Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

Kitco Inc. does not exercise any editorial control over the content of this discussion group and therefore does not necessarily endorse any statements that are made or assert the truthfulness or reliability of the information provided.

Strad Master
(Wed Sep 17 1997 00:00)
Quick rsponse
TO ALL WHO POSTED TO ME TODAY: I want to thank all of you for your comments. That's what makes this site ( under the best of circumstances ) a unique one. There is a camraderie that transcends the mere making or losing of money.
Thanks, too to those who posted the clock sites. I visited one ( AutoClock ) and downloaded it and it promptly screwed up my clock and I had a devil of a time trashing it 'cause it wouldn't close. Had to turn off the computer manually and restart with all the extensions off just to be able to re-set the time to normal. I'll keep at though, it was probably my fault.
EB: your stop-out point was well taken and something I never thought of before. I'm out of stocks, though so the point - for the time being, at least, is moot.
Anyway, I'd like to respond in greater detail to many of the points raised but I have a raging fever, sore throat, and feel really lousy right now. So...I'm taking the night off and will see y'all tomorrow. Hope the Tylenol kicks in soon.

Strad Master
(Wed Sep 17 1997 00:00)
Quick rsponse
TO ALL WHO POSTED TO ME TODAY: I want to thank all of you for your comments. That's what makes this site ( under the best of circumstances ) a unique one. There is a camraderie that transcends the mere making or losing of money.
Thanks, too to those who posted the clock sites. I visited one ( AutoClock ) and downloaded it and it promptly screwed up my clock and I had a devil of a time trashing it 'cause it wouldn't close. Had to turn off the computer manually and restart with all the extensions off just to be able to re-set the time to normal. I'll keep at though, it was probably my fault.
EB: your stop-out point was well taken and something I never thought of before. I'm out of stocks, though so the point - for the time being, at least, is moot.
Anyway, I'd like to respond in greater detail to many of the points raised but I have a raging fever, sore throat, and feel really lousy right now. So...I'm taking the night off and will see y'all tomorrow. Hope the Tylenol kicks in soon.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 00:03)
@ the bears camp
Observation: In over-night trading in Asia, 4 stock markets are trading higher, while China is down, Indonesia is down, Japan is down, Malaysia is down, Singapore is down, Sri Lanka is down, and Thailand is down.

What kind of response is this to the big DJIA rally in New York? Just maybe, New York is wrong.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 00:03)
@ the bears camp
Observation: In over-night trading in Asia, 4 stock markets are trading higher, while China is down, Indonesia is down, Japan is down, Malaysia is down, Singapore is down, Sri Lanka is down, and Thailand is down.

What kind of response is this to the big DJIA rally in New York? Just maybe, New York is wrong.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 00:04)
.....Earl - Where ya' been? .....

I think the story in the GC/PL spread is less meaningful now than in the past. That is the beauty of the current market; PL is going up for all the right reasons - supply/demand, its trading on its own fundamentals, entirely divorced from gold, well..maybe not entirely, but 90% +. Gold is falling because, outside of this group, nobody seems to want it. This is economics 101. Keep that chart updated though, there is a ton of money to be made in that spread when it starts to tighten. If the market goes the way I believe it will, the spread will top $150 by years end. The really fun trades were made last December, when the spread was zero. The long yellow, short white was a harder sell then, but my clients who took the advice are pretty pleased about it now. I admit, at a glance there is much more risk in the trade, but I think the gods are on my side with this one. I'm just ashamed that silver confounds me so. I made lots-o-$ on the way up, but it scares me here. Logic says that silver should fall

(Wed Sep 17 1997 00:04)
.....Earl - Where ya' been? .....

I think the story in the GC/PL spread is less meaningful now than in the past. That is the beauty of the current market; PL is going up for all the right reasons - supply/demand, its trading on its own fundamentals, entirely divorced from gold, well..maybe not entirely, but 90% +. Gold is falling because, outside of this group, nobody seems to want it. This is economics 101. Keep that chart updated though, there is a ton of money to be made in that spread when it starts to tighten. If the market goes the way I believe it will, the spread will top $150 by years end. The really fun trades were made last December, when the spread was zero. The long yellow, short white was a harder sell then, but my clients who took the advice are pretty pleased about it now. I admit, at a glance there is much more risk in the trade, but I think the gods are on my side with this one. I'm just ashamed that silver confounds me so. I made lots-o-$ on the way up, but it scares me here. Logic says that silver should fall

(Wed Sep 17 1997 00:05)
@the scene
Puetz -- I like your item 3 in that last posting; Stocks must keep going up or stocks must go down. I don't believe there will be much in the way of sideways action. At least unless it makes new highs. I also think if it does that, it'll have to do it quite decisively; No 'pandering' about, and then not look back! But if it should fail new highs in the above regard, then all hell is going to break loose as everyone who counts recognize it for what is. Best regards!

(Wed Sep 17 1997 00:05)
@the scene
Puetz -- I like your item 3 in that last posting; Stocks must keep going up or stocks must go down. I don't believe there will be much in the way of sideways action. At least unless it makes new highs. I also think if it does that, it'll have to do it quite decisively; No 'pandering' about, and then not look back! But if it should fail new highs in the above regard, then all hell is going to break loose as everyone who counts recognize it for what is. Best regards!

(Wed Sep 17 1997 00:07)
@ the bulls camp
And, of course, it goes without saying, the outlook for gold and silver remains very bullish. Once stocks turn lower, the metals will soar. That should be very soon -- before the end of this week.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 00:07)
@ the bulls camp
And, of course, it goes without saying, the outlook for gold and silver remains very bullish. Once stocks turn lower, the metals will soar. That should be very soon -- before the end of this week.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 00:10)
puetz: everyone makes mistakes. while its no sin to make an error, it may be a sin to willfully persist in it. I was lucky enough to devine from my work where the spoos were going in the very short term. It has not always been so. The memory of selling 2 cars on 4/28/97 and holding overnite for a 10 handle gap against me the next morning is ever present as a reminder. I took the loss, but I didnot sell them and hold overnite again
until 8/20/97. I did not persist in error. You are right about the final resolution of the present mania, but you are wrong in your timing. Though I could not see past today when I posted last nite, it is obvious after today that we willsee new highs very soon, probably within the next two days. We are at least several weeks away from the debacle you foresee. Good luck to you and to all Kitcoites. goodnite.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 00:10)
Eldorado: I think I'll call it quits for the night. I finally got someone to agree with me today. Snicker, snicker. And the day's just about over. 'Nite Eldo!!

(Wed Sep 17 1997 00:10)
puetz: everyone makes mistakes. while its no sin to make an error, it may be a sin to willfully persist in it. I was lucky enough to devine from my work where the spoos were going in the very short term. It has not always been so. The memory of selling 2 cars on 4/28/97 and holding overnite for a 10 handle gap against me the next morning is ever present as a reminder. I took the loss, but I didnot sell them and hold overnite again
until 8/20/97. I did not persist in error. You are right about the final resolution of the present mania, but you are wrong in your timing. Though I could not see past today when I posted last nite, it is obvious after today that we willsee new highs very soon, probably within the next two days. We are at least several weeks away from the debacle you foresee. Good luck to you and to all Kitcoites. goodnite.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 00:10)
Eldorado: I think I'll call it quits for the night. I finally got someone to agree with me today. Snicker, snicker. And the day's just about over. 'Nite Eldo!!

(Wed Sep 17 1997 00:14)
..... Wedgies all around .....
Surfs Up @ 23:56

Great picture! That's the way it looked - right down to the flying surfers. Saw lots of that airborne stuff yesterday. Looks fun, don't it?

(Wed Sep 17 1997 00:14)
..... Wedgies all around .....
Surfs Up @ 23:56

Great picture! That's the way it looked - right down to the flying surfers. Saw lots of that airborne stuff yesterday. Looks fun, don't it?

(Wed Sep 17 1997 00:15)
youngest kid
To everyone - My dad can'tt believe all the answers I got but he says to go to bed now. Thans everybody. SLicK - As gyvenu Los Angeles bet tikrai Northridge. VYTAS

(Wed Sep 17 1997 00:15)
youngest kid
To everyone - My dad can'tt believe all the answers I got but he says to go to bed now. Thans everybody. SLicK - As gyvenu Los Angeles bet tikrai Northridge. VYTAS

(Wed Sep 17 1997 00:27)
..... Yesterday .....
Here is a picture from the front page of today's OC Register. This was one of the smallers waves.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 00:28)
@the scene
RJ -- I remember a few short months ago when they wanted platinum even less than they wanted gold. Funny how fast that changed! Kind of like weather in some places; if you don't like it, wait ten minutes. What they don't like today they'll like tomorrow. Works like that in all markets. Generally, if you aren't watching the prices, you'll only know it after the fact.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 00:30)
Way cool! I posted my first graphic to this here group. Not as hard as I thought. Watch out, I may start posting some charts, then my girlfriend, my dog, my cat, my goldfish, you get the idea..............

(Wed Sep 17 1997 00:33)
..... Eldo .....

You got that right. Gotta' go, I'm watching the new version of Hamlet. Already watched adout an hour and a half - only 3 more hours to go......

(Wed Sep 17 1997 00:58)

Nikkei off about 70. Hang Seng unchanged. Seems they do not share Wall Streets optimistic appraisal of the situation.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 01:10)
Canada USofA @ Trade Actions eh! (Onside or Offside)
September 16, 1997

Canada warns of border chaos if U.S. law goes ahead

WASHINGTON ( CP ) - Canada is getting more aggressive in its fight against a tough American entry law that could spark crushing backlogs at the U.S.-Canadian border.

"It's something the United States better look at very carefully," said Axworthy.

The $1-billion in daily trade between Canada and the United States would be slowed down, he said. Industries counting on quick delivery of goods, such as the auto parts industry, would be hamstrung in border backlogs, he said.

Canadian Ambassador Raymond Chretien had been assured by some members of Congress that Canada would not be subject to the law.

But the U.S. Immigration and Naturalization Service insists there will be no exceptions and say it will launch a test project on the New York side of the Thousand Island bridge in 1998. But Waddell said there is no need for a pilot program.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 01:11)
Puetz: Ok I got the picture now. Funny I admire your nerve to actually state clearly your prediction. Reminds me of someone else who predicted a similar fate for gold a while back but I don't want to bring that up again. I personally hope you are proven to be wrong but it will be a great story for all of us to tell if you are right. Help pass the time on the breadline.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 01:19)
USofA @ Fair & Balanced Trade, OR IS IT ?? (USofA FREE trade)?
September 16, 1997

Clinton says trade with Americas in U.S. interests

WASHINGTON ( Reuter ) - Wider trade with Latin America will advance U.S. interests at a time when Europe is making overtures to the region, President Clinton said Tuesday. "It is in our interest to open these markets," Clinton told a dinner of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus.

"Week after week, I read of these European leaders going to South America saying 'America doesn't care about Latin America. Europe cares about Latin America ... we want you to be allied with Europe,"' Clinton said.

"I say, they are our friends. I have worked hard to establish a good relationship and I think we should go forward with fair, balanced trade that will help our economy and help our relationship."

Clinton told the Hispanic caucus that 70 percent of the growth in U.S. export markets in 1997 was coming from U.S. "neighbors" including Canada, Mexico, Central America, the Caribbean and South America.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 01:23)
@15 Past The Hour

Nikkei down 199 at 17775. That's 1-7-7-7-5.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 01:25)
Bre-X @ Shareholders Law Suit.
Wednesday, September 17, 1997

Bre-X receivership stayed

But class-action suit lawyers given permission to cross-examine David Walsh

Calgary Bureau The Financial Post

"These are shareholders' assets that are being depleted and, over the next week or two, we're talking about hundreds of thousands of dollars being spent," said Clint Docken, a Calgary lawyer who is heading one of the suits.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 01:33)
IMF @ Hong Kong
September 17, 1997

World economies seen growing faster in coming years

HONG KONG ( Reuter ) - The International Monetary Fund kicked off its annual gathering today with an upbeat assessment of the world economy, but admitted Asia's currency crises would dampen prospects there.

Some 16,000 people, including policymakers from the IMF's 181 member countries, are attending the gatherings, which are expected to focus on how best to resolve economic problems in Southeast Asia and ensure they do not harm the global economy.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 01:34)
WOW!!! Nikkei freefall!! Go Puetz go!!

(Wed Sep 17 1997 01:43)
@:30 Past The Hour

Nikkei at 1-7-5-9-5 or down 2.1%

(Wed Sep 17 1997 01:48)
Modern Artificial Economic Control @ Monopoly @ USofA (Free Enterprise eh!)

September 16, 1997

U.S. merger activity sizzles with banks, brokerages leading the way

LOS ANGELES ( AP ) - As a survivor of two corporate buyouts, Rich Stiller has some simple advice for others who may find themselves staring into the jaws of acquisition.

"Have money in the bank and you can always have the choice of walking away," Stiller says. "The key thing is, don't listen to what the company says because they're going to say what they need to make the deal successful."

If Stiller's philosophy sounds a bit paranoid, it's understandable. Merger activity among publicly traded U.S. companies rose 39 per cent in the first half of 1997 with 3,461 deals announced, according to Mergerstat, a division of investment bank Houlihan Lokey Howard & Zukin.

Five of the six biggest deals in dollars and cents involved financial services companies, led by software supplier CUC International Inc.'s $10.9 billion bid for HFS Inc., an investment brokerage.

The trend isn't limited to the United States. Canadian companies are on track for a record year of mergers and acquisitions after a 21 per cent jump in the number of transactions to 628 in the first six months of this year.

Several factors are driving the current boom, including low interest rates and the strong stock market to help keep investors calm as the transactions proceed, Adelson said.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 01:50)
@:45 Past The Hour

Nikkei down 2.3%, or 4-0-5.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 02:04)
On The Hour

Nikkei down 338 at 1-7-6-3-6 or 1.9%

(Wed Sep 17 1997 02:30)

aurator--I would classify the "Nikkei Swoon" as Damned Data!

(Wed Sep 17 1997 02:38)

We just watched a mini crash in Tokyo. This, after euphoria on the DJIA. Getting interesting eh?

(Wed Sep 17 1997 03:19)
Puetz Moxie
I too admire your nerve, first for making your full moon prediction for all to see, and second for backing it with your own money. For these reason's I hope you are right. However, like the Oldman is implying, don't overstay your bearish position! Live to fight another day.

Senator Blutarsky
(Wed Sep 17 1997 03:36)
The Good, etc.

Steve Puetz Ya got guts. You MAY just win that $200 yet.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 03:36)

Placer Dome is not only an expert miner, they know their product well ---so PAY MIND.
H'mm the CB's sold 10% of their gold over the last 30 years; meaning net, so it went in to the markets.
Maybe your wives are wearing jewelry made from those sales?
That works out roughly to an annual average of 100 tonne.
Remember, gold generally tends upwards after the CB's become 'over confident' and their net annual sales are high, as is presently.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 03:54)
Nikkei Close

Down 1.6% at 1-7-5-0-0 and change. Off 2-9-1.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 03:54)
Nekkei Close

Down 1.6% at 1-7-5-0-0 and change. Off 2-9-1.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 05:22)
For those of you worried about picking up a virus and losing all your great bookmarks--here is a bit of common sense.

Unlucky Josephine--so far so good, huh. Only lost a few thousand today by listening to the advice on this site. I would still rather have cash than shares--not so sure $Aussie are the best way to keep your cash though. Listen to the advice on this site all you want, but in the end you are the master of your own fate. Take full responsibility for every investment decision you make and never blame it on an "advisor" or the "advice" you receive. There is a huge amount of collective wisdom on this site. What you do with it is your decision and yours alone. If the Aussie All Ords is at 1800 this time next year, you will be counting your blessings. If it is 3500 ( and the Dow 10 000 ) , you will be saying "Why did I listen to those guys/gals?". In that case I would be subscribing to the LGB newsletter!!! I happen to think the former is much more likely than the latter!! People like "oldman" are gonna make money no matter what the markets do. The average Joe/Josephine ,however, only goes long. THEY are going to be the big losers in the coming correction/adjustment/crash. I hope you are not one of them Josephine. Cheers from Nick

(Wed Sep 17 1997 05:40)
Aussie $ and wheat hit by El Nino. And you Californians think you are suffering!!!

Aurator and Kiwi---have you kissed your sheep, tucked them in and put them to bed yet? How about some perceptive comment on why the U.S. markets are in Lulu Land and the Nikkei, Honkers etc. are tanking!! I think the Yanks have been sniffing too much angel dust. Don't they know there is an Asian crisis going on that is going to impact big-time on their bottom line??

(Wed Sep 17 1997 05:47)
( This from Tokyo )

Gov't wants reporting of int'l remittances
topping 2 mln yen
Financial institutions that act as intermediaries for international
remittances will be obliged to report to tax authorities all transactions of
more than 2 million yen under terms of legislation proposed by the
government Tuesday.

The bill will be submitted to the extraordinary Diet session later this
month, aiming at implementation next April. It is intended to prevent tax
evasion by the transfer of funds overseas.

As originally written the bill required reporting of transactions of more
than 1 million yen, but that standard has been eased. Also, there will be
no reporting requirement on remittances between financial institutions
such as banks and securities houses.

The ruling Liberal Democratic Party's tax system research panel
approved the bill Tuesday.

