Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

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(Tue Jun 03 1997 00:00)
Prospector: Thanks .. I was wondering if they had any similiarity with the U.S. Reform movement ( which I think is structurally falling apart ) and focusing of issues like the national debt and reforming entitlements to keep them for growing totally out of control ( it may be too late though anyway )

(Tue Jun 03 1997 00:01)
EWP: At least I can spell yer name right!

(Tue Jun 03 1997 00:02)
@New England
As Y Gaigor Cabinet level officer of Yeltsin's reform movement has indicated we need a "social" market economy. These are concepts we NEED to look at soon!! The Russians have been through upheaval and thus recognize the rule of law as important to maintaining Democratic order. The US must maintain its Entitlement promises or history shows there will be problems!!

(Tue Jun 03 1997 00:03)
Ted: The rest of the NBA and fans have my sympathy, and nothing lasts forever. Please, however, indulge those who live in close proximity to the moments of glory of the Bulls. What the Bulls have accomplished is not typical of Chicago sports teams. No comment is necessary re the Cubs, except that they have served well as the farm team for Cy Young winners for the rest of the league. I don't think there will ever be another good Bears team for as long as Mike McCaskey is in charge. Wherever you are George Halas, I hope you do not have to witness what your wimp Grandson has wrought. Go Bulls!!

(Tue Jun 03 1997 00:05)
ted: thanks for response. I guess that is what the reform in U.S. was promoting ( or should have promoted heavily ) . That Billionare guy destroyed the party in 1996 because he is not a team player.

(Tue Jun 03 1997 00:09)
Entitlement programs will be the downfall of the U.S., Canada, Europe, and Japan in a few decades. Unless any of them has the courage to fix them. It's demographics pal. Entitlements based on defined benefits ( versus defined contribution ) are doomed to failure ( they end up as political vehicles that get out of control ... and crash ... pyramid schemes cannot last forever ) .

(Tue Jun 03 1997 00:12)
Toronto 300

Notice that over the past few weeks a good number of
times that the Toronto 300 ( sometimes smartly ) ended up
on DOW down days. Do you think that anything can be read
into this?

(Tue Jun 03 1997 00:13)
Reb:You sound like a true sports fan and that I like Bulls have won their share and ain't ya gettin a wee bit greedy my friend...Do you really want the Mailman and Johnny Stockton to go out with no championship ring on their pinkies????...Course if it was my team ( the KNICKS...and don't say nothin ) I'd feel the same way you do!...MGraves: Alexa is here now....seeing the captain...

(Tue Jun 03 1997 00:18)
Weird night in Hong Kong as Hang Seng was up over 200 and is now down over 150....Could this be the end of the stock market mania in Hong Kong?
If so ....could some of that dough end up in Gold....YES!

(Tue Jun 03 1997 00:20)
Central Canada
EWP: I don't think that Canada has any entitlement programs as you defined the term. Maybe I'm wrong. What did you have in mind?

(Tue Jun 03 1997 00:21)
@New England
EWP: I propose a solution to the Entitlement problem and you shoot it down on the old future generations burdens. OK I want very high taxes and regulations on industry to offset the enviromental problems caused by pollution. Further there should be an agency to continue observation and impose fines on all industry with respect to any possibility they may harm future generations. A commission should be appointed to determine the harm and make the appropriations to the injured. Lets protect future generations now !!

In the same spirit lets limit SS and Medicare for the people who paid for it so we can save future generations!!!! Afterall whats the 15% of your income you have been charged over the last 20 years , if you are 40, hey your selfish to depend on anything for the SS and MEDI you paid for.

(Tue Jun 03 1997 00:22)
@the market
EWP -- TOO late. Yupper! As with any debt based system, where the only money in circulation has been loaned into existence, collapse is built in. It always requires people to continually borrow, just to have currency in the system. And to borrow at ever increasing speed to avoid 'liquidity' problems in the system. However, people only have so much borrowing capacity so, over time, the banking system has to continually lower the credit-worthiness of the borrower to perpetuate the scam and liquidity. Eventually, the point comes when bancruptcies grow in numbers and enormity. The last phase is when the government tries to take up the slack with even more printing and spending. But the hand-writing is, and always has been, on the wall. There is no way to build the tower-of-babel higher, or even to keep it from crumbling. What will make this worse is that this currency is also the 'reserve' currency for so many other countries and we are one of the worlds biggest marketplaces! It won't be an isolated event.

(Tue Jun 03 1997 00:24)
get real
Prospedtor: I don't know what numbers you are using but am very much interested in knowing how you figure that the west who voted Reform supports Ontario and the rest of Canda. Last I looked the population out west coul be fitted in Southern Ontario and the industries producing the countries wealth came from Ontario and Quebec.

(Tue Jun 03 1997 00:28)
selby: I questioned the stability of the CPP and health care systems ( some people refer to them as "entitlements" ) .

(Tue Jun 03 1997 00:33)
WW: What solutions have you been talking about?
1 ) Raising tax rates ( that will be passed to future generations ... the monster gets bigger ) ?
2 ) Means testing ( which is only a cheap bandage {not that much $$$ saved .. and people will find ways to qualify ... hiding assets, etc.} and does n't do squat to address actuarial problems of the system ) .

I guess if you thirty or forty and want your "entitlement" ... you want somebody else to pay for it ( which is somebody younger and unable to defend themselves against taxation without representation ) .

(Tue Jun 03 1997 00:42)
Junior+Prospector: Lets get ready to rumble!...12 round championship fight with the three knockdown rule in effect....Ding...

(Tue Jun 03 1997 00:43)
French Elections
There should be at least one socialist country around -- as an example.

(Tue Jun 03 1997 00:46)
Hang Seng down 159 and tonight's graph on spot Gold is headin UP...

(Tue Jun 03 1997 00:48)
@... Right. Reform Leadership.
Savage: You are right. I wasn't charitable to Ranji. Anyone who posts a 1300+ word article that had factual errors ( knowingly or unknowingly ) is not generous either.

Reformers: Get rid of Manning and some blockhead party rules and Reform will attract the quality of People it needs in Ontario to become a national governing party.

Referendums are a waste of time and costly method to run a government. If referendums were an active method of governance Canadians would be
involved with an endless election campaigns and politics that would be divisive and strain our precarious federation.

Political issues are sufficiently complex to warrant a six week campaign every four years - and that is enough to stress out most Canadians as is.

To permit the electorate to fire the government between elections is stupid and idealistic. The fact is that most ridings elect people with less than 50% of the vote. To permit the majority of "losers" to have the right to impeach the incumbent who won the seat on a minority split vote is cruel and unusual punishment. Who would want to run for public office with this stupid overhang ? Right, the idle rich or poor and a few crack pot idealogues.

I was a Reform party member before most people west of the manitoba border new they existed - late 1980's.

Seven years ago I ran in Ontario as a candidate for the Oakville Milton Reform Party nomination and was told that I should withdraw because I am an antiabortionist ( no spams please - I'm just giving you the facts ) .

The question raised by the Reform Party election committee was that if the electorate in Oakville-Milton asked me to vote for abortion would I do so. I said no. My reason ? I told the committee that I would disclose that I was an anti-abortionist, if asked, and that should suffice. The electorate could decide in the ballot box if I was their man. Period.

The committee was quickly turned-off and recommended that I withdraw. Guess who eventually ran and won the candidacy for Oakville-Milton riding and lost the federal election ? A guy who was a Vietnam Veteran ( Canadian volunteer ) who operated a small construction firm ( I think ) in rural Milton who always made a point that he was a Vietnam Vet during his public speaking "attempts".

From my brief experience - about 7 yrs. ago - speaking as a candidate for the Reform nomination in Oakville-Milton the Reform party has a long way to go to build a successful team of candidates in Ontario before they may form a government.

The first order of business would be for Manning to inform the party that he will resign within the year and open the way for a national leadership conference. Leadership candiadtes should have sufficient time to consider and plan their candidacy and the balance of three years of Official Opposition experience to ready the party for the next battle in 2001.


(Tue Jun 03 1997 00:58) are both right
Prospector/Junior: Central Canada helped develop the west and the west help the east during the oil crisis - even though a few idiots wanted us easterners to freeze in the dark. Remember the car bumper stickers ?

We are all intereste din a strong and properous Canada. What Canada lacks if decisive leadership in Ottawa. The Separatist issue should be ended as Selby and I have discussed earlier- let the separatisit minority form surrender their canadian citizenship and prvileges and form their own govt. Quebec would host two govts - a provincial federalist ( Montreal ) govt and a national govt in Quebec City - share the land - no border police - pay taxes to respective govts - share provincial/fed public debt - and most of all - peaceful coexistance for mutual economic harmony. End of story. ...End of Liberal domination of Federal govt.

Cheers and goodnight

(Tue Jun 03 1997 01:00)
Good Night TOO Tarnished!

(Tue Jun 03 1997 01:07)
Heartland of Transfer PayOuts
EWP: My understanding of entitlements is that you get them whether you pay in to them or not. I always think of US foodstamps as the prototype. The CPP is paid into by all employees on a % schedule based on earned income. When you get the CPP payuments when you are 60 or older the amount you get is dependent on how much you put in and for how long you paid in. If you don't work you can't pay in and you can't take out. Lots more details of course but I don't see an entitlement here--just a national pension plan for the employed. More going out than in and hence the actuarial panic.

(Tue Jun 03 1997 01:09)
Goodnight Selby..................

(Tue Jun 03 1997 01:12)
Ted: Nite. gotta get enuf sleep to take in the game.

(Tue Jun 03 1997 01:45)
Fidelity Select American Gold Chart, hourly prices in percent,
seven hours ( prices ) per day, for ten days.

(Tue Jun 03 1997 01:54)
WW: A repost from late last nite.

Date: Mon Jun 02 1997 01:29
Earl ( ) :
WW: Forgive me for taking a jaded or cynical view here but I must ask the question. Does your law practice
depend, in some material fashion, on work derived from SS or other government programs? A lawyer who
expresses such concern for the downtrodden must have some well connected financial fish to be fried. These
unrelenting expressions of outrage over the actions of democratic congressional majorities, raiding trust funds
for decades, must be more than a pro bono expression. BTW, The repubs would be equally culpable except
they are too stupid to tie their own shoe laces. My goodness. Either, sue, settle or find a new client.

(Tue Jun 03 1997 01:58)

S. Africa miners didn't go to work Sunday night according to this article.
I can't find anymore information on it though. The markets didn't react
to the news today.

Palladium - Spent alot of the night digging for news. It seems the Russian
Almaz group is in Japan talking about resuming PA/PL shipments. They
arrived there this past weekend. The spin doctors have assigned credit
to the rumor that the Russian CB was going to dump PA from its stockpiles.
I find it hard to believe also - but that's the best report I can find.
I personnally like my idea better ( PA shorters drove the other white metals
down and let the arbs drive down PA ) .

I did find a report where Merril Lynch delieved some PL today to NYMEX.
From the what's it worth field - one HK trader thought the PA range
would be $165-$190 until shipments started from Russia.

THis week should be big - the news will come out of Japan one of these
nights and the market will open one way or the other. Has anyone read
anything on these Almaz/Japan talks? Which day are they scheduled to
end? If D.A.'s theory of the Tiger fund bidding on the stockpiles has
merit then I would expect these Japanese talks will not end with a
signed deal. That should shake the market up alittle. I would think
the $190 area might be possible again this week. It's time to place
your bets I think.

(Tue Jun 03 1997 02:13)
Here is more on the S. African strike:

Didn't these miners strike last July for 3+ weeks? Maybe this year
it will happen again. Is there something special about July in S.
Africa? Weather, vacations, something that would lead these people
to want a couple of weeks of vacation?

(Tue Jun 03 1997 03:34)
@Pacific Coast
Last I looked the population out west ( western Canada ) coul be fitted in Southern Ontario and the industries producing the countries wealth came from Ontario and Quebec.
Junior - this is the kind of comment the Soviet occupiers of Poland or Czechoslovokia would make.

