Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

Kitco Inc. does not exercise any editorial control over the content of this discussion group and therefore does not necessarily endorse any statements that are made or assert the truthfulness or reliability of the information provided.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 00:01)
I'm so Ashamed: Judged by a sampling of the monographs available at that URL, if he can't cure it, he will talk it to death. Uncommonly common drivel from the narcissistically inclined. Issue of an inward focus. As in: "Here look at my 'inny' isn't it just wonderful". ....... But he is, after all, published. ...... Even more accomplished than I am at pumping up 2 cents worth of substance into 10 pounds of nothing.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 00:01)
Savage: I agree with you. Acknowledging the cat's presence encourages him, and I, who usually lurk, am guilty of this sin too. Back to the matter at hand.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 00:04)
Earl: Probably not something to be proud of. Good night all.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 00:11)
RJ ( 22:32 ) : Hybrids. Small IC engine to keep modest battery capacity at full charge. Short term accelleration is provided by the batteries. Engine operates at optimum efficiency. Best of all worlds for the forseeable future. Coulda shoulda been done 10 years ago. Instead the commuter continues to fire 8 cylinders when he really only needs 2.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 00:19)
If you truly want to restore a semblence of sanity to this forum then just email bart and encourage him to use his power, to curtail for a period of time, those who insist on fighting.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 00:33)
I can't believe that someone else is using my handle.
I'm the biggest of gold bulls and I've been increasing
my purchases as gold heads south. Now is the time
to accumulate the real store of wealth.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 00:57)
John. Do you really get a kick out of destroying a great forum.
This site was an interesting site full of comments and a mine of information. Now it is turning into a garbage heap. All to the thanks of you. You must enjoy and feel satisfied for what you have done otherwise you would have slowed up or ceased your attacks. Do you not realise that life will go on if you are not here. Therefore why do you persist? If not for the satisfaction of creating disharmony. BEGONE!!!

Go and read Kahil Gilbran
"Avoid loud and agressive people for they are vexations to the spirit"
You are of the above and should be removed before no one comes here to discuss what they come here for.
You have been kicked off other sites for what you now do here.
Obviously it is an EGO TRIP and you enjoy it. But why do it at all?
People like you help to make this world we live in a worse place to be.
I would really hate to be like you, to know you or even to be in a room with you. Especially with your bent ego. You are a destroyer and no more.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 00:59)
I agree with your lst post. A small IC motor [diesel] tweaked to run at one speed and produce the 8-10 hp. needed to get most cars down the road will actually yield about 75 mpg. This motor will charge the battery pack needed for acceleration etc. However a fuel cell using platinum may well do the same job and of course benefit all of us.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 01:02)
Meanwhile ...
For those still interested in discussing the gold market, Bart's chart just showed gold ticking up $1.80. Not sure, but this looks like our friends in India checking in.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 01:03)

Mary-Rose: Don't let it get to you. I remember; as a teen-age kid, i said that gold would go to $105, it was just before the time that Nixon made it legal ( Can you imagine the term __making it legal?; sounds like a habit forming drug. ) .
Everyone said that I was nuts. After the price went many times higher, even I thought that.
I've done fairly well since.
Never get out at a bottom, especially in gold mining shares with production.
Remember gold and gold shares are capable of great leaps.
The non-gold stock markets are a bit high to go into.
For your own portfolio, go over the companies closely; if after that you still like them - hold on.
Also pay attention only to the posts you like and if I may suggest, those of Viesserie ( sorry for the spelling error ) , Eldorado, Arden, Panda, WW and all of the guro's.
For good honest laughs - check out Bernatz de Ventedorm.
Remember, though make up your own mind.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 01:10)
I forgot Earl

Mary-Rose: but he's to busy trying to keep the place honest.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 01:20)
Electric Fuel

Check out ( EFCX ) Electic fuel Corp., whose Zinc-Air batteries are said to have propelled good sized vehicles over 400 kilometers at about 45kph. They have a unique reloading system adoptable to fleet type use. Many EU lands are looking into their technology. Best to get their press releases on Yahoo and then call.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 02:32)

DA: First class post at ( 19:25 on 7/23 )
It says an awful lot.
I've always liked the grey metal and watched its movements and have a question.
Why do the base metals, many times with inventories available ( zinc was formerly an exception ) go up, while the PM's with huge deficits, go down?
I know gold has possible CB sales hanging over it, but most would be -or are- nuts to sell, while silver is a vastly different story.
My feeling is that someone is working against them, especially gold, with all the negative press.
I don't want a Soros to make it move, as he is just as soon to short it.

bb fisher
(Thu Jul 24 1997 03:25)
push me@pull you
these ideas must be viewed with good charts to fully appreciate the point.

the gold market unlike the general share market offers the buyer or seller 2 rather than just 1 points of reference with which to guage a bottom or a top.
experience has shown me that gold shares invariably bottom before the bullion its itself. true the shares may form a series of bottoms culminating with the final bottom simultaneous to bullion but this is misleading.

take homestake mining for example: during 1996 it ran up to 20 a share and topped out in late may 1996. the month of june and part of july saw the brunt of the % decline. the important fact to note and this is the tip off. invaraibly when a decline commences some shares in a group will have their values slashed meat ax style whilst others will hold up a while so as not to destroy the index averages all at once but rather water torture style. so in 1996 we had companies like homestake complete their decline ( for all practical purposes ) by october 1996 when it touched 13.5 a share. whilst barrick and newmont and placer continued eroding slowly letting the air out of the gold share average tire.

my point is this, when homestake reached 13.5 in october 96 gold bullion was still in the 370's. homestake is unhedged ergo the decline in gold bullion since should have badly deflated homstake further.. yet it did not. homestake to day is virtually where it was in october 1996 with a brief trip a point lower to the 12.5 area.

the dual nature of this gold share/gold bullion market offers us the opportunity to recheck our assumptions from 2 rather than one vantage points.

clearly homestake reahced wholesale levels in october 1996. barick did not till february at 21 and change. the fact that a major mining company like homestake has been bouncing around essentially marking time waiting for bullion to finish up before the next rally comences.

in the silver arena take a look at the chart of hecla mines. this company has been around since the 19th century spewing out silver from the same stand in idaho. in late 95 they announced that their newest mine contained only a fraction of the gold they expected ( how did that happen? ) . the share price collapsed from 13+ to 6 plus in 2 weeks on ENORMOUS volume. in the intervening 2 years the share has bounced around but has never gone lower than 5 a share even though both gold and silver have been decimated in the same period.

are these 2 situations mere anomalies. no indeed there are many other examples of exactly the same behavior. obviously the xau and other averages have been pummeled since. this reality is the work of only a few of their components. the exact same thing happens in the general market only in reverse when a few dow components or a few s&p 500 components constitute the bulk of the rallying or declining force in the averages.

a smokescreen to persuade the investor to look the other way, away from the action to a diversion. much as a magician makes his audience do.

it has been my experience that once a share reaches a point in price where huge volume comes in on the down or upside the price from that point on is severely proscribed unless the issue is in a special situation or constitues a VITAL component of an average in which case its lattitude for future movement is more relaxed. you will note that only the largest cap stocks make up this situatiion. this is necessary if massive accumulations and or short positions are to be obtained without hampering the normal float in the trading. find a smaller cap share and one that is not a critical component of an average and massive down or upside volume invariably caps or halts the move. if the essence of the company is sound all that remains is to wait for the inevitable decline or rally to follow.

i think homestake is a giveaway at these levels as is hecla.

bullions decline has been severe for futures traders to be sure. however if you bought homestake last fall at 14 or hecla at 6+- has this big drop in bullion made a major dent in your portfolio. clearly no. so either these 2 shares are going to decline much more sometime in the future if bullion declines further or bullion is going to rally which the absence of downside volatility in these 2 among many other shares has foretold. the longer they remain range bound the more likely that resolution will be to the upside.

when the trader/investor buys options rather than writes them he/she forecloses all the benfits of time and patience. the same happens with margin. the clock ticks and churning as homestake and hecla have done these past year or so works against the trader/investor and interrupts the balance in their pysche because of that constant tick tick of the interest clock or the imminent expiration of the option.

the choice is yours.

bb fisher
(Thu Jul 24 1997 03:38)
i for@one
if this amazing internet that all allows us to communicate in real time from the far corners of the globe allows just one individual to satisfy there need for attention, allow them to spew out their frustration, anger, hostility and guilt rather buying an automatic weapon and wiping out a post office or a fast food reastaraunt or playing God in clock tower, humanity has surely made progress and we are all better off in the long run.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 03:43)
@look before you LEAP

bb fisher: Thanks for the continued thought provoking posts. I expect that will stimulate some discussion. Anyone have any thoughts on Homestake LEAPs? They have some that expire in Jan. 99.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 03:57)

A follow up to bb fisher's post on gold stocks. You can adapt this to any U.S. stock in the time frame of your choice. Check it out!,17

bb fisher
(Thu Jul 24 1997 04:11)
can anyone interpet the technical formation on this chart. i seem to remember it has signifciance but i can not remeber what it is. the chart is the dow jones spot commodity index

(Thu Jul 24 1997 04:38)
RJ--Thanks for the info on fuel cells. It is truely a breath of fresh air to come across posts like yours for the edification of precious metal analysts.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 04:38)
EBN Gold down 1.55 and Silver down three cents...What a beautiful sunrise and a great day to be ALIVE...Am up early in preparation for kayak to Scaterie Island ( 8 miles ) and a little gold hunting....Scaterie Island now deserted was one referred to as "infamous Scaterie Island" for the number of ship wrecks off its rocky coast...the most Eastern point of Nova Scotia....To this day old coins are found on its infrequent sandy beaches

(Thu Jul 24 1997 04:43)
Mornin Ted--Good luck on your expidition. Hopefully the early goldbug catches the pieces of eight.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 04:51)
And a great mornin to you Geff!...The closest point of Scaterie Island is eight miles away and the most distant point is approx. 12 miles away ( East Point ) and it's so clear you can see the roof-line of the deserted house at East Point...kind of makes the juvenile drivel that has evolved on this site....INSIGNIFICANT....

(Thu Jul 24 1997 05:01)
Bart:You are in the process of losing what was ONCE a great site...To Scaterie Island and oh by the way....EBN GOLD DOWN 1.65...

(Thu Jul 24 1997 05:14)
On Sunday I predicted gold south of 320 by Friday. Lets hope ( I hate that word ) we get there today and rebound. This is the 4th down day in a row so a bounce may be coming soon. However, if we break 319 then retest low likely. Scary that we coming down into friday, which is a signature dayfor Wall St in the money flow game, as we know what friday usually means for gold. Last fridays rally was probably allowed so they could do a number on it while Greenspan was speaking. The latter point was my reason for predicting the down move ie a show of confidence. On a positive note gold appears to be moving inversely to the bubble stk mkt/ this has to be good at some point. last thurs and fri gold/up and mkt tanks and Mon thru wed gold down and mkt up. If the dow is ready to fizzle may be this down in gold will just be a correction. Given the extremely bullish commitment of traders this weakness in the PMs is truly amazing. However, given last friday's mkt reaction to a two day spike in gold I am sure there has been some Wall St selling in the gold paper mkt. We will certainly see/ maybe a reversal today after a fibonacci retracement of the first rebound in gold.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 05:22)

Jeez o Pete! EBN has the DAX ( Germany's stock market ) up ANOTHER 3.9% this A.M. What in the H-E-double-hockey-sticks is going on in Europe? Anyone got a chart of that? It's got to be parabolic at this point.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 05:32)
BB Fisher: James Dines used to ( still does? ) refer to that formation in your Dow Jones Commodity Index chart as a megaphone top. Edwards and Magee ( Technical Analysis of Stock Trends ) call it a broadening top. This particular one also fits into the broadening top sub category called the five point reversal, where each of 3 successive tops is higher and each of 2 successive interspersed lows is lower. Welles Wilder, of DMI and parabolic SAR fame, called it the Reverse Point Wave ( RPW ) and charged about $100 for a trading system using it in the late 1970's/ early 1980's ( before he went big time with Delta stuff and other big ticket items ) . All of these famous folk considered it a reversal pattern, whether at highs or lows. My own experience is that it is a reversal pattern about 50% of the time and that moves out of one of these "reverse triangles" in either direction are not nearly so dramatic as the pattern itself would lead one to expect. But I sense that you wanted to direct our attention to commodity prices in general?

(Thu Jul 24 1997 05:39)

er, heh heh, my mistake. The DAX figure was from 7-23. EBN has not updated it for today. ( never mind )

bb fisher
(Thu Jul 24 1997 05:48)
homestake chart for all

my we're up early! : )

see chart below: my graphic sense is improving : )

it must appreciated that unless and until homestake mining penetrates the dark red downtrend line from the 94 highs all you should expect is a countertrend rally in a bear market. agreed, from here and even from 14 a rally to the 17-18.5 level offers lovely per cent profit.. but it is still a bear market rally.

if 19 is NOT broken decisively on the upcoming rally likely to commence
well before official end of summer sell the rally and await another downleg lasting well into late 98 or early 99 at or near the lower/lowest? jagged trendlines.

we all may not like this potential but charts don't lie. from this juncture option buying, i think, is high risk for little reward unless your timing is spot on and you elect to go after the shortest term calls with lowest intrinsic value that fit within the trendlines drawn and time frame implied. a fools wager in my opinion.

you've been warned.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 05:51)

(Thu Jul 24 1997 06:07)
BB Fisher: After I read your essay on the psychotherapeutic value of chatting, I decided to chat 25 hours per day non-stop... ( 8^ ) ///Ya, I got a ####load of old Homestake. On a trip through the Black Hills a few years back I made a pilgrimage to that oldie goldie. If you put $100,000 into it and it sits on its chair for three years, you have only lost about $15,000 in opportunity cost, and according to the Feds only about $6000 more in inflation cost. Thus Homie only has to go up 27% from that point to get you even. I agree that this outperforms most options strategies. Of course you could have been selling options on it all along, unless you bought it with the idea that it might go up someday. Nah. No one buys gold stocks with the idea of capital gains.

the wizard
(Thu Jul 24 1997 06:22)
@ oz
Thanks for the Homestake chart.
HM will be above $24/sh. nlt than the first quarter of '98.

Mike Sheller
(Thu Jul 24 1997 06:37)
BART: For what it's worth, I just spent an hour scrolling through the wreckage of a wonderful site gone sour. Not because goldbugs were right, or wrong, but because someone doesn't know how to play well with others in the same sandbox. While I readily accept that the ups and downs of Kitco should reflect the fluctuations of everyday life ( some days are good, some are bad ) and that there is also a place for "the inane details" of our lives we all share, I suspect things have veered off in a direction that effaces the general dignity and lustre of this forum. The disruptive force in question himself once wrote, quite brilliantly, "Today's real men keep the flowers and send the bill." Judging from his considerable talents, I suspect he has been keeping the flowers and sending US the bill. I for one would rather have the flowers, and I certainly won't pay the bill. Whether or not this is a true case of sickness, or can be easily controlled, and thus is simple vindictiveness, matters not. It is like visiting a good friend's house who has an animal that shits and pisses all over the floor. After a while, you don't want to go there any more. Even when you avoid stepping in it, you can't get away from the stink. It's YOUR house Bart. It was once a very inviting and proud structure. I am trusting you to know when to pull the trigger, man.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 06:53)
Still a Kitcoite

FWIW: Being mostly libertarian, this goes against my grain, but I agree that the person in question has abused the privileges here and definitely violated net etiquette. Such behavior would not be tolerated in a real life gathering. I side with Mike Sheller, Ted and others on this question.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 06:55)
BB Fisher: Of course the most astounding feature of your Dow Jones Spot Commodity chart, and which I assumed was the one you were testing us all on, is the fact that it has THIS YEAR made a double top ( well.....almost ) with its 1980 top while the futures indices ( CRB futures for instance ) remain far below their own 1980 peaks ( 337.60 vs 236 for the CRB ) .
This speaks to the point that D.A. was hinting at yesterday. Namely that we HAVE inflation, but the markets have become convinced that we DON'T due to constant jawboning by the ruling elite that all is well. Therefore inflation premia have been bled from the system even as inflation continues.
A question begging for an answer is whether this state of affairs implies that all the big boys are totally hedged in derivatives or are merely relying on the big lie--ooops, I mean the massaging of public opinion-- to do their work.
One of the best ways to play this might be to lay on lightly margined far distant futures positions,for example the June 2002 Comex gold contract which recently opened for business. Apparently someone else has the same idea as the volume and open interest for this contract is not bad for so early in its infancy. Anyway, one could do this also with crude, copper, wheat, etc. For those who have given up on picking just the right gold stock for fear of getting yet another turkey, this might be an attractive alternative and with as much or as little leverage as one wishes.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 07:08)
Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )

Attention all Martians, the above URL is NEW.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 07:14)
Well, I finally got my Tele Charts back up and running. It seems as though Worden brothers had some kind of error in the data that they sent everbody. Either that, or it was,... a date problem? ( Y2K, Oh no! )

Check the Reuters site here; There are a few stories on the South African mines apparently merging and one that had a rockburst that resulted in death ( s ) . Vaal Reefs is consolidating, it looks like. Things are shifting. There's a story there from Anglo about how the huge short position, IN AMERICA, is what is depressing the price of gold. Strange times indeed.

