USAGOLD Discussion - October 2005

All times are U.S. Mountain Time

ge
(10/01/2005; 02:25:01 MDT - Msg ID: 136557)
Carl Swenlin on Monthly Chart of Gold
http://www.decisionpoint.com/ChartSpotliteFiles/050930_gold.html.
Caradoc
(10/01/2005; 07:53:26 MDT - Msg ID: 136558)
news
http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/4E8313BC-B9DC-4629-8BCA-157811A23F16.htm It's not on Drudge yet, but 20 minutes ago Al Jazeera reported as breaking news "Tourists wounded in blasts on Bali Island...." Detailed story now says "fatalities."
***snip follows***

Fatalities reported in Bali blasts

Saturday 01 October 2005, 16:43 Makka Time, 13:43 GMT

Explosions have gone off in two tourist areas of Indonesia's Bali island, killing at least three people and injuring many others, police sources said.
The explosions rocked two cafes on the Indonesian island of Bali on Saturday, police said.
One blast was at a cafe on Jimbaran beach and the other in Kuta town square 30km away, police official Suwita at the island's headquarters said. Local TV said there had been three blasts.
"I don't know now about the number of victims or casualties. We're still busy collecting data," Suwita said.
***end of snip***

I'd rather see gold go toward its proper value without this sort of thing, but that's not the world we live in.

Caradoc
Goldilox
(10/01/2005; 09:44:48 MDT - Msg ID: 136559)
Threat to withhold Iran oil sales
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/4300124.stmsnip:

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has threatened to withhold oil sales if Tehran is referred to the UN Security Council over its nuclear activities.
"We will respond by many ways, for example by holding back on oil sales," he told a Dubai paper.

The UN nuclear watchdog agency passed a resolution a week ago paving the way for Iran to be reported to the council.

Western powers are concerned that Iran's uranium enrichment programme could be used to build weapons.

Iran insists its nuclear programme is purely peaceful, and designed to meet its energy needs.

"We have been extremely co-operative," President Ahmadinejad said in an interview with the Khaleej Times, an English-language Dubai-based newspaper.

President Ahmadinejad added that western powers had bad intentions, and that Iran had the means to defend itself.

-Goldiox

Read a report yesterday in the Guardian by a CIA/UN Weapons inspector who told the story of a botched Iraqi coup fronted by the UN Nuke Inspection team. There was one "converted" unit of the Republican Guard, but they were outed and liquidated by Saddam before the invasion. "Trust" is pretty thin on both sides of the oil pumps, and trigger fingers be itchin'.
Goldilox
(10/01/2005; 09:56:38 MDT - Msg ID: 136560)
US Scientist heads for Int'l Space Station
http://www.cnn.com/2005/TECH/space/10/01/russia.olsen.ap/index.htmlsnip:

BAIKONUR, Kazakhstan (AP) -- A Soyuz rocket carrying U.S millionaire scientist Gregory Olsen and a Russian-American crew lifted off Saturday from the Central Asian steppes, launching the world's third space tourist on a two-day journey to the international space station. . .

Olsen, the 60-year-old co-founder of a New Jersey-based infrared-camera company and holder of advanced degrees in physics and materials science, is paying a reported US$20 million (euro16.6 million) for participating in the Expedition 12 flight in a deal brokered by Virginia-based Space Adventures Ltd.

As the Russian-built Soyuz rocket was being fueled on the launching pad in Kazakhstan's barren steppes on Friday, top Russian and American officials held tough talks on the future of joint space missions with NASA's chief official warning that Moscow's demands for payment could end U.S participation.

NASA Administrator Michael Griffin told reporters that a 5-year-old U.S. law that bans space station-related payments to Russia because of Russian participation with Iran in building a nuclear power plant "could end a continuous American presence" on the international space station.

The cash-strapped Russian Federal Space Agency has turned to space tourism to generate money. But after transporting U.S. astronauts for free since the 2003 Columbia disaster grounded U.S shuttle flights, it is now threatening to start charging NASA by the end of the year.

-Goldilox

Interesting twists in "Space Cooperation"
Goldilox
(10/01/2005; 10:05:47 MDT - Msg ID: 136561)
Warm climate transforms Alaska terrain
http://www.cnn.com/2005/TECH/science/09/28/environment.alaska.reut/index.htmlsnip:

ANCHORAGE, Alaska (Reuters) -- Sinking villages perched on thawing permafrost, an explosion of timber-chewing insect populations, record wildfires and shrinking sea ice are among the most obvious and jarring signs that Alaska is getting warmer as the global climate changes, scientists say.

"We are the canary in the mine, unfortunately, and the harbinger of what is yet to come for the rest of the world," said Patricia Cochran, executive director of the Anchorage-based Alaska Native Science Commission.

Atmospheric temperatures in the remote state have risen 3.6 to 5.4 degrees Fahrenheit (2 to 3 degrees Celsius) over the past five decades, according to the recently released Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, a comprehensive study by scientists from eight nations.

-Goldilox

More evidence that climate change effects are more rapid and less subtle than earlier believed.
Goldilox
(10/01/2005; 10:24:37 MDT - Msg ID: 136562)
MIT unveils wind-up $100 laptop
http://www.cnn.com/2005/TECH/09/30/mit.laptop.ap/index.htmlsnip:

CAMBRIDGE, Massachusetts (AP) -- Experts at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology are designing a durable laptop computer that will cost about $100.

The machine's A-C adapter would double as a carrying strap, and a hand crank would power them when there's no electricity. They'd be foldable into more positions than traditional notebook PCs, and carried like slim lunchboxes.

For outdoor reading, their display would be able to shift from full color to glare-resistant black and white.

And surrounding it all, the laptops would have a rubber casing that closes tightly, because "they have to be absolutely indestructible," said Negroponte.

-Goldilox

I don't know if I would file this under continued commoditization of tech goodies, price deflation, third-world assimilation, or just an interesting Saturday sidebar for all the computer geeks here.
Goldilox
(10/01/2005; 10:33:01 MDT - Msg ID: 136563)
FSN Saturday
http://www.netcastdaily.com/fsnewshour.htmOne last Quickie -

Today's second hour guest on the FSN Broadcast is James Howard Kunstler, author of ""The Long Emergency: Surviving the End of the Oil Age, Climate Change, and Other Converging Catastrophes of the Twenty-First Century".

The 4th hour Roundtable is entitled "Is Global Warming Just Hot Air?

Should be a good popcorn and java day at the Puplava Tech!
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(10/01/2005; 11:02:40 MDT - Msg ID: 136564)
A world of gold at your fingertips...
http://www.usagold.com/buy-gold-coins.html

gold -- a global calling card
White Hills
(10/01/2005; 12:15:31 MDT - Msg ID: 136565)
Oil and gas
A lot of speculation on all the finance programs on Fox News this morning. It seems everybody has a different take on the rising price of oil and gas. Will the higher prices have an impact on consumer spending? What about the Stock Market? Some seem to thing we will head into a recession. Whose fault is it? Is it Bush? What about Katrina, Rita, Iraq or ect. ect ect. Not one person mentioned the $DOLLAR.In my view what is happening is the devaluation of the $DOLLAR by BIG OIL. Lets face it, just observation alone shows that everything is increasing in cost.Yet, the PTB tell us there is very low inflation. Gold, however, is telling a different story. As the $DOLLAR devaluates the cost of Oil goes up. After all the Arabs aren't stupid and the want more $DOLLARS for their Oil as they realize the sinking of the $DOLLAR as reflected by the price of $GOLD. In this trinity only Oil and GOLD can be valued as FRN are worth nothing and can only have value as reflected in the price of OIL and GOLD in $DOLLARS. Not having any special insight except observation and common sense the complexities of the whole thing are sometimes a mystery. But after you cut through the whole thing it comes to $DOLLAR goes down Oil goes up and GOLD reflects the dollar devaluation. Maybe too simple but it makes sense to me. White Hills
CoBra(too)
(10/01/2005; 16:32:01 MDT - Msg ID: 136566)
Global Warming - Cooling or a Hoax?
@ Galearis, Sundeck, Goldilox et al ...

Somehow disappointed by FSO experts laughing it away and or ridiculing the issue and blaming it to political agendas.

http://www.financialsense.com/Experts/roundtable/100105.html

Of course, I'm not an expert, though to leave the very real and frustrating topic to experts only seeing one outcome, which is normal climate cycles I find myself a bit on the defensive side.
And just to pick out out one piece of garbage of the discussion, where I may have some exprtise it would be the issue of abundant CO2 acting even as a long term stimulant to plants and trees. It has been proven that this is a rather short term phenomenon, leading to utter collapse of the tree, plant etc. after years of over-consumption of the great "nutrient" - drugs and alc come to mind.

OK, Resources like oil, gas, metals, grains are a plenty. It's just the infrastructure like refineries, pipelines, tankers, miners and farmers lagging investment. Fine, and why is it that these entities are behind the curve - Ha, to answer that question go no farther than the CPI's core rate ... Ridiculous? Don't think so - but maybe here's the political agenda.

PM's have even had a worse fate for the better part of 25 years. I'll be betting any further exponential price advances on cyclical climate and secular mentality! changes.

Oops, gettin' carried away - best cb2

Sundeck
(10/01/2005; 16:48:19 MDT - Msg ID: 136567)
Oil and gas and 'flation
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000080&sid=aR2g_aVo7LTc&refer=asia@White Hills

Yes, there is wide-spread misunderstanding and unrest in Australia too as to why petrol at the pump is rising. This unrest is manifesting in long-distance truck operators who are finding themselves running at a loss, since diesel fuel is a major component of their costs.

The food supplies of Australia cities are heavily dependent upon road transport, as many goods virtually travel the length and breadth of the country before they reach the supermarket shelves. It is only going to be a matter of time before rising fuel costs are reflected in food costs across the board. Milk is going up 16 cents per litre as from next week.

Governments put a lot of emphasis on the CPI, but as we all know, that does not truly reflect the effects of inflation on individual groups of people. As mentioned, truck operators are disproportionately affected by rising fuel costs. Child-care costs have also been rising five-times faster than the CPI, as has the cost of housing Thus, if you are a family trying to save to buy a house and have both parents working and kids in child-care, then you are really copping it in the neck.

Fuel price increases are probably being felt across the world...in some countries more than in others. Indonesia has recently removed subsidies from petroleum products and prices have almost doubled...gone up three times for kerosene (see link).

The effects of the weakening US dollar are not showing up in the foreign exchange (currency) markets nearly as much as they are in the "real" goods and services markets...gold, oil, housing, education, child-care...

Hold onto yer hat...we ain't seen nothin' yet...

Cheers

:-)
Topaz
(10/01/2005; 17:00:17 MDT - Msg ID: 136568)
Gold.
Rich:
Even in purely paper terms mate this all-currency PoG runup must be playing havoc with interest rate contango Black Box calcs. I wouldn't expect to see much trading in the out-months 'till (IF) it settles down a bit.
WH:
Ockhams Razor, KISS etc would concur Sir.
Sundeck:
Imagine the state of mind of that thrice airborne Cow as the next twister comes over the hill...Wwoooo!
You still with us ...or in US?
Goldendome:
East Coast of OZ Sir G ...currently 9am Sunday.

Bali Bomb fatalities total up to 32 ...Grief aplenty.
Suddenly, Gold Chat just became irrelevant.
CoBra(too)
(10/01/2005; 17:36:36 MDT - Msg ID: 136569)
How about Global Dimming ... for climate change ...
http://www.globalpublicmedia.com/interviews/434

Again, the Puplava show -as much as I like his usual great balanced programs was a bit one sided and as I feel extremely biased.
It was also not really commented by JP., except by the rest of the programs.

- Got Gold? cb2

Sundeck
(10/01/2005; 19:33:11 MDT - Msg ID: 136570)
@Topaz... Sundeck still living in the Land of Oz...


Sir Topaz asks of Sundeck: "You still with us ...or in US?"

I am still in the land of the living...if that is what you could call Canberra...although I have heard it called the Land of the Living Dead. No, I have not moved on to a higher or lower plane (the US?...Heaven or Hell...now there's a thorny one) just yet.

(Sorry! I couldn't help deliberately mis-interpreting your question.) :-)

Without keeping notes, it is difficult to know where everyone on The Forum is from...another aspect of "globalisation", I guess. As communications and economies and corporations and their "human-functionaries" become globalised, it makes you wonder whether nationalities too are going to lose significance...not the least because of forced migrations due to political strife and (dare I mention it) climate change?

Take care, Sir Topaz...a beautiful Spring day in Canberra today...but I passed on the Eggs Benedict...since I am having lunch with friends and I am forever concerned about "inflation"!

:-)

Husky
(10/01/2005; 21:24:23 MDT - Msg ID: 136571)
Global Warming - Cooling or a Hoax
Have to agree with CoBra(too) that the FSO roundtable was disappointing. It started out on what appeared to be a sound scientific basis, giving some excellent counterpoints to the Kyoto proponents and then completely degenerated into blaming "liberals" and "Europeans" for an anti-American agenda and then crying about the rotten manner in which the public treats the poor little, innocent oil companies. I had to turn it off at that point. The human costs of the wars and proxy wars fought in the past 20-30 years over oil seem to not be part of the equation.

I dunno, my BS detector is kicking in too often on their shows these days. Addressing "controversial" issues is one thing, offering outright political propaganda is another. Perhaps our host here at USA Gold should consider putting together a weekly audio summary of the action in the PM markets (devoid of any political agenda) that folks can download. It appears that the window for such has indeed opened.
Goldilox
(10/01/2005; 23:47:49 MDT - Msg ID: 136572)
FSN Roundtable
Well, it looks pretty unanimous. Puplava's roundtable today lacked anyone with opposing views. Three people in near-complete agreement on a hotly contested issue makes for a pretty boring "roundtable". I enjoyed the Kunstler interview more, although it also seemed to lack some "meat".

We get better multi-faceted discussion right here, thanks to CPM hosts and the plethora of participating viewpoints.

Oh well, JP still has a pretty good track record, even given a less than stellar Saturday.
Topaz
(10/02/2005; 00:24:50 MDT - Msg ID: 136573)
Sundeck. WAG 2(b)
Your comment: Ahhh...yes Sir Topaz....balmy Saturday mornings in the Land of Oz...sigh!
..conjured up an image of a man pining for something he was missing ..or perhaps a homesickness.
A Canberra abode explains everything as I'm sure on many a day the entire population is seen wistfully dreaming a somewhere else they'd rather be ;-)
Just kiddin, a beautiful City is Canberra.

Saw my first snake of the Summer ...a red-bellied black ...4ft, colloquially known as a Nigger. This gave rise to the expression "Nigger in the Woodpile" ie: an unexpected surprise that comes out-of-the-blue.
Now if ...IF we give credence to the Currency Wars being waged scenario <$-Euro> ...AND having borne witness to the stellar up-move in non-Dollar PoG these last few months, it would not be beyond reason for the WAG crowd to suspend Gold sales at this point.
In fact, to persist with liquidation given the fundamentals would and could be seen as downright lunacy.
How WAG evolves right here, right now will imo determine whether the Euro-Zone and RoW are committed to attempting a gold-based systemic FIX or otoh are simply Fiat cohorts hell-bent on sustaining/maintaining this current Freakshow.

Either way, WAG 2(b)has become the NitW.
Liberty Head
(10/02/2005; 00:40:40 MDT - Msg ID: 136574)
Global Hoaxing

Global warming? Ah ha ha ha ha

Without exception, fear generating issues, real or imagined, will be used by gov't for the sole purpose of increasing public support for gov't expansion.

Bigger gov't is the only result any of us will ever see.

The gov't has no stake in resolving any issue that helps it gain public support. In fact, the more gov't fails, the more public support it receives. Sad but true.

Gov't is the hoax and the general public is the perpetual sucker.

The small minority of folks that recognize the hoax for what it is, can fight back by owning gold instead of federal hoax notes.

Best Wishes

Sundeck
(10/02/2005; 06:12:54 MDT - Msg ID: 136575)
Moneywise, Japan favors paper over plastic
http://www.roanoke.com/business/wb/wb/xp-34514
Snip:

"...
When then-Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto noted in 1997 that Japan at one point had been "tempted" to sell some of its huge cache of U.S. government securities, the Dow Jones industrial average tumbled 192 points -- its worst point fall to that point since the 1987 crash.

Since then, Japanese politicians and scholars generally have been more guarded in their comments, even when wondering aloud about selling Treasuries. But these days, a vocal and influential minority has gradually begun to point to the dangers of investing so heavily in a currency whose future appears so precarious.
..."

Sundeck: Some differences between Japanese and American attitudes towards debt and other things...




Sundeck
(10/02/2005; 06:38:42 MDT - Msg ID: 136576)
What's Holding Gold Back?
http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=13214Nice graphs and summary of gold in the launch-bay...

Will it follow oil up?

:-)
Buongiorno!
(10/02/2005; 10:08:05 MDT - Msg ID: 136577)
global warming
Without a small ice age that we may still be in (global cooling,perhaps) the vikings may well have colonized America. (Looks like the weather did them in about as much as anything.) Then, we would not have to listen to Denver's Mayor trying to deny good Italian-Americans their right of free speech. We would be celebrating Lief Erikson Day by telling lots of Ollie and Lena jokes, eh?

I would also be happy to have some advocates come help remove some of that global warming from my driveway in about a month or so.

A very happy (and quiet) Columbus Day, everyone!
Buongiorno!
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(10/02/2005; 10:55:01 MDT - Msg ID: 136578)
Especially designed for those who are taking their first step...
http://www.usagold.com/gold/special/starter.html

gold ownership starter kit
David Linkley
(10/02/2005; 11:03:16 MDT - Msg ID: 136579)
America bashing
It has become quite fashionable across the globe and even here on this forum to bash our American way of life. The drive for larger homes, more comfortable vehicles and a multitude of other life enhancing material comforts abounds. Yet when I look out across my town I see people from China, Europe, India, Mexico, Brazil and so on acting the same way as us homegrown Americans. Could it be that all peoples can fall victim to easy credit caused by dishonest money? The slow debasement of a society is linked historically to the printing presses in any culture let alone in America today. People in societies much older than America have learned that money debasement can't last forever. Many of these people are now buying gold hand over fist, are you?
MK
(10/02/2005; 11:22:21 MDT - Msg ID: 136581)
Buongiorno!
I want to first of all thank you for your steady presence here.

I could not let your comment on Hizzoner John Hickenlooper go by without a comment of my own, since I reside in Denver (not in the suburbs but in the city itself in an older home once owned by Lyman Gage, the Secretary of Treasury under both McKinley and T. Roosevelt [Roosevelt the Good]. Mr. Gage appropriately enough is prominent in American history for his defense of the gold standard. The house was built in 1913 -- an iconic date to gold owners and advocates. I knew of Mr. Gage's involvement in the house several years after we purchased it in the late 1970s. The gold connection is pure happenstance. I learned of Mr. Gage's past ownership when a prominent Denver attorney, a member of the Gage family, stopped by one Sunday afternoon to relate the history.)

But back to mayor Hickenlooper, or "Hick" as he's affectionately called by the press and friends:

He began his career as the founder of a well-known brew pub in the LoDo section of Denver -- a community of old warehouse buildings which were converted to upscale businesses and lofts, one of Denver's many success stories over the past decade in a half. From there he went into real estate. I have taken many visiting clients and industry friends to lunch over the years at Hick's fine establishment. Hick is a democrat -- a fact overlooked in most business circles for his obvious interest in the business community. There's a move afoot to talk him into running for governor, but he tells suitors that he's not interested (He says he likes being mayor.)

Here's what the mayor actually said about the Columbus Day parade:

"Frankly, I am sick and tired of this entire costly, frustrating and potentially dangerous situation that generates nothing but ill will."

I would guess this comment came after about the fifteenth time someone asked what he intened to do about the Columbus Day festivities. (We love parades here. Nobody really goes to them. We just fight about them.) I find the directness refreshing. Here's a politician who says what he thinks without the aid of the polling agencies. I see it as aimed at neither the Italian community nor the Native American community -- but both.

Put yourself in his place. Would you not see it pretty much the same way? After all these are supposed to be adults and, from what I can gather, the events precipitating the parade-turf conflict between the modern Italians and Native Americans occurred some 500 years ago. The Italians, for the most part, did not know there was a problem until the Native American community began to show up at their parade a few years ago.

Ward Churchill is going to be there, we are told. We still can't determine whether or not he really has any Native American blood (as he claims), and I doubt that even if he had any Italian blood that the same would embrace him.

Just some off the cuff Denver-based thinking for a slow Sunday kind of morning. . . The sky is deep blue, the aspen are deep gold, the weather's beautiful -- most don't even know the Columbus Day parade is coming up.
Buongiorno!
(10/02/2005; 12:13:45 MDT - Msg ID: 136582)
Hizzonner

@Mk--agree with your comments re "the Mayor". He is a good guy and we need to respect him for that. Perhaps he needs a small friend to tug on his sleeve sometimes (especially in this age of "PC")and remind him that freedom of speech is not just for some groups. The "offhand comment" you refer to was (according to my spies) in an official letter signed by the Mayor. Can you imagine him saying anything like that to members of the black community if a group of street thugs had stopped the MLK parade, alleging some kind of "indiscrete conduct" in that good man's past that offended them? (Jail, baby, and well deserved!)

That said, the dear people of Italy could have chosen lots of people that are more representative of their strong, vibrant culture and history. But, they chose Mr. Colombus, and we should respect that. The Spaniards of that era were, of necessity, a tough bunch. They had just thrown the Moors out of some strong defensive positions. Those soldiers were sent to the New World. Some people got hurt, not unusual then or now. I think Columbus is remembered for his spirit of adventure and his courage. So, perhaps the Mayor should either change the law or enforce the law, IMVHO.

(The Broncos are in a very dull game at present--both teams seem determined to lose this thing--thought if I did some emails, things would speed up a bit while I was away...we shall see....) If this thing does not improve, I shall have to break our a bottle of Chianti early today and enjoy what you have so accurately described, "just another lousy day in paradise."
Chin--chin....ting!
Buongiorno!
Buongiorno!
MK
(10/02/2005; 16:31:33 MDT - Msg ID: 136583)
What's changed . . .
These days I am often asked "What makes this gold market different from markets in the past? Why is gold so strong?"

Here's my answer -- short and sweet:

� The permanent nature of the energy price increase.

� The final, and nearly complete, dismantling of the apparatus the bullion banks (and G-7) had in place to subdue the gold price.

� The international crisis of confidence in the federal/welfare state.

� The official sector's radically changed view of gold.

� The explosion of deficit spending in the United States, and the failure of the stability pact in Europe.

� The nearly complete loss of confidence internationally in the U.S. stock and bond markets on the part of ordinary investors.

Combined these have caused a mass movement into gold -- both physical and paper worldwide.

Goldilox
(10/02/2005; 16:41:40 MDT - Msg ID: 136584)
Bashing or Looking for improvement?
@ David Linkley,

Your quote "It has become quite fashionable across the globe and even here on this forum to bash our American way of life." suffers from stereotyping and over-simplification. If the "American Way of life" you perceive is hedonism (government and individual), resource gluttony, and callous disregard for human welfare over corporate warm fuzzies, yes, it gets a lot of criticism. From a wider perspective, helping neighbors in need, defending individual liberties from creeping government confiscation, building industries over "casinos", and ensuring infrastructures can last and benefit everybody are also part of the "American way of life", and these find little criticism here, at least.

The most important facet of the "American way of life" is the recognition that the only constant is change itself, and well-informed awareness is required to guide those changes in constructive directions without undermining the basic tenants of our constitutional foundation. Without the freedom to challenge the actions and motives of authority figures and institutions to inspire improvement, the "American way of life" no longer exists.

Thanks CPM staff and mgmt for a forum dedicated to analyzing the global and American attitudes towards finance, natural resources, and gold in particular - all of which are so thoroughly intertwined.
Goldilox
(10/02/2005; 16:45:01 MDT - Msg ID: 136585)
Gulf oil status
http://urbansurvival.com/week.htmsnip:

Our Houston Bureau guys (a/k/a oilman1@urbansurvival.com and oilman2@urbansurvival.com ) do an amazing job of keeping me posted on what's going on in the Gulf. Tonight, on the eve of our departure for the ranchstead, Houston 1 offers this:
Let me sum up: Hurricane Ivan destroyed 7 platforms and 100 piplines and 0 rigs.
Katrina & Rita destroyed (so far) 90 platforms and (who knows) pipelines and 100?
rigs.

There are typically around 130 rigs working in the Gulf. Today, there are 23.
There will be virtually no new exploration in the Gulf for the next year or so, assuming everything stays the way it is right now. Plus, with the rigs left in operation, there are several countries bidding to have them work in their waters. Guess who wins? Highest bidder.

Gasoline was up $0.40 at my test location just since last night. Expectations are that it will rise over $1.00 by Sunday night. Two years ago, I could fill my SUV (26 gal tank) for $28. Today, it cost me $28 to fill my buzzie with a 10 gal tank.

Service companies are strained to the max. There is very little equipment available. Dive equipment, generators, winches and the whole lot were destroyed in the storms. Rentals are going out all over the world to get the equipment to do the job. Right now, everything is on an even keel, but one more surprise could put the whole remediation effort over the edge, as well.

Still working on the refinery data for you. Don't trust the happy talk. These are eyeball numbers. We are keeping a large wall map up-to-date in the war room. (Oilman1 is at an oil service company that does offshore work - G)

It's not only bad, it's very bad.

-Goldilox

Eyewitness reports to urbansurvival.com from an oil service rep in Houston.
Clink!
(10/02/2005; 18:02:54 MDT - Msg ID: 136586)
The unfairness of history
One of the more interesting aspects of modern life is the ability of historians, with much better access to ordered information, to tease out the truth and expose the falsehood of "accepted" history. Sometimes it requires just enough time for most of the interested parties to die, so that there are no remaining vested interests. While often many of these investigations do not definitively tell the real story, they knock enough holes in the popular version to show that it just can't be true. A good example is Pearl Harbor, another would be the assassination of JFK (with former President Ford still alive to "defend" the Warren Commission report). 9/11 is yet another.

So now we come to Columbus Day. Why is this celebrated in the US when Christopher never even got to the continental mainland. Why is he known as the great, intrepid explorer when there were hundreds of Basque fishing boats which spent most of their summers off the Grand Banks and landed on the mainland to salt their catch of cod ? Columbus was just following a badly held secret (Heck, do you know any fishermen who will tell you their best places to catch fish ?!). The King of Spain likely just wanted to know where this important resource came from so he could better tax it. (This would explain why the Italian Columbus received little interest for his trip in his native land)

So having established that a significant part of history is a facile fabrication, should we be at all surprised if a great deal of what passes for current news is, in fact, false. Not a bit. That's what keeps on making me come back here. News with a healthy dose of skepticism !

C!

PS. I think I have mentioned this here before, but there is a fascinating book entitled "Cod" which traces the economic importance of the fish to both Europe and the US, as well as it's catastrophic dwindling of numbers due to overfishing.
Clink!
(10/02/2005; 18:24:17 MDT - Msg ID: 136587)
Rising home prices squeeze middle class
http://sptimes.com/2005/10/02/Tampabay/Rising_home_prices_sq.shtmlThis little gem arrived in my local paper this morning. It basically shows that house prices have doubled in the last five years. There are a couple of points which are of particular interest :-

Scott Mohn doesn't want to give up his job as a social studies teacher at St. Petersburg High School for something that pays more, just so he can buy a home.

But after a year of looking, he said, it's clear he can't afford a decent starter home or condo in St. Petersburg.

"There are a lot of teachers in my boat," said Mohn, 31, who made about $35,000 last year. "It's a source of constant frustration."

Mohn's predicament highlights the scarcity of affordable housing in Pinellas County, where open land has nearly vanished and new development is rare.

Mobile home residents are being uprooted to make way for pricier housing. Maids and cooks can't afford to rent near the beach resorts that employ them. Teachers, nurses and police officers are finding that despite middle-class jobs, home costs have soared beyond reach.

Should the situation continue unchecked, homes in Pinellas could soon be affordable only to those at the upper reaches of the income scale.

Already, businesses are finding it tougher to attract top talent because of home costs, said Mike Meidel, the county's economic development director. Soon, he fears, companies won't consider moving to Pinellas because their employees will be unable to find housing at a reasonable price.

"We know it's coming," Meidel said. "If trends continue, it's only a matter of time."

County leaders realize that subsidized housing may become a necessity not just for the poor who need help making rent, but even middle-class wage earners who don't qualify for traditional housing breaks.

C! Hmm, I wonder who is going to be paying for those subsidies .......

And another :-

Stock market-wary investors have been putting more money into real estate. Property speculators, low interest rates and loose lending practices have fueled the rush to purchase homes.

Relief in the form of a housing market collapse is a remote possibility in coastal Pinellas County, Mayo said. The warning signs of a bursting bubble - speculators leaving the market and an increase in supply - aren't there.

C! Yep, I bet a housing collapse will come as a relief to a lot of folks - somewhat akin to a really good hurricane being an economic stimulus .....

Sheesh, it's just as well the comics were good today.

David Linkley
(10/02/2005; 19:50:01 MDT - Msg ID: 136588)
Goldilox: Bashing or Looking for improvement?
I don't find the attributes of the America you discuss so easily found in today's world media. My comment was an observation and not meant as an opinion. Grassroots efforts to help others, defend freedom and the US Constitution are not exactly headline news. In today's world negative news sells and the US is an easy target. I believe my observations are correct but in time we Americans will turn the tide once again. We are after all a relatively young nation struggling to find our core belief system again.I appreciate your comments and welcome the opportunity this forum presents.
Camel
(10/02/2005; 20:05:10 MDT - Msg ID: 136589)
Global warming
The main reason I believe global warming is true is because the oil industry has hired an army of lobbyists to try to discredit it. They would join those already in place to prevent fuel efficiency standards for American made automobiles and efforts by the tobacco industry to extol the virtues of cigarettes.Have you ever asked yourself what kind of person would continue participating in the cigarette industry knowing all we know .There is just no truth or decency in them, and the American people have been so brainwashed they don't know the difference
Smeagol
(10/02/2005; 21:05:50 MDT - Msg ID: 136590)
Peak Oil, peak warming?

...sss... well, if we runs out of oil and gas, then we will ssee, not too far hence, whether we had any real effect on the grand cycles, eh, precious?

We thinks global warming or cooling is a non-issue... used mosst conveniently as a political manipulation device. The globe has been far warmer and far cooler than now in Hisstory, and will be either again... with or without our help.

But the earthquakes, we can explain that...

Five hundred buck strain
Golden haiku volcano
Rumbles restlessly

(wink and grin)
S.
Goldilox
(10/02/2005; 21:47:40 MDT - Msg ID: 136591)
Attributes
@ David Linkley,

Not disputing the cursed media hype, but after all, who OWNS it, and what is their agenda? I meant to point out that the less publicity-oriented, more mature attributes are well appreciated here on the forum.

We probably agree more than not.

(:^) Goldilox
Topaz
(10/03/2005; 01:38:08 MDT - Msg ID: 136592)
Killing Two Stones with One Bird.
http://www.futuresource.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=GC&o=SI&a=W&z=610x300&d=LOW&b=LINE&st=The accompanying Chart compares Gold and Silver trading over several Months.
The Silver (during '05) has demonstrated an "uncommon" relationship with Comex delivery ..not unusual as Comex is regarded as one of the last remaining Stockpiles available, and each delivery month they appear to struggle to get them done, some months it appears they even run quite late!
So Month over Month P-Ag waxes and wanes with Delivery.

PoGold otoh is demonstrating this cyclical delivery tendency, but not to the degree of Ag in that each Delivery Month actually takes 3 wks +or-.

The upshot is that, although they "appear" to trade in tandem, they are in fact trading "with" their respective D-Mths ...or more precisely Ag is trading the Mth and Au is trading the 3odd wk's.

We are now showing BOTH Au and Ag at the top of their relative upswing and looking to soften together.

We Watch! ...enthralled.
Topaz
(10/03/2005; 03:50:22 MDT - Msg ID: 136593)
Caviat.
http://www.crbtrader.com/data/default.asp?page=quote&sym=GCJ5&mode=dThe below represents a synopsis of the market NOW and we still have 9500 OI for Oct Au to contend with.
Oct OI has been @ 20K right up till the roll-over so I'd expect these all to get done (delivered) this Mth for a very respectable total Del around 18K.

As this 20k has been around for "ages", it will be interesting to watch today when Comex is in full-blown Paper mode ie: @ NY open.
Sundeck
(10/03/2005; 04:15:04 MDT - Msg ID: 136594)
Russia poll buzz �puts gold sale in abeyance�
http://www.gulf-times.com/site/topics/article.asp?cu_no=2⁢em_no=55054&version=1&template_id=48∥ent_id=28Snip:

"...
MOSCOW: Russia has shelved plans to sell a huge gold field in Siberia because the Kremlin, once keen on the multi-billion-dollar project, is too busy setting the stage for the 2007-08 election season, sources and analysts said.

Sukhoi Log - a giant virgin gold field tucked into the hills north of Lake Baikal - has been at the centre of a rush for Russian gold, sparked by booming prices and foreign majors� quest for new mining frontiers.
Russia had promised to auction it off some time in 2006 after officials had compiled a catalogue of so-called strategically important resources, including Sukhoi Log and the country's biggest Siberian oil fields.
..."

Sundeck: Now I've heard everything..."too busy" to sell off a gold province...a Sukhoi Log-jamb in the Russian bureaucracy, you might say, that no-one is rushin' to clear in a hurry...wonder why??

;-)
Sundeck
(10/03/2005; 04:53:36 MDT - Msg ID: 136595)
Looks like the "inflation" story is catchin' on...
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000081&sid=aCZ.yJkUM6Gs&refer=australiaSnip:

"...
``Inflation is screaming,'' said gold trader Leonard Kaplan, President of Prospectors Management LLC in Evanston, Illinois. ``All you have to do is look at your life and what it costs.''

Commodity prices rose 1 percent in September to the highest monthly settlement since Jimmy Carter was president of the U.S. in November 1980. The rally was fueled by gains in natural gas, sugar, orange juice and pork bellies.

...

``People are looking for alternatives,'' said Hans Guenter Redeker, head of currency strategy at BNP Paribas SA in London. ``Most currencies are not really attractive. Inflation expectations are rising.'' Inflation-indexed bond yields ``have been sharply rising, and I guess that the jump in gold prices is related to that,'' he said.
..."

Sundeck: I don't know for sure, but I think I just heard a GIANT inward sigh of relief coming from the Chairman of the Federal Reserve..."Ahhh...inflation at last! For a minute there, I thought we were going to have to geta long like in Japan... But now, prices are rising and wages will have to follow and.....wheee!...we can print more money, and the rest of the world will have to too, and the dollar is going to be worth less and less, and so are our debts, and I can retire a happy man!"

Mmmm...maybe I am just a tad too cynical...

:-(
Knallgold
(10/03/2005; 07:15:59 MDT - Msg ID: 136596)
Hmm,I know the Dutch auction style from somewhere...
http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh92636_2005-10-03_12-52-01_n03581234_newsmlFannie Mae to sell $3 bln in bills on Wednesday
Mon Oct 3, 2005 08:52 AM ET
NEW YORK, Oct 3 (Reuters) - Fannie Mae (FNM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) , the largest U.S. home funding company, said on Monday it plans to sell $1.0 billion of three-month benchmark bills due Jan. 4, 2006, $1.0 billion of six-month bills due April 5, 2006, and $1.0 billion of one-year bills due Sept. 29, 2006, on Wednesday in a Dutch auction.
In a Dutch auction, or uniform price auction, successful bidders pay only the price of the lowest accepted bid rather than the actual price as in a conventional multiple-price auction.

Galearis
(10/03/2005; 08:26:17 MDT - Msg ID: 136597)
Gold and silver deliveries: and meanwhile in the real world of precious metals
Thought I'd pass along a message from rhody,,,a heads-up before Monday's Midas. You heard it first on USAGOLD:

I just went into COMEX and got this Friday's delivery data. Last month 30.4 Moz of silver was delivered and over 1000 contracts in gold (100,000 ounces+)

On FRIDAY alone, Scotia Mocotta took delivery of 295 silver contracts for October delivery. That's almost 1.5 Moz of silver. Also on Friday, 8264 contracts in gold were delivered. That's 826,400 oz of gold. SM took over 100,000 of that. If this was 1998, that one day would have consumed all of COMEX gold warehouse stocks. As it is, COMEX has 2 million ounces in their warehouse. It won't last three days at this rate.

October is not a delivery month for COMEX, so these guys may have to wait till December to actually get their metal, but something is definitely going on!
*****
Comment: It would seem that the run on Comex stocks in gold has also begun. Just a speculation, but given the POG behavior of late I would think the "gold managers" in paper now are going to be uncomfortable being short real metal in the coming months.

It would seem that this is stage one for a return to a physical market in silver AND gold.
One hopes.
Regards,

G.
Knallgold
(10/03/2005; 09:23:59 MDT - Msg ID: 136598)
timing
I get the impression Gold started to run since the so called derivative meeting.Must have something to do with Funnie Mae as well.Gold lease rates don't seem to ease either.Something's brewing...

I'll get a good chunk of paper money soon,question as always,is Gold still cheap?Mum for the first time said "I should have bought more!".Usually a sign of a top.But then,I know where a potential top for Gold is...
So far I'm up roughly 30% since 1999 on my mostly (97%) physical portfolio,makes about 5% per annum.Where do you get that currently'safely?
timbervision
(10/03/2005; 10:24:47 MDT - Msg ID: 136599)
Robinson Crusoe Island gold hoard found- 800 tonnes
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/4291334.stm
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(10/03/2005; 10:49:05 MDT - Msg ID: 136600)
You don't have to stand idly by as inflationary trends plunder you down to the bones
http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.html

gold coins
Why should YOU buy gold?

Because no one else will do it for you.

USAGOLD-Centennial can help.
1-800-869-5115 Extension 100

Chris Powell
(10/03/2005; 11:45:50 MDT - Msg ID: 136601)
A tribute to Ferdinand Lips by his friend and partner, J.P. Schumacher
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/3375Latest GATA dispatch.


To subscribe to GATA's dispatches, send an e-mail to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com
TownCrier
(10/03/2005; 12:05:04 MDT - Msg ID: 136602)
We're All Treasury Looters -- Gov Shekarau
http://allafrica.com/stories/200510030228.htmlDaily Champion (Lagos) -- With controversies still surrounding the arrest in London of Balyesa State governor Chief Diepreye Alamieyeseigha for alleged money laundering, Kano State governor Mallam Ibrahim Shekarau has said that many of his colleagues are treasury looters.

He described the arrest of Chief Alamieyeseigha as an attestation to the looting spree which most governors have embarked upon.

He said, "Bayelsa State governor's case which is now in court is a testimony that most governors in the country consider public treasury as their personal properties where after paying workers salaries they convert the rest to their personal use."

Shekarau accused most governors of indulging in looting public treasury without minding the consequences and the negative effect it would have on both the growth of the Nigerian nation and its economy.

"Our image is at stake, it would be highly difficult for other nations to accept us, trust us and consider us people of proven integrity, he lamented.

^----(from url)---^

As reprehensible as it is, such looting of a treasury by its very own people strikes me as the common petty thievery of indiscriminate opportunists as compared to the more dastardly cowardice of the entities facilitating an insidious confiscation of sorts through the price-freezing of the value of gold as especially done over the past 25 years since the initial freedom launch for gold was aborted at the $850 level in 1980.

For those who don't remember, that first "freegold" test rocket had started from an officially anchored launchpad earlier in the decade at lowly $35/oz when Nixon essentially pressed the ingnition/launch sequencing button in August 1971 through his official termination of the institutionally fixed dollar/gold convertibility -- a licence for unbound freedom which was subsequently ratified by the IMF between 1976-1978.

As it turned out, the international financial system recognized that it was structurally ill-prepared for gold's price freedom, so the moonshot was aborted, as previously said, until ancillary (supportive servant) systems were built and brought on line for ANOTHER launch.

So here we are, 25 years later, and Ground Control is still busy stress-testing the newly emplaced euro-styled system using mark-to-market parameters. And until the day arrives when the mission controllers awaken to a reasonably blue sky and all vital systems are given a "Go" for the free-gold revaluation moonshot, we await the meanwhile with the gold value rumbling on the launchpad, straining with potential as the controllers keep a steady hand atop the price-frozen solid rocket boosters.

10 - 9 - 8 - 7 - 6 . . .

Will you be among the happy owners of gold when the countdown reaches zero as the conventional perceptions of gold are elevated in a relative flash?

Call USAGOLD-Centennial for consultation on a diversification strategy that's right for you. Great service, great prices for gold coins and bullion.

Toll free -- 1-800-869-5115

R.
Topaz
(10/03/2005; 14:50:25 MDT - Msg ID: 136603)
Robinson Crusoe.
http://www.futuresource.com/charts/micro.jsp?s=GC1%21&s=DX1%21&s=TYXY&s=CL1%21&s=&s=&s=&s=&p=D&v=15&b=LINE&d=LOWI don't think we'd class that as Paper(back) Gold ...more likely Classic Gold eh TV!
The quality of spin deteriorates from Major CB dishoarding, then minor cb, now the Classics (Cap'n Hooks booty will be next) ...through the Zane Greys to it's inevitable conclusion ;-)

700 Comex dels today, if Oct OI drops by a similar amount we're on target.
Curiously, the DX run-up today was not accompanied by a Bond sell-off until late in the move. Oil too was late to the party and PoG held it's head high.
Goldilox
(10/03/2005; 14:53:11 MDT - Msg ID: 136604)
Robinson Crusoe Island Treasure
I have followed a lot of treasure hunter stories over the years. Isn't amazing how governments jump in to rob the hunters of their spoils and "negate" salvage laws to suit their confiscation, but when a politically connected pirate like "the Donald" wants to dispossess New Orleans victims to build new casinos, the salvage laws are the first legal means he seeks to apply!

As has been historically true, keep all knowledge of your gold as covert as possible!

Modern pirates differ from their historical bretheren only in technique.
USAGOLD Daily Market Report
(10/03/2005; 15:35:58 MDT - Msg ID: 136605)
Page Update!
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Daily Gold Market Report has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.

MONDAY Market Excerpts

Gold retreats on profit-taking, spec liquidation

October 3 (from Reuters) -- U.S. gold futures finished lower Monday on speculative selling and after a bit of producer selling at quarter-end, but keen fund interest and expectations of higher prices still supported the market, dealers said.

COMEX December gold contracts sank $3 to end at $469.30, after trading between $472.20 and $467.20.

Profit taking and long liquidation weighed on futures as funds became technically overbought last week and as oil prices eased Monday, but gold still held close to its recent near-18-year peak on economic and geopolitical worries, traders and analysts said.

Dealers saw some safe-haven interest in gold after three bombs on Saturday ripped through restaurants packed with evening diners on the holiday island of Bali, killing up to 27 people and wounding 125.

Market sources said buying of physical gold also was steady and interest was due to pick up in top consumer India amid the festival season that peaks in November.

Demand in the Middle East also was reportedly strong, they said.

"Gold has been resilient. Traders have turned to buying on dips," a dealer at a precious metals desk said.

"There is some supply coming into the market (from producers at quarter-end), but not anything major."

New money has poured into the market and open interest is near a record. Gold sources have said the yellow metal is expected to rise toward $500, until the specter of inflation goes away.

---(see url for full news, 24-hr newswire, market quotes)---
Ned
(10/03/2005; 16:08:31 MDT - Msg ID: 136606)
Galearis
Thanks to you and 'bro!

Please keep us up to speed.
Goldilox
(10/03/2005; 16:38:52 MDT - Msg ID: 136607)
FSN Daily Market Report
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htmsnip:

This past week saw already unsettling rhetoric between the U.S. and Venezuelan leader Hugo Chavez �kick it up a couple notches,� so to speak, when it was revealed on Friday, Sept. 30 � that Venezuela had moved its central bank foreign reserves out of U.S. banks, liquidating its holdings in U.S. Treasury securities � moving the proceeds to Europe.

"We've had to move the international reserves from U.S. banks because of the threats from the U.S.," Chavez said during televised remarks from a South American summit in Brazil.

Anyone ever wonder what the Venezuelans might be purchasing with those proceeds?

While it's perhaps somewhat difficult to view this development in a positive light � it did shed some light on what might have been motivating the Fed's aggressive actions �behind the curtain� where their Open Market Operations are concerned:

[see tables and charts at URL]

In viewing the chart above, one can clearly see the recent obscene parabolic "add" of liquidity thru open market operations by the Fed thru their daily activity in the context of the year to date. To the uninitiated, what this graphically depicts � categorically - is the Fed responding to "systemic stress" on the financial system. My guess that the action depicted above was the Fed's response to a Venezuelan �liquidation� of their U.S. obligations is pure conjecture on my part. It is my sincere hope that my conjecture on this matter proves to be accurate, because if I'm wrong � systemic problems in the financial system still exist � and we, the great unwashed, simply do not know what the cause really is.

While I have grown to be suspect of most Fed data � the above scenario seems to be somewhat plausible given this August 12, 2005 amendment to the Venezuelan Central Bank Act � where it was reported:

"The National Assembly has passed the amendment to the Central Bank of Venezuela Act, making changes to the system to be followed for delivery of oil income in foreign currency and authorizing the transfer of part of the international reserves when they climb above the appropriate level of US$20 billion.

The money will be deposited in the National Development Fund (Fondem), to be created by presidential decree, in order to provide the resources to be used by the Executive Branch in financing investment projects, education and health plans, and payment of the foreign debt."

It has yet to be seen how these new rules will affect the country's monetary policy and financial system, especially once the rules governing the Fondem have been defined.

On my planet, this seems to be highly indicative that Venezuela's U.S. dollar holdings were already being somewhat curtailed given that U.S. dollar balances would naturally [and necessarily] have been accruing at an ever increasing pace � arising from the ever increasing price of crude oil exports that--currently--all settle in U.S. dollars.

The only question that I'm left with � another conundrum inducing head scratcher � why didn't Venezuela's [former] 20 odd billion of U.S. obligations ever get them included on this illustrious TIC data list?

-Goldilox

More conundra?
TownCrier
(10/03/2005; 17:18:49 MDT - Msg ID: 136608)
The United States as a Debtor Nation
http://bookstore.iie.com/merchant.mvc?Screen=PROD∏_Code=3993(excerpts from book overview):

The United States has swung from being the world's largest creditor to the largest debtor nation. At the end of 2004, it had net external liabilities of $2.5 trillion, or 22 percent of GDP. The current account (goods and services, transfers, and capital income) is massively in deficit-about $670 billion in 2004, or about 6 percent of GDP.

If corrective measures (US fiscal adjustment and a further decline of the dollar) are not taken, the current account deficit will reach about 7 to 8 percent of GDP by 2010, and net international liabilities will reach about 50 percent of GDP.

The rising imbalance will increasingly put the US economy-and hence the world economy and especially developing countries-at risk of a major crisis, as foreign investors lose confidence and US protectionist pressures mount. The longer the needed adjustment is delayed, the more wrenching it will be, triggering high interest rates, US recession, a greater decline in US households' living standards, and more damage to the global economy.

The United States has had three major episodes of external imbalances and downward pressures on the dollar during recent decades. The first, in the early 1970s, led to the breakdown of the Bretton Woods regime of fixed exchange rates, which proved unsustainable because the rigidity of global pegging of exchange rates to the dollar imposed a straitjacket that prevented the United States from correcting balance of payments problems.

The second episode was dollar overvaluation in the early 1980s followed by large deficits and the need for coordinated action to correct the dollar through the Plaza Accord of 1985.

The United States is now squarely in a third episode, which so far has been marked by a large rise an then major decline of the dollar against the euro and several other industrial-country currencies, and by the large external deficit.

Chapter 4 examines the fiscal imbalance that is part of the underlying problem of the US external imbalance. The discussion considers the long-term fiscal problems posed by Social Security and, far worse, Medicare and Medicaid. ... The central message is that further depreciation of the dollar will have to be accompanied by a large fiscal correction if major external adjustment is to be achieved.

Chapter 5 examines the risks posed by the external deficit, first looking at whether foreign holdings of US assets have risen so fast that there is a risk of portfolio satiation, and hence reduced willingness of foreigners to accumulate even more assets by financing ongoing (and widening) deficits.

This chapter gives special attention to the explosion of official foreign reserve holdings of US dollar assets, particularly by the central banks of Japan, China, and several other East Asian economies.

Also noted are the signs that central banks want to diversify away from the dollar.

In additon, the chapter examines the possibility of the surge in interest rates in the event that further accumulation of dollar reserves by foreign central banks comes to an end.

The chapter looks at the classic "hard landing" scenario of recession cause by higher interest rates provoked by a cutoff in foreign capital inflows... and cites the international disagreement on the dollar and interest rates in 1987 that contributed to a run-up in US interest rates and a severe correction in the US stock market.

Chapter 6 discussion rejects th argument made by some that the developing countries have been forced against their will by an inadequate international financial system to build up excessive and costly reserves. On the contrary, the large accumulations of reserves by such countries and regions as China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Malaysia, and even India have on balance been a part of the problem of international imbalances.

Instead of building up excessive [dollar] reserves, these economies should have been allowing their currencies to appreciate against the dollar, thereby participating in the global adjustment process that is needed to curb US external deficits.

It is found that whereas the euro and some other industrial-country currencies had already accomplished most of the needed appreciation by end-2004 (some of which was eroded by the dollar's subsequent rally through mid-2005), the Japanese yen had not done so, and the Chinese renminbi and several other Asian currencies in particular had carried out almost none of the needed real appreciation.

In trade-weighted terms these needed adjustments would seem much smaller than the individual real appreciation against the dollar would suggest because a wide array of competing economies would be appreciation against the dollar at the same time and hence not losing competitiveness against each other.

This chapter suggests that there is a "prisoners' dilemma" problem that discourages each country individually from being the first to allow its exchange rate to rise against the dollar, so that some form of international coordination may be required to facilitate the adjustments.

This discussion [Chapter 7] suggests some sort of agreement along the lines of the Plaza Accord or, more aptly, the Smithsonian Agreement of 1971, to coordinate such a realignment of exchange rates.

Part of the problem is that today's monetary regime has in meaningful ways regressed to the fixed-rate regime of Bretton Woods. Not only are there the outright pegs of the Chinese renminbi, Hong Kong dollar, and Malaysian ringgit to the US dollar, but, in addition, the "fear of floating" in effect pegs numerous other developing-country currencies to the dollar (albeit this time through numerous bindings by smaller economies) similar to that at the end of the Bretton Woods system.

^----(from url)---^

As with so many of these sorts of analysis and policy recommendations, the author omits any effort to evaluate the considerable and significant component of gold as currently held in the central banks' overall reserve holdings and future designs.

Does it not occur to these analysts to try to weave into place the necessary use of gold (and its revaluation) to fill the expected voids on the CBs' balance sheets as the value of all those dollar reserves decline in conjunction with the above-mentioned currency realignments? There is simply no better way to get the job done.

It will be done.

... 5 - 4 - 3 - 2 ....

R.
melda laure
(10/03/2005; 18:56:19 MDT - Msg ID: 136609)
Defending Absurdities, Facts and Fictions.
Sir Smeagol is right, as usual.

It is not a question of whether or not their is warming or cooling- of course there is! It is a question of its cause: and the long carbon cycle might in fact be the effect of some greater (and totally unmanageable) cause hinted at by Hoagland and Bearden and others.

Or not. It is long past the days when elves did men's homework. Responsibility for learning these things has passed to others now.

The dollar is not a cause, it is an effect. Dollars merely hide demand in time space. Bonds, stocks, dollars, are all time phenomena, not economics. Economics is what people do to commodities: consume, create, service. Real demand can not be hidden forever: nor can we blame the money for the bank robber.

Columbus, Facts, and Fictions perpetrated on them.

The "fact" of 1492 establishes the chain of "ownership", Sir Clink!. Those Basques never laid claim to the western hemisphere, (and if they did, I'm quite certain the US Senate doesn't want to hear about it). You are correct in that history is often a magic act: "please pay attention to this hand here that is doing nothing- except to distract you from looking at my other hand". Who owns what and why is a lie that MUST BE DEFENDED IN DEFIANCE OF ALL ABSURDITY.

"The complete loss of confidence internationally in the US Stock and bond markets on the part of ordinary investors"...

An Excellent point! The price action is but morons betting after all bets are called, and all cards are face up. In this regard, Sir Goldilox, your refinery figures are simply amazing. I've never yet met the horse that could run on paper gallons.

Time for my real supper, and to count my real wealth.
mikal
(10/03/2005; 20:27:09 MDT - Msg ID: 136610)
Snow, Greenspan vacation upcoming
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/9582872/ Snow, Greenspan taking message to China - AP - October 3, 2005
Later to be joined by officials of the SEC and CFTC, and emerging nations Brazil, India etc.
Goldilox
(10/04/2005; 00:13:45 MDT - Msg ID: 136611)
Big reserves cut for blushing Gold Fields
snip:

TEN months after taking hostile bidder Harmony to task for overstating its gold reserves, Gold Fields yesterday announced it was cutting its end-June gold reserves 18%.

"The quantity of reserves that any mining house has is the single most important measure the market has of valuing a company. Therefore, misstatements in, or manipulation of, reserve statements are generally viewed in a very serious light by regulators and shareholders alike...every ounce of reserves published by Gold Fields is supported by an independent audit opinion," Gold Fields said at the peak of the takeover battle in November.

But yesterday, Gold Fields itself announced it also had to revise its reserves downwards, from 79-million to 65-million ounces.

-Goldilox

Taking a page out of the oil companies' playbook, miners are also cutting reserve estimates.
Sundeck
(10/04/2005; 04:44:36 MDT - Msg ID: 136612)
Sea-change??
Is there a sea-change happening??

Here are some factors that make me suspect there is a change in the wind:

1. US Generals talking about Iraqi troop drawdown and that the US presence in Iraq may be actually "fueling insurgency"? This story in the LA Times seems to have met with a little low-key rebuttal in high places, but not too much. My nose is picking up a funny smell from this one.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2005/10/01/us-generals-presence-of-_n_8173.html

2. NY Times editorials becoming evermore stridently anti-administration? Scarcely an issue goes by without some editorial ripping into the Administration (or Congress, or both).

3. Increased chatter about energy alternatives for the US?? Eg. the governor of Montana now pushing the merits of gasoline from coal: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/03/opinion/03schweitzer.html?th&emc=th


4. Australian Treasurer's recent unusually frank criticisms of present US Fiscal policy as "not working"? The present Australian government is about as pro-American as any in history, but lately there has been a bit of uneasy shuffling of feet and hand-waving. I think the word "China" has something to do with it all.


5. Greenspan and Snow off to China for "talks in Beijing over economic issues including China's efforts to reform its currency system." Now that seems to me to be a rather heavy-weight delegation of US financial players going off to China to "lend a hand". Mmmm...wonder what the real agenda is??
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/9582872/

6. Governor of the Australian Reserve Bank recently issued reassurance that the present imbalances in the world are not too worrying and that US spending isn't the main problem, but Asian saving is. Huh?? Ever since I was a kid, people have been telling me that saving is a fundamental virtue. And if everything is onky-dory, why bother to reassure anyone anyway?

7. Gold breaking out in all currencies.

8. Increased talk of inflation.

Anyone else feel a change in the wind?

:-)
mas
(10/04/2005; 05:09:16 MDT - Msg ID: 136613)
Interesting, main news headline?
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/051004/phtu004.html?.v=29

Treasury Rates Set to Rise as Foreigners Stop Buying Our Debt
Tuesday October 4, 6:17 am ET

NEW YORK, Oct. 4 /PRNewswire/ -- Foreign governments have been bailing out the U.S. for several years now, buying up 70% or more of our federal debt. At one point, they were financing our ballooning deficit to the tune of $4 billion a day.
Selling our debt to overseas banks, however, is getting harder ... all too quickly, says Dr. Mark Skousen, an economist and advisor for http://www.InvestmentU.com.

Debt purchases have started to decline precipitously, from a peak quarterly rate of more than $400 billion in early 2004, to just $100 billion in the most recent quarter. At the same time, the federal deficit is expected to reach more than $500 billion in fiscal 2005. More debt, fewer buyers ... a double whammy. Check this out:

http://www.investmentu.com/aboutiu/WorldFinancialSeminars/Images/Treasury.gif
The sharp slowdown in foreign purchases of U.S. debt will force the Treasury to raise interest rates to keep governments from unloading their T- bonds.

Already, central banks from China to Argentina are quietly shifting to non-paper assets, specifically gold and precious metals, to diversify their portfolio.

Now here's what we can do to protect our personal positions ...

Investors must arrange their financial strategies to prosper during this paradigm shift. Gold is the best indicator of global instability. The fact that it has been rising steadily in price since 2001 should be a wakeup call. In fact, last week gold hit a 17-year high of $470 an ounce.

more...

Topaz
(10/04/2005; 05:51:14 MDT - Msg ID: 136614)
Julian Phillips take on WAG 2(b)
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/phillips/phillips100405.htmleom.
Topaz
(10/04/2005; 06:01:56 MDT - Msg ID: 136615)
Spot Gold.
We've just seen ANOTHER example of the arm-wrestle going on here in Spot delivered Bullion-v-Futures Paper. The NY trading break where London is alone in the market spikes PoG hard again.
Boilermaker
(10/04/2005; 07:11:05 MDT - Msg ID: 136616)
Slow Recovery in O&G Production & Refining
http://platts.com/Oil/Resources/News%20Features/katrina/factsheet/KFS_20050930.pdfsnip;

PRODUCTION SHUT-INS
The US Minerals Management Service reported Friday that crude oil shut-ins were 1.467-mil b/d, or 97.83% of normal
production of 1.5-mil b/d. On Thursday, the shut-in figure was 98.59%. MMS also said natural gas shut-ins fell to 7.941 Bcf/d, or
79.41% of normal production of 10 Bcf/d. On Thursday, gas shut-ins were at 79.79%. The next MMS update is scheduled for
Monday.
REFINERY CLOSURES
An estimated 3-mil b/d of refining capacity may be idled for an extended period from hurricanes Katrina and Rita, equivalent
to about 18% of the US' 17-mil b/d of total capacity.

The following refineries have been most affected by Hurricane Rita: Valero -- Port Arthur, Texas, (250,000 b/d), two to four
weeks to restart; Total -- Port Arthur (240,000 b/d), down for "an extended period of time;" Motiva -- Port Arthur (275,000 b/d),
no power/some wind and flood damage/no timetable for restart; ExxonMobil -- Beaumont, Texas, (348,500 b/d), no
power/damage assessment ongoing/no restart date; ConocoPhillips -- Lake Charles, Louisiana, (239,000 b/d), mid-October
restart; Citgo -- Lake Charles, (325,000 b/d), no power/no restart date; BP -- Texas City, Texas, (446,500 b/d), restart within a
month, but may not produce until end of October due to regulatory scrutiny, sources told Platts. Company says insulation damage
to some units.

The following refineries are still closed in the wake of Katrina: Chevron -- Pascagoula, Mississippi, (325,000 b/d);
ConocoPhillips -- Alliance plant in Belle Chasse, Louisiana, (247,000 b/d); ExxonMobil/PDVSA -- Chalmette, Louisiana, (187,000
b/d), November restart; Murphy Oil -- Meraux, Louisiana, (125,000 b/d).

comment;
Gulf of Mexico (GOM) oil and gas shut-ins are still massive and refinery closures are equally large. I don't think the US public recognizes the impact that these shut-ins will cause. We're looking for not just higher prices but industrial gas curtailments that will force factory closures and associated unemployment. The government is releasing SPR crude that in many cases can't be refined. I haven't seen the word "rationing" used yet but don't be surprised if it shows up soon.
The stock market has not even started to discount the huge economic consequences that are coming as a result of these O&G outages. This is adding insult to injury to an economy already stressed by high energy prices. When was the last time that we saw NYSE down-side trading rules in effect? I expect to see them by year's end. Buy low (gold), sell high (stocks/bonds).
Clink!
(10/04/2005; 07:43:11 MDT - Msg ID: 136617)
Have faith in your mortgage ?
http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/P131154.asp?PrinterThis is an interesting tidbit buried in the middle of an article talking about the woes of people with zero-down mortgages in Ohio :-

Nehemiah: Rebuilding Jerusalem's walls . . . and yours
Alongside that front-page story, the Columbus Dispatch ran "Loophole Fuels Zero-Down Mortgages," which illuminated a wrinkle I was unaware of:

"Homebuilders across the country, including Dominion Homes, have found a way around a Federal law barring sellers from giving money directly to buyers for a down payment. They route the money through charities such as the Nehemiah Corp. of America, a faith-based group in California. Nehemiah provides down payments for both existing and new homes, and its relationship with Dominion is the largest of its kind in central Ohio between a builder and charity.

"Nehemiah uses a loophole in federal regulations that allows charities to provide the 3% down payment required to qualify for Federal Housing Administration mortgages. An uncounted number of copycats have followed, leading to an explosion of 'zero-down' loans. Federal authorities do not regulate or track such organizations."

The Alonsos' story is about just one family in one property development, singling out one homebuilder and one abusive financial scheme. There are undoubtedly many, many variations on this theme, and the full story won't be written until the housing bubble really unwinds -- much as we didn't find out about Enron, WorldCom, and those assorted problems until the tide went out on the stock mania.
TownCrier
(10/04/2005; 10:21:08 MDT - Msg ID: 136618)
The ABCs of Gold Investing (Second Edition) -- written for today's market
http://www.usagold.com/cpm/abcs.htmlA Primary Education in Gold Investing for First-Time Investors!

Covers the "How-To" Essentials on Purchasing Gold plus Why Americans Need Gold Now More Than Ever:

* Which Coins to Buy
* Choosing a Gold Firm (What to Look Out For)
* How to Get a Gold Education
* Gold's Fundamentals
* Gold's History
* Myths & Realities about Gold
* Storing your Gold
* Reporting Requirements
* Confiscation Issues
* Using Gold as Money
* And More

"If you are looking for thorough guidelines for making good decisions about private gold ownership, The ABCs of Gold Investing has all the answers." --Money World Magazine

Retails for $14.95 at fine bookstores everywhere, however, get yours directly from USAGOLD for only $5.95 (plus $3 S&H)

Book orders ship 2-3 day Priority Mail

^----(click URL for more info)---^

Written by USAGOLD-Centennial's president and CEO, Michael J. Kosares. Having 30 years in the business, MK's book covers all the bases in 175 easy-to-understand pages. Be sure to add this one to your personal library!

R.
TownCrier
(10/04/2005; 11:13:53 MDT - Msg ID: 136619)
Bush to name new Fed chair 'at appropriate time'
http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh13699_2005-10-04_16-09-20_n04332579_newsmlWASHINGTON, Oct 4 (Reuters) - U.S. President George W. Bush said on Tuesday he has not yet been given a list of prospective names for new chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve, but expects to name a replacement for Alan Greenspan "at an appropriate time."

"It's important that whomever I pick is viewed as independent from politics."

Greenspan has been at the helm of the Fed for more than 18 years and is scheduled to step down at the end of January.

Partly because of his lengthy tenure, as well as the importance of crafting monetary policy to keep the world's largest economy on an even keel, there is intense worldwide interest in who will succeed the 79-year-old Greenspan.

"The nominees will be people that, one, actually can do the job and secondly will be independent," Bush said. "It's the independence of the Fed that gives people not only here in America, but in the world, confidence."

^----(from url)----^

With the stipulation that 'independence' from politics is a desirable quality, insofar as international entities have no control over the personalities of their various other international counterparts, the most natural and assuredly 'neutral' choice in selecting the structure of your reserve assets is to minimize foreign bonds and go for gold in a MTM free-gold market regime. Guaranteed independence -- because Mother Nature doesn't play politics with a printing press.

R.
TownCrier
(10/04/2005; 11:41:03 MDT - Msg ID: 136620)
Federal Reserve in open market, adds 'permanent' reserves as it buys Treasury coupons
http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/permanent.htmlDespite a fed funds market which was trading in line with the new FOMC policy target rate of 3.75 percent, the Fed's Trading Desk today nonetheless felt compelled to intervene in the open market, creating new cash for the purchase of Treasury securities.

To begin, the Fed cheaply added a temporary $6 billion to the reserves of the banking system through a round overnight repos at a bank-friendly sub-FOMC rate of 3.712 percent.

More significantly, the Fed also conducted outright purchase operations in the open market today, creating $1.193 billion in 'permanent' new cash while buying Treasury securities for its own account. The Fed gave its support to the near end of the yield curve, targeting Treasury coupons maturing from October 2006 through July 2007.

New money and bank reserves can be this easily created. Almost disturbing, isn't it? But as mentioned earlier, Mother Nature keeps a tighter grip on supplies of new gold. Just be sure you choose metal and are not duped into PAPER gold, which can be as easily overcreated as the monetary IOUs cited in the first occasion.

R.
mikal
(10/04/2005; 12:01:49 MDT - Msg ID: 136621)
With flu outbreak expected, quarantine plans are mulled
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20051004/ts_nm/bush_birdflu_dcBush Proposes Using Military in Bird Flu Pandemic - Reuters - October 4, 2005
Market moving events don't always come from expected places.
TownCrier
(10/04/2005; 12:20:15 MDT - Msg ID: 136622)
Inflation at top end of Fed tolerance zone, says Fisher
http://keyinvest.ibb.ubs.com/ki/ch/en/newsbody.ki?newsid=3973125DALLAS, Oct 4 (Reuters) - Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Richard Fisher said on Tuesday inflation was running at the "upper end of the Fed's tolerance zone" and warned a loose fiscal policy risked pushing interest rates higher.

...said the U.S. economy appeared to have been slowing and much of the Fed's monetary stimulus had been removed before Hurricanes Katrina and Rita hit.

He said, however, soaring energy prices and heavy government spending in the wake of the two storms were adding "demand pressures" to the economy.

"The markets, if left to their own devices, would produce higher interest rates to ration money and balance the demand and supply of capital," he said. "If the Federal Reserve were to resist the upward pressure on interest rates, it would in effect monetize the burgeoning fiscal deficits."

^---(from url)---^

Seems to me the Fed is doing a fair bit of monetizing anyway, as is. (see previous)

R.
Goldilox
(10/04/2005; 12:21:29 MDT - Msg ID: 136623)
Redbirds Lead
4-0 after 4. Peavey has given up a solo shot, two bloops, a run scoring wild pitch, and a two run single.

Cards defense has turned three DPs.

The scoring machine rolls on.
TownCrier
(10/04/2005; 12:25:20 MDT - Msg ID: 136624)
Gold prices recover as festival demand starts
http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/blnus/08041701.htmNEW DELHI: Gold prices recovered on the bullion market on Tuesday on emergence of festival buying coupled with stockists enlarging their positions amid firm international trend and closed with moderate gain.

Trading activity spurred on beginning of festival season of 'Navratri', considered to be an auspicious week for any new purchase.

The market also bolstered as stockists commenced their buying to meet the coming festival and wedding demand while a firm international trend further fueled buying spree.

Gold in London has risen between the start of September and the end of October for four consecutive years, including 4.8 percent last year.

^----(from url)----^

"AUspicious" -- a good word to describe any such occasion on which a person shifts their temporary papery holdings into the enduring wealth of solid gold savings.

R.
TownCrier
(10/04/2005; 12:38:35 MDT - Msg ID: 136625)
Dubai Gold and Commodities Exchange set to become operational in November
http://www.khaleejtimes.com/DisplayArticle.asp?xfile=data/business/2005/October/business_October87.xml§ion=business&col=4 October 2005, DUBAI -- Dubai Gold and Commodities Exchange (DGCX) to be operational next month...

Dr David Rutledge, chief executive officer of Dubai Metals and Commodities Centre (DMCC), said that DMCC ... has been working on market regulations for a couple of years now...

Fuel exchange has been under evaluation for some time now with various players in the industry to the first energy future contract traded at DGCX. "We had discussions with industry representatives and we welcome any ideas about possible fuel oil futures contract specifications brought to us," he said.

In fact, DMCC has engaged in extensive consultation process with all sectors of the oil industry in the Middle East and Singapore, including the national oil companies, integrated oil majors, leading refined product traders, investment banks and other organisations. Energy futures contracts issues include range of products; liquidity/volatility; market players and their participation in risk management; and delivery versus cash settlement, he said, adding that ****physical delivery is the best option.******

Oil is the most significant commodity in the Middle East region, which has the biggest share in the world's fuel exports.

DGCX is a joint venture between DMCC, Multi Commodities Exchange of India Ltd (MCX) and Financial Technologies (India) Limited (FTIL). The exchange has been developed to facilitate the trade of gold and commodities.

The new exchange ... will have HSBC and National Bank of Dubai as clearing banks.

Dr Rutledge said while the majority of the applicants were from the AGCC, followed by India and Pakistan, in future some players from the UK, US and Canada are also expected to join the exchange. DMCC currently has some 590 members.

The exchange will commence operations with gold and silver, followed by fuel oil.

^---(from url)---^

Confirms my 'November' startup recollection for the Dubai exchange as mentioned in a post during the past week. Expect this to become a globally important reference benchmark in the establishment of gold price/value.

I seem to also recall that the Exchange will conduct Saturday business, although that is not specifically mentioned in this article.

R.
Goldilox
(10/04/2005; 12:41:16 MDT - Msg ID: 136626)
OUCH!
Reggie Sanders just took Peavey deep on 3-0 with the sacks juiced.

8-0 bottom 5th

Cards are a step closer to that "gold ring".
TownCrier
(10/04/2005; 13:04:24 MDT - Msg ID: 136627)
Nugget hunts send visitors off with gold
http://www.abqtrib.com/albq/bu_national/article/0,2565,ALBQ_19839_4121931,00.html(excerpts) -- Visitors to Alaska are returning home with chunks of gold now that new businesses have sprouted that take tourists nugget-hunting in the wilderness.

Field reports indicate that visiting prospectors are making consistent finds, including a 42-ounce gold nugget pulled from Ganes Creek, 45 miles west of McGrath, in the summer.

Steve Herschbach, owner of Alaska Mining & Diving Supply in Anchorage, started a nugget-hunting business this summer. He's inundated with inquiries...

Dean Griswold of Kirkland, Wash., came to Alaska for the first-time this month and walked away with a 6.5-ounce nugget.

"Boy, was I surprised," said Griswold, who sells sand to golf courses.

Griswold said he was moving his metal detector over an old tailings pile when he heard a loud beep. He took out his pick and began digging down about a foot. Griswold used a big plastic spoon to unearth his treasure, worth more than $2,500 at today's gold price.

"It looked just kind of like a rock. There was sand all around it. I looked at it and waved it over the metal detector and it gave off that huge sound. When I turned it over, I could see all this gold shining back at me. It's an unbelievable feeling."

Gaine Hakoda of Hilo, Hawaii, understands.

Hakoda, who sells and repairs mobile phones on the Big Island, had previously hunted for gold nuggets in Nevada and Arizona to no avail. His luck changed when he booked a trip with Herschbach.

The first-time visitor to Alaska used a metal detector, a dredge and a sluice and found a half-ounce nugget and a quarter-ounce one. The other guys on the trip knew Hakoda had never found a nugget before, so when he started hooting and hollering after discovering one, a communal celebration resulted.

"All of them came running over. They were all very happy for me," he said.

The Hawaiian visitor said he was also impressed with Alaska's midnight sun and the reindeer sausage and moose burgers he downed in McGrath.

^----(from url)----^

Personally, I rank this above both fishing expeditions and golf for the satisfaction of vacation or recreation needs. But, fun and vacation aside, from a pure economic/investment standpoint, for getting the biggest bang (the most metal) for your buck it's hard to beat the simple and outright purchase of gold -- an incredible bargain at less than $500 for a full ounce, fully refined. The same could be said for 100-yr old gold coinage at only approx $100 per each.

Call USAGOLD-Centennial today for an economical and low-impact alternative to a hit-or-miss wilderness excursion to give you the feel of the thrill of gold discovery and ownership. Discover dozens of coins in your very own hands with a simple toll free phone call.
1-800-869-5115 (ext.100)

R.
CoBra(too)
(10/04/2005; 13:19:31 MDT - Msg ID: 136628)
Global Warming, Dimming and other distractions ...
As the topic is more than complex and not pretending to be a scientist - a host of US and international experts have for years expressed their views on this elusive topic.

It is not only cycilcal, or recurring - it is clear that our climate is changing a 100 times faster than anytime in earth's history. The German Max Planck Institute came to a similar conclusion.

The Kyoto protocol may have been a beginning. It was torpedoed by the USA, inhabitating 5% of the sphere's population and still using 25% of its liquid hydrocarbons.
O(r), well - Soilent Grenn may be the answer ...

Some of us are still in denial, and that's a fact. I can't cope with so called academics seeing nothing wrong as they still may pledge in the long run nothing's proven!

Well, for sure in the long run we're all dead. Do we have to take our environment, resources and the rest of the globe with us to prove our point?! - Well, for the

We're inhabitating a sphere, and truly only scratched the surface of our habitat. In scratching we already have come close to depleting a lot of our resources; Water, soil, air and almost all other resources on the power of liquid energy of oil/gas in its carbonacious form. ... and a sphere esentially has its limits - and so have we occupyning the sphere and trying to eke out a living on its resources.

The sphere's population is growing exponentially and is expected to double again in a generation or two. The sphere can't even support today's overuse - overpopulation - and finally overkill.

As long as our economic and more to the point fraudulent financial systems are tied to growth as their sole support of the irredeemable accumulated debt - called credit - an accident is bound to happen.

Oh, no, no way - our flexible financial management has now developed a hedge against all quid pro pro's. Be sure we've learned from LTCM and won't ever come to see Gordon Brown's abyss again - esentially because we're there already - and can't see reality - only political correctness. What a farce; All the main stream press and media observed this totally obscene doctrine, forgetting their sending and forfeiting their power to inform their clients on reality - and much more to curb the stupitidy of politics.

Same goes for gold - a non topic for the main stream; You've got to keep up the pretense - like a federal reserve note - A Dollar- was as good as gold! ... The jury has already been outspoken between 1933 and 1971 - as to who benefits - and who's defaulted?
Now it's backed by the full credit of the US of A - Only! A concept of utter devastation.
New Orleans is just a very tragic incidence - though maybe a wakeup call for real patriots!

cb2

PS- really didn't mean to post it - it just happened - hope OvS will find a lot to argue.

PPS: The US$ and � are playing hide and seek at the moment ... Maybe tomorrow they may not be in a positionj to play any important role... Gold - ghet you some ---





USAGOLD Daily Market Report
(10/04/2005; 13:25:22 MDT - Msg ID: 136629)
Page Update!
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Daily Gold Market Report has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.

TUESDAY Market Excerpts

Gold ends even in thin but choppy trading

October 4 (from MarketWatch) -- The dollar traded mixed on Tuesday but didn't stray far from the nearly three-month highs hit this week against the euro and nearly 16-month peaks against the Japanese yen.

COMEX gold futures closed unchanged at $469.30 Tuesday on the heels of a two-session decline as investors weighed weakness in oil and strength in the U.S. dollar against what some analysts believe is an upbeat longer-term outlook for the precious metal.

"Gold continues to work off one of its most overbought technical conditions in quite some time," said Peter Grandich, editor of the Grandich Letter. Still, "the fact that a rising U.S. dollar has not given it an excuse to sell off sharply is yet another sign of the internal strength gold has built up," Grandich said.

"The least longer-term resistance is most definitely up," he said.

(from Reuters) -- Turnover was light as some participants were sidelined for the Rosh Hashana holiday and the start of Ramadan, the month-long Muslim fasting holiday.

"Trading is very thin because you have two big players out of the market," said Frank Aburto, a broker at Rosenthal-Collins Group in New York.

Although December gold is $10 below its Sept. 22 near 18-year peak at $479, market players expect the price to eventually hit $500 on inflation worries and other economic factors.

Heraeus Precious Metals said bullion's up-trend should remain intact as long as bullion stays above $458, but it was doubtful the metal can quickly rise through the $482 mark. "These two levels should mark both ends of this week's trading range, but looking further beyond we still expect the gold price to rise toward the $500 level," it said in a report.

---(see url for full news, 24-hr newswire, market quotes)---
TownCrier
(10/04/2005; 15:56:05 MDT - Msg ID: 136630)
TMB Asset stresses diversification of risk
http://www.bangkokpost.com/Business/05Oct2005_biz41.php(Bangkok Post) BUSINESS NEWS - Wednesday 05 October 2005

..."Investing in gold is a good alternative investment as gold is a lasting asset with inherent value although its prices could possibly fluctuate from time to time," managing director Jotika Savanananda said yesterday.

Gold helps diversify risks from fluctuations in other asset classes during economic uncertainty. At the same time, it provides investors with an opportunity to make profits when gold prices go up.

Kampol Chanthawiboom, equity fund manager at TMBAM, said gold prices would likely rise further as demand would increase in light of the weak US dollar.

"India and China will need to invest more in gold while the global supply will not increase from 3,200 tonnes per year over the next three years," he said.

Meanwhile, the US dollar is expected to slide further due to the country's huge budget deficit and sensitivities over a change at the top of the Federal Reserve.

^----(from url)---^

Internationally, the choice is gold.

R.
TownCrier
(10/04/2005; 16:02:14 MDT - Msg ID: 136631)
AmEx predicts fall of dollar next year
http://www.financialexpress.com/fe_full_story.php?content_id=104587NEW DELHI, OCT 4: �American Express Bank (AEB) has predicted the fall of US dollar against all currencies during 2006. It will be more steep against Asian currencies.

Kevin Grice, senior economist AEB, said Chinese renminbi was expected to be revalued further by 2% in the next few months. Thereafter, he said, the Chinese currency would rise by 4% each year against dollar during the next two years.

He said yen was undervalued and was likely to strengthen against dollar.

^---(from url)---^

Protect your savings from a depreciating dollar with a prudent diversification into gold, the universal wealth reserve.

R.
melda laure
(10/04/2005; 18:04:10 MDT - Msg ID: 136632)
(No Subject)
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/robertson/2005/1003.htmlGlobal Warming? Denial.
Fiat money fraud? Denial.
Derivatives time bomb? Denial.
Hubbert's Peak oil Production? Denial.
General indifference to ecological economy? Denial.
The US took 12 years to ratify a constitution... Iraq? Denial.

There comes a point where it is not a question of science: as an old mexican proverb goes, "there are none so blind as those who do not want to see." Some would label this as a kind of psychological problem, but when a whole society is capable of it over several decades, even generations, one has to think it the product of deliberate political effort or policy. Clearly it is a moral issue, yet equally clearly, a majority of the planet's inhabitants are aware of the problem and solution. What has prevented natural market forces from taking over?

An american empire is unnecessary, perhaps because another empire is already in effect, albeit to ill purpose? But this is a discussion beyond the scope here.

So there is room for hope in spite of the many obvious frictions. We are not owners, we merely borrow the earth from future generations. Nobody wins, because the game never stops while life endures. This juvenile phase will pass, and with it the global order via phoney wealth because ecology IS economics, four legged, winged, and bipedal. Plain hobbit sense has not changed since ages past.

Secure your posterity today, and tommorrow.
R Powell
(10/04/2005; 18:16:58 MDT - Msg ID: 136633)
Silver lease rates
http://www.kitco.com/market/LFrate.html Have been climbing some recently. They were up again today. ????
Ned
(10/04/2005; 18:59:37 MDT - Msg ID: 136634)
Can gold be a two-way street?
Question to any and all.

American citizens are advised to buy gold because of the probability of a depreciating 'home' currency. How is it that Japanese & Chinese citizens, we are told, are buying gold in front of a suspected rising home currency?

Likewise, we are told, that Argentina's citizens would have protected their wealth if their savings were in gold at the time of the major devaluation a couple years ago. At the same time many currencies, Asian in particular, are due to go up while gold purchasing is advised.

Does this add up?
Caradoc
(10/04/2005; 19:14:55 MDT - Msg ID: 136635)
Dubai to trade on Saturday?
http://www.the-saudi.net/saudi-arabia/saudi-informations.htmRecollection is probably correct. The normal 5-day work week in that part of the world is Saturday through Wednesday with a two-day weekend of Thursday and Friday. (See "Business Hours" 3/4 of the way down at link above.) Actually, I'd expect them to trade on both Saturday and Sunday and not trade on Thurs-Fri.

Depending on volume, general effect should be to make New York trading less important. A more specific effect would be to present New York every Monday with two days of momentum. Both good things, I think.

Caradoc
Cavan Man
(10/04/2005; 19:43:25 MDT - Msg ID: 136636)
Hey Goldilox....
I live there and could care less. The drugs alone should be a wake up call for you. Wake up!
Flaccus
(10/04/2005; 19:43:36 MDT - Msg ID: 136637)
Ned
The day you can predict to me with 100% accuracy what the fate of any currency will be on, let's say, a five year basis, I will tell you whether the people living under that currency should sell their gold or keep it. Until you can conjure that ability, I will view the type of questions you ask as either misleading, naive or both.
Liberty Head
(10/04/2005; 22:13:52 MDT - Msg ID: 136638)
Controling Avian Flu With A Hammer
http://www.cnn.com/2005/POLITICS/10/04/bush.avianflu/index.html
The next domino to fall is the Posse Comitatus Act.
Gosh, freedoms are falling so quickly now. I really thought we would have put up a better fight. A fearful, ignorant bunch, we Americans are! I was overly optomistic in the past. I never thought Bush could get sons and daughters to level guns on their friends and families for another false promise. Boy, was I wrong. Like a hot knife through butter, freedom is gone.
The sheep want to be sheared so bad, they have become self shearing.

Rattle those dags!
Baaaa

When gold hits a $1000.00, I think I'll start my own sheep ranch in NZ. I'll name each sheep after a U.S. city and market the product to China.
Goldilox
(10/04/2005; 22:59:18 MDT - Msg ID: 136639)
Drugs?
@ Cavan Man,

Oh well, if you don't like BB, it's fine with me. I enjoy the diversion of the emperor's circus now and again.

If you're all impressed with Congress' tough stance on steroids when they turn their back on meat and dairy farmers putting the very same potions in our food supply, I'd reply that the "wake up" needs to take place on a much larger stage than baseball.

In fact, no one ever "believed" steroids enhanced hand-eye coordination (which they don't - most weight-lifting baseball players fail because they LOSE their timing and coordination when they bulk up) until the media got on a bandwagon about it. The sad loss is that surgeons have been using steroids to speed up "healing" for decades, and now that they are banned, career-ending injuries are on an exponential rise. Thanks to media disinformation, it is considered the cheaters' way to enhance everything from split-second reflexes to erectile disfunction - all a load of malarky to defocus us from Congress' electile impotence in anything really pertinent to their role.

Enough on this OT subject. I just meant to report the score for those interested.
Knallgold
(10/05/2005; 00:34:12 MDT - Msg ID: 136640)
Fed's Poole says Fannie Mae solvency not at risk
http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh19842_2005-10-04_21-54-54_wat004110_newsmlInteresting title'sounds like an official denial...and titles are made for the masses.Later in the article he mades some points about the risks.The stock lost Another 4% today.

Topaz
(10/05/2005; 02:11:59 MDT - Msg ID: 136641)
Gold Bonds etc.
http://www.futuresource.com/charts/micro.jsp?s=GC1%21&s=DX1%21&s=TYXY&s=CL1%21&s=&s=&s=&s=&p=D&v=15&b=LINE&d=LOW1,300 odd Contract equivalent Oz got shuffled @ Comex depositorys Yesterday for an Oct total-to-date of 10,500 ...good...and bad! OI for Oct too low now imo for a Physical induced rally (via Comex anyway)

Bond has rolled over, a pause in the upswing? OR a wobbily SM induced flight to "quality"? ...Oil really needs to capitulate here to get Buck and Bond Yield heading Northward again methinks.

The Never-ending Story - was kinda Gold related? My Grand-daughter and I watched some of it recently before we both nodded off. The Amulet, Gold and Oil coloured Snakes entwined. hmmm, I should watch ALL of it!
Topaz
(10/05/2005; 02:33:42 MDT - Msg ID: 136642)
Ear to the Rail-line.
http://stardate.org/nightsky/moon/7 thru 12 Oct is the Waxing Half moon Cycle ...all calm on the seismic front as of this.
Copperfield
(10/05/2005; 03:07:38 MDT - Msg ID: 136643)
Gold industry and GATA
Bill Murphy said some time ago: �You would think the gold industry would want to know everything GATA has come up with because the ramifications of our findings are extraordinarily bullish. Instead, they refuse to engage us or comment on the blatant contradictions we have found.�

My take: indeed the gold industry doesn't seem to be a lot interested in the findings of GATA. But couldn't this be because they (miners/owners) are afraid that when gold goes to the moon, the respective governments are going to confiscate the gold and gold-related assets in which the industry now earns a little money? They are not stupid, I think. Thoughts?
Topaz
(10/05/2005; 03:49:12 MDT - Msg ID: 136644)
Ag @ RPowell
http://www.crbtrader.com/data/default.asp?page=quote&sym=SI&mode=dHi Rich,
Your LR comment got me intrigued enough to go look.
Vol-OI yesterday was 114 and all bar 2 went to metal.
Leftovers from Sept? There might well be more where they came from.
Topaz
(10/05/2005; 03:52:37 MDT - Msg ID: 136645)
Pardon me!
http://www.nymex.com/media/delivery.pdfThey ALL got delivered.
Ned
(10/05/2005; 05:30:52 MDT - Msg ID: 136646)
Holy smokes FLACCUS !!!!
Did someone urinate in your corn flakes this morning? Take it easy BIG boy, sorry to get your nose all out of joint !!