Junior ,
- military contracts exclusively go to Ont/Que axis curious but essentially do to pork barrelling. Done no doubt to prop up the Ontario industries at the expensive of opportunities elsewhere. Canada is one of those socialistic countries that props up its main revenue generating industries with subsidies. ( Unemployment insurance grants to GM to support a temporary labour pool. )
- National energy program - does not need explaining except that it was a highly undemocratic tactic but forced upon one region, without too much debate, by another.
- Of the 10 Canadian provinces and 2 territories - BC Alberta and Ont. pay in more than is taken out in country wide equalization transfer payments. The Financial post reported ~1 1/2 ago that the total sum of transfers out of Alberta equal ( $25 billion ) the exact same amount sucked out of confederation by Quebec between 1975-95. This is what makes this Canadian Confederation such a REALLY GOOD THING. And a lot seems to go to those areas of the country with the most government members.
- Federal Government jobs in BC and Alberta have a very high ( disproportionate ) number of tax-supported employees from La Belle Province ( Que ) . Entering Jasper Nat. Park I get interrogated by individuals who speak poorer English than the prime minister.
- Westerners being forced to buy expensive ( tariff ) protected goods from Quebec & Ontario instead of imports ( buy buy buy Canadian!!! )
Auto industry a classic example of this. Canadian confederation is based upon anti-Americanism which is why Ontario bought into confederation and why tariffs have played such a big part in propping up regional plants in Ontario from foreign multinationals.
As a colony of Ontario the concept of the western provinces was imperialistic in the we supply the cheap resources and get sold back to us the finished goods by Ontario.
- Ontario/Quebec stacked senate - if the US had our structured senate them Boeing in Everett, Wash would near be where it is. The CF-18 maintenance contract going to Quebec and not to the lower bid aircraft company in Winnipeg about 10 years ago is classic. Some how these central Canadians think no one will notice these little stunts. It seems this election a lot have out hear ( in Manitoba at least ) .
- Milk marketing board - BC has 12% of population but can only ( by law ) produce 4.5% of the total quotas for the country. The balance we can not produce we have to purchase from central Canada. ( i.e. the Quebec milk monopoly )

I really would like to know Junior the exact cost but how to you value lost oppourtunity and the value of industry propt up by tarriffs?

Pepino di Cortino
(Tue Jun 03 1997 03:40)

You Guysa: Today, how you say I learna a bigga bunch.
Firsta you hava alla thosa nicea things that maka you pay
the taxa, so they hava the money that you hopa dey giva
you back.
Denna doza guys they makathe jobs to paya themselves
your money and becoma richa guys. Ima tella the Pope.
Denna your bambino's they worka for doza guys to paya da
tax, so you can getta your money back. MAMA MIA
THANKA GOD FOR, "LA BELLA ITALIA', where we no paya our
tax and maka the wine. Sure we chasa, how you say, da
girls, they lika it too; and we alla so happy.
Sure when you growa the grapes that maka the vino on the
side of the hill, one lega getsa longer dan the other,
but wenn you worka in the other direction, itsa help
My Uncle who go to America, say the Dottore, he charga
him bigga money to fixa his leg and the nice Dottore,
hesa compensated himselfa real good.

"LA BELLA ITALIA, LA BELLA ITALIA, I lova you, the besta
pease on the world.

Ciao Guysa, I'm always learna.

H. Bunker
(Tue Jun 03 1997 03:47)
@HiYo Silver

Pepino: Howdy, pard. How do explaina them I-talian

John Disney
(Tue Jun 03 1997 04:15)
For Kuston
RSA strike was a COSATU strike. It was intended
as a show of strength by cosatu against the Government.
Cosatu is national union and very political. Strike
not aimed at mines. If NUM ( mining union ) missed a shift
it was in sympathy with Cosatu strike ( which aimed at
all employment nation wide ) . July good time for strikes.
Its cold here so strikers dont demonstrate much. It
would be hell if weather was warmer. When I get morning
Business Day Ill add more if useful info forthcoming. For
time being I would not be too worried.
For EWP.
You say silly things to weennie wacker. Of course he
cannot comprehend mathmatical concepts you fool. He is
a lawyer. He only understands lots of words and over
blown pompous emotional self serving statements. Save
your strength. I humbly suggest you get get on with
your life and pay as little attention as possible to
the wacker. I think I will report him to the EPA for
word pollution of what was once a fine site.

Pepino di Cortino
(Tue Jun 03 1997 04:25)

H.Bunker: Hopa you maka the bigga money, I lika the
silver too.

I'm no buya the Italia's bonds, I lova my Italia and no
lika the Lire becausa she maka too many little baby lira
to keepa her price up, howa you calla the ( the interest ) .
The Lira may go downa in price. I lika the gold mines who
maka the stuff.
I giva the taxa guy a casa of wine, that maka him happy,
then we chasa the le signorene and they maka him real
happy. So now you know, we alla paisans, here in "LA

Bernatz de Ventadorm
(Tue Jun 03 1997 05:09)
For Monsiour di Cortino
Ah lovva zee way you speeka zee Engleesh.

H Bunker
(Tue Jun 03 1997 05:12)
Hiyo Silver

Thank ya, Pepino, ya maka, er, you make sense, pard.
I know whatcha mean about them revenuers. Only my
little woman Helen knows where my silver is. The
IRS asked me where it was and I told them to go to
Helen Hunt for it! Heh Heh, that's a knee slapper,
ain't it?

(Tue Jun 03 1997 05:51)
South Yuba yours of Monday 20:27. It was the South Yuba near Bridgeport. I am new to area, I know where Sierra City is but not sure of slate creek??? Looking forward to walking the North Yuba too, hope it is as beautiful as the South, any suggestions? I hope you were more successful at panning than I have been.

Why would you move from this area to Florida if you do not mind my asking?

(Tue Jun 03 1997 07:04)
The gold price sneaks up .90 while everyone is sleeping in. SHHH! Don't wake the baby!

(Tue Jun 03 1997 07:10)
Joke of the morn
Gold and silver both up this morning. Looks somewhat promising. You can't keep a good corpse down. Now for my post of the morning:

The Pope had just finished a tour of the East Coast and was
taking a limousine to the airport. Having never driven a limo,
he asked the chauffeur if he could drive for awhile.

Well, the chauffeur didn't have much of a choice, so the chauffeur
climbs in the back of the limo and the Pope takes the wheel.
The Pope proceeds to hop on Route 95 and starts accelerating to see
what the limo could do. Well he gets to about 90 miles per hour
and, Oh No!, there are the red lights of the State Police
in his rear view mirror.

He pulls over and the trooper comes to his window. Well the trooper,
seeing who it was, says "just a moment please I need to call in."

The trooper radio's in and asks for the chief. He tells the chief
"I've got a Really important person pulled over and I need to know
what to do."

The chief replys "Who is it, not the major again?" The trooper says,"

"No, even more important." The chief replys, "It's the Governor, is it ?"

The trooper replys "No, even more important."

"It isn't Clinton is it after another tryst and a night of hard drinking on the town?"

"No, more important", replies the trooper.

"Well who the heck is it!", screams the chief.

"I don't know" says the trooper. "But he's got the Pope as a chauffeur!"

(Tue Jun 03 1997 07:16)
Bonus Joke
Since I have to unload my unleaded options this month, I would be very greatful if you folks would quit spending so much time on this line and get out and drive a little. All I need is 2 cents a gallon. Since my first joke of the morning was a religious joke of sorts I follow it up with more.

A New York tailor, devout Jew all his days, tries very hard to bring up his children in the faith. One day, his youngest son comes to him and announces that he is becoming a Christian. The tailor ponders his misfortunes, trying to understand why such a thing should happen to him.

In desolation, he seeks out his rabbi and confides in him. "Rabbi," laments the tailor, "I do not understand. I have a son, a good Jewish boy, brought up in the faith. We observed, we attended, we did everything for the boy, and yet he decides to become a Christian. How can this thing be?" "My friend," says the rabbi, "you WOULDN'T believe, but I must tell you. I, too, have a son, a good Jewish boy, brought up here in the synagogue in the faith. Yet, he also became a Christian. Who is to know? The Almighty has his reasons. All we can do is pray to Him for answers."
With that, the two of them set forth in devout prayer. Suddenly, the lights dim, the walls shake, and God's voice fills the room. "Let me tell you two, you WOULDN'T believe, but I had a son, a good Jewish boy..."

(Tue Jun 03 1997 07:20)
Weird night last night aside from Canadian politics...In Hong Kong where there has been a stock market mania going on the Hang Seng started the night shooting straight up to over +250 but then turned south big time and ended DOWN 230.73 ( = to about a 130 point loss on thew Dow ) the Hang Seng began to turn around...GOLD+SILVER PLUS USD began to turn around also...EBN Gold now up .85 and SILVER up 5 cents...The HK economy and markets are closely linked to the U.S.Dollar ( USD ) and could this be a "sea change"....The people of Hong Kong have historically been big fans of GOLD....Has the bubble been pricked or is this just a one night turn-around????....

(Tue Jun 03 1997 07:27)
Tort:WE ARE UP!...Good mornin joke...not good...GREAT!...haven'tweaved me way to bonus joke yet but Iez gettin there...EBN Gold up .85!

(Tue Jun 03 1997 07:29)
Jin: What do you think about Tuesdays market action for the Hang Seng???

George s. Cole
(Tue Jun 03 1997 07:41)
go for grwoth
WW; I suspect we are witnessing a sea change in the global political tide. The move to the political right seems to be cresting. This supports Stephen Leeb's aregument that governments will be forced to "go for growth" in the years ahead and "inflation be damned". Gold will do very well under this scenario as will other investments that tend do well in periods of strong growth and rising inflation -- real estate, small cap stocks, etc. I suspect the big cap stock averages will make 1997 highs that will not be exceeded until well after the year 2000.

George s. Cole
(Tue Jun 03 1997 07:44)
go for grwoth
WW; I suspect we are witnessing a sea change in the global political tide. The move to the political right seems to be cresting. This supports Stephen Leeb's aregument that governments will be forced to "go for growth" in the years ahead and "inflation be damned". Gold will do very nicely under this scenario as will other investments that tend do well in periods of strong growth and rising inflation -- real estate, small cap stocks, etc.

(Tue Jun 03 1997 07:56)
Savage - I saw your reply. Thanks, your strategy is a little clearer to me now. When we where talking about the XAU and you mentioned futures on it, it threw me at first since there's no future contract on the XAU index. I'm still learning the best way to deal with these option trades.

(Tue Jun 03 1997 08:04)
@ Wondering!!!
Whatever happened to Searle??? His postings to Kitco were always an inspiration and treat to read.

(Tue Jun 03 1997 08:08)
Once again we ( Nova Scotia ) bucked a national trend and shot ourselves in the foot...somethin we are famous fer!.....Two thirds of yocal Liberals where turned out of office but at least they threw out Davy DINGWALL....The NDP will lead us to the promised land..hahahaha..

Timothy McVeigh
(Tue Jun 03 1997 08:11)
@AU 99.9
AU 99.9: He's DEAD!

(Tue Jun 03 1997 08:20)
Just got an e-mail from neighbor Eddie going boonkers over his beloved NDP...excuse me while I blow me lunch all over the keyboard...gush..splat....Maybe he ain't welcome to come over ta watch his beloved Red Army team....It's great living among!

(Tue Jun 03 1997 08:31)
EBN Gold up .70 and Siver up 3 cents...The Dollar is generally down and is sharply down against the YEN after last night a official called for a 103 dollar....Ediot: I don't like the NDP or the Detroit Red Army hockey team!

(Tue Jun 03 1997 08:33)
In Cape Breton ( aside from bein IDIOTS ) we call Silver....Siver!

