Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

Kitco Inc. does not exercise any editorial control over the content of this discussion group and therefore does not necessarily endorse any statements that are made or assert the truthfulness or reliability of the information provided.

(Fri May 22 1998 00:00 - ID#307271)
Excellent conclusion. Sounds like you might be familiar with Watchman Nee who wrote the book 'Spiritual Authority'... originally in Chinese.

This is a must-read for all who would seek to flow in the Father's authority line. Understanding of the importance of authority and the application of authority is essential to peace on earth. Thanks.

(Fri May 22 1998 00:00 - ID#284255)
Satellite Glitch Cuts Off Data Flow
Shipping safety systems at Year 2000 risk
Investors must keep 2000 bug in mind
''Some of the risks could be life-threatening to a corporation, and the shareholder has a right to know that as soon as possible and in as much detail as possible,''
Testing, Testing 1, 2, 3
In March and April 1999, the critical "Tier One" test will occur. Over four weekends, the securities industry's information infrastructure will be tested in its entirety. Stocks, bonds, options, mutual funds, commodities, mortgage backed securities, brokerage houses, stock exchanges, dealers, computers, networks, telecommunications, everything will be exercised with full up transaction volumes. At last count, 84% of the industry was on track to participate.
Is Mainstream Wall Street Beginning to Understand Y2K?
BIS sets up council to tackle millennium bug

Steve in TO__A
(Fri May 22 1998 00:03 - ID#287337)
Puerto Rico
Puerto Rico is a dependent territory of the US ( like Guam. ) There has actually been a movement to vote for statehood, sanctioned by mainlanders who, surprisingly, would like to see the costs to the federal gov't reduced.

Puerto Rico won't become independent very soon. It is very dependent on federal social spending ( welfare. ) In terms of legal status, you are de facto on US territory when you are in Puerto Rico- and yes, the IRS does have full jurisdiction there, even though it doesn't manage to collect very much from the Puerto Ricans.

How's this for an interesting factoid? While the IRS has never been properly vested with authority to collect taxes from many people in the US, they have been in P. Rico. All residents of Guam & Puerto Rico, as all residents of Wash. D.C. and federal employees fall under enabling legislation that requires them to remit to the IRS.

- Steve

(Fri May 22 1998 00:08 - ID#153102)
@hologram @zeke
The disappearance of that hologram says something about the state of affairs in Europe these days. One wonders whether or not it was officially disappeared for some reason. Such as not being accountable for the amount of currency in circulation at some time in the future.

@zeke While the topic is up, at common-law there was no divorce. Marriage licenses were introduced to allow people to do something unlawful legally. Believe it or not all licenses issued by any government under American law are likewise for the purpose of allowing the licensee to do some unlawful act or activity legally.

John B__A
(Fri May 22 1998 00:10 - ID#77133)
Gold Stocks Doing Well in Australia
Australian Associated Press, Thursday, May 21, 1998 at 23:30
. . . major gold miner Normandy was four stronger at $1.54 and copper
. . . Bullion in Sydney rose $US0.90 in Sydney to $US300.60 an ounce at 1237 AEST.
. . . Topping turnover was gold explorer Euraust Minerals, with only two sales all day - both in the first 15 minutes of trade - totalling 8.91 million shares. Euraust edged up 0.1 of a cent to 0.4 cents.

Steve in TO__A
(Fri May 22 1998 00:10 - ID#287337)
All you folks calling a stock market top?
Did anyone else notice that Mr. Ford's "Market Crash Index" has been going down lately? Was at 0 2 days ago, today went down to -2! A value of -10 indicates that a severe ( 20% or more ) correction will occur.

- Steve

(Fri May 22 1998 00:12 - ID#267344)
For those who couldn't read the articles I posted yesterday, 20:52...
These articles involving children were all published yesterday by the Associated Press:
SPRINGFIELD, Ore. ( AP ) -- In a rampage that has become frighteningly familiar, a student suspended for having a gun allegedly returned Thursday and opened fire on a crowded school cafeteria, killing a classmate and critically wounding several others.
CLEARFIELD, Pa. ( AP ) -- A 15-year-old girl was strung up in a tree and a friend clubbed her to death with a rock for threatening to reveal plans by a group of teens to run away to Florida, police said.
ONALASKA, Wash. ( AP ) -- A 15-year-old boy ordered his girlfriend off a school bus at gunpoint Thursday, then took her to his home and fatally shot himself in the head as her father tried to break down the door.
JERSEY VILLAGE, Texas ( AP ) -- A 15-year-old girl was shot in the leg Thursday afternoon in a suburban Houston high school classroom. Authorities say a 17-year-old student suspected of bringing the gun to school was taken into custody.
NEW ORLEANS ( AP ) -- A 1 1/2-year-old boy was found dead in a trash bin Thursday, and police said his stepfather -- arrested the day before in a Chicago suburb -- confessed to killing the child, the child's mother and two other women.
Personally, I'm flabergasted.
- c

(Fri May 22 1998 00:12 - ID#267344)
For those who couldn't read the articles I posted yesterday, 20:52...
These articles involving children were all published yesterday by the Associated Press:
SPRINGFIELD, Ore. ( AP ) -- In a rampage that has become frighteningly familiar, a student suspended for having a gun allegedly returned Thursday and opened fire on a crowded school cafeteria, killing a classmate and critically wounding several others.
CLEARFIELD, Pa. ( AP ) -- A 15-year-old girl was strung up in a tree and a friend clubbed her to death with a rock for threatening to reveal plans by a group of teens to run away to Florida, police said.
ONALASKA, Wash. ( AP ) -- A 15-year-old boy ordered his girlfriend off a school bus at gunpoint Thursday, then took her to his home and fatally shot himself in the head as her father tried to break down the door.
JERSEY VILLAGE, Texas ( AP ) -- A 15-year-old girl was shot in the leg Thursday afternoon in a suburban Houston high school classroom. Authorities say a 17-year-old student suspected of bringing the gun to school was taken into custody.
NEW ORLEANS ( AP ) -- A 1 1/2-year-old boy was found dead in a trash bin Thursday, and police said his stepfather -- arrested the day before in a Chicago suburb -- confessed to killing the child, the child's mother and two other women.
Personally, I'm flabergasted.
- c

(Fri May 22 1998 00:13 - ID#225273)
Market Comments
To all:

Tonight was Sons of Confederate Veterans night. I'm quite late in getting to this chore.

The big story in the markets today was the demise of the U.S. dollar index. It fell sharply. Earlier in the week it moved above its 100-day MA; today it fell not only below that level, but down to its 200-day MA as well. It was simply smashing. I don't think the 200-day will hold ultimately; there's too much power behind the current downdraft.
I look for another leg down in the dollar index and this should certainly be good for gold although a delayed reaction is not unexpected.

The weekly chart on gold is looking much better tonight. I have viewed last week as a reversal week. Now, with gold down only $.30 for the week, this week is looking more like a consolidation week; and this should lead to a breakout either next week or the one after that.
Gold is above its 100-day MA again. The close was 300.95 and the 200-day MA sits at 305.13. The stochastics are beginning to turn. They are not pointing upward yet, but at least they are not falling straight downward anymore.

I liked the late strength in the XAU this afternoon. The XAU moved above its high of Wednesday. And then showed a little strength in getting off the mat and finishing up .81 points.
The stochastics on the daily chart turned positive today. They are very oversold and the XAU is ripe for a rally. We need to get the stochastics on the weekly chart turned upward, and then we'll see a run toward the 110 mark.

Silver saw a little follow-through today from yesterday's reversal. It is still down 30 cents for the week. But we know that silver can make up ground in a hurry.
We got a reversal day yesterday with a new low being set for the decline followed by a positive daily close. A positive weekly close above $5.59 would be very nice technically.

The table is now set for the metals. They need a breakout that sticks, as opposed to the breakout that fizzled last Friday. It's been a long and tough week. Tomorrow will hopefully get us out in better shape than we came in.

Happy trading,

The Preacher

(Fri May 22 1998 00:15 - ID#307271)
An interesting point. Sort of like: Legalism Breeds Contempt. Since in the case where no license is required, no law can be broken. Operation then is by the spirit of the law rather than the letter of the law.

(Fri May 22 1998 00:15 - ID#153102)
For the benefit of bystanders I feel I must say in my opinion your Puerto Rico post oversimplified matters to the point of giving false information.

(Fri May 22 1998 00:21 - ID#342376)
@ Stolen Hologram
Or perhaps a CIA plot to undermine the confidence in the EURO? When I first thought of that, I laughed, but then thought of all those conterfeit dollars floating around the world that would come home to roost if the EURO is sucessful. Who knows?

(Fri May 22 1998 00:35 - ID#153102)
"An interesting point. Sort of like: Legalism Breeds Contempt." Well, when a legislature enacts a statute that allows people to buy license, that is to buy the right to engage in unlawful conduct ( conduct contrary to the higher moral law revealed in Judeo-Christian scripture ) with legal sanction, that is contempt for law. You have to have a license to practice usury, for example.

"Since in the case where no license is required, no law can be broken."

Actually, no license is required now. People do not have to have anyone's permission to agree mututally to enter the status of marriage. Licenses are issued to those who want to buy license to break the law. By having the option of divorce. Where no license is available, the law cannot be violated without penalty.

"Operation then is by the spirit of the law rather than the letter of the law." I'm not sure what you mean.

(Fri May 22 1998 00:43 - ID#288157)
Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, Shame on me...
On Thursday, April 2, 1992
1 Gold ( oz. ) = 45830.3 Japanese Yen
1 Japanese Yen ( JPY ) = 0.00002182 Gold ( oz. )
Median price was 45830.3 / 45914.7 ( bid/ask ) .
Estimated price based on daily US dollar rates.
On Thursday, April 2, 1992
1 US Dollar = 134.380 Japanese Yen
1 Japanese Yen ( JPY ) = 0.007442 US Dollar ( USD )
Median price was 134.380 / 134.450 ( bid/ask ) .
Minimum price was 133.550 / 133.650
Maximum price was 135.000 / 135.100
75% of the prices were above 133.820 / 133.900 and below 134.730 / 134.800
Computed from a sample of 3278 prices on Thursday, April 2, 1992
On Friday, May 22, 1998
1 Gold ( oz. ) = 40671.2 Japanese Yen
1 Japanese Yen ( JPY ) = 0.00002459 Gold ( oz. ) ( XAU )
Median price was 40671.2 / 40753.9 ( bid/ask ) .
Estimated price based on daily US dollar rates.
On Friday, May 22, 1998
1 US Dollar = 135.300 Japanese Yen
1 Japanese Yen ( JPY ) = 0.007391 US Dollar ( USD )
Median price was 135.300 / 135.350 ( bid/ask )
Minimum price was 134.740 / 134.790
Maximum price was 135.850 / 135.900
75% of the prices were above 134.950 / 135.030 and below 135.580 / 135.650
Computed from a sample of 2371 prices on Thursday, May 21, 1998
On Thursday, April 2, 1992
1 Gold ( oz. ) = 563.415 German Mark
1 German Mark ( DEM ) = 0.001775 Gold ( oz. ) ( XAU )
Median price was 563.415 / 564.431 ( bid/ask ) .
Estimated price based on daily US dollar rates.
On Thursday, April 2, 1992
1 US Dollar = 1.6520 German Mark
1 German Mark ( DEM ) = 0.6053 US Dollar ( USD )
On Friday, May 22, 1998
1 Gold ( oz. ) = 528.996 German Mark
1 German Mark ( DEM ) = 0.001890 Gold ( oz. ) ( XAU )
Median price was 528.996 / 530.087 ( bid/ask ) .
Estimated price based on daily US dollar rates.
On Friday, May 22, 1998
1 US Dollar = 1.7598 German Mark
1 German Mark ( DEM ) = 0.5682 US Dollar ( USD )
Median price was 1.7598 / 1.7605 ( bid/ask ) .
Minimum price was 1.7533 / 1.7538
Maximum price was 1.7703 / 1.7708
75% of the prices were above 1.7564 / 1.7570 and below 1.7670 / 1.7678
Computed from a sample of 2712 prices on Thursday, May 21, 1998
On Thursday, April 2, 1992
1 Gold ( oz. ) = 512.316 Swiss Franc
1 Swiss Franc ( CHF ) = 0.001952 Gold ( oz. ) ( XAU )
Median price was 512.316 / 513.343 ( bid/ask ) .
Minimum price was 510.689 / 511.465
Maximum price was 518.338 / 520.121
75% of the prices were above 511.479 / 512.503 and below 517.446 / 518.479
Computed from a sample of 1397 prices on Thursday, April 2, 1992
Exchange rates for USD, April 2, 1992:
On Thursday, April 2, 1992
1 US Dollar = 1.5093 Swiss Franc
1 Swiss Franc ( CHF ) = 0.6626 US Dollar ( USD )
On Friday, May 22, 1998
1 Gold ( oz. ) = 440.680 Swiss Franc
1 Swiss Franc ( CHF ) = 0.002269 Gold ( oz. ) ( XAU )
Median price was 440.680 / 441.721 ( bid/ask ) .
Minimum price was 438.584 / 439.615
Maximum price was 443.038 / 444.139
75% of the prices were above 440.135 / 441.163 and below 441.454 / 442.459
Computed from a sample of 1124 prices on Thursday, May 21, 1998
On Friday, May 22, 1998
1 US Dollar = 1.4703 Swiss Franc
1 Swiss Franc ( CHF ) = 0.6801 US Dollar ( USD )
Median price was 1.4703 / 1.4714 ( bid/ask ) .
Minimum price was 1.4600 / 1.4605
Maximum price was 1.4766 / 1.4780
75% of the prices were above 1.4644 / 1.4654 and below 1.4746 / 1.4757
Computed from a sample of 2294 prices on Thursday, May 21, 1998
On Thursday, April 2, 1992
1 Gold ( oz. ) = 341.050 US Dollar
1 US Dollar ( USD ) = 0.002932 Gold ( oz. ) ( XAU )
Median price was 341.050 / 341.500 ( bid/ask ) .
Minimum price was 339.000 / 339.500
Maximum price was 342.900 / 343.950
75% of the prices were above 340.200 / 340.700 and below 342.350 / 342.800
Computed from a sample of 794 prices on Thursday, April 2, 1992

On Friday, May 22, 1998
1 Gold ( oz. ) = 300.600 US Dollar
1 US Dollar ( USD ) = 0.003327 Gold ( oz. ) ( XAU )
Median price was 300.600 / 301.100 ( bid/ask ) .
Minimum price was 299.150 / 299.650
Maximum price was 301.500 / 302.000
75% of the prices were above 300.050 / 300.525 and below 300.900 / 301.400
Computed from a sample of 824 prices on Thursday, May 21, 1998

Sorry--it is long. But it reveals secrets...