Geessshhhhhhh!

I'll rephrase the question so as not to release such naviety into the atmosphere:


If I feel (and I'm allowed to do that!) that my home currency is going to depreciate should I diverse into gold?

If I feel that my home currency is going to appreciate should I diverse into gold?



Let me tell you something else Mr. Flaccus because you have really ticked me off. You've admitted that no one can tell what their home currency will be in 5 years therefore one is speculating are they not? You are by your own definition a self-admitted speculator Mr. Flaccus.

Nothing in this world is 100% Mr. Flaccus. Nothing. We are all speculating, some more than other. My question was straight forward and I will rephrase it a second time in case you feel mislead again:

Should both American and Chinese citizens be buying gold?



White Rose
(10/05/2005; 06:17:37 MDT - Msg ID: 136647)
Everyone should buy gold
I am going to cheat on the gold for Chinese, gold for Americans questions.

Why do we suggest that Americans buy gold? Because we are weeks away from a collapse that will sweep away the markets: bonds, SM, dollar. Only PMs will stay standing.

I also suggest that the Chinese buy gold. Why? Because their banking system has been used as a piggy bank for bankrupt "favored" enterprises for the last 2 decades. The Chinese are close to a banking crisis that threatens to sweep away the savings of a generation.

The system stinks in every corner of the world. Vote against your local regime by buying gold.
Goldilox
(10/05/2005; 06:25:58 MDT - Msg ID: 136648)
Currency Flux
@ Ned,

Without the acridity of Flaccus' response, I would agree with him that your short-term suppositions of currency "direction" are probably only useful for "induced stability" periods.

If and when REAL adjustments take place, "all bets are off", so to speak.

If banks and/or markets close, even for a short spell, as in in 1933, the "reopening" will unveil many "surprises".
Camel
(10/05/2005; 09:30:17 MDT - Msg ID: 136649)
CD yields
Went to the bank yesterday to roll over a 1 year CD and was expecting to see a 1% increase in the interest rate , but instead there was about a .5% decline. Anyone have any insight into why this might be happening. Sure does increase the appeal of some alternate investments.

By the way, this seems to be one aspect of the FOA scenario that has not come to pass. European interest rates were supposed to be higher than US , thereby attracting long term money into the euro and weakening the dollar, the proverbial "outrunning the bear".
contrarian
(10/05/2005; 10:10:23 MDT - Msg ID: 136650)
While Hills
Hi White Hills
Any update on that valuable interview you had? Maybe it could be posted here. Thanks!

contrarian (09/29/05; 21:56:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 136529)
White Hills
Thanks for getting the interview! Perhaps if there could be some way it could be posted up on USAGold, in the Hall of Fame or Archives, it could be accessible to all. I think that though he was wrong on the timeframe, that doesn't matter--he seems to be an accurate, prescient picture of the whole scenario.

Re real estate, I have a friend who has a friend who's a broker. He said she said the process of getting a mortgage now is now a total joke. Whatever you've got, no matter how bad your credit history, we'll work something up for you. Obviously, it's because of the separation of the lender from the borrower, using various credit instruments, like bundled mortgages, so you're never looking in the eye of your lender, like in the old days, who's going to make sure he can get his money back.

If posting up on USA Gold isn't possible, you can get my e-mail through USA Gold here. Thanks again!
Buongiorno!
(10/05/2005; 10:13:45 MDT - Msg ID: 136651)
@Camel--interest rates

Had the same experience last week. I had some special deal that was doing 4.8%, rolled over to 3.5%....Best I can figure is that S&L, credit unions, and the like have varying needs for deposits as business ebbs and flows for them. Might mean they have less business now, therefore do not need to raise much capital. (What if THAT were true?)

Another possibility is that they may rely upon my laziness, since other insured institutions now go to 4.25%, or $75 per year per $10M yield differential--that would be about two tanks of gas, aggravation, paperwork...they got me! (Probably should have switched.)

Probably why we mostly all own gold--don't have to worry too much about the day to day clowns in the banks and S & Ls. OBTW, banks are springing up all over like gas stations and fast-food joints--and many taking over those buildings when the occupants go bust....hmmmmm filling stations on every corner, some go bust --taken over by banks on every street corner making easy money? Waddaya think about that?
Buongiorno!
Goldilox
(10/05/2005; 10:25:28 MDT - Msg ID: 136652)
CD Yields?
Oh Camel,

Ye of little faith . . . Gold is up, what, 15% PA over the last five years? And no "holding period" requirement, to boot. That's nearly 100% increase with the "miracle" of [com]pounding!

Naw, a 3.5% CD is "guaranteed" - LOL.

Oh, and bond rates today resume their race to inversion.

10YR - 4.35
5 YR - 4.22
Stevens
(10/05/2005; 10:33:27 MDT - Msg ID: 136653)
My Take: On The Seen And The Unseen
My favorite economic writer was Henry Hazlitt. He wrote a wonderful little book called ECONOMICS IN ONE LESSON. The lesson was that of "the broken window". It goes something like this: suppose someone comes along and throws a rock through a store window. What is seen are workers that must be employed to fix the window, and materials that must be ordered to replace the window. What is seen by the layman is great activity, and he therefore concludes that economic prosperity is occurring.

However, to the trained eye of the Economist, the seen is not sufficient. It is the unseen that is important. What is the net effect to the economy? We had a window. All the economic activity is to replace something we already had. Furthermore, the money that's being spent to replace what we already had will not be there to create something new. And all the labor to fix the window will not be employed to work on a new project, such as a new window. So what is not seen is the window that would have come into existence, was it not for having to fix a window we already had.

Now, needless so say, this is a simplistic example, but the lesson is an important one. What may be good for an individual, may not always be good for an economy. It is obviously good for the worker that has been employed to fix the window, but the economy has foregone progress. This lesson is, very applicable today, in light of the hurricanes that devastated the gulf coast.

It is amazing how many economic commentators have not learned this lesson. There is a large constituency out there that believes that the rebuilding of the gulf states will be stimulative. What they see is the possibility of great amounts of money and employment coming into the area. A boom will surely follow.

But what they don't see is that this must come at the expense of wealth and employment elsewhere. Over the next months and years it is a foregone conclusion that the economy will grow less than it otherwise would have, due to the vast destruction that occurred.

How the reconstruction is paid for becomes critical. To the degree it is paid for through higher taxes, money that would have gone elsewhere, will not. If it is paid for through borrowing, that money will not be available for other purposes, plus may add to the deficit, thereby influencing interest rates. And if we reduce spending in one area to pay for this new spending in the gulf area, the economy will only break even, at best. But, the need for all the commodities that are now necessary to rebuild what we once had will lead to higher prices, and or shortages of some resources, with no additional wealth being created.

One more point: growth, interest rates, and inflation, will most certainly be affected due to the governments involvement in financing the reconstruction ahead. We may, or may not, see increased growth in the economy in the immediate months ahead, and be tempted to conclude that this is due to government spending. This is the seen. What is not seen is that if growth indeed increases, it would have been greater without having to spend this money.

Likewise, we may see inflation and interest rates go up (or down) in the future, and conclude this is due to the reconstruction financing. But what will not be seen, is what these rates would have been, had the financing been unnecessary.

For example, let's assume that the real inflation rate is running at 3%, but due to a deflationary trend, the rate falls to zero. but if the Federal Reserve Board increases the money supply to pay for reconstruction financing, the inflation rate may stay at 3%. What is seen is a stable inflation rate. What is not seen is the 3% inflation tax that has just been imposed on individuals.

The lesson can be applied to all areas of economics, from inflation, to unemployment, to protectionism, and so fourth. It is a lesson well worth learning and keeping in mind. We are all indebted to Henry Hazlitt and his wonderful book, ECONOMICS IN ONE LESSON.
Goldilox
(10/05/2005; 10:39:27 MDT - Msg ID: 136654)
CDs vs. Gold
@ Camel, Buongiorno!

Wow, if goldbugs like yourselves are still relying on CDs for time encumbered "savings", it's no wonder that John Q. still flocks to the paper mills and shuns PM holdings.

Might this be an indicator of still-early bull market phase?
Goldilox
(10/05/2005; 10:42:34 MDT - Msg ID: 136655)
Econ 101
@ Stevens,

Beautifully crafted and simply written. This is SUCH an important concept, it gets my nod for HOF!

Growth vs. wealth transfer?

Industry vs. Casinos?

You NAILED IT!
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(10/05/2005; 10:46:05 MDT - Msg ID: 136656)
Since 1973! Proven Reliability, Longevity, Quality and Professionalism ---- Invest with Confidence!!
http://www.usagold.com/cpm/aboutcpm.html

Better Business Bureau Certificate
Goldilox
(10/05/2005; 10:49:14 MDT - Msg ID: 136657)
Daily Show
Yesterday, John Stewart said,

"The Donald is building new Casinos in the wreckage of Katrina so those who didn't lose their homes in the wash get a second chance!"

His other observation:

"The same cruise line charging the government $1300/week for housing "refugees" is advertising a week long cruise for $599 - where you actually get to sail somewhere!"
Buongiorno!
(10/05/2005; 10:51:17 MDT - Msg ID: 136658)
@ Goldilox

"Relying" on yields--no, my friend, using them to meet some goals--yield not too important, just a place to plug along, keeping some peace in the family. Agree with your tangential observation, though, if "we-uns" still diddle with that paper, what must the great unwashed be doing...?

Since I am back in play--Camel--your second point about Another's prediction that the Euro would raise interest rates, thus "weakening " the dollar....what if they don't have to (raise)or, for the same reason that our "yields" have declined, (do not have the volume of business)....? that was what I expected would attract the most interest...no?
Buongiorno!
968
(10/05/2005; 11:34:38 MDT - Msg ID: 136659)
Consolidated financial statement of the Eurosystem as at 30 September 2005
http://www.ecb.int/press/pr/wfs/2005/html/fs051005.en.htmlGold : 149,88 billion euros
Foreign exchange reserves : 165,40 billion euros

Since the introduction of the euro in 1999, the forex reserves of the ECB have decreased from ca 231,00 billion euros to 165,40 billion euros now.
In contrast, the valuation of their goldreserves increased from 99,00 billion euros to 149,88 billion euros.
So, it seems that the ECB uses the increase in the POG as a legitimation to decrease their forex reserves.
It seems that some CB's aren't afraid of a high goldprice.

Randy, Belgian, any thoughts ?
Camel
(10/05/2005; 11:40:47 MDT - Msg ID: 136660)
Outrunning the bear
As I recall , Another used four animal metaphors in his writing , the bear, the lion and little dog, and the rabbit in the carrot patch. Don't have any answer as to why European rates are lower. Maybe they don't have to raise rates to attract capitol because they are in position of strength due to the potential for a dollar collapse. With pan -European unemployment at about 9.5% it appears they are keeping them low to stimulate their economy, while here they have been so low for so long it has set off a boom.All I'm saying is that it was predicted( I think) that the European CB would be able to keep their rates always slightly above the US rates, therefore they would not have to out run the bear , just out run you, (the US).

Goldilox- Even our host here does not advocate placing all your assets in gold. I suppose you don't have any paper investments
Goldilox
(10/05/2005; 11:40:47 MDT - Msg ID: 136661)
Robbing Peter to Pay Paul
CNBC is playing a short segment on "paying for hurricane recovery".

Repubs are arguing for more tax cuts to "stimulate reconstructive growth", while Demos are suggesting that Repub programs to cut low income entitlements to then give the money back to them as "relief" makes no sense, either.

Well, given the "drunken sailor" econ of both Congress and the Admin, I don't expect very many proposals to "make sense".
Goldilox
(10/05/2005; 11:47:00 MDT - Msg ID: 136662)
Investments
@ Camel,

investments, yes - savings, no.

I use a certain portion of my assets for "speculative investment", but not at fixed 3% rates. This is the part I consider "risk capital", and follow paper trails.

The "savings" is in cold, hard money - reliable, easy to convert if necessary, no "holding period", no below inflation "fixed" rates.
Goldilox
(10/05/2005; 12:03:31 MDT - Msg ID: 136663)
Staging Martial Law
http://urbansurvival.com/week.htmsnip:

Many readers are asking what I think of president Bush's plan to impose martial law over whatever areas of the country are necessary should a killer pandemic, like bird flu, hit the U.S. What Bush is suggesting is that there are certain kinds of situations where the military is better suited than civil authorities to deal with some kinds of situations - such as a nuclear terror incident.

But Bush's comments are worrisome to civil libertarians and Constitutionalists who worry that the military's involvement in anything on home soil sets the the possibility of federal control of the country, something outlawed in the Posse Comitatus Act. This is the kind of situation which is ideal for the National Guard, not regular Army. The Bush "logic" is that the military is better suited than other agencies.

We disagree. When a country takes its military and puts it to work within a country - and where it answers to the commander in chief, that's a dictatorship in my book. Especially when it's almost like agencies that should do the job (read: FEMA) appear as though they have almost deliberately sabotaged their charter and blown their mission in order to pave the way for the "use military" argument.

Give Governors and Mayors control of the National Guard - which means if there are enough Army and other line services to enforce martial law, they could be in Iraq ands the National Guard units there be here where they might have been more responsive than the inept response we saw.

Our real bottom line, though, is this: Once we let Bush use military, it's just a hop, skip, and a jump to using foreign military on our soil - something that has prompted people in my circle of friends to ask "How do we take back governance from these people? "

I used to say "Vote!" But, I don't trust machine voting, especially when the ultimate decision is made by a Bush-picked court. A few people I know have even talked about a second American Revolution...after all, the republicans who used to stand for the Constitution, small central government and a balanced budget have all disappeared into the corporate slush. Me and Mr. Mossberg aren't going there. But, we are checking out Libertarian and other parties which seem to have a better memory of what the Framers had in mind than the present power grabbers have up their sleeves. We advocate voting and voting again with our wallets before talk of chambering rounds.

What the Bush administration may not be aware of is how many Americans are fed up and seriously angered (fighting mad, in fact) about (choose your favorite) a) NAFTA/CAFTA, b) Job jacking, c) Iraq, d) disaster response, d) taxes, e) corporate slush, f) the Fed, f) gold suppression, g) the crooked dealings by the politicos, and the list goes on...

-Goldilox

George reminds us that Dubya's use of the National Grad in Iraq paved the way for Federal and Mexican troops enforcing order in Tejas and LA. What a fine coinckie-dink! One is reminded of New Orleans Mayor completely changing his story after a flight aboard the local aircraft carrier in the area to "assist" the locals. Just who is in charge?
Copperfield
(10/05/2005; 12:24:35 MDT - Msg ID: 136664)
@Stevens
Are you familiar with the great economist/philosopher Frederic Bastiat? Hazlitt was inspired be him much. Bastiat also wrote about the Candlestick makers' petition:

'We are suffering from the ruinous competition of a rival who apparently works under conditions so far superior to our own for the production of light that he is flooding the domestic market with it at an incredibly low price; for the moment he appears, our sales cease, all the consumers turn to him, and a branch of French industry whose ramifications are innumerable is all at once reduced to complete stagnation. This rival, which is none other than the sun, is waging war on us so mercilessly we suspect he is being stirred up against us by perfidious Albion (excellent diplomacy nowadays!), particularly because he has for that haughty island a respect that he does not show for us.

We ask you to be so good as to pass a law requiring the closing of all windows, dormers, skylights, inside and outside shutters, curtains, casements, bull's-eyes, deadlights, and blinds -- in short, all openings, holes, chinks, and fissures through which the light of the sun is wont to enter houses, to the detriment of the fair industries with which, we are proud to say, we have endowed the country, a country that cannot, without betraying ingratitude, abandon us today to so unequal a combat.'

(Sophismes �conomiques, 1845)

Bastiat also had a lot of good comments on gold and paper money..
Belgian
(10/05/2005; 12:32:21 MDT - Msg ID: 136665)
@ 986
The thoughts about the ECB's rising goldreserve value versus its declining forex ($ fiat reserves) value, remain extremely simple and straithforward : On the road to FREE PRICED GOLD as RESERVE in Euro(welfare)land !

No need to emphasize again that this is a FACT and not a theory (dream)!

But who cares about this brand new MTM gold-fundamental...with the precious exception of Sir Strauss, of course !?
Federal_Reserves
(10/05/2005; 12:35:12 MDT - Msg ID: 136666)
Coke and Pepsi
That's what we have with the Republicans (red can) and Democrats (blue can). Not much difference except for
the packaging, and yeah Pepsi might be slightly sweeter, but not much difference in the rulings. In this two party dictatorship we have we really only get one more choice than the communists do. They say Bush is a conservative but you would never know what with the interventionist foreign wars, big spending programs, appointments of liberal judges, non-protection of the borders.

Think of this, the United States has been ruled by a Bush or Clinton since 1988 that will be a total of 20 years!
By 2008 when the Bush leaves, and if Hillary is elected in 2008, and Jeb Bush in 2016 it could be 36 years of Bush/Clinton crime family syndication.

Sure hope an independent gets going for 2008. The country is going down the tubes.
Camel
(10/05/2005; 12:48:50 MDT - Msg ID: 136667)
One toothed cat
Recalled one other animal metaphor used by Another. Upon learning that the Chinese government was going to join the oil producers in supporting the purchase of gold he remarked that gold would not be "a one toothed cat"

My view is that Another and his friends were pitching the oil for euros scheme around the Middle East and Saddam got wind of it and decided he would jump out in front and be leader , as is so often the case in these matters. There are some ideas that are just so powerful that no sooner are the words out of your mouth than half a dozen people are off and running with them.

Anyway, this was probably an unintended consequence, and the group pushing the euro was forced into silence for awhile so as not to be associated with Saddam.

Some say the invasion of Iraq was to stop this transition to the Euro, but I doubt it had much to do with it except that it was an added annoyance.Its all about oil.As far as can be told , the US is going ahead and building its permenant bases in Iraq, and neither Democrat or Republican will let them go.
Stevens
(10/05/2005; 13:32:57 MDT - Msg ID: 136668)
Copperfield
Indeed. We stand on the shoulders of giants.
Liberty Head
(10/05/2005; 13:40:26 MDT - Msg ID: 136669)
Coke vs Pepsi?

Federal_Reserves, I am in full agreement with your general point.

Our choice has much more serious ramifications than Coke vs Pepsi though.
It's more akin to death by bullits vs exsanguination.

Better ballot choices have been available for quite some time. These choices are effectivly marginalized, though.
You can lead the sheep to water......
I must conclude our country's march to hell will be ever quicker.

Gold can help provide palliative care for those of us who own it.

Best Wishes


Topaz
(10/05/2005; 13:54:44 MDT - Msg ID: 136670)
Candlestick Makers petition.

Well might the CM's be preparing a petition as we speak! Spinning-Top Doji Days are clearly not good for Business.
TownCrier
(10/05/2005; 14:14:42 MDT - Msg ID: 136671)
Millionaires feel less bullish
http://money.cnn.com/2005/10/05/news/economy/millionaire_index/index.htmNEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Millionaires showed concern about the investment outlook in September, despite being traditionally more optimistic than other affluent investors, according to a Spectrem Group survey.

Spectrem's Millionaire Index fell to an all-time low of 5 in September...

"Millionaires finally have succumbed to the pessimism that has dogged the overall affluent population throughout 2005," said George H. Walper, Jr., president of Spectrem Group, in a statement.

"Their focus on longer-term issues such as the economy, presidential politics and oil and gas prices suggests this pessimism may be with us for some time."

"I believe what we're seeing now is the result of so much bad news: the two hurricanes, the economy, energy prices, the continuing problems in Iraq," said Walper.

"That drives investors to be cautious. But at the same time we're not seeing a huge move toward cash, but continued pessimism could cause that."

^---(from url)---^

Act early and position yourself with metal in hand ahead of the massive roll into gold.

R.
Goldilox
(10/05/2005; 14:19:02 MDT - Msg ID: 136672)
Candlestick makers
@ Topaz,

The candle makers ought to be preparing for more than a petition, as various activities seem to be handing them a "captive market" days.

@ Camel -

your quote:

"Anyway, this was probably an unintended consequence, and the group pushing the euro was forced into silence for awhile so as not to be associated with Saddam.

Some say the invasion of Iraq was to stop this transition to the Euro, but I doubt it had much to do with it except that it was an added annoyance.Its all about oil. As far as can be told , the US is going ahead and building its permenant bases in Iraq, and neither Democrat or Republican will let them go."

I think this statement contradicts itself, especially as the "oil for Euros" movement can be tracked to parallel the "New American Century" docs of the 1990's. If the many US bases on foreign soil aren't for "protecting dollar hegemony", pray tell what they are for?
TownCrier
(10/05/2005; 14:21:41 MDT - Msg ID: 136673)
968 and Belgian, it is the simplest-possible demonstration of fact over theory
Amen.

And having the benefit of first-hand dialogues, I assuredly know you can add Miner49er's name to the short list.

R.
TownCrier
(10/05/2005; 14:30:00 MDT - Msg ID: 136674)
Lithuania likely to adopt euro in 2007; Estonia in 2008, Latvia in 2009
http://story.irishsun.com/p.x/ct/9/id/edf2be20d8f0daf9/cid/baf10b3527f6df38/VILNIUS (AFX) - Lithuania is the most likely Baltic country to adopt the euro in 2007, but Estonia and Latvia may have to postpone plans to introduce the single currency because of high inflation, Baltic News Service (BNS) reported citing SEB Vilniaus Bankas.

Slovenia, which has reported a drastic decline in average inflation in last six months, is a solid candidate to introduce the euro in 2007, too...

Latvia will retain its title of the fastest growing economy in Europe, with GDP rising by 8.7 pct in 2005 and slowing down to 7.5 pct in 2006 and to 7 pct in 2007, SEB has forecast.

^---(from url)---^

More building of international critical mass toward an irreversible structural monetary realignment.

Choose gold for your portfolio, thereby accumulating your own precious reserves of 'critical mass'.

R.
Camel
(10/05/2005; 14:40:00 MDT - Msg ID: 136675)
Its mostly about oil
Its mostly about oil Goldilox. Iraq has huge reserves of oil, the second largest after Saud if memeory serves. The bases theoretically will secure the Iraq oil and give the US a srategic foothold in that part of the world to deal with whatever comes up latter. Preserving the dollar as oil settlement , in my view ,is way down the list.
mikal
(10/05/2005; 14:41:54 MDT - Msg ID: 136676)
Gold wars simmer!!
http://today.reuters.com/investing/MarketReportArticle.aspx?type=goldMktRpt&storyID=URI:urn:newsml:reuters.com:20051005:MTFH39982_2005-10-05_18-44-23_N05512847:1NY Gold Settles Flat Anew in More Light Trading - Reuters - Oct. 5
When bringing water to a boil, the first visible roilings seem to come when least expected.
mikal
(10/05/2005; 14:53:01 MDT - Msg ID: 136677)
@Camel
I agree. Strategic western bases are used by NATO countries too. The forward positioning of weapons, spies or covert operatives anywhere in geopolitical brinkmanship is a viable position until the bills come due. Irregardless of international Zionism.
Gold has a top priority as well, IMHO, because without
U.S. dollar hegemony/int'l reserve status, the current IMS would cease to be with it's headlock on gold and it's mobility.
Belgian
(10/05/2005; 15:01:07 MDT - Msg ID: 136678)
Indeed Sir Towncrier...
And btw...in that same ECB financial statement, we learn that gold-reserve-coins moved from one bank of the ESCB to Another bank of the ESCB. Shall we cautiously call this...re-dis-tri-bu-tion...shall we !? Perhaps...maybe... with a very particular little purpose...or is it only an innocent pass time ?
Goldilox
(10/05/2005; 15:57:07 MDT - Msg ID: 136679)
"It's about oil"
@ Camel,

Of course it's about oil - the Sawbuck is no more than a measure of credit. But it's really about whose banks get the honor of reserve status for all that oil.

If the US$ loses market reserve status, two-thirds of the dollar reserves in the world become over-supply and are instantly devalued. That's NOT going to happen without a fight of some sort.

Notice how the Islamic Dinar chit-chat completely shut up after the tsunami hit Indonesia and Maylaysia, two of the more vocal proponents. Why? At least on the surface, their market prowess was whacked good and hard.

Why were more US carrier groups on the scene for the aftermath of the tsunami than for any invasion in history (including D-DAY)? At the very least, to make sure no other power used the disaster to get a foothold on these oil fields and markets. Rumor has it that teh next oil discoveries are off shore in the China Seas - a source of consternation for both China and Japan.

The Dollar is not an entity unto itself, but rather a "flag" denoting which "crown" is in charge!

The oil is the commodity they want to be in charge of!

That's how I see it . . .
USAGOLD Daily Market Report
(10/05/2005; 16:14:59 MDT - Msg ID: 136680)
Page Update!
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Daily Gold Market Report has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.

WEDNESDAY Market Excerpts

October 5 (from MarketWatch) -- Gold futures closed unchanged Wednesday, rebounding from earlier weakness sparked by U.S. economic data that renewed concerns about inflation. It marked the second session in a row in which gold prices were unmoved. COMEX December gold futures closed at $469.30, well above the one-week low of $465.90 that the contract traded at earlier.

Gold prices found support following the release of the Institute for Supply Management's September nonmanufacturing figures, which revealed a decline to 53.3% from 65% in August -- the sharpest one-month decline on record.

But within the index, the 'prices paid' barometer jumped to a record level, with 58% of firms reporting that they paid higher prices last month.

Charles Nedoss, an analyst at Peak Trading Group, said that the number was "very inflationary" and that "the gold market is trading [on] the perception of inflation."

Gold remains vulnerable in the short term to a correction because of "the scale of speculative longs" and recent gains by the dollar as well as profit taking in oil, said James Moore, an analyst at TheBullionDesk.com.

"Any dips, however, will remain well supported by physical sources as the metal enters its peak demand period," while prospects for further mid- to long-term gains are strong, he said in a note to clients.

(from Reuters) -- Turnover in gold was lighter than usual Tuesday and Wednesday amid a week-long holiday in China, the Rosh Hashana holiday and also the start of Ramadan, the month-long Muslim fasting holiday. "I think the market will pick up tomorrow in terms of activity because people will be coming back" after Rosh Hashana, said Jeffrey Christian, managing director at CPM Group in New York.

Although December gold stands well below its almost 18-year peak at $479 hit Sept. 22, market players still expect it to eventually hit $500 on a host of economic factors.

"The market may be a little bit vulnerable right now for some profit-taking in the near-term, but going out to mid-to-late November I think metals prices will head higher," said Christian. "There is a lot of bullishness."

----(see url for full news, 24-hr newswire, market quotes)---
CoBra(too)
(10/05/2005; 16:25:35 MDT - Msg ID: 136681)
Denial ...
seems to have become the only political correct response to current and ever more recurring problems.

Thanks to "melda laure" I've tripped over a few recent essays by a Gary Robertson - and they've been classic.

Called the old friend today and complimented his achievements - small world catregory.

Still, it seems denial of the severity of "Limits to Growth" of the Club of Rome in 1979 - is now vindicated more than ever. There is a remarkable new book available at source ...

Something we'll never hear from the Cheney/Bush neo cons - as they've already led us down the path of resource wars; A route of total, though imbecile destruction of the world we've known.

Get real for all of "US" and fight for survival of your constitution, freedom, liberty and the last chance to save some of our globe's resources for a next generation.


... and it may be not be for gold alone - though the metal may again be arbiter for honest work - where it counts - localized - not globalized.

See Ya locally - soon -
hopefully cb2
Goldendome
(10/05/2005; 16:59:56 MDT - Msg ID: 136682)
@ Stevens

Once again, a real pleasure to read your article! Keep up the good work!
White Hills
(10/05/2005; 19:06:22 MDT - Msg ID: 136683)
contrarian
Sir contrarian, I talked with Jonathan at CPM and gave him permission to give you my e-mail address. Give him a call and then e-mail me and I will get the interview to you. White Hills
mikal
(10/05/2005; 19:23:09 MDT - Msg ID: 136684)
Gold liquidity
http://www.platts.com/Metals/News/110582.xml?p=Metals/News&S=n Barclay's Offers Electronic Ordering on Precious Metals Platform - Platt - October 5, 2005
OvS
(10/05/2005; 19:25:24 MDT - Msg ID: 136685)
"Imbecile destruction of the world we have known"
Of all the posters on this
forum Cbtoo irks me the most.
Why don't you just learn
proper manners from Belgian
who never is offensive? Where
are your ancester's lessons
of good manners? If you are
so upset about the new world
why don't you start a strong
counter? instead of just blah,
blah, blahing...
Hoping for a golden string of
responses, yours truely, OvS
mikal
(10/05/2005; 19:53:59 MDT - Msg ID: 136686)
ECB rate decision Thursday
http://www.dailyfx.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=3992&Itemid=39ŋine=rss&keyword=article Euro Comes Action Packed With Optimism - FX News - 10/05/05
Sundeck
(10/05/2005; 21:45:32 MDT - Msg ID: 136687)
Is Delphi an Oracle? and other themes...
1. I notice that the largest US supplier of autoparts (Delphi) is looking at filing for bankruptcy...pension obligations could exceed assets by as much as $11B. Whoa! Does this presage the future?

And then there is the fall-off in sales of SUVs with increases in fuel prices...how is that going to affect GM?

2. Posse comitatus and bird flue. Bird flue? Yes, a fully-fledged pandemic would be ugly, not just in the US, but everywhere. However, I suspect a greater concern might be the looming shortage of fuel for automobiles and rising domestic tensions associated therewith? No?

Incidentally, I see that some biogeneticists from Alabama have determined that the 1918 flue pandemic was indeed a "bird flue"...they re-created the virus!

3. The US stock market has had two down-days in a row...accompanied by fairly dramatic falls on the ASX (Sundeck says: "Ouch!") Is this the start of something bigger...US market starting to discount hurricane damage in earnest, as suggested by Sir Boilermaker #136616??)

4. Notice that, lately, distinct changes in the USDX index have not generally been reproduced in the spot POG. In the last few years there was a high inverse association of dollar moves and moves in spot gold. My guess is that real-time arbitrageurs (spot gold to currencies and back again) are no longer so willing to risk their necks. Any other ideas out there?

Cheers

:-)
Topaz
(10/06/2005; 00:03:14 MDT - Msg ID: 136688)
SM Cavalry to the rescue.
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0Big shove down on Buck to resuscitate SM's tomorrow. Will it last? Nup ...90+ by 6am I reckon.
Comex Au and Ag are now all but out of Steam until Dec as both trade the Z Month.

We Watch ...disappointed.
Liberty Head
(10/06/2005; 00:09:12 MDT - Msg ID: 136689)
Laugh, Cry, Or Barf?

The point man for the slickest terrorist organization the world has known will be giving a speech today. Fear will be mongered aplenty, lies will pass with ease and the drums of war will thunder. The loyal dogs of doom will bark "Hail to the Chief" while a nation of shivering federal sheep absorb the show like a sponge.

I'll pray the suitcase with the red button gets lost again and the commander challenges another pretzel.

Ain't this great?

Everybody now�
From the mountains (rat-a-tat-tat),
to the prairies (ssssss kaboom),
To the oceans, white with fooooooam
God bless America (BANG), My home (POW) sweet (BOOM) home.

At least gold can't be brainwashed. Get some.

Best Wishes
Goldendome
(10/06/2005; 00:20:21 MDT - Msg ID: 136690)
The Winter of our Discontent

Ay, Sundeck: Actually, recently, the airlines here have been the harbingers of what may become of many pension systems. (Northwest and Delta most recently.)

The PGC (Pension Guarantee corp) probably will not have funds to sustain itself with out major Gov't assistance if things get really out of hand in the next few years. This "out" is becoming a part of corporate financial planning here in the US. Pay wages more than you can afford; promise pensions and then underfund the program, then when the going gets tough, dump the program onto the government and the taxpayers. Similar financial planning is one reason personal bankruptcy laws here are changing.

Something else - A Univ. of Mich. economist is predicting that Ford, GM, Delphi, will drop 50,000 more employees by 2008; related auto industry jobs in the Midwest could drop by another 200,000! Grim estimates. The bad news would be that economists are often too optimistic. The way things may go, these companies may not make it to 2008! Auto contracts are due for negotiation in 2007, I believe.

The recession should be starting about the middle of this month. Just about the time the first cold snaps hit and the home heating thermostats get turned up to that quadrupled price natural gas or natural gas produced electricity that will need adjusting upward.
At the same time (Oct. 17th) credit card payments are also scheduled to double. Taking the average card debt (I think I recall hearing several times a figure of around $9,000 for a family making $53K.) Take the card payments add them to the increased heating costs and more than a few are looking at an extra $500 a month. HAPPY HOLIDAYS!
And--Did we mention, the new and improved bankruptcy bill, that makes it more difficult and expensive to file, and to eliminate debt.

Then, we have Iran going to start taking Euros for Oil. All of Europe and several Latin and Asian countries will welcome that. But the dollar, our poor bloated, over created dollar - the news will not be good. Dollar demand falls. The fed needs to maintain high interest rates in the face of recession to prevent, if possible, a dollar collapse. So-- it gets worse in 2006. Stagflation as prices rise with a falling dollar and the economy sags under higher costs and higher interest rates. Oh, the gloom, the humanity - the housing market!
OvS
(10/06/2005; 00:32:13 MDT - Msg ID: 136691)
Kobratoo
Just discovered your 136629 post.
How civilized and, yes, reasonable
you sound. What's wrong?
I've been through similar discussions
eons ago, namely in the 60's and 70's.
I've tried in those naive and innocent
days TO DO something about it.
I've discovered since then that all of
us have a little devil lurking within us
unbeknowenst to ourselves, only visible
under certain circumstances, be it self,
family, clan, or country.
Are the Chinese, the Japanese, the Germans
all stupid to take blibs for goods?
Don't bet on it. There is stark selfinterest
at work. It's brinksmanship on their part
as well as the American.
Internationally, it has ALWAYS been a poker
game, with the object to DECEIVE the other
players. In the light of these considerations,
Bill and Chris and company, they are peeking
at our American dealt cards and anouncing to
the world: it's a bluff...is that patriotic?
That's why I called Chris a saint. He is
looking at this Realpoletik problem with a
ach so pure religious perspective.
Of course we want clean air, green and succu-
lent forests, freedom to roam and be happily
engaged in interesting games without dire
consequences to us or others. Unfortunately,
there is this little devil lurking within all
of us...
If have come to the conclusion: The hell
(pardon my French) with all that is wrong with
this world; go do your thing to better it. Don't
worry about shortages: Go nano technology, go.OvS
PRITCHO
(10/06/2005; 01:08:30 MDT - Msg ID: 136692)
@ OVS - - - - Re CoBra(too)
I for one want to read what CoBra(too)has to say.From where
I'm reading his 136681 AND for me it wasn't at all offensive.It gives a perspective from a person in another part of the world.A perspective I'm interested in.He has as much right as you do to say what he wants within the limitations allowed by our host. There is a moderater on site who speaks/acts when necessary --so no need for another self proclaimed policeman. ( I think you just have a long time bee in bonnet with CoBra --to the extent of spelling his name wrong repeatedly)

And what's with this "learn proper manners" nonsense? I'd sooner read someone who's speaking straightforwardly than some ponce dressing up thoughts so you don't know what side of the fence they're on. Go free speech(within limits:)

Liberty Head (136689) great post -- Many other excellent posts today.
PRITCHO
(10/06/2005; 01:16:35 MDT - Msg ID: 136693)
Re Last Post - - - -
I should add that my remarks re "learn proper manners" does NOT in any way reflect on Belgian.(who was linked into the comments I was responding to.) I enjoy & look forward to all of Belgians posts.
968
(10/06/2005; 07:46:15 MDT - Msg ID: 136694)
6 October 2005 - Monetary policy decisions
http://www.ecb.int/press/pr/date/2005/html/pr051006.en.htmlAt today's meeting, which was held in Athens, the Governing Council of the ECB decided that the minimum bid rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 2.00%, 3.00% and 1.00% respectively.

TownCrier
(10/06/2005; 09:08:47 MDT - Msg ID: 136695)
Early Notice -- October Buyers' Group -- The Hungarian 20 Korona
http://www.usagold.com/gold/special/hungary.htmlA first-time offer on this coin! Click URL for more details and discount allotment pricing.

R.
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(10/06/2005; 10:36:42 MDT - Msg ID: 136696)
Only 350 grade BU available, only 350 grade XF available.
http://www.usagold.com/gold/special/hungary.html

October Buyers' Group
crown
Hungarian 20 Korona
Hungarian gold coins

First-time offer! Call today, save today!
1-800-869-5115 (Ext. 100)

Camel
(10/06/2005; 11:53:06 MDT - Msg ID: 136697)
Demand destruction
Hard to figure exactly how the gasoline demand scenario might play out over the next few years.

Many are now talking about reduction in demand causing a slide in the price of oil even in the face of all the refinery outages and production shut-ins.If history is any judge the demand reduction could be substantial.

In the mid 1970's US oil consumption was in the neighborhood of 19 million barrels per day. After the oil price shocks of the seventies and the first big wave of fuel efficient Japanese vehicles, demand dropped to about 17 million barrels per day by the early 1980s, and it never did return to the 19 million barrel level until the late 1990s, even in the face of a rapidly expanding population.

It now stands at a little over 20 million per day, and this is after a 25 year,multi-million dollar campaign of disinformation by the oil and auto industry to prevent conservation. Now with the doubling of oil prices and a new generation of fuel efficient vehicles demand destruction could be surprising, at least in this country.
TownCrier
(10/06/2005; 12:52:37 MDT - Msg ID: 136698)
Venezuela has sold $20 bln in U.S. Treasuries
http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh47642_2005-10-06_05-38-02_t92486_newsmlTOKYO, Oct 6 (Reuters) - Venezuela liquidated $20 billion of foreign reserves, largely in U.S. Treasuries, in the past four months and deposited the funds at the Basel-based Bank for International Settlements, the Financial Times reported on Thursday. The newspaper report, quoting Venezuelan central bank director Domingo Maza Zavala, contributed to a slip in the dollar against the euro and other major currencies, traders said.

The FT said the transfer, a big chunk of Venezuela's $30 billion reserves, appeared to have been done for political reasons and that reports from other bank sources had put the amount transferred at only about $10 billion.

It did not say which currencies the BIS deposits were denominated in.

^----(from url)----^

Transition in the works to a brave new (neutral reserve structure) world.

Choose gold.

R.
TownCrier
(10/06/2005; 13:06:01 MDT - Msg ID: 136699)
Special announcement
http://www.usagold.com/gold/special/hungary.htmlThe BU grade Hungarian coins have sold out. Only approx 100 of the XF coins remain.

R.
USAGOLD Daily Market Report
(10/06/2005; 13:32:17 MDT - Msg ID: 136700)
Page Update!
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Daily Gold Market Report has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.

THURSDAY Market Excerpts

Gold up to one-week high as funds buy

October 6 (from Reuters) -- Metals got a lift as some speculators rotated money into assets such as gold while oil prices slid away from their recent highs and as the dollar weakened against the euro.

"It was fund buying today and it was interesting because we really weren't reacting to lower crude oil. The market seemed to seize upon the lower dollar," said Refco metals analyst Tom Boustead in New York.

COMEX December gold contracts rose $5.70 to $475.

Gold's rise came as U.S. crude hit a nine-week low amid signs that U.S. fuel demand was on the wane, while the dollar skidded to a two-week low vs. the euro on worries its recent interest rate-driven rally might have gone too far.

"I think there is a real unease in the gold market and people are worried about the combination of higher inflation and lower growth in the U.S.," Boustead said.

Oil in early trading sank below $61 a barrel to its lowest since Aug. 4.

"It looks to me like people are getting very interested in the precious metals," said George Gero, senior vice president at Legg Mason Wood Walker. "We have decoupled to some extent from oil and traders are focused on the Fed's comments yesterday about the threat of inflation."

Trading picked up Thursday as some players returned to their posts after the Rosh Hashana holiday, though China still was midway through a week-long holiday and this week also marked the start of Ramadan, the month-long Muslim fasting holiday.

(from MarketWatch) -- Investors "are understandably buying insurance against economic disorder," said Brien Lundin, editor of Gold Newsletter.

And "strong physical demand from India, China and the Middle East continues to provide a rock-solid base of price support," he said in a recent newsletter.

The mindset in these regions has "gradually" shifted from one oriented toward savings to one emphasizing investment," Lundin said, adding: "This change in sentiment could prove critical to gold's push toward $500."

"It is pretty clear that gold is mostly inspired by pure physical-demand expectation," said Nell Sloane, analyst at NSFutures.com. "Therefore, the gold market should be lifted by recent news from the World Gold Council that projects Indian gold demand for 2005 to increase by 33% to 850 tons, due to improved economic conditions in that country."

---(see url for full news, 24-hr newswire, market quotes)---
TownCrier
(10/06/2005; 13:53:10 MDT - Msg ID: 136701)
Gold takes the sheen off platinum
http://www.business-standard.com/bsonline/storypage.php?&autono=202278Mumbai,�October 07, 2005 -- Gold prices have always had an edge on platinum as far as growth rate is concerned. At the end of September gold prices have risen to $473 an ounce, a gain of $58 from the same period last year, while platinum prices rose by $75 to $929 an ounce by September end.

Platinum has thus recorded a growth in prices of approximately 9 per cent while gold surged by 12 per cent.

Experts believe gold will always maintain its leadership in precious metals trade as the yellow metal has been universally accepted as an investment option.

^---(from url)---^
mikal
(10/06/2005; 16:25:03 MDT - Msg ID: 136702)
Threat timed to boost dollar and sagging markets?
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/9614242/ New York alerted to possible subway attack - MSNBC.com - 10/06/05
Funny how this happens on the same day another MSNBC headline reads: "Business Groups Seek Patriot Act Limits".
Hopefully the threat is a hoax.
Druid
(10/06/2005; 17:33:20 MDT - Msg ID: 136703)
Thoughts..

Druid: Did Venezuela's announcement to shift out of dollars and into Euros cause a major liquidity problem in the oil and Ng sectors today? A sell off of some sorts to cover any possible long dollar positions? This is major news and not a word about it on the parrot box.

Just my perspective, I don't think the ECB needs to raise rates because any fears of inflation can be blissfully handled with a higher price of gold in Euros. The Euro as a currency does not need to fight gold like the dollar has too. Therefore, there is no need to defend the Euro currency via interest rate increases which re-inforces the ECB's credibility in terms of maintaining a predictable stance on monetary policy. A very interesting day indeed.
David Linkley
(10/06/2005; 19:06:45 MDT - Msg ID: 136704)
More late day stock market heroics
Today witnessed yet another miracle late day rally in the DOW and S&P 500 indexes just as they dropped thru key technical support areas. A dark shroud of evil is now decending across this once free land. Whispers of oil rationing, more terrorist events in NY, Avian flu quarantines by our military and endless wars are coming treats from our fearless leaders. Got gold??
The Invisible Hand
(10/06/2005; 19:54:41 MDT - Msg ID: 136705)
More overseas heroics
David,
You worry about oil rationing? What about guv'mint taking over oil firms to allow people to face higher oil costs (Please explain how guv'mint can run an oil firm and how this will lower the costs for oil consumers?) and about guv'mint introducing a terror bill allowing for warrentless arrests to allow guv'mint to face the threats (which threats?) of terrorism?
Can't be done? Look at this former colony of the land of the free.

From The Philippine Daily Inquirer

http://news.inq7.net/nation/index.php?index=1&story_id=51261
It's a planned takeover
No martial law; control of private firms studied
Sept 25, 2005
EMERGENCY rule, no; but takeover, yes.
SNIPS
Justice Secretary Raul Gonzalez yesterday said he and Speaker Jose de Venecia had been studying the prospect of a government takeover of key private industries-including oil and power firms and air and shipping lines-after the full effect of the global oil crisis shall have hit the country.
+
The Inquirer reported on Saturday there was a draft proclamation for emergency rule, not martial law.


http://news.inq7.net/nation/index.php?index=1&story_id=52540
Palace, Senate see eye to eye on terror bill
Oct 07, 2005
SNIPS
THE ANTI-TERROR bill is one measure on which the Senate and Malaca--ang [the Office of the President] are seeing eye to eye, with the upper chamber putting priority on its passage.
But certain senators yesterday warned that the bill would meet "rough sailing" in the chamber unless fears over its "all-embracing provisions" were addressed.
"There is a need to enact an antiterrorism bill," Senator Joker Arroyo acknowledged. But he added:
"The delay and difficulty in enacting it arises from the apprehension of various quarters that it could be an all-embracing, catch-all law that could be used even in non-terrorist activities.
"Or that ordinary criminal acts will be given the badge of terrorism and thus fall under the anti-terror law with its easier prosecution and higher penalties. That, masked as [going after] terrorist crimes, it could be used against the opposition."
The draft bill approved on Tuesday by the House committees on justice and foreign affairs has drawn flak because it provides for warrantless arrest, fines of up to P10 million, harsh penalties such as long imprisonment or death, and limits the media's access to suspected terrorists.

Got gold, you asked? What about a gun?
David Linkley
(10/06/2005; 20:28:21 MDT - Msg ID: 136706)
Re: More overseas heroics
To paraphrase Ayn Rand - destroyers of men take the gold and leave behind a counterfeit pile of paper. I agree that oil rationing is more an inconvenience when compared to a police state or a worldwide financial collaspe. My subtle point is that until we fix the money, freedom, objectivity, and acting with moral principles as a nation are fast slipping away. Only gold has provided the bedrock objective standards as money by which nations or empires can endure. God help us for electing all the boobs now in Washington and for not keeping a constant eye upon them. We can still win the day but I fear it will take a severe crisis to wake enough people up. In service to yourselves, your family and your country, buy gold.
PRITCHO
(10/06/2005; 21:09:06 MDT - Msg ID: 136707)
Richard Russells Latest Comments - - -
http://www.dowtheoryletters.com/DTLOL.nsfRichard Russell at his best - -saying it straight.I'm so glad he didn't waste a single oz of energy replying to the stupid & ill informed GATA remarks of a few weeks ago - -

Snips:
CONCLUSION -- I didn't care for today's closing. In the old day when the market was down BIG during the day, they'd often bring it back on a late-tape near the close. If, at the close, the market was still down, I would refer to the action as "burning up their ammunition." That's the feeling I got today. Of course, there aren't any late-tapes these days, but the Dow was down over 80 point earlier during the session today, and then an hour before the close "they" brought the market back -- but it STILL CLOSED DOWN. I thought this was simply burning up the ammo.

What's behind this sudden and violent turn of events? I believe it's explained in the very informative piece by Rob Lee that I've included at the end of today's site (please do not fail to read this piece). Suddenly, the dollar has turned weak, the euro has surged, and gold remains firm, and in its bull trend.

What I believe is happening is that investors, both domestic and international, have collectively recognized that the dollar's in trouble. And if the dollar's in trouble, everything denominated in dollars is in trouble. This concept has such enormous implications that it's almost beyond the comprehension of most professionals and totally beyond the comprehension of the great American retail public.

What, America's "mighty" reserve currency in trouble? The answer is "yes," but it's an answer that few analysts or journalists are addressing. The US population has depended on the dollar's reserve-status and "invincibility" for so long that it has never occurred to them that their debt-laden currency could be slowly losing its reserve status. And you have to ask yourself -- when a nation has to borrow money to pay off its own rising debts, how long can it be before it's currency reflects this dire state of affairs?

My own opinion is that the stock market's weakness is a function of big money leaving the scene. Where is the big money going? The answer is -- away from US dollars. But towards what? Towards other paper currencies such as the euro or even the yen -- but mainly towards tangibles, towards anything of real value unencumbered by debt. And world money is certainly moving toward the only intrinsic (non-debt) currency -- gold (with silver as a second choice).

Is oil a tangible? Yes, I consider oil a tangible, but unlike gold, you can't buy actual oil and put it in your bank vault. Of course, there are oil futures, but I don't recommend futures for most subscribers. This reduces oil to oil stocks and ETFs, including XLE and VDE .

A few days ago I made the statement that this is not just another "emergency oil spike," this is our first primary bull market in oil and energy. Thus, I would treat oil in the same way I treat gold. I'm not trading oil, I'm not timing oil purchases. You take your position, and you sit and allow the primary trend to do its work.
Goldilox
(10/06/2005; 21:26:38 MDT - Msg ID: 136708)
Analyst Timing is Off at Key Market Turning Points
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htmsnip:

Last Thursday, the technically damaged Homebuilder stocks got a much needed sentiment salvo, courtesy of Deutsche Securities who initiated coverage of the homebuilders with a "Buy" rating. This "good news" was followed up promptly Monday morning when Standard and Poor's announced that homebuilder Lennar Homes (LEN) was going to be included in the S&P 500. These two pieces of positive sentiment resulted in healthy daily rallies in the homebuilding stocks. Will the analyst upgrades result in a sustainable uptrend? As part of the crowd, analysts tend to be right and bullish through impulse waves, 3 and 5 of typical 5-wave advances; but the bullishness becomes misguided and dangerous during important changes in trend. The technical charts of the homebuilders are suggesting that after an amazing run, these stocks have seen their top-of-the-real-estate-bubble tops. Now is probably the time to break with the bullish analysts. Tonight I will examine analyst opinion changes near and after the technology market top because real estate stocks are likely to behave similarly.

There is some relatively recent precedent for the correctness of parting with analyst opinion after a major top. Technology stocks were among the most loved throughout their 1990's bubble. They led the market as a continuous rhythm of positive sentiment was drummed into the speculating public by Wall Street analysts. For the most part, the positive beat continued even after the music stopped and the Nasdaq market topped. As the Nasdaq started its trek toward its October 2002 bottom, there were analyst upgrades with a peppering of downgrades. It was not until most technology stocks lost one-half of their value or more that the majority of analysts turned negative on these stocks. While there were a few well timed negative analyst calls, the broad majority of Wall Street analysts were the most wrong at the exact moment when being wrong turned out to be most expensive.

-Goldilox

Marty Goldberg takes us on a trip to the bursting tech bubble to see how analysts reacted during the "crash".

Quite the "Magical Mystery Tour"
mikal
(10/06/2005; 21:55:08 MDT - Msg ID: 136709)
@Pritcho
Good stuff from Russell as always. I'm sure GATA would concur.
But I'm not in oil stocks and oil ETF's, though I respect
that position and I'm sure many here do too. Many of MK's customers are diversified into equities of different sorts, such as Black Blade and believe commodities is the right place and the right time.
If I had sufficient surplus funds, or a less conservative investment approach, I might also dabble in equities or even shift a major portion of my core out of physical gold (and to a much lesser extent, silver).
But commodities have been controlled for a long time. And the case for control has never been greater, and so it will continue. Just because they are volatile at this time does not mean that certain interests are losing control, or not benefitting from the action.
I have spoken before of executive orders, of tax laws that could be imposed, of silver's strategic preeminence in military applications including star wars and precedent setting rule changes in the Nymex and Comex over the years. Speaking of conservative, Another and FOA among others, were major influences on my investment philosophy, as were my parents. Both grew up in the Great Depression in large working class families and participated in WW2 overseas and in factories stateside.
My own experiences take further back still, to the memories instilled by my grandparents, before many or most things, physical and social, were taken for granted. Before political largesse, entitlement spending and gov't pensions exploded exponentially. And before televisions and metropolitan sprawl replaced thinking and respect for the earth.
mikal
(10/06/2005; 22:09:15 MDT - Msg ID: 136710)
@Pritcho
Finally, many make the case that commodities performance is linked to economic performance or "growth", which is measured by GNP, GDP etc. These indicators (GDP now)are now using government money supply growth and spending to show positive numbers to the world, when in fact, the economy has been contracting in terms of real growth.
This is not how you get a bullmarket in commodities, especially with the government sitting on every market, distorting through derivatives and assuring stagflationary years ahead.
As they and regulatory bodies change and impliment rules and laws to suit their whim, such as with the CFTC and the Fed. E.g.- just yesterday it was announced that the components of the S & P index would be changed again. And people are still using old charts as if they weren't apples and oranges and inflation isn't pervasive.
mikal
(10/06/2005; 23:03:36 MDT - Msg ID: 136711)
On changes, natural and man-made
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/willie100605.htmlTwo Shoes and Rogue Event - Jim Willie - The Hat Trick Letter - 10/06/05
As I've said, GDP is tainted for various reasons, such as including gov't spending numbers.
Here, Jim Willie reiterates his belief that because of a "fraudulent" GDP price deflator, "Q4 growth will simply be price inflation falsely labeled as growth, in keeping with the trend of institutional lying."
This short essay is about risk embodied in the after- affects of the two big hurricanes(his "Rogue Event").
It speaks of 3, not just "two shoes to drop" - gas prices, natural gas prices and electricity prices and brownouts.
Also discusses Fannie Mae, the banking sector and other factors, such as distorted GDP and CPI.
Chris Powell
(10/07/2005; 00:05:32 MDT - Msg ID: 136712)
Murray Pollitt says central banks are losing the gold war right now
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/3378Latest GATA dispatch.


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Topaz
(10/07/2005; 02:20:35 MDT - Msg ID: 136713)
Gold, Buck etc.
http://www.futuresource.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=GC&o=100/DX&a=D&z=610x300&d=LOW&b=LINE&st=WoW! ..The Cynical among us might be tempted to view this uptick/downdraft as pent up action after "managing" to get Comex Au and Ag deliveries off the agenda 'till December.

Gold has done very little (price-wise) apart from what is generated within those hallowed halls ...or hollow halls eh! They're free-wheeling Paper now so it can (and probably will) do anything to support the Status-quo.
Topaz
(10/07/2005; 02:32:39 MDT - Msg ID: 136714)
D-oh! .. Wrong Box.
http://www.futuresource.com/charts/micro.jsp?s=GC1%21&s=DX1%21&s=TYXY&s=CL1%21&s=&s=&s=&s=&p=D&v=15&b=LINE&d=LOW
I don't see a big turn in Bucky here with the Bond Yield and Oil not confirming.

We'll see.
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(10/07/2005; 08:55:15 MDT - Msg ID: 136715)
You don't have to stand idly by as inflationary trends plunder you down to the bones
http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.html

gold coins
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Because no one else will do it for you.

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TownCrier
(10/07/2005; 09:11:20 MDT - Msg ID: 136716)
Hungarian 20 Korona gold coins
http://www.usagold.com/gold/special/hungary.htmlCongrats to all who acted quickly enough to take advantage of yesterday's launch of the October Buyers' Group; it has already reached 'sold out' status!

Did you miss out on this one? No worries. Call USAGOLD-Centennial to inquire into the wide array of other fabulous pre-1933 gold coinage and standard bullion items.

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R.
TownCrier
(10/07/2005; 09:29:33 MDT - Msg ID: 136717)
Europe gold hits new 17-3/4-year high, funds buy
http://keyinvest.ibb.ubs.com/ki/ch/en/newsbody.ki?newsid=3981448LONDON, Oct 7 (Reuters) - Spot gold surged to a new 17-3/4-year high level in European trade on Friday on speculative buying amid inflation worries and a weakness in the dollar.

...its peak of the day of $475.40 ... was the highest level since January 1988.

^---(from url)---^

It is only natural and proper that the gold price is rising -- a reflection of inflation and depreciation of the dollar. Such is the way with modern banking and fiat currencies; their fate is to dwindle ever lower in purchasing power, which is never to be reclaimed, because the guiding political and monetary authorities will always print wantonly whenever necessary to avoid a dreaded deflation and monetary contraction at the ebbs of the business cycle.

Although some days can be more auspicious that others, EVERY day is a good day to be acquiring more gold in place of papery savings.

R.
TownCrier
(10/07/2005; 09:38:07 MDT - Msg ID: 136718)
NY gold up on subway news
http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh85573_2005-10-07_14-35-02_n07375400_newsmlNEW YORK, Oct 7 (Reuters) - U.S. gold futures hit a fresh one-week high Friday morning, reversing earlier losses, as jitters over economic factors and a threat of attacks in New York subways prompted speculator buying, trade sources said.

Gold eased at first on a smaller-than-expected loss of U.S. jobs in September, but it later drew an influx of buying as New York stepped up security on its subways following a warning they were under threat of an attack.

Tokyo gold futures soared to a 14-year high Friday buoyed by safe-haven buying after what U.S. officials said was a threat of a terrorist attack on the New York subway.

New York mayor Michael Bloomberg told reporters on Thursday that the threat came from overseas but had already been partially thwarted.

New York has been on high alert since the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks on the World Trade Center, and it bolstered security after the July 7 attack on London's transit system that killed 56 people. Those bombers carried explosives in backpacks.

Many in the market feel gold can hit $500 in the near-term. December gold hit an almost 18-year peak at $479 on Sept. 22.

Meanwhile, the Labor Department said 35,000 U.S. jobs were lost overall last month as hiring in some regions was offset by layoffs due to damage from Hurricane Katrina.

The national jobless rate kicked up to 5.1 percent -- the highest rate since May.

^---(from url)---^
Boilermaker
(10/07/2005; 10:36:46 MDT - Msg ID: 136719)
Trump's Golden Tulip
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20051006/ap_on_bi_ge/emirates_trump;_ylt=AtolZrIKWJt75upbjRgSQ_Wb.HQA;_ylu=X3oDMTA4MHNjNWZuBHNlYwMxNjk0snip;
"DUBAI, United Arab Emirates - U.S. real estate and gambling kingpin Donald Trump is joining forces with top Emirates developer Nakheel LLC to build a tulip-shaped hotel on a man-made island shaped like a palm tree........
The Trump hotel will be the centerpiece of development on the "trunk" of the Palm Jumeirah island, where construction is under way on a residential and retail boulevard dubbed the Golden Mile.
An architect's rendering of the hotel showed a cylinder-shaped building surrounded by four gold-sheathed petals resembling a flowering tulip."

comment;
The Donald is getting aboard Dubai's golden bandwagon. I'm going to make my reservations ASAP :-)

TownCrier
(10/07/2005; 10:51:06 MDT - Msg ID: 136720)
Asian CBs Should Hold More Gold - writes Morgan Stanley
http://www.quamnet.com/fcgi-bin/news.fpl?par2=2∥3=6∥4=20051007095106Oct 07, 2005 - Dow Jones Newswires

Asian central banks should hold more gold, writes Morgan Stanley's global head of FX research Stephen Jen

...says gold good "neutraliser" vs FX risks, especially important for central banks in region that have large FX reserves (for example, Japan, China, Korea and Taiwan)

^---(from url)----^

Does he not think the CBs already know this?

The only purpose for stating the obvious in a comment like this is to help align the perception of the PUBLIC, arming the masses with an easily digestible reason to have higher expectations for the price of gold.

R.
Goldilox
(10/07/2005; 10:55:09 MDT - Msg ID: 136721)
Unemployment
@TC,

"The national jobless rate kicked up to 5.1 percent -- the highest rate since May."

Sec. Snow was just interviewed on CNBC saying that the Sept 12 cutoff for the numbers skewed many hurricane victims from the data, as workers "still on a payroll" at that date were not counted.

One might guess that there were no new filings for UC in the "zone" if all the state offices were still under water.

Isn't it interesting how the tens of thousands of "refugees" will escape the BLS RADAR?
TownCrier
(10/07/2005; 13:44:34 MDT - Msg ID: 136722)
FX reserves, US deficits and global imbalances
http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh90305_2005-10-07_17-58-37_n07408999_newsmlWASHINGTON, Oct 7 (Reuters) - Massive accumulation of foreign currency reserves in recent years, mainly by Asian central banks, slowed in recent months -- with only China still adding substantial amounts of new reserves through August.

The build-up of reserves is one manifestation of the global imbalances in international accounts about which world economic policy-makers continually fret.

These imbalances in international trade accounts and in savings and investments flows are illustrated most clearly in a U.S. current account deficit now in excess of 6 percent of national income.

Following are a series of facts on official dollar holdings worldwide, ranking reserve totals by country and size and compared to the size of U.S. fiscal deficits and bond markets.

* World foreign currency reserves, excluding gold, totaled $3.832 trillion in March 2005, according to the International Monetary Fund. That was up 3 percent from the end of 2004, up about 25 percent from 2003 and almost double 1999 levels.

* IMF data shows 65.9 percent of world FX reserves were denominated in U.S. dollars in 2004 ... down from about 71 percent in 2000

* United States' current account deficit for 2004 was a record $666 billion, or 5.7 percent of GDP, up $135 billion or 25 percent compared with 2003. The c/a deficit was $195.7 billion in the second quarter of 2005 alone -- 6.3 percent of quarterly GDP and down from a record 6.5 percent in the first quarter. IMF expects the gap to rise to $759 billion in 2005 and $805 billion in 2006 - 6.1 percent of GDP in both years.

* U.S. Net International Investment Position, which measures country's total stock of IoUs to foreign investors and governments, was in the red to the tune of $2.484 trillion at end of 2004 -- or 21.3 percent of GDP.

* U.S. budget deficit for the fiscal year ended Sept 30, 2005 is estimated to have dropped to $317 billion, less than 3 percent of GDP, from fiscal 2004's $412 billion, or 3.8 percent of GDP, according the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office. Booming tax revenues were the main reason even as interest payments on the national debt jumped 14 pct, the CBO said. Huge federal spending on post-hurricane relief and reconstruction is expected to inflate fiscal 2006 deficit.

* Total outstanding marketable Treasury securities in Sept 2005 was $4.066 trillion

* Foreign holdings of Treasury securities, both private and public, amounted to $2.035 trillion, or 50 percent, in July 2005

* Marketable debt securities held in custody by Federal Reserve for foreign official and international accounts (mostly foreign central banks) was $1.464 trillion last week

^---(from url)---^

Although the value of gold holdings have been excluded from this overview of debt issued and held as international reserves, it should seem quite natural for a person to expect that gold will take prominence on the radar screen with a rocketing value at such time as the bottom drops out of the U.S. debt market or when the international CBs are ready to level the playing field, whichever comes first (meaning, the latter).

Reminder, over the last quarter the value of Eurosystem's gold reserves were increased by EUR 12.1 billion whereas the net position in foreign currency declined by EUR 0.7 billion.

Acquire gold, and ride the wave of the future.

R.
USAGOLD Daily Market Report
(10/07/2005; 14:48:53 MDT - Msg ID: 136723)
Page Update!
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Daily Gold Market Report has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.

FRIDAY Market Excerpts

Gold at 18-yr high, up 1% on week

(from DowJones) -- A strong technical and fundamental picture took the New York precious metals complex to fresh levels Friday. The benchmark COMEX December gold contract raced to a $479.10 contract high, then settled at $477.70, up $2.70 on the day.

Traders said gold's ability to test and hold recent resistance levels kept momentum going on the upside while new buying moved in amid a terror threat in New York.

Gold was subdued in early trade then shrugged off a rise in the dollar. "No matter how rapid dollar's rise was after the (payroll) data release, gold was not impressed. For every dollar lost, gold was able to recover at least the double," said analysts at MKS Finance.

The Nybot U.S. dollar index rose to an intraday high of 89.31, up 60 points from Thursday's close.

Patrick Lafferty, a commodity trading advisor at Man Financial, said the charts are positive and December gold is likely to see follow through buying next week to reach the $482-$483 level.

"All the bad news or catalysts that would generally cause gold prices to fall have been ineffective," including falling crude prices and strength in the dollar, said John Person, president of National Futures Advisory Service.

"At this point bad news for gold has actually helped it to see price appreciations," he said. "That tells me there is room to the upside and this rally is not over and in my opinion, not by a long shot."

Looking ahead, "gold prices should continue higher into next week."

Gold has four "very positive factors going for it" at the moment, said Peter Grandich, editor of the Grandich Letter.

They are: double-digit jewelry demand growth, abundant investment demand, mine supply falling short of demand, and a "lessening negative effect of Central Bank sales or the talk of them," he said.

---(see url for full news, 24-hr newswire, market quotes)---
TownCrier
(10/07/2005; 15:03:05 MDT - Msg ID: 136724)
Gold zooms to all-time high
http://www.business-standard.com/bsonline/storypage.php?&autono=202441New Delhi�October 08, 2005: Domestic gold prices -- spot and futures -- today touched an all-time high in the opening session, following a $10 an ounce rally in overseas spot prices. The overseas rally was due to fear of high inflation and expectation of good festive demand from India.

Today, standard gold opened at Rs 6,815 per 10 grams...

Pure gold opened at Rs 6,850 per 10 gm....

The earlier record highs of standard and pure gold were Rs 6,780 and Rs 6,815 (per 10 gm) respectively.

On Thursday, overseas spot gold rallied $10 to $474 per ounce. On the same day, the New York December gold futures rallied $5.7 to $475 per ounce, following heavy investment buying as the greenback slipped against the euro.

...Interestingly, the rise in yellow metal prices was despite a sharp pullback in crude prices.

^---(from url)---^

Gold was up yesterday as the dollar slipped, and gold was up again today even as the dollar strengthened.

Forces are afoot that make gold the only choice.

R.
Boilermaker
(10/07/2005; 15:18:51 MDT - Msg ID: 136725)
O&G GOM Shut-In Status
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/special/eia1_katrina.html

Shut-in Status
Date Shut-in Oil
(bbl/d) % of Total
Federal GOM Shut-in Gas
(mmcf/d) % of Total
Federal GOM
10/6/2005 1,202,364 77.0% 6,628 63.7%
10/5/2005 1,299,928 83.2% 6,895 66.3%
10/4/2005 1,349,617 86.4% 7,170 68.9%
10/3/2005 1,391,926 89.1% 7,495 72.1%
9/30/2005 1,467,577 94.0% 7,941 76.4%
9/29/2005 1,478,780 94.7% 7,980 76.7%
9/28/2005 1,511,715 96.8% 8,072 77.2%
9/27/2005 1,512,937 96.9% 7,857 75.5%
9/26/2005 1,527,630 97.8% 7,843 75.4%
9/24/2005 1,500,898 96.1% 7,488 72.0%

comment;
Recovery of production is progressing slowly per stats above. In view of the above one might question why crude prices have weakened recently. My take is that there is greater refinery shut-in (3 million bbd) than crude, hence nowhere to take the crude including SPR releases. The main problen now is refininery outages. Stocks of products are being depleted resulting in continued high product prices as crude declines. There will be serious efforts to import more products to bridge the gap in domestic gasoline/fuel oil production but this will only happen with higher bids in the world market. Be assured this is not favorable for a stressed US economy.
mikal
(10/07/2005; 22:47:17 MDT - Msg ID: 136726)
Energy Choice : Alternative Energy : Energy Independence
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/9622318/Oil alternatives explored - Kent Bernhard Jr. - Business Journals - MSNBC.com - October 7, 2005
Fuel Cells, Offshore Drilling, Biodiesel, Kentucky and Pennsylvania-- No talk of nuclear (common in Europe), clean coal tech. or cold fusion but enough options to provoke optimism, skepticism or both.
Camel
(10/08/2005; 09:13:08 MDT - Msg ID: 136727)
Chicken in every pot
Re: Natural gas shortage. Dare I say solar? A sizable percentage(7%) of natural gas consumption in this country is used just for heating water. This is something that solar does quite well and very economically at todays prices. There should be one of these on every roof in the country.
Chris Powell
(10/08/2005; 10:05:52 MDT - Msg ID: 136728)
GoldMoney's James Turk breaks into the pages of The Wall Street Journal
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/3379Latest GATA dispatch.



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mikal
(10/08/2005; 10:06:41 MDT - Msg ID: 136729)
Flap your wings...
http://news.yahoo.com/photos/ss/441/im:/051003/photos_us_rank_afp/0510031832527kw4e4m8_photo0;_ylt=AvTMxSy5M7sk0ZviuHxPAKwTO7gF;_ylu=X3oDMTA5bGcyMWMzBHNlYwNzc25hdg--?sp=-1&lsp=6000This German bird atop the traditional rooster weathervane during a partial lunar eclipse, seems especially symbolic in this Lunar Year of the Rooster.
mikal
(10/08/2005; 10:08:29 MDT - Msg ID: 136730)
Correction
Make that a SOLAR eclipse!
mikal
(10/08/2005; 10:12:45 MDT - Msg ID: 136731)
@Camel
Re: Solar - Well said. Various water heating units have been available for many years and cheaply too. Some of them operate without solar cells but instead use thermal heating.
mikal
(10/08/2005; 10:25:08 MDT - Msg ID: 136732)
Embraced by light
http://news.yahoo.com/photos/ss/441/im:/050926/ids_photos_wl/r1628798227.jpg;_ylt=Ao9dHaDYK7MuiHp_NRAn6.sFO7gF;_ylu=X3oDMTA5bGcyMWMzBHNlYwNzc25hdg--?sp=-1&lsp=6000Sequel- Free Bird
seeker
(10/08/2005; 10:39:38 MDT - Msg ID: 136733)
Traders shun Iran bourse as atomic crisis deepens
http://asia.news.yahoo.com/051002/3/288nx.html
Sunday October 2, 8:49 PM

Traders shun Iran bourse as atomic crisis deepens

TEHRAN, Oct 2 (Reuters) - Investors are bailing out of Iran's stock market, preferring GOLD and foreign bourses while international pressure ratchets up against Tehran's disputed atomic programme, traders said on Sunday.


Goldilox
(10/08/2005; 10:49:09 MDT - Msg ID: 136734)
Solar Water heating
@ Camel,

I installed "passive" water heating for my pool in SoCal a few years ago that included a 20 year guarantee. The cost at that time was about $4000. The smaller unit for home water was in the $2500 range, about 10% of the cost for solar electric.

It eliminated the startup cost of heating the pool every summer, was useful for cooling the pool water in August and September by running it at night. During the spring and summer, I could heat up my attached jacuzzi in about an hour without the gas heater. On a sunny winter day, I would heat the jacuzzi up to about 85-90 and use gas for the final 15-20 degrees, saving a lot of gas calories.

The main difference, besides volume, was that the home water unit needed an independent pump system, whereas the pool unit tied into its own filtration system.

Passive solar is basically very simple "plumbing", without all the doo-dads required for the electric grid.
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(10/08/2005; 12:44:44 MDT - Msg ID: 136735)
A world of gold at your fingertips...
http://www.usagold.com/buy-gold-coins.html

gold -- a global calling card
TownCrier
(10/08/2005; 13:09:01 MDT - Msg ID: 136736)
Gold
http://www.newindpress.com/NewsItems.asp?ID=IEB20051008090307&Page=B&Title=Business&Topic=0&Sunday October 9 2005

BHUBANESWAR: Soaring gold prices are perhaps the only dampeners for shoppers this season. By every other count, the festive spirit is soaring.

And why are prices ruling so high? Largely because of international factors that have pushed up prices by about 12 percent in just a quarter, say many.

[Hurricane] Katrina and crude prices have made gold a safe investment option in the US, even as an appreciating dollar and the late festive surge are contributing to the price rise in India...

...top market watchers like Citigroup have forecast a rally to $500 by December...

^----(from url)---^

Article is primarily a lame commentary on India's jewelry market, but the more relevant investment bits have been given above for your convenience.

R.
Topaz
(10/08/2005; 15:46:44 MDT - Msg ID: 136737)
Passive Solar.

10 odd Years ago we installed a PS kit on our Pool...the type that is piped up to your roof where the water is warmed via miriad 1/4" black tubes (20 yr warranty). After 12 mths I noticed a heavy water useage and was surprised to find a couple of "fountains" had erupted from said tubes on the roof.
I got the man out and he and I repaired these leaks with purpose designed joiners ...so far so good. At the time I asked him for a few spare joiners ...just-in-case!

One fine day the next Summer I awoke to find my Pool had dropped a full 6". On investigation I found the roof had erupted in a water display that surely must've been the inspiration for the Bellagio Casino Fountains. Water was pissing out everywhere from the tubes.

Cripes! I rang the Company who duly sent out a man. He was absolutely confounded as to what could've caused this wholesale failure of the product and arranged to have the whole sheebang replaced ...assuming a faulty batch of media.

That same afternoon I was disturbed by a screeching noise atop my roof and on investigation found a flock of Sulphor-Crested Cockatoos madly tearing my Solar System to shreds!

Seems that these Free-range Lunatics (normally associated with a cage ..pretty polly!) had discovered a source of water that only required a "peck" and life's nectar flowed free...Buggers!

I cancelled the replacement and it took a further 8 yr's to remove the redundant panel, as I kinda liked the irony ...truly a good example of Murphys Law.

The Invisible Hand
(10/08/2005; 18:58:37 MDT - Msg ID: 136738)
Fri-Sat-Sun-Monday's trigger to the end of the (paper) world
http://money.cnn.com/2005/10/07/news/fortune500/bc.autos.delphi.bankruptcy.reut/
Source: Delphi to file Ch. 11 Saturday
Board set to meet Saturday morning to make final decision, source says.
October 7, 2005
SNIP
A Delphi bankruptcy would be among the 15 largest since 1980, according to the BankruptcyData.com Web site, based on total assets of about $16.6 billion at the end of 2004.

http://www.freep.com/news/latestnews/pm6540_20051008.htm Delphi files for bankruptcy
Saturday, October 8, 2005
SNIP
Delphi Corp., the nation's largest automotive parts supplier and an employer of 14,700 people in Michigan, declared Chapter 11 bankruptcy Saturday after months of negotiations with General Motors Corp. and the UAW failed to produce a deal to stop the financially strapped company from bleeding money.

http://observer.guardian.co.uk/business/story/0,6903,1587819,00.html
Storm clouds gather over world markets
Sunday October 9, 2005
SNIP
Stock markets around the world are braced for bad news from the US this week when official data is published on consumer and business confidence in the wake of two devastating hurricanes, soaring gasoline and oil prices, and softening demand for residential property.
mikal
(10/08/2005; 20:11:48 MDT - Msg ID: 136739)
@Invisible Hand
http://www.gold-eagle.com/forum.htmlThese layoffs ripple throughout the economy. It's a viscious cycle.
I just read this on another gold forum:
� "There was an interesting and unplanned focus on gold this morning on...�
(Equisetum)Oct 08, 13:54
Canada's regular Saturday morning MoneyTalks radio show. The two guests were Dennis Gartman and Bill Gary (whose normal focus is technical and fundamental aspects of grain commodities, in his work on behalf of CIS,Inc. out of Oklahoma City). The main things these two gentlemen have in common is that they prepare frequent viewpoints for influential traders, brokers and investment advisors, and these viewpoints are based on experience investing their own money, not other peoples money. From totally different perspectives, and for different reasons, and without any leading questions from the interviewer, both Gary and Gartman, in separate and unrelated interviews, said their top pick for a commodity play now was gold. I did not take sufficient notes to be able to repeat their reasons for being currently bullish on gold, but the reasoning I did hear included factors and events that have been well dissected on Gold Forum. The part I found most interesting is that a newsletter writer who does not like to be cast as a goldbug (Gartman) and a grain specialist who I have never before heard speak about gold (Gary), were both very convincing in their reasons why we are now into a strong PM bull market. I guess this should be no surprise to most Forum readers."
You can tell the bull market is in an early stage when gold
is a "commodity play" and shallow reasons are given.
The "factors and events" that catch their attention are usually the least important and the latest on the scene. And today there were more headlines blaming Katrina for nagging but "controlled" inflation. Nothing to see here, carry on...
mikal
(10/08/2005; 22:23:22 MDT - Msg ID: 136740)
China- A case study in boom times
http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=4488944 China and Commodity Markets | From Accelerator to Brake | Economist

*Booming China is slowing in certain sectors due to overcapacity etc.
*Likelihood of sharply larger foreign trade imbalance based on declining commodities exports from west to China
*Will see larger implications for commodities and market distortions.
Topaz
(10/08/2005; 23:11:20 MDT - Msg ID: 136741)
EQ Deaths now upward of 18K.
http://aslwww.cr.usgs.gov/Seismic_Data/telemetry_data/map_sta_eq.shtmlFrequency and magnitude reminiscent of the Xmas Sumatra quake.
Hurricanes in GoM, Guatamala, Monster quake in Pakistan .. sad times to be sure.
Topaz
(10/08/2005; 23:11:44 MDT - Msg ID: 136742)
EQ Deaths now upward of 18K.
http://aslwww.cr.usgs.gov/Seismic_Data/telemetry_data/map_sta_eq.shtmlFrequency and magnitude reminiscent of the Xmas Sumatra quake.
Hurricanes in GoM, Guatamala, Monster quake in Pakistan .. sad times to be sure.
ge
(10/09/2005; 03:41:27 MDT - Msg ID: 136743)
Ukraine to begin crude oil shipments via Odessa pipeline next yr
http://www.ukrainianjournal.com/index.php?w=article&id=1368KIEV, Sept. 12 - Ukraine is getting ready to begin shipments of Caspian Sea crude via Odessa-Brody oil pipeline to markets in Europe as soon as next year, an official at Naftogaz Ukrayiny said Monday.

Odessa-Brody, which was originally designed to move the Caspian crude, had last year started to move Russian crude from Brody to Odessa, reversing the original plans amid political pressure from Russia.
slingshot
(10/09/2005; 06:16:21 MDT - Msg ID: 136744)
Avian Influenza A (H5N1)
www.cdc.gov/fluGet Informed.
Slingshot-----<>
slingshot
(10/09/2005; 06:47:17 MDT - Msg ID: 136745)
Flu
www.cdc.govJust like the gov. Give you number to go to and when you try it, It does not work. Tells you something.
Slingshot---<>
slingshot
(10/09/2005; 06:51:34 MDT - Msg ID: 136746)
(No Subject)
http://www.cdc.govOne more try.
Goldilox
(10/09/2005; 09:21:57 MDT - Msg ID: 136747)
Antiviral Drugs: Summary of Side Effects
http://www.cdc.gov/flu/protect/antiviral/sideeffects.htm@ slingshot,

snip:

Amantadine and Rimantadine

Among some healthy adults and children, side effects can include central nervous system (CNS) side effects such as nervousness, anxiety, difficulty concentrating, and lightheadedness, and gastrointestinal side effects like nausea and loss of appetite. CNS side effects happen more often among persons taking amantadine than among persons taking rimantadine. Among some other persons with long-term illnesses, more serious side effects, such as delirium, hallucinations, agitation, and [asset?] seizures, can occur.

Goldilox:

Sounds like gubmint officials have been "partying" on this antiviral cocktail!

Boy, this site is teeming with Big Pharma hogwash - no info about keeping a healthy immune system, eating healthily, avoiding unnecessary physical contact: the most effective behaviors to avoid vectors and infection.

Take a pill and all will be well! Oh, and if you got sick from the vaccination last season, sorry, just skip your meds this year.
Goldilox
(10/09/2005; 09:28:08 MDT - Msg ID: 136748)
Gov't site
@ slingshot,


No offense, my friend, but I think you showed us more about your pre-caffeinated morning internet skills than gubmint site management.

Those of us who post before we brew have all "got the tee-shirt" at one time or another! LOL

(:^) G
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(10/09/2005; 11:50:24 MDT - Msg ID: 136749)
SECOND EDITION: Newly Updated -- Written for Today's Market
http://www.abcs-of-gold-investing.com/

Gold Investing - Second Edition
Caradoc
(10/09/2005; 12:55:07 MDT - Msg ID: 136750)
two holidays
As US holidays that are not celebrated elsewhere, tomorrow (Columbus day) and Nov 11th (Veteran's Day) should to at least some extent serve as examples of how things will be when Dubai begins weekend trading of gold while the New York is closed. Any surge in POG will give new York a choice: accept the higher level or be more obvious than ever about knocking it back down.

Should be interesting....

Caradoc
slingshot
(10/09/2005; 14:32:17 MDT - Msg ID: 136751)
Goldilox
Homer Simpson has better internet skills than I do for sure. Once you post it.It's over and everybody knows your name. I thought nobody would notice ;0)
Slingshot---------<>
Sundeck
(10/09/2005; 18:46:17 MDT - Msg ID: 136752)
Speaking of Homer Simpson...
http://www.ghosttownexplorers.org/california/homer/homer.htm#bmark...check out his gold mine at this site...

;-)
Goldilox
(10/09/2005; 21:47:53 MDT - Msg ID: 136753)
Gold Signals the End of the Commodities Bull Run: Matthew Lynn
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000039&sid=aeSz6IaIPGi0snip:

Oct. 10 (Bloomberg) -- There are two commodities that stop traders from thinking straight: oil and gold.

Oil already has everyone worried about a return to the depressed 1970s. Now it is the turn of gold. In the past few weeks, the shiny, hard metal has sprung to life, raising the value of mining giants such as Anglo American Plc. At more than $470 an ounce, it is at levels unseen for almost two decades.

Whatever the financial jeremiahs may think, the gold rally isn't telling us that the global economy is about to descend into hyperinflation. Nor is it saying paper money is worthless, and people are hoarding something more reliable.

It just tells us there is too much cheap money floating around. The price of almost every other commodity has already exploded. It was only a matter of time before gold had its turn.

The increase in gold prices probably signals the end of an inflationary period, not the start. The rising price of gold looks like the last gasp of the commodities bull market.

``The prevailing view is that gold is rising because it's a hedge against some kind of financial Armageddon,'' said Richard Cookson, strategist at HSBC Holdings Plc in London, in a telephone interview. ``Unfortunately there isn't any real evidence to support that view.''

-Goldilox

A little tightness in the shorts? Bloomberg is sure trying to talk gold back down!
PRITCHO
(10/09/2005; 23:00:36 MDT - Msg ID: 136754)
Re Antiviral Drug for Birdflu - - -
Several weeks ago I started looking at getting a supply of antiviral drug for our family-2 adults a teen.The current drug of choice (availability)is called Tamiflue (Roach)Govts world wide do NOT have any where near enough supplies to innoculate their populations should a worse case event happen.(Australia only has 4 million doses)

I checked out American pharmaceutical outlets on the web & came up with supplies for a cost of US$117 for 10 x75mg tablets(2 tabs a day for 5 days.)X 3 in family comes to US$351.

In Australia I found an online Chemist that would supply for A$48 inclusive of postage X 3 A$144 or US$109!However a script would be needed & supplies were limited.

As we were going to Singapore for a weeks holiday I phoned & ordered the supplies from the Airport Pharmacy there. The
cost - - S$51 X 3 (S$153) or US Dollars $90.84!!! No Fuss except I had to pick them up on our way home to comply with their laws.(Use by date 12/08)

I hope the above opens some eyes as to the GIANT RIP OFF that occurs with US pharmaceuticals on US soil.How are these A$$holes allowed to get away with such blatent behaviour?
Sundeck
(10/09/2005; 23:09:45 MDT - Msg ID: 136755)
Bloomberg gold article - Matthew Lynn
@Goldilox...good one, Sir Goldie...this guy knows how to spin a yarn...tightness in the shorts, indeed...

That article sure contains some interesting bits of misinformation...

1. Gold is not a "shiny, hard metal"...it is a brilliant, soft metal...a universal symbol of wealth and security.

2. It has not "sprung to life"...it has been in an upward trend for five years.

3. In one breath he says we needn't worry about inflation and in the next he says "there is just too much cheap money floating around". I wonder what he thinks "inflation" is???

4. He says: "The price of almost every other commodity has already exploded. It was only a matter of time before gold had its turn." Wrong again! Amongst the metals, copper, zinc, lead and nickel began there upward price-trends about two to three years after gold began its present up-trend. None have "exploded"...

5. He says: "The increase in gold prices probably signals the end of an inflationary period, not the start. The rising price of gold looks like the last gasp of the commodities bull market." Did he say "the end of an inflationary period"?? After everyone (including Big Ali G himself) has been telling us that inflation has been low and contained!!! Sure, in a sense he is right...it IS the end of an inflationary period...that is, the "end" that comes first = "the beginning".

I wonder how much these guys get paid for writing guff like that? Looks like the "last gasp" of some goof who is short the commodities market...long on bull and short on sense.

:-)
Liberty Head
(10/10/2005; 00:23:46 MDT - Msg ID: 136756)
Re: PRITCHO, Birdflu

The cost of FDA oversight is the primary reason for higher drug prices in the USA. Your numbers reflect a truth few folks are aware of. For every dollar worth of product, there is an additional $3 for FDA oversight.
It's a cleverly hidden tax. The gov't gets bigger while big pharma takes the heat. If big pharma fingers the gov't, they risk losing patent applications.

We can all thank our lucky stars the FDA hasn't classified gold as a drug. Get some!

Best Wishes
PRITCHO
(10/10/2005; 02:06:17 MDT - Msg ID: 136757)
On A Lighter Note - - - (Seeing everyone's cashed out & Gone on Holiday)
A middle aged man bought a brand new Holden Monaro.(A homegrown GM Australian Car) He took off down the road, pushed it up to 130 kmph,and was enjoying the wind blowing through his (thinning) hair. "This is great," he thought and accelerated to an even higher speed. But as he looked in his rear-view mirror, he saw there was a Police Car behind him, red and blue lights flashing.

"I can get away from him with no problem" thought the man and he floored it some more, and flew down the road at over 210 kmph to escape being stopped. Then he thought
"What the hell am I doing? I'm too old for this kind of thing" and he pulled over to the side of the road, and waited for the Police car to catch up with him. The Policeman pulled in behind the Monaro and walked up on the driver's side.

"Sir my Shift ends in five minutes and today is Friday the 13th. If you can give me a good reason as to why you were speeding that I've never heard before, I'll let you go."

The man looked up at the Policeman and said, "Last week my wife ran off with a Policeman, and I thought you were bringing her back."

The Policeman said, "Have a nice day."