(Tue Jun 03 1997 08:34)
@ home in FL.
Bernie: Immediatrely after retirment in1985 I purchased a motor home and 4 wheel drive and spent 6 summers approx 7 months each year for 6 yrs in the lost sierra, returning to FL. each winter. I bought a couple of gold dredges and had the greatest time of my life. We, my wife and I did not recover a lot of gold -40 + ounces but that was secondary. Get a forrest svc map and go beyond clipper mills Ca following a dirt road ( 4 wheel drive mandatory ) to race track point on north yuba, also go into canyon creek area below Laporte, most spectalur area in the high sierra.

(Tue Jun 03 1997 08:46)
@the market
I think I'm going to like today in the metals. Maybe not right off, but today.

Au 99.9
(Tue Jun 03 1997 08:56)
@ Wondering
Interesting how an honest question can elicit a response fron a procreational appendage!

(Tue Jun 03 1997 09:00)
Au:99 Searle posts a couple of tomes a week here

(Tue Jun 03 1997 09:06)
@ Wondering
Deadman, you're a gentleman. Thank you.

Bob M
(Tue Jun 03 1997 09:18)
George S. Cole-You are very correct in your observation on the world political spectrum cresting for the conservative movement. In a way that is tragic as the conservative movement of the last few decades has seen so many positive achievements with the death of expansionist communism, unprecedented peace time growth, the global economy evolving positively, even here in the US the 90s has been a very stable period thus far. But if the movement swings to the left dramatically, the seas will become very choppy and monetization will become more apparent in the developed economies. But the big question is how will the former USSR and the downtrodden Eastern European countries survive a major inflation surge? Will they react defensively and revert to aggression and put us back where we were in the 70s? Could get very interesting. Thanks.

(Tue Jun 03 1997 09:29)
@the market
It's early yet, but I can still say, 'How 'bout that platinum'!

(Tue Jun 03 1997 09:41)
XAU down .27....The NDP idiots are goin WILD here..."We showed them in Ottawa" blusters all the Buddy Bretons...I'm off to the woods fer some chainsawin...and a dose of much needed REALITY.....That's called WORK Bretoners....somethin you are very unfamilar with!...Keep puttin that food on the table and see how FAT ya can really the work+money of other Canadians....

George S. Cole
(Tue Jun 03 1997 09:42)
politics and markets
BOB M: History shows that trends tend to go to extremes in both politics and markets. The now cresting conservative tide began as a reaction to the liberal excesses of the 1960s and early 1970s which stifled initiative and allowed inflation to get out of control.

The nascent move to the economic left ( and this includes many culturally right wing populists such as Frances Le Pen ) is a reaction to the gross excesses of the today's conservative movement and its unending attempt further enrich the wealthy and comfortable at the expense of the rest of society. Inflation is down but job insecurity is way up. The last 20 years have been great for investors, executives, the financial community, and many professionals, but much tougher for average people everywhere. Common sense dictates that such a trend cannot continue indefinitely in democratic societies.

(Tue Jun 03 1997 09:43)
@...more good news for gold...darn !
Looks like gold will be down again today in this contrarian logic market.

(Tue Jun 03 1997 10:05)
"A Chicken in Every Speculator's Pot"
Globally acclaimed Analyst sees Gold skyrocketing when leveraged players are forced to buy back their forward sales. Margin calls will cause price to feed on itself higher. See Editorials:

George S. Cole
(Tue Jun 03 1997 10:15)
short-term and long-term
Recent developments in Europe are short-term bearish for gold, but longer-term bullish.

Leftist victory in France and EMU doubts have stregthened the dollar and the relative atractiveness of U.S. investments. German government pressure on BUBA to revalue gold reserves is seen by some as an intermediate step that could well lead to outright sales.

But the apparent cresting of the global conservative tide as evidenced by rising opposition to austerity measures in the advanced capitalist nations is very bullish for the yellow metal longer-term.

(Tue Jun 03 1997 10:16)
Intra-Day Charts
Precious Metals Futures Up led by White Metals: Platinum UP 8.80, Palladium UP 12.20, Silver UP 2 cents, Gold down 10 cents:

(Tue Jun 03 1997 10:25)
ALL.....Anybody else read Deaner this morning ???? He says XAU going lower...Mid to low 90s....I didn't look for it to go that low....I am thinking 96-97.5.....

(Tue Jun 03 1997 10:34)
@packing my suitcase
Nailz--Thanks for the reply. We will not have the time to travel 240 miles this trip but thanks any way. Looks like our company will be opening a wharehouse in Tenn. If they do, I will be back there more often.

(Tue Jun 03 1997 11:13)
nailz: It seems to me that too many people are expecting the XAU to drop below the century mark for it to happen. Those looking for a better buying opportunity to get back in may be disappointed.

(Tue Jun 03 1997 11:28)
to all,the sky is falling............ohhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh..
happy trading.....

(Tue Jun 03 1997 11:38)

(Tue Jun 03 1997 11:55)
George Cole: The conservative swing of the '80s was probably no more than a retracement of the long term 'loose money' trend. The elections of 1994 were nothing more than the final spike in that conservative countertrend rally. As you have been saying, the socialist trend is resuming.

Voters everywhere have now been conditioned to believe that governments and modern economics working in concert, are omnipotent. The unprecedented rise in living standards in this century would seem to put history in their camp. As a result there is absolutely no fear of potential unpleasantness, anywhere.

Given the present mind set of voters, your view is correct and the trend will continue until some natural agency intervenes. People will not be dissuaded from the socialist course by reason. Indeed, why should they? It has worked so nicely for most of this century. In there minds, there is no reason to expect that it won't continue to work into infinity.

(Tue Jun 03 1997 11:57)
To all,
Tomorow 4/june is anniverary of china massacre:"4th june tiananmer square incident"!
check this in time,..
ted ,chck you mail box.

(Tue Jun 03 1997 12:28)
GVC......You may be right. There are some of the market advisories still recommendinglong positions. I am looking for a place to add. Just don't want to do it too early, as that can be very painful.

(Tue Jun 03 1997 12:47)
Arch Crawford was just on the local tube. Next Tues. he's looking for a hugh convergence of stars, planets, etc. which will result in a big drop in stocks and a sharp rise in gold. He thinks gold will be strongly up for the next 1.5 months.

(Tue Jun 03 1997 12:58)
APH......Did Arch mention silver in that statement ?????

(Tue Jun 03 1997 12:59)
The tortfeasor is getting hammered in the market today. Unleaded going down fast, soybeans following close behind and not to forget the gold market which is crusted over with non metalic substances. That being said, I could use an additional joke and I hope you will forbear my offering.

A lady awoke one morning and discovered her dog was not
moving. She called her vet who asked her to bring the dog in.
After a brief examination, the vet pronounced the dog dead.

"Are you sure?", the distraught woman asked. "He was a great
family pet. Isn't there anything else you can do?"

The vet paused for a moment and said, "There is one more thing
we can do." He left the room for a moment and came back
carrying a large cage with a cat in it. The vet opened the cage
door and the cat walked over to the dog. The cat sniffed the dog
from head to toe and walked back to the cage.

"Well, that confirms it." the vet announced. "Your dog is dead."

Satisfied that the vet had done everything he possibly could, the
woman sighed, "How much do I owe you?"

"That will be $330." the vet replied.

"I don't believe it!!!", screamed the woman. "What did you do
that cost $330???"

"Well", the vet replied, "it's $30 for the office visit and $300 for
the cat scan."

Orenthal James
(Tue Jun 03 1997 13:06)

APH: Not too sure about ol' Arch, but like to hear
all opinions. Did he give any figures for the size
of the moves?

(Tue Jun 03 1997 13:11)
Internets favorite economist, George S. Cole, sees DOW peaking in late summer - anticipates start of secular gold bull in same period. See Coles Market Insights - YOU MUST RELOAD:

(Tue Jun 03 1997 13:23)
Crawford made no mention of silver, just the metals in general for tues and gold for the 1.5 months, stocks down as much as 20% short term, down 40-50% by late 1998.

(Tue Jun 03 1997 13:27)
Tortfeasor -- The yellow can't win either way it seems. Regarding unleaded, wasn't there some bill pending in the California legislature about oil companies charging too much for gasoline? I read something about this yesterday, can't remember where. I think fuel prices started going down on this news, something to do with politics I think. :- ) )

I'm now giving serious thoughts to XNG and XOI indexes..... Looking for an entry point. ( There, that should be enough to sink them now! )

(Tue Jun 03 1997 13:40)
The boom:
We in the usa are currently importing about 28% of our consumer goods. In the 1950's it was about 5%. In the 1950's there was about 4.5 square feet of merchandising space per capita in the usa. Today it is about 20 square feet per capita. Could it be that part of our boom of the last five years has been in the planning, design, construction, occupation and utilization of this temple? The topper is it has been paid for with iou's.

(Tue Jun 03 1997 13:55)
APH: I too have been looking at the mid July time frame for several months now. It is an important spiral calendar date by my calculations. Also, July 17 is the 55th trading day from the April 30 low in gold futures.
As far as the dow is concerned, it may have topped on May 27 at 7396 ( 86 squared ) . 55 days from that dated is July 21 which could be an important 'crash' day that also brings down the metals, xau after they have had a nice run-up.

I believe Mike Sheller has also pointed towards the mid July timeframe due to astrological events transpiring at that time.

I have been saying for some time now that on a weekly close basis the gold bear died on March 21 when it closed at 341.50. We have gone lower than that on an intraweek basis but still have not closed a week below that level. Until we do, the bull has begun , in my mind, anyway.

That's the way I am playing it. Who knows for sure , though. Cycles are tricky. You can very easily point towards a particular cycle date in the future for a top only to have it become a bottom instead. But , still, I think the risk/reward ratio is very favorable at this time.

(Tue Jun 03 1997 13:57)
@DFW Airport
Earl: If you have not already done so, read Robert Bork's
Slouching towards Gomorrah. It bears out much of what you
preach about the sad state of fuzzy public thinking that is
prevalent in the US today.

(Tue Jun 03 1997 14:03)
Uris: Judged by the reviews, it is a good read. To me it would be a case of 'preaching to the choir'. Will probably read Davidson's latest, first.

George S. Cole
(Tue Jun 03 1997 14:04)
all news is bad news
Current market sentiment in the gold complex -- all news is bad news -- is typically experienced near the end of secular bear markets. Gold's inability to rally along with platinum and palladium signals a very weak technical picture. There is a good chance bullion and the gold stock indexes soon will test their old lows and possibly take them out. But I remain confident that that we will see a new secular gold bull much sooner than most think.

(Tue Jun 03 1997 14:06)
Uris: As an addendum: Most of us here already understand the problem. What we need is some sort of solution or failing that a way to protect ourselves against the WW's of this world. For they are surely in their ascendancy, once again. The result is not likely to be pretty.

(Tue Jun 03 1997 14:10)
George Cole: Agree again. XAU has short term support at 99. I feel so confident it will hold that I sold half of my position in ABX this morning @24.375. ....If the past is prologue, I will buy it back at 28 or so.... ( :- ) )

Short Bull
(Tue Jun 03 1997 14:11)
@ Midday Comments
Platinum closing so far off it's lows was a good omen for better prices
today. I tried working an order but it did not get filled, another good
sign. I also didn't get long my silver yesterday.

If the XAU closes under 101.00 I will be putting 50% of my Rydex money
in the Rydex Precious Metals fund today. I am 100% long Nova from
Friday with $849.20 close in the June S&P futures needed for break-even.
I will move the remainder 50% into cash.

Daytrading the futures, I did buy again on weakness yesterday. I made
a small trade in another June Mini-Value line from the long side. In
the NASDAQ 100 June futures, 848.50 was support yesterday. Today it was
resistance. I froze today and did not sell but it would have been a great
daytrade from the short side.

If we go down into the Monday Bradley turning point, it should be a bottom
for much higher prices. I was so bullish last weekend after Friday's
stock comeback. What a disappointment! The Invesco Tech fund I bought
on Friday rallied 1.3% yesterday. I will definitely be getting out today,
with hopefully a small profit still. I will be going 100% into Invesco
gold ( Juniors & small growth gold ) which fell 3 ticks yesterday and
probably getting it even cheaper today.

