Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

Kitco Inc. does not exercise any editorial control over the content of this discussion group and therefore does not necessarily endorse any statements that are made or assert the truthfulness or reliability of the information provided.

(Wed Sep 03 1997 00:07)
Panda ( 23:26 ) Me too!

Kahunna Grande
(Wed Sep 03 1997 00:09)
Permain Basin
Eldorado-Thanks for the Gary North link. Our society IS so computer dependant that the y2k will be a disaster. If there was a lot of money in fixing the problem dont you think Bill Gates would be working on it? Or does our bispeceled friend know somthing we dont! Exxon refinery blew up today in Baytown Texas. It only will affect you if you live between Texas and New York. Refinerys are entering their fall turnarounds and while the product tanks are full of gasoline look out if there is a early cold snap and there are problems with the Exxon refinery re-start or problems with the refinerys shut down for maintenance starting back up. The oil companys have been running these things balls out ( 95 to 99% of capicity ) for a long while. I wonder how many will blow up this winter? There is little fuel oil on the East Coast and it takes three weeks to get it up there. Price of gasoline, diesel and fuel oil will go up! Wonder how the Klintonist Regeme will spin this.

(Wed Sep 03 1997 00:17)
There once was a man who bought so much gold
he bought and he bought until he got old
I'm safe and I'm sound, he had not denied
then all of a sudden, the man up and died.

From up in the heavens he could see as he went
all those gold coins, that he had never spent
his aunts and his uncles and cousins and more
clamoured his wealth as they sold out the store

St Peter, he shouted, give me a last chance
I'll sell all my gold and quit this romance
St Peter replied to him, I can't do that now
for you might go back and invest in the DOW.

(Wed Sep 03 1997 00:19)

(Wed Sep 03 1997 00:34)

Best place for El Nino with good links-- Also, check out this search tool for navigating the net. I recommend saving it--

(Wed Sep 03 1997 00:35)
@"Disgusted", market advice
Dear disgusted. Re your amateur psychbab...Uh I mean psycohanalysis, my market advice to you is Sell GOLD, Buy LITHIUM and PROZAC.

(Wed Sep 03 1997 00:36)
I don't care the stock markets ( up or down ) ,the gold price future trend whether is bear or bull,BUT,i knew that everyday i just buy ,buy and buy!
Since the currencies around were terrible and still underpressure!To many people,now "GOLD" is the most savest place now!I just watch my metal value going up, up ,... ( in term of local currency ) !
TEd,...personally think i think more negative effects will surface,i meant in inner politic..maybe.....?.....or?let see!
happy day

(Wed Sep 03 1997 00:37)
@the scene
RJ, Kahunna -- I could only post that URL because someone else here was also good enough to. The site does seem to put the problem into a more encompassing perspective!
I don't know if there is a 'like' site for El Nino. I've only mainly seen news articles so far. Much like you own daily papers might contain. Basically calling for much more rain for the west coasts of the Americas stretching into Texas, or even further East. The air flow may tend to push the cold air further East and South this winter. It should supposedly be good for upsetting Atlantic hurricane formations. But all in all, much guesswork still abounds.

(Wed Sep 03 1997 00:43)
@the scene
Auric -- Thanks for the El Nino URL.

(Wed Sep 03 1997 00:46)
@how dare you


(Wed Sep 03 1997 00:46)
RJ, Re your 22:59, my feelers are hurt that you think me insincere. Re your 23:10, here on the central CA Coast, water temps. are 4 to 6degrees above normal, 2 MahiMahi were caught in Monterrey Bay yesterday ( VERY unusual ) , other warm water species have arrived, this El Nino is stronger than the one in 82, and that year we had 100+ inches of rain in four months in the Satnta Cruz mountains! Several people were buried in mudslides, some still there because no way to get them out. Expect LA and Northen CA to have floods, expect the Sacramento Valley to have floods and crop damage ( you listening you commodity traders?? )

Hey RJ, buy Platinum Proof Eagles.......

(Wed Sep 03 1997 00:48)
Jmark, I see you have toned it down, glad to see you found your valium...

(Wed Sep 03 1997 00:52)
Jmark, Neophyte, gold alloy
PS, you are right about one thing, I didn't mispeak on the subject of Alloy re Gold Eagles. Gold Eagles are 91.67%V gold, 5.33% copper, and 3% silver. More copper than silver which is why I called it a "Gold/Copper" alloy. Look Jmark, you LEARNED something..keep reading, you may learn MORE in time...

(Wed Sep 03 1997 00:54)
Jin: It sounds like you are more bullish on gold than you were a month or so ago and you have been correct in predicting currency+equity problems for Malaysia and the rest of S.E.Asia....and now you say the worst is yet to come....I'm too tired to think ( good ) as it's almost 2 AM but I'll get an e-mail off to you soooooooon....Happy Trading!

(Wed Sep 03 1997 00:54)
@the scene
Time to watch a movie on the back of my eyelids. Goodnight all.

(Wed Sep 03 1997 00:57)
I'll echo Eldorado and say ....good night ALL!

Bastard Son of Hepcat
(Wed Sep 03 1997 00:59)
@ the backyard
CNBC was interviewing a young fund manager and he said the market may
correct due to exhaustion. No rotation left, no new money coming in, nowhere to run, nowhere to hide. No exogenous event needed. It's a
little joke from heaven when history repeats itself. Patience
boys and girls.

Bastard Son of Hepcat
(Wed Sep 03 1997 00:59)
@ the backyard
CNBC was interviewing a young fund manager and he said the market may
correct due to exhaustion. No rotation left, no new money coming in, nowhere to run, nowhere to hide. No exogenous event needed. It's a
little joke from heaven when history repeats itself. Patience
boys and girls.

(Wed Sep 03 1997 01:10)
..... Lurky .....
Better than proofs, I will have brilliant uncirculated PAEs in the next month. Platinum is so hard, Takes nine strikes to get proper relief. These should look almost as good as the proofs without the hefty premium.

The 1997 PAE minting will be 40,000 in Sept. with another 40K possible by end of year. That's not very many.

(Wed Sep 03 1997 01:16)
Yes RJ, but the PAE's will just be another bullion Platinum coin minted in the 10's of thousands, not an ultra low mintage, high numismatic interest Proof. Also, the PAE's won't be seeing 9 strikes, that's only for the Proof series....

(Wed Sep 03 1997 01:51)

Eldorado--No problemo on El Nino :- )

(Wed Sep 03 1997 02:04)

My take--FWIW-- I think JIN makes a good point. I think the effects on SE Asia have yet to be fully felt. Severe economic disruption usually leads to unrest which further exacerbates the problem. This is relevant to the US since Japan is very directly affected by events in Thailand, Malaysia,etc. Not meaning to be overly pesimistic here, but that situation is not OVER. Just being pushed to the back burner by the news on the DOW today. This story is not going to go away.

(Wed Sep 03 1997 02:57)
LGB...We are neighbors? Central CA coast? hmmmmm...
I've been making a list of the 'commodity-traded' crops grown in Sacramento Valley...and I could think of ONE...cotton! What are the others? I know potatoes are traded now but I'm not sure about the %'s. Will you share your great insight with us or will you be vague? And in one of your earlier posts you said that el nino and TA were mumbo-jumbo and meant nothing...what has changed for you??

btw, COTTON ( if that was your reference ) has been 'sideways' for a LONG time. With the 'christ-child' rearing it's Ugly head we may be in for some good action. Volatilities remain very low

Options are still very reasonable for next MAR98 and other contracts

Action will most likely prove to be better than gold movement for the rest of this year...unless you consider gold going down a good movement...???

1 view ( 22:54 ) - your stuff is printed and ingested...thanks.


Who Cares
(Wed Sep 03 1997 03:01)
CA Real Estate Prices


According to a recent Barron's or WSJ, house prices in Los
Angeles, on average, are still at 50% of their peaks, and
increased approx. 1% in the past year.

I'd actually go research, but I don't find you credible enough
to bother. : ) I lived in Los Angeles for a tad under thirty
years, and I was back there last August for my 20-year high
school reunion.

I bought the L.A. Times. If you truly believe that "jobs are
booming" in Los Angeles, I will refer you to the L.A. Times
want ads, which, one year ago, were unbelievable pathetic. Less
total jobs than Denver, with about 1/5 of the population.

I visited my best friend from high school for a day. He was
quite excited. His house, purchased in 1989 in the low 90s,
had just been re-appraised at 8K higher than the year before -
$58K. He was quite happy that he might be out of it in another
couple of years. : )

Still, I got a laugh out of your posting. I have a _Worth_
article here from 1994, telling me pretty much the same story
you gave. Too bad it wasn't true, either then or now. : )

(Wed Sep 03 1997 03:27)
And while I'm on the subject of TA...
Falling Out Of Bed - your comments ( last night ) are quite astute. You must have gone to EB's school of 'commodity-dart-throwing-you-pick-em'. Another fine graduate! It brings tears to my eyes.

To the subject: 'Gold and the Big-Pennant'. A Looooong while back ( when I was bullish on gold ) I saw 'the mother of declining wedges'. Boy did I get my undies wedged on that. Now I see another Wedge of sort...BUT, it is really a 'Pennant'. And as we know...pennants ( congestion to make a point ) can go either way, right? Well, this pennant will go ONE way and it ain't towards the heavens... and today we had a 'mini-breakout'...sell on the breakout! oh my!

Platinum is creating a nice sideway pattern and we KNOW which way that will go...zooooooooom!

Silver did have it's 'key-reversal' last much as I hate it...we will go down, down, down. But it will be good buying opp. ( maybe?? )


(Wed Sep 03 1997 03:30)
Who Cares...I should have is past midnight...
Have you come out to 'suck some blood'? find some garlic ;- )


that was a vampire joke btw

Strad Master
(Wed Sep 03 1997 03:42)
BIG pennant
EB: I've been watching that pennant in gold for awhile now and, you're right - it doesn't look good at all! You are right about Platinum and Silver too.
What happened? You didn't even get to listen on the radio? Wish you would have been there. You would've enjoyed meeting RJ - even if he WAS dressed inapropriately! :- ) :- ) :- ) ( Just kidding RJ. ) ( Now he'll write a bad review, for sure! )

(Wed Sep 03 1997 03:49)
@big island
LGB: I gotta agree with Who Cares on SoCal real estate. Here in the islands we basically are parasites...we feed by snagging buyers bloated off the boom markets on the west coast mainly. The last two years it has been ( my best guesstimate ) 80% from the northwest AND the bay area being the only bright spot out of CAL. My CAL research figures which I receive quarterly show good volume has returned to CAL but prices have shown very modest increases except for isolated areas. Of course, it really wasn't the Japanese that fueled my market in the late 80' was that 87 nose dive in the dow and the SF quake. People investing into Hawaii real estate were semi-panic buying. They typically had just 2 reasons...get away from the quakes in the market and on the ground! So much for technical indicators in that instance.

Who Cares
(Wed Sep 03 1997 03:55)
Sucking Blood? No, Sucking Wind.

No blood sucking. I already learned my lesson the hard way.

LurkingGBug - I, too, was once an obnoxious guy, and I still
get a kick out of annoying people on the political newsgroups.

Heck, I'm STILL an obnoxious guy, sometimes. On the Net. Pretty
much the opposite in real life. My old boss once characterized
me as "someone who would give you the shirt off his back". : )

It's pretty easy to be over-confident when you're on a winning
streak. From 90-93, California real estate droppped like a ROCK,
and I was there on the Internet, cheering it on. ; ) Man, it
was great. Year. After year. After year. Just bugging the
HELL out of people who bought at the peak. : )

You say you got burned by Howard Ruff ( btw, the website is, don't know if it still works : ) , but
I doubt you got burned THAT bad, you didn't learn as much
humility as I have. : ) Man, I got burned bad in 93, I KNEW
bonds were going to shoot to the stars, just like everyone
else knew it.

But, I will let you in on a secret I discovered this year. I've
actually had TWO job interviews where the interviewer mentioned
my POSTINGS from FOUR YEARS AGO. Used them to disqualify me from
a job that I was probably the best suited for. I wouldn't be
at all surprised to find that a large number of companies are
using "postings" to discern your "ability" to get along with
others. Sorry, pal, but the mundane among us are FRIGHTENED
by alter egos. Sad, but true, I found to my woe.

I no longer post under my own name now, because of this.

Still. I have to admit. I've made enough that I can still
afford to work for crappy wages. I just HATE being stuck
in a nothing job where I accomplish nothing now. It's actually
pretty depressing. I'm also suspicious that my postings where
used by my Sociopathic Subordinate to trash my career behind my
back. I think I can see what he did now.

It's actually pretty depresing. Crap. I can't believe I typed that

Man. It really sucks being back at the bottom, doing boring
crap work, KNOWING that you're going to have to work your butt
off for years again, trying to rebuild things. Frankly, I
probably would have popped a bullet in my head by now, except
for my wife, who has an absolutely AMAZING and UNSTOPPABLE

Be warned. Of course, in someplace like SF, perhaps it doesn't
matter as much. I'm not moving again, though. I already have
a cemetary plot here. : )

(Wed Sep 03 1997 03:55)
StradMaster :-(
I'm sorry. We are moving one of our stores, we had two important people out on emergency ( timing SUCKS, but it always does ) , Bad feelings about night before ( some dumb-ass-driving-drunk-in-a-tunnel-at-break-neck-speeds ) , Big traffic weekend in Los Angeles ( lived there done that ) . I can go on but let us suffice to say that I missed a Golden opp. and I apologize...there will be a next And I couldn't get that S.B. station-I had it set up to tape. Can you direct me to a copy of your tape ( non-digital ) ?? I will pay!!

I will do my darndest to make your next one. :- ) ) )

EB zzzzzzzzzzzzz

(Wed Sep 03 1997 04:02)
Teaching is NOT a low-life job
Who Cares - I thought you were teaching. Or am I mistaken? That is not a *Lowly* profession but one to take pride in...or at least it used to be. I guess I don't know anymore... :- ( the rack ;-0 yawn...

