Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

Kitco Inc. does not exercise any editorial control over the content of this discussion group and therefore does not necessarily endorse any statements that are made or assert the truthfulness or reliability of the information provided.

(Wed May 06 1998 00:01 - ID#210235)
What great books? What do you mean?
Farenheit 451?

(Wed May 06 1998 00:02 - ID#227238)
Post-prandial mints?
Mozel: If things go well, we could expect such a course. How 'bout the first 10 milliseconds following the "big bang"? It would be safe to assume that the paper hangers remain unprepared to see their handiwork slide down the wall.

(Wed May 06 1998 00:04 - ID#210235)
Just in time to see the action in the Asian markets tonight. I smell a change in the pattern. A big one. Fed policy change overnight last. Greenspan meets Clinton. Wish I knew what he said. Bet the history books will be full of it in 25 years. What he said. How Clinton responds.
Welcome home.

(Wed May 06 1998 00:04 - ID#317193)
sharefin -derivatives-yes they will...
cause the greatest crash in history. Buy silver in addition to gold. Tom

(Wed May 06 1998 00:05 - ID#335190)
Tolerant1 @ 23:46
You are right about the books and knowledge within. Money and walls are of no importance.
Take Care

(Wed May 06 1998 00:06 - ID#31868)
Prometheus - Hmmmmmmmmmmmm, the books...Hmmmm, we are all stories,
some with marmalade and jam, others tart, with a smidgen of butter, all served with love and understanding. At least in my world, where children fall asleep listening to tails and dragons that wore them so finely

(Wed May 06 1998 00:07 - ID#31868)
6PAK - GULP to YA!

(Wed May 06 1998 00:08 - ID#248180)
@ USA IMF funding -thanks Donald- these Guys sound most desperate indeed

Tuesday May 5, 9:01 pm Eastern Time
U.S. Democrats to support IMF despite row-Gephardt
WASHINGTON, May 5 ( Reuters ) - House Minority Leader Richard Gephardt said on Tuesday that Democrats would not hold up funding for the International Monetary Fund over the agency's push to open capital markets around the globe.
Backing away from a statement issued last week, Gephardt said: ``We must not risk support for the IMF funding on this issue. The Democratic coalition in Congress is prepared to work aggressively with the president and the Treasury to replenish the IMF, to strengthen its foundation.''

``Then we should take the time to review and reform the IMF to ensure that it can successfully meet the challenges of the future,'' the Missouri lawmaker said in a speech to the Economic Strategy Institute.

Gephardt, Democratic Whip David Bonior of Michigan, California Rep. Nancy Pelosi and Rep. Barney Frank of Massachusetts threatened last Friday to oppose U.S. funding for the IMF because of a proposal to amend the lending agency's charter to make the liberalization of capital movements one of the fund's goals.

``Our support for additional IMF funding will be in jeopardy if the U.S. government continues to press for the addition of capital account liberalization to the IMF charter,'' they said in a letter to Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin.

But in Tuesday's speech, Gephardt said his support for IMF funding was not in jeopardy.

``We must not abandon efforts to fund the IMF. If we do, we could jeopardize the very wealth creation we are so proud of in the United States,'' he said.

Gephardt accused Republicans who oppose IMF funding of ``playing a dangerous game of chicken'' with the U.S. economy.

The White House is counting on support from Democrats and especially from Gephardt, who has been leading the fight for IMF funding on behalf of his own Democratic president. Their support will be critical when the House of Representatives votes on the IMF because many Republicans oppose the funding.

Clinton wants Congress to provide $18 billion to replenish IMF resources drained by multibillion-dollar bailouts for Indonesia, South Korea and Thailand.

The package won bipartisan support in the Senate, but it is in serious trouble in the Republican-led House.

Gusto Oro
(Wed May 06 1998 00:11 - ID#377235)
Hey everyone--substantial tankage on the Asian markets tonight...

(Wed May 06 1998 00:14 - ID#173274)
@the scene
I posted something close to this sometime in the distant past: What is the rational of exporting our jobs to have cheaper cost of goods and then turn around to refund these countries out of taxpayer dollars. Where's the savings? Where's any benefit?

(Wed May 06 1998 00:15 - ID#248180)
IMF Should Be Abolished, Former Secretary of State Testifies
Former U.S. Secretary of State George Schultz called for the International Monetary Fund to be abolished as an ineffective institution that has gone beyond the boundaries of its charter. ``We should end the IMF now, that's my opinion,'' Schultz, who served under Presidents Ronald Reagan and Richard Nixon, testified before the Joint Economic Committee in Congress. ``It's not an all-purpose organization, but it's operating as one.'' He urged Congress to thoroughly review the operations of the international lender of last resort before approving President Bill Clinton's $18 billion request to replenish the IMF's depleted reserves.

(Wed May 06 1998 00:17 - ID#227238)
Junior: A tone of desperation. Uttered sotto voce. ..... As the "stuff" draws near the fan.

(Wed May 06 1998 00:17 - ID#248180)
Bloomberg Reported
Previous post from Bloomberg

(Wed May 06 1998 00:20 - ID#173274)
@the scene
Institutions like the IMF are no less than buddy-bailout organizations, funded by the taxpayers and then also further indebting/enslaving the partaking country. NUTS!

(Wed May 06 1998 00:22 - ID#210235)
Nuts to you and me, maybe. But it makes great sense to the folks who borrow at 7% and lend at 18%. We call them IMF.

Not a bad deal. No work involved.

John B__A
(Wed May 06 1998 00:23 - ID#77133)
Goods Words From Solomon Smith Barney
LIMA, May 5 ( Reuters ) - The average price of gold should rise to $350 in 1999, a senior analyst at Salomon Smith Barney said Tuesday. "Our average price for 1999 is $350 an ounce," Leanne Baker, chief gold analyst at Salomon Smith Barney, told a gold industry conference in Peru.

"At the moment we think suppliers are just aiming to survive the problems with gold, so many of them will sell as soon as they see an opportunity. However, we also believe that this is a natural phenomenon for the gold price and that the tendency in the medium term is towards stability," she said.

George Milling-Stanley, chief market analyst at the World Gold Council, also told the conference the price would stabilize. "The current perception is that central banks are going to be selling. But we can observe that the countries which have sold -- Canada, Belgium, Argentina, Australia and the Netherlands -- have not sold for quite a while and on top of that only two are European," he said.
Copyright 1998, Reuters News Service

(Wed May 06 1998 00:24 - ID#69149)
Re: your missive...
Duly noted. Yet could it be possible that the rest of it is even partly true? It would not surprise me. Anyway, even if it WAS true that the Constitution has been for all intents and purposes nullified in the 1930's via Roosevelt and company, what good would that knowlege do now for the average Joe or Jane?

BTW- Nikkei down 326.48... back from the brink...again?

John B__A
(Wed May 06 1998 00:25 - ID#77133)
Should be an interesting morning
All Asian markets are tanking ( minus 2% or more ) and the Globex futures for the S&P and Nasdaq are down about 4 points.

(Wed May 06 1998 00:27 - ID#401237)
$18 Billion, WHY?

They have a trillion dollar problem - So, why is the $18 Billion so important? They will do anything to get that $18 Billion from the US - Why?

I don't think $18 Billion will even cover GE's & Boeing's Asian Plane orders.

By the way what ever happen to the $70 Trillion in derivatives that was unwinding last Fall?


(Wed May 06 1998 00:27 - ID#173274)
@the scene
Junior -- They simply MUST save their 'precious'! However, it cannot be saved, no matter what they do. Got a foxhole dug?

(Wed May 06 1998 00:28 - ID#233199)
@Prometheus - 22:02 re: long URLs

Only the real real long ones. Yes , splitting them would make tehm not work unless cut and past used as with the gold - eagle site. But break would make them NOT blow out the margins for some of us.

Like I said, it is annoying, but not as bad as seeing Gold head for the border again, or getting out of a good stock just before a big jump.

I am using a Microsoft browser, 3.x but I can't tell exactly 'cause it's AOL's copy of it.

(Wed May 06 1998 00:30 - ID#31868)
The good rain from above will wash the blood of Camdesuss from my hands. My toes squish in the grass, and that which were his entrails, which is now fertilizer for the history of all that was wrong with man. He is cast not in bronze but in the heap which sought to restrain the future.

He is the dung of the cosmos, space has no place for him, a lie cannot hide anywhere...he is a lie...he has no place...

Un-Namaste' Camdesuss...............................

(Wed May 06 1998 00:32 - ID#153102)
If you saw what I posted about "artificial person", you may also find it of interest to know that only "artificial persons" can get on the ballot for Congress.

So, as of now, the political process in this country is broken.
Since our money is broken, our law is broken, too. We Are Broke. But, the paperhangers are going to hang on to The Big Lie that they are holding legitimate office legitimately until the people know enough to yell, "Liar, liar, pants on fire !" Or words to that effect.

A Convention of the States seems to be the only way to get this legal fiction of debt off of the people. The gold debt of this government is more than all the gold ever mined. Can this federal government simply default ? Bye, bye credit. This version of the federal government is in a legal and financial cul de sac. It is as dangerous as a trapped armed robber.

(Wed May 06 1998 00:34 - ID#28594)
If Power's handmaidens are Honor and Respect, the dollar is in trouble...

I asked Mozel a question about corporations, and after Mozels fashion {:- ) , his answer was terse, informative and to the point, ...they are the princes in a feudal court; this turned eyes back to WEF ( World Economic Forum, Davos--remember? ) which represents, in many ways, the new royal court, the Mercantile Court. It would appear that Europe and Asia have formed an alliance; and no less than the Belgium PM strongly suggests it ,,, should avoid being institutionalised. 

Prime Minister of Belgium
Hong Kong, 13 October 1997.

Trade between Europe and ASEAN is growing at a remarkable rate. Europe is the second largest investor in ASEAN, after Japan. This relationship is a healthy one, based on mutual understanding and mutual benefits.

The process of cementing the relations between Asia and Europe started in July 1994, with the adoption of a new European strategy towards Asia. The Asia-Europe meeting in Bangkok of March 1996, the first ASEM, created a new momentum in the Euro-Asian dialogue.

In my opinion, the euro will progressively take over part of the dollar's role as a major reserve currency, as happened when the US-dollar took over from sterling in the post-war years. ALREADY NOW, OBSERVERS DETECT A DIVERSIFICATION OF INTERNATIONAL PORTFOLIOS AWAY FROM THE DOLLAR TOWARDS EUROPEAN CURRENCIES. ONE CAN ASSUME THAT CENTRAL BANKS, TOO, WILL PARTLY SHIFT FROM DOLLAR TO EURO RESERVES.

What about the exchange rate stability of the euro vis--vis other currencies? Some observers fear that the euro zone would adopt an attitude of "benign neglect". One reproached the US for taking a similar stance a few years ago. This "benign neglect" seems feasible at first sight because of the reduced degree of openness of the euro zone as compared to the individual member states nowadays. Indeed, whereas the exports to GDP ratio of the European Union member states is currently about 30 % on average, the degree of openness of the euro zone will be about 10 %, which is very similar to that of the US and Japan.

If monetary policy for the euro would indeed be inspired by this kind of neglect for the external position, this could result in excessive fluctuations on the global foreign exchange markets. But I do not believe in this scenario. I am convinced that the tradition of taking care of exchange rates, already well-established in Europe, will continue. All European Union decision-making parties are aware of the fact that global exchange rate volatility may affect not only the internal price stability of the euro zone, but also the competitive position and the growth prospects of the European economy.

From this I conclude that, very probably, the euro will contribute to a more stable international monetary system, and that the advantages of the European single currency will spread far beyond Europe. Global trade will only benefit from it and so will global economic growth.

Note--for future reference: 1994 saw a number of watershed events, not the least of which was BIS revisiting and AMENDING the Basle Accords!

(Wed May 06 1998 00:35 - ID#65118)
Please post a site where I to can watch. Thanks!

(Wed May 06 1998 00:36 - ID#254201)
If you've got a few bucks to spare buy the June SnP now ( 1116.50 ) with a stop under tonights low ( 1115.20 ) . Obj. new high in SnP by the end of next week. June Yen looks like it could go to 79.00, long from 75.60.

(Wed May 06 1998 00:36 - ID#210235)
Well, the least we can do is split up our long URL's until this problem
is solved. And make like first graders with the scissors and paste.

(Wed May 06 1998 00:36 - ID#31868)
mozel - 00:32 - so, sew a button on your head, so they are trapped. I will dive
through the door and let the rest run up my back to get the dirty bastards.

Guys like me are disposable, keep thinking, keep learning...freedom never takes a holiday pal...

(Wed May 06 1998 00:37 - ID#248180)
It's Happening Lads- Mount your Camels - It has hit the fan! Ride Baby Ride!
From the FT- London
CHINA: China may use euro in reserves
By James Harding in Shanghai and James Kynge in Beijing
China yesterday signalled its intention gradually to convert a proportion of its huge foreign currency reserves into euros once it has judged the strength and stability of the new European currency.

The Economic Daily, an official government-owned newspaper, said the launch of the euro should facilitate trade relations with the European Union, China's fourth largest trading partner, by reducing currency risks and other transaction costs.

About 60 per cent of China's $140bn foreign exchange reserves is denominated in dollars, while Japanese yen and German marks each make up about 15 per cent of reserves, the newspaper said.

As the euro emerges as a hard currency to rival the US dollar, international central banks will convert a portion of their foreign exchange reserves into the European currency, the report continues, and China "in accordance with the stability of the currency, needs to increase our euro reserves appropriately and the weighting of our foreign debt".

In the future, the report expected that 40-50 per cent of global financial assets would be denominated in US dollars and between 30-40 per cent in euros. The rest will be held in Japanese yen and other currencies.

However, the article reinforced China's cautious approach to the new currency: "In the short term there are still some risky factors associated with the euro . . . so the relevant authorities in our country should study the impact of the euro carefully."

Zong Liang, a researcher at the centre of international finance at the Bank of China, one of China's big four state banks, said that the euro's launch was likely to lead to an increase in the number of European bank mergers.

In turn, this would raise the competitive pressure on Chinese banks operating in the global marketplace, as they had no immediate possibility of merging, he said.

Mr Zong added that China might also start to balance its current focus on purchasing US dollar-denominated bonds by buying more state bond issues denominated in euros in the future, if the new European currency proved stable.
China's central bank yesterday announced it would open the country's local currency interbank market to eight foreign banks, a further step in the slow but gradual liberalisation of the financial services industry in Shanghai.

Officials said the move underlined the government's commitment to market opening despite turmoil in Asian markets over the past year. China did not think the Asian financial crisis should slow the pace of opening up, said Wang Qinhuai, an official with the research department of the China Foreign Exchange Trade System, which overseas the interbank market.

(Wed May 06 1998 00:38 - ID#210235)
@see the Asian markets here

(Wed May 06 1998 00:39 - ID#401237)


(Wed May 06 1998 00:40 - ID#65118)

(Wed May 06 1998 00:40 - ID#173274)
@the scene
Mozel -- 'Dangerous as a trapped robber'; Now there is a distinctive understatement! When this sucker unwinds, Hitler won't have had anything on 'them'!

(Wed May 06 1998 00:41 - ID#284255)
Could you please explain.

Will do give me ten minutes
If you want to send me an email
I can send you the file - short or long

Going to print a swing chart
Just did todays numbers and it looks sick - very sick

(Wed May 06 1998 00:42 - ID#31868)
It just makes me sick, the United States Dollar is in question...Hmmmmmmmmm,
China, Europe, Hmmmmmmmmmmmm, sickening, sickening........America, have you no shame, you represent the freedom of the planet...sickening...

(Wed May 06 1998 00:44 - ID#248180)
Russia Reserve Bank & EURO$ from Interfax today
 All reserves held at the Central Bank of Russia in German marks will be converted into Euros from January 1, 1999, First Deputy CBR Chairman Sergei Aleksashenko told Interfax Tuesday. He said the conversion would be automatic and would not require any additional talks and consultations. "All remaining funds held at that time in the currencies of the other ten European member countries of the [European] monetary union will also be converted automatically into Euros," Aleksashenko said. He stressed that this would not affect dollar assets and de-posits: they will continue to be held in dollars.

(Wed May 06 1998 00:46 - ID#340302)
@MIRO...what are you so uptight about, my irritated friend???

MIRO said:

Date: Tue May 05 1998 19:27
Miro ( @Farfel on GOLD Market evaluation on 15:16 ) ID#347457:
Copyright  1998 Miro/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Farfel, what have you've been smoking?!? Your comment on *****
Today's gold action proved to be lacklustre with gold ending essentially flat. While DOW/NASDAQ stocks moved into a downward spiral in the last hour of trading, the XAU moved higher on relatively light volumes at the end of the day, thereby reconfirming the negative beta ( contrarian trend ) of gold stocks to general industrial equities.

**** is totally off the mark.

Yes, NASDAQ moved lower in the last hour, however, all other markets moved up by looking at daily activity SIGNIFACTLY SO. You better stay on the mark if you are to provide the market evaluation. Take it from somebody who is 60% of his net worth in a gold market!

F* says:

First, Miro, I happened to be completely accurate in terms of the most important projection I made earlier in the day: THE XAU moved up while both the DOW & NASDAQ fell, thereby confirming ( once again for the umpteenth time in this incipient gold bull ) the XAU's negative beta ( contrarian trend ) to general industrial equities -- a new trend whose existence many technicians on this wonderful forum refuse to acknowledge.

Yes, I was wrong insofar as projecting a negative DOW/NASDAQ downward spiral at the close ( in reality the DOW strengthened somewhat at the close, yet ended DOWN almost 50 points ) .

Somehow, you seem offended by the fact I made these projections almost an hour prior to market close...and heaven forbid, I actually proved to be "somewhat" wrong on one or two counts!!!

Yet, I do not know why you take such offense..BIg F**in G DEAL! I merely copied the attitudes and practices of the infamous CNBC, the wonderful TV business news network that regularly trots out a variety of "on the trading floor" analysts ( usually about an hour before market close ) to make ( usually ) upbeat market forecasts about the impending "strong close" of the DOW & NASDAQ.

If I happened to be not quite exactly accurate....if I happened to be somewhat ( or way ) off the mark...if I happened to influence people with respect to their investment decisions...well, then, I am no more worthy of scorn than America's leading markets opinion-maker, am I?

Why do you take such offense at me for my one hour early market forecast ( no matter how wrong it might be! ) . Hell, I'm just one little guy. If that type of analysis bothers you so much, then you should call up CNBC and berate them for practising the same kind of tactics. Just think of the manner in which this "unbiased" network influences investors. Just think of how often they have forecast strong DOW closes, yet proven to be completely wrong. Yet, where are all the complaints? Why is this pathetic propagandistic arm of the US government, Microsoft, and General Electric not besieged by investor complaints on a daily basis??

Miro, don't waste your breath on an insignificant little guy like me. For one thing, you have ZERO influence over me and I plan to continue making market forecasts whensoever I bloody well please.

If you REALLY do not like "inaccurate" market forecasts, then go tell it to CNBC!

You follow?




John Disney__A
(Wed May 06 1998 00:49 - ID#24135)
Good Call RJ on Platinum
RJ .. You make nice calls sometimes
.. If you can just do something about
that ... you know ..

(Wed May 06 1998 00:49 - ID#65118)
Now thats alot of red! I checked out some of the 52 week ranges
and things are a bit worse than I thought.Layoff's at my employer
are gonna be bigger than they said at first. Zero debt is a wonderfull
thing! YES!!

(Wed May 06 1998 00:49 - ID#153102)
The declaration of emergency is real. But everything that has been done has been done in legislation. Most of it is basically unchallenged because the attorneys are part of the government as officers of the court.
The government and the law presume you and Joe and Jane know the law.
You do not have to participate in the inventorying of human flesh.
Whether or not you are an "artificial person" is all about choosing to have a status. Your conduct determines whether or not you have a status. Your choices determine your standing in law.
If the average Joe and Jane invest time and money to learn some law, they can defend themselves in association with others and with the counsel of other average Jane and Joes, make intelligent choices when faced with demands by bureaucrats, avoid "artificial person" status, learn to resist power with law, and be freemen. It sure beats running around in the streets like chickens with their heads cut off or sitting around moaning and groaning and waiting for somebody, somewhere to do something.

(Wed May 06 1998 00:51 - ID#173274)
@the scene
APH -- Thanks for the 'take' on the markets. Yen up; more than likely. S&P up; Not for me. Not that I don't believe in the funds of the PPT....

(Wed May 06 1998 00:53 - ID#210235)
We come here to get AWAY from CNBC and their ilk. Not to copy them. Don't you get it yet?

(Wed May 06 1998 00:53 - ID#31868)
sharefin - I shall take the liberty in that you are not referring to the Rubin comment.
Therefore I will address the dollar acting as a sponge soaking up gold and the like. Really it is quite simple, the criminals have not had enough time to transfer their goods into something tangible.

Gold, silver, other "things" anything other than paper. In addition to the criminals, their accomplices will not allow the dollar to shatter too quickly, until they too have had the opportunity to transfer their wealth into more substantial holdings.

Sad commentary on our leaders but we have chosen poorly.

Gold never changes in value, the measure in paper is only in tandem with the stupidity of those who allow themselves to be robbed. Simple equation reallysad, but, true

John Disney__A
(Wed May 06 1998 00:55 - ID#24135)
Tough Guys dont need Claymores
and Soldier ..
You'd NEVER get close enough to use that

John Disney__A
(Wed May 06 1998 00:56 - ID#24135)
Welcome Back
A round of applause please..

(Wed May 06 1998 00:58 - ID#20135)
Comex Gold is a paper market. Let us look for the money. Where is it flowing?

FWN: 143700 GMT

COMEX Estimated Volumes for Today


Gold 23,000
Silver 18,000
H.G. Copper 6,000

-- ( Quoted in Troy Ounce )
Net. Adjust- Total
Chg. ment Today

0 0 37,685,930
293,952 288,672 52,183,052
293,952 -288,672 89,868,982

warehouse stocks:
-- GOLD ( Quoted in Troy Ounce )
Prev. Received Net. Adjust- Total
Total Withdrawn Chg. ment Today

496,181 0 0 0 0 496,181
162,312 0 0 0 0 162,312
658,493 0 0 0 0 658,493

Warehouse stocks:

Copper - high-grade cathodes ( in short tons )
point previous received withdrawn net chg total

Total 105,896 0 1,207 -1,207 104,689

(Wed May 06 1998 00:58 - ID#173274)
@the scene
SDR -- YES! Welcome back. Don't DO that again!

(Wed May 06 1998 01:10 - ID#284255)
Yes - very clear
Why complain
That evil men grow fat
And wealth increases for them
When justice costs so dearly
The common man is dispossessed
Of justice, in this land
For justice in this country
Justice gives place to the Law
And the lawyers thus grow fat.

The strength of government
Is the Law
But when Law invites corruption
Government itself becomes a victim.

When the Law is weak
Interpretation defeats justice
To suit the purse
Even our judges are confounded
And appeal but proves the flaws
The costly folly of our laws.

We need a government
Whose strength is justice
Rather than the law.

SDR@welcome back and just for you;
Folly, Frenzy and Fear, those Careless are
The fates that mould our destinies, and shape
The grave dishonesties, deceits, that mar
Our work, our very loves, our art
Stir the dark anxieties, the mortal pains
The dark and deadly pride that stains
The living dying heart.

We mime the random measure of their art
Act out the torment of their aimless play
Suffer all things with numb unfeeling heart
The less their willful torment day by day
Or wanton, toss to waste our life in play.

Only that man,
Who steadfast stands apart
And cries his manhood, cries aloud - I AM
Will be free of such dire fates
Only thus be saved,
Be his own man.

Swing chart updated
Off to play with the paint stripper - bbl

(Wed May 06 1998 01:12 - ID#225283)

(Wed May 06 1998 01:12 - ID#153102)
You have brought to light and brought to this forum the portents of momentous change and documented it. We all admire what you have done. And all here should benefit by it. Thanks very much.

(Wed May 06 1998 01:12 - ID#24864)
Asian Indices for Open Loop and all
I find this also useful...updated each 15 minutes.
Gold stuck under $304. Good Luck John C

(Wed May 06 1998 01:12 - ID#225283)





(Wed May 06 1998 01:18 - ID#227238)
Mozel: Yes, I was fortunate to catch your original comments on the artificial person. Additional expansion this evening helped to clarify the definition.

(Wed May 06 1998 01:22 - ID#153102)
How long will it be before people realize the FRN is merely a dishonored Note for Nothing ? They will not all realize it at once. As you say, those in the halls of power are going to be in the lifeboats when this Titanic sinks. These are our Elect ?

P.S. We need to have a heart to heart about this suicide assault notion of yours.

(Wed May 06 1998 01:22 - ID#227238)
SDRer: I wish to add my applause in support of your return. Welcome back. It's a poorer place without you.

(Wed May 06 1998 01:26 - ID#210235)
You dive through that door and we'll all dive in after you. Now that would make a terrible mess of things.

All: Goodnight. Sleep and dream a better world for our children.


(Wed May 06 1998 01:27 - ID#340302)
One of the most fascinating complaints about the gold market provided by Wall Street New Paradigm disciples revolves around gold's anachronistic role in our society.

Specifically, the gold critics complain that, in our wonderful New Era, there are simply far too many transactions occuring daily on a global basis for gold to serve a role again.

In our high speed, modem-paced society, what sense does it make to transport gold around from country to country? What sense does it make to store it, unload it, reship it? Essentially, why should the speedy, cyber-paced, transactional nature of our world be hindered by the unwieldy, limiting physicality of gold reserves? Only paper movements or cyber bit transfers can begin to account for the multitudes of transactions occurring around our planet. Gold's role in our financial and monetary system is over!

Furthermore, the New Paradigm disciples note that the value of gold is ultimately determined by the dominant currency of the day. So long as we measure gold's worth in units of the dominant currency, then gold's value is actually contingent on the strength of that dominant currency. So long as our daily transactions are conducted ONLY in units of the dominant currency, then gold can never be worth more than the dominant currency. The corollary: if the dominant currency weakens, ergo gold must fall in value as well.

Such nonsense!

Gold opponents essentially engage in a specious form of intellectualism where gold's value is concerned. If you follow their intricate logic from A to Z, then you must ultimately conclude that the U.S. dollar is King and every other thing in the world MUST relate back to it.

Here's the major problem with such intellectualism: when an item ( such as gold ) has some 5000 years of attributed high value to it, then in any emotional crisis, the average investor is not going to take the time ( nor even have the ability ) to look at said item from an intellectual perspective.

Rather, the average investor, in crisis, is bound to experience a visceral atavistic reaction and immediately seek out gold as a store of value not necessarily because it makes the most sense...but simply because his perceptions of gold's value are rooted within his very genes.
Even the thirsty investor wandering the dusty Sahara Desert will NOT deny the value of gold...he may treasure water more highly at that particular moment; yet, if you offered him 100 ounces of gold or a glass of water, he would certainly agonize over his decision and try and figure out some strategy that would allow him to walk away with both. Such is the universal veneration of the yellow metal!

The failure to recognize this scintillating piece of reality is a profound failure to understand the very nature of the human psyche.
It is a profound failure to understand the very essence of mass investor psychology. Gold's value is ultimately a function of human appetite, not human intellect.

Conclusion: in any economic crisis, the average investors will flee to gold simply because, in crisis, intellect does not dominate and those in crisis cannot ( and will not ) deny their base, intrinsic appetites.




(Wed May 06 1998 01:30 - ID#284255)
By the way,
I forgot to ask?
Did they have time in '87, to do what you described?

I know they've had 6 months of warnings, so far this time

Why, ALL of us here, even realize that.

tick tock tick tock here comes the croc............

watching and waiting with his guileless smile
or his idiot grin...........
welcome welcome, why please come in.

(Wed May 06 1998 01:37 - ID#340302)
@PROMEY...I get it...
...and I hate to go on about this point ad nauseum...

But I continue to believe that, for the gold bull to get firmly on its feet, in its initial stages, it becomes imperative to mimic some ( if not all ) of the strategies and tactics of Wall Street's New Paradigm.

At the very least, do not criticize a goldbug for adopting a Wall Street New Paradigm strategy WITHOUT attacking the Wall Street disciples who make far greater ( and deadlier ) use of said strategy.

You follow?



(Wed May 06 1998 01:38 - ID#31868)
sharefin - 1:10 - Hmmmmmmmmmmmm, mmmmmmmmmmm,mmmmmmmm
Well stated my friend...gulp to ya...Ray Charles and Billy Joel spanking the keys in the background, no finer song to hear before diving through a door.......gulp to ya...

These words you speak weigh not on a soul, but rather, enliven that which already is happy to be alive under the sun...


(Wed May 06 1998 01:40 - ID#153102)
So, you think the same set of people are in PM equities as are in equities in general ?

(Wed May 06 1998 01:54 - ID#31868)
sharefin - re:87 - yes
Old money never puts itself at risk...never...the Casino started in the seventies, early in the seventies...since then the old money has just been raking it in...

(Wed May 06 1998 01:58 - ID#28594)
This is one of the battles Al and Bob have on their hands...
CH Kwan

A small but growing lobby in Japan is proposing a Yen currency bloc in Asia. It argues that the region would see considerable economic benefits

Interest in a Yen currency bloc has increased significantly in recent years given the backdrop of growing Japanese economic and financial power, deepening economic interdependence between Japan and the fast-growing countries of Asia, and growing instability in the US dollar-centred international monetary system.

So far, the idea of a Yen bloc in Asia has been widely dismissed as immature, if not irrelevant. The arguments against centre on political considerations - most Asian countries, remembering their experiences at the hands of Japan during World War II, are reluctant to allow Japan a more dominant role in the region than it already has. The Japanese government also seems reluctant to take a higher profile in Asia or the world at large.

But the recent experience of monetary integration between Germany and France, and the formation of a Deutschmark bloc in large parts of Eastern Europe, much of which suffered at Germany's hands in both world wars, suggests that the political barriers can be overcome.

So the political cost of a Yen bloc in Asia seems to be falling, while the potential economic benefits are rising. The idea of a Yen bloc will mature when the economic benefit surpasses the political cost.

Malaysia's proposal to form an East Asian Economic Caucus, with Japan playing a leading role and the United States excluded, suggests that this time may not be too far away.

In Japan, the increasing volatility of the Yen-dollar rate has
prompted a small but growing lobby in favour of considering promoting
the international use of the Yen in Asia as one way to protect the domestic economy from exchange rate fluctuations.