Short Bull
(Tue Jun 03 1997 14:14)
@ Too many people looking for 97 XAU!
When everyone picks out a price to buy....we often never reach that low.
At 97 the XAU is a steal. Today is the 3rd down day. Last time I
bought at 103.02 on the 2nd down day, and made a profit. Today I can
buy even cheaper.....

(Tue Jun 03 1997 14:17)
FIBO: What have relied on to feel comfortable about calling March 21 the low for gold?

(Tue Jun 03 1997 14:18)
@DFW Airport
Earl: Dont be too hard on WW. Like it or not, his socialist babblings
have generated some excellent posts by you and some of the regulars.
We all need to read different points of view.

(Tue Jun 03 1997 14:20)
Short BUll: Apparently, I am a contrary indicator. Pleased to be of service. ....... ( :- ) )

(Tue Jun 03 1997 14:25)
Uris: Of course, that goes without saying. There is nothing personal in any of this. But, given legs, the socialist outcome will not be pleasant. Even for those who cherish it.

(Tue Jun 03 1997 14:26)
A must read is at gold eagle site- A CHICHEN IN EVERY SPECULATOR'S POT!!
thanks vronsky!

Also another one at gold eagle is the story of Crystalex, hit the Grandish button. The stock is up a bunch, what a ride!

Tally Ho!!

(Tue Jun 03 1997 14:26)
Robert Bork
I agree with a previous post regarding Slouching Toward Gomorah by Robert Bork. It is really a must read book for anyone wondering why the USA is indeed seeming to come undone at its core. Its probably the most thought provoking books I have read in several years. He is right on the money in his assessments.

Short Bull
(Tue Jun 03 1997 14:28)
@ Just bought a June Mini Value line at 759.10
I maybe am pushing my luck, but I went long the 4th time in 2 days.

(Tue Jun 03 1997 14:50)
@the market
Well, I didn't get the movement in gold, in either direction, that would have gotten me in it today. I was looking for a deeper drop first, which didn't come, and barring that, a break back above 346.50-346.70 August. So neither down or up fulfilled my criteria. Close, but no cigar. Perhaps tomorrow. If it goes down into Monday, I believe we'll likely see new lows briefly. A most perfect buying opportunity should it present itself for about 10 micro-seconds before it comes popping back up!

(Tue Jun 03 1997 15:13)
To All:

Just what do you suppose the boys from Almaz had to say to their Japanese PGM customers today? Hey buddy, can you spare an ingot? Pa up a mere $22.50 in the spot. Pl along for the ride. Keep an eye on silver. The lease rates are starting to tighten, which means someone or group of someones is starting to nibble away at the spot metal. Seeing how well the last corner has worked, it looks like the boys might be at it again.
If silver moves like Pa did we could see 9$ silver in six months. Kind of takes your breath away. In reality ( mine anyway ) , if a someone goes after the silver market the results may be more spectacular due the fact there is a much bigger options market and more retail participation. Option convexity can be a glorious thing.

(Tue Jun 03 1997 15:14)
@EARL/ ooops , wrong date!
EARL: OOPS! Sorry, I meant to post April 18th ( not march 21 ) as the low weekly close date for gold @341.50. I was accidently looking at the 3rd week of march rather than the correct third week of April.

I based my conclusion due to a fibonacci number related A-B-C correction on a WEEKLY CLOSE basis only from the Feb'96 highs.

Return to Kitco Homepage


(Tue Jun 03 1997 15:20)
JIN: Just got in from running my chainsaw in the woods and thank you very much for your e-mail ( some hints ) ...very interesting!...About my brother in Bangkok I'd like to use the chainsaw on him...hahaha...He is a lawyer ( no offense Tort ) and we are not on speaking terms these days because some USA lawyers are CROOKS!

George S. Cole
(Tue Jun 03 1997 15:27)
swing to the left
I find it hard to fathom the hostility towards WW on this forum. Some people are putting ideology ahead of their pocketbooks. For unless WW and I are correct about an impending swing to the political left, there probably will not be a really big move in gold. Anybody hoping to strike it rich in gold stocks should be praying for a swing to the left.

Pepino di Cortino
(Tue Jun 03 1997 15:28)
Les Pyranass,belle, belle

Bernatz: I missa your ( 05:09 ) . Thanka you for le belle
complimente abouta my Engleesh.
But justa 10 words from your BRILLIANTE poste, they ringa
like dissa famousa Engleesha guy, the Shaka di Speer.
( Shakespeer )
My posti, with a buncha word, they resounda like, dissa
guy who calla himself with da Two W's, after he hitta his
head on the wall. Maybe, he maka the gold go up??

(Tue Jun 03 1997 15:31)
@SI post
3613. repack on jun 2 1997 10:25pm

Three-two-five update:

I've got George S. Cole broke to lead.

They hate me so much over on K-1 that

they actually want gold to go down now

so that George S. Cole can be right.

I love it. I could never have caused

them to ever admit to it on my own.

$325 here we come.

( And especially sweet now that it

has the imprimatur of GSC ) .

What a great time to be alive, in the

time of three-two-five.

(Tue Jun 03 1997 15:34)
Tort ( 12:59 ) Cat scan...hahahaha...On gettin in from the woods the little woman asked "did you move your Kayak"...I I didn't move it..
It was GONE!...panic city...rushed down to the bottom of the front yard and there it was over the cliff...Thank God it was low tide or it would have been history...Hard to believe the wind can blow a 16.5 foot boat over 20 feet and over a small cliff but.....

Short Bull
(Tue Jun 03 1997 15:47)
@ closing
I rotated my mutual funds from the Rydex Nova ( 150% S & P ) to
1/2 invested in Rydex Precious Metals ( XAU index ) and half in
the OTC fund ( grabbing the weakness today in tech ) . Go XAU!
This way if we go lower I can sell the NASDAQ 100 against my
cash position in the mutual funds. I can also daytrade by
selling into strength on the futures and locking in profits
in my mutual funds.

(Tue Jun 03 1997 15:49)
Ted, you are talking Albuquerque type breezes which are required to seize upon the hull of your mighty kayak and thrust it unthinkingly over the brink. I'm glad you got it back without going dinghy with worry. Maybe you should tie it to a tree and weight it down with gold bars.

George S. Cole
(Tue Jun 03 1997 15:53)
XAU now under 100. Looks like we're on our way to 97-98. Strength of subsequent rally will be very interesting.

(Tue Jun 03 1997 15:56)
Tort: Great idea!...if gold gets any cheaper maybe I'll buy some of them gold bars and use em as kayak weights...could start a new trend in kayak gear....gotta run as it's time fer "the chef" ta do his thing.....Hope I didn't scare Jin with that chainsaw remark...hahaha..

(Tue Jun 03 1997 15:57)
@ Closing The Gap!
George: Look's like the XAU wants to close that Weekly Gap at 97 which APH mentioned yesterday.

(Tue Jun 03 1997 16:03)
Byron: don't count on it. look how long it took for the XAU to close its weekly gaps at the beginning of its run to 155 from its 106 low late '95 to Feb'96. Many traders are waiting to get in expecting that gap to close but could end up waiting a loooong time.

(Tue Jun 03 1997 16:07)
@ Pa and Pl
D.A. I for one want to thank you for keeping us appraised of the situation on the hot whites. They are doing exactly as you predicted a few days ago. If it weren't for these two it would be torture being in precious metals these days. Hope you are right now about Ag.

Ted: THE LITTLE WOMAN??!! Look out for incoming $#!+ from the opposite sex, aimed in the general direction of Mira Bay....; )

(Tue Jun 03 1997 16:08)
Check Mcwatters Mining Long Term??

FOR INFO ONLY: McWatters Mining is in deal to buy PDG's
Sigma and Kiena Mines. I see about 46 million+ shares
outstanding after proposed 1 for 3 reverse split. Sigma
may have had its problems of late, but McWatters a small
company dedicated to the area should do OK with Sigma.
Check her out. if your inclined to. Do your DD.
Try, then hit the Business and
Investing line and find quote box, put in ME:MCW.a, for
price and newsreleases. Also story in the Northern Miner
about them. Happy Trails.

George S. Cole
(Tue Jun 03 1997 16:13)
XAU and HUI rallied a bit off their lows in last minute of trading. Could this portend a rally tomorrow?

(Tue Jun 03 1997 16:17)
@DFW Airport
Earl and others: As Robert Bork suggests in the final chapter of Slouching towards Gomorrah, The only way to avoid being dragged
down by the liberals is for the conservatives to mount an effective
alternative. So far I have seen no indication of this.
We can only hope it is not too late.

(Tue Jun 03 1997 16:41)
Uris: Mr. Bork and many others are advocating the responsible approach. No question about it. Unfortunately, the lure of something for nothing will overcome reason every time. IMO, it is far better to devote one's energy to building barriers against the madness. Protect yourself from them at all cost. If necessary, be prepared to leave entirely. Sooner or later the madness will end. None of this means the end of the world.

Many here are of the opinion that reason must prevail before we encounter a serious and very painful collapse. We must change the present system and return to something more prudent both fiscally and morally. The counter point is that our lives have been materially improved solely as a result of more liberal policies installed and improved upon over the past 80 years or more. And that there is no compelling reason to return to a more conservative posture. ...... As of today; how do you think that argument will be decided? ...... Protect yourself at all costs.

(Tue Jun 03 1997 16:49)
Klaus Dieter Kuebacher says Buba "will resist paying out assets from a revaluation of its assets" before spring 98.
So this means they double the value of their gold so they can sell half of it, keep the profit and still have the same reserves? Do I hear a hungry bear growling?

(Tue Jun 03 1997 16:52)
@ Seating At The Feet Of The Gurus
Well all the gurus are saying early next week is the change ( June 9 -10 ) . ( Favors and Arch ) Well what am I supposed to do meanwhile while I wait for next week to show up. : (

(Tue Jun 03 1997 16:57)
To George: I don't wish for things to happen which I consider bad for my country ( move to the economic left ) in order for me to score some profits in the metals. Anyway, it may not be good for metals. The continued growth of the public sector will drain money from the private sector. In that scenario, gold may be considered a worthless commodity ( exaggerating a bit ... but could lose substantial value ) . With a declining standard of livings, things like food ( and commodities likes oil and natural gas ) will be much more important than gold.

(Tue Jun 03 1997 17:00)
@ One More Week
GVC: Well in a week its all going to be mute. Arch Crawford is bullish on gold ( Big change coming on 6/10 ) . He says so, so it must be true. The XAU has one week to fill that gap or else its going to have to wait a couple of years.... Meanwhile, I wait for next Tuesday ( 6/10 ) ... Maybe I can just go for a long hike until then.

(Tue Jun 03 1997 17:00)
George Cole: As usual you are able to separate your investment posture from core personal philosophy and see only the investment possibilities. Many including me, find WW's political ideas antithetical to our own and ..... you know how it is ....... a bit too much cheap red wine, the blood is running hot, our roommate is not as amiable as she was yesterday and someone is gonna pay! ...... ( :- ) )

Note: that only explains, it doesn't excuse.

(Tue Jun 03 1997 17:02)

The world ain't such a bad place. The fiscal problems that we currently have can be solved fairly easily. A few adjustments to the CPI, a little means testing, moving the retirement age out a few years to reflect the reality of increased life span and voila, Social Security is saved. As for the social morass that some feel is upon us, take heart. Things are actually changing for the better. In my ex-hometown of NYC the murder rate has dropped by more than 50% over the last few years. Violent crime in general is way down across the country. Moral of the story, uncork ( or if you must, unscrew ) a fine bottle of red, and enjoy the day. You only get so many, make them all count.

(Tue Jun 03 1997 17:14)

The Buba does not want to sell any gold even in the event of a revaluation. All that would occur is that the 'profits' from revaluation would be transfered to the government's account. This would amount to printing DM's. If the Buba want's to sterilize the transaction, they would have to do so through open market operations to reduce money supply by the same amount. The article that you have quoted is yet another indication of the Buba's true feelings towards EMU. Now that the French have cast their ballots, the Germans realize that it will either be an inclusive, soft EMU or no EMU. The Buba clearly indicates by their rhetoric that no EMU is their choice. This is going to come down to a power struggle between the Buba and Kohl. Given that the majority of German citizens are opposed to giving up their DM, the Buba should be holding the cards.

