4D4F%2DB3C1%2D69A073FFF4C1%7D&siteid=mktw&dist=Thanks to Chris Powell for this. I would have thought that TPTB in the mainstream media and the government would have taken a break from dropping bunker-busters against the old economic assumptions and status quo thinking. Why can't they leave me alone, a deer-in-the-headlights at peace?
gata@yahoogroups.com Subject: [GATA] John Brimelow: The problem is China, not the dollar -
The End of Bretton Woods II Is Near;
The Problem is China, Not the Dollar�����
By John Brimelow
CBSMarketWatch.com - Monday, November 22, 2004������� ��� Excerpt: "My pet conspiracy theory: The Chinese have been
extremely successful in co-opting elements of the
American economic establishment.
The Treasury likes a reliable buyer of U.S. paper. So
does Wall Street. Importers of Chinese goods are
happy. American businessmen with plants in China
resist change. Buyers of Chinese consumer goods
do not complain. American diplomats dislike
offending this powerful and notoriously touchy
country.
But now, China's policy is harming countries, in Europe
and elsewhere, where the leadership really cares about
the overall national interest.
These foreign leaders will provide the political will that
U.S. leaders have not. The Chinese perpetual motion
machine will be confronted and contained.
The beneficiaries of the Chinese undervaluation free lunch
had better prepare for change. That means importers and
distributors of Chinese goods (think Wal-Mart), sellers of
paper (think U.S. Treasury) and anyone who likes stability
(relative prices will shift -- possibly triggering inflation, depending on the Fed's reaction.)
The collapse of the Second Bretton Woods system will
be sweeping and disruptive.
But ultimately it will be beneficial for the world at large --
and U.S. manufacturers in particular."
exponential
(11/22/2004; 18:30:01 MDT - Msg ID: 126647)
Investing in gold vs. investing in economic activity


White Rose says,

"So there is a big pile of gold. Why are so many people fighting, dying, working for that pile of metal? It seems so useless, so still, and unproductive.

"Instead, I should buy something productive -- such as a factory. Indeed, my wife wanted to know why I wanted to buy gold and take the money out of the productive sphere, and sequester the money into a private pile (here there are echos of Freud)."

Your wife has a point.

Prior to 1971, there was really no such thing as a price of gold. Asking "how much is gold worth?" was like asking "how much is a dollar worth?" or "how long is an inch?" An ounce of gold is an ounce of gold, a dollar is a dollar, and an inch is an inch. You don't measure inches, you use a ruler marked in inches to measure other things.

Therefore, prior to 1971, the question of "investing in gold" vs. "investing in business" could not even be posed. In normal times, gold isn't an investment at all. Prior to 1971, there was really no such concept as "investing in gold." Gold was just money, or equivalent to money, and "investing in gold" was as nonsensical as "investing in dollars." You don't invest in money, you use money to invest in business enterprises and real estate.

Since 1971, the situation is different. These are not normal times. We are living in a world of fiat currencies which are not grounded in physical reality. But we should still be able to use gold as the unit of measurement. Everything else still has a definite price in terms of gold. This includes dollars and other fiat currencies. There still isn't really a price of gold, but there is a "price of dollars." An ounce of gold is still an inch, but a dollar is no longer an inch, it's something that can be measured in inches.

In our present situation, "investing in gold" does have a meaning, but it's somewhat paradoxical. It means withdrawing from the fiat economy, standing on the sidelines, and waiting for the system to collapse, in other words waiting for hyperinflation, at which point the price of fiat money (in terms of gold) goes to zero.

The problem with this is that there is an opportunity cost. If you are "investing" in gold, that means you are not investing in an ongoing business. The financial system has appeared to be on the verge of collapse many times, but so far it has always morphed into a new form and kept going. Maybe in the next crisis it will crash once and for all, maybe not. It has a remarkable ability to reinvent itself. It may be another ten years or more before it finally runs out of tricks. Meanwhile, some people are making a lot of money in the fiat economy. There are more millionaires today than ever before, and more centimillionaires, and more billionaires. Their dollars may be fictional, in some sense, but those fictional dollars can be used to buy real assets.

If you play the game instead of standing on the sidelines, you can have a growing business and an income stream which can be reinvested - and which can be used to live comfortably. Then, if the system does come crashing down, you still have your house and any other tangible property you have bought.

If you buy gold, that's all you have, just the gold. It doesn't generate an income stream which can be spent or reinvested.

Therefore I think the best strategy is to start out making money the way people have always made money, by engaging in some productive activity, and then, if hyperinflation appears to be imminent and unavoidable, you will have the resources to prepare for it. You can use your accumulated fictional dollars to buy real gold, if you decide that's the best thing to do at that point.


YGM
(11/22/2004; 18:57:21 MDT - Msg ID: 126648)
New Yorker.......James Surowiecki
Hey the world needs fools like this 'and' those who follow his advice....If we divide all the known "Physical Gold" among all the bodies on earth we get about .69 grms each....No, better all us 'Cranks' to be counted as few....
Time will show who was foolish and who was wise....YGM
YGM
(11/22/2004; 19:08:44 MDT - Msg ID: 126649)
Investing in Economic Activity.........exponential.........
http://www.google.com/search?sourceid=navclient&ie=UTF-8&client=google&rls=RNWE,RNWE:2004-47,RNWE:en&q=Surprise+currency+devaluationsYes one should try to play the game as long as he/she feels comfort level is right......But then ask a New Zealander or an Argentinian or how many other's who trusted their Gov'ts, if they should have owned Gold for a day of surreal surprise as to what their paper was really worth....YGM

Google search..Surprise Currency Devaluations...1-10 of 8,240 listed finds.
White Rose
(11/22/2004; 19:46:05 MDT - Msg ID: 126650)
I raise a toast to "productive enterprises"
First, I must state that if all the gold in the world were evenly distributed, the result would be about .7 oz per person, not .7 grams. There is a factor of 30 involved, so don't short yourself when the shares are passed out.

Second, I would like to say that everyone's situation varies. I have tried to suggest that others invest their money as I have, and I have gotten no one to follow my lead. There are always details about everyone's personal situation which make following someone else quite difficult.

I can say that In January 2002, I had $650,000 invested in precious metals (phyical and stocks). Today the value is about $1,300,000. Physical went up 50%, stocks up by a factor of 2.9. Once I got a letter from a financial advisor, offering a free consultation. On a lark, I went. I think he soiled his pants once he found out how I was investing.

I have had an interesting life. I once owned my own small business which I had to liquidate. Now I work for the firm that bought the remnants of my company. Both I and my wife work for relatively small salaries. Alas, we are living beyond our means. My investing so aggresively, I am trying to prevent us from having to eat too deeply into our savings.

Right now I do think the dollar is at the edge of a cliff. I do think there will be a mad rush to silver and gold. I am terrified of what will happen to America's middle class, who are deeply leveraged to the "value" of their house and to the carrying capacity of their plastic.

I think I said it quite plainly. Trying to create an honest business in America right now is quite insane. The costs of entry are huge. The returns are tiny. The risks are huge. If I bought a CD on my $650,000 3 years ago I might have $700,000 now instead of 1 point 3 mil.

I think it is real stupid to tell me that precious metals do not return anything. I made 40% compounded annually on my stocks. My aquisition cost for gold was $301 per oz, and $5 per oz for silver. The kicker is that 3 years ago, such a heavy posiiton in precious metals looked crazy. Now it looks quite sane. I am well positioned to reap the bitter harvest in blood, tears, terror, toil and sweat of a second term from George Bush. We can divide into two camps, thos who think gold will be under $1000 at his swearing out ceremony, and those who think it will be above $1000. [How many of you remember the "White House Basement Tapes" album made by National Lampoon. It contained the "swearing out" ceremony of Richard Nixon conducted by Billy Graham. "God D*mn you, Richard Nixon ..."] ahh ... the fond memories of my youth ...

Anyway, when I find advertisements for compter systems that are designed to use the latest in computer graphics to show pet owners what their pets will look like after various styles of haircuts, I truely wonder if anyone will remember how to grow potatoes in their front lawn once Peak Oil ceases to become something to debate about in the New York Times. We all wonder what the future will hold for us. Personally, I am hoping that the phase where we all hide in caves from the killer robots will be quite short. But I do intend to emerge from my hiding with my humor and financial resources intact, ready to build a more de-centralized world.
Chris Powell
(11/22/2004; 20:09:35 MDT - Msg ID: 126651)
GATA dispatch about that New Yorker commentary about gold
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/2561If only its author attempting journalism
instead of mere sneering.


To subscribe to GATA's dispatches, send an e-mail to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com
Liberty Head
(11/22/2004; 21:20:00 MDT - Msg ID: 126652)
Here's to you White Rose

I commend you for your name, your views and your candor.

Best Wishes
Sundeck
(11/22/2004; 21:22:40 MDT - Msg ID: 126653)
Roses are White, Tomatoes are Red, It ain't all over, 'Till yer dead.
Nice little story White Rose...

Like most "investments", timing can be important; and, yes, if one had invested in gold in January 1980, one might be feeling a bit sorry about the gold portion of one's portfolio - but probably not as sorry as one who saved their 1980 bank notes under their bed (in the box with all the Zane Grey Westerns)... those notes would be worth a LOT less...(even assuming the cockroaches hadn't eaten them.) Lord knows, if one had INVESTED them in some shares, they might be worth even less!

It is funny that on the one hand "gold" has such a high profile in the collective psyche (good as gold, a heart of gold, worth its weight in gold, AMEX gold cards, the golden thread of English justice, gold wedding rings, etc etc), but such a low profile amongst modern "investors".

My advice to the New Yorker "journalist" is that whatever money he made from his recent labours, he should take straight down to the local gold dealer (in Denver, of course!) and consolidate it in that which he derides. In America at the moment, that would be a "no-brainer", as you Yankees like to say. It's a bit more complex if you live in other nations, but probably not a lot different over the long term...

....now, back to my tomatoes...and yes, I do have a few potatoes in the front yard (where once was lawn)...

I wonder whether Big Al, the Master of the Universe, will settle for growing roses in his retirement or rich, red tomatoes ... just like old gold bugs: "when the markets are too rough, gold bugs tend their tomatoes!"

When I am 78, the last thing I would want is the responsibility of confronting and controlling the present unfolding financial situation...


Cheers ;-)

Druid
(11/22/2004; 21:23:20 MDT - Msg ID: 126654)
New Yorker Article

"In the speculative imagination, gold remains the best hedge against Armageddon."

Druid: Well, according to a part of this chop piece that tries to represent itself as informed journalism, it's good to know that the most powerful monetary institutions in the world representing the foundation and architecture for modern trade among and within countries have such "speculative" leanings.

I'd like to think that this person knows better and is doing his master's bidding like the serf that he is and doesn't really believe any of this garbage, but then again, I'm sure I'm wrong. What was that cute little saying and I'm sure I've got this one misquoted "Those that are enriched by the Matrix will defend it to the end". Nuff said.

