Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

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(Sat May 09 1998 00:03 - ID#20135)

Date: Fri May 08 1998 22:48
Thomas ( New Doubts ) ID#372400:
Copyright  1998 Thomas/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
You say: Dollars are paper money. But you can buy the gold you love so much, so dollars are not only paper -- there is some gold in them, is it not?

If financial crisis will come, it will be a pretty slow process.


You are quite right, it will be a slow proces. The mistake many people are making is that they think the process has just started. In fact, the process started quite some time ago. It is only in the last scene of the last act that the Euro was born. The curtain is coming down.

Don't be fooled by what we are finally able to see. We can only see the curtain, not all the work the stage hands have been doing all these many years to kep the USdollar on stage.

So you should restate you point as: it was a slow process, it started many years ago and the USG has been takeing advantage of it for far to long. The Euro now exists. Asia is looking for a alternative to the USdollar. The world is tired of the USdollar, the trend is no longer the friend to the USdollar.


you also state:
"You say: Dollars are paper money. But you can buy the gold you love so much, so dollars are not only paper -- there is some gold in them, is it not?"

The Indonesian's were saying the same thing about their currency a few short months ago. Now they can not afford gold bullion, but bullion is valued in other currencies. I suspect that currencies are ebbing and flowing around gold and not the reverse.

Hope this helps.

Gianni Dioro__A
(Sat May 09 1998 00:05 - ID#384350)
AragornIII, yer 17:08
Someone mentioned a week ago about paying a cabbie one oz. of gold for 10 rides to the airport.

In using your reasoning I ask, "Did the hack really deserve an ounce of gold for 10 trips to the airport?" I don't think so.

I'll pay the hack $30 in FRN's, but he ain't getting my Gold.

Time to accumulate.

(Sat May 09 1998 00:06 - ID#202123)
I heard that someone ( a kid under 18 ) has develpoed a program that fixes the Y2K problem rather painlessly and quickly. The program fits on a 31/2 and takes about 30 minutes per computer/system.

Wouldn't this ease the concern about the Y2K somewhat. His company used it and they are nation wide. As far as I know, they are satisfied and feel it has corrected the problem

Just curious---any thoughts.


(Sat May 09 1998 00:07 - ID#411150)
..... Mozel .....

I read all your stuff and am much impressed with the depth of research and thought that goes into your message.

However, it seems sometimes that, rather than a different angle viewed, opposition is portrayed by you to have no vision at all. I too have offered this face and I recognize it well. Others may disagree and still understand. I am going to be sorry I wrote these words as they will surely come back to haunt me.

Uh Oh

(Sat May 09 1998 00:16 - ID#286230)
Don't forget the Saw Palmetto guys. Not sure if you can get it with gold specks but it might help you pass a good spec.

(Sat May 09 1998 00:17 - ID#31868)
weiser - I do not profess to be an expert on the subject but from what I have
read the single largest problem is the embedded chip systems and there are hundreds of millions of them. The problem is also one wherein certain systems can be compliant but will not be able to interact with systems that are not.

Either way, I suggest a back-up plan of 30 - 90 - 180 days - it is very difficult for people to think in longer terms and I am unsure if various problems which are life threatening would last longer than 6 months.

I personally am a nut job and I am making provisions for a one year worst case scenario. But I am an optimist.

(Sat May 09 1998 00:18 - ID#372400)
Let it put this way. All transactions in gold are in US$. So, the change in price of gold will not be in big jump. At first sign of shifting gold deals into DM,EURO or something else, the curtain will fall. Here I agree with you. Or USG might try to prohibit gold to be sold/bought outside of federal institutions -- this also will mean that dollars became just paper.

John B__A
(Sat May 09 1998 00:20 - ID#211105)
There is no single solution to Y2K bugs. They are present in various forms in both software and hardware. HOWEVER, separate solutions will arise to answer every variation it manifests well before the clock strikes 12 that fateful eve.

(Sat May 09 1998 00:23 - ID#20135)
FWN: 140402 GMT

COMEX Estimated Volumes for Today


Gold 23,000
Silver 13,000
H.G. Copper 10,000

-- ( Quoted in Troy Ounce )
Net. Adjust- Total
Chg. ment Today

-10,026 5,210 37,600,117
0 -5,210 51,485,629
-10,026 0 89,085,746

warehouse stocks:
-- GOLD ( Quoted in Troy Ounce )
Prev. Received Net. Adjust- Total
Total Withdrawn Chg. ment Today

528,159 0 0 0 0 528,159
178,524 0 0 0 0 178,524
706,683 0 0 0 0 706,683

Warehouse stocks:

Copper - high-grade cathodes ( in short tons )
point previous received withdrawn net chg total

Total 103,068 0 1,098 -1,098 101,970

Goodnight all.

(Sat May 09 1998 00:23 - ID#31868)
weiser - oh yeah, I forgot, the best part of the whole Y2K situation. Nobody can
tell anybody anything until the clock strikes that particular evening as tests are only that, and no massive interactive testing has even been attempted, at least from what I have read.

(Sat May 09 1998 00:25 - ID#284255)
They are probably talking about the quick fix for the bios-cmos.
There are numerous versions of this and each time they clain to have solved Y2K.
The Bios/cmos aspect is only a small partof the overall problem.

Have a prowl through these few sites: - Yourdon - Y2K general info expert. - Y2K homepage - Gary North - Y2K general info expert. - Rick Cowles - Y2K Electric utilities expert. - Ed Yardini - World ecomomist Y2K expert. - Ed Yardini - World ecomomist Y2K expert - Texas Tech University

Daily press articles; - AFR articles

Links pages; - General Links - Electric Industry Links - very good selection. - Texas Tech University - Gov't & Uni. links - General links - General links - General links

(Sat May 09 1998 00:25 - ID#31868)
sharefin - you out there?
How did the Utility Y2K meeting go today. It is today there right? I can never tell if it is today, tomorrow or yesterday there!?!?!

(Sat May 09 1998 00:25 - ID#153102)
There are "visions" to which I am opposed, The Animal Farm by any name being one of them. In that "vision", except for trading in and out of paper against the other inhabitants of The Rat Farm, there is no point to Gold.

Just think of me as an itsy bitsy version of Paul Revere, knocking on doors here to say, "The Reds are coming."

(Sat May 09 1998 00:26 - ID#284255)
International Frocaster. on Y2K
The millennium butterfly spread is upon us. These are derivative contracts to link money market rates in Dec 1999 with rates of Sept 1999 and March 2000. The bet is interest rates will rise, as financial problems multiply, due to companies and countries not being prepared for the year 2000. In anticipation of the discovery of their imcompetence, business has asked Congress for protection from lawsuits as a result of Millennium bug. These major corporations want legislation capping financial damages as the day of reckoning draws near. This could mean melt down for Algore, the high-tech guru. It is increasingly clear that a large number of federal computer systems won't be prepared for the date change. The gravity is enormous, 40% of the Treasury's and 60% of the Defense Dept. computers will be uncorrected. The financial industry is probably the closet to doing what has to be done. The gov't budgeted just $3.9 billion for a $39 billion problem. Other countries lag as much as we do. Estimated England has a $4.2 billion problem and they are only 10% towards solving it. Govt. and companies, as in America, have yet to come to grips with the full extent of the problem. The govt's are most at risk, but try suing them. The industries and companies most at risk are banks, brokers, insurance companies and telecommunications firms. You can see there is an even more pressing reason why there will be no budget surplus. Less than half of federal agencies will be ready by 2000. The Dept of Energy will be ready in 2019, Dept of Defense in 2012. Unfortunately government doesn't have a clue to the seriousness of the situation. Us prophets of doom, us doomsayers, are unfortunately again going to be right. In a filing with the SEC, several major banks disclosed major loan losses would occur as a result of Y2K US hedge funds have taken substantial bets, in the financial markets, that Y2K will paralyze the banking system on 1/1/2000. We predict the event will be preceded by higher interest rates and lower stock market prices beginning in early 1999. We also think there will be a bank holiday, which could last some time. As we recommended last issue, be out of the market in late 1999 except for precious metals stocks. Hold large amounts of cash and small denomination gold and silver coin and prepare as you would for war.

(Sat May 09 1998 00:27 - ID#255284)
Auckland, city of sales, I mean sails
If you're going to be at Easter island for dawn of 1/1/00, why not take in the America's cup on the way to Australia? You may be the first kitcoite to meet this salty one. Unfortunately, both AuProducer and sweat had to make other plans--->

Here are the dates
assuming we still have a world, yes?

Here's a picture of Auckland before the lights went out
more pics of my home town

some of the challengers

Gianni Dioro__A
(Sat May 09 1998 00:28 - ID#384350)
Doubting Thomas, Dow/Gold Ratio
Thomas, The Dow/Gold ratio is one of my favorites. You see it shows an inflation adjusted index of the Dow in constant money ( Gold ) . A certain amount of money ( gold ) invested in industry should yield a certain percent. Sometimes asset prices in stocks swing too much one way or the other.

I would think that a chart of Earnings/Gold would be similar to Dow/gold.

As to Div yield, It is a function of Earnings ( portion paid-out ) and Price both which move mostly in the same direction in the long run.

Div yield is an indicator in itself.

John B__A
(Sat May 09 1998 00:30 - ID#211105)
Some Reassuring Words that Support Gold Fundamentals
Anglogold chief says cenbanks plan no gold sales
Reuters, Friday, May 08, 1998 at 15:32
LIMA, May 8 ( Reuters ) - Anglogold ( JOH:ANGJ ) president Bobby Godsell was assured by leading European central bankers that they had no plans to sell their gold reserves in the near future, Godsell said in a news release.

"None of the main holders of gold among the European central banks is thinking of any sale of that metal in the near future, nor of selling any considerable part of their gold reserves," according to the news release at an international gold conference in Peru.

"These assurances have been given particularly by the French, German and Italian authorities, as well as those of other European countries," the statement said. ) )

(Sat May 09 1998 00:35 - ID#411150)
...... EB go WoooooHooooooooooo .....

Enthusiastic gold buyin' fella'

Curb Thy hopes

For but three more weeks

Gold will then be NAB


(Sat May 09 1998 00:36 - ID#255284)
city of seals
First link again

(Sat May 09 1998 00:37 - ID#267344)
Aurator - American Cup - an excellent suggestion! Thanks for the tip!
A meeting!? I would really enjoy that. I will keep in touch.
- c

Sodium Chloride
(Sat May 09 1998 00:37 - ID#289259)
U.S. Constitution
There was some interesting conversation regarding the Constitution before 12.00 EDT. I came home from work and couldn't get it on my home computer, presumably because of the advent of a new day.

The meaning of the U.S. Constitution has been so distorted over the last 200+ years that it doesn't really exist any longer. This country used to be the greatest opportunity any earth mortal could find. Now we spend our time trying to find a way to cover our losses when the dollar tanks. It will! It would have done so when Reagan was elected, but for some reason, the world listened and had confidence in his pronouncements. I didn't ever understand why. The national debt continued to grow and it has never ceased to accelerate.

Now we Americans who have the ability cling to gold to cover our losses when the dollar goes the way of the German Mark in the 20's. I expect it will be sooner than later with the advent of the Euro, the Asian problem, and the fact that the U.S. is the largest debter nation today.

It is too bad that we Americans squandered our wealth.

It is time for those of us who can to hunker down and get ready for the day where we pay for the excesses of our professional politicians.

There is no way that we can go wrong by taking a long position on Gold.



(Sat May 09 1998 00:38 - ID#202123)
tolerant on Y2K
I feel it is also very wise to be prepared. Thanks btw, I'm new here ( although have been a lurker for 3/4 months, with one post previously ) .

Gianni Dioro__A
(Sat May 09 1998 00:38 - ID#384350)
US Dollerrs fer more.
There's going to be this Huge Sucking sound........

(Sat May 09 1998 00:39 - ID#411150)
..... Mozel .....

One if buy silver

Two if buy gold



(Sat May 09 1998 00:40 - ID#284255)
They put the show on at the local Uni.
There was a library show on at the same time and all these people ( about
20 ) came in and watched this guy give us his talk.
There were 1/2 a doz other people who were interested in the subject there.
What he presented was a superficial overview of what the Y2K problem is.
I spoke quite a bit but there was no audience.
Five of us went to it and I think we knew 10 times as much as he did.
What a let down.
No public
No reponse

As per his stance for electricity, he said that they are working on it and was not at the meeting to represent the power board.
He was very optimistic in that he thought that the problem was fixable.
And thought that I was far too concerned.
"Go home, don't worry and have a party." Where his words.

I asked him about some of the recognized authors on Y2k - Yardini, Cowles, Yourdon and he hasn't even heard of them.

He didn't like me mentioning facts about failures.
I think he lives in a world of denial too.
Uneducated to do what his job is.
FNQEB's Y2K Project Manager.

I commented on recent reports from shipping and oil rig concerns and he was shocked, surprised and quickly changed the subject.

I ended up giving him about 20 pages of info from Cowles site to take away and read.
But I doubt he will.

The final line as far as he was concerned as far as representing the FNQEB was: NO COMMENT.

(Sat May 09 1998 00:42 - ID#255284)
Sodium Chloride
Must say I feel an immediate affinity towards your handle


John B__A
(Sat May 09 1998 00:45 - ID#211105)
Two Positive Fundamental Indicators for Gold
The longer the Fed waits to lift short-term interest rates, the better for gold as an inflation hedge:

WSJ 5/08/98 . . .despite the strength evident in April's employment report, most economists surveyed Friday doubt that Fed policy makers will lift rates when they meet next, on May 19.

WSJ 5/09/98 . . .Economists said that several aspects of the April employment report likely will trouble the Fed: Another month of rapid growth in payrolls; a 4.4% rise in hourly earnings over the last year; and an unemployment rate that's uncomfortably low at 4.3%.

(Sat May 09 1998 00:45 - ID#255284)

ah yes, the ostrich approach to Y2K. Don't worry, have a party.

Do da apocalypso

(Sat May 09 1998 00:46 - ID#153102)
@RJ Clever, you win the prize.

(Sat May 09 1998 00:49 - ID#20135)
Date: Sat May 09 1998 00:18
Thomas ( A.Goose ) ID#372400:

"All transactions in gold are in US$."


Thomas, I don't think all transactions of gold are made in terms of the USdollar. As SDRer has pointed a lot of international trade agreements are based on the SDR and the Gold Franc.

I assume ( and maybe lurkers can correct me ) that when you purchase gold and silver in other countries, the transactions are made directly between the local currency and gold. When I buy gold in Switzerland, I pay the bullion dealer directly in Swiss francs and directly receive my bullion. The USdollar in never accessed in the transaction.

When I live in Australia, I ask what is the price of gold. they say ??? dollars. To what they reference is Australian dollars. I take my Aussie dollars and directly buy the gold.

As best I can tell, the USG has done a brilliant job in getting everyone to post prices relative to the USdollar. That may give the impression that everything trades everywhere in the world in USdollars, but I don't think that the transactions in reality occur in the USdollar. A beautiful faade. A paper thin reference, has be the foundation of the USG fiat reserve currency. IMO.

But I suppose the important point it that we booth agree that the power of the Usdollar is extremely fragile and in grave straits a this time.


I assume ( and maybe lurkers can correct me ) that when you purchase gold and silver in other countries, the tracnsactions are made directly between the local currency and gold. When I buy gold in Switzerland, I pay the bullion dealer directly in swiss francs and directly receive my bullion. The USdollar in never accessed in the transaction.

When I live in Australia, I ask what is the price of gold. they say ??? dollars. To what they reference is Australian dollars. I take my Aussie dollars and directly buy the gold.

As best I can tell, the USG has done a brillant job in gettting everyone to post prices relative to the USdollar. That may give the impression that everything trades everywhere in the world in USdollars, but I don't think that the transactions in reality occur in the USdollar. A beautiful facid

(Sat May 09 1998 00:51 - ID#202123)
Thoughts on Y2K
Thanks. Bottom line--- we won't know untill the fat lady sings

(Sat May 09 1998 00:55 - ID#255284)
see how much this salty one has learned, Got it!
RJ / Mozel

One if buy silver

Two if buy gold

(Sat May 09 1998 01:00 - ID#287277)
When you purchase gold in France or Germany, you pay in FRF or DEM, not USD
Auguste Rodin: Thinker - Gold 1oz
Auguste Rodin ( 1840-1917 ) , one of the world's best known
sculptors, left us with many different and diverse sculptures most
dealing with themes combining Naturalism and Romanticism. In all
four sculptures were cast. These can be found in museums in Paris,
Zurich, Philadelphia and Tokyo.
The Monnaie de Paris price for 1 OZ gold coin is..FRF 5000,00

On Tuesday, May 5, 1998
5000 French Franc = 837.000 US Dollar

The 5 ounce Gold Rodin coin is 22500 FRF
On Tuesday, May 5, 1998
22500 French Franc = 3766.50 US Dollar

How many golden eagles can YOU buy for $3766.50
How many of Barts BEAUTIFUL Mounties can you buy for $3766.50?

Bill Buckler
(Sat May 09 1998 01:01 - ID#256381)
Buying Gold WITHOUT US Dollars
Thomas ( 22:48 and 00:18 ) Two short points. First, I have never paid US Dollars for Gold in my life. Second, you can buy anything for US Dollars, not just Gold. To say that Gold is "part" of the Dollar because you can buy Gold for Dollars is a non sequitur.

By the way, you can buy anything with Gold too. There are even some places in the world where you don't have to change it into Dollars, or anything else, first.

(Sat May 09 1998 01:02 - ID#372400)
You wrote:

"When I live in Australia, I ask what is the price of gold. they say ??? dollars. To what they reference is Australian dollars. I
take my Aussie dollars and directly buy the gold."

If A$ changes in in US$ by 10%, how price of gold will change in A$?

It would be interesting to check, what currencies US$ dominate in the above sense. Question of currency vs. gold seems to me to be a question of trust. The closer trust in a currency is to the trust in gold, the more reasonable to say, that the gold is priced in that currency. Significant moves in gold price in US$ ( like hoped for $3000 ) shall be preceded by shift of the trust into another currency. That was my point.

(Sat May 09 1998 01:03 - ID#339212)
VENGOLD Loses $2 M for 1Q 98 - 2 cents per share

(Sat May 09 1998 01:04 - ID#287277)
Is this for 'Real'?
Programmes: Industrial Technologies
Turning water into gold

In Brief ...

Drawing on existing analytical techniques, this project developed a reliable way to detect minute amounts of gold dissolved in water from streams, springs and boreholes. This has proved to be a valuable addition to previous ways of locating gold deposits, especially as it can pinpoint the source of the gold to within a few hundred metres.

Fieldwork in Sardinia and the UK has shown that the new technique agrees with previous prospecting methods and can also find gold in areas where other methods are less useful. The results suggest than an integrated multidisciplinary methodology is an efficient prospecting tool for gold. A new gold mine in Sardinia, due to start production in early 1997, is commercial proof that the new techniques work.

PL-119 Full Title: Development of geochemical, geophysical and remote sensing methods for the prospecting of gold deposits, with particular attention to the role of hydrogeochemistry
Information: Mr. Marino Boi
Contivecchi 7
I-09122 Cagliari
Tl. +39 70 271 685
Fx. +39 70 271 402

Dr Rosa Cidu
University of Cagliari
Department of Earth
via Trentino 51
I-09127 Cagliari
Tl. +39 70 200 62 20
Fx. +39 70 28 22 36

SpA ( Italy )
 British Geological
Survey ( UK )
 University of Antwerp
( Belgium )
 University of Cagliari
( Italy )

(Sat May 09 1998 01:05 - ID#240266)
Unfortunately the attitude on the part of the Y2K manager
is indicative of the complacentcy just about everywhere you look.
Confidence in the American dollar will erode as the complacentcy
ends.I'm a buyer of physical gold and I ain't giving it up!

Sodium Chloride
(Sat May 09 1998 01:13 - ID#289259)
Good night all. Thank you Aurator for your response.

(Sat May 09 1998 01:16 - ID#372400)
Bill Buckler
Sorry, I didn't make myself clear.

Until there is no barriers to exchanging US$ or any other currency freely exchangable into US$, and buying gold is a matter putting US bills on the table, the dollars are not just paper. When dealers refuse to accept currency in exchange for gold, then it become just paper.

Many readers will argue that if at least 5% of owner of US$ will become aware of dollar' "paper" nature, then they will rush to exchange bills to gold, but will not do the reverse exchange, and --- currency collapse.
That all depends on that "if". My point is that it didn't happen yet and
you can freely buy "BEAUTIFUL Monties" for US$. Is it not so?
US$ is not "just paper" yet. It will be only when free dealer will not accept your US$ as payment for gold coins.

(Sat May 09 1998 01:21 - ID#255151)

Wow. You never know what topic will become hot at Kitco on a particular day. Let me add my to Fluorins worth. Magnets. Yes Magnets Hope this has some attraction for you and doesn't polarize the group.

(Sat May 09 1998 01:35 - ID#255151)
ThD Doctor of Thinkology

Personally, I think we are missing the boat by leaving out Phrenology, that much maligned and noble science. The concept, that the bumps on the skull reflect the inner psyche, is as logical as it is elegant. The post Y2K world will need many good Phrenologists.

(Sat May 09 1998 01:36 - ID#284255)
Complacency at all levels
Windy lake, Aurator


Public campain to still the fear, allay the worries?

Placebo for the masses.

"It doesn't get better than this"

I think Allens reply covered this question.
I think property prices will go the way of the Dow.
Over the next five years.
But there will be great buying to be had along the way.

(Sat May 09 1998 01:46 - ID#287277)
Sharefin--What a disappointment!
But this is our world, our time; people willingly suspend disbelief
for any person who is labeled Expert , and no matter how idiotic
that persons diatribe, too many will sit like passive sponges.
Perhaps, by your spirited challenges, you planted a small seed in at least one mind...

Goodnight. {:- )

(Sat May 09 1998 01:47 - ID#22072)
Aurator - Maples in NZ?
IYDMMA, do I recall correctly you had the name of a supplier of maples in New Zealand? ( My email is )

(Sat May 09 1998 01:52 - ID#240266)
In 1917 my family was living in southern Russia in what is
now known as Georgia.Being Menonites they were anational and
quite independent.They bought gold and found themselves in Canada.
They bought their way out of slavery.Ask me if I'm a buyer of
gold that you can hold!

(Sat May 09 1998 01:57 - ID#227238)
Sniffing the waters.
SDRer: That is really a neat discovery technique 'n I'm they are mighty proud of it. But what we really need is some new method of sniffing out more customers. ...... Interesting approach though.

(Sat May 09 1998 02:04 - ID#255284)
Golden kiwis fly again

Mapes are few and far between, I tend to grab any I uncover, but you can always buy 1 oz Golden kiwis, 9999 and guaranteed NZ gold at very close to spot from Morris & Watson in Onehunga, ph: 0800 500 654. Usually just a little more expensive than JM slabs, but so much more beautiful.

(Sat May 09 1998 02:06 - ID#411224)
@Bill Buckler regarding gold as money
In fact, you can use gold anywhere in the world without changing it into fiat currency. I am referring to e-gold. Check out:

e-gold is a transnational electronic medium of exchange backed 100% by gold, administered by Gold & Silver Reserve, Inc ( G&SR ) . G&SR makes an exchange market ( 24 hours/day, 7 days/week ) from/to DM, yen, SFr, FFr, Aus$, CAD$, GBP. For trans-national e-metal payments, you may price your goods and services by weight of metal or in terms of the various fiat units listed.

Bill said:

By the way, you can buy anything with Gold too. There are even some places in the world where you don't have to change it into Dollars, or anything else, first.

