Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

Kitco Inc. does not exercise any editorial control over the content of this discussion group and therefore does not necessarily endorse any statements that are made or assert the truthfulness or reliability of the information provided.

George Cole
(Mon Sep 22 1997 01:01)
RON: Thanks for your very detailed data on the G-7 meetings. Looks like I was mistaken about a consistent relationship between gold movements and G-7 meetings. But bullion did plunge soon after last June's conclave.

(Mon Sep 22 1997 01:12)

If you don't like what they are doing to you; drop those US Senators and Congressmen a few, some lines concerning your feelings about them. They are all listed here.

(Mon Sep 22 1997 01:25)
SkyLark & JTFlick -re -- LBMA & Defferred Settlement Trading,

Thank you for your thought-provoking replies. Being of a suspicious bent, I suspect there is more here than meets the eye. I shall go looking for sweet tasting strawberries.

It is the LBMA connection that haunts...

Seeking de troof in de queerest of places, Nah?


(Mon Sep 22 1997 01:46)
Asia down again!
Index Move %Move
Hong Kong 14114.43 -269.70 -1.87
Japan 18203.02 +144.81 +.80
Singapore 1890.71 -4.02 -.21
Malaysia 753.94 -33.90 -4.30
South Korea 671.30 -8.67 -1.28
Thailand 521.30 -2.00 -.38
China 1445.16 -92.12 -5.99
Indonesia 537.29 +6.21 +1.17
India 3825.12 -59.65 -1.54

Nick@Canberra. Noticing how you like bottom picking Oz shares. I have an access program for picking up movement in the small Australian gold miners. It analises end of day data and works well. If you would like a copy email me at

(Mon Sep 22 1997 02:32)
Japan + Thailand + USofA @ Greenspan Attends
September 22, 1997
Japan sticks to economic policy wager amid risks

TOKYO, Sept 22 ( Reuter ) - Neither warnings from Washington nor Tokyo's own misgivings about its economy look likely to weaken Japan's commitment to a tight fiscal stance despite persistent worries that growth might falter further.

"We had a rather candid discussion about the economic situation in our respective countries," U.S. Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin told a news conference on Saturday."It is fair to say that they, too, are concerned about domestic demand and sustainable, solid growth," Rubin added.

"I think anything they were to do in the next few months is going to have at best a medium-term effect," said Robert Hormats, vice-chairman of Goldman Sachs in Hong Kong. "There is very little the Japanese can do to rev up the economy quickly."

September 22, 1997
U.S., Japan tell Thais to get economy into shape

HONG KONG, Sept 22 ( Reuter ) - Thailand was told on Monday to get its economy back on track and make sure it stuck to the conditions of an international bail-out.

The one-hour talks, also attended by U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan and Thai central bank Governor Chaiyawat Wibulswasdi, took place during the annual World Bank/IMF meetings in Hong Kong.

Thanong said Rubin had given him advice on how to tackle the problem, citing U.S. experience with Mexico which had to seek the help of the international community in 1995 after its peso crisis.

September 22, 1997
U.S. urges Thailand to press on with IMF programme

HONG KONG, Sept 22 ( Reuter ) - U.S. Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin on Monday said that Thailand should vigorously implement its IMF programme and said its financial stability was of great importance to the U.S. and Asia as a whole.

"Thailand's financial stability is of great importance to the United States and to the Southeast Asian region as a whole," a U.S. Treasury spokesman told reporters after talks between Rubin and his Thai counterpart Thanong Bidaya.

(Mon Sep 22 1997 02:46)
Soros + Mahathir + World Bank/IMF meetings + Central Banks + G7 + MIGA @ Hong Kong
September 22, 1997
Soros says he wants no battle with Mahathir

HONG KONG, Sept 21 ( Reuter ) - Financier George Soros tried in an interview broadcast on Monday to calm a row over Asia's financial crisis with Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad, the man who once called him a moron.

Soros told Singapore-based Asia Business News television that the investment funds he controls played only a minor role in the Southeast Asian market turmoil that Mahathir has blamed on him.

"We really played really a minor role in the markets and certainly not a destabilising role, because we were not selling any ringgit or any ASEAN currencies for at least two months before the crisis hit, or during the crisis."

He said: "Except for one transaction of $10 million in Thai baht, we had no transaction during that period selling those currencies. We were actually during the crisis buying ringgit, so if anything we were having a stabilising effect."
In his ABN interview, Soros defended the role of financial markets. "The markets have done a lot of good. But I also think the markets very often get carried away. They're irrational, and I for one am a critic of markets."

September 21, 1997
World Bank meeting focuses on debt relief, graft

HONG KONG, Sept 22 ( Reuter ) - The focus of the annual World Bank/IMF meetings shifted on Monday to debt relief and how to deal with the sensitive subject of corruption.

Efforts to slash the burden of debt facing the world's poor countries appears to be finally bearing fruit with the so-called Highly Indebted Poor Countries ( HIPC ) initiative.

- would also look at a capital increase for Mulilateral Investment Guarantee Agency ( MIGA ) . The agency is used by the Bank to guarantee private sector investments in developing country projects where commercial banks consider it too risky or unprofitable to go.
However, there has been some resistance from the United States because of its own budgetary constraints.

(Mon Sep 22 1997 03:16)
@ thpeechlethh with thoroth
Quoth Soros "They're irrational, and I for one am a critic of markets." Ummmm, is this disinformation or datinformation??

(Mon Sep 22 1997 03:34)
LBMA @ Turkey Gold Bourse 10 % = $80 Billion + 10 tons????????



(Mon Sep 22 1997 03:44)
Aurator @ 3:16
Much of what is being said in Hong Kong, by the great one's is. Ummmmmmm
disinformation, likely eh! Take care

(Mon Sep 22 1997 03:47)
Turkey Gold Bourse @ 10,000 tons???????????

(Mon Sep 22 1997 04:38)

Question # ( 1 ) Regarding the Hourly Gold Charts.

Consider say FSAGX over 10 a ten day interval.

Find the Minimum NAV for FSAGX for this time interval.

Now subtract this minimum from all the NAV data points

in the subject window; Then divide these differences by

the above minimum and multiply by 100.

This process then yields the percentage growth of the

fund, from the fund's low point for the subject time interval.


Question # ( 2 ) What is my relationship with Fidelity Investments

I have NO relationship with Fidelity Investments.

I have tracked and invested in their Sector funds since 82.

So many friends asked to follow what I was doing, I

simply decided to post, what I generate on my home computer.

I hope the above helps

Good LUCK with your Investments


(Mon Sep 22 1997 04:39)
Gold @ Istanbul world gold trade centre (Inflation rate 88%)
September 17, 1997 Wednesday

Central Bank's report arose interest in US Chairman of the Central Bank, Gazi Erel, answered of foreign correspondents, concerning the recent
report prepared by the Bank. The report estimates %6 growth rate for Turkey's economy by the end of the year and an inflation rate of %88.

Istanbul to become the world center of gold trade US$ 20 million will be invested for the gold refinery which will be established in Istanbul. State Mint has allocated its building in Yeni Bosna to Istanbul Gold Exchange, where the refinery will start operating at the second half of 1998.

(Mon Sep 22 1997 04:58)
6PAK: Appreciate all the good info you post here.
ALL: If you are interested in the prospects of the EURO becoming reality in 1999 read an excellent article in NY Times by Roger Cohen. Appeared in Orange County Register Sept 21. When in NY Times unknown.

(Mon Sep 22 1997 05:44)
Eurogold @ Suspend License - cyanide extraction
Villagers of Ovacik a small village near Bergama, are the winners of the long legal fight against Eurogold, a multinational gold mining company. Council of State decided to suspend Eurogolds license for cyanide based gold extraction plant. Cyanide using process was found contrary to the Constitutions article on "the right to live in a healthy environment." Villagers celebrated their victory with a picnic on the construction site. About ten days later, Eurogolds site was attacked and offices destroyed. Several villagers were arrested. It is difficult to figure out why they should get involved in such an act of violence when they have won the legal fight. They must be wondering the same.

(Mon Sep 22 1997 06:29)
Rivlin Says Financial Instability Dangers `Haunt' Regulators

The danger of financial instability in developing nations is a specter ``haunting'' international financial
regulators, U.S. Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Alice Rivlin said. Rivlin called the danger of
economic instability spreading among nations ``profoundly scary,'' at a time when the rapid flow of
capital is eroding national borders. Her comments came in a speech to the Institute of International
Bankers, meeting in conjunction with the International Monetary Fund/World Bank annual meeting.
``In many cases, the political-regulatory world that polices and enforces these borders is lagging
behind . . . the dangers of financial instability and market collapse that could intensify human misery
if things go wrong,'' Rivlin said. She didn't mention the U.S. economy or U.S. monetary policy in
her remarks.

(Mon Sep 22 1997 06:33)
( Could this be serious? Seems to me it could. )
ING Confirms NYSE Audit; Says Problems Due to Increased Trade

ING Baring is being audited by the New York Stock Exchange for amassing a backlog of unsettled
stock trades. It said the problems stem from a surge in emerging-market trading, a spokesman said.
The investment-banking unit of ING Groep NV, of the Netherlands, also denied a newspaper
report that the probe may result in the resignation of chief operating officer Ned Schoenfeld. The
trades at issue are related to emerging markets, which is the U.S. broker's main focus, Krijgsman
said. Such trades are more difficult to reconcile than those cleared in the U.S. or Europe, he said.

(Mon Sep 22 1997 06:38)
Troubles in Japan worsen.

(Mon Sep 22 1997 06:43)
Asian farmers feel the pain of currency turmoil.

(Mon Sep 22 1997 06:47)
IBM advances computer chip technology using copper

'IBM Copper chips' graphic September 21, 1997
Web posted at: 7:32 p.m. EDT ( 2332 GMT )

NEW YORK ( AP ) -- IBM has found a way to make computer chips with
copper instead of aluminum, a breakthrough designed to speed up
computers and make them more affordable.

Copper carries electrical signals faster than aluminum, long the
industry standard, but is harder to apply to the silicon surface of
each chip.

International Business Machines Corp. on Monday plans to announce
it will start selling copper chips early next year.

Switching metals could speed a microprocessor up to 40 percent
while reducing its manufacturing cost by up to 30 percent,
resulting in computers that think faster and store more
information, it said.

The technology will enable chips to operate on less electricity,
making them useful for laptop computers and other battery-operated

IBM will include the copper in chips that are the tiny brains and
storage bins of computers it sells as well as in chips it sells to
other computer and electronics makers.

The copper carries signals between the millions of transistors
packed into each thumb-nail size surface.

IBM said its new manufacturing process enables it to make
transistors more than 500 times thinner than human hair, or about
30 percent smaller than the circuitry in the most sophisticated
chips now available.

The advance is the latest in ongoing efforts to boost performance
of circuits that control the basic functions of computers and
electronics devices.

Last week, Intel Corp. unveiled a way to boost the storage capacity
of "flash memory" chips, the circuitry that lets computers and
other devices hold information even when they're turned off.

As efforts to squeeze more out of computer chips clash with
physical laws, manufacturers have been forced to come up with more
and more creative methods.

"Aluminum wouldn't have been able to carry enough electricity to
keep up the pace. We just broke through one of the fundamental
walls," said John Kelly, vice president for technology in IBM's
chip division.

Because copper is tough to apply, IBM developed a special compound
to put between the copper and the silicon base, Kelly said. In
addition, IBM designed a new way to flatten the copper that permits
the layering of many wires inside chips.

The company has no immediate plans to license its copper technology
to other chip makers, Kelly said.

(Mon Sep 22 1997 06:54)
@the WSJ
IMF members are adding $285 billion to reserves due to currency crises ( plural ) . Last time I checked, that's our tax money going down the toilet.

And how about the link between the stock market and the dollar? Catch the last sentence in this:
Dollar's Link to Stock Prices
Puzzles Some Money Managers


Foreign interest in U.S. stocks is being
reflected in an unusual link between Wall
Street and the dollar, and that's confusing
some money managers.

Simply put, as the U.S. stock market rises,
the dollar climbs along with it --
especially against the mark and other
European currencies. And when Wall
Street retreats, so does the greenback.

"It's quite rare to see this kind of
significant positive correlation," says Ray
Dalio, president and chief investment
officer at Bridgewater Associates Inc., a
Wilton, Conn., firm that manages more than
$8 billion in currencies and global bonds.
"Typically, this isn't a straightforward
linkage, but now we're seeing the direction
of the stock market having a big potential
and actual impact on the dollar."

Many markets tend to move in tandem,
including the U.S. stock and bond markets.
And this isn't the first time the dollar has
marched up and down alongside another
U.S. financial market. In 1994, for
example, the dollar closely paralleled the
moves of the U.S. Treasury market.

But the more recent dollar-Wall Street
correlation has intrigued money managers
and analysts. From the end of last year to
Aug. 6, the Dow Jones Industrial Average
rose 28% to a record while the dollar
climbed 23% against the mark. Since then,
U.S. stocks have fallen 4.1%, the dollar

To explain the pattern, analysts point to the
capital flows into the U.S. As European
and Asian economies remain sluggish or
downright troubled, says Michael Burke, a
London-based economist for Citibank, the
American "economic miracle" looms in
stark contrast, luring many overseas
investors into dollar-denominated assets,
such as stocks and bonds. Technological
change, soaring productivity and the impact
of huge corporate restructuring moves are
convincing more foreign investors that they
should buy stocks in the companies
benefiting from these initiatives.

To many, the growing correlation between
the dollar and U.S. stocks also reflects the
expansion of world trade, increasing
cross-border stock investment and the
growing transparency of global stock

As corporations buy and sell more
internationally, "there's no question
companies must be more
currency-sensitive," says Michael Hintze, a
managing director at Credit Suisse First
Boston in London. "And if their underlying
business is more currency-sensitive, it
follows that the capital markets must be
more currency-sensitive."

The tighter link between U.S. stock prices
and the dollar is an aberration that says
nothing about the market, some contend.
But Avinash Persaud, head of currency
research at J.P. Morgan & Co. in London,
notes that bond investors have long
recognized the importance of crossborder
capital flows in valuing fixed-income
markets. Now, he says, "The increasing
role played by international investors in
equity markets could alter the valuations in
those markets."

Mr. Dalio's concerns are more immediate.
"What you see from this pattern is that
international investors are now more
volatile and more sensitive to the health of
the U.S. economy," says the Bridgewater
Associates executive. "There's the
perception that if they feel it's grown too
risky to be in stocks, they'll pull out, and
that will send the dollar down as well."