(Tue Jun 03 1997 17:26)
D.A.: Wise counsel. In recent weeks I actually begun to adopt it. Though habits of a lifetime are difficult to change.

BTW: I meant to comment a earlier that the PA chart looks pretty good. The weakness that was, seems to have dissolved as the price came back to the 20 day ma. In short, it seems that the dip last week, was all a matter of going too far too fast. As Ray would say: Tally HO!

(Tue Jun 03 1997 17:30)
D.A. - You mentioned the responsible solutions to fix S.S. ( also applies to Medicare ) . My ranting and raving on the subject is directed to WW love on continuing the ponzi scheme by raising tax rates ( sure he mentioned means testing ... that is only a small drop in the bucket ) . The proper actuarial changes have to do with CPI adjustments and age eligibility. Things WW whined about last week when I mentioned them. Maybe he has changed his tune on those two topics since last week. Gold may do better in a wealthier private sector over the long haul. Supply and Demand reasons for metals increases. It may also be a political instrument ... however, I wouldn't put my money on that. Domestic Oil and gas exploration stocks may be better political stocks.
Whether people like it or not, the fundamentals for metals are different than decades ago ( i.e. as a monetary instrument ) . We now operate in a paper and paper deficit mode ( which I may not like myself ) . I don't see politicians changing that anytime soon. I am interest in the mining industry from the demand, supply angle ... and the cost to extract the metals.

(Tue Jun 03 1997 17:33)
Byron- Based on Crawfords' track record calling currencies, bullion, and the S&P last year, I'm having a hard time feeling encouraged.

George S. Cole
(Tue Jun 03 1997 17:35)
insider buying
Steve Kaplan reports heavy insider buying in Echo Bay. Is anyone here aware of significant insider buying in other gold stocks?

(Tue Jun 03 1997 17:41)
@...hey Peppeno whata you talka bout ?
I tella you inna Italiano and jewdona capisha ? Whata kinda Italiano you isa anyways !? Maybe you donna speaka da lingua Dante but a Brooklena acchenta of da englisha ?! Si or Non !?

ciao meza matza !;- )

George S. Cole
(Tue Jun 03 1997 17:47)
gold and hard times
EWP: Sorry, but the really big moves in gold and gold stocks only occur in times of severe economic and political stress and tension, when capital is SCARED. Gold stocks scored their best gains by far during the 1929-33 depression and the 1970s inflation when a sitting president was forced to resign.

I believe it was John D. Rockefeller who said during the depression, "I would gladly give away half my fortune if I could be sure of keeping the other half". When such statements are again heard in the land, gold probably will selling for at least $2000 an ounce.

(Tue Jun 03 1997 17:48)
@Yield to Temptatation

D.A. Re 17:14--It seems to me that Germany is
running into the same problem as France. Many of
the same conditions such as uncompetitive
industries, demands for social spending and high
unemployment exist there as well. This runs
contrary to the Buba's commitment to a rock solid
D Mark. My guess is that if things continue to get
worse, the politics of Germany will go the way of
the French. If that happens, the German central
bank may have to yield.

(Tue Jun 03 1997 17:49)

It is looking like the decline late last week was a function of two things, first notice in the June Comex contract and the then upcoming visit to Japan by Almaz. Many of the funds that are purely paper players probably decided to cash out and not roll for fear that the weekend meetings would bring a big load of Pa to market. Since this has apparently not materialized for whatever reason, the long story still appears to be intact. Should the price continue to rise throughout the Russian visit this would be very bullish and probably bring the squeeze to its terminal phase, as Japanese shorts are forced to cover and where insane volatility would be the order of the day. If Tiger fund is to win the game, their exit strategy will probably involve sales directly to commercial users. Since it is probably apparent to the commercial users what is going on, they may attempt to put up a fight. However, with one month lease rates over 50% it would appear that all the metal is in very strong hands. Since the current supply / demand deficit ( not counting sales from stockpiles ) is around 10,000 oz's per work day, the pressure builds every day. When it finally breaks it will be big on the downside, but I'm still hoping and wishing the chart ends up looking like coffee and that we make as good a decision. Time, and probably not too much of it, will tell.

(Tue Jun 03 1997 17:53)
George: In my view, things are different now than the 30s and 70s. If BC was impeached this summer, I don't believe you would see gold reach $500 an ounce. Maybe I wrong. I can't read the stars. I believe the fundamentals are different now.

(Tue Jun 03 1997 17:55)

Agree no EMU for Germans, but much looser money for
German economy, perhaps against the better judgement
of Buba.

Mike Sheller
(Tue Jun 03 1997 17:59)
The Astrological Investor
Just came back from 5 days inFlorida. Do you know what I missed most? Kitco...that's what. Watched the XAU on CNBC in my lovely surfside hotel room overlooking the magnificent sea with sand in my toes...and what am I thinking???? How are the guys and gals at Kitco handling this? Just scrolled thru today and you know what? I have to say this is ONE enjoyable site. Just had to let you 'all know.

(Tue Jun 03 1997 18:05)

What is http:// for this site Thanks. ( got heree via
search )

(Tue Jun 03 1997 18:06)
D.A. While I generally agree with your explanation, I still feel there is something missing. I will risk a few ignorant questions to stimulate the discussion and expand my learning. Would the accounting shenanigans of transferring the "profits" from revaluation soften the DM more than a small ( 23 billion figure heard somewhere ) sale of gold? If Germany is going to EMU ( remember the economic costs of no EMU are great or perceived to be by EU ) can it take a risk on a softer DM for a stronger EMU? The EMU is itself an shortcut to an economic advantage over USA/NAFTA and Japan/little tigers "trade blocks" is it not? In the world economic competition Europe is playing catch up and needs the EMU desperately. When you give up currency control you give up fiscal control and therefore a lot of your sovereignty; they must be serious to even consider it. Are we too blindsided by our association with the ultimate hard currency to see what they are seeing/trying/doing? Or is the Big Trader scenario possible; are Asian buyers secretly accumulating gold to later attack soft EMU and debt ridden US dollar with some reserve currency of their own? Sorry for so many questions : ) )

(Tue Jun 03 1997 18:11)
Bank checking and saving accounts and CD's:
When you "deposit" currency or such into a bank checking or saving account or "purchase" a bank CD, you are making a loan to the bank. The courts have consistently ruled thus. What are the banks putting up as collateral for this loan? Not a single thing.

(Tue Jun 03 1997 18:18)
@ First You Have To Know Where You Are:
Mulrooney: Try

(Tue Jun 03 1997 18:23)

Byron: is there addition to that? It gets me to
kitco main page but cant seem to get here. Thanks.

(Tue Jun 03 1997 18:26)
@ Jumping To Concussions:
EWP: pardon a potentially stupid question, but does EWP stand to Elliott Wave Principle???? : )

(Tue Jun 03 1997 18:35)
Byron: no sir, it doesn't. I changed my handle from AG ( my initials ) because people may have thought I was funning with that handle ( since that is also Mr. Greenspan's initials ) . Why EWP? I think I was thinking of a British name when somebody was talking about the British Elections .. Ellington Wales Paddington ( as in Paddington Bear ) .

Try This
(Tue Jun 03 1997 18:38)

(Tue Jun 03 1997 18:41)
EWP: Ellington Wales Paddington??? Ya made that up; dint you??? .. ( :- ) ) Imagine going through boot camp with a name like that. Almost as bad as a boy named Sue. LOL

(Tue Jun 03 1997 18:54)
Mike Sheller: Was wondering where you were....Welcome back!

(Tue Jun 03 1997 18:56)

Try This, Byron: Merci beaucoup! Thanks.

(Tue Jun 03 1997 19:01)
@2 on 1

Earl @18:41--LOL!! Better be careful. You may have
Paul AND EWP after you!

(Tue Jun 03 1997 19:10)
narrowed scope
ww, george s. cole, & earl:

have any of you spent any time whatsoever in china within the last 5 years? if you had, you might consider rephrasing your socialism-trend renewal statements such that they reflect trends in the western world. the trends you see in the west will simply hasten the wests economic decline, while asia is simply shifting into second gear economically.

earl, in all likelihood, the natural agency that will intervene after the west embarks upon renewed socialist paths will be persistent 10% and higher rates of unemployment. the french can teach us all about it.

(Tue Jun 03 1997 19:11)
@New England
Revaluation of gold by Germans is extremely bullish for gold and this is why Bubba opposes it. Pricing gold at current value by the German govt creates windfall for govt but could be perceived as placing a floor under gold at $340 which I do not think Wall St/Bay St/Fleet St. and the CBs want. They desire the flexibility to contain gold and this requires the perception of risk and downside in gold below $340. Why would this create a floor? Ask yourself the Ques. WOULD THE GERMAN GOVT RECOGNIZE A LOSS AND REDUCE THEIR "BUDGET RELIEF" IF GOLD FELL BELOW 340. If pigs fly. ERGO a floor. Worse yet other govts might get the same idea and buy gold. They could use higher prices to print more money. Buba is worried about this and hey if Gold went to 440 the German Govt could get another windfall/and they ( Govt ) surely will not want it to fall! ( New Gold std by default which govs support because it gives them easy money/thus new CB_Govt conflict/guess who wins ) . Remember politicians run for reelection CBs dont. The combination of the recent elections and especially German Gold re valuation is laying the basis for the bull. Not to mention the fiscal chaos from the impending Econ slump. Socialist call in France for CB govt control very telling. Not dissimilar to or own boys whining when Greenspan tightened a bit and the Dow swooned a whole 9%. Ask yourself what the boys on Capitol Hill would be doing if the Dow swooned 40%. I ponder that the response to the Japanese Attack on Pearl Harbor would look lame in comparison.

I want to fix SS that is the only moral thing to do. A broad based 5cent tax and discontinuing the trust Fund raids as Democrats have proposed and Republicans have opposed would do the trick. To call me a Socialist for such a proposal is emotional demogaguery!

(Tue Jun 03 1997 19:16)

I don't believe that the issue with regard to the Buba is the actual effect that either gold sales or revaluation would have to the money supply or even the consequences for the DM. It appears that there are two things at play, one the independence of the Buba and two their apparent desire not to give it up. In the first instance, the money from gold revaluation has been handed over to the government accounts on a yearly basis. Wiegal wanted to take some of next years money and move it into this year for EMU purposes. If the Buba allowed this to move to go unchallenged it would have severly weaken their image as being independant. Since the whole idea of fiat currency is based upon 'trust' a central bank can not afford to lose credibility as that will ultimately cost them dearly in the financial markets.

The idea that Europe needs a single currency badly in order to catch up to NAFTA and the Asian trading blocks seems flawed. After all, here in North America the three currencies that we have do not seem to be an impediment to trade. One could easily make the case that in mismatched economies it is desireable to have different currencies. For example, the Mexican Peso devaluation of a few years back resulted in an immediate change in the trade balance and forced a measure of fiscal sanity upon Mexico. I think what the Germans fear, and IMHO rightly so, is that once they give up control of their currency they may be faced with a European Central Bank that is willing to supply money at the rate that pleases the neediest economy, because this will be the political path of least resistance. Given that the German collective nightmare is hyperinflation, this is not a path they wish to tred upon. The problems of Europe from a competitive standpoint appear to be high cost employment, and a massive unyielding bureaucracy. These need to be addressed through structural reform, not a devalued currency.

As for the Asians buying up all the gold and forming a reserve currency of their own, who knows. One thing to realize is that Japan has a poorer balance sheet than the US even though their debt has smaller coupons attached. I don't really believe that the world will ever revert to a gold standard or anything like it. I think that what is evolving is that the financial markets through their free market rate setting will keep the fiscal houses in order.

