http://www.nymex.com/media/delivery.pdfThe Freight Train picks up momentum as 10K Contracts are "noticed" on FirstND.
The game has moved on ...(to April) so PoG drops $4.

Question Oh White Wiz:-
Is it not "usual" for the "current Month" OI/volume to fizzle out more toward the END of the Month?

http://www.afr.org/Hultberg/013105.htmlAn Analysis of Antal Fekete's Plan for a Parallel Gold-Coin Standard. By Nelson Hultberg January 31, 2005
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Worth a read.

Dear posters, lurkers,
Is it maybe possible to put together a short list of articles that really enhances our understanding of world economic affairs?

My favorite three:

Peter Wartburton: Debasement of World Currency
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_01/warburton041801.html

Robert Blumen: Debt and Delusion
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_04/blumen081204.html

William Engdahl: A New American Century?
http://www.currentconcerns.ch/archive/2003/04/20030409.php

It could speed up understanding for new (and long time) posters!

I generally look at the war against gold by Western banking and political interests as a self-inflicted battle in a larger war between East and West. While the West is busily torpedoing all threats to its $ hegemony, the East is busily building its economies to a point that they will own all the hotels in a world Monopoly game. At the point where the bulk of productive wealth has been relocated from West to East, the $ will feel the chill of winter, and like frostbitten leaves will fall and blow worthless to the ground. Dust to dust, ashes to ashes, none will survive. In the meantime, the US rearranges the deck chairs while the ship sinks lower into a sea of debt.
The Euro zone sees the future and is preparing its lifeboat. The US has itself stuck in the futile battle of maintaining a currency on life support.

There seems to be some passionate controversy at the Forum as to how we goldbugs should behave. Ari, our puritanical wise man, preaches total abstinence from non-physical pleasures like a Baptist Preacher at an AA meeting. He shares his keen and sometimes abrasive views freely to our little audience and he often scolds those who in his opinion stray from the purist path or who profess heretical thoughts. Many other goldbugs here at the Forum have a more liberal outlook and like to enjoy a bit of non-physical spice. Many others of us feel the obligation to profess our faith, to proselytize like GATA. THE END IS NEAR, REPENT AND GET GOLD! For me Ari is a guru of money and for the most part apolitical. Look at it this way, if you haven't been scolded or applauded by Ari you haven't made much of an impression here. Goldbugs need thick skins when preaching to the unwashed masses. Don't let Ari get under your skin lest we lose you or him from the Forum. I have found it easy to pass over antagonistic posts because I know that their objective is to evoke a response. Silence is often "golden".

From yesterday......

"Goldilox (1/31/05; 21:41:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 128729)
Bickering
About a year ago, someone postulated on this forum that PMs rise when gold advocates are bickering. I hope this trend continues."

I have mentioned this by way of reporting that some analysts watch for this bickering. Adam Hamilton and Richard Russell are two who come to mind. Personally, I don't give it too much validity and see it more as a curiousity or commentary on the market price but...who knows?

There has also been some food fighting, during the last few days, at kitco, mostly between the administration and some of the regular posters. The issue there is the administration's complaint of too many "off-topic" posts. Sound familar? This issue seems to re-present itself with some regularity. They too, discussed the issue of the POG being so much connected with political events.

As for political events versus the POG, was there a Iraq election outcome "premium" in the POG before the elections? If so, has it been "washed out" over the last few days? If that election turnout had been very low and marred with numerous bombings, where would the POG be now? What would it take to return this premium into the POG? Just something to think about and probably not all that significant to the POG over the course of many years. I think of it in the same manner that a colder than normal short term weather forecast lifts the price of heating oil. Warmer weather then takes it back down. Some say that this price is a more accurate indicator of coming weather, in the Northeast, than is the weatherman...?? Again, short term issues. Hey, maybe when Aristotle and rich are fighting over who's going to buy the next ale, you'll know the POG is nearing the next price peak? No, no Ari, good Sir, it's my turn to buy!

Prediction; just for the fun of it, that the prices of both gold and silver may consolidate for a few more weeks, maybe even fall a little more (but not much or for very long below their respective 200 moving averages), but then start higher for an extended time with silver convincingly moving above the $8.00 level (which may become support?) When do we start up? Before the end of Feb. Please remember, this Rhode Island Red chicken entrail reading of future prices is just for he-haws. I'm no more clarvoyent than any of those who claim to be! But you knew that! Now, as for silver and soybeans trending together.....?
rich

http://www.ecb.int/press/pdf/wfs/2005/fs050128en.pdfIn the week ending 28 January 2005, the decrease of EUR 51 million in gold and gold receivables reflected the selling of gold by two Eurosystem central banks (consistent with the Central Bank Gold Agreement of 27 September 2004) and a purchase of gold coins by another Eurosystem central bank.

Gold an gold recievables : 125558,00 million euros.
Net foreign currency postion : 154,9 billion euros.

The world is more intricate and covert
then to explain things East vs. West.
Who is investing billions of dollars in
Macao's gambling industry? Who is
transfering trillions of capital into
the East from the West and thereby owning
a huge chunk of resettled manufacturing
industry and financial hubs?
Is this official East vs. West scenario
a manufactured one to keep things humming?
Forgive me please for too political a
thought; but for balance, I'm clasping a
pre 1933 European coin in my hand, acquired
from our host in times, when no-one had
any inkling that our government was "managing"
this precious. It also explains some posters
apprehensions who thought in good faith that
our government wanted us to buy gold and silver
coin, when now the tables could be turned and
we could be accused of "hoarding" it.
What an ugly thought. There really should be
pressure on it to refrain from such possibility;
after all, right now, a "communist" China is
"encouraging" such hoarding...It reminds one of
the "home-school" affair; when home-schooling
became more popular, there was a movement on in
Congress, to have parents officially qualify as
teachers to keep home-schooling. When millions
of phone calls jammed up the congressional
offices, the issue was dropped like a hot potato.
On the other hand, gold being such an important
political tool...I just hope the government can
avoid being trapped into extreme measures...other-
wise, we all have to bite the bullet...Yes, Jeanne,
just trying to stir things up a bit...OvS

PS.: Every investment is, to an extent, a gamble.
Holding pre 1933 g.coin, in my opinion, is a risk
worth taking.

Remember when we brave group of gold enthusiasts had only our own intuition, education, and perhaps a couple of fellows like James Dines to help with this awsome task?(dissecting events and defeating the enemy?)

Then came the World Gold Council--aha!--hope, hope--alas! nope, nope. They were born on, or went over to, the dark side.

Then came GATA, and with great flourish, they exposed what we all knew was the banksters carry trade scheme. Grazia! Mille Grazia! Then, for some vague reason over time, I found myself forgetting to attend their site--had "Puff, the Magic Dragon" "ceased his fearsome roar?" Dunno

Mostly, I found MK's forum to be so informative and nourishing, there was little need for other input. The great minds here IMHO, outclass anything else available.

Now, Captain Kirk never went into battle without his deflector screens up--and I read everything with my BS deflectors at at least one-third power. That said, I am in awe of the excellent analysis of many things here, ETF's for example. Yeah, I see it now! TYVVM!

For the most part, the discourse here is very civil. The clear mind doth seem to capture pure essence better than an angry or peevish one. Would that this extrodinary tone continue----for the alternative chances our suffering the fate of WGC and GATA. Got to keep my eye on the ball, as the banksters are throwing some very clever pitches these days.

A grateful toast to all!
Chin-chin,....ting!
Buongiorno!

Reports of GATA's death on this forum are premature.

At the moment GATA is:

* Supporting Blanchard & Co.'s federal lawsuit in
New Orleans against JP Morgan Chase and Barrick
Gold over manipulation in the gold market, a suit
that is the successor to GATA's own lawsuit in U.S.
District Court in Boston, which was dismissed for
technical jurisdictional grounds that have been
removed in the New Orleans case. The New Orleans
case has already prompted an admission from Barrick
Gold that it is the agent of central bank policy in
the gold market. The New Orleans case is scheduled
to go to trial in a couple of months and stands to
be very interesting.

* Sending representatives to financial conferences
and institutions all over the world to spread the
word of the gold price manipulation scheme and
encourage investment in the precious metals.

* Developing plans to replace the World Gold Council
with an industry- and investor-based group that will
actually do advocacy and investigation contrary to
the interests of governments and market riggers. This
will be a major goal of GATA's conference in Dawson
City, Yukon, in August, and we've had some success
already in publicizing the conference worldwide.

The USAGold Forum is an invaluable platform for
sharing information among gold bugs and I consider
it a second home, but people are deluded if they
think that the world will be much changed by gold
bugs just talking to themselves. Sorry, guys, but
action and engagement change the world, not Internet bulletin board postings.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

That my friend is a show stopper. You have vaulted leaps and bounds ahead of mere mortals with that perfect & quaint little story.

Yes indeed, I am a sinner! ;)

I have toiled for fiat and have bought the real thing. There certainly is a degree of irony & hyprocracy in the whole thing isn't there?

What a lovely message, I'm going to keep that. There must be a slant on that somehow for my 3 deliquent teenage children.

Truely, have a golden day.

When tuning in on what my voice of empathy whispers,I get an idea on what his message is and why he reacts (t)his way.Well,just trying to understand him and intending to share this (valid or not) view with you.Let me try to explain it:

He KNOWS that FreeGold is coming-with all its consequences.It is not just one of many scenarios randomly coming to pass in some time to come,it just exists,as a not yet communicated fact.Like for a child the sensation of heat or gravity.Now try to feel like a parent:"NO!NO! my little darling,the vase will fall on the floor when you push it over the edge!" The kiddy might believe it or not (rather not-there goes the vase...),it might start a lengthy discussion-this all won't change the fact.And the child will possibly libel its parents as arrogant,know-it-all etc-all distraction:the vase WILL fall down.Period.

The parents know it,try to tell it to its beloved little child and yes,get a bit too aroused at times.You might know this,or something similar when thinking a few steps ahead and then seeing the blind ignorants running straight into the trap.Being smart or arrogant is not easy to separate and often comes together (but you knew this as a Goldbug?!)

There are probably some facts as a consequence of FreeGold, they just have to be accepted by us "childs"!I know its hard (and I'm often struggeling!!) and most will touch that hot plate paperGold as it seemed to be harmless when the plate was cold.


Pretty heavy statement here by the Goldfather (smile,this used to be DROOY JoeCalamari...) "I have an inkling that Gold is being managed to the maximum extend possible in the final period before it explodes out of the grip of the financial fraternity .." ---or just Another way of saying "Gold to da moon!"?

http://www.nymex.com/media/delivery.pdfTopaz (2/1/05; 00:35:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 128731)
@ Gandalf...Comex FND.
===
Thanks for the data LINK, Sir Topaz ! Yes, that looks to be an increasing STOPPER listing compared to history !
Things are begining to show a CHANGE !
We shall watch this closely.
<;-)

Topaz (2/1/05; 00:35:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 128731)Tick Tock !

http://charts-d.quote.com:443/1002980432830?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=DX00Y∬erval=10&Ht=600&Wd=800&Display=2&Study=MA&Param1=13&Param2=0&Param3=&FontSize=10I need refresher lessons in "Cut and Paste" methods !
<;-)

You'll have to keep Bill out of Diamond Tooth Gerties dancehall...All those long gorgeous legs being kicked up by the Can-Can dancing beauties and the Faro Table & Spinning Roulette Wheels could make him forget about the 'Cabal'and his passion for a couple hours....Then again maybe you should take him...You guys need/deserve some R & R for years of work on our behalf...Just don't let him throw too much money on the Stage as I've done...See you there!...Ken

http://www.usagold.com/gold/special/grp.html

February Buyers' Group

The 20 Franc Collection

The European Union's effort to establish a common European market through the use of a single currency, the euro, is not the first time the countries of Europe have made an attempt at monetary standardization. This offer marks a previous effort fixed around gold...

Shop online or call the trading desk.
Order yours today!
1-800-869-5115

I was about to ask earlier if this was the third poke or prod to 84.1. But I suspect they will try to keep it's descent minimal leading up to Easy Al's fireside chat tomorrow, perhaps even give it a good boost in the morning before he speaks. Once that formality is out of the way we could be looking for an Angel Falls chart pattern, especially if Al's words and/or action lacks sufficient teeth (in the minds of the traders at least - we are already convinced that it is "too little, too late)

Thanks again for the chart!

It has already been pointed out by 968 that the net impact of two European gold sales and one purchase for the week ended January 28th was a decline of 51 million euro, bringing the reserves of gold and gold receivables to EUR 125.558 billion.

Previously unreported, but of at least as much significance, was that the Eurosystem allowed its net position in foreign currency to be trimmed back during the week by 900 million euro, thus leaving the said figure of EUR 154.9 billion.

It seems like only yesterday that the size of the foreign currency position was double that of the gold. As time unfolds, there has been no special effort to maintain the foreign paper position of the Eurosystem's portfolio, whereas gold, despite measured sales, has experienced a net gain due to revaluations. This marks a course that prudence should follow. Choose gold.

R.

http://www.thedailystar.net/2005/02/02/d50202051665.htmReuters, New Delhi
Demand for gold in India, the world's largest importer, is expected to remain bullish because of strong buying during the last leg of the wedding season and softer global prices...

...parents give the metal to their daughters for financial security....

^------(from url)-----^

A combined force of simplicity plus wisdom that bears repeating.

R.

http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Daily Gold Market Report has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.

Tuesday market excerpts

COMEX April gold closed at $422.90, down $1.20.

"Gold remains on the defensive on the belief the U.S. economy can miraculously boom despite a plethora of deficits and a consumer awash in debt," said Peter Grandich, editor of The Grandich Letter, an investment advisory publication.

"Friday's employment release is setting up to be the most likely influence on gold's near-term direction," he said.

But "the fact that the short position of large funds on the [Commodities Exchange division of the New York Mercantile Exchange] is the highest since 2001 and bullish sentiment has all but disappeared in the gold community, suggest we could see a major bottom in gold within days," he said.

A drop all the way to the $410 level can't be ruled out, he added.

For now, "with the dollar trying and struggling to move higher, gold is just not ready to go yet," said Dale Doelling, chief market technician at Trends In Commodities.

"When the dollar breaks, which could be very soon, gold should move back through $430 and far beyond that," he said.

Looking ahead, the market eagerly awaits two events on Wednesday's calendar:

The Federal Open Market Committee's announcement on U.S. interest rates and later, President Bush's State of the Union speech. And the Group of Seven, representing finance and monetary officials from the world's largest industrialized economies, will meet in Feb. 4-5 in London.

-----(see url for international economics news)----

Dump the NEOCONS

Excessive Federal Spending creating a huge debt bomb
They favor Illegal Immigration, unprotected borders, voter fraud
Unbalanced unfettered trade with Asia with forex manipulation
Interventionist foreign policies, wars
Lip service to the Christian Right

Bring back the real conservatives!
These NEOCONS are destroying the middle class!

The only way to protect yourself for now is buying gold.

!!!!!

http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh23473_2005-02-01_19-05-55_n01411133_newsmlNEW YORK, Feb 1 (Reuters) - The long-declining dollar will be on their minds when finance ministers from the Group of Seven richest countries meet Friday and Saturday in London, but analysts don't expect the currency's fortunes to shift any time soon.

No change is expected in the communique's language on foreign exchange, nor is China expected to loosen its pegged currency soon, which would push the dollar even lower.

With broad disagreement among global policy-makers about how to address the U.S. budget and current account deficits, few expect the dollar's prospects to change in the meeting's aftermath.

That's not to say the foreign exchange dilemma will not be high on the agenda.

"I am fairly confident that FX is going to be topic number one of the conversation."

...The communiques after the previous two meetings called for greater flexibility in exchange rates.

As the G7 meeting approaches, currency traders "are listening mostly to China," said ABN's Anderson.

^------(from url)----^

Almost remarkable in itself. If the U.S. no longer calls the tune as it did for long decades past, you will want to choose gold to help see you through the new era.

R.

@ LeSin msg#128706 : It is because a lot of history and present events have to be adsorbed and digested, that getting the whole gold-picture, is an exhausting enterprise.
Cavan man's reaction is evidence thereof. And he is here, right from the very beginning.
Copperfield's question/suggestion is confirming how difficult it is to get the whole picture.
Boilermaker is sending us very instructive posts. Ari keeps on emphasizing the "black and white" approach.
I wish to call for more "dialoque" (questions and answers) instead of fighting.

A/FOA have been providing us with a platform of thoughts/ideas. We should continue to build upon it and watch the events unfolding.
Example : Now that the general public knows that China is financing Putin's oil and gas policies...we can place another piece on the giant gold jig saw. More evidence that today's events are about the control of energy/resources.
Connect the fact that China has also liberalized gold.

Look what happened today with the US/Can goldmine(s) that were holding their product (gold) as a (wealth) asset !?
Where has the gold gone ?

The Gold Fields/Norilsk(Russia) goldmining story isn't finished yet. Russia has vital resources...now it wants gold !

But since we are supposed to remain "politically correct", we have to speak/communicate in general terms.
That's why the black(paper)-white(metal) controversy, keeps on living. That's why the euro-dollar fight is a divider.
Fixed ($) gold versus (�) floating gold. Gold-standard versus free-gold (read A. Fekete).

The � and the $ factions, are both on the move on multiple fronts. Hey, they even partially co-operate on certain fields. These paradoxes, is what confuses the classic goldbugs.

For the past 35 years, the International Monetary ($) System, was served with having gold remaining in the "grey"-zone (paper/metal). Now we are evolving to the "white" (metal) gold. There is an oil-"war" going on ! Gold will evolve out of its grey-zone together with the evolution(s) of this oil war. On top of this, there is a currency war ($-�) also the reason for having gold being grey.

In a political correct environment (an almost hysterical one), one cannot say the "war" word ! We, the global factions, all remain hypocritically polite (ideal aneasthetic) whilst trying to amputate each other's legs.

LeSin : Do you (still) need all the details as to underpin the general theories ? Example : The Sudan (Darfur) building crisis is simply China expanding its oil-interests overthere. Or,...do you wish to know all the details about the CBs + government agencies, slowing down on accumulating dollar-debt (consequences !) ? ...etc

Cavan Man : Do you really...really...think that A/FOA were "promoting" the euro currency !? Common man...what's the argumental reason for suggesting this ?

Ari : I say it here in black and white language : Accumulating physical gold in possession is NOW more wise than ever before.
You are putting the focus on gold from an historical/theoretical angle, whilst the timing of the change is rather a political affair. The * ambigious * US$ and EU� evolving relationships, are indeed complicated (complicating) matters.

All : Will peace and tranquility ever come in the oil world affairs (energy and resources) ??? I don't think so ! Because "power" means that one can go on exchanging something of value for something valueless ! To whom or what is created (organized) turmoil serving ? The gold-management falls under this theory of brutal power struggle...rather than polite market forces. And do we see more or less brutality ? Does this mean that we are getting closer or further away from gold-change ?


C. Powell (GATA) : Why is it that GATA isn't bringing the oil and euro elements into the gold-manipulation accusation ? TIA.

First, I am in complete agreement with your comment about action and engagement changing the world. I also respect GATA's motives greatly.
I do think we must be selective about where we aim our actions, if we want to achieve our goals. Getting stuck in the quicksands of anti-trust litigation is a tremendous drain on valuable resources, with little to show for the expense.

My questions:
Suppose GATA wins it's legal battles in court. Do you think the power brokers will be likely to respect and abide by the courts decision? Do you think we are still a nation of laws?
Because I do not. I think the Constitution is alive in name only. I do not see any evidence that the powerful have any regard for anything that erodes their power base.
Why should they? They have all the thugs, money and simple-minded rhetoric can buy.
I must agree with Aristotle that buying physical gold is a better use of resources then chasing after a gov't that answers to nobody but itself.

Best Wishes

...because, it's a THOUGHT. Where are the messengers? There is a part of me that still (wants) to believe in the campfire stories. However, seven years is a long time to ponder. For me, physical gold has been a GREAT investment--NOT insurance. I bought at $250 and continued to buy. I've not sold a farthing in part becuase of the the messenger's tale(s). Also, the clearing price absent A/FOA and political will to manage the price surely is north of $600 anyway. All the best from a "common man" (with uncommon sense IMHO)...CM

Where is your evidence that BLANCARD & COMPANY and GATA are mired down in the quicksand of anti-trust litigation with regards to the pending case? Are Blanchard's attorneys that ridiculously stupid to even pursue the case? Should we tell Donald Doyle or our BLANCHARD & COMPANY brokers to petition to give it up? THANKS IN ADVANCE.

I fully agree with you, that asking WHY A/FOA isn't posting anymore, is a very good (justified) question indeed.
I think that they have said all that had to be said and that their, goldhistory/ideas/thoughts/theories, are indeed evolving.
What exactly are you (or others) expecting from those former messengers ? Another theory...timetable...?
Or are you suggesting that they (A/FOA) had it completely wrong and that we simply should hope (stick to the idea)that gold continues to exist as it has done during the past 35 years ? A speculative metal with leveraged paper !? Are we simply waiting the metalprice reaching the arbitrary $600 target, take the (leveraged) profit and walk away to business as usual ?

You are not at all "alone" with the torturing gold doubts, CM ! It is eactly this phenomenon that should make you think and render you much more suspicious about gold's future that does not materializes as you and many others were expecting (hoping) >>> $600/Oz NOW.

You very much liked the campfires' stories...then ! Why not anymore, now ? Do you prefer the stockmarket, dollar, IRs, oil - stories, of today ? Are these stories coming true as they are pictured ? Dow=36,000...POO=$22-$28...IRs=+6%...rising US$ exch.rate...rising goldmineprices...flourishing economy and rising employment...global peace and freedom...end of gold-goldprice-management through legal action...

A/FOA's thoughts are evolving but not YET happening, after seven years. But just make a list of what "did" happen already apart from freegold. Do you remember the "zeuro" and oilprice stories in the then unsuspected times of campfire talks... !?

Do me a favor and explain us how you come to that $600/Oz figure for the metal and WHY exactly is it we haven't reached it already. Thanks for the dialoque, CM.

Today, exchanged currency- for a 1910-P $20. Saint. MS-62

Coming back from a full day of meetings downtown I see that I'm somehow responsible for "Another" Storm in a glass of water - "Sturm im Wasserglas" - thank god, not another Tsunami.

Our self professed opinion leaders of gold advocacy, sorry almost forgot "free gold" advocacy at their descriptive best are out to get your soul. It's more like the salvation army asking you - "have you read the bible lately?" - and even if you say- absolutely - they won't absolute you from their own interpretation of the script.

Well, that's a real treat and neat to hear the gospel you yourself have preaching forever. Alas, you've been negligent to preach the pure gospel, where God is divided from gold merely by a missing letter. The missing "l" is also apparent in the US (il-)legal tender FRN notes these days.

How I miss the old days of God bless America and the Dollar was as good as gold.

While the Pres is probably just now voicing his State of the Union mess(age - to be kind)I contemplate the flurry of posts by friend A(ri)and probably Belgian too and I feel somewhat - looking for a word - estranged, better probably saddened by preaching to the choir - the choir, not understanding the potential reality of your mantra.

A mantra, which has and will cost numerous investors a bundle. That's just a slight drawback to the
pure gold advocates being great in theory, poor though, in any practical sense. I've always been for the approach even MK has been preaching for years - physical gold as insurance as well as portfolio insurance. - The rest is waiting for Godot - and we all know by now, Godot never comes. And why should he - as he knows that the global PTB has "Another" agenda and will keep the system afloat - even as one of the main pillars the US-$ bites dust. The replacements are shaping up to fill the potential void.
And no, I don't think it'll be � in the longer run - it may well be the Yuan.
Anyway - we haven't seen a real bull market in gold outside of the US FRN notes yet. Be patient this will come - as with all patience the Ari and Belgian scenario may never unfold in our, nor our great kids future.
The globalized world as such has played for very high stakes and in this power struggle gold will remain a paria. A paria, which will eventually flex its muscles before it will be beaten down again for reasons political correctness or worse.
Meantime, I do feel we're at the early stages of a hard asset cycle - a cycle which may last for a generation. Lets grab the opportunities in front of us and let's not get waylaid by the pharisees. cb2

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?siteid=mktw&dist=moreover&guid={2F28BD9F-B99B-4FC1-896C-AA6F36A7954E}
Snippit:

"Gold remains on the defensive on the belief the U.S. economy can miraculously boom despite a plethora of deficits and a consumer awash in debt," said Peter Grandich, editor of The Grandich Letter, an investment advisory publication. "Friday's employment release is setting up to be the most likely influence on gold's near-term direction," he said. But "the fact that the short position of large funds on the [Commodities Exchange division of the New York Mercantile Exchange] is the highest since 2001 and bullish sentiment has all but disappeared in the gold community, suggest we could see a major bottom in gold within days," he said. A drop all the way to the $410 level can't be ruled out, he added.

For now, "with the dollar trying and struggling to move higher, gold is just not ready to go yet," said Dale Doelling, chief market technician at Trends In Commodities. "When the dollar breaks [lower] -- which could be very soon -- gold should move back through $430 and far beyond that."

"I think we got some flight-to-quality liquidation. Some folks had bought this thing thinking there would be a problem with the election; they all bailed out," said James Quinn, AG Edwards & Sons commodity commentator.


Black Blade: Nothing wrong with a huge short position. It does not take much to force a "squeeze" and watch the monkeys run. Over all and intermediate to long term, there is nothing that can possible stop this runaway train. The twin deficits are simply overwhelming and cannot be covered now. In short - "Game Over" for the US dollar. Right now it is simply a "currency war" or "competitive currency devaluation" in a race to the bottom of a bottomless pit.

Will allow some to see how YGM intends to gain more Gold Coins for my "Got Some" stash...YGM

First and foremost, I believe anyone who has written so exctensively, so passionately, so eloquently, so logically and so mysteriously as has A/FOA has not re-appeared either because:

1. They are dead
2. They fear the Patriot Act or some esoteric derivation
3. They like to write compelling fiction and are onto ANOTHER subject/ web site.

As to my holdings, I hold considerable physical gold--well over a third of NET. Next, I own EURO and junior exploration stocks. Finally, I own US T-Bills (alas).

Regarding the $600, I have read studies and studied opinions on the clearing price (supply equals demand). They have all been consistent. Perhaps plagarism is the fiend? Anyway, Belgian, I live in a NOW and MOVE ON world. I am held accountable for results and hold others to the same discipline. I still like the bedtime stories. However, it is time for a modicum of CONCRETE evidence for those of us who have been set upon this long, winding road. Best....CM

Thanks for your post. To try to answer your
questions.....

* I disagree with your characterization of anti-trust
litigation as "quicksand." GATA's anti-trust lawsuit
in Boston allowed us to get a lot of evidence on the
record merely as part of our formal complaint. It also
forced the U.S. government to declare on the record
in court that it claims the power to rig the gold
market. Blanchard's subsequent anti-trust suit, in
New Orleans, has forced Barrick Gold to admit that it
is an agent of the central banks -- and the New
Orleans lawsuit, unlike the Boston lawsuit, has just
achieved the power to compel the production of evidence
and testimony from the bad guys. We don't have to
win a judgment to win an anti-trust case in practical
terms; all we have to do is expose the bad guys, to
compel production of the right evidence and testimony,
since the gold price suppression loses most of its
utility if it loses its surreptitiousness.

* That may answer your first question: Will the
powers that be obey the courts? Maybe, maybe
not. But we feel that we win merely if we expose
the bad guys. What if it becomes public record,
admitted by those most involved, that, say, Morgan
Chase and Barrick regularly act as the agents of
the central banks and particularly the U.S.
Treasury and the Fed to rig the gold price? The
whole investment world will take note and begin to
act much differently as it begins to understand the
purposes of the gold price rig -- to deceive the
investment world and to help rig other markets --
and as it begins to understand that the real gold
price is not the price being reported every day.

* Is the United States still a nation of laws? GATA
will proceed as if it is and figures that much good
can be done by proceeding that way. But if the United
States is no longer a nation of laws, as citizens we
have to work to restore it. We have no choice. Most
of the power of the U.S. government is intimidation.
It can be beaten, especially in the open. Indeed,
as of now it IS being beaten in New Orleans.

* GATA is all for the buying of physical gold and
silver. Enough physical demand may destroy the
price rigging EVENTUALLY -- but then again it may not,
if the use of infinite derivatives financed by central
bank paper continues to fake gold and silver miners
into selling their products too cheaply. GATA
believes that action quite apart from the buying of
metal can hasten the end of the price rigging and
the creation of a free market in the metals. That's
why we do what we do.

Thanks for listening.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

I don't care that much about the pedigree of your huntin' dogs.
When there is meat in the locker, I will be quick to offer my praise and feast on crow.
Until that day, best wishes.

I would add as a #4:

4. They don't fhave the stones having wasted so much of everyone's (priceless) time; but this is unlikely and yet again, polemical.

I would say if you or anyone who is a "free gold" believer cannot look themselves in their spreadsheet and say "yes, I am 33% PLUS metal", then, I would say take a hike and get a life (I'm not accusing you personally). I mean, all the homage paid to the posters of yore; where are they now and why can't they talk plainly and not in riddles. Cut the BS! You've got your concept of how the market will unfold and others have theirs'. What's the problem and why the polemical tirades of Aristotle couched in erudite, intellectual discourse. The subject of GOLD is so long and so complicated, it simply cannot be boiled into a four quart "free gold" or GATA or ETF or whatever saucepot!

So, get diversified, buy physical gold and silver (from USAGOLD; MK is a PRINCE), buy some juniors and sit on liquidity because opportunities will present themselves to buy VALUE in different aset classes eventually! Rgds..CM

After shameless self-publicity like that, I had to go and look. I'm not sure, but do you mean being paid for being photographed ? (That is you in the photo at the Matisse Table, isn't it ?) LOL
C!

In the beginning of 2004 I wrote my outlook for this year:

"First, domestically, I doubt that anything will change much from last year. The market will continue up, commodities will continue up, the inflation rate will average about 3%. Interest rates have probably established their range of 3.75 to 4.50, basis the 10 year bond, and the dollar should only fall to 80-85 basis the dollar index." My assessment of where gold is going has changed a bit. I said I thought gold had another 100 dollars in it, making the highs near 450. I think we could go somewhere between 465 and 530, this year."
*****************************************************************************************

In trying to forecast what the Economic Landscape will look like in 2005, we first need the standard Caveat: Barring any crisis, which I personally don't see imminent signs of, and are rarely predictable anyway, the year should look something like this. First, the GDP is being estimated at 4% next year, give or take a half per cent. I'll take the under, and go for 3.5% or lower.

Inflation should run in the 2.75 to 3.25 range, a tad higher than this year. My reasoning is that I believe the Chinese currency will be revalued in 2005. That means that everything we import from China will tend to rise in price -- Walmart just won't be the same. But, I also expect exports to rise in price due to world growth, a declining dollar, and shortages of commodities. This is very unusual and will prevent inflation from coming down, even in the face of FED tightening.

Because I expect the FED to continue raising the Federal Funds rate, I expect the 10 year note to move up to the 5-5.5% range. I think that a Fed Funds rate of 3-3.5% will represent a neutral to slightly positive interest rate, and at that point, the Fed's tightening will end.

I think the DOW will trade 1000 points either side of it's present 10,500 area, and I think the dollar will range between 75 and 87 basis the dollar index. I think gold will be confined to within the 400-500 range, and my guess is that the dollar rallies towards the 87 area and gold falls to the 400 area early in the year. Timing is always iffy, but my reasoning is that as the FED continues it's tightening, it's going to start to pinch. Fears of higher long rates, lower profits and a slowing Economy, will be front loaded. However, once the markets have discounted the end of the Fed's tightening, the pressure will be off. Hence, it's logical to conclude that the first part of the year will eventually see a declining stock market and declining gold -- and rising interest rates and a rising dollar, and a reversal in these trends in the 2nd half of the year.
****************************************************************************************
There are several things to keep one's eye on in 2005 that are of critical importance. Will the Chinese revalue, by how much, and how do the markets take the adjustment?

Who will replace Alan Greenspan? He is scheduled to leave January of 2006, I believe, but his successor will probably be named in mid 2005. It will be especially detrimental to the dollar and inflation if the market does not trust his successor.

And lastly, how will the Bush agenda fare in Congress. Let me take some time on this one. George W. Bush just made a remarkable speech at his Economic Conference last week. What he proposed was absolutely Reaganesque.

If you remember, The four pillars of Reaganomics were, deregulation, free trade, lower taxes, and a sound monetary policy. It was a Radical program that fundamentally changed the direction of the US Economy from "Stagflation," to 25 years of prosperity, technological advancements, higher living standards, and monetary stability.

Today, Bush has proposed his own set of "pillars," that if enacted into law anywhere near their proposed form, could jettison this country into an extended period of unprecedented progress. In one speech President Bush has proposed dealing with the huge unfunded liabilities facing this country by reducing the deficit, and reforming both Social Security and the Health Care System. Reagan brought up this topic and was screamed down so strenuously, that as popular as he was, and with Republicans in control of both houses in congress, he never mentioned it again. In fact it has been a taboo subject in politics for a generation. ( Shows how far we have come, but the fight will be fierce, and is definitely in doubt.)

Bush also wants tax simplification and tax Reform, along with educational reform and tort reform, all very important initiatives. I must say, I like the talk, but talking the talk is one thing, walking the walk is another.

The key here is keeping your eye on the ball. Any privatization of Social Security must be acceptable to the markets. CATO, one of my favorite think tanks, points out that borrowing two trillion dollars to save 11 trillion is good refinancing and certainly better than defaulting on all, or part, of the 11 trillion by doing nothing. But it isn't the 11 trillion that we need to be worried about, it's the estimated 69 trillion we're on the hook for in Medicare. In effect the Government has written a blank check for the Baby Boomers scheduled to start using the system as early as 2008. By 2011, the" run" really begins. At least with Social Security, we can get a pretty good estimate as to what kind of money we need to come up with. With Medicare it is open ended and depends on the medical demands on the system. 69 trillion is only an estimate, and could be low.

It is in how they handle the Medicare question that will determine success or failure. But to be sure, Privatization is a step in the right direction.

As to Tax Simplification and reform, if it is a flat tax, and if it is transparent, and revenue neutral, then it is a "good" tax. If it is any other non transparent tax -- watch your wallet. A sales tax can be regressive and hurt the consumer, but a Value Added Tax is the worst. It's non transparent and designed to increase taxes in a devious way. It is one of the main reasons that Europe is doing so poorly.

Both tort reform and education reform, as envisioned by the architects of the bills are, I believe conceptually constructive, but watch the fine print.

All and all, I'm more optimistic than even a couple of weeks ago, given what I'm hearing. We will watch, we will wait, and we will witness what the future has to bring, in this wonderful and wacky world of Economics and Finance.

I truly appreciate your thoughtful response and respect your point of view.
Before last November, I also thought exposure of misdeeds would be sufficient in and of itself.
I have learned that rationality and reason are easily overpowered by emotional impulse when folks are spooked. Herds of nervous people are little different than herds of nervous cattle. One well timed shot, and the stampede is on. The "Bridge Out Ahead" signs will be trampled, and folks will still call evolution a theory.
I know, I'm cynical.

Best Wishes

@ Stevens (and Belgian)

Why is (in your opinion)a VAT different from a sales tax? Aren't they both gross consumption taxes?

I seriously doubt a flat tax would ever pass the special interest groups' and lobbiests' muster, as it would tend to penalize the large capital masses.

It sort of fits into the same mold as full SSI taxation. Adding the SSI tax to incomes beyond 90K is very unpopular, especially when means testing is even whispered.

-Goldilox

Yes you're right that is shameless...meant to be a dig @ do nothing but buy Gold attitude...Have to make money somehow...Maybe TC will delete...Sorry...Ken

Belgian, I am always pleased to read your contributions. Yes, I do agree with probably 95% of your conclusions, assumptions and strategies in ciphering this chaotic world of Gold - Oil - US$ - Euro - other player Yuan + Yen . Wow, it is complex,integrated incestuous, intriguing and marvellous.


Belgian said:
"In a political correct environment (an almost hysterical one), one cannot say the "war" word ! We, the global factions, all remain hypocritically polite (ideal aneasthetic) whilst trying to amputate each other's legs."

"Do you (still) need all the details as to underpin the general theories ? Example : The Sudan (Darfur) building crisis is simply China expanding its oil-interests overthere. Or,...do you wish to know all the details about the CBs + government agencies, slowing down on accumulating dollar-debt (consequences !) ? ...etc"
snip......

Sir Belgian,
Exactly, we grow ever the more hysterical when confronted with intellectual double speak (see A Greenspan). Or as a senior acquaintance calls it "intellectual flatulence" otherwise known as gas-bagging. Political correctness has now matured and grown to become a monster problem. Political correctness defies and does not condone simple, sharp, accurate conversation and the conveyance of thoughts and opinions. We now here people being silenced because "he/she is too opinionated". It has become correct to not have an opinion on anything. I for one will not buy into that type of brainwashing.

Yes!! A thousand times Yes! I am a simple person. I will never be convinced by any argument where or when I am dismissed because I require simplified and accurate answers. I am sickened by responses as, "it is too complex to provide simple answers". When, we all know, well and good, that the simple answer, if ever given or provided, would be understood by even the common man.

Yes Sir Belgian, I still require and demand in all facets of my life (business & social) to know the -

WHY? WHEN? WHAT? WHO? HOW? HOW MUCH? HOW LONG?

Cavan Man,
Thanks for chiming in. Have missed your thoughts - and the challenges that you present. Be well and prosper.

Cheers and thank you to USA Gold Forum - It is always a pleasure sharing with the great minds on this forum.

Yes, as a supporter of the REAL GOLD - GOLD THAT YOU CAN HOLD TOUCH & FEEL - Now 38% and growing of my net worth.
"S"

I wish to purchase a small amount of gold, for the best price possible, as a souvenier but there are too many variables that affect the price. For instance, there are sites that advertise $50 American Gold Eagles that have different prices for different years. Why?
One ounce of pure (.999) gold coins cost less than $50 American Gold Eagle coins which are .94% pure gold. Why?
Thank you !

Tom

History Channel in 10 minutes

10:00PM PST

@ helpme

Click the link "First-Time Buyers" above. For more info, call the number of the CPM office (our host), and they'll happily send you some introductory information.

Having lived in virginia City in 1995-6, that show held a lot of nostalgia for me.

Now they're starting an hour on the South Africa Gold mines.

http://www.usagold.com/gold/price.htmlThe reason one ounce coins of pure (.9999) gold such as Canadian Maple Leafs or Austrian Philharmonics may be cheaper than than the U.S. Eagle bullion coin (.9167) is simply a matter of market premium, not gold content. Each coin would contain a full net ounce of actual gold. The Eagle coin would consequently have a greater gross weight on account of its alloy. The same is true of the krugerrand, and it is "cheaper" than any other. The reason for the differing premiums on the same amount of gold is that various gold coins and bullion investment items have differing investment appeal in the global market. Sometimes this is because different types of coins meet different objectives.

You said you were looking to purchase "a small amount of gold, for the best price possible". What defines small? Tenth ounce? One ounce? Several ounces?

If you are looking for a good deal on tenth ounces, you can hardly beat tenth ounce Maple Leafs available through USAGOLD-Centennial. (see url)

If it is one or several ounces that you must have, by your criteria of "cheapness" alone you can't beat USAGOLD's one ounce krugerrands. (see url)

More sophisticated investment goals, however, might dictate a gravitation toward other gold items such as British Sovereigns or historic U.S. gold coinage, raw or graded.

For small orders, call the USAGOLD trading desk 1-800-869-5115 Ext. 110 for additional insights and friendly assistance. It's a fluid market, and therefore the opportunity for uniquely good deals can come and go daily. The only way to know is to call.

R.

Believe it or not, but your posts of today are what I consider, ENJOYABLE "real dialogue". 1/ "Waiting for Godot" and 2/ "Concrete Evidence" !!!

My simpliest of answers are "Nothing seems what it is" and "Realities go much further than fiction". And hasn't history given us "concrete evidence" that "Godot" doesn't exist. Aren't we always on the move (on the road) beyond our memory capacity ? Digestable wisdom and not intellectual flatulence, no ?

My intuitive rationale says that "changes" are indeed coming. Simply because the "statists" are being cornered.

President Bush's state of the union will be about "privatization" ! The same is happening in old collectivist Euroland as well. This is a dramatic "change" gentlemens (and ladies) ! The rationale behind privatization goes much further than the statist might imagine (fiction). FreeGold will be part of that privatization process. RESPONSIBILIZATION !!!

Behind the screens of public appearances, there are other people working on the changes. After each war, there comes peace again as night follows day.

Why have a "gold-insurance" when (as a statist) one is convinced that the paper-house will never burn (Godot)?
Is there not concrete evidence of "smoke" ? Yep, you will probably all agree about the smoke...but disagree about "fire", right ?
Same about the hot soup that never will be consumed as hot as it is served. A classic statist's view !
This happens all the time when "real ongoing arguments" are minimalized. And how many arguments are being hoarded here in the archives with on top the daily new arguments that are provided (detected).

Look at all the efforts that are being made as to minimalize the "insurance" function of gold. Realize how "contradictional" gold is presented to the public : insurance, hedge, speculation...etc.
You seem to agree that gold only has a symbolic function with some industry attached to it !? A planet that becomes recklessly ir-responsible has a lot of interest in keeping gold symbolic and denigrate gold's (freegold) real and original function of general responsibility.

Do you really think (are convinced) that this globalizing (changing) world can/shall/will keep on running on the established dollar-system !? The answer is probably "yes", because the "present" concrete evidence is saying so. I never believed that Godot ever existed...so I'm never waiting for him. I watch the changes evolving and know (realize) that "tsunamis" do exist !

The dollar "talks" INCREASINGLY about "tighthening"...Again. Do you believe that this talk (effort) will be somehow successfull ? What has 35 years of concrete dollar history learned us ? Statists, simply believe that the whole world will stick to the dollar train and will collectively go down, with it ! I don't.
Gold will NOT remain a "symbol" but will be re-instated in it's practical utility, 100%. And in a "process" there are only pieces of concrete evidence that keep on piling up.
This evidence is being burried with the thick anti fire blanket of goldprice management !!!
Thanks you for the nice dialogue, gentlemens.

It's true enough that a (short-ish) timeline on an individual basis of perspective can be highly significant, viewed personally with regard to its impact, while in the bigger picture of the social sphere of international developments, even a much muich longer timeline can appear to be a hasty event (from that perspective).

Personally experienced, seven years since the time of ANOTHER and FOA's economic expositions can be highly significant. However, their talk always had the flavor of an international scale of events, and from that perspective, seven years is not but a blib in time. I think they reasonably conveyed a sense of the timeline with the prediction that we would see this unfold "in our lifetime". No sooner, no later. But even there, it must be acknowledged that some of us are closer to the grave, some closer to the cradle. The timing "prediction", therefore, must be taken more as an indication that it will happen within a generation. Say anywhere between seven (with benefit of hindsight) and twenty years.

On a social development perspective, considering the whole of human history and developement, the financial evolution from the pre-WWI fixed gold monetary standard evolved relatively rapidly from 1914 to the post-WWII Bretton Woods gold exchange monetary standard by 1945. Roughly thirty years. (And during this time, we must not forget that Germany's currency system was hyperinflated into nothingness in a personal blink of an eye, culminating in 1923).

It was following a subsequent thirty years, taking us to the mid- to late-1970s, that the big picture evolved further, giving rise to the European Monetary System in 1979.

A subsequent two decades of exchange rate mechanisms and addtional evolutionary economic treaties gave rise to the EMU and the euro in 1999. Only six years into that system, one would be hard pressed to think it fully-fledged. It is a revolutionary new treatment of gold reserves in the grand scheme of the monetary system, a distinct departure from the original IMF model, that will define this currency system, and by design act to give it a competitive advantange over the cloaked unilateral system it looks to replace. Because this is politically driven, when it comes to matters of timing and social opportunism, who can possibly provide accurate predictions of precisely "when" and "how"? It is probably only fair to say that this latest post-post-Bretton Woods creation is too far along the gestation process to be aborted. The euro, in fact, is already a toddler, and day by day learning to walk better from nation to nation.

That isn't to say that some other currency won't outpace it. But it is likely that any such currency will be crafted around the same revolutionary floating gold model -- because, if for no other reason, that has become the state-of-the-art in central banking best management practices, driven by the common interest of warding off systemic risk and enhancing sustainability of the system.

The bottom line is that we are each unique individuals, with unique timelines based on age and income potential and past accumulated wealth. We must each therefore attempt to fairly evaluate our own situation and sense of personal immediacy as to how it might be ultimatley impacted or enhanced by the generational trend unfolding in the macro international environment.

To go out on a limb, I would predict that anyone who had at least ten years left in themselves could buy gold with the confidence that they will see themselves richly rewarded by the new paradigm's looming revaluation of their yellow metallic assets.

And as shown with the hyperinflationary 1923 Germany example, even as global trends can appear to unfold slowly regarding the monetary paradigm, local events can radically alter the perception and the immediate need for gold.

kind regards,
R.

This hackneyed phrase is clearly not given enough thought in our world nowadays.
-I have 33, 38, 100% of my assets "invested" in Gold (Bullion, Shares, etf's, and the like)- imo doesn't cut it ...not from a "Sovereign Individuals" pov anyways.

Gold just IS! $ or E or ANY price notwithstanding...and if you can embrace this concept, you'll know how/where/why to hold it.

Like your particular post very much, not in the least for the clear straithforward talk.

You (+ the majority) : ...Gold will remain a paria...We are on the early stages of a "hard asset" cycle...
Isn't this "also" a mantra, Sir !?

Concrete : THIS PLANET NEEDS (!!!) URGENTLY (!!!) A GENUINE (!!!) ECONOMIC RECOVERY TO DO ALL THE STRUCTURAL REFORMS THAT NEEDS TO BE DONE !!!

This is the clue, cobra ! All remain confident that we will get that genuine economic recovery and we will get it it...the dollar way !? Note my emphasis on "genuine". Will it be dollar-expansionary...as usual !? Can we keep on calling this a "genuine" (and stable) growth !? You will certainly say, yes. I don't believe in it and see the hyper-price-inflation as classic, historical solution of last resort. Simply because of that nasty zeuro (and its concept) that will always be in the dollar's way.

This is NOT a storm in a glas of water...anymore, dearest cobra. Again, I must emphasize that this globalizing world is changing in its "rapport de forces" (balance of powers).

The structural reforms that we "all" need to do are too big and all embracing. What kind of economic recovery can bear such a huge reform !? Did we make any reforms during the periods when there was a consensus on the growing (?) economy ? No we did NOT ! The need for structural reforms keeps piling up and the global economy is geting stuck deeper and deeper in its artificial stimulus environment.
We just keep on trying to "talk" it up whilst "colonizing" as never before ! We are now "producing" a false sense of relative stability. I am afraid that you underestimate the substantial evidence of this.

This is what produces the idea of "opportunity cost" on the gold matters. Keep on diversifying and you will make it through this tempory malaise. I still can't agree with this view. W've been talking already too long about the structural reforms that we all know very well, must be implemented. We don't "do" it, simply because we can't do it anymore. We went a bridge too far and the world keeps changing. It will change us, the complacent Western traditionalists. The building Asian force is a concrete fact and w're gone have to deal with it much sooner and more decisive than we ever thought. We will have to change...adapt ! Same story for the changing oil/resource-power.

The glas is not half full but half empty. The real storms have yet to come. I refuse to remain blind for the desperate actions that the colluding forces within the political economy are using to create a general atmosphere of calm and false stability. The kind of (any) growth that we might experience, remains suspicious to me. Yes, I do agree that this attitude (of mine) might be costly AS TIME GOES BY. But I made my choice and as long as nothing changes fundamentally structural...my choice remains valid. Maybe it is the fact that I can afford to make this particular choice, that is playing. But that's a personal (private) matter.

One last friendly remark : C. Powell is not answering my question. His silence tells me more than any answer ever could. I mean this "friendly" and with much understanding and respect!

WHAT A WONDERFULL CONCLUSIVE POST !!! What a wonderfull place this Centennial Precious METALS is !!!

And whilst I was enjoying your "balanced" reality conclusion, I watch the ongoing frentic promotion of the "contract" alternatives on the financial screen. Have more "contracts" instead of "real" things ! What does this evidence !? Contracts are representing a notional value (???) of already more than 200- TWO HUNDRED - TRILLION...wit a "T" !!! How can one possibly remain "insured" with a "fixed" ..."FIXED"...gold-wealth-metal !? Goes beyond me.

THANK YOU SIR !

Everybody (theee markets) is on hold with regards to the dollar. A. Greenspan...State of the union...G7.
When in doubt, the dollar is left alone !!! Where has that former evident $-safe haven effect gone ? This wednesday action is not an "isolated" piece of evidence but a significant (concrete) evidence of increasingly building, systemic aversion, from the dollar(system). Zeuro up and POG/POO consolidating.

They,...the financial media + TPoliticalPTB...keep on stressing that this happens because of "temporary" tensions that will fade away as time goes by !? What a mantra-esk theoretical flatulence.

I don't like to be pushed with my nose on the windshield as to prevent me from looking any further than the tips of my shoes. I wish to have gold's historical background as a magnifying glas (binocles) to look forward into the dark.

Feel the building tensions and fear about the IRs AND the exchange rates !!! One wrong "word" and one expierences a dramatic (financial) reaction. What does this say about our "situation" !? Can there be "intervened" ad infinitum as to keep separating the smoke from the fire ?

My understanding of the difference between a sales tax and a value added tax, is that a sales tax is taxed once by the retailer, but a vat is imposed at every stage of production. The producer is responsible for paying the tax to the government, therefore the receipts are less transparent to the citizenry than a sales tax would be. Between the two, the sales tax would be "cleaner" while the vat would be more insidious.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=GLD&t=3m&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=xauusd=x
The 3 month chart that you referred to in your msg# :128505 is back into alignment. Would you please expound on how you are interpreting this chart?

The swiss gov. has finally decided that the proceeds of its Goldsales will be distributed to cantons (2/3) and state (1/3) which btw is simply according to constitution.This will end all political discussions (=distribution according to its specific electorate).The most strange proposal was for a solution which will "keep the substance" which meant putting the money into an interest bearing fund.Well,the substance is mostly GONE now.

The money will now probably used to reduce deficits: state gets 7 billion sFr. on a total deficit of about 125billion,cantons can reduce their 150billion deficit by 14billion.Not a lot of mileage from 1300t of Gold if you ask me-but then we knew Gold is terribly undervalued.

http://www.usagold.com/gold/special/grp.html

http://www.sagecapital.com/Archiv/c271.pdfand on money and chocolate, among other things.