Mixed with a dose of nervousness about
corporate earnings, the dollar-stock market
connection certainly has its downside,
particularly as a growing proportion of
U.S. company profits come from abroad.
Katherine Jenkins, a portfolio manager at
Hill Samuel Asset Management in London,
notes how U.S. shares fell after Coca-Cola
Co. and Gillette Co. reported
lower-than-expected earnings because of
currency fluctuations.

The increasing volatility of both U.S.
stocks and the dollar is already making
overseas investors jumpy.

"The dollar is quite volatile, and that
means your [investment] return is much
more volatile," says Hans Peters, a
strategist at Fortis Investments in Utrecht,
the Netherlands. Still, not everyone is a
believer in tracking the dollar/stock link.
"It's just something people latch onto," says
Mr. Hintze of Credit Suisse First Boston.
"It's a theme that's taken people's

Even Mr. Burke of Citibank concedes that
the dollar-Wall Street correlation may be
strengthening because "a lot of investors
are monitoring it, rather than any
fundamental link between the two." Mr.
Peters of Fortis believes the dollar-stock
link is "a temporary thing." He sees the
greenback falling as European growth
picks up and the interest-rate differential
between 10-year German and U.S.
government bonds narrows. "The dollar
will decline regardless of what the stock
market does," he says.

(Mon Sep 22 1997 07:33)
Mornin up .40....European equity markets to the upside and Asia mixed mixed with only China+Malaysia down big....Shanghai Composite down 6.8%....Hang Seng Down 1.92%....and KLSE down over 3%...
Weather:52 degrees+ sunny....

(Mon Sep 22 1997 07:36)

There are bulls, there are bears. But what does the "RHINO" have to say about bonds and gold? Find out in TRADING THE RHINO, Mike Sheller's trading strategy that even a kid can use:

(Mon Sep 22 1997 07:42)
...good morning all...
Donald ... looks like I can have another 'day off'. Thanks.
Sounds like we're in 'high gear'. Full court press or blitz until a turnover or fumble with goldbugs 'recovering' and going all the way.

Thanks Speed for WSJ article.

Go gold.

(Mon Sep 22 1997 07:42)
Joke of the morn
Morning all. Ted, glad you're up and at 'em. We may see the sun in the Taco Belt for the first time in about three days. Its been raining constantly for two days. It looks like soy and wheat markets tanking again. Ted, I think you will find a kindred spirit in the following story.

John worked hard his whole life, and a few years before
he was ready to retire, he decided to buy some acreage on
the edge of the rain forest, since he loved animals and nature.
He built a big beautiful home with a balcony all around
on the second floor to give him the beautiful view and
serenity that he has been seeking for so long.

He thought to himself, "When I retire, this is where I will
live out my last days, with no one around, no phones, TV or
newspapers, only my computer so I can e-mail my friends back
home."The day finally came around and he retired. He moved
out to his land next to the rain forest. One day he was
relaxing out on the balcony, when he looked up and saw this
giant Ape sitting up in a tree watching him.

He was frustrated and thought to himself "I moved out here
so no one could bother me, and now I have this Ape watching
my every move. He e-mailed the animal control center and wrote
"There is this big ape up in a tree staring at me and watching
my every move. Can you come and do something about it?"
The control officer e-mailed him back "It will take me two
days to get there, but I will come as fast as I can".
A couple of days passed and suddenly appeared a four wheel
drive vehicle coming up to his home.

John enthusiastically went out to meet the officer
from animal control. The officer jumped out and starts
unloading. First an immense coil of rope,
then a fierce looking dog and finally a shot gun.

He handed the shot gun to the man and said "I will climb
that tree and shake the ape out, and when he hits the ground,
this police attack dog, who was raised from a puppy by commandos,
is trained to get him by the groin and hang on while I tie up the ape.

John, concerned that they may kill the ape asked
"What is the shot gun for". The animal control officer replied
"If while shaking the tree, I fall out before
the ape, shoot the dog."

(Mon Sep 22 1997 07:43)
Good Morning Ted: We are at only 44F this AM. That 1 hour makes a difference.

(Mon Sep 22 1997 07:50)
Hello TED of Cape B.

This is an ISP located in Vancouver B.C. whose rates are cheaper than most US based ISP's

(Mon Sep 22 1997 07:53)
EMU (no slam dunk, despite reassurances)
..squabbling within Germany continues, German states can veto.
Germany's Kohl supports euro despite

Copyright  1997
Copyright  1997 Reuter Information Service

BONN ( September 21, 1997 11:39 a.m. EDT ) - Despite signs of
growing public skepticism about moving Europe to a single currency,
Chancellor Helmut Kohl restated his commitment on Sunday to
launching the euro on schedule.

Bavarian premier Edmund Stoiber, Germany's leading euro-skeptic,
warned Kohl's coalition government that sheer force of political will
was not enough to push it through.

Stoiber said Bavaria and other German federal states represented in
the upper house of parliament could veto the country's participation in
the project if there were any attempt to replace the mark with a softer

But in a column in Berlin's Tagespiegel newspaper Kohl wrote that
Germany needed the single currency to "perfect" the domestic market
by boosting growth and competitiveness. It was also the best
guarantee of lasting peace in Europe, he said.

"I have no doubt that the euro will arrive -- and indeed according to the
timetable and in strict adherence to the criteria set down in the
Maastricht treaty," Kohl wrote.

But a survey by Emnid research institute published on Saturday said
60 percent of Germans did not think the euro would come on time,
while only 39 percent believed it would.

Opinion polls regularly show a majority of Germans are opposed to
swapping their beloved mark for an untested euro.

Kohl's latest eulogy to the euro was timed to appear after a
Franco-German summit in Weimar in which French and German
leaders were at pains to show their twin motor driving European
economic and monetary union ( EMU ) was in good shape.

But in an interview with Bild am Sonntag newspaper, Stoiber said
France's weak economic data suggested Bonn might attempt to
replace the mark with a soft euro -- something he argued the German
states would oppose and had the power to veto.

His comments suggested Kohl's Christian Democrats ( CDU ) and
members of its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union
( CSU ) , had not yet laid to rest a row over EMU since the Socialist
election victory in Paris in June.

Stoiber said that, apart from fulfilling the economic entry criteria for
EMU, Bonn would need the approval of both houses of parliament and
have to heed the German central bank and the European Monetary
Institute before the decision in spring 1998 on which countries join

He insisted they had to fulfil the three percent of budget deficit to gross
domestic product entry criterion precisely to the decimal point and that
anything above 3.0 was unacceptable.

"If France and Germany do not attain the 3.0 then we in the upper
house of parliament will do as we have always said, ( that is ) , if there is
any attempt to create soft euro then we will oppose it," Stoiber said.

Kohl allies contend that once Bonn gives the currency project its go
ahead, neither house of the German parliament nor the German
Constitutional Court can stop it.

But Kurt Faltlhauser, the Bavarian state minister for European affairs,
said this was wrong, according to a report in the Frankfurter
Rundschau newspaper on Saturday.

He said a vote in either house of parliaement against launching the
currency would be legally-binding, citing a 1992 internal paper of
Finance Minister Theo Waigel.

-- By FIONA FLECK, Reuters

(Mon Sep 22 1997 08:00)
Clinton (Reno coverup?)
...oldman...first Clinton.... ( Starr still working on Hillary.... ) ...
Records of President Clinton's White
House fund-raising calls that caused
Attorney General Janet Reno to take the
first step in a process that could lead to
appointment of an independent counsel
were turned over to a Justice Department task force several months ago.

But they were not examined by department attorneys until a few days ago
because of confused document-handling procedures, government officials
said yesterday.

The officials said the records pertained to "a handful" of calls -- although
they said the number may be considerably larger -- made by Clinton over
an unspecified period of time before last year's election and that Reno
ordered the review to determine whether any money generated by the calls
was placed in strictly regulated campaign accounts, which would be a
violation of federal law.

(Mon Sep 22 1997 08:04)
More on the IBM chip. Could this be a trigger? Take a whack at the market leaders, Dell? Compaq?. That would hurt a lot of portfolios who are heavy in those high flyer stocks.

(Mon Sep 22 1997 08:06)
@Tort,Donald,and jfkdlsa
Tort:yeah,I can relate to that one....good joke ta start the week off!! Donald:brrrrrr...summer IS over!...jfkdlsa ( 7:50 ) Wrong coast...S+P futures up 3.40 and Dollar strong....

(Mon Sep 22 1997 08:08)
Ickes said he was "confident that I checked this with the counsel's office
and I'm confident that they told me that there was no problem with the
president making phone calls." A White House official said there was no
indication that the counsel's office had reviewed a plan to have Clinton
make fund-raising calls.

White House special counsel Lanny J. Davis said that there "certainly was
an effort" to get Clinton to make calls and that such calls "may well have

(Mon Sep 22 1997 08:21)
US bonds
...this should 'cool' the bond rally....or was it the 'real' reason for last weeks bond rally... ( to pay out lower interest rates for this weeks auction ) ?
U.S. Bonds Rise Before Treasury Note Auctions

U.S. bonds rose, amid expectations that the outlook for steady Federal Reserve interest rates will bolster demand at the
Treasury's auctions of $27 billion of two- and five-year notes this week. The benchmark 30-year Treasury bond gained about
3/8, or $$3.75 per $1,000 bond, pushing its yield down 3 basis points, to 6.35 percent, the lowest since July 31.

(Mon Sep 22 1997 08:28)
"Money is coined liberty"
On the Side of Golden Angels provides historical precedent the House Of Rothschild might just be buying gold hand over fist!

(Mon Sep 22 1997 08:29)
Inflation(Money Supply)
...whilst they tinker with 'PPI' & 'CPI' with supply keeps on growin out of 'band'...
'In our view,'' says Edward S. Hyman Jr. of International Strategy &
Investment Group, ''excessive money growth is now a significant problem
for the Fed. It directly explains the inflation in stock prices and home prices
that has unfolded this year.'' He thinks the money-supply numbers heighten
chances of a Fed rate hike before yearend

(Mon Sep 22 1997 08:31)
Money Supply
CHART: Money Growth Is on a Tear

(Mon Sep 22 1997 08:38)
Earnings (The trend has changed)
No one expects overall earnings growth to stall out. Indeed, lower interest
rates and a weaker dollar could improve many companies' prospects. But
for now, the warning signs about profit growth are all too clear. ''We're in a
position where stocks are going up, even as earnings estimates are going
down,'' says Prudential's Brown. Sooner or later, that seems certain to spell
''The list is getting pretty long,'' worries Benjamin L. Zacks, executive
vice-president of Zacks Investment Research, which tracks earnings
estimates issued by some 2,500 analysts. The firm has already trimmed its
estimate of third-quarter earnings growth for the Standard & Poor's
500-stock index from 12.5% to 11.5% and expects the estimate to drop
further. ''When it's finally reported, we'll have a quarter that did not meet
expectations,'' says Zacks.

Lurker 99.99
(Mon Sep 22 1997 08:40)
Is it possible
There is a nasty rumor going around that the following handles belong to same human being. BBW, Big Bad Wolf, Hepcat, and Oldman. I truly wish these rumors would stop.

(Mon Sep 22 1997 08:42)
...further to last weeks free's a reminder for this week trading....Business Week has a review.... ( they must have tuned in to Kitco )

(Mon Sep 22 1997 08:44)
DJ, Earl, Speed -- Somebody likes them. More buying than selling. Large blocks of 10K shares. Remember, this stock is not optionable. So the triple witching....

(Mon Sep 22 1997 08:47)
S+P futures up 4.70....Dec. gold up .30.....EB: Swept @ home...tsk..tsk..

(Mon Sep 22 1997 08:47)
Earnings slowdown
...for those that like to see 'pictures'...
Graph of Earnings for S&P 500....

(Mon Sep 22 1997 08:47)
S+P futures up 4.70....Dec. gold up .30.....EB: Swept @ home...tsk..tsk..

(Mon Sep 22 1997 08:49)
I hate it when I do that!

(Mon Sep 22 1997 08:58)
Productivity Gains a Myth? sounds like the new paradigm 'productivity gains' were caused by lower interest expense costs...there's a direct correlation between reduced interest expenses and bottom line gains.....
Laufenberg notes that the most significant shift in business costs in recent
years appears to be in interest expenses rather than labor costs. While
corporate profits before taxes rose from less than 8% of national income in
early 1990 to about 11% at last count, labor compensation costs have
declined by only 1.2% of national income in the same period. But net
interest expenses have fallen three percentage points ( from nearly 10% to a
bit under 7% ) --just about as much as profits have grown.

Lurker 99.99
(Mon Sep 22 1997 09:00)
This cannot be correct. Can it?
The latest bit of nasty gossip is that the following handles are also bogus Tortfeasor, Ted, EB, and Strad Master. This has simply got to stop.

(Mon Sep 22 1997 09:01)
Computers: Millennium bomb experts warn
over 'quick fix' hopes


By Alan Cane

Computer specialists tackling the "millennium bomb", which threatens to create
social and commercial chaos in early 2000, are becoming angered and
disheartened by reports of easy solutions to the problem.

They say assumptions that a "quick fix" is possible are creating a false sense of
security among companies and individuals who should be assessing their
vulnerability and beginning remedial work.

Mr Karl Feilder, chief executive of the consultancy Greenwich Mean Time
and an acknowledged expert on the problem, said: "The danger is that these
little spurts of false optimism perpetuate a very attractive myth that someone,
somewhere, will fix the world's 2000 problem.

"While people wait for a miracle they are losing valuable time. There are only
595 business days left before 2000 hits us. If you are running a large personal
computer network, your Year 2000 project should already be well under

The millennium bomb is a consequence of software techniques common in the
1970s and 1980s where programmers saved expensive computer memory by
recording years as two digits rather than four; that is, as 97 instead of 1997.
When 2000 arrives, most systems will be unable to distinguish between the
20th and 21st centuries - with potentially disastrous results.

Power supplies may be disrupted, road, rail and air transport could be hit,
hospitals will admit emergencies only, and schools will be forced to close in
the first weeks of 2000, according to experts.

Last week Nicholas Johnson, a 14-year-old from Christchurch, New
Zealand, was widely credited with having developed a cure for the problem in
personal computers. Mr Feilder has investigated his claim and concludes that
his solution, if it works, will be useful for only about 1 per cent of the systems
at risk.

The bomb will affect large data processing systems, personal computers and
PC networks as well as tiny control processors built into industrial machinery.

Research by Greenwich Mean Time suggests that most PCs bought before
1997, and 47 per cent bought after that date, will have problems. Of 4,000
software packages tested, 64 per cent had date-dependent features that could
cause them to operate erratically.