(Wed Sep 03 1997 04:04)
@big island
Who Cares: I thought you posted your locale as being in Idaho last night. Are things that bad job wise there? My wife and I were just fantasizing today about a nice home on the lake up in the silver valley. Have things topped out there already?

Strad Master
(Wed Sep 03 1997 04:14)
EB: Wow! You were going to come cown from SB? That's far above and beyond the call... About getting a copy - they are going to give me a good DAT from which I can make a copy ( assuming I like the performance once I hear it, and that I get a good review from RJ. ( :- ) ) E-mail me. As to other concerts - there are always others and I'll keep you posted. You can already put the Sunday of Labor Day on your calendar for next year, as I play the same radio venue on that date every year. Sorry for all the difficulties you had. You were missed, though.

(Wed Sep 03 1997 05:59)
@big island
KNVCF had some good news on 9/2 after the market closed. If this is only a bear market it should stay flat today, right? If it's a grizzly bear for gold then I'll probably lose a little more equity. Don't all bears hibernate in the winter?

Definitely beary quiet here. I guess the long labor day weekend tired out the analysts.

Mike Sheller
(Wed Sep 03 1997 06:07)
I got the fear
POORBOYS: The speculator's prayer: I fear the Great Goldenko. I pray my soul is kept from his thrall. I wish not to profit from another's misery. May all my market operations be in the name of foresight and the spirit of "the game," and not a futile and boastful effort at self-idolatry.

Who Cares
(Wed Sep 03 1997 06:07)
Berates of Change

Re: LGB and rates of change in real estate. The whole point of
that example was to point out that, often, people assume a rate
of change is equal to the change itself.

We'uns call that thar ideey "calculus", Goldbug. : )

The proper debating response is not, "I'ssin just a simple
hillbilly investor that don't need no larnin'". : )

The proper debating response is,

"Is Bill Buckler's chart of money creation versus DJIA
a valid example of rates of change in money creation initially
driving the rate at which the DJIA rises, and is there a
high correlation between the two?" : )

It's sure possible to still hit the brick wall at 90mph while
undergoing negative acceleration.

Sorry, I just don't possess the proper respect for "nat'rul
intelligince". : )

(Wed Sep 03 1997 06:07)
Consumer goods sector shows poor performance in first half

SO PAULO, 09/03/97 - According to a study carried out by the Minas Gerais based consulting
firm Valoriza, balance sheets released by public stock companies during the first half of this year
show good performances from firms operating in the capital goods, steel, and mining sectors.
"However, companies operating in the consumer goods sector, such as electrical goods, which
concentrated sales during the first three years of the Real Plan, have shown poor performances.
This is principally due to insolvency," affirmed Andr Luiz Zuchhi Conceio, director of Valoriza.
( Gazeta Mercantil ) ( JM )

Mike Sheller
(Wed Sep 03 1997 06:13)
Oro adoro
ESTE: re Gold Museum in Colombia ( these days, the idea of gold being in a museum is not without its conceptual irony ) :Eldorado is no myth. He's here at Kitco. I'm surprised the Spaniards left ANY gold in SA after raping that continent the way they did.

(Wed Sep 03 1997 06:18)
@big island

NEW YORK, Sept 3 ( Reuter ) - Some market watchers said that a surge in stock sales by corporate executives and
directors in recent months could foreshadow more stock market declines, the Wall Street Journal reported.

An eight-week moving average of the ratio of insider sales to insider buying is at its higest point since 1993, the paper
said in its electronic edition Wednesday, citing Vickers Weekly Insider Report.

The spate of selling by insiders probably has been spurred by cuts enacted last month in capital-gains tax rates, the paper
said it was told by some market specialists.

While the tax cut played a big part in August's 7.3 percent stock market decline, opinion is split on whether it will
continue to put downward pressure on stock prices, the paper added.

(Wed Sep 03 1997 06:20)
Net outflows from Asian funds in ninth consecutive week.

Mike Sheller
(Wed Sep 03 1997 06:25)
I care
WHO CARES: There is too much talk of death in your posts. Death does not have to be physical, though it almost seems as though you are just awaiting such an event. You have a good mind, from what I can tell from your posts and your interests, and a good sense of humor. An intelligent one. Treasure that. You are blessed with a wife and life-partner you love. I know how important that is. Treasure that. You are mature, and are capable of seeing your life and the human condition philosophically, even as others around you stumble in their dream. You have years left to observe, live, think...Treasure that. There is nowhere for you to go physically, for what would that matter. But in the spirit you must now go off and find the meaning of life. Not religion, not some cult, but a reasoned and yet inspired way to travel the rest of your path. And take your loving and beloved wife with you. Do not let your soul die. Do not let the temporal, deathshroud of the world defeat your eternal spirit. Let your screen name henceforth be not Who Cares? but Who Cares! There is a universe of difference.

(Wed Sep 03 1997 06:28)
Poll of ten economists indicates Bundesbank will leave rates unchanged.

(Wed Sep 03 1997 06:33)
Can technology prevent a derivatives meltdown?

(Wed Sep 03 1997 06:38)
MIKE SHELLER: Good Morning! Kitco seems more civilized this time of day doesn't it? Does the babble get worse as we approach the full moon?

(Wed Sep 03 1997 06:47)
Japan announces dates for bank earnings reports. ( Note that the dates have been set to stretch over a longer period of time "to allow for more discussion and better disclosure" )

(Wed Sep 03 1997 06:52)
To Early
Stock Market up in Asia & Europe.
Dollar down across the board.
S&P500 -230, NSDQ100 -615.
US 30YR Long-Yield +.014 to 6.568

(Wed Sep 03 1997 06:56)
South Korean Finance Minister to keep Kia Motors operational.
"If the company goes bankrupt, strains on the economy, especially in the financial markets, will be unbearable"

(Wed Sep 03 1997 06:57)
Lunar eclipse yesterday in Adelaide, Australia 2nd Sept.
To be followed by solar eclipse on the 16th.
Is it not true that if they occur in pairs that they are more powerful.

Mike Sheller
(Wed Sep 03 1997 07:00)
Grey skies, smilin' @me
DONALD: Good morning to you, sir. That steel grey sky and humidity must be coming from your side of the sound ;- ) Never did like these early days of Virgo. I guess I'll never shake that September feel of having to go back to school. It wasn't til I "grew up" that I realized you never leave it. Now that summer is in its decomposition, can't wait for those crisp fall days and sunny, scudding cloud filled blue skies.

(Wed Sep 03 1997 07:03)
Flagship Indonesian bank downgraded.
( The discussion of why this bank was downgraded provides many excellent insights into the problems of the region and leads one to believe that Asian problems are not short term in nature )

(Wed Sep 03 1997 07:10)
MIKE: Whenever a gray blob settles over the region I always blame New Jersey. Fall will be here soon and there is nothing, absolutely nothing, as beautiful as New England in the Fall. Come on over anytime and I'll give you the tour.

(Wed Sep 03 1997 07:20)
Mexico: Zedillo warning over economy


By Daniel Dombey in Mexico City

President Ernesto Zedillo has warned Mexico's new opposition-dominated
Congress to keep to current economic policy or else risk financial

In a sign that Mexico's democratic transition is proceeding more smoothly
than some had feared, Mr Zedillo's comments, in his annual state of the
nation speech late on Monday night, were received by members of the
opposition with a respect not accorded previous addresses.

But Mr Zedillo's comments on the economy were rejected by some of the
chief leaders of the new Congress.

Mexican markets reacted favourably yesterday to the speech. The stock
market, bolstered by the rise in New York share prices, was up 3 per cent
at midday yesterday. Standard & Poor's, the credit rating agency, revised
Mexico's outlook to "positive" from "stable", in the wake of the state of the
union address.

In his formal response to Mr Zedillo, Porfirio Muoz Ledo, the new
Speaker of the powerful Chamber of Deputies, made clear that he would
not deliver the support the president requested, calling for a special forum
to discuss economic change and asking the president to return once
Congress had reviewed his report.

"We can examine and perfect details and specific programmes. But the
basis we have for economic policy is correct and will lead to the growth
and employment that Mexico needs," said Mr Zedillo.

"Any decision which negatively affects healthy public finances, incentives
for saving and investment or the modernisation of the economy. . . not only
will mean that we Mexicans fail to achieve even our most basic targets but
will represent a great step backwards," he added.

George Cole
(Wed Sep 03 1997 07:31)
December gold down $1.10. Joberg off 0.5%

APH: Thanks for letting us share your tea leaves! Our stock market sentiments very similar. Some additional upside, but another spike down around mid-month.

Eldorado: Very insightful comment re: weak shorts having been shaken out and how that will make the next drop more severe than it would otherwise have been.

(Wed Sep 03 1997 07:31)
Philippines proposes "windfall tax" on gold mining.

(Wed Sep 03 1997 07:44)
GEORGE: Good Morning! I have convinced myself that we will have a Dow down day today. There is a channel developing from the 8300 top, a second lower top, and a third even lower yesterday. It looks very steep to me. Also, I see that some of the more seasoned professionals are taking the Asian problems more seriously now and I expect them to get defensive. The high tech, high flyer types are due for a pullback and that money seems frightened from the Gateway Computer news yesterday. My comfort level is further enhanced by the Dow/Gold Ratio action yesterday. It said 257 points on the Dow is no big deal. Hope springs eternal!

(Wed Sep 03 1997 07:56)
Debts: Argentina in 30-year dollar bond


By Edward Luce

Argentina yesterday revealed plans to launch its first 30-year global US
dollar bond issue in exchange for the retirement of at least $1bn ( 600m )
of its old-style restructured debt.

The transaction, which Argentina hopes will enable it to cast off its 1980s
image as a country with serious debt problems, comes at a time of
wavering confidence in emerging markets as a result of the financial turmoil
in Asia.

However, Argentina, which has chalked up steady improvements in its
economic performance over the last three years, is expected to get a
positive reception on the international bond markets.

"This is a very bold move," said Mr Peter West, chief economist of BBV
Latinvest. "But it is probably a clever move. Emerging market bond prices
have been much less badly affected than stock market prices by the recent
turbulence in Asia."

Argentina has offered investors cash or new 30-year US dollar bonds in
exchange for the retirement of all of its outstanding Brady bonds.

Brady bonds are derived from former distressed commercial debt
re-issued as international bonds and backed up - or collateralised - by US
Treasury bonds.

As a result of the proposed swap programme, which could involve all
$28.36bn of Argentina's Brady bonds, the country hopes to leave behind
the stigma of being a troubled borrower on the international debt markets.

"This is a very aggressive statement by Argentina," said a bond dealer in
New York yesterday. "Argentina is saying: 'We are now a responsible
international economy which investors can trust'."

Argentina will become the fourth country with large issues of Brady
bonds outstanding to undertake a large-scale retirement programme.

J.P. Morgan, which will be sole bookrunner on the Argentinian deal,
yesterday said that holders of Brady bond debt had until September 11 to
accept the swap.

Mike Sheller
(Wed Sep 03 1997 08:02)
on the shoulders of Cherokee
DONALD, ALL: Re Phillipine proposal for "windfall profits" mining tax, this is, as usual, a transparent attempt by an inept government to punish others for their own mistakes. It is another means of depriving people of their ability to protect themselves from the invasive and manipulative blunders of their "representatives" or their "leaders." Or to take back in the revenues earned by the efforts of others what they have squandered for their people. Coming now as it does from a small, but significant gold producing nation, one might stop to think whether Phillipine "officials" would take any bets of gold at 2 - 5 - 0. And even should gold get there, it would likely be a small carnage compared to what will happen to the Phillipine currency.

(Wed Sep 03 1997 08:04)
Good Morning,Been reading Siberian Light ( as in crude ) It's a novel,but also very graphic picture of Russia. Joke: What's a Russian business deal? That's when two guys make a deal for 1000 Kilos of sugar and both run for the door. Why are they running? The seller to find the sugar and the buyer to find the money.

(Wed Sep 03 1997 08:06)
Insurance: Companies make a bomb out of
the millennium


By Christopher Adams, Insurance Correspondent

Insurers offering coverage against the "millennium bomb" are demanding
that customers pay huge fees upfront to specially appointed consultants.

Companies are being charged up to $365,000 ( 227,000 ) , most of which
cannot be recovered later, for an audit of their systems before receiving
insurance cover.

Some potential buyers have to pay tens of thousands of dollars just to get a
quote. If they decide not to buy insurance, the downpayment is not

A few US-based insurers and brokers have begun selling policies
specifically protecting companies against financial loss should their
computers fail to recognise the year 2000.

Commercial insurance buyers at big companies said yesterday that the
initial fees on such policies were generally much higher than those charged
for any other type of insurance risk, including pollution cover.

They added that the downpayments would deter many companies from
purchasing the insurance. According to the buyers, existing insurance
cover should protect most big companies against the millennium bomb.

The millennium bomb is a legacy from the early days of computing, when
years were stored in programs as two digits rather than four. Come the
turn of the century, many machines will be unable to distinguish between
1900 and 2000 since both years are stored as 00, leading to potentially
catastrophic results.

Interest in the new insurance policies has so far been almost non-existent.
Nobody has yet bought one and only a handful of companies are
undergoing the audits required by insurers.

The US insurers and brokers offering millennium bomb cover include some
of the country's biggest: AIG, J&H Marsh & McLennan, and Aon. The
insurance on offer typically covers business interruption as well as
professional and general liability. Premium rates are high and limits on
coverage vary according to the policy, but can be as much as $500m.

The Association of Insurance and Risk Managers, a London-based
group representing commercial insurance buyers, described the costs as
"remarkably high".

(Wed Sep 03 1997 08:10)
I recently read that tvx will be repurchasing shares. Any info on mngt. available would be appreciated.

(Wed Sep 03 1997 08:30)
@ grey mornin
Comex: Gold down 1.20;silver down .7 cent; Pl down 5.70 and PA @ unch: long bond down 4 ticks; S+P futures down 1.30 ....Big movers in Asia: Hang Seng up 7.13%; Indonesia up 7.01%; Nikkei up 2.76% ....and Malaysia down 5.65% ....