Topaz
(10/10/2005; 02:12:00 MDT - Msg ID: 136758)
Bonds.
http://www.freebuck.com/bonds.shtmlIs it really any wonder Gold is doing so well here?

Look at the Yield curve, notice Fridays 30-10 spread action, there getting to the point where it's simply NOT an option to hold anything longer than 3mo and the only realistic option (as Cash is NOT a realistic option given the high 3mo) ...is Gold 'n Silver.
Topaz
(10/10/2005; 02:41:12 MDT - Msg ID: 136759)
...and looking @ the SM's
http://www.freebuck.com/us.shtmlThere might well be a few this week who's "needs" might not even be met via an attractive 3mo!
Sundeck
(10/10/2005; 04:07:24 MDT - Msg ID: 136760)
Why the Fed has no other alternative but to print money!
http://www.ameinfo.com/69637.htmlLatest from Marc Faber...

:-)
Sundeck
(10/10/2005; 04:46:57 MDT - Msg ID: 136761)
'Tis an ill wind that blows nobody any good...
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/10/science/10arctic.html?th&emc=thSnip:


"...

As Polar Ice Turns to Water, Dreams of Treasure Abound

By CLIFFORD KRAUSS, STEVEN LEE MYERS, ANDREW C. REVKIN and SIMON ROMERO
Published: October 10, 2005

CHURCHILL, Manitoba - It seems harsh to say that bad news for polar bears is good for Pat Broe. Mr. Broe, a Denver entrepreneur, is no more to blame than anyone else for a meltdown at the top of the world that threatens Arctic mammals and ancient traditions and lends credibility to dark visions of global warming.

Still, the newest study of the Arctic ice cap - finding that it faded this summer to its smallest size ever recorded - is beginning to make Mr. Broe look like a visionary for buying this derelict Hudson Bay port from the Canadian government in 1997. Especially at the price he paid: about $7.

By Mr. Broe's calculations, Churchill could bring in as much as $100 million a year as a port on Arctic shipping lanes shorter by thousands of miles than routes to the south, and traffic would only increase as the retreat of ice in the region clears the way for a longer shipping season.
..."

Sundeck: A brave new world indeed as we head towards the hurried peak of the interglacial...

Man...the "bad-weather animal", Hell-bent on making the weather as bad as can be...

:-(
Camel
(10/10/2005; 04:48:16 MDT - Msg ID: 136762)
Interest rates
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=agHLt5JIrvVU&refer=usTalk about easy money. Japan's interest rates have been near zero for four years. Meanwhile, Japan is one of the few places where the population has gone into decline, not just a lower rate of increase, but actual decline. Hard to imagine a robust domestic economy with a declining population , so it must be largely export driven. The biggest problem over there is still said to be the cramped living quarters, and they seem to be trying to solve the social security issues by using robotics


snip:

Bank of Japan governor Toshihiko Fukui said on Oct .3 that the Japanese recovery is" fully sustainable." His comments came less than a week after he indicated the central bank may end its four year policy of holding interest rates borrowing costs near zero, forcasting the deflation that has been stunting Japan's economy for more than seven years may cease by year end.
Topaz
(10/10/2005; 05:04:47 MDT - Msg ID: 136763)
A Deflation primer...via Sundecks Link.
http://www.elliottwave.com/deflation/These guys' have their heads screwed on imo.

Psychology is the bread and butter of Markets, not given anywhere near enough attention nowadays with "futures" tending to browbeat their way to inflationary expectations.

Riskless T's ...needing mountains of Derivatives to maintain the illusion ...tick-tock!
makcumka
(10/10/2005; 08:16:11 MDT - Msg ID: 136764)
Construction Materials - Inflation?
Been working in the industry (commercial / heavy construction) for 10+ years, and have never seen a situation similar to what is happening now as far as the supply of construction materials.

Everything that uses steel (pipe, reinforcing bars, structural steel) is up 25% in last 2-3 months. Concrete is also up about 20% and contractors are forced to place orders for trucks 3-4 weeks before the pour (used to be 1-2 days abotu a year ago). PVC and other plastic pipe is not available. This morning got 9 (!) letters from various pipe manufacturers, referencing shortage of resin to produce pipe, and steep increases for cost of resin. Noone will guarantee price or delivery, unless it is in stock and ready to ship. So far, PVC pipe went up 25-40% in last 2 months. Locally, dirt used for fill is up to around $14/yard, from $6/yard a year ago. Combine that with increases in diesel, oils, etc. - construction industry is in unfamiliar territory, not being able guarantee price and schedule. All of this forces contractors to include contingency money in their budgets to try and offset future price increases and to control schedule. Which results in much higher construction cost to the municipalities and private owners.

Result - almost double for construction costs since a year ago. The $256 (?) bil highway bill will only be enough for half of the projects it was supposed to fund, if prices level off now. With rebuilding effort in gulf coast area it is very unlikely.

Finding skilled labor is another problem, with really skilled people leaving construction industry to build housing, but this is another problem.
jenika
(10/10/2005; 08:45:22 MDT - Msg ID: 136765)
A Quick question..
I have been following the price of krugerands for a while now and have noticed here in Australia the difference between the buy and sell price has gone up from around $80 to $90 in October.
Is this happening everywhere or just Australia? Is this a supply and demand issue ? Anyone know?
Regards
The Hoople
(10/10/2005; 09:24:42 MDT - Msg ID: 136766)
Refco scandal pops silver??
Was it coincidence that when the Refco futures scandal hit the wire silver immediately popped 10 cents? Could there be fire behind yet another smoke in the silver/gold futures?

Mackumka: Wait until the winter electric and heating bills kick in for these steel and resin manufacturers. Then come the insurance renewal policies that reflect the Gulf production wipeout.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(10/10/2005; 09:41:06 MDT - Msg ID: 136767)
Especially designed for those who are taking their first step...
http://www.usagold.com/gold/special/starter.html

gold ownership starter kit
TownCrier
(10/10/2005; 10:23:05 MDT - Msg ID: 136769)
China retail sales up 14.2% year on year during Golden Week
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_asiapacific_business/view/172486/1/.htmlBEIJING : Chinese spent some 270 billion yuan (33.3 billion dollars) during the week-long National Day holiday, up 14.2 percent from last year's "Golden Week" festivities.

Retail sales of consumer goods in the urban regions of Beijing, Chongqing, Guangdong, Hebei, Jilin and Sichuan were up between 18 percent and 41 percent over the same week last year, the Ministry of Commerce said on its website.

Food and drink industries were the biggest beneficiaries of the week-long holiday that officially ended Friday, with sales up from between 21 percent to 50 percent depending on the region, it said.

China has three "Golden Week" holidays a year, a practice that began in 1999 in an effort to stimulate consumer spending.

The holidays fall on the October 1 National Day, the traditional Lunar New Year Spring Festival normally in late January or February and the May 1 Labor Day holiday.

^----(from url)---^

Three "Golden Weeks" per year to help foster domestic demand and economic stimulation. They certainly picked an auspicious name for it all.

The Chinese collectively have a lot of cash to push prices around. Is it any wonder that the price of gold is rising, especially now that the Chinese government has been easing its people in that direction with their slow and steady gold market liberalizations?

Reading all the signs over recent years, I take it as almost a certainty, in the absence of an official proclamation (which only comes after-the-fact), that the Chinese central bank has transition to a free-gold MTM regime in mind, and that course is set for the future structure of its international reserves. This is how all the pieces fit -- how could it be otherwise?

R.
CoBra(too)
(10/10/2005; 11:40:47 MDT - Msg ID: 136770)
Global Warming - A Hoax? ... Revisited
I'm at a loss - Loving Puplava's show ... and now have met up with the same denial, disguised as contrarian
- or is contrary to so'called contrarians? - Oh, No, That's not it in my humble view ...


It does seem to me that some US (and only few other) scientists are now denying the reality of global warming - thanks to CO2 emissions; It is sea, land or air the effects are not to be dismissed anymore.

The changes in weather "cycles", have never happened at a pace we are experiencing now. The enrichment of CO2 (50% of our man made emissions) in oceans has already altered the HP of by .1 of a percent.
It causes some species to move north - by about 250 miles by decade and other signs of stress are not to be taken lightly.

Well, I don't have time to go into details - in case you have please take some time to listen to the real experts :

http://www.globalpublicmedia.com/topics/climate_change


Oh, yes it's great to have some gold - though air, water and soil will eventually become more of a necessity ...

than even Carlisle, Halliburton, cfr, skull & bones et al and of course not the Bilderbergers, though my new found ex-friend, Christian not, nor Gott Erhalte - quite a strong and exceptional presence - leading to OvS, will probably never come to grips with his own realities.

The last paragraphs of this post can be in reality deleted - as I'm sick and tired of really idiotic comments, which the history of this poster has proved is his main game.

Is there any possibilty that this guy is legit-?! I have to doubt it ... But all of that is beside the point ...

The US is in total denial of underlying hard facts.

No, let me ameliorate the fact - the US has attacked a country hosting the second largest known oil reserves on the globe. The fact was that a bloody tyrant was ruling this place by minority ... another fact is that the tyrant was installed by the US/CIA after they had to declare bankruptcy in Iran and left the Shah Reza Pawlevi to his own resorces.

What has happened then may just be a prelude to what is going to happen tomorrow.

...

OK - sorry - I'll quit right here - Thank you and it's been a pleasure to offload some of my real frustations - though don't worry - from here on it will be only positive - whenever that kind of new delusion will come ... home?
TownCrier
(10/10/2005; 11:42:26 MDT - Msg ID: 136771)
And the 2005 Nobel Prize for Economics goes to....
http://www.canada.com/ottawa/ottawacitizen/news/story.html?id=8735aaa8-37c4-447c-a0eb-f196dd45f853October 10, 2005
STOCKHOLM, Sweden (AP) - Israeli-American Robert J. Aumann and American Thomas C. Schelling won the 2005 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences on Monday for their work on game theories that help explain political and economic conflicts from arms races to price wars.

"Why do some groups of individuals, organizations and countries succeed in promoting co-operation while others suffer from conflict?" the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences said.

"The repeated-games approach clarifies the raison d'etre of many institutions, ranging from merchant guilds and organized crime to wage negotiations and international trade agreements," the citations said.

...The academy, in its citation, lauded Schelling for showing "that a party can strengthen its position by overtly worsening its own options, that the capability to retaliate can be more useful than the ability to resist an attack, and that uncertain retaliation is more credible and more efficient than certain retaliation."

Those insights, the academy said, "have proven to be of great relevance for conflict resolution and efforts to avoid war."

"In many real-world situations, co-operation may be easier to sustain in a long-term relationship than in a single encounter," the academy said.

Game theory, which is often used in a political or military context to explain conflicts between countries, can also be applied to the business world.

The economics prize, worth 10 million kronor ($1.5 million Cdn), is the only one of the Nobel awards not established in the will of Swedish industrialist Alfred Nobel, the inventor of dynamite. The medicine, physics, chemistry, literature and peace prizes were first awarded in 1901, while the economics prize was set up separately by the Swedish central bank in 1968.

^----(from url)---^

Off the cuff, in light of the above remarks regarding long-term relationships and cooperation, it does seem reasonable to expect that the relatively "cooperative" international regime of MTM "old-as-bones" free-gold would eminate from Old Europe and Ancient China, whereas youthful America still thinks and resists in short terms of one-off encounters.

R.
Goldilox
(10/10/2005; 12:16:07 MDT - Msg ID: 136772)
Global Warming
@ Cobra(too),

Actual denial of global warming falls into a pretty narrow category, most proponents of which suggesting we are seeing "normal fluctuation".

Unfortunately, this attitude tends to dismiss the issue, ignoring that even short term variations (on a massive scale) will likely cause very serious effects to coastlines, weather, etc. - things that still needs to be addressed, no matter what the mechanism.

I think there are a lot of important viewpoints that suggest while the warming is real, "greenhouse gases" still remain to be proved as the mechanism. . . especially given that data from Venus probes completely overturned Carl Sagan's "greenhouse heating" Venusian arguments.

There are a lot of other highly potential factors, not the least of which is the Sun's unexplained extra-cyclic activity in the last few decades.

Catastrophists, like McCanney, believe that global warming is a long-term return from the "nuclear winter" effects of a close encounter with a very large celestial object.

This argument will neither be solved nor go away in the near future.

By the way, I especially like the ECO-CITIES piece "Global Warming and the Elephant in the Living Room" at your posted link.
TownCrier
(10/10/2005; 13:56:05 MDT - Msg ID: 136773)
Gold at all-time high, sniffs Rs 7000 mark
http://www.business-standard.com/bsonline/storypage.php?&autono=202594Mumbai/ New Delhi,�October 11, 2005 -- Unsatiated domestic demand coupled with oil price rise, hurricane woes and a projected weakening of the dollar pushed standard gold prices to an all-time high today at Rs 6,990 per 10 gm in Mumbai.

The yellow metal rose to a new near-18-year high in Europe on Monday and was seen hitting the next big level of $480 an ounce before marching higher as funds continued to buy amid inflation worries and good physical demand.

The country's [India] gold consumption was up a whopping 47 per cent to 277 tonne in the second quarter of the current fiscal compared with the year-ago figure.

Demand from domestic investors was up by an impressive 74 per cent, while jewellery demand soared 42 per cent.

Market players believe that the bullish trend is likely to get support from India's festive demand and inflation fears. While it cooled off after the peak today, the rise is likely to continue with no major US data, except trade deficit on October 13, scheduled for release this week.

An analyst said that Morgan Stanley suspects the latest surge in gold prices may be due to new purchases of gold by several Asian central banks.

^---(from url)---^

Asian central banks are certainly overweight on dollars and bonds. Diversification into physical gold reserves should become a prominant, natural feature on the gold market landscape for years to come.

R.
contrarian
(10/10/2005; 14:02:25 MDT - Msg ID: 136774)
Dow Transports
Dow down 52pts.
Dow transports down also.
And on Columbus Day holiday!
Does not bode well.
Topaz
(10/10/2005; 14:16:58 MDT - Msg ID: 136775)
BrotherBear Jack Chan chimes in.
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/chan/chan101005.htmlGood TA imo tags $425 retrace.
Lots depend on Buck/Bond confirmation.

Virtually no metal obligations @Comex 'till Dec.

Bullion entry point of the Millenium dead ahead methinks.
TownCrier
(10/10/2005; 14:20:23 MDT - Msg ID: 136776)
Gold, next stop $500/oz?
http://www.mineweb.net/sections/gold_silver/500069.htmJOHANNESBURG (Mineweb.com) --The dollar gold price has risen by more than $50/oz since mid-July, with some still calling for further gains, though not before correction.

...Longer term there are not many reasons why the gold price should fall, according to John Meyer, a resource analyst at Numis Securities in London.

Meyer points to production falls in South Africa (still the world's largest producer), inflation fears in the US and increasing physical demand out of Asia as some of the many factors fuelling the gold price.

"I think there is a trend for it (gold price) to track steadily upwards and that is a pretty rare thing for me to say," Meyer told Mineweb.

^---(from url)---^
contrarian
(10/10/2005; 14:36:33 MDT - Msg ID: 136777)
reasons for uprise in gold
I have also heard that buying from Mideast is up, as shieks are flush with oil money, in addition, of course, to buying from Asia.
mikal
(10/10/2005; 14:59:06 MDT - Msg ID: 136778)
Gold awareness is a "heads up"
http://www.fortune.com/fortune/investing/articles/0,15114,1115485,00.htmlWhy Gold Is on the Go - Metals Watch - Corey Hajim - Oct 10
"Interview with JP Morgan Global Metals Strategist Jon Begtheil"
mikal
(10/10/2005; 15:14:57 MDT - Msg ID: 136779)
Bond downgrades most since Great Depression
http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/ssistory.mpl/business/3387898Bond downgrades most since Great Depression - Bloomberg - October 10, 2005
Corporate bond comparisons made with understatements such as the admission "The credit cycle has probably already peaked."
TownCrier
(10/10/2005; 15:19:02 MDT - Msg ID: 136780)
Gold zings amid hot resources
http://www.moneyweb.co.za/specials/offshore_investing/500075.htm10 Oct 2005 -- Resources stocks -- excluding the energy sub-sector -- outperformed nervous global markets on Monday, as investors flocked towards the sector after recent-profit taking, on concerns of over high crude oil prices, and rising interest rates in the US.

These inflationary fears helped push gold to $478.50 an ounce on Monday, to the highest since January 1988.

David Holmes at RBC Capital Markets said investors appeared to be uncomfortable with currency and bond markets.

Holmes saw "safe-haven hedge" buying and, to some degree, a rally driven by inflation concerns.

The buying of gold and broader resources started early after the weekend, in Australia, as UBS and Macquarie Equities recommended the resources sector...

The sector remained in good demand on the back of continuing investor demand for quality...

^---(from url)---^

Choose gold. The brokers at USAGOLD-Centennial can help you determine a diversification strategy that's right for you.
1-800-869-5115

R.
USAGOLD Daily Market Report
(10/10/2005; 16:07:12 MDT - Msg ID: 136781)
Page Update!
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Daily Gold Market Report has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.

MONDAY Market Excerpts

October 10 (from DowJones, Reuters) -- The precious metals complex managed to finish higher Monday despite a stronger tone in the U.S. dollar and weakness in crude oil.

Activity was described as light, however. Not only was the U.S. observing Columbus Day, but there were holidays in Canada and Japan.

December gold added 30 cents to $478.

Gold hit a $482 contract high overnight but then backed off, dipping to $475.20 around mid-morning. It then bounced back to near-steady territory.

"There was just decent support at the bottom," said a trader, commenting that this was seen by some as a buying opportunity.

"A lot of people view what has happened in the last month or two as a technical breakout. So on dips, they're coming in and buying."

Prices have benefited from recent worries about inflation and geopolitical uncertainty due to gold's role as a classic safe-haven asset, trading sources said.

"The gold market is amazingly strong, even with the dollar rallying," said Leonard Kaplan, president of Prospector Asset Management in Evanston, Illinois. "The funds are massively long here -- record all-time highs -- and they buy more as it goes higher."

George Gero, senior vice president with Legg Mason Wood Walker, commented that there were expectations that profit-taking would set in as the energy market fell back. Thus, gold started slipping. But some buying appeared to be encouraged by nervousness about a decline in certain equities, including Refco and General Motors, said Gero.

Delphi prices fell over the weekend after the company filed for bankruptcy protection, putting pressure on former Delphi parent General Motors.

"Delphi and General Motors were major worry stories," said Gero.

"As General Motors goes, so goes the country, according to a lot of people."

Refco shares fell after the company said it discovered through an internal review it was owed about $430 million by an entity controlled by Chairman and Chief Executive Phillip Bennett, who has repaid the receivable, including accrued interest, in cash.

Refco said Bennett is taking a leave of absence.

Bullion hit an almost 18-year peak at $478.50 early Monday on jewelry demand and safe-haven buying. Many market players expect gold to soon test the $480 level before eventually marching toward $500.

---(see url for full news, 24-hr newswire, market quotes)---
TownCrier
(10/10/2005; 16:20:02 MDT - Msg ID: 136782)
Gold hits near-18-year high, eyes next peak
http://www.godubai.com/gulftoday/article.asp?AID=21&Section=BusinessLONDON: Gold rose to a new near 18-year high in Europe on Monday, within reach of the next peak at $480 an ounce, on fund buying fuelled by inflation worries and strong physical demand.

Some dealers said the market was becoming vulnerable to profit taking and could even track lower in the short term, but they saw gold extending further gains in the months to come.

..."I think the market is very healthy," said David Holmes, vice president of commodities at RBC Capital Markets. "With investors still waiting on the sidelines to get in, I just don't see the market falling away."

People were not very comfortable with currencies and bond markets and were putting money in safe-haven gold, he said, adding that inflation worries also helped the rally.

..."The appetite for metal commodities is enormous at the moment," said Stephen Briggs, economist with SG Corporate and Investment Banking.

He said gold's inverse relationship with the dollar had been broken in the last couple of weeks. When the dollar weakened, gold moved up, but the metal did not fell when the US currency strengthened, he added.

^---(from url)----^

After a firm "buy the dips" mentality takes hold among investors, in order to keep as many potential investment dollars off-balance and sidelined for as long as possible, the market may enter a period where price consolidations are done sideways over a brief period of time rather than giving you an attractive entry point as a goodly dip might actually do.

Understand the fundamentals of paper and metal, and act; don't let yourself be kept paralyzed in full view of a bull market. Reach out -- it remains yours for the taking.

R.
Demosthenes
(10/10/2005; 16:53:25 MDT - Msg ID: 136783)
Gold Farming
http://www.business2.com/b2/web/articles/0,17863,1106902,00.htmlApparently people have been working on techniques that cause small gold particles to accumulate in plants to allow easier "harvesting" of the gold.

An interesting little article, short on technical details of course. I'll have to reasearch that part myself. Best part is, it seems to also extract mercury from the land, eventually rendering the soil safe again.

This won't have a major effect on supply, of course, but it is always nice when the industrial and the ecological marry up.

mikal
(10/10/2005; 18:58:38 MDT - Msg ID: 136784)
Gold coin fetches 17M yen
http://mdn.mainichi-msn.co.jp/national/news/20051010p2a00m0na022000c.html Mainichi Daily News - National News - Rare gold coins sell at auction
Goldilox
(10/10/2005; 20:57:59 MDT - Msg ID: 136785)
MNF
So far this season, Monday Night Football has hosted the Mena Gang's own Frick and Frack, Geena Davis' "Commander-in-Chief", and tonight The CA Governator.

MNF should change it's name to "Monday Night Politics - with some football on the side".
Goldendome
(10/10/2005; 22:40:24 MDT - Msg ID: 136786)
Today Delphi--Tomorrow GM&Ford--Later SSI & Medicare
http://news.ft.com/cms/s/72f2db2c-39a5-11da-806e-00000e2511c8,dwp_uuid=179a1fac-a13d-11d9-95e5-00000e2511c8.htmlRemarks by Steve Miller, CEO of Delphi to the Financial Times, on the Delphi bankruptcy:

Snips from the interview:


So what went wrong? Three things:

One: The spread between OEM [original equipment manufacturing] labour costs and competitive supplier labour costs has widened sharply over the past decade, driven by globalisation and by rising health care costs.

Two: The sharp decline in GM market share has reduced GM North American production volumes by a million units per year, from 5.5 million to 4.5 million units, in the last three years. The impact on Delphi has been to reduce revenues by several billion dollars a year worth of parts. Given our high fixed costs and inflexible labour costs, the result has been devastating.

Three: The game plan for Delphi included �flow-backs� to GM of excess workers at Delphi freed up by improved productivity, The theory assumed that GM would have plentiful openings due to retirements of its ageing workforce. But GM's severe production declines have offset its own workforce attrition, and it has had no room to accept excess Delphi workers. Delphi has therefore had to pay 4,000 idled workers in its �jobs bank� full pay and benefits amounting to about $100 million per quarter.

The resulting financial pressures have forced Delphi to seek Chapter 11 protection while we reorganise. We had hoped to work things out with our unions and with GM, but despite good and constructive discussions, time ran out. Nonetheless, those discussions will continue. The unions are involved, because our labour contracts are simply unaffordable and must be changed. GM is involved, because it is contingently liable, through contractual arrangements dating back to the spin-off, to make up for any denied retirement benefits of the Delphi workforce in the event of our financial distress. The amount of liability is hard to quantify, but even GM admits it could exceed $10bn. ...

Beyond Delphi, things are going to get messy for the Big-3 in coping with all this. The current labour agreements expire in 2007, and it will be a historical collision point for all these social and economic forces that are at work. GM has already declared it can't wait til then to trim its $80bn of accrued retiree health care obligations. Clearly, they are headed down the same Chapter 11 path as Delphi, unless there is dramatic change in their staggering legacy labour burden.

Sundeck
(10/11/2005; 00:07:45 MDT - Msg ID: 136787)
Delphi, GM and Ford
@Goldendome re your #136786

Sounds pretty grim...

What is the general mood amongst thoughtful citizens in the USA at the moment? Is it possible to judge?

In Australia, a lot of credit is given to the opinions of taxi drivers...I suppose because they get a cross-section of opinion from their clients each and every day...

I wonder whether there is a general mood developing in the US? Any thoughts/comments out there??

(makcumka's comments in #136764 re construction materials duly noted...)

TIA

:-)
Goldilox
(10/11/2005; 00:10:23 MDT - Msg ID: 136788)
KILROY WAS HERE
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htmsnip:

Would Everyone Not Be Affected The Same?

A great question to ask [patting myself on the back!] but in a land that espouses the virtues of �free trade� and �free markets� � if we look a little bit just under the surface � we can readily see that some companies or, shall we say, industries � are created a little more equal than others. In a seminal piece penned by Professor Robert Bell � we learn that some companies, and more specifically the defense establishment and their pension plans � are insulated from the vagaries of the market place as outlined in Professor Bell's adroitly penned, The Invisible Hand (of the US Government) in Financial Markets:

"There is even a potentially unlimited source of money to do this pumping. Federal government contractors operate under a special law, CAS, in their defined benefits pension plans. This gives them stock portfolio insurance, something which small fry players would obviously like to get, but can't find anyone willing to issue. Should the pension funds of the federal government contractors lose money in their investments to the degree that they fall below minimum reserve requirements imposed by other federal laws, they can simply make up the difference by adding it on pro-rata to subsequent items sold to the federal government. The vast sums of federal tax money devoted to plugging the holes in the pension fund for the largest Pentagon contractor, Lockheed Martin, were discovered by Ken Pedeleose, an analyst at the Defense Contract Management Agency. He was concerned about staggering cost increases for the C-130J transport but a chart he made public showed the mind boggling per plane cost increases for a number of Lockheed Martin airplanes. The chart amounted to a Rosetta Stone for the military-industrial complex. It showed, essentially, how the military-industrial complex linked to the stock market through the Lockheed Martin pension fund, and by extension through all the others covered by the same law."

These and other revelations brought to our attention by Professor Bell go on to explain how certain players, namely Central Banks � �play� the treasury [bond] markets thus enabling them to effectively rig markets:

"Since the money comes from a handful of foreign central banks, the possible rigging of the Treasury market equals the possible rigging of the foreign exchange markets. These central banks have to buy dollars before they buy Treasuries. Even Alan Greenspan has acknowledged that the two go together, admitting that Asian central banks "may be supporting the dollar and U.S. Treasury prices somewhat."

Why?

The reason all of these things outlined above need to happen is as follows:

Fiat based monetary systems rely on inflation as their life blood.

Central Banks in a fiat based monetary system exist for the sole reason to create monetary inflation [legalized theft]

Central Banks put out a public persona or �masquerade� as inflation fighters to keep their minions believing in their phony paper [which they print at will] currency schemes

History has shown that all fiat money regimes known to mankind have always ended with Central Bankers resorting to unscrupulous means [including blaming anyone and anything for their own money printing, inflation causing predisposition] to defend their phony un-backed fiat currencies

For all technicians out there � I would like to simply comment that what is presently occurring in financial markets today � is nothing more than history repeating itself � and I did not need a chart to discern any of this. I only needed to read a history book!

-Goldilox

Rob Kirby analyzes the bankruptcies of US corporations and their ties to globalization. While the admin cries "free markets" and "spead democracy" for all the boob-tube junkies, they under-handedly dismantle true capitalism and free markets to maintain their unbridled power base.
Topaz
(10/11/2005; 02:16:39 MDT - Msg ID: 136789)
Ahh!
http://www.futuresource.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=GC&o=100/DX&a=D&z=610x300&d=LOW&b=LINE&st=Isn't it a Beautiful thing the Sept cross-over?
I could look at it (and DO) every day.

Au and Ag are ad-libing here and NOT following the script, in fact a suspended animation prevails which will make the next move all the more vigorous.

We can but watch as this gets sorted.
500odd OI in Oct Au shows promise as we track through the month and a (ball-park) total OI @368K will see little change Tue-Tue IF nothing too drastic happens today.
mikal
(10/11/2005; 05:19:19 MDT - Msg ID: 136790)
Gold drivers, int'l highways
http://business.iafrica.com/markets/gold/499985.htm Gold near 18-year high - Shoks Mzolo - 10/10/05 - iAfrica - Oct 11
Markets "will watch US CPI number" later in week. Thin trading expected to return to normal.

Markets will also note today's statement of FOMC minutes from their last meeting which saw another qtr. pt. increase in Fed funds rate.
Many Forex traders are saying US dollar climb on Fed rate expectations is exhausted, will reverse this week.
Boilermaker
(10/11/2005; 08:56:13 MDT - Msg ID: 136791)
International Energy Agency Release
snip;
The IEA said as much as 163-mil bbl of refined product output had been lost due to the storms. "The prolonged outage of a significant amount of US refining capacity came on top of an already tight situation in terms of
capacity," the IEA said........... The tighter product supply situation could well extend into 2006 as the
postponement of some Autumn refinery maintenance will inevitably lead to a heavier maintenance schedule in 2006.
The IEA also made large cuts to its forecasts for non-OPEC crude supply for 2005 and 2006. In the fourth quarter, supply is expected to be 900,000 b/d less than previously predicted at 50.7-mil bbl.

comment
POO rising after this report was released today. I expect the same situation exists in the US natural gas market.
Cometose
(10/11/2005; 09:44:33 MDT - Msg ID: 136792)
CRB
http://www.crbtrader.com/crbindex/images/crb-b7.gifInteresting to view this chart in light of 1971 ....being the year that Nixon closed the Gold window.........

It seems today that something eerily similar is taking place ......with regard to energy being scarce and
the dollar having no backing in fiscal restraint....
and also in light of the

"NEW" paradigm forming in relation to GOLD MOVING without respect to what the dollar is doing ......

What happens if the dollar tanks.....??? re the CRB

LOOKS LIKE PAPER IS NOT GOING TO BE KIND TO THE HOLDERS THEREOF.

Goldilox
(10/11/2005; 10:05:49 MDT - Msg ID: 136793)
DX long-term
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=dmaxInteresting double top in the DX forming around 90.

But as others have questioned, given the "independence" of GLD movement from it normal dollar tether, does it matter?

Good question.

If the dollar takes a downward turn, will gold react?

Wow, Icahn said the UAW will need to revalue its work packages to about a 1/3 of their current values. Cut wages and keep bennies, or vice-versa.

Does this portend the magnitude of upcoming dollar devaluation?
Clink!
(10/11/2005; 11:20:17 MDT - Msg ID: 136794)
Following Kilroy .....
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/reality/2005/0403.htmlI followed a link from the one posted earlier today by Goldy. It's not new, having been published back in April, and the content was discussed a little here at the time. It just struck me that the moment might have arrived for some sea changes because we are now into October. Does this have any b earing on Topaz' crossover chart ?

Snip :-

Plunge Protection's New Cash

In late October 2004, the U.S. public was looking the other way when the tax cut was passed. Most people were obsessing over who would win the presidential election. Few were paying much attention to what the Republicans in Congress were doing, which was giving billions in tax cuts to U.S. corporations which had profits parked in tax havens around the world, such as in Ireland or Singapore. Bush signed the law enabling this tax giveaway on 22 October 2004. The tax changes were noted by a few at the time, even before the law changed. But the general level of financial journalism is so bad that they got no real echo in the press. Most people speculating against the dollar had no idea they were about to get stung. Obviously a few knew what the implications of the tax law were. They made out, more or less literally, like bandits. But one cannot legitimately claim insider trading since the tax law changes were publicly available knowledge, and even made it to the internet on various accountant websites in October. But they don't seem to have gone much beyond these specialists. On 15 January 2005, I had a long talk in Paris with a top European stock market guru. Well connected and with a devoted following which he obviously did not want to burn, he had in all sincerity advocated buying gold to a gathering of thousands of his devotees a couple of months earlier, in November, after the passage of the U.S. tax law.

Most speculators were caught unaware on this source of currency pumping money, so it is unreasonable to assume that there will not be other surprises, which will be announced in due course.

The law Bush signed in late October 2004 goes by the obscenely false name, the American Jobs Creation Act. If there is one thing it will not do is to create jobs. It will instead create takeovers, which nearly always produce losses in jobs�in the name of synergy. Takeovers are on the limited menu of activities companies are permitted to do with the money they can "repatriate" under this law. Not that the limited menu makes much difference, since the money brought in does not have to be fenced off in any way. So if $10 billion were spent by a company on takeovers, that frees up another $10 billion to do whatever was prohibited under the law, such as paying dividends, buying back stock, or filling the pockets of executives with extra bonuses. Normally such profits earned in foreign subsidiaries of U.S. companies would be subject to a tax rate of 35% if they were brought home, which is why the money had stayed parked in the tax havens. But the law gives companies a one-year window for the "repatriation" of this cash at a tax rate of only 5.25%. Nobody knows how much will be brought in. When the law was passed in October, the general expectation reportedly was that the figure would be about $135 billion.[15] But one player has estimated it at $319 billion. "This has some investment bankers salivating," wrote David Wells in the Financial Times.[16] But how much would be converted into dollars from other currencies? According to two different investment banks, the figure is somewhere around $100 billion.[17] That would be the minimum available from this source to pump the dollar for one year. Recall that the Exchange Stabilization Fund has less than half that for eternity.

C! The one-year window closes this month.
TownCrier
(10/11/2005; 12:11:11 MDT - Msg ID: 136795)
Gold approaching psychologically significant levels
http://www.usagold.com/gold-price.htmlThe bottom charts show the month and day overview of the price of gold in euro. At the time of this writing the price had recently reached to EUR 398, just a scant 2 euro shy of the unprecedented EUR 400 mark.

Looking in turn at the 20-year US dollar chart, we are very close to eclipsing the December 1987 peak, putting gold into the significant league of prices not seen since the free running trial period of 1979-1980 when $850/oz was reached.

The two primary schools of thought are that we may bump along sideways under these psychologically significant levels for a testing/consolidationary period of time, or else simply that investors will more rapidly pressure prices up to and through those levels as they increase their gold positions in anticipation of the potential breakthrough after-effects of breaching those significant levels. EUR 400 gold and U.S. $500 gold will surely garner the attention of additional investors. Even Old Rip Van Winkle will awaken from his snooze to buy some ounces.

Earlier acquisitions make for less stress (in having the security of tangibles instead of "iffy" paper) and for better exposure to potential rewards.

R.
Topaz
(10/11/2005; 13:02:23 MDT - Msg ID: 136796)
Clink!
http://www.futuresource.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=GC&o=100/DX&a=M&z=610x300&d=medium&b=LINE&st=You make a VERY good point here Sir C!

A close examination of the LT alt-Gold comparison Chart reveals that in fact Gold has traded "detatched" from the Currencies (all of them!) since Jan '05.
Admittedly, the det first became apparent (mildly) in Delivery March ...stronger in Del June, manifestly so in Del Aug and latterly, non-Del Sept.

I recall at the time (Nov-Dec '04) being strongly positive on the Dollar, citing the repat legislation as a driving force ...and was unaware of the Sunset Clause.
Will it affect DX? ...Not nearly as much @ 90 as it did at 80 imo.
The real DX driver NOW is deteriorating Bond Yield methinks.
TownCrier
(10/11/2005; 13:40:07 MDT - Msg ID: 136797)
The intrigues of governments, miners, and gold
http://www.mineweb.net/columns/emerging_russia/500503.htmHEADLINE: Who pays what to whom for Russia's largest gold deposit?

(excerpts)--- Russia's largest unmined gold deposit, and the second largest unmined deposit in the world, Sukhoi Log is located in remote forests northeast of Lake Baikal, in Irkutsk region. The nearest habitation is the old miners' settlement of Bodaibo, a 30-minute helicopter ride away. Equally far away are electricity, roads, and fuel.

Containing at least 33 million troy ounces of gold, distributed awkwardly underground, there is little that is not already well-known to international goldminers about the deposit. This is because it was the principal asset of the now defunct Sukhoi Log Mining Company (SLMC), which in turn was a 50/50 venture of the Australian junior, Star Mining, also defunct, and the local alluvial mining association, Lenzoloto ("Lena [River] Gold").

...That he [Potanin] and Prokhorov (gold is more Prokhorov's line of business in their partnership) have not succeeded with Sukhoi Log, as Trutnev and the Irkutsk government wished for them, suggests that the real obstacle is the reluctance of Kremlin officials to agree on the price and conditions of the deal, and the future structure of Norilsk Nickel and Polyus.

...Litvinenko's influence with Putin has been ebbing, and he has nothing to gain from making public his disagreements with Trutnev. He and Trutnev are both silent on the question of Sukhoi Log. The parliamentary Committee on Natural Resources declined to respond to the same questions for want of anything to add.

Valery Braiko, a veteran goldminer himself and head of the Russian Union of Goldminers, concedes the obvious: "The delay was expected. We are already not waiting with impatience, and if the question will wait for review until the next government [2009], then the delay could be even further. It is really difficult to identify the background for all of this, so I prefer not to form any hypotheses."

Braiko is being understandably cautious. For the time being, there is no telling what further mining assets will be restructured for the benefit of state officials in the course of the Putin succession.

^----(from url)----^

Brief excerpts really do not do justice to the long tale of intrigue and hardships involved in the potential mine development and extraction of an underground gold deposit as exemplified in this article.

Would-be corporate investors know that hassles and disappointments abound in the speculative field of mining, and that's why every true diversification strategy which includes gold always begins with free-and-clear above-ground ownership of the metal itself.

Call USAGOLD-Centennial today to discuss a diversification strategy that's right for you.
1-800-869-5115

R.
Topaz
(10/11/2005; 13:59:25 MDT - Msg ID: 136798)
Speaking of Intrigues TC.
http://www.crbtrader.com/data/default.asp?page=quote&sym=GCJ5&mode=dIn this relatively "flat" current Gold market, the daily action and arm-wrestle ...now a three-way tussle between Paper Shorts, Specs and Bullion offtake, is truly a grand spectacle.
Each day they drive the price lower hoping to pick up a Spec downdraft and are answered by Longs taking a buying opp ...all the while the Bullion crowd are skooping up metal to cobble into trinkets, Coins and whatnot.

The OI @ Comex reflects whats happening here and as resolution remains elusive, the position slowly builds.
A 400K OI on the Dec Contract alone is not beyond probable here and the longer this persists, the more explosive will be the next move.
USAGOLD Daily Market Report
(10/11/2005; 15:00:27 MDT - Msg ID: 136799)
Page Update!
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Daily Gold Market Report has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.

TUESDAY Market Excerpts

October 11 (from DowJones/MarketWatch/Reuters) -- Fund buying enabled gold to finish higher in New York as background factors underpinning gold include strong investment interest, jewelry demand and recent safe-haven buying.

December gold settled up $1.80 to $479.80.

Peter Grandich, publisher of the Grandich Letter, listed several factors underpinning the yellow metal. "Gold is still seeing some of the best investment interest and jewelry interest in many, many years," he said.

This is occurring at a time when market participants are emboldened because gold has shown an ability to rise in the face of U.S. dollar strength, Grandich said, although offering his view is that the inverse relationship tends to be overplayed. "There is that built-in perception that somehow gold doesn't go up when the dollar goes up," he said. "So the fact that it is doing that is encouraging people even more."

Bullish investors extended a rally in the yellow metal amid worries about inflation and U.S. economic growth and despite a strong dollar, dealers said... [with] geopolitical events [making] the metal more attractive to investors, due to its role as a classic safe-haven asset.

Dips in price have been seen mainly as a buying opportunity for funds to add to their huge long positions in gold, rather than as a signal for traders to sell, traders said.

In the past, a firmer greenback pressured dollar-denominated gold as it became pricier for traders holding foreign currencies. But gold recently has been appreciating in many currencies, including the dollar.

"It doesn't matter what the energies or the dollar does, it just continues to go up -- it's a bull market," said one New Jersey-based precious metals dealer.

Grandich added that some global market participants are also buying gold as an alternative investment to equities lately, particularly outside of North America.

"The typical American is still not buying gold as an investment," he said. He also cited some "safe-haven" buying due to some geopolitical uncertainties and some of the natural disasters that have occurred around the globe lately, with possible ramifications for both economics and politics.

"The entire metals complex is in buy mode, and with that sector in such a strong upward momentum it is hard to see a correction occurring just yet," said John Person, president of National Futures Advisory Service. "The decline in the euro and the loss in confidence in the change in leadership [in Germany, where Angela Merkel will head a coalition government] is also prompting foreign buying," he said. "Gold can act as a substitute currency, therefore that is adding to fresh longs in the market," he explained.

All of these factors have "combined for gold to make a slow but steady walk up the ladder toward $500," Grandich said.

"We've had several days now when gold has been higher, then lower and then higher again. That's kind of like a self-correcting mechanism that is often seen in bullish uptrends. That's been happening in gold as well."

The outlook "remains extremely positive for the entire metals complex," said Dale Doelling, chief market technician at Trends In Commodities. "These markets are really going to get interesting as the various levels of resistance are overcome," he said.

----(see url for full news, 24-hr newswire, market quotes)---
TownCrier
(10/11/2005; 15:13:41 MDT - Msg ID: 136800)
Fed Minutes Show Increased Inflation Worries
http://www.theindychannel.com/money/5085485/detail.htmlOctober 11, 2005 WASHINGTON -- Concerns about public perceptions kept the Federal Reserve from holding the line on interest rates at its September meeting.

According to minutes of that gathering, policy-makers pushed the rate up because a pause might have misled people into thinking the Fed was too worried about the economic impact of Hurricane Katrina.

...the Fed expressed concerns that not raising rates at the September meeting would send the wrong signal about the Fed's view of the underlying soundness of the economy.

The minutes show there were increased worries among the Fed governors about inflation due to a spike in the price of energy products

^---(from url)---^

The overproduced dollar depreciates year after year, and the price of tangibles become dearer. It's the law of the jungle.

R.
TownCrier
(10/11/2005; 15:24:16 MDT - Msg ID: 136801)
Bank of England's King warns of possible end to period of low inflation...
http://businessplus.hemscott.net/hstoday/AFXNewStory.dll/text?SerialNumber=2429&Indate=11/10/2005&EPIC=LONDON (AFX) - Bank of England governor Mervyn King warned today that the period of low inflation and constant growth in the UK over the past 10 years may be at an end.

The rate setting Monetary Policy Committee's strategy of lowering borrowing costs to stimulate household spending in order to compensate for weaknesses elsewhere in the economy, carried the risk of an eventual drop in consumer spending, he said.

"That risk has, at least in part, crystallised. Some of the influences that have in the past provided a boost to consumer spending may be going into reverse," he said.

In an environment where oil prices have been surging briskly, the rebalancing of the economy away from consumer spending to business investment and net exports is underway, King said.

"The immediate question for the MPC is how to respond to the rebalancing of the economy and the rise in oil prices," he added.

The central bank cut its benchmark repo rate by a quarter point to 4.50 pct in August but has since kept it unchanged. A slew of weak economic data, however, has prompted some observers to speculate on the possibility of another reduction in November.

"Most important of all is the need to keep an open mind on the future path of interest rates," said King.

...time lags between changes in interest rates and their impact on spending and inflation [make] it hard for monetary policy to offset large shocks to the overall economy in the short term...

Expectations of the central bank's ability to stabilise the economy "must be realistic," King added.

^---(from url)---^

Bottom line: don't expect miracles from your central bank. Choose the proven path --walk 'The Gold Trail', and choose gold.

R.
melda laure
(10/11/2005; 16:53:00 MDT - Msg ID: 136802)
Blame the weather, blame the tailpipe, dont blame the bankers?
Global warming causes inflation. Hic!... Global warming causes earthquakes in Pakistan.... Hic@! God tried to punish Musharraf for siding with the USA but god's aim is bad and the bugger is still walking around. And adjusting the price of beer will sobrietize a room full of hobbits.

Pass the drammamine! Tap another cask! Please tell the dartboard to stop moving, I'm trying to pick a - hic! - a good stock to short and I keep hitting the golden wallpaper instead...'s too much weedsmoke in here...

clink! THUDD!!
mas
(10/11/2005; 18:07:20 MDT - Msg ID: 136803)
Some observations from the Privateer.
In line with what is being discussed here, material prices and shortages.

The Blocked US Transport Corridor:
Scarcity can always be seen. It is seen as higher prices being paid. This is now the situation inside the US economy. Up and down the US transport corridor, stretching from the hurricane affected areas all the way to Chicago and Maine in the north and east and reaching westward across the great plains, the prices of supplies are climbing. Across the US, the nationwide manufacturing prices paid for components has soared to 78 in September from an already high 62.5 back in August. That is a huge surge. We are dealing with "components" - which businesses have to pay before they stand with a finished product. Without these components, they stand with an unfinished product and therefore have nothing to sell. From the best available data, these higher component prices will hit around the end of October and hit HARD starting about mid-November. That's when the inventories dry up and REAL scarcity hits.

and -


Come The Cold Of Winter:
Since early summer in the US, Americans have seen their gasoline prices double. And now, here comes natural gas. Natural gas prices for November have climbed another $US 0.096 to stand at $US 14.20 per thousand cubic feet. Five years ago in 2000, average natural gas prices for the year were $US 4.70. The current price in 2005 is more than SEVEN TIMES the average price in the 1990s, which was $US 2 per thousand cubic feet. The Gulf (of Mexico) area produced 16 percent of US natural gas. At present, a full 80 percent of the Gulf's production capacity is still not back on line. With the Gulf oil refineries down, a full 15 percent of US refining capacity is not there. It is not expected to be back on line for several more weeks. Where this will hit very hard is in the plastics and chemicals area, where natural gas is used as the feedstock for final products. These producers will end up in a head-to-head contest for gas supplies with American households wanting to keep their houses heated through the coming US winter. Again, in dealing with REAL scarcity, something has to give economically. There is not enough to supply all that the buyers want. That will soon be seen in still higher prices. If the northern US households "win" this contest for supplies, they will at least stay warm this winter. But these same households will find that the plastics which they took for granted are in extremely short supply and often not to be found at all. The CORE problem the United States now faces is that after several decades of "just in time" supply management, there is very little "slack" in the long US production chains. It is not like the "old days" when most producers had basic stock and other supplies in house to keep them going for weeks. That entailed carrying a cost. "Just in time" allowed them to cut the cost of holding basic stock and other supplies drastically, but it left the entire production system at the mercy of disruptions.
With most businesses today standing with, at most, 2 to 5 days of in-house supplies for their
manufacturing of product lines, the disruption of cancellation of as little as 10-20 percent of their
upstream supplies would see them grind to a halt in a week. Once the wholesalers and warehouse
operations are nearly emptied out, the "just in time" supply chains simply snap. It is THIS situation
which the US Eastern Seaboard is now marching towards and that fact is NOT being reported by the US media. All businesses across the US are now fully aware of it, however, and they are getting scared.
Chris Powell
(10/11/2005; 19:04:19 MDT - Msg ID: 136804)
Forbes quotes GATA chairman at length on gold price suppression scheme
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/3383What's next? Oprah?

Latest GATA dispatch.



To subscribe to GATA's dispatches, send an e-mail to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com
contrarian
(10/11/2005; 19:30:44 MDT - Msg ID: 136805)
stocks
apple stock was down a drastic 10 percent at end of day today...even after coming very close to earnings targets...this could bode poorly for tommorrow's stock market.
Bulldog
(10/11/2005; 21:37:56 MDT - Msg ID: 136806)
Plunge in financial markets
Given the risks in the financial markets, essentially bankrupt car makers, airlines, etc., Rick Ackerman has written that a dramatic plunge into depression would result in essentially frozen assets, bank holidays. One would need their cash for "survival" and would not be buyers of gold. He does acknowledge that gold will always be a good store of value, but gold would not go into any third wave of fantastic speculation or reach "free gold" status. My perspective would be that all fiat would be worthless because it would be impossible to untangle the webs that have been woven in the financial markets. Gold and silver would be set by the market, a truly free market where actually physical gets exchanged for the bargain in some fashion. Comments???????????????
OvS
(10/11/2005; 21:51:00 MDT - Msg ID: 136807)
dealers vs. funds
The following idea crossed my mind:
What if the major dealers in gold
and silver are controlled by the
same clan as the major funds (who
so far at least, where "taken to the
cleaners by the dealers")?

Thereby cleaning up the minor players
in this see-saw.

Would change the perspective, no?

It wouldn't influence this our round-
table since we are sticking to it,
come hell or high water?

This idea might be more logical than
cobra2's message a while back, but convoluted
just the same...oh, well, at least
I'm not using words like "idiotic".
PS Pritco, I'm sorry if my English
offends you, but be happy you don't hear
me talk; because I talk the way I
write. There is always a silver lining.OvS
slingshot
(10/11/2005; 22:21:56 MDT - Msg ID: 136808)
Melda Laure Msg# 136802
Drink fast my friend before the taxes levied make it too painfull to raise a round of cheer! I have never meet a Hobbit, but from what I have read of them they are the most hospitable creatures ever to grace the earth/middle earth.
Slingshot---------
contrarian
(10/11/2005; 22:24:52 MDT - Msg ID: 136809)
article
I spoke to someone knowledgeable today about that article. It's nonsense. That's presuming a complete worldwide collapse of paper. Ok, so the gold market in US collapses, which is mostly paper anyways. But that still leaves the markets in Europe and Asia, which are focused on the physical.

Also, he states the ridiculous premise that if there's a currency collapse, folks are going to head into T bills
"A global financial panic would undoubtedly send hoards of cash scurrying into T-bonds and T-bills"
This is ridiculous! If the US currency collapses, then it's a collapse of credibility, and everything paper collapses along with it, including T-bonds and T-bills.

Also, it presumes that gold will be a market every average citizen will aspire to under these conditions. If they're not doing it now, they're not likely to do it then. It's the rich people who know what they're doing who'll drive the price up, as the market is very limited. It'll be a market for those with enough foresight to think ahead.

This is just the briefest of refutations, I'm sure others can weigh in, but my gut feeling tells me this article is off its rocker.
Smeagol
(10/11/2005; 22:45:59 MDT - Msg ID: 136810)
Ssshhhh....
http://www.kitco.com/lease.chart.silv.html
...ahhh, look at it precious, see, the White Face is waxing... along with the price... and lease rates... for the Metal of the Moon. Beautiful, eh?

S.
slingshot
(10/11/2005; 22:55:53 MDT - Msg ID: 136811)
Bulldog
My 2 cents.

This has to be split into two categories.
Those who have prepared and those who have not.

The rule of thumb (as I read ) is to have 10 to 15% in gold in your porfolio. Yet you have to have cash. How much cash? The answer to that is, How much can you lose on a Bank Holiday? You are going to need cash as it would be the only thing people understand. How much is the merchant going to charge for his ware when he does not know what to price his wares at? Fair market value is it? The Question is who tells him what a reasonable price is? Wall Street? What the maket will Bare! What price are they asking for those Escalades and H2 and even Ford 250's? Right down to everyday items. Sir Bulldog if you want to know what really mattered in the times of financial trouble, I can tell you two that were at the top of the list. Toilet paper/striker and tomato sauce. Tomato sauce made everything taste great!
Slingshot----------<>
slingshot
(10/11/2005; 23:08:06 MDT - Msg ID: 136812)
Bilbo's home
http://www.ultimatesecurehome.com/secure_home.htmCheck it out.
slingshot
(10/11/2005; 23:48:39 MDT - Msg ID: 136813)
A request for a contest.
In light of all the catastrophic problems around the world and the knowledge of the banking institutions power. I submit as a contest question. Who is really in control?

Can the banks weild their power of the printing press and subdue Mother Nature or will Mother Nature unlease her power never seen before and overpower the banks?
Slingshot------------<>
Goldendome
(10/12/2005; 00:30:10 MDT - Msg ID: 136814)
Ackerman the Crackerman
Bulldog: Comment on your report of the Ackerman article (that I have not read. There was no link to the article.)

I can tell by your tone that you don't agree with Ack.

Ackerman: If the U.S. economy and financial system is disintigrating to the degree evidently described...Then who the heck will want to be holding dollar assets? And when they all head to the door at once, what's going to happen to the value of the dollar? What would be the prices of those imports and all other products then? Again, who the heck will want to be holding dollars?? Gold and Silver would rocket up IMO, if holders round the world desired to exit the dollar, as I believe that they would, if things get as bad as the article would indicate.

I recognize that people need cash money, but to say that you won't be able to get your hands on greenbacks is just plain scare tactics. Some banks always go broke- but others don't, and the Feds will, as in the depression years of 33 and 34, make sure that they get green backs into the hands of the public. Lots of greenbacks.

People are Federally insured in the banks - eventually. Assuming that they don't hold what? over 100,000 in a single institution?

The money will eventually be made available in failed banks, as has been the case since the Great Depression.

The money you get back may not be worth a dam, but you will get it.. Even if they have to run the presses night and day in the basement of the White House!

No- friends. Deflation is the strawman- always trotted out to mask the real problem, that of steady, insipient inflation!

When we look at the problems of debt and obligations at the private and public (read Federal) level, the way out of the box will not be deflation, but inflation. The question the gold market is now struggling with, is how bad,how fast? How quickly does the value of the dollar collapse.


It would be good to hold dollar assets in more than one bank or Credit Union and pay some attention to bad debt levels as % of assets, to be assured you will be able to write a check to pay your own mortgage, etc. should one of your banks run into problems that delay access to some of your funds.

But keep a bundle of paper money laying around? No thanks. I'll keep the sackfull of Gold; the chests full of silver, and loads of pre-"64 silver dimes, quarters, and halves, just because they are still "Constitutionally" based U.S. currency.

Night All!
PRITCHO
(10/12/2005; 03:01:15 MDT - Msg ID: 136815)
@OVS - - - Re Earlier Message
Rest assured your English has NEVER offended me - -and I've never, ever said or hinted that it did. Don't know where you pulled that thought from?
Topaz
(10/12/2005; 03:11:05 MDT - Msg ID: 136816)
Ackerman. ...slingy.
Taking a stab at how this thing ends is purely a speculation ...Mr Ackermans guess is as good as any Bulldog.
Rest assured though, sitting smugly with pockets bulging Gold I don't believe will win you too many popularity contests.
Why even now, following Golds recent 20% uptick in my local currency, you can literally taste the resentment in the hollow comments of friends and associates. This attitude is bound to deteriorate as things worsen.

We all should "technically" prepare for the "Bad-Times" and ostensibly "re-join" the soon-to-be-suffering Masses imo.
Me? no...I got no Gold, thought $475 was the top and got out ...who'd have thought it'd go to $50K ...or $130 ;-)

Slingshot: - Who's in Control? ...You are mate, unless you wimp out and relinquish control to somebody or thing you (or I) can't even begin to start to get our heads around ...unnerstand-et-vous?


Topaz
(10/12/2005; 03:40:06 MDT - Msg ID: 136817)
All Hands to the Pumps this AM.
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=sThey are e-throwing e-everything at DX to keep it under 90 this morning.
Did that Butterfly flap it's wings in the Amazon?
Was that a Fat Lady I heard? ...tra-la!
Topaz
(10/12/2005; 04:43:03 MDT - Msg ID: 136818)
Deflation of the Golden kind.
http://jessel.100megsfree3.com/AssetsDeflatedGold.pngWith such nom de plumes as JesseL, and Arthur Cutten these guys demand respect ...and get it! (from mois anyway)
TownCrier
(10/12/2005; 05:04:24 MDT - Msg ID: 136819)
Global markets could swiftly punish cenbanks
http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh70398_2005-10-12_02-38-43_n11508146_newsmlWOOSTER, Ohio, Oct 11 (Reuters) - Increasingly globalized financial markets may be less forgiving when they think central banks have erred than the domestic-based markets of the past, Federal Reserve Board Governor Donald Kohn said on Tuesday.

"...integrated economies and financial markets can [...] exert powerful feedback, which may be less forgiving of any perceived policy error," he said.

Kohn used as an example a hypothetical situation in which financial markets come to doubt the Fed's dedication to price stability, saying this would hurt investors' appetite for dollar assets and spark an inflation-boosting decline in the value of the dollar.

During audience questions, the Fed official said continued rigidities in China's currency regime could impede the emerging powerhouse's ability to respond to economic shifts.

"In a rapidly changing global environment in which shocks and changes can come from anywhere, having this price fixed has got to be a form of rigidity in the system and one I worry about," he said.

Kohn also said he would expect countries that have kept their currencies in check to eventually come to the view that greater foreign exchange flexibility would improve the functioning of their economies.

^---(from url)---^

By contrast, never heard of global markets punishing Mother Nature for any such lax policy of producing "too much" gold.

R.
TownCrier
(10/12/2005; 05:22:22 MDT - Msg ID: 136820)
Europe gold at highest since early 1988 as funds buy
http://keyinvest.ibb.ubs.com/ki/ch/en/newsbody.ki?newsid=3989516LONDON, Oct 12 (Reuters) - Gold jumped to its highest since early 1988 in Europe on Wednesday...

Market players said gold would now attempt to touch the next big psychological level of $500 an ounce as inflation worries continued and consumer demand was good.

Traders said gold had been extending gains despite a strong dollar and has risen to multi-year highs in several currencies, which analysts see as a sign of an entrenched bull market.

Spot gold rose as high as $480.25 a troy ounce but retreated to $478.50/479.30 by 0934 GMT.

The metal has risen about 16 percent from a year ago.

Gold stood firm in other currencies, scaling a new record high in euro terms at 401.41 euros an ounce and hit 275.82 British pounds per ounce, the highest in about 12 years.

"Gold is still capable of jumping higher, particularly with inflation concerns still high," one trader said, adding that the market would be closely watching the release of the latest U.S. economic data on Thursday and Friday.

^---(from url)----^

And so there it is already. Knocked a hole through EUR 400 per ounce, which may raise a few eyebrows of interest. Now we have US $500 per ounce as the next, more significant, psychological benchmark on the climb higher.

Gold can certainly exercise volatility with price movements up or down, but the surest way for it to keep you sidelined and out is as you wait patiently for a good retracement that never comes.

R.
TownCrier
(10/12/2005; 05:32:36 MDT - Msg ID: 136821)
Rise in price of gold bad news for dollar
http://www.fortwayne.com/mld/journalgazette/business/12881530.htmOct. 12, 2005, Los Angeles Times -- The last time an ounce of gold cost $470, Alan Greenspan was in his first year as chairman of the Federal Reserve.

Seventeen years later, Greenspan is on the verge of retiring -- and the metal finally is back to its late-1980s price level after a long bear market.

The gold/Greenspan convergence is raising suspicions on Wall Street. Some believe the metal's revival must be saying something about the economy the Fed chief is leaving to his as-yet unnamed successor.

The purchase of gold often is equated with a rising level of fear among investors. If people are trading their cash for an ancient commodity, it suggests some erosion of faith in the financial system.

Is it inflation that's worrying investors? Or deflation? Or the prospect of a global economic crash that would lead to the ruin of national currencies?

Or perhaps gold is just a beneficiary of its own recent success: The higher it goes, the more likely it is to attract hedge funds and other short-attention-span traders who are quick to jump aboard any rallying market and don't care much what the trigger was.

In any case, more investors are taking note because the metal's latest surge has lifted it $35 (as of the end of September) since late August. It's a new phase of a gold bull market that began in 2002 after 14 years of mostly declining prices.

There was a solid explanation for gold's 2002-04 rally: The dollar was sinking in that period against other major currencies. Because gold and the dollar are rivals as forms of money, it stands to reason that what's bad for one is good for the other.

...This year, the dollar has rebounded modestly against many currencies. But even as the dollar continued to strengthen in September, gold suddenly caught fire again.

Paul Kasriel, an economist at Northern Trust in Chicago, poses the question that is probably on the minds of many small-business owners and corporate executives: "How long can businesses absorb these higher energy prices before some of them go out of business or aggressively pass through some of the costs?"

...if U.S. consumer price inflation is 4 percent next year instead of the 2 percent to 3 percent that many experts foresee, it could be a shock to financial markets. That could benefit gold by default.

Some investors also might turn to the metal if they become worried about serious deflation rather than inflation.

Deflation, or a general decline in the prices of goods, services and financial assets, is what Japan lived through in the 1990s. If investors started to fear that that was possible on a global scale � say, because of a deep worldwide recession � gold's historic role as a store of value could mean that it would attract money that would probably be fleeing stocks and many bonds in that sort of environment.

^---(see URL for full article)---^

Bottom line: In the transition to a free-er (physical pricing) gold market, gold is good for whatever economic condition ails you. Tangible metal ownership makes for more secure savings than paper instruments which are all subject to default and inflationary depreciation.

R.
TownCrier
(10/12/2005; 05:35:09 MDT - Msg ID: 136822)
Gold hovers near 18-year high
http://www.busrep.co.za/index.php?fArticleId=2943243&fSectionId=630&fSetId=662October 12, 2005 Johannesburg -- The spot price of gold has moved above $480 a troy ounce for the first time in almost 18 years on fund buying of the metal.

"Gold has broken through key resistance at $478 this morning on fund enthusiasm. Continued fund buying is likely to take gold through $481 soon," London-based Barclays Capital analyst Yingxi Yu said.

^---(from url)---^
Boilermaker
(10/12/2005; 06:45:08 MDT - Msg ID: 136823)
Bring in the Clowns?
In the past whenever we had periods of strength in POG there would be announcements of upcoming CB sales or other gold negative news planted precisely when the paper market was ripe for a bear attack. This gold rally has so far (as I have observed) been devoid of the routine gold clown act.

We now appear to have "silence is golden". This is just one more sign that gold is in a new suit.

Of course, by my bringing this up, we will probably see an announcement this week that some CB wants to dump mega tonnes of this cumbersome and unproductive pile of outmoded material.
mas
(10/12/2005; 07:14:34 MDT - Msg ID: 136824)
Greenspan
Speech, what a joke. I'll really raise the flag tomorrow. Firing is good!
What goes around comes around. Good luck retiree G'span.
OvS
(10/12/2005; 07:57:49 MDT - Msg ID: 136825)
Pritcho
Sorry for misinterpreting you.
My British slang is a little
weak lately. I just learned
that ponce means: an effeminate
man or pimp. OK. That makes me
feel much better....
I like your "bee in a bonnet".
And when I hear a declared
Austrian and declared member
of a diplomatic family use
Dzungarian street urchin talk
and is calling the President &

advisors "imbecilic or idiotic"
and gets away calling me likewise
without being corrected, I'll
do it with "a wasp in my bonnet".
You and cb2 castigate me because
I'm not clear where I'm comming
from.
If you go into the archives you'll
find that I fill-in when the board
slows down to a crawl and many a
times I wake it up and/or make it
think by being controvesial. That
goes back to 1998(devil's advocate).
Seven years on USAgold ought to
give a hint where I'm comming from.
Of course I understand CB2's frus-
tration: His buddies invested in
the Austrian stockmarket which to
date appreciated 250%.
I was in Treasuries and the prema-
ture switch to the metals cost me
not only nice appreciation of the
capital but nice interest, and
interest on interest.
But where we wrong? Nope. It only
proves that a cornered rat should
never be underestimated. Some of us
are already and others will soon be
vindicated... ce la vie ... OvS


MK
(10/12/2005; 08:39:14 MDT - Msg ID: 136826)
All. . .
This could be an imposed downdraft in anticipation of some very bad numbers next two days -- let's just call it space building (not knowing for sure what the intentions of the market planners might be). The word "smoothing" comes to mind.

Trade balance and Treasury budget tomorrow

CPI, retail sales, business inventories Friday

Then Tuesday, PPI.

Reports that building costs are skyrocketing coming in from all directions. . . Inflation on everyone's mind and we haven't even hit the winter heating season yet. Petrodollars once again emblazoned in the financial collective conscious. AG/AM win a Porsche raffle at a charity affair last week -- something to "smooth" the transition? We shall see. Bernanke readying his first request as incipient Fed chairman: a fleet of helicopters.

All in. . .

this drop, like others in recent weeks, might be bought.
ge
(10/12/2005; 10:01:44 MDT - Msg ID: 136827)
Jim Sinclair : "Gold to Breach $529 on this Move"
http://www.jsmineset.com/"...Who has made more financial progress, the hot shot trader or the gold and good gold share committed investor? Forget the hot shot traders who claim continuous infallibility. The biggest winners are the stand and hold crowd..."
R Powell
(10/12/2005; 11:42:21 MDT - Msg ID: 136828)
Attention: Adam Hamilton...
Hamilton, for those who don't know, has written investment articles, many concerning precious metals, for years. He has been a fairly constant gold bull for years.

Most of his thoughts are connected to technical trading charts, used for trading timing. However, I believe he also advocates some physical ownership, separate from "speculative" monies. I wonder, believing that he reads the goldbug forums, if a relationship (direct correlation) might be charted between the POG and the CBOE volatility index?

As for today's metals' prices (?), just one of those days, I guess, even copper took a pretty good hit. Copper might be a good example of a real demand driven market, an example of what gold/silver may see...?
rich
Federal_Reserves
(10/12/2005; 12:23:38 MDT - Msg ID: 136829)
SNOW JOB must be worried
Economists forecast that the U.S. trade deficit widened to $59.5 bln, up from -$57.9 bln in July. That deficit would match June's as the second-widest ever, after February's record $60.4 billion...


>>>
SNOW JOB headed to China. He will be out jawbowing the communists to give him another 1 penny adjustment on the
yuan/dollar exchange rate. Like Greasenap says - that's flexibility. LOL! It's an outrage that the oligarchy is using slave labor in CHINA to hold down US workers. Even worse that our congress sits on their hind legs and barks favorably about it all.

CHENGDU, Oct. 12 (Xinhuanet) -- US Treasury Secretary John Snow arrived in Chengdu, capital city of southwest China's Sichuan Province, on the evening of October 12.

He is scheduled to attend the meeting of the G-20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors, which will convene in Beijing from October 15 to 16.

Snow and his Chinese counterpart Jin Renqing will co-chair the 17th meeting of the Sino-US Joint Economic Commission on the afternoon of October 16.

During his three-day stop in Chengdu, Snow will visit a local pilot institute and a rural credit cooperative.

Snow kicked off his China visit in Shanghai on Oct. 11 and will leave for Beijing on Oct. 14. Enditem


Topaz
(10/12/2005; 13:07:24 MDT - Msg ID: 136830)
Todays action.
http://www.freebuck.com/today.shtmlWe appear to have a fairly tight correlation here with Comex daily deliveries and PoG's ability to bounce back after a whack.
Today saw 40 get done, yesterday was 136 (if memory serves) ...I recall last weeks action (and it's only this old mans recollection) that the pattern was similar.

Bears watching imo as we chug through Oct.

Broader market indicators (Russel, SnP, Trans, Banks etc) paint a far more dismal picture than Blue-chip Dow ...all the while T's (Yield) track higher. (see Link)

DX-94 ...5.5% LY ...PoG ???

We Watch!
TownCrier
(10/12/2005; 13:17:49 MDT - Msg ID: 136831)
China's wealth gap reaching critical level
http://today.reuters.com/news/NewsArticle.aspx?type=lifeAndLeisureNews&storyID=uri:2005-10-11T125642Z_01_KNE144381_RTRUKOC_0_US-POVERTY-CHINA.xml&pageNumber=0∑mit=GUANGZHOU, China (Reuters) - Eight years ago, Chen Hua thought she'd put poverty behind her when she left her remote, mountain village in Sichuan province for a factory job in China's booming Pearl River Delta.

But even in one of the wealthiest and most dynamic parts of a country on the rise, she's finding the dividends of China's economic revolution do not always pay out.

Earlier this year, the garment workshop where she snipped dangling threads from clothes suddenly stopped paying wages. For several months, she and her colleagues kept working, hoping they would eventually be paid.

Then one day, the boss vanished and the factory closed.

Today, Chen, 53, hawks maps on a bridge near the Guangzhou train station in the capital of the southern province of Guangdong, where on a good day she earns 30 yuan. For a time after the factory closed, she recycled trash for money.

"At least now I can stand in one place and don't have to walk around all day," she says with a stoic smile.

...one of the most dangerous features to develop on China's socio-political landscape: the growing chasm between rich and poor in the world's seventh-biggest economy.

Persistent poverty in China's countryside, against the backdrop of fast-growing cities, has sparked social unrest in some spots and elicited sympathy from the wider populace.

The public was outraged in 2003 when a driver in northeastern China ran over and killed a peasant with her BMW, but was given a light sentence.

The leadership in Beijing is deeply concerned there could be a wider backlash, threatening a decade of strong economic growth...

When China's late paramount leader Deng Xiaoping ignited the country's market reforms in the late 1970s, he espoused a trickle-down approach, saying: "Let some people get rich first."

Some have become gloriously rich....

...the greater the inequality, and the prospect for unrest.

"That means it's already a critical time."

To escape poverty, country dwellers keep pouring off trains in cities like Guangzhou and the nearby border boomtown of Shenzhen, where Liu Zhengde begs for change outside a candy store in a lively shopping district.

Originally from the Henan province in China's heartland, Liu has drifted for much of his life. He has never married, and his last job was selling fruit in the central city of Wuhan.

That venture failed a few months ago, leaving the equivalent of less than 6 U.S. cents in the pocket of the weathered man with a wiry beard and wide eyes who, asked his age, says: "over 80."

"I couldn't even afford a steamed bun. Those cost five mao. All I had was four," he said. "Everybody said go to Guangdong."

The economic boom has made Guangdong one of the wealthiest places in China. But opportunity has been elusive for Liu who sleeps under bridges.

"All I want is enough money to buy a train ticket back home."

^----(see url for full article)----^

Bottom line: China will not be rushed prematurely into monetary reforms on the say so of the United States. China will rather act in its own time as domestic conditions warrant.

Getting pre-revaluation gold (that is to say, cheaply and as much as possible) into the hands of your masses to the greatest extent possible can only ever be trumpeted as a social good -- a social stabilizer, especially through times of transition.

It's good for you, too. Call USAGOLD-Centennial for a discussion on a diversification strategy that's right for you. October has a reputation for being a scary month on stocks. Meanwhile, any dip in gold is friendly on your pocketbook. Call today.

1-800-869-5115

R.
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(10/12/2005; 13:18:38 MDT - Msg ID: 136832)
FREE Gold Information Packet...
http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html

FREE Info Packet
The Hoople
(10/12/2005; 13:32:25 MDT - Msg ID: 136833)
MK,
MK: I think you are right. Another "pre-scary numbers" vaccination for gold. If the script goes to plan, and I'm not so certain nowadays, they have tagged it to $6 below $480 to allow for the $6 collar up day coming. That is followed by a tepid $2-3 follow through day and a 3rd day unchanged or slightly down. Then come the pundits proclaiming gold couldn't muster another multi-year high therefore it is looking tired and another smash job is attempted. Will it work this time? Something feels different and the shiny seems to be misbehaving more often lately. I think lately slowing the ascension is all they hope for.

To A previous forum poster here: (sorry, the handle eludes me) you mentioned Delphi's needed 2/3 reduction in wages and benefits as also possibly foretelling the % dollar decline. This 2/3 reduction could apply to many imbalances that exist. Housing in many markets 2/3 overvalued? Stock market Indices overvalued by 2/3 based on historic p/e's? Bonds? Professional athletes? Conversely is gold maybe UNDERvalued by 2/3 ? POG $1,500 non-managed? Are all these imbalances seeking resolution? IMO definitely.

All: The Refco situation once again shows what else is probably lurking out there. Financial ghosts and goblins from years gone by can surface anytime. Greenspan's vehement opposition to regulating otc's and derivatives have jammed the closets full of skeletons. Maybe Niederhoffer sneezed in 1997 and Refco just caught the flu.
TownCrier
(10/12/2005; 13:37:36 MDT - Msg ID: 136834)
Investors take cover in precious metals
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ft/20051012/bs_ft/fto101220051306462841%3B_ylt=A86.I1n2Xk1DpQMAPALv5rEF%3B_ylu=X3oDMTBjMHVqMTQ4BHNlYwN5bnN1YmNhdA--Oct 12 (Financial Times) -- The dollar's recent rally stalled on Wednesday in spite of renewed expectations of further US interest rate rises following the release of the minutes of the last Federal Reserve policy meeting.

Equity markets put in relatively lacklustre performances but precious metals prices advanced as investors sought protection from the threat of inflation.

Wall Street got off to an uncertain start... European stocks turned downward after two days of gains... Asia was also broadly weaker...

Gold briefly pushed above $480 an troy ounce to touch its highest level for more than 17 years as funds bought up the metal amid inflation concerns. "With the significant level of fund enthusiasm [set] to drive prices higher and a favourable technical trend, gold appears likely to test the next resistance at $481 in the near term," said Barclays Capital. By the end of European trading, however, spot gold was back down to about $475...

^---(from url)---^

As noted yesterday by analyst Peter Grandich in excerpts of the Daily Market Report, many of gold's recent price "corrections" have come in the form of short-lived intra-day dips that are effectively here one moment and then gone the next.

It's never a sure thing to predict where your most advantageous entry point might be, but one thing that IS always certain is the ownership of gold. That is to say, at the moment it could benefit you the most, you either have it, or you don't.

R.
TownCrier
(10/12/2005; 13:52:17 MDT - Msg ID: 136835)
MMTC plans retail gold showrooms
http://www.business-standard.com/bsonline/storypage.php?&autono=202808New Delhi�October 13, 2005 -- The state-owned MMTC Ltd plans to set up about 20 gold retail showrooms, for jewellery and investment bars, under its brand Sanchi over 6 to 8 months.

According to chairman and managing director S D Kapoor, "We have just two showrooms as of today, including one in our corporate office. Our gold festivals, like the one currently on in Delhi, have received good response following immense trust in our brand. This is pushing us getting into showrooms."

"High prices do hit buying sentiment but then people also tend to realise that gold is likely to move to higher levels over the times to come." Gold has risen to current $470-480 (an ounce) levels from a low of $375 last year.

Further, he said, "The current high prices will not hit festival demand. Festive demand is seen aggressive and we also feel prices will only rise to higher levels, unless some (international) banks, which are contemplating to offloads some of their gold stocks, sell off some stock, say 30-40 tonne. Only that can pull prices down in the current scenario."

Global production of prime gold is around 2,000 tonne with another 400 tonne being recycled gold output.

^---(from url)---^

Actually, on that last remark, it is the "tonnage" of artificially created "paper gold" (derivatives and loans upon unallocated accounts) that most greatly have the power to pull prices down.

But with central banks demonstrating a mark-to-market reserve preference, and engaging in gold reallocations which are most explicably done in conjunction an impending structural transition and revaluation of the precious yellow reserve asset, you can be sure that outright selling of CB gold to the market is a non-issue, and further (and most importantly) that CB support and facilitation of the bullion banking sector's creation of "paper gold" is on the decline.

R.
USAGOLD Daily Market Report
(10/12/2005; 15:29:15 MDT - Msg ID: 136836)
Page Update!
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Daily Gold Market Report has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.

WEDNESDAY Market Excerpts

Gold reatreats after hitting new 18-yr high

October 12 (from Reuters, DowJones) -- U.S. gold futures retreated on Wednesday, after prices earlier spiked to a new 18-year peak, in what analysts and traders tended to attribute to liquidation and "backing and filling" rather any major change in the technical trend or influence from other markets. Fund profit-taking emerged to cap the market's rally below $480 an ounce, for now, said traders and analysts.

"I think all of the things that have made it a strong market are still in place," said Bill O'Neill, one of the principals with LOGIC Advisors.

"Gold over the last year has had a pattern of higher highs and higher lows. It's been a nice, orderly rally, which is the best kind of rally."

COMEX benchmark December gold contracts tumbled $3.20 to finish at $476.60.

Carl Birkelbach of Birkelbach Management Inc. in Chicago said, "It has fallen off a little bit here, as I think it's going to do" at times before it eventually hits a $500 over the next few months.

Gold has been rallying in many currencies, as well as against an old rival, the dollar. It scaled a record high in euro terms at 401.41 euros per ounce and a 12-year high in sterling at 275.82 British pounds per ounce.

Moves in other markets Wednesday were actually supportive, even though gold fell. For instance, as gold was closing, November crude was up $1.12 a barrel. Also, the euro had risen to $1.2033 from $1.1993 late Tuesday.

"It's the same old story supporting gold -- it's inflation, with current high oil prices -- but it also a new story that is building," he said, referring to growing concerns among investors about U.S. economic growth and geopolitical issues like the ongoing war in Iraq.

Gold, which is seen as one of the classic "hard assets" investors turn to in times of uncertainty, has risen about 8 percent this year, based on the nearby COMEX futures contract.

That compares with a more traditional investment such as the S&P 500 Index , which has lost 2.8 percent over the same period.

---(see url for full news, 24-hr newswire, market quotes)---
TownCrier
(10/12/2005; 15:34:09 MDT - Msg ID: 136837)
Gold demand zooms 42%
http://www.financialexpress.com/fe_full_story.php?content_id=105382(NEW DELHI, OCT 12) -- The buoyant economy has cast its magic spell on gold demand, which zoomed 42% during the quarter ending June 2005.

The rise was steep compared to increase in demand of 8.6% recorded during 2004.

^---(as reported at url)---^

Discerning customers can't and won't be satisfied with paper gold.

R.
TownCrier
(10/12/2005; 15:40:57 MDT - Msg ID: 136838)
Gold will rise: analyst
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20051012.wgoldtip1012/BNStory/Business/October 12, 2005
Globe and Mail Update

TORONTO -- The price of gold has already risen significantly since the beginning of the year, but it stands to go even considerably higher still, according to Canaccord Capital Corp., which has just boosted its estimate of the peak gold price over the next 12 months to $525 (U.S.) an ounce from $485.

Steven Butler, who follows the sector for Canaccord, bases his favourable view of gold on a number of factors, including the concerns about inflation or stagflation, the relatively low interest rates, the outlook for the U.S. dollar and gold supply/demand fundamentals that are supportive of the gold price. Ongoing geopolitical risks and uncertainties also contribute to the upbeat story on bullion.

Mr. Butler also noted in his report yesterday that this year's advance notwithstanding, gold has substantially underperformed other commodities, including oil and copper. Since January, 2004, gold is only up 14 per cent, while oil prices have climbed 90 per cent and copper prices 70 per cent.

And he pointed out that the ratio comparing the price of gold to that of oil, while it is higher than it was on Sept. 1, is still near record lows.

^---(from url)---^

In other words, gold has plenty of fundamental reason, plenty of room, and lots of catching up to do.

Choose gold with confidence. A call to USAGOLD-Centennial will help you sort out a diversification strategy that's right for you.
Toll Free!!
1-800-869-5115 extension 100

R.
Cometose
(10/12/2005; 16:18:44 MDT - Msg ID: 136839)
GE : SInclair and 529 Gold
In a dvd recorded in association with monex ....

Jim SINCLAIR outlined a historical perspective on GOLD the last time around and the TICS DATA...report .....(US's ability to finance it's debt on a postive net basis...3 months in negative reports and strikes your out) ...

Mr Sinclair , in his remarks stated that 529 was a sort of maginot line....

He said some relatively severe remarks in that regard and suggested that if 529 is cut through like butter....it would indicate the worst may have occured....(unseen)...
and that it may run ........hard....

It might be that this latest action in the GOLD price wherein it detached itself from the dollar price (inverse relationship) may be a reflection of the DEFACTO WORLD VIEW ....that whether the TICS DATA SHOW IT OR NOT (CARRIBEAN SESSPOOL BANKERS GROUP BUYING TREASURIES TO SHORE UP TICS DATA STATEMENTS)

THE USS JIG (IS UP) ....sprung a big leak and taking on WATER....because her FINANCIAL SHIP has been run aground by a bunch of bankers who wanted to bleed her.......

melda laure
(10/12/2005; 16:56:10 MDT - Msg ID: 136840)
Hoople's 2/3rds... that's a lot
OH my aching head.

They want 2/3rds of what?
New Pay = Old Pay x (1 - 2/3)
That means, 1 / (1 - 2/3) .... 300% increase for POG? I'll have to switch to buying those winky little 2peso coins.

Delphi needs a new business model. I dont doubt their figure for an instant, yet it is equally absurd to think that they were paying 3 times the market wage. The union is the clueless party here: they're about to lose pension, bennys, wages AND jobs. Somehow, I doubt that, were a non-union parts maker to move in next door, the offered wage package would be 2/3rds of what Delphi is paying now. How much of that 2/3rds is due to pension shortfalls I wonder? How much bigger will the pension shortfalls become once the bottom really falls out?

Which only means that the real losers are the pensioners, and the taxpayers that have to bail out the PBGC via higher inflation and that will push POG up. The only reason afganis (old paper afghan money) have value is because the presses stopped when the government went bust.
melda laure
(10/12/2005; 16:57:17 MDT - Msg ID: 136841)
(No Subject)
should've said, "2/3rds LESS THAN"
mikal
(10/12/2005; 17:14:15 MDT - Msg ID: 136842)
Gold previews
http://www.bvom.com/news/english/news/index.asp?.sequence=35593&.this=60Gold On Rise - Xinhuanet - October 12, 2005
Sundeck
(10/12/2005; 18:19:22 MDT - Msg ID: 136843)
Indian buying
http://fx.sauder.ubc.ca/cgi/fxplot?b=XAU&c=INR&rd=*&fd=1&fm=1&fy=2000&ld=31&lm=12&ly=2005&y=daily&q=volume&f=png&a=lin&m=0&x=Ref TC's #136835 on Indian gold show-rooms and buying...

Snip:

"High prices do hit buying sentiment but then people also tend to realise that gold is likely to move to higher levels over the times to come."

Sundeck: ...and why wouldn't the Indian public go on buying? ...using their hard-earned (depreciating) rupees for a piece of stable wealth in their land where wealth for the many is doled out in small portions...and awareness of gold is high.

Look at the linked chart of the performance of the rupee against gold for the last five years, and ask yourself if you had a small surplus from your earnings, but not enough to invest in any large investment strategy, where could you store it so that it's value is preserved...nay, even increased?

;-)
mikal
(10/12/2005; 18:38:37 MDT - Msg ID: 136844)
@Sundeck
http://www.financialexpress.com/fe_full_story.php?content_id=105382Gold Demand Zooms 42% - FE - October 13, 2005
Re: "value". Appearances are deceiving.
David Linkley
(10/12/2005; 18:47:55 MDT - Msg ID: 136845)
European temper tantrum or preemptive selling
Once again the US stock market was saved from a downdraft after the Apple earnings report and gold was taken down inspite of a lower dollar. The Euro continues to take on the appearance of shredded paper vs. gold and it made me wonder if a bit of panic didn't set in among the ECU leaders. The outlook economically for the US looks increasing dire as rising energy costs and interest rates may be the final 1-2 punch to launch a recession in 2006. The Fed will print massively or we will begin a deflationary event most likely beginning next year. Gold is a must in every porfolio.
Flaccus
(10/12/2005; 20:08:43 MDT - Msg ID: 136846)
A thought on the recently awarded Nobel Prize for economics. . .
Those of us who understand any moment of time on this planet as a "confluence" willl not be surprised by the performance of gold over the past nearly four years. There is no question among the enlighented (and that is all I engage at this moment) whether gold will go on. . . . It will.

The only question is whether or not the enlightened will act in their own best interest.

I had a friend tell me over coffee yesterday that he had finally succumbed to reality that the dollar was in trouble -- that he would contribute to its demise (regretably) by protecting his own interests. This day he would purchase gold (naturally through USAGold). I replied that no matter what he did, the demise would go forward pushed by historical forces few of us truly understand. (Read Tolstoy) Why not, I asked, act to protect what you worked hard to attain? I sharpened a reality of which he was already well aware.

They give Nobel Prizes to those who understand gamesmanship in the economic and political sphere. And well they should. So much of this is no more than a game. The spoils go to those who understand how to play it. More than that, the spoils, in the final analysis, go to those who survive.

I invoke the Armstrong dictum as an appositive: "One small step for man, one large step for mankind." Not that gold ownership is so monumental a step. It does however allow the "man" to continue on. . .no matter what the society (mankind), or the forces of history, impose. Gold becomes the game winner through gamesmanship in the ultimate sense. He who owns the gold makes the rules -- a definitively patriotic act. And all simply because you acted to protect your own interest. I'll turn Armstrong on its head: "One large step for Man, one small step for Mankind."

That's what gold is. . . in a nutshell. Simply. Nothing more. Nothing less.

I'll close with that having, for the moment, mercifully run out of words.


_______________

Dedicated to the memory of Ayn Rand, whose 100th birthday we celebrate this year. . .
Goldendome
(10/12/2005; 21:50:09 MDT - Msg ID: 136847)
Statistical analyst sees near certainty of GM bankruptcy.
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/willie101205.htmlSnipped from the article:

" It is no coincidence to me that on a single day, Delphi filed for bankruptcy, the Bank of America upped their estimated likelihood of eventual General Motors bankruptcy to 30%, and Standard & Poor downgraded GM debt one level deeper in junk status. The next day GOLD TOUCHED 480 ON THE DECEMBER FUTURES CONTRACT. My viewpoint has it that gold is being purchased not so much as a price inflation hedge but for a HEDGE AGAINST SYSTEMIC RISK." ...

..." Bank of America has raised its estimate from 10% to 30% for the likelihood of a GM bankruptcy. My number is 99% in an easy call."
Goldendome
(10/12/2005; 22:00:52 MDT - Msg ID: 136848)
(No Subject)
Sir Flaccus: Nicely put!
Sundeck
(10/12/2005; 23:40:09 MDT - Msg ID: 136849)
GM bankruptcy probability
@Goldendome re #136847

Ahhh....yes, but can you imagine Standard and Poors issueing a 99% bankruptcy rating on GM?