Banks must act immediately to address the "millennium bomb" or risk
damaging international payments systems and even the global economy,
William McDonough, president of the New York Federal Reserve Bank,
warned yesterday, writes John Ridding in Hong Kong.

Speaking to the Institute of International Finance, Mr McDonough said he
was concerned that many banks had yet to focus on the issue and were
placing responsibility on outside vendors to solve the problem for them.

"We found that even if a vendor has made appropriate modifications and
tested a product, there can be no guarantee it will work properly in a bank's
unique operating environment", he said.

Banks were accepting vendors' general assurances at face value, he added.
"This puts a bank at significant risk."

Another area of concern was the lack of programmers. "There is a limited
pool of skilled technical staff to make needed changes, and demands on this
pool are growing as the time draws closer", the reserve bank president said.

 Copyright the Financial Times Limited 1997
"FT" and "Financial Times" are trademarks of The Financial Times Limited.

(Mon Sep 22 1997 09:03)
Money Supply on a Tear: M2 & M3 surge sharply 10.2% & 12.6% annual rate. Greenspan warns Inflation is monetary phenomenon. VERY RELEVANT to Gold is Guest Guru Milhouse analysis:

(Mon Sep 22 1997 09:04)
Barron's gold comments:

Monday, September 22, 1997

A Golden Opportunity?

Some see returns from ho-hum precious metal

By Michael Santoli

Key Commodity Indexes

Since its dramatic collapse halted in early July, the gold price not only has
refused to rebound but hasn't even done traders the courtesy of tumbling
further -- thus denying profits both to steadfast bulls and bears. For nearly
three months, gold has tread and retread the same scarred terrain between
$320 and $330 an ounce, with each advance by short-covering traders
turned back as soon as producers streamed from their foxholes to sell the
metal forward.

Last week, for instance, gold gave back the gains it had racked up in the
previous week, when a fitful stock market lent gold players hope for an influx
of nervous equity money. Last week, it was the reliable rumors of more
central-bank selling -- along with hefty stock-market advances -- that
knocked the metal from the mid-$320s back toward the $320 mark.

The gold market, however, still offers methods to squeeze out a bit of return,
though most of these won't bring the home-run returns of a winning directional
bet. Notes Jeffrey Christian of CPM Group in New York: "You can make a
lot of money on the status quo."

Chris Park, a gold trader with Strategic Commodity Trading in Orlando, Fla.,
chooses to see the lack of volatility in gold as a half-full glass. The metal's
sleepiness, he points out, has made options on gold futures temptingly cheap.
Late last week, when the December futures were at $322.90, he observed
that the December put contract on 100 ounces with a strike price of 320
could be bought for $440, while the 310 put could be sold for $180. At a net
cost of $260, the trade is an inexpensive wager that gold will dip below $320
but not lower than $310. And with a potential payoff of perhaps $1,000, the
strategy has an attractive four-to-one ratio of reward to risk.

Looking out a bit farther, Park says, call options on February gold are "dirt
cheap," reflecting the deflated sentiment in the gold market. So dropping
some small change on February 360 calls could be "a great way to play a
stock-market correction" sometime in the next five months. That assumes, of
course, that a fair portion of this equity-mad generation of investors will
uphold gold's customary role as a safe haven in a crisis.

Christian sees institutional traders opting again to sell "straddles" in this
low-turmoil environment. Such a trade involves selling a call and a put with
matching strike prices, which boils down to a focused bet on low volatility.
And for gold producers who might be unwilling to sell forward now at what
appear to them depressed prices, insurance can be bought cheaply. In what
Christian calls min/max trades, a deal can be structured to lock in a price of,
say $320, while giving up only $5 of potential upside, a low cost that results
from the quiescent market.

For still another way to trade gold that doesn't rely on a big move in its price,
Prudential Securities' Don Selkin last week was telling clients to keep an eye
on the gold/silver ratio. With gold's sluggishness and a rebound in silver prices
tied to strong economic growth ( silver has a number of industrial uses ) , the
ratio has narrowed from 76:1 in mid-July to about 68:1, based on the
December contracts. The December gold/silver ratio has been as low only a
few times this decade, but Selkin believes it can drop as far as 66. His advice
is to watch for the ratio to widen to above 70, then buy December silver and
sell gold to play the narrowing he expects.

CPM Group has created the CPM Institute to establish a program of grants
in support of research into commodity markets. The funds will be made
available to college professors and graduate students and will be dispersed
with a leaning toward research in precious metals, the specialty of CPM

Remember the pitch that commodity-related investments are a good
diversification tool for stock and bond portfolios? The Van Eck Global Hard
Assets fund, which invests in both commodities and commodity-based
stocks, provided some backup for that notion in August. While the Standard
& Poor's 500 Index slumped 5.7% for its second-worst month of the
'Nineties, Van Eck Global rose 3.1% in August. This year through August the
fund was up 18.3% versus 22.9% for the S&P.

Key Commodity Indexes

CRB Group Indexes
Yr. Ago
CRB Futures
Precious Metals
Barrons ~ Bridge

Return to top of page
Copyright  1997 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

(Mon Sep 22 1997 09:04)
Currencies (the battle is on)
Japan keen on higher yen status
Japan is keen to boost the yen's global role via aggressive financial
deregulation to make sure it ranks with the euro and the US dollar, according
to senior government officials. However, they suggested that Tokyo has much
less fear than Washington that the planned single European currency may
achieve a high profile in a world financial system dominated by the US

Vee Gates
(Mon Sep 22 1997 09:05)
@Donald & IBM & Copper
Donald - If IBM can make copper work on integrated circuits, then you can be sure that silver, being in the same chemical family as copper, will be next, as the *best* room temperature conductor of electicity. Forget the film industry driving silver prices, imagine 500 million chips a year each containing 0.001 gram of silver. Still ain't much silver, is it? ( grin ) .

(Mon Sep 22 1997 09:09)
Comex: Gold up .10; silver down 3 cents: and PL up 3.80....S+P futures up 4.20

(Mon Sep 22 1997 09:15)
Good morning TED. Nice, sunny and cool day here.

(Mon Sep 22 1997 09:19)
IMF(G7 Meetings)'s an excellent review of comments
Last Updated: 4:55cet 22/9/97

G7, and IMF: Main points from weekend events

HONG KONG ( AFX ) - Main developments at the meeting of G7 finance ministers and central
bank governors Saturday. and other news generated by the World Bank/IMF annual meetings:

- G7 ministers issued a brief statement after their meeting stressing the importance of avoiding
"excessive depreciation" in currencies "where this could lead to the re-emergence of large external

- Ministers said they "agreed that exchange rates should reflect economic fundamentals and that
excess volatility and significant deviations from fundamentals were undesirable."

- They also agreed "to monitor developments in exchange markets and to cooperate as

- At briefings after the meeting, G7 finance ministers said they discussed the need for Japan to boost
domestic demand and cut its trade surplus.

- U.S. Secretary of State Robert Rubin said Japan shared its partners' concerns over its weak
domestic demand growth and that he discussed "various policy options" with Japanese Finance
Minister Hiroshi Mitsuzuka.He said Mitsuzuka "was focussed on what he viewed as the weakness
in the currency."

- Mitsuzuka said G7 members "understood" Japan's efforts to restructure the economy, but Japan's
vice finance minister Eisuke Sakakibara said differences with the U.S. over the trade gap were not
resolved."Basically, we insisted on our stance, by explaining our reform policy while the United
States repeated their request," Sakakibara said.

- Earlier Saturday, after a bilateral meeting between Rubin and Mitsuzuka, a U.S. official said:
"Minister Mitsuzuka stated that the Japanese government will take appropriate measures consistent
with the fiscal, structural reform."

- Mitsuzuka was quoted by one of his aides as having assured Rubin that "in line with our fiscal
reforms, we are now ready to take appropriate measures to stimulate the economy," with the
property sector a main focus.

- German Finance Minister Theo Waigel said it is not sensible to attempt to stimulate the Japanese
economy through fiscal policy.

- The G7 discussed the need to minimize the "contagion" from the Thai and southeast Asian
currency crisis, Rubin said. - The meeting expressed general satisfaction with Thailand's progress in
meeting its criteria under the IMF assistance package, but called for continued vigorous measures to
achieve the program's objectives.

- Mitsuzuka said Japan will continue to support the idea of a fund among Asian countries aimed at
preventing another currency crisis in the region.

- A Japanese government source said Japan is trying to enlist the assistance of China and South
Korea in the proposed fund.

- Bank of France governor Jean-Claude Trichet said G7 members have expressed "very great
reservations" about the Japanese iniatative.

- Rubin said the U.S. has concerns over the proposal, also being discussed separately by southeast
Asian countries, as such a fund would only exacerbate the "moral hazard" of dealing with speculative

- The IMF Interim Committee backed an amendment to its articles enabling it to establish "a
multilateral and nondiscriminatory system to promote the liberalisation of capital movements."

- The IMF board agreed to an overall 45 pct increase in quotas, equivalent to 65 bln SDRs,
bringing total quota allocations to 209.5 bln SDRs.

- The IMF board also agreed a special allocation of 21.4 bln SDRs.

(Mon Sep 22 1997 09:27)
Mornin Panda...My favorite time of the year with cool+crisp weather...

(Mon Sep 22 1997 09:54)
@OY Careful
When CNBC guests like Erdman, Metz from Oppenheimer and another talk about the trillions of dollars in drivative markets that could be the trigger of a crash scenario, and they all sort of agreed that the most undervalued market today is the hard assets, like "GOLD", and this at a major bottom in my opinion, I tend to get a little concerned.

Quality underpreced situations are not usually touted publicly at bottoms!

Eager Student
(Mon Sep 22 1997 10:05)
*emerging from the shadows*
*stepping uncertainly up to the microphone*


*speaking too loud, causing a feedback, then backing off the mic*

I'm sorry. I usually sit quietly in the back of the room and learn from you all, but I believe I have something I can contribute today.

I have seen other chat rooms where the speaker's IP is posted next to his/her handle for every post. This allows everyone to easily identify speakers who have multiple handles. In fact, if total anonymity is required it would still be possible to use this technique by creating unique identifiers for each IP ( e.g. add one to each digit in the IP wrapping nine to zero ) . Sure, the last few digits would change constantly as different ISP lines are used but it would still be a simple matter to identify people posting under multiple handles.

*Turning to speak directly up toward the control booth window*

Perhaps Bart, this is something you will consider.

*Looking sheepishly around the room, then stepping back and fading quietly into the shadows*

(Mon Sep 22 1997 10:12)
REIFY: There is no time in any market that there are not different views of a market. If there were, there would only be buyers or sellers. It is the percentage of bears or bulls which make the difference in market tops or bottoms.

(Mon Sep 22 1997 10:31)
Vee Gates: 500 X 10 ( 6 ) X 10 ( -3 ) = 500,000 grams - silver. Not a whole lot of silver going into chip production. ...... did I overlook something? ..... N.B.: ( ? ) are powers of ten.

(Mon Sep 22 1997 10:35)
Authority Attack number 1
One of our purposes is to drive all the authoritive sincere posters from this forum. One method we will use is to confuse the sincere posters about the identity of sincere posters who have established an authoritive presence here. For example if a sincere poster has a handle of DA, we will introduce a disinformation handle of DJ.

(Mon Sep 22 1997 10:36)
The Inger Letter Forecast - September 22, 1997
Due to lack of momentum recent market action is characterized as having a CANINE AROMA, leaving open possibility next couple weeks the market may try going to the dogs:

(Mon Sep 22 1997 10:37)
Living Standards changes
...whilst Rubin & friends get rich.......
% change in real gross domestic product
per person, 1989-96
Norway 22.3
Netherlands 13.5
Japan 13.5
Denmark 12.3
Austria 10.6
Belgium 9.4
Germany 9.2
Italy 9.0
France 6.4
United States 6.2
Britain 5.9
Sweden 0.0
Canada -0.4
Source: Centre for the Study of Living Standards

(Mon Sep 22 1997 10:39)
Panda: Are you implying ( via the chart ) that we have a short term triple bottom and now its on to the moon? ....: ) ... Actually it does look like a short term move is in progress. The MACD has been trending nicely upward. Who knows, maybe the CEO and the hedge committee died over the weekend and the announcement has yet to be made. Eh? ..... : )

2, AKA several other names
(Mon Sep 22 1997 10:42)
@Eager Student
Well said, oh humble one. It has been discussed. I personally prefer being allowed a relative degree of anonymity, as long as that is feasible. Also, there may be individuals who occasionally join us who would not be free to post ( due to their official role, e.g. ) if their IPs were shown. For example, it is a well-known secret that "Senator Blutarsky" is really Ted Kennedy.

Excellent posts this AM: G7 report, Barron's article, Y2K. My thanks to all who make this a continuing oasis of civility, useful information, and fun.

My name is Bob, and I am a Kitcoholic.

(Mon Sep 22 1997 10:44)
in sacramento
All: In watching over the past few months, it seems to me that a very large percentage of days begin with a steep one to two dollar drop in the first 15 minutes or so of trading, followed by a quick rebound an hour or two later. Do the more seasoned hands here think it would it be completely foolhardy for an off-floor rookie to attempt to take advantage of this observation?

Eager Student: I like it!

(Mon Sep 22 1997 10:50)
Nomercy - you've been scooping the news boys again, haven't you. What I found interesting in the M3 chart was its measure '% change from previous year'. This of course means that the money supply has been compounding in growth not just additive. Also M2 & M3 increases are really severe wouldn't you say? Looks like we are having a market meltdown as measured by comparing stock valuations verses total available liquidity. Of course the Fed, in issuing these deposits is transfering risk to banks from markets, eh? Last time I saw M1, M2 & M3 numbers here they were about 20% lower than these numbers. That was only a week or two ago wasn't it?

ALL - If it is true that the Fed is pumping money into the economy ( markets ) at what point does this become unsustainable and what will the result be? Are we having another subtle situation such as Malasia's ( not so subtle gov market bail out ) were the stock market is being supported by the government until the goverment's big money friends are out? Then the hammer comes down on the little people who bought last. Looks like big, rational money is divesting stocks while small, emotional money is buying. Bonds now seem the choice for the big boys. What would the result be of the about monetary blowout on bonds. Then where would they flee?

Mike Sheller - Just heard that the Taurus was the #1 selling sedan in the US @ 400,000 units. Metaphysical connection no doubt? ;- )

Vee Gates
(Mon Sep 22 1997 10:55)
Earl - It was a joke. Anything to help the poor silver market. Go ( cough ) SSC! I and LGB are going to be rich. Buy more chips.

(Mon Sep 22 1997 10:59)
in sacramento
God, this El Nio's a FREAK! Marlin caught in Seattle: Think I'll double check my flood coverage.