(Wed Sep 03 1997 08:42)
TED -- It's raining down here. Some cooler Canadian air on the way! It was in the mid eighties yesterday. Tomorrow? Low fifties are forecast. Looks like the ealy Globex isn't doing much. Gold, as usual, can't get off of its A**.

I'm off to find an 'ATX' style chassis for my new mother board. Computers are an amazing industry. They nickle and dime you to death for everything! Kind of like the gold market, you die the death of a thousand 1/16th losses! They add up after a while! BBL.....

(Wed Sep 03 1997 08:52)
Cdn bankruptcies up again
...these are supposed to be our 'good times' eh?
OTTAWA, Sept 3 ( Reuter ) - Bankruptcies in Canada rose to 8,072 in June from 7,268 a year earlier, the Department of
Consumer and Corporate Affairs said on Wednesday.
The department said 977 businesses and 7,095 consumers went bankrupt in the month.
In May, 8,677 bankruptcies were recorded.
For the year to date, 50,942 bankruptcies have been registered ( 6,580 businesses and 44,382 consumers ) , up from 46,827 in
the same period last year.

(Wed Sep 03 1997 08:57)
Exc's compensation
WASHINGTON ( Reuter ) - Increases in the pay of the nation's top corporate executives over the last 15 years outpaced the
growth of corporate revenues and profits, the Internal Revenue Service said Tuesday.
Executive pay in 1995 surged to $307.6 billion, a 182 percent rise from $108.9 billion recorded in 1980, the IRS said in its

George Cole
(Wed Sep 03 1997 08:58)
market outlook
Donald: I have never had much luck calling the market's day to day swings. But I do think this is a classic "sucker's rally" to entice the naive. As APH says, new highs are not likely, but anything can happen in this manic environment. Still, only the most nimble and experienced traders should be playing the market on the long side. Buy and hold at these levels is a formula for penury.

(Wed Sep 03 1997 09:00)
nomercy,re good times. I personally know two people, both on social security, who have gone into bankruptcy in the last two months. They had a total of $135,000 in credit card debt from pyramiding payments. And they were still getting offers of cards right to the end.

(Wed Sep 03 1997 09:06)
Dow's bull is over
1 ) Meisels, a long-time bull, said the Dow must get above its 30-day moving average near 8000 and then break through 8300 to
confirm technically the bull market is still intact.
2 ) "I think everybody should go home and pray for the markets to give back some of the day's gains and then cool off further,"
said Hugh Johnson, chief investment officer of First Albany Corp. of Albany, N.Y.

(Wed Sep 03 1997 09:07)
Mornin Panda...good luck on your "hunt"....only gov'ment # out today is the LEI ( 10 AM EST ) expected to be +0.2% in July....Yawn.....Due to circumstances beyond my control,got zero hours of sleep last night but like the trooper ( not state,thank god ) I am, I'll stay glues ta my post in front of puter screen with CNBC off ta the side,tryin to make sense about what the hell is goin down....BBL....time for more java....

(Wed Sep 03 1997 09:09)
@the scene
Carl -- Sounds like a plan to me!

(Wed Sep 03 1997 09:18)
@DFW Airport
To all: IMHO LurkingGbug is analgous to a loose cannon on the deck of this otherwise peaceful ship. If we dump him off the fantail we will all be guilty of polluting the ocean. When we make port we can call for a hazardous waste container to haul him off to ward 8 of the nearest mental institution.There he can babble to his heart's content. Land-Ho off the starboard bow.

(Wed Sep 03 1997 09:35)
Inflation Indicators
Inflexion points reached
1 ) CRB index's over 243..need to break 245 to breakout, which is very bullish for gold and another bad omen for stocks
2 ) 30 year bonds - 6.75% yield is upside resistance...a breakout is another nail in the coffin
3 ) Money Supply - growing over 9%--- continued growth along same lines -- would force Feds to tighten
4 ) US $ anything over 175 DM is terrible for German inflation

John Wetterau
(Wed Sep 03 1997 09:58)
Mexican bailout, bad maps
Who Cares! ( excellent suggestion Mike ) thanks for link to Whelan piece. Have you had any luck following up US to IMF to Mexico to US loan flim flam?
In regards to your earlier post about job woes: you are suffering from a bad map. All such pain comes from bad maps. You need to find it and change it. Your pain is your treasure, your clue to the source. Follow it back. You will find something like: you believe you should be a success at a certain job; you believe good work is always rewarded; you believe love can be earned... When you adjust the belief to a more realistic one, your pain will disappear just as back pain disappears when a disk slips into alignment.

(Wed Sep 03 1997 10:38)
First VP Gore then...
In a March 15 e-mail reply to Tilley, Gore said he could not
attend a New York function because he would be flying to San
Jose and Los Angeles for fund-raisers on April 29. "If we have
already booked the fund-raisers, then we have to decline,"
Gore wrote.

As it happens, on the same day he sent that message, Gore met
in Washington with the temple's venerable master, Hsing Yung,
at Huang's request. At the end of that 10-minute session, the
cleric invited Gore to visit the temple sometime, and the vice
president replied that he would like to do that. Officials said the
timing was coincidental, but Huang later used this as a reason
to add the temple to the April schedule.

(Wed Sep 03 1997 10:39)
Rise in jobless claims and stock prices sent the Index of Leading Economics Indicator 0.3% higher in July ( forecast 0.2% rise ) .
Commerce Dept. said construction spending increased 0.5% in July, largest in 5 months ( forecast 0.7% rise ) .

(Wed Sep 03 1997 10:40)
VP Gore in trouble
More than $120,000 in campaign contributions personally
solicited in 1995-96 by Vice President Gore for a "soft money"
account not covered by federal law instead went into a "hard
money" account subject to federal election limits.

The money came from at least eight of 46 donors the vice
president telephoned from his White House office to ask for
contributions to the Democratic National Committee,
according to records released by Gore's office.

The distinction is significant because Attorney General Janet
Reno has cited the absence of evidence that high-level
government officials sought hard money donations as a key
reason not to recommend appointment of an independent
counsel to investigate fund-raising activities for last year's

(Wed Sep 03 1997 10:50)
Asian Banks next?
September 3, 1997

Asian Market Bust Could
Cause Banking Collapse
With region ill-equipped for financial
calamity, can the IMF help avert a

Updated: Sep 3 1997 10:33AM

NEW YORK: The prospect of a major banking
collapse in shaky Southeast Asian markets is real
enough to top the agenda of this months
International Monetary Fund meeting, according to
TIME business reporter Bernard Baumohl. "These
countries aren't experienced in financial calamity,"
says Baumohl. "They really don't know how to
protect themselves, and may not even have the
resources to do so."

As the Dow posted a record 257-point gain
yesterday, investors in Southeast Asian markets
remained spooked by the regions financial malaise.
Philippine stocks closed Tuesday at a four-year low,
after a volatile session. Investors continued to worry
that weakening currencies and rising interest rates
signal the end of the regions phenomenal growth of
the last decade.

"It certainly looks like people were overly optimistic
about the Southeast Asian economies," says
Baumohl. "They pegged their currencies close to the
U.S. dollar, but they didn't have the same strong
conditions there that the U.S. is experiencing." In a
surprise effort to stop the slide, Malaysia last week
restricted stock trading. But that further scared
investors, worsening the fall.

(Wed Sep 03 1997 11:12)
...only able to get headline...story to follow?

(Wed Sep 03 1997 11:23)
RJ Good morning,
I know you were looking for El Nino sites.
you may not have seen; it also links to US Navy maps showing temperature
variations across the Pacific. Steve in Perth also has posted good
El Nino links in the past.
Our Gov't resource forecaster ( ABARE ) today predicted Australia's coming winter grain crop to total 24.7 million tonnes....28% down fron last year's record 34.5 million tonne harvest. Included in this is 16.2 million tonnes of wheat, down from 23.5 million tonnes this season.
Reason: "the El Nino influence had been the dominating feature of the cropping year ". And to make this relevant......wheat has a lovely
GOLDEN hue as it ripens. 8- ) }.
Happy trading JohnC.

(Wed Sep 03 1997 11:26)
Thailand(it'll get worse)
S & P - OUTLOOK: Negative.

A further downgrade could occur if continued weak political leadership impedes restoration of policy credibility through
implementation of financial sector reforms and adherence to the IMF stabilization program. Measures to improve the financial
sector, including stricter prudential regulation and supervision, higher disclosure standards, and timely rehabilitation or liquidation
of insolvent institutions, remain prerequisites to reversing capital outflows and easing credit conditions, Standard & Poor's said.
-- CreditWire

(Wed Sep 03 1997 11:30)
SAO PAULO, Sept 3 ( Reuter ) - Brazil's Central Bank on Wednesday said it had liquidated Banco do Estado do Amapa SA,
controlled by the government of the northern state of Amapa.

The Central Bank said in a statement the liquidation was based on irregularities involving issues of Certificates of Deposits to be
traded abroad.

(Wed Sep 03 1997 11:32)
DCR Downgrades P.T. Bank Internasional Indonesia Long-Term Senior
Unsecured Debt and Future Credit Card Receivable Securitization
Transaction Ratings

(Wed Sep 03 1997 11:36)
EMU delay?
Tietmeyer says EMU delay would not be a catastrophe

FRANKFURT ( AFX-ASIA ) - Bundesbank president Hans Tietmeyer said a
postponement of the introduction of the European single currency would not be
a catastrophe, either politically or economically. "I cannot follow the argument
that I've heard recently, which says that the European skies would fall in or the
economy would come apart at the seams if the euro were postponed,"
Tietmeyer said in an interview to be published in weekly newspaper Die
Woche tomorrow. However, that does not mean that the central bank president is either calling for
or speaking against a postponement, Tietmeyer said. By itself, the Bundesbank cannot make a
postponement of EMU a topic for discussion, Tietmeyer said.

Indeed, such a discussion is not suitable at present, he noted, adding that only in spring 1998 will
politicians have the sufficient overview. "Membership or the issue of a new timetable must then be
decided on a political level," Tietmeyer said. Tietmeyer also emphasised the need for a high level of
stability if EMU is to succeed. "If the foundations are stable, then monetary union is very positive for
the future of Europe but if they're not, then monetary union will prove to be a union of conflict in the
long term." In this context, the Maastricht criterion that the public deficit should be no more than 3
pct of gross domestic product is fundamentally an upper limit, Tietmeyer said. If individual states
only reach 3.4 pct or 3.3 pct then "that will be difficult -- both for people and for the financial
markets," he said. "I cannot accept all the analyses and opinions which seem to sy that the state of
public finances is not important," Tietmeyer said. Furthermore, the Maastricht criteria must be met
on a lasting basis. "It would be wrong to believe that you can get a free ticket for monetary union on
the basis of one year's results," he said.

It is also very dangerous to believe that all economic problems can be solved immediately by the
creation of the euro. "If we don't solve the problems before ( EMU ) , it will become even more
difficult afterwards," he said. Asked whether there is any point at which he would give up, Tietmeyer
said: "I will contribute my own independent opinion and advise the politicians but I can not say
beforehand exactly where the limit lies for me. Up until now, in any case, I haven't considered
resigning. I want to contribute to a good outcome."

Tietmeyer emphasised the need for a high level of stability if EMU is to succeed. "If the foundations
are stable, then monetary union is very positive for the future of Europe," he said. "But if they're not,
then monetary union will prove to be a union of conflict in the long term." In this context, the
Maastricht criterion that public deficit should be no more than 3 pct of gross domestic product is
fundamentally an upper limit, Tietmeyer said. If individual states only reach 3.4 pct or 3.3 pct then
"that will be difficult -- both for people and for the financial markets," he said. "I cannot accept all
the analyses and opinions which seem to sy that the state of public finances is not important,"
Tietmeyer said. Furthermore, the Maastricht criteria must be met on a lasting basis. "It would be
wrong to believe that you can get a free ticket for monetary union on the basis of one year's results,"
he said.

It is also very dangerous to believe that all economic problems can be solved immediately by the
creation of the euro. "If we don't solve the problems before ( EMU ) , it will become even more
difficult afterwards," he said. Asked whether there is any point at which he would give up, Tietmeyer
said: "I will contribute my own independent opinion and advise the politicians. But I can't say
beforehand exactly where the limit lies for me. Up until now, in any case, I haven't considered
resigning. I want to contribute to a good outcome."

EU's de Silguy says EMU delay would cause 'economic, legal, political

Steve - Perth
(Wed Sep 03 1997 11:39)
Metz & Wein not convinced....

But attention now turns to Friday's US August
employment report which is expected to show only a
small gain in jobs. Wall Street economists' estimates
range from a gain of as low as 50,000 jobs to 100,000,
with the unemployment rate expected to remain
unchanged at 4.8 per cent.

If the numbers surprise on the upside, US stock prices
are expected to slump again with the US market
wondering whether higher rates will be used to slow the

Michael Metz, equity strategist at Oppenheimer and Co
in New York, said: "I find the volatility a bit unnerving
and symptomatic of a market that is detached from

Byron Wien , equity strategist at Morgan Stanley said: "I
don't think this is the beginning of a new bull leg, the
economy is going to pick up, interest rates are going up
and the market cannot handle that."

Marshall Acuff, equity strategist at Smith Barney, said:
"This was the positive side of the negative volatility we
have had: the breadth was good but the volume was
smaller than average."

(Wed Sep 03 1997 11:42)
To All, particularly grain watchers:
Found source for comments on El Nino and falling OZ grain production: Happy Trading !

Steve - Perth
(Wed Sep 03 1997 11:43)
Can you believe these guys re: Gold????

(Wed Sep 03 1997 11:53)
Dow turns Negative first time today.

Steve - Perth
(Wed Sep 03 1997 11:53)
Conspiracy theorists ponder Diana's death. And they haven't even read
the Kitco one's yet!!

(Wed Sep 03 1997 11:59)
GEORGE COLE: I have had less luck than you, I am sure, on calling the market day to day; but I keep doing it anyway. Painting a bedroom today so I am mostly off line. See you later.

