Gold - Edged below the bottom of the original channel I had drawn ( shown in solid lines ) , but must drop to around 293 to hit the bottom of the dotted line channel. This is the channel I favor at the moment. Yes, I could fudge the lines of the original channel a bit, but I don't think that's what's going on at the moment. The question is, if gold hits 293, will it stop there? Perhaps the other metals will tell us something.
Silver - You may recall, I have never been too confident in the silver channel I was using, so I have no problem adjusting this channel to accomodate the recent low. However, the big overwhelming concern is the huge pennant pattern that must break soon. APH now seems very confident that silver will see 5.50, if not 5.00. I think Cyclist also is predicting something like this. D.A. seems confident that the positive fundamentals will soon take effect. ( Unless he has changes his mind this morning, since I haven't caught up on my reading ) . I tend to favor the downside, which of course has negative implications for gold.
Platinum - I think something is happening here. Platinum has barely, but clearly, broken through the bottom of my channel. This channel has held for a long time and has been very good at predicting reverses, especially when platinum hits the channel top. I could drop the channel bottom to accomodate the recent low. In fact, this would then accomodate the spike to last years low in early December, which I had chosen to ignore. But again, I don't think this is what is happening. I see two possibilities. One is shown in dotted lines. This I consider a worst case. It would lead to a near term low in platinum of 275-280. Another less radical solution would be if platinum is now forming a new channel bottom defined by connecting the recent lows to the lows in March. This is also a downward-trending channel, but not near as steep. Neither of these possibilities are consistent with RJ's very strong conviction that platinum is headed for the moon in the near future. This does worry me. So I guess I will wimp out and not take a big position either way in PL until things clear up.
Palladium - Is finally, and rapidly correcting. It still has a long way to go to even hit the long term upward trend line. It is interesting that PL started following PA down, but it almost totally ignored the last very steep drop in PA. However, PA futures also ignored this $40 drop in the spot price, which is really weird. This picture should start to clear up next week.
So, in conclusion, in paraphrasing one of my early stock brokers, I am very certain that if the metals don't go up next week, they will go down. Unless they remain unchanged. :- )
If anyone's crystal ball is clearer than mine, let's hear it.
Date: Fri May 08 1998 22:48
Thomas ( New Doubts ) ID#372400:
Copyright 1998 Thomas/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
You say: Dollars are paper money. But you can buy the gold you love so much, so dollars are not only paper -- there is some gold in them, is it not?
If financial crisis will come, it will be a pretty slow process.
*******
You are quite right, it will be a slow proces. The mistake many people are making is that they think the process has just started. In fact, the process started quite some time ago. It is only in the last scene of the last act that the Euro was born. The curtain is coming down.
Don't be fooled by what we are finally able to see. We can only see the curtain, not all the work the stage hands have been doing all these many years to kep the USdollar on stage.
So you should restate you point as: it was a slow process, it started many years ago and the USG has been takeing advantage of it for far to long. The Euro now exists. Asia is looking for a alternative to the USdollar. The world is tired of the USdollar, the trend is no longer the friend to the USdollar.
IMO
you also state:
"You say: Dollars are paper money. But you can buy the gold you love so much, so dollars are not only paper -- there is some gold in them, is it not?"
The Indonesian's were saying the same thing about their currency a few short months ago. Now they can not afford gold bullion, but bullion is valued in other currencies. I suspect that currencies are ebbing and flowing around gold and not the reverse.
Hope this helps.