(Mon Sep 22 1997 11:01)
Lurker 99.99/Disinfo: That crap really serves no useful purpose. Please carry it to another site where it can be appreciated.

(Mon Sep 22 1997 11:01)
THE Hong Kong ORACLE Speaks On Money Supply Growth
With Churchillian clarity & logic Guest Guru Milhouse analyzes Alan Greenspans "secret weapon to ensure economy doesnt dive. M-3 accelerated growth is keystone to higher GOLD prices:

(Mon Sep 22 1997 11:08)
Disinformation handle attack defense 1
When one of our disinformation handles is attacked have him post some useful true information, the longer the better. This comes from the wire feed we could not live without. For example if the handle Ted is attacked have him post a lengthy Barrons article.

(Mon Sep 22 1997 11:10)
Earl -- ( @10:39 ) I have to hang my hat on something! One thing is for sure, going to the moon is a little bit stronger than I hope for. :- ) ) A $2 to $4 move would be nice though. :- )

Dow is up nice and strong. Now what I want to know, is who is draging the HUI index up? Don't they know it's supposed to go DOWN? But, of course all of my index options in the HUI have been laid to rest, so...

(Mon Sep 22 1997 11:13)
This paper market is truly amazing. I can't remember a time when so many were willing to pay so much for so little; kind of reflects the fact that irrespective of what we are told we are awash in green paper and its only a matter of time until this green sludge runs over the fiscal bank and onto the inflation fields. I am kind of surprised that the metals refuse to budge although the reasoning on this forum would explain that. I guess one should never overestimate the intelligence of the average investor.

(Mon Sep 22 1997 11:14)
Oldman: IF and when you are lurking, please update email address. Just had one returned. Thanks.

(Mon Sep 22 1997 11:21)
IMF(Europe & US next target)
The International Monetary Fund has warned that
Europe's lesser currencies could be the next target of
speculative attack by the world's shadowy $US1 trillion
hedge funds in the lead-up to the introduction of a single
currency in 1999.

In a major report on global capital markets released in
Hong Kong yesterday, the IMF also said the United
States equity market was "optimistically priced" and
could sustain a moderate correction without affecting its
domestic economy.

(Mon Sep 22 1997 11:24)
HUI on a comparative tear today, up .84 points. Shocking! Just shocking to discover gambling going here! ( Off to the side a waiter appears and utters the words... ) Mr. panda, here are your winnings sir. As I slowly turned and looked at Bogi...

(Mon Sep 22 1997 11:32)
Monday September 22 10:53 AM EDT

Fed sets $2.5 billion in overnight system repos

NEW YORK, Sept 22 ( Reuter ) - The Federal Reserve said Monday's overnight system repurchase agreements totaled $2.5 billion.

Who Cares
(Mon Sep 22 1997 11:35)
Net Fall in Federal Deficit

According to the Treasury Department, the Federal Deficit for
this year has now fallen a net of $50B in the past 16 days,
$20B of that on 9/18/97.

Goooo-lllleeeeyyy, Sargeant Carter! Now. Can we BELIEVE this?

Who Cares
(Mon Sep 22 1997 11:46)
Somebody Humor Me

Would it be possible to simply convert the Federal Deficit into
an M-2 or M-3 form?

What sort of percentage difference would $50B make in M-3? Around
1%? Sorry, I don't have current numbers or time today.

(Mon Sep 22 1997 11:48)
LBMA EXPOS: PART 3 (September 22, 1997) A Collective-Mind Analysis Compiled by Red Baron
London Bullion Marketing Association is best described as a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma. Daily gold trading NEARLY TWICE South Africas annual production:

(Mon Sep 22 1997 12:12)
Good Mornin' all
How did I get pulled into this crap. Lurker 99.99 and DISinfo.

GET A LIFE!!! spread rumors and lies

if'n you got a problem you can speak DIRECTLY with me and do not disturb an otherwise pleasant and INFORMATIVE sight Bring it ON!

(Mon Sep 22 1997 12:16)
US Foreign investment the market downturn ( crash, bear ) begins will foreigners pull out to invest in 'their' economies, where devaluations occurred.
...interesting article dealing with flow of foreign funds to US in 1996...
Overall, thanks to favourable economic conditions in the US, an
all-time high of US$78.8 billion was invested in the country last year,
swelling the stock of foreign investments by 12 per cent to US$630

Asia as a whole, led by Japan, raised its cumulative investments in the
US from US$122.98 billion in 1995 to US$134.26 billion. The
figures are based on historical cost -- the book value.

(Mon Sep 22 1997 12:32)
...interesting that Soros says that Hongkong $ is not in danger...regarless that it is overvalued.....that's because Hongkong reserves are over $81 billions dollars...
...Anybody what are Brazil's reserves?
THERE are lots of foreign currency reserves to back up the
Hongkong dollar and as such, its peg to the US dollar is not in
any danger of being dislodged by currency traders, said
financier George Soros.

And Hongkong, being a financial centre,
would feel less the effects of an
overvalued currency, unlike the other
South-east Asian countries whose
economies are export-driven and which
thrive on a competitive currency.

The importance of stability in the financial
system will also outweigh any negative
effects of an overvalued Hongkong
dollar, he added.

(Mon Sep 22 1997 12:38)
A good Fight
One of our objectives is to drive sincere posters from this forum. There is nothing like an obnoxious fight to do this. Fight about race, religion social class and and other deeply held beliefs. Of course we can always have two disinformation handles fight with each other but any time you can pick a fight with a sincere poster it is better. For example Oldman is very good at this. Of course so were Hepcat and the Big Bad Wolf.

(Mon Sep 22 1997 12:46)
RON: ( re your 10:44 ) What you've noticed is the "feint" or fakeout. I used to "fade" that fakeout using a fibonnacci number of 61.8retracement; ie if they reversed 62 FTER the first hour you could "fairly reliably" grab a small amount of ticks. The PROBLEM is, when it goes against this principle ( fast ) it can kill you. The other problems are for out-of-the-pit traders to get their orders executed fast enough, and to insert tight enough stop-loss orders.

(Mon Sep 22 1997 12:48)
6-pak: As I recall the Byzantine empire survived the fall of Rome, partially because they kept the gold standard, and were thus able to maintain foreign trade. Perhaps London has competition.
Would the Turkish government confiscate the gold of the Turkish people? Certainly no self-respecting government would do that, especially since gold has no value anymore!

Looks like the gremlins and the "disinformation" posters are back. Not even a full moon! Is there a correlation between significant news being uncovered, and this activity? Got to run -- daytime job calling.

Who Cares
(Mon Sep 22 1997 12:52)
Federal Deficit & M-2, M-3

Well, no answer, but my memory says that it should be possible for
the Federal Reserve to purchase government bonds directly, and
make electronic deposits into the banking system. That would
explain the concurrent rise in M-2 and fall in Deficit.

Alternately, the banks could be getting out of bonds in a big way,
to reduce their capital exposure, and the Fed is dumping electronic
deposits in place of bonds.

(Mon Sep 22 1997 12:53)
I wonder what will be the effect on financial markets when the citizens of the United States and the European Countries begin paying their United Nations withholding tax in the year 2000? At least this is what the United Nations has stated as to what will happen.

Lurker 99.99
(Mon Sep 22 1997 12:53)
This one cannot be true
This rumor says Hepcat is the Oldman. But since we banned Hepcat, this obviously cannot be true. Or can it?

Mike Sheller
(Mon Sep 22 1997 12:55)
Is Dis Information bettern' Dat Information?
The paranoia reached me long ago. My parents were very much ahead of their time, giving me a screen name before there were even video monitors. It was quite unsettling growing up in the Bronx in the 50's with a name like obproj@. Now that I'm almost a grownup, and on the net, I have taken the screen name Mike Sheller. I think it came to me in a dream one afternoon in math class.

(Mon Sep 22 1997 12:57)
What is dec gold's 50 day average?

(Mon Sep 22 1997 12:57)
Allen the news boys are a team.......working constructively & instinctively together...
As far as money supply growth ( inflation ) Milhouse has an excellent article on & the impact...

(Mon Sep 22 1997 12:57)
Indeed the Holy Roman Empire did stay on the gold standard for 800 years using its Bezant as the standard gold coin.

(Mon Sep 22 1997 13:04)
NOMERCY, ALL: Yesterday I posted something to the effect that Thailand had a secret account ala Nick Leeson at Barings. Today, on the Erdman interview on CNBC more details were provided. For those who missed it: Thailand was thought by the IMF to have $32 billion US in reserves based upon the IMF audit. What has recently been learned that the $32 billion was used for currency speculation and $20 billion had been lost in losing trades. So, in effect, IMF funds are being used to bail them out of pure gambling losses. Now the good part...Malaysia appears to have been doing the same thing! How many other countries are doing it? Is that any different than what they are doing with the gold reserves all over the world? Still, stocks go up and nothing happens. I don't get it. What am I missing?

(Mon Sep 22 1997 13:07)
in sacramento
Savage: Thank you. Re your 50-day average question, my data stop 6/30/97. Do you have a source from that date to present?

(Mon Sep 22 1997 13:24)
.............Crazy Markets...........AND people...........
Ya' think G7 had anything to do with this?? Or was it all the DIS/DAT info. being slung around here. It might have been... we all know that the WHOLE #%!!#&$?!@#!! WORLD is glued to KITCO watching and waiting ( w/w ) for the next bit of juicy DISinfo. Hmmmmmmmmmmm... what will the Kitco-crew do next. The world WILL follow...oh yes, the WORLD WILL are getting sleepy...very sleepy... check on the wonderful buying Opps. in the currency markets...oh my!


John W
(Mon Sep 22 1997 13:24)
To Savage
Hey, Savage. I didn't know there was someone here from Fort Wayne. Send me an email.

(Mon Sep 22 1997 13:27)
Donald: No wonder PM Mahathir is looking for a scapegoat. Their CB got caught on the wrong side of Soros in the famous sterling flop. In fact for years the Maylasia CB was basically a currency trading operation just as the Brasilian CB is for gold. I'll bet the PM is fighting for his political life.

(Mon Sep 22 1997 13:28)
Quit baitin' me ;- ) you DISinfo Dude...

And that sweep hurt, OUCH!


(Mon Sep 22 1997 13:32)
...this story which I saved appeare on Aug. 27 Singapore Business Times dealing with Thailand's problems which concur with your recent story...
..we should not be 'surprised' that everything today is 'normal'.... the spin/witch doctors are working overtime to keep things 'normal'...

27 Aug 1997

Tight margins mean more baht
days ahead?

Latest data suggest that Thailand will need more funds to
refinance debts

By Larry Wee


IT WAS another volatile week for regional markets, with some
Asean currencies and bourses taking it on the chin again. The
Indonesian rupiah hit a record low against the greenback of 3,030
before recovering over 10 per cent on 100 per cent overnight
interest rates. The baht was once again pummelled, recording a
new 34.10 low against the US dollar. Selling was led by onshore
hedging of foreign currency exposure. Officials warned of a
weaker baht to come.

And as currency weaknesses were met by higher interest rates in
the region, those worst hit also saw their stockmarkets tumble.
Our stats show new lows in the benchmark indices of the
Indonesian, Malaysian and Manila bourses. And the week has not
been easier for regional stocks. The same three bourses again hit
yet another low for the year yesterday.

A falling dollar in Europe, however, did provide a relief of sorts for
Asean currencies. As the deutschemark broke below 1.80
yesterday, all of the five Asean currencies except the baht tracked
by our weekly "thermometer" recovered somewhat from a week

For some though, this recovery
came at a high cost. The rupiah by
yesterday had corrected 10 per
cent of its losses compared to Aug
19. But this was only made
possible by clearly unsustainable
rate hikes which have sharply
inverted the rupiah yield curve
( three months' offshore cost of
borrowing up 34 per cent ) -- and
sent Indonesian interest rates north
across the whole curve ( see yield
curve charts ) . Last week, we
described regional currency
pressures in terms of three waves
of selling. The final, possibly
overlapping, stage III would be
signalled by professional players --
rich with accumulated profits from
buying in stage I and then taking at
least part of their profits in stage II
-- coming back for another round
of selling. We said then that stage
III could start just as stage I did --
with the baht.

So we need to take a closer look
at numbers released last week in
conjunction with the
IMF-sponsored rescue package
for Thailand ( see table ) .

Not all was revealed. Indeed, we still await more details. ( JP
Morgan's latest newsletter reports that, based on end-1996
statistics, 86 per cent of the loans made by BIS-reporting banks to
Thailand ( US$99 billion ) ended up in the financial sector ) .

From what numbers we do know now, there's little margin for
error over the next 12 months. Our table illustrates the point.
Firstly, it was revealed that of the US$30 billion in foreign
exchange reserves left at the end of July, US$23.4 billion ( S$35.1
billion ) has been committed in forward sales over the next year --
leaving only US$6.6 billion. Items 3 and 4, courtesy of the IMF,
bump the reserves up to US$24.3 billion.

But Thai authorities have also revealed items 5 and 7: an estimate
( probably conservative ) that another US$1.5 billion will be needed
to salvage the finance sector, as well as a current account deficit of
up to US$10 billion over the next 12 months. This can be
somewhat offset by the Bank of Thailand's belief that the domestic
portion of item 2 -- US$8.6 billion -- can be rolled over, while the
fate of the remaining US$14.8 billion is less certain.

So we've put US$10 billion back in the kitty ( item 6 ) . The Thais
are left with US$22.8 billion -- or close to the US$23 billion
they've promised the IMF they'll maintain going into 1998, with
US$25 billion the year after.

Just about right. Until we now raise the question of refinancing
US$40 billion in short-term debt ( principal plus interest ) due for
repayment also within the next 12 months. IMF funds categorically
cannot be used, but the Japanese banks to whom ( by one
estimate ) more than half of this is owed will help out by extending
their lendings.

And most will, with the help of the Japanese authorities. But that
still leaves a hole of some US$10 billion to US$15 billion. In the
worst case, if other lenders don't extend, we are talking debt
rescheduling or default. And we haven't even ventured to talk
about mounting political tensions.

IMF put up a US$27 billion package for Mexico, but big brother
USA also pledged US$20 billion. Who will be Thailand's big
brother? Until you know, tread carefully.

 Copyright Singapore Press Holdings Ltd, 1997. All rights reserved.

Gusto Oro
(Mon Sep 22 1997 13:41)
Rhino in the pits! LOOK OUT!

(Mon Sep 22 1997 13:48)
Malaysia (haze beyond 'hazardous' levels)
KUCHING: The Air Pollutant Index ( API ) for Sarawak
breached the 700 mark -- way beyond the hazardous level --
for the first time today as the state entered the fourth day of
haze emergency.

