Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

Kitco Inc. does not exercise any editorial control over the content of this discussion group and therefore does not necessarily endorse any statements that are made or assert the truthfulness or reliability of the information provided.

(Wed May 20 1998 00:04 - ID#335190)
Goldbug @ 22:37
Thanks for your comments. Yes, Survival is paramount.

The material I posted was from a pamphlet, written by a USofA, MBA, past corporate member of the Suit order.

Fear: Is a very positive and powerful emotion, fear is not just a negative emotion. ( Fight or Flight )

Golden Rule - Ten commandments is a code of conduct for a community/nation so that citizen's can co-exist. No need for me to latch onto those that believe. Consideration and Compassion...Is considered to be a weakness, by those that are opportunists. I have never competed with an opportunist, they are cowards. Idealist, I am not.

Good Luck to you, Thanks. Take Care.

EJ: Gold related post ? Labour=Value and Gold=Value. What can I say. Gold can not exist, without, the labour content of extraction. Labour/Citizen can not purchase gold, unless they have savings. Unemployment is a killer. Corporate takeovers are not good for citizen's. Corporation's are about to have a bowel movement, pressure build up, caused by those suit's within the corporation. How was that?
Take Care.

(Wed May 20 1998 00:09 - ID#393224)
G'day PJR
The XAU looks just as good on a linear scale as on a log scale. Still a low-risk entry price, with appropriate stops in high 70's. Cheers, N.$xau.x&time_period=Daily&bars=356?wstype=480%20x%20360%20GIF&chart_type=Close%20Only&colors=Black%25%252C%20Green%20on%20Transparent&vol=Volume&study=Exponential%20moving%20average&ma_period=50&key=&mode=Daily

(Wed May 20 1998 00:09 - ID#27341)
Skellurup ind.??????

(Wed May 20 1998 00:14 - ID#255217)
Thanks. I was not aware of technical analysis predicting the recent silver decline. I am not a techie; not that I eschew T.A.; I just never acquired the expertise. My meager knowledge is limited to chart patterns. E.W., Kondratieff, etc. were always a little too esoteric. Looks like I shoulda done a little study in those areas. I guess it's never too late, but not being a trader, I figured I could muddle through. Knowledge never hurts, though, even when you think you will never need it.

As a parting note, if T. A. predicted this fall, what does it predict as the turnaround level and potential time frame? I'll pass it along to Warren. Now that I think about it, he probably has his own techies.

(Wed May 20 1998 00:18 - ID#43460)
Goldbugs and Irish gold
ChasAbar__A, skinny and all: ( Try to read this with a California accent ) You know why goldbugs are never blonde? Really? How dumb do you want them to be? ( %-^@ )

Ok. this is what I found in my search of irish+gold. Some nice pics and a currency converter:

Celtic Jewelry and Art sites ( no, I don't get any kickback for posting them! )

currency converter

(Wed May 20 1998 00:21 - ID#28994)
My fault... New Zealand is part of Down Under....Isn't it.

(Wed May 20 1998 00:21 - ID#404246)
mozel (@Y2K The National Security)

If DOD just keeps saying No Problem, the bluff is as good as having everything up and running. It's Mutual Assured Uncertainty.


I love it. Best laugh I've had this week. You have saved the world. We now have a buzz word as powerful as MAD. Look what that did. Drove us all crazy best I can tell.

I hope that on Jan. 1, 2000 I am sitting in my foxhole feeling real stupid becasue you were right.

Until then I'm staying paranoid.

(Wed May 20 1998 00:27 - ID#247190)
PAX re:Galaxy 4
Can you please tell me where you got the info on Gal4? I work for an independent Television Network who is on Gal4 and we went off the air tonite just as you said, but this is the 1st news I've heard as to why?
Thanks in advance.

(Wed May 20 1998 00:28 - ID#373284)
Somebody posted a bunch of links earlier with a bunch of other links - interesting
reading to say the least.

(Wed May 20 1998 00:28 - ID#27341)
ABC radio, sounds like Soeharto will not last out the day, pressure coming from all directsions.

(Wed May 20 1998 00:29 - ID#373284)
I just tested the link and in order to get it you will have to switch to full text mode in
order not have the error message come up. Namaste'

(Wed May 20 1998 00:34 - ID#27341)
ANZACs, yep, i,ll go along with that.

(Wed May 20 1998 00:36 - ID#256250)
Well, eligible golds stocks are steadily growing. Price is dropping and they are unloading to make sure they get their $10-20 per ounce profit???

It is really hard to tell in this paper gold world. only 5 contracts have been scheduled for delivery in all of May. Big difference from April. I wish there was a way to tell how last mont's delivery were going.

Copper stocks are continuing their fall. -1,788 shorts tons removed from their stocks today.

And palladium is a mad house.



warehouse stocks:
-- GOLD ( Quoted in Troy Ounce )
Prev. Received Net. Adjust- Total
Total Withdrawn Chg. ment Today

636,926 0 0 0 0 636,926
246,261 70,347 0 70,347 0 316,608
883,187 70,347 0 70,347 0 953,534


Gold 23,000
Silver 15,000
H.G. Copper 10,000

Warehouse stocks:

Copper - high-grade cathodes ( in short tons )
point previous received withdrawn net chg total

Total 95,235 137 1,925 -1,788 93,447


They see only down, but the price is falling along with copper stocks??? The paper market confuses all, I think.


FWN: 133350 GMT

Closing N.Y. Copper: Rebounds From `oversold'

sharply higher here today, yet only recovered a portion
of Monday's steep sell off.
Traders and analysts said there weren't any fresh
fundamental developments to support the metal, so they
viewed the move largely as a correction from recent
July copper futures tumbled 4.6 cents Monday as part of
a recent decline from the May 5 high of 85.50 cents down to
Monday's life-of-contract low of 73.50 cents.
Today, however, the July futures added back 1.85 cents
to settle at 75.60 cents.
"I haven't seen too much ( to support copper ) today
other than maybe the market being oversold in terms of the
drop that it has had recently," said Richard Padron,
director of research at Concorde Trading Group.
"Even the housing starts were not that strong," he
continued. The government reported this morning that U.S.
housing starts dipped 2.3% in April to an annual rate of
1.538 million.
Meanwhile, concern about Asian economies--particularly
amid the political uncertainty in riot-torn Indonesia--is
weighing on sentiment, he added.
A trader echoed he is not aware of any fresh news that
would account for today's gains, thus he attributed the rise
to a correction via short covering.
"Ultimately, we feel the direction of the market is
going to be down. But today seems to be one of those short-
term corrections for the moment."
Padron noted, however, that if July copper can hold 72
cents, it may have a chance to start working back to the
"I think as long as we hold 72 cents, that will be very
supportive so it can get its legs back underneath itself and
wait for good news to develop," he said.
Resistance was put at 78 cents.
London Metal Exchange authorities reported this morning
that warehouse stocks of copper fell 750 metric tons,
leaving the total at 272,150.
Three-months copper in London gained $22 to $1,678.50.

Midsession N.Y. Copper: Rebounds Higher on Short

bounce from short covering in thin trading conditions
this morning, sources here said.
The move comes after a steep technically oriented
decline Monday in which funds were reportedly sellers,
pushing July copper 4.6 cents lower for the session. Today,
however, the July contract has recovered nearly 1 1/2 cents
of those losses.
"We have a little short covering this morning more than
anything else," said one trader.
"We've really had a 10- to 12-cent move on the downside
( over the last couple of weeks ) without any sort of
correction. So after yesterday's activity, with stocks down
in London, it looks like a few players are buying back a few
shorts quietly here.
"The volumes haven't been all that aggressive.
"Ultimately, we feel the direction of the market is
going to be down. But today seems to be one of those short-
term corrections for the moment.
"There is no news out there that would suggest the
market should be higher," the trader said.
Three-months copper in London is up $17 at
London Metal Exchange authorities reported this morning
warehouse stocks of copper fell 750 metric tons, leaving the
total at 272,150.
This comes after a decline of 929 short tons was
reported in COMEX stocks Monday, following the close of pit
trade, leaving the total there at 95,235 short tons.
Support for July copper futures is seen at Monday's
life-of-contract low of 73.50 cents, with resistance at
76.50 cents.
Support for three-months metal in London has been
pegged at $1,620, with resistance at $1,690.

-- ( Quoted in Troy Ounce )
Net. Adjust- Total
Chg. ment Today

0 0 37,423,627
-96,504 0 53,425,356
-96,504 0 90,848,983

Strong Demand Reduced Silver Bullion Stocks for
9th Consec. Yr

ninth year running in 1997, as supplies failed to keep pace
with record demand, according to the Silver Institute.
In a detailed study released today, the Institute
estimated 1997 global mine production at 512.6 million
ounces--up from 489.0 million in 1996 and the highest level
since 1990's record 520.4 million ounces.
Top producer Mexico mined 86.2 million ounces last year
( 81.3 million ounces in 1996 ) , followed by Peru with 66.8
million ( 63.3 million ounces ) and the USA 53.3 million
ounces ( 50.5 million ounces ) , according to the Institute.
Looking ahead, the report foresaw continuing mine
production growth worldwide. Allowing for new projects under
construction and those likely to proceed to the development
stage, it saw potential for cumulative new capacity "close
to" 100 million ounces over the next five years.
The Institute estimates supplies from newly-mined
metal, scrap, official sector sales and hedging fell 129.6
million ounces short of fabrication demand in 1997, which
was boosted by rising European and U.S. use.
Indian silver demand is estimated to have hit a new
record high last year, but its imports fell slightly at
112.4 million ounces ( 113.5 million in 1996 ) .
Global demand for silver last year was estimated by the
Institute at 863.4 million ounces ( 814.0 million in 1996 ) .
"Without doubt, the star performer in 1997 was the
electrical and electronics sector, which was up by 12% year-
on-year," according to the report, prepared for the
Institute by London-based bullion market specialist,
Consolidated Gold Fields Mineral Services.
The report shows photographic use also rose in 1997,
despite the threat from digital imaging. This converts
images into electronic form without using silver halide.
The Institute put the United States as the biggest user
of silver for fabricated products in 1996--167.0 million
ounces, compared to 156.3 million in 1996. Second was India
with a record high of 131.0 million ( 128.4 million in 1996 ) .
The Institute's summary of the silver market balance in
1996 and 1997 ( in million ounces ) is as follows:

Supply 1996 1997
Mine production 489.0 512.6
Net official sales 25.1 3.8
Old silver scrap 150.6 152.5
Hedging - 64.9
Implied disinvestment 161.4 129.6
Total supply 826.2 863.4
Demand Fabrication total 814.0 863.4
Industrial 301.1 323.5
Photography 224.5 232.3
Jewelry/silverware 266.1 280.2
Official coins 22.3 27.4
Hedging 12.2 -
Total demand 826.2 863.4
Silver price ( London US$/ounces ) 5.199 4.897*
* Lowest average since 1993.


And of course, we have palladium. What a mess this market is. Nothing but paper trading???? Look at the daily price jumps and falls, wow is this a sign of things to come for gold???


NYMEX to Increase Margins on May & June '98
Palladium Futures

( NYMEX ) will raise the outright and spread margin rates
on its May and June 1998 palladium futures contracts as of
the close of business Wednesday, according to a NYMEX press
The outright margins will be raised to $34,000 from
$26,000 for clearing members; to $37,400 from $28,600 for
members; and to $45,900 from $35,100 for customers, the
exchange stated.
For clearing members, the spread margin rates will be
raised to $29,500 from $24,000 for a spread involving the
spot month; to $29,300 from $23,800 for one involving the
second month; and remain at $300 for back-month spreads.
Member rates will be increased to $32,450 from $26,400 for a
spot-month spread; to $32,230 from $26,180 for a spread
including the second month; and remain at $330 for back-
month spreads. Customer rates will be increased to $39,825
from $32,400 for a spot-month spread; to $39,555 from
$32,130 for a spread which includes the second month; and
remain at $405 for back-month spreads, NYMEX reported.

Gold & Silver & Platinum Bug
(Wed May 20 1998 00:36 - ID#432214)
Skinny & EB
EB does have a point about buying gold in US dollars. It ticks me having to pay 440 for gold in Canadian dollars when the US price is 300....

(Wed May 20 1998 00:37 - ID#373284)
from Bloomberg online
Gold Demand Drops 55% in First Quarter on Asian Sales Update1

Gold demand more than halved early this year as people in Asia sold gold for cash after massive currency devaluations in the region, the World Gold Council said. Gold use in countries monitored by the producer-funded organization fell 55 percent to 342.1 metric tons in the three months ended March 31 from 769.2 in the year ago period, the council said in its quarterly report, ``Gold Demand Trends.''A government-sponsored gold collection campaign in South Korea and selling in Indonesia contributed to a 70 percent decline in demand to 177.8 metric tons in developing countries compared with the first quarter of 1997.

(Wed May 20 1998 00:42 - ID#287358)
We are Kitcoites, one and all. Please do not judge any of us by the
weird actions of any others. These are difficult times in many places,
and in many homes around the world. Blood is running in the streets.
Many people are in a panic. Many who aren't, probably should be.
Stress is a serious issue. From personal experience, I can tell you that
many Americans are decent people. And some whom I consider not
so decent are the way they are mostly because they believe the spin
doctors which they are constantly subjected to. Unfortunately, we
Kitcoites sometimes take out our frustration on our Kitco family. I
think we all do the best we can. I, myself, am in Ag ony right now.
And the upset is only because of a small portion of my net worth.
The silver dive for me is minimal compared to recent events' effects
on the lives of so many others, yet I am very bummed out. I am
really glad that F* has been mostly away, recently. I will be able to
tolerate a bunch of his writing, given the above thoughts. And he
loves me. That counts, too. Peace, my golden friends.

(Wed May 20 1998 00:42 - ID#267300)
gold rush

 Regardless of negative technical data pertaining to gold, owning the physical metal makes sense.

The benefits are far reaching when you consider the liquidity, durability, anonymity, and world wide recognition that this unique store of wealth offers.

Throughout time gold and silver have been an excepted form of exchange. An ounce of gold has a set value in terms of tangible goods in any culture on this planet.

Prices are now relatively low. This would seem to be an opportunity.

History has proven gold as a valid investment/store of wealth.

Although it may be entertaining to anticipate day to day price movements,

the value of gold itself must be calculated not by price alone.

Sometimes I feel like I have a stethoscope on the pulse of the nation.

There is a real growing fear out there. The thousands of people I speak

to are a good cross section of the country. Perception is 99% of reality.

This is just a rumble before the eruption. If only of a fraction of the paper assets were to sell off, this could have a profound effect on gold and silver. Even if the Y2K computer glitch is all hype, the perception of possible chaos may move the gold market. It reminds me of the gold rush...

This info is from the Bureau of Development...

'In September, 1848, the first rumors of the gold discovery began to reach New York; in October they attracted attention; in November people looked with interest for new reports; in December the news gained general credence and a great excitement arose. Preparations were made for a migration to California by somebody in nearly every town in the United States. The great body of the emigrants went either across the plains with ox or mule teams or round Cape Horn in sailing-vessels. A few took passage in the steamer by way of Panama. Not fewer than one hundred thousand men, representing in their nativity every State in the Union, went to California that year. Of these, twenty thousand crossed the continent by way of the South Pass; and nearly all of them started from the Missouri River between Independence and St. Joseph, in the month of May. They formed an army; in daytime their trains filled up the

roads for miles, and at night their camp-fires glittered in every direction about the places blessed with grass and water. The excitement continued from 1850 to 1853; emigrants continued to come by land and sea, from Europe and America, and in the last named year from China also. In 1854 the migration fell off, and since that time until the completion of the Union Pacific Railroad California received the chief accessions to her white population by the Panama steamers.

The whole world felt a beneficent influence from the great gold yield of

the Sacramento Basin. Labor rose in value, and industry was stimulated from St. Louis to Constantinople. The news, however, was not welcome to all classes. Many of the capitalists feared that gold would soon be so abundant as to be worthless, and European statesmen feared the power to be gained by the arrogant and turbulent democracy of the New World.

The author of a book entitled Notes on the Gold District, published in

London in 1853, thus speaks of the fears excited in Europe on the first greatinflux of gold from the Californian mines: "Among the many extraordinary incidents connected with the Californian discoveries was the alarm communicated to many classes and which was not confined to individuals but invaded governments. The first announcement spread alarm; but as the cargoesof gold rose from one hundred thousand dollars to one million dollars, bankersand financiers began seriously to prepare for an expected crisis. In England and the United States the panic was confined to a few; but on the Continent of Europe every government, rich or poor, thought it needful to make provision against the threatened evils. An immediate alteration in prices was looked for; money was to become so abundant that all ordinary commodities were to rise, but more especially the proportion between gold and silver was to be disturbed, some thinking that the latter might become the dearer metal. The

Governments of France, Holland, and Russia, in particular, turned their

attention to the monetary question, and in 1850 the Government of Holland

availed themselves of a law, which had not before been put in operation, to take immediate steps for selling off the gold in the Bank of Amsterdam, at what they supposed to be the highest prices, and to stock themselves with silver.'

(Wed May 20 1998 00:44 - ID#43450)
My first post
Hi folks. This is my first post for this chat group since they put in password restrictions.

With gold apparently basing here after a steep selloff from $420, does anyone care to take the view that gold has another downleg to go? I have some gold exposure and would like to increase it but need more info on downside risks ( the upside story is already well-known to all...demand exceeds supply, Euro may have copious gold backing, mines shutting down, extreme bearishness, increasing economic uncertainty, uncoverable gold loans, etc ) .

Any responses appreciated. Many thanks.

(Wed May 20 1998 00:46 - ID#28994)
Gold silver plat bug
Exacly......Gold is a hell of a price if you don't live in the good old U.S.A.

(Wed May 20 1998 00:46 - ID#225283)
lost birds aka"comsats"

Has anyone heard about hughes "lost birds"....

Apparently one or more communications sats were "lost" a few hours ago and many Drs etc. that depend upon receiving data via HUGHES communication links are s.o.l...

Anybody know of a wire story about this yet or an explanation?

On a different note...Does anyone here have any experience dealing with MONEX??

(Wed May 20 1998 00:47 - ID#253228)
posted these earlier but had trouble pulling them up myself so am reposting to test

(Wed May 20 1998 00:52 - ID#27341)
I live in the Lucky Country, I long for the day I live on the Lucky Planet

(Wed May 20 1998 00:56 - ID#233199)
@NICK 00:09 Danm those long URL's
They mess up the display for many of us!

Please break them ( after the " http://" for example )

Have mercy the rest of us.

(Wed May 20 1998 00:57 - ID#373284)
I have been searching and found nothing. Still looking for any word on it.

(Wed May 20 1998 00:58 - ID#373284)
Just caught a blurb on the radio, something went down, 40,000,000 pagers are not functioning and then I missed the rest.

(Wed May 20 1998 00:59 - ID#33024)
Gold: Elliot Waves Analysis

(Wed May 20 1998 01:02 - ID#225283)
Test 1234567777777777

(Wed May 20 1998 01:04 - ID#27341)
ABC radio, some army personal are supporting the students in thier call for Soeharto to stand down.

(Wed May 20 1998 01:07 - ID#267300)
private investor
I've got info regarding your requests.

(Wed May 20 1998 01:09 - ID#225283)

I'm still looking also ...could be a HUGE hughes problem...skytel...pagenet....etc are all reported to have "gone down"...local newscasts in Florida USA are reporting outage for all pagers statewide reliant upon the malfunctioning bird.

(Wed May 20 1998 01:11 - ID#373284)
Still a lookin!?!?!?!

(Wed May 20 1998 01:11 - ID#225283)

Please enlighten me!

(Wed May 20 1998 01:12 - ID#153102)
@Tolerant1 Wonder if the Chinese did it to the sat as a test & demo ?

(Wed May 20 1998 01:18 - ID#290118)
Tolerant1 - Thank you for highlighting the following URL from my humble submission to the group.

The contents are testimony to a U.S.Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee and includes lots and lots of information that - if are willing to share to special friends - should be printed out as "Introduction to Y2K 101"

1.electrical power systems,
5.retail and wholesale distribution, and banking,
7.government services and administration ( including taxation ) ,
8.military defense, and trade.
In other words, the Y2K virus has infected all the vital organs of our global body. It must be removed from all of them. A failure in any one system could corrupt other systems. Most obvious would be a serious disruption in the supply of electricity. The Year 2000 Problem will be a non-event only if the global network is fixed 100%. Undoubtedly, much will be fixed in time. But there is no doubt that some significant fraction will not be ready in time. Indeed, most so-called embedded microchip systems will be stress tested for the first time under real world conditions starting at midnight on New Year's Eve 2000.

(Wed May 20 1998 01:20 - ID#225283)
Mexican Bank Failures

Does anybody know which Mex banks will be forced to close US operations and may be forced to fail for their part in money laundry services in LA...operation CASABLANCA?

(Wed May 20 1998 01:21 - ID#287358)
Am not sure what a California accent sounds like. You mean like
"howwwdy, parrrrdner. Say, that there is a miiighty-fiiiine lookin' hat
you're wearin'.

True story. A few years ago, I lived in California and was visited by a
friend from China. We took pictures of him on a horse, and that was
the highlight of his vacation. In parting, I wanted to give him a cowboy
hat, but he said "no thanks. Label says made in China. My friends would laugh. "

Of all the countries I've been in so far, NZ is my favorite.

Maybe will live there one day.

(Wed May 20 1998 01:22 - ID#388209)
Preacher - APH- Nick - By what sign shall we know it is time to pull thy pin on thy HOLY HANDGRENADE
I am not a trader, but the notion of jumping out of Au or Ag stocks here is to lose nerve before the last hand is revealed. I can't stand the notion of commission expense for the "old in out, in out". I'd rather hedge with XAU puts, say put up another 10 % of my portfolio in 78s or so & sit tight from there. Based on general views taht we are at a critical point wed.Thru friday,it's either a recovery or downward sing & I prefer to take prophylactic measures if we continue to stall.

Any thoughts on appropriate hedge & if so what is the best sign to make this move & what is the next solid base of support ?

I know this is not askig much, but what are your DEEP THOUGHTS ?


Thanhs for your comments re donner. You can't blame those for taking a flyer on Donner . It's awfully sexey just sitting there under Diamond Fields !

If the drill results went the other way, WOOOSH, it would have been heard around the world. Maybe now is the time to buy, NO ?



(Wed May 20 1998 01:22 - ID#153102)
That looks like a lot of heavy reading. I think I'll just wait for the movie. Should be released before very long now.

(Wed May 20 1998 01:25 - ID#267300)
private investor, specifics?

(Wed May 20 1998 01:31 - ID#373284)
mozel - good grief...who knows, the truth is stranger than fiction for sure...
squirrel - yes indeedy, that was an excellent find. I have already run out a few copies for people I know who are interested in getting more information. Most do not care, but there are several that truly wish to know what they can prepare for in order to provide as best they can for their families.


(Wed May 20 1998 01:33 - ID#255151)
For Y2K Pessimists

Here is a page from the Rocky Mountain Survival Group, not specifically about Y2K, but relevant if the worst happens--

(Wed May 20 1998 01:34 - ID#255151)

Rocky Mountain Survival Group

(Wed May 20 1998 01:36 - ID#388209)
Preacher & Nick - ALL PMS are down significantly on Kitco !
Does this portend time to reach for GOLDEN XAU PUT PARACHUTE ?
I remain,



(Wed May 20 1998 01:38 - ID#287358)
Ok, so the Lucky Country is Australia. I've never been there, but
I have great friends there, and I buy straline opals. I don't know whether
to mount finished pieces in gold or platinum. I just keep buying. I
recently mounted some small gold nuggets near the bottom end of my
didgery-doo. I can't play it, but it sure looks cool. I traded a Maple Leaf
for it, in Arizona a few months back.

(Wed May 20 1998 01:39 - ID#373284)
Auric - great site - gulp to ya...
All - nite - Namaste'

(Wed May 20 1998 01:40 - ID#227290)
Newtron & Pulling the Pin & Donner
If gold convincingly breaks its 4-month uptrend, then I see little standing in its way to a decline back to the $278 low. I would not be interested in riding it down.
With the stochastics on the weekly chart pointing downward, it could be a wipeout.
What I'm hoping for is a rally to $330, then a correction back down to the MAs.

Silver has broken down well below both its MAs and the uptrend that was in place has been shattered. The first order of business for silver is to make it back over that uptrend line, which is around $5.75 or so and climbing.

As for taking a flyer on Donner, I never criticize anyone for playing a drill hole, but what has happened here is different. Many were not playing a drill hole, they were playing the emotions of other investors. I have heard much talk about all the people that would buy Donner, and much less talk about how much Donner would hit.
That was my problem with it. Players were positively certain that a lot of other players would come in and take their paper whether Donner hit something or not.
Bishop was not like that. Those who were, got their heads handed to them. So has Bishop, but at least he was playing the drill hole. From his statements last fall, Bishop expected Donner to hit a lot more of what it found in that high-grade 1.5 meter intersection.
So far, it hasn't worked out, but there's a long way to go.
Those who played the greater fool theory have lost already, although they may get bailed out by the drill. But the odds of that are fading.

The Preacher

(Wed May 20 1998 01:44 - ID#27341)
Didgeri-doo, COOLLLLL,fantastic sound,,

(Wed May 20 1998 01:46 - ID#284255)
Have a look at what the 'geeks' are saying. - NOT FOR THE FAINT HEARTED!!!

(Wed May 20 1998 01:49 - ID#287358)
Oh, boy...

(Wed May 20 1998 01:54 - ID#255151)
Update on Satellite Disruption

Just called local hospital. NO pagers are working. About 80 to 90% of nations pagers are down. Washington Post story here

(Wed May 20 1998 01:58 - ID#255151)
Try again!

Satellite disruption story

(Wed May 20 1998 01:58 - ID#284255)
The url doesn't work can you repost it please.

(Wed May 20 1998 02:00 - ID#225283)


(Wed May 20 1998 02:04 - ID#287358)
Sometimes I wish that I didn't have such a grand imagination.

When was it that the first communication satellite disappeared?
When did Clinton ( allegedly ) give information to China? And wasn't
the deal something to do with communication satellites?
Did someone not like the spin that the American press put on the
( alleged ) arrangement with China? Are we seeing some flexing
of muscles? Is this event intended to distract Americans from
looking at the acts of their leader? Good thing none of this is

(Wed May 20 1998 02:05 - ID#27341)
Addvance warning??maybe
The OZ All Ords is a fairly rational index, I think it,s trying to tell us something ????

(Wed May 20 1998 02:06 - ID#255151)
Private Investor

Indianapolis, Indiana. My understanding is that this is nationwide, and only pagers that are ground linked are working. A little wake up call for Y2K, eh!

(Wed May 20 1998 02:10 - ID#27341)
Walked right in
Oh well

(Wed May 20 1998 02:11 - ID#284255)

(Wed May 20 1998 02:12 - ID#255151)

Yes it is scary. Just think of the many doctors, nurses, trauma teams, cardiac catheterization teams, etc. who are on call for emergencies. Many are probably unaware that their pagers are not working.