(Fri May 22 1998 00:49 - ID#333126)
call for rupiah to be pegged to US$ .... or Gold

hmm... and i thought gold had no place as money ...

(Fri May 22 1998 00:57 - ID#339274)
Turning point
FWIW,tomorrow linear cycle will turn up and the seasonal one
next week.Good run for gold coming up,we might hit 340.
Happy trading and have a good night.

(Fri May 22 1998 00:58 - ID#153102)
When you have a licensed marriage, that is a marriage whose status is created by government and not by freely consenting, mutually pledging man and woman under God, guess who decides for the family ?

(Fri May 22 1998 01:01 - ID#16255)
@clone.Why are you flabergasted??
I agree with you that it is a horrible thing but I am not the least
surprised! What you are seeing now is Hillary's "it takes a village"
in action. The screaming liberals have made it a crime to discipline
your children. I think back... every time my old man wacked me, I
deserved it! I am a better person for it. Got guns? Thats what this
is all about in your face on the news!! Headline news is a buzz!
Better take to the water soon!!

Regards O.L.

(Fri May 22 1998 01:03 - ID#286230)
GreenSpan sees effect of Asian crash

(Fri May 22 1998 01:06 - ID#286230)
Take a look intolerant1
IMF holds back the Indo cash

(Fri May 22 1998 01:06 - ID#307271)
The Letter of the Law refers to written rules and regulations which when rigidly applied by a heartless loveless system breed contempt and rebellion. The spirit of the law is the application of the intent in the hearts of participants. Biblically, the Father promised to write his laws on our hearts so that we do them as spiritual beings as opposed to obeying a detailed set of dos and donts like robotoids.

not of the letter but of the Spirit; for the letter kills, but the Spirit gives life. [1Cor2:6] But the natural ( fleshly ) man does not receive the things of the Spirit of God, for they are foolishness to him; nor can he know them, because they are spiritually discerned.[2Cor3:14]

(Fri May 22 1998 01:10 - ID#20137)

Gold 27,000
Silver 9,000
H.G. Copper 8,500

COMEX Copper Warehouse Stocks

Warehouse stocks:

Copper - high-grade cathodes ( in short tons )
point previous received withdrawn net chg total
Total 91,800 0 1,153 -1,153 90,647

FWN: 153610 GMT

COMEX Silver Warehouse Stocks, Part 2

-- ( Quoted in Troy Ounce )
Net. Adjust- Total
Chg. ment Today

0 5,012 36,995,812
-47,299 -5,012 53,610,485
-47,299 0 90,606,297

FWN: 153630 GMT

COMEX Gold Warehouse Stocks

warehouse stocks:
-- GOLD ( Quoted in Troy Ounce )
Prev. Received Net. Adjust- Total
Total Withdrawn Chg. ment Today
636,926 0 0 0 0 636,926
325,015 0 0 0 0 325,015
961,941 0 0 0 0 961,941

(Fri May 22 1998 01:27 - ID#153102)
Hmmm. Well, the jury judges the application of the law as well as the facts. Although a judge will no longer say so, it was said at the Supreme Court in better days.

(Fri May 22 1998 01:30 - ID#255267)
Does anyone have the DROOY web page URL. I lost it. I think it was somethiing like ???? Thanks in advance

(Fri May 22 1998 01:40 - ID#153102)

(Fri May 22 1998 01:44 - ID#253228)
Life is such a transient experience. I feel disappointment that I will not exist long enough to see what will happen in the future beyond my time for existence. I feel a little strange being so interested in the future, since at one time in my life I was fixated on the past, and I felt mostly bad about it ( sad ) ; however, this is no longer the case. I enjoy my day to day life and I am here now. My children and grandchildren, if nothing else, are an immense source of joy. My ventures into the future are more to judge the nature of the path that I will journey, in the hopes that my view will enhance my experience. Sometimes I venture far, far out, even to when the human species will likely meet the same end that has befallen many a previous organization of energy, as recorded in the historical record we call soil.

I feel unlike many of you who post on this forum. I change clothes for the winter. I see some of you wear shorts and polo shirts year round, stubornly refusing to acknowledge that the seasons change. Some seem to judge that just because it is cold, that it cannot get colder. Perhaps you are experiencing the mental confusion that comes from arriving home late at night with the tempatures well below the danger level, only to find that the fire in your wood furnace has become barely noticeable embers. Those of you who have entered such a home may know the mental confusion that comes from the cold. Building a new fire can become a major experience. The struggle between the logical action necessary to build a the fire and the desire to bury one's self under a layer of quilts can freeze the mind to the extent that the temperature has already affected the body.

We are at a confusion point in the gold shares and underlying metals. Anyone can look at the long term downtrend. Since early this year anyone can see the smaller uptrend. Those of you who bought shares at higher levels have built in losses, and do not want to recognize your loss. The current uptrend has encouraged you. Of course, the million dollar question relates to which trend is the prevailing trend, the long downtrend or the shorter uptrend. Will the short uptrend turn into a long uptrend, or is it just a temporary thaw in the developing winter? Anyone with a ruler ( especially a see throught ruler ) can draw the respective lines.

And unfortunately, the emotions that are spawned by our respective vested interests put clouds in front of eyes.

I have been working at my mathematical models for some time now. I want to know the seasons. I want to win at this delightful game we all are playing. I have exposed myself by putting some of my work out for you to see, mostly because I like the persons that I estimate many of you to be.

This is a tense time which I think will be resolved in the very near future. One or the other of the trend lines will be broken and when that is apparent the crowd with the opposing view will rush to the door. Those of you who believe in the uptrend and have purchased shares of the miners who themselves have not hedged are leveraging levarage. For you the results will be even more spectacular or devistating.

My money is on red. I think that the irrational exuberance in the stock market is about to have a shock. Likewise I think the gold shares and underlying metals are to continue deeper into the deep freeze. I cannot present a case in the words that most of you use. Fundamental arguments can be bolstered by whatever set of "facts" you wish to see. My only method is mathematical. The ebb and flow of the seasons really tells you when to wear a coat and when to wear a swim suit. The seasons of the markets are not available to our natural senses. It is only with the benefit of mathematics and a fast computer that the weather report can be developed and my weather report says more cold.

I am again posting the charts I posted a day or two ago.

The older S&P500 charts which have been revised were:

You can see that the projections are fluid and only approximate. None the less, I have found that they work well enough to make money.

P.S. In the years that I have been following Homestake, I have noticed that it has a dendency to have a big day on the day after a three day holliday. I think this is so because people unbalance their bodies with excess consumption on such holidays and easily panic.

(Fri May 22 1998 01:45 - ID#307271)
Thanks for the discourse. Lack of Authority, its proper application and the lack of Godly Authority in our American society has resulted in pandemic lawlessness from top to bottom. My premise has been that reparation must begin in the home with the father at the helm of the family without interference unless he is not providing for the family. There would be no need for alimony, childsupport or welfare. If there comes a family split, the children stay with the father who is responsible for their support in any case. This system would perturbate upward from the grass-roots level into higher leadership. Thanks again and goodnight all.

(Fri May 22 1998 01:48 - ID#284255)

My son, Damian safe and sound and back in OZ

(Fri May 22 1998 02:16 - ID#255267)
@ Thanks Sharefin
I thought that was it but it wouldnt open. It seems to be working now. Thanks.

(Fri May 22 1998 02:22 - ID#239438)
Re Jeil
Thanks for an interesting post, I also feel the transitory nature of our existence, we dance upon the face of the earth for only a short time and most of what we busy ourselves with is folly ( except, of course, making a buck, particularly with PMs ) . I do not have your mathematical ability, but I do question the validity of your arguments, for the simple reason that the powers that be ( Fed, CBs, Funds, hedged producers and so on ) have figured out how to defy gravity, and they have political and global economic agendas motivating both their strategies and their tactics. How can your mathematical models account for these factors? I see the situation in more simplistic terms, we goldbugs must wait for the season to change, for the puppetmasters to get caught up in their own underwear, and a return to a more rational economic system.

(Fri May 22 1998 02:23 - ID#284255)
Email chatter
The conjecture then being that:
1 ) western society is destined to failure as demonstrated by early failure of economy of size experiments
2 ) such failure would be from the bottom up as opposed to top down as the y2k enthisiasts hope
3 ) the survival needs would be different for a top down and bottom up failure.

Which then gets to my point and question. In a top down failure the obvious need is for physical PMs, in denominations small enough to form a basis for barter among the citizens in an otherwise working economy. But in a bottom up failure wouldn't there be a need for anonymous, innocuous and fully legitimized ( as opposed to legitimate ) investments such as gold stocks, membership in gold funds ( such as CEF for instance ) et cetera?

(Fri May 22 1998 02:27 - ID#284255)
Email chatter
Cnbc. Jack Rivkin from Travellers group on talking to Ron Ansana. Ron asked Rivkin about the Gal4 and he said that this is a very big problem. Says it is a precurser to Y2K and if Y2k problem not fixed will cascade. He said that only Yardeni is predicting recession as yet but now it is said that Y2K is bigger problem in Japan. Rivkin said that he will not be going by air or road on that day and at that time Ansana interjected "and taking all your money out of the bank" but this comment was totally ignored and let fly up and away. Fidelity is also teaching their people to deal in paper instead of computers.
ohhh, just walked by tv again and they are talking problems in y2k again now with someone else. Here it comes, they are letting it out.

John Disney__A
(Fri May 22 1998 02:41 - ID#24135)
For My brother Oris.
I wanted to ask you about this little guy that Yeltzin
installed as prime minister. He looks like a high school
teacher or older boy scout. He seems to have had a
charisma bypass operation. And also Lebed. What is your
opinion of him.

(Fri May 22 1998 02:41 - ID#242303)
jeil.. re your charts
I have been through your posted charts and the forecast and actual are so close as to be almost unbelievable. Perhaps you could give us some indication of your methods.

John Disney__A
(Fri May 22 1998 02:55 - ID#24135)
Rumours of my death are ..
somewhat exaggerated..
Jeil ..
I liked your 01:44. A day or so, a
very likeable Kitcoite emailed me and
asked "Why are you so BEARISH?".
It was as if I was SICK and he hoped
I would get well soon.
I believe that gold's price movements
will be unaffected by our Cheers Boos
Slogans RahRah songs or assorted mantras.
The POG will go where the market says.
Our object should be to determine what
the market is saying.

(Fri May 22 1998 02:58 - ID#284255)
Economists say IMF opened Pandora's box in S.Korea
Korean companies are facing a liquidity crisis that is again threatening the health of the banking sector and Seoul's fiscal balance, economists said.

``The IMF's approach is immoral... It presents itself as a helping hand that will rescue Asian countries, but what it's been doing is worsening the crisis,''

``Given the fact that over 60 percent of Korean banks' lending is not being backed by collateral and that chaebols ( conglomerates ) in many cases mutually guarantee financial obligations, a failure of one chaebol could lead to another and to a mushrooming of banks' bad debts,''

``As the IMF knows well, fiscal policy does not help in a situation where central and private banks' credit injection into the real economy is contracting,''

(Fri May 22 1998 03:03 - ID#284255)
Thai financial decrees delay creates uncertainty
The delay would send negative signals to the markets and upset government efforts to regain foreign confidence in Thailand as it rode out its worst economic crisis in decades,

Thailand's lower house of parliament on Thursday failed to ratify the decrees that would empower the government to float a combined 700 billion baht ( $18 billion ) of domestic and foreign bonds to fund costly economic and financial reforms.

``The delay of voting on the decrees has created an uncertain atmosphere and a negative impact on government efforts to regain confidence in the nation,''

``We do not want the economy of the country to be further damaged. If the decrees are passed the people will be burdened with more debt,''

(Fri May 22 1998 03:07 - ID#284255)
Justice Begins Inquiry On China Missile Controversy - from the fiend
Tice commentary
Interestingly, as the Asian crisis deepens and spreads to other markets, it is becoming apparent that global economic growth will suffer. This past week we have seen chaos in Indonesia lead to an additional 30% price collapse in the rupia. Elsewhere, a financial crisis in Russia is growing as interest rates were raised dramatically in an attempt to stem capital flight and a stock market crash. Despite a 5% rally today, the Russian market is down 20% for the past week. Also, the markets in Latin America continue to look quite vulnerable. Largely unmentioned in the media, the prices of many commodities are also collapsing with recent plunges in industrial commodities such as silver, nickel, zinc, and copper. Today, lumber futures lost more than 3% bringing losses for the past month and year to 10% and 20%, respectively. While the stocks have held up well up to this point, this past week, Georgia-Pacific and Weyerhaeuser have declined by 5%. Moreover, while all major indexes gained today, the Morgan Stanley Cyclical index declined marginally increasing its loss for the past week to over 2%. Elsewhere today, Alcoa dropped 1  bring its loss for the past week to 7% as the price of aluminum continues to decline. We see very negative implications for many companies earnings as the prices for basic commodities, manufactured goods and technology hardware continue to fall as the global crisis deepens. While overconfident US investors maintain the illusion of US companies isolation from global turmoil, it is only a matter of time until this belief is shattered.

(Fri May 22 1998 03:10 - ID#284255)
The Secret is Out- from the fiend
Amid the rumble and carnage, the long rule of Indonesian President Suharto
finally came to an end on Thursday. With Indonesia's economy in shambles,
I thought it might be a good idea to look at some of the things that were
said less than three years ago.