The new rules are aimed at preventing money laundering and taking
advantage of the April liberalization of foreign exchange laws to send
money abroad to avoid paying taxes.

Financial institutions that act as intermediaries for remittances of more
than 2 million yen will be required to report the names and addresses of
remitters and receivers, amounts remitted and purpose of remittance by
the end of the next month. The rule also establishes penalties for

Most transactions that will require reporting will be those by individuals.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 05:51)
Bundesbank Says Inflation Pressures Must Be Contained `Early'

The German central bank must act early to curb price pressures if low inflation is to be maintained,
the Bundesbank said. In its September monthly report, the Bundesbank said wage increases must
stay moderate for low inflation to be maintained and offset any pressures arising from the higher
cost of imported goods. Speculation that the Bundesbank is considering its first rate increase in five
years has been fueled by the 14 percent decline of the deutsche mark against the dollar so far this
year. While boosting the nation's export industry, the mark's drop has also pushed up the prices of
imported goods.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 06:00)
Mornin' Donald. The IMF thinks the world economy will grow by 4.2% next year. How does this fit in with Puetz' crash scenario? Maybe an early recession befoe the y2k problem?

(Wed Sep 17 1997 06:00)
Japan realigning itself with Asia, drifting away from the U.S.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 06:03)
Correction--make that 4.2% THIS year. IMF must be selling gold to prop up the world economy!!

(Wed Sep 17 1997 06:12)
Good Morning Ted. I think the IMF is flat out wrong. Everyone assumes that this speculative bubble will go on forever. It sounds like the reports we got about Japan in 1990. Or about house prices in California, or commercial office space in New England. It is the typical kind of talk that you get at the end of a cycle.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 06:15)
For once I disagree with all of you.
Even though there may be a further down move in Si, I see gold bullion and especially gold stocks ( XAU ) going up with the averages, near term,then the averages will go down, or even tank, while golds after correcting, will continue upwards.
Think that Puetz is premature with his doomsday scenario, but agree with his longer term projections. Hope he doesn't get hurt with his Puts in the S&Ps. I would wait to see if they test the highs, or make a new high before taking a position. I believe with all of the caution and bearishness around, being a long term contrarian, by nature, and pessemistic like most on this forum, it may be wise to let the market tell you when. A likely scenario, given these conditions, the way I see it, is a further runup in the small caps with the S&P possibly making new highs, and then coming back into the pattern it's now making. This would fake out a lot of smarties.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 06:17)
A special thanks to Panda and others who post charts of interest here.
Have been saving and printing out most of them.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 06:21)
Brazilian currency still under pressure.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 06:29)
TED: These are the kinds of stories I expect to find, 5% decrease, not 4.5% growth.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 06:39)

Not really, but Malaysia must stay alert

By Assif Shameen and Steven K.C. Poh / Kuala Lumpur

DAIM ZAINUDDIN, MALAYSIA'S FORMER economic czar and still a close adviser
of Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad, shakes his head. "Some people never learn," he says. "I was
finance minister during the mid-1980s when we had a recession, and it took us several years of
pain before we got back to high growth again and filled those empty buildings." The veteran
moneyman believes that far too much of the nation's resources are being spent on property
development: "You can't just keep building office towers, shopping complexes and condos."

The warning is gaining resonance because of property-related problems now roiling neighboring
Thailand. "But Kuala Lumpur is not Bangkok," argues Christopher Boyd, managing director of
MUI Properties. "We believe the current market is still more demand-driven than speculative." So
MUI will go on building bungalows in a Kuala Lumpur suburb, a condominium in the seaside town
of Port Dickson and a township in nearby Lukud.

Demand for middle-class housing may remain strong, but pressure is building in the office and retail
sectors. Too many edifices are opening their doors, including mega-projects like the twin Petronas
Towers, the world's tallest building. Office vacancy rates may top 15% by 1999 and nearly 20%
by 2001, not far from 26%-30% at the height of Malaysia's 1985-87 recession. "A slowdown in
exports is another concern," adds Sanjoy Chowdhury, a regional strategist at Fraser Securities in
Singapore. "Eighteen months ago, Malaysian exports were growing at over 20% a year. The latest
annualized figure is just 3.5%."

The numbers prompted Manu Bhaskaran, a regional economist for SocGen Crosby Securities in
Singapore, to lower his GDP growth forecast for Malaysia to 5.4% in 1998 and 6% in 1999 --
from the projected 8% this year. ( See table for the consensus estimate of five major brokerages. )
"There is over-investment across the board in manufacturing, power, toll roads and
telecommunications," he frets. "Demand will take a long time to catch up."

Another factor is Malaysian investment abroad. Over the past four years, local companies have
poured billions of dollars into Southeast Asia, Latin America, Africa and eastern Europe. Many
projects have yet to show a decent return. All these may boomerang on banks and other financial
institutions because a slowing economy affects corporate earnings -- and could lead to loan defaults
by overstretched borrowers. Nearly 30% of all bank loans have gone to the real estate and
construction sectors, while 20% were lent for the purchase of stocks.

That's still way below the exposure of Thailand's troubled banks. Rajeev Malik, a senior economist
at Jardine Fleming International Securities in Singapore, ticks off other differences between the two
countries. "Interest rates in Malaysia are approximately half of those in Thailand," he notes.
"Malaysia's capital account has been open for several years now, and hence there is no unstable
surge in capital inflows as a result of a structural policy shift."

Even so, an economic slowdown may come sooner or later. "Malaysia has had too good a run for
far too long," says Chowdhury. "The question people should ask is whether what is happening there
is a Thai-like meltdown or a desirable cooling after a decade of high growth. Once economies
overheat, it is generally not very easy to manage a soft landing." Just ask Daim.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 06:44)
Fed official praises economy.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 06:44)
Donald--what brand of coffee are you drinking?? See 06:00. Ted is still sleeping off the Fosters. Cheers, Nick

(Wed Sep 17 1997 06:47)
NICK@C: Nescafe instant. It part of my foreign aid program to Switzerland.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 06:56)
Price outlook dismal. ( Scroll to very bottom for gold story )

(Wed Sep 17 1997 07:01)
Ever get that sinking feeling?

(Wed Sep 17 1997 07:01)
RYDEX URSA (short S&P Fund)
Info/prospectus for URSA: 800-820-0888 quotes: 800-717-7776

Any comments regarding credibility of following newsletter
advisors: Stephen Leeb, James DiGeorgia, James Blanchard,
Don McAlvany??

(Wed Sep 17 1997 07:19)
Indonesian city of 800,000 shut down by riots.

George Cole
(Wed Sep 17 1997 07:24)
Milhouse: Sounds like you are bearish on everything.

Japanese and often move in opposite directions. So today's steep Nikkei drop may be bullish for the Dow.The rationale here is that weak Japanese markets imply continued low interest rates in Japan, bolstering their demand for treasuries.

My optimism on stocks and caution towards gold is strictly short-term. Gold stocks will be much higher relative to the Dow dow a year fron now than they are today. But short-term, they still look lower. Possibly a lot lower.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 07:28)
Dollar, Yen, Mark, interest rates, trade balances for this morning.

Medium Trader
(Wed Sep 17 1997 07:36)
Scudder Launches Index Fund This is guaranteed by the FDIC, right?

(Wed Sep 17 1997 07:39)
Index Fund

(Wed Sep 17 1997 07:44)
Mornin Donald and all Kitcoites....Donald ( 6:12 ) I agree that we appear to be near the end of a cycle but just don't see a BIG crash comming...but a slow grinding- down bear market that manages to frustrate the maximun # of investors ( ? )

(Wed Sep 17 1997 07:57)
Donald ( 6;29 ) Re: S.E.Asia: Ialso tend to agree with you! Got an e-mail from JIN last night and he is in the middle ( Malaysia...near Thailand ) of all this and the subject of the e-mail was "the worst is comming"...doesn't look good with that kind of reaction to yesterday's Wall Street move....

(Wed Sep 17 1997 08:00)
@Nick @ Canberra
Mornin Mate....Now don't go spreadin ugly rumours ( 6:44 ) about me....No Fosters last night but Saturday night might be a differen't story....

(Wed Sep 17 1997 08:00)
TED: That would be OK, fast crash, half-fast crash, slow as the tortoise crash. They all suit me. Take a look at the Dow chart since the high on August 6th. A well defined downward channel has developed. It bumped up to the top of the channel yesterday. ( In order to keep it intact today I just knocked on wood. ) I am looking at page MW3 in Barron's. Are you a website subscriber? Can you get that chart? It sure looks bearish to me. The Dow/Gold Ratio is also saying this is for real. ( KOW again! )

(Wed Sep 17 1997 08:07)
General ( 7:01 ) Stephen Leeb has made some very accurate calls in the past...S+P futures up .70; German Dax up 111.83: FT-100 up crash in European equities......Dec. Gold down .80 @ 322.80 ....just lost .50 in the last half hour....S+P futures up .90...1.00....

(Wed Sep 17 1997 08:10)
Did I just through a time warp? Earlier this AM I saw the FTSE at +102, now it is -1.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 08:13)
For what it's worth:
September 17, 1997

IMF Global Economy Report
Predicts Strong Growth Ahead


WASHINGTON -- The International Monetary Fund
scaled back its growth forecasts for Japan, Southeast
Asia and most of the developing world, but predicted
nonetheless that the global economy is about to enjoy
what could be its best five-year stretch in the past 25

"There are reasons to believe that the current expansion
can be sustained, possibly into the next decade," the
IMF said in its new World Economic Outlook. It
foresees global growth of about 4.5% a year over the
next five years, compared with an average of 3.75%
over the past quarter-century.

The U.S. will continue to
lead the world economy,
the international financial
institution said. It predicted
the U.S. economy, which
grew 2.8% in 1996, will
expand by an inflation-adjusted 3.7% this year and
2.6% next year, substantially faster than the IMF
projected six months ago, without much of a pickup in

But the IMF said the Federal Reserve probably will
have to raise interest rates to ensure that the economy
slows in time to avoid an acceleration of inflation.

Japan Forecast Is Trimmed

In contrast to the rosy outlook for the U.S., the IMF
reduced its growth forecast for Japan by a full
percentage point for both 1997 and 1998. It now
predicts growth this year to be little better than 1%,
compared with 3.5% in 1996. "Should growth fail to
pick up in the second half of 1997, some fiscal
measures" -- tax cuts or spending increases -- "will need
to be considered," it said. For 1998, it predicted growth
of 2% to 2.25%, but said the fallout from Southeast
Asia's currency crisis could mean slower growth.

Still, the IMF gave three reasons to justify its upbeat
outlook for the global economy:

It sees few signs of the "tensions and imbalances" that
usually precede downturns. Inflation is subdued, and the
commitments of central banks to price stability are
"perhaps stronger than at any other time in the post war
era." Governments are reducing budget deficits.
Exchange rates are "generally ... consistent with
medium-term fundamentals."

Unemployment and unused industrial capacity in
continental Europe and Japan has kept the world
economy from overheating despite strong growth in the
U.S. and some smaller industrialized countries. As
economies in the U.S., United Kingdom and elsewhere
slow, revived growth elsewhere will pick up the slack.

The economic successes in developing countries and in
countries emerging from communism will provide new
markets and production capacity, "stimulating trade and
growth worldwide while helping to dampen price

Southeast Asian Ripples

Prospects for developing countries have suffered from
the Southeast Asia currency crisis, the IMF said.

The new forecast, finalized in late August, predicts
Thailand's economy will grow only 2.5% this year,
substantially slower than in recent years; private
forecasts are gloomier. But Asia as a whole is still
projected to be the fastest-growing part of the
developing world, expanding by 7.6% this year, more
rapidly than the average for the 1980s and early 1990s.

The IMF outlook for continental Europe is largely
unchanged. The agency expects the European recovery
to "gradually gain momentum," thanks to healthy exports
and interest-rate reductions made last year. The IMF
sees growth in Germany of 2.3% this year and 2.8% in
1998, and in France of 2.2% this year and 2.3% in

Return to top of page

Copyright  1997 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 08:16)
Whateryouguysdrinkin? FTSE -.01%

(Wed Sep 17 1997 08:22)
G'day Ted. We're all gonna regret you learnin' how ta cut 'n paste!!
Don't worry mate. I've got my squelch button rarin' to go if they're too long!!!

(Wed Sep 17 1997 08:23)
To make site available it must show http:// etc. Would you please repost?

(Wed Sep 17 1997 08:25)
@Strad Master
Strad Master: Hope you are feeling better today!!...S+P futures up 1.45..
Donald ( 8:00 ) Yeah, I'm a subscriber.....but I still don't see a decline to the degree that it'll hurt my stategy of staying in drip's of companies like XON,SBC,SIG...ect ect....I'll only end up buying more shares!....Am nervous enuf though that if my registered letter ( today is day 13 ) ever gets to Boston,I'll sell a 12 year holding in NES....could have walked to Boston by now! This is getting rediculous....another over-paid union job...postal workers...

(Wed Sep 17 1997 08:29)
Comex: Gold down .50; silver down 2.5 cents; Pl down 3.0 and Pa up .50 ...Nick: don't you dare.....I'll be good....Weather: 15 degrees ( C ) and gradual clearing....

Friend of Kitco
(Wed Sep 17 1997 08:32)
I too am glad Bart has graciously provided us with a forum in which to freely and honestly express opinions. I have watched for two years as the disinformation project you and others have been running here at Kitco continued. I guess the last burst of total incivility was too much for me and I have decided to expose some of your disinformation. I am sure Bart is not happy about his forum being used to fleece the unsuspecting. The volume of disinformation at this site now exceeds the sincere posts. By the way Hepcat next time have one of your regular handles attack me, its more effective.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 08:32)
@ housing starts
Housing starts down 4.8% ( largest decline in EIGHT months ) S+P futures UP 2.0....long bond up 3 ticks...5 ticks....7 ticks....

(Wed Sep 17 1997 08:35)
Sunni-Shia killings in Pakistan.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 08:35)
DONALD: If I were the management of a gold company I would sure think twice before committing to Indonesia in view of the political situation. Or as an investor committing to a company heavily invested or investing there. IMHO of course.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 08:39)
Sorry, missed your correction of site. To answer your question re FDIC I sure never heard of FDIC insurance on a mutual fund.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 08:39)
Read this from the news ...
ohh..319.80 per oz.....errrrrrr.hmmmmm,let see....~~~`````````

(Wed Sep 17 1997 08:45)
Read this from bangkok post:
and there is rumours abt raising tax in malaysia,the other direction...!any comments?

(Wed Sep 17 1997 08:45)
Thailand(it'll get worse)
...morning all...
Thailand's problems are a drain on Japan & SE Asia ( the impact on US & South America is being underestimated )
MELBOURNE, Australia-- ( BUSINESS WIRE ) --S&P CreditWire 9/17/97-- The profitability of all financial institutions in
Thailand is under considerable stress.

The downward pressure will be compounded by a general reduction in net interest margins as the cost of funding nonperforming
loans rises and as competition for funding intensifies. In addition, revenue from noninterest income generating activities has
declined in line with the slowdown in the Thai economy.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 08:46)
@Victoria Bitter
Y2K---35% chance of global recession.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 08:48)
TED: All the news today seems deflationary. Bonds up, housing starts down and last month readjusted down further. That is bad news for stocks, but they will probably go up on the interest rate angle. You will know the stocks are done when they go down on bad news, not up.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 08:56)
JIN: The terms of the agreement with the IMF require Thailand to raise the VAT. This story tells all.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 09:01)
Inflows (Sept 11)
...unless huge inflows have materiazed in the last 2 days, it doesn;'t sound like stocks will have enough fuel....
U.S. stock funds $788 mln outflow in 3 days-survey

NEW YORK, Sept 15 ( Reuter ) - U.S. equity funds saw outflows of $788 million in the three days ending September 11,
compared to $2.2 billion in inflows in the prior two-day period, fund tracking service Mutual Fund Trim Tabs reported.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 09:10)
Japan bankruptcies continue to rise in August

TOKYO, Sept 16 ( Reuter ) - Corporate bankruptcies in Japan increased in August amid structural changes and fierce
competition prompted by deregulation, a research firm said.

With financial institutions increasingly pressed by the need to shed bad loans, which soared after the bursting of Japan's asset
price bubble in the early 1990s, a wave of failures could occur in the future, Tokyo Shoko Research said in a report.

The number of companies that failed with debts of more than 10 million yen in August totalled 1,289, up 14.2 percent from
1,128 in August 1996.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 09:12)
CB sales
...they're trying hard to find who sold.... ( did anybody sell? )
STOCKHOLM, Sept 17 ( Reuter ) - The central bank of Sweden, the Riksbank, said on Wednesday it had not sold and did
not plan to sell gold from its reserve after rumours in the gold market that a central bank had sold bullion from its reserves.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 09:14)

Hi guys. I am in trouble. Bart has done well updating the forum site however I went for a look see elsewhere and lost all the comments for yesterday. How do I retrive past comments. Please note I using my company handle and address. If we all did the same then the abusers would not be stay around. If you hav nothing to hide then why use a handle!! Warren

(Wed Sep 17 1997 09:17)
Group-- check this site out http//

(Wed Sep 17 1997 09:27)
@Interesting chart

(Wed Sep 17 1997 09:31)
TED -- Mail on the way. On Barts' Frames version, I see that gold is up a whooooping 40 cents. Bart, I really like this frames version!