(Mon Sep 22 1997 13:51)
DONALD: re your13:04 ..momentum! equal to the product of its mass and its linear velocity//////RON: unfortunately not/////////JOHN W: ...and then there were five....

The Wichita Lineman
(Mon Sep 22 1997 13:58)
(how long can this go on ??)
I have read the Gold-mine, the Oracle of Alberta, Greenspan's speeches the message of inflation and high debt, high money creation ( M3 ) and the constant reminders by 6pak and nomercy of 'news to the contrary', my question is how can the other side keep up this game ! If the evidence for gold is so strong, then why is it still at 320 ?.

(Mon Sep 22 1997 14:07)
Some thoughts and info

Seems that the Asean problems are starting to 'effect a rise' in the London Base Metal Inventories, they have been increasing steadly over the past weeks. Zinc stocks after a long drawdown have been rising, but with zinc it could be the Chinese covering their large short positions.
Copper stocks have been rising for months are are now being compounded by Asean problems.
Seems a small but new use of copper is coming; IBM announced that a new chip desing using copper will increase computer speeds 40% and cut costs. front page. To bad they didn't use silver.

(Mon Sep 22 1997 14:07)
you'all notice how spot keeps jumping off 320?

(Mon Sep 22 1997 14:10)
( This has a bad odor )
ING Barings Audited for Backlog of Unsettled Trades

ING Groep NV said its ING Barings investment banking unit is being audited by the New York
Stock Exchange for amassing a backlog of unsettled stock trades caused by a surge in emerging-
market trading. The number of transactions is ``much less'' than the 2,000 reported in London's
Sunday Telegraph, ING spokesman Ruud Polet said, calling the report ``ridiculous.'' Polet said it
was a ``regular audit'' and there is no investigation by the U.S. Securities and Exchange
Commission or the NYSE. Cees Maas, chief financial officer of ING Group, added in an interview
in Hong Kong: ``It is preliminary and we are in the process of commenting on this'' to the New
York Stock Exchange.

(Mon Sep 22 1997 14:12)
Some thoughts and info

Seems that the Asean problems are starting to 'effect a
rise' in the London Base Metal Inventories, they have
been increasing steadly over the past weeks. Zinc stocks
after a long drawdown have been rising, but with zinc it
could be the Chinese covering their large short
Copper stocks have been rising for months are are now
being compounded by Asean problems.
Seems a small but new use of copper is coming; IBM
announced that a new chip design using copper will
increase proceesor speeds 40% and cut costs 30%. front page. To bad they didn't use:

(Mon Sep 22 1997 14:21)
Dragons and Tigers
Paper Tigers scorched by Dragons breath
Gold cannot be sold, only won.

(Mon Sep 22 1997 14:26)
The Wichita Lineman
..that's an excellent question. How long can the other side keep up this game.
..what are your thoughts?

(Mon Sep 22 1997 14:37)
Insider selling
Chrysler CEO Robert Eaton and 30 other executives have sold stock
worth more than $70 million this year, raising questions among experts
who track insider trades.

Investors could interpret the unusual burst of selling as a sign Chrysler
management has lost confidence in the giant automaker's shares, says
auto analyst Sheldon Sandler at Ladenburg Thalmann & Co.

"It looks like they are unloading the stock," Sandler says. "What's
troubling is it looks like a concerted effort."

(Mon Sep 22 1997 14:40)
Stock @ Closings
September 22, 1997
Closing stock market indices

LONDON ( Reuter ) - Here is how major stock markets outside the United States ended Monday.
LONDON - Britain's leading stock market index powered higher thanks to a steep jump in futures prices and an early take-off by the Dow industrials. The FTSE 100 closed at 5,075.7, up 51.9 points, or 1.03 percent.

PARIS - French shares rose, pushing the CAC-40 index closed at 3,017.45, up 40.27 points, or 1.35 percent, and the blue-chip CAC index to a close above 3,000 points, on the dollar's strength and bid fever fueled by four takeover offers launched in France in the past two weeks.

FRANKFURT - Germany's blue-chip DAX index ended bourse trade in Frankfurt strongly ahead, as the DAX matched gains registered in pre-bourse electronic trade on the IBIS DAX index. The DAX-30 index closed at 4,088.92, up 55.95 points, or 1.39 percent. In later screen-based trade the IBIS DAX index ended at 4,096.85, up 113.79 points, or 2.86 percent.

ZURICH - Swiss shares closed clearly higher, with the blue-chip Swiss Market Index ( SMI ) rising more than 1.5 percent. The Swiss market index closed at 5,705.1, up 94.1 points, or 1.68 percent.

TOKYO - Tokyo stocks ended with modest gains as buying from pension and public funds revived some bellwether issues. The 225-share Nikkei average closed at 18,201.32, up 143.11 points, or 0.79 percent.

HONG KONG - Hong Kong stocks closed sharply lower on lack of buying impetus but trading was thin and dominated by derivatives-linked activities. The Hang Seng index closed at 14,108.08, down 276.05 points, or 1.92 percent.

JOHANNESBURG - Heavyweight banking stocks fell, with financial group Nedcor weathering most of the pressure. The All-share index closed at 7,155.4, down 21.8 points, or 0.30 percent. The All-Gold index closed at 897.3, down 2.6 points, or 0.29 percent, while the Industrial index closed at 8,746.1, up 1.7 points, or 0.02 percent.

SYDNEY - The Australian share market rose to a record high as the banks extended last week's rally and battered BHP rebounded from early declines. The All Ordinaries index closed at 2,764.9, up 34.5 points, or 1.26 percent.

(Mon Sep 22 1997 14:47)
Rate Rise @ Bank of Canada
September 22, 1997
Canada-U.S. spreads sign of confidence -Thiessen

HONG KONG, Sept 22 ( Reuter ) - Bank of Canada governor Gordon Thiessen on Monday said negative Canada-U.S. bond spreads were yet another sign that financial markets had recognised Canada's improving economic performance.

The United States is also expected to raise interest rates in the medium term, suggesting that at least a convergence of Canada-U.S. rates was likely.

Speaking shortly after the Group of Seven finance ministers meeting last Saturday, Thiessen said he did not expect higher Canadian interest rates to have "a big impact""on economic growth rates, forecasts for which Finance Minister Paul Martin said he would revise in next February's budget.

Martin said he would indicate new growth targets in an October economic update, which would also outline new targets in budget deficits. Canada was already operating in the black under some accounting principles, Martin told Reuters.

(Mon Sep 22 1997 14:53)
Discussion of revision of Japanese deposit insurance laws.

(Mon Sep 22 1997 14:57)
JACK: China covers short positions in zinc.

Who Cares
(Mon Sep 22 1997 15:02)
Roman Empire / Money Supply Figures

Rome was on a *nominal* gold standard. They consistently
debased the coinage to keep the system running. If I remember
correctly, they did the debasement thing for close to 100 years.

Gad, why is NOBODY interesting in the money supply / deficit
figures? It looks to me like they started monetizing the deficit
in Feb, when M-2 flatlined; moderately at first, but in the past 60
days or so, big, big increases in M-2 and M-3, with matching
decreases in the Federal Deficit. And the trade deficit numbers
aren't right. Something is really wrong here.

Donald - what are you missing? The fact that everyone is BRAIN-
WASHED, that's what. Uncle Sam has kept the engine running
for SIXTY years. It's a deeply ingrained paradigm. It's going to
take a LOT to break it.

Man, oh, man. The money supply figures are messed up, Congress
is totally incomprehensible now, China is supposed to need a cash
infusion of $600B. Maybe they won't be able to keep it together
this time, after all.

(Mon Sep 22 1997 15:08)
NEW YORK ( Reuter ) - President Bill Clinton insisted on Monday that neither he nor Vice President Al Gore violated any
fund-raising laws but said he would cooperate with a Justice Department inquiry.

"I believe what I did and what the Vice President did was legal," Clinton told reporters.

The Justice Department said on Saturday that Attorney General Janet Reno had opened a formal inquiry into whether Clinton
illegally solicited contributions to the 1996 Clinton-Gore campaign in telephone calls from the White House. The inquiry could
lead to the naming of an independent counsel to investigate the case.

(Mon Sep 22 1997 15:11)
@ The Bug One More Time:
Y2K Fans: The 2000 bug will cost billions to fix, and time is running out.

Today's local newspaper had an article on the Y2K bug which I have not read ( and do not intend to read ) : ) .But for those interested see URL

(Mon Sep 22 1997 15:13)
Majority Rules
Our disinformation handles far outnumber sincere posters. Thus we should always attempt to have issues decided by a democratic majority. We will let the sincere posters win a few to make it look and feel good.

(Mon Sep 22 1997 15:16)
portable nuclear bombs(affirmation by 2nd person)
MOSCOW ( Reuter ) - President Boris Yeltsin's former environmental safety adviser said in remarks published on Monday that
some of Russia's portable nuclear bombs might indeed be missing, as asserted by another former Yeltsin aide.

"The statement by Alexander Lebed concerning suitcases with nuclear bombs is definitely not groundless," academician Alexei
Yablokov wrote in a letter to Novaya Gazeta weekly.

(Mon Sep 22 1997 15:25)
Gold conductivity
Just to clear things up, gold has a higher conductivity than copper or silver....IBM researches golden chips...hahahahahahah

(Mon Sep 22 1997 15:37)
Donald, re: bailouts by IMF. Isn't it rational behavior to speculate with funds, given that someone else will cover your losses and you get to keep your winnings?

Vee Gates
(Mon Sep 22 1997 15:37)
Kiwi - wrong. Gold does not have a higher electrical conductivity than silver. Silver is the *best* room temperature conductor of electricity. FYI, diamond is the *best* conductor of heat.

(Mon Sep 22 1997 15:39)
How much longer ...

There is alot at stake here. If influential people do nothing then the market will behave as a market should behave. It's obvious to me that we have gross manipulation occuring. How much longer can it go on? First they have got to have an environment of trust. They have that now. Monetary tools will work as long as everyone feels good about the situation. The question of a "trigger" is what will destroy the secure feeling that people have about the US and its $$. We have already seen that numbers by themselves do not matter because this is an irrational market. There are four things that may disrupt: internal political chaos, financial scandal, war and/or natural disasters ( my order of likelihood ) . Right now we have multiple investigations focused on the top level of the Executive branch, which I believe at least one will prove out to be true and a great disruption to this presidency. There are a number of financial scandals which could parcipitate a crisis, one of which is the explosion of the money supply. Another might be a sucking vortex of defaulting debt in Asean countries. A middle-east war is very possible, with a Korean conflict a distant possibility. Then there is El Nino. Lastly we have a mid-term issue with the information system infrastructure called Year 2000, which one might tongue-in-cheek call a 'natural' distaster.

Until one or more of these breakes through to the bull-headness of today's manic market we will not have a downturn ( IMNSHO ) .

Lurker 99.99
(Mon Sep 22 1997 15:40)
Re: EB, e-mail address
EB: Congratulations EB/Ted/Tortfeasor/Strad Master so you have an e-mail address. Can it be accessed from the same computer as Oldmans? Do all your other handles have e-mail addresses? I know you guys have lots of bucks you should be able to afford it.

The Wichita Lineman
(Mon Sep 22 1997 15:44)
somebody's gotta blink pretty soon !
nomercy, my thoughts, and this is a terible analogy, but at a great party, nobody wants to leave or go home and admit it was fun, but it's over. What kills it ?, somebody pukes ? the cops are called ?, nah, Guys get tired of looking at each other and get on each other's nerves, say things they should'nt and do things they should'nt. Eventually they realize they have been acting like idiots long enough and just want to go home. Paying 25x or 30x earnings is not a signifigant difference. I can get 3x earnings by opening up a pizza shop at my plaza. The big stocks have become an illusion, really unmeasurable by any sane level of returns. What is it going to take to kill the party ? A single bullet will do it, it could be a number of things, nomercy and 6pak and Donald have pulled out lots of headlines. My personal theory is it will be a wall street scandal that will bring down the house of cards. Just like Bre-x killed the junior gold sector, a real inside job, letter stock fraud, or something else like that will it, diminishing earnings won't be enough.

(Mon Sep 22 1997 15:47)
Since some people are impressed with e-mail addresses and may believe there is a one for one relationship between real people and e-mail addresses, supply as many disinformation handles as is required with their own e-mail address.

The Wichita Lineman
(Mon Sep 22 1997 15:51)
A mutual fund debacle will kill this irrational exeubrance !
Thanks to nomercy, 6pak and donald and gold-eagle, et al for their newsflashes, but guys, take a look at what killed the bull in the early 1970s. Mutual funds were buying unregistered 'letter stock', and hid losses from their balance sheets as long as they could. It will be a 'crisis in confidence' that will kill this bull, and the fund companies are not the 'sweetharts' they pretend to be. Once they sentiment on funds turns sour, the funds will have to liquadate positions fast to meet the demand for unitholder redemptions. A key statistic is how much cash do the people have left to pour into funds ?

The Wichita Lineman
(Mon Sep 22 1997 15:55)
fund redemptions vrs. new purchases
To all the statistics gurus, does anyone have the ratios on net mutual fund redemptions vrs purchases ? put another way, is the gross size of funds under management increasing at a diminshing rate ?. I feel that most of the boomers I know have put all they want to in funds. The thrill has worn off.

(Mon Sep 22 1997 16:03)
Wichita Lineman: I think the best description of the market is an analogy with waves on a beach. Although the break point when the wave crashes can be described mathematically, noone has been able to do this with market crashes. If you sit at the beach you can see the big rollers rise up and up, but its not easy to predict how high they go before they break. Human nature being what it is, we are easily lulled into a false sense of confidence, sometimes for years. How much of what you are seeing at this web site is front page news? How many newspaper articles have you seen that critically analyze the day's events? Everything goes in cycles it seems, even the telling of the truth. I am not an expert on gold, but it is my impression that historical gold bear markets can go for years -- typically on average about two. Long term there is a 54 year cycle between "real" assets and "paper" assets. Knowing when to be bullish on gold requires the patience of Job. In my opinion is is worth it, because where will the hard currency come from when we have to pick up the pieces and start over again? The third world and european countries are far more aware of this than North Americans.

(Mon Sep 22 1997 16:05)
JTFlick + Who Cares + Others @ HELP = WHY :) :) :)
The Byzantine Empire, made the silk trade into a imperial monopoly.
Also, between 547 and 558, the plague was a factor in these empires.

London Bullion Market Association ( LBMA ) , I suggest has competition.
I do not understand the impact of this competition. I sure would
appreciate anyone filling in the gap for me.