(Sat May 09 1998 02:11 - ID#290118)
Gonna be a hot time in the wheat prairie
and recessions coinciding with the 11 year sunspot cycle.
We are due! It is all coming together!

(Sat May 09 1998 02:16 - ID#233199)
@SDR: Long URL Problem

Long URL's destroy the margins on this board for many viewers.
Please split long URL's after the " http:// " and leave a note that other users will have to cut, rejoing, and paste.

Thank you

(Sat May 09 1998 02:22 - ID#22072)
Kiwi's worth their weight in...?
Thanks Aurator. I have been watching the MW prices on NZ teletext and when ( hypothetically ) buying and selling back the cost of bars is 4.4% ( excluding bar charge ) kiwis 7.6% and maples 7.9%. As I haven't done this before this seemed a little steep?

I was aware they were thin on the ground - that's why I pricked my ears up about a month ago? I believe maples are still worth the extra 0.3% in some peoples eyes?

(Sat May 09 1998 02:36 - ID#255284)
More coin stuff
my email explains why JM slabs are more liquid. The difference in purchase price represents bar charges and mint charges, and, in the case of Mapes, "shipping" & "scarcity costs" Essentially, you should expect to pay more for minting these beautiful coins. In NZ it is labour intensive, usually double stamping. The JM slabs are real ugly fellas, but they got JM and 9999 and weight stamped in them crudely. I've been hearing about some real crude Fiji gold coins from the 80's, real "primitive" assaying and stamping techniques apparently produced a coin remininscent of the rougher coins of ancient Rome. Minting and assaying costs.

on to my 2nd Hot Toddy, chasing the bad bugs away with whiskey lemon and honey

(Sat May 09 1998 02:43 - ID#284255)
This site has quite a good overview.
Thanks mate.

@Planter of thoughts in other peoples minds.
It's a lowly paid job but the satisfaction is there

(Sat May 09 1998 02:57 - ID#153102)
@Securing The Gold
From crooked government.
It is quite difficult for crooked government to use honest law against people that know some law.
For example, it was recently posted that a Tax Court held that golden eagles were "property" and not "money". Of course, a Tax Court is not a judicial court. It is an Executive Tribunal, more properly described as a Confiscation Court. It is the very thing the Seventh Amendment was put in the Constitution to prevent. But, the Tax Court's ruling was in response to a government petition. The government is now on record stating that golden eagles are "property" and not "money". This is delicious.

A chattel property can be pledged to a Trust, for example. This creates a lien, a common law lien. A common-law lien is not assignable. The interest of a common-law lien-holder is not subject to attachment, nor can it be taken on execution. You and the Trustee can ignore any blah blah from the federal communists and if they do find and take the gold, the Trustee has all recovery actions ( replevin, trespass, and trover ) at common-law available for recovery OF THE THING.

(Sat May 09 1998 02:58 - ID#255151)

Just checked out the site provided by Squirrel. A date to watch is 6/1/98. New York State does their 2 year fiscal budgeting then. Let's keep an eye out to see if any problems occur.

(Sat May 09 1998 03:07 - ID#227122)
Sorry for wasting bandwidth but...
Aurator: it seems my email a/c has changed to
My apologies ( sheepish thingy ) .

Bill Buckler
(Sat May 09 1998 03:17 - ID#256381)
Auric, the problem with Phrenology is that the bumps on One's head can be altered, or indeed augmented, by any stray maniac with a 2x4. Come to think of it, being wacked about the ears with a blunt instrument might enhance one"s "phrenology" mightily, but it wouldn't do much for the "inner soul", would it?

(Sat May 09 1998 03:23 - ID#284255)
A Reader's Opinion on Gold Options
Here's a letter from a reader with his point of view on gold options.
Date: Mon, 30 Mar 1998 16:55:55 -0700


 I've been telling my friends and relatives to buy options on gold futures. Here's the info: there are options on gold futures available out to  DECEMBER of 1999!!!! ( do I sound excited yet? ) . However, because these futures are so distant and so thinly traded, most quote machines do not show them as even existing! Most brokers are unaware that they exist. I just happened to find out about them on the gold discussion group, which has a lot of good information about gold in general. The current asking price for options with a $390 "strike price" is $280 each! [They are less now ( May 2, 1998 ) --Scott] Hey, are they crazy--don't they KNOW? ( That is the highest strike price available. ) 

 Remember this date now---the options "expire" on November 13 of 1999, at which point, IF they are 'in the money' ( gold over $390 an ounce ) they are transformed into a 100 ounce Gold futures contract, which in turn expires --I think-- around the third week in December.

 You can open an Options Only futures account at Lind-Waldock for only $2000. 1-800-525-8784. To get a quote, your futures company has to call the trading pit to get a quote directly from them. Be aware that there is a wide spread between the bid and asked price, which varies. The price could be, $250 bid and $280 asked. Also, you will pay a fairly high commission on each option--about $25, which covers both the buy and the sell commission. Will the price of gold per ounce exceed $390 an ounce by November of 1999? I think it is certain to. What I am thinking is this: All through 1999 there will be highly public "object lessons" which will advertise gold to the public--initial  breakdowns that will get on the front page, such as:

 "Gartner predicts that 50 million embedded chips will fail in 1999". Every one is an "ad" to buy gold. 

 Both the Japanese and British corporate fiscal year 2000 begins on April 1, of 1999! ouch! Then there's the state and federal fiscal years 2000 from April 1 through about Oct.1 of 1999! Every foul-up is an ad to buy gold. In addition, I have a quote that says that oil supertankers will be unable to get insurance after January 1, 1999! That should make the papers.

 This does not even include things like:
 --stock market crashes,
 --anticipatory bank runs
 --the "Y2K" movie by Paramount or some other studio which is due out in July of 1999--- --a GREAT ad to buy gold--the movie will make them FEEL the disaster!
 --collapse of bank credit by wary banks
--more statements like the one yesterday by a senior executive of Barclay's Bank in the UK, quoted in the Sunday London Times in their Money section. He said he was telling all his friends to sell their house and buy gold, food, and candles! 
--media frenzy stories of people hoarding
--just a small number of the rich and famous deciding to convert their wealth to gold, "just in case".
--the worst: a Money Conversion Stampede ( "MCS" ) . Why? Because A., one MUST convert one's money just to be and feel safe in preserving one's purchasing power---this is to say, there is NO DOWNSIDE, no risk in converting ones money, but probable loss if one does not. The kicker is, that converting one's money to silver or gold may be a fabulously profitable investment, and one of the few investments available. Trillions of dollars, yen and marks trying to go through a little itty bitty door--gold and silver. There is not all that much around! I read that Warren Buffet and Bill Gates could buy all the gold and silver in the world with their money. Gold and silver stocks on the Comex are at historic lows. You could buy all the gold in the comex warehouse for a check for a mere $50 million dollars.

Just a FEW of these things would drive gold to the skies. 

 I just found out on the discussion board today that it took one poster 2 and a half months to get physical delivery on his comex futures contract---- this is rarely done but it is a legal right, and the whole purpose of the futures contract. Taking delivery on a December '99 option would then fall into 2000 and probably not work, for reasons we all understand. However, if you got an August '99 gold option, probably expiring in July, you might have enough time to take physical delivery of your 100 ounce bar. But it's far better to just sell your option and have your broker wire the money to your bank, then buy the gold from a dealer, such as the Patriot Trading Group 1-800-951-0592. Careful. Only buy from a company like this that will ship immediately from gold in stock. There are a lot of crooked gold companies and they will sell you something and make you wait 6 or 8 weeks to recieve shipment. 

 OK, now how much can one make on these options. Each dollar move in gold above $390 an ounce is worth $100 in profit to your account. If gold goes to $500 an ounce, you make $11,000 less the $280 cost of the option. If gold goes to it's previous high of $875 an ounce, you make $38,500 per option. If gold goes to $1000 an ounce, you make $61,000 per option. Because the current dollar has been inflated since 1980, gold would have to reach $1500 an ounce to equal in real, constant dollar value terms, the old high of $875. 

 I am thinking of these options as true insurance policies. In the event of true calamity in the financial markets, I should be able to make it back on these options. 

 Of course, you can sell back the option on any business day between now and December of 1999. I plan on buying many options, and as gold moves higher during 1999, to sell some off in order to lock in the profit by converting it to gold and gear. This would be done as a hedge against the government shutting down the markets or the market makers declaring bankruptcy, or my brokerage firm declaring bankruptcy. No one knows what the last month will be when you can realistically take profits. So sell some back on the way up, and save a few for the grand finale.

 The central banks may or may not sell more gold to get ready for the EURO. If they do, gold could go down to 250-275???, and the options would go down in price to $190---150??? But no matter what, you can just hang on or buy more.

That's not long to wait.
I think we will get warnings as we go along that will tell us how bad it's going to become.
Have a read of Scott's latest letter.
My guess is that the first few weeks of '99 will be extremely pertinent.
Lots of insurance problems will start to cut in.
Indirect problems that will hamper Y2K.

Go Gold

(Sat May 09 1998 03:30 - ID#284255)
Bill Buckler - Phrenology
I had a phrenologist examine my bumps once.

The most prominent bumps were on my forehead.
These in phrenology mean 'mocking wit' - sh*t stirrer no less.

So phrenology does have its lighter side.

(Sat May 09 1998 03:30 - ID#393224)
All Form, No Substance.
Every afternoon I take my two rottweilers for a 45 minute walk. We sneak up on kangaroos ( they know we're there ) until they thumb their noses at us and leisurely hop off. Also on the lookout for central bankers as it will save me having to feed the dogs.

The male rottie takes a squirt at every passing tree, log, pole and stump. After half an hour he is totally dry. That doesn't stop him. Still lifts his leg and goes through the motions. All Form, No Substance.

Just like many Kitco posters.

(Sat May 09 1998 03:39 - ID#255284)
Phrenology, Phineas Gage and Gold
Bill Buckler / Auric

this talk of phrenology, and " being wacked about the ears with a blunt instrument might enhance one"s "phrenology" mightily but it wouldn't do much for the "inner soul", would it?reminded me once more of Phineas Gage, now he is the fellow, who, while tamping some dynamite with a long tamping iron, suffered the misfortune of an accidental explosion that sent the tamping iron through his forehead, altering his phrenology for ever--------

SEPTEMBER 13, 1848: the accidental explosion of a charge Gage
had just set blew his tamping iron out of the borehole and through the
left side of his skull: it entered point first under this left cheek bone,
exited through the top of his head and landed some 25 to 30 yards
away. Gage was knocked over but may not have lost consciousness,
according to some accounts. Most of the left frontal lobe was
destroyed, but Gage was treated with such skill by Cavendish
physician Dr. John Harlow that he returned to his home in Lebanon,
New Hampshire ten weeks later.

Seven months later, Gage was strong enough to resume work, but
despite exemplary work prior to the accident, his employer would not
return him to his former position. He had become fitful, irreverent, and
grossly profane, showing little deference for other workers. Impatient
and obstinate yet capricious and vacillating, he was unable to settle on
any of the plans he devised for future action. According to his friends,
he was "No longer Gage".

Bust of his altered skull>

the tamping iron

Hey, Cavendish, Vermont, USA is celbrating the 150 years since the incident on 12 - 13 September 1998, perhaps there's a market for Phineas Gage memorial coins, or ahemm, gold bars.....

toddy no 4 incoming..

(Sat May 09 1998 03:40 - ID#255151)
Bill Buckler

Heh heh, We Gold bugs certainly know all about lumps and bumps. A Phrenologist could subspecialize in Kitcology!

(Sat May 09 1998 03:51 - ID#255284)
darned frames
Bust of PG

the bar

(Sat May 09 1998 03:58 - ID#255151)
Good Night All

Been educational and fun. Must get to bed. Nick/sharefin/aurator/Captain--a pleasant good evening sirs. ( sharefin--thanks for site, have bookmarked and will peruse. aurator--Phineas would have fit right in at Kitco, eh! )

(Sat May 09 1998 04:03 - ID#255284)
I want me a Phineas Gage gold-bar. Perhaps it could be marketed to the Body-Piercing Set. You know, like earings, nose-plugs..... I'd just like mine in a presentation box.

there, a special noozild joke to welcome you to kitco.

(Sat May 09 1998 05:09 - ID#284255)
Koenig's Watch
Worth a browse?

(Sat May 09 1998 06:02 - ID#284255)
The Year 2000 / Millennium Bug And Other Major Economic Concerns:
Many cracks have formed underneath our economic surface internationally and domestically. Could the Year 2000 / Millennium Bug be the catalyst to a major world financial correction? Could it be started by one of the other six areas? Or will we experience a correction at all? There is economic giddiness in the U.S. while many other parts of the world are struggling. The next 12 to 18 months will tell the story.

Seven major areas of vulnerability in our world economy:

1. Year 2000 / Millennium bug: The U.S. and the world will be impacted.
2. Southeast Asia: Troubled economies.
3. European Union: The Euro conversion.
4. Middle East peace and oil flow:
5. International Monetary Fund [IMF]: Running short of bailout money.
6. U.S Stock Market: Record multiples and not responding to warnings.
7. Financial derivatives: Are they a house of cards?

(Sat May 09 1998 06:44 - ID#411331)
@A.Goose: Once upon a time in Ontario, a farmer just north of Toronto created a business called
PIGGYLAND. It worked like this. He would raise piglets for yuppie Torontonians who bought the piglet, and then paid a small fee for boarding the animal until it could be marketed at a profit to the buyer.
Pigs were boarded in separate stalls and owners had visiting privleges.
The problem was, the same pig was sold to multiple buyers, and each was given a certificate of ownership. People who sole their pigs were paid from the proceeds of new buyers, not from the sale of mature pigs. The scheme worked fine until two owners showed up one day to look at their pigs, and found only one animal in the stall looking back at them.

It struck me that the paper gold market on COMEX sounds like a piggyland scam. Could it be that bullion banks have sold more gold certificates than there are gold ingots in stalls to back them?????!
Could owners of gold certificates obtain visiting privileges?

(Sat May 09 1998 07:05 - ID#254112)
Y2K Damage Control: Drifting towards Legal Precautionary
Measures. The activities to fix the bug technically havn't stopped, but I'm amazed how the concern is shifting towards "legal coverage" measures.

I get the impression that the management of large corporations doesn't really believe anymore that it can be fixed.

Does anybody know more about the legal situation of IBM with their responsibility for the main frame operating system?

How does IBM get away?

Alberich the Dwarf

(Sat May 09 1998 07:05 - ID#26793)
Mining industry is a target for more frauds like Bre-X

(Sat May 09 1998 07:34 - ID#411331)
@Donald: Although I do not disagree with the article you just posted from the Toronto Star,
its timing is interesting. The STREET is highly concerned about a rotation of money out of equities and into gold and gold mining shares.
The street would rather investors placed money in bonds ( for which brokers can earn commissions ) All the cases mentioned in your article are old news from last year when gold prices were coming down from $350 plus per oz. Fraudulent flogging of gold securities is hardly likely at
gold prices of $300 and less per oz. The STREET continues to whack away at gold at every opportunity. The Toronto Star is an Establishment rag, and will have a vested interest in maintaining the illustion of a healthy equities market. Your article is for herd consumption, as are all articles in mainstream dailies. IMHO.

(Sat May 09 1998 07:41 - ID#254112)
By Barry Chamish

JERUSALEM - The Feral House Publishing, kindly sent me its latest release,
"The Oklahoma City Bombing and the Politics Of Terror," by David Hoffman.
Different readers will find the book shocking for their own reasons. But
what struck me the hardest were the uncanny parallels between the bombing
of the Alfred P. Murrah building on April 19, 1995 and the assassination of Yitzhak Rabin barely six months later. It was as if the same planners were involved in both operations and this, in fact, may well be the case.

Admittedly, the following parallels were drawn after only the first reading of Hoffman's book. Since his thesis is complicated, I will may be oversimplifying his case. Nonetheless, consider the skeleton of the
Oklahoma City plot drawn by Hoffman with my own research and conclusions
about the Rabin murder:

- Timothy McVeigh served in the Marines and was sent overseas to Kuwait.

- Yigal Amir served in the infantry and immediately after discharge was sent by an intelligence unit of the Prime Minister's Office to Riga, Latvia.
+ Once discharged and back home, McVeigh assumed a new personality, one that drove him toward "radical" anti-government organizations.

- Once his assignment ended, Amir returned home, enrolled in university and became a campus "radical" organizer.
+ McVeigh was drawn to a paramilitary right-wing "cult" called Elohim
City and was seen often with a leading ideologue of the group, Andreas

- Amir joined a right-wing anti-government organization called Eyal and befriended its founder, Avishai Raviv.
+ Strassmeir was an FBI plant imported from Germany to infiltrate the
militia movement.

- Raviv was a Shabak ( General Security Services ) officer assigned to
infiltrate the settler movement and Israeli religious, right-wing movements.
+ After the Oklahoma City bombing, the American government protected
Strassmeir from implication in the bombing, despite his proven close ties to McVeigh, and quickly returned him to Germany.

- After the assassination, the whole legal apparatus of the Knesset,
from the Justice Ministry to the State Attorney General's Office, protected Avishai Raviv from prosecution, despite his proven close ties to Amir.
+ Strassmeir established contacts between Elohim City and extremist
Arab groups ultimately connected to Iraq.

- Raviv was widely reported to have established ties between Eyal and
extremist Arab organizations such as Hamas.
+ Hoffman concludes that McVeigh was "an FBI informer" on what he
thought was an assignment in Oklahoma City. That would explain why he
surrendered so peacefully to a lone policeman on a deserted stretch of
highway shortly after murdering 169 people in the blast.

- I have concluded that Amir was utilized by the Shabak and he may have thought he was protected. His first words after being apprehended for shooting Rabin were, "Why are you handcuffing me? I did my job, now you do yours."
+ Numerous witnesses saw FBI bomb squad members casing the Murrah
building before the explosion and the same bomb squad arrived within
minutes of the bombing, well before the arrival of the police or fire
department. Hoffman makes a strong argument that the Oklahoma City bombing was a sting operation gone awry. McVeigh's partner, now known as John Doe Number Two, was an FBI operative whose task was to disengage the truck bomb. The bomb squad was in place along with numerous federal officers to catch McVeigh "in the act" of setting the huge bomb. As far as these officers knew, the bomb was not supposed to go off.

- Avishai Raviv was also at the rally where Rabin was shot and is widely thought to have supplied Amir with a gun he thought was loaded with blanks. After Amir shot at Rabin, his bodyguards, instead of killing the shooter on the spot, ignored him and shouted that his bullets were blank. As far as most of the Shabak officers were informed, Amir was going to shoot blank bullets and be caught in the act of attempting to murder the prime minister. As far as they knew, Rabin was not going to be shot with real bullets.
+ The original plan was for McVeigh, the patsy, to be arrested, his ties to Elohim City exposed, thus justifying a nationwide crackdown on the growing militia movement.

- The original plan was for Amir, the patsy, to be arrested, his ties to Eyal exposed, thus justifying a nationwide crackdown on the growing
anti-peace process movement.
+ But powerful figures apprised of the operation, decided to change it. McVeigh's fertilizer contraption would explode in tandem with far more effective bombs planted within the building.

- But the Shabak agents on the spot did not realize that the staged
murder of Rabin had been altered by highly influential figures within the
Israeli political establishment. Amir would shoot his blanks but real
bullets would be awaiting Rabin in his limousine.
+ The FBI and the government were presented with a fait accompli and
were forced to cover up the murders in Oklahoma City in order to hide their own roles in a very illegal sting operation.

* The Shabak and government were forced to protect Rabin's real
murderers or face charges of complicity in a highly illegal sting operation.
+ The FBI intimidated witnesses and forced them to keep quiet or change their stories. Hoffman documents numerous examples of terrified witnesses no longer telling their original version of events.

* The Shabak intimidated witnesses and I spoke with the terrified people after. One witness told me, "Please leave us alone. You don't know what they did to us." The newsmagazine Zman Tel Aviv reported that all medical staff who attended Rabin had been subjected to frightening death threats.
+ However, not everyone would be intimidated and they paid for their
integrity with their lives. Police Sargent Terrance Yeakey refused to play along with the coverup and he "committed suicide." Hoffman describes his alleged last act: "Apparently Yeakey tried to cut himself in the wrists, neck and throat, then, after losing approximately two pints of blood, got out of his car ( conscientiously remembering to lock the doors ) , walking a mile-and-a-half over rough terrain, crawling under a barbed-wire fence, wading through a culvert, then laying down in a ditch to shoot himself in the head."

- Yoav Kuriel was a police officer assigned to protect Rabin. Eleven
days after the assassination, he "committed suicide" and was buried in a
midnight funeral. All traffic at the busy junction of the cemetary was
re-routed for ninety minutes. I was supplied with sensitive documents about Kuriel, including his death certificate indirectly by someone who prepared his body for burial. I was reliably informed that Kuriel was shot seven times in the chest.
+ The FBI quickly busied itself removing all files from sensitive
government offices within the Murrah Building, then, ordered the building
and all its secrets razed to the ground.

- Rabin's aide Eitan Haber rushed to the hospital and removed Rabin's
blood-soaked possessions from the premises. After phoning the American
Ambassador to inform him the prime minister had been shot, he rushed to
Rabin's Defence Ministry office and emptied the file cabinets. He later
explained that he wanted to preserve Rabin's memorabilia for the army
+ Vital evidence was withheld at McVeigh's trial and he made no attempt to defend himself. Instead he justified his actions as revenge against a tyrannical government. The government has turned its version of events into stone, forever demonizing the militia movement with responsibility for the bloodbath at Oklahoma City.

- Amir's trial was at a kangaroo court. All evidence indicating a
conspiracy was dismissed by the judges. To this day, religious Israelis,
settlers, in fact anyone who opposed the Oslo "Peace" Accords have been
demonized by the authorities with responsibility for Rabin's murder.
In my upcoming book, I present my suspicions that the order to assassinate Rabin came from America. His murder displayed all the trademarks of an American political hit. The parallels between the Oklahoma City bombing and the Rabin murder strongly suggest the possibility of a common plan, and thus, common planners.

A final parallel: Feral House's next book is called "Who Murdered Yitzhak
Rabin?" Hoffman and I share more than a publisher. Independent of each
other, we arrived at eerily similar conclusions about the crimes we

Barry Chamish is an Israeli journalist.

(Sat May 09 1998 07:58 - ID#26793)
I think that you will enjoy looking at the 100 year Dow/Gold Ratio chart. It does show that there has been growth throughout the entire period. I will be pleased to mail a copy to your postal address. I do not have a way to e.mail it to you.

(Sat May 09 1998 08:26 - ID#57232)
Morning Donald!
Did you see the post by Leland ( I think it was ) about Japanese debt? Apparently we all need to read the May 18 Business Week, because there is an article about the magnitude of Japanese debt. The essence is as follows:

1 ) Private japanese pension plans totaling $600billion may be underfunded by as much as 40%, and amounts overstated by as much as $250 billion to conceal about $250 billion in paper losses.

2 ) Non-performing bank loans are about $770 billion, at least more than $120 billion over official estimates. The report implies that problem loans may be closer to $1 trillion.

Another statement sounds fishy to me -- 'Japans Debt Trap' may be as much as $11 trillion, as much as 250 percent of gross domestic product. I 'm wondering on this last one if a decimal point go misplaced.

Here's a repost of yesterday's bombshell from Leland:

Mr. Mick
(Sat May 09 1998 08:29 - ID#345321)
What is this guy SMOKING???????....
Saturday May 9, 6:20 am Eastern Time

Rubin sees solid U.S. growth, low inflation

LONDON, May 9 ( Reuters ) - U.S. Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin said on Saturday a drop in
U.S. unemployment to a 28-year low showed the world's biggest economy was growing solidly
without inflationary dangers on the horizon.