Steve - Perth
(Wed Sep 03 1997 12:02)
JohnC's link re El Nino is acurate:
During recent trip in past month to Esperance & Albany, crops are all looking good. Most of WA doing very well in the crop department, except north of Dowerin and past Koorda. Reports say dry from Mingenew and east of there. West of Mingenew through to Geraldton OK. Will be a good year for grain production for WA, as per last year. However, the Eastern States is a bit of a problem. Indonesia is in a Drought. Saw it on TV last night. Really bad. They will be chasing plenty of rice then. Possibly from Australia. Supposed dry for them until December. Dire lack of drinking water also in some villages.

(Wed Sep 03 1997 12:03)
Watching Spot Gold decline all morning it is good to see it back even again. This might not be as bad a day as I thought.

George Cole
(Wed Sep 03 1997 12:06)
gold article
Steve: Another dumb gold article inspired by Andy Smith and his minions. The keys to gold's weakness are the strong dollar, the long ascendancy of business over labor, and cheap CB gold loans. Inexpensive CB gold loans may persist for awhile, but the strong dollar and capital's ascendancy over labor are not likely to persist much longer. The importance of CB selling has been vastly exaggerated.

Steve - Perth
(Wed Sep 03 1997 12:08)
DJ Utilities Index VERY strong today. Near it's top also I think.$UTIL&TABLES=CHART_EXTEND&SOURCE=core/dbc
All I hope is that the Industrial index gets back to 8250, & then starts falling off again. And doesn't climb above 8300.

(Wed Sep 03 1997 12:08)
Steve-Perth - Of course the CB's will continue to tell everyone that they are not selling gold ( they are "renting" it, right? :- ) ) . And they will continue to tell people that "gold is no longer important" ( except they have a huge amount they are not "selling" but are keeping just on the fondness of sentimental memories ;- ) . There is a hostage situation here. Keep your opponent in jail and you have no opponent. Keep a pile of gold and you have no competition for paper. I believe even though everyone is fully invested in paper, that the existence of gold, its universal and historical appeal remain a powerful threat to the paper system. They will manipulate it as long as they can in defense of their paper world. But the day may soon come when paper goes to the wind and no amount of 'renting' can control the exodus. Why does Japan talk about trading T-Bills for gold if there is no importance to gold?

(Wed Sep 03 1997 12:35)
Pray - give back @ Markets
Wednesday, September 3, 1997
Superheated Dow raises fears of Fed 'cooling'
By WILLIAM HANLEY The Financial Post
The bulls gave the bears a punishing back-to-school lesson yesterday, driving Wall Street blue-chip stocks to their biggest one-day point gain in history, grabbing back almost all last week's massive loss.

The Dow Jones industrial average surged 257.36 points or 3.4% to 7879.78, only eight points shy of where it had begun the previous week's fierce meltdown.

"I think everybody should go home and pray for the markets to give back some of the day's gains and then cool off further," said Hugh Johnson, chief investment officer of First Albany Corp. of Albany, N.Y.

He worried the U.S. Federal Reserve Board will see a 257-point explosion as "too speculative and irrational" and an invitation "to cool it off" with an interest rate rise.

(Wed Sep 03 1997 12:46)
on the move?
UP TO 2.70 cdn BID ON 435,000 +
any news?

(Wed Sep 03 1997 12:59)
To answer questions,

@"EB", Other major crops in Sacto valley are Tomatoes ( Dan Quale sp ) , Rice, and Corn. My ridicule of ElNino was re the gold and Equity markets, NOT the edible commodities. El Nino had some catastrophic effects in 82, and I personally was the recipient of some of it's wrath. ( Mudslide ruined our house, forced us to move ) . As to TA, I'm all for it if it's sound, and broad based, and includes all important factors, not just those that suit someone's whacko theory or predictions.

@"Who Cares", I feel for you re your earlier post. It's sad when people can't speak freely in forums like this. That's why I so despise the "Site Nazi's" who try and squelch dissenting opinions or discourse. Folks like that would make great Book burning, censoring, mindless,Fascists

@"Uris, DFW" You posts are umworthy of further personal response. See "Who Cares" reply above.

(Wed Sep 03 1997 13:17)
Fed. Reserve System Shareholders/Membership
Can anyone provide me with the names of top shareholders of the Federal Reserve Banks and the Federal Reserve System? I understand from some sources that Standard & Poor has provided evidence that the top controllers include Chase Manhattan, Rothschild banks of London, plus other European and American merchant banking interests.

(Wed Sep 03 1997 13:24)
where is Mr. Puetz?
I think it is sad that due to bickering between LGB and others,
that we seem to have lost the contributions of Mr. Puetz.
Even if you don't agree that we will see 5000 DJIA by October,
can you refute point-by-point the case that he makes? If not,
don't denigrate him. My personal plan is to keep my Rydex Ursa
shares and my gold shares ( both of which are in the crapper of
course ) , build up my cash position, and wait and see which way
the market turns. I haven't waited 17 years to quit now but I
also don't want to keep pumping money into a sinking ship.
I just want to ride the storm and survive.

Strad Master
(Wed Sep 03 1997 13:40)
An itsy bitsy question!
BART: When I push "Reload" after I've read all the stacked up postings, I get the question "Repost Form Data? Yes/No" with the "Yes" button highlighted. What does that mean? I always push the "Yes" but if I knew what I was doing maybe I would push "No". Why must such messages be written in computereese?

(Wed Sep 03 1997 13:53)
General, don't be blaming LGB for running Puetz off the site. He's probably got a virus or something. I get a heck of a lot more hostility directed my way than he does and I'm still here. Besides, Puetz and I aren't bickering, I think he's a nice guy, just needs some strong counterpoint balance to forestall the naive out there from taking his market timing strategies seriously... ( Analytical models factoring Lunar Eclipses INDEED!!! )

(Wed Sep 03 1997 13:55)
Background @ EMU
A Foreign Assistance Act passed by Congress April 3 implements the 1947
Marshall Plan. The Act authorizes spending $5.3 billion in the first
year for economic aid to 16 European countries, creating the European
Recovery Program ( ERP ) and Economic Cooperation Administration ( ECA ) .

Studebaker boss Paul G. Hoffman is appointed Economic Cooperation
Administrator of the ERA.

West German economist Ludwig Erhart, 51, reforms the occupied nation's
currency. Germans line up June 20 1948 to receive 40 new Deutschemarks,
printed in the United States ( business enterprises receive an additional
60 per employee ) Erhard announces an end to most rationing June 21,
letting market forces govern.

1948 - French gold reserves fall to 478 tons, down from 5,000 in 1932,
and the war-weary nation adopts protectionist measures.

The Schuman Plan proposed May 09 1950 to French foreign minister Robert
Schuman by statesman Jean Monnet,71, calls for pooling of Western
Europe's coal and steel resources. The plan will evolve into the
European Economic Community.

France must industrialize if she is to surmount poverty, says General
Planning Commission chief Jean Monnet, whose Monnet Plan will lead to
increased industrialization. ( 1953 )

France demonstrates the industrial strides she has taken under the
Monnet Plan of 1953 by producing twice as much steel as in 1929. The
nation uses four times as much electricity as in 1929 and manufactures
nearly five times as many cars and trucks.

1960 West Germany's industrial production reaches 176 per cent of Germany
1936 level as an "economic miracle" progresses in Bremen, Cologne,
Dusseldorf, Frankdurt, Hamburg, Leipzig, Stuttgard.

(Wed Sep 03 1997 14:01)
@DFW Airport

I take this opportunity to offer my sincere thanks to you for your decision to not respond to my posts. I am sure that you have not the
slightest clue as to how many on this site would love to have you bestow the same privilege on them.

(Wed Sep 03 1997 14:04)
@Gold,Silver, Plat. Stocks
Been closely following some of the Gold, Silver, Platinum mining stocks I've seen recommended here. Movement today is primarily down. SSRIF -6%, IPMCF -2.5%, SWC -.6%, ABX -.3%, PDG -1.9%, others unchanged on low volume...

(Wed Sep 03 1997 14:06)
Thorazine might help.....

(Wed Sep 03 1997 14:09)
LGB - In response to your post last night outlining some of your beefs: It seems that you are carrying alot of bitterness and anger toward people who you feel let you down some time ago. Recently your brother has had a bad experience with 'advisers'. Who here wouldn't be offended by that? Particularly with regard to kin.

There are a number of issues which come out of this, some of which we hear from you in your posts. You seem to be on a vendeta to avenge yourself against anyone who looks to you like Ruff, et al. You are obviously very hostile to those you consider wrong and 'dangerous'. You want pay back, no? You are taking a place of power and striking out against your enemies.

Most of us have had bad experiences with someone we looked up to and were, one way or another, led astray by. It hurts a great deal. At some point every person must come to some peace with their past and in a way 'forgive' those who they feel have wronged them. The only alternative is to be caught in a strangle hold of bitterness, resentment and anger.

Unfortunately our own naive desire for comfort and security in the world often makes us vulnerable to strong voices that speak to those concerns. In other words we are part of the problem. That's hard to admit. Another problem we face in using advisers is there is no score card for these people so we are forced into an emotional decision based on feelings rather than on facts.

This is my response to your communications here. In opening yourself to us a bit and describing some of your issues we saw more than a guy who is just on a tear. This is a personal reply; no attempt to psycho-analyze you, OK. Just reflecting a bit on these issues myself.

(Wed Sep 03 1997 14:18)
I'm sure there is truth in some of your observations. If you read Salinger's novel "Cathcher in the Rye" that's the way I feel at times. If I was standing at a fork in the road, one leading to a washed out bridge, one leading to the destination, and I saw a sign there poitning cars to the washed out bridge, I might feel compelled to put up a sign of my own, People get badly hurt from advisors at times, though ultimately the responsibility does rest with the individuals of course....

(Wed Sep 03 1997 14:19)
@Rockefeller Center, Manhattan, New York
A young girl, who sat next to me in a coffee shop, was reading tens of newspapers. I read only NY Times about the Diana's death and have concluded that this murder is politically correct. If she had been pregnant, then ( 1 ) it would easily trigger a war in the Middle East and end up with millions of death and economic turmoil. The enemy of Arab is the Arabs. ( 2 ) The future king of England has Moslim half-brothers ( cute and funny ) . Di's liberalism has gone too far. It is politics but not a soap opera.

I cannot post in this new format. This is my second attempt. Why?

(Wed Sep 03 1997 14:25)
@ Who Cares??
The End ( of Arawata Bill )

So you got it at last, Bill,
The razor edge that cut you down.
Not in a gully, nor on a pass,
But in a bed in town.

R.I.P. where no gold lies,
Only in our own questing soul,
Rich in faith and wild surmise.

You should have been told, Bill,
Only in you was the gold.
Mountain and river paid you no fee.

Mountain melting to the river
River flowing to the sea.

Dennis Glover

(Wed Sep 03 1997 14:32)

Read about a new addition to the PDG/KRY saga. At least they are fighting for something of value.

(Wed Sep 03 1997 14:40)
You can be pretty funny at times.
The point:
Based on his understanding and study of the markets, Puetz feels that crash is inevitable. Based on your understanding and study of the markets, you feel that we will have a minor correction, and that buying on dips is the way to go. People can choose to listen to your or Puetz' advice. Great! The truth usually lies somwhere in between.
I will point out that Puetz never attacked, nor insulted you. It is of great importance that you start behaving properly and not attack anyone. The manner of your delivery detracts form your message. Be a good boy and listen to me.

(Wed Sep 03 1997 14:43)
7 Habits
In these uncertain economic times, it may be time to look inside
ourselves for shifting our paradigms of thinking to better cope
with what lies ahead. I have been reading THE SEVEN HABITS OF HIGHLY
EFFECTIVE PEOPLE by Dr. Stephen Covey and have found it very
enlightening and full of implementable strategies for living.

(Wed Sep 03 1997 15:00)
LGB and ALL - We all are efforting to do just what you ( LGB ) describe. Some go this way and some that. Mr. Puets has his system which he tweaks. Each of us has ours. We are trying to make sense of this crazy world we all live in; this includes markets, etc. There is alot of emotional investment that each of us has in our own models. The last thing ANY of us needs is someone being aggressive in embarrasing our efforts. That's for everyone to hear. The give and take in our conversations should be considerate of these tender areas. This is not about winning or losing, being right or wrong; its more important than those things. We are struggling to live and we all need the help of others in doing that.

May it be suggested that we all do our darndest to be constructive and helpful toward each other even in the midst of our various disagreements? I think that means that we compare notes, note differences and share some funny jokes ( not at others expense ) to fill in the gaps. It would be nice if we could apologize to each other in an attempt to smooth over the past few weeks. That would be a start.

(Wed Sep 03 1997 15:03)
Miz --- PLEASE! 'D' was out having a 'good' time. Everyone got plastered. The same thing happens to hundreds if not thousands of people in the good ol' U.S. of A. every year. They drove too fast, were too drunk, and just plain stupid and arrogant. They were the 'upper crust'. They died for it. Do you think, seriously, that ANY law enforcement type would pull THEM over and arrest them for driving under the influence??? HELL NO! No conspiracies, PLEASE! What you saw demonstrated was stupidity and arrogance too the MAX. A 'Benz' doesn't crumple like that one did at city speed limits. Enough said...........

(Wed Sep 03 1997 15:06)
5,000 years of history notwithstanding
Gold takes back seat in a crisis

By Stephen Wyatt, Washington

In the early 1980s, gold would have roared higher on the back of collapsing Asian equity markets and plummeting Asian currencies. But not now.

(Wed Sep 03 1997 15:48)
Worth Noting @ Information *New Era 1950*
The Celler-Kefauver Amendment to the Clayton Anti-trust Act of 1914
"puts teeth" into the Clayton Act by curbing mergers of USofA business
firms. Written by Rep. Emmanuel Celler, 62, ( D N.Y. ) and Sen. Estes
Kefauver, 47, ( D. Tenn. ) , the new law stops companies from buying up
stock in other companies, but large corporations will find other ways to
achieve mergers and the number of mergers in years to come will dwarf
this year's 219.

1960 - President Eisenhower acts to curb a rising deficit in the nation's
balance of payments and a drain on U. S. gold reserves. He orders a
reduction of government spending abroad November 16 and the Defense
Department 9 days later takes steps to limit sharply the number of
dependents accompanying servicemen stationed abroad.