TED -- Have fun on your trip to the 'island'.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 07:19)
Aurophile, BJ Fisher: I am happen to be passing by this morning, and noticed your posts on commodities and inflation and would appreciate your views on the following observance. The metal equties, particularly copper and Aluminum, are doing well, the cyclicals paper, autos, steel etc., have come to life, and oil and oil service stocks are still doing well - despite diverging respective commodity prices. Now this can be attributed to a lift from the overall market, but in my experience in would more likely be due to higher commodity prices ahead on which these particular stocks depend for performance. Not unlike BJs views on HM and bullion.

In addition, the embullient US and European stock markets would suggest stong economic growth in the months ahead, which ties in with the US cyclicals. And the strong dollar of course has inflationary consequences for those currencies which are lowered by it. Therefore, the logical consequence of the above is that prices for at least industrial commodities are more likely to increase than decrease in the US as well as Globally.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 07:27)
A Possible Summer Rally
BJ FISHER: Your comment that the advantage gold stocks have is the number of ways of determining peformance, particularly in measuring the performance of the stocks relative to bullion, is the principal reason I am attracted to investing in them. And although there is certainly no assurance that it will occur, in observing this measurement, at least as of the close yesterday, I am in accord with your view that a summer rally is probable.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 07:33)
the morning poll
My last post was several days ago. This forum is being tagged by a vandal. For this mornings reflection, I submit the following from the book of Proverbs:
"Do not answer a fool according to his folly lest you be like him."
"Answer a fool according as his folly deserves lest he be wise in his own eyes." ( kick him out )
"A bridle for the horse, a whip for the ass and a rod for the backs of fools." It is well within the bounds of wisdom to apply the rod, Bart.

Mike Sheller: That's better than tossing an empty beer bottle, I think.

Schippi: The FSAGX charts are helpful, thanks.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 07:37)
Templeton Fund
Templeton president, Mark Holowesko, is quoted in today's Toronto Star
"while we are not yet at the financial-bubble stage, we are not far from it. Financial bubbles eventually become unsustainable, and of the most disturbing signs is when a huge level of debt is supporting prices"
He points to some worrying facts in the United States.
1. American households currently have more money invested in stocks than equity in homes.
2. Common stocks represent a greater portion of the net worth of U.S. households than ever before.
3. Margin loans to buy stocks are valued at 2% of the value of U.S. economic production, a higher level than has ever been seen.
He also disturbed by a blind,"flight to quality" in the US stock market. "People think they are not taking a risk, becuse they're investing in so-called quality stocks, but these stocks are incredibly risky at these prices.
Templeton organization has dramatically reduced its holdings in North America. The percentage of U.S. assets has dropped to about 22% from 55% three years ago, and he's still reducing that proportion.
For the record Templeton is having a conference meeting today, which is the largest annual meeting ever held in North America. The $8 billion Templeton Growth Fund, is the largest mutual fund in Canada , has achieved a 15.5% average annual compound growth rate since its introduction in 1954.
Templeton funds, for example made great returns in the Japanese market in the 1980's but sold all Japanese stocks, a few years bedore the market peaked in 1989.
"Our first rule of thumb is not to lose money" Holowesko says.
First Soros, now Templeton's . Is anybody listening?
Buy gold!

(Thu Jul 24 1997 07:41)

Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 06:37
Mike Sheller ( @Bart ) :
BART: For what it's worth......
Mike I'm with you 100%

(Thu Jul 24 1997 07:45)
Vieserre: I believe your analysis of commodity prices is correct. Also from a simple-minded technical perspective, the CRB Index ( futures ) has corrected ~ 50% of its 1993/96 gain in about 15 months, which is about 40% of the time it took to go up.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 07:45)
Food for thought.....
Thai government defaults on rubber purchase.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 07:46)
Mike's 06:57
BART....BART...I agree with mike Sheller's's time to act!!

(Thu Jul 24 1997 07:49)
Anglo sees firmer gold in due course.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 07:50)
Vieserre: I believe your analysis of commodity prices is correct. Also from a simple-minded technical perspective, the CRB Index ( futures ) has corrected ~ 50% of its 1993/96 gain in about 15 months, which is about 40% of the time it took to go up.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 07:50)
South Africa's woes
The CB's "meddling" in gold prices, to these depressed levels, may prove to be staggering to South Africa's and Australia's unemployment woes. I guess they're the "sacrificial lambs" to keep the bubble going?

(Thu Jul 24 1997 07:54)
South African mines consolidating?

It isn't over yet in Thailand.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 07:56)
Is the Market Efficient
Aurophile: Under a most elementary analysis, it is illogical to have ie steel, aluminum and autos stocks rising in unison unless each can generate greater profits and this would seem to predict greater prices, greater productivity notwithstanding, unless of course the market is merely raising the PEs on these stocks regardless of performance, or the market is wrong.

Mike Sheller
(Thu Jul 24 1997 08:03)
SPEED: Amen, Borother. AUROPHILE: Amen, Brother. The strategy you outlined for long deferred gold contracts may turn out to be the most brilliant play. My astrological work indicates a crisis year in 2000, and a monster year for silver in 2003, based on all the historical correlations I've been able to whip together. Thus, can gold be far behind? And whether I turn out to be in error is beside the point. What with current softness, and what I see as final weakness in gold coming this fall/winter ( may or may not be at lower prices ) , the turn of the year should be a very compelling time to assess enlarging share positions and taking on far-out futures. It may be academic to point out ( and rightfully bizarre under the circumstances ) but a true gold pedigree like Placer Dome ( which has a BEAUTIFUL, regal, prosperous horoscope by the way ) is still in a bull market from its lows of the mid 1980's. It seems to have completed a fourth wave, which might indicate a rally ahead for gold, a reaction to test these lows, perhaps a bit above them, and then the final base put in. This base will apply to all gold shares and the bullion. I would be more confident if gold could get back above 340. If it comes up and tests 340 and reverses, I would be concerned. If it made new lows from here, I would have to rethink the whole structure I see forming.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 08:03)
Vieserre: The market is efficiently manic. But when is it sufficiently manic?

(Thu Jul 24 1997 08:05)
Jobless claims at 8:30 A.M. Today.

M2 money supply at 4:30 P.M. Today.

For Friday, Durable goods and existing homes sales.....

(Thu Jul 24 1997 08:08)

Panda-Thanks for the news items. It would be interesting to find out how investor demand for gold in Thailand has been affected by the currency situation there.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 08:08)
currency woes
Two articles reported in today's Bloomberg News..
Southeast Asian Currencies Fall for 2nd Day as Baht Declines

Southeast Asian currencies fell for a second day, on concern that they may be attacked amid problems at Thailand's banks. The
baht fell to about 32.2 per U.S. dollar, from 31.6 yesterday. Thailand's banks and finance companies face mounting bad loans as
the country experiences its slowest economic growth in a decade. Among Southeast Asian currencies, the Indonesian rupiah fell
as much as 1.4 percent, to 2,625 per U.S. dollar. It was recently traded at 2,605 per dollar, paring some of its losses, as investors
worry that the Indonesian central bank may intervene in the market to prop up the rupiah, Chandra of Bank Tiara said.

Korea to Deposit 1.5 Trillion Won With Banks, Merchant Banks

South Korea's Ministry of Finance & Economy said the government will deposit 1.5 trillion won ( $1.68 billion ) with banks and
merchant banks for 15 days, starting Monday, to ease a cash crunch. Creditor banks and merchant banks of Kia Group decided
last week to freeze its $10 billion of debt to prevent bankruptcy. The government said 1 trillion won will go to 32 banks and the
remaining 500 billion won to merchant banks. It's the first time in 15 years that the government has taken action to ease tight
liquidity at merchant banks.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 08:10)
Mike Sheller: Gracias amigo. Regrettably Bill Meridian doesn't have the PDG chart in his book. Or Barrick.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 08:11)
After the Voting is Over
AUROPHILE: I gather that is the question, after this voting is over with, where will the market value these stocks and other stocks - not unlike the casino, bio-tech and other earlier rushes.

Mike Sheller
(Thu Jul 24 1997 08:11)
AUROPHILE: That is not simple minded - it is basic, and sound. A 50% CRB correction , in such a shorter relative time frame vis a vis the advance, indicates a case that there is more to come on the upside. That's why rapid rallies from these gold declines scare me.They are invariably corrections against the trend. I much prefer to see those gently rising staircase bases being formed. The ones that eventually arc into climb the wall rallies.

Mike Sheller
(Thu Jul 24 1997 08:16)
AUROPHILE: If you want PDG's 'scope, I'll run one out of the computer for you. Just e me an address where I can mail it. If you act now, I'll throw in a FREE analysis I did on PDG at The Astrological Investor a year ago. But hurry, supplies are limited. My email address above.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 08:19)
Foreign Debt
A sign of what happens when the bubble bursts
Somprasong first
to default on debts

(Thu Jul 24 1997 08:20)
Auric, nomercy -- In FWIW column, on the Nightly Business Report last night, Joe Battapaglia ( sp? ) , said that the stock bull could go on for several more years. He said that the '87 crash had elements that are not present today. Among them; The Dollar was in crisis with the DM. Long Bonds had risen 250 basis points during the year. He said not to fear. There is no currency crisis, and interest rates are going down.

Hello, JOE! All that we would need, is for this currency problem to spill a little further west, via Japan perhaps? Interest rates? I wonder, just how fast could those bonds be sold??? How fast could those rates move, and does the average Mutual Fund investor even know what a foreign currency is? These are 'interesting' questions. I'm just pointing out the risk here. I might add, it is a risk that most are totally unaware of...

(Thu Jul 24 1997 08:24)
Kitco Vandalism and grafitti on the walls
Mr. Bart Kitner:
I believe that the time has come, when you will need to do something about this "hep-cat" character that is constantly vandalizing your venerable sight. It is not that I wish to give you suggestions about how to handle your own house, but the quality of your sight is de-generating by the day, and there ARE an awful lot of responsable rational people that invest a considerable amount of time in this site, even though they don't post. As the ONLY person that can rectify this problem, you should consider cutting your losses and taking action, before it's too late.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 08:27)
Predicting Gold
PANDA: In any point in time or price of a market, there will always be those who will predict it will go higher and those who will predict it will go lower - that is, of course, with the exception of predicting a higher price for gold : )

(Thu Jul 24 1997 08:27)
@high cost mines??? Don't be so sure...
Interesting story on Anglo, labor costs, and a goal of $250/ounce gold production.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 08:30)
PANDA: That Asia currency stuff is very serious business. Korea is a basket case and when the first domino goes/,//////you know the rest. It takes a few days for the second domino news to get out so stay alert. It will not be confined to Asia.

On M2 money supply at 4:30 this afternoon. This reading used to be important to me but it is flawed in recent years due to the amount of currency circulating overseas. That number is at least $233 Billion. It could be over $300 Billion. I have been stymied on how to read M2 and the Monetary Base lately. I will be out all morning. Check in this PM.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 08:30)
Vieserre -- :- ) ) :- ) )

Slave duty calls...... BBL.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 08:33)
The price of an overvalued currency
An article from today's "The Times" UK,
Sterling at eight-year high as windfall cash reaches the high


Shopping boom threat set to
put rates at 7%

THE City is braced for another interest rate rise after retail
sales data pointed to a 1980s-style high steet spending boom.

High street sales increased by an annual rate of 5.4 per cent in
June as windfall related spending boosted sales of big ticket

Market speculation that rates will rise to 7 per cent next month
sent the pound soaring on foreign exchanges. The pound
climbed to DM3.0878  its highest level since September 1989
 before slipping in late trade to close up three pfennigs on the
day at DM3.0712. Sterling's trade weighted index also touched
an eight-year high of 106.7, before falling slightly to close up
0.9 on the day at 106.6.

The stock market continued its rebound as Wall Street climbed
higher following Alan Greenspan's positive comments on
Tuesday. The FTSE 100 jumped 85 points in early trading but
finished just 27.8 higher at 4,824.5

New evidence that the high level of the pound is beginning to
seriously hurt exporters emerged in the latest British Chambers
of Commerce quarterly survey that showed export orders
slumping to a five-year low.

Economists said the new data coupled with the latest rise in the
pound would heighten the "policy dilemma" faced by the Bank
of England over further interest rate rises.

But Eddie George, Governor of the Bank of England,
yesterday told the Treasury Select Committee that he viewed
some of the rise in the pound as "irrational and erratic". Mr
George insisted that the pound's current strength is as much
connected to political developments surrounding EMU as with
the expectation of further interest rate rises.

Mr George said: "The economic cycle explains part of the
reason for the strength but it is mostly associated with
developements in Europe."

The Governor also admitted that the Bank is uncertain as to
the likely impact of windfall payments. But Mr George rejected
the charge of Quentin Davies, Tory MP for Grantham and
Stamford, that the Government should have taken account of
the payouts by raising taxation, insisting the Budget had gone
"a long way in the right direction".

Economists said that with the quarterly average growth in high
street sales now showing an annual rate of 5.3 per cent  the
highest figure since December 1988  there is a danger that
sales growth could accelerate further. Adam Cole, UK
economist at James Capel, gave warning that there is much
more to come in terms of windfall spending and sales growth is
also strong in other sectors such as clothing and footwear.

Andrew Cates, UK economist at UBS, said: "With sterling's
strength doing much to dampen both domestic cost pressures
and export demand, further increases in base rates are not
warranted and would risk a hard landing for the economy next

The separate British Chambers of Commerce study of more
than 9,000 companies showed export prospects dropping
rapidly, with a net balance of 10 per cent of manufacturers
reporting that their forward orders for exports over the next
three months are falling  the lowest figure since 1992. But
manufacturers' domestic sales and orders are broadly stable.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 08:35)
It was 1946 and my father had taken me along on a trip to the Wind River
country in Wyoming. Three of us sitting in a small restaurant, the third
member was a local, a long time friend of Dad's. During the meal, an
Indian walked in the door, the pockets of his blue denim bibs bulging
like they were filled with baloons. After he walked by, Dad's friend
commented that it was payday on the reservation. He further explained
that the tribe's oil royalties were paid in silver dollars, and it was
silver jingling in those bulging pockets. Must be a little gambling
going on in the back room, was the next comment. Like that Indian many
years ago, I enjoy a little gambling with silver and gold. If I lose,
as may have happened to the Indian, NOBODY TWISTED MY ARM.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 08:37)
Now THIS is the Kitco we know and love

Nomercy @ 08:19--I'm not sure, but I could have sworn I heard a distinct "pop".

(Thu Jul 24 1997 08:43)
New channel : THE TRENCHS!! Any thing goes except heavy breathing!!

(Thu Jul 24 1997 08:45)
Jobless claims down

(Thu Jul 24 1997 08:50)
LELAND: I spent a lot of time in New Mexico in 1948-1949. I had never been there before and what struck me most were Silver Dollars and Model A Fords. That was all they used.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 08:55)
Thursday July 24 4:27 AM EDT

Anglo sees firmer gold in due course

JOHANNESBURG, July 24 ( Reuter ) - Anglo American Corp of South Africa Ltd
said on Thursday it expected the gold
price to firm when speculative short positions in the United States are
squared in due course.

``Since the overwhelming source of the short position lies in the
American market which has a limited time horison in trades of
this sort, we can reasonably expect some relief from the weight over the
market as the speculative shorts are squared in due
course,'' Anglo gold division, Anglogold, marketing director Kelvin
Williams said.

Williams said at a presentation of Anglogold June quarter results that
the group expected the depressed gold price to return to
an equilibrium underpinned by firm physical offtake.

He said gold producers should pay more attention to physical offtake
rather than be spooked by Central Bank selloffs of gold

``The fundamentals of supply and demand continue to grow increasingly
favourable for the metal and the relative influence of
individual elements in the mix of supply and demand shows a very
different picture from that painted by journalists and
analysts,'' he added.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 08:56)
Donald: We're poorer now. Credit cards and Ford F150's.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 09:03)
Morgan Stanley
Economist David Greenlaw, says markets misinterpreted Greenspan
US: What's the "Taylor Rule" Saying These Days?

Round two of Fed Chairman Greenspan's Humphrey-Hawkins testimony -- this time in front of the
Senate -- was largely a nonevent for the financial markets. It's clear that Greenspan was not inclined to
go out of his way to put a new spin on his message even though in our view the markets may have
misinterpreted the tea leaves from the Fed.

There was, however, one particularly interesting exchange between Greenspan and Paul Sarbanes ( D,
MD ) . The Senator held up a chart which depicted the recent history of the real federal funds rate ( fed
funds adjusted for inflation ) and noted that the measure has been ticking up of late. Indeed, since the
beginning of this year the real funds rate has risen nearly 100 basis points -- reflecting the 25 bp
tightening triggered by the Fed in March and the 3/4 percentage point deceleration in year/year CPI.
While one could certainly quibble about whether headline or core CPI is the valid input to the real funds
rate gauge over the short run, Greenspan chose another route in his response. The Fed Chairman pointed
out that he was well aware that the funds rate had drifted somewhat higher during the recent
disinflationary environment and opined that "the Fed implicitly conducts monetary policy every day not
just when we change the target nominal federal funds rate." Greenspan's response implies that the
recent rise in the real funds rate may be part of a conscious effort by policymakers to implement a
tighter policy. But what might this mean going forward? Even the FOMC's own forecast calls for about
a 1/2 point acceleration in the CPI during 1998 as the favorable effect of the drop in energy prices
dissipates. This would result in a corresponding decline in the real funds rate unless the Fed were to
explicitly hike rates.