"They prefer to think of gold as the planet's most reliable currency, a stable, ineradicable source of wealth, whose value will endure no matter what comes to pass.

It's hard to square this faith with what has happened to the price of gold in the past two decades. It has been a terrible investment. Even with the recent surge, it's up zero per cent since 1988, while the S. & P. 500 has almost quadrupled."


This little tidbit provides a sound basis that out in the ether of cognitive discourse, there is a domain for negative IQ's. He's got price and value confused and is literally comparing gold ownership, which has been with us as a species since antiquity and has represented MONEY/SAVINGS/WEALTH in some variant or form, with that of INVESTING in the S&P 500. These are separate notions and are therefore not comparable. When I INVEST, I'm taking on risk and uncertainty. When I SAVE I don't want to take on any risk or uncertainty.

For any of you lurkers that are knew to the forum, the ownership of paper instruments whether directly or in the form of an employee plan in the DOW; S&P 500; NASDAQ; 401K; IRA; NBA.... are not SAVINGS vehicles. They are SPECULATIVE vehicles sold and marketed as SAVINGS vehicles in order to dupe you into the most speculative casino in the world. Read the fine print in your entire prospectus for each type of investment. I'm certainly not against speculation but it is extremely important to differentiate between savings and speculation. I don't know how many people that I work with use the word savings in the context of their retirement discussions and plans, when in fact, they're speculating thinking that they are saving. I can only shake my head and walk away. Get ahead of the crowd and start your REAL SAVINGS plan by calling the good folks that provide this forum free of charge.
Gandalf the White
(11/22/2004; 22:20:04 MDT - Msg ID: 126655)
MY "GOLDEN" story ! <;-)
Sir Sundeck said --- (11/22/04; 21:22:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 126653)
"Roses are White, Tomatoes are Red, It ain't all over, 'Till yer dead.
Nice little story White Rose..."

"Like most "investments", timing can be important; and, yes, if one had invested in gold in January 1980, one might be feeling a bit sorry about the gold portion of one's portfolio - but probably not as sorry as one who saved their 1980 bank notes under their bed ---"

===
THAT reminds me of MY story !
I DID START my gold accumulations in 1980 !
The REAL stuff from the EARTH ! AND, I have added some of those old Double Eagles (and other things) to that YELLOW over the years.

At the same time I had an "arrangement" with a friend Banker (is that an oxymoron ?), related to the ADVANCED "purchase" of certain OLD PAPER certificates and NOTES. I never slept better than in the last twenty + years, knowing that my YELLOW was "under my bed", and especially when the Banker friend would call to advise me that some children had opened their deceased parents safety box and wondered if those old CLEVELAND's from 1934 were still any good ? AND what were those YELLOW seals on those other Notes ? The Banker advised them that he knew someone that would wish to buy them !

JUST think of how much those old $1,000. paper promises were worth NOW, in present VALUE!

IF ONLY they had BEEN ABLE TO convert that FORTUNE into YELLOW THEN ! BUT, they did not have THAT OPTION !!
Just think how "lucky", that we are able to make that choice NOW !

GET your YELLOW while you may !
<;-)
Belgian
(11/22/2004; 22:37:03 MDT - Msg ID: 126656)
Some nice news....
Lilliputan land, Belgium, has only one financial guru...Roland Leuschel. We have been flying him in from Portugal, once again. Roland is 75, retired but still hyper active and very well connected. His message has been publicly amplified for all the lilliputans to hear,... unmistakingly loud,clear and simple >>> BUY GOLD !!!
Leuschel is backed by bankers. The public's reaction was...YES, w're gone buy some more...NOW !

It might be of some interest to know that the 10 million Belgians are the second biggest savers of the world. 70.000 � per living soul (average)(BNB-statistics) or the equivalent of 6 Kg of gold/person at present.

I was puzzled by Total's chief (Belgo-French oil company) firm statement that the oilprice would come down to $35 in '05. Up until yesterday when in very orderly markets (EU>US), I spotted something : The POO ran initially brutally up ...and came down when the POG started strengthening, whilst the $-� exchange rate remained flat !?
Is this...more and cheaper oil in exchange for higher goldprices !? I think it is. What an 180� change from the past...more and cheap oil for low priced...available...gold !

This could very well explain why the revaluating euro goldreserves are putting the euro currency into the spotlights against the dollar !?

Watch the �-POG ! Once �350/ounce pierces its holding dome-pattern...we might have a confirmation on a technical price-interpretation of the above possible fundamental ?

In gold we trust. From Brussels.
Belgian
(11/23/2004; 01:07:07 MDT - Msg ID: 126657)
TC : about anti-gold propaganda....
This USA-gold forum has the merit of being one of the best, out of many, dams against anti gold propaganda. Simply, through honest, communicative and "free" education for all interested. This results in a natural anti gold propaganda-immunisation...step by step.

Let's go back briefly to the CB-goldsales hysteria : It becomes clearer by the day that this former frighthening gold event is almost a thing of the past. It was and probably still is a "re-distribution" action by those who were building a Big "Gold-Alliance" ! A "PRO" gold maneuver ! But, unfortunately...most have a very short memory preventing them from connecting the dots along the "gold-trail".

Euroland never ridiculed gold as the Anglo American media do. And still it was Euroland who was supposed to (percepted as) be selling its gold-wealth-reserves into gold-consumption. How terribly "mis"-leading and confusing that period was.

Present and future anti gold propaganda are the remains of irrelevant fights in the backyard. Ignore it by smiling at it. I even don't bother (anymore) reading the New Yorker article. Am glad of being immunized by knowledge/evidence and not as a result of austrich, head in the sand, behavior. Thanks to CPM !

Behind the screens, there are a lot of "pragmatic" things, evolving between the trans-atlantic changing/evolving old alliance (EU-US)!!! Emphasis on "pragmatic". The coming, "new" gold, has a place in this, up until now invisible, evolution. Hope that new visitors to this fine forum, start their own investigation into this important element of the gold equation.

Indeed, Sir Towncrier...taking physical gold in ownership...is an act of individual freedom, rather than the umpthieth act of financial (unproductive) speculation.
Accumulating gold-wealth as one's private property is in the given context of today and the nearby future, an act of prostesting against all embracing deceptive forces. Yes, the financial brotherhood/industry/economy, went that one step too far !!! A growing part of the general public is increasingly percepting this as it was evidenced by the public reactions on the "BUY GOLD" statement of the one and only Belgian guru...who hates to be labelled (pro forma) as a guru. This was not a pro gold propaganda, but a cool message (hint) to the "savers".

The evolving goldprice (re-valuation) will do the rest ...!

The fruits of productive investments (enterprises) must not rot away and need to be "consolidated" into something universal and eternal. And a lot of fruit there is (Trillions)...against very little of available conservation metal wealth (tonnes). As down to earth simple as can be.


jenika
(11/23/2004; 05:41:22 MDT - Msg ID: 126658)
media anti gold sentiments
http://www.couriermail.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5936,11435370%255E3122,00.htmlHere is a link to an article in the Courier Mail in Brisbane Australia that some may find interesting.

The author writes
The gold price will touch US$500 and possibly US$600 within the next 12 to 18 months. Whether it can sustain these levels will be a different story.

It will be interesting to see how Central Banks react if the US dollar continues to melt down. Will they start holding gold again?

As far as I am aware Central Banks never stopped holding gold. I couldnt help myself, I emailed him and gave him the link to where he could find the CB gold reserves listing.

Once again thank you to this forum for everything, and like one of the other posters here, I too grow potatoes. :)



White Rose
(11/23/2004; 06:36:13 MDT - Msg ID: 126659)
The role of debt and the nature of money
Why do dollars have some value? One reason is that quite a few of us have some form of debt or re-occuring financial obligation. If one has signed a 15 year mortgage, has a car payment, and several credit cards, etc. then one really needs dollars to continue their normal life. If someone says, "lets all do an experiment, and use broken red crayons as money", you would probably wonder how this would affect your ability to stay in your house.

Yes, I know that money is created by debt (the banker's secret). But I also maintain that it is debt that keeps it valuable. If all debts were paid off, we would be in a perfect situation to explore other forms of money.

This is not myth. It is the cold hard consequence of the sum and total of all the fiat money-based contracts that have been signed by humanity that obligate us to deliver money from person to person (or to institution).

In the same way, there are debts and obligations involving gold that give gold its value. The reality is that it is these legally binding contracts that give money (and gold) its value, not that gold is shiny or that dollars have "In God we Trust" written on them.

The problem with the New Yorker article is the author is perhaps too well familiar with fiat money, but not familiar with the rents, duties, and obligations involving and surrounding gold.

I know I will get in trouble with the folks who love to start every post with "for 5 thousand years, gold has ...". But think about it. It is the 10-20 thousand ton obligation by those who have sold gold short that are presently giving gold its value. I am waiting for the time when they scramble to meet their obligations.
968
(11/23/2004; 06:48:54 MDT - Msg ID: 126660)
Where do private banks buy their gold ?
Does anyone know where commercial banks buy their gold to provide it to private investors ?
Do they buy from their Central Banks (I thought CB's only hold 12,5 kg bars) or do they buy directly from goldmines ?
968
(11/23/2004; 08:31:15 MDT - Msg ID: 126661)
@ White Rose
Hello WR,

You say "Yes, I know that money is created by debt (the banker's secret)".

Even goverment deficits are part of "money".
In times of financial disasters, the Central Bank has to pour money in the economy. If the goverment is running no deficits at this moment, the CB isn't able to pour money in the system by buying up goverment securities. So, goverment deficits and debt are part of a financial system.

Yet I can't agree on your conclusion that "In the same way, there are debts and obligations involving gold that give gold its value."
I would say ""In the same way, there are debts and obligations involving gold that give gold its trade-value."
Debts and obligations create a CONCEPT OF VALUE, gold remains a REAL ITEM OF VALUE, despite the debts and obligations involving gold.
The problem is that the world only looks at this concepts of value and associates them with wealth.
YGM
(11/23/2004; 09:21:16 MDT - Msg ID: 126662)
US Financial Armageddon...Need Another Wake Up Call!!
http://business.bostonherald.com/businessNews/view.bg?articleid=55356Ecerpt from article re: comments by Stephen Roach...YGM

Snip...On State Street: Economic 'Armageddon' predicted

By Brett Arends
Boston Herald
Tuesday, November 23, 2004

http://business.bostonherald.com/businessNews/view.bg?articleid=55356

Stephen Roach, the chief economist at investment
banking giant Morgan Stanley, has a public reputation
for being bearish.

But you should hear what he's saying in private.

Roach met select groups of fund managers downtown
last week, including a group at Fidelity. His
prediction: America has no better than a 10 percent
chance of avoiding economic "armageddon."

Press were not allowed into the meetings. But the
Herald has obtained a copy of Roach's presentation.
A stunned source who was at one meeting said,
"It struck me how extreme he was -- much more, it
seemed to me, than in public."