Imagine you're a government. Of course, you're bankrupt. That is the usual state of affairs.

Were you a corporation with 1000$ in liabilities and 1 ounce of real assets then in bankruptcy your DEBTS would be liquidated and the creditors would get a portion of the assets. Roughly, at the rate of 1000$/ounce. That is what bankruptcy is- debt liquidation. We mistakenly refer to "liquidation" of the assets, but it is the CREDITORS who are the ones being whacked with the ninnyhammer, i.e. Liquidated.

After bankruptcy, you the government are broke, to be sure, but debt free.
Ahh, but you are a government. So instead you liquidate your ASSETS (instead of your debt). You sell your 1 ounce for 20$ and 67 cents. The LUCKY BUYER gets a decent asset at a market price. You now have $979.33 in liabilities.

Upon entering bankruptcy you (the government) will have NO ASSETS and STILL have 99.9% or more of your liabilities (what's the gold backing of a typical government these days? on a balance sheet basis of course, since there's no convertibility... it's sub 0.0001 isnt' it)

Your creditors are REALLY liquidated.
I'll take the seat of the lucky buyer. (who probably got real paper instead of physical, but that's another story)

The swiss look a bit silly,
But SURINAME really wore the clown suit.

(makes that 1000$/ouce target look less tempting doesn't it?)

http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/press/monetary/2005/20050202/default.htmFebruary 2, 2005 Press Release

The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to raise its target for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 2-1/2 percent.

The Committee believes that, even after this action, the stance of monetary policy remains accommodative and, coupled with robust underlying growth in productivity, is providing ongoing support to economic activity. Output appears to be growing at a moderate pace despite the rise in energy prices, and labor market conditions continue to improve gradually. Inflation and longer-term inflation expectations remain well contained.

The Committee perceives the upside and downside risks to the attainment of both sustainable growth and price stability for the next few quarters to be roughly equal. With underlying inflation expected to be relatively low, the Committee believes that policy accommodation can be removed at a pace that is likely to be measured. Nonetheless, the Committee will respond to changes in economic prospects as needed to fulfill its obligation to maintain price stability.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Alan Greenspan, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Ben S. Bernanke; Susan S. Bies; Roger W. Ferguson, Jr.; Edward M. Gramlich; Jack Guynn; Donald L. Kohn; Michael H. Moskow; Mark W. Olson; Anthony M. Santomero; and Gary H. Stern.

In a related action, the Board of Governors unanimously approved a 25-basis-point increase in the discount rate to 3-1/2 percent. In taking this action, the Board approved the requests submitted by the Boards of Directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago, St. Louis, Minneapolis, Kansas City, Dallas, and San Francisco.

^-------(from url)------^

"even after this action, the stance of monetary policy remains accommodative"

Trying to print our way to prosperity may have a political shine, 24k gold plating, but once we scratch through the surface, through the exposed portion of glass we can see the inflation genie within, straining to burst out of the bottle. Were he here, Chairman Greenspan would remind us that once out, there is no easy way to get the genie back inside.

In its statement the Fed can talk as if it can, "at a measured pace", remove the current policy accommodation, but in practice in may find that measured rate hikes are merely an acknowledgement of the market's own forward rate depreciation as if already under the spell of the genie within. Something akin to the high interest rates you've seen in so many weak latin American currencies.

R.

http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Daily Gold Market Report has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.

Wednesday market excerpts

Gold rises after Fed interest rate hike

February 2 (CBS.MW) -- Gold futures moved higher Wednesday after the Federal Reserve did the expected in raising U.S. interest rates while leaving its policy statement virtually unchanged. COMEX April gold last traded at $423.60 in the after-hours session, up 60 cents.

Futures barely budged ahead of the rate announcement, prompting prices to close out the regular session at $423, up 10 cents.

The Federal Open Market Committee increased its target for overnight interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point Wednesday afternoon, in line with marketexpectations. The Fed didn't make major changes to its policy statement, once again concluding that policy "accommodation" could be removed at a "measured" pace.

The "Fed did as expected," and its policy statement was "absent of any hawkish statements," said Charles Nedoss, an analyst at Peak Trading Group. As a result, "the Fed was basically a nonevent," he said.

"Most would have thought that gold would decline as the dollar strengthened with rates climbing here in the U.S.," said John Person, president of National Futures Advisory Service.

But gold's after-hours reaction is a "good sign that gold may see more upside in weeks to come," he said.

The market's focus will be on President Bush's State of the Union speech later Wednesday "for any hints of action to stem the U.S.'s ever-widening deficits," said James Moore, analyst at TheBullionDesk.com in London.

-----(see url for 24-hr international newswire)-----

HEADLINES

Japan '04 gold imports up, investment key this year

Operations resume after strike at SA gold-mine

Union wants Gold Fields retrenchment moratorium

Euro Slides On 70 Year High In German Unemployment

Dollar Ends Mixed as Market Awaits Fed, G-7 Gathering

Make decisions about tomorrow's economy today

Federal Reserve raised interest rates sixth time since last June

http://www.futuresource.com/news/story.jsp?i=i4533036705416216640(Dow Jones)--The recent launch of a couple of exchange-traded
funds (ETFs) that track gold prices could mean more investor interest in the
metal going forward, analysts and traders say.

The first gold-backed fund was streetTRACKS Gold Trust, launched in
November and traded on the New York Stock Exchange. The
iShares Comex Gold Trust was launched Friday. It is traded on the
American Stock Exchange and sponsored by Barclays Global Investors.

Analysts say the new vehicles will allow retirement-type accounts to invest in gold, although
some of their appeal may also be to smaller retail investors.

"I think it makes gold more accessible to the retail or smaller investor,
who is maybe a little less sophisticated and not able to trade the gold
futures," said Todd Scholl, gold equity trader for U.S. Global Investors'
World Precious Minerals Fund and Gold Shares Fund.

"I don't think it will drive demand, but will probably increase the
awareness of gold. More people will know where gold is trading at and what it
is doing. It will maybe help the perception that gold is a real, viable
asset class."

He later added: "The more people out there who view gold as a real asset
and integrated part of any well-balanced diversified portfolio, that's good
for gold."

Nevertheless, he said, if it does influence the demand for the metal, it
will be only by "a little bit."

...Leonard Kaplan, president of Prospector Asset Management, doesn't
anticipate much impact from the ETFs on the gold market, although he added
that that "the jury is out."

Theoretically, it could mean more demand for the metal. "But I'm not sure
that the influence is as much as some people think," he said.

"Does it add to the gross? Yes," he said. "The question is what is the
influence? Certainly it's positive, but it doesn't appear to be horribly
positive. At least that's the history so far. I think it's a really a vehicle
that allows arbitrage between the stocks and futures, more than anything
else."

Kaplan figures the ETF gold shares will mainly attract stock-market type
investors who don't want to trade futures.

George Gero, senior vice president with Legg Mason Wood Walker, was the New
York Mercantile Exchange board member involved with the Barclays ETF project.

He said those most likely to trade ETFs will be investors with pension
funds or mutual funds not allowed to deal in futures.

Dan Vaught, futures analyst with A.G. Edwards, foresees two possible market
impacts of the ETFs.

"It seems like it could increase interest in gold investment because of the
relative ease of the transactions," he said. "It gives a person direct
exposure to the gold market without forcing a person to run into storage
charges that are implicitly built into the price of futures contracts or
explicitly when they actually buy the metal and get charged for storage."

However, he said, there could be potential to detract from some of the
demand for more traditional stocks of mining companies.

In the meantime, market watchers say gold is likely to continue taking its
cue from foreign-exchange movements.

"Right now, what's driving the price of gold is the dollar," said
Scholl. "We see dollar weakness in the future because of the large current-
account and budget deficits that the United States is running. So we see gold
going higher, if not in the short term, then in the long term. We could see
gold traded around $480 around the end of the year."

Said Kaplan: "The gold market is still tied to the dollar, irrevocably. One
of these days, it won't be. But for now, it is."

"One day in the future, gold will start to rally against all currencies.
But that hasn't happened."

^-------(from url)------^

A good question follows for investors who have money under certain investment constraints in pensions that can now be directed toward the name of gold through these ETFs:

If they commit a fraction of their pension funds toward these ETFs, will they as a result then feel sufficiently diversified in the name of gold that they are curbed from further pursuing any actual gold diversification for their portfolio in total?

That seems to be the legitimate concern of some market analysts. If potential physical "main street" demand is shunted into these ETFs instead, the banking community has thereby gained new control in the fulfillment of that potential demand without sqeezing existing street supply and precipitating an upward influence on its price.

The flow of streetTRACKS gold has already been roundly discussed. An informative insight on iShares ETF is that its shares can be issued against not only London Good Delivery gold, but also NYMEX/COMEX standard gold. And to the extent that some of the gold allocated to iShares is residing with ScotiaMocatta or acceptible subcustodians in New York and is of the latter standard (100oz or kilo bar), that gold will be listed not only on the iShares ledgers, but at the same time may be legitimately listed among the COMEX warehouse inventory.

There is definitely an elaborate confidence game underway, and many things you see may be for appearances only. That is to say, they only have presentation value. All show, and no go.

For the real deal, call USAGOLD-Centennial and consult with a broker about a diversification strategy that's right for you.

1-800-869-5115

R.

I would like to give Cavan Man credit by his post Msg# 128763 that lead to my somewhat unorthedox method of investigating as to whom are Another and Friend of Another. I do NOT want to know the their identity,but understand more about the Persons who have given us Great Insight. My method of investigating was a speed read of the archieves looking for specific words ,paying more attention to the personal response instead of the actions of the market and have come to the conclusion that they are far from DEAD. These Gentlemen/Ladies,are Crusaders of Gold may be in the late years but are well off. Like our Fed Chairman,Greenspan I hope they too may enjoy this post as they sip Brandy by the fire. It is interesting that they started at Kinco only to begin a personal dialog with Sir M.K. and that they continued to unveil vast amount of information of a puzzle that even today is being pieced together. Remarkable for seven years. To state that they are dead is unfounded for they may, as in many occuranes retired or have been taken out of the loop and the information flow stopped. An administration change or TPTB had decided their level information was to be lowered.
"Who am I" asked Another. "As I will not be around for long, so I am noone, but follow me as all of this takes place in your time." I believe he is not talking of death but a cutting off His information. He is not at the top but can see the top and so his resevervation for retaliation is at a low percentage. Injecting personal replies to questions , ( and I love this) "Timing will be nothing,What you are holding will be everything".
I relate this to a movie in which a great computer called Joshua was created by a scienctist and a child hacked into the defence grid. The computer asked, "Do you want to play a game?" Thermo Nuclear War was the childs reply. Another mentions this in his writings. What fitting comparison of Fiat to Gold!We as the child and Another as the computer.
Yet, Another did not know what Cloak and Dagger meant.
My thought he may reside in the USA but another inconsistancy is that he has at times many days between posting and tells us as if it was a business trip. He states he will write from another country so I assume he traveled intenationally. FOA is a GOOD friend of Another and shares his veiws and may well be a travel companion. I think a Lady who has been at Anothers side for many years and in whom he trusts greatly.
I hope that sometime in the future they may reveal themselves. I would gladly settle if they would gives us one more post.
Slingshot---------------<>

The problem with ten years Randy is, not one of knows if we'll have Another ten minutes.

Either does TPTB know for sure if they have ten minutes.
Slingshot-------------<>

I will say that their posting codes have never been deactivated and anyone who wants to read more of what you discuss can go to "Gold Trail-Thoughts" at the top of each page here at the castle. To our curious readers, I should say that if you've never read those pages, particularly the early exchanges, you are in for a treat.

Those were heady days back in the late 1990s and I think many of us yearn for their return, but I don't know if we could ever recapture all that. The net was young, and we were breaking through the glass. Many of us had just discovered the internet and began to see its potential as a way to get the word out on gold and combat its enemies on Wall Street and circumvent the mainstream press. We all owe a debt of gratitude to Bart Kitner too for showing us the way. Those of you who have been around since the beginning can recall, wistfully if you like, those days of discovery and Another thundering across our little corner of this vast new world. My first book had just been published when I came across Another, and he knew of my basic understandings on the gold market. Let's just say we were on the same page. (Still are, as far as I know.) He initiated his liason with me by calling a secretary and asking "Is there an e-mail where Mr. Kosares can receive more private mail?" He never announced himself. Asked only the one question, received his answer and hung up. My secretary mentioned the call only several days later after I told her I had received this rather incredible e-mail. I am not sure it was him, but it all kind of fit together. . . .

A good client and friend forwarded this just now from Richard Russell. Tell me if these views do not sound familiar:

"Everybody wants an answer to the question Marc Faber asked on yesterday's site. Namely, what ONE ITEM would you put your money in -- an item not to be touched or changed for the next ten years.

My answer -- Gold coins. Why gold? Because the way things are going, the way the US deficits are growing, the way China and Asia are 'coming on,' I don't see anything that I could truly trust to be 'there' in 2015. The US could be booming, the US could be broke, China could be a Superpower or a basket case. The world might be in peace or it could be in war. Anything could happen and probably will.

But I feel certain of only one thing -- gold will be wealth in 2015. Yes, gold may not be the best investment over the next 10 years, but it I will bet that gold will be there. And it will be considered wealth. In my mind, I can't say that with certainty about anything else.

So it's gold, baby, the time-honored, immutable measure of wealth, the untarnishable yellow metal."

Seems Mr. Russell pretty much sees things the way I do -- and Another as well.

"The bottom line is that we are each unique individuals, with unique timelines based on age and income potential and past accumulated wealth. We must each therefore attempt to fairly evaluate our own situation and sense of personal immediacy as to how it might be ultimatley impacted or enhanced by the generational trend unfolding in the macro international environment."

Happy is he who has only ten minutes, for he no longer has need to worry about how best to preserve his wealth through time, or take care for himself through another day. Am I right?

But when optimism sees a long life or an uncertain life ahead, it usually calls for some gold.

R.

Imagine one more post by Another, with one simple word!
Hello.
All that we have read. All that we have studied. All that has been shown to us would be as all the forces of nature combined into one force.

Another/Joshua. "Would you like to play a game" "How about a game of chess"
Slingshot----------<>

Yes Randy, you are right. The absolute bedrock of anyone's investments should be physical gold. There is no substitute.

http://www.usagold.com/goldtrail/archives/goldtrailone.htmlA correction, if I may.

At some time after 'The Gold Trail' was up and running, FOA requested that I deactivate the Forum posting codes for both himself and for ANOTHER. I assume it is because he didn't want to worry that someone could either guess the passwords or find them scribbled on a piece of paper and subsequently wreak havoc by posting garbage under their handles.

The only reason I troubled to bring this up is that I wouldn't want him to read your comment and mistakenly think that I failed him in honoring his request. It was honored.

However, their codes remain active at the 'Trail', and should they request new passwords for the main Forum, that request, of course, can be easily accommodated at any time.

R.

Then let me put it another way. If either/or contacted us to receive a new code, it would take all of 30 seconds for us to get it to them.

Back in the 1970s there was a maxim:

"The gold market goes down before the President speaks, it goes up after he speaks."

The last time he did this, I went away thinking "Who's going to pay for all this?" We will see what happens tonight and over the next several days. I wish our president well. There are many things I appreciate about him; many things I question. I wish a vote actually equated to Democracy. I wish we could talk down the deficit. I wish we could provide an easy life for all. The proof IN ALL RESPECTs will be in the pudding, and I'll always, go back to the philosophy of Ronald Reagan. It is not the government's job to provide all this. It's up to each and every one of us -- individually and collectively where need be.

Gandalf, I ask you:

Please warm-up that crystal ball. Is it time for a contest?

There seems to be a lot of confusion in regards to Another and FOA. They were not joined at the hip. The messages that they gave were like day and night. Another was a goldbug. FOA was a paper pusher.

Another might be looked at as an escapee. One who left the fold and told a story of the glory of gold. FOA was brought in for damage control. His purpose was to bring the sheep back into the fiat fold. And his message was the Euro.

FOA was a spin-doctor. For this he got his Sir. Just like
Greenspan, he was rewarded with near royalty, for managing the herd.

But Another was the one that came close to describing where its at. May his sole rest in peace.

I am going to travel for a while and watch the trail from a distance. It won't be long before the rains come and the ground begins to open; in that time I will return. Until then; this farmer will rest from this work.

Thank you USAGOLD and all the fine people that make this media the best gold site in the world! Another time, we WILL hike again.

Sir Douglas
Your Trail Guide

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B9CF59762%2D76B5%2D4AB6%2DBAF5%2D28EB7254411C%7D&;siteid=mktw
Snippit:

The "Fed did as expected," and its policy statement was "absent of any hawkish statements," said Charles Nedoss, an analyst at Peak Trading Group. As a result, "the Fed was basically a nonevent," he said. Nedoss said that with this weekend's Group of Seven meeting on tap, investors aren't likely to "aggressively" buy dollars.

"Most would have thought that gold would decline as the dollar strengthened with rates climbing here in the U.S.," said John Person, president of National Futures Advisory Service. But gold's after-hours reaction is a "good sign that gold may see more upside in weeks to come," he said.

The market's focus will be on Bush's speech "for any hints of action to stem the U.S.'s ever-widening deficits," James Moore, analyst at TheBullionDesk.com in London.

And Dale Doelling, chief market technician at Trends In Commodities, pointed out that Friday's "all-important January employment report could certainly bring an increase in volatility."

Traders also continued to eye moves in the dollar, and if the greenback "holds the recent lows made in mid-January and rallies, then gold and silver will eventually break down and make new yearly lows," he said. See Currencies.


Black Blade: Just in a "holding pattern" at the moment. The fundamentals remain rather positive for the precious metals and in that light nothing has really changed. Meanwhile accumulation ahead of any fireworks is a prudent course of action for now.

Did my eyes see what I think they saw?
IS HE BACK ?
<;-)

I shall have to consult my CRYSTAL BALL as to the ADEQUATE timing of the NEXT POG guessing CONTEST ---
Hint -- It will be SOON !
<;-)

Is that a light in yonder forest?

In my estimation, FOA was definitely not a paper pusher as you've tried to characterize him.

It is certainly true enough that the paper euro featured prominently in his many presentations. There was simply no getting around that papery focal point in the course of these discussions because the euro, as FOA endeavored to explain it, was the policy mechanism through which ANOTHER's Thoughts would play out (implementation) on a large public scale.

Just a thought.

R.

http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh43629_2005-02-02_16-52-40_l25274226_newsmlLONDON, Feb 2 (Reuters) - excerpts

GORDON BROWN, UK CHANCELLOR OF THE EXCHEQUER, FEB 2
"We must continue to make the right long-term choices about stability and growth..."

JOHN TAYLOR, U.S. TREASURY UNDERSECRETARY, FEB 1
Referring to principles G7 laid out at its Boca Raton, Florida meeting one year ago, Taylor told reporters: "One of them is let fundamentals (operate) in exchange markets.

"The statement is out there and that's what they want to continue with."

JAPAN FINANCE MINISTER SADAKAZU TANIGAKI, FEB 1
"Resolving the (U.S. current account) deficit just with currencies would be impossible."

SENIOR OFFICIAL AT JAPANESE FINANCE MINISTRY, FEB. 1
"Not being able to move its (China's) currency could pose various obstacles in the future," the official said. "(China) needs to make (the yuan) flexible again soon, though it should do it in a manner that is in its best interests."

SENIOR GERMAN GOVERNMENT OFFICIAL, FEB 2
"Pressure on China never helps."

EUROPEAN G7 SOURCE, JAN. 31
"The Chinese aren't going to change their peg to the dollar overnight," the source said. "What people are looking for is a controlled and gradual change. Nobody wants sudden changes."

I RUOGU, DEPUTY GOVERNOR, PEOPLE'S BANK OF CHINA, JAN. 29
"The world economic imbalance is attributable to many reasons, but not the exchange rate.
"China has not the capacity to address that so-called imbalance. We are not willing to do it, and we are not able to do it."


GERMAN FINANCE MINISTER HANS EICHEL, JAN. 28

"The U.S. twin deficits are a problem for the global economy."

"The imbalances must be reduced but not via abrupt decisions. ...In the long term, the U.S. government as well as households cannot take on foreign debt to the extent they are doing today. ... The only thing that can help is concerted action with everyone taking part."

^-------(from url)-------^

Change is brewing. Choose gold as your financial safe haven against an uncertain future.

R.

The dilemma : Let the "fundamental" market forces work freely or more and broader (firmer-more blatant) "intervention"...regulation...unilateral or multilateral (in concert) !?
Sort of a "to be or not to be" rhetorical question.
Time after time, the same conclusion : A free market economy AND an interventionist economy, don't work satisfactory anymore for a "broad" (broadening) majority. See TC's pr�-G7 overview.
The main factions on this planet go on blaiming each other's policies (mixtures of policies). An explosive state of status quo (immobilism).

Where ever one is or whatever one does...this is the one and only big growing picture that must be seen !
Germany has a record 5 million unemployed people !!! The Lissabon accords cannot be implemented and this is adding gist to the fermentation-process. Something has to, ...will snap.

A "NEW" mixture of free market economy and intervention will come out of this mess. This debt-driven political economy will lose its former "concertation" cement. W're (the building new factions) gone have fundamental differences of opinion (and actions) on the debt-problem, currencies, economic stability/growth, geopolitical positioning (block-formations).

Gold, fits perfectly in the above observation on free market and intervention mixture. That's why MK has it 100% right when stating that goldmetal in possession is the one and only tangible that one should hold...NOW... for walking through the next decade, and most probably, much longer.

It all boils down to a simple conclusion : Currency and its debt, shall not be taken as "serious" anymore when "Gold-Wealth" can (and shall) be re-instated, seriously and not symbolicly !!! In other words...only the soft goldmetal will be taken as "hard". This will bring the needed "change". That's what's brewing !

And Mr. Bill, it will (is) the euro-concept...and not the dollar or the eskimos... that has already architected this brewing mixture. It is "this" particular aspect (idea) that FOA has been presenting in his thoughts.
When the "global" economy is getting stuck, w're all left with only two options : Increase the fighting (nicely painted as competition) or agree on and implement the most apropiate (wise)solution...change...suitable for all !

The distruction of real universal wealth and having it replaced with virtual wealth is a dead end street ! It is exactly with the content (exact meaning) of the word "wealth" that many individuals are struggling with in these modern times. So is the globalizing economy also increasingly struggling with the question of final consolidation of economic activity (sweat). Simply because universal gold-wealth is empowering the individual and in competition with the exploiting conglomerates...constantly raping (abusing) the notion of (their) democracy. That's exactly WHY gold is a political metal. FreeGold is too much of freedom for too many people. A stagnant global economy must go back to much more real freedom in order to survive and evolve in prosperity. Yes, I wellcome the questioning of what freedom is...should be.

Heard this from a reliable source: Nout Wellink, president Dutch CB, stated off the record: Central banks must lie about interest rates and gold. He also stated that this monetary system one day will implode..

ECB leaves rates on hold 2%, probably up until the end of '05. Let's watch how the �-$ exchange rate is affected and if the effect continues after G-7.
Maybe Trichet (14h30) gives us a clue to justify the ECB's decision (on easy money policy !).
Note, that the � is stronger against the yen (Asia). The dollar wishes to divert Asian export to eurozone...called putting the burden on the EU and giving some relief to the dollar. What a gigantic play...or passing the hot/hotter patato from hand to hand .

You should see the smile on my face now ! Indeed Sir, >>> "MUST" lie...
Everything in exactly two lines...said by ...a dutchman (?) Magic. Don't disappear Copperfield.

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000039&cid=lynn&sid=amM.MX_vhlmESnippit:

Feb. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Oil, metals and even aircraft may one day be priced in euros, not dollars. Dream on?

As the dollar stays weak on foreign-exchange markets, with little sign of a sustained recovery, there is speculation that at some point commodity prices will drop the U.S. currency. If that happens, it would herald a wider realignment of the global financial system -- and would indicate that the dollar's reign as the world's reserve currency was coming to a close.

It is too early to conclude the dollar is finished. Yet the challenge is real and growing. The world may well be set for a period during which the dollar and the euro compete for reserve status -- hardly a promising situation for global stability.

http://charts-d.quote.com:443/1002980432830?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=DX00Y∬erval=10&Ht=600&Wd=800&Display=2&Study=MA&Param1=13&Param2=0&Param3=&FontSize=10Another run on 84 exhibiting a topping pattern?

What will happen with the dollar and its antagonist, gold, in case that military force is used against Iran (Syria) ?

IMNSHO....China will lead the charge of certain Nations dumpimg US Dollars/Treasuries and Gold will soar past the $500.00 mark in a matter of days, and the Dow & Duck will dump to the levels they belong or lower...Ken

I believe either or both of these actions will be the straw that broke the camels (dollar's?) back and will subsequently release gold from it's $-enslavement. Reasoning: the world is barely tolerating US projection of force as it is. And the few countries that are helping to prop up the $ will not see fit to funding another front in the war on "terrorism". Something's gotta give!

Druid: Your question scares me because I think that Iran could be a flashpoint both militarily/politically/financially and economiclly speaking where there might be no turning back.

http://charts-d.quote.com:443/1002980432830?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=DX00Y∬erval=10&Ht=600&Wd=800&Display=2&Study=MA&Param1=13&Param2=0&Param3=&FontSize=10Goldilox (2/3/05; 08:32:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 128818)
DX
http://charts-d.quote.com:443/1002980432830?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=DX00Y∬erval=10&Ht=600&Wd=800&Display=2&Study=MA&Param1=13&Param2=0&Param3=&FontSize=10
Another run on 84 exhibiting a topping pattern?
===
THANKS Sir Goldilox, this MAY be the one for which I have been waiting !!! We shall see SOON !
<;-)

http://www.usagold.com/gold/special/grp.html

I sure do owe you an answer, which will come eventually.

Meantime you've asked a very valid question concerning any further, whatcha may we call it, democratizing the ME? Who knows, as the real question should be something like democratizing Saudi Arabia; After all there is the most of the oil and it's still a feudal system. Well, that is something the US should be able to understand by now as their big government is more taxing than any feudal system in history.

I'm getting more concerned about the US's immediate neighbours doing more resource deals with China, India et al that even their peers are starting to sweat now.

... But to answer your question from an historical point of view - the Shah of Iran was supported by the CIA. After the Mullah's took over the same gang backed Saddam Hussein ... and on and on goes the saga of idiotic policies ... choose the CIA, the foreign affairs or the White House!

In the final analysis any attack on Iran will have repercussions of a magnitude the US will be totally help- and hapless to meet.

Insofar, the State of the Union Address was something related to declaration of War to most parts of the rest of the globe - IHMO!

A war, which won't be tolerated in any financial"sense" for much longer.

In that case - Got Gold - is a very valid assumption.

The time has arrived! The last bounce off 84.1 (barely made 84.2 but retreated..). Just a small measure of patience to be sure it does not puncture that line in late day trade and we shall be on our way. With gold beat down by TPTB this morn' this appears to be possibly the last great buying opportunity at these levels. I assume you have the Roo meat ready and waiting for 'the dogs', Gandalf? Or as the WWF announcer used to say:

"ARE YOU READY TO RUMBLE?"

Is it a coincidence that Bloomberg produces an article on commodities in euro (Coin Guy) and the increasing probability of military force against Iran. The more that there is (produced) triomphalism on the Irak + Palestine elections ?
Will/can Saudi Arabia (oil CB) or any other oilproducer, make up for the eventual outfall of Iranian oil in case of hostilities ?
Has anyone seen R.Perle's statements on Syria, right after the Iraqi election outcome was known ?

The EU will definitely go for nuclear energy, following France's lead with 70% of its electricity produced with nuclear reactors. Does this (brewing) change tells us something ?
TIA.

I did a search on google about U.S. army deserters. From 1996 to 2001, 18,000 deserted from U.S. forces. Since the war in Iraq, a further 5,500 have deserted and most recently, the Pentagon has decided to invite all deserters back to their units without disciplinary action. Over 1,300 young american soldiers have been killed and many more wounded in Iraq.
What would be the reasons given by the Administration to invade any other M.E. countries? The ROW knows that there was no valid reason for attacking Iraq and the ROW has not lined up to assist the U.S. in that endeavour. Iran has received huge infusions of capital, primarily from Russia and China to develop their oilfields.

I have always believed that the ROW will eventually stop supporting U.S. debt and I believe we are very close to that now.
As a neighbour to the U.S. the people of North America have a lot in common, but the U.S. gov't is way offside on their military actions.

We want to thank all of you who took the time to post the thoughtful comments on whether or not we should open the forum to political discussion. We have come up with the following format change to be launched this Friday at Noon Forum Standard Time (FST) on an experimental basis:

From Noon Friday (FST) until Noon Sunday (FST) the forum will be open to general discussion on the political economy as it relates to the financial markets including gold.

The general forum rules of decorum will be in place with the following prohibitions:

1. Personal attacks; slanderous or derogatory remarks; off-color jokes; lewd and/or lascivious comments; ethnic, religious and racial slurs

2. Foul language and profanity

3. Any slander or derogation of USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals (or any of its competitors) and posts that undermine or conflict with the business goals and client relations of USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals

4. Promotional posts in general. Examples include promotion of your organization, yourself (includes posting e-mail addresses), a company you work for or invest in, and promotion of internet sites and businesses that compete directly with USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals

In general, the same rules that apply to ordinary civil discourse shall apply here as well. Remember, this is an experiment. If all goes well, we believe this change will be a strong addition to our format.

On Sunday noon (FST), we return to business as usual, any posts that carry the political discussion beyond that time will be removed.

That should read "each" Friday through Sunday noon (FST). This, of course, does not preclude regular postings on the subject of gold as the poster sees fit.

Depends upon what you mean by military action. A surgical air strike such as Isriel used against Iraq, or our bombing of Yugoslavia on behalf of the UN and NATO, probably little effect on the dollar or gold past a few days.

"Ah!" You say, "This is different!" Yes, but still think it would blow over.

If you mean special forces inserted--that is probably underway for some time now, and no great effect unless someone really important somehow gets whacked.

Just do not see a major military action against Syria or Iran, but that WOULD be about the time we see the cheese sort of slip off the cracker! Dollar, if not already down, would be--gold, if not already up, would be.

Think we shall be just fine, anyway, as "Dollar Don Quixote" crawls out of bed for one last song. "Trade deficit of $60 BB, budget deficit huge--To dream the impossible dream!"
Buongiorno!

In response to Bongiorno's suggestion that a careful surgical strike similar to the destruction of Iraq's nuclear reactor might not act as the same catalyst as general invasion.

In distinct military terms, this is probably true. However, political tensions are quite elevated from that previous level in the ME today, and the ability to politically contain such an action may be severely limited by this level of tension.

It is pehaps not the action that will determine the "criticality" of such an event, but its potential catalytic effects.

With the US$ and gold in such tight holding patterns, I personally believe they are much more vulnerable to lesser stimuli.

Perhaps this seems on the surface less important than Sinclair's warning about "one drop of Saudi oil burning", but catalysts being what they are, any event that "inspires" retaliation could make things get more ugly in a hurry.

In addition, the longer gold remains in this "holding pattern" the greater for the potential for reactivity.

If military force is used against Iran (Syria), I do not think gold would move much. The present situation resembles Napoleon's Invasion of Russia in 1812. This is a war of attrition in Russian winter.

Although the US army is currently saturated at Iraq and Afghanistan, the Navy and the Air Force remains largely intact. The opponents would not confront this force directly, but retreat into winter.

I believe, gold move would come at the tail end, when all is said and done.

It is interesting to note that in today's action, gold and silver equities are taking a much stronger hit than the metals themselves.

The question this raises is, of course, what does this portend?

A stronger reaction when gold resume its strength, or a harbinger of more pressure on the equities?

I don't pretend to know the answer, but it's worth watching the action.

Yes, an interesting day. On a side note, I sometimes check the web site of an oregon dealer. I've noticed that the total spread on sovereign coins is in the $31 range, and for 1 oz kruggerands it is almost $14. The real oddity is in 1 oz US Eagles. At spot of 417.50, the Bid price is 425 and ask is 438.

I dont recall having seen a bid price so high above spot on any 1 oz product before. I dont know what to make of the sovereign prices either (they work out to about $435 and $404), perhaps somebody forgot to update the price information, or perhaps there is some other non-market driven excuse.

Comments? Maybe I should've checked the silver prices too?

http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh65847_2005-02-03_15-51-34_l0382293_newsmlLONDON, Feb 3 (Reuters) - Prospects for a new global accord on currency management at this weekend's Group of Seven financial summit in London appeared even more remote on Thursday after U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow called in sick.

Officials have already said that the G7 finance ministers and central bank chiefs are likely to repeat a year-old appeal for less volatile currency markets and more flexible exchange rate regimes when they meet over the next two days.

But no major new initiatives are expected to be announced to help achieve these goals. With Snow unable to attend with a cold, the chances of any breakthrough seem even less likely.

^--------(from url)-------^

Not that this one meeting was necessarily poised to be THE watershed event, but in any case it strikes me as highly unlikely that the mere presence or absence of a single political appointee (who's held the job for only a couple dozen months) can affect whether or not the wheels of the whole wide world will continue to move down their momentum-driven path.

Be a responsible custodian of your net worth. Diversify. Call USAGOLD-Centennial for consultation and exceptional prices on gold coins and bullion.

R.

http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Daily Gold Market Report has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.

Thrusday market excerpts

A combination of factors caused gold futures to break down through the bottom end of their recent range and settle with sharp losses on Thursday, traders and analysts said.

Some of the pressure was tied to remarks from U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown, who said a deal could be struck in the next few weeks to sell or revalue International Monetary Fund gold reserves in order to provide debt relief to poor countries.

Brown made his remarks about IMF gold in parliament ahead of a two-day meeting of Group of Seven finance ministers starting Friday in London.

He said he hopes the G7 would agree on the sale or revaluation of IMF gold ahead of the IMF's next meeting in Washington in April.

Meanwhile, in a question-and-answer session after the European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged, officials said they did not discuss the IMF gold-sale proposal.

A stronger tone in the U.S. dollar added to the metal's weakness, traders said. The selling accelerated on technical factors as the market broke down through its previous low for the year. April gold settled with a loss of $4.50 to $418.50.

Some liquidation had been occurring lately, and the day's events prompted more of it, related John Tyree, trader and analyst with Rosenthal Collins Group. He noted that open interest has dropped more than 100,000 lots since the high of a few months ago. Back then, the April futures had peaked at $460.50.

-----(see url for 24-hr newswire, market prices)-----

Snippit:

A combination of factors caused gold futures to break down through the bottom end of their recent range and settle with sharp losses on Thursday, traders and analysts said. Some of the pressure was tied to remarks from U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown, who said a deal could be struck in the next few weeks to sell or revalue International Monetary Fund gold reserves in order to provide debt relief to poor countries.

Black Blade: This is a repeat of the IMF Gold revaluation scheme allowing countries such as Mexico to "borrow" against their Gold held in trust by the Fund. It is quite amusing however, that the novice traders took this as a proposed Gold sale. The effects os a "sale" would actually hurt the very countries (mostly Gold producers) that it is intended to help. The likely outcome (if any) is a revaluation for borrowing purposes. Of course any "sale" would be just another shell game of shuffled digits with very little (if any) actual Gold entering the open market - much like the hoopla over central bank sales. Yet it is interesting how "weak hands" are so easily shaken. ;-)

http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2005/728/ec2.htmPublished in Cairo by AL-AHRAM (3-9 February 2005) -- The latest amendment to the sales tax law has triggered a long-standing dispute between the Sales Tax Authority and gold traders.

A heated debate at a recent People's Assembly budget and planning committee meeting ended without any of the disputed issues being resolved...

Gold manufacturer Maher Messiha said for manufacturers, gold is capital, not profit. "It is ridiculous to continuously impose sales tax on our main tool for production."

According to the Sales Tax Authority's Omar, gold traders were "advocating a lost cause. When a kilogramme of flour is manufactured into biscuits, it is taxed in the same way a kilogramme of gold is manufactured into different gold items."

Gold traders said the authority's analysis conveniently overlooked the fact that biscuits are consumed while gold is not; that discrepancy has also been at the heart of the distrust, misunderstanding, and lack of transparency between the two sides since sales tax on gold was first imposed in 1991.

Gold Division head Rafiq El-Abbasi said the traders were making a point. "Gold traders have made it clear to officials more than once that the sales tax in its present form has caused incalculable disturbance to a market that was once stable, healthy and growing."

Gold is not a disposable material, he said, "as it is used as a form of currency, and by some people as a form of savings".

A kilo of gold, he said, may change hands three times in one year. "Is it fair, or rather constitutional, to repeatedly impose a five per cent sales tax on the same sum of gold?"

.....Gold traders continued to insist that the law's deficiencies would continue to inspire an atmosphere of fraud. What seems abundantly clear is that neither party is really listening to the other at all.

^------(from url)------^

By contrast to the currency/investment line seen in Egypt, there is no VAT on gold investment in Euroland. Mere accident? You can be sure the answer is no. At its core, one could say the EU regime is supportive, and gold is being subtly "positioned", accorded this very special treatment. The answer of what that may be can be found on 'The Gold Trail'.

R.

http://www.freep.com/money/business/bankrupt2e_20050202.htm
Snippit:

BOSTON -- Costly illnesses trigger about half of all personal bankruptcies, and most of those who go bankrupt because of medical problems have health insurance, according to findings from a Harvard University study to be released today.


Black Blade: Another reason to your financial house in order. Should the bread winner in your family become incapacitated are you prepared? As always, get prepared, get outta debt and stay outta debt, stash enough emergency cash for several months household expenses, accumulate Gold and Silver "portfolio insurance", and start a storage program of nonperishable food and basic necessities - just for such an unforeseen event as illness or injury. In other words - Just use "common sense".

Trichet said nothing new and on the forex front nothing fundamental is changing. The existing major trends will simply continue.
The rising tensions (threats) in the ME don't result in a flight into the dollar anymore, because of the existance of the euro. The question remains... which aspect of the dollar will be affected : Its reserve status ?...its exchange rate ?...its political status ?...all 3 aspects together ?

Trichet emphasized again his vigilance about the �-POO. Thus the POO is indeed affecting monetary policy...resulting in intervention on the exchange rate, probably with intervention on the POG as one of the tools.

Will an action on Iran result in less monetary concertation, globally ? The ECB left its rates on 2% and seemed to be rather confident that the IR differentional with the dollar would not affect the exchange rates (�-$) substantionally (carry trades-?). Significant !?

Do we see evidence here of currencies (and economies) all going their own way...as being planned already, whatever the (shocking) events !?

Have the G-x meetings become a meaningless (insignificant) routine ? Are wars and the cost of these wars not affecting the already lost dollar anymore ? Does this mean that freegold is already a theoretical given ?
How can one possibly believe that the dollar deficit will be halved within a half decade, when nothing concrete is suggested as to "how" this might happen ? Both, EU and US see the enormous problem of social security, AGAIN...and none can possibly fix it ! What are monetary policies going to change on this unsolvable major problem ? In the mean time, more debt piles up faster and faster with the rising tensions. Freedom and democratization are a very costly affair. Can the dollar (or other currencies) afford such ambitious enterprises ?

Will a conflict with Iran only be another catalyst or the final straw that makes our international financial system collapse ? For how long can things remain relatively orderly ?

Isn't it extremely cynical, having old Mandela coming down to London and ask (beg) for help...and on his arrival, he gets a lower POG as a starter !? IMF "revalues" its gold and Mandela (Africa) gets a "lower" price for his gold.
There is so very much behind all this...that is unfortunately not allowed to be said in public...or risk to be stoned.

@ TC : Nice to hear that the Egyptians also realize that no tax should be imposed on bullion (trade). Once gold has been transformed into jewelry (being industrialized), value (craftmanship) has been added and a value added tax on the work (not the metal) is absolutely normal.
When one exchanges cash from hand to hand, there is no tax either. In Euroland gold bullion changes hands with no tax. There is only a buy and a sell price.
Egyptian bullion traders give evidence that they still know very well what gold exactly means despite the bastardization of the metal by their government.

When governments do see that their citizens start increasingly trading bullion (under whatever form)...they get pissed. Imagine a significant rise in pure barter trade the Argentinian way...The controllers lose their all embracing "taxing power" ! Just like Antwerp might very probable lose its long tradition of diamont trade to taxfree Dubai where a giant diamont tower has been build, close to the taxfree goldmarkets.

When governments increasingly lose their taxing power, for whatever reason, they have to stop their re-distribution of their own printed confetti. And then we land in the "what is wealth" debate. The wealth of the ruling conglomerates lies in their monopolistic privilege of permanent exploitation of the masses. As long as their system works, not much will change fundamentally. But the fact that the POG remains hyper freezed, tells me that gold is threathening the controllers. Euroland gives evidence that it is thinking differently (than the dollar) about gold's future and its controlling status. That is as deep as I can get.

There's no wonder to why the EU interest rate remains at 2% or whatever. Just look at what was reported in the German economy yesterday.

Snipped from a Bloomberg report:

The number of people out of work in January rose by 227,000 to 4.71 million in seasonally adjusted terms, including 230,000 new jobless claimants, the Nuremberg-based Federal Labor Agency said today. The adjusted unemployment rate rose to 11.4 percent, a seven-year high, while the unadjusted jobless total passed 5 million for the first time since the war.

It seems clear that things on the old continent are not moving ahead smoothly in economic terms. European growth last year was what? 2%?

And I'm not here to Europe bash; it is clear (to me anyway) that China is in the process of beginning to clean the Euro clock's as well as the American clock's!

Will China change interest to Europe from the U.s. now that the Euro has appreciated so markedly in the past couple of years? We can doubt it. China is a shark amidst a school of lesser fish; eating left or right where ever it be pleased. China is an equal opportunity opportunist.

Who's that Chinese bank minister? Le Sin? But who-ever, he recently stated that the U.S. problems are not their problems. Well, duh!! The Chinese still have 50,000,000 people to put to work! I doubt they care if the dollar falls to 10; they'll still be making stuff for 5cents an hour to ship over here. Point is: We can't devalue the dollar enough to make a difference to China, and neither can Europe; (though at this time they're on the other end of the teeter-totter.)

Here in the Wal-Mart nation, our only alternative is to just keep feeding them dollars, until they blowup!!! Kind of like that shark from the old "Jaws" movie, that was eating everything in sight, until he finally swallowed that oxygen tank. Whoa! what an explosion!

Poor old Belgian--we all seem to be living in the land of the free and the homes of the screwed, as soon the only jobs may be in government, financial paper, and general service sector. If you move to make anything--some
a---ole, from somewhere's going to copy it, and send it back to you at half of what you can produce it for, no matter how much you cut costs.

You bet. They have over a 1,000,000
computer engineer graduates looking
for a job.

Belgian,

The previous time Gordon Brown seriously agitated for IMF sales (under the banner of HIPC debt relief) was in the early spring of the eventful year of 1999.

When IMF sales were not forthcoming, as a bolt from the blue suddenly the UK itself announced that summer that it would be a gold seller. I don't recall that a direct correlation was trumpeted at that time between those sales and debt relief, so I was always left with a suspicion that a lifeboat operation was more than likely the hushed motivation behind it all.

(Those few prestigious institutions of the City are, after all, about the only banking group these days that are still vulnerable to an actual bank run. Dealing in bullion, they are unlike commercial banks in the sense that they do not have recourse to an inexhaustible lender of last resort, and must go begging for any manner of help such as they may find it in times of shortage.)

As those surprise UK sales swept the gold market to 20 year lows, it was significant to see the European central banks rally together and respond quickly with their market-supportive Agreement by the end of summertime.

Interestingly, by the end of the year the IMF finally gave a nod to Brown's earlier notion of debt relief, but they did it through off-market gold revaluations, thus setting a bit of precedent and keeping the book closed on actual sales that would draw down IMF physical reserves.

With Brown now agitating again under the banner of debt relief for IMF gold sales (or revaluations) these six years later, one has to wonder is he truly the world's leading humanitarian, or is there another angle?

If debt relief is the legitimate reason for the clamor, precedent calls for revaluation to be the more likely alternative put into effect.

But in my assessment of the less likely event that sales of IMF gold stock are selected by the 85 percent voting power majority of members, I would tend to interpret that as a sign that various of the IMF members (France, Germany, others?) are simply wanting their gold back (as seen in the mechanism of the restitution precedent of the late 1970s).

Having sold a fair amount of HM Treasury gold, maybe the UK itself figures prominently among them -- most especially if the Bank of England anticipates that any future lifeboat operations may be necessary as the LBMA's business heads toward mothballs, witnessed as ever-shrinking clearing volumes over the past eight years.

Viewed from that angle, the two new gold ETFs introduced on the New York and American stock exchanges can probably be most properly perceived as another device in a long train of them devised to preserve institutional liquidity as they are always uniquely vulnerable to actual demands for physical deposits and the resulting insolvency.

Do you sense that there is anything to this? Meaning, gold will stay, one way or another, in official hands, whereas the reason for making all the public comments is to serve a temporary political purpose.

R.

I don't completely understand this obsession Gordon Brown has with the IMF gold. I'm sorry, but I don't believe for a minute that the Chancellor of the Exchequer is motivated by the stench of third world debt. I think we all remember that the last time Gordon Brown stumped for IMF sales, he failed. The IMF opted for revaluation. The result was that the Bank of England let go of a good portion of the British peoples' gold reserve. Now he's at it again.

What is really behind all this volley and thunder?

In my view, Brown's activity now signals the same thing it signalled in 1999 -- the beginnings of a major move upward in the gold price. I would consider one of three scenarios:

1. One or more bullion banks are in trouble in Londontown and gold must be found for the British government and central bank to fulfill the lender of last resort function (Brown is simply trying to get ahead of the curve.), or

2. This is just another campaign (ala the Andy Smith scenario) in a larger war to keep the bullion banks supplied with enough metal to satisfy the needs of the huge gold carry trade (which goes on longer than I ever anticipated it would) and keeping it from going bankrupt, or

3. A combination of both one and two, in which case Brown sees himself as killing two birds with one stone.

Brown's hope is that he can steamroll sales. The talk about revaluation is just camouflage. The Bank of England sales were directed inventory placements -- not sales but a bailout camouflaged as a sale.

In a long talk with our Sitemaster this afternoon on this subject, he pointed out to me that other members of the IMF might be very happy to receive their gold back in a revaluation/sales scheme, not thinking it of great use to them at the IMF. Others might get it back and want to sell. What Brown is hoping for, in his view, is sales. As for the LBMA, I would not be surprised to find out at some point along the way, that this was nothing more than a machination to free up gold to meet the demand requirements being faced by the bullion banks.

In other words, I'm going with number three.

This is not meant to be a comprehensive analysis of the Gordon Brown recurring obsession with the IMF gold, but simply some groundwork to encourage further discussion.

At this juncture, I would like to reprint a brilliant statement from UK's Sir Henry Tapsell which I have posted here before as well as in our newsletters and in The ABCs of Gold Investing:

"The whole point about gold, and the quality that makes it so special and almost mystical in its appeal, is that it is universal, eternal and almost indestructible. The Minister will agree that it is also beautiful. The most enduring brand slogan of all time is, 'As good as gold.' The scientists can clone sheep, and may soon be able to clone humans, but they are still a long way from being able to clone gold, although they have been trying to do so for 10,000 years. The Chancellor may think that he has discovered a new Labour version of the alchemist's stone, but his dollars, yen and euros will not always glitter in a storm and they will never be mistaken for gold."

Tapsell made that statement in 1999, just before the Bank of England let go of the British gold at cyclically low prices ($250 to $300). My question is what happens if Brown runs into a wall this time around? What if the verdict is no sales, no revaluation. Then where will the price of gold go??

By the way the Chancellor Tapsell refers to above is Gordon Brown!

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2-1469989,00.html
February 04, 2005

Cover-up row over �27 billion secret of Black Wednesday
By Philip Webster, Political Editor

snip
HIGHLY sensitive Treasury papers on the events leading to Black Wednesday in 1992 are being kept secret at the request of John Major and Lord Lamont of Lerwick, Prime Minister and Chancellor at the time, The Times has learnt.
Senior Treasury officials are furious that the documents, which should have been published under the Freedom of Information Act on Tuesday, are being held back, apparently on the orders of Sir Andrew Turnbull, the Cabinet Secretary, to give Mr Major and Lord Lamont more time to study them.

During the 1999 episode, I did not hear Eddie George howl in pain at the suggestion of BOE sales. I heard talk instead of peering "into the abyss."

There is also another quote that showed up in the Embry report about Merrill Lynch's Ted Arnold publicly asking for a bailout -- saying something to the effect that the authorities needed to do something about the rising gold price. I can't put a year on that out of memory, but it suggests what I would call "institutional thinking", or at least the presentiment that those in the private sector felt they "could" show-up at Threadneedle Street with their hands out. To me, it almost came off as a threat of the same.

Chris, do you have those quotes handy? I think it would be good for our readers to read them in this context.

I know what you are trying to say, Invisible Hand, but I think there may be somewhat of a seamless relationship between Her Majesty's Treasury and the Old Lady of Threadneedle Street.

Gordie Brown is not exactly the brightest bulb on the English Isle. It was he who orchestrated the BOE Gold Auction disaster that resulted in huge losses and a misappropriation of the British peoples Gold. These so-called auctions (actually "give aways") occurred when the price of Gold was at its lowest and now the enormity of the losses are being realized. Of course a politician, even a simpleton like Gordie, does not worry about being held accountable simply because they count on the short memories of the masses. It was a few years ago after the BOE Gold Auction disaster that Gordie Brown said that he was going to resign - obviously he lied - but then is that really surprising for someone, especially a politician, with absolutely no honor or self respect? Hmmm...

- Black Blade

Now, now, BB

Your last line says it all. Brown very likely lacks honor and self-respect. That doesn't mean he is without brains. It is rather more suggestive of which loyalties his brainpower serves.

Gordon's gold sale obviously hurt the British people and government, but the correct question is, "Who benefited?"

Contrary to the platitude that so often passes the lips of the most likely conspirators, I suggest one should not rush to attribute to stupidity that which can so easily be rationalized by high level corruption and greed.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=$GOLD,PWTBDANRBO[PA][D][F1!3!!!2!20]⪯f=GTHAT there are now a Million and TWO (1,000,002) reasons why GOLD will soon head "TO THE MOON, Alice" !!!
AND that is why that the latest POG (price of gold) guessing CONTEST will be start very SOON !
Why am I giving this advance notice ? BECAUSE, I wish to advise ALL YOU LURKERS, that you should get your POSTING PASSWORD from the TownCrier ASAP, by using the LINK atop the TABLEROUND FORUM page !!!
HURRY, and do not procrastinate any longer.

http://www.futuresource.com/charts/micro.jsp?s=GC1%21&s=DX1%21&s=TYXY&s=CL1%21&s=&s=&s=&s=&p=D&v=15&b=LINE&d=LOWI'd expected a run-up on Yield to accompany the Dollar rise Yesterday but it failed to materialise ... so the potential for a hike to DX95+ still lurks!
altPoG @ B348.67 has taken a hit too, down from 355ish.