It certainly does not look good... I suspect there is going to be a LOT going on behind the scenes on this one...as well as on the dollar and the economy generally.

Probably not what Sir Al was hoping for as his finale, but "Thems is the breaks...Yer pays yer money and yer takes yer chances." All in all not shaping-up to be a very pretty time ahead...maybe Big Al and the Snowman can come home from China with some great news on the yuan...how about a dollar pegged to a basket of the yuan, yen and euro with MTM gold??

;-)
Topaz
(10/13/2005; 02:29:41 MDT - Msg ID: 136850)
DX 90.
http://www.crbtrader.com/data/default.asp?page=defaultAcross the Board alt-currency softness should see Buck punch through 90 this am.
PoG not resisting however Bond Yields only mildly higher. This could change if 90 is taken out convincingly.

SM futures will also be forced to give a bit of Rosy back imo.

We Watch!
Camel
(10/13/2005; 08:49:23 MDT - Msg ID: 136851)
Warming trend
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/10/12/AR2005101202498.html Whatever the cause, the graph at the end of the article should at least settle the question of weather there is a warming trend. For quite a while there was a pretty vocal group that denied even that.
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(10/13/2005; 10:02:42 MDT - Msg ID: 136852)
What you need to know before you buy your first ounce of gold...
http://www.usagold.com/cpm/goldhelp.html

Q. What makes USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals different from its competitors in terms of its interaction with clients?

MK. Our business philosophy allows us to take a more laid-back approach. We don't employ a room full of brokers spinning the phones day and night. We don't have multi-million dollar advertising expenses dictating what kind of advice we give clients. This is all by choice. I decided long ago that I didn't want the headaches that go with managing a large number of brokers and the support staff and facilities required. At the same time, we get hundreds of requests each month for introductory information packets. We do not make cold calls. We do not work mailing lists. We do not call people at all hours of the day or night. We do not use marketing and sales gimmicks -- leaders, bait and switch, and the rest of it. We primarily work with clients who have discovered us, like what they see, and want to form a long term relationship with a reputable and reliable gold firm.

Q. Does the "laid-back approach" limit your business?

MK. Yes and no. In the short run, "yes." In the long run, "no." We probably lose a few prospects to the aggressive companies which use hard-sell tactics but we will not be changing our client-friendly approach. We know that not every prospective investor is going to become a client of USAGOLD / Centennial. However, we know that the client who chooses us is likely to be the type of client we are accustomed to doing business with. We work with a large number of professional people and business owners -- active, retired and semi-retired. In fact, we work with clientele that span the economic spectrum and all walks of life. Getting back to how our approach sets us apart from our competitors, we get quite a few disgruntled high net worth clients who come to us after being run through the mill by some of the boiler-room operations I've referred to earlier. They are usually grateful that they found us.

Q. And finally, is there anything else you would like to share with us?

MK. Fundamentally, we believe that we are here to serve the client. Anyone who has done business with us will vouch for the courteous and professional service he or she has received. Our staff is carefully chosen and it shows. We get referrals on nearly a daily basis and are kept busy with strong repeat business. I would also like to call attention to the solid informational services offered at this website. We believe that any of our clients or visitors will find USAGOLD head and shoulders above anything else out there. I would encourage anyone attending this site to have a look around and take advantage of our introductory information packet which we've made immediately accessible online by request. Above and beyond that, the most important thing is the way we treat our clientele. From first inquiry through order fulfillment, we want to make the gold investing experience as pleasant and rewarding as possible. We have a large and satisfied clientele and that's the way we want to keep it.

TownCrier
(10/13/2005; 10:29:13 MDT - Msg ID: 136853)
Oil costs fuel US trade deficit to third largest
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4338778.stm(BBC) Oct 13 -- The increased cost of importing oil has further swelled the US trade deficit.

The deficit rose 1.8% to $59bn in August -- its third highest monthly sum -- as the US spent a record $17.2bn on buying crude oil supplies.

Experts said Katrina - which struck New Orleans on August 29 - had had no discernible impact on August's trade figures.

The deficit is expected to rise more substantially in September as Hurricane Katrina's economic impact is reflected in trade data for the first time.

US oil production hit a 50-year low in September as Hurricanes Katrina and Rita hit output in the Gulf of Mexico.

The average cost of an barrel of imported oil rose to an all-time high of $52.65 in August, pushing the overall US deficit with members of oil producers cartel Opec to a record high.

World oil prices remained above $60 a barrel throughout August, breaking through the $70 barrier after Hurricane Katrina struck land.

The politically-sensitive US deficit with China increased a further 4.6% ....... "that's going to raise protectionist rhetoric in Congress," said Rebecca Patterson, currency strategist with JP Morgan in New York.

^----(from url)---^

Above and beyond higher oil prices, any increase in the price of goods coming out of China will likely only add further to our trade deficit -- after all, where else will the goods come from as cheaply? Because, as we all know, the goods WILL come at whatever higher price as imports because that's how people are, and we don't presently have the facilities to make them domestically.

More future stress on the dollar and diminishment of its purchasing power.

R.
TownCrier
(10/13/2005; 10:41:05 MDT - Msg ID: 136854)
China snubs U.S. demand for faster yuan reform
http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh04488_2005-10-13_10-24-11_pek220846_newsmlBEIJING, Oct 13 (Reuters) - Chinese Finance Minister Jin Renqing on Thursday snubbed U.S. demands for faster currency reform, saying the country will liberalise the exchange rate in its own time and in line with its own interests.

Jin was speaking ahead of a weekend meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors from 20 wealthy and developing nations to be attended by U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow, who has urged China to move more quickly to let market forces determine the exchange rate of the yuan, or renminbi.

The G20 meeting, to be held from October 15-16 at the Grand Epoch City, a holiday resort near Beijing, would discuss the global economy, reforms of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, and the problems of ageing populations and migration, Jin said.

"Using revaluation of the renminbi to resolve global imbalances, particularly the imbalances of certain countries, is impossible and also unnecessary," Jin told reporters in a briefing on G20 issues.

"On the currency issue, China will move forward in a step-by-step manner in line with its goal, but we will not take direction from other people."

China, which revalued the yuan by 2.1 percent on July 21 and scrapped its long-standing dollar peg, was reforming its currency system according to its own interests.

"The Chinese government has made clear that it will pursue a market economy and will therefore definitely let the market play a bigger role in determining the exchange rate," Jin said.

^---(see URL for full article)---^

That's precisely the gist of what I was saying yesterday.

Further..... "Jin said China did not want an excessively high trade surplus, but was thwarted in its desire to buy more from "certain countries", a thinly veiled reference to U.S. export controls that prevent the sale of some high-tech items to China."

Pssssst. In such case, it becomes inevitable to consider physical gold purchases as the means to bring trade into balance. It also eliminates the asymmetry of privilege bestowed on the singular country whose currency has been given primary "reserve" status.

Jin's later remarks about T-bonds were simply obligatory to help keep the transitional waters calm.

R.
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(10/13/2005; 10:48:54 MDT - Msg ID: 136855)
Since 1973. Proven Reliability, Longevity, Quality and Professionalism ---- Invest with Confidence!!
http://www.usagold.com/cpm/aboutcpm.html

Better Business Bureau Certificate
TownCrier
(10/13/2005; 11:27:45 MDT - Msg ID: 136856)
NY gold off highs in thin early trade
http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh11224_2005-10-13_14-18-24_n13363320_newsmlNEW YORK, Oct 13 (Reuters) - U.S. gold futures pulled back from an 18-year high on Thursday morning, knocked down by a second day of profit-taking by fund-type accounts in holiday-thinned trading, market sources said.

Gold had reached a new peak of $483.10 an ounce Wednesday on the investment buying that recently has been fueled by inflation fears and seasonal physical demand for bullion. That was the loftiest price for futures since January 1988.

"It looks like the last two days has just been profit-taking from the funds," said a precious metals trader at a bank.

Gold's outlook remains strong overall and the price should resume its rally toward $500, Standard Bank said in a note.

"This dip in prices, after four consecutive days of gains, could present a buying opportunity for funds and investors, which is consistent with gold's recent pattern of rallying, retracing on profit-taking, and further rallying on renewed buying that tends to emerge when prices retrace," it said.

^---(from url)---^
Goldilox
(10/13/2005; 11:32:44 MDT - Msg ID: 136857)
McEwen on CNBC
Rob McEwen, Golfcorp Chairman, was just given a pretty nice spot on CNBC explaining his views on near-term $500 gold. He also commented that the uncertainties caused by events like those at Refco only increase interest in physical gold.
TownCrier
(10/13/2005; 12:13:33 MDT - Msg ID: 136858)
Dollar hits 2-year high vs yen
http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh16716_2005-10-13_17-51-48_n13496061_newsmlNEW YORK, Oct 13 (Reuters) - The dollar on Thursday climbed to its highest against the yen in more than two years after the U.S. trade deficit for August came in a bit narrower than forecast and did nothing to shake expectations that interest rates would keep rising.

The dollar rose to 115.09 yen, its highest since September 2003, according to Reuters data.

TJ Marta, senior currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets in Toronto said "Right now, global imbalances aren't the issue. It's not that they haven't gone away. Everyone is just concerned about the inflation virus."

^---(from url)----^

In yet another Reuters article, the following observation was made:

The last time the dollar was above 115.00 yen was around
the time of the Group of Seven meeting in Dubai in September
2003. The G7's statement at that meeting called for "more
flexibility in exchange rates ... based on market mechanisms"
and was widely seen as an implicit call for reduced
dollar-buying intervention from Asian central banks and
therefore a weaker dollar.

You'll want to puzzle through that one for yourselves. Meanwhile, as the dollar is only at a two-year high against the yen, gold has been steadily rising for the past five years against the yen -- as can be seen at the link I'll be posting subsequently.

Furthermore, in these past few days gold has been probing 18-year highs against the dollar itself.

See the aforementioned chart, and imagine which reserve asset you would want to choose as a Japanese saver.

R.
TownCrier
(10/13/2005; 12:13:39 MDT - Msg ID: 136859)
The previously-mentioned yen per gold chart
http://fx.sauder.ubc.ca/cgi/fxplot?b=XAU&c=JPY&rd=*&fd=1&fm=1&fy=2000&ld=31&lm=12&ly=2005&y=daily&q=volume&f=png&a=lin&m=0&x=Even though the dollar is at a two-year high against the yen, gold is doing even better.

Bottom line: to diversify your domestic currency holdings, why choose an equally inflatable foreign currency when you can as easily choose physical gold -- especially at a time when key central banks are pulling in the reins on the inflation of paper gold?

R.
Goldilox
(10/13/2005; 12:43:49 MDT - Msg ID: 136860)
Hurricane Bone Pile reachess 438K
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/051013/economy.html?.v=2snip:

In other news, the government reported that the number of people who have lost their jobs because of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita jumped to 438,000 last week, helping push the number of first-time jobless claims nationwide for the week to 389,000. The Labor Department reported that an additional 75,000 hurricane-related claims were filed last week out of the nationwide total.

Government analysts said that Katrina, which hit near New Orleans on Aug. 29, was still accounting for more layoffs than Rita, which came ashore near the Texas-Louisiana border on Sept. 24.

The rise of 75,000 in hurricane-related unemployment benefit claims was up slightly from 74,000 such claims two weeks ago, the first week that claims from Rita showed up. The highest week for claims attributed to the hurricanes was the week ending Sept. 17, when claims from Katrina totaled 108,000.

Analysts said it is likely that hurricane-related claims have peaked but they said it was likely that they will remain a significant portion of total jobless claims for several more weeks, reflecting the widespread destruction which wiped out thousands of businesses along the Gulf Coast.

-Goldilox

And this is only those "eligible" for UC, not including the self-employed. This is mixed in with the trade deficit numbers in this article.
TownCrier
(10/13/2005; 12:58:47 MDT - Msg ID: 136861)
Refco halts operations at unit
http://today.reuters.com/news/NewsArticle.aspx?type=businessNews&storyID=2005-10-13T175955Z_01_MAR350680_RTRUKOC_0_US-FINANCIAL-REFCO.xmlEW YORK (Reuters) - Refco Inc., the commodities and futures brokerage whose shares have fallen more than 60 percent this week, on Thursday said the liquidity at a major company unit is no longer sufficient to continue operations, fueling concerns about the entire firm's survival.

The latest news comes after federal authorities charged former chief executive officer Phillip Bennett with securities fraud on Wednesday over hundreds of millions of dollars in transactions owed to the company by an entity he controlled.

Refco said in a statement it would halt activities at its Refco Capital Markets unit -- a fixed-income, equities and foreign exchange brokerage that also lends securities and acts as a prime broker -- for 15 days to protect its value.

"This company is in serious jeopardy," said analyst Kevin Starke with Weeden & Co.

Refco's 9 percent coupon bond due 2012 dominated trading in the U.S. secondary bond market on Thursday as it plummeted to 52.25 cents on the dollar, from 75.5 cents on Wednesday, according to MarketAxess.

It had traded as high as 108.25 cents on the dollar on Friday last week.

"The fact that the bonds are trading at just above 50 cents on the dollar suggests that bankruptcy is at least a 50-50 possibility.

When Refco went public two months ago and raised $583 million, Bennett and "others known and unknown" concealed related party transactions between Refco and the other undisclosed entity, according to prosecutors. This made the entire company look stronger than it was during its initial public offering.

^----(from url)----^

Woof. Too much stress and intrigue.

Choose gold and fuhgeddaboudit. You'll sleep more easily.

R.
mikal
(10/13/2005; 13:11:29 MDT - Msg ID: 136862)
Gold previews
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?siteid=mktw&dist=moreover&guid={ADC254A7-2C4B-4FA9-AAEB-5D853C05EE97}Big Boys Fighting Over Gold Market? - Peter Brimelow - Marketwatch - October 13, 2005
TownCrier
(10/13/2005; 13:13:26 MDT - Msg ID: 136863)
Against a spread of social unrest, Iraq's Allawi warns against Islamist rulers
http://today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=worldNews&storyID=2005-10-13T182104Z_01_SCH358901_RTRUKOC_0_US-IRAQ-ALLAWI.xmlBAGHDAD (Reuters) - Iraq's former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi said on Thursday that if the Shi'ite Islamists now in power are returned to office in a December election sectarian strife will deepen and destabilize the whole Middle East.

"Religious rule would cast Iraq into problems with a beginning but no end," the secular Shi'ite told Reuters...

"It will not stop at the borders of Iraq. It will spread.

"The battles and problems and secret movements and chaos would prevail across the entire region."

...said Iraqis must stop defining themselves in terms of religion or ethnicity or risk sliding into anarchy.

"We must focus on one Iraq. If people say this or that post can only be occupied by a Sunni or a Shi'ite then we will be going back to the Dark Ages. That does not suit Iraq," he said.

"It is difficult to predict where Iraq is going. Iraq is now at a turning point in an angry sea.

"If we don't use our minds and dialogue and if we don't have a clear vision of what to do, then I think things will slip dramatically in Iraq and the region."

...he said the biggest test will be as Iraq approaches the polls, following a referendum on a draft constitution on Saturday which has deepened sectarian strife.

"Will Iraq rise with all its people or will it stay devoted to sectarianism?" Allawi said. "This is the main question."

^----(from url)---^

Good interview. Will local, regional and world chaos rise or subside?

Either way, choose gold. Although it is a bulwark of security in tumultuous times, often overlooked is its propensity to perform even better under times of widespread social and economic prosperity. A quick case in point is India. As its economy has improved, gold purchase have been booming along with its price.

R.
TownCrier
(10/13/2005; 13:32:45 MDT - Msg ID: 136864)
mikal, your article is too good not to provide an excerpt of the best bits
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/print_story.asp?print=1&guid={ADC254A7-2C4B-4FA9-AAEB-5D853C05EE97}&siteid=mktw(snip) -- Bridgewater Associates said, "One of the more interesting aspects of recent market action has been the continual upward pressure on gold prices while the dollar has been strong. In other words, gold is rising in dollar terms and rising even more in global currency terms."

"Gold is a thin market that can be disproportionately affected by changes in the global pattern of one or a few players. Once a big player steps in, others often get the fever. And since the fair value of gold is not intuitively obvious, you don't get speculators selling into price increases. As a result, price increases tend to be self reinforcing, producing an accelerating upward pattern. ... This is what we are now seeing."

... gold's action had to be the result of technical market activity, because no change in fundamentals has yet been ***generally*** recognized...

"The rise in gold prices is not part of a broader trend toward higher inflation expectations...."

And it suggested the possibility of buyers stepping forward -- presently and, more significantly, in the future:

"Many of the world's oil exporters have a penchant for holding gold; if they only held 1% if their incremental wealth in gold, the incremental oil revenues flowing into these countries would raise the investment demand for gold by 25%."

"We remain long gold and a basket of other commodities, largely from a monetary perspective, as ****central bankers continue to devalue money in order to create a cushion against deflation.****"

^---(full article at url)---^

Bottom line: as all national money is generally on a one-way path of concurrent devaluation by design, it is prudent to choose tangible gold for your principal savings no matter where you are.

R.
Topaz
(10/13/2005; 13:47:51 MDT - Msg ID: 136865)
Au and Ag.
http://www.crbtrader.com/data/default.asp?page=quote&sym=SIZ5&mode=dInteresting to note the 300 odd Ag deliveries today on Comex. A similar mid-month pile (1K approx) went through for Au in mid-Sept.
You get the feeling these left-field Deliveries are Book squaring leftovers from the previous Delivery Months trading and if so, highlights the tightness in Comex Metal supplies.

On that basis, it'd pay to keep an eye on Ag over the next few weeks.
As Smeagol noted, Ag-LR's are tapping along nicely which is ALSO not normally a non-del-mth fun-omenon.
TownCrier
(10/13/2005; 13:47:51 MDT - Msg ID: 136866)
ANALYSIS-Gold gains kudos as alternative to major currencies
http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh18643_2005-10-13_19-31-26_n13652254_newsmlNEW YORK, Oct 13 (Reuters) - The recent broad-based strength of gold, whether measured in U.S. dollars or other major currencies, is a sign that bullion is becoming an alternative currency investment for global investors, analysts say.

In dollar, yen and sterling terms, gold prices rose this week to levels not seen in well over a decade. Meanwhile, gold prices surged to a record high in euro terms.

Although traders cite speculative buying as one of the immediate causes of gold's strong rally, rising inflation and global investors' fear of these price pressures eroding the value of currencies in general is giving gold a firm boost.

Gold's broad rally "coincides with the inflation story gaining traction ... And I think there's probably a decent speculative component in there too," said David Gilmore, partner at FX Analytics, a consultancy based in Essex, Connecticut.

With gold *mainly* priced in dollars, a fall in the value of the U.S. currency means it costs more to buy the same amount of gold.

But as the dollar has rallied in recent weeks -- it hit a two-year high against the yen above 115.00 yen and a three-month high against a basket of currencies on Thursday -- so has gold.

"Clearly there is a momentum towards gold at work. It is flirting with $500 and the indications are it should go through it. That will be a worldwide headline and will attract more buyers," said David Kotok, chairman and chief investment officer of money management firm Cumberland Advisors in Vineland, New Jersey.

"Gold is hoarded by institutions and banks even while they say it has no monetary value, which means they are talking out of both sides of their mouths," Kotok said.

^---(from url)----^

Understand the reasons why they "talk out of both sides of their mouth" and you will inherently know why it is imperative that you, too, become a gold owner. An important transition is stealthily underway.... MTM physical freegold reserves.

R.
USAGOLD Daily Market Report
(10/13/2005; 14:09:13 MDT - Msg ID: 136867)
Page Update!
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Daily Gold Market Report has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.

THURSDAY Market Excerpts

October 13 (from MarketWatch) -- Gold for December delivery closed at $473.80 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange, its lowest since Oct. 5. For the session, it finished down $2.80.

Prices lost over $3 Wednesday, but they're still up over $20 from the month-ago close.

The dollar found the latest economic data supportive, "at least temporarily," said Dale Doelling, chief market technician at Trends In Commodities.

From here, Doelling said he continues "to favor the long side of the metal's trade," adding that "the markets remain well bid and all attempts to move the metals lower are quashed by continued heavy buying as the markets approach these significant support levels."

All in all, however, gold isn't really a dollar-correlation story any longer but is "more a matter of general insecurity," said Frederic Panizzutti, an analyst at MKS Finance in Geneva.

"The world is certainly more worried in 2005 then it was before 2001, and this [is] for various reasons," he said, citing the risk of terrorist threats, high oil prices, and the economic impact from hurricanes.

"In the past, the U.S. dollar would have been considered as an appropriate safe heaven, but most of the actual concerns mentioned here could have a negative or, say, less positive impact on the U.S. economy and [dollar]," he said.

"But gold in physical and non-physical form remains the ideal safe-haven asset and safe haven against any sort of disruption and unexpected happening."

[Editor note: since when does something in an ethereal "non-physical form" qualify to be called safe-haven gold? It isn't, and doesn't. Paper is as paper does.]

---(see url for full news, 24-hr newswire, market quotes)---
Topaz
(10/13/2005; 14:21:53 MDT - Msg ID: 136868)
T-Yield, DX.
http://www.futuresource.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=TYXY&o=&a=V%3A15&z=610x300&d=LOW&b=CANDLE&st=The accompanying Chart (I hope it loads properly) imo highlights the problem the US faces as she relinquishes monetary control to "foreigners".
Each morning you are in catch-up mode after e-trading has set the scene for the day ahead. With Yield gap up came the DX reaction which saw it run to 90.3 on open ...and it took 'till after lunch to get it going back down, saving the SM's in the process.

Will the alts turn tail and run "this" time?

We'll see.
Goldendome
(10/13/2005; 17:27:01 MDT - Msg ID: 136869)
Topaz: Interesting chart-- What is it showing us?

Gaps are made to be filled - so I've heard.

Strikes me that this market seems to levitate from one day to the next. Like floating on air.

There seems no context from one day to the next. Is that part of the point you're making?

Describe, if you will, the meaning of the candles, black, white, tails, etc. If that is not too long an exercise.

Thanks.
TownCrier
(10/13/2005; 19:58:00 MDT - Msg ID: 136870)
Trade deficit soars � and it's bound to go higher
http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/business/20051013-1453-economy.html(AP) October 13, 2005, WASHINGTON -- The nation's oil bill surged to a record in August and so did goods imported from China, pushing the U.S. trade deficit to the third-highest level ever. And it is bound to get worse because hurricane-related increases for oil are still ahead.

"Record crude prices usually mean record trade gaps. Nobody sees relief on the energy front any time soon," said Oscar Gonzalez, senior economist at John Hancock Financial Services in Boston.

Economists said this year's trade deficit could exceed $700 billion, far above last year's imbalance of $617.6 billion.

The U.S. deficit with China hit a monthly record of $18.5 billion in August ... 28 percent ahead of last year's pace when it hit $162 billion, the highest level ever with any country.

Political pressure is increasing on the Bush administration to act. In Congress, there is wide support for legislation that would impose 27.5 percent penalty tariffs on all Chinese products unless Beijing allows its currency to rise further in value against the American dollar.

U.S. textile manufacturers announced they were filing a petition with the administration that seeks limits on imports of towels from China.

In the absence of comprehensive caps, the U.S. industry has filed -- and the administration has granted -- limits on a category-by-category basis, a process that U.S. retailers contend drives up clothing prices for American consumers.

[Inducing higher prices per article, and yet they wonder why the dollar size of the imbalance grows??? Apparently the curative is for people to "go commando".]

The overall August imbalance was driven higher by a 12.2 percent jump in crude oil imports...

The price for a barrel of crude the foreign oil bill rose to a record average price of $52.65 in August, compared with $49.03 in July.

Analysts said there will be a further jump in the September oil bill, reflecting the rise in crude prices since the hurricanes. This month, the barrel price briefly topped $70.

^---(from url)----^

Harmonies of a theme we covered this morning.

R.
Goldilox
(10/13/2005; 20:18:46 MDT - Msg ID: 136871)
Trade Gap "measures"
@ TC, et al,

Isn't it interesting that Washington measures to "fix" the trade gap include tarriffs and other methods to RAISE prices, not lower them. Just like the FED's answer to everything is more print more dollars,TPTB efforts to achieve parity are all focused on - more inflafla!

In contrast to their reputation as "inflation fighters", I think of the FED as an anagram for:

'Flation Engine Delivery"
David Linkley
(10/13/2005; 21:01:02 MDT - Msg ID: 136872)
Derivatives fuse lit?
A couple of weeks ago The Fed calls in 14 of the largest derivatives traders for a special meeting under the guise of poor back office record keeping then presto, Refco becomes public and billions of dollars of derivatives are temporarily frozen. Goldman Sachs stock drops liken a rock this week and they become the lead advisor for Refco. The depth of the financial corruption in the US continues to unfold on almost a weekly basis. Financial players who have shorted gold for years now find themselves hopelessly buried. Barrick Gold's hedge position is now estimated to be 2.3 billion dollars underwater and heading to 3 billion should gold continue to rise. The stress under the surface on Wall Street has the Treasury and Fed scrambling on a regular basis to hold volatility down and the DJIA up. Folks your last call for cheap gold has been sounded but most people can't hear it or don't care. Do you?
Druid
(10/13/2005; 22:40:13 MDT - Msg ID: 136873)
I'm SKEERT.....

Druid: Does MK have a barn or some sort of large dwelling that we few that understand wtfigo can hunker down should the shtf? I'd like to go down with like-minded people. I was talking to a friend tonight who is financially well off about the level of currency and credit creation over the last few decades and was told that I was Un-American. I just suggested to him that the present Administration's response of ramping the credit spigot to the recent hurricane problems might compound an already existing problem of indebtedness.

Currently reading "Debt and Delusion" by Peter Warburton. I think I know what my problem is, I'm watching the wrong TV program. Oh please! Get me back on that blue pill.
Topaz
(10/14/2005; 01:17:58 MDT - Msg ID: 136874)
G'lox.
The "gap" you refer to is created in o'nite e-trade as the Chart depicted only shows 9-5 approx ie: Your DAY.
Now, (taking a bit of licence;-) upon revelation in the morning that Bonds have weakened, the Black Boxes have to run the Buck up to maintain a composite $ parity value. Y'see it's all in the image.

To put it into numbers eg, x = 113 times 89.6 OR 112.16 (thats 16/32)times 90.
Thankfully x is a moving target (somehow?? I think it's $Oil) but you get the picture yes?
Imagine then if Bonds slide to 102 or 5.5% Yield ...can you figure out DX if current x remains constant?
OK ..it's 99.26 ...at parity, 101.

Any good Fin Glossary will explain Candles and the whys and wherefores far more effectively than I G'lox.
The Invisible Hand
(10/14/2005; 02:26:24 MDT - Msg ID: 136875)
WHY GENERAL MOTORS SHOULD FILE FOR BANKRUPTCY�NOW
http://www.politicalgateway.com/main/columns/read.html?col=484Just the title is enough.
Sit back, relax, and enjoy life with your loved ones.
Make sure your yellow doesn't disappear.
Topaz
(10/14/2005; 03:14:45 MDT - Msg ID: 136876)
the "x" Factor ...G'lox, all.
http://www.futuresource.com/charts/micro.jsp?s=GC1%21&s=DX1%21&s=TYXY&s=CL1%21&s=&s=&s=&s=&p=D&v=15&b=LINE&d=LOWIf you look at the Bond, DX, Oil relationship on the Charts, what I was trying to explain is quite clear.
Wouldn't need to be cast in concrete ALL the time, just once a month on settlement day.

So, based on past and current equations we might be able to tag "future" movements eh?
June '04 ...DX 90 = Bond 102 = Oil 35.
Oct '05 ...DX 90 = Bond 113 = Oil 62.
Dec '05 ...DX 94 = Bond 102 = Oil 47.

...and Gold (while this is all going on) D-uh! $30,000 of course ;-)
Topaz
(10/14/2005; 03:20:01 MDT - Msg ID: 136877)
the "x" Factor ...G'lox, all.
http://www.futuresource.com/charts/micro.jsp?s=GC1%21&s=DX1%21&s=TYXY&s=CL1%21&s=&s=&s=&s=&p=D&v=15&b=LINE&d=LOWIf you look at the Bond, DX, Oil relationship on the Charts, what I was trying to explain is quite clear.
Wouldn't need to be cast in concrete ALL the time, just once a month on settlement day.

So, based on past and current equations we might be able to tag "future" movements eh?
June '04 ...DX 90 = Bond 102 = Oil 35.
Oct '05 ...DX 90 = Bond 113 = Oil 62.
Dec '05 ...DX 94 = Bond 102 = Oil 47.

...and Gold (while this is all going on) D-uh! $30,000 of course ;-)
Goldilox
(10/14/2005; 05:34:49 MDT - Msg ID: 136878)
Gold, Bond, Oil Explanation
@ Topaz,

I think Goldendome was the requestor, but it is appreciated all the same!

Very nice comparison.
PRITCHO
(10/14/2005; 06:44:41 MDT - Msg ID: 136879)
Richard Russells Latest Comments - - - A Snip to Feel Good !
http://www.dowtheoryletters.com/DTLOL.nsfThis mans done more for Gold than All the the rants from Gata -- and with more finesse!

SNIP:
The stock market is in a primary bear market.

Tangibles with and emphasis on gold are in a primary bull market.

Oil, natural gas and energy are in a primary bull market.

I've gone over the phases of primary bull and bear markets hundreds of times since I first started writing Dow Theory Letters back in 1958. Therefore, I'm going to spare my older readers a description of the three phases that accompany every bull and bear market. I simply want to talk about the end of the second phase and the entrance of the markets into the third or final phase.

The stock market is currently in its second phase with the third phase lurking somewhere ahead. The second phase is usually the longest and most difficult phase of any bull or bear market. When the stock market ends its current second bear market phase, the brutal times will arrive. This will be the panic phase of the bear market in which those still holding stocks will decide that it's time to "dump everything." The third phase, as the great Dow Theorist described it, is the phase where "those saving for a rainy day -- wake up to find that it's raining."

In the third phase, unlike conditions today, stocks will be selling at single digit price/earnings ratios while dividend yields will be moving into the 6 percent or more zone. As opposed to today's stubborn optimism, in the third phase investor sentiment will turn black-gloomy, and phrases will be heard such as "this is the end of capitalism," or "I don't want to ever hear the words, Wall Street, again."

OK, enough of bear market action -- let's turn to bull markets and energy, oil and gold. We're now probably early in the second phase of the energy/oil/gold bull market. The second phase of the bull market is the longest and most difficult. This is the phase where erratic action, corrections and scare-declines will appear. During the second phase the bull will do everything in his power to shake investors out of their holdings.

I've shown on the gold chart how gold has risen from one zone to the next higher zone, but within each zone we suffered through correction, sudden slides, adverse news reports and instance after instance of negative (scary) news about gold. Anybody who has held gold or gold stocks over the last four years should probably receive the coveted "Stubborn Holders and Survivors" metal. Holding any item through the entire length of a bull market is one of the most difficult feats that any investor can accomplish.

I've stated over and over again during this gold bull market that we should HOLD on to our gold and gold shares. And I'll say it again as gold currently corrects -- "Hang tight, hold on, and if you must do something -- then buy more gold." This is a primary bull market in gold. In a bull market, you close your eyes, you shut off your ears, and ride the bull.

Those subscribers who were with me during the '70s know what I'm talking about. We sweated when we bought gold back in the early 1970s, during the bull market's first phase. We're sweating again now as gold and tangibles move erratically through the tedious, extended second phase.

Finally, the third phase of the bull market will arrive, and this is ironic -- more money will be made during the third phase, and made faster, than was made during the entire first and second phases taken together.

I remember during the early 1970's how gold climbed laboriously higher -- each dollar higher seemed to be accomplished through waiting and agony. Repeated vicious corrections scared us to our bones. Then came the late '70s, and we saw gold surge by huge chunks. Often in one day gold would climb in terms of points almost equal to the entire price of gold during early 1974.

That was the "blow-off" third phase of the bull market in gold. It was comparable to the final explosive move in tech stocks that we witnessed during 1999 and early-2000.

So my advice -- don't let the news, the corrections, the Fed, the propaganda, the Commercials, scare you out of your gold and gold shares. Somewhere ahead the third phase of the gold/tangible will materialize, as it does during all primary bull markets. At that time of intense excitement, subscribers will look back on the year 2005 and ask themselves, "What was I worrying about. That old coot, Russell, told us to sit tight with our gold and tangibles. Damned if he wasn't right."
Survivor
(10/14/2005; 10:47:28 MDT - Msg ID: 136880)
Pritcho's Post
Richard Russell: "Anybody who has held gold or gold stocks over the last four years should probably receive the coveted 'Stubborn Holders and Survivors'medal."

Survivor: Hey! That's me! :)) [Actually, make that six years.]
TownCrier
(10/14/2005; 11:32:53 MDT - Msg ID: 136881)
Venezuelans fret as jail terms on forex take force
http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh39344_2005-10-14_16-01-26_n14718976_newsmlCARACAS, Venezuela, Oct 14 (Reuters) - Venezuelan businessman Manuel's voice betrays his jitters when asked about a tough new law ... which goes into effect on Friday, establish[ing] fines and prison terms of up to seven years in jail to stop transactions outside the strict foreign exchange controls introduced more than two years ago to limit capital flight.

Since the curbs were implemented in early 2003, businesses must apply to a state-run currency board for access to dollars they need for imports and foreign debt.

But traders like Manuel lack official access to dollars because like thousands of small-scale retailers, his business is not government-registered.

The new law says all foreign exchange deals must go through the Central Bank. The sale, purchase, export or import of more than $10,000 a year outside authorized channels can be punished with fines up to double the amount of the transaction.

Manuel's business, which imports clothes which he buys on trips overseas, is not registered with the state currency board CADIVI and his transactions take place on the parallel market where the dollar has traded at a stronger rate -- now at about 2,700 bolivars to the dollar -- than than the official fixed price of 2,150 bolivars to the greenback.

"It's very complicated and it takes a lot of time," he said, referring to the application process to receive legal dollars from the currency control board.

Some small business owners do not apply to the state because their goods were initially considered luxury items for which dollars were not available. Those restrictions have been loosened since the curbs were first put in place.

Others say they prefer not to register private businesses with the government because of the onerous paperwork; others prefer not to deal officially with an administration they believe is copying Cuba-style communism.

Chavez, a former army officer who often rails against capitalism, dismisses those fears and says he is implementing social reforms to reverse years of neglect of the poor.

After the tight controls were introduced, middle-class Venezuelans have used black-market transactions to buy dollars for personal savings. Many make transactions through bank transfers overseas to convert bolivars to hard currency.

^----(from url)---^

One must think that gold is not readily available to citizens in Venezuela. By choosing dollars for personal savings, they are essentially putting their faith along with their fate in the hands of an external system of control which can, in fact, devalue those dollars in a blink. After what they have experienced with the bolivar, you would think they would not go into papery dollars without a heavy side dose of reservation.

And in fact, the Venezuelan government itself recently took steps to liquidate [from memory] the two-thirds ($20 billion of $30 bn) of its central bank's international reserve assets (e.g., bonds) that were in U.S. dollar denominations in favor of other reserve deposits to be held at the Bank for International Settlements.

One can only wonder at this point to what extent Venezuela has taken a cue from Argentina's recent public declarations in which its central bank had acquired gold and indicated that acquiring more could be in the works as prudent to protect their portfolio against inflation and international financial crises.

Even as an mere outsider looking in, an individual should be able to follow in those increasingly obvious central bankers' footsteps.

Call USAGOLD-Centennial today to initiate your own gold reserve program. TOLL FREE: 1-800-869-5115

R.
TownCrier
(10/14/2005; 12:04:24 MDT - Msg ID: 136882)
This weekend's G-20 meeting ... begins Saturday
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20051014/ap_on_bi_ge/china_currency(AP) October 14, 2005

...The currency issue is on the agenda of the summit of finance officials of the Group of Twenty industrial and developing nations, hosted by China for the first time.

During the G-20 meeting, Snow and other U.S. officials may well face criticism of the United States' massive trade and budget deficits.

The G-20 nations account for 90 percent of global gross domestic product, 80 percent of global trade and two-thirds of the world's population.

They include the Group of Seven industrialized nations as well as the European Union, China, Argentina, Brazil, Russia, India, Australia, Mexico, the Republic of Korea, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa and Turkey. Top representatives of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank will also attend the meeting, being held at a resort outside Beijing.

The aim of the meeting is to discuss imbalances in development, limits to the international economic system and other broad issues, the official Xinhua News Agency cited Chinese Finance Minister Jin Renqing as saying.

^---(from url)---^

As the U.S. presses the Chinese to float the yuan, it can't be ignored that the alternative, the market solution, will entail a significant structural shift as central banks would curtail their asymmetric acquistions of U.S. dollars and of any other foreign denominated currency and bonds. Leaving neutral gold to fill the void on a domestically denominated MTM basis. And to ensure the reliability of the valuation benchmark, the ambiguous fluff of paper gold must be blown away to remove that superflous avenue of systemic risk and uncertainty from having any future effect on the pricing of physical gold.

Don't expect to witness any big change over the coming weekend, but know we're well on the road nonetheless.

R.
Goldilox
(10/14/2005; 12:45:13 MDT - Msg ID: 136883)
Venezuelan article
@ TC,

As the author called the US$ "hard currency", it is likely tht gold is beneath his RADAR. Certainly not a good preference for "transactions" in a closed FIAT society, I would bet "mum's the word" from gold savers in Venezuela.

If they face jail for unregistered FX transaction, they're not likely to flash their shiney in the face of their own greedy banksters.

By the way, try transfering $10K+ (barely enough for a cheap motorcycle) in the US without the benefit of banksters, DHS, and IRS sticking their noses in your nether regions. That can earn a state-paid vacation, as well.

It can still be done here, but it's gonna get tougher, as TPTB wanna track every movement, claiming their inability to distinguish mice from rats as impetus.
Topaz
(10/14/2005; 13:22:03 MDT - Msg ID: 136884)
errata ...and The Silver Bullet.
http://www.crbtrader.com/data/default.asp?page=quote&sym=SIZ5&mode=dG'dome
Please excuse my directing comments to 'lox in your stead ...and the double post, the explanation was but a mere Egg in the grand Pavlova of inter-market relationships but one to keep an eye on imo.
(do you "guys" know Pav? ...if not, I truly pity you ..a dessert made in Heaven ..yum!)

As mentioned yesterday, Silver is REALLY worthy of interest here.
The OI update this morning (here) will reveal lots as to what drove Ag up 20 cents when in Full-blown Paper mode ie: during the trading period after London closed.

Delivery Notice today saw the current 4 letter word get clobbered for 2 Contracts.
Yesterdays 300 went through the turnstyles on 300 vol so all current month action is being delivered as Metal.

Is the R-word short a truckload of Silver?

Vol-OI may tell us ...we Watch ...and Wait!
TownCrier
(10/14/2005; 13:33:59 MDT - Msg ID: 136885)
Gold pricing suffers on Refco worries
(key excerpts from two Reutes articles)

NEW YORK, Oct 14 (Reuters) - Gold in New York tumbled 1 percent Friday morning, hit by fund and speculator selling, with traders liquidating holdings as oil fell and fears grew over trouble at commodities brokerage Refco LLC, dealers said.

"The sell-off is coming from a lot of different places. Energy prices are lower, higher interest rates are hurting gold, and to some extent the uncertainty of Refco and all the funds," said George Gero, senior vice president at Legg Mason Wood Walker.

NYMEX has been closely monitoring the activities of Refco LLC, a clearing member on both its NYMEX and COMEX divisions, it said late on Thursday. It added that all customer positions and funds held by Refco LLC were segregated from firm assets in compliance with Commodity Futures Trading Commission regulations and NYMEX rules.

The exchange said it has restricted the withdrawal of any capital, including any excess capital, by Refco LLC, without NYMEX's prior approval.

"The financial surveillance and risk management staff at NYMEX has been and is still in continuous contact with the firm regarding its clearing member obligations at the Exchange," NYMEX said.

Refco has halted activities at its Refco Capital Markets unit, a fixed-income, equities and foreign exchange brokerage, for 15 days and frozen its accounts.

Benchmark gold futures reached their highest level since January 1988 on Wednesday, at $483.10 an ounce, before prices slipped into a minor tailspin...

Gero said it was tough to see where futures might uncover good chart support because some traders had become motivated by the stream of news about Refco and were not thinking about technical indicators at the moment.

Refco Inc. struggled to survive Friday as it began shutting down another unit and its bonds plunged further, fueling fears of a bankruptcy filing.

Refco's former chief executive, Phillip Bennett, was charged on Wednesday with securities fraud amid accusations he hid bad debts to dupe investors ahead of the company's public offering, over hundreds of millions of dollars owed to the company by an entity he controlled.

^-----------^

If, indeed, having a gold futures CONTRACT is not as reliable as having physical gold, then it stands to reason that, someday in a more perfect world, the price of physical gold would not be determined by the inferior paper gold markets as it currently is today.

But as it now is, be sure to use downdraft of diminished faith in paper gold to your advantage in acquiring the metal at cheaper prices. A day may soon come when the pricing of these two fundamentally separate markets will decouple. You will want to be a holder of the physical METAL on such a day.

R.
TownCrier
(10/14/2005; 13:45:49 MDT - Msg ID: 136886)
Refco unnerves European investors
http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh35481_2005-10-14_13-30-35_l14261323_newsmlLONDON, Oct 14 (Reuters) - European investors are increasingly nervous about the risks from the Refco scandal despite assurances from bourse operators that the influential firm and the markets it trades in are operating normally.

Equity, foreign exchange, commodity and bond investors were paring back long positions on Friday to guard against the risk of a liquidity squeeze a day after U.S.-listed Refco froze client accounts at its Refco Capital Markets unit for 15 days, following the laying of fraud charges against former CEO Phillip Bennett.

"When you have a situation in the manner of Refco the sensible thing to do is to reduce your risk exposure in case you do get hit with a margin call," said Mark Tinker, a director at Execution Stockbrokers.

Bets on rising securities prices are often taken using derivatives -- a market in which Refco is a major global player -- which require investors to put up only a percentage of the total cost of the trade, known as the margin.

The charges against Refco's former CEO on Wednesday have highlighted the importance of counterparty risk, and the crucial role of reputation, in the often opaque derivatives industry, fuelling fears of a possible collapse of the firm and a liquidity squeeze.

Risks of contagion are a particular concern for the $1.9-trillion-a-day foreign exchange market where transactions are largely made on an over-the-counter basis.

...hedge funds pared back long positions, preparing for possible margin calls in case of a liquidity squeeze which could trigger a downward price spiral.

"If they don't have the margin available they could be in trouble," a trader at a U.S.-based bank said.

Hedge funds and other investors are nervous, but they expect any problems at Refco to be contained, believing that the authorities would not want panic to take hold and wreck financial stability.

"Some people are talking about another possible LTCM (Long Term Capital Management) all over again," the trader said. "It's nowhere near as bad ... Leverage is a fraction of what it was then."

^----(from url)---^

This is a prime example why focus (and pricing) of gold especially should be on the underlying physical asset rather than an associated margin-based derivative market that is contingent upon the performance of various counterparties.

This has the very real POTENTIAL to spiral quickly out of order.

Call USAGOLD-Centennial today and lock in your stake of METAL. Because you never know what the weekend will bring.

R.
Goldilox
(10/14/2005; 14:14:11 MDT - Msg ID: 136887)
Pavlova
@ Topaz,

A dessert to "ring your bell" or to make one salivate?

Pavlov's cheesecake.
TownCrier
(10/14/2005; 14:49:09 MDT - Msg ID: 136888)
"The markets have been orderly..." and "... not as bad as LTCM..."
Earlier in the week I misplaced a pencil.

In that event, there were no officials or related parties rushing forward to proclaim to the media that the markets remained orderly, or that the situation was nowhere near as bad as Long Term Capital Management.

Last month the Labor Day holiday put the mail behind schedule, and my rent payment arrived one day later than it was supposed to.

Again, in that event, there were no officials stepping in to assure the media that the markets remained orderly, or that the situation was nowhere near as bad as LTCM.

When the sovereign nation of Venezuela announced in the past week that it had dishorded $20 billion in U.S. securities to diversify in other assets at the Bank for International Settlements, once again, there was no evidence or need of reassuring clamour among officials that markets were behaving orderly and that things weren't as bad as LTCM.

The fact that officials are indeed out front proclaiming that markets are still orderly and that the situation isn't as dire as LTCM was, it begs one question:

"In the grand spectrum of things, from a lost pencil all the way to something much much worse, HOW BAD, REALLY, IS THIS REFCO THING?"

Bottom line: When markets are indeed orderly, as they usually are day in and day out, officials don't normally bother saying so. And when the newspaper delivery boy misses your porch, traders don't usually bother to dismiss it publicly as "not nearly as bad as LTCM".

R.
Topaz
(10/14/2005; 15:07:04 MDT - Msg ID: 136889)
TC, this part amused.
http://www.freebuck.com/bonds.shtml...and to some extent the uncertainty of Refco "and all the funds," said George Gero, senior vice president at Legg Mason Wood Walker.

Check out the 2Yr $CJCB ...Woooo!
TownCrier
(10/14/2005; 15:15:27 MDT - Msg ID: 136890)
Topaz, the uncertainty of "Refco and ALL the funds..."
Ales to you, fine sir.

R.
USAGOLD Daily Market Report
(10/14/2005; 15:19:47 MDT - Msg ID: 136891)
Page Update!
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Daily Gold Market Report has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.

FRIDAY Market Excerpts

Gold futures contracts fall, Refco sparks worry

October 14 (from MarketWatch) -- Gold futures prices fell Friday to mark a three-session loss -- down almost $6 for the week, but still up about $18 over the month-ago close.

"The gold market has been taking two steps forward and one back ever since bottoming in 2001," said Peter Grandich, editor of the Grandich Letter.

Given that, "the correction underway should come as no surprise and be considered healthy for those of us who have long targeted $500 an ounce."

Gold for December delivery traded as low as $468.30 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange, its lowest since Oct. 5. It closed down $2 at $471.80.

...the greenback is "showing some serious signs of fatigue," said Dale Doelling, chief market technician at Trends In Commodities.

U.S. consumer inflation surged at the fastest pace in more than 25 years in September, rising a bigger-than-expected 1.2%, the Labor Department said Friday.

For now, the gold "market is just biding its time and, if the dollar does start to unravel, then I'll be looking for gold to quickly move to $500," Doelling said.

[see prior TownCrier posts for overview of Refco-related elements]

---(click url for full news, 24-hr newswire, market quotes)---
R Powell
(10/14/2005; 15:46:58 MDT - Msg ID: 136892)
Something strange happened......
In the silver pits today. I'm just now home from work + have no idea what happened. Can anyone enlighten me? It's not everyday you see silver rally $0.22 off her lows in the last hour or so of trading, especially when other metals are all down..?? Is there ETF news?
Even tho I have to work tomorrow, it's still.....
Happy weekend to one + all..!
rich
Matthew
(10/14/2005; 16:14:14 MDT - Msg ID: 136893)
Silver
http://www.freemarketnews.com/WorldNews.asp?nid=1330This might be of interest....
TownCrier
(10/14/2005; 16:21:09 MDT - Msg ID: 136894)
Refco shuts down main business
http://today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=businessNews&storyID=2005-10-14T190307Z_01_MAR350680_RTRUKOC_0_US-FINANCIAL-REFCO.xmlNEW YORK (Reuters) - Refco Inc. began shutting down its main business on Friday, as fraud charges against the former chief executive threatened to topple the largest U.S. independent commodities brokerage.

New York-based Refco's bond prices plunged to levels often associated with insolvency while trading in shares of the recently newly-listed company was on an indefinite suspension after the stock plunged 72 percent this week.

"I don't see how they're going to survive this," said Michael Greenberger, a professor at the University of Maryland School of Law in Baltimore, who previously worked at the Commodities Futures Trading Commission.

In the latest development in the deepening crisis, Refco Securities LLC, a broker-dealer that accounts for more than half of Refco's gross revenues, said it was unwinding clients' and its own positions.

When a brokerage unwinds positions, it means it is no longer taking new clients and is essentially going out of business.

On Thursday Refco Capital Markets , a prime broker that served the hedge fund community, halted activities and froze all its accounts, saying it did not have enough cash to go on.

"The customers and counterparties have apparently lost confidence in the creditworthiness of the company," said Tom Foley, an analyst at Standard & Poor's.

Share trading in Refco, which only went public two months ago at $22 a share, was suspended on Thursday with the New York Stock Exchange...

^---(from url)---^

Your paper asset is no better than your weakest counterparty in a long daisy-chain of interlinked derivatives.

As a result of lessons learned the hard way, people around the world continue to choose the security of gold coins and bullion as the foundation of their savings. Don't let complacency keep you on the sidelines.

R.
Topaz
(10/14/2005; 16:26:38 MDT - Msg ID: 136895)
G'lox etal
http://www.cuisinedumonde.com/pavlova.htmlG'lox
Do not (repeat) DO NOT Die before sampling a piece of Aussie Pavlova.

Ag Vol-OI shows nothing unusual Friday. Total OI looks to be over 140K ...Monday might show cause though I'm pretty sure it's Refco related.

I feel a song comin' on ...follow the bouncing Ball: -

Rip rip woodchip - turn it into paper
Throw it in the bin, no news today
Nightmare, dreaming - can't you hear the screaming?
Chainsaw, eyesore - more decay.

Lyrics by John Williamson ...who, along with Pavlova, Russel Crowe and Costya Tsuyu are ALL Aussie Icons.

TownCrier
(10/14/2005; 16:28:11 MDT - Msg ID: 136896)
Inflation as consumer prices surge -- biggest monthly gain in 25 years
http://today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=businessNews&storyID=2005-10-14T195912Z_01_SPI445145_RTRUKOC_0_US-ECONOMY-PRICES.xmlWASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. consumer prices soared 1.2 percent last month, the biggest gain in more than 25 years, as hurricanes led to a record surge in energy prices.

The increase in the consumer price index was the largest since March 1980, the Labor Department said.

^---(from url)---^

Bottom line: inflation is becoming the buzz in everybody's ears.

R.
Galearis
(10/14/2005; 16:53:27 MDT - Msg ID: 136897)
@Topaz re silver bullit and Rich P.
Several of us including, my brother, rhody, Nick Laird and I have been watching the gold AND silver developments at COMEX recently. Some, like Ted Butler, do not think the information is useful, and we, to be candid, are still somewhat unsure as to whether this is significant or not. We have been seeing, for silver, over 30 Moz changing ownership last month. And we see a lot of gold changing ownership this month. What we are also seeing is silver still being delivered in the millions of ounces in October, the delivery month for gold. This is not, however, and to my understanding, a delivery month for silver. Nevertheless, substantial silver deliveries are taking place,,,'spilling over,,,,as it were from last month.

I think these deliveries may be quite significant, but I am speculating only here. I have not been watching for years, only months. I do not know if these deliveries are a seasonal norm, or, more significantly events that represent the commercials positioning themselves for what they may consider as some serious runs on metal ahead. From the market action in silver today, it would seem that the price action indicates a lack of interest in shorting this market � and hence a drop in supply of contracts offered. For sure, if this were real worry being expressed, I would expect serious naked shorting to be a thing of the past and an evolutionary step towards a physical market. I hope.

I will attempt to paste the delivery action so far this month and let the readers judge. I would also like some discussion about this delivery action from anyone who has been watching the delivery side longer than we have.

COPPER SILVER GOLD ALUMINUM
������ ������ ���� ��������
ISSUES 0 2 34 0
������������
SO FAR FOR OCTOBER
8 713 10,844 1,075

The top row of numbers represents today's stoppers; the bottom, contracts delivered so far this month. Hope it is legible.

Of course we will all know that this is significant if metal starts to leave the vaults.

Best regards,

G.

@Rich: Not a lot of excitement about this delivery action from the metalbug camp,,,but it may well be that SOMEBODIES out there are watching metal deliveries and feeling it is the time for going after real metal. It could also be the Saudi's entering the market as per the discussion on Midas yesterday. If so, they have maybe been busy buying for going on two months now. Maybe a copper default is in the wind? Something.

I think something is up and has been UP for some time now, and the commercials may be reluctant to go very short silver this time. And you know what that could mean,...
FWIW.
Galearis
(10/14/2005; 18:43:25 MDT - Msg ID: 136898)
Re last post
http://www.nymex.com/media/delivery.pdfOops I forgot to place the url for those delivery figures.
Topaz
(10/14/2005; 18:45:47 MDT - Msg ID: 136899)
Silver delivery.
http://www.nymex.com/media/delivery.pdfI keep a weather eye on Deliveries Galearis and the linked pdf clarifies and confirms your Numbers.
The Sept-Oct roll-over caused 300odd Sept Ag deliveries to be slated in Oct so roughly 400 have got done in Oct ...300 of which appeared on Thur, 2 Fri.
Refco did the 2 but I can't recall who did the 300. Are Refco attempting a liquidation?

Silver ALWAYS runs late, Gold seems to get done a week early ...and if you check the Monthly charts, Comex delivery action is almost exclusively associated with rises/falls in PoG and PoS.
That has been true until OCT!!

I feel Oct is acting as a settlement month for PM's here. With Nov a Non-Delivery Month for BOTH Au and Ag, I'm none too keen on the short-term prospects ...that is unless Refco sends it all wobbily.
R Powell
(10/14/2005; 19:08:12 MDT - Msg ID: 136900)
Galearis
Hello old friend and silver lover. Good to hear from another silverbug.

I believe that the Comex silver stores are only about 100 million ounces or so, of which only about half have been "registered" or ready for sale. The "eligible" category is basically just stored in Comex warehouses and can be moved into "registered" at any time but, until it is, it is not for sale. You know this but maybe not everyone else did...or I may be in error in which case please correct me. In light of this, that 30 million ounce number that you mentioned changed ownership last month is huge. It's probably still stored in Comex, but the ownership change of 60 percent of "for sale" silver in one month catches my attention.

There are recent reports that copper has been in such short supply (strong demand) that more and more of it is being shipped directly from producer to end-user without passing through any exchange warehouses. The price of spot copper has been appreciably higher than ANY futures contract months for some time. The futures have been in reverse contango for a long time. I sometimes think of such a situation as a market denial of the intensity of copper demand. Remaining existing stores of copper are a mere fraction of what they were just a short time ago. I mention this as compared to silver Comex supplies which do not now and have not for years been a stopping point for silver while in route from producer to end-user. This, as we know, is one reason why silver's supply + demand numbers are so frustratingly hard to find. Please keep an eye open as to whether or not the new owners of Comex silver are content to store their metal in the Comex warehouses or are actually moving metal out..!! I've thought for years that the small Comex stores will be the silver of last resort.

I'd not heard of the notion or supposition that the Saudis might once again be interested in silver. There was a group of middle Eastern businessmen somewhat in partnership with Bunker Hunt in the 1979-80 silver price run. The exchange would list any open interest from a foreign based brokerage in the "small speculative" category of the COT. This does not necessarily mean they are small players, by any means, but if they are buying through an out-of-country brokerage, they're listed in the small spec class. I've noted that the percentage long or short, and percentage of total open interest held by the small specs does NOT vary very much no matter what the POS does. It's the large specs and commercials that see-saw back + forth. I believe any technical trading system utilizing "oversold" or "overbought" signals for silver, basically watching the see-saw between the commercials and large specs, may be at big risk. Silver has proven she can stay in "overbought" for a long time while the price continues to make large gains. I have a gut feeling that the large commercials are not shorting silver on a naked basis, it's just too dangerous as silver often does not trade within their "technical" systems' readings. There are safer markets (read easier to trade with technical systems) for them to play. Remember, they play ONLY for paper profits. Many have NO thoughts, opinions, or even basic knowledge of any specific market fundamentals. The big short commercials may be true hedgers. These are, of course, my opinions. I wish I knew for sure!

I still subscribe to the inflation is coming theory. Lord knows the government is good at spending money that does not yet exist. So, like so many, I believe commodities in general still have a long way to go on the bull side, even though some genetic and technological advances have lowered and will lower yet the basic costs of production. This is not the case with metals mined out of mother earth.
So, we watch and wait some more. I'm sure today's silver move has the technical traders totally dumbfounded. I hope it's not just a temporary anomaly. While gold is a larger capitalised market and more closely follow, so it may trade more in keeping with normal bull market expectations, our silver seems often on the verge of the unexpected. Isn't it fun to watch. Fwiw, I still have not been able to find fault in Butler's basic silver supply/demand arguement that should produce much higher prices...perhaps rapidly...but when? Six, seven or eight dollars..for an ounce of silver? A cup of coffee is two bucks! When do we see twenty? For silver that is, not coffee. Btw, for coffee lovers, it keeps a long time in a can. The price of joe may also be destined for much higher...stock up now!
Just one man's opinions
happy weekend!
YGM
(10/14/2005; 20:46:49 MDT - Msg ID: 136901)
R Powell & Galearis
Great posts thanks for sharing those thoughts...YGM
Galearis
(10/15/2005; 09:08:21 MDT - Msg ID: 136902)
@ Rich, Topaz, YGM re silver
Thanks for the great response, Rich. All it takes is receptive ears, hopefully new information and logical speculation,,,which is about all we can do in these markets.

I have my own basket of speculations about the COMEX deliveries, but not the time to type them at present -company cometh for the weekend. As they say, "stay tuned" for tomorrow I have some additional thoughts on this to share.

Best regards and keep the faith, all silverbugs.

G.
Ned
(10/15/2005; 10:47:15 MDT - Msg ID: 136903)
"Don's latest call"
Great audio recap, 34 minutes of Refco, commodities, avian flu, gold, USD

http://www.bmoharrisprivatebanking.com/webcast.asp



Ned
(10/15/2005; 10:47:47 MDT - Msg ID: 136904)
Putting link in correct location...
http://www.bmoharrisprivatebanking.com/webcast.asp
David Linkley
(10/15/2005; 11:01:46 MDT - Msg ID: 136905)
Jim Paulson (Wells Fargo Chief Inv. Strat.) in Barrons 10-17-05
Either another disingenuous interview or the guy really is totally clueless. He expects interest rates to continue to rise (including mortgage rates) but likes retailers and of course tech without mentioning where the consumers are going to get the money to buy these things. He also speaks of the trade deficit improving even though we just a few days ago experienced our third largest ever with no government spending restraints in sight. Paulson is mearly a symptom of the larger issue which is a lack of institutional integrity in all US markets. When stocks finally begin the second leg down of this secular bear in 2006, shills like him will be booed off the stage and he can go somewhere else and work in obscurity. In the meantime yet more innocent sheep are set for another lesson in pimpmanship.
Cavan Man
(10/15/2005; 12:59:53 MDT - Msg ID: 136906)
Mr. Linkley
He'll be working in obscurity with a lot of his clients money.
contrarian
(10/15/2005; 15:04:05 MDT - Msg ID: 136907)
The Scoop on Wall Street
David Linkey--I could not agree more.

This Thu, WSJ had an article "explaining" why the dollar rose most of this year...same tired old blather about rising interest rates.

Real reason: repatriation of US dollars to take advantage of 95% deduction due to the cynically named American Jobs Creation Act Bush signed in Oct 2004, which expires this month. This got in under the radar screen. Even Buffet wasn't in the know, as he lost about a billion this year betting wrongly that the dollar would go down.

See link.

Last gasp of an administration to prevent the dollar slipping to nonexistence. But you will never hear the real reason from Wall Street or the WSJ. They're too busy papering their own pockets.

And another thing, this Refco thing is huge news, and I think could be the straw that breaks the camels back wrt derivatives. When they come out trying to assure the markets, you can be sure it's big. The story still has longer to go.
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(10/15/2005; 15:11:22 MDT - Msg ID: 136908)
A world of gold at your fingertips...
http://www.usagold.com/buy-gold-coins.html

gold -- a global calling card
Druid
(10/15/2005; 16:47:36 MDT - Msg ID: 136910)
Reference Refco...

Druid: I don't know but this situation as it unfolds, in my opinion, is bigger then LTCM's fiasco. Bugs, this is a clearing house for big time traders and clients. Was this ANOTHER way to cap and slow down the gold price? What about oil & Ng prices, were they getting way ahead of themselves? Maybe I'm completely off my rocker, but I think the fuse is lit for "FreeGold". This is about confidence and one of, if not, the biggest clearing houses has just disintegrated before our eyes. I'm sure there is more to come....stay tuned.
TownCrier
(10/15/2005; 16:58:41 MDT - Msg ID: 136911)
Druid, Refco and possible spread of disorderly consequences
Seems that Dubai's market as a price maker could be just what the doctor ordered -- coming on line just in the nick of time (November).

R.
Cavan Man
(10/15/2005; 18:53:25 MDT - Msg ID: 136912)
REFCO
Seems like "all paper burns" in this one. I'd say most pensions are burning also (here in US). AU stands alone and free on encumbrances.

What were Refco assets compared to LTCM?
Topaz
(10/15/2005; 19:44:28 MDT - Msg ID: 136913)
Bond - SnP.
http://www.futuresource.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=SP&o=TYXY&a=M&z=610x300&d=LOW&b=LINE&st=While the Jury is still out on which way the S-Market will head next week ...with all the recent and current "newsworthy" issues (FNMA (remember them?), Delphi, GM?? and Refco for starters) it's hard to be bullish eh?
What we DO need to take on-board is the deteriorating Bond (Corp $DJCB and T's) market in light of SM softness of late.
The Chart shows that, about mid-04 the SnP AND T-Bonds strengthened in tandem, which was a break away from the regular SM up-Bonds down modus.
Liquidity, or Hyper-liquidity was the cause and we are now seeing ...or beginning to see, an unwinding here ie: Bonds are softening as SM falters.

This 1 Buck, 2 Hats problem is really in need of resolution. Will they keep DX in contact with it's Reserve Currency Status or throw caution to the wind to shore up it's Domestic function?
The Days of having your Cake and Eating it are over for Buck imo.
The Invisible Hand
(10/15/2005; 19:49:38 MDT - Msg ID: 136914)
My name is not Bond, James Bond. My name is Refco.
Snips from the end of the world in this Sunday morning's British press:

http://observer.guardian.co.uk/business/story/0,6903,1592954,00.html
Is a new disaster hiding in Refco's hedge?
Hedge funds are out of control - will they strangle the world's finances?
The headline in the Guardian said it all: 'World's hedge funds face crisis as Refco suspends trading'. Underlying the stories was the worry that the troubles at a US futures broker few of us had ever heard of could herald the economic meltdown which the doom-mongers have been predicting ever since hedge funds became the masters of the universe.

http://observer.guardian.co.uk/business/story/0,6903,1592936,00.html
Goldman Sachs, CSFB and other US investment banking giants are facing a multimillion-dollar lawsuit from America's leading class-action attorney over their work as flotation advisers to Refco, the derivatives broker on the brink of collapse.

http://news.independent.co.uk/business/news/article319902.ece
It has calculated that a small group of big banks have over $500bn at risk in hedge funds. These are believed to include JP Morgan Chase, Deutsche Bank, UBS and Credit Suisse

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2099-1813695,00.html
Even if we did throw money at the problem [our insane addiction to oil], it's not certain we could fix it. One of the strangest portents of the end of progress is the recent discovery that humans are losing their ability to come up with new ideas.
+
� he has two theories about why this is happening. The first is the "low-hanging fruit" theory: early innovators plucked the easiest-to-reach ideas, so later ones have to struggle to crack the harder problems. Or it may be that the massive accumulation of knowledge means that innovators have to stay in education longer to learn enough to invent something new and, as a result, less of their active life is spent innovating.
+
� if innovation is the engine of economic progress � and almost everybody agrees it is � growth may be coming to an end. Since our entire financial order � interest rates, pension funds, insurance, stock markets � is predicated on growth, the social and economic consequences may be cataclysmic.
+
The evidence is mounting that our two sunny centuries of growth and wealth may end in a new Dark Age in which ignorance will replace knowledge, war will replace peace, sickness will replace health and famine will replace obesity. You don't think so? It's always happened in the past. What makes us so different? Nothing, I'm afraid.

http://observer.guardian.co.uk/uk_news/story/0,6903,1593359,00.html
GPs told: prepare for 14 million flu victims
- Deadly virus enters Europe for the first time
- We are in the dark on epidemic threat, say doctors
goldquest
(10/15/2005; 20:25:26 MDT - Msg ID: 136915)
REFCO
will be a drop in the bucket compared to Fannie Mae, when the whole story emerges on this disaster! Fannie Mae will have no place to go when the "music" stops!
Save the last "Dunce" For Me!
PRITCHO
(10/15/2005; 20:26:57 MDT - Msg ID: 136916)
From Richard Russell - - - -Bonus W/End Comment
http://www.dowtheoryletters.com/DTLOL.nsf

SNIP:
..................................................
The following is from an article entitled, "American Debacle." It was taken from a piece written by Zhigniew Brzezinski, who was National Security Advisor to President Jimmy Carter. You may not like Carter, and you may not like Brzezinski, but these are thoughts worth pondering.

"It should be a source of special concern for thoughtful Americans that even nations known for their traditional affection for Americans have become openly critical of US policy. As a result, large swaths of the world -- including nations in East Asia, Europe and Latin America -- have been quietly exploring ways of shaping regional associations tied less to the notions of transpacific, or transatlantic or hemispheric cooperation with the United States. Geopolitical alienation from America could become a lasting and menacing reality.

"That trend would especially benefit America's historic ill-wishers and future rivals. Sitting on the sidelines and sneering at America's ineptitude are Russia and China -- Russia because it is delighted to see Muslim hostility diverted from itself and towards America, despite its own crimes in Afghanistan and Chechnya, and is eager to entice America into an anti-Islamic alliance: China because it patiently follows the advice of its ancient guru, Sun Tzu, who taught that the best way to win is to let your rival defeat himself.

"In a very real sense, during the last four years the Bush team has dangerously undercut America's seemingly secure perch on top of the global totem pole by transforming a manageable though serious challenge largely of regional origin into an international debacle."

Russell Comment -- I honestly believe the above is the correct view. In four years this administration has succeeded, with the exception of Britain, of turning the whole world against the US.

I receive e-mails from traveling subscribers almost every day. The constant comment is that "foreigners like the American people but dislike, fear or actually hate the US government." They see the US government as the world's bully, an arrogant and untrustworthy collection of war-mongers and loose cannons. Sad to say, that seems to be the story.
The Invisible Hand
(10/15/2005; 22:20:06 MDT - Msg ID: 136917)
Refco-induced Oktoberfesten
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20051015/ap_on_bi_ge/wall___main_2Goldquest,

One should of course distinguish between the trigger and the cause.
Refco could be the former.

SNIP
Investors know October is the stock market's scariest month. But this October finds them even jumpier than usual. The magnitude of the year's calamities � the tsunami, the Pakistan earthquake and Hurricane Katrina � has prompted some to prepare for disasters of almost every stripe.
Druid
(10/15/2005; 22:38:30 MDT - Msg ID: 136918)
UPDATE 1-Refco advisers meet to decide fate of company
http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=mergersNews&storyID=uri:2005-10-16T023844Z_01_N15128827_RTRIDST_0_FINANCIAL-REFCO-UPDATE-1.XML&pageNumber=1∑mit=Snip.

By Michael Flaherty

NEW YORK, Oct 15 (Reuters) - Advisers for brokerage Refco Inc. (RFX.N: Quote, Profile, Research) met on Saturday in an emergency meeting to decide how to save the embattled company that is teetering on the edge of collapse.

The advisers met to discuss what Refco units are salvageable and what units may have to file for bankruptcy, or be dissolved altogether, according to two sources familiar with the matter.

Saving Refco's main futures and commodities trading operation is the major focus, sources said. The company also has a broker-dealer and a prime brokerage unit, which were shut down this week.

The meeting comes less than a week after Refco said it had put CEO Phillip Bennett on leave after discovering that a firm he controlled owed the company $430 million. Refco shares fell 45 percent on Monday, when the news was first announced. Bennett was charged with securities fraud on Wednesday.

Refco shares plummeted on the New York Stock Exchange, where they are currently halted. Pre-market trades on Friday indicated Refco's stock at $7.90, representing a 72 percent plunge from where its shares opened on Monday.

Refco's rapid unraveling reveals how important reputation is is for a securities firm, which depends on client confidence and borrowed money.

Saturday's gathering, sources said, included bankers at Goldman Sachs (GS.N: Quote, Profile, Research), Refco's financial adviser; Board Chairman Scott Schoen of buyout firm Thomas H. Lee Partners, which owns 38 percent of Refco shares; members of the team formed by special adviser Arthur Levitt, the former U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission chairman; Grant Thornton, Refco's auditors; and the various teams of attorneys hired to help the rapidly fading firm.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which regulates Refco's futures operations, said late on Friday it had not asked other brokerage firms to step in and purchase any of Refco's business units.

"The CFTC has not asked any firm, Goldman Sachs or anyone else, to intervene in the situation regarding Refco," said CFTC spokesman David Gary.

"Our agency is closely monitoring developments involving Refco," he said. "We continue to concentrate on our primary obligation of protecting the integrity of the market and the customer funds in Refco." Continued ...


BANKRUPTCY FILING BEFORE MONDAY?

The Saturday meeting followed a separate meeting on Friday held by Refco lenders to determine repayment. Bonds from Refco plummeted 17 cents on the dollar to 23 cents on the dollar on Friday, indicating that bond investors see a bankruptcy filing as highly likely. Friday's lender meeting ended without a firm decision.

Should Refco seek bankruptcy protection for any or all of its units, the company and its advisers are likely to mull whether to file before Monday, when stricter bankruptcy laws go into effect.

An outside buyer scooping up parts of Refco is another possibility. Man Group's (EMG.L: Quote, Profile, Research) brokerage unit, Man Financial, has expressed interest in buying Refco's futures business, according to a source close to the matter, who added that various private equity firms are also showing interest.

Determining the worth of Refco's units is, at this point, nearly impossible, since most of Refco's market value has been wiped out in the last five days. The company has also been losing clients and their money. In addition, the extent of the alleged accounting fraud remains unclear.

Refco also faces mounting class-action lawsuits, which are likely to lead to high litigation costs.

Refco's commodities unit is the largest U.S. independent commodities brokerage. Refco Securities, LLC, which announced it was no longer taking new clients this week, is a broker-dealer that accounts for nearly half of the company's gross revenues.

Refco Capital Markets, a prime broker serving the hedge fund community, halted activities and froze all its accounts on Thursday. (Additional reporting by Tom Doggett in Washington)



Druid: It's the last paragraph that might create some sort of HUGE problem. I'm sure there's some real stiff drinks being poured and consumed this weekend. You're literally talking about not being able to execute trades and having them cleared for a lot of BIG players, not just one firm. Man! I'd love to see the book as to who is long gold, oil & natural gas. Don't let the parrot box fool you, those clowns are making stats and stories up as they go along to try to provide cover and explain the wide price swings in these markets.

The Invisible Hand
(10/16/2005; 01:01:58 MDT - Msg ID: 136919)
I'm not skeert, I am happy
http://select.nytimes.com/gst/tsc.html?URI=http://select.nytimes.com/2005/10/16/business/16gret.html&OP=5fa1f8a9Q2FQ3EXQ2FbQ3EdQ7CyjjdQ3EQ3Aqq,Q3EQ27qQ3EQ27Q3FQ3EboQ7CzsQ2FQ7CQ7CQ3EQ27Q3FQ5ByQ2FdQ22Q2AdJQ5DBUSINESS
REQUIRES SUBSCRIPTION FOR FULL ARICLE
If Refco Isn't Scary, What Is?
Some say that there will be no financial market tremors emanating from Refco Inc., but it seems incomprehensible that a financial domino this big can topple without making a sound

I missed this in London's Sunday Times:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2095-1827492,00.html
SNIP
Refco is a parable for our times. Its business involves broking layers of financial derivatives. But the man in the street would be amazed by the speed with which it collapsed and how a firm based on hundreds of millions of dollars of goodwill is worth nothing if a key member of staff plays foul.
The Invisible Hand
(10/16/2005; 02:56:45 MDT - Msg ID: 136920)
Everything will collapse (still not skeert but happy)
http://www.lemonde.fr/web/article/0,1-0@2-3234,36-699501@51-627654,0.htmlFrance's Le Monde quotes Robert Bushman, a forensic accountant who teaches at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, as saying that what is important today is whether we can still trust "them" (I, The Invisible Hand, suppose he means the hedge funds - Parlez-vous francais?) and as saying that if this is not the case, everything will collapse.

Snip
Si faute de confiance des banques, des clients et de ses contreparties Refco fait faillite, les cons�quences pourraient �tre s�rieuses. Les clients du courtier (entreprises, banques, fonds sp�culatifs) ont des positions �valu�es � pr�s de 5 milliards de dollars sur les march�s � terme de m�taux, de produits agricoles ou de bons du Tr�sor. "Ce qui compte aujourd'hui est de savoir si on peut encore avoir confiance en eux. Si ce n'est pas le cas, tout va s'effondrer", pr�dit Robert Bushman, professeur de comptabilit� � l'universit� de Caroline du Nord.

I can't find this in English. However, here's the Associated Press referring today to Bushman, but this doesn't contain the statement attributed by Le Monde to Bushman
http://www.journalnow.com/servlet/Satellite?pagename=WSJ%2FMGArticle%2FWSJ_BasicArticle&c=MGArticle&cid=1128767566801&path=!business!article&s=1037645507703
Sunday, October 16, 2005
A Fast Fall: Refco was flying high; now investors have flown
THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
SNIP
This isn't just a story of a chief executive who has done wrong. It's about a complete breakdown in corporate behavior that allowed the mishandling of the company's finances to go on even as legions of bankers, lawyers and accountants pored over the books ahead of Refco's successful August IPO.

Omnia cadunt morituri moriuntur. (Everything collapses and the mortals will die.)
The Invisible Hand
(10/16/2005; 03:55:13 MDT - Msg ID: 136921)
The Bushman quote
http://chicagobusiness.com/cgi-bin/news.pl?post_date=2005-10-11&id=18080SNIP
"The real interesting story is, do people still trust them, because if they don't their whole balance sheet will collapse," said Robert Bushman, a forensic accounting professor at University of North Carolina in Chapel Hill.
==
looks like some people have to learn English (and/or French).
OZ
(10/16/2005; 04:17:29 MDT - Msg ID: 136922)
Translation Refco
The Invisible Hand (10/16/05; 02:56:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 136920)
I, The Invisible Hand, suppose he means the hedge funds -

OZ says:
He means Refco not the hedge funds; I am French Canadian
Galearis
(10/16/2005; 09:17:45 MDT - Msg ID: 136923)
Silver bullets, Ag deliveries comments, Rhody weighs in.
Nicely said Chris. I passed a request over to my brother to add to my comments about recent delivery activity on the COMEX and since the result is going to gobble some bandwidth I should paste it right it without a preamble. My response is first:

Here is what I think happened during the past three months or so to set up the delivery events that we have seen. As they say, context is everything; but what follows here, of course, is just my opinion of what happened � hopefully a logical presentation and backed up with at least some fact. The first point I would like to make is that the sell-offs by the funds that has occurred (aka fleecing of the brain-dead funds � Ted B.'s lovely expression) has been orchestrated by the commercials with the latter going naked short up to 600 million ounces on the cycle. Up to the present, the commercials have felt safe in doing this because only 1-1/2 to 2 M.o on average was ever stopped for delivery - for years and years - and the remaining paper contracts in that delivery months open interests either cashed out or rolled forward � perhaps with a little encouragement from the COMEX management. The commercials also knew that the money behind the funds is limited and these paper contracts can be sold until exhaustion of the funds resources. The CFTC has ignored basic commodity law in that this much naked shorting cannot be looked upon in any other way but price management to the downside. That's the basic manipulation in the silver market.

The other point, and one of conjecture, I'm afraid, is that the commercials never bothered to control much of the registered silver because only that 1.5 to 2 M.oz mentioned was ever called upon for delivery. Your basic COMEX stockpile as the stockpile of last resort in silver, copper etc. (As we both have noted, the stockpile of last resort is being nibbled at in copper, and silver has much the same physical fundamentals profile.) Perhaps, at a guess they owned perhaps 10% of the registered stocks. This is fine unless the commercials smell a run on the remaining registered silver stocks coming on. If new investors decide to take delivery (the Saudi connection, the PRC) , the metal will probably have to be bought from other holders of silver in the COMEX vaults at a much higher price to make good their obligations on the contracts. We saw in the past were some commercials were caught in this � probably last spring when some 8 M.oz were stopped for delivery,,,'so the writing was on the wall!

The third point, also one of conjecture, refers back to the curious reversal of positions of the commercials and the spec longs two and three months ago. Ted Butler dealt with this in an article wherein he pointed out that the funds had been out-maneuvred into going short and the commercials went long. That was the set up for really sticking it to the funds big time.

Flash forward to the near present delivery month time in September and I think we saw the commercials trumping the game; we saw them take delivery. Big time. Now it was the funds that had to scramble to turn their paper contract obligations into real metal deliveries. To the tune of over 30 M.oz.,,,,and COUNTING still into October (which is not a silver delivery month). That's a large-scale snooker of a lot of metal from the funds. I watched almost all the open interest in September stopping for delivery, with these later figures matching up on a daily basis with declines in the O.I. that month.

The result:

Now when the commercials want to go short, their plays are backed with metal, the risk factor reduced if ANYONE starts their run on the remaining metal. But I did not see how the commercials would feel safe in going short at all at this point as it appears that the first step has been taken toward a physical market. (Note, however, that this is not the case, and the commercials continue to go short and naked - which supports the premis that the COMEX management will allow cashing out of positions and void any delivery obligations should there be a default risk.) If most of the stoppers in December (and into October) for silver turn out to be most of the commercial shorts,,,'some names are recognized, AIG, Refco,,,,even the (Bank of Nova Scotia must have a huge certificate silver short position,,,,)(perhaps), we should not expect a huge exodus of metal from the vaults. My conjecture is that the commercials are only covering their positions for the future, and for them to remove metal from the vaults,,,,even to change it to eligible supplies could possibly initiate a price explosion when people note metal apparently leaving. No, IMO, I think the metal will stay put to delay the game for as long as possible. The metal will leave later,,,,after the management changes the rules.

And finally:
The major stopper of silver in September would seem to have been the Bank of Nova Scotia. This is a foreign based bullion bank and I think the management would have reason to worry that the US system would not be as protective towards their survival as a J.P.Morgan/Chase�

I repeat, this is all just conjecture, and the facts may fit other scenarios.

But:

I think December is going to be really interesting.

I think that when the Silver Users Association came out with their very public opposition to the Barclay's Bank ETF, the cat was surely out of the bag. The silver cupboard is all but bare. The people who need to know, know this and are taking appropriate action,,,on all sides of this game

FWIW and I hope that helps.

Best regards,
G.
**********
Now some comments from Rhody:

That is a reasonable speculation on what may transpire on COMEX. In retrospect, it may be the collapse of Refco that has been driving both gold and silver futures prices and deliveries. Insiders would have known about the Refco mess a month or more ago, and have begun to cover. I think it's a given that COMEX was assured that the silver would remain in stockpiles in exchange for allowing the deliveries to exceed monthly quotas. (Don't these people know that everybody lies in the pm trade?!!!) The total Open Interest (OI) is over 133,000 contracts, the last time I looked. That's 665 Moz of paper silver promises. Registered silver is 60 Moz. Where does COMEX get off allowing people to sell 11 times as much silver as exists for sale. See why this market is rigged? Think about that number. It's about the size of the entire world annual supply of real silver. As far as I can estimate, there are about 130 Moz of silver left in surface stockpiles worldwide. Do you see why the price of silver is so low????? Just one commodity market has sold five times as much silver as exists in the whole world. Then we have London, Hong Kong, Zurich, and Sydney adding to the paper selling. Add to that silver certificate sales, pool accounts, and options on futures (200 times the volume of actual COMEX futures trades) and silver (and gold) are deluged by fake metal sales. London alone sells 1.2 billion ounces of silver each year that it doesn't have.
To get back to your point about commercials taking delivery to hoard metal to continue the futures rigging. This may be true, but note that their naked shorting has risen to an all time high, along with the OI on COMEX. That OI may be pushing 700 Moz by now. That level of selling by the commercials does not suggest a reduction in the level of naked shorting. I think naked shorting is actually rising, but you would expect that if we are about to have a commercial signal failure. Whether we do or don't, the silver market is changing. and that means UP substantially. We could still have a paper silver correction here, but I don't see an extreme 1 to 2 dollar collapse like in the past. Long before we got that low, people would be taking delivery of the rest of comex silver at prices that really are at 5000 year lows. This would happen because there are new buyers in the market, who would also be buying the contracts that the Spec Funds were selling out. These new guys would likely take delivery and the commercials would know it and that would throw them into a covering panic as well. Between now and December (the next delivery month in silver) we will make or break this market.

FWIW, Rhody
********

Obviously, our minds are all but twinned (smile) on this subject.

We are probably looking at the last remaining oportunity for purchasing cheap silver (and gold) right now. As I have said in the past, the silver delivery pattern is seeing an echo with gold.

It pays (off) to keep the faith, yes?

Best regards,

G.


Smeagol
(10/16/2005; 10:41:21 MDT - Msg ID: 136924)
Ach!
Thank you Ssir Galearis, for taking the time to share those extenssive Silver Thoughtses, and also to Ssir Topaz for his unflagging vigilance. Yess, we watches - Silver with one eye and It with the other!

We wonders, if a Comex silver debacle might be the ssignal for "liftoff" in Gold.

...and for those of uss that don't sspeak French, we knows a "fissh" that does (grin), and here is Ssir The Invisible Hand's quote, and translated:


"Si faute de confiance des banques, des clients et de ses contreparties Refco fait faillite, les cons�quences pourraient �tre s�rieuses. Les clients du courtier (entreprises, banques, fonds sp�culatifs) ont des positions �valu�es � pr�s de 5 milliards de dollars sur les march�s � terme de m�taux, de produits agricoles ou de bons du Tr�sor. "Ce qui compte aujourd'hui est de savoir si on peut encore avoir confiance en eux. Si ce n'est pas le cas, tout va s'effondrer", pr�dit Robert Bushman, professeur de comptabilit� � l'universit� de Caroline du Nord."

"If for lack of confidence of the banks, the customers and its Refco counterparts goes bankrupt, the consequences could be serious. The customers of the broker (undertaken, banks, funds speculative) have positions evaluated with nearly 5 billion dollars on the markets in the long term of metals, agricultural produce or Treasury bills. "What account today is to know if one can still rely on them. If it is not the case, all will break down ", predicts Robert Bushman, professor of accountancy at the university of North Carolina."

S.
David Linkley
(10/16/2005; 10:44:32 MDT - Msg ID: 136925)
Beware of linear thinking in the days ahead
It has become common in our Western thought processes to view the future as an extention of our recent past. No where is this more common than in the investment world. Smart money plays on this and benefits accordingly. Since 9-11 many people I converse with increasingly sense all is not well but have yet to change their behaviours. This lack of action will end at some point and could explode at anytime. Financial warnings are everywhere (Refco, GM, Delphi, Ford, FNM, airlines, US deficits, etc.) yet the markets for the most part seem to shrugg it all off. Many investors are awaiting for a return of the bull market in stocks including those professionals who should know better. Jesse Livermore commented after the 1906 San Francisco earthquake when the market refused to fall that it "was exasperating to see the blindness of the street, they did not see it because they did not wish too." With government interventions increasing with each passing crises since the 1987 crash, it's no wonder investors are slower to react than normal. Make no mistake, reality is coming and millions of Americans will pay a severe price. Gold, silver, oil, food, and other essentials could possibly explode in price as never before given the current world liquidity situation. As Black Blade has advised many times on this forum, prepare now. The coming market upheavals will almost certainly look nothing like yesterdays.
contrarian
(10/16/2005; 12:23:32 MDT - Msg ID: 136926)
The future
David Linkley--right again...Futurists are almost always wrong, as they merely extrapolate current trends into the future, and cannot account for events spontaneously appearing out of nowhere.

Nonetheless, what they is interesting food for thought, and at least get on out of the humdrumness of the present. Two futurists of note are Peter Russell ("The Global Brain") and Ray Kurzweil ("The Age of Intelligent Machines")

I do not however, think we are in humdrum times, and do sense major events around the horizon through the end of next year. It should be interesting to see if these gut feelings play out. Given that, certainly gold is a good place to be!
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(10/16/2005; 13:01:25 MDT - Msg ID: 136927)
USAGOLD-Centennial puts a world of gold at your fingertips...
http://www.usagold.com/buy-gold-coins.html

gold -- a global calling card
Topaz
(10/16/2005; 13:35:54 MDT - Msg ID: 136928)
Future(s)
Yes David, I'd concur ..."nearly" right! You said: -
It has become common in our Western thought processes to view the future as an extention of our recent past.

I'd have put it slightly different to-wit: -
It has become common in our Western thought processes to view the present as a redux of our future expectations...and derivatives markets have taken this to the n'th degree.
Over the last couple of years, (with the introduction of round-the-clock Access Trading) Nymex has provided the ground-work for full-scale "control" of the PM's complex via Paper Futures Trading and a look at '05 Ag pricing and the rises and falls in cinc with their delivery month obligations bears witness to this fact.

The July 10 T's Futures debacle highlighted the extent to which this derivatives racket has permeated our "present" and also points to stresses in La-La Land the likes of which "might" become manifest in PM's shortly.