Roach sees a 30 percent chance of a slump soon
and a 60 percent chance that "we'll muddle through
for a while and delay the eventual armageddon."

The chance we'll get through OK: one in 10. Maybe.

In a nutshell, Roach's argument is that America's
record trade deficit means the dollar will keep falling.
To keep foreigners buying T-bills and prevent a
resulting rise in inflation, Federal Reserve Chairman
Alan Greenspan will be forced to raise interest rates
further and faster than he wants.

The result: U.S. consumers, who are in debt up to
their eyeballs, will get pounded.

Less a case of "Armageddon," maybe, than of a
"Perfect Storm.

Roach marshalled alarming facts to support his
argument.
.......cont'd @ link
YGM
(11/23/2004; 09:33:15 MDT - Msg ID: 126663)
Roachs Comments....
will spread like wildfire among the already nervous Financial world...If ever a trigger were pulled for potential panic attacks this is 'ONE' of them (many to come)
...There's only one escape hatch to get thru, it's Gold and what a scene if trillions of dollars head for the same door at once....
The times just get more interesting......Nice to sit on sidelines and watch the debacle unfold.....YGM
YGM
(11/23/2004; 09:37:54 MDT - Msg ID: 126664)
GATA's Watchdog....Chris Powell
Thanks for the many gata email alerts....It's the best watchdog on the block....ie: the Stephen Roach comments...
Regards....YGM

PS: GATA makes mail checking an anticipated adventure these days...KR
YGM
(11/23/2004; 09:52:07 MDT - Msg ID: 126665)
Won't be long now til the "Confiscation" word will pop up @ Forums...
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/willis/willis112304.htmlas it always does when Gold rears it's head and Paper Default talk returns anew....Gold & Silver Coins are and always will be the ultimate store in your own style of safekeeping, not within the reach of the system....Does and will history repeat???......Gold in the "Creek" Bank or the 'Flower Bed'seems safer to me...YGM
Gandalf the White
(11/23/2004; 10:11:17 MDT - Msg ID: 126666)
NEW LOW on the $US !
http://charts-d.quote.com:443/1002980432830?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=DX00Y∬erval=10&Ht=600&Wd=800&Display=2&Study=MA&Param1=13&Param2=0&Param3=&FontSize=10BROKE through into the 0.82 level !
DIVE, DIVE, DIVE !
GO YELLOW !!!
<;-)
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(11/23/2004; 11:01:30 MDT - Msg ID: 126667)
A risk-free request, helping you enter the gold market with grace and confidence.
http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html

Get a head start on the gold market!
YGM
(11/23/2004; 11:18:49 MDT - Msg ID: 126668)
Gandalfh.........China attitude will help the $ Drop to Cliff Edge
http://news.ft.com/cms/s/f16a4694-3cb1-11d9-bb7b-00000e2511c8.htmlSnip.....China tells US to put its house in order
By James Kynge in Beijing, Chris Giles in London and James Harding in Santiago
Published: November 22 2004 18:36 | Last updated: November 22 2004 18:36

In a mark of China's growing economic confidence, the country's central bank has offered blunt advice to Washington about its ballooning trade deficit and unemployment.


In an interview with the Financial Times, Li Ruogu, the deputy governor of the People's Bank of China, warned the US not to blame other countries for its economic difficulties.

"China's custom is that we never blame others for our own problem," said the senior central bank official. "For the past 26 years, we never put pressure or problems on to the world. The US has the reverse attitude, whenever they have a problem, they blame others."

Mr Li insisted an appreciation of the Chinese currency would not solve the US's structural problems and that although China was "gradually" moving towards greater exchange rate flexibility, it would not do so under heavy external pressure.

"Under heavy speculation we cannot move [towards greater flexibility] and under heavy external pressure we cannot," said Mr Li. "So the best environment for us to gradually move towards a more flexible exchange rate is when people don't talk about it."

His comments will disappoint US, Japanese and European politicians. Pressure has mounted on the Chinese administration to revalue the renminbi or to increase the flexibility of the Chinese exchange rate over the past two years.

Cont'd......
TownCrier
(11/23/2004; 11:49:47 MDT - Msg ID: 126669)
Fed makes, adds money sub-FOMC
Despite the market in fed funds traading today at the new FOMC policy target rate of 2 percent, the Fed's trading desk conducted open market operations to add $10.75 billion in new temporary base money to the nation's banking reserves. Of this, $7.5 billion was via three-day repurchase agreements provided between 1.88 - 1.97 percent, and $3.25 billion was via overnight repos from 1.94 - 1.95%. Against these reserves commercial banks can further expand the total money supply through their retail lending process.

By contrast, Mother Nature added no new metal today to the world's gold supply, and commercial miners and refiners toil to wrest it loose from her tight grip as bullion banks push pencils to artificially expand the apparent size of above-ground supply through their network of dematerialized financial derivatives of gold.

R.
Topaz
(11/23/2004; 12:14:28 MDT - Msg ID: 126670)
alt currency PoG.
http://www.futuresource.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=GC&o=100/DX&a=M&z=610x300&d=LOW&b=LINE&st=This Monthly comparison chart is quite revealing to the extent that we can identify when Gold is "relatively" strong or weak.
Note the pre Y2K and post 911 ... also note the dual PoG-Basket strength recently.
It's also revealing to observe the current run-up is as strong or stronger than both these preceding "event inspired" moves.

interesting!
TownCrier
(11/23/2004; 12:34:54 MDT - Msg ID: 126671)
Paying all-time-highs for gold at other points around the world
http://www.thedailystar.net/2004/11/24/d41124050955.htmHEADLINE: Gold gallops to all-time high

Bangladesh Daily Star (November 24, 2004) �
� �
Gold prices hit all-time high in local market yesterday when both the 21 and 22 carat went up by Tk 400 per bhori to Tk 10,100 and Tk 10,400.

"As gold price in the international market is going up, it is obvious that local market will see an adjustment as Bangladesh is totally dependent on imports," Anwar Hossain, president of Bangladesh Jewellers Manufacturers and Exporters Association, told The Daily Star yesterday.

Big investors in the Middle East do not have confidence in the US market mainly due to ongoing conflicting situation. As a result they are buying gold that has created huge demand, pushing prices unusually high, he said.

-----(from url)-----

When the savings or reserve alternative is a highly reproducible and defaultible debt-based financial instrument, the paid-in-full wealth tangibility provided by gold continues to enjoy universal appeal, even at record prices. When you fairly assess the total nature of the paper or digital alternatives, gold becomes the natural choice for real savings. Universal. Indestructible. Liquid. Reliable.

R.
TownCrier
(11/23/2004; 12:46:36 MDT - Msg ID: 126672)
International question: What to do with rising surpluses of US dollar reserves?
http://www.business-standard.com/bsonline/storypage.php?&autono=173385(AP / New Delhi�November 24, 2004) -- Despite some hiccups in the weeks post the election results, India's foreign exchange reserves have begun to slowly build up once again. The dollar continues to weaken globally and most currencies of the world, including the Indian rupee, are under pressure to appreciate against the greenback.

Given the trends in India's external sector, it seems quite clear that the country is in for a period of continuously rising reserves. ... one should expect the forex reserves of India to keep rising for the foreseeable future.

The obvious question then becomes as to how the country should manage this surplus...... currently our entire reserves are parked in sovereign fixed-income securities of various durations and currencies, but predominantly in the US fixed-income market.

This is perfectly logical, given the depth and liquidity of the US fixed-income market and the behaviour and investment profile of most central banks.

While logical, one has to keep in mind that it is difficult to earn much above 4 per cent on a basket of US fixed-income instruments, the dollar is dropping like a stone, and we are at the beginning of an interest rate tightening cycle. Not the best of times to be heavily exposed to the US sovereign debt markets.

...as long as one is clear that we are in a phase of constant reserve accumulation with no immediate need for drawdowns, one should be able to take a longer-term view of returns and their volatility.

As almost any study will show, over the long term there is very high probability that a balanced portfolio will outperform a pure fixed-income portfolio.

-----(from url)---

The author is generally probing into the right type of questions. Will they discover the right answers?

Choose gold.

R.
TownCrier
(11/23/2004; 13:20:19 MDT - Msg ID: 126673)
HEADLINE: Gold heading for $1,000?
http://www.mineweb.net/sections/gold_silver/392904.htm23-NOV-04
JOHANNESBURG (Mineweb.com) -- Even a year ago, it was unthinkable that the world's most powerful central banker would trash his country's own currency. Yet last Friday, Alan Greenspan, chairman of the Federal Reserve, the US central bank, said that, given the size of the US current-account deficit, "a diminished appetite for adding to dollar balances must occur at some point."

However, Greenspan was merely confirming knowledge widespread among specialised investors.

...Richard Russell, crusty editor of Dow Theory Letters, is calling for $1,000 an ounce "before this bull market is over". Unusual as it might be for any gold bug to anticipate that a gold bull market could one day be "over," gold is up by about 80% since its swamp days in 1999, when it hit $250 an ounce, at the height of the dollar bull market.

But as much as some critics might say that gold bugs are wont to invoke weird theories (like Armageddon), there is one piece of empirical evidence that cannot be ignored. Since 1995, the start of the previous dollar bull market, dollar gold prices have shown a 90%+ inverse correlation to the dollar. That continued to hold after the dollar plunged into its latest bear market, early in 2002.

That protracted, multi-year bear market is still very much in place, and appears to have years to go, given the extent of the US current-account deficit.

However, more sober and independent analysis also concludes that the dollar gold bull market still has wings. BCA Research has just issued a note to the effect that "importantly, the rise is showing signs of outpacing dollar weakness." To explain that piece of news BCA Research notes that gold bullion priced in yen is in a solid uptrend, "and even the euro price of bullion is close to a new cyclical high".

That translates into the ultimate potential bull market: one that is broad; one where the suggestion is that markets are starting to discount more policy reflation outside the US.

-----(From url)----

No matter where in the world you live, more and more the clear and natural choice is coming up the same. Gold.

R.
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(11/23/2004; 14:03:32 MDT - Msg ID: 126674)
Wishing you comfort and good cheer


Happy Thanksgiving
USAGOLD Daily Market Report
(11/23/2004; 14:26:43 MDT - Msg ID: 126675)
Page Update!
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Daily Gold Market Report has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.

Tuesday market excerpts

U.S. gold futures closed off from a fresh 16-1/4-year high on Tuesday, as traders pocketed profits from the market's rally to almost $450 an ounce after the dollar slumped to a new record low against the euro.

Most activity was positioning before this week's Thanksgiving holiday (COMEX and NYMEX markets will be closed Thursday and Friday) and before COMEX December options expired at day's end, dealers said.

Much of the volume was switches as funds rolled long positions from December gold into February futures, and to a lesser extent June gold, before first notice day next week.

"There's option expiration today," said a floor broker, adding that there were "more switches than anything else here." Estimated turnover was a massive 150,000 contracts, with 30,288 switches.