(Wed Sep 17 1997 09:48)
Hey y'all - Would you stop giving LGB and Howell-Jolly
and JR so much crap? There is only one hepcat, and he
has decided to let all of you back on this site for
a while. George S. Cole - When the Dow moves back
above 8300, are you going to say you should have seen
it in the bonds? Psyeutzy - What did Freud say about
the rush towards death? Three-one-oh spells 310.
Once again you are all going to whine and say, "Well,
he didn't tell us why or give us any justification,
and the stopped clock is right twice a day unless it's
military time, etc." Seems like this clock comes
unstopped at just the right times. Hey TEDrake, looked
for you in Alburquerque ( note the spelling, which is the
more correct way ) and Santa Fe when I was out there
for the burning of Zozobra - couldn't seem to find you
listed in any major phone books.
Note to "Friend of Kitco" - Your own acronym describes
how screwed up you are. Stop lunging around in the
dark and start reading Nabokov. I think you know
which one.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 09:54)
@the scene
HUI and XAU beginning to show some signs of life for a change. Perhaps 'something' is in the air?

Short Bull
(Wed Sep 17 1997 10:02)
I did not buy the Rydex Precious Metals fund yesterday ( XAU ) as I decided to wait another day. When the DOW traded above 100 yesterday I again
went long and got out this a.m. up 5.75 in the Globex on one Dec e-mini. H.L. Camp called for a first hour high. Looking to get short near today's high if possible. Low probability we close up today in the DOW.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 10:09)
@ Damn the post office
Sent a registered letter with stock certificates from Sydney Nova Scotia to New York City ( where the transfer agent for Fidelity is ) TWELVE days ago and still not there...Called Canada Post ( who are threatening to strike ) and they said my registered mail went from Sydney ( as far to the East coast as you can get ) to Montreal ( that makes a lotta sense...lets send it a thousand miles to the West before sending it BACK East to NYC...left Montreal on 9/11 on flight to Kennedy airport...looks like U.S.of A post office is as INCOMPETANT as Canada SIX days in NYC seems to my simple mind,long enuf time to deliver a fuc$ing letter....that cost NINE damn dollars...I repeat: Canada Post: you can stick yer proposed strike up yer arse-hole....where it belongs....and to the U.Sof A Post office: "stick it" jerks....In this age of instant communication the post offices are lookin more + more like DINOSAURS....

George Cole
(Wed Sep 17 1997 10:09)
gold stocks
Gold stocks rallying a bit this morning. But unless we get strong upside volume, it will not last long or go far.

Testing: Dow moving above 8300 is an if not when question.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 10:13)
We Deliver

Hi Ted.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 10:22)
Hey UPS....yer not very reliable from Cape Breton to the "states"...been there ...done that"....stick yer strike up yer arse-hole too!!...Hi JIN!
...Headin out ta do some chainsawin and venting...grrrrrrrrrrrrrr....Look @ that damn XAU...soarin like an eagle...UP .85...BBL Dudes....grrrrrrr.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 10:25)

shoot from the hip, aim for their lip!

your limb-crawling antics remind me of mine relative
to weather related chaos and flux. the nay-sayers
have now been silenced, and there is a deafening roar
from those who also boarded this same train, now aptly
named el nino'. let the show begin, again.

no one KNOWS AS MUCH AS YOU think they do! keep-on-keepin-on!!!

cherokee!; ) looking backward----to see forward--------------

to know the future, study the past.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 10:29)
Thailand (political woes)
...he can say that again....
Chavalit warns he
will not go alone

Dissolution trump card can be played
after charter vote

(Wed Sep 17 1997 10:35)
to the LGB
LGB re: your voluminous "grey literature" posts, let me guess, you were trained in the classical school ? Uta Hagen, Stanislavsky ??

(Wed Sep 17 1997 10:44)
Well, then, GSC, let's make it a hypothetical.
IF the stock market moves above 8300 by the
end of this month, for example, will you once
again say, "Oh, I should have seen it in the
bonds"? What are the bonds telling you, GSC?
Once must prepare contingency plans for all
possible scenarios, and besides, inquiring
minds want to three-one-oh.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 10:49)
The market is crashing.
The market is crashing.

( Oh, sorry, that's the Pt market )

Internet Assessment Office
(Wed Sep 17 1997 10:50)
Kitco Site Participant Rating: 9.7/10
If you guys can be this nice to each other and have this much fun when gold is getting clobbered, maligned, neglected and disrespected on a daily basis, this place is going to be a huge party all day long once the 5-year Gold Bull of 1997-2003 takes off.

Once again, you are to be commended for your continuing civility in the face of adversity. Very British of you.

By the way, the Office of Precious Metal Pricing informed me that the Bull was scheduled to start September 1, but they are slowed down by Year 2000 problems. At any rate, they expect to get it started by the middle of November.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 10:53)
And how much more fun it will be
when Flag stock takes off.

( This message archived from
September of last year and
reposted daily )

(Wed Sep 17 1997 10:53)
Interesting to note that the eclipse was totally visible from India to Asia but totally invisable in the USA.
Maybe people only see what they want to see.
Methinks many people saw and felt the eclipse and its effect is yet to be seen.
I saw it through a drambuie haze.

One thing I haven't heard talked of in all this El Nino talk is the
effect of all the water adjoining the artic circle.
Surely this will led to some melting down of the polar caps.
You can see the warmer water +3degrees all along the edge of the ice.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 10:55)
El Nino will destroy the world
if Y2K doesn't get it first.

( This message archived from
the Dark Ages and reposted daily )

(Wed Sep 17 1997 10:55)
@..question for Oldman
In the face of extraordinary bad news and market disinterest the price of gold seems to be caught in a tight range and has not breached its July low of $313. Lease rates for gold have range 200 basis points ( 1 mo. ) recently and continued CB sale stories are published without substantiating reports while the short position by speculators weighs about 10:1 ( including OTC ) on gold price.

Given this situation do you think we will see a new low in gold price before long or do you think we have bottomed ?

Your advice is appreciated.


(Wed Sep 17 1997 10:58)
Bob, are you white or black?
Oldman requires that information
to make an informed response,
re: Are you thinking of buying
gold or stealing his gold?

Remember, Bob, Oldman would
have had you buying gold
at $350.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 11:00)
You seem to have insight in the current bond market and allude to a possible resurgence in the DOW to new highs. We already know GSC and Puetz forecast. If you have a forecast please share it with us.


(Wed Sep 17 1997 11:03)
You seem to have insight in the current bond market and allude to a possible resurgence in the DOW to new highs. We already know GSC and Puetz forecast. If you have a forecast please share it with us.


(Wed Sep 17 1997 11:05)
Watch the Dow tank in 1 min intervals, and then switch over to Xau.x to watch it bull, then over to gc7z to see the real movements.

Sorry to be repetitive but this sites the best!!!!!!
If you go there now and put the dow on 1 min intervals it will give you a tast of things to come.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 11:07)
(and they hate me ???)
Amazing there has been no response to testing's 10:58 post. I don't think I mis-read, and seriously suggest you issue an appology. Fun is fun, by I don't stoop to 'Howard Sternisms'.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 11:07)
Bob - if you haven't read two
forecasts - gold and the DOW ( just
for free, since this is a gold
site, not a doomsday site ) - from
my recent posts, then you are
completely brain dead.
Do you yell at the
weatherman on TV after he
tells you the five-day
outlook, complaining
"But what about the
forecast". Gold at
310 and the Dow above
8300 in the next month
is a forecast, Bob.
Get it?
Have another beer.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 11:09)
Dow DOWN OVER 30 points
...Dipsters where are you? my Free Research of yesterday...bargoons are now available...

Buy, buy this stocks are cheap...

Note: not affiliated with R. Rubin & friends

(Wed Sep 17 1997 11:12)
@Y2K - The Government has reportedly discovered that its Year 2000 problem is significantly worse than thought previously, with 8,562 separate "mission critical" computer systems in the executive branch affected by the problem.
NICK: I beleive we are only scratching the surface of this issue.
I hear that the worst laggards are the EU countries, who face not only the Y2K conversion, but the possible EMU currency conversions which will
be a huge piece of work in itself.
Canada recently appounted a Y2K task force, which is supposed to report next JUNE - hahaha what a joke.
IT WILL BE TOO LATE BY THEN.... Any impacted company which does not begin this work immediately will probably be in trouble.
This will be great for the consultants in the business as it may turn out that
they will be given blank cheques for their services by the most desperate

(Wed Sep 17 1997 11:13)
Hey JollyTime - I would be surprised
if TEDotson and his son ( the two in one )
countered that assertion. His racism
is allowed to flourish at this site
and is welcomed by 85% of the posters.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 11:13)
testing, aka hepcat
Welcome back. Your non derogatory posts are appreciated.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 11:18)
Singapore's stock market is more vulnerable than often
assumed as several major listed companies have
"well-advanced" regional exposure, says the Political
and Economic Risk Consultancy ( Perc ) .

These firms include major banks such as Overseas Union
Bank, United Overseas Bank and Oversea-Chinese Banking
Corporation, as well as food and beverage companies such as
Fraser and Neave, Cerebos and Yeo Hiap Seng, Perc says in
its latest Asian Intelligence.

"Most of the foreign exposure ( around 30 per cent of total
earnings ) of the Singapore banks is in Malaysia, suggesting the
development of more negative market sentiment towards these
counters as economic growth slows in that country," says the
Hongkong-based consultancy.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 11:19)
Shek - My derogatory posts
are appreciated by 15% of
the posters. It's not much,
but it's a start. Seeing
how gold is going to perform
over the next month, I think
the conversion rate may
go higher.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 11:21)
I bet you are one of those guys who like to talk alot, insult people, hide behind their anonymity and run when confronted.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 11:24)
Unchecked credit expansion
When a country's supervisory and regulatory mechanisms
do not keep pace with deregulation and liberalisation in the
financial sector, problems can arise. Unchecked credit
growth often results in an unhealthy concentration of loans to cyclical
sectors such as the property market. And as asset prices inflate
rapidly, percentage returns on capital fall -- fuelling volatility in local
asset markets as bubbles emerge and burst.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 11:24)
(OK guys it's war !!!)
you know, yesterday, I actually felt sorry for interrupting what I then felt was a intellectual forum on the net. I was a rabble-rouser and admit it. But I am a gold stock analyst too. BUT now boys, I see you condone letting a Jolly Racist on the forum, real nice guys, yeah. Testing, do you hate jews too ?

(Wed Sep 17 1997 11:34)
Puetz where are you? I do believe this will be your day! At least the beginning of the end of paper madness.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 11:41)
@eel nino

(Wed Sep 17 1997 11:42)
@el yahoo

(Wed Sep 17 1997 11:46)
(the rationale behind tragedy and gold surges ?)
Alot of guys are rubbing their hands over el nino and y2k and wars, etc. But place yourself in a tragedy, whats the firts thing you need ? certainly not gold. Medical supplies, food, aid, construction. yeah those markets shoot up, just like after WWII. - comments ?

(Wed Sep 17 1997 11:47)
testing : Welcome back. Gold at 310, maybe, but DJII over 8300 before the end of this month aint gonna happen.

All : Jerry Favors at

(Wed Sep 17 1997 11:50)
UPI Wire Service ( 11:43 a.m. )

"People jumping out of windows as market crashes"
A number of traders today took the easy way out
rather than wait out the crisis occurring
on Wall Street, jumping out of first floor windows
to get to lunch rather than leaving through the
automatic doors, which were stuck due to an
electronic glitch.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 11:53)
NJ - this is how problems start,
when dumb people like you incorrectly
requote what smart people like me
say. Go back and read again.
Where did I say, "By the end of
this month"?
Please quote me correctly if
you wish to communicate with me.
Get it?
Go have another martini.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 11:59)
UPI newswire ( 12:00 noon )

"Market crashes"
Two people pushing carts in the farmer's
market in Alton, Illinois crashed into
each other today. A box of cabbages
was damaged and some tomatoes suffered

(Wed Sep 17 1997 12:00)
youse guys is quiet ---- too quiet ?!?!?!
NEWS FLASH::: y2k is no longer a problem, the world decides that writing the date as 0000 is a better idea, it sounds like a fresh start. Everyone saves trillions of dollars, and people who write checks are allowed short form I just put 0 at the date, it soooo easy !!!

(Wed Sep 17 1997 12:08)
@all you sittin' in high places...

...According to one of the survivors, the helicopter encountered
"dense fog" about 35 kilometers ( 20 miles ) east of Bugojno, said
U.N. spokesman Liam McDowall

"They attempted to gain altitude, but ran into a mountainside,"
McDowall said.

At least one U.N. and two NATO helicopters were sent to the
crash site to search for survivors and for clues to the cause of the

BTW, I am definetly NOT hepcat, if you think I am, then YOU are definetly "in a fog"....definatly in a fog...definatly in a fog.... ( eom )
The Rainman...

(Wed Sep 17 1997 12:09)
testing : You said "Gold at 310 and the Dow above 8300 in the next month is a forecast."

Well, Dow above 8300 in the next month also aint gonna happen. Dont forget to acknowledge the error of your ways on October 16th.

Friend of Kitco
(Wed Sep 17 1997 12:16)
The score is better this morning
Sincere Posters: The score since my last post at 08:32 this morning. Hepcat and the disinformation crew 30 ( this includes 4 posts from sincere posters which we must count as disinformation despite their being good guys ) Sincere Posters 21 Not Knowns 3. Hepcats latest handle testing is using the get a good fight going method to disrupt our forum this morning. We really cannot stop the fighting because hepcat will just have one handle fight another. However he would rather fight with sincere posters, or better yet get two sincere posters to fight each other.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 12:24)
Happiness is, one each, hep.nut/testing.nut, returning to the funny farm with a Jolly Miller under each arm. ....... Count me in the Oldman camp on any issue you wish to raise. Broad brush accusations of racism are cheap tactics by third rate minds and receive no consideration in any rational discussion. In short, it's a tactic with zero effectiveness. Pursue it further if pleases you but it will be ignored.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 12:36)
@the scene
Earl -- Go for it! Sic 'em!

(Wed Sep 17 1997 12:38)
Earl --Here, here. Isn't funny how some people need other people or things to blame for their own short comings? I guess I've been at too many state hearings and listened to far too many whiners complaining about everything from machine guns on the street going rat-tat-tat to why the government ought to help them because of their disability/place of origin/discrimination/etc. I guess Atlas is shrugging. I do not find it amusing how I am blamed for all of the ills of the Republic ( being a white male of European descent ) , yet my wallet is to be pried open for the purpose of making these claiments 'whole'. Funny, they never tell me why it is MY responsibility to make these people whole. I guess that makes me a racist?

(Wed Sep 17 1997 12:53)
Perhaps the largest obstacle to the worlds computers successfully entering the next century is the lengthy testing many will require when they have finished making their changes. We used to say a new operating system required seven years to debug. The year 2000 changes are nowhere near as complex as an operating system but they are thousands of folds more extensive. I am convinced many systems will take years to debug after the year 2000 changes are put in. Why? Because there will be much new code ( this will occurr at all levels, new functions, new programs, new libraries and new sytems ) required in addition to the relatively simple date fixes. A previous poster "Programmer" gave us some of the reasons for this new code. Many experts are using a new code figure of about 10% of the system total. Miro perhaps you could give us your fiqure? All the new code will mean that verifying that all the original functionality has been correctly preserved will be a large task. Many systems will need to be rigorously tested top to bottom.

One way to look at the y2k process is that the world will go through the first worldwide synchronized house cleaning of systems, hardware and software in the history of computing. Such house cleaning even at the company, industry or computer systems provider levels has never gone smoothly. With the whole world having the same problems at the same time clearly the potential is there for protracted delays for many of the problem resolutions. Delays which for the first time in history will not be able to result in the project being postponed with out extreme cost.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 13:07)
Arden - thanks for your generous offer.
Puetz - Asia taking it on the chin. As the vortex whirls we, too, will be dragged in.
Vytas - Good question about gold/platinum prices. Markets are very confusing even to those who have been around them a long time. Keep asking those questions even after you've got an 'answer'. Someday you will be here to tell us the real story. Hope to see you again soon.
Testing - why.
All - V-O-L-A-T-I-L-I-T-Y. And then DOwn.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 13:23)
Earl - I am not raising the spectre of racism.
Oldman is an admitted racist. I hate stupid
people of all races and am happy to admit it.
How is it, Earl, that I am considered a "nut"
because I have advised people to stay out
of gold for the past year? Are you confusing
the word "nut" with the word "put"?

All - The world in general is always more ready to excuse a
knave than to tolerate a fool - and Kitcotites are no exception.
After having borne patiently for twenty months the incredible
duplicity of Mooney, the grew tired of his blundering brother
Puetzy in just four. It is odd that one who in managing the
astrological tables had displayed such marked ability should have
made so incapable a soothsayer; but the fact remains that Steve
was a fool; and among many types of fool his was perhaps the worst -
the solemn prig.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 13:34)

Another sharp selloff in silver has presented another buy the dip opportunity. The correlation between Kodak declines and silver selloffs has been strong of late. The idea, I suppose, is that declining sales for Kodak means lower silver demand. This would be reasonable except for two important points. The first is that the declines in their sales are in dollars not volumes. Second, their sales declines are caused by loss of market share to Fuji. Last I heard the film that Fuji was selling also contained silver. Overall silver demand is rising and supplies are falling. Since there are no big government stockpiles to save the day, when the cupboard is bare it will be bare. Use will be rationed the old fashioned way, higher prices. The decline in the Comex warehouses is around 65 million oz per year at the current rate. Dec 31, 1999 looks about right for 0. What a coincidence. We are following the classic pattern which has occured throughout the commodity sector over the last several years. In the face of declining inventory the price does nothing for many a moon until some critical trigger level is reached. Then prices begin to rise in a sustained fashion culminating in a massive short squeeze. It appears that we are in the early stages of the game in the silver market. No telling how long it will take to run its course but the time frame for other markets has been between 6 months and a year.