The same with lease rates. I suggest that a thread exists between these
two issues. LBMA announcement, and the Istanbul gold bourse. Gold is the
International Currency. M2 & M3 paper is a concern in the USofA, and
other nations that hold USofA bonds. Now gold is another issue, with all
the political ramifications that are International. How the hell do we
get an insight re: action of gold, to discover what the hell is going on.
We know that the world paper currency is about to collapse, much has been
supported here at Kitco, suggesting that reality.

When I first attended this site, much was focused on the hyper-inflation
possibility, now it is other than inflation, or is it. There is Turkey
with 80% inflation, and establishing a new Gold exchange. Interesting,
yet, not the answer. ( Active War, of religion maybe, christian, muslim )

There are two ( 2 ) board members of Barrick Gold, past President of the USofA, and past Prime Minister of Canada, this also is interesting. Two high profile Politicians, involved in an industry that is not larger than Coca Cola. Why would they not be more involved with the "New Era" Industries. ?

Questions, add to more questions, be quiet-consume-and die, works better than always asking the question WHY??? Take care

Thw wichita Lineman
(Mon Sep 22 1997 16:06)
If gold is so passe, why are gold stocks holding their ground ?
If gold has no potential, why are gold stocks holding up ?. Simple, investors know that they are the only thing on the market now that has a shread of value in them. "Do as I say, not as I do........."

(Mon Sep 22 1997 16:08)
Local Barter Currencies -

If anyone is interested in information regarding local currrency and bartering I can email this to you. Send your email address to . Basicly it is an attempt to create and encourage local economies which do not rely exclusively on government paper money.

I think this is a good idea as an educational tool and as a means of creating alternative systems should our current system completely fail. Others here have broached the topic of a gold backed e-currency system. This might fit in some way. ( commodity, labor, skill represented in the value of the currency system, etc. )

(Mon Sep 22 1997 16:21)
Another crash-UP for the Dow ( up 79.56 ) and another yawner for gold ( up a dime ) ....XAU got hammered ( down 1.81 @ 93.03 ) ....EB: Looks like YOU had a good day with your long positions in PL+ Mr. Yen....and your "Lambs" even beat my Giants....Hi Tort!!

(Mon Sep 22 1997 17:07)
Equity inflows this rate it appears that September inflows should be under $15bn...
NEW YORK, Sept 22 ( Reuter ) - U.S. equity funds took in an estimated $3.01 billion for the three days ended September 18
compared with inflows of $4.18 billion for the prior two-day period, fund tracking service Mutual Fund Trim Tabs said.

(Mon Sep 22 1997 17:08)
CARL: Yours at 15:37. To his credit, Franklin Roosevelt was opposed to the FDIC for that very reason. Even though he argued against it he became convinced that money would not come back to the banks without insurance, and eventually signed the bill. It is ironic that he was correct and that was the reason for all those S&L and other bank failures of recent years.

(Mon Sep 22 1997 17:19)
WHO CARES: The eastern branch of the Roman Empire was founded by Constantine ( Constantinople ) . They struck the gold solidus from pure 24 karat gold starting in 383AD. They were nicknamed "bezants" by Europeans and were never degraded during an entire 700 year period. During the last 300 years of the empire there was debasement. ( from Historic Gold Coins of the World, Burton Hobson )

(Mon Sep 22 1997 17:42)
Sanyo Securities in financial trouble.

(Mon Sep 22 1997 17:51)
Hashimoto and his policymakers have stumbled.

(Mon Sep 22 1997 18:00)
@derivative trading by central banks
Donald: Isn't it interesting that central banks, effectively entrusted with the safekeeping of other peoples money, are trading derivatives. Now Thailand and possibly Indonesia get caught. Looks like Brazil has been doing the same.
Are they going to get punished, or just get bailed out, with a significant portion of this being US dollars? Perhaps central banks are above being punished! I wonder what other ( larger, more sophisticated? ) central banks gave them the idea to do this. I doubt this was entirely due to the example of the private sector.

(Mon Sep 22 1997 18:01)
IMF to invoke "good governance clause" in future loans in an attempt to eliminate corruption and misuse of public funds. ( too late for Thailand )

(Mon Sep 22 1997 18:05)
JTFLICK: Our posts crossed. Now that they are invoking the GG clause only the Vatican will qualify for an IMF loan.

(Mon Sep 22 1997 18:15)
If the Dipsters can't get their 100% All-Bran we are in real trouble!

(Mon Sep 22 1997 18:21)
There are bulls, there are bears. But what does the "RHINO" have to say about bonds and gold? Find out in TRADING THE RHINO, Mike
Sheller's trading strategy that even a kid can use:

(Mon Sep 22 1997 18:25)
Dow/Gold Ratio 24.93

(Mon Sep 22 1997 18:29)
Donald @ 18:01
"good governance clause". Such a clause, one could expect to exist in
the contract between the USofA Government, and the Corporate Federal
Reserve Board, when the Corporate Federal Reserve was entrusted with the
USofA's Citizens wealth. 83 years later, this trusted corporation, is now
considering such a clause. All you USofA citizen's must surely be at a
loss to understand why, this corporation has been allowed to destroy the
dream of the USofA.

As a Canadian, I fight a total up hill battle attempting to have fellow
Canadian's understand what has happened to the Canadian dream. No, I
have not been able to have many understand. It is usually "Oh Well".

I consider the Freeman of Montana is the focus point to the turn around
in the USofA. In Canada, the turn around will be the question of Quebec.
Both are fighting for freedom, both are fighting to reveal the truth,
both are attempting to awaken the sleep walkers. Yet, little is
understood by the general populations. The beat go's on eh!

Just as gold is at question here at Kitco. I raised the question of
LBMA and Istanbul,and lease rates ( by John Disney ) one comment was put
forth by BB Fisher ( I think, that was the person ) . There is something to these questions. Maybe more questions, let's knock the issue around eh! : ) : ) : ) Take Care.

(Mon Sep 22 1997 18:31)
Wichita Lineman in 15:44 post said: "My personal theory is it will be a
wall street scandal that will bring down the house of cards."

This is exactly how the crash of 1992 on India's Dalal Street unfolded,
after a short once-in-a-lifetime kind of stock frenzy that followed the
first wave of economic liberalization. Many domestic and foreign banks
were found to be illegally lending large amounts to certain "bull
operators" for very short periods at very high interest rates. Exposure
of these deals triggered the collapse.

The 1992 high in the blue chip stock index ( Sensex ) was slightly
exceeded a couple of years later and almost reached again earlier this
year, making a triple top. But the second tier stocks never came close
to their peaks. Many second tier stocks are still off 80-90 percent
from their peaks, after recovering from even lower levels reached last
year. Some of these are top 50 companies, that have maintained or even
increased their dividends.

It does not seem to me that the US stock market has yet reached the
irrationality levels seen in India in March 1992, or in Japan in 1989,
but US may have a different irrationality tolerance level.

(Mon Sep 22 1997 18:33)

nomercy--I checked out the reference to Malaysian air pollution. Another story there said the area of Indonesian forest fires was bigger than the Malay peninsula! El Nino is beginning to draw blood.

(Mon Sep 22 1997 18:40)
Newmont dodgin' bullets over tailings...

(Mon Sep 22 1997 18:43)
gold recycling from dental work...

(Mon Sep 22 1997 18:43)
6pak- 16:05
I found a former Canadian PM on the Barrick board. Who is the former USA president? I did not find one on the Barrick home page.

(Mon Sep 22 1997 18:46)
Kiss your dreams good bye @ MAI = Central Banker's Govern = Money talks B.S. walks
September 22, 1997

Canada demands culture clause in MAI

OTTAWA, Sept 22 ( Reuter ) - Canada will walk away from talks on a Multilateral Agreement on Investment unless it includes a cultural exemption, senior Canadian trade officials said on Monday.

"Culture is not on the table," said one official in an off-the-record briefing with reporters. "It is a deal-breaker," echoed another official.
The multilateral agreement on investment ( MAI ) talks under the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development ( OECD ) is based on consensus. If any one of the 29 members walk away, the deal collapses, scuttling more than two years of talks.
"If the deal is no good, that's what we're going to do," said one trade official.

Some countries, including the United States, want a general provision applying to all members exempting them from including cultural industries in the investment treaty, the officials said. But others, including Canada, support France's proposal to design country-specific exemptions for culture.

Labor, environment and nationalist groups made the MAI an election issue, accusing the Liberals of keeping their intentions secret. The critics argue that the MAI would hurt Canadian sovereignty, limiting the state's power to protect cultural industries and environmental and labor standards. Power would go to multinational corporations instead, they argue.
Government officials assured reporters the MAI would not do any of these things. "We're not handing over our right to govern," said one.

(Mon Sep 22 1997 18:51)
tekgk @ 18:43
George Bush, Both attended, Bre-X walk around, in Indonesia.

(Mon Sep 22 1997 18:54)
@the scene
Fast-track vs. Brazil. Isn't this a repeat of fast-track and mexico?

Stone Slinger
(Mon Sep 22 1997 19:01)
tekgk George Bush has worked for Barrick on the bre-x busang, i don't think he is a director though. Just needs his palms warmed regularly.

(Mon Sep 22 1997 19:23)
lots of volume noted in recent trading days re XCL
reports of oil discovered in china in tune of 8k+ and more sectors yet to
be checked
also at Sleeper Gold Project " A resource of over 1,000,000 ounces of gold has been independently verified in the pit area "

this is a penney stock that has been trading over 3mill shares
any comments or suggestion?

(Mon Sep 22 1997 19:24)
Fast-Track works @ Mexico Success = Stocks smash records.
September 22, 1997
Mexico stocks smash records at close

MEXICO CITY ( Reuter ) - Mexican stocks soared to close at an all-time high Monday, boosted by a sustained drop in U.S. long-term interest rates, and a recent series of favorable domestic and international economic news.

The blue-chip IPC share index rose 160.60 points, or 3.14 percent, to close at a record 5,278.73, the highest level for the day. The bourse had set its previous record of 5,212.89 on Aug. 6.

"We've had a string of good news, basically the market is following its recent ( upward ) trend," said Felix Boni, head of reasearch for Mexico at ING-Barings, referring to the fact the bourse had closed higher for the fourth session in a row.

Boni said the good news included lower yields on the benchmark U.S. Treasury bond, which encouraged market forecasts that the Federal Open Market Committee would not raise U.S. interest rates at its policymaking meeting on Sept. 30.

"Particularly good are the exchange rate, inflation, and consumption ( data ) .... The long bond ( yield ) closing below 6.40 percent last week is another positive element," he added.

"We have many buyers, but volume is still not enough to convince me the rally is sustainable," a floor trader said. On the broad market gainers trounced declines by 77 to 16, out of 125 stocks that changed hands.

(Mon Sep 22 1997 19:25)

IMF urges solution to bad loan problem at
Japanese banks
HONG KONG ( Nikkei ) - Japan has failed to devise effective measures
to solve its banking industry's problem with nonperforming loans for five
years, the International Monetary Fund said Monday. Suggesting sale of
real estate held as collateral for bad loans could help the property
market recover, the IMF urged Japan's government to tackle the

The IMF report concluded Japan has been using a policy of low interest
rates to alleviate the loan dilemma, helping boost bank profits while
concealing their rolls of borrowers unable to repay loans. But that policy
did not prompt financial institutions to sell off collateral and offers no
solution to the fundamental problem.

While official estimates put total bad lending by 20 major commercial
banks at less than 5% of all loans, the real percentage is bound to be
higher, the IMF estimated.

(Mon Sep 22 1997 19:27)
Japanese Banks Bad Debts(before current devaluations)
Bad debt write-off by 20 leading banks to
reach 35 trln yen in FY97
Combined debt to be written off by 20 major banks is expected to
reach 35 trillion yen in the year ending March 1998, The Nihon Keizai
Shimbun learned Sunday. While the banking industry says the bulk of
bad loans made during the speculative bubble economy era will be
eliminated in fiscal 1997, new debts could sour due to the growing
number of bankruptcies among small and midsize firms, some analysts

The banks wrote off 27.7 trillion yen in fiscals 1992-96 - when the bad
debt problem turned chronic - and are expected to write off another 7-8
trillion yen this fiscal year.

The amount of debt to be written off is calculated by tallying direct
write-offs, loan loss reserves and losses to be incurred in debt sales to
the Cooperative Credit Purchasing Co., which buys bad debt at market

Cumulative new loans by all banks to real estate firms, construction
companies and nonbank institutions hit some 60-70 trillion yen in fiscals
1986-90, a major think tank estimates. Large banks began writing off
massive amounts of bad debt in fiscal 1992, when a drop in land prices
signaled the end of the speculative bubble; 21 major banks unloaded a
combined 11 trillion yen in fiscal 1995 alone.

Though the figure fell below 7 trillion yen in fiscal 1996, banks appear
certain to write off more debt in fiscal 1997 because they are concerned
some current debt will turn bad in the future, industry observers say.

(Mon Sep 22 1997 19:27)
The Inger Letter Forecast - September 22, 1997
Due to lack of momentum recent market action is characterized as having a CANINE AROMA, leaving open possibility next couple weeks the market may try going to the dogs:

(Mon Sep 22 1997 19:35)
Worry worry worry @ Not to worry = All is well
September 22, 1997
Visa USA sees surge in U.S. bankruptcy filings

WASHINGTON ( Reuter ) - A record number of Americans are expected to declare personal bankruptcy this year, Visa USA Inc. predicted Monday, even as the economy enjoys robust growth in its seventh year of expansion.

"Some of the prosperity in the economy has not been a shared prosperity. There are still a lot of families who are struggling and some of it is pure bad luck," he said.

While expressing concern about high levels of consumer debt, banking regulators have played down the implications of the bankruptcy situation on the banking industry as a whole, given the sector's overall health.

(Mon Sep 22 1997 19:41)
Solutions: Experts warn over 'quick fix'


By Alan Cane

Computer specialists tackling the "millennium bomb", which threatens to create
social and commercial chaos in early 2000, are becoming angered and
disheartened by reports of easy solutions to the problem.

They say assumptions that a "quick fix" is possible are creating a false sense of
security among companies and individuals who should be assessing their
vulnerability and beginning remedial work.

Mr Karl Feilder, chief executive of the consultancy Greenwich Mean Time
and an acknowledged expert on the problem, said: "The danger is that these
little spurts of false optimism perpetuate a very attractive myth that someone,
somewhere, will fix the world's 2000 problem.