``My instinct is we're on a solid growth, low inflation path,'' Rubin told reporters on the sidelines of a
meeting of finance ministers from the Group of Seven leading industrial nations. ``I have not run into
people who feel inflation in the economy.''

Figures out on Friday showed the U.S. unemployment rate tumbled to 4.3 percent in April, down
from 4.7 percent in March, its lowest level since February 1970 when only 4.2 percent of the
workforce was out of work.

Workers continued to clock healthy pay gains, as average hourly earnings grew 4.4 percent
year-on-year, the biggest gain since a matching 12-month rise in November 1983.

In a statement issued earlier on Saturday, the G7 warned that care was needed to keep the buoyant
U.S. economy on an even keel. ``We...noted that the United States economy required vigilance to
stay on a sustainable path,'' they said.

The G7 comprises the United States, Japan, Germany, Britain, France, Italy and Canada. The
finance ministers met to prepare for a summit of leaders from the Group of Eight -- the G7 plus
Russia -- in Birmingham, England next weekend.

(Sat May 09 1998 08:33 - ID#57232)
Expired already?
Donald: That's odd -- that bombshell about Japanese debt has expired already! Isn't that rather quick for Yahoo? I saw it last night and copied the report, so I know what was said. I bet someone pulled it. Still worth looking into Reuters ( New York, May 7 ) for the original, or the May 18 Business Week. My educated guess is that the May 18 Business Week will not have the article in question.

So -- is news being suppressed? Or was it incorrect? Hmmmmmmmmmmm, as some of our fellow Kitcoites would say.

News like that would empty the Japanese equities markets. Suppressing news like that is likely not to work for any length of time, if it is true.

(Sat May 09 1998 08:35 - ID#57232)
Oops! Try this
Donald: Trying again.

(Sat May 09 1998 08:36 - ID#26793)
Hi JTF. Yes, I saw that and to add to the case here is a quote from Barron's; "Downward earnings revisions from Japan almost drove the Nikkei through the psychologically important 15,000 threshold, where it was rumored to have been propped up by government-controlled pension trading."

(Sat May 09 1998 08:39 - ID#57232)
Business Week Website -- chores beckon -- Real boss has me by the ears
All: This may be worth looking at

(Sat May 09 1998 08:42 - ID#57232)
Thanks -- got to go
Donald: Perhaps the news has already been discounted. Probably old news marketwise by the time it gets to Business Week. I sincerely hope so, for our sakes. I guess it all depends on whether more disclosures surface.

Mr. Mick
(Sat May 09 1998 08:44 - ID#345321)
Andrew Smither's latest article.............
Shoring up the yen will cause worldwide
Monday 6 April 1998

Japan's ruling party has announced a budget stimulus of more than 3% of GDP, yet this apparently
massive package has been greeted by a falling stock market. The response is rational. The economy
is in bad shape and the stock market expects the real stimulus to be much less than the headline

An Upper House election is due mid-year, so politicians are happy to announce juicy construction
contracts to buy votes, but the impact on the economy will be limited.

Japan has a slow growing economy but invests like a raging tiger. At the moment, Japanese
companies invest about twice as much as those in other mature economies and, with its ageing
population, Japan is unlikely to grow any faster than the others.

These investments cannot therefore produce a satisfactory return. In the past few years, Japanese
companies seem to have been investing from habit rather than conviction and although borrowing
money is dirt cheap, it still has to be repaid. Banks are increasingly unwilling to lend for pointless

Companies also have excess stocks of unsold goods and are cutting back on output. The result is
that unemployment rose last month to its highest-ever level. As unemployment rises, consumers have
less money to spend and as they worry about their jobs, they wish to save as much as they can.

Japan's ageing population needs to save for retirement and the money cannot be invested at home,
as the static population inevitably means slow growth. Trying to avoid the issue by extra spending on
unwanted roads suits the politicians, but it provides no long-term solution. Japan's national debt is,
by a long way, the worst among G5 countries and it is already running an excessive budget deficit.

In previous recessions Japan has always exported its way out of trouble and this is likely to be true
of the next recovery as well. The world needs to accustom itself to the idea that Japan's current
account surplus, which is already 3.2% of GDP, needs to be much bigger.

This is particularly hard for the Americans, who tend to see trade issues in moral rather than realistic
terms. The reality is that the US has a trade deficit because Americans don't save and Japan has a
surplus because the Japanese do.

The propaganda is that the Japanese cheat. Since, in matters of trade, everybody cheats, including
the Americans, this is both true and beside the point.

As Japan needs its trade balance to rise, it needs to become more competitive with the rest of the
world. This can happen through a fall in Japanese wages and other costs, or through a fall in the yen.
Either way, the trade balance will have to expand.

Both the American and Japanese governments seem, however, to have missed the point and are
trying to prevent the yen falling. This is unwise. Without a weak yen, Japanese costs and prices will
have to fall and this will do even more damage to the Japanese and world economies.

(Sat May 09 1998 08:49 - ID#26793)
Six Credit Unions shut in Japan; more closings expected.

(Sat May 09 1998 08:50 - ID#341189)
Indonesia: debt negotiations, violence, sell dollars to them for 5000 rupiah with the forex at 9000?

(Sat May 09 1998 08:55 - ID#26793)
Appears to be a run on Japanese banks. This is a "must read" story!

Mr. Mick
(Sat May 09 1998 08:56 - ID#345321)
Carl, what is the US$/ruppiah exhange rate now? I remember when
it was 2700 ruppiahs to the dollar.

(Sat May 09 1998 08:57 - ID#254112)
@weiser: Your Question about a Y2K Quick Fix
The correction program you are talking about is probably a fix for a PC or a certain type of PC and it's operating system.

For sure such a fix doesn't apply to IBM main frame applications and other types of application programs. Application programs which are individually developed and are date sensitive must be tested individually under the conditions of a system date, which is set forward to December 1999 and January 2000. Only when you test how the application behaves under the condition of a manipulated system date can you be sure how the application behaves when the new millennium hits.

This means, in order to test your application, you must have a seperate computer environment on which you can manipulate the system date. That makes these tests very expensive. Especially, if you have interconnected computersystems. Then you need to build test environments with different computers and different systems working independent from your ongoing production. And to test means in this case that you need to manipulate your system dates simultaniously in all computers and systems which are interconnected. This is in many areas impossible. Therefore, the rest risk remains extremely high, even if you test system by system and computer by computer in a "stand alone" way. You still don't know how it behaves in the integrated real world environment.

This is the reason why the telephone networks cannot be tested.

I have little hope that the traditional telephone systems will work. That's why I'm waiting to see what Iridium ( Motorola ) with their low orbit satellite system will be able to guarantee. The more they are integrated into existing, traditional phone systems, the less they will be able to guarantee anything. But they should be able to guarantee a call from their own user to another one. So should Global Star, which comes up in January 1999. Let's see how these tow worldwide operating companies will market their services. If they are smart they will offer a Y@K compliant phone solution and beat the dinosaurs.

Alberich the Dwarf

Mr. Mick
(Sat May 09 1998 09:03 - ID#345321)
Donald - just read your "must read" article..........
WOW! Japan is in deeeeep shh*****ttttt!!!!!

(Sat May 09 1998 09:06 - ID#341189)
Mr. Mick
about 9500 to the dollar, Down from a peak of 14500 in Jan. However, it has been rising again recently, ( I suspect on its way up to ??,I don't have infinity on my keyboard )

(Sat May 09 1998 09:11 - ID#410114)
de regulation

I think that the recent opening of Japan's financial market to the west is causing/allowing the Japanese to get better returns on and of their money by investing in non Japanese financial intruments

Mr. Mick
(Sat May 09 1998 09:11 - ID#345321)
Carl - it can't be long before the Asia thing hits America hard
I have been watching Indonesia for about 2 years, and told my family about the problems over there. Of course, I was labeled "chicken little", etc. But I saw what was coming.
Can America be far behind? We're all tied together in this financial system.

(Sat May 09 1998 09:14 - ID#432157)
Japan-Bank Runs
Comments on Gold would be appreciated .

Thoughts ????

(Sat May 09 1998 09:15 - ID#36965)
US Markets
I read an interesting article this morning discussing if the US market is about ready to flame out. I fear that we are on the cutting edge of a major and sustained correction. Because we are so "sophisticated" in the county we might be able to orchestate a slow burn rather than a flameout but I think the die is cast for paper. It will be nice to have something yellow to hold when paper cuts are causing financial bleeding.

Mr. Mick
(Sat May 09 1998 09:17 - ID#345321)
geoffs, the Japanese only have two choices...........
foreign banks or precious metals.

(Sat May 09 1998 09:17 - ID#31868)
sharefin - good grief, well, if nothing else your story concerning your visit to the
Y2K meeting confirms what many here worry about. Denial. It seems that a minimum safety net will be one of 6 months.

Thanks for the input.

(Sat May 09 1998 09:18 - ID#341189)
Mr Mick
Donald has warning about this for a long, long time. We seem to be well into the second leg of an unfolding disaster. I don't think this will be just financial and economic. Each of these countries has it's own politics and is perhaps explosive in different ways. Very hard to predict, at least for me.

(Sat May 09 1998 09:21 - ID#341189)
This morning looks like it will be interesting here - isn't it always (;-)?
Lawn mowing awaits. BBL

Mr. Mick
(Sat May 09 1998 09:21 - ID#345321)
Tolerant1 - good morning, how's your head? :-)............
are you awake yet? hahaha

(Sat May 09 1998 09:48 - ID#28594)
SWP1--the long URL problem at Europa dB...

The urls on retrieved documents are routinely ( if one is working
from the search engine ) five or six or more lines long...
The url to which you referred was eight...cut that puppy up
and ...? This is that url, sans http you think anyone would
put it back together to view the article? Best not to post? or what?

(Sat May 09 1998 09:56 - ID#344308)

it appears indeed the world has been --set-up-- so to speak,
for what can best be described by j adams in the following
articles of the grand super-cycle......we have arrived at
its' end....some have known this with-out the minutae....

chaos and flux...this is the opposite reaction to the
'best of times'---styx. these have been the best of times tam bien!!!
research our short history here in norte america...we are due one hell
of an extended period of chaotic events which will probably spiral
out of control, due to the un-natual manipulation of natural cyclical

'for every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction' isaac newton

consider again the last 7 years of world-wide prosperity....
consider an absolute......sir isaacs' postulation above.
consider you and yours....this event will take no prisoners, and offer
no second chance for positioning...the time is at hand.

read on......and answer the i prepared? remember, chaos
and flux are un-predictable, and is precious and
fleeting, and taken in an instant; as are the material possessions of man.

gen georgie patton said it best...'the best defense is a
strong offense' gold, silver, water, storable food-stuffs, guns and ammo.

be the ant, the grass-hoppers and crickets will be stacked as the cord-wooded peopleo that they are.......reminds me a song...
'black friday' by the dan...steely dan..

nostradamus predicts comet to hit the earth next week....better strap-on
your kevlar...


(Sat May 09 1998 09:56 - ID#31868)
Mr. Mick - awake yes, can't find my head...Oh well, I have gotten through many
a day without it. Now, do gold and silver make a come back next week or do we have a passive week to look forward to. The new Cuervo Central Shaman keeps muttering something but as of yet we cannot tell what language he is speaking. In fact we are not sure if it is a language.

Hmmmmmmmmmmmm, perhaps the all you can drink tequila clause should be adjusted in our Shaman contracts. Nah, life would be no fun.

(Sat May 09 1998 10:01 - ID#344308)

where you ask?

(Sat May 09 1998 10:01 - ID#287280)
SWP1--OOps! Sorry!

Thought without the http it would print the paragraph that is the url
( and yes, it is a paragraph long ) ...Ill not post the urls to Europa
documents, if it is really an irritant to everyone. Unless someone requests to see the document. Fair enough? {:- ) )

(Sat May 09 1998 10:03 - ID#31868)
cherokee - while I agree with you I think there is still a window of opportunity to
prepare. There is still too much cash on the table. The criminals need more time to allocate their US$ into other items and vehicles so as not to get trashed. In addition I would greatly appreciate any word on where Alan Greenspan is putting his $5,000,000 - if anyone knows about timing it will be him.

Next week should be interesting as Rubin and Greenspan are on different sides of the banking bill. Would be interesting if one of them resigned over the decision.

(Sat May 09 1998 10:03 - ID#344308)

in honor of those who 'seek'.....facts.

(Sat May 09 1998 10:16 - ID#344308)!!!!!!

from the past....the present...and our future.

'there is a tide in the affairs of men,
which, taken at the flood, leads to fortune;
omitted, all the voyage of their life is bound in the shallows
and in miseries.
on such a full sea we are now afloat,
and we must take the current when it serves, or forever lose our ventures.'
....................william shakespeare.

(Sat May 09 1998 10:36 - ID#153102)
The "Cold War" has concluded.

The goal of those who struggle to dominate the territory of the imagination, the imagined territory of a future world, is mind control. All of the apparatus of mind control supports paper. First the physical barriers demarking the official battle line of the war came down. Do you remember how unbelieving people were that The Wall had actually been breached ? It will be just so with the walls in the mind.

Everyone will go through the same psychological steps, seeking safety for the property in which they have stored life until they arrive at gold. Has not each goldbug already made the mental and emotional journey ?

The Japanese depositor is on the first step of the journey.

Wars always end in depressions. You cannot waste and waste without a cost, without an eventual accounting.

(Sat May 09 1998 10:36 - ID#413109)
Barry Chamish article
ALBERICH- please email me, re above, thanks for including his email.

(Sat May 09 1998 10:37 - ID#225283)

Loved the W.S.

Which work
is it from?

(Sat May 09 1998 10:41 - ID#288369)
Dedicated to Mr. H.L. Hunt (father of the Hunt boys).."Yea, But I never made any money on chickens"

written by Ronald David James, Pat Guthrie Payne and Dave L. Copenhaver
copyright 1996, davenron publishing, BMI, all rights reserved










( the end )

tee hee.........


written by Ronald David James, Pat Guthrie Payne and Dave L. Copenhaver
copyright 1996, davenron publishing, BMI, all rights reserved










( the end )

tee hee.........

(Sat May 09 1998 10:45 - ID#316193)
Donald, Did You See Colin's "Thanks"?

(Sat May 09 1998 10:50 - ID#26793)
Conditions that led to 1994 Mexican devaluation begin to re-appear.

(Sat May 09 1998 10:54 - ID#26793)
@Leland, Colin
That was nice. Working together like this no one will be able to sneak up on us!

(Sat May 09 1998 10:58 - ID#153102)
Recommendations for the best value in short wave transceivers would be appreciated.

(Sat May 09 1998 11:01 - ID#369217)
Exploration Mirandor (MIQ on Montreal Stock Exchange)
Last news release by MIQ reviewed previous 1997 drill results on its Railroad Property in the Carlin Trend in Nevada. Some holes hit 0.63oz/t gold as high as 15% copper at surface of the "third window" in the Carlin Trend. No wonder Kinross Gold Corporation entered into a $17 million CDN ( $12 million US ) joint venture with MIQ for just 60% of the Railroad Property. This JV equates to $0.85 CDN/MIQ share from Kinross Gold for drilling just one property of MIQ which sells for only $0.35 CDN. In addition, rumors at last weeks mining meeting in Montreal circulated that MIQ will soon acquire a large prospective gold property in the Battle Mountain Trend in Nevada. Why is MIQ still a penny stock?

Gianni Dioro__A
(Sat May 09 1998 11:11 - ID#384350)
Alberich, OKC
There are some who compare it to the intentional burning down of the Reichstag in Nazi Germany, after which tough police state laws were introduced.

(Sat May 09 1998 11:22 - ID#254269)
Good Morning all; just thought I would see what is going on in the world.
Donald, has everyone been behaving themselves while I've been gone ?

(Sat May 09 1998 11:25 - ID#369217)
"Another" query
Having read your interesting insights listed on Kitco from September to January, I have some questions. If the low gold for low oil agreement cannot be maintained, why would the US dollar remain strong or increase value against other currencies? What would be the result on real estate? Resumption of high-priced oil would cripple the US economy so why would not the US dollar fall? In an international crisis, would the Swiss also confiscate gold from its citizens? How can a average US citizen protect oneself against such a meltdown? If excessive gold forward selling has depleted gold inventories, what percentage of gold backing will the Europeans use for the Euro?

silver plate
(Sat May 09 1998 11:43 - ID#289466)
mozel - sw transceivers
That is a loaded question like asking what is the best value in autos. There are so MANY makes and varieties. Suggest you obtain a copy of QST the official journal of the ARRL ( american radio relay league ) at the closest electronic store or large magazine rack.

(Sat May 09 1998 11:46 - ID#153102)
Will do. Thanks for the post.

(Sat May 09 1998 11:57 - ID#288155)
USD not the only kid on the commodity block...
FT Commodities Prices--
Precious Metals: The London morning fix/afternoon fix are giving in
USD, pound and Swissie

Cocoa trades on three exchanges in three different currencies: LIFFE in pounds; CSCE in USD; ICCO in SDRs

Wheat trades on two exchanges in two currencies: LIFFE in pounds;

Two US banks are supposedly migrating from LIFFE to Frankfort, where they--the American banks--will be trading in Euro...

(Sat May 09 1998 12:04 - ID#255217)
@ silver plate
If you are a ham opr. ( even if you are not ) do you have an aux. pwr. generator for potential pwr. failures? I am considering one for "survival" purposes and just began looking. Honda seems to make good ones. Gotta have light to count my gold when Y2K works its magic.

(Sat May 09 1998 12:10 - ID#20135)
Date: Sat May 09 1998 08:55
Donald ( Appears to be a run on Japanese banks. This is a "must read" story! ) ID#26793:

Date: Sat May 09 1998 09:17
Mr. Mick ( geoffs, the Japanese only have two choices........... ) ID#345321:
foreign banks or precious metals.

Thanks Donald, another great find. This says it all...

"SHE was slender, middle aged and impeccably turned out in a Fendi suit and matching shoulder bag. She had with her a dark blue briefcase full of
freshly printed 10,000 yen notes.

As I watched she fed the entire contents of the case, bundle by crisp bundle, into the ATM machine outside Tokyo's Otemachi business district. After each press of the deposit button, there was a furious whirr and the machine would open and ask for more.

This went on for some 20 minutes. She may have paid in $2 million dollars, or even $5 million that afternoon. It is hard to count a briefcase full of money while standing metres away in a queue of impatient Japanese. "

She has been trained to run from one fiat currency to another. She cares only for keeping what she has, she is looking for a store for her value, she, unfortunately is unaware of gold. She would be sleeping easy with 16,686 ounces of comex gold under her bed. NO worries about which currecny to run to or which banks are closing.

Gold is becoming even more precious.


We are in basic agreement, I believe.

Date: Sat May 09 1998 06:44
rhody ( @A.Goose: Once upon a time in Ontario, a farmer just north of Toronto created a business called )

Rhody, I think you hit the nail on the head. You example points out just exactly why comex, lbma and the general options and dervatives marekts have been so wildly successful for the past decade or so. Inventories have dropped, just in time is in full force, and everyone trust that they will get what the paper certificate says they have the right to pruchase.

There is NO WAY that COMEX or the LBMA can make delivery on ALL the contracts that are written. AS you say, it is over as soon as two owners show up for the same ounce ( piglet ) .

Thanks John_B, I thought it was worth repeating.

Date: Sat May 09 1998 00:30
John B__A ( Some Reassuring Words that Support Gold Fundamentals ) ID#211105:
Copyright  1998 John B__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Anglogold chief says cenbanks plan no gold sales
Reuters, Friday, May 08, 1998 at 15:32
LIMA, May 8 ( Reuters ) - Anglogold ( JOH:ANGJ ) president Bobby Godsell was assured by leading European central bankers that they had no plans to sell their gold reserves in the near future, Godsell said in a news release.

"None of the main holders of gold among the European central banks is thinking of any sale of that metal in the near future, nor of selling any considerable part of their gold reserves," according to the news release at an international gold conference in Peru.

"These assurances have been given particularly by the French, German and Italian authorities, as well as those of other European countries," the statement said. ) )

Have a Great Day everyone.

silver plate
(Sat May 09 1998 12:23 - ID#289466)
I am a ham. Currently do not have aux power, but most all ham equipment operates on 12v dc. this makes it quite convenient to obtain power from any auto battery, solar panels or aux generator. Ham communication in emergencys is well known, and a good sw receiver or transceiver would be a great adjunct to any Y2K survival gear.

(Sat May 09 1998 12:27 - ID#344308)'s-headin-to-ganymeade----fo's-some-oil-of-zee-quark----


here is one of the giants i've all know him...
he is one of book-marks are full of them.. are on the mark. bulls-eye. the mind, and control there-of,
by the manipulation of our greed, avarice, fears, and gullibility......
what about the memories of the last stock/financial diaspora?
the peopleo have no long term concern for the past and the implications of it upon the future..we are riding a wave of precedence..the '29 book is being re-written for the modern man..give them
what they want $$$$, it is the lure.....the hook is about to be set...there is a #3 hook, 500# test line with a s/s leader 3' long...
there will be no escape....all caught will be used as fertilizer....

the few, controlling the many......the legacy of what we were given will
be un-available to our children.......mark my words.....the world as
we have known it is about to under-go the most radical changes in recorded history..........

the war paint is prepared......the hashishan ready for battle....ted...
light the bowl of for all........the ssm stands ready for those who have stood the test of the know who you are...we'll squirt on every-thing in sight....

cherokee...!; ) ...purveyor.of.the.seeds.of.truth....and...dotssmfatimmmf.

(Sat May 09 1998 12:28 - ID#335190)
Vatican Bank & Cargill & ADM & USofA Soybean Farmers & Judicial @ "Common Law ???"
Yes, Gold is controlled, that is a given. As is Soybean. Bre-X was difficult for shareholders, as the same difficulty existed for soybean players and growers. God's Banker's, and God's Judges, are a party to wrong doing. Will it be possible for market forces to balance the demands of supply and demand, when many SUIT'S do not, nor do they intend to play by the rules. ( LIKE WHAT RULES??? ) *** ( WELFARE FOR THE RICH - KILL THE POOR, AND WORKING POOR, IN THE NAME OF GOD AND COUNTRY )



2. To cover up such matters, and massive illicit dealings of Hillary Rodham Clinton and her business partner, Vincent W. Foster, Jr., the judge in the soybean cases is among several federal judges in Chicago, who were corrupted with bribes of some 62 million dollars; as admitted by a director of the Chicago Board of Trade.

7. Nothing has been done to remedy innocent soybean farmers who were ruined, some bankrupted by this judicial corruption.

8. Nothing is said in the monopoly press about the corruption of Cargill and ADM implicitly involved in the Chicago Board of Trade bribery of the federal judges in Chicago -- Ferruzzi was smashed, and Cargill and ADM escaped default and take-over of their companies by Ferruzzi.

Ferruzzi Finanziaria S.p.A., the agro-chemical holding firm, was run by what some called a wizard, Raul Gardini, who had married the daughter of the firm's founder, Serafino Ferruzzi. Their operation was called Central Soya Co., of Ft. Wayne, Indiana, and Ferruzzi U.S.A., Inc., with principal offices in Louisiana.

Those who understood business realized Ferruzzi was more actually owned and operated by the Vatican Bank; over the years by Vatican Bank Chief, Bishop Paul Marcinkus; and earlier by "St. Peter's Banker," Michele Sindona.

Ferruzzi's main competitors were primarily Cargill, the secretive, privately owned firm, headquartered in Minnesota, and the highly political -- some say highly corrupt -- Archer-Daniels-Midland Co., darling of the mass media.