A deflationary "event" whereby the "PRESENT" ie: Cash and PM's vie for King of the Hill, is a given here and the BEST or ONLY position imo is a Voyeuristic profile.

Yes Sir Smee, we DO Watch!

TownCrier
(10/16/2005; 13:37:22 MDT - Msg ID: 136929)
Gold rush on world's largest market amid inflation worries
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_asiapacific_business/view/173724/1/.html16 October 2005, NEW DELHI -- Indian households are on a record gold-buying spree as oil price-driven inflation threatens to wipe out savings from rising incomes in one of the world's fastest-growing economies.

Gold consumption in India, the world's largest market for the precious metal, has shot up by 50 percent in the first half of the year to 508 tonnes, only a little less than the 642 tonnes consumed during the whole of last year...

The price of gold surged to an all-time high of 6,990 rupees per 10 grammes in India this week, though it dropped marginally later.

However, the prices are likely to start climbing once again with the wedding and festival season starting among the population of 1.1 billion...

"There is a new found confidence in gold. Whoever has invested in gold, has made extra money. People are also turning to it as a hedge against the high oil prices," said Jatin Mehta, head of gold trading firm Suraaj.

The income of middle class Indian families has been going up with the economy growing at a robust seven to eight percent, but putting their savings in banks is yielding little as the interest rate of four to five percent is barely on par with the inflation rate.

Traders said the price of gold was likely to rise another five to 10 percent by the year-end as more and more people invest their savings...

^----(excerpts from URl; click link for full article)---^

Again, as I said about gold on Thursday, your typical gold investor has no cause to be characterized among the fringe as 'doom and gloomers'. Although gold is certainly a bulwark of security in tumultuous times, what is often overlooked by novice observers is its propensity to perform even better under times of widespread social and economic prosperity. India serves well as a case in point. As its economy has improved, gold purchases have been booming, right along with its price on supply and demand fundamentals.

The standard gold owner's motto should be something like "guarded from calamity while working toward amity".

The key focus among gold advocates, therefore, should ultimately be to not let the financial community marginalize gold by interfering with the (physical) market price discovery mechanism as has historically been done through introduction and escalation of gold derivative products and lendable unallocated accounts.

R.
Demosthenes
(10/16/2005; 15:56:51 MDT - Msg ID: 136930)
RE: Indian Gold buying
An interesting article about another culture's take on gold. The part that I found most interesting was this:

"I am buying for my daughter's marriage. Gold prices have risen, but they will keep on rising. And one really has no choice but to buy gold when an occasion like marriage is happening in the family," said Deepa Ray, a housewife, visiting a New Delhi jewelery shop.

Seems to demonstrate how ingrained the IDEA of gold is in some people's minds. This is something we tend to forget about in the United States, how other people think. We think that our "advanced" financial markets are both the most efficient and the most stable. We forget that money, whether it is electronic or paper or metal, is only worth what people believe it to be worth. Emperor Napoleon would give his most honored guests Aluminum utensils, while the second-tier guests got the gold and silver. Aluminum was considerd more valuable. Likewise, stocks and bonds are only worth what people believe them to be worth.

Same with the dollar. Subconsciously at least, people here must believe the dollar to be worthless. It is the only way to explain the rabid consumption. Why trade something worthwhile for junk at WalMart? Why else do people accept large debt to buy a house? Why will banks give them the money to do it? They are playing "Hot Potato", hoping not to be left holding the currency when the music stops.
Clink!
(10/16/2005; 18:11:51 MDT - Msg ID: 136931)
The danger of linear thinking
A number of times over the past weeks I have been reminded of the story of one of Isaac Asimov's greatest works - the Foundation Trilogy. (For the purists, he wrote a fourth and fifth book thirty years later, but the spark was, sadly, no longer there). I won't go into the plot here, but essentially it deals with exactly this problem - you can calculate what SHOULD happen to your heart's content, but that doesn't mean that things are going to happen that way.

I would also like to inform the Forum that the mythical Murphy's Law is no myth - indeed, as a practicing engineer I plan for it ! You can dress it up in fancy terms like the ten sigma event or whatever, but when you push a system even close to it's limits, what used to be inconsequential noise becomes the critical factor which bursts the bubble. Whether it's a Refco, or a failing levy, the S will hit the ventilation when it is least expected, and unplanned for.

C!
Flaccus
(10/16/2005; 19:21:20 MDT - Msg ID: 136932)
Heads up
http://www.hurricaneadvisories.com/Hurricane Wilma. . .

Hope it misses. Keep an eye out. Track map has it moving toward Lousiana/Texas.
TownCrier
(10/16/2005; 19:34:50 MDT - Msg ID: 136933)
Dollar �could plunge by 30%�
http://www.irishexaminer.com/pport/web/business/Full_Story/did-sgS3ThenhDVossgDQQ5wn3uAIg.asp17 OCT 05

Ireland Inc must prepare for a massive fall in the value of the US dollar against the euro which could see the US currency fall by 30% or more.

This was the stark warning issued by Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) economist Shane Garrett at the Dublin Economic Workshop 28th annual economic policy conference...

...However, it is impossible to even guess about the timing of the depreciation, given that the currency's fall had been prophesised for several years...

He said any rebalancing of global external positions will free up some of the capital funds being absorbed by the US economy.

^---(from url)----^

And on that final note, not only might foreign direct investment inflows find other, non-U.S., destinations, but it is also reasonable to expect that there will be a heightened sense of risk-aversion that will increase the channel of investment flows toward the stability of simple golden wealth, especially as its price appreciation continues to outperform the yields on the various currencies.

R.
Flaccus
(10/16/2005; 19:35:10 MDT - Msg ID: 136934)
Going "deep" on Refco. . .Bennett's hidden life and frailties of Man
Bennett's hidden life and frailties of Man http://observer.guardian.co.uk/business/story/0,6903,1592955,00.htmlLeave to a British newspaper to dig below the surface
Flaccus
(10/16/2005; 19:36:53 MDT - Msg ID: 136935)
Shall we try it again
http://observer.guardian.co.uk/business/story/0,6903,1592955,00.htmlLeave it to a British newspaper to dig "deep" on Refco
Flaccus
(10/16/2005; 19:41:32 MDT - Msg ID: 136936)
If you think that was good. . .
http://observer.guardian.co.uk/business/story/0,6903,1592954,00.htmlHere's the follow-up. I seem to remember MK ranting along these lines some time ago.
mikal
(10/17/2005; 01:47:38 MDT - Msg ID: 136937)
Gold previews
http://today.reuters.co.uk/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=reutersEdge&storyID=2005-10-14T082404Z_01_NOA430142_RTRUKOC_0_ANALYSIS-GOLD.xml Gold Gains Kudos as Alternative to Major Currencies - Jamie McGeever - Reuters
White Rose
(10/17/2005; 07:04:38 MDT - Msg ID: 136938)
Spike dog is barking at the corpse of Refco
Up $5.50. I don't think I really need coffee this morning. That has my attention.
White Rose
(10/17/2005; 07:16:13 MDT - Msg ID: 136939)
Bill Murphy says we was contacted by a golden "deep throat"
Here is the key quote:

"what was sent to GATA today was confidential. ... The essense is that the illegal gold/silver leasing scams are coming to an end. The authorities are apprised that gold and silver have been leased out in an illegal manner and those bullion banks doing the leasing do not have the gold and silver to back it up."

This implies that you can lease gold/silver from a bullion bank and get a piece of paper. Perhaps many are wondering the value of that piece of paper.

Things could get interesting. Any comments from anyone who know more about this?
mikal
(10/17/2005; 10:52:53 MDT - Msg ID: 136940)
More price pressures throughout world's economies
http://news.ft.com/cms/s/139f2436-3ef6-11da-932f-00000e2511c8.htmlOil Gains on Fresh US Storm Concerns - FT - October 17, 2005
Excerpt: "Tropical storm Wilma, the 21st named storm this year, formed from a depression in the Caribbean and could move into the oil-rich Gulf of Mexico by the end of the week, the US National Hurricane Center said on its website.
Vulnerable oil platforms and refineries along the Gulf of Mexico have already battled an assault from two big hurricanes, and oil refineries along the US gulf coast are still shut from previous hurricanes.
The strike in France at a facility owned by Total and persistent attacks on Iraq's oil infrastructure has also added upward pressure on oil prices."
Upward price pressure was apparent before Katrina and Rita and now the third hurricane which may simply exacerbate existing deficiencies. Cushions such as European exports, demand reduction and stockpiles are temporary palliatives.
ge
(10/17/2005; 11:05:18 MDT - Msg ID: 136941)
Waiting for the Petrodollars to Trickle Down
http://www.daneshjoo.org/publishers/currentnews/article_3262.shtmlA NY Times article quoted by an Iranian site.

"...The petrodollar stash is enormous. According to estimates by the International Monetary Fund, oil export revenues of Middle Eastern countries will reach nearly $400 billion this year..."

Where shall these petrodollars flow to?
ge
(10/17/2005; 13:38:33 MDT - Msg ID: 136942)
Henry Kissinger meets Putin in Moscow
http://www.indiadaily.com/editorial/1597.asp"... But as far as strategic interests are concerned, Russia and America will follow their own path of strategic initiatives, which is giving rise to new arms race and a sort of contemporary version on "Cold War"...."
ge
(10/17/2005; 13:44:53 MDT - Msg ID: 136943)
Gazprom Announces Russia-U.S. Energy Symposium
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/051012/ukw014.html?.v=26"Today, Gazprom and its export subsidiary Gazpromexport announced that they are hosting a Russia-U.S. Energy Symposium on October 25 in Houston, Texas."
al Sark Azim
(10/17/2005; 14:50:42 MDT - Msg ID: 136944)
136939: "illegal leasing scams coming to an end"
White Rose
Thankyou, this is big big news, yeh?

Noone ever before saw this coming, yeh? Big big news.

Now you get something you wanted. Maybe the Saints want a little more for the world? Next, gold = money, yeh? 'Legal' leasing is OK with you, yeh?

Put you right back at square one. Same cycle.

Greed and folly begin where wisdom end. Can you not go one step too far each time around? Find yourself Another way to escape the mindless cycle.
R Powell
(10/17/2005; 14:55:26 MDT - Msg ID: 136945)
Where is everyone...?
POG was up nicely today...$4.80. The price is rising steadily with occasional, healthy small retractions...overall, a strong and orderly bull market. Yet there are very few in attendance here today, at least so far. Where are we?

Maybe the days of dollar up, gold down and vice-versa are now gone too. I'd guess that relationship still exists, but other forces are now stronger, perhaps the oldest force of all, supply and demand as demand has been reported as greater than that of years' past. Supply is not increasing appreciably. Copper has again reversed a sharp but quick retraction. Copper supplies are not keeping up with demand and the market is still in reverse contango, perhaps so because the market players simply refuse to believe that, if supply + demand stay constant, then there simply will not be enough copper for all those who want it. The price will have to rise enough to ration what does exist to those who most need it (and pay the most!) until production can be increased enough to provide enough supply. This will take some time! Are gold and sister silver destined to become similar markets? Will either or both enter a backwardation price (or reverse contango) state? Reports from India indicate that a higher POG has NOT reduced demand. Also, just my opinion here, higher precious metals' prices will not decrease demand but increase it. Supply for silver, baring any more disclosure of previously unknown stores, can not be quickly increased. Nor can gold supply without dishoarding from those who now hold it. Who will now sell?

Galearis, thanks for the thoughts. Thank Rhody too. Please keep watching those deliveries for us. I'll not argue that there isn't much more paper trading than there is physical silver, but do still think (just opinion) that this paper game does not trump supply + demand. Remember, for every contract sold, there is one bought, and vice-versa. The number of players on either side are not equal, but total open interest is the number of contracts either bought OR sold and bought always equals sold in total. Perhaps our assumptions of ongoing silver deficits is 100% correct but the market simply will not recognise a shortage potential as long as there is available physical metal (from whatever source) to meet demand. Again, maybe copper is a good example of what is to come with silver..? Copper prices did not start upward on a serious basis until the market saw the existing storage numbers start to fall bigtime. But a physical shortage of silver will shock the market much more than copper was shocked, mainly because the supplies of copper are easily monitored. Gold may be a strong, healthy steed, orderly and within the technicians expectations. Silver may show us an explosive market. I certainly hope (and think) so, but, hey, what do I know? I've thought as much for many years and the POS has only doubled. I've much more greed to satisfy than a mere doubling over many years can quench. How about another double during 2006? Now that would make me smile! ((;>)
rich
R Powell
(10/17/2005; 15:25:15 MDT - Msg ID: 136946)
Further thoughts on paper games
There is more silver presently sold (although much has been sold for future delivery) than exists in the warehouses. I refer here to Comex trading only, not any OTC market.

But this also means there has been more bought than exists. The amount sold always equals the amount bought. If this situation of more sold than exists means that the shorts are trying to "manipulate" the price of silver, does it also not stand to reason that the longs are also trying to "manipulate" the POS? If one can not or should not sell what does not yet exist, then one also can not or should not buy what does not yet exist, no?

Also, if the exchange were to limit the number of contracts (5,000 ounces per) available to equal the amount stored in Comex warehouses, then once that number was reached, no one would be able to buy. Selling would be limited to only those who had previously bought which is exactly the tactic the Exchange instituted to bankrupt Bunker Hunt + the middle eastern buyers in 1980. It's called a liquidation only market. If anything close to this were to happen then I'd be the one crying fowl play...market manipulation! Think also of how little capital ($$$) it would take to buy all the available silver or gold or whatever under such idiotic market rules? Now think again what manipulation means!!Let our market remain free to operate according to the invisible hand of supply + demand. In that absence, any market will fluxuate on the whims of speculative sentiment, but should remain open + free to trade until supply and demand once again determine which direction prices should go. Only with such free markets can individual enterprise (whether hard work, innovation, or speculative risktaking) be justly rewarded. Without the incentive of reward, progress + prosperity for all is severely hindered. Communist Russia learned this lesson the hard way.

If one sells what does not yet exist, that person is then commited to produce at a given future date OR buy back (offset the sale). This is nothing new nor anything evil. It is the markets' means of including speculative monies to provide liquidity so that the markets can function efficiently which benefits everyone.

Sorry to once again dispute the always loved theory that the gold and silver markets are totally controled by some "they" or "cabal" or evil short sellers. I'm open to responses, fire away.
rich
USAGOLD Daily Market Report
(10/17/2005; 16:07:26 MDT - Msg ID: 136947)
Page Update!
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Daily Gold Market Report has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.

MONDAY Market Excerpts

Gold gains nearly $5

October 17 (from MarketWatch, DowJones) -- Gold futures climbed by nearly $5 an ounce Monday as a rally in oil fueled concerns about inflation.

"There is threat of escalating energy," said one trader. "You have the threat of inflation. What better hedge against inflation than gold?"

"As long as the market sees the U.S. economy maintaining positive growth and the energy complex manages to provide some type of spark on the inflation front, we suspect that gold prices will continue to rise toward the $500 level," said Nell Sloane, an analyst at NSFutures.com.

Oil prices climbed to start the trading week, with Tropical Storm Wilma in the Caribbean presenting a potential threat to energy production out of the Gulf of Mexico.

Against this backdrop, the COMEX December gold contract closed at $476.60 an ounce, up $4.80.

"Barring any significant rally in the dollar, the gold market looks to be building a nice platform from which it can rally to the next level," said Dale Doelling, chief market technician at Trends In Commodities.

Precious metals "will continue to frustrate those who believe that it's simply impossible for prices to move much higher," Doelling said, adding that this "could be the week that dispels any doubts about these powerful trends that ... could continue for years to come."

Bill O'Neill, one of the principals with LOGIC Advisors, also said buying re-emerged Monday morning after recent consolidation lower.

"I don't think there is any change in the basic picture for gold," said O'Neill.

"The market has been anticipating we're probably going to have additional inflation down the line. It's still attracting flight-to-safety buying as well.

"There is uncertainty in a lot of areas, which is why gold has been steadily moving up. It's not just one event on one day.

"There is a psychology in the market that is persistent."

---(see url for full news, 24-hr newswire, market quotes)---
TownCrier
(10/17/2005; 16:20:06 MDT - Msg ID: 136948)
Weekend G20 meeting reflects shift in world economic balance
http://www.thedailystar.net/2005/10/18/d51018051857.htm(excerpts) -- President Hu Jintao opened the event by urging the world to "respect the diversity of development models"...

...The finance ministers and central bank chiefs meeting outside Beijing agreed on a "roadmap" to reform the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank, to give more say to booming newcomers from Asia and elsewhere.

...The G20 was founded in 1999 to enhance dialogue between the Group of Seven industrialised nations and population giants such as China, India and Brazil as well as other key economies, including oil-rich Saudi Arabia and Russia.

..."So far the G20 is still a talk shop and no major decisions have been made," said Andy Xie, Morgan Stanley's Asia Pacific chief economist. "But I think eventually the G20 could replace the G7 in importance. The biggest problems in the world relate to the diverging interests between big developing and developed countries."

The G20 responded to criticism that world financial bodies such as the Bretton Woods Institutions (BWIs) -- the IMF and World Bank -- still reflect the economic power balance of the time they were founded over 60 years ago.

"The world economy has evolved considerably since the founding of the BWIs, with fast growth in many emerging markets and deepened integration in industrialized countries," they said in a final statement.

Australian Treasurer Peter Costello said there had been a "recognition that, as the world economy has changed, so too these organisations must change."

The emergence of the new economic powers would have a growing global impact by increasing competition for resources, he said.

^---(from article at url)---^

Will be a big challenge to achieve meaningful reform of institutions with as much inertia as the BWIs. A more effective approach might be to pursue necessary improvements through fresher avenues, and leave the BWIs to put it upon themselves to either strive to catch up or else die a dinosaur's death.

R.
Ned
(10/17/2005; 17:58:04 MDT - Msg ID: 136949)
I've been watching the aftermath of Katrina and Rita......
http://p088.ezboard.com/fdownstreamventurespetroleummarkets.showMessageRange?topicID=14990.topic☆t=21&stop=37.....big time "shut-in" (lost) production of oil and NG in the GOM area. Oil still 66% "shut-in" and NG still 55% "shut-in".

I may have my numbers totally mixed up but I can't see how this kind of production loss can not affect the winters demand.

Check link for more.


RAP
(10/17/2005; 18:40:49 MDT - Msg ID: 136950)
Ned: more detailed summary
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/special/eia1_katrina.htmlThis site gives all the info on the hurricans.
TownCrier
(10/17/2005; 19:03:36 MDT - Msg ID: 136951)
Rich, my response to your Further thoughts on paper games
Although your support of free market futures and derivatives of gold are admirably consistent with good Feanorian economic principles and perspectives, the harsh reality is that they simply do not equate to good plain hobbit sense.

That is to say, you have taken a supportive position behind theory that is all well and good from a perspective under an immortal trading timeframe, however, the same alignment can be (often is) cruelly out-of-step with the shorter, albeit much more important timeframe of the single human lifespans under which each of us mere mortals must fend.

Baring any such Gondolinian besiegements or Numenorean cataclysms, for all practical purposes a corporation is an eternal, immortal entity. And while generally most things created by the minds and hands of man are meant to be of service to man, here we find you supporting a perverse arrangement of affairs that can distinctly subjugate man and his potential fate to powers available only to these immortal corporations -- these enfants terribles.

Cutting to the quick, you directly state and/or indirectly imply that you feel it to be acceptable for entities to sell that which does not exist, that to do so "is nothing new or evil" (harmful), all built upon the gloriously grand proviso that it is all set right in the future as all such artful selling must someday become actual production or offset buying as needed to neatly and scientifically settle accounts somewhere before the end of all things.

From the immortal corporate perspective that you harbor, it all comes around in the end, just as our solar system eventually comes full circle around the galaxy. But doesn't it bother you in the slightest that a man may live out all his days and never once see the light of the Golden Reckoning?

You seem to be implying that it was fine for our Oldfathers in ancient days in Athens and Rome and Mesopotamia to enjoy the full weight and trade value of gold property, however, you seem to say, it is also now conscionably acceptable for immortal banking and other corporate institutions to have subsequently availed themselves of the aforementioned derivative trading principles by which much "gold" which doesn't actually exist has been sold many times over, thus driving down its trade value for year upon year. Does it truly sit well with you, even upon deeper reflection, that for many generations of men's lives actual gold owners have never once seen the trade value of their diluted gold returned to its former ancient full-bodied power, and furthermore, if your view manages to hold political sway, that gold's full value may not yet be seen or known again among mankind for perhaps many more generations after even we, too, expire of our short wretched lives?

I think maybe this is not the light sort of subject you should want to reply to without first giving it at least a night to sleep on it.

R.
David Linkley
(10/17/2005; 19:17:42 MDT - Msg ID: 136952)
Let the year end (IBM) games begin
Today after the close IBM reported lower revenues and muttered something about a challenging couple of upcoming quarters but other than that, business is great. The Reuters headlines announced that they "beaten the street" and the stock rose approximately $1.30 in after hours trading. Not that I'm skeptical of a tech company that has had revenue growth of approximately 3% per year since 1993, however nobody is better than IBM at fabricating numbers. On Wall Street the phrases of oversold, poor sentiment, great values, low inflation, cyclical upturn, and even upside momentum were heard over the weekend and today from the usual suspects. We may or may not get a November - December rally to end the year but let this serve as a warning that danger is everywhere. The lies, deceit and deception grow louder everyday. The government is not allowing the markets to correct and as we all know this is a very necessary part of capitalism. We are now at the mercy of a system that is no longer based on objective fundamentals but when some entity might decide to pull the liquidity plug. The New World Order is about to receive a golden wake up call.
TheJuniorMiner
(10/17/2005; 19:22:36 MDT - Msg ID: 136953)
natural gas
Ned.

I'm not sure how a loss of production can affect demand but it sure has affected the industries ability to store gas for the winter. This happened last year too. Perhaps we are relying on the gulf a bit too much as the savior for our nat gas production.

Somewhere around 60% of homes in the US are heated by nat gas and I'm not sure how much more conservation can be had as I felt last winter homeowners cut back due to a large increase in prices last year vs 2003. I had my thermostat down �bout as far as I could go and still had several months of high heating bills.

Too many natural gas fired electrical plants have been built during the last 10 years and this is changing demand patterns.

The question now is do we have a cold winter in the Northeast and Midwest or not? We are drilling 30% more wells than two years ago and still production hasn't gone up at all. Wells are getting smaller, decline rates faster, big oils aren't looking and we are relying on medium and small companies to make up the difference. I suspect that the cost of heating a home this winter is going to be harder on the consumer that $3.00 gasoline has been. We are in the mist of a natural gas crisis in this country and only cool summers and warm winters can solve the problem.

Glenn
Ned
(10/17/2005; 19:51:20 MDT - Msg ID: 136954)
TheJuniorMiner
Glenn,

Sorry about the poorly phrased question. That was my 2nd 'poorest' attempt ever to ask about the energy crisis, all others being tied for 1st!

I've had a couple alias at USA for a number of years and occasionally I like to throw out a 'red herring' to see who may bite at a modestly off-topic suggestion.

That is in no way, shape or form implying that I was 'fishing' for your opinion specifically of the "shut-in" question.

On the contrary, you responded with an opinion much aligned with mine and I thank you immensely.

I am wholeheartedly concerned with NG production both now and forward and this might be more alarming than the topic of gold....gosh dang.

Take care.

Ned
(10/17/2005; 20:04:35 MDT - Msg ID: 136955)
RAP
Excellent link...now I have what I have seen !!

Bewildering numbers, yes?
TownCrier
(10/17/2005; 20:34:18 MDT - Msg ID: 136956)
Remarks by Chairman Alan Greenspan -- Energy
http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2005/20051017/default.htmTokyo, Japan
October 17, 2005

(excerpts)

...How did we arrive at a state in which the balance of world energy supply and demand could be so fragile that weather, not to mention individual acts of sabotage or local insurrection, could have a significant impact on economic growth?

...The history of the world petroleum industry is one of a rapidly growing industry seeking the stable prices that have been seen by producers as essential to the expansion of the market. In the early twentieth century, pricing power was firmly in the hands of Americans, predominately John D. Rockefeller and Standard Oil.

Reportedly appalled by the volatility of crude oil prices that stunted the growth of oil markets in the early years of the petroleum industry, Rockefeller had endeavored with some success to stabilize those prices by gaining control by the turn of the century of nine-tenths of U.S. refining capacity.

But even after the breakup of the Standard Oil monopoly in 1911, pricing power remained with the United States--first with the U.S. oil companies and later with the Texas Railroad Commission, which raised limits on output to suppress price spikes and cut output to prevent sharp price declines.

Indeed, as late as 1952, crude oil production in the United States (44 percent of which was in Texas) still accounted for more than half of the world total. Excess Texas crude oil capacity was notably brought to bear to contain the impact on oil prices of the nationalization of Iranian oil a half-century ago. Again, excess American oil was released to the market to counter the price pressures induced by the Suez crisis of 1956 and the Arab-Israeli War of 1967.

Of course, concentrated control in the hands of a few producers over any resource can pose potential problems.

In the event, that historical role ended in 1971, when excess crude oil capacity in the United States was finally absorbed by rising world demand. At that point, the marginal pricing of oil, which for so long had been under the control of international oil companies, predominantly American, abruptly shifted to a few large Middle East producers and to greater market forces than those that they and the other members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) could contain.

To capitalize on their newly acquired pricing power, many producing nations, especially in the Middle East, nationalized their oil companies....

...The further surge in oil prices that accompanied the Iranian Revolution in 1979 eventually drove up prices to $39 per barrel by February 1981 ($75 per barrel in today's prices).

...Moreover, at that time, prices were expected to go still higher. For example, the U.S. Department of Energy in 1979 had projections showing real oil prices reaching nearly $60 per barrel by 1995--the equivalent of more than $120 in today's prices.

The failure of oil prices to rise as projected in the late 1970s is a testament to the power of markets and the technologies they foster. [wink wink nudge nudge]

Such long-term price stability has eroded noticeably over the past five years....

The experience of the past fifty years--and indeed much longer than that--affirms that market forces play a key role in conserving scarce energy resources, directing those resources to their most highly valued uses. However, the availability of adequate productive capacity will also be driven by nonmarket influences and by other policy considerations.

To be sure, energy issues present policymakers with difficult tradeoffs to consider. The concentration of oil reserves in politically volatile areas of the world is an ongoing concern. But that concern and others, one hopes, will be addressed in a manner that, to the greatest extent possible, does not distort or stifle the meaningful functioning of our markets. Barring political impediments to the operation of markets, the same price signals that are so critical for balancing energy supply and demand in the short run also signal profit opportunities...

^---(full speech at url)---^

Central banker: money AND oil expert?

R.
R Powell
(10/17/2005; 21:23:56 MDT - Msg ID: 136957)
Towncrier // some disjointed thoughts here, ...
Hello + goodevening. Thanks for the thoughts. I thought I'd get a response!

You have me at a disadvantage with your reference to "Feanorian" economics. "Feanorian" is not in my edition of Webster's dictionary + I do not know what it refers to.

However, I do understand the references about time. You mention such as "settle accounts somewhere before the end of all things" and you also refer (while refering to what else? gold leasing) to time in a galactic mode. Do you believe gold leasing is immortal? Perhaps OTC shorting can be simply rolled forward for a time but such economics would require an ever growing cash margin if done in any normal leveraged exchange. Please remember that I opened by stating ..."There is more silver presently sold (although much has been sold for future delivery) than exists in the warehouses. I refer here to Comex trading only, not any OTC market." Again, I refer to Comex trading. Once more, I reference legitimate (tho you may not think so) metals exchange markets ONLY. I never referenced leasing at all! The issue was shortselling...NOT leasing. As for the end of days before settlement.....
Exchange settlements are due monthly with precious metals. I'll admit that we'd all like to have more months in our lives than most of us are given but their total number does add up to many more than a (one) once in a lifetime.


As for rolling shorts...Anyone or entity that shorts and stubbornly holds short while prices rise quickly has to respond to ever growing margin calls. Leverage is a two sided sword. Even hugely financed entities do not tolerate exponentially growing losses. If they did, they would quickly no longer be hugely financed. And again, original margin plus loses must be on deposit to hold such underwater positions. Huge financial forces do not hold such loses on their books for any length of time....much less the time measured by lifetimes. Again, I refer to legitimate commodity exchanges, not mythical "cabals" with unlimited funds and no regard for monetary loses. Off market, most metals buyers around the world who may have no understanding of any exchanges, still buy + sell physical metals. Their decision whether or not to buy and/or sell is based, I believe, as it should be, on the laws of supply and demand, perhaps tempered by the usual battle between whether to save the hard earned currency or trade it for metal. Survival necessities are probably purchased first, then metal.


Do you advocate the position that short selling should be stopped? Many do. With many financial markets, trading liquidity (and then all trading) would simply disappear with such a restriction although short sellers are often blamed for market woes. They have often played the role of scapegoat. Many ethnic groups have suffered the same fate. Whenever disaster strikes, whatever it's cause, the masses require a explanation + whippingboy. Drumhead courts are such. "Hang the shortsellers". Anyway, I believe this outlawing of the short sale, if initiated would immediately lead to a market corner as there would be no or very little silver left to buy. The "liquidation only"
market order would drain the market of the ability to trade other than perhaps on the scale of a fleamarket. As for gold, it would be interesting indeed to see if any would remain available to the common man. How do you outlaw selling more than exists without outlawing buying more than exists? What do you buy after it's all been bought, and under such market conditions, wouldn't it all be bought immediately? Good question...I don't know. This needs more thought + study on my part as I've no experience or study of any market that does not trade. Maybe gold would become a totally controled market with enforced limited availability like diamonds or metal might exchange hands illegally like drugs..? Again, I don't know, I'm just vocalizing thoughts. I imagine the price would increase to unheard of levels but market availability would be limited to perhaps only a very tiny portion of the mankind. Perhaps not one in a thousand, one in 10,000? One in a million? How does a market trade without speculation? Why do markets now include speculation that allows buying silver that does not exist or selling the same? I'm reminded here of the story of a truckload of just paid construction workers walking into a bar after working all day in 100 degree plus heat. They enter and the barkeep says, sorry boys, but I've only one cold beer left. Any bids on it? Now, what's that beer worth and do you suppose the barkeep really only has one left? He has a cornered market for sure. Any other thoughts on this???
rich
Goldendome
(10/17/2005; 22:22:56 MDT - Msg ID: 136958)
Spectators bubble gets popped--for now.

One bubble just got popped in Houston. Anyone else see that 3 run, home run that Albert Pujols hit for St. Louis with 2 out in the top of the ninth while trailing by 2 runs?

Wow! A laser shot that was bouncing off the stadium facade above the spectators in left field, so fast that they didn't have time to say, "Oh, no!" before it left the park.
Topaz
(10/18/2005; 00:58:35 MDT - Msg ID: 136959)
alt Gold.
http://www.futuresource.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=GC&o=100/DX&a=D&z=610x300&d=LOW&b=LINE&st=We saw a return to divergence yesterday ...which was good, and right on queue as Buck was threatening to bring down the House.
It's (Buck) looking frisky again here but lower Oil will dampen the negativity.

Randy, how could you possibly NOT love those Futures Freakshows.
bw (next door) has a link to the Great Potato Default!

...seriously though, they should partition Gold and Silver for no other reason than they're representitative of a Wealth asset and numeraire to such a broad spectrum of Global inhabitants. Frankly it's pathetic to witness these Markets trading in volumes that defy any logical connection to reality ...even to we of "the western mindset"

Imo, if they don't move to Cash/Physical settlement in Au and Ag VERY shortly, the Market will oblige ...in Spades!
The Invisible Hand
(10/18/2005; 01:16:39 MDT - Msg ID: 136960)
Venezuela's "Demonstration Effect"
http://www.venezuelanalysis.com/articles.php?artno=1579SNIP
Were Venezuela to decide to switch partially to the euro�a move that would make economic sense should the dollar continue to depreciate and the European Union get its house back in order�other OPEC and Latin American nations would very likely follow suit.
TownCrier
(10/18/2005; 02:12:56 MDT - Msg ID: 136961)
Rich, you should have slept on it
As it was, your reply came through as primarily defensive (and unnecessarily expansive (yes, I fully understand that side of the equation)) of your pre-existing position. What I was hoping for was to refocus your field of view, from the sterile mathematical landscape that you and the immortals inhabit, in such a way that you might be able to zoom in on a certain area enough to pick out the dusty Trail (FOA's Gold Trail, that is) and indeed to further perceive how and why it is that we are all, whether you like it or not, well on our way along that road.

I believe that having provided your premature response, your brain will consider the matter resolved, dwelling on it no further and thus short-circuiting what might have been opportunity for a rare glimmer of enlightenment in this frustratingly esoteric matter of markets and money.

C'est la vie.

Randy
TownCrier
(10/18/2005; 02:53:25 MDT - Msg ID: 136962)
Treasury chief softens pressure on China to reform its currency
http://www.rutlandherald.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20051018/NEWS/51017010/1011/BUSINESSBEIJING � U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow struck a conciliatory tone Monday on China's sluggish moves toward floating its currency...

Snow met Monday with central bank chief Zhou Xiaochuan and Finance Minister Jin Renqing. He said they outlined a series of financial and currency reforms that they're designing so that eventually the yuan's value can be adjusted.

"Moving to a truly flexible exchange rate requires a lot of preparatory steps, and China is seriously engaged in taking those preparatory steps," Snow said.

"A road map, I think, would be too grandiose a characterization," Snow said in response to a question at a news conference. "We do have, as the Chinese do, a long list of things that are being worked on."

Snow said Zhou and Jin gave him a rundown of the financial mechanisms they're installing to allow companies to hedge against currency risks before moving further on a flexible exchange rate.

"We recognize that it's going to take some time � to put in place these devices to allow businesses to deal with currency risks," Snow said, adding that mechanisms "like forwards, options, derivatives" can serve as shock absorbers during financial turmoil.

^---(from url)---^

Repeat: Mechanisms like forwards, options, derivatives can serve as shock absorbers.

Meaning, "reality absorbers".

To put an appropriately meaningful translation on this, shock absorbing is to attenuate and dampen life's myriad little reality checks until, given large enough levels of "shock/reality absorption" over time, all that you are left feeling about the market is a false sense of comfortable numbness. Until the wheels fall off. BAM!

It just might be deemed a better alternative, as we might see at some fateful point along the way, to have let all of those little reality checks along the way to work their aggregate effect so as to bring about a more appropriate speed and course selection.

R.
The Invisible Hand
(10/18/2005; 03:39:21 MDT - Msg ID: 136963)
Time to make History - Ask Him
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/talking_point/4350254.stmSNIP
What do you want to ask Venezuelan President, Hugo Chavez?
Mr Chavez has been criticised by the United States for being Fidel Castro's ally and promoting left-wing causes in Latin America.
Since coming to power in 1998 he has split the country between those who say he has become increasingly autocratic, and those who say he speaks for the poor.
Venezuela is the world's fifth largest oil producer and a key member of Opec, supplying 15% of US oil imports.
Is President Chavez the voice of the poor? Or is he an autocrat? Is he a hero or a villain? What do you think of his attitude to the USA? Send your questions to President Hugo Chavez using the form on the right.
Belgian
(10/18/2005; 03:47:37 MDT - Msg ID: 136964)
@ Sir Towncrier
C'est la vie...China (central planning state) has " LIBERALIZED " its gold market...BEFORE...even starting to liberalize its yuan-currency market !!!

Snow & Span know very well WHY !

Anddddd...Rato seems of the idea that "...whatever it necessary takes..." >>> the oilprice-pressure must come down (be neutralized).

Indeed Sir...w're "well along the road" !

Thank you.
Topaz
(10/18/2005; 03:51:13 MDT - Msg ID: 136965)
Futures.

ref: Mr Snows comments "like forwards, options, derivatives"

I read the other day that Hedge Funds account for something like 60% of trading volume on one of the Bourses ...FTSE I think ...Wow! This would be incidental to their "like forwards, options, derivatives" operations and puts into perspective what (or the depth of the problem) we are dealing with.

Market Syncopation ie: those regular little curve-balls that would have seen Silver PoP to $25 in July, T-Bond Prices drop 10 ticks in Aug ...and DX spike to 94 in Sept, are being neutralised.

The Monthly Market Fare is becoming a Barn-dance ...when it should be a Tango.
Knallgold
(10/18/2005; 05:10:29 MDT - Msg ID: 136966)
Now thats an interesting piece
http://www.businessday.co.za/articles/mining.aspx?ID=BD4A103326Loud and clear the

"St. LOUIS - In a recent policy statement, the Silver Users Association (SUA) urged the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to stop Barclays from creating a silver backed Exchange Traded Fund.

"The Silver Users Association opposes the creation of a silver ETF because of the concerns that >>>> doing so will require the holding of physical silver be held in allocated accounts, thus removing large amounts of silver from the market. <<<< By doing so, the ETF will cause a shortage of silver in the marketplace. If this happens, it will ultimately be the economy that suffers due to the negative impact taking large amounts of silver out of the market will have on industry," the statement said...."
OvS
(10/18/2005; 06:46:38 MDT - Msg ID: 136967)
Hugo Chavez
Invisible Manu,
IF you want to help the poor
you better be an autocrat too;
Otherwise, the middle and lofty
classes will grab "your family
jewels". Ouch. C'est la vie.OvS
PH in LA
(10/18/2005; 10:09:42 MDT - Msg ID: 136968)
Consumer prices: Europe vs. US
I am presently in Spain and notice some differences in consumer prices as compared to similar consumer items back home in the US and as compared to similar differences on past trips.

For years, gasoline prices were a horror story whenever we arrived in Spain. With the price of gas going through the roof in California, it has been costing �$50.00 to fill the tank of the family car. This morning, in Spain, we spent �50.00 Euros to fill the tank of the smaller European car. So it feels like the gap is definitely shrinking on this comparison.

The real eye-opener, though, here in Spain, is the cost of food in the supermarket. For years, things were very similarly priced. But now, for the first time in memory, everything is very much cheaper here in Spain as compared to California. Incredibly much cheaper. This gives the impression, big time, of price inflation back in California. (And yes, I know, according to the government figures, blah, blah... there is no price inflation... blah, blah, blah... according to the same clowns who are bringing democracy to the Middle East... etc.)

Just one traveller's impression. Not sure exactly what it all means for gold, either, but another sign of change, for sure!
R Powell
(10/18/2005; 10:09:54 MDT - Msg ID: 136969)
Towncrier
Thanks again for your view.
And yes, I hold a rather pragmatic rather than esoteric viewpoint of markets. Expanding upon or extrapolating my statements beyond exactly what was said (as you say, in an attempt to enlarge my perception) just leads to confusion with me responding that "that's not what I said" and you stating "but maybe that's what you should think about". Do you wonder why my response sounded defensive? We gain nothing in such discourse.

Attempting to understand what is rather than what might/could or ought to be has proven enough of a challenge. I'm trying to master the functioning mechanics of markets and gain a basic understanding of the forces moving our economy. This alone is more than any one person can hope to achieve (though I've gained much knowledge here, thanks!) so I'll leave the speculation of what might be to others. Yours is a noble cause and effecting change for the better, if possible, is also admirable but, again, I leave that to others and continue to hopefully provide some balance of opinion here.

We have been through this discussion before without coming to any resolution. I fear we are at that point again. I merely sought to explain how Comex works (in response to what I saw as incorrect information presented) and why short selling is an essential part of the market (imo, of course). Idealism is admirable but there is a danger that enthusiasm in its pursuit can blind one to the reality of what does now exist.
Keep up the fine work!
rich


Galearis
(10/18/2005; 10:53:20 MDT - Msg ID: 136970)
@ Rich re silver bullet thread
http://www.lbma.org.uk/clearing_charts.htmFirst, I would like to apologize for naming you �Chris� the other day. I sometimes email Chris Powell and there seems to have been a glitchy transference thingy that has happened. I just remembered doing this yesterday. Sorry.

I do not know the answer to the paper market conundrum � especially in precious metals. That they are prone to be manipulated/price controlled is not necessarily the fault of that particular price finding practice, but one of illegal activities being allowed on an ever-increasing scale. This does create confusions of misinformation from virtually all publishing pundits on the silver market subject. The basis for the confusions is always that the silver market cannot distinguish a paper contract promise from a physical one. That "lots of supply" hitting the market statement that one hears all the time from market interpreters. Rhody stated the same thing when he mentioned the paper production of the other futures markets operating on the planet. If you look at the LBMA web site on daily silver transfers you will see that every day the exchange transfers ownership of about 125 M.oz daily for a total of approximately .8 billion dollars. That's daily! (And hopefully it is a typo!) That's a lot of paper silver to be confused about. The commercial shorts on the COMEX would seem to have sold some 665 M.oz of metal this cycle. That too is a LOT of silver and that is naked shorting, big time. But apparently dwarfed by what goes on in London. (The latter is not futures paper, of course, but the transfers of ownership of silver is still seen as supply.) Down the road (right now?) in New York they will offer even more "supply" in order to panic the funds to sell out. "Capping" of the spot price is the other part of the manipulation that does NOT (necessarily) involve a sale,,,,but is a price manipulation (nevertheless). So I do not see how this paper game does NOT trump physical supply and demand influences. Now that's just a simplified view of what is afoot in the sale of paper silver,,,and I don't think I will get into what I think goes on in the broker side of the "management". Or the blinkering affect of the charting culture.

I have no trouble with legitimate short sales. I have a great deal of trouble with the naked short variety - especially at these absurd levels involving most of the world's annual silver production many times over worldwide! Again it should be emphasized that the market cannot distinguish paper silver from real silver and hence HAS trumped supply and demand. Proof? The silver market has been in deficit off and on for 50 years and continuously for the past 17 � and to echo Ted Butler once more,,,,this is proof of a managed price finding mechanism. That's a trump in my view.

This has been going on for so long now, that most of the pundits would seem to have forgotten what is normal. Wait, let me rephrase that: when an absurdity has been the norm for so long, I suppose this situation must be the predictable result.

The REAL silver supply is likely under 200 Moz by now (India has about 55 Moz)and we have silver under $8. When the culture of the futures market has been this deformed, one is inclined to call the futures market the corruption, not that it has been corrupted.

Best regards,

G.

Cometose
(10/18/2005; 11:32:48 MDT - Msg ID: 136971)
PPI
Last week , I snatched a post by someone on K I believe who had mentioned that he had a buddy (worth in the millions) who had spoken with him on the market indexes recently and said that he should get rid of everything in his portfolio besides ......gold and silver mining stocks and energy related issues...........

Today's ppi tells an AUDIBLE TALE related to the SMOKE coming off the crest of yonder hill in our future....and spinning our way

I have a feeling ........that when this stuff gets out in the open and begins to hurt AMERICANS on a broad path that the press and the justice system are going to use this occasion to appease the PEOPLE at a NATIONAL WEENIE ROAST AND BARBEQUE........

Add to that BILL MURPHY"S latest ......and it would appear that GOLD WILL BOUYantly face these troubling times , perhaps more than expected.....
Goldilox
(10/18/2005; 11:33:20 MDT - Msg ID: 136972)
Private interest could create more gold funds
http://today.reuters.com/news/newsArticleSearch.aspx?storyID=202498+18-Oct-2005+RTRS&srch=goldsnip:

By Nick Trevethan

LONDON (Reuters) - The five gold-backed investment funds already traded around the world could be the tip of the iceberg if investors allocate more of their funds to the metal, an official at the World Gold Council said on Tuesday.

"We are just starting to see a transition," Katharine Pulvermacher, head of asset allocation research at the World Gold Council, said.

Private banks had been in gold for a while, she said, but now long-term, stable and mature investors who were not covered by the private banking sector were starting to emerge.

"We are seeing the tip of the iceberg," she said on the sidelines of the African Mining Investment conference in London.

Exchange-traded gold funds (ETFs), which offer shares in a bar of gold and can be traded on a stock exchange, have amassed some 280 tonnes of gold in the last 2-1/2 years, she said.

-Goldilox

The Big Boyz will do everything they can to keep gold from proliferating into smaller hands - especially selling "shares" of their stash from which no one will ever get to "withdraw".
Goldilox
(10/18/2005; 12:12:56 MDT - Msg ID: 136973)
Inner City Powder Kegs Simmering
http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercurynews/news/breaking_news/12930620.htmsnip:

TOLEDO, Ohio - A feud between neighbors - one white, one black - over a dented car and kids trampling on a yard simmered all summer, eventually touching off a riot that has shaken this blue-collar city.

The violence that erupted Saturday over an aborted white supremacist march has moved leaders in a community marred by race riots in the 1960s to once again talk about race relations and re-examine efforts to combat gangs.

"This is something that's going to be with us for a while," Mayor Jack Ford said Monday.

Police say the squabble between the two neighbors was the catalyst for the sidewalk march planned by the National Socialist Movement. The neo-Nazi group said it wanted to draw attention to gangs and crime in the neighborhood, once a thriving Polish community that is now a mix of whites, blacks and Hispanics.

A mob that included rival gang members turned out Saturday to protest the supremacist group. But when the march was called off, they turned their anger toward police who they thought were protecting the neo-Nazis.

Protesters looted and burned a corner bar, smashed the windows of a gas station and tossed rocks and bricks at police. Twelve officers were injured and 114 people were arrested.

-Goldilox

In the 2-3 years of the last major inflafla scare, we watched Detroit and other US cities burn during the "long, hot summer". With the labor and CPI numbers completely skewed by BLS BS, we are seeing the conditions for similar turmoil resurface, albeit perhaps more stealthily.

Sadly, the rising cost of cooking fuel may be abated this summer by public "weenie roasts".
TownCrier
(10/18/2005; 12:14:13 MDT - Msg ID: 136974)
U.S. Sept. PPI up 1.9%, most in 31 years
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?siteid=mktw&guid={0EDD6D6A-62B7-4E0E-BC52-3FFB0D064A03}&dist=bnbWASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - U.S. wholesale prices rose 1.9% in September, the biggest jump in 31 years, the Labor Department said Tuesday.

Price increases were led by a 7.1% rise in wholesale energy prices, the biggest jump in 15 years.

Food prices also soared, rising 1.4% on a record 49% increase in egg prices.

The producer price index for finished goods has increased 6.9% in the past 12 months, the fastest rise in prices in 15 years.

^---(from url)---^

If these numbers have already been favorably massaged by the government, as is roundly alleged, then consider how much higher our current wave of price inflation might actually be....

Fortunately, the pricing subsidy on physical gold remains available to all those who want to take advantage of this incredible offer.

Call USAGOLD-Centennial today for consultation on a diversification strategy that's right for you.

1-800-869-5115

R.
968
(10/18/2005; 12:55:45 MDT - Msg ID: 136975)
Interview with Jean-Claude Trichet, President of the European Central Bank, on 14 October 2005
http://www.ecb.int/press/key/date/2005/html/sp051014.en.htmlInterview with Izvestia

SNIP :

To what extent do you feel that the discussions to the effect that gold is losing its significance as one of the constituent elements of countries� gold and foreign currency reserves are justified?

Gold remains an important element of global monetary reserves. To support this statement, the ECB, together with the 12 national central banks of the euro area and two from outside the area signed the Central Bank Gold Agreement to reiterate our position in this regard. We agreed that gold sales by the signatory institutions will be achieved through a concerted programme of sales over a period of five years, starting on 27 September 2004, just after the end of our previous agreement, with annual sales not exceeding 500 tonnes, as total sales over the five-year period will not exceed 2500 tonnes.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FOA said 5 years ago already that the WA would be the only statement made for 'public consumption' !

It seems that the Russians (just like the Chinese) are also interested in the attitute of the ECB towards gold ! Have they heard something about MTM-rumours ?
Any thoughts Randy, Miner49er, Belgian, others, ... ?
Goldilox
(10/18/2005; 13:19:23 MDT - Msg ID: 136976)
Commodiies vs. stocks
Ron Insana just aired an interesting piece comparing the prices of commodities with their respective stock indices. The one commoditity outperforming its stock index is gold. . . interesting, indeed.
TownCrier
(10/18/2005; 13:28:22 MDT - Msg ID: 136977)
Rich, very good essence... "but maybe that's what you should think about"
To be taken along with your comment, "Attempting to understand what is rather than what might/could or ought to be has proven enough of a challenge."

The very crux of this, in fact the whole point of my engagement, is indeed to lend a hand toward you gaining a better perspective and foundation of understanding solidly and precisely upon the matter concerning "WHAT IS".

As I see it, you are not even brushing the surface of "what is", but rather are bogged down purely in a clinical labroom-esque assessment of the mechanics of the Rules of the Exchange. However, it is becoming ever more apparent that you are doing this completely detached from the all-important context of the real world.

Metaphorically, you busy yourself in your lab measuring gravity by dropping feathers and bowling balls side-by-side within vacuum chambers. You choose to pay no heed to the air we MUST all breathe, preferring the uncomplicated and tidy predictions from your tidy experiments while dismissing an outsider's attempt to point out that feathers and bowling balls don't fall at the same speed from rooftops out here in the real world.

More specifically, you over fixate on Exchange rules and order, and such tight focus leads to a dangerous blindness to the more important social and political context under which those rules exist, sometimes with shoddy application merely as fleeting, notional ideals whose time has outlived its usefulness.

That is to say, if you choose to ignore the realities of the social and political fabric as your primary "WHAT IS", then you really have positioned yourself precariously with precious little real ground to stand on.

The Exchange "Rules" that you study are not the immutable physical and chemical laws of Mother Nature, but rather the interpersonal guidelines of our social and political "WHAT IS". As "WHAT IS" changes, we often change our "Rules"/guidelines.

Please try to remove yourself from the constricting labroom of isolated COMEX futures and see instead the picture that I tried to emphasize yesterday in which the collective of gold derivative products provides a means for us "what is" humans to be subjugated by our very own immortal corporate financial 'enfants terribles'.

Surely you can begin to see and understand that as collective parent reaches levels of strain, rather than endure the breaking point, he will discipline the child and take away the offending toys.

If you need a second input of perspective on this, I can think of none better than to spend a few hours with Nobel Laureate James Buchanan, and concentrate on the principle of the 'relatively absolute absolute' within our social order, and take it as a healthy counterpoint to your dangerous faith or fixation on the premise of the 'absolute absolute' as forming the Rules of the Game.

Randy
Topaz
(10/18/2005; 13:35:04 MDT - Msg ID: 136978)
PPI.
http://www.freebuck.com/today.shtmlFor those with eyes to see, this PPI is another nail in the coffin of the inflation myth.
We finally managed to eke out a Green Bond Day ...the ONLY positive in a sea of red, even POO (thankfully) has come off the boil.

The Baristas, Dog Groomers, Spider Identifiers (eh Gandy) and Metal/Dollar "valuers" of this world can take no comfort whatsoever from these Numbers, as the essentials/discretionary pendulum works its magic against them.

The Sweet-Systemic-Syren call is sounding a bit off-key Today methinks!
Goldilox
(10/18/2005; 13:53:28 MDT - Msg ID: 136979)
Offending Toys
@ TC, Rich,

Your quote:

"Surely you can begin to see and understand that as collective parent reaches levels of strain, rather than endure the breaking point, he will discipline the child and take away the offending toys."

Politically speaking, it remains to see WHICH offendig toys will be confiscated - the paper markets or the commodities themselves.

TPTB seem to worship at the altar of their derivatives, outwardly reviling the "real" basis of those markets. It will be interesting to see how they play out this coming year.
Belgian
(10/18/2005; 13:56:27 MDT - Msg ID: 136980)
@986
Both, China and Russia, have NOW very good reasons to get inspired by the ECB's idea of having one's gold reserves marked to the market as to let the present and future world-gold-market (NOT THE WGC) decide on gold's real "Value" !

Russia wants its rouble to become a currency a part enti�re (convertable) and China will have to open its financial markets, one day.

Whatever the fiat reserve unit that is used in CB intervention...having goldmetal reserves that are marked to market is as monetarily comfortable as one can feel. Basta with the gold standard and viva freegold.

But as you can see on LBMA statistics, the papergold contract volume was on the rise for the past 2 months. Not yet a significant "trend" but an indication that goldprice management needs some more ammunition, for the time being.
Portugal has a deficit of 6% and...still an excess amount of gold in its vaults that can be used for new commitments with the ECB/BIS gold department.

Sir Alan warned China that it must prepare appropiately for eventual shocks in its (chinese) economy. Many also do prepare appropiately for eventual dollar reserve shocks...as we ourselves are prepared for almost everything with our goldcoins firmly in the fist.


Goldilox
(10/18/2005; 14:06:05 MDT - Msg ID: 136981)
"Virginia City" on TCM today
Another classic movie for the "Gold Film Archives" -

Errol Flynn, Miriam Hopkins, Randolph Scott, Alan Hale, and Bogie star in this shoot-em-up about Union spies trying to stop the flow of gold from VC by Confederate sympathizers.
TownCrier
(10/18/2005; 14:13:13 MDT - Msg ID: 136982)
Refco files for bankruptcy, Dubai looms...
http://yahoo.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml;jsessionid=BZ1NUTRX3MUASCRBAE0CFEY?type=businessNews&storyID=9963973NEW YORK (Reuters) - Refco Inc. filed for bankruptcy and agreed to sell its core futures brokerage unit to an investor group for $768 million, a key step to help rescue the embattled commodities and futures brokerage from collapse.

The developments late on Monday followed a week in which customers pulled assets out of the New York-based firm after Chief Executive Phillip Bennett was charged with securities fraud.

Refco agreed to sell its main futures brokerage unit to a group led by private equity fund J.C. Flowers & Co. LLC, which is run by former Goldman Sachs partner Christopher Flowers.

But the sale of the unit is far from sealed, with J.C. Flowers acknowledging there was no assurance a deal would be reached.

...Refco's Capital Markets group, an unregulated business that handles over-the-counter trading of derivatives and other securities, is not mentioned in Monday's press release. The fate of the business, which halted activity and froze accounts last week, remains unclear.

...Dubai Investments, an investment arm of the Dubai government, has hired Blackstone Group to advise it on a potential $1 billion acquisition of the entire company, a source close to the matter said on Tuesday.

^---(from url)---^

Do the math. "Welcome to the 'layer cake', son". Physical gold metal is the unstained icing atop each progressively filthy and insecure layer located below. (A good movie, btw, with a good soundtrack. Plus, its lead player, Daniel Craig, has been tapped as the next James Bond.)

R.
Belgian
(10/18/2005; 14:38:46 MDT - Msg ID: 136983)
@Goldilox
In 1987 (that infamous SM crash year) Ronald Reagan appointed the toy >>> WORKING GROUP ON FINANCIAL MARKETS !
This type of toy was not designed to be confiscated but to disintegrate in time.The PPT has confiscated our wealth !

Goldmetal will NEVER EVER be confiscated again ! on the contrary it will be set free. Simply because the conclusion has been reached that confiscation of the goldprice into an erzatz gold standard is a priori fraudulent.

Freegold will make the "working group" obsolete and leave the "financial markets" exactly for what they are supposed to function correctly. Nothing more and nothing less.
Topaz
(10/18/2005; 14:46:13 MDT - Msg ID: 136984)
The Sheep are getting restless...
http://www.investigatethesec.com/DP131005.htm...and the Shepherds out to lunch.

via Jesse, Thanks!
OvS
(10/18/2005; 14:56:32 MDT - Msg ID: 136985)
Rich, the gutsy one, or, Powell in a nut-shell.
Yes, Rich. We know.
We reap what we sow.
'Til all will blow.
I'm a sometimes trader
and money I did make
but I'm not a greedy raider
I make it and run, for God's sake.
Then I hide for a month or a year
'til I get my spare courage in gear.
Buy some shares after good deliberation
Make a few bucks and resume my hibernation.

In other words: I think I understand
where Powell von Rich is coming from:
IF he is true to his word: He uses the
stock-market to corner a few dollars
which he systematically re-invests in
the physical metals. And what's wrong
with that?

Say, he has a 100,000 dollars, 80,000
of which he can jingle; with 20,000 he
can afford to even go short, let's say
Hecla mining. If the market turns
totally against him, he is more than
hedged with his physical...and in hind-
sight, what a money machine that kind
of shorting this was or could have been
for our Richard (not the poor).
So, Randy, Belgian, etc. in theory it
is true that to acquire and hold the
physical is a prudent way to procede.
But brick and concrete layers need a bit
more to come alive. So let him have his
highs and just perhaps maybe, possibly,
he'll stay put with gold and silver after
it goes to 529 and more (as veteran trader
JESinclair highly recommends).Good luck,
Rich, and carry on 'til....OvS



OvS
(10/18/2005; 15:15:12 MDT - Msg ID: 136986)
Merci, Doktor Belgian
You are a great God-sent,
psychiatrist par exellent.
All us scared little chickens
worry of government lickens,
when the wise sage of yonder
whose saying we savor and ponder
commands: Don't you ever be afraid!
Your government is rational and staid!
It might not leave one Free Man stand
But Free Gold is a shoe-in in your land.
:-) OvS

Belgian
(10/18/2005; 15:15:34 MDT - Msg ID: 136987)
@ OvS
Your theory (and practice)...WAS ...a good (appropiate) one, whilst using it during the past period of the PPT reich ! And certainly, most of us have intuitively been succesfully doing so up until the period of fundamental change in '99 - '01 !

Today, I'm only following you on the second half of the theory >>> goldmetal in one fist and cash in the other !

Topaz post on Refco sheds some light on the dynamics that have evolved since 1987. And bear in mind that the most ugly (criminal) parts of these dynamics will never see daylight. Good luck to you Sir.
TownCrier
(10/18/2005; 15:18:07 MDT - Msg ID: 136988)
OvS, perhaps you misunderstand my intention
Nobody, and I do mean absolutely nobody, nobody needs my personal 'permission' or blessing with regard to the methods with which they individually choose to eke out various flows of income.

In Rich's case I am primarily offering a friendly word of caution -- that he consider the distinct possibility that he has hitched one of his plows to a dying horse that might kick and buck with deadly abandon on its way down.

R.
USAGOLD Daily Market Report
(10/18/2005; 15:31:23 MDT - Msg ID: 136989)
Page Update!
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Daily Gold Market Report has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.

TUESDAY Market Excerpts

Gold slightly lower on Refco-related book squaring

October 18 (from Reuters) -- COMEX December gold futures ended at $474.60, down $2 after dealing from $477 to $472.80.

Gold took a hit in light trading as fund and bank buying earlier ran into trader profit-taking to create a tug-of-war on prices, dealers said.

Additionally, the fund selling last week that was partly based on trouble at Refco left the market wary of further liquidation.

Overall, traders awaited news to help move the market.

"People are just book-squaring, trying to figure out if another shoe is going to drop now that Refco is clearing out. They are still wondering if you're going to have some fund selling," George Gero, vice president at Legg Mason Wood Walker, said.

Refco Inc. filed for bankruptcy and agreed to sell its core futures brokerage unit to an investor group for $768 million, a key step to help rescue the embattled commodities and futures brokerage from collapse.

Business stayed subdued and, technically, gold traded an inside day, meaning the session high and low remained within Monday's trading range.

Traders said gold investment demand picked up in Asia on fears over inflation, natural disasters, and also at the start of Hindu and Muslim holidays, but some jewelers held back from purchases due to high prices.

Global investors are using gold as an alternative asset as shown by the recent strength in gold across a spectrum of currencies.

Bullion hit an 18-year high at $480.25 last week. Those with spare cash often use the hard asset as a form of savings or as a hedge due to uncertainty over the economy.

---(see url for full news, 24-hr newswire, market quotes)---
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(10/18/2005; 15:32:33 MDT - Msg ID: 136990)
FREE Gold Information Packet...
http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html

FREE Info Packet
R Powell
(10/18/2005; 15:44:22 MDT - Msg ID: 136991)
OvS
Hey, thanks for the poem. But, in truth, I trade only commodities derivatives, no stocks at all. And yes, some profit has turned into coins + bars of silver. I wish more had, too much of it was traded poorly and disappeared back from whence it came. But, live continues and perhaps time is all we really have to spend in this life..?
rich
TownCrier
(10/18/2005; 15:45:21 MDT - Msg ID: 136992)
Inflation bugaboo undermines stocks
http://www.journalstar.com/articles/2005/10/18/business/doc43556074e9189221031073.txt(AP) NEW YORK -- Wall Street's chronic fear of inflation sent stocks skidding Tuesday as a sharp jump in wholesale prices overshadowed strong profit reports from several Dow Jones industrials.

Better-than-expected earnings from Johnson & Johnson, IBM Corp. and United Technologies Corp. were overlooked by investors preoccupied by the biggest increase in the Labor Department's Producer Price Index in 15 years. The PPI, which measures prices at the wholesale level, rose 1.9 percent in September on high energy and food costs. With those costs removed, "core" PPI rose 0.3 percent, still higher than the 0.2 percent expected on Wall Street.

"It's not that people are saying, �get me out of this market,� but there's enough headwinds out there that makes it tough to say, �I want to own this market," said Jay Suskind, head trader at Ryan Beck & Co.

With wholesale prices rising, the Fed is likely to continue to raise rates through the end of the year, according to Hugh Johnson, chairman and chief investment officer at Johnson Illington Advisors.

"The fear in the marketplace is that the Fed is going to be seduced by this inflation data into raising rates too high... earnings won't be good in 2006 if rates go too high."

^---(from url)---^

As currency depreciates, and bond yields don't compensate for the same inflation which also rattles stocks, it seems that gold is the only safe haven there is. Call USAGOLD-Centennial this week for a consultation on prudent diversification.

R.
OvS
(10/18/2005; 15:49:13 MDT - Msg ID: 136993)
TC & B
I fully understand TC. You not
only have to warn Rich but give
input for unsuspecting new
knights who might be tempted to
go down the slippery slope of
Powell's rational.
B. I still can see "gambling" a
few dollars but with a fast
reducing stake, so at worst, Rich
will have to forgo inviting you to
have truffled turbot at Restaurant
Le Meurice in Paris. Oh yes, we
all need good luck, especially,
should the "price" of gold go
through the roof...OvS



YGM
(10/18/2005; 16:22:23 MDT - Msg ID: 136994)
When Paper Burns The Next Time Around...
as it has on occasion thru our financial history, it will burn like feather wig in the campfire. The mass of paper financial intstruments today that hold value over the real Gold/Silver/Noble & Base Metal assets themselves is truely staggering to comprehend in this day and age. Make no mistake about it, all paper will either burn outright or rapidly lose value as in the example of Mining Stocks in the latter category. But whereas the derivatives, futures and hedge fund paper will burn to ash and be worthless overnite, the mining shares of those companies that actually own or produce the metals themselves will only smolder a bit before returning to even higher values. The players in the financial world will see to that as the miners shares will be one of the few games left standing for investment. Homestake Mining is the best example I know of after the crash of 1929. "Approximate" memory I have is from $85. in Oct /29 to $35. shortly after and then within 2 yrs over $500. p/sh. Hopefully I'll own just the physical yellow & silver metals then and buy the mining paper back after the firesale. I know that's wishful thinking, but at least if you know how the game goes you have a chance. Always have believed in keeping my dry powder in Physical form, but the stock trading pays the bills and buys the metal security. Most of the paper in public companies is really worth the price of the office furniture and what amount of some useless product the public will buy over the coming year. If or WHEN we have another 1929, alot of what unfolds will be the same as before only intensified MANY times over IMO..YGM
TownCrier
(10/18/2005; 16:35:35 MDT - Msg ID: 136995)
YGM, food for thought
Today you said:

"...miners shares will be one of the few games left standing for investment."

However, yesterday I posted a Greenspan speech, highlighting a key excperpt in which he said:

"...the marginal pricing of oil, which for so long had been under the control of international oil companies, predominantly American, abruptly shifted... To capitalize on their newly acquired pricing power, many producing nations, especially in the Middle East, nationalized their oil companies..."

Is there a lesson to be found there?

Should you so easily and definitively rule out the possibility that Congress could similarly pounce upon these tasty sitting ducks, the miners, at such time that gold might rocket into the limelight as a strategic national asset?

Just pointing out a risk worth pointing out.

R.
David Linkley
(10/18/2005; 16:58:39 MDT - Msg ID: 136996)
Dysfunctional gold trading
As I watch the precious metals stocks trade everyday I can't help but ponder on just how much people have become hooked on instant gratification. We have for the past 20+ months experienced a correction and consolidation period reminicent of the 1976-77 period when gold first climbed to $200 then corrected back to $100. I don't see many people with physical gold trading in and out of the market everyday as they are buying gold for the long term and know that corrections are to be expected. It's the equity crowd that is letting the hedge funds and commercials fleece them alive. If gold is in a supply demand deficit as it has been for more than 10 years then why oblige the wise guys and trade in and out of quality stocks. Selling into a blowoff as I recently did in energy is much different than trading in and out of a small sector every day. Unless there is some new negative information on a quality gold stock, buy and hold will work better than any other type of trading. As Jesse Livermore said, "the big money is made in the big swing," and "it was my sitting tight that made me the most money." I wish for the sake of the equity investors they would take a lesson from many of the buyers of physical on this forum and hold on till the bull is done.
Cavan Man
(10/18/2005; 17:15:22 MDT - Msg ID: 136997)
Hi R Powell
That's a profound thought about time. I like this quote:

"All we have to worry about is what to do with the time that is given to us."

Gandalf the Grey

Good luck..
R Powell
(10/18/2005; 17:57:37 MDT - Msg ID: 136998)
Galearis // silver, of course...
It seems we both share Butler's view of silver fundamentals. I believe we also share the optimism of much higher prices for silver in the not-to-distant future.

While many have confirmed the supply/demand numbers and the ongoing deficit of the same and then concluded that something is amiss in the price mechanism because the prices haven't skyrocketed, I have amended my thoughts to a different conclusion. I believe that any commodity market can distinguish a paper market from a physical one and must do so as ultimately physical demand vs supply determines price. Then why haven't prices risen? They have! They have doubled from just two years ago. I remember $4.01 and then the climb to peak out (in overnight trading) at just over $8.50. Then Kaplan's (uptick) opinion that silver had drawn in too many speculative longs without enough physical demand for product proved correct as the price dropped about $3.00 to bottom out around $5.50. Now, here we are just under $8.00 again (smile).

Why not higher in light of the deficit? There was simply too much supply, whether known or unknown, that filled the deficit. There was 5,000 years of stored supply to draw on even though the uses of silver from the post WW2 period on have actually used silver. Little is now reclaimed other than photographic waste recycling done mostly in China. That silver is then reused in film making. But, the physical market supply has been served, at present prices. Silver is also unique in that it did have thousands of years of accumulation to draw on. The US governments billions of ounces are gone. On the day that Bush signed into law authorization for the Treasury to buy 10 million ounces of silver to continue the commemorative coin minting, the POS dropped seven cents. I had thought, here's proof that the billions of ounces have been consumed but the price on that day dropped. Why, I'd guess because there was still no problem with supply for end-users. There is also no perceived shortage, again a characteristic unique to silver because there NEVER has been one. Nobody is watching for one. Grain traders watch the weather during growing season + weekly export numbers + weekly USDA crop condition estimates + foreign supply like hawks on a daily basis....who watches silver supply but for thee + me? Our numbers are limited to a once a year GFMS silver survey. Even these numbers are very questionable. Who knew that China would fill the deficit last year? Who knows if it was really government held supply that was dishoarded or if it was from other sources, but reported through government agencies as Chinese law requires. Basically, I believe the answer to Butler's question of "why not higher prices?" isn't "manipulation" but rather one of continued (albeit now almost depleted) supply entering the market...the PHYSICAL market. For it is the physical market that will eventually determine any objects price. The paper game continues in ignorance of the coming supply/demand change that we see. When supply becomes short the physical market will trump the paper game...but not until...nor should it! The market price mechanism shows present conditions. Or, it shows the overall consensus of all of the mnies invested in it at the moment. The market allows speculation so that those who can correctly foretell future supply/demand forces can make a profit. So, while Mr. Butler concluded that there is market fraud, I conclude that we are simple early in our analysis. What + how many unknown sources of silver remain to fill next year's deficit?

Yesterday's spot price of copper was $1.93, down from $2.00 of three days ago. The Dec. copper futures settle today was $1.8255. Spot copper has been higher than future month prices for some time now. Copper supply and demand numbers are transparent + easily monitered. How much higher will silver spot be over the paper price once end-users first begin to find physical hard to get? As long as spot stays higher than paper, I believe the copper bull will continue. Jimmy Rogers must be a very happy investor! A little speculation + perhaps some positioning from those who analyse silver as we do doubled the POS. Imagine what a real physical shortage might do to the price? We also know all the reasons why use is inelastic and why production can not be greatly increased in any short timeframe (many years?). The great silver bull has bearly begun and, unlike the speculative run of 1979-80 when stored supply was numbered in the billions of ounces, this next bull will be a real demand driven sight to behold, if.....always an if, we are right in our analysis (number crunching, etc.). One unmistakable sign will be the transfer of physical silver OUT OF Comex warehouses. Will this happen just before, during or after the price starts upward in earnest? I have't a clue but am happy that you are watching for us! Don't forget to sound the alarm when it begins...not ownership change which is somewhat suspect but real delivery. If we're right, won't it be fun to watch! So many, as in copper right now, will deny that it is occuring. Housing + the economy will lower copper demand they say. Perhaps so, locally, but is not copper now a global market? Silver bull? "No", they will cry, "digital cameras have done away with any possible need for silver." I'll watch to see if silver acts then as copper is acting now. Aside: half of all the cement powder (an ingredient in concrete) that was used, on this earth, during 2004 was consumed in China. They may still be a small economy in comparison to many (7) others but they are consuming some items with great gusto. Copper (amoung other things) now, silver + gold to come?
Any other silver thoughts?
rich
Gandalf the White
(10/18/2005; 18:00:42 MDT - Msg ID: 136999)
Thanks, Cavan Man !
I did not remember saying that !
(Memory is SHOT !!)
<;-)
R Powell
(10/18/2005; 18:13:54 MDT - Msg ID: 137000)
Cavan Man
Good to hear from you again, so many seem forever gone? (:>(

Unfortunately, I've done much more worrying already, during my time, than I will have time to do again. Now I must learn to be more selective about that which deserves my anxiety. Age requires compromise with oneself.

I hope you must find other ways to spend your time!
"Don't worry, be happy!"
David Linkley
(10/18/2005; 18:15:35 MDT - Msg ID: 137001)
Asian tenacity
One can only wonder at the recent dollar strength in the face of huge budget and trade deficits, hurricanes, possible White House indictments over the Valerie Plame affair, the coming change of the Fed Chairman, civil war in Iraq, this winters coming energy bills for the consumer, falling confidence polls, layoffs, etc. Why are Japan and China in a race to weaken their respective currencies achieved by selling their own and buying the dollar. Why would anyone want to own so much of such an overpriced, depreciating asset? What "bogeyman" is out there that is so terrible? My friends, the bogeyman is confidence. A dollar crises will suck in the entire globe and destroy much of the confidence in every nation. It's not just a matter of keeping workers employed, its keeping their behaviors confined within the current paper system. As we have learned from the past, once confidence is compromised, the economic wheels can fall off fast. Gold is now rising against all currencies including the dollar. Now matter what the authorities do, short of acting responsibly they can only delay golds rise, not stop it. It matters not what currency is stronger than another at a particular time, they are all going down vs. gold. Only when a global crises finally hits and the game ends will the political will be strong enough to transition back to a sound monetary system. This is why gold is such bargin at these levels, do you have enough?
R Powell
(10/18/2005; 18:16:46 MDT - Msg ID: 137002)
Gandolf
I believe you said those words to Frodo when he was lamenting about his fate as ringbearer. And yes, if believe your hair was still grey then.
Goldendome
(10/18/2005; 18:24:11 MDT - Msg ID: 137003)
@ PH in LA (now Spain)

You cracked me up with your travel cam report from Spain, earlier.

You know today we had a report here in the U.S. regarding PPI inflation advancing 1.9% !!
(I'm not the mathmetician to figure out exactly what that would equate to on a yearly basis, but I think it's pretty dammed high.) But not to worry-- after the volitile food and energy components were stripped out the "core" rate was "only" .3%! Soothing news that makes everyone relax, as nothing really reacted that I could see. Gold--down, Stocks--a shrug, dollar--up, bonds--what us worry-- up!

Well good golly, it appears the volitile food and energy components are what we should be looking at! The volitile components keep going up and staying up! Doesn't this add up to real money at some point in time? The core rate stuff--sofas, spas, coffee makers, fruit jars, stereos, etc. are all things that we can mix and match, or do without! The volitile food and energy sectors ARE the things that everyone has to buy.

PH, keep us posted on your travels. Contrary to what we may hear of Europe on this side of the pond, you seem to have touched down in a land of reality? Here in the U.S. we seem to be in the midst of a wonderful fairy tail, where every dark cloud DOES have a silver lining, and words of seeming discouragement, are immediately turned into positive news.
contrarian
(10/18/2005; 18:24:42 MDT - Msg ID: 137004)
Bizarre Complacency
Even at an investment bank, there is wonder as to how the markets can stay up. The discussion was heard. Still, though, I think that today's selling of millions of shares of Exxon is a foreboding perhaps of bad news tomorrow? Who knows, with the full moon.

There does seem to be a lull or complacency in the air, as if in the waiting period before momentous events, whether earthquake, stock market crash, hurricane, avian flu, etc.--the obsessions with celebrity, gambling, speculation are long overdue a correction it seems. Just look at what's slowly happening to real estate market now, although that's not a sharp boundary kind of event, more like a creeping on you phenomenon.
riding-bitts
(10/18/2005; 18:48:13 MDT - Msg ID: 137005)
PPI & Inflation reports
Tonite KEDT public television nightly business report (a national TV program), broadcast a figure of .3% inflation rate for September in sharp contrast with other reports of a 1.9% rate for September. These translate to annual rates of 3.9% and 22.8% respectivly. Interesting spin machine at work?
Smeagol
(10/18/2005; 19:39:22 MDT - Msg ID: 137006)
Undiscovered silver

Ach, we are glad to see the Moon-metal getting ssome well-deserved attention... and thank you, Ssirs TownCrier and R Powell, for the detailed and very civil discoursse of your Thoughtses!

(Our humble opinion on market mechanisms is that you should not be allowed to ssell what you don't actually have... or buy what you have no intention of accepting delivery of... and that if you DO, you cannot dump (sell or trade) the (essentially fraudulent until fulfilled) obligation on ssomeone else, but must carry it... and its consequences... until you CAN ssatisfy delivery.)

We thinks that Silver may not rise quite as ssuddenly as expected if the warehouses dry up... because we thinks there is and has been a LOT of it sstashed and ssitting quietly in personal possession all over the planet over the lasst several decades, "unaccounted" for...sss... and that this will be the lasst significant supply of it that will dribble into the marketss as a rising price coaxes people to ssell it. After that, THEN we will find out what Silver is worth, O yess, precious...

S.
Smeagol
(10/18/2005; 20:07:44 MDT - Msg ID: 137007)
Derivatives mesmerize

Sss... pretty lights flash and music plays for the winners in the casino, drawing new players as moths to the slaughtering flame.

It is almosst impossible to detect if you are under a sspell from inside it...

...until the magic sstops.

We rather prefers to walk the Trail under Moon and bright stars in lands where It has weight.

S.
Goldendome
(10/18/2005; 20:23:32 MDT - Msg ID: 137008)
The $200.00 Box

Plumb Bob was in the store yesterday, buying a few bottles of his favorite-- Lipton Lemon Tea. "Hows things goin?" I asked.

"Oh, busy," he says. "Keepin busy. Not makin any more money, but busy." with a smile.

"Seems like a lot of building goin' on this summer", I responded.

"Hell yes! Reckenwold, just phoned me about some more houses he wants to build up on the other hill. I told him, ok. But this time there's not going to be any bulls..t; I'm not going to take in the ass, like I did last time."

"Wha-da-ya-mean? How so?" I asked.

"Last time... he gave me the plans--I bid the job, and then he fiddle farted around for so long gettin things goin...and I didn't buy my parts because I didn't want to tie my money up; and like a dumb sh.t- I wasn't payin attention, so that when I went to buy the supplies I needed to finally do the job that I bid on back in JANUARY; everything went up so much, I didn't make nothin on the job!"

"Yah, all construction materials are going up from what I hear." I said.

"Well, copper tubing has dammed near doubled in price. Solder used to cost four dollars now it's six and a half." [Bob's one of those plumbers who still uses copper on his projects. A real master of the sweat joint.]

He continues on, "I told him this time there's going to be a time table for performance and a realistic means of adjusting for price changes. I'm tired of this sh.t. I couldn't believe it... Last week I picked up a box of copper fittings I'd ordered--just copper fittings...no biggern about a shoebox--$200.00!! I said, $200.00 for this little box of fittings?
I just about sh.t! The counter person says to me, "Well Bob, I can put them in a larger box if you'd like." "

I laughed at his story. Bob smiled, chuckeled, turned and walked out the doorway, shaking his head at his own situations.
YGM
(10/18/2005; 20:33:26 MDT - Msg ID: 137009)
Randy....Nationalizing mines.
Nationalization consideration is in my caution file as is confiscation. Our dear friend and Sage Another spoke to me of that very thing years ago (warning me as he knew I was a Gold miner) and I have a long memory. If it ever came down to that I don't think any of us would want to be living under the martial law that would be needed to constrain the masses anyways. I know of a river in the wilds of Bolivia far from ANY type of law where the locals love YGM like a family member and they use my 6" Dredge to make money mining placer Gold. There is where you would eventually find me if the Gov't tried either of the above scenarios...YGM
specie-man
(10/18/2005; 22:20:22 MDT - Msg ID: 137010)
Re: Undiscovered Silver
I was around during the 1980 silver boom. I remember the long lines at coin shops. People waited in line to cash in their coins, silverware, family heirlooms, etc. It was quite a scene. I remember selling my 1960-64 proof sets for "melt" because, at 21 times face value, they were worth a lot more to a silver refiner than a coin collector.
Other countries may have been considerably different, but the average US citizen blew their wad of silver back then and never replaced it. So the "undiscovered silver" in the US is mostly concentrated in the hands of a few big players (rumored to be Bill Gates and Warren Buffett).

And on that subject, I wonder if Warren Buffett still has his stash. I remember when silver ran up to $7.50 or so about the same time Buffett announced his large (long) silver position. I have my suspicions that Buffett had already started to sell when that announcement was made. Maybe it was the "textbook" method of maneuvering public perception to allow Buffett to sell a large quantity of silver without dropping the price (until he finished unloading for the most part).

On the subject of COMEX open interest, I agree with Rich Powell and Sir Smeagol, to some extent. For the COMEX spot price of silver to remain constant, every naked short seller who has no intention of ever delivering has an offsetting "naked long" buyer that has no intention of ever taking delivery. Anyone who goes "naked" (whether short or long) risks being burned. The large commercial traders (usually short) have reamed the small longs in the past - because the commercials have the financial backing which allows them to blink last in this game of chicken. And this game of "chicken" is, on paper, much larger than the physical market. That is how the Open Interest on COMEX can be such a huge number (greater than all the above-ground stockpiles on Earth, or whatever).

About two years ago (for my Wife's IRA account) I purchased a 5000-oz COMEX silver contract and took physical delivery of the five 1000-oz bars, having them shipped out of COMEX to our IRA custodian in Delaware. That is the only way to play the COMEX game as a small spec long.

mikal
(10/18/2005; 22:42:45 MDT - Msg ID: 137011)
Australians expecting gold to "exceeed $850"
http://www.crikey.com.au/articles/2005/10/19-1141-9808.htmlGold has the Midas Touch - Fat Prophets - Oct 19
Linked commentary summarizes some relevant Au history (twentieth century to the present) without stunning or new revelations beyond admitting gold's acceptance of late in the wider investment community.
But reading this long Au argument, like one's from unlikely places and doomish warnings from IMF and Greenpsan, finance ministers and economists of every stripes, "gold acceptance" is not yet "publicly" known. Few grasp concepts like "tipping point" and "par value". As a result no one is entitled to a trumpet announcing free-gold before it arrives.
Topaz
(10/19/2005; 01:34:11 MDT - Msg ID: 137012)
Could be worse ...but not much.
DX Green 90.65 ...Bond Green 0.10 ...Oil Red 0.40 ...SM Fut Red 28 ...PoG Red 1.32.

Oil and Bond HAVE TO hold station right here, right now!
Topaz
(10/19/2005; 01:58:36 MDT - Msg ID: 137013)
A bit of Trivia.
The Aussie-Kiwi rivalry in all things (sport and whatnot) is legendary. We Aussies enjoy nothing more than whupping NZ ...or almost! Beating the Poms at Cricket simply can't be topped.
The NZ Dollar has ALWAYS been our poor cousin, usually carring a 10% +or- discount to A$.
Several (15odd) Years ago the respective currencies converged and ALMOST traded on Par.

Of course this went relatively unnoticed in OZ ...but the KIWI's took it all very seriously ..."Parity Parties" were all the rage.

The Kiwi$ has been "Strong-as-Bro" these last few weeks and ...if they're not too worn out from winning the Rugby League last week (first time in 42Yr's) I'd reckon the more optimistic would be busy planning another round of PP's as I type!
Caradoc
(10/19/2005; 03:34:04 MDT - Msg ID: 137014)
Wilma now Cat 5; to be strongest storm since 1935
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/local/southflorida/sfl-wilma,0,1180061.story?coll=sfla-home-headlinesSo Wilma is on track to be the most intense storm in 70 years. This news comes as icing on a cake made of Wall Street scandal, rising interest rates, unaffordable heating oil, newly apparent inflation, and a DOW that can't keep its head above 10,300.

All this must be okay since gold is down.

Caradoc
Knallgold
(10/19/2005; 07:38:34 MDT - Msg ID: 137015)
Bad news coming?
The early start of selling today right into London open is unsual.Either bad news coming or just plain correction.

How will Gold react if Refco has to sell its longs?Down?It just sounds totally schizophrenic.
OvS
(10/19/2005; 08:45:52 MDT - Msg ID: 137016)
A few thoughts.
The government pumps money
into the economy, credit is
made easy, the stockmarket
booms, but unless you sell
and make a profit, you don't
pay more taxes.
Same of more and the housing
market inflates--big difference
though: the assessors come in
revalues your house and voila,
you don't have to sell your
house to pay more taxes: your
higher taxpayments become due
now.

There is this big debate going
on: is more and accelerating
inflation coming or deflation
and or depression?
If you lose your job and can't
pay for essentials, depression
is happening within the contents
of an inflation. You can't afford
the higher gasbills and much
higher property taxes, etc. the
depression is now. Within this
accelerating inflation, increasing
pockets of depression become
reality. It's like swimming in
the ocean (inflation) and dieing
of thurst (unable to get the
essentials). OK. Not a perfect
corollary. My input for today. OvS
OvS
(10/19/2005; 08:54:47 MDT - Msg ID: 137017)
Knallgold (nice name)
You agreed, the markets
are managed. Trouble
everywhere and the stock-
market is up, gold and
silver down. What's so
schizophrenic about that?
If it were otherwise, it
would not be market-manage-
ment...Nicht wahr? OvS
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(10/19/2005; 11:46:19 MDT - Msg ID: 137018)
We educate first-time investors
http://www.usagold.com/gold/special/starter.html

gold ownership starter kit
TownCrier
(10/19/2005; 12:45:50 MDT - Msg ID: 137019)
Today's price sag in New York's gold futures trading
http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.htmlWith the Refco meltdown serving as the situational backdrop, in a timely email to me today a very good friend of mine elegantly restated our firmly held maxim:

"The paper market is only as good as its credibility."

If players see a growing risk of default, they are likely to either avoid the market completely, to exit any long positions they have in the dubious contracts, or else pile into short positions and ride the meltdown as the price falls reflecting the market's discounting of the contract's performance value.

Just as Refco's stock was massively discounted, and just as Refco's bonds were massively discounted, it only stands to reason that derivative contracts written directly by -- or tainted in network-association with -- Refco would be discounted also.

FOA warned many years ago that the futures market would more likely fail expressed as a price meltdown rather than a price meltup, and at such time the value of physical gold would come into its own as it is not contingent upon the performance of any counterparties. A key point, however, is that with physical metal being available in such thin volume as compared with the papergold volume, and given the disarray that might follow a derivative fallout, those who were slow to act for metal may have to wait a long long time before they can get served even at much higher prices. It would be a world of eager buyers pitted against very patient and cautious sellers.

There's no way to know up front. Only in hindsight can you know when a dip was just a dip, when it was the start of a correction, and when it marked the beginning of the end of confidence in the credibility of a papery market.

You should already be diversified in which case none of this is cause for alarm. If not, call USAGOLD-Centennial today for consultation on a diversification strategy that's right for your personal investment goals.

Toll free 1-800-869-5115 Ext. 100

R.
Galearis
(10/19/2005; 12:54:28 MDT - Msg ID: 137020)
@ rich re silver thread
A very nice post and I hope I can add to the mix:

Hello Rich,

Just a short comment. Yes, I do share Ted Butler's view about silver fundamentals, but do not share his monetary outlook. Of course there is adequate supplies of silver for the users so far,,,and one could say that this reflects the insipid behaviour of the bull market so far. (I will explain that a bit later.) The magic ingredient is leased metal borrowed to make up the deficit. Yes, paper people like Kaplan could (and did) say that this is irrelevant, but only the really blind would consider the market healthy having to rely on borrowed and irreplaceable silver for stability. And only the very foolish would consider that this did not indicate supply problems and shortage. In a strange way these folks seem to think that the supply dynamics are like an expanding manufacturing business wherein the assets were borrowed in order to fund the acquisition of some necessary widgit for production. The more accurate metaphor is about the loser who has to go to a loan shark in order to avoid bankruptcy.