President Eisenhower warns against the "military industrial complex" that
works to maintain high levels of spending for defense establishment, but
President-elect Kennedy will push through measures that increase military

1960 -U.S. corporate mergers total 844, up from 219 in 1950 when Congress
passed the Celler-Kefauver amendment to strengthen the Clayton Anti-Trust
Act of 1914.

1966-The United States has 2,377 corporate mergers, up from 844 in 1960.

Mastercard has its beginnings in the Master Charge credit card introduced
by New York's Marine Midland Bank at the urging of Buffalo banker Karl H.
Hinke 60, to compete with BankAmericard. The card, is available to
customers without charge.

1967 - Master Charge card holders number 5.7 million, by 1976 there are
40 million card holders, charging up to $13.5 billion.

1967 -The United States has 2,975 corporate mergers, up from 2,377 last

(Wed Sep 03 1997 15:56)
@DFW Airport
Your post at 15:00 contains some gentle fatherly advise that we all can relate to. Bless you sir for having said that.The past few weeks dont need smoothing over, they are history and thankfully they are gone.
We all know what this site needs.

(Wed Sep 03 1997 16:01)
Deutsche Morgan doing the buying.

(Wed Sep 03 1997 16:16)
PoetryNook3, @ Sheller, Puetz
Two nameless advisors from Mars
Based predictions on Sun, moon, and stars
Years of predicting "Crash",
Cost their followers "CASH",
And so now they are selling Used Cars...

(Wed Sep 03 1997 16:17)
Sorry, I just can't help myself!!

George Cole
(Wed Sep 03 1997 16:19)

Fidelity's Lynch says S&P500 stocks now overpriced

WASHINGTON, Sept 3 ( Reuter ) - Fidelity Management & Research vice chairman Peter Lynch said on Wednesday current
prices of big corporate stocks are overpriced.

``Is the market fairly overpriced? Not on a 10- and 20- year basis but they are right now,'' Lynch told reporters at a conference
here hosted by Friedman, Billings, Ramsey & Co.

Lynch emphasized that corporate profits continue to grow by about a nine percent annual rate, adding that over time stock prices
will continue to rise.

He indicated that we may be entering into a new stage of market volatility.

``Maybe we are entering into a new volatility stage. I don't know, but I don't care,'' he said in keeping with his long-term
investment strategy.

(Wed Sep 03 1997 16:20)
Royal Oak Mines is the most undervalued gold mining stock. Today's volume in Amex exceeded over 1.167 million shares - up 1/8 U.S. - can't divulge more.
Look out for their 44% owned Asia Minerals, good news to be announced soon.

(Wed Sep 03 1997 16:22)
@Public Library at 53 St, Manhattan
Panda, sorry. New Yorkers are cool, especially, the teenagers. No 'D.' OK. But, the gold price and the Asian stock market drive me even crazier. Where are the fundamentals?

I failed in posting this. What is wrong with this new format of kitco?

(Wed Sep 03 1997 16:25)
Amd what is that which the site needs Uris? A SQUELCH button is what you're alluding to? Huh! Huh!!! FIne with me Uris, some folks like a little color and humor and dissent in life, some prefer the party line. For party liners, a squelch button would do the job.

Personally, I think the site is just fine the way it is! Seriously guy's, I enjoy all the info. posted here, whether I agree with advice or not. Lot's of good posts and resources. My philosophy, is that you can never have too much information, in fact that's why I lurked here 3 months before posting. I insatiably devour every scrap of info I can find on the markets, and a few other subjects of interest to me. Just feel a need to add a little balance on the theory , philosophy side is all, if it get's redundant, acerbic, litigous, etc. from time to time, well that's how ideas are efficiently exchanged.

I recommend The "Skeptical Inquirer" site for anyone baffled by my particular way of thinking and interaction on matters of analysis.

(Wed Sep 03 1997 16:27)
just parroting
3 favourite Livermore quotes

"I always take my loss the moment I am convinced I am wrong."

"Following the dictates of experience may possibly fool you now and then, but not following them invariably makes an ass of you."

"The big money in booms is always made first by the public - on paper, and it stays on paper."

3 Favourite Buffet ( Jimmy ) song titles:
My head hurts, my feet stink and I don't love Jesus.
Let's just get drunk and screw.
Life is just a Tire swing.

(Wed Sep 03 1997 16:28)
The trend has changed.
WASHINGTON, Sept 3 ( Reuter ) - Fidelity Management & Research vice chairman Peter Lynch said on Wednesday current
prices of big corporate stocks are overpriced.
Lynch emphasized that corporate profits continue to grow by about a nine percent annual rate, adding that over time stock
prices will continue to rise.
Go Gold

(Wed Sep 03 1997 16:32)
You seem to be a taker, rather than a giver. Where are your links?

(Wed Sep 03 1997 16:39)
I apologize Goldbug, you're absolutely correct, I was just off looking up the site in my bookmarks. The "Skeptical Inquirer" site is

I recommend reading all their past issues, fascianting interesting stuff.

(Wed Sep 03 1997 16:39)
A disaster in the making....if it goes ahead or doesn't...
The efficacy of the European Central Bank faces a severe test from the varied monetary policy transmission mechanisms
throughout the EU, which adds to the debate over how strong or otherwise the Euro will be.

(Wed Sep 03 1997 16:47)
@big island
LGB: since it seems to be a slow day for comments I'll ask a "technical" question.How do you post a link? I failed cut & paste in kindergarten.

(Wed Sep 03 1997 16:47)
@Allen, and all, Allen's 15:00
OK Allen, since I see a building consensus here, and since your post fell directly on the stroke of the hour ( a sure market indicator I think! ) I'll follow your advice. I apologize to Puetz, aand all others if I have been offensive, too prolific, off topic, mean spirited, etc. and I will TRY to tone it down OK? Keeping in mind of course that some humor and critical analysis of certain points of view will be in my posts, else life would simply not be worth Living! Now, to honor this new commitment, I'll post only one more time today ( unless someone attacks me yet again in which case I can't make any solid guarantees... ) , and that final post will be a serious market question directed to Mr. Cole, a man whose opinions and analysis I respect.

Yellow Jacket
(Wed Sep 03 1997 16:51)
GOLDBUG99: I'm glad RYO is finally moving after three weeks of sitting around. I too agree it's undervalued and I saw it as the best buy in the non-spec category.

(Wed Sep 03 1997 16:52)
@GeorgeCole, Silver question
George, this may sound basic, I'm sure it's been discussed here before, but I have a fundmaental silver question. Do you believe that future falling demand for silver due to digital photography revolution, will be more than offset by the increasing demand in third world nations with rapidly developing economies and enormous population bases. Especially India and China.

It seems to me that several billion people who suddenly have the money to take snapshots of their families ( bit not enough to buy computers and digital cameras ) could add a huge demand factor to the silver market, not to mention the added industrial use demand in these countries. George? Anyone?

Yellow Jacket
(Wed Sep 03 1997 16:55)
WATCHER: LurkingGBug is too busy counting the money he made in the stock market and making rhymes. Just type http:// and then the URL, i.e.

(Wed Sep 03 1997 16:59)
@big island
2...I'd go with the billion people theory. The digital revolution doesn't seem to be slowing down the photo print crowd. Digital still has a long way to go. What is the actual % of humanity that can afford a pc & digital tecnolgy hw/sw to go with it? Plus, when you're away from home...where ya gonna store all those rolls of film from the digital camera?

(Wed Sep 03 1997 17:12)
That wasn't nice Yellow Jacket! I was just trying to honor my "no more posts" commitment and trying to think of a way to tell Watcher how to do it! Contemplating the moral implications of posting under a different handle when you beat me to posting the asnwer!

(Wed Sep 03 1997 17:14)
Who is this guy Stern ? @ Chretien
Wednesday, September 3, 1997

Chretien wonders who Howard Stern is
"Who is this guy?" Chretien asked Wednesday when querried about Stern's comments.

(Wed Sep 03 1997 17:15)
..... LURKY @ 16:52 .....
That about sums it up.

(Wed Sep 03 1997 17:16)
I'M Howard Stern dammit! And I think all market investments should be based on the waxing and waning popularity of Strippers, Lesbians, and Baba Booey.....

Yellow Jacket
(Wed Sep 03 1997 17:19)
@check in from home later
I couldn't resist giving you a poke on the ribs. Did you really commit to no more posts? You couldn't keep your promise of just lurking the last time. How do you think you'll manage this time?? And to post under false names...tsk, tsk.

(Wed Sep 03 1997 17:19)
just waiting on a sideline
Well, this volatility in markets does not go well with my "trading and
market timing skills". I completely pulled out of equity stocks three
weeks ago, today I pulled out of FSAGX and FSPMX. I jumped in too
soon and I don't need up/down spikes - it never worked for me. I'll
just keep my money on a side and jump in when the trend establishes.
I might miss some up swings but I'll sure miss some additional down
turns in gold stox. I hate missing gains but I hate even more loosing;- )
Ready to go when it moves right way with more certainty - be it gold or
stocks ;- )

(Wed Sep 03 1997 17:24)
I think the digital revolution has increased demand for silver based films. Here is my rationale. If you look at the digital cameras today they are expensive and the resolution is not there. Yet they are stimulating interest in photography. The prefered method for professional photographers is to have their negatives or slides digitally scanned so they can easily be sold or placed on the internet. The internet has stimulated a lot of interest in photography. Everybody wants their fav photo up on the net. When they check out how to put up the best image they learn that a digital scan of the negative is the way to go. By the way there are excellent photo negative or slide scanners available for less than $1000.

(Wed Sep 03 1997 17:26)

There is a very good article today over at Morgan Stanley with respect to the 'too many third world workers producing too many goods with cheap labor leading us into a deflation, depression etc. etc'.

(Wed Sep 03 1997 17:40)
Scandels, scandels... All the conservatives keep wondering why Clintons popularity continues to grow, the more scandels, the more popular he seems to be. I'll let you in on a secret. The more Clinton looks like a crook, the more popular he will be! The reason? When you want someone to "redistribute wealth", you need a crook. That's what crooks do. Proving that Clinton is a crook will only make him more popular with those who support him!

(Wed Sep 03 1997 17:44)
@the scene
D.A. -- As I always 'suspected'! How can be otherwise if people do not earn enough to be able to purchase what they themselves make. Those are simply net exporting economies and rely solely on the ability of net importing countries to continue to do so. But the 'vagaries' of economics says there is such a thing as supply and demand. Since these same net exporting countries are not generating enough of their own demand, well, prices must fall and fall to push those goods. The net importing countries have bills to pay and can only soak up just so much of this 'stuff'! The employers forgot the other way to create demand. That is to pay the folks such that they too can be consumers! If they would SIMPLY do this!
Got to go for awhile. BBL

(Wed Sep 03 1997 17:45)
Go Ryo!! Will be almost completely unhedged by year end when Peggy Witte CEO says gold up. Asia Minerals is the diamond in wood pile/not to mention Fiji/Copperstone Timmins/Matachewan and Red Mountain. With Kemess complete co. expects 100,000,000 cash flow from property which will lead to development of many more low cost properties. Est cost per oz at Kemess 189US. Mineable reserves 17 mill book value over 2 US.

(Wed Sep 03 1997 17:58)
Looks like a dead cat bounce looking at Sept futures. I know they expire soon but currently at a discount to the physical.
So much momentum one day and to fall on its face the next.

(Wed Sep 03 1997 18:00)
Improving Fun-Duh-Mentals
Something to read. A shot at a US-Japan trade war, perhaps?

In addition to earnings bellow expectations, picking on Japan now could be really good news for the US paper and stocks, No!? Go Bulls, go!!!

(Wed Sep 03 1997 18:01)
Someone posted a sight where a newsletter in part discussed RYO it was

George Cole
(Wed Sep 03 1997 18:31)
LGB: I do not follow silver so will have to pass on your question. DA is one of the most erudite silver experts on this site. Vronsky's Gold Eagle site has a lot of material on silver.

Gold stocks soft again today. Yesterday's relatively stong showing seems to have been a fakeout. The trend will not be your friend until volume picks up and stays up.

(Wed Sep 03 1997 18:53)
Interesting market today. I liked the strength of silver--hi oh!! Also the fact that gold did not swoon seems encouraging at this state. My money is on a mild drop in the paper market tomorrow followed by our customary butt kicking come Friday.

(Wed Sep 03 1997 18:57)
From toady's New York Times:
Countries, like companies, take pride in rising stock prices. So
it is no surprise that both corporate and government officials see the
prolonged rise in stock prices -- to a level about 10 times where they
were over 15 years ago ago, when the bull market began -- as proof of
the superiority of the nation's economic system. And it is no surprise
that they are freely advising other countries that success will come
from emulation.

That description applies to the American market today, including
the belief that the country's economic success stems in part from the
ruthless efficiency that comes from giving companies flexibility to hire
and fire when they wish even while Europe, with greater protections
against layoffs, has lagged behind.

But the situation above was equally true of Japan in late 1989.
That stock market rose by an almost exactly equal amount, over almost
exactly the same period of time. And books abounded on Japanese
management theory. The unique combination of Government economic
management and a tradition of lifetime employment, we were told, had
produced the greatest economic success story ever.

Emulating Japan was fashionable in business circles around
the world, and many Japanese officials, both corporate and government,
were quite willing to explain other countries' failures by contrasting
those countries' systems with the superior Japanese ones.

The bull market ended badly, and is now almost universally
seen as having been a bubble. It damaged Japan's economy because banks
were left with huge quantities of bad loans that had been based on
inflated inflated asset valuations.

(Wed Sep 03 1997 18:58)
US stock market trend
Up, down or flat. Even Professional areticles do not mention why, but everybody have opinions. I think it is flat: a good news is the fundamentals of US economy is strong, and a bad news is the yeild in 1997 is even lower than in 1987. Can these be reasons?