How did this happen? That at a time of soybean shortages, with not enough to meet domestic demand and for export, soybean prices collapsed instead of going up.

-- "that Assistant U.S. Attorney William R. Hogan, Jr., was, in effect, the representative in the U.S. Attorney's office in Chicago of ( 1 ) the office of Catholic Archbishop of Chicago; ( 2 ) the Vatican Bank and Bishop Paul Marcinkus who was Vatican Bank chief up to November, 1991; ( 3 ) The Pope. Marcinkus' nephew/godson, Christian Henning, Jr., by falsely claiming to be Joseph Andreuccetti's business partner, caused Andreuccetti to be defrauded of many millions of dollars as hereinbefore stated... Yet, at a time of soybean shortage, because of this corruption, soybean prices went down when they should have gone up. The result of the corruption: thousands of soybean farmers were ruined, some bankrupted. Another result of the judicial corruption: Ferruzzi lost upwards of a billion dollars and the chief of their holding firm, Raul Cardini, who had married into the Ferruzzi family, and was considered a wizard, committed suicide, July 1993."

Conspiracy Nation -- Vol. 10 Num. 02

(Sat May 09 1998 12:31 - ID#344308)

the great depression....

any similarities?

(Sat May 09 1998 12:37 - ID#222231)
Cheokee_A, ALL-Mysterious Chart on Stock Market Enough to Scare!
I have in front of me an article dated OCTOBER 4, 1970 by Don G. Campbell, business and financial editor of the Arizona Republic
and printed in The Cleveland Plain Dealer.

"It's an acknowledged fact that if you pinch a curvaceous thing on a crowded elevator she will-one way or another-react.

Pinch her often enough, and watch her react enough, and common sense dictates that a pattern will evolve. It's the oldest theory in the world: There's a pattern in everything no matter how random it may seem on the surface and, if there is a pattern, it therefore stands to reason that there is also a predictability.

And that, of course, is the logic behind a curious chart that purports to show where that elusive stock market is going to go between now and 2008.

ALTHOUGH not unknown ( there are a few yellowing blow-ups of it on the walls of market buffs around the country ) , its origin is still a bit fuzzy. The version presented here is said to have been drawn up, anonymously, about 1909 by a prominant wall street broker, fell into the hands of a Harvard Business School Administrator and ultimately passed into the hands of Charles E. Stevens of Sun City, Arizona, from whom we inherited it.

Stevens recollection is that the chart came into his possession sometime in the mid-20s, which would rule out the possibility that the chartist used fortuious hindsight to predict antthing after the mid-20s but, admittedly, he may have fudged somewhat in pinpointing such signifacant occurrences as the panics of 1818 ( triggered by wild inflation in commodities and Western land, 1837 ( a money based inflation ) and 1857 ( which began with the failure of the New York City branch of the Ohio Life Insurance Co. ) .

There is no way, however, that he could have had insight into the events after the mid-20s, although-according to Stevens, a retired lawyer and CPA from Indianapolis, Ind.-someone ( he does'nt recall who ) borrowed the chart from him in 1934 and brought it up to date with the arrows showing quite graphically that the drafter of the chart was only a year, or less, off base in pinpointing 26 of the first 89 predictions between 1784 and 1934. In the same interval, 63 of the specific predictions were right on target.

As far as todays observer is concerned, the eerie part of the chart is in the accuracy with which the long dead author "called" the great depression of 1929 and the events between 1934 and today ( NOTE: 1970 ) . A few picky observers have pointed out that the chartist was, technically, wrong in pinpinting 1930 as the year of the "major panic-crash", instead of 1929.

A rereading of economic history, however, puts the chart back in proper perspective: while 1929 was, indeed, the year of the massive collapse of stock prices, it was still considered as nothing but a messy "techical correction" in the market untill 1930, when the spirited rally of that year also collapsed and left no doubts in anyones mind that a major bear market was underway.

Since there were more fortunes lost in the 2nd crash of the market, in 1930, than in the more dramatic 1929 debacle, the chartist can be said to have hit it right on the head in calling 1930 as the real moment of truth.

Although one can get fussy, too, and say that the chartist was, perhaps ( and perhaps, not ) as much as a year off in his more recent predictions, he has been close enough to cause little uneasiness: In calling for high prices in 1946 and 1947, a major drop in 1948, the beginning of a big bull market that suffered its 1st setback in 1952, the big upsurge of 1956, and the recession of 1958.

The brief, but traumatic collapse of 1962 and then subsequently, the big peak of the bull market in 1965, is equally evident. At this point, however, he was a year off in putting the big slide of 1966 a year later, in 1967, and ignored the dramatic recovery of 1968.

But the eerie part, at the moment ( Oct 4, 1970 ) is the big bold "K" ( Extreme low stock prices-depression-despair-strikes-unemployment ) which sticks out like a sore thumb on 1970.

Does this mean that 1970 is the bottom and the decline is over, or do we still have a year or so to go? High stock prices don't appear on the chart untill 1974. It's those blank spaces between 1970 and 1974 that are worrisome.

An exercise in shrewd guesswork, or not, the chart is a classical example of the "cycle" theory in predicting stock market bekaviour. This one happens to be based on cycles of 18 1/2 years with a year on each end being permitted as a margin of error.

Why 18 1/2 years should have any significance is anyones guess. Why should'nt it though? Major weather changes occur every 11 1/2 years-no one knows why. Increases in the Elephant population takes place every 62 years and in the mouse population every 4 years-no one knows why.

So is it really inconceivable, then, that human optomism and pessimism- the prime determinants of the markets direction-also move in a definate cycle? LIKE EVERY 18 1/2 YEARS?"


The table below is incomplete as I am showing predictions from 1970 forward, whereas table in article starts with 1784. ( Too lengthy to plot )

1970 A-Extreme low stock prices-strikes-depression-despair- Beginning of new generation of 18 1/2 yrs. ( About 4 yrs of rising stock prices-About 4 yrs of improving business. Markets bare of goods-Young men becoming prominant
1974 B-High stock prices.
1976 C Panic
1977 D Low stock prices
1980 E high stock prices.
1981 F Panic.
1982 G Low stock prices.
1984 H Very high stock prices-most prosperous yr. waste, over speculation, extravagance, no more poverty ever! Most paper money in circulation, everyone rich, stocks high and rising.
1985 J Major panic, crash-about 4 yrs falling stock prices, business stagnation.
1989 A- Extreme low stock prices-beginning of new business generation of 18 1/2 yrs.
1993 B - High stock prices.
1995 C - Panic.
1996 D - Low stock prices.
1998 E - High stock prices.
1999 F - Panic.
2001 G - Low stock prices.
2002 H - Very high stock prices-most prosperous yr.-waste-overspeculation-extravagance-no more poverty ever-most paper money in circulation-everybody rich-stocks high and rising.
2004 J - Major panic-crash-business stagnation-about 4 yrs falling stock prices.


(Sat May 09 1998 12:37 - ID#431263)
You're worse than Webb Hubbel! Why don't you read the WHOLE ARTICLE YOU JUST POSTED? VENGOLD has now INCREASED its ownership in LIHIR to 12.4% and owns an option, if refused, to purchase another 0.4% ownership which would bring its ownership of LIHIR to 12.8%! In addition to all this, VENGOLD still has $27 million US cash to fund its ongoing exploration activities in NA, SA and Indonesia AND with the increase of Lihir's gold production now INCREASED by @ 100,000 ozs./yr. to @ 775,000 ozs./yr, starting in 1999, VENGOLD now will receive @ 100,000 ozs. of gold/yr. to its bottom line EVERY YEAR FOR THE NEXT 40 YRS! All produced at a cash cost after royalties of $198/oz all of which is hedged for 1998 at $350/oz. Future production after 1998 REMAINS UNHEDGED! VENGOLD IS ON THE CUSP OF RAPIDLY GROWING ITS WAY INTO A TOP-TIER PRODUCER AND WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO GROW! 2 cents loss per share? What a red herring! LOFLOL with PDG who just purchased a 16.5% stake in VENGOLD for $41.6 million US!

(Sat May 09 1998 12:41 - ID#288369)
@cherOkee..........listening to the faint rumble..........?is it.?........
peopleo stampeding? or a brakeless train? Hark! 'tis a must to fly to the High Ground with the Great Haste.....ronnie v z........donnie fagen/walt becker.......carlos......are already there and have been waiting for you and me. c, plug it in and play now.

(Sat May 09 1998 12:49 - ID#255217)
@ silver plate
Thanks for the post. Am also a ham, but haven't operated in years. License is still current and have given thought to setting up again, especially with unsettled economic and social conditions lurking in the future. With power outtages a potential due to social turmoil, lights, refrigerators, computers, well pumps and a host of other devices would be rendered usless, especially if the power were off for more than a day or two. And you could only count your gold in the daytime!

(Sat May 09 1998 12:51 - ID#288369)
@Donald.....ray lynch.........
I read his stuff on the web, that's all I know about him/his music at this time...thanks for the tip ;^ ) ~

(Sat May 09 1998 12:57 - ID#215208)
As usual when gold approachs critical support areas, Kitco-ites are sitting and the edge of their chairs, bitting their nails. Including me. I see John Disney, confident in his convictions, is sitting squarely atop the fence, 50% in cash. That's roughly where I am too. Unfortunately the channels charts don't do much to clear up the crystal ball.

Gold - Edged below the bottom of the original channel I had drawn ( shown in solid lines ) , but must drop to around 293 to hit the bottom of the dotted line channel. This is the channel I favor at the moment. Yes, I could fudge the lines of the original channel a bit, but I don't think that's what's going on at the moment. The question is, if gold hits 293, will it stop there? Perhaps the other metals will tell us something.

Silver - You may recall, I have never been too confident in the silver channel I was using, so I have no problem adjusting this channel to accomodate the recent low. However, the big overwhelming concern is the huge pennant pattern that must break soon. APH now seems very confident that silver will see 5.50, if not 5.00. I think Cyclist also is predicting something like this. D.A. seems confident that the positive fundamentals will soon take effect. ( Unless he has changes his mind this morning, since I haven't caught up on my reading ) . I tend to favor the downside, which of course has negative implications for gold.

Platinum - I think something is happening here. Platinum has barely, but clearly, broken through the bottom of my channel. This channel has held for a long time and has been very good at predicting reverses, especially when platinum hits the channel top. I could drop the channel bottom to accomodate the recent low. In fact, this would then accomodate the spike to last years low in early December, which I had chosen to ignore. But again, I don't think this is what is happening. I see two possibilities. One is shown in dotted lines. This I consider a worst case. It would lead to a near term low in platinum of 275-280. Another less radical solution would be if platinum is now forming a new channel bottom defined by connecting the recent lows to the lows in March. This is also a downward-trending channel, but not near as steep. Neither of these possibilities are consistent with RJ's very strong conviction that platinum is headed for the moon in the near future. This does worry me. So I guess I will wimp out and not take a big position either way in PL until things clear up.

Palladium - Is finally, and rapidly correcting. It still has a long way to go to even hit the long term upward trend line. It is interesting that PL started following PA down, but it almost totally ignored the last very steep drop in PA. However, PA futures also ignored this $40 drop in the spot price, which is really weird. This picture should start to clear up next week.

So, in conclusion, in paraphrasing one of my early stock brokers, I am very certain that if the metals don't go up next week, they will go down. Unless they remain unchanged. :- )

If anyone's crystal ball is clearer than mine, let's hear it.

The Hermit
(Sat May 09 1998 13:10 - ID#369247)
@ mozel - your 02:57
A very "delicious" post! Nothing gets by you. Thank you so much.

(Sat May 09 1998 13:13 - ID#341189)
US Gov. openly concerned about social unrest in Indonesia

(Sat May 09 1998 13:14 - ID#288369)
@Would you like malaise on your burger, sir? "huh? whatever, I don't care"
"Gold is not for, it's just for the future ruling class.' bennet serfdom.

(Sat May 09 1998 13:21 - ID#26793)
I have been behaving myself; trouble is, I didn't want to.

(Sat May 09 1998 13:29 - ID#411149)
Thanks to everone that responded to my plea for HELP yesterday.
Right after that message I had a power outage and have been off
line until now. The outage was caused by a large bird that got
between the high voltage positive and negative and BLEWY. Exactly
one year ago the same thing happened but that time the animal was
a squirl with an unusually long tail. Cost me about $200 bucks each
time nothin compared to their loss of life.

The other evening, right at dusk, after my 5K run I was walkin to cool
down and in the road ditch I spotted this white thing, looked like
a kitten but after getting closer it was a BEAUTIFUL WHITE skunk.
A huge white tail with a black stripe down it's back. Ususual to me!

Happy Saturday!

Tally Ho

(Sat May 09 1998 13:30 - ID#410215)
..... Dee Jaaaaaaaaaay .....

DJ -

Makin' Channels

The Channel maester

El- Channelreeno

( Sorry, I saw an old episode of SNL with the "Copy Guy" in it. It was a stupid skit, but it cracked me up anyway. I guess I should be embarrassed, but I have a very thick skin ) .

Now. For proper decorum:

Mr. DJ

The reason palladium and platinum are moving so strangely, relative to each other, is that platinum is acting as a surrogate for palladium. There is still another run left in this palladium play but it will do so without me. I believe platinum is the next BIG mover. Near term and long term platinum looks like it will go back to its traditional trading range of $450 - $600 for the next couple years.


Gianni Dioro__A
(Sat May 09 1998 13:35 - ID#384350)
ESSIAC, Herbal Remedy
From Nexus Magazine special supplement #2 Dec97-Jan98

Ren Caisse was a nurse living in Canada, who, for a period of almost 60 years, treated hundreds of people with an herbal remedy she called "Essiac".

She discovered this remedy through a patient in the hospital where she worked, who had been cured of cancer. The patient had used an herbal remedy given her by an herbalist from the Ojibwa tribe.

Ren left the hospital in 1922 at age 33, and went to Bracebridge, Ontario, Canada where she began adminstering Essiac to all who came to her. The majority of whom she treated came on referral with letters from their physicians certifying they had incurable or terminal forms of cancer and that they had been given up on by the medical profession as untreatable.

Ren began gathering the plants and preparing the herbal remedy herself in her own kitchen, in a building lent her for her patients. She administered Essiac both orally and by injection. In cases where there was severe damage to life-support organs, her patients died--but they lived far longer than the medical profession had predicted, and, significantly they lived free of pain. Still others, listed as hopeless and terminal but without severe damage to life-support organs, were cured and lived 35 to 45 years ( many are still living ) .

So startling was the effectiveness of this simple herbal remedy, it could not be ignored, and the Canadian Ministry of Health and Welfare and the Parliament became involved. Friends, former patients, and grateful families petitioned Canadian officialdom for Ren Caisse's right to administer the remedy to anyone who asked for it without the threat of interference from authorities. Fifty-five thousand signatures were collected on the petition. In 1938, Essiac came within three votes of being legalised by the Ontario government as a remedy for terminal cancer patients.

Further Reading:

Essiac For Cancer, InfoPack, 58 pages
Nexus UK office
tel: +44 1342 322854

Or ask your local health food store. Flor-Essence is a commercial version.

(Sat May 09 1998 13:44 - ID#290118)
READ THIS BOOK! In an even-handed manner the author explains how farm folks ( and rural folk in general ) have been abused by government, banks and corporations. These conservative, peaceful, religious people have been pushed into a corner and feel they have no recourse but suicide or violence.
He damns the patriots for profit and other opportunist right wing groups for taking advantage of these victims - likes flies & maggots on rotting meat. Both these groups and the government are to blame. Rural folk are caught in the middle and getting angrier by the day. The book's subtitle is "Why Oklahoma City is Only the Beginning". The hardback book's cover has bullet-holes in it!
For those of us who don't understand what is happening this book is a darn good explanation as to why. He interviews suicide hot line workers trying to help farm families. He interviews the most radical of the gun-toting right wingers from Republic of Texas to various militia groups and religious extremists. Many farmers are in debt up to their strangled necks and literally owe everything to a few multi-armed corporations. He spells out how a farmer is forced to deal with one large integrated multinational corporation that sells him seed, farm equipment, owns the bank, the grain elevator, the shippers, the packing houses, - the whole nine yards! Unlike other business owners - when these farmers are forced off their land their roots are torn from generations of heritage. Their land is part and parcel of their identity. Their anger and pain makes for a natural combination of common farm supplies: diesel fuel and fertilizer.

(Sat May 09 1998 13:54 - ID#410215)
..... Ray .....

This white skunk is a wonderful omen.

This portends an imminent rise in gold

Or an imminent fall

Don't know really

I better go read up on skunks

And what vaticinate mysteries

Are brought forth by this anomaly

One question though

Which end was pointed at you?

This will help in my determination

Whether your sighting

Bodes glee or sorrow


(Sat May 09 1998 13:54 - ID#31868)
Regarding the Indonesia post : Secretary of State Madeleine Albright
is an ignorant, fatuous idiot. What the Coward Erect's Administration is doing to foreign duties will haunt these United States well into the next century.

(Sat May 09 1998 13:55 - ID#153102)
@vaporware @voting with your feet
Someone told me of a purportedly documentary film they saw about the development of the Bradley Fighting Vehicle. To make a long story short, billions were poured into a fatally flawed machine design which was concealed by representations and assurances from vain and venal authority. Only the persistence of one man in pushing for a live fire test prevented a catastrophe for the troops that would ride to battle in this thing. The hero saved the System, but was rewarded for his integrity by being ejected by it.

This story is yet another instance of a pattern of hierarchical bureaucracies ejecting the independent honest thinker no matter how practical his suggestions may be. The same thing happened to Gen Billie Mitchell when he insisted on testing aerial bombing on real ships. In a corporation in which projects are not a matter of life and death and no real public trust and duty is involved, the incentive to shut up, consume, and die as 6Pak puts it, is even stronger. Or, looked at from the other direction, the disincentive to personal integrity is even greater. In the case of government, the resources at hand may be so vast that Propaganda can dominate Fundamentals indefinitely. In such a setting, the important thing is that your Propaganda prevail. And nothing is more key to that than the maintenance of Image. Nothing is more fatal to Image than a failed test. So, the hazard of an objective test is avoided unless compelled by events or by higher authority.

The equally important point about this story is that it is of a type that has achieved urban legend status. It teaches that the person of integrity is merely a fool who saves the ungrateful System at the expense of his own well-being. Whether it is true to life or not, it is widely accepted as being true.

This is the context in which I assess the probability that government and corporations will have anything ready for Y2K except Vaporware.

It takes longer to vote with your feet than you think it will.

(Sat May 09 1998 14:02 - ID#31868)
It takes a lot less time to vote with your feet than you might think or know my friend.

(Sat May 09 1998 14:03 - ID#410215)
..... Mozel .....

This may simply be a function of too much vested in the damn thing. The "We have to save our phony bologna jobs" ( stolen from "Blazing Saddles" ) mentality is usually paid for in innocent blood. Many of those trusted with our safety and security have advanced far beyond their optimum level of incompetence.


(Sat May 09 1998 14:12 - ID#410215)
..... Mozel .....

It occurs to me that the written "phony bologna" looks more like "foney bal-og-na" than the "foney baloney" that is heard when spoken. Some things are better said than written. Some things are simply better left unsaid. Like this.

Uh Huh

(Sat May 09 1998 14:16 - ID#153102)
If you live in a Condo or subdivision, the message that you don't own your land can be shrugged off. You figure you can pay the tax. Practically speaking, home inspections have just begun to be implemented in a few jurisdictions. It's a distant and theoretical threat.

But, the land and the people are one where the food comes from. There, the question, "If you don't own the land you're standing on, the land your father and grandfather stood on, in just what sense of the words is it our country" goes to the heart of the question of legitimacy of government.

(Sat May 09 1998 14:18 - ID#20135)
For those that think that the palladium shortage is over and all is well...

NYMEX to Increase Margins on Palladium Futures

( NYMEX ) announced today it will raise the outright and
spread margin rates on its May and June 1998 palladium
futures contracts as of the close of business Monday, May
The outright margins will be raised: to $21,000 from
$15,000 for clearing members; to $23,100 from $16,500 for
members; and to $28,350 from $20,250 for customers.
For clearing members, the spread margin rates will be:
$19,000 for a spread involving the spot month; $18,800 for
one involving the second month; and remain at $300 for back-
month spreads.
Member rates will be: $20,900 for a spot-month spread;
$20,680 for a spread including the second month; and remain
at $330 for back-month spreads.
Customer rates will be $25,650 for a spot-month spread;
$25,380 for a spread which includes the second month; and
remain at $405 for back-month spreads.

(Sat May 09 1998 14:24 - ID#373403)
Our city council is condemning private property under their eminent domain powers to help developers aquire parcels. This is in direct conflict with the public use outlined in Article V of the Bill of Rights of the United States Constitution. ",;Nor shall private property be taken for public use without just compensation"

They argue that higher tax revenues generated by increased development is in the public interest. It is central planning and it is coming to a property near you. After this becomes entrenched in law, your house can be condemned to be developed into a larger tax generating house by someone else.

I wrote to the ACLU to help nip this in the bud.

(Sat May 09 1998 14:31 - ID#410215)
..... A.Goose .....

The palladium market is theoretical at this time. Paper trading truly represents nothing in this game, for there is nothing to be had. Palladium is in the most critical supply shortage ever.

We will see industry ease their reliance on palladium by making the move back to platinum. This is happening as we speak. This move will take a year and will do little to affect slowed down assembly lines waiting for palladium today.

First delivery notice on the June contract will see palladium soar.

Platinum will gain the benefit of inefficient Russian production and their gross misunderstanding of what a "customer" actually is.

This is so

(Sat May 09 1998 14:37 - ID#153102)
Economic Development by Government was the communist idea, wasn't it ?

The ACLU cannot nip anything. Do you really want to depend on a UNION to defend your individual rights ? They are just part of the Public Pretender charade of attorneys and lawyers. You may think I am harsh to say so and unappreciative, but study and learn is my reply.

(Sat May 09 1998 14:41 - ID#410215)
..... MissingLink .....

I have a friend who had his retail cellular phone store seized under eminent domain. The state offered to pay moving expenses and relocating costs, but this store was on a street that gets tens of thousands of cars passing every day. The value of visibility in incalculable in these equations. They wanted to move him off to some side street.

Now, here is the kicker:

The property was seized to make way for construction of a new theater complex ( to add to the nearly 300 screens in a 20 mile radius ) and supermarket. The state seized small businesses in favor of a bigger tax base coming out of the same property.

This is not what the Founding Fathers had in mind

It is criminal


(Sat May 09 1998 14:41 - ID#39971)
Peter Principle Revisited?
The generalized " Peter Principle ".

Note the reference to the Indos.

The question ( and answer ) man.

And now we have the Dilbert Principle.

This is on topic.Yes?I like it.Been there done that.

PS:RJ---If you don't know where gold is going,how the h*ll are

the mormons---err--morons--s'pose ta know.Huh?I say up,but not

any time REAL soon.Soon---but not REAL soon.OK ; )

Have a good weekend all.Things are a " little clearer " only.

(Sat May 09 1998 14:44 - ID#153102)
One more thing. Think this through if you will. If you don't own your land and what is built on it, if you do not have absolute, clear allodial title to it, then in what sense is your city council condemning private property ? They are not. They are merely exercising a right they have as the equitable owner.

Mr. Mick
(Sat May 09 1998 14:50 - ID#345321)
Tolerant1 - prediction for this week.............
Had to leave temporarily. Just got your message. Predictions: 1 ) DOW down, 2 ) Gold steady, silver up, plat down 3 ) tequila supply decreased :- ) !

(Sat May 09 1998 14:50 - ID#286234)
Listen to NYPD live!