(Tue Jun 03 1997 19:20)
Earl: yes, I made that up! Since I was cheering for the Tories, I had to think up an appropriate alias. : )

(Tue Jun 03 1997 19:27)
WW: D.A. posted the responsible fixes to S.S. ( also applies to Medicare ) . I posted them a few weeks ago to you. What you support is continuing the ponzi schemes. Maybe you should get involved in politics with your rhetoric. Although, I'm hopeful that things will change ( over the next 3-5 years ) and flatten the tax, tax, tax ideas you promote to grow the public sector at the expense of the private sector ( of raising taxes, find a new revenue grab here and there ) .

Pablo Escobar
(Tue Jun 03 1997 19:27)
Earl: Six tons of the white stuff, far out dude! Can ya send me some of it???...Worth alot more than Gold and is much more fun!

(Tue Jun 03 1997 19:33)
Public Schools

D.A.@ 19:16--Good point. In other words, the EMU
might be considered a "dumbing down" of the European
currencies. Seems to be a popular thing these days.

(Tue Jun 03 1997 19:35)
@New England
ERIC: Sorry to burst your bubble but I am in contact with some people who might be considered high ranking Chinese involved in international organizations. They are commited marxists to the core who are using Capitalism and political slave labor to develop yheir power for the struggle against "decadent freedom". Asia is very backwards otherwise the truly smart Asians wouldnt be flocking here. Hats off to your well intentioned romanticism.

Fact: NO MFN FOR RUSSIA/RUSSIA fell and things improved for the Wesr vis a vis Russia. They got MFN after PoLITICAL REFORMS ie Freedom began to be established.

MFN for China because of the all to typical demand for short term profit will yield the exact opposite result vis a vis the Chinese Marxists in comparison to what happened with Russia. Lenin and Mao said give the Capitalist a rope and he will hang himself for a profit. This is why the west needs to act on the basis of principal versus the murderous Marxist regime in Beijing.
The same progressive reports about China sound like the hopeful refrain from the 30s about the economic progress in Nazi Germany and Fascist Italy. WAKE UP!!!

(Tue Jun 03 1997 19:36)

Your 'fix' to Social Security is socialist in its effort to redistribute wealth through taxation. If you are uncomfortable with the sobriquet perhaps your thinking ought to change. I fail to understand how it is moral to increase taxes to make payments for something that was not designed to be what it has become because of a change in demographics. To me the 'moral' thing would be to give everyone who has contributed to the system their proper share of all the government bonds that are now owned by the trust funds and let them do what they wanted with them. In addition I would scrap the entire Social Security taxation scheme and implement a welfare program for aged people who are in need. I am sympathetic to your viewpoint that one measure of society is how well it treats those in need. However, your policy for wealth equalization through increased taxation is socialist, and demonstrably a failure in every society on earth in which it has been tried.

(Tue Jun 03 1997 19:51)
@italic fonts
Bart: I absolutely and definitely don't like the new italic fonts.. ; ( ( (

All: what do you think about that ?

(Tue Jun 03 1997 19:54)
@italic fonts
Bart + All : that is very stunning indeed, the fonts just returned
to their normal and usual look...
What happened ???

(Tue Jun 03 1997 19:54)
Eric: Yes, I visited China in the summer of 1993. It only served to increase my fascination with all of Asia and whet my appetite for more. It is counted among the most interesting experiences of my life. The Chinese are in a state of transition and there is no way of knowing where change and the future will take them. It is safe to say though, that their view of 'socialism' has no room for the weepy, romantic illusions held by similar proponents in the west.

(Tue Jun 03 1997 19:57)
@New England
If what you proposed was possible I would support you 1000%. In fact, I would like to see SS privatized. The bonds you speak of are IOUS which the govt has issued because the SURPLUS PAST AND CURRENTwas/is borrowed by the govt to fund current operations or otherwise the budget deficit would be much larger and thus result in a weaker dollar/higher rates and stagnant financial markets. Now the reason there is an SS surplus is because of demographics ie more workers ie baby boomers working. Quite naturally if the surplus were left alone the system would have worked ( stop borrowing now and it will be better ) as the earnings on the surplus would have more than paid baby boomer benefits w/o taxing our "children". The financial institutions and to a lesser extent all society has benefited by taking the surplus which would have secured baby boomer retirement without a tax increase on our children. The only moral thing to do is tax those who benefited from the raid on the trust funds to properly compensate future retirees for the money taken from their SS and Medi trust fund which benefited financial institutions through covering up the deficit and borrowing needs and thereby creating artificially low interest rates. This is justice/ you borrow money/you pay it back. Financials and to a lesser degree all of society benefits from trust fund raids/ workers have paid in the beneficiaries pay back what was appropriated for their benefit in the form of a broad based or otherwise appropriate tax. To not believe in this is to believe it is moral for one to renege on a legal debt!!!

(Tue Jun 03 1997 20:00)
Canadian @ is it possible ?????
George S. Cole June 03 @ 17:47 ::: " John D. Rockefeller who said during the depression, [ I would gladly give away half my fortune if I could be sure of keeping the other half ]"

Canada is in a depression, and Canada has given away half of it's wealth, in the hope of keeping the other half. The NAFTA, is in fact been forced on Canada, by the International Bankers. Last night,in Canada, these Bankers have effectively divided Canada into four ( 4 ) regions, ( Eastern Canada, Quebec, Central Canada, and Western Canada. )

Consider, the amazing success of the Reform Party. Canada could now be merged politically with the USofA, via, the Reform Party. ( Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition Party )

During a research of the net,regarding Canada's new Trade Agreement with the USofA ( M.A.I. ) . I came across a web site, that has serious allegations, in reference to the Free Trade Agreement, ( NAFTA. )

The USofA agenda for Canada the * Integration * of Canada and the USofA.

The *secret* aspect of the free trade agreement *suggests* that 40% of Canada's resources must be given to the USofA, not 10%, as public stated.

Gold, is a resource, and the USofA is Bankrupt, as stated at this site. It stands to reason, that the financial salvation of the USofA, could in fact be accomplished, by obtaining the natural resources of Canada. ( 40% )

USofA has Barrick Gold as a major player, and Bush, and Mulroney, as advisers, sooooo, ABX should be in your individual portfolio.

40 % of Canada's Gold, could keep the price of Gold down, CB's are a factor, but what if Canada's Gold is being used to fix the Gold price.

Is this Participant reading this correct, if, there is in fact, a degree of truth, in the material posted at the web site mentioned above.

We at this site, have been subjected to many conspiracy, or plot theory,
but, are always in reference to the happening in the USofA. This is a first for Canada. Well considering the Canadian Federal Election results, the web site very much suggests,the results were predicted, and we as Canadians should congratulate the success of these International Bankers, they in fact, have done an outstanding job.

WOW, we are *dumb* Canadians, eh! GOLD, being manipulated, has nothing on a Democratic Country, and it's people being manipulated.
Kindness, and Consideration, is in fact, a weakness.

(Tue Jun 03 1997 20:11)
Did a 2 year old kid make the promise to pay for someone's entitlements? They are the ones who will be paying for the credit card bill. And they are the ones who will TRY to enter the workforce in a society that his high tax rates to fund entitlements ( your retirement ... in which you'll probably get more than you contributed plus interest and inflation due to people living longer ) .

(Tue Jun 03 1997 20:12)
@Elliott Wave Theorist notes
A couple of excerpts from the latest issue of The Elliott Wave Theorist:

1. ) "The XAU index should thrust up in wave V to a new all-time high..."

2. ) " In 1989 , the year the Nikkei topped out, Elliott Wave Theorist reported that in Tokyo, some prosperous Japanese were sprinkling gold flakes on their cereal. Today in the U.S., in the equivalent 15th year of a stock mania, the Cellar in the Sky restaurant at the top of the World Trade Center has begun offering a dessert featuring edible gold."

Strad Master
(Tue Jun 03 1997 20:18)
WW: While I don't agree with anything you write about govermnent or your ideas regarding SS, Medicare, taxation, etc. you are obviously a very thoughtful and compassionate individual. For you to endure what you sometimes put up with here on Kitco ( even from me ) is a sign of a very comitted and steadfast person. Kudos for that! I recently read "The Sovereign Individual" by James Dale Davidson and Lord William Rees-Mogg. I highly recommend it to anyone interested in markets and especially gold. If you have a chance, please pick up a copy. It is quite fascinateing although not always an easy read. I'd be very interested in your contrary opinion of it. Gotta go now. I'll be back later.

(Tue Jun 03 1997 20:21)
WW: The words to follow are intended to ellicit understanding only. They should not be construed as a personal attack of any kind.

The reason I am taking this approach is because I frequently read and perceive your political comments as an invitation to combat. As well, it is often difficult to understand your position. As it is in the first paragraph of the post regarding China. My initial reaction was that you supported the present form of government. Perhaps my perception is colored by precedent posts or simple bias but for some reason we are not communicating. I have no quarrel with your right to advocate higher taxes or anything else, for that matter, but your advocacy often comes across the screen in the form of ad hominem attacks. ..... Just musing...

(Tue Jun 03 1997 20:24)
@New England
EWP: I Think you are hard of reading/read my last post and this and stop talking about the children's tax bill/ I have addressed the solutions. I want to save the system by having the beneficiaries pay back the debt and stop the current raids on SS and Medi to paper over the deficit. Apparently you think the stealing from the current and future trust surpluses should continue/please answer yes or no on this one!

I understand why rightists hate earned entitlements/ it makes their time in power very short ala the very smart French People. Demand what you have paid for!!!

(Tue Jun 03 1997 20:24)
ww - my partner transacts multimillion-dollar commodity agreements throughout asia, particularly for large-scale infrastructure development projects. no romanticism here, and no bubble - just acknowledgement that western economies are locking themselves into prolonged miniature growth rates.

hasta luego.

(Tue Jun 03 1997 20:29)
what's sauce for the goose...
WW: Isn't it true that you represent people in court who are reneging on legal debts? If it's ok for 1,000,000 people to seek "protection" from their creditors, why is it terrible for 250,000,000 to do the same thing, via their elected officials?

EWP: WW and I have over 70+ email round trips over two months time frame and no perceptible changes in either "views". Does this help?

(Tue Jun 03 1997 20:32)
@New England

Eric: The growth rates are high because of the low base. If the west didnt buy from these people watch what happens to those growth rates.
B/C US growth is debt expansioned based we will get to see this real soon.

(Tue Jun 03 1997 20:40)
Just as Dia met , Diamond Feilds, Aber, And BRE-X educated the world on what type of price appreciation is possible in mining stocks, Palladium is educating the world on what kind of price action that can occurr in the metals mrkts.

The gold shorts must be nervous about the PGM, if not they are stupid

(Tue Jun 03 1997 20:45)
@New England
In a sense your anaolgy is correct. However, SS and Medi are indirectly paid for by all working Americans. Almost all families do and will benefit. Further, you surely do not condone the persisting raids. The financial institutions and Govt pork / foreign aid have benefited greatly from the raids/ the people just will need their money back from those who benefited. The French and Canadian Elections are heartening because when and if they ( US ) ever try to seriously renege on their debt to the working people who have paid into the system AND they feel the effect BYE BYE to that party and ideology. Democratic citizens ala France are smarter than you think. It is not about something for nothing/ it is about not letting the govt work solely for the interests of Capital.

If the US Govt reneges on its promises then the majority will elect a govt which will enforce the promises. Lets stop the Raids on the Trust funds now! Speed agree or disagree?On stopping the raids that is.

(Tue Jun 03 1997 20:47)
WW -- Isn't the accounting for the various taxes a fiction? In other words, the Federal taxes, FICA, Medicare, etc. 'deductions', are all monies flowing in to one pot. The SS money is 'invested' in T-Bills, ( :~{, which is another way of saying, "We spent tomorrows money today!" There is no 'raiding' of the 'Trust' funds because there aren't any! It is all an accounting fiction.