The "stoppers" on Comex now number over 14K this month which is still good for a counter-trend $PoG+$ rise to break the "Currency Gold" concept once and for all.

An idea whose time has well and truly come!

With political/moral weight now firmly behind Gordon B, a sale is a gimme in the days/weeks ahead methinks.

LONDON, Feb 3 (Reuters) - The strength of the euro against the dollar has become less of a concern and is not considered recessionary for the euro zone economy, a European G7 source said ahead of a meeting of the Group of Seven rich nations.
"The exchange rate is no longer the cause for concern that it was a few months ago," the source said. "It's not considered a recessionary factor."�
A major factor behind the dollar's slide late last year was investor concern over the ballooning U.S. current account and budget deficits, which many analysts see as a threat to overall economic stability.
The G7 source said the euro zone was eagerly waiting "to see if the commitment (by U.S. President George W. Bush) to halve the current account deficit in the next five years is backed up by policies."
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Strange comment from this source? Why is the exchange rate suddenly no longer the cause for concern that it was a few months ago ? What's changed in between ? Any thoughts ??

Forget about G.Brown. He's a straw-man (facade). Sorry, but I wish not to elaborate further on the matter. Time will tell.

@Goldendome : Be assured that Euroland knows its own particular weaknesess, very well. Germany's revision on unemployment statistics is a deliberate alarmbell. The needed structural reforms have to (and will) be implemented, "orderly" and within a much bigger frame than the borders of the expanding old-new continent !
In a few words...Euroland is being ridiculed, because something very particular is causing a constant pain in...!
And on the EU - China, relationship...we learned our lessons out of the US - Japan, relationship.

Euroland and the AA-block are two completely different (differing) animals. But since the world is dominated by the media responsible for the AA perception formation, Euroland remains percepted as a pr�historic fosile for the larger public. I even think, we like it that way.
This particular aspect on top of the realities is very important, because there are reasons why this is so.
Think of the above when you think about the gold matters.
Merci beaucoup cher ami.

http://www.ecb.int/press/pressconf/2005/html/is050203.en.html(This first sound-bite works fine in isolation)

Trichet:
"we in the ECB have an enormous stake in markets functioning fairly and correctly. This is absolutely decisive. Market economies are based on market assessments, market price-setting, which is, and must be, fair. If it is not fair, we would be far from the optimum in terms of economic functioning. And all what we are aiming for would not function correctly. So I make this point very strongly."


Question:
I have a question concerning proposals to sell IMF gold or even revalue it to finance debt relief. What is the position of the Eurosystem?

Trichet:
That is not something that we have discussed recently.

^----(from url)----^

When an institution that has essentially become a rival is still holding on your behalf not an insignificant amount of your gold, I'm sure that exit strategies and such related items are among the things that are never discussed "recently". Wouldn't want the IMF to take premature umbrage.

R.

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/GB04Ad08.htmlSNIPS :
"If China does not ease controls on its currency within six months, it will face a 27.5% tariff on all exports to the US under legislation to be introduced in the Senate on Friday."

"Reacting to the news, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Kong Quan said legislation "is not the right way ... "
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
More currency wars ! It seems that China is not so afraid of such a bill (they might see it as a means to cool down their economy a bit, and use the bill as an argument to evolve more to the euro-faction). This will certainly be discussed when Trichet meets the Chinese delegation in London this week.
As Belgian said : how long can the ungoing events evolve orderly ?

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/images/norcini020305.gifThe $ and � are playing cat and mouse ! Call it a struggle, a fight, a war or whatever. Chose who's the cat or the mouse. The main point is "orderly change"..."gradual transition" !!! It is about "euro stability" and keeping this stability even during the hard times of structural reforms !!! All those statements are meant to not awake sleeping dogs. What if all pitbulls wake up together and rush to put their teeth into gooooooooold !!!

The US$-index (84), today...IS ONLY AT A 10 YEAR LOW (1995)!!! You have seen nothing yet...all the fuzz about �/$ exchange rate level is "yadayada" ! Cat and mouse are still "playing" whilst mama gold is quietly ironing.
Illustrated in a nice chart from Dan Norcini, the sympathetic Texas trader (see link). Watch how the ($-POG)-RSI is nicely "doming". Have a close look at the '99 WAG spike-off as the startshot. Can you imagine the consequences when at this level (+/-$400) we have Another one of such a shot !?

Do you remember that I mentioned that a representative of the German industry stated we can very easely live with a 1,40 �-$ exch. rate !?

This global economical beast will have to abandon its dominance plays with the "fabrications" of currency exchange rates !!! Emphasis on "fabrication". And fabricated they are. Herein lays the (ugly) answer to MK/TC question...
The euro (EMU) was the first step to eliminate our internal fights (fabrications) of exchange rates ! The next step will be...euhhum... somewhat bigger. Golden (and not Gordon).

Yes, many are hoping/wishing a gold-shock (another spike off restart). But why was the US$-index capable of stopping its decline exactly on that 80 maginot line !? Hahaaaa, what a funny coincidence.

968, you must remember two little small gold-details in our miniscule lilliputan land : 1/ Tobback asking Eyskens, WHY he wasn't putting a VAT on gold. 2/ F.Verplaetse and Dehaene, stating that the Belgian goldsales (?) were good business. Unfortunately you may not remember the circumstances under wich these lapsusses happened .Period !

http://www.china.org.cn/english/culture/90403.htmChinese Flourishing Period, the world's first newspaper printed on gold paper, is available for Beijing collectors.

The 20-page collection focuses on China's past ten sessions of the top legislature and the top advisory body and records the prosperity of Chinese cultural, social and economic development.

The rare edition is printed on 16,000 square centimeters of gold paper, and the luxury edition is on a sheath of 39,000 square centimeters.

Collectors can have the gold book from Wang Fujing Book Store in down town Beijing.

(Xinhua News Agency March 16, 2004)

http://www1.china.org.cn/russian/156745.htmChina's interest in gold is growing.

Page in Russian. Translation:

Sales of gold "Olympic" bars started in Beijing today, which marks the first time in the history of the Olympic games.

Source: China Internet Information Center, February 4, 2005.

http://www.usagold.com/gold/special/grp.html

http://urbansurvival.com/week.htmvia Geroge Ure:

The latest speech by Sir Alan is out today and is says that the Fed Boss sees some relief coming for the balance of trade deficit.� The whole rap is on the FED WEBSITE but here's a few remarks which we read and predicting inflation in prices of imported goods:

"A consequence of the contraction in profit margins of exporters to the United States, and thus low pass-through of dollar depreciation to U.S. import prices, has been minimal pressure on U.S. consumer price inflation in recent years. A corollary is that the adjustment of U.S. real imports--that is, the quantity of imported goods and services--has been negligible.

However, we may be approaching a point, if we are not already there, at which exporters to the United States, should the dollar decline further, would no longer choose to absorb a further reduction in profit margins.

Although the limited response, to date, of import prices to the dollar's decline has likely forestalled a decline in U.S. real imports, the effect of the low pass-through of exchange rates into import prices on the nominal dollar value of imports, and thus on the trade balance, is more complex. Increases in import prices lower the quantity of imports but leave the resulting value of imports uncertain."

Stripped of FedSpeak, what Easy Money Al is saying is that our balance of trade will straighten out quickly if the price of Hondas and Toyotas goes through the roof.� And that, pal, is inflation - and that should be wildly bullish for gold prices. That is, if anyone takes the time to figure out what that FedBuzz "However, we may be approaching a point, if we are not already there, at which exporters to the United States, should the dollar decline further, would no longer choose to absorb a further reduction in profit margin" means inside the US.� Inflation.

It appears that a lower dollar has completely failed to act in behalf of trade rebalancing so far.

Greenspan' statements suggest to me that he expects global suppliers will have to act when their margin pain threshold becomes too great.

Added to another story about possible tarriffs on Chinese goods if no Yuan depegging is insite, it looks lile the currency boyz would much rather see manufacturers take the heat for trade imbalance than besmudge the currency crowd.

- Goldilox

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2005-02/04/content_2548269.htmsnip:

�LONDON, Feb. 4 (Xinhuanet) -- The United States will not support Britain's debt relief facility plan for the poorest countries in the world, the American Treasury Under Secretary John Taylor said on Friday.

����He told a small group of reporters who travelled with him to the G7 finance minsters' meeting in London that the US has its own"bold" proposal for debt relief for the poor countries.

����British Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown has pledged touse Britain's presidency of the G7 to push for a scheme delivering full debt cancellation, trade benefits and financial assistance for the world's poorest countries under an International Finance Facility plan.

����He said earlier this week that Britain "will be trying to persuade America that debt relief and extra finance for development is in its interests not just because it is good economics and social policy but good for its security as well."

����He also said that "if the US wants to separate the extremists from those that they are trying to influence, it makes good sense to show how industrial nations can implement a Marshall Plan for developing countries."

����So far Britain has already secured the backing of the three other European members of the G7 -- Germany, France and Italy -- for its international finance facility, which would double annual aid flows to 100 billion US dollars a year.

����Brown said "we are demanding action this weekend from the G7."

����But it was understood the US President George Bush has meanwhile launched his own development initiative for impoverishednations.

����Taylor said "not only does the IFF not work for the United States, we don't need the IFF, " referring to Brown's idea for a new International Finance Facility and writing off debt to poor countries.

����Taylor also said that the US is "not convinced of the need" to sell International Monetary Fund gold to finance debt relief.

-Goldilox

Competing "plans" for debt management at the G7. Does Taylor want the EU to stop spotlighting gold, or just stop considering writeoffs? It's fun to watch these guys play "hot potato" with their economic "colonies", while third world trade deals continue to complicate their spider webs.

http://charts-d.quote.com:443/1002980432830?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=DX00Y∬erval=10&Ht=600&Wd=800&Display=2&Study=MA&Param1=13&Param2=0&Param3=&FontSize=10@ Gandalf,

Reading the DX requires a neck brace this morning. Some $ shorts got handed their heads on a paper platter.

http://www.usagold.com/gold/special/NethDucat.html

http://charts-d.quote.com:443/1002980432830?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=DX00Y∬erval=10&Ht=600&Wd=800&Display=2&Study=MA&Param1=13&Param2=0&Param3=&FontSize=10Well that caps the 84.1 BARRIER and NOW the POG Contest may BEGIN !!
<;-)

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ A "PRICE of GOLD" GUESSING CONTEST!! $$$$$$$$$$$$

We shall have a price guessing contest on the closing (Settlement price) of gold for the April COMEX contract (GCJ05) on Wednesday, February 16, 2005, ---BUT all entries must be posted to the TableRound before Midnight on Sunday, February 13th.

The "Price of Gold" (POG) Contest winner -- the person with the closest price guess to the actual Settlement Price -- will receive a nineteenth Century 20 Lira Italian Umberto I coin, (which may be seen at the following LINK).
http://www.usagold.com/gold/coins/ItalyUmb.html
These coins were Minted between 1880 - 1897 with a Fineness of 0.900, which therefore contains an
"Actual Gold Content" of 0.1867 net fine troy ounces of pure GOLD !


There will be also be two runners-up prizes for the next closest prognostications --- each winning an one ounce U.S. Silver Eagle.

THE RULES -- (We MUST have RULES !!) --- PLEASE READ !!

1) The Winner is the poster with the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX (most active) April 2005 Gold Contract (GCJ05) on the date of Wednesday, February 16, 2005.

3) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $421.0)

4) "Guesses" shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT BOX location AND enclosed in markers of "Dollar Signs" so as to be OFFICIAL !
(Such as $$$$$ $421.0 $$$$$$$ )

5) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! "FIRST COME" has rights to that "Guess".

6) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes MIDNIGHT (24:00) on Sunday, February 13, 2005.

7) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY--- (as this part MUST accompany the Price prognostication)
--- In order for your entry to be valid, entries will be REQUIRED to answer the DIFFICULT and controversial subject by "Determining and COMPLETING the following statement": <;-)

I read the USAGOLD Forum ( how often? ) because ------ (in 25 words or more!).

--
LET the CONTEST begin !
===


"COME ON IN" all you Lurkers ! Now is the time to get your Posting Code from the TownCrier at the Link at the top of this PAGE !

I read the USAGOLD Forum almost CONSTANDLY, (when I am awake), because one of my two computers and monitors is DEDICATED to the LINK
http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/default.html
because this is the place where TRUTH and all important golden information is discussed in depth by both GAINTS (male and female) and the "common man" , due to the foresight and generosity of the TableRound's Host, Mr. Michael J. Kosares.

Constantly !
(Darn fingers are not following brainwaves)
<;-)

With Ass't TreasSec Taylor stating that the US is "not convinced of the need" to sell International Monetary Fund gold to finance debt relief, we are still left with the question on Gordon Brown's obsession with gold sales.
Why is he so insistent on selling the IMF gold? My view is that it is the most easily and fattest target that could be sighted on the periscope.

The question now becomes: "If this holding is so badly needed, what happens if it is suddenly and convincingly taken off the table?"

In the last go around, UK's gold was brought into play when the IMF push came up dry. What about this time around?

G Brown offering a Lifeline, for the Benefit of the World?
Another or FOA mentioned this slant once before

Granted,
I've never seen a Lifeline with a noose attached to its end, but there's a lot of things I've never seen.

http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ibsys/20050204/lo_wplg/25696383
Million Missing Nickels Found

(snips)

The search for $180,000 in missing nickels ended in the back yard of a Miami-Dade County house today.
---
Law enforcement officials searched the home this morning and found nothing.
---
When agents went over the back yard with metal detectors, they hit on the more than 3 million nickels. Officials said the coins were buried in a wooden box, covered in a thick clear plastic tarp buried in a 4-foot deep hole. The coins were still inside Federal Reserve (news - web sites) bags, according to police.

If any remains, this hoard stays in the WEST. Perhaps this is Another sign of global monetary bifurcation?

. We are about to enter a new era. Things will begin to progressively change over the next 10 years that will affect every aspect of our lives. This will be, for lack of a better title, the decade influenced by the 4D's.

The first D is the dollar. The dollar should continue to decline, in most likely, an orderly way for years to come. Economics dictates that dollars that have been spent abroad must ultimately return to these shores and be spent here. This will lead to huge increases in US exports and Tourism, as foreigners compete for cheap American goods.

While this will lead to higher prices of many goods and services, to US Citizens, the ability of the US to increase production to meet this demand should mute the price increases to some extent. Meanwhile, US import industries will suffer, and American travel abroad will slow markedly. So, it will depend on who and where you are in the economy that will determine whether you will gain or loose by the falling dollar. But, one thing is for sure, the standard of living of America will be less than it otherwise would be.

The second D, is for deficits. No one talks about budget surpluses any longer. Given the absence of Government spending limits, the on going war, the prospect of further foreign entanglements, and greater demands for Government spending, it is only a question of how big deficits will be.

There are three ways to finance a deficit: Raise taxes, borrow, by issuing more government bonds, or inflate, i.e., increase the money supply to pay the bills, which amounts to an inflation tax.

Depending on which of these choices Government employs will determine the economic consequences. Of the three, borrowing is the least coercive. It is a voluntary act between debtor (the government) and creditor (the investor). It affects interest rates to some degree, and therefore affects us all. It is also a claim on the American tax payer, since ultimately it is the tax payer that is the guarantor of Government debt.

Increasing taxes or inflation would be far more damaging than borrowing. Chances are, that in the not so distant future, all three of these choices will come into play. So, watch the size of the deficit as an early warning sign of possible higher interest rates, taxes, and inflation.

The third D is for debt. The amount of consumer debt has been growing progressively. However, so has wealth. To this point household debt has not been a major factor, and I doubt that it will be in the future. But government debt is another story. The present National Debt has recently passed 7 trillion dollars. Given the inevitable future deficits, this figure will progressively grow.

However, this is not our major problem, our real problem is the unfunded liabilities, the promises of Medicare, and Medicaid, that are estimated to be in the 60 to 70 trillion dollar area. The promises are there, but the money is not. Where will it come from? Most likely, the usual suspects: Higher borrowing, higher taxes, and higher inflation.

Lastly, is Demographics. World population is rising, and Capitalism is spreading throughout the world, replacing communism and socialism at a furious pace. As people learn to produce more, they need more commodities. We are already experiencing the first stages of a run on commodities.

For example, above and beyond the increased demand coming from China and India, and Eastern Europe, we have a new source of demand -- investment demand. It has been recently reported that Pension Funds, who hold 25 trillion dollars in investable funds, are looking to diversify by buying commodities. Because of the new investment demand, there are funds being developed that buy commodities and issue shares against them. The Pension funds are looking to buy these commodity funds, which will, in turn, lead to commodity funds buying more commodities. So, look for higher prices and shortages of commodities continuing, and prepare accordingly.

Then there are the Baby Boomers, all 77 million of them in this country alone, all starting to retire in 2008. This will have several ramifications. First, they will all want to go on vacation. They've worked hard and now is the time to go on that "dream vacation, " This time not for a week, like they always had to do, but for a month. Where are they going to stay? If they are somewhere for a month a hotel or motel room won't do. They need a kitchen, which means they need a Condo or apartment or house. There is no way that 77 million potential vacationers are going to find a vacation home, when they want one.

All of the hotel and motel rooms will begin to be in less demand as the business traveler shrinks, and the vacation traveler expands. This is one of the reasons why housing prices are going up. The Boomers are already positioning themselves by buying vacation homes in the locations they want to spend time. Any real estate that is connected to tourism has risen dramatically.

Look at any chart of any home builder and you will see it going straight up. Look at a chart of Starwood, they are in timeshares and resorts -- straight up. The travel industry is about to change dramatically, so position yourself now for future vacations. If this is a Real Estate "bubble," it is only in its infancy.

So, we have a commodity shortage, and home shortages developing, but that's nothing compared to the much more serious doctor shortage we are about to face. Consider the prospect of 77 million Boomers with a blank check in their hands for medical care. It is already getting harder to get a timely appointment with a doctor. With the aging of America, will come greater shortages of doctors and nurses, and non-critical medical problems will go on the back burner. Prepare to wait in line for good medical care, in the future.

Demographics will drive another area -- investments. As The majority of Americans get older, their investment goals will change. Keeping money will become more important than making money. This should lead, and probably has already led to, less demand for stocks and greater demand for bonds, money market funds, and cash. This could explain why the stock market has gone sideways while the bond market has remained stronger than anticipated. It may also explain why so much cash has stayed on the sidelines. Values are changing, and with changing values, comes changing markets. History in the coming years WILL NOT repeat itself.

All of these observations and forecasts are tempered by one fact -- INDIVIDUAL CHOICE. At any time, we as a nation can change problems, that appear inevitable, by solving them. The fact that the nation is in a very public battle of ideas, today, is a positive thing. W. C. Fields once said, " There comes a time when you have to take the bull by the tail, and face the situation." This, I submit, is such a time.

All in all, we are entering a challenging new future that will require new approaches to new problems, but as always, it WILL be interesting.

Thank you

http://www.futuresource.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=GC&o=100/DX&a=D&z=610x300&d=LOW&b=LINE&st=DX-UP, Yields-UP, SM's-allUP ...and Gold @B349.26-UP.

IMF:- They all seem to have different agenda's here, The Euro croud look to de-toothing the Tiger, The US it appears want to keep the teeth right where they are ...and Gordon is desperate to become PM via altruistic gestures toward the 3rd World. His Sell Gold/Invest the proceeds/Apply the yields to debt relief MO is of course so 20th Century ...Two Birds Gordie can clean up.

http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Daily Gold Market Report has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.

Friday Market Excerpts

"Like a deer caught in headlights, gold bulls have been frozen by a mirage of bearish factors like IMF gold sales and an unjustifiable belief that the U.S. dollar is entering a long-term bullish uptrend," said Peter Grandich, editor of the Grandich Letter.

"Delusions over the current account deficit and some magic fix to the U.S. deficit are supporting dollar," said Ned Schmidt, editor of the Value View Gold Report, "so it's really another great buying opportunity for gold."

"The gold (market) in general has been under pressure because of the fact the dollar has shown some vitality in the last month or so," said Bill O'Neill, one of the principals with LOGIC Advisors. "That has been the key overriding factor. There also has been some speculation that there potentially could be some IMF gold sales, although I think that's very questionable," said O'Neill.

"And technically, the market has broken down a little bit. But with that being said, I think the market is just in a corrective phase and it will resume its uptrend. The key, when you're talking about the gold market, is the currency market.

"If you're a believer the dollar is going to rally significantly, then you should be selling gold. If you're a believer that the dollar is going to resume its downtrend - as I am - then you should be buying gold."

Gold futures ended at 3-1/2-month lows for a second straight day Friday on currency-based selling and the potential for gold sales or revaluation by the International Monetary Fund, analysts and traders said.

COMEX April gold fell $2.60 to $415.90 after dealing from $419.50 to $415.50, which was the contract's cheapest since Oct. 13.

A weakening euro versus the dollar throughout the day and talk of central bank selling in gold, as well as concerns over possible sales from IMF reserves, were the main drivers behind the slippage. A higher dollar makes dollar-denominated gold less affordable for non-U.S. investors.

The United States has ruled out a proposal to use some of the IMF's gold reserves for Third World debt relief, but Canada says the plan was not yet dead.

Britain's finance minister, Gordon Brown, the host of a Group of Seven economic powers summit this weekend, says he has support of European G7 partners for his proposals to cut the debt of emerging, especially African, nations.

"Today was mainly currency-related, but I think there was still some residual unease over statements by Brown concerning the IMF gold reserves," Refco metals analyst Tom Boustead said. "I think that, en masse, the market probably feels that, if anything happens, there will probably be a revaluation rather than an actual sale," Boustead said.

"If there's a revaluation, I think the market takes it well; if there's a sale, that's negative."

After gold's New York close, IMF Managing Director Rodrigo Rato said there were clear ways to sell gold effectively, if IMF shareholders decide to proceed.

"Certainly, we have done it before and we think there are clear ways to do it that will be the most effective from a financial point of view," Rato told reporters as he left to attend a G7 dinner.

Rato said he was not providing his opinion on whether the IMF should sell gold to finance a debt relief plan.

"(Selling reserves) would take a long time to happen, but just the idea they would sell it has put the tone of the market from being overly bullish and dollar bearish to where the dollar is strengthening a little bit," said Andy Brosoff at Mitsubishi International Corp.

------(see url for access to full news, 24-hr international newswire)---

http://alzahr.blogspot.com/2005/02/us-inflation-are-savers-screwing-pooch.htmlCapital Chronicle (Feb 4, 2005) -- Screwing the pooch. Not a pretty image. But, if you hold US sovereign debt or save in a US dollar denominated account, get used to Fido.

Some US investors have long complained that the core CPI used by the Fed does not include energy or food costs. It's common on Earth to accept these two items as essential expenses. Why those from Planet Fed fix on a "core" rate excluding food and energy is one of the mysteries of the cosmos.

The result is that the Fed gets ownership of a 2.2% core CPI rate as of December 2004 and disowns, or so it appears, the broader CPI rate of 3.3%.

The trim, slim "core" CPI understates inflation. In fact, BOTH rates do...

All in all, significantly understating both its CPI measures might have been a brilliant and (if deliberate) devious way for the Fed to try claw back the budget deficit: just let inflation eat away at the debt. Unfortunately (but small wonder) ordinary citizens saw through and admired the scheme so much they emulated it.

And, lo, there were twin deficits.

^-------(from url)-----^

Buying tangible assets is indeed a tried-and-true method employed by citizens throughout the world to avoid incurring losses from currency depreciation. Not all of them go so deeply into debt to do it, however.

Of tangible assets, none other offers the ease of storage, the safety of indestructibility, the high liquidity and low buy-sell spread, and a convenient depth of trade in world-wide markets as is available through gold. Don't just fly from your currency randomly into hard assets -- choose gold, the Universal savings asset.

R.

� Financial Organization and Operations of the IMF
� Where Does the IMF Get Its Money?
� IMF Borrowing Arrangements: GAB and NAB
� IMF Quotas
� Special Drawing Rights
� How Does the IMF Lend?
� The IMF at a Glance
� Factsheets List
Espa--ol
Fran�ais

A Factsheet - September 2004
Gold in the IMF
Gold played a central role in the international monetary system until the collapse of the Bretton Woods system of fixed exchange rates in 1973. Since then, the role of gold has been gradually reduced. However, it is still an important asset in the reserve holdings of a number of countries, and the IMF remains one of the largest official holders of gold in the world.
The IMF's gold holdings
The IMF holds 103.4 million ounces (3,217 metric tons) of gold at designated depositories. The IMF's total gold holdings are valued on its balance sheet at SDR 5.9 billion (about $8.5 billion) on the basis of historical cost. As of August 31, 2004, the IMF's holdings amounted to $42.2 billion (at then current market prices).
The IMF acquired virtually all its gold holdings through four main types of transactions under the original Articles of Agreement. First, the original Articles prescribed that 25 percent of initial quota subscriptions and subsequent quota increases were to be paid in gold. This represented the largest source of the IMF's gold. Second, all payments of charges (i.e., interest on members' use of IMF credit) were normally made in gold. Third, a member wishing to purchase the currency of another member could acquire it by selling gold to the IMF. The major use of this provision was sales of gold to the IMF by South Africa in 1970�71. And finally, members could use gold to repay the IMF for credit previously extended.
The IMF's policy on gold today
The Second Amendment to the Articles of Agreement in April 1978 eliminated the use of gold as the common denominator of the post-World War II exchange rate system and as the basis of the value of the Special Drawing Right (SDR). It also abolished the official price of gold and abrogated the obligatory use of gold in transactions between the IMF and its members. It furthermore required that the IMF, when dealing in gold, avoid managing its price or establishing a fixed price.
The Articles of Agreement now limit the use of gold in the IMF's operations and transactions. The IMF may sell gold outright on the basis of prevailing market prices, and may accept gold in the discharge of a member's obligations at an agreed price, based on market prices at the time of acceptance. These transactions in gold require an 85 percent majority of total voting power. The IMF does not have the authority to engage in any other gold transactions�such as loans, leases, swaps, or use of gold as collateral�nor does it have the authority to buy gold.
The IMF's policy on gold is governed by the following principles:
� As an undervalued asset held by the IMF, gold provides fundamental strength to its balance sheet. Any mobilization of IMF gold should avoid weakening its overall financial position.
� The IMF should continue to hold a relatively large amount of gold among its assets, not only for prudential reasons, but also to meet unforeseen contingencies.
� The IMF has a systemic responsibility to avoid causing disruptions to the functioning of the gold market.
� Profits from any gold sales should be used whenever feasible to create an investment fund, of which only the income should be used.
How and when the IMF used gold
Outflows of gold from the IMF's holdings occurred under the original Articles of Agreement through sales of gold for currency, and via payments of remuneration and interest. Since the Second Amendment of the Articles of Agreement, outflows of gold can only occur through outright sales. Key gold transactions included:
� Sales for replenishment (1957�70). The IMF sold gold on several occasions during this period to replenish its holdings of currencies.
� South African gold (1970�71). The IMF sold gold to members in amounts roughly corresponding to those purchased in these years from South Africa.
� Investment in U.S. government securities (1956�72). In order to generate income to offset operational deficits, some IMF gold was sold to the United States and the proceeds invested in U.S. government securities. Subsequently, a significant buildup of IMF reserves prompted the IMF to reacquire this gold from the U.S. government.
� Auctions and "restitution" sales (1976�80). The IMF sold approximately one third (50 million ounces) of its then-existing gold holdings following an agreement by its members to reduce the role of gold in the international monetary system. Half of this amount was sold in restitution to members at the then-official price of SDR 35 per ounce; the other half was auctioned to the market to finance the Trust Fund, which supported concessional lending by the IMF to low-income countries.
� Off-market transactions in gold (1999�2000). In December 1999, the Executive Board authorized off-market transactions in gold of up to 14 million ounces to help finance IMF participation in the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative. Between December 1999 and April 2000, separate but closely linked transactions involving a total of 12.9 million ounces of gold were carried out between the IMF and two members (Brazil and Mexico) that had financial obligations falling due to the IMF. In the first step, the IMF sold gold to the member at the prevailing market price and the profits were placed in a special account invested for the benefit of the HIPC Initiative. In the second step, the IMF immediately accepted back, at the same market price, the same amount of gold from the member in settlement of that member's financial obligations. The net effect of these transactions was to leave the balance of the IMF's holdings of physical gold unchanged.


IMF EXTERNAL RELATIONS DEPARTMENT
Public Affairs Media Relations
Phone: 202-623-7300 Phone: 202-623-7100
Fax: 202-623-6278 Fax: 202-623-6772


It seems as though the IMF taxes each member by demanding payment in gold which it values at 35.00 per oz then lends the gold to a deserving needy member who promptly returns the fiscal gold at market price to the IMF which in turn credits the deserving needy member with the difference between acquired price and market price as debt relief.
My question is does the IMF now carry the gold in its accounts at market price? For the next time it sees fit to repeat the process. Does it need to wait until the price of gold rises again to give benefit to a needy member ?Does this not simply mean that the IMF has taxing ability on its membership and can redistribute wealth to any other member ?
Has it achieved an international tax ability without consent of the Soverign citizens.?
This is Taxation without legal consent.No?
It seems to me they sell gold to the US to acquire Treasury bonds (debt), they are monetizing gold are they not? Then they use the interest from those bonds as income.
The income is then used to buy gold elsewhere or anywhere. Every time the IMF buys gold, debt is added to the selling countries balance sheet.
It is all a scheme to add debt to the Rich countries balance sheet and give it to a needy member. It's nothing more than redistribution of wealth from the haves to the have- nots.
The transfer of debt from the balance sheet of a poor country to the balance sheet of a rich country is what it is all about. Every time a poor country sells gold to the IMF to discharge debt, the gold may be sold elsewhere transferring the debt to the balance sheet of the acquiring country. In other words when the U.S. buys gold from the IMF debt is added to the U.S. balance sheet. The U.S. is monetizing gold for the benefit of giving debt relief to poor countries.
This leads me to believe that there should be two Gold prices, one for countries whose gold is encumbered by debt and the other in private hands with no debt attached to it.
IMHO

I read the USAGold site twice daily, once at lunch and all evening. Why? Because I dearly enjoy seeking the truth which now is in short supply in the US media.

I suspect Greenspans ACE in the hole is whenever the U.S. buys Gold from the IMF and in turn issues Treasury Bonds as payment,in the end possession is 9/10 of the law.When the crunch comes and the Banksters call in thier debt the U.S. can default only if it has the military might to keep possession of the physical.

I read the USAGOLD Forum because, this is the place to be for a well rounded dialog that endeavers not only to bring the facts to its readers but also the intricacies and nuances of and ever changing gold market. This Forum welcomes both beginner and expert to express their veiws in a cordial atmosphere, but not without the scrutiny of the forum to support their expressions. Having a set of rules, USAGOLD is flexible to the issues of the day and to posters that feel strongly about a point. I find the posters here at USAGOLD most tolerant of others and their willingness to answer their questions exemplify the character of those who post here. USAGOLD, now gone INTERNATIONAL, I look forward to electronicaly converse with new friends sharing questions about gold and someday meeting them. I read USAGOLD, every other day, except during hunting season ;0)
Slingshot--------------<>

I visit the Forum to:-
(a) Win Gold Coins.
(b) Practice my Typing.
(c) Try and stay ahead of the Pack.
(d) Check if Another has returned.
(e) Get a Global view of fellow GoldHeart's thought processes.
...and I do this usually once (or twice) a Day.

I read the USAGOLD Forum every day, and monitor it frequently throughout the day, because I am an investor with a lot riding on gold and gold stocks - but also other things. This forum efficiently collects, distributes and distils relevant financial/economic/political events globally; providing a continuous, evolving basis upon whch to make investment decisions.

Investment decisions are always about the future and one's future well-being. One's ability to reliably judge the future depends greatly on one's experience and understanding of the past and what is happening aroundabout. Knowledge and understanding are never complete...there is always uncertainty akin to "the fog of war" which clouds decisions. Material on this forum, critically appraised, helps to penetrate this investment fog and to make better decisions.

I don't believe it, Sir Topaz and I reached the same conclusion...please alter mine to 426.5

:-(

TOKYO -(Dow Jones)- Citigroup Inc.'s (C) huge trades in the eurozone government bond market last August - which were later described as "knuckle- headed" by Chuck Prince, its chief executive - came shortly after an internal memorandum spelt out how the US investment bank could "very profitably" destabilize the market, the Financial Times reported in its Tuesday international edition.

The memo outlines a strategy to shake up the eurozone market, where trading margins have contracted because of transparency and stiff competition, the report said.

The document dated July 20, two weeks before the trades were conducted says Citigroup wanted to "turn the European Government bond market into one that more closely resembles" the less transparent US Treasury bond market, which is dominated by a much smaller number of investment banks. "Over time, this may help to kill off some of the smaller dealers" the memo adds.

A Citigroup spokesman said last night: "As this is the subject


Druid: Here-in lies but just a small microcosm of what is transpiring in all markets across the spectrum. This could be why ANOTHER suggested that you should throw away the charts and graphs because maybe, just maybe, he knew that market intervention among the paper crowd could create any type of "picture" they needed to reflect and thus herd the traders in the direction they needed to. Just a thought.

http://money.cnn.com/services/tickerheadlines/for5/200501311901DOWJONESDJONLINE000917_FORTUNE5.htm
Druid: Doh! Long day bugs and bugettes.

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B8F3BE57E%2DF972%2D4267%2D9EB6%2D47859F83EDD8%7D&siteid=mktw
Snippit:

"Like a deer caught in headlights, gold bulls have been frozen by a mirage of bearish factors like IMF gold sales and an unjustifiable belief that the U.S. dollar is entering a long-term bullish uptrend," said Peter Grandich, editor of the Grandich Letter.

"The job report was another disaster for the future of the U.S. dollar," said Ned Schmidt, editor of the Value View Gold Report. "In Chairman Greenspan's dreams and speeches, he sees the current account deficit correcting, [but] how can it correct if the U.S. is losing manufacturing jobs and having to import more goods," he said. "Delusions over the current account deficit and some magic fix to the U.S. deficit are supporting dollar," he said, so it's really another great buying opportunity for gold."


Black Blade: The fundamentals for the precious metals remain strong and the current price pull back is simply a temporary pull back as weak hands are shaken loose and traders scalp profits without regard to the longterm. Should continue to be interesting.

Sir Stevens: I have enjoyed your two recent and in-depth reports: This latest on the 4 D's and your previous predictions for the year 2005, entered a few days ago. I hope that you continue imparting with us your views on the economy and it's effect on things around us. Cheers!

Some feedback and questions:

If, as you say, the dollar (your 1st D) is destined to fall for years in an orderly manner, it seems reasonable to me, that interest rates, likewise, would continue to climb for years; if, as you say again, we hope to finance the continuing deficits (your 2nd D) through the lesser of three evils--borrowing.

Can we assume from the gradualism and lack of alarm in your paper's tone, that borrowers (present and future) are going to benignly accept this gradual weakening of the dollar and the consequential loss of *value* that entails? Without making a run for the exits, creating a stampede, and an instant bounce up in interest rates? Perhaps they all will. Probably they all
will, as all borrowers at present seem mollified and accepting of reduced value in dollar terms for the luxury of future business and U.S. military protection.(?)

However, regardless of the gradualism (let's just concede that for now) won't interest rates eventually rise to a point were they threaten your 3rd D, debt? And at that point, perhaps some of your wealth assumptions, if we are indeed thinking about real estate? For high rates should surely slow down the ability of buyers to finance mortgages that will be running in many cases in the hundreds of thousands of dollars (maybe more, if the people were "really" optimistic.)

Perhaps as you point out, some of those foreign holders of dollars really will want to cash out of dollars and will do so for a piece of the Rock, becoming the next greater fools buying extremely pricey real estate! I guess we've seen that before too, huh? Japanese in the 1980's. Interesting thought though, yours--that a bundle of boomers are going to be -two- home owners, vacation and all...Hmm. maybe so.

That scary area of unfunded government liabilities, you touch on the funding of those a little lightly, IMO. $60,000,000,000,000 or seventy trillion dollars looks like a lot of zeros even in today's depreciated dollar. Do you care to hazard any guesses as to the percentages of numbers like that, that will be funded by your three usual suspects: borrowing, taxes, inflation??
I will. Assuming the future remains unchanged regarding those numbers...and I don't think for a minute that they can, but here are my guesses on funding percentages in the order given above, 3%, 2%, 95%. Good Golly, Miss Molly! I think I'm going to continue buying Gold and or Silver, or as you refer to them: Commodities.

Nice speaking with you! I look forward to more of your analysis.

Best regards, G-dome

Why doesen't the U.S. like the idea of IMF gold sales?
Its because when the U.S. buys IMF gold it pays with Treasury Bonds which means more U.S.debt.
They could print Dollars which is inflationary.
They are in a box!
The IMF could revalue thier gold holdings,but I suspect they already have done that .It all depends what the current valuation of thier holdings are .If thier holdings are ALREADY at MARKET PRICE.THIS MAY REQUIRE A FURTHER INCREASE IN THE MARKET PRICE OF GOLD IN ORDER FOR THEM TO FORGIVE FURTHER DEBT.THIS COULD BE THE BEGINNING.......The Catalist...
The Dynamite CAP...

Think I'll do like so many others and hold off til the day before...Not because it narrows the odds but where I think it'll be would probably get you mad and you'd have the Hobbits after my my a$$...
Noone likes a pessimist when it comes to their Yellow treasure...YGM

Please refer to the discussion on this subject in the archives 17 Jan 05 (TownCrier, Sundeck et al.)

IMF gold is "valued" at about $82 per ounce on average, but most is valued at about $53 and a little around $300

Cheers

THANKS ,i WASN'T AROUND FOR THAT DISCUSSION .i DO WONDER IF THEY COMBINE ALL THE BONDS THEY HOLD WITH ALL THE CURRENCY AND THEN DIVIDE IT BY GOLD OZ..THE QUESTION BECOMES HOW MUCH BACKING DOES ALL THAT CURRENCY HAVE 10 % 15 % 1 % in Gold ?
With the Dollar falling it takes a higher per cent of Gold OR higher interest rates to stabalize it no?
If foreign holders of Dollars intervene selling or PRINTING yen ,yuan,or U-owes then they are playing musical chairs on the Titanic.

I have a word of Caution for Condoleeza Rice,a few years ago I was visiting London ,Paris & Rome and in each city the locals cautiond me about Pick-Pockets. Condy...Don't let them Pick your Pocket .!

Being a mere squire, I try to sneak my way into the great hall many times a day to hear the great tales from the most learned knights/ladies at this table. Truly now I understand that knowledge, wisdom and patience are the hallmarks of a knight or lady. Alas, more studying for me before I can claim a spot at the table! Until then, I will be in the shadows, listening, learning, and maybe asking a question or two.

http://www.mosnews.com/money/2005/02/04/currencybasket.shtmlSNIP :
"Russia's central bank said on Friday it had begun targeting the ruble's nominal exchange rate against the euro as well as the dollar, the Reuters news agency reports. The shift is meant to bring currency policy more in line with trade flows.

The Bank of Russia said in a statement it had begun targeting a dual currency basket � made up of 90 U.S. cents and 10 euro cents � as of Feb. 1 and would gradually raise the weighting of euros.

"Increases of the weighting of the euro in the twin currency basket, to a level appropriate for the task of exchange rate policy, will take place step-by-step as market players adapt," the statement said."
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Very slowly the shift to euros continues...

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/images/chapman020405a.jpgRodrigo Rato (IMF managing director)...after copious diner, a cold gold shower :
- There are clear ways to "sell" gold "effectively" if...IMF shareholders (US > 17,3 % of the votes) decide to proceed (march-?)
- "Certainly" we (the IMF) have done it before...
- ...Will do it in an "efficient" way...
-----
Remember that IMF/FED supported (?) WAG !
Remember that A.Greenspan is and must remain "GOD" (CNBC)!
Remember the UK's function (through its inspirational rulers) as a euro (EU-EMU) dam !

How about time for some US-treasury goldsales !?

The chart-trend (25 yrs USTB-10 yrs) must remain intact ! (see link)

Look at friday's intra-day charts (Au/$/IR) before and after God Alan's yada about the state of the deficit(s).
The media, politicos, Fed, marketmovers, were nicely playing in concert, again. Same tune, same chefs d'orchestre. Perfide Abion has been invaded and occupied !

http://edition.cnn.com/2005/ALLPOLITICS/02/03/rice/index.html"In a move likely to rattle Iran's rulers and frustrate allies in Europe, U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has signaled that the Bush administration is adopting a harder line towards Iran -- but she has stopped short of explicitly calling for regime change."

http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/05034/452010.stm"General Electric Co., which has been accused of collecting "blood money" by doing business in Iran, will stop accepting any new orders for business in the country, company officials said Wednesday.

The move by the world's largest company by market value comes just days after another conglomerate, Halliburton Co., announced the company will wind down its operations in Iran.

"We're seeing a turnaround by a number of U.S. companies operating in Iran," said Dan Katz, chief counsel to U.S. Sen. Frank Lautenberg, D-N.J. "

Looks like they slid past GAB's low call of $414 and am now reading the slide may continue to $403. Are you catching the falling knife as I am doing? Never been too good at timing and so grabbing the blade in the freefall state instead of waiting till it sticks in the floor board and grab the handle, will render some more cuts on my hand.
Not to worry about a few dollars here and a few dollars there.
The coin shops are doing good business and shortages of the 1 oz, gold eagle appear at times and Maples are selling but not as fast. Silver has been doing strange things in my neck of the woods.
You can buy a roll of 20 silver eagles for $8.75 each. Buy them one at a time and they cost $11.00. Yepper! The Flea Markets/Swap Meets two weeks ago had first strike ;0) going for $11.00 and last weekend they rose to $12.00 a coin. They are selling! Silver dollars, Morgan's and Peace, graded Good to Very Good, common dates are between $10 and $ 12 a coin. The interset in these coins is growing.
These $12.00 Silver Eagles I assume are people buying one or two for their coin collection.
Back to Gold. I have an Asian friend and we speak of gold alot and he has told me that his friends are buying jewelry in the 22/24k. Where do you find that? I asked. In the small shops. The major stores in our Malls are 10k and 14k and look out if you find 18k.
Slingshot--------<>

The places that have been chosen to be democratized, are, with the exception of Zimbabwe, oilreserve-rich places.
Even Mark Tatcher had some "private" democratization plans for an African oilcountry (E.G.). And Venuzuela was on the brink of being "de"-democratized.

How does it come that all those specific un-democratic places haven't evolved into democracies during the past 4 decades that oil-wealth and a dollar-standard was at their disposal ??? The famous "WHY" question.

Idem dito for South Africa with its magnificent golden arch.

WHAT were the real reasons that these different nations, with oil/resources/gold, never succeeded in getting their house in order as to be fully integrated into the global economic order on an equal foothing ?

What kind of democracy (freedom) are we going to "impose" these nations, this time ?

Has the "dollar-gold-oil"-concept of the past 3 decades been responsible for the desastrous results we are facing now !? Will this new crusade,... "change"... those intrinsically wealthy regions/states.
Note that Sudan (oil + China) is not (yet) on the list of democratization candidates !?

Is Russia (or China) a democratic/freedom state on Western standards ? Will any outside imposed regime change in Russia stop the terror overthere ? Or in Myamar (+ oil)...Nigeria(+ oil)...Congo(+oil)...Angola(+oil)...Timor(+oil)...etc ?

Are it the specific "states" that are threathening our Western (or universal) values or is it ...more specifically their oil/gas-reserves ?

How much more CHEAP gold must be "sacrificed" as to have these roque states (outposts) democratized and freed from themselves !? And who's gold (under + aboveground) should be used for the holy cause ...US, Canada, Australia, Africa...? Private stashes...?

Will the ongoing democratization have triomphed...WHEN OILPRICES GO BACK DOWN TO NOTHING and flows freely and abundantly through all the pipelines !? Alelujah.

In the mid seventies, after Nixon changed the gold-dollar-oil story, there was a lot of turmoil (war) in the ME resource rich places, also. Was this also an effort to democratise that region ?

Can democracy (freedom) spring/grow out of coercive crusades, destruction, intrige, exploitation...etc ?
Does the Western dollar model works as a one size fits all ?

Now that it is crystal clear that the paper-gold-contract maket is shrinking,...all dollar users will have to move to the forex for hedging and the physical goldtrade can come into the forefront. But,...apparently...we are running out of the metal for trading it cheaply. This is a problem for the democratizers' currency. And the Big democratization needs the oil wealth as to give the democracy substance.

Simply wanted to emhasize again how the dollar-gold-oil complex is a pure political given.
If we are running out of cheap goldmetal...we can stop trading or...let the price float. There's less and less in between. How much chances for succes has the freedom crusade under these evolving circumstances ? Thoughts.

With GE and Halliburton bailing, one might suspect that the spit is about to hit the fan. These companies delivered all the justifications in the world for making hay while the Sun shone, so they are very likely "canaries in the coal mine", and are heeding the warning (direct or not) to "get while the gettin' is good".

If Iranian oil production suffers the setbacks we've seen in Iraq, watch for oil and gas to spike considerably - along with PM - due to a "security premium."

Interesting complications are the reactions of Chiina and Russia when they see their oil investments go up in smoke.

The US media vilified the French for not wanting the NeoCons to annex their Iraqi investments, so what boogeymen will be manufactured if the rest of the world cries foul in Iran? Will the objections be as ineffective as they were for Iraq, or will someone put up larger roadblocks? For those who have read past the mealy-mouthed public school textbooks, Pearl Harbor was a direct response to the cutoff of oil flow to Imperial Japan.

Preemptive war is so much easier to predict than pure defensive action, as one can just "follow the money!"

It has already been 5 good/very good years for those who discovered gold !!! Good, because the metal is unbelievable cheap...very good, because all have plenty of time to discover it, understanding it and accumulate it gradually to their understanding.
But the best/very best days are still to come Sir ! Not days, but years !
The same "working bees" that have been hiding gold so long for the general public,...are the ones that know what is going to happen with the yellow honey !!! Bees are bees, aren't they ...and they are real Slingshot !

Since we have a weekend open forum policy, I must say I was confuzzed by democratic party operatives moving ahead with Dean as the head of the DNC. Because I have read that a large number of democratic party big donors said that they would not contribute during a dean tenure and usually THAT would be enough to stop a candidates chances.
The Jewish group said that they wanted a different direction for the DNC and so my question was, WHAT could trump the threat of a donor revolt?
Only thing I see, is that at the Dem Boston convention, there were 400 gay delegates. And gay folk are strewn throughout the the Dem staff.
Dean is getting the support and backing to win, despite donor revolt, because the gays are making thier push now.

In my state, Connecticut, the legislature was not too far away from granting some -civil union- status to gays.
However, the gay movement, recently seeing a UCONN poll that said that a majority of Conn citizens supported a gay marriage status, just told the legislature that they no longer wanted a civil union deal.
Having watched the UCONN and Quanipiac college (conn.) polls during the election, I had to conclude that college poll taking is fraudulent. Students will lie. And political minded students, working the phones for the poll, just are too untrustable to believe.
So, I believe that the UCONN college poll about gay support was the result of lying by student poll takers, and the gay movement in Conn was fooled by the poll enough to think that support for gay marriage is there in this state.
Consequently, they discarded the chance for civil unions in thier new effort to get full marriage status in Ct.
I think we are in for a huge push through the media and the democratic party for gay marriage. The entire Dean team will certainly make sure we have that issue in front of us.
I mention this because Money usually trumps any other issue in the political world. During the 1972 Democratic party change, Donors were shown the door, and this is the only other time that I know of where it has happened.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/4237049.stmsnip"

"New US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has called on Europe to show "unity of purpose" with Washington in opposing Iran's nuclear programme.

"Diplomacy can work" in resolving tensions over Tehran's nuclear ambitions, she said after talks with German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder.

But Iran had to show it was prepared to live up to its obligations, she said.

The EU has tried to negotiate with Tehran over its nuclear activities, but the US has urged a tougher stance.

The US failed last year to get Iran reported to the UN Security Council to face possible sanctions.

France, Germany and the UK are now negotiating with Iran to turn a freeze on its nuclear enrichment activities into abandonment."

-Goldilox

Not surprisingly, the "with us or again' us" mantra will be repeated ad nauseum.

In a move of diplomatic economy, even the pre-Iraqi rhetoric has been recycled. With the gutting of US intelligence that axed the pros and decorated the "tricksters", we can expect similarly Xeroxed "intelligence" reports to surface from the bowels of Virginia and MI-6, and Mossad.

Anglo-American-Israeli oil interests are preempting the world oil grab, so as not to be cut off like the Axis were in 1940. Democratization began in the opium fields to produce "intelligence financing", and continues in the oil patch for fueling military expansion. Once the patch is "secure" look for other natural-resource-rich hot spots to require "security actions". If the Asian block pulls an "Islamic Dinar" rabbit out of their hat, watch for "banking reform" in the slave labor producers - follow the money.

A cookie cutter pattern is being played out in South America . . . secure Columbia first, for "drug money financing", then Venezuela, for fuel, and then spank the Brazilians and Argentines who embarrass the "banksters" by resisting the trading of their natural resources for IMF-WB loans - again, follow the money.

With the Democratic party in utter shambles as evidenced by the consideration of HOWARD DEAN as chairman of the party, with no alternatives or plans to stop the BUSH adminstration with regards to the reform of existing programs regarding some domestic issues including SOCIAL SECURITY reform, the privatization of indidvidual SOCIAL SECURITY accounts seems highly likely to see the light of day. WHAT IF ONE OF THE OPTIONS IN THE PRIVATIZATION PLAN ALLOWS FOR THE PURCHASE OF GOLD COINS?????????? If this could be possible, then the overwhelming majority of hard asset proponents would be in favor of private accounts and it would be ridiculous for the DEMOCRATS to oppose the adminstrations reform plans. THOUGHTS ANYONE??????? ALWAYS, THANKS IN ADVANCE.