The follow excerpts comes from a Forbes article titled "The World's
Best-Kept Secret" published in July of 1995:

 Indonesia today is spawning new wealth at an astounding rate. Long
 known as the Spice Islands, and a Dutch colony until W.W.II, this fabled
 island chain is fast becoming an economic powerhouse. The nation
 stretches more than 3,000 miles east to west, a distance greater than
 from New York to Seattle. Much of the population is crammed onto a
 single island, Java, where 115 million inhabit an area the size of New
 York State.

 Perhaps because it is so remote, perhaps because it was once so poor,
 perhaps because of the romantic notions that long clung to the area,
 this economic miracle has been largely overlooked by much of the outside
 world. Yet its economic growth has consistently ranged from 6% to 7% a
 year since the late 1960s. Forget Joseph Conrad's Indonesia; this is
 Adam Smith's Indonesia.

 Indonesia's growth is actually accelerating: This year the growth
 should be 7.3%, and Credit Lyonnais Securities projects that annual
 growth will move up to 8% from 1996 to 2000. "Indonesia is the
 best-kept secret in the world," says longtime Jakarta resident Eugene
 Galbraith, an American who runs the stock brokerage from PT. HG Asia
 Indonesia.

The U.S. situation is certainly different than Indonesia's, but the lesson
here is how quickly fortunes can change. The boom times that Indonesia
enjoyed during the early 1990s did not last nearly as long as analysts and
investors had hoped and now things have come full circle ( almost ) .

Three years ago, the U.S. mania was just getting underway and no one
at the time would have ever believed that the Dow would be trading
above 9,000. The next three years will likely be equally perplexing to
the downside as the U.S. New Era falls onto the scrap heap of other
previous New Eras...including Indonesia's.

(Fri May 22 1998 03:13 - ID#31876)
May 2l Caption From A M NEWS
"The Gold is on the Plane Your Excellency Dept:" ( Re. Shuharto )

(Fri May 22 1998 03:32 - ID#255151)

It would be interesting to chart the stock markets of Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, and S. Korea over the last 2 years; and compare to a chart of the U.S. stock market. I am wondering how the percentage gains compare.

(Fri May 22 1998 03:35 - ID#31876)
Suharto's Six Children Are Staying...

(Fri May 22 1998 03:56 - ID#358318)
Cunning Euro Stunt
Just suppose for 1 minute-

The "Euro Mint" gets a fancy hologram made and shipped to the printers.
Meanwhile carefully controlled leaks are made so that the counterfeiters
hatch a plot to steal the hologram for their own fake euros. A big
press hoo-ha ensues.

In conditions of utmost secrecy, another hologram is made and shipped
safely to the printers. On the day the Euro is launched, the
counterfeiters realise their mistake! The Euro is saved, and the
counterfeiters are countered!

(Fri May 22 1998 04:00 - ID#255151)
Clinton Administration Approved Super Computer Sale to INDIA?

May be linked to India's nuclear program! This could be explosive!

John Disney__A
(Fri May 22 1998 04:12 - ID#24135)
Currency effects..
For preacher ..
The problem I have with TA of gold now is that all
the indicators are confounded by currency effects that
you spoke. The dollar is for the time being a weak
For example, Gold in dmarks is 530 now vs 539 a week
ago and 555 a month ago.
Gold in dmarks and swiss is below its 30,100,and 200
day ma. In yen it looks fine. But in Rand it is BELOW
its 30 day and above its 200 day.
The weekly slow stocastic does not look nice to me
at all.
Trendline channels in swiss and dmarks are clearly
violated downside. Yen arguable but weekly also
violated. I spent a lot of time in the past bending
trend lines and channel lines to try to acommodate
my preconceived ideas. It did not work for me generally

(Fri May 22 1998 04:12 - ID#255151)
Please Forgive Me...

Re "Cunning EURO Stunt" -- What's the difference between the "EURO hologram caper", and Claudia Schiffer? Warning--Anyone who posts the answer on Kitco, will likely be kicked off!: )

(Fri May 22 1998 04:13 - ID#255267)
@JD & Jeil
That little mangy Rangy was quite the mule today. I see the heprat has been hard at work on Kitco 2. Now he thinks he's Another poster.

Any updates on DROOY's deep vein discovery. And I dont mean the Viagra Mine!

I dont think we'll se a major downturn in POG. Too much attention if mines start closing etc. I think the feds will organize a slow see saw rise through the summer. POG should end up somewhere around 335 by years end. This whole Euro/gold, Dinar/gold, Swiss/jewish gold is too much publicity. Gold will be let out of the cage dollar by dollar. It still has a long leash.

(Fri May 22 1998 04:19 - ID#31876)
Stunning comment..

John Disney__A
(Fri May 22 1998 04:19 - ID#24135)
Sharefin ..

Forbes is almost as good as the


(Fri May 22 1998 04:19 - ID#358318)
Auric: Hmmmmmmmmm....

(Fri May 22 1998 04:31 - ID#413109)
Step back further
Jeil- Yours of today 01:44
Very interesting and I too have checkedout your charts, and wonder
where you get your long range projections from when, IMHO, you work
with short term charts.
HM is also one that I have followed for years, and charted, and studied,
and our tools may be different, and our conclusions as well, but may I
point out a few things.
1 ) If you take a look at a gold bullion chart say back to the early
'60s, or look at the HM chart dating back to that period or further,
your perspective may change.
2 ) When you speak of short term you use dailies, and long term for
you seems to be weeklies, I find that not at all looking at reality.
Take a look at MONTHly charts and lo and behold gold and HM have been
and still are in a long term uptrend.
3 ) Would like you to use your math model testing the monthly chart
going back say30-40 years, and see if that changes anything.
4 ) As to your comments about the seasons and clothing, this too I find
interesting. When I lived in a northern ( very cold ) area, I changed
clothing with the seasons. Now that I live in a moderate clime, I find
the need to change not nearly so drastic. Unless I missed the point and
you used the seasons metaphorically.
5 ) Check out a long term chart on DM, now called Placer Dome PDG, and
the uptrend is even more apparent than the HM chart.

John Disney__A
(Fri May 22 1998 04:54 - ID#24135)
I know Nuzzing more ..
Aztec and Savage ..
Neither about Crown Jewels nor
I DO know that CJ will cost a LOT.

(Fri May 22 1998 05:07 - ID#230376)
@ Auric.........

The answer to your riddle would be the question: What is the difference between a turtle @ Caesar's Palace and a hermit in the hills?

(Fri May 22 1998 05:11 - ID#401460)
Markets Closed for a 4 day Weekend?

Another long World Wide Holiday for Gold.


(Fri May 22 1998 05:21 - ID#401460)

As of: May 22, 1998 @ 5:15 am ET
$300.80 -0.30 unchanged for hours


Gold for hours, yesterdys close?


Nothing ?

This is a friggen waste of time,
Good Night All


(Fri May 22 1998 05:23 - ID#401460)

The Green light is on, but nobody is home.


(Fri May 22 1998 05:37 - ID#341189)
Monetary crisis in Russia - World Bank President

(Fri May 22 1998 05:42 - ID#341189)
List of Japanese bank lending disclosures - Indonesia

(Fri May 22 1998 05:42 - ID#411331)
@all: Kitco gold charts are down. Does this mean that gold will have a good day today? Reify:
It is no wonder that Placer-Dome ( PDG ) has a better looking chart than HM. PDG has a corporate policy of developing only those properties in which the operating cost of production is less than $200 per oz. HM is
a relatively high cost producer, and their graph should reflect that.

(Fri May 22 1998 05:53 - ID#411331)
@ALL: I also have a position in silver stocks. How did silver fare during and after the crash of
1929? According to David Smith, we have yet to enter the hyperinflation/ stagflation period of the ecoomic cycle ( true ) , during which gold and silver should do well. But if we have a crash, might we not skip that stage, and go right to deflation??????

(Fri May 22 1998 05:54 - ID#341189)
Another round of IMF criticism - killing Korean economy

Bully Beef
(Fri May 22 1998 06:34 - ID#259282)
Anything happening out there?

Why no quotes?

(Fri May 22 1998 06:36 - ID#26793)
Japan trapped by liquidity problems; likely to let the yen fall.

Bully Beef
(Fri May 22 1998 06:39 - ID#259282)
Is today Memorial Day in the US?
Is a fishes arse hole watertight? Why is the sky blue? Will gold trade today? Am I thinking outloud?

(Fri May 22 1998 06:40 - ID#26793)
Russia clearly in the grip of monetary crisis; trying to avoid a crash.

(Fri May 22 1998 06:41 - ID#26793)
@Bully Beef
Monday, the 25th is Memorial Day

(Fri May 22 1998 06:44 - ID#253418)
Preparing for a sleepy day and a long weekend
Today's action looks to be a real yawn. Hate it when Kitco's prices aren't working. What we need is a bull market so Bart or Burt can sell more coins and pay more for his help.

Gosh, I just looked at a silver chart, which I hadn't done for awhile, find it's good to look away sometimes - gosh, it was out right scarey. From May 4th it has been a tank. Platinum doesn't look very good either. I had fiqured the top in PD would be Monday of this week when they removed the limits on PD and it was, yet I didn't sell my SWC, thought I'd get higher prices.

Speaking of sick - did you look at the CRB Index - bear market boys and girls - what are we doing talking about gold in a commodity bear market.

And then we have this poster with HM mining charts earlier whose work shows HM going to ONE. And his "work" has tracked the charts almost perfectly ( how does he do that ) and we are right at the point where the final wave down is about to commence - and I just bought more gold shares, today, -AM I CRAZY!!!!

Have a nice weekend - right. We are either about to go into a world deflationary collapse or are already in one.

I'll tell you - I'm kicking myself for not having sold out every damn gold mining and related stock I had early this month when the charts started deteriorating ( fortunanetly, I lightened up a light position at the time - but the market told me then to go short ) ( Is there a posting board for gold and silver bears??? ) I didn't sell and go short becasue I thought the decline would prove to be a fake - bull - the bear is a bear - I'm tightening up my stops, mental though they may be. It's still a long way down from $5.30 to $3 and a very slow climb back up if the owrld's silver demand falls 30% in a world recession - which looks like we are headed straight into with blinders on - what the hell are the markets saying???? Happy days are here again???

Go on and on, all you want with your conspriacies etc. that will be overcome in a flash as soon as , as soon as, as soon as what?...What one thing will make gold go up, nothing, except a weaker dollar and that hasn't happend.

But the fact is: the fact is, gold and silver are in bear markets that have been going on for 18 years and are still in bear markets that might go on for another 18 years. If it ain't going up, man it ain't no bull market - the future markets look sick and a break of a point in HM on expanding volumn, for example, and you could see a casscade to 7, 8 maybe 5, hell ONE. DEFLATION is the word folks - the dollar is the thing.

Monday , excuse me Tuesday, be ready to jump. Last time I got this feeling Silver, for one falling commodity price, was 15% higher. Gold is a commodity, remember and commodities fall in deflations and that's what wer are in ------------why am I here.

(Fri May 22 1998 06:46 - ID#26793)
The Fed is still draining reserves from the banking system

(Fri May 22 1998 06:48 - ID#411331)
@ Donald: Given yesterdays decline in the US$, why would the BOJ do anything? It the US$ is
overvalued by 15-20%, surely the BOJ need only sit back and let gravity act. This is bullish for gold. Absolutely everything is relative.
The question is, relative to what? What is the base measure for value?
Could it be gold??????? YES!

(Fri May 22 1998 06:48 - ID#255151)
G'day Donald

Did you see the story about India using IBM super computer in their nuke program? Is this a big story? Or is it already known.

(Fri May 22 1998 06:50 - ID#26793)
Japanese bank rescues in progress

Bully Beef
(Fri May 22 1998 06:51 - ID#259282)
Japanese tourism has been big in North America for a decade.

My job relies on tourists. People from Japan and HongKong own a lot of real estate in Canada's West. I think also the US Pacific Northwest. Real estate has been driven by that market. ( As well as Californicators heading to the second last frontier in the US. ) What is happening to real estate in Oregon and Washington State? Anybody?

(Fri May 22 1998 06:53 - ID#26793)
It makes you wonder if the official noise over the India bomb is real concern or just fluff.

(Fri May 22 1998 06:59 - ID#26793)
Japanese banks living in the shadow of Bad Loan Mountain.

(Fri May 22 1998 07:01 - ID#340459)
Current POG 301.20, Silver 5.325, Plat 383.00, C$ 68.89/1.4518
I hope that Mining Stocks show some strength today..

(Fri May 22 1998 07:07 - ID#26793)
Mexican peso drops four days in a row.

Bully Beef
(Fri May 22 1998 07:08 - ID#259282)
Would anyone agree that the Dow has stalled?
Or perhaps the Dow has become a Cow? If so where is the money going to go? I suspect it is moving or has already moved. Or has the money figured they aren't going to get 20% returns this year and the money will just sit there doing nothing? HA!!!!!!! If you can answer this question with 51% accuracy then we could all be wealthy. Gold and oil would help my pension fund.

(Fri May 22 1998 07:12 - ID#57232)
Indian supercomputer
Auric,Donald: The Whitehouse knew this, and its implications, but did not care. Now, just how much money did the Indians give to the Democratic party? It wasn't just the supercomputer, though -- apparently the Indians ( and the Chinese? ) got access to some of the nuclear testing software. This is nearly as important as the computer.

It is very clear to me that our current executive department ( BC et all ) is interested only in votes and a quick buck. All of our defense secrets are for sale. Please note in particular the shenanigans of the Commerce department while Ron Brown was still an asset, not a liability. National security or world peace is a distant secondary consideration for this administration.

The only solace in this is that a critical mass of people within inner circles of the government now know what is going on, and they are hopping mad. Clinton's days are numbered. We may not see significant change until Clintons term is over, but this hidden groundswell, coupled with the later clamoring of the general public when the markets wilt ( eventually - perhaps not this year given 'flight to safety' of funds to the US ) will force government leaders to listen to the peoples needs. I am somewhat optimistic about the future -- we must be patient.

(Fri May 22 1998 07:12 - ID#26793)
Comment on Indian silver market

(Fri May 22 1998 07:17 - ID#340155)
@SDRer - re: 00:43 post - CPI URL applied to GOLD - -Interesting post,
more so if you adjust for inflation - - -
using the April 2, 1992 price for Gold $341.050 vs the May 22, 1998
price $300.600 - - -the POG today is $259.14, one hell of a price.