December gold fell $1.10 to $447.90, in a range between the overnight low of $446.10 and $449.90, which marked the highest price for benchmark futures since July 1988.

Gold in dollar terms has been surging in recent weeks as the euro rallied to record highs. The six-year old euro peaked at $1.3105 Tuesday, while the yen this week reached its strongest level since March 2000 against the greenback, arming overseas investors with greater bullion purchasing power.

----(see url for access to full news, 24-hr newswire, price charts)---
TownCrier
(11/23/2004; 14:41:11 MDT - Msg ID: 126676)
Fund managers steepen bets against dollar
http://www.reuters.com/advisorToolkit/newsArticle.jhtml?type=fundsNews&storyID=6899649excerpts

NEW YORK, Nov 23 (Reuters) - Fund managers are reinforcing their bets on the dollar's decline in the aftermath of Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan's warning last week that foreign demand for U.S. assets will eventually wane.

"You would have to say that the Fed is adopting a more dollar-negative policy from this moment on. That is a big shift which could shift the dollar-weakening trend to a whole new dimension," said Ihab Salib, global bond portfolio manager with Federated Investors in Pittsburgh. The company has some $177.6 billion assets under management.

Greenspan's comments on Friday, which many in the markets saw as a milestone for the dollar ... sharpened the currency market's focus on the wide U.S. current account deficit, now at an annualized $664 billion...

His remarks may hasten U.S. investors' search for an alternative home for part of their dollar-denominated assets to hedge against the risk of further declines in the currency, Salib said.

"You can't open any financial publication (without seeing) some kind of dollar weakening story," he added.

-----(from article at url)----

Is your own portfolio properly diversified? Call the friendly and professional staff at USAGOLD-Centennial Precious Metals today for a consultation on prudent portfolio allocations to help you meet your long-term financial goals.

1-800-869-5115

The call and the conversation are free. The results may prove priceless.

R.
exponential
(11/23/2004; 14:59:56 MDT - Msg ID: 126677)
Financial Times: Dollar hits fresh low against euro
http://news.ft.com/cms/s/7f2f70b6-3d3f-11d9-abe0-00000e2511c8.html

Snips:

"The US dollar fell to a fresh low against the euro on Tuesday, breaching the $1.31 barrier for the first time.

"The catalyst was a hint from the Russian central bank that it plans to step up its policy of switching its foreign exchange reserves into euros, at the expense of the dollar...

"More importantly, the Russian comments highlighted the prospect of Asian central banks with larger reserves following suit. China has an estimated 80 per cent of its $515bn of reserves in dollars, while Middle Eastern central banks were rumoured to be selling dollars and buying sterling on Tuesday."

TownCrier
(11/23/2004; 15:01:34 MDT - Msg ID: 126678)
Miners rolling back hedges... stumbling, evolving closer toward "free gold" paradigm
http://www.reuters.com/locales/c_newsArticle.jsp?type=businessNews&localeKey=en_CA&storyID=6899020excerpts

VANCOUVER, British Columbia (Reuters) - Today's higher gold prices won't stop Barrick Gold Corp. from reducing its hedge book ... adding that it remains "very committed" to bringing down its bulky forward sales position.

To protect itself in times of lower gold prices, Barrick, as did many other gold producers during the 1990s, sold millions of ounces of unmined gold at preset prices, leaving it with the biggest hedge book in the industry.

Now that gold prices have leapt by 80 percent since early 2001, many of these contracted sales are at below-market prices. This has angered investors and led Barrick to pledge to whittle down the thick pile of contracts, even if it means selling its gold at weaker-than-market levels.

"We are still very committed to getting this position down," said Jamie Sokalsky, Barrick's chief financial officer.

With every $1 climb in the gold price, the position gets deeper under water as the opportunity cost of selling committed ounces increases.

-----(from article at url)----

Media surprises, gives investors a worthwhile cautionary tale. True to form, however, physical alternative goes without mention.

R.
Ned
(11/23/2004; 16:25:11 MDT - Msg ID: 126679)
Boilermaker, Gab, others interested with CEF, ETF, etc.
This CEF thing has me intrigued. Like you mention Boilermaker it has been on a slide (since mid-Oct) dropping well over 10%, maybe closer to 15% while gold has been climbing considerably.

The premium of 10% to bullion as you mention has slipped to 2% and has dropped more in the last 2 days. I have mixed feelings about this 'fund'. Since there is a 'paper' aspect to it it it possible that feelings of physical are entering into the minds of CEF shareholders. Are feeling of the C word being considered as you mention as well. On the other hand if this 'fund' is better represented by bullion that the paper clone GLD, why is the premium (to gold & silver) slipping? Is it conceivable that in days to come CEF will trade at a discount to the REAL thing? I don't see that as a good thing regardless.

Oh well, I surely see the safety in metal, in your hand and let 'them' try to confiscate it!!
Sundeck
(11/23/2004; 17:30:04 MDT - Msg ID: 126680)
Plaza Accord...will there be another?
http://www.dailyfx.com/witfm_history_plaza.htmlA bit of history that may or may not be relevant...

Will there be Another? Thoughts?
phil288
(11/23/2004; 18:19:36 MDT - Msg ID: 126681)
GLD after hours
I note that in after hours trading in GLD today, it is up $1.02 or 2.28% after a close down $.20. Considerable volitility on an options expiration day. I recommend you get the real thing from our host, it allows much better control and easier sleeping.
R Powell
(11/23/2004; 18:34:19 MDT - Msg ID: 126682)
White Rose
I just read your 126650 post from yesterday. I thought it was an excellent story and noted that you have profited from both physical and paper assets.

It's nice to hear that that is possible. If this forum were my only source of information, I'd probably believe that all gold related investments are unquestionably doomed. What was that number...2.9!

So, the investment was sound and the risk was properly rewarded, no? Congratulations! Thanks for the telling of the tale.
rich
Henry Bowman
(11/23/2004; 18:43:51 MDT - Msg ID: 126683)
Regarding CEF...
I've been a shareholder in CEF for several years. When I first started buying, the fund was selling at a discount to NAV of about 8%. I'm on their mailing list and have watched the premium decline lately. Today, I called the fund to ask what they thought was going on. They were very quick to attribute the loss in premium to competition from "GLD". Some of their shareholders are selling and switching to the ETF.

I took the opportunity to confirm what I believed to be some of the differences in the two funds. CEF has a single custodian (a Canadian bank) and the Fund and Custodian jointly inspect the physical gold (and silver)every six months. Therefore, we know where it is. Also, the metals are insured to full value against all loss by LLoyds of London. I asked if the insurance included governmental action, i.e., confiscation, and was told that it did.

Net-Net, I wouldn't put a dime in GLD, but I'm comfortable with CEF. Even so, I still have physical in-hand.

Henry Bowman
Chris Powell
(11/23/2004; 18:58:20 MDT - Msg ID: 126684)
Is the world getting too short on the dollar? Impossible!
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/2572Latest GATA dispatch.


To subscribe to GATA's dispatches, send an e-mail to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com
White Rose
(11/23/2004; 20:02:41 MDT - Msg ID: 126685)
My secret of success: a bit of luck and a bit of blundering
Thank you those who have noticed my rather respectable winnings on the fiat side of things (the score in the rigged game of investing).

[See my posting yesterday where I mentioned being up by 50% in just under 3 years on physical, and being up by a factor of 2.9 on my precious metals stocks in the same time period; taken together, it is about a 26% annual return; breaking it out it is 15% on the physical and 40% on the stocks]

My route to investment wisdom has come slowly. I bought my first non-PM mutual fund holdings a a few weeks before the 1987 mini-crash. I could not bear to open the envelopes for quite a number of months. When I did, I was surprised to find out I was ahead.

I am one of those Y2K nuts that joined on the fringes of the gold bug crowd. I did not cash out in the months after Jan. 2000. For a while, I was down about 15% on my gold holdings. When things turned around, they did so quite suddenly, and I was glad I had that money still in metal and stocks.

I did make mistakes. I put money in hedged gold stocks before I knew that was a big no no. Two companies died with me holding shares (both about a thousand dollar lessons).

I put 100% of my retirement IRA (Vanguard) into its gold stock. My wife put in 75%. This fund has done so well that Vanguard has not allowed any more money in. I have not shifted a dime out of it. In Jan. 2002, we had 166k in the Vanguard PM fund. Now we have 310k.

My wife's mother passed on in the spring of 2000. Over the months, a considerable amount of money (bank acounts and bonds) were turned over to us by the executor of the estate. Some more physical and some more gold stocks were purchased.

We sold off the treasury bonds in her account right before bonds went up in value. My mistake, I could not imagine anyone thinking there was any value in bonds. Some stocks I bought have hovered (Gold Fields and Harmony). At one point I said "we need a silver stock. I read that Bill Gates bought 15% of PAAS" So we bought 15,000 shares of PAAS at $4.25 each. Later I added 3,000 so the average purchase price was $5. It is over $18 now. That is another lesson. A stock that goes up a lot is only really valuable if you buy a **lot** of shares when it was low. My wife and I own one three thousandths of PAAS, a company with over 900 million oz of silver in its reserves.

In one account I did a fair amount of trading in and out of gold stocks. Then I had to fill out my taxes and discovered that I had $29,000 of winning trades and $700 in losing ones. I did not like having to turn over so much to the IRS, so I stopped being such an active trader. It was also distracting me from my regular job to check prices so frequently.

I have not mentioned much about politics in this rant. It is just about the 41st anniversary of the JFK assassination. I did a lot of research on the JFK assassination. I have over 150 books on the subject. I have a profound hatred of the financial engine that is the nexus of the CIA and Wall Street which dominates much of our politics and economy. By buying gold, I truely believe that I have helping put a stake through thr heart of the vampire feeding on our nation. [no, it is not a Jewish conspiracy, it is a capitalist conspiracy. I wish all persons of all races, creeds, and backgounds would join me in removing the physical metal from the marketplace.]

Thanks to this forum (which I read many times a day), and Bill Murphy's cafe, I have had a profound education. I have made many mistakes, but I have also lucked out as well. I later found out that the reason PAAS was so low was that it had just come out that they had been rooked by the Russians. I have been about to understand the "gold conspiracy" easily since I was able to see the patterns of dis-information which are all over the Kennedy assassination.

Now is the time to have your money in precious metals. How much? How much do your have? I do think you need a comfortable margin so you do not need to liquidate your core holdings.