(Sat May 09 1998 14:53 - ID#31868)
themissinglink - find a lawyer with sharp teeth,
attach a lien to each and every one of the members of the council, but do it to them personally, not as sitting members of the council.

(Sat May 09 1998 14:55 - ID#28594)
Asia wont affect the USA? Well according to Annex table 4 , Europe/EU dB--

Annex table 4 list the ten largest foreign affiliates in selected Asian economies, by sales, the name of the company, the home economy, and the industry.

In CHINA, the ten biggest are Japanese -- all 10.

In JAPAN, the top NINE are USA, with one Swiss presence ( Nestle ) ....
1. Coca-Cola ( Japan ) Co., Ltd , USA, Foods & beverages, 506 Mn
2. Tonen Corp., USA, Petroleum, 323Mn
3. Amway ( Japan ) Ltd., USA, Distributive trade, 316 Mn
4. Fuji Xerox Co., Ltd., USA, Electrical equipment, 308 Mn
5. American Family Life Assurance Company of Columbus, USA, Insurance, 270 Mn
6. Esso Sekiyu K.K., USA, Petroleum, 269 Mn
7. General Sekiyu K.K., USA, Petroleum, 251 Mn
8. Nestle Japan Ltd., Switzerland, food & beverages, 221 Mn
9. Mobil Sekiyu K.K., USA, Petroleum, 192 Mn
10. Solomon Brothers Asia Ltd., Tokyo, USA, Securities, 191 Mn

( snicker, snicker )

(Sat May 09 1998 14:56 - ID#31868)
Mr. Mick - no,no,no,no,no,no,no,no,no, and no one more time. Everything you
said is correct with the exception of the, in chorus, one tequila, two tequila, three tequila, floor...

(Sat May 09 1998 14:58 - ID#286234)
tolerant1@world time
Check out this freebie

Mr. Mick
(Sat May 09 1998 14:58 - ID#345321)
SDRer_A - that's what I was saying to Carl this morning............
we are all in the same financial boat - at least on a macro scale.

Mr. Mick
(Sat May 09 1998 15:00 - ID#345321)
Tolerant1 - I'm not trying to paint you as a lush...................
I imbibe as much as you, but my liquid of choice is less potent ( on a per ounce basis ) .

(Sat May 09 1998 15:03 - ID#153102)
It would be against the "public interest" for an attorney to do what T1 sugests and as an officer of the court, a branch of government, his duty is first to the government, "the public interest". They will pull the ticket to practice of any lawyer that does it. Apparently, Boat People don't know Land Law.

Yopu cannot hire anyone to defend your rights. If you are fortunate, you can buy good counsel. That is what the Constitution guarantees you, "the right to assistance of counsel". Assistance. American law is not a spectator sport unless you want to pay for somebody's production of play-acting.

(Sat May 09 1998 15:11 - ID#26793)
My maternal grandfather had a dairy farm with the house, barn and milk room etc. on a state highway, pasture in the rear. The state wanted to upgrade the highway and selected a site behind the barn that cut the pasture off from everything else. They refused to provide, or compensate for access of the cows to the barn and paid a few hundred dollars for the right of way only. The farm was forced to close. The pasture and woodland still is landlocked by the state highway barrier.

Mr. Mick
(Sat May 09 1998 15:17 - ID#345321)
From the BBC - North Korea threatens US with nuclear war...............
North Korea has said it may no longer comply with
an agreement designed to prevent it from
developing nuclear weapons unless the United
States stands by an agreement to build two new
reactors and undertakes regular deliveries of oil.
BBC correspondent Andrew Wood reports from the
South Korean capital, Seoul,

The North Korean foreign ministry has accused the
United States of breaking promises it made to supply
fuel oil to help the country while an international
consortium builds a commercial nuclear power station to
replace its previous nuclear facilities.

A US diplomat here called the
development a worrisome breach of
obligations which we have to take
seriously. The United States has long
considered North Korea to be a
terrorist state.

It is worried that the country's nuclear programme was
being used to produce weapons. The North Koreans
agreed to dismantle the programme, and store fuel rods
in containers sealed by the International Atomic Energy

That would prove it was not developing weapons. The
process is nearly complete.

In return, a consortium of American, Japanese and
South Korean companies would build a new commercial
reactor. It is now well under way, and the United States
would deliver 500,000 tonnes of heavy fuel oil a year for
use in conventional power stations.

The problem is paying for it: South Korea and Japan are
suffering from severe economic problems, and the US
Congress is reluctant to provide cash either. The project
to supply oil is reported to be $50m in debt, and
although the US has tried to make regular deliveries, it
admits they have been erratic, and that has upset the
North Koreans.

They have said they may no longer put the fuel into
sealed storage, although they have given no indication
that they will break open seals on nuclear materials that
have already been stored. Nevertheless, a foreign
ministry statement quoted by the official South Korea
news agency, warned of consequences great beyond
prediction if American promises are not fulfilled.

(Sat May 09 1998 15:21 - ID#373403)
Why do I not own my house? I have no mortgage. I do not understand.

(Sat May 09 1998 15:27 - ID#290118)
Where do you hail from?
In these United State ( of America )
Same as if you quit paying rent, if you quit paying property taxes you get evicted and the government sells your land to the highest bidder or, as often the case, a friend of one of the government types or somebody who paid 'em some special "consideration". Sometimes the property never makes it to sherrif's sale or auction - it just quietly transfered.

(Sat May 09 1998 15:29 - ID#26793)
China is the new Asian leader as Japan is sullied more each day.

(Sat May 09 1998 15:30 - ID#31868)
mozel - no,no,no,no,no, I know plenty about land law my friend. It would be easy
to find an attorney to do what I said. Believe me, go after their precious and take no prisoners, none, it can and does work.

The state is not all powerful, all seeing like some fairy tale wizard. If you want to get to someone you can and it happens every day in the most polite of circles.

(Sat May 09 1998 15:32 - ID#373403)
Besides condemnation, the city council has applied for quicktake legislation downstate in Springfield which would allow them to condemn the property without the lengthy compensation negotiation process. It is to speed the process for public projects which are time sensitive. This, again, is not a public project, but whatever works, right?

Unfortunately, it is expensive to appeal condemnation, on behalf of developers, all the way to the Supreme Court where it would be rightfully struck down as unconstitutional.

(Sat May 09 1998 15:33 - ID#57232)
18 1/2 year cycle
Pete: Your 12:37. I will read this very carefully. The 18 1/2 year cycle referred to is probably the lunar tidal cycle. Astronomically speaking it is the precession of the elliptic orbit of the moon, giving peaks of unusually strong tides approx 18.67 years or so apart when the moon's orbit is optimally oriented. I have plotted this cycle from 1900 to 2027, and have attempted to correlate it with the markets. There is a correlation.

As I have posted several times, I do not see a regular correlation like this fellow claims, but rather that peaks and valleys in tidal activity correlate with broad turning points in the markets -- valid over the 100 years of data. El Ninos correlate with the minima -- they come one year or so later. But El Ninos come at other times on these tidal graphs of mine, too.

What do my graphs say now? We are at an 18.67 year maximum. So -- one could argue that we are haveing a market peak right now, and that it will go down from now on. Unfortunately one could argue equally well that the US markets will abruptly rally at this time, too.

I think Donalds post about money escaping Japan for safer shores suggests that a US market rally is more likely for the short term -- the old 'flight to safety' bit. I think we are replaying the score of the 20's -- countries all over the world are deflating, with the US markets being the haven of safety. Eventually, as it was in 1929, the US markets will plummet, and we will join the rest of the world in the current deflationary cycle. I cannot tell you when this will happen -- this year -- next year, I don't know. At the latest, it may occur in 2010-2015, when we will have a major tidal activity minimum -- just like a really big one during the great depression. But -- again to be more precise this is turning point data only. The direction must be given by the investor. The reason I am bearish is that this is also the time when our intitlement debts will come due, and when the baby boomers start to retire in a big way -- no money to prop up the markets.

I think we will have our final US financial crisis ( of this Kondratiev cycle ) well before 2010-2015, IMHO. I will try to come up with a more short-term tidal model when I have time, as the current one has a fine resolution of only one month.

(Sat May 09 1998 15:34 - ID#22956)
this kitco......yes.
she eeeeza berry gooood....yes ( ! ) .
go the moon and then stars......ohmy!
Thanks to DJmasterino for the charts......I bought my last bit-o-plat Thursday.......It is now past the belly button depth and approaching the nipplage.....easy lime-fella.....*my* nips not hers ( grin thing ) smoke ( cook cherokee ) a couplo turkies and drink homebrew..... ( my first batch....hmmmmmmm ) .
rewmaster ( ? )

(Sat May 09 1998 15:37 - ID#31868)
themissinglink - file the liens!!!
Find an attorney and freeze their personal assets along with the City Councils assets.

This will make the eventual cost to you less, maybe nil and you stand a good chance of getting money for damages.

Do the research and file the liens, go for their throats and do not let go!!!

(Sat May 09 1998 15:37 - ID#26793)
Nationsbank pays $6.75 mil. fine for duping elderly investors into derivatives.

(Sat May 09 1998 15:38 - ID#288369)
@EBadtothe bone...............joint.
Wow! man, Did you see the bone on that bug? Cheech to Chong ( hee hee ) .....whose song was played at the 4:00 ritual? :^ ) ~

(Sat May 09 1998 15:48 - ID#153102)
The simple proof that you do not own it is that if you do not pay the tax, they will sell it out from under you. There are other simple proofs related to the fact you have to get permission to use it.

The legal story is quite complicated. But, the short version is that in England, the King owned all the land. He made land grants. In return the tenant made payments. They were exactions. Tax is the modern word.
In America, every man is a King without subjects in the law of the Declaration of Independence. An American owned his land as absolutely as any King. But, over time the attorneys and government together decided that in America the State would take the place previously occupied by the King in common-law. And land title law commenced to depreciate to where it is now. The forms of law are still observed, but the substance is eaten away. Get out your Deed. You will read that there is a Grantor and a Grantee. The Deed language has the sound of a land grant. But, the law behind it is rotten. Titles are now at best "merchantable" unless land has been in a family for generations.

Land titles were impaired by rotten attorneys before the turn of this century, but it was not until the FDR collectivist revolution that the rot really set in. Basically, the States via the attorneys establish an equitable interest in every land transfer. ( Remember, corporations and other "articifical persons" can only speak and act by attorney. ) The government was bankrupt, so it needed collateral. The details vary from State to State, especially depending on when the State purportedly was adsmitted to the Union. In Arizona, in addition, the federal and State have kept all mineral rights to themselves. But, in no State is the land held by allodial title. With allodial title, a man could not be put off his land even by default on a mortgage or any other debt. The land and the man were Inalienable. The shared interest among banks, government, and attorneys in doing away with allodial title should be apparent.

(Sat May 09 1998 15:49 - ID#26793)
Koreans think an international conspiracy wrecked their economy.

(Sat May 09 1998 15:53 - ID#373403)
North suburb of Chicago. Property taxes do not mean you do not own your property. None of us lives in our own sovereign land we call home. It is in our best interest to band together and pool resources for things like schools, police, and fire protection. We pay federal taxes for our military and other wasteful things.

Having said that, confiscation due to the failure to pay property or income taxes does not negate basic property ownership rights firmly established in law. These ownership laws are essential to the proper functioning of capitalist society just as property and income taxes are essential to the sovereignty of our country.

We are not a pure capitalist democracy as you point out but neither are we a complete socialist or totalitarian country either. There is a balance between the needs of the many and the needs of the few. I just happen to think that condemnation for the sake of tax maximization is not a public interest which overrides property ownership laws.

(Sat May 09 1998 15:56 - ID#359316)
Y2K: Hold your gold and eat 12 year old food
Well, perhaps Y2K will be fixed by 2012.
I am eating, as I type this, 12 year old food. Just the stuff
for you Y2K worriers, I would have thought.
Because of its dessicated nature and inedibility to bugs etc.,
( yes I have seen the creepy crawly horrors that eat our food, in the Natural History Museum )
Kwikfry potato puffs and their ilk ( I have no financial interest
in them by the way ) last for a large amount of time. In fact,
these ones have been sitting in my kitchen since I moved house
12 years ago, I remember having them in my previous place.
You just deep fry them in hot oil and they puff up like crisps
( potato chips in other vernacular )
I don't know if this particular company is still trading, but
their address is Manfred Products Ltd., Grange Street, Wakefield,
West Yorkshire. They ( used to ) sell catering packs of 850 grams net.
Prawn crackers are another similar product, although I have not any
12 year old packs of those to try. I will let you all know if I
get sick... although, my wife refuses to eat them.

Potato starch, potato flour, salt, dried autolysed yeast, groundnut oil,
hydrolised vegetable protein, onion powder, monosodium glutamate, pepper, permitted colouring.

(Sat May 09 1998 15:58 - ID#153102)
Well, you may want to get busy following your own advice because if you have one of those registration numbers on your boat, somebody has got an equitable interest tentacle planted in it from topmast to keel.

(Sat May 09 1998 16:03 - ID#255284)
kinda like a cargo cult in reverse

"Koreans think an international conspiracy wrecked their economy" Yes, it is true, if the koreans say so. The Japanese believed that American Earthquake weapons created the Great Kanto earthquake in Tokyo Sept 1923. and that the US had threatened Japanese sovereignty and spheres of influence leaving no option but war by 1941.

We used to have a poster here who would talk about perception, and changing the perception, sometimes perception will not be changed, despite contradictory facts. Isn't that what the world of faith teaches? Contradictory facts that expose errors in the world view of faith should be ignored, for the sake of maintaining the faith.

All men are liars. I am such a bad liar, I have found that the truth is the easiest lie to maintain.

(Sat May 09 1998 16:04 - ID#31868)
mozel - you are making an assumption that the boat you speak of is
registered in the United States. Jumping to conclusions leaves one clutching at air.

(Sat May 09 1998 16:05 - ID#26793)
Ethnic Chinese flee Indonesia

(Sat May 09 1998 16:05 - ID#57232)
Sunspot activity and recessions - so I am not a voice in the wilderness
Squirrel: Thanks for posting that. I did the same and had to duck alot of flying xxx - comments. I would add something to this. I have looked at this very carefully, and suspect that the sunspots per se are not the culprits. It is somthing else that corellates with sunspots -- such as solar flare activity, or earth magetic field alterations, or neutron flux. Something that affects human activity.

However, I cannot graph these parameters, but I can graph sunspot activity. What can I say right now? Currently we are in a period of increasing sunspot activity. Over the last 100 years or so, that correlates with rising stockmarket indices, and rising commodity prices, but only while the sunspot activity is increasing. When the sunspot activity peaks, the markets are likely to droop as well.

So -- if we take the sunspot indicator by itself, it is bullish for the next six months. Probability of a rally about 2x baseline probability. But when we go back to baseline probability -- watch out! That will be approximately the first or second quarter of 1999. Just about the right time for y2k to show its ugly head too, and mess up the foreign markets.

For those doubting thomases, just ignore my post. You are more than welcome to find your own long term indicators.

(Sat May 09 1998 16:07 - ID#153102)
"There is a balance between the needs of the many and the needs of the

There is no place in that statement for the rights in property of the individual. Unfortunately, my powers of explanation are wanting. Otherwise, you would see by now that ownership is not a balance; it is an either/or matter. I guess Americans will just have to learn how to think again the hard way. But, mark my words, social and vague won't cut it except in the collective.

(Sat May 09 1998 16:09 - ID#26793)
We are faced with a worldwide debt cult. These cult members think that debt will make them rich. They learn it from their government debt cult leaders who set the example.

(Sat May 09 1998 16:09 - ID#31868)
Trinovant - what you speak of, are these the little discs you can get at Chinese
restaurants. When deep fried they puff. They are available in pink, lime green, white colors?

(Sat May 09 1998 16:12 - ID#344308)

time to re-post world order update...


i find it hard to believe we will make it through '98 with-out a major
collapse in equities...the catalyst being japan.....and the drought in the us this summer......the charts do not lie...and look at the current
events...very plausible.

the latest down-turn in grains is what i've been waiting for.
...when they bottom this time..i'll be buying futures in corn and wheat....beans may yet make one more run at a new low....maybe not..
will put in a gtc order on on corn and wheat. pick your numbers...stick to the plan...stop loss orders. don't let the losses run...get out.

going to begin accumulating mini ( kilo ) gold futures on monday...slowly,
as with the options plan---....yes, a plan. afraid of the lawn-mower blade? get a bat with an insurance policy...long gold, with a put option
close to the money....chop-a-saki......

more THOUGHTS later...chop-a-saki......


(Sat May 09 1998 16:15 - ID#26793)
"Suharto is the son of Satan"

(Sat May 09 1998 16:19 - ID#255284)
yep trinovant is, they're called Krupek in Indonesia. WHile krupek are tasty with gado gado ( a dish so good they had to name it twice ) , I would go mad if all I had was prawn crackers, not to mention having a constantly dry mouth. Also have to have cooking oil that is v hot. Take some wood to heat up. Gotta be something better than prawn crackers on the menu to look forward to?

(Sat May 09 1998 16:22 - ID#26793)
Australian dollar expected to fall to US 60c on worse than expected Asian news.

(Sat May 09 1998 16:23 - ID#153102)
Just one last thought on the property matter.

Picture yourself if you will standing before the representatives of your banded together for the good of all, collectivist Chicago government: they ask you this question: "What right have you to this property when we can make so much better use of it for the benefit of the many ?"

Go through different scenarios in which the property is your land, your gold, your car, your gun, your grandfather clock. etc.

Make youself come up with an answer. Just to yourself.

(Sat May 09 1998 16:25 - ID#238295)
Many on this site are angry at government. But who controls government here in the USA? The Fortune 500, the banks, and Wall Street -- that's who. Bill Clinton and the Republican Congress are both bought and paid for. The big money boys don't give a hoot about Bill Clinton's many crimes as long as he delivers the goods to the financial elite.

If a serious campaign finance reforb law were ever passed because of citizen pressure, the Dow probably would drop 2,000 points and gold rally 50 bucks or so.

(Sat May 09 1998 16:27 - ID#57232)
Property ownership - the laws should be clear.
mozel: When you are talking about specifics such as property ownership, the laws do need to be precise. I was trying to purchase some lake front property -- land only -- for an unbelievably low price. Spent nearly six months clearing up various technical problems, only to find at the last minute that the owner did not have the title deed to the property. He bought it through a tax confiscation -- the previous owner had defaulted 8 years previously. So technically he thought he had the 'title' but not really. It turns out that in my state you can buy land at these tax 'sales', but you can have the land taken away from you and have it given back to the original owner even twenty years later. All the owener has to do is present the delinquent back taxes with interest. If you have built a house in the meanwhile on the property, tough luck.

Needless to say we did not close the deal.

I do have one other thought on property ownership. Do you think there ever was a time in the US when any individual had absolute ownership of property that could not be confiscated for failure to pay property taxes?

I think Texas has special bankruptcy laws so that you cannot lose your primary residences, but I do not know if any other states have this. I think in a real crisis, people will band together and resist tax foreclosures -- such as what the farmers did in the great depression.

(Sat May 09 1998 16:27 - ID#26793)
@JTF: follow-up on gamma-ray post of two days ago

(Sat May 09 1998 16:29 - ID#26793)
@Old Gold
The public is outraged whenever public funding of political campains is proposed. Big business is horrified that it might happen and remove their stranglehold.

(Sat May 09 1998 16:33 - ID#344308)'

absolutely scorching hot here in s texas...
had a blood red sunset yester-day...first ever in my
42 years to have seen the sun like that at 1:00pm...
fires burning in s mexico created a haze that blanketed
s texas with a dense smoky haze...looked like the reddened
eye of cyclops after odysseus impaled him with a fire-brand...
quite appropriate too...the heat, and an infuriated cyclops
wreaking havoc upon the peopleo with respiratory distress..
and mental duress......looked like the gates of hell, with
the cars stacked in bumper-to-bumper......heading into the
setting sun.....and the gates of hell......phew...going to
buy even more grains....the weather is ab-normal to say the least..
can we expect a normal growing season? hell no....look at what has
happened in california for the last 4 months...i was
was flooding like a mf!!

'for every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction' sir isaac..

A DROUGHT THIS limb...and my money..i'll buy grains knowing i'm standing on the shoulder of isaac newton....and the farmers almanac...and nostradamus...and my own skewed reality..skewed from peopleo ways....physics dictates everything....


(Sat May 09 1998 16:37 - ID#26793)
@JTF: Solar flares have an impact on human behaviour

(Sat May 09 1998 16:38 - ID#359316)
aurator, tolerant1
Yes, prawn crackers = kropoek ( spelling varies ) = beignets de crevettes.
I get these from the Chinese supermarket in London. However, the 12 year old versions I have are English, they work on the same principle but taste oniony rather than prawny. Maybe a little variety to add to the red wheat bread??? If you have farmland, look into 'clamps' for storage of potatoes etc. In the absence of modern electrically driven refrigerated storage, all the methods you need are in the history books.

(Sat May 09 1998 16:40 - ID#153102)
@JTF @Donald
Government took far more land in the Depression for taxes than banks did for defaults on mortgages.

Donald: the government has a virtual lock on the ballot now. Public campaign finance will give the incumbents an airtight lock on the whole process. Just like in the USSR where campaigns were publicly financed. Who do you think will decide who gets funded ? A commission ? Appointed by whom ?

Bully Beef
(Sat May 09 1998 16:40 - ID#259282)'ve got the best polititians money can buy!
Ha! Ha!

(Sat May 09 1998 16:42 - ID#26793)
@JTF: Sunspot researchers delight.

(Sat May 09 1998 16:47 - ID#252127)
You figure it

The value of the European CB gold holdings, be they called reserves or backing have fallen about $50+ billion dollars in about 2 years because of Central Bank sales, media badmouthing or plain lack of understanding and the governmental obligations ( favours ) to large broker/bankers by protection of their large gold short positions, etc., etc.
The basis of the above loss in their gold reserve value value is that gold would have been at least $420 without the above mentioned pressures.
Now; how can interest on gold sales approach $50 billion in reserve losses?
Or was the SEA crisis created to suction Asian gold off on the cheap?

(Sat May 09 1998 16:49 - ID#57232)
So -- Arch Crawford! Interesting post. Logging off - heading home.
Donald: Many thanks. Sunspots are fairly predictable, but not solar flares. My guess is that a solar flare indicator would require monitoring for same, and knowing how the market responds.

What I need to do is plot historical solar flares of a certain minimum intensity ( they are only during high sunspot activity ) against the markets. Hopefully a statistical pattern will arise. I think there is also a delay of about 24 hours or so from when you see the flare to when the emitted charged particles impact the Earth's ( electro ) magnetosphere. They travel at much less than the speed of light.

(Sat May 09 1998 16:50 - ID#259400)
I have been playing around with my charts and I did one for spot gold using friday closing prices. If you go to the last three clear cut highs and draw a line through them you wind up connecting
Mar 1, 1997 - 358.50
Oct 3, 1997 - 334.50
Apr 24, 1998- 312.40
Then go and find the last 3 clear cut lows, connect them with a line and you come up with
Feb 8, 1997 - 339.65
Dec 12 1997 - 282.90
Jan 9, 1998 - 278.25
What you get is a clearly defined channel. I can see no evidence of a bull market in this channel. It looks very much like we have just bounced off the upper trend line. If we go all the way to the bottom trend line we are in the below 260 area. I wish I knew how to do attachments and all that stuff as it is a great looking chart. Problem is looks like a chasm under the current price of gold. If any one else has spot gold tracked on spread sheet program I would appreciate your interpretation of this chart.