(Wed May 20 1998 02:13 - ID#257148)
Paua to the people --- and more bluff oysters....
If you come to NZ, perhaps you should bring a generator with you ;- ) Actually now the power ( paua ) crisis in receding out of memory, sounds like we in Auckland are being treated to a reprise of the water shortage of a few years ago. The city ran out of water. It did not bother me at the time, living out of the city. But dirty cars became status symbols and this ditty was on everyone's lips ( ? )
If its yellow, let it mellow
If its brown flush it down

Like many many cities, the local councils and authorities have neglected capital maintenance projects. The pipes are as old as water reticulation in the city. The lesson from our power crises was the vulnerability of the utility infrastructures. One line goes down, putting increasing load on the remainder, if there is another weak link, another line goes out. Pretty soon you're playing dominoes in the dark.

But we have the power tonite,


(Wed May 20 1998 02:18 - ID#287358)
Last post for tonight. Then I will hibernate till I need food.

If you want to see a chartist's nightmare, take a look at the Kitco
3-day Palladium chart. Truly amazing. As they say, not for the

(Wed May 20 1998 02:29 - ID#273227)
SIZE does matter
I was cheering for the big lizard the whole movie - he almost made it!

(Wed May 20 1998 02:36 - ID#290118)
Some sites with a WEALTH of info and links on Survival
Rather than use up Barts bandwidth - drop into these sites.
You could spend hours browsing and Megabytes doing downloads!
Some take a while to load because they have SO MUCH INFO in them.
a whole raft of year2000 links and info at:
water filters at:
survivalism definitions, strategies, and provisions at:

(Wed May 20 1998 03:01 - ID#284255)
Email chatter
No big surprise from the Fed's FOMC meeting - we think Asia was the overriding factor in their decision not to raise rates. Higher U.S. rates might only drain more liquidity from that crisis-stricken region... and pull it into Wall Street's financial bubble. It's truly a "no-win" situation for the Fed. But regardless, the monetary picture is still supportive.
On the technical side, however, more deterioration continues to appear. Yesterday saw the 4th most negative Nasdaq breadth of the year.
Also note today's weakness AFTER the FOMC news of no rate hike... a market that can't rally on GOOD news is often headed for trouble.
Bottomline, give it time. The evidence of a top is unfolding, just as it occasionally has in past months. yet this time, the deterioration seems to be broader and more consistent.
Talk about rigging markets, the employment numbers were a joke. Here is Bill King's version of the mysterious White House conversation between Clinton, Rubin and Greenspan: Compliments of Strategic Investment. Slick: "Golly, Starr and his team are pit bulls and they think I've got pork-chop underwear. I need strong job numbers to keep the media and public ignorant. Greenspan: I need an excuse to nudge rates, or at least talk tough to deflate the stock bubble. Rubin: Let's make up a stupendously ridiculously strong employment rate. The media loves you Willey Boy, they're always looking for an excuse to report the positive for you. Those media dolts love reporting the employment rate, so let's give them something special to crow about for us. And the number must be so ridiculous that the bond traders know it's bogus. Those mediaclown anchormen don't know enough to handle cabbies. Slick: Now I know how to tell a whopper, but this is just too much; you sure it will work? Rubin: It will work for a little while, and after all, we're just stalling for time. Greenspan: Can I now see my FBI file please?"
Global Intelligence Update
Red Alert
May 20, 1998

Foreign Naval Presence Builds Around Indonesia

Australia has carried on with scheduled joint naval and air exercises with
the Indonesian military this week, despite that country's apparent
impending collapse. Three frigates and a destroyer, approximately a third
of Australia's navy, along with three Australian F-111 bombers and a P-3
Orion reconnaissance aircraft, will be joined by a similar number of
Indonesian forces in the exercises. The exercises, titled "New Horizons,"
will take place off the Indonesian port of Surabaya. The Australian
government acknowledged the sensitive timing of the maneuvers, but stated
that the long-planned exercises, which take place within the two countries'
bilateral defense accord, were not subject to internal Indonesian events.
Nevertheless, Australia, like other countries, is arranging for the
potential evacuation of its citizens from Indonesia on chartered civilian
Boeing 747 jets.

Taiwan and Japan have also sent naval forces to Indonesian waters, though
not as part of joint exercises. Taiwan has a three ship fleet cruising
near Indonesia, for possible use in evacuating Taiwanese nationals from
Indonesia. Japan has also dispatched two patrol boats to Singapore for
possible use in evacuating Japanese nationals. The two countries have each
sent military C-130 transport aircraft and chartered civilian airliners to
Indonesia for use in evacuating their citizens.

Malaysia has placed its coastal troops on full alert and has stepped up sea
and air patrols to defend against a "possible sneak landing by Indonesians"
fleeing the country's unrest, according to the Malaysian Defense Minister,
cited in the daily "Nanyang Siang Pau" newspaper. Malaysia has deployed 10
vessels to patrol its waters against any possible mass refugee exodus.
Malaysia is also preparing for the possible evacuation of its nationals
from Indonesia by ferry or civilian airlines.

Indonesia's near and distant neighbors are concerned about more than just
the immediate security of their citizens in the country. Indonesia has a
history of externalizing its internal problems, using the nationalism card
to trump economic failure. This was especially the case under Sukarno,
whose domestic radical populism was accompanied by aggressive,
confrontational external politics, targeted in particular at New Guinea and
Malaysia. The potential for Indonesia to once again revert to aggressive,
nationalistic foreign politics has its neighbors concerned over, among
other things, the security of Indonesian waters.

Australia's naval exercises with Indonesia serve two purposes. Australia
first and foremost wants stability in Indonesia, and if that can be
accomplished through the careful return to and maintenance of the status
quo ante, then just as well. However, if Indonesia begins to collapse,
Australia is committed to making sure Indonesian instability does not spill
over into Australia's sphere of influence, which extends roughly from New
Guinea to the Cocos Islands.

Two other potential external impacts of an Indonesian collapse are of
critical concern to other countries. The first is the security of foreign
firms operating in Indonesia, particularly those in oil and other
extractive industries which would be ripe for nationalization. The second
is the security of the flow of oil from and through Indonesia. Countries
such as Taiwan and Japan, which are highly dependent on Indonesian oil and
on Middle East oil passing through the Strait of Malacca, are extremely
worried about the potential effect an Indonesian collapse could have on
their fuel supply. We note in particular the deployment of Japanese
vessels to Singapore, on the Strait. Should that oil flow become
threatened, they will be forced to turn, at least in the short term, to
Australia to keep the sea lanes open. The nearest significant US Navy
presence is the two Carrier Battle Groups committed in the Persian Gulf,
while the Seventh Fleet has a frigate and a destroyer deployed in the
Philippine Sea. The potential for a constriction in the oil supply, either
through the temporary disruption of Indonesian production or through
threats to traffic through the Strait of Malacca, while an unexpected boon
to Indonesia's cash-strapped OPEC allies, is a nightmare for already
economically unsettled Japan and other Asian nations.

(Wed May 20 1998 03:03 - ID#206358)
good day!
News 1:The INDONESIA election will held next year ( 13-24 ) jan,1999!
News 2:The iMF will delayed loan to the indo.
News 3 ( unofficail ) :Some troubles in YOGJARKARTA!Maybe downunder can confirmed?!

(Wed May 20 1998 03:14 - ID#206358)

Thnaks for the cpmment,i liked the first one!Though myself very lack of finacial knowledge,still i learn and try to understand by me feeling!Stupid chap!
Yes,today the markets looks quite,caution and rebound a bit!Even,the rates under control still the INDONESIA still a big influnced around here.Thinking that the weaker yen,tense in reminbi,thai finacial institutes took over by govt,and many more!I doubt the markets will turn to positive in the region.
Would be great if you can explain to me about:
1 ) the s&p index ( america ) influnced the market ( dow jones ect )
2 ) the index ( america ) which effect the NIKKIE the next day.
3 ) which index refered to future and option.

Your wisdom and knowledge will always in my heart!


(Wed May 20 1998 03:18 - ID#290118)
It is easy to miss lots of survival links at the
Survival Ring Web Page
after you waited through a cup of coffe or a drink of GOLDEN for it's graphics to load - scroll down to the BOTTOM HALF OF THE PAGE FOR A WEALTH OF LINKS which go a long way to showing that survivalism does not include Racists, Bombers, Gun Freaks, and others that the government and media typify survivalists as. Some of the additional sites which I recommend I include here to save you time ( but check out the above URL to access them all )
and Captain Dave's Survival center at:
which includes this advice ( and lots more )
1.Have hard copies of important paper work stored in a safe location, such as a safe in your home or a safe deposit box at a bank. Include any records that are stored in a computer, but you might need if the systems crash. These should include:
Insurance policies,
Stock certificates, bonds, recent monthly and quarterly statements from brokerage, money market, IRAs, 401Ks and other financial investments. Birth, marriage and similar certificates,
Deeds for property, leases, mortgages, etc.
Good photocopies of automobile registration, drivers license
Court orders, judgments, settlements, etc.
Credit card, bank, personal loan and similar statements
Tax returns and proof of income for the current year
Utility bills
School and educational records for you and your children

and I'll add that we should get hard copies of:
Military service records
Naturalization or Immigration records
Medical & dental records/historys such as immunizations, X-Rays, ECGs, lab reports, etc. etc.
Many of the above records may have been digitized so get hard copies now since we have little confidence in getting them later OR EVER.

(Wed May 20 1998 03:23 - ID#206358)
Indonesia Banks "technically closed" for 20/21,may!

After they called off the rallie,the JAKATAR city looks empty,quite,and only the army patrol seen in the streets!
The bank off for two days,reason"Tecnically closed"!!

(Wed May 20 1998 03:37 - ID#234201)
First post (newbie alert)

Thank you for all your posts. You are the forefront of "interesting times"

(Wed May 20 1998 03:44 - ID#413109)
Have pity
Many posters take for granted that the language and terminology, not
found in dictionaries, that they use is understood by all. IT ISN'T!!!

There is this example of imbedded chips and COBOL that is freely used,
and I took the trouble to bother a busy daughter at work and received
her caring reply-

"Embedded chips: are chips that have the commands "embedded" in them.
When I write a program my program is translated into a language that can be understood in electronic terms
( because the language it is translated into is made up of only 1's or 0's or in other terms on-off )
the chip receives these notifications and transfers the data to a server or another computer.
Embedded chips are chips that are pre-coded electronically, and have the software encoded inside them,
and therefore, do not receive commands from the computer software programs. The problem with the embedded
coded chips regarding the Y2K problem is that you can't take code and begin to edit it, you can either use it,
or throw it away. It disregards the date on the computer or any commands received from the computer
that it was previously "told" to disregard.

COBOL: a computer language, as is C, C++, Basic, Fortran, etc. Most of the programs that were written in the
seventies-eighties ( mostly in main-frame computers - those huge computers that IBM sells to banks, universities,
army, etc. ) , were written in COBOL.

Hope this helps.

Now let me get some work done - "

Hope this helps those poor folk, like myself.

(Wed May 20 1998 03:48 - ID#248180)
Bloomberg Reports
Mining News
Wed, 20 May 1998, 5:23pm EST

BN 5/20 Gold Steady, Seen Falling on Asian Sales, Silver Decline
Gold Steady, Seen Falling on Asian Sales, Silver Decline

Sydney, May 20 ( Bloomberg ) -- Gold was little changed in
Asian trading, though it may drop amid concern about the extent
of selling in the region, traders and analysts said.

The producer-funded World Gold Council said today global
demand more than halved in the January-March quarter as South
Koreans and Indonesians sold gold for cash amid an economic and
currency crisis in the region.

Gold consumption in 25 countries monitored by the council
fell 55 percent to 342.1 metric tons in the three months ended
March 31 from 769.2 tons in the same period a year earlier. Net
selling of 228 metric tons from Southeast Asia and South Korea
fueled the decline.
``Compared with the first quarter of 1997, it's a huge
contrast,'' said Tjoenhok Gan, a bullion trader at Tat Lee Bank
Ltd. in Singapore, adding it doesn't bode well for the price of
gold. ``For now, the picture is a bit icy.''

Gan also said a decline in the price of silver to a six-
month low is affecting gold. Gold and silver tend to move in

Gold for immediate delivery fell 20 cents to US$298.25 an
ounce in midday Asian trading. The price of gold touched an 18
1/2-year low of US$276.75 an ounce Jan. 13, partly on reduced
demand for fabrication and investment.

Central Banks

The nadir in gold was, though, mostly blamed on concern
about central bank sales after Australia and Argentina switched
from gold to higher-yielding assets such as U.S. government

Central banks, which hold about one-quarter of the world's
refined gold, remain a key, particularly ahead of a decision by
the planned European Central Bank on what proportion of its
assets will be gold, analysts said. The more gold, the better
for its price, they said.

Also, ``the big scary picture for gold at the moment is
what's happening to silver,'' said Richard Horton, vice-
president at Bankers Trust in Sydney.

Silver for immediate delivery fell 2 cents to US$5.1250 an
ounce, its lowest level since Nov. 18, 1997.

Silver slumped as demand slowed in India, the world's
largest importer. The Indian rupee fell to record lows against
the U.S. dollar after the government announced nuclear tests,
bringing trade and aid sanctions against India. The result was
that silver is now more expensive in local currency terms.

Horton said the demand statistics from the World Gold
Council help explain why the gold price declined so much in
January. He said he expects the first quarter may have been the
``I don't think you'll see much more divestment out of
Korea or other Asian nations,'' Horton said.

In December, the South Korea and Thailand governments
encouraged nationals to hand over their gold to raise much-
needed foreign currency. Those programs have now finished.

George Milling-Stanley, manager of market analysis at the
World Gold Council, said he is optimistic about the outlook.
``The flood of dishoarding from Asia has dried up,'' he
said in a statement. ``Early reports from the region indicate
that demand is turning strongly positive in the second
--Caroline Falls in the Sydney newsroom ( 612 ) 9777-8601 pja
 Copyright 1998, Bloomberg L.P. All Rights Reserved.

(Wed May 20 1998 03:50 - ID#284255)
Jin - go to:

Dow futures is: DJM8
SP500 futures is: SPM8
Nikkei index futures is NKM8

Is this what you want?

(Wed May 20 1998 03:56 - ID#255151)
Satellite Pager Update

Heard two separate stories. 1. Space junk damaged satellite. 2. Switch and back up switch failed. Pure speculation here on my part--Y2K test?. With that, I am shutting down for the night!

(Wed May 20 1998 03:59 - ID#413109)
OK so sue me
Talk about going out on a limb, I feel like our old contributer, now
no longer here ( Puetz ) but here's what I see.
A couple of weeks ago I said the week ending the 22nd would be the
target for a turn, now we've arrived and I think today's the day.
I expect the PMs to turn upwards starting today.
The TA shows it.
Please RJ, Oldman, Glenn, DA or any other more knowledgable poster,
please show me where what I see is not what you see.

(Wed May 20 1998 04:21 - ID#20347)
Leonid Meteor showers
Today's incident with one satellite going out might be considered a minor incident compared to the damage that may be done during the 1999 Leonid Meteor shower.

(Wed May 20 1998 04:34 - ID#252391)
Excuse me, but why do we think gold
will bottom this week ( Wed,Thurs, Fri ) ?? Bloomberg's bomb that gold demand fell 55% in the first quarter should certainly provide the impedus for a decline to new recent lows; don't know why there will be a bounce.

Gold needs some help or I think we're headed down to $280.

I know get bearish after a decline - what mystical swamy reason is there for a bottom this week. Every week there's somebody here perdicting a bottom. They come and go. We ought to have a Boot Hill Hall of Fame for such great perdictions. Farfell can be the offical keeper of the ever expanding roaster. Should be repeated here weekly so youngins to this fantancy will know better than to put faith in any body's calendar, cycle perdiction.

P.S. If we get a rally beyond $303 following this week's perdiction sign me up for a paid subscription.

(Wed May 20 1998 04:48 - ID#413109)
You're funny
Jims please email me. I like your sense of humor.

jims ( Excuse me, but why do we think gold ) ID#252391:

John Disney__A
(Wed May 20 1998 04:55 - ID#24135)
You fascinate me..
.... Reify
From TA standpoint I see slow stocastic poised for
down cross.. daily data .. also price below 30 day AMA.
On weekly basis charts looks deadly to me. Also gold
expressed SF or DM has broken down from up channel on daily
and weekly basis. Also for stirling on weekly basis.
Moreover, gold silver ratio has retraced 50 % of its
rapid decline. Thus it can now resume its fall if it
is so inclined.
From practical standpoint copper has fallen along
with nickel, wheat, oil, and silver. Asian gold demand
is said to be off 50 % in first quarter.
Im sure you're right on this but frankly, I have
a liitle trouble seeing what you see .. can
you help me on this.

(Wed May 20 1998 05:37 - ID#413109)
John Oo chandit?
Replying to your question, there's only my logic, long term work, and
gut feelings. I also said I see the NIKKEI a buy, and even repeated it
so I'm out on a limb, but I've been there before, and like a cat with
9 lives, I, like you am a survivor.

(Wed May 20 1998 05:39 - ID#411331)
@all: correct me if I'm wrong, but gold is falling only in terms of US$. From a Canadian
standpoint, the decline is marginal, as the Canadian dollar is off about
one cent vs the US$ in the past week. What happens to the price of gold
when the world finally realizes that the US$ is grossly overvalued? The
world will reevaluate the US$ when the DOW et all tanks. Until then, we grind our teeth and wait. The world is a perverse place, as it is filled by perverse human beings. What is valuable is thrown away; what is worthless is sought after. And so we wait. The powers that be have chosen the bubble over reality, mania over sanity, paper over substance,
death over life. But there is a bright side. Environmentalists gave us until the year 2000 to solve the global warming problem. Between the
coming economic collapse and YK2, we will probably achieve that deadline.

(Wed May 20 1998 05:41 - ID#230376)
@ Precious Metals.......voices.....hearing test........

Did youse say BUY me or BITE me ????????????????

(Wed May 20 1998 05:46 - ID#230376)
There is no global warming problem,rhody.........

(Wed May 20 1998 06:02 - ID#230376)

Interesting post by Millhouse "The Crash Continues"..... on golden-eagle ( sans "en" )

(Wed May 20 1998 06:06 - ID#411331)
@ Ersel: Check your sources. Rockefeller University? You can pay people to say anything these
days. Ronald Reagan paid the American Educational fraternity $400 million to prove that acid rain did not exist. And they proved it!
Of course the annual bill to Americans is $70 billion for acid rain damage, but those are paid by the public, not the polluters. The cost to
fix acid rain would be about $7 billion per year, but we continue to pay the $70 billion because of studies like the one you quoted. The global warming bill will be far higher than acid rain. But dream on, just don't buy any ocean side real estate.......

(Wed May 20 1998 06:08 - ID#230376)
BTW ........ My pager isn't working , either....

Phoned place where I collect my check and got everyone to page everyone else with the same result...veddy interrrrresting , no??? : - (

(Wed May 20 1998 06:12 - ID#393224)
Me find shiny metal in stream
Me put in deerskin
Squaw say, "white man like shiny metal"
Me go white man place
White man see me, spit on floor
Me open deerskin pouch
White man eyes get big
Me say, "how much you give?"
White man say "shiny metal worthless"
Me remember white man eyes, say "white man speak with forked tongue"
White man say "I give one bag flour"
Me say, "Me talk to spirits"
White man say, "I give ten bag flour"
Me take shiny metal, walk out door
White man yell, "I give 50 bag flour!!"
Me laugh
Me take shiny metal to teepee
Squaw say, "where flour?"
Me say, "wait for white man not spit on floor"

(Wed May 20 1998 06:17 - ID#26793)
Japanese construction firms showing heavy losses, gloomy futures.

(Wed May 20 1998 06:18 - ID#230376)

yeah...I 'm hip....just like Ford & Chevvy paying off the motor magazines to say their product is best....the truth is out there ......just think....warm up the oceans ......melt all that ice ....flood everything... It'll take ANOTHER hundred years to accomplish that and "Frankly , Scarlet , I don't give a d--- ." GO GOLD etc..............

(Wed May 20 1998 06:21 - ID#26793)
No news for today?
Yahoo is showing no stories for Wednesday, May 20th. Do they use the same bird as the pager companies?

(Wed May 20 1998 06:23 - ID#286199)
WSJ catches up on Gold analysis....
May 20, 1998
ECB Watch -2: Germany Seen Eyeing Gold's Monetary Security

Dow Jones Newswires

In late March, the Belgian central bank announced that it had sold gold over the preceding months. Though the central bank itself didn't spell out the reasons for the sale, it was widely interpreted to have been an effort to help Belgium meet the Maastricht Treaty's debt ceiling.

"It's a psychological thing," says Adolf Rosenstock, chief economist at Industrial Bank of Japan. "Germany, with its extremely turbulent currency history, has a strong need for monetary security and it believes that only gold can offer that."

Rosenstock adds that he believes France is also "quite obsessed with gold."

So far, all that is known about the ECB portfolio is what is detailed in the Maastricht Treaty. The ECB will have a call on national bank reserves of up to ECU50 billion, though that may only be ECU40 billion initially to allow room for additional entrants.

Individual national central bank contributions will be calculated according to their countries' population and what proportion their gross domestic product is of the total euro zone.

But rather than the overall amount of reserves, it's their composition that has become the markets' key focus. Analysts say that the proportion of gold within ECB reserves will be more closely watched than the proportion of foreign exchange reserves. The reason is that most economists expect the proportion, and composition, of foreign exchange
reserves to be similar to that aleady established in industrialized countries.

According to Avinash Persaud and Kevin Crisp at JP Morgan in London, the ECB coffers are likely to be made up as follows: 70% dollars, 20% gold, 5% yen and 5% in other currencies such as from the next wave of EMU
participants. These include sterling, Greek drachma and Nordic currencies, as well as Swiss francs.

Because the ECB's foreign exchange make-up is unlikely to stray far from current national portfolios, individual central banks are likely to be ready to comply without much trading in the foreign exchange markets.

On the other hand, analysts predict more commotion when the ECB Council decides on the proportion of gold.

Some market observers say the proportion of gold in the ECB portfolio may be as low as 5% and as high as 30%.

This is exactly where national preferences will come into play. France and Germany are seen preferring the upper end of the range, while the Netherlands and Belgium are seen supporting a lower gold proportion.

"Compared to the Belgians and the Dutch, the Germans and French definitely want a higher percentage," said IBJ's Rosenstock.

When Wim Duisenberg was nominated the first president of the ECB, gold prices drifted lower because Duisenberg is expected to recommend lower proportions of total ECB reserves to be held in gold.

Belgium's National Bank Governor Alfons Verplaetse said it's possible that the ECB may limit its gold holdings to 10%-15% of the total, adding that a low percentage would be a compromise "between efficiency and

Meanwhile, countries such as Spain, Portugal and Finland are seen less passionate about the gold issue. Bank of Portugal Governor Antonio de Sousa said in late April, for example, that he expects gold to make up 10%-20% of ECB reserves.

-By Uta Harnischfeger; 49-69-25616500;
( G. Thomas Sims in Frankfurt contributed to this report )

(Wed May 20 1998 06:26 - ID#286199)
Euro and Gold....we may know soon
May 20, 1998
ECB Watch: Gold, Forex Portfolio Tops ECB Council Agenda

Dow Jones Newswires

FRANKFURT -- A feud over the proportion of gold and foreign exchange holdings in the European Central Bank's reserve portfolio is creating new tensions between the participants in European economic and monetary union ( EMU ) .

A dispute over the amount of gold in the ECB's coffers is pitting Germany and France - advocates of having a high proportion of gold in the ECB's reserves - against Belgium and the Netherlands, which have been selling the precious metal over recent years.

It is estimated that the ECB will hold up to ECU50 billion of its reserves in gold and foreign currencies.

Although less public, this feud has more potential of rocking the foreign exchange and gold markets than the dispute over the ECB presidency.

And the struggle is expected to flare up on June 8 or 9, when the ECB's
policy-making council is expected to meet officially for the first time.

"Deciding on the reserve issue will surely be near the top of the agenda and an issue of utmost importance for the groundwork of the ECB," said a
spokeswoman for the European Monetary Institute - the forerunner of the ECB.

Just last week, Deutsche Bundesbank president Hans Tietmeyer took the
opportunity at what was seen as the Bundesbank's last big event as
Germany's governing central bank - its annual earnings conference - to stress that the Bundesbank will be consistent in its gold policy.

Tietmeyer has repeatedly said that gold sales aren't even an option for the Bundesbank, the second-largest holder of gold after the U.S. Federal Reserve.

Bank of France officials have echoed Tietmeyer's remarks and the central
bank's governor Jean-Claude Trichet ranks as the most avidly pro-gold central banker. It is worth noting that a Frenchman will be vice-president at the ECB.

By contrast, Belgium, the Netherlands and Italy have sold gold ahead of the transfer of national bank reserves to the ECB, reflecting those countries' beliefs that gold no longer plays a significant role as a back-up to monetary reserves.

(Wed May 20 1998 06:26 - ID#230376)
For all you youngsters out there....

Right after the " Korean War " the Japanese Yen was right around 365 to the U.S.$ markets abounded ........great " buys " all over the place. Looks like an Asian Re-run sans bullets ,so far........

(Wed May 20 1998 06:30 - ID#316193)
@Donald, Whatever the Problem, Colin's Site is Sans Yahoo This AM

(Wed May 20 1998 06:31 - ID#316193)
Let's Re-do Colin's Website

(Wed May 20 1998 06:31 - ID#230376)
@ Donald.....

Yahoo Finance's last was 6:04 .... EDT

(Wed May 20 1998 06:38 - ID#230376)

Yahoo Finance is not updating/refreshing.......bbl

(Wed May 20 1998 06:39 - ID#284255)
Year 2000 Bankers Conference Editorial Coverage - good read.

(Wed May 20 1998 06:50 - ID#286199)
The Swiss Gold Connection

The Swiss publicly announced that they would like to SELL some of their gold and drove the price down. Then they turned around and bought it at fire sale prices from Asian meltdown victims. Unless I am mistaken, there is more gold in Switzerland today than ever! If I were a cynical person, I would think that the bankers loaned paper to Asian countries, shorted their currencies precipitating a crisis and then traded paper for gold.

(Wed May 20 1998 06:51 - ID#284255)
Galaxy IV
This is the first sign of Ragnarok!!!!

Soon we will be 'Gaberlunzie's'

(Wed May 20 1998 07:09 - ID#254201)
How did your horse do at Sportsman? My quote machine is down too.

(Wed May 20 1998 07:18 - ID#289357)
For you Dinar/Dirham buffs - open an account in Dubai

In case you missed this yesterday .... from Colin Seymour ...

May 19th 1998 - News from Umar Vadillo

"All the Directors of the Islamic Mint are gathering in Dubai to establish the first Islamic Wakala ( Agency ) of Dubai. This institution will support the use of the Islamic Dinar as world currency by enabling anybody to open accounts in Dinars and Dirhams, thus allowing account holders to make payments to other account holders from anywhere in the world. This is another step towards returning towards a real currency. The response so far is being overwhelming."

(Wed May 20 1998 07:23 - ID#26793)
Gold and silver coin prices for mid-day Tuesday

(Wed May 20 1998 07:28 - ID#289357)
Flash From Stratfor Re: Indonesia
I'm not sure if this has already been posted....