(Wed Sep 03 1997 19:05)
Corporations @ The Welfare Line
Because both wars were for the liberation of the people from brutal
reaction, both resulted in huge gains for labor. Because both wars were
progressive, Big business, on the one hand, enjoyed the gold it harvested
as millions died, but, on the other hand, was fearful of the great
popular movements that the wars had brought into being.

In each case big capital tried to turn back the clock, undo the great
reforms won, cut wages, destroy the trade union movement, shift the costs
of an approaching depression to the people. The aftermath of war found
Congress giving away the people's resources to Big business.

A report of the Smaller War Plants Corp. to the U.S. Senate Committee on
Small Business ( 79th Congress,2d Sess. Document #206 ) describes the
" The increase in concentration which took place during the war was due
largely to the distribution of the great bulk of the war contracts to a
small number of great firms,"

The report says in calling attention to the 117 billion of dollars in war
contracts given to the one hundred firms. But in addition, the report
continues, 26 billions of dollars were put into new plants and new
equipment, directly from Federal funds.

"No less than 83.4 per cent of the value of the privately operated
publicly financed industrial facilities were operated by 168 corporations
The hundred largest corporations operated exactly 75 per cent of the
value of the Government owned facilities. Nearly half ( 49.3 per cent )
were operated by the top 25 corporations" ( p.49 )

In addition nearly two billions of dollars of taxpayer's money was given
American corporations for research, exclusive of the atom bomb. Sixty-
eight of the largest corporations received two-thirds of the two billions.

At the end of the war the 250 largest corporations took formal title to
about 70 per cent of the new plants built with the taxpayers' dollars.
They paid, after making billions in profits from their use, about sixty
per cent of the original cost.

Some 12,500,000 Americans, men and women of every faith, national origin,
color,creed, and political belief, joined the armed services, fighting
and dying from Kasserine Pass to the Coral Sea.

Before the war was over some 300,000 Americans were killed or missing in
action and 700,000 were wounded.

(Wed Sep 03 1997 19:16)
Watcher & LSteve :


In regards to the digital photography and Silver usage, I believe you're on the right track about the future of Silver in the area of "new users" in the future. I would like to expand on one of the points you brought up however, as it has real limitations. You mentioned the "scanner" to get the pictures into the digital "net" format. Yes, you are correct however, there is an equally effective and cheaper method available which I presently use. A video camera combined with a digital converter can not only capture live pictures and sound but can then also be used to capture the video into digital format. I beleive that using the digital cameras alone as a basis of comparison does not show the true state of affairs. Personally, I have only seen one digital camera and that was in a store. I have however seen too many video cameras to count. They seem to be the coming ( already here ) fad. They use no silver obviously and their pictures can be translated cheaply ( less than $200 ) into .JPG web type pictures. It certainly solves any storage problems that a traveller may have with the digital images as they would just take the pictures as with any vacation activity and then rerun the tapes when they return home and chose the appropriate images to "digitize". The future problem for silver is not digital cameras, it's video cameras and they're already here. Let's put tit this way gentlemen, If you want to see any part of my vacations for the last 3 years let me know and I'll send you some images. As a matter of fact, this is a view of my last vacation in April .... Enjoy...


(Wed Sep 03 1997 19:23)
A discussion of Japanese bank losses.

(Wed Sep 03 1997 19:32)
"Deflation, not reflation, is the global risk."

(Wed Sep 03 1997 19:33)
Dow/Gold Ratio 24.53

Strad Master
(Wed Sep 03 1997 19:35)
Conspiracy Theories
PANDA: You're absolutely right in your post to Miz regarding the tragic death of Princess Di. However, AP reported yesterday that the Middle East press is uniformly running articles charging a conspiracy to murder Di and Dodi Fayed. In Cairo, for instance, an article stated "only a child could believe it was merely an accident." Their reasoning...the Royal Family wanted to off Dodi because they were distressed by the possiblility of his marrying Diana which would make the stepfather of of the Royal Heir a Muslim. Needless to say, this is crackpot thinking, but if the entire Muslim world can be manipulated into believing it, there is really cause for concern.

(Wed Sep 03 1997 19:36)
The majority of people will never accept digital photography for the following reasons: 1. fear of having their images lost when a hard drive fails. 2: worries about having to convert their albums to new storage mediums ( do this one wrong your childs baby pictures are history ) . Basically, photos are simply to valuable for most people to trust with their PC. Now, when cheap "photo quality" printers hit the market that can print digitial images on photo paper, then it might be time to worry.

(Wed Sep 03 1997 19:36)
to Miz on market trends
Miz: I see over and over statements that fundamentals of the US economy
are strong, and yet I dont see in these posts analysis to explain why
these fundamentals will remain strong, or correlation between
fundamentals and investors behavior, I think that investors react more
to financial fundamentals ( e.g., interest rate, bonds behavior, dollar
strength ) . more than economic activities, and these can be and are
manipulated by feds. At the same time some of these "good fundamentals"
spell the bad news for economy. E.g., how much will US export ( and
comany revenues ) suffer due to a strong dollar?
On the other hand lest take examples of just a few Wall Street high
fliers - Intel, Microsoft, Gateway. All these companies announced in
the last few month that their revenue projection are not so rosy as
market is drying out due to various reasons. Market reacted a sharp
decline ( 5-10% ) but in a few weeks everybody forgot about the "bad"
news and stocks of these companies keep rising. Oh well, cant say that
about Gateway - it just dropped 10% today but I bet it will be back
again. This tells me that investors act on "good news" from fed but
like to forget or disregard any bad news.

How long do you thing will these "good fundamentals" continue?

(Wed Sep 03 1997 19:37)

Dear Strad :

The problem you asked about ( the repost ? ) is a function of Netscape, not Bart. Netscape is asking permission to copy over the same site again as it realises that you may have just finished downloading the site and are asking to post "over" the previous successful download. It doesn't happen in MS Explorer as you can chose beforehand what level of checking you want however, Netscape seems to want to make really sure you know what you're doing. Keep on pressing yes and you'll be fine ( and refreshed! )


Mike Sheller
(Wed Sep 03 1997 19:41)
Digital Photography
FRONT, ET AL: Re Digital photography, I am in the advertising and promotion business, among other things, and it has been my experience that clients are increasingly requiring commercial photo studios to be digitally oriented. Rightly or wrongly, it is perceived that the digital format is cheaper and more efficient for catalog and studio setups. Things are at the point that, like graphic design activities, photo studios must either add digital capability or perish. As developments progress in this area, further inroads will be made against silver based photography. Consumer photography is perhaps another matter. At some point, the digital revolution will make things so easy that there will be two consumer photography camps - those who own computers will be heavily digital, while those who are computer illiterates will be using conventional film. As a silver follower, I would have to say that there is more to come from digital photography as far as taking away some of silver's thunder here. But at some point, the line between computer literate and illiterate will define, if temporarily, the balance point.

(Wed Sep 03 1997 19:48)

What is the accetable level for "cheap" printers to print digital images onto glossy paper in photo quality? Less than $300 ? A Cannon bubble jet will print onto glossy paper, in colour ( slowly for sure! ) for $273 including taxes. That'll get you photo quality pictures. The problem is that it's too slow at the moment to print out quality images. As to the storage of images in the PC, you're absolutely correct. People will not trust a harddisk. The video user usually just buys another 3 hour tape for $7 and away he goes to capture his experiences live and stores the old tape away for his kids to see.


(Wed Sep 03 1997 19:49)
Petronious, interesting post at 18:00. In addition to potential trade problems, I continue to get the sense that something really serious is going on in Japan. Could their banking problems be even worse than people think?

(Wed Sep 03 1997 19:50)
Digital photography
I believe in new technology and that digital photography have it's place,
however, it can never totally replace a print. Just like with text and
books. You will read a post on Kitco on your computer screen, but you
won't read your favorite book on computer screen. You can display you
snap shots on computer ( or any other screen ) but you will still enjoy
a traditional family photo album.
Can you see too many couples having their wedding pictures framed by
computer screen instead of nice frame hanging on a wall?

(Wed Sep 03 1997 19:50)
Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious Metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )

(Wed Sep 03 1997 19:59)
@ are you guys gettin ta me
I love my paper....just the feel of those stock certificates, with the paper almost radiating feelings of wealth and security ( ? ) ....Yeah, one of the basic tenets is DON'T fall in love with your stocks...Easier said than done....for me anyway!....especially if you've had em a long time,like My DRIPS....Over ten years.......My oldest holding ( FRO formerly RTC ) is like "family" ( sick,ain't it! ) ....but you don't know my family...snicker...snicker...Back to the to make a long story short,a coulple of months ago I bought 1 thousand shares @ 21 and intended to put em in DRIP with its brothers+sisters...BUT...Maybe this site is gettin ta me er when FRO just climbed back to 23,I suddenly thought to myself that I can sell and take a reasonably quick 1,700+ $ profit and actually HAVE somethin in my pocket or I can put it in DRIP and hope the stock market doesn't go totally to hell....guess I'm now nervous enough that I opted out for that small profit....and more cash reserves for when the right buying opportunity comes along ....The wife needs the phone....I'm bein KICKED off...

(Wed Sep 03 1997 20:00)

Miro, Of course, you're correct. Couples want to see their wedding album pictures in an album. Absolutely no diagreement there. The discussion is how does one make the picture? In todays world, I can create an image on glossy paper that you couldn't tell wasn't made the normal way through the use of a normal camera and silver processing. The final outcome will still be a picture that the family can enjoy forever, it's just whether I used any silver to create it. The main reason I can see for the commercial move towards digital is the cost of a photo shoot and the fixing of imperfections in the computer later on without having to reshoot. That's just a guess mind you as I'm not into this game any more as a professional ( used to do weddings in my younger days ) so if anyone has anything about the commercial side, jump in....


(Wed Sep 03 1997 20:02)
Clintonite ( 17:40 ) : Damn! I liked that one a lot! "It takes a crook to redistribute the wealth". A profound observation but this time it's somewhat muddled. With CLinton, the redistribution is going to the "suits and big cigars".

(Wed Sep 03 1997 20:15)
to Front
Front: Agreed on ease of "correcting" digital images through imaging
software. Some years ago I was in digital imaging business ( security
applications ) We had a lot of fun going to a trade show, taking a shot of
our competition and "improving" it any imaginable way ;- )
I don't follow the technology right now, printing was expansive and slow
and I believe the traditional process is still cheaper and faster. I am
sure it'll change.

(Wed Sep 03 1997 20:15)
@...following Eldorados theme on LDC's economies
Agree. The Tigers and other lesser developed countries may be growing at superior rates but they still are feudal societies with a few elites controlling everything. Hong Kong may be the best example of a fuedal society with a capitalist veneer ( Milhouse, what's your take on this ? ) .

The gold price didn't blink when the Asean currencies and stks tanked because the truth is they ( the economies of the Tigers ) don't matter in the greater scheme of things. These economies are closely held businesses. Any aide will end up in the pockets of the rich and politically connected with a few drips going to the poor folk.

If the US could pull a much larger ( relative to Tigers ) Mexican banking /financial system out of trouble a few years back they certainly could write a check for small change to pick these minor league over-rated dictatorships out of financial harms way without the US buck skipping a beat.

The slaves in these economies are working overtime to make clothes for WalMart and solder electronics onto Acer or Daiwa motherboards. Until the capitalist masters of these LDCs loosen their purse strings and let the people earn enough to spend "and" save the economies of these countries will be stunted and focused on operating leverage and exports for survival.

The backlash of LDC's cheap labour was encountered during the NAFTA ( North American Free Trade Agreement ) debates. The Mexican elite were the BIG winners while many Canadian and American workers in light manufacturing jobs lost their jobs to much lower paid Mexicans.

At first blush one would think that exporting CanAm jobs to Mexico was important to help build this 3rd world country but we fail to evaluate who the BIG winners were and the cost of throwing CanAm blue collar workers to the dogs. We are reminded that Mexico has a big export industry called drugs and 'matida' is the offcially sanctioned practice of graft and corruption.

Although 'some' Mexican workers have certainly benefitted from NADTA jobs in reletive terms the major beneficiaries were the elites and the BIG losers were the CanAm taxpayers who had to mop-up the social costs of displaced USA/CDN workers.

I might add that NAFTA didn't stop the flood of Mexicans moving into the US SouthWest. I understand that California taxpayers are bleeding from Medicaide payments to support the large immigrant community many of whom are illegals.

This post is not against poor people. It points, instead, to the folly of economic policies that propose equalization type programs ( NAFTA ) that result in social disharmony at home and pecuniary private profiteering by US/CDN companies and domestic Mafia who are exploit 3rd world workers, and to some degree, child labor, in the name of trade liberalization.

(Wed Sep 03 1997 20:21)

I know just what you mean about the "improving" of images. Heavens, Strad has a picture of me with hair believe it or not! Of course, I put it onto the picture before he had a chance as I just knew he would to get back a t me but geez, some things are letter left undone! You're correct about the timliness and costs. I can do it but it's costly and takes a while. Soon enough though, it'll get quicker and cheaper as you mentioned. Progress? I don't know, there's something to be said for passing around the albums isn't there ! But if they ever make it better than Silver processed, look out and sell your Silver shares !


Mike Sheller
(Wed Sep 03 1997 20:31)
Front & Miro
You've both touched on the other important factor for digital imaging over conventional film in commercial studio shoots ( which make up a huge portion of professional photography ) . That is the adjustment of levels, contrast, color hue, saturation, and etc, etc, in programs like Photoshop and others. Digital images can also be transmitted to clients who are off premise from studios. Corrections and adjustments can be made from a distance with no time wasted in processing chromes, or messengering images for approval. Just as professional graphics is now about 99% digital ( mostly Mac OS based ) , so too will pro studio photography be closing in on a hefty percentage before long. As technology improves, and costs for expensive studio cams, and digital backs for studio standards like Mamiyas, Hasselblads, Bronicas, Linhofs, etc get cheaper, we will see at least an 80% level for digitally equipped pro studios. The improving technology will filter ( no pun intended ) down to civilian consumer cams, and the day will come when a third to half the standard pocket cameras will be digital.