I think that the Democratic Party may be slowly beginning to recognize that their association with "big business" has hurt their ability to gather popular support. The Dean machine was responsible for a large increase in individual "internet" contributions. I'm looking for them to make a move toward populism that will mean putting some of their "special interests" on the back burner. I hear little from them that leads me to believe that they understand the way that the world is being reshaped by globalization (there should be terror in their eyes over what is happening to the dollar). They appear to be behind the curve but at least heading toward becoming a more viable party. FWIW

Things are still awful here in Michigan 7.3% (official) unemployment, higher around Detroit. I may be asking Randy to change my handle soon, I haven't been a toolie for nearly a year. Fencie, Loafer � to describe the way I spent the time. OR if things pan out, maybe pizza dude or surveymiester.

@ $ Bill,

With the rumor mill rife with accusations that the third-parties were financed by the NeoCons to split votes and a growing impression that Kerry was "Bush-lite" to allow the NeoCons to essentially run unopposed, the Demos are searching for an electorate base. Dean, although left of the money, found a strong following in the Demo-centrist camps, as Nader and Kucinich were unable to do.

Labor has been emasculated in the last 40 years, but may find some new inspiration in the continuing disenfranchisement of American workers.

The media has worked hard to present the Kennedies, Clintons, and Kerries as "liberals", and kept any real liberals from the airwaves. These guys are about as "liberal" as Genghis Kahn.

The internet paints a different picture, and Dean built his following with a very strong internet push. Demos want to utilize this tactic to reach back into the "Common Causes" and "Art Bells" of the world who have very large, but unorganized audiences.

In many ways, this resembles the now-lost-to-history power struggles between the expansionist and isolationist camps of pre-WWII.

It will be interesting to see if they can rebuild a base or if this is just "entertainment".

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$HUI,uu[h,a]daoayiay[pb200!f][vc60][iut!Uh89,21!Lp88,21,3]⪯f=GCROSSOVER is coming SOON !
<;-)

Sir Hoosier: I have doubts that gold coins would be in the mix of SSI private account options.
The President in his State message alluded to the example of the Fed. Thrift savings plan, that he said would include a conservative stock fund, a conservative bond fund, a money market fund, and perhaps some type of international fund. Basically, four options.

In the conservative stock fund, I doubt, that even large, well run gold mining companies would be included, as the government is apparently loath to any encouragement of gold. Would political pressure be brought on the funds to prop-up sagging U.S. industry? That's my question. If a large auto production company or bank were to experience a downturn, would pressure be brought on the managers of the funds to either buy stock or newly floated bonds in these failing industries, in effort to stabilize them?

My opinion is that it is no better odds than 50-50, that these accounts will be established. The loyal opposition will oppose, then talk... I feel better chances will be had by tinkering around the edges of the program. A more easily arrived at compromise might include, lifting the limit on earnings (now about $90,000) subject to SSI taxes, making it correspond to Medicare taxes now levied against total adjusted gross income. There may also be tinkering with the formulas used in figuring cost of living adjustments and other formulas that may be adjusted to cut future benefits, or eligibility amounts. Any agreement reached in these areas could be touted loudly by politicians in both parties, as a great victory for the future of America! Then they could all get back to the business of ignoring the problem for some more years.

The President personally faces no further re-election, he can afford to be strident on the subject; his party members in congress, however, will face re-election, soon! They will be much more cautious around this lightning rod issue; grab to tight and you may get burned. Though most of the congressional districts around the country are well Gerrymandered to favor one party or the other, getting too far out front on an issue as politically sensitive as SSI, could prove disastrous in the next congressional elections. (All we need do is think back to the failed national health care program put forth by the democratic party in the early 1990's, that was instrumental in their being swept from long, established power.)

Nice meetin' you. As to your questions..."If as you say, the dollar (your 1st D) is destined to fall for years in an orderly manner, it seems reasonable to me, that interest rates, likewise, would continue to climb for years;" ... You would think so, and they might, but the dollar has been going down for the last three years and long term rates have stayed unusually low. Obviously, something else is going on. It could be a shift of funds from stocks to bonds, by future retirees.

"Can we assume from the gradualism and lack of alarm in your paper's tone, that borrowers (present and future) are going to benignly accept this gradual weakening of the dollar and the consequential loss of *value* that entails?"....They have. This, even as they diversify into other non-dollar investments.

"won't interest rates eventually rise to a point were they threaten your 3rd D, debt? And at that point, perhaps some of your wealth assumptions"...Certainly if interest rise high enough, there will be debt casualties at the margins. This is always the case. But, this is not in the cards yet, we are still a long way from a positive interest rate that bites."

"Perhaps as you point out, some of those foreign holders of dollars really will want to cash out of dollars and will do so for a piece of the Rock, becoming the next greater fools buying extremely pricey real estate!"...They already are. Our cheap dollar is leading to foreign retirees choosing America as their number one vacation destination. Everything here is on sale to them. I no many of them personally and some have already moved here permanently. I think the rise in real estate is far from over.

As to my guess as to the percentage break down of the funding of future unfunded liabilities, I wont put a number on it but I think it will be borrowing first, taxes second, and inflation third. But whatever we think of future coming events, the markets are the ultimate judge, and they will telegraph their concerns loud and clear. Gold has been telling us the world is changing for the last 3 years, and gold usually knows first and best about a changing world. Nice talking to you.

http://www.usagold.com/gold/special/grp.html

Reform is the gov't code word for failure. When private corps fail, they go out of business, when the gov't fails it reforms, then it reforms again and again and again and again.
I do not think physical gold will qualify under the proposed SS reforms. Keep in mind SS funds must be traceable and taxable. Gold is too slippery in this regard and therein lays its beauty.
Gold is a great asset to hold for retirement, but the gov't does not need to be involved in your retirement plans.
Why on earth would a sane person willingly enter into a contract with the gov't when the gov't can unilaterally renegotiate at will? That's what I call slavery.

Best Wishes

GOLDENDOME & LIBERTY HEAD:
Since we already have engaged in a forced contract with the government for our retirement as evidenced by our forced participation in SOCIAL SECURITY since the 1930's, why wouldn't purchasing gold coins in a private program be a possible option since we already are permitted to hold gold coins in our PRIVATE IRA accounts??????? Wouldn't we just need to lobby CONGRESS to make it a viable option of the privatization plan that, correct me if I am wrong, is not set in stone as of yet??? THANKS IN ADVANCE.

http://www.futuresource.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=APIH05&o=SP&a=W&z=610x300&d=medium&b=bar&st=Here in OZ we've had privatized SS (or as we call it "Superannuation") for 20+ years. The last 10 has seen a surge in inputs due to legislative changes favourable to the "Industry".
Currently, an AU$ amount equal to the total weekly wage bill of the Country is invested into "Super" (read StkMkts) roughly EVERY TWO MONTHS!
The linked Chart gives an indication of the relative strength of OZ SnP200 vis your SnP500. Now in a classic Chicken/Egg, our economy is humming along nicely and outperforming pretty well everything.
Re Gold Coins, there is an avenue whereby we OZ's can "invest" our Super in PGiP but it requires establishment of a "self-managed" SS account.
The e-cost is $1K and ongoing approx the same pa,(auditing and whatnot)...but it CAN be done!

Hope this helps.

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/2816Latest GATA dispatch.



To subscribe to GATA's dispatches, send an e-mail to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/2815Otherwise, the gold price might put
some restraint on the government.

A GATA dispatch.


To subscribe to GATA's dispatches, send an e-mail to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

Towncrier
With gold selling over the decades at much higher multiples of the 40 dollarish value than the US and the IMF have placed on it, the question arises: why have they chosen to drastically undervalue gold? Should the US, for example, mark US gold to market, the huge overweight in gold to foreign currency may show that we favor gold as an asset above all else.

My question is: What other motive could there be for the undervaluation?

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B3D63D6D8-4336-4430-B55A-F494CB393D59%7D&siteid=google&dist=googleThere are talk of closing Fannie and Freddie, will this be the catalyst tha coukld propel gold aboe 500?

"Receivership is a valuable thing," Patrick Lawler, chief economist of the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, told a forum about Fannie Mae (FNM: news, chart, profile) and Freddie Mac (FRE: news, chart, profile) on Thursday. ..."

Any thoughts ?

Another thought about the predictive power of goldbug sentiment, has anyone posted a contest guess that's lower than spot is now?
happy weekend + GO Patriots!

While I have my doubts, I am hoping that some bright spark might realise and suggest to Congress that there are already a bunch of different retirement accounts in existance which individuals can use to prepare for their future - that's why they are called IRAs, after all ! The only change needed would be to adjust numbers in the existing framework, by juggling payroll tax and income tax percentages. This would cost far less than any new scheme (and have the advantage that it could go into a gold IRA !) but unfortunately lacks the political excitement of a REFORM.
To be a little more positive, I think that it is great that the issue is being seriously debated now - people might actually get off their duffs and look into what their future holds for them - but it's a shame they started on the relatively minor issue of SS and not the real elephant - healthcare.
C!

O, that wonderful braying comes once again to our ears, precious! It's the Contesst Horn! (capering) A chance to win more of It!

We reads the USAGOLD forum when we can... every few days or sooner... that is, until Master let the Inter-net dial-up expire. Ssss!... we missed a Contesst, we did, and a great many other things beside, ach!... and then we found out JUSST HOW MUCH this excellent Table Round and its Posters, ALL of you, had come to mean to us, yess even to poor Smeagol... it is as if all the current economic and political Gold-related "ore" is constantly being processed and "high-graded" (is that the term they uses, eh, precious?) and laid out here as a banquet... a feast as good as Precious! We agrees with Sir Slingshot in hoping one day to actually meet some of you fine folks... perhaps after It goes "to da Moon!"? (grin)

My worth is quite small,
yet I walk with Giants tall,
for our wealth is Gold.

S.

-------
"Well, Smeagol, I can have Gandalf undo the DSL and put us back on the dial-up, if you want? No? I didn't think so, ha ha!" - F. Baggins


[p.s. On a serious note, never EVER let government become a partner in your metallic savings! Think on this, long and critically - GOVERNMENT DOES NOT PHYSICALLY EXIST. It is an agreement, a belief concept in a group of people's minds. A warm body (or group) is solely responsible for every so-called "government" act. The phrase "the government is doing (this or that)" as if it was a tangible entity is a perfect cover for the someBODY(ies) behind that vague, grandiose curtain who is actually pulling those levers (ALWAYS in your best interest? Why do most automatically think so?) Do those people know you? Very likely, NO!! Involving your metallic savings affairs with government is akin to broadcasting the exact location of those same metallic savings to all, unknown and sundry, and maybe worse!

BTW, thank you, MK and TC, for opening the forum on an limited experimental basis to political thought - it being unavoidably tied to Gold, and a minefield to be sure, but no pain, no gain.]

Hmmm...so, GE and Halliburton are "winding down" their business as they say, in the Iran-country, eh, precious? We guesses they are quietly stepping out before the bombing begins...

S.

The absence of any kind of resume' will be construed as positive - at least for the short term - for the fate of the $.

It may also be construed as positive for the $ that John, the Snow(man) was incapicitated, or better indisposed by the most common and understandable of reasons the common Winter - now maybe China - flu to participate in these ever more impo(r)tent meetings.

Condi's flitting all over the place certainly will make up for the in-flu-enca-ed cancelling of Snow's participation.

Well, huh, we've been snowed in kind'a heavily over the last few weeks and and years respectively; The danger of avalanches doesn't have to become systemic in the Alps and global by sending more Snow ...

Gee, the Seven seem lost in practical self-delusion ... A practice of surrendering to their chosen fate to prolong a deal, which was called and ended by 1971. A deal, where the IMF and WB reigned supreme in support of the $. A deal, which has caused more poverty in developing ad poor countries than any re-valuation of the IMF's Gold - which really isn't its property - may ever reconcile.

... 'Nough said, and after a week of begnign to good economic reports of the BLS of the US - I'm happy to retire to a sunny, freezing weekend with enough of the white snow to last (me) for a while....

cb2


PS: Congrats to the US guys winning the world championship downhill in Bormio - Bode Miller and Daron Ralhves!

As a starting point we must recognize that the U.S. (and IMF) low gold valuations are a legacy of the prevailing valuations when the ledgers were penciled three decades ago.

Why has so little change occurred since then?

The shortest possible answer regarding a motive to maintain the low valuation is a basic desire to maintain an illusion of the status quo (from over thirty years ago!) of the dollar as paramount currency. Resistance to write up the market value of gold assets is an attempt to turn a blind eye to the true story that gold is trying to show.

During the intervening years so many derivative hedges have been written to bridge the gap between the dollar's illusion and the actual reality that the derivatives themselves have become largely responsible for the maintenance of the illusion. Consequently they are themselves also vulnerable to collapse from the reverberating shock of any firm reality check (like a hockey player checked into the boards) because, as you know, to stand the test of time any bridge needs to have its abutments on BOTH sides firmly grounded in reality. But here we see the dollar side is only elaborately suspended in cloud.

The motivations on the cloudy dollar side is therefore simply to maintain the status quo and avoid any reality checks such as fiddling with the old gold valuations.

Conversely, the euro-system CAN allow gold to blurt out its truths (eventually) because as a fashionably late newcomer the euro had time to read the lay of the land and built its house on the golden bedrock side of everything. As a global participant, however, the euro-system does have an interest in ensuring the least possible disruptive collapse of the shoddy bridgework because it affects the economic health of so many of their fellow participants, especially us.

When the economic landform shifts and the bridges are torn apart, the euro will not rise relative to the upthrusted gold, but more importantly, neither will it be demolished by it. That alone will be heralded as a worthy accomplishment, and it will surely prosper afterwards as the most sizeable of the few currency systems still standing.

But why settle for merely survival when you can position yourself better to enjoy the thrill ride of the tectonic uplift? Dig your footings along the cheap golden valley today and likely someday you'll be able to look out to discover you are in command of a mountaintop view of the world. Choose gold -- undervalued today, "unavailable" tomorrow.

R.

< ALERT >

You don't have to have a major in Elliot Wave to see the 5 wave correction in GOLD since the Dec highs... Looks like GOLD is in the final 5th wave move down from that top, and its nearing its 200 DMA at around 410. This is also the the support on the long term weekly trendline connecting all of the prior bottoms since the big double bottom held in 2001!

FOLKS stay on the alert. We want this area to HOLD!

Remember, for gold to prosper the management of our nation must be irresponsible and weak. This pass weak, Bush said he would hold the line and spending, and Greenspan said the trade deficit would fall. Is this BS or real policy change.... Be on the lookout for responsible actions being taken in Washington DC as this would not be good for gold prices.

I had planned to do so but will wait until contest end draws near, so if I were to win w/ a corrective POG guess I can be long gone w/ my booty afore the Hobbits can catch my trail...I do have a # in mind and it would rile my Castle bretheren....I think the Powers that be, in control of Anti-Money have their foot on the accelerator and will not be thwarted for some time...Hope I'm wrong...YGM

Why would you want to lobby Congress for permission to have someone else hold YOUR gold? There is no shortage of folks who will gladly hold your gold as it is. I want for the people to control the gov't, not visa versa. Don't you?

I agree with you that we are in a forced situation with Soc. Sec. and should make the most of it. To me that means not feeding the beast sitting on my chest and sucking the life out of me. I would rather raise a fuss, squirm around, bite, kick, hit and spit at it any way I can.

Buy Gold.
Keep it in your possession.
Let the gov't to go eat ----.

Best Wishes

LIBERTY HEAD:
For your information, someone else holds my GOLD COINS in my GOLD-IRA, I think it is some church trust outfit!!!!! Someone else holds my intangible money (STOCKS, BONDS, CDS, ETC.) in my SEP-IRA-MERRILL LYNCH!!!!!! The government, USA, holds my payroll taxes for my SOCIAL SECURITY future benefit!!!!! Within the scope of SOCIAL SECURITY and IRA retirement accounts, someone else is ALWAYS holding the money or coins or whatever!!!! I do not see any other way around this stipulation within the scope of legally formed and held retirement accounts. I am totally confused by your line of thinking!!!!!!! Could you please clarify your position??? THANKS IN ADVANCE

You are correct that much of our earnings are taken from us and put in the "care" of others. As the gov't would have us believe, all out of a deep heart felt compassion and a superior knowledge of what is in our countries best interrest.

If someone else has your gold, you have a piece of paper.
How is that any different from any of the other pieces of paper you get in exchange for your wealth? Is an IOU for gold better than an IOU for dollars? Perhaps, perhaps not.
In either case you are still at the mercy of those who wish only to eat you.

Best Wishes

A question if I may, about that Elliot Wave system. If also applied to the US dollar index and the Euro, does the wavers see the dollar again turning down (and the Euro up) at the same time that gold bottoms? I follow may E-wavers opinions elsewhere and have never known them to be in agreement, even among themselves, but I'm always curious. Hopefully, the "open forum" weekend format allows some trading questions along with the political discussions.
Also, what does Elliot predict for the metal of the moon, silver?

So many had been bearish on the dollar that it did not surprise me when it bounced up but, once that contrarian move is digested, maybe the fundamentals of too many dollars and too much debt will once again take the buck down...? In the absence of some temporary investor-sentiment originated influence, markets tend to look for direction from the old invisible hand. Sometimes this takes time. Fundamentals eventually direct prices, no?

As for the government becoming suddenly fiscally responsible...I don't see how. Wars and "bread and circus" politics require deficit spending. I believe the government's (Bush) attention is focused on its policy of spreading democratic forms of government abroad, whether wanted or not, (or whether in conflict with centuries old cultural and religious beliefs or not) in keeping with Bush's outlook that this is somehow the one and only true form of legitimate government. I believe he sees this issue in pretty much black and white, "good" or "evil", for us or against us, terms which leave little chance for compromise or social evolution which often takes more time than forced military intervention. Bush believes this policy is more important than any monetary issues. I'm making no moral or ethical judgment, here, just my observations (opinion) of the situation which does not add up to spending less but more, much more! Goodby strong dollar, despite all the claptrap...local or G7 or elsewhere.
happy weekend!
rich

http://www.gold-eagle.com/research/schichtndx.htmlPolitics Economics and Science


Hans Schicht posts infrequently, but when he does, his words deserve careful attention (3 Feb 2005, most recent post.)

As far as I know, his current post is the first to discuss science.

A few voices from the past in support of his economic contentions; and another voice from the recent past in support of his scientific theory:

Justice Felix Frankfurter, "The real rulers in Washington are invisible and exercise power from behind the scenes."

Franklin Roosevelt, "The real truth of the matter is, as you and I know, that a financial element in the large centers has owned the government ever since the days of Andrew Jackson."
Baron M.A. Rothschild wrote, "Give me control over a nation's currency and I care not who makes its laws."
Woodrow Wilson, "There is a power somewhere so organized, so subtle, so watchful, so interlocked, so complete, so pervasive, �few speak of it"

John Rockefeller," I want to own nothing and control everything."
Currently the banking cartel and their client financial corporations produce nothing and control everything.

Alfred Einstein, "Compound interest is the most powerful force in the universe."

Perhaps over time, compound interest becomes the most powerful destructive force, as suggested by Schicht.

I find it remarkable that an apparent disproportional number of people, who in their early careers worked in scientific fields, find the study of macro economics in general, and monetary systems in particular, fascinating topics of study in their old age. Schicht may illustrate that tendency in reverse.

In the science portion of his post, Schicht appears to suggest that Einstein's theory of relatively has conceptual errors.

There are those of us who have long suspected that Einstein,( like Aristotelian scientists before Galileo, who had the math of planetary motion correct but the concept� the universe revolving around the earth� wrong), has confused the apparent speed of light with the actual effect of "time distance".

A few notes from a copyrighted 2001 paper titled, "Einstein's relativity and Aristotle's Earth centered spherical universe" :

"There can be no time without motion, and no motion without time."
.
"Light and electronic waves are, for lack of a better word, instantaneous. The apparent speed of light is the actual measure of time over distance in a universe in motion."

"No two physical bodies can exist in exactly the same time."

"A single beam of light exists simultaneously in more than one time."

Einstein's" time stands still for an object reaching the speed of light relative to time on a stationary object "- becomes- " An object moving at the apparent speed of light (if that were possible) would exist in more than one time.

The paper was written while working on a patent for a gyroscopic device, and contemplating unexpected experimental results.

Ten Bears
Thanks to Sir M.K. for an open posting weekend.

Sir Cometose, If i might ask you a question regarding your post of 1.12.04 #115155. You might have seen Mr Morgan's recent comments about china and Ag. As we all know, GFMS (and others) have alleged that all the Ag, supply at the margin is being supplied by china - or from chinese sources. Ignoring, for the moment, his stock promoting activities let me pose to you a question that struck me a day ago:

IF there really is a chinese NRRA (national resource reserve area), THEN is it rational for them to develop it if they have so much metal as GFMS and others would have us belive?

I could easily belive that government cronies just found an easy way to line their pockets with a few millions, and certainly the china aviation incident must give one pause. Yet something tells me that the essence of Morgan's revelations are quite plain. Though for all that, I doubt not that a new "mystery supplier" will be conjoured up, at least until the supply of hoarded Potosi dries up so completely that the spell detonates like Barad Dur. Then will the shining stars sing of valinor, doubtless Hugo Salinas will find that a "pretty song".

http://zfacts.com/p/486.htmlInteresting background given the 20 odd Yr antipodean experience I referred to earlier.
Don't be too surprised to hear how successful OZ has been in implementing the Model... not in those words of course;-)

- The IMF will "study" (?) the "use" (?) of its goldreserves to....yadayada.
- R. Rato has stated that he (?) will bring forward "proposals" (?) (in april), covering the Fund's gold....yadayada.

Note how carefully chosen the wordings are and the conditionally tone. STUDY THE USE OF GOLDRESERVES (3,217 tonnes) !!!

Monsieur Rato,...it has already been studied thoroughly...no need to waste your time on any new studies.
Nice to hear that you even suggest a "timing" for your "proposals" (april). But I thought that the final "decisions" on debtrelief were expected to be taken already in march ?
What do you suspect (smell) here, dearest forumers ? Please note, that in Euroland, except for perfide Albion, where the IMF debtrelief subject is covered,...GOLD IS NOT MENTIONED AT ALL !!!

Last month Greenspan warned the rest of the world about Americas problems out in the open. Friday we have this...
Go figure? When will the rest of the world stop supporting the US trade deficit which also by the way pays for their military campaigns in Iraq and next month Iran?

Point one� one article....
more sanguine view on the current account deficit than he's taken for some time," said Robert Sinche, head of currency strategy at Bank of America in New York.

"He's taking a longer-term view, laying out a set of conditions under which the current account deficit can improve this year and next," Sinche said.

Greenspan made his comments at a conference in London hosted by the British Treasury. His speech sent the dollar roaring back after it had earlier tumbled on the back of a softer-than-expected U.S. jobs report.

Late afternoon in New York, the euro (EUR) was down 0.8 percent at $1.2872 more than a cent and a half down from its session high hit immediately after the U.S. employment data.

Point two� another article, same day.
Some of the world's major central bankers warned the United States on Friday that the international community could be running out of patience with the massive U.S. budget and trade deficits that have pushed the dollar lower and increased the cost of their exports in America.

But U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said before the official opening of the Group of Seven finance ministers meeting that factors including the weaker dollar and tougher budget discipline in Congress may finally start to restrain the growth of the trade gap.

America's own campaign to push China to untie its currency from the dollar as quickly as possible appeared to make little headway.

European Central Bank president Jean-Claude Trichet said at a conference of business leaders and government officials that it was unacceptable for developed countries to run long-term current account deficits.

"The industrialized world as a whole is in deficit, there is a current account deficit, and there is no offsetting of the U.S. current account deficit by the other industrialized countries," Trichet said.

"That of course means that we are structurally asking the rest of the world to finance us. ... It doesn't seem to me that this is an acceptable and sustainable long-term feature of the present functioning of the global economy."

Liberty Head, Topaz, and all others!
Thanks for your insights and contributions!
We would better off if we just did it all on our own with regards to retirement accounts and did not have to participate in the PROGRAMS!

When "Greenspan-ism" is hyped with such an overwhelming gusto, in front of the general public...something very fundamental is going very, VERY wrong ! This doom-picture gets confirmated more strongly with an ever higher frequency of contradictionary statements via the controlled media. Panic soccer.
*Intuitively* and subconsciously, a growing part of the general public starts to smell the odor of paradoxal doom. The financial industry will not be able to hide the rot (rotting) for ever and one day.

When I see/hear Kudlow/Cramer, "glorify" A. Greenspan right before his London G7-speech followed by the instant reaction, in the right (desired) direction, of the financial fraternity...I conclude (again) >>> piramidal collusion on an enormous, unprecedented, scale. And these relative small events are only the visible ones.
The general public is intuitively realising that the whole financial piramidal system (stocks, bonds, currencies) IS fragile and vulnarable !

The Giants of this planet, must have known this already some time ago. Included those who profit from the existing situation. This will and shall be translated into significant gold-action...gold-change. I think that the goldprice cannot be allowed to explode for the time being, because the financial system realizes that the goldprice cannot be brought down again, after this particular lift off !!! This time, it is much different than in the '71-'80 rise >>>'80-'99 fall, of the goldprice.
Greenspan-ism is a last and final chapter of an aging system. The privatization efforts of social security as a whole is more an act of desperation rather than a change for the good. When the state-system is broke...they tell you to take care of yourself !!! We already found out how to do it and more importantly WHY we should do it with "goldmetal" in possession.

Is gold...a speculation, a gamble, an investment, an insurance, a reserve...or is it simply wealth !? Maybe a suggestion for a next contest : What is gold ?

CoBra(too), Belgian, MK, et al.,

G7 and the Dollar

Prior to the Bush State-of-the-Union address, the Euroworld were praying out loud for a more "stable" dollar. Their prayers were answered by some clever rhetoric in the SOTU speech (eg. social security commitments being addressed) and by Greenspan's convoluted FED-speak, which seems to have been universally interpreted by the financial pundits as "the deficits are likely to start mending themselves soon". Of course no such thing is likely to happen. But, given the credibility of the speakers, rhetoric alone was enough to keep the Dollar on its temporary upward trend (helped a bit by 1/4 of one percent IR hike). The two greatest men in the world having spoken, it was too risky having the 329,000,000th greatest man in the world (Snow) go to the G7 meeting (where the clamour was likely to be dollar-centred) and "defend" the dollar still further. Hence, perhaps he was "asked" to conveniently get the flue...

Iran and Oil

Meanwhile, Condi has wasted no time in stamping her feet in her new role as Secretary of State�diplomatic aplomb is not in Condi's suite (sweet??) of skills� So far, at least, she has indicated that there is no need, as yet, to break the Iran egg to make a bigger democratic omelette in the Middle East� My, my�such diplomacy�sort of like Jack Straw coming out and blurting that Britain has no plans, as yet, to attack the USA�I am truly fearful with this 500-pound gorilla blundering around amongst the pylons beneath the wobbly world. Thank heavens that we currently have a very experienced and competent batch of leaders across the major part of the sphere. Perhaps Condi will tone down her rhetoric, but the past does not augur well.

It is hard to know what plans the US administration may have for Iran (and other oil-rich) provinces...but my nagging suspicion is that the Bush "oiligarchy" knows better than just about anyone else the state of the Saudi Arabian oil-fields. They HAVE to move before Gharwar runs water� �Twill be interesting to see what alliances appear along the way. China and Japan (both heavily dependent upon ME oil) are amassing/preserving their bargaining chips (pegged currency, enormous dollar reserves, "willingness" to fund US deficits and keeping US IR low). Meanwhile, in the UK, Tony B.liar, having perjured himself in front of the nation once over Iraq, must be wondering where his personal nightmare is going to end. Perhaps he may live to be remembered as the great PM who took the UK to war (even on a lie) to secure reliable energy supplies for the nation (through the US alliance and control of the ME oilfields), as the North Sea fields continue their inexorable decline�

IMF gold

Assuming that the IMF members still have title to their gold deposits, it is hard to see there being any support for gold sales, but perhaps a lot of support for gold revaluations. After all, if you had an asset in your family bank account that the bank one day decided to revalue upwards about eight-times ($53 - $424 say), and offset that revised valuation against your mortgage, what would be your answer? The alternative, selling, is not nearly so attractive as that may depress the market for gold considerably (in the short term); which would be bad news all round!

Why is Gordon Brown pressing the IMF gold issue? Good question Sir MK. There is something funny going on here�there is also something funny going on in gold lease rates � just about lowest ever, and 1M to 1Y rates all squashed tightly together near zero�as if NOONE wants to borrow gold anymore (knowing that they will have to pay it back in kind). Curious�

Off for some zzzzz

:-)

http://www.timesofmalta.com/core/article.php?id=177077Malta's (EU) *** gold-revaluation *** story...
Enjoy.

I am a residential real estate appraiser and about two years ago a bigtime U.S. lender contacted me about doing work directly from them, directly and not through an appraisal service company. They were coming out with a new product, a ten year adjustable mortgage, based on the LIBOR rate in England, with NO principal for ten years. Being in INDIANA, I proclaimed that the product would not work in the ten counties I cover because in the RED colored (conservative) ten counties of Southern Indiana where debts are paid off and no one will rent from you, the lender, for ten years ans owe the same outstanding balance. I questioned their position in this scheme, for if the real estate bubble bursts and property values slide 25%, you would own the entire lending portfolio. He, the lender, countered that I should not get a bad attitude about the propduct, because looking at the amortization schedule on a 30 year fixed mortgage, very little principal is actually being paid. He also said that their bank was predicting that property values would double by 2013 as evidenced by the numbers for M3, and that those dollars would have to go somewhere and that real estate would be one of the benfactors. He also said the U.S. stock market would be at/between 30,000 and 40,000. Somebody thinks hyperinflation is coming soon, within ten years.

FWIW, I agree with that analysis. As a matter of fact that has been the state of affairs in the U.S. economy since 1971 - when we went on the pure fiat money system. This is the nature of the fiat money system now in place, and until it fails what your banker friend was outlining to you is the reality with which we are dealing. The value of your home could triple from here. The value of your mortgage reduce by the same. Stocks could be at 30,000 and gold in four figures - all functions of monetary inflation.

We own gold against the day that this flawed system might fail. Ultimately, human institutions and creations are flawed. They are subject to deterioration, then decline, then dissolution and collapse. This that mimics similar processes in the natural order is part of the human condition.

When I decided to go into the gold business, I discussed the decision with a good friend who did the analysis for the investment division of a large trust. He was further along the carreer trajectory than I was and had quite a bit of experience under his belt (including a thorough study and understanding of the financial markets).

"Well, Mike, there will always be a market for gold, " he said.

The preceding explains why he might have said that. My friend's statement has always stuck with me.

Aside. . . .

Went to the Indy 500 this past Memorial Day. I have family in Indianapolis. What a thrill - especially when they hit the accelerator for the start of the race and the first time they thunder en masse around the track at full speed.

Good question. Just how much silver does China have to export?

I've no idea but can add some information. The reclaimation (recycling) of silver from used film and other sources has reportedly moved to China as has so much other labor intense manufacturing. China has a plentiful supply of cheaper labor and easier to comply with environmental laws. Silver reclaimation is dirty business. This newly claimed silver is being used, again in China, to produce new film, another industry that is now centered in China and has been for some time. Supposedly, with this relatively new source, there is now some yearly excess mining production which we may be seeing as this GFMS reported export.

As always seems the case with silver numbers, I can not verify any of this theory. Considering what I've recently read about Chinese growth, I doubt if they will have an excess of any commodity (natural resource) in the near future. Jim Rogers has published a new book titled "Hot Commodities" in which he devotes a whole chapter to the growth he has observed over the years from his six visits through China. They are now buying (and have been) huge amounts of steel, iron ore, oil, copper, lead, and soybeans along with other needed materials.

If anyone else has any information on silver exports from China, please share!
Patriots!!!!

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/1011943.cmssnip:

LONDON: Global gold consumption grew for the first time in �04 as economic growth in India, the US and China spurred and investors sought to hedge against a declining dollar, the World Gold Council said.

Consumption grew as much as 8%, to 2,725 tonnes, and compared with 2,524 tonnes in �03, after three years of decline, said Moaz Barakat, MD for the industry group for the Middle East, Turkey and Pakistan funded by gold mining companies.

"More wealth in places like India and China generated a feel-good factor, and encouraged people to buy," Barakat said in Dubai. Demand in India, the world's top gold consumer rose the fastest in six years.

Prices have climbed 6% over the past year, reaching a 16-year high in December, as the dollar dropped 4% against a basket of six major currencies amid widening US trade and budget deficits.

As gold is priced in dollars, it tends to gain when the US currency drops, as investors purchase the metal to hedge against declines in US assets.

India's economy grew at the fastest pace in 15 years in the 12 months to March 31, �04, at 8.5%, according to government data. Only China grew faster among the world's 20 biggest economies.

Demand for gold in Saudi Arabia, the world's fifth-largest consumer of the metal, also rose for the first year in four as record oil revenue boosted wealth.

"People had a lot of money and they didn't know what do with it," Barakat said. Saudi Arabians also bought more gold to hedge against the declining US currency, and because they thought gold prices might go higher, Barakat said.

http://olympics.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=7547548
I have reviewed much of what has come out of the G-7 conference so Katie Allen's report (2/05/05, linked above) under the Reuters banner was read with open eyes. The article, as suggested by its headline - "G7 Mulls IMF Gold Sales to Help Poor" - is slanted to lead the reader to believe that the G7 wants to sell its gold and much of that is based on the statements of IMF managing director Rodrigo Rato. But Rato in his interview (as reported by Reuters 2/04/04) was very careful to hedge his original comments saying that "he was not providing his opinion on whether the IMF should sell gold to finance a debt relief plan." He also said, in his capacity as the IMF's managing director, that "there were clear ways to sell gold effectively, IF IMF SHAREHOLDERS DECIDE TO PROCEED." (The emphasis is mine.) To my knowledge there was no other interview of Mr. Rato in which he was more supportive of the Gordon Brown proposal than stated here.

Clearly, Mr. Rato is trying to play the role of the good managing director ready to carry out the will of his shareholders. If the shareholders wish to sell the institution's gold, he is ready to do his job and get it sold in an orderly fashion. However, his willingness to perform his job should not be mistaken for advocating sales. For Reuters to take those statements and attempt to spin them into some sort of IMF endorsement of sales comes off as advocacy journalism of the worst sort.

Obviously, for whatever reason Reuters and the Exchequer aim to keep the gold market on its heels. One has to ask the question: To what end? Why not just drop the subject? Why stay in hot pursuit of IMF gold sales phantoms?

In the end, the U.S. has de facto veto power in the IMF, as Reuters points out, with 18+% voting share. The U.S. Treasury Department has adamantly stated that it has no love for Gordon Brown's third world debt rescue plan. So, as it stands right now, there's no chance of gold sales between now and the spring meeting (when Gordon Brown is sure to be back with this proposal), and there isn't much chance of sales after that, though I am sure this is not the last time we will see the mainstream financial press stumping for IMF gold sales.

No matter how much Reuters would like to rewrite this past weekend's events, the results the G-7 meetings were a clear defeat for the Chancellor of the Exchequer. The U.S. is not going along with his scheme and, though that might be a bitter pill for the Chancellor to swallow, it doesn't alter the reality. To the contrary, most reasonable individuals would assume that the book is closed on the subject. The fact that Brown was able to work the mention of gold into the final communiqu� (reworking Rato's statement to his advantage) is a shallow victory at best. As we Americans say: He was thrown a bone. The IMF can prepare for sales (one wonders how diligent those preparations will be). That doesn't mean they are going to occur.

As a final note, I would like to add that in years gone by, we who own gold and advocate ownership for others would have had to sit back and just take it all in when gold's opponents took to the media to advance an anti-gold agenda. In essence, our side in most instances was kept from airing the opposing view or found it buried at the bottom of the page. Now with the advent of the internet, we have the opportunity to respond to this sort of story directly, and that response is likely to get wide play. The public is now getting both sides of the gold story, not just the one the mainstream press wants it to see.

That, in my estimation, has been a major factor in gold's rise since Mr. Brown's last foray into the gold market in 1999. Since those days four years ago, and the ill-advised Bank of England auctions, gold has risen approximately 60% outpacing nearly every other asset class. When you blend into the equation the opportunity cost shouldered by the Bank of England via its dollar investments, the total loss from selling its gold is substantial.

Maybe, in the end, that is why the U.S. Treasury Department is opposed to the sales. Perhaps it understands that the asset might be better utilized than to relegate it with similar results to a financial markets version of a garage sale -- an embarrassing deja vu that we would all be better served by avoiding. What Mr. Brown should have realized the last time around is that once the asset is gone, it is simply gone, and in the case of gold probably irretrievable.

How much better off would the Bank of England been today had the "portfolio managers" there simply held on to Britain's gold? Instead they opted for bonds denominated in U.S. dollars. Belgian's posting on Malta's gold story is a case in point - a success story for institutionally held gold.

I will post again the words spoken in Parliament by Sir Henry Tapsell, 1999:

"The whole point about gold, and the quality that makes it so special and almost mystical in its appeal, is that it is universal, eternal and almost indestructible. The Minister will agree that it is also beautiful. The most enduring brand slogan of all time is, 'As good as gold.' The scientists can clone sheep, and may soon be able to clone humans, but they are still a long way from being able to clone gold, although they have been trying to do so for 10,000 years. The Chancellor may think that he has discovered a new Labour version of the alchemist's stone, but his dollars, yen and euros will not always glitter in a storm and they will never be mistaken for gold."

Note: The original Reuters story quoting Rodrigo Rato is at the following link:

http://futures.fxstreet.com/Futures/news/afx/singleNew.asp?menu=economicnews&pv_noticia=MTFH93713_2005-02-04_20-36-20_N04546931

It is important to see his comments in their original context.

1. PAAS chief, Ross Beatty, has documented the silver exports from China pretty accurately over the years. Those exports were to have been exhausted--or supposedly so, in 2004. It seems that chinese silver was helping to keep the lid on the silver market over the past 4 years.

2. David Morgan, another silver market guru. More or less concurs that silver suppply from China seems to be waning. He has travelled to china and has seen a grass roots effort in China to rekindle Silver Mining in the country.

3. If China needs copper, tin, iron ore, steel, bauxite, nickle, and every other commodity under the sun for their Lion-like economy why would silver be the exception???

4. Jim Rodgers was recently interviewed by Jim Puplava over the weekend---NOT ONE MENTION OF SILVER. Jim will talk up lead or zinc, but he won't say a word about silver or when asked about gold his eyes hit the floor as he says,"sure, I own a liitle gold, but look at lead, its up some gigundo %".

5. SILVER IS THE PLACE TO BE---too many questions and no answers---DOES SILVER HAVE ANY FRIENDS??? Who will admit to be a friend of silver?

Silver---one ounce is too many, 1000 ounces is not enough!

Perhaps the US Treasury sees a role for physical gold in global monetary affairs; perhaps even as a strategem to avoid the loss of reserve status for their dollar. The reserve staus issue is where the rubber hits the road; that's the ball you DON'T take your eye off of IMHO. I remember asking the mysterious gentleman from cyberspace what might the US contingency plan be (with regards the EURO paradigm as presented)? Although I have no confidence in the minions of government, the people employed by the government are not totally bereft of intellignece! FOA never gave me a reasonable answer. In fact, I don't think he had one. We live in a world upside down. Absolutely no occurrence should surprise anyone. For the US government to go public in favor of gold playing an obvious role in world monetary affairs at this juncture would be, in my opinion, the logical and rational choice.

http://www.usagold.com/buy-gold-coins.html

POG CONTEST UPDATE as of Sunday 2/6/05 13:00 Denver time !
--
$$$$ $432.0 $$$$ spikedog (02/04/05; 22:50:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 128898)

$$$$ $429.9 $$$$ Gandalf the White (02/04/05; 11:27:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 128871)

$$$$ $426.5 $$$$ Sundeck (02/04/05; 17:10:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 128888)

$$$$ $426.0 $$$$ Topaz (02/04/05; 16:52:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 128886)

$$$$ $424.2 $$$$ lifer (02/04/05; 15:22:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 128883)

$$$$ $422.3 $$$$ slingshot (02/04/05; 15:35:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 128885)

$$$$ $415.9 $$$$ Smeagol (02/05/05; 15:44:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 128925)


=====

AND -- In case you missed the CALL TO CONTEST ----

Gandalf the White (02/04/05; 10:53:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 128869)
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ A "PRICE of GOLD" GUESSING CONTEST!! $$$$$$$$$$$$

We shall have a price guessing contest on the closing (Settlement price) of gold for the April COMEX contract (GCJ05) on Wednesday, February 16, 2005, ---BUT all entries must be posted to the TableRound before Midnight on Sunday, February 13th.

The "Price of Gold" (POG) Contest winner -- the person with the closest price guess to the actual Settlement Price -- will receive a nineteenth Century 20 Lira Italian Umberto I coin, (which may be seen at the following LINK).
http://www.usagold.com/gold/coins/ItalyUmb.html
These coins were Minted between 1880 - 1897 with a Fineness of 0.900, which therefore contains an "Actual Gold Content" of 0.1867 net fine troy ounces of pure GOLD !

There will be also be two runners-up prizes for the next closest prognostications --- each winning an one ounce U.S. Silver Eagle.

THE RULES -- (We MUST have RULES !!) --- PLEASE READ !!

1) The Winner is the poster with the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX (most active) April 2005 Gold Contract (GCJ05) on the date of Wednesday, February 16, 2005.

3) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $421.0)

4) "Guesses" shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT BOX location AND enclosed in markers of "Dollar Signs" so as to be OFFICIAL !
(Such as $$$$$ $421.0 $$$$$$$ )

5) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! "FIRST COME" has rights to that "Guess".

6) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes MIDNIGHT (24:00) on Sunday, February 13, 2005.

7) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY--- (as this part MUST accompany the Price prognostication)
--- In order for your entry to be valid, entries will be REQUIRED to answer the DIFFICULT and controversial subject by "Determining and COMPLETING the following statement": <;-)

I read the USAGOLD Forum ( how often? ) because ------ (in 25 words or more!).

--
LET the CONTEST continue !
===
"COME ON IN" all you Lurkers ! Now is the time to get your Posting Code from the TownCrier at the Link at the top of this PAGE !
<;-)

The U.S. is apparently taking a wait and see attitude presently towards Iran. According to Sec. of State Rice, the U.S. will give negotiations between Europe and Iran regarding the nuclear issue some time to succeed or fail in their opinion, before taking possible action against Iran. Given the previous attack on Iraq and the unfavorable world opinion that generated for the U.s., my feeling is that the Israelis (they have a history in the region for this sort of thing) might be up for the action, with the U.s. holding their coat with logistical support.

I find myself divided on the issue. On the one hand, I see a sovereign nation's right to decide that it wants to develop a nuclear power industry. I wish that we had not abandoned our own nuclear power industry after the Three Mile Island incident. The simple fact that Iran, at this point has oil to burn, is no good reason for them not to develop nuclear power for their nation if they have the means to do so. ------On the other hand, the U.S. administration (rightly or wrongly) sees the nuclear power industry reasoning pointed to by Iran as a ruse, designed to hide it's true intentions of developing nuclear weapons. Thereby, threatening it's neighbors in the region; something that we (the U.S.) have said we will not allow. On the surface Iran's gaining "the bomb" appears a scary thought.

Since WW2 however, many nations have gained nuclear weapons; many right there in the region surrounding Iran. [can we see reason for their paranoia?] Pakistan, India, Russia, and Israel come to mind. To date, all of these nations have been extremely careful not to use them; knowing the possible consequences for their own people. A few nations, and I can think of some, France, Japan, and the United States come to mind, went beyond the weaponry, to develop nuclear power for the good reasons. Should the criteria now for nuclear power development depend solely upon a countries good relations with the United States? And if so, what other foreign policy issues boil down to the either with us or against us mantra, worthy of attack? --Oil for Euros, yen, or yuan? Selling U.s. bonds? or dollars en mass--amounting to a financial attack?

Unfortunately, a bitter truth appears to be gaining recognition; the best way to deter possible future attack from anyone (U.S. included) is to possess nuclear weapons. Look at the little mouse that recently roared: North Korea. After acknowledging that they had in fact developed the bomb and threatening to turn neighboring countries into fiery hell holes of death should they be attacked, the U.S. backed way off! Lessons learned. Has anyone heard strident language in the past year from the U.S. or anyone else threatening the North Koreans should they not knuckle under?

If we look on a map of the Middle East, we find that Iran is three times the physical size of Iraq with a population at least double Iraq's. It has oil, and regardless of administration confidence that this nation like Iraq has a dissatisfied population looking for regime change; it will have an irate population likely to galvanize internally if attacked from the outside.

Just how far down the road of remaking the world in our own image are we prepared to travel? How long before more of the world views the United States as the problem? Forcing democracy at the point of a gun. Will the nations of the world come to view the people that repeatedly traveled aboad in the twentieth century to free the world from tyranny--as now the tyrants? At some point, taking action, even subconsciously, to subdue us where most vulnerable--in the financial and oil markets? These are some questions that I find myself pondering.

Thanks for the open forum time period, to ask some of these questions aloud, indirectly related to gold and the currencies.

Jim Puplava has, in the past, advocated the physical ownership of both gold and silver. As for Jim Rogers, he also does not mention silver in his new book, "Hot Commodities". I'm almost through it and have enjoyed it immensely so far. He talks briefly about some commodities and presents a fairly accurate (imho) view of those, although not in depth and with only a superficial, long term point of view, probably necessary when remembering that time elaspses between the work's completion and its finished publication. A book can not be updated as easily as can daily, weekly or even monthly advisories. However, he repeatedly states that his investments are made almost entirely upon an evaluation of supply and demand. He is a true fundamental, long term position investor.

Rogers does mention gold and is fairly favorable towards it but states that he sees a greater return potential in some other markets. It's not that he does not like gold, just that he sees more potential elsewhere. But...he mentions that he holds a percentage of his wealth in gold and already has bought more, for his young daugther.

He also compares investing in commodities as opposed to stocks and bonds, pointing out that, in his opinion, commodity investment is no more difficult or mysterious than owning equities. One chapter gives a brief description of how commodities are traded. IMO it is nowhere near enough information on which to venture into these markets but, Mr. Rogers doesn't claim that it is, nor does the book intend to be so. He does touch upon the issue of leverage but does not (again, imho) emphasize enough the inherent danger of holding positions, that can move against the investor, on such tight margin. Then again, not being in that situation (somewhat underfunded that is) maybe the danger is not as readily apparent to him..?

Overall, and especially for the information and insights offered on China, I'm most happy to have bought the book. I read with my usual small plastic ruler and a pen for underlining. I just underlined the chapter heading on China as it will all be worth rereading many times...or, at least until it sinks into my thick head. Although Jim Rogers offers not one word on silver, I'll confess to being a friend of silver, if, by that, you mean one who believes silver is undervalued in dollar terms. I own phyiscal and have gone up and down with paper investments since the POS was around $4.00.

Lastly, to anyone who does read this book, I advise to pay special attention to the chapter on coffee. All of the information is truthful to the best of my knowledge and some information that is conspicuously absent (both past and current) from his limited presentation is also very bullish toward the long term. As always, just one man's opinion.
rich

Every week. Friday 12 noon to Sunday 12 noon FST (Forum Standard Time)

Thank you for your participation.

and not even pretending to have read the last couple of days posts diligently;
Instead having used the the weekend to debate these issues with a recently retired US career diplomat and a friend for more than 30 years visiting with us.
The eventual outcome of the (un-)diplomacy of the GWB neocon policies on global issues in particular including issues of economics, reserve currency and overall indebtness is not a question of "if", but a question of "when"!

That, IMHO, has always been my stance and still is - namely, the collapse of the USA in any economic or other sense will also bring down the rest of the globe. It will eventually come - oh, it may come sooner by accident - though, by any measure it will be brutal. Brutal to the US and potentially even more brutal to the rest of the globe.

Even if that goes against the grain of "scholars" of A/FOA, a fact I've more than once stated I'd rather stick to my beliefs more than ever. Todays EU and its piddling � is here by the grace of an extremely generous Marshall Plan, devised for the benefit of "West-Europeans" to have a chance to survive their communist neighbors. The Western Part even had the protection of the US military might and against, what most European politicians are preaching now -
it was not devised for economic gains. - Just like the global Tsunami aid today - the Marshal Plan was devised to overcome the brown tide of destruction of Tsunami proportions in the world.

In the end - even if we find the neocon admin in the US not at all to our liking; We still have mountains of debts to pay off towards the Americans. Americans, who have proven to be more than friends over tumultous years of our own history and always came to our rescue.

Ok; Now we feel they're taking back their share and overspend by "virtue" of a hegemonial reserve status ... Great, we condemn them right away; Though it was only a generation ago they still were the biggest creditor on the globe.

OK; I guess, all of the above is beside the point as gold is still the ultimate value - and even if financial companies have outgrown their wellcome as a percentage on on the S&P and so have energy companies in the 70's ... who's to say real production never comes back?

... Before Kontratieff, the old Irish Monks have found out about "market" cycles ...

cb2, personally has found out that some physical works wonders for sound sleep at night and a bit of diversification is an additive spice to keep and alderly guy young...

PS: The G7 resume' was pars pro toto ... better a little bit of bitching for nothing. The (in-)fluencaed and missing Snow-job-man has done his best to stay home and not mention the litany ... the market is taking care of its own idiots ... sometimes.

Also read my friend's J.Turk's. s.t. $ essay ....

I only wish you had more time to carry forth that train of thought on a regular basis...YGM

We're just trying to give the Austrians a little competition, CB. As for the One-ski routine -- Bode learned that one from Rahlves and then did him one better.

All,
I will go ahead and post the lowball price guess so far. The US peso may continue its upward run based on govt hot air for another couple of weeks so I think the price of the yellow metal will not rally for a bit. So I'll pick $407.10

I tune into this discussion about twice a day, if time permits, as I think the group at USAGold are some of the sharpest dudes on the planet. Great posts by Belgian, Sundeck, others this weekend on G7, G Brown, Condi/Iran, etc.
Many, many thanks to all who make this site possible. I applaud you!

http://www.crbtrader.com/data/default.asp?page=quote&sym=GCJ5&mode=dFeb (current) Vol/OI could get interesting if it becomes apparent the IMF Gold is not slated for sale.

BPoG = 349.93

....Knows very well that "Peak Oil" comes closer ('08-'10) and that the Western demographic clock is ticking !
This means that our "CAPITAL BASIS" is eroding ...faster and faster ! This silent forum knows there are only two possible ways out of this...GOLD or seeking refuge in spirituality >-:-< .