Global Intelligence Update
Red Alert
May 20, 1998

Foreign Naval Presence Builds Around Indonesia

Australia has carried on with scheduled joint naval and air exercises with
the Indonesian military this week, despite that country's apparent
impending collapse. Three frigates and a destroyer, approximately a third
of Australia's navy, along with three Australian F-111 bombers and a P-3
Orion reconnaissance aircraft, will be joined by a similar number of
Indonesian forces in the exercises. The exercises, titled "New Horizons,"
will take place off the Indonesian port of Surabaya. The Australian
government acknowledged the sensitive timing of the maneuvers, but stated
that the long-planned exercises, which take place within the two countries'
bilateral defense accord, were not subject to internal Indonesian events.
Nevertheless, Australia, like other countries, is arranging for the
potential evacuation of its citizens from Indonesia on chartered civilian
Boeing 747 jets.

Taiwan and Japan have also sent naval forces to Indonesian waters, though
not as part of joint exercises. Taiwan has a three ship fleet cruising
near Indonesia, for possible use in evacuating Taiwanese nationals from
Indonesia. Japan has also dispatched two patrol boats to Singapore for
possible use in evacuating Japanese nationals. The two countries have each
sent military C-130 transport aircraft and chartered civilian airliners to
Indonesia for use in evacuating their citizens.

Malaysia has placed its coastal troops on full alert and has stepped up sea
and air patrols to defend against a "possible sneak landing by Indonesians"
fleeing the country's unrest, according to the Malaysian Defense Minister,
cited in the daily "Nanyang Siang Pau" newspaper. Malaysia has deployed 10
vessels to patrol its waters against any possible mass refugee exodus.
Malaysia is also preparing for the possible evacuation of its nationals
from Indonesia by ferry or civilian airlines.

Indonesia's near and distant neighbors are concerned about more than just
the immediate security of their citizens in the country. Indonesia has a
history of externalizing its internal problems, using the nationalism card
to trump economic failure. This was especially the case under Sukarno,
whose domestic radical populism was accompanied by aggressive,
confrontational external politics, targeted in particular at New Guinea and
Malaysia. The potential for Indonesia to once again revert to aggressive,
nationalistic foreign politics has its neighbors concerned over, among
other things, the security of Indonesian waters.

Australia's naval exercises with Indonesia serve two purposes. Australia
first and foremost wants stability in Indonesia, and if that can be
accomplished through the careful return to and maintenance of the status
quo ante, then just as well. However, if Indonesia begins to collapse,
Australia is committed to making sure Indonesian instability does not spill
over into Australia's sphere of influence, which extends roughly from New
Guinea to the Cocos Islands.

Two other potential external impacts of an Indonesian collapse are of
critical concern to other countries. The first is the security of foreign
firms operating in Indonesia, particularly those in oil and other
extractive industries which would be ripe for nationalization. The second
is the security of the flow of oil from and through Indonesia. Countries
such as Taiwan and Japan, which are highly dependent on Indonesian oil and
on Middle East oil passing through the Strait of Malacca, are extremely
worried about the potential effect an Indonesian collapse could have on
their fuel supply. We note in particular the deployment of Japanese
vessels to Singapore, on the Strait. Should that oil flow become
threatened, they will be forced to turn, at least in the short term, to
Australia to keep the sea lanes open. The nearest significant US Navy
presence is the two Carrier Battle Groups committed in the Persian Gulf,
while the Seventh Fleet has a frigate and a destroyer deployed in the
Philippine Sea. The potential for a constriction in the oil supply, either
through the temporary disruption of Indonesian production or through
threats to traffic through the Strait of Malacca, while an unexpected boon
to Indonesia's cash-strapped OPEC allies, is a nightmare for already
economically unsettled Japan and other Asian nations.


To receive free daily Global Intelligence Updates
or Computer Security Alerts, sign up on the web at>, or send your name,
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(Wed May 20 1998 07:30 - ID#413109)
Much obliged partner
ERSEL- Thanks for putting me on to the Milhouse article.
have emailed him already, with further questions. This then
also explains why I origionally forsaw another down leg to the 7-10K
range for the Nikkei. The time factor threw me off. Time and rythm,
I find important in my long range predictions.

(Wed May 20 1998 07:31 - ID#26793)
London morning gold and currency prices.

(Wed May 20 1998 07:37 - ID#289357)
IMF @ Indonesia
While my ISP was down this morning for maintenance, I took a brief foray into the world of CNBC of the commentators was saying that the IMF may walk away from its commitments in Indonesia ( $43 B$ ? ) if they don't honor their debt obligations, or if shooting starts by the military. I imagine it's a slam dunk, that one or both of those events comes to pass soon....and then the world will see what the IMF is REALLY for - to protect the NY money center bankers' behinds, eh? It's a dead duck in the U.S. Congress, if this happens ( maybe it is anyway ) .

(Wed May 20 1998 07:39 - ID#284255)
The Ice Age Cometh - from the fiend

(Wed May 20 1998 07:49 - ID#289357)

Date: Wed May 20 1998 06:51

sharefin ( Galaxy IV ) ID#284255:

This is the first sign of Ragnarok!!!!

Soon we will be 'Gaberlunzie's'


.Anybody have a satellite - quote thingy that isn't working today? ...A harbinger of the near future in microcosm.

(Wed May 20 1998 07:50 - ID#26793)
Paul Krugman, the author of your 7:39 post, is the person who said that the Asian Crisis was "unpredictable".

(Wed May 20 1998 07:51 - ID#341234)
Gold Demand
So, Bloomberg reported gold demand was down 55% in the 1st quarter. It looks like the low gold price is not due to market manipulation, conspiracies, paper gold, or plays against oil. It is just simple supply and demand. A few people on this site need to take Economics 101. The good news is that as the demand returns to normal and the supply decreases, the price of gold should recover. Forget $30,000, $400 would be fine with me.

(Wed May 20 1998 07:53 - ID#57232)
Jin: Thanks for the posts to everyone. Indonesian demonstrations cancelled for today, but elections scheduled for Jan 1999. It seems pretty clear to me that the confrontations will not be over until Suharto resigns unconditionally -- agreed?

Silverbaron: That global intelligence update certainly has the 'flavor' of truth in it. I have always wondered where they get their news. Japan at risk for oil supply being cut off? That is highly significant. Makes sense that they would look to Australia for help. Where is the US Navy?

All: What is this about gold demand dropping by 40%+ in a Bloomberg report, with scrap gold from Asia flooding Switzerland? I think we are getting conflicting news. My guess is that the longer real confrontations are delayed in Indonesia, the more likely that gold will eventually go up -- given the dire situation in Russia. Beware the gold rally, as it may mean that the seams of our fragile economic system are starting to crack.

(Wed May 20 1998 08:03 - ID#57232)
How about $350?
Fred: I would be happy with that. It is possible that during a world fiat currency crisis that gold could go well below $300 one more time. It all depends on whether the US dollar is in the middle of the crisis or not. Either way, the price of gold is going up all over the world -- in most currencies -- progressive serial devaluations. If the price of gold drops in US dollars that may be a buying opportunity for Americans, but it will be a very bad sign for the world, because it will be destabilizing for the world's economy. Take care everyone.

(Wed May 20 1998 08:06 - ID#393224)
G'day newtron

Date: Wed May 20 1998 01:36
newtron ( Preacher & Nick - ALL PMS are down significantly on Kitco ! ) ID#388209:
Does this portend time to reach for GOLDEN XAU PUT PARACHUTE ?
Gold go down?
Gee whiz, mate.
Haven't thought of that!

(Wed May 20 1998 08:16 - ID#341234)
Gold Demand
Here is the report from the World Gold Council about gold demand in the 1st quarter:
Click on Press Release for a summary.

This report looks very bullish to me. Demand only dropped because of the SE Asia selling that we already knew about. Otherwise, demand is strong.

RTF: I think things are starting to turn around. I have doubts that there is going to be another buying opportunity better than the one we have now. The WGC report may drive prices up today.

(Wed May 20 1998 08:17 - ID#341234)
Sorry, JTF, not RTF

(Wed May 20 1998 08:18 - ID#26793)
This discusses gold fabrication but still seems to conflict with Bloomberg

(Wed May 20 1998 08:21 - ID#26793)
This seems to conflict with Bloomberg also.

(Wed May 20 1998 08:21 - ID#253418)
Bloomberg's 55% decline
I wonder how accurate that number is. Look at gold tonight, or morning, whereever you are, its up 30 cents, may not be for long, but it has put in a pretty good recovery of $297.20. Doesn't look like participants in the market itself are too very worried about the big decline in demand - if it really existed.

What was the source of Bloomberg's information: The Gold Shorts' Propaganda Machine, Inc,.?

And I read silver is down because of US sanctions hurting Indian demand - its down because the technicals deteriorated, the funds shorted, the tired, very tired longs liquidated.

I know we'll have a one and a half day rally here in gold to 300.50 and Silver 5.25 and then down she'll go again, at least are this moment its up..

(Wed May 20 1998 08:28 - ID#253418)
Something is happening here
does anybody know what it is . . PD and PL just came to life reversing strong downs - Russian news??? My gosh silver even had a green 5 there for a minute.

(Wed May 20 1998 08:37 - ID#318183)
Gee - Jim Cramer is yelling so loud on CNBC that instanet trading is crooked that I didn't hear the gruel boil over - where is that disneyland guy with all the know about South Africa?? lol

(Wed May 20 1998 08:41 - ID#215208)
Midnight markets?
APH - Where do you do your trading that you can execute orders when the US markets are closed? If this can be done, it seems it eliminates overnight surprises, as protective stops will still be effective.

EB - I don't claim to understand why PL is so weak. I suppose it may have something to do with the weak Yen. However, you guys taught me long ago the the trend is your friend. I spend a lot of time trying to get a handle on the trends. Not so easy, I find. Good luck with your PL. I do plan to jump back in when the tea leaves speak to me.

(Wed May 20 1998 08:46 - ID#434158)
Conflicting Gold Reports @ Donald
To a neophyte it seem simple enough: people who are making a lot of money in other countries are putting some of it into gold ( Saudi's ) . Gold serves, of course, as a portable store of wealth. ( Can a private individual get and hold US dollars there? ) People who are in an economic decline stop buying gold, they need what little is coming in to buy food, water, etc... ( Asia last year ) . People whose currencies have tanked and who are getting desparate SELL what gold they have accumulated to buy food, water, etc... ( Asia first quarter ) . They are all making normal use of the traditional function of gold.

That probably is a good lesson for the rest of us on what to expect if Y2K severely impacts the world economy. I suspect a growing number in the western world are beginning in the gold accumulation stage, as they start to worry. But when the economy tanks, it takes assets with it: what do you have left with which to buy gold? Purchases may drop off. AS the crisis deepends, many who have hoarded some gold and little else will be forced to sell for survival. What effect will that have?

These elements will probably be the same for all of us. The DIFFERENCE is that the dollar is the world reserve currency. When the yen tanks, or the ( fill in the blank ) it is currently measured largely against the dollar. Thus to us gold is cheap: to the Japanese and the Indonesians it is quite expensive. In Y2K will the dollar maintain it's role as the world reserve? If so, gold may not do well here. If not, what will replace the dollar? Who will be better off than the US? Whose currency will be more reliable? None. I need to think about this some more. Responses?

(Wed May 20 1998 08:48 - ID#373403)
Gold demand down?
I did not notice that in my store. In fact I am having a record year to date and I am squirelling all my money into gold.

I read all jewelry trade magazines and belong to an online jewelers forum and I can say with certainty that the jewelry industry did not take a hit anywhere near this magnitude. In fact I have not read ONE THING which suggests business is down.

On the other hand, platinum is HOT, BLAZING HOT! Maybe gold is being substituted with platinum but still, not to a great degree. Engagement rings and bands are platinum all the way but these are some of the lightest pieces of jewelry. Fine fashion jewelry like bracelets and necklaces tend to be heavier in design and people will not buck up for platinum.

I think this is a shift from supply side bashing of gold to demand side propaganda. CB sale announcements were losing their affect. Desperation on the part of fiat cheerleaders.

(Wed May 20 1998 08:50 - ID#248180)
Silver - FT London
Commodities 
SILVER: High price dries up Indian demand
By Kenneth Gooding, Mining Correspondent
As Warren Buffett, the prominent US investor, was acquiring 4,000 tonnes of silver last year, millions of Indians, the world's biggest consumers of the metal, stopped buying. This is made clear in the latest market survey from the Washington-based Silver Institute.

When the silver price rose sharply towards the end of 1997, reflecting the buying activities of Mr Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway investment group, imports to India virtually dried up.

In India, most silver is bought by farmers in the north who stock pile the metal as a form of saving. They do not look at the dollar price but at the cost in their domestic currency.

"At present, they buy when the price falls below Rs7,000 and stop buying when silver goes above Rs8,000," said Stewart Murray, managing director of Gold Fields Mineral Services, the consultancy that compiled the survey.

When the price of silver was languishing in the first half of last year - hitting a four-year low of $4.22 a troy ounce in mid July - India's bullion imports were "phenomenal". As the price increased, to touch a nine-year high of $6.27 in late December, imports fell to virtually nothing.

Mr Murray said the Indian silver "buyers' strike" was also partly a reaction to the unprecedented level of imports in the record second quarter and partly because the price of gold, also favoured in India for savings, was falling.

Mr Buffett was attracted to silver by the low price, but he was also influenced by the way demand had exceeded conventional supply - from mines and scrap - for many years.

In 1997, the "statistical deficit" was 130m ounces or 4,031 tonnes. Between 1990 and 1997, cumulative silver fabrication demand exceeded mine supply by 2,226m ounces. The gap has been filled by recycled silver scrap, almost entirely from the photographic industry, and more than 1,084m ounces from silver stocks - 700m from identifiable bullion stocks and the balance from private holdings.

Mr Murray suggested the "statistical deficit" would continue for some years and the key question was whether the price had moved enough to bring the market into balance.

He said Indian silver imports had picked up again in March but were still relatively low. With silver back yesterday at $5.28 an ounce, it seems that, for the time being, Mr Buffett and others who bet on a higher silver price are not doing well in their battle with the Indians.

World Silver Survey 1998 from the Silver Institute, 1112 16th Street, ., Suite 240, Washington, DC 20036, US: $70 or 45.

(Wed May 20 1998 08:51 - ID#342315)
Themissinglink re email
How about sending me your email. I have a possible idea for you. Thanx. mine is Charlie

(Wed May 20 1998 08:56 - ID#427357)

International analyst Milhouse provides a very-insightful critique of a Martin Armstrong's ( founder and chairman of Princeton Economics International ) recent seminar in Hong Kong.

Interesting revelations and forecasts:

- A final washout in Japan will also occur, with the Nikkei eventually falling below 10,000.


- particularly gold, which should move significantly above its 1980 high ) .

- He stated that gold would, however, begin a bull market during the second half of

1998 as private investment capital seeks a haven from the chaos created by EMU.

- Forced to look outside Japan to obtain a competitive interest rate the Japanese have accumulated over 2 trillion dollars of US Government debt.

 amount others

The entire report may be seen at following web location. Please remember to delete the extra letter "b" ( beagle ) in the Internet address:

(Wed May 20 1998 08:56 - ID#248180)
Gold Hedge Blame - FT London

Commodities 
Hedging blamed for gold's loss of shine
Barrick prospers but some fear forward selling may kill the industry, says Edward Alden
The World Gold Council has blamed the dramatic fall in the world's gold price - it slid last year to its lowest level in nearly 18 years - on the increasing use of hedging by producers. The world's biggest and most effective hedger is Barrick Gold, and at the company's annual general meeting last week, Peter Munk, chairman, indicated why.

The company, North America's second largest gold producer, had just come through what Mr Munk called "a devastatingly bad year" in which gold prices dropped 25 per cent and the average share price in the industry fell 45 per cent. Barrick shares dropped from $31 early in the year to less than $19 by the year's end.

However, not only had it survived, in the first quarter of 1998 it turned in a 36 per cent increase in profits - despite gold prices remaining near $300 an ounce.

The company benefited from rising production and a cost-cutting programme, but most of the attention has focused on its aggressive hedging.
In 1997, Barrick's forward-selling meant its entire production realised $420 an ounce, $88 above the average spot price for the year. That produced an extra $269m in revenue and $200m in earnings, said Randall Oliphant, chief financial officer. Over the past 10 years, Barrick has earned an average premium of $46 an ounce over the spot price.

Hedging has been remarkably effective, particularly in the long bear market for gold, most analysts say. Canada's Placer Dome realised strong first-quarter profits on a hedged price of $350 an ounce, and Australia's Normandy Mining has hedged about 60 per cent of its reserves. Companies that have mostly eschewed hedging, such as Newmont Mining, North America's largest gold producer, are more exposed to the continued weakness of gold prices.

"Of all the gold companies in North America, they [Barrick] have been the greatest winner," says Todd Hinrichs, senior mining analyst with ABN Amro in Chicago

But not all observers are quite so enthusiastic. There are many who fear the practice may destroy the gold business. The large quantities of gold dumped on the market as a result of forward selling have, they fear, seriously depressed the price of gold and perhaps tarnished its lustre permanently.

"They've damaged their underlying business," says Graham Birch, who heads the gold and mining team at Mercury Asset Management in London, one of the UK's largest institutional buyers of gold stocks. "Without a doubt they've contributed to the weakness in the gold market, which has affected their stock valuation." While Barrick's stock has recovered to $22, it has yet to regain more than a fraction of last year's slide.

The gold business lends itself to a unique kind of forward selling, because of the large quantities of gold in the world's central banks.

While there are variations, the basic arrangement works like this. A company borrows gold from a bullion dealer or bank, which borrows the metal from a central bank. The company pays a lease rate of roughly 2 per cent for the privilege.

The gold is immediately sold into the spot market, and the proceeds banked to earn interest rate returns of 6 per cent or higher. Gold from production is delivered two, three or more years later against the contract and returned to the central bank. By that time the company has earned not only the proceeds from the original spot sale, but interest profits in the interim.

"It's a great strategy," says Larry Strauss, senior mining analyst with Canaccord Capital in Toronto. "To me it's a no-brainer."

Barrick says it currently has 10m ounces - about three years' production - hedged at more than $400 an ounce, creating a $4bn asset that can earn $200m a year with a5per cent net return. Critics say the arrangement depends on the spot price of gold not rising above the forward price.

But Barrick has entered into flexible contracts that allow delivery to be deferred so immediate production can be sold at the higher spot price. Unlike other companies with smaller gold reserves or less solid cash positions, Barrick can defer contracts up to 15 years.

Detractors like Mr Birch at MAM say the strategy leaves hedgers over-exposed to changes in the futures market, but ABN Amro's Mr Hinrichs says the odds of such events are sufficiently small to make hedging a good bet.
Most people who buy gold stocks do so because they are betting on gold prices rising, says Mr Strauss at Canacord. "They want that leverage." A hedged company like Barrick, in contrast, offers stable returns over longer periods, but will not realise the same boost if gold surges.

Mr Birch says that while he continues to buy Barrick shares, "we want the upside potential of a gold price, and it's very important that upside potential remains intact."

(Wed May 20 1998 08:58 - ID#373403)
Money readers for the blind or big brother tracking your wallet?
CNBC this morning slipped this new money reader for the blind comment in with a story about the new $20 bill.

If the banks all start reading serial numbers into a computer which in turn is fed into the Federal Reserve supercomputer and these serial numbers are ATTRIBUTED to your account, then money could lose it's annonymity. When you make a deposit with money not in the computer system expect a visit from a treasury agent.

The IRS can watch your money flows. People in cash business go to make a large purchase and the merchant deposits the money. The computer sees that this money has not seen the light of a bank in over a year. Merchant is questioned who gave them the money.

Or maybe the government is really going out of it's way for a small fraction of the population.

(Wed May 20 1998 09:06 - ID#316193)
U.S. Trade Deficit Rises to Highest Level in History
The inflationary news is out!

(Wed May 20 1998 09:08 - ID#284255)
Silverbaron - from Collins dictionary
Ragnarok - The ultimate destruction of the gods in a cataclysmic battle with evil , out of which a new order will arise.

Gaberlunzie - A wandering beggar.

(Wed May 20 1998 09:14 - ID#254269)
Techno-hostages is the term used by a MIT professor while discussing the
pager outage this morning.

(Wed May 20 1998 09:14 - ID#427357)

INTERESTING Gold & Silver commentaries at this website

(Wed May 20 1998 09:14 - ID#342315)
Vronsky re Milhouse
No doubt Milhouse has the upper hand, Thanx, Charlie

(Wed May 20 1998 09:17 - ID#248180)
NO Shortage of Press around the Globe telling us how plentiful
Gold & Silver are. Islamic Dinar gold coins/currency announced. India intends to issues gold back bonds. EURO at the starting blocks. USA debt at record levels. US$ & DOW have only one way to go, DOWN.
Real Inflation ignored. IMF short of funds. IMF squeezes Russia, UK squeezes Russia for cheaper oil industry entry. Sounds like interesting times. China/Japan currencies? Changes blowin in the winds. Buy PM's & mining stocks.
Good night.

(Wed May 20 1998 09:18 - ID#342315)
Themissinglink re RED FLAG
You have notified the cash market of the insidious effort by treasury to control every move from the toilet to the bed. Thanx, Charlie

John Disney__A
(Wed May 20 1998 09:20 - ID#24135)
Heah Ah is
Lakefoil ..
You need something .. boss ??

(Wed May 20 1998 09:27 - ID#318183)
to visiting disneyland dignitary
was the selloff today in South Africa - and recovery - frantic or calm?

(Wed May 20 1998 09:31 - ID#280245)
as private investment capital seeks a haven from the chaos created by EMU (Vronsky's post)

Shall we deal, for a bit, with EMU chaos?

Various contractual doctrines which might permit parties to avoid or otherwise terminate contractual obligations, such as the UCC doctrine
of commercial impracticability and the common law doctrines of impossibility and frustration, would be unavailable after EMU. This
is because the State theory of money, in the manner in which it has
been articulated by U.S. courts, is applicable to all U.S. contracts affected by EMU. Thus, any contractual obligations denominated in or
by reference to EU national currencies must be discharged in euros in accordance with the applicable provisions of the EU Council regulations on the introduction of the Euro and the irrevocably fixed conversion rates at which the euro substitutes for the EU national currencies.
The continuity of all interest rate obligations can also be expected
in accordance with the applicable provisions of the EU Council regulations and/or pursuant to successor interest established for the euro.

Many legal documents, including the ISDA standard forms used for over-the counter derivatives contracts, contain contractual definitions of ECU currencies that define each currency as the lawful currency of
a particular country ( e.g., the Deutsche mark is defined as the lawful currency of the Federal Republic of Germany ) . This formula clearly directs American courts to the laws of the Federal Republic of Germany ( including the applicable provisions of the EU Council regulations ) for determination as to the meaning of the term Deutsche mark. Other clauses used in many U.S. foreign currency debt documents call for payments in such coin or currency as the time of payment is legal
tender for the payment of debts. Such clauses also ensure the continuity of contracts after EMU. 
The Legal Implications of the European Monetary Union under U.S. and
New York Law, Niall Lenihan; for European Commission, Directorate General forEconomic & Financial Affairs


Donald/ This document was brought forward BECAUSE it
was a "gold franc" hit ( only two from 400,00+ ) . US cits evidently
can't pull out the GF mention? Somewhere in this MESS, they have
linked the euro, or certain specific contractual 'situations' to the GF. Betcha!

(Wed May 20 1998 09:33 - ID#254201)
Night Markets
DJ - The US markets are open for trading nearly 24 hours a day, trading thru Globex and Access after normal daytime hours. The margins are the same but there is a slight up charge and not all markets take stops. Some of my best fills come at night. If you're using a broker without a night desk find another broker the guy is not really in the business. I use Lind-Waldock

John Disney__A
(Wed May 20 1998 09:49 - ID#24135)
I guess it was calm..
Mistah lakefoil ..
Cause ah nevah noticed it until
you all tole me about it. Ah was
sellin some stuff an ah got bettah
prices that ah thought ah would.
But thanks for your alls interest.

(Wed May 20 1998 09:55 - ID#318183)
price improvement is a nice thing
gentleman disney - I noticed a twang in your post - are you from South South Africa or would that be from North South Africa?

(Wed May 20 1998 10:02 - ID#284255)
What's going on here?

Have a look on 1 minute charts at:

A few of the other stocks are showing unusual habits too.

Something is going on here!!!!

(Wed May 20 1998 10:03 - ID#57232)
EURO Legal mumbo-jumbo
SDRer: We certainly need mozel to wait throught this. Too much for us mere mortals. My immediate impression is that the Laywers had a free-for all with the EURO, and that it will be tied up in knots. Just how big was that committee that came up with all the regulations? Anything over 2 members tends to be less effective in proportion to the number of participants.

I wonder -- did the Europeans get advice from our Federal Government?

(Wed May 20 1998 10:06 - ID#358318)
Satellite Problem-
-is disrupting flow of news and quotes to stock market traders.
Could cause anomalous price movements?

(Wed May 20 1998 10:08 - ID#280245)
BIS Working Paper No. 39
Banking System Failures...
Patrick Honohan
January 1997

Even when the funds are onlent to domestic borrowers in foreign-exchange-denominated loans, the borrowers are often unable to survive a large devaluation, so the foreign exchange risk has not be hedged, just transformed into credit risk.

Footnote: In Mexico, highly leveraged open foreign exchange positions were adopted by banks in 1994 for this very reason. Interestingly, the banks used complex derivative instruments which helped them conceal the true nature of the positions from regulators ( Garber,[1995] )

(Wed May 20 1998 10:11 - ID#22956)
I am now sitting on a small pile-o-silver........ohmy.

Now, let us w/w..................OK

APH and DJ, thanks youse guyz for your posts......let us make a little *dough* together, eh?

DJ - this plat thing makes little sense to me as well, but I have learned that if you want something to go somewhere tooooo much it seems to do the opposite. I saw a good gamble and it is not moving my way........but the fat lady......nope...............I haven't heard a peep from her ( ! ) :-0 Sure beats bein' in gold right now.........if I could steal the words of Monex#3-dude......."it's in a coma"......OK. w/w


(Wed May 20 1998 10:14 - ID#228100)
Veneroso Associates Web Site
Why should anyone pay $150 ( or whatever ) per month for Veneroso tell them that the POG is going up? Sounds like a waste of cash. I'll tell them that for free!

(Wed May 20 1998 10:15 - ID#340459)
Oil at $ 12.96, How low can it go.
I bought SSC and ECO today. Any clarification on Bloomberg 55% demand decline news. Something is cooking, the price is static for 1.5 hours now..

(Wed May 20 1998 10:21 - ID#284255)
I don't think that is it.
It doesn't look like errant data to me.
Looks like a warning signal of a large move.
Large tick swings under high volumes is a warning.

Action like this was observable during the Oct97 tank.

Can you send me an email?

(Wed May 20 1998 10:23 - ID#280245)
JTF--Legal mumbo-jumbo...

Technology is the cobweb in which we are enmeshed....
Legal mumbo-jumbo is the spider that owns the web
{:- (

(Wed May 20 1998 10:27 - ID#318183)
It is what market orders will do for you

(Wed May 20 1998 10:30 - ID#31868)
So lets refurbish the house, tear down the dirty web and kill the spiders, if that
does not work, knock down the whole house, destroy the rats in the basement and begin by building on a golden foundation. No problem.

trader ed
(Wed May 20 1998 10:34 - ID#373349)
Silver (Elliott Waves, 3rd or 4th generation mutation)
Most likely today's bounce in the price of silver is simply a fakeout rally. My reading of the charts say that prices will go lower later this week, or early next week. At that time I plan to go long for a rather significant rally, before silver goes even lower than yesterday.