"While people wait for a miracle they are losing valuable time. There are only
595 business days left before 2000 hits us. If you are running a large personal
computer network, your Year 2000 project should already be well under

The millennium bomb is a consequence of software techniques common in the
1970s and 1980s where programmers saved expensive computer memory by
recording years as two digits rather than four; that is, as 97 instead of 1997.
When 2000 arrives, most systems will be unable to distinguish between the
20th and 21st centuries - with potentially disastrous results.

Power supplies may be disrupted, road, rail and air transport could be hit,
hospitals will admit emergencies only, and schools will be forced to close in
the first weeks of 2000, according to experts.

Last week Nicholas Johnson, a 14-year-old from Christchurch, New
Zealand, was widely credited with having developed a cure for the problem in
personal computers. Mr Feilder has investigated his claim and concludes that
his solution, if it works, will be useful for only about 1 per cent of the systems
at risk.

The bomb will affect large data processing systems, personal computers and
PC networks as well as tiny control processors built into industrial machinery.

Research by Greenwich Mean Time suggests that most PCs bought before
1997, and 47 per cent bought after that date, will have problems. Of 4,000
software packages tested, 64 per cent had date-dependent features that could
cause them to operate erratically.

(Mon Sep 22 1997 19:42)
Bush + Mulroney + Felderhof @ Bre-X = passed polygraph
September 22, 1997
Former Bre-X geologist says passed polygraph test

TORONTO, Sept 22 ( Reuter ) - The former exploration chief of Canada's Bre-X Minerals Ltd , John Felderhof, said on Monday a polygraph test has concluded that he was not involved in any tampering of Bre-X's Busang deposit in Indonesia.

In a letter to Canadian police investigating the mining scandal, Felderhof's lawyer said his client took a lie-detector test on
August 20, but the results were only made public on Monday.

(Mon Sep 22 1997 19:45)
US bonds (rally to fizzle)
...Bond dipsters...All You Can Buy...tomorrow & wednesday......
( bond yields increase , stock prices correct )
Building on recent gains in the bond market will be difficult, however, for these reasons:

* Weak "Technicals." "Short-covering" of earlier sales of Treasurys with borrowed
securities, that helped power the market higher since last Friday, has been largely
unwound. Moreover, money managers' cash positions are relatively low and portfolios
already have been tilted toward longer-term securities, judging from a weekly survey by
Stone McCarthy Research. That leaves investors with less room to support a rally by
shifting into bonds. Moreover, the market is bracing for $27 billion in new supply from
the Treasury's two- and five-year note auctions this week. * "Rich" Prices. Treasury
interest rates already are low compared to the 5.5% Fed funds target rate. As indicated
in the chart below, for example, the yield on policy-sensitive, two-year Treasury notes is
little more than a quarter percentage point above the Fed funds target rate, a level more
consistent with periods of Fed easing. However, the Fed funds futures curve still is
"pricing in" a tightening sometime next spring, so something has to

(Mon Sep 22 1997 19:49)
Russia bans hard currency cash payments from November
Russia is banning the use of hard currency for cash and credit-card payments
in the country from November in another move to boost the role of the rouble.
Central bank deputy chairman Alexander Turbanov told a news conference
the central bank had stabilised the rouble against the dollar, and the volume of
hard currency in shops' payments had fallen sharply in recent years.

(Mon Sep 22 1997 19:51)
WILD-CARD - ENERGY sector/family-grp.; & GRAINS .....

I recall, from 1972 to '74, and even now, I recall what, in essence, a newsletter-writer said then. His investment newsletter, available then, at the financial branch of the public library, in San Francisco, on Kearny St., down-town, was titled Myer's Finance & Energy...I think, as best I can recall. Mr. Myers called it, as he saw it. Early on - there would be multitudes lining up at the pump, he said. This, is what I recall.

He said then, that the cost of gas at the pump, and 'energy', everywhere, was about to go up, and 'big-time'.

He explained that there would be a 'shortage'; mostly because the sound businessmen, of the middle-east, were sick & tired of receiving paper dollar money, in exchange for their very real, oil, in barrels.
Barrels of oil, in exchange for - barrels of paper money.... you figure it out.

And NOW, the 'wild-card', of energy, and the energy sector of crude oil
futures, plus heating oil, natural gas, & unleaded gas - to boot: ...
all of these energy futures markets, are, perhaps reminding us, of our most vulnerable 'achille's heel'.

Without cheap, available energy, we will crumble, or at least - 'kneel'.

Today's action is clear: it confirms Nov. Crude Oil's bottom in the first half of June; and Nov. Heating Oil's low, not til early Sept., a week or two ago. As many of you know, as I've repeated, repeatedly, upon this post: when there are "family divergencies" - IN TIME & PRICE, within a family-commodity-futures most often is likely - that it occurs at a turning point in the trend of that market.

And so, just as Heating Oil bottomed a week or two ago, while Crude Oil bottomed, about mid-June, instead: this divergence pattern within the 'family-group', of the energy sector -- reminds us: do not ignore this.

Building, upside bullish pressure, in the price of gas & electricity, will knuckle under all of us -- to humility, and a bear market for bonds & equities ...... yes, especially to the seeming effervescence of this stock-market's false reality.

Final down-side 'shake-out', for the precious metals, is approaching & here, here & now. Grain markets are rumbling, as they rumble up & down: gearing up, for their next chapter, of towering 'up'.

And so I ask you:
without the cheap energy to fuel our factories, computers & cars;
and without the food to fuel the factories of our earthly bodies given us, each and every one .....
where would we all ....
in this market place of life.....
otherwise 'be'...?

(Mon Sep 22 1997 19:51)
Smash + Soared + Buying Spree @ Toronto Stock Market-Things are Great eh! Up Up Up
September 22, 1997
Toronto stock market smashes 7000

TORONTO ( CP ) - Canada's biggest stock market soared through another
barrier Monday as investors went on a buying spree because the long-term
outlook for inflation remains low.
The Toronto Stock Exchange benchmark index of 300 stocks closed above the 7,000 mark for the first time, setting its 35th record high this year
for a gain of about 18 per cent in just over eight months.

(Mon Sep 22 1997 19:53)
Anybody have a clue as to why Royal Oak Mines is rising, even though gold prices are in the doldrums. Volume was high today, over 522,000 shares up to 2 3/16 ( US ) . Up 1/2 dollar in the last 2 weeks.
Any rumours?

(Mon Sep 22 1997 19:54)
Malaysian currency sinks after Mahathir's attack
The Malaysian prime minister Mahathir Mohamad's weekend attack on
foreign currency traders drove the ringgit to a 26-year low . Falls in the ringgit
also drove the Indonesian rupiah down. However, the ringgit's weakness saw
the export-heavy commodities markets rise sharply. Palm oil futures and the
tin price rocketed. Financier George Soros, who at the weekend described
Mahathir as a menace to his own country, has attempted to calm the row over
Asia's financial crisis . Soros told Singapore-based Asia Business News
television that the investment funds he controls played only a minor role in the
recent South East Asian market turmoil.

(Mon Sep 22 1997 19:55)
Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious Metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )

(Mon Sep 22 1997 19:58)
World Bank/IMF win support in anti-corruption fight
The development committee, an influential policy-making committee at the
World Bank/International Monetary Fund, has reached broad agreement on a
global anti-corruption strategy. The Bank has described corruption as a
"cancer" that threatens to undermine foreign support and aid to the developing
world. The Development Committee will recommend that the Bank conduct
stronger country audits and include corruption as one element in good
governance criteria. The International Monetary Fund will also include
corruption as an element in its macroeconomic analysis.

(Mon Sep 22 1997 20:01)
6pak at 19:51: 18 % in 8 month? What a pitiful performance you guys up North - our DOW did 28% just in the last 5 month ;- )

(Mon Sep 22 1997 20:04)
Barrel @ Barrel
Barrels for barrels, good point. Question, is there some material support
for your position regarding the Middle East, oil suppliers, wanting other
then barrels ? Are you suggesting this Istanbul gold exchange ?

(Mon Sep 22 1997 20:09)
Miro @ 20:01 + David @ 19:51
Miro: Only in Canada, you say. The money has gone south, eh! : ) : ) : )

David at 19:51: the barrel for barrel, was sent your way. Ooops.

(Mon Sep 22 1997 20:14)
Anyone using webb TV: Questions -- What is the modem speed or download time compared to a33.6 modem? Do you have any file storage capacity? Bookmark storage capacity? Thx.

(Mon Sep 22 1997 20:14)
ING Barings: New York Stock Exchange puts
on pressure after audit findings


By Jean Eaglesham

ING Barings is under pressure from the New York Stock Exchange after a
routine audit of its New York brokerage arm uncovered an unacceptably high
backlog of unsettled share bargains. But the firm insists that the problem is
principally a technical one.

"ING Barings Securities has acknowledged that the level of trade mismatches
is unacceptable from both the firm's and the exchange's point of view. They
are addressing the problem," said a spokesman.

However, he stressed that the firm specialised "almost exclusively" in emerging
markets. Share deals in these markets are, by their very nature, harder to
settle than deals in markets such as the US or UK.

"It is inevitable that there will be a higher proportion of failed trades than
would be the case if we were broking equities in a developed market," the
spokesman added.

ING Barings said yesterday that it was unaware of any formal investigation
by regulator the Securities & Exchange Commission. It also denied reports
that Ned Schoenfeld, chief operating officer at the US brokerage, was leaving
the firm as a result of the settlement problems. "He is in place," the spokesman

The problem hit by ING Barings appears to be a relatively minor one that
could, at worst, lead to the firm being fined. But it is an undeniable
embarrassment, coming as it does just 2 years after rogue trader Nick
Leeson triggered the collapse of Barings, Britain's oldest merchant bank.

The debacle highlighted the inadequacy of Barings' controls over parts of its

ING, the Dutch bancassurance group which subsequently bought Barings for
1, is unlikely to welcome the news that there still appear to be some control
problems, albeit relatively minor ones.

(Mon Sep 22 1997 20:18)
Lurker @ 19:53
Royal Oak @ TSE up .03 on 206,910 volumne today.

(Mon Sep 22 1997 20:21)
Donald, Isn't the same positive utility for risky bets which the IMF and the Fed has built into the world financial system present in the star system used in mutual fund management. Suppose you're being paid 200k/yr, and by placing money with a 1/10 chance of doubling it and receiving a 2 million dollar bonus and/or becoming a well recognized star for a couple years. The most you can lose is your 200k job. Doesn't this system make speculation rational?

(Mon Sep 22 1997 20:21)
MIRO: I must defend my Canadian Dipster friends. You failed to multiply the 18% rate against the Canadian exchange rate of 1.36. Then the Dipsters did 24.48%. We must be fair about this less we precipitate a trade war and they withhold the Labatt's

(Mon Sep 22 1997 20:22)
Channel Overview
I find it useful to view the activities of all 4 PM's on one chart. It may well be that the discouraging across-the-board drop in early July actually defined major changes in the trends of gold, silver, and platinum. The action in the last couple of weeks could indicate several things:

Gold: Via its sideways action ( inaction ) gold broke out of the well defined downward channel. An optimist would use the recent lows as the bottom of a newly formed channel, trending slightly upwards. Could it be?

Silver: Wow! Could it be that silver has reversed course from a downward trend of -45%/year to an upward trend of +45%/year? Looks that way. I know, this isn't a traditional TA analysis, but I like the picture.

Platinum: OK, this isn't so great. The new trend look like it is half the slope of the old trend. But, hey, 18%/year ain't bad!

Palladium: Your guess is as good as mine. I would use the recent lows to redefine the bottom of the channel. Haven't a clue where to put the top. Still, looks like it is heading north at a rate of around 50%/year.

Is the trend your friend? Would the real trends please stand up!

(Mon Sep 22 1997 20:28)
CARL: It sure sounds like a problem to me. In recent days there has been closed door testimony on a proposal to compensate IRS agents on the amount of money they seize.

(Mon Sep 22 1997 20:28)
"Money is coined liberty" by Dostoevsky
On the Side of Golden Angels provides historical precedent the House Of Rothschild might just be buying gold hand over fist!

(Mon Sep 22 1997 20:28)
Trust @ Your Banker is your Friend. He is here to help, eh!
September 22, 1997
Pennzoil sues UPR financial advisor Smith Barney

HOUSTON ( Reuter ) - Pennzoil Co. filed suit Monday seeking to disqualify Smith Barney as a financial advisor to Union Pacific Resources Group Inc. in the rival oil company's hostile $6.4 billion bid for Pennzoil.

In the lawsuit, the latest in a series of legal skirmishes between the companies, Pennzoil said a strategic plan handed over to UPR as part of the court battles was improperly used by Smith Barney investment bankers.

(Mon Sep 22 1997 20:36)
Help please. I don't know how to post a hypertext link. I'm using a stodgy old prodigy web browser. Can anyone help me?

(Mon Sep 22 1997 20:36)
CARL, ALL: Here is the IRS story I just spoke about.

(Mon Sep 22 1997 20:37)
Money Supply on a Tear: M2 & M3 surge sharply 10.2% & 12.6% annual rate. Greenspan warns Inflation is monetary phenomenon. VERY RELEVANT to Gold is Guest Guru Milhouse analysis:

(Mon Sep 22 1997 21:00)
@...foreign money helping to keep US markets HOT
Today's WSJ article pointed to the record foreign money that flowed into US stocks. The artcile also noted the relationship between the DOW and the Dollar - both rising lock-step. The Japanese economy is clearly in the dumps. The Europeans are preoccupied with balancing fiscal affairs to comply with EMU and domestic challenges concurrently. The result is a break-away US stock market. What seems interesting in all this is that Gold still hasn't broke below $318 - as yet. All this good news about no inflation and a blue sky US dollar supported by a robust economy with frequent talk of CB gold sale dumps and yet the yellow metal still hasn't smashed support. If gold dosen't break below $318 after the DOW ( likely ) smashes up past its 8259 ( Aug6 ) then we may have a floor in gold price afterall. If that is the case we will still need to wait until the Japanese economy resurrects itself so that Jap and xJap investments will 'sector' allocate back to the rising Sun economy. A prospective turn up in the Japanese economy may be beginning now. We won't know until March/98. Given the high degree of foreign money in US stocks - 6% of $14 Trillion or $840 Billion ( I think that was the stat in WSJ ) - an 'small' exodus from the US stock market ( and more significantly, the larger Bond market- which has "another" 33% foreign, mostly Jap, ownership, I think ) would certainly break the stock Bull.

Whenever the paper Bull loses stride we can expect to read in the news about excess expectations and foreign greed trying to harm ol' glory. Nothing will be said of the role of Bob and Allan in sustaining historically high stock valuations in light of the precarious influence of foreign investment in both the US stock and Bond markets.