(Sat May 09 1998 16:53 - ID#153102)
Yes, to your question. Allodial title was the basis of land ownership after the War of Independence. It was the basis spelled out in the Northwest Ordinance enacted under the Articles of Confederation. It took generations to erode it away. But it was not until this century that the rot really set in. Now, people are mentally adapted to the idea that trespass by government is normal, even desireable. They are mentally collectivist. It's mob rule. If they want your thing, the mob says, "If it will cut my tax bill, take it."

(Sat May 09 1998 16:54 - ID#26793)
I read recently of one proposal that was for unlimited campaign contributions by individuals only but with full disclosure. That proposal was constructed to make the giving and acceptance of money a larger campaign issue than it is at present.

When I was in corporate life I was "shaken down" to give contributions to the company PAC for use in what they saw as their best interest, not in mine.

There is disclosure now of individual money in amounts over $200 but not of so called "soft" party building money. Both parties are at fault. Soft corporate money usually goes to Republicans. Soft union money to Democrats. How do you get around the Supreme Court rulings on these issues?

(Sat May 09 1998 17:06 - ID#255284)
after reading your post, put on Allman Bros Dickey Betts' Jessica at "wake the neighbours" volume. A long time since Greg, Duanne & Dickie have graced my turntable.

Your post reminded me of Guy Clark's song "South Coast of Texas". gotta get me there one day.

The other day, after a post about lettuce gone bad because of the rain, I was about to post a story about the same thing exactly happening here. lettuces and brassicas rotting before harvest, price of cauliflower so high I've not bought any this year yet, and no longer have the space to grow them..

food and water, so easily taken for stockpiles of fresh vegetables possible...

Do tell us how your first brew went.

(Sat May 09 1998 17:08 - ID#153102)
You simply enact a low dollar limit and require campaigns to disclose every dollar of expense. You can be funded by one person or a hundred.

I oppose disclosure of who is giving because of the potential for revenge on them by the winning party when they have the reins of government.

(Sat May 09 1998 17:09 - ID#57232)
Correction on sunpots
All: I meant to say that the maximum bullish effect on the markets and commodities is when sunspot activity is rising the fastest ( the slope ) . Once you are at maximum sunspot activity, the bullish effect is long gone. So the highest probability of a sunspot correlated market bull ( approx 2x increase based on historical data ) is from now to the time of maximum rise -- first or second quarter of 1999.

Please remember that I am not predicting anything precisely -- just giving probabilities based on sunspot activity alone. The investor must weigh the odds.

(Sat May 09 1998 17:15 - ID#26793)
Friday closing gold and silver coin prices.

(Sat May 09 1998 17:18 - ID#153102)
If corporations were not persons by the 14th Amendment, you could just tell them to shut up by law.
But, if you have been believing my writing, you know they have worked matters around until you as a voter are an "articifial person" and the candidates are "artificial persons", so a law to shut up corporations would shut everyone up.

(Sat May 09 1998 17:19 - ID#57232)
Going home -- the real boss is having Mother's day one day early.
mozel: Thanks! I value your incisive opinion/insight. Perhaps one day there will be a groundswell of public opinion to put things back they were. And we all will need you to tell us what to ask for.

I think a clue to the 'awakening' of the average American is the steady rise in demand for gold coins. Gold bullion prices my go down again -- briefly, but not those of numismatic coins. Our politicians may think the average American is a stupid 'sheep' to be shorn. But -- I think that will not be for much longer. Here's to the future of America, and the free world.

Here's to everyone on Kitco -- the catalyst.

(Sat May 09 1998 17:30 - ID#153102)
Thanks for your posts on sun cycles and other phenomena. BBL

(Sat May 09 1998 17:33 - ID#31868)
Trinovant - aurator - many thanks on the prawn crackers,
I shall have to conduct some experiments. And search for gado, gado.

(Sat May 09 1998 17:35 - ID#26793)
Candidates for federal office are now required to report expenses to the Federal Election Commission and the Secretary of the State in their home state, all expenses that aggregate $200 or more in a single year. That is done twice in the off-year and about 10 times in the election year.

It is the corporate money that is the most worrisome to me. In addition to the PAC contribution, the big corporate honcho "invites" you to meet the candidate of his/her choice at a fundraiser lawn party at his home. If you want to get the next promotion you just might decide to attend. That kind of pressure is tough to defy for most people with a mortgage and kids. Often the honcho has many candidates of his choice, sometimes he plays both sides of the street in the same contest!

(Sat May 09 1998 17:38 - ID#373403)
Let's say I were really upset and decided to become a lawyer to fight for my rights and file briefs on behalf of victims of government. Do you believe in your heart that educating oneself to the truths of the situation will allow one to effectively fight back?

(Sat May 09 1998 17:42 - ID#255284)
Bart, an idea for a new page?

Thanks for those coin prices, it would be nice to see them every week.

Perhaps there's another possible enhancement for this site, BART?

A page with weekly info collated in one place, some suggestions here, perhaps others can add to the list for Weekly page?

Updated charts of the precious ones with and without channels
Updated coin prices from Wash post
updated charts of ratios Au/Ag; Au/Dow, XAU/Au
Shippi's wonderful Charts
updated ANOTHER*
Post of the week
Recipe of the week

*BTW, it would be a service to kitco and the world if anyone has compiled mozel's posts to post them all together as sharefin does with ANOTHER's

I doubt it will be too hard to find a sponsor for such a new page?

(Sat May 09 1998 17:50 - ID#290118)
Property Ownership
Please shoot holes this argument if you can.
The closest we can come to property ownership is a nation state of individuals banded together for the common purpose of being willing and able to defend their individual property rights from any aggressor - be it a neighbor within that nation state or an aggressor from outside of it. They must have adequate force to accomplish this task - be it pitchforks, knives, crossbows, blowguns, assault rifles, helicopters, tanks or nukes.
In the same vein, property rights must be absolute. They must not permit any one or several of their own, whether as a mob or as a government, to forcefully infringe or injure the property rights and sovereignty of any other individual of that nation state. Period!
Mozel and I have both said in different ways that in Chicago or anywhere in these United States or, for that matter, the world - a group of people, if they have the force to do so, can and will collectively impose their will on any other group or an individual and confiscate ( steal ) anything they want. Thus you have security for your wife, children, food, weapons, tools, vehicles, guns, gold, script, buildings, livestock and land only if you, by yourself or in concert with people you can trust can defend it from ANY aggressor.
A "friend" has repeatedly assured me that he, his family and his friends will stand by me and each other for mutual defense no matter what happens. I say to him: As soon as it becomes beneficial for you to cut my throat to leave more food for your family I will be dead! Thus "friends" may turn on you and take from you whatever they please - if they can.
Thus the definition of true friends and family becomes quite restrictive indeed. If necessary, they will risk their life for you and you for them. Beyond a few hundred individuals there is no organization of people with such a bond.
For those of you who have not read ATLAS SHRUGGED by Ayn Rand - I implore you to do so. It would be splendid if Kitcoites could form such a bond and form a community as John Gault did.

Gusto Oro
(Sat May 09 1998 17:55 - ID#377235)
Beautiful prose there Cherokee. Apparently that Cyclops is wreaking havoc on the metals too. --Alan

(Sat May 09 1998 17:57 - ID#153102)
@themissinglink @Donald
Themissinglink All I can say is that when the courts don't work anymore, it will be a short time until the shooting starts. The government is the law. If it can be fixed, it will be fixed by people doing as you propose. Because there is nothing like dealing with government one on one in a courtroom to educate a man as to what it's all about. And that eventually will produce meaningful political action along with legal action.

There is some progress from time to time. I understand that the bond for IRS agents has been raised from $100,000 to $1,000,000 and the government has told them they must acquire their own bond. ( If anyone knows the bonding company, please post it. There are judgements to be executed. ) I daresay this will do more to improve IRS conformance with the law than any political action before Congress.

It ain't easy. No part of it. But, then, whoever said Fredom was free ?

Donaold The symbiotic relationship between government and corporations is at or near the root of many of the problems. Destroying the myth that corporations are private enterprise is part of the solution.

(Sat May 09 1998 18:03 - ID#341189)
Re your post on gold channels: I plotted the lines you suggest. ( Please note I am neither an expert or believer in this kind of thing because it seems to me to contain so little info - it takes 2 pts to establish the line, so the degrees of freedom are vast. ) But assuming there is something to this, the critical point seems to be in the 310 area. That is, if we can't get above there and break your downtrend line, it would seem to make your point stronger. By the way, I prefer to look at the chart with no lines imposed. Looking at the gold chart since Jan 1996, it does seem to have bottomed, don't you think?

(Sat May 09 1998 18:07 - ID#257136)
mozel: Read your 02:57 with interesst.
A member of the group which founded the National Tax Strike Association in the 70s, one John Grandbouche, began a commidities company with the express purpose being to keep property from the criminal gang known as the IRS.
The name of the co. was National Commodity and Barter Association.
The IRS broke into the "security" storage facility and stole somewhere between 2 and 4 millions of Patriot's gold and silver.
The matter was taken to court, and as nearly as I know for a fact,there has been NO SUCCESS in reclaiming the properety.
My guess is the individual gubmnt agents filled their pockets during the raid and the amount proven by records to have been seized was nowhere near the amount available for a "count" or inventory.
I hope the system of recovering property stolen by gubmnt agents has improved since then.
I have a feeling robnoel can enlighten us further re: where the PMs ended up. Not that he has or had any involvement on the side of the criminals!!

I'm sure he has contact with the persons who have carried on the FIGHT since John Grandbouche died of a heart attack at a young age. I believe he preceded his mother as a matter of fact.

As one who has literally "paid" dues in the Freedom Fight, I can tell you I am ambivalent re: y2k. Part of me can barely wait as it bodes ill for the interlopers in D.C., but it also bodes ill for millions of innocent persons.
If things occur as prophesied, there will be no gubmnt agents to be found. They will all deny any involvment as such.
That is as it should be. Crime should never go unrewarded.

As a fellow Patriot was fond of saying, They took our gold, then they took our silver- now we'll have to GIVE 'EM OUR LEAD!
Go gold and gold and silver shares!
I would advise all to do as is being said to do. Just Keep the mouth shut, except for close relatives and only those you can trust implicitly!

P.S. I obtained some of my education from studies at an institute of higher learning sponsored by USG.

Firstr free vacation I have ever had. To date it is the only one. Hope I never have to take another such, but.......Quien

Just hadda waste the band width!

(Sat May 09 1998 18:08 - ID#410114)
Thomas cook is showing a 1.8% premium for their Junk silver

Silver Coins $1000 face
value pre 1965 circulation. $4368.00 up $56.50

(Sat May 09 1998 18:08 - ID#255217)
Voting with one"s feet...
I personally like the concept of voting with one's feet. However, in order to do so one must have a destination in mind so that the feet may carry out their instructions in an orchestrated manner ( they gotta know where they'er going ) . WHERE, pray tell, in this increasingly structured ( read government controlled ) world should one direct one's feet to travel?

WHICH land of OZ best represents that which man in his never-ending quest for freedom and liberty searches? WHERE THE HELL DO YOU GO? THERE AIN'T NO UTOPIA! But I am still open-minded AND looking. Australia, N.Z., S. Africa, S. America ( which country ) , Canada ( too cold ) , the Carribean ( which country? ) , the South Pacific ( which country? ) . WHERE? I WANT to tell my feet: "Start voting". Which of the aforenamed places is gold-friendly? ANY?

Nuff said.

Uh huh! Sorry, RJ.

(Sat May 09 1998 18:11 - ID#401460)
Indonesia and its creditor banks

The Players:

Indonesia and its creditor banks are negotiating how to reschedule the $80 billion in debt held by Indonesia's private sector in a nation racked by political and financial turmoil.

The group consists of a 13-member steering committee of creditor banks, co-chaired by BTM ( 8315.T ) , Chase Manhattan Bank ( CMB - news ) and Deutsche Bank AG ( DBKG.F ) , a delegation led by Indonesia's top economics minister Ginandjar Kartasasmita and head debt negotiator Radius Prawiro, and representatives from the International Monetary Fund ( IMF ) and the World Bank.
"The World is WatchingYou..."
Rubin is still worried about Indonesia


(Sat May 09 1998 18:12 - ID#222231)
JTF-18 1/2 year cycles
I'm posting the rest of the data for your prognosis. BTW, thanx for a response. Sorry I did'nt get back to you sooner, chores you know.

A separate column here is given for each new business generation of 18 1/2 yrs.
A panic is not a matter of purse but of mind.
The periodicity of crisis and depression is very generally recognised.
* *C * *F * *J
* * * * * *
* D G *
History repeats itself and a comparison with similar yrs of previous business generations will show the reasons for these predictions.
Inasmuch as the human race advances upon the plan of a spiral. Around and around continuously treading near upon the ground it has trodden before, and each new business generation learns by bitter experience, making the same mistakes at the same period in its history, over and over again, the story of American panics and stock value fluctuations should have particular interest for us now that a new business generation has begun.

"A"-Extreme low stock prices-strikes-depression-despair-beginning of new business generation of 18 1/2 yrs.
About 4 yrs. of rising stock prices.
About 4 yrs. of improving business. Markets bare of goods.

"B"-High stock prices.


"D"-Low stock prices.

"E"-High stock prices.


"G"-Low stock prices.

"H"-Very high stock prices-most prosperous yr.-waste-over speculation-extravagance-no more poverty ever! most paper money in circulation-everybody rich-stocks high and rising.

"J"-Major panic-crash-about 4 yrs. of falling stock prices-business stagnation-despair and unemployment.

"K"-Extreme low stock prices-depression-despair ( Same as "A" )

1784 1803 1821 1840 1858 1877 1895 1914 1932 1951 1969 1988
1785A 1804A 1822A 1841A 1859A 1878A 1896A 1915A 1933A 1952A 1970A 1989A
1786 1805 1823 1842 1860 1879 1897 1916 1934 1953 1971 1990
1787 1806 1824 1843 1861 1880 1898 1917 1935 1954 1972 1991
1788 1807 1825 1844 1862 1881 1899 1918 1936 1955 1973 1992
1789B 1808B 1826B 1845B 1863B 1882B 1900B 1919B 1937B 1956B 1974B 1993B
1790 1809 1827 1846 1864 1883 1901 1920 1938 1957 1975 1994
1791C 1810C 1828C 1847C 1865C 1884C 1902C 1921C 1939C 1958C 1976C 1995C
1792D 1811D 1829D 1848D 1866D 1885D 1903D 1922D 1940D 1959D 1977D 1996D
1793 1812 1830 1849 1867 1886 1904 1923 1941 1960 1978 1997
1794 1813E 1831 1850E 1868 1887E 1905 1924E 1942 1961E 1979 1998
1795E 1814F 1832E 1851F 1869E 1888F 1906E 1925F 1942E 1962F 1980E 1999F
1796F 1815 1833F 1852 1870F 1889 1907F 1926 1944F 1963 1981F 2000
1797G 1816G 1834G 1853G 1871G 1890G 1908G 1927G 1945G 1964G 1982G 2001G
1798 1817H 1835 1854H 1872 1891H 1909 1928H 1946 1965H 1983 2002H
1799H 1818 1836H 1855 1873H 1892 1910H 1929 1947H 1966 1984H 2003
1800J 1819J 1837J 1856J 1874J 1893J 1911J 1930J 1948J 1967J 1985J 2004J
1801 1820 1838 1857 1875 1894 1912 1931 1949 1968 1986 2005
1802 1821 1839 1858 1876 1895 1913 1932 1950 1969 1987 2006
1803 1822K 1840 1859K 1877 1896K 1914 1933K 1951 1970K 1988 2007K
1804K 1823 1841K 1860 1878K 1897 1915K 1934 1952K 1971 1989K 2008


(Sat May 09 1998 18:14 - ID#307271)
r.j. RE: Gold, Silver, Lead
Me thinks, if they drive gold and silver low enough, we might be able to give 'em our silver and gold instead of lead ( perfect iamb ) . Just think, we could go werewolfing: if lead won't stop 'em, maybe silver will stop 'em. if silver won't do, surely a gold bo-o-o-let will stop anything!

(Sat May 09 1998 18:16 - ID#255284)
from my book of bon mots

"Gold, like the sun, which melts wax, but hardens clay; expands great souls and contracts bad hearts."


(Sat May 09 1998 18:19 - ID#224149)
Hypothesize who supposition is hypothesis
Channeling ---Mondays full Moon should speak emotionally --- Especially here at Kitco --Away Let nature and the Sun Shine In ---Love that C$ maybe some long term soma beans Thud----mop.

(Sat May 09 1998 18:21 - ID#222231)
The periodicity chart did not come out as wanted. "A" is low point-"B" is zenith-"C" is between "B" and "D"-"D" is higher than "A"-"E" is zenith-"F" is between "E" and "G"-"G" is same level as "D"-"H" is zenith-"J" is between "H" and "K"-"K" same level as "A".

(Sat May 09 1998 18:27 - ID#290118)
Where or Where to vote with your feet!
Argent, unless someone comes up with better ideas...
1 ) your idea of wait for the whole thing to come crashing down and then start over - the right way - again.
2 ) move to some isolated place, declare & enforce sovereignty and then start over - the right way - again
3 ) or both as in ATLAS SHRUGGED.
In either case to secure our gold, grub & gear to weather the storm.
But how does one contact others of similar persuasion without risking one's own security and the security of those he contacts?
In John Gault's valley - gold and silver were the mediums of exchange - Gold for large transactions, Silver for small change.

(Sat May 09 1998 18:35 - ID#307271)
Poor souls. Guess they're just gone bye bye.

"Judge not, that you be not judged.

For with what judgment you judge, you will be judged; and with the measure you use, it will be measured back to you."

(Sat May 09 1998 18:38 - ID#153102)
If you can get into court at common-law, they have to give you the law. Very few get into court on that basis today. They get "equity" which involves "public policy" and "public interest", in other words, the judge's notion of what is fair or right. Since the revenue agents bring home the bacon for the whole tribe of them, ... you know the rest.

That said, I think there is merit in defensive preparation in law. There is even more merit in defensive plans to keep their eyes and hands off of it.

Pioneers like you have my admiration and respect.

(Sat May 09 1998 18:42 - ID#26793)
Banking industry wants the right to sell your financial information.

(Sat May 09 1998 18:46 - ID#341189)
US Military abruptly ends joint exercise in Indonesia

(Sat May 09 1998 18:50 - ID#26793)
IMF praises Indonesia for "braving the unrest"

(Sat May 09 1998 18:50 - ID#335190)
Mozel @ "Study and Learn" (Heathen's Terms eh !)I suggest the site is a good read.
................"For America to Live, Europe Must Die"

The only possible opening for a statement of this kind is that I detest writing. The process itself epitomizes the European concept of "legitimate" thinking; what is written has an importance that is denied the spoken. My culture, the Lakota culture, has an oral tradition, so I ordinarily reject writing. It is one of the white world's ways of destroying the cultures of non-European peoples, the imposing of an abstraction over the spoken relationship of a people.

There is also some confusion about the word Indian , a mistaken belief that it refers somehow to the country, India. When Columbus washed up on the beach in the Caribbean, he was not looking for a country called India. Europeans were calling that country Hindustan in 1492. Look it up on the old maps. Columbus called the tribal people he met "Indio," from the Italian in dio , meaning "in God." )

Being is a spiritual proposition. Gaining is a material act. Traditionally, American Indians have always attempted to be the best people they could. Part of that spiritual process was and is to give away wealth, to discard wealth in order not to gain. Material gain is an indicator of false status among traditional people, while it is "proof that the system works" to Europeans. Clearly, there are two completely opposing views at issue here, and Marxism is very far over to the other side from the American Indian view. But lets look at a major implication of this; it is not merely an intellectual debate.

There's a rule of thumb that can be applied here. You cannot judge the real nature of a revolutionary doctrine on the basis of the changes it proposed to make within the European power structure and society. You can only judge it by the effect it will have on non-European peoples. This is because every revolution in European history has served to reinforce Europe's tendencies and abilities to export destruction to other peoples, other cultures and the environment itself. I defy anyone to point out an example where this is not true.

Revolutionary Marxism, like industrial society in other forms, seeks to "rationalize" all people in relation to industry - maximum industry, maximum production. It is a materialist doctrine that despises the American Indian spiritual tradition, out cultures, our lifeways. Marx himself called up "precapitalists" and "primitive." Precapitalist simply means that, in his view, we would eventually discover capitalism and become capitalists; we have always been economically retarded in Marxist terms.

The only manner in which American Indian people could participate in a Marxist revolution would be to join the industrial system, to become factory workers, or "proletarians," as Marx called them. The man was very clear about the fact that his revolution could occur only through the struggle of the proletariat, that the existence of a massive industrial system is a precondition of a successful Marxist society.

All European tradition, Marxism included, has conspired to defy the natural order of things. Mother Earth has been abused, the powers have been abused, and this cannot go on forever.

No theory can alter that simple fact. Mother Earth will retaliate, the whole environment will retaliate, and the abusers will be eliminated. Things will come full circle, back to where they started. That's revolution. And that's a prophecy of my people, of the Hopi people and of other correct peoples.

American Indians are still in touch with these realities - the prophecies, the traditions of our ancestors. We learn from the elders, from nature, from the powers. And when the catastrophe is over, we American Indian people will survive; harmony will be reestablished. That's revolution.

I work with anyone who has experience the colonial oppression of Europe and who resists its cultural and industrial totality. Obviously, this includes genetic Caucasians who struggle to resist the dominant norms of European culture. The Irish and the Basques come immediately to mind, but there are many others.

So, I suppose to conclude this, I would state clearly that leading anyone toward Marxism is the last thing on my mind. Marxism is as alien to my culture as capitalism and Christianity are.

FWIW...........Take Care

(Sat May 09 1998 18:54 - ID#255284)
Go on, say it. Say "Curiosity killed the cat."
an enormous chasm just opened between us. Without judgement, we cannot exercise the gift of sapience to its fullest extent. We cut off a part of our humanity.... the questioning mind.....By quoting this scripture you have demonstrated the blind unthinkingness, therefore the inherent evil, of a faith that allows a statement such as this to represent itself as a truth.....

Judgement is essential to union with the mysteries of this universe. By judging we demarcate experience. That demarcation will likely reveal its untruthfulness or lack of entirety, so we make another judgement. This is why we are not living in caves, why most of the world has is called reason, science, the progress of thought...

Where faith and reason are indistinguishable, there shall I venture...the path leads to .....

(Sat May 09 1998 18:58 - ID#258142)
Yesterday for the first time I received bank slips in two currencies - guilders and EURO. These guys are ready. Here we go

(Sat May 09 1998 18:59 - ID#233199)
@SDR re: Long url's

Have you tried pasting long URL but putting some extra spaces after the http://" part? I may have missed any response you made and I don't have the nerve to try it my self.

(Sat May 09 1998 19:13 - ID#26793)
Leading industrial nations agree to global banking supervision.

(Sat May 09 1998 19:14 - ID#31868)
aurator - 18:54 - excellent...I say this not as a slur against zeke. No, not at all, but
rather to commend aurator in expressing something I whole heartedly agree with...gulp to more...gulp...