(Wed May 20 1998 10:37 - ID#280245)
America's trade gaps with Japan, China and other Asian countries widened dramatically as the Asian crisis crashed onto America's shores, underscoring the political problem facing the Clinton administration. ( Lelands post )

QUESTION: Who needs to devalue what?

(Wed May 20 1998 10:49 - ID#25171)
I would tend to think that we completed an ABC correction wave today in SILVER
A break of 5.54 is needed to confirm this theory in JULY SILVER
If we break 5.54 we will be in a wave 3 which should top above the previous high reached earlier this year during panic short covering and momemtum long positioning.Off course , the latter are now short.It is called the saloon doors syndrome.

John Disney__A
(Wed May 20 1998 10:49 - ID#24135)
Ah is fom Virginia ...
Mistah Lakefoil ..
By way of South Australia..
But you is de firse to mention
my twang .. now you all got me
rightly worried .. boss ..

(Wed May 20 1998 10:50 - ID#215208)
Overnight trading
APH - Thanks for the info. I'll look into it.

(Wed May 20 1998 10:56 - ID#31868)
What Americans do not hear BUT SHOULD, which affects other nations...

(Wed May 20 1998 11:04 - ID#266110)
@trader ed 10:34 & SEQUIN 10:44 --- Silver movement and timing
Both of your posts are stimulating this question. Are either ( or both ) of you willing to continue to post the projected movements in Ag based on your analyses? If so, please do so in advance of fairly significant directional swings.

The reason for my request is hased upon my frustration associated with the short run directly after WB's announced purchases when Ag went up to ~$7.25/oz. I had a sizable position that I had targeted at $7.50 to dump out. Because I didn't hit that trigger price, I'm still holding my position. But if I had known that my $7.50 target was too shaky, I would have gladly dumped and bought back in - based upon the timing you are targeting right now.

While I'm not overly frustrated, I would have liked making a little extra cash and invest my profits in a little AU or Ag mining stocks while I put my principle back into the same size Ag 1000 oz bar positions I hold.

Thanks to you for your posts.

(Wed May 20 1998 11:06 - ID#426220)

Virtual-LIVE real-time charts of hard assets vs paper assets:

Gold, Silver & Platinum futures, XAU, HUI, Johannesburg All-Gold, S&P Gold Precious Metals, Toronto Gold & Silver, Australian Gold INDICES, CRB & US Dollar Indices - versus DOW, T-Bonds, NASDAQ, S&P500 Indices. - ALL ON ONE PAGE

As usual it is necessary to DELETE the letter "b" in the word "beagle" before posting to your Internet locator:

(Wed May 20 1998 11:07 - ID#262242)
1st annual Kitco convention
Reify, I like the idea of getting together in New York August 15th. Maybe we could call this the 1st annual Kitco convention. I am checking the airlines today. How many Kitcoites can make it??????

(Wed May 20 1998 11:08 - ID#212197)
@vronsky (THE CRASH CONTINUES by Milhouse)
I find Milhouse's critique of Martin Armstrong's speach very interesting but I do not agree with many of his most important points:

- Milhouse/Armstrong think: the different European coutries have a much too different economic situation; therefore they would be better off to make their own decisions on interest rates, money supply, budget deficit e.t.c.
I think:
-small countries only have disadvantages and no protection when they are exposed to the world's financial markets; they even can become easy targets of the "Soros" of the world.
-Different levels in saleries and wages is a completely normal thing. There is no large economic area in the world where this is not the case. It doesn't matter if such differences have temporarily "regional" reasons.
- the preassure to keep budget deficits low is healthy for all of them.
- the same interest rates for all the countries is basically very healthy and cannot ever possibly be more wrong than eleven different interest rates which drive everybody crazy anyhow.
-Alltogether: Milhous/Armstrong bring very weak arguments. This indicates that they might have a different agenda, like to hurt the common curreny concept psychologically.
IMHO: It completely dosn't matter that the different countries have still their own fministers for foreign affairs and a lot of autonomy in all kind of areas other than to mess around with their own currencies. The EURO intorduction seems rather an instrument of economic and financial order to me than a precurser of chaos.

Milhouse/Armstrong think: the gold price will go up and the dollar will go up dramatically, both together.

I think that is partially contradictive. If the dollar goes up relative to all the other currencies, we would be lucky if the uptrending dollar drags along with it the gold, which means: chances are that the gold will keep the same price relative to the US$ rather than increasing its price in terms of US$.
Much depends on the US stock market. Why should the overly evaluated US stock market attract foreign investors en masse? There will be always people panicking though the globe not knowing where to put their money. But it is unlikely that this will become another trend as long as there is no dramatic correction happening on the US stock market. After such a correction I think Milhouse/Armstrong could be right with their prediction. But the correction process itself will chase away foreign money rather than attracting it.

The Milhouse/Armstrong thoughts are not conclusive. The best chance for higher gold prices are:
- a weak dollar
- higher inflation
- lower stock prices.

Alberich the Dwarf

(Wed May 20 1998 11:08 - ID#31868)
Lock&Load - You should take a look at CFB - Clifton Mining a small silver co.
It is cheap right now and will go up quite a ways when silver moves. FWIW Namaste'

(Wed May 20 1998 11:13 - ID#266110)
@tolerant1 11:08 -- Thanks for the tip, CFB is one that I'm studying
In fact, besides my RANGY and CTQ positions, I am looking at many different plays for stocks. But I am still in a tangible position ( besides my junk halfs ) that I want to make more profit with. If I am able to trade in and out of the tangible position with some proper market timing, then I can add more to my stock purchases for positions such as CFB, SSC, TNX and the like.

CFB is on the hit list.

(Wed May 20 1998 11:17 - ID#317193)
Not good at predicting the price of gold
I thought gold would be down $2-3 dollars today. It is not-yet. Maybe I'm crazy but I can not make myself buy any more gold mining shares just yet. I want to buy back into Harmony but it still seems a little high to me. I think I'll just buy some more Cental Fund Canada and keep some cash available if spot gold goes to $295.

Time will tell. Good investing all.


(Wed May 20 1998 11:18 - ID#347235)
Side margins are awol again!

(Wed May 20 1998 11:35 - ID#335184)
Thanks for the bone Nick, at least it was a funny one !
Here's hoping your parachute & bone are made of solid gold !

Look out beloooooow !

I remain,



(Wed May 20 1998 11:37 - ID#194311)
banks and Y2K....get your money out soon....
"Bank of banks" to tackle millennium bug problem

BASEL, Switzerland, May 20 ( AFP ) - The Bank for International
Settlements ( BIS ) , dubbed the "Central Bank of Central Banks", said
Wednesday it had set up a joint council to tackle the problem of the
"millennium bug" in computers.
It is feared that widespread computer breakdowns will occur at
the arrival of the year 2000 because many computers only recognise
the last two figures of a year and will become confused when their
clocks go back to zero.
The fear is that the bug will cause computer confusion that may
stop elevators, bring down aircraft in mid-flight, baffle stock
market software, cause banks to confuse accounts and turn off the
electric power to entire towns.
To avoid this contemporary apocalypse, corporations and
governments are spending money and time to bring software up to
The worldwide cost in time and money could hit 600 billion
dollars, according to experts.

Japanese banks ill-prepared for year 2000 bug: Moody's

TOKYO, May 20 ( AFP ) - Japanese banks are badly prepared for the
Year 2000 computer bug with most spending far less on fixing the
problem than their US rivals, ratings agency Moody's Investors
Service warned Wednesday.
"Unlike other global banks, the Japanese say that they do not
have any major problems -- and how they achieved that happy state of
affair is something of a mystery," said the New York-based credit
Since Japanese banks have a strong role in international deals,
a failure to tackle the problem could "create risks for other banks
that trade with them as well as significant issues for regulators
and for international clearing mechanisms."
Moody's said it was concerned that Japanese bank executives "do
not appear to be taking the potential problems as seriously as the
managements of other global institutions."
One major Japanese bank has allocated only 60 million dollars to
the problem, the agency said, in contrast to the US Chase Manhattan
Corp.'s plan to spend 300 million dollars and Citicorp's 600 million
dollars spending.
While the latest hardware and software uses four-digit years in
handling data incorporating times or dates, older systems -- which
identify 1999 as simply "99" -- will mistake 2000 for 1900.
It is feared the problem will disrupt a wide range of
transactions and economic activity worldwide, hitting
information-technology dependent sectors such as finance the

(Wed May 20 1998 11:38 - ID#31868)
Ahhhhhh, Lock&Load - I have several zillion shares of TNX, I have been following
them for a very long time. I believe them to be one of the top exploration plays on the planet. I firmly think they will show results in the millions of ounces of the gold stuff and be worth more than the adjacent Sutton property

(Wed May 20 1998 11:50 - ID#36156)
Suharto Has Until Friday To Resign

(Wed May 20 1998 11:54 - ID#284255)
Global Positioning System Hits Snag Next Year - The Other 2000 Bug
The don't mention the other GPS bug.
The one the USG has with their code that runs the whole GPS system.
And they have said that that bug may not be fixed till after Y2K.

(Wed May 20 1998 11:58 - ID#347235)
@ Skinney
I think I speak for most Americans when I tell you to kiss our collective
tuchas' and if you don't undertand that it translates to @SSSSSSS

(Wed May 20 1998 11:58 - ID#288156)
CNBC --Bergstrom (sp?) sez....

$USD overvalued by 15 - 20%

That makes GOLD a STEAL folks!

(Wed May 20 1998 11:59 - ID#31868)
Now Albright says Suharto should step down for a democratic transition and
the world just gets better and better. Ah, yeah...

(Wed May 20 1998 12:03 - ID#284255)
Bug prompts world recession warning
"Just as oil is a vital resource for our global economy, so is information. If the supply of information is disrupted, many economic activities will be impaired, if not entirely halted."
He expected this year would be "horrible" for most of Asia but said the mainland, seeking to fill the regional leadership role left vacant by Japan, would not devalue its currency.
Year 2000 bug threatens phone service
There's a 50% to 60% chance each major carrier will suffer at
least one failure of a mission critical system,
Small, midsize and foreign-based carriers will be affected most.
France, Germany, Japan as well as many countries in southeast
Asia, central Africa and Latin America have spent less time and
resources to fix the problem.
Australia lags far behind in compliance
AUSTRALIA is still behind on fixing the year 2000 problems, says a US industry specialist. Vice president for Year 2000 issues at Computer Associates, Mark Stabler, is a member of a Washington committee advising John Koskinen, President Clinton's Y2K guru.

(Wed May 20 1998 12:03 - ID#347235)
@ Skinny, ALL
Skinny sorry about the superfluous e fat fingers.

All, Maddy ALLDYKE is at it again! Tells Suharto to resign, although I also think he needs to go, MADDY has no business telling him,BIBI or any other head of state what to do.

(Wed May 20 1998 12:05 - ID#31868)
mozel - Mutually Assured Uncertainty
China to be crippled by 2000 computer glitch, experts say

(Wed May 20 1998 12:12 - ID#284255)
Browser based Oracle 11 apps may be too late for Y2K and Emu issues
" But BIS is a bit too close to the abbreviation for bullshit for my liking,"
G-8 to tackle Year 2000 problem
The United States and seven other leading industrialized countries will send experts on the millennium bug to meet in Moscow and coordinate efforts to protect computer systems when the year 2000 arrives.
To drink more vodka?
Y2K: Chicken Little Or Just Chicken?

(Wed May 20 1998 12:13 - ID#284255)
Browser based Oracle 11 apps may be too late for Y2K and Emu issues
" But BIS is a bit too close to the abbreviation for bullshit for my liking,"
G-8 to tackle Year 2000 problem
The United States and seven other leading industrialized countries will send experts on the millennium bug to meet in Moscow and coordinate efforts to protect computer systems when the year 2000 arrives.
To drink more vodka?
Y2K: Chicken Little Or Just Chicken?

(Wed May 20 1998 12:16 - ID#227290)
Market Comments
To all:

First, more cliches: Gold is hanging on by its fingernails. Hold That Line! A Rumble in the Jungle. Etc.

Gold has risen $1.00 after first dropping $1.20 in early trading. This could be another reversal Wednesday. Viewed by itself, gold looks pretty good and as though it will pass the test of holding its uptrend line.

The fly in the ointment right now is the XAU. Although it is up slightly, I'd like to see it outpacing gold to the upside. Then I'd be more confident that gold will move higher in the short term.

The dollar index has come off some this morning. If Bergstrum, or Bergstein, or whatever his name is said that the dollar is 15-20% overvalued, that sounds like statements we've heard in the past designed to send a message to the currency traders to bring the price of the dollar down.

I know I'm straying into the area of fundamentals here, but if the currency traders bring the dollar down 15-20%, I imagine this will be very good for gold.

Silver has also turned today. After being down to new lows this morning, it has rebounded more than $.20.

Hang onto your hats. Keep your fingers crossed. And more cliches if I knew them.

Happy trading,

The Preacher

(Wed May 20 1998 12:18 - ID#335184)
MAD MADDY DIMDYKE just called for Suharto to abdicate !

Gee Wally,..., I wonder if there is any chance that Suharto will ask Maddy & WILLIE to step down ?



(Wed May 20 1998 12:19 - ID#284255)
Browser based Oracle 11 apps may be too late for Y2K and Emu issues
" But BIS is a bit too close to the abbreviation for bullshit for my liking,"
G-8 to tackle Year 2000 problem
The United States and seven other leading industrialized countries will send experts on the millennium bug to meet in Moscow and coordinate efforts to protect computer systems when the year 2000 arrives.
To drink more vodka?
Y2K: Chicken Little Or Just Chicken?

(Wed May 20 1998 12:22 - ID#288156)
tolerant1--A couple of months ago I posted an IT announcement
that was--essentially--whining about the fact that China took
its banks OFF the mainline hookup and did their own...remember?
One suspects that, as they came VERY late to the party--early
mainframes--no money for them sez Dr. North--they ( China )
may be in better shape than most!? Sobering thought eh? {:- (

(Wed May 20 1998 12:24 - ID#290118)
Bottom? How about this bottom from a naive perspective?
SILVER is not politically manipulated ( as much as GOLD ) so its market value may reflect a "real" price.
GOLD, on the other hand, is politically manipulated and 2/3rds the entire world stock of it is hoarded by central banks ( CBs ) .
GIVEN: The CBs unload it because they figure they don't need it anymore.
GIVEN: The remaining 1/3rd's free-market ( ha ha ) price is $300/ozt
GIVEN: The CBs gold dilutes the market by 2/3rds
GIVEN: The 1/4 of the CBs GOLD already leased or sold doesn't hit the market.
RESULT: The remaining CB GOLD cuts the "free market" price of gold in half - down to $150/ozt.

(Wed May 20 1998 12:25 - ID#266110)
@SDRer 11:58 --- An overvalued US$ of 15-20% / You're absolutely correct!
Within the next few months, the US$ will take a dive. This is due to several factors:
1. a burgeoning trade deficit
2. dumping of Treasuries by Asians ( like the April 13th "secret" sale of $12.1 billion of short-term notes ) .

With all of the bullying by the US on Japan, the likes of the BOJ can ( and will ) dump more money as their record breaking buying switches into record breaking selling. This will take the US$ on a trip to the cellar.

Because their is a direct correlation between the holdings of US treasuries by foreign banks and the performance of the current WS mania markets. So, when the foreing banks dump, the markets will tumble -- and along with them, the US$.

It happened in Mexico. It happened in SE Asia. And its going to hit the US.

NOTE: The fall of the US$ is one way to extinguish debt as billions and trillions are lost. "Wealth" by current standards will be lost overnite. But those who have stored their wealth ( true wealth ) in the form of tangible PMs ( and the like ) , will ride above the turmoil as people scurry for a safe-haven. Wealth will be transferred. So continue with your purchases of PMs and wait for the shoe to drop. You will be rewarded handsomely for your preparations. ---IMHO

(Wed May 20 1998 12:31 - ID#284255)
I am a bear here.
I going out on a limb to call a crash alert.
Warning signs are flashing.
Swing chart is pointing to a sudden downdraft very soon, a-la Oct'97

I am presuming PM's will be hurt hard in this event.

Next week shoud see volatility go crazy.

Beware and bewarned!!!
Of course I could well be wrong.

(Wed May 20 1998 12:34 - ID#284255)
It's a grave problem - very dark down there.,1051,SAV-9805180194,00.html

(Wed May 20 1998 12:53 - ID#340459)
Folks, What's with XAU and Stocks, they are not moving up, Inspite of Silver move even SSC is static
Any Comments

(Wed May 20 1998 12:56 - ID#228100)
Dump US Dollars? -- Why?
Why would Japan and other nations let the value of the dollar drop by 20-30%? Over the next year or two, it just wouldn't make sense.
- To move assets OUT of US dollars, they'd have to move them IN somewhere else. Where else would they put their assets? Everywhere else ( especially Japan and Europe ) seems extremely unstable.
- Japanese banks have huge holdings in US securities. With their current banking problems, they don't need to see the value of these assets shrink by 20-30%!
- Since just about everything Japan buys is priced in dollars ( oil and virtually all other commodities ) , if the dollar drops, the price of all their imports will surge, causing serious problems with INFLATION.

(Wed May 20 1998 13:00 - ID#333126)
has anyone posted this yet?

IMF to turn off tap to Indonesia! hmm...

(Wed May 20 1998 13:00 - ID#290118)
From the Land of Hoth
GungaDin, you state People who are in an economic decline stop buying gold, they need what little is coming in to buy food, water, etc. I agree - been there, done that - sold the gold to pay bills when business slumped here. Gold is a luxury compared to having water ( a good filter ) , adequate food and secure shelter. When I buy more gold and silver it will be for 1 ) portable store of wealth ( better than cans of beans ) , and 2 ) medium of exchange to buy what I forgot to stockpile - ergo 1/10 oz gold coins and various silver coins.
Sharefin, do you know of Hodur and the derivation of the name Hoth used in The Empire Strikes Back ( 2nd Star Wars movie )

(Wed May 20 1998 13:02 - ID#413109)
one Day a market doesn't make
But it sure feels good to see Si up 17cents, and gold up a bit too,
and Little John Oo chandit?
Keep the faith guys!!

(Wed May 20 1998 13:05 - ID#27341)

(Wed May 20 1998 13:11 - ID#373284)
Year2000 - therein lies the problem the world faces eh...the dollar must go in
order for the rest of the world to get back any sense of stability. Gold brings stability in a world gone mad, full of lies and sweeping up and down movements of paper money which is controlled by political BS and EGO and thieving bankers who are the scum of the earth, hiding behind closed doors and not reporting the truth about their obviously criminal activities.

In a word, honor, there is no honor in a fiat currency system, none.

(Wed May 20 1998 13:23 - ID#25171)
@ Lock&Lode SILVER
Difficult request

The last leg of the bear market in SILVER extends from 05/23/87 to 03/13/93

On a nearby future adjusted basis SILVER went from 970.2 on 05/23/87 down to 353.5 on 03/13/93 after having tested the mid 350s already on 02/23/91 with a low of 356.8. Chartists would call thatadouble bottom , until proven wrong.

The beautifull thing about it is that the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level from this downtrend is 7.34 and ohhhhh surprise the high of the july future on 02/05/1998 ( top of my wave 1early this year ) was 738.It fits nicely and some anti-chartist would say that you could have a chart show anything and its contrary.

Still , a take profit order would have been better placed at 725.Easy to say that now?

Now, I like to think of myself more as a fundamental trader than a technician , even though charts can be helpfull and lots of traders look at them ( self-fulfilling prophecy? ) The debate between technicians and fundamentalists has no merit in my opinion as all technical and fundamental information is in a spot price .This of course doesn't preclude your right to think that a spot price is wrong. ( otherwise what would we be doing here! )

Timing is difficult and I will disappoint you.I can call a level and think it is a buy ( or a sell ) .But to tell when market turns will occur or how long a trend ( or no trend ) will last, I am not qualified.

On the other hand , I still think that INDIA 's demand is more price and mooson ( good crop or bad crop ) sensitive than tributary to US sanctions.

INDIA refrained from buying lately due to high spot prices and I think this will change now unless the rupiah freefalls.

The deficit ( demand versus mining and scrap supply ) of 150 to 200 M ounces per year will soon become unbearable and prices will have to adjust on the upside.There are tons of other reason which make me like PM but the purpose of this post was not to get into that.


(Wed May 20 1998 13:36 - ID#388209)
Take a look at the Dec / May charts for Dow Indus, Trans, & Utes @ c3 of today's WSJ ! I'm no expert, but they sure look like they all already have rolled over. Today, all indicies are positive, including S&P, but market breadth remains decidedly negative. Huummm... what could be holding this market up ? Asian flight to "quality" or PPT ? If I were asian money looking for a quality harbor, I'd be looking at the T Bills Or Au, not a bloated equities market denominated in an expensive currency.

As to S&P collapse & impact on Precious Shares, IMHIPO, it will depend on whether it is a market event correction, which will be bad for all equities or perhaps a banking panic touched off by derivitives & Ailing Tiger defaults. Indonesia may be the blue print for other Tigers to tell the IMF to forget about socialization of Major Money Center Bank debt
( Tokyo, NY, London, Paris & Franfurt ) .
BTW, I believe it was you who scooped the Dynamic Donald ( pronounced, the most profound of his finds ) on the post RE NUCLEAR DERIVITIVE DEFAULTS at JPM, Chase & those darlings at BT ( couldn't happen to a nicer bunch of money changers ) My guess is that JPM can't find a suitor for the same reason that Yamaichi went under without a white Knight; they can't put a rational & believable figire on their losses ! ) .
This makes a fine detonator for the final blow off, but since I'm guessing they will not have to disclose these losses until mid-July, that is when the fat will be smeared on the wall for all to read for a final melt down. No doubt these type losses propelled Citicorp into the hands of Travelers & I wager this is what RR & AG were explaining to Slick last week in Monica's oral orriffice !
IMHIPO, the May correction will be a general market event with negative blow back effect on Au Shares liquidity & therefor I am a frog hair away from buying XAU puts.
Some body stop me or give me the courage !

Thanks for your diligent work, generously shared & for your insights.



(Wed May 20 1998 13:36 - ID#228100)
Dump US Dollars?
Let me elaborate a bit regarding my last post. In the next year or two, Gold and PM's are going to be the place to be! ( Probably, that's why we're all here at Kitco! ) Even WHEN that happens, the value of the dollar will go down at about the same rate as the other currencies.

Japan is not going to dump US dollars any time soon.

When panic hit Mexican and Asian markets, assets were moved into the gold ole USA. There's no other place for assets to move!

(Wed May 20 1998 13:37 - ID#266110)
@Year2000 11:56 --- Dropping US$ based on foreign dumping of US Treasuries
As you have presented some challenges, I will counter back.

1. Evidence of dumping already occuring. As we know, there was a $12.1 billion dumping of US Treasuries on April 13th. If US Treasuries are so good, then why did they dump that much? Why didn't they hold on to them as you claim they should for another 2 or so years.

2. Your target of 2 ( or so ) years. Why do you limit your prediction to 2 years and not 5 or 10? And if you target 2 years, then why not 18 months, 12 months, or 6 months.

3. Current US Debt. How long will foreigners continue to gobble up US Treasuries with the kind of mounting debt as it accumulates and compounds upon itself. Even if they don't dump right away, might they not stop buying, which in turn, can result in a shock to the Treasuries market?

4. Downturn in the Wall Street mania. A sudden redirection ( downward ) of the Stock market will invariably result in tarnishing of the US$. The main reason why the US$ is doing so well right now is the so-called "growth" that is occurring in the US - as based upon the performance of the stock market. Real growth is a paltry 2% while the market is reflecting 30-40% gains. This cannot be sustained much longer. Once the Cinderella story comes to an end, money will flee to other mechanisms. I don't think that it is feasible for the market to continue its stratospheric rise for another 2 years before a tarnishing ( or meltdown ) occurs.

5. Euro - the new kid on the block. If, according to good investing principles, it makes sense to spread your risk over many different mechanisms, then why shouldn't Japan and the like buy a few Euro bonds? Is everyone brainwashed into thinking the US is the only way to play? If Japan decides to redirect just 10% of their holdings in US bonds to the Euro, it will have an impact. This is due to the automatic market "factoring" of continued buying and holding of US Treasuries. If foreign entities break away from this factored pattern, and the historical pattern suddenly shifts in favor of Euro-bonds, then there will be a shock to the Treasuries market. Then the US$ will react in kind and a downturn will ensue.

6. Rising Trade Deficit. With the current strond US$, Amercians continue to spend and drive the trade deficit up. How long can this continue before there is a "correction" and the trade deficit comes back to bite with its own impact. That is one reason why I argue for a weaker dollar. We cannot continue to send US$ overseas without them coming home to roost. When they do, there will be a weakening of the $.

7. A Slowdown of Corporate Investment and Productivity. All of the gains in stocks is based on the public outbidding each other, whereby driving the prices higher and higher. Unquestionable proof of this is evidenced by the ever climhing P/E ratios to 40 or 60 or 211 ( such as Lucent Technologies ) . Corporations are precipitously cantilevered out there right now. And they've been cooking the books to make people believe that "there's value in them there stocks".

8. Wage Growth. Some sources say we are experiencing a 4% growth in wages. With all of the other problems out there, this puts additional pressure on the economy and the $. A 4% wage growth against that backdrop of only a 2% GDP does not portend well. If productivity doesn't improve ( which I don't expect that it will ) , then the impact is likely to be reflected in a weakening $. You have to give somewhere. Simply put, if you are printing more money than productivity warrants, this is pure and simple infation ( in its classical sense ) . And when you have inflation, that means the $ devalues. There's no other way out.

(Wed May 20 1998 13:37 - ID#373284)

(Wed May 20 1998 13:40 - ID#373284)
newtron - re:sharefin and Donald -
It was a tie due to the time differential. Lets keep two of the best happy eh. A gulp to the winners...

(Wed May 20 1998 13:41 - ID#57232)
Were those failed US satellite launches in Chinese missles all failures?
A Matt Drudge exclusive - encryptation hardware missing from recovered material from crashed satellite! What would you do if you were a Chinese military man, and you had US encryption devices right under your nose? Ignore the temptation to take one?

(Wed May 20 1998 13:51 - ID#254269)
Lock & Lode, your 13.37, well reasoned, makes sense to me. Do we know who
sold the 12 B of US Treasuries on 4/13 ?

John Disney__A
(Wed May 20 1998 13:52 - ID#24135)
Takes more than faith
Reify ..
enjoy it while it lasts..
Oo chandit

(Wed May 20 1998 13:54 - ID#36156)
Late-Session Selling Trend.
This is getting pretty predictable, yes?

HenryD ( Go G... oh, why bother? )

(Wed May 20 1998 13:55 - ID#298259)
Maybe you answered your own question...

What could be holding this market up? Asian flight to "quality" or PPT? If I were asian money looking for a quality harbor, I'd be looking at the T Bills...

long bond yield 5.93% to 5.88% today.

(Wed May 20 1998 13:57 - ID#254269)
Question for Sir Isaac newtron re your 13.36 , can you please explain something
to me ? You say the indices are positive when the market remains decidely
negative ? How much of a factor is one or two stocks in the DJIA ? I understand what you are staying but what will cause the market to "turn on a dime "? TIA.