So it's either Midas Belgian
or St.Belgian...but...
No but. Alternative insights
can't be discussed on a public
forum.
Well, find me a cave, with
plenty of hard firewood, many
barrels of a decent wine,
comraderie, a bit of music and
keen minds...and gold and cabal
and the electronic new world
can go to hell...OvS

Given the new silver reality
(inventory, supply & demand)
it doesn't make sense to treat
silver as a monetary metal any
longer.
I think those responsible to
manage its price are oldtimers,
transfixed upon yesterdays
environment.
It would make much more sense
to have silver trade like
Rhodium, Platinum or Palladium.
Gold, of course, is the great
standby to prop up the financial
world's house of cards to trans-
fix that illusion into something
real. OvS

http://www.usagold.com/gold/special/grp.html

http://www.usagold.com/cpm/goldhelp.html

Q. In your book, The ABCs of Gold Investing: Protecting Your Wealth through Private Gold Ownership you start the chapter by saying "Who you do business with is one of the most important aspects of gold investing." Why is that?

MK. Most, if not all, of the progress an investor makes towards realizing his or her goals with respect to gold ownership hinges on that relationship. Unbiased, objective advice from one's gold advisor is a key element. So are market information and education. Pricing, product selection, fulfillment and on-going support also rely on that relationship. Above all, it is extremely important for gold buyers to match their objectives with the type of gold they buy. Positive results in all of those areas depend upon a strong relationship with a gold firm. That is why it is important to spend some time finding the right one.

Q. Can you briefly describe some of the pitfalls a beginner might be on the look out for?

MK. The biggest trap investors fall into is buying a gold investment that bears little or no relationship to his or her objectives. Take safe haven investors for example. That group makes up 90% of our clientele, and probably a good 75% of the current physical gold market. Most often the safe-haven investors simply want to add gold coins to their portfolio mix, but by the time they finish talking with a typical national firm, they might end up in a leveraged gold position, exotic rare coins, or being diverted into silver or platinum. Others drift into gold stocks or gold futures which in reality are proxies for real gold ownership and could actually act opposite the intent of the investor. There's nothing wrong with any of these non-physical investments per se, it's just that none of them is really a safe-haven. The investor should bear this in mind. The question investors must always answer for themselves is "How will this investment serve me should the economy or financial markets suffer a major disruption?"

The first thing Condy does is give away 40 mil,is that diplomacy or bribery ?I said the other day she's going to get her pocket picked.I thought the Europeans would get to her first,but seems like the Palestineans will set the pace and the rest will size her up to see how much shes good for.
Irak is failing 'so maybe mid east will divert attention.
Rummy says troops are under stress and recruits are down !
That tells me Irak is headed for cival war.
Bush says no to Gold sales.It what he doesent say thats dangerous.Will we BUY gold from IMF ?That means we pay for it with Bonds (debt).!
Dear Condy: Go back home you are not needed to make peace,they can do it without you.The only reason they want you there is to pick your pocket. Go Home !!You are not as smart as you think you are !

http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/content/10800/content.asp?menu=macro&dia=722005(FXstreet) -- The European Commission and Cyprus reminded Turkey that she must extend her customs union with the EU to include the partitioned island before it could begin membership talks with the bloc as planned on October 3rd, 2005.

Asked what would happen if Turkey did not sign the protocol, senior European Commission official Jean-Christophe Filori told that if the delay was a result of political resistance in Turkey, it would be a problem and the negotiations would not start.

Meanwhile, Turkey's Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, aware of the high stakes involved, said that there would be no delay in signing the document, though he had given no specific date. He added, at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, that he would never want to extend the process. Filori also said that the EU had no plans to get directly involved in any revived diplomatic drive to reunite Cyprus, saying this would remain the responsibility of the United Nations.

Filori said a framework document establishing the structure for Turkey's accession talks would be ready by June at the latest. However, he declined to say how long he thought the negotiations would last.

^-----(from url)-----^

"Stickless" euro-region political styling -- carrot vs no carrot -- offers an attractive alternative that plays well. (Something about catching more flies with honey than with vinegar).

R.

http://www.reuters.co.uk/financeArticle.jhtml?type=allBreakingNews&storyID=7558305LONDON, Feb 7 (Reuters) - Gold fell to a near four-month low on Monday as the market tried to guess what the IMF might say about using its huge gold reserves to help finance debt relief for poor countries.

"Whatever happens the market is going to be disconcerted and on the back foot until the April IMF meetings," UBS Investment Bank Analyst John Reade said.

Under a 1971 agreement, most IMF gold is valued at $40 to $50 an ounce, about a 10th of current market prices.

Analysts said the prospect of outright sales was unlikely due to expected opposition from the United States, which has key voting rights within the IMF.

But the psychological impact of the issue was bearish for the price of gold.

"There will be revaluation at worst...but the U.S. carries the veto," Barclays Capital analyst Kamal Naqvi said.

"We see it as a short-term negative but that's all really. It will be interesting to see what happens but it all depends on how any plan is structured," a London-based fund source said.

^-----(from url)-----^

This is superficial compared to the sales of paper that occur daily and to much less fanfare. Think about it. Which type of asset would you rather hold at the end of the day -- a tangible bit of property, or a papery promise?

R.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/kosares020405.htmlConsidering some of the whys and wherefores.

R.

http://www.borsaitalia.it/fwa-cgi-bin/news.pl?id=1107796124nL07154220&tit=Euro%20debt-Yields%20plunge%20as%20investors%20chase%20long-dated%20papers&type=internazionali&ling=ENLONDON, Feb 7 (Reuters) - Ten-year European government bond yields fell to their lowest levels in 20 months and 30-year yields fell to all-time lows on Monday, as long-dated debt gained from flattening trades that have been in vogue in recent months.

...Demand for ultra-long dated debt has proven strong recently with pension funds and insurers bracing for heavier long-term liabilities driven by Europe's ageing population.

Against this background, the French Treasury last week said it was looking at issuing 50-year bonds to tap growing demand from the financial industry for ultra-long maturities.

^-----(from url)-----^

A study in contrast, any way you look at it. The ability of a currency system to successfully float long(est)-term bonds versus the failure of another is perhaps the best signal of which contestent is coming out on top in the battle for supremacy.

The long trudging days of the IMF/dollar system's suppression of gold is nearing the end, with the latest IMF gold-sale rumblings likely being an endgame's cheap gambit.

Use the extra time and artificial bargain price to your advantage.

R.

So many different identies are speaking/messaging to each other through the public media.
It is now being suggested that the whole debt-forgiviness affair will be studied case by case.
But how can Big debt (first world) forgive Small debt (third world) !? Does debt, any debt... still matters ?

Also under the chapter of stories and realities...Is the dollar really serious about "thighthening" >>>...POO down, dollar up...IRs in check...deficits halved... ? Why is it that monetary and fiscal policies are suddenly going to be changed ? Let's think about this when we see the $-POG slipping and the $ rising. All analysts do refer to Greenspan's speach on friday as to explain the ongoing reactions.

$-POG / $-POO / $ exch. rate, are retracing in (Fibonacci) lockstep. None of the existing major trends will break (imvho). Manufactured realities with planted stories !?

http://www.cwscapital.com/pubs/qupdates/050130/change.htmlHe observes that the yield curve is already inverted in the UK, and expects yield curve inversion in the US by year end, with short term yields at 3.5% and 10 year bond yields below 3.5%.

It is said that the inversion of the yield curve predicts recession.

http://fcvera.blogspot.com/She wonders whether the "real hurricane of social movements [that took] place right in the core of the old continent", were Washington controlled or not.

One recalls De Gaulle and 1968, instictively.

http://sg.biz.yahoo.com/050207/15/3qee9.html
Here are two of the more interesting takes on the IMF sales I came across this weekend. From an otherwise negative Dow Jones article linked above:

1. "(Since the [Central Bank Gold] accord) the supply side of the story has been positive, with falling production from mines and also from central banks. On a fundamental basis the market is relatively tight, so if that situation was reversed, it would certainly take a bit heat out of market."
Daniel Hynes, ANZ Bank

2. "While details are still shaky, any revaluation may involve countries with low gold reserves, such as Japan and China, swapping a portion of their U.S. Treasurys for gold with IMF shareholder countries at a re-valued price, said CBA commodity strategist David Thurtell."
________

MK comment: The Thurtell quote raises an interesting prospect. What if any potentital IMF sale turned out to be nothing more than a way to get gold to the Japanese, Chinese, et al in exchange for some of their dollar holdings. Let me take it a step further, what if the Japanese and Chinese have called the bullion banks looking to buy and threw a scare into them. Why do I call it "a scare?" Because the reality is that there is a shortage as Mr. Hynes points out above. Consider for a moment what would happen to the price of gold if it got out that Japan and China were in the market. I'll make one more comment and then let this go for the time being. I believe that if the IMF were serious about ridding itself of its golden burden they could make two telephone calls and be rid of it immediately without fanfare -- one to Japan, the other to China. No need to worry about stretching the sales out, or injuring the "fragile" gold market. It could all be done seamlessly. Just transfer it all to Japan and China and they will end up with the beginnings of a world class gold reserve reflecting their successes in the economic arena.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5744,12170246%255E2703,00.html Amazing to hear our New Sec State bark out orders and commands to Russia. She lectured them like they were students in a classroom! Amazing arrogance.

Mass incompetence in the Administration now, in Foreign Affairs, Fiscal Statemenship, Trade, Law Enforcement (immigration, anti-trust).

To call this budget "lean" is ridiculous. Maybe "mean" for impact on the poor, whose programs are being chopped, whose jobs are being outsourced; but not the rich who are still lapping up huge tax cuts during a time of war!

Spending is out of control relative to taxation; and taxation is now becoming regressive.

I should have added to my post below that this sort of conjecture is interesting to say the least, but the odds on result is still that there will be no sales or revaluation of the IMF due to the U.S.' opposition.

That's a cool drink of water!

Big debt (first world) can ignore the strict rules for itself, and concessions are given to the little debt players only as necessary to keep them in and playing the game in service to the masters. Once the little ones (third world, individuals) fall out of service from hopelessness or destruction, the big debt first world has lost is power of control and the reason for keeping up the game. "MONOPOLY" has no incentive for you to keep rolling the dice and stacking the Chance cards when the others have bailed out leaving you as the only token on the board.

The players with hotels will give the little ones as much paper as can still buy them a little hope to stay in and have another try at a trip around the board. To be sure, the legitimate $200 all the little ones "mine" each time they pass the "GO" square does not stay in their hands for long. "Give us your tires, your ore, your barrelled molasses... because you owe us dearly for keeping you in the game."

As an individual, you can choose gold and not be so easily controlled by your would-be debt-fuelled controllers.

R.

http://www.peakoil.com/forums.html
Sir Belgian wrote:

"This silent forum....Knows very well that "Peak Oil" comes closer ('08-'10) and that the Western demographic clock is ticking !
This means that our "CAPITAL BASIS" is eroding ...faster and faster ! This silent forum knows there are only two possible ways out of this...GOLD or seeking refuge in spirituality >-:-< .".

May I respectfully suggest that Both Gold and Spirituality are in order. (Big Grin Sir).

In my opinion, "Peak Oil" is the baby elephant in the room which the politicians and press are trying to ignore in hopes that it will somehow just go away, but which will grow over the coming years to become a full grown giant raging bull elephant that will dominate financial events and our very lives in ways we have yet to fully comprehend.

Clearly this forum is NOT the place to discuss "Peak Oil" because such discussions would rapidly spin out of control and lead us away from our topic of "Gold and Economics", although it is also clear that "Peak Oil" will have a major impact on financial markets, and on the need to invest in gold.

The above link is to a group of peak oil forums which I have found where such discussions are welcomed, and where you will find a wide verity of opinions on how it will all play out, and on how to prepare.

As I see it, holding physical Gold, in your possession, is an important part of preparing for the troubled times ahead, however they may play out, and I thank you Sir Belgian for your always insightful contributions to this forum.

On Social Security personal accounts, I wonder what impact "Peak Oil" will have on expected yields? Ouch.

DryWasher.

http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Daily Gold Market Report has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.

Monday Market Excerpts

U.S. gold futures closed at a near-four-month low Monday, depressed by a weaker euro and uncertainty about what the International Monetary Fund may do regarding possible sales or a revaluation of its gold holdings.

COMEX April gold futures fell 50 cents to $415.40. On a closing basis, it was the contract's lowest since Sept. 27.

Dealers said a blend of fund long liquidation and stop-loss selling pulled prices lower, although bargain hunting at lower levels and physical demand for gold, particularly from Southeast Asia, have given support to the market.

Finance chiefs from the Group of Seven industrialized nations who met in London this weekend said IMF Managing Director Rodrigo Rato would look at proposals to revalue or sell gold reserves.

The IMF, which will report back in April on debt relief, is the world's third-biggest holder of gold bullion, with more than 100 million ounces.

Under a 1971 agreement, most IMF gold is valued at $40 to $50 an ounce, about a 10th of current market prices.

The prospect of outright sales was unlikely due to expected opposition from the United States, which has key voting rights within the IMF, traders and analysts said.

After the weekend G7 meeting produced no change in foreign exchange policies, markets barely reacted to U.S. President George W. Bush's budget proposal for fiscal 2006.

Bush forecast a fall in the budget deficit to $251 billion by fiscal 2008 -- excluding costs of war and Social Security.

That would be down to 1.7 percent of gross domestic product, from 3.6 percent in fiscal 2004.

-----(see url for access to full news, 24-hr international newswire)---

HEADLINES

Argentine stocks rise to new high, peso flat

Chile stocks hit record high as economy booms

Dollar at year's high as deficit concerns abate for now

Dollar, IMF Push Gold Near 4-Month Low

White House budget assumes steady economic growth

Fretting about inflation

I stick to the stealth "re-distribution" theory and any gold stash (has been) will be used to resort maximum effects with as little loss of control (leverage) as possible.
Exploit the minimum amount of gold for extended dollar-use return. Point simply is, to hide this particular gold-dollar connection, wich is in everybody's interest and as always...for the time being.

Certainly, a lot of gold has been mobilized for this purpose, in the past decade. The fact that the IMF's 3,210 tonnes are coming on the surface again, is a sign ...evidence...that the dollar is slowly running out of supportive (willing) gold. The remaining gold is buying less and less time. Might be one of the main reasons that a propaganda offensive (dollar sanitation) has started (is needed)? Pourvu que sa dure (for as long as it lasts).

G. Brown serves as the perfect cover up for this ongoing maneuvering. But that's another story, of course.

Keep this IMF / gold-thing on your watchlist, Sir MK.

If the dollar doesn't allow the goldprice to float...the dollar must provide metal !

From the DMR --- "Bush forecast a fall in the budget deficit to $251 billion by fiscal 2008 -- excluding costs of war and Social Security."

In keeping with that liberal style of presentation, I have a few other announcements to make.

I can fly -- excluding the detail that I can't get off the ground.

I am a millionaire -- exluding the prerequisite of a million dollars.

There is no problem with our global trade balances -- except for the obvious ones.

etc, etc...

R.

"Peak oil" is OK to be brought into the public. As long as this peak oil talk is NOT related to the dollar or/and gold ! In other words, oil-talk is fine but talk about the "real" oil-policies are a delicate matter of national security. In analogy with this, is gold for debt-relief being OK, whilst the real gold-policies are also a matter of national security and must remain for the internal kitchen.
I'm sure you know how the real elephant looks like. :-)..(-:

Who owns the IMF gold? Wasn't it 3700 tons? If I saw my gold being controlled by the IMF and I wanted it "freed" how would I do this with out creating any disturbance? Seems to me the EU has the majority of the gold, maybe they want to bring it "home". (Before someone sells it!).
Maybe G Brown was working for free gold all along? Where did all the gold he sold end up?
I think there is more to this than just the news paper verbage.

SYDNEY (Dow Jones)-- excerpts:

...many in the industry are doubtful the plan, endorsed by U.K.
Chancellor of Exchequer Gordon Brown, among others, can proceed. Barriers include the expected five to 10 years it would take for a
controlled selloff; the negative impact additional supply would have on poor,
gold-producing countries such as Mali and Indonesia...

Re-valuing its gold to reflect market prices would allow the IMF to write
off some of the $11 billion owed to it by poorer countries with minimal net
impact on its books.

For some, this would amount to little more than an accounting gimmick. For others,
however, revaluation would be a first logical step to test the market's
reaction.

For the time being, ...the IMF proposal is all about market sentiment, players say, and are one of
the factors currently holding the yellow metal around three-and-a-half-month
lows.

^-------(from DowJones article)-----^

Although I have edited out a lot of garbage from a lengthly article filled with ill-informed sources, even in what remains there is much to ridicule.

Most laughable is the concern "the negative impact additional supply (from IMF sales) would have on poor, gold-producing countries such as Mali and Indonesia".

If nobody has been overly concerned about the negative price-impact that dumping massive virtual tonnage of paper gold into the market has had on these countries for all these years, why should they suddenly worry about any additional impact from the potential selling of no more than 3200 REAL tonnes?

As MK has already said, those 3,200 real tonnes could be gobbled up in a flash, as they are a superior asset to the alternative, promissory gold, which is not sufficiently counter-correlated with dollars to achieve effective risk abeyance during times of market crisis and chaos.

The price of gold is low because much of it is only paper, and the market doesn't currently make the distinction when quoting a price. But you can. Choose real gold for as long as it flows at the papergold price.

Call USAGOLD-Centennial for consultation on a diversification strategy that's right for you.

R.

Just a few thoughts off the cuff. We've had this IMF gold revaluation a/o sale for debt relief of the poorest countries for recurring from time to time.

In the last instance it was the US Tsy. itself voting against such a move. After all the gold still belongs to IMF's members and the US has -if my recollection is somewhat correct - about 37% of the vote - no idea if that's equal to its gold share, though!

I'm always a bit stunned by the (also) recurring theme debt relief for the poorest. Why are these guys in this untenable situation to begin with? Mostly these countries have some natural resources of interest to have qualified for IMF loans in first place. To subject yourself to such loans has been the origin of their real troubles. Even formerly rich countries, like Argentinia, Venuzuela and even SAfrica amongst many others felt the heat; Or is it really black mail?

The simple question to ask is - who in hell is the most indebted country today? Well, there you are; It is the country of the consumer of last resort- used to be IMF's ruse to be the lender of last resort - which by now may well be the international C.B's cartel of fiat money creators lending their crisp new cyber currency to the IMF,
WB and any takers willing to prolong charade.

... And the charade will be prolonged, external shocks notwithstanding - see LTCM - as long as the major perpetrators, usurers, blackmailers see a chance to hang on for another day.

Wondering, who really got the gold and even wondering more if the IMF member's gold is still an issue, not already obligated by the PTB?

Here's why�

Looking at the relationship between the USDX and the spot POG since early 2001, for the period up to about the end of 2003, the best linear fit to the scattered data is represented by the line:

P = -3.65 * D + 709

Where P = the POG and D is the USDX.

Over the last year or so (you can take it from me) we have seen the POG lying consistently above this line of best fit�by as much as $30-40, but typically by about $10-15. The reason for this is probably mostly due to: (a) Japanese intervention to weaken the Yen, and support the dollar, so that over the last year or so the USDX has been held higher than it should have been (remember, the Yen has the second largest weighting in the USDX after the Euro), (b) a general increase in the "investment" interest in gold from a variety of sources, and (c) a gradual drying up of gold sources from falling new mine production, reduced leasing and mining-company hedge-book reductions.

At the moment, with the USDX at about 85, the POG still lies above the 2001-2003 trend-line by about $15. It is as if the "strength" of the US dollar, measured against other assets (currencies in this case) is the predominant "driver" of the POG and that things like "talk of CB sales" or "talk of IMF sales and/or revaluations" are really having very little affect.


Lease Rates.

Looking at a chart of the long-term gold lease rates (at Kitco, for example), we note that the trend in lease-rates since mid-2001 has been a gradual, definite and almost unbroken decline to the present approximately 0.15%, with very little spread now between the 1, 3, 6 or 12-month rates. This indicates to me that one should be able to borrow gold for a song and not even a dance as well.

There would surely be few places where one could raise funds at this cost. Why aren't people borrowing gold for all they are worth, selling it and investing in damned near anything (real-estate, shares, commodities)??? Ok, I can understand folks in the US being a bit wary, because gold has been rising in US-dollars and the risk of having to buy-back gold in the future to repay the loan is perhaps no longer to Americans� liking�but what about Euroland, where gold in Euros has been pretty stable; or in the Ozzie dollar, or SA Rand�???

Is it because no-one is offering gold for lease, or that everyone is very wary of the risks involved, a combination of both, or some other reason????

Puzzled�

:-)

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
An interesting run down on everything from bonds and real estate bubbles in tonights Market Wrapup (see link). Nice to be prepared.

- Black Blade

http://money.cnn.com/2005/02/04/news/international/rubin_dollar.reut/index.htm
Snippit:


U.S. dollar will lose value over time, warns former Treasury Secretary Rubin. Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin said on Friday he believed the U.S. twin deficits could get worse and that the conventional view was that the dollar would decline over time.

Black Blade: The former Treasury Sec. and current exec. at Citigroup is finally catching on. Sure took him a long time though. Meanwhile as always, the best course of action is to get defensive by getting outta debt and staying outta debt, stash enough emergency cash for household expenses, accumulate Gold and Silver "portfolio insurance". and start a storage program of nonperishable food and basic necessities.

Maybe it is simply as has been postulated previously -- bullion banking operations are being wound down, "headed toward mothballs".

NM Rothchild and Sons surely didn't just decide to get out (and formally resign its LBMA member December 10, 2004) because they viewed the sector to be a GROWTH industry, did they?

When the European central banks signed the first Central Bank Gold Agreement in 1999 and announced a curb on their gold leasing participation a few banks apparently saw the writing on the wall and immediately bricked up the bullion wing of their enterprises, while still others closed their doors a little later on. Certainly clearing volumes have continued on their steady decline since that time, read into it what you will.

Lease rates as we see them these days may be less a legitimate market-clearing phenomenon and more a feat of institutional window-dressing that makes not but a goodly show for sixpence.

R.

http://today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=businessNews&storyID=2005-02-07T150020Z_01_N07187121_RTRIDST_0_BUSINESS-MARKETS-METALS-GOLD-IMF-DC.XML
Snippit:

LONDON (Reuters) - Gold fell to a near four-month low on Monday as the market tried to guess what the IMF might say about using its huge gold reserves to help finance debt relief for poor countries.

"Whatever happens the market is going to be disconcerted and on the back foot until the April IMF meetings," UBS Investment Bank Analyst John Reade said. Gold prices hovered around $415-416 an ounce.

Analysts said the prospect of outright sales was unlikely due to expected opposition from the United States, which has key voting rights within the IMF. But the psychological impact of the issue was bearish for the price of gold.

"There will be revaluation at worst...but the U.S. carries the veto," Barclays Capital analyst Kamal Naqvi said.

U.S. Treasury Under Secretary John Taylor said the United States had other plans for alleviating poverty. Asked about using IMF gold stocks, he said: "The United States is not convinced that's the necessary way to do it."

SGCIB economist Stephen Briggs said: "My initial feeling is that this is unlikely to go through because the U.S. is against it -- but you can make a very clear case for saying the gold market is likely to go down even if sales or revaluation don't actually happen."


Black Blade: Pretty much ado about nothing. The proposed plan would do absolutely nothing but put these Third World nations further in debt and even hurt the natural resource industries in those nations. Looks more as if Gordie Brown is only trying to enslave the Third World.

http://www.futuresource.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=GC&o=100/DX&a=D&z=610x300&d=LOW&b=LINE&st=The current downdraft in PoG, starting just prior to the New Year, preceded Dollar strength by a couple of Days.
Curiously, PoG has been STRONGER (relatively) since the IMF prattle not weaker....D-uh!

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=dmaxWith the 30Y T Yield now technically underwater and DX @ 85 the Dynamics change somewhat.
A Long-Yield spike here could be sufficient to underpin DX and re-establish 85 as support.
Too much money WILL NOW move to SM's imo, particularly if Oil gives it up!

We will all be millionaires soon. (as soon as a pint goes for $100 and a bottle of wine goes for $750 (sob! boo hoo hoo!)

The president said the budget defecit would come down.

He did not promise anything about the trade defecit.
He made no promises about the total US debt shrinking either.

Seen in that light he is being perfectly truthful, if not particularly honest.

Perhaps instead of a price guessing contest we should bet on the ratio of the POG/Sp500 or the like.

POG CONTEST UPDATE as of Tuesday 2/8/05 00:01 Denver time !
--
$$$$ $432.0 $$$$ spikedog (02/04/05; 22:50:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 128898)

$$$$ $429.9 $$$$ Gandalf the White (02/04/05; 11:27:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 128871)

$$$$ $426.5 $$$$ Sundeck (02/04/05; 17:10:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 128888)

$$$$ $426.0 $$$$ Topaz (02/04/05; 16:52:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 128886)

$$$$ $424.2 $$$$ lifer (02/04/05; 15:22:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 128883)

$$$$ $422.3 $$$$ slingshot (02/04/05; 15:35:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 128885)

$$$$ $415.9 $$$$ Smeagol (02/05/05; 15:44:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 128925)

$$$$ $407.1 $$$$ 2023 (2/6/05; 23:18:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 128961)

=====

AND -- In case you missed the CALL TO CONTEST ----

Gandalf the White (02/04/05; 10:53:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 128869)
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ A "PRICE of GOLD" GUESSING CONTEST!! $$$$$$$$$$$$

We shall have a price guessing contest on the closing (Settlement price) of gold for the April COMEX contract (GCJ05) on Wednesday, February 16, 2005, ---BUT all entries must be posted to the TableRound before Midnight on Sunday, February 13th.

The "Price of Gold" (POG) Contest winner -- the person with the closest price guess to the actual Settlement Price -- will receive a nineteenth Century 20 Lira Italian Umberto I coin, (which may be seen at the following LINK).
http://www.usagold.com/gold/coins/ItalyUmb.html
These coins were Minted between 1880 - 1897 with a Fineness of 0.900, which therefore contains an "Actual Gold Content" of 0.1867 net fine troy ounces of pure GOLD !

There will be also be two runners-up prizes for the next closest prognostications --- each winning an one ounce U.S. Silver Eagle.

THE RULES -- (We MUST have RULES !!) --- PLEASE READ !!

1) The Winner is the poster with the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX (most active) April 2005 Gold Contract (GCJ05) on the date of Wednesday, February 16, 2005.

3) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $421.0)

4) "Guesses" shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT BOX location AND enclosed in markers of "Dollar Signs" so as to be OFFICIAL !
(Such as $$$$$ $421.0 $$$$$$$ )

5) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! "FIRST COME" has rights to that "Guess".

6) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes MIDNIGHT (24:00) on Sunday, February 13, 2005.

7) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY--- (as this part MUST accompany the Price prognostication)
--- In order for your entry to be valid, entries will be REQUIRED to answer the DIFFICULT and controversial subject by "Determining and COMPLETING the following statement": <;-)

I read the USAGOLD Forum ( how often? ) because ------ (in 25 words or more!).

--
LET the CONTEST continue !
===
"COME ON IN" all you Lurkers ! Now is the time to get your Posting Code from the TownCrier at the Link at the top of this PAGE !
<;-)

I read the gold forum at usagold.com at least twice a day, because it's simply the best place to get all the daily gold news, and all the best discussion from the magnificent "riff raff" that frequent this place. Sure, you can go somewhere else, where "professionals" write daily essays, but here, I feel like it's folks like me talking about their favorite subject.

As for my guess, I'm always optimistic in these contests and I always lose, so I'm going to let me natural pessimism take this one. This IMF B.S. has the market spooked, and I think that suits the fiat peddlers just fine. In the end, if another fiat currency gains prominance as the world's reserve currency, it's ok by them, because it's the same song, different color. Gold, all 19.32 g/cm3 of the real thing, is something they don't want anyone looking at as a better currency than what folds in your wallet. They're scared. I'm not. My ounces are accounted for.

-DoubleEagle

I always drop into the Castle daily as time permits and when I'm home...Have done so for many years and find the hall usually always has a speaker of worth...Many things of value learned from the wise minds who come and go and those who leave this door open to all...A library of wisdom and insight in an atmosphere of patience and generosity...YGM

Personaly I think the Euro will see $1.20/$1.25 and Gold $385.00 before we see the trend reverse again and go the other direction & further than this time around...As I said the Power behind the scenes have their foot on the Accelerator...Next time the Dollar falls it will be hardship for many and Gold will leave others in the dust of complacency....Greenspan opens his mouth @ G-7 and all is well again...Right, why didn't he do so weeks or days before...Plans have time frames and Master Plans have agendas...YGM

As recently as December Greenspan said the dollar was overvalued, the various deficits were going to kill it. He said that. Every analyst and trader and broker and do-gooder said the bottom was going to fall out of the USD.

Everyone on this forum and every other forum applauded Bush's return; it meant more of the same. Now if I have my timing right it was between Christmas and New Years that the DX reversed and now has risen incredibly.

How is that possible? How could EVERYONE be wrong? What is happening? I really, really don't understand.

TIA

In my opinion the Bankers have to take the wind out of Gold's sails before the Dollar can fall further...I fear this time they'll really try to hammer it down good and hard before letting the Dollar go again....Even $350.00 could be their hope...I don't think they'll pull it off, but they are working it down none the less...Quite a delemma trying to devalue the almighty Dollar and supress Gold at the same time....Gives new meaning to Manipulation and Power...Staying w/ some/more physical should be everyones motto...Gold will win and Paper will lose in the end...YGM

Look again at the 5 yr. chart of gold:
It still looks bullish. If that channel
should be broken, the 10 yr. chart has
a beautiful cup and handle and could
support a bullish outlook even with
much more decline in the price.
And if you look up the dollar charts,
this "incredible" reversal since last
December is a mere hiccup.
This wall of worry is just a mirage;
the only thing to worry about a bit is
some draconian measure and that would
only come into play when things deterio-
rate into chaos, I believe. Cheers. OvS

I read the USAGOLD forum 2 or 3 times a day because it helps me to get a better understanding of what is going on. I came to this forum following ANOTHER discovered on another site. I never went back there when I realised the quality of our host,
the quality of the posts, the quality of the posters and the respect they express for each other. I do not post myself because english is my second language and even though I consider myself as functionally bilingual, I lack the ability to find the exact word or nuance often required to express clearly my thoughts. As a former (but still as young as Belgian) CEO of a 10B$+ financial institution with a training in economics, business and finance, I fully share the reading of many here regarding the unique and historic situation of the american dollar and the dangers that lay ahead. I believe that very soon, the price of gold will jump significantly and that will just be the beginning of many assets reevaluation throw out the world. And I beleive that Wednesday, the 15th, it will reach 488.5$ ...

Merlinsen

http://www.usagold.com/gold/special/grp.html

http://www.ecb.int/press/pdf/wfs/2005/fs050204en.pdfGold and gold recievables : minus 81 million euros due to the selling of gold by two Eurosystem Central Banks and a sale of gold coins by another Eurosystem Central Bank (new position 125,477 million euros).

The net foreign currency position remained unchanged at 154,9 billion euros.

The ECB's net foreign currency position (paper) exceeds their gold position by only 23,5%.

http://www.usagold.com/gold/special/NethDucat.html

...President Bush wishes to visit the EU + Russia with an apparant strong dollar and mild oilprices in the background !? This, to make the efforts of a trans-atlantic DIPLOMATIC charm-offensive (?) as complete as possible.

Wouldn't be surprised if some evidence for this would surface in one way or another. Thoughts anyone ?

I read the USAGOLD Forum daily, and completely, because of the excellent quality of the information that I find here. Thank you USA GOLD posters, one and all, and thank you Sir MK, Randy, and all for providing this wonderful forum.

The low guess is because I expect TPTB to hold it down for a bit longer. You may indeed be onto something Sir Belgian (msg#: 129008).

DryWasher.

Thanks.

R.

SHOCKING stupidity, and doublespeak.

Snow not worried about foreign holdings of US debt
Tue Feb 8, 2005 12:27 PM ET
WASHINGTON, Feb 8 (Reuters) - The rising percentage of U.S. debt that is owned by foreigners was not troubling currently, Treasury Secretary John Snow said on Tuesday .
"Not at current levels," Snow answered when asked whether growth in foreign debt owned by foreigners to about 44 percent currently from 30 percent in 2001 was worrisome.

Snow declined to specify what would constitute a worrying level.

"I don't know whether I want to draw a line there and identify any particular level," Snow said. "I don't think it's helpful for me to draw a line and say that anything above that is where the alarm bells go off."

Snow added the United States remained a favored site for foreign investors because it was "the safest, most secure investment in the world" and suggested that would continue.

http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh52103_2005-02-08_17-19-42_l08550549_newsmlBAGHDAD, Feb 8 (Reuters) - Iraq has banked $5 billion dollars in an account with the U.S. Federal Reserve, a move that will boost ties with the rest of the financial world and earn it millions in interest income, a U.S. official said on Tuesday.

U.S. Treasury Under Secretary John Taylor said President George W. Bush had issued an executive order in November granting Iraq the right to open the account with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

He said the dollars have been accumulated by the Iraqis since the creation of the new Iraqi dinar, not sold to them by Washington, and stressed the account was an important symbol of Iraq's re-entry into world finance.

"This enables the central bank to earn income on its reserves, of approximately $5 billion, that will be over $100 million a year. That can be used to improve infrastructure," Taylor told a news conference in Baghdad during a brief visit.

^------(from url)-------^

The big controllers of the game would prefer that you not use and spend the bulk of your monetary resources, but rather hand it back over to them, and then limit yourself to spending only the small interest that is doled back to you.

Please think about this in conjunction with yesterday's post (msg#: 128980).

Don't let yourself be so easily controlled. Choose gold.

R.

Merlinsen (2/8/05; 10:00:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 129004)
===
WOWSERS !!! I see that you "really are" the Son of Merlin the Magician. Let me complement you on your command of "Angrit", as all the Hobbits can "hear you, loud and clear" !
Please honor us often with you postings.
<;-)

Please honor us often with YOUR postings !
GW

http://www.economy.com/home/login/ds_proLogin.asp?script_name=/dismal/pro/article.asp&cid=11925When official reports are dubious, trust your own experience.

Paper, or gold? The choice in mixture is yours.

R.

That yield curve you mentioned yesterday is flattening even more today with the short term rates slightly positive and the 10 and 30 year note yields slightly negative when last I looked. Thanks for keeping an eye on that.
rich

Snow urges action on a undefined plan.

UPDATE 3-Snow urges quick action on Social Security
Tue Feb 8, 2005 02:25 PM ET
(Recasts first 6 paragraphs, adds quotes)
By Glenn Somerville

WASHINGTON, Feb 8 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow on Tuesday urged Congress to move swiftly on overhauling the Social Security system but many lawmakers were skeptical it is verging on crisis as the Bush administration says.

A hearing before the tax-writing U.S. House of Representatives Ways and Means Committee, intended to consider the Bush administration's budget proposals, was dominated by discussion about the White House's wish to amend the government pension plan.

"The sooner you act, the more options are available," Snow said near the end of a three-hour hearing at which several Democratic lawmakers complained they still did not have details of the White House's plan for an overhaul, which would include private savings accounts for younger workers.

http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Daily Gold Market Report has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.

Tuesday Market Excerpts

A recently higher dollar against the euro, coupled with the prospect of the International Monetary Fund selling bullion from its vast reserves for Third World debt relief, have kept pressure on the yellow metal since last week.

"The dollar started out its day firmer and gold was falling on the back of the same old dollar strength," said David Meger, metals analyst at Alaron Trading. "But it was kind of a technical day. As the euro bounced off its low, the gold market got a little bounce off the 200-day moving average," helping it pare its losses, he added.

"Right now sellers are running the show and momentum is definitely down," said a dealer with a large U.S. investment bank. "But we're approaching numbers where there should be good support and if the dollar turns lower we could easily justify buying heavily in gold," he argued.

COMEX April gold eased $1.10 to $414.30, which was the lowest close for benchmark futures since Sept. 27. "The selling is mostly European, and that is inducing some of the funds in the United States to liquidate," said Frank Aburto at F.C. Stone in New York.

Demand for gold from investors and jewelers in key areas like India and China was expected to return as soon as next week to help shore up prices, albeit at possibly lower levels.

Trade has been thinned this week by Lunar New Year holidays in Asia and by Mardi Gras or Carnival in the Americas.

----(see url for full news, 24-hr newswire)---

I read the USAGOLD Forum daily because it helps me prepare for the coming deflation of real money (where prices of things decrease with respect to gold) and the simultaneous inflation of fiat money (where prices increase in dollar terms).

http://www.newratings.com/analyst_news/article_685478.html NEW YORK, February 8 (newratings.com) � Analysts at Canaccord Capital say that the S&P 500 index is likely to decline to at least the 1,020 mark in 2005/06. The possibility of the index declining to the 1,000 level is high.

^------(from url)------^

If the S&P 500 falls under hard times, how well do you think that might bear up the dollar?

Gold need only gain $41, back to its recently visited $450 range, to give entrants at this point 10 percent gains, consistent with the gains in average annual price for the past three years. (see top note at the Daily Market Report)

Meanwhile, how plausible are similar gains in the S&P when Canaccord Capital ip predicting a bear for Wall Street's dearly beloved? Methinks much inflation (depreciation) of the dollar would be needed to bring about any nominal S&P gains. In that process, foreign investors would likely be net liquidators to cut their forex exposure, making any inflationary-based S&P nominal gains that much harder to realize, and consequently heightening the global appeal of gold as an attractive investment alternative.

Call USAGOLD today for a consultation. A prudently diversified portfolio is a must in this economic environment.

R.

I've been out and about visiting old friends lately and thought I would drop in and say hello to USAGOLD. I usually only do this when I have something to say,,,,(and it is obvious that I have not been feeling very verbose lately) so here I am with a missive to deliver. It is in the form of a short letter/essay that I have been sending to various pundits on gold and silver. That's the preamble, and now the meat:
*******
Hello

I am taking the liberty of sending this little essay to you. Please be informed that I have sent it to various writers on precious metals with varying results.
About half actually respond to the points raised, and recently an essay by Rusty McDougall was posted on the GATA web site that covered the same theme. I might add that I have been talking to Rusty for two years about this point of view, and am glad to say that Mr McDougall now looks at these markets differently. Most of the other writers that have responded consider the ideas quite appropriate. Both my brother and I have posted items to Bill Murphy and have been published in 'Midas'. My brother is regularly published there and is known as 'Rhody'. For those of you familiar with GATA, the theme of the essay will not be unfamiliar.
The essay is appended below. Any comments would be welcome.

Best regards,

Galearis
****************
Both my brother and I have talked to many writers about the monetary connection to the gold and silver market and yet most remain blind to how misleading spot/equity price fixations can be. But that (imo) is virtually everyone's blind spot,,,,.

If investors only understood the currency connection, the value/price breakdown to reality would illuminate the flaws in their investment choices and timings.

Let me elaborate. All would see that the rigging of the spot prices serves to bring these in line with currency fluctuations and alignments over the long term,,,,and that, for example with silver, the market has not changed at all except for VOLATILITY. We rather think that looking at the inflation adjusted currency measure of spot prices (and equities) shows the monetary impetus behind these orchestrated price movements that we see now as manipulations. We rather think that the Fed looks at the gold and silver spot price the same way as we do. We rather think that TPTB orchestrating the rises and falls in that market do too.

Please take a minute and think about that.

I do not for one second think that it is too complicated for our metal pundits to start to tell the readership what these spot prices and TRENDS actually mean VALUE-WISE in the so-called big picture.

In other words, TA doesn't work at all except in the short term. It doesn't work in the long term UNLESS the currencies that track the equity unit or commodity unit are a constant value,,,,that there is no inflation - or problems with the USD over the past twenty years or so. These prices most certainly aren't inflation adjusted, never have been, and will be increasingly less so from now on. The long term charts tracking spot prices are useless because the dollars are different sizes. The long term TA charts with their channels drawn on in linear form are fiction. How can they be if one charts a moving object with another moving object?

Ignoring the VALUES of currencies instantly renders using TA an exercise that is fatally flawed. But as everyone seems to be using it,,,,the shortcomings are ignored in an acculturated system of trading. That's pretty serious! And only of value to the people behind the Federal Reserve. TA use simply serves to keep people from noticing currency problems AND is also useful for manipulations of the markets by our monetary institutions.

This is especially noticeable for we Canadians - where the so-called bull markets in gold and silver are even LESS apparent than in the US. We HAVE to look at value,,,and we DO see that gold has been a terrible investment for us. We also bought silver two years ago and in quantity. It is worth LESS now than then. We bought it at USD$4.67. IN USD terms! Do the math. It is cheaper now in inflation adjusted terms than at its lows more than two years ago - even in USD. At its highs it is barely above its average spot price over the past ten years - $5.00. One can do the same exercise with gold.

Everyone is getting royally snookered by keeping their focus on price, and the people may actually think we do have prosperity right along with bread lines if they attend themselves religiously with this focus. In the 1930s the media and those still working called the unemployed hungry lazy and shiftless. I think we will see that again.

Use TA? Nope. Never.

We see the game the Fed etc are playing when they manipulate the market. Where's the bull in the precious metals?

We time our metal buys using the real value method. It is the only way to time buys according to value. It will be a factor too (plus the gold/silver ratio and our own currency VALUE- we have internal inflation just like you folks do.) for timing of the selling. If they get silver down to $6.00 again, I am buying physical hand over fist. That would make silver cheaper in value than EVER.

We DO use TA, however, to monitor what we think the rest of the world will DO,,,,, to the markets.

Our particular method is probably the only realistic way to do this,,,and it sure doesn't require a lot of chart-hopping, hard drive space and expensive add-on services from the internet.

How difficult is it to find the short term value? Since year 2000 when the USD was at 120�it is today (for example) at 84.4 (Feb.6. 05). That means valuing the USD compared to year 2000: 84.4/120=.703 X POG of $415=$291.80. So where's the bull? Note that this figure is just using Forex data,,,,without any additional inflation factored in since year 2000. We maintain that if this is a gold bull market, then it is a mighty poor one when one considers purchasing power of the USD at present. We maintain, even with our using CPI data, as the inflation guage, or the 2.75 fold fall in the USD since 1980 as crude guides, that we have a better understanding of value in the price mechanism than do those focused on spot prices alone.

Please note that when the USD was last at 80 on the Forex, it was still "worth" a great deal more than a modern USD at 80.

Please think about that for a minute.

We also feel that the equities markets would be viewed in an entirely less favourable light than they are at present if USD decline (even on the Forex exchange) was factored into so-called profits. We rather feel that the gold and silver markets would be looked upon in much the same way....and that ultimately the judgement of investors would lead to a conclusion that all these markets are manipulated and that the precious metals are a better investment given the environment where they function. At least the metals have not lost their hedge function.

Best regards, and since I haven't said so recently,,,,you do stellar work on behalf of we metalbugs.

Galearis
*******

There you have it. Discuss or dismiss; it's (almost)(still) a free country.

Best regards,

G.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/kosares020405.html
Druid: YEAH! I think the BIS is putting pressure on some entity or country to come up with some of the shiny or be prepared for a much higher price. Take the pain by either giving up the metal or face a higher price. If I'm not mistaken, I think it was FOA who suggested that a major sign along the trail would be that the Europe faction would eventually separate from the IMF over policy issues. Could this be the beginning of such a dissolution?

A GREAT read by two of our GIANTS. Hopefully, this (our) perspective will start to flourish and gain momentum against the backdrop of typical gold analysis and commentary that you read on other gold sites.

by Michael J. Kosares

I don't completely understand this obsession Gordon Brown has with the IMF gold. Why does he always target gold in his third world debt schemes? He could just as easily call for a multi-nation bond issue or simply ask the various nations for a U.S. Treasuries donation to cover the third world debt.

I'm sorry, but I don't believe for a minute that the chancellor of the exchequer is motivated solely by his concern for Third World indebtedness. I think we all remember that the last time Brown stumped for IMF gold sales, he failed. The IMF opted for revaluation. The result was that the Bank of England let go of a good portion of the British people's gold reserve at cycle low prices. Now Brown is at it again.

What is really behind all this volley and thunder?

In my view Brown's activity now signals the same thing it signaled in 1999 -- the beginning of a major move upward in the gold price.

We should consider one of three possible scenarios:

1. One or more bullion banks are in trouble in London and gold must be found for the British government and central bank to fulfill as lender of last resort. (Brown is simply trying to get ahead of the curve.)

Or:

2. This is just another campaign (ala the Andy Smith scenario) in a larger war to keep the bullion banks supplied with enough metal to satisfy the needs of the huge gold carry trade (which goes on longer than I ever anticipated it would) and keep it from going bankrupt.

Or:

3. A combination of 1 and 2, in which case Brown sees himself as killing two birds with one stone.

Brown's hope in my view is that he can steamroll gold sales. The talk about revaluation is just camouflage. Many have claimed with some degree of justification that the Bank of England's sales were directed inventory placements -- not sales per se but bailouts camouflaged as sales. Further adding to the mystery surrounding those sales are unanswered questions as to why the Bank of England did not sign the most recent Central Bank Gold Accord in March, 2004.

In a long talk with the USAGOLD sitemaster, Randy Strauss, this afternoon on this subject, he pointed out to me that other members of the IMF might be very happy to receive their gold back in a restitution sales scheme, considering the gold to be of not much use to them sitting at the IMF. Still other members might get it back and be persuaded to sell. Seemingly this is the gold that Brown hopes will end up in the sales and leasing pool.

As a follow-up to the 1999 Central Bank Gold Agreement which did include the UK, the following Agreement was signed March 2004 by all the leading European central banks except the Bank of England:

"In the interest of clarifying their intentions with respect to their gold holdings, the undersigned institutions make the following statement:

1. Gold will remain an important element of global monetary reserves.

2. The gold sales already decided and to be decided by the undersigned institutions will be achieved through a concerted programme of sales over a period of five years, starting on 27 September 2004, just after the end of the previous agreement. Annual sales will not exceed 500 tons and total sales over this period will not exceed 2,500 tons.

3. Over this period, the signatories to this agreement have agreed that the total amount of their gold leasings and the total amount of their use of gold futures and options will not exceed the amounts prevailing at the date of the signature of the previous agreement.

4. This agreement will be reviewed after five years."

At the time the agreement was penned, UK stated that its justification for not signing this time was that it currently had no plans to sell gold. That excuse doesn't wash because most signatories in the first agreement were not sellers, either. Apparently the United Kingdom wanted some extra wiggle room with respect item #3 -- particularly leasing operations, and that could be the reason why they didn't sign.

As for the London Bullion Market Association, I would not be surprised if this was nothing more than a machination to free up gold to meet the demand requirements being faced by the bullion banks.

This is not meant to be a comprehensive analysis of Brown's recurring obsession with the IMF gold but simply some groundwork to encourage discussion.

I would like to repeat a brilliant statement from the UK's Sir Henry Tapsell, which I have posted here before as well as in our newsletters and in my book, "The ABCs of Gold Investing":

"The whole point about gold, and the quality that makes it so special and almost mystical in its appeal, is that it is universal, eternal, and almost indestructible. The minister will agree that it is also beautiful. The most enduring brand slogan of all time is: 'As good as gold.' The scientists can clone sheep and may soon be able to clone humans but they are still a long way from being able to clone gold, although they have been trying to do so for 10,000 years.

"The chancellor may think that he has discovered a new Labour version of the alchemist's stone, but his dollars, yen, and euros will not always glitter in a storm, and they will never be mistaken for gold."

Tapsell made that statement in 1999, just before the Bank of England let go of Britain's gold at cyclically low prices ($250 to $300). My question is: What happens if Brown runs into a wall this time? What if the verdict is no sales, no revaluation. Then where will the price of gold go?

By the way, the chancellor Tapsell referred to was Gordon Brown.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/kosares020405.html
Druid: My apologies TC.


By Randy Strauss


Sales, Revaluations, and the Disposition of IMF Gold
By Randy Strauss

The last time British Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown seriously agitated for IMF gold sales under the banner of debt relief for poor countries was in the early spring of the eventful year of 1999.

When IMF sales were not forthcoming, suddenly the UK itself announced that summer that it would be a gold seller. I don't recall that a direct correlation was trumpeted at that time between those sales and debt relief, so I was always left with a suspicion that a London-centered bullion banking lifeboat operation was more than likely the hushed motivation behind it all.

Those few prestigious London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) banking institutions of the City of London are, after all, perhaps the only banking operations still vulnerable to an actual bank run. Dealing in bullion, they are unlike commercial banks in the sense that they do not have similar recourse to an inexhaustible lender of last resort, and therefore must go begging for any manner of help such as they may find in times of shortage. In response to a liquidity squeeze a central bank can provide paper without limit to regular banks to preserve solvency, whereas the provision of gold deposits to bullion banks are ultimately curbed by physical limits and may come up too short to win the day.

As those surprise UK sales swept the gold market to 20-year lows in mid-1999, it was significant to see the European central banks rally together and respond quickly with their market-supportive Central Bank Gold Agreement by the end of summer.

Interestingly, by the end of the year the IMF finally gave a nod to Brown's earlier notion of debt relief, but the IMF did it through off-market gold revaluations, thus setting a bit of precedent and keeping the book closed on actual sales that would have drawn down IMF physical gold reserves.

With Brown agitating again for IMF gold operations (sales or revaluations) under the banner of debt relief six years after his initial appeal, one has to wonder: Is he truly the world's leading humanitarian, or is there another angle?

If debt relief is the legitimate reason for the clamor, 1999 precedent suggests that revaluation would be the more likely course of policy action.

But if we see what seems to me to be the less likely event -- if actual sales of IMF gold are selected by the necessary 85 percent majority of IMF voting power -- I would tend to interpret it as a sign that various IMF members (e.g., France, Germany, and others) are simply wanting their gold back. This precedent of behavior was last seen in the mechanism of the restitution sales of the late 1970s when several member countries bought back some of their original gold deposits from the IMF.

With the Chancellor's drive clearly suggesting gold sales as an alternative to the established precedent of IMF gold revaluation, and having so recently sold half of the gold of Her Majesty's Treasury, the UK itself may figure prominently among the countries that would like their gold back. This is especially true if the Bank of England anticipates that future lifeboat and liquidity operations may be necessary as the LBMA's business heads toward mothballs, a phenomenon which is legitimately suggested by ever-shrinking clearing volumes demonstrated over the past eight years.

Publicly reported clearing turnover in London-centered bullion banking operations during that span of time has been withering. From average daily levels exceeding 1,200 tonnes of gold cleared per day it has fallen to less than 500 tonnes per day in present business. Typically banks rely on growth (inflation) to ensure liquidity and solvency, and yet here we see this unique sector of banking is staring into a very real and formidable contraction. One wonders what their various gold depositors might now be thinking.