(Sat May 09 1998 19:16 - ID#342315)
6pak re your 18:50
That should take your breath away. I guess you've been thru the Long Winter Count and you must have gone to the CEREMONY. I have a Lakota friend, Chuck Ross. He was supt of ed. at Ft. Yates a while back. If you have a contact on him I would appreciate it. Do you know the Hopi story about growing a full corn crop in 24 hrs in the desert? We have to go further, thanx, charlie

(Sat May 09 1998 19:17 - ID#253153)
We are moving into a deflationary depression of massive proportions
All the capital 's in ( Asia, Africa, Australia, South America, Eastern Europe, Russia and soon in North America and Western Europe ) is all used up.Those stories of tremendous liquidity rebuilding come from statistics that is based on profit and loss statements of companies that are using historic cost accounting, not current cost accounting. The
camelot professors never understood that historic cost accounting swallows capital at a leveraged rate.
How bad is it going to be ? This deflationary depression will much worse
than the '30s. In the '30s thousands of banks went bankrupt but those were mostly small country banks . There weren't any liquidity problems with the big banks. Today, the big banks are overextended in their loans
to the rest of the world. When a country like Indonesia or any other country defaults on it's public and private obligations there will be a liquidity crisis of unprecedented proportions .This day is near. When the financial panic occurs everyone will be seeking safety for their money.

(Sat May 09 1998 19:22 - ID#307271)
"But you gave the Nazirites wine to drink, And commanded the prophets saying, 'Do not prophesy!'

(Sat May 09 1998 19:28 - ID#307271)
powerful minds
And the LORD God commanded the man, saying, "Of every tree of the garden you may freely eat; but of the tree of the knowledge of good and evil you shall not eat, for in the day that you eat of it you shall surely die."

(Sat May 09 1998 19:39 - ID#307271)
zeke (powerful minds) ID#307271:
According to the Virginia Magazine of History and Biography, the epitaph reads:

*Here lies the remains of Anthony Martin, Born the 26th day of September 1737 and departed this life the 3rd day of June, 1805, aged 67 years, 8 months and 7 days.

Remember me as you pass by,
As you are now, so once was I.
As I am now you soon must be,
Prepare for death and follow me.

FWIw.........Take Care

(Sat May 09 1998 19:43 - ID#258142)
ECB - Duisenberg
Here is my partial translation of official Dutch position regarding Duisenberg - Trichet deal.
"Mr. Duisenberg is appointed for the period of eight years in accordance with [Maastricht] Treaty. Personal statement of Mr. Duisenberg, that he, considering his age [62 - D] do not want to serve complete period does not change this fact. Mr. Duisenberg pointed out, that he will be in charge at least until euro currency will be brought into circulation [cash - D] and all national currencies will be excluded of circulation [June 2002 according plan - D].
Moment of resignation can be defined by him and only him. Statement of Mr. Duisenberg gives no basis for any exact date of his resignation."

(Sat May 09 1998 19:45 - ID#307271)
"And do not fear those who kill the body but cannot kill the soul. But rather fear Him who is able to destroy both soul and body in hell."

(Sat May 09 1998 19:45 - ID#254112)
@6pak: I loved to read your post from 18:50
I was completely amazed how you explained the origin of the word "Indio".
Today I was thinking about the culture of the Indios and their attitude towards gold. Because I thought it might be valuable for all of us here at kitco to consider the different attitudes of different cultures towards gold.

I want to encourage you in your attitude not to listen to the "judeao-christian" cuture and its brutal suppression of peoples and cutures worldwide. But that doesn't mean that I do not respect the beliefs of those who identify with this culture and happen to be honest people.

You should also know that Christianity was imposed on many European peoples by force. Over many centuries Christian priests and lawyers have killed hindreds of thousands of woman and burnt them as witches. They have also killed thousands of non-beliefers who were faithful to the beliefs of their ancesters.

I see in you an ally in our struggle for freedom.

Namaste! I honor the devine within you!

Alberich the Dwarf

(Sat May 09 1998 19:50 - ID#307271)
"And I say to you, My friends, do not be afraid of those who kill the body, and after that have no more that they can do.
But I will show you whom you should fear: Fear Him who, after He has killed, has power to cast into hell; yes, I say to you, fear Him!"

(Sat May 09 1998 19:51 - ID#335190)
chas @
Sorry chas. I am in Canada.
Long Winter Count. I am on a journey, as we all are.

" I have a Lakota friend, Chuck Ross." He must be special, as you likely are. Friends, are important, I hope you can make contact, and continue your friendship.

Yes, we must continue to discover. ( go further )
Thanks for you interest, and comments.

Take Care.

(Sat May 09 1998 19:54 - ID#255284)
There are many paths...........
zeke 19:28
Perhaps. Maybe the first hero merely slayed the crocodile that kept the waters and the land in solution with his swimming. Upon the crocodile's death, the land and the seas separated.

Perhaps a strange life-infected meteorite landed on our world?

Or perhaps Kupe fished the world out of the sea, standing on the south island of New Zealand with a special hook?

Or perhaps this universe is 4 billion years old?

Perhaps you know the story of how the ( pink ) elephant got its trunk?

Many of humanity's "myths" have their germs of truth. That is why they were so readily passed down the generations before the written word. It is doubtful whether any legend/fable/myth shines more than partial light on the reality of this quite large universe thingee and humanity's part in't ...

(Sat May 09 1998 20:00 - ID#342315)
Yeah, he's special and you must be. Keep on the journey and in good spirit. Thanx alot, Charlie

(Sat May 09 1998 20:00 - ID#307271)
Pilate therefore said to Him, "Are You a king then?" Jesus answered, "You say rightly that I am a king. For this cause I was born, and for this cause I have come into the world, that I should bear witness to the truth. Everyone who is of the truth hears My voice."
Pilate said to Him, "What is truth?" And when he had said this, he went out again to the Jews, and said to them, "I find no fault in Him at all.
Adulterers and adulteresses! Do you not know that friendship with the world is enmity with God? Whoever therefore wants to be a friend of the world makes himself an enemy of God.

(Sat May 09 1998 20:01 - ID#227238)
Aurator: I know it's a laid back, go with the flow Sat. but, you are being far too gentle. Sterner stuff is needed, IMO.

(Sat May 09 1998 20:01 - ID#335190)
ALBERICH__A @ 19:45
I see in you an ally in our struggle for freedom.
Namaste! I honor the devine within you!
Alberich the Dwarf
Thanks........Take Care

(Sat May 09 1998 20:03 - ID#288369)
@Aurator..........I humbly submit that I don't know...........
How the pink elephant came about a trunk. not a

ZEKE....go back to your temple that you threw us out of.....for THEY trust and need you.

(Sat May 09 1998 20:10 - ID#307271)
Yes, They threw Me from the Temple before the holocaust.
But Jesus, turning to them, said, "Daughters of Jerusalem, do not weep for Me, but weep for yourselves and for your children.

"For indeed the days are coming in which they will say, 'Blessed are the barren, wombs that never bore, and breasts which never nursed!'

"Then they will begin 'to say to the mountains, "Fall on us!" and to the hills, "Cover us!"'

"For if they do these things in the green wood, what will be done in the dry?" And the dry wood is coming...

(Sat May 09 1998 20:11 - ID#255284)
Yup mellow indeed, only it's Sunday and Rosemary Clooney is entrancing me
You may recall Allen's post last week calling for temperate responses. I respect Allen tremendously and shall endeavour to always be more temperate in my responses. However, zeke has been busy digging a bigger hole for himself. He needs no pushing.

It's a Rudi Kipling "Just So" story, aligators and elephants. I shall go looking... the pink artificial colouring is an 'ingroup' reference to an email conversation I am enjoying with a "fellow" kitcoite.

(Sat May 09 1998 20:23 - ID#259400)
Carl, there is an old joke about the pessimist and the optimist. Ones sees the glass as half full the other sees the glass as half empty. I have looked at the chart with no trend lines. Yes, I can see through the eyes of the optimist that gold may have bottomed on Jan 9, 1998 and all subsequent action is establishing an uptrend hopefully in a bull market. On the other hand if I put the trend lines in place I can see through the eyes of the pessimist where gold bounced off an upper trend line and is now trending down within an ongoing range. I hope and pray that the former is the case. I trade gold shares actively and am currently heavily invested in gold mutual funds. The problem is I got into this position believing that the unthinkanble would never happen. The unthinkable is a general global deflationary downward spiral. I have alway said gold was the mother of all inflation indicators. I am slowly coming to believe gold is predicting massive deflation. If that is the case I am not out of business but somewhat poorer and somewhat wiser. For gold to break out of these long term trend lines we have to have inflation. I am less certain with each passing day they can reinflate. I see China devalueing their currency. I see the rest of the asian countrys following suit to maintain the differance. And so on and on until the whole thing unwinds. At this point in time I say draw the lines and see if you see what I see.

(Sat May 09 1998 20:25 - ID#256326)
Aurator Oh Rater
Humbullus maximus and myself had a 12-14 hour marathon chat at *that* site if it please thee. Cheers and good health!

(Sat May 09 1998 20:39 - ID#288369)
@zeke......a forum for you and the barren wombed..........

(Sat May 09 1998 20:48 - ID#25255)
For My Brother

(Sat May 09 1998 20:49 - ID#257148)
thanks, it looks like I have some important reading in front of me. You and hum.. Didja catch my post here on acupuncture a spin or so ago? I think you had logged off by then, yes?

(Sat May 09 1998 20:49 - ID#93199)
Fidelity Select Gold Charts
Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious metals Charts
5 Years, 120 day, 30 day and hourly charts at:
Click on Gold Sectors

(Sat May 09 1998 21:05 - ID#341312)
Aurator, Alberich, 6Pak
Aurator-I think the judgement that the passage refers to is the hypocrisy of morally condeming people when the person doing the condeming is himself a sinner. In other words, to concentrate on perfecting yourself and to love even those who hate you. Hard words to live by. I certainly fail routinely! It's not meant excuse sin, but the focus is to hate the sin, not the sinner. I don't believe the text refers at all to closing your intellect or blindly obeying authority. Those who do run the risk of being misled by truly evil people. Which brings me to my next point to Alberich. It's precisely those kind of "christians", and I use the term *very* loosely, who burned witches at the stake, imposed their religion by force, etc. They think they are quite moral but in fact they are doing the "other guy's" work for him by turning many people against Christ. Boy, are they in for a surprise on Judgement Day! Lake of fire, anyone?
6-Pak: Well I certainly learned something-never, ever call a native American ( Canadian? ) a Marxist! It's nice to know they are despised in more than one religion and country ;- )
Oh, yeah, one more thing-silver's at $6 spot. Y2K problems start in about 10 months. BUY, BUY, BUY, BUY, BUY, BUY, BUY, BUY, BUY, BUY, BUY, BUY!

(Sat May 09 1998 21:07 - ID#335190)
Puzzle @ Supervision Plan G-8 = G-3.....* USofA & Europe & Japan
Canada's Martin sees world bank supervision plan

Canada's Finance Minister said the system will coordinate the activities of various international financial institutions like the World Bank, the IMF and the Bank for International Settlements ( BIS ) to flag potential danger signs that could lead to another Asian financial crisis.

"All of these bodies are part of the puzzle, but there is no mechanism for coordination," he said.

(Sat May 09 1998 21:16 - ID#25255)
Lemme See! Lemme See!
He who says he is in the light, and hates his brother, is in darkness until now.
He who loves his brother abides in the light, and there is no cause for stumbling in him.
But he who hates his brother is in darkness and walks in darkness, and does not know where he is going, because the darkness has blinded his eyes.

(Sat May 09 1998 21:21 - ID#256326)
Aurator ore ater/ golden pins and needles
Saw the needle stuff, ayup. Speaking of golden needles, when I was a young man and house officer I was called to emergency to attend to a Chinese gent with chest pain. In agony he was, but the EKG was completely normal, so next stop was radiology where in those days if you wanted it done, you did it. What to my wondrous eyes did appear but a needle in the man's chest. To make a very long story shorter, the needle was excised and the story extracted. The gentleman had had an important acupuncture in his groin some decades before for which he had opted, naturally, gold. The needle had escaped the view of the practitioner and had gradually migrated through the lymphatic system to the chest where a majestic cough had lodged it into a tender spot.
As you may have noticed, I am not opposed to classical acupuncture since I figure something that old must have SOMETHING going for it. But I do think that science has made a few strides forward in the past 50-100 years. But do you know? Leeches are coming back. ( Not the financial type. ) And pretty soon bleeding will surely be the norm, but only if insurance covers it!

(Sat May 09 1998 21:22 - ID#307271)
Judgement Day
Judgement Day done already come. And you missed it! But your Are There!

(Sat May 09 1998 21:24 - ID#390415)
Enjoyed your 18:50 post.

I think that somewhere in the depths of her conscience, America is beginning to grieve just a little bit over the destruction and exploitation of the American Indians.

I am making an effort to understand the thinking of the various cultures that compose our country and our world. The web site you pointed to is some help in that.

(Sat May 09 1998 21:24 - ID#263379)
Is Mr. ANOTHER Gone???
You gotta admit the POG is at a crossroad. The bears are smug, convinced that possibly a little up, maybe a little sideways, but surely down. The bulls have lots of convincing reasons why gold should skyrocket with USAGOLD, ANOTHER, and others saying up, up, and far away. You know what, only god knows!
But, then again, Mr. "ANOTHER" knew for sure, he is very convincingly cryptic. His story, plot and information was absolutely fantastic, but his timing may coincide with my old age!
I think ( hope ) we will hear from Mr. Another again. After all, sooner or perhaps a lot later he will be proven right. I just loved reading his stuff!
Whether you believe him or not, or if you were just entertained, the excitement he bestowed on KITCO vibrated throughout this site.

(Sat May 09 1998 21:25 - ID#288369)
@E Zeke............there are 665 jehovah witnesses buried in my back yard.....
Look! Lemmee see! Is that a robin-dry-breast!!!

(Sat May 09 1998 21:25 - ID#335190)
Cold War @ Vatican (business taking care of business)
Polish paper says slain papal guard commander was East German spy

WARSAW ( AP )  Former East German spy chief Markus Wolf said a Swiss Guard commander slain at the Vatican once served an East German spy, a Polish newspaper reported Saturday. The Vatican dismissed the allegation about Alois Estermann as not worthy of consideration.

The Polish tabloid Super Express said Wolf boasted in an interview Estermann had "unremitting access to the Holy Father and so did we."

(Sat May 09 1998 21:30 - ID#256326)
Aurator, I suppose
the true believer would maintain that the judicious application of a second gold needle would draw forth the first, and for want of evidence I cannot gainsay it. But I do believe it is useful for some pain management.

Gianni Dioro__A
(Sat May 09 1998 21:35 - ID#384350)
US v. UK Rates, Paradigm Shifts to Protect the Buck?
There has recently been speculation that the US may raise Interest Rates on May 19. Across the Atlantic speculation exists that UK rates have peaked and may soon be heading down. Could this be a concerted effort to attempt to salvage the Dollar.

Several prominent people have said that when the Dollar collapses, all currencies will collapse with it, save a few ( notably PM's ) . It is also suspected that central banks act together, that they toe the line.

Now Kitcoites are keenly aware that there is an orgy of Dollars out there which have nothing to do with the US economy, are backed by nothing, and could very soon be asked for redemption for foreing currency or for Precious Metals. The effects could be staggering, especially the way hot money moves from one country to the next overnight. Hyper inflation in the USofA? I wouldn't bet against it.

So we are possibly seeing an attempt to stem the flow of redemptions of USD and US debt via Higher Relative US interest rates v. UK ( currently higher ) and othere countries.

The draining of Reserves by the US Fed may also be an attempt to strengthen the dollar.

Higher Rates or Hyper-Inflation. It looks like Uncle Alan has painted himself into a corner.

(Sat May 09 1998 21:36 - ID#307271)
Tit for Tat
Disingenuous thou art, to the disingenuous thou goest. Do these people look familiar. Thus sayeth the Lord, "Discontinue the iniquities of thy youth or perish with those who go into the realm of the perverse seekers of the flesh"

(Sat May 09 1998 21:42 - ID#256326)
et enfin mon Aurator,
I have not had a chance to update my gold dates recently, but would deeply appreciate an oppotunity to view your own feelings re late June, by email or otherwise. Family and beautiful sunset call........bbml.

(Sat May 09 1998 21:48 - ID#335190)
Gold @ Tale Of Two Countries....USofA & Canada
Manifest Destiny and Western Canada1997
Book One:
Sitting Bull, the Little Bighorn and the
North-West Mounted Police Revisited

A Critical Re-evaluation of the Geopolitical Objectives of the United States Government's Northern Plains Indian Wars of the 1860s and 1870s, and their Encompassing Historical Contexts.

by Todd D. Sauv

The Civil War would provide Canada with invaluable breathing space in which to lay the groundwork for its own Confederation in 1867 and devise a solution for its massive loss of immigrants to the United States, due to the settlement of all arable farmland.3

Invoking the providence of the Biblical God of the Israelites, the infant country drew upon the Old Testament and the eighth verse of King Solomon's 72d Psalm for its name: "And He shall have dominion also from sea to sea, And from the River unto the ends of the earth."

The Treaty of Ghent, signed in 1818, officially brought to a close the War of 1812 and established the location of the international border as far west as the eastern slope of the Rocky Mountains. On the Great Plains the 49th parallel was agreed upon as the boundary. When the Oregon Dispute was finally settled in 1846, the 49th parallel was extended west over the mountains to the Pacific Ocean.

But treaties are, by long tradition, made to be broken and the United States did not prove itself deficient in keeping faith with history's most ancient traditions.

South of the border, justice had long since ceased to operate. There was no adequate equivalent to a federal police force at work, applying equal justice to whites and Indians.

There was only an alliance of the Northern Pacific Railroad, Black Hills gold mining interests and the United States government itself--all determined to force the Indians onto mostly miserable reservations, take possession of their coveted lands and push the tracks through to the Pacific coast.

Date: Sat May 09 1998 21:24.......NightWriter ( 6pak ) ID#390415:

NightWriter, You may find this site of interest.
Yes, America has/is beginning to grieve the destruction and exploitation of the first nations people.
Not "ALL" American's ( Canada/USofA ) in history did wrong doings.

Thanks for your interest......Take Care

(Sat May 09 1998 21:54 - ID#411149)
Hey RJ- I am not stupid and did not let the skunk get either
end my way. I had a complete side VIEW! GOLD IS GOIN TO THE MOON!
and that was one beautiful SKUNK.


Tally Ho

We appreciate your business!

(Sat May 09 1998 21:57 - ID#390415)
Hyperinflation is my prediction ( that is why I just got a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage ) .

One scenario:

( 1 ) Y2K gets closer and scarier.

( 2 ) People realize most of what they own is "digital": appearing on monthly laser-printed statements, intangible.

( 3 ) A global tidal wave ensues of movement away from this type of wealth that is stored in computer systems preceived as fragile.

( 4 ) A general devaluation of currency vis-a-vis goods and tangible assets, i.e, inflation.

( 5 ) Over-reaction of governments exacerbates the problem into hyperinflation.

I have not heard many voices on this forum besides mine that foresee and are preparing for hyperinflation. Thanks for the support.

(Sat May 09 1998 22:00 - ID#307271)
The Aboriginals
The Nations that serve other Gods are not shown mercy...
"When the LORD your God brings you into the land which you go to possess, and has cast out many nations before you, the Hittites and the Girgashites and the Amorites and the Canaanites and the Perizzites and the Hivites and the Jebusites, seven nations greater and mightier than you,and when the LORD your God delivers them over to you, you shall conquer them and utterly destroy them. You shall make no covenant with them nor show mercy to them. Nor shall you make marriages with them. You shall not give your daughter to their son, nor take their daughter for your son. For they will turn your sons away from following Me, to serve other gods; so the anger of the LORD will be aroused against you and destroy you suddenly.

(Sat May 09 1998 22:00 - ID#256326)
Yea verily, hyper-inflation will come. But first just itsy-bitsy inflation for a time.

(Sat May 09 1998 22:03 - ID#256326)
Do you have any info on whether the Caananites spelled it labour or labor?

(Sat May 09 1998 22:03 - ID#256326)
Do you have any info on whether the Caananites spelled it labour or labor?

(Sat May 09 1998 22:13 - ID#31868)
in the Great Reckoning - Davidson, Rees-Mogg - they said that governments
may attempt to print their way out of deflation but that would be worse than the problem they were trying to cure.

Gold and silver, personally I think that silver will surpass gold, will protect your wealth until such time as everything has been repositioned properly in terms of worth.

Y2K should add greatly to the chaos and flux that cherokee reminds us of on a constant basis, and rightly so.

A gulp to more, gulp, for chaos, and one more for, gulp, flux.

Tequila, the gold you can drink...

(Sat May 09 1998 22:20 - ID#222231)
Hey tolerant numero uno, did you swallow the tequila worm with one too many gulps? Just kidding!

The Shadow

(Sat May 09 1998 22:21 - ID#342315)
Gianni Dioro re your 21:35
Damn Gianni, I believe yo've got it. Keep this up. I can see the efforts by USG that you aretalking about. Thanx, Charlie

(Sat May 09 1998 22:23 - ID#307271)
And being found in appearance as a man, He humbled Himself and became obedient to the point of death, even the death of the cross.

Therefore God also has highly exalted Him and given Him the name which is above every name, that at the name of Jesus every knee should bow, of those in heaven, and of those on earth, and of those under the earth,

and that every tongue should confess that Jesus Christ is Lord, to the glory of God the Father.

Labour in vein all you who labour against the King.

"Come to Me, all you who labor and are heavy laden, and I will give you rest. Take My yoke upon you and learn from Me, for I am gentle and lowly in heart, and you will find rest for your souls.

For My yoke is easy and My burden is light."

(Sat May 09 1998 22:26 - ID#227290)
What's going on?
I've read today's posts back to 6:00PM but am not able to figure out what all the Bible quoting is about. Maybe I missed something.
Can you give me a quick synopsis of what the issue at hand is?
I've been in Montreal for a mining conference. So I haven't been on here lately. But I've been monitoring events. I'll have more tomorrow on the metals, but I think silver is nearing the end of its pullback, especially in time. I have an idea we'll get another rally in both gold and silver in the near future.

The Preacher

(Sat May 09 1998 22:29 - ID#342376)
Golden Needles.....
In Chinese Medicine, Gold Acupuncture needles are used for what is called "Tonification" of QI. To sum up what that means is simple-when someone is very depleted, gold needles build up a person. Silver Needles, on the other hand, are used to "Disperse" QI. Much pain in Chinese Medicine is the result of local QI not moving freely through these acupuncture channels. So Silver needles are used for pain. By the way, EVERY acupuncture point that the Chinese mapped out centuries ago, can easily be found by using any devise that measures electrical resistance. All acupuncture points have a 10 times LOWER electrical resistance than the surrounding skin. In other tests, if a very mild radiactive isotope is injected into an acupuncture point, it travels along the pathway mapped out by the Chinese. As Westerners, it is easiest to think of QI as electrical. Although there are cases of harm from Acupuncture such as the needle embedded in that Gentleman told by ( Aurator? ) There are VERY few cases of harm by Acupuncture. I once asked the company that handles my malpractice insurance about the amount of cases they handle. Of the hundreds of Acupuncturists, there was only one case of a punctured lung in ten years. It was also done by a surgeon that performed Acupuncture. Most needles are hair thin, disposable and penetrate about 1/4 of an inch, if less. While Modern Medicine has produce miracles, remember that Acupuncture stimulates the body to heal itself and that ( to me ) is a very high form of Medicine. I can also take my needles anywhere and can treat someone even if I don't speak the same language. I can read their pulse and make a treatment. Modern Medicine is extrememly reliant on technology. If disaster strikes, I can take my needles anywhere and help. By the way, I do not use Golden Needles ( sorry folks but they are too expensive. Although if the POG goes any lower? )

(Sat May 09 1998 22:30 - ID#31868)
Pete - we have an underground tank here at Cuervo Central which is filled by
truck one a month. Once in a while you can hear a giant tequilaconda fall into the tank. It takes about nine of us to capture the thing. We then trade it back to Mexico for smaller, easier on the gullet worms.