All@Kitco--Thank you all. We'll finish what we've begun, yes?
"My purpose is, indeed, a horse of that color." {:- )

Sharefin@I.shall.have to work very hard to earn THAT coin!
But then, am I a man or a mouse? {:- ) )

John Disney__A
(Wed May 06 1998 01:58 - ID#24135)
To Oris
If you chart gold in various currencies .. You may
find supporting Channel lines at the following points
442 swiss, 535 dm, 183 stirling,39000 yen .
At current currency rates .. this puts June gold support
at 298, 302, 303, or 295 yen .. The yen number is
out of line and suggests the yen will strenghthen vs
the other currencies .. to 130 anyway.
The dollar bull market seems to be petering out..all
the PMs would look a lot worse otherwise.
The forecast that I made to you for the end of
April was based on the assumption that gold
would approach the bottom of its channel
line in currencies .. That has almost
transpired.. It took a little longer than
I thought it would, and the dollar was
weaker than I thought it would be.. also
I had no decent pickles.
Elliot waves did not enter into this
PS .. you know Silver is really weak ..
I had support at 9 swiss francs and it is
THERE .. If that breaks .. big s..t ahead.
and ew stuff may take over.
PPS .. Your diplomatic efforts were outstanding
as always .. and you are right .. DEATH
before dishonour.

John Disney__A
(Wed May 06 1998 02:01 - ID#24135)
Farfelnickle my friend
... Like all great writers..
You need a great editor ..
with a great RED PENCIL

(Wed May 06 1998 02:05 - ID#284255)
As a balanced investor you should have 10% in PM equities.
Or so they say.

The average investor has missed out on gold
And won on banks and high techs' etc.
Maybe their weightings are way down or non-existant.
Many people would hold a minimal portion in PM equities.

What would you do in a crash, if you were them.
Sell your IBM shares or your dogs - PM's
The shares that have gone up 500%
Or the ones that have fallen 40%

I know what you would do.

But what about the average investor?
And what of the funds and mighty houses?
Who handle portfolios of billions.
Would their young managers
Sell their best or their dogs?

Many young minds controlling trillions.
Now what do you think, they would think?

We both know the answer

Greed for profits shall shape their response.
As always.

Like Y2K you can not be 'in denia'l of these facts.

(Wed May 06 1998 02:05 - ID#247190)
1998 The Glory has departed
For those of you who care to know, here's a quick lesson on God and numbers. Anyone who knows enough about God and scripture has learned that numbers mean things. For instance certain chapters in Psalms such as chptr. 67 or 68 have parralel meanings with the years 1967 & 1968.

1=God or unity





6=Man ( 666 or 3, 6's would mean fullness of man/mark of the beast )

7=complete and perfection ( 7 spirits of God )

8=new beginning ( 199'8' Israel's 1st 50 year jubilee as a nation )

9=Judgement ( 1999, notice the 3, 9's or fulness of judgment )

10=Worldly Government ( Euro Common Market ) ( 10 commandments )

11=disorder or disorganization ( wasn't it 11 Euro nations who met this past weekend to decide on who should run the program )

12=God's perfect Government ( 12 tribes/12foundations ) 12 stones in the breastplate of the priest

1998 - The Glory has departed

The year 1998 is the year the glory has departed. When Eli was 98 years old, Israel was defeated by the Philistines. his two sons were killed in that battle and the ark of the covenant was taken. When Eli their father heard the news he fell over backward and broke his neck and died.

( 1 sam.4:18 ) When the pregnant wife of one of the killed sons in the battle heard the news she went into labor and she died giving birth to a son which she named Ichabod. meaning no glory

She called the boy Ichabod saying, "The glory has departed from Isreal" because the ark of God has been taken.

The loss of the ark of the covenant for Israel represented the loss of the throne of grace. It meant that the Lord no longer protected Isreal. It meant a time of gloom, loss of blessing, and suffering.

What does this mean for 1998? It means loss of glory. Glory represents divine blessing, prosperity, divine good production. Loss of glory means loss of the source of all of this. The year 1998, will be a year of loss of blessing and prosperity. the prosperity that has accumulated will be lost. God is the only source of blessing.

Since 8 means "New Beginning" that doesn't neccesarily always mean the new beginning of something good. Everyone is proclaiming the 50th anniversary as the jubilee and great things are going to happen,

What Jubilee really means is a time when all the land was to be returned back to it's original owner, All the slaves were to be freed, All debts were to be pardoned. In other words it's a redistribution of wealth.

While Israel is celebrating Jubilee in 1998, i believe it's a new beginning of something bad for Israel and for the US. After all the City of NY wherein resides the NYSE is probably the second largest jewish populated area in the world outside of Israel itself. Now...figure it out.

If The tribulation begins in 1999, ( fullness of judgement ) upon the jewish people, and a big percent of those people reside right in the big apple and probably are heavily involved at the NYSE, I believe there are big problems ahead for the US as well as Israel itself.

OK sermon's over, I also heard market commentary the other night that no one has really taken into consideration the effect the drastic cutback in revenue that is taking place in the tobacco industry. For years Govt never wanted to do anything about persuading people to cutback smoking because of the tax $ from cigs. But with all that's unfolding now, there's another stick on the spokes of the american economy.

(Wed May 06 1998 02:12 - ID#22882)
Hallelujah Reverend Goldbug, bless ye Reverend farfel

Ya gotta fight bullshit with bullshit, hallelujah praise the reverend, dowm with the DOW.

(Wed May 06 1998 02:12 - ID#22584)
Sterling falls as Blair hails deal on euro
registration required

Sterling falls as Blair hails deal on euro

EXPORTERS breathed a sigh of relief yesterday as the
pound fell amid speculation that German interest rates will
go up soon to smooth the launch of the euro.

There had been fears that sterling would strengthen after
the "fudge" over the head of the European Central Bank,
and ministers regarded the markets' response as a bonus
as Tony Blair went to the Commons to defend his
handling of the weekend summit.

The Prime Minister told MPs that the much-criticised
arrangements for the ECB presidency would lead to 12
years of stability, and he predicted that the euro would be
a strong currency.

But the attacks on the ECB "horse-trading" continued
unabated and stock markets lost ground in anticipation of
interest rate rises across Europe.

Hans Tietmeyer, President of
the Bundesbank, Europe's
most powerful financial
institution, made his
frustration with politicians
clear to Frankfurt bankers.
He said that the deal - under
which Wim Duisenberg will
be the first ECB president
and then stand down in
favour of a Frenchman after
four years - risked
undermining "the necessary expectation that the euro will
be a really supranational and depoliticised currency".

Traders believe that the Bundesbank will respond by
increasing German interest rates soon to try to guarantee
that the euro is a "hard" currency from the start. That
would force other core EMU members to raise their rates.

The first evidence came yesterday with a surprise rise in
Danish rates, boosting the mark and sending the pound
down nearly two and a half pfennigs to DM2.9412, well
below its nine-year peak of DM3.10, recorded last
month. At the same time, share prices fell: in Frankfurt, the
Dax closed down 111.55 at 5226.20; in Paris shares slid
29.39 to 3944.91, and the FTSE-100 closed 23.8 down
at 5986.5.

In the Commons, Mr Blair pointed to the markets'
reaction as evidence that the fundamentals for the euro
were right. He said that with Mr Duisenberg serving for
four years and Jean-Claude Trichet of the Banque de
France taking over for the next eight, there would be 12
years of stability. The decision was right for Britain and

But William Hague, in one of his most effective Commons
performances as Tory leader, accused Mr Blair of
presiding over a fiasco. Mr Blair had "colluded in the
launch of a fudged and flawed single currency that could
jeopardise people's jobs and investment throughout

Mr Hague went on to tell Mr Blair that when he should
have spoken up, he remained silent. "When he should
have led, he followed. When he should have prepared, he
did not prepare and when he should have done his duty,
he failed in the duty he owed to this country."

The Prime Minister insisted throughout that Mr
Duisenberg - "plainly the right man to launch the euro" -
had not wanted to serve the full eight years. If M Trichet
were confirmed as his successor, it would mean that two
bankers known for their independent views would be in
charge of the ECB for 12 years. "This is long-term

Interesting Times
(Wed May 06 1998 02:12 - ID#423355)
scito (numerology)
"For instance certain chapters in Psalms such as chptr. 67 or 68 have parralel meanings with the years 1967 & 1968."

Well, actually they don't...


(Wed May 06 1998 02:15 - ID#220325)
APH- Thanks for the update on the S&P
I bought two OEX call options June 560's and three July Silver options $6.75. Does silver still look good? you message was received and appreciated, I will reply soon.

(Wed May 06 1998 02:19 - ID#255284)
Your handle, with "us" is an annagram for latin sex====

Be a good little fruitcake and post that drivel on a board where it will be appreciated. It reflects badly on the many fine men and women who embrace Christianity and post here, and offends many of us who embrace neither.

scitologically yours


(Wed May 06 1998 02:19 - ID#340302) brilliant as I know you are...
...I must once again vehemently disagree with your thesis regarding gold equities.

The young fund managers you speak about do NOT touch gold equities today with a 10 foot pole. Only the market iconoclasts ( and they are certainly a distinct minority ) dare invest in such universally despised investments.

When the Great Equities Avalanche occurs, these young fund managers will be dumping mainstream equities...NOT golds. They hardly have any gold equity positions of any consequence to save themselves.

Moreover, once these young pups are discredited by virtue of their erroneous market predictions and equities choices, then the small investors will repudiate their Wall Street Mutual Funds Gods and run to seek shelter in those investments once deprecated by their former Gods, most notably gold and gold equities.

It truly will be the biblical equivalent of the scene that unfolded at Mt. Sinai when the Israelis, believing Moses had proved to be a false prophet, rejected all his teachings and instructions, rebelling in wild indulgence and rampant hedonism that culminated in the erection of the Golden Calf.

Can you not see this?



(Wed May 06 1998 02:20 - ID#340302)
@EXPLORER...thank you, my friend... remembered your favorite Reverend.

Bless Ye.



(Wed May 06 1998 02:31 - ID#173274)
@the scene
Scito -- You Are MOST ABSOLUTELY CORRECT that the revenue from taxation of tobacco has changed! Yup! really changed. Changed from simple taxation to outright ROBBERY!!! AND they are doing it for the 'protection' of children. HAR! GIVE ME A BREAK! They are doing it for the MONEY!!!!

(Wed May 06 1998 02:42 - ID#247190)
No Offense intended
I mean no offense to anyone. If you truly are Christians out there then you know what I posted is the truth, And it all ties in with the things that are happening right now. Wake up! It's a reality.

If you are not a christian and you feel I've posted fraudulantly, I am only reinforcing the beliefs of evryone that posts here. The economy's gonna crumble and Gold's gonna rise. How I choose to surmise my opinion

is no less credible or different than a fundamentalist or a technical or astrology. It's not numerology, It's the bible, full of truth about history, present and future. My post was on the subject of why I believ in the Gold Bull of 98 and 99. numerology lives by a whole different set of definitions applied to numbers than what I described.

It just adds variety and color to the topic at hand. GOLD

(Wed May 06 1998 02:47 - ID#173274)
@the scene
Scito -- No offense here. I hope I didn't offend either. The basis of my last post was simply taxes vs. outright theft. And I'm sure it won't be limited to just tobacco in the future. Name anything that 'can' harm people. 'Anything' is thus open for the same 'treatment'. As for 'numerology' or whatever. Can't comment.

(Wed May 06 1998 02:48 - ID#31868)
mozel - re:1:22
perhaps when people in the United States realize that the FRN's are evil things which rob the best wishes they have for their children. I understand that is a weak answer, such is the question that it is above me, at this moment, to create an answer which is as deserving and or on the same level upon which the question was formulated.

Regarding the last comment in your previous post, I appreciate the thought was to say that there are no holes so large that I will not dive in after the rats matter the odds, the bigger the rat, the more satisfying the rout.

(Wed May 06 1998 02:54 - ID#248180)
@ Scito 02:05- Numerology & "Truly Christian"
I am a practising Christian and your Numerology offends me.
My camel says that Psalms 67 & 68 means 1767 & 1768 or 1867 & 1868.
How good are you at camel speak. If I recall an ass once talked to a man in the Old Testiment, so my camel speaking should not surprise you.
1,2,3,4,goin to have ANOTHER Pour. Ah how sweet it is. Golden drops

(Wed May 06 1998 02:58 - ID#255284)

A gentleman indeed. Yes, I see your point of view. Pardon my rash offensiveness. If you can shed light on the markets you are welcome. In a very real sense of the word, noone is omniscient who posts here. We can each learn a little from the postings, and sometimes the lessons come from unexpected quarters.

It sometimes seems there is a division amongst us mortals: there are those who believe the history of the world is written - and the future is therefore accessable by some machination or learning or technique; and there are those who believe nothing is pre-ordained, nothing of the future is knowable, the world makes itself.

I fall into the latter camp, but like the former, it is predicated upon a belief system.

(Wed May 06 1998 03:00 - ID#247190)
No Offense intended was meant for Aurator
Apparently I ruffled his feathers a bit. I've been lurking on this site for quite a few months. I'm new to the whole futures scene and as I posted before that I have learned things here. Thanks to all

I just wanted to throw in another angle that all here have made reference to at one time or another and that was GOD. Boy people get uptight about that one tho. I figure some will find it intersting and others may not. Just skip over the posts you don't like, that's what I do

(Wed May 06 1998 03:00 - ID#31868)
aurator - Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm
Well said...

John Disney__A
(Wed May 06 1998 03:06 - ID#24135)
Be kind to Camels
For Scito/ Junior
My camel is so p!ssed off she wont speak
to me. Take it easy Scito. Even my
dogs were offended.

(Wed May 06 1998 03:09 - ID#227238)
Scito: I'm sure you meant well but some hereabouts are not a part of your belief system. Speaking for myself, I would have to hustle like hell just to be considered apostate.

(Wed May 06 1998 03:19 - ID#255284)
apoplectic apostacy
Earl your 03:09
I have an inkling you couldn't be bothered. ;- )

(Wed May 06 1998 03:19 - ID#248180)
@J. Disney - Camels, Dogs & Numbers
Good day Brother John, just stopped in to check the chat on PM's and stumbled on some dribble. I could not resist the challenge. Must be the Russian in me. I can offer some assistance for your dogs. Camels are harder customers. We Russians including the great Pavlov and his dogs thingie, train our dogs using charts of Christian Numbers please remember the Numbers cannot be Heathen Numbers only Christian Numbers. Your dogs should respond. Camels unlike horses can be lead to water but they will only drink vodka & pickle brine. Cheers mate
I am off to a late meeting- will return in about 6 hours.

(Wed May 06 1998 03:21 - ID#153102)
ALBERICH__A ( @mozel: My initial reaction to your post from 4:30 this
morning... ) ID#254112:
Copyright  1998 ALBERICH__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
..was: the most important thing for Americans to survive in the future
is to forbid any further law and to nullify all existing laws.

*** Shall we then send a message to God saying,"Your Law given by Moses and the Christ is hereby repealed by us" ? ( I think that is the "scientific" political law solution which has been underway for some time now. ) Here is a fact. The common-law cannot be repealed except by repealing the Law of Moses and the Christ and destroying all American Constitutions. All liberties, immunities, and rights in American law stand on the foundations of the common-law which derives its authority not merely from reason, custom, and ancient foundations of experience with human nature, but also from its agreement with the Law given in Judeo-Christian scripture. It is our heritage of practical moral knowledge for a rule of just decision. It accords with common sense. All of the political law needs repealing, that's for sure.

Maybe that's also true for all the legal systems in European countries,
but there it seems that law is based on more outdated principles but
having a milder, less dangerous role in society.

***All of the European "legal systems" derive from Justinian's Code ( an imperial or martial law code ) and they all incorporate the Roman legal concept of status ( persona ) because Europe is still status-ridden, still has Kings and Lords and other people born to higher status. There is nothing benign about that. Everything done by Hitler was legal according to German law ( political law ) , you know.

But before I continue to persue such radical conclusions I'd like to ask
for your advice how I can study best the principals of American law,
means the political and legal philosophy of the founding fathers, and
after that the most important forces which have caused to bend and turn
things around until America reached the legal mess in which we see this
society today.

***The debt owed to the Chase Bank in 1866 is the turning point. From that came the Legal Tender cases. From that eventually came the Federal Reserve System. From it also came the 14th Amendment which gave corporations federal legal protection from the States and which opened the door to federal judical rule over the States. The Democratic Socialist Revolution of FDR wiped out capitalism and created Corporate Socialism, spawning Global Corporate Socialism ( UN, IMF, & World Bank ) and multi-nationals; it also converted the States into Socialist Corporate subdivisions of the federal via agreements for benefits paid in greenbacks. The Nixon Reorganizations put the government ( federal and state ) more on a martial law footing where it remains.

*** Order Lesson #11 ( Law, Its Origin, Nature, and Development ) and Lesson 17 Constitutional Law Part1 Definitions and General Principles Lesson 18 Constitutional Law Organization and Powers of the United States Government and Lesson 19 Constitutional Law Constitutional Guaranties of Fundamental Rights. The lessons cost $15 or $20 each. Order from RDJ Botty W4013 4th Ave Rt 2 Box 2231 Spooner Wisconsin 54801 Tel 715 635 9569. The lessons and the references mentioned in them will give you a sound foundation.
Have not checked this link lately though.

***On yours below, the original legal concept is not destroyed in America. People know something is wrong with the government. They are just too ignorant of law to know what. Well, learning is the only cure for ignorance. People will either learn or pay the price of ignorance.

***There is no question that nation and race are hardly distinguisible concepts. Read Vattel. There is no question that government has been systematically by force imposing a completely artificial idea of nation on the people since the late 1960's. That which is unnatural can only be sustained by force. "the politically correct prohibiton of acceptance of races, is truly a kind of dangerous racism." I would say "politically correct" is the tyranny of political law. The people at large are being cut off from their heritage and destroyed as a people. I'm afraid separate, but equal was as good a rule of decision as is possible between races in the same polity and when they left that standard, they opened pandora's box. They have certainly undertaken an experiment unique in the history of the world, with the possible exception of the USSR. That experiment ruined a lot of lives and I have grave doubts about this one.

Maybe it was the impossibility to come to grips with a variety of social
and ethnically rooted concepts, which cannot be brought together.
For instance: when I lived in Berlin, a few decades ago, I had a friend
from Tansania, who grew up in this country under British colonial rule.
I learned very interesting things from him. For instance, he went to a
kind if an elite school which was run by Brits, and the students
received physical punishment ( i.e., they were beaten ) if they were
caught of speaking their native language on the school yard or in the
But the most interesting thing in this connection is the following. He
described to me the family structure in which he gre up. In the terms of
a sociologist, it would be characterized as "martiarchial, polygamous.
His mother had about seven children from different fathers. The brothers
of the females, his uncle, played the male role in the family. The males
in the family are always the uncles of the children. The children have
no concept or understanding of what we, in European societies, call
The females have temporarily intense relationships to one man at a time.
When a child results from such a relationship, the joy is great in the
family and the child is accepted by its half-sibblings and the mother
and her brother ( s ) .
Now: how would you get such a concept together with a society, where the
expectation ( maybe genetically predetermined ) is: lifelong love
between male and female and the resulting family structure with all
consequences of laws, hetitage laws and so on.
I wouldn't like to suppress the Tansanian family structure, but I also
wouldn't like to disturb the European family structure by denying it's
roots. ( Helping the liberals to destroy our concept of family values. )
And now think: there are not only the concepts of
martriarchal-polygamous societies, where the mother plays the absolute
dominant role, and the brothers have teir duties. There are also
patriarchally structured societies, polygamous ones and monogamous ones.
How do you get such important mating concepts, which might be
predetermined by genetically different tendencies, which again
predetermine a possible harmony between sucoscious and cognitive
conditions of wellbeing, how can all these differences come under one
roof of one society?
Philosophically, I do not have a problem with variety. Because I tend to
believe, that the different genetic structure of different human races
carries and shows the handwriting of the creator. And we should become
aware of His handwriting and honor it.
Viewed under this philosophical concept, the politically correct
prohibiton of acceptance of races, is truly a kind of dangerous racism.
But I wrote this now because I'm speculating, what might have destroyed
the original legal concept in America. I'm not sure. Before I judge, I'd
like to study.
Alberich the Dwarf

(Wed May 06 1998 03:36 - ID#284255)
Far from brilliant - I'm just a chatter-bug

I don't see it at all.

You have to look beyond the shores of the US
A global perspective.

What of all the global funds?

Ever bought a prospectus? Seen a AGM report.
Look on the back page and see who owns the largest %'s.

It's always the funds.

There are thousands of global mining company's
With trillions of shares.

Who do you think holds the majority of those shares?
Us few souls on Kitco?

Ha! We wouldn't amount to 1/2 a percent of the total.

Think again on who owns those trillions of PM equity shares.
Look in the back of a prospectus.
Look in the back of a AGM yearbook.
I have annual reports on about 50% of OZ miners here at home.
I have done my homework.
The greater majority/% of shares in most companies
Are held by groups and institutions.

Of all those young managers
Most have never seen a correction.

Now what do you think they would do in a crash?

Don't think like you think.
Think like they think
And think what they would cast aside,
What they would sell.
Knowing what they know.
Not what you know.

Climb off the mountain and look around ( ;-? ) -

(Wed May 06 1998 03:42 - ID#284255)
Asia today
Indonesia -5.35%
Sth Korea -3.97%
Malaysia -3.7%
Philippines -2.47%
Japan -2.29%

All is well.
Dow upcrash?

(Wed May 06 1998 03:53 - ID#227238)
Aurator: Insomnia and nocturnal malaise. I think. ...... Enjoying the company of my 1 YO granddaughter all day, puts some of this into a different perspective. I think it's called mellowing out. ...... Besides you're more than capable of seizing the cudgel and mounting a sound defense against brain pollution. ...... BTW, how's the power situation down there? Has it improved any? Let me know if another shipment of candles is required. ; )

(Wed May 06 1998 03:54 - ID#153102)
Of course, you are correct about the funds' scope of ownership. But, aren't these specialized PM funds ? The managers don't have a choice between IBM and a mining co. It's either mining co. or cash or possibly bullion. I'm of a mind that POG will be a greater factor than what non-POG equities are doing. But, I'm muddle headed about this.

(Wed May 06 1998 03:55 - ID#247190)
To All
Just go ahead and save my 1st post to your hard drive and go back and read it again in a couple of months and then cast your judgement upon me.

save this post and go back and read it in about 3-4 years and see if I am a liar.

Rev 6:6

6 And I heard a voice in the midst of the four beasts say, A measure of wheat for a penny, and three measures of barley for a penny;

( KJV )

A measure of wheat ( 1 quart ) for a penny ( could mean anywhere from 1-3 and a half days wages. ) This should not be so hard to believe as we see on the news the rations of rice as little as one ounce to North Korea.

Again it's just one persons perspective on the life ahead as I see it.

Again it just reinforces our belief in why your all here discussing GOLD. So why do you all choose to trample on me. I'm not tearing down your philosophies on life and your views on what lies ahead.

If I told you I read it in my crystal ball or saw it in the stars, or Nastrdomas said it, you'd all be OOOhhh!!! AAAAGHHH! But tell you what the Bible says and right away everybody has a problem.

Just more fuel to the fire and proof all the more that we're in the last days.

(Wed May 06 1998 04:08 - ID#227238)
Will they dump or ..... won't they.
Sharefin: Perhaps, the measure of the debate should also include a consideration of first causes. If the nature or source of fear is of a traditional kind, I believe they will dump faster than we can wipe. OTOH, if the fund managers are frightened by some of the same things that we discuss everyday, does it not make some sense that PM's may be held for precisely the reason they were ( said to be ) purchased in the first place? That is for some protection against the unforseen.

Unfortunately, the Dump Conjecture must be added to the growing list of those which preceded it. ....... and await the arrival of empirical data when it happens. Helluva way to run a railroad.

(Wed May 06 1998 04:11 - ID#153102)
Any day could be your last day.

(Wed May 06 1998 04:12 - ID#413109)
Have said it before and think it worth repeating, The NIKKEI looks like
a good "BUY" with a stop at 1450 or so. The reason I've been mentioning
this is there's got to be some trader's resoning to confirm or deny that
this looks like a good deal. Next question, why after 8 years of down
does this market look interesting, while europe and the US markets look
like tops???
It may say something about the future of the far east and ???

(Wed May 06 1998 04:25 - ID#284255)
I don't know about the US
But here in OZ, lots of the major shareholders
Are bank and insurance trust funds - investment holdings.
Lots of shares held by ANZ, FAI, NAB, AMP atc

But there are also numerous cross holdings
Between the mining companies.

(Wed May 06 1998 04:30 - ID#290118)
cash vs gold
Champion of Tax: Your right. Regardless of whether I invest sale proceeds back in the business as inventory or buy beer and piss it away the current year taxes are the same. When I sell the inventory later I can piss away the proceeds tax free ( except for the profit, if any, on the later sale ) . Guess I was under the illusion/hope and investing back in the business would be more tax advantageous. Thanks for making me think.
The only out is buying inventory for cash or gold and selling it for cash or gold.

(Wed May 06 1998 04:31 - ID#227238)
Scito: Neither you nor I understand why you persist in this but I fear you are in danger of severely taxing the amiability of "ship's company". As the envelope is stretched, unpleasant reactions may be expected to ensue.

Please trust me on this, you obviously know your Bible and I know my fellow heathens. An uncommonly rowdy lot they are. Absolutely without common decency or fine regard for the things that you hold near and dear. Without putting too fine a point on it; are you familiar with the term: concubine? Sends shivers through my mellow soul, just to think of it.

In the meantime, those of a Greater Faith have not only committed it to their sanctimonious hard drives but likely to personal memory as well. As well, they have emailed copies to their ministers and friends. Now, as we speak, they are diligently filling in the fractional leftovers not included in your integer based analysis. But, I'll bet, sly dog that you are, you intended to leave it unfinished that the faithful will have something constructive to occupy them until sunup. ...... and the unfaithful will continue to wonder ...... why?

(Wed May 06 1998 04:35 - ID#284255)
I doubt that many of the thoughts here are expressed elsewhere.
We are truly a unique group.

Doom and gloomers or
Far fetched forward thinkers
Call us what you may.

ANZ is a major holder of many shares in many PM companies in OZ.
A very high number of companies I might add,
There have fingers in many pies.
Their holdings range from 1% to 10%+ in these many companies.

Well ANZ has $14 billion exposure to Asia
Out of a total asset base of $130 billion

Safe? Think again.

Now what of ANZ's derivatives exposure?

I would guess that this is normal procedure.
Amongst many of the major houses.

I am not convinced that they are safe and secure.

(Wed May 06 1998 04:35 - ID#252391)
Do you know where your gold is tonight
Fortunately its hasn't gone very far. One wonders how long it can hang around at these levels and not get itch to go wandering. It may initially be confused in direction and go south then turn around and go north, fooling those who follow its first footsteps. Doesn't look like it will climb any walls of worry. Fact is with all that's going on there's enough for us all to worry about that gold should be a treasrued asset not loaned orleased or short sold. Yet there seem at this time to be an equal size number of the opposite mind.

Little bounce in the Platinum metals - that's encourageing but the sentiment in my heart and that on this board seems to be that board, and that may indeed by the best sign.

(Wed May 06 1998 04:40 - ID#227238)
Reify: Where does the Nikkei stand, on a percentage basis, relative to the ultimate DOW low in the '30s? Should it not expect the same fate? ie, a 90% retracement. With a bounce or two along the way.

(Wed May 06 1998 04:45 - ID#153102)
There is a lot of credence given hereabouts to the theories of Ping which foretell ill for Nikkei. That's the only reason I know nobody has seconded your trading idea.

(Wed May 06 1998 04:46 - ID#227238)
Sharefin: Your thesis is well made. My only point was that the nature of the threat or threats to the MF's sense of well being may be such that the managers see their best interest lies in the direction of hanging on to PM shares. ...... I am concerned about the whole business as well.

(Wed May 06 1998 04:57 - ID#153102)
Going away now to worry about the Oz breed in my PM kennel. Arf. Arf. ( credits to TED )

(Wed May 06 1998 05:18 - ID#252391)
Will silver be a $5 commodity...
before the sun sets on Wall Street, today. Watch for the 10am NY opening to be a downer. Come on bulls ....

(Wed May 06 1998 05:37 - ID#413109)
Date: Wed May 06 1998 04:40
Earl ( ) ID#227238:
Reify: Where does the Nikkei stand, on a percentage basis, relative to the ultimate DOW low in the '30s?
Should it not expect the same fate? ie, a 90% retracement. With a bounce or two along the way.
When I origionally started to plot the NIKKEI, and watched the down
move unfold, I anticipated another leg to between 7-11,000. Now after
years of sideways action, I had looked back at the Dow in the 1930's
and saw a similarity in patterns. I'm not saying it may not go down and
everything will be washed out, and the 90 % retracement may not occur,
what I am seeing is a testing of the recent lows, and a lot of negative
news, and no break. So from a trading, or even and investment strategy
wouldn't this be an ideal place to place a bet? The risk is minimal, as
if the lows don't hold you have a short term loss.

As for Mozel's Ping, please forgive me for not knowing what is Ping.
heard of Yin and Yan, but not ping and pang.

(Wed May 06 1998 05:37 - ID#284255)
C.I.A. - What's their Url?
Just watched on TV a report put out by the CIA
This report was very damning
And was totally about Y2K and its causes and effects.

Anyone here have any links to CIA reports?

I would like to read it.

(Wed May 06 1998 05:59 - ID#206358)
What a colours.....
All Ordinaries
Shanghai Composite
Hong Kong
Hang Seng
BSE 30
Jakarta Composite
Nikkei 225
KLSE Composite
New Zealand
Karachi 100
May 5
PSE Composite
Straits Times
South Korea
Seoul Composite
Sri Lanka
All Share
Taiwan Weighted

(Wed May 06 1998 05:59 - ID#284255)
There is still very bearish sentiment on the Nikkei
It is still falling and I have seen expectations that it will
At least test its past lows and possibly breach them.
Their 'Big Bang' has just begun.
I feel that one should wait to see how this current retest fares.

'Ping' refers to the oscillational size of a correction.
As in the 'Ping' of the Dow in Oct'97 was 550 points.
'Ping II' should be larger than 'Ping I'
We have yet to see.

Japan banks start calling time on elderly advisers

(Wed May 06 1998 06:05 - ID#290118)
rears its ugly head. Proselytising on this forum is not appropriate - but my scroll bar works fine. We spend an enormous chunk of Bart's bandwidth on Y2K, Euro, Asian flu, etc. because we feel they may be major shocks to the world's economy. But even if we don't believe the various prophecies, we should consider that many people ARE influenced by these beliefs - and they hold stock - directly or indirectly. When they start to get shook up the markets will feel it especially if a fair number of those people flee from paper to GOLD. We need to read the mood of the market. People's beliefs and fears, grounded in fact or not, affect that mood.

(Wed May 06 1998 06:07 - ID#284255)
HK stocks close lower, sentiment still bearish
``There has been nothing but more confirmation on the slowing economy and a lot of fear that the external environment will remain quite treacherous for months to come,'

Investors focused on shaky markets in the region.

In Jakarta, stocks were down more than five percent on fears that riots in the North Sumatran city of Medan could spread to other parts of Indonesia, brokers said.

``Hong Kong fares much better than our neighbours, After this rebound I think we should still head lower."

``I think people are not hurting enough, they are only losing a little bit of money because they are buying the market back up from the bottom,''

``Blue chip selling has not really come in that much yet, but I suspect some time in this quarter it will.''