All this, of course, assumes that there is an appropriate equilibrium federal funds rate for the economy at
any point in time. A construct aimed at measuring that value which has gained some noticed in recent
years is the "Taylor Rule." For the uninitiated, a bit of background might be appropriate. The "Taylor
Rule" first appeared in a paper entitled "Discretion Versus Policy Rules in Practice" published in a
Carnegie-Rochester series on public policy in 1993. The paper is by John Taylor of Stanford who was a
member of the Council of Economic Advisors during the Bush administration.

The Taylor Rule is given by the following relationship:

r = p + 0.5 y + 0.5 ( p - 2 ) + 2


r is the federal funds rate, p is the rate of inflation over the previous four quarters, and y is the percent
deviation of real GDP from potential.

Basically, the relationship says that the Fed should adjust the real funds rate above or below the
presumed "neutral" rate of 2% according to two factors. First, where the economy is relative to potential
output. Second, where inflation is running relative to a 2% target rate.

What does the rule imply at present? Interestingly, using a 2.5% inflation rate and a -1.5% GDP gap ( as
calculated recently by Steve Roach ) , the Taylor rule suggests that the nominal funds rate should
currently be pegged at precisely 5 1/2%. Hey! Not too bad. However, one reason why we have never
bought into the Taylor gauge hook, line and sinker is that it implies that if the economy is operating at full
potential ( i.e., a zero GDP gap ) and inflation is at its targeted level of 2%, then monetary policy should be
neutral with the funds rate held at 4%. My reading of history is that the upside risks to inflation are much
more severe than the downside risks when the economy is operating at full employment. As a result, a
neutral Fed policy may be too easy at such a stage in the business cycle.

Obviously, if the economy continues to expand in excess of its potential ( or trend ) rate of growth, as we
deem likely, the Taylor rule will point to a need for a higher funds rate. This -- as Greenspan implied in
recent days -- is one reason why the growth side of the equation is still an important input to Fed

David Greenlaw ( New York )

(Thu Jul 24 1997 09:08)
US Exports-Currency crisis
Just if...the currency crisis spill over to South America, it could be well mean the beginning of the burst ( Morgan Stanley and what US exports to South America mean )
Trade: The Latin Boost to U.S. Exports

Let's just say that what is good for Latin America, is good for the United States. That is one way to
interpret the latest regional/country U.S. export figures, which show Latin America as America's most
dynamic export market. Just how vigorous trade has been this year is underscored by the fact that U.S.
exports to Latin America soared by 20.5% in the first five months of this year from the corresponding
period of 1996. That compares to 8.7% year-over-year growth in total U.S. exports ( these figures are
based on nominal numbers ) .

When U.S. exports to Latin America are excluded from the aggregate, exports grew by only 6% in the
January-May period; interestingly, when both Latin America and Canada are excluded, total U.S.
exports expanded by just 4% in the first five months of this year, or by less than half the aggregate rate.
In other words, U.S. exports are drawing more strength from next door than in other parts of the world.
Indeed, of America's fastest growing export markets in the January-May period, five out of the top ten
were in Latin America. Canada ranked number nine ( this only includes markets where U.S. exports
were $1 billion or higher in the period ) .

That is a critical turn of events given the sharp downturn of U.S. exports to Asia, which accounted for
nearly one-third of total U.S. exports in 1996. Exports to developing Asia rose by just 3.7% in the first
five months of this year, although most of this advance was offset by a 3.8% decline in shipments to
Japan. Net, U.S. exports to Asia rose by a measly 1% in the first five months of this year, following an
unimpressive rise of 4% in 1996. In contrast, U.S. exports to Latin America rose by 13.5% last year,
roughly double the rate ( 6.8% ) of total exports.

By country, U.S. exports to Mexico rose 21.3% over the first five months of 1997 from the same period
a year ago. The surge was even greater to Brazil ( 31.8% ) , Argentina ( 26.6% ) and Venezuela ( 24.3% ) .
Even more interesting are the growth rates of U.S. capital goods exports to the region, which are
available through the first quarter of this year. As a sampling:

1 ) Worldwide U.S. computer exports were flat in the first quarter of this year, although computer
exports to Latin America ( defined as Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Mexico and Venezuela ) soared 27.2% in
the first quarter of 1997. This follows a 62% rise in 1996. Latin America took 12% of total U.S.
computer exports last year versus just 4% in 1990.

2 ) Total U.S. exports of computer accessories and peripherals rose by just 3.9% in Q1, but surged
42.4% to Latin America. Last year's growth rate was 25.5%. Thanks to market opening measures in
Brazil, exports of computer accessories nearly doubled between 1994 ( $610 million ) and 1996 ( $1.2
billion ) . Roughly 11% of all U.S. computer peripheral exports went to Latin America in 1996, against a
figure of 6% in 1990.

3 ) The privatization of Latin America's telecommunications industry has led to a corresponding jump in
capital investment. Accordingly, U.S. telecommunications equipment exports to Latin America soared
57.6% in Q1, versus a rise of just 4.3% in total exports. Albeit from a low base, U.S. exports rose by
125.1% to Venezuela in Q1; exports to Brazil were up 90.5% and up 50% to Mexico.

4 ) In the electric equipment and parts category, the story is the same: total exports rose 9.1% in Q1
while those to Latin America were double that rate, 18.3%. Latin America accounted for nearly
one-third of all U.S. exports of electrical equipment in 1996, versus 19% in 1990. This underscores that
U.S. manufacturers have a very strong market hold in the region.

5 ) While U.S. machine tool exports rose by just 4.2% in the first quarter, they climbed 35% to Latin
America in Q1. Exports to Brazil, just $43.3 billion in 1993, totaled $171 million last year, and jumped
another 81% in Q1.

Finally, as icing on the cake, the United States is currently running a trade surplus with Argentina, Brazil
and Chile. Sizable trade deficits remain with Mexico and Venezuela.

The bottom line -- Latin America's cyclical economic rebound, in conjunction with numerous secular
variables ( e.g., trade and investment liberalization ) , have emerged as critical underpins of U.S. export
growth this year. Against this backdrop, one can only hope that Asia's currency virus ( which will result
in slower regional growth and further softness of U.S. exports ) is not passed on to Latin America.

Joe Quinlan ( New York )

(Thu Jul 24 1997 09:16)
DONALD: Back in those days in Wyoming, we called Model A's "puddle
jumpers" because of unpaved roads and lots of "criks" to cross. Wonder
how many paper dollars one of those Model A's sells for today?

Bart Kitner (Kitco)
(Thu Jul 24 1997 09:50)
RE HEPCAT: Is there anyone out there who DOESN'T want hepcat to lose postng access ? If so, kindly let me know by email.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 10:19)
nomercy (US Exports-Currency crisis)
nomercy: Many thx for posting the extremely interesting article about US exports to Latin America.

George Cole
(Thu Jul 24 1997 10:19)
The end of the bull?
Bart: I too would like no more of Hepcat even though I no longer read his posts. His purpose is too destroy this forum via psychological warfare.

How will the stock bull end? Seems to me the vast majority of investors fall into two basic categories:

Those who see the bull continuing indefinitely with nothing more than brief 10% corrections.

Those who know it will end badly, but are sure they will be able to get out in time.

History teaches that neither of these scenarios is probable. Bubbles do not expand forever and tulips do not grow to the sky. Especially with valuations already at historic extremes.

The market did start to turn south about 2 months prior to the 1929 and 1987 crashes, allowing astute technicians to exit in time. But I fear the next crash ( if indeed we are to have one ) will give little or no advance warning. Those looking for a repeat of the pre-crash behavior seen in 1929 and 1987 probably will NOT be able to get out before the deluge hits.

The bible says that excessive pride goeth before the fall. And arrogance and pride are not exactly rare commodities in the financial world today.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 10:24)
a thought
Bart, rather than bar John, bar the jerks that respond to him.
I can understand John's mentality. I don't understand the mentality of those who respond to him. They're the type who like to pick a scap until it bleeds. Leave it alone and it'll heal and go away.

George Cole
(Thu Jul 24 1997 10:27)
From the Fiend's Superbear Page;


Fiend Commentary

The Case For Inflation

An author known as Milhouse summerized his conclusions of why gold will
be a valuable asset in the future:

The credit expansion of the 1920's culminated in the deflationary
1930's because the government could not introduce enough new money to
fill the gap in the money supply caused by debt defaults. This
occurred because the amount of currency which could be created was
limited by the amont of gold held in official reserves [the Fed
actually had to more than double the discount rate in 1931 during
the Sterling Crisis to keep the gold reserves from flowing outside
the U.S.]. The same limitation [foreigners can no longer exchange
dollars for gold since 1971] does not exist today and I am willing
to bet that the money supply will be increased to whatever level it
needs to be to avoid any meaningful short term economic slow down.

[ the complete article is at: ]

When you hear talk about how the U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve
will "save" the financial markets should a collapse occur, Milhouse's
notion of a big surge in the money supply does not seem that
unreasonable. Greenspan will certainly have confidence that he could
pull another "save" as he did in 1987 after the Crash and his efforts
would have political support from both Republicans and Democrats
( neither of which are interested in solving underlying problems ) .
If you think back to last year's gasoline "crisis" and all the blabber
mouthing that went on about Americans having to pay an extra buck or
two at the pump, just imagine a crisis where most of the nation's
mutual funds plunge in value. It would be to easy to expand credit
even further to temporarily "solve" the problem and bring stability back
to the markets in the event of a crash.

Here is a possible scenario:

The economy continues to slow as prices fall ( deflation ) and
more financial assets are sucked into stocks and bonds. Folks
continue to run up debt ( more important to make those mutual
fund contributions ) and save less and less in banks. Somewhere
along the line, the Bull breaks its leg and the stock market
suffers big losses.

Economic growth gets too slow and the political bleatings force
the Fed to cut interest rates. Nevermind that employment levels
are full or that personal debt is already at unmanagable levels,
give the Joes an extra couple of thousand on their credit cards
and all will be well. The Bull's leg is put in a splint and
goes about its merry way.

The first two segments would continue until the limits of the
"New Era" are reached and inflationary pressure ( because of all
that monetary pumping ) explodes with a vengeance. This is where
gold will show its true colors for the first time in 20 years.

The final phase of the cycle would be deflation as folks finally
lose faith in the ability of the government to keep things
floating. U.S. bonds and most stocks would suddenly become the
worthless pieces of paper that they always were. The Bull's
neck would be broken...

Hmmm...this sounds very similar to the Mississippi Company that the
French government tried to pull off over 250 years ago. This would
make a good subject for Friday's commentary...

(Thu Jul 24 1997 10:32)
Delayed Index Quotes

Could someone please give me a string of quotes to get major maket indices, including xau and xoi? I have access to PC Quotes. Yahoo will be fine also. Thank you

(Thu Jul 24 1997 10:34)
To all,
one good site for faster plotting chart,give a go:
enjoy it

(Thu Jul 24 1997 10:39)
Bridge -- Real-time Index Quotes: Click here

(Thu Jul 24 1997 10:49)
Mike Sheller: I would like to add to your comment: "It may be academic to point out ( and rightfully bizarre under the circumstances ) but a true gold pedigree like Placer Dome ( which has a BEAUTIFUL, regal, prosperous horoscope by the way ) is still in a bull market from its lows of the mid 1980's."

Based upon data I had about five years ago ( which may have changed ) Placer Dome was also one of the largest producers of silver in the world. If its silver production has grown apace with its increasing gold production, then Placer Dome is indeed an interesting long-term play - especially based upon your studies.

If anyone has Placer Dome's current silver stats, we would all be interested in seeing them.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 10:51)
BART KITNER: I definitely like to see Gold bears post at this site, as it provides balance and provokes some reflection over ones strategy.
John has gone way beyond this point however, and his postings are nothing
more than noise to be skipped over.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 11:09)
Bart: In the process of scrolling through yesterday's transactions the only impression available was absolute chaos. It was palpable without even reading most of it. In fact, it was impossible to sift the normal discourse from the noise. The distraction simply made concentration impossible.

Restricting access to an open forum is not to be taken lightly. At the same time free speech is not unbounded either. While we are not deciding the fate of nations here, a measure of decorum is expected of everyone in the process of civilized discourse, regardless of their internal passions. It is simply nothing more than the expectation of adult behavior. Those who are unable to control their actions might also benefit from the restriction. It would allow them time to reflect on the nature of cause and effect.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 11:14)
The one thing Hepcat has shown is that the people responding to him are worried that their own bullishness is wrong. It also shows which of the regular posters on this forum are legit in their bullishness and not just whistling past the graveyard.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 11:32)
To Bart:

As you have said, in bold characters, to everyone everytime they sign on to your site :

The content in this group should be related to gold or other precious metals as a commodity, financial instrument, or other tradable asset. Although participants can choose not to reveal their identity, everyone is expected to conduct themselves no differently than when engaged in a real face to face discussion.

If the insane chatter last night had anything to do about Gold, I'm leaving! The problem is that we really don't know, and you can't exactly verify, who is talking to whom. It could be that others are getting annoyed and using alias names as a shield; it could also be that John is talking to himself. Who's to know? Under that umbrella, perhaps it would be best to just throw a blanket over the site and say in general, if you don't observe the above, you're banned ... period ... You don't need this crap, we don't need this crap, and it really is just that ... crap ... Get rid of it ASAP. Use the above as reasoning since we all have to read it every time we enter and get it over with. Start right now. Make the rule. Bounce the first person to break it and let it be known in public who and why you bounced them. That would straighten them and things out in a hurry. Start from scratch right now, that way you can't be seen as being unjust. BUT please so something! Please!


(Thu Jul 24 1997 11:32)
What complete hypocrisy. You, who never post a real name or E-mail address.
You, who write things like "shittykitty" or "won't somebody please put him
out of his misery?" You, who posted access to all of my personal information,
who violated me, and then claim that I deserved it. You, who insist on baiting
me, tormenting me, diagnosing me, posting under my handle, and expect me to just sit back and smile beatifically. Who are you making this site safer for?
What kind of site is left when you strong arm or silence anyone who disagrees
with you. Who is right? What does the market tell you? Not what your twisted
mind tells you. What is the most objective milepost availalbe for telling
you who has been right at every step? Kick a rock. Keep kicking rocks.
And keep convincing yourself your toe doesn't hurt. This is a site for
spoiled children. I didn't invite them. I didn't create them. I exposed them.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 11:40)
To Bridge:
Hey Bridge,

I did .... 2 days ago .... Don't read your mail much?

Last time :


set up a free account and it's all there in 15 minute delayed.


(Thu Jul 24 1997 11:48)
@Check it out
To All- I believe this bull has reached it pinnacle!
For the chartists- look at the latest DJIA weekly chart and tell me what you see? It looks to me like a reversal is taking place before our very eyes.

Precious metals I believe have bottomed and are now testing same. If the scenario continues reversals should start to develop from now on.

With regards to John the childish Hepcat. Enough time and energy and replies have already been wasted. As I've suggested before- it would be a shame to start becoming choosy as to who should post and who shouldn't.
It is far more sensible to not reply to this guys childish outbursts, try ignoring and skipping past his posts, he'll probably dissappear just like some of the other annoyances we have had to put up with from time to time.

I do agree it is good to have someone with a different view point, but there are limits. RJ is a good example of adding some new ideas and thoughts, and he has shown us that he is an experienced player. We all learn from people like him. But let us not confuse a pro with a buffoon.

Have a pleasant weekend y'all. If our strike permits, I should be in London real soon.

John Disney
(Thu Jul 24 1997 11:57)
To all
I haven't seen them yet, but more mining results will be out tomorrow.
I understand western deep,freegold,vaal reefs, east dagga are good and
elandrand and ergo are not so good. Western deeps cost fell to 288$/oz
from 318$/oz last quarter.
Those Analysts who gleefully await major mine closures here with the RSA mines "awash in red ink" will be in for a surprise or two.
To those interested in "flation" - just read that London house prices
are up by 25 per cent in the first 6 months of the year in the face of a
strong pound. With the dmark dissolving and what that would preview for
the direction on the euro currency, I have a problem seeing prices of
hard assets in europe declining ( unless people have no money whatever
even of a weak variety to buy anything more pricey than a loaf of bread ) .

(Thu Jul 24 1997 12:00)
1 day of rest...only ONE
ALL...PA futures moving back up ... up $2.50 now...karbarator still not working on those ruskee trucks!! Go SWC go!!