So with the use of leased metal from the shrinking central bank supplies (about 55 Moz are likely all that is left and these stocks are in India) we see the GFMS data showing that the deficit is being made up to the last ounce � a laughable piece of work according to Ted Butler. But the system could be that SHORT of metal that it would lease what it needed and no more. In fact this is likely to be the case. This too (from my slightly different perspective) would indicate shortage. (smile) Said shortages may not necessarily satisfy all investment demand that is OFF market and invisible. Small dealers would (and are) short of metal to sell. The system borrows metal because it is short of what it needs. That by definition is a shortage, but in the wacky world of markets the perspective is such that (again metaphorically speaking) the fat man sits down to the meal and is allowed to eat exactly what he needs and no more for satisfaction. (He then gets up from the table and tells the peasants to stop complaining, there is lots of food around!) It doesn't matter if the peasants are starving.

That is how we can see COMEX players, the longs and the shorts who have "financialized goals" and the physical market users � usually the industrial sector � who benefit from cheap metal due to sales of abundant paper supplies � and those of us who also benefit as buyers for speculative reasons. But I do not see the balance of supply and demand reflected in a fair price for this metal. What I do see is rationing ahead and a bunch of draconian rule changes by the COMEX management.

I also do not see much of a bull market considering the cupboard is nearly bare,,,,in the face of obvious shortages out there for small specs who buy small dealer silver,,,or even some industrial users who have found themselves back-ordered by refineries.

One could buy silver in 2001, the last time the USD was at 120 on the forex for an average price of $4.37. Today's spot close was $7.59, up $0.65 from a month ago. But the USD is worth only .75% of what it was in 2001. That is $5.69 in year 2001 dollars. A month and a half ago it was $7 (about average for 2005). In 2001 dollars that is equivalent to $5.25. Silver has stayed around the $5 average price for the past 15 years. So is up $0.25 over its AVERAGE price of the past fifeen years if you factor in year 2001 USD dollars. Silver hasn't put in all that impressive a performance if looked upon in this way � and some would laugh at the exercise, granted - but if leased supplies continue to back-fill the deficit, and paper trades continue to trump the physical without stress of actual metal shortage entering the picture,,,,perceptually,,,then this market doddles along in similar fashion until the shortage is acknowledged by the greater public.

(Will the paper-charting pundits be confused?)

It is a remarkable feat of paper that price IMO will NOT meaningfully rise until stocks of a commodity are run down to the point of extinction. This market will be seen to be in balance until it very suddenly and traumatically isn't.

Best regards
G.
TownCrier
(10/19/2005; 13:43:39 MDT - Msg ID: 137021)
Eye on the sky
http://today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=topNews&storyID=2005-10-19T164626Z_01_ROB857009_RTRUKOC_0_US-WEATHER-WILMA.xmlFierce Wilma threatens Mexico, Florida

MIAMI (Reuters) - Hurricane Wilma became the fiercest Atlantic hurricane ever seen as it churned toward western Cuba and Mexico's Yucatan peninsula on Wednesday, and threatened densely populated Florida after having already killed 10 people in Haiti.

Wilma was stronger than any storm on record, including both Katrina, which devastated New Orleans in late August, and Rita, which hit the Texas-Louisiana coast in September.

"People need to be prepared. Get ready for this," said Police Chief Bill Mauldin of Key West.

Wilma was the 21st storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, tying a record set in 1933. It was also the 12th hurricane and tied the record for most hurricanes in a season set in 1969.

The season still has six weeks left to run but has already spawned three of the most intense hurricanes on record -- Katrina, Rita and now Wilma.

Hurricane experts say the Atlantic has swung back into a period of heightened storm activity that could last another 20 years.

Once in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, Wilma was expected to make a sharp turn to the northeast, toward Florida.

...frozen orange juice futures hit a fresh six-year high on Wednesday...

^---(from url)----^

Heightened fiscal strains on the Federal budget for the next 20 years -- on top of the baby boomer issue?

How long will the rest of the world be the bottomless pit into which we can dump our endless spew of bonds in exchange for ready cash with which we may enjoy a current lifestyle while they defer theirs?

Human nature would suggest there is a limit to the asymmetry of austerity that a majority will endure while a minority frolic.

Gold value is uniquely suited to replace the U.S. bond value within central banking reserves at such time as civiliztions opt to level the playing field.

R.
mikal
(10/19/2005; 13:45:55 MDT - Msg ID: 137022)
Positive gold review
http://www.moneyweek.com/article/1410/investing/other-viewpoints/mwk-gold.htmlGold Entering New Stage of Bull Run - Andrew van Sickle - October 20, 2005
TownCrier
(10/19/2005; 13:51:10 MDT - Msg ID: 137023)
Refco and lawyers appear in court
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Refco Inc. and its lawyers appeared in bankruptcy court on Wednesday as they awaited the start of the restructuring process seeking to rescue parts of the nearly-collapsed futures and commodities brokerage.

The courtroom was filled with creditors' attorneys and other affected parties in the bankruptcy proceeding.

Refco's lawyers will present motions to preserve the well-being of Refco's current operations, such as maintaining bank accounts and ensuring the payment of employees.

---------------------

Is it better to be an employee than a customer or counterparty of a bankrupt financial house?

It's probably best simply NOT to be in the shoes of either group.

R.
USAGOLD Daily Market Report
(10/19/2005; 14:55:54 MDT - Msg ID: 137024)
Page Update!
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Daily Gold Market Report has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.

WEDNESDAY Market Excerpts

Gold futures end at 3-wk low

October 19 (from Reuters, MarketWatch) -- U.S. gold futures settled at their lowest level in three weeks on Wednesday, pressured by speculative selling after a slide in oil prices and following a higher dollar early in the day, traders said.

COMEX December gold contracts tumbled $8.80 to $465.80, its cheapest level since Sept. 27.

"Right now, the market's volatile and it's all about the specs," said a trader at New York precious metals desk. He said the huge fund long exposure in gold remained largely in place, however, despite the day's pullback.

Another dealer said traders had an opportunity to take profits in gold due to a recently stronger dollar and after gold reached technical top above $475 early this week.

"I don't think people are ready to give up yet," the first trader said. "I think the weak longs are probably going to get out, and then gold's going to go up to test $500."

The yellow metal last flickered above that psychological price in December 1987.

Analysts and traders have been saying that growing concern about inflation and U.S. economic growth is likely to help gold rally above $500 in the near-term.

Broker ABN Amro expects gold prices to scale a fresh high next year due to inflation and stock market concerns and constraints in mine supplies.

Peter Grandich, editor of the Grandich Letter considers Wednesday's session "classic secular bull-market trading." Corrections in the market begin "with a big $10-type down day, some sideways action after that, then on to a new higher level," he explained.

"Any significant selling should be contained in the $460-$465area and the surprise is likely to be a quick reversal to the upside."

---(see url for full news, 24-hr newswire, market quotes)---
TownCrier
(10/19/2005; 15:07:30 MDT - Msg ID: 137025)
Profit booking takes gold down in future trading
http://www.deepikaglobal.com/ENG5_sub.asp?ccode=ENG5≠wscode=120136Mumbai, Oct 19 (UNI) Gold today eased in the future trading on poor speculative demand by bear operators, traders at the Multi-Commodity Exchange (MCX) said.

Traders received a report from abroad that ... gold touched negative at US dollar 469.75/470.00 per troy ounce from its previous day's close in the global markets, which did not have an impact on domestic prices, they added.

^---(from url)---^

..."which did NOT have an impact on domestic [India] prices"...

Don't limit your view of gold to what you may only see through dollar-centric U.S. market eyes.

R.
TownCrier
(10/19/2005; 15:40:39 MDT - Msg ID: 137026)
GCC ministers delay currency union decision
http://www.godubai.com/gulftoday/article.asp?AID=20&Section=BusinessJEDDAH: Gulf Arab finance ministers withheld approval late on Tuesday for convergence targets for their planned currency union, saying they needed more time to agree details, a Gulf source said.

The decision means the targets will not be presented to an annual Gulf summit in December and will take another year before they can be endorsed by Gulf leaders, he said.

Gulf Co-operation Council nations plan to unify their dollar-pegged currencies by 2010.

...But hopes of monetary union ... could fall foul of concerns about ceding monetary authority to a regional body, and could be blown off course by oil price fluctuations which cause volatility in the petroleum-fuelled economies.

"This is not an easy task. It will require strong political commitment," International Monetary Fund Managing Director Rodrigo Rato told the ministers in Jeddah.

^---(see url for article)---^

Certainly monetary union requires a strong political commitment, but arguably so also does the present arrangement by which they each maintain their dollar-based orientations.

As they look to move toward a new alignment anyway, based on the relative weight of their individual economies, why not consider an easier preliminary step than actual currency unification -- replace their individual current dollar-orientation commitments each with a floating MTM-structured central bank balance sheet which is denominated in the local currency.

The resulting domestic prices of similar reserve assets (such as gold), each as individually determined by it own monetary management and strength of economy, will let each country in the group easily judge its currency's relative worth against any other.

They could consider the arrangement suitably finished right there. Or, if they muster the political will to open their borders and choose to further integrate themselves into a viable currency union after that, so be it.

R.
TownCrier
(10/19/2005; 15:57:28 MDT - Msg ID: 137027)
Emirates Gold wins Good Delivery Status
http://www.godubai.com/gulftoday/article.asp?AID=21&Section=BusinessTHE Dubai Metals and Commodities Centre (DMCC) has awarded the Dubai Good Delivery (DGD) standard to local gold refining firm Emirates Gold. Emirates Gold has thus become the first local gold refinery to be added to eight approved international firms holding the DGD standard.

In line with its ambitious drive to promote international standards for the local and regional trade, DMCC has developed the Dubai Good Delivery standard.

This standard, ***specifically designed for small gold bars*** does, in DMCC's view, fully complement the London Good Delivery standard for large 400-ounce bars.

***The creation of gold standard improves tradability and distribution of small bars and enhances the reputation of approved refineries. By ultimately increasing confidence in the quality of gold bars for the local and regional markets, this system in turn creates extra trade finance activities. Approved bars will also meet delivery requirements for the Dubai Gold & Commodities Exchange (DGCX) thus easing processes for participants.***

Emirates Gold Managing Director Mohammed Shakarchi said: "The Gold Standard allows us to capitalise on the international and regional trading opportunities that will be available through DGCX which will be launched next month."

^---(from url)---^

In a post a few months ago I emphasized that Dubai's "small bar standard" would serve everyone well to ensure and preserve greatest possible liquidity and reliable benchmark pricing (as compared to unwieldy 400 oz LGD) at such time as when the price of gold may increase by a full order of magnitude (10x) or more on the world stage.

I'm holding to that assessment, and articles such as this serve as reinforcement.

Dubai launches next month, and Greenspan is slated to step down as dollar-custodian in three. Whither go gold and the dollar then?

Call USAGOLD-Centennial today for physical metal to see you through the transition.

R.
CoBra(too)
(10/19/2005; 16:11:04 MDT - Msg ID: 137028)
Refco revisited
I recall a quote from MK some years back - we're probably just another LTCM (derivative) kind of fiasco away from kickstarting a run to the security of the real value of gold.

Maybe Refco will prove to be that catalyst. The way it's handled stinks to high heaven - it seems the usual culprits as GS, JPMC are finding themselves in the drivers seat.

Of course not directly - just call 'em Flower companies...

As an ironic aside - it was noone else only the 4th. largest Austrian Bank, BAWAG, which has just taken over the recently privatised Austrian Post Bank (Postsparkasse)to extend a 425 Million � personal loan to Philip Bennett, secured by his 34% interest in Refco just 24 hours before the scandal broke.
BAWAG is wholly owned by the organization of Austrian Unions - mmh - looks like Karl Marx has got it totally wrong...
cb2
David Linkley
(10/19/2005; 17:05:53 MDT - Msg ID: 137029)
Refco revisited
Hi CoBra(Too)
I very much agree that Refco has pushed us further to the edge as witnessed by the market stablization efforts over the past couple of days. The more markets react inversely to the fundamentals gives us strong clues the Treasury and Fed are worried. In the case of Refco I'd be willing to bet a bunch of falling fiat that a failure of derivatives has occured and is threatening to cause a chain reaction. I also agree the the usual crooks (Goldman Sachs & Co.) are trying to cover up to guard against any future legal liabilities. Our founding fathers must be rolling over in their graves. Gold is now ascending regardless of how much the very stupid western central banksters sell. Gold is going to $500 per ounce very soon a there's little the establishment can do about it.
PRITCHO
(10/19/2005; 18:01:32 MDT - Msg ID: 137030)
Wake Up America ! - - -
http://www.jsmineset.com/home.aspSnip: Wake Up America - -Jim Sinclair

You are not the sun of the universe around which all other countries orbit. You once were but now your financial leaders have allowed - for political expediency's sake - a financial train wreck to occur. That tangled wreckage is your economic and financial legacy.

You have been told by your central bank to borrow on your home, which is long term debt, to buy consumer goods and services that have a short shelf life. You are so obedient to your esteemed financial leadership that now you are at a net negative savings rate as your spending habits suggest there is no tomorrow.

Your credit card defaults have hit record levels. Your bankruptcy laws no longer allow you to erase your debts but only to delay repaying them. You are on the road to slavery between taxes - which must in time increase - and debt you must service. Welcome back to the last century for those of you that perspire to make a living.

You have allowed your financial leaders to hand over world leadership to those nations who were only tens years ago incapable of feeding themselves. Yes, you are the most powerful nation militarily but unless you plan to draft a few million men and women and spend even more on weaponry, you cannot take the entire planet by force - or even fight another war for that matter.

You have failed to study the history of how Afghanistan and Iraq have buried every nation that has invaded them since the Stone Age. They know guerilla warfare better than anyone. They make bombs and hide them by the roadside, detonating them remotely out of harm's way. They have no respect for human life including their own and bleed you financially to death, winning by fiscal and physical attrition.

Now it looks like even Mother Nature is angry at everyone as freaks of nature become common place. Could it be that she wrote the movie "The Day After Tomorrow?"

Yet from the stars of financial TV, you are advised to buy the common stock of the USA, the US dollar and to sell gold because the dollar is the only real currency or merit. You are also encouraged to buy every dip in the general equities market because they are cheap and to do so is patriotic.

The American patriots of old where chastised by the Tories for being unpatriotic. For their mischaracterization of the Colonial patriots and the Colonial pamphleteers of the time all the Tories ended up in Canada, the Caribbean, or back in the British Isles. If I recall correctly, King George did not fare too well either.

So please hold you flag waving letter JT. I love my home and the Constitution as the Founding Fathers wrote it. I assure you if the Founding Fathers were here today, they would launch another revolution, this time based on Patriot 1 & 2 as well as the recent Supreme Court decision on Eminent Domain as a transfer from private citizens to private interests.

China and India - both of which have enfranchised hundreds of millions of consumers - will eventually become the world's first and second largest economies. They do not like dollars any more. They do not like American and never have. They are not fans of Japan for obvious reasons. They love gold and always will. They disdain paper currency and always will.

So continue banging away at gold which is the only honest money. Keep bashing China, expecting an immediate recession and banking failure. Call China the Japan of today, indicating overextension and failure, even though you are dead wrong on all accounts.

The US dollar benefits from increased interest rates but single digit rates are hopeless in offsetting the violation of economic law which is the US financial credo. Suckers will follow the ill- informed right into the dollar rat trap.

Did it ever strike you that Refco's failure was for none of the apparent reasons announced? None of the items made public have a tinker's damn of being the real reason for the instant meltdown of a multi-billion dollar entity.

Is it not most interesting that this meltdown came immediately after a meeting of key players of the interest sensitive over-the-counter derivative traders crowd called by the New York Fed which is of course called by the Chairman of the Federal Reserve?

Is it not interesting that the Chairman of the Federal Reserve publicly stated less than 30 days ago his position that NO regulation is required of the over-the-counter derivatives arena.

Doe it not invite suspicion that Refco had been broke for more than two weeks and preparations were put in place to pick up the pieces instantly, liquefy the system, and then close the book on this event.

The Refco event STINKS to high heaven as no reason quoted for the event can be accepted as being factual.

The reason I know this is because I was the principal of a commodity clearing firm, owned one of the largest US commodity dealerships in the 70s, was a member of multiple commodity exchanges and was a principal of a commodity brokerage company and arbitrage derivative dealing firm. But mostly it was because I was appointed by former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker to advise the Hunts in the liquidation of their silver position as a prerequisite for a loan consortium's bailout of the financial system at the time. No loan would have occurred unless I was retained to oversee the liquidation.

Hear me and here me loud and clear � no event so far made public could be the reason for Refco's implosion except one which has not been even hinted at. Was Refco's position as principle in the "over-the-counter" unregulated derivative trading subsidiary or did it go principle in the holding company to iron out the earnings derivatives that backfired in a world class nuclear explosion?

Maybe the lawyers representing the class actions are too dumb to look into the unregulated activities of Refco or they might be promised a slam dunk on their cases now pending that are not wholly focused on the real reason for the problem.

Gold is going to take out $529 no matter how hard the forces of evil try to condemn it.

Flaccus
(10/19/2005; 19:00:13 MDT - Msg ID: 137031)
Pritcho
Yea. Yea. Blame it all on America when the entire industrial world is mired in a leftist, socialist stew from which not even the strongest can manufacture an escape. Take a look at your country, my friend, and you will see the same ugly shade of grey.
Cometose
(10/19/2005; 19:15:32 MDT - Msg ID: 137032)
MARTIN WIESS ///////Flash alert
It's 1000 words and I posted it in its entirety over across the hall at K....

He's a numbers man and I 've been following his analyisis for 7 years and his advice........

Whatever he's feeding on besides what is apparent and in the open ......INFLATION ,,,,,HIGHER INTEREST RATES coming ....HIgh Oil prices .......
GM FORD FANNIE REFCO etc etc etc,,,,,,,,,his him SHAKING....

Some people who are in Numbers are just abler than others to SYNTHESIZE THE DATA.............

I'm afraid this is what is getting him .......

He is recommending every subscriber close positions in all STOCKS and convert to cash / treasuries.......

David Linkley
(10/19/2005; 19:32:40 MDT - Msg ID: 137033)
Flaccus
One of the strengths of America has been to openly critique ourselves and strive for greatness. GE one of the most admired companies in the world has managers meetings where regardless of rank, the gloves come off and complaints are brought out, no one in the meetings is off limits, even the CEO. Sinclair is right, decades of building socialism brought about by growing corporatism has left us on the verge of ruin. When it happens (and it will) the socialists will blame capitalism for the fall and the sheeple will be none the wiser. America has the strengths to combat this evil along with our treasonous leaders provided they know what it is they're fighting. These forums along with thousands of commentaries are seeding millions of brains slowly for the upcoming epic battles. Make no mistake, large interests are now plotting our downfall and passing into laws the ability to imprison us. (i.e. Patriot Acts I&II, new backruptcy law) The road to serfdom in now in place, will we walk to it willingly our will we restore our place as a great and moral nation?
PRITCHO
(10/19/2005; 19:34:18 MDT - Msg ID: 137034)
@ Flaccus -- - A Dissappointed Patriot?
Thanks (not) for blaming the messenger.I posted the link & where it was from.Including the headline it was ALL very much the work of one James Sinclair --an American you should ALL be proud of.

For what it's worth - many times in the past I have posted here my DISGUST with my OWN Government. I think it stinks & I have NO hesitation it saying it.It's maybe about time that you found the courage to look in a mirror as well.
David Linkley
(10/19/2005; 19:48:37 MDT - Msg ID: 137035)
Currency carry trade
Just a note concerning the current dollar rally helped by the interest rate differental carry crowd. We have see various strategies (Yen carry trade) unwind in a week and destroy 6-9 months of profits. Be careful out there.
Flaccus
(10/19/2005; 20:08:06 MDT - Msg ID: 137036)
Pritcho
Blame the messenger? Not me. I think you agree with Sinclair and that's why you posted it. Are you trying to tell me that you don't? You see Sinclair as a great American thinker? That he's telling you things beyond the pale?? That there is substance to that vacuous rant?

Please, Pritcho. Fill this forum with your mind.
mikal
(10/19/2005; 20:40:44 MDT - Msg ID: 137037)
"And the meek shall inherit the earth..."
Well I TRIED to be meek when I wrote this at other forums ;)
"Excellent gold action.
Refco forced liquidations had PM's and dollar down, Dow down triple digits before Chase earnings spin, lower oil/Wilma relief, higher housing starts and Exchange Stabilization Fund PPT Working Groupies yowsa!
PM's sold off what could have sold off a day later,
but to new satisfied owners.
Edgar Allen Poe wrote poignant short stories such
as The Fall of the House of Usher[Usery ;)]:
"An air of stern, deep and irredeemable gloom hung over and pervaded all."
"One of the phantasmagoric conceptions of my friend, partaking not so rigidly of the spirit of abstraction, may be shadowed forth, although feebly, in words."
This "friend" the haunted Mr. Usher, seems the modern predecesser to zombie-like JPMorguegrinChaise, mordantly bankrupt and effectively prostate on its pointy CHAISELOUNGE of offsetting financial nails.
Though impaled by innumerable derivatives, mechanically arises every night for the living dead trail companions Citi, Deustch to carry on in their own world.
The Stranger
(10/19/2005; 20:53:03 MDT - Msg ID: 137038)
Morgan Stanley Recommends Gold Purchases to Asian Central Banks and Holders of Petrodollars
http://66.102.7.104/search?q=cache:76j_nJy-pIEJ:www.msdwd.com/GEFdata/digests/latest-digest.html+gold+reserve+currency+jen&hl=en
"We argue gold is a good hedge, or, more precisely a �neutraliser�, against currency risk.

This favours central banks holding more gold in their reserves to dilute their exposure to foreign currencies. First, the USD could falter and thus erode the USD value of the Asian central banks� foreign reserve holdings. Second, the Asian currencies could appreciate leading to a valuation loss on official reserves. Gold holdings could partly �neutralise� or dilute the first risk but can do little about the latter, especially if the country in question has low gold holdings. For the same reasons, petrodollar holders should also consider buying gold."



Goldilox
(10/19/2005; 20:53:58 MDT - Msg ID: 137039)
Shades of Grey
@ Flaccus,

It's easier to toss about epithets like "vacuous rant", but I'm anxiously waiting any substance in your rebuttal. Please share.

If not Sinclair's "Authoritarian Free Enterprise" and global Dollar hegemony, to what mechanisms do you ascribe the current global financial mess?

Better yet, how would you reverse the current maufacturing employment crisis that, hidden by BLS abstractions, seems to be rapidly approaching 1930's stature?

From what I gather, globalism is biting itself in the butt, as rising transportation fuel costs are eating up the "savings" achieved by using third-world "disposable" labor.
The Stranger
(10/19/2005; 21:02:33 MDT - Msg ID: 137040)
Morgan Stanley's Presentation to Central Bankers
http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/latest-digest.html" Recommending gold as an investment vehicle to central banks may sound like carrying owls to Athens..."

Druid
(10/19/2005; 21:08:12 MDT - Msg ID: 137041)
"The Great Scramble....."

Druid: Are we at the tipping point where the giants of the world are beginning "the great scramble" as prophesied by ANOTHER & FOA so many years ago? The Refco situation reeks of a sacrifice but for what reason and orchestrated by whom? This guy was no cookie baking, ribbon tying kind of sort. No, this was a take down of one of their own.
Goldilox
(10/19/2005; 21:08:24 MDT - Msg ID: 137042)
Overkill by the Federal Reserve
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htmsnip:

The Fed is being relentless in their mantra to raise interest rates�it came out in their Beige Book today and was reiterated by four more Fed Governors out on the speaking tour. Will they cut off their nose to spite their face??? It looks like the deflation scare a couple years ago was nothing more than a smokescreen for the Fed to inflate, and now they have to deal with the aftermath of an overshoot to the 1% Fed Funds rate. The 1% Fed Funds rate came as a response to the bursting of the stock bubble, but that overshoot to 1% is now getting another overshoot to higher rates when the economy really can't take it. I will be very curious to see where real estate prices go in a few years if mortgage rates move back to the 8% to 9% area.

So far, the Fed has been impotent to move long-term rates higher. The yield for ten-year Treasury paper on June 29, 2004 was 4.69% and the following day the Fed began to raise the Fed Funds rate in "measured" steps. Fed Funds has moved from 1% to 3.75%, but ten-year yields have gone from 4.69% to 4.46% at today's close. The yield curve is flattening which means economic weakness ahead. It also means we could see the bottom fall out of the stock market if the Fed continues to the point of inverting the yield curve. Make NO MISTAKE about it folks; the Fed knows what they are doing, just as they knew they were the ones DIRECTLY responsible for popping the stock market bubble back in 2000. In 1997 Mr. Greenspan talked of "irrational exuberance" and three years later he took ACTION to cave the stock market. Have a look at the next two charts to see that the yield curve was considered "normal" (I used a snapshoot in mid-1999) and stock prices were moving higher. Now look at the second yield curve at the very top of the stock market�the Fed raised rates so much that they inverted the yield curve with the carnage in the stock market to follow.

-Goldilox

Mike Hartman's analysis of the "rock and hard place the FED finds itself in. I, for one, agree that they have done much more to create the bubbles and collapses than abate them.
Flaccus
(10/19/2005; 21:56:23 MDT - Msg ID: 137043)
Goldilox
It is ridiculous, as Mr. Sinclair suggests, to believe that the hurricanes are God-sent retribution against the modern Soddom and Gomorrah, that is, the United States. To extend that thinking to its ultimate conclusion, one would have to assume that the tidal waves in India and Indonesia, or the earthquake in Pakistan, were also acts of retribution. How many among the politically correct crowd would agree to that? Does the Pakistani see the hurricanes in the United States as a victory perpetrated by Allah? Do we sit around and say, "Well, that earthquake in Pakistan -- that's one for God over Allah, isn't it?!"

That's just one example of what I call "vacuous." I could go further if you would like me to, but I believe I've made my point.
Cometose
(10/19/2005; 21:59:56 MDT - Msg ID: 137044)
NEWSMAX/ cheney story
Newsmax is headlining a story which is rumoring that
CHENEY is leaving .........

Reminiscent of AGNEW..........
prior to NIXON's exit enter GERALD FORD.....


Enter CONDI RICE......

OvS
(10/19/2005; 22:31:12 MDT - Msg ID: 137045)
Derivatives
O' Lord. Morgan Stanley still
thinks hedging can take away
their currency risks.
They just paid 57 billion for
Bank One. Which one is going
to be next? Mostly cousins are
running our biggest banks and
as soon as the Socialists, oops,
I mean the Democrats, are taking
over, all of them will be
taken over (saved) by the Bank
for the Nifty Ones, good ol'
Aldrich and Paul something or
other Bank.
Chairman Harrison and I have
something in common. We both
like polo and table tennis.
What an incongruous mix. Up and
away. OvS
Goldendome
(10/19/2005; 22:34:44 MDT - Msg ID: 137046)
For the next Federal Reserve Chairman

Of course -- James Sinclair! He certainly has a market background of experience and knowledge far superior to the current short list of candidates, most of whom have only academic or governmental training and "connections".

But saddly, he tells it like it is (which irritates or maddens some -- even here). And we would guess that our President and Vice President will be looking for a "yes man" -- a team play, as they might put it; something that would probably leave out Mr. Sinclair when he disagreed with foolish policy.
OvS
(10/19/2005; 22:54:04 MDT - Msg ID: 137047)
Sinclair for Fed Chair?
What a brilliant idea!
We need a scrificial lamb.
But, he is smart.
He won't accept.
We'll fix it. Sent Rice
to Tanz. The Airabs hate
her but the Tanz gonna
listen.
OK, done. Fade out. Cut.
Goldilox
(10/19/2005; 23:21:48 MDT - Msg ID: 137048)
God's retribution?
@ Flaccus,

You successfully side-stepped my financial question by turning to "religion". "God" can represent any number of things to various people, and a lot of folks wonder about the "karma" of those events, but they have NOTHING to do with JS' PM, financial, and geopolitical analysis.

Personally, I think the technology exists to suggest that these events are not completely natural. Hurricanes have suddenly developed the ability to grow from Cat5 in mere hours, and seem to be able to make hard 90� turns and do loop-de-loops, an unprecented power totally unexplained by NOAA.

As for the Tsunami, an Asian reporter last January asked a question about the amount of off-shore mineral exploration/extraction in the immediate vicintity of the seismic activity, but the question disappeared before any serious discussion. One also has to wonder why the largest US Navy Task Force in history was pre-positioned in the neighborhood of the Tsunami a few months prior to the event. I live in a Navy town and no one ever explained why these ships' planned shore leaves were all cancelled in September and seven complete carrier groups (only four participated in the battle of Midway) were sent to the China Seas with no warning or explanation to the sailors and their families.

No matter what the actual cause, it sure put the Islamic Gold Dinar to bed in a hurry!

Back to the original question. What specifically do you find errant with Sinclair's financial and geopolitical analysis, and on what sources do you base your findings?

Personally, I couldn't care less about his "religion", or anyone else's for that matter.
Knallgold
(10/20/2005; 01:56:37 MDT - Msg ID: 137049)
OvS
Yes,the markets are managed,I don't have a problem to aknowledge this (to most) obvious fact.I just think it is not good in the scale it is being done now.This is a moral statement-where are you standing OvS? Otto von ?

The two souls in the chest,the healthy and the sick,market forces versus marketmanaging forces,fighting for supremacy,the more they fight the bigger the tension grows,isn't that like schizophrenie?Will the patient be healthy again someday?Is the intervention done do cure the patient (like Belgian suggests),or is it only making worse?Or is the reality (electrum)shock therapy better?
Topaz
(10/20/2005; 02:19:02 MDT - Msg ID: 137050)
alt Gold.
http://www.futuresource.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=GC&o=100/DX&a=D&z=610x300&d=LOW&b=LINE&st=As we worm our way through Oct, PoG is looking a bit jaded vis the Basket, but holding up far better than expected.
With Nov a non-del Mth, Gnomex will be free of Au AND Ag Metal commitments ...to make hay, or Paper.

Real tight here on the intra-market front. POO wants $64, Bond wants 5.5% and SM "needs" sub-90 DX.

Someone is going home Fri bitterly disappointed imo! Will it be SM?

We'll see!
Topaz
(10/20/2005; 02:31:08 MDT - Msg ID: 137051)
Not that I've given up ...
http://www.nymex.com/media/delivery.pdf...entirely on Oct deliveries YET!
11K so far is good considering October was trading @ 20k throughout Sept and did'nt EVER trade as "most active" ...that honour, since mid Aug went straight to Dec.

On that basis, there could certainly be some Lurkers on the current month.
OI reckons on 223 as of yesterday for Oct.
mas
(10/20/2005; 03:50:44 MDT - Msg ID: 137052)
Gold Stock's Main News?
http://biz.yahoo.com/ms/051019/146454.html

Four Gold Stocks for Your Radar Screen
Wednesday October 19, 7:00 am ET
By Parvathy Krishnan, CFA

Gold, beautiful and much sought after, has evoked a wide range of emotions among humans since it was discovered more than 5,000 years ago. On the one hand, gold bugs believe gold is the only true store of value and is a great inflation hedge. The other extreme might be typified by Warren Buffett, arguably the greatest investor of our time, who said the following about gold in 1998--"It gets dug out of the ground in Africa, or someplace. Then we melt it down, dig another hole, bury it again and pay people to stand around guarding it. It has no utility. Anyone watching from Mars would be scratching their head."

More.....

Conclusion
Despite their solid fundamentals, all of these stocks in our opinion are currently overvalued based on our assumptions about the long-run price of gold. Of course, different gold-price assumptions will result in different opinions. For example, if we assume a normalized gold price of about $600 per ounce, Barrick, Freeport, and Goldcorp would be attractive at their current valuations.

Parvathy Krishnan, CFA does not own shares in any of the securities mentioned above.

This article originally appeared on Oct. 3.

Belgian
(10/20/2005; 04:57:10 MDT - Msg ID: 137053)
The management /manipulation of financial-monetary markets :
Since "-1994-", one should consider the essence of the FM-markets as almost completely "virtual". * The classic management * of the markets went into overdrive/overstretch. This is an end (phase) and NOT a beginning or a continuation.

When markets succeed in staying virtual for a long time (decade)...one experiences this as real. What a deadly trap ! Possible for only one single simple reason > General Fear (rather frustration) of the opportunity loss (cost).
This very strong "sentiment" is the stradivarius on which the "working groups" capitalize.

But through dollar-centric-system glasses, one only sees one particular, all embracing, working groups (managers) and ignores the existance (and growth) of other groups.

The general -management- of any market will always contain a percentage of (healthy) -manipulation- in it. But since 1994 the very nature and purposes of the manipulation(s) have dramatically changed.

Many do pass their time (spend good energy) trying to evidence (argument) the above as being right-wrong or something in between.

Most (99,99%) do stick to the conclusion that there can't exist such a thing as a virtual-fake, market ! A market is a market and basta ! Belgian keeps disagreeing with this...otherwise wouldn't have touched a nanogram of goldmetal. I would never have considered goldmetal if the managed markets were manipulated a healthy bit.

A debt-driven, political economy, is a priori a "managed" economy. But once the "manipulation" factor in this management keeps on growing (out of healthy proportions)...w're in Big trouble. Or,...there is a growing desire for fundamental "change".

And this desire-need for change is simply put : Out of the suffocation spiral virtual paper...back into tangibles ! A drastic reduction of videogame market in favor of a market of tangibles. GOLD is one of these tangibles...and the most important one. The new Dubai financial center hasn't made a paper refinary but a gold refinery. And Dubai means, the crossroad (new epicenter) for oil-value exchange for the next 2 generations (50 yrs). This is NOT just another shopping mall.
Asia (and China in particular) is not going to be lured into copying the AA managed/manipulated paper-markets (financial culture)!
A genuine financial market is a capital market for trading * PRODUCTIVE * capital !!! The present (virtual) markets are trading UN-productive capital and producing (disproportionally) ever more of it.
Asia produces "products" (tangibles) and not oceans of units of account. They liberalized their goldmetal market and not their financial markets ! Russians put a gold-question to Trichet (not to any other central banker)!

Having reached 45 years lows in IRs in one Big managed ( + manipulated) move of 25 years...IS a systemic move...VERY visible for the whole planet. IR is a "paper" affair and not a tangible affair. Bonds are paper products...false promisses ! The Dubai goldrefinery produces finegold...a tangible metal. Kilo goldbars...NOT kilos of paper promises.


Refco was one out of many executive paperizers, employed by the "working-groups" (ESF-TPPT).
Add the ongoing (not so) controversy on the silver ETF > PAPER !

The GSE even paperized (securitizised) bricks.

The Two Trillion dollar/day FOREX market to service a world yearly GDP of $ 40 Trillion ! How many days are there in a (financial) year !? How much -management- and/or -manipulation- is taking place here ? Add the derivative notional volumes. How "real" or how "virtual" is all this !?

And more (most) important : How do we maneuver (manage) us out of this ? In total destruction or through managed transition !? Yes Knallgold, imo, for the time being...I still see a managed transition happening. I don't see anyone (deliberately) manipulating the whole planet into cataclysm. But,...that does not implicitely means that the fully paperized $-IMS can be "sanitized"...made healthy again !

The $-IMS' efforts to make the global economy expand, are failing because of the absurd state of paperization. Snow & Greenie, even wish to start $-paperizing Asia (China in particular). AA initiatives ($-IMS) to bring the ME + Eurasia into the global economic equation, will fail (are failing) too ! And one cannot start questioning the $-system for the failures, without having an appropiate alternative on its feet. But on these matters, you already know my lilliputan opinion.




Topaz
(10/20/2005; 05:31:55 MDT - Msg ID: 137054)
Management.
Those with eyes can see the "management" right in the here and now.
Bond Price softens to -12 ...Buck in 2 minds whether to ratchet higher to compensate, as that could sound the death nell on SM.
Oil rises to unch.
Gold rises to force Bucks Hand.

Management of the "other" kind ...or Post New-Paradigm Paradigm?

Watch closely as they resolve this stand-off.
Belgian
(10/20/2005; 05:47:52 MDT - Msg ID: 137055)
@mas
W. Buffet : Gold has no utility (!?) > Maybe one should think a little bit or much) further as to what mister Buffet's "role-function" exactly is in the $-financial system. I'll abstain from this for not being labeled as an inconoclast. But when a person (icon) of such fabricated status, says that gold has no utility...then you better keep watching out !

mas
(10/20/2005; 06:33:15 MDT - Msg ID: 137056)
Agree
Belgian, I agree. Just noted the article on gold stock's and as I haven't seen the main news players ever come up with gold stock's I posted. But yes you are right, they always do have their own style of "spinning" things, don't they. Listen to the jokers on CNBC, what nonsense, (getting rid of this and rid of that, might as well close down Delphi, imagine how much you can save then).
Socialism/Capitalism, okay. But what about all these people on the street after all these CEO's are finished? Need to open markets. To what? Abuse? Free trade they say, yeah right, better yet just move your money value and wallah presto it's fixed!

Sorry but by the way Allah and God are the same, no difference means the same.

Is that a light coming at us the light at the end of the tunnel or ????
monTROZ
(10/20/2005; 07:05:00 MDT - Msg ID: 137057)
U.S. Government Debt
http://www.publicdebt.treas.gov/opd/opdpenny.htmHas anybody else noticed or heard a reason why the U.S. Treasury has stopped reporting the total debt?
On the website "The debt to the penny" they usually report a day behind. The last day reported is last Friday. They're three days late now. Running at 5 billion per day it should be over 8 trillion. My guess is they want to manage the news, drop the price of gold and silver hard before releasing the data.
OvS
(10/20/2005; 07:47:26 MDT - Msg ID: 137058)
Knallgold
My Scottish Deerhound is dieing.
I ease his pain with shots of
morphine now and then 'til she
fades away. In the meantime I'm
feeding her puppy to grow up and
to help keep the burglars outside
the gate...

Otto von? The last time I tried to
answer cobra's same question my
post was immediately "eliminated".

Survival, no matter what.
International pokergame.
Sainthood.
Usw.
Choose your model. But if you "make"
me choose just one hue and defend
it against all commers and under all
circumstances, I don't think you
are a wise or good man.
Paradox ueber alles.
(All meant in a friendly spirit).OvS
OvS
(10/20/2005; 08:01:47 MDT - Msg ID: 137059)
Trillionometer
monTROZ. If that counter is
stopped, no problem. Just
put those 5 billion increase
a day on a logarithmic scale
and you'll have it graphically
visible.
And remember, soon, we'll adopt
the British trillion. Ours has
12 zeros, theirs 18. Cheers.OvS
Druid
(10/20/2005; 08:43:25 MDT - Msg ID: 137060)
@BB or anyone else....

Druid: ...that might offer an explanation. BB, according to the EIA, our natural gas inventories appear to be rising even after all of the hurricane destruction that has been done to our physical infrastructure, how is this happening?
Black Blade
(10/20/2005; 09:41:31 MDT - Msg ID: 137061)
Re: Druid - NatGas
http://americanoilman.homestead.com/GasStorage.html
A 75 bcf build in storage is not all that much even considering the loss of most GOM natural gas production. It is merely a number that beat "analysts expectations". The �consensus expectation" was for a build of 67 bcf so this is really nothing but spin. Also, a good amount of demand was lost following Katrina-Rita. However, the GOM produces 8% of US supply. I would not put it past the EIA to monkey with the data either. They simply reclassified over 82 bcf from "base gas" to "working gas" earlier this year. Sometimes the EIA makes a "guess" when there are reporting problems as they did following the recent hurricanes that slammed into the GOM. They also make "guesses" on line pack and put that into the storage data. I am sure that there is a lot of pressure to have the "messenger" paint a rosy picture as well or at least to spin the story.

It should also be noted that at the beginning of the injection season many were talking of a glut of natgas. Now we are inline with the so-called "five year average". That takes into serious demand destruction and fuel switching. If this week's injection number is the best we can muster then we had better watch out if this winter is normal or colder than normal. I do not see Americans turning off the furnace and freezing in the dark this winter so consumer demand will bounce back sharply in the next few weeks.

It also helps the build in storage when the US economy begins to slump. Many industrial natgas consumers are either shut down, reducing operations or moving offshore (fertilizer companies, chemical companies, aluminum producers, etc.).

Meanwhile natgas production continues to decline at about 2.5% per year and this week the BLM changed the rules governing drilling to allow for easier permitting on Federal Lands and streamlined environmental studies. That would not happen unless there was a very real fear of a possible shortage down the line.

On a side note I am still long on precious metals, industrial commodities, and of course energy (primarily energy royalty trusts). I did my part for America's energy needs by bringing in two natgas wells this week and another one will come in by this weekend. ;-)

Sorry I haven't been here at the Round Table much lately as the energy patch is on fire (figuratively speaking of course) so I have been a little busy.

- Black Blade
Clink!
(10/20/2005; 11:13:37 MDT - Msg ID: 137062)
Zen and the Art of Systemic Risk
If I might take a leaf out of Robert Pirsig's excellent book, I would like to relate a (true) story.

In the late '80s, I took my parents on a trip in the mountains behind Nice on the Cote d'Azur. The descent into Sospel is one beloved of Tour de France watchers, but it turned out to be the kiss of death for the electronic module of my car's ignition system which suddenly coughed and died. We coasted downhill for several miles until we ground to a halt about 2km outside of town. Walking into the center, we ascertained that, at 5:30 on a Sunday evening, there were no buses, taxis or trains to be had. We managed to call a friend, who called another friend who came to rescue us. The next day, I borrowed a car, went and got some spare parts, and went and fixed my car. The comment from the car dealer when I returned the parts I had not used was that the bit that went was usually extremely reliable. "Hardly see any of those failures."

What he said was possibly very true, but I submit that, as far as my sample size of one was concerned, the failure rate was 100% (!) If I had had a more conventional setup, with a contact breaker, I would have had to have replaced the points every, say, 50,000km, but I would have, in most probability, have had some inkling - difficulty in starting, poor gas mileage, rough running, etc - that something was amiss.But the designers of the system, the car manufacturer, was looking at things on a more global basis. In all fairness to them, the overall reliability of cars now is light years ahead of, say, the 60s.

Fast forward to Refco in 2005. It strikes me that in our highly derivatized world, the overall reliability of the financial system might well be much higher than it used to be. The risks and liabilities are more carefully balanced and calculated. The accounts are updated in real time. But it also strikes me that if you have just one event which is not catered for in the calculation - and we still don't really know what it was in the case of Refco - the whole machine can just stop dead with no prior warning. Events such as criminal behavior (Enron). So was this just an isolated incident (in both the sense of a one-off event as well as not being interconnected with other institutions) or is the whole edifice about to fall down ? Will the stutter from the engine turn out not to be the ignition but some dirt in the fuel which is just blown through an injector, allowing us to carry on home, or will we be left stranded at the roadside ? And do we have a friend we can call ?

C!

PS. That last question was, of course, rhetorical - the number is on this page !
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(10/20/2005; 11:44:22 MDT - Msg ID: 137063)
Turn the seasonal fruits of your labor into timeless value!
http://www.usagold.com/gold-coins.html

sovereigns

Harvest Time
Whatever it is that you may have sown,
we'll give you the power to reap GOLD.

1-800-869-5115
USAGOLD-Centennial has three decades of experience in the field

Shermag
(10/20/2005; 11:44:59 MDT - Msg ID: 137064)
Druid, your natural gar infection enquiry
This may shed some light:

"The Fed also noted that the hurricanes' damage to the energy complex has begun to spill over into other industries, notably chemical manufacturers.

Immediately after Rita, the Fed noted, 90% of the region's chemical plants were closed, creating a drop in demand that permitted normal storage injections. As the chemical plants re-open, the Fed said, they are having trouble obtaining gas as a feedstock.

"A lack of basic inputs is keeping a number of chemical plants on partial or complete shutdown," The Dallas Fed said. "Contacts say the actual damage to these plants is not serious. The system is unbalanced for a number of products, pushing up costs and prices."

According to the Dallas Fed, the situation has pinched chemical supplies and chemical manufacturers are raising prices and rationing production on products such as ethlyene propylene and a host of plastic products."


Shermag
(10/20/2005; 11:46:56 MDT - Msg ID: 137065)
Oops
Natural gas injection, I meant to say.
OvS
(10/20/2005; 12:18:27 MDT - Msg ID: 137066)
Warren Buffet
That 1998 statement was very funny.
But, if he didn't know then, he
knows now: Gold is a statistically
proven hedge against the US dollar.
He knows that unlike all other
reserve assets it is no country's
liability and therefor cannot be
cheapened by any country's inflatio-
nary policy.
Because, why would he otherwise take
the lion's share of 20 billion dollars
and buy gold-linked Euros?

Gold has no utility?

I guess he doesn't use a telephone or
cell-phone, no computer nor a refridge
or washing machine. Just in case, let
us remind him that gold is used in:

Spacecraft
Satellites
DVD's
CD-R's
Fuel-cells
Airpurifiers
Wires for pacemakers
Odor purifiers
Goldplated stents to inflate
and support bloodvessels
In the production of hydrogen
peroxide
Crash-sensors for airbags
Electric fuel injectors
Anti-lock brakes
Ignition controls
Dental crowns & bridges(to 70%)
Hydrogen purification
Golden middle ear implants
Gas-mask catalysts
Water gas shift catalysts
Production of propene oxide
Gold foils in drinks & on food
with claimed health benefits
(Japan, Germany, etc.)
Anti rheumatic & arthritic
braclets (India, Asia)
Smart cards
Gold electrodes & reservoir caps
in drug delivery micro-chips
Mercury emission control
Etc.
Etc.
Etc.
Yes, platinum and paladium can and
are used, but so far they are much
more expensive and gold can operate
on much lower temperatures. Yes,
silver is sooo much cheaper but also
operates on higher temperatures and
often is too wildly reactive for
many processes.

Above items consume about 12% of gold.
But are expanding rapidly. And, for
Christ's sake, I forgot nano technology.
Nano sensors, nano connectors, nano
optical active material, nano filter;
Go nano technology go.

Of course, the macro use is jewelry.
No utility? Warren, don't let your wife
hear about your statement. Nor let other
upper and middle females find out. You
deprive them and a revolution is on your
hand.

Well, Mr.Buffet, maybe you can do without
gilted mirrors or gilted frames & gilted
domes but there are billions of people
who need their gilted religious artifacts.
And uncountable Indian women and Chinese
men, the Jewish mercantile class and
monarchists everywhere need the financial
security and stability of gold in an
ever changing turbulant world. Amen. OvS





YGM
(10/20/2005; 12:29:25 MDT - Msg ID: 137067)
Buffet & Gold
He's only been making a name for himself for maybe 20 odd years. Gold's reputation has been going strong for over 4000 years. I'll trust Gold, not some self serving comment from another paper pusher with an adgenda. Remember Martin Armstrong also tried his damndest to convince the world Gold was dead and a thing of the past. When they busted his penthouse suite they found a solid Gold bust sculpture and many, many thousands of dollars in Gold Bullion and Coins. Yeah right Warren, like you don't have your own secret Gold stashed away. Too silly a comment to even consider giving any credence...LOL
contrarian
(10/20/2005; 13:20:45 MDT - Msg ID: 137068)
XOM
Exxon seems to be imploding over past few days, and folks are not too pleased. Doesn't seem to be following the acceptable story line! XOM, of course, being a component of the Dow, could be the proverbial hole in the dike--and a thumb has just been removed!
TownCrier
(10/20/2005; 13:35:56 MDT - Msg ID: 137069)
Ovs, Buffett
Instead of his silly comment regarding all the hassle about holes in the ground, arguably, he could have as easily leveled his sentimental invective against our equally bizarre financial practice regarding dollars in which we print some up, lend it to folks who spend it away, and then make them toil to re-earn and return those dollars to the same place -- which would make a Martian scratch his head wondering why we don't just make life easier by printing up an extra batch of the repayment money to begin with.

That is to say, it would have been equally RIDICULOUS to say such a thing.

The world works as it does and these monetary affairs are sophisticated matters that don't lend themselves to such simple childish dismissals as the tale attributed earlier to Buffett.

If, indeed, the annecdote is true, then as Belgian indicated, we can be sure that an agenda is being pushed that requires a more open-eyed, read-between-the-lines sort of assessment. The calculated movement of a bishop meant to inspire the movement of pawns.

Instead, keep your eye on the Gold King and the deadly swift paper Queen.

R.
monTROZ
(10/20/2005; 14:05:09 MDT - Msg ID: 137070)
U.S. Debt
http://www.publicdebt.treas.gov/opd/opdpenny.htmO.k. So they updated the "debt to the penny" and:

10/19/2005 $7,999,843,352,310.27
10/18/2005 $8,003,897,406,911.24

Ding. 8 trillion. Gold and silver down, then recovered, awaiting spin. Not a problem?



TownCrier
(10/20/2005; 14:43:16 MDT - Msg ID: 137071)
Russia undecided on mineral limits for foreigners
http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh74412_2005-10-20_16-50-44_l20466095_newsmlMOSCOW, Oct 20 (Reuters) - Russia is still undecided on how exactly it would ban or limit involvement of foreign firms in mineral resources it considers of strategic importance, a government official said on Thursday.

"There is as yet no answer as to what these restrictions will be. The ideas under consideration range from reserving majority control for Russian firms to a complete ban on the involvement of foreign investors," Deputy Economy Minister Andrei Sharonov told reporters.

The idea emerged after President Putin called on the government earlier this year to tighten the state grip over strategic resources.

...the Resources Ministry wants the rule to apply to many of Russia's prize natural assets, including a list of oilfields ... as well as Sukhoi Log, Eurasia's biggest gold deposit, and the Udokan copper field.

^----(from url)---^

Gold -- a resource of strategic importance.

All gold ever mined, if evenly parcelled out, every living human being would get the approximate equivalent of only three gold sovereigns -- nickel-sized coins.

How well do you measure up across the board? Is your family's savings strategically reliable?

Call USAGOLD-Centennial for an attainable lion's share while the metal remains cheaply below the investment world's radar screens which are filled with paper promises aligned precariously like dominoes in row upon pretty row as a testiment of self-congratulation.

R.
OvS
(10/20/2005; 14:51:16 MDT - Msg ID: 137072)
Correction
In my last post, the last
sentence, instead of "need"
I meant to say that the
mentioned groups "chose
for thousands of years"...
TownCrier
(10/20/2005; 14:58:18 MDT - Msg ID: 137073)
Rogers fund halts Oct 31 redeptions due to Refco
http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh72855_2005-10-20_15-53-38_n20537083_newsmlNEW YORK, Oct 20 (Reuters) - Managers of a fund that tracks a commodities index created by investor Jim Rogers said on Thursday it was unlikely to immediately process any redemptions as nearly two-thirds of its assets are held by a unit of Refco, the troubled brokerage.

Walter Price, a managing member of Beeland, said in a letter to the fund's investors that it was unable to provide an accurate value of fund units because of Refco.

In Refco's bankruptcy filing this week, the fund was listed as a creditor with claims of $75.2 million. Another Beeland-managed fund, the closely held Rogers Raw Material Fund, has claims to $287.4 million, court filings show.

Price expressed hope the assets of the international fund can be returned, but acknowledged the assets may be tied up in bankruptcy proceedings for some time.

"We are as shocked as we're sure you are by the disclosure of misconduct, the incredibly rapid deterioration and subsequent bankruptcy of Refco," he said.

^---(from url)---^

The tipping of dominoes.

Contract-based positions, built upon leverage and counterparty risk, jump up and bites someone in the hindquarters, and investment managers, so-called "professionals", claim to be shocked by that happenstance???

We knew the danger all along. Choose solid gold. Call USAGOLD-Centennial today for a consultation.

R.
MK
(10/20/2005; 15:13:27 MDT - Msg ID: 137074)
Revisiting Gold Forecast 2005
http://www.usagold.com/AMK/Forecast2005.html
I thought it might be interesting to revisit my gold forecast for 2005 published at the beginning of the year. At the moment I recommend buying the dips if you are already an owner and simply expanding your holdings. If you are goldless, you will need to become an owner and the price should not be an issue. Nothing has changed. This forecast pretty much speaks for itself.

_________

Gold Forecast 2005
by Michael J. Kosares

Author: The ABCs of Gold Investing - Protecting and Building Your Wealth with Gold

"There were (latest estimates) 116,000 human deaths due to the tsunami. But where were the animals? An Associated Press official flew over Sri Lanka's Yala National Park in a helicopter. He saw abundant wild life, crocodiles, wild boars, elephants, even leopards. Said a hotel keeper who's hotel was destroyed, 'This is very interesting. I am finding bodies of humans everywhere, but I have yet to see a dead animal.' My dogs get spooked before thunder or a big storm, long before I sense it. It seems almost all the animals sensed the coming tsunami and headed for higher ground." Richard Russell, Dow Theory Letters

I foresee two potential scenarios for the gold market in 2005. One involves a see-saw market which culminates with a roughly 20% gain on the year in keeping with the average over the last three years. This would take gold to the $525 level. The other involves a substantial price spike resulting from an uncontrolled deterioration in the value of the dollar. In that scenario, gold would threaten and probably exceed the $600 level. I give the first scenario about a 75% chance of occurring; and the second about a 50% chance of occurring. I do not envision much downside in gold, and if it does fall I expect the recoveries to be quick and complete.

With respect to the first scenario, now that we have three years of history in the currency wars to examine, we can surmise from the market evidence that the G-7 countries have agreed to manage the dollar's fall within a band. In other words, Europe and Japan agree that the dollar must fall, but all parties want the fall to be orderly. What some have missed in their analysis -- and this important to forecasting the gold price -- is that in order for the dollar decline to produce the desired results, it must be engineered over a period of years. It's not like waving a magic wand-- the dollar falls and all's well. In reality, industry will need years of a weak dollar to deliver results.

Note: This analysis does not take into account an exogenous shock like a major gold supply disruption, nor does it take into account a major terrorist attack in the West or negative political event in one of the primary oil producing nations like Saudi Arabia, Iran or Iraq.

The gradualist scenario aside, there is another, much more troubling possibility. This scenario starts with the fact that the manufacturing sector within the United States is in decline and has been for a very long time. The devaluation medicine (weak dollar policy) described above is aimed at buttressing an old economy, one that does not exist on the scale it did when Richard Nixon launched the U.S. dollar devaluation policy in the 1970s. In other words, dollar devaluation might not cure what ails the American economy. The United States could very well continue on a track where exports increase, but imports increase at a faster rate simply because the nation no longer possesses the manufacturing capacity that would benefit from the weaker dollar. This, in fact, would be the worst-case scenario for the dollar. It would signal that the trade and fiscal deficits are likely to continue growing at an alarming rate -- a circumstance that could by logical extension usher in an inflationary depression.


What might this mean for the dollar, gold and the U.S. economy?


First, the obvious weaknesses in the policy could encourage a major speculative attack against the dollar which might send gold well over the $600 mark, and under such circumstances there may be nothing to stop it there. This attack could be launched at any time the way George Soros and friends took down the British pound -- a largely forgotten event which illustrates the power that can be summoned by internationally based capital funds. In other words, the G-7 strategy described above could be overwhelmed by the hedge funds and other powerful speculators who in effect smell blood in the water and move in for the kill.


Second, the United States under extraordinary stress would be likely to lobby G-7 for a wider band in an effort to make the policy work. Such a development would amount to a rewrite of the 1970s and a loud echo of the 1997 Asian contagion experience -- the inflationary depression mentioned above only this time it would occur in the world's largest and most important economy. Under these circumstances, the U.S. economy could disintegrate in waves of stagflation -- rising unemployment, mortgage defaults and bankruptcies coupled with double digit inflation, stock market collapses, financial sector breakdowns of every description (including systemic breakdown) and eroding balance sheets across the boards for both businesses and individuals. In other words, the worst case scenario.

I remind the reader that I favor the gradualist scenario as the most likely, but the economy doesn't always respond to the well-laid plans of the policy-makers. No matter which of the above scenarios unfold, or even if something totally unforeseen should occur (as it has so often in the past), remember that physical gold remains the best defense. These are dangerous times and investors should not delude themselves that somehow this is all going to resolve itself politely and positively. Like the animals in the Richard Russell vignette above, perhaps we should heed the warning signs and seek the high ground.
USAGOLD Daily Market Report
(10/20/2005; 15:19:16 MDT - Msg ID: 137075)
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THURSDAY Market Excerpts

October 20 (from Reuters) -- Gold futures in New York fell on Thursday, reaching a one-month low on a settlement basis, hit by speculative selling and profit taking after gold's recent surge to 18-year highs, dealers and analysts said.

COMEX December gold contracts lost $2.60 to finish at $463.20.

Liquidation and profit taking by funds and speculators shoved prices lower after the COMEX market became technically overbought in the recent rally, while some traders saw lower crude oil and a firm dollar as a signal to sell. "I still think there's interest in being long gold, but I wouldn't be surprised to see gold go back toward the $450 area" where bargain hunting should offer strong support, said David Rinehimer, head of commodities research at Citigroup Global Markets.

Nonetheless, many in the market feel that growing concerns about inflation and U.S. economic growth should help gold rally up toward $500, a key psychological level, in the near-term.

Ian Telfer, the CEO of Goldcorp Inc., North America's fifth-largest gold producer, reiterated in an interview on Thursday his view that gold will hit $500 by year-end and $800 within two years.

---(see url for full news, 24-hr newswire, market quotes)---
TownCrier
(10/20/2005; 15:45:31 MDT - Msg ID: 137076)
Russia finmin sees 4 percent yearly rise in rouble
http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh73338_2005-10-20_16-08-49_n20666707_newsmlNEW YORK, Oct 20 (Reuters) - Russia's currency should appreciate around 4 percent per year against a basket of euros and dollars over the next five years ... Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin predicted on Thursday.

...As for annual inflation targets, Kudrin said his goal was to keep prices rising within a band between 4 percent and 5 percent until 2008.

..."There will be fewer players making a buck through exchange rate fluctuations," he said.

Starting 2007 the government will put no more limitations on capital inflows and outflows, allowing the markets to dictate the strength of the economy, Kudrin said, "that will allow the ruble to stabilize," he added.

^---(from url)----^

With a monetary target in which the price of tangibles rise against the rouble by 4-5 percent even as the rouble rises against the euro-dollar basket by 4 percent, it seems to suggest, by the transitive property, that a significant amount of tangible price inflation will be in store for the dollar world and, to a lesser extent, the euro world. (The rouble unit's currency basket is comprised of 35 euro cents and 65 U.S. cents.)

Choose gold, a strategic tangible asset.

R.
contrarian
(10/20/2005; 16:14:49 MDT - Msg ID: 137077)
Re Gold forecast
I tend to go with scenario that it will be difficult if not impossible to revitalize manufacturing sector. Those jobs are gone for good I would say. It's difficult to give a "spoonful of sugar", however bitter, to a corpse, and expect it to jump out of the casket!
TownCrier
(10/20/2005; 16:18:07 MDT - Msg ID: 137078)
What's in a name? Reputation, say Refco watchers
http://today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=reutersEdge&storyID=2005-10-20T151931Z_01_KWA055069_RTRIDST_0_PICKS-FINANCIAL-REFCO-NAME-DC.XMLNEW YORK (Reuters) - Before the company's troubles were revealed last Monday, Refco was one of the biggest market makers for commodities and financial futures, allowing funds and companies to trade contracts on commodities, bonds and currencies.

The Germans have a word for taking pleasure in the misfortune of others, which is difficult to pronounce but comes to mind when you listen to brokers, traders and investors talk about Refco Inc.

Like the word "schadenfreude," the name Refco was not commonly heard in American households until last week. But in the commodity pits in New York and Chicago, the one-time futures powerhouse which spiraled into bankruptcy on Monday was well known, if not widely loved.

"We don't (clear through them) because we don't really like them. I'm hearing that from everybody actually," said a commodities trader and analyst at a major hedge fund, who wished not to be identified for this article. "What I keep hearing is that, (the collapse is) surprising, but if it was going to happen anywhere, it would probably be there."

...Customers, from individual investors to big hedge funds, gravitated to Refco in part because of its sheer size and market power.

Still, even in what can look like an honor-among-thieves world in the pits, where traders rowdily pick each others' pockets, buying and selling to set prices on commodities and financial derivatives, Refco stood out for having numerous scrapes with regulators and clients over the years.

Refco was fined $250,000 by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange in 1979 for record keeping violations. In 1994 it was fined $1.25 million for using customer funds, which are supposed to be segregated from its own monies, to pay down loans on its books.

The Commodity Futures and Trading Commission also ordered Refco to pay $7 million in 1999 for failing to comply with rules on order taking and record keeping of customer orders, and failing to investigate indications of improper handling of trades.

...First Lady Hillary Clinton had made almost $100,000 in 1978 and 1979 trading cattle futures through Refco.

...Refco has agreed to sell its futures trading business ... for $768 million to a group led by private equity fund J.C. Flowers & Co. LLC., run by former Goldman Sachs partner Christopher Flowers.

Flowers said he was approached by Refco in recent days as the firm faced collapse.

It is not clear whether he plans to keep the name Refco.

"It wasn't that great of a name to start with and now you have this," the hedge fund trader said. "I don't think they are going to keep the name."

^----(from url)---^

You can superficially change logos on the letterhead, but a turd by any other name stinks just the same.

Think again before you commit hard-earned funds to the oftentimes sleezy world of futures trading and some of its notorious agents.

Choose to steer clear of the muck-filled pits. Aim for a foundation and reputation as good as solid gold.

R.
mikal
(10/20/2005; 18:23:45 MDT - Msg ID: 137079)
Rays of light, beyond the veil
N.Y. Stock Options Expiration Day is tomorrow.
Bush administration indictments may
effectively serve as counter-leverage by global
bodies to exact concessions on trade, environmental
and monetary policies.
U.S. Treasury bonds(especially 10 yr) struggle
"to the death" is underway at closer and closer range
for key rate levels.
Grass roots America appears to have been transformed
into a more politically and socially conscious group
capable of supporting unprecedented and/or expansive governmental action, fueling inflation and
straining socia stability.
"Early warnings" from economists, bankers and governmental officials come later and later.
David Linkley
(10/20/2005; 18:41:42 MDT - Msg ID: 137080)
Incestuous profits
As usual Goldman Sachs And JP Morgan booked great earnings reports due to successful "trading activities". How nice would it be to know in advance what the Feds wanted to do and then supplied you with the money to accomplish it. As a long-time professional I have never witnessed the level of corruption that now exists on Wall Street. Each administration keeps pushing the envelope further and further in market interventions and subverting the US Constitution. Refco stinks to high heaven and may be the tipping point for the US markets. Make no mistake, the first derivative fuse is now lit and our markets are in for a wild ride. The Fed has no choice but to print to shore up an increasingly fragile financial system. Tape, bandaids and glue may hold us together for a little longer but I believe in the first quarter of next year when Greenspan leaves, the dam will once again break loose. Holders of trillions of dollars worldwide will accelerate their purchases into gold and other hard assets and a currency crises is a very real danger. Unfortunately we now have one of the dimmest bulbs ever sitting in the White House with some of the lowest approval ratings ever and possible indictments pending. It's just a matter of time before a rogue event maybe unknown to most of us hits and pushes The US economy over the edge. Gold sure looks like a bargin in the fall of 2005.
The Invisible Hand
(10/20/2005; 18:53:06 MDT - Msg ID: 137081)
A sign?
http://financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htmWhy is it that Puplava doesn't comment on today's market.
He writes the Wrapup himself, but no comment on today's market. Or should I buy new glasses?
mikal
(10/20/2005; 19:33:10 MDT - Msg ID: 137082)
@Druid, MK, TC
Druid - Re: msg 137041 - "...the Great Scramble."
The Elliot Wavist Prechter is calling for a SM crash
by Halloween which will take down PM's. Good to hear from
those here without scrambled eggs for brains.
MK - Your essay sounds as fresh as the day it was written.
Always look forward to your frequent additions as well.
TC - Keep up the good show of gold-related news and commentary. Getting to be like a meteor shower every day here.
Re: Russia - She seems to carry on as though it were business as usual although the Ruble stays OFF most radar screens, out of the headlines and off our minds. With a relatively low world profile vs other currencies and invisible compared to the "Cold War" prominence she shared with China.
But I suspect she is poised to regain
stature and investment inflows, as continued elimination
of communist central planning, still somewhat institutionalized with Putin, gains momentum.
Much progress has already been made and could pick up steam with the help of the euro, her natural and human resources and changing internal and external imperatives.
David Linkley
(10/20/2005; 20:51:17 MDT - Msg ID: 137083)
Gold and the typical American
I have many conversations daily with people scratching their heads trying to choose the best investments. When I mention gold the two most frequent responses I receive are a nod (with a puzzled look) followed with a mutter or Maybe I need to be in real estate. Gold has risen from the mid $200s to $480 over the past several years with almost no public involvement and heavy central bank sales. Only recently is gold being mentioned positively as a viable alternative currency by mainstream Wall Street firms. Lately Morgan Stanley, Citigroup and Oppenheimer have written bullish pieces on gold raising price targets and pointing out possible upside catalysts. Right now gold has a total world market cap of approximately 1-1/2% out of 100%. During extended periods of world conflict and stress it is typical for gold to reach at least 25% of the total world market cap. Do the numbers, it's hard to find a lower risk more fudamentally sound story than gold. Just wait until the average American gets excited.
Druid
(10/20/2005; 21:46:56 MDT - Msg ID: 137084)
@BB
Druid: BB, thanks, as always, for your detailed and well explained response to my question earlier today. I'm caught up in a natural gas play and wasn't quite expecting the numbers that were released this morning by the EIA. Sometimes I forget that the same entity that creates the inflation isn't going to forthright in letting you in on the act. Whoooo that Maynard had it right about not figuring it out. And many thanks for doing your part in keeping some of our fellow Americans from completely freezing this winter and in the future. As for me, been trying to heed some of your advice and have amassed five pallets of firewood that I and a friend have cut up for the winter. Working on the other items. Stay in touch friend.
Sundeck
(10/20/2005; 21:47:42 MDT - Msg ID: 137085)
Sundry comments...
1. Refco. A fairly dramatic turn of fortunes, sure. My understanding that the trigger was the disclosure that the then chief executive (Bennett) had a hidden $430M loan from the company. Even though Bennett repaid the loan immediately, the damage was done. Loss-of-confidence set in and there was a run of clients to exit their positions with Refco.

However, this does not necessarily mean that all of Refco's operations are invalid trash. Loss-of-confidence can afflict any person, business or market with devestating effect. The danger in the present case is whether the perceptions can be contained. My feeling is that they will be. (This is not to say that there is not some rotton wood in the wider financial superstructure...)

2. Greenspan, Snow, Rumsfeldt in China. In my view, not since Nixon's visit to China in the early '70s has such a clear mood-swing been signalled. Sifting through the political hubris, the G20 gave the US political/financial/defence elite the opportunity to go somewhat "cap-in-hand" to their banker/competitor, to try to patch up a deteriorating set of "accounts", without appearing to be doing so to the domestic constituency (too much loss-of-face). Of course, Snow and Greenspan are right in calling for more domestic consumption by China...after all, what is the point of amassing wealth (surpluses) if one does not "enjoy" them individually and/or collectively. China's manufacturing juggernaught needs to more-and-more focus on domestic need to lift living standards in China towards parity with the rest of the world. The alternative is for the rest of the (globalised) world to trend towards living-standards in China. The USA, GB and Australia are consumer-junkies with huge balance of payments deficits and few levers available for turning-down domestic expectations.

3. Buffett and gold. No man can convince me that Warren Buffett is anything other than a remarkably shrewd, successful, modest, wise and (comparitively) honest investor. His comments on gold, too, are probably accurate...but they could have been made about CocaCola, or (See's) candies or half-a-dozen other businesses marketing individual and collective "delusion" of one form or another in which Buffett holds interests. His comments on gold probably more reflect the lack of transparency in the gold trade, the uncertain "overhang" of CB gold holdings and the political vagaries associated with gold, than any heart-felt or deep-seated predjudice towards the metal or the concept. After all, he does hold substantial jewellery interests which depend not-insignificantly upon gold (the metal)and public attitudes towards gold and its association with wealth and success and security.

Just my two cents worth...

:-)
Druid
(10/20/2005; 22:01:46 MDT - Msg ID: 137086)
(No Subject)
Druid: "Rock-n-Roll ain't noise pollution....." I'm trying not to be skeert r u skeert? You should be if ya ain't a bying gold bullion. Wassup with this Blackstone group? Is former Treasury Paul O'neal still with them along with Pete Peterson? Are they going to be helping the government of Dubai usher in a new gold paradigm? Exxon's stock appears to be having a bad case of the sell off's. Are counterparties trying to go to cash to cover, or like a currency under attack, is Exxon a prime target to take out the Dow?
Goldilox
(10/20/2005; 23:14:12 MDT - Msg ID: 137087)
Bird Flu Scare
Numbers published by CNN overnight said 61 people world-wide have succumbed to HN51 related illness in the last three years.

Ok, let's examine this. Out of a world population of 6 Billion, that comes to 10-7 PERCENT. I would venture a reasonable guess that more people died from direct lightning strikes in the entire world over the last three years.

Ok, we've got heart disease, myriad cancers, alcohol and tobacco poisoning, auto wrecks, etc., etc. - all of which kill MANY more people on a regular basis, but get little or no airtime or serious R&D money, unless they hold a telethon with stars and politicians begging the public to "give more". Even malnutrition kills millions, but unless you're hooked up with some religious charity, it is completely ignored.

Why the sudden moves to sell untested drugs to the government for mass distribution and remove legal liability in the process?

Might it have something to do with the VIOXX and other costly scandals in Big Pharma recently? This morning CNBC said that Pfizer reported great earnings but got clobbered in the pits, possibly because their pipeline is not looking so prolific. Well, what a boon to get your lobby-bought legislators to "guarantee" $Billions of sales of some flu drug placebo by media scare tactics.

Why do the real mass killers get little or no airtime? Because Big Pharma can't get rich "fixing" us by prescription, and they pay the campaign bills.

This whole Bird Flu scam is so completely transparent!

Before rushing out to get your shots, I recommend reading "Rainbow Six, by Tom Clancy.
Sundeck
(10/21/2005; 00:21:31 MDT - Msg ID: 137088)
Bird flu
@Goldilox #137087

I agree that issues like this (bird flu) can sometimes take on a disproportionately high profile in the media with sensationalism building upon sensationalism, and no doubt some of the drug companies are failing to dampen the hysteria, if not actively encouraging it, for self-interest.

However, I doubt that there is any collective conspiracy at play here....more likely just a "herd tendency" by the global human population.

The threat of one or other virus mutating to become particularly nasty for large human populations has been around since the dawn of agriculture; about 35,000 years ago. How many "threats" similar to the present one have gone un-noticed over the last several hundreds of years, simply because we have only recently developed the genetic understanding and technologies necessary to comprehend the detailed mechanics of the threat?

Migrating birds (the vectors of bird flu) are not something new. Neither is trans-continental travel by humans. However, I suppose the difference is that once a strain becomes readily transmissable between humans then it can be much more rapidly transferred worldwide than would have been the case 50 or 100 years ago.

My question would be: "Given that countries like China and India have had very large populations engaged in very intensive animal husbandry for hundreds of years, without mass annihilation from animal viruses, then what is so special about the present threat?"

Indeed, I agree with you, Sir Goldilox...tsunami, meteorite impact, earthquake, famine, malaria, TB and AIDS, to name a few, are probably far more important quantifiable threats...but perhaps not so trendy, and not so profitable as "selling drugs to the rich"!

I read somewhere that some unfortunate people (usually the elderly) are fed such a cocktail of modern "health preserving" drugs that their bodies are classifiable as "toxic waste"...all in the name of "profits" and "health care". A sorry, sorry state...

FWIW

:-)

Topaz
(10/21/2005; 02:51:28 MDT - Msg ID: 137089)
o'nite.
http://www.freebuck.com/today.shtmlThe Party is a bit late getting started Tonight with DX hovering lower.
Link shows quite vividly how Foreigners are placing the Locals at quite a disadvantage in Bond trading.

We'll see how today pans out.
Goldilox
(10/21/2005; 07:52:54 MDT - Msg ID: 137090)
Virus Hype
@ Sundeck,

The common cold has killed more people than the bird flu, yet after decades of suffering, no one has suggested a cure - only a multi-$Billion dollar market for "remedials". The "hype" is totally undue, not only at the media level, but especially in this lame-brain Congress. Sixty deaths in three years out of 6 Billion is one of the lowest measurable fatality rates one can find.

More people have died from the side-effects of Viagra than that, and the rate of injestion is still comparably low. Why no Congressional effort to stamp out killer "ED drugs"? In fact Mad Cow, which is no longer "in vogue" with the media has killed more people than HN51, as well.

In addition, studies of the 1918 pandemic lay the blame completely on WWI troop transport as the "vector". What does this President want to do? Move troops into affected areas. What are they gonna do? Shoot the virus, or the victims? Actually, they then become the vector agent!

We get wild-eyed stories about how the Thai killed 60,000 chickens to eradicate the disease. Did you know that San Diego County culled over 12 MILLION chickens in 2003 alone to eradicate Newcastle disease? Sixty thousand is "chicken feed" - bad pun!

There is no "miracle drug" for flu virus, Doctors offer the same advice they have for decades - isolate, drink fluids, and build your immune system. Big Pharma knows this, but is all over Congress looking for hand-outs and legal immunity. If you fail to recognize this, how can you in the same breath suggest gold price suppression? Conspiracy, in my dictionary, does not require a grand controller, only two or more parties in collusion.

WGN even ran a story about Kim Chee extract being fed to sick chickens and "curing" their HN51. Why, because one of the best anti-viral methods from "folk medicine" is to raise the body temperaure slightly with hot chili, as it mimics the natural immune system response of using fever to help fight infection.

Alkalize your body, eat healthily, and stay away from TV news! Big Pharma has much bigger financial fish to fry than curing your diseases. As Trudeau reminds us in his book, "Natural Cures They Don't Want You to Know About", every "cured ailment" is a lost customer to a Big Pharma teetering on stock market trouble.
Clink!
(10/21/2005; 09:29:05 MDT - Msg ID: 137091)
@ G'lox
Carry on posting like that and you will even get my wife interested in this Forum - heck, any excuse for a good curry !!! Now where are those chapatis ?

C!

PS. Not only that, but if she does saffron rice, it comes out a nice GOLDEN color.
Clink!
(10/21/2005; 09:41:44 MDT - Msg ID: 137092)
Speaking of which ....
http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/0975599518/ref=pd_ts_b_15/102-5790986-3974519?v=glance&s=books&n=1000My wife, that is. She bought 'Natural Cures "They" Don't Want You to Know About' by Kevin Trudeau. A snip from the review at Amazon gives ahint of thee bashing he gives Big Pharma.:-

Kevin Trudeau blows the lid off a nest of deception and double standards concerning general and individual health in this new book, "Natural Cures 'They' Don't Want You To Know About." Kevin has risked government prosecution to bring you the full story of an intricate conspiracy.

From the retail supermarket outlets of huge, publicly traded corporations comes processed, manipulated, engineered "food products" � produced by other wings of the same corporation. These artificial, toxic treats are then sold with the blessings of the Federal Trade Commission and Food and Drug Administration � government organizations charged with safeguarding the public good � laying the foundations for future disease and chronic ill-health for the consumer, and a guaranteed source of revenue for the medical and pharmaceutical sectors.

Kevin reveals the shocking truth of how drugs � which are being advertised directly to the consumer, pushing their use to an all-time high � are actually the cause of illness and disease climbing to near epidemic levels.

End snip.

Of course, like most people who write about this kind of thing, there is more than a whiff of zealotry in the prose, but there is a deal of difference between going all-out organic Vegan and visiting the fast food restaurant every night on the way home. There is an old Scottish saying " Use moderation in all things. Never drink whisky without water, and never drink water without whisky!"

Got health ?

C!
Druid
(10/21/2005; 09:56:53 MDT - Msg ID: 137093)
@Clink

Druid: Clink, in a centrally planned economy as opposed to a real "free" market economy, this is known as creating a demand for products and services.
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(10/21/2005; 11:01:43 MDT - Msg ID: 137094)
Immediately available online! Enter the gold market with grace and confidence.
http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html

Get a head start on the gold market!
The Hoople
(10/21/2005; 11:47:46 MDT - Msg ID: 137095)
Of "useful utility" and perceptions of it..
Gold just popped for the customary $6 collar. Maybe Jimmy Rogers just woke up and discovered at least one useful utility for it. He definitely discovered one useful utility for his Refco IOU's - substituting it for Charmin in the bathroom. So in essence Niederhoffer wound up picking Rogers pocket, it just took 8 years for him to discover it. Nice job regulators, bankers and auditors.
Goldilox
(10/21/2005; 12:38:14 MDT - Msg ID: 137096)
Gold $6 pop
@ the Hoople,

I'm assuming that the last week of "suppresssion" was to protect the gold equity derivatives, as two of my favorite miners settled right at options execution points yesterday - and this is a triple witching Friday.

Maybe not, maybe so.

Other analysts have noted that the miners are lagging the PMs, so let's see if that continues, or if the monkey is off their back once Oct options expire.

i.e. Goldcorp jumped $1 today.

TownCrier
(10/21/2005; 14:12:32 MDT - Msg ID: 137097)
Show us more petrodollars, Arabs tell Gulf firms
http://today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=reutersEdge&storyID=2005-10-21T051220Z_01_MOR118611_RTRIDST_0_PICKS-ECONOMY-ARABS-DC.XMLBHAMDOUN, Lebanon (Reuters) - ...With oil and share prices soaring in the Gulf, Arabs want to attract more petrodollars into their economies to help boost growth and create jobs. But investors say they need to deliver faster economic reforms and more liquid financial markets.

"Trying to attract more Gulf money has become something of a government policy in many Arab countries."

Gulf investors have been busy re-investing their bumper profits in other regions. Their impact is being felt in European investments and in mergers and acquisitions markets.

Some Gulf investors have also pulled cash out of the United States, since the September 11, 2001 attacks, and sought investment opportunities closer to home.

Yet apart from buying real estate and telecom assets, the Gulf's petrodollars are still chasing few assets in the Arab world...

"There is plenty of cash from the Gulf to be invested in the Arab world," said Gregory Kronsten, emerging analyst at WestLB in London. "But the question is what to do with it."

^----(from url)----^

With many dollars to be rid of, the November opening of the Dubai gold market will likely be very warmly supported.

R.
R Powell
(10/21/2005; 15:05:05 MDT - Msg ID: 137098)
Black Blade
Congrats on bring in the wells!
And to all...happy weekend, and a World Serious one at that..!!
TownCrier
(10/21/2005; 15:19:17 MDT - Msg ID: 137099)
As oil riches gush, sheik loosens his grip on economy
http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/05294/592782.stmOctober 21, 2005
The Wall Street Journal
ABU DHABI, United Arab Emirates --

...the massive flow of revenue following the 1973 oil-price surge ...... With plenty of cash still left over, Abu Dhabi in the 1970s and '80s funded development projects elsewhere in the U.A.E. and overseas. It also funded the Bank of Credit & Commerce International, which collapsed in a cloud of scandal in 1991. Abu Dhabi owned at least 77 percent of the disgraced bank...

...The mess, he says now, taught Abu Dhabi an important lesson. "Investments can be a source of menace," he says. "We are very careful in that sense now."

^---(see url for article)----^

Good article on an increasingly important region of the world.

R.
USAGOLD Daily Market Report
(10/21/2005; 15:39:53 MDT - Msg ID: 137100)
Page Update!
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FRIDAY Market Excerpts

Gold rallies nearly $6

October 21 (from MarketWatch) -- "In true secular bull market fashion, gold has once again gone through a sharp and short correction in its 'two steps up, one step back' climb to $500," said Peter Grandich, editor of the Grandich Letter.

"Perceived negatives have no lasting affects and are eventually overcome to the upside -- leaving bears wondering what will it take to keep gold down," he said.

Indeed, gold prices climbed Friday despite strength in the dollar, which usually eases investment interest in the yellow metal.

COMEX December gold contracts closed at $469.10, up $5.90 for the session. But having lost $13.40 over the past three sessions, on the week it closed $2.70 below the week-ago close of $471.80.

Earlier Friday, gold prices had only been making modest gains. It logged the bulk of its climb for the session in the last hour of trading.

Overall, however, the "general sentiment is that the market sold off to far too fast and that too many uncertainties [are] looming right now," said commodities trader Kevin Kerr, editor of the Global Resources Trader investment letter, a service of MarketWatch.

"Gold is a lion and it's roaring higher -- these dips have to be seen as buying opportunities," he said.

Richard Au, a managing partner at Brick Capital Partners believes the "underlying strength of gold over the last 12-24 months ... has been a consistent factor of strong underlying physical offtake."

---(see url for full news, 24-hr newswire, market quotes)---
Topaz
(10/21/2005; 17:42:13 MDT - Msg ID: 137101)
Inside out day.
http://www.freebuck.com/today.shtmlJust when you think you've got it wired, they throw a day like today up and WHAM! ...back to the Drawing Board.

A Flash in the Pan? ...Probably.
spikedog
(10/21/2005; 18:48:58 MDT - Msg ID: 137102)
Gold's Price Swings
It seems that the amplitude of the daily price swings are getting bigger. Two questions: Is this my imagination? and did not Another or FOA mention that these price swings would get wilder as we got closer to freegold?
The Invisible Hand
(10/21/2005; 20:01:17 MDT - Msg ID: 137104)
When was the last time you saw these headlines?
http://news.independent.co.uk/uk/this_britain/article321425.eceThis is from tomorrow's (Saturday's) London The Independent

http://news.independent.co.uk/uk/this_britain/article321425.ece
Are we heading for a new winter of discontent?
Winter of discontent
[link to] Lights could be going out all over Britain when fuel shortage hits businesses
[link to] Livingstone warns of coldest season since 1963

Snip from "Are we heading for a new winter of discontent?":
Britain could be left paralysed by energy shortages, a health crisis and gridlock on the roads if the predicted Arctic winter strikes with severity.
Curious
(10/21/2005; 20:09:17 MDT - Msg ID: 137105)
Petroleum prices squeezing farmers out of business

The link below discusses a pending crisis and danger to our food supply. Farmers will not be able to qualify for loans for operating costs so that they can plant new crops next spring because the increase in fuel and fertilizer costs will exceed the already thin net profit and the farmers will not be able to borrow money to plant and will not be willing to work for nothing if they could borrow the money. Other businesses can pass on their costs to at least some degree. Farmers have no pricing power. Prices now received are similar to prices received 50 years ago yet the costs of fuel, equipment, fertilizer, and labor have increased exponentially. With no income, the existing loans can not be serviced and if numerous farms are forclosed, who will buy them if the economics will not cover operating costs? Banks could be bankrupted during the unwinding. By the time food goes up sufficiently to cover increased costs, it will be too late to plant. Is this the final disaster that causes the big depression that has been delayed for the last several years?

What is Congress doing about this coming catastrophy? I have heard nothing about anything proposed.

The pending hurricane in Florida could wipe out one half of the winter vegetable crop so the country will lose the crops and these farmers will be devastated by the losses to be incurred and will be financially unable to plant due to the storm impacts. If something drastic is not done soon, additional millions of people will be starving next year. The farmers do not have sufficient votes to protect their interests. Now if the eaters would wake up and demand relief so that they would have food to eat next year, maybe something would happen but I am not holding my breath.

I don't understand it. With all of the problems with the economy, the DOW,for example, is still over 10,000.

http://www.txfb.org/TexasAgriculture/2005/102105/102105opinions.htm

The Invisible Hand
(10/21/2005; 20:14:45 MDT - Msg ID: 137106)
Nobody's clever enough to fix it
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2099-1813695,00.htmlI snipped already last week-end from this article, but it will not harm to repeat:
Nobody's clever enough to fix it

Waiting for the lights to go out
SNIP
We've taken the past 200 years of prosperity for granted. Humanity's progress is stalling, we are facing a new era of decay, and nobody is clever enough to fix it. Is the future really that black, asks Bryan Appleyard.
The Invisible Hand
(10/21/2005; 20:31:10 MDT - Msg ID: 137107)
Is this guy saying that it is hedge funds which determine the POG?
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,8209-1834896,00.html
Snip:
Hedge funds now play a leading role in most financial markets and dominate some speculative ones. They probably account for a third of dealings on the London stock market, more in Tokyo, a little less in New York. Forget supposed gloom over interest rates. Caution among hedge funds, until the Refco affair has been worked out, is likely to have been the main cause of this week's renewed falls in Japan's and Europe's stock markets, and of currency and commodity trends softening.
==
The guy is saying that until the Refco-thing has been worked out, the trends in the commodity markets are softening. This implies that if there were no Refco-thing, the POG's trend would have been amplified (upwards). Is he saying that the hedge funds determine the POG?
David Linkley
(10/21/2005; 21:07:23 MDT - Msg ID: 137108)
The Invisible Hand
These times may seem like progress is slipping but in fact this happens on a regular basis in each century. I highly recommend reading "The Fourth Turning" by Strauss & Howe. We have entered a period where many of our systems that were designed for the 1940s & 1950s no longer satisfy our needs and we need to transition to new models. (i.e. Health care, education, energy, markets, etc.) These current systems are broken and will lead to major dislocations in society. The last three periods similar to this one - pre Revolutionary War, pre Civil War and pre WWII. The think of the transition from fossil fuels to ??? alone and how it will affect the economy. This period will last approximately 20 to 25 yaears. Nothing has been fixed for the past 20 plus years because no consensus can be reached. That will change when the $hit hits the fan.
contrarian
(10/21/2005; 21:08:19 MDT - Msg ID: 137109)
price spikes--spikedog
Yes, spikedog, on a message board I can remember about 2 years ago, note made of how we were entering a period of increased volatility--for example $8-10 price moves per day. Back then, it happened once or twice, then that behavior seemed to disappear--until this September, and since then, it's been more volatile, seesawish. I think they're starting to lose control over the price unlike back then. $500 will be like crossing the Rubicon, and all bets off after that point, as, historically, it really hasn't been above $500 much. In 79-81 it stayed above $500, and in 1983, it briefly touched $509, so, really one one substantial period, 79-81. So, just as $380 was really important, so $500 will be even more so.
The Invisible Hand
(10/21/2005; 22:45:36 MDT - Msg ID: 137110)
What do you mean? - How do you know?
David,

What do you mean? How do you know?