``There are still fundamentally sound stocks that will ride out the crisis and actually benefit from what will happen in the aftermath of the crisis,'' Fernow said.

``Once the property market bottoms then you have a case for a rally in those stocks which I would think would be quite pronounced. But we may have to wait until later in the year before that happens.''

(Wed May 06 1998 06:13 - ID#284255)
Outokumpu to issue statement on Chile mine
Finnish mining and metals group Outokumpu said on Tuesday it would issue a statement later in the day on unconfirmed reports that it was selling its 50 percent stake in the Zaldivar copper mine in Chile.

Yen mired against dollar and mark, bearishness mounts
Concern about Japan's economy and financial sector grew after Koichi Kato, a member of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, said on Tuesday more financial institutions could fail.

``The Asian situation has become more uncertain with the recent developments in Indonesia so we could see dollar/yen move back towards 135,''

``I would rather be a seller than a buyer of yen this morning,''

(Wed May 06 1998 06:16 - ID#284255)
Nikkei ends lower on Japan, Asia concerns
TOKYO, May 6 ( Reuters ) - Tokyo stocks ended sharply lower on Wednesday due to increasing worries over the Japanese economy and concerns over the economic and social situations in other Asian countries, brokers said.

Comments by a senior official from Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party ( LDP ) on tax cuts and banks, recent announcements of poor earnings by Japanese firms and a Japanese credit-rating agency's cut in its debt ratings on construction firms worsened market sentiment, brokers said.

Brokers said large-lot selling in the futures market, possibly by foreign hedge funds, helped dampen the market mood in the morning and push down the Nikkei by more than three percent by midday, but buying on dips and buy backs emerged in the afternoon to provide some support to the index.

Irie also said investors were viewing poor corporate earnings as a potential risk to the Tokyo market.

``If more companies announce large extraordinary losses, the Nikkei could fall further,'' Irie said.

``In addition to that, the crisis in Asia has not eased,'' Ichio said.

``Selling increased due to worries over political and social uncertainty in Indonesia,'' Okasan Securities chief strategist Tetsuya Ishijima said, blaming the Indonesian situation for a drop in bank issues. Japanese banks have extended a huge amount of loans to Indonesia and any deterioration in their business could affect their lending to Japanese companies.

While brokers said they did not expect any factors to emerge any time soon to greatly improve the market mood, they said they were paying attention to possible buying by public funds that may keep share prices from further sharp declines.

Major European nations' agreement last weekend to launch a single currency next year had little influence on stock trading on the Tokyo market, brokers said.

(Wed May 06 1998 06:18 - ID#284255)
With economy on skids, JGBs chart new territory

From here, Japanese government bonds ( JGBs ) move into the ether.

(Wed May 06 1998 06:20 - ID#284255)
Japan economy not in deflationary phase -- BOJ

Asked if Japan's prolonged easy credit stance was a factor behind the surge in U.S. share prices, Yamaguchi said data did not show that Japan's low interest rates were pushing down U.S. interest rates. The data did not show any large capital outflows from Japan to U.S. stocks, either, he added.

``The gradual decline in U.S. interest rates is partly a result of factors such as a shrinking fiscal deficit and stable prices,'' Yamaguchi said.

(Wed May 06 1998 06:24 - ID#284255)
SKorea union threatens strikes in late May or June

The union, South Korea's second largest labour umbrella group with over 500,000 members, said it did not agree with government efforts to attract foreign investment.

``We do not agree with government efforts to attract foreign investment as a way to overcome the economic crisis,'' it said in a statement.

``Foreign capital... will worsen employment and wage conditions, and contribute to increasing job insecurity,'' it said.

(Wed May 06 1998 06:27 - ID#284255)
S.Korea 1998 GDP growth target cut in IMF review
SEOUL, May 6 ( Reuters ) - South Korea said on Wednesday it has agreed with the International Monetary Fund to lower this year's real gross domestic product growth target for calendar 1998 to minus one percent from one percent or less.

The revised GDP and current account targets were some of the revisions made in the IMF's quarterly review of Seoul's implementation of economic reforms mandated under terms of a $58.35 billion bailout package.

The review statement also said South Korea was determined not to use ``public funds'' in bailing out companies and would push ahead with restructuring of the local corporate sector.

The review also kept the M3 money supply growth target for the second quarter of this year at the previously set 14.1 percent.

Seoul had been pressing hard for a further reduction in rates that climbed to more than 30 percent after the IMF programme was agreed in December but have since fallen to an average of 17.9 percent.

(Wed May 06 1998 06:34 - ID#284255)
Gold to rise to $350 in 1999 - SSB analyst

LIMA, May 5 ( Reuters ) - The average price of gold should rise to $350 in 1999, a senior analyst at Salomon Smith Barney said Tuesday.

``Our average price for 1999 is $350 an ounce,'' Leanne Baker, chief gold analyst at Salomon Smith Barney, told a gold industry conference in Peru.

``At the moment we think suppliers are just aiming to survive the problems with gold, so many of them will sell as soon as they see an opportunity. However, we also believe that this is a natural phenomenon for the gold price and that the tendency in the medium term is towards stability,'' she said.

George Milling-Stanley, chief market analyst at the World Gold Council, also told the conference the price would stabilize.

``The current perception is that central banks are going to be selling. But we can observe that the countries which have sold -- Canada, Belgium, Argentina, Australia and the Netherlands -- have not sold for quite a while and on top of that only two are European,'' he said.

(Wed May 06 1998 06:36 - ID#252391)
Squirel, excuse me but what did you say??
I don't think the metal markets or the mining shares reflect very much persuasion has occurred here of the unbelieving. May be the short term course of the market that our band as done its own no good and we all should have been selling, OR I could be wrong, and this support group information sharing forum is just what we all needed to keep the faith.

The way I see it: patience, blind patience, ignorant patience will pay the greatest rewards....

Fortunately, I feel conscience free to expound, fiquiring nobody with very much at stake is going to be moved by what I have said. And hell I don't care.

(Wed May 06 1998 06:45 - ID#393224)
Nick@sixth heaven.

Date: Tue May 05 1998 23:47
sharefin ( Eldorado - something smelly in the air? ) ID#284255:
Yes, things do not seem right
Indonesia down 5% now

They have a choice coming now;
Do they throw more funds in, to support - prop the markets?
Or do they let it go it's own way.

For them to prop it now
Means another leg higher
From where the fall will be greater.

Once fear enters the arena
Watch how fast it spreads.
Faster than fire
With the exits non-existent

Beware and bewarned
ALL paper will hurt
Gold shares included

But there'll be bargains galore at the bottom
What a buying opportunity

Nick@C will be in seventh heaven

Not long to go now. Aussies are going to Bali and getting a luxury room for peanuts. Second Asian downwave on the way?? Rioting in Indonesia today is not a good sign. These people were in extremely dire straits last time I was there. I feel for them. What is missed by all of us ( for lack of a better phrase ) 'fat cats' out there ( with our comfy homes, plenty to eat, and major worry being to make enough on pm's to buy a new car ) is that our Asian neighbours are suffering severe hardships right now. As Mahathir said today ( to paraphrase ) -- 'the West has stolen half of our wealth'. The US is not the flavour of the month in Asia. The ferryman will one day have to be paid.

(Wed May 06 1998 06:53 - ID#26793)
Yen under pressure from the Euro

(Wed May 06 1998 06:56 - ID#26793)
Another sign of pressure within the Fed on Greenspan?

(Wed May 06 1998 07:00 - ID#26793)
IMF changes its strategy on South Korea

(Wed May 06 1998 07:01 - ID#286199)
Rubin is hinting at something?
May 6, 1998

Rubin Urges Investors to Study The Stock Market With Rigor


WASHINGTON -- Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin, though careful not to assert that the stock market is overvalued, urged investors to employ more "rigor" in evaluating the market's current level.

"I think in good times people tend not to be very rigorous in terms of how they go about the process" of evaluating whether the stock market is
appropriately valued, given the economic outlook, he said in an interview Tuesday with The Wall Street Journal and CNBC. "Rigor is always appropriate when investing in markets, whatever the ultimate conclusions may be."

The former investment banker said any examination of the stock market involves two questions. The first: Where is the economy going? "Far and
away the most likely scenario is a continuation of solid growth and low inflation," he answered. "The second question is, whatever your assumption may be about the economy, how do you believe the market is valued relative to the economy?"

And what does he think on that key question? "I don't think the secretary of the Treasury should respond on that particular issue," Mr. Rubin said with characteristic caution. Top administration and Federal Reserve officials privately express concern about the stock market's remarkable
rise, but they are careful what they say in public for fear of being blamed for triggering a market crash. In Tuesday's interview, Mr. Rubin also reiterated the U.S. view that Japan's latest fiscal stimulus package
is "a very positive step," but cautioned that "implementation is key." He added, "What they need to do is not depend on the yen falling to generate
export-led demand, but just the opposite. What they need to do is generate domestic demand-led growth."

Mr. Rubin's remarks that Japan shouldn't rely on a weakening yen pressured the dollar. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, meanwhile, pulled back from Monday's record to close at 9147.57, down 45.09, and a
bond-market decline pushed the 30-year Treasury yield back up toward the 6% mark, at 5.98%.

Separately, President Clinton met Tuesday afternoon for about an hour with Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan at the White House's invitation. It was their first official face-to-face meeting since January 1997, two months before the Fed last raised short-term interest rates. The pair met more frequently earlier in the Clinton administration. The purpose was "to exchange views on the national economy," said White House spokesman Michael McCurry. Officials had no immediate comment after the talks.

Word of the session, which also included Mr. Rubin and Vice President Al Gore, sparked speculation that the Fed chairman might be alerting the president to the possibility of an interest-rate increase later this
year -- unless the economy slows down soon. As reported earlier, Fed officials at their March 31 meeting agreed that their next move was more likely to be a rate increase than a rate decrease and, in speeches and interviews, officials have begun to talk about the possibility of a rate increase.

Earlier in the day, Michel Camdessus, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, told a conference in Melbourne, Australia, that the U.S. will have to act soon on interest rates to curb its
"exuberant" stock market. "They will have to move sooner rather than later; the question is to know when," he said.

In contrast to some other meetings between Mr. Clinton and Mr. Greenspan, word of this one was announced to White House reporters in advance by
Mr. McCurry, apparently to combat a report that the two men were going to meet with bankers.

Mr. Rubin, who is periodically rumored to be contemplating stepping down, said he plans to remain in his job "for quite some time."

Asked if that means he expects to continue as Treasury secretary through the end of this year, Mr. Rubin said, "I most certainly do."

(Wed May 06 1998 07:03 - ID#26793)
Japanese credit crunch did not ease as was expected.

(Wed May 06 1998 07:15 - ID#26793)
S&P downgrades Columbia

(Wed May 06 1998 07:16 - ID#238295)
View from Singapore: Party ending soon

OPINION-The U.S. interest rate policy dilemma

By Chua Soon Hock, Chief Strategist, Sanwa Bank Singapore

SINGAPORE, May 6 - The Federal Reserve's interest rate policy is in a bind as it contends with the twin phenomenon of
low consumer price index ( CPI ) inflation, but escalating asset prices in the form of equity and real estate valuations.

In this policy dilemma, what should be the sensible approach to ensure long-term economic growth without allowing the
asset bubble to develop further, threatening the global economy?

In examining factors contributing to the low CPI inflation in recent years, strong competition in goods and services in the
global marketplace, coupled with restrained domestic wages ( not including employee share options ) have been significant.

However, another central but less publicised component has been the overall strength of the dollar -- particularly against the
yen -- over the past few years. This has fueled the economy with cheap imports, industrial inputs and cheap yen financing
through the interbank market.

It is the coming together of all three factors -- global competition, restrained nominal wages and dollar strength -- which
have allowed for a sustained period of low CPI amid a spectacular bull run in asset prices, especially the S&P.

Yet the current situation is unsustainable as continued dollar strength will further increase the growing trade deficit with
Japan and Asia, expected to become a serious political issue by this summer.

This, coupled with a likely Japanese economic recovery, due to effects of significant stimulative packages, is expected to
exert strong downward pressure on the dollar.

With the prospect of a weaker dollar around the corner, the likelihood of continued low CPI inflation and foreign capital
inflows is greatly reduced. The Fed will in turn be forced to raise rates to stem outflows as 43 percent of outstanding U.S.
government debt of $2.8 trillion is held by foreigners.

Even assuming that the trade deficit issue does not come to the forefront and the US dollar remains strong in the foreseeable
future, can the Fed ignore the rising asset prices and focus its interest rate policy solely on low CPI inflation?

Such a course of action has an alarming and nearly identical precedent in the spectacular Japanese bubble economy of the
late 1980's that ended in early 1990.

Between 1986 and 1990, Japan was faced with strong yen, low CPI inflation and soaring asset markets -- just as in the
United States today. The BOJ was too slow to curb lending and asset prices, leading to extreme leverage and the
subsequent Tokyo stockmarket crash.

Today, the low CPI is fuelling sky-high investor confidence in the United States, resulting in highly-leveraged stock and
bond trading, excessive lending, property speculation and strings of mega-mergers.

CPI viewed together with asset inflation would give a more accurate picture of overall inflation in a modern society.

To argue that retirement funds invested in high share prices, together with high housing costs, do not affect actual
purchasing power now and in the future is to ignore reality. Housing and the management of retirement funds are probably
the two items with the biggest financial impact on any U.S. household today.

The Fed will find it extremely difficult to pour cold water on a great bull run in which everyone is seemingly getting rich.
The greater the bubble, the more numerous the self-interests -- especially from Wall Street brokers -- seeking to perpetuate
the status quo.

Yet short term, sectoral interests should not be allowed to overwhelm long-term considerations, or sober realities.

The truth is that this party is due to end. The longer the drunkeness, the more painful will be the hangover. The current
parallels with events leading up to the Crash of 1929 almost 70 years earlier are ominous ( see Footnotes ) .

It is time for the Fed to appreciate the perils of the current highly leveraged situation and act now to prevent a calamitous
crash as occurred in 1929 and Japan in 1990 -- before it is too late.

The Fed should move to gently restrain the excessive levels of bank lending and rein in the exuberant bull market. The
writing is on the wall: record PE ratios, faltering earnings, and still soaring stock prices. The psychological money game
has gone too far.

Moderation is the theme for the moment. Otherwise, the dreams of yet another generation may well be crushed. Can lessons
be learnt, or will the 90's close out with the same old story of greed and despair?

(Wed May 06 1998 07:19 - ID#26793)
Russia may delay PGM exports until the end of Summer.

(Wed May 06 1998 07:24 - ID#26793)
Overcapacity is clearly a major problem in the car industry. (Not news at Kitco

(Wed May 06 1998 07:42 - ID#333127)
regarding russianpl/pt supplies or lack of same
Someone posted yesterday nonbelief in what the press reports out of Russia. I also don't put much belief in what they say.

(Wed May 06 1998 07:52 - ID#254201)
SnP & Silver
Snowbird + If you took last nights trade ( 5/6, 00:36 ) you should be long from approx. 1116.50 move your stop up to breakeven and sell above 1136.00 today. Silver has turned out to be a big disappointment in this time frame. If its going to make any kind of decent advance by mid month it has to get going now. A close under 6.00 could easily send it back to 5.50. I've cut back my silver position to 1/3. We sit and wait.

(Wed May 06 1998 07:58 - ID#215208)
For those that didn't catch my post yesterday, a gigantic pennant has formed in silver, with a base exceeding $2.00 that started forming way back in January. It is approaching the apex. In a situation like this the price can break either way. A steep down channel can also be envisioned, using the recent peaks a the channel top. Today's overnight action in silver, together with the weakness in the other metals, suggests the break may to the down side, and it may break fast.

My gut tells me that this may be a bad day for all the metals.

We'll see.

(Wed May 06 1998 08:15 - ID#284255)
Charts to peruse
Dow Industrials
Dow Transports
Dow Utilities
European Indices
European Indices
Hang Seng & Nikkei
Swing Chart
Mutual Fund Cash levels

The Dow Industrials look to be topping out. The next few days should confirm this.
The Dow Transports look to be breaking their one year uptrend. Momentum falling fast. Very weak.
The Dow Utilities looks to have recently put in a small head and shoulders and is failing, off the right shoulder.

The SP500 also putting in a top.

Most of the European indices are showing consolidation after their recent falls from their tops.
Failure here is a death knell.

The Hang Seng and the Nikkei look very weak and falling.

The swing is showing excessive weakness currently.
You will see from past lows on the Dow
That the oscillator only reaches these levels at the bottoms of the moves down.
Here the oscillator is at these excessively low levels yet the Dow has gone down little.
This oscillator monitors accumulation/distribution - buying/selling within the broad markets.
The data imputs are adv/dec/unc of the Amex, Nasdaq and NYSE totals.

What it is showing me is that there is little buying-accumulation.
The buyers aren't there in the broad market.

The mutual fund $levels show continuous deterioration.

(Wed May 06 1998 08:19 - ID#341189)
Do you also see a potential head and shoulders top in the XAU formed in April, to be completed if it falls below about 83-84?

(Wed May 06 1998 08:30 - ID#341189)
Your Mutual Fund Cash chart shows a nice little fact: Three years and a double in the S&P with a corresponding halving in % cash. This means the funds are carrying the same amount of cash ( absolute level ) that they were when the market was half its present level. This is kind of like building up your arm muscles to twice their size while still maintaining the same blood supply. Leads to cramps.

(Wed May 06 1998 08:38 - ID#213265)
@the scene
Nick@C -- RE: As Mahathir said today ( to paraphrase ) -- 'the West has stolen half of our wealth'.
One gets what one pays for. Any country basing their currency on a silly debt-based con game is asking for it.

(Wed May 06 1998 08:40 - ID#7568)

It appears that the sentiment here at Kitco with regards to silver is decidedly bearish, or at the least fearful. Yesterday's manipulations appear to have achieved thier goal.

As WB has recently opined, nothing on the fundamental side has changed, except that the dollar is starting to weaken a bit.

One feature about yesterdays action is that the market tighted up somewhat in the morning and did not loosen even as it was sold off. It may be that the market is now short enough so that the boys will orchestrate a move to the upside. If you think that the market moves fast on the downside, wait until you see some fund trying to cover a 20 or 30 million ounce short position.

The word for the day is patience. Markets being driven by fundamentals take a long time to mature. Don't get hooked into being short.

(Wed May 06 1998 08:42 - ID#252391)
What's this ..quick
silver has come back from the brink of extinction and is up one cent ...take a picture it may be the last you'll see of it over $6.00 .. the end is near

(Wed May 06 1998 09:00 - ID#263379)
Professional Tape Reader - Stan Weinstein is very bullish on GOLD MINING STOCKS!
Excerpts out of the PROFESSIONAL TAPE READER APR 24, 1998 ( Stan Weinstein )

"The best way to cope with this wild ( stock ) invironment is to listen to the very clear message of the charts, which have been doing a fantastic job! Note that the Gold stocks ( which the PTR turned bullish on last month ) continue to act great, and we feel even stronger that the "two year bear market in these issues is OVER," and these stocks should definitely be part of your portfolio."

Issues on his favorable list:


Metals mining were listed in the PTR's most favored markert sector's list.

Option Scan - Favorable Call options:

"GOLD: There's no change as both the short and long term trends remain favorable. In addition, the XAU Indexes and the gold stocks are acting even better than the bullion, and corrections should be used for additional buying."

PTR labels the equities market as "INCREASINGLY SPECULATIVE".

Also consider that the PTR very very rarely has had this kind of focus on gold.....

(Wed May 06 1998 09:09 - ID#427357)

It was announced on this august forum in the wee hours that:

"Goods Words From Solomon Smith Barney

LIMA, May 5 ( Reuters ) - The average price of gold should rise to $350 in 1999, a senior analyst at Salomon Smith Barney said Tuesday. "Our average price for 1999 is $350 an ounce," Leanne Baker, chief gold analyst at Salomon Smith Barney, told a gold industry conference in Peru."

This is much more optimistic than first appears. Gold's historic yearly volatility has been around 30% - however, recent years have seen it settle down to about 20%. Therefore, factoring in an average 20% price swing from high to low, and based on Solomon's prediction of "Our average price for 1999 is $350 an ounce," we should experience a low of 280 and a high of 420. And since we already witnessed the 280 back in December, Solomon seems to be proclaiming we are indeed in a new gold bull market.

If the Solomon forecast crystallizes with AN AVERAGE PRICE OF 350 - an applying a 20% volatility, gold's high should be about $420, which represents a rise of about 38% from current levels. It's interesting to recall that historically the XAU rises 3 to 5 times more than the bullion in a precious metals bull market. Consequently, we might reasonable hope to see the XAU soar between 114% to 190% - that would put the XAU at 184 to 249.

From Solomon's lips to HIS ears!

(Wed May 06 1998 09:10 - ID#26793)
Official price of gold.
Received a letter in the mail today from Van Eck Gold Report. They are predicting that the world gold reserves will be officially revalued to $422 within a year. Current U.S. official price is $42.22 They say this information is from Swiss sources and that the plan is to increase the gold backing for Europe and Japan.

(Wed May 06 1998 09:11 - ID#284255)
CIA says many unprepared for Millennium glitch
In an interview with Reuters, she said CIA systems engineers and intelligence analysts were focusing beyond the technical problem of reprogramming computers to recognize dates when the Millennium dawns on Jan. 1, 2000.

Instead, the spy agency has begun to collect and analyze information on preparations for the ``social, political and economic tumult'' that could flow from interruptions of essential services in some fragile societies.

``There is very little realization that there will be disruption'' of basic services as some computers shut down or go haywire, even among business leaders, Burns said.

``As you start getting out into the population, I think most people are again assuming that things are going to operate the way they always have,'' she said. ``That is not going to be the case.''

Many governments are ``unprepared for what could potentially be some fairly tough circumstances,'' she added.

(Wed May 06 1998 09:13 - ID#253418)
That was a quick $40 rally in PD
Boy did you see that up $40 in PD at one point, obviously a misquote but it got silver up on the day .... for a minute.

(Wed May 06 1998 09:22 - ID#248180)
@Donald & $422.00 usd revalue of Gold
Would kinda put a different spin on the present value of the USD.
You can bet that this rumour release is from Slick Willie and his good ole boys.

(Wed May 06 1998 09:24 - ID#253418)
Nobody listening
to Von Click or whatever his name perdicting $422 gold or Smith Barnickles opinioning $350 - but its nice to dream.

(Wed May 06 1998 09:35 - ID#287277)
Kitco--The are occasions when there are no words...
Or no words that adequately convey the complex tidal wave
of thought and feeling
at such times, one is left with
Thank you

and the realization that we are bound together
in complex ways
and that doing the right thing
can no doubt be identified
by the degree of discomfort
it creates

we work together
to harvest small grains of truth

(Wed May 06 1998 09:46 - ID#284255)
More Charts
Gold long term
Gold short term
XAU long term
XAU short term
Silver long term
Silver short term
Platinium long term
Platinium short term
Dow/Gold ratio

All their money is nearly in.
It's like a coiled spring stretch to the maximum.

(Wed May 06 1998 09:48 - ID#26793)
The Fed is still acting in a different way on reserves.

(Wed May 06 1998 09:51 - ID#26793)
Notice the change in Fed activity starting May 1st

jim c
(Wed May 06 1998 09:52 - ID#69280)
Good morning all: It is astonishing that the IMF is supporting a regime that has raped and pillaged their own people and country. The poor Indonesians loot and blame the Chinese when instead they should direct all of their anger at Suharto & cronies. To get out of their present crisis, all Suharto has to do is open the vaults to his and his cronies bank accounts because there should be plenty of bucks. How the IMF can support Suharto is amazing. It sure goes to show that the IMF doesn't care about ordinary people but care only for the rich. IMVHO.

Also, can anyone tell me what is making gold move in tandem with the dow? It seems to me that gold should move in opposite direction to the dollar and dow. After saying this, does that mean a crash in the dollar & dow mean a crash in gold and if so, we better hope for a 12000 dow. Thanks and have a great day. Go Gold.

(Wed May 06 1998 09:53 - ID#224149)
slapstick comedy
Ebb Check the C$ ----time---- time Away to work

(Wed May 06 1998 09:56 - ID#289357)

Welcome back.....Hey - $422/oz....hard to keep minting those $50 golden eagles if that happens, eh?

(Wed May 06 1998 09:56 - ID#410215)
..... SDRer .....

You da Man!


(Wed May 06 1998 09:58 - ID#342315)
SDRer re Euro
With all the fluff in the air about the Euro as a "hard" currency, I would like your comments on how Hard it really is. Gold backing and reserves etc are all over the place, but I have not seen a single word about convertibility. What's to keep the overissue of this stuff reardless of how much gold backing is involved? If it's not convertible, what control is there. Many thanx for this effort, Charlie

(Wed May 06 1998 10:02 - ID#26793)
Third day of rioting in Indonesia as more cities become involved.

(Wed May 06 1998 10:04 - ID#254269)
George Shultz testifies against IMF funding.
Today's WSJ print edition page A2. "the world financial system would work better without the IMF" he said.
Can someone post the article electronically ? Thanks.

(Wed May 06 1998 10:09 - ID#263379)
Professional Tape Reader - Additional recommendations!
Additional GOLD buy recommendations from the PROFESSIONAL TAPE READER that were omitted from my previous post.

Fidelity Sector Fund Scan:

American Gold - ( FSAGX ) Buy 18.12 Support 17.50 - 17.90

Bull and Bear
Gold Inverstors - ( BBGIX ) 4.65 4.40 - 4-50

LEXINGTON GOLD - ( LEXMX ) 4.03 3.75 - 3.85

GOLD SHARES - ( USERX ) .59 .54 - .56


Hey folks, there are lots of market letters out there talking about gold, how about sharing those with this world wide forum!

Someone said "the pen is mighter than the sward". This is one way for gold bugs to answer the spin and manipulation of the worlds great powers that weigh heavily on gold and gold mining shares.

(Wed May 06 1998 10:10 - ID#254269)
" Clinton to Japan; Do as I say, not as I do "
is the title of an op-ed in WSJ page A22 by Lawrence B. Lindsey ( A Former governor of the Federal Reserve ) .

(Wed May 06 1998 10:13 - ID#254269)
Everyone's in the stock market.
Cartoon in today's WSJ shows a father sitting on his young son's bed, as though he is reading a bedtime story to the boy.
Caption on the toon; "OK, one more investment strategy, then off to sleep".

(Wed May 06 1998 10:13 - ID#26793)
Van Eck Gold Stock Letter
Amax-Buy, Ashanti-Buy, Barrick-Buy, Cambior-Sell, Homestake-Sell, Freeport-Sell, Newmont-Buy, Royal Oak-Hold

(Wed May 06 1998 10:14 - ID#215208)
Head & shoulders?
Carl - Despite the fact that I spend a lot of time staring at charts, I'm not a TA expert. Yesterday gagnrad asked me to draw a channel for XAU. I did, and it seems XAU is following a fairly well defined channel. Having recently touched the channel top, I would see XAU retesting the channel bottom, now around 80. With the current action in gold, this could happen in a matter of days. The next rally should break 100. All IMHO of course.

(Wed May 06 1998 10:15 - ID#317193)
Interesting Times
We watch this new gold market together. Yes? Could we apply that to silver, also?

Patience is a virtue. We will know thing by December what we are only guessing about today. Stay positive.


(Wed May 06 1998 10:16 - ID#342315)
Anybody re DOW
Falling out of bed prem not doing any good--Anybody got a toll fre for Deutsche Morgan Grenfell? TIA

(Wed May 06 1998 10:17 - ID#57232)
Europe looking better than Asia - today, anyway
sharefin, all: The Asian problems last night were muted by the time the current down wave passed on to Europe, and so ( without other news ) one might expect the US markets to do reasonably well today. I think APH's comment that the spoo's are heading up short term is probably correct.

Since I do not have APH's skill, I will keep my 'funny money' in cash, and wait for the spike down before jumping in again.

It seems that the China devaluation has not happened last night -- not yet, anyway. I bet RR, and AG were very busy discussing all sorts of things with Japan. Japan is looking at the brink again.

One thing we must not do is underestimate the Japanese. It takes alot to get then to act, but historically that is the way they operate. Lets hope they come up with a better plan for their economy, such as the equivalent of the 'Roth Ira'. They must come up with an incentive for the average Japanese to invest in Japan or spend money. They also will need to show that the average Japanese can trust their governement leaders if they are to pull themselves out of their depression. That is a tall order when they do not have the baby-boomer excess we have. Their baby-boom surge is much later then ours.

I think the best thing to watch for is the coming Chineses devaluation. Oops -- sorry SDRer -- I mean reavaluation. Welcome back, SDRer -- your comments are always informative -- and offer a unique perspective to this site. Kitco would be much the worse without you.

(Wed May 06 1998 10:23 - ID#215208)
There it goes!
July silver hit 5.88 now 5.965

John Disney__A
(Wed May 06 1998 10:23 - ID#24135)
LGB = Leaky Gum Boot ??
To all
Refer to LGB going "out on a limb"
for a favorable silver call. Ohboy.
Whadacall!! .. The kiss of DEATH.
Looks like we broke 9 swiss on silver.
To Brother Oris ..
See what I mean .. now if Im right..
with the currency trend lines .. The
fall in the JUNE gold price will hold at
442 swiss, 535 dm , 183 quid, or 39000
yen on a CLOSE ( pick a number ) .. if my
son is right .. watch out.. its a nasty wave
five down ( the silver break down makes
me think he is probably right ) .

(Wed May 06 1998 10:24 - ID#23992)
New Y2K type twist
Australian Finacial Review

Warning Dow Jones surge may hit financial firms
Wed, May 6, 1998

A major consulting firm is warning that a surge in the Dow Jones Industrial Average beyond the 10,000 mark, may have serious consequences for some financial firms.

The Gartner group has released a study which suggests computers in such companies might construe a rise over the 10,000 mark as a catastrophic crash.

The group says this could happen if the computers interpret the level as 1,000 or zero-zero, which they believe may be likely in some organisations.

Meanwhile, Share prices fell overnight on the London Stock Exchange.

The Financial Times Stock Exchange 100-share index was down 23.8points.

(Wed May 06 1998 10:26 - ID#410215)
..... ? .....

Donald -

How may they re-value their gold reserves at $422 unless gold first rises there?

Jims -

The range in the cash market for palladium has only been $8. From $555 to $563. Where did you see a $40 swing?

DA -

Good words. The drop in silver will be supplanted by a quick rise to 7+.


Excellent work re silver. Damn pennant was telling us something, yes?

JD -

I could use a bit of that red pencil myself occasionally. In full explanation, let me further state that .......

Sharefin -

You've been in overdrive the last few days. Good info, well received. Thanks.

"Only that man,

Who steadfast stands apart

And cries his manhood, cries aloud - I AM"

You are, mate.


(Wed May 06 1998 10:28 - ID#208393)
@Avalon - Everyone's in the Stock Market
Isn't that the sign of the last stage of a mania? Comics only satirize subjects that have become established in the public mindset. Investing in unproven high-tech new stocks goes along with it.