(Thu Jul 24 1997 12:04)
Thank you

Front Thanks. Great site

(Thu Jul 24 1997 12:05)
John Disney -- I posted a couple of items @8:20 and 7:54 about the S.A. mines. Any comments that you have on the stories would be welcome. Thanks.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 12:05)
George Cole..Would appreciate your opinion and everyone else...The CB'S
are saying that there is no inflation? Well I am in the financial services
business and recently more and more of my clients are informing me that
the work force at their companies are going on strike. Now, I really didn't
pay much attention before but, I am hearing this "strike " business more
frequently. What does that say about wage inflation? Secondly, I am very
interested, as one of our forum participants recently mentioned, that our
news media has completely ignored the currency crisis in Asia. If the
Asian CB'S are meeting tomorrow to determine what they should do, I would
like to present a possible scenario. Japan holding a trillion US$ in debt
decides to start selling off some, in order to get the US$ down a little
to take the pressure off the Baht and other Asian currencies for a short
time. What may happen to the US markets and Gold? I would speculate
all hell might break loose. Your comments would be appreciated.
Best Regards

(Thu Jul 24 1997 12:08)
Bart: Re Hepcat: I realise you asked for an e-mail response, but I would like everybody to have the opportunity to see this post. The short reply is: I simply am not sure what your best course of action is. My initial reaction was that, unlike others ( Dr. Doom, Long Gone, etc. ) who have been virtually run off this site for expressing dissenting views, Hepcat has chosen to stay and fight it out, bare-knuckle if necessary.
I personally have no qualms about this, provided it is legal ( Earl @11:09 is correct - there are some bounds to free speech. The law will not permit free speech to be used as an excuse to commit treason, perjury or defamation, for instance ) . However, if the vast majority of Kitcoites are so offended by Hepcat that they choose to leave rather than tolerate him, the brilliance which is clearly present will be lost, and the site may be irreparably harmed.
Even if you decide to ban Hepcat, you face technical problems in doing so. Unless you convert the site to a full registration site, possibly with a fee for posting privileges, I cannot see how Hepcat could be prevented from simply changing handle/e-mail address every time he wants to continue his merry way.
Hepcat is not the lunatic many here make him out to be. What if you, Bart, were to make a personal approach to him to tone it down and resume the debate on a more amiable footing - put him on probation, if you will. To some extent, Hepcat has already achieved one of his purposes - bearish views are much more readily received at this site than when I first began lurking, many months ago. If the regulars are truly persons of character and dignity, they should be able to forgive Hepcat his previous social indiscretions, provided he maintains a civilized tone, and posts at the intellectual level of which he clearly is capable. Banning him may simply make a martyr out of him, and possibly provoke others to try the same tactics.
Aside from the individual chagrin, there is something of a philosophical battle being waged here right now ( no doubt another of Hepcat's intents ) . Should Kitco 1 be an open forum, for a wide variety of dissenting, even extreme, views ? Or should it be a sheltered workshop for goldbugs to while away their hours in the comfort of each other's company ? Bart, I guess that decision is yours to make. I have no preference either way - I'll still lurk and read the posts. I'm afraid I must return to lurking - I have "real life" work to do !

(Thu Jul 24 1997 12:12)
George Cole ( 10:19 )
I agree with your post and would add only this. My Bible says:
For when they shall say peace and safety; then sudden destruction comes upon them, as travail upon a woman with with child; and they shall not escape. I Thessalonians 5:3

(Thu Jul 24 1997 12:12)
Pa (again)
Panda...Pa now up $3.50...any news that you can find??

(Thu Jul 24 1997 12:17)
Now Pl, Pa, Au, and Si all moving up into the up $1.50..Dow down about 70...hum....

(Thu Jul 24 1997 12:18)
catching up on all the comments
Tired........good job on your gold theory! I do believe that many on the street ( and a few here ) are missing the fact that gold has an intrinsic value. I know a particular wife of a good friend of mine who lives and dies for gold jewelry. She is always wearing something really nice ( not gaudy ) - even when she is mowing the yard! I'll bet she's spent 10 grand in the last few years on gold jewelry, and that trend doesn't look to stop ( unless hubby's money is in the stock market ) .

Although your scenario of the rich ( on paper ) gentlemen selling their stocks for gold for their wives is a little far fetched [G], your theory of "intrinsic" value for the sake of looking good makes much sense.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 12:20)
Gold eagle IRA?? wanna put Eagles in an IRA? can do a self-directed IRA. I believe you are now allowed to buy them and put them in a safety deposit box. Also, companies like Monex and Blanchard will do that for you ( I think ) . Blanchard's number is 800-880-4653. They can tell you for sure. Ask for Brad. I don't have the Monex number handy, but I'm sure it's in the 800 directory at 800-555-1212.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 12:21)
lunch time humor
For all: thought I'd throw in a joke for today ( apologies to Tortfeasor! )

After extensive investigation by both the Russian and US space agencies,
spokespersons from both organizations announced that they have
determined the cause for the accident which has placed the station and
its resident personnel in jeopardy. In a terse statement at a recent
press conference, Soviet and US space agency spokespersons said
Thursday: "We have concluded joint investigations concerning this
potentially tragic accident and each nation's team, separately, has
arrived at identical conclusions for this incident. The accident was
caused by one thing and one thing only: Objects in Mir are closer than
they appear."

(Thu Jul 24 1997 12:23)
JOHN DISNEY: What does the South African Index JGAI titled South African all gold 10% refer to?

(Thu Jul 24 1997 12:24)
Gold up and the US dollar up and lease rates up. It will be interesting to see if this means anything to those whose curriencies are being devalued.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 12:24)
JOHN DISNEY: What does the South African Index JGAI titled South African all gold 10% refer to?

(Thu Jul 24 1997 12:25)
JOHN DISNEY: Correction the Index symbol is JGLD.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 12:26)
ok, one more joke
A gold trader goes camping in the woods for the first time. Being a prudent gentleman, he hires a guide for his week-long trek. He is also a lover of nature and has a hard time harming any animal, to include stepping on ants. His guide is helpful, but has only one strong warning: under no circumstances should you come between a mama bear and her cubs. Other than that, these woods are pretty safe. A couple days go by and sure enough, the trader accidently walks between a mama bear and her cubs. Of course, the mama bear is furious and comes after our hero. His guide yells for him to pick up a club to hit the bear, then run like hell. Not being a violent man, he accepts his fate and his last words to his guide were: "Well, we all have our bears to cross."

Pizza Man
(Thu Jul 24 1997 12:27)
El-Nino news
Steve from ( down under ) :

Here is a site regarding more El-Nino information.

How do you highlight a URL so other posters can just click on it?

(Thu Jul 24 1997 12:30)
Kitco site question
Bart.....I'm looking for an answer about the "Options" blocks. It used to be that I could stop a download and reset the options -- like the dates or oldest first. Now I have to wait for the whole download to get the option screen to display all the buttons. Is this something in my machine or did you rearrange all the electrons again? :- ) )

(Thu Jul 24 1997 12:31)
Pizza Man -- put in the http:// and that should do it!

(Thu Jul 24 1997 12:32)
@liberty vs nonsense

Bart, what is this announcement for?...Everytime we enter this marvelous site.

The content in this group should be related to gold or other precious metals as a commodity, financial instrument, or other tradable asset. Although participants can choose not to reveal their identity, everyone is expected to conduct themselves no differently than when engaged in a real face to face discussion. Newcomers should review Kitco`s netiquette before posting.....!!!

I am a humble lurker who spent an awful lot of time in this site. I do not post often because I am considering myself as a student at this stage even if I am retired at 53 with an awful amount of money ( for me ) at stake in the markets in general and in gold stocks in particular.
Since the CAT pissed all over the site I fell I am wasting my time here...

SOS....SOS....SOS...Bart, Please !

(Thu Jul 24 1997 12:35)
BillD -- Been away from the computer for a while ( even I have to do some work!:- ) ) ) Got to go back to slave duties now.... BBML

Bob Palermo
(Thu Jul 24 1997 12:37)
Machf15 - I use gold as an "insurance" policy in my investment portfolio. I balance the rest of my investments, which are mostly in stock funds, with a small percentage of gold. As such, I don't worry about the price of gold or direction that it is heading when I buy. Actually, I will probably be happiest if gold doesn't run up because if it does, it probably means that the rest of my investments will be going down.

Some may say that the gold is a non-performing asset but this is true of the "insurance" portion of any insurance policy. It doesn't perform until and unless you need it.

Bob A
(Thu Jul 24 1997 12:38)
FWIW, Ithink it's time to buy SWC.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 12:40)
To Scotty: (:-))

I can hear faintly a chant brewing ....

The first joke was great; the second started to echo the following in my ears ....

We want TORT ! We want TORT! ( :- ) ) ) )

Thanks ( :- ) )

(Thu Jul 24 1997 12:45)
is it the turning point?
CRB index over 336 and holding, gold rallied up, dow is down

(Thu Jul 24 1997 12:51)
FUTURES PRICES ( HIGHS TODAY ) : Gold 327.50 ( +3.70 ) , Silver 4.42 ( +12.5 cents ) , Platinum 411 ( +3.30 ) & Palladium 184.50 ( +5.00 ) . SEE Intera-Day charts:

(Thu Jul 24 1997 12:52)
Turning ?

It should be noted that within the last 15~20 minutes, the Toronto Gold index has turned completely around. Gold prices on EBN have risen above the 326 level again. The big blue chip funds on the TSE are floating to down and Energy seems to be holding steady. However, the turn around in Gold was quite dramatic and sudden considering. Orvana is the only real holdout of low prices at -4% from yesterday. Perhaps I move further into the Precious metals nearer days end. We'll see ....


(Thu Jul 24 1997 12:53)
@Gold RELATED...!

Please look at this nice gold graph today.

Up $2.70 in less than an hour.


(Thu Jul 24 1997 12:54)
Debt orgy:
Todays wsj: Always page c2 is reserved for the index charts. Not today. Today something more important than mere charts is on page c2. Page c2 alone lists 1.6 billion in brand new debt for sale. Page c3 adds another 1.6. All this debt is due around the year 2007. Some big players think the time is ripe to lay some big paper. Give me the money now and ( if I can or want to ) I'll pay you back later.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 12:57)
@Please Reload it is now plus $3.50
Is it the THING!!!
Marshtians are on a rampage?


(Thu Jul 24 1997 12:59)
Lelands Story
Leland.....I too like to gamble with the metals..It is a game and there are big profits and big losses...I don't play with butter and egg money and what I might lose is what came from a previous venture...The past few months haven't been good for Mr. Gold and Mr. Silver, but their day will come again...I will be ready...I want to gamble some more.!!!!!

(Thu Jul 24 1997 13:04)
As a long time lurker, I finally feel compelled to respond to those who are trying to get the "Cat" thrown off the site. Such squelching of intelligent dissenting opinion, espeecially since his track record has been about a million times better than those who'd like to shut him up, makes me truly question who on this site, deserves to be listened to. Attention Site NAZIS, you can put your heads in the sand and mentally masterb*** each other, or you can have a GENUINE forum with value. If you ban the "Cat", your forum and your opnions will be reduced to a credibility level of ZERO. When I was younger, I listened to the likes of you people ( Howard Ruff and such ) and lost my entire savings on gold and silver investments. It's taken a LONG time ( 20 years ) to scratch my way back to having a decent savings, ALL built up from stock investments I might add. Had I continued to listen to you folks, I'd have remained broke or worse. I still believe gold and silver will shine, silver especially since above ground reserves are disappearing with no meaningful CB holdings, BUT I can also say I wish I'd had a "Hepcat" around when I was younger. Mind fascists, if you're that afraid of being wrong, if your thesis are THAT fragile that they can't stand critical scrutiny, then you shouldn't be posting anyway. Leave Hepcat alone!

(Thu Jul 24 1997 13:05)
Inflation .....

To back up what Slick said this morning about workers wanting to strike, Canada Post has announced that they want an 11% pay raise this time around. Does that say anything about wage inflation hitting the steets soon? Sure does to me!


GM strike
(Thu Jul 24 1997 13:10)
If you want to see the effect of the y2k bug, look at the effect of the GM factory strike in the US. One factory goes down and the whole system stops.

Also, I can't get through to my coin dealer, his phones are busy!

And, there are only 20% bulls!!!!

(Thu Jul 24 1997 13:25)

The squelch function that you have advertised seems to be the perfect solution. We can consider it a V-chip for adults. Those who wish not to be burdened by what they feel is inappropriate behavior will be free to use it and forever be unencumbered by prose which offends their eyes. For others who are willing to wade through piles of refuse in order to glean the occasional pearl, or to engage in verbal warfare, they will be free to do so. If we start banning people from the site its going to get real ugly as people petition you when they feel they have been slighted. Its likely the membership will dwindle as more censorship wars are waged. If a certain individual's posts are unanimously disliked then that person will end up with an audience of one. A most fitting punishment. On a technical note, the squelch function would work best in an environment where posters were identifiable to you so that they could not subvert the intent by posting under a new name. Thanks for maintaining the site.

Three dollar
(Thu Jul 24 1997 13:25)
I wonder if the $3 is just for rolling over the comex contacts?

Mike Sheller
(Thu Jul 24 1997 13:26)
lunch charts
August Gold has closed the gap, and now come back to test above it. Today's reversal UP needs to take out 329 ( psychologically, 330 would be nicer ) solidly. If so, we go to 345ish for next resistance. On 7/18/97 we observed "October Platinum ( then 394 ) must knife thru congestion between 400-410. In which case it will meet next resist at 430-435. It appears to be chewing through today. Looks like we may be into rally mode for now gang. Put in your stops on gold at 324.50 basis August, and start nibbling. As RJ would say, put down the first "layer" lads & lassies.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 13:40)
time to see the colour of your GOLD

(Thu Jul 24 1997 13:40)
Up 5.10 on KITCO.
I hope we see a close above 331. today.
Gold seems to be very uncomfortable when it's below 325.
Sure hope this is what it seems to be on the surface, putting in a bottom.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 13:45)
International Analyst, James Dines Rule of Gold Countertrend says: The price of gold tends to move generally opposite to the rest of the stock market. See July 21, 1997 Study at:

(Thu Jul 24 1997 13:45)
@D.A.You are Right.
DA You are right,
The necessity to protect our freedom of speech on the internet is Primordial.
So this squelche solution seems to be the perfect answer for those of us who do not want to lose our interest in learning from this EXTRAODINAIRE site where I love to read 99999999999999999999% of Participants.

I am with you 100%.

Gold more than $5.00 since the morning low.


(Thu Jul 24 1997 13:46)
With gold, and silver way up today, it will be interesting to see whether our biggest market newscasters ( KGO ) will report the big increase at ALL on their afternoon market updates, let alone, report it with the same GLEEFUL toine to their voice that they use everytime there is even a minor drop in the price! I hate to sound like a consipracy freak, but I wonder sometimes about the extra level of bias in even something so innocuos as reporting daily market moves! Has anyone else noticed this?

(Thu Jul 24 1997 13:49)
Lets decide this and move on..............
Bart - I decided a couple weeks ago to just ignore our wayward son and leave his posts unread. These posts have, however, become the main topic on this site. I have, against my better judgment, reviewed the last few days and found his posts to be more of the same. This guy has not only filled this site with acrimony, but he hasnt offered one iota of useful information in all that I have read.. He simply repeats the same attacks over and over again. I strongly suspect this sad man has zero money riding on his bombastic proclamations. I can only conclude this because he claims to "know" what the market will do. He will even call a date and state, with all certainty, what the closing price will be. This kind of absolutism would prove to be a colossal failure in the real world. So instead, he comes here with his market masturbations and demands that all bow and call him king. He then whines that it is his views that have so many upset. This is the worst kind of tripe and transparent to all who visit this site regularly.

I read this page for a year before I ever posted. I have seen many try to express bearish views only to be shouted down. The posters would then, either change their handle, modify their views, or quietly slink away. Tolerance of opposing views has been very slight at times. I, for one, think that any forum requires input from all views, otherwise, it is not a discussion group, but a fan club. I have noted, however, that the more reasoned members here look for just one thing from a dissenting view: arguments and facts to back up positions expressed.. When these are presented in a strait forward manner, often the issue is set to rest with an agreement to disagree. Their are some more rabid responses to dissent but, lacking good foundation to argue effectively, often are reduced to the status of "dont confuse me with the facts, Ive made up my mind".

I burst into this group about six weeks ago with a position guaranteed to provoke response. I knew what the majority view here was, and I voiced an opposing opinion about gold as a buy and hold investment. Some tried to shout me down as well. Rather than simply getting into a pissing contest, I presented facts and figures to back up my opinions. While not changing the minds of those who disagreed, they soon calmed down and offered there own facts and figures in rebuttal. I have been in these markets for many years, but a day does not go by in which I do not learn something from these members.

So it finally comes down to, not the views expressed, but the manner of expression. I have crossed the boundaries of proper etiquette in the past, but in reviewing my own manner, offered apology before any was demanded of me. I recognize impoliteness even if I am the one being impolite. Now, while their are still many who strongly disagree with me, I feel as if I have been accepted.

Our naughty member still will cry to all, "you dont like me because of my views!" The sad truth is, we dont like him because he is so thoroughly dislikable. After reading some of his other writings, I find him all the more sad. He has an obvious talent with words, but an insecurity that forces him to use this talent to hurt. I truly believe he does not see anything wrong with the way he acts. Like OJ, he feels justified in what he does. This much is apparent.

Should he be restricted? Since he does not recognize the harm he causes and feels quite justified in continuing his combative ways, I feel that the welcome mat has been left out long enough. He has abused his privileges here far too often and they should therefore be revoked. This revocation should carry the caveat that it is not his views that you are closing the door on, but his manners. He likes to call himself a cat, but I find his musings the petty and pretentious preenings of a paranoid pup.

If I may offer on final suggestion: Perhaps you could require all posters to register with you using their proper e-mail address and their chosen password. You could then e-mail back a first time access password that would not reach the poster without a correct e-mail address. From that time forward, the poster would need to log on with his own password. This method would prevent people from simply changing their handle to avoid repercussions. They could sidestep this by using a friends e-mail, but I suspect sad pups of John-boys ilk have very few friends.