(Fri May 22 1998 07:18 - ID#26793)
Silver demand exceeds supply past 9 years in a row.

(Fri May 22 1998 07:23 - ID#57232)
Bully Beef
I have relatives in Hong Kong. Japanese tourism has plummetted in the last 12 months. Hundreds of restaurants are closing down, realestate is dropping. Relatives who moved back to Hong Kong 12 months ago to take advantage of the boom are in trouble.

This scenario should apply to Hawaii, Vancouver, and Northern California -- anywhere Japanese money has made a difference in the past. If you own real estate in these areas, I would be cautious.

Personally, I am not sure real estate is a good investment these days, but if it is, it will be at American Vacation spots, or idyllic rural locations. The exodus from the suburbs to rural locations is continuing, and it is being driven by the aging US baby boomers who are approaching their peak earning years.

(Fri May 22 1998 07:28 - ID#26793)
I guess I am less upset about India. If all your enemies have the bomb why should you stand by? India has a duty to protect its citizenry. Why should only the big guys have the guns? Either everyone agrees to bury the hatchet or everyone will have hatchets. India does not have a history of aggression like some of the other bomb owners.

(Fri May 22 1998 07:36 - ID#26793)
Delay of issue of EMU coins and currency until 2002 is a serious mistake.

(Fri May 22 1998 07:36 - ID#248180)
EURO vs USD War is Underway - from India's Economic Times

Nine US banks submit white paper to Treasury
Madhvendra P Das
A COMPREHENSIVE white paper on ``interpretation'' of economic sanctions imposed by the US, which has prepared by a group of nine US banks, has been submitted to the US Treasury.
According to banking sources, the white paper was despatched today after final touches. The paper has called for a lenient interpretation of the sanctions in the light of large business interests of US banks in India. The US authorities are expected to deliberate on the paper and issue instructions soon. Till then, US banks will have to tread cautiously.

European banking sources said that while the US banks are busy interpreting their own laws, they are not letting go of any efforts to make inroads into areas dominated by the American banks.

For example, a couple of European banks, especially the Swiss banks, have already approached Indian banks to open dollar denominated lines with them. Considering that most of India's trade ( even with the non-American countries ) is done in US dollar terms, and as the settlement of such transactions are done in the United States, uncertainty of sanctions may upset some such settlements of Indian banks.

However, some of the European banks, especially the Swiss banks which have big reserves of Euro dollars can offer the same services from Europe. According to the European bankers, even if the severe ``asset freeze'' type of sanctions ( as were imposed against Iran ) are brought in, Indian banks will have the Eurodollar route to honour their commitments. The root cause of all the confusion among the US banks, lies in the procedural systems followed in the USA.

(Fri May 22 1998 07:41 - ID#248180)
EURO understands Free Trade - the American Way "it's just business boys"
European banks on a prowl as Japanese & Canadians stay put
Smarinita Shetty & Ramya Parasuram
THE EUROPEAN banks have decided that it will be business as usual for them amidst the hype and hoopla of Canadian and Japanese banks withdrawing and restoring lines of credits.
Officials at Dresdner Bank, Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank said imposition of US sanctions would have no impact on their operations in India or with their Indian counterparts in Germany.

``We have not received any directive from Germany following the testing of the five nuclear devices by India. We guess this means that there will be no change in our lines of business or scale of operations,'' said a top official at a German bank.

The European Banks are biding their time, waiting for the American banks to make a move.

``At present, US banks are themselves unclear about the impact and interpretation of these sanctions. Once the full implications of the sanctions on the American banks is understood, only then will we be able to assess the impact on us,'' said a top official at a German bank.

European bankers said that if the Office of Foreign Assets Control ( OFAC ) prohibited US banks from offering certain facilities, they would step in to the fill the gap.

``If a part of the banking community is unable to provide certain services, then we would be more than happy to offer these facilities provided the risk profile of the clients fits our bill,'' said a senior official at Stanchart.

He added that since Tony Blair's government had not taken any action against India, Stanchart would continue its normal course of operations.

While the British and German banks are clear that they will proceed full steam in India and capitalise on all opportunities that might arise in the near future, the French bankers are far more reticent and have refused to comment on the issue.

Meanwhile, the Canadian and the Japanese banks claim that it is business as usual for them as well despite the uncertainty.

Mr Douglas Stewart, country head, Scotiabank, said that he had not heard of any sanction being imposed by Canada. ``We are in constant touch with our high commissioner who has been recalled to Canada for talks. Until we hear something definite, we will continue business as usual,'' sources said.

Echoing the stand, Mr Ajay Bambawale, deputy country head, Toronto Dominion Bank said: ``We have a reasonable understanding of the country and we will continue to do business here. For us, it is business as usual.''

They said reports that Canadian banks had stopped lines of credit to Indian banks were untrue.

Senior officials at Sumitomo Bank said that Indian operations would continue as usual. ``There will be no change,'' they said.

In fact, the senior official with a Canadian bank expressed surprise over the withdrawal of lines of credit by the Royal Bank of Canada to Bank of India.

Bankers said that till date there has not been any formal withdrawl of support by foreign banks.

(Fri May 22 1998 07:43 - ID#333127)
Real estate in the Boston suburbs is doing very well, nice mix of age groups too. Less expensive in rural with bigger lots as one expects. Friend visiting from Hawaii says his property has dropped in last 2 yrs.
I'll stay with gold potential thank you.

(Fri May 22 1998 07:50 - ID#248180)
IMF now they really Know How to Help STING ~Ouch oh yeh here's the Gold
IMF package prolonging Korean recession
The measures imposed by the International Monetary Fund to revive South Korea's troubled economy are prolonging the recession and pushing the country to the verge of a new crisis, economists in Tokyo warned. Tetsuji Sano, an economist at Nomura Research Institute's Asian Economic Research Group, said that the high interest rates demanded by the IMF were causing a new liquidity crisis in South Korea.

(Fri May 22 1998 07:53 - ID#26793)
Nice catch at 00:49. If a high Japanese official thinks Indonesia should link the rupiah to gold do you think they are thinking the same way about the yen? Just do it!

(Fri May 22 1998 07:54 - ID#317193)
Donald...just don't forget that..
I say thank you every day for your efforts. I just don't post it everyday.


(Fri May 22 1998 07:55 - ID#300202)
General Interest
Sydney, Nova Scotia ( Cape Breton ) -Revenue Canada Union Workers ( approx. 50 )
currently picketing their office protesting their transition towards their new National Tax Collection Agency stating that they ( employees )
believe it is becoming too powerful. It is the intention of the National
Tax Collection Agency, which on the surface tries to appear to be a private agency to become a one stop collection agency to include federal,
municipal, provincial taxes along with others yet to be determined. An
inside source of believed reliability advises that it may also become a bill collection agency, also along with other duties yet to be determined. When one combines this with our soon to be one number system
which was announced publicly last year, I am astonished that there has
been no public outcry. One number system will replace business # along
with S.I.N. #.


(Fri May 22 1998 07:55 - ID#57232)
Russia -- Must be hard to keep the RailRoads operational
All: Lots of unpaid angry miners blockading the RailRoads.

I guess B Yeltsin has no money, so he is scolding them instead.

Crystal Ball
(Fri May 22 1998 07:59 - ID#287367)
@ Tolerant 1
Please check your email. Thanks. Namaste'

(Fri May 22 1998 08:03 - ID#57232)
India -- logging off!
Donald: I agree with you about India. They must be very worried about the marked shift in the balance of nuclear power with China. I hope they use their newfound muscle with restraint, and I also sincerely hope that they are able to convince Pakistan that the recent nuclear testing was aimed at China, not Pakistan. I think I already said that the explosion of a hydrogen bomb could only be a message to China, not Pakistan. Much of Pakistan is within Indian borders. But China may take this to advantage and support Pakistan.

Unfortunately, when one plays nucear 'chicken' there are no winners. Unfortunately the more players we have, the more likely someone does something stupid.

(Fri May 22 1998 08:17 - ID#300202)
National Tax Collection Agency
The ramifications I forsee in this is the ability, in it's new non-governmental capacity, to cross share information/intelligence with other
agencies thus by-passing it's current governmental security arrangements.
In reality though, they will still be directed by the Fed. Gov't-Minister
of Finance.

(Fri May 22 1998 08:22 - ID#26793)
Lots of great posters here, if I start naming names the ones I forget to mention will be upset! Bart makes it all possible; none of us can do it without his support. Kitco has the news that matters; and has it first!

(Fri May 22 1998 08:24 - ID#340459)
US$ up, PM's down - Gold 300.50, Silver 5.295, plat 381.5
Damn the strong US $

(Fri May 22 1998 08:29 - ID#254201)
Jeil - Charts
Jeil, I viewed your charts with interest. Do the projected prices adjust with updated actual prices? How much historical data is in your model?

(Fri May 22 1998 08:35 - ID#215208)
Jeil Perfection
All - You seem to misunderstand Jeil's approach. Every day, he take historical data to-date and does something like a Fourier analysis on it, which basicly means to convert it to a set of sine waves which, when added together, result in the historical data path. His assumption is that the near-term extension of this result will predict the future. His "model" fits historical data very nearly perfectly, because he recomputes it daily to make it do just that. Jeil - correct me if I'm wrong.

(Fri May 22 1998 08:47 - ID#340459)
AG on Asia
WASHINGTON ( CBS.MW ) -- The U.S. economy is just beginning to feel
the effects of the Asian economic crisis, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan
Greenspan told lawmakers Thursday.

So far, the world economy has avoided the worst-case scenario from the
crisis, the chairman said.

"The effects of the Asian crisis on the real economies of the immediately
affected countries, as well as our own economy, are only now just being
felt," Greenspan said in urging the Congress to approve an $18.5 billion
supplemental appropriation to the International Monetary Fund to replenish
the multinational agency's coffers.

"We have so far avoided the type of continuing
downward spiral that some feared," Greenspan said
in testimony before the House Agriculture

To raise or not to raise: Still the question

"There was and is, however, a small but not negligible probability that the
upset in East Asia could have unexpectedly large negative effects on Japan,
Latin America, and eastern and central Europe that, in turn could have
repercussions elsewhere, including the United States."

Greenspan and the other members of the Federal Open Market Committee
declined to raise U.S. short-term interest rates on Tuesday, a decision many
observers say was driven by the expectation that the Asian crisis would
begin to slow the U.S. economy significantly in the spring and early
summer. ( See our Bond Report. )

It is difficult to tell from Greenspan's remarks Thursday whether he still
believes Asia will slow the economy enough to avoid an interest rate hike in
the summer.

Nothing Greenspan said Thursday argues against an Asia-induced
slowdown in the United States, but neither did Greenspan give quite the
same alarms about Asia that he did in his Humphrey-Hawkins testimony in

Echoing Greenspan's call for the IMF funding, Treasury Secretary Robert
Rubin said, "There are difficult times ahead for the Asian countries in crisis
and many challenges to be met, but a number of the countries affected by
the recent crisis have committed themselves to sustained reform and that
has led to real signs of progress."

"The contagion risk that threatened in the early stages of the crisis has so
far largely been contained and economic instability has not spread to other
developing countries," Rubin added.

IMF innocent, Rubin says

Rubin said the IMF should not be blamed for the political and social unrest
that led to the resignation of Indonesian President Suharto. "It is the
economic crisis and political conditions in Indonesia -- and the Indonesian
government's mishandling of the crisis --- that have led to a loss of
confidence in the government by the Indonesian people and the global
financial markets," he said. See related story and StockWatch.

"The IMF reform program was a creative response to the economic crisis,
not a cause," Rubin said. He noted that all IMF programs, including the
Indonesian plan, require the national government to take steps to reduce the
impact of financial restructuring on the poor.

Political reform

Rubin said political reform is needed in Indonesia to
restore economic stability. "Restraint by the
authorities and political dialogue and reform are
necessary to re-establish political and social stability
and create a framework within which essential
IMF-supported economic reforms can be implemented to restore financial
stability," he said.

Rubin refused to judge President Habibie on his first day in office. "My
hope is that President Habibie will commit himself to these reforms," Rubin
told reporters after the hearing.

The Senate approved the $18.5 billion IMF funding on a 86-14 vote. But it
has been stalled in the House over several issues, including the insistence by
some antiabortion Republicans to tie the funding to further restrictions on
international organizations that spend U.S. funds on family planning. Not
helping: demands of members from both the right and left that the IMF's
own internal operations and its lending practices be made more open,
democratic and friendly to workers, consumers and the environment.

The officials tried to explain the IMF in terms farmers could understand.

Deputy Treasury Secretary Larry Summers said the IMF is like a credit
union or farm coop, where members pool their deposits and lend them to
fellow members. Rubin said a fully funded IMF is also a "no-cost insurance
policy" against the small risk that another economic crisis could ignite.

Rubin said the IMF now has about $38 billion in readily available, lendable
funds, about the same amount that it has committed to South Korea,
Indonesia and Thailand. "The funds will not be there to meet another crisis
on the scale of Asia," Summers said.

Agriculture Secretary Dan Glickman said U.S. farm income has been hurt
by about $2 billion because of the Asia crisis. He said agricultural exports
are projected at $56 billion, down $1.3 billion from last year. About 40
percent of U.S. agricultural exports go to Asia, while only about 30 percent
of overall exports are Asia-bound.

(Fri May 22 1998 09:01 - ID#36156)
POG Down This Morning.....
Hey, maybe we'll break the trend and have a late-session rally!

(Fri May 22 1998 09:03 - ID#263379)
Mr. Midas touch.....
Mr. Midas sir, I gather from your remarks, we are all in this crummy gold mining stock pit together. Well, if you consider yourself a bottom fisher, we in the right place! This gold mining stock area is a bute. Now, with the wealth of reasons from the pro's why gold should fly, it continues to just lumber along like a dead log.
but, you can bet on one thing, there is action ahead. The great question for all is what kind of beastly world wide environment are we headed for if it should be one that is extremely favorable for gold to go to those lofty heights as anticipated by many?