In order to answer these questions, you need principles which you have then to apply.

A quick review of the history of Western thought will suffice to bear out the constant presence of Plato's and Aristotle's philosophies. It is their philosophical starting-points which you need answer both questions.

The problem is that most intellectuals today, on the one hand, view Plato as interested in ideas and Aristotle as interested in things and that those intellectuals maintain, on the other hand, that Plato separated the Form from the objects of which it is the Form, whereas Aristotle argued that to the universal in the mind, there corresponds the specific essence in the object. Most intellectuals view thus the principles they need to answer the two questions as contradictory.

As long as no synthesis can be recognised between these two philosophical starting-points, the world is doomed.

Change, said you? Most people resist change and cling to systems that are now obsolete and may even be harmful. There is a healthy element in this conservatism. It protects that which exists. It guards against instability. But of course, some changes are desirable.

But in the age of Democracy, it's the majority which decides, and the majority is conservative.
Like Plato, the majority is only interested in Being. It was then up to Aristotle to introduce the notions of act and potency. A thing being X in act, but Y in potency. This, i.e., potency, is what makes change possible, but the majority doesn't understand possibility. It will only understand necessity.
mas
(10/22/2005; 00:09:12 MDT - Msg ID: 137111)
Inflation, lesson's learned from others?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4363616.stm

Zimbabwe frees trade in currency

The Zimbabwean dollar has plummeted in value this year
Zimbabwe's central bank is to allow the Zimbabwean dollar to trade freely, a move seen as a way to aid both exports and stocks of foreign currencies.
The move is also seen as a means to reduce the vast difference between the official and black market values of the Zimbabwean dollar.

The currency has been pegged against the US dollar for several years, recently at Z$26,000 per US$1.

The black market rate for the Zimbabwe dollar can be as high as Z$90,000.

Sky-high inflation

Under the new system, exporters will be allowed to trade 70% of their foreign currency earnings at the "market-determined rate", but 30% will have to be surrendered to the central bank, the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe.

The government hopes this will encourage businesses to increase exports.

Inflation in Zimbabwe is rampant, increasing by 360% so far this year, according to the government's own figures.

Analysts say the liberalisation of trading in the Zimbabwe dollar will initially further increase inflation, until the official and black market values move together.

"We should see the Zimbabwe dollar trading at around 60,000 (per US dollar) in the first week, while will be followed by a gradual depreciation to within parallel market levels, that's where it should settle," one Harare commercial bank told the Reuters news agency.

More....
Belgian
(10/22/2005; 02:30:10 MDT - Msg ID: 137112)
@TIH
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/images/orlandini102105a.gifI do enjoy when you cite the eternal wisdom of Aristotle and Plato. Keep on using it, whilst thinking about gold's future.

Your question about hedge funds and POG determination :

>>> Look at the LT POG chart (link) and zoom in on 2 very significant goldprice-pattern-periods :
- '94 > '96
- '98 > '02

In the first period, the goldprice got mega-attention from the working groups (Gibson paradox-goldprice-IRs) and POG's rise was deepfrozen and thrown into the abyss.
During the second period, exactly the opposite happened. Pog's decline was halted by other working groups (WAG) and has been lifted.

A very significant decade ('94-'04) for gold indeed. Fundamental significance that is ! Resulting into a change of the goldprice-behavior (present and future) after that two opposing gold-factions had a one decade s' fight on the goldprice 's *-function-*.

Many of those "funds" simply complied with the wisdom of those Aris and Platos. The many money(?)pools marched in lockstep and will continue to do so. Up to you to find out who whispers the...left,...right,...left...

Does it really matter to know exactly wich moneypool is doing what ...when we think w're getting closer and closer in our understanding of the Big (gold)picture ? I don't think so.

The 2 periods mentioned are NOT goldprice-patterns that expressed "free" market forces counting for gold as a commodity ! These two fundamentally significant periods (price-patterns) are the result of (undemocratic-political uncorrect-ect) actions ...manipulative deeds within the usual goldprice management history since 1971.

We all keep hyper focussing on all those "working-tools" that are supposed to affect the evolving goldprice (and its specific patterns - periods)...without recognizing that invisible hands (not yours) are behind a "change". Evolving change in gold-PRICING, that is ! The general public doesn't want to *recognize* this 2 specific periods of goldprice-patterns. That's totally irrelevant to them for the well known common reasons, of course.

Today w're still looking at the gold-PRICE as it is and fantasize about what the gold-PRICE should be...WITHOUT GIVING ANY *VALUE* TO GOLD'S FUNDAMENTAL UTILITY (Buffet !)

The faction that is working on the GOLD-Pricing change is maneuvering towards the true *VALUATION* of gold and away from the false "price" of gold...the virtual one. And this is the debate about the difference between price and VALUE.
Both, price and VALUE of gold have different (now opposing) utilities ! Buffet knew "exactly" what he was saying (yes sundeck)!!!
David Linkley
(10/22/2005; 09:00:10 MDT - Msg ID: 137113)
Need more reasons to own gold?
Social Security Administration statistics can paint a grim picture. Roughly 95% of Americans reach the age 65 dead or broke. Not living on the street broke but unable to enjoy much financial freedom after a lifetime of work. The moral of the story - if you want to be a part to the approximately 5% who enjoy financial freedom you must do what the other 95% don't. The path to financial success can take many roads but saving more and planning are at the top of the list. Just a thought, but what percentage of Americans over the successful 5% now own or are accumulating gold?
CoBra(too)
(10/22/2005; 10:40:27 MDT - Msg ID: 137114)
This Gold Bull is still "young"!

A Snip from the Privateer:

There are two major reasons for this. The first one is minor. It is the simple "conviction" still held by (at least) 95% of the investing public that Gold was in a bear market from 1980 to 2000 and remains in one to this day. They have simply not noticed the fact that in the four and a half years since April 2001, the $US Gold price has nearly doubled.

The second reason why Gold is NOT yet being considered a promising investment is the major one. The world has come through a quarter-century (since 1980) during which the money making opportunities were in financial (paper) assets. The production of "money" has been lauded to the skies . The production of WEALTH has been sneered at and so have its practitioners. For a quarter of a century, the very concept of the "debasement of the currency" has been seen, not as an economically-fatal expedient undertaken by desperate governments, but as the acme of "financial management". In financial markets, the past 25 years has convinced almost everyone involved with them that THIS TIME - finally and at long last - IT REALLY IS DIFFERENT.


Different it is - as it will eventually bury the Dollar Reserve Standard, together with IMF's and WB's SDR's as a cheap and cheat substitute for the reality of real value ... measurable over centuries in gold and silver coin, bullion and even its measurable dust...

Gold and silver - get you some is a must! cb2



Belgian
(10/22/2005; 14:18:06 MDT - Msg ID: 137115)
There will be NO gold bull (or bear) anymore !
What the planet called -money- up until now is in the process of being dismantled and transitioning in a modern unit of account, politically managed, with the parallel FREEGOLD that has severed all links with fiat currency !
Viva the BIS ! March 2003...from Swiss gold franc to "SDR" reserve-unit-of-account.
Topaz
(10/22/2005; 14:18:28 MDT - Msg ID: 137116)
Dollar, $Gold.
http://www.futuresource.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=GC&o=100/DX&a=D&z=610x300&d=LOW&b=LINE&st=Whilst Friday saw a welcome return to altDX/PoG divergence, (see Chart) the trend for Oct really indicates a return to the old Buck up, PoG down, Status-quo.

Why Buck drafted higher in US trading can probably be put down to a wave of Repats and Trader coat-tailing (as opined by Jesse) ...but the PoG spike? ...what the!!

Silver Deliveries keep trickling through and there seems to be some credence to the Oct Comex settlement Month theory whereby Au and Ag both go into Nov (a non-delivery Month) with a clean slate ...to get ready for the dual del Dec.

Given Comex' heavy hand in the PM's market this Year, if they can scrape through Oct, it won't bode well for PoG-PoS through November.

IMHO.
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(10/22/2005; 15:29:19 MDT - Msg ID: 137117)
USAGOLD-Centennial puts a world of gold at your fingertips
http://www.usagold.com/buy-gold-coins.html

gold -- a global calling card
Goldendome
(10/22/2005; 16:21:08 MDT - Msg ID: 137118)
Money talk

While scanning the radio dial, I landed on "Bob Brinker's Money Talk" just long enough to hear him espouse: That so long as a "responsible" individuel, such as Ben Bernancke, is chosen as Fed. chairman, we should not have to worry about a monetization of debt nor inflation moving, getting out of hand.

comment: Bob has never that I can recall, equated money creation with inflation. He accepts the CPI numbers without question, seems to me. I won't argue his results. I'm sure his calls on the markets have made him and his followers more money over the past twenty years, than my calls have made for me! But Bob -- Really!
RAP
(10/22/2005; 18:36:04 MDT - Msg ID: 137119)
Gold prices on weekends?
http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/blnus/08221701.htmWhat happens to spot prices when the price goes up in India?
Smeagol
(10/22/2005; 19:33:40 MDT - Msg ID: 137120)
What is Gold worth in India?
http://www.indiatogether.org/2005/jun/pov-chingpar5.htm
...well, Ssir RAP, the sspot price of It may go up in India while sstaying the same where you are (or even decline) as the world's floating paper currencies flap their worthless wingses, bouyed only by confidence...

sss... we wondered, and we did some looking...

Snip from article:
" Raghuram Lodhi, who is somewhere in the vicinity of 60, lives alone in a rented room at one end of the Asha Abhiyan's phase I area. (Asha Abhiyan is a slum development project, initiated in the early 1990s by Harsh Mander, then Bilaspur's Commissioner. It was reinitiated in Chingrajpara during his tenure as the Country Director of ActionAid India.) On the afternoon that I meet him, he is resting in the dim, dark fanless six-feet-by-six interior, listening to a rusty six year old transistor. After some coaxing he is finally persuaded by his neighbour Seeta Gupta (Slum Diaries II) to tell his meager tale.

Raghuram goes to work as a construction 'coolie' in the Sanichari, earning a daily sum of Rs 70. The figure he quotes is higher than the women at Sanichari for several reasons � chiefly his gender and the higher skill jobs available to him as a man. But on average he manages to find a day's work only about 20 days out of the month. Though Raghuram does not make the connection, there is one to be made. Although the casual labour market setup at the Sanichari does not guarantee a livelihood even to the young men that throng the chowk, it is easy to observe the casual ageism that pervades transactions there. The highest paid jobs, from offloading railway freight to transporting coal, are reserved for those with the brawn power for them. The earliest trucks that leave the Sanichari each day carry away the young.

Raghuram finances the slack with the surplus of the other days. His daily expense on a twice-a-day meal of rice and dal that he cooks himself comes to Rs 20-30. And then there is the monthly rent for the room. In all his years in Chingrajpara, Raghuram has not acquired a ration card."

Sss... let us put this in persspective... ten grams of It in India ssells for almosst 7000 Rs now. One troy ounce would be a year's pay for that Man... ach!...sss...count your blessings, precious, if you have any of It at all (shiver).

Precious is precious indeed.

S.


The Invisible Hand
(10/22/2005; 19:40:03 MDT - Msg ID: 137121)
What's the Refco-problem?
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,8209-1838363_1,00.htmlLast week-end, I was very happy with the Refco debacle. This week-end, it would appear that there was never a debacle.

SNIPS
The man aiming to cash in on Refco debacle
Wall Street banker Christopher Flowers reckons he can turn round the disgraced broker at a bargain price. By Dominic Rushe in New York
+
Back in 2000, the party's host, J Christopher Flowers, and Timothy Collins had bought Japan's troubled Long Term Credit Bank (LTCB) for $1.2 billion (�676m). Once one of Japan's most revered institutions, LTCB was sinking in a sea of bad loans.
+
On Wall Street, bankers have argued that the scandal is confined to Refco and is unlikely to have a wider effect on the market
+
"This is a garden-variety scandal. This kind of stuff just happens," said Flowers
Smeagol
(10/22/2005; 19:47:33 MDT - Msg ID: 137122)
Flipside - how much is Gold worth in America?

well, sss...ssomeone that makes 6 dollars (minimum wage) per hour can buy that ssame ounce of It (at 470 dollars an ounce) after working two 40 hour weeks and have change left for lunch...
...
...
...right now, in America, It... is EXTREMELY CHEAP!

S.
PRITCHO
(10/22/2005; 21:02:23 MDT - Msg ID: 137123)
@ How About Valid Comparisons ?
Smeagol (10/22/05; 19:47:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 137122)
Flipside - how much is Gold worth in America?

well, sss...ssomeone that makes 6 dollars (minimum wage) per hour can buy that ssame ounce of It (at 470 dollars an ounce) after working two 40 hour weeks and have change left for lunch...
...right now, in America, It... is EXTREMELY CHEAP!
-----------------------------------------------------------

Surely you meant to include : IF they don't EAT, DRINK,or require SHELTER?

Topaz
(10/22/2005; 21:06:40 MDT - Msg ID: 137124)
TIH... a Back-Burn?

TIH, As we approach the "Bush-fire Season", it may be prudent to carry out back-burning operations in an attempt to limit the devestation we perceive is ahead.

The risk of course is that our Back-burn may in fact ignite the condition we seek to neutralize.

In the current context, our Sacrificial Lamb (or Gorilla) is seen taking the blame for several market downturns when, in all probability, liquidations are buoying these markets and preventing/defering a much more pronounced melt-down.

It's not then entirely proposterous to conclude the Ogre would have in fact cleaned up were his positions permitted to trade out. IMHO.



Smeagol
(10/22/2005; 21:48:05 MDT - Msg ID: 137125)
On Increasing the Validity of Comparisons

Ssir Pritcho: "Surely you meant to include : IF they don't EAT, DRINK,or require SHELTER?"

no, we did not mean to include that... because we did not ssay the two weeks (perhaps we should have ssaid "two weeks equivalent") had to be done in one go... but we sees the way you took it and we fixes the...sss... missundersstanding and spells it out more clearly:

Approximately one year's wages in India for a "construction coolie" are required to buy an ounce of It... versuss approximately two week's wages in America for comparable work, assuming a 40 hour 5 day work week.

Better, precious? Yess...(grin)

S.
PRITCHO
(10/22/2005; 22:21:17 MDT - Msg ID: 137126)
Thanks Smeagol - - - - :)
Thanks for taking my post in good humour--your posts are Always worth reading.

I do think that someone on your minimum wage of $6 (shudder) is not a good example of a GOLD purchaser.The necessities of life would no doubt take precedence.(Its a disgracefully low wage for such supposedly a rich nation)

For what it's worth, here in Australia our treacherous little Gnome of a Prime Minister is trying to push through parliament, employment Laws to drastically lower Australian workers Wages & Conditions. No doubt they SEE the coming train wreck & are positioning Big Business to be able to employ at greatly reduced cost!

Thanks be I don't have to face that -but what about the younger ones -- including my still at school son?
PRITCHO
(10/22/2005; 22:48:06 MDT - Msg ID: 137127)
From Todays Privateer - - - TAX PROMISES etal
http://www.the-privateer.com/index.phpThe following "snip" is a summary - -In the letter he spells out in detail tax changes that have not even been discussed by the media in the USA (as yet) - -Also talks about there being at anytime soon a "distraction" of sufficient magnitude so that TAX will just be a byline - -
"think invasion of another Middle Eastern country - - -

SNIP:
The concentration on house building has caused a grotesque economic distortion of the entire US economy. The last five years have seen a US housing market blow-off in which house prices and the valuations of houses have soared upwards, as has total outstanding US mortgage and real estate debt.These now stand above $US 10 TRILLION! Mr Greenspan has been raising US interest rates since June 2004. This has had a perverse effect.For every one percent that mortgage rates climb and with $US 10 TRILLION in housing debts outstanding, the interest payable on such debt climbs by $US 100 Billion. The point is that so does the tax write-off of those paying the mortgages, simply because they can write this extra payment off their incomes. Under the present system, it is the US Treasury that gets it in the neck. It sees a diminished inflow of taxation as the climbing mortgage rates increase the American public's tax-write offs! The US Treasury also gets hit in the neck from the other side as these now higher interest rates crash into the Treasury's own close to $US 8 TRILLION in debt, forcing it to make higher payments to the holders of its debts. With that, the Treasury's own discretionary spending contracts.

Yet Another "Plan":

The President's tax panel has been busy. They are also discussing capping the US mortgage interest deductions at $US 350,000 (so that any amount of a mortgage above this sum cannot be used as a tax write-off) or limiting interest write-offs to 25 percent of income or adding a tax credit for mortgage interest so that all taxpayers would receive the same deduction. Whether the final outcome is Plan 1 (as already outlined) or Plan 2 as seen here, the economic end result is that the US Treasury will gain an increase in tax revenues. That is, of course, the real political purpose behind the tax plan(s). The purpose
is to give the appearance that the much vaunted cut in US taxes that President Bush has tried to ride to fame upon will still stand. And it will. But coming up unseen from behind are the changes to US mortgages. Once put in place, these will have the effect of INCREASING taxes. It is being done this way so that the President doesn't have to eat his words like his father did. Remember's Bush senior's: "Read my lips - NO NEW TAXES"? Bush junior is not doing that, he's merely lowering tax write-offs.

Go Into Debt And Cut Your Taxes:

That has been the generations-long enticement of the US credit pushers. As lenders, their purpose has always been to lure people into what they themselves call "productive debt". These are debts which gain the credit pushers themselves a constant stream of payments, fees, etc.. In that process, they have made millions of Americans into carriers of debt of a magnitude never before seen in American history and have changed these Americans from free and independent individuals into peons - carriers of debt beyond any human hope of repayment for the rest of their lives. That is how a new serfdom is arriving in the US as many millions are now to be ground between the millstones of taxation and debt.

All past economic and political history also shows conclusively that there has never been a nation which has managed to advance itself economically upon a human base of serfs. The freer the individuals in a nation, the more that nation advanced. A free nation offers real incentives for individuals to improve their lives by their own individual effort. Now, inundated with corrosive credit and toxic debt, Americans will discover the REAL economic state of their lives when the force five economic hurricane hits the shore.
Smeagol
(10/22/2005; 23:22:47 MDT - Msg ID: 137128)
On good examples

Ssir Pritcho: " I do think that someone on your minimum wage of $6 (shudder) is not a good example of a GOLD purchaser."

But precious... what IS a good example? Yess, the needful thingses do come firsst of course...ach! doesn't we know it! (cackle!)... but diligence, and perhaps sharing of housing with others, and 'living small' for a year or three CAN allow even a body in America on a minimum wage to buy that ounce one fine day (but maybe not for much longer?) versus one in India working a lifetime to do the same...yikes!... and BOTH will have a far greater appreciation for It than ssomeone who can buy kilos of It every month, or ounces on a whim.

It may be... that your son (and many other sons and daughters) will grow up in a world that reflects passt realities... not the fantasstic illusions we live by today...

S.
Smeagol
(10/22/2005; 23:54:36 MDT - Msg ID: 137129)
Ruminations of financial storms...

Ach, Ssir Pritcho, now we are in a blue mood with all the news (sigh)... feeling in our gut that a world-hurricane of financial Armageddon is coming... when all but the simplest of country folk will be caught... to hide or bide as best they can... it will be a dark time that sseems to go on forever as the winds of returning reality howl... some will have prepared, mosst not... either way many will not make it through the sstorm without sacrifice and loss, there are no guarantees outside of those the One gives... but it will pass, and the dawn will reveal a new landscape... many things will have forever passed or changed position... many values will change in the heart and in the world... many things that were worthless will have worth and things that seemed valuable will be worth much less... and we will go on, each of us... and build again, hopefully never forgetting the lessons that Man never sseems to live long enough to remember...

S.
contrarian
(10/23/2005; 01:30:58 MDT - Msg ID: 137130)
The Bush will be burnt
and thrown in the fire along with the chaff when the Harvester arrives...to fire up the forge...the forge where the Metal will be fashioned and hardened into coins of gold and silver, to be coveted by the impoverished masses.

The Wizard as well will be burnt at the stake as the unforgivable abomination for all to see. He and his wicked works will be reduced to ashes. The foul and unspeakable creature he created on Jekyll Island will be exposed to the light and shunned by all who see, to then be consigned to the darkest pit in Hades, never looked upon again.
PRITCHO
(10/23/2005; 02:09:35 MDT - Msg ID: 137131)
Off Subject - - - Acetone In Fuel Said to Increase Mileage
C:\Documents and Settings\XP\Desktop\6900069_Acetone.htmIs there anyone out there that knows anything about the above subject? Reading at this link certainly does look interesting especially the claimed mileage performance.

If any have tried I'd be very interested in their experience. Aso -there's a product called "EnviroMax Plus" that I read about at the same above link. Its being marketed like Amway and is supposed to give great fuel improvement as well? Any comments?
Link for EnviroMax Plus:
http://enviro-bricks.myextremeresearch.com/enviromax.asp
Topaz
(10/23/2005; 03:01:32 MDT - Msg ID: 137132)
@Pritcho.
http://peswiki.com/index.php/Directory:Acetone_as_a_Fuel_AdditiveProbably all you need to know at the Link Sire.

Knallgold
(10/23/2005; 05:53:07 MDT - Msg ID: 137133)
Refco/Bird Flu "Scam"?
?This is a garden-variety scandal. This kind of stuff just happens,? said Flowers "

"We will not,and I repeat NOT devalue our currency"--... (fill in your favourite politician like Jeltzin).Judging by Flowers complacent comment it might be just papered over again...

@Goldilox: I think you are a bit too conspirational re bird flu.First,I has to be taken serious for several reasons (I won't go into detail here)

Only 60 deaths?Now,yes.Good to be prepared BEFORE its more.Just as you buy Gold when its low,and hope you better won't need it.Precautious,doing the necessary measures beforehand often stops the problem before geting virulent (some then complain afterwards because it didn't happen proves the hystery was unnecessary...)

"Ok, we've got heart disease, myriad cancers, alcohol and tobacco poisoning, auto wrecks, etc., etc. - all of which kill MANY more people on a regular basis, but get little or no airtime or serious R&D money"--Do I have to tell you know how much is being spent for heart disease,cancers,alcoholism'safety on the streets?Plus,car accidents aren't very contagious (as funny as your lightning strike comparison...)

While I have a unbelieveable first hand account of big pharmas efforts to DESTROY a serious alternative to cancer therapy with ALL means and I'm also into alternative treatments,I have also worked for big pharma in the past and still do indirectly now'so I can see both sides.To a good degree they do serious science with fully commited people (and theres also small pharma booming!).I assume you subscribe to science after all (in contrast to the modern alchemy esotheric and superstition).

No what has this to do with Gold?Well,a recent issue of a newspaper aknowledged Gold stellar performance the last years,most analysts asked told they doubt that it will still go much higher.Birdflu though could push it up more they said.
PRITCHO
(10/23/2005; 06:45:47 MDT - Msg ID: 137134)
@Topaz - - -- Re Acetone
Thanks Topaz but that link was at the link I gave in my original post. To clarify: what I really want to know is whether others here think this is a fair dinkum answer to getting better mileage without rooting your motor? :)

Translation: Is this something one could try with confidence?
Goldilox
(10/23/2005; 07:24:17 MDT - Msg ID: 137135)
Bird Flu
@ Knallgold,

Good to be prepared? Yes.

Is Bird Flu another brainchild of the Hughes Biowarfare Labs that were never really shut down? The anthrax that was sent to Daschle and "media liberals" has been documented as coming right from US biowarfare labs.

Mass hysteria with $Billions being begged from Congress? No.

Legal immunity? No

CODEX ALIMENTARIUS? No

Your "scientific industry" is lobbying to control ALL dietary supplements through prescription, and pushing anti-depressents to kids like Pez dispensers, while doctors with stock options sit in judgement of "drug trials". The FDA is no more "independent" than the baseball commissioner.

I'm sure there is some serious science going on, but along with it, there is serious legal and illegal suppression of alt-med, irresponsible advertising, early release of questionable remedies, and attempts to control food additives - not to mention double charging US customers and blocking attempts by institutions to achieve price parity with Canada, etc. And now they want immunity from litigation - just in time for Vioxx and associcated scandals.

Methinks they doth protest too much . . .

There is a lot of dirt in the Big Pharma world, as it has become as "scientifically dogmatic" and profit warped as NASA and its suppliers, who have sucked up a $trillion since building the shuttles and have virtually nothing new to show for it.

I agree with those who say we need to push the "reset" button in Washington and send the graft and lobbyists packing.
Goldilox
(10/23/2005; 07:29:48 MDT - Msg ID: 137136)
Conspiracy
@ Knallgold

con�spir�a�cy (noun) Pronunciation Key (kn-sp"r-s)

In Law. An agreement between two or more persons to commit a crime or accomplish a legal purpose through illegal action.

-Goldilox

There COULDN'T be two people involved - ya think?
Knallgold
(10/23/2005; 08:42:35 MDT - Msg ID: 137137)
Goldilox
No need to tell me about the FDA (and pharmas wrongdoings),theres as much complaining about the FDA here in Europes pharma companies.Reset button,good idea.

In one sentence,the US/AA world forcing their will on the rest of the world.Nothing new in the west.


overton
(10/23/2005; 09:25:35 MDT - Msg ID: 137138)
dines didn't have much to say on the yellow metal on nbr
10/21/05:"Market Monitor"-James Dines, Editor & Publisher of the "Dines Letter"

PAUL KANGAS: My guest market monitor this week is James Dines, editor and publisher of the popular "Dines Letter" based in Belvedere, California. Jim, welcome back to NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT.

JAMES DINES, EDITOR, "THE DINES LETTER": Hey, Paul how you doing?

KANGAS: Just fine thanks. The stock market this week has defied logic in no small way with the Dow swinging up and down in the triple digits. What is going on here?

DINES: Well, I`ve got some good news for you. I`m looking forward to a very strong year-end rally. I don`t think it`s begun yet. As you know, you read my letter. We turned bearish this summer and the market has moved on very nicely. I`ve asked my followers to have some attack capital ready for it and I think sometime very soon, we`ll be flashing a new buy signal.

KANGAS: What signal will we get. What will trigger that?

DINES: The market`s getting very oversold and also we`re getting the level of pessimism we need.

KANGAS: OK, simple enough. With us -- when you were last with us in June of 2004, you had four buy recommendations for our viewers. Let`s see how they`ve done. Cameco, that`s the uranium stock. It`s up 175 percent. What`s going on there?

DINES: I guess more buyers then sellers, Paul.

KANGAS: I guess so.

DINES: That`s the world`s largest uranium company and I` very bullish on that stock.

KANGAS: And you`re very bullish on the uranium group. That`s the group that you feel is probably the same thing as the Internet was ten years ago.

DINES: That`s right. I sat here and you interviewed me in this very chair ten years ago at the dawn of the Internet age and I said to you that the Internet`s the biggest thing I`d ever seen and people got rich following me into them and I`m telling you that uranium is going to be bigger than the Internet, possibly by an order of magnitude.

KANGAS: OK, we`ll have some more on that in just a moment. Let`s look at some of these other recommendations. The silver stock Apex didn`t do too well, 9.1 percent and we`ll get into that I`m sure. We`ll have some more comments. Sirius Satellite radio rather nicely higher, 88 percent. Good call there. And Whole Foods market, one of your favorites is up 57.4 percent. Those were three out of four super choices and I compliment you on them Jim.

DINES: Thank you.

KANGAS: Now do you have some new recommendations. I know, let`s talk a little bit more about these uranium stocks.

DINES: Well, I`ve had -- there`s only one really large blue good chip in the uraniums and that`s the one the institutions are going to swarm all over and that`s Cameco. So I`m re-recommending that one but with my subscribers, I`ve picked up 11 small ones also that I call Chihuahuas and my favorite in that group right now is Laramide and the reason I like it is because they`ve purchased all of Homestake Mining`s uranium properties from Barak and second, they`ve got the Westmoreland property in Australia. I think - this one`s already up 71,400 percent and I think it`s going to go much higher.

KANGAS: So in other words, it was just pennies a while back. We couldn`t get a chart on it, but up about $5 now and you still like it here.

DINES: I do. That one and Megauranium are two of my favorites right now.

KANGAS: OK and so uranium is the replacement for the Internet.

DINES: Yes.

KANGAS: OK, simple enough. How about another new recommendation?

DINES: Well, I like Whole Foods. My letter was one of the pioneers. I`m re-recommending it. I recommended it on the show a number of times over the years. It`s gone from 5 to 130 and I think it`s going to go much higher and we cover health a lot in my newsletter and I think this organic foods are the wave of the future and I think this will lead the next market rally or be a leader in that. In fact photography is another one of my loves, along with organic food and we`ve just come out with a nice picture book, a photography book, photocyclops.com.

KANGAS: The picture of Whole Foods chart is very nice indeed. You have -- e have time for one more recommendation.

DINES: I like Apex Silver. They`ve got half a billion pounds - ounces of silver and they`ve got four billion pounds of lead and eight billion pounds of zinc. It`s a value play and I think that`s a great long-term holding.

KANGAS: Fair enough. Do you own all these stocks or any of them?

DINES: I do. My money`s where my mouth is.

KANGAS: OK, so three out of the four that you recommended when you were last with us you still like and Sirius I guess you`ve gotten out of.

DINES: Yes.

KANGAS: OK, we have 20 seconds lift. And final thoughts for our viewers?

DINES: Yes, two thoughts. Number one, we`ve got a parade of hurricanes warning of global warning and I think you should always remember that nature bats last. And second, life is short so always have dessert first.

KANGAS: OK. Thank you. Jim Dines, philosopher, super philosopher. Thanks very much. My guest James Dines of the "Dines Letter."

ge
(10/23/2005; 09:31:16 MDT - Msg ID: 137139)
Nice Chart
http://tinyurl.com/b9ra8Picked up this from another forum. Tweaking the parameters of point and figure chart gives a price of objective of 583. 20 day Average of True Range is 6.27. Reminds me the 6 dollar rule.

Charting Euro ($XEU) in a similar way gives a price of objective of 1.13. Strange though it is, streching a fibo band from the highs to 1.13 captures the intermediate moves nicely. Who knows?
mikal
(10/23/2005; 09:52:08 MDT - Msg ID: 137140)
Internet, blogs, free speech threatened
http://www.freemarketnews.com/WorldNews.asp?nid=1452 Authoritarian Free Enterprise?
Emergency War Powers?
Federal Emergency Management Acts?
Executive Orders?
MILLER MUZZLE OF THE PRESS - FMNN -Part I - October 23, 2005
Druid
(10/23/2005; 11:45:15 MDT - Msg ID: 137141)
Dr. Len Horowitz Debunks Avian Flu Hysteria Campaign
http://portland.indymedia.org/en/2005/10/327154.shtml
Druid: I can link doctor (real ones) after doctor(not the least is Doctor Ron Paul) that is debunking this latest test tube scare. Big Pharmco practices real science like central bankers practice real economics. These two cartels feed off of each other as do many others. Fiat currency and complexity in many things go hand in hand. Just like the Finance & Economic magicians of "higher learning" that work for the state perform their form of pseudo-science in classroooms to an ill-informed paying audience across this once great land, so to, do these fine institutions mass produce "scientists" that find their way into the workplace where the answer in all its complexity is already known. Think about it. A reason that there might be a run to gold in light of this latest scare, is that, it might just be the thing to do for all the latest scares.
Topaz
(10/23/2005; 13:20:38 MDT - Msg ID: 137142)
@Pritcho

Mate, what you had in the Link Box couldn't be accessed from my or anyone else's computer as it was not a URL.
I didn't know you'd already been there done that ..and personally found the Link I posted provided more than enough info for the budding Acetone-adder to weigh up whether to dip the toe or otherwise.

Go on, add it, you know you want to ... ;-)

Prior to checking out the wiki, I'd thought of trying it out on Topaz-de-Mer however, having already paid the "fine" for lax Maintenance (2 injector o/hauls $2,000) due to Water in the Fuel (Twin Deezos) I think I'll pass.
Topaz
(10/23/2005; 13:43:34 MDT - Msg ID: 137143)
@P...however,

The "Disco" is a prime candidate for an "add". Got the Rover V8 in it ...and a thirstier mungrel of a donk has yet to be invented.
Got it re-jigged for LNG 5Yr's ago (Dual-Fuel) but if I run it on Gas too much, it runs roughly ...something to do with Carbon build-up.
Putting A in the Petrol would (should) cut down on my Petrol running time as it's supposed to flush the carbon more effectively.
I do (av) 600K's per week at roughly 25% Petrol, so it'd be worth a try.

You Go First!!
Smeagol
(10/23/2005; 14:18:44 MDT - Msg ID: 137144)
(o.t.) Acetone, fwiw...
.... picks up water and is miscible with it to some extent. Maybe acetone 'scavenging' water in the fuel (not to mention acetone's vapor pressure) is responsible in part for the alleged mileage improvements. Or not.

"I know thar's gold in them thar posts somewhere!"

(grin)

S.
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(10/23/2005; 14:55:37 MDT - Msg ID: 137145)
A world of gold at your fingertips... just a simple click or call away
http://www.usagold.com/buy-gold-coins.html

gold -- a global calling card
Chris Powell
(10/23/2005; 16:58:49 MDT - Msg ID: 137146)
Fearing competition, India's central bank stalls gold market liberalization
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/3400Latest GATA dispatch.



To subscribe to GATA's dispatches, send an e-mail to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com
Smeagol
(10/23/2005; 17:15:44 MDT - Msg ID: 137147)
Thank you, Ssir Chris Powell

(cackle)...the message we gets reading between the lines of that article shines as brilliantly,(and oppositely) It!

"The finance ministry and RBI are looking at a long-
term vision of developing a gold deposit market in India. Consumers could then buy standardised gold of smaller denominations at retail counters, and could keep them with banks in exchange for gold certificates."

BWAAHAHAHAHAAA!

We hopes and prays the Indian people will not sstand for this.

S.
mikal
(10/23/2005; 17:29:00 MDT - Msg ID: 137148)
Asians prize gold
http://www.centralchronicle.com/20051023/2310161.htmGold Bouncing Higher - CC - October 22, 2005
Attributes gold market to factors such as jewelry demand and the "rising trend of international markets concerned about rising dollar aginst regional currencies."
mikal
(10/23/2005; 18:04:51 MDT - Msg ID: 137149)
Gold "allure"
http://www.menafn.com/qn_news_story_s.asp?StoryId=111879 MENAFN - Middle East North Africa . Financial Network News: UAE refiner to raise gold production
mikal
(10/23/2005; 18:39:02 MDT - Msg ID: 137150)
Trends, seasonal gold, golden(antique) memories
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/southasia/view/174874/1/.html Rising Demand For Gold - Channel News Asia - October 23, 2005
\_/ Credit is wisely given to jewelry exports
AND rising domestic demand. Exports to the U.S. are up sharply this year and receive numerous government incentives.
Many determined Indian consumers are now insisting on antique gold jewelry in empathy with the times. Others
settle for modern or stone studded creations.
Rising REGIONAL gold demand is also nurtured by pragmatic perception changes and new initiatives in Dubai, UAE and Vietnam.
Liberty Head
(10/23/2005; 18:46:26 MDT - Msg ID: 137151)
Acetone/Gold Savings Plan

Assuming acetone does indeed increase fuel efficiency, I would expect the engine to have slightly more heat to dissipate. Exhaust components and motor oil may therefore have a slightly shortened life span.
Acetone is dangerous, nasty stuff to work with. It splashes easily, evaporates quickly, removes paint instantly, and its highly flammable. Hand protection, eye protection and good ventilation are a must and safety cabinet storage is highly recommended.
Personally, I hate the smell of acetone passionately and would gladly pay a premium to never have its disagreeable fumes invade my nostrils again.
That said, if one were to buy a single ounce of gold now and hold on to it until its time to replace any worn parts, your fuel efficiency savings would multiply exponentially.

Best Wishes
mikal
(10/23/2005; 19:18:16 MDT - Msg ID: 137152)
@Liberty Head, Pritcho, Topaz, Smeagol
Interesting "acetone"/fuel efficiency thread today.
Traditionally, motorists here in upstate NY use "dry gas",
STP fuel additives, Snap and similar products to remove water(especially in winter), carbon deposits and buildup throughout the fuel system(intake valves, injectors, carb(such as my old car), etc and reduce pollution(from unburned fuel) engine hesitation, knock, stalling and/or loss of power(noticeable improvement usually follows occasional use).
Sometimes several consecutive treatments are necessary but you must fill the tank with each bottle to prevent damage to the fuel pump. Gas mileage usually benefits significantly.
(Also some of these products advertise as containing jet fuel.) My experience has been positive both during treatment and after cleaning.
Many of the expensive products touted at car dealerships and auto parts stores are not worth the cost or are ineffective altogether.
David Linkley
(10/23/2005; 19:57:37 MDT - Msg ID: 137153)
Year end political risk
Rumors are flying in DC that indictments may be forthcoming in the Valerie Plame affair by Wednesday this week. Couple this with the fact that popular support for Bush is now at around 40% and by all indications heading lower. Lets also not forget the fact that the greatest printing press operator of all time is on the way out in January. Markets hate uncertainty and that may be why so much "goofy trading" abounds these days. Markets constantly blend the present with the future and are obviously confused in the current environment. All of this against a background debts piling up, more workers are layed off, the Iraq police action is going badly and financial firms struggling to keep their derivatives under control(i.e. Refco). Beware the traditional year end rally cheerleaders. Maybe we will and maybe we won't but be on guard as a liquidity crises could jump up at any time.
Druid
(10/23/2005; 22:19:45 MDT - Msg ID: 137154)
Bush�Cheney CIA/Plame case indictments released this morning
http://www.tomflocco.com/fs/CiaPlameCaseIndictments.htm@ David Linkley

Druid: I think we're past the rumor stage concerning the political risk that lay ahead. Mix this type of event with the recent Revco situation and you really begin chipping away at investor confidence in both our political and financial system. You're absolutely correct about liquidity becoming a big time problem in a very short time frame.


Snip.


Bush orders Fitzgerald fired and espionage indictments quashed

by Tom Flocco

Washington, DC�October 21, 2005�12:00 EST�TomFlocco.com exclusive�Today Special Counsel Patrick Fitzgerald handed over 22 indictments to Attorney General Alberto Gonzalez, accusing President George W. Bush, Vice President Richard Cheney and others of espionage, obstruction of justice, perjury and a variety of other charges in the matter of the CIA/Valerie Plame leak-gate case.
Sundeck
(10/23/2005; 22:23:32 MDT - Msg ID: 137155)
Liquidity crisis?
@Sir David L message #137153

Liquidity crisis? Liquidity crisis?

...with "Easy Al" at the helm and likely to give way to "Chopper Ben" in the near term? Liquidity crisis?

More likely to get new kinds of "Principal and Interest" loans...that is TWO separate loans...one to pay back the Principal and 'tother to pay back the Interest on an earlier loan...no need for extra collateral, just "do the best you can" until a bale of dollar-bills drops from the sky into your backyard...she'll be right mate...just you wait and see...

;-)
Topaz
(10/24/2005; 01:48:53 MDT - Msg ID: 137156)
That'd be one helluva mental exercise.
What WOULD be the fall-out IF they indict?

Some form of modern-day Cargo Cult as Sundeck opines?
Liquidity Crisis?
Abandonment of Faith in all forms of Fiat?

Too-Hard Basket, where art thou? ...Gold I'd be thinking!
TownCrier
(10/24/2005; 03:03:33 MDT - Msg ID: 137157)
'Custodial Risk' -- by Professor von Braun
http://www.usagold.com/gildedopinion/RocketSchool/20051023.html(excerpts) -- The recent demise of Refco highlights the issue of custodial risk and more importantly, the issue of ownership when it comes to what people describe as 'their' assets. On average only a few people actually own 'their' assets and by 'own' I mean have actual possession and/or free and clear title.

An investment portfolio generally requires the need for a third party to hold 'assets' -- as in stocks and bonds -- on behalf of the investor and such securities can be bought and sold upon instruction being received.

In the Refco situation clients no longer have the ability to access their accounts via an instruction to the executer of the trade -- and will not have that ability for some time.

Investors need to remember that custody is key, and without it one can do little to redeem ones asset, if needed.

Custodians, those that hold assets on behalf of other entities, either individual or corporate, take many different forms, including banks, stockbrokers, mutual funds and commodity traders to name a few.

Custodial risk along with its cousin, counter party risk, is unfortunately something that we are going to hear more about as the monetary debacle unfolds. Refco should be seen as a wake up call for those who have been paying attention...

The obvious remedy has been to buy gold and silver, making sure that one takes delivery of ones purchase, thereby reducing the potential of custodial risk considerably.

Ownership of gold or silver via an exchange traded fund is not the same thing and it is important to understand this. You are relying on someone to tell you that the gold is there with no real means to check that that is indeed the case. Custodial risk increases when you are relying on a third party and increases again every time another third party becomes involved.

...What effect will a blow up in this multi-trillion-dollar derivative market have on the participants, the same participants who are acting as custodians of other peoples assets which, as Refco has clearly demonstrated, can become encumbered over night?

Refco has it seems caught some very astute investors by surprise, even those who I am told did their own due diligence at the time of the IPO and missed the dangers lurking within. What does this tell us? Whoever hid the ticking time bomb within the balance sheet did a very good job is what it tells us.

How many others are out there ticking away?

...Indeed 'investments' are now very difficult to find while 'speculations' are everywhere. But can a hedge fund manager actually discriminate between the two or does it matter at all? One would have thought that due diligence should start with the quality of the product and not the short term result it may or may not offer.

One can do as much due diligence as one cares to do on a craps table at a casino but at the end of the day the game of craps is still a gamble, always was and always will be. The amount of due diligence won't change this fact nor will it affect the outcome.

...Trying to obtain a return from the stock market has not been easy as it has on the most part traded sideways for 5 years, money on deposit offers little by way of return, while gold has nearly doubled since the low of 2001. Commodities certainly have increased in price while 'traditional' investments, apart from the over-inflated housing market, have done little.

Is the dramatic increase in hedge funds, along with the explosion of the derivatives market, a case of keeping alive a brain-dead entity that is slowly decaying anyway?

What else can be repackaged and sold as this week's special, as the next 'hot' market while the speculators continue to play a game that ended in 2000, mopping up the remaining cash credits held by the gullible?

One thing is for sure and that is that in light of the Refco debacle, most investors portfolios do need a closer inspection, one that takes into account custodial, counter party and currency risk issues, sooner rather than later. Perhaps one needs a distinction between a useful asset and a 'might be' useful asset.

^-----------^

Bottom line: There is no undue complexity or risk in tangible gold fully owned.

Click url for access to the full commentary of this latest update (and complete archives) to von Braun's 'Rocket School of Economics'.

R.
TownCrier
(10/24/2005; 03:14:16 MDT - Msg ID: 137158)
Japan life insurers shun hedged dollar bonds
http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh36830_2005-10-24_07-43-34_t285734_newsmlTOKYO, Oct 24 (Reuters) - Japanese life insurance companies are becoming wary about investing in dollar bonds, as rising U.S. interest rates make the cost of hedging against currency risks expensive, while buying bonds without hedging looks precarious.

A Reuters survey of nine major insurers, whose foreign bond holdings total $168 billion, showed that many had either already slashed hedged dollar bond positions in first half of the 2005/06 business year that began in April or plan to reduce them in the second half because of the prohibitive hedging costs.

...With domestic bond yields near rock bottom, Japanese insurers in the last few years had bought dollar bonds to boost the average return on their portfolios, but they would typically hedge against a potential drop in the dollar by selling the dollar in the currency forwards market.

But because dollar/yen forward prices are determined by U.S.-Japan interest rate differentials and the U.S. Federal Reserve has raised rates 11 times to 3.75 percent in the last 16 month, the cost of hedging now virtually erases any yield gains that comes from buying dollar bonds.

Sumitomo Life said it sold hedged bonds, without disclosing the exact amount, and said it might relocate funds to domestic bonds.

...Some life insurers said they had removed currency hedging while keeping dollar bonds, betting on a rise in the dollar.

That strategy has been successful so far as the dollar rose to a two-year high around 116 yen last week, helped by growing expectations of more rate hikes from the Federal Reserve.

But many Japanese insurers now fear that the market's tide could turn.

^----(from url)---^

Build your portfolio upon the safe harbor of a solid gold foundation and let the tides turn as they may.

Choose gold and you, too, can be worry-free to the maximum extent possible.

R.
PRITCHO
(10/24/2005; 03:30:43 MDT - Msg ID: 137159)
The $10.5 Billion REFCO Smoking Gun - - - Check This!
http://www.faulkingtruth.com/Articles/Investing101/1041.htmlOnly in America?

Snip:
A $10.5 billion liability, at TODAY's mark to market valuation, called "Securities sold, not yet purchased."

$10,590,379,000 - to be precise.

Securities that have been sold. But haven't been bought. And they haven't been borrowed, either - see item 3 below.
Welcome to the wonderful world of naked short selling.
mikal
(10/24/2005; 07:10:54 MDT - Msg ID: 137160)
Currencies tussle for fool's cap
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/markets/currencies.html Yen Rises as Advisor to China's Central Bank Says Yuan Gains "Inevitable" - Bloomberg - October 24, 2005
Various comments on world currencies show different
outlooks for the week based on events in Europe, US, Japan and more.
Gold rising in all currencies shows the disdain for political prostitution.
Topaz
(10/24/2005; 08:18:29 MDT - Msg ID: 137161)
Bucky due for a breather.
http://jessel.100megsfree3.com/USbond.jpgImpeachments, Phantom Shares, Barrels and Ounces permitting, the RAW trading data would indicate our Buck Bull is running on vapor here.
E-Trading in Bonds has these last few days run out of steam on the downside allowing the "Locals" to gain the upper hand.
By inference Buck, on the back of lower Oil will soften here in sympathy.
That Bond thing will, ONE DAY take a shot at 5.5% and mean it, but I fear today or in the near future it's safe to say it won't.
Will Gold respond to the upside as per the past 6 or 8 Yr's? 2 month's ago you'd have to say a definite YES!...nowadays it's a crapshoot.
Druid
(10/24/2005; 08:41:43 MDT - Msg ID: 137162)
Fed Successor...


Druid: According to CNBC, the President is going to announce a Fed successor this afternoon. I've had my money on Helicopter Ben for some time now, I hope I at least got this call right.
Topaz
(10/24/2005; 09:05:42 MDT - Msg ID: 137163)
@Druid
"Things" are starting to get a REAL-TIME feel to them ...boding ill for ALL Future expectations.
The Hoople
(10/24/2005; 09:05:51 MDT - Msg ID: 137164)
Druid
Maybe helicopter Ben, but no matter who is crowned spokesperson for the banking cabal my bet is they will keep gold subdued to give the all-is-calm signal. To paraphrase the Mogambu Guru it's the "never let gold embarrass a grand poo-ba event". (NLGEAGPE)
Goldilox
(10/24/2005; 09:22:24 MDT - Msg ID: 137165)
Helicopter Ben it is!
CNBC just reported that Ben in IN. I guess all the choppers I have been seeing overhead were rehearsals.
Druid
(10/24/2005; 09:24:39 MDT - Msg ID: 137166)
Deflation: Making Sure "It" Doesn't Happen Here
http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2002/20021121/default.htm


Druid: Hey bondholders, in the spirit of Halloween, enjoy the snip. Bugs, buggettes, my countrymen, if the bond market is unable to react after this announcement ,then literally, the mechanization of our markets has been achieved, almost like a lock box.


"The conclusion that deflation is always reversible under a fiat money system follows from basic economic reasoning. A little parable may prove useful: Today an ounce of gold sells for $300, more or less. Now suppose that a modern alchemist solves his subject's oldest problem by finding a way to produce unlimited amounts of new gold at essentially no cost. Moreover, his invention is widely publicized and scientifically verified, and he announces his intention to begin massive production of gold within days. What would happen to the price of gold? Presumably, the potentially unlimited supply of cheap gold would cause the market price of gold to plummet. Indeed, if the market for gold is to any degree efficient, the price of gold would collapse immediately after the announcement of the invention, before the alchemist had produced and marketed a single ounce of yellow metal.

What has this got to do with monetary policy? Like gold, U.S. dollars have value only to the extent that they are strictly limited in supply. But the U.S. government has a technology, called a printing press (or, today, its electronic equivalent), that allows it to produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost. By increasing the number of U.S. dollars in circulation, or even by credibly threatening to do so, the U.S. government can also reduce the value of a dollar in terms of goods and services, which is equivalent to raising the prices in dollars of those goods and services. We conclude that, under a paper-money system, a determined government can always generate higher spending and hence positive inflation.

Of course, the U.S. government is not going to print money and distribute it willy-nilly (although as we will see later, there are practical policies that approximate this behavior).8 Normally, money is injected into the economy through asset purchases by the Federal Reserve. To stimulate aggregate spending when short-term interest rates have reached zero, the Fed must expand the scale of its asset purchases or, possibly, expand the menu of assets that it buys. Alternatively, the Fed could find other ways of injecting money into the system--for example, by making low-interest-rate loans to banks or cooperating with the fiscal authorities. Each method of adding money to the economy has advantages and drawbacks, both technical and economic. One important concern in practice is that calibrating the economic effects of nonstandard means of injecting money may be difficult, given our relative lack of experience with such policies. Thus, as I have stressed already, prevention of deflation remains preferable to having to cure it. If we do fall into deflation, however, we can take comfort that the logic of the printing press example must assert itself, and sufficient injections of money will ultimately always reverse a deflation."

mikal
(10/24/2005; 09:33:51 MDT - Msg ID: 137167)
Greenspan successor
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20051024/ap_on_bi_ge/bush_fedBush set to announce Greenspan successor - AP
At 1PM, Bush will anoounce the new Fed Reserve Board Chairman. AP article lists 3 most likely candidates.
A Oct. 20th story by Investors Business Daily stating that "Fed officials may dissent more, upset markets".
mikal
(10/24/2005; 09:36:26 MDT - Msg ID: 137168)
Sp correction
"...IBD article stating" is article STATED.
Druid
(10/24/2005; 09:46:52 MDT - Msg ID: 137169)
The debasement of world currency: it is inflation, but not as we know it
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_01/warburton041801.html
Druid: This is an oldie but goodie. Pritcho, Topaz, Hoople, this is what makes the Revco situation a hell of a lot bigger then what is being aired on the parrot box. The key to keeping this HUGE paper scheme in place relative to items of real value, lies with keeping the commodity market and prices that represent said market capped, managed and/or smothered as a whole.

Hoople, are you telling me that the "Education of a Speculator" guy cleaned the "Hot Commodities" guy financial clock?


Snip.

"Central banks are engaged in a desperate battle on two fronts

What we see at present is a battle between the central banks and the collapse of the financial system fought on two fronts. On one front, the central banks preside over the creation of additional liquidity for the financial system in order to hold back the tide of debt defaults that would otherwise occur. On the other, they incite investment banks and other willing parties to bet against a rise in the prices of gold, oil, base metals, soft commodities or anything else that might be deemed an indicator of inherent value. Their objective is to deprive the independent observer of any reliable benchmark against which to measure the eroding value, not only of the US dollar, but of all fiat currencies. Equally, their actions seek to deny the investor the opportunity to hedge against the fragility of the financial system by switching into a freely traded market for non-financial assets.

It is important to recognize that the central banks have found the battle on the second front much easier to fight than the first. Last November, I estimated the size of the gross stock of global debt instruments at $90 trillion for mid-2000. How much capital would it take to control the combined gold, oil and commodity markets? Probably, no more than $200bn, using derivatives. Moreover, it is not necessary for the central banks to fight the battle themselves, although central bank gold sales and gold leasing have certainly contributed to the cause. Most of the world's large investment banks have over-traded their capital so flagrantly that if the central banks were to lose the fight on the first front, then their stock would be worthless. Because their fate is intertwined with that of the central banks, investment banks are willing participants in the battle against rising gold, oil and commodity prices.

Central banks, and particularly the US Federal Reserve, are deploying their heavy artillery in the battle against a systemic collapse. This has been their primary concern for at least seven years. Their immediate objectives are to prevent the private sector bond market from closing its doors to new or refinancing borrowers and to forestall a technical break in the Dow Jones Industrials. Keeping the bond markets open is absolutely vital at a time when corporate profitability is on the ropes. Keeping the equity index on an even keel is essential to protect the wealth of the household sector and to maintain the expectation of future gains. For as long as these objectives can be achieved, the value of the US dollar can also be stabilized in relation to other currencies, despite the extraordinary imbalances in external trade.

The US dollar is not as vulnerable as it may appear

The key to understanding how this can happen is to consider how little information the flow of funds accounts provides about the true ownership of assets and liabilities. As far as the US external capital account is concerned, hedge funds based in the Caribbean are overseas investors. The activities of overseas branches of US commercial banks are also considered to be foreign transactions. Also, London, and Zurich are clearing-houses for all manner of nominee accounts and anonymous trusts. Around two-thirds of all US bonds recorded as UK-owned belong to UK entities representing non-residents. To fear that foreign investors will one day abstain from fresh investment in US financial assets, leaving the current account deficit uncovered and the US dollar prone, is to suppose that foreigners are the sole instigators of these external financial flows in the first place. It is quite likely that a substantial proportion of these external flow-demands for US corporate bonds and equities are, in fact, US-originated. US residents� subscriptions to leveraged hedge funds reappear as foreign investment in US securities. US commercial banks� overseas branches borrow in euros locally to invest the proceeds in US bonds, playing the yield curve."

Goldilox
(10/24/2005; 09:55:18 MDT - Msg ID: 137170)
If You Don't Eat or Drive, Inflation's No Problem
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/23/business/yourmoney/23view.htmlsnip:

ASIDE from the stuff that's becoming more expensive, like food and energy, there is no problem with inflation in the economy. That's the message economists want us to take from recent inflation reports.

On Oct. 14, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said the Consumer Price Index, the main inflation gauge, rose by a whopping 1.2 percent in September and by 4.7 percent in the last 12 months. The bureau also said the Producer Price Index, which measures inflation experienced by businesses, rose 1.9 percent in September alone.

Amid these alarming reports, many economists urged Americans to remain calm and to focus on the so-called core C.P.I. - the inflation measure that excludes the volatile costs of energy and food. The core rate rose just 0.1 percent in September, and is up only 2 percent in the last 12 months.

The dueling numbers seem to offer a classic case of how economists and consumers view the world differently. If only we lived in some futuristic biosphere where we didn't need energy or food, inflation wouldn't matter.

Government economists have been stripping out energy and food costs from the price gauge for more than three decades. After the Arab oil embargo of 1973, Arthur Burns, who was then the chairman of the Federal Reserve, correctly reasoned that temporary shifts in the price of oil shouldn't influence monetary policy unduly. So he asked Fed economists to show him a measure of price changes that excluded energy costs. Later, he asked for one that also excluded food costs.

Steven Roach, chief economist at Morgan Stanley, was an economist at the Fed at the time. "When we were asked to strip out some of the most important things that people buy, my reaction was, 'You've got to be nuts,' " he said. "These are the vital necessities of life."

But Mr. Roach, like most other economists, has come to see the virtues of distinguishing between the so-called headline C.P.I. and the core C.P.I.

Prices of food and energy are notoriously volatile, and susceptible to supply shocks and acts of nature. Inflation in these vital sectors doesn't necessarily indicate inflation across the economy. Mr. Roach notes that in the last year, consumer energy prices have risen 35 percent, while prices of other goods and services are up just 2 percent.

-Goldilox

Argument continues on how to measure the burning of Rome while the fiddlers play on!

gotta wonder how "safe" investment deposits are after the Refco "tip of th iceberg". If other brokerages are as underwater with devivaives, just what will they use to pay their customers when the exit demand hits the fan?

As Puplava likes to say,

"It's Katie bar the door,"
Druid
(10/24/2005; 09:59:54 MDT - Msg ID: 137171)
Thoughts...

Druid: In light of the present Administration's pending political problems, I think it is quite telling that this appointment/announcement occurred today.
Knallgold
(10/24/2005; 10:08:49 MDT - Msg ID: 137172)
Gold likes Bernanke
eom
mikal
(10/24/2005; 10:32:11 MDT - Msg ID: 137173)
China stagflation near?
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_world_business/view/175094/1/.htmlChinese Economy Faces "Collapse" Over Next Decade: Former Clinton Advisor - AFP - 10/24/05
Goldilox
(10/24/2005; 10:42:40 MDT - Msg ID: 137174)
China -Too much savings
@ mikal,

What a convoluted article from a former advisor to the Mena Arkansas Drug cartel.

"China's problems stem from too much savings" - sounds like he wants the Chinese to give more of their savings to their western banking masters. Ya think they are worried about Chinese attitudes toward gold?

This guy needs to study the Boxer Rebellion more closely. The Chinese will only "play along" with their drug cartel so long.
The Hoople
(10/24/2005; 10:46:58 MDT - Msg ID: 137175)
Druid,
According to WSJ reports the losses Niederhoffer suffered on his disastrous 1997 S-P put position remained hidden in the Refco closet and were carried forward to the present. They were a significant although by no means sole reason the Refco crisis began if you believe puplished reports. Rogers getting blindsided by 8 year old speculator trading losses was to me ironic. His greatest speculation wasn't his own trading. It unwittingly was when he set up his Refco account. I completely agree Refco is much bigger than what is known. Convenient too that Sarbanes-Oxley doesn't apply to them.

Goldilox
(10/24/2005; 10:51:19 MDT - Msg ID: 137176)
Refco and Sarbanes-Oxley
@ the Hoople,

I working on a team hosting a SOX conference in February. Just what makes Refco immune to SOX regs?
MK
(10/24/2005; 11:03:13 MDT - Msg ID: 137177)
A couple quick thoughts on the Bernanke appointment. . .
1. Whereas Greenspan was more of a practical monetary manager who went by his feel for the economy, Bernanke is an academic who has publicly espoused "inflation targeting" as the most rewarding policy for modern economies. When you target an artificially generated inflation number (which is low compared to the reality experienced by ordinary people), the net result is likely to be rising prices, and perhaps, rapidly rising prices should the inflationary fires suddenly surge out of control. Greenspan, in my view, overcame the problem with inflation targeting just mentioned by giving the impression that he indeed was a wizard of sorts sitting behind the curtain and pulling the right levers at the right time. For Greenspan monetary policy was an art; for Bernanke it could very well be a science, but one based on what will likely be seen in future years as bad data.

2. Coming out in favor of Bernanke now delivers a message to Wall Street and the rest of the global financial village: Greenspan will indeed by replaced. Greenspan now becomes a lame duck. The Greenspan era is over.
The Hoople
(10/24/2005; 11:11:19 MDT - Msg ID: 137178)
Goldilox,
Today's WSJ C-3 column called Tracking the Numbers is titled "Refco's Sarbanes-Oxley Loophole". Basically SOX doesn't apply to IPO's or filings to register stocks. And since the NYSE moved with lightning speed to "delist" Refco SOX will never apply in the future. Neat and tidy, no?
TownCrier
(10/24/2005; 13:41:36 MDT - Msg ID: 137179)
Trichet calls him a "remarkable economist" -- our new Fed Chair, Ben $ 'Helicopter' Bernanke
http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2002/20021121/default.htmThis is perhaps the defining "helicopter speech" that put Ben S. Bernanke "on the map", so to speak, among a population of "remarkable economists".

Remarks by Governor Ben S. Bernanke
Before the National Economists Club, Washington, D.C.
November 21, 2002

(...excerpts...) -- "...Each of the policy options I have discussed so far involves the Fed's acting on its own. In practice, the effectiveness of anti-deflation policy could be significantly enhanced by cooperation between the monetary and fiscal authorities.

"A broad-based tax cut, for example, accommodated by a program of open-market purchases to alleviate any tendency for interest rates to increase, would almost certainly be an effective stimulant to consumption and hence to prices.

"Even if households decided not to increase consumption but instead re-balanced their portfolios by using their extra cash to acquire real and financial assets, the resulting increase in asset values would lower the cost of capital and improve the balance sheet positions of potential borrowers.

"A money-financed tax cut is essentially equivalent to Milton Friedman's famous "helicopter drop" of money.

Of course, in lieu of tax cuts or increases in transfers the government could increase spending on current goods and services or even acquire existing real or financial assets.

"If the Treasury issued debt to purchase private assets and the Fed then purchased an equal amount of Treasury debt with newly created money, the whole operation would be the economic equivalent of direct open-market operations in private assets."

"...Thus, I do not view the Japanese experience as evidence against the general conclusion that U.S. policymakers have the tools they need to prevent, and, if necessary, to cure a deflationary recession in the United States."

"...I hope to have persuaded you that the Federal Reserve and other economic policymakers would be far from helpless in the face of deflation, even should the federal funds rate hit its zero bound."

^---(see url for full speech)---^

Welcome aboard, Ben. An auspicious day for gold.

R.
TownCrier
(10/24/2005; 14:20:22 MDT - Msg ID: 137180)
Bernanke Trivia
http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh51631_2005-10-24_17-18-51_n2467659_newsml-- He has long advocated the Fed adopt a publicly stated inflation target, a step Greenspan has steadfastly opposed.

-- Bernanke served on the board of the Montgomery Township School District in New Jersey from 1994-2000. "Six grueling years during which my fellow board members and I were trashed alternately by angry parents and angry taxpayers," he said of his experience.

^---(from url)---^

A true microcosm of national government/politics; that is, to be trashed alternately by angry solicitors and angry taxpayers.

And now that he will be given the power to "print money", he needn't be trashed by anyone, except all those angry savers who weren't clever enough to exchange their depreciating dollars into the stability of gold metal.

Call USAGOLD-Centennial for consultation on diversification strategies that are right for you.

1-800-869-5115

R.
Survivor
(10/24/2005; 14:38:38 MDT - Msg ID: 137181)
What? Really?

Can anyone corroborate the story in Druid's post #137154 about Fitzgerald and the Plame case? This is consistent with what I would expect from the current administration, but I also think the story would be exploding like a volcano by now.

Thanks
- Survivor

Sundeck
(10/24/2005; 15:28:19 MDT - Msg ID: 137182)
Bernanke vs Greenspan
Waking up this morning (in Oz) and hearing confirmation of Bernanke's nomination, and reading MK's #137177 and TC's reference to Trichet's "remarkable economist" remark got me thinking that perhaps the main difference between Greenspan and Bernanke is that:

****Greenspan KNEW that he did not understand the economy and the financial system whereas Bernanke thinks he does!****

I suspect that one remarkable economist is going to be furthering his education in ways not suspected...probably at our expense...

As for Bush, he rather-predictably has nominated someone who has agreed, either explicitly or on a nod-and-a-wink, to keep the spiggots open and to paperise the Bush dream (delusion?) of Monetary America conquering the World...even to the orbit of Mars.

(I think I want to go back to bed and hide under the covers.)

;-)
MK
(10/24/2005; 15:54:20 MDT - Msg ID: 137183)
On Trichet's "remarkable economist" comment
Remarkable economists don't always make remarkable Fed chairman. Paul Volcker rose through the central bank itself serving as New York Fed president before moving over to the big chair. His persona was that of a hard-nosed banker, not an academic. Greenspan was in and out of government the private sector his own economics advisory and did the speakeer circuit before the Beltway beckoned. His persona was that of an economic wizard, not an academic (though at times he speaks like one). The last academic to head the Fed was Arthur Burns, and even though he purportedly batted from the right side of the plate, his principle legacy is the inflationary/political chaos of the late 1970s. In terms of background, and perhaps philosophically as well, Bernanke reminds me more of Arthur Burns than Volcker and Greenspan, and just as Burns was victimized by the times, so might Bernanke. Who would disagree with the notion that the times are very similar?

Whether a Fed chairman's tenure is "uneventful" (a good thing) or "challenging" (a bad thing) resides largely in the fate thrown out by Lady Luck.
One thing is certain: This is a political appointment. Bernanke's is right out of the White House and one would be surprised to discover that he hasn't been primed for the job.

Today's market action is one for the spinmeisters. Deeper impulses will make themselves known in the days and weeks ahead. The market anticipates lower rates. Bernanke will be good for gold.

"Sir, your helicopter[s] await you."
USAGOLD Daily Market Report
(10/24/2005; 16:01:00 MDT - Msg ID: 137184)
Page Update!
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Daily Gold Market Report has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.

MONDAY Market Excerpts

Gold ends off after flirting with $470

October 24 (from MarketWatch) -- Gold futures closed lower Monday after a brief stint above $470 an ounce, giving back less than half of the nearly $6-an-ounce gain scored during the previous session.

"Gold has been pretty volatile lately -- which makes sense given the uncertain inflation picture out there," said Michael Cuggino, chief executive at Pacific Heights Management LLC.

COMEX December gold contracts climbed as high as $470.80 before turning lower to close down $2.10 at $467.

"Strong physical support and gold's ability to hold the $460 level are likely to prove supportive factors in the week ahead," said James Moore, an analyst at TheBullionDesk.com in London.

Metals traders also eyed President Bush's nomination of Ben Bernanke, his top economic adviser, to succeed Federal Reserve chief Alan Greenspan.

"In a longer-term context, the selection of Ben Bernanke has positive implications for gold," said Richard Sacks, a managing partner at Brick Capital Partners L.P.

"Remember that in the midst of deflation fears 12-18 months back Ben Bernanke was quoted as saying 'we will drop money from helicopters, if necessary'."

Editor comment:
After President Bush named his top economic advisor, Ben Bernanke, to succeed Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, Bernanke immediately said his first priority as Fed chief would be to ensure continuity with the Greenspan era.

'Continuity' should certainly be welcomed by gold owners, as we are now fully five years into an unmistakable trend of rising gold prices.

The naming of Bernanke also gives a sense of general relief that the Fed will not actively pursue efforts to control asset prices in general as Bernanke is known for his belief that it is very difficult -- even after the fact -- to ascertain whether there's been a bubble. And even in cases where bubles may be clearly recognized, history has not been kind with attempts to control asset prices, leading often to highly undesirable declines in both assets and the economy.

---(see url for full news, 24-hr newswire, market quotes)---
J-Bullion
(10/24/2005; 16:01:27 MDT - Msg ID: 137185)
Bernanke
The Dow rallies 160+ on the appointment of Bernanke! Please, that announcement alone should have been good enough to cut the Dow in half down to 5,000 or so!

Can't wait to see how high gold/silver will go once he stops dropping all that paper money everywhere to prevent deflation. John Law/Wiemer Republic have nothing on this Bernanke fellow

Sorry, just venting and putting my 2 cents in.
TownCrier
(10/24/2005; 16:35:35 MDT - Msg ID: 137186)
Central banks can't seem to keep inflation in check
http://www.startribune.com/stories/535/5687038.htmlThe Economist
October 24, 2005 -- Karl Otto Pohl, a former president of the German Bundesbank, once remarked that "inflation is like toothpaste. Once it is out of the tube, it is hard to get it back in again."

Apparently not that hard. Until recently it looked as if inflation had been defeated in most rich countries.

But it has risen sharply this year in the United States, the euro area and Britain.

The U.S. inflation rate has almost doubled during the past year to 4.7 percent in September, its highest since 1991. Embarrassingly, inflation now is higher than when Alan Greenspan, the soon-to-retire chairman of the Federal Reserve, took office in 1987.

British inflation is equally embarrassing for the Bank of England. It has risen from 1.1 to 2.5 percent during the past year, well above the bank's 2 percent target and the highest rate since 1996.

...This is hardly hyperinflation, but it also is not most people's idea of price stability.

Global monetary policy still is unusually lax by historical standards. In the United States, despite 11 increases in interest rates since June 2004, real rates still are negative and below any reasonable notion of the "neutral rate of interest" at which monetary policy is neither stimulating nor restraining the economy.

In the euro area, real interest rates also are negative and at their lowest in history.

During the past decade, central banks have had a big helping hand in holding down inflation from faster productivity growth in some countries (thanks to information technology) and from the integration of China into the world economy. By increasing the world economy's growth potential, these factors allowed the United States in particular to grow faster without inflation.

At some point, the effects of IT advances and China on inflation could fade or even go into reverse. If this happened at the same time as a surge in oil prices, inflation could take off more quickly than it has for many years.

The bitter experience of the 1970s shows that the first signs of rising inflation should never be ignored.

^---(from url)---^

The toothpaste is coming out of the tube, and with Bernanke at the helm, we are sure to have a reliable ratchet squeezing the tube. Inflation, especially as seen through the lens of currency depreciation as a social/policy imperative, is a one-way street. Protect the value of your savings by choosing gold.

R.
The Invisible Hand
(10/24/2005; 16:45:09 MDT - Msg ID: 137188)
Economics, science, law and the Absolute
So, Bernanke is an academician.
What job does he have to do?
Euhr, the Fed is there to manage the economy.
What are the principles the Fed needs to do that? Are these theoretical or practical principles?

As Harry Hazlitt put it in 1946 in his book "Economics in One Lesson":
The art of economics consists in looking not merely at the immediate but at the longer effects of any act or policy; it consists in tracing the consequences of that policy not merely for one group but for all groups

One is reminded of what the late Brussels-based philosopher of law Chaim Perelman said about law and science: law is not a science but there exists a science of law (le droit n�est pas une science, mais il existe une science du droit)

This is what allows lawyers to resolve disputes in which there is no precedent neither an explicit statute outlining the solution.

The problem is that economics is a science. And Milton F. magistrally outlines the effects which follow from different policies.

However, as Dr Tibor R. Machan outlines in his book "Capitalism and Individualism", Cybereditions.com, if we defend liberty because of utility maximisation, then people may even quite rationally act not to defend their freedom.

Alan was of course in divine connection with the invisible hand.

As Dr. Mary T. Clark put it on p. 25 of the 2000, revised edition, of her book "An Aquinas Reader� (Fordham University Press)
Thomistic metaphysics enables on to recognise what the eye does not observe �
the existential grounding of the process of knowing and loving and choosing with which we are all familiar.
Within this perspective, ONE DOES NOT ABSTRACT, CONCEPTUALISE, possess, or grasp the absolute or truth.
ONE IS AWAKENED by the Absolute, becomes aware within the horizon of the Absolute, and responds to truth, to goodness, to love, the authentic presence of the Absolute.

Alan could be awakened? Can Ben be?
TownCrier
(10/24/2005; 16:46:09 MDT - Msg ID: 137189)
J-Bullion,
See the editor comment in the DMR as an explanation of the market's reaction. Bernanke is inclined to let bubbles grow, and is equal to the task of pumping money (with depreciation) as needed to "justify the price" when they show signs of deflating.

A one-way ticket to Inflationville.

R.
contrarian
(10/24/2005; 16:54:22 MDT - Msg ID: 137190)
bernanke
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_05/taylor102305.htmlTrying to make sense of Bernanke appointment. Does the stock market anticipate he will ease off on raising interest rates (look at today's rise)? Then, by this, one can anticipate increased inflation and there gold to the moon. As he has come out in the past talking about the money printing press.

Or is he going to try to save the dollar at all costs by raising interest rates like Greenspan, albeit under the cover of fighting inflation (all the while surreptitiously increasing liquidity)?

In either case, he's between a rock and a hard place I think. Doomed if he does, doomed if he doesn't. Whether 1) raising interest rates to save the dollar (and crash the stock market), or 2) holding/lowering interest rates to save the stock market (and thereby crashing the dollar AND THEN the stock market.

Personally, I think he'll keep raising the interest rates, just as Greenspan did before the crash of 2001, because above all, I think they're afraid of a dollar disaster more than a stock crash. They've done it before and they can do it again. Thus, this option 1 as above, will only crash the stock market. But if they choose option 2, they'll crash the stock market AND the dollar, clearly less desirable.

This is just the sketchiest of analyses, may be totally off the mark, but any thoughts anyone?

Also see excerpt below from link, which supports the idea that Bernanke will continue Greenspan's strategy and raise interest rates. And of course, that will mean down for the stock markets, given the stock market's unjustified expectations:
"Remember the recession that ended in 1982? It was the deepest since the 1930s. I believe there are at least two reasons ways that the current situation could turn into a depression. Unfortunately I believe it is likely to happen. First, I believe banking interests control our government and its policies, and the bankers will not, if they can help it, have their loans repaid to them in worthless currency. In other words, the bankers are the silent power behind the throne, keeping our political system bound within certain parameters that are acceptable to them. Thus I think it is likely that the Fed will surprise all but a handful of market players by being surprisingly tight on its monetary policy once it becomes clear their status is threatened by higher inflation. And I think the data that came out this past week is reason enough to expect the Fed to start raising interest rates much more aggressively than 99% of Wall Street anticipate. In fact, I think at some point, they will slam on the brakes to demonstrate they are serious about our lack of saving and profligate spending habits. At some point, given our high level of debt, I believe it more than likely that we will spin into a deflationary implosion."
MK
(10/24/2005; 16:54:29 MDT - Msg ID: 137191)
Back to earth. . .
One of the better columnists at the Financial Times is John Plender. This is how he compared the present era to the 1970s -- a quote Mr. Bernanke might want to clip and carry around with him:

"The contrast today with the Bretton Woods era is not just that dollar floats freely. The current account deficit at close to 6% of gross domestic product, is vastly greater than in the early 1970s, when the deficit rose from all of 0.1% to 0.5% between 1971 and 1972. We are in the middle of an unprecedented credit bubble. As in 1971, everyone knows the U.S. balance of payments is unsustainable, and Alan Greenspan, chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve, made an alarming admission to the French finance minister last week that the U.S. has lost control of fiscal policy. Yet the foreign central bankers, private investors and financial institutions that now control the fate of the dollar remain completely unfazed."

MK Note: It is interesting to note that the "alarming admission" was followed quickly by the Bernanke announcement. The appointment however doesn't change the reality.

_____________

"One fine day, this death-defying, leveraged world could wake up to a chain-reaction credit accident. One could imagine counterparty stiffing counterparty until the global lending apparatus stopped cold. . .To stop a bank run, central banks print money. To stop a run on a non-bank, who knows what they would do? Maybe they would call FEMA."

- James Grant, 10/7/2005 Grant's Interest Rate Observer (before the Refco news, before the Bernanke news)
David Linkley
(10/24/2005; 17:12:12 MDT - Msg ID: 137192)
The greatest danger
It's not Bernanke's addiction to the printing presses which disturbs me most, it's now the Fed's lack of independence from the White House. No one wants the ship to "sink" on their watch, how much pressure could Bernanke take as the US economy slows dramatically into next year. This is the most gold friendly announcement since Auther Burns was Fed Chairman.
David Linkley
(10/24/2005; 17:42:01 MDT - Msg ID: 137193)
Most self-serving comment of the day
Bill Gross of Pimco, "I think Bernanke will be a lot tougher on inflation than anyone thinks." Of course the fact that Pimco manages one of the largest bond portfolios in the world wouldn't have anything to do with that - would it?
Druid
(10/24/2005; 18:39:56 MDT - Msg ID: 137194)
"Leakgate"
http://www.dogpile.com/info.dogpl/search/web/Leakgate/1/-/1/-/-/-/-/-/-/-/-/-/-/-/-/-/-/-/-/-/-/-/-/-/-/-/-/-/-/-/-/-/-/-/-/-/-/-/-/-/-/-/-/-/-/-/-/-/-/-/-/-/417/top@Survivor

Druid: Hit the Dogpile search engine for "Leakgate" and you hit on a portal of sorts that provide comments from a variety of sources reference the subject line. I came upon this particlur hit off of another site and tracked it to:

www.tomflocco.com. I'll keep searching and if I come across a different source that's somewhat credible that can corroborate that particular story, I'll post. I'm guessing there's a lot of heat on this administration as this announcement concerning "helicopter Ben" caught a lot of supposed informed people off guard in terms of the timing.

MK
(10/24/2005; 18:58:58 MDT - Msg ID: 137195)
You see. . . .
http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D8DEKK7G6.htm?campaign_id=apn_home_down&chan=dbHere's the problem (from the Business Week article linked above):

"A believer in keeping inflation at around 2 percent, Bernanke has reached into children's literature to embrace a "Goldilocks" theory -- not too hot, not too cold."

This is what I'm talking about. He believes the inflation rate is 2% and will gear policy at that number. Who here believes the inflation rate is 2%? You would have to be brain dead to believe that number.
David Linkley
(10/24/2005; 19:06:28 MDT - Msg ID: 137196)
They don't ring a bell at the top, or do they?
The formality of naming Bernanke Fed Chairman sends a signal heard round the world. The dollar is TOAST. A loud bell rang today and it is a message to get out of US assets and into gold. Bush is determined to repeat the mistakes of the past and bring hardship to all who live in the US. The clock is ticking, stay in these markets at your own risk.
Chris Powell
(10/24/2005; 19:14:28 MDT - Msg ID: 137197)
Bloomberg's Caroline Baum ridicules suggestions of market rigging
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/3402Latest GATA dispatch.


To subscribe to GATA's dispatches, send an e-mail to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com
Sundeck
(10/24/2005; 19:17:35 MDT - Msg ID: 137198)
Bernanke and the Tooth-paste Fairy
Ref TC's #137186

I can see it all...

Ben Bernanke, in his new role as "Inspector General of Inflation" leans forward, feet planted firmly on the ground, measuring (with his academic's rule, calibrated in units of "percent CPI") the tooth-paste as it oozes from the tube. Mmmm....neither too much, nor too little...

All seems under control until suddenly: "Flutter, flutter, flap, flip!" There is a flurry of wings and the Tooth-past Fairy hovers nearby...reporting for dollar-drop duty. Startled, Ben steps in the toothpaste, slips, loses his balance and plants his butt hard upon the tube! Toothpaste spurts everywhere! Ben is plastered, but emerges eventually, somewhat chastened...but with a bright smile!

:-(

David Linkley
(10/24/2005; 19:25:07 MDT - Msg ID: 137199)
Re: Caroline Baum
Hi Chris,
Caroline Baum and Bloomberg are mouthpieces of the establishment and of very little help in seeking financial truth. It's a waste of our time and energy to try and educate these people. The truth will show itself to all very soon.
Ned
(10/24/2005; 19:30:53 MDT - Msg ID: 137200)
Contrarian
"Whether 1) raising interest rates to save the dollar (and crash the stock market), or 2) holding/lowering interest rates to save the stock market (and thereby crashing the dollar AND THEN the stock market.

I think its now deeper than that. The interest rate pendulum has swung so far on the last swing that Greenscam had to lower rates to a 40 year low. Reason for that was to attract every nickel and dime from every possible mortgage carrying candidate in the country. Deparation or WHAT! Reverse the deflationary panic!!

Imagine interest rates at 1 1/2%, 40 year lows !! Greenspan shifted the 'gears' of the economy into the lowest of possible lows, imagine lower? She will STALL amigo, game over.

Now imagine rates climbing, climbing to save the already deceased dollar. Of course the SM will crash, worse the RE market will crash and there's your 2/3 of the economic meal ticket gone.

The U.S.S. Titanic is now fishtailing violently from side and side and she's a gonna flip......and its gonna be ugly.....very, very ugly.
Druid
(10/24/2005; 21:10:37 MDT - Msg ID: 137201)
The king of real estate's cashing out
http://money.cnn.com/2005/10/21/news/newsmakers/barrack/index.htm?cnn=yes
Druid: This is one of the more ominous signs that the real estate bubble is heading for a needle. Pretty good read.



Snip.

Tom Barrack is selling most of his U.S. portfolio. Maybe you should be nervous too.
October 24, 2005: 7:56 AM EDT
By Shawn Tully, Fortune Senior Writer


NEW YORK (Fortune) - Tom Barrack, arguably the world's greatest real estate investor, is methodically selling off his U.S. real estate holdings as prices drive the market to nosebleed levels.

He likens the current real estate market to a game of polo.

"I feel totally safe playing polo on a field full of pros," says the bronzed 58-year old. "But when amateurs are all over the field, someone can get killed. They have more guts than brains. They charge after every ball and don't know when to hold back."

It's the same with U.S. real estate right now. "There's too much money chasing too few good deals, with too much debt and too few brains." The amateurs are going to get trampled, he explains, taking seasoned horsemen, who should get off the turf, down with them.

Says Barrack: "That's why I'm getting out."

Investors take heed. Barrack may be an amateur at polo, but when it comes to judging markets, he's the ultimate pro.

Arguably the best real estate investor on the planet, he runs a $25 billion portfolio of trophy assets, from the Raffles hotel chain in Asia to the Aga Khan's former resort in Sardinia to Resorts International, the largest private gaming company in the U.S.

Barrack's Colony Capital, one of the largest private equity firms devoted solely to real estate, has racked up returns of 21 percent annually since 1990, handing investors, chiefly pension funds and college endowments, 17 percent after all fees.

Barrack bought the Fukuoka Dome, Japan's Yankee Stadium, in part because he calculated that the titanium in the retractable roof was worth as much as the purchase price.

His strategy is to buy classy but neglected properties anywhere in the world where prices are low. Then, he'll pour in capital to fix them up, and resell in them in five years of so with their pedigrees fully restored. Says his friend Donald Trump: "Tom has an amazing vision of the future, an ability to see what's going to happen that no one else can match."

Right now, Barrack's view of the U.S. market couldn't be clearer: It's a great time to sell, and a terrible time to buy.

In fact, he sees signs of the tech bubble mentality in real estate. Too much capital is chasing real estate, he explains, with hedge funds, private equity groups, and rich investors all bidding on the same properties. "They've driven prices to the point where the yields on high-quality properties are like the returns on bonds, around 5 percent or 6 percent," says Barrack. "That's too low."

And he sees the bubble deflating soon. Barrack thinks the catalyst will be a trend few others are talking about, a steep rise in the price of building materials and labor. "Construction costs have spiked 20 percent in the past nine months," he says. The reasons: Shortages of labor and materials like lumber because of the building boom, and increases in the price of oil, needed to produce everything from plastic piping to insulation to shingles.

The slump will show up first in speculative hot spots like Miami and Las Vegas, he says, where condo developers are preselling their projects for what looks like big profits. When they actually build the units over the next year or two, he predicts, they will end up spending more then the units are now selling for.

At that point, says Barrack, the developers will try to raise prices. "But most of these buyers are speculators," he says. "They will either sue the developers to get the original price or take their deposits back and walk away." The developers will then put the units back on the market, and the glut of vacant condos will drive prices down. "It's the busted deals caused by construction costs that will cause the turn in the market," he says.

Goldilox
(10/24/2005; 21:39:29 MDT - Msg ID: 137202)
Dow vs. Bernanke
My thoughts on the DOW reaction to Helicopter Ben's appontment tend toward the idea that SM "buyers" are reacting because the announcement removes the "instability" of not knowing who GS' successor would be. This is very different than a positive reaction to Bernanke and his policy history in and of itself.

Most likely, this will prove to be a "stability bounce", which we can determine if we see the longer term trends resuming as we move forward from the announcement.
OvS
(10/24/2005; 21:42:52 MDT - Msg ID: 137203)
Appropriate Titles?
The Fed Master is the
Chairman of the U.S.,
wheras the President
is only the President
of the United States?
spotlight
(10/24/2005; 22:04:41 MDT - Msg ID: 137204)
Tonight, on the Jim Lehrer News Hour
Tonight, on the Jim Lehrer News Hour, in the last minute of discussion on the merits of Benanke as the new Fed Chairman, James Gailbraith had words to this effect when asked what may be a possible challange to Bernanke.

(I parrallel his answer:)

Gailbraith:
I think he may understand the threat to the fianancial system under the dollar reserve standard where the developing nations, are in the position of forced lending.

It is imperitive that we take into consideration, when planning a new system, the underdeveloped nations, ( China India, Russia, ect.) and have a new financial system ready should a crises develope down the road.

The above was the gist of what he had to say.

This was quite unexpected. He obviously has a complete understanding of the reserve currency advantage we have had for so long.

I wonder how many others will pick up where he left off.
2023
(10/24/2005; 22:36:01 MDT - Msg ID: 137205)
Ben drop some money over here.........
it's me 2023.... in my front yard waving the flag.....please drop some dollars here.... I lost my job back in February and I can't pay my credit card bills or my huge mortgage..............help me Ben!
Goldilox
(10/24/2005; 22:45:29 MDT - Msg ID: 137206)
Barrack article
@ Druid,

Michael Barrack really could be the canary in the coal mines as far as the RE market goes.

Not unlke Refco for people trading commodity paper!

How many dominoes have to fall before people start to get REALLY nervous?