At various times I have cursed myself for buying so much physical. Recently, I as PM stocks have lagged, I have been glad. Another regret I have is that I never made it to a ton of silver. Oh well.
goldenboy
(11/23/2004; 22:36:53 MDT - Msg ID: 126686)
ETF Gold as Saviour to the Cabal
Suppose you are a counterparty to a derivative trade with JPM or GS and you owe them gold you just happened to have already sold which is now due to be returned. (nudge nudge wink, wink, say no more) Like mana from heaven, GS now pretends to have been paid back the gold, squaring the trade, by opening a new trade for the same sold gold, the catch being that the counterparty must store the gold.
It is hard to find the bodies! Counterparty does not have to deliver and face bankruptcy and gets paid to lease & store the gold that is already sold. GS avoids a huge counterparty loss, takes in a ton of cash on ETF gold to cover off other gold suppression activity, guarantees the ETF holder nothing and takes in fee income while reducing real gold buying power of the dumb public.
Who says there is no new gold alchemy at work here?







Belgian
(11/24/2004; 02:09:03 MDT - Msg ID: 126687)
@Sundeck > Plaza accord ?
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/schmidt112304.htmlThe ongoing orderly unwinding of currency exchange rates is, at present, as good as an accord. But as in any accord, there is always a party that can pull the rug somewhat closer to its own interests...up until the theoretical accord becomes a hollow promise.

Please read GE-article (see url).

I think that the ongoing power struggle for changing supremacy stands in the way for having long lasting accords that result in general (global) interest. Coalitions and accords " � la carte "...as a new modern trend.

The fact that the different currency blocks are blaming each other for what goes wrong...means that there cannot be agreed on whose's terms an accord should be drafted (recent G-20).
Dollar-euro-China-oil...etc.

One major thought (not an answer) : Behind the high profile giant screen of evolving dollar exchange rate, lies the *dollar-system* that is being challenged ! That's what is forcing you to decide...NOW... if you wish to keep on swimming into the existing paper-pool or shift into a universal wealth tangible. When in serious doubt, go for a mixture of both options. Good luck to you, Sundeck.

Belgian
(11/24/2004; 03:31:55 MDT - Msg ID: 126688)
@986...sorry for the late answer....
Bullion (fine gold-999,9), through a bank, comes from "recognized" refiners...J. Matthey, Met.Hoboken, Degussa, CS fondeurs essayeurs, etc...
Gold is stored and traded in many different weights and forms.
Do you have any doubts about the guarantees on purity...?

FOREX :
US$ down 0,5%. No interventions so far. In the mean time, the euro currency is gaining "dept". Was it planned, this way ?
968
(11/24/2004; 05:20:35 MDT - Msg ID: 126689)
@ Belgian
I had my doubts about golden coins, but after a research in a lab it turned out to be OK(= +/-90% pure gold).
The gold bars were too thick to examen.
Boilermaker
(11/24/2004; 07:02:47 MDT - Msg ID: 126690)
US-Canadian Exchange Rate
http://fx.sauder.ubc.ca/cgi/fxplot?b=CAD&c=USD&rd=*&fd=1&fm=1&fy=1971&ld=31&lm=12&ly=2004&y=daily&q=volume&f=png&a=lin&m=0&x=The Canadian $ seems to have conclusively broken its 20 year down trend with respect to the US$ (see URL). Does this mean that the Canadians have improved their fiscal and monetary behavior or that the US has sunk its own behavior faster than the Canadians. I think it's the latter. Anyway, the Canadian $ is growing and will be impacting US inflation in a significant way. Canada supplies about 20% of US imports compared to about 10% for China although the US runs a higher trade deficit with China. See trade stats @
http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/statistics/highlights/top/top0409.html
YGM
(11/24/2004; 07:38:13 MDT - Msg ID: 126691)
Silver ETF Next???
http://www.mineweb.net/sections/gold_silver/392925.htmMaybe.....Maybe we could soon see a paper promise to get into heaven too!! Futures market for redemption??????
Anythings possible in the land of la la!
Boilermaker
(11/24/2004; 07:54:01 MDT - Msg ID: 126692)
Ned- CEF
The premium or discount on CEF stock will no doubt fluctuate depending on many factors. They do have a relatively long history back to 1961. I also note that they provide for share redemption once every Quarter upon 90 days prior notice. The redemption is 80% of the net asset value of the shares as of that date and payable (I think) in currency only. In theory, the shares should not sink below 80% of net asset value.
OvS
(11/24/2004; 09:05:23 MDT - Msg ID: 126693)
A few thought for Richard (Rick).
You are one of the more entertaining
fellows on this site. So, many a person
treats you with gloves on. But, you still
don't get the message:
Go trade and make your risk money, but
don't try to collect a following on these
pages. Your last embrace of White Rose, for
instance.
He brags about his good fortune and you
see yourself vindicated. And so with others
who do likewise.
This website has many different characters;
some with dismal trading records, I'm sure.
No need to entice them back, because when
the sledgehammer will descend, as it will,
they and probably you, will give back, what
has been gained so valiantly in the paper-
trading game.
Play your game but do not seek converts by
pointing out the obvious. At the most, there
are 5% who can profit consistantly, and those
include the insiders who can make things
happen in markets. For example, who can equal
Goldman Sachs in trading, when they have two
floors of computers that a few years ago al-
ready could make 200 trades "a second" all
arround the globe?
Look at Sinclair. He tries to educate the gold-
community in trading, but when the going gets
rough, all the knowledge he imbues is for
nought. The not-for-trading-made enlightened
following jumps the ship...
At any rate, R.P., good luck and good sailing.
Sincerely yours, OvS
YGM
(11/24/2004; 09:29:37 MDT - Msg ID: 126694)
What Happened to the Launch of the Gold Dinar.....Wanniski wonders too
http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/E7515CEE-880E-492F-B225-A94E21D90D2B.htmSnip.....
....US Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan last week shook the financial and commodity markets with his comments at a banking conference in Frankfurt, saying the dollar would continue to fall against other currencies because of US trade deficits.

But if the United States had a gold dollar, this could not happen, and Greenspan, who I have known personally for 32 years, knows this.

Because the dollar "floats", with no gold anchor, it has been launched into a new inflationary cycle, one that threatens to drag all of Asia into another inflation through the dollar's links to the Chinese and Hong Kong currencies.

It is worthwhile thinking about Mahathir's inspiration as well as his failure, and how another run at a gold dinar might work with a different design.

Why am I interested? I've been trying for the last quarter century to persuade my country to restore the gold dollar as the core of a new international monetary system. But as turbulent as the world of commerce has been with the floating US dollar, inflating and deflating in random cycles, I've had no luck
Great Albino Bat
(11/24/2004; 09:37:14 MDT - Msg ID: 126695)
Right on, OvS - I agree with your point of view on trading....

Trading stocks, bonds, futures, calls, puts, options and other derivatives ad infinitum, that's "the sort of thing people like, who like that sort of thing".

Anyone who can make money consistently that way - good for him! There are VERY few who can. "A rich trader is a trader who died young."

The problem is, once you are thinking in terms of trading, and like any other worthwhile endeavor you really put your mind to it, this mind-set takes over your mind.

Don't think you will be able to stop COLD, one fine day, when the world is one day away from economic collapse, and say, "No more paper trading for me. Goodbye to all that! Now, I shift to investing in silver and gold physical metal in possession."

Don't think you will do that, because you will not. Once you create a habit of mind, that is part of your personality and you can't swear off at all. You thought you might do that, but when push comes to shove, you will still stay a paper trader.

It's human nature.

The GAB
YGM
(11/24/2004; 09:56:43 MDT - Msg ID: 126696)
Probably the most comprehensive outline of "Paper Frauds" in US Monetary System
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/hommel022604.htmlBy, Jason Hommel...a truly eye opening read....YGM
YGM
(11/24/2004; 10:12:13 MDT - Msg ID: 126697)
CFTC..Warning........one unheeded and "Un"Enforced" ......IMO
http://www.cftc.gov/enf/00orders/enfposting5-metals.htmExcerpt.....COMMISSION ADVISORY

Beware Of Promises Of Easy Profits From
Buying Precious Metals And Other Commodities

Consumers should be alert to companies that sell investments in precious metals and other commodities based on sales pitches claiming that customers can make a lot of money, with little risk, by purchasing metal through a financing agreement. Sometimes these companies offer opportunities to speculate on the price movement of precious metals, or other commodities such as heating oil, without actually taking delivery of the commodity.

The United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is the federal agency that regulates the trading of commodity futures and options contracts in the United States and takes action against firms suspected of illegally or fraudulently selling commodity futures and options. Over the past several years, the CFTC has taken enforcement action against wrongdoers who lured customers to purchase purported interests in precious metals without taking delivery, through various misrepresentations including claims that they would earn large profits with little risk........cont'd


Excerpt.....

What's Wrong With Such Sales Pitches?

The CFTC's experience has been that companies making such pitches often:

**minimize the degree of investment risk involved in metals investments;

**fraudulently fail to disclose how much the price of metal must go up for the customer to break even (let alone profit), since hefty finance and storage fees and commissions are deducted from the customer's account before any profits accrue;

**falsely claim to be purchasing and storing the metal, when they do not actually do so. Indeed, companies often discourage customers from taking delivery of the metal;

**charge phony "storage" fees for metal, when no metal is actually purchased or stored;

**charge phony "interest" fees that diminish a customer's account equity to the point where the customer has to deposit additional funds with the company or have his account closed out at a total loss. The interest fees are phony because no metal has been purchased, as promised, and the financing arrangement therefore is fictitious;

**fail to point out that, because you are buying on "margin" or with leverage, you will have to send the company additional funds (or sell a portion of your "metal position") if the price of the precious metals moves unfavorably.

.........Cont'd.

goldquest
(11/24/2004; 10:22:56 MDT - Msg ID: 126698)
CFTC Warning
What, they don't want any unregulated crooks horning in on the regulated crooks? No competitive spirit, I guess!
Rimh
(11/24/2004; 10:31:15 MDT - Msg ID: 126699)
Re: Hommel's case of fraud
While he makes a strong case for his fraud charges, I believe there is another point of view. Perhaps the experts here could pick it apart.

While the going off the gold standard in '33 and internationally in '71, the global governments had to have a reason to still accept US dollars. They were told that it was backed by the GDP or in other words, yours and my labor and productivity. The government of the day was borrowing against our current and future productivity. And at the time, that seemed to be ok because the US economy had fundamental strength and strong growth. In effect, they were basing the dollar's relative value on the (con)fidence in US industry and ingenuity.

Unfortunately, our ingenuity has been so effective that we have outsourced alot of our jobs to those other countries just to save a buck and destroyed the internal fundamental economic strength we once displayed. Now we see this lack of strength translated into the value of the dollar. I realize there is more to this argument than these simplistic statements, but for Hommel to say the US dollar has been a total fraud may be a bit of an extreme.

We can rebuild the fundamental underpinnings of economic strength, but to get there, we need to seriously heed Black Blade's advice: Get out of debt, get gold and silver (ie. savings).... The nation may have to go through a purge of all the debt (recession/depression) and the gold and silver may be a family's only safe fallback position - all paper may get burned....