The Hermit
(Wed May 06 1998 10:29 - ID#374232)
Great to see you posting again! You do shine the light by which we are all better able to see! Please do continue.

Thank you!

The Hermit

(Wed May 06 1998 10:32 - ID#26793)
An Interesting Observation.
On March 20th the Dow/Gold Ratio reached an all time high of 30.54. On that same day the XAU/Spot Ratio crossed above its 50 day moving average at .244. It has remained above the moving average ever since reaching the high point on April 22 at .297. In a general decline since then the XAU/Spot Ratio is .280 as I type this, with the 50 day moving average at .266.

(Wed May 06 1998 10:33 - ID#238295)
DJ; Agree with your XAU outlook. This time bullion is leading the stocks down.

(Wed May 06 1998 10:35 - ID#287277)
Hey, shop till you DROP! From the Paris Mint (a little comparison shopping)
Auguste Rodin: Thinker - Gold 1oz

The Monnaie de Paris price for 1 OZ gold coin is..FRF 5000,00

On Tuesday, May 5, 1998
5000 French Franc = 837.000 US Dollar

The 5 ounce Gold Rodin coin is 22500 FRF
On Tuesday, May 5, 1998
22500 French Franc = 3766.50 US Dollar

How many golden eagles can YOU buy for $3766.50
How many of Barts BEAUTIFUL Mounties can you buy for $3766.50?

(Wed May 06 1998 10:37 - ID#298259)
Can anyone tell me if U.S. currency ( 10's, 20's, 100's ) without the words "In God We Trust" printed on the back...has any collector value beyond the actual face value of the currency?

(Wed May 06 1998 10:39 - ID#26793)
The same way the tax assessor appraises your house. Looks at it and says: Hmmmmm, looks like a million bucks to me.

In 1934 they ( Roosevelt & Ickies ) looked at the free market price every day and when it reached a number they liked they just set it and offered to buy at that price. For the next three years gold flooded into the U.S.
The next revaluation was 1968? to $38 set by waving a wand and again in 1971, set by waving a wand to $42.22.

(Wed May 06 1998 10:40 - ID#333127)
pm stks
All I see so far is fractional drops in PM stks. They are reluctantly giving ground.

(Wed May 06 1998 10:43 - ID#287277)
Sorry--the French guard the mint website with the same zeal
they guard the gold...

search word: gold
on the first page of gold coins that appears
there is the one ounce Rodin @ 5000 FRF ( $837 something )

and the five ounce Rodin @ 22500 FRF ( $3700 something )

Now, if we were shopping for SHOVELS and found we could puchase
the same shovel ( different label ) in Store A for 10 and in Store
B for 20....

And Lordy, we do NEED SHOVELS!!! {:- ) )

(Wed May 06 1998 10:43 - ID#254269)
Newshour with Jim Lehrer
Did anyone see the piece last night about the euro? I watched it and
noticed a couple of things ; there was no reference in the piece to gold that I noticed and the President of European Commission ( Jacques ? ) , said that there is no intention to rival the US $.

(Wed May 06 1998 10:46 - ID#243166)
All She Wrote
Huge merger, but nobody heard. Chrysler up 15%; Dow tanks. The top is now in the history books.

(Wed May 06 1998 10:47 - ID#284255)
Pressure's on - which ways the sentiment?
Gold is traveling with the Dow
Tick low -870

(Wed May 06 1998 10:49 - ID#26793)
Give me some more detail about the note, series, signatures etc. I have some catalogues and may be able to help.

(Wed May 06 1998 10:53 - ID#57232)
Intraday update on sp-500
All: According to my intraday charts, 15 min delayed, the us markets are heading down, not up. Whatever is happening, gold -- physical or paper -- is not going to be a good investment for a time -- until the current selling cycle is over. Would be nice to know who is selling. Hong Kong? Europe? Japan and China are very unlikely sellers. How about Indonesia? Any gold left? Interesting comments by Schultz about the incompetence of the IMF being ineffective, and that it should be disbanded. Makes sense -- I cannot think of any IMF success stories in SEAsia.

D.A, RJ: I read somewhere that there were investors short silver a collective total of over 100 million ounces. If this is true, I think our silver bull will have some lively 'dips' ahead, before the rally continues. My guess is that the real winners in this battle of the titans will be the Warren Buffet types buying on the downspikes. Wish I was a bit more nimble -- I am just holding my silver stocks, and waiting. Less work, though.

(Wed May 06 1998 10:53 - ID#316193)
"Gold walks into a left hook." Appropriate and appreciated, Michael!!

(Wed May 06 1998 10:53 - ID#26793)
@Woody: Chrysler-Damlier news

(Wed May 06 1998 10:57 - ID#342315)
Sharefin re live dow
You have watched this longer than me. Could you give me some parameters to refine my observations here? The "absolute" relation between the prem and the dow moves is obvious, but I know you have some other goodies there. Many thanx, Charlie

(Wed May 06 1998 11:00 - ID#238422)
John Disney
Thanks, Brother, for numbers.
I see what you mean... Still, this
break in POG looks very strange to me
and makes no sense to me, but me is no
king....Still hoping brither Tom will
have a shot pretty soon when it breaks
above $318... ( 3-5 days ) from now.

(Wed May 06 1998 11:01 - ID#287277)
Aavalon, it was a very carefully crafted response...
to the question: "Would the Euro replace the USD as the
Global Reserve Currency?" to which Santer replied,

"It was not the INTENTION, in the bringing forward of the
Euro, to replace the dollar as the global reserve currency.."

That it might be the CONSEQUENCE of bringing forward the Euro
is an altogether different thing! {:- ) )

(Wed May 06 1998 11:04 - ID#390415)
Samuelson in today's Washington Post on Y2K

(Wed May 06 1998 11:06 - ID#284255)
RJ - thanks mate.
What are you after?
I watch SPM8 prem tick vix.x plus many more.

Maybe the feds bought some SP puts
And are using their profits to sell gold down.
They must look after their bonds.

(Wed May 06 1998 11:13 - ID#317193)
Brother oris
I will have my "shots" of vodka soon. This is another shake out. Tom

(Wed May 06 1998 11:23 - ID#342315)
Sharefin re live dow
Got a call to make. Will be back to you shortly, Thanx

(Wed May 06 1998 11:23 - ID#243166)
Could Be Worse
Gold down 1%; silver down 4%; = XAU only down 2%
The stocks don't wanna go down, but they feel they HAVE to.

(Wed May 06 1998 11:30 - ID#427357)

Last night the Nikkei plummeted 357 points ( down 2.3% ) , closing at 15244. That's only 244 points from the its flash level, when the Nippon banking an insurance systems start coming apart at the seams.

The Japanese banking and insurance systems are teetering on total collapse. The Bank of Japan is dumping US T-Bonds to generate monies to support it s sliding currency and to buy up paper on the Tokyo stock exchange. Meanwhile there is a rapid attrition of qualified financial executives in the financial sector due to a rash of suicides. This is causing great alarm among individual Japanese savers and international institutional investors. It will not be too long before the BOJ will run out of money ( and US T-bonds ) in its support of the plunging Nikkei and the devaluating Yen. Consequently, it will be tank-city for the Nikkei as it free-falls to much lower levels.

And it's going to get a lot worse before it gets any better! Analyst expert on the Far-East, John Kutyn, indeed paints a grim picture of what is transpiring in the Orient ( especially in the Land of "Rising" Sun and China ) . He foresees the Nikkei might find bottom around the 4000 level. Kutyn describes in minute and painful detail why the Far-East is destined to undergo a "Financial Cleansing" - where only the strongest economically will survive.

Kutyn's in-depth analysis is called "Mind Control & Financial Armageddon," and may be seen at the following website.

Please remember it is necessary to close the space in front of the word "-eagle" before posting it to your Internet locator:

(Wed May 06 1998 11:31 - ID#335190)
Question of BLIND FAITH @ "GROUP" is never identified = Government Agency, No disclosure eh!
** Statistics Canada.... "CANVASSES A GROUP"... of economic analysts... for one-month-ahead forecasts

May 6, 1998

Canada short-term expectations - Statscan data

OTTAWA, May 6 ( Reuters ) - Statistics Canada issued the following data on Wednesday:
--------------------Short-term Expectations Survey

(Wed May 06 1998 11:32 - ID#20135)
As reported by Donald earlier, the fed for the fourth day in a row has drained liquidity ( READ THAT to MUVH MONEY ) . Please, I don't EVER remember the Fed draining reserves.

Is this just my amazingly bad memory OR is the FLOOD of USdollars already heading home? I believe this is a VERY BAD sign for the USdollar and thus US stocks and bonds. Yes, I think it is VERY positive for the actual price of GOLD ( not the comex paper price necessarily ) .


As far as the reported price of gold bullion...

I have come to the conclusion that comex is a paper trading house and as such they have the ability to drive the price up or down to ANY level they ( PPT ) wish whenever they wish. I would NOT recommend playing options and I would not buy Gold except for a long term STORE of Value. If you worry about the future then buy gold and silver bullion and use it for door stops ... until the ____ hits the fan.

I finally, see that ANOTHER may be correct in preferring bullion over stocks, since the gold stocks are priced based on the PAPER gold price.

Just thought I would run this by all of you.

( :" )

(Wed May 06 1998 11:32 - ID#26793)
Re-reading your question:

"How may they re-value their gold reserves at $422 unless gold first rises there?"

My answers could have been better, let me try and improve. They are not revauluing gold to $422. They are devaluing the dollar, or perhaps better said, acknowledging depreciation since the last devaluation. Each change in the official price is a devaluation. As the dollar is the reserve currency there is nothing to devalue against except gold.

(Wed May 06 1998 11:35 - ID#298259)
@ Donald
Donald, any help would be greatly appreciated. These were bills that were passed along to me by my father. Some of the signatures are very difficult for me to decipher but here goes...

$10 series 1950D, Treas. KO Gresham, Sec. of Treas. C Douglas Dillon

$20 series 1934, Treas. WA Julian, Sec. of Treas. Henry Morganthau Jr.
$20 series 1950, Treas. GN Clark, Sec. of Treas. Jonn W. Snyder
$20 series 1950A, Treas. GB Priest, Sec. of Treas. GW M?hery
$20 series 1950B, Treas. GB Priest, Sec. of Treas. Robert Anderson
$20 series 1950C, Treas. ER Emit, Sec. of Treas. C Douglas Dillon
$20 series 1950D, Treas. KO Gresham, Sec. of Treas. C. Douglas Dillon
$20 series 1950E, Treas. KO Gresham, Sec. of Treas. Henry H Fowler

$100 series 1934D, Treas. GN Clark, Sec. of Treas. John W. Snyder
$100 series 1950D, Treas. KO Gresham, Sec. of Treas. C Douglas Dillon

I also have a $1 Silver Certificate Series 1957, Treas Priest, Sec R. Anderson.

(Wed May 06 1998 11:36 - ID#373403)
Buying bullion
Since the funds are not pricing this drop as a long term occurence, I will just have to buy bullion on this dip! Love dips!

(Wed May 06 1998 11:40 - ID#390415)
Gold, the Gipper, and Godzilla
Gold -- A day to "hold and hope" for goldbugs

the Gipper -- Perhaps a foreshadowing of what the legacy of this great man will be is seen in the bipartisan, wholehearted, and uplifting tribute at the dedication of the Reagan building:


Godzilla - Yes, Herr Vronsky, the 15000 Nikkei flash point may be the Achilles heel of the world digital economy. Call out the police with their handguns, the sea is astir, and there are reports of a monster.

(Wed May 06 1998 11:41 - ID#342315)
Sharefin re previous
URL is
Among other things on the top R are Tick, Trin, Oex and Tyx.x along with Prem.x. Which of these besides Prem is important and how to read.
As the dow falls, Prem goes up. When dow climbs, Prem goes off. I can understand this. Any comments appreciated, Charlie

(Wed May 06 1998 11:41 - ID#372262)
NOT your post but McNeil/Lehrer report. The major purpose of the Euro is to compete with the US! Break down trade barriers. Reduce the cost of trade. Increase price competition. AND allow the Europeans to do what Americans have been doing for decades--PAY for oil and other commodities in THEIR OWN CURRENCIES. The 'fruits' of such a 'system of payments' has not been lost on European politicians! Yes, the purpose of the Euro is to serve as an alternate reserve currency, backed by a siginificant percentage of gold, when the dollar is rejected by ME oil interests. The fix is now in! The dollar will slowly be rejected in favor of the Euro to the chagrin of AG and RR! THEN watch the flood of dollars return to the US and start bidding for HARD assets before they are inflated to zero!

(Wed May 06 1998 11:41 - ID#234218)
@ A Goose Re: your comment "I finally, see that ANOTHER may be correct in preferring bullion over
If the actual value of Gold were increased, would that not increase the value of the shares? I don't understand?

(Wed May 06 1998 11:45 - ID#234218)
A Goose, try again, your 11:22
I finally, see that ANOTHER may be correct in preferring bullion over stocks, since the gold stocks are priced based on the PAPER gold price.
If the value of physical gold increased, wouldn't the value of mining shares increase too? I don't understand?

John Disney__A
(Wed May 06 1998 11:45 - ID#24135)
Silver is pulling this plug .. not gold
Brother Oris
If you construct gold price in
currencies as I described.. you
will see that travel to bottom of trend
channel was very likely. Yen line is
about 39000.. this says 294 for June.
Correcting 294 to where the dmark
was one month ago ( 1.85 ) and now ( 1.764 )
says gold would be equivalent of
294 *1.764/1.85 = 280 with a stronger
dollar .. Maybe that will be far
enough ???
And Harmony is UP in this market. Can
you believe it ??
Gold/Silver ratio 52.3 .. it had been
below 47..
Is that silver volality or a booboo in the
site ?? Spot is BOUNCING
RJ says a surplus of gold .. How about
a surplus of DOLLARS.

(Wed May 06 1998 11:46 - ID#57232)
Thanks for reposting the John Kutyn flier
vronsky: Appreciate your comments. We at Kitco are so consistently gloomish and doomish it is hard to distinguish for the real and the imagined. Would be interesting of John Kutyn has any more info on that mysterious country - Japan. It is easier to discern what is happening in China than Japan.

You are right that the Japan situation is of more concern to us than China. A Chinese devaluation will affect us indirectly, but trouble in Japan would have much more direct effects.

I gather Japan is heavily invested in Indonesia from your post. I would have thought by now that some enterprising banker types would have rolled that debt over by now. Perhaps no one was gullible enough to assume the risk. That is an ominous sign for what might happen to other countries if the serial devaluations continue.

(Wed May 06 1998 11:51 - ID#31868)
Did I hear this right on CNBC
10,000 a day are being layed off in Korea!?!?!

(Wed May 06 1998 11:52 - ID#243166)
@Vronsky: 15000 Nikkei
With the deflationary pressure of a Nikkei below 15000 and falling, coupled with an ever weakining Yen, how can dollar denominated gold possibly rise? Can someone help me out here?

(Wed May 06 1998 11:53 - ID#7568)

This morning's action in silver was another technically driven fund bailing out of the game. Best guess is that the liquidation was about 20 - 30 million ounces. This would appear to be the last of the technical sellers liquidating. Any more selling from this quarter will be fresh shorting. Also as a guess, the technical fund position is now net short something on the order of 25 million ounces.

The long consortium has not sold an ounce. While untraceable it is likely that they were the buyers of this piece, just as they bought the prior large chunks over the last few months.

The total amount of long liquidation plus shorts put in place by these big technical trading funds now amounts to around 100 million ounces over the last 2 months. The price during this time is now about 40 cents below the highs of around 640.

The lending market for silver is currently in disarray. The sales were done in the physical market and it is not clear whether the silver was owned outright or under forward. If the answer is the latter then, this sale is going to generate a large need for physical silver, and will likely tighten the market. There should be a good read on this before the close of trading.

Happy trails.

(Wed May 06 1998 11:55 - ID#20135)
Date: Wed May 06 1998 11:41
Snowball ( @ A Goose Re: your comment "I finally, see that ANOTHER may be correct in preferring bullion
over ) ID#234218:

As I see it.

The price of gold that you and I live with is set by comex ( and lbma ) . Comex trades very little actual bullion and tons of paper ( contracts ) gold.

Another noted that there were basically to markets for gold. The one we know and love ( comex/lbma ) and they one he knows. In the actual market ( his if you will allow me ) the price paid for bullion is much higher. And as we have seen it has had NO impact on the price that we see day to day.

Comex over the last few years had held less and less actual bullion will still trading milliuon of paper ( contracts ) ounces everyday. Supplies drop and prices drop -- I believe this happens only is a paper driven game.

Since gold stocks are price on the basic price of gold as gotten from comex and lbma, then they will not reflect the actual value of the commodity.

I hope that this helps. It is all a MAJOR mind game, I admit.

(Wed May 06 1998 11:57 - ID#269409)
*LGB Gold Report
This Gold market is..... "As before".....
POG is..................."As before".....
Predictions from Kitco..."As before".....

(Wed May 06 1998 12:01 - ID#273227)
to the end of the day
D.A. - I look forward to reading your take on the silver inbalances at the end of the day. I'm giving up my position this time.

(Wed May 06 1998 12:01 - ID#269409)
@ DA....Silver
Appreciated your post on the source of the selling in Silver. It won't last below $6.00 for long. IMHO, far more potential for medium term gains in silver than in Gold at this point.

And of course looking back 6 months, 9 months, 12 months, 24 months..... and about anywhere in between, Silver has made outstanding gains as Gold continues to take it's horrific pounding.

Today is a great "buy" opportunity ( in silver ) and one I've been waiting for. I'm moving 5% of my cash into the metal today.

(Wed May 06 1998 12:03 - ID#266105)

SA adrs turning reddish today. Added to Randgold position,
still out of Harmony and Durban for a couple weeks now.
I figure mining shares are going to take a hit along
with a downturn in the major indices somewhere along
the line.

Thanks/kudos to the g-eagle bunch ( I hope ) for the
research, to all for the links and inputs.

(Wed May 06 1998 12:03 - ID#358318)
Treasury to retire a bond instrument???
Could this have a similar effect to stock buybacks, i.e. reducing the
number of bonds available therefore increasing the price and
causing the yield to fall? Would I be crazy to believe that this
might have something to do with the PPT?

(Wed May 06 1998 12:06 - ID#234218)
@ A.Goose THANKS
I think I get it now. If I had 1000 shares of "Go Get'em Mining", I would have to trade at the Comex price of gold. However, if I had 100 ounces of gold in a smelly old sock, I would trade it at a price set by ANOTHER market.
Question is, when, where, and how will this physical market trade. If the only thing left for Comex is ghost paper it would collapse. Then what would happen to mining shares. Eliminated? Nationalized? Curious, in a scare-the-hell-out-of-you-way!


(Wed May 06 1998 12:06 - ID#153102)
What happens to the IMF basket of currencies when the European country currencies go away ?
When George Schultz says IMF should go away, I think IMF will go away and the $US will have to stand on its own two feet like any other national paper.

(Wed May 06 1998 12:06 - ID#408285)
We seem to be getting carried away with Japan's problems. The problabilities call for a yen of approximately 150 by year end and a Nikkei of 8000-9000.

(Wed May 06 1998 12:11 - ID#254269)
Another thing about the Jim Lehrer show; (My observation)
There is more talent here on this forum ( Kitco ) than there was on that show last night.

(Wed May 06 1998 12:11 - ID#273227)
A. Goose - Fed action
The Fed draining or adding liquidity is an everyday event. CNBC has a little graphic they display everyday on the Fed's action. Over the Christmas season, they added liquidity almost everyday. Then in early January they drained almost everyday. This is short term stuff.

Gianni Dioro__A
(Wed May 06 1998 12:12 - ID#384350)
jimc, yer 9:52, Indonesia
Indonesians were stupid to have trusted US banks. Addicted to cheaper dollar loans like a cheap Hure is addicted to heroin, they got caught with their pants down when their loans were called.

Indonesia was collapsed and now the IMF comes in to bail out western banks ( Counter party derivative exposure ) , and to make them Asians surrender their industries to Western Corporations at fire sale prices.

I wonder if the EN-Carry Trade will produce something similar in the US.

(Wed May 06 1998 12:12 - ID#358318)
US Treasury dropping 3yr bonds - same comment as 12:03

(Wed May 06 1998 12:15 - ID#153102)
The Prussian aristocrat von wha'shisname who staked a position in Homestake is on the other side of this opinion. Somebody from Europe is buying Harmony. The Belgians own African mining shares. I think ANOTHER is wrong about mining shares although he may be right about them in some countries like Oz and Kanata and Russkia.

(Wed May 06 1998 12:16 - ID#22956)
To post again at this Kitco......YES. ISP is making this 'cat' a batty one. I cannot even trade properly unless at work........excuse me I will adjust your glasses as soon as I get my currency orders filled.

Now, how 'bout those currencies. That is a market not boring....unlike gold..... ( ugh ) .....or reading F* Gold Reports. That guy really is in love with himself. Must be an thing. ( I live north ) Sheeeeesh. It is as though he thinks we all cannot wait to read his ANALysis on gold and other stuff. I think the ONLY time he hit the nail on the head was this a.m. when he said........."ad nauseum"........ ( barF* ) .......YES. I second JD's Red Pencil Post............ ( scratch-scratch ) nauseum....etc, etc... gold is NOT in an EXTREMELY BULLISH state....uh uh. right GSC? poor plat falter....... :- (


my mail is up and I will respond to my amigos who sent me stuff asap.... ( have employees on holiday and who else fills the shoes? ) ... ( damn ) . go bohl. go grains. ohmy!

(Wed May 06 1998 12:17 - ID#26793)
Japanese politicians suggest crafting special tax laws to help banks survive.

(Wed May 06 1998 12:18 - ID#20135)
for instance, yesterday:

496,181 0 0 0 0 496,181
162,312 0 0 0 0 162,312
658,493 0 0 0 0 658,493

BUT the paper ( contracts ) gold traded

2.3 MILLION ounces. Ang this goes on day in and day out week after week, month after month.


Gold 23,000
Silver 18,000
H.G. Copper 6,000

I will NOT be surprised that today with "all this MAJOR action" in gold, to see the actual eligible comex gold stocks to remain constant or even go down. But I am sure that millions of paper gold ounces will be traded.

SOOOOoooo as silly as it may sound, I am ready to buy and store my bullion and sit back and just ignore the price as it is generated from the comex paper gold market.


(Wed May 06 1998 12:18 - ID#20135)
for instance, yesterday:

496,181 0 0 0 0 496,181
162,312 0 0 0 0 162,312
658,493 0 0 0 0 658,493

BUT the paper ( contracts ) gold traded

2.3 MILLION ounces. Ang this goes on day in and day out week after week, month after month.


Gold 23,000
Silver 18,000
H.G. Copper 6,000

I will NOT be surprised that today with "all this MAJOR action" in gold, to see the actual eligible comex gold stocks to remain constant or even go down. But I am sure that millions of paper gold ounces will be traded.

SOOOOoooo as silly as it may sound, I am ready to buy and store my bullion and sit back and just ignore the price as it is generated from the comex paper gold market.


(Wed May 06 1998 12:19 - ID#335190)
"Kanata" Thanks Mozel : )
Take Care

(Wed May 06 1998 12:20 - ID#273227)
I'm NOT giving up my position this time!

Time to go swing my new Armour Ti Titanium 1 iron. This is the Fred Flintstone iron that bankrupted the Tommy Armour Co, I heard the R&D was $40 million on these irons. Add a $20 million advertising budget, and they sold less then 5000 sets. 5000 sets is rumor - I've heard numbers as low as 1000 sets. later...

(Wed May 06 1998 12:23 - ID#26793)
Fed drains $3.525 billion from system

(Wed May 06 1998 12:23 - ID#335184)
Wouldn't this simply mean that CBs & NWO acknowledge $422 as the minimum value of 422 USD = 1 OZ/AU ?
Since these institutions don't redeem their currencies for AU, what could be the purpose other than for the NWO to "simonize" their compass to some sort of new fixed ( no pun intended ) exchange rate based on the premise that the NWO can maintain this world price ? Of course, in the process they would devalue the USD by 40% ! This would constitute a fairly rude shock to the creditors of the USG no doubt !



(Wed May 06 1998 12:25 - ID#284255)
There is some good information 3/4 of the way down this page;

I watch the tick and the prem a lot
Plus the indices.

There are lots of other indices you can watch.
Also all the futures - global indexes, currencies, metal, bonds etc.
There is a long list of these.

(Wed May 06 1998 12:25 - ID#410114)
Gold bear
It the 18 yr bear mkt in gold is still in FULL force. The excuse today is the possibility that the fed may notch up the % of cash margin players need to put on postions

(Wed May 06 1998 12:26 - ID#254269)
@ vronsky; Re Bank of Japan.
Just read your 11.30. How long can BOJ go before they run out of moeny. Are we talking 60, 90 days, six months ?

(Wed May 06 1998 12:26 - ID#153102)
@6Pak @A Window
Yer welcome. Spirit of Tecumseh forever !

@A Window I see a Treasury Auction for Buyback of Bonds and the Bid is ten cents on the dollar. Oh, don't cry for me, Argentina, Japan, etc.

(Wed May 06 1998 12:28 - ID#288157)
Mozel ~ the basket...
will be reconfigured ( as their five-year rule dictates ) in 2000.
One suspects there is a bit of...mmmm...angst surrounding this
event. 5 biggest trading countries...I make that Europe, US, China,
Japan, Korea ( ? ) Or, given that monetary union is NOT political union...?
The balance of economic power has shifted nonetheless...

(Wed May 06 1998 12:28 - ID#20135)
Mozel, I hope you are correct. Obviously, I am having a very difficult time getting around the price fixing tool that exist in comex.

Maybe, I should soften my comments and say that buy bullion and solid gold stocks, BUT realize that you are buying for the long haul because for now comex and lbma have a lock on setting the paper gold prices.



(Wed May 06 1998 12:29 - ID#26793)
Fed drains from banking system.
These moves are something new. Done along with the comment in Barron's about possible changes in margin requirements and speculation that Greenspan discussed this with the president yesterday you must conclude that something is up. Drained reserves reduce money available for speculation in stocks, bonds and precious metals.

(Wed May 06 1998 12:31 - ID#433142)
Bottom is in . . .
Now the surge. Go gold.

(Wed May 06 1998 12:36 - ID#26793)
Yes. That is what it does. I think it would also be considered inflationary unless it were coupled with a reduction in the money supply. We may be seing that now. That could be a clue to the unusual Fed activity. These events and leaks all seem to be tied together in a way I am just begining to understand. For example; if gold were fixed at $422 as the official price how much is a barrell of oil going to cost? Are Social Security payments going to be adjusted? Would such an event be done just to cause confusion and as a smokescreen to make other unpopular adjustments?

(Wed May 06 1998 12:37 - ID#340302)
A sudden reversal in Fed policy has resulted in the draining of huge sums of liquidity over the last several days.

Today's liquidity drain is HUGE!

This policy reversal is particularly schizophrenic given the huge sums of liquidity added to the system over the past month.

The U.S. government is simply confused. They predicted a mild deflation ( caused by the Asia Effect ) and now recognize that we are in no way shape or form head into a pure deflation. As such, they are spinning on a dime in a desperate effort to forestall an essential interest rate hike necessary to preclude severe sectoral inflations ( most notably in the real estate and service sectors ) from breaking out in the economy.


Either the U.S. must raise interest rates or devalue the U.S. dollar

Liquidity flow adjustments will NOT suffice for a short-term fix as there is too much of a time lag for the adjustments to work their way through the economy.




(Wed May 06 1998 12:39 - ID#153102)
I think it is safe to say the Euro is not going in the basket. Everything else in the basket is a basket case except $US. I think there are sterile chickens that have come home to roost in the basket ( derivatives of hens ) and a rooster crowing Yankee Doodle.

(Wed May 06 1998 12:41 - ID#347235)
@ Scito
The last time I heard anything as mindless as your long rambling dissertation of numerology was when Oral Robert said the Lord told him to raise $8 million or he was going to die. Personnaly I would have been happy to send flowers. But a lot of idiots sent him money.

(Wed May 06 1998 12:42 - ID#347235)
@ all

(Wed May 06 1998 12:42 - ID#206358)
Good day!
Recently dued to the finacial crisis.Many among of us suffered a lots interm of business and jobs!To survived in this situation,we've to gambled or predicted the markets movements.Since myself and the rest of us lack of education in investment field,we relied on the analysist and stupid judgements.And the results,we lost more than gained.And more,the tensions and pressures built up days by days!
Since joining the "KITCO" two years ( app ) .I noticed many great gurus,knwoledge and experiences investors around here!Such as OLDMAN,RJ,TED,JTF,FERFIN,NICK,DONALD,AURATORS,.....AND MANY MORE!It would be great if you can kindly advises any good sites that i can study and follow the advises from the GURUS!
I noticed that the currently the markets are terrible dangerours around DOW JONES,NIKKIE,HANG SENG ect..!It would be great to know,to study and realised some predictions advance before for reference...!
The situations around here,SOUTH EAST ASIA...,i can shaked head and tell you truely:"IT'S HARD,DIFFICULT AND WORSEN DAY BY DAY HERE!"..NO OFFENCE TO SPOIT THE FORUMS...SORRY!
THANKS ....BART...for many contributions to KITCO!
BYE....waiting for any reply!

faithfully ,
( )
dry and hot midnite.....oh...ohhhh..el... ninooooooo...No!

(Wed May 06 1998 12:44 - ID#347235)
@ All
Sorry , fat fingers and oldtimers disease and CRS conspire against me today, I noticed too late I had misspelled PERSONALLY before. I spell better than I type, but dont a lot of us?

(Wed May 06 1998 12:44 - ID#57232)
Silver equities
LGB, D.A: I tried to jump into PAASF, thinking that I could easily add to my position. It is still well above the price I bought it -- so there are many individuals out there who consider the currenct silver bullion price dip is temporary. Oh well -- I guess I won't be playing Warren Buffett in miniature today!

However, if the crisis in SEAsia continues, silver equities might go down some more fairly soon. If I was a silver bullion bear, I would certainly take advantage of the weakness in gold any way I could. Not much time left, I think. Just wail till gold bottoms again!

(Wed May 06 1998 12:45 - ID#333126)
asian currencies tanking going on
check out

( can't cut and paste, sorry, the table seems selection-proof somehow )

(Wed May 06 1998 12:48 - ID#238295)
Eldorado: Looks like gold chomping on the bit to go under $300 again. But with the gold stocks still holding up nicely, my bet is that we won't be under $300 very long. A buying opportunity coming up, yes?

(Wed May 06 1998 12:49 - ID#153102)
@farfel A post worth more than its weight in Gold.
Gold revaluation meaning international $US devaluation is the only way out.
$422 leaked is the official gold community demand ( believe it or not the CB have not sold all their gold ) .
If BIS revalues from @208 to $422, the market price will be even higher. Even ARF ARF mines will produce at a profit.