Viewed from that angle, the two new gold Exchange Traded Funds introduced on the New York and American stock exchanges may be just part of a long train of devices to preserve institutional liquidity, as they are always uniquely vulnerable to demands for physical deposits and consequences of insolvency.

Saudi Arabia will drastically increase oil output and N. Irak (Kirkuk) is exporting oil again ??? ST and LT IRs act as to indicate recession ??? Dow and dollar-index stopped to diverge and all of a sudden rise in tandem ??? And Snow almost suggested that the dollar is as good (safer/safer) as gold...
Cisco's figures "must" produce a positive reaction . And the media already picture a new era of peace in Israel. And Madame Condoleeza goes shopping in Paris.
Nice feel good show ! Message to the entire world : THE DOLLAR IS BACK ! Do we know better, dearest fellow forumers ?

What were the answers (reactions) on your conclusion ? Please, let us know.
Bedtime for me.

Thanks for the chart but can we also please have some explanations to go with it?
What is that line at $412.77?
Also, what am I looking for to compare to 1/03?

I'm sure what I'm missing is obvious to most but I'd rather ask a simple question than miss something.
Thanks
rich

Make that $412.58.

Blue horizontal line represents the present market price, expressed as $/oz on the left and $/kilo on the right.

Comparison with the 1/2003 region of the graph provides a historical reference for a degree of price retracement from highs to support within a rising channel that could be viewed as no cause for alarm and very likely a particularly opportune entry or expansion point.

R.

Orlandini's charts for gold in his essay tell the real story - At least vs the US $ - Hoping not to get the flac here it is to be found ...

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/dospassos.cfm?cfid=1539881&cftoken=18932738πd=4414

... You've got to love the comparison of s.t. daily to smoothed out longer term monthly graphs. Love my handle on the cup!

Or in your example, perhaps just the opposite ? I concur completely with your thoughts, knowing all too well that many fail to take into account the many facets of "pricing" or "profits" where the PMs (or other investments) are concerned...... exchange rates, inflation, time-value (lost/forfeited interest), etc. Just eyeballing the elephants in this multi-ring circus can be a big mistake indeed. Best watch the clowns on the sidelines as well. Considering "price" alone is proof in itself that many continue to fall into the same old fiat trap, PMs or no PMs. With PM dollar values up 50% (just as an example), we've gained nothing if those same dollars (DX) are down the same 50% vs. other currencies, inflation, taxes on gains, and other "opportunity costs". It takes "realization" and consideration of a whole plethoria of factors to come to the obvious conclusion that a "bull market" is not always what it appears on the face of things. As with all things, "bull or bear" is always a relative term, regardless of the direction of the markets......bullish for me, bearish for you......even though we stew in the same pot.

Thank you, gentlemen.

Hello to Galearis and Kilo. Glad to hear from both of you! Hopefully, we'll hear from you more often.

Galearis, anything new in the realm of silver supply and demand? How is it that China can so desparately need tin, copper, cement powder, oil, soybeans, iron ore, etc. and yet not need enough more silver to the point where they need to import...not export..silver?? They must be consuming more + more silver in that expanding economy, no?
rich

I read this forum almost daily now, having just completed the ANOTHER archives (major head pain) and am still working through FOA (Archive II)(slightly easier to understand, but mind numbing nonetheless)....

The knowledge expressed here keeps me in humble silence, because I realize that what I thought I KNEW, is either suspect at best, or wouldn't make a pimple on the arse of most posters here. My questions now overwhelm my answers.
Please keep it coming!!

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ A "PRICE of GOLD" GUESSING CONTEST!! $$$$$$$$$$$$

Entries as of Wednesday 2/9/05 at 00:01 Denver Time
===

$$$$ $488.5 $$$$ Merlinsen (2/8/05; 10:00:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 129004)

$$$$ $454.7 $$$$ Moegold (2/8/05; 14:03:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 129019)

$$$$ $432.0 $$$$ spikedog (02/04/05; 22:50:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 128898)

$$$$ $429.9 $$$$ Gandalf the White (02/04/05; 11:27:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 128871)

$$$$ $426.5 $$$$ Sundeck (02/04/05; 17:10:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 128888)

$$$$ $426.0 $$$$ Topaz (02/04/05; 16:52:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 128886)

$$$$ $424.2 $$$$ lifer (02/04/05; 15:22:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 128883)

$$$$ $422.3 $$$$ slingshot (02/04/05; 15:35:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 128885)

$$$$ $415.9 $$$$ Smeagol (02/05/05; 15:44:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 128925)

$$$$ $409.0 $$$$ YGM (02/08/05; 04:06:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 128999)

$$$$ $407.1 $$$$ 2023 (2/6/05; 23:18:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 128961)

$$$$ $405.6 $$$$ Chally (2/8/05; 23:34:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 129034)

$$$$ $400.0 $$$$ DryWasher (2/8/05; 10:57:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 129009)

$$$$ $398.0 $$$$ DoubleEagle (02/08/05; 01:09:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 128998)
---

We shall have a price guessing contest on the closing (Settlement price) of gold for the April COMEX contract (GCJ05) on Wednesday, February 16, 2005, ---BUT all entries must be posted to the TableRound before Midnight on Sunday, February 13th.

The "Price of Gold" (POG) Contest winner -- the person with the closest price guess to the actual Settlement Price -- will receive a nineteenth Century 20 Lira Italian Umberto I coin, (which may be seen at the following LINK).
http://www.usagold.com/gold/coins/ItalyUmb.html
These coins were Minted between 1880 - 1897 with a Fineness of 0.900, which therefore contains an "Actual Gold Content" of 0.1867 net fine troy ounces of pure GOLD !

There will be also be two runners-up prizes for the next closest prognostications --- each winning an one ounce U.S. Silver Eagle.

THE RULES -- (We MUST have RULES !!) --- PLEASE READ !!

1) The Winner is the poster with the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX (most active) April 2005 Gold Contract (GCJ05) on the date of Wednesday, February 16, 2005.

3) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $421.0)

4) "Guesses" shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT BOX location AND enclosed in markers of "Dollar Signs" so as to be OFFICIAL !
(Such as $$$$$ $421.0 $$$$$$$ )

5) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! "FIRST COME" has rights to that "Guess".

6) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes MIDNIGHT (24:00) on Sunday, February 13, 2005.

7) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY--- (as this part MUST accompany the Price prognostication)
--- In order for your entry to be valid, entries will be REQUIRED to answer the DIFFICULT and controversial subject by "Determining and COMPLETING the following statement": <;-)

I read the USAGOLD Forum ( how often? ) because ------ (in 25 words or more!).

--
LET the CONTEST continue !
===
"COME ON IN" all you Lurkers ! Now is the time to get your Posting Code from the TownCrier at the Link at the top of this PAGE !
<;-)

I read the USAGOLD Forum 3 or 4 times a week because my search for the truth is never ending. I have lurked on this site for 1 year now. I find the messages enlightening. I find the posters talented and knowledgeable. I find the links that provide the truth or rebuttals to pulp fiction that others would have us believe. I find the archives of treasured posters who have provided direction and food for thought. ANOTHER and FOA come to mind. Some say I am a goldbug. I believe that I have a genetic predisposition to gold from an event in the distant past in the family tree. I enjoy the commentary from around the world, on this site, and wish that more would come aboard and provide their thoughts and news from distant lands. I may not have access to meaningful news to post but I guarantee that I will always be lurking!

http://www.futuresource.com/charts/micro.jsp?s=GC1%21&s=DX1%21&s=TYXY&s=CL1%21&s=&s=&s=&s=&p=D&v=15&b=LINE&d=LOWIf this DX wants to hold 85 it'll need some help from Yields (UP) ...and it's not getting it!
Oil is now a drag on 'ol Buck and those SM's "really" need to get a wriggle on.

Lots of confluence/confirmation isn't happening at this point so DX could re-test 80 as early as next week.

BUGGER!

http://www.energybulletin.net/4281.htmlSNIPS :
"Few commentators have recognized the significance of OPEC's January 30 decision to temporarily suspend their price band mechanism. If the suspension is indeed temporary, it may not be that important. If it isn't, there are some interesting parallels to the suspension of the U.S. gold standard in 1968 to 1971."

"Viewed from a different angle, an oil price ceiling is a dollar floor."
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Wow, this is one of the first articles I read that recognizes the fact that OPEC can determine "the price of the dollar in oil-terms", and links the gold-dollar-oil relationship !

http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20050207-mon.html#anchor0In his book "What does Mr. Greenspan really think ?", Larry Parks made the observation that the Maestro often speaks with much greater candor when he is outside the US. (The book dissects a speech given in Leuven, Belgium) This time it's Steven Roach doing the dissecting.

Snip -
'"At long last, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan has owned up to the central role he has played in sparking unprecedented global imbalances. His confession came in the form of a speech innocuously entitled, "Current Account" that was given in London at the Advancing Enterprise 2005 Conference on the eve of the 5 February G-7 meeting. In the narrow world of econo-speak, his prepared text contains the functional equivalent of a "smoking gun."'

He concludes -

'The Federal Reserve is trapped in a moral-hazard dilemma of its own making. It dates back to the Great Bubble of the late 1990s and the central bank's unwillingness to take away the proverbial punch bowl just when the party was getting good. The close brush with deflation that then ensued was a painfully classic post-bubble aftershock. That experience underscores the greatest shortcoming of modern-day central banking -- the inability of monetary policy to cope successfully with asset bubbles and the deflationary perils they engender. The history of the 1930s and Japan in the 1990s are grim reminders of that shortcoming. Alan Greenspan's confession finally sets the record straight on how he got us into this mess. But it is a confession that is still steeped in denial. The presumption that natural market forces can cure all ignores the lingering perils of an all-too treacherous endgame. Let's not forget that nearly five years after the equity bubble popped, America's imbalances -- to say nothing of the world's imbalances -- remain in uncharted territory.'

C! It's sure curious how every slight nuance of what he says in the US is used by the CNBC et al. to explain why the market jumps or twitches on a particular day, yet completely ignores fairly plain speaking like this. It must be nice to be the almighty Ruler of the Universe in your own country, while simultaneously being able to protect your behind outside of it. If something brown hits the ventilation, he can always point to the transcript and say ,"Heck, don't say I never told you !" Of course, he has probably made so many speeches, over so many years, on so many topics from so many angles, that he probably can save his butt from 360 degree attack ! Remember his gold article from '66 ?

C!

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/images/orlandini020805b.gifYou must have a fine nose as to serve this forum with all these great articles ! Dollar-oil-gold AND euro...is all it is about ! The article provides the clue as to understand why the prices are doing as the do.

Last night, the ceo of BP, wasn't excluding the possibility that oilprices could fall back to $20 pb. BP, is the (in)famous oil-company that had to review its oilreserves downwards, for the third time in a row !!! >>> Planting stories and manufacture the reality !!!

So don't be surprised that the "real story" will slowly but surely, surface (cfr. your article).
Watch the 20 yrs $-POG chart (see link-Norcini) and conclude that not only oil but gold also has clearly signaled that the former $-standard-range is to become history. It is oil and gold that say how they value the dollar's utility. The euro continues to make itself up as to invite oil and gold to have a look at it (the euro) and suggest : can I, the euro, come into consideration of being "valued" by you (oil + gold) ? That's what is meant by the political styling of a fiat currency.

Follow the debates on ARTE/France 3(Christine Ockrent)/WDR 2 (Sabine Christiansen). EMU and what has to grow out of it.
Time consuming but provides you insights into the approaching future. Gives you also a better idea of "how" the EU (and EMU) is discretely evolving.

IMVHO, it is a mistake to continue viewing gold as a speculation (gamble) for the short term. Your article is a piece of the evidence that gold is heading for a dramatic change. Just like oil is entering a new era. The existing dollar complacency will be shattered into pieces, whether we like it...find it convenient... or not.

Many articles, like the one you posted, indicate that the timing of the change is coming closer. And the closer we are getting to that moment of very visible (experienced) change...the more efforts, to hide the change, are being produced.
cfr. the repeated bounce of the USDX on the 80 maginot line.
Idem dito for the IRs smoke and mirrors. And of course the growing stash of outside US dollar(reserves) cfr. Snow's latest remarks on these dollar stashes (unalarming level).
The absurd over-valuations of all things dollar (currency exch. rate, bonds, stocks) cannot be fed to the whole world ad infinitum. Oil and gold (the price trends and behavior)are still saying so ! When long term trends are broken, the change has started. Oil has broken its former ceiling, thus the dollar will break its former bottom (USDX-80). Gold signaled that it is rattling its chains. Can we confidently conclude that one should position oneself for the long term, and leave old trading habits for what they once were !?

I read the USA gold forum because I enjoy the witty repartee of my cyberfriends. Where else could I access developing global perspective on issues related to gold that are more candid and delivered in such a palatable format as the writings of the knights and ladies of the acclaimed round table. Yes, I consider all of you my friends and hope to meet you some day.

Greenspan is not only responsible for the dollar's management inside the US (US-economy), but also for the dollar as the globe's trading and reserve currency !!!
His monetary policies "must" permanently serve "two" purposes : America and the rest of the globe !!! What a conflicting dilemma...one and the same dollar for two different (differing) blocks. (With us($) or against us($) ?)

Isn't the above the real reason why things cannot be solved for the US AND the rest of the world AT THE SAME TIME...in the same way...with the same policies !? This impossible situation will result in a general atmosphere of increasing impatience and nervousness. Cfr. the growing impact of the Asian effects. (A. Greenspan in Frankfurt)

Isn't the above reality (impatience-nervousness) contributing to getting closer and closer to drastic measures that will introduce the "change" in monetary (global economic) affairs ?

The amalgame of the US$ for America and the US$ for the world is certainly causing a lot of confusion for the common observers. I think that the world will go with Sir Alan for as long as possible and without Alan's $-policies (management) as soon as it is needed (more convenient)!

Think that we will arrive at a point where the US wishes to put its own house in order, without the burden of having to keep managing the dollar in function of the whole world.
A US$ for the US and let the rest of the world sort it out for itself ? A massive flight out of the dollar, into gold... !?

OK, OK, now that I have your attention, let me explain.

Metals have two zones of behavior under strain (where strain is defined as a force intended to stretch it). The first is elasticity, where the extension under strain is more or less linear with the applied force. Removal of that force will allow the metal to resume its initial form. But apply a force past a given limit, and the metal will become ductile i.e. will stretch. If the force is removed, the metal will not spring back - its internal structure has been irrevocably changed. The most interesting part is that if the force is kept constant past the point of ductility, the metal will continue to stretch, getting longer and longer, becoming thinner and thinner until finally it snaps.

At the forum, many suspect that the figure of USDX of 0.80 is a critical level of support. Is it also the limit of ductility, below which it will continue to descend unchecked until it breaks ? And if the triple deficits are lessened, will it remain under that limit quasi-permanently ?

C!

With us($) or against us($) ? LOL - nice play on words !
C!

Hello Belgium,
Thank you for your comments.

I do not feel comfortable in telling who of the various writers on the subject responded to the value pricing theme, but I will say that they are very well known proponents of TA who regularly publish copiously and with very pretty graphical content on their areas of interest. About half (as stated) responded to either my comments or similar ones from Rhody. All were favourable and all admitted that they had neglected to consider this line of reasoning. At least one now mentions the "possibly manipulated silver market" in his commentary on the precious metals markets.

I do give full marks for these folks making these positive statements because in a sense looking at pricing with the inflation/dollar shrink factored in is a disincentive for investment. Especially in equities. The DOW "valued" as if it were hanging around the 7000 level is not a sales promotion, yes? Also most have "invested" their whole modis operandi into TA interpretation and have been publishing this stuff for years. I applaud them for even THINKING about looking at it critically!

And it is really interesting that the people who invented this TA system got a Nobel prize for the effort,,,,and also ironic that while it advances the art of tracking a market in one sense, it adds a layer of armour against those same participants actually seeing markets in a more meaningful way.

The Federal Reserve must be laughing at least a little. What a coup for them to be assured that currency problems are not factored into investment decisions. By virtually everyone!

Best regards,

G.

http://www.usagold.com/buy-gold-coins.html

Hello Rich and Kilo,

Kilo:
Thanks for your comments. I rather get the impression that FOA actually understood this theme very well. I remember him saying that "'they� would keep the DOW at around 10,000 to 10,500 for a very long time"�One wonders if they can do it when the USD is worth $0.03. One only wonders if the rest of the G-7 will comprehend their situation in the same way then as an Argentinian (for example) did recently. (Smile)

Rich:

Good chatting with you again.
I can't say that there is any firm news on the silver supply and demand situation, but the I can safely say that there is much less silver around now than during my last stay at the castle. Anecdotally, the volatility in the paper market is strongly implying stresses and worry � in spite of the recent disciplinary assault on POS using leased silver supplies. That they do this at the new bottom ($4.63 in year 2000 dollars) also implies worry in the ranks. That they do this at this juncture in order to drive the price lower (it did not work all that well) implies a need to synchronize with spot gold movements � to give the markets some credibility methinks�

I have ceased to think of the gold and silver markets as equity plays,,,,(as they surely are for many of the cabal linked commercial interests),,,,but rather, like gold, the "direction" is mostly meant to keep investment attention clear of them,,,, That IMO is monetary worry. I also think that the Federal Reserve interests "partnered by convenience" with the SUA that started with Kennedy in the early �60s to set up silver supplies in the US to be exploited for price suppression has evolved to the point that it is a scandal waiting to happen. The COMEX over the past 40 years has been saddled with so much mismanagement that �they� are trapped in a perpetual cover-up/manipulation that the CFTC is unable to address. It has simply gone to far. They let the paper markets get out of control in similar manner to how ANOTHER saw the LBMA getting out of control. The same sort of "mess" is involved.

Note, I am giving a more apologistic interpretation to the COMEX mess than is even likely the case�.Time will tell. (Smile)

So I disagree with Ted Butler in that I think COMEX must die. And that's what it boils down to. When leasing ends, so does COMEX. Then silver AND gold will fly. It is impossible to guess how long this will take.

Which brings us to China. Firstly, it is only a supposition that the leased silver is coming from China. It is likely the case, as China was the last country to go off the silver standard,,,,or to cease to use silver money,,,,and that too was due to meddling/manipulation by the United States (I seem to recollect). At any rate, they would have the silver to lease,,,,for a time.

Why? IMO it is simply what they see as the cost to doing business. If silver blows up due to lack of leased metal supplies, then gold blows up. That takes the USD down, and there goes their economy. Although it doesn't make sense on the surface for the Chinese to get rid of their precious silver supplies in order to suppress the price,,,, the economic gain of a booming economy would seem to trump most other concerns. The price of employment internally would seem to be the sacrifice of their remaining silver supplies. If their economy implodes because of the collapse of the US as a trade partner, they (probably) feel that THAT cost is higher than the silver that they can hope to mine in a self-sustaining quantity in the future. But if their economy implodes, they won't need that silver as much anyway.. China is a major silver producer (4th, I think) so the silver will be there for them down the road. They surely hope.

This makes as much sense to me as Japan buying US debt in order for it to be worth something to trade for with the US,,,,You see?

At least that's my take on the situation. If something doesn't make sense,,,,then there must be politics behind it.

Best regards, and of course, FWIW.

G.

http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh62245_2005-02-09_07-45-33_t357016_newsmlHEADLINE: Forex market perhaps misled by Greenspan

TOKYO, Feb 9 (Reuters) - Noted Federal Reserve watcher John Berry said in a column ... carried by Bloomberg that the market was "perhaps misled by the seemingly hopeful tone of Greenspan's remarks" and that the Fed chief listed "several major reasons why the U.S. trade deficit isn't likely to shrink anytime soon."

Berry said of Greenspan's speech that the market "should have listened more closely to all his carefully worded caveats", and added that Greenspan's suggestions of why the trade and current account balance may improve were "highly problematic."

Greenspan's speech surprised analysts because the Fed chairman just a few months earlier had expressed concern about the willingness of foreigners to finance U.S. deficits.

^-----(from url)------^

I guess it will always be true that markets tend to see only what they want to see, and are further limited by what they are able to understand.

R.

http://www.iii.co.uk/news/?type=afxnews&articleid=5207230⊂ject=economic∾tion=articleFRANKFURT (AFX) - European Central Bank chief economist Otmar Issing said
monetary policy has a role to play in preventing asset price bubbles.

He said it should not be overlooked that the most exceptional increases in
prices for stocks and real estate in history were accompanied by strong
expansions in money and/or credit growth.

"We have learned on many occasions that excess liquidity can show up in
excessive asset valuations and not only in consumer price inflation," he wrote.

Sooner or later, unsustainable asset price rises may translate into sizeable
risks to price stability -- in either direction.

"To my mind, the risks associated with asset price inflation and subsequent
deflation are an important additional reason for paying close attention to money
and credit, over and above the regular and well-established link between money
and consumer prices," Issing wrote.

Central banks have to react to asset price bubbles before they burst, not
afterwards, ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet said.

^------(from url)-----^

Ever careful not to offer direct critique of the U.S. situation or policy, the European monetary officials nonetheless effectively do it obliquely by expressing due concern over elements of their own situation which are often tame as compared to the U.S. situation.

I guess they figure we can easily enough make the associations and do the math.

But then again, markets tend to see only what they want to see, and are limited by what they are able to understand.

Choose gold -- easy to understand, safe to have around.

R.

Thanks, you are welcome.

I AM A LURKER - YOUR CONTEST GOT ME OUT OF THE CLOSET. THE BOTTOM LINE IS ALL FIAT CURRENCY EVENTUALY SELF DESTRUCTS. BONDS ARE GUARANDEED INSTRUMENTS OF CONFISCATION BECAUSE OF INFLATION. I JUST TALKED TO AN OLDTIMER HE REMEMBERS GOING TO THE MOVIE FOR TEN CENTS I THINK ITS HITTING 10 BUCKS NOW. SO MUCH FOR THE PURCHASING POWER OF THE DOLLAR.

Below 80 = uncharted territory. Means, that anything can happen...most probably something that never happened before.
Like...no way to possibly hope for any $-recovery. A softer dollar in exchange rate AND purchasing power as well ! Read hyper-price-inflation with irreversible consequences >>> loss of reserve status.
Cfr. The pound sterling !

Watching the screen now : All of a sudden the $-POO shot up 1,2 %, then the dollar exch. rate rise lost steam and declined. Then the $-POO went back down again and stopped at its original level. Note that it is not the other way around (declining dollar causing POO to rise). Oil is pricing the dollar !!!
One day, gold will do the same job : Buy goldmetal >>> POG rises >>> dollar declines.

Clink : Once the USDX goes below 80, its former reputation will get a serious blow. I strongly doubt that it will change much on the deficits. The pound (Sterling empire and all empires before it) never recovered from its losses, either. There are indeed points of no return as you pictured with the metal story in your post. This is much more obvious for those outside the dollar-bowl than for the ones in it.

Greenspan can still count on some cooperation from those who "use" the dollar as to let things happen "orderly". On this particular aspect, Greenspan has his merits. He is the master of the financial orchestra for as long as all players wish to keep playing the dollar song.

Don't forget that the entire globe has been brought (maneuvered) under a constant increasing level of tensions, right after 9/11 !!! We often seem to forget that this event was the start of a dramatic process of multiple changes with no end in sight. This is also weighting heavely on the (world)dollar. Did you hear H. Kissinger on Iran !? Are you watching CNN getting us prepared for the inevitable !? Frighthening, no ?

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/GA27Dj01.html(Jan 27, 2005) WASHINGTON - Central banks around the world are getting rid of the US dollar in favor of the euro in a bid to stem losses from the declining greenback, an international survey reveals. The survey says that more than two-thirds of central banks have increased their exposure to the euro in the past two years, mainly at the expense of the dollar.

Titled "Management Trends 2005", the report was published by the London-based Central Banking Publications Ltd. It surveyed 65 central bank reserve managers who control reserve assets worth $1.7 trillion, between September and December 2004.

Some economists have predicted a stampede away from the dollar and to the euro.

The oft-heard suggestion, which many appear to support, is that the drop could erode the dollar's 60-year role as the world's reserve currency.

The report, released on Monday, is the first concrete evidence that major central banks are indeed taking that step.

"It's a smart move on their part to move not just to the euro, they can also buy the yen. They can even buy gold or move to a whole mix of assets to get away from the dollar, which is overvalued," said Mark Weisbrot, co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research in Washington.

"It's going to have to fall eventually. The question is when."

Late last year, finance ministers from the oil-rich Persian Gulf region had said they might move to the euro. This month, the Saudi central bank governor predicted that the euro would play a greater role in global reserves in future.

"Diversification from dollar-denominated to euro-denominated assets appears to be taking place more rapidly than had been anticipated two years ago," the survey said.

[Randy note: and now we know more clearly why in a public statement ECB's president Trichet recently warned peers not to "rush" into euro reserves...]

... the fall could quickly turn into a major plunge if panic spreads among private investors and moves on to infect central banks, some economists say.

ON THIN ICE

Weisbrot said, "China and Japan for example, either one of those, can cause a complete crash, a total collapse of the dollar just by selling a small portion of their reserves. In fact, probably they won't have to sell their reserves, all they have to do is stop accumulating or slow down their rate of accumulation and it will be a dollar crash."

^------(from url)------^

When you see that your dollar's fate is not in your own hands to decide, choose gold.

Rather than fundamentals (which, to be sure, are already well past their due to deliver the warranted dollar adjustment) it is surely politics alone that we now await to induce the delivery.

And given the generally unwanted disruptive effect that CB dollar-selling activity would precipitate, in keeping with the political premise just mentioned, it is more likely that to a large extent the dollars will be dutifully held and the losses absorbed in the name of iinternational economic stability. And to help the central banks mitigate (offset) their losses of reserves on the balance sheet, their very small vaults of gold will consequently grow very large in VALUE.

R.

They all know very well that the dollar is (virtually) being backed by an "organized" ASSET ECONOMY, resulting in the collective dream of benign wealth-effects. This asset-economy was needed to expand on DEBT and nothing but debt !

One cannot go on for ever with increasing the "asset" part of the economy as to cover indefinitely the increasing debt that must drive the whole system. This dollar-system cannot expect the whole world to keep accepting this impossible concept. More and more debt, piled upon debt. (read Clink's post).
----
The euro's decline seems (!) to be halted (1,2815) thanks to the blitz rise (and fall back) of the POO !?
This continued oilprice volatility is definitely a new given !!!

I read the USAGOLD Forum every day I log on to the computer
because there are posters on this bulliten board who have
forgotten more about gold and silver than I have ever learned. I'm am not well knowledged about the U.S. government treasery department, foreign exchange markets, policies concerning mining, or even Alan Greenspans Magical Market Manipulations (MMM or make more money), but I'm sure there are people on this board who are well knowledged on the subjects. Read and Learn!

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/GB10Dj01.htmlThe base for this situation is, in particular, world demand growth ... and reason why demand is growing faster than in the 1990s, is unstoppable growth of all forms of commercial energy demand by very fast-growing economies, including China, India, Brazil, Pakistan, Iran and Turkey.

In addition, the type and nature of economic growth at the world level, also including the older, slower-growth OECD economies, has become more oil-intensive. This is reflected in the US (taking about 26% of world oil output) by consistent and large oil demand growth coming out of the 2001-02 recession in what has essentially been a "jobless recovery".

...real-world, real-economy data provide a direct challenge for those who regularly claim that "high oil prices hurt economic growth".

World oil demand has moved up with higher oil prices, which themselves lead to faster economic growth through raising "real resource" prices and revenues to generally low-income exporters of non-energy minerals, metals and agro-commodities.

In addition, higher oil and other "real resource" prices - these resources quoted and traded in US dollars - automatically levers up world liquidity, which then buoys and reinforces world solvent demand. At the same time, the emerging industrial superpowers of China and India have such generally low economy-wide oil and energy-intensity (around 1/8th to 1/15th per capita oil-intensity of the US and EU countries) that they are easily able to absorb much higher oil and energy prices without strain to their balance of payments.

...a real world situation of oil prices increasing while world oil demand continues to expand very fast - a context in which higher oil prices lever up world oil demand.

...domestic oil consumption of the producer countries reduc(es) their net export or supply offer. (For example,) By 2010-12, Iran may become a net importer of crude. Indonesia will almost certainly cease to be an exporter of either crude or products by 2006 or even 2005.

Given the laissez faire or new economy doctrine in current political and business leaderships, it is unlikely that serious planning will occur, giving way to crisis by default.

^-----(from url)-----^

Nobody can forever merely print their way to prosperity. When the cult of numerology comes crashing down, be sure to have something tangible in your pocket for the preservation of your purchasing power.

Call USAGOLD-Centennial today and get yourself adequately diversified.

R.

http://www.nymex.com/media/delivery.pdfVault Gnomes busy today shuffling their largest amount since FND. 949 takes the tally to 15,500 odd.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/puplava/2005/0207.htmlBear-o-Metric Pressure Dropping
It should come as no surprise that even as the financial barometer is dropping with each Fed rate hike, economists and analysts are once again forecasting clear and sunny skies. Record trade deficits, rising government deficits, leveraged financial markets, ravaged consumer balance sheets, corporate malfeasance and a climate of speculation concern no one. Our financial forecasters are once again predicting perfect financial weather rather than the perfect financial storm.

GREAT comments in these POG Contest entries !
Thanks
<;-)

With the dollar drop from (DX) 120 range to 85 range, it's amazing to me that anyone can say with a straight face that their investments (stocks 10k range then and now) are "at least not losing ground". HA ! What we need is a "purhasing power index" that takes all factors into consideration and provides a realistic view of ALL investment markets......the REAL bottom line. Otherwise, it's just the same old fiat game with most investors measuring with rubber rulers. Such a simple concept, but still so many blinded by dollar "values".

I enjoy your posting(s) sir.

http://charts-d.quote.com:443/1002980432830?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=DX00Y∬erval=10&Ht=600&Wd=800&Display=2&Study=MA&Param1=13&Param2=0&Param3=&FontSize=10the ESF "Boyz" must have some real HEADACHES !
Having a tough time holding the 85 level !!!
Next stop is the 84 level AGAIN !
GO YELLOW
<;-)

http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$HUI,uu[h,a]daoayiay[pb200!f][vc60][iut!Uh89,21!Lp88,21,3]⪯f=G<;-)

At least, I believe it was his with the Usagold/CPM Inc. heading on the post. Anyway, it showed a low of $412.58 and I see that today's close is slightly higher. My question is...add music here from the old "Twilight Zone".....was Randy moved by supernatural forces to post that chart on just the day that the POG bottoms for this particular downside move??
Obviously, one day doesn't a trend make but...?

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/GB03Dj01.htmlThis provides an elaborate expansion to some of the MONOPOLY-themed ideas I've introduced in posts over the past couple days.

Key excerpts of a looooong article follow:

Feb 3, 2005 -- It has been said that when economics turns serious, it becomes political. The Washington Consensus, a term coined in 1990 by John Williamson of the Institute for International Economics to summarize the synchronized ideology of Washington-based establishment economists, reverberated around the world for a quarter of a century as the true gospel of reform indispensable for achieving growth in a globalized market economy.

Initially applied to Latin America and eventually to all developing economies, the term has come to be synonymous with globalized neo-liberalism or market fundamentalism to describe universal policy prescriptions based on free-market principles and monetary discipline within narrow ideological limits. It promotes for all economies macroeconomic control, trade openness, pro-market microeconomic measures, privatization and deregulation in support of a dogmatic ideological faith in the market's ability to solve all socio-economic problems more efficiently, and to assert a blanket denial of an obvious contradiction between market efficiency and poverty eradication.

Financial-capital growth is to be served at the expense of human-capital growth. Sound money, undiluted by inflation, is to be achieved by keeping wages low through structural unemployment. Pockets of poverty in the periphery are the necessary price for prosperous centers. Such dogmas grant unemployment and poverty, conditions of economic disaster, undeserved conceptual respectability. State intervention has come to focus mainly on reducing the market power of labor in favor of capital in a blatantly predatory market mechanism....

Neo-liberal economists argue that unemployment and poverty, deadly economic plagues in the short term, can lead to macroeconomic benefits in the long term, just as some historians perversely argue that even the Black Death (1348) had long-range beneficial effects on European society.

The resultant labor shortage in the short term pushed up wages in the mid-14th century, and the sudden rise in mortality led to an oversupply of goods, causing prices to drop. These two trends caused the standard of living to rise for those still living. Yet the short-term shortage of labor caused by the Black Death forced landlords to stop freeing their serfs, and to extract more forced labor from them.

In reaction, peasants in many areas used their increased market power to demand fairer treatment or lighter burdens. Frustrated, guilds revolted in the cities and peasants rebelled in the countryside. The Jacquerie in 1358, the Peasants' Revolt in England in 1381, the Catalonian Rebellion in 1395, and many revolts in Germany, all served to show how seriously the mortality had disrupted traditional economic and social relations.

Neo-liberalism in the past quarter-century created conditions that manifested themselves in violent political protests all over the globe, the extremist form being terrorism. But at least the bubonic plaque was released by nature and not by human ideological fixation. And neo-liberalism keeps workers unemployed but alive with subsistence unemployment aid, maintaining an ever-ready pool of surplus labor to prevent wages from rising from any labor shortage, eliminating even the cruelly derived long-term benefits of the Black Death.
:-^
("benefits" of Black Death... tongue firmly in cheek)

...the real harm of the Washington Consensus has yet to be properly recognized: that it is a prescription for generating failed states around the world among developing economies.

The United States is the leading advocate of the efficacy of free markets and the economic benefits of privatization of the public sector. It prescribes policy measures that aggressively weaken the state apparatus and that inevitably lead to failed statehood. At the same time, the US is also the leading proponent of superpower military intervention in failed states around the world.

Yet while neo-liberals, together with their strange bedfellows the neo-conservatives, advocate humanitarian military intervention in failed states, they adamantly oppose government intervention in failed markets that accept unemployment as necessary antidote for inflation.

The US now mistakes military and economic prowess for moral superiority and views itself as having earned the privileges of a benevolent hegemon. Thus the neo-imperialist formula for the new Pax Americana is a two-punch operation. The first punch uses neo-liberalism to cause a weak state's economy to collapse to produce a failed state. The second punch invades by force the failed state to delivery liberty as defined by the new imperialism to set it up as a US protectorate and economic colony.

...Failed and collapsed states are a structural trait of the contemporary international system, and not a temporary dysfunction of the Westphalian world order of sovereign states.

In the US, socio-economic Darwinism is celebrated as indispensable for the survival of the economy in the market place, while scientific theories of evolution are challenged by Creationism in public schools. Those who believe God created man apparently do not believe he created all men as equals. These structural anomalies and conceptual inconsistencies produce tensions in the international system, with serious consequences for developed and developing economies alike.

...market states with advanced economies increasingly do not consider most human aspects of societies as proper state concerns, such as the provision of a rising standard of welfare to their citizens, which has been conveniently assigned to the indifferent workings of the market, but confining themselves to guarding and strengthening no-holds-barred free-market conditions through which private wealth is generated for the benefit of the strong, leaving the weak to perish in a natural selection. Wealth-distribution functions are assigned to the market even though the structural maldistribution of market power is maintained by the state. This amounts to a selective exercise of state power of coercion to favor one segment of the population or one type of institutions at the expense of all others.

Neo-liberal ideology ... strips states of their sovereign authority to intervene in markets on behalf of national interests, causing state authority to collapse in all area except the protection of foreign and domestic private property. Failed states depend on globalized market fundamentals to finance their state functions and inevitably fall into collapsed-state status for lack of funds.

...Neo-imperialism detaches economic security from legitimate state functions. Freedom from want is not considered a state responsibility by neo-liberalism. Financial security is merely a market risk that should be faced by each individual market participant.

...Capitalists use globalized finance markets to tilt a level playing field in trade to create private profit out of public poverty. This is done through the private control of money as a legal tender, through a monetary system under a central banking regime that ideologically accepts structural unemployment as the unavoidable means to combat inflation. ... A globalized foreign-exchange market dominated by dollar hegemony is the venue for US superpower financial imperialism.

Dollar hegemony, the status of the dollar as a dominant reserve currency in international trade despite its fiat nature, operates in a globalized foreign-exchange market to rob sovereign states of their right and ability to issue sovereign credit for domestic development, by exposing their domestic currencies to market attacks. Since sovereign control over the monetary system and the economy is the sine qua non prerequisite of sovereignty, the BIS financial world order of failed states has in fact replaced the Westphalian world order of sovereign states through financial globalization.

^------(see url for full commentary)-----^

Whatever you come away with or read into this commentary, a point that should resonate with all of us is that games are being played on a higher level of social organization than the level at which you and I function in our daily lives, and as individuals we would do well to order our affairs in such a way that we seize personal responsibility for our financial security such as we can in an environment of not knowing from day to day what will befall the market value of our various state-sponsored gaming tokens, national currencies. Even the mighty dollar has demonstrated vulnerability, and on any given day may suffer a backlash at the hands of those perceiving themselves to be unacceptibly oppressed.

Choose gold and look reality right in the eye.

R.

Thanks for taking notice.

R.

http://eh.net/hmit/compare/Thank you for the accolades.

Here is a web site that may help you from day to day. As you are aware there are problems comparing buying power of a given currency over time,,,because the things that one can buy over time do change,,,,and hence the measure of change of the buying power of goods shows the difficulty. Try to think in terms of constants an ounce of gold or a loaf of bread. But know too that production costs of some products may have fallen in dollar value costs too. And how does one try to measure the worth over time of a Nortel stock? Well,... so there are built in distortions
Needless to say the CPI method may bit wonkier than most and we do not know how much "fiddling" goes on in the other comparisons.

Notwithstanding let's look at silver: the USD has lost approximately 2.75 fold of its buying power(including present difficulties)-since 1980. The Hunt Bros spike saw silver at $50. Silver would have to reach $137 in order to equal the 1980 spike. So I have no trouble believing in year 200x silver in triple digits. (Smile)

If one looks at gold in the same way, the present spot price has more in common with a 1950-1950 $35 per ounce at the start of its bull market than $410 gold well on its way.

Think in terms of an average wage today in the US at $100. That's only 4 days pay. What is 4 days pay in 1950-60?

You see?

Now do you see how successful has been the manipulation?

Best regards,

G.

http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Daily Gold Market Report has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.

Wednesday market excerpts

U.S. gold futures settled a shade higher on Wednesday after sliding to 4-1/2-month lows earlier, as gyrations in the dollar continued to dictate direction for the yellow metal, dealers said.

Gold had its first gain in five sessions.

COMEX April gold edged up 20 cents to $414.50, after trading between $411.50 -- its cheapest intraday price since Sept. 22 -- and the day's high at $415.30.

Trade was thin in metals this week as Chinese dealers were mostly absent and markets were closed in Hong Kong, Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore.

Japan also will shut Friday for a three-day national holiday.

A broker at a futures commission merchant said gold had tendency to stalk the euro's moves almost tick-for-tick in recent months. "Put up a 5-minute chart in gold and a 5-minute chart in the euro -- one's following the other," he said.

After gold closed, the euro was up at $1.2808, versus $1.2773 late on Tuesday.

------(see url for full news, 24-hr newswire)----

http://charts-d.quote.com:443/1002980432830?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=DX00Y∬erval=10&Ht=600&Wd=800&Display=2&Study=MA&Param1=13&Param2=0&Param3=&FontSize=10Start the band up with "The Party's Over" !
<;-)

http://www.miningweekly.co.za/min/news/breaking/?show=62672South Africa's Minerals & Energy Minister Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka said yesterday she opposed the idea of selling International Monetary Fund (IMF) gold, one of several proposals to use its gold reserves for debt relief.

Mlambo-Ngcuka told Reuters at an African mining conference in Cape Town that other minerals ministers at the event were concerned by media reports on the proposals, and they would ask the International Monetary Fund for clarification.

"Obviously if what we see in the newspapers is a fact we have reasons to be concerned," she said.

Asked for her view on South African Finance Minister Trevor Manuel's cautious backing of the gold sale proposals, along with suggestions to revalue the IMF's reserves, Mlambo-Ngcuka replied: "I don't know about that, I am not in favour of that".

"We are going to be looking at the latest intentions of the IMF gold sales," Mlambo Ngcuka said in a speech to the conference earlier. "We are going to be embarking on a coordinated approach to deal with this issue and to again avoid this becoming another problem for gold producers."

...The IMF holds 103,4-million ounces of gold, one of the biggest stocks in the world. Under a 1971 agreement, most is valued at $40 to $50 an ounce, or about a tenth of current market prices.

^----(from url)-----^

If gold producers exhibit this much worry over the potential sales of rational gold reserves, think how very much more legitimate worry is warranted by "bond producers" (the U.S.) over the potential sales of irrational dollar reserves!

R.

History's Mysteries, wreck of the SS Central America. Me loves the giant gold bars! Not to mention the double eagles.

-DoubleEagle

The Invisible Hand (2/18/02; 01:46:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 70296)
Confirmation and discussion ****$ 8,752****
I do hereby confirm my guess of ****$ 8,752 ****
Discussion: Although in an earlier post of the last fortnight I said that A/TG predicted an upward surge of 50 bucks a day, I think it would be more precise to say that the gentlemen argue the unexpected move towards $ 30,000 can occur at anytime. It must thus start once. Why not within the 'time limit' of the contest?
==
I read the USAGOLD Forum once a century because you never know, maybe it will happen one day and the USAGOLD chronometer will be working again so that it can predict the arrival. Beaujolais nouveau, anyone? Trink, trink, bruderlein, trink, la�t doch die Sorge zu hause!

......YOU ARE THE MAN!!!!

Contrary to ALL the rumors on the 'net'...YOU ARE THE MAN!!

;)

http://www.jsmineset.com/here's the story.

I complained, yes IMAGINE, I complained about the 'fickleness' of the financial institutions, the FED, Wall St., the analysts et al..........this morning.

Please go to the 'link', look for:

"Greenspan in Frankfurt Germany at the European Banking Conference, Nov. 19, 2004................"

...be quick....it will disappear soon.

As per my message this morning...."what the hell is going on....?" , this answers COMPLETELY why Greenfreak was so dollar negative in November and now so dollar positive in January.

Here's the quote:

"Greenspan in Frankfurt Germany at the European Banking Conference, Nov. 19, 2004"

"The question now confronting us is how large a current account deficit in the United States can be financed before resistance to acquiring new claims against U.S. residents leads to adjustment.

Even considering heavy purchases by central banks of U.S. Treasury and agency issues, we see only limited indications that the large U.S. current account deficit is meeting financing resistance.

Yet, net claims against residents of the United States cannot continue to increase forever in international portfolios at their recent pace. Net debt service cost, though currently still modest, would eventually become burdensome. At some point, diversification considerations will slow and possibly limit the desire of investors to add dollar claims to their portfolios. (Emphasis mine � Dan N)

Resistance to financing, however, is likely to emerge well before debt servicing becomes an issue, or before the economic return on assets invested in the United States or in dollars more generally starts to erode.

Even if returns hold steady, a continued buildup of dollar assets increases concentration risk.

Net cross-border claims against U.S. residents now amount to about one-fourth of annual U.S.GDP. A continued financing even of today's current account deficits as a percentage of GDP doubtless will, at some future point, increase shares of dollar claims in investor portfolios to levels that imply an unacceptable amount of concentration risk.

This situation suggests that international investors will eventually adjust their accumulation of dollar assets or, alternatively, seek higher dollar returns to offset concentration risk, elevating the cost of financing of the U.S. current account deficit and rendering it increasingly less tenable. If a net importing country finds financing for its net deficit too expensive, that country will, of necessity, import less. It seems persuasive that, given the size of the U.S. current account deficit, a diminished appetite for adding to dollar balances must occur at some point."

Alan Greenspan 2 1/2 months later in London, Feb 4, 2005:

"The dramatic advances over the past decade in virtually all measures of globalization have resulted in an international economic environment with little relevant historical precedent I have argued elsewhere that the U.S. current account deficit cannot widen forever but that, fortunately, the increased flexibility of the American economy will likely facilitate any adjustment without significant consequences to aggregate economic activity/emphasis mine - Dan N.) That argument will be tested, I suspect, by possibly new twists and turns that will emerge in a seemingly ever-more complex international economic and financial structure.

Translation of Feb 4. 2005 comments: "I know that this cannot go on indefinitely as it is simply unsustainable since I just mentioned two months ago that foreigners are going to diversify from dollar based assets at some point. However, don't sweat it" - that adjustment by foreigners will be 'without significant consequences to aggregate economic activity'. In other words, it will all be painless and easy. As a matter of fact, you will not even be aware it is taking place it will be so smooth!".

Here's the quote from Dan Norcini, Sinclair's buddy:

"This is a master of spin at work. In the short span of two months, we no longer have to worry the least bit about any "diminished appetite" for 'investors ('foreigners'- Dan N.) adding dollar balances'. I must have missed what transpired over that two month interval that resulted in such an optimistic reassessment of his former view. Why is it that so few in financial circles actually replay his speeches and point out the obvious contradictions seemingly from one month to the next?"

THANK YOU DAN........THE MAN!

Now! ........aside from Greenspeak's baloney......gold has been floundering and the HUI has been hurting.....notice today that the HUI turned positive .........HARD!!!!!!

The bottom is in! GOLD does not believe the U.S. rhetoric ANYMORE!! It's over.....$410 is the line in the sand.....anything else is bullsnot.

Major buy......IMNSHO........hee...hee.

I am now super-long and super strong.....at least that's how the wife describes my 'portfolio'.

Hope others have seen the turn.

Have a golden day.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=$GOLD,PWTBDANRBO[PA][D][F1!3!!!2!20]⪯f=GAnd now we have ten million and twenty (10,000,020) reasons why GOLD will go "TO THE MOON, Alice" !
<;-)

well, by a mile and a smile.

Sauf, sauf Br�derlein sauf -
lass doch den Dollar zu haus.

Sauf, sauf Br�derlein sauf
wir haben den Euro zuhauf!


Thanks for the reminder - TIH - we'll take
it in stride. In earnest the charade is played
out by charlatans, posing as realpolitcicians!`
Or is it neocons? A new hybrid inner Beltway
species of cloned congressional Clowns? I
wouldn't know - though, would you?!

I mean would you know if - no not if - but surely when you're conned? No not the neo-conservative way - no, just the neo conning way ... "Orwell", you'll know "when" you've been conned after the fact - a fact which is in full play and view ... for your eyes only - cnbc, cnn, fox and all times and tribs and I - cb2

Good chart! Thanks. I would not like to see support break at these levels. The bearish price objective on your chart is 376. If we break down here, that would break the weekly uptrend line on the price charts too, and we might begin a sideways trend. Policy makers in Washington are threatening to reduce fiscal deficits, and AG says the trade balance is ready to improve too. I think this may be all BS, but for now gold seems to be saying wait and see. If the rhetoric doesn't match the results, gold could consolidate here and then once again move forward. Remember, sound fiscal and trade policies are probably good for the dollar, and bad for gold.

You bring up some of the same factors I've illuded to, and especially the difficulties involved in following "all" factors involved in determining gains or losses.

Not only do "things" change over time, but the NEED for them changes as well. So again, we are rarely dealing with "constants" in making comparative valuations between gold, silver, and other "necessities" of life, or for that matter, any "investments". We are dealing with "value relativity" over time, or "relative values" if you will, as there are no true constants involved unless we are dealing or valuing only ONE item. An ounce of gold or an ounce of silver is a constant in that sense, because the "ounce" is always an ounce. But their relative values are ever changing, making it difficult to guage the value of one thing against another over time.

I'm reminded of the "Beanie Baby" and "Hot Wheels" toy car craze of several years ago. We purchased the "HOT" items via retail stores, catalogers, and internet dealers in those days, then set up shop on many weekends at "Collectibles Shows" and made money hand over fist. It seemed we could not get enough to satisfy all of the "collectors". Today, you can't give the stuff away, and luckily we sold out at the first sign of slowing demand and waneing interest in these "HOT" commodities. This was late 90s era, and having been in the PM markets on and off since the early 70s, knew that gold and silver were likely at their lows by 1999, which turned out to be correct. Proceeds of that little excursion in the toy fads were plowed back into metals, mostly Krugerrands, which we have been riding since.

But more to the point, there were certain "toys" at that time, things you could buy at your local Wal Mart store, that were very much in demand if you were lucky enough to run across them and had a "show" outlet to pass them on. Some of those little stuffed animals and pot-metal toy cars were worth, in some cases, ounceS of gold at the time. Today they go begging......that change in "relative value" that I mentioned.

But the same constantly applies to everything, including currencies, stocks, bonds, metals, real estate...... you name it. The only constant is the lack of consistency.

You mention metals in relation to a loaf of bread. But if we go to the local super market, we find bread priced anywhere from 75 cents to several dollars a loaf, depending on quality, ingredients, bakery, etc. What exactly then is the comparative dollar or PM value of "a loaf of bread" ? The same scenario applies to computers, vehicles, televisions, toilet paper, and so on. How exactly do we determine a "CPI" when the standards keep changing ?

I guess my point is, that over time, we really can only compare an item against itself for there to be absolute consistency. Our Krugerrand will always be an ounce of gold, "worth" an ounce of gold, regardless of what its "worth" happens to be in other commodities, food, or other goods or consumables. The old adage of that ounce always buying a suit of men's clothing through history is another misnomer in that there are vast differences in the quality and price ("value") of that man's suit. Some may be available at two for an ounce, while others might require several ounces to obtain. Again, we are dealing with relative value.

As much as we PM holders would like to think that our coins and bars are a bedrock standard of value, that simply is not the case, nor has it ever been. They are just another ever-floating item of ever-changing relative value in comparison to all other forms of "value", regardless of where we place that value.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=email_us&refer=columnist_berry&sid=a9Y0rAfhiA4g
Snippit:

Feb. 9 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, speaking in London last week, put the best face he could on the outlook for the burgeoning U.S. current account deficit. Currency markets, perhaps misled by the seemingly hopeful tone of Greenspan's remarks, responded by bidding up the value of the dollar. They should have listened more closely to all his carefully worded caveats and conditional phrases. Perhaps the Fed chairman was wary about triggering another sell-off of the dollar similar to that which followed his speech last November. His statements then were interpreted by some market participants as an effort to talk down the dollar to aid in reducing the current account deficit.

Meanwhile, at a conference at the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank the same day as his London speech, numerous economists predicted that the current account deficit is likely to worsen until foreign investors become unwilling to finance it. For example, economists Nouriel Roubini of the Stern School of Business at New York University and Brad Setser of University College, Oxford, argued, ``The U.S. is currently financing itself by selling low-yielding dollar debt which offers foreign investors little protection against a future fall in the dollar.