It may become true ( speculation ) that we who own gold and/or gold mining stocks may be amoung the very very few in our town or villages with lose change in our pockets.... Buy the way, what does a pocket of pennies buy, and why must we be continually annoyed by having them load and weigh down our pockets. When people see me with my hands in my pockets, they sometimes chuckle at what they think I'm doing with my hands. No, I'm doing that, I'm jingling pennies......

(Fri May 22 1998 09:20 - ID#340459)
@Liberty - We are losing money constantly in PM's - yesterday the poor performance on mining stocks
inspite of firm up moves by bullion makes me think that these market makers knew that gold will go down today.

I suspect that the Big Houses like fidelity, morgan, lehman, kuhn loeb etc..know where money will move, it is a lost battle to second guess these mf's and taking us all to the cleaners, there are millions now with online trading connectivity and it is more and more like a casino where big guys are manipulating currency, commodity, stock and interest rates to fleece the world from wall st.

(Fri May 22 1998 09:20 - ID#7568)

The never ending intrigue in the silver market continues. This time the game revolves around the potential delivery of in the neighborhood of 50 million ounces of silver to WB. Apparently this silver had previously been loaned into the market and now it is coming off lease.

The silver is reportedly coming due the last days of May and the first week of June. In response to this the market is begining to bid up the price of silver for those dates. In addition there has been a some OTC call buying for the end of June period, and beyond.

If the delivered silver is released to the market, then this will be a non-event and sentiment will more than likely turn even more bearish, as the bulls are once again disappointed, and a retest of the lows will be in order.

If the silver is taken off lease, then there will likely be a tightening in the market, increasing the carrying cost for short sellers, and in all probability a force driving the market higher. The good volume of call buying which has preceded this event will enforce any upmove as positive gamma works its magic. With very large fund short positions still in the market, the possibility for a spike move remains.

The action in the overnight session has changed in the last two days. Previously, the Access market for silver has been very thin, and the bear raider ( rumored to be the man from PEI ) could move the overnight futures market sometimes as much as 10 cents on litte more than a million ounces.

This kind of play is designed to uncover stops in the market, which are then used by the bear to cover the short. With the market thin and jittery this has been a very profitable strategy, up until a few nights ago.

The last couple of nights on Access the market has been very well bid. Last night there were on the order of 3-4 million ounces bid within a range from 530 to 525. As a result of these bids sitting in the market, there were on attempts at bear raiding, because the cost would be much too high for any decent effect. Whether or not this is indicative of a new floor price coming into the market remains to be seen, but it is a change in the market.

Finally, a large number of call options are being offered in the over the counter market which expire on Wednesday morning at a strike of 540. It is hard to read the intent of the seller, but it is interesting that it coincides with the dates of the impending delivery to WB.

(Fri May 22 1998 09:26 - ID#340459)
@D.A., Thanks for your insightful analysis on Silver.
Who will win, my friend ??

(Fri May 22 1998 09:27 - ID#340459)
I feel that DOW and everything will be down today

(Fri May 22 1998 09:29 - ID#317193)
Thanks, getting exciting out there.


(Fri May 22 1998 09:29 - ID#212197)
@Donald (@JTF) India's Bomb
I agree with you completely.
All these arguments, like "India has so many poor people and should care for them first" and so on and on, these arguments don't hit.

I think you expressed the right view when you said that either no one should have it, or else everyone will have it.

But what can we expect from the "political correct world" we live in!
The US, the only power which has ever used it killing hundreds of thousands, lead by Clinton, teaches India morality! What a joke!

"It is hard not to write a satire." I forgot the name of the ancient Roman who has said this.

Alberich the Dwarf

(Fri May 22 1998 09:33 - ID#254201)
To my knowledge the access market doesn't take stops on the metals. How can the bears uncover them?

(Fri May 22 1998 09:33 - ID#340459)
Kid's like Kinkel does not need Counselor's they need a f&*king Whip
Parents are leaving the kid's to teachers and psychologists instead of relying on morality and religion. Any path outside of spiritual leads to frustration and loss of meaning.

Go Gold Go
Go Silver Go

(Fri May 22 1998 09:34 - ID#342376)
Golden Eagle International...(MINE on OTC BB)
I took a gamble with this one...alot of hype, posssible one hundred million ounces in a small region in Bolivia? I figured after Bre-X, it would be hard to put a scam together. Anyway, report out today. Go to Yahoo, put in symbol MINE and read the report. Proven Reserves of 6,430,000 ounces, 78,714,000 indicated, and 157,428,000 inferred. I bought a hell of alot of shares around 12 cents. I'll be curious to see what happens today. The stock should do well.

(Fri May 22 1998 09:34 - ID#20137)
"The Fed had been expected to refrain from open market operations on Thursday."
Donald it looks to me like EVERYONE is ignoring what the FED has been doing with these removals of usdollars from the market, BUT I see it as the MAJOR sign of a MAJOR sea change. The USdollar is flowing home to the USG and the USG has run out of places to hide it.

They are issuing securities and bonds at special rates and deals to get this cash out of the market ( thus removing liquidity ) . These actions may be feeding on themselves, because they are NOT making any headway.

My question is what will be the next sign that we will see in this downward spiral ???

To many udollars means INFLATION, if they get caught in a cycle of removing to many usdollars that would mean DEFLATION. The scariest part of all of this is that they seem to have lost control ( probably all the derivative games are making their task impossibly complicated ) . LOSS of control leads to PANIC. AL and Rubin do seem to be more active lately.

The world is awash in USdollars and they are sending them home to the USG, not a good sign for the USdollar, USsecuritities or USbonds.


(Fri May 22 1998 09:38 - ID#28594)
As we view the Japanese yen, we should hold a few facts in mind:

1. The preponderance of paper held was purchased when the yen was
considerably weaker. The Japanese were Treasury Auction Mainstays--the Engine of Liquidity--in the 80s. Selling T-paper now goes directly to their bottom line.

2. Japanese debtors ( Asean Tigers ) are being aided by the weaker yen.

3. Japans POG has IMPROVED ( from 45830.3 on 4/2/98 to 40671.2 on 5/21/98 ) If the plan is indeed a regional currency pegged to GF ( XFO ) then Japanese banks/business are aided by an improved entry point.

4. Banks/corporations, Significant Individuals may purchase gold in strict privacy, using BIS as their agent. Which may explain LBMA/Rothschilds pique.

5. Mentions of pegging to gold ( with reference to Maylasia, e.g. ) seem
significant. The Tigers have openly stated, on several occasions, that they were adjusting their reserve currency holdings away from the USD. We would do well to believe them.

(Fri May 22 1998 09:38 - ID#266110)
@Midas 9:20 --- "Losing" money in AU Stocks
Maybe this is a picayune detail, but the "losses" that you are experiencing are paper losses right now. Just like the "gains" that everybody's making in the Stock Market and in Mutual Funds are only paper gains. Only at the time that you sell the equity that you are holding will you realize a true gain or a true loss. Otherwise, you are fretting over a some black ( or red ) ink on a white background.

While I know it's frustrating to see downturns, one way to look at it is that you have great buying opportunities. And in the case of PM mining stocks, you are getting great values. Load up on more. Then sit back and wait.

You can be like a vendor of soft drinks at the ballpark on a hot summers day. Let the peanut and hot dog concessionaire go in front of you for the 1st hour of the game. Jack up your price by 20% and THEN go around to sell your wares. Because now you've got a clientelle that have developed a hefty thirst and they really want your commodity. For you to be singing the blues during the National Anthem is a way too premature reaction. Have some patience brother, the fans will be plenty thirsty during the 5th inning. And they'll pay the premium.

The same goes for AU. Buy it now as you listen to " OOh say can you see..." and sit back for a bit. The time isn't right just yet. But before you know it... You'll be rollin' in Buffalo Chips the size of Diamonds!!!"

Remember, every "dog" has its day ( right now AU is perceived as a dog ) . So, KEEP THE FAITH !!!

(Fri May 22 1998 09:39 - ID#215208)
PL8N just hit a new low of 377.5

(Fri May 22 1998 09:40 - ID#342315)
DA re Tidbits
It seems to me the call sellers ( 540 strike ) don't believe the price will reach 540. Is this any where near correct? Charlie

(Fri May 22 1998 09:47 - ID#7568)

Between the New York close and the London open, there are very few bullion dealers making markets. The ones in Hong Kong and Australia deal in relatively small size, and will often adjust their bid offer prices to the Access market. If a player leaves a cash stop with his broker, he may find that the cash price has indeed traded down to his stop as a result of the dealers marking down their prices to stay in tune with the Access market. In addition, the overnight desks at the wirehouses will take stop orders which they keep on their own books, and will execute on any set of circumstances that the client wishes, including numbers generated off the Access market.

(Fri May 22 1998 09:49 - ID#20137)
Wow! look at the paper game going on with Palladium now up +92.55 at 9:45. $447.55 for Palladium. Who would have guessed a year ago, that these swings would be going on now. That is a 26% swing in minutes.

It can happen to the other pm's. Is silver or platinum next?? Then gold??? Or ...


(Fri May 22 1998 09:54 - ID#340459)
@Lock and Lode., Will do as advised, Brother..
Patience is slightly difficult on margin though..

(Fri May 22 1998 09:58 - ID#254201)
Thanks for the explanation. I knew there was a way to do it though the cash market but didn't know exactly how it worked.

(Fri May 22 1998 09:58 - ID#7568)
540 calls

Taken at face value, this would certainly be the assessment. Unfortunately in this arena, deception is often employed when games are afoot.

I left out a small but crucial fact, and that is the offerers of the 540 calls have apparently been large buyers of 550 - 575 calls expiring at the end of June. It may be that the offer of the 540 call is to help finance the other purchases, or it may be a deception to pressure the market short term so as to build up larger positions in the further out strikes.

It also may just be as simple as the party is happy to take in 4 cents premium for a call which has only 1.5 trading days to expiration, 12 cents out of the money.

(Fri May 22 1998 10:02 - ID#254269)
Forbes Magazine and Warren Buffett ; this week's Forbes has two very interesting articles;
1. Article about how WB may be getting cautious on the stock market and may have been lightening up his stock positions. Unanswered question in the article is what is he doing with the cash ?
2. Article how silver may be at historic low.

(Fri May 22 1998 10:05 - ID#286230)
Early Explanations
are often incorrect. The previous major gun episode resulted in a lot of posts concerning the liberal influences undermining the raising of children. Then it turned out that one of the kids had his first gun at 6 years, that he was familiar with a variety of his grandfathers guns, ran around in army fatigues and knew how to drive a truck about 2 years before he should have been driving. These, it should have been said before, are NOT the demonstration of liberal ideas.

(Fri May 22 1998 10:12 - ID#254269)
"China, Missiles and Clinton" is the title of today's WSJ editorial. It is a full two column
editorial, which is a little unusual.

(Fri May 22 1998 10:14 - ID#342315)
DA 540's
Thanx for the enlightenment. My comment was because of 1.5 day time. After your explanation, I can easily dial in the deception. Best damn details on a market I have ever seen. Charlie

(Fri May 22 1998 10:15 - ID#28594)
One would think someone would notice?
Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
1989 Annual Report

A Case for Fixing Exchange Rates
By Arthur J. Rolnick, Director of Research,
and Warren E. Weber, Senior Research Officer

Floating exchange rates would help balance trade in the following way. When a country runs a trade deficit ( imports more goods and services than it exports ) , some other country ( or countries ) runs a trade surplus ( exports more goods and services than it imports ) . To bring trade into balance, the prices of goods and services produced in the deficit country must fall and those in the surplus country must rise. If the prices of goods and services are slow to adjust ( as is often argued, at least for down-ward price adjustments ) , then the trade imbalance will persist. With floating exchange rates, the trade imbalance causes the
value of a deficit country's currency to fall relative to the surplus country's currency because relatively fewer goods and services are being purchased from the deficit country. The decline in the exchange rate implies that the terms of trade ( the price of the goods and services of the deficit country in terms of the goods and services of the surplus country ) will decline, even if price levels do not change. Therefore, the demand for goods and services of the deficit country increases while the demand for those of the surplus country falls.


(Fri May 22 1998 10:17 - ID#340459)
Nasdaq down more than 1% already

Gusto Oro
(Fri May 22 1998 10:17 - ID#377235)
When parents let their kids run amock, that's liberal.

John B__A
(Fri May 22 1998 10:20 - ID#211105)
D.A. silver tidbits
we appreciate the informative analysis. Between yours and APH's analysis, it seems prudent to hold reserves until a successful test of the recent $5 lows occurs.

(Fri May 22 1998 10:21 - ID#340459)
@Bart. The Palladium quote is misbehaving above.. Thanks..

(Fri May 22 1998 10:23 - ID#36156)
Palladium at -$23.60.
Does that mean they'd pay ME to take it off their hands? : )

(Fri May 22 1998 10:28 - ID#266110)
@Midas 09:45 --- Stocks on Margin... Now, I understand your anxiety!
Sorry, I didn't know. I've also been tempted to play the margin game, but I maintain discipline and have not succumbed to the Siren song of its seduction. The plain simple truth is: I want to be able to sleep at night without the hounds of distress nipping at my heels. Even if I experience a downturn of 15%, I don't have to sweat a margin call or a beforced to close out of a position due to losses.

Maybe you can put some more cash in the barrel head and reduce your margin. With the situation the way it is right now, I wouldn't do any margin until you see the DOW dip to 8800 and see some other signs of a stalling in the "blue skies" scenario. Until such time, you have the mindset of Au being "archaic" going against you, as well as lots of paper trades ( shorting and derivatives ) beating any signs of life out of the PMs.

By playing the margin game now, you are chumming the sharks. I'd hate to see you get consumed. Caution is advised at this time --- IMVHO

(Fri May 22 1998 10:30 - ID#20137)
Well, maybe Bart's tickers are broken:

Palladium shows -23.60 - 378.6 at 10:20.

Otherwise???? Guess you got to get other sources.

(Fri May 22 1998 10:31 - ID#286230)
So Gusto you are saying that the parents of Adolph Hitler, Machine Gun Kelly, Idi Amin, the UniBomber, Clifford Olsen, Jesse James, Billy the Kid, Hirohito, and Al Capone were all liberals?