(Wed May 06 1998 12:51 - ID#289357)
ANYONE @ COMEX gold margin requirements increase

What would the effect be of an increase in margin requirements for gold trading at COMEX? Nothing except a lessening of volatility? Or would it run all the small specs out of the game? Bullish, or bearish for POG?

(Wed May 06 1998 12:51 - ID#288157)

The Princes may negotiate a new Magna Charta;
1 SDR = X GF? {:- )

(Wed May 06 1998 13:02 - ID#252150)
Liberty@Stan Weinstein-The problem with TA is that it can only look backwards
News has affected the POG since Apr 24 & it has probably broken important support levels on his charts. I'd be very surprised if his present forecast was anywhere near as bullish.

(Wed May 06 1998 13:02 - ID#153102)
I don't think there are any Princes in IMF. And I don't think they have enough gold to negotiate. ( No relation to Magna Charta that I see either. )

(Wed May 06 1998 13:03 - ID#266105)
@20% of SA workforce HIV-positive by 2000

(Wed May 06 1998 13:05 - ID#32078)
And what system accurately looks at forward data?

Good ol' boy
(Wed May 06 1998 13:06 - ID#26362)
In response to your question as to how can gold possibly rise, I can assure you that it will not only rise, but it will fall. Often, rises and falls occur due to something which no one thought of. They just seem to happen. I have been through several cycles and God willing, I will see several more before I go shuffling off....The key is timing and I haven't a clue.

(Wed May 06 1998 13:09 - ID#269409)
U.S. go in REVERSE????
Hmmm, this may be a first in decades. The treasury expects to be paying DOWN the U.S. debt by 110 billion in the current quarter due to a huge increase in tax revenues brought about by the ULTRA strong U.S. economy.

Fundamentals for a crash, just aren't in place. Now, how bout a correction.... meanwhile, KTEL has gone up 2,800 just a couple weeks time. Looking for the next exploding Net stock. Sell Gold, buy electrons.......

(Wed May 06 1998 13:10 - ID#156153)
Silverbaron, RE: Margins for Comex Gold...
The margin requirements are currently unchanged for Comex gold.
I have an account through Lind-Waldock and just called them.
The original margin=$1350.00 maintenance margin=$1000.00

I don't what impact there is when these margins change, but I
know it makes my account more difficult to trade when they
raise margin requirements and I have limited funds in the 1st
place! BTW, the margins were lowered for Comex Silver!
original margin=$2970.00 maint margin=$2200.00 ...
They were $3780 and $2800. This is per Lind-Waldock as of
April 28th.
See Ya,

Gianni Dioro__A
(Wed May 06 1998 13:18 - ID#384350)
Tax Revenue
Tax Revenues are strong not as much to the bogus so called "strong" economy, but rather to low interest rates which increase corporate profits, and more importantly create massive asset inflation in the stock market on which are taxed capital gains taxes and stock-related income: CEO and employee stock options, IPO's, etc.

(Wed May 06 1998 13:19 - ID#373403)
You been bashin' gold and promotin' silver for the past year. Welcome to the jungle buddy!

(Wed May 06 1998 13:20 - ID#252150)
Larryn@Systems looking backwards & forwards
Mike Sheller's probably works as well as any. I did'nt mean to disparage
TA as a tool, but I would hate to think that anyone was making investment decisions based on stale TA. I think it's invaluable for entry/exit points.

(Wed May 06 1998 13:21 - ID#153102)
@the carrier of plague
"And, behold, one of the children of Israel came and brought
unto his brethren a Midianitish woman in the sight of Moses, and
in the sight of all the congregation of the children of Israel,
who were weeping before the door of the tabernacle of the congre-
gation. And when Phineas, the son of Eleazar, the son of Aaron
the priest, saw it, he rose up from among the congregation, and
took a javelin in his hand; And he went after the man of Israel
into the tent, and thrust both of them through, the man of Is-
rael, and the woman through her belly. So the plague was stayed
from the children of Israel..." Numbers 25:6-13.

(Wed May 06 1998 13:24 - ID#340302)
@MOZEL...the most important thing.... to watch the liquidity flows; they ALWAYS tells you where the markets are going.

Today's enormous liquidity drainage by the Fed means several things:

1 ) The end of enormous liquidity inflows to prop up this vertical stock market. Since the stock market is liquidity driven today rather than fundamentally driven, then LOOK OUT BELOW.

2 ) The desperate attempt to forestall sectoral inflations from breaking out. Too late though...either a good interest rate hike ( .5 points or better ) or a currency devaluation or a stock market collapse will forestall these phenomena.

Gold will shoot up shortly on the basis of these facts. Add in one little "unexpected" fundamental ingredient IN THE WORKS and the rise will be meteoric.

OH, Yowsah.



(Wed May 06 1998 13:27 - ID#335184)
VIOS CON DIOS to any short PM position on the day that the USG devalues to AU $422 !
AU shares would triple instantly from today's levels !
Surly, they would do this by letting the USD fall "slowly", i.e., through the rest of 98, rather than suddenly.
The Japanese should sell their bonds now before they get left holding the bag of devaluation !
All, IMHIPO, of course !



(Wed May 06 1998 13:28 - ID#226286)
RANGY sellers and RANGY buyers
Im still finding humor in people dumping rangy after the supposed bad news last week. To sell for a good reason is fine, but to sell out of ignorance is foolish. Anyone who sold rangy due to recent bad news had no business buying it in the first place, as it is obvious they are not puting forth the effort to keep informed about their investments. A sure way to the poor house is to sell on bad news, and buy on good news. Granted the SA scene isnt easy to follow, but the info is out there if you are willing to work for it. Gold  Eagle's new S.A section will make this much easier. There was virtually no new news with rangy last week, yet the uninformed dump the stock, and those in the know gladly add to their positions at bargain prices. It is very rare that you can get diversification, great leverage, and a 50% discount to NAV all in one buy. Im working on all the latest info Ive found.Ill post it as soon as Im finished.

John Disney__A
(Wed May 06 1998 13:29 - ID#24135)
Gold and Siver
For Leaky Gum Boot
Since December 11, Gold has actually
risen against Silver. Its possible that
this rise may be a wave 4 on the
gold/silver ratio and the longer term
trend will continue..
Maybe blowing hot air at silver will
make it go up.
For Mozel/2bro2b
Several Mines are establishing thenselves
as likely tigers in this early stage of
a likely bull market in gold .. The first
is Harmony .. another is Lihir ( but there
are too many shares ) .. Randfontein has
risen about the same amount as Harmony
but it lacks the long term potential..
Dbn deep is doing well .. I believe
Rangy's day will come.
The AID's prediction is probably
convervative. Problem is in Natal,
the Northern provinces, and the Eastern
Cape. It affects Blacks by far the most
but has also decimated homosexuals here
as well.

(Wed May 06 1998 13:30 - ID#255217)
Dollar devaluation...against what?
From time to time I see a reference to the phrase "devalue the dollar". The context in which a statement is made with the use of this phrase is not so much in question as is the actual meaning of the phrase itself. I am always confused by this because I don't understand how you can devalue something when there is no base reference. Devalue against WHAT?

If we were on a gold standard, I would immediately understand the statement as meaning a lowering of the value of the dollar in terms of the amount of gold it would buy, i.e., a dollar would buy LESS gold than before the devaluation. Its value would be LESS than before , in terms of gold.

But since we are NOT on a gold standard ( pretty obvious to all ) and since the dollar itself is pretty much recognized as the standard worldwide by which other currencies are compared as well as the worth of most if not all tangibles, it escapes me HOW the dollar can be DEVALUED! Compared to WHAT? Isn't that what fiat currencies are all about??? Their value is declared by FIAT ( government edict ) . The value is what they ( the government ) SAYS it is! Which is WHAT???!!! Nice ploy if you can get away with it and governments do and are!

(Wed May 06 1998 13:33 - ID#335190)
FWIW @ Looting is not a crime or a sin. Brazil
Hungry villagers loot groceries in drought-stricken Brazil

GRAVATA, Brazil ( AP )  Desperate to find food after six months of drought, a group of villagers and poor farmers broke into a supermarket

The Roman Catholic church has backed the movement, saying looting to stave off hunger is neither a crime nor a sin. Even Supreme Court Justice
Jose Paulo Sepulveda Pertence said looting in those circumstances was justified.

(Wed May 06 1998 13:35 - ID#382234)


(Wed May 06 1998 13:35 - ID#238295)
JTF: I have the distinct impression that this latest drop in POG reflects renewed pressure on Asian markets and currencies rather than anything happening in Europe. Perhaps the markets are starting to discount a Chinese devaluation -- initially bearish for the yellow.

(Wed May 06 1998 13:38 - ID#26793)
We are on a gold standard, make no mistake about that. It is just not an official gold standard. Just because it is not sanctioned by the government does not meant that it does not exist in reality.

(Wed May 06 1998 13:38 - ID#32078)
Looking back/forward

I appreciate your comment. However, since no one has seen the future, it is a guess, an approximation, based on something. Even astrology is based on what happened in the past and the previous effects of planetary alignments, etc, and I consider a massive technical analysis program. All predictions ( except for dreams ) are based on an analysis of past events, measurements, conditions, etc, and even fundamental analysis is based on historical reference and mathematics.

This leaves the door open to those who use only hype, but that is the risk we take if we listen to fools.

Evaluation of who we each consider a 'fool' is but just another evaluation based on our individual judgment.

That's why I love this game.

(Wed May 06 1998 13:38 - ID#288157)
Mozel--The Princes at Davos Court
Magna Charta ( loose & sloppy useage perhaps ) to establish
what they see as their Global Rights...with regards to 'headquartering, cyber-commerce taxation,..well, there is quite a little list of 'rights'...princes at IMF? I think not.

(Wed May 06 1998 13:39 - ID#153102)
Re: story from Brazil. Common-law plea of necessity. Restricted in Constitution of West Virginia, but nowhere else that I know of.

(Wed May 06 1998 13:41 - ID#340302)
@SHAREFIN...again, I disagree with your thesis...
...regarding gold equities.

Once again, in America, the average shareholder holds NO gold stocks in his portfolio. Collusion amongst major mutual funds ( particularly bond funds ) ensures this is the case.

I do agree that those Wall Street pups who hold gold equities may wish to jettison them in a stock market panic.

However, please re-read my post today ( ATAVISM VS. INTELLETUALISM IN THE GOLD MARKET ) .

The atavistic reflex reaction of the elders "to go to gold" will preclude the young pup managers from selling their gold stocks. The elders will intervene and restrain them.

Remember, most funds today are run by young pups subject to elder oversight. Moreover, most of the significant monies in the markets belong to the elders simply because most of the significant fortunes in our society rest with them.

But even more importantly, I expect gold stocks to provide continued significant negative beta stock market performance. That type of contrarian performance in advance of a stock market debacle would act as a strong impetus sending even the young pups to gold in a crisis.




(Wed May 06 1998 13:43 - ID#238295)
Gold holding up much better than silver here. Now just 8% above its low; silver still some 40% above the trough.

Wouldn't you know it. Another bullish post from Vronsky followed by heavy pressure on the metals. Could a bearish post from Vronsky turn this market around?

(Wed May 06 1998 13:45 - ID#335190)
FWIW @ Trust your Central Banker ALL IS WELL, NOT TO WORRY. No Gold Sales!
May 5, 1998

Ottawa spent $340 million U.S. shoring up dollar

OTTAWA ( CP )  The Bank of Canada was forced to spend $340 million US last month defending the value of the Canadian dollar, the Department of Finance said Tuesday.

As an alternative to raising interest rates, the central bank frequently uses Ottawa's reserves of U.S. funds to buy up the Canadian dollar to shore up its value.

When the dollar hit an all-time low last January, the central bank spent $1.61 billion buying Canadian dollars. Overall, Ottawa's reserves fell $636 million U.S. to $21.78 billion because the government also reduced its foreign debt.

John Disney__A
(Wed May 06 1998 13:47 - ID#24135)
Randgold Resources and stop losses
For Polarbear ..
You are right .. The losses that
people panicked over were paper
losses on sales of stocks as well
as investment in the siama mine.
I believe the mine is financed
by a load from Randgold and will
ultimately be repaid in RRS stock.
I have the Resources results but
I havent really gone over them
with all the excitement in the
metals markets.
to all.
Lets see if golds falls like silver
did when it broke 6.00 when the
stop-losses trigger below 300.

(Wed May 06 1998 13:51 - ID#28593)
Tokyo market commentary--Forex Watcher
[06MAY98 13:42 JST]
After opening around 131.75 the dollar edged up to 132.05/10 on talk that dollar demand from Japanese corporates would be strong after long holidays. However, position adjustment on long dollars weighed on the US currency, bringing it down to as low as 131.55, and it recovered to a session high of 132.08 led by losses in the Nikkei 225 average. MOF's Kuroda said the yen was too weak, which did not have much effect on the market. Mr.Katoh, secretary-general of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party, was quoted as saying that it was questionable whether permanent tax cuts would boost Japanese economy.

Results of the survey: Trading ranges forecast for the week starting from May.4


(Wed May 06 1998 13:52 - ID#342315)
Sharefin re your URL
I think I'v got it now. At least I'm working on it. Thanx very much. Maybe we can make some money. Charlie

(Wed May 06 1998 13:52 - ID#340302) are a smart man...
...before such a U.S. dollar devaluation, the Japanese would sell huge amounts of US treasuries. They would position a large chunk in gold.

Therein lies the big surprise awaiting the short sellers of gold.




(Wed May 06 1998 13:53 - ID#238295)
Gold stock indexes holding up EXTREMELY WELL considering that POG is down over three bucks. This tells us something, I think, about the longevity of this drop in bullion.

(Wed May 06 1998 13:57 - ID#26793)
Suppose gold were $422 per ounce
and you were an oil producer who received $15.00 per barrell of oil now. With gold at $300 and oil at $15 you are receiving .05 ounces of gold per bbl. If the price of gold changes in currencies that is not your concern. You still demand .05 ounces of gold per bbl. If they want to wave a wand over the stuff and call it $422 you say OK and ask $21.10. It makes no difference to you because you are still getting .05 ounces as before.

Same with the tailor who makes the suit. The guy holding the bag is the person on the fixed income; pensions, Social Security and the like. Thus the government avoids a political time bomb. It reduces pension payments and Social Security payments WITHOUT HAVING TO VOTE FOR IT AND BE RUN OUT OF OFFICE. Business is delighted because their pension burden is
reduced, and so it goes. Is this likely to happen? You decide.

(Wed May 06 1998 13:57 - ID#244418)
Y2K: Il finito di commedia (The comedy is finished)

I just found the following three facts at the Gary North Y2K website:

1. The fiscal year 2000 for US corporations begins on February 1, 1999---just nine months away.

2. The head of remediation for the US Department of Defense says that

DOD has 209,000 non-compliant systems.

3. Ed Yourdon, mainframe computer guru, author of 24 books on programming, says in the May 4 issue of TechWeek, "The government of the US, as we currently know it, will fall on 1/1/2000. Period." ( This website gives you the

latest daily news and articles about the year 2000 computer crash.

Cage Rattler
(Wed May 06 1998 13:58 - ID#33184)
@John Disney - AIDS in South Africa
Actual experience will be a lot worse. Currently infection rates in Natal are just over 25%. The Western Cape has also accelerated alarming from the previous year - though still well under the rates experienced in Natal. ( I was involved in the design of the leading predictive AIDS model in South Africa and still have contact with its owners )

(Wed May 06 1998 14:01 - ID#340302)
@ALL...the gold short sellers are delirious today...
...they have seen the price drop to BELOW 300. Two years of gold short conviction regarding gold's imminent demise are being confirmed today.

Oh, it reminds me of the extreme euphoria gold longs experienced at 310.

Guess what it means?





(Wed May 06 1998 14:03 - ID#317193)
I pulled all my stops on the few contracts I have now. I'll average down at $295 and, if need be, $290 spot. Sooner or later the longs will not be shaken out. Tom

(Wed May 06 1998 14:05 - ID#335184)
Waiting on reality is a lot like waiting for Gadoux, but I will keep the faith with you.
Yes, the AU standard is indestructable & there is a limit to Orwellian oppression & double speak & price & market manipulation ( See: BEARDSTOWN LADIES SING THIS SONG, DO DA, DO DA @ KITCO @ 5/2/98 @ 23:38 ) , but until that day we must bide our time, stay protected & render unto Ceaser what is his. That Capurnican pardigmatic shift could happen in a twinkling of an eye or an electron, so I know you will stay rock steady !



(Wed May 06 1998 14:11 - ID#153102)
@Gold Short @Donald
It's a bag of do do. Either the bag is being handed off by moves down or they are buying time to patch up bullion banks.

Donald, if they sop up liquidity and hold Buy Back auctions for bonds for less than face value, I don't see the big domestic shock if they can PPT the market down. The Asian stuff is still coming in priced cheap.

(Wed May 06 1998 14:12 - ID#287193)
TYoung.......I do not want you to stop from lifting one.....,--just
checking in to thank you. With the Word 97 and your advise everything works super!

In your last post are you talking about gold commodity contracts?
June? Or?

(Wed May 06 1998 14:13 - ID#258142)
Current drop of Gold price was expected
First of all I want to say that everything in this message is related to short-term situation. I do not want to create any wrong feelings to medium and long-term investors.
I attach here a chart with Gold price shown as black line, plotted at the left vertical axes. Right vertical axes are used for "buy - sell" signals. Corresponding line is blue. When it is above 80 ( traditional, isnt it? ) we have sell signal, when it is blow 20 - we are in "buy" situation. I also placed some of my comments to this chart in red color.
In general, this chart combines "stochastics" method with some of my own ideas. As we can see, we where in sell situation last week.
I just returned from my trip to NY and had no chance to upgrade this chart with data of current week.

Gianni Dioro__A
(Wed May 06 1998 14:14 - ID#384350)
Abbey Cohen Strikes Back
New York ( PU ) ---Abbey Cohen squashed rumours that the upcoming meeting at the whitehouse with Mssrs. Greenspan and Rubin was anything but an amicable meeting.

She said, "No nothing's up. The president just thought the weather was quite nice, so he decided to call up his friends to arrange a polo match on the front lawn."

However, they are having problems finding ponies.

The president added, "Heck, I might just get up and ride a few interns around for awhile."

(Wed May 06 1998 14:15 - ID#258142)
PS - the chart

(Wed May 06 1998 14:17 - ID#213265)
@the scene
Old Gold -- Metals stock indexes look lousy from my perspective. XAU currently testing resistance and not even doing that well. Until they lead the pack back up, I believe stuff will be down. Looking for 298 June gold and 5.80 July silver. Then once again to watch the action. I'm open to surprises though.

How 'bout the sugar, cocoa and the grains today. Things are startin' to cook!

APH -- Sorry about the S&P. Spoos probably will at least close a gap to 1104 before much else. Yen 'should' move up shortly.

(Wed May 06 1998 14:18 - ID#377211)
lower highs and lower lows for the DOW
The DOW is exausted, and it is eroding slowly... the most dangerous type of slide in my book ( unrecognized by average Joe and Mary ) ... after 2-3 days of that... selling might accelerate... severely... Fascinating...
Good luck

(Wed May 06 1998 14:18 - ID#317193)
December futures contracts. I am buying time fo events to unfold. Tom

(Wed May 06 1998 14:23 - ID#335190)
Common-law plea of necessity. More like, street law. Corporate government representative's, have developed the law, and inflicted the pain in Brazil. Yes, the law of the street will prevail,until sanity, and balance returns.

Law is wonderful, if it is "reasonable" "Moral". Brazils' laws are in the heavens, ( economic heaven, academia ) not were the rubber hits the road.
Should one expect the law to protect the shop owner, the shop owner will lose eh!. As will the community standards. Hunger made them do it, or stated as IMF/BIS/CB economics made the people become hungry, and the shop keeper is expendable, as are the people.

Coming to a community near each of us. Yes, be prepared. Sad ! Greed made them do it? ( it=the powers to be? ) "It" is never satisfied with a quality of life, or the value of life. But, hell such is life.

Gold will shortly re-gain noticeable importance, and force "it" to do a reality check.

Life always goes forward, although we subject ourselves to the belief that these struggles of the people are negative actions, not so. Otherwise, North America would not have advanced to the level that exists to-day. Always forward, as a result of the lessons taught in the past.

Common-law and/or Street-law
FWIW...That is my street level take...Take Care.

(Wed May 06 1998 14:31 - ID#340302)
F*'s Evaluation of the GOLD market...
...good...real good.

** Gentlemen, my wife and I are flying out East today and I will not post again until sometime next week.

It has been a pleasure.




(Wed May 06 1998 14:35 - ID#26793)
I found an ad in Coin World where one dealer is offering the 1957 Silver Certificates in crisp uncirculated condition at $4.88. There was no information on the others. I suspect the 1934 series are worth a premium if uncirculated. I doubt the others are worth more than face value but I am not an expert by any means. Hope that helps a little.

(Wed May 06 1998 14:37 - ID#333127)
gold/sil stks
Today's action in gold and sil stks is a lot better than I would have guessed if I had known before hand what gold and sil would do. I'm a buyer.

(Wed May 06 1998 14:43 - ID#286230)
Tax Reduction, Deficit Reduction, Welfare Reduction, Maybe re election
Here is how its done:

(Wed May 06 1998 14:48 - ID#298259)
Some bills are uncirculated and some aren't. I may need to use some of them if this gold market doesn't improve soon. Of course they might come in handy around Y2K time also. Again, thanks for your efforts.

John Disney__A
(Wed May 06 1998 14:51 - ID#24135)
Ive been waiting for the wrong guy
Thanks Newtron
All this time Ive been waiting for Godot.
He never showed up. Gadoux has already been
here and left. He was looking for Russell.
For the Cage Rattler.
I know its becoming bad in the Western Cape.
But my impression is that it seems mainly
restricted to the township Blacks that
have moved here from Transkei. Doesnt seem
that widespead among the coloreds.

John Disney__A
(Wed May 06 1998 14:52 - ID#24135)
Ive been waiting for the wrong guy
Thanks Newtron
All this time Ive been waiting for Godot.
He never showed up. Gadoux has already been
here and left. He was looking for Russell.
For the Cage Rattler.
I know its becoming bad in the Western Cape.
But my impression is that it seems mainly
restricted to the township Blacks that
have moved here from Transkei. Doesnt seem
that widespead among the coloreds.

(Wed May 06 1998 14:53 - ID#289357)
Perhaps this has been posted before, but it's worth repeating...Guess Who?

"An almost hysterical antagonism toward the gold standard is one issue which

unites statists of all persuasions. They seem to sense, perhaps more clearly

and subtly than many consistent defenders of laissez-faire, that gold and

economic freedom are inseparable, that the gold standard is an instrument of

laissez-faire and that each implies and requires the other. In order to

understand the source of their antagonism, it is necessary first to understand

the specific role of gold in a free society."

"Even in the present century, two major commodities, gold and silver,

have been used as international media of exchange, with gold becoming the

predominant one. Gold, having both artistic and functional uses and being

relatively scarce, has always been considered a luxury good. It ( gold ) is durable,

portable, homogeneous, divisible, and, therefore, has significant advantages

over all other media of exchange."

"A free banking system based on gold is able to extend credit and thus to

create bank notes ( currency ) and deposits, according to the production

requirements of the economy. Individual owners of gold are induced, by

payments of interest, to deposit their gold in a bank ( against which they

can draw checks ) . But since it is rarely the case that all depositors want to

withdraw all their gold at the same time, the banker need keep only a fraction

of his total deposits in gold as reserves. This enables the banker to loan out

more than the amount of his gold deposits ( which means that he holds claims

to gold rather than gold as security for his deposits ) . But, the amount of loans

which he can afford to make is not arbitrary: he has to gauge it in relation to his

reserves and to the status of his investments."

"When gold is accepted as the medium of exchange by most or all nations,

an unhampered free international gold standard serves to foster a world-wide

division of labor and the broadest international trade. Even though the units of

exchange ( the dollar, the pound, the franc, etc. ) differ from country to country,

when all are defined in terms of gold the economies of the different countries

act as one- so long as there are no restraints on trade or on the

movement of capital."

"Under a gold standard, the amount of credit that an economy can support is

determined by the economy's tangible assets, since every credit instrument is

ultimately a claim on some tangible asset. But government bonds are not backed

by tangible wealth, only by government's promise to pay out of future tax

revenues, and cannot easily be absorbed by the financial markets."

"The abandonment of the gold standard made it possible for the welfare

statists to use the banking system as a means to an unlimited expansion of

credit. They have created paper reserves in the form of government bonds

which- through a complex series of steps- the banks accept in place of tangible

assets and treat as if they were an actual deposit, i.e., as the equivalent of what

was formerly a deposit of gold. The holder of a government bond or of a bank

deposit created by paper reserves believes that he has a valid claim on a real

asset. But the fact is that there are now more claims

outstanding than real assets."

"In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings

from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value. If there were,

the government would have to make its holding illegal, as was done in the case

of gold. If everyone decided, for example, to convert all his bank deposits to silver

or copper or any other good, and thereafter declined to accept checks as

payment for goods, bank deposits would lose their purchasing power and

government-created bank credit would be worthless as a claim on goods.

The financial policy of the welfare state requires that there be no way for the

owners of wealth to protect themselves."

"This is the shabby secret of the welfare statists' tirades against gold.

Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the 'hidden' confiscation of wealth.

Gold stands in the way of this insidious process. It stands as a protector

of property rights. If one grasps this, one has no difficulty in

understanding the statists' antagonism toward the gold standard."

from Capitalism: The Unknown Ideal by Ayn Rand

Published November, 1967 by Signet Paperback Books, NY, New York

Chapter 6. "Gold And Economic Freedom" by Alan Greenspan

Aragorn III
(Wed May 06 1998 14:53 - ID#212323)
Tol -cool- One... A comment from your earlier post--
"Gold never changes in value, the measure in paper is only in tandem with
the stupidity of those who allow themselves to be robbed. Simple
equation really; sad, but true."

I am confident that that quote will be the most power-packed bit o' prose that I shall encounter all week. Great synopsis in few words. Inspired.

I enjoyed pondering your dollar-to-wallpaper question and obviously had fun with my response. The truth is that the dollar is ALREADY wallpaper, it's just that most people don't yet know it.

A Jell-O sea anchor... rich... priceless... The smile widens.

(Wed May 06 1998 14:59 - ID#238295)
gold stocks
Rube: Agree absolutely about gold and silver stock action. XAU is 10% higher than I would have expected with POG at $300. Someone with BIG POCKETS is looking beyond this little valley. Also interesting that gold did not plunge further once $300 was penetrated. I am not quite ready to start buying gold stocks again yet, but the trigger finger is getting itchy.

John B__A
(Wed May 06 1998 15:00 - ID#258142)
Delphi (PS - the chart) ID#258142:
Delphi, your chart looks most interesting. What is the oscillator though - from what is it derived? Thanks,

(Wed May 06 1998 15:02 - ID#31868)
Glad to see you got home well and without mishap. Next time I assure you Sheller and I will be prepared in our schedules. Did you get to the big Mall?

(Wed May 06 1998 15:04 - ID#333127)
I bought Fid Sel Am Gld at 3 O'clock price. Waiting now to buy a plat. stk.

(Wed May 06 1998 15:07 - ID#335184)
That Gadot ( The US DEBT DRIVEN HOUSE OF CARDS ) committed suicide while you were waiting for him. He will never show up.
Thank you for correcting my illiterate fox paw/malapropisim. I am the worst speller in the Kitco closet.
Were you severely potty trained as a small child ? : ) ) )



(Wed May 06 1998 15:08 - ID#31868)
AragornIII - best line last month from John Disney - "training mine"
This month, so far sharefin - "notional paper" - I am sorry to say the crew we sent after Yossarian has not reported back. Early reports offer no news, none. In fact we have not heard from the rescue craft.

There is no telling what Yossarian may have talked them into. Will keep you posted.

(Wed May 06 1998 15:16 - ID#230216)
TA *IS* invaluable when used *in concert* with other indicators......It is one of my MOST crucial entry/exit 'tools'. YES. Used solo, TA can kill ya sometimes but I still like my odds....I would always pick a good TA guy/gal live AND die by TA....or *with* a little T and A.....uh huh.


Lurker 777
(Wed May 06 1998 15:16 - ID#317247)
Did you hear the one about the JEW and....

I guess you believe I am a idiot. Hmmmm Would you like to know how I really feal about JEWS? DON'T START ME!

The last time I heard anything as mindless as your long rambling dissertation of numerology was when Oral Robert said the Lord told him to raise $8 million or he was going to die. Personnaly I would have been happy to send flowers. But a lot of idiots sent him money.

(Wed May 06 1998 15:21 - ID#289357)

Methinks you could find a certain Yosarian in charge of the Fed....also caught in a Catch 22 with no easy way out.

(Wed May 06 1998 15:21 - ID#342315)
Midwesterner re AYM
I just had a nice call with George and I found my old Kirkland Lake Report by Ontario Dept of Mines ( 1931 ) . Aym is in a greenstone area. This is a metamorphic volcanic which is conducive to ore as a host rock.
The old report shows greenstone in the Shonia Lake area which is NW of AYM across Lake St. Joseph. Evidently the greenstone is widespread
and probably came with the plate from the SE. The Kirkland Lake area is 500m E of AYM, but this structural array is available because of extensive glaciation. The Kirkland Lake area is important because the associated Tellurides helped in increasing gold values. Their are Tellurides at AYM's property due to the hydrothermal activity as at Kirkland Lake. More needs to be done on the tellurides, especially where outcrops are available. I suggested that they spend a couple of days with a dozer scraping overburden for better observation. If field work can expand the location of the veins ( hydrothermal ) they can check for the tellurides. Also, the work under the 3 mile bay is a strong possibility for a massive sulfide extension. The work should be going on shortly with results showing up in June?July. To recap, there are 2 distinct types of deposits possible. One, the massive Sulfide and @ two, the hydrothermal system ( veins ) . From indications to date it looks like a hell of a gamble

(Wed May 06 1998 15:25 - ID#31868)
SilverBaron - yes, it is true - painted into the proverbial corner
and I think pretty soon the markets will just do what markets do, eventually they correct no matter what anyone thinks or does.

Lurker 777
(Wed May 06 1998 15:26 - ID#317247)
Spell check:
feal should be feel ( to believe or think )

(Wed May 06 1998 15:27 - ID#375108)
Old Gold & Rube
I'm with you two in being surprised at gold stock action today. As of about 3:25, XAU -1.1%, HUI -1.5%, TSE Gold Index -1.2%. Several TSE stocks I'm watching have been strengthening significantly as the afternoon wears on...

(Wed May 06 1998 15:28 - ID#368244)
@ Polarbear

Lets see now, sell 62000 @ 1 3/8, buy back 62000 @ an average of 1 5/32, would you do the math and tell me how this is ignorance.

This is assuming you think it is a good buy.