FWIW

Rimh
Gandalf the White
(11/24/2004; 10:48:45 MDT - Msg ID: 126700)
LOOK Sir YGM --- at the US$ Chart ! <;-)
http://charts-d.quote.com:443/1002980432830?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=DX00Y∬erval=10&Ht=600&Wd=800&Display=2&Study=MA&Param1=13&Param2=0&Param3=&FontSize=10ANOTHER new LOW !!
and GOLD is just taking a HOLIDAY rest, BEFORE heading --
TO THE MOON, Alice !
<;-)
Caradoc
(11/24/2004; 11:16:50 MDT - Msg ID: 126701)
Jason Hommel on confiscation
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/hommel111604.htmlHommel's most recent write up (at URL above) is on confiscation. He makes the point that for most "investors" ongoing inflation and devaluation of currency amount to a continual confiscation of assets accomplished on a percentage basis. I'll add that it's being done in such a way that there's no particular day or event involved so that the most people -- like the frog in the pot of gradually heated water -- never wake up to the fact that they're being robbed. Hommel's point is particularly apt today, 24 November 2004, since the US dollar is down a little over 1/2 a percentage point from par since I had my first cup of coffee this morning

Hommel's write up ends by addressing a silver stock reporting kilograms per ton rather than the usual grams per ton, mostly because of the presence of native silver (i.e., shiny metal). And near enough to the surface to allow pit mining. Providing a link isn't appropriate in this forum, but two minutes with Google will have you looking at photos of shiny metal peeking out of drilling samples.

Caradoc
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(11/24/2004; 12:01:14 MDT - Msg ID: 126702)
Wishing you comfort and good cheer


Happy Thanksgiving
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(11/24/2004; 12:02:33 MDT - Msg ID: 126703)
The fruit of your labor: Exchange today's harvest for timeless value!
http://www.usagold.com/gold-coins.html

Swiss gold francs

Harvest Time
Whatever it is that you may have sown,
we'll give you the power to reap GOLD.

1-800-869-5115
USAGOLD-Centennial has three decades of experience in the field

Ag Mountain
(11/24/2004; 12:32:22 MDT - Msg ID: 126704)
@YGM. CFTC warning
My bet is they had a certain group of California wheeler-dealers in mind. I'd like to name names but the rules don't allow it. Don't worry, stick with our host and you'll be treated better than fine.
Rimh
(11/24/2004; 12:33:10 MDT - Msg ID: 126705)
Caradoc
Good point, and I agree with your analysis, but if Hommel meant confiscation or devaluation, why did he use the word 'fraud'? It just seemed a bit over the top to me...
TownCrier
(11/24/2004; 12:47:37 MDT - Msg ID: 126706)
Fed adds holiday cash, $17.5 billion newly made
While the market in fed funds traded in line with the FOMC policy target of 2 percent, the Federal Reserve's trading desk got into the spirit of holiday giving anyway and conducted open market operations to the tune of $10 billion fresh cash injected via 15-day repurchase agreements and $7.5 billion via two-day repos.

When money is too easily made, people choose the universal security of tangible gold to provide lasting substance for the value of their savings.

R.
USAGOLD Daily Market Report
(11/24/2004; 14:35:35 MDT - Msg ID: 126707)
Page Update!
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Daily Gold Market Report has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.

Wednesday market excerpts

Gold futures on the Comex endured a choppy session Wednesday as pre-Thanksgiving profit taking tugged prices lower from early contract highs before bargain hunters stepped in later to leave prices up on the day.

The most active December contract settled $1.40 higher at $449.30 against a backdrop of renewed weakness in the U.S. dollar. (February 2005 gold settled up $1.30 at $451.50.)

The U.S. currency toppled to fresh historic lows against the euro and multi-year lows against other major rivals as international investors and traders continued to file out of the greenback.

Gold's counter-cyclical tendencies made it an attractive destination for some of those funds, especially as bullion prices have recently scaled levels not seen in 16 years. However, good levels of pre-U.S. long weekend profit taking and bullion bank- selling appeared ahead of the $450 mark to make the route higher tough going during the early ascent, before fund selling in gold dragged December prices lower by late morning.

Good volumes of position rolling were also noted during the morning as players opt to roll exposure forward rather than take physical delivery of gold.

Volume was extremely heavy as traders transferred positions from December gold into February futures and, to a lesser extent, June gold, before next week's first notice day for metal delivery. Estimated turnover was a staggering 290,000 contracts, with 80,215 switches.

This activity placed additional pressure on the December contract during the middle of the trading day.

However, that pressure was alleviated somewhat late morning as speculative players mindful of the longer term bearish prognosis for the U.S. dollar stepped in as bargain hunters into the weaker prices.

---(see url for access to full news, 24-hr newswire, gold price charts)----
TownCrier
(11/24/2004; 14:35:56 MDT - Msg ID: 126708)
Canada to consider competitive devaluation measures to curb strong Canadian dollar?
Bank of Canada Governor David Dodge to the Canadian Senate Banking Committee, Wednesday, Nov 24th:

"Good afternoon, Mr. Chairman and members of the Committee. We appreciate the opportunity to meet with this committee twice a year, following the release of our Monetary Policy Reports. These meetings help us keep Parliamentarians and, through you, all Canadians informed about the Bank's views on the economy, and about the objective of monetary policy and the actions we take to achieve it.

"When Paul and I appeared before this Committee last April, we told you that we judged the economy to be operating significantly below its potential. That is no longer the case. The Canadian economy grew faster in the first half of the year than we had projected, largely because of a surge in exports. The economy is now operating near its production capacity...

"Paul and I have just returned from last weekend's meeting of the G-20 in Berlin. The issues we discussed there line up very closely with those issues we identified and analyzed in our Report -- commodity prices, realignment of currencies, global imbalances, and the growing presence of emerging-market economies such as China and India....

"Since the October Report, one of the most significant developments has been a further depreciation of about 5 per cent in the value of the U.S. dollar against other major floating currencies, including the Canadian dollar. If current exchange rates were to be sustained and if all other economic and financial factors were to remain unchanged this would have a dampening effect on aggregate demand for Canadian goods and services. Since monetary policy aims to keep aggregate demand and supply in balance in order to keep inflation close to our target, we need to assess the implications of movements in the currency for aggregate demand and the context in which they occur that is, the changes in other economic and financial factors."

-----------

To what increasing extent will it be politically desirable to have the Candian dollar trend in closer parallel with the sliding U.S. dollar?

TownCrier's bottom line to our Canadian friends: Use your currency's improved purchasing power while it is available to you. Secure the lasting value of your savings with gold.

R.
YGM
(11/24/2004; 14:54:53 MDT - Msg ID: 126709)
TC.......
TownCrier's bottom line to our Canadian friends: Use your currency's improved purchasing power while it is available to you. Secure the lasting value of your savings with gold.

***Sound advice because one day no matter how good the Loonie looks, the world will wake up to the fact it is backed by almost no Gold (about 31 T left) and is backed by US Paper...That is unless our CB is buying Gold in secret, which I doubt...The vast majority of the CEF fund is controled by Lawyers and Politicians who think we'll never notice where they put their cash...Now wonder how much Physical Gold Brian Mulrooney or Cretien & Paul Martin own........Some of us are fooled, some are not fools!!
TownCrier
(11/24/2004; 15:21:48 MDT - Msg ID: 126710)
Steep fall in price of dollar sends gold rates soaring
http://www.thehimalayantimes.com/fullstory.asp?filename=aBXaza0sgqzpda5Ta7ta.axamal&folder=aBDasaian729&Name=Business&dtSiteDate=20041125&sImageFileName=The Guardian
London, November 24:

The price of gold was poised to break through the $450 barrier as the fall in the value of the dollar sent nervous investors in search of a safe haven.

...News that Russia may increase the share of euros in its reserves helped to drive the dollar's fall yesterday.

Although the US government says it supports a "strong dollar��, analysts said that meant little in practical terms. "Although the US administration would never say publicly, privately it is probably pretty happy with the dollar's decline, because of the positive effect on US exports,�� said Julian Jessop of Capital Economics.

Economists are predicting that the slide of the dollar against the euro will continue into 2005. With the dollar likely to remain weak, the outlook for gold looks favourable.

-----(from url)----

At the end of the day the dollar is merely an economic tool that has been asked for too long to be too many things for too many parties.

As the use-status as an international reserve asset becomes more realistically assessed and set aside as a policy experiement whose course and time have both overrun, a severe reduction in market value of the dollar will be in the offing. And as independent gold would be naturally sought to fill the gaping international reserve void created by the evacuation of dollars, the value of physical gold will be propelled upward.

As reflected in dollar-denominated prices, these two effects will be compounded, giving gold a sharply rising price in all currencies (AND relative to all other tangibles), but most especially outstanding as quoted in dollars.

R.
MK
(11/24/2004; 16:51:27 MDT - Msg ID: 126711)
Happy Thanksgiving everyone. . . .
On the day we give thanks for our blessings, I want to specially thank our posters who make this the best gold forum on the internet. It's been quite a year, my friends, and quite a journey from our humble beginnings. . . I wish you and yours good football, much turkey and all the best.
YGM
(11/24/2004; 18:30:19 MDT - Msg ID: 126712)
Happy Thanksgiving to you all S of 49th...
And to USA Gold for all the years of learning, sharing, debating & unloading thoughts/sites on Gold and the enigmas and deceptions that surround this most precious & maligned of Metals.....YGM
Sundeck
(11/24/2004; 21:46:12 MDT - Msg ID: 126713)
Plaza Accord...
@Belgian Msg #126687

Thanks, Belgian, for the reference to Ned Schmidt's article at GE...a good read.

You are probably right...there may be too much self-interest and national repositioning, going on (and not enough pain...yet) for any sit-down-around-the-table accord to be fairly drafted and implemented at the present time.

I read today, in the Australian Financial Review, that the Reserve Bank of Australia is diversifying out of the US dollar. 38% of its currency reserves are in Euros. It is rumoured that the Reserve Bank is selling the Ozzie dollar to slow its rapid rise. No doubt it still has LOTS of US dollars too...what we, in Australia call an "each-way bet".

It will be interesting to observe, as the US dollar weakens, what shifts occur in the denomination of a currency for international trade. Oil is the much-mentioned example, but oil is just one of many commodities against which the US dollar is falling. If the pace of devaluation in the dollar picks up, it will make the job of writing yearly contracts very difficult, if not impossible. Companies that export (from Australia, for example) will be screaming for stability. Hedging may become far too expensive (or risky) or just rediculous and impossible.

Interesting times...


Thanks Belgian

Cheers

TownCrier
(11/24/2004; 21:51:30 MDT - Msg ID: 126714)
OVERNITE: Asia Stocks Mixed on Weak Dollar, Gold Hits New High
http://www.reuters.com/locales/c_newsArticle.jsp?type=businessNews&localeKey=en_CA&storyID=6914194SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Strength in tech stocks and steelmakers offset the drag of renewed dollar weakness on Asian share markets on Thursday, while gold hit a new 16-1/4-year high and oil moved back up toward $50 a barrel.