I was listening to Cliff (of Web Bot fame) on Alex Merklinger tonight. He says the emotive tension he is reading in the 60M websites he analyzes is 3-4 times stronger than it was prior to the Tsunami. For those who believe he has found a statistical method to analyze "collective premonition", that does not bode well for the near future. Self-fulfilling prophesy? Maybe, but which is more important, the mechanism or the results?

Also, Alex announced he is suspending live broadcasts as of Friday for personal health reasons, so George Ure, who Cliff says has the "blab" gene will be the only source of Web Bot news from that point on.

Things are truly getting "interesting".
OvS
(10/24/2005; 23:07:58 MDT - Msg ID: 137207)
Talking about "precious" metals...
Since the beginning of last
year, Rhodium's price in-
creased almost 8 fold, from
380 to more then 2,900. Too
bad they didn't make pre
1933 coins of Rhodium...OvS
contrarian
(10/24/2005; 23:34:37 MDT - Msg ID: 137208)
Ha Ha! from Gold Eagle...Three Stooges!
http://www.gold-eagle.com/cgi-bin/gn/get/forum.html?date=2005%3A10%3A24%3A20%3A00%3A00From Fleckenstien..Introducing the 3 Stooges...
(Fullgoldcrown) Oct 24, 22:36

.." actually turned on Bubblevision for a moment right before the announcement, just to see what kind of hoopla was going to surround this. When I watched George, Al, and Bennie walk into the room, my first thought was that these three were the Moe, Larry, and Curly of economic and monetary policy -- and as incompetent a trio as one could ever assemble..."


OZ
(10/25/2005; 02:27:08 MDT - Msg ID: 137209)
I deliver... you decide

This article comes from

Tom Flocco.com
http://tomflocco.com/


D.C. Appellate Court throws out Bush suit against DOJ to block Fitzgerald indictments
Date: Tuesday, October 25
Topic: --


D.C. Appellate Court throws out Bush suit against DOJ to block Fitzgerald indictments

by Tom Flocco

Washington, DC�October 25, 2005�www.TomFlocco.com�Earlier today the District of Columbia Appellate Court threw out a Bush administration suit against its own Justice Department, attempting to block the issuance of Special Counsel Patrick Fitzgerald's indictments against White House officials.


The White House's initial attempt to obstruct justice and have the indictments quashed and sealed was dismissed by the D.C. District Court late Friday afternoon, according to a sequence of events based on information in the form of data from intelligence field reports.

On Friday, Attorney General Alberto Gonzalez refused to sign for and issue the indictments against himself and his colleagues, which would have made them immediately public.

Fitzgerald reportedly appeared with Miers and Rice that same day before the D.C. District Court.

The indictments included both President Bush and Vice President Cheney, confirming our exclusive August 2, 2005 Bush-Cheney indictment story at TomFlocco.com.

According to intelligence field reports, the appellate court judges reportedly laughed at Bush's White House counsel and former personal attorney Harriet Miers and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, saying "you can't do this."

The last ditch attempts by the White House to prevent the release of the indictments and their criminal contents were led by Miers and Rice, since Gonzalez has reportedly been indicted in an additional count for refusing to issue the original indictments as Bush's attorney general.

This, also according to intelligence sources with intimate knowledge of the facts and the events who spoke with national security expert Thomas Heneghan (www.stewwebb.com).

Importantly, the dismissals by both the district and appellate courts will likely preclude an additional appeal by the Bush administration to the United States Supreme Court, since two consecutive reversals ordinarily prevent the high court from granting relief.

This would avoid another 5-4 Supreme Court split decision similar to the controversial Bush-Gore 2000 election recount litigation which has divided the country for five years.

Miers and Rice also reportedly attempted to have the courts place a gag order on Fitzgerald and the grand jury in another attempt to obstruct justice and prevent the criminal and far-reaching contents of the indictments from becoming public.

According to the intelligence sources, there are now 28 indictments to be issued in Fitzgerald's first round�not 22�a fact that was not previously known up to the present time.

The number may have changed as a result of new information coming to light in recent days or a decision to add additional indicted officials to the first round for other reasons.

An indication of the far-reaching and expanded nature of Fitzgerald's probes of White House crime families and his independent authority to do so is found in the December 30, 2003 letter from Acting Attorney General James Comey to Fitzgerald in which Comey said "I hereby delegate to you all the authority of the Attorney General with respect to the Department's investigation into the alleged unauthorized disclosure of a CIA employee's identity; and I direct you to exercise that authority as Special Counsel independent of the supervision or control of any officer of the Department."

Comey was even more specific in another letter to Fitzgerald on February 6, 2004 when he said the Fitzgerald's authority "is plenary and includes the authority to investigate and prosecute violation of any federal criminal laws related to the underlying alleged unauthorized disclosure, as well as federal crimes committed in the course of, and with intent to interfere with, your investigation, such as perjury, obstruction of justice, destruction of evidence, and intimidation of witnesses; to conduct appeals arising out of the matter being investigation and/or prosecuted�"
Developing hard�����
www.tomflocco.com

Toolie
(10/25/2005; 03:13:35 MDT - Msg ID: 137210)
@ spotlight � News Hour
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/economy/july-dec05/bernanke_10-24.htmlI usually catch that show, thanks for pointing out what I missed.

Two quotes worth noting:

Snip: ADAM POSEN: �. Two quick points, one is in the book we did with Bernanke, all of us together wrote a chapter about the German experience. And we praised the fact that the Bundesbank facing an oil shock much like the one we face today in 1980 raised their inflation target over time, the Bundesbank was always seen as hyper conscious about inflation but the Bundesbank said we are not going to kill the economy to keep inflation down. We are going to realistic and communicate with the public; and that was a model we in that book praised and so I think that will be instructive for Ben Bernanke.

JAMES GALBRAITH: Well, the short-term challenge I have already mentioned. The long-term challenge it seems to me is the future of the world system based on the dollar reserve asset. And Chairman Bernanke has spoken to that in some recent speeches in a very interesting way. He has made very clear that he understands that stabilizing the threat that is implicit in the system we now have will require doing something about the financial position not only of the United States but of many other countries including especially developing countries, getting them out of the position where they are basically forced lenders, the poor are lending to the rich in a way which they, does them basically no good from the standpoint of their development prospects but also, puts the world on a rather unstable basis.
It will be very interesting to see whether this team at the Fed begins to address that question, not in terms of immediate policy but in terms of looking forward and designing a successor system that we might have to have recourse to should we really get to a crisis down the road. (end snip)

From my perspective in the formerly industrial mid-west, that successor system is well overdue. The generously low interest rates that we have had in the US, have had the effect of inflating all sectors of the economy that aren't subject to foreign competition. From the perspective of the Fed, one type of employment seems to be as useful as Another, as their mandate is to provide "full employment". Has the current system reached its limits now that a Delphi worker can leave his job at the factory for a career in fast-food and get a raise out of the deal � I think so.
Topaz
(10/25/2005; 04:37:51 MDT - Msg ID: 137211)
We could go on about this "inflation"...
http://www.futuresource.com/charts/micro.jsp?s=GC1%21&s=DX1%21&s=TYXY&s=CL1%21&s=&s=&s=&s=&p=D&v=15&b=LINE&d=LOW...but it's already all been said.
OK, WHY the sudden announcement of Chopper Ben? Could it be to do with a last ditch effort to sway Market psyche toward an inflationary bias.
The Bond,DX Charts confirm a reversal (temperary). We might even get back to 4.4%/85 on this Go-round but Beware, the Primary trend...anything, ANYTHING now can upset the Applecart.
spotlight
(10/25/2005; 04:53:45 MDT - Msg ID: 137212)
Toolie on Bernanke
Thank you for posting the Benanke Quote on The News Hour.
Also, for your comment. I really appreciated your taking the time and effort in doing so.

It is my opinion that we have enjoyed a free ride by having the worlds reserve currency. We got used to writing checks for goods and having the recipients of the checks turn them into US bonds that were paid off in more US bonds as they came due. Countries like Japan and China trapped themselves into pleasing their exporters, to the extent that it became addictive, keeping their industries busy and their people employed. We got the goods, they got the paper. They have been sending us goods for paper all these years.

We are now in trouble because we have abused the privilege of having the reserve currency status. That is now in the process of change.
Arcticfox
(10/25/2005; 07:13:10 MDT - Msg ID: 137213)
Chinese defector says West wrong to step up investments to China
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20051024/wl_asia_afp/francechinadefector;_ylt=AihuoaSnip:

PARIS (AFP) - A high-profile defector from China's diplomatic corps warned that Western businesses were wrong to step up investment in China, saying the political environment there was dangerously unstable.
Belgian
(10/25/2005; 07:26:18 MDT - Msg ID: 137214)
James Galbraith
What exactly is James suggesting with : ...DESIGNING A SUCCESSOR SYSTEM...?

Thanks Toolie
mikal
(10/25/2005; 07:48:39 MDT - Msg ID: 137215)
Exchange open Nov 22
http://www.ameinfo.com/70629.htmlDubai goes for gold! - AME - 10/25
Knallgold
(10/25/2005; 08:08:09 MDT - Msg ID: 137216)
Dubai
if the article is right,they go for Gold futures!?
CoBra(too)
(10/25/2005; 08:42:42 MDT - Msg ID: 137217)
Ben (Chopper) Bernanke
Seems like the Dollar, Gold and Silver are factoring in the Bernanke effect - High tech printing presses and helicopter money.

Good bye Dollar - Hello Gold!
Goldilox
(10/25/2005; 09:37:11 MDT - Msg ID: 137218)
Migrant Labor
Cliff (of Web Bot fame) gave the best explanation I have heard of the ills of globalism last night on "Mysteries of the Mind".

From the perspective of the developed countries, local labor pools are destroyed by the influx of cheap, hungry migrant labor.

From the prospective of infrastructure (like Gulf Coast reconstruction), the end product suffers from reduced skills and code compliance.

From a manufacturing perspective, lowered production costs are somewhat defrayed by rapidly rising transportation costs. JIT manufacturing also loses its advantage in transport delays of up to a year and losses on the high seas.

From the prospective of the migrant worker, having to work way from their families, often for years at a time, disrupts their family units permanently.

Except for the corporate and bankster globalists, whose concern is "profits" above all else, globalsim really looks like a "lose, lose" situation.

It may take a major global collapse to educe change, but those who forsee a return to a more local economic model, have a lot of social data supporting their side.

So now the next question is, just what else does "major change" entail?
Goldilox
(10/25/2005; 09:47:00 MDT - Msg ID: 137219)
More on "local economies"
In high school, I worked for a friend's dad on the weekends, in his independent carpet business - many years ago.

One day, I quipped something about "getting rich", and he calmly responded,

"This business is not about making anyone rich. Our goal is to provide a qualifty service to our family of customers and a comfortable living for the families of my tradesmen and employees (many of whom were his family, as well)".

It seems that ideal got lost in the last few decades, and probably best defines the local economic model.
Goldilox
(10/25/2005; 10:08:46 MDT - Msg ID: 137221)
Ben and Miers
@ OZ,

Might it be that the timing of Chopper Ben's announcement is to take the heat off the Miers appointment. Here we have a President's staff council blocking Justice's indictments of White House staff nominated to the courts that just may eventually have to hear the cases if there is conviction and appeal o the constitutional aspects.

And we thought Scalia suffered from conflicts of interest!
contrarian
(10/25/2005; 10:22:43 MDT - Msg ID: 137222)
Pizza Inflation Index
http://www.nypost.com/seven/10192005/news/regionalnews/55704.htmIn last week's Wednesday NY Post, it says that Lombardi's pizza will be having a 100th anniversary party, selling pizza for same price as in 1905 (5 cents per, versus $12.50 today).

This means that dollar has lost
100 - (0.05/12.50*100)
100 - 0.4
= 99.6 percent of its value since 1905!

Remember that next time you reach for that pepperoni slice!
Bizarro-Greenspan
(10/25/2005; 11:00:28 MDT - Msg ID: 137223)
Hi,Randy

Just poppin in to note;

"Jack of all trades ORO" appears to have won the great debate with FOA on the new reserve currency gambit.

It was a great debate,I re-read it quite a bit,always learning new things from both of them.

The Traveller/FOA flation debate was great too.

I think that one belongs in the hall of fame.

Many,many thanks to USAGOLD.

GTDM,PTP.
mikal
(10/25/2005; 11:28:41 MDT - Msg ID: 137224)
Earnings "falling short" help power paradigm shifts
http://money.cnn.com/2005/10/25/markets/cash_stocks.reut/index.htm?section=money_latestJP Morgan: Cash Could Beat Stocks
Analyst says higher short-term rates make stocks less attractive.
October 25, 2005 - Snippet:
"NEW YORK (Reuters) - Higher return on cash investments may help push stocks down in coming months, according to JP Morgan Chase & Co.'s global equity analyst, Abhijit Chakrabortti.
In the past six months, equities have returned only 1.6 percent while the return on cash investments has risen to 4.4 percent, more than double the average level of 1.8 percent in 2004, according to JP Morgan data.
"As short rates move up, so does the required return for equities, and given our negative market outlook, we believe it becomes increasingly difficult for equities to outperform cash," Chakrabortti wrote in a report to clients."
mikal
(10/25/2005; 11:35:55 MDT - Msg ID: 137225)
Asians fleeing to gold despite rising price
http://www.hindu.com/thehindu/holnus/006200510252123.htmHeavy Demand Pushes Bullion Prices Up - PTI - October 25, 2005
Goldilox
(10/25/2005; 11:52:30 MDT - Msg ID: 137226)
Rob Kirby on "Changing of the Guard"
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htmsnip:

Today, President Bush named Ben Bernanke, pending confirmation by the Senate, to replace Fed. Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan when he completes his term at the end of this coming January, 2006. This would be the same Ben Bernanke who suggested he [the Fed.] could and would "drop money from helicopters" if the economy were in serious jeopardy of slipping into deflation.

Mr. Bernanke currently serves as Chairman of the President's Council of Economic Advisors � a White House posting he assumed in June of this year after serving a stint as Fed. Governor - from Aug. 02.

Bernanke has been described by many in the main stream media as "an academic" economist. From his White House bio, we can clearly see that Mr. Bernanke has attended the right schools and based on his present position � he clearly knows his way around Washington and politics.

As an outspoken Fed Governor, this past March, Bernanke argued that,

"�over the past decade a combination of diverse forces has created a significant increase in the global supply of saving--a global saving glut--which helps to explain both the increase in the U.S. current account deficit and the relatively low level of long-term real interest rates in the world today."

-Goldilox

Chopper Ben suggests in this last statement the worst fallicy of "credit economics." "There is just too much savings around." Unfortunately, it is concentrated off-shore as US savings is virtually nil.
Goldilox
(10/25/2005; 11:58:57 MDT - Msg ID: 137227)
Inflation and Inhibition - Clif Droke
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/droke/2005/1024.htmlsnip:

In Pavlovian terms, artificial neurosis is created by a "continually increasing tension of the excitatory process." Secondly, according to Pavlov, "The inhibitory process likewise may be weakened either through strain or through collision with the excitatory process. Its weakening results in abnormal predominance of delay and other normal phenomena of which inhibition is a part, expressed also in the general behavior of the animal, struggling, impatience, unruliness, and finally as pathological phenomena, e.g., neurasthenic irritability; in man as a hypomaniac or manic condition."

The Fed understands Pavlov and has perfected his techniques as applied to the financial markets. The Fed continually relies on Pavlov to complement its monetary policies, as can be readily seen by even the most cursory examination of U.S. economic history. To see Pavlovian techniques at work we need look no further than the period between 1924-1929. This was a time of great excitation, which was brought about by the Fed's inflationary policy leading into that time frame. This produced not only speculative froth in the securities market (and also in real estate in some regions of the country) but also psycho-social exuberance among the public. This was the Pavlovian equivalent of "continually increasing tension of the excitatory process."

The "Roaring �20s" stimulus period of American history was followed by the "prolonged inhibition" of the Great Depression of the 1930s. This was part of the two-step stimulus/inhibition scheme formulated by Pavlov as it was beginning to be applied by the Fed in its monetary policies. The Fed used this to obtain greater economic control as well as control over the lives of millions of Americans.

The inhibitionary part of the Pavlovian experiment lasted for over 10 years, going into the 1940s during World War II. It was during that time that inhibition was exacerbated further through rationing and other austerity measures forced on the American public. When the inhibition phase of this period finally ceased after the war (accompanied by the bottoming of the K-wave), a massive inflationary period followed that led to the greatest expansionary phase in U.S. history up to that time.

Going back to the previous 120-year cycle bottom of 1894 (also a K-wave bottom year), one can see a correlation between the length and severity of the inhibition phase of a bear market and the length and vibrance of the subsequent bull market phase of the Fed's inflation/deflation/reflation cycle. Whenever the inhibition phase of a bear market is protracted in time, the more likely it is that the inflationary phase of the bull market that follows will last long and achieve great heights. (But when the inhibitionary phase of a bear market is shallow or short-lived, the following bull market stimulus phase is likely to be brief).

The inhibitionary phase that accompanied the bear market of 1970-74, while not as severe as the bear market 40 years prior, resulted nonetheless in a deep economic recession with profound negative consequences on public psychology (a resultant artificial neurosis?) This softening of mood during the inhibitionary bear market helped pave the way for the expansionary period of 1975-1999. The financial regulators have discovered during the course of their Pavlovian experiments that before the public can feel the "irrational exuberance" of a bull market (stimulus), it must first experience the gloom and languor of a bear market (inhibition).

This brings us back to the present. We've already seen the impact that high commodity prices are having (and will likely continue to have) in some areas of the retail marketplace, especially energy prices. Even when commodity prices subside for a time, it takes longer before prices subside on the retail level. Home heating prices are expected to double this winter, and this will act as an inhibition on consumer behavior. It will also act to psychologically pave the way for the next inflationary phase in the financial markets when the Fed is prepared to begin its next inflationary campaign.

The Fed's ability to create waves of euphoria among investors through its inflationary efforts and thereby induce speculative manias is well documented. Pavlov theorized that artificial neurosis is produced by a "continuously increasing tension of the excitatory process." Applying Pavlov's science to the economic realm, sustained inflation fits this description since it is a tension-producing stimulus.

-Goldilox

Interesting article comparing tactics of the FED to revolutionary Bolshevism.

TownCrier
(10/25/2005; 12:39:57 MDT - Msg ID: 137228)
Bizarro, on appearances
Consider, if you will, that there was a time when a Pope or two similarly appeared to have won the ancient debate with various astronomers (whether our immediate universe was earth-centered or not) as the astronomers were essentially browbeat into backing off from the engagement.

Appearances can be deceiving. Sometimes all it takes is a little time for the audience to climb themselves high enough up upon the learning curve to more properly discern which contestant was, in fact, truly nearer the mark.

I'm suggesting that you may want to reserve the right to change your mind, thus not entrenching yourself too deeply in the clay where you've currently sided.

With that said, curiosity now begs the question: on what evidence do you feel that the "new reserve currency gambit" is unfolding according to ORO's dogmatic old-school offerings? I, for one, am unaware of anything that has discredited or derailed FOA's more Coppernican explanations and predictions of our monetary movements and (re)alignments.

Randy
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(10/25/2005; 13:01:02 MDT - Msg ID: 137229)
Especially designed for those who are taking their first step...
http://www.usagold.com/gold/special/starter.html

gold ownership starter kit
Topaz
(10/25/2005; 13:32:45 MDT - Msg ID: 137230)
Todays action.
The Composite Dollar ie: the Value unit of Bond and it's Dollar numeraire, slid today as Bond Price AND DX dropped.
This Inflationary bias has not appeared in the Marketplace for yonks ...and is a testament to the Power of Suggestion re: Bernanke appointment.
Oil responded in kind, scaring the bejesus out of the SM in the process ...which highlights the enigmatic nature of the current situation.
The primary deflationary trend we've been witnessing all year and exemplified most recently in Sept (Buck and Gold UP!) is being reversal managed and will be seen in the coming days as a flash in the Pan.
Bond Prices MUST rise now to keep an illusory droopy Dollar in the Game.
TownCrier
(10/25/2005; 14:30:50 MDT - Msg ID: 137231)
What's the agenda when the New York Times takes aim at the miners and the mining of gold?
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/24/international/24GOLD.htmlHEADLINE:
The Cost of Gold | 30 Tons an Ounce
Behind Gold's Glitter: Torn Lands and Pointed Questions

The URL will take you to page 1 of 6 in this first article of a new series examining the environmental and social impacts of mining operations. (At the bottom, click the "next page" buttons to reach each of the six pages).

The conclusion I am apt to draw is that as it becomes more and more difficult, socially and economically, for companies to extend mining operations to extract their next ounce from the earth, each and every ounce that is already free-and-clear safely above ground will become that much more precious in the overall balance of constrained supply against growing demand.

Stake your claim of available gold while it's cheap.

R.
TownCrier
(10/25/2005; 14:30:58 MDT - Msg ID: 137232)
NYTimes, continued
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/25/international/americas/25GOLD.htmlHEADLINE:
The Cost of Gold | Treasure of Yanacocha
Tangled Strands in Fight Over Peru Gold Mine

The URL will take you to page 1 of 7 in this second article of the series previously mentioned.

Miners are in for tough sledding. Choose the metal before the knock-on effects of contrained supply result in yet higher future prices.

R.
Topaz
(10/25/2005; 14:32:50 MDT - Msg ID: 137233)
OZ G'lox all.
http://www.usdoj.gov/usao/iln/osc/index.htmlMr Fitzgeralds Page has just updated another letter confirming his authority in the CIA Leak matter.

I like the cut of his Jib!
TownCrier
(10/25/2005; 14:45:22 MDT - Msg ID: 137234)
Federal Reserve buys Treasuries outright in open market
http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh76646_2005-10-25_14-39-44_n25217005_newsmlDespite a rate in the fed funds market trading in-line with the FOMC target of 3.75 percent, the trading desk of the Federal Reserve nonetheless felt like welcoming the Chair appointment of Ben Bernanke with a sort of paper parade uniquely suited to him.

To that end, the Fed today created a fresh $1 billion to shower down as lendable reserves for the nation's commercial banking network while the Fed concurrently bought Treasury coupons outright for its own account, targeting coupon maturities ranging from January 31, 2006 to October 31, 2006.

Earlier in the day the Fed had more temporarily goosed the network with a fresh $1.75 billion provided through overnight repos at the friendly rate of 3.699 percent.

Given that money creation is this easy at among any goverment/central bank of the world, now you know why astute and well-heeled savers universally choose gold as a prudent complement to their portfolio.

R.
TownCrier
(10/25/2005; 14:59:35 MDT - Msg ID: 137235)
Heavy demand pushes bullion prices up
http://www.hindu.com/thehindu/holnus/006200510252123.htmMumbai, Oct 25. (PTI): Both gold and silver attracted heavy demand ahead of Diwali along with firm global advices and rose smartly on the bullion market here today.

Buying activity in both the metals was hectic despite rising prices, a retail jeweller said...

Gold rose smartly in in the Asian market on speculation that hedge funds may increase their holdings of the precious metal, dealers said.

^---(from url)---^

Universal Savings Asset - GOLD.

USAGOLD.

Call toll free 1-800-869-5115 for a friendly and knowledgable broker to help you design a diversification strategy that's right for you.

R.
TownCrier
(10/25/2005; 15:03:47 MDT - Msg ID: 137236)
Good overview of Dubai's DGCX trading schedule
http://za.today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=businessNews&storyID=2005-10-25T114107Z_01_BAN542007_RTRIDST_0_OZABS-MINERALS-EMIRATES-EXCHANGE-20051025.XMLDUBAI (Reuters) - Dubai said on Tuesday it would launch a gold futures exchange on November 22...

The exchange will initially trade Monday to Friday, from 10 am until 11.30 pm local time (0600 to 1930 GMT).

Seven-day trading will start in the first quarter of 2006.

Dubai, a trading port in the United Arab Emirates, has long been a hub for the physical gold industry in the Middle East, India and Pakistan.

The city's famous gold souk is also open all week.

^---(from url)---^

Change is good.

R.
contrarian
(10/25/2005; 15:16:31 MDT - Msg ID: 137237)
Stock Market
SM seems to make no sense nowadays. Up and down like a seesaw, never going anywhere, just staying in same range. Seems like it's trying to find a direction, and I suspect that direction will be down, violently at a surprising and shocking turning point. Just a gut feeling. Honestly, I can't see it suddenly going up, and the increasing instability and agitation has got to eventually take its toll I imagine, at least on the overall mood and perception (as stocks are built on perception I think more than intrinsic value, unlike gold).
TownCrier
(10/25/2005; 15:28:25 MDT - Msg ID: 137238)
The lure of gold sends its price sky-rocketing
http://www.newkerala.com/news.php?action=fullnews&id=4122825 Oct 2005, Washington -- A 47 percent rise in gold sales in India coupled with an 11 per cent increase in China over the last one year has pushed the price of the precious metal to 500 dollars an ounce, the highest in 17 years.

India and China together consume 80 per cent or more of the entire gold mined today.

But much of the gold left to be mined is microscopic and is being wrung from the earth at enormous environmental cost, often in some of the poorest corners of the world, says a report in the New York Times.

...However the desire to hoard gold is not limited to households in India or the Middle East, either.

The United States is the world's second-largest consumer of gold and is also the world's largest holder of gold reserves. The government has 8,134 tons secured in vaults, about 122 billion dollars worth.

The Federal Reserve and other major central banks renewed an agreement last year to severely restrict sales from their reserves, offering, in effect, a price support to gold, says the NY Times report.

That price is not simply a matter of supply and demand, but of market psychology. Gold is bought by anxious investors when the dollar is weak and the economy uncertain.

The New York Times report was based on months-long examination including tours of gold mines in the American West, Latin America, Africa and Europe, that provided a rare look inside an insular industry with a troubled environmental legacy and an uncertain future.

For instance to make a ring of an ounce of gold, miners dig up and haul away 30 tons of rock and sprinkle it with diluted cyanide, which separates the gold from the rock.

Before they are through, miners at some of the largest mines move a half million tons of earth a day, pile it in mounds that can rival the Great Pyramids, and drizzle the ore with the poisonous solution for years.

The Times report says that some metal mines, including gold mines, have become the near-equivalent of nuclear waste dumps that must be tended in perpetuity. Hard-rock mining generates more toxic waste than any other industry in the United States, according to the US Environmental Protection Agency.

The agency estimated last year that the cost of cleaning up metal mines could reach 54 billion dollars.

^----(from url)----^

It is distinctly interesting that the NYTimes suggests the notion of a "price support" by central banking practices when, in fact, the greater pricing effect by the financial community is one of price containment/suppression through the effect of unallocated gold accounts, loans, and derivatives, all unmentioned in the Times articles.

One has to wonder whether the NYTimes is in this current activity the mouthpiece as certain players begin to work an angle for promoting the possibility that the U.S. Treasury consider selling off some of its gold reserves to feed into the voracious demand so that miners can give Mother Earth a respite from their sacking.

That seems to be the delicate trial balloon being floated as a whisper on the wind in the articles' so many more carefully orchestrated words. Or is it simple the ramping up of a social movement against miners' remaining free degrees of latitude of activity, to usher in an era of more government oversight and control?

Either way, the ownership of above-ground METAL is the place to be. Call USAGOLD-Centennial and get your fair piece of the action.

R.
spotlight
(10/25/2005; 15:42:11 MDT - Msg ID: 137239)
Towncrier/ China/Conaco Oil
Dear sir,
I would appreciate your assessment of the recent China bid that was not allowed to go forward. The US congress claimed it was a matter of national security.


My question is: Was it really a matter of national security?
It does seem that with our own shortage of oil,we should safegaurd what we have.

Also,I understand they made another bid involving Maytag.

Was that a matter of national security also?


Does China now feel that they have to look elsewhere to get value for their dollars?
Sundeck
(10/25/2005; 15:59:33 MDT - Msg ID: 137240)
A "successor system"...
Belgian msg#: 137214 asks:

"What exactly is James [Galbraith] suggesting with : ...DESIGNING A SUCCESSOR SYSTEM...?"


Sundeck: Are you asking a "rhetorical" question, Sir Belgian?

Certainly it is not talked about on the front pages of the main-stream media. Although the threat to the dollar gets quite a bit of airing in some of the more sophisticated quarters, seldom does commentary go to the next step...almost like "don't mention the Devil, or you may cause it to appear!"

Galbraith's offhand comment probably indicates that a new monetary system is presently being talked about quietly in the "ward rooms", as it were, of the various "ships of state" around the world...not to spook the sailors or the passengers, mind you, but seriously nonetheless.

Just thinking out loud...

Cheers Sir Belgian

:-)
TownCrier
(10/25/2005; 16:15:40 MDT - Msg ID: 137241)
spotlight,
The various intrigues and manuevers among goverment over national security and corporate operations in general are not my forte, so I'll gladly defer your inquiry to anyone better suited to field questions of that nature.

However, your final question is an infield fly: Does China now feel that they have to look elsewhere to get value for their dollars?

Just ask yourself, how would you feel? What good are dollars that you cannot spend, that is, either because they cascade in value as you try to dishoard them, or because you are barred from shopping in the market of your choice and/or denied the goods of your choice?

If you're the one, like China, seemingly captivated by your dollars, you might as well quietly cooperate superficially with the status quo to utilize the advantages of a calm market while working below the radar toward an exit strategy to emerge outside the prison, only slightly worse for the wear, under a more functional and supportive monetary regime.

R.
USAGOLD Daily Market Report
(10/25/2005; 16:39:54 MDT - Msg ID: 137242)
Page Update!
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Daily Gold Market Report has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.

TUESDAY Market Excerpts

Gold climbs $8 to 1-week high on fund-led rally

October 25 (from Reuters, MarketWatch) -- U.S. gold futures surged 1.7 percent to end at a one-week peak on Tuesday, as investors added to positions on the back of a weaker dollar, firmer oil prices and heightened geopolitical jitters, traders said.

COMEX December gold contracts climbed $7.70 to end at $474.70.

The market came to life at the New York opening, after having edged higher in European trade, on a rush of investment fund buying that shoved gold back above the $470 level following the recent sell-off that sent it down toward $462.

"Strong European and weaker U.S. confidence data has prompted a steady fall by the dollar today, triggering a return of bullish sentiment to the precious complex with all the metals posting good gains," said James Moore, analyst at TheBullionDesk.com.

Moore said he saw the market as having completed a recent consolidation phase, because funds again looked keen to push prices higher.

"Certainly this is fund buying...and I think it's all triggered by the euro rising," said Leonard Kaplan, president of Prospector Asset Management.

Gold tends to climb with a weaker U.S. currency because the metal gets cheaper for those holding foreign currencies.

Gold also got a boost as oil rose to $62 a barrel, while U.S. stocks eased. Higher crude supports gold because investors often use the metal as a hedge against inflation.

Uncertainty among investors also has propped up gold prices because hard assets like the precious metals are gaining interest, traders said.

Nell Sloane, an analyst at NSFutures.com said in daily commentary, "the foreign-exchange markets apparently think he [Fed Chair appointee Ben Bernanke] is less concerned with budget deficits -- and that could be why the dollar has sagged and in turn yielded some minor support to gold."

Indeed, "once the world, particularly the foreigners who have been supporting our massive current-account deficit, becomes more and more familiar with many of Mr. Bernanke's past remarks, they will become increasingly less inclined to be 'long' the U.S. dollar," said Richard Sacks, a managing partner at Brick Capital Partners LP.

This has "bullish longer-term implications for gold, and conversely, bearish implications for the U.S. dollar as well as the ongoing willingness of foreign capital to sustain our massive imbalances."

---(see url for full news, 24-hr newswire, market quotes)---
TownCrier
(10/25/2005; 16:53:00 MDT - Msg ID: 137243)
Gold: Boosted by declining dollar
http://www.sharecast.com/cgi-bin/sharecast/story.cgi?story_id=561093LONDON (SHARECAST) - Gold futures jumped ahead, reaching a 7-day high on Tuesday, sparked by a weaker dollar and stronger oil prices.

Reports that bomb parts were found in luggage at a San Diego airport terminal also created concern about potential terrorist attacks on US soil.

^---(from url)---^

Speaking of airports and terrorism, the universal 'flight' from dollars and other forms of paper 'savings' around the world into the lasting security of tangible gold is one that shall not be put off by any number of bomb parts, airport security alerts and airline cancellations.

Consolidate your earnings into the form of wealth worthy of your life's efforts and will to survive and thrive against all odds and all evils that the world throws in your way.

R.
mikal
(10/25/2005; 18:11:03 MDT - Msg ID: 137244)
Refco swindles stir slumberers
http://www.freemarketnews.com/WorldNews.asp?nid=1468 ICEBERG'S TIP HANG REFCO SHORTS? - FMNN - Oct 25
Three paragraphs and a link summarize storm cloud over "financial markets in general".
Chris Powell
(10/25/2005; 19:23:47 MDT - Msg ID: 137245)
Market analyst Grandich supports GATA in Canadian TV interview
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/3403Latest GATA dispatch.



To subscribe to GATA's dispatches, send an e-mail to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com
Goldilox
(10/25/2005; 19:41:20 MDT - Msg ID: 137246)
Gold Movies
OK, it's a stretch, but Grace Kelly's Louis IV party dress in "To Catch a Thief" is the most stunning golden fabric I have ever seen.

Grace ain't too hard on the eyes, either!
David Linkley
(10/25/2005; 21:25:56 MDT - Msg ID: 137247)
Gold and the COT
It's almost been a generation since the last dollar crises and gold's rise as the ultimate currency. The COT of today is making the same mistakes their fathers did back in the 70's, trying to short a primary worldwide gold bull market. The Bernanke pick sealed the deal and the run to get something of value for depreciating dollars will accelerate and the price of gold will benefit. Our government grows more ineffective daily under a president with an approval rating of 37%. The Fed rate increases will kill the economy causing tax revenues to fall, expenditures to rise and deficits to skyrocket. Protect yourself, be prepared for the coming financial debacle. As for the COT, many won't survive the next 5 years.
Belgian
(10/26/2005; 00:18:23 MDT - Msg ID: 137248)
@Sundeck (J.Galbraith)
It was not a rhetorical question, Sir ! Galbraith's suggestive question + the questioning of the dollar's reserve status, in the same text...is indeed suggesting there's venom in the devil's tail.

And an "academic" Ben with straithforward talk (no Span-riddles and conondrums) might signal that some fundamental changes (on IMS) are more probable as to break with the Greenspan era ? Bernanke mentioned the global excess (glut) of ($)"savings", didn't he. *How* does one (Ben-helikopter) stop and reverse this (global) unbalancing fenomenon (dollar crash - ?)!?

Add to this that P.Lamy, head of WTO, wants Saudi Arabia in WTO, this year '05. Add also that South African Standard Bank has a seat in Dubai's gold-tower (no need to worry about ME gold-futures, Knallgold). And remember that BIS went of the Swiss gold franc to SDR as unit of account(what does this mean-?).

Reread Miner49er's "A new breed of rabbit" on the golden chalkbord. Focus on the alinea where Miner talks about "Financial Arbitrage Socialism" and think (academic)helikopters.

There will be NO bull (or bear) market in gold anymore...There is a GOLD REVALUATION in progress and it is not happening in a ($) vacuum.

Any idea how much goldmetal there is (concentrated) on the Arabian desertsands !? Taking into account that estimated Indian goldmetal might have reached already 12.000 tonnes !

Thanks Sundeck.




TownCrier
(10/26/2005; 01:13:05 MDT - Msg ID: 137249)
Gold price history
http://www.usagold.com/reference/prices/history.htmlBottom line: you can't travel back in time to do your buying, so you'd better just make the best of it and be getting on with your acquisition program, buying what gold you need as your funds allow.

Nice graph, heading off the page toward bigger and better things.

Thankyouverymuch.

R.
Topaz
(10/26/2005; 02:19:34 MDT - Msg ID: 137250)
A Two Day flash in the Pan?
http://www.futuresource.com/charts/micro.jsp?s=GC1%21&s=DX1%21&s=TYXY&s=CL1%21&s=&s=&s=&s=&p=D&v=15&b=LINE&d=LOW
What a Crock!
The Bernanke announcement has hardly had a chance to sink in and ALREADY the Primary Trend is re-exerting itself.

The rest of this Month should see PoG meander with the alt-Currencies ...curious that Nymex Delivery Page is chronically unavailable lately ...was it something I said??
The Invisible Hand
(10/26/2005; 02:33:18 MDT - Msg ID: 137251)
Even the establishment (Financial Times) remembers
http://news.ft.com/cms/s/b087f0c4-45be-11da-981b-00000e2511c8.html Gold finds strength in Bernanke nomination
By Maria Silander
Published: October 26 2005 03:00

SNIP
Analysts said the nomination of Mr Bernanke was a positive for gold, due to comments the former Federal Reserve member made two years ago that the Fed would "drop money from helicopters if necessary" to counteract the threat of deflation.
Topaz
(10/26/2005; 02:45:33 MDT - Msg ID: 137252)
Comex Deliveries.
http://www.nymex.com/media/delivery.pdfThere you go, we can see little action of late in the Warehouse so I'd be prepared to call Comex a non-issue 'till Dec ...watch this Space closely through Oct-Nov roll-over however.
The alt-$Gold chart also shows a return to Flat-Line indicating "things" have cooled somewhat on the Metal Trading front.

For those few of us waiting for what will probably be the last pull-back in PoG to add the Icing to our Physical Cake, that wait is almost over imo.

For those others keen to enter into a Physical Gold purchase for the first or second time, lured by absolutely impeccable market conditions to take up the Metal, I'd REALLY not dally or hold off ..."get you some" without hesitation.
The Invisible Hand
(10/26/2005; 03:23:36 MDT - Msg ID: 137253)
An anti gold standard hysteric predisposed to statism
http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=13983Ben Bernanke - Manna or Mange for Gold Bugs?
By Tim Wood

SNIPS
The curious thing is that Greenspan's successor, Ben Bernanke, is an hysteric. An anti gold standard hysteric predisposed to statism.
+
Ben Bernanke has devoted a portion of his intellectual capital to researching evidence that shows that the gold standard was a principle cause of the Great Depression, and that countries which retained the standard prolonged their misery. He is a gold standard antagonist
+
That said the early Greenspan was a romantic who believed that gold was an objective lodestar to restrain visible political avarice. In that he was partially correct.
Bernanke, by contrast, is a utilitarian pragmatist; even a relativist in the mode of GALBRAITH (emphasis by The Invisible Hand). He indirectly acknowledges that a gold standard was unsuitable to the designs of welfare statists seeking deficit funded patronage. But unlike Greenspan his concern is not ideological, only practical � that the panjandrums of the Federal Reserve maintain price stability at all costs.

==
Was this written by Puplava's Tim Wood?
Sundeck
(10/26/2005; 03:57:26 MDT - Msg ID: 137254)
James Grant in today's NYT
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/26/opinion/26grant.html?th&emc=thFuture Shock at the Fed
By JAMES GRANT
...a few comments on Bernanke's new assignment...

:-)
Goldilox
(10/26/2005; 05:30:31 MDT - Msg ID: 137255)
Sinclair on Bernanke and the White House
http://www.jsmineset.com/snip:

Ben Bernanke's appointment as Fed Chairman was perceived by the market as being "business as usual" at the Whitehouse so not surprisingly the dollar came under pressure today.

While both the Fed and the Administration would like you to believe that the latter is independent of government, Bernanke's statements during his tenure at the Fed suggest otherwise.

His willingness to establish inflation targets to gauge the level of short term interest rates as a monetary tool might result in a world class backfire if the skewed indices of inflation are the targeted items.

Meanwhile, ongoing comments that Valerie Plame was not outed - and revealing her name was not a crime - is a masterful accomplishment in pure legalese. But it is hollow in that it is just twisting the system. This outing blew the cover off Brewster Jennings, a CIA cover company operating in Saudi Arabia and all their contacts with which Plame was associated at the time of the nefarious act. Whether or not she had been in Europe for some period of time is totally irrelevant. That is a disaster of enormous proportions for each individual involved and is of a serious criminal nature.

The destruction of a cover company in Saudi Arabia and elsewhere may well have destroyed twenty years of effective intelligence collection by publicly hanging out to dry Brewster Jennings and not Valerie Plame alone.

Every bit of confidence that is compromised weakens � especially in the intelligence business - the overall balance. The undeniable political nature of Bernanke's appointment and pending indictment of members of the Administration required the equity market indices and the dollar to be supported again today by the wild take off of the short side of the huge spread positions held by those that would suffer most by a collapse of confidence.

The shocking revelation yesterday that governors of the Federal Reserve system are free to trade in US equities - and one would assume US Treasuries - is another slice off the confidence block. Those that need to know this have now been informed.

COT can play its games and the huge spread traders operating the equity indices can rage in the marketplace but it all will come to a tragic end (for them).

Gold is headed to and through $529 and it will be in this chapter of the gold price drama that it will occur. As gold approaches those levels, expect exactly what you have seen over the past two weeks.

-Goldilox

Although I agree in principle, Brewster Jennings was about as transparent as Air America or Capital Cities, who bought ABC about 20 years back. The general public did not know its origins, but founder and board member (CIA Director) Bill Casey spoke volumes to anyone who did "due diligence".

And we speak so glibly of "freedom of the press". During the Reagan years, this major press outlet was openly owned and operated by the CIA - until they sold it to Disney, Jeb Bush's pet corporation.

It is this very manipulation of "everything" by the government that is eroding any chance of "free market" success.

"Manipulated free markets" is one of the Orwellian thangs that sets so much of the non-AA world against TPTB.
mas
(10/26/2005; 05:50:40 MDT - Msg ID: 137256)
Another View, from the Privateer
Let's just say if he is right we are watching the collapse as it unfolds. Is Syria the next target and will this happen in the next two weeks?

Painted Right Into A Corner:
Everyone who understands the situation (which does not include the paint by numbers crowd) knows that
the Fed has put themselves into a corner from which there is no escape. They have no choice but to raise
interest rates because if they don't, the "inflationary expectations" that they are so desperate to keep in
check will mushroom even faster. They know that with US debt levels at their present magnitudes, every
new rate rise (even if they continue the 0.25% "baby steps" they have been indulging in since June 2004)
has the potential to choke off consumer spending and pull the MAJOR prop out from under the entire
economy. They know that if they DO choke off consumer spending, then the "open market actions"
which they have used to offset the rate rises so far will no longer be adequate to the task.
The Fed also knows that the recent strength of the US Dollar is not primarily due to the expectation of
more rate rises, but due to the repatriation of overseas capital by US businesses and individuals to
postpone a meltdown in their balance sheets. They know that this process is finite, one can only
repatriate one's capital once. They know that as the process continues a growing investment deficit is
going to be added to the trade deficit in the monthly US current account deficit figures. They know that
when the repatriation is exhausted, the US Dollar will be hanging in mid air with nothing at all to support
it, except the continued "demand" of foreign Central Banks.
The US money manipulators and the US economic (and imperial) political establishment know that the
system as they have known and loved it is now at the total mercy of the "inflationary expectations" of
Americans and the hard-eyed estimation of national interest by foreigners - notably Chinese foreigners.
The imperial establishment has a tried and true remedy for all such potential crises. They distract, and the
distraction with the most impact is always a war. The past week has seen cross-border incursions by US
troops into Syria, and now President Bush is demanding a quick UN meeting to address the "reports" of
Syrian complicity in the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. And there is also
Iran, on the other side of the present US "enclave" of Iraq. Desperate times call for desperate measures.
The Fed is not the only part of the US political establishment to have painted themselves into a corner.

It's All Coming To A Head - Fast:
The Fed's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets on November 1. Two things would surprise
the markets. The minor surprise would come with a rate rise of MORE THAN 0.25%. The major
surprise would come if there is no rate rise at all. The chances of that happening are next to non-existent,
if for no other reason than it would "surprise" the markets. The thing the Fed has avoided most carefully
is surprising the markets. On November 3, the European Central Bank (ECB) meets in Frankfurt,
Germany. The ECB has kept rates at their present 2.0% level for more than two years. They have not
raised their rates for more than FIVE years. For more than a year, "price inflation" as measured by the
ECB has exceeded their official rates. The pressure to start lifting is very high.
Right now, the situation in the US is simple. The Fed, like any Central Bank, has always been the main
engine of genuine inflation - an increase in the total stock of money. Right now, to an extent unmatched
since the 1970s, the Fed is fighting a losing battle in their efforts to keep "inflationary expectations" in
check. At the end of the 1970s, the battle was finally "won" when the Fed stopped "targeting interest
rates" and the Fed Funds Rate spiked to 20% plus. This time, that is NOT an option that either the Fed,
the political establishment, or the Administration would voluntarily accept as they did in 1979.
That leaves only one (temporary) "solution", a distraction of a magnitude sufficient to take the minds of
Americans off their spiralling costs of living. If it is going to happen at all, it will have to be SOON.
mas
(10/26/2005; 06:13:14 MDT - Msg ID: 137257)
This guy is a waste of everyones time. (And Money!)
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/4377586.stm

The "joker". He's had six month's to do something and after four month's hasn't done anything. Ah, a true politician?

Blair to map out European agenda

Tony Blair will be mapping out his hopes for the next two months
UK Prime Minister Tony Blair is to set out his plans for the final two months of the UK's European Union presidency.
He is expected to tell the EU to stop looking in on itself and remind MEPs about the competition it faces from countries such as India and China.

And you say, what does this have do to with gold. Well who sold their gold at rock bottom prices?
Seriuosly would you really even listen to someone that sold your savings? I wouldn't and I assume neither would the rest of the EU.
Clink!
(10/26/2005; 06:44:12 MDT - Msg ID: 137258)
China - @ spotlight, TC
http://reese.king-online.com/Reese_20051026/index.phpI can't say that I always agree with that curmudgeon Charlie Reese, but he often makes interesting points. Today's column (see URL) is topical, as it addresses China. If you follow his thesis that China believes it is waging a war, let us not forget that wars, even economic ones, are extremely expensive. We wonder at the motivation for China to continue to take potentially worthless IOUs to the tune of hundreds of billions, but maybe someone in Beijing thinks this is a really cheap way of getting the US to not only bankrupt itself, but to eliminate its middle class (a bastion of democracy) and its manufacturing base (a bastion of wealth) in the process. Wasn't it Sun Tzu who said (something to the effect that) the best way to defeat an enemy is to let him destroy himself ?

C!
Black Blade
(10/26/2005; 08:58:45 MDT - Msg ID: 137259)
Invisible Hand
Yes that is the same Tim Wood. He once called me "scathing" in a response to an article he wrote about forward selling and the Barrick hedgebook. I thought it quite amusing and even humorous but I still like Tim.

- Black Blade
Goldilox
(10/26/2005; 09:19:54 MDT - Msg ID: 137260)
MASS LAYOFFS IN SEPTEMBER 2005
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/mmls.nr0.htmsnip:

Mass layoff data for September 2005 reflect the impact of Hurricane
Katrina on workers in Louisiana and Mississippi and, to a lesser extent,
the impact of Hurricane Rita on workers in Texas. In September 2005,
employers took 2,069 mass layoff actions, seasonally adjusted, as measured
by new filings for unemployment insurance benefits during the month, the
Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today.
Each action involved at least 50 persons from a single establishment, and
the number of workers involved totaled 257,454, on a seasonally adjusted
basis. (See table 1.) The number of layoff events in September rose by
927 to 2,069, the highest number of events for any month since November
2001 and the fourth highest number of events since the program began in
April 1995. The number of associated initial claims increased by 129,988
from August to 257,544 and was at its highest total for any month since the
series high in September 2001. In the manufacturing sector, 422 mass
layoff events were reported during September 2005, seasonally adjusted,
resulting in 54,245 initial claims; both figures were higher than a month
earlier. (See table 1.)

From January through September 2005, the total number of events
(seasonally adjusted), at 11,884, was lower than in January-September
2004 (12,054), while the number of initial claims (seasonally adjusted),
at 1,309,263, was higher (1,213,262).

-Goldiox

The storm-related bone pile numbers are truly grim. I look for a whimpy retail Christmas to put the first nail in the SM coffin.

Yesterday, they announced that existing home sales boomed from the one-time event of displaced Gulf reisdents buying elsewhere. This is unsustainable, but might carry forward for a few months. Then . . .
Galearis
(10/26/2005; 10:29:52 MDT - Msg ID: 137261)
The great fiscal myth-makers of the twentieth century
http://www.lafn.org/politics/gvdc/Natl_Debt_Chart.htmlYep, we have the same pattern in CANADA with the Liberal Party vs the CONservative Party.

Those folks know the difference between a pickle and a pork barrel. Or perhaps the CONservative element just knows its friends better(?).

FWIW.

G.
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(10/26/2005; 10:41:12 MDT - Msg ID: 137262)
These little 'Tens' are going fast -- they make for GREAT Christmas gifts!
http://www.usagold.com/gold/special/tens.html

October Buyers' Group II
crown
Assorted Gold French 10 Francs
Ceres, Napoleon III, Roosters.
French 10 francs

Stock up for the Holidays!

Goldilox
(10/26/2005; 12:36:35 MDT - Msg ID: 137263)
Amazon.com as indicator?
Reported earlier, Amazon.com, the leader in online retail and "flagship" for internet commerce got a 13% haircut after hours yesterday and continuing into today's trading.

Although they beat the street by $0.02, their projections for the Christmas season scared off a lot of investors.

I guess those hundreds of thousands of displaced Gulf residents won't be ordering Christmas gifts online this year!

Ouch for Amazon!
Ouch for UPS and FEDEX!

This looks like potential demand reduction for the gas guzzling transports.

The "house of cards" is experiencing ill winds.
Goldilox
(10/26/2005; 12:53:50 MDT - Msg ID: 137264)
Felix Rohatyn
Former US Ambassador to France Felix Rohatyn just told CNBC that Congress' reaction to Dubya's call for spending cuts is exemplified by Sen. Stevens' threat to resign if his Eskimo pork bridge is cut from appropriations.

He suggests we have created an unsustainable debt-based economic mechanism that is not entirely controllable.

Although he quickly adds that this is not financial Armaggeddon in his view, he says we should expect fallout and volatility as a result of our "creation".

The biggest issue is in not knowing where the "biggest risk" lies. He adds that China is not that risk, but it more lies in someone who is a "huge" debtor, not directly mentioning, but circumventing the interviewer's questions about GSEs.
contrarian
(10/26/2005; 13:26:56 MDT - Msg ID: 137265)
Greed
Yes, Goldilox, it is the sickening greed of a child who has to have what it wants no matter what. Like the opening scene of "Whatever Happened to Baby Jane", where the child star Jane Hudson (Bette Davis' character as a child) screams in front of the crowd to her cowed and humiliated father, "I WANT MY ICE CREAM AND I WANT IT NOW! I'm the one who makes money in this family!!"

I think onlookers should take note of that Alaskan and see he's had too much of the midnight sun...and that the paper dollar is on a one-way trip to oblivion.
TownCrier
(10/26/2005; 13:53:27 MDT - Msg ID: 137266)
Puerto Rico banks sink as accounting woes worsen
http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh13953_2005-10-26_19-08-50_n26350934_newsmlNEW YORK, Oct 26 (Reuters) - Puerto Rico's banking industry has become a regulatory mess.

With investor confidence shaken by accusations of bad accounting at three top financial institutions ... the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has changed an informal accounting probe into a formal one.

The companies have the same auditor, PricewaterhouseCoopers.

"It's an embarrassing situation all the way around for Pricewaterhouse and the bank regulators," said Thomas Monaco, an analyst at Moors & Cabot Capital Markets in New York.

Investors have fled.

Faulty accounting had previously led investors to view the companies as "great growth stocks," Monaco said.

^---(from url)---^

One has to wonder if this will have further-reaching implications for PricewaterhouseCoopers and their various clients.

In any case, some investors become so fixated upon the nominal increase of their digits in monetary form that they overlook the wisdom of consolidating their income and earnings with the enduring wealth of tangible, hard assets such as gold.

Get diversified. Call USAGOLD-Centennial for a strategy that's right for you. 1-800-869-5115

R.
TownCrier
(10/26/2005; 14:02:25 MDT - Msg ID: 137267)
Dollar may slide on White House staff indictments
http://today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=reutersEdge&storyID=2005-10-26T191146Z_01_ROB668972_RTRIDST_0_PICKS-BUSH-LEAK-FOREX-DC.XMLNEW YORK (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar may weaken, along with stock and bond prices, analysts say, if the investigation of the leak of a CIA agent's name results in indictments against White House insiders.

The grand jury investigation is due to conclude by Friday ... some investors fear the investigation may even taint Vice President Dick Cheney.

"Any indication that the investigation is widening beyond the simple pointing of fingers as to who leaked Plame's name to the press is an extremely dangerous development -- so stay on your toes," John Hardy, market strategist at Danish-based Saxo Bank, said in a research note.

...any indicted officials were expected to resign immediately.

If indictments are brought, Bush is likely to make a public statement to try to reassure Americans that he is committed to honesty and integrity in government.

^----(from url)----^

A diversified portfolio is essential to individual well-being through good times and bad. What are you waiting for -- the hard lesson of a burnt hand?

R.
Topaz
(10/26/2005; 14:41:52 MDT - Msg ID: 137268)
Vacuous uncertainty.
http://www.futuresource.com/charts/micro.jsp?s=GC1%21&s=DX1%21&s=TYXY&s=CL1%21&s=&s=&s=&s=&p=D&v=15&b=LINE&d=LOWThe vacuum created by announcing the new Fed Chairman has set the Stage for an unholy rout in the coming days which will no doubt be fanned by goings on in Washington.

It's as if the reins have been handed to the Spectre of a Systemic Suicide Pilot hell bent on Hari-kari.

The Lid on DX 90 has been well and truly removed ...and with it any notion that Future expectations will in any way provide an accurate reflection of the Present.

Sayonara System!
USAGOLD Daily Market Report
(10/26/2005; 15:15:06 MDT - Msg ID: 137269)
Page Update!
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Daily Gold Market Report has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.

WEDNESDAY Market Excerpts

October 26 (from Reuters) -- U.S. gold futures settled slightly lower on Wednesday in choppy trading, mirroring the euro's move down against the dollar.

COMEX December gold retreated to $473, down $1.70, after touching an eight-day high of $476.10.

Gold had been higher earlier on fund and spec buying as more investors were paying attention to hard assets like commodities after gold recently hit an 18-year high and crude oil commanded $70 a barrel for the first time ever.

Analysts said gold could revisit its recent highs of $480.25, basis spot, and $483.10 in futures, in the coming days. Some have said that a test of the psychological $500 level is possible, if the rally gains enough traction.

UBS analyst John Reade said gold looked less likely to be hit with a heavy blow of fund long liquidation, as concerns about inflation and the dollar persist.

----(see url for full news, 24-hr newswire, market quotes)---
TownCrier
(10/26/2005; 16:20:45 MDT - Msg ID: 137270)
I had some e-mail inquiries on this one...
http://www.usagold.com/goldenchalkboard/gc_miner49er.htmlMiner49er's commentary on "A new breed of rabbit" as mentioned by Belgian this morning can be found at the URL above.

Scroll to nearly the bottom of the page to find it directly.

R.
CoBra(too)
(10/26/2005; 17:30:44 MDT - Msg ID: 137271)
Tu Felix Austria nube ... @ Goldilox
was the Austrian (Empire's)diplomatic response for centuries and it worked relatively well for almost 900 years.

Felix Rohatyn's ways and means to resurrect a bankrupt New York City was lauded at the time (I've had the chance to meet him at the Vienna Sacher Hotel for breakfast- and I know he was pretty pissed with spending time on a month vacation for prime music and having to talk to me on his economic and currency views).
He may now be old and wise enough to really state the condition the US Empire is in - or maybe it has become so utterly clear,that even a loud and clear description would already be embarassing to any one in the know ...

... and these kind of guys have never ever "officially" accepted the role gold has played for "ever"!

Gold was officially buried with Bretton Woods I and was again executed by a firing squad of World Bank and IMF firing their SDR's as replacements.

Guess, we're back to the currency drawing board. As always some perpetrators have taken advantage of the total lack of real wheights and measures ... and will keep defending the indenfensible "Alamo" to the last "Buck"!

Gute Nacht - cb2



spikedog
(10/26/2005; 18:43:14 MDT - Msg ID: 137272)
Re: Goldilox, UPS, Fedex, et al
I can tell you that volumes being shipped this fall season are running 20-30% over last year. One wonders whether people are: 1)doing more shopping online to avoid using their cars, 2)getting an early start on the shopping season, 3)running up the credit cards in a final hurrah before "the bartender announces last call", 4)other?

Any thoughts or comments appreciated.

Spikedog
David Linkley
(10/26/2005; 19:16:41 MDT - Msg ID: 137273)
Natural gas outlook
Today the CEO of Encana said that unless there is a warmer than normal winter, there WILL be gas shortages and rationing this winter. The next 12 -18 months are going to get very interesting in the equity markets. Gold is looking better by the minute.
MK
(10/26/2005; 19:20:09 MDT - Msg ID: 137274)
CBII
Appreciate your thinking and comments as always. . .

Here's the problem with going back to the "currency drawing boards."

The United States is no longer in a position to lead.

Europe doesn't want to lead.

Asia wouldn't even consider leadership.

The Third World is just hoping it can catch a break.

Leaving aside gold ownership for a moment, from your well-studied depth of knowledge can you venture a guess as to where all of this might end up -- with respect to "going back to the currency drawing boards"?

As Bernanke grabs for the golden ring, perhaps he will find that he grabbed a hornet's nest.

As an aside I am willing to listen to anyone who can get us to first base on this one. . . .
David Linkley
(10/26/2005; 19:24:10 MDT - Msg ID: 137275)
Indictments tommorrow?
If indictment(s) come as expected either tommorrow or Friday I wouldn't be surprised to see James Baker and some of W's father's "crew" back in the White House to yet again bail out his failing son. With Hillary on deck for the next election the US is busy self-inflicting wounds at a furious pace. I know there are great leaders out there and by god we need some now.
David Linkley
(10/26/2005; 19:35:48 MDT - Msg ID: 137276)
CBII
Hi MK,
The US I believe will lead the coming currency talks following the next serious dollar decline (Bretton Woods III?) because in the land of the blind the one eyed man is king. Of course the US will have to agree to get the deficits under control and "wrap" a new gold cover clause around the dollar. Your right, who else at this point in history can do it. My guess is it will be our last hoorah as the worlds undisputed leader. Until gold is somehow placed in the center of the world's economic system, we will continue to lurch from crises to crises. Thanks for having such a terrific board
Chris Powell
(10/26/2005; 21:35:03 MDT - Msg ID: 137277)
Dollar's share of central bank reserves rose in 2004
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/3405Looks like the central banks did the
lifting that the ordinary markets
didn't want to do.


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Chris Powell
(10/26/2005; 21:36:21 MDT - Msg ID: 137278)
Bema, Arizona Star, Placer Dome settle Chilean mine dispute
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/3407Cerro Casale controversy ends.


To subscribe to GATA's dispatches, send an e-mail to:

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Sundeck
(10/26/2005; 21:39:23 MDT - Msg ID: 137279)
Greenspan = Copernicus, Columbus and Galileo, rolled into one!!
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,1061-1844850,00.html...or so one Anatole Kaletsky seems to think over at The Times...(see link). I wonder whether this goon has any inkling of how stupid such a comparison really is:

1. The word "revolution", used to describe all and sundry changes today, is derived from the new world system first convincingly enunciated by Copernicus wherin the Earth was understood to "revolve" around the Sun and not vice versa.

2. Galileo's numerous observations of mass and motion underpin advances in thinking of people such as Newton and Einstein and, probably more importantly, cemented (the importance of) dispassionate OBSERVATION onto the highway to Learning.

3. Columbus is credited with the "discovery" of the New World...or at least the particular "discovery" that set in train the great colonisation of the Americas by the European powers.

...and here we have sweet Anatole accrediting Greenspan with greater achievements than these three combined????

To read the linked artice, one would think that liberal monetary policy administered throughout a benign period in monetary history (wasn't it Volker, not Greenspan, who broke the back of the inflation dragon back in the early '80s?) was the font of all that has been achieved in the world in the last quarter century...

What about the "silicon revolution" (truly comparable with the Copernican original) that lead more than anything else to the ongoing vast increase in computational speed and information storage? This enabled three hundred years of dormant, intractable mathematical formalism to be numerically evaluated in near-real-time, and ushered in the era of "digital signal processing" that has impacted on virtually everything human, and enabled vast progress in everything from Alphabetic character recognition to the genetic origins of Zenophobia...including robust, broad-band, global communications that enables ME to transmit this to YOU, and which also enables Anatole's global fiat-based, financial system to work at all!

The tragedy is that much of this innovation took place in America at the same time as it has moved from a position of more-or-less financial order and control to one of near bankruptcy and monetary default...overseen by Greenspan the Great!

It is not that I dislike Dear Al, or even feel that he is in someway to be held to account... I just think that he is one of perhaps several hundred people who could have chaired the FED and done a comparable job...some better, some worse... Hardly deserving of the gush of psychophantic gibberish that appears in Mr Kaletsky's opinion-piece.

:-]


OvS
(10/26/2005; 22:00:59 MDT - Msg ID: 137280)
Medieval Latin Poetry.
For some of you, let me
explain what CoBra(too)
had said:
He quoted the second
half of a line that reads:
"Bella gerant alii,
tu felix Austria nube."
Let others wage war, you
happy Austria, marry, which
equals=Hausmachtpolitik.
Which brings to mind:

A lles
E rdreich
I st
O sterreich
U ntertan

The whole
World
Is
Subject to
Austria.

OvS

Chris Powell
(10/26/2005; 22:05:04 MDT - Msg ID: 137281)
London Telegraph acknowledges that central banks have an interest in suppressing metals prices
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/3408Latest GATA dispatch.


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LimitUp
(10/26/2005; 22:33:46 MDT - Msg ID: 137282)
spikedog
My take is it's a replay of the late 70's when the mindset was buy it now because tomorrow it will cost more. People realized inflation was eating them alive.
Goldendome
(10/26/2005; 22:56:04 MDT - Msg ID: 137283)
What? We worry?
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5ETNXWe doubt that parties holding $billions in the long bond are concerned. Nah -- this is just a blip up in interest rates. Recycling more of that gargantuan amount of trade dollars will bring rates right back down again into that trading range. ...Or, maybe not.

Are we seeing some leakage from bonds already into gold as oil and gas prices recede, possibly setting the stage for just nicely advancing inflation but not a deep recession?

Stagflation?
Bizarro-Greenspan
(10/27/2005; 03:02:41 MDT - Msg ID: 137284)
Pfft

There would be no physical silver backing the silver ETFs.

Just like there is no gold backing the gold ETF.

Moving pallets and switching tags'sorry,I'd rather watch David Copperfield make elephants disappear.

Barclays Bank is no friend of precious metals.

Just ANOTHER stunt from the Central Carnies.
specie-man
(10/27/2005; 03:37:10 MDT - Msg ID: 137285)
Inflation vs. Deflation - back to the currency drawing board
Many analysts have been debating whether there will be inflation or deflation in the next year or two.

But they are missing two other possibilities - that we will have both ("stagflation"), or neither.

With all the current world imbalances, it seems unlikely that there will be "neither". Bernanke's job is to make sure we have "neither". Short of reaching that goal, and with no viable options left, the Fed may just put on a straight face, declare the threat of 'flation has passed, and leave it at that.

I am in the stagflation camp (maybe even hyper-stagflation) for the simple reason that stagflation is what we are witnessing currently (and the current trend will probably continue) !

When the cost of your food, fuel, health care, and housing go up, but your prospects for a matching pay raise or better job are bleak - that is stagflation.

"Globalization", at the core, is all about equalization of standards of living. Ours (in the USA) go down, while others go up.

And of all possible paths towards a reduced standard of living, stagflation is perhaps the most direct.

The Powers That Be (the banks) want one thing above all else - they want people to go into debt and work hard their entire life to pay off that debt in full (and with compounded interest, of course). If people refuse to go into debt, or if they refuse to pay or are unable to pay off that debt, or if they pay it off early, then that is bad for banks. That is why an expanding economy with more people borrowing (and more jobs so that they will all be able to pay in full) is a "must have" for banks.

Any currency regime will attempt to maximize the banks' rake. So how might the rapidly-aging US Dollar standard evolve ? So far, the banks seem to have been willing to trade job weakness in the USA for strong job growth (and a whole lot of new customers) on the other side of the Pacific. Bringing the "American Dream" to Asia will be extremely lucrative !

But in their thirst for more customers world-wide, the banks have lent too much money for mortgages in the USA and elsewhere, while at the same time the banks' policies have resulted in weak wage growth in the "western" economies. There is a danger that mortgage holders could default en masse if things go sour in the USA job market. The banks will not sit idly by and let that happen. Recent moves to close the bankruptcy window and to increse credit card minimum payments are stop-gap measures to try and reduce (or prevent) loan defaults.

There are places in the world beyond the current sphere of "globalization". And much of the oil supply comes from those places (the Middle East, Russia, Venezuela, etc.). The growing financial clout of those factions will be a challenge to Western financial supremacy.

Ultimately, it is the nature of people and nations not to agree on things. China is the swing vote. For a while now they have been going along with western banks (buying US Treasury bonds, accumulating Dollar reserves, and loaning money for USA mortgages). At any time, if it suits them, they may abandon the Dollar standard and throw their lot in with the resource-rich (cash poor) nations. Recently, China has appeared to be reaching in that direction.

If that comes to pass, the Dollar standard will wither and globalization (from an American point of view) will abruptly reverse. Globalization is, right now, a bubble. The US Dollar reserve status is a bubble that mirrors the globalization bubble. And it is currently in bubble "blow-off" territory ! The trend will reverse towards "Localization". You watch, the future buzzword is going to be "Localization", which means that local economies will become more self-sufficient. That is really a much better (and inherently more efficient) arrangement anyway - especially in light of high energy and transportation costs.

With more localization, there will be a reduced need for international reserve currencies and a greater need for local reserve currencies that have regional appeal.

There will no longer be a monoploly on reserve status by any one currency.

In the late 1980's, from most outward appearances, the Soviet Union was strong. But it quickly crumbled from within and the impressive (but thin) exterior facade crashed down. The US Dollar reserve currency status is just as tenuous.

When the Dollar standard falters, don't be surprised if various capital controls are established. For example, right now if you took 100,000 pennies to the bank to make your monthly mortgage payment, they would most likely refuse to accept them, even though they are "legal tender". Imagine a situation where a torrent of dollars were let loose from their reserve moorings and flooded into the US, and banks refused to accept them. No cash, only digital credits, domestically earned via "slave" labor, would be accepted as payment for debts.
Bizarro-Greenspan
(10/27/2005; 03:37:17 MDT - Msg ID: 137286)
Randy,Euro as the new reserve currency

Completely independent of the huge rifts opening between the members of the euro club which comprises the current sideshow,the euro as the new reserve currency cannot happen.

Here is why,

(1.)All the countries must be brought together under the same constitution.This is now a dead issue for all intents and purposes.

(2.)Once that happens,the ECB central bank must assume the status of lender of last resort.No.2 cannot happen without No.1 occuring first.People are terrified of the Euro Behemoth running roughshod over their individual countries policies.Plus,the stifling layers of bureaucracy and regulation,as detailed so well here by ORO,further erodes their individual freedoms.The French will never approve the constitution now,look at their history.

(3.)The UK must join the Euro group,the financial center must be in London.Europe does not have the technical and financial sophistication to operate the world monetary system.This also appears to be a parrot that is quite dead,not just pining for the fjords.

(4.)In Wim's stability speech in September 2000,he insisted that the individual countries must reform their policies in order for the gambit to work.Next to nothing has been done in this regard,in fact,it appears to be getting worse.

(5.)By backing the US war promo for Iran,the Euros are signalling capitulation and are scurrying across the dock
to re-board the USS Global Economic Hegemony.



Bizarro-Greenspan
(10/27/2005; 04:08:56 MDT - Msg ID: 137287)
On ORO

I feel he is no longer with us,his last communications were at Another site in May of 2003.He said that he was involved in a serious car accident and was having difficulty posting.

ORO was a unique individual who devoted countless hours of posting here and elsewhere,but for what exactly?

Most gold prognosticators who devote that much time to write about the gold market have something to sell,just what was ORO selling?

Furthermore,he has an extensive presence in the Hall of Fame,to me,that says something about his influence here at USAGOLD.

Sometimes I think that you,Randy,treat his extensive efforts to present his unique point of view with derision and disrespect.I feel that is unfair and sullies his legacy here at USAGOLD.

The Euro 350 line in the sand,ORO was onto that long before anyone else was.When we broke above,many clamored to pat themselves on the back for pointing this suddenly important factor.

Whatever,I know where I read it first.

TownCrier
(10/27/2005; 04:21:25 MDT - Msg ID: 137288)
Bizarro-Greenspan,
We must each be following the news of completely different worlds, which might explain why you have the 'Bizarro' component in your name.

In my world, nobody who's been walking the 'Gold Trail' and reading the additional tea leaves with their eyes open expects that the euro is destined to be "the new reserve currency". A structure of MTM free-gold pricing upon yellow metal will fill the reserve void. At best, the euro will pick up the dollar's slack as a universal invoicing unit, and yes, likely carry some reserve weight as a mere consequence of that. But in time this invoicing could be done in any number of significant/stable currencies.

1) In my world, the European constitution has precious little to do with the viability and funtion of the euro.

2 & 3) In my world, there is no requirement that other countries adopt the euro or European bureaucracy as a pre-requisite to following the best management practices which mimic the above-stated reserve structure or to employ euro-denominated invoicing for purposes of international trade. Hence, the ECB need not concern itself with "operating the world monetary system" as you put it, nor of being anyone else's "lender of last resort".

4) In my world, the notion of European fiscal responsibility was always viewed as a favorable goal, but was never a pre-requisite end-all, be-all. Confer the above paragraph. Under a predominantly MTM gold reserve structure, each nation of the world remains fairly autonomous with regard to charting their own course of fiscal and monetary policy. Reserves will remain gold, but invoicing will tend to prefer the more reliably stable currencies among the sea of fiat alternatives.

5) Utter bunk. Or better still, make that �ber bunk.

R.
Sundeck
(10/27/2005; 04:35:26 MDT - Msg ID: 137289)
Common currency
1. @specie-man...I like the concept of "localisation" and, as you point out, rising fuel costs may force more and more goods/services to become localised. In fact, when you think of it, while-ever people and communities remain "local" (which will probably be forever) there will always be a "local sphere" surrounding them in which certain businesses will always have a competitive edge. Depending on how the present energy crisis unfolds, the number and type of busineses may wax and wane depending on the cost and mix of energy solutions. Food supply is the classic case. Why is Japan reluctant to do way with its rice paddys? Only a fool would trust in globalised JIT staple-food networks!!

2. Is it possible that the idea of a "common currency" is no longer relevant? When gold was used in this role to settle trade imballances between traders or between countries it was partly because of the lack of transparencey, time-delays and trust across different coutries' financial systems. The use of the US dollar supplanted this for a short while (50 years), but historical concerns about "transparency and trust" have only been reinforced by the experience. But of course, the time-delay problems have been done awway with. It seems to me that with the advent of instant communications, rapid and sophisticated information storage and transfer and recall, and the increased transparency of the economies of the world, that ASNY and ALL significant currencies can be accepted as settlement for imbalances and can act as "reserves". If one country attempts to rort the system by being profligate in its currency generation, this is fairly rapidly detected and its currency is adjusted in the FX markets accordingly. Such a world would see a rearrangement in hedging services provided by the financial industry away from the dollar-centric concept to a more multipolar regime. This world would partition into financial blocks of various sizes, each with their own "common currencies", but each currency exercising "reserve" status in its own right.

Just my two cents worth...

:-)
contrarian
(10/27/2005; 04:46:58 MDT - Msg ID: 137290)
Euro
The Euro is just a boutique currency, and when France bowed out of the EEU arrangement, the last nail was pounded into the Euro "alternative to the dollar" coffin.

I say, watch for confiscation of bullion just as in '33, unexpectedly, announced and implemented over a weekend, safety deposit boxes sealed, unable to access on Monday. In a desperate last ditch attempt to save and back the dollar (revaluing gold). Drastic yes, but impossible no.
Kev
(10/27/2005; 05:04:05 MDT - Msg ID: 137291)
Central Bank Belgium - battle continues...
BRUSSELS, Oct 27 (Reuters) - Belgium's central bank said on Thursday a Brussels commercial court had upheld its right to issue money in one of the country's highest profile cases. "The judge confirmed the bank never lost its emission rights," a bank spokeswoman said. "There is therefore no reason to distribute the reserve fund to shareholders." The bank's shares were suspended in Brussels after falling 9.99 percent to 3,200 euros following the ruling. Minority shareholders had brought the bank to court to try to get it to share its reserves by arguing that it had lost its right to print money to the European Central Bank. (c) Reuters 2005.
Topaz
(10/27/2005; 05:29:29 MDT - Msg ID: 137292)
@ Bizarro.

It saddens me immensely to read your report on ORO. We can but hope his condition at the time of the accident improved and that he's now simply sitting back somewhere watching ...and number-crunching for his own benefit.

Kev
(10/27/2005; 05:53:38 MDT - Msg ID: 137293)
Central Bank Belgium - battle continues... (2)
so the Belgian CB can decide to start printing euros whenever it wants to do so (without permission of the ECB)? Or are they going to cancel the Euro and start issuing notes in Belgian Frank again? that's absurd.

this is a missed chance to buy out the minority shareholders. if they had to distribute part of the reserves, the Belgian State would get 50% of it + tax on the distribution which would be enough to delist the whole thing and get it over with.

in all the fuzz Belgian private shareholders get scared away (they shouldn't... the uncontested part of the intrinsic value is 6000+ EUR and we are now at 3200 EUR). rumour has it that most of the Belgian banks are selling (or have sold) most of their shares too because they don't want to be involved in this hornet's nest (CB Belgium is - de facto - the controlling authority on all quoted companies... you don't want to mess with your watch dog). Fortis used to give their voting rights at the Annual Meeting to the governor, they stopped doing that this year under pressure of minority shareholders. sources say institutional investors in Germany, UK & The Netherlands are buying. I doubt they would be impressed with some of the tactics the Belgian CB & State use to win this battle.

Judge upholds Belgian c.bank right to print money

BRUSSELS, Oct 27 (Reuters) - Belgium's central bank said on Thursday a Brussels commercial court had upheld its right to issue money, in one of the country's highest-profile cases. "The judge confirmed the bank never lost its emission rights," a bank spokeswoman said. "There is therefore no reason to distribute the reserve fund to shareholders." Shares in Banque Nationale de Belgique have more than doubled since 2000 amid speculation the bank would buy out minority shareholders or be forced by the courts to share its assets with them on the argument it no longer had the write to issue currency following the introduction of the euro. The bank's shares were suspended on Thursday at the request of Belgian regulator CBFA after falling 9.99 percent to 3,200 euros -- their lowest level since December 2004 -- following the ruling. They are set to resume trade shortly after the release of a statement by the bank, a spokesman for the CBFA said. The central bank is one of the few in Europe to be publicly listed and is about 50-50 percent owned by the state and minority shareholders. Minority shareholders had brought the bank to court to try to get it to share its reserves. Belgium's Supreme Court two years ago threw out their argument that the bank had to distribute its assets among all its shareholders because it had lost the right to print money to the European Central Bank. (c) Reuters 2005.
Kev
(10/27/2005; 06:14:21 MDT - Msg ID: 137294)
Central Bank Belgium - battle continues... (3)
FYI:

website of a group of minority shareholders:
http://www.nbb4ever.be
"The national bank of Belgium, a story of private capital"
not much English information (yet).

minority shareholders's defense in court goes through Deminor: http://www.deminor.be/
for English information go to: http://www.deminor.be/articles.do?id=332
top lawyer Modrikamen is involved in this case too.

next in court will be a contested transfer of 235million EUR to the Belgian State. there are also procedures concerning previous transfers of surplus value of the Bank's gold sales to the Belgian State.
Bizarro-Greenspan
(10/27/2005; 08:50:52 MDT - Msg ID: 137295)
Randy,my sources on the obstacles to the Euro as new reserve currency

Two renowned US economics professors and Peter Warburton("Debt and Delusion",a great book,it cost me 80 donut holes,it was worth every metal clad penny).

As for No.5,well,now,you're adopting my attitude on the euro closure,now aren't you?

This isn't a garden party anymore,my friend.The gloves are really off now.
Bizarro-Greenspan
(10/27/2005; 09:04:01 MDT - Msg ID: 137296)
Topaz

It doesn't look good,there has not been a peep from him since May of 2003.

ORO's Vault has been scrubbed,probably because noone was reading it,except for me.

I hope one day to honour ORO in a special way,it's a dream I have.

There's lots of other writers I respect immensely,Reg Howe,Sean Corrigan,John Hathaway and James Turk come to mind quickly.Then there are the fine independent minds on the various gold forums out there.

Oh,yes,a special mention to "Gold and Economic Freedom"'stirring stuff.

I've been reading basically non-stop on this issue since May of 1998.I try to cover all opinions to maintain balance in this immense house of mirrors that some dare call the "free market".

I'm getting very tired now.
Goldilox
(10/27/2005; 09:25:38 MDT - Msg ID: 137297)
NO $ accepted
@ Specie-man,

Your quote:

"Imagine a situation where a torrent of dollars were let loose from their reserve moorings and flooded into the US, and banks refused to accept them. No cash, only digital credits, domestically earned via "slave" labor, would be accepted as payment for debts."

I think you have something there. I imagine it will be labeled "fighting" terrorism, or counterfeiting, or tax evasion - any number of scapegoated enemies except the actual the US$ gluttony itself.

Although the majority of US $ only exist as digital credits, this is one way to scrub a pfew percent at some point - especially foreign "uncontrolled" paper dollars. Unlike silver certs and the previous generations of paper, these will become bonfires rather than collecter's items, representing their true backing.


It should all be implemented once the RFID chips are ready for implant, or should I say once the sheeple are ready for their collars.

'Tis written . . .
Goldilox
(10/27/2005; 09:31:08 MDT - Msg ID: 137298)
As Goes GM
http://urbansurvival.com/week.htmsnip:

There and old saying that "As goes GM, so goes the world..." Today, the world may be in trouble because GM has come to the attention of the SEC on accounting practices and they want to ask a few questions. I suppose - and it's only a supposition on my part - that some of the specifics would include the freezing of Delphi benefits and chopping health benefits.

The subject of pension obligations is multiplying like rabbits on Viagra in our news watching. No doubt, the SEC is trying to walk a line here. On the one hand, we have a country which is in serious economic doo-doo and the only way some companies will be able to stay alive is by gutting their pension commitments to the bone, or worse, completely disavowing them. But wait! The sheeple aren't going to put up with that because hundreds of thousands are being screwed out of their retirement earnings. (This is only the start, by the way.) As a result, the SEC is looking into cases like GM's.

Now, off in the background, we see that CONgress is trying to paper over the mess - no surprise there, but rather than a responsible managed commitment to meet pension commitments, CONgress is just looking at upping pension insurance fees! Like that's going to change the business model!

-Goldilox

Double bubble, toil in trouble!
Goldilox
(10/27/2005; 10:07:34 MDT - Msg ID: 137299)
Harriet Miers, We Hardly Knew Ye
http://www.villagevoice.com/news/0544,ridgeway,69492,6.htmlsnip:

Battered Bush accepts withdrawal of flagging Supreme Court nominee
by James Ridgeway
October 27th, 2005 9:59 AM

Editor's note: On Thursday morning, Harriet Miers, President Bush's nominee to replace Justice Sandra Day O'Connor on the U.S. Supreme Court, bowed to what had appeared an inevitable defeat. Bush announced that he had accepted the withdrawal of Miers, his chief White House counsel.
According to CNN, Miers told the president it was in the nation's best interest for her to exit the confirmation process. Bush told reporters:

"It is clear that senators would not be satisfied until they gained access to internal documents concerning advice provided during her tenure at the White House�disclosures that would undermine a president's ability to receive candid counsel."

It's important to note that Bush had been unable to sell his conservative base on either her competence for the job or her conservative credentials. With the nation waiting for indictments in the Plame Affair, the administration had tried to mount a defense of Miers�to no avail.

-Goldilox

Conflict of interest wins out. How could the Senate possibly confirm without public outcry? Adding the main protagonist in blocking Justice's White House indictments to the bench is a tad bit TOO transparent to fly.
The Hoople
(10/27/2005; 10:37:41 MDT - Msg ID: 137300)
Goldilox
Delphi has proposed wage cuts from $27.50 hr. to $9.50 hr. in addition to essentially jettisoning the pension/health plans. Wonder how many of those Delphi workers mortgages can survive that whopper cut? That will be a blueprint for GM, Ford and others to follow. Add to that the millions of people hitting the AMT threshold next year, higher heating costs, gas, property tax, and sundry inflation items and 2006 is shaping up to get ugly fast. CONgress can authorize all the FRN's they want to dump into various insurance plans but it might be like the proverbial fighting wildfire with a garden hose. I doubt also a $9.50 guy will buy any of those GM Cadillac Escalades. The downward spiral has begun. Maybe if those pension plans had included some gold instead of the worthless stocks they loaded up on they might be in a little better shape.
Humble Pie
(10/27/2005; 10:40:20 MDT - Msg ID: 137301)
#137296
Ad Nauseum ,good night.
Gandalf the White
(10/27/2005; 10:45:31 MDT - Msg ID: 137302)
HELP !! I have lost my LINK to the daily US$ chart !
http://charts-d.quote.com:443/1002980432830?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=DX00Y∬erval=10&Ht=600&Wd=800&Display=2&Study=MA&Param1=13&Param2=0&Param3=&FontSize=10I have just returned from a LONG ADVENTURE, and --
All I can see now is this NY action multiday chart !
AND therefore I can not see the WATERFALL action !!
Can someone help me with the REAL LINK ?
Tks <;-)
GW
Bizarro-Greenspan
(10/27/2005; 10:46:45 MDT - Msg ID: 137303)
(No Subject)

ORO (09/27/00; 20:19:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 37697)
Goldhunter and R Powell - investing in bad paper
The outlook is one of stagflation worse by far than the 70s. The cause for monetary inflation of the order I expect is bad debt. The bad debt is a result of the process of credit quality deterioration characteristic of loose credit conditions, which are themselves the result of having no substantial solvency risk for the major banking houses, which,in turn, is the result of the moral hazard created by the presence of a lender of last resort.
contrarian
(10/27/2005; 11:07:05 MDT - Msg ID: 137304)
Miers
What a disaster and humiliation for Bush! As if his 39% approval rating wasn't bad enough, now he even loses his credibility among his base! And serious indictments coming down the pike, I think, watch, perhaps for desperate measures.

Not to mention "Brownie" who's "doing a great job in New Orleans" and then kaput and kicked to the curb! What a mess! Chaos! I fear for the future!

Seems like the Miers thing was reminiscent of FDR's packing of the court in the 30's. I can only imagine it's bad for the dollar and good for gold.
Belgian
(10/27/2005; 11:10:47 MDT - Msg ID: 137305)
The currency drawing board :
If nothing dramatic happens to the dollar currency and its derivative currencies, the global unbalances will continue to aggravate and lead to serious (catastrophic) economical break downs.

I don't see the global unbalances being sanitized without currency changes and/or change in goldreserve function.

Each economic block will continue to defend its specific advantages over the other(s). I see less and less global cooperation (goodwill) amongst the different blocks around the global $ currency. I don't see a deliberate dramatic dollar exchange rate crash restore the global balance.

EMU doesn't want to lead because its strategy is build upon the detoriation of the $-IMS under its growing debtbergs.
The US-$ can't lead because of the existance of the EMU alternative. Asia continues quietly and watches who (�-$) will do what.

When nobody takes the lead...the utility/the need of a "-global-" currency (an IMS) will be questioned. Then gold must come upon the drawing board, with or without an invitation. But how will a planet in full globalization react to a detoriating credibility of the world's currency, loaded with a reserve status ? All currencies can start freely floating...but float against what ?

Can a redrawing of the present IMS be succesfull without taking gold (ownership + valuation) into consideration ?
If EMU is judged not sophisticated enough (Bizarro-humhum)...to what kind of debt-dollar shall the planet refer its currencies to ?

Or shall we have gold, progressively "revaluating" and currencies' managements working to become more or less associated with gold to become gold's universal numeraire !?

If nobody's currency wishes to support/cooperate the old monetary $ order (IMS)...the $-IMS and the global unbalances will keep on detoriating, together with the International Financial Order. This is simply "laisser aller" (let go). That is exactly what EMU is designed for. That's why EMU invited gold on the drawing board...its drawing board.

Free floating currencies will harden/soften vis a vis freegold as universal standard. This never was in the $ drawing board ...but is now in the euro drawing board.

The globe can and will remain on the dollar-standard and will deliberately go down with it...up until it is realized that gold is taking over ! This drawing is on the board, now.
TownCrier
(10/27/2005; 12:35:13 MDT - Msg ID: 137306)
Another successful Buyers' Group -- another one day sellout
http://www.usagold.com/gold/special/tens.htmlJonathan imforms me that the cache of assorted French Tens has been completely sold out. Congrats to all those who jumped on this offer during the past 24 hours. These coins will make a nice addition to fill up the corners in your portfolio.

If you missed out on this offer, call 1-800-869-5115 to initiate a conversation on gold with one of USAGOLD-Ce