Thank you for providing an extraordinary site where all may come together, with respect to their fellows, and share their views.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 13:58)
BART: I monitor this site because there are periodic reports such as the recent FRONT post which alerts me to something I am unaware. I am receptive to all viewpoints on the market, bear or bull. I have made money with gold descending from 400 and lost some. All meaningful comments on the market and intelligent discussions do us all good.

I am forced to overlook the asinine comments of some whose arrogance is inverse to the amount of money they have on the table. Yesterday the site was full of insulting garbage which surely causes other intelligent visitors to go somewhere else in search of rational thought.

If someone isn't investing money, his opinion doesn't carry much weight with me. I've seen plenty of high school math majors make money on paper and loss their butt in the real world.

For those kitgoists contributing concise, intelligent comments about economic possibilities, please don't be blown out by immature idiots. Like George, I have learned to skip certain contributors.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 14:03)
I think many have missed the point- it isn't his views on gold or markets that have been his undoing, but his style-anger, bile, bitterness,etc.. IF one is more intelligent than others, or IF one has better insight, then one should accept it gracefully and help others develop theirs as well. Or keep quiet. I am more than willing to forego what MAY be insightful analysis in return for civility. I suffer what I consider to be some silly opinions on this site, but I feel no ill-will or anger towards the authors, because for the most part, they are offered with good intentions and a pleasant air. Skin the cat!

(Thu Jul 24 1997 14:04)
@Gold related
Gold UP more than $ 7.00 since the morning Low.Now $ 329.20.
Venusians are jumping in too?

(Thu Jul 24 1997 14:10)
in the mountains
those with GOLD have many friends
those with SORROWS have none

(Thu Jul 24 1997 14:15)

Gosh, yeah, and then RJ would have no competition. Like that response
( quite long for someone who expresses no interest in dealing with
people who live in the mud ) was a big surprise.

RJ, a little tip for you, good buddy. Aurophile may have groomed you, and
you may think everybody loves you, but you last as long on this
site as you're deemed useful, or as long as people can tolerate
your infallibility.

I predicted $325 on July 29 and encouraged others to make a prediction.
Here again, for people who cannot read or understand, were the conditions
of the bet. IF YOU WERE OFF BY $5, you couldn't post for a month.
Not one of the big players ( who come to this site to learn ) cared to bet.
Now, why is that? If they come to this site to learn, why would they care
if they made an incorrect prediction and couldn't post for a month? They
could absorb a lot during that month, maybe learn how actions have
consequences. No, what they were worried about is that they would
lose their ability to post, and be unable to revel in their own brilliance.
RJ, you clearly know a lot, and you lurked for a year, so why didn't
you make a prediction? You would have had five dollars to play
with on either side of your number.
When has the gold market moved more than $10 in a two week span
in the last year?
Listen to you. You claim no one can predict the future, with one exception.
The only problem is, you're not the exception, and you're attempting to
eliminate the exception. Oh well, at least your disciples will learn a lot
about micturation.

Goldbug23 AKA Omega-1
(Thu Jul 24 1997 14:18)
Pizza Man: The http:// gets the job done. El Nino and 2000 are major economic factors right now in our lives. Go to it. Pls post your El Nino site!

Goldbug Omega - 1
(Thu Jul 24 1997 14:22)
Diogines: Well said. We cynics have to stick together. Ingotwetrust somewhere down the line. Maybe 2000 will do it!

(Thu Jul 24 1997 14:26)
Comment taken from news release:

``Since the overwhelming source of the short position lies in the American market which has a limited time horison in trades of
this sort, we can reasonably expect some relief from the weight over the market as the speculative shorts are squared in due
course,'' Anglo gold division, Anglogold, marketing director Kelvin Williams said.

Williams said at a presentation of Anglogold June quarter results that the group expected the depressed gold price to return to
an equilibrium underpinned by firm physical offtake.

He said gold producers should pay more attention to physical offtake rather than be spooked by Central Bank selloffs of gold

``The fundamentals of supply and demand continue to grow increasingly favourable for the metal and the relative influence of
individual elements in the mix of supply and demand shows a very different picture from that painted by journalists and
analysts,'' he added.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 14:42)
Sorry for the repete. Miles' 08:55 post covered the complete news release.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 14:46)
Excuse me....that's "repeat" not "repete". Where's my mind!!??

(Thu Jul 24 1997 14:48)
they are trying to keep it in a nice range

John Disney
(Thu Jul 24 1997 15:01)
for Panda
Your comment on RSA mining costs is incisive. RSA costs have been
as crazily overstated as North American costs have been understated.
I just read a statement somewhere by Mister Munk of Barrick that their
production was sold forward at 420 and their costs were less 200. The
implication is that they will make 220$ per ounce of gold produced.
I dont believe that is true - do you??
I dont have time now but Ill check it against his earnings per share
figures tomorrow.

Regular Poster
(Thu Jul 24 1997 15:06)
@hepcat situation
Bart: First, let me say thankyou once again for this informative site that you provide us. And let me thank all the regular contributors who share their knowledge with us.

I agree with many here who are tired of putting up with the rantings of john hepcat. I can ignore it as I have done in the past, but I fear that some of the worthwhile contributors will leave because of this nonsense. I think this is an incredible site do to the postings of several regulars. Unfortunately, the atmosphere here has degenerated to a point that lends to frivolous comments.

Can you please take some action to remedy the hepcat situation before more damage is done to this site?

(Thu Jul 24 1997 15:21)
@ Shaking The Tree:
Looks like August Gold ended up .10 cents according to the lastest DBC quote. High 329.70 Low 321.2 Close 323.9 Look like some shaking of the tree took place today. Maybe. Well, how did that song go: "We won't be fooled again." Maybe.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 15:26)
It is noted that the Dec. contract is outperforming the August contract, anyone care to comment on the reason therefore.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 15:27)
Arly: I could not agree with you more. Those ignored soon go away!

(Thu Jul 24 1997 15:34)
I just discovered this site,what looks like live update on all US indexes

Gold,Silver as well.It is jumping around all over the place,not rigged though.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 15:40)
If one looks at the DBC Futures contracts page, there are few red numbers and a jumb in the CRB.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 15:41)
Your comments appreciated

(Thu Jul 24 1997 15:46)
Let me try again:

(Thu Jul 24 1997 15:52)
BART: The current situation has gotten out of hand and as such the remedy should not become the model for the future. Hepcat has been about the same in his way of posting on other sites and not ended up in this mess. There is much a problem with his combatants as there is with him. The starting point is that Hepcat predicted the infamous "3-2-5" and he was right and embarrassed regulars who can only see gold going up. Rather than dealing with whatever insight he has he has been attacked personally and responded in a similar vein.

Any "bear" posting here is going to get the same reception. Any "bear" who is eventually right is going to have to demonstrate much more restraint than both Hepcat and his combatants if the situation is to be avoided in the future.

As much spacer is wasted here daily with jokes, complaints about welfare neighbours and representatives of looser causes as been lost to the Hepcat. They just aren't as interesting. The solution is in dealing with this predictable harrassment by the majority of those who see gold and other PM going up and those who don't. It's a policy decision thats needed once the current situation is dealt with.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 15:56)
Look out Below
ALL...Just a guess, but here goes....Today may have established the range we trade in for the next few days, weeks or maybe months....That is IF the bottom holds....The range would be a good one ( $314-$329 ) and would be big enough for all to make some $$$..You should expect the $314 to be tried again, probably as gold just drifts downward....

(Thu Jul 24 1997 16:10)
TERRY..........Thanks for the posting on that site....IT IS NEAT !!!! TED...Saw your early AM post...YOU DEVIL !!!You just had to rub it in on me because I couldn't go didn't you ?????Hope you enjoyed your trip to Scaterie and found some gold too.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 16:14)
in sack-o-tomatoes
How many of us would still be annoyed with hepcat if all the posts forged under his name were erased from our memories? Apparently, many of the most irritating ones were forged. Take away the bombast, and much of what he says is quite sensible.

In any case, it's amazing to me just how disruptive one person can actually be, as he brings out the worst in others. Someone pointed out that 36% of the posts yesterday morning were related to this little spat, even though John himself only posted 9 of them. It's a regular case study in sociology, if you ask me. I have a little better understanding now of what has happened to usenet. Conceivably, it could happen to Kitco too, if Bart doesn't get a handle on it.

By all means bring on the squelch button, Bart, but do something about forgeries too, please. Should we ban John? Maybe. I just don't want to live under a one-party system, that's all. This site is only useful to me as an investor if I can hear all the arguments, both bullish and bearish, so that I can make up my own mind.

And now something that actually has a bearing on gold:

Russia Gold Export Decree in Limbo

Thursday, July 24, 1997; 11:37 a.m. EDT

MOSCOW ( AP ) -- Russian officials haven't yet resolved
differences over a draft presidential decree liberalizing gold
exports and it's not clear when the document might be signed,
the Prime-Tass news agency reported Thursday.

The report contradicted a Tass dispatch Wednesday, which
said President Boris Yeltsin had signed the order during a
meeting with First Deputy Prime Minister Boris Nemtsov and
Central Bank Chairman Sergei Dubinin.

Thursday, Tass quoted an unidentified government official as
saying some officials still fear that eliminating the current
government monopoly on gold exports would destabilize the
gold market.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 16:15)
Nailz: Just in the door and who's name is at the top of the page...YOU...I do believe in fate...A FANTASTIC Scaterie Island experience and will e-mail you when I can lift my arms...BBL!

(Thu Jul 24 1997 16:24)
Standard & Poors places 5 South Korean banks on watch list with negative implications.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 16:25)
Warren Buffet

Buffet says to buy when a security is priced so low that the value is screaming at you. For gold mining stocks, that time is now.
Forget the charts, forget the short-term volatility--just buy gold.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 16:33)
World Trade Org. rules prevent So. Korean bailout of Kia Motors. They complain that WTO rules prevent them from doing what US Govt. did for Chrysler. NWO types take note.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 16:34)
Did anyone post a response to the "Last Warning" by "Big Trader" several days ago? I believe it said something like:

russia's the key, japans a sideshow, the bulls charging???,uplink severed

Is this a hoax or what?

(Thu Jul 24 1997 16:44)
Does anyone care about rhodium? A chart is here at anyone care to comment...

(Thu Jul 24 1997 16:55)
As a true novice with a much-battered ego I can ask this question: what in #$@% has been going on with the gold price over the past three days? On Tuesday, and again today, we saw the price rocket vertically only to fall just as fast and hard. Who's sending messages to whom, and who would appear to have the stronger hand here...those who can drive it up, or those who can knock the rally down? Thanks in advance.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 17:10)
Market Vane Report
You bears have plenty of company, the Market Vane has 18% bullish on gold, lowest since 16% in 1985.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 17:10)
Friction with Asian and Western!!
ASEAN tells West to "stay out" of Asia's financial problems:

What, they don't want US to "fix" the problems?? How absurd!!

(Thu Jul 24 1997 17:11)
it'll be interesting to see market reaction, to the "warnings". Golds upturn is not far away
Microsoft forecast: dreary
Software giant still points to market
saturation and slowing profit growth

(Thu Jul 24 1997 17:11)
Tom I'm interested in Rhodium but am also looking for info. Supply/demand figures at

(Thu Jul 24 1997 17:15)
Malaysia says it has enough reserves to support currency.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 17:20)
Novice I second your motion. In the gold war between bulls and bears I for one could use an on the scene war correspondent. The battle has inflicted casualties on my portfolio. BTW anybody have any news on PGU? Off 12% this week.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 17:21)
Goldman: You are goldwise and just plain wise. The fundamental investment axiom of the 1990s -- it is never too late to buy stocks or sell gold -- is about to be repealed.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 17:22)
Donald : When would the South Koreans ever learn? Had they paid attention to the Wall Street Journal, they would have found out how NJ Gov. Christy Todd Whitman got around a very similar situation with a personal telephone call to Harold McGraw III. The story is not too old, being that it was published on Page C1 of the newspaper's July 22, 1997 edition. At the very least their embassy should find out if DNC is accepting cotributions for the next elections: )

(Thu Jul 24 1997 17:25)
Yesterday I said down and hopefully an upside reversal well it looks like we got the upside reversal but in typical fashion someone couldnt resist taking out the close timid long stops AT THE END OF THE DAY/typical modus op. When silver got crushed from its high that is when S&P stabalized/ when gold gave up its gains it was off to the races for the S&P. The higher volitility in gold means the Wall St S&P futures supporters are having a more difficult time killing gold. Someone is now in opposition to them in both silver and gold. Spike failed rallies are often followed by spikes/ a sign supply and demand is changing. The next week should be interesting. The Wall St boys have their hands full..I think!

(Thu Jul 24 1997 17:27)
Could one of the 'old heads' here on Kitco tell me who Big Trader is? He seems to get a lot of respect, but I don't know if he is for real or if y'all are joking about him. Has he made predictions in the past that have come true? What's the story here. Thanks


(Thu Jul 24 1997 17:33)
Re: Goldman, Buffet
Goldman: Value does seem to be screaming at us across the precious metal sector. Silver eagles look very good to me. Screaming eagles, soon to be airborne.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 17:37)
Is Russia planning to sell gold
Can someone give some insight to the announcement today regarding Russias decree to export gold. Are they planning to sell Gold or are they planing to add to their reserves. Is this the explanation to why Gold dropped so rapidly today after gaining some momentum.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 17:37)
Nailz : Your 15:56. Agreed. If 314 is breached, the next stop is the 1985 low of 280. On the other hand I also agree with Glenn, our mole on the Comex trading floor, that if a sharp leg down has to happen it would happen sooner rather than later. With every passing day and with a look at the following chart, I feel that maybe, just maybe, the low is already in place.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 17:41)
NJ: Or the SK banks could have hired Haley Barbour as a "Consultant" I understand that he has had some experience in dealing with issues of this type. Oh well, there will be plenty more opportunities later!

john doe
(Thu Jul 24 1997 17:43)
WARNING: any new post by a first-timer in support of JOhn boy is in fact Johnny trying desparately to squelch his impending demise from this group.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 17:47)
fldas reopiopt]tq r] \r0i23n\
gold is currently up 70 c on the Access

(Thu Jul 24 1997 17:47)
Mike Sheller-Heliocentric Astrology points to Gold rally window starting about the 31 of this month and lasting no more than 10 days.In regards to explaining the tectonics of planetary configurations I have neither the time or patience to write a book at this time.Please don't take my remarks in a dispraise fashion as time is very scarce but I continue to be bearish on Gold to the end of January 1998.Happy trails.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 17:53)
Dow/Gold ratio is at 25.05 tonight. Still hanging in below the old high. A turnaround is still in effect, but just barely.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 17:56)
more damage control by the CB's
Analysts explanation on today's runup and subsequent pullback..
Also, Chile "is not selling gold"

(Thu Jul 24 1997 17:58)
Russian Gold
Steve: Here are two more short articles on Yeltsin's decree

(Thu Jul 24 1997 17:58)
Today's sharp sell off had NOTHING to do with russia and everything to do with some bearish locals trying to make money ( Dishonestly perhaps ) . The one event which really caught my attention was right before the close when we were at about 324.70/325.00 and one local came in totally ignoring all bids and sold 324.00. I don't have any idea how many he sold. Problable just 2 or 3 contracts but it just created enought confusion as a 324.00 print was being put up on the boards. No doupt it hit stops and then thous traders had to follow tru with more aburd prints. It was very heckic and he clearly was taking advantage of it and making it worse. Gold is up slightly on access with it no doupt should be. Of course in no way can I blame the whole decline on this. We seemed to really drift down as the Dow was turning positive which is correct logic and the bigger picture still remains "Is the DOW going to 9000 in a straight line or are we going to have a sizeable correction soon?" I keep thinking that it will correct soon but ..... The money supply came out a little while again. It dropped alot. Over-all very bullish for stocks and bonds and bearish for Gold and silver. The CRB looks like it is breaking out to the upside on the daily charts but will this be enought. Oh well no clear answer but isn't that what makes the markerts!

(Thu Jul 24 1997 18:02)
MIKE SHELLER: AJ Frost of Elliott Wave fame has commented that significant Dow turning points are near squared numbers. For example, Sept 3, 1929 was 381, close to 20 squared. We have been hanging around the 8100 level for days, it doesnt seem anxious to bust out. That is 90 squared. Does your kind of work lead you to an opinion on that?

(Thu Jul 24 1997 18:06)
Thanks Glen and Ron. So who is this big Trader anways?

(Thu Jul 24 1997 18:07)
IDT@hope springs eternal
Glenn and all: I've noticed over the past several sessions that on an intraday basis gold and the greater stock market, DOW etc., are moving in a clear inverse relationship. Whenever the DOW is down gold is up and visa versa. Today was another example. Does this recently emerging pattern have any significance? Is the smart money getting ready to bail out of stocks and get into gold? Or, are the two markets simply pivoting on the same information for the time being?

(Thu Jul 24 1997 18:08)
More foreign Debt
The Fed reported that U.S. government securities held in custody by the Fed for foreign official
and international accounts rose $2.098 billion to $629.980 billion, reflecting what analysts said was a
cessation of foreign liquidation of Treasuries.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 18:08)
Gary North's y2k site has this in it.

Gary North's Y2K Links and Forums

Summary and Comments

( feel free to mail this page )

1997-07-16 00:00:00
NOW READ THIS!!! The Good News Is Really Bad, Says
On July 10, two subcommittees of the House held joint hearings on
the Year 2000 Problem. These were the Subcommittee on
Technology ( Science Committee ) and the Subcommittee on
Government Management, Information, and Technology
( Government Reform and Oversight Committee ) .