(Fri May 22 1998 10:34 - ID#427357)

Per YAHOO REPORT Bolivian Mine tests indicate possible reserves and resources of legendary King Solomon Mines. Detailed info about the company may be found on the G-O-L-D E-A-G-L-E homepage - once there just scroll down TILL you see the Golden Eagle banner. It WILL be necessary to delete the extra letters "en" in word "golden" of the following URL:

(Fri May 22 1998 10:36 - ID#244418)
Y2k in '98
Re: The drop-dead date for insurance companies is 10/1/98

This is the day personal lines policies ( auto, homeowners, etc ) are issued for renewal starting 1/1/99 -- and expiring on 1/1/2000. So, write that date down as what might be an honest to goodness turning point when prediction turns to reality. Earlier I posted a link to an article about how 20% of insurance companies are in danger of going under by 2000. [BTW, I'm writing this after attending an insurance technology trade show so I've verified this from first-hand sources].

( the above is taken from )

(Fri May 22 1998 10:36 - ID#340459)
The Parents should be firm with their children, these days some parents are afraid of their teens
the schools are infiltrated sometimes by marilyn manson and satanists looking to spread evil in society where family now can even mean threesome's and a dog. Traditional Religion has been turned upside down by sick psychiatry babble, where being upright, morally stern upbringing is termed as abuse. People have forgotten the straight path and God's Laws and try to counter basic laws with lawyer's logic that is malleable to the highest bidder.

Go Silver Go..Go Gold Go..

(Fri May 22 1998 10:37 - ID#427357)

GOLDEN EAGLE stock now UP 191% this morning, but has been as high as UP 191%.

(Fri May 22 1998 10:39 - ID#31868)
Selby - it's true and when they found Adolf living in Uraguay the first words out of
his mouth were "next time, no more Mr. Nice Guy." Wherein he was shot immediately by a Mongol wearing a Sombrero at the coin swap. Who walked away muttering..."Like a barber shop...NEXT!" He was in a bad mood, the bar did not open until 9:00 a.m.

History, don't ya love it...

(Fri May 22 1998 10:40 - ID#340459)
@Lock and Lode., Thanks..
Looks like a mini war between shorts and longs in Silver today..

(Fri May 22 1998 10:40 - ID#287277)
A. Goose-- Incredible as it may seem,

the panoply of Bizarre Indicators is beginning to strongly
suggest that Paper Gold is being used to adjust/align Paper Currencies! One finds interesting data in the dark corners where the Official Information Broom doesnt clean! {:- )

PS--Ive a 7million byte+ spammer spawning in my mail box. Until he/she is removed, my mail is stuck...if I havent answered, that is why. {:- ( (

(Fri May 22 1998 10:42 - ID#427357)

Every goldbug's dream is to own one like this which triples in value over night. GOLDEN EAGLE now up 224%... and climbing

(Fri May 22 1998 10:43 - ID#263379)
Please don't shoot!
Mr. LOCK&LOAD please don't shoot me, I'm on your side. Being in the over the 50 year old age group and certainly not a yuppie. I guess I'm part of the old Pepse generation. We know and experienced alot, but some of the intellectually incompetent, mindless and very arrogant kids are making the big bucks today!
The only caveat is this represents a sort of betting/gambling on time. Will it be a week or a decade? I always question to myself are we in the right place, in the right mining stocks, in the right time in history? AND will I be smart enough to sell at the right time. Timing and second guessing these cycles is tough. As a group we are not exactly going with the stock market trend, though we may be leading a GREAT one.

I always wanted to be a pioneer of sorts........

Only time will tell.

(Fri May 22 1998 10:46 - ID#345176)

There goes another star

(Fri May 22 1998 10:47 - ID#200235)
Your post to Midas
as an investor who has very similar results as Midas, I thank you for your good words. I have bought on margin and lost l25% of a significant investment . Recently I am down 94 % in a gold mutual fund ( US Global Investors US GOLD FUND ) and over 75% loss in other gold stocks. From a contrarian point of view, maybe just maybe the tide will turn soon and gold will again have value. I agree with Midas , that the Bankers, Fund Mgrs and derivatives market are holding gold down for their own selfish reasons.

Also, the mistaken general view among the population is that gold can be mined and brought to market around $USD 230.00 per oz is undermining the POG.

My question is what PM investment would you recommend at this late hour. I have some powder left and would appreciate any and all recommendations.

Thanks in advamce.

(Fri May 22 1998 10:50 - ID#266110)
@Avalon 10:02 --- WB turning bearish on stocks.... Imagine that.
Based on reading the Tea Leaves.... that's partly why I wrote my post of 18 May @13:18. WB has seen tremendous risk in the market and moved into Bonds ( earlier in '97 ) , then added Ag to his portfolio for 5% of total holdings. He played two benefits simultaneously:
1. bargain &
2. hedge positions

This Ag provides a great hedge position but not necessarily enough. I suspect he's also buying Au and PM stocks. He just isn't saying anything about it because he's like a Dolphin in a school of Yellowfin Tuna. He won't say anything until he's had his fill ( secured as much as he can at bargain prices ) .

SO ---- The moral here is DO WHAT WB DOES. And remember any great field commander will NOT tell you what he is doing unitl AFTER he has thrown the "Hail Mary Pass" around the flank of the Iraqis.

WB has been telegraphing misinformation of late in order to get the masses off his scent. It's just like the feint that Schwartzkopf threw at Saddam when he unloaded a naval barrage and positioned an amphibous assualt that never occurred. WB has feinted the masses by bringing them back into the fold with the concept that value investing in stocks is the same game plan as before. Coca Cola and Mackie-D are still darlings for those foolish enough to bite. But the game has changed and the values are found elsewhere. So if you want to be like Saddam, then listen to what WB has to say - not what he is doing ( surreptitiously ) .

My call -- WB is buying Au and PM stocks right now! So do so likewise.

(Fri May 22 1998 10:50 - ID#345176)
Company Press Release

SOURCE: Dakota Mining Corporation

Dakota Mining Corporation Subsidiaries Announce Voluntary Reorganization
Under Chapter XI of the Bankruptcy Code

DENVER, May 22 /PRNewswire/ -- The Board of Directors of Dakota Mining Corporation ( OTC BB:DAKMF - news; ``Dakota'' ) or ( the
``Company'' ) announced today that its sole gold producing subsidiary, USMX of Alaska, Inc., ( ``USMXAK'' ) filed voluntarily in Denver,
Colorado to reorganize under Chapter XI of the Bankruptcy Code. Dakota and its subsidiaries have not been able to resolve their severe liquidity
and other financial problems. Neither Dakota nor its other operating subsidiaries have filed for bankruptcy at this time, although they may
determine to do so in the future as a result of their financial conditions.

Alan R. Bell, President and Chief Executive Officer of Dakota, stated, ``We have been in discussions with our debenture holders, principal
secured lenders and creditors for several weeks now, but have failed to reach agreement on a debt restructure that would allow the Company to
continue as a going concern.'' The $1.1 million 90-day interim financing facility provided by N M Rothschild & Sons, Limited ( ``Rothschild'' )
has expired, as a result of which Rothschild has applied the cash collateral account to satisfy that loan.

Dakota and its subsidiaries now owe an aggregate of in excess of $38 million of which approximately $18.4 million is owed to the holders of
Dakota's convertible debentures, $9.7 million is owed to Rothschild, $3.7 million is owed to Gerald Metals, Inc. and $5.4 is owed to D. H.
Blattner and Sons ( ``Blattner'' ) . Of these amounts, USMXAK owes on a secured basis $9.7 million to Rothschild, $1.7 million to Blattner and
$0.7 million to other trade creditors.

Bell continued, ``Daily operations will continue in the production of gold at Illinois Creek. Operations at other Dakota subsidiaries have already
been discontinued except for limited reclamation and compliance activities.''

Dakota continues to request that various state and federal agencies permit it to draw down on existing cash bonds for the purpose of funding
reclamation and permit obligations at certain mine sites. The Company has approximately $9 million in cash bonds associated with its Illinois
Creek, Stibnite, Gilt Edge and Goldstrike mine sites. There can be no assurance that the Company will succeed in obtaining the release of these
funds or that the funds will be adequate to satisfy all compliance obligations.

Statements in this release which are not historical data are forward looking and involve a number of risks and uncertainties, including but not
limited to the price of gold, production, construction and permitting or regulatory delays, reserve estimation of tonnage, grade and metallurgical
recoveries, exploration success and reserve growth, litigation, capital costs and other risks that are detailed in the Company's SEC filings.

For further information, please contact Alan R. Bell, President and Chief Executive Officer ( 303 ) 573-0221, FAX ( 303 ) 573-1012.

SOURCE: Dakota Mining Corporation

More Quotes and News:
Dakota Mining Corp ( OTC BB:DAKMF - news; Toronto:DKT.TO - news )
Related News Categories: mining/metals


Copyright  1998 PRNewswire. All rights reserved. Republication or redistribution of PRNewswire content is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of
PRNewswire. PRNewswire shall not be liable for any errors or delays in the content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon.
See our Important Disclaimers and Legal Information.
Questions or Comments?

(Fri May 22 1998 10:51 - ID#342376)
@ Vronsky
Any calculations on what you think the stock is worth based on proven reserves? And a personal thanks to you, it was your site and another forum that got me interested in Golden Eagle.

(Fri May 22 1998 10:55 - ID#246224)
SDRer Please help this slow child ..
You posted numbers earlier which 'told a secret'. I'm so unfocused right now! Can you please explain it to me? I'm going off to the Dunderheads Anonymous meeting this afternoon for some help. TIA.

Gusto Oro
(Fri May 22 1998 10:56 - ID#377235)
Jessie James
Selby, don't lump Jessie James in with those other scoundrels. James was merely a diehard Confederate who declined to surrender at the end of the war. Northfield, Minnesota rebuilt its post-Civil War storefronts and has an annual "Jessie James Days" to celebrate the daring attempt to rob the bank there in a Union state. Over the years, James has been good for the GDP. --AG

(Fri May 22 1998 10:57 - ID#254269)
Forbes article re WB; @ Lock & Lode, Micky D's and US Air were the two stocks he
is belived to have sold out of; possibly entirely out of Micky D.
Interesting article if you can get hold of it.

(Fri May 22 1998 11:01 - ID#254269)
@ Lock and Lode; just took another look at your 13.18 of 5/18.
Excellent piece. Fully agree. Well worth referring to every now and again.

(Fri May 22 1998 11:02 - ID#31868)
The Big Dogs are buying metal
and the shares...Bet on it...

(Fri May 22 1998 11:02 - ID#257114)
Vronsky and crazytimes
I called company contact today and he told me cost of production for the proven and probable portion is about $170/oz. Very nice indeed. Much work ahead though as we should all be aware of.

(Fri May 22 1998 11:03 - ID#266105)
@golden eagle golden eagle

Filled on 5000sh MINE @$.26sh

Thanx Vronsk' : )

(Fri May 22 1998 11:04 - ID#411149)
Big Boys Buyin
tolerant1-YOU GOT THAT RIGHT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1

Tally Ho

(Fri May 22 1998 11:06 - ID#434158)
Forbes Article re Silver, Buffet @Avalon
Forbes articles can be accessed from

(Fri May 22 1998 11:08 - ID#262242)
Real estate in southern Oregon
Date: Fri May 22 1998 06:51
Bully Beef ( Japanese tourism has been big in North America for a decade. ) ID#259282:

Bully Beef Re your 06:51 question on real estate prices in the Pacific Northwest. I live in southern Oregon Medford area. The real estate market here is booming. We have so many people moving in from Calif and buying property that the prices have gone through the roof. It is difficult to find a city lot to build on, average price $38,000. There are very few businesses for sale, any profitabel business is purchased either before or as soon as they come on the market. We thought about selling some of our ranch but were advised "if you can't invest the money at 10% or more, don't sell". Ranch property in this area is appreciating at 10% per year. My son-in-law was looking at property for a business in the Portland area but it is so high, he did not do it. I hope this has been a little help to you.

Our friend Reify is working on the first annual Kitco convention to be held August 15th in New York city. I will be there, hope to meet Bart and many others.

(Fri May 22 1998 11:13 - ID#31868)
Three Sister's more beautiful place on this planet or any other...When God dreams his mind takes a rest in the shallows there

(Fri May 22 1998 11:14 - ID#266110)
@LIBERTY 10:43 -- Don't worry, I won't shoot.
I'm only trying to provide some perspective so those who are in the brotherhood of Kitco can profit from their commitment to the tenants of this Webpage. It would be a crime for the likes of the Soros', Rothschild's, WB's, Rubins', and WJC's to be the beneficiaries while the rest of us poor schmucks get eaten up by the sharks.

(Fri May 22 1998 11:16 - ID#266110)
@tolerant 11:02 & Ray 11:04 --- Big Boyz a buyin'... Just like Joe Kennedy did
back in the '20s when he made millions on the heartache of others. Follow the principles and bulletproof yourself.

(Fri May 22 1998 11:19 - ID#228100)
Insurance Companies and Y2K
Yes indeedy! Insurance companies will be among the hardest hit by Y2K!! Another organization that will be hit hard on 10/01/98: That's the first day of the fiscal year 1999 for the US federal government.

That seems to be a great web site for Y2K issues -- I haven't seen that one before.

This whole issue should be great for PM prices... but I'm just a systems guy. Does anyone have an opinion that PM stocks and/or mutual funds will move DOWN due to Y2K issues?

One possibility that I see coming: our government "drafting" or rationing the services of computer experts. When companies get tired of paying programmers $100k+, and re-training them because they change jobs every six months, they'll complain to the federal government for "help". Any thoughts on this possibility?

(Fri May 22 1998 11:19 - ID#426220)
crazytimes (@ Vronsky) & GOLDEN EAGLE

I would not even venture a WAG as to the eventual value of Golden Eagle stock. Nonetheless, I will give you a logical way for you to determine that for yourself. Review John Disney's incisive & insightful analysis " THE MELODIOUS SYMPHONY OF HARMONY," comparing Barrick Gold ( $21 ) and Harmony Gold Mines ( $5.25 ) . It WILL be necessary to delete the extra letters "en" in word "golden" of the following URL:

(Fri May 22 1998 11:21 - ID#342315)
Vronsky re golden eagle
I tried to get into geology and ore. Got hung on a message- script will take unussually long. It did-I had to cut off and restart. Can you help on this? Thanx, Charlie

(Fri May 22 1998 11:22 - ID#20136)
Donald, did I hear that the FED drained reserves again today?