As an aside, runs in silver or often looked upon poorly by the bond market. A strong breakout in silver would signify a good shorting opportunity in the bonds. Watch and wait.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 13:41)
Something for you to consider.
Any computer hacker with desire, or anyone with desire and funds, ( ie: oldman with his 50K windfall ) is able to trace written posts to a given ISP and the original poster. Given time ( 2-3 days ) , oldman could spend some cash to find out who your ISP is, your email address and your name. From there, he could find out your place of residence and possibly your phone number. Its all relatively simple.
He could take you to court for libel, as you publicly, in writting accused him of racism! Not a very wise move.
Oldman could really do all of this, if he wanted to.
testing, be very carefull about what you write about others. Could come back to hunt you.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 13:42)
To all and Bart.Enjoyed this site and my thanks to you Bart.But what happens here today is ugly and I hope all the smart posters stay away from here for a while, then the pigs can roll in there on dirt.

Passive Participant
(Wed Sep 17 1997 13:42)
Something affected the markets at 12:30 today....does anyone know what it was?

(Wed Sep 17 1997 13:44)
Someone has been using a set-top box for Internet access ( Indianna? ) . What are you using? Price? Who'ja buy it from? Is it one of these satellite things ( downlink via broadcast satellite, upload via modem ) or does all the traffic go through the phone line?

(Wed Sep 17 1997 13:45)
(Panda is a bear, not a man)
Panda, re: your 12:38, yeah all those welfare moms draining you dry buddy, sure man, If you beleive that your as stupid as they come. Next time you are on pogey or UI, remind me to piss all over you.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 13:49)
...........Cisco Kid, Was a friend of mine(war)............
Friend of Kitco - I tire of you as much as I tire of others. When you were a kid, growing up, you must have been a crossing-gaurd at your school. Did you also pass out the milk and cookies too? Why are you keeping score? Is it going to make you money??!?? I think not. You are supposed to be ignoring what you don't like and concentrating on what you do.
Let's be friends and let's NOT keep score...


(Wed Sep 17 1997 13:52)

Welcome back errr maybe.

What's this with 310? Seems like a pretty timid call. What's that about 3% from where we are now? All in the noise. Pretty soon your going to be a day trader.

It is true that LGB could not possibly be you. He just does not have the delivery.

My guess is that this time you won't get quite the reaction as in proir sorties. Hope you enjoy yourself. BTW, if you shred the ideas rather than the people, you'll have a better chance for mayor, but then you probably know that already.

Hope you haven't caught any bad germs at the CDC.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 13:53)
Come on edisons
beleive me, I don't like to get nasty ( well maybe ) , but finding out this is an "good old boy's" site is too much. For all the guys crying about how the site is going to hell, why don't you answer my post on the rationale behind catastrophes and gold surges ?

(Wed Sep 17 1997 14:03)
Gold demand
Since the largest demand for actually using gold comes from jewlery manufact. It would appear that good economic times and easy money would push people into making discretionary purchases like rings, chains, etc. The doom sayers seem to gloss over this. A solid gold watch for everybody - man thats a lot of gold !!

(Wed Sep 17 1997 14:04)
Bart: I'm outta here until you figure out some way to fumigate this site.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 14:06)
Eldorado: surprise , forecast posted here yesterday for the Dow to reach 7930 today before beginning a reversal to the downside has been true to form so far. If there isn't a dramatic reversal by the end of the week to above 8000, then I think Puetz and Favors will be correct in calling for the beginning of a "third" wave type of decline. The weekly pattern in gold looks much like the basing pattern before the '93 run up. Could a "third" wave rally be beginning for gold? The next 3 weeks will be very interesting to watch and to participate in if these "third" waves actually begin to transpire.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 14:06)
hep.nut/testing.nut ( 13:23 ) : Read to the accompaniment of loud guffaws, paroxysms of side splitting laughter, knee slapping and rollicking mirth!!!! Damn hep, there ain't no one like you. Boy, yer one in a million.

Did the "classical education" you and jolly miller received, really prepare you for life as a humorist or do you come by the talent naturally? Whatever; it's a talent that should be packaged and sold. Failing that, your musings are worthy of inclusion in the back pages of "The American Spectator". You know, the section titled: "Life Among the Intellectualoids".

BTW, though used from the dawn of time, the tactic of intellectual intimidation is a failed art, found only in late 20th century western disputation. Completely discredited and now found only in parody and outright humor. Mostly 'cause it fails to impress anyone save babes in arms, those found to be mentally defective, sophomores at college and their silly professors.

Have a good'un, hep. Off to more productive engagements.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 14:08)
Same thing with silver
Same story applies to silver. If photo developing is lousy, who needs silver ?. Why should catastrophe like y2k, el nino, or war help and PM's. I think they would go down, more important things to worry about. Gold is only inverse with inflation if u ask me.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 14:09)
Favors latest seems to agree with you concerning a crash starting this
week. Keep a tight reign on those shorts.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 14:09)
All this talk about surf ( lastnightduringhamlet ) had me stirrin and poppin chub. I have surfed the Wedge before but not on large gets VERY crazy. My friend Long-John was probably out that day. He was probably 'bing-bong' or 'red-ass'. Those most closely fit his style...looooney!
Overhead is enough for me nowadays...from Mexico to Half-moon-bay...Wax the can't stay...


i think we just had a Burp in the PL advance...maybe it's time again...I've been streaking ( hot-ass timing ) in this Metal for a while ( YOU know how long ) ...will the odds-gods rear their ugly heads?? or will i make $$ to the top...hmmmmmm...i am putting together a good strategy for the spread...missed the last one and timing seems optimal for this one...

(Wed Sep 17 1997 14:13)
U.S. Bonds Pare Gain; Traders Balk as Yields Reach 7-Week Low

U.S. bonds pared gains as traders balked at buying securities with yields at seven-week lows,
without more evidence the economy is slowing enough to keep inflation at bay. The benchmark
30-year U.S. Treasury bond rose about 1/4, or $2.50 per $1,000 bond, paring an earlier gain of
as much as 18/32. Its yield fell 2 basis points to 6.39 percent, the lowest since July 31. Bonds rose
after a government report showed a surprise drop in new home building, reinforcing expectations
for low inflation.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 14:16)
Early, next time I want a plug, you stole my 'classical' bit.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 14:21)
jolly: It's in "quotes"; ain't it? ........ Like you said, I'm just "raisin' a little hell". That is OK; isn't it? Or perhaps, turn about is not fair play. Eh?? ~~~POOF~~~~

(Wed Sep 17 1997 14:22)
I think the cat-man is on to something. 310 could be right. And then it will form another pennant/triangle struggle and many will throw MORE money in the wrong direction, thinking it will go up and than it will Dip below 300 for a time and we will not see the light of 300's until December or early 1998. By then Platinum/Gold spread will have made me some good Duckets and I might think of gold heading north. Hep is right. Gold will retreat down, down, down...but then you must know this ;- ) buy some 'spread' for my $$ sandwich

d.a. thanks again for your excellent posts of late...the 15th 11:26 is pinned to the wall...

(Wed Sep 17 1997 14:23)
Bart - I don't know why this great site tends to attract so much garbage. As far as I am concerned, please feel free to use a broad axe and chop the heads off any posters who cannot post in a civil and respectful manner ALL OF THE TIME, not just when they are in a charitable mood.

Alternatively, perhaps you could create a Kiddie Kitco site where all these juveniles can preen and insult each other to their little hearts content.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 14:33)
Why not just buy and hold -
everyone here has an opinion on gold's direction so I'll throw mine in. Gold will um I don't know, you guys are split. Seriously, if this LBME trades so much gold like 50 % of ann prod per day, it just common sense nobody is hording the stuff.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 14:36)
To all new Hepclones: See ya, wouldn't wanna be ya! I'll be back when you are GONE. Hope you enjoy your FORUM and your own company. As for me, me and my PC can't stand the SMELL, wish all the new Hepclones would go to ....

(Wed Sep 17 1997 14:38)
Come on enough with the crybabies
For all you who want Bart to step in and throw people out, you should pull yourself away from mamma's nipple, and just ignore the posters you don't like, you never know, I might say something intelligent being the market guru I am.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 14:41)
El Nino
Thursday, September 18, 1997

Now Indonesians pray for rain as El Nino scorches the earth

By LOUISE WILLIAMS, Herald Correspondent in Pringluan, Central Java

More than three months ago the wells dried up and the villagers began to gather to pray for rain, the elders
murmuring fearfully about the last great drought of 1962 when they ate boiled bark and rats.

The village of Pringluan lies in the hot, red eroded hills along the southern coast of Central Java, one of thousands
without water as Indonesia's worst drought for 50 years takes hold.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 14:41)
@the scene
I wouldn't particular recommend that anybody do any self-congratulatory pats on their backs just yet for calling for new highs or crashes. The 'Fat Lady' ain't sung yet. There are only two points on the chart that she is looking at. New highs and a breakdown of the recent lows. And if it the latter, expect her voice to be accompanied with a lot of wailing and the knashing of teeth from a number of im-posters here that belong at a 'stox' site.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 14:48)
Profit-Guaranteed @ Corporate Racketeer
September 17, 1997

Yamaichi Securities officials arrested in payoff scandal

TOKYO ( AP ) - Five officials at Japan's troubled Yamaichi Securities Co. were arrested Wednesday for allegedly participating in scheme that gave payoffs to a corporate racketeer. He said the company's own investigation, which is ongoing, showed that a total of about $652,000 US in profits were transferred to the account of corporate racketeer Ryuichi Koike.

Japan's securities watchdog suspects the payments were compensation for investment losses in a profit-guaranteed "VIP" account Yamaichi maintained for Koike.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 14:48)
Stat stuff...for what it's worth...
And these are pretty high percentages. On or near 18th Sep. hold till 23rd. From '68 to '94 Jan. Plat has been successful Long 81.5% ( avg profit $3.40 ) and Gold Long from '75 to '94 has been correct 84.12% ( avg profit $ 2.11 ) ...for what it's worth... throw out the stat book ;- )

(Wed Sep 17 1997 14:49)
This volitility is crazy. If someone is manipulating the markets, I wish they would make up their mind!

Passive Participant: Don't know what happened at 12:30 except lunch. Maybe that's the only time some people have to trade???

Uris: Don't go away. As a poster's effectiveness and influence declines, the volitility increases. Kinda like a topping maket. The end result is a downward trend. Be patient.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 14:50)
US banks lending (S. Korea)
...good luck on collecting the previous loans ( conglomorate bankrupticies ) Kia etc.
U.S. bank lending to S. Korean institutions
falls by half since Dec.
WASHINGTON ( Nikkei ) - The outstanding balance of loans extended
by U.S. banks operating in South Korea to local banks fell to some
$9.8 billion in June, almost half the $18.03 billion seen in December
1996, the U.S. Federal Reserve Board said Monday.

Lending by branches or subsidiaries of U.S. banks surpassed U.S.
banks's assets in Japan in September 1996, when it hit $18.12 billion.
The release of unfavorable data on the South Korean economy, such as
the growing current account deficit, has since combined with the fall in
Asian stocks to dissuade U.S. banks from extending loans.

A similar trend is seen among Japanese and European lenders.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 14:56)
USofA @ Scream And Yell @ No one will listen
September 17, 1997

Surging Japan trade surplus adds to U.S. worries

WASHINGTON ( Reuter ) - A burgeoning Japanese trade surplus will bolster American resolve to persuade Japan to act to spur domestic demand but analysts were skeptical those efforts would yield much.

Brown and Jeffrey E. Garten, dean of the Yale School of Management, noted that U.S. officials have very little leverage to push their aims as Japan has already exhausted the major options for stimulating demand, public spending and lowering interest rates.

"The only thing they have left is to totally deregulate their economy but that can't happen overnight," said Garten, former U.S. undersecretary of commerce for international trade under President Bill Clinton.

"All the United States can do is scream and yell and tell the Japanese they have to generate growth from the inside," he added. "They don't feel great pressure to listen to us."

(Wed Sep 17 1997 14:59)
Credit card delinquency rate near record high
....they must have invested in Eastman-Kodak.........
Copyright  1997
Copyright  1997 The Associated Press

WASHINGTON ( September 17, 1997 10:21 a.m. EDT ) -- The number of
Americans overdue on their credit card bills returned to a near record high
level during the April-June quarter after falling a bit during the year's first
three months, the American Bankers Association reported Wednesday.

The delinquency rate -- the percentage of accounts 30 or more days
overdue -- increased to a seasonally adjusted 3.69 percent in the second
quarter, up from 3.51 percent in the first.

That's just a shade under the all-time record, 3.72 percent, set during the
last three months of 1996. Three years ago, it was 2.56 percent.

The sharp increase in consumers falling behind on credit-card bills has
coincided with an explosion in personal bankruptcies, which reached a
record 1.26 million during the 12 months ended June 30.

Lenders, who flooded consumers' mailboxes with credit-card applications
earlier in the 1990s, have been tightening credit standards during the past
year and a half.

But bankers association economist James Chessen said today's report
"indicates we haven't fully turned the corner on the problem."

"Just as it took time for delinquencies to develop, so too will it take time for
the problem to abate," he said.

Based on total dollars outstanding, rather than the number of accounts,
delinquencies dropped to 5.24 percent in the second quarter from 5.43
percent in the first.

Meanwhile, a composite delinquency rate for a variety of closed-end
consumer loans -- as opposed to open-ended credit such as credit cards
and home equity loans -- also increased in the spring, to 2.55 percent.
That's up from 2.47 percent in the previous quarter and the highest in five
years. An increase in auto loan delinquencies drove the composite rate up.

Late payments for home equity lines of credit decreased in the second
quarter to 1.04 percent from 1.20 percent during the previous three-month

Lenders have been pushing a congressionally chartered commission to
recommend next month changes in bankruptcy law making it more difficult
for consumers to escape responsibility for their debts.

"Unfortunately, the strong economy has seduced some consumers into
thinking that high debt levels are acceptable," Chessen said.

But consumer advocates blame banks for indiscriminately extending too
much credit.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 15:02)
Fear not the Vortex
For in the very eye of chaos there is a GOLDen orb, so small and precious. And oh how it spins!

(Wed Sep 17 1997 15:02)
@ 6pak and nomercy
Are you guys actually human beings, or just computer programs that relay stories from Yahoo Finance ?? If you are the former, bravo, that takes a lot of cutting and pasting work !

(Wed Sep 17 1997 15:03)
Federal Reserve @ USofA Central Bank
September 17, 1997

U.S. prices muted despite summer growth, Fed says

WASHINGTON ( Reuter ) - The U.S. economy grew steadily in the summer in much of the country, yet prices remained
subdued, the Federal Reserve said on Wednesday.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 15:05)
Bart - I'm out of here until you find some way to
vindicate silly predictors like Poopsie by making
the market crash when he wants it to. I'm out
of here until you set up an "AlternaWorld" site
where we can go and pretend gold is going up when
it isn't, and try to convince others to join us
in our folly. I'm out of here until you publish
the real names and addresses of everyone who tips
over our hobbyhorse, and vow to kill them and chop
them up into little bits because they are really,
really hurting our feelings and forcing reality
into our idyllic dream state. I'm out of here until
you, Bart Kitner, agree to absorb 30,000 kilotons of
gold so the price will stabilize and not go to 310
within the next month. I'm out of here until you
promise to buy my gold at $400. Won't someone please
buy my gold that I foolishly held on to while more
rational voices were telling me to sell? Wah-wah-wah.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 15:08)
JollyMiller @ 15:02
And your source of noise, is from where ? Take care.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 15:09)
Coming on Friday
Friday, Sept. 19, we'll have release of statistics from Washington
that we can believe....

Gusto Oro
(Wed Sep 17 1997 15:10)
Another thread with muchacha problems. A la gran!

(Wed Sep 17 1997 15:13)
Big Losses - More Crying
I think I discovered the reason for all the intellectual one-upsmanship and whiners about my visiting the site. Some, ahem, men here have taken serious losses and are venting their frustration at ME !, cut it out !, we can't all make money.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 15:15)

Allen--I am the one using the Webtv. I paid $300 for the unit plus $70 for the infrared key board in March 97. You can now get the unit for $99 plus $50 for the keyboard. It works off the phone line. There is a new version out that works off your cable or satellite connection for $300. Ongoing cost is $20 per month.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 15:16)
@6pak !!!!
Hey 6 Pak, cool man, now I know there's a face behind the headlines, keep it up, I'm a bit of a conspirisist myself.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 15:18)
@ The Public Library:
To Kitco Techkies: ...Yesterday Newmont Mining on the daily chart closed a gap going back to very late July, l997. ... Picked up some Newmont early this morning. : )

(Wed Sep 17 1997 15:20)
Anybody have a good link for charts back beyond one year ago? Specifically: stocks, gold spot, M1,2 & 3?