(Wed Sep 03 1997 20:33)
@...remember Pearl harbour ?
Senior Economics ( Japan ) Ministry officials that the US buck rise is no problem and - contrary to past comments by the Jap Prime Minister - about right. Consequently, the US buck did not bounce much off the high 122 YEN mark.

I am reminded of Dec7/41 - the Day of Infamy - when the Japanese launched the greatest decisive surprise attack destroying much of the US Pacific fleet in modern history. The Japanese Ambassador delivered the declaration of war to the US State Dept. "after" the attack on Pearl Harbour.

I admire the Japanese and their business tactics. I expect that the Japanese Ministry of Economics will reign-in the US buck when it serves their purpose. I understand that the Nikkie needs to stay above 18,000 for at least the end of September for bank reporting reasons ( anyone have clarification ? ) . October sure looks like a good candidate for the US buck to correct and the US stk markets to follow suit. Gold may bounce back to at least $340- $350 range - pre RBA gold dump price range - in time for Christmas season.


(Wed Sep 03 1997 20:42)
Panda, Thanks for the input, I know what you mean about projects. I had fun yesterday but rest of week is work and gettin' caught up. Will check out SPY/MDY; options? When I get the nerve and the curve! Best wishes on your trades. I'm probably out for the rest of week unless I get inspired, except for the gold/silver stocks, they're just laying around like old dogs anyway and I don't have the heart to kick'em!; ) )

(Wed Sep 03 1997 20:46) is for those who could afford it
Remeber, most of the India/China market is populated by poor people. The Korean miracle didn't make Kodak a better investment. The silver process may eventually give way to lower cost and more affordable processing techniques. I understand that the use of silver in photographic processing has been steadily reduced over the past 25 years - any photographers out there that can confirm this ?

Finally, the early fast-growth and acceptance of comsumer photography in the G7 societies developed without the competitve alternative of affordable consumer video cameras and VCRs. This is no longer the case. Also, the 3rd world is keen on first getting a TV set and satellite dish - VCRs and video cameras with instant results may be a natural progressive instead of still photography with delayed and expensive processing costs.


(Wed Sep 03 1997 20:48)
@early returns
Nikkei 225 down 142.11 ( 0.76% ) U.S. Dollar down 0.34 versus Yen @ 120.48..
and weak versus most other currencies....EBN Gold up .15 and Dec. Gold up .30 @ 3-2-5.30.....there's that damn # again...*@#&^#%$ still haunted by the day as puttin that stock certificate in the mail was almost like losing "family"....bye little buddy...bye...

(Wed Sep 03 1997 20:54)
@silver fotos
It took 20 years or so to go from 45 records to 33's to 8 tracks to cassettes to CD's.

Computers: went from 100mb to let's see...I was just in costco and saw a 9.5 gigabyte HD for less than the 100mb we had less than 10 years ago ( non-inflation adjusted comparison ) .

I suppose if tech doesn't slow then maybe there will be enough silver left over after the demise of silver film to turn the markets back into bi-metal money....

(Wed Sep 03 1997 20:55)
Literacy R Us
A good read for gold & silver bugs.
Money - A History edited by Jonathan Williams ( 10 writers contributed )
ISBN 0-312-16602-8 Copyright 1997

Gives an excellent history on currency through the ages and the important part silver and gold play in it. A little dry at times. Gives a good view on money in various societies throughout the world and during various periods. The pattern of money usage is essentially the same. The one constant is the high value of gold in most societies.

The inevitable hand of government control of money is shown and the reaction of people to it ( & why government simply cant regulate money ) .
An interesting point of the book that repeated is when money ( usually the gold or silver used to make it ) was in short supply the Emperors & Presidents resorted to debasing the coinage. Citizens are then forced at gun-point to use the debased currency. And like Kitcoites, people inevitably turned to gold. Things dont ever change much.

(Wed Sep 03 1997 21:10)
in sack-o-tomatoes
All: What with all the accusations lately about the implied immorality of knowingly or unknowingly leading nave investors to their ruin, I began wondering where the greatest danger to the greatest number of people ( novices and pros alike ) really lies. Is it with that lone voice in the wilderness, leading his small rag-tag army of goldbugs around the desert, or is it with the regiments of bull-market Pied Pipers, each marching their own legions of starry-eyed followers to and fro on the battlefield? Dunno, myself. But I suspect the blood spilled by the former group will be measured in cups, whilst that spilled by the latter will be a veritable sea that will engulf many more people than those on the field of battle.

Strad Master: I once worked for a professor of medicine who told me that if a panel of blindfolded psychiatrists from the West were to examine a typical Arab adult, the diagnosis would uniformly be that the patient was a sociopath in the moderate to advanced stages of psychosis, clearly, a mistaken diagnosis. And if you reversed the roles of patient and psychiatrists, i.e., allowed a blindfolded panel of Arab psychiatrists to examine a Western "patient," the diagnosis would be similar. I think it has a lot to do with language. It shapes our thinking. There is an old saying that goes something like this, "Learn another language, gain another soul." If the thinking processes of OTHER HUMANS seem so alien to us, we'd better all pray that we never encounter technologically advanced extraterrestrials.

(Wed Sep 03 1997 21:11)
American Free Enterprise @ Private Collectivisms
President Roosevelt warned in 1938, the depression which had meant suffer
ing for the people had meant opportunity for the great corporations.

Monopoly was steadily increasing in power and concentration. On April 29
the President told Congress:

"The statistical history of modern times proves that in times of depress-
ion concentration of business speeds up. Bigger business then has larger
opportunities to grow still bigger at the expense of smaller competitors
who are weakened by financial adversity."

The President said that many corporations pretending to be independent
were in fact a part of secret trustified conbinations.

"Close financial control, through interlocking spheres of influence over
channels of investment, and through the use of financial devices like
holding companies and strategic minority interests, creates close control
of the business policies of enterprise which masquerade as independent
units. That heavy hand of integrated financial and management control
lies upon the strategic areas of American industry. Private enterprise
is ceasing to be free enterprise and is becoming a cluster of private
collectivisms; masking itself as a system of free enterprise after the
American model, it is fast becoming a concealed cartel system after the
European model."

The government National Resources Committee reported in 1939 that the
nation's economy was largely controlled by eight comparatively small
groups of men "by no means independent of each other" The eight groups,
controlling $61,000,000,000 of investments in industrial corporations,
railroads, banks, and public utilities, were Morgan-First National,
Rockefeller, Kuhn, Loeb, Mellon, du Pont, the Chicago group, the
Cleveland group.

(Wed Sep 03 1997 21:25)
@Strad Master
I have had many British and Moslim friends, and I know how they feel.

(Wed Sep 03 1997 21:28)
Fundy: Regarding your question from 9-2-97 @ 18:34 -- mid-September is the time-frame I expect the stock market to make its final peak, before crashing. Most crashes span a 2-to-3 week period. I expect the market to crash between mid-September and early-October.

(Wed Sep 03 1997 21:34)
Hey you big A-Hole! Stand up and fight like a man!!! I've seen bigger cajones on my nephews hampster! YOUR market analysis sucks almost as bad as your A** sucks canal water!!!


just wanted to see if you were serious about you Second to the last post ( the part about having to defend yourself against personal attacks and such ) I'm pokin' FUN at ya'... ;- )

(Wed Sep 03 1997 21:35)
@ oven
Program trading + irrational exuberance + sheep investors = BOO!

(Wed Sep 03 1997 21:39)
Lurking Gbug: Hey, good buddy!! I've been reading your postings from the past 2 days. Never knew you liked me so much. 75% of your posting have some reference about me. They go: something, something ... like Puetz. this and that ... like Puetz. blah, blah, blah ... like Puetz. You've got quite a fetish for me.

By the way, I'm still recommending December S&P put option. I bought quite a few of them for myself today. However, only use money you can afford to lose.

Also, you recently said something to the effect that you like the Kitco chat-forum because it gives you a chance to un-wind after a stressed-out work-day. Boy!!! Judging from you postings, I'd hate to see you when you were wound-up and tense!!!!

(Wed Sep 03 1997 21:44)
FWIW:Altera Corp. raised to buy from attractive at Robertson Stephens.

(Wed Sep 03 1997 21:46)
@hurricane season
Yep, I thought so...I heard thunder, smelled ozone, checked Kitco and Puetz had posted. Clearly a sign that a high/low frontal is brewing...can LBG be far from here?

(Wed Sep 03 1997 21:48)
APH: You may be right about the crash following the 1987 pattern, rather than the 1929 patten. Both patterns were very similar. However, 1929 had a longer 2nd leg down than 1987. The rebound from the 2nd leg down lasted 5 days in 1929, and 9 days in 1987.

If we are following the 1987 script, then the final peak may come EARLIER than the September 16th date that I have been projecting as the final selling opportunity. If we follow the 1987 script, the market will move sideways for about a week before the crash begins.

Yet, there is still a chance that we are still of leg-2 down. In that case, the market must move down sharply over the next 4-to-5 trading days -- say to DJIA 7000 or lower, before making a 5 day rally into the final high on September 16th.

In either case, nothing has changed to alter the pattern we have seen during previous crashes.

(Wed Sep 03 1997 21:48)
@Miro, trend
I have printed out your post and read it many times. I went through the same points in the gym: Real economics vs. monetary economics, time, etc. My boss says not to touch bearish factors because clients do not like 'bearishness' even if it is true. I have totally lost. Tomorrow is another day. Who said that?

(Wed Sep 03 1997 21:49)
Roebear -- The SPY and MDY are depository receipts for the S&P-500 and the S&P Midcap. They trade like a stock. They can be sold short, even during a 'down tick' ( falling market ) . They are a convenient way to play the indices. No futures, no options. If you feel like a bull, or a bear, these are an easy way to play the indexes.

(Wed Sep 03 1997 21:50)
@ WW's utopia
U.S.Dollar continues its slide versus Yen....down 0.39 @ 120.43....EBN Gold up .20...Weather: dark with showers....

(Wed Sep 03 1997 21:52)
Ted: I have had similar feelings at times past comparable to your little buddy, although it has usually been a check to my broker going in the mail instead of stock certificates!: ) )

(Wed Sep 03 1997 21:52)
El Nino
AP Kodiak: El Nino, the ocean current change that brings warmer water, is bringing fish that normally cruise tropical latitudes into the ocean off Kodiak.
About a month ago, Kodiak fishermen caught a tuna - a fish that normally doesn't range this far north.
A tropical fish called a pelagic armorhead - normally found in the central Pacific - was pulled in recently. And there have been reported finds of California anchovies.
The reason? Unusually warm water temperatures.
In the Gulf of Alaska, surface readings have been up to 10 degrees higher than normal, according to meteorologist Russ Page.
Temperatures in the Gulf usually average about 54-55 degrees Fahrenheit. Last month he said, the readings went as high as 64 degrees.
Jim Blackburn, a fish biologist, said the pelagic armorhead probably thought Kodiak was part of its natural territory.
"The water here is really a lot warmer than usual," Blackburn said.
Joel Curtis, a technician for the National Weather Service, said he found California anchovies in the stomachs of salmon he caught in Yakutat Bay last month.
At the time, Curtis said, he recorded a surface temperature of 63 degrees Fahrenheit. The normal range is in the mid-50's.

(Wed Sep 03 1997 21:53)
Watcher: You got me a laughin'. Obviously, you are a very, very good weatherman. You know all about high pressure, low pressure, cold fronts, warm fronts, thunderstorms, hurricanes, ...........

Yellow Jacket
(Wed Sep 03 1997 21:54)
Lurking again?
Hmmm...Four hours and not a word from LGB. Maybe this time he's really serious about just lurking for a while.
TW: The info on RYO was old. Any links to news behing today's big purchase by ( as posted earlier? ) Deutsche Morgan?

(Wed Sep 03 1997 21:54)
Bravo Watcher, re your 21:46, you KNOW that LGB 's time to break self imposed silence MUST be close at hand!!

(Wed Sep 03 1997 21:57)
In the Wall Street Journal today: Corporate insiders are selling stocks at the heaviest pace since right before the early 1994 stock and bond market breaks. For every buyer, there's a seller. Lurking Gbug: Is it possible you know something about the present state of the market that corporate insiders don't? If so, please share it with us.

(Wed Sep 03 1997 21:57)
Good to see you again.

Yellow Jacket
(Wed Sep 03 1997 21:59)
Timing is everything!!!
Spoke 30 seconds too soon. Now if I can time my gold stock trades this well, I'll be able to brag like LGB before year's end!! OK...Welcome back LGB.

(Wed Sep 03 1997 21:59)
There was a young analyst Puetz
The market kept giving him fits
Calling for DOW's demise,
Caused a 3% rise,
So now Puetzke is saying "Oh Shitz!"

(Wed Sep 03 1997 22:01)
Re: SPY/MDY no wonder, thought they were stocks, boy do I feel like I just fell off the turnip truck, these are news to me. This oughta be fun. Thanks and good night!

(Wed Sep 03 1997 22:06)
Some stock markets peaked a week before the DJIA did on 8-6-97. For example, the German DAX Index peaked on 7-31-97 at 4439, before plunging 12% to 3906 on 8-29-97. It's only 1 week away from completing its 6-week topping pattern -- suggesting the present rebound may carry into next Wednesday, with the DAX recovering about 1/2 of its losses. Using the DAX as a guide, the global markets may not be able to hold out until September 16th, before the collapse begins.

Also on the global front, the catharsis in Japan suggests that the present rebound is nothing more than a bear-market bounce. Stay short stocks.

(Wed Sep 03 1997 22:10)
Could it be??? Could you be??? Go Baby Go??? Time will tell!! Tick-Tock, Tick-Tock! oh my!! Nothing like a seven dollar spot move...and we know that futures follow cash, always! :- ) ) be patient...NOT!


unless Bart is playing a CRUEL joke ;- )

(Wed Sep 03 1997 22:11)
All: With the DOW up only 14 on near 661 million shares, after up 257 on less, does this look like the beginnings of distribution? Good Night all!

(Wed Sep 03 1997 22:15)
OK Puetze my old friend, corporate selling huh? No I'm afraid I'm not going to have any enlightening comments, HOW ever, I have 2 questions for you re the "crash" scenario. No one's given me answers to these yet..