``Yet the United States' large trade deficit and rapidly rising external debt to GDP ratio imply that a large future fall in the dollar will be needed to reduce the U.S. trade deficit to more sustainable levels,'' Roubini and Setser said. Eventually the prospect of such losses will cause investors to shy away from dollar assets, they argued.


Black Blade: Exactly! Just what some of us have been saying all along. I saw the Euroland version of CNBC this morning and similar sentiments were expressed by the network's guests. The twin deficits and the "currency war" continues to weigh on the dollar and some economists are only now beginning to see that the "emperor wears no clothes". A little "portfolio insurance" is always prudent in these uncertain times (or should I - dare I say - "interesting times").

http://www.cfo.com/article.cfm/3643693/c_3643739?f=home_todayinfinance
Snippit:


Corporate executives and directors are bearish on their own companies' stock. In January, insiders bought a mere $34.1 million of their own companies' stock, little more than a third of the $95 million for December, according to MarketWatch, which cited data from Thomson Financial.

The January number was the lowest since July 1993, when insiders bought just $26.3 million, according to MarketWatch. That month, however, insider purchases still accounted for roughly 5.5 percent of all dollars spent on insider-trading activity; in January 2005, purchases accounted for a mere 1.8 percent of the total dollars spent by insiders.

"We expected a month-over-month decline of some sort in keeping with the seasonal trend in each of the past 10 years," noted the Thomson report cited by MarketWatch "However, the magnitude of the decline in buying was unexpected." Insider behavior is watched very closely because this group is generally considered the most knowledgeable about a company's prospects. Insiders may sell for a number of reasons � to pay taxes, to diversify their portfolio, to make a large personal expenditure � but they buy for only one reason � they think their company's stock is cheap.


Black Blade: If insiders won't touch their own company shares with a 19 foot pole then why should you. This does not bode well for shares. On a side note - the old saw that "as goes January so goes the year" suggests that the stock indices should end in the red this year as this January the indices fell short. Of course the Super Bowl indicator suggests otherwise. Then my favorite - the "hemline indicator", but alas I see no mini-skirts so far this year. Hmmm...

http://www.crbtrader.com/data/default.asp?page=quote&sym=GCJ5&mode=dNo vol on April, all yesterdays action on the current (delivery) Month. Something is gonna give REAL soon!

Your exchange of thoughts do touch the hart of the gold-matters.
Yes, those Krugerrands are freely tradable but we cannot believe that the invisible hand (not bruderlein TIH) has taken away "our" freedom of "PRICING" those ounces !!!
We simply go on believing that there is no such thing as an invisible hand and that there are only free "markets" !
Regulation-deregulation and intervention simply goes beyond us. We mistakenly believe in the genuine market forces as the most simple understandable (convenient) explanation.

Just consider all those invisible hands that are guiding the different units of trade, fiat currencies. Who decides on the IRs...exchange rates...confetti expansion/contraction ? Is all this as transparent as they want us to believe it is ? Do we have any say on the 30,000 tonnes of official goldreserves ?
Are we deciding on war or peace ?

It is when invisible hands are getting gangrenous that they risk to be amputated. This will happen with the invisible hands that are "pricing" our ounces as non-value ...read confetti/digits !!! The invisible goldpricing hands are aging and wounded. They will have to let "their" imposed standard of gold, go. The gangrene was caused by their mismanagement of the trade units (numericals). Goldpricing cannot be compressed into the established confetti/digit system. Their specific gold-"markets" will detoriate and explode. Then an ounce will indeed be "valued" as an ounce.
Valued with a constant "free" pricing. "Value" to be associated with "free".

But because we are all so terribly conditioned to accept that what we must call money is so "unfree"...we are afraid of the unknown prospect of real freedom. That's why we keep on thinking about "limited" prices for gold, just a bit higher than the ones we are accustumed to. Just like our never ending complacent trust in the aging dollar fiat/digit...ruled by the invisible hands. That's what political correctness is all about.

Thank you gentlemen.

http://www.sustecweb.co.uk/past/sustec11-6/duck.htmSNIPS :
"There will be a crisis when Europe, Asia and Latin America finally break away. The U.S. has said it can't pay back its dollar debts and doesn't intend to. As an alternative, it has proposed "funding the US dollar overhang" into the world monetary system. Other countries would get IMF credit equal to their dollar holdings, but these holdings no longer would be US Treasury obligations. The US would wipe its debt to foreign central banks off the hook. This would mean that it would have got all the balance-of-payments deficits for the past 32 years for free, with no quid pro quo.
The US has been proposing this for 30 years whenever Europe raises the issue of payment for its dollar holdings. American diplomats have said that they won't allow central banks to use their dollars to buy US corporations, for instance. When OPEC countries proposed this after 1973, the US Treasury reportedly informed them that this would be considered an act of war. As for Europe, it never has pushed its own self-interest in the World Bank or the IMF."

"Meanwhile, America's federal budget deficits can go on without limit, precisely because of the balance of payment deficit. The larger the payments deficit, the more dollars end up in the hands of foreign central banks, to be recycled into the purchase of US Treasury securities. This means that the US government's deficit - including the military spending in Iraq, by the way - is financed by foreign governments. This will continue despite the fact the debt already has grown greater than the ability to pay, until these countries finally break away from the system."
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Interesting interview with Michael Hudson. Hudson doesn't elaborate "a break away from the system". How can the debts be settled or compensated in that event ?
Snowmans 'unalarming levels' of outside US dollarreserves say a lot. To use Bismarck's famous quote: "Never believe in anything until it has been officially denied.".
The fact that the ECB's gold holdings at this moment are only 23% less then their foreign exchange reserves are a clear indication that Europe sees :
1. a solution in gold in case of "a break away".
2. the break away is coming closer.

Here we go again in European markets : As sson as the euro loses strength (against the dollar-under 1,2815) the POO goes UP ($46-+1,2%) and the euro fall stops !!!

This simply means that oil is being priced in euro (de facto not de jure). The dollar lost its support from the oil-standard !!!

This IS the $ >>> � ,"transitional" phase !!!

Next step is LSE under the continental umbrella. C. Parker will be invited on the reception.

Hey brother...y're flying higher and higher. No need to keep studying A/FOA. You got it !!! Wawwwww.

The article is simply saying that free floating goldprices are coming !!!
The IMF yadayada of "revaluation" of their goldwealth for indebted third world countries...will evolve into freegold as to forgive and forget the cosmic debt of that first world state, soon not responsible for the globe's numeraire, anymore. YES WE ARE GETTING CLOSER. Let the bruderleins drink � volont�.

One more thing, 986...DON'T FORGET TO GET YOU SOME MORE, MATE.

(CAUTION: PLEASE CONFIRM)


...........................................................

"TOKYO -- (MarketWatch) -- North Korea declared Thursday for the first time it has produced nuclear weapons, according to news reports, citing the official Korean Central News Agency. Noth Korea said it wouldn't return to six-nation talks aimed at getting it to abandon its nuclear ambitions, and that its nuclear weapons will remain "a deterrent for self-defense under any circumstances."


...........................................................

(CAUTION: PLEASE CONFIRM)

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/recenteqsww/As a matter of interest, seismic activity since 26th Dec has been increasing throughout the Pacific Rim and just lately further afield.
This Map indicates recent events. Note increasing activity both North and East of the original 9.2 Quake off Sumatra, following the Plate-lines.

Please enter me in at$$$$$$$ 418.20 $$$$$$.

Now to answer your question.

I read gold eagle about 2 times a week, mostly because the better posters have left !!!!!!!!!!!!!.

N Korea admits to making nuclear weapons
By Anna Fifield in Seoul and Daniel Dombey in Brussels
Published: February 10 2005 07:10 | Last updated: February 10 2005 13:17.

From THE Financial Times

North Korea on Thursday declared it had manufactured nuclear weapons - its most brazen admission yet that is has crossed the nuclear threshold - and announced it was withdrawing from multilateral negotiations on its disarmament.


Coming amid increasing hopes of an imminent breakthrough to the stalemate over Pyongyang's nuclear weapons programme, perhaps as soon as this month, the statement will confound North Korea's neighbours.

"We had already taken the resolute action of pulling out of the NPT (nuclear non-proliferation treaty) and have manufactured nukes for self-defence to cope with the Bush administration's ever-more undisguised policy to isolate and stifle the DPRK," North Korea's foreign ministry said, in a statement run by the official Korean Central News Agency. North Korea is officially known there as the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.

The weapons were built as a "nuclear deterrent for self-defence under any circumstances," the statement said. "The present reality proves that only powerful strength can protect justice and truth."

But some analysts point out that North Korea, with its fondness for belligerent outbursts, has a history of strengthening its threats just before agreeing to talks, a tactic aimed at increasing its bargaining power. If that is the case this time, Thursday's rhetoric could in fact be a counter-intuitively positive gesture.

Nevertheless, the first unequivocal admission that it already has nuclear arms will in the interim cause some alarm.

"This is really serious � North Korea is now stepping over the red line," said Kim Tae-woo, a nuclear expert at the Korean Institute for Defence Analyses in Seoul.

"This is an unfortunate move... because it deepens North Korea's isolation from the rest of the international community," said Condoleezza Rice, US secretary of state, at a meeting with the European Union in Luxembourg.

"There is a path ahead for the North Koreans that would put them in a more reasonable relationship with the rest of the world, " she said. Ms Rice still hoped that Pyongyang would participate in talks on its nuclear programme. "We hope that there will be six party talks soon," she said.

But Ms Rice attempted to downplay the significance of the North Korean announcement, which some critics see as a big setback for the Bush administration.

"We have for some time taken account of the capability of the North Koreans to perhaps have a few nuclear weapons," she said, arguing that the US had made such assumptions since the mid 1990s. She said US and South Korean forces in the region could cope with "any threat from North Korea"

Japan said it had not received official confirmation from North Korean officials regarding its decision to pull out of six-party talks. But the foreign ministry, responding to media reports, said: "Their attitude is extremely unconstructive. It is in North Korea's own interest to resolve the nuclear issue through six-party talks. Accordingly, we would like to ask that North Korea comes back to the table as soon as possible."


WMD interactive map
Click here


Since President George W Bush barely mentioned North Korea in his state of the union address earlier this month, analysts had expected a placated Pyongyang to agree to attend the fourth round of six-way talks with China, Japan, Russia, the US and South Korea.

There had been signs that Pyongyang was warming to the resumption of negotiations. Two recent congressional delegations to North Korea were also well received, with the official KCNA news agency saying afterwards that Pyongyang was ready to settle the nuclear issue peacefully and treat Washington as a "friend".

Ban Ki-moon, South Korea's foreign minister, left for Washington on Thursday for talks with Condoleezza Rice, the new US secretary of state, while Michael Green, senior director for Asia on the National Security Council, last week said the US had a "serious proposal" for North Korea.

Pyongyang on Thursday poured cold water on such expectations. "We have wanted the six-party talks but we are compelled to suspend our participation in the talks for an indefinite period till we have recognized that there is justification for us to attend the talks," the foreign ministry said through KCNA.

It had reached its decision because "the US disclosed its attempt to topple the political system in the DPRK at any cost, threatening it with a nuclear stick".

The fourth round of talks were scheduled to be held in September but Pyongyang refused to attend, apparently stalling in the hope a Kerry administration would lead to more favourable negotiating terms.

The six-party talks broke down after the third round in June, when Pyongyang rejected Washington's call to freeze its nuclear weapons programmes. Pyongyang is demanding security assurances from the US and economic aid before it will consider a freeze.

JES just said: "In the final analysis,
the real money will be made by the
investor and not the trader who will
at one point make a great deal, and
then watch gold rise more than
500 points".
Echoes of Belgian, MK, Ari & Co. OvS

I read the USAGOLD Forum Daily!

If it weren't for USAGOLD and ALL the particapants who've graced these Castle halls,
I wouldn't be afforded the oppertunity to just Sit Back and Watch the Show!

Thank you to our gracious Host for providing this little slice of heaven
and for the chance to win FREE GOLD

That's about 5- $2 collars from here. I guess North Korea's stunner about their WMD's makes gold $2 more valuable today. I visit USAGOLD forum daily because it filters out a lot of the noise and is more pure gold thought. Besides MK anf GC sell me all my shiny coins that I give them fiat paper for. What a deal!

Nice to hear that the authoritive Mister Gold recommends *holding* gold instead of trading it, whatever his argumentation for this change might be.
Most probably, many gold-traders are making less and less profits on their trades. They simply make the same conclusion than the Red Barons !
This means that gold will go swimming in other (free) waters. It never "functioned" as a hedge against fiat depreciation, anyway. You "had" to "trade" on the "goldprice" . Traders should go to the forex and bet on fiat paper/digits...if they can. Or sell the dollar and buy the Dow.

Gold was never meant to be paperized. There are no derivatives on the Mona Lisa or any other piece of valuable art. Derivatization of "wealth" is complete nonsense. Wealth is the endresult...the consolidation... of one's activities.

The fake goldprice, during the past 30 yrs, only served to "hide" the real price-inflations, read currency depreciations. That's about to be finished.

Watch how the (rising)Dow is acting as a counterweight for the (declining) dollar exchange rate, again.
But the masses seem not to trust this anymore and are looking for whatever IR-product they can find. The more they look (shop) the lower IRs go.
How can one take dollars in portfolio at the present obscene low IRs and suffer from a declining exchange rate on top of this misery ?

I keep having my questions about the goldmines as well. I strongly suspect that they will disappoint (keep on disappointing) a lot of hopers/speculators/traders ???
Yeah sure, goldmines disappoint because of the currency exch. rate situation. But isn't it because there is something going on with the currencies, that one is looking at gold !? Goldprice looks OK, why aren't the miners following (leading)...remain neutral ? Keep on watching.

Thanks, Belgium.
Also remember what ANOTHER(THOUGHTS!) said about the pricing system of gold encouraged by central bank interests: something to the sense of gold being value priced (to them) at some $5000 per ounce. (If one had to pick a figure, I presume.)

The sell the allure of paper profits was truly the aim of the giants behind the system.

To let the gold go elsewhere to stronger hands.

Best regards,

G.

"The sell" should read "To sell"
G.

Did you mean 361 or 461....

Thought i'd get asked that

three sixty one is correct

when i guess HIGH, it goes down
if i guess LOW, it should go ?? ;)

Just a guess friend, no rhyme no reason

it appears to be working

i shoulda guessed lower

http://urbansurvival.com/week.htmsnip:

"We have been watching the progress of the US dollar ever since the web bots made their recent call for a loss of equilibrium (which will become apparent in retrospect) happening about a week ago.� Today, we not only worry about the chance of China revaluing its currency, a move which with a single stroke could rapidly increase the rate of inflation in the U.S., but which would also point out to the entire thinking world that China is now calling the shots.� More fuel for the fire is out today as the trade deficit has soared again.� We frankly expect the market to continue drifting down for quite a while now.� How far is down?� Other than today's action, it will all be driven by future events.

A bit of math is interesting to consider.� If we take the US GDP (story out earlier this week) less federal spending ($9.158 trillion) and we back out the $0.6177 trillion we see that 6.74% of the GDP is made up of borrowed funds.� Put another way, we can see how the federal budget plan of the Bush administration depends on continued foreign deficits in order to make sense.� A real reduction in the balance of trade deficit would tighten the stranglehold of debt on government which is why you don't see members of Congress rushing about to close the gap - we need it or government services would need to be cut even further than the budget proposed!�

Let me repeat that: The reason that government is not doing anything about the trade deficit is that it too depends on the deficit to make ends meet and without a trade deficit, there would have to be even more federal belt tightening.� Fix the deficit talk is therefore all hype and no substance - voter entertainment, folks, voter entertainment!"

-Goldilox

More ponderings on the behind-the-scenes economic model by George Ure. If the dollar slide is supposed to balance the trade gap, where will the "guns and butter" financing come from? Interesting viewpoint.

Money is piling into the bond market this week, as the ten-year bond pounds the 4.0% threshold. AG's conundrum is raising rates to attract government financing or continued falling rates to attract SM market specs.

Can you say "rock and a hard place?"

http://www.usagold.com/gold/special/grp.html

Lothar reads the USAGOLD Forum daily because Lothar receives much insight and encouragement. The Hill people are generally unaware of the wealth preservation of GOLD, but tend to put their trust in the intestinal fortitude of the great albino bats which inhabit the dark recesses of our ancestrial home. Lothan enjoys communion with others of like mind.

I am Lothar of the Hill People.

Thanks for the clarification. I've considered using that strategy myself on other occasions.... So far so good - thanks for taking one for the team!

I read UsaGold Forum because there appears to be a few people who understand the world of finances and have taken the time to post their knowledge here. We novices can gain some insight to assist us in making wise choices for our investment portfolio.

http://charts-d.quote.com:443/1002980432830?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=DX00Y∬erval=10&Ht=600&Wd=800&Display=2&Study=MA&Param1=13&Param2=0&Param3=&FontSize=10GO YELLOW !

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$HUI,uu[h,a]daoayiay[pb200!f][vc60][iut!Uh89,21!Lp88,21,3]⪯f=GGO YELLOW !
<;-)

Wow! What a precipitous decline in the USD after one last attempt to drive it up! Those currency traders take no prisoners and have little mercy for the FED.... How "controlled" do you think this latest decline will be? I presume the next fight will be closer to the 0.80 level.

IMVHO, The 84 level that was sooooo tough to break on the UPSIDE, will now be SUPPORT on the DOWNSIDE (for a while), before heading DOWN to "test" the 80 LEVEL for the LAST TIME !
GO YELLOW !
<;-)

HI HO SILVER, AWAY !
<;-)

My interpretation : No aboveground gold for redistribution.
Keep on plundering the miners (Tanzania-Peru) and let them swet for razorthin profit margins. Might have it wrong, because of my bad character.

Funny timing for repeating that they have nukes. If Iran should start selling (trading) oil for euro...they will need some support from those who buy (and need) the Iranian oil (and gas). Is N. Korea their pitbull ?

POG CONTEST UPDATE as of 2/10/05, Thursday at HIGH NOON (12:00) Denver time !

Entries listed in order of decending values !
-------

$$$$8,752.0$$$$ The Invisible Hand (2/9/05; 17:15:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 129072)

$$$$ $488.5 $$$$ Merlinsen (2/8/05; 10:00:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 129004)

$$$$ $454.7 $$$$ Moegold (2/8/05; 14:03:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 129019)

$$$$ $444.4 $$$$ Beamer (2/9/05; 01:35:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 129036)

$$$$ $432.2 $$$$ madmark (2/9/05; 11:12:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 129051)

$$$$ $432.0 $$$$ spikedog (02/04/05; 22:50:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 128898)

$$$$ $429.9 $$$$ Gandalf the White (02/04/05; 11:27:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 128871)

$$$$ $426.8 $$$$ The Hoople (2/10/05; 07:55:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 129093)

$$$$ $426.5 $$$$ Sundeck (02/04/05; 17:10:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 128888)

$$$$ $426.0 $$$$ Topaz (02/04/05; 16:52:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 128886)

$$$$ $424.2 $$$$ lifer (02/04/05; 15:22:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 128883)

$$$$ $422.3 $$$$ slingshot (02/04/05; 15:35:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 128885)

$$$$ $420.0 $$$$ Lothar of the Hill People (2/10/05; 10:19:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 129102)

$$$$ $419.8 $$$$ servantHeart (2/10/05; 10:36:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 129104)

$$$$ $418.2 $$$$ Slowman (2/10/05; 05:21:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 129089)

$$$$ $415.9 $$$$ Smeagol (02/05/05; 15:44:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 128925)

$$$$ $412.1 $$$$ pilgrims_gold (2/9/05; 12:33:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 129055)

$$$$ $409.0 $$$$ YGM (02/08/05; 04:06:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 128999)

$$$$ $408.1 $$$$ Henri (2/9/05; 08:02:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 129041)

$$$$ $407.1 $$$$ 2023 (2/6/05; 23:18:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 128961)

$$$$ $405.6 $$$$ Chally (2/8/05; 23:34:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 129034)

$$$$ $400.0 $$$$ DryWasher (2/8/05; 10:57:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 129009)

$$$$ $398.0 $$$$ DoubleEagle (02/08/05; 01:09:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 128998)

$$$$ $361.0 $$$$ Sprout (2/10/05; 07:09:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 129092)

=====
AND -- In case you missed the CALL TO CONTEST ----

Gandalf the White (02/04/05; 10:53:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 128869)
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ A "PRICE of GOLD" GUESSING CONTEST!! $$$$$$$$$$$$

We shall have a price guessing contest on the closing (Settlement price) of gold for the April COMEX contract (GCJ05) on Wednesday, February 16, 2005, ---BUT all entries must be posted to the TableRound before Midnight on Sunday, February 13th.

The "Price of Gold" (POG) Contest winner -- the person with the closest price guess to the actual Settlement Price -- will receive a nineteenth Century 20 Lira Italian Umberto I coin, (which may be seen at the following LINK).
http://www.usagold.com/gold/coins/ItalyUmb.html
These coins were Minted between 1880 - 1897 with a Fineness of 0.900, which therefore contains an "Actual Gold Content" of 0.1867 net fine troy ounces of pure GOLD !

There will be also be two runners-up prizes for the next closest prognostications --- each winning an one ounce U.S. Silver Eagle.

THE RULES -- (We MUST have RULES !!) --- PLEASE READ !!

1) The Winner is the poster with the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX (most active) April 2005 Gold Contract (GCJ05) on the date of Wednesday, February 16, 2005.

3) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $421.0)

4) "Guesses" shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT BOX location AND enclosed in markers of "Dollar Signs" so as to be OFFICIAL !
(Such as $$$$$ $421.0 $$$$$$$ )

5) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! "FIRST COME" has rights to that "Guess".

6) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes MIDNIGHT (24:00) on Sunday, February 13, 2005.

7) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY--- (as this part MUST accompany the Price prognostication)
--- In order for your entry to be valid, entries will be REQUIRED to answer the DIFFICULT and controversial subject by "Determining and COMPLETING the following statement": <;-)

I read the USAGOLD Forum ( how often? ) because ------ (in 25 words or more!).

--
LET the CONTEST continue !
===
"COME ON IN" all you Lurkers ! Now is the time to get your Posting Code from the TownCrier at the Link at the top of this PAGE !
---
<;-)

Gold GCJ05 Apr '05 COMEX Contract
Open = $414.8 HIGH = $420.1 low = $413.1
Settlement = $418.7 Change = +$4.2
<;-)

Houston, we have achieved Crossover.
Roger that, Gold Wing. You're clear for Throttle Up.
Houston, Going Throttle Up!

Keep the Faith.
Slingshot----------------<>

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=email_us&refer=us&sid=aukINKy5Zldo
Snippit:

Feb. 10 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. trade gap narrowed 4.9 percent in December from a record as the price of foreign oil sank and exports jumped. The deficit for all of 2004 grew 24 percent to the widest ever.

Black Blade: Of course this trade gap is compared to the "revised" data for the previous month. The Decmeber number has yet to be "revised" and those revisions are invariably revised upward. We could see yet another "surprise". All in all, the data suggests that the US dollar will weaken further - much further. Of course Gold and Silver will very likely respond in a positive trend.

BTW, the trade gap for November was a rare revision downward. The trend however, paints a "grim" picture for the so-called "strong dollar policy" which in reality is a "policy of benign neglect".

- Black Blade

http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/stories.pl?ACCT=104&STORY=/www/story/02-10-2005/0002991775&EDATE=
Snippit:

SANTA MONICA, Calif., Feb. 10 /PRNewswire/ -- With the plummeting dollar putting pressure on the Fed, interest rates are likely to keep climbing in 2005. This could set into motion a chain of events that raises the price of gold to record heights. So says Kevin DeMeritt, President of Lear Financial, a precious metal asset management company.

"It's all happened before," DeMeritt said. "Interest rates turned higher in the 60s and kept rising for fifteen years up to an unbelievable 19%. Meanwhile, gold soared from $36 to $850 for a whopping 2,261% increase." DeMeritt believes a strong link still exists between higher rates and higher gold. He also believes history is about to repeat itself. "Conditions are similar to the 70s. Oil was up 400% then and oil is up 400% over the last six years now. We have the same high deficits, the same costly war, the same rising rates. And now we may see the same record gold prices."


Black Blade: Now this guy understands. "Real Rates" are extremely positive for the precious metals. Inflation is outpacing the nominal Fed rate and the "real rate" is effectively negative - a potent stimulous for Gold and Silver. Add the twin deficits and it is just darn volatile.

I read the USAGold Forum almost daily since I was first drawn in by reading the classic Oil for Gold papers which struck a cord. I have been returning ever since for the insight into the market machinations and subtle undercurrents of the gold and silver markets not clearly evident (or completely and purposely obscured) in mainstream media.

http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh23620_2005-02-10_21-29-42_nat001393_newsmlNEW YORK, Feb 10 (Reuters) - Foreign central banks were net sellers of U.S. Treasuries for the third week in a row in the latest week, Federal Reserve data showed on Thursday.

The amounts sold so far have been minor compared with their massive holdings, but could still heighten recent concerns that foreign central banks were losing their appetite for buying ever more U.S. debt.

The Fed said its overall holdings of Treasury and agency debt kept for overseas central banks fell by $4.98 billion in the week ending Feb. 9, to stand at $1.339 trillion.

The breakdown of custody holdings showed overseas central banks sold a net $4.66 billion of Treasuries, on top of a $12 billion drop the previous week.

^-----(from url)-----^

Light trimming of the dollar overhang...

R.

http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Daily Gold Market Report has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.

Thursday Market Excerpts

U.S. gold futures closed at a nine-day high Thursday on the back of a rejuvenated euro, as the dollar failed to capitalize on news the massive U.S. trade deficit narrowed in December, traders and analysts said.

"The dollar hadn't taken a beating like this for a couple of days. It was a pretty safe play to buy euros and sell dollars and I think the metals market ran with that," said Scott Meyers at Pioneer Futures.

COMEX April gold settled at $418.70, up $4.20 on the day.

U.S. lawmakers have told U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow to oppose proposals for the sale of the IMF's gold.

In a letter to Snow, 12 senators -- from mainly U.S. mining states -- said sales of the IMF's 103 million ounces of gold reserves, the world's third-largest, would hurt gold producers and cause job losses.

Meanwhile, the U.S. trade deficit narrowed in December to $56.4 billion, just a tad below analysts' forecasts for $57 billion, as oil import prices had their biggest monthly fall in almost 14 years, the Commerce Department said.

But the annual trade gap still widened more than 24 percent in 2004 to a record $617.7 billion.

The November trade gap was revised down to $59.3 billion from $60.3 previously, but it remained a record, with December's gap the second highest.

----(see url for full news, 24-hr newswire, market prices)----

HEADLINES

SA gold mining in danger of floundering

U.S. trade deficit hits record, pushed by imported oil, cars, food

Dollar Down as Trade Gap Worries Reemerge

Dollar turns lower as bullish run loses steam

No concrete work recently as the ground is frozen and too few residential builders will invest the time and $$ needed to heat the house or garage that needs a floor. Being an engineer, you know that pouring concrete on frozen ground is a no-no. Besides, the mix freezes before we can even finish it.

But, as you mentioned, silver made my day today!

Often there seems to be some news (usually just talk) that mark the turning points in the metals' prices, especially that yellow gold. Have the combined recent talk of possible IMF gold sales and the recent government talk of lowering the budget deficits now marked another turning point? Also, the clairvoyent Towncrier's chart of Tuesday shows a possible bottom of $412.58. I'm not sure where the 8 cents came from but the chart's appearance, at precisely the moment that the latest chicken entrail reading had predicted that a "sign" would appear is just (imho) too much to be attributed to coincidence.

So, combining the governments' timing of deficit reduction talk (BS?), the inaction of the IMF after making such a brou-haha about selling, the timely appearance of Randy's chart, along with the wizard's USDollar index charts that show that the buck may soon fall again, can we now conclude that gold and silver have satisfied whatever downside numbers needed to be touched this time around..??
I don't know, of course, but doesn't all this sound just as good as any "spin" you might hear on the peoples' television stock picking channel? Now, if I can just get my frantic Cramer imitation down pat, I'll be ready for my TV debut.
rich

http://www.miningweekly.co.za/min/news/breaking/?show=62750HEADLINE: SA gold mining in danger of floundering

(Feb 11, miningweekly) -- It was unfair to expect South Africa's deep-level gold mines to continue operating profitably at the current low rand gold prices - and a public-private forum should be opened to debate resources industry solutions, Randgold Resources CEO Mark Bristow suggested to the media in Cape Town yesterday.

Bristow said that ... irrespective of management excellence, it was impossible to continue when the gold price turned against a gold operation.

The absence of the concept of public-private partnership was putting South Africa's gold-industry at risk.

While it was unfair to put the main focus on managements' ability or lack of it in coping with the current low rand gold prices, the decision of some companies to be totally unhedged was also exacerbating the problem.

Gold-mining companies had exposed themselves solely to the gold price by choosing to be unhedged had disregarded the inadvisability of doing this while carrying debt on their balance sheets.

He said that unhedged companies needed to be debt-free equity companies and should not be carrying large debt while being unhedged, a factor that some had overlooked.

Even though shareholders spent a lot of time telling management to get rid of hedging... "When the gold price turns against an unhedged company, the shareholders leave," he recalled. But best practice was for managements to uphold their long-term responsibilities to all their stakeholders, and not just to shareholders, and to stand firm on hedging when they took on debt.

With an openpit operation..., ceasing operations was a far less serious step than South Africa would have in closing deep-level mines that were extremely challenging to reopen.

Because deep-level infrastructure deteriorated so quickly, reopening required redevelopment from scratch at great expense, Bristow warned.

The negative impact of mine closure on employment was a crucial factor that all South Africans needed to take into account.

South Africa continued to have significant gold resources and closure of mines would result in loss of not only reserve classification, but also resource classification, significantly reducing South Africa's national asset base.

That would require some high-level executive decision-making by companies and the government jointly.

In his view there was no sense whatsoever in allowing not only reserves, but also resources to be expunged from the national asset register.

The South African government was in the process of doing what so many other African governments had done before it - becoming the custodian of mineral wealth.

That action had resulted in government becoming the director of South Africa's mineral wealth, resulting in mining no longer becoming a solely profit-driven private-sector pursuit.

Mineral-resource responsibility had become that of South Africa's Department of Minerals and Energy.

It could not very well be the result of State that South African citizens would be kept out of work in the mining industry.

If the State could keep 200 000 people in a job, it would be seen as being in the national interest.

"I am not sure that the correct level of debate is taking place in South Africa," said Bristow.

^------(see url for this full, important article)----^

Lot's of food for thought.

How can South Africa meet its objectives by selective nationalization? In for a penny, in for a pound; it can hardly bring some mines into the national fold without doing likewise for all.

As a diversification-minded investor, you have to assess the inherent risk of nationalization and other controls, and management's operational decisions such as hedging or even "low grading" when prices rise that limit your "participation" in the rising power of gold.

As a minor investor lacking a decisionary stake in operations or politics, given the unknowns, the prudent course of action is to invest in the product -- gold, free and clear -- and leave the risk and worry to the principals.

R.

I read usa gold forum because i no longer trust the media to tell me the truth..tgfi,thank God for the internet!

Opps not 25 words,i read the usa gold forun because i no longer trust the tv media to tell us the truth,nor do i trust the printed media.By the time they tell us to buy anything or warn about any collapse it will be far too late.

$$$$$ $418.20 $$$$$$$

I read the USAGOLD Forum about twice day because the opinion here is worth reading and pondering upon.

Sir Gandalf: I make a motion before the table that Slowman's message # 129089, be stricken from the record as inappropriate, and his price guess be disallowed for not answering in any way the question as asked in the contest rules! ---Rules! --we must have rules.

Slowman tells you right up front:
I'm slow, man.
Technically he has fulfilled the
requirements.
Just because you are politically so
incorrect that you must discriminate
against slow men, and you disagree
with his observation that Another
and FOA have left the forum and
therefore he is only reading twice
a week instead of thrice...I say,
let him be... :-) OvS

Children..Children!!!

http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/nm/20050209/pl_nm/nuclear_iran_bush_dc_1

http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/nm/20050209/pl_nm/nuclear_iran_bush_dc_1


Bush & US$ - must now, know for sure that Iran will strictly price export oil in Euro and in any other barter/currency, of any other nation, other than the US$.

However, Iran is not Iraq, yes, no? Iran has acquired many Russian, Chinese and "Old"-Europe friends. Strangely enough Iran boasts of being a democracy as well. Interesting times
as we witness Rumsfeld groveling around "Old"-Europe & NATO.
Watch - Gold speak (shout) - Cheers "S"

He was talking about Gold Eagle not USAGold.

Or perhaps he is lost.

Lost.

That's it.

Someone send up a flare

I agree - I think he's lost/disorientated! Maybe too much Goldschlagger?

It certainly is not politically correct to enter a contest here and snub your host by announcing that you've left and are reading another forum! Yes - I believe that he's disoriented...he is certainly CALLED to the Table Round for golden clarification...Slowman...where art thou?

Has no one else noticed that he reads ANOTHER web site twice a week - -no refernce to this one! - ha

ROFL !
Having done more than many LURKERS, Sir Slowman has obtained a password and POSTED a message. Sir Slowman, who was very candid about himself, even gave a rather good guess for the POG Contest, AND has not everyone seen that the "necessary" response to the STATEMENT segment of the RULES is broken more often that adequately fulfilled !

Sir Federal_Reserves (2/10/05; 16:42:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 129125)-- may I suggest that you should try for a HIGHER number as that one has been taken!

Sir Smeagol, do you smell a conspiracy brewing ?
Townie -- get the delete button warmed up as there may be a FOODFIGHT !
<;-)

I have examined the patient, Slowman, and I am going to suggest a right frontal bisectomy. I've seen this before. It's a clear case of 'lost in space.'
This is not a problem. Please do the workups and have Dr. Waverider report to the operating room immediately. She's the only one who can handle this.

Dr. F

Dr. Waverider, Dr. Flaccus needs you to report to the operating room immediately. He says that you are the only one who can handle this golden emergency !
<;-)

Poor guy. He just needs to visit USAG more often and he will be up to speed.

Sir Slowman suffers from Bilinkual Directitis.
That is being very direct at the wrong website.
A few Model Negra's should cure him.

Brilliant! No thats Guiness ;0)
Slingshot----------------<>

I've heard that a heavy dose of N2O2 (laughing gas) sometimes helps in these situations.

Iran also has a large, well equipped conventional military in relative terms; perhaps prepared to join their Shia brothers across the way? I do not understand where the neocon leverage is with this crowd. Unfortunately, gold will likely rise hard on the missteps. The US Chiefs of Staff must be very nervous; not unlike Hitler's General Staff as he invaded the Rhineland, Austria and Sudetenland--all the while France could crushed him. However, what could be done then and what can be done now? Follow orders!

Thank you for the consultation of this most interesting patient. I would need to agree with Sir Slingshot's diagnosis of "Bilinkual Directitis". "Lost in Space" is a more severe presentation of the syndrome and, as you've suggested Dr. Flaccus, usually requires more extreme treament such as right frontal bisectomy. At the moment, I don't believe that Sir Slowman exhibits the classical signs that would warrant complete bisectomy. However, I think that if his symptoms do not alleviate fairly promptly, then he may deteriorate rapidly and require either a frontal bisectomy or frontal labotomy. Now, I'm sure that Sir Slowman would respond, "I'd rather have a bottle in front of me than have a frontal labotomy," so in the interest of patient advocacy, I'd follow Sir Slingshots recommendation and treat with Negra Modelo! Failing that, a good whoof of NO2 would suffice before a decision to slice 'n dice, as per Sir Noble1's recommendation. Let's hope that Sir Slowman gets up to speed shortly.

Cavan Man said:

"However, what could be done then and what can be done now? Follow orders!"

My eyes first saw the sunlight in 1945, when I also began to breath the common air. I am not to good at resolving historical problems, as the benefit of hind-sight renders all suggestions for solutions useless. No one trusts any shoulda, coulda or might have solutions anyway. Let us deal with reality. Not optimistic dreams nor pessimistic views, just plain reality of looking at the elephant in the room and being willing to say "hey there is a large elephant in the room". Don't know if it is an optimistic elephant or a pessimistic elephant, but it sure is a big one." How big, they yell?

As to the "following of orders" I don't do that well, I am pleased to say that I am a pacifist and a consciences objector to any war and the killing of my fellow man, women and children any where on God's good earth.

Which in a long way around brings me to my point of simple economics and simple suggestions to problems that have been made to appear complex;

If I can be cut a little slack and be allowed a few 'stretches of the imagination' or just maybe some simple-home spun logic of "good-house-keeping-economics". You know, the kind of conservative economics that includes savings of a fixed percentage of ones income to buy wealth assets, let us say GOLD by example.

The USA just might want to think about paying for the oil it needs, in whatever currency the seller demands. Instead of protecting their fiat paper dollar with WMDs and forcing the use of a very overspent currency, for a resource that it uses far too much of. If you have ever suffered liquidity problems or been near bankruptcy, you will understand the way the USA carries on: Credit infinitum, boasts of its' huge consumption, "we are the engine room of the world's economy", if you don't trade with us where will you get your hard currency (US$). All this is changing.

"ANOTHER" HARD CURRENCY (EURO) IS HERE!! IT WILL ALSO PRICE MY WEALTH ASSET IN AN UNFIXED DIGIT IT WILL BE CALLED FREE GOLD. PAPER DERIVATIVES WILL NOT PRICE MY GOLD, THEY MAY NOT PRICE OIL?

I think it may have something to do with the capitalist system and basic economics; I have something you want, you need it and want to buy it. You must pay me in whatever I demand or there is no deal. However we see a different picture when one trades with the USA for oil up until now. The changes, in my view from here on will be swift and without much control of the levers.

Get as much physical gold as you can afford, before "ANOTHER" starts to rule the central bank reserves or become significant and growing percentage of those stated reserves. How much is unstated?

Just on man's view - Cheers "S"

You folks: Lady Waverider, Flaccus, Gandalf, Noble-- Are crackin' me up with this brain surgery program for the Slowman. On paper--here, that's probably a good idea. In the movie, "One flew over the Cookoo's nest" Jack Nicholson suffered the fait, to correct his behavior.

I felt the post an affront to everyone here, and in particular poor taste while attempting to win the man's Gold! As I looked at the context and wording of the message, I felt the writer had no confusion as to where he was and knew exactly what he said. But, 'nuff said. Carry on with the surgery.

IT WILL NOT PRICE - NOT PRICE MY WEALTH WITH A FIXED DIGIT.
cheers - and I am away "S"

...that we sees as having any merit is, of course, just a breath of fresh Gold... mayhap even Sir Slowman wins, firsst time lucky! Read it again carefully, O mirthful ones... he may have meant exactly what he ssaid, after all:

"I read [that OTHER site] about 2 times a week, mostly because the better posters have left !!!!!!!!!!!!!."

S.

re: Slowfella...That's exactly what I took from it also...Seldom over there so coversely here is where he reads????

I read the USA Gold forum nearly daily and on some days, more often than I really should. The forum has the easiest format to follow, a diverse cast of posters, and a wide variety of subjects introduced--dealing with gold and the economy. The forums rules are generally easy to comply with while posting; the posters usually polite.

http://www.kitcocasey.com/displayArticle.php?id=22Interview with John Embry.

http://business.iafrica.com/news/529106.htm11 Feb 2005 -- Finance minister Trevor Manuel's support for the International Monetary Fund's proposal to sell gold reserves was "worrisome", the National Union of Mineworkers said on Thursday.

The union also said it supported mineral and energy minister, Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka's, opposition to the proposal.

"What the IMF is proposing as a solution to a crisis created by the G7 countries themselves -- countries that continue consuming world resources unabated -- is a recipe for disaster, hunger and disease. It would be wise for other alternatives aimed at eradicating debt to be looked at, instead of this one that will push the poor further into the abyss of poverty."

^------(from url)------^

To help him arrive at his unique supportive position on sales, who has been buttering Trevor's bread?

R.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/images/bloom021005b.gifSouth Afrika : The merger between the two biggies HMG/GF is conditional >>> NO job loses !?
Goldminers can't even rationalise as to remain profitable. The state (political economy) decides on the (strong)rand...(high)employment...(low)profits !

Watch the "gold-dollar-index" chart (link) and think about what Brian Bloom (Australia) wishes to say :
gold-dollar-index = $-POG X USDX/100 >>> Meaning : Is the $-POG rising faster/higher than the declining USD-index ?
On the chart we see Another multi-year Maginot line = 375 (horizontal resistance line) !!!
Today : $416 x 84/100 = 349

But look at the multi year "pattern" of this chart : A perfect saucer bottom, waiting to break through the 375 resistance and signal that the $-POG says byby to the dollar-index (exchange rate).

Up until this happens, goldminers will remain plundered...or...forced to lower the exchange rate of their currency against the almighty dollar. In other words...the dollar forces all currencies to remain a dollar-derivative...THROUGH GOLD MANIPULATION !!!

And here we face the dilemma : What happens to the dollar when the goldprice starts floating, without any strings attached to the $-currency (its exchange rate against all currencies)!?

That's the reason why gold is being re-distributed amongst the non dollar block. As an anticipation on the (coming) dollar/gold break.

More thoughts anyone ? TIA.

Ask Madame Jessica + husband, where they get "the butter" !?
And BTW...Russia bars all foreign companies from bidding for their precious resources ! (There are a few very specific exceptions on this).
It's getting hot and when Iran starts its own "oil-exchange"...might getting hotter !?

http://en.rian.ru/rian/index.cfm?prd_id=160&msg_id=5402103☆trow=1&date=2005-02-11&do_alert=0Sir Belgian, you are amazing...here is a bit on Russia protecting its resources...oil, gas and gold...

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/02/11/business/worldbusiness/11bid.html

Not surprising,given the gowing realisation that oil and gas are going to become ever more critical components in the wellbeing of the "industrial state" in the future...

The Australian Foreign Investment Review Board has given the go-ahead for Xstrata to take over WMC Resources today (very large Olympic Dam mine - copper, uranium and gold). Takeover of Woodside Petroleum was blocked about a year ago. Uranium exports (energy and military applications) are tightly controlled and will be dealt with separately/specifically under the terms of the Xstrata takeover.

We are going to see more of this...nations protecting their assets. I notice Canada has expressed disquiet about the intrusion of Chinese interests into its mining sector...

US plus UK et al. focussing on the ME...the only region capable of supplying their energy requirements in the short to medium term...

:-)

I read the gold forum as often as possible, (which is not as often as I would like or used to) because it brings me all the good news from like minded people with the knowledge of ages shared for all, discussed and argued. The forum still brings daily the hope and belief that one day gold will be unshackled, and as much as this sounds shallow and selfish [:)], I can one day relax and sit back on easy street and enjoy the benefits my savvy investment into the ancient metal of kings shall bring. Good luck to all.

Bear in mind Sir, that the competition (fight) for the control of all these precious resources, is only the very beginning of the story. All these resources will soon *demand* an appropiate counter-value !!! Do you understand now how the euro numeraire and freegold will be experienced as closely associated !? Of course, this takes time to work it out. Note, that J. Rogers, as a commodity viewer, is therefor not allowed to promote gold openly and publicly. That's why he can see gold only as becoming a precious wealth metal when his little daughter retires.
Idem dito for J. Embry (986 post) who isn't bringing the euro and oil into the gold equation, either.

Gold should remain into the "commodity" sphere for the general public, whilst many know very well that gold is on the verge of playing its original wealth role, once again.
All CBs are been thrown in the same anti-gold bin ! What a terrible mistake.
I remain convinced that all CBs know very well what they are specifically doing and why they are doing it.
Gold as wealth, is too powerful to bring it transparently in the open to the public ! Simple, no ?

I think you owe Myself and Sir Smeagol and all those south of his contest guess a thank you for putting the hex on the Gold Short crowd (smile)...Glad we could help...YGM

http://www.usagold.com/gold/special/grp.html

http://www.reuters.com/financeMarketReportArticle.jhtml;ZPOCAZ5UWCPTOCRBAE0CFEY?type=goldMktRptsnip:

NEW YORK, Feb 11 (Reuters) - U.S. silver futures shot to their loftiest in two months on Friday and gold traded at eight-day highs, as a softer dollar late this week catapulted the metals up through technical resistance, dealers said.

"It was short covering, and there was fund buying overnight that pushed this thing up," said a silver floor broker. "And the trade is helping it along. It just snowballed."

By 11:05 a.m. (1605 GMT), silver for March delivery had surged 24.5 cents, or 3.5 percent, to $7.21 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange's COMEX division. It moved from $6.945 to $7.24 -- its priciest since Dec. 8. The market rose 37.5 cents on Thursday.

Spot silver hit $7.16/19, way above Thursday's late New York quote at $6.93/96. Friday's London fix was at $6.98.

The gray metal extended its rally because, unlike in the gold market, players did not currently see central bank selling in the market, which allowed it to rise almost untethered, said one analyst.

"We've seen a technical break to the upside in silver, and that is because we don't see central bank selling in the silver market," said Ian MacDonald, managing director of precious metals at International Asset Holding Corp."

-Goldilox

No CB action to "hold" silver down. "The media is the message!" However, gold seems to be straining at its dollar tether, as well.


Gandalf, release the hounds!

http://www.usagold.com/gold-coins.htmlNEW YORK, Feb 11 (Reuters) -

"The dollar is whipping around and still very much in a trading range," said Ian MacDonald, managing director of precious metals at International Assets Holding Corp. "The market is trying to decide which is the weaker of the currencies -- the dollar or the euro? Or, is it the yen?

"Technically and fundamentally, gold is looking good," MacDonald added. "It is very cheap in foreign currency terms. If you look at gold in the euro or the Indian rupee, it's a basic fire sale. So, there is your floor. I do see the market moving higher."

^------(end of excerpt)-----^

This week was certainly the safest of times for vested interests to briefly dunk gold to its recent lows because much of Asia was on holiday ("Chinese dealers were mostly absent and markets were closed in Hong Kong, Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore") thus limiting the potential for physical offtake to capitalize upon the pricing bargains.

Without a holiday as an excuse, were you immobilized like a deer in the headlights, or did you boldly charge in, knowing a bargain when you see it?

Call USAGOLD-Centennial for a helpful consultation on portfolio diversification today. Ask about krugerrands. Ask about Swiss 20 franc gold coins.

1-800-869-5115

R.

http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.html

Get the Legendary SECURITY of a Swiss Account...

...Delivered to Your Door.

Call USAGOLD - Centennial for Arrangements
1-800-869-5115

http://www.usagold.com/cpm/abcs.htmlDid you know that those pesky incidental expenses associated with your gold investment (such as shipping, bankwire fee, or safe-deposit box fees) can all be factored in as part of your investment's "cost basis", and are subsequently recoverable against profits as an untaxable element?

Many people don't know that, but now you do.

Similarly, your purchase of investment aids (such as "The ABCs of Gold Investing" book, second edition) are also expensible and therefore untaxed against investment gains.

Unlike real estate, there's no annual property taxed assessed while you hold gold, and neither are you burdened with mowing lawns, removing snow, or repairing roofs.

What are you waiting for? Choose gold. It's as easy as a toll free phone call to Denver.

1-800-869-5115

R.

http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.htmlComplete the form and Jill will drop one in the mail for you early next week.

R.

Policies in place to cut US trade gap--US' Taylor
Fri Feb 11, 2005 01:00 PM ET
PALO ALTO, Calif., Feb 11 (Reuters) - Policymakers around the world are taking steps that should cut any risk stemming from global trade imbalances, a senior U.S. Treasury official said on Friday.
"I think there's a policy in place that is dealing with this," U.S. Treasury Under Secretary for International Affairs John Taylor told an economics conference sponsored by the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.

"There's basically a three-part approach to dealing with it, trying to contain any risk that may be there," he said. Taylor cited efforts in the United States to cut government budget deficits and spur private savings, efforts overseas to spur growth and efforts by China to move toward greater exchange rate flexibility.



> This is the same group that all the while the dollar
> dropped claimed its policy was for a strong dollar.
> Treasury speak with forked tongue? And Greenspan
> the lame duck, seems to agree, and also provides
> support. Actions do speak louder than words though.

One wonders how the federal government can float the idea of cutting budget deficits when only a few short breaths ago it said that, as the Social Security system is revamped and future pay-ins will be allowed to flow instead to private accounts, the government will endeavor to meet the payment obligations during this time of reduced inflow through borrowing $-trillions.

R.

POG CONTEST UPDATE as of 2/11/05, Friday at HIGH NOON Denver time !

Entries listed in order of decending values !
-------

$$$$8,752.0$$$$ The Invisible Hand (2/9/05; 17:15:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 129072)

$$$$ $488.5 $$$$ Merlinsen (2/8/05; 10:00:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 129004)

$$$$ $454.7 $$$$ Moegold (2/8/05; 14:03:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 129019)

$$$$ $444.4 $$$$ Beamer (2/9/05; 01:35:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 129036)

$$$$ $434.1 $$$$ mackattack (2/10/05; 16:14:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 129123)

$$$$ $432.2 $$$$ madmark (2/9/05; 11:12:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 129051)

$$$$ $432.0 $$$$ spikedog (02/04/05; 22:50:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 128898)

$$$$ $431.1 $$$$ Rimh (2/10/05; 14:57:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 129118)

$$$$ $429.9 $$$$ Gandalf the White (02/04/05; 11:27:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 128871)

$$$$ $426.8 $$$$ The Hoople (2/10/05; 07:55:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 129093)

$$$$ $426.5 $$$$ Sundeck (02/04/05; 17:10:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 128888)

$$$$ $426.0 $$$$ Topaz (02/04/05; 16:52:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 128886)

$$$$ $424.2 $$$$ lifer (02/04/05; 15:22:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 128883)

$$$$ $422.3 $$$$ slingshot (02/04/05; 15:35:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 128885)

$$$$ $421.0 $$$$ Gondolin (2/11/05; 04:42:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 129154)

$$$$ $420.0 $$$$ Lothar of the Hill People (2/10/05; 10:19:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 129102)

$$$$ $419.8 $$$$ servantHeart (2/10/05; 10:36:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 129104)

$$$$ $418.2 $$$$ Slowman (2/10/05; 05:21:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 129089)

$$$$ $417.5 $$$$ Goldendome (2/11/05; 00:29:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 129148)

$$$$ $415.9 $$$$ Smeagol (02/05/05; 15:44:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 128925)

$$$$ $412.1 $$$$ pilgrims_gold (2/9/05; 12:33:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 129055)

$$$$ $409.0 $$$$ YGM (02/08/05; 04:06:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 128999)

$$$$ $408.1 $$$$ Henri (2/9/05; 08:02:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 129041)

$$$$ $407.1 $$$$ 2023 (2/6/05; 23:18:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 128961)

$$$$ $405.6 $$$$ Chally (2/8/05; 23:34:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 129034)

$$$$ $400.0 $$$$ DryWasher (2/8/05; 10:57:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 129009)

$$$$ $398.0 $$$$ DoubleEagle (02/08/05; 01:09:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 128998)

$$$$ $361.0 $$$$ Sprout (2/10/05; 07:09:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 129092)



=====

AND -- In case you missed the CALL TO CONTEST ----

Gandalf the White (02/04/05; 10:53:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 128869)
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ A "PRICE of GOLD" GUESSING CONTEST!! $$$$$$$$$$$$

We shall have a price guessing contest on the closing (Settlement price) of gold for the April COMEX contract (GCJ05) on Wednesday, February 16, 2005, ---BUT all entries must be posted to the TableRound before Midnight on Sunday, February 13th.