Joel Willemssen of the Government Accounting Office ( GAO )
testified as to the present status of the government's y2k repair plans.
He reported on the survey released on June 23, 1997, by the Office
of Management and Budget. This survey was not audited by any
independent agency. It relied 100% on the information provided by
the agencies. Willemssen's report is worth reading. Here are some

The agencies said they would spend a total of $2.75 billion. This is
bound to go higher ( p. 3 ) .

18 of 24 agencies said in May that they would meet the June
deadline for completing the assessment phase. Those that did not
promise: Treasury, Defense, Transporation, Veterans Affairs,
Agency for International Development, and the Nuclear Regulatory
Commission .

Assessment accounts for about 1% of the total cost of a y2k repair
( see the California White Paper: "Government". )

Health & Human Services did not actually meet the deadline ( p. 4 ) .
The Health Care Financing Administration of Medicare has done not
completed its assessment activities.

"As we have pointed out in earlier testimony, if systems that millions
of Americans have come to rely on for regular benefits malfunction,
the ensuing delays could be disatrous." This is not bureaucratic

The agencies' schedules "are leaving no margin of error for
unanticipated schedule delays; 15 of 24 expect to complete
implementation in either November or December of 1999. This
leaves a matter of weeks, at most, if something should require more
work before January 1, 2000."

In short, he is saying, they expect that there will be no major failures
in code revisions for systems totalling millions of lines of code -- in
the case of the Department of Defense, over 350 million lines, in
dozens of arcane languages.

Furthermore, "the agency reports may not be accurate. . ." ( p. 8 ) .

Then comes the capper, the virtual guarantee of an international
collapse of all systems:

"Data exchange. Many agencies exchange data with hundreds if not
thousands of external entities. Unless both parties to any exchange
are year 2000 compliant, information systems and databases may
easily be contaminated by coding embedded in noncompliant
systems. To combat this, agencies must inventory and assess all
internal and external data exchanges, make approrriate notifications
and, if necessary, develop appropriate bridges or filters to maintain
the integrity of replaced or converted systems and the data within
them" ( pp. 5-6 ) .

At the same hearings, Joe M. Thompson of the General Services
Administration admitted the following:

"Since GSA is the business arm of government, success in the Year
2000 means that our industry partners, and other state, local, Federal
and international agencies must also be compliant and ready to
provide seamless communication among all parties. Many of our
partners have not moved rapidly or aggressively enough to assure
that they, too, will be ready on time" ( "Statement of Joe. M.
Thompson," p. 5 ) .

Multiply this by about 200,000 banks worldwide. THERE IS NO
while there is still time for you to take action. That's my conclusion,
anyway. Now, back to Mr. Willemssen's testimony:

"Systems prioritization. It is becoming increasingly clear that agencies
will likely be unable to correct all noncompliant systems before 2000.
. . . contingency plans must be prepared so that core business
functions will continue to be performed even if systems have not been
made compliant" ( p. 6 ) .

The he adds a happy-face conclusion: "It CAN be done, and the
public is depending on us to do it." The first half of his sentence is
obviously a convenient bureaucratic statement of faith: as the Epistle
to the Hebrews puts it, "Now faith is the substance of things hoped
for, the evidence of things unseen" ( Heb. 11:1 ) . The second half is
terrifyingly true: the people are depending on the government to fix it.
Such people are going to have their plans shattered in 2000 and

Return to Category: Government

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Return to Home Page

Lan Man
(Thu Jul 24 1997 18:13)
@Russians talking about war again...
Wonder why the agressors are always calling its warriors/soldiers "PeaceKeeping Forces"?

(Thu Jul 24 1997 18:14)
Terry, Skylark -- You may want to try this for spot gold quotes,
There's other stuff there too.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 18:18)
Steve and all wondering about BT, he was a "mysterious" Asian who posted through someone else's mail all sorts of cryptic forecasts about gold and was a big buyer supposedly. I questioned his ability to remain semantically in character unless he switched interpreters; of course I looked up RJ's skirts too! In any case, many here doubted and many believed. His last forecast for gold to take off had a deadline and just about coincided with the big drop early this month but I should check those posts to be sure. Perhaps his interpreter mistook down for up. Here are some of his pithy sayings preserved in our very own web resource site,

(Thu Jul 24 1997 18:20)
TO ALL: TERRY @OZ 15:34 post provided excellent real time update URL for quotes. His cite works to contact site but if you input into your own system it is html at the end not htm- as it appears printed on his post though it works if you use his post to enter.

Thanks Terry!!!

(Thu Jul 24 1997 18:20)
IDT: I say that there is indeed an inverse relationship and that it is well documented back to at least 1929. I am using it as an indicator for making asset allocations and basic investment decisions.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 18:24)
Glenn : Unless the local was demented, which is doubtful, most probably he traded as an agent for someone else. Is there any way of finding out?

(Thu Jul 24 1997 18:24)
PANDA: Thanks, the server appears to be down. ALL: There apparently is a concern over the Russian Announcement, but I do not understand why. The Russian CB has already committed to buy almost all of the gold mined this year. The banks have been granted permission to deal in gold to facilitate the mining industry and the development of mines - like banks in almost all mining countries. How is this negative?

(Thu Jul 24 1997 18:28)
in math weenie mode
Donald: While I don't know much about Elliot Wave Theory, we should note that 381 is within about 5% of 20^2 ( 20^2=400 ) . Now, if this qualifies as "close" in Elliot Wave Theory, then a 5% interval about 90^2 runs from 7695 to 8505, an interval that includes the squares of 88, 89, 90, 91 and , 92. In other words, at these levels of the Dow, and using that definition of 'close', we are always close to a perfect square. So, I think this particular idea of being close to a squared integer is a non-starter. Math weenie mode off.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 18:29)
Found no Gold but got a good tip on where to look from Clem Spencer along with the tea and the use of his telephone to call home....all on a supposedly deserted Island...go figure....Ain't life GREAT!

(Thu Jul 24 1997 18:37)
IDT - Yes I have noticed the inverse relationship between the DOW and Gold lately. In all honesty I can not say forsure if the DOW will have anything more than a 100 point correction before we hit 9000. I think we will and I would never go long the DOW here but it just doesn't want to go down. I also think that there are alot of other traders, behaps even "Smart Money" who are confussed right now. The DOW feels like it could peak any day now but it goes up everyday. ???

NJ - No the local does not work for someone he is simply demented!

(Thu Jul 24 1997 18:45)

TED--I was wondering if you have ever taken a metal detector out to the island? Newer ones are pretty sophisticated, and I believe reasonably priced.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 18:45)
@rally killers
nomercy: The article you cite provides some insight into my earlier befuddlement about the abortive gold rallies we've had Tuesday and today...thanks. It is a little reminescent of the Blue Jays bullpen. One of these days...years ( ? ) . Good day on the water, Ted?

(Thu Jul 24 1997 18:47)
Everyone should see GLENN'S comment of 17:58/ in it he mentions someone ignoring all bids at 324.7 and selling at 324/Glenn recounted how it created confusion and hit stops but made little sense/UNLESS it is WAll St which doesnt care about bid and ask but wants to drive the price down. The fact that this always happens at the end of the day is further evidence. The fact Glenn said it was a just "local" but the real question is a "local" fronting for who? There is only one reason to ignore bids and sell below and that is to DRIVE THE PRICE DOWN.

Similar things have happened when the S& P futures is under stress in its few near debacles since summer 1996 but there is a bidder bidding miraculously above the market HMM.

When this blows it is really going to blow. Lets hope the increased volatility indicates that there is mkt opposition building to the current and last three years shananigans. When the bubble bursts the govt Wall St can do all they want to no avail. Further, to make matters worse, when the bubble does bust Wall St and Govt united front will crumble as finger pointing goes in both directions. Guess who will win!!

(Thu Jul 24 1997 18:49)
About the hep-cat

Don't mind if a poster gives a good reason why gold is not a proper investment.
If not agreed upon, I try to state my point and why. Then it's over, but rational opinions will remain and may be considered at certain times.
Using outright chest pounding is for baboons. Like the posting of three-two-five; and writting it all over the net, what does it achieve?
The trouble; I think, is that we are feeding his inner needs?
This may be, by the most innocent conclusion -TO BUST OUR CHOPS.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 19:00)
If gold is so archaic and useless why do the CBs and others obsess about it. Maybe if they sell and it becomes important again they look bad. Have noticed almost unbelieveable inverse correlation between PMs and stks. Anybody whats the deal.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 19:01)
Economic Control @ 1920 and 1997 (Canada)
The Gold Standard, The Finance Act, and the Banks ( CANADA )

By 1920 the chartered banks were devoted to the *Finance Act System*. It
provided them with an assured, low-cost source of paper currency - an
alternative to the *Central Banking* mechanism which in more developed
economies, functioned as a *lender of last resort* for banks.

They did not really like to borrow, lest they appear *weak*; nevertheless
they valued the chance to do so. The banks, therefore, resisted suggest-
ions that Canada should set up its own *Central Bank*. What ?, they asked
did the dominion need with such a thing.?

Only the Royal Bank showed some interest. Nothing was done. And when the
economy contracted in 1920-2, several banks found that they had over-
extended themselves in the inflationary atmosphere of 1916-20. For that
sort of difficulty the mechanism of the Finance Act was no solution,
and the banks *resorted* to a much *older* medicine..MERGER.

The weaker banks, such as Molson's and Merchant's, were absorbed by
stronger institutions such as the Bank of Montreal.

Exchange rates, therefore, moved away from the par rates which before
1914 had been fixed by the comparative gold contents of the various
national monies.

The price of the United States dollar changed little until 1919-20,
when it rose from $1.0138 to $1.19 Canadian. The pound, however, fell
sharply. In 1913, on average, a pound cost $4.853 Canadian; by 1920 the
price of a pound was only $4.0757 Canadian.

Although the dominion did not leave gold for the sake of financing the
war effort, it came to welcome its new freedom to manipulate the money
supply. Nor was the Ottawa exchequer the only beneficiary; thanks to the
new provisions of the Finance Act, the BRITISH GOVERNMENT was able to
borrow large sums from the CANADIAN CHARTERED BANKS, who at once
presented the BRITISH short-term obligations to the Canadian Department
of Finance for *discounting*.

Canadian banks were accustomed to hold funds in New York and London,
from which centres they could obtain help in case of need. Under war-
time conditions there was no guarantee that this would be possible.
Hence the need for some domestic *lender of last resort*

In later years, Sir Thomas White would heatedly deny that Canada's war
finance had been inflationary. Certainly Canada did not deliberately
finance the war by printing money - at least, not to any great extent.
Nor did Ottawa itself borrow much from the banks. It merely continued
the tradition of borrowing from the public for extraordinary outlays.

With the end of gold convertibility in 1914, and with the arrangements
by which banks could borrow newly printed dominion notes on demand, this
restraint was removed.

Sooooo, is the future of deflation the natural direction, considering
the 1980's and early 1990's, off shore labour, downsizing, youth
unemployment, unemployment, under-employment, etc. etc. Attack on every,
and all, social safety nets, in the name of The Global Economy.
With all the cut backs, it appears to suggest a desperate act, to get
out from under a desperate economic situation. Certainly not an economy
that shares the wealth with all the citizen's that created the wealth.

In Canada to-day, there is an issue being discussed, that a person that
has a job, should in fact contribute, free. overtime hours worked, as a
thank you to the boss, for having a job. ( Interesting eh! ) Keeps
inflation down maybe, or is it more likely, a deflationary tactic.
( like a reduction in pay ? ) ( longer hours, same pay, is this inflation? )

(Thu Jul 24 1997 19:11)
Donald: I understand the megatrends between gold and the stock indexes such as the DOW. That on a long term basis they generaly move in opposite directions is well established. However, I've rarely seen such close tracking in their prices that they make the same moves within the time frame of one trading day. I was just wondering if this might be of some significance or if it should be assigned to the random events circular file.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 19:20)
Over the past year, I can remember several times that RJ, George Cole, myself and several others have suggested that gold was going down soon and smart investors might sell some. I was never the subject of serious criticism because I was going against the 'proven solution'.

IRREGULARPOSTER's comment that naysayers will be persecuted is BS. John hepcat is not criticized for his prediction; it's turned out to be generally good, although totally useless for my purposes. He is criticized because he acts like a jerk. I'm sure he is really a nice guy. RJ ( 13:49 ) said it better than I can.

DONALD.. Will you please repost the Dow/gold ratio.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 19:23)
Roebear, All: I am not sure the posts from BT where he gave a date are necessarily authentic....

Does anyone have an idea why the dow and gold seem to have this negative correlation?? Are there hedges out there long dow and short gold???


(Thu Jul 24 1997 19:31)
Auric ( 18:45 ) No, I haven't taken a metal detector to Scaterie Island...
Would one fit in a kayak??...The iland has been deserted since the mid 1940's but recently an old land owner ( Clem Spencer ) Took the Canadian Government to court and prevailed in reclaiming his property...He was "out there" today and showed me where most of the ship wrecks occurred so I think it's now time for a detector if it'll fit in the kayak...Other than Sable Island,Scaterie is the most ship wrecked Island in the Canadian Maritimes.....

(Thu Jul 24 1997 19:32)
Because of it's diversity I find this a very stimulating Forum and because of that I think it will survive for a very long time.Sure there are the occasional lapses in decorum during the heat of verbal battle but I am confident the fair- mindedness and
generous intellectual capacity of most participants will ensure a democratic equilibrium in the final analysis. An old Scots saying goes something like:"I wish the gift the Gods would gi'e us to see ourselves as others see us." Sure some egos have been
pricked...some characteristics mocked ...some old and dubious Goldbug rhetoric called to question.......but maybe we take ourselves too seriously at times...become to cliquey. Goldbugs are like any other "herd" with just the same characteristics.... and
that is one of the dangers especially for novices at such a waterhole as this. There is no doubt that Hepcat has been a force to be reckoned with bringing forth some excellent and disappointing respones with his postings. I have to agree with EB that his
"Burrito residue" line had me rolling in the aisles too! Diplomacy and manners he may be lacking but some literary talent he does seem to have! Does the problem perhaps lie as much with some of us as with the Hepcat?Good Luck in your decision Bart.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 19:35)
@ $324 Conspiracy

Maybe that $324 is a significant number on the charts; to give the little the shorts confidence to push things down a bit more, that is before the big players change direction; short term. I must be one of those conspiracy nuts.
I laughed when a newsrelease about this Cunanan guy -post mortem- was saying he was passing gold coins to avoid capture. Lots of that negative hype about gold lately, but always appealing to human interest. I wonder why so many such coincidents of late?

(Thu Jul 24 1997 19:39)
When I tuned in to Kitco this morning, I noticed that gold was up big. By the end of the day, all of the $6-7 advance had died. I was hoping to see some comments posted which might explain the situation and help me decide to get on board or get off. Right after I bought a small position due to the gold increase, metals started falling and I was able to cancel another buy order, which saved me a few bucks.

Meanwhile there were no posting on Kitco with relevant news, perhaps because those serious about gold had decided to go elsewhere. I hope not. This forum is important to me as a source of valuable opinions and information during the day, so I thank BART for the pain and suffering he must go thru.

I want to encourage those with important news and comments to post them out where others can benefit.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 19:47)
First a question: are these spikes in bullion price called flags? what does that mean?, What is a flag?... Without your help, I see the recent activity as bullsih, but I am not sure why! I understand that a progressive rise and a big run up is better. But this "febrile" activity could be good... or is it?
Second: hepcat...sirocco and the aggressive responses and "fake" handles. The BEST is not to respond. Who cares about what they say. Ignore them. If you aggress them in return they will keep bugging this board. The WORSE is to censure: very bad solution. They will come back in some other ways, IMHO. That will make everythin worse.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 19:52)
full of bull
the old bull's bleeding
is the young bull's red flag

(Thu Jul 24 1997 19:52)
motion sickness
This action in gold is making me nauseous. Maybe the triple fudge peanut butter brownie sundae didn't help matters but the late day sell off in the yellow put me into the spew zone.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 20:03)
Joke of the day
At the risk of usurping Hepcat's controversial space on this forum and inflaming yet another segment of this bullish community, I post yet another story for the edification of those of you of a more jocular bent.

On the Pope's last visit to New York, he was riding in his limo
and he asked the driver if he could take the wheel for a while. The
driver thought this was an odd request but be stopped and changed
places with the Pope.

The pontiff pulled onto the freeway and began to open it up. After
a while he was doing 90 mph and saw the blue flashing lights in
the rear mirror.

When the officer pulled up and looked over the situation he
radioed his sergeant for instructions. "Sarge, I have a very
important person pulled over for speeding and I don't know what
to do. "

"Who is it, Kennedy again?" asked the superior officer.

"No! This one is really important!"

"Who is it? The chief of the UN?"

"No really important!"

"The Mayor?"

"Even more important than that!"

"The Governor?"

"Sarge, you won't believe this. I don't know who he is, but he
must be damned important! He has the Pope as a chauffeur."