1 ) If you're looking for historical patterns, all the major crashes & downturns including 1987, 1929, included a number of STRONG economic neagatives prior to their occurance. Even if you don't believe Govt. numbers ( and I don't ) we STILL have a relatively low unemployment rate, low inflation, strong dollar, strong balance of trade, stable steadily growing economy, high foreign investment confidence, declining deficit, tax cut coming, high profits and productivity, low energy prices, plentiful energy and commodities, strong consumer confidence, increasingly diverse industrial base, etc.etc. ad nauseum.

Just WHEN in history ( you cycle buffs ) , did this economic climate, or anything even REMOTELY close, result in a crash? Certainly not in any of the previous crashes of the past 120 years. A REAL analyst would have to come up with some EXTREMELY powerful NEW indicators and rationale as to why this time will be so DRASTICALLY different than past historical crashes and Bear markets, no???.

2 ) Past market tops preceeding crashes have been prefaced by overwhelming optimism among "professional" investors, and the masses alike. Last week saw more Bears than bulls on Wall St. Definitely a classic sign that we're NOT on the brink. And many investors are becoming cautious, ( in spite of irrational 1 day blip! )

3 ) ( OK I said only 2, but you know.... ) No one has answered my question as to where they think the 20 billion or so pouring into mutual funds from 401K plans monthly, will go instead since this seemingly endless influx will continue as long as the jobs continue. And then we have foreign investor confidence in US market which is getting better all the time as well......since their own markets seem so much riskier .....

Come on, no smoke & mirrors about bogus Govt. figures. Even if they are adjusted for political "fudge" factors, the current economic conditions just simply DON'T WARRANT a crash, and have NEVER preceded a crash...

(Wed Sep 03 1997 22:16)
RJ...that new guy is trying the lymric thing...
There goes the neighborhood... :- (


Hey ted! thanks for the missive ;- ) how you feelin'?

(Wed Sep 03 1997 22:20)
@dorothy's house
RE: insider sell-offs. reminds me of that famous line by the good ole wizard of O'..."Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain!" If it does happen like Puetz suggests ( often convincingly ) ...then don't jump out of the balloon looking for your dog...As I recall there was only one pair of emerald slippers.

(Wed Sep 03 1997 22:23)
Hey EB, when did you grow a sense of humor anyhow? That's the spirit boy! And also, GO Platinum!! ( Doin better than the 49'rs will do without Steve Young or Jerry Rice, that's for sure dammit!... )

(Wed Sep 03 1997 22:35)
Eyes only: twit
I have never posted a derrogatory word on the net, but I feel this overwhelming need to do so in regards to your person.
Your attacks on Mr. Puetz are unacceptable; and only because he chooses NOT to fall into your childish dialog, does not mean that he is wrong, nor has a weak case. He has backed up his reasoning with fact at each turn, which is more than I can for you. You chastise him for being "out of step" on his ETA of events.......just remember that a month, quarter, or year IS NOTHING relative to the big picture.......the opera is not over 'till the fat lady sings.
I find it interesting that you and HEP CAT share the same exact agenda.....that of righting the world of investment advisors, as if YOU have something more to offer. Remember that this is a discussion group, where ideas are exchanged, and you have no moral right to attack this GENTLEMAN.
LGB, I have no doubt the you ARE Hep Cat; your dialogs are too similar and you go too far out of your way to describe insignificant so. Cal. events. Anyone who *really* is occupied in gainful employment or investing does not have the time nor inclination to constantly banter on as you do. You will recieve no further reply from myself.

To All: I apologize for this waste of space. It will not happen again.

(Wed Sep 03 1997 22:36)
Crash of 29
To add to the discussion on the crash of '29, McConnell Economic:fourth edition says:

"The optimism of the prosperous twenties had elevated stock markets speculation to something of a national pastime. This speculation had bid up stock prices to the point where they were decidedly out of touch with reality; this is, the prices of stocks were far beyond the profit-making potentials of the issuing firms. The necessary downward adjustment came with a vengeance in 1929. It was sudden, violent and cumulative."

(Wed Sep 03 1997 22:37)
You say tomato Quakle says Tomatohe? Here is a FUNNY page I have spent many an hour on! ANd the republicans have it all buttoned up...and pigs will go a flyin', again

I didn't know they traded tomatoes in Chicago...hmmmmmm...

Your 22:15 raises some of the same questions I have regarding the supposed crash/retracement. I wonder if there are ANY answers to your ponderance!?!?


Yellow Jacket
(Wed Sep 03 1997 22:38)
No more tops
PUETZ: I agree with your bear market bounce, but I think 9/15 is the day to watch due to the reports that will come out. WATCHER and ALL: I'm going to click my heels and repeat: "there's no place like bed..." Goodnight.

(Wed Sep 03 1997 22:45)
LGB: We've heard it all before, like in July just before the Dow tanked 700 points through the entire month of August! The market is just plain over-bought, perfect economy, blue skys, sandy beaches and bikinis not withstanding. 401k money must increase to keep the market going up. 20 billion per month got us here, but the prices are higher now. It will take 25 billion then 30 then 50 to just hold what we've got. It's called the law of diminishing returns. Are we all getting 5% raises? per month!? You are a rocket scientist? Do you think there is an escape velocity for the Dow? Have we achieved it? If not, what goes up will come down. We'll have to see if AG and BR have engineered adequate parachute sail for re-entry. I'm gonna make money here selling edgewises so everybody else can get a word in. : )


(Wed Sep 03 1997 22:46)
My favorite Football team...
Whoever is playing the forty-whiners!


(Wed Sep 03 1997 22:49)
Miz strong economic factors
Miz: Puetz posts 21:57, just supports what I said. Company insiders know
better what's real and how well will company perform in coming years.
Sure, some of it is "lets enjoy some of the gains", but the main thing
is they know better that the revenues and profits will not be there and
they better cash out before the market goes South. Been there, done that,
got that T-shirt!
Many of them told the market what will happen but the market and
investors do not listen!
( ) :

(Wed Sep 03 1997 22:50)
Corporation @ Welfare Canada
Corporate Welfare Sums

Deficit reduction may have won widespread support in Canada, but
businesspeople would make at least one big exception to the resulting
government cutbacks: assistance programs for, well, business. Truth told, a slight majority of corporate Canada reckons the size and number of programs should be increased, according to a poll done exclusively for Report on Business Magazine by Dun & Bradstreet Canada. Less than 13% figure such taxpayer assistance  from training programs to loans and export subsidies  should be scaled back.

But the poll, which sought the views of 584 business owners and senior
executives, also found that Westerners were far less enamoured of government assistance than those in Central Canada.  K.K.

Government assistance for business should be... ( % )

---------------Increased---------Decreased------Remain the same
British Columbia..35.1.............17.6..............45.9


(Wed Sep 03 1997 22:50)
S&P500 -75, NSDQ100 -80
US 30YR Long-Yield Up .008 ( 6.608 )
Asia Stock Market ( Hong Kong -210.37, Japan -75.90, Taiwan -227.30 )
US Dollar down against the Yen & Mark.

(Wed Sep 03 1997 22:56)
in sack-o-tomatoes
EB: WHAT!!?? You don't like the Niners? DUKES UP!!!

Definition: Paparazzi: n. A bunch of sleazy characters who chase around what is, for the most part, another bunch of sleazy characters.

(Wed Sep 03 1997 23:05)
Lurking Gbug: ANSWERS.....

1 ) None of the economic factors you listed has much to do with whether a market is about ready to crash, or not. However, 2 of those factors, the balance-of-trade and the federal budget deficit do tell a lot about the financial strength of our country. Both have been a huge drain to the capital markets for over 10 years. ( The budget deficit isn't anywhere near being balanced. Congress continues to throw items off-budget to make it lot like they are balancing it though. Just look at the increase in the Gross Federal Debt over the past year -- about $200 billion -- as reported in Barron's each week. ) A deteriorating financial condition has been an important precursor to crashes in the past.

2 ) Sentiment is still overwhelmingly bullish. As a contrary indicator, that's bearish. The poll you are citing is by Investors Intelligence -- it polls about 100 newsletters, and the bulls and bears are about equal . A larger sample is taken by the American Association of Individual Investors -- 50% bullish and 22% bearish last week, 47% bullish and 20% bearish the week before. Also, at the top on August 6th, sentiment was even more lopsidedly bullish. In previous crashes, this bullish sentiment weakened as the crash progressed, until it reached the opposite extreme at the time of the crash. We are not even close to lop-sided bearish sentiment at this time.

3 ) $20 billion in monthly in-flows into 401k plans -- That's nothing compared to the trillions of $'s in global margin calls that will come due once the markets decline significantly below 10% of the peak values. That should happen on the next market decline -- coming in a few days.

(Wed Sep 03 1997 23:06)
@ Malaysia KLSE composite
Malaysia down another 2.93% after being down 5.7% the day before...Seems like Mohamad is doing and saying all the wrong gov'ment will prop up market....foreign speculators are destroying the KLSE through their selfish ( No kiddin Mohamad ) actions and could give a hoot about Malaysia ( again, no kiddin Mohamad ) .....He's living up to his reputation of bein somewhat of a "loose cannon" and at age 71 he could get downright dangerous to the world equity markets....everything is increasingly so inter-related that it makes the "domino theory" so much more viable...

(Wed Sep 03 1997 23:06)
@ Malaysia KLSE composite
Malaysia down another 2.93% after being down 5.7% the day before...Seems like Mohamad is doing and saying all the wrong gov'ment will prop up market....foreign speculators are destroying the KLSE through their selfish ( No kiddin Mohamad ) actions and could give a hoot about Malaysia ( again, no kiddin Mohamad ) .....He's living up to his reputation of bein somewhat of a "loose cannon" and at age 71 he could get downright dangerous to the world equity markets....everything is increasingly so inter-related that it makes the "domino theory" so much more viable...

(Wed Sep 03 1997 23:15)
Treasury bond sold off late wednesday. After General Motors August sales results were above what Many had expected. ( possible acceleration in economic growth )

(Wed Sep 03 1997 23:30)
@ Employment Report
Remember kiddies....Friday is "the big one"...the Employment report..consenus estimate is for only 75,000 jobs created due to the UPS "thingy"....combine the Employment report+ recent fridays= VOLATILITY

(Wed Sep 03 1997 23:35)
Good answers Puetz...New questions: What is the interst rate on the national debt and where exactly does the monthly ( ? ) mortgage payment on it go? I guesstimated the amount must be about $350Bil/yr. That's some real dough for somebody. I believe I am speaking more to the federal reserve, not bond holders. This is probably econ 101 stuff for most of you but I don't believe I've ever heard the answer.

(Wed Sep 03 1997 23:35)
@ Puetz
Hey Puetz...ya proud of me....I sold some stox today......EBN Gold up .20 ....ditto Dec. Gold.....

(Wed Sep 03 1997 23:37)
It has been my misfortune to notice that, when the market declines ( with the exception the decline being due to a fear of inflation ) , precious metal stocks go out the window to. Unless something happens soon ( a break out in gold ) [boy, sounds like a prison story!], the XAU is looking very unhealthy. I've also noticed ( ! ) , that when stocks like NGC or WDEPY come up to a 'resistance' line on the charts, they inevitabley shy away from it, to the downside. Falling asleep here, good night all.

(Wed Sep 03 1997 23:41)
From the "All is well, stay calm" dept: A friend of mine who still admits to watching TV news said that no coverage was given in prime time to Borris Yeltsin's decision to retire. Instead the rage is that Princess story. US foriegn policy has put a lot of eggs in one basket regarding Russian policy. This my friends IS news and should serve as a "heads up".

(Wed Sep 03 1997 23:44)
Ted- From what I read this morning, overseas were selling the US dollar last night. Tonight it seems like Asiia stock market is sliding down and now US dollar just started to rise. IS it they are selling stocks and buying the US dollar. ( And is this what is expected for now. )

(Wed Sep 03 1997 23:45)
Asian stox heading further south led by Malaysian KLSE Composite down 5.09%...add that to the 5.70 loss the day before and you get 10.79% loss in less than two days....what constitutes a crash??? ...You "out there" Jin???....give us some feedback on what's happening to the KLSE.....

(Wed Sep 03 1997 23:46)
@one more thing....
The market internals look don't look bad at all. If one were expecting a crash, I would think that one of the early signs would be declining new 52 week highs and an increasing number of new 52 week lows. It isn't happening. Some of the big boys are getting hit. They've had a pretty good run. Mid caps and small caps are becoming more active. I still favor sector rotation turning in to a grinding bear. External shocks excluded! The big problem with inflation, is that the U.S. has succesfully ( so far ) managed to export it to Europe and Asia. And they have been willing to accept it. Until that game ends, gold will be a disappointment. O.K., here's the caveat. Those market moving job reports and other government things.....

(Wed Sep 03 1997 23:47)
ted ,,,mail box urgent.....

(Wed Sep 03 1997 23:50)
Just a thought about the Asian stock market decline. In the latest issue of Fidelity Focus, the cover story was a look back at 1987 and the crash thereof. In an attempt to raise cash without tanking US stocks, Fidelity started selling Foriegn holdings. Deja Vu all over again?

(Wed Sep 03 1997 23:52)
Hi Stalder!...Yeah, I think that's what we can expect for the near-term future....Asian equity +currency go down and money flies to U.S. dollar as a safe haven....A role gold already would be playing 10+ years ago...
....this feels like more than a correction in S.E. Asia as there are some real fundamental problems popping up all over the place...

(Wed Sep 03 1997 23:52)
Watcher @ 23:35
* This site may assist you.*

You will see three color graphics on federal government debt, debt per child, debt ratios, and a graphic showing the culprit. Other color graphics will show interest costs and international debt. At the bottom of the page, is a debt summary table, and a plan.

(Wed Sep 03 1997 23:52)

(Wed Sep 03 1997 23:57)
Puetz - I'm not sure how this market will unfold, what I do know is the market is historically weak from mid September until late October. Personally I wouldn't consider buying puts until the Sept. S&P closes the gap at 956 or closed under 900. At that point I'd check the pricing and buy whatever looks best.