(Tue Jun 03 1997 20:55)
D.A. Sorry I could not keep up with this real time, work work work. If we have all these good reasons for Germany not to go EMU then why are they trying so hard? I tend to agree with you but are we missing something from their perspective?
WW Thanks for your input on Euro, your views have merit, but did you have to bring up SS again? I mean its OK but can we rest it for awhile, oops, delivery ...gotttaa goo!

Senator Blutarsky
(Tue Jun 03 1997 20:56)
@Senate Farewell Address

Tonight I come before you to announce my retirement
from the Senate. I have done all I can as a senator.
It is time to move on. I leave you at the time of
the best buying opportunity in gold since I was
elected to office. Good night, and good fortune.
......By the way, NOTHING is over until WE say it

(Tue Jun 03 1997 20:56)
@New England
Your BR analogy is incorrect as probably 200 million Americans benefit and expect to benefit from the benefits they paid for. The primary beneficiaries are large financials and the wealthier among us who benefit from the financial asset inflation as a result of using SS surpluses to cover up the deficit and reduce borrowing costs. Because of their position these entities/individuals under the US BANKRUPTCY CODE do not qualify for protection. However, those who have credit card and other debts from whom you propose to rob SS and Medicare probably will qualify. Then if some DR. doesnt treat them or their children at a hospital when they are sick then our system at least allows us to sue the but off the DR and the hospital. "Trial Lawyers = best guarantee of health care for those in need from those in greed."

(Tue Jun 03 1997 20:58)
@Ca yours of 19:11....good post, found your analysis of German revaluation very interesting. We are seeing cracks in the CB armor. I too want to fix SS, but why a 5 cent tax? Why not stop the cheating in our current system. There are 100's of billions in tax revenue lost to the cash and barter underground economy and general corporate tax evasion and corporate welfare. Your broad based 5 cent tax will make the same people who have not been cheating pay again.

(Tue Jun 03 1997 21:00)
Where is gold going? It is pretty da**ed pathetic when the worry of the day is inflation, and the classic inflation hedge is disintegrating before our very eyes! Everyone talks about the economic numbers weakening a tenth of a percent here and there, and we're supposed to think that a depression is coming! GIVE ME A BREAK! The numbers are good, 5.8% GDP?! This is recessionary?

Ok, I feel better now having vented my spleen here. Has anybody noticed that Seagate, Intel, Cabletron, IBM, and HP have reported lower than expected earnings? The blame being placed at the sluggish European door step? Perhaps, just perhaps, the incipient signs of business turmoil due to currency manipulations?

(Tue Jun 03 1997 21:10)
just finish this story,useful guide,....
good nite all.

(Tue Jun 03 1997 21:10)
Anyone seen this

(Tue Jun 03 1997 21:13)
does it matter?
WW: I have read today's posts and I think I agree with you on two points. 1. China should not be given MFN without serious changes in human rights policies. 2. SS should be moved off-budget, either privatized, ( I would prefer abolished with the bonds distributed ) , or abolished slowly with payouts declining as taxes are cut not raised. If any large govt. program is suddenly moved off-budget or abolished, the shock will cause the financial collapse we all talk about. We must all be careful what we wish for. If you well-meaning folks truly desire to provide for the less fortunate and throw out a net to catch the inept and unlucky, you are welcome to do so with your own money. If you don't want society to be burdened with the freeloaders and spendthrifts, then don't support them and don't make the rest of us support them to make you feel better. I don't believe you are a socialist, else you wouldn't mangle the quotes so badly : ) Please look up the quote by Lenin. It's much closer to "The capitalists will sell us the rope we use to hang them." Good intentions aren't enough. As Winston Churchill said: "If a man isn't a liberal by the time he is twenty, then he has no heart and if he isn't a conservative by the time he is forty, then he has no head."

Speed's Axiom: The temperature and volume of the political rhetoric here is inversely proportional to the direction of change in the XAU.

(Tue Jun 03 1997 21:15)
@New England
Panda: It is a fiction which was not meant to be a fiction. As FDR established the system it would work today. Everyone knows Demographics change so the trust fund was set up to save for times when there were more workers working than being paid off the system. The maintenance of the surpluses and the earnings thereon would pay those workers when the situation reverses. In 1983 they started under Dole and Reagan to appropriate the surpluses to cover up the deficit a policy which with Republican support and Congressional Democratic opposition continues to this day. These surpluses will continue in SS untill 2010 but the Republicans have refused to consider arresting even the prospective borrowing/I think Clinton goes along.

Lets help the problem now and as Daschle and Gephardt have proposed stop using the present and future SS surplus to fund general revenues/ That is not its purpose. This will take a great burden off our "children" as will a very broad based tax to refund the borrowing which depleted the people's trust fund.

In sum, If people are living "too long" in 2010/ that wont be the real problem but rather that they didnt work long enough to continue to pay into SS and provide the govt the funds to pander to special interests. Hopefully the perpetrators and their friends will feel the rath for the theft at the ballot box. Again the French, British ( Blair apologized to the Irish for the potato famine today ) and Canadian elections are Heartening as things are moving in the right direction/I am actually beginning to feel a little optimism about things political and their trends.

(Tue Jun 03 1997 21:19)
NJ -- Just took a look, EBN appears to be down ( server that is ) . Perhaps there is hope yet? :~ ) )

(Tue Jun 03 1997 21:24)
@ Rx For Agreement
What I believe it needed to bring "enlightenment" to all is a $10-$20 rise in the price of gold.

(Tue Jun 03 1997 21:31)
WW & Panda et al: Whatever we believe about the theory, the fact is that no government programs are going to experience more than cosmetic changes until after the elections in 1998 and then only if the congress swings back to democratic control in both houses with large enough majorities to effect serious change and block fillibusters etc. That means that it will be late in 1999 and probably much later before the issues are addressed with the possibility of significant change. That is serious analysis. Now, rather than continue to argue over what ought to be, how about some analysis of what will be and how will it affect gold? the dollar? Oil? etc.

(Tue Jun 03 1997 21:44)
@Make My Day
It seems that gold just can't win no matter what.
I remember a rather obnoxious poster who kept saying
3-2-5 ( was it Long Gone? ) . I say gold don't get
there. I will back that up with a reasonable wager.
An ounce of gold to a favorite charity says we
don't get there by December 31, 97. Any sleepwalking

(Tue Jun 03 1997 21:50)
@the scene
George S. Cole -- You've been talking a lot about left and right econometrics lately and maybe I'm too far right of it all, but all I've seen over the past years is a burgeoning debt. May I ask 'what do you mean by what do you mean'? To me, it's all been leftist with maybe a very slight twist to slightly tighter monetary policy. But there has been no let up in the debt burden, only more of same. Should I assume that what you mean is that a REAL blowoff in inflation shall be at hand? I think I only require a 'clarification of terms' as you use them, as they teach in logic classes. Thanks.

(Tue Jun 03 1997 22:09)
@New England
Bernie: Thank you for your like mindedness. A broad based tax of 5 cents would cover even the cheaters and the underground economy. Targeting Corporate welfare is a great goal which will take alot of political courage on Congress. Of course if the guilty classes for the SS deficit could be specifically targeted this would be ideal.

Speed: I agree re privatiztion of SS if it could be done now. I no of know support for this in either party so the suggestion is impractical. My solution is looking at existing political realities and to provide the benefits to future retirees as they have/will earn them and that those who have benefited from papering over the deficit with SS and Medi Trust funds should repatriate the wealth that was used for their benefit. This is known as payin yer debts in colloquil terms.

When SS and Medi run out they will try to say it is because people are living longer. The reply will be that is why there was a surplus for 23 years to provide for the greater no. of workers/ and SS TAX Hikes to account for their greater longevity. Now Pardner lets figure out who really benefited from the heist and go git what is rightfully ours.

I cant wait to hear the pols on reducing SS it will be fun to see them squirm. France yesterday is preview US re SS. The party that hurts SS or Medi risks anihilation like the once dominant Conservative Party in Canada which is now a nothing party. I have hope for the future because of the examples of political courage we are starting to see worldwide.

(Tue Jun 03 1997 22:14)
WW: You asked me to demand what I paid for? How? By placing a tax burden on my children and grandchildren. I don't agree with that. The system is be actuarial sound ( i.e. CPI adjustments and the retirement age to get social security benefits raised ) . My children and grandchildren should not pay for anybody's retirement but their. Their money should be put in a fully privatized plan that they own and control. As far as the use of trust funds to balance the budget ... the budget should be balanced now by changes to medicare ( current recipient get 5 bucks of benefits for every dollar paid for Medi Part B, etc. ) , cut other waste ( Dept of Education, Corporate Welfare, Military spending on hardware that the Pentagon doesn't want ... that is corporate welfare also ) . A serious balance budget effort requires changes to Entitlements ( half of the budget ) and defense ( I guess about 15% ) . Both ... not just defense.

(Tue Jun 03 1997 22:16)

I too have been working away. The number one propellant for EMU in Germany is Kohl. The man wants to do some grand political thing, because he is a politician. If you go to a surgeon and you have a sore throat he wants to take out your tonsils. Politicians define themselves by the imprint they can leave upon history. Some don't really care what the imprint is as long as it is something. Most delude themselves into believing that their cause is just, regardless of the outcome. They are a scary lot.

Off to sleep. Many meetings tomorrow. Good night all.

(Tue Jun 03 1997 22:17)

it will be quite interesting to see how much asia needs the west after 15-20 years pass.

since you seem convinced that attorneys and more laws are the keys to saving the world, perhaps you would like to counter the conclusions made in the book "the death of common sense" by philip howard. even gore ( al, that is ) came to agree with its conclusions. here are some excerpts from the jacket:

"with the best of intentions, government hands out new legal rights like land grants, usually to victims of history or circumstance, but fails to notice that it then loses its ability to balance everyones welfare. the land of freedom has become a legal maze of obligation, ritual, and obeisance"

the chapter entitled "the buck never stops" is particularly entertaining.

i think mr. disney had it right years ago. the time has come to pursue appropriate arrangements.

hasta nunca.

(Tue Jun 03 1997 22:17)
WW: Yes or no questions for you.

Does the average ( earner ) retiree get back more than they contributed to Soc. Sec.?

Does the average retiree pay for the Medicare benefits in full?

(Tue Jun 03 1997 22:18)
Notice the German compromise is to defer the reevaluation to '98. SOOOO... the big objection is not to DOING it; it's to doing it NOW!!!! Do you think they ( BUBA ) might have an idea where the price of gold might be in 1998??? Sounds ultra-bullish to me ,in ( or before ) 1998!!!!!

ted butler
(Tue Jun 03 1997 22:18)
lease rates
JIN's post of 21:10 is the url for a yahoo biz story saying Pa lease rates are at 75% per annum for one month, with Plat at 40%. Such an absurd rate of interest ( particularly in our low interest environment ) should scream out that something is wrong. The only other loans that command such rates are illegal as far as I know. What these rates say to me is that there is something inherently wrong with metal loans as debt instruments. If you think it thru you would be hard pressed to economically justify the rationale of such a business. I know there are a lot of big names associated with the metal loan business and it looks real respectable, but at what point does it start looking real fishy - 75%? 100%? 1000%? And the real point is that while they may become suspect only when the rates start looking crazy, they are just as rotten when rates are "low", as is presently the case in gold and silver. And just to be clear - my only purpose in constantly harping on the metal loan business is to hopefully let those involved in it know that the game is ending, which I feel will be bad for them and good for most of the people here. G'nite.

(Tue Jun 03 1997 22:24)
@the scene
WW -- You have more chance of saving the 'Titanic' than you do Social Security, Medicare, or this debt based economy! Have Fun!

(Tue Jun 03 1997 22:33)
The fact of the contemporary death of common sense is something both liberals and conservatives can agree on.

(Tue Jun 03 1997 22:38)
@New England
EWP:I am apparently paying for other peoples parents and grand parents retirement now so why shouldnt their kids pay for me.