Folks draining reserves is removing usdollars from the market because to many of them are in the market. This situation is NOT good for the usdollar, ussecurities, usbonds.

Am I missing something here????

The FED has NEVER, NEVER in 13 years drained and refrained this many days in a row!!! ( Am I wrong on the 13? ) This is very important in that it points to massive glut of usdollars within our borders - read that as massive inflation.

Can anyone sled light on the logic behind the FED's recent actions over the past several weeks????

Thanks in advance

(Fri May 22 1998 11:24 - ID#31868)
If Teddy had been driving a VolksWagon he never would have made the headlines. He gives moonshot a whole new meaning...

(Fri May 22 1998 11:25 - ID#57232)
WB and Gold Stocks
Lock & Lode: Excellent advice. The question is how much of your assets should be in gold, gold stocks, cash, etc., right now. Not an easy question to answer, since a Japan financial collapse would be bearish for gold, and a Russian revolution would be bullish. WB is probably acutely aware of the cross currents between deflation and inflation. Surely our Kitco snoops can ferret out what WB is up to before it is common knowledge.

By the way, didn't he sell all of his zero-coupon bonds months ago? Now -- when he starts selling Coke and McDonald's in a big way, we should really stand up and take notice.

(Fri May 22 1998 11:26 - ID#266110)
@vronsky & crazytimes -- Golden Eagle.... Ok, you got my attention.
I went to the golden-eagle site and assumed that I should look for a stock quote. But my options for selections for my quest are too broad. Please provide some specifics, ie:
1. Exchange
2. Abbreviation
3. anything else

much oblighed.

(Fri May 22 1998 11:27 - ID#31868)
I will call Warren and Charlie and see if they will attend the Kitco festivities on the
Island that is Long...nice guys, lousy golfers though...

Gianni Dioro__A
(Fri May 22 1998 11:29 - ID#384350)
The Boy who would be King
There was once a prince named William Jefferson Rockefeller, heir to the throne of Bonerland.

When he finally took the throne and became King, he called in his Uncle Alan who was a sorcerer, and said to him, "I want to be a popular King, so I want you to perform some magic."

Uncle Alan replied, "I can lower interest rates, so that people will think they are better off, but I warn you, it's only an illusion."

"Will it make me a popular King?"

"Yes" replied Uncle Alan.

"Well then do your magic" ordered the boy King.

The plan worked and little King Willie was popular.

However, several years later his Uncle Alan started getting worried; people were talking. Uncle Alan felt that the illusion was wearing thin and that they would soon be found out. So Uncle Alan told of his plans to secretly edge up rates to the court jester, Ronnie the Robbin. This one shocked, ran to the king and told him of Uncle Alan's plan. King Willie was furious and called both his Uncle Alan and jester Ronnie into his court.

Uncle Alan tried to explain that the game was getting dangerous, but the boy king started throwing a tantrum. "I want to be a popular king, a popular king. You'll do nothing to change my popularity. Now remove yourself from my presence."

Uncle Alan left with his tail between his legs, the jester ronnie slipped away with a grin. The boy King just admired himself in the mirror, pointed at his reflection, and said "a popular king".

( To be continued as events unfold )

(Fri May 22 1998 11:30 - ID#36156)
Lock&Lode - Golden Eagle Quote - go here...

(Fri May 22 1998 11:31 - ID#270247)
Bully Beef: Your 06:51
If your looking into the Portland or Northwest Real Estate Market, my suggestion is don't. Having lived here all my life, I've seen this area go from a beautiful, pleasant area to an overpriced smaller LA. Real Estate prices have skyrocketed ( we are just behind San Francisco now ) . I saw a burnt out house on a VERY small lot overlooking the Sandy river just outside of Portland that they were asking $80,000. You could barely park a large RV on the property. Now is not the time to get in, 10 years ago was. Unfortunatly, I was just graduating from high school then.

With all the Asian problems occuring, what seems to be a major slowdown looming for the high tech industry, the death of the commercial fishing industry, and not much left in logging the "booming" economy here is going to come to a screeching halt. Add to that all kinds of tax and problems and school funding problems and I think the real estate market is going to have to take a major nose dive pretty soon.

Also keep in mind, there are several animals that may be added to the endangered species list and this could have many effects on real estate owners up here.

Of course all this is simply IMHO.

(Fri May 22 1998 11:34 - ID#266105)
@t1--I am dyslexic of borg. Prepare to have your ass laminated.

Nice view of North and South Sister from top of middle.

(Fri May 22 1998 11:41 - ID#31868)
That's only cause she had an outy...sheesh..............

(Fri May 22 1998 11:42 - ID#57232)
Drained Fed Reserves
A. Goose: Donald is really the expert on this. My only take is that Japan or the EURO countries want something in exchange for their US treasuries - other than US dollars. Whatever they want, AG must creat dollars ( or debt ) in proportion to the Japanese or EURO demands. Any way you look at it, this is coming out of our collective hides -- either as dollar inflation, or deferred debt. So far I have not noticed an increase in our national debt, but we need to check again.

I have another guess on this matter. AG will not want to increase the money supply directly, as that would go right into the stock market bubble. No matter what, he cannot raise rates under the world is safe for fiat currencies ( ha! ) . I'm sure he would use Houdini or David Copperfield if he could -- to give Japan/Europe real assets, and at the same time not inflate the dollar.

Perhaps Donald can explain to us what AG's options might be.

(Fri May 22 1998 11:49 - ID#427357)
Gabelli Gold - Number ONE Gold Fund in World - UP 17.5% YTD

Top 10 Holdings ( as of 31-DEC-96 ) - Per Gabelli website

Randgold & Exploration: 8.14%

Stillwater Mining: 4.73%

Goldcorp Cl A: 4.53%

TVX Gold: 4.14%

Newmont Mining: 3.96%

Guyanor Ressources Cl B: 3.75%

IAM Gold: 3.72%

Bema Gold Cv 7.5%:

Euro-Nevada Mining: 3.10%

Randgold Resources: 3.03%

A review of the report by POLARBEAR & John Disney might prove fruitful - "RANDGOLD - South African Mining" - It WILL be necessary to delete the extra letters "en" in word "golden" of the following URL:

(Fri May 22 1998 12:00 - ID#210235)
@We lost one, temporarily
Aurator has Emailed that he can't log onto Kitco1 - for a few days now. He's starting to have serious withdrawal symptoms. Anyone with greetings or suggestions is urged to send him a line.

(Fri May 22 1998 12:00 - ID#266110)
@JTF 11:25 --- You're a very perceptive person on the trends out there.
WB's purchase of Ag was only 5% of his ammo. It is a hedge position. I think he will continue to ride the market and divest himself incrementally - such as he has already done with some of his Coke and Mackie-D. But he can't do too much divestment too quickly, or he will throw the entire ballet out of balance.

SO, what he does is to divest himself of small percentage positions of stocks and reinvest in hedge positions of direct tangible PMs ( and bonds - as he as already done ) . The wise sage advice from many fronts is to be invested in at least 5% of your powder in Ag and 5% in Au ( both tangible ) at all times - especially now. So, If WB has just finished shoring up his 5% in Ag, then it stands to reason that he is doing the same in Au ( at such historical low prices - exactly the same play as the average price of Ag @~$5/oz ) .

Regarding honds - My understanding is that he only sold a percentage of his bonds and made ~$100 million on $20 billion worth of total bond holdings. He has not divested himself of his total bond portfolio. This would have only been a percentage move to make a great return as there is the immediate threat of bond % going up. Once rates go back up, then he should get back in with some more purchases.

NOTE: Some sources recommend positioning of up to 20% in Ag and another 20% in Au ( both tangible positions ) . Then, expand with additional percentages in PM stocks. Regarding continued buying of 20% tangible Ag and Au, plus stocks - it is based upon both the tangibles and the stocks being major bargains right now. Its also a contrarian play which doubles the reasoning. And you get some major hedging insurance which makes it a triple play. SOme out there see an extremely dangerous landscape and expect a mighty blowoff of the Stock Market. They want to have the Coke concession when those thirsty fans hit the 5th inning... ( Re my earlier post of 09:38 ) . They are also scared to death about the love for paper - ie. derivatives, shorts, and the like - where the actual commodity or stock is archaic and the BIG money is always made with the paper stuff ( of course with no inherent risk ) .

I suspect that WB is also buying PM stocks as well. It only makes sense for the "greatest investor" of the 20th century to take a position in PM stocks - based on the simple concept of VALUE as it tied to contrarian thinking.

Your question about what other markets to be in right now. That's a much bigger discussion based on what side of the merrygoround you're on right now. I have my own theory and will share it in the future, but for right now, I don't have the time.

Hope this helps - for what it's worth.

(Fri May 22 1998 12:01 - ID#20136)

Date: Fri May 22 1998 11:42
JTF ( Drained Fed Reserves ) ID#57232:

JTF I am sure you are right about Alan using every magic trick/ ( slight of hand ) to hide the serious situation occuring the this time. But it seems to me that he and Rubin have finally run out of wiggle room. I am looking at the recent actions of the FED as a fianl indicator. What will happen next? He is getting overrun with usdollars. He issues special bonds and special securities. The people and governments that take these bonds and securities on specail take them and liquidate them as fast as they can. And it keeps on and on UNTIL...

What is NEXT???

(Fri May 22 1998 12:03 - ID#266110)
@HernyD 11:30 --- Many thanks. You are a gentleman.

(Fri May 22 1998 12:04 - ID#20136)
Ouch!!! spelling was terrible. Sorry JTF, I will do better next time.

USdollar is the key NOW. FED actions are telling us that the USdollar is very very sick and no one wants it, contrary to the USG PR machine.

got to run.


(Fri May 22 1998 12:05 - ID#263379)
Dakota Mining Subsidiary Bankruptcy
OK analysts out there! Does anyone know the real inside scoop on Dakota Mining. I looked at the company and thought it to be a RAIDERS target....... Low corporate cost per oz, 100,000 - 200,000 oz production, huge gold inventory ( 50,000 - 70,000oz as of jan 1 without costs ) . The debt should have been chewed up and spit out! The rest manageable. So, what happened? What is Subsidiary Bankruptcy about, and is this a management ploy or the kiss of death?

Who knows the story and can postulate the plan?

(Fri May 22 1998 12:06 - ID#22956)
ROFLOL.....spilling coffee and scattering papers everywhere!
2BR02B? ( @t1--I am dyslexic of borg. Prepare to have your ass laminated. ) ID#266105:


funny stuff that... clean the mess


(Fri May 22 1998 12:07 - ID#210235)
My goodness, heard that
6 people have died while taking Viagra. Phizer ( sp? ) has been halted. Don't know if it's a drug interaction problem or what.

(Fri May 22 1998 12:11 - ID#266110)
@AuH2O 10:47 --- Is this post directed toward me? If so, then please specify.
If it is and you are interested in my take, then I will generate some thought. But you must make a request, because I don't want to be presumptuous.

(Fri May 22 1998 12:12 - ID#342315)
A.Goose re AG specials
I believe you nailed that one. Take em on special and sell asap. AG is shovelling sh!t against the tide

(Fri May 22 1998 12:12 - ID#401460)
Sell Programs?

I wonder how many Brokers have and are leaving early today?
I wonder how many have put in short, stops, and sell programs - just in case.
At what Dow level -100 points or -50 points. This could get interesting today.

Then again maybe not.


PS: It is good to see Gold trading again, I guess they called off the Holiday? Rothschild must have showed up for work?

(Fri May 22 1998 12:15 - ID#27341)
Thats a HARD one to swollow,,,

(Fri May 22 1998 12:15 - ID#401460)

Jealous Husbands maybe?

No, I think it is drug interaction, blood pressure medication I think.


(Fri May 22 1998 12:17 - ID#36977)
Alert: Pfizer confirms Viagra deaths
United Press International - May 22, 1998 12:15

WASHINGTON, May 22 ( UPI ) - The Pfizer drug company has confirmed six
deaths among Viagra users.

Pfizer notified the federal Food and Drug Administration of the
deaths Thursday. Pfizer spokesman Andy McCormick says there will be ``no
change in the prescribing status'' of the impotence drug.

The company released a warning Thursday that patients using nitrate-
based heart medication should not use Viagra but the statement did not
mention the six deaths.

FDA spokesperson Ivy Kupek confirmed that the administration demands
that pharmaceutical-related deaths be reported within 15 days. She said
the Pfizer notification conformed to those guidelines.

However, Kupek did caution that circumstances of deaths among users
of particular medications are not reported, merely that users of a
particular prescribed substance have died.


Copyright 1998 by United Press International.

All rights reserved.

(Fri May 22 1998 12:22 - ID#36156)

(Fri May 22 1998 12:25 - ID#317193)
HenryD.....I'm with EB...


(Fri May 22 1998 12:27 - ID#238295)
James Turk thinks that current gold weakness reflects heavy Dutch selling prior to ECU announcement of gold reserve levels. This from USA gold site.

(Fri May 22 1998 12:28 - ID#36156)
Tom - Couldn't resist (hee, hee).....
Go Gold!

(Fri May 22 1998 12:30 - ID#317193)
So should I be worried when the wife gives me nitro,viagra,nicotine patches and cigs? You think there is a problem?

Off to hit the white orb. Try to keep the shorts from running to many stops today.


(Fri May 22 1998 12:31 - ID#317193)
Bad Fingers

(Fri May 22 1998 12:31 - ID#22956)
......Viagra Deaths......
At least they went with smiles on their faces.......... ( bad joke chuckle ) ..............I'd rather die that way then, automobile accident or cancer, etc........... excercise and stay fit in all ways..... ( counting my lucky stars ) ...


go silver...... ( dammit ) ( ! ) .

(Fri May 22 1998 12:33 - ID#266105)

( snort! )

(Fri May 22 1998 12:37 - ID#401460)
Sell Programs Yes?

Dow -54 points
Let her Rip!!!!!