Of course we have to celebrate and have a worm festival. The worms don't like it much but the Shaman puts on a spectacular show, a good time is had by all.

Gianni Dioro__A
(Sat May 09 1998 22:35 - ID#384350)
The Isle of Sark
For those of you with $10-15 million burning a hole in your pocket, you may wish to buy a "Tenament" on the Isle of Sark. Sark is a carryover from the Feudal Times and is an island off of Guernsey in the English Channel. Sark pays a nominal fee ( 1, I believe ) each year to the Queen. Each "Tenament" ( of which there are 40 ) is around 50 acres and usually has one or several houses on them. Each tenament cannot be divided and must be sold as whole, so there isn't any tract housing. Taxation is virtually nonexistant ( although as all tax havens, it is under attack, especially in the light of offshore shell companies being based there as an address of convenience ) .

There are no cars on the island ( a few tractors ) , no streetlights, and little noise. I visited there in the winter, stayed in a Hotel where Victor Hugo stayed a few times. It was quiet and peaceful, though like the Channel Islands in the winter, it was windy, rainy, and chilly. The Hotel had 3 of its 10 rooms occupied, one by myself, one by another man, and one by a couple. We had good conversation, I guess we could relate to each other as we all decided to go to a remote, backwards ( in a good sense ) island in the middle of winter.

The Sarkees who inhabit the island are usually older, somewhat wealthy people ( not all ) . There are also quite a few young people there working in the hotels, mostly from Britain.

The Baring brothers of England ( who are very wealthy ) bought a tenament, and are building a sort of castle on it.

In the Summer months, day trippers pour onto the island I am told. It has several little coves and it looks like the beaches would be nice in Summer Months. Some people go there for a booze fest, but if you misbehave, they will kick you off the island. They may put you in the one-roomed jail until the next boat arrives.

The problem about buying a tenament is that there are only 40 of them, and as there are no Inheritance Taxes, and thus they don't come on the market very often.

Renting is a feasable alternative. One also may find a tenament owner who would let you buy or pay to build a house on HIS land, and after 99 years ( variable ) the House would belong to the Tenament holder. It's really a LT lease.

Long term leases like 99 years are called Leasehold agreements as opposed to "Freehold" which means you own outright.

BTW, Inheritance taxes in the so-called civilized world, are a way for people whose wealth is protected by foundations, to steal family farms and businesses from those people whose wealth isn't protected from taxation.

(Sat May 09 1998 22:38 - ID#307271)
Love your posts as always. "BMG will be 14 before this market is over."
Sorry Joseph ( Aramathea ) , I was carried away by the Wind of the Word. All of the Brothers know the Wind. Please continue to post your truth. My heart is always blessed by your prophesy, but please don't delude yourself as to your veracity. Though you strive for the truth, it will ellude you unless you remain in the vine.

Gianni Dioro__A
(Sat May 09 1998 22:48 - ID#384350)
Chas, It's like Dj Vu all over again
This possible attempt to protect the US Dollar reminds me of something I read about the 1920's involving the US and UK leading up to the crash of 29, blaming it on fiscal irresponsibilities and an attempt to avoid a run on Gold in England.

If anyone knows the specifics, please post. Thanks

(Sat May 09 1998 22:48 - ID#57232)
Lunar cycles
Pete: Got your post. I will add your pre-1900 data to my lunar ( more precisely sol-lunar ) tidal cycle data. Can't get to it for some time, though. It is possible that a longer than 100 year period may be helpful in deciphering patterns, but I think the idea that the tidal cycle data only predicts turning points and not direction will remain a key item. Mike Sheller said the same thing ( I'm pretty sure independently of me, and the Bradley siderograph seems to have an uncanny correlation with the Dow for a time, only to switch and have an uncanny anti-correlation for a time. Same thing here too -- and the Bradley siderograph is calculated from the conjunctions, oppositions ,etc of the planets relative to the earth. I cannot explain this, but I have seen the correlation.

I do have one more little tidbit that may interest you. First the solunar cycles show how the sun and moon affect the earth -- through tides, at least. I suspect there is more than this, but even this basic phenomenon is significant. Secondly, what about sunspots? Sunspot patterns also correlate with the markets, as per my earlier post today, as well as someone else's. Well, the sun has a liquid surface, and is subject to tidal effects by the planets. I cannot tell you for sure just exactly how the solar tides ( and sunspots ) are connected with the motions of the planets, but it suffices to say they do correlate. Ray Tomes probably has the best website and several pages devoted to this. He is a major member of the world-renownd 'Institute for Cycles Analysis'. Incidentally there are very long solar radiation cycles that probably depend on planetary motion -- the sunspot minima, such as the mini-ice age of the maunder minimum. Very bad economic times during these solar minima. Fortunately I'm pretty sure we do not need to worry about these cycles within our lifetimes.

So, we have a link between market behavior and the motions of the moon and planets using only classical ( relativistic ) gravitational physics. Nothing fancy. Again, at this point Mike Sheller would say 'I told you so' because he already knows what we just figured out.

(Sat May 09 1998 22:54 - ID#290118)
And ZEKE said unto thee:
And the LORD God commanded the man, saying, "Of every tree of the garden you may freely eat; but of the tree of the knowledge of good and evil you shall not eat, for in the day that you eat of it you shall surely die."
"When the LORD your God brings you into the land which you go to possess, and has cast out many nations before you, the Hittites and the Girgashites and the Amorites and the Canaanites and the Perizzites and the Hivites and the Jebusites, seven nations greater and mightier than you,and when the LORD your God delivers them over to you, you shall conquer them and utterly destroy them."

I say unto you...
Such hell on earth shall be the reign of THE PROPHET - persecution, torture, death and destruction to all who do not have the true faith. The chosen shall have NO TOLERANCE of any belief in any truth not written by THE PROPHET - for if not by THE PROPHET it is not truth. The tree of knowledge shall be cut down and burned lest it cast doubt on THE PROPHET and its ashes be ground into the eyes of those who seek to see what THE PROPHET prohibits them to see. I say unto you }:-$

And when is all said and done, and after all the Earth is burned to a crisp, green shoots of pine, oak and chestnut shall again sprout and THE SQUIRRELS SHALL ARISE FROM THEIR MIDDENS OF GOLD AND ACORNS AND REIGN SUPREME!

(Sat May 09 1998 22:56 - ID#300202)
What's ur point? Where's my PM's gonna be Monday. Use scripture if u will. Thanks.

Tom in Cape Breton.

(Sat May 09 1998 22:56 - ID#307271)
You know the hairy salimanders in my back yard are growing hiary moles again! Last time that happened a famous highschool quarterback commited Hari Kari. Sell all silver Maude!

(Sat May 09 1998 22:59 - ID#256326)
Gianni Diorio
The US was the last major nation to go off gold in 1933-34. It was a bit like the second shoe falling. As in.... after everyone had devalued then prices could go up proper. The weakest go first, or are pushed.
There is a very readable account of a private French bank at that time, written by the Aussie novelist, Christina Stead, "House of All Nations" which is a reference to the old name for a quality whorehouse.

(Sat May 09 1998 23:04 - ID#307271)
You Asked For It, You Got It !
The Squirrels are truly here! Grab a sheet, wrap it around you, and run for it! You have a following!

For the time will come when they will not endure sound doctrine, but according to their own desires, because they have itching ears, they will heap up for themselves teachers; and they will turn their ears away from the truth, and be turned aside to fables.

(Sat May 09 1998 23:05 - ID#290118)
Yea verily...
The Blessed World ( from post 22:54} the Squirrels shall inherit shall be one of great wealth indeed.
I say unto to you. }:-$

(Sat May 09 1998 23:07 - ID#57232)
Relevance of Sunspot, solunar cycles to Gold -- signing off!
Almost forgot! The rising sunspot period correlates strongly with rising commodity prices. Unfortunately my daily gold bullion price comparisons do not extend into the past before 1975, so my data there is not as good as the commodity price data. However, periods of rising gold prices do seem to correlate with the periods of rising sunspot data as well. Another way of looking at this is that most of us already accept a strong correlation between the price of gold, and commodity prices. Hence rising sunspot frequencies should correlate with rising gold bullion prices too -- at least till the first or second quarter of 1999.

I have not had time to correlate solunar tidal data with gold bullion prices, but expect what has been found consistently in other similar studies. The solunar data preumably predicts turning points, but not the directions or magnitudes. So our current 18.67 year solunar tidal activity maximum ( Mar-April 1998 ) should be a long-term turning point for gold, and it looks pretty good as a bottom to me. Coincidence? Maybe not.

(Sat May 09 1998 23:09 - ID#300202)
Ur sick!!!!!! Please put me in the Disney Camp. Wern't u a Christian
person for a night????

(Sat May 09 1998 23:11 - ID#57232)
Your posts are uninterpretable
zeke: No offense, but I see no information content in your posts. I would suggest you desist until whatever is happening to you is over.

(Sat May 09 1998 23:13 - ID#307271)
I bow my head: Cut thee.
"And the merchants of the earth will weep and mourn over her, for no one buys their merchandise anymore: merchandise of gold and silver, precious stones and pearls, fine linen and purple, silk and scarlet, every kind of citron wood, every kind of object of ivory, every kind of object of most precious wood, bronze, iron, and marble; and cinnamon and incense, fragrant oil and frankincense, wine and oil, fine flour and wheat, cattle and sheep, horses and chariots, and bodies and souls of men."

(Sat May 09 1998 23:18 - ID#290118)
"For indeed the days are coming in which they will say, 'Blessed are the barren, wombs that never bore, and breasts which never nursed!"
AND FOUND THEMSELVES NEARING EXTINCTION ( unlike the prolific fun-loving squirrels chattering at them from the tree-tops )

(Sat May 09 1998 23:20 - ID#284255)
Email chatter
Are you painting today??
It was a down week for all market averages, but of course the big news was the widely anticipated Unemployment report on Friday. Job creation came in higher, and unemployment a lot lower than expected. If the Federal Reserve were going to raise rates BETWEEN FOMC meetings, this would have triggered it... and it didn't.
The reason, we believe, is the renewed deterioration in Asia and Japan. The Tokyo Nikkei is threatening to fall under the 15,000 threshold in spite of the best efforts from the Central Bank of Japan to talk it up.
Yet even the managing director of the IMF said this week that our Fed would have to tighten before the bubble gets too big. Personally, we think it's already past that stage... Friday's Wall Street Journal had a feature article on the Lifeboat Drills mutual funds are holding for when investors try to abandon ship.
On the monetary side, another reason why the Fed didn't tighten Friday is simply because the FOMC meeting is only 11 days off. A decision this monumental can wait a week and a half. In our view, it'll likely take more than just one rate hike to throw water on Wall Street's drunken parade. That's why we wouldn't rule out new highs over the near term.
Bottomline, it's still early to say the final highs are in place. But the psychology is crumbling and evidence is definitely moving in that direction. Patience ( and caution ) is the key.

ON BONDS: Denmark raised rates this week, and monetary pressure is building on Germany to do likewise. Such action would start to push U.S. bond yields up... bonds are on very fragile footing.
ON GOLD: We expected a small decline, but ECRI's Future Inflation Gauge actually came out Friday at a 4-month high. We announced last weekend that we would maintain our gold positions in spite of recent weakness. That still appears to be the best policy at this point.

(Sat May 09 1998 23:21 - ID#256326)
religions R us
I am tickled silly to be in such a religious site: christians of various hues, goldbugs, anti-vivisectionists, gun-bearing whatevers, legal historians, and even a few gold analysts. Wow!

(Sat May 09 1998 23:23 - ID#307271)
Ode To A Physicist Dying Young:
I've heard your heart-felt boasts of your expertise and I've felt for you. I know, others excelled more than you. Shroedinger and the others had a feel you just couldn't grasp. Give up your yearning for the Paradise that you lost. Seek that for which your Father made you: Go ahead , pursue the Humanities.

There is a way that seems right to a man, But its end is the way of death.

(Sat May 09 1998 23:29 - ID#290118)
For men failed to make peace with their new rulers
and thus had no gold, silver, platinum or palladium
with which to make their measly trades with each other.
The Squirrels, having little use for these superfilous metals in their New World Kingdom, buried them in the vaults of the ancient CBs.

(Sat May 09 1998 23:29 - ID#433172)
PH in La,
PH, I read your post where you speculated a safe place by boat might be. You didn't mention SE Alaska. Easy to get to from there, beautiful beyond description,safe. I came here by boat in the middle of winter,36' double ender. Ballast your boat with hard red winter wheat, if things are still cool tie up to the dock, if not there are a multitude of places to hide. So you cvan have your cake and eat it too. Aweful quiet and lonesome out of town tho.
Ive lost 20% of my investment so far, partly because of trading on the Canadian Exchanges I think. Why do I almost always have to buy at the asking price, and usually sell at the bid? There's a lot of price differential in between but that seems to be the territory of the brokers? Anyone know brokers that deal on the Canadian markets who are actually acting in the clients interest? I'm planning on getting out, I'll trade on American Exchanges. Exploration stocks are great fun but pretty curvy too. I've played a lot of poker and altho I don't know the in and outs, it seems to me the game is rigged.

(Sat May 09 1998 23:33 - ID#373403)
Money is not gold!
Federal Reserve Board
Remarks by Vice Chair Alice M. Rivlin
Before the 34th Annual Conference on Bank Structure and Competition of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
May 7, 1998

The shift to the euro clearly has strong emotional overtones for many Europeans, especially older Europeans, who feel some important part of their heritage is disappearing with the franc, the mark, and the lire. The tangibility of paper may have some emotional appeal. It's not gold, but at least you can see it, touch it, lock it up and know where it is.

(Sat May 09 1998 23:34 - ID#341189)
Indonesia article in tomorrows NYTimes, Will the Army join the protests?

JAKARTA, Indonesia -- When President Suharto boarded a flight for
Cairo here this morning, he left behind a country on the verge of a
nervous breakdown. In the last six days, Indonesia has been riven by
riots, widening student protests, a sudden increase in fuel prices and a
free-falling currency.

It is, by all accounts, the gravest political crisis Suharto has faced in his 32
years at the helm of this vast southeast Asian archipelago.

From college campuses to corporate boardrooms, Indonesians are
openly debating how long the Suharto Government can withstand the
pressures of economic dislocation and a rapidly growing political revolt.
Almost nobody believes Suharto will step down voluntarily. His decision
to attend a summit meeting of 15 third-world countries in Egypt on
Monday was seen here as a defiant show of confidence in his control of
the country.

"I hope the people of Indonesia will not sacrifice the national stability we
have achieved," Suharto said before leaving. "The security forces will take
action against whoever disturbs and ruins national stability."

To many people here, that plea seems hollow. For the first time since the
Indonesian rupiah collapsed last summer -- sending the economy into a
tailspin and students to the streets -- many here say they feel that events
have spun out of Suharto's control.

"What the Government is experiencing now is not just a loss of credibility,
but a loss of legitimacy," said Umar Juoro, an economist at the Center for
Information and Development Studies in Jakarta.

It is an extraordinary turn of events, given that the week began on a
promising note, with the International Monetary Fund's decision to release
$1 billion in emergency aid to Indonesia. The Government seized on that
news to announce that it was raising the price of fuel and electricity by as
much as 70 percent.

Coming after months of deepening economic hardship, the sudden price
increases incensed Indonesians. The students turned up the volume,
taking their placards beyond campus gates despite warnings of a military
crackdown. And they were joined for the first time by other Indonesians
-- from unemployed youths in Medan, on Sumatra, to doctors and nurses
in the capital, Jakarta.

In Medan, the mixture of economic pain and political ferment made for a
lethal cocktail. One person was killed, dozens were injured and 170
stores were looted and burned by mobs. Today, the focus shifted to
Jogjakarta and Solo, where students protests turned violent.

In Jogjakarta, one student died from head wounds after protesters
clashed with security forces on Friday evening, according to news
reports. Thousands of students battled Saturday with the police and
military forces in Jakarta and Surakarta, a city in central Java that is the
center of Indonesia's batik industry.

"Suharto cannot solve our nation's problem," said Rosmery, a lecturer in
political economy, who is organizing protests at the University of North
Sumatra in Medan and who like many Indonesians uses only one name.
"And when we analyze the problem, we find he is the problem."

Indonesia's military, which plays a powerful political role in the country, is
still regarded as loyal to Suharto. But in an effort to mollify the students,
the Defense Minister, Gen. Wiranto, assured them this week that political
reform had become part of the national agenda. Political analysts said
such a pledge was remarkable, coming from the nation's chief military

To be sure, General Wiranto does not have the same conception of
reform as the students. He believes in a gradual modification of
Indonesia's electoral system that would not occur until Suharto's term
expires in 2003. The students want a wholesale shake-up that begins with
the President's resignation.

Meanwhile, the army is not hesitating to use brute force to quell the
protests. The question that haunts military leaders and students is what the
army would do if given an order to fire on a crowd of students.

"With the movement now on all the campuses in Indonesia, it is very
difficult for the army to crack down," said Laksamana Sukardi, an adviser
to Megawati Sukarnoputri, one of Indonesia's most prominent opposition
figures. Sukardi said the economic crisis would push the army to make
common cause with the students. "Even the soldiers are affected by the
pain," he said. "Their wives are calling to ask them where the money is."

In another sign that the winds of change are gathering force, the influential
Indonesian Association of Muslim Intellectuals called for immediate
political reform. The association -- which has ties to Vice President B. J.
Habibie -- is demanding a special session of the People's Consultative
Assembly, which generally meets only once every five years to elect the
President. The last time the assembly held a special meeting, in 1966, it
led to the ouster of Suharto's predecessor, President Sukarno.

Even Indonesia's normally quiescent House of Representatives has found
its voice. On Friday, representatives called on the Government to
reconsider the fuel-price increases.

The price increases seemed all the more galling when, a few days later,
the Government confirmed that it would preserve export quotas on
plywood for three more years. The quotas helped enforce a plywood
cartel that Indonesia agreed to dismantle in February as part of its
agreement with the I.M.F.

Although the Government noted that the quotas were not explicitly
covered by the agreement, even sympathetic observers described them as
a loophole that smacked of cronyism. The plywood cartel was controlled
by Mohamad Hasan, a close friend of Suharto's who is Minister of Trade
and Industry.

"It may be legal, it may even be correct, but it just sends the wrong
signal," said James W. Castle, president of the Castle Group, which
advises American companies doing business in Indonesia.

As they considered the events of a turbulent week, 20 students in Medan
agreed that their movement had far to go before it matched the "people
power" uprising that swept out Ferdinand E. Marcos in the Philippines.
"The problem in Indonesia is that not everyone is united," said Muchtar
Efendi Harahap, a lecturer in sociology at the university in Medan.

After the random violence in Medan this week, the students are also
mindful of the risks in social upheaval. By some estimates, 400,000
Indonesians were killed in the transition from Sukarno to Suharto in
1965-66. As the attacks on ethnic Chinese in Medan demonstrate,
political turmoil can be a pretext for racially motivated violence.

Still, the students say they believe that they passed a crucial milestone this
week in generating broad support for change. And they recite a saying
that has become common on Indonesia's campuses.

"If 1,000 people are protesting," the saying goes, "the army will kill them
all. If 5,000 people are protesting, the army will leave them alone. If more
than 5,000 people are protesting, the army will join them."

(Sat May 09 1998 23:37 - ID#57232)
I am no Schrodinger, or Einstein
zeke: You are right. But I am sharing knowledge with others in the hope that they will benefit. In fact I do not wish credit for my work, because I think the 'New Physics' will not be born unless the knowledge is freely available. To many false starts.

You should think about what you are doing right now, and ask yourself who you are talking to? Others, or just yourself?

(Sat May 09 1998 23:38 - ID#256326)
I Corruscations 2:4-5/1998
He that loseth loseth, yea, and he that gaineth gaineth.

(Sat May 09 1998 23:43 - ID#341312)
Aurophile-you forgot the Y2K gloom n doomers, conspiracy theorists, libertarians, astrologers and ex-Russians living in RSA. My theory is someone tilted the web and most of the brilliantly unhinged minds rolled here. No wonder I love this place! I've got the unhinged part down. Still working on the brilliant, though. Gotta go. Jimmy Page is on SNL.

(Sat May 09 1998 23:43 - ID#307271)
Very well. I have heard you. Hopefully, you have heard me ( Him ) .


(Sat May 09 1998 23:44 - ID#284255)
Zeke - ode to words

Dear God

I'm sick of words
Its words, words and words again
Piled up and pressed down
And running over.
We listen meekly
Longing for comfort.
Words are useless
Love is the only remedy.

Spirit hungers after spirit
Dear God. Be Thou with me.

(Sat May 09 1998 23:44 - ID#57232)
Word soup
aurophile: I suspect that these words of weakly linked logic suggest a diagnosis -- am I right?

(Sat May 09 1998 23:45 - ID#256326)
Yea verily, there was a mighty tilt in the land....

(Sat May 09 1998 23:46 - ID#57232)
Message received: Goodnite all!
zeke: Thank you for returning to phrases that can be understood.

(Sat May 09 1998 23:46 - ID#290118)
Europe is too thickly planted with kingdoms to be long at peace

Gianni Dioro__A
(Sat May 09 1998 23:54 - ID#384350)
Donald, Aurator, Korean Collapse
There was so much propaganda in that Fortune article.

They say it was inefficient Chaebols that caused the collapse and cited their low productivity.

Productivity is largely a function of wage costs. If you can pay slave labor wages with low employer tax contributions, then why put expensive productivity adding machinery behind each worker? The US has higher employment costs and thus higher productivity. Germany has higher labor costs and thus higher productivity than the US.

Currency collapse happened because Asians hooked on leverage ( borrowing ) found US Dollar loans at lower interest rates, and since their currency was "pegged" to the US Dollar, they thought there was no currency risk involved.

So there was massive borrowing in Dollars mostly in short term loans. Add to the matter that Korea and many other nations were running current account deficits, Asian nations were ducks on a pond for speculators.

Speculators borrowed Won and sold them for dollars. Banks called in ( or didn't renew ) Dollar loans, and these Koreans ( and other countries ) made a mad dash to get US Dollars which they couldn't get enough of, and their currency snapped.

Now these Chaebols facing 30% interest rates don't have a lot of choice. Western corporations are chomping at the bit to buy Asian industry at firesale prices and the IMF is hellbent on making it happen.

(Sat May 09 1998 23:56 - ID#290118)
"In order to gain a clear and just idea of the design and end of government, let us suppose a small number of persons settled in some sequestered part of the earth, unconnected with the rest, they will then represent the first peopling of any country, or of the world. In this state of natural liberty, society will be their first thought. A thousand motives will excite them thereto, the strength of one man is so unequal to his wants, and his mind so unfitted for perpetual solitude, that he is soon obliged to seek assistance and relief of another, who in his turn requires the same. Four or five united would be able to raise a tolerable dwelling in the midst of a wilderness, but one man might labour out the common period of life without accomplishing any thing; when he had felled his timber he could not remove it, nor erect it after it was removed; hunger in the mean time would urge him from his work, and every different want call him a different way. Disease, nay even misfortune would be death, for though neither might be mortal, yet either would disable him from living, and reduce him to a state in which he might rather be said to perish than to die.

This necessity, like a gravitating power, would soon form our newly arrived emigrants into society, the reciprocal blessing of which, would supersede, and render the obligations of law and government unnecessary while they remained perfectly just to each other; but as nothing but heaven is impregnable to vice, it will unavoidably happen, that in proportion as they surmount the first difficulties of emigration, which bound them together in a common cause, they will begin to relax in their duty and attachment to each other; and this remissness, will point out the necessity, of establishing some form of government to supply the defect of moral virtue."