I can find good charts only to one year ago...Thanks in advance.

Da Major
(Wed Sep 17 1997 15:21)
@Da Battlefield
Gold sales by the IMF not expected to be on the agenda at the meeting
in Asia this week.Some want it to sell 5 mio but others don't as they
suggest it will create inflationary pressure.The IMF says the global
economies ( other than some Asian countries ) are in great shape and global
inflation is in check.Some countries banks suggest inflation is
anticipated in the next three to six months and will move to pre-empt
this by raising rates.

A release by Placer Dome recently states they expect gold to be in the
360 range in 1998.Notice only a few mines ( Barrick's screw-ups ) have thrown
in the towel.Gold indexes up today on down gold day.

Central Banks in Europe deny or refuse comment on their participation
in gold sales.Traders say gold lending leaking in from bankers ( somewhere )

Buying of gold in India expected to pick up over the next few weeks.

No gold ( or water ) in Indonesia now.Hale Bopp stole it me thinks.Suharto
being punished for his wicked ways.

El Nino has just begun to cast it's deadly wrath on the world.

Year 2000 calamity sits ominously on the horizon.

Inflation or deflation as a reason for buying gold?Two sides to that
thinking.A study reported recently suggests gold investments actually
have done better in times of deflation.Go figure dudes.

So much to discuss,yet some wish to pollute this site with childish
garble.Is gold being manipulated folks..pure and simple.The question
is " By who/what and why ?"Discussions with pertinant information that
may educate and inform is welcome.Childish garble is not.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 15:22)
Jolly Miller -- I must of hit a nerve, eh? Just curious, who's paying for your ISP? Should I hold up a mirror? Nah, why bother. The site is yours, blab away...

(Wed Sep 17 1997 15:23)
@Languishing Anchovies:
P.S. Also might want to take a look at the action in the soybean oil pits yesterday and today. Alan Abelson had something to say about El Nino and anchovies in this weeks Barron's.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 15:29)
@byron re: newmont
Byron, recently RBC crossed a large block of Newmont. unless u r day trading, I suggest juniors with cash and good properties, and average down. If your interested, and don't think I am a villan like evryone else here, we can share picks.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 15:33)
JollyMiller @ 15:16
No Conspiacy. No Conspirator. Just Business taking care of Business.
Watch the tape. The Free Market tells all, eh!. Take care.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 15:35)
Villian - from the word 'villien', aka villa or estate.
Quick bet, kitconites:
Does the dow close today higher or lower?
Yours to gain - Nilla. Not villified, however. Chance to gloat.
Yours to lose - Posting privileges for twenty-four
hours from the close.

What'll it be, smart guys?

(Wed Sep 17 1997 15:35)
@ Watcher
Watcher, it may be of help, but try I find it good for stock charts and quotes, the US stocks offer as long a range as u like, so does Yahoo finance.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 15:37)
@To Bart
Bart -- I hate to say it, but it's time to do some type of registration for posting. Perhaps something similar to the Avid site? You can register under any handle, but must give a valid E-Mail, Phone#, etc. I know this is a pain. Just a thought.

Jolly Miller, Hepcat, testing, and whatever other pseudonyms you use, no one would attack personally you based on your view of gold. I disagree with Puetz on the crash. The big difference is this, you are here to disrupt, antagonize, and in general, be a pain in the ass. You do not contribute anything productive in the way of reasoning or analysis. Just bluster. I see that you want to attack my, "manliness". Typical juvenile response.

Later folks...............

(Wed Sep 17 1997 15:43)
DOW we go again!!

(Wed Sep 17 1997 15:46)
Stocks @ Outside USofA
September 17, 1997

Closing stock market prices

LONDON ( Reuter ) - Here is how major stock markets outside the United States ended Wednesday.
LONDON - Stocks rose for the third day running, taking their lead from Tuesday's rally on Wall Street. The FTSE 100 rose 36.7 points, or 0.7 percent, to 5,013.1.
FRANKFURT - Stocks jumped, with the DAX-30 index rising 111.53 points, or 2.9 percent, to close at 4,010.48. In after-hours trading the DAX stood at 3,970.44.
PARIS - Shares finished slightly higher but off their best levels as weakness on Wall Street dampened sentiment. The CAC-40 index closed at 2,944, up 3.45 points.
ZURICH - Shares built on Tuesday's rally, helped by derivatives-linked buying. The Swiss market index soared 132.6 points, or 2.5 percent, to end at 5,550.4.
TOKYO - Stocks fell on renewed worries over the economy. The 225-share Nikkei average lost 291.23 points, or 1.6 percent, to 17,683.27.
HONG KONG - The stock market was closed for a public holiday and resumes trading Thursday.
SYDNEY - Shares rose, with the All Ordinaries index up 27.5 points, or 1 percent, to 2,679.3.
JOHANNESBURG - Stocks rallied after a wobbly start. The all-share index rose 46 points, or 0.6 percent, to 7,191.8, the industrial index jumped 75.2 points, or 0.9 percent, to 8,786.5, but the all gold index fell 16.9 points, or 1.8 percent, to 921.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 15:49)
You started this pal !
No panda, I am paying for my ISP out of my pocket. Don't hold up a mirror, u might vomit. Listen, crying for the webmaster is not going to work, If you want to post on a public forum, expect response. Jolly is my only handle. And another thing GROW UP !!

(Wed Sep 17 1997 15:56)
Auric - Who did you buy your unit from? Are you using the modem or wide bandwidth version and how is the performance? Thanks for getting back to me.

Waiting for DJIA @ 7553.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 16:02)
Jolly you must belong to the ' Loser' family. Are you relating to Johny? I'll have to ask Johny's Mother.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 16:04)

My Humble Opinion--We went through this same thing about 2 months ago. The same solution still would work. Bart, flyswatter?

(Wed Sep 17 1997 16:06)
JollyMiller @ @ @ @ @ Everywhere. But, Here YOU are a Guest.
Kitco is a PUBLIC forum ? Get a grip ! Bart provides this site. We are
his guest's. One would expect, a respect for this FACT. Not public, as
you imply. No, your tax dollars are not paying for this site. The site
is located in Quebec Canada.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 16:12)
Oh, too bad no one took me up on my bet.
I guess you'll have to endure the "oh" portion
of my three-one-oh series without a day off.
The holy triumvirate - Hep/LBG/Hollygolightly

(Wed Sep 17 1997 16:15)
IMF concerned
"The risk of ( economic ) overheating is still present," given the continued climb of the U.S. stock
market and strong business and consumer confidence. The Federal Reserve has tightened monetary
policy moderately as a result, but "further monetary tightening is therefore likely to be necessary,"
the report said.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 16:17)

Allen--These units are sold at Sears, Office Depot, Best Buys, and can also be ordered over the internet. Very easy to use. The picture is as good as watching a regular TV. I have the phone line unit. What cost me $300 can be had for $100. And you can't beat watching Kitco from an over stuffed recliner.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 16:24)
Thanks for the info on graphs...I had located a sight with 10 year graphs a while back but must have forgot to bookmark it!

(Wed Sep 17 1997 16:26)
Future inflation
Now, inflation is the result of too much money chasing too few goods. As we have mentioned
here, there's a heck of a lot more money chasing good these days, as evidenced by the
year-over-year August increase in M3 of 8.4%. If manufacturing capacity growth is a proxy
for the potential amount of goods that can be produced, then there is relatively more money
chasing too few goods these days. Manufacturing capacity grew by 4.2% year-over-year in
August. The difference between these -- something I call "excess M3" -- increased to 4.2 in
August from 3.6 in July. The August reading on "excess M3" is the highest January of 1989.
M3 started growing faster than manufacturing capacity in 1995. The gap has been widening
steadily since. There seems to be close to a 3-year lag between the time "excess M3" picks up
and CPI inflation does too. If this lags holds up, as shown in the chart below, consumer
inflation ought to pick up in 1998. Maybe events in Asia will short circuit this. Maybe they
won't. If today's financial market reactions are any indications, they won't. But market
reactions have, on occasion, been know to be wrong.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 16:26)
@ozona tex
When I have been able to watch the markets I notice an immediate negative response in financials as a result of almost any firming in the metals and vice versa.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 16:29)
Getting weak, I can't take this fighting anymore
This is the internet, nobody owns it, 6pak we are all guests, so none of us have rights over the other. I have broken no good taste rules, only to repel crybabies. This is a DICUSSION FORUM, or so I thought. If those of you want a private site, set up security, charge a membership, do something else. If you have public access, I and anybody else is welcome provided we keep it clean. Humor is allowed. But seriously, you guys are not much fun. the testing 'redneck' dude is interesting, but the rest of you so-called true posters don't dicuss, you are hypothesizing. If you want to hypothesize and don't expect a response, go in front of a mirror. please don't bug me anymore about leaving, I stay if want and go if I want. The webmaster has better things to do than tend to you children. I would love to squelch the daylights outta some of you, but I understand that just cuts me out in the long run, so should you.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 16:39)
Anyone have an opinion on Harry Browne's ( How To Profit From the Coming Devaluation ) "4 stack scheme" to hold or increase your buying power? The deal is to put all your liq. assets into 4 equal piles: 1 ) money market 2 ) govt. bonds 3 ) high beta stocks 4 ) gold bullion. As often as you like, but at least once a year redistribute to make the 4 equal again. I'm new and would appreciate your comments pro & con.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 16:49)
Of course JollyMiller is a Loser. Can't you tell. Hi Jolly, noticed that you've taken Johny's spot, spreading the Loser wisdom. How are things up there in Toronto?
I was talking with Johny ( I had to send him his welfare check, you know ) and he says hello. Boy you sound like you learned a lot from Johny. You are a real Loser. Keep it up and show these boys and girls who you really are.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 16:49)
JollyMiller @ 16:29
I respond, only because you made mention of this poster.
Why spend productive time with a bunch of crybabies.
Surely, this time can be spent more productively elsewhere.
What is your pleasure and/or agenda. A suit type, I suspect.
No depth, all rights, and heavy in the mouth.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 16:50)
Auric - Thanks for the info about WEBtv. Though it is not stated in the site you attached I assume there is a minimal charge for use such as US$20 per month. This may put me over the edge. Thanks.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 16:51)
CRUNCH: I read that book years ago. It is still a fine idea. You need to be extra careful about the selection of your money fund, your broker and how you safeguard your bullion.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 17:03)
Hello Byron: Did you finally open some cat food today? Poor thing must have been starved. We got a little movement I see. Speaking of Teckies. I believe in charts, love to look at them and stumble through the meanings of the wiggles. On the Dow since the 8300 last top there seems to be a downward slope forming that remained intact through today. I don't know if that is long enough to be called a channel but it seems like a nice straw to grasp. Been doing a lot of that lately.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 17:06)
Dow/Gold Ratio 24.66 and still hanging in there.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 17:10)
Crunch - I've heard short term CD's and Treasuries. Of course metals since inflation ( devaluation ) should be reflected in their price. If inflation is the only thing we have to worry about OK. It appears that land may be a bad thing since it in dependent on the economy - we could have another complex problem such as stagflation of th 70's.

Year 2000 is in the picture, that's why it is brought up here. If financial and trading systems sustain a major hit, then accounts are meaningless. This includes MM and Bonds. I notice that none of my credit cards expires after 1/1/2000. How about yours?

We have a major problem in equity and bond markets world wide. A tremendous US debt. Asian economies unravelling ( who hold alot of this debt ) . EEC/EMU as a rival currency to US$. Y2000 and now an El Nino which simply will not quit. War very possible in Middle-East as well as Korea.

I'm thinking that a simple bout of hyper/inflation would be easy to deal with. What I'm concerned about, personally, is the multiple swords hanging over our heads, all of which are held in a very sensitive interrelated balance.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 17:19)
My friends know I invest in gold stocks and gold. Previously they ridiculed me and we argued. Now they no longer argue but are friendly in a concerned way and always ask something like "is everything ok"?

(Wed Sep 17 1997 17:24)
Before the housing starts were released today we had all these "economists" telling us about all the wonderful things going on in the economy that guaranteed a housing boom. Consumer confidence, job security, expectations of a buoyant stock market etc. Are all these things invalid now that the unexplained drop in starts for two months is public?

(Wed Sep 17 1997 17:25)
USofA - Canada @ Appeasement @ Bully tactics.
Limit how much Canada appeases U.S.: trade minister

OTTAWA ( CP ) - Canada risks undermining its prominence as a trading nation if it keeps signing appeasement deals with the Americans to limit exports, Trade Minister Sergio Marchi says. "At some point you have to say enough is enough," Marchi said in an interview.

But it continues to bully its trading partners into signing voluntary deals to accept export quotas in return for a guaranteed portion of the American market in what is politely called "managed trade."

Marchi said the government is often forced to sign appeasement or "least-worst" deals as they have become known in trade jargon because the business sector affected doesn't want to face a protracted trade dispute.

"You don't go around treating your best customer ( badly ) just because you've got a senator or a congressman who wants to play to a home town."

Friend of Kitco
(Wed Sep 17 1997 17:26)
It was bad today
Sincere Posters: EB has requested that I do not give a count this afternoon so I shall not. Is one really needed today? Hepcat/testing/LGB and his various other handles will not go away, they are not harmless noise, they are paid to disrupt this forum. They are doing a good job. Hepcat is joined on the day shift by one and perhaps two other paid disinformers. There is also a liar on the night shift. They are being paid to keep you from buying gold. Take care.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 17:27)
@Food For Thought:
Donald: Cat still experiencing a full body rash. Believe it feels like jumping out of its skin. Needs something to happen to cure this rash. Maybe the next 2-3 days will be the cure. ( *.^ ) wink..wink.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 17:36)
@ The Editor's Page:
Panda: Above Bart has stated that Kitco has no editorial control over this site. A little while ago, I read a news article in the local paper about an individual who had put together a web site and was being sued because it was stated that he had editorial control. I wonder that if Bart were to do what you recommended of registration of posters,etc that we would then have to hire a monitor like Avid. Just my thought, that there are always "legal ramifications in running a web site.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 17:44)
USofA - Canada @ Central Bank's @ problem, what problem eh ??????
Canada bank shares up on central bank reassurance

TORONTO, Sept 17 ( Reuter ) - Shares of Canadian banks rose on the Toronto Stock Exchange on Wednesday after Bank of Canada Governor Gordon Thiessen reassured U.S. investors of the Bank of Canada's vigilance about inflation.

"The purpose of making the speech was to reassure U.S. investors that the central bank in Canada would be vigilant if there was any possibility of ( rising ) inflation," said Rolie Bradley, institutional salesman at Maison Placements Canada Inc. Bradley said giving that reassurance led U.S. investors to buy into bank shares in Canada.

Dollar ends mixed in U.S., Rubin comments aid

NEW YORK ( Reuter ) - The dollar was mixed against major currencies Wednesday, drawing strength after comments by Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin that tempered fears of worsening U.S.-Japan trade relations.

Central bank officials and finance ministers of the seven most industrialized countries will meet in Hong Kong this weekend. "My perception is that the Clinton Administration is concerned about the Japanese surplus and concerned about the lack of growth, but sees the solution in liberalization, deregulation and fiscal policy," said Ron Leven, currency strategist at J.P. Morgan Securities.

"They do not see the dollar as a vehicle for solving the problems they see," he added.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 17:46)
I propoe we start discussing the trade of the day/wk/month. We have to recognize/ yes gold will rise eventually but wishing for it and condemning the manipulation is fun and fine yet we are not really profitibg from it but rather salving our collective wounds ( not that there isnt something to be said for that ) . We consider ourselves smart? for investing in something ( we admit we think ) the most powerful forces in the world want to suppress. Lets get practical and come up with tactics that will make money now. LGB SSC pick looks good I bought some and for once made a little. LGG Why do you like ssc any other recs?

The political discussions are fun/ this is a great sight to be a Liberal.

Steve I hope W. Lafayette wins the rest of its games ditto Purdue. You are a man of conviction and courage. I predict one day you will be a famous analyst.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 18:01)
I haven't heard about the Harry Browne plan but it sounds somewhat like the RIGS plan. RIGS stands for Recession, Inflation, Growth, Speculation ( or Safety ) . It is based on the theory that the economy goes in cycles and things do better under different economic conditions. ( ie. real estate/gold/tangibles do best during inflation; bonds/cash do better during recessions; and stocks do best in periods of growth ) . The idea is to keep an equal $value invested in each category. This will force you to sell when prices have gone up in one category and to buy in another category when prices are low. It is a self enforcing BUY LOW, SELL HIGH strategy.

elf a.k.a. auroelf
(Wed Sep 17 1997 18:02)
ten year graphs
Watcher: Try
Then enter other symbols to replace HM ( Homestake ) in the example.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 18:29)
Federal Reserve @ Central BAnk, ready to act.
September 17, 1997

U.S. economy growing, Fed says, but building slows

Federal Reserve Governor Laurence Meyer, speaking at a global outlook conference in Pittsburgh, said the economy appeared "very healthy" with little to threaten ongoing growth.

Meyer said the Fed had to stay on its guard, though, ready to act if necessary to head off overheating that could produce damaging inflation, especially when factories are straining to meet demand.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 18:35)
Soybean @ Soar
September 17, 1997

Soybeans stay on boil, coffee jumps, oil falls

CHICAGO, ( Reuter ) - Soybean prices continued to soar Wednesday as commercial grain firms and speculators scrambled to sort out positions ahead of the expiration of the September futures contract Friday.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 18:42)
I believe the stock market will go down because the current exobitant price of stock is based on estimated future earnings that, IMHO, could only be achieved in Utopia.