(Wed May 20 1998 13:58 - ID#340459)
I think a lot of money is going to Bonds right now..
The XAU action today looks strange, specially Silver companies..

(Wed May 20 1998 13:59 - ID#373284)
Brussels calls for 20 percent EU savings tax
Copyright  1998
Copyright  1998 AFP

BRUSSELS ( May 20, 1998 10:20 a.m. EDT ) - The European Commission on Wednesday called for a 20 percent withholding tax to be levied on savings held in EU countries by non-residents in a bid to crack down on thriving cross-border fraud.

The proposal, which has to be approved unanimously by all 15 European Union governments to become law, is aimed at closing a loophole that is estimated to be costing them hundreds of millions of dollars in lost revenue.

Because of differences in national legislations and the relatively low level of cooperation between neighboring tax authorities, it is currently easy, for example, for Germans to stash their savings in neighboring Luxembourg and avoid paying any tax on the interest paid.

Such cross-border shelter will become even simpler to arrange after next year when 11 European countries adopt a single currency, the euro.

A similar proposal for a 15 percent minimum withholding tax on savings was blocked in 1989 by Britain and Luxembourg.

The commission's latest initiative however is seen as having a greater chance of success, although the negotiations on the fine print are expected to be extremely tough.

Finance ministers agreed in principle in December on the need to take measures to curb harmful tax competition between EU states.

Particular concern has been expressed about the use of low company taxation regimes as a way of "poaching" jobs and investment.

The commission's proposal is also sufficiently flexible to allow countries that are opposed to a compulsory withholding tax -- such as Britain -- to go along with it.

Under the proposed directive, countries could opt instead to provide information about interest payments to the tax authorities in the account holders country of residence.

The legislation would apply only to residents of the EU. It would not cover interest income paid to residents of third countries.

Mario Monti, the European Commissioner who drafted the proposal, said it would "remove a significant distortion," to the operation of the EU's single market and reduce governments' need to raise finance through payroll or other taxes on labor, thereby boosting job creation.

Monti denied that his plans would, if implemented, spark a flight of capital out of the EU into countries such as Switzlerland. He also played down fears that the fledgling market in euro bonds would be forced offshore.

The proposals are to be presented to finance ministers for the first time in Luxembourg on June 5, clearing the way for detailed negotiations to get underway under Austria's EU presidency in the second half of the year.

Monti said he would seek a clear commitment from Britain to apply the legislation to its dependent territories Gibraltar, the Isle of Man and the Channel Islands, all of which are currently tax havens.

Luxembourg has indicated that it regards the 20 percent minimum tax as too high and a threat to the financial services industries on which its economy depends.

The alternative option of passing on information could face difficulties in EU countries which have strong traditions of total banking secrecy.

(Wed May 20 1998 14:00 - ID#340459)
Palladium down by fifty bucks.
That is a roller coaster

John Disney__A
(Wed May 20 1998 14:00 - ID#24135)
Palladium ...
to all ..
Just did a POWER DIVE.

(Wed May 20 1998 14:02 - ID#233199)
Anybody know why?

(Wed May 20 1998 14:03 - ID#388209)

Even a mere grasshopper like me must give the devil his due when timing is all !
Comparing The Donald to The Sharefin would be like pitting the Chicago Bulls vs the Bears; a collossal collision of irreistable cataclysmic natural forces, against which all civilized nations must band together to prevent at all cost !

A two shot guulp to thee!

I remain,



(Wed May 20 1998 14:04 - ID#246224)
Only months to prepare
Y2K panics will begin between November 1998 and February 1999. We have only a few months left to cash out and prepare. Americans are, basicly, ahead of the world in awareness and you can see where we are in that :- (
Time is dribbling away as most organizations have hardly begun the inventory and assessment phases of their projects. The US Navy has slipped their inventory report deadline from March 1998 to November 1998. At some point in the Fall of 1998 the seriousness of this situation will begin to sink into the consciousness of the public. There will be a period of emotional paralysis in which this new found perspective will not be acted upon. Then the flood gates will burst open as panic grips the hearts of men everywhere. This future is upon us now.

1999 is to late to prepare. You will be competing with everyone else for an evaporating supply of goods. You will be competing with everyone else to cash out of investments. You will be competing with everyone else to find cash, food and other preparations such as gold and silver. The government will step in to halt a landslide of public panic. Just as in Indonesia, where they slapped a 750,000 Rupiah ( US$60 ) limit on withdrawls from banks and then shut the banks down a few days later.

Make no mistake, we are not talking about a situation in which one can look for opportunities to "make a killing". We are talking about the necessities of survival in a world thrown back 100 years ( yet without the tools or infrastructure that support that lifestyle, in the first world that is ) . If you do not recognize the difference between these two scenarios then you will be hardly prepared for the worst. Right now you can prepare for the worst with little cost or effort other than overcoming complacency.

You have from 3 to 9 months to prepare for this worst case scenario.


Let me add here a personal note on this. Last year from May through December, while in prayer, my Lord Jesus Christ revealed 21 scripture citations to me which describe the very scenario which I have been expressing here for the past 4 months or so. These citations came to me as visual impressions of book, chapter and verse, without uncertainty or question. The passages as a whole describe a judgement which will thoroughly destroy the arrogance and pride of modern men and nations. At first I hardly was able to take in the panorama of these passages without great trembling. My life has not been the same since for the sobriety and solemnity it has induced in my heart.

People can debate all day long about the possible effects of year 2000. I know what God has said to me it will be. I am not morbidly attracted to doomsday scenarios, nor have I been looking for the destruction of authorities or nation. I am no anarchist in sheeps clothing. But I know what He has revealed to me. I share this here with you because I care about your future with regard to Him and in this present life as well.

Take care.

(Wed May 20 1998 14:04 - ID#27341)

(Wed May 20 1998 14:04 - ID#373284)
CFB - Clifton Mining - silver-
is screaming buy me!

(Wed May 20 1998 14:08 - ID#254269)
where is the 1st annual reunion going to be in NYC ?

(Wed May 20 1998 14:08 - ID#373284)
newtron - Wild Turkey is excellent stuff, I loved the Freudian slip
The BEAR vs. THE BULLS...a GIANT Gulp to ya..............................

John Disney__A
(Wed May 20 1998 14:11 - ID#24135)
Im Sorry Reify
.. a life's work .. says PMs
... well back to the old
drawing board... Oo chandit..
.. indeedy weedy

Mike K__A
(Wed May 20 1998 14:14 - ID#153283)
I'd be interested in knowing the 21 verses.

(Wed May 20 1998 14:15 - ID#410198)
JTF,a little personal stuff,as a member of South African Defence Force when we faced the worlds
weapons embargo in particular French Mirage jet fighters,we simply did reverse engineering,and built the our own bigger faster today Armscor supplys the think the Chinese have not done reverse engineering on encruption boards is being plain stupid......that rocket blew up for a reason....whats $200 million nothing...compared with the info they got.......

(Wed May 20 1998 14:16 - ID#340459)
Who sells near the close everyday ??
Some strange f&*kers have been doing this every day, leaves you in a limbo about the direction, Morning is always very positive and when they have picked your pocket, the sellers come in. I guess they have it all figured out like Vegas..

(Wed May 20 1998 14:20 - ID#255217)
Palladium madness and perversity of silver
The trading pit in palladium must be a zoo, Pd ( June ) abt $355 off $43! Pd traders must have nerves and other body parts of steel ( or brass ) .

Think I'll stick with silver. Is this the real thingie or is Ag going to show its perverse colors and head back down soon? Think I'll ask Warren.

(Wed May 20 1998 14:22 - ID#153102)
@SDRer @Donald
Well, I have thought a little about the legal implications of the Euro as explicated by the New York lawyer on the web page you pointed to.

His essay reminded me of something I posted about a decision of the Japanese Supreme Court which transferred liability arbitrarily for the good of society or words to that effect. The no-law rule of the collective.

This debt system has brought and will bring untold suffering to people. People would be wise to examine their agreements now.

(Wed May 20 1998 14:27 - ID#251166)
@ Allen (USA) re. your 14:04
Yes, I'd also be very interested which 21 verses were revealed to you.

Thanks! dj

(Wed May 20 1998 14:28 - ID#27341)
I wonder if warren has sold his yet???
Would not be imposible.

John Disney__A
(Wed May 20 1998 14:29 - ID#24135)
Where is Another anyway ??
I miss him. I thought he had an interesting
input. Also I found him polite, well behaved,
humble, adult, and intelligent. He was not
defensive, nor arrogant. I never understood
the fairly violent rection to him that some
of us expressed. Why ?? Envy ?? Resentment ??
Any comment ??

(Wed May 20 1998 14:29 - ID#289357)

I've been watching the exceptional volume today, too. I saw one block of over 200,000 shares trade this morning - must be institutional buying. There's no news that I'm aware of, but it appears from a technical standpoint that DROOY will be the one of the first to break this downtrend we've been in. A close at 3 3/16 or higher would do it, I believe. Maybe that's creating the big volume.

(Wed May 20 1998 14:29 - ID#252150)
Alberich@I agree that the main purpose of the EURO is to "Soros proof"
their currencies. I am surprised at the # of luminaries such as J. Rogers
who seemed to miss this simple but important reason. Anyone who has any doubts about the importance of protecting currencies from the parasitic hedge funds just needs to look at the suffering that millions of people in SEAsia have been subjected to.

(Wed May 20 1998 14:30 - ID#290118)
"FALL OF 98" - already even! Then the "FALL OF 99"
Allen, so your thought presages a lousy Christmas season for us retailers. And I can reckon next year's summer tourist season will be shot! That is why I value this Kitco forum!. I need to start now with decisions for Christmas orders and use this summer's tourist season to liquidate as much stock as I can - AND CONVERT THE CASH TO GOLD & SILVER!
Half off all this stuff - I just hope the panic doesn't clobber THIS summer's tourist season - it will be my last chance to unload inventory.
Thank you for your thoughts.

(Wed May 20 1998 14:30 - ID#373284)
Yes it would be impossible...

(Wed May 20 1998 14:31 - ID#373284)
Take a peek at ING.TO today...

(Wed May 20 1998 14:33 - ID#251166)
@ John Disney & ALL re. ANOTHER
He's on the USA Gold site now.

(Wed May 20 1998 14:33 - ID#286230)
John Disney__A (Where is Another anyway
With the last Sienfeld now history he maybe out looking for another writers's job.

John Disney__A
(Wed May 20 1998 14:34 - ID#24135)
I would not be surprised ..
jonesy.. I bet he has ..

(Wed May 20 1998 14:36 - ID#251166)
@ John Disney
Seriously. Check it out.

(Wed May 20 1998 14:37 - ID#255217)
@ tolerant1; your 14:04
How do I follow CFB on the internet? What URL? If I wanted to buy some can you suggest a broker the handles Canadian stocks? My broker is mostly US stuff.

John Disney__A
(Wed May 20 1998 14:44 - ID#24135)
Selby .. that's Seinfeld I think and
shall I file that under "Resentment"??

Jonesy .. How am I gonna check it
out ?? You got his phone number ??

(Wed May 20 1998 14:45 - ID#251166)
@ Allen (USA) re. your 21 verses
Probably not forum-specific, I realize. Please email me at .

Thanks tons! dj

(Wed May 20 1998 14:46 - ID#43460)
ChasAbar_A, Retired Soldier, et al.
ChasAbar_A re your 1:21 post. Actually I was thinking more of a Valley Girl accent. Your story about the Chinese imports was very pithy though humourous. I went to a sporting goods store yesterday. They had six aisles of Chinese, Malasian, Korean and Indonesian sports shoes. I found that as inappropriate as the row of hocky sticks ( with springtime temps approaching 100 degrees F in the south and midwest ) . You'd be hard pressed to find any American exports to any of those countries. IMHO

Retired Soldier: I agree with skinny in part But I wonder if he just may not understand the culture. America is composed of ethnic regions and even now is not truly one nation. Plus it is too big, like Ma Bell before the baby bell spinoff. We need to divide into a series of smaller countries which could develop their own ethnicity and folkways. IMHO

They would not be necessarily lose their status as world powers. The country which would be composed of the former Confederate States of America would still have the 4th largest GDP in the world. The country composed of the midwest would be 6th. We could end a lot of old disagreements by ceding Nevada, California, Arizona and NM to Mexico. IMHO

A problem would be moving Louisiana up to Quebec, but I'm sure that isn't insurmountable. Not at all as difficult as making the the Peoples Republic of New York City cough up all our gold its been hoarding for so many years. ( %-^} ) IMHO

(Wed May 20 1998 14:47 - ID#36156)
John Disney - RE: ANOTHER

(Wed May 20 1998 14:47 - ID#251166)
@ John Disney

(Wed May 20 1998 14:48 - ID#286230)
John Disney
File it under Comedy

(Wed May 20 1998 14:49 - ID#289357)
tolerant1 @ TSE:ING

YIKES !! Can this volume be correct for Indochina Goldfields ?? showing 54 Million shares traded today. The weekly chart still looks like a downtrend to me, but I'll bet the On-balance volume indicator really went North on this action. What's the news?

(Wed May 20 1998 14:50 - ID#27341)
Just a thought, if i were warren and was about to anounce i just bought heeps of silver, and having some idea what efect this may have on the price, i may think of selling into the market not long after? but you guys would probable be aware of that happening??

(Wed May 20 1998 14:50 - ID#373284)
Argent - gulp to ya...Namaste'

Gusto Oro
(Wed May 20 1998 14:51 - ID#377235)
Argent, here is the Yahoo URL for CFTN quotes. CFTN is the bulletin board Clifton so your broker should be able to buy it. I picked some up the other day at 1/2. Currently trading at .4375. Don't pay too much--put in a limit order bid at .4375 and see if it goes through. On the Alberta Exchange, Clifton trades at .61 Canadian right now but when you figure the currency difference it's about the same. --AG

Gusto Oro
(Wed May 20 1998 14:53 - ID#377235)

(Wed May 20 1998 14:54 - ID#304282)
I also would like to know the verses. Thanks. I enjoy your posts.

(Wed May 20 1998 14:54 - ID#373284)
SilverBaron - that must be a mistake
500,000+ not 54million

(Wed May 20 1998 14:56 - ID#43460)
squirrel , exactly what do you retail?
If you're a sporting goods dealer like the one in my town with 20,000 pairs of cosmetically different tennis shoes ( every damned one of them too narrow for me! ) and 500 hocky sticks, then you've got a problem with any downturn. But what if you sell screws and fasteners, traditional tools or how-to books? Some professions like bankruptcy lawyers and psychiatrists would do well in a downturn, as would solidly prepared schoolteachers ( particularly those who can teach manual arts trades ) . And auctioneers should have a field day selling all those shoes. Not to mention coin dealers, who'll become the new bankers and do ok until they start to loan on spec! ( $-^] ) IMHO

(Wed May 20 1998 14:56 - ID#373284)
Argent - Just saw the last part of your post. Gusto Oro is
correct, your broker SHOULD be able to buy it.

(Wed May 20 1998 14:57 - ID#373284)
WB likes a lot of fore-play in his investments, double digit silver will get him to sell...

John Disney__A
(Wed May 20 1998 14:57 - ID#24135)
Gagnrad ..
Your comment to RT will be the
wave of the future I believe and hope.
Fewer big countries .. and people
that are close to and can accept a more
representive governemnt that does
not assume a life of its own ( as it has
done in the US ) .
Jugoslavia was a start. RSA would
do well to split off the Western Cape
( mainly colored ) , and the Eastern Cape
( mainly Xhosa speaking ) . Natal and the
Transvaal can be left to figure it
out for themselves.
I particularly like giving California
to Mexico.
and the Eastern Cape

(Wed May 20 1998 14:58 - ID#342376)
I don't blame ANOTHER for going to USAGold one bit. As John Disney has said, he was always a gentleman. He answered questions, but wanted to remain anonymous. What better way to be anonymous than to use the internet. His posts were highly intelligent and made me think. I suppose it is possible he is a fraud, but as I have stated on here before, any one of us could be. The USAGold site is better suited for him. He won't have to put up with "biting ears". It's a shame he's gone from here though, as he added an element of mystery and a unique style. I still maintain he got too much attention and that bothered some on this site. Humility is something I would ascribe to ANOTHER, but something that appears to be lacking for some of our posters.

(Wed May 20 1998 14:59 - ID#20748)
Locking the stables
on high tech exports to China.

John Disney__A
(Wed May 20 1998 15:00 - ID#24135)
Good One ..
Selby ..
You're the scriptwriter..

(Wed May 20 1998 15:03 - ID#373284)
John Disney - Nah, I like the idea of giving Mexico to Texas - Texico or giving
giving Texas to Mexico - TexMex - nice ring to either one of them. Course then we would have to fence in OK and give it to STUDIO_R and call it the O'TAY Coral.

Flip California off the top downward so you could drive to Hawaii.

(Wed May 20 1998 15:03 - ID#287280)
Mozel, Thank you (yet once again)...
If you have any ideas on how one might wield the 'attention-getter'
2 X 4, I for one would be delighted to hear it/them! Thank you again for taking the time and trouble. It is appreciated. {:- ) BBML

John Disney__A
(Wed May 20 1998 15:04 - ID#24135)
Woops ..
Gagnrad ..
please ignore that last
"and the eastern cape"
( experimenting with proxy server
and experiment is failing )

(Wed May 20 1998 15:09 - ID#36156)
I guess we're assuming ANOTHER won't be back, in which case I'd
have to say that Kitco just lost some of its luster. While that's shameful enough, my real worry is what will we do to the next unique and interesting poster that comes along?

And if one doesn't come along, will we then turn on ourselves and destroy what remains?

We seem to be headed into cyber-extinction at our own hand... enjoy it while you can.

John Disney__A
(Wed May 20 1998 15:11 - ID#24135)
Thats what I say ..
and what the hell ..
lets give Canada to Louisiana and
call it Canadiana and give Washington
DC to Virginia so we can finally get
to burn it down.

(Wed May 20 1998 15:13 - ID#266110)
@tolerant1 14:31 --- ING today... I see it flatlining at 2.00.
Is there any point other than that to be pointed out? If so fill me in.

(Wed May 20 1998 15:14 - ID#411149)
Reply to-
Date: Wed May 20 1998 14:02
Anybody know why?

Reply-SMART MONEY IS ACCUMULATING!!!!! The WORD is getting around
about that RICH DEEP VEIN plus all their other valuable resources!

Tally Ho

Tally Ho

(Wed May 20 1998 15:14 - ID#27251)
Allen, I would also be interested in your special revelation, and if you wouldn't mind sharing it with me you could write me at

(Wed May 20 1998 15:15 - ID#342376)
@ HenryD
Nice post......

(Wed May 20 1998 15:18 - ID#286230)
John Disney: We already burned Washington to the ground--came back anyway.

I like the idea of some historian --probably an unemployed economist --searching through old Kitco files--about 2030 and finding the ANOTHER posts and the reaction to them. Of course with gold at $30 000 I guess it will seem like a farfetched story.

(Wed May 20 1998 15:18 - ID#246224)
Mark K, jonesy and tricky
I'll post them here once late this evening. That should suffice. I have hesitated on this as it is not part of the site purpose, but feel that it should be tolerated as much as the astrological posts which are sometimes expressed.

(Wed May 20 1998 15:19 - ID#176200)
Do you have a website for your business? I saw a reference to your handle
on Gary North's web page. If not, sorry for the confusion...

Regards O.L.

not speaking for my employer...

(Wed May 20 1998 15:22 - ID#25171)
At least , until now , the KITCO crowd has the decency to respect your post.Hope it will stay that way.
Takes courage to expose yourself in such a way.

(Wed May 20 1998 15:24 - ID#373284)
John Disney - Now you are talking. But Canadians would not know what to do
with real food!

(Wed May 20 1998 15:25 - ID#286230)
Post you views with enthusiasm.

(Wed May 20 1998 15:26 - ID#411331)
@Midas: You are right, somebody does short gold and silver just before the
close of COMEX each day. It's probably the same bunch that has frequently shorted gold at the beginning of COMEX trading. Gold is political. I suspect it is selling related to the EURO. The ECBs are trying to keep the POG as close to $300 as possible. The EMU must not appear to be creating a rival currancy to the US$ ( even though they are ) .
They will try to keep the POG down until after their JUNE 8 meeting, when they should announce the gold backing of the EURO. After that, anything goes. They may even be manipulating the price downwards in order to buy more! I don't think it is useful to get upset about minor fluctuations of gold around $300 when it is so far below the average price of $650 based on the past two centuries.
I was at a conference hosted by the NCE Resources Group this morning and heard David L. Smith speak. He is an economist and futurist, and contrarian. He lists the following FIVE STOCK MARKET MYTHS:




year duration loss % time to recover
1916 6 yrs 64 11 yrs
1929 3 yrs 90 30 yrs
1965 17 yrs 70 30 yrs

Major peaks occur on average every 33 yrs. The last one occurred 32 yrs ago.


1. Hearing "This time it's different".
2. Technical breakdown
3. Expectation of ever increasing prosperity, stock values
4. Economy is thriving: Good times.
5. Parabolic ( exponential ) ascent following an extended linear climb
6. Newbies entering the market
7. Greed rampant = cautions of overevaluations ignored
8. "New chips" outstrip "blue chips"
9. Mergers and Acquisitions frenzy grlps stock market
10. High Margin debt.

All of the above are present in the market right now, except the technical breakdown. ( Could the PPT mask this? ) The one that bothers me
the most is the high margin debt, not in conventional margin, but in the
form of options and derivatives etc. When this thing tanks, it will involve panic and could take out the real estate market as well, as many newbies have mortgaged their homes to be in the market. The flood of foreclosures will tank the property markets as well.

Since gold and shares are just above 25 year lows they may escape, particularly as most of the people holding them now are not newbies,

I don't know how well this carefully arranged summary is going to print out on the forum, but if it's messed, please don't blame me. I tried!

(Wed May 20 1998 15:26 - ID#290118)
Squirrel is apt to be a common trait/handle for those preparing for winter.
Nope, no website for my business. I cater to locals with faxes, copies, walk-in internet access, business & art supplies, stickers, craft punches, marbles ( yes I found my marbles ) , and a few bulk foods and kerosene fired cookers, lanterns and maybe more survivalist stuff.
Thanks for asking

(Wed May 20 1998 15:27 - ID#286230)
WE drink it just like everybody else!

(Wed May 20 1998 15:29 - ID#342315)
Somebody! re BAN I think geoffs
I lost my damn bookmark. Just talked to the co. May have a little enlightenment. Thanx, Charlie

(Wed May 20 1998 15:33 - ID#342376)
@ Allen(USA)
I'd like to hear them also. I love to hear different viewpoints. It's when they are shoved down people's throats that I object. You are a considerate man.

(Wed May 20 1998 15:34 - ID#255217)
tolerant1 & Gusto Oro
Thanks to you both and gulp to ya.

(Wed May 20 1998 15:38 - ID#266110)
@Allen -- Same as crazytimes, et al / please post
I think that if you preface your post and leave it up to Kitcoites to view or not to view - you're covered. So far you have at least 4-5 requests from the group.

(Wed May 20 1998 15:39 - ID#20748)
Even Ted Arnold is bullish
on silver. In his morning commentary today, he said that a sharp short covering rally is expected to start soon, because a big investor is rumored to be calling back metal loaned by him to short sellers. The rally is expected to raise the spot price from 5.75 to 6.00 range within the next few days.

(Wed May 20 1998 15:40 - ID#373284)
Lock&Load - I feel that they have tremendous upside when the metals move. In addition it appears to me that big money likes them and will pour large dollars in when ready. Robertson Stevens RSCOX owns a large chunk of them as well.

(Wed May 20 1998 15:43 - ID#266110)
@rhody 15:26 -- Good post and succinctly stated. It's a must read. least for those doubting Thomas' out there about the current stock market mania.

(Wed May 20 1998 15:46 - ID#373284)
Selby - and a gulp back at ya.
Actually I love Canada. I just can't shake the laughter from the movie Canadian Bacon with John Candy...the best part was I still can't tell who they were making more fun of, the Canadians or the Americans.


(Wed May 20 1998 15:48 - ID#210235)
@Heads up in you're in the USA and accumulating cash
for Y2K.

Be sure that you know the SAR laws. SAR - Suspicious Activity Report laws were enacted in 1996 that will reward bank tellers with 25% of ALL your assets if they turn you in and the gov't seizes your assets. If a teller thinks your cash transfer or withdrawal is suspicious, and turns you in, she might also not have done the routine paperwork and you're under the big guns. Totally aside from the big $$ incentive, it is now the legal obligation of the bank to report any single or cumulative transaction that, in their eyes, might be suspicious, starting up an inquiry that you won't be aware of until your first check bounces - after your assets are seized.

In short, if you MOVE $10,000 of more out of your bank account without filing a CTR ( currency transaction report ) , usually done by the bank, but YOUR responsibility. you can be arrested and have ALL your assets seized. It's part of the Banking Secrecy Act. If you move it in smaller amounts it's called "structuring" and carries a $250,000 fine and up to 5 years in jail. Plan on a couple of years, a court battle, and around $250,000 in legal fees to get it back.

It's not illegal to hold cash, but it's got red tape wrapped around it. Don't want to see any of my friends trip this invisible wire. You'll still be in the midst of the mess when the bell tolls.

(Wed May 20 1998 15:49 - ID#373284)
Allen - gulp to ya
And I say fire away...

(Wed May 20 1998 15:49 - ID#266110)
@tolerant1 --- RE: ING.TO / Talk to me, I'm ready to listen...
Are you the one who posted "great expectations" last week about future performance for ING? And if so would you be gracious enough to reiterate your statements as well as add a little more?

Maybe you can address some specifics like:
1. Basic strengths
2. Expectations
3. Expectations in light of the current Suharto fiasco
4. Upside potential

(Wed May 20 1998 15:51 - ID#255217)
135 years too late; but better late than never.
BURN Wash. D. C.? Isn't that where the Bureau of Engraving and Printing is? ... OK. But that leaves Ft. Worth; there is another one there ( Western Facility ) . BURN it, too? ... OK. I grew up in F. W. No loss. Any more? Go gold.

(Wed May 20 1998 15:58 - ID#342376)
@ Rhody
You mentioned in your post that all the signs are there for a bull market peak except a technical breakdown. I know from reading the Walker Letter that in the last week, only a few stocks have kept the index averages up. There have been more decliners than advancers. Does that qualify as technical breakdown? Forgive my ignorance, perhaps I don't understand what is meant by technical breakdown.

(Wed May 20 1998 16:06 - ID#267344)
rhody - yesterday you used the word "wetback"
I was wondering if you could give me a good definition of that word so that I can better invision the future you have predicted concerning human locusts invading "our" country. Please enlighten me with your profound wisdom. I guess I am currently in the dark.
- c

(Wed May 20 1998 16:07 - ID#252197)
safety first
Is it not logical that every working family in the

U.S. ( or in the whole world ) have a reserve supply

of cash and/or cash equivalents on hand at all times

( i.e., several hundred in currency [minimum] and/or

gold and silver coins, etc. ) for emergencies?

I am beginning to realize that our communication

systems are extremely vulnerable to failure at any

time. In case of war they will be the first thing to

go. Sabotage is also a great threat. Cataclysmic

occurrences ( both terrestrial and celestial ) are

real potentials at anytime.