I agree with privatization but that has no political support. So lets stop raiding the trust funds and accumulate that money. Further the SS and Medi raid has benefited certain sectors/ let them make payback so that your children and mine dont bear the burden. Where is this wrong and how does it hurt the children. In fact it will help the children as the future geezers will have more money to be independent because they get back some of the money they paid into the systems.

You have to make the choice it is either the banks/corps/Investment banks who benefited and continue to benefit from the SS and Medi Trust fund raid ( partially by artificially low interest rates and bouyant financials ) or future retirees and the children. EWP make the choice! I know which
one will win and which one is just.

(Tue Jun 03 1997 22:39)
@New England
EWP:I am apparently paying for other peoples parents and grand parents retirement now so why shouldnt their kids pay for me.

I agree with privatization but that has no political support. So lets stop raiding the trust funds and accumulate that money. Further the SS and Medi raid has benefited certain sectors/ let them make payback so that your children and mine dont bear the burden. Where is this wrong and how does it hurt the children. In fact it will help the children as the future geezers will have more money to be independent because they get back some of the money they paid into the systems.

You have to make the choice it is either the banks/corps/Investment banks who benefited and continue to benefit from the SS and Medi Trust fund raid ( partially by artificially low interest rates and bouyant financials ) or future retirees and the children. EWP make the choice! I know which
one will win and which one is just.

(Tue Jun 03 1997 22:40)
NOTE: December '98 gold call optins ARE available now; and I think the June '98 calls are a bargain at current prices. Of course the delta will change, but, as price goes up a lot so will the calls, even with the time decay factored in. CHEROKEE said a brilliant thing a while back ( yes, he did ) He advocated buying a call or two each month even if that's all you could do ( right CHEROKEE? ) IT COULD MAKE YOU R--H!

(Tue Jun 03 1997 22:42)
D.A. Thanks you have given me a lot to ponder. I've got a 5AM so I'm off to golden dreams. Thanks all, much good dialogue here tonight!

(Tue Jun 03 1997 22:43)
Savage -- careful with those four letter words ( r*ch ) you might trigger the broken record player. :~ ) )

(Tue Jun 03 1997 22:51)
@the system
Mike -- When common sense within the system exists no more and all the paid ears there don't hear anymore, it's time to buy gold, food, bullets and beer! Lots of each! The asses will eventually be seen for what they are but only after the destruction has been done. In the mean time, there is a lot of 'CYA' to do.

Mike Sheller
(Tue Jun 03 1997 22:53)
A look at the weekly T-Bond shows a test of a minor short-term downtrend line at hand at the 111 mark. Penetration would be bullish for a run to 113. At 113 a more significant downtrend line comes into play. If that can be breached within a few weeks to a month , we would be into a significant bond rally, a decline in rates, and major consternation for the Fed. This would of course be bullish for stocks ( one more time ) . If a failure at 111 occurs, then we're into another leg down for bonds. Next few days will bear watching. Many observers are awaiting renewed signs of a tight economy and inflationary pressures. This kind of action would be a major surprise to many. The breaching of 113 would be a breakout from a significant price pattern and buy at least another three or four months for stocks. Bond traders might entertain initial longs IF price passes 111, with added positions at the breaking of 113.

(Tue Jun 03 1997 22:54)
ABN Gold up .45 and Silver up 3 cents...Detroit Red Army 4....Flyers 2...
three minutes to go...

(Tue Jun 03 1997 23:01)
I'm sure you are convinced of your convictions, but some of your statements on history are incorrect. As you know, SS was started by Democrats and in general resisted by Republicans. ** The bankruptcy of the system is due to those ( Democrats ) making new promises every few years to increase the payments to recipients without a serious regard for paying the bill. This was as easy as Clinton making his promises today... no integrity or personal remorse. ( Most of these increases were resisted by Republicans because the new payments were fiscally irresponsible ) After all, someone else would pay up later, and it kept them in power for years buying votes. I watched Jim Wright do it for years.

The increase in FICA withholding in 1983 was a bipartison bill supported by Reagan to prevent the system from going bankrupt by 1997. It worked. It has postponed the due date. To blame the problem on Reagan and Dole is truly stupid. ( nothing personal here, but your view is incorrect and is totally ideologically based, no matter how much you are convinced )

You never have addressed my previous post where I pointed out that the IOUs are still govt obligations and must by honored. The fund has not been raided. Your persistence to maintain that view is .....

When you deposit money into your checking account, do you think the bank keeps it. Your deposit is long gone by the end of the day. The bank loans it out.

For others... In order to privatize the system and provide SS eligible accounts with their share would require the feds to borrow ( or print ) over $500 billion in a short period of time. This is financially impossible without extreme disruption of the current situation, including soaring interest rates. Who do you seriously think in Congress will support this? Certainly not Clinton. To promote privatization is extreme willful thinking and totally unworkable. From an economic viewpoint, it is impossible.

(Tue Jun 03 1997 23:04)
@New England
Eldorado: I am not trying to save the system although if done properly it could be saved. Rather if and when it does blow up the blame rests squarely on the high flying purveyors of mkt leverage on WAll St/Bay St and Fleet st and their greedy corporate stk option buyout clients and compadres. The Wall St demanded stk option encouraged manic slash and burn for profit will come to an end and its leaders will be held up in the disrepute they so richly deserve. With our democratic system and rule of law a less greedy and money oriented society will develop. I believe within our context the blowup will be good for all, even the greedy,
and the country in the long run. The Govt and public service will experience rennaissance.

(Tue Jun 03 1997 23:15)
Freedom & Rights @ Canada's gun control
1997 Canada, gun control,
* The Declaration Of Independence---USofA July 04 1776 "

" It is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such government, and to provide new guards for their security -- Such has been the patient sufferance of these Colonies; and such is now the necessity which constrains them to alter their former systems of government. The history of the present King of Great Britain is a history of repeated injuries and usurpations, all having in direct object the establishment of an absolute tyranny over these States. To prove this, let facts be submitted to a candid world "

" He has refused his assent to laws, the most wholesome and necessary for the public good "

" He has combined with others to subject us to a jurisdiction foreign to our constitution, and unacknowledged by our laws; giving his assent to their acts of pretended legislation "

" For taking away our charter, abolishing our most valuable laws, and altering fundamentally the forms of our governments "

Check this out: RE, Gun Control Bill C-68, Canada, via, USofA actions.

Liberal M.P. Rex Crawford voted against Bill C-68 35 Liberal M.P's ducked the issue, 3 Liberal M.P.'s voted against Bill C-68.

Rex Crowford stated : " read the fine print and discover that this Bill will leave Canadians defenceless against arbitrary search and seizure by the Government" also " Essentially abandons the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms "

All such action against the Canadian people is being done for the financial interests of the most powerful, in the USofA, and the USofA has the * Declaration of Independence * !!

Canada, must be careful, in dealing with the USofA, it appears it is July 04 1776, issues are the same, only the players are different,

We Canadians, will need our Declaration of Independence from the USofA, and submit such " to a candid world. "

(Tue Jun 03 1997 23:17)
Readin the last few posts is better than a sleeping pill...Goodnight all. Too Tarnished!

(Tue Jun 03 1997 23:19)
nodding off
Larry: You are right. Help my memory, wasn't it LBJ who first moved SS off-budget to help mask the Vietnam war expenses? Privatization wouldn't require new money being printed. Several workable plans have been presented by the Cato Institute Abolishing the system and giving bonds to the current "participants" would just transfer bonds and be an accounting exercise. WW is correct when he says that it won't be done. Political will is the ultimate oxymoron.

Some English friends commented that the French election results are partly a reaction to the continuing growth of a fascist movement. There is a similar trend in Germany. Back tomorrow.

(Tue Jun 03 1997 23:23)
@Asking Sage Advice

Ted Butler: You have outlined the parameters
eloquently here as well as at Vronsky's site. Any
thoughts on a time frame?

(Tue Jun 03 1997 23:24)
@the scene
WW -- You do not place the blame squarely. A bit of reading of real history may help you in that regard. In-so-far as to whether a crash of the system would be cleansing, I'm sure it won't be particularly pleasant for the survivors. The dead, of course, won't mind at all. But all in all and well after the fact, perhaps humankind will have learned an important lesson. Perhaps they will also remember it for hundred years or so before they become stupid/complacent again! Perhaps they'll get REAL smart and figure out a totally different way to organize a system of compromise, while retaining real rights of the people!

(Tue Jun 03 1997 23:24)
@the scene
WW -- You do not place the blame squarely. A bit of reading of real history may help you in that regard. In-so-far as to whether a crash of the system would be cleansing, I'm sure it won't be particularly pleasant for the survivors. The dead, of course, won't mind at all. But all in all and well after the fact, perhaps humankind will have learned an important lesson. Perhaps they will also remember it for hundred years or so before they become stupid/complacent again! Perhaps they'll get REAL smart and figure out a totally different way to organize a system of compromise, while retaining real rights of the people!

(Tue Jun 03 1997 23:25)
@New England
LARRY: Glad you addressed the privatization issue. I hope others read your comments. It is impossible even if desireable. However, a broad based tax which was broad enough not to effect final demand and the economy might work. Offsetting any small deleterious effect of a broad based tax might be the confidenced gained by knowing the system works and that the funds will be available to provide for the benefits we baby boomers have paid for. Clintons 4 cent gas tax didnt kill the economy/ quite the contrary its deficit stabalizing influence contributed to the current "financial" boom. A broad based tax which doesnt effect demand which is connnoted as guaranteeing the viability of SS and Medi would be a tremendous positive. If you think this country can remain viable and stable without SS and Medi for baby boomers who have paid through the nose into the system you are very blind. Lets drop the stupid right wing rhetoric about personal responsibility when it comes to SS and MEDI as we are taking personal Responsibility by constantly paying into the system. If you propose no benefits then I propose a baby boomer strike on paying the taxes now. Lets see how the financial mkts take that. Fact is accomodations will have to be made. Broad based tax like Clinton gas tax which doesnt effect final demand is best vehicle.

(Tue Jun 03 1997 23:26)
@the scene
Huh? -- Mouse bounce!

(Tue Jun 03 1997 23:45)
WONDER @ Available time
WW : FYI Just a Notice, you have posted 13 times on June 03 1997
00:00 to 23:25. Are you working overtime, or are you on 3 days on, and 4 days off. Just interested, there has been talk, at this site, that agents operate from this site. It isn't possible that you are, is it???????

Heavy remarks about workers rights etc. reminds me of left wing agents, that operate within Unions, and yes, right wing agents also.

(Tue Jun 03 1997 23:46)
@New england
Eldo: good comments on my blame placing. I have personal experience with Wall St. et al and most brokers are pushed to tow the line by the big firms that would make Joseph Stalin blush. The little guys on Wall st are ok for the most part. The big and medium guys are very often so slimey they define slime/ they have absolutely no morals. I dont think it is their fault but rather the money driven culture to which they have been subjected. Nevertheless, these financial institutions very badly need ethics retraining. The legal profession through lawsuit threats is the only restraint as that threatens their almighty money temple.

(Tue Jun 03 1997 23:49)
@the system
WW -- I really don't understand why you need to have new taxes levied to support your causes! After all, you and your 'kind' are perfectly free to financially support any damn thing you want to. Just make sure it doesn't 'infect' us! So what's the problem? Why do you all want to 'drag' the rest of us into your ponzi scams? Are you all control freeks or something? Go plant a garden or something. Take a stress pill!

(Tue Jun 03 1997 23:55)
@the scene
WW -- Re: your 23:46. If you want to blame the worlds' ill on greed, I'm sure you'll have a lot of company! Perhaps a lot of THAT is due to a lot less moral teachings. You got a world wide cure for that too?

(Tue Jun 03 1997 23:55)
@New England
6pak : when I am not working I enjoy the debate here and thus respond to the many responses to my comments. This is especially easy given my ultra high speed govt provided computer here in the beautiful Washington, DC Suburb of Langley, Va.

(Tue Jun 03 1997 23:57)
@the scene
WW -- Perhaps a better handle for you would be 'beltway'. It fits!