(Wed May 06 1998 15:33 - ID#266105)
@federal debt paydown

LGB ( U.S. go in REVERSE???? ) ID#269409:
Hmmm, this may be a first in decades. The treasury expects to be paying DOWN the U.S. debt by 110 billion in the current quarter due to a huge increase in tax revenues brought about by the ULTRA strong U.S. economy.


From yesterday's WSJ;5/5/98;A2.

"Separately, The Treasury Dept. said yesterday that it will pay
off a record $110B of federal-government debt in the April-to-June
period because of an unanticipated 'improvement in budget receipt.'
The previous record was a $71.5B reduction in debt outstanding
in last year's April-to-June quarter."


The debt outstanding typically reduces around the time of
April tax collections. A review of Treasury accounting figures
at the Treasury webpage indicates a reduction in debt outstanding
of $12B in the second quarter, April-to-June of 1997, rather than
the purported previous record last year of a $71.5B reduction in
debt outstanding, a 595% discrepancy.

The claimed 1998 paydown of $110B in the current quarter in
June will reveal a similar discrepancy of 600% between claimed
paydown and actual according to the Treasury Dept. figures.
These discrepancies have to do with trust fund accounting,
the difference between how they are reported and how they
are recorded.

John Disney__A
(Wed May 06 1998 15:34 - ID#24135)
I was never potty trained at all
As a small child I cr@pped freely on
everything and everybody. I have not
changed much in that regard despite the
passage of time.

Aragorn III
(Wed May 06 1998 15:34 - ID#212323)
Argent.... a small but important point of clarification
In response to the general topic of US$ revaluation with gold at $422, you wrote "... HOW can the dollar be DEVALUED! Compared to WHAT? Isn't that what fiat currencies are all about??? Their value is declared by FIAT ( government edict ) . The value is what they ( the government ) SAYS it is! Which is WHAT???!!! Nice ploy if you can get away with it and governments do and are!"

Although I am certain you know this, and your wording was just a lapse, I want to clarify a point so that others are not left with the wrong idea ('s all about clearing the mist, you know... ) .

The dollar *value* is NOT declared by fiat as you stated. The dollar is simply declared a *legal tender* by fiat ( government edict ) . The *value* of the dollar is decided by consensus by all those who engage in transactions that involve the dollar. Its value is exactly worthless if no one will accept it as payment. But due to the legal tender mandate, it MUST be accepted for all debts, public and private. So, what's a boy to do when deep in your heart you know the dollar for what it is? You price the debt outrageously high in dollar terms ( this ACTUALLY happens through inflation, albeit gradually ) and give a reasonable alternative for settlement, such as a small gold coin. The Govt has no direct control over the value of the dollar, so they do their best to control and influence the sheep that *use* the dollar.

(Wed May 06 1998 15:37 - ID#342315)
BILLD and Allan
Talked to BCMD just now and they said they are doing a reverse split effective Fri. The stock dropped to a 1/4. Why I dont know, but there was 2+ million shares traded. A good time to add on. The main reason for my call was to qualify the telluride potential. I have not yet been able to talk to the field geologist, but I got the impression that most of them are in their 40'S. What this means is they don't have enough experience with a sneaky mineral to qualify it. Their ore has in some areas tens of oz/ton. This is an indication that TE could be involved. They are not that far from Grass Valley which is "loaded" with TE. I'm waiting for a geologist to call. They got $15 million to continue exploration and development. I'll let you know as it comes in, Charlie

(Wed May 06 1998 15:37 - ID#269409)
@ Missing Link
Hey Miss.... you said;

"Date: Wed May 06 1998 13:19 themissinglink ( LGB ) ID#373403:
You been bashin' gold and promotin' silver for the past year. Welcome to the jungle buddy!"

I say..... you're 100% correct that I've been more bullish on silver than Gold for the past year. That's why I moved a hefty percentage of my cash net worth into the stuff at $4.25 to $4.40 per Oz. ( A move I announced here way back when, here, and publicly ) .

Since then we have silver sitting ( as of today ) at a profit of approx. 36% as Gold has continued it's precipitous fall. I made 36% while Gold bulls continued to get killed as they have for 18 years...."Welcome to the jungle?"

If my bullishness on Gold and bearishness on Silver the past year is ushering me into the "jungle" ...I hope I go DEEPER and DEEPER into that jungle for many years to come!

(Wed May 06 1998 15:43 - ID#223391)
@Did we forget Bosnia/Hertzogovenia?
Look for increasing instability. Clinton's foreign policy weakness may be coming home to roost.

John Disney__A
(Wed May 06 1998 15:45 - ID#24135)
Are you being sensitive enough??
For RT
It appears your recent remarks may have
offended some of my more sensitive acquaintances.
They may ask me what to do. I will tell them to
grow up, go away and not to bother me with that
kind of baloney. You should maybe do the same
with your sensitive friends.

(Wed May 06 1998 15:51 - ID#153102)
@Aragorn @6Pak
Yes, inflation is how people resist fiat. That is why the last bout nearly brought the paper palace down.

The federal legal tender statutes govern only those transactions which the federal can take jurisdiction of like federal tax payments, federal guaranteed mortgages, and the like. If people wanted to resist payment with FRN in the States, there is a lot of ammunition in the law.

@6Pak Up is the direction toward the greater light.

John Disney__A
(Wed May 06 1998 15:52 - ID#24135)
The 36 % solution
for the Leaky Gum Boot.
36 per cent is peanuts .. Harmony
is up 150 % in about 6 months. Im
underwhelmed. Tell me all about

(Wed May 06 1998 15:53 - ID#258142)
tolerant1, John B__A
tolerant1: Everything was fine, thanks. Hope to see you one day.

John B__A: Chart derived from "stochastics", daily low, high and close values are used to produced it.

(Wed May 06 1998 15:56 - ID#304282)
Late Rush to the Exits this afternoon.
Who shouted fire?

(Wed May 06 1998 15:59 - ID#238422)
Brother Tom, sorry for my screw-up in forecasting
POG for today. I feel ashamed and shocked. I'll
find the guilty ones, who didn't buy enough gold
today to move it up, and drink them to death...

(Wed May 06 1998 16:05 - ID#238422)
John Disney\from my life experience in Russia

Sensativity is the sign of weakness or wish for
respect, and depends upon number of drinks consumed...

You're right, my brother, like usual...

What is your POG forecast for May?

(Wed May 06 1998 16:06 - ID#246224)
Hatred in any form is still hatred.
Please let's not attack each other over religion or race. This is not the place for that ( if there is any place at all ) . We are here because we are interested in understanding precious metals and their respective markets. Obviously people will share their views which include some references to their cultures and/or religious beliefs. Any outright campaigning is understood to be out of line. But we must retain civility with each other even as we might disagree. Civility is not the same thing as political correctness. It is being respectful to those with who you interact, whether you agree with them or not. It means learning to say "I disagree" without spitting it into the other persons face with venom.

Typically we get a bit nasty if gold dumps on us. Let's try to recognize this and try extra hard to not destroy each other, OK? Thanks!

Mike Stewart
(Wed May 06 1998 16:06 - ID#270253)
We have a bullish hammer on the daily XAU candlesticks. Promising for the next few days.

(Wed May 06 1998 16:08 - ID#238295)
Novice: The gold stock indexes improved further in late trading. I bought a modest amount of the Gabelli Gold Fund today. The gold stock action is about the best I have ever seen when bullion is tanking. Something big is brewing methinks.

(Wed May 06 1998 16:19 - ID#317193)
@ALLEN 16:06
Just who the H*LL are you to tell us what we should already know but seem to sometimes forget? ; ) DITTO!! Well put.


(Wed May 06 1998 16:23 - ID#269409)
@ Predictions...insider info......brilliant analysis
Always instructive to go back a few days and see what pans out with the "inside info." from the "experts". Now...I hope for the sake of all PM investors, that this "Short squeeze" doesn't continue much longer or all our "shorts" will be squeezed into bunches!

Date: Mon Apr 27 1998 10:44
farfel ( @ALL...please prepare yourselves for a little delight.. ) ID#340302:
...a concerted gold short squeeze is in the works. Try and get on board before the upspike.

Gentlemen, you WILL enjoy the ride.


Mike Stewart
(Wed May 06 1998 16:25 - ID#270253)
Gold vs Indices
On the weekend Old Gold/Carl and I had different interpretations of the Xau vs gold. I viewed them as short term overbought two weeks ago, but long term neutral. I have continued looking at this and feel that extended/overbought XAU/Gold relationships over short sample periods ( under one year ) are very bullish. This is usually a leading indicator.

Long term Overbought ratios ( over a 5 year sample of ratios ) are sell signals. We are not even close to one of those.

(Wed May 06 1998 16:26 - ID#269409)
@ Allen...
Amen....funny how folks start changin the subject when they get testy!

(Wed May 06 1998 16:26 - ID#213265)
@the scene
Old Gold -- If gold were to stop this slide, now would be a good time! Breakage of this 301 June level bites! Oldmans number is correct. And yes, the XAU did somewhat better since my last posting. Seems there just might be a case made should it expand its horizons above 86.25. I do like the fact that it went up while the rest of the market took a dive. I just want to see it begin to lead the metals up again.

(Wed May 06 1998 16:29 - ID#14431)
third the motion by Allen-USA

As a constant lurker, I third the motion by Allen-USA. There is so much wonderful information posted by all of you; it's a stark contrast to some of the other stuff.

It's interesting to watch the ebb and flow of thoughts ( not ANOTHER's ) here. It is so good, and then it sometimes gets "less tolerant." A lot like life I guess!

One thing to say for sure. I am hooked; I flat-out feel bereft without being albe to access you erudite contibutors at KITCO! For those who contribute here, I thank you. Know that at least one watches and learns, and has bought gold for the first time in his life, because of you.

Thanks, Fergie

(Wed May 06 1998 16:31 - ID#20748)
Alice Rivlin

(Wed May 06 1998 16:32 - ID#317193)
There you go again trying to make people responsible for what they say! The kitchen does get hot sometimes.


(Wed May 06 1998 16:32 - ID#252150)
You're right! Who the hell needs TA when Viagra is available?

(Wed May 06 1998 16:34 - ID#375108)
Old Gold
Indeed, gold stocks in pretty steady hands today. As you say, the indexes continued improving ( the TSE Gold & Precious Metals index closed off only 1.0% ) . Still a bit cautious ( after the past 2+ rough years.... ) . Gone for now...

(Wed May 06 1998 16:36 - ID#269409)
DissedKnee...150% ? ...Chump change for Mickey Mouse
I'm supposed to be impressed with 150% in a few months? KTEL is up Two thousand Eight Hundred percent, 2800%, in two weeks. I thought the discussion was about Gold & Silver...if we get into shares, Gold or otherwise, then it's apples & oranges...If we're going to look at apples & oranges, I got some nice Watermelons.

So I'll just check out some of my favorite High tech. shares and we'll see how "Harmony's" relative performance has been, benchmarked of course at increments of 3 months and going back a few years eh? And compare it's performance with Intel, Microsoft, et al...Don't make me laugh......

(Wed May 06 1998 16:36 - ID#213265)
@the scene
I think I'm going to do this: IF June gold should see 298 or thereabout tonight/tomorrow, I'll buy it. Something near that number puts it right on the trendline formed by the two previous lows. One should probably expect no more than a fairly quick spike should it happen. If it gets down there and roosts, then all bets on it are off.

Later all....

(Wed May 06 1998 16:39 - ID#213265)
@the scene
One small clarification. I believe Oldmans number of 301 was on a closing basis. If not, oh well...

(Wed May 06 1998 16:39 - ID#224363)
Interesting action today....
It seems to me that the very wide difference in the movement of bullion and XAU stocks is due to a couple of things.

1 ) The Dow/TSE tanked today as investors got jittery and I think some of that money went into XAU stocks.

2 ) The downward pressure that dropping bullion has on these stocks seems to have been mitigated by ( 1 )

3 ) If bullion jumps ( a good jump...not a crappy $1-$2 ) in the next 2-3 days, I think we will have tremendous surge in XAU stocks. ( Provided that Mr. Dow and Ms. TSE don't shoot through the roof again ) .

Of course what do I know...I've been buying gold stocks since last july.

(Wed May 06 1998 16:40 - ID#153102)
@6Pak @SDRer
What the Prince Corporations want immunity from: ( Did I ever tell ya about the suit in Texas against John D Rockefeller ( 1898 ) ; ran to federal papa for protection ) . The Multi-Lateral Treaty Robnoel has warned about is to immunize the Prince Corporations internationally like the 14th Amendment immunized them here in the States. ( No Magna Charata for the common man here, SDRer. )
Toby Harshaw
Letters Editor
New York, NY

Subject: Letter to the editor Re. "Argentina to Seek Extradition of 2
from U.S." ( 5/5/98 )

Dear Sir,

Sometimes, silence speaks louder than words. The New York Times' silence in
identifying the four IBM executives whose extradition the Argentine judge is
seeking is only superseded by your editors' efforts to hide their corporate
identity. There was no mention of IBM in your headline, "Argentina to Seek
Extradition of 2 Executives from U.S." No wonder that this story,
the bluest of the Wall Street "blue chips," was relegated to the inside pages
( page A8 ) of your May 5 edition.

Why? Because IBM's chairman serves on the New York Times board of directors?
Or is it because of the Big Blue's vast advertising budget?

When Truth in Media questioned today your Buenos Aires reporter, Clifford
Krauss, who filed the story, about why he failed to disclose the identities of
the four IBM executives - given that the Argentine judge is presiding over a
public court, and that IBM is a public company - your reporter sheepishly
replied that he "did not want to besmirch their ( IBM ) names in the press."

Wow! Whatever happened to the New York Times motto - "All the news that's fit
to print?"

Lest your latest abuse of our ( American ) freedom of the press is not crystally
clear, your reporter ( or editor? ) seems to be preempting an Argentine federal
judge's opinion who had publicly stated ( according to your story ) , that he
would "ask Interpol to capture them ( these unnamed, 'untouchable' IBM
executives ) with or without the assistance of the U.S. government."

Now, why for God's sake would you do a fool thing like that in this "land of
the free and of the brave?" Does the New York Times no longer adhere to its
motto: "All the news that's fit to print?" And if not, why not take it off
your masthead? It's an insult to your readers' intelligence, anyway.

And while you're at it, why not rename your paper the "New York Pravda?"
or "Big Blue" Pravda? Who cares. You're not fooling anyone who has read the
Soviet Pravda, anyway. It's the same old censorship; the same old
brainwashing... Only done in English rather than in Russian.


Bob Djurdjevic

(Wed May 06 1998 16:42 - ID#224363)

Even you have to admit that K-Tel and 2,800% is insane...

(Wed May 06 1998 16:43 - ID#20748)
Gold and silver
Weakness in gold is because options settle this coming Friday. 305 and 300 are the the price targets for short sellers.
Street buzz is that Goldman Sachs was the big seller of silver, liquidating a long position.

(Wed May 06 1998 16:44 - ID#317193)
Brother oris
Is no problem. Beer with pickles is not so good. However the pickles must have made me afraid these last two days and no dumb moves made. Maybe bad pickles? Good for making a "gut" feeling? To much thought!

Time for important elbow exercising. Hate to say this but the gut says a rebound . The question is whether it is before option expiry or after. Mind says after-gut says before. Do I sound as confused as it appears?

Went Gold...or something like that!


(Wed May 06 1998 16:50 - ID#256326)
If you look at life of contract GCM8 or cash, the action from January has the force of a fart in a wind storm. A nice little abc rally in a long term bear market. All us techie types who are wannabe goldbugs have been getting a little too close to the action. ( It wasn't me, it was the dog. )

I mean you can still say we're in wavelet 2 of a larger wave 3 up. We have taken back 57% of said wavelet 1, and anything is possible for a wave two up to 99.99%. But the fingernails are slipping off the cliff guys.....I hope the ropes hold.

(Wed May 06 1998 16:50 - ID#153102)
Future Headline: Goldman buys Merrill ( left holding a bag of do do today ) ?

(Wed May 06 1998 16:51 - ID#280245)
This IS interesting...
This is supposedly the coin intended to be the first Gold Coin of/for Euro ? And the right to sell/purchase was gained by the drawing lots!?

MDM bills their operation as the largest money ( coin ) dealership in the world ( ? ) .

What appears to be TRUE
( 1 ) this IS a different EURO coin, and not yet 'released'

( 2 ) MDM says that this coin too is from France.

( 3 ) MDM seems to say that this coin is intended to be the first GOLD Euro coin.

( 4 ) Ive emailed them for info.

Interestinger and interestinger.

They may be pointed in the direction of the old Latin Monetary Union.

(Wed May 06 1998 16:53 - ID#347235)
@ Lurker 777, john disney
Lurker, your opinion of Jews means about as much to me as a pimple on a gnats @ss. If you want to waste money like that its oyur business, personally I buy gold.

John, Guess they arent all as tough as us.

(Wed May 06 1998 16:55 - ID#256326)
I posted a MER study ( technical but relevant to your remark ) at another site today, but I'm not sure Bart would find it gold-related.I could email it if anyone is interested.

(Wed May 06 1998 16:58 - ID#269409)
@ MF (@LGB) Ktel price insane
MF ( @LGB ) ID#224363: Even you have to admit that K-Tel and 2,800% is insane...

I'd not only admit it, but shout it from the rooftops...!

(Wed May 06 1998 17:00 - ID#255217)
Aragorn III...I stand corrected
You are absolutely correct. I realized that my statements were not exactly true when I made them, but I was too lazy to split hairs. The dollar IS legal tender. However, as you point out, its value is determined in the marketplace. Hard to slip anytrhing by on this forum. I accept your correction in the vein in which it was intended.

(Wed May 06 1998 17:01 - ID#346458)
chas - 15:21 - Allegheny --- Heck of a gamble....
I take it the "gamble" you refer to for Allegheny Mining is positive, right? If so, this is beginning to sound better all the time, wouldn't you say? Then perhaps retirement for me is just around the cornor.

(Wed May 06 1998 17:04 - ID#269409)
@ 2BRO2B...your 15:33...I don't think so
If you're 15:33 is meant to imply that the Treasury is acting in a "business as usual" mode, re current debt financing, and that the $110 billion paydown has little meaning...than I must refer you to the following;

Wednesday May 6, 4:37 pm Eastern Time

Stunned US bond mkt cheers Treasury's supply cuts

By Steven Scheer

NEW YORK, May 6 ( Reuters ) - Stunned by the U.S. Treasury's decision to significantly cut back its debt auctions, bond
market participants hailed the radical move as necessary for a government flush with cash. A reduction in government supply
had been expected as projections for a budget surplus grew.

But the drastic changes the Treasury made on Wednesday to its debt financing schedule in cutting the three-year note and
moving the five-year note auction to quarterly from monthly shocked even the most wishful thinkers with the timing and
extent of the alterations.

``I am a little shocked that they did both, eliminating threes and reducing the frequency of fives,'' said Douglas Schindewolf,
money market economist at Salomon Smith Barney Inc. ``But budget surpluses are going to persist long enough to warrant
changes like this. There was no need to hold back any longer.''

Indeed, for the first time in decades, a federal budget surplus -- somewhere in the $43 billion to $63 billion neighborhood,
according to the Congressional Budget Office ( CBO ) -- appears likely in fiscal 1998. Meanwhile, the cutting of the three-year
note auction come the third quarter will be first since the seven-year note was eliminated in May of 1993.

The result of the Treasury's changes will be a reduction of about $75 billion in supply, taking into account a $3 billion-a
month increase in two-year note auction sizes. That number could be less if weekly bill sale sizes are increased.

``This means bills are the only instrument the Treasury can ( use to ) fine-tune borrowing needs,'' said Patrick Dimick,
Treasury market strategist at UBS Securities LLC, adding that they can no longer alter three-year notes while five-year notes
will only be offered four times a year.

Dimick and other analysts said a change in debt financing was necessary but the Treasury may have gone too far.

``By doing this they are putting their faith in the sustainability of a budget ( surplus ) ,'' Dimick said. ``I am shocked they were
this radical.

``We know what the tax receipts have done the last few years but I thought they would wait another quarter or two before
doing this,'' he said.

By altering its schedule, the Treasury, for the most part, helps Treasuries by adding badly needed liquidity into bills and
two-year notes. Some players noted bill rates and two-year note yields have been kept down in response to the heavy demand
and ever-shrinking supply.

Consequently, rates at the front end should gradually rise, analysts said.

(Wed May 06 1998 17:08 - ID#342315)
Midwesterner re AYM
Yes, positive+. I should have made that a little clearer. If I could get there
I could put in more detail. I don/t know your schedule for retirement, but it's possible. If you have any questions, let me know, Charlie

(Wed May 06 1998 17:08 - ID#335184)
dit,dit,dit,datdatdat,ditditdit - DONALD
Can any one suggest a good URL to follow prices on S&P LONG TERM index options. Also XAU index options & AU futures ?





(Wed May 06 1998 17:11 - ID#280245)
Mozel--Magna Charta's are pretty thin on the ground...

I watched on local news last night as homeowners begged, in a public forum, to be ALLOWED to return to their homes.

Because of your posts, the length and breadth and depth of the obscenity made this viewing extremely painful, in greater part because ACCEPTANCE of the necessity to beg was divorced from consciousness of is this MY property or not?. Magna Chartas for the Common Man? We had one once...and maybe, maybe if you educate enough people. ...

Dave in CO
(Wed May 06 1998 17:12 - ID#229103)
K-TEL - P/E = 90 - average for the NASDAQ
Anyone know the symbol for WHAM-O?

(Wed May 06 1998 17:14 - ID#43460)
KTEL et cetera
Well, the tone of the posts this afternoon, KTEL war stories and the small dip in metals prices prompt me to post this link. There is no implication that it should involve any particular poster, but those who find it interesting might want to peruse the 20 questions.

(Wed May 06 1998 17:19 - ID#252150)
ABX@Looking strong today & only lost 1/8
It is strongly entrenched in it's up trend channel & does'nt look like it's in any danger of breaking below it. If I had the nerve I'd buy some GCM8s on tomorrows open. My luck may be changing. My Cdn Y2K stock is up $3 on no news the last few days & was halted @ 1 PM. OTOH, who knows, it could be bad news.

(Wed May 06 1998 17:24 - ID#20748)
Entirely possible. Goldman has access to vital information, and the funds needed to execute their plans.

(Wed May 06 1998 17:25 - ID#57232)
The future of gold, and the future of the markets
The future of gold: Interesting comments today. I have no intention of getting too involved with gold technical trends while a Chinese devaluation Tsunami is looming over us. Afterwards we may do quite well. Something is also up with bearish rumors of rising interest rates in Europe, with an interest rate hike 'scare' in the USA. This does not make sense. Now that the Euro is about to go on line, the logical thing to expect is a loosening of credit in Europe, since the budget tightening is over.

The future of the markets ( somewhat longer term than the China devaluation ) :

Farfel may be right that we are heading into stagflation into the US -- I have gathered from other reading that our service-oriented labor pool is about as tight as it can get, so rising labor costs are likely soon. Also the goods Tsunami has not yet materialized, partially because the SEAsian countries that have experienced deflation are in no condition to produce anything significant. Oil seems to be bottoming. This scenario also fits with that of D.A. who has been expousing inflation when most of us were worried about deflation.

One other question we have to consider is the local US political situation. So assume BC and AG meet -- AG says that he must raise US interest rates a bit because the US markets are out of control, and if he does not do this, we may have an uncontrollable bubble growth followed by a crash. AG will then say that he cannot raise interest rates 'too much' anyway because of concerns about Asia.

BC counters by saying if the markets crash, he presidency is history. Then he says that we certainly cannot raise rates now.

So -- we are in a fix similar to that just before 1929 -- no easy solution. If AG seriously tries to stop the market bubble now, he risks precipitating a depression, as well as finishing BC's political career. If he does nothing, he risks a depression some time later.

All AG has to do is use the Goldlocks approach with the money supply -- not too hot, and not too cold. I think I will keep my day job.

(Wed May 06 1998 17:25 - ID#317193)
LGB-bond market?
US bond market: LGB sounds wonderful but not sure I believe our friendly federal government. If Japan is selling and the FED is monetizing is this not a reduction of the outstanding supply of the bond market?

Not my area, just asking.


(Wed May 06 1998 17:26 - ID#26793)
Dow/Gold Ratio = 30.11 This is the third straight day of movement in the goldbug direction.

(Wed May 06 1998 17:28 - ID#26793)
XAU/Spot Ratio = .284 The 50 day moving average is .266

(Wed May 06 1998 17:30 - ID#26793)
Gold/Silver Ratio = 50.85

(Wed May 06 1998 17:36 - ID#26793)
Heard somewhere that 75% of the stock in this company is held by one shareholder.

(Wed May 06 1998 17:36 - ID#269409)
Vintage ANOTHER....early March, 98
ANOTHER said.... " A large purchase, now, is sending another message, "bring gold back into $320 to
$360 US$ range. We should see this in five to ten days. This will be a hard thing, as it may create a crush to cover. Let us watch this "new gold market", as it is not as before

I say.....for a market "Not as before"'s Gold market sure looks familiar. Have 5 to 10 days passed yet, since March?

(Wed May 06 1998 17:39 - ID#26793)
Magna Charta
How many people do I upset by saying the correct spelling is Magna Carta?

(Wed May 06 1998 17:49 - ID#22882)
IF you believe the $110 billion debt paydown, consider that

that $110 billion is just ( .2 of 1% ) of
$5.5 billion.
And why we need reverse spinner's to talk down the bull.

(Wed May 06 1998 17:49 - ID#238295)
Mike Stewart: Your interpretation of the XAU/POG relationship was indeed the correct one. I suspect that gold stock investors recognize that much of the downward pressure on bullion this week is options related and temporary.

Who knows perhaps gold stocks will someday repeat the performance of the oil stocks which surged as the price of black gold fell sharply. Restructuring and ruthless cost cutting can work wonders in the equity markets.


(Wed May 06 1998 17:50 - ID#26793)
Biggest bang in the universe recorded (science news, not politics

(Wed May 06 1998 17:51 - ID#317193)
At least you could quote ANOTHER accurately if your going to beat this ( dead ) horse again. I agree that the statement appears to be a prediction on the price of gold but we both know that is not what was said. See March 9,1998.

BTW did you say silver was going up today?


(Wed May 06 1998 17:52 - ID#254269)
@ Explorer; Re your 17.49. You mean we didn't even make the minimum payment
on our national credit card ?

(Wed May 06 1998 17:56 - ID#28594)
Donald--Only the Random House Unabridged...
I too was a Carta person...Random House said Charta...
but they are out of business yes? Shall we do it our way? {:- ) )

(Wed May 06 1998 18:01 - ID#26793)
Besides the fact that I was there, Runnymeade June 15, 1215, doesn't Magna Carta mean something like "Large Letter" or "Large Document" in Latin? Aurator will know.

(Wed May 06 1998 18:04 - ID#26793)
Your IMF tax dollars at work in Korea

(Wed May 06 1998 18:10 - ID#36977)
Donald/SDRer@Magna Charta
Webster's New Collegiate dictionary has Charta preferred, Carta optional, meaning Great Charter. BBL

(Wed May 06 1998 18:14 - ID#26793)
S&P downgrades 8 Thailand financial institutions; unable to raise capital etc.

(Wed May 06 1998 18:17 - ID#269409)
@ Tyoung
Actually Tom, I quoted ANOTHER verbatim. I think his meaning was clear enough. A "big buyer" giving the message that the Oil for Gold bid would be pushing the price into the $320-$360 range, and creating a new market...something that clearly didn't happen.

Now as to Silver predictions, no I didn't predict higher price today. I said that I'm getting long term bullish based on fundamentals and would be buying more....... I don't trade in derivitaves...not enough money or gambler blood in me. When I like silver, I'm talking about 1 to 2 years out. It's up 37% from my buy price, it'll be up a lot more a year from now.

(Wed May 06 1998 18:18 - ID#256326)
Great Charter, as in contract, constitution, etc.

(Wed May 06 1998 18:19 - ID#26793)
Sort of like centre and harbour that my Canadian friends spell wrong.

(Wed May 06 1998 18:23 - ID#269409)
Psssst...Silver up one cent overseas!
dnesday May 6, 4:45 pm Eastern Time

NY precious metals end mostly lower on good volume

NEW YORK, May 6 ( Reuters ) - COMEX and NYMEX precious metals futures ended
mostly lower Wednesday on good volumes.

``Interest rate worries in Europe, renewed concern about weak Asian demand and some
technical weakness, contributed to some liquidation of stale long positions in gold and
silver,'' said Dinsa Mehta, managing director for global commodities at Chase Manhattan
in New York.

COMEX June gold ended down $3.00 an ounce at $301.60, after slipping to a five week
low at $300.70.

Total COMEX gold volume was estimated at 40,000 lots.

In the bullion market, spot gold ended quoted $300.50/00, compared to the London
Wednesday afternoon fix at $301.00 and the New York close Tuesday around $303.10/60.

Implied gold lease rates were little changed around 0.95 pct per annum for one month and
1.95 pct for 12 months.

``But the news from Europe remains positive for gold, with it becoming clear that the
threat of further European central bank gold sales is fading, now EMU and the ECB are
becoming a reality,'' Chase's Mehta said.

The focus in the gold market remains on European Monetary Union ( EMU ) and how
much gold the European Central Bank ( ECB ) will hold in its reserves when it takes over
EU monetary policy from January 1, 1999.

Market expectations are for the ECB to hold about 10-20 pct of its reserves in gold and
Belgian Central Bank Governor Verplaetse said Tuesday there was a chance that ECB
council members could hold their first meeting on June 2.

In addition, the question of whether European central banks will be allowed to sell or lend
their remaining gold reserves continues to weigh on the market, analysts said.

COMEX July silver ended down 19.0 cents an ounce at $5.918 an ounce, after trading
down to a six week low at $5.880. Total COMEX silver volume was estimated at 23,000

In the bullion market, spot silver ended quoted $5.91/94, compared to the London
Wednesday fix at $6.0775 and the New York close Tuesday around $6.11/14.

In the platinum group metals ( PGM ) markets, NYMEX July platinum ended off $3.00 an
ounce at $395.00, giving back Tuesday's gains, while NYMEX June palladium ended up 35
cents at $307.35, after jumping $6.50 Tuesday.

Implied lease rates for palladium eased to around 130 pct from around 200 pct per annum
for one month.

``But there's very little activity in the physical PGM markets,'' said one dealer at a US

``The panic of the past month has eased, but there are still no shipments of metal from
Russia,'' he said.

Russia, which is the largest producer of palladium in the world, and the second largest
producer of platinum, has not exported either metal so far this year, sending prices
soaring as a result.

Russian exports of platinum and palladium may be delayed until the end of the summer
because of government restructuring, Interfax news agency quoted a source at state export
agency Almazjuvelirexport as saying on Tuesday.

(Wed May 06 1998 18:24 - ID#57232)
Biggest 'Bang' ever recorded
Donald: Thanks for the news post. Hope the local gamma radiation is not too intense -- very likely not.

You wouldn't want one of these to go off in your neighborhood, or probably even in your own galaxy. Who knows -- they might actually have witnessed the birth of another galaxy.