The information age and all it encompasses is a

relatively new phenomenon. We are putting our full

faith and trust in this electronic age ( particularly,

satellite and computer technology ) for better or

for worse. This makes us very vulnerable to the

unforeseens. A similar analogy would be to put one's

full faith and trust in a new drug or food additive

without reliable, verifiable longitudinal studies

and resultant asfeguards.

I am amazed when I see construction workers whipping

out the check book to buy a six-pack or 10 gallons

of gas. Not many value cash ( or cash equivalents )

anymore, frightening! It is alarming to me to see

people put all their faith and trust in such a

fragile system that could so drastically change

within one hour.

When I was young it was common for the media, or

governmental agencies, even schools to provide

emergency information and education. Now it seems

as though all that is advised is to trust the

government, FEMA, or insurance companies to take

care of all our needs should an emergency arise.

This is also frightening.

I am concerned with the trend away from individual

responsibility, and the movement toward a community

responsibility. This type of trend works well in

theory but when the fire breaks out and everyone

heads for the exits it doesn't hold up.

I think it only reasonable that each individual

prepare to take responsibility for their own

survival needs under varying circumstances and

potential emergency vulnerabilities.

Cash and/or cash equivalents seem to me to be a

reasonable safeguard for every family and individual

( not to mention all the other survival items

frequenty discussed on this forum ) .

(Wed May 20 1998 16:09 - ID#287358)
Soros-proofing is not something Jimmy is unfamiliar with.

The two of them are partners in Apex Silver ( SIL ) and probably other
ventures. I think each is completely aware of what the other is doing.

(Wed May 20 1998 16:09 - ID#43460)
Mr disney re your post
So you see the trend, too? Scarey in a way.

Champion of Tax
(Wed May 20 1998 16:09 - ID#288234)
@John Disney
Please, no! We ( VA ) don't want DC. Give it back to MD. Destroy the chain, Key, Roosevelt, Memorial, 14th St. bridges, as well as the Metro tunnel & train bridge. No ferries either.

(Wed May 20 1998 16:10 - ID#217268)
I have followed your posts over the months with respect and admiration. Sir, you speak the truth. I believe we all would be agreeable to what you have to say.

(Wed May 20 1998 16:12 - ID#210235)
@Allen, a good friend
"A man should recognize among his acquaintances those with whom he should associate and those with whom he should not.

The ones with whom a man should not associate are those who are greedy, clever talkers, flatterers or wasters.

The ones with whom he should associate are those who are helpful, who are willing to share happinesses as well as sufferings, who give good advice and who have a sympathetic heart.

A true friend, the one with whom a man may safely associate, will always stick closely to the right way, will worry secretly about his friend's welfare, will console him in misfortune, will keep his secrets, and will always give him good advice.

It is very difficult to find a friend like this, and therefore, one should try very hard to be a friend like this. As the sun warms the fruitful earth, so a good friend shines in society because of his good deeds." Siddhartha

Allan, thanks for caring. If it doesn't violate your privacy, we'd be honored to share your vision. Thanks. Promey

(Wed May 20 1998 16:19 - ID#287358)

(Wed May 20 1998 16:22 - ID#410198)
Allan,let me add my voice,you are a brother.if they can't see the light let them feel the heat

(Wed May 20 1998 16:23 - ID#342376)
@ Prometheus 15:48
Thank you for that post, very informative. It means the first ones to prepare for Y2K may be the first to be punished. I am planning on buying some Gold coins within a week or so. I want to purchase some Mounties to help support Kitco as well as I like the fact that they are exactly one ounce. Now, from what I've read here, if I remember correctly, any gold coin purchase will show a transaction that the government, if it decided, could trace. Would there also be a transaction reported if it is over $10,000 much like bank reporting transactions over $10,000?

(Wed May 20 1998 16:25 - ID#20748)
Technology Sales to China
Seems the url posted by me did not work. Here's the story. Good old 'copy and paste'.

 House Blocks Tech Sales to China

By Tom Raum
Associated Press Writer
Wednesday, May 20, 1998; 3:22 p.m. EDT

WASHINGTON ( AP ) -- Amid allegations that
high-technology exports to China jeopardized national
security, the House voted overwhelmingly today to put
sharp limits on future exports and to condemn the
administration's past practices.

``Congress should be heard loud and clear before the
president travels to China next month,'' said Rep.
Floyd Spence, R-S.C., chairman of the House Armed
Services Committee and a sponsor of the legislation.

The vote was 417-4.

The measure approved by the GOP-led House, an amendment
to a $270 billion defense bill, would ban Clinton from
entering into new agreements with China on his trip
that involve technology transfers.

It was the first in a package of four amendments in
back-to-back votes as the House turned debate on the
annual defense spending bill into a platform for
criticizing the administration's China policy.

One measure also expected to pass, by Rep. Duncan
Hunter, R-Calif., would simply ban any further sales of
commercial satellites to China.

It would repeal a Bush administration-era law that
permitted the government to allow such exports in
certain cases.

``It's the prudent thing to put on the brakes on this
thing until we sort out how much damage has been
done,'' Hunter said.

Democrats did little to stop the onslaught -- and the
overwhelming nature of the vote reflected this -- as
one Republican after another rose to raise concerns
about accusations that 1996 campaign funds to Democrats
had come from a Chinese military officer.

The legislation passed today declared that Clinton's
decision to allow U.S. aerospace firms to export
satellites and related technology to China was ``not in
the national interest.''

The vote came as House Speaker Newt Gingrich moved to
establish a special committee to investigate
high-technology exports to China and the broader issue
of whether the Chinese government sought to buy

The White House today voiced skepticism about the
development, but said it would work with Congress
regardless of which committee investigates.''That's
their business, not ours,'' said White House spokesman
Mike McCurry.

Gingrich predicted House Democrats would overcome their
initial resistance and go along.

``I mean, are they going to boycott it?'' Gingrich said

Democrats today were pondering the new panel.

Gingrich said the investigation now has moved beyond
political fund raising into areas affecting national
security. The GOP-led House will vote early next month
on creating the panel. Gingrich predicted it would

At the White House, McCurry said, ``there's an
extensive congressional inquiry already under way'' of
the sale of satellite technology to China by U.S.
aerospace companies. ``We are fully cooperating with

``The House of Representatives will have to decide
whether they want to have an additional committee to
inquire into it,'' McCurry added. ``But we'll cooperate
with any inquiry that gets at the truth.''

McCurry also said that Clinton had no plans to cancel
or rescheduled his planned trip to China next month, as
some congressional Republicans have suggested.

The inquiry, which Gingrich said would be modeled on
the Senate Watergate Committee of 1973 headed by the
late Sen. Sam Ervin, D-N.C., would supersede present
overlapping investigations by as many as four different
House panels.

Democrats have asserted that the tactics of the
chairman of one of those panels, Rep. Dan Burton,
R-Ind., were heavy handed.

To chair the new panel, Gingrich designated Rep. Chris
Cox, R-Calif., chairman of the House GOP Policy
Committee and a former deputy counsel in the Reagan
White House.

Cox, in an interview, said his primary focus would be
national security -- and might require that many of the
sessions be conducted behind closed doors because of
classified material.

``The overriding reason for a select committee is that
the national security issues are of such grave
importance, getting to these things as quickly as
possible requires the ability to cut across the
jurisdiction of several standing committees,'' Cox

He pledged to lead an impartial investigation.

In a related move, the House, on a 402-0 vote Tuesday
night, went on record as favoring immunity from
prosecution for four witnesses who are associates of
Johnny Chung, the California businessman and Democratic
Party fund-raiser who is at the center of
investigations into fund-raising abuses by the 1996
Clinton-Gore campaign.

The stepped up inquiry followed revelations that Chung
told Justice Department investigators he received
$300,000 from a Chinese Army officer and aerospace
official, passed $110,000 to the party and kept the
rest for himself. The Chinese government denied Chung's
allegation Tuesday.

The Democrats returned Chung's $366,000 in total
contributions amid questions over where the money

 Copyright 1998 The Associated Press

(Wed May 20 1998 16:28 - ID#14431)
Prometheus--your 16:12

What a great post, Prometheus. Thank you. I'm keeping it handy.


(Wed May 20 1998 16:28 - ID#287358)
Please post the verses. Speaking on my behalf only, I am interested
in reading all your thoughts, all your words. I am not interested in the
religious aspect, but I value you and your contributions here highly. In
that light, I would be happy for you to proceed. I do hope that others
would consider it in a similar way, and we might each gain from what-
ever we are open to. I appreciate your concern for all of us, evident
by today's boards, and those of many, many previous days.

(Wed May 20 1998 16:32 - ID#426220)
Durban Deep (DROOY)

Ray ( DROOY ) Reply to- SWP1 ( Re: DROOY - BIG VOLUME TODAY ) :

STOCKHOLDERS MEETING 27 MAY 1998 to approve various resolutions - among which is:

*** To issue shares for cash to Randgold ( RANGY ) is settlement of a loan account.

Methinks some are accumulating shares in anticipation...

(Wed May 20 1998 16:39 - ID#233199)

What might be the effect on RANGY of said share issue?

(Wed May 20 1998 16:42 - ID#217268)
TPher@04:21 Correction
In light of what happened today to pagers due to satellite trouble, your speculation as to what might happen to satellite transmission in 1999 when the Leonoid Metero Showers hit missed the mark by one year. They are scheduled for 1998. It could potentially be significant, or nothing at all. We'll just have to wait and see.

(Wed May 20 1998 16:45 - ID#252150)
ChasAbar@I'm aware that Rogers & Soros were & are partners. That does not detract
from the fact that Rogers was adamant in his belief as recently as less than 1 yr ago that the Euro would never get off the ground. This leads me to believe that he discounted the importance that the EURO Countries attach to Soros-proofing.

(Wed May 20 1998 16:47 - ID#26793)
Dow/Gold Ratio = 30.66 The 50 day moving average is 29.69

(Wed May 20 1998 16:48 - ID#410198)
Best buy for Y2K protection,$5.00 American golden eagle they come in rolls of 50
these are small denomination 1/10th. of a ounce......current price is $39.00 a piece.....I sell them for $1900 a roll plus shipping,this is not an offer to sell anyone just a heads up...reason I have heard a number of dealers selling them for $44.00........these in my opinon are the best value out they are small ( day to day use ) ...they have a premium which expands with the rising gold price....they can be used in jewelry ( confiscation ) ....they do have semi-numismatic potential because of wide use in jewelry there are less in uncirculated condition all in all they are becoming the most sort after protection against Y2K

(Wed May 20 1998 16:49 - ID#26793)
XAU/Spot Ratio = .271 The 50 day moving average is .272

(Wed May 20 1998 16:49 - ID#347235)
Gagnrad& John D
Gagnrad, It might be a good idea except that with the voting record of the last 8 yrs we could wind up with six like the coward erect instead of one. SCARY thought EH?

John, Skinny may not understand the culture, therefor he should keep that sort of talk to himself until he learns more.

(Wed May 20 1998 16:52 - ID#413195)
Just ribbing LGB about his brilliant investments
We all know that LGB has obscenely multiplied his fortune riding the great Bull Market these last eight years, since he has delighted in telling us about it so many times.

We also know that he works for Loral Corp., as LGB himself has informed us on at least one occasion. Furthermore, Mr. LGB has not been shy in informing us that during this great bull-run, he has been brilliantly -- and quite heavily -- invested in his employer's stock.

Now comes the news that ol' Bernie ( The Traitor ) Schwartz, Loral's CEO, has been in bed with the Red Chinese and Bill ( The Bent One ) Klinton, busily making Hootchy-Kootchy like Charo never dreamed.

Yep, it seems that Loral has been lucratively, abeit treasonously, engaged in the sale of nuclear missile technology to the Communist Chinese government these many years, with the blessing of Billy Bob Klinton, the most despicable leader in the Western World ( scumbag Klinton actually considered scumbag Schwartz for the Sec'y of Defense post in 1992, even though Bernie has zippo military experience. . . Proof of beholden doesn't get any better than that, eh? ) .

Well, Jesus H. Christ, LGB!!! What with the kind of inside info you've apparently been privvy to, most of us downtrodden goldbugs might have come off as gawldanged Wall Street geniuses, too, these last few years!

Anyway, Loral's stock has doubled this year, but is now taking a hit on extremely heavy volume.

Now aren't Dems just totally clueless when it comes to running a company -- an honest company, that is?

Here's a url with a pic ( somebody tell me Bernie doesn't look like a big dock rat ) . There you'll also find the familiar crook's refrain, "I didn't mean no harm:"

Forget the chair; somebody bring out the electric bleachers!

[This is no way meant to be an attack on LGB. He has done absolutely nothing wrong, AFAIK, being only a lowly engineer at Loral. I like the guy. He has a great sense of humor, and brings a lot to Kitco, even if it does irritate the hell out of us goldbugs, sometimes. And I hope ( actually, I'm sure ) he'll see the humor in my post. But . . . Jesus H. Christ, LGB, how many times would you have doubled your money if it hadn't been for the shady dealings of your boss??!!! C'mon, fess up.]

(Wed May 20 1998 16:52 - ID#26793)
Gold/Silver Ratio 57.08

(Wed May 20 1998 16:54 - ID#252150)
Bought some more ABX today. It may get cheaper & if I does I'll be buying all the
way down. It's reasurring to know that they would be profitable @ 200, but are still exposed to any upside.

(Wed May 20 1998 17:00 - ID#412286)
By avoiding the gold announcement they certainly put a halt to the rally and killed silver. IMO Dow had to be up big today to overshadow the awful news on trade. It appears the mkts are almost managed on a daily basis to provide for the right spin to maintain maximum confidence. You cant deflate a bubble slowly. Because of the management this will be the worst bear in history. Whats even better is that the "good news" being factored really isnt true. The employment situation is good if you are in the top 10 % tech bracket but really great if you want to be a waiter. The job mkt presentation is a fraud. Good jobs for the vast majority of people arent there. The bankruptcies indicate the true state of the job mkt ( wages too low ) . When the collapse occurs the press and govt will be exposed for the lies and misinformation perpetrated to make they and their sponsors look good. A first step would be requiring companies to deduct stock option payments as an expense against earnings. This would end the shenanigans re earnings. The Big 6 should be sued from here to eternity when this bubble goes.

(Wed May 20 1998 17:00 - ID#342376)
@ Robnoel
Thanks for the info. I still plan on buying some Mounties, but would be interested in how I can contact you. ( If it doesn't violate Kitco's rules, not sure )

Mike K__A
(Wed May 20 1998 17:02 - ID#153283)
Robnoel_A(best buy)
Post your e-mail address or send any add'l info to me at

Are they pure gold?


(Wed May 20 1998 17:03 - ID#266110)
@Prometheus 15:48 -- Y2K and SAR laws / A potential application...
SO, based upon what you've reflected, if there are those of us out there who are "paranoic" by the standards of judgement made by a federal agent or bank teller - and there is evidence of either large transactions or long-term transactions that remove funds from our accounts - with the suspicion of preparing for Y2K.... then it is plausible that we could be turned in as being in violation of the SAR laws, correct?

I see the potential for such a move because Govt can determine that you have no right or need to take such "overt" actions. In other words, you never have a need to withdraw large amount or make long-term withdrawls because no reasonable person should be fearful of Y2K - Al Gore has it under control.

To make matters worse, if you show a pattern of making withdrawls prior to the Y2K event and if your account balances are depleted to levels that are significantly lower than those prior to the supposed Y2K scare, then you have demonstrated yourself to be a Y2K freak. By the time the Y2K event comes around, the Govt will be floating the perception that there are Y2K freaks and other dissidents who are capitalizing upon the scare to potentially undermine the Govt and disrupt the entire banking system and other markets. It is plausible that any actions to withdraw cash is actually a terrorist activity.

By definition, the Govt already has the total Y2K scare under control and they are already acting in our behalf to head off any potential Y2K problem. SO, there is no need for any of us to remove funds. If only people had the kind of faith that they should have in their Govt, then the unnatural depletion of cash ( based on unfounded fears ) would not be necessary.

Even if there is a Y2K event, the Govt would provide the necessary service ( through FEMA ) and the necessary control ( for the benefit of all ) by allowing only $50/week withdrawls or check writing to pay for food at the grocery store. In the liberal mindset, this is preferrable to the allowance of people to withdraw large sums of money that might cause a panic. Such Govt imposed restraints would limit the strains on banks. All we need to do is place our trust in our Govt. They'll take care of us.

Yeah, they'll take care of us all right.

Maybe the good thing to do is to start making incremental withdrawls beginning now. If you have a few grand of the green stuff, then you should be able to survive for a while until the dust settles. And if you have this backed up by some Ag and Au, then you are better off still -- only some preliminary thoughts.

(Wed May 20 1998 17:04 - ID#210235)
@hey, Donald
Thanks for that post yesterday on derivatives - the loose cannons of the financial markets. I'm keeping in mind your previous lesson on the USD and how it acted like a non-performing derivative in 1930, and the implications are ominous.

(Wed May 20 1998 17:04 - ID#342376)
@ Robnoel
Perhaps it is better for you to e-mail me.

(Wed May 20 1998 17:04 - ID#254269)
Stock options; ROR, I think the latest edition of Forbes magazine has a story on
how options are distorting earnings.

(Wed May 20 1998 17:06 - ID#307271)
@Allen, Jonesy
Certainly it would be beneficial to just list the verses. I,for one, would be most interested. Thanks.

(Wed May 20 1998 17:08 - ID#266110)
@crazytimes 16:23 -- $10,000 purchase of PM coins is reportable
It says so on one of my statements from my broker. Beware!

(Wed May 20 1998 17:11 - ID#57232)
House Blocks Technology Sales to China
NJ: Your 16:05 today is highly significant. That house vote was 417-4, so it must have gone across party lines. BC is in big trouble, the way I see it. As I have said before, in earlier times, this would have been considered treason. I wonder how BC's spinmeisters will respond to the ( nearly ) unanimous house vote.

I have nothing against trade with China. There is much for all to benefit from. But -- please lets not compromise our the security of our entire communications system for the sake of a few communications companies saving several hundred million in satellite launches. We are not just talking about access to encrypted codes, we are also talking about these very same communications companies upgrading the Chinese launch missles so that they would be more reliable. This action precipitated the Indian nuclear weapons tests, as the nuclear balance of power has now shifted. And, those Chinese nuclear weapons aimed at our shore will be alot more reliable. I hope one is aimed at Loral.

(Wed May 20 1998 17:16 - ID#410198)
To all and Bart,this is not in anyway pushing products,just to inform my buddys at Kitco
my web which promotes Kitco and my radio show is

(Wed May 20 1998 17:19 - ID#246224)
Thank you and see you at 21:00 or there abouts
I promise to keep it straight and to the point.

(Wed May 20 1998 17:20 - ID#252391)
Allen and NJ
What hype are you conjuring up now, ALLEN. Seems your perdictions were for a very strong May for silver. Something important aboutthe 22 nd did I remember. The junction of two heavanly bodies that were put silver up up, up. What went wrong?

And HJ, Ted Arnold is going to have to have it right with his perdiction of a short covering rally associated with Buffett or another's loaned silver to show us anything.

Mr Arnold for those that don't remeber was the one twice quoted as saying his well placed sources had told him Buffett has sold his silver. Now, we're to believe his sources are any more correct about a short covering rally.

Allen we're forming the Forecasters' BOOT HILL HALL OF FAME. As soon as Farfel returns he's going to keep it up and post its growing legion. Astrologist and Cyclists will, based on my experience of their perdictions, be promanent among those whose most often wrong perdictions are memoralized there. Keep perdictilng - what's the old adage,, those who successfully perdict the future are those that perdict often.

Yes, it will go up if it doesn't go down. It went down by a buck - some rally.

ATTENTION NEWBIES: Take great caution with the advice of cyclists and astrologists and about anybody else that has perdictions of the course of the markets. THEY DON'T KNOW EITHER.!!!

(Wed May 20 1998 17:22 - ID#342376)
As Eldorado would say "@ the scene"
Newsflash. "The Government has tracked down all participants from the Kitco Gold Discussion Group and is charging them for terrorist activity in promoting Y2K panic" This is not what I had expected for our first Kitco Bash. Seinfeld eat your heart out.....

(Wed May 20 1998 17:23 - ID#153104)
@Stop Selling
American Communications satellites to China. Then the Japanese and Russian and French will not sell the Chinese satellites and that will make us safer.

(Wed May 20 1998 17:25 - ID#266110)
@crazytimes 17:22 -- RE: Govt bust. Does this mean we'll be bunk mates
in Leavenworth?

(Wed May 20 1998 17:27 - ID#373284)
Lock&Load - basically my thoughts on ING boil down to the fact that I do not think
anything has changed what their price should be other than market sentiment. Their copper facility is looking aces and their other properties look excellent to me. Political unrest, yeah, so what, mining companies are a risky proposition from the git-go. ING has a producing copper mine, reserves have gone up, costs have gone down. Gold properties, they look great on paper, but as we know, the price of gold needs to move up.

What do I expect, given a few variables I think this company could be trading at C$10 in the end of 98 early 99.

(Wed May 20 1998 17:28 - ID#254269)
The keynote speaker at the noon luncheon at the Kitco 1st annual reunion to be held
in New York will be Monsieur M Camdessus. As we have not yet been able to agree on a location for the reunion ( surprise, surprise, wer'e Kitcoites, we cannot agree on anything ) the tentative location will be in the big hall of Grand Central Station. RSVP please to tolerant 1.

(Wed May 20 1998 17:29 - ID#373284)
He better be wearing a Kevlar suit of armor.

(Wed May 20 1998 17:32 - ID#266110)
@tolerant1 -- ING.TO S0 if I get your drift, you see them as being undervalued
1. In part due to the current political turmoil.
2. Great potential upside
3. Future Production rates that look good now and improve tremendously if gold goes up.

Your '98/'99 prediction of C$10 is based upon Au at what price and what other contributors? - if any

Thanks for your previous response

(Wed May 20 1998 17:35 - ID#408170)
If any would like an emergency preparedness list that's

truly thought provoking just send an e-mail, ( no subject or

message ) to:

This is, Lisa Thiesse, of The Quickening News, an Auto Responder.

Enjoy every one of ya.


(Wed May 20 1998 17:39 - ID#57232)
Lets make the punishment fit the crime
All: I think the best punishment for those telecommunications companies that compromised our satellite encyrptation system and shifted the nuclear balance of power -- in addition to criminal punishment, is that their profits from the communications satellites should be used to pay for urgent countermeasures research. The loss to our security is incalculable, far in excess of a few hundred million saved in satellite launch costs. The Chinese cannot be blamed for orchestrating the espionage coup of the last 20 years of so -- our people would have done the same under the circumstances. In my opinion, the blame lies almost exclusively on the shoulders of American citizens.

I hope that the remaining honest members of our government are busy at work right now, trying to plug this massive security leak. I commend our congressmen for their prompt action today, and I hope that this is the beginning of a new era of truth and honesty in government.

Strangely enough, the Chinese Communist Government is more outspoken and honest than out own, as they have already admitted to the illegal compaign contributions to the Democratic party, which the Clinton administration has denied.

(Wed May 20 1998 17:42 - ID#390415)
lock&lode, prometheus, etc.
I really think we are a little ahead of our time in our Y2k discussion here. We are now realizing that as big an issue as the computer problem is the public response ( i.e., possible panic ) and the governmental efforts to subdue the crowd. Your SAR post is good.

This could really heat up. The computer gurus are concentrating on the technical problem, the business world is readying itself for the business transaction problem, but the bigger issues may be societal unrest and the response by government.

Have you ever seen what happens at the local supermarket when the weather report says that there is an outside chance of a storm? All the toilet paper and milk disappears instantly - the over-reaction by the masses is almost humorous.

Wait til they hear ( and begin to believe ) that there is an outside chance they won't be able to get money, food, gasoline, or electricity.

(Wed May 20 1998 17:54 - ID#266110)
@JTF 17:39 -- Punishment fit the Crime? You obviously don't have the proper picture
It's time that we flushed your brain of all that Right-winged, extremist hate thought you're spewing forth.

Get it straight - The Republican Presidents: Reagan and Bush put us on this journey. It's their fault and the fault of the Republican conspircacy to get the President. WJC ( in his own words ) says that he was just doing what the American people wanted him to do.

Don't you know that these satellite companies are victims just like Bill Clinton is? They were only trying to get these satellites into orbit at a low cost, and now you're beating on them for trying to save you buck. How ungrateful can you get. I suppose that you're buying gold because you don't trust your government too. What, are you a dissedent or something?

You need to spend some time watching the talking heads that have Lannie Davis ( and the like ) on their show each evening. They have already defined the reality - this whole situation is entrapment by the Right. Bill had NO idea that he was potentially playing into the hands of the Red Chinese. You'd better get it straight or you will be startled in the middle of the night when the black suited SWAT team storms your abode. The kind of stuff that you're spewing is a hate crime and the Klinton Administration is being diverted from its commitment to save our children from the ravages of Tobacco by the likes of you - shame, shame.

(Wed May 20 1998 17:56 - ID#254269)
New and improved $20 bill on the way ;

(Wed May 20 1998 18:01 - ID#266110)
@Nightwriter -- RE: Y2K... I hear you. That's why I'm stocking up now.
To quote other Kitcoites. Even if I have acquired food stuffs and other consumable products, I can always use them - even if it is later. For the shorter term duration, I am more concerned about:
1. Gold
2. Silver
3. Currency ( in my direct control - not a bank's )
4. Stock holdings in mining companies
5. Getting out of Mutual Funds
7. Learning all that I can from the likes of Kitcoites

Radical stuff - Huh?

(Wed May 20 1998 18:04 - ID#57232)
Logging off -- busy day today at work
All: With regard to Y2k, please note the commotion that we had today with the telecommunications satellite that suddenly did not work. Y2K is only part of the problem. Our entire economic system is susceptible to disruption at any time. Take for example the fact that those computer hackers just tesified in Congress that 61% or so of about 250,000 attacks on Government internet sites were successful, and that any NT computer security can be compromised within 24 hours. As I recall, the hackers also said that they could actually modify Commerce department files. In most cases, they said they could only access data, but that is bad enough.

We should not just be spending money on y2k. We should be beefing up the resistance of our entire economic system to disruption -- either accidental or intentional. Lets not protect ourselves from one percieved disaster, only to leave ourselves at risk for another disaster. Surely there must be competent systems analysts out there that can identify weak areas in the fabric of our economic system, so that they can be fixed relatively cheaply before it is too late. Of course, it is relatively easy to rally behind y2k, and even the most jaded bureaucrats understand this.

(Wed May 20 1998 18:11 - ID#342315)
Locke & Lode re JTF
Don't you think you're a little off of full loaf knocking JTF? If you have an appropriate agenda, it would be proper to announce it. No call for such a post.

(Wed May 20 1998 18:14 - ID#210235)
psst, Chas,
it was a joke.

(Wed May 20 1998 18:17 - ID#342315)
Lock&lode re my post
Somehow my brain was out of gear here. Sorry, Chas

(Wed May 20 1998 18:18 - ID#17796)
Would someone invent posting that includes voice tone and inflection, facial expressions and body language...quick.


Bully Beef
(Wed May 20 1998 18:19 - ID#259282)
Heh ! Another on USA Gold.
I wonder if he has advise on HEMMOROIDS! What a powerful tool this internet is. YES?