The "Price of Gold" (POG) Contest winner -- the person with the closest price guess to the actual Settlement Price -- will receive a nineteenth Century 20 Lira Italian Umberto I coin, (which may be seen at the following LINK).
http://www.usagold.com/gold/coins/ItalyUmb.html
These coins were Minted between 1880 - 1897 with a Fineness of 0.900, which therefore contains an "Actual Gold Content" of 0.1867 net fine troy ounces of pure GOLD !

There will be also be two runners-up prizes for the next closest prognostications --- each winning an one ounce U.S. Silver Eagle.

THE RULES -- (We MUST have RULES !!) --- PLEASE READ !!

1) The Winner is the poster with the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX (most active) April 2005 Gold Contract (GCJ05) on the date of Wednesday, February 16, 2005.

3) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $421.0)

4) "Guesses" shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT BOX location AND enclosed in markers of "Dollar Signs" so as to be OFFICIAL !
(Such as $$$$$ $421.0 $$$$$$$ )

5) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! "FIRST COME" has rights to that "Guess".

6) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes MIDNIGHT (24:00) on Sunday, February 13, 2005.

7) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY--- (as this part MUST accompany the Price prognostication)
--- In order for your entry to be valid, entries will be REQUIRED to answer the DIFFICULT and controversial subject by "Determining and COMPLETING the following statement": <;-)

I read the USAGOLD Forum ( how often? ) because ------ (in 25 words or more!).

--
LET the CONTEST continue !
===
"COME ON IN" all you Lurkers ! Now is the time to get your Posting Code from the TownCrier at the Link at the top of this PAGE !
---
AND ONLY Sir Federal_Reserves needs to RE-ENTER his prognostication ! <;-)

http://money.iwon.com/jsp/nw/nwdt_rt_top.jsp?cat=TOPBIZ&src=704&feed=dji§ion=news≠ws_id=dji-00072820050211&date=20050211&alias=/alias/money/cm/nwHEADLINE: Activists Aim To Keep 'Dirty Gold' Out Of Valentine's Day

DENVER (Dow Jones)--All that glitters is not gold, say environmental and social activists who aim to raise awareness about "dirty" mining practices this Valentine's Day.

Valentine's Day is the No. 1 holiday for gold sales in the U.S., so it's the best time to let people know about irresponsible mining practices, said Payal Sampat, co-director of the "No Dirty Gold" campaign.

The campaign was launched on Valentine's Day a year ago, when Earthworks, an environmental group, Oxfam America and others teamed up with jewelry retailers, including Tiffany & Co., to get the word out about what they say are irresponsible mining practices.

One of the companies targeted in the campaign is Newmont Mining Corp., Denver, the world's largest gold producer. The campaigners oppose Newmont's submarine tailings disposal at its mining operations in Indonesia.

But Newmont, the recent target of several environmental protests globally, said it "strives to maintain a high level of environmental protection" at all of its operations, said spokesman Doug Hock.

"The use of subsea tailing placement was selected by the Indonesian government as a preferred alternative to land-based tailing management, given the region's high seismic activity, high level of rainfall and a limited amount of arable land," Hock said.

....her group is not trying to stop people from buying gold.

"The campaign is not a boycott - it's trying to shake up the way the gold industry works both on the mining side and the retail side," Sampat said.

^------(from url)----^

As new mines become more and more difficult to permit due to green opposition, gold that is already above ground will become dearer and dearer in price as would-be savers are left competing for available and recycled supply.

I have no doubt, however, that these environmentalists would have you believe that the alternative of PAPER gold is NOT dirty. Sure, it may be 'clean' environmentally, but socially it is not. The hands of its managers are stained with the blood, sweat, tears, and oppression of millions of aching and broken bodies yearning for a more level playing field throughout the world.

R.

http://www.iran-daily.com/1383/2212/html/ieconomy.htmHEADLINE: Foreign Firms Barred from Key Russian Tenders

MOSCOW, Feb. 11--Russia will bar foreign-owned firms from bidding for some of its most lucrative natural resources in 2005, officials said on Thursday...

The Natural Resources Ministry said companies will have to be at least 51 percent Russian-owned to take part in tenders for strategic oil and metals deposits.

The tender list includes the giant Sakhalin-3 oil field in Russia's far east, which US ExxonMobil had planned to develop.

It includes the Sukhoi Log gold field -- Eurasia's biggest...

The decision comes at a time when the Kremlin is seeking to reassert state control over strategically important sectors...

Analysts said the move was largely predictable as most countries tend to be protective when it comes to auctioning off big slices of their natural resources.
^-------(from url, near top)------^

HEADLINE: ECB Urged Not to Raise Rates

FRANKFURT, Germany, Feb. 11--The managing director of the International Monetary Fund, Rodrigo Rato, called on the European Central Bank Friday not to raise its key interest rates at a time when the guardian of the euro appears increasingly concerned about inflationary dangers in the eurozone, AFP reported.
^-------(from url, bottom)-----^

See also yesterday's posting about South African gold.

Get yours while the getting's good.

R.

Maybe we should direct them to the massive number of trees being cut to satisfy AG's printing press and all that paper gold?

Seriously, though, what a misguided and broad-brush attack. I sent them an email expressing my disagreement with their tactics and their text. Why dirty gold? Why not dirty coal mining or zinc mining, etc.?

In reading some of their material at their website, they had the audacity to finger mining in many poor countries as a cause of corruption instead of the governments. By extension, are all other businesses in those places also responsible for the corruption? What a load of baloney! Most of the report was snippits of information from localized situations and applied to the industry as a whole; they completely ignored those who work hard at setting standards of environmental protection and social responsibility at or above North American levels, much less local government standards.

Of course, as we have discussed before, Townie, it is part and parcel of the efforts to undermine gold at a time when most people have little understanding of it's real value and worth. And in the final analysis, it won't change the ultimate repricing of not only gold, but all commdities which are in limited supply. It's just another smear campaign. But we will not be so easily fooled.....

http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Daily Gold Market Report has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.

Friday Market Excerpts

COMEX gold hit a nine-day high, fueled by speculative fund buying due to a softer dollar late this week, dealers said.

Gold gained, drawing support from its bounce from $412 support previously and from apparent U.S. opposition to proposed sales of gold held by the International Monetary Fund to finance Third World debt relief, said analysts.

April gold climbed $3.30 to close at $422, trading from $417.70 to $423.40 -- its highest close since Feb. 2. Currencies mostly would dictate further direction in gold, dealers said, though geopolitical concerns also supported it.

"With the risk of further escalation in the tensions between Iran, North Korea and the U.S. over the weekend, traders are unlikely to go home short," Moore said.

Trade in gold has been thinned this week by the Lunar New Year and the Tokyo Commodity Exchange's closure on Friday for a national holiday.

----(see url for full news, 24-hr newswire)----

http://p088.ezboard.com/fdownstreamventurespetroleummarkets.showMessage?topicID=11209.topic
The above link is well worth reading in my opinion. I even printed out a couple of copies (about ten pages) for friends who have trouble grasping what the future holds for us all when I try to describe it to them.

Snips:

"Unrestricted War: China's Master Plan to Destroy America is a treatise for world domination written in 1999 by People's Liberation Army Colonels Qiao Liang and Wang Xiangsui. In order for China to become a dominant global power over the United States, the PLA emphasizes "The Final War over Resources", must be won."

"I hate to admit it, but the Chinese have done a masterful job. While America's media is hypnotizing us with frivolous entertainment such as American Idol or The Amazing Race, they are totally ignoring the perilous economic time bomb the Chinese have placed against us. The Government of China is holding U.S. currency and Treasury notes in a $1.9 trillion Treasury bond trap. When they pull the trigger on their "primary weapon," the dollar will crash and gold will break $600 in a heart beat and just keep going."

"The Chinese have the United States in a dollar and Treasury note trap which could put the economy in a tail spin with one news announcement that they are no longer buyers of U.S. debt."

End Snips:

DryWasher comment:
Whether one accepts Ridley's view that China is out to to defeat the United States, or if one sees it as China just looking out for it's own best interests, it probably doesn't make a lot of difference in the way it will all play out in the end in my opinion.
We must also remember that China and the U.S. are not the only major players involved, which further complicates matters. Interesting times ahead indeed.

DryWasher.

http://www.voanews.com/english/2005-02-11-voa21.cfmPhnom Penh, 11 February 2005 -- The World Bank called on Cambodia this week to drastically curb corruption, or face isolation from the world's free trade markets.� The country may have begun to put its house in order.

World Bank President James Wolfensohn says the three greatest obstacles to Cambodia's growth are "corruption, corruption, corruption."

According to a World Bank survey, as much as one-quarter to one-third of a foreign investor's profits in Cambodia are being siphoned off by corruption that takes place at all levels of economic activity.

^-----(from url)------^

Is it really so hard to understand why so many individuals around the world trust only physical gold as the means to maintain their accummulated wealth -- savings?

R.

Simple conclusion : Please, support the dollar.
That's why today the has risen : $-POG x USDX/100 is up. The goldprice rises more than the dollar declines.

On the basis of this gold-dollar-index, I think we can draw one very specific line in the sand. The dots that form the line :
- USDX = 80
- $-POG = $ 435
- �-POG + 350 �
- �/$ = 1,35
IMVHO, the dollar, through the IMF, is asking the ECB to take this line into consideration and support the dollar as to not cross this line !?

Add the IMF-gold hulabaloo to this and conclude that the �-$ competition is fierce. No substantional goldprice decline is allowed anymore. And the euro wishes to cooperate on the orderly unwinding. The dollar is admitting its weakness.

Anyone with another interpretation ?

I read the USAGOLD Forum occasionally because the information that I read on this board I hope will give me a better understanding on how gold is manipulated. There is so much information posted on here that not only deals with gold, but also silver, mining stocks, and how government policies effect the markets. Also some of the post can be quite humorous at times.

http://www.iii.co.uk/news/?type=afxnews&articleid=5209732⊂ject=economic∾tion=articlePALO ALTO, Calif. (AFX) -

..."Now is the time, while the global economy is performing well, to take measures that will further improve the flexibility and adaptability of the economy going forward," Anne Krueger, first deputy managing director of the International Monetary Fund, told a conference at Stanford University's Institute for Economic Policy Research. "It really does make sense to fix the roof when the sun is shining."

Krueger and John Taylor, the U.S. Treasury's undersecretary for international affairs, told the audience the world economy faces serious risks. The U.S. current-account deficit, which topped $600 billion last year, is a chief concern, they said.

Other risks include heavy debt in emerging markets, political uncertainty in the Middle East related to the Iraq War, and volatile oil prices.

"There will be another global economic downturn but we cannot know when. The challenge is to be as well prepared as possible," she said. "This is not the time for policy makers to relax their guard."

Taylor said the world economic picture had rarely been so rosy, but said that isn't a reason for complacency. "Right now you can't find one recession in the entire world economy," Taylor said. "If you look around in terms of financial crises, we don't see a major financial crisis anywhere."

But he acknowledged the U.S. trade deficit was a problem.

The first element is to increase savings in the U.S....

"I would be very happy if every economy in the world grew faster than the U.S. economy," Taylor said.

^----(from url)----^

Choose gold while "the sun is shining". It's usually more affordable that way.

R.

$$$$$421.5$$$$$
Why do I lurk and occasionally post?
The learned people here and their candor attract my attention daily
and as a result I always feel a little better informed with the
time spent here.
I spend about 3 hours a day on the net, always seaching for
information re investments or political knowledge and
this is one site where my time is not wasted.
Other sites, I find infested with smut or lowends who are attempting to raise their egos by put downs or wisecracks.
This site is a little like the WSJ the CBC and the BBC all rolled into one.
Balzac

Cfr. "I would be very happy if every economy in the world grew faster than the U.S. economy," Taylor said.

Implied in that statement for "growth" is his wish for a goodly amount of nominal price inflation in these other quarters such that the dollar doesn't appear so uniquely and obviously the weak sister among the various currencies.

R.

International Social activist organisations are (unfortunately) useful naives (idiots) who don't want to know, how and by who, they are being manipulated (infiltrated) !
We knew that these "dirty gold" campaigns would come (have follow ups). It was written into the stars.
One should not be surprised. Give them a compassionate smile.
Look who's *behind* Mister Gordon Brown and ask yourself...WHY the clean precious IMF metal !? But don't worry...be happy.

Day after day,...after day...I smell roses, when hearing all those astute talkers ! BUT I SEE NO ROSES ! And it is not that I don't want to see roses...I just love these flowers.
We are being ridiculed on a massive scale ! There is no crisis...

After working for wire houses for over 43 years, I have found that the real intelligent information is only found at this wonderful table. I religiously read the forum daily and have done so for several years. This is however my first post.

Keep up the good work.

I read the USAGOLD Forum because it is one of these few forums where discussions about gold often touch the heart of the macro≥o financial&political spectrum and where people still manage to have a broad and clear bird perspective instead of the mainstream rubbish we have to deal with from these narrow-minded frogs with ditto perspective.

could you please e-mail me because for quite some time now I am unable to reach you on your planet harmony.

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BBAD1953D%2D42A5%2D46FB%2DBB24%2D3C9F5AF64748%7D&siteid=mktw
Snippit:

"For now, we'll just have to be patient and see if this rally off Wednesday's low is for real," said Dale Doelling, chief market technician with Trends In Commodities. "The short-term technical picture has improved significantly for both gold and silver," Doelling said.

"If the dollar now resumes its drop, we may see gold rally significantly as investors may look at this as the end of the dollar correction and the start of the next leg down," said Kevin Kerr of Kerr Trading International.

Charlie Nedoss of Peak Trading Group was more circumspect. "Gold appears to be making time and consolidating," he said. "The dollar has bounced a little."


Black Blade: As traders reevaluated the recent Greenspan speech they realized the fuzzy warm feelings they had and what they apparently heard were simply auditory hallucinations. As a result the US dollar turned tail and dipped lower. Long term of course the US dollar will inevitably fall much lower as the twin deficits weigh heavily and the US currency seeks fair value against foreign currencies. A daunting task given that all currencies remain grossly overvalued and the continuing "currency war"/"competitive currency devaluation" wreaks havoc in global currency markets. The only currency to have under these circumstances is obviously the precious metals. We can afford to sit out the currency gaming and silently accumulate Gold and Silver "portfolio insurance" for that day of reckoning.

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml;jsessionid=HTJ2WOXRI4J0YCRBAEOCFFA?type=topNews&storyID=7607178
Snippit:

"With gold and the base metals looking steady for the moment, and the dollar on a weaker footing, it seems silver could extend its gains in coming sessions," James Moore of the BullionDesk.com said.

Geopolitical concerns additionally underpinned gold as a traditional safe-haven investment.

"With the risk of further escalation in the tensions between Iran, North Korea and the U.S. over the weekend, traders are unlikely to go home short," Moore said.


Black Blade: Ah yes, I would be remiss not to point out that the geopolitical side of the equation once again rears its ugly head. N. Korea and Iran, two of the remaining so-called "Axis of Evil" members bring the nuclear threat to mind. A little destabilising to the markets...

****$424.30****

I read the USA Gold forum daily because the open attitudes of the participants in viewing and analyzing the unfolding events in the financial arena.

OK, Townie, as we are now in "Open Forum", I'll bite.

Your statement, "I have no doubt, however, that these environmentalists would have you believe that the alternative of PAPER gold is NOT dirty. Sure, it may be 'clean' environmentally, but socially it is not. . . "

although I suspect a modicum of sarcasm, is followed by a rather lop-sided indictment of environmentally active groups.

1) I'm not aware of any environmental movements who have not taken paper producers to much greater task than even miners, as evidenced by the anti-deforestation programs. Thoughtless release of toxins like cyanide into water supplies deserves very close scrutiny.

2) IMHO, it is irresponsible to lump all environmentally concerned people with those who would spike trees, burn oil facilities, etc. If one must be lumped into movements labeled "radical" in order to be environmentally conscious of our actions, our society may be doomed to drown in its own technological feces.

3) As an example, an area I posted on months back is coming to light once again. Myopia in the energy patch that focuses on oil, oil, oil, deliberately defocuses a number of legitimate technologies, which although they might not individually replace oil-based technology, could very likely ease the pressure to obtain oil at ANY cost, be it financial or the lives of its citizenry. Once a popular government gets overwhelmingly staffed by a single industry (oil), as appears to have happened in the current US administration, the opportunity to utilize anything resembling alternative technological development and/or diplomacy for issue resolution is ultimately suppressed. Just how much is the suppression of gold and other monetary commodities a direct result of the equation:

oil=power?

And in essence, how much does that suppression bleed over to all forms of social, economic, and educational expression just to cement the ultimate control of TPTB?

After all, a CU professor may potentially lose his job for suggesting that the 911 attack was directed at the exact "socially dirty" entity you described in your post.

I have been trying to find if there is any truth for gold to go up in price when a market melt-down occurs. Two occurrences of market melt-down in my short investing history is October black Monday, 1987 and the internet bubble top in March 2004. Both events did not result in any parabolic spike in the POG. In fact the price of gold declined with the market.

Many pro-gold article writers are touting gold as the ultimate investment to protect oneself from the next melt-down and that price should spike above all other asset class.

I like to believe that, but I need proof.

Will gold help me preserve my wealth or is cash still king, especially if we get a market melt-down just around the corner?

@ collies-99

It is an oversimplification to try to calculate exact correlations between the DOW industrials and the price of gold (POG) on the Comex.

Much analytical energy has been expended in this conondrum. By and large, although the POG might also fall during large deflationatry events like a SM "correction", typically, the percentage decline is less drastic. Many explain this with the simple analogy that although individual stocks often go to zero value, gold never has gone to zero.

Rather than looking at individual events, you may find a better representation in examining the long-term fluctuations.

Gold has only occasionally offered its owners windfall profits, but has often protected them from the ravages of horrific losses, especially when the loss is incurred by an inflationary currency catastrophe, such as 1930's Germany or 2002 Argentina, to name just two examples.

.....a good piece of wit, cynicism, and reality (check)...

Poor Carly Fiorina...poor Bernie Ebbers....

America's great captains of industry seem to be hitting some shoals.

"You know [these one-shots] that we are doing is kind of crazy," said Scott Sullivan, CFO of Bernie Ebbers' telecom company. "We are going to dig ourselves into a deep hole because it is disguising what is going on."

But disguising what is going on is the name of the game in America's late, degenerate capitalism. You get your name in the paper by ginning up mergers and acquisitions. You build up mountains of debt. And you crunch the numbers into such grotesque and unnatural shapes that even their own mothers wouldn't recognize them. The company itself suffers. Real investors, who actually understand what is going on, are appalled. But the little guys who get their information from the newspapers and their emotions from television love it. Growth! Expansion! Technology! We're all going to get rich....

It's a shame about the way these things turn out. The top execs and insiders look out for themselves. Unless they are forced to do the perp walk in public, they usually sell out their options in good time...and take their filthy lucre down to Florida, where they build a big house on the beach.

Carly got a cool 1.5 million shares of HP stock when she signed up in 1999. They were worth $65 million at the time. Plus, she was given a sign-up bonus of $3 million...to which was added many extravagant paychecks, including a severance package worth another $21 million. She was paid as though she were a movie or sports star, which of course is exactly what she what she was. She was paid to "wow" the lumps...not to build a good business. Now, she'll probably get a fat contract to write a book and make millions more providing inspiration for other hustlers.

Bernie Ebbers is in a worse jam. The federales have accused him of intentionally misleading investors - by reporting funny numbers to Wall Street.

But funny numbers are just what everyone wants. And if the feds are going to get upset about a few odd-looking ciphers in the private sector, they better not look very closely at their own figures. George W. Bush's budget must be one of the most intentionally misleading compilations ever attempted. It assumes spending cuts that almost certainly won't happen...and revenue growth this is extremely unlikely. Plus, it ignores billions of dollars worth of military and police expenses...for no other reason than that it would be inconvenient to mention them.

Mathematically, the budget is comic. Politically, it is conniving. Morally, it is probably closer to a venal sin, rather than a cardinal one. Legally, it is a fraud.

Yesterday, the financial markets had time to look at the president's new budget in detail, and to reflect on it. They decided that it was a sham, as we thought they might. The dollar sold off. Bonds sank. And gold? Gold rose. Whether this marks the beginning of a new short-term trend or not, we don't know. But we still believe it is in keeping with a long one.

@ Goldilox

Do you have perhaps favor that bonds are a better vehicle for investment and also for safety during such events as a market meltdown?

I have been able to correlate that the 10 year rate decline during those times when a market meltdown occurred. This then implies that bond value increased and may actually be the vehicle to preserve one's wealth better than gold, for the next melt-down.

Please post often now !
<;-)

I would not be one to ask about bonds, as I am not interested in that market. They might correlate well during a SM crash, but I suppose it depends on what other financial events accompany that crash.

The UST has already called some of the higher interest rate bonds, efectively ending their value as an inflationary protective device.

As most of the posters here would echo, a predetermined private investment in a PM stash also protects one in climates where the "gov't" sponsored protections might falter.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$HUI,uu[h,a]daoayiay[pb200!f][vc60][iut!Uh89,21!Lp88,21,3]⪯f=Gare going to be UP for the POG !!
That is only my opinion, of course.
<;-)

http://www.futuresource.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=GC&o=DJY&a=M&z=610x300&d=LOW&b=LINE&st=And the FEEL of the YELLOW is far better that Bankster PAPER.
<;-)

COMEX Gold Apr '05 Contract GCJ05
Open = $418.8 HIGH = $423.4 low = $417.7
SETTLEMENT = $422.0 Change = +$3.3
<;-)

I am still unsure and the answer for investing in gold isn't that simple:

Here is the scenario, I am expecting the DOW to top above the Dec high +10,850 and will likely approach 11,000, that is almost a sure thing by the way price patterns are evolving. Once that occurs a series of market decline will ensue that will take the DOW to level below the 2002 lows, back to +7000. The market will initially react to the decline as a normal pull-back in an on-going bull market, but it gets much worse than most thought.

Where about in the DOW's decline will people start to worry about value and convert those paper securities into cash or maybe even gold ? Preservation of capital at its best, as the fear of losing more sets in. If gold is the best choice then post 2000-2001, we should have seen gold rise tremendously, but it didn't.

Gold's valuation has a direct link to the US dollar, inverse correlation, well documented. Gold started gopin up when the USD started to decline. But during the next decline gold may also be declining as it is not a guarantee that gold will go up when markets go down. But what of the demand for bond as the market tanks? Gold and bond are seen as safe heaven, but cash is king.

In taking the view that much of billions if not trillion in the stock market will be converted in bonds, that should create a demand for the currency at which the bonds are denominated, mostly the USD resulting in a rise in the dollar value.

What of gold then as a hedge for safety, its line with the USD will surely cause gold's price to decline and not rise and demand for bond grow.

I think we all must make this decision before March 21, which is when I expect the DOW to top. March 21 is a turn date as calculated by Robert McHugh. The market is following anticipated pattern and the outcome is a surety.

Is gold the best store of wealth going forward post another market crash in 2005?

Is gold a sure thing ? Order some and hold the precious metal in your hand and look at it.

You seem pretty sure about the Dow's behavior...why do you doubt about a wealth metal in "your" hand ?

How many people are aware that "cash" is permanently eroded through loss of exchange rate + purchasing power ?

What if the Dow isn't (initially) "crashing"... because it is the dollar that crashes ? Dow stays the same but the $-currency becomes worthless ?

If people rush to $-bonds...the IRs will even decline more.
If this would result in a strengthening dollar...the US deficits would increase much faster and make the $-currency less credible as the world's reserve currency. What is the net gain of having a crashing stockmarket and an expanding bond volume ? Will foreigners keep on subsidizing the US deficits ?

Whatever the markets will do...IT IS THE DOLLAR THAT IS CONSTANTLY LOSING CREDIBILITY AND THAT'S WHY GOLD WILL GAIN IN CREDIBILITY. Goldmetal IN YOUR HAND is as sure as one can get.

$$$$$428.50$$$$$$$$$
I read the USA GOLD forum three times a day to gain the invaluable insight put forth by the knowledgeable posters with regards to the GOLD market and current economic affairs, to pick up the monthly deals on hard to acquire GOLD coins presented by our host, and to check in to see if ANOTHER or FOA have returned to expound their thoughts regarding the current affairs in the GOLD and currency markets that will shape my family's and the world's future.
P.S.: SORRY, MY REASONS ARE HARD TO COMMUNICATE WITH/IN JUST 25 WORDS!

http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2005/2/12/business/10139361&sec=businessSnip:

"...

LONDON: Disappointing oil output growth outside the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) is threatening to put world supplies under renewed strain this year, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said.

The international adviser on energy policy to industrialised nations has cut its forecast for non-Opec supply growth by 175,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 910,000 bpd, pointing to prolonged disruptions in Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) producers and lower expectations for Russia.

Slower growth outside Opec would hand a greater role to the cartel in supplying the rapidly expanding 84 million bpd world oil market.

"Non-Opec production growth is expected to slow to 0.9 million bpd in 2005, leading to a tightening of the market from initial forecasts," the IEA said in its monthly Oil Market Report.

..."

Sundeck: Ahhh...yes, difficult to see the price of oil falling anytime soon...what with pressure on supply from several quarters and the US dollar smelling like a sunbaked sprat.

Goldilox #129186, you are right in emphasising the urgency to move toward varied technologies to meet energy needs, and this is happening in many places. But the shear scale of the problems associated with:

(a) transitioning from or adapting existing infrastructure,
(b) recasting social behaviour and expectations, and
(c) the (reactive) power of the oil (and coal) lobby acting against change,

are truly daunting.

One thing is certain...the change away from oil will come...sooner or later...benignly or violently...via "market forces" or social upheaval...

84 million barrels per day...that is a flaming ring of oil barrels, shoulder-to-shoulder, stretching around the world...burning every day...an awsome spectacle in the in the "onion-skin thin" biosphere...

:-)

http://www.newkerala.com/news-daily/news/features.php?action=fullnews&id=70959Snip:

"...
Putin orders early repayment of Russia's foreign debt:
[World News]: Moscow, Feb 11 : President Vladimir Putin today issued orders for early repayment of Russia's USD 115 billion foreign debt accumulated by his predecessors.

"The economic expediency to settle it as quickly as possible is obvious," Putin told Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin in a televised Kremlin meeting.

Russia assumed obligations on the debt of the former Soviet Union, and received several loans in the 1990s under Putin's predecessor Boris Yeltsin.

"It's a very expensive debt, the cost of servicing is three to four times higher than in G-7 countries", Kudrin said.

Russia has to spend 7 to 13 per cent for servicing the USD 115 billion debt.

...."

Sundeck: Is it "obvious" because of the high interest rate, or are there other reasons?

Greenspan turned a financial bubble into an economic bubble !!!

How is the " de-bubbling " going to look like ? Taking into account that the great masses even never "realized" they were in a financial/economic bubble...and how BIG the entire bubble actually is. Everything is so easely taken for granted.

But it is only an extremely tiny minority that is holding the bulk of all the profits that were made.
The whole world remains focused on the US, simply because of "the dollar" being the world's major currency. That's why the question about the dollar's credibility has become of utmost importance. Something, Americans never had to consider ever before.

I don't see the US (and the world) un-bubbling without any fundamental changes to the dollar-system. Maybe because I have a very bad feeling about the true "nature" of the mega bubble. W've come to the point where the existing bubble cannot be inflated or deflated, without shocking consequences for the one and only thing that has been and still is "underpinning" this bubble >>> THE DOLLAR !

More precisely, the EVER "softening" dollar, through its tremendous over-expansion, worldwide. A "Trillion" affair !

People do demand visible/tangible evidence for accepting any theory. All want to see "crashes" before any action is to be taken. Again and again, only a very little minority anticipates with appropiate (correct) action. Cfr. collies-99's (gold)question, wich we are all asking ourselves, constantly.

As an Eurolander, I'm freed from the dollar's credibility question (currency wise), since the existance of the euro. I'm holding all of my wealth-savings in goldmetal because
the final break up of the dollar's credibility will bring dramatic changes to gold.
Outside America and Euroland, many are already "experiencing" the declining credibility of the dollar. They all are getting less and less for the green paper/digit. The US has been exporting so many forms of "inflation" outside its borders. But one has to travel to experience it in practice as evidence for the written theories.

I don't see how the US can keep or improve the dollar's credibility for non Americans ? Any suggestions why I have it wrong ?

I read the USAGOLD Forum at least once a week and (would be much often when the POG contest is opening) because I am a best lurker, I learned much from the egg heads of here, sometimes, I may also practice English here. Of course the main reason is USEGOLD provides usto have chance to win the Gold coins, LOL!

http://news.scotsman.com/index.cfm?id=161372005Snip:
A massive protest march has been organised for the capital for 2 July, the weekend before the G8 gathering on 6 to 8 July. Police had hoped that the march might help dissipate some of the protests planned for the following week in Perthshire, but organisers of the main protest have planned a series of rallies at Faslane, Dungavel and Edinburgh, which will turn the demonstration into a week-long event, leading up to the summit itself.

We will never know the """real"""" reason(s) why Russia pays back dollar-debt. It certainly is NOT for the obvious reasons, fabricated and publicized for the public. But you already suggested that.
Once Russia has paid its debts, no (unwanted) creditor can claim (demand) anything (privileges) from them. Much better to have all hands free when making new choices.

Russia is pulled into the euro-zone (euro capital market), Sundeck. Probably, Ukraine will come closer and faster to (in) Euroland (EMU) than Turkey (cfr. Kurdish sword of Damocles).

This < "security"-hysteria > is fastly spreading into all layers of the global society. Now, each and everyone "must" � priori feel unsafe. This generalizing *terror of fear* is ominous. When Condoleeza landed in sleepy Brussels, Belgian security dwarfs (comics) were almost fighting with Condi's own security. Jesus !
But you certainly suspect WHY the increasing generalized "fear-factor" is needed for, aren't you ?

Discussion has occurred numerous times about how to convey to other people the urgency of diversifying into physical holdings. I have been mocked at work many times for even talking about gold. An interesting thing has occurred that I am unable to fully explain. I purchase 20 PCGS MS69 2005 1oz eagles to get a bulk discount and only wanted to keep 10. I took a chance and sent an offer about 6 people at work for them to purchase at the same price I bought them. Wow! Two days later, they're gone and there appears to be more demand than I have available.
3-4 years of gently talking about this stuff really did make a difference. Hopefully, one or more will catch on to this like I did with my first purchases 7 years ago and really realize the difference between gold and paper. I am extremely encouraged.
Just food for thought on a wonderful weekend morning.

I read this forum once a day - there is nothing better then sitting down, coffee in hand and reading the days postings. Definately the best forum on the net for informed views.
I also read the links that are posted - thank you all.

http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/GERreichstagF.htm90% probability we're in synch, so here's my guess:
the same as the purported/ popularly perceived reason for the Reichstag fire in the early 30s? Note: not referring to whatever was purportrator van der Lubbe's real reason.

Caradoc

PS: The Socratic method is a great didactic technique. By pulling information out of the student on a piece by piece basis, the student gets the "bricks" one at a time and is able to assemble them into a solid wall of information that he owns and feels comfortable with because he knows it's all his. Besides, it's the weekend and nobody's in a hurry.

Personally, I like the so-called "gestalt" learning theory. Hit me with the whole expletive-deleted wall in one blow. Send me reeling. Then hit me with it again. After a while, I begin to recognize that particular wall of bricks and can decide what I think about it. Just a matter of personal preference here. Your approach is equally valid but should properly include at least a nod once in a while to let the student know he's getting it right.

http://www.scoop.co.nz/mason/stories/HL0408/S00277.htm
Snip.


Introduction

The United States government has operated a secret budgeting and spending program for decades outside the framework of the American Constitution. The institutional and political roots of this system of clandestine finance reach back to at least a century. The turn of the 19th and 20th centuries saw the consolidation of American industry and banking under the control of a restrictive cartel that for all practical purposes assumed control of the economy. The great magnates of American industry and finance in the late nineteenth century were superb practitioners of covert operations. Witness to this fact are the institutions set up during the twentieth century through which their descendants maintain control..

This paper is a summary of the structure of the American political economy which fits the facts better than the official model. Officially, American capitalism is characterised by democracy, opportunity, self-improvement, open and free markets, and constructive regulation for the public good, in short, happiness. Under this construct America has never fought a war of aggression and harbours no designs to do so.

Its leaders have the nation's interests at heart, and its politicians listen to their constituencies. The truth is different. Why the United States is so widely misunderstood is due in part to a controlled educational system and media. As the system evolved over the decades, time lent it legitimacy spanning the political spectrum. Gustavus Meyers, author of the seminal work History of the Great American Fortunes and no panegyrist, believed � following Marx as did many on the left � that the consolidation of American industry was inevitable and that the men who accomplished it were acting their part in a predetermined historical evolution. Once monopoly control had been achieved, the proletariat would rise and its dictatorship would begin. We shy away from such determinism; nothing happens but as a consequence of what men do and choose to do. If Meyers were alive today, he would still be waiting.



Druid: Shear brilliance in explaining the design, machination and magnitude of the problem. Definitely a command control political economy at the heart of the machine. It's a very long read but well worth your time.

@Belgian, another one of the big players such as Rogers, Buffet, Gates...etc that does not ever mention the "G" word in its proper context is Steve Forbes. I remember Forbes uesed to literally pound the table about gold but now, not a word.

I read the USAGOLD forum daily because I find the debate fascinating; particularly the evidence of the debasement of all of our fiat currencies. Removing the link to something of permanent value has allowed our masters to inflate the money supply in response to economic need or political expediency. Usually, unfortunately, the latter.

http://www.usagold.com/buy-gold-coins.html

POG CONTEST UPDATE as of 2/12/05, Saturday at HIGH NOON Denver time !

Entries listed in order of decending values !
-------

$$$$8,752.0$$$$ The Invisible Hand (2/9/05; 17:15:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 129072)

$$$$ $488.5 $$$$ Merlinsen (2/8/05; 10:00:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 129004)

$$$$ $454.7 $$$$ Moegold (2/8/05; 14:03:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 129019)

$$$$ $444.4 $$$$ Beamer (2/9/05; 01:35:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 129036)

$$$$ $435.4 $$$$ Wheelthru (2/11/05; 15:20:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 129180)

$$$$ $434.1 $$$$ mackattack (2/10/05; 16:14:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 129123)

$$$$ $432.2 $$$$ madmark (2/9/05; 11:12:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 129051)

$$$$ $432.0 $$$$ spikedog (02/04/05; 22:50:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 128898)

$$$$ $431.1 $$$$ Rimh (2/10/05; 14:57:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 129118)

$$$$ $429.9 $$$$ Gandalf the White (02/04/05; 11:27:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 128871)

$$$$ $428.5 $$$$ HOOSIER GOLDBUG (2/12/05; 04:30:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 129199)

$$$$ $426.8 $$$$ The Hoople (2/10/05; 07:55:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 129093)

$$$$ $426.5 $$$$ Sundeck (02/04/05; 17:10:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 128888)

$$$$ $426.0 $$$$ Topaz (02/04/05; 16:52:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 128886)

$$$$ $425.6 $$$$ Felix the Cat (2/12/05; 05:58:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 129203)

$$$$ $425.0 $$$$ John the Jute (2/12/05; 10:05:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 129211)

$$$$ $424.3 $$$$ Goldilox (2/11/05; 18:37:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 129185)
$$$$ $424.2 $$$$ lifer (02/04/05; 15:22:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 128883)

$$$$ $423.3 $$$$ GoldenBear (2/11/05; 14:35:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 129174)

$$$$ $423.1 $$$$ Kev (2/11/05; 15:53:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 129181)

$$$$ $422.6 $$$$ jenika (2/12/05; 08:01:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 129208)

$$$$ $422.3 $$$$ slingshot (02/04/05; 15:35:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 128885)

$$$$ $421.5 $$$$ balzac (2/11/05; 14:45:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 129176)

$$$$ $421.0 $$$$ Gondolin (2/11/05; 04:42:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 129154)

$$$$ $420.0 $$$$ Lothar of the Hill People (2/10/05; 10:19:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 129102)

$$$$ $419.8 $$$$ servantHeart (2/10/05; 10:36:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 129104)

$$$$ $418.2 $$$$ Slowman (2/10/05; 05:21:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 129089)

$$$$ $417.5 $$$$ Goldendome (2/11/05; 00:29:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 129148)

$$$$ $415.9 $$$$ Smeagol (02/05/05; 15:44:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 128925)

$$$$ $412.1 $$$$ pilgrims_gold (2/9/05; 12:33:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 129055)

$$$$ $409.0 $$$$ YGM (02/08/05; 04:06:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 128999)

$$$$ $408.1 $$$$ Henri (2/9/05; 08:02:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 129041)

$$$$ $407.1 $$$$ 2023 (2/6/05; 23:18:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 128961)

$$$$ $405.6 $$$$ Chally (2/8/05; 23:34:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 129034)

$$$$ $400.0 $$$$ DryWasher (2/8/05; 10:57:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 129009)

$$$$ $398.0 $$$$ DoubleEagle (02/08/05; 01:09:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 128998)

$$$$ $361.0 $$$$ Sprout (2/10/05; 07:09:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 129092)



=====

AND -- In case you missed the CALL TO CONTEST ----

Gandalf the White (02/04/05; 10:53:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 128869)
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ A "PRICE of GOLD" GUESSING CONTEST!! $$$$$$$$$$$$

We shall have a price guessing contest on the closing (Settlement price) of gold for the April COMEX contract (GCJ05) on Wednesday, February 16, 2005, ---BUT all entries must be posted to the TableRound before Midnight on Sunday, February 13th.

The "Price of Gold" (POG) Contest winner -- the person with the closest price guess to the actual Settlement Price -- will receive a nineteenth Century 20 Lira Italian Umberto I coin, (which may be seen at the following LINK).
http://www.usagold.com/gold/coins/ItalyUmb.html
These coins were Minted between 1880 - 1897 with a Fineness of 0.900, which therefore contains an "Actual Gold Content" of 0.1867 net fine troy ounces of pure GOLD !

There will be also be two runners-up prizes for the next closest prognostications --- each winning an one ounce U.S. Silver Eagle.

THE RULES -- (We MUST have RULES !!) --- PLEASE READ !!

1) The Winner is the poster with the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX (most active) April 2005 Gold Contract (GCJ05) on the date of Wednesday, February 16, 2005.

3) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $421.0)

4) "Guesses" shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT BOX location AND enclosed in markers of "Dollar Signs" so as to be OFFICIAL !
(Such as $$$$$ $421.0 $$$$$$$ )

5) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! "FIRST COME" has rights to that "Guess".

6) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes MIDNIGHT (24:00) on Sunday, February 13, 2005.

7) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY--- (as this part MUST accompany the Price prognostication)
--- In order for your entry to be valid, entries will be REQUIRED to answer the DIFFICULT and controversial subject by "Determining and COMPLETING the following statement": <;-)

I read the USAGOLD Forum ( how often? ) because ------ (in 25 words or more!).

--
LET the CONTEST continue !
===

Thinking out loud --- (This is my early Valentine to all !) The COMEX POG will not be changing from the Friday level until AFTER the ENTRY DEADLINE of Sunday MIDNIGHT (Denver time) and therefore everyone that is yet intending to enter this POG CONTEST has only to determine what will happen on MONDAY, TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY to win the GOLD and Silver prizes ! Don't PROGRASTINATE !
<;-)

six steps forward ,two steps back and............

I visit the USAGOLD FORUM daily as often as possible unless I'm terribly busy or on a trip .... Road trips are so lovely . It's become such a "SEE THE USA, in a CHEVROLET" world in OZ these days ......."We're not in Kansas anymore,Toto" (imagine these words being spoken in Clint Eastwood's voice per "DO you feel lucky , Punk ")

There is much free contribution of intellect here. There are many well read and informed who come here and contribute regularly ... Most of what I read here is a friendly exchange of ideas between the contributors.....I like to think of the forum as a hall of honor , emotion and humor , an association of ladies and gentlemen, also a congregation of color ; a court of seekers as well as contributors. This is often the place one might find most relevant info from the eastern as well as the western hemisphere first as pertains to global finance and economics. One may act with confidence when one has on hand good information ......Some of the best information I've had access too has come from this forum and its' members.....The old Boy Scout Motto is BE PREPARED
and Where Preparation meets opportunity comes success.
These are all relevant statement regarding my experience here.

Aside: there is a world of information out there Newspapers and Print Media type publications . There are a host of Financial News Shows in the Cable Network Media...
THIS IS THE AGE OF GREED. Therefore it is also the AGE OF LYING........THIS IS ALSO THE YEAR OF THE BURNING MATCH ...VALUE IS EVERYTHING and HYPE IS EVERYTHING .

I come here to hear the minds at this forum who have the capacity to analyze info and synthesize the news .....and boil it down ......... CUT THROUGH THE CRAP and HYPE .....so I continually have reconfirmation of where value is ....and what is relevant information .

You opined in post 129197 that you are convinced that the DOW is due for a big downturn. I sometimes wonder if equity prices might rise along with the prices of many commodities simply (or the exclusion of other influences) when/if and because the dollar depreciates. But assuming that Robert McHugh's prediction proves accurate, what then for the price of gold?

I will agree with your opinion that money will leave stocks and seek safety in bonds. This may be especially so for the huge dollar amounts held (invested) by mutual funds which include most pension trusts. Many of these simply can not short the equities so must turn to cash or bonds. Why don't investors at least place their money with hedge funds which can short stocks at those times when they are declining? Maybe we'll yet find some merit in ETFs that give mutual fund managers, who do have access to the futures markets, some access to gold prices. Although many might think it a great idea, fund managers are not going to invest their clients' money in physical gold.

So, assuming that the equities head south, and vast amounts of money seek shelter in bonds, would this scenario really be supportive of the dollar as you say? Bonds would rise and yields would fall but is the perceived value of bonds all there is to determine the relative strength of the dollar? Would not the falling stock markets reflect a worrisome economy? And would not this fear weaken the dollar? I don't know how many influences determine the relative strength of the $ nor do I know how much influence each one has nor do I know what future events will increase or decrease the strength of these particular influences. Actually, I know very little but I doubt the assurance with which you conclude that higher bond prices must then support the dollar. Is it that simple?

While it may be that money does flow into bonds if the equities crash, gold might, in that case, receive support from the smaller investor (as opposed to managed funds) and from those who do speculate in the futures game. But, whether physical metals buying or buying in futures, gold just might guard against both monetary inflation and deflation which is what, I believe, you meant when you refered to a scenario in which "cash is king". I'll agree with you that the big money now invested in stocks is not likely to find its way into gold. If there were an easy access between that stock money and commodity investment, as there is between stocks and bonds (money flowing back and forth daily), then I'd guess that the price of gold (and many other commodities) would already be much, much higher. If there were, do you suppose that the stock investment fund managers could figure out that shorting (as opposed to always buying) involves the exact same risks and rewards as does simply buying. I've never heard any of the CNBC announcers ask any guest, "what are the hot stocks to sell today?"

And yet, the Bush administration wants to put privitized money into the markets in place of some social security payments. Will all this go into the long side of stock ownership? If so, I guess we can throw out the fundamentals again for some time to come. Money invested by joe and jill public almost always is invested on the long (buying) side of stocks. Buying raises the indexes and begets more buying. Hey! Maybe happy days are here again!! And you thought the government was running out of ideas on how to keep stocks rising and on how to keep everyone happy! Now, if only the laws could be adjusted so that stock ownership entitled the share owner to eligibility in the company retirement plan, then, with more income, more retired folks would exceed the non-taxable dollar limits on income and have to pay more in taxes. This, then could used to offset tax breaks afforded to companies who include retirement benefits to their stock holders. And, of course, with the need for more retirement money, everyone would rush to buy into equities into as many companies as possible, thus again raising the price of stocks! .....Then, with the market capitalization (net value) of so many companies driven so much higher from the demand buying of their shares, company debt to market cap. ratios would plummet, and company credit ratings would skyrocket, making the borrowing of more capital easier and less costly. This in turn would boost capital investment in production facilities for companies around the world. The end result would be higher company profits, increasing stock prices once again and further increasing the demand for stock ownership, right? Now then, can all this be accomplished with the present amount of liquidity available? Probably not, more money will be needed and, of course, more bank and broker personel to facilitate all these transactions. There, problem solved for another generation or so.

Will I be able to use MY social security private investment money to buy OR sell commodities as I see fit? I'm self-employed, so my social security is 15 percent, all paid by me. Would I want to short anything when the above scenario is so rosy?

Anyway, just some POG versus stock market prices thoughts which turned into random thoughts that the administration would probably pay dearly for, no?
happy weekend...!!!!
rich

I know I should, I know I must,
I know it should be easy
To enter the gold price guessing contest,
But it's thrown me in a tizzy.

Every time, it seems to me
That MK cries "A contest !"
Is guaranteed to be the point
When gold is showing unrest.

It could shoot up, (Up to da Moon !),
Or is that a nasty vertex
of a dreaded bearish wedge I see ?
I'm feeling so perplexed.

"Never mind," I say to calm myself,
"It's only just for fun."
But game or not I see that there's
Some shiny to be won.

So gathering all my courage, I yell,
"Four Hundred Tenty Eight !"
Then type like flippin' crazy
Before some other smart ass comes along and steals my number which would mean that I would have to start thinking all over again about what number to pick, and then I'd have to rewrite the poem to get the rhyme right and then yet another smart ass might come along and .....
Well, you get the picture.

I don't know how often I read the forum, but I know that I haven't missed a post in a couple of years. To try to learn the truth is addictive !

C!

That should read....

mutual fund managers, who do NOT have access to futures markets,....

Rewrite to get the rhyme right ? Maybe I should have included the spell check in there too. But true art is never perfect, is it ?
C!

I read the forum several times a week if not daily for the education and camaraderie. Perhaps some day, I'll post more often that at contest time. This is a worthwhile forum, and I thank MK, our gracious and wise host for providing it (and all of his assistants too of course). May his business prosper and our tangible wealth increase.

I read almost daily as part of my study of the economics of future commodity prices. I do so to satisfy an insatiable curiousity for learning and I do so in an endeavor to gain totally outrageous amounts of fiat money from leveraged derivatives investments. I still, after all these years, possess the full complement of that quality which each and every baby is born into this world with plenty of,...greed! Thanks to all here who help me in attaining this goal..!!

http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html

I read the USAGOLD Forum daily because:
1. I regularly learn more about gold and money.
2. It is here that I first hear of important fundamental issues affecting our global economy.
3. It is a place of civil discourse, unlike most other internet forums.

Those rhymes from Clink,
though they may stink,
oft seem to get much bolder.
With longer frown,
I've been around,
But that's because I'm older.

The more we learn,
more gold we yearn,
more "clinking" in the pot.
I often lurk,
while I'm at work,
here at my favorite spot.

While U.S.A. is on all day,
we see the world's a mess.
To read the latest,
Roundtable Greatest......
I simply hit refresh.

I read the USAGOLD Forum as often as possible because, "free-gold" (or something quite similar) comes nearer each day. Its approach will be described here and only here. I can't think of a better place to wait.

@ Kilo

Your ode to Clink's verse is entertaining, as well, but I wonder, if in order to more closely follow the rhyme scheme, you didn't mean:

"the world's a mesh!"

Goodness ! I've never had an ode written to me before. Does that make me odious ?
C!

The empire has fought back in Bormio.

I'm off skiing too - it has been a great show by the US Team - and now lets split the spoils in Gold and Silver and some other metals ...

Best regards cb2

...crank the economic handle and ssing along, precious!
...we thinks they'll figure out the tune soon enough, eh? (grin)

Looks as if the Dow is done
Our money's on the Nasdaq
Techs look like they're on a run-
OUCH! Should'n'a bought that!

Mortgage loans at such low cost
And housing prices soaring
The bigger the bubble the better it gets
POP! No one is buying!

Which way will the money go next?
A flip of the gold'll tell ya
But it fell in and jammed up the press
RRRIP!! went the dollar!

"How are we going to fix all this?"
Bernanke cried to Greenspan
"Pack your bags and skip the rest
before SHTF!"

S.

...we forgot to tell you your Contesst Guess Poem had us, as they say, ROFL!

S.

Haw!

Gotta love it. Congrats to B. Raich. Hope Bode managed to keep both skis on the snow this time. We'll take our respite, split the gold with Austria and still smile with you over the bottle of champagne bottom of the hill.

To the empire!

MK

Check into USAGOLD forum to keep informed of any news old or breaking in the PM market.

Could this not be the other side of gold manipulation whereby Russia paying off debt in dollars would create the perception of more demand for dollars thus impacting gold on the downside. We've heard enough about IMF gold sales so maybe that card has been played and now it's all about dollar perception to control gold's price.

Waiting for the $403 price objective to get physical while the getting's good.

http://jessel.100megsfree3.com/DollarVLT.gifPath 3 is the route that will harm the greatest number of people, bull and bear.

See the thread on PruBear
http://tinyurl.com/4pmtt

I have visited USA Gold almost every day since its inception. At that time, I had absolutely no savvy of financial markets at all, but the wisdom and generosity of the many posters in that time have broadened my understanding considerable. Thank you CPM for hosting this wonderful resource.

Since finding this site in 1999, i've found this noble thread to be consistantly ahead of the curve in scoping out what will be in the markets and ,unsurprisingly, to always be committed to the unspun, unvarnished truth on the news of the day. Therefore i visit 3-4 times a day.
Blessings and thanks to all the keen insight expessed here.
Value will out!

From golden hall rings
the gong of the truth of yore
for all who will hear.

Sadhu, sadhu, sadhu

bowing
goldenpeace