The dollar hovered close to an all-time low against the euro reached just before the start of Tokyo trade after a slew of U.S. data on Wednesday failed to offer any support.

...The near-term premium on the Chinese yuan in offshore markets surged to its highest in more than a year as speculation intensified that the currency might be revalued as early as next week.

----(from url)----

While you sleep the market tirelessly marches onward.

Choose gold. Rest easy.

R.
Belgian
(11/25/2004; 01:28:58 MDT - Msg ID: 126715)
We are evolving towards the Big gold-change....
All currencies, that were supposed to be dollar-derivatives, do see the dollar exchange rate decline unilaterally ! This,... for the time being,... orderly decline is nicely reflected in a mirror-price for (paper-dollar) gold.

This paper-goldprice is still "free" to relate "directly" with its one and only paper-antithesis, since 1971 : the US$. Most, if not all, find it absolutely "evident" that this will continue and all projections are being made in function of this 35 years old premisse. Dollar exch. rate decline will stop somewhere and the POG will be around $500-$600-$800...or whatever fantasized level.

But,...

Today, we find $-oilprices that have jumped out of a 35 yrs dollarprice-box ! More and more oil wishes to service non dollar entities !!! And with each further decline of the US$ exch. rate, other inconsistant theories (correlations) are brought forward, without ever touching the underlying fundamental reasons, WHY this is happening.
It all looks as if the former dollar-management has shifted into other strengthening hands !?

That's WHY the old dollarpaper connected goldpricing, will and shall "change" also ! The old "two-tier" goldmarket (paper-physical) will be abandoned together with the dollar's reserve status. Papergold pricing, at the dollar's service", will lose its $-functionality.

WHY is Russia (and others) publicly (and not silently) announcing that it changes dollars for euro !? Strange, no ?
The more, when one sees what is happening in Oekraine...Yukos...Iran-China, etc...

During the "orderly" period, the goldprice/pricing will remain attached to the $ currency market. Dollar down, $-POG up. And during this very critical dollar-times, the goldprice will not be given a chance to run away or behind its $-paper cuffs. The goldprice must absolutely keep on suggesting that it still is supporting the dollar !
It may NOT be suggested that a modern new physical �-goldmarket could give gold its wonderfull function...OUTSIDE THE FIAT ARENA !!!

That's WHY all gold-observers are at a total loss about the abnormal low price of gold in the present context !
Gold-derivatives, do need a minimum of physical gold in order to be rolled over and over again. Once that minimum basis of available physical gold starts shrinking rapidly and purposely...game over is in sight. This "WAS" the purpose behind the EU gold re-distribution, through the perception building of CB goldsales.
That's also the perfide purpose of the ETF's. Get that physical gold out of their (gold advocates) hands and bring it back into a dollar supporting pool !!! Not a job for eskimos...

Hey,...why are goldmine-shareplayers, complaining about the lacklustre performance of the shareprices in the building contexts !? Do they suspect that something is probably changing...orderly !? Or is it only a temporary malaise ?

Yes, gold AND currency are still "intertwined". But I see more and more subtle cracks in it.
As oil is leaving its support for the dollar...papergold will do also and shift into physical goldtrade supporting the euro concept. Keep on thinking about it.


Sundeck
(11/25/2004; 04:39:57 MDT - Msg ID: 126716)
Stop Spot!
Hello...looks like Spot has taken off with the turkey dinner...now above $452 and rising.

:-0
YGM
(11/25/2004; 06:19:49 MDT - Msg ID: 126717)
Belgian.......At the end of this "Evolution"
Thru this evolution of Gold and Fiats or I should I say at the end result of this evolution someone must be a loser.
Yes? No?
For my ten years of "Thinking" & "Watching", I'm still only sure of what I knew back then...
That CB's want the physical Gold from the private hands, "ALL" Banks want to create a maximum of debt on the masses in the interim and the Fiat system as we know it is corrupt...
What I still don't understand is who's going to pay for all the 'Paper' Promises of Gold sold thru this evolution...
What disasterous effects will a series of cascading
'Defaults' in Gold Derivatives and Futures Markets have
on our already fragile and so complex financial system????
Any thoughts you have would be appreciated by many I'm sure......BTW...Maybe the Eskimos are the only ones who could be the ultimately unaffected few :-}

Regards...YGM
YGM
(11/25/2004; 06:46:26 MDT - Msg ID: 126718)
All.... PM & Sound Money Advocates will want to read this article...
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/silverbear/2004/1123.htmlThe Great Silver Heist........
slingshot
(11/25/2004; 08:14:02 MDT - Msg ID: 126719)
Happy Thanksgiving
Wishing you all a safe and Happy Thanksgiving.
Slingshot-----gobble, gobble, gobble!
slingshot
(11/25/2004; 08:35:18 MDT - Msg ID: 126720)
One more thing before I go
I said awhile back that nobody wants gold below $450, but everyone will want it above $450. I have been waiting for those wild up and down days. Those who have read this forum are truly battle hardened and have with stood the test of time. Enduring the $6.00 rule and with patience the breakage of every resistance level. With TRUTH and KNOWLEDGE we will be able to withstand any frontal assault by TPTB.
WE will see tomorrow!
Slingshot-------------Go Gold!
Belgian
(11/25/2004; 09:26:00 MDT - Msg ID: 126721)
@YGM
The answer is very simple and always the same one : "INFLATE" and let everyone pay for what they thought they had. That INFLATION is exactly the "convenience" of any and all paper.
Once the existing debt is minimalized through inflation, the whole circus starts over again.
This time, w'll have "hyper-inflation" that will hurt all of us without having a world that can be stopped spinning around. Some defaults here and there, but business will go on as usual.

Today, a Parisbas spokesman said the magic sentence : the euro is heading for reserve status and will replace the dollar in that function. Not the end of the world, no !?

The International Monetary System survived the 1933 US gold confiscation and then the 1971 Nixon measure. We will certainly survive the dollar's loss of reserve status and the hyper-inflation that this will spread all over the globe.

The main reason WHY the Western financial system got so terribly complicated with the loads of derivatives...is because we wanted to postpone the day of reckoning as far in the future as possible ! Time for the dollar system to get Another life, has come.

The gold in your fist will certainly make this period of "change" painless. The gold in your fist went from $253 to $450. How does that feel !? How simple and unoffensive is this universal defense. Say dada to your banker or financial analyst and give them a Big smile, whilst not showing your little tiny yellow secret. Sleep like a baby and let this financial circus work it out for itself.
Billions of other people don't have access to the unproductive complexities of the Western financial industry/economy. They stick to the universal simplicity of gold-property.

Get yourself a "real asset" (gold) instead of more claims (paper-certificates) to assets ! All those claims "are" the inflation already. The price-translation of this mess is to follow. Towncrier reports regulary on the permanent claim-hyper-expansion. Exchange your paper-reserves for real tangible assets before all claims on real assets will become much less worth.

That is exactly what most simple folks around the world are doing ! They don't get sucked into a fabricated devastating paper-industry. Watch out when they start realizing that the dollars under their matrasses are becoming worthless. All these dollars (claims) will rush for real tangible assets, including gold. Note that there are more dollars outside the US than inside !

Today : South Afrika finmin : Lowering the rand exchange rate, would be the stupiest thing we could do ! Not the rand, but the US$ has a problem.
Fukui (Japan) : We have a currency in-stability problem !

If you think that permanent intervention is going to save this dollar-world for ever, dearest YGM...then you can stick to paper claims and add to these. Otherwise, follow the gold-trail.
YGM
(11/25/2004; 09:40:18 MDT - Msg ID: 126722)
Belgian....
Thank you sir for your timely & informative response....You should know for interest sake the only 'Paper' claims I EVER held on Gold were my Mining Claims titles (25 miles @ 500 ft. p/claim) and a few Jr Gold Mining Stocks (long since sold).....
Physical Gold in the Hand & in the "Creek Bank" became my "Trail" long ago...Regards...YGM
YGM
(11/25/2004; 09:46:11 MDT - Msg ID: 126723)
Gandalf........Wake Up from your slumber O' Wizard....
Whilst you are dreaming of the Hobbits Turkey feast, your dog spot has jumped the fence and on a day of flatline at Kitco...Noone the wiser spot ran away for the day!!... We shall see if he returns anytime soon....YGM
YGM
(11/25/2004; 10:01:36 MDT - Msg ID: 126724)
Dollarization and Conquest of Hyperinflation........PDF format
http://minneapolisfed.org/research/qr/qr2531.pdfI now have to read this myself...I feel a headache comin on!
Chris Powell
(11/25/2004; 10:14:12 MDT - Msg ID: 126725)
Bond house director admits that the great scheme is to rip off the developing world
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/2579Latest GATA dispatch....


To subscribe to GATA's dispatches, send an e-mail to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com
OvS
(11/25/2004; 10:33:58 MDT - Msg ID: 126726)
For your enjoyment.
Here is a tiny excerpt form a thriller
published in 1976 by Doubleday & Co.,
called "Dubai".

There is a dire demand for gold in India
and Pakistan today," he explained. "Many
weddings are being postponed (because
goldsmugglers shipments had been confis-
cated by the Indian boder patrols--this
is my comment) until the proper amount of
gold to adorn the bride can be obtained by
her parents. The rich Indians are desperate
to convert their silver bars, and the Amer-
ican and British currency and traveler's
checks they have acquired, into gold."
OvS
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(11/25/2004; 13:09:38 MDT - Msg ID: 126727)
Wishing you comfort and good cheer


Happy Thanksgiving
Liberty Head
(11/25/2004; 14:22:08 MDT - Msg ID: 126728)
My Favorite Holiday Recipie

Dollar and Oil
Gold and Turmoil
Bubble and boil

Without the gold it's just a recipie for disaster.

Happy Turkey Day
Great Albino Bat
(11/25/2004; 14:44:31 MDT - Msg ID: 126729)
Liberty Head: How about a Haiku?

Take oil and dollar;
Add gold, mixed in with turmoil;
roast with Doubt and Fear.
Goldendome
(11/25/2004; 15:06:31 MDT - Msg ID: 126730)
Why the spike up?
Can someone please explain for me, the $3.00 upward spike in the gold price at noon today, when all of the markets were seemingly closed? At least that's how it would appear from the Kitco chart. Not complaining of course, just would like to know what was going on there?
YGM
(11/25/2004; 15:50:46 MDT - Msg ID: 126731)
Goldendome.....
The move up was showing here @ USA page and @ Nadania Quotelist quite some time before the spike @ Kitco...Their system may have been down and when it caught up it just showed the spike not the more gradual climb.....YGM
Goldendome
(11/25/2004; 16:20:41 MDT - Msg ID: 126732)
(No Subject)
YGM: Thanks for your clarification. I've been using the more diverse and detailed INO pages here at USA more lately, and will probably continue to use them more and more as Kitco seems to be having more trouble than previously even keeping their site up.