Companies have downsized; cut health costs; kept labor cost down, and opened new global markets just to achieve the earnings we see today. There is nothing left to downsize, health costs are creeping up, workers are getting restless and the new global markets are going broke.

There is only one way for this market to go....DOWN.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 18:44)
LGB;J.Miller: Testing,
Despite tour pseudo erudition, I note one thing you hold in common: You
are ignorant of the fact El Nio is written with a "cute li'l squiggle". It is known by a certain name. None of the contrary anti-contrarians has mastered the art of communication. Y'all would probably speak your li'l ol' slang in referring to the cute li" ol' squiggle;
"-you no- man-like I don' keer, it's only a word." End of illustration
and post.
I'll believe you all have a modicum of reality in your psyches when each of you is able to properly spell El Nio!!

Bart Kitner (Kitco)
(Wed Sep 17 1997 18:55)
To JollyMiller: As has already been stated, this is NOT a public discussion group. This is a private discussion group in a public medium. Think of it as like throwing a birthday party at Pizza Hut.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 18:57)
4 equal stacks
Crunch r.e. 1639 post: There are many ways to average out risks by dividing one's assets. I for one used to keep a quarter of my money in timber land, but sold out last year and started averaging that portion into metals related products. That portion of my portfolio isn't expected to do much 3 out of 4 years, but on that fourth year will give leverage to buy more of something else. Considering that South African gold stocks go up or down in the range of 80%, all it takes is a modicum of self discipline to make money in them.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 19:02)
Some Positives for Gold
Sometimes it is helpful to take a look at the gold market from a distance. There are some positive hopeful considerations:


.... Gold is acting more like a bull than a bear. It has failed to make new lows despite renewed threat of CB sales, bond rally, stock rally, weakening commodity prices, strong dollar, substantial short selling, sharp drop in silver, and no apparent reason for it to go up.
.... Dec. Gold has formed a possible triple bottom
.... Demand in place from Large short postion and high lease rates make it expensive to hold gold short.
.... Most major gold equities have not made new lows on the recent gold decline.
... Despite the apparent lunar failure, the stock market is showing signs of topping and recent rallies have all been directly in response to strong fundamental news.


... Physical demand should improve at this time of year
... Physical demand for the metal is good and recent measures by India to reduce restrictions should improve demand.
... Money supply has been generous in G-7 countries
... CBs have been buying as well as selling gold.
... Deflation is possible and gold has previously done well in a deflationary environment.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 19:02)
@Bart, Puetz
Thanks Bart and I'm going to try and work even HARDER myself at being on topic. Now will you please tell all the Sherlock Holmes types that I'm NOT Jolly, Testing, et al??? On to markets, Puetz, if you're really shorting S&P I gotta hand it to you standing behind your convictions. I feel a little leery myself. A lot of volatility today and high volume. I'm back on the sidelines again as I said yesterday. BTW, speaking of "gold" the sun was golden reflecting off the waves of the beautiful blue Pacific today in Monterey. And the warm El Nino water was greatly refreshing as well!! Life is good...How DARE any of you compare LGB to this "Jolly" fella!!! ( Or the "cat" for that manner...whom it's quite obvious are not one and the same... )

(Wed Sep 17 1997 19:10)
@Skylark, Gold
Deflation? Inflation? Seems like half the posters here think one or the other is coming soon, yet neither has reared it's ugly head in a meaningful way/ Which would be better for gold. Seen both views, but the really spectacular rises in gold were during our hyperiflation period during the Carter years...

(Wed Sep 17 1997 19:13)
@"Friend of Kitco", "RJ", "Snoop" et al
OK all you Sherlock Holmses who have accused me of being Hepcat, JollyRoger, etc. Forget Gold & PM investments for a moment because I have a really luctrative deal for you. OJ Simpson and the parents of Jon Benet Ramsey, have been reading this board and have decided you're the perfect detectives to help them find "The Real Killers"... write to them for further details....

(Wed Sep 17 1997 19:20)
Ted, This One's For You @ Your Registered Letter $6.00 eh!

September 17, 1997
Canada posts 3rd straight monthly budget surplus

OTTAWA ( Reuter ) - Canada posted its third straight monthly budget surplus Wednesday, the first time that has occurred since the early 1970s.

For the fiscal year to date, Canada recorded a surplus of C$308 million ( $222 million ) , a huge improvement over last year's C$6.45 billion ( $4.64 billion ) deficit.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 19:27)

Anyone here familiar with how the junior golds acted at the 92-93 bottom? Did any of the majors find the price of these things so tempting that they just had to buy them?

Some of the exploration stocks that I have been following are getting to valuation levels that are approaching free. Each day I think of buying a big load but hold off and they go lower. In the last few days I have seen some pretty good size volume on the declines and it looks like complete and utter capitulation. The despair is almost palpable. The SI threads are littered with corpses. Getting in near the bottom ( if the bottom is a number other than 0 ) of these things could be awfully rewarding. Many of these stocks are down 70 - 80 percent and more in just six months. A little retracement rally could give one a triple.

I'm trying to think of these stocks as options on the various properties that they hold. They go to near zero if working capital hits zero and no one is around to fund any more exploration. If by some miracle gold goes up 10% these things could double or triple in a heartbeat. Looking at the prices of these things vs. the price for a comparable gold call option and its clear that some of these juniors are far better bets.

Now that I've vented, I think its time to take this year's pension fund contribution and put it on the crap table.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 19:27)
..............4:26 stuff.............
Snoop - Cute Squiggle = Tilde

Hey Ted! - Low Flying Burrito Residue wafting your way!! ;- ) )

Friend - Count if you wish and I won't even ignore you. I read ALL if I have time. Now what is all this stuff about getting paid to spread disinformation?? Are you playing with your decoder ring again and reading too many Dick Tracey comic books? C'mon, there is so MUCH disinformation being spread here by Everybody that it is unecessary to pay someone to write it. You're just joking and baiting aren't you? I get it, yuk, yuk. yank the hook, line AND sinker from my mouth...

(Wed Sep 17 1997 19:28)
D.A. - I'm not sure what it is that you see that I do not, but I am very bearish on the metals right now. Good luck. I hope everyone continues to buy the dips in silver because that will make the decline that much longer and lower when you and everyone else finally throw in the towel. I'm short many. many Dec and March silver calls between $5.75 and $7.00. You buy them as lottery tickets and I sell them and call it rent money. To each his own. Silver will have it's day but not before the March98 expiration! There talk of a stock market crash.... I have just one question?? How many stock market crashes have there been with bonds surging like they have over the past couple of trading sessions????

(Wed Sep 17 1997 19:30)
Bart...Can I Buy the Pizza?
It is my way of showing thanks :- ) mix the sauce

Strad Master
(Wed Sep 17 1997 19:31)
A variety of topics
ALL: My computer is running into big-time troubles and I'm likely to have to shut down for several days while maintenance is done. ( It's freezing up whenever I try to open an application. ) I can't get to my e-mail either so I don't know if anyone's e-mailed me or not.

BART: the spot prices on the windows screen don't match the spot prices I get quoted from my broker. PL, for instance remained unchanged for the day, accourding to him. Since I buy and sell at his spot price, it's confusing to have to deal with two different quotes. Are you sure you're quotes are accurate?

TED: Thanks for the well-wishes. Still have a fever when the Tylenol wears off. With a collapsed computer, though, I have no reason to stay up too late so I can really get some rest.

LGB: Meant to respond to you before now. Yes, I suspect that in some ways we are similar. ( Horrors!!! ) ( :- ) ) Perhaps we'e even like each other in person. We're not too far away geographically. Who knows, we may meet someday. My question for you is: what good would "dollar cost averageing" do for someone just entering the market at theses lofty levels. Do you think it is prudent to buy Coca-Cola at this price and "dollar cost average" as it goes down? A lot of people in 1929 had stock in Blue Chip stocks that simply vanished. Stutz car company, for instance. Sure, the overall average goes up ( more or less ) but what about individual stocks. Also, I suspect that some of the personal bankruptsies we are seeing are the result of people mortgaging everything to get into stocks and then putting money in stocks that falter.

ALL: I'm shutting down now, and may not be back 'til Tuesday or Wednesday. ( I'm also going to Detroit Friday through Monday to have some final touchups on the Strad copy. Now Southeby's will REALLY not be able to tell the difference! HaHaHa! ) Please save your replies for when I get back. Thanks. God bless you all! And may your investments all go in the right direction while I'm gone!

(Wed Sep 17 1997 19:31)
Golden Balls
Anybody? If I was to mint a spherical gold coin, as for instance a global currency unit ( maybe a mini planet earth ) , and it was to weigh one troy ounce of 24 carat...what radius would it be?

Spud Master
(Wed Sep 17 1997 19:33)
logging out....
I have to agree - the recent appearance of a small group of individuals who are practicing "bandwidth jamming" on your otherwise excellent forum is saddening. Please implement a kill-filter and banish these agent provocateurs. Differnt opinions I welcome - but these three seem to collude/work from an agenda designed to ruin the board - such behaviour is worthy of banishment.

Spud Master - out of here until the air clears

(Wed Sep 17 1997 19:35)
Placer Dome @ Winners ?????
Wednesday, September 17, 1997
Placer Dome expects to win Las Cristinas

Mining Reporter The Financial Post

With a critical court decision expected soon, top executives of Placer Dome Inc. said yesterday they have no doubt the company's rights to the huge Las Cristinas gold-copper project in Venezuela are secure. Crystallex International Corp., a Vancouver mining junior, has been saying for months that it, not Placer, owns the rights to the richest areas of Las Cristinas.

But Placer's top Latin American executive said several times yesterday the company believes a negative court ruling is all but impossible.

Where do we put the money guy's. Placer Dome, or Crystallex ?????

(Wed Sep 17 1997 19:35)
A sight for kitcoists

(Wed Sep 17 1997 19:48)

What I see in the silver market is the same thing thay everyone else sees. Declining inventories, continued deficits and no 'emergency' stockpiles to come to the rescue. As I have posted previously, the stocks to use ratio at the end of 1997 should be at the tightest level since 1979. A ratio of global liquidity / inventory valuation of silver is in uncharted waters. Any number of speculative fund players can step in and buy the whole enchalada. It is only a matter of time.

Under these circumstances I buy tickets. Lots of them.

Negative gamma trading is a deceptive game. The money flows easily and mostly in your direction. Unless of course an accident occurs. Then it is blood that is flowing. Take good care.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 19:51)
RJ:Linda's little sister....Bloody NORA!
coming up next weekend, maybe this one'll go in the slot.
Just forming around 14 N, 102 W

(Wed Sep 17 1997 19:51)
teating and jolly gumby---------

you have tipped the pendulum into an un-acceptable
attitude. the corrective action ( for every action, there is
an equal and opposite reaction ) will be magnified and
deserved. maliciousness as an adult is un-acceptable,
as a child sometimes tolerated. the amicable transfer
of knowledge, and the "shouldering" of the masses by
giants is diminished by "the game." this forum is for
expression of opinions, and transfer of knowledge.
war with neighbors is non-productive, consumes energy,
resources, and diminshes participants. attrition
is also to be considered.

we are indeed lucky, for we do indeed live in interesting times.
let's enjoinder, and awestruck, stare in wonder, at what we have,
and where we live! opportunities of a lifetime are within arms

pm's bottoming
grains setting-up for massive drought next year
crude, gas, and heating oil poised to explode with middle east war
currency crisis world-wide
domestic dis-enfranchisement with entire political system
moral decadence
stock markets' imminent crash
millineal angst
y2k---woooooooo, look out!

what an arena..............put an end to the games------

cherokee!; ) -----harvester-of-the-grain-of-truth, dotssmfatimm-------

(Wed Sep 17 1997 20:02)
Thailand(political unrest=more financial chaos)
Prime Minister Chavalit Yongchaiyudh has a
popularity rating of just five per cent and 84 per
cent of Thais want him to resign, a poll showed
They said dissolution of the House before the
crucial vote would have disastrous consequences
for the country's economy and could stir trouble
between pro and anti-Chavalit groups whose own
future lay with the outcome of the constitution bill.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 20:09)
D.A., Glenn, Spud
D.A. I must agree with your asessment on silver. We've been hearing "Bull" from "Bugs" for years, but the fundamentals are now finally in place that really won't allow much downside rick compared to potential explosive gains. Wuth declining above ground inventories of approx. 200 million ounces a year for 4 straight years ( and about 400 to 500 million to go before it's ALL GONE!! ) . with mine closures, with 3rd world nation booming economies starting to gear up demand, where can it go but up in the long run? Plus any rally in gold will take it along as well.

Spud, Don't let the door..... Seems like folks like you and "Friend of Kitco" add as much useless nonsense if not more, than the annoying personalities like "Jolly" do.

( LGB, off to collect my illicit paycheck from the Eeeeevil central bankers who pay me under the table to post on Kitco )

(Wed Sep 17 1997 20:10)
D.A.: What juniors do you like? I'm holding onto PUMA, OROP, and AZCO ( among others ) . By the way SSC seems to have a "junior" price for a silver play ( thank you mike - expecting great things ) although not a 'junior'./////GLENN: You might beat the rent out of those dec's, but ya' better tank those marches!!....IMO of course!

(Wed Sep 17 1997 20:11)
Bart: Thanks again for the great site..
Anyone: With El Nio winter coming to California, will mines with Heap leaching pads ( such as Glamis Gold ( GLG ) ) be affected by heavy rains??
Also: I feel the only way to help the price of PM's is to take delivery. Buying options, futures and stocks is just paper shuffling..What say you?? ( oops, sorry Glenn )
Earl: Hope you took care of those moles. I had moles and golphers. I also had five gallons of homemade wine with high alcohol ( and tasteless ) . Poured it down the holes and last I've seen them for three weeks now.. Had a little quake too.. ( hiccup? )

Richard Burke
(Wed Sep 17 1997 20:11)
Kiwi - re: golden balls. the following equation should get you to where you want to go ( although someone please check what I have come up with )

radius = cube root of ( 1/12 divided by 3.1416* ( lbs/cu. inch of gold * % gold + lbs per cu. inch of impurities * % impurities ) )

Radius is in inches
The 1/12 is the weight in lbs of 1 troy oz. I do not know what the mass of the impurities is so I left the equation so that you could fill that in along with the mass of gold both in lbs/cu. inch

(Wed Sep 17 1997 20:11)
LGB ( no confusion on aka's ) : Did you read WW's earlier post regarding investment vehicle of the day/week/month???? Not a bad idea IMO. ...... A flaming marxist/socialist/ demo socialist but a grasper at heart. Just like the rest of us. ...... : )

(Wed Sep 17 1997 20:11)
I lke to surf the net and I found a sight which might be interesting to some of the extreme right on this sight though I know all condemn. It is crazy but since gold is soo boring so go for it.

ted butler
(Wed Sep 17 1997 20:12)
leasing 101
To All:

There's a special on TBS right now that explains central bank leasing/forward selling of gold and silver.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 20:13)
SE Asia
Salomon Brothers is turning its back on Southeast
Asian equity markets, fearing corporate profits will
suffer as regional governments attempt to repair the
damage inflicted by the currency crisis.

The US investment bank said in its latest strategy
update that it was moving to an underweight
position in the Asean region and raising the level of
cash holdings.

"Massive currency depreciation will raise
inflationary pressures in Southeast Asia," it said.

"As a result, we believe that tight monetary and
fiscal policies will substantially reduce rates of
economic growth and keep interest rates elevated.

"Corporate profits are expected to suffer."

(Wed Sep 17 1997 20:15)
..... Glen .....

Me thinks your take on silver is the better bet. Double top, gold's malaise, soaring equities, not looking good for silver. I am still wary of shorting this quiet monster, seems like I've seen silver surprise more than once. Silver is probably the most purely manipulated of all the metals. I won't get short or buy long here, call me chicken - baa'aaak, buk, buk, buk, buk.

Away......To get plucked

(Wed Sep 17 1997 20:15)
Re: "This is a private discussion group in a public medium."

For the benefit of all posters it would be helpful I think if we have a Canadian lawyer tuning in to summarize the differences in the regulation of the public airwaves real and potential via the CRTC; and, to outline the "Hate Laws" and other restrictions that apply to Canadian forums. Given the comments in the past they are not understood by some US posters to be different from theirs and perhaps some Canadians are in the dark as well.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 20:16)
Philippines(Loan Defaults)
Philippine shares yesterday closed lower for the
sixth consecutive session, as news of a loan default
hit banking stocks, brokers said.
Shares of the country's biggest banks, including
Philippine National Bank ( PNB ) and Metropolitan
Bank and Trust Co ( Metrobank ) , fell after the
central bank said electric appliances-maker Eyco
group had defaulted on loans by 22 banks worth
more than four billion pesos ( about HK$941.2
million ) .