(Wed May 20 1998 18:23 - ID#266110)
@chas -- I sent your post to the Klinton Kamp.
You can expect a visitation tonight. Who's going to defend the Coward Erect if I don't? Glad to see that you saw the light in your later post.

(Wed May 20 1998 18:24 - ID#153104)
@crazytimes @Lock&Lode
L&L Quote the broker's statement about $10,000 of coin purchase being reportable. Your broker may report to the IRS every time he has a bowel movement.
A cash transaction over $10,000 is reportable by form 8300. In the communist-socialist-fascist Animal Farm spirit of "it is what we decree it is", a cashier's check or certified check is defined as cash. And, of course, all of those are "money" according to the Uniform Commercial Code promulgated by the Commercial Animals, known in the vernacular as Pigs.

Bully Beef
(Wed May 20 1998 18:25 - ID#259282)
Use those smiley things T Young.

I tried to put a bunch here but they wouldn't let me.

(Wed May 20 1998 18:26 - ID#432157)
Chas-Chas are you still there. Update BAN-TSE

One of our members of the GREAT KITCO group is going to Timmins Ontario June 5/98 to check out, first hand the, BAND-ORE- TSE story and will report back ASAP.

Patience Lad

(Wed May 20 1998 18:28 - ID#410198)
Prometheus:are you also posting on Free Republic?if you are we both need to get a life :)

Bully Beef
(Wed May 20 1998 18:31 - ID#259282)
How about that palladium.? How would you like to be on that ride?
Gold is more boring but I'm still breathing.

(Wed May 20 1998 18:31 - ID#153104)
@War Against Disruption
JTF should run for Congress. That War Against Disruption proposal would catch on like wildfire.
When we are all done with it, we can build a monumennt to having shot our WAD. Maybe a giant marble sphere in the reflecting pool between Lincoln and FDR.

(Wed May 20 1998 18:32 - ID#210235)
Nope, never did. Is someone out there with this handle?

(Wed May 20 1998 18:34 - ID#43460)
Y2K musings
Interesting thread. It just keeps going like the little pink bunny rabbit. Here are some musings for those who would prepare for this event of uncertainty.

Three necessities of life:
food ( including potable water ) , shelter, clothing.

Three necessities for obtaining basics and keeping life intact:
tools, weapons, home territory.

Three necessities for village life:
language, family, friendship.

Three necessities for civilised life:
art, music, history.

Now, where on this hierarchy of life does gold come in? We see in America major losses in list D, serous inroads on list C and threats to list B. We can each think of a dozen examples of countries where items from all the lists are lost, all in a few days as in Rwanda, Liberia or Indonesia. IMHO the only thing which prevents the loss of list A is the preservation of the others on the lother lists. How does gold help us preserve them for ourselves and home communities?

(Wed May 20 1998 18:36 - ID#17796)
Bully Beef
I printed of a list of those things but I haven't memorized them yet. As my children on occasion say, not real mart.: ) I'm trying though, real trying at times.


(Wed May 20 1998 18:39 - ID#287358)
I think F* will be in the boot early on. The only guys who can be guilty of
faulty perdictilng are those who perdict. I am not sure of it but I perdict it.

(Wed May 20 1998 18:40 - ID#410198)
Prometheus: yes there is....and he is a right wing gun nut...strange fellow talks about guns, gold
and God.....he also thinks our moral President is a scumbag....chas I'am only kidding : ) .......check out FR just go to forum page I think it's cool

(Wed May 20 1998 18:41 - ID#26793)
Thank you for your comment on the New York lawyer and the EMU information. It seems to me that if things go awry we could have the same legal problems we had with gold clause contracts. Would a prudent person re-write his derivative contracts? Or; are they going to get you anyway so why bother?

(Wed May 20 1998 18:48 - ID#17796)
Speaking of predictions...a great saying is...
Only fools are positive. Are you sure? I'm positive.


(Wed May 20 1998 18:49 - ID#153104)
Whose attention do you want to get and for what ?

@SAR Susupicious Activity Reports. Create them. Generate them. Millions of them a day. All activity should appear suspicious. All activity should be reported. Any person not generating suspicious activity reports on a regular basis is doing something suspicious. Report that, too.

(Wed May 20 1998 18:52 - ID#373284)
I think gold will go up. If it drops from the above price point, lets say down to $275.00 it will simply disappear as people literally inhale it. The price will go up. Y2K is going to be a factor at some point, the Internet will take care of that. If only 3,000,000 people start taking measures, you are talking about a bunch, and that is only in the USA.

The Coward Erect is in all sorts of trouble. You start messing with treason in the US and the people will destroy the media and the politicians, and they know it. They will eventually eat his guts in prime time. He is already a laughing stock, add a tablespoon of treason, Coward Erect Stew.

The stock market is ready to tank, it will, BS can only keep it inflated a little bit longer. A bubble is not a flight to safety. The most debt-ridden country is not a flight to safety. A currency that has only one direction to go, down, is not a flight to safety.

The above is why the metals and metal stocks will go up. My guess on the price of gold...who knows, by year end, $340 - $375 or higher depending on how emotions and other factors weigh.

(Wed May 20 1998 18:58 - ID#412286)
Comment and analogy
The roarin' twenties and the Liein' ninties. Who better to lead than BC. Remember in '29 we had steady growth low inflation alot o debt and 3.2% unemployment ( my guess mostly speak easy jobs. )

(Wed May 20 1998 19:07 - ID#153104)
The contracts under consideration are sometimes tied to obligations which have a term of decades. They can't be rewritten.

The lawyer's solution in a nutshell was "Let A DECREE Go Forth". He is saying "In order to save society the costs of litigation arising from incompetent lawyering, issue a decree to take away rights like those secured in the common-law defenses of impossibility and frustration." This is exactly contrary to government and law existing to secure the rights of individuals.

This is not at all like a gold clause in a bond at dispute in a bankruptcy case. I think legal risk must be added to all the other risks of derivatives. Actually, I think legal risk is an aspect of settlement risk.

(Wed May 20 1998 19:10 - ID#290118)
What about life after Y2K, etc., etc. etc.?
Are there any newsgroups of intelligent rational responsible people out there that discuss how we carry on after the several big events that bring this house of cards crashing down? How will our communities and nation deal with concerns like utilities, schools, food, security, shelter, clothing, monetary system ( GOLD ) , etc. etc. etc.
So is this the only discussion group that meets the above description?

(Wed May 20 1998 19:14 - ID#316193)
While Browsing Today, This is a Site That Bears Sharing
Partial transcript:

In the six years prior to the 1929 Stock Market Crash, the Fed
increased ( or inflated ) the money supply 62%, inducing unwise
investments and market speculation by the public. When everything
was in place, the bankers, who had been financing market
speculation, called in their '24 hr. broker call loans',
precipitating the Crash."

(Wed May 20 1998 19:15 - ID#342315)
robnoel re the stump
That's a hell of a site. It's going to take a while to digest. Thanx. As far as the Klinto Kamp goes, I always wanted a stump to rail on them. I know he;s a good BS artist, but I have had to deal with better, Charlie

(Wed May 20 1998 19:16 - ID#290118)
I keep looking around the net.
I find lots of survivalist, patriot, religious, right-wing conspiracy groups. But I have not yet found what I am looking for.
Prometheus: your definition of friend - yes, very rare. That is why I am still solo - maybe too smart ( or cynical, pessimistic, paranoid, etc. ) for my own good.

(Wed May 20 1998 19:17 - ID#153104)
If they could speak, the porcine clan would object to being lumped in with the Commercial Animals. So, I apologize for doing it. I have not seen a pig in a bank or an attorney's office lately, not since I became legally blind.

(Wed May 20 1998 19:20 - ID#342315)
Lock&lode re Klinton Kamp
I got mixed up and sent reply to robnoel. See that. I welcome a good BS session. Since that's all they have, I may have some real stories later, Charlie

(Wed May 20 1998 19:25 - ID#153104)
@Squirrel @Post Y2K
You worry too much Squirrel. People ain't helpless critters, ya know.

(Wed May 20 1998 19:27 - ID#57232)
I think you shot your wad a bit soon!
Lock & Lode: I fully realize that members of the Republican party ( and Republican Presidents ) are not guiltless wrt to doing things to the detriment of America. I am talking about orders of magnitude in difference. With BC as president, our foes on the world scene do not need to spend money on espionage. All they need to do is send campaign contributions.

As Old Soldier said last night, BC has laid us open like no other president in recent history. I suggest you read Old Soldier's post from last night ( especially about the part regarding why he retired ) , and then reconsider your post to me. Retired Soldiers posts are informative, too.

mozel: I like your 'Campaign against economic weakness'. You have an excellent sense of humor. The way you suggest it, our national debt would double, and all we would have to show for our efforts would be a monument.

I am usually not a cynical person, and I usually give others to much credit for the good sense they may not have. However, my post was somewhat cyncial and 'tongue in cheek' as I know human nature enough to know that really important problems are generally not solved until after a bad event. For example, does that street light get placed on the intersection before or after the fatal accident? Unfortunately it is after someone dies. All we can hope for is that there is a steadily growing awareness of such problems as y2k, and the other ones I mentioned, and that nothing catastrophic occurs in the meanwhile.

The fabric of our type of civilization is getting more and more fragile, however, not less fragile, IMHO. Allen ( USA ) would agree with me 100% on that matter.

(Wed May 20 1998 19:31 - ID#252197)
more lubrication
Oil is going for about 23 barrels per golden eagle.

Maybe we should stock up on some oil too.

(Wed May 20 1998 19:32 - ID#342315)
geoffs re BAN
I had a good conversation with them, competent and objective, but not a geologist. The best I could learn was 2 drill holes in March showed 1 to 1.5 grams/ton of Platinum and Palladium. Rhodium was also there, but I need to talk to geologist. He's supposed to call. These holes were "prospecting" shots to verify surface samples. The windward prop ( 10,000 acres+, 100% owned ) covers mafic and ultramafic formations. The main question I have is whether the formation is a major UM rock unit or a approx horizontal lense. There appears to be an indication of large amounts of mafic and ultramafic structures from surface work. They are stripping now in order to determine drill sites. The Carman prop is not contiguous, but not that far from Windward and has similar geology. This prop is 16.000 acres, also 100% owned. It looks like there is plenty of "potential" for drill sites and good results. Any questions, let me know. When I talk to geologist, I'll reply

(Wed May 20 1998 19:33 - ID#218388)
GEO.TO - Announces 1st Quarter Financials

(Wed May 20 1998 19:33 - ID#153104)
Explain to me how we are going to be safer if the Chinese buy their satellites from the French, Russioans, or Japanese instead of from American companies.

(Wed May 20 1998 19:34 - ID#411149)
Iffin y'll ain't been over to vronsky central and read the latest
you better be doin it, NOW iffin you want to save yourself from
what's to come and iffin you got the what with all DESIRE to own the place you might look to owin a few of them SA shares. Cuze iffin
JEIL issa right about HOMESTEAK you would doo quite well with
shares that pays you money when gold goes UP and the market goes to HELL!
Now for you all that ain't smart you must get rid of the letter "b"
soos you can read this masterpiece-

Tally Ho

(Wed May 20 1998 19:40 - ID#57232)
Correction in last post -- long day at work
'Campaign against economic weakness' should read 'Campaign against economic disruption'

mozel -- thanks for the EURO interpretations. We will need alot more of your help on this matter to unravel the truth about the EURO. It is clear one goal of the EURO is to go after the 'freeloaders' that live in one country, but avoid taxes by putting their money in another. It is also clear to me that the average citizen will be the one that gets controlled, not the international corporations that have a life of their own, and can move their money around at will. Also the really wealthy like the Rothschilds and the Rockefellers will do as they have always done. It is just us mere mortals that will lose some more of our freedom.

(Wed May 20 1998 20:03 - ID#57232)
Where do the Chinese buy their satellites?
mozel: The problem as I understand it is that the satellites that were launched with Chinese missles were our satellites with our enrcrypted access codes, and our encyrptation hardware which was to be for our use only, not the Chinese. Sealed units, supposedly, to discourage reverse engineering. Looks like they got the key chips anyway.

We probably were going to lease them access to our satellites through our own ( secure ) system. Ie, the 42 or so planned Motolorola sponsored Iridium geostationary satellites, etc. I think there are two other satellite projects planned of this magnitude ( billions of dollars ) . I would be very interested to hear from you of any news that indicates that China wanted their own satellites.

If the Chinese do wish to buy satellites from US, why can't we sell them ones that do not have our top secret encryptation hardware and software, which I suspect is very similar ( if not identical ) to the military versions. Surely our telecommunications satellite companies are versatile enough to sell the Chinese satellites to their specifications. However, even then our NSA or Pentagon people should make sure that no military defense type secrets have been compromised.

Like I said before, I am all in favor of trade with China. I just don't like the idea of compromising all of our military secrets so that our defense experts have to work overtime inventing new countermeasures. Kind of hard to put that Indian Hydrogen bomb back in its box.

(Wed May 20 1998 20:04 - ID#393224)
A very good mate of mine is slowly going crazy. Just ask his wife. His aberrant behaviour started some time ago. Every time he had some spare cash, he bought precious metals with it. She put up with this. Was even supportive. Then he started buying water tanks, food, camping supplies, salt, bleach, water purification tablets, candles, kerosene etc. She cocked a stern eye at this mounting pile of supplies, but held her tongue. Then a few weeks ago he really went around the bend. He is not an ostentacious person, this mate of mine. He has not bought himself a piece of jewellery in 30 years, since buying the wedding bands. So he comes home with a $3500 heavy link 22 ct gold necklace. Absolutely stunning, it is. He says he will always wear it and never show it off. Except maybe late at night, amongst friends, when the conversation turns to Y2K, Asian crises, and gold--then he will flash it!! A gold pervert, this mate of mine. His missus put up with this, as she wanted it for herself. No way, says he. Then yesterday came the final straw. My mate bought $5000 worth of 92.5% silver coins. Over 18 kg, 40 pounds worth of tiny silver coins. His wife said to him last night, "You're crazy, you know it!!" "Yup", he says, "like when I sold all our door stops at $7.70+ an ounce. Was I crazy then?" "Well" she says, "you just spent all that on gold shares. I suppose you're making a fortune on those, as well." He replied, "Gold shares are going to go up, someday soon, any day now, maybe." She gave him one of those "All men are bastards" looks, and walked out of the room. My mate is as happy as a bug in a rug. He has enough silver tiddly winks to last him a lifetime!!

(Wed May 20 1998 20:06 - ID#206358)

Big brother,good day!
Some news from here:
1 ) Friday is the deathline for PRESIDENT SHUHARTO step down.
2 ) Mandaline Albright ( u.s govt ) forced to step down "IMMEDIATELY"!
3 ) THURSDAY ( today ) ..Reform cabinet/policy!
4 ) students gather in parliment now!
5 ) Habibi to announce the "RESIGNATION"this afternoon..matbe?!
6 ) CEntral bank still closed
7 ) rupiahs down a bit 1 u.s:11750 !

just briefly..rgds!

(Wed May 20 1998 20:15 - ID#57232)
Nick: I don't think your're crazy at all! Just kidding. But -- it is best for your friend not to be ostentatious. Other people will get the wrong idea.

On a more serious matter, the line between mental health an illness is a fine one, and not easily discerned by his/her loved ones. The best test is what more distant family members say when they visit.

I should know -- I have a 'boss' that brings in the bacon for most of us where we work. He is manic - depressive, and lives right on the edge, burning both ends of the candle. Our money train cannot last much longer, and none of my other bosses seem to be able to control him.

(Wed May 20 1998 20:16 - ID#194311)
not gold but the world is burning out of control
Mexicans urged to leave capital, risk death from forest fire pollution

MEXICO CITY, May 20 ( AFP ) - Smoke pollution from Mexico's worst
forest fires in 70 years threatens the lives of more than one
million Mexicans, while blazes in neighboring Central America are
burning out of control.
"It is possible that nearly one percent of the ( Mexican )
population ( of 97 million ) is in danger of dying" because of the
nearly 10,000 forest fires in the past three months, said Federico
Ortiz, the health ministry's director of international affairs.
A shift in the El Nino ocean current has caused droughts and
fires from Brazil to Mexico, where nearly 300,000 hectares ( 741,000
acres ) have been destroyed. The number of forest fires is more than
double last year's figure.

(Wed May 20 1998 20:17 - ID#218388)
What ISP do you use? Your Internet connection seems remarkably reliable in all the chaos of your country. We do not have many posters from the Far East. Just last month someone pointed this out and then your posts started appearing. It's always good to have other viewpoints.

Mr. Mick
(Wed May 20 1998 20:18 - ID#345321)
Tolerant, just got your Y2K.gif.............
I don't get it. What does "Turn of the Century" mean, besides the obvious :- )

(Wed May 20 1998 20:20 - ID#57232)
Indonesia -- logging off to go home
Jin: Saw your post --- please take care! I would guess that the turmoil will not end until Suharto steps down. I hope he has the sense to do so soon.

This is what our president BC fears the most -- not the wrath of our defense experts -- not the wrath of congress -- but the wrath of the people. He will do anything in his power to prevent a US market collapse while he is still in office.

(Wed May 20 1998 20:21 - ID#227108)
An article in the Jakarta Post that Suharto will step down Thursday. It is coming from "informed sources" that Suharto will turn the Presidency over to VP Habibie on Thursday. There is no mention whether someone else would be chosen to succeeed him.

Yen trading up.


(Wed May 20 1998 20:26 - ID#225273)
Market Comments
To all:

You win some, you lose some, and some get rained out.

Today was to be the day of decision for gold and the gold stocks. But that decision got put off until tomorrow by a market that still gives conflicting signals for the short-term.

June gold fell $1.20 early this morning before rebounding to a high of $301.50 and a close of $299.90. The intraday turnaround was heartening althought the close was sloppy. Still, gold both closed higher after going first moving lower ( always a good sign ) and it closed in the top portion of its daily range, albeit just slightly.

The technical picture has neither cleared up nor broken down. So I'm staying long until a breakdown occurs.

The XAU didn't fare as well. it began the day higher but drifted lower throughout the session, finishing just 3 ticks higher for the day at 81.09. It's holding above its 100-day MA and its uptrend line. So I'm staying with it until we get clear evidence that last week's reversal and Friday breakout was a false signal.

Among the individual stocks, Homestake is one of the few that looks good heading into tomorrow. The great majority of producing gold shares closed near to the bottom of their daily range.

Silver made a nice reversal after hitting a new low for the year at $5.09. It traded above $5.30 intraday before closing at $5.24. To see a reversal from such an oversold condition is very encouraging.. I bought Pan American Silver today at 8.94.

Some follow-through by silver the next two days would be nice. And a positive weekly close ( above $5.56 ) would be a big shot in the arm.

After this, silver needs to get back above its broken uptrend line, then pass its 200-day MA, and then pass its 100-day MA.

With the stochastics so low on both the daily and weekly charts, I think it's a good buy at this level.

We're not out of the woods, yet. But are still holding for the follow-through to come after last week's reversal in gold and the XAU.

Go with the flow.

The Preacher

(Wed May 20 1998 20:28 - ID#57232)
Correction on my 20:03
All: No engineers spotted my error? I think the Iridium satellites do not need to be geostationary when there are as many as the planned number. Each satellite could be programmed to sequentially pick up signals in a relay fashion as it passes overhead. This would save much expense on the orbital launch, but add cost by requiring more satellites. Just a thought. I'm sure there is a communications engineer than can correct me, as I am a physicist who does not know the practical aspects of satellite communication.

Gusto Oro
(Wed May 20 1998 20:33 - ID#377235)
Tolerant1 18:52 (Inhaling of $275 gold.)
When the gold scarcity crisis looms, Clinton will claim he didn't inhale.

(Wed May 20 1998 20:35 - ID#31868)
Gusto Oro Clinton does not inhale.
He suck.

(Wed May 20 1998 20:35 - ID#31868)
Mr. Mick
Click on the gif file and make sure your screen is full size then wait 3 or 4 seconds.

(Wed May 20 1998 20:36 - ID#31868)
Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm, it is missing an "s"-Hmmmmmmmmmm

(Wed May 20 1998 20:37 - ID#408170)
I think most "sane" people have been "insane" for several years now
as they watch destructive events unfold concerning politicks, religion, American
justice system and especially, financial integrity undergoing the Global
equivalent of a Pole Shift.

Most of my "insane" friends have already hunkered down and keep a low

Like your style:

Friend... RB

(Wed May 20 1998 20:39 - ID#20748)
JTF: China exploded a sattelite to get the secret
encryption black box sold to them by Loral Co. with blessings of the White House. McCurry says "White House will cooperate fully with any investigation of a breach of security."

(Wed May 20 1998 20:40 - ID#20748)
The full story is in the Drudge Report.

(Wed May 20 1998 20:41 - ID#206358)
Strong rumours about MR.SHUHARTO STEP DOWN.. 10.00a.m!
yen rebound strongly!!

(Wed May 20 1998 20:42 - ID#31868)
When the American people learn the full extent of the Coward Erects actions
and the circumstances, there will be some severe reactions. And Al Gore is not the squeaky clean fella they are lookin for either.

(Wed May 20 1998 20:44 - ID#57232)
Lock and Lode: Please read this -- I am not alone in my thoughts.
NJ: Thanks. I do not know who this Tony Snow fellow is, but I plan to find out. I think today is a decisive turning point in the Clinton presidency. And -- will he dare go to China after this?

(Wed May 20 1998 20:47 - ID#344239)


(Wed May 20 1998 20:49 - ID#218221)
Some thoughts I posted on a Hecla board.

People are so caught up with the stock market right now, they can't see the forrest for the trees. You don't have 2 countries shooting at each other, there taunting each other with nuclear tests! Not the THREAT of tests, there actually doing it. The Asian situation, the widespread proliferation of derrivatives in that region, and the US banks that are liable, along with the belief that all that
money will continue to pour into the stock market.
Have you ever heard the saying " It's always darkest before the dawn"?It works the other way too. Economically this is as good as it gets. If you think about that statement and realize at the same time,that the Markets are leading indicators, then you have to ask yourself some hard questions.
Remember J. Paul Getty liked to buy when others were rushing to sell, and sell when they were clamoring to buy. With all the instability out there now and the wall of worry that exists about PM stocks, what do you think the smart money is doing? ( wb )

(Wed May 20 1998 20:50 - ID#267344)
JTF - Iridium satelite orbits
will be over the poles. They will fly North to South, South to North. Thus your assumptions are correct.
- c

(Wed May 20 1998 20:52 - ID#57232)
Tony Snow

I'm impressed! He knows about Judah Folkmann and the exciting major anti-cancer advances. At least there are some Americans we can be proud of. He sounds very well read, and a welcome journalist to have on the side of truth and honesty.

(Wed May 20 1998 20:58 - ID#20748)
Mozel. 19:33
Simple. They are buying the best at fire sale prices.

Just try what you can buy for $300,000.00, from Russia, France, or Japan.

(Wed May 20 1998 20:59 - ID#113316)
Love the terminology "newbies" used by jims at 5:20 post! It sort of makes me feel young again.

Agree, however, that there is far too much reliance on charts, astrology, and similar forecasting techniques to try to predict the POG or POS. I have seen various predictions work out from time to time, but no one has been able to consistently forecast the swings, sometimes wild, with any real consistency.

I read Steve Kaplan's newsletter daily and find it the source of more factual information than any other site. However, I do not necessarily follow his conclusions and advice. For example, he was extremely bullish on gold during the entire recent decline, and only became slightly less bullish when gold started to recover ( unless I am mistaken about what the term "bullish" means, i.e., that the price is likely to go up ) .

To me, it is essential to understand what is driving these markets. Then, even a "newbie" can make a rational decision on whether or not to invest and can also think objectively during real trials like the recent decline in silver prices.

Speculators, in my book, are always on their own and shouldn't do the crime if they can't do the time.

The recent decline in silver prices should not have come as any surprise ( although the degree of the decline was a surprise ) . Kaplan indicated on May 15th that commercials were long 10,026 and short 55,532 contracts, but speculators were long 36,486 and short 4,082. This is a bearish situation that is ripe for someone with enough resources to dump a pile of contracts on the market pushing the price down and triggering stop loss protection of the speculators. I doubt if much physical silver changed hands at all in this recent $1 or more drop in the price ( I would love to hear comments on this ) . I have been suspicious of this type of "manipulation" ( as opposed to conspiracy ) in the silver market for some time now, because the big price declines have been sharp and short.

Even with the decline in Asia, the demand for gold and silver far exceeds the new supply from mines. The difference must come from inventory, which in the case of silver is really starting to run out and in the case of gold is held at the CBs.

There is no long term solution for the silver shortfall other than higher prices. An estimated price of $8 to $10 is needed in order to bring new supply on line. Therefore it is my conclusion that silver will need to move to those levels regardless of the wild swings in the interim. One cannot rule out a spike to much higher levels if demand for silver as an INVESTMENT ( as opposed to a speculation ) increases dramatically. When you stop to think that the entire annual demand for silver at current prices is only worth about $4 to $5 billion, it is easy to conclude that even a small shift in investor sentiment could drive silver up to unimaginable levels. For comparison, Microsoft stock alone has lost more than $25 billion in value since its peak price around $100 per share.

Gold, on the other hand, must contend with the supply from CBs. If the CBs are so inclined, enough gold could be supplied to make up the shortfall or, as has happened in the past year, drive the price down. The CBs have provided this supply by direct sales and by leases. The amount provided by direct sales has been more or less stable in recent years, but leases have grown dramatically and supply over twice the gold to the market as sales. With leases costing only 1 to 2% annually, many of the mining companies have bought into the leasing game as a cheap way of borrowing money. This lease game has had the perverse effect of creating too much supply and driving the price down ( sort of like the mining companies shooting themselves in the foot ) . THE FACT THAT THE CBs ARE MORE INCLINED TO LEASE GOLD RATHER THAN SELL IT, IMPLIES THAT THEY REALLY WANT THAT GOLD BACK AT SOME POINT IN TIME. AFTER ALL, IF THEY JUST OUTRIGHT SOLD THE GOLD, THEY COULD INVEST THE PROCEEDS IN 6% TREASURIES RATHER THAN LEASE IT AT 1 TO 2%. HOWEVER, SINCE DEMAND EXCEEDS NEW SUPPLY BY A WIDE MARGIN, THERE IS NO SOURCE OF EXCESS GOLD IN THE FUTURE TO RETURN THE GOLD IF THE CBs EVER DECIDE THEY WANT THE GOLD BACK.

Therefore, whether or not you are postive about investing in gold at this time depends on whether or not you believe the CBs will continue their sale, and more importantly, their lease activities. In this regard it should be noted that other events could affect the economic incentive to lease gold, such as an increase in lease rates above interest rates.

It is my own personal opinion that only a fool would sell an asset at less than the replacement cost. Although I don't have a very high opinion of most CB bankers, even they must see the folly of doing so. Producers, also, are not going to forward sell their gold at a price less than the cost of production. I think these are the reasons the price bottomed at around $280, and I think these are the reasons any prediction of $200 or less for the POG are completely unfounded in reality. Furthermore, if the POG can move up to the equilibrium level of about $320 to $330, this should put a lot of pressure on these lease arrangements, and could make the recall of many leases a self-fulfilling prophecy. Then the spectre of defaults comes into play, and we could have an illiquid market with runaway prices on the upside.