Good day to you, Sir!
Chris Powell
(11/25/2004; 19:15:39 MDT - Msg ID: 126733)
Central bankers are told not to talk publicly about rigging markets
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/2584Latest GATA dispatch.


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Chris Powell
(11/25/2004; 19:52:59 MDT - Msg ID: 126734)
Bank of England's economist says dollar could fall another 15 percent
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/2586Another GATA dispatch.


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Cytek
(11/25/2004; 20:10:29 MDT - Msg ID: 126735)
This is starting to get interesting
Looking at GLD - 3 million ounces so far to GLD

Up to 3 million ozs of gold dehedged

The miners produce about 6 Million ozs per quarter

That leaves zero gold for the rest of the market.

Only the CBs and the disinvestment stemming from higher gold prices are left on the table.

YGM
(11/25/2004; 21:31:46 MDT - Msg ID: 126736)
THIS.....is getting interesting..............................
Gold @ $452.60

Like waiting for a flat tire on a rocky road, I keep expecting the worst....Nice orderly climb, not like the $10-$20 dollar days of a few years ago....Nice to see after the long wait endured....Can it last???
OZ
(11/25/2004; 22:31:48 MDT - Msg ID: 126737)
(No Subject)
Even more interesting at 453.20$ USD
cheers
Caradoc
(11/25/2004; 22:41:16 MDT - Msg ID: 126738)
453.30 and counting
http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/en/detail/_pages/charts/main_large.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1Interesting indeed. The heck with the moon: ad astra per aspera.

Kitco reporting is overwhelmed and even comdirect is having trouble keeping up with POG. It's now at 453.00 but reporting the high as 453.10 rather than 453.30 which is odd because I just watched it go from 453.20 to 453.30 about two minutes ago.

Caradoc
Gandalf the White
(11/25/2004; 23:35:37 MDT - Msg ID: 126739)
SORRY, Sir YGM -- SPOT is running WILD !
Just broke through $454.!!!
<;-)
Liberty Head
(11/25/2004; 23:55:02 MDT - Msg ID: 126740)
From The Archives

About this time last year, gold went above $400 and the dollar dropped below 90. The very gracious hosts of this forum also sponsored one of their world famous price guessing contests. The essay question was: Will we see POG go to $500 in 2004? Why?
I particularly liked this question and made a note to follow up after the year to compare reality against our predictions.
Most of the contestants were optimistic about hitting $500. However, the understanding of the fundamentals and how they contribute to the POG is strong here.
Gandalf the White nailed it with his prediction of a post election break out.
What a great forum!
We still have one month to go.

Best Wishes
968
(11/26/2004; 00:46:29 MDT - Msg ID: 126741)
ECB Press Release
http://www.ecb.int/press/pdf/wfs/2004/fs041119en.pdfSNIP : "In the week ending 19 November 2004, the decrease of EUR 27 million in gold and gold receivables
(asset item 1) reflected the selling of gold by a Eurosystem central bank (consistent with the Central
Bank Gold Agreement of 27 September 2004)." END SNIP

Does anyone knows which CB has been selling ?
968
(11/26/2004; 01:30:55 MDT - Msg ID: 126742)
Is it raining petrodollars in the Arab world?
by Abdelmenem Jamil Addas
01-11-04 The present century has been marked by a significant increase in wealth-producing power (for some Arab countries) especially with today's oil prices being traded in NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) at $ 50 a barrel.
One thing that people are missing is that Arab oil producing countries don't earn today's price of $ 50 a barrel. If you look at the spread between Dubai and WTI (West Texas Intermediate) you see that it has gone from about $ 2 at the beginning of the year to over $ 10 today, thus Arab oil is priced at under $ 40 a barrel. Besides, if we take the increase in the volume of US dollars (thanks to the US Federal Reserve Bank) from 1980s, Arab oil has to increase to $ 75 to reach that same level.
"Saudi nominal gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 13.7 %, compared to 3.0 % in 2002", Hamad Al-Sayyari was quoted as saying.
If the oil prices are at all-time high, therefore real wages in Saudi Arabia and in other Arab oil producing countries must increase. Could anybody tell me why Arab consumers are resorting to hundreds of millions in loans takeouts to keep consumption above the line? If real GDP growth is so high, tell me why the Arab economy hasn't created any jobs over the past 4 years?
More than twenty years ago in 1980 it was natural to expect, and it was expected, that higher oil prices would improve the condition of the Saudi citizen; that the enormous increase in the power of producing wealth would make real poverty a thing of the past.
Let us look at the fundamental question of how we characterize growth in the Arab economy. All economists will jump to explain (with their archaic logic) that any increase in prosperity can be measured strictly in terms of the macroeconomic entity called gross domestic product (GDP). Those economists and bureaucrats believe that keeping GDP expanding at some arbitrary minimum rate is the primary indicator of wealth, whatever economic or social harm this causes along the way.
The whole business of national income accounting enshrines Keynes's perverted and patronizing view. Those bureaucrats who suppose that they can make a purely objective estimate of national income, not influenced by preconceptions concerning the "facts", are deluding themselves; for whenever they include one item or excludes another they are implicitly accepting some standard of judgment of their own. Any measurement of a country's wealth must exclude all private and public debts.
Oil is just a commodity, it must be looked at as a "means" to achieve true wealth. The mere fact that those Arab states whose major portion of revenues come from oil, do not increase the wealth of their countries unless those proceeds are used efficiently to generate true wealth for all of their citizens, in other words it is called productive capital.
Arab citizens are facing all kinds of threats, both internal and external when they are trying to build wealth. Internal threats to wealth are many. People dependent on the income earner are demanding more money for current entertainment, vacations, diversions and consumption. Also, the Arab citizens are facing tremendous peer pressure -- "keep up with the joneses" -- living off their credit cards along with their loans, and naturally always driving shiny new cars.
Arab citizens seeking to build wealth also face external threats from their friendly (and unfriendly bankers) trying to separate them from their hard-earned seed capital. These banking institutions have brainwashed the Arab citizens to such terrible degree that rather than building wealth through had-work, prudence, and saving, many Arab citizens have been deluded into believing that debts and the stock markets always ascend to the heavens and make everyone rich.
The Arabs, do have things, but they lack the process to represent their prosperity and create capital. They have adapted every other Western invention, from the paper clip to the petrochemical plants, have not been able to produce sufficient capital to make their domestic capitalisms work.
We are coming into collision with facts which there can be no mistaking. From all parts of the Arab world come complaints of poverty and unemployment; of capital massed by the very few and spent on five-star hotels, shopping centres, expensive residential and commercial buildings, etc. of want and suffering and anxiety among the working classes and the unemployed.
And, unpleasant as it may be to admit it, it is at last becoming evident that the enormous increase in material wealth in the hands of less than 1 % of the Arab population which has marked the present century and is still going on with accelerating ratio, has no tendency to reduce poverty or to lighten the burdens of those compelled to work extremely hard. It simply widens the gulf between the "House of Have" and the "House of Want", and makes the struggle for existence more intense.
It is true that wealth has been greatly increased in the Arab world, and that the average of comfort, leisure, and refinement has been raised; but these gains are not general. In them the lowest class do not share. It is true that the poorest may now in certain ways enjoy what the richest 30 years ago could not have commanded, but this does not show improvement of condition so long as the ability to obtain the necessaries of life is not increased.
I do not mean that the condition of the Arab lowest class has nowhere nor in anything been improved; but that there is nowhere any improvement which can be credited to increased petrodollars. Where the lowest class barely lives, as has been the case for a long time in many parts of the Arab world, it is impossible for it to get any lower, for the next lowest step is out of existence.
Abdelmenem Jamil Addas (Abdelmenemaddas@yahoo.com) is a professor of financial markets, at the College of Business Administration. He is based in Jeddah.
Source: Arab News
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
As Belgian says : "Oil knows it !"
Sundeck
(11/26/2004; 03:18:13 MDT - Msg ID: 126743)
Who is buying dollars?
Whoa! Someone is buying dollars for all they're worth (and selling gold to boot). What are the relative volumes? Is the dollar-amount of gold sold enough to explain the dollar rally - about 1% (I think not, but what do others think?).

My guess there is a central bank or three buying dollars to try to slow the mad dive.

Wow! How many dollars does one need to buy to send the price up 1%?

There are a few white knuckles out there folks...

;-)
Sundeck
(11/26/2004; 03:39:01 MDT - Msg ID: 126744)
Sounds a bit fishy to me...
http://www.brudirect.com/DailyInfo/News/Archive/Nov04/271104/wn02.htmHere, at last is an alternative to paper gold...transgenic gold fish! Big market in China anticipated...

Snip:

"...
Wuku - A Taiwanese company, which has earned global fame with its transgenic fish, has updated its product line with a new species which glows fluorescent gold in the dark, raising concerns among environmentalists.

"We are very excited about the new fish," the latest in a line of genetically modified fish developed by Taikong Corp. since 2001, said the company's finance manager Bill Kuo.

Kuo told AFP he saw huge market potential for the fish in China because "traditionally, gold represents prosperity and fortune to the Chinese".

Each fish will sell for 59 Taiwan dollars (1.80 US dollar).
..."

Welll...now I've seen everything...

;-)
Jing Zu
(11/26/2004; 09:21:22 MDT - Msg ID: 126745)
Last resort?
http://www.usatoday.com/money/markets/us/2004-11-26-gold_x.htm"� The U.S. Mint has sold 465,500 ounces of gold Eagle bullion coins this year, vs. 484,500 ounces last year."

"Gold prices have been pushed up by the dramatic fall in the dollar. Investors often view gold as a currency of last resort, a commodity that retains its worth even when paper money falls in value. The dollar hit a new low against the euro Wednesday, trading at $1.32 per euro."


**** It is not my currency of last resort! ******

It appears that the "Yellow" is trying to be "talked down"..


Buy gold.. Probably most of the gold Eagle bullion coins were sold to us? The {in the know ones} at the table.....



Jing Zu
YGM
(11/26/2004; 09:32:46 MDT - Msg ID: 126746)
Jing Zu...drop in Mint Coin Sales....
I'd be willing to bet the drop is due to Gold already in warm hands being sold into market to pay credit card debt and some folks thinking they're gonna cash in at higher prices.....I'll also bet Coin sales will be off the charts for some Dealers thru this period and beyond....YGM
Jing Zu
(11/26/2004; 09:37:30 MDT - Msg ID: 126747)
YGM - You are probably correct!
The end of the article has a nice ring to it....

"DiGeorgia thinks the weak dollar and soaring deficits could drive gold to $1,000 an ounce. "We're at the fulcrum of very interesting times," he says."

********** I say so also *********

$1000 and then some......

Jing Zu
ge
(11/26/2004; 09:41:04 MDT - Msg ID: 126748)
Ukraine vote
http://www.guardian.co.uk/ukraine/story/0,15569,1360298,00.html"The Russian president, Vladimir Putin, yesterday accused the US and the European Union of encouraging "mayhem" on the streets of Ukraine, and warned them against interfering further in the current election crisis."