(Wed Sep 17 1997 20:17)
I agree on SSC. Though no one takes me to seriously here, ( because all I do is consistently make the right plays without any exotic ANALysis ) SSC is the one single pick I promoted last week because I believe it has the best risk/reward ratio + safety of the silver, AND the fundamentals of silver look a lot better than gold. I bought some last week when I recommended it ( at 11/16 ) and considering the brutal bloodbath in gold stocks ( which I will avoid for a few more months ) , it seems to be an excellent play. Plenty of room to make 500 to 1000% gain in the next 5 to 10 years.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 20:18)

With regards to the stock market crashing, I have no opinion. Obviously a strong bond market is good for the stocks. It is also true that the 87 crash was preceded by a bond market collapse. Whether any of this will play out in this fashion is anyone's guess. We don't trade stocks in any of our systems, so any bets we make in this arena are discretionary. Our dabbling on the short side has cost us about 2% in fund performance this year.

If a crash does come to pass it is likely that it will occur for no other reason than a random swing of high volatility causing an avalanche of stops to be hit. With margin levels at an extreme, this could occur for no apparent reason other than the 'number' de jour. Given the market's extreme fondness for 'good' inflation numbers, one would suspect that a negative surprise in this area could be the trigger. It seems well within the realm of possibility that stocks and bonds could decline in tandem thus trapping those looking at the bond market for an early warning trigger.

I do believe that stocks in general are hideously over-valued, but that does not in itself cause them to fall. It only heightens the downside risk because the 'value' investors will not step to the table until the pendulum has swung all the way to other side. The other side is a very long way away.

I still cling stubbornly to the idea that the end of the stock market will occur as inflationary pressures build through the system because of overly stimulative monetary policy throughout the world. The growth is there, the tightening is occuring and IMHO the inflation bogey is lurking.

It was interesting to see the troops pull out the soft economy bull&*^* today with the release of the housing numbers. If one read the stories, one of the main reasons for starts and completions declining is that builders can't seem to find enough people to build the damn houses. We are in an absolutely classic late cycle expansion with lots of easy credit. Speaking of history, none of these has ever cooled off without intervention by the monetary authorities. With the last yoy change in M3 over the 9% level it is clear that the party is rockin and rollin.

While history is a useful guide, no game ever plays the same way. This one won't either. Perhaps if we get out over 8000 and Puetz abandons his crash call, the time will be right. The one thing that is consistent in all markets is that money flows from the many to the few.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 20:20)
The internet is full of crazy sights. For the paranoid here is one This shows we need some level of censorship.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 20:20)
Malaysia(another Thailand?)
The ringgit fell for a sixth day against the US dollar
to its lowest level since September 5. The weaker
ringgit will widen the country's current account
deficit by making imports expensive.

It will also cause more foreign investors to leave the
stock market as their Malaysian investments are
being eroded in terms of their home currencies.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 20:21)
OK RJ, since you competely avoided my 50K challenge I'll be HAPPY to call you chicken..and not the Rooster variety...bak, bak bak.....Silver will soar in the next 2 years....and I have plenty of Fun Duh Mentals behind that spur of the moment, insincere, unoriginal, unsearched, shallow, neurosis inspired opinion. Gooo silver... hi ho away.....

(Wed Sep 17 1997 20:25)
Panda@ 15:37
Bart -- I would like to second Panda motion for some type of registration for posting. This site has lost a lot of good contributors. I think registration would bring back sanity and more good contributors. I think the registration would reduce the amount of disinformation and the number of posters who are paid to create the most confusion possible.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 20:27)
Crash @ UN Helicopter
Wednesday, September 17, 1997

German envoy killed in UN helicopter crash in Bosnia

PROKOSKO, Bosnia-Herzegovina ( AP ) -- A UN helicopter crashed into a fog-shrouded mountain in central Bosnia on Wednesday, killing a senior German diplomat and 11 others working to translate the accord that ended Bosnia's 3 1/2-year war into a lasting peace.

The helicopter was an Mi-8 leased to the United Nations, the Ukrainian
Foreign Ministry said in Kiev.

It was the worst accident involving international envoys in the Balkans
since April 1996, when a plane carrying U.S. Commerce Secretary Ron
Brown from Tuzla, Bosnia, to Dubrovnik, Croatia, plowed into a mountain
in a heavy storm. Brown and 34 others aboard were killed.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 20:31)
@the scene
OK, I'm pissed! It doesn't look like I'm going to get my freefall in gold this time around. Maybe I'm early, as I usually find to be the case by a day or two, but gold JUST AIN"T performing to my downside expectations! It is beginning to really peeve me! Perhaps we are at or at least very near a valid triple bottom. Perhaps the washout I would like to see won't happen. Perhaps the day of the paper is at hand in this country. Of course, the 'Fat Lady' hasn't quite sung either way yet. BUT, given a proper looking entry point, I may go 'skinny dipping' on the LONG side. Beside, the XAU and HUI looked a 'bit' more lively today also!

Bart -- Someone opened a window and some birds flew in splaying 'noise' everwhere. Can't hardly concentrate anymore. The fresh air is nice but you think a screen could be put up?

Ter -- Your 16:26: Hasn't particularly gone unnoticed by me either.

Crunch -- You may do exactly that, and maybe only wind up losing 50% of the value if you also remain blind to what's going on. That is much better than losing all of it, and the difference is in being distributed fairly nicely. No matter HOW you invest, do it with your own sense of what you are doing and why, and how you can escape a very potential currency/paper problem. And people think gold has been a bad investment? They haven't SEEN the pain 'burning' paper can/will bring! Just pretend you live in Thailand. Also pretend that the worst hasn't arrived yet! Be very careful! Just make sure that bullion is in physical form and in hand. Anything else is like an out of town dentist convention that they ALL attend and you come down with a BAD toothache! Ah well!

(Wed Sep 17 1997 20:33)
The true channel for those of the rightist authoriterian agenda.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 20:33)
Japanese government agency enter the gold mining business. ( This must be a first )

(Wed Sep 17 1997 20:34)
@...any opinions ?
With all the bad news pounding gold why has it not breached its July low as yet ? Is this still too early to ask ?


(Wed Sep 17 1997 20:34)
Japan(retrenching banks)
Sumitomo: Bank unveils closure


By Paul Abrahams in Tokyo

Sumitomo Bank, one of Japan's leading banks, is to close its Frankfurt
operations as part of a worldwide rationalisation of its international businesses.
It marks a further blow to the international ambitions of Japanese banks.

Shunsuke Kanzawa, the bank's deputy general manager of international
planning, said the rationalisation would take place mostly in the US and
Europe. Activities in Asia, where Japanese corporations have been investing
heavily, would continue to expand. He said he could not give further details.
"We are still reviewing what to do," he added.

Nippon Credit Bank, the troubled Japanese bank, has already closed down
its entire overseas operations. However, Sumitomo's move is significant
because it remains one of Japan's strongest banks.

The move is part of the bank's efforts to improve profitability, but analysts said
it also came in response to a poor performance in the domestic market.

Japanese banks are preparing for increased competition after the imminent
deregulation of the banking industry. Earlier this month, Bank of
Tokyo-Mitsubishi made provisions of 1,076bn ( $8.9bn ) to cover fully its
declared bad and poorly performing loans.

Sumitomo is expected to make similar write-offs in the next few months. At
the end of March, the bank admitted it had 1,070bn of problem loans on its
books. It made net profits last year of only 35.32bn.

The Frankfurt closure will see Sumitomo severely cutting back its German
bond underwriting and sales activities, said Mr Kanzawa. "The German
securities market is very difficult. The German banks are dominant.
Furthermore, the poor economic situation in Germany and the advent of Emu
make the outlook uncertain."

Any remaining German bond business would be conducted from Dusseldorf,
where most of Sumitomo's industrial clients are based. This office would
concentrate on commercial banking, Mr Kanzawa said.

About 70 people would lose their jobs in the shake-up, and the three
Japanese nationals would be reassigned to other branches, Mr Kanzawa

The bank has been steadily reducing staff numbers. Last year it announced its
intention to decrease its workforce by 1,500 to 16,455 by the end of March
1999. In September 1992, the bank employed 18,400.

External link:


 Copyright the Financial Times Limited 1997
"FT" and "Financial Times" are trademarks of The Financial Times Limited.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 20:45)
Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious Metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )

Added to FSAGX position this AM, Current Low is above
previous July Low, If it holds here we have a technical
ramp to the Upside.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 20:45)
To SaintJean
Saint Jean at 20:25. You're not fooling anyone "Friend of Kitco".

(Wed Sep 17 1997 20:47)
ter: Whether of the ultra left or ultra right, authoritarians are blood brothers. Advocate limits of free expression and you will find that you are one them. If it pleases you, take on those you think are out of line but do it with responsible words. ...... Failing that, put on a CD of Mozart Sonatas and chill out. Even the imminent return of the "Cyber Site Misery Index" won't bother you. Promise.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 20:51)
Why is Gold not Falling.
LGB: Thanks for the reply. Clearly, there are no threats of hyperinflation - which IMO would be needed for gold to significantly rise due to inflation, as evidenced by the most recent moderate inflation threats when gold hardly budged. Moreover, arguably, any threat of inflation may be negative for gold as the FED would raise interest rates - which would make it more expensive to hold gold and would tend to increase the strength of the dollar.

Conversely, deflation would seem unlikely with the current strong economic growth and low employment. Although if deflation does occur, as some predict, historically gold has done well during deflationary times - see Aurator's posts.

The current global environment of low interest rates and large money supply may be just be the right environment for gold to foster as it theoretically increases the odds and thus offers an expectation for inflation, reduces the cost of holding gold as a protective hedge, and increases discretionary income for jewlery. Of course the wild card in all of this are CB sales.

The point I was trying to make in the earlier post is that there are signs by inference that at least a temporary bottom may be at hand and there are some possible fundamental reasons for gold's current quasi-bullish behavior. Certainly, there is no clear definitive reason to support its advance for if there were, gold would not be as low as it is.

Conversely for those who are calling gold to go lower, they must explain why gold has currently failed to do so in face of apparent compelling reasons why it should and in view of a substantial interest and strong push by funds to cause it to go lower. Moreover, it also must be considered who has been supporting gold at this level for the past few months and why.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 20:51)
@the end
To All Serious Kitcoites: I scrolled the chat tonite, after a friend e-mailed me and said I may be interested. How sad. I think there are more serious, thoughtful and intelligent posts on this chat than anywhere on the web---at least there used to be. Unfortunately there are some people who are incapable of civilization. When one of these is educated, the problem is only compounded thereby, because they begin to hate civilization and redouble thir efforts to destroy it. The site needs to be password-protected, like other sites where I regularly post. It should be protected, not from those who would freely express their ideas--which I would vigorously oppose. It MUST be protected from the destroyers,
whose purpose in life is to disrupt civilized discourse wherever given the chance. When Bart password-protects the site, I and several other posters will return. Until then, I shall not return.

Puetz: I hope you're right. I will not be hurt, since I am holding nothing overnite.

Bob: The way I look at charts, gold will make new lows. I wish it were not so, but I must trade with my head, not my heart. Three times in the last year I let my heart cause me to go long gold. In no case did it last more than 2 days. I have been short most of the year, with some flat periods. I am now short, but will go flat tomorrow or Friday, if we do not break to the downside by week's end. I will not go long until I have evidence that the bear is over, and I do see new lows.

Good luck to all. You deserve much better.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 20:52)
CNBC today reported 'bonds surge' was caused by short covering. Test and penetration of 6.28 would be more definitive re: uptrend in stocks.

US $ surging again DM will make it difficult. ( 1.7718 as of now ) December gold up $.20 to $322.40

(Wed Sep 17 1997 20:56)
@the scene
oldman -- Thanks very much for your posting. I'm sure many of us do not take them lightly! I know that I do not take them as such!

(Wed Sep 17 1997 20:59)
@your 20:31 post

I'm starting to get a bit "antsy" too . . . As I've posted before, I don't really think we can see a strong reversal in gold until the market shakes out the last of the gold bugs. Penetration of 300 would probably serve, but the present exasperating channel seems to be made of Kryptonite. The best description of gold's activity since mid July is "borrriinnnggg" at best.

Each day the wife asks "how's the market?' and I have to answer "same-old, same-old . . ." A major happening is needed, but from what quarter?

Best Regards,

(Wed Sep 17 1997 20:59)
Silver Stockpiles
D.A. FWIW, a Merril Lynch analyst stated recently that there is a lot more silver than what is revealed in the warehouse numbers to the extent that it would not be feasible for anyone to put on a squeeze. Just someting to consider, as the market seems to reflect this. BOB: I see we had the same thoughts on gold, i posted before seeing your post.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 21:00)
Clearwater market timer William I. Ferree Jr., publisher of
the Ferree Market Timer, said stocks still need to have a
correction for the market to be healthy. Unless the market
falls at least 10 percent from its high, many market
analysts say it hasn't really corrected, and that has not
happened. The market had dropped 7.7 percent at one
point in August before it made a dramatic rally.

Ferree is looking for an even bigger decline.

"We're still overbought," he said. "I'm looking for a decline
to 7,000 at the end of October or the end of November."

(Wed Sep 17 1997 21:01)
..... Oldman .....

Oldman, I hardly knew you........ Stick around, you are exactly what this site needs.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 21:03)
To all:
"Don't let the bastards get you!" my grandfather used to say. By letting some idiots drive you away from Kitco, you are letting them win.
Don't give them the satisfaction. Your best weapon is to ignore them.
They feel empowerd when they get to you, when they draw you into their exchanges. Some of those idiots may have an agenda, some are doing it for fun, and some simply are that way.
OLDMAN and all who are considering quiting. DON'T!!!
All civilized posters know whose posts contribute to this site!
Get the bastards, don't let them get you!

(Wed Sep 17 1997 21:04)
KIWI: Gold Balls - try radius .275 inches @ 20 dedrees C.

Donald, Allen, & Lurker thanx on the 4 stacks

(Wed Sep 17 1997 21:05)
..... Oldman ......

Perhaps you could share some of the other sites you post ? ? ? ? ?

(Wed Sep 17 1997 21:09)
Skylark: Is that the same Merrill Lynch that is so heavily short GC calls??? The analyst report sounds like he might be talking the company book. Eh?

(Wed Sep 17 1997 21:12)
@the scene
Niner -- As much as I would dearly love to see the final washout, It just isn't happening. Maybe tomorrow. Maybe Friday. Maybe.... On the otherhand, I'm perfectly capable of quick entries and reversals as the case arises. I would not recommend such to anyone who is not 'spry'! I will be looking for a decent entry point and it may be nothing more than an intraday affair, baring how it turns out.

RJ -- Yes indeed He is!

(Wed Sep 17 1997 21:12)
This is dated Sept. 12, 1997. I don't recall seeing this before and it is very good news for gold.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 21:16)

cherokee@1951----------you too, et tu..........

(Wed Sep 17 1997 21:16)
Oldman: Please consider a reconsideration of your last post. "All that is necessary for evil ( or bad manners ) to triumph, is for good men to do nothing". ......... Disputation and intellectual intimidation by slanderous accusation is a dying art form. Return and enjoy the process of applying final nails to it's coffin.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 21:18)
It's that time...
Someone posted earlier regarding setting your computer clocks with software. I have had my clock ( cleaned also ) set at certain parts of the day for a while now. It is nuclear dudes...

Cool stuff!

away...just away...


(Wed Sep 17 1997 21:18)
SHEK: re your 21:03....I am in MAJOR agreement; although I may have said it slightly differently....ALL: don't let'em get to ya'!! ignore 'em!!!

(Wed Sep 17 1997 21:19)
Gold Faces new lows.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 21:20)
A Weakling in Comparison
EARL: You got that right. I think once these guys given an opinion that gold and silver are headed lower, for whatever reason, they continually give reasons to make sure their prediction comes true, just as I tend to search out reasons to support gold and silver going higher, except they have more muscle and are winning. : )

(Wed Sep 17 1997 21:23)
@been-there, done-that

i second earls' post to you..........

at the very least, how about a trust fund for die-hard goldbugs???
me, ted, willy?? ) -_- (

o.k. bart..................
......................whatcha' gonna do?????

(Wed Sep 17 1997 21:26)
Ex Fed Governor says CPI cut would save $1 trillion.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 21:26)
@the scene
RJ -- I'll share one that He frequents 'cause it is fairly widely known. That's Avid, where they swap ideas intraday on trading mainly Spoos, but not solely. Also stocks, OEX, etc. Commentary is kept short and sweet. Discussion is basically relegated to mainly the trading. Occasionally one might slip in a bit more. Beyond that, you're toast. I don't believe this site should become quite like that but perhaps a finer line needs to be walked. You'll have to sign up for a password. You may just lurk if you like. I will say that some of those people there can trade! will take you there. Click on the 'sign up and sign in' button at the upper right to get a password. I'm sure you'll find it to be 'fascinating'!

(Wed Sep 17 1997 21:28)
You're making yourself some golden Balls?

Doesn't that hurt?

Out here we've got Brass ones the size of church bells ;- )

I'm sure some of your Aussie neighbors will tell you they have the same... buy some brass polish

(Wed Sep 17 1997 21:30)
EARL: re your 21:16...well said!

(Wed Sep 17 1997 21:31)
Donald...your 21:12...I have also noticed that volume in some PM stocks has increased. Some looks to be moving from one to another...say, for example the BGOers might have relocated to SSC...but the overall volume is better than 2 weeks ago...slightly!