Makes you think about how lucky we are to be alive in a time of relatively stable environmental conditions.

Nature is a pretty harsh mistress. On a geological time scale, we are still powerless to prevent or postpone natural events that could threaten our existence.

Even a space-faring civilization would not be able to escape an event of this magnitude, unless they could travel between galaxies. Possible, but not comprehensible at our current level of knowledge.

(Wed May 06 1998 18:29 - ID#317193)
Date: Mon Mar 09 1998 07:55 ANOTHER ( THOUGHTS! ) ID#60253:
ALL: The purchase of large physical stocks of gold in Nov. did send a message to the CBs. They did begin slowdown of sales/easing. The "management tool of gold in the 90s" ( see Date: Sat Mar 07 1998 13:08 ANOTHER ( THOUGHTS! ) ID#60253 ) is now to go into reverse! A large purchase, now, is sending another message, "bring gold back into $320 to $360 US$ range. We should see this in five to ten days. This will be a hard thing, as it may create a crush to cover. Let us watch this "new gold market", as it is not as before.
I will post later in march!
LGB-this is the "quote". Not exactly on both counts. There is heat in everyone's kitchen and glass houses abound. Casting stones is ofttimes a bad idea! Someone just might take the time to look up months worth of posts.


(Wed May 06 1998 18:34 - ID#254269)
Runnymeade ? Runnymeade ? ..... Donald, I knew I had met you once before.
I was on Oliver Cromwell's side.

(Wed May 06 1998 18:36 - ID#269409)
@ Tom / Another
And the meaning changed how again ????

(Wed May 06 1998 18:39 - ID#269191)
Gee, I thought that was where King John signed the Magna Carta in
1216 A.D. Thought Oliver Cromwell was in 1649 A.D. when Charles I
was beheaded after the English Civil War. But I get easily confused.

(Wed May 06 1998 18:40 - ID#269409)
HARMONY Gold....what a performer!
Geez, my long term investment strategies have been all wrong. If only I coulda held Dizzy's vaunted Harmony Gold.

Harmony's close today, $5.44, down 2% on the day, down 25% from a year ago, down 40% from March 97..... a stock that's obviously makin millionaires outta farmboyz!

(Wed May 06 1998 18:41 - ID#26793)
Greenspan says big bank mergers create dangers.

(Wed May 06 1998 18:43 - ID#254269)
@ DEJ; After 700 years, I get easily confused
too !

(Wed May 06 1998 18:45 - ID#317193)
The meaning is in the interpretation of whether the price of gold is to rise in this time period or the message is being sent in this time period. You know I concur with your reading but this horse died long ago for those with our view. For those with the other view the horse is still running the race.

What is your purpose? To antagonize, alienate or offend? Why post such comments? Have you nothing productive to do with your time?

Sorry, I don't "get it" so to speak.

Tom bbml

(Wed May 06 1998 18:48 - ID#57232)
Indonesia is now having full-scale riots
These are no longer student demonstrations. What would the average American do if tommorrow the price of oil suddenly doubled?

(Wed May 06 1998 18:52 - ID#26793)
Greenspan in closed door meeting with House Republicans right now.

(Wed May 06 1998 18:57 - ID#26793)
Alan Greenspan has had no time for tennis this week.

(Wed May 06 1998 19:01 - ID#31876)
Bill Fleckenstein -- Thoughts on Buffett and Silver, May 6

(Wed May 06 1998 19:09 - ID#43460)
TYoung regrets
Perhaps it is best to ignore trolls and allow them to self destruct without help nor hindrance? IMHO

( Admittedly, I have read some of the strangeness today. I took the time to look up Harmony, which was soundly trashed earlier today by certain persons. According to the numbers it closed at 300%+/- of its yearly low, despite all the noise. IMHO )

(Wed May 06 1998 19:09 - ID#26793)
A side issue on Russian platinum & palladium exports

(Wed May 06 1998 19:09 - ID#256326)
Did anyone
notice that the stock markets were down today along with gold ( in the fce of a pretty neo-re-inflationary beige book, and bonds were up? The fright to quality just isn't what it used to be.

(Wed May 06 1998 19:22 - ID#28594)
Hey! Eurostat sez "GOLD IS HELD TO DEFEND THE CURRENCY" doesn't that sound as if it had a....
sound like gold had value? MORE value than the paper it is to DEFEND?

Payment to the State following the sale of monetary gold by Ufficio Italiano dei Cambi ( UIC ) to Banca dItalia

Eurostat, the Statistical Office of the European Communities in
Luxembourg, has taken a decision specifying the guidelines to ensure a better comparability for the government deficit and debt data in Member States and assuring conformity with the European System of Accounts ( ESA 79 ) .

This decision concerns a payment to the State following the sale of monetary gold by Ufficio Italiano dei Cambi ( UIC ) to Banca dItalia. The accounting treatment of this transaction in terms of ESA 79 requires special attention because of the specific institutional arrangements in Italy.
Eurostat has decided to treat this payment as a financial transaction which has no effect on the measurement of the government deficit as defined for the purposes of the excessive deficit procedure.

This decision is in line with ESA 79 and it is built upon two former decisions concerning payments from Central Banks to the State, following sale of gold ( see decision of 3 February 1997 ) or revaluation and sale of foreign exchange reserves ( see decisions of 17 December 1997 ) .

This decision is consistent with the opinion of the large majority of CMFB members.

The decision

Eurostat decision applies to a specific case which involves the Ufficio Italiano dei Cambi and the Banca dItalia. On the 2nd of July 1997 the Board of Directors of the UIC decided to sell all the gold to the Banca dItalia. It amounted to 10519 bn ITL, valued on the base of the swap operation between the Banca dItalia and the EMI of 30 June 1997. With the transfer of gold to the Banca dItalia, the UIC raised 7648 bn ITL. These profits came from the difference between the price of gold at 30 June 1997 and the price in 1976, when it was acquired originally.

On these profits 3685 bn ITL of taxes have been paid to the Italian State. The economic nature and the classification of this transaction in terms of the accounting framework of the ESA 79 was the subject of the discussions at the level of the technical groups.

The Eurostat decision is based on the following ground:
In national accounts, the UIC is economically owned by the Italian central government, as the Italian government appoints the majority of managing board, receives part of the profits on a regular basis, and has right over the net assets in case of liquidation, even though the state is not a legal shareholder.

Gold reserves are held by UIC and managed in the general interest of the
nation e.g. to defend the exchange rate of the national currency.
In national accounts the State ownership in UIC is materialised by a
participation recorded as "other equity".

Thus, any possible payment to the State, following an exceptional sale or
revaluation of gold, results in a reduction on the State equity which is a financial transaction without effect on general government deficit.

In this sense, the present decision of Eurostat completes the former decisions taken in December 1997 concerning payments from Central Banks to the State.

Sorry it is so long...but it MAKES A POINT {:- ) )

(Wed May 06 1998 19:24 - ID#26793)
Your comments on the Dow and gold action today are correct. But the Dow/Gold Ratio was down for three days in a row, although just barely. In other words, the Dow is falling faster than gold and we can expect that the bottom in the Dow is many years away while the bottom in gold is much , much closer.

(Wed May 06 1998 19:25 - ID#256250)
Date: Wed May 06 1998 19:09
Donald ( A side issue on Russian platinum & palladium exports ) ID#26793:

So I guess what they are saying is every year we find some reasons to start shipping pm's later and later, but everything going along just fine.

Sure buddy, anyone want to hazzard a guess at the price palladium will be trading at next year, not paper palladium that is.

(Wed May 06 1998 19:29 - ID#393224)
G'morning all.
Everyone have fun last night ( today ) ?

If you follow Oldman you will now bail out of all of your gold related investments and go short, as he has stated that gold is going below $250 if we get a close below last Friday's lows.

Date: Sun May 03 1998 00:01
Oldman ( deja vu all over again?? ) ID#186147:
Copyright  1998 Oldman/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I am long gold for the third time since '96. The first 2 forays lasted one day each. This time I've been in 5 whole
weeks---from $298 on 3/23. If we close below Friday's low, I'll reverse to a light short position. I would then
short heavily on any rally. A close below Friday's low means new lows, probably below $250. As the Klintonistas
become stronger, the US$ and US equities do likewise. Gold is NOT in their plan. They control the world
through their control of the fiat money system. Every blow landed on Big Bubba that does not kill him makes them
stronger. Dont stand in the way of the Klinton Express if gold breaks Friday's low. These people play for keeps.
Whether they will win or not should be known with some certainty this week. If gold DOES breakdown, the next
dip in S&P, which should start Monday, will be a great buying opportunity.

I do not agree with the above, as I so eloquently stated ( it was rather late at night and I was very tired ) :

Date: Sun May 03 1998 09:23
Nick@C ( C'mon Oldman ) ID#393224:
What a load of horsesh*t.

Gold can go BELOW Friday's lows ( not by more than a coupla dollars--mind you ) and still be in uptrend.

Just look at DJ's charts.


Now look at the fin-chart:

Let's see if we can stay above that 297-298 area. A break below that line and we may test the lows. I will be adding to my long positions on this correction. If 280 does not hold I will sell the lot and go live under a palm tree on a secluded beach in Queensland{[:- ) ) . Cheers, N.

(Wed May 06 1998 19:32 - ID#26793)
Are not those profits an illusion, at least in part? Gold bought in 1976 and paid for in Italian lira, less inflation in the lira, equals real non inflationary gain. Hard to tell what is real in that transaction.

(Wed May 06 1998 19:32 - ID#201238)
comex gold stocks

warehouse stocks: -- GOLD ( Quoted in Troy Ounce )
Depository Prev. Received Net. Adjust- Total
Total Withdrawn Chg. ment Today
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 Total
0 0 0 0 0 0
78,323 0 0 0 0 78,323
36,947 16,212 0 16,212 0 53,159 Total
115,270 16,212 0 16,212 0 131,482
166,425 0 0 0 0 166,425
17,682 0 0 0 0 17,682 Total
184,107 0 0 0 0 184,107
251,433 0 0 0 0 251,433
107,683 0 0 0 0 107,683 Total
359,116 0 0 0 0 359,116
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 Total
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 Total
0 0 0 0 0 0
496,181 0 0 0 0 496,181
162,312 16,212 0 16,212 0 178,524
658,493 16,212 0 16,212 0 674,705

Eligible stocks rose 10% - we go down befor we go up.

(Wed May 06 1998 19:36 - ID#256250)

"Gold reserves are held by UIC and managed in the general interest of the
nation e.g. to defend the exchange rate of the national currency. "

Yes, very interesting. Maybe they are talking about that other gold. You know that gold that is incredibly valuable and essential to international trade, not the gold that trades on comex and lbma

you know ... that paper gold. ( :@

Something this way cometh... be prepared buy gold take delivery and hang onto it, no matter what comex says it is worth.

(Wed May 06 1998 19:47 - ID#43460)
A Goose this won't be much help
I wish I knew what the Pd price would be next year! I looked at the Kitco 20 year graph and it wasn't much help. here was a little peak back during the Pons/Fleischman era and a big peak back during the Hunt brothers' silver corner, but no hint as to next year. IMHO

Also had a long talk with a retired catalytic chemist and he told me that nearly all the uses for palladium are relatively recent events, within the last 30 years, so there is little background nor precident unlike the thousands of years for gold and silver. IMHO

Just eyeballing the charts and inflation rates how about the $150 to $1500 range, trending more to the lower middle? If you want more precision I'll be happy to get a bag of chicken livers, some diet 7Up and go out to the park for lunch tomorrow and meditate upon it. The caveat of course is that prognostication by chicken livers is neither as precise nor accurate as it is pleasurable. IMHO

(Wed May 06 1998 19:51 - ID#256326)
As a good friend of b b fisher, whom you also know, I must say I agree with you on the relatively better position of gold over US stocks in the long wave cycle if we look out into the future. Nevertheless I left this site as a regular over a year ago when I saw that I was wrong in advocating long gold positions, and that lots of little and big gold bugs were getting blown away while all those "morons" were getting rich in stocks.

One thing which bothered me at that time was that gold did not respond to any hint of inflation, but that goldbugs were becoming deflationists. I came to believe that goldbugs were grasping at straws to maintain their pro-gold position since there is little or no evidence that true deflation gives gold an edge over cash. In fact the evidence of last summer and fall is that in a credit crunch, which many take as synonymnous with deflation, everything gets sold for cash.
( I'm going to split this for fear of the Kitco mystery post slasher. )

(Wed May 06 1998 19:54 - ID#186147)
whither gold?
Nick: I did not short gold today. It seemed to want to honor the April low, so I will wait to see a close below that law ( $301 ) , before pulling the trigger. I know some folks hereabouts are more interested in ad hominem attacks than in mutual aid in approaching the markets. I would note, however, that one would be ahead over $5k/contract if one had taken to heart my prediction of Monday starting a correction in the spoos. I love gold. That's why I try to be on the right side of the markets. I dont want to lose the gold I already have.: ) If gold closes below $301, its still a bear market. I sell bears and buy bulls. Everyone is free to disagree with me. After all, its your money. BTW, expect a bottom in the Spoos either Friday or Monday. It'll be a huge buy when it comes. Good luck all. See you on the weekend.

(Wed May 06 1998 19:54 - ID#256250)
It is about tiime that the sell some of their bullion.

Well, at least some folks sold into this drop. Haven't seen that in a while.

178,524 ounces in eliginle stocks today, up from 148,278 on April 6th. 30,246 ounce increase ( 20.3% increase ) . Sounds impressive, but when you look at the volume that traded during that period, it is incredibley small. 2.3 million ounces traded yesterday alone.

Oh well, time will tell. Maybe the ECB will jump on comex and pick up this useless stuff to defend the Euro. Comex will continue to trade paper gold, so things will work out fine ( ;i


(Wed May 06 1998 19:58 - ID#28594)
Europe has SPECIAL rules for gold...system gold....
Europa Site--offical document
Sonderregelung fr Gold
Special arrangement for gold

In this interesting document there is a DISTINCTION made between what they call system gold which does not entail material transfer and is at least .900 fine...and they are concerned LEAST the DANGER of it moving to third countries become a reality....mmmh, sounds like they think it is Special, like it had Value....system gold huh...i like it {:- )

For other gold than system gold however ( e.g. gold, which is the subject of a material transfer for industry or commercial purposes

Suggestion for a guideline of the advice on the supplement of the value added tax common system and of the modification of the guideline 77/388/EWG - special arrangement for gold.

(Wed May 06 1998 19:59 - ID#233199)
SDR ad all :

(Wed May 06 1998 19:59 - ID#233199)
@SDR: Please brehe long break up the long URL in the future ...

(Wed May 06 1998 20:00 - ID#233199)
Somehow these posts are gin away too soon

(Wed May 06 1998 20:00 - ID#256250)

Date: Wed May 06 1998 19:47
gagnrad ( A Goose this won't be much help ) ID#43460:

YOU'LL WRONG. It helps alot. Thanks!

p.s. maybe while you'll meditating you can cut open a couple of chicken livers and read what the heck is going happen to the USdollar?

Thanks again, I love it.

(Wed May 06 1998 20:01 - ID#427357)
Nikkei In Kamikaze Dive As Financial Execs Commit Hari-Kari


Who is next in the BOJ queue to commit Hari-Kari?

Hashimoto may have someone else do the favor!

(Wed May 06 1998 20:01 - ID#256326)
Donald 2
In any event, that's old news, and none of this is meant as a reproach.

Basically gold is not going up meaningfully until the market senses that inflation--benign or otherwise--is returning, probably 2-8 months before it is evident.

Personally and professionally I think that will happen, and not deflation. It might even still be happening right now, although, as I posted earlier, it's getting into late innings for a gold bull out of the present time and price. I don't buy the new era that stocks are going up forever and gold is finished forever. I believe in cycles, but only because they exist. If you are looking at cycles of many decades you can't time them to the week, month or even year. But the cycles are running out for stocks as the leader ( I am not predicting a crash ) and for gold as a loser. I just don't want to see another crop of gold enthusiasts blown away if this thing doesn't explode this month. That's my reason for caution.

(Wed May 06 1998 20:03 - ID#233199)
Long URLs

....but the point is the long urls wreck the screen margins for some
please split the really long urls after the http:// part.


(Wed May 06 1998 20:05 - ID#256326)
There you go Oldman,
and I'll second that too!

(Wed May 06 1998 20:06 - ID#28594)
Donald, after ploughing through more corporate creative accounting sheets
than any sinner should EVER be sentenced to view--
every exchange that isn't one chap handing a brick of gold
to another, is suspect in my mind. Yes, it is bureaucratic jargon...
the only reality in it for moi was the statement of gold's purpose...

(Wed May 06 1998 20:08 - ID#287193)
thanks for answering ( TYoung 14:18 )

just coming in for a while... read a bit is getting bloody again.....? ( chicken liver..look at this chick )

gagnrad....did you know about the gold with a Y=YOLD ?

this site is only for having a little break in between reloads.


(Wed May 06 1998 20:11 - ID#28594)
SWPI--Sorry, I've tried everything I can think of, to no avail...
There are over 550,000 documents and access is...when I find
an adequate expression I'll finish the thought {:- ) )
I'm certainly open to any ideas you have about the problem
tho--it's a pain for my cut/paste ops too.

(Wed May 06 1998 20:15 - ID#28594)
SWPI--here is the url from my search list, you can easily access the
document from there, OK?

(Wed May 06 1998 20:18 - ID#26793)
Not all the longs have been getting killed in gold. I have a post here somewhere I saved here from July 1, 1997, suggesting Central Fund of Canada at something like the same price it closed at today. The risky gold trades are in the leveraged holdings. It is too soon for that perhaps. The problem is in not being invested at the turn which is unlikely to be a large window; gold will move as in the Buffett play on silver, overnight. I would rather be exposed to what I see as a possible minor loss on the downside than to be left out.

CEF certainly has been something other than Dell or Compaq but it lets me sleep nights. We have always disagreed on the deflation/inflation argument. I don't know what else to say that I haven't said already. There have been hundreds of posts that I feel prove the deflation argument. The difficulty is in understanding that there can be a deflation in big ticket items at the same time there is inflation in necessities. Taken together, the deflationary aspects outweigh the inflationary by a great margin. After the deflationary surge we probably agree that inflation is likely at some future point.

(Wed May 06 1998 20:19 - ID#431263)
BUT INDONESIA DOWN over 20 ( 4.75% ) ! IF HK closes below 10,000 we're on our way to 8,000, and if Nickeii closes below 14,500 we're on our way to 8,000! If both of these things happen tonight we're on our way to 8,000 on the Dow as well! Next stop after that is 4,000 on all 3 exchanges!Those of you interested in Asia check out Barton's Asian Market Charts. Yahoo search can find it for you!

(Wed May 06 1998 20:25 - ID#208393)
Inflation fear
Altamira credits the fear of inflation for today's drop in Canadian stocks... "employment figures may ignite investor fears regarding inflation."
Discounting this fear will soon be a good reason for another "buying opportunity"

(Wed May 06 1998 20:28 - ID#287193)
calling all Canadians
some of you may have this url.....but for the 'OTHERS':

( from Holland with love )

(Wed May 06 1998 20:32 - ID#427357)

hello? hello?

(Wed May 06 1998 20:32 - ID#431263)
Ron Insana interviewed one bull this afternoon who said with a straight face that he thought the Dow would be at 20,000-25,000 in the next 7 years! That between then and now we should have 15-20 corrections of 5-15% and that EVRY SINGLE ONE OF THEM SHOULD BE BOUGHT WITH BOTH FISTS! Should not be afraid of 25-30 PE's on Dow stocks! C'mon sheeple, close your eyes and BUY THEM DIPS ( er, corrections, I mean, crashes ) ! : )

(Wed May 06 1998 20:39 - ID#288295)
Indonesian market collapsing
Elliott Wavers - is this wave III ( the big one ) starting? ( sucker rally is over ) on Indonesia Stock Exchange to see the chart.

(Wed May 06 1998 20:39 - ID#255190)
Stump pounding
CIA story from 5/5/1998 mentioned here this morning. Did you follow the URL and read it carefully???

First, it must be recognized that the CIA does not give interviews in a reactive fashion. This story is no 'reporter gets story from unsuspecting person' type of story. When the CIA arranges to have a story published and identifies themselve as the source of the information you had best take notice.

Look at the statements made by the CIA spokesperson. They are clear. They are certain. They are direct. "There will be distruptions .. Nations are not preparing .. We are telling our people ..." This news story is an open declaration of war against this administration's cover up as it relates to Y2K.

There is a contingent of powerful people who will not allow the President to sweep this problem under the rug. They have been speaking through people like Cap Weinberger in condemnation of the present administrations handling of this issue. These people know what this means and they intend to do whatever it takes to blow the snow job away.

The NSA is into this big time I'm sure. Why? Because they are the internal portion of the security apparatus. They know that this problem will throw this world into chaos and anarchy. Security is their middle name and this of course threatens it intensely.

This group, whatever their composition, is made up of people who often are at odds with the short term political goals of the latest office holders. They are showing in a public way their intent to force this issue into the light of public discourse. They are showing their disagreeement with the current administration's political agenda. In that this has gone public, we know just how pitched a battle this is at this time.

I expect we will begin to see the press 'all of a sudden' take this problem seriously. This will be because of the efforts of this group of long term apparaticks to push the press into this mode. They will know just who to talk to and how to get things rolling. Already we have a Samualson who is remonstrating himself and his fellow newsmeisters for taking this issue way to lightly. There will be others and more of them.

Watch this play out. An education in realpolitik.

(Wed May 06 1998 20:51 - ID#206358)

This morning,the indonesia,singapore dollars,malaysia ringgits and regions markets,both been whacked heavily!BLOODSHED FORECAST,let's see!
indonesia Rupiah broke 10000:1 u.s now!!More riots happenning!Situations tense!!cautions,please!
The barton address is :
It's very good site and comments attached.

JIN....8.56 A.M

(Wed May 06 1998 20:53 - ID#256326)
Fair enough on Central Fund, a wise choice. But I can tell you from the experience of testimony here and through many emails that many folks, lurkers a lot of them, listened to the wise and famous posters here and lost life savings in options, futures, and stocks.

I also respect your opinion on deflation, which is consistent and well stated, although I see inflation, when it comes--and it's coming-- as not differentiating amongst assets, consumables, or services.

And my criticism was not really directed at you, but at those who are always bullish no matter what. I realize that Kitco is partly or even largely a lodge or fellowship of gold worshippers, and that's fine too. I am one myself. I just agree with Oldman that if it's bullish you buy it and if it's bearish you sell it. Enough.

Voyeur Professor
(Wed May 06 1998 20:54 - ID#231101)
Gold and the EMI

Last week, I offered some musings regarding my belief that golds future seems tied to the EMI. I speculated that were the new trading block to become successful, then I felt that the dollars hegemony would end. Further, I suggested that the Euro would represent an alternative to U.S. Treasuries, corporate bond, and American equities. The Euros very presence in the international markets would represent, I argued, a sizable challenge to our parabolic bull market and create a new role for gold as a "fallback value" for the new currency. Those of you not familiar with Robert Mundells op-ed piece in "The Wall Street Journal" on April 30th of last month will discover some well-reasoned analysis for golds role in monetary policy. Ironically, we have been virtually bombarded by an avalanche of new era talk regarding golds death, when, in fact, Mundell offers an extraordinary summation of golds vital function in currency stability.
Mundell peppers his article with numerous reasons to believe gold will remain a fundamental monetary reserve. He speaks of a "succession of important currencies" that have gained international status in history and links their success to "five common denominators," one of which he identifies as "a fallback value in terms of one of the precious metals." Then he states:
"The euro will be the first international currency to start off without any explicit fallback value
in terms of gold or silver, and without the backing of a strong central state. In the abstract these defects seem lethal. But two factors greatly mitigate them. One is that most of the EU is part of a security area, NATO, which protects it from enemies from without. The other is that the EU countries have massive holdings of gold and foreign exchange. These two factors make it possible for the euro to be an exception to the rule."
Mundell surely offers some balm for goldbugs anguished over a, seemingly, endless gold bear.

As a final observation, I found a potential caveat in Mundells piece residing in his argument that once European countries pool their monetary resources. I discussed this problem with a colleague in our Economics department, but neither of us could come up with a satisfactory conclusion to our problem. Let me state the problem and invite any or all Kitcoites to respond. Mundell says:
"Pooling foreign exchange held in marks and other European currencies will reduce net reserves of Europe. Once EMU is formed, intraunion deficits and surpluses will be netted out, and reserve needs for the union as a whole will be considerable smaller {my emphasis}than the sum of the reserve needs of individual members
If external ( mainly dollar ) reserves were at an appropriate level before union, they will be excessive after it {also my emphasis}. The same holds true for gold reserves, of which the EU countries hold almost half the worlds monetary reserves. Any immediate action to dispose of the part of these reserves that are considered excessive would {my emphasis}be damaging to exchange rate stability and a suitable subject for international coordination."

My questions: Will such a surplus of gold result if the EMI does not absorb each countrys reserves? And what effect will gold surpluses created by the gold not absorbed have on gold prices? Will individual countries need to keep gold reserves? How much?

(Wed May 06 1998 20:54 - ID#255190)
You have got the ticket. The unpublished, unvarnished truth of this matter. Golden bullets to defend paper palaces. Congrats.

Lock and Load! Ready on the right ..

(Wed May 06 1998 20:56 - ID#413109)
As Bullish As I AM........
I can't feel too positive about the looks of XAU and the relating
stochastics-have a look for yourselves-----

Now--"longer term"-- great buying opportunities for the patient
buyers and holders. Many stocks with bottoming actions and increasing
volume--what more could a technician, or the uninformed ask for???

(Wed May 06 1998 20:57 - ID#255190)
JIN, I sent you email.
A wise man sees evil coming and hides himself; a simple minded man continues on the path and is ruined.

I hope your hidaway is prepared, wise man.

(Wed May 06 1998 20:58 - ID#288295)
Jin - your link didn't work for me, but this one did ( Scroll down to get the charts )

(Wed May 06 1998 20:59 - ID#255190)
Goodnight, all.
Nick@C and Sharefin - take cover boys. The wave cometh.

(Wed May 06 1998 21:07 - ID#253228)
I'm running with a bear behind. Remember that from childhood?
My projection on the S&P500 is close to ontrack.

I previously posted two weekly homegrown charts:

Take a look at the daily S&P500 chart which gives more detail:

I have Homestake Mines charts based on the same methods. They show a significant decline into September, 1998 with an end goal of under $1.00, but I am not posting them because I use them to trade from and I like to keep the little trade points to myself.

Unrelated to the above method, I occasionally try to do some Elliott Wave counting on short term moves. If you look at the Gold charts coming out of the January, 1998 lows the first wave up ended around $305-$310. It corrected down to the $295 area and then came up in third wave to the $315 area. It has now dropped below the peak of the initial wave. That makes one wave up, a second wave down and a third wave up. We are now in a wave down off of the third wave. For this whole structure to be a bull move up there would need to be one more wave up, however Elliott said that wave 4 can't go below wave one's peak. All this tells me that in all probability the three wave structure out of the lows was an ABC correction. This means there is now to be another significant move down. The bear is not over. This is what my work on Homestake shows. Add that to a 35% decline in the S&P500 and I can only justify a short position in gold shares.

Since the dollar is not a fixed measure, Did the stock market really stand still and the Dollar decline instead?

(Wed May 06 1998 21:09 - ID#393224)
Nick's 'see-through-plastic-ruler' silver update.
Look at the fin-chart:

The silver correction appears to be nearly finished. Forget the bottom purple line. Lay your ruler across the two recent lows @5.50 and @5.65 and across the bottom of the gap ( 4 connection points--2 tops and 2 bottoms ) . Fudge just a bit and you can see a correction to the 5.70--5.80 area, and then a resumption of the uptrend. I am buying more silver shares on this correction.

Caveat:the big boys are playing funny-buggers with both the pog and the pos--we may have to throw our charts out the window!!

Voyeur Professor
(Wed May 06 1998 21:11 - ID#231101)
Kitco's formatting has gone mad!


My attempts to both post and read other posts is frought with greater difficulty than decoding Hittite cuneiform. I'll post and respond when order is restored.

(Wed May 06 1998 21:14 - ID#431263)
IS INDONESIA TRADING YET? Vronsky keeps reminding me that Yahoo quotes are sometimes tricky to read for us morons on the occident side of the globe! Current quote from Jakarta please! By the way, ain't that Barton site a gem! Best one I know of for Asian TA! Take care, my friend! Will keep you and yours in my prayers!

(Wed May 06 1998 21:16 - ID#288295)

Your SP chart has a very impressive track record. Would you like to share your forecasting secrets? ( ;^ ) )

Voyeur Professor
(Wed May 06 1998 21:18 - ID#231101)
With apologies for the second post

Bart and All:

My apologies for the re-post, but I simply cannot make sense of the formatting of posts before 2100 hours. Thus I have takent the liberty to wear out my welcome. I cannot lurk for responses, but will review comments tomorrow. Thanks.

Last week, I offered some musings regarding my belief that golds future seems tied to the EMI. I speculated that were the new trading block to become successful, then I felt that the dollars hegemony would end. Further, I suggested that the Euro would represent an alternative to U.S. Treasuries, corporate bond, and American equities. The Euros very presence in the international markets would represent, I argued, a sizable challenge to our parabolic bull market and create a new role for gold as a "fallback value" for the new currency. Those of you not familiar with Robert Mundells op-ed piece in "The Wall Street Journal" on April 30th of last month will discover some well-reasoned analysis for golds role in monetary policy. Ironically, we have been virtually bombarded by an avalanche of new era talk regarding golds death, when, in fact, Mundell offers an extraordinary summation of golds vital function in currency stability.
Mundell peppers his article with numerous reasons to believe gold will remain a fundamental monetary reserve. He speaks of a "succession of important currencies" that have gained international status in history and links their success to "five common denominators," one of which he identifies as "a fallback value in terms of one of the precious metals." Then he states:
"The euro will be the first international currency to start off without any explicit fallback value
in terms of gold or silver, and without the backing of a strong central state. In the abstract these defects seem lethal. But two factors greatly mitigate them. One is that most of the EU is part of a security area, NATO, which protects it from enemies from without. The other is that the EU countries have massive holdings of gold and foreign exchange. These two factors make it possible for the euro to be an exception to the rule."
Mundell surely offers some balm for goldbugs anguished over a, seemingly, endless gold bear.

As a final observation, I found a potential caveat in Mundells piece residing in his argument that once European countries pool their monetary resources. I discussed this problem with a colleague in our Economics department, but neither of us could come up with a satisfactory conclusion to our problem. Let me state the problem and invite any or all Kitcoites to respond. Mundell says:
"Pooling foreign exchange held in marks and other European currencies will reduce net reserves of Europe. Once EMU is formed, intraunion deficits and surpluses will be netted out, and reserve needs for the union as a whole will be considerable smaller {my emphasis}than the sum of the reserve needs of individual members
If external ( mainly dollar ) reserves were at an appropriate level before union, they will be excessive after it {also my emphasis}. The same holds true for gold reserves, of which the EU countries hold almost half the worlds monetary reserves. Any immediate action to dispose of the part of these reserves that are considered excessive would {my emphasis}be damaging to exchange rate stability and a suitable subject for international coordination."