The Hatt
(Wed May 20 1998 21:05 - ID#294232)
D.D. on Claimstaker! ( Codeman,Chas and ??????)
Have just raised $2,500,000. which will easily put Blackdome into production. A few facts on Blackdome are worth noting.
* fully permitted and up to date operational mill in place ( 200 tpd )
* total resource of over 100,000 ounces of gold and 286,000 ounces of
silver with upside potential of 500,000 ounces.
* operating cost of $192.00 per ounce.
* just completed a deal with japan gold company rumored to have a very
healthy treasury. $2,000,000.00 cash for 35% ownership of BD.
* 90-120 day startup time
* less than 10% of the property has been developed.
* Zenda Gold Mine 69,000 ounces gold and 949,000 ounces silver.
* 100% owned by Claimstaker.
* substantially permitted and ready for open pit production.
* Standard Bank has comitted financing via Gold Loan.
* seven months startup time.
* projected operating costs $231.00
Hard to believe that this stock is trading for twenty cents, with only
17,000,000 fully diluted.

(Wed May 20 1998 21:08 - ID#427357)

Why does the press continue to distort the truth?!

It was said tonight: "The report noted that in the same three months,
demand in the United States rose 10% to 88.1 tonnes and in Europe 15% to 52.1 tonnes. But Japanese demand slumped 40% to 24 tonnes."

It is well-known by anyone who has any global contacts the the Japanese have been buying through their LUXEMBOURG accounts. And the rest of bid international money accumulates their gold stash discreetly via Swiss numbered accounts.

If the demand REALLY DROPPED MORE THAN 50%, then why and how, pray tell, does the gold price stand firm about $300/oz. Big money is accumulating, while they circulate false rumors to deceive the
general public. The ought to be a law....

(Wed May 20 1998 21:09 - ID#227238)
JTF: Clinton must visit China. They have a large envelope waiting for him.

(Wed May 20 1998 21:11 - ID#342376)
@ Vronsky
Can you address the question asked to you about Durban Deep offering shares to Rangy to pay a loan and how that would affect the price of Rangy? It sounds good to me but what do I know.

(Wed May 20 1998 21:12 - ID#230376)
@ Preacher and kitkat........

Preacher , please do me a favor and look at SWC's daily chart and opine to me if you have time. It is a very strange pattern looking on the bearish side....thanks.
kitkat : do you suspect what I suspect.......that jin is another ANOTHER?

(Wed May 20 1998 21:19 - ID#230376)
@ APH.........

........We ran 4th. He got boxed in and couldn't make his run. Sounds like the story of gold...We'll get 'em next time !!!!! Thanks for asking.

(Wed May 20 1998 21:20 - ID#376309)
If your the type of person who will commit suiside if silver gets back above $6.00 again and your not long then now is perhaps a good time to buy. Be patient and look to buy at $5.25 or better. Support is between 5.19 and 5.22.

Me I'm not long or short right now and I'm not sure if I will be going long but there are a number of you who are terminally ill ... I mean bullish.

(Wed May 20 1998 21:22 - ID#317193)
Brother oris
Is he talking to himself? Who knows!

Pickles are shipped, will arrive soon, I hope!


(Wed May 20 1998 21:26 - ID#342315)
JTF re yours on Drudge
Clinton learned well fro FDR. The hand over to Russia thru Len Lease was tame in comparison to Clintons machinations. FDR was susceptable to approaches on him. He dumped tons of then "hi tech" stuff on Russia. I guess he was Clinton's role model. Boy what an SOB this guy is. Sold out the country for personal greed.

(Wed May 20 1998 21:28 - ID#254112)
@JTF (Where do the Chinese buy their satellites?)
You asked for some general information about communication satellites. Note: I know nothing about satellites for military use, only telecommunication satellites for business and public telecom services.
Motorola has put their last 5 communication satellites into low orbit about four days ago. Their system is called Iridium. It consists of 66 low orbit satellites which, as you said, communicate with each other.
Low orbit satellites have a relative speed towards the earth. The Iridium satellites circle around from north pole to south pole.
Iridium will offer voice, data, and pager service globally. They offer their telecommunication services from September 1998 on.
The next company to come up with a similar service is Global Star. Also low orbit. ( 56 satellites ) . They go into production in January/February 1999. Global Star has a contract with the leading Chinese Telecommunication company which will market their services in China. They offer also voice, data, and paging like Iridium.
I hope both systems will be Y2K compliant, because the rest of the old telecommunication industry has little chance ( IMHO ) to come over the Y2K hurdle.
Geostationary communication satellites are over the aquator in a distance of 22,300 miles from the earth. This distance keeps them in exactly the same rotation speed with the earth. That's why they stay in the same orbital location all the time. This has the advantage that the earth station antennas can always point to the same spot in orbit. Low orbit satellites permanently move. The advantage of low orbit satellite is that the electro magnetic waves reach them in a tiny fraction of a second, while the geostationary satellites have a delay of about 0.4 seconds, with compression and decompression almost one second. The electromagnetic waves have to travel twice the distance of 22,300 miles to come from one earth station antenna to the other one. This delay is almost negligable for low orbit satellites.

The Chinese are big in the business of launching satellites, because of their rocket technology. They offer this launching service cheaper than western companies. In my own observations, the Ariane lauche service from the French company is the most reliable for geostationary satellites. These satellites cost about $100 million to $150 million.
The launch costs about $70 million ( i.e., between $50 million and $120 million ) . One such bird in geostationary orbit represents a value of about $250 million.
The low orbit satellites are much much cheaper. They are produced in series of dozens, not single hand made and hand engineered like the big birds. And the launche of a low orbit satellite costs only a few millions.

I hope this is of interest for you.

Alberich the Dwarf

(Wed May 20 1998 21:29 - ID#255190)
Post and Run, Passages
A few suggestions: 1 ) If you wish to discuss these passages please let's do that via Email and not on this site ( ) , 2 ) Let's not be inconsiderate to others here by thrashing theological issues here, its just not the place for it, 3 ) I will post these scripture passages only once here. After that let's do Email so as to not clutter up Kitco.

Isaiah 9:18-19
Isaiah 5 ( all )
Proverbs 27:12
Genesis 13:2
Leviticus 13 ( all )
Isaiah 47 ( all )
Isaiah 13 ( all )
Ezekial 9:4
Jeremiah 13 ( all )
Psalms 78:13 ( In response to asking why judgement tarries )
Isaiah 57:13
Proverbs 28:13
Jeremiah 44:20-30
Isaiah 24 ( all )
Job 26:12
Jeremiah 44:26-28 ( more specific citation )
Psalms 73 ( all )
Isaiah 28:18-22
Psalms 27:4-8
Ezekial 22:23-31
Psalms 78:13 ( repeated citation )
Psalms 58 ( all )
Dueteronomy 28:37-42
Psalms 81:11-16

Well I can't count very well since there are 24 here. Typical me. Bring these before God as well as your own souls. He is gracious and merciful beyond measure. He will answer the truly open heart.

(Wed May 20 1998 21:31 - ID#253246)
Preacher PAASF & Tres Cruces


Do you think Pan American Silver's share of the the Tres Cruces gold
deposit is reflected in its stock price.

I watched Bill Fleckenstein on Squawk Box Monday and couldn't
believe that he didn't plug PAASF

(Wed May 20 1998 21:33 - ID#251166)
@ Allen (USA) re. 24 Scripture References
Thanks! God bless you! dj

(Wed May 20 1998 21:36 - ID#153104)
@vronsky @Preparing Your Application for International Welfare Assistance
vronksy I'm sure there is a law.

"It is possible that nearly one percent of the ( Mexican )
population ( of 97 million ) is in danger of dying" because of the
nearly 10,000 forest fires in the past three months, said Federico
Ortiz, the health ministry's director of international affairs.

Mozel says it is possible that nearly one percent of the Mexican population is in danger of dying in knife fights this weekend.

(Wed May 20 1998 21:37 - ID#267344)
Alberich the Dwarf
Have you had an opportunity to investigate the effects of the Leonid Meteor Shower yet?
- c

(Wed May 20 1998 21:38 - ID#217268)
The approach you have chosen is the correct one. Upon further consideration, messages from the heart would probably be inappropriate for this forum. I fully expect your vision to permeate your future communications with this group. Lay it between the lines, brother. We'll get the message nonetheless. Cheers and have a good evening.

(Wed May 20 1998 21:38 - ID#255190)
jims re: "conjuring"
Sir, I have never predicted a market via astrology or any other means other than my own stupid thinking. Said nothing about May silver or atrological alignments. You must have me confused with someone else.

Reread my post and you will see that I make no predictions about market prices. I have put forward something this one time which relates to prayer and certain things received in prayer regarding the general outline of things to come. I mean no offense and certainly will not abuse Kitco with off topic posts.

Just wish you and all here the very best.

(Wed May 20 1998 21:39 - ID#230376)
@ mozel....

I wonder if those Mexicans are going to sue being they are forced to inhale "second hand smoke."

(Wed May 20 1998 21:43 - ID#31868)
They won't sue, as long as there aren't too many seeds.

(Wed May 20 1998 21:43 - ID#254112)
@clone: Not Yet. But I keep my ears open and I..
will report to you once I know for sure.
The probable assessment is that the geostationary satellites are endangered, but the low orbit ones not as much.
I'll let you know!


(Wed May 20 1998 21:45 - ID#153104)
Yeah, I bet all the flights to Mexico have been booked for barratry.

(Wed May 20 1998 21:46 - ID#408170)
clone, Meteor Storms

(Wed May 20 1998 21:47 - ID#227290)
Bufford & Ersel
Sorry guys,
Somehow, the service I use to get pgms quotes and stillwater quotes is out tonight. So I don't have an up-to-date chart of SWC. I'll look at it tomorrow night, Lord willing.

As for the Tres Cruces gold deposit of PAASF, I'm not up to snuff on that one. I'll have to look it up.
I bought PAASF for a leveraged and conservative play on a rise in the silver price. But I should take a look at all of its assets.

The Preacher

(Wed May 20 1998 21:48 - ID#252197)
Re: Mr. Snow
Amazing, truly amazing. "America America ........"

(Wed May 20 1998 21:57 - ID#238422)
Brother Tom, you know sometimes only you can talk
to yourself because only you can understand yourself.
That's natural. We shall overcome some day...

I phoned my good trusted friend Sergei in Moscow today,
and besides many things, asked him about potential
violence and problems in Russia. He said:"We got it
every day, today it's miners, tomorrow somebody else"

He is not worried, just tired of all this mess...but life
goes on.

Don't worry, my brother, if Sergei is not worried, then
we gonna be O.K.

(Wed May 20 1998 21:59 - ID#267300)
Private Investor
Regarding your previous inquiry, my email me with your specific

questions at .

(Wed May 20 1998 22:01 - ID#230376)
@ T1 and Preacher....

T1.. now you know why the "coward erect'' didn't inhale... he chewed the seeds just like his "interns."

Preacher..have you tried

(Wed May 20 1998 22:02 - ID#373403)
Suharto Resigning on TV
Go look!

(Wed May 20 1998 22:06 - ID#434158)
Suharto resigning now: his VP being sworn in as president. Live on CNN.
Effective immediately.

(Wed May 20 1998 22:06 - ID#230376)
O.K....I'm going


(Wed May 20 1998 22:07 - ID#31868)
Now all you have to do is give us the message when the Coward Erect goes.

(Wed May 20 1998 22:07 - ID#238422)
Palladium, palladium, oh my God....
Little something hit palladium today...
Big something will hit it tomorrow...PROBABLY.

Just my wild guess+Russian miners not being paid+Russian
Mafia wants to buy Oldman's house for 1 mil+Uncle Boris
finally found some palladium in a basement of Kremlin...

But platinum should survive, I hope.

(Wed May 20 1998 22:09 - ID#288399)
Habibe now Pres. of Indonesia
Suharto put his best buddy in power. Meet the new boss -- same as the old boss. Will the IMF be happy now?

(Wed May 20 1998 22:17 - ID#347457)
@Shlomo on Indonesia
Shlomo, who cares about IMF. They are just a bunch of incompetent puppets. What's important is "Will it be good for Indonesia as a country and Indonesian population?" Screw IMF!!!

(Wed May 20 1998 22:20 - ID#342315)
Hatt re CLN
Thanx for the details. I had forgot about the Standard Charter Bank deal. Also re BAN, I for got -their stock was $75 and now is 75 cents.

(Wed May 20 1998 22:21 - ID#342376)
Suharto resignation--stability in Indonesia--Markets reacting positively
The flight to safety of the US dollar may be over for now. Bullish for Gold, yes?

(Wed May 20 1998 22:26 - ID#159145)
chas re: claimstaker
Have researched the Blackdome mine and have found an old boy that used to work the mine. He say's that when the mine closed it had the possibility of turning out gold for twenty more years. He said many of the known vanes have never had a drill bit put to them.. He was exited about the future of this play. I have been very reticent about investing and will still try to find out more data. VSE scares the hell out of me.

(Wed May 20 1998 22:28 - ID#317193)
Brother oris
Is that akin to judging a debate between yourself-you get to be three people?

If they are not worried, nor am I.


(Wed May 20 1998 22:30 - ID#369217)
Physical gold scarcity, "Another", 2nd query Exploration Mirandor (MIQ on Montreal Stock Exchange
Today I called NGE to order XF $20 circulated Libs and Saints-my broker could not fill my order. These coins are quoted ( but not delivered ) at prices higher than when spot gold was $100 higher. Thus in agreement with the postings of "Another", there is an unrecognized scarcity of physical gold. The Arabs and slants are pulling physical gold off the market as the US M3 is accelerating at a double digit rate and the Nikkei Dow is hovering only 100 points from its support level of 14,309 ( next support level is 7000! ) . Overnight all our paper profits could implode. Remember the massive "silent" computerized overnight withdrawls at the Illinois Continental Bank several years age. When the general population realizes that they should buy some gold, it will be too late.
After going to the Exploration Mirandor booth at the recent mining exploration conference in Montreal two weeks ago, I learned that Kinross Gold Corporation entered into a joint venture agreement with MIQ to earn 60% interest in the Railroad Property by spending $17 million CDN ( $12 million US ) . MIQ has hit 0.63oz/t gold and 0.3% copper with up to 15% copper in other holes. Drilling restates June 1998. Thus Kinross Gold is spending $0.85 CDN/share MIQ. Why is MIQ listed for only $0.35 CDN on the Montreal Stock Exchange? Is MIQ acquiring other projects in Carlin Trend or Battle Mountain Trend of Nevada?

(Wed May 20 1998 22:34 - ID#238422)
Something like that. You got to have an independent second
( better even and third ) source of info to trust the first
source, I mean yourself. Old rule of engagement, which
a good guy Another slightly violated. Still like his
writting skills and UFO language...makes me think "long
and hard", you know, it feels good....

(Wed May 20 1998 22:34 - ID#57232)
Agreed! During relatively stable times, people buy gold
crazytimes: Gold and silver should now go up -- for a time. That is if Suharto has or will resign. About the right time technically for gold and silver to head back up, too.

I get a kick out of Silverbaron's or SDRer's posts about Malaysia moving to a real gold coin -- think I got that right. Whatever the details, that is bullish for gold -- long term.

I think it is too early for the Clinton Chinagate stuff to affect the markets, but I could be wrong. Personally I don't think the US markets will crash outright for months or more. But I know better than make a claim -- could be there is more room for a US 'flight to safety', and we reach Dow 10,000. Either way -- bull or bear -- short term bullish for gold, as long as another devaluation crisis does not surface.

The Russian crisis should be bullish for gold, but a Mexian/Brazil/Venezuela crisis might not be bullish. There is no rest for the Gold bug Tsunami Surfer.

(Wed May 20 1998 22:35 - ID#190411)
So, you are still trying to bait rhody with "define this, define that."
rhody is too much of a gentle-"person" to engage you in your P.C. twaddle.
For your edification, he/she, was merely referring to the vast influx of Canadian residents, most notably, the swimmers across the St. Lawrence, and the aquatic invaders of Cape Breton, that threaten our very way of life in these United States.------ You are such a rube, not to know this.
pcpcpcpcpcpcpcpcpcpcpc, take it to a teacher's union site, if you please.
Do you have anything civilised to add about gold? Maybe it's contained in the Leonids.
Jeil, noone believes your analysis of HM, so could you give a little bit of your reasons for it going to 1.00
I am not being flippant, for I promise to send you 10 shares of Homestake if your S+P500 charting comes to pass.

(Wed May 20 1998 22:40 - ID#307271)
Allen's list
Thanks for the sharing. These make warm accompaniment to Isaiah 53.
May the Lord richly bless you and your house, oh Jacob.

(Wed May 20 1998 22:41 - ID#317193)
Even more interesting if in January the guy is right! We watch this new gold market together. Yes? Oh, bring on the vodka, I'm ready to be crazy.


(Wed May 20 1998 22:42 - ID#238422)
TYoung, here is the first attempt to create
Kitco slang:

1. "Long and hard" - large crunchy pickle.

Any more ideas?

(Wed May 20 1998 22:43 - ID#206358)


In a conference, three scientists, an American, a German,

and an Indonesian, were talking among themselves and

bragging about the technological advances their respective

countries have achieved in the field of medicine.

Says the American, "In Washington, there was a baby boy

born without arms so we attached artificial arms on him.

And now that he's grown, he has become an Olympic

professional boxer and a gold medalist at that!"

The German replied, "That's nothing to what we have done.

Back in Berlin, there was a baby girl born without legs

so we attached a pair of artificial legs on her. Now she is

a three-time marathon gold medalist in the Olympics!!"

The Indonesian interjects, "Is that all you have, just gold

medalists? In Pare Pare, South Sulawesi, we had a baby boy

born without a HEAD! We attached a COCONUT

and is now the Vice-President of the Indonesia!!!"

(Wed May 20 1998 22:46 - ID#300202)
Am not familiar with goldbug terminology. Everyday I see a new one.
What's a slant? Perhaps a new Asian Gold Coin???

Just a Cape Breton Backwoodsman

(Wed May 20 1998 22:47 - ID#190411)
Y2k, Wer'e ready here.
All this talk about the "hoi-polloi" not being ready- for the lack of food at the millenium, does not apply here.
If you get a look at the fat thighs and gelatinous bellies of the women here, you would have more faith in the adaptability of the species.

(Wed May 20 1998 22:47 - ID#434158)
I didn't know Al Gore had a twin in Indonesia!

(Wed May 20 1998 22:47 - ID#57232)
Iridium et al -- cheap, low orbit satellites!
Alberich: Thanks! I knew someone would know. I gather at even a few million apiece, China is not in the satellite business, just in the satellite launching business. I would also guess that the Iridium etal satellites could probably be launched 10 at at time, if they are so small. So -- the savings by using the Chinese launchers is not so staggering after all, given the later profit potential. Too bad cooler heads did not prevail, and we used our own satellite launching system for security reasons instead.

I have a question for you -- we are talking about the launching of hundreds of low orbit satellites to circle the globe. What is the chance that one of these satellites could crash relatively intact into China, for example, leading to their access to software and hardware encryptation secrets? A computer chip could easily survive a very high g-force landing. Then -- a little reverse engineering could reveal some secrets. Thanks for the info!

(Wed May 20 1998 22:48 - ID#342376)
@ oris and Kitco slang
Remember "Murrstein"? He suggested taking legal action when a posters prediction about price movement in one of the metals didn't come true. Another poster suggested the phrase "You've been Murred" when you are threatened with legal action.

(Wed May 20 1998 22:49 - ID#227290)
Investor & MIQ
I answered the questions on MIQ the other night after you asked them. Did you see it?

The Preacher

(Wed May 20 1998 22:51 - ID#252127)
Miners beat BABITT

Judge rules against his department.

(Wed May 20 1998 22:52 - ID#317193)
Brother oris
2. oil and gold never flow in the same direction-ANOTHER shot of vodka


(Wed May 20 1998 22:54 - ID#190411)
Mike Sheller and Arden
Where have you gone?
I have missed your board meetings at Kitco.

(Wed May 20 1998 22:56 - ID#159145)
all Re:derivitives
Faxed a copy of the Time Bank article to my broker to get an explanation of a derivitive that I could get a handle on. My ex-broker said he could not explain the instrument to a layman. Can someone please provide a defintion that a "Layman" could understand.


(Wed May 20 1998 22:58 - ID#317193)
Brother oris
I hope someone has a good sense of humor. The children beckon. I must take my leave for the evening. Be nice.

I'll check back to see any further slang.


(Wed May 20 1998 23:01 - ID#31868)
Spoke to Sheller a couple of hours ago. He is fine and buried under some tight schedules, he will post when he has time...

(Wed May 20 1998 23:01 - ID#238422)
You are a nice guy, brother Tom.

(Wed May 20 1998 23:03 - ID#190411)
@ Jack
The outfit that represented the hardrock miners- The Mountain States Legal Fund is not the type of lawyers that Mozel and myself, find so abhorrent.
They have done an enormous amount of work to keep the Western States from becoming more of a fiefdom of the central government.

(Wed May 20 1998 23:04 - ID#254201)
There may be one more chance to buy July Silver under 5.10 tomorrow. Take it. I'm long from 5.10.

(Wed May 20 1998 23:05 - ID#206358)

Sorry about the negative news from me.i hope not disturb the forum.Sorry!

(Wed May 20 1998 23:19 - ID#227168)
Sheller I miss you --But changes are new starts
Yes I Understand Why Sheller Left. When you surround yourself with idiots you become one ---Will post occasionally with insanity What does everyone here Think? -So What ---Off to see Godzilla

(Wed May 20 1998 23:23 - ID#31868)
So now the puppet is in place in IMFONESIA (name change along with loans)
and Camdesuss the dog bottom lover can water Albrights bushes next time he is in the states to show his appreciation for such a public display.

Oh, don't ya just love it when a plan comes together.

(Wed May 20 1998 23:24 - ID#348286)
@Y2K - JAPAN Thinks it's a Joke - Moody's !!!
Japan unprepared for Y2K?

Moody's warns that Japanese banks are not taking computer bug seriously

May 20, 1998: 1:34 p.m. ET

NEW YORK ( CNNfn ) - Japanese banks are comparatively unprepared for the possibility of computer problems in the year 2000, financial rating agency Moody's Investors Service warned Wednesday.
"Japanese bank executives do not appear to be taking the potential problems as seriously as the management of other global institutions," Moody's said.
"Unlike other global banks," the service said, "the Japanese say that they do not have any major problems -- and how they achieved that happy state of affairs is something of a mystery. There are a lot of question marks about major Japanese banks' degree of preparation for the year 2000."
According to the service, 49 Japanese banks planned to spend a total of $249 million on year 2000 issues, roughly equivalent to the budget spent by a single major U.S. bank, J.P. Morgan.
By comparison, Chase plans to spend $300 million on the problem, while Citicorp will spend about $600 million.
Moody's said that Japanese bankers tend to say they are not concerned by the so-called "Year 2000 Bug" -- in which computers that use two digits to store dates may crash in 2000 when the computers read "2000" as "1900" or "0000" - because Japanese computers tend to display dates according to the Japanese calendar rather than the Western Gregorian dating system..
However, Japanese computers still use Western-based software and IBM-compatible chips and standards.
Since these computers' internal clocks are still programmed according to the Gregorian calendar, Moody's said, they are still as vulnerable to the year 2000 problem as any other.

(Wed May 20 1998 23:26 - ID#369174)
Allen(USA) & Squirrel
Allen - Thanks for you list of Refs.

Squirrel - You're in my neck-o'-the-woods. Any chance you live in a city that very nearly became a state capitol? ( just a guess )

(Wed May 20 1998 23:29 - ID#340459)
Stocks substantially Up almost everywhere in Asia, Good for Gold as they are BUYERS..
Good Nite and Best of Luck for the future

(Wed May 20 1998 23:30 - ID#227168)
Let the happy people swim--for a time
Jin Sorry for the earth in people ---but you can let that Government of Indonesia suck the winds of change and fall into mud of crime and collapse----under with the slime of Australia -Good night workers of Droopy Dew Dough

(Wed May 20 1998 23:30 - ID#369174)
Canada & Taco Bell
Q. for all Canadians. My family and I dined on Taco Bell take-out tonight, and the Godzilla promo rules stated that Canadian citizens must pass a mathematical quiz before being allowed to win the prizes. What kinda crazy rule is this?

BTW, I want to win the $Million so I can Buy More Gold!!!

(Wed May 20 1998 23:32 - ID#402183)
Are you still logged on? I have some thoughts on Ex. Mirandor and the Railroad property which may interest you.

(Wed May 20 1998 23:32 - ID#348286)
@Suharto and family worth $ 40 Billion
Watch the cockroaches flee the country once the lights are turned on.
He makes Marcos look like a beggar...

(Wed May 20 1998 23:35 - ID#348286)
Deliver him to the people of Indonesia. They can be the judge.

(Wed May 20 1998 23:38 - ID#348286)
Hello JIN
Your not disturbing anyone here. Keep the first hand reports coming.Take care....

(Wed May 20 1998 23:41 - ID#190411)
Buckler and derivatives
A short time ago, the Privateer had an issue devoted to the derivatives problem that was mentioned earlier.
What really frosts me has to do with the article that gained so much notoriety today.-It's from TIME MAGAZINE.
Think about that for a rather short moment.
Time ragazine could have mentioned this, and explained it way back when Orange county, California went bust.
Perhaps they did, but, it is hardly an isolated example.
Some of the township governments in my locale lost more than their entire treasury on Mexican Peso derivatives.
S.O.P. is to play dumb.
This is nothing new, except for the dolts of the popular press. It seems wonderful and strange to them because it is so volatile now.
Why didn't they write of this before it became a "crisis".
This is the absolute premier reason why I dumped all of my retirement money into goldstocks.
Don't forget that the most recent, or at least the last Nobel prize for economics went to the mathematical modelers of derivatives.
Will the paper gold opposites pay off? -Simply another derivative.

Perhaps those that would like to have a simple explanation of the derivatives potentialities could contact the Privateer, or Mr. Buckler.

(Wed May 20 1998 23:53 - ID#347235)
Thank you for the kind words, I do try waiting until I have something meaningful to say UNLESS I am just jerking Leaky Gum Boots chain.

I forgot to compare SecStates yesterday when I was discussing presidents.

My opinion of Sec States in My lifetime from Best to Worst.
1. Dean Achison
2, Cordell Hull

(Wed May 20 1998 23:53 - ID#227168)
Why waste your time in a corrupt mickey mouse new order ?
When I was Young I became Old ---When I was Old I became Young And now you see the truth Competitive Poverty for the masses --Such Changes Old Ideas Old Thoughts New Waves But the same corrosive brainwashing bullishit Good night Microsoft meet you Germany F-U-C-K the U.S.A Gone to that next Y2 Oblivion.

(Wed May 20 1998 23:53 - ID#377196)
Satellite outage... many computer systems, including DTN, TC2000,
and others, available on the net, are entirely useless due to Galaxy 4 problems. This is a good example of Y2K fall out in advance.

(Wed May 20 1998 23:54 - ID#287223)
robnoel: would you share your e-mail address?.. ALLEN ( USA ) atta boy Allen.

(Wed May 20 1998 23:56 - ID#373284)
Savage - go here, scroll down for robnoel