(Wed Sep 17 1997 21:41)
Minneapolis Fed Predident proposes lower limits on FDIC Insurance.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 21:44)

There is obviously more silver than just that stored at the Comex warehouses. The numbers I have seen range from a total of around 300 - 600MM oz with most of the guesses clustered at the low end of the range. To engineer a squeeze one need only enter into lots of paper contracts and then stand for delivery. Those needing to deliver will be in the position of having to find the silver out there.

On a related note, some portion of the warehouse stocks on the Comex may well be 'untouchable'. One of the people with whom I have spoken on this topic is the head of the precious metals trading desk at one of the large Wall St. firms. He is personally aware of much metal at the warehouse, which is in accounts managed by his desk, which has been parked for many years. This metal is not traded but is 'mattress' money for some clients wishing a diversification away from paper. It will not move regardless of price change, except perhaps in true extreme. It is likely that this phenomena is true for some of the other remaining stockpiles. In this regard we may be a lot closer to the 'real' bottom of inventories than is currently acknowledged.

If one believe the current supply/demand numbers then each business day another 750,000 ounces disappears into the void. The clock is ticking.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 21:48)
Elf aka Auroelf: Per your earlier post, I got the impression that you are still a follower of HM. What is your current read? As a result of your interest and BB Fisher, I've been occasionally scanning it's chart as well. ...... BTW, I've missed your presence and insight.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 21:52)
WATCHER: My post at 21:12 is consistent with the comments of another Kitcoite who told about the difficulty dealers were having keeping gold coins in stock. Mabye we will get something going here at these prices. Can't resist a sale!

(Wed Sep 17 1997 21:52)
Hi everyone! I've been lurking as usual, but alas I don't have that free-wheeling lifestyle of Ted's that allows me to play here as much as I would like. But I do have question for Front ( or whoever wants to contribute ) regarding the final meltdown where he says "cash will be king."

In the event of such a catastrophe, what exactly should we be doing? Should we have 100 dollar bills hidden in the freezer? How much gold should we have stashed away? And what should we use the gold for?

I'm not being stinky, I just want to take these views to their logical conclusion! :- ) )

Bill Buckler
(Wed Sep 17 1997 21:53)
A point to ponder: Many media reports, both on the Net and in print, state that Gold traders in the U.S., Europe, and Asia are now in general agreement that the Central Banks have put a $US 325 ceiling on the price.

If that is true, it is, of course, a recognition of Central Bank manipulation. And if Central Banks really do manipulate the Gold price, what does that imply about all the "reasons" given for Gold's weakness over the past 18 months?

I have a new editorial up at The Privateer dealing with this subject. I was surprised not to see the Gold price fall further in the U.S., especially given the fact that Asian currencies did another swan dive.

It is also interesting that the "ceiling" price that most traders now think is in place almost exactly bisects the $US 318-330 range in which Gold has been moving for the past six weeks. The difference between $US 318 and $US 325 is not very comfortable for the Central Banks ( assuming of course, that the traders are right and they are manipulatingthe price ) . Nor is it very comfortable for the huge overhang of speculative shorts.

The thing that will be particularly interesting is if those who have decided that the Central Banks have decided on a ceiling for Gold go on to ask the next question - WHY? Kind of makes a mockery of Aussie Treasurer Mr Costello's statement that Gold has little place in the modern financial system. If that was really so, then why bother monkeying with the price?

Gold is going to have to break below the bottom of its trading range, soon. If it doesn't, then the risk is that $US 325 will be taken out on the upside. If Gold traders are REALLY convinced that the Central Banks have capped the price, a break above $US 325 could lead them to only one conclusion - the CBs are losing control of Gold.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 21:54)
D.A.: "which is in accounts managed by his desk, which has been parked for many years." ...... What is the mechanism by which they do this? And why isn't that 'storage' number subtracted from the overall total?? Thanks.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 21:57)
How about the COT figures.
D.A. Thanks for the response. I agree with your thinking. Logically, if there were all that silver elsewhere, then the warehouse stocks should not be depleting so fast. or if both sources are decreasing equally, then it is even more bullish. In a related matter, can you explain why, if silver is in tight supply as believed, according to the COT figures, the commercial positions are not very bullish.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 21:59)
SCOTTY: For the catastrophe I think you would be better off with 20's and silver coins.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 22:07)
BILL BUCKLER: I haven't read the editorial yet but will do so in a few minutes. The first thought that comes to mind is the highly likely possibility that one or more CB's will break ranks and act on their own and in their own best interest; or, break ranks and act as a bloc. We are close to a European bloc and an Asian bloc already in my opinion. Japan has been getting more cozy with China than the U.S. etc.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 22:13)
Some random points:

1 ) The gold junior I watch the closest on the TSE has had the largest volume over the last two weeks since last Nov. Obvious instituional buying with the price moving from 1.70 to 2.30 and the stock is still half of a conservative NAV. Let the rally begin! I hope this has been broad based for those involved.

2 ) Did anyone else catch Mark Howelesko from Templeton on CNNFN today? This is nothing new to people on this site, but he made a direct comparison between Japan in 89 and the US now. "World is awash with liquidity" and noted that when the bubble pops it can take a very long time to get back to par. Japan is still struggling and the stock market is half of what it was 8 years ago. Said he would rather buy Asia at 60% of book value than most of the US at 600% of book value but doesn't know how long it will take for a turn around. Sounds much like investing in gold!

3 ) I heard the comment today that with the lease rate now 3%+ from a norm of 1-1.5% only two things could be happening: either producers are hedging or central banks are selling big volume. Given the poor contango it is unlikely that producers are hedging so the conclusion was that central banks must be selling. Is there a problem with this logic?

Any comments on this last point would be appreciated because I know just enough about the issue to be dangerous.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 22:13)
@the scene
Bill Buckler -- Your last paragragh! I'm with you there! Time is very short and near at hand! I want to see the 'bay' get emtied; I.E. a lower break in the gold price. Then I'll know a 'Tsunami' is truly at hand! When that should happen, It'll be good for the metals but also the time to finish prepping that foxhole! In the mean time, my 'vibes' are acting up and causing some 'discomfort'. I 'may' have to do a little 'playing' before the supposed washout if given some 'numbers'.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 22:13)
PUETZ LETTER - BULL KILLERS: Over-valuation & Leverage
Leverage is the vehicle that pushes markets beyond prudent levels. Once bull market reverses, leverage is the catalyst for panic selling. Short-interest level & NYSE Seats price bearish:

(Wed Sep 17 1997 22:14)
GRAND LBMA EXPOS: A Collective-Mind Analysis - Compiled by Red Baron -- PART 2 (September 15, 1997)
London Bullion Marketing Association ( LBMA ) is best described as a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma. Daily gold trading nearly 50% yearly production. Who & Why?

(Wed Sep 17 1997 22:17)
A Price Fix?

BILL BUCKLER: Thank you for your invitation to your commentary. As usual, it is well-stated. However, I have a problem accepting the concept that there is 325 cap. If that is true, than certainly sophisticated traders supporting gold at this level would also know about it - and if they did, why would they support it when there can be appreciable profit in it. That is of course unless they thought it would go higher despite CB selling and in today's economic environment, that would not seem likely. In addition, major producers, such as NEM should have access to such information and if so why would they cover their hedges on the expectation that gold will go higher. Moreover, if a CB desires to sell gold, then the cap on the price prevents it from getting a higher market value for the sale - so it is self-defeating. Finally, I would think that producing countries such as RSA would complain bitterly about any such price-fixing.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 22:24)
@the scene
Bill Buckler -- Your last paragragh! I'm with you there! Time is very short and near at hand! I want to see the 'bay' get emtied; I.E. a lower break in the gold price. Then I'll know a 'Tsunami' is truly at hand! When that should happen, It'll be good for the metals but also the time to finish prepping that foxhole! In the mean time, my 'vibes' are acting up and causing some 'discomfort'. I 'may' have to do a little 'playing' before the supposed washout if given some 'numbers'.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 22:30)
To All,
Is gold in the process of forming the mother of all double bottoms right now?

(Wed Sep 17 1997 22:31)
..... ! ? ! ? ! .....

Read all the "Clan of the Cave Bear" books. You a right that the best way to deal with undesirables, is to ignore them. The books were good, but I suspect their popularity has as much to do with the soft core porn style as the storytelling.

Senator Blutarsky
Not Flounder ! ? ! ? ! ? ! ?

Keepin' an eye on Nora. I think the entire country will be focusing on our weather woes this year. Could you imagine a hurricane hitting coastal LA? There are 15 million people within 50 miles of the ocean here. Devastation.

.. Surfy Boy ..

Your Kitco name shall be. Wedgie

AwayTo . ?? .. ?? .. Whatever

(Wed Sep 17 1997 22:31)
@the scene
I hate it when it does that! Down with double postings!

(Wed Sep 17 1997 22:40)
FREE SPEECH: I'm all for free speech. However, speech -- as with any other human action -- can be carried to the abusive stage. That's what the squelchers have been complaining about here at Kitco. While there is free speech in the US, that speech is restricted to the extent that malicious and/or false attacks on the character of individuals is punishable by law, with the punishment in line with the severity of the attack.

There should be no restrictions on how hot a debate of ideas becomes. However, when name-calling, person attacks, insults, and the like get thrown into the debate, some restrictions on speech become essential. That's true in society, and needs to be here at Kitco also.

Oldman's idea of a password requirement to post at Kitco might be a step in the right direction.

Senator Blutarsky
(Wed Sep 17 1997 22:42)
Was It OVER When The Germans Sold 2/3 Of Their Gold?

RJ--From now on your Delta Name is Platinum. HepCat--From now on your Kitco name is Dean Wormer.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 22:46)
Savage: I believe gold is forming a double bottom. If stocks somehow manage to lift-off again, with the DJIA breaking above 8300, then a break below $325 is likely. However, I don't believe that's the case.

Lately, gold and silver have been moving opposite to secondary stocks. Secondaries were up again today -- even though the DJIA and S&P were down. One the Russell 2000 reverses its uptrend, then gold and silver will take off. I believe that's going to happen any day. The activity in secondary stocks is simply getting too frothy these days.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 22:49)
RE: Posting valid e-mail addresses. Will everybody who wants the screwballs that this site continually attracts to have access to their e-mail addresses for future reference please signify at their earliest convenience.

Those who already have posted the funnels into their hard drives can sleep tight with the knowledge that the search facility is inoperable at the moment.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 22:49)
@the scene
RJ -- And one would think that earthquakes and mudslides are all that there is to worry about! Remember Florida? And that was a compact hurricane; not widely spread out. Total devastation in its swath! Just say no! North Carolina is also still recovering from its hurricane of last year. It basically followed I-40 on up past Durham before its winds were below hurricane strength, and STILL caused a lot of damage! It's not just the wind speed but the water saturation and duration of the winds that knock trees over onto houses and cars, and knock out power. If it should happen, be prepared for at least several days without power and a store that's available to buy from. Been there, seen it, done it, didn't like it!

(Wed Sep 17 1997 22:52)
Earl: Each time I am tempted to buy a little more HM if it drops below 13, I take another look at the longer term chart. See that price under 10 at the beginning of 1993? and from 1984-1986? Those frequently revisited points give me pause. So far this summer the 12 3/4 low was followed by a 12 5/16 lower low. I can't put a technical name on it, just a feeling. I am being conditioned to wait for a still lower low, which probably means I'll miss the bottom if we are near it, but I have had orders from Earl ( : ) ) to swear off bottom fishing this year. The Homestake quarterly report that came in today's mail puts a good face on the losses, but doesn't give me any reason to jump in and buy more yet. I don't short, so HM is still a chart to watch, not a stock to buy. If I am wrong, and the bottom is in, well Hooray. I shall be glad when the whole gold complex finally rallies. Meanwhile, is there a candlestick formation called The Chicken?

C.V. Compton Shaw
(Wed Sep 17 1997 22:56)
My model for both the long and short term of the xau is bearish, while gold is now bearish both long and short term. Interest rates have turned bearish ( bullish for bonds ) both long and short term. The major indicies are now bullish both long and short term. However, the crb is bullish both long and short term and the dollar remains bearish short term and bullish long term.Given the above I would not now take any further positions expecting a reversal in the current down trend in the xau and gold and/or a down trend in the major market indicies; however, I would not sell any of the current long positions that I hold in the xau or gold. I would not purchase any further short positions in the major market indicies and I would not sell any of the ones currently held.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 22:59)
Fundy: I'm not sure if you e-mail statement was in reference to the password idea suggested by Oldman, and given a second approval by me. If it was, what I am suggesting is that each poster obtain a Handle and Password from Bart. The e-mail address can be optional. If a poster abuses his free-speech rights by making unfounded personal attacks against other posters, is warned, and then continues to abuse these rights, then Bart should have the right to withdraw his password, and thus revoking the abusers posting privileges. Already, a few posters are consistenly abusing those rights.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 22:59)

there is a chart on this site bottom of sept 16 report.
re: excess m3
interesting how flat line is same as line on gold chart 94 95
was looking for that for a while.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 23:07)
Oldman: RJ had a good idea. Maybe you could share with us the other chat-sites that have password requirements for posters.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 23:08)
@the scene
Elf -- If HM goes from 12.5 to 15 in one day, that might be one called 'chicken', if you either were not aboard, or worse, failed to get aboard during that move. Else, I would claim one to be in the opposite direction that you didn't take immediate advantage of. Watch the numbers closely and the chart. They can potentially tell you much if you pay attention to its behavior about support/resistance areas and other trend lines. I'll say here that I don't trade stocks because there is too much to have to know about any of them, but the price action against the above criteria can still say 'much'!

(Wed Sep 17 1997 23:08)
@ holy sh!t and EB
Don't tell me my ISP ( god bless em ) will let me enter a site on the "net" and maybe even actually post a worthless comment...Haven't been able to enter ONE site on everthing I tried...for hours....but, hey...what else is new??? ...Am clue-less as to what is "happening" tonight and will now try and post ...and then if I'm damn lucky I'll try another site ta see what's "up"

(Wed Sep 17 1997 23:15)
Oldman: What a time to take a powder. Just when the party is starting to get lively. Puetz: Agree with your free speech comments. I might add that the speech here is not free, its paid for by Bart. This site exists, I presume, to promote the Kitco business. He has every right to dictate who gets to speak and who doesn't. His guidelines call for speech as though you were having a face to face conversation. Lately that rule has been broken on a regular basis and I for one have no problems about him banning the offenders.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 23:16)
Update @ :00 Past The Hour

Nikkei up 100. Hang Seng down 114. Gold at 3-2-0-.5

(Wed Sep 17 1997 23:19)
"It is always darkest just before the dawn"


(Wed Sep 17 1997 23:25)
JollyMiller Note
I saw a pimply faced kid get stomped in Alpine Texas because he asked a certain ranchers daughter to dance. 1-He had his hat on. 2 He didnt compliment the ranchers wife. 3-He didnt ask the ranchers permission. To sum it up he showed poor breeding and bad manners. There are pleanty of forums for an ill mannered pimply faced child to post to. From your post today you do not want to add anything to the discussion you just want to shout in your cute child voice. Only thing is all you squeek is noise.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 23:26)
El Nino

freeze warning Sunday Texas panhandle

(Wed Sep 17 1997 23:27)

Bill Buckler
(Wed Sep 17 1997 23:29)
Skylark ( Sept 17 22:17 ) I didn't say there IS a cap on the Gold price at $US 325, I said that the consensus from the trading floors is that Gold traders THINK there is a cap there. "Sophisticated" traders who have decided that the cap exists are probably looking for a trading range - ceiling at $US 325 and floor at $US ??? within which to trade.

A really "sophisticated" trader doesn't care which way the price moves, as long as it moves. And he or she loves trading ranges - the wider the better.

Whether the traders are right or wrong about the Gold ceiling of $US 325 is not of primary importance. What is of primary importance is the simple fact that in positing the existence of such a ceiling, they acknowledge that Central Banks are manipulating the Gold price. I have seen this acknowledged in a lot of places from a lot of knowledgeable people, but I have not seen it coming from the floor, and appearing in the popular press, until now.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 23:36)

Latest on NORA from National Hurricane Center--Nora expected to become hurricane in next 12 hours.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 23:37)
The whole fields business are very terrible!More goods are in "big big cheap sale",but,NO CUSTOMERS AT ALL!GOLD,CURRENCY,STOCKS,.....EVERY THINGS TURN GREY!
Life still go on and on...happy always!?

(Wed Sep 17 1997 23:38)
Shareholders @ Proposals & Annual Reports = disinformation.(on & on it goes)
September 17, 1997

U.S. Atty indicts former Cal Micro ( CAMD.O ) execs

SAN JOSE, Calif., Sept 17 ( Reuter ) - A federal grand jury has indicted three former senior executives of California Micro Devices Inc. on charges of securities fraud and insider trading in 1993 and 1994, a federal prosecutor said Wednesday.

The indictment charges the defendants with causing Cal Micro to file misleading quarterly and annual reports with the SEC in 1994, which included millions of dollars of reported product revenue while no such product had been shipped.

September 17, 1997

SEC eyes reforms to shareholder proposal process

WASHINGTON ( Reuter ) - The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is expected to unveil proposals that would open up corporate proxy materials to a wider range of shareholder proposals, including anti-discrimination initiatives.

The proposals to be unveiled Thursday would be a departure from the agency's stance held lately that employment and other workplace issues are not generally a voting matter for corporate shareholders.

(Wed Sep 17 1997 23:56)
South Africa Wage deal
How long before this filters into the earnings statements?