To be certain, few of Bob Rubin's Wall Street friends will be harmed when the retail pack rushes for the exits in any material correction.
Afterall, the brokerages make easy money on both sides - buy and sell - and, the greater the volume the better the commissions the better the bottom line. To make things look good, I expect that some Brokerages will report 'house' losses after any proposed material correction. This should blunt any pointing fingers ( post fact ) at the purveyors of investment advisory services after the party ends - however brief.

Who knows, maybe ( as oldman would say ) 'funny mentals' could come back in vogue again.


(Mon Sep 22 1997 21:04)
@Donald on Dipsters up North
Donald 20:21: I failed to multiply the 18% rate against the Canadian exchange rate of 1.36? No way Donald! I though about it but then decided that it would not be fair. I had to compensate for a time factor. They did it in 8 month we did it in 4 1/2. Oh well, higher you go more it hurts when you fall. Faster you go, more you get hurt. From that point of view, the US will be hurting much more than our friends up North ;- )

(Mon Sep 22 1997 21:09)
Hey Ted! Not a bad day after all. Pl and Mr. Yen look great and will look even better real soon! I've been on a huge roll!! so my odds will start working against me soon ;- ) Go Blue!

Donald - I printed that recent Article on Japan. Thanks. It's not about economies anymore ( or was it ever? ) . If you want your currency strong just leak something. I think they will try to appease Ruby-Baby and Co. and 'Dr. Detroit' ( Dan Akroyd ) and bring Yen to 110-100. It will not stay at these levels too long. Look what happened today. All foreign currencies looked weaker today except the Yen...good sign. As a matter of fact it looks like a classic reversal. Let's see if a 'bottom' was picked?!?
Pick Sep. Yen then View daily chart then do same for Dec. Now look at similarities in early May. Looks promising, no? ( for some reason I could not send you directly to the pages, sorry ) .

Plat - You are my sweet baby!! Does anyone know what the GC/PL spread is today?? I DO!! :- ) ) There is MONEY TO BE MADE here!! Get on board! and Ride, Sally Ride... the moon

Did someone get the fly swatter?? Cause there were some Bugs flying around here earlier. My compliments to the exterminator on duty...

(Mon Sep 22 1997 21:26)
in sacramento
Carl: All you have to do is type ( or copy and paste ) it in. Any text that begins with the seven symbols h-t-t-p-:-/-/ will automatically be interpreted as a url and will appear underlined and in blue. See? http://

(Mon Sep 22 1997 21:28)
@Camp David
BOB: correctly said. This trail of toliet paper being auctioned on Wall Street is the most ridiculous I`seen in thirty years. Just for example, the internet stocks which have soared in many instances may be obsolte in
six months. What has happened to book value and dividends. They have gone to people like Ted Turner and and the rich and famous. Do
you ever see them donate cash. Never toliet paper is cheaper!

(Mon Sep 22 1997 21:29)
Unions @ Policeman of the Workers = Responsible Trade Unionists
September 22, 1997

AFL-CIO's Sweeney wants government paid campaigns

PITTSBURGH ( Reuter ) - Declaring that the American political system was "awash with dirty money," AFL-CIO President John Sweeney called Monday for government funding of election campaigns and a ban on "soft money" contributions.

Unions spent $119 million on federal political activity and lobbying in the 1995-96 election cycle, including $9.5 million in so-called soft money contributions to political parties, mostly the Democratic Party, according to the Center for Responsive Politics. Labor was outspent by business in direct contributions to candidates by seven-to-one, it said.

Membership of the 78 unions in the labor federation has remained fairly constant at almost 13 million workers over the past two years, down slightly from the middle of 1995, but up slightly from the end of 1995.

In a rare departure with the Clinton administration, Sweeney urged delegates to work to defeat so-called "fast track" legislation that would bar Congress from amending any newly negotiated trade treaties.

(Mon Sep 22 1997 21:33)
With Churchillian clarity & logic Guest Guru Milhouse analyzes Alan Greenspans "secret weapon to ensure economy doesnt dive. M-3 accelerated growth is keystone to higher GOLD prices:

(Mon Sep 22 1997 21:37)

To Poster Re Webtv--Basically, it is a simple to use internet navigator, that uses your TV as a monitor. The modem is a 33.4K baud. It has the ability store about 600 favorite URLs, in a file system of 25 labeled folders. Has e mail, as well. It is as easy to use as a VCR. Can't download, run software, or store data, however. With rebate, it costs $99 now.

(Mon Sep 22 1997 21:39)
RYO up XAU down RYO leads. Anybody have any new whacky stock market predictions to ponder. What are the financial tabloids or financial Papparzzi like Prechter and that crazy Jim Davidson saying?

(Mon Sep 22 1997 21:51)
6pak: it has taken the unions a rather long time ( "duh" ) to figure klinton out. after all he makes all the correct lefty noises and all. and he asks for lots of money at election time. but then there's nafta and all the rest. "duh." unless the unions own goldman sachs, unbeknownst to me, they have been HAD.

(Mon Sep 22 1997 22:11)
6pak regrading you'er 18:29 post
The answer is simple, people are afraid. I have been a none filer of 1040 income tax for 11 years. When I first started most of my friends said that they would wait and see if I went to jail. I battled the IRS for 4 years. They now leave me alone, and my friends do not do a thing.

(Mon Sep 22 1997 22:19)
Gold @ If the Producers do not market the GOLD who will??
Vronsky and Westerman, can you reply to my questions Thanks, Take care.

Is Gold-Eagle site part of the World Gold Council. A MARKETING TOOL of
the Producers eh! Is the Red Baron, and others at the Gold-Eagle site,
staff members of the World Gold Council ?

Marketing: Key to Gold Mining Profitability - 5
Improving Access to Gold

Elsewhere in 1995, Turkey moved towards liberalisation of the gold market by opening the Istanbul gold exchange and introducing gold deposit accounts and gold loans from banks. In Pakistan, a 10% import tax
on gold was removed. And in Dubai, a government requirement on jewellery retailers to put up a substantial bank guarantee was abolished.

Sentiment over the amount of gold held by individual Central Banks can be governed strongly by cultural considerations. Thus, a number of European countries have long-term gold holdings for which there may be a legal requirement. Countries in South East Asia, in contrast, have a smaller proportion of their reserves in the form of physical gold and larger holdings of convertible currencies. Taken overall, IMF statistics suggest that world official gold holdings have altered little over the last three years, a situation that has helped to bring a foundation of price stability.

If you are an executive with a gold-producing company, and your firm is not yet a member of the World Gold Council, please join. We are all in the same industry and can achieve more by working together. If we do not market gold, who will? Think about it.

(Mon Sep 22 1997 22:26)
Ron, Thanks

Senator Blutarsky
(Mon Sep 22 1997 22:36)
The Generous

Steve Puetz: A most generous offer, a free year's subscription to your newsletter. Rather than keep it for myself, how about sending it to the Economics Department at your Alma Mater?

Barry Bonds
(Mon Sep 22 1997 22:42)
@ halftime
Go Giants!

(Mon Sep 22 1997 22:43)
@shocking, but true!
On The Nightly Business Report this evening, the TA expert from Bridge News gave a plug to the XAU. Yup, that's right. He said it looks like it's, "Forming a base."

(Mon Sep 22 1997 22:44)
See if your computer is a Y2K survivor at:

Also in Asia:
China down -7.01 %
Philippines down -2.39 %
South Korea down -1.08 %
Hong Kong down -1.92 %

(Mon Sep 22 1997 22:45)
Evening Panda....That is shocking!....What the hell happened to ABX today???...

(Mon Sep 22 1997 22:46)
in sacramento
Poster: According to Netscape, within a year they'll be handing out free Web TV boxes like candy. Kinda like they do with cell phones now.

(Mon Sep 22 1997 22:54)
TED -- What's truly weird about this gold market is that, even Jim Dines has a 'hold' on gold stocks! Go figure... is this a bottom or are looking over a cliff?

(Mon Sep 22 1997 22:55)

Ron--How true! I paid $300 for mine in March of this year. This is just like calculators. The first calculators cost about $100 and could only add subtract, multiply, and divide.

(Mon Sep 22 1997 23:00)
Good morning JIN!...Thank you for the e-mail about the latest news in your area and I'm just wondering how long it will be until the turmoil in S.E.Asia spreads to the West???....It is late here ( midnight ) and will get back to you tomorrow.....Happy trading!...........younger brother ( bro ) ..

(Mon Sep 22 1997 23:02)
TED -- Take look for yourself. Not that it matters, but there was a big seller near the close.

(Mon Sep 22 1997 23:09)

Ah Miro my friend, thanks for the thoughts about the Canadians and their falling market. The problem is not the fall of 18% but that the amounts within the fall will be in 'metric', so that the fall will be 1.459 times as quick! Damn that metric eh! Mo wonder you guys don't want decimals !


(Mon Sep 22 1997 23:11)
TED -- Here is a slightly different flavor of the same chart.

(Mon Sep 22 1997 23:11)
Panda: I've given up trying to figure out ANY of the markets....just when it looked like the Dow was at least correcting,it's now acting as if it doesn't have a care in the continues to barely have a pulse and the XAU keeps sliding....looks like my investment in ABX will turn out to be a long-term investment as I'm NOT selling it at a loss...
as "they" say...."I'm in it for the looooong haul".....

(Mon Sep 22 1997 23:15)
in sacramento
Auric: Yes, I remember. My brother gave me my first one. It was beautiful. It had a shiny silver template and a big green LED. Found a better one in a box of cereal a few years back . . .

(Mon Sep 22 1997 23:16)
Thankx ( ? ) for the graph....I guess....kind of steep drop,wouldn't you say!....Wouldn't want to ski down that hill.....the stuff nightmares are made of.......EB: Get away from the football game + do somethin productive.....

(Mon Sep 22 1997 23:17)

Ted--I think you made a good move on the stocks you sold. Also--I think you are smart to keep DRIPs.

(Mon Sep 22 1997 23:17)
Goldsmith/Part I
The following article appeared in a newsletter published by Centennial Precious Metals, September 1997: ( As this article is long, I will post it in several parts )

Sir James Goldsmith Death, Gold Manipulation Linked
by Jonathan van Eck

Billionaire financier Sir James Goldsmith died of a heart attack just as we were going to press with this issue. He was widely rumored to have been a big short seller of gold during recent months ( along with Geroge Soros ) . We are digging deeper into this story. Rumors in London say that Goldsmith, known as the most astute market-timer in Europe was telling officials that it was time to buy Gold again. He sensed that the recent turnaround in Gold's price was the real thing...not a technical rally but the beginning of a great bull market. Goldsmith was well known for his personal motto: "Don't try to jump on a bandwagon because by the time you see one, it is too late to buy. He was, according to whispers going around wellconnected financial sources, convinced that if he sold any more Gold short he would lose tens of Millions, even hundreds of Millions of Dollars.

In fact we are being told by well-informed People who have rarely been wrong in such matters that he had a terrible verbal fight with a powerful man in London controlling the international effort to crush gold. It ran oon for hours. When it was over, the 64-year old Goldsmith retired to one of his several mansions and just a day and a half later died of a heart failure...It makes sense and it fits what we do know about the way the Gold market ( dominated by London ) has acted of late.

(Mon Sep 22 1997 23:20)
@ Panda+ABX charts
No mas....yer killin me!

(Mon Sep 22 1997 23:23)
TED -- I have the weirdest feelings about this market. On the one hand stocks like NGC/NEM and GGO seem to be holding their own or going up. Other sectors of the market have had chart patterns that look like the stocks should roll over and tank. Normally I would short those stocks, but of late, I have been waiting for more confirmation of the pattern, only to have those stocks rally! There are lots of bear traps out there! Now, here we are, heading in to winter with unusually cool weather for fall, and what does the XOI do? It rolls over today. Go figure? Looks like a short term pullback? I could put other charts, like Netscape as an example. It's in a long term decline, but a short term up trend. Then again, PBS Nightly Business Report had a picture of the new platinum Eagles? I guess there will be an up coming story on them. I don't know, just call me confused! Maybe I should hit the sack? Nah! Hit the bottle first! Good night!

(Mon Sep 22 1997 23:27)
@ confused
Good night!....and stay away from that bottle.....

(Mon Sep 22 1997 23:30)
@really gone
TED -- relax! They're intraday charts. Every volume 'tick' that you see in red is a sale and the green is a 'buy'. Every price tick is related to the volume tick. Eyeballing it, it looks like accumulation is taking place, but one or two funds selling can blow you out of the water! I have a stock now that looks good on the charts, until you see what's going on during the day. The small fry ( me ) are buying all day long. Then at the end of the day, a fund comes in and dumps 50,000 to 200,000 shares. SMACK! No price gain for the whole day. There's a lesson here!

See you in the morn!

(Mon Sep 22 1997 23:30)
Re; Sleeper! Is the reference to the Sleeper mine in Humboldt County, Nevada? Anyone out there familiar with the locale relevant to the mentioned Sleeper property?

(Mon Sep 22 1997 23:35)
Goldsmith/Part II
Sir James Goldsmith Death, Gold Manipulations...contd.

Mr. Goldsmith was believed to have been the largest Non-Government owner of Gold in the world. Some of our London contacts have for months been picking up rumors that he had been working in concert with self-appointed, would-be rulers of the World ( the Trilateralists and Bildebergers ) to force down the pric e of the Metal. The story is he was willing to sell or sell-short some of his own Gold in the market, every time the price tried to rally.

He had been promised, accouding to our London sources, that when World-Leaders decided Gold was low enough and they had completed what they hoped to achieve, he would be told first, so he could re-BUY his Gold, cover his shorts and come out of the situation richer than ever and owning more Gold than ever. One reason we have listened to these rumors is that traders in London were talking about one unknown market player, who was apparently attempting to break Gold on July 15th, by selling and shorting Gold.

(Mon Sep 22 1997 23:50)
Goldsmith/Part III
Sir James Goldsmith Death, Gold Manipulation...contd.

The July attempt ( to break gold ) temporarily pushed Gold down below $320 per ounce. Needless to say, anyone who also had an interest in pushing bond yeilds lower would also be keen to see the price of Gold decline. That's why we always get such a kick out of gloomy Gold predictions by some economists who work for bond firms. Their commentaries seem to us to have become one-sided. Again, we warn you about such voices. Their case against Gold is not quite so tidy and neat as they would have you believe. They were without a doubt frightened when
Japan's prime minister said recently that maybe Japan should sell some of its US treasury debt paper and replace it with Gold, to better balance their reserves. They jumped on him without mercy. We suspect Japan will do it anyway.

( end of article )