(Thu Jul 24 1997 20:07)
Ted, its good that your arms have recovered to the point that you are able to post. I thought an arm transplant might be in order. Lads and Lasses, remember the old adage, when you are are becoming most discouraged with gold that is the time to be buying. Sell when everyone wants it. Gold's been around since the Garden of Eden. Its not going any place and in the long run it will not be bashed about by mere paper.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 20:13)
RON: Thanks for the math. I know it sounds wierd but people do tend to make make mental promises to themselves that involve round numbers. George Cole is thinking about 8300. The square of 91 is 8281 so everyone should be out by then "just to be sure". You never hear anyone say "I'm going to lose 11 pounds this month". It's just human nature, and a market is nothing more than a collection of humans.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 20:20)
Where is Geo Cole with more commentary/ especially re the again late raid on gold. Geo what do you think of Glenn's comments re a trader ignoring the bid and selling below the bid against his own apparent economic self interest at he end of the day?
Geo comments or anyone?

Space Cadet
(Thu Jul 24 1997 20:21)
Just wondering if anybody out there involved with mining companies are interested in feasibility study of sending robotic ( like mars rover ) precious metal miners out to the near earth asteroids. Conceivably the life cycle of these rocks ( temperature, gravity, pressures ) allows for pure metal to be existent in these rocks just waiting to be picked up.
The investment would be in putting the rocket together and getting the thing up there, thing is the world is awash with cheap rockets ( ex-ICBM's ) . As NASA is for hire there will be space on a space station for rent and a shuttle for bringing the precious stuff down to earth.
Only problem the sheer quantities may swamp the only market we have. Well at least the earth wouldn't have to suffer strip mining and mass contamination with cyanide tailings any longer.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 20:28)
Prophet @ Canada Mutual Fund
July 24 1997, CANADA
Thousands gather to hear mutual fund prophet:
Sir John Templeton, 83, spoke to 9,000 shareholders.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 20:29)
TW - Who said that it was against his own economic interest??? I certainly did NOT! If you are short 50 contracts and then sell 5 more $0.80 below the market to create confussion and the market follows thru then you have made alot more then selling the 5 contracts at the higher price. The little extra you lost by selling way below the market was more than offset by the amount you gained by the shorts you all ready had. I do not know how short he was but it was up there. It may have even been 100 contracts.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 20:34)
Why Gold?
Well, it looks like the things are getting back to "normal" and one can
again read this forum without too much turbulence in the air.

Glenn: Yes, the inverse relationship between the DOW and Gold is very
noticeable. I am glad that you confirmed my feeling that the wide
fluctuation is mostly due to a short trading. I understand that thats
the way you guys make money ( but I still hate it! ;- ) With my limited
knowledge I dare to make the statement that the increased range of daily
swings indicate the things will turn around. Its like geyser gradually
building a strength trying to go up  the more it goes up more shorts
are trying to make a fast profit taking it back down  but eventually it
will cross the threshold and it will keep going. I would be more
concerned if the swings were minimum because it would indicate there were
no buyers to push it up ( and shorts trying to take advantage of it. )

Yesterday there was a question why would you put money into gold related
investment. No, I wont make a recommendation, I just try to explain my
investment philosophy. Let me say up front that I am not strictly a
"gold bug" though I recently moved part of money into gold mutual funds.
I still have about 30% of my money in stocks ( half of it in
international ) , about 25% in bonds, 25% in gold related issues and 20%
cash ready to move. I will gradually reduce stocks and go more into cash
ready to move it somewhere else ( or back to the stock market ) .

I am still making money ( even if my gold mutuals go down ) , and it was
nice to see that I was making money even when US market dropped ( and gold
or international markets went up ) . I decided to start moving money away
from stocks because I dont want to guess to the last day when the things
turn around - I prefer safety to greed. Part of my decision is based on
"feeling" ( so far for the last 10 years it worked for me pretty good,
making about 15-20% annual return on my investment ) , part of it is based
on my life experiences.

Some of my justification for coming "trouble" in stock market:
1. Market is overvalued and fueled by greed when everybody "must" be in
it without having a slight understanding of what things like P/E, etc..
2. International market - a part of the reason for accelerated growth
in the US Stock market - is heading for trouble ( as many of you pointed
today )
3. Technology issues which drive the market will be heading for some
unpleasant surprises. Fast turn around and aging of technology is
forcing companies to replace technology so fast that the return on
investment on IT is declining ( spending more on it than it is brings ) -
I know I work in IT industry.
4. Y2K issue will put a dent to economy - again I work on Y2K issues
and I am confident itll happen.

Some of my justification for leaning toward gold:
1. I believe that we underestimate shift in power in international
arena. I do believe that the Far East, especially China is becoming a
future power and I would not write off Russia ( as we conveniently did ) .
Anytime this shift in power occurs it brings a resistance, turbulence
in financial markets, and many time war conflicts. In times like this
paper does not mean much. By the way did you notice that the above
countries are buying ( not selling? )
2. I was born at the end of WWII in Europe. I cherish a long peace
period without a major conflicts, but nothing convinced me that the
human nature changed and we entered a period of lasting harmony. As a
matter of fact the latest trend of NATO expansion, EU, etc. will just
bring the trouble under one roof and there is nothing more damaging to
financial well being than family in disarray ( or going through divorce )

Will it happen tomorrow? No! Will it happen in a short time? Some of it
Yes! As I said, I am looking for a long trend. What happened to old
investment advice "you make money in a long run"?!

Then, maybe I am just plain wrong, but its my money and I wont blame
anybody just because you told me 3-2-5. And I could go short on it.
Sorry for my rumbling but I hope it is related to gold.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 20:42)
Glenn: If the pit can get confused by someone selling below market price, it does not encourage respect about the capability of the pit. This certainly could not have been the first time that such a strategy to run the stops would have been attempted.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 20:46)
From London on Russian Gold Sales.

Russia to review economic reforms
Russian President Boris Yeltsin has issued several decrees before a cabinet
meeting to review ministers' efforts to introduce economic and social
reforms. Yeltsin, who held talks with First Deputy Prime Minister Boris
Nemtsov and other leaders, signed decrees on Wednesday aimed at
relieving chronic delays in payment of state salaries, clamping down on tax
debtors and increasing gold exports.

Lan Man
(Thu Jul 24 1997 20:49)
Closing Bell - Precious Metals
COMEX and NYMEX precious metals futures ended mostly higher Thursday, after wide intraday swings in gold and silver, on very high volume in COMEX gold trading.

"Fund short covering and local buying drove gold higher intraday, and silver was dragged up as a result, but it all fell apart again around $330.00, leaving little net change on the day in gold," Pioneer Futures analyst Scott Meyers said. "The bottom line is precious metals are still weak, and rallies should be sold into," he said.

Support in August gold held early in the day just above $322.00, a level which had provided resistance for most of the previous two week, and locals took the opportunity to reverse and go long, while funds covered short positions and rolled into the December contract, traders said. But around the $330.00 level, which had proved to be resistance earlier this week, locals and funds turned sellers into the close.

Volume was boosted by heavy rollovers from the August into the December contract. August gold's first notice day is next Thursday, August 31. But COMEX gold open interest has declined to 206,207 contracts in the past week, from an 18 month high at 222,069 lots early in July, as funds have covered record net short positions.

Meanwhile, COMEX September silver ended down 1.5 cents at $4.280 an ounce, after again running into resistance around $4.40, and being dragged back down by the action in gold.

But NYMEX October platinum ended up $4.00 at $412.20 an ounce, with the contract's five-day moving-average climbing back above its 21-day and 55-day average this week, signaling a possible resumption of the uptrend seen earlier this year.

"Although most of the early 1980's saw platinum trade with a $30-$50 premium to gold, it is worthwhile to compare the current economic scenario to the situation in the late 1980's, when platinum typically maintained a $100-$150 premium over gold," Platinum Guild International analyst Aran Murphy said. "Both periods displayed characteristics of strong economic growth and low inflation, relative economic stability, and concern over near-term PGM supplies," he said.

In overnight news, Japanese traders said they expected the first Russian platinum shipments in six months would reach Japan by Monday next week. The first palladium shipments arrived last week. Meanwhile, Russian metal export agency Almaz, was again seen offering palladium in the spot market in Europe overnight, but traders said the problem was that not enough Russian metal was being supplied to meet pent up demand.
For the full text story, see

COMEX - 100 troy oz _ dollars per troy oz.

Aug97 322.80 329.70 322.30 323.80 ... 414.50 314.60
Oct97 324.50 331.80 323.80 325.50 +.10 426.50 316.80
Dec97 325.70 333.00 325.50 327.10 +.20 456.50 318.50
Feb98 328.00 334.00 327.80 329.20 +.20 424.00 322.50
Apr98 331.20 331.20 331.20 331.30 +.10 408.40 325.00
Jun98 333.60 336.80 332.20 333.60 ... 470.00 327.50
Est. Sales 56932

COMEX - 5,000 troy oz. _ cents per troy oz.
Jul97 425.00 425.00 425.00 425.40 _1.50 631.00 418.50
Sep97 427.00 445.00 427.00 428.00 _1.50 576.00 418.00
Dec97 433.00 450.00 433.00 434.20 _1.40 701.90 424.00
Mar98 451.50 452.50 439.00 440.40 _1.30 573.00 432.00
Dec98 459.00 467.00 459.00 458.30 _1.30 752.10 448.50
Est. Sales 8824

----------------------HIGH GRADE COPPER-----------------------
COMEX - 25,000 lbs. cents per lb.
Jul97 108.60 109.90 107.40 109.90 +2.00 123.10 83.40
Aug97 106.10 107.70 106.10 107.60 +1.95 120.90 84.10
Sep97 106.00 107.90 105.70 107.80 +2.20 120.50 83.00
Oct97 105.10 105.20 105.00 106.70 +2.20 117.20 84.50
Dec97 103.60 105.40 103.50 105.30 +2.00 114.80 83.75
Mar98 101.90 102.00 101.80 103.20 +1.80 109.30 85.00
Est. Sales 7412

NYMEX - 100 troy oz _ dollars per troy oz
Sep97 180.00 185.50 176.25 185.50 +6.00 192.00 128.75
Dec97 171.50 176.00 171.50 178.50 +5.00 182.50 120.25
Est. Sales 542

COMEX - 50 troy oz _ dollars per troy oz.
Jul97 421.00 429.00 421.00 427.20 +4.50 473.80 353.50
Oct97 407.00 413.00 405.20 412.20 +4.00 429.00 355.50
Jan98 397.00 401.00 396.00 400.20 +2.00 424.00 360.00
Est. Sales 1164

(Thu Jul 24 1997 20:51)
Letter to the Editor of Financial Times:

Gold loses glister in modern world


From Mr Ludwin Fischer


The FT Guide to Gold ( July 21 ) , though
informative, does not seem to be in tune with the
times. In view of the recent central bank gold
disposals alluded to by Robert Chote, his ensuing
statement that most central bankers are still reluctant to dispose of an asset
considered a hedge against inflation ( what inflation? ) and not someone
else's liability sounds like playing Glenn Miller to Techno-eager kids.

As he correctly points out, by having sold more than two-thirds of its gold
reserves Australia's Reserve Bank acted like an ordinary investor. And so
are the other central banks which are modernising the management of their
reserve portfolio, including those of the "really big stockpilers".

A prime example is the recent Swiss National Bank law reform, geared to
increase asset revenue by revaluing gold reserves closer to market price,
allowing a higher proportion of foreign exchange reserves, the use of
derivatives in their management and reducing gold coverage of circulating
money from 45 to 25 per cent ( a revision bearing no link to the funding of
the Solidarity Foundation ) .

Similarly, Mr Chote omits mention of the recent controversy in Germany
over the proposed sale of part of its gold reserves to meet the Maastricht
deficit criterion. Perhaps it won't be too far-fetched to expect some mega
nails in gold's coffin in the not-too-distant future.

Ludwin Fischer,
9, place Grenus,
CH 1201 Geneva,

(Thu Jul 24 1997 20:58)
Two for One
Here are two Gold Vs Xau Ratio charts. Any comments? and

(Thu Jul 24 1997 20:59)
@ The Public Library
Lights out at the library. Will check back tomorrow.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 21:00)
Glenn : It doen't make sense. This line is from your earlier post " No doupt it hit stops and then thous traders had to follow tru with more aburd prints." If the local was sharp, were the traders that dumb?

(Thu Jul 24 1997 21:05)
@...Glenn's comment on floor trader selling below bid
A modern financial system relies on fair prices. If COMEX is prepared to publish gold prices with full, true, and plain disclosure it must observe the ask and bid spread and the weight of each side of the bid.

The exchange should monitor any gerrymandering or management of price by sales below bid or purchases above ask at any instance. The securities and futures exchanges and the SEC and FTC have an obligation to investors to secure trust in the market price of securities traded.

Decision support systems can be employed to uncover traders who operate on a pretense of arbitrage but are simply ( as seemingly indicated in Glenn's post ) manipulating price. There is a fine distinction between price management and arbitrage.

The shorts can't make any money fighting the paper BULL run in the world's greatest marketplace so they moved down the street to dump trading tactics on - what appears to be - a loosely audited gold market.

London appears to be a Big Boys club and COMEX appears to play three blind mice while the shorty cats dominate the price action in New York.

The shorts will eventually get squeezed to death or tire of declining profits in the gold market in the absence of major CB dumps and as bottom consolidation forms a firm spring-loaded base to launch price northward.


(Thu Jul 24 1997 21:05)
Problems mount in Korea:
Borrowing: Korea eases overseas curbs


By John Burton in Seoul

South Korea yesterday eased curbs on overseas corporate borrowing and
injected new funds into the banking system to prevent a credit shortage
and more big bankruptcies, after the near-collapse of the Kia car group.

The moves came as Moody's, the US credit rating agency, indicated it may
downgrade Korea's sovereign rating as it lowered the rating outlook of
four important government banks to negative.

Worries exist that the near-bankruptcy of Kia, Korea's eighth-biggest
conglomerate, may trigger a chain of corporate collapses as heavily
exposed domestic financial institutions grow cautious and withdraw funding
to highly leveraged industrial groups.

The government said it would abolish restrictions that prevent
conglomerates getting high-interest foreign loans with a rate 100 basis
points above Libor. It would also allow all Korean companies to issue
securities abroad instead of limiting it to those with an international credit
rating of BBB or above.

The government will provide Won1,500bn ( $1.7bn ) to 61 commercial and
merchant banks during the next two weeks to ease any capital shortages.
This follows another Won1,500bn injected into the banking system last

Moody's said it had downgraded the outlook for the four state-owned
banks to reflect a negative outlook it recently issued for Korea's sovereign
rating of single-A1, the fifth-highest grade in Moody's 16-stage scale.

The banks - Korea Development Bank, the Industrial Bank of Korea, the
Export-Import Bank, and the Housing & Commercial Bank - are mainly
responsible for the government's overseas borrowing requirements to
finance industry.

Moody's said the action was "the result of the vulnerability posed by the
deteriorating financial condition of Korea's corporate and banking sectors,
and the substantial rise in short-term external debt.

"The outlook for the country's rating also incorporates the accelerating
deterioration of North Korea and the increased likelihood of a sudden
collapse," Moody's noted.

The international credit ratings of Korean commercial banks, much lower
than the country's sovereign rating, could deteriorate further after some
earlier downgrades following the collapse of several big conglomerates.

On Wednesday, Standard & Poor's, the US credit rating agency, put five
of the six commercial banks it follows in Korea on a Credit Watch with
negative implications. They included Korea First, Korea Exchange, Hanil,
Shinhan and Korea Long-Term Credit.

The threat of a possible downgrade in Korea's sovereign rating comes as
the government faces mounting public pressure to offer subsidised loans to
Kia and other troubled conglomerates.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 21:12)
@full of it .com

(Thu Jul 24 1997 21:18)
Philippines: Falling peso hits San Miguel


By Justin Marozzi

San Miguel, the Philippine food and beverage group, is one of the most
prominent blue-chip losers from the recent depreciation of the peso,
adding to investors' negative sentiment on the group.

The 14 per cent price cut on its top-selling beer announced late last month,
together with the de facto devaluation of the peso two weeks ago, has hit
the group's share price - San Miguel B shares are 22 per cent down from
a month ago.

The group argues that the limited depreciation of the peso - it closed at
28.5 to the dollar yesterday, down 7 per cent from its level before the
central bank surrendered to speculators - will contain the impact on profits.

At PLDT, the former telecoms monopoly, by contrast, a one peso
depreciation translates to an additional net income of 500m pesos
( $17.54m ) .

"For every one peso forex decline, there's a little over 100m pesos erosion
at the bottom line," says Mr Albert de Larrazabal, senior vice-president of
treasury at San Miguel. "That reflects higher raw materials cost on the
imports side and to some extent also our international operations. As they
are at the loss-making stage, those losses will be correspondingly higher."

Faced with flagging domestic beer sales, the group has thrown itself into an
international expansion programme. Setting up in China was proceeding
according to plan, said Mr de Larrazabal, but problems had been
experienced in Indonesia, related to political unrest earlier in the year.

Imports - of malt, paper, aluminium and soyabean meal for the food
business - are crucial to the group's beer division, which accounts for
about 50 per cent of group sales.

Mr de Larrazabal says that of the group's foreign debt of about $250m, 90
per cent is long term and has not been affected by punitively high interest
rates, which were brought on by the central bank raising its key overnight
borrowing rate to as high as 32 per cent in order to defend the peso
against speculators. Some gains will be made on the group's exports of
coconut oil and enhanced margins overseas, he adds.