My questions: Will such a surplus of gold result if the EMI does not absorb each countrys reserves? And what effect will gold surpluses created by the gold not absorbed have on gold prices? Will individual countries need to keep gold reserves? How much?

(Wed May 06 1998 21:20 - ID#393224)
'Ad hominem attacks R US'

Well, mate, you sure got your shorts squeezed. Hope it is not too uncomfortable singing 'castrato'!! Welcome to the boy's choir{:- ) ) .

(Wed May 06 1998 21:30 - ID#253228)
The projection is a combination of a trend ( you can see it in the older S&P500 weekly chart ) and over 300 sine waves. It is all statistically derived. The probable sine waves are fitted to the historical data which is why the little thin line matches the historic data. The waves and trend are projected individually into the future and then added together. The real proof of the validity of this method is a match in the future which is yet to be seen. Of course the projection will never turn out to be completely correct, but if it comes close then there is money in my pocket. The projection always changes slightly with each recomputation and each new data point added.

(Wed May 06 1998 21:32 - ID#57232)
Sorry, Jin - I missed your posts!
Jin: Glad to hear you are still active on the net! Looks like my fellow Kitcoites have already offered you much regarding your investment requests. Hope you are not too close to 'ground zero' in Indonesia. What worries me most about this current turmoil is that mainland China is on the brink of a devaluation.

A few days ago we go a post about a Brookings Institute expert who was in Beijing. If you didn't know, the Brookings Institute is a highly respected advice firm. I believe it specializes in economics. The expert said that the China debt problem was worse than the Indonesian and Korean situations before the October 97 SEAsia crash. Another post just stated that the Hong Kong Stock exchange was very concerned about the 42 mainland Chinese firms listed on their exchange, as there was a real possibility that all 42 of them would not be able to get any cash from the mainland Chinese banks they use. Two firms defaulted already.

This downturn in the markets is likely to be worse than the October 97 drop, because this time Japan, Hong Kong and China will be hit hard -- and soon.

Hope you have gotten some useful help from Allen ( USA ) . Allen has been thinking for a long time about what to do during major economic trouble. Eventually we will have this in the US too -- probably not this year.

Please take care and keep a low profile! The goods you sell are valuable in times like this -- but please beware those who might want them without paying for them. Best wishes for you and your family, and please keep posting when you can. We will try to help whenever we can.

(Wed May 06 1998 21:32 - ID#431263)
Red skies over Pacific Rim--
Malaysia ( -3.16% ) and Singapore ( -2% ) getting hammered tonight and the way Jin talks so is Indonesia! Looks like even Brazil and Mexico are not immune to the trouble comin' our way! Down 3.39% and 2.25% respectively.

(Wed May 06 1998 21:35 - ID#288295)

Does your method use genetic algorithms, pattern matching, or some other method to find the best probable fit of the sine waves?

(Wed May 06 1998 21:40 - ID#288260)
Dropping like a stone in the last 15 down 139.73

(Wed May 06 1998 21:43 - ID#401460)
Treasury to reduce borrowing.

5/6/98 -- 6:30 PM

Bonds higher as Treasury announce plans to reduce borrowing

NEW YORK ( AP ) - Bond prices rose Wednesday after the Treasury announced plans
to scale back government borrowing because of projected budget surpluses and
reports showed the economy continues to grow without inflation.

The price of the benchmark 30-year Treasury bond rose 25/32 point, or $7.81 per
$1,000 in face value. Its yield, which moves in the opposite direction, fell to 5.93
percent from 5.98 percent late Tuesday.

More of the new paradigm? - Or is it, to much supply and not enough buyers?
Just like all of the dollars coming home.

I dont know, I was always told that the price of bonds would rise when the demand for them dropped - I t would appear that the opposite is happening.

This would appear to be an artificial way to support the price in the face of low demand. Kind of makes you wonder if the budget surpluses are truthful and/or accurate.

This, I would guess, is one of the reasons for the secret meetings between Greenspan, Rubin, and everyone. They have been discussing ways to keep the boat afloat.

As long as this manipulation continues to work, it does not look good for Gold.


(Wed May 06 1998 21:44 - ID#411259)
..... LGB .....

Pssssssst.....Silver up one cent overseas.....Shhhhhhhhhhhhhh

Damn Lurky you wanna' jinx the rally?

The As Before ( ASB )

Not As Before ( NAB )


Have been very helpful

What was the quote?

Oh, Yes

Brevity is the soul of wit

It is



(Wed May 06 1998 21:47 - ID#431263)
What's that see-through nightie ( I mean, ruler ) have to say about the current action in gold? I believe I heard you say the trend is still up if'n we can hold above 297-298! Is this right? Sounds like your gettin' bullish on silver, eh? Gotta' tell you, I, for one, am scared sheissless about this Asian mess! How do you think a new Asian implosion will affact Aussie gold stocks or Lihir? Costs of mining should go down, eh? You makin' any preparations for an Indonesian invasion of OZ? Damn IMF! How much more humiliation can that region stand before civil war breaks out?

(Wed May 06 1998 21:48 - ID#411259)
..... Epiphany .....

I guess the trick in these markets is to not get NABed

Huh uh

(Wed May 06 1998 21:48 - ID#173274)
@the scene
RJ -- Does that mean that if it looks like a duck, walks like a duck, and quacks like a duck, there are high probabilities that it IS a duck?

(Wed May 06 1998 21:52 - ID#215208)
Silver bottom
Nick@C - I like your transparent ruler TA. It is exotic, complex, and sophisticated ... like my channels charts. :- ) )

London silver fix today was 6.0775. Unlike the other metals, this fix occurs only once a day, in the morning. Thus it happened before the real drop in silver today. Nevertheless, the drop today has NOT been confirmed in London. If POS rises back above 6.00 for the London fix tomorrow, no breakout of the silver channel will have occured. If not, IMHO silver is headed down. I have stared at the charts, but see no real clear criteria for determining how far down. My best guess is that APH is about right and it will bottom out in the 5.50 range.

Another possibility is that it will wiggle into the apex of your pennant for a few more days, keeping us all in suspense.

I think that there is a real possibility that all the metals will bottom out at the same time. I see many signs that this might happen. I think gold has a few more days. Platinum and palladium appear weak in the overseas market tonight. Certainly silver is weak. If this happens I am going to be long in everthing but palladium ( too expensive ) ... very long. It will be one of the great opportunities of the year.

(Wed May 06 1998 21:54 - ID#411259)
..... If it walks like a goldbug .....

Eldo -

I know some folks who would end your scenario with some bird shot to the beak.

But I am a lover of our odd little friends ( having raised three generations ) and will brook no such behavior from those that would treat these little quackies thus.

As for any comparison of ducks to gold: You Sir, debase ducks.

"Nuff said

Uh huh

(Wed May 06 1998 22:00 - ID#253228)
The trend line is derived from a fifth order polynomial formula. Then the trend line created with the varaibles from solving that equation is subrtacted from the data. The result is the % chart I cited in my first post tonight.

Next I use a sepctral analysis to find the possible cycles in the data.

To test each possible cycle identified in the spectral analysis, I then spread the data into a table with as many rows as the period cycle I am testing. One of the problems in setting up the table is fractional periods which are handled by interpolating the data for that fractional period. ( A table to test a 156.334 period cycle would have 157 rows. I fill up the table with as many columns as are needed to use all the data in the data base. ( The table must be exactly full so any extra data points I drop off the front of the data base so that I am using the most current data, and I adjust the phase accordingly. )

If there is truly a repetitive cycle equal to 156.334 then the highest value in each column should have a tendency to fall in the same row. A Bartels test will tell you if the peaks are falling randomly ( no cycle ) or are falling close enough to the same row to be nonrandom. As you would expect the peaks will fall around the expected row in a normal distribution if the cycle ( repetitive pattern ) is really there.

The results of a Bartels test give you the the correct amplitude and phase for that cycle.

As a filtering technique, I subtract the strongest identified cycles from the % data base and then test the next strongest cycle. I keep repeating this until I have identified enough oscillations to match the past reasonable well. I then set up a loop to retest each cycle one at a time with all the others subtracted from the data.

What I am really doing is solving an equation indirectly that would be otherwise impossible to solve directly. That equation informally expressed is basically:

x = trend^5 + a sin 1 + b sin 2 ... + z sin n

(Wed May 06 1998 22:00 - ID#410114)
Buckler's comment that gold is a political metal is born out by the posts on Kitco. Dispite golds decline since 1980, the bulls have remained bullish all the way down, to their own destruction. Even now, when a bear posts his reasons or comments on gold he is savaged. This dispite golds price decline.

There are reasons other than profit that the bulls remain so bullish.

(Wed May 06 1998 22:09 - ID#431263)
WHOA! HK DOWN 1.75% to 9935!!!
What a terrible opening in HK! LOOK OUT ASIA!!

(Wed May 06 1998 22:11 - ID#288260)
2,000,000 unit over supply in cars in N.A. (CNN)
Lets see.... supply up demand down....what do you have to do to sell em? Why drop the price! But then do the earnings go down? Isn't this bad for General Motors and doesn't that hurt America? Over supply, domestic and off shore will sooner or later bring the market down and not just in cars.

(Wed May 06 1998 22:12 - ID#233199)
@Voyeur Professor Re:formatting

Try selecting all of the affending selection ( just the time sector you want ) and pasting it into your word processor. It should come our OK but with out the names of the posters in colour.

(Wed May 06 1998 22:12 - ID#427357)

The Japanese resistance in stemming a stock market debacle is admirable... reflective of their noble military past. As the rest of Asian markets waste away DAILY, the Nikkei fights for each and every point drop... but the fatal outcome is inevitable. It is doomed to much lower levels... some experts even forecasting a Nikkei of 4000... that's 73% lower than it is as I speak!

The BOJ will probably end up the ownwer of the Nikkei! That's like the Federal Reserve Bank being the owner of Wall Strret... ridiculous, isn't it!?

(Wed May 06 1998 22:12 - ID#253418)
Nick, I hope you're right
Hope you are right and these metal corrections are about over. Hope is not much to trade on however. I am becoiming increasing concerned about a real implosion in Asia with China going down this time. Information coming out about HK listed Chinese concerns unable to get money from their banks reflects what I have independantly heard but on a larger scale.

We could be walking into a new era and a big recession that will dampen precious metal demand.

Best rade this week so far was a sale at the opening Monday. My only thought is that the markets are going to get short here and then be sprung to the upside.

Silver stocks have to start falling again to convince traders of the supply demand mis match.d

(Wed May 06 1998 22:19 - ID#307271)
Isn't there a tacit underlying assumption that is akin to small purturbation theory; that is, none of the sine waves can have a large or catastrophic amplitude? For example, catastrophic events such as war or worldwide economic collapse would so upset the 5th order trend as to make this model at least questionable in view of the anticipated events presented daily on this forum?

(Wed May 06 1998 22:20 - ID#393224)
G'day Herr Cheesehead.
Interesting times, eh. I posted yesterday about the situation in Indonesia. I was last there in July, 97, just before the s.h.t.f..Things looked pretty grim even then. Suharto, whatever you may think of him, has kept a modicum of order in a diverse nation of 200 million+. That seems to be unravelling at the moment. The armchair critics ( I amongst them ) have never tried holding together such a diverse group of peoples. The effect on Oz? We are an island nation with a very inhospitable northwest. Indonesians seeking refuge could be jumping from the frying pan into the fire. Lihir? Indirectly an attack on very big Oz, Brit and US interests. Not likely. As good as gold mate!!

I still think the bottom is in on gold. We are just being made to suffer 'the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune' ( sorry Willie ) . BBML.

(Wed May 06 1998 22:21 - ID#253228)
Magnitude and length of deflation
Somehwere in the back of my mind I remember reading in one of the many hard money books ( that no doubt many here have been exposed to ) that the magnitude of a deflation is in proportion to the debt created in the preceding expansion and its length is in proportion to the effort expended by government to stop it. Reminds me of the comment made about the efforts in Japan.

(Wed May 06 1998 22:25 - ID#43460)
Last post for the night, good night all
A. Goose re palladium: Well, I still don't know how someone would be able to guess next year's price, except by luck! BTW, chicken livers don't work for exchange rates. For that I have to count the number of Jalapenos in a footlong club sandwich at the service station across the parkway. :^ ) IMHO

Aurophile: I was one of those folks who lost money last year on gold mutual funds! Do I get a badge and free newsletter subscription? ;^ ) I sold my losses early and took an offsetting tax writoff, then bought unrelated dissimilar investments like my certifies CPA/tax advisor recommended. ( No actual nor implied advice here, people, just a statement of what I did. ) IMHO

It saddens me though that so many folks would get into options, futures, et cetera without experiance and without knowing their own goals. So I'll repost this URL one more time, hoping that those who are gamblers and not investors would look into their motives for market involvement. IMHO

Nick@C that was a really neat chart! What did it mean? Looks kind of like the sort of display you get on a sonar fishfinder. IMHO

(Wed May 06 1998 22:26 - ID#235378)
Jeil - E-Wave GOLD projections that I observe
We seem to be in a short term Inverted Impulse Wave 3 Target 304 area ( we may have already made it ) . We then should move up to Target 4 before a final down wave 5. This is all short term starting about April 23, 98. I wouldn't think target 5 would be much lower... ( mayby 290? )

A much longer Inverted Impulse starting in early 1980 is just concluding wave 1. Wave two UP should carry us to a target 500 to 600 over the next year or so. If anyone else has some comment to verify or correct this notion feel free to comment.

I must do a study on the SP500 to compare it to your projection.


(Wed May 06 1998 22:27 - ID#256326)
Lieber Professor Vronsky
I would accept the idea of persistence or stubborness in the race you mention, but not military nobility. No way!

(Wed May 06 1998 22:31 - ID#393224)
G'day jims
I left one thing out, mate, but have always stressed it as the single most important tool in investing. USE STOP LOSSES. Don't just say, "oh yeah, I'll sell if xyz goes to $$xx. DO it. Take the loss. It hurts. I know. It happens to me all the time. I have to admit I was wrong. I always think "Oh, maybe it will come back tomorrow. I'll just hold on a little longer." BIG MISTAKE!!! SELL!! Live to fight another day.

If you buy just above resistance points and sell just below them--you have a much better chance of making a quid. Cheers, N.

(Wed May 06 1998 22:33 - ID#253228)
It is possible that when our universe came into existence that a universe elsewhere came into existence and that we are on collission course that will destroy both universes instantaneously.

If that were true it would still not stop me from predicitng that the next step I took would bring my foot into contact with the floor in front of me and I would not stop walking in anticipation of that possible universe end.

Events that are not statistically predictable ( random events ) have a tendency to be small and evenly distributed so that they have little effect on statistical calculations. There should be a maximum 2 1/2% error in the price of anything as a result of random events. For Homestake that is under $ .50 and I can live with that.

Events of the catastrophic kind that you mention are so rare as to be unimportant on the average. Being a dinosaur was no doubt significant to the individual dinosaurs alive when the supposed comet wiped the species out, but it mattered little to the overwhelming majority of dinosaurs that ever lived.

You point is well made, but will only matter to me if I happen to live ( or not live ) through such an event say as a nuclear war.

(Wed May 06 1998 22:34 - ID#256250)
I know there is no such thing as inflation, but I thought you would be interested..

To: +Alan Whirlwind ( 11348 )
From: +Richard Harmon
Wednesday, May 6 1998 11:40AM ET
Reply # of 11370

the lettuce story ( price up 5x ) :
CALIFORNIA SUPPLIES nearly 80 percent of the nation's romaine. The heavy rains delayed planting or killed seedlings. And many of the crops that did survive were attacked by fungus because of the standing water. While other types of lettuce also were affected, romaine was the hardest hit.The result: Wholesale prices of romaine shot from about $10 a case to $50, according to the U.S. Department of agiculture. Like many other restaurants across the country, Centro at the Mill, a Tuscany-style Italian spot in Greenwich, Conn.,has been getting by for the past week by using other types of lettuce, such as red leaf or baby greens. For those Centro guests who insist on romaine, there's a $2 surcharge. Ken McConnell, manager of culinary development for the Ruby Tuesday restaurant chain at its headquarters in Birmingham, Ala., said a restaurant manager from New Jersey found a case of romaine
for $72. He normally pays $12. "And he still wanted to buy it," McConnell said. The restaurant manager got the OK. The shortage should ease in a few weeks as the next crop of lettuce makes its way to stores and restaurants. Romaine usually takes three to four months to grow. In the meantime, Wendy's customers will see signs at the cash registers and drive-thru windows explaining why Caesar salads aren't available.
And at the 370 Ruby Tuesdays around the country, signs on each table announce "El Nio Strikes Again!" and explain why the chicken Caesar - the restaurant chain's most popular salad entree - isn't on the menu. Jeff Frost, a manager-in-training at the Ruby
Tuesday in Boynton Beach, said: "It's just one more thing that people are blaming on El



It has rained everyday this month in the San Jose Calif area. ( extremely unusual.

(Wed May 06 1998 22:40 - ID#256326)
A. Goose
They are gonna laugh up their sleeves and say it's just a weather-related temporary shortage. But acts of God and of man ( 1973 oil thingee ) can and do trigger inflationary expectations. Not sure that romaine will be sufficient ( 8^ ) , but there's always that butterfly which has the potential to set off a chaos cascade.......................

(Wed May 06 1998 22:40 - ID#307271)
Thanks for the neat reponse. I am beginning to understand your quasistatic approach. Your polynomes intrigue me. Keep up the inovative work, but please! do a gold chart for us.

(Wed May 06 1998 22:42 - ID#253228)
I only toy with Elliott waves. I can always understand a count after it has finished, but while it is developing I can imagine a number of possibilities. If I relied on my wave counts I would soon go broke.

This work of predicting the future is a little on the insane side to begin with, and if I didn't think that myself, I know many people who are willing to tell me that.

Whenever I am exposed financially based on my cycle work I feel uncomfortable and like to find some confirmation outside my own wild work, hence my dabling in Elliott Waves, and I do mean dabling. So, I deferr to you and others like you who understand Elliott.

I appreciate your comment.

(Wed May 06 1998 22:46 - ID#186147)
good advice
Nick: Your 22:31 is very good advice. Keeps the emotions of hope and fear from picking one's pocket. Something I posted elsewhere:Oleman . . Wed, May 6, 9:46PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
hanobi: Pardon me for not answering----been away a while. Dont know how far we gotta go down to get the
requisite amount of fear in the market. The charts will tell us. The fear that turns the market at a bottom is NOT
the fear of the bloodied bulls. Their emotion at this point is HOPE. They hope the market will turn and rescue
them from their mistake.. The bears, who are in profitable short postitions will reach a point where their FEAR that a rally will take
away some/most/all of their profit causes them to cover. That is what causes a slide to stop. Just the REVERSE
of what most folks think, huh?

(Wed May 06 1998 22:46 - ID#247309)
(newtron & APH re your book references...
newtron - in response to your request for feedback on TRADGEDY & HOPE by Carroll Quigley, check out the Bibliofind website. Included are many copies of this book, and there is reference to a 1990's reprint. Maybe the Rockafellers didn't buy the copyright. Also other titles by same author.

APH - thank you for the reference to Market Wizards - a great read. You've brightened my day!

(Wed May 06 1998 23:00 - ID#411163)
The Euro versus the US$
I have heard pro and con for the Euro being either strong or weak. Weak
because they want to stimulate trade to grow and strong to compete with The US$. I think it will be strong. If the Euro is weak what use is it?
There are many weak currencys. No I think it will be strong right off.
A strong Euro would weaken the dollar, no? That means higher gold yes?
So many dollars that will have no use after the Euro is born. That alone will cause the US$ to drop. If they can take over some of the US$ use as a reserve currency it will further weaken the US$. Japan at some point will sell a lot more of our debt also.
Later, when we have had our bubble popped, they can then start depreciating the Euro but they will still be a stronger currency

(Wed May 06 1998 23:02 - ID#256250)
A 58.9 percent rise in Japan's customs-cleared trade surplus
WOW! These poor puppies got 561.24 billion yen in 20 days. At that rate they have 5.61 tillion yen in 200 days, or 10.23 trillion in a year.

Wednesday May 6, 9:01 pm Eastern Time

Japan Apr 20-day surplus rose on weak imports--MOF

TOKYO, May 7 ( Reuters ) - A 58.9 percent rise in Japan's customs-cleared trade surplus to 561.24 billion yen for the first 20 days of April from the same period a
year ago was due to weak imports, a Finance Ministry official said on Thursday.

The ministry said earlier that imports fell 14.0 percent in the period, and there was a 4.8 percent drop in exports.

The official told reporters there were hardly any import items which rose in year-on-year terms. A drop in world oil prices caused a large fall in the value of oil-related imports, while the weak domestic housing market was responsible for a fall in wood product imports, he said.

Car exports continued to grow, although the pace of growth had slowed, while there were falls in exports of semiconductors, electronic parts and car parts, he said.

(Wed May 06 1998 23:04 - ID#335190)
Property law & Common law @ FWIW......History of Law..USofA & Kanata,wanted freedom. Many died.
Shortly after asserting his right to the throne, William effectively leased out the greater part of his new realm.. Most of the land was granted to Norman nobles who had assisted William in the Conquest, but some was granted back to the Anglo-Saxon nobility in return for pledges of loyalty to the new regime. The feudal system of land tenure which came into being after 1066 formed the basis of .......English PROPERTY LAW UNTIL 1921, .........and it still forms the basis of REAL PROPERTY LAW in some parts of the British Commonwealth today.

Just as importantly, however, feudalism laid the foundation for a stable system of government in which the institutions of civil authority could develop and replace dictatory military rule.

Although important differences are apparent between the common law system and the civil law system, both are strongly influenced by the precepts of Christianity and, to a greater or lesser extent, by Roman law. Together, the common law and the civil law constitute the Western legal tradition.

Because its long, close relationship with France, Scotland has a civil law system rather than a common law one. Nearly four hundred years of unity with England and Wales, however, and almost three hundred years of rule by the British parliament, have meant that much of its statute law is the same as Englands.

Quebec, which once belonged to France, is in a similar position in Canada, as is Louisiana in the United States of America.

From the earliest times after the Conquest ( the year 1066 is one of the watershed dates in legal history, for the conquest of England by William, duke of Normandy ) , the kings had gathered around them a body of trusted advisors. This body was known as the Curia Regis the kings court. But court was used in its older sense of referring to the sovereigns personal retinue, rather than in the modern judicial sense.

The Curia Regis functioned as a general advisory body, providing the king with counsel and advice before he made decisions. To draw an analogy ( albeit a very broad one ) with modern terminology, we might think of it as being not unlike a board of advisors for the kingdom.

Gradually, though--probably because the king wished to be relieved of some of the more tedious aspects of ruling--some decisions began to be left to members of the Curia Regis itself.

In addition to Curia Regis, the kings began to appoint officials called justiciars. The justiciars acted as a form of viceroy in the kings absence from England, something which was common in the decades immediately followed the Conquest. The English kings, it will be remembered, were still the Dukes of Normandy with extensive land holdings in France. Indeed, it was not until the reign of King John, which began in 1199, that a post-Conquest English king spent more time in England than he did abroad.

The appointment of these royal delegates--the Curia Regis and the justiciars---marked an important step in the transformation of the common law from a personal instrument of the king to a real apparatus of government. As one would expect, in the early days, if one wanted to seek the kings intercession in a dispute, one had to approach the king himself.

This meant going to where the king happened to be in residence---which was not always an easy thing, particularly if he happened to be in the HOLY LAND ON A CRUSADE, as some of the English kings were at the time. But with delegates who could in the kings absence act on his behalf, and importantly, render decisions in his name, the lot of the seeker of royal justice was much easier.

Even more significant was the appointment, which began in the twelfth century, of Justices in Eyre ( Justiciae errantes--itinerant justices ) , a group of travelling justices who, although not necessarily members of the Curia Regis, carried the kings commission to hear and resolve disputes in all parts of the country. For the purposes of these itinerant commissions, England was divided into a series of regions, or circuits, which formed a basis of legal administration in England until the 1970s.

At the same time, the Curia Regis continued to have a significant involvement in what we would think of as judicial business, for large numbers of people continued to approach the Royal Household with their problems. As the Household became more and more busy, the Curia Regis began to sub-divide into more specialised bodies. Over time, the curia Regis gave birth to a body of professional judges whose job it was to hear disputes between ( or the pleas of ) common folk,.............This body became known as the Court of Common Pleas.............One of the demands which the unhappy King John agreed to in  MAGNA CARTA.... ( 1215 - Great Charter King John - unpopular king - nobles known as BARONS rose up against King John - they demanded certain freedoms - Start of our Modern Constitution - Guarantee that justice would neither be delayed nor denied ) ... was that the Court of Common Pleas would not travel with the king, but would remain in a fixed place. This was later designated as Westminster, and the Common Pleas were heard there until the court ceased to exist, over 660 years later.

There was also a body of specialised ...financial advisors....who came to hear disputes involving the royal revenue. Because the table at which this body sat was covered with a chequer-patterned cloth, it came to be known as the Court of Exchequer. It is for this reason also that the modern-day British Treasurer is known as the Chancellor of the Exchequer.

Beyond the Common Pleas and the Exchequer, there remained a group of advisors who continued to travel with the king. These travelling advisors came over time to be divided into two sorts: those whose task it was to advise on ( or carry out in the kings name ) the resolution of individual disputes, and those whose job it was to advise on more general questions of policy.

Although there continued for a long time to be considerable overlap between the two divisions in terms of membership, the latter became known as the Council, while the former became known as the Coram Rege, or Kings Bench. Unlike the Common Pleas, the Kings Bench had a monopoly on those disputes involving the king himself, or touching upon royal interests.

These three dispute-resolving institutions: the Common Pleas, the Exchequer and the Kings Bench, are together known as the common law courts and it was through their work that the distinctive English system of justice known as the common law first blossomed and later flourished.

Trials by ordeal and battle reflected an expression of faith that GOD would identify the wrong-doer. The ordeal was commonly used in criminal cases. There were different forms of ordeal: the scalding of a hand or arm with boiling water or the burning of the hand with a red-hot iron ( the healing of the hand or arm within a certain period of time being a sign from GOD that the person was not guilty ) were two commonly used ordeals, as was the casting of an accused person in a pool of water ( in which case floating was a sign of guilt---that he or she had been rejected by the water )

Trial by ordeal came to an end in 1215, when the Church forbade the participation by PRIESTS in the process. Trial by battle was used in non-criminal cases, but it was based on a similar premise--that GOD would not allow a party in the wrong to be victorious.

The first assembly called a Parliament was summoned in 1265 by Simon de Montford, an important noble of the day, after he had led a rebellion and captured the king. It was thirty years later, however in 1295, that the antecedent of what we would recognise today as our conception of a Parliament was summoned by King Edward I ( because of this, the 1295 assembly is often referred to by historians as the Model Parliament. The Model Parliament included, in addition to the nobles, representatives of the clergy and the commoners

The first of the Stuart kings, James I ( who was also James VI of Scotland ) was a firm adherent to the theory of the so-called divine right of kings. In a speech given to parliament in 1610, James outlined his theory of the place of the monarch in the natural order. Kings his Majesty asserted, are not only GODS lieutenants upon earth and sit upon GODS THRONE but even by GOD himself they are called GODS.... James high-handed manner led to conflict.

FWIW...If GOD, floats your boat, so be it...Take Care

Gianni Dioro__A
(Wed May 06 1998 23:04 - ID#384350)
A Goose, Romaine Spuds
Spuds are in tight supplies as well.

An Irish friend was telling me how the potato crops in Ireland aren't going so well, making him think of Irish history of famine

I told him how I read that the earnings of Pepsicola's Frito Lay division were hurt because they have had to pay a whole lot more for round potatoes ( add an "e" in plural form, Danforth ) for their potato ( no "e" in singular ) chips because these spuds are in tight supplies.

But like you said, inflation doesn't really exist.

(Wed May 06 1998 23:06 - ID#289433)
@ Nick Re: your 22:31
I am probably the most novice, shouldn't be doing this guy in the world, but that was excellent advice. I just started using stops and brother let me tell you I sleep better. Frustrated, yes, but I am making a little doing it. A base hit is better than not getting on at all.

A little loss or gain and you live to fight another day.

Gusto Oro
(Wed May 06 1998 23:20 - ID#377235)
Asia's tanking again tonight. Hong Kong under 10,000. Japan approaching 15,000. Malaysia bleeding badly. --AG

(Wed May 06 1998 23:30 - ID#267344)
Yes, Asia is tanking.
Also, by far the largest interstellar explosion ever witnessed was seen at a distance from Earth approximately equal in miles to the US Public Debt in dollars - just to help you all visualize the astronomical figures that we are dealing with!
As power is shifting on Earth, a new god is born among the galaxies. Yep, definately a sign...
- c

(Wed May 06 1998 23:32 - ID#256250)
Date: Wed May 06 1998 22:40
aurophile ( A. Goose ) ID#256326:

You know it. They already have half a dozen reasons ready and when that doesn't work anymore ... they will issue government coupons for lettuce ( and everything else we can't get ) at an even lower price ( to make us happy ) ... but we will just have to wait in this big long line and ... when we finally get into the store ... it will be all gone ... but they will give us a couple of extra new coupons for next week to make us even happier, because prices are getting even lower.

What really scares me, is I am starting to believe a lot of folks could buy into this program. ( Naaa I just need more sleep. )

Paper gold works so why not paper romaine. ( :? )

(Wed May 06 1998 23:33 - ID#93199)
Fidelity Select Gold Chart
Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious Metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )

Gold Crash!

(Wed May 06 1998 23:40 - ID#256250)
Date: Wed May 06 1998 23:04
Gianni Dioro__A ( A Goose, Romaine Spuds ) ID#384350:

Thanks for the input.
Maybe, just maybe we are seeing the begining of a nasty little trend in these commodities ( food basket ) . Companies can continue to eat their loses and get killed on the street when they report earnings OR raise prices. What will they do???? As I see it, it will be nasty either way.

(Wed May 06 1998 23:45 - ID#267344)
Would someone who advocates inflation please explain to me how you can have an equities crash and inflation at the same time period?? One or the other in my book, not both. Either way, BE PREPARED.
- c

(Wed May 06 1998 23:46 - ID#284255)
Don't forget to bring that see though thingy with you
When you come up here to the beach
We'll need it to measure the mud crabs.

Cheers mate

(Wed May 06 1998 23:57 - ID#335190)
Merger @ Chrysler $40 Billion
May 6, 1998

Daimler, Chrysler agree $40 bln merger - source

DETROIT ( Reuters ) - Chrysler Corp. and Germany's Daimler-Benz AG agreed Wednesday night to an industry- shaking
$40 billion merger that will create a global auto giant straddling the Atlantic, a source close to the deal said.