"Of the blue chips, San Miguel is definitely one of the worst affected by
the slide in the peso," says one analyst. "But we don't yet know how much
can be passed on to customers on the food side. Clearly, on the beer side,
the lion's share of the group's business, they have no choice because they
have only just cut prices and so margins will be squeezed."

Paribas Asia Equity is downgrading its 1998 earnings forecast by 8 per
cent to take into account the price cut and a weaker peso.

One indication of fraying tempers caused by a tough domestic beer market
came over the weekend, with the raid by Asia Brewery and police of a
San Miguel beer plant to recover crates and bottles. It claimed they were
being held by San Miguel to stifle competition.

Asia Brewery launched a $4m suit against the group. Not to be outdone,
San Miguel said that it would file a countersuit.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 21:20)
DONALD: Thank you for posting the Letter to the FT. Unfortunately, I believe it sets forth in a striking way the case against CB continued ownership of gold reserves. It also probably represents the mindset of a good number of constituents, and why it is hard for a CB currently to justify retaining gold. In today's financial environment. It does indeed sound like like playing Glenn Miller to Techno-eager kids.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 21:23)
EBN Gold up .48 ( ? ) and Silver down 2 centavos...Roger...over and OUT...

(Thu Jul 24 1997 21:27)
Am in the midst of a delicate brain transplant...BBL....dude..

(Thu Jul 24 1997 21:36)
A good night joke for you all.

A couple, well into their nineties, stood in court before a judge asking for a divorce. They had been married for seventy-five years.

The judge asked them how long they had been having a problem. They responded that a week after the honeymoon they had each realized that the marriage was a mistake. The judge was astounded "Why did you wait until now, seventy-five years later, to get a divorce?" "Well, your honor, we thought it best to wait until the children were dead"

(Thu Jul 24 1997 21:53)
BYRON: Thank you for posting the XAU/Gold ratio charts. First time I have seen it charted and it is very helpful.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 22:01)
Inflation @ Canada you say, could be, eh!
Conference Board of Canada said:
"Business faces none of these restraint; profits and retained earnings
are high, equity positions are strong, and business confidence is good,
with interest rates low, businesses are on a spending spree"

Also,New Brunswick, government is on a spending spree, with tax money.

The New Brunswick government has loaned Mary Jane Irving-granddaughter
of the late Billionaire K.C.Irving, $20 Million, from government coffers
to build her Master Packaging Box Plant in Dieppe.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 22:01)
Turning out the lights
I just adore all of you who make this site so interesting. Thelma, Emma, and I think it's the best site on the Net. Of course, Thelma's a little on the shy side, and Emma's husband Frank has forbade her to post, so you won't be hearing from them any time soon! But I know I speak for all of us - goodnight, sweet dreams, and may all our kruggies be worth more in the morning!

(Thu Jul 24 1997 22:15)
It amazes me that most participants of this forum pay little or no attention to the biggest event which will increase the price of gold and WILL shred the stock market. "The Year 2000" problem will have devastating effects on company balance books starting next year. Believe me gentelmen it will affect all of us very soon. Local gold bulls talk very little about it, how then can we expect the bears to talk about it. We should be educating all investors because the problem is inevitable and will occur the latest by January 1, 2000.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 22:15)
Well, what can I say? Greed comes to the Internet.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 22:19)
@come'n get it!
Your platinum is served sir...... :- )

(Thu Jul 24 1997 22:24)
The bug bar
by Susan Adams
HERE ARE THREE things to worry about as the millennium approaches:
 It's going to cost U.S. businesses about $300 billion to reprogram their computers to recognize that the year 2000
is not in fact 1900.
Probably half of the industries with large computer systems won't get the conversion job done by midnight
Dec. 31, 1999. Such a failure could cause massive
disruptions in the economy as of 12:01 a.m. Jan. 1, 2000,
affecting consumers and businesses that may be unable to
get bank balances, hospital records or plane tickets.
 The prospect of this mess has lawyers drooling.
Steven Hock, who heads the 24-lawyer "year 2000" team at San Francisco's Thelen, Marrin, Johnson &Bridges, can
smell $1 trillion in legal and liability costs. "This thing is
going to be on the same scale litigation wise as the environment, the S&L crisis and asbestos combined," says Hock.
Hear Wesley Pittman, a plaintiff lawyer in Panama City, Fla.: "It's the biggest class action I can imagine!" He ticks off the potential litigants: burned consumers, customers suing computer vendors, investors launching class action suits over stock market declines stemming from business losses.
Rejoices scorched-earth plaintiff lawyer Melvyn Weiss of
shareholder class action fame: "There is plenty of potential
for injury and for litigation."
The only millennium bug lawsuit filed to date has been settled under seal, according to Warren S. Reid, an Encino, Calif. consultant who advised the plaintiff.
That case involved an international magazine publisher that
claimed its outside computer services firm failed to supply
it with an adequately updated software system. The computer company paid more than $4 million to settle.
Where there's business for plaintiff lawyers, there's
business for defense lawyers, too. At least a dozen law
firms, including New York's LeBoeuf, Lamb, Greene &
MacRaeand Cleveland's Arter & Hadden, are already
billing big hours, advising terrified clients about how to
protect themselves.
July 28, 1997 Issue Forbes Inc. 1997

(Thu Jul 24 1997 22:30)

Microsoft hurt by ForEx turbulance? Nah, it could never happen! Say it isn't so!

(Thu Jul 24 1997 22:35)
Zeke, Cobol -- But Joe Batapatapaglia says the stock boom will go on for several more years! Besides, 2000 is two and a half years away! That's, like forever! :- ) ) And Joe sayz, BUY! :- ) )

( New age, short term thinking )

(Thu Jul 24 1997 22:41)
BuY stox....Goodnight ALL....

(Thu Jul 24 1997 22:42)
@ lighter moment
Kitco has gold down .40; EBN has gold up .48...whom you you believe?

Reminds me of lighter moment...overheard in English class..
Teacher: "What does bovine mean?" Student: "Holy cow, how should
I know?" ( Must have been a Phil Rizzuto fan! )

(Thu Jul 24 1997 22:42)
John Disney -- Does Western Deep report earnings today, ( I mean on Friday your time ) ? In general, do the S.A. mines state their cost of production in their earnings reports?

(Thu Jul 24 1997 22:43)
TED -- If I do that, I will tank the market! :- ) )

Good night!

(Thu Jul 24 1997 22:44)
@the street
Re:your 22:01 posting
The government and various corporate sources are reporting this almost
perfect world scenario whereby profits are up ,inflation is down and
retained earnings are up.Too bad that the news has yet to hit the street
as I'm sure the people there would like to know that they are free
to spend their money ( that they don't have ) ;unless they have plastic.There
are two worlds operating here and it's unlikely that the ones that don't
have are able to support the one's thart do.No inflation IMHO.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 22:47)
I wonder if some slick lawyer will decide to take Joe to court for professional negligence and failure to fullfill his fiduciary responsibility. It is a common knowledge that year 2000 will bring some serious disruption to world economy and for Joe not to consider this fact in his investment advice is negligent.
Also, what about mutual fund managers? They all will be sued by investors!

(Thu Jul 24 1997 22:48)
RJ We have heard from one of our war correspondents ( and thank you Glenn ) , now can we hear from the west coast? Was that you RJ shorting all that yellow, you naughty fellow? !; ) )

(Thu Jul 24 1997 22:50)
Hey, you wink too hard and your chin falls off!
!; ) ) AH That's better!

(Thu Jul 24 1997 22:53)
Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )

Attention all Martians, the above URL is NEW.
PS FSAGX pulls into the lead!

(Thu Jul 24 1997 23:01)
KGB Commissar

Had my feet up on the desk, leaning back in the chair as the sun, shining through the window, warmed my face nearly as much as the drop in gold has warmed my new shorts. Once again, I was chortling at the WSJ and the importance ascribed to the stately words of AG, who imagines himself protector and leader of the Way. And what a wonderful Way it is, but meaningless to those of us with the security only several storage units filled with platinum can bring. All the better that the platinum bore the likeness, stamped in each bar, of Czar Nicholas Roamnov, a hapless soul whose greatest sin was to rub his wealth in the faces of the squalid masses with a bit too much enthusiasm.

Yes, the day was bright, and once again, matched my mood. A hummingbird was hovering outside my office window, nearly motionless except for the blur of wings. I could swear the little guy winked and gave a friendly grin before fluttering to its next nectar nirvana. Its a hard thing to do, recognizing the grin of a hummingbird, it takes a keen eye and a sober perspective. It was a gleeful, almost Disneyesque smile on its little tubular proboscis, with an added slyness which seemed imply that it had some secret piece of information from his peculiar hummingbird world that, if only could be taught to mankind, would give greater meaning and understanding to our confusing existence. Or maybe the big bug was simply plastered and bleary eyed after a two day nectar binge that has erased all reason and replaced it with the same vapid grin that all drunks seem to get after slamming down five or six tequila shooters, and right before getting into some really serious drinking.

Screw him, I thought. What does he know about anything? Flittering from blossom to blossom sucking sickly sweet nectar until its belly becomes distended and looks more like Ralph Cramdon than the universal symbol of grace and beauty, and then only to micturate to make room for more. Ive got better things to do than idly muse over avifauna of this ilk.

Preparing once again to jump back in the pits and do some real trading, I spied a vaguely familiar face four floors down and across the street. I grabbed my binoculars - kept close at hand to monitor the raising or lowering of the pretty lasses hem lines over the years, after all one must keep abreast of these things. With a start, I realized why this figure was so familiar; when last we met, I left with his wallet, his Rolex ( which actually turn out to be a Romex ) , and a fat envelope stuffed with cash and directions to and enormous horde of 80 year old platinum.

My fine Rooskie friend was with another of his kind, a mean looking fellow built like a fireplug. That his partner was also Russian was evident in the cruelly Slavic features rudely stamped on his face, and the telltale single eyebrow that reached from one side of his head to the other. Hanging off the arms of each of these menacing characters were a couple of blond chippies, with obviously augmented breasts proudly displayed in sweaters at least three sizes to small. The group was rounded off by a fifth member, who I recognized as one of the local property managers who was in charge locating office space for new tenants.

I couldnt believe my eyes, these clowns were trying to set up shop? Here? On my turf? Ha! Not likely. I called security and asked for Rocco, a brute of a man that looked like a refuge from professional wrestling, and entirely as surly as his name implies. Rocco had no love lost for the Russians and was of the same opinion as Patton, General George S. when he said, "we should have fought those bastards in 1945 when we had the army in place to do it."

"Yeah, Rocco, RJ here. Ive got a piece of work for you." His voice came back, like nails thrown up against a corrugated tin shed, "You name it, Arj, whatever you need". I told him there were a couple of Russians across the street with two underage hookers and it looks as though they are thinking of moving in to our neighborhood." I let this outrage sink in and waited for Rocco to reach the boiling point. When it came, his voice had a frightening calmness. "I know just what to do Mr. R, leave it to me". I settled back in my chair to watch the events unfold, knowing I had set loose a fundamental force of nature that, once unleashed, would move inexorably to its grim conclusion, like a tsunami with a vendetta.

The local TV stations were abuzz this evening with the story of two Russians arrested with three ounces of cocaine, two concealed Glock 9mm handguns, and a pipe bomb. That one of the girls with them when they were arrested was the seventeen year old daughter of a state senator, helped them not in the least. Serves em right, the sons of bitches. They never paid a dime for all that lend lease equipment that did more to win WW II, than any drunken band of Cossacks. This is my back yard and I put out no welcome signs. If you want to play here, be ready to play for keeps. Besides, it wouldnt do to have these fellows so close. Im still holding better than three hundred thousand ounces of their platinum and Ive had it long enough to consider it mine. Yep, just another day in the neighborhood, and tomorrow will be a fine day to count my profits from my gold shorts.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 23:04)
RJ, you're in good spritis tonight

(Thu Jul 24 1997 23:17)
The fun is really starting...........
Roebear - My shorts were already in. As for today, it did look very squirrely on the close. The entire drop happened in the last ten minutes and gold didnt settle until almost half an hour after the close. Glenns explanation seems valid and, lacking specific information yet, I will defer to him as to the reason for the drop. I will know more tomorrow. Im still under the weather and left the office after the market closed. I did see a report that the Reserve Bank of South Africa was buying gold today. This can only be unwinding of some of their hedge positions, why else would the CB of the worlds largest gold producing nation, buy the stuff? I think $300 is a lock. The failure today was decisive and only lower prices will bring in the longs. I fear silver might share the downside with gold, its failure today was more complete than gold. What did I say Sunday night? There will be some opportunities for day trades this week. Did a few myself. These markets truly get fun when you can sell short and cover the position with profits the same day.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 23:19)

Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 23:01
RJ ( KGB Commissar ) :

Is this chapter II of your forth coming novel?
Ps....I like it.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 23:23)
I predict that when we look back at all of the millenium hype, the year 2000 bug will be seen to be one large non event, brought to us by consultants and accounting firms anxious to do year 2000 audits for their clients. Far from being complacent, most firms of any stature whatsover are using the "problem" as a justification to replace their hodgepodge of old legacy systems with one of the integrated packages, ( SAP,Oracle,JDEdwards, etc ) , which not only do the accounting but also inventory control, invoicing, distribution and everything else from soup to nuts ) Most have specialized versions by industry group ( construction, oil, banking, education, pharmaceutical etc. ) Tens of thousands of companies have moved to these packages in the last 5 to 10 years. Small business replace their PC based systems so often it's unlikely that they will get hung out. Sure some outfit in Northern Saskatewan or South Dakoda is going to miss the boat, but unless a company is run by people that are deaf and blind it'll only be the government that screws it up. By the time the National Inquirer is telling us we have a problem I think we can safely assume that it isn't going to bail us out on our gold investments.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 23:37)
What Should Happen......
All...While I am the first to say that the markets do not necessarily have to do what they are supposed to do, here is what should happen. ( You place your bets where you think they should go )

...When gold finds a pleasant trading range close to the low ( if it is now, the range is $314-329 ) , it will trade there for a few weeks or months....Then as the range starts to change, there will be a breakout to the bottomside ( the infamous "sharp spike" ) of a few dollars ( say $292 ) that will be a sharp and interday low with a close above the range low ( in this case $314 ) and a next day close well above the range high ( in this case $329 ) .....Then about 5 days of big upside.. All the others have their opinions and I will not debate the issue as markets set their own rules...I am only going by 20+ years of experience of doing this and being there for each bottom and top during this time period and still being here to give an opinion with $2 in my pocket to back up my opinion and dry powder to fire at the last rustling of the leaves....My advice still is as it has been all along...

1 ) Get your physical position in order ( paid for and free of debt )
2 ) Get stocks ready for the long haul
3 ) Use gambling money for futures and options and hedges
4 ) Use no butter and egg money for stocks and futures ( if you do not have profits from previous ventures, you need to be physicals only )
5 ) Be prepared to suffer
6 ) Smile and be gracious if you hit a homerun
7 ) Trade all the way up and all the way down...Yes, it will be volitile.. sell on the run ups and buy on the pullbacks...You will make more money playing the volitility than if you hold for the big buck....Do not be afraid to buy and sell...
8 ) Do not piss away you hard made money...You may never have this chance again in your lifetime....
9 ) Send me 10% of your profits...

(Thu Jul 24 1997 23:41)
If you're wondering why this site has been so quiet and peaceful tonight, it's because hepcat is spreading his villainy around in the bars, coins, and stocks chat group. Same old, same old. Oh well, its nice while it lasts.

(Thu Jul 24 1997 23:49)
Downer Friday.
With the market as weak as it is, I don't look for any significant buying tomorrow. If the bears take over, we'll break 320 again. Gonn'a hike the skirt way up tomorrow................

(Thu Jul 24 1997 23:57)
Cold War ended @ People tired of politics,etc. as in 1920's
In the 1920's, Canadian women turned away from public causes towards
their private concerns. So did Canadian men.
It was easy to govern Canada between 1926 and 1929. People seemed bored with politics; there had been too much excitement for too long. Now there were other opportunities and interests which shunted politics to the
side: movies, automobiles, songs of the jazz age, *the stock market*, and
now that prohibition had faded in most areas, *the bottle*

Affluence bred contentment, and pride in what Canada had accomplished was reflected in the celebrations of Canada's Diamond Jubilee in 1927.

The contrast was marked with the sombre days a decade before, when casualties in Europe and the conscription crisis at home ended all
celebrations of the nation's Golden Jubilee. In 1927, old-age pensions,
a product of the political bargaining of 1925-6 began.

Sombre days a decade before 1914 to Nov 11,1918 "Lest We Forget"
WWI 10,000,000 young men killed, 20,000,000 maimed, crippled, burned,
wounded, their youth lost by mutilation. At the same time 13,000,000
civilians died in that great holocaust; their were 10,000,000 refugees,
5,000,000 war widows and 9,000,000 war orphans.

Canadians lost 56,634 killed, 6,347 officers and 143,385 other ranks
were wounded.As the young men of World War I died many thought they were
dying for a great ideal.

USofA, entered the WWI on April 06 1917, After it was all over President
Wilson himself wearily asked an audience on September 05 1919, " Is there
any man here or women - let me say is there any child - who does not
know that the seed of war in the modern world is industrial and
commercial rivalry ?"

Then he said explicitly, referring to the war just over, " This was a
commercial and industrial war "