(Fri May 22 1998 12:37 - ID#266110)
@Prometheus 12:07 --- RE: Viagra interaction with other drugs - 6 die
Its time to shut down Pfizer. It is outrageous that a drug manufacturer can put such a dangerous substance on the market that is now proven to kill people. But what makes it worse, people are being killed without any warning. This is totally unacceptable. Besides establishing an FPL ( Federal Prescription License ) , we must impose a 5 day waiting period before anyone can get this drug. Then we can check into their background and determine whether they are taking any drugs that might potentially interact with Viagra. We can also check to see if the potential recipient of this dangerous drug is psychologically stable enough to handle it. And if we find out that they're a sex criminal, then we can assure that they don't rape or molest anyone.

Another thing that we must do is to reduce the number of Viagra capsules that are administered with each prescription. We must restrict the size of the drug vial that can be used and make sure that it is not a high capacity vial. We will limit it to a 10 capsule capacity.

And then there's the children... What will happen when youngsters, who are trying to be real studs ( just emulating the President ) . To think that Pfizer would target the children. It's time to take on big Drug Companies who are victimizing adults and children as they reap their big profits while others suffer. This travesty has gone on long enough. We need to secure a Drug Company settlement and save our children.

Sound like any other kinds of Govt CRISES?

(Fri May 22 1998 12:47 - ID#373403)
Fed draining liquidity?
What does this mean? If foreign holdings of U.S. dollars are heading back to the U.S., the Fed can create more bonds to soak up the cash but since the majority of new bonds were being purchased by foreign investors in the past few years, who would want them? If they tried, the market would demand higher compensation and i-rates would rise.

If the Fed does nothing, then either the dollar becomes devalued and import prices rise, or the foreign held dollars buy up U.S. assets creating bubbles ( bigger bubbles that is ) .

The evil seeds sewn by greedy short sighted politicians and weak monetary authorities are beginning to be harvest.

(Fri May 22 1998 12:47 - ID#373346)
How many shares outstanding for Golden-Eagle International?
How much debt?

Why has this stock not been noticed before?

Just Curious.

(Fri May 22 1998 12:48 - ID#57232)
All: Looks like the initial controlled studies were controlled too closely. Perhaps the temptation to overdose is too great, or perhaps the individuals that wish the most to take it are already on meds known to reduce sexual responsiveness. If it is the latter, I think we will find out about all the possible drug interaction side effects within months. This may be a boom rapidly heading for a bust.

(Fri May 22 1998 12:49 - ID#340459)
Everything is down today except food and grain

(Fri May 22 1998 12:51 - ID#200235)
LOck & Lode
I would appreciate any PM stock recommendations that you have researched.

After all my losses, I am still a believer but am afraid of my own judgement. I have small position in Rangy thanks to Vronsky. I prefer NA stocks so I can keep up with them easily.

Thanks in advance.

(Fri May 22 1998 12:52 - ID#266105)

(Fri May 22 1998 12:53 - ID#210235)
Don't worry, the big guys aren't pulling the drug, or even changing the way it's being prescribed. hehehe. Wonder how many geezers will use it as a suicide drug. Happy byebye and she gets to collect insurance, too!

Funny you should compare it to guns....I was just wondering if marijuana has killed 6 people yet. Of course, if they legalized drugs, how could they justify total reportage of all our financial transactions and all those other measures taken over the years?

William F. Buckley wrote an open letter to Ron Reagan when the latter was considering starting the big war on drugs, I think it was 1983. I no longer have that issue, but he was as precient as ANYONE I've ever read. He predicted the rise of the gangs, the losses of freedom, the high cost to government, and compared it to the rise of the gansterism in the prohibition. Anyone out there have a copy of it? My library no longer has that issue.

Richard Burke
(Fri May 22 1998 13:01 - ID#411318)
Golden Eagle
I took Vronsky's advice and prepared a table similar to the one Disney prepared for ABX and Harmony. Interesting. Assuming 87.8 million shares still outstanding, Resources = Indicated Resources at 78 million oz ( Inferred are 157 million oz - did Disney use Indicated or Inferred? ) , and 120,000 oz of annual production @$120/oz ( taken from SEC report ) , the numbers look better than Harmony for the most part. Market cap is only $38.6 million ( at $0.44/share ) although a lot of shares are outstanding. Market Cap/Prodn Oz is $321 less than Harmony's $355 and ABX's $2726. Resources/share are .888 oz compared to Harmony's 1.43 and ABX's .190. Harmony has the advantage here because of the fewer shares outstanding. Market price per Resource Oz is $0.49 versus Harmony's $3.68 and ABX's $115. If you use Inferred Oz, which are double the Indicated Oz, in the calculations, the numbers are even better, much better. If they can get their production up from the initially planned 120,000 Oz, this stock will be priced much better than today. I am not a broker or involved with this stock in any way, except that I bought some this morning.

Gianni Dioro__A
(Fri May 22 1998 13:03 - ID#384350)
@lock&lod et al, WB
First, I don't think Buffett would be buying mining shares. It's not his style. I think he is mostly playing for the physical of Silver, though I wouldn't rule out Gold.

He bought Silver on Jan 12 when the price plunged sharply to just below $5.50, and I would think he would be a buyer at these prices.

I would also think that he dumped his entire stake of McDonald's last year. There are also rumours that he has been dumping his T-Bonds.

Berkshire's 1st qrtr earnings came out last week and were mediocre. Of note were large Capital Gains, which means he was dumping stocks and/or Treasuries. I believe he did cash out of USAir in the 1st qrtr, but there must be other sales as well, and I seriously doubt it was Silver. McDonald's was interesting because he dumped it shortly after buying it. I wonder if the Asian meltdown threw a monkey wrench into his cashflow valuations.

Buffett doesn't really give out misinformation. He just throws off clues. The media spins what he says into a more positive note. His annual report was IMO extremely bearish on the stock market. You didn't really even have to read between the lines. You just had to read it, and look at his actions, buying Silver, paring equities.

(Fri May 22 1998 13:07 - ID#348286)
@MINE:OTCBB & Analyst Howard Ruff
If I read the report right, they have only 6.4 million sares out - can someone confirm this ??? Some more news attached:
Friday March 20, 10:59 am Eastern Time

Company Press Release

Golden Eagle President Terry Turner's Second Appearance on "Invest America" to Air March 21-28

Analyst Howard Ruff Says Gold Mining Stocks Are "Grossly Undervalued"

DENVER-- ( BUSINESS WIRE ) --March 20, 1998-- Golden Eagle International Inc. ( OTC BB:MINE - news ) announced today that company President Terry C. Turner's second appearance on the nationally syndicated financial talk show ``Invest America'' will air March 21-28 and be carried by more than 100 television stations across the country.

The 30-minute program is hosted by Morton Downey, Jr., who is joined by Howard Ruff, an analyst, author, and publisher of the best-selling investment publication Ruff Times, and host of the former nationally syndicated financial talk show ``Ruff House.''

Turner's appearance is a result of an agreement signed between Golden Eagle International Inc. and Langley Downey Entertainment, the producer of ``Invest America.''

At the outset of the program, Ruff advises that in evaluating a gold mining stock, one must ask the question, `` 'Does its deposit have a history of production?' The area of Golden Eagle was looted by the Spanish and the gold was sent back to Europe, where it created a 100-year inflation.''

Adding that he has a reputation for being bullish on the stock market most of the time, Ruff believes that if people take a good hard look at these gold mining stocks, such as Golden Eagle, ``...they will make more money for every dollar invested than anything else they could do with their money today...Why would you want to buy gold mining stocks today? Because they are grossly undervalued,'' Ruff says. ``The most undervalued stocks of the industrial sector today are the gold mining stocks...Golden Eagle is well-under priced in my opinion.''

``We are very pleased with the outcome of this segment of 'Invest America,''' said Terry Turner. ``I believe that Howard Ruff has a unique vision of the mining industry and it will prove to be accurate for those with insight enough to follow his advice.''

Golden Eagle International Inc. is a Denver-based gold mining and exploration company. The company is currently focusing its efforts on developing the mining rights it owns on 2,004 hectares of ground with 13 mine sites in Cangalli, Bolivia.

For investor relations information, please call Sabrina Martinez at 303/694-6101 or visit the company's Website: www.golden Media inquiries should be directed to Richard Pinto at 212/688-8599 or Guy Murrel at 303/581-7760.

Richard Burke
(Fri May 22 1998 13:09 - ID#411318)
It looks like we may hit the XAU 79/80 target some of us have been talking about - getting close. If Cyclist is right, however, we may not get there for another week. More basing and then up?

(Fri May 22 1998 13:12 - ID#298259)
2BR02B...tman...Golden Eagle Group is not Golden Eagle Int'l...

Golden Eagle Group, Inc. ( "GEGP" or the "Company" ) , through its
wholly-owned subsidiaries, is engaged in the business of providing international transportation logistics and related services.

(Fri May 22 1998 13:18 - ID#339274)
daily cycle and weekly cycle to bottom today.Next week seasonal
cycle starting with an upward bias This is of course FWIW.

Richard Burke
(Fri May 22 1998 13:20 - ID#411318)
Golden Eagle
MoReGoLd and Others: The Nov. SEC report showed 87.8 million shares outstanding. I checked with Investor Relations a few minutes ago and they said additional shares have been issued for services, the total is now between 90 and 100 million shares out. They are not yet in full production, but should be in a couple of months.

(Fri May 22 1998 13:22 - ID#373376)
Thanks Frustrated. I would think that Golden Eagle International has a hefty amount of shares outstanding but this is just a guess.

I'd be very interested in answering these questions before investing. I'll probably call the company if I can get through today to check on these issues. If someone else knows please let us know.

Richard Burke
(Fri May 22 1998 13:23 - ID#411318)
Cyclist: You were there. Thanks for the comment.

(Fri May 22 1998 13:25 - ID#410198)
Gianni Dioro,off topic, how goes the vote?

(Fri May 22 1998 13:26 - ID#57232)
What can AG do that does not inflate today's dollar?
A. Goose: I've been thinking -- deferred debt is the most likely wiggle room. No one except us Kitcoites and a few others would notice another trillion in the federal debt -- and it would not come home to roost until WJC and AG were long gone. Of course our children would face a bigger mountain of debt and possible deferred disaster.

Another sleight of hand would be to quietly raid the entitlements -- if there is anything left that has not been raided. You can bet that WJC will do everything in his power to keep the markets up. Anyone who is capable of destabilizing the world nuclear balance for profit is capable of raiding Social Security, or boosting the national debt for some other administration to worry about 10 years from now. Imagine the pressure he must be putting on AG not to disturb the markets.

On the other hand -- the dollar does need to come down abit -- right now.

(Fri May 22 1998 13:31 - ID#298259)
see Richard Burke's 13.01 post. Says 87 mill shares outstanding.

(Fri May 22 1998 13:32 - ID#286230)
Gusto Oro (Jessie James)
Sorry --didn't mean to lump local heros into the group.

(Fri May 22 1998 13:41 - ID#339274)
FWIW The XAU is a buy 81.20 with a stop 80.50.Have some happy trading

(Fri May 22 1998 13:47 - ID#225273)
Cyclist & XAU
How you doin' pard,

Does your message mean to buy the XAU up to 81.20 or to wait until it reaches 81.20 and buy it?

Thanx in advance,

The Preacher

(Fri May 22 1998 13:51 - ID#252127)
Golden Eagle Int'l

I can't see how a company can come up with such a large amount of inferred ounces without a large number of drill holes. Thread carefully, thread carefully

(Fri May 22 1998 13:54 - ID#343171)
Jack and others: Golden Eagle may be a turkey
I think most on this thread would be very suspicious of this company and their 'reserves' report. I wonder if they had any Filipino geologists do the sampling.

(Fri May 22 1998 13:56 - ID#339274)
I will be buying when 81.20 has crossed on the upside.
Xau is completing a reverse head and shoulder formation.
Stops I put in at 80.50.

(Fri May 22 1998 13:57 - ID#286279)

(Fri May 22 1998 13:58 - ID#225273)
Cyclist, Thanx
I'll be watching for 81.20 this afternoon, perhaps.

The Preacher

(Fri May 22 1998 13:59 - ID#298259)
CoolJing...Golden Eagle Annoc Bolivian Gold Reserve Results ...
(Fri May 22 1998 14:03 - ID#348229)
Gold and Silver Analysis
Our market analysis on gold and silver has been posted to our website at

(Fri May 22 1998 14:03 - ID#57232)
FBI Fund raising investigation began in 1992

Suppressed all this time? Not good.

(Fri May 22 1998 14:07 - ID#340344)
Many people post ideas and suggestions for the good of all, and
those people are pure of heart.

Some people post "information" about companies or metals, and
it becomes clear to us that they are hoping we will invest
money in the same way, so as to support their investment.

If someone really wants to be of help to us in the Kitco
community, he can give us information on a timely basis.

One guy rather incessantly encourages us to check out HIS
website, rather than to read Kitco ( and maybe support Kitco )
and he also toots his horn about how much his namesake stock
has ALREADY gone up. Gee, that's just what I want to do, is
buy some of that stuff that just now doubled or tripled! As
my New Zealand friends say, "Been there, done that."

If ever you newbies wonder why it is that Bart makes it a bit
difficult to access golden eagle site from here, well, it sure
is clear to me that, in my opinion, Bart wants to stifle the
rather incessant *free* advertising that, in my opinion, Vronsky
takes *unfair* *advantage* *of*.

I will be the first to say that Vronsky's site has absolutely
brilliant essays posted on it, and I have complimented him on
that. However, I am a firm believer in fair play, and Vronsky's
advertising on Kitco is akin to your competitor standing outside
your storefront, handing out HIS sales flyers. I always like
to think about *the intention* of the poster, just as I think
about what Warren Buffett is *doing*, and then I force myself to
look at the *words he says* with healthy skepticism

Gianni Dioro__A
(Fri May 22 1998 14:09 - ID#384350)
@robnoel, the vote
They said on the news, large voter turnout in the North. It seems pretty noneventful around here. People aren't being told the whole story. I am not registered to vote, I'll see what people say in the pub tonight.

(Fri May 22 1998 14:16 - ID#266110)
@Gianni Dioro 13:03 --- Admitted, potential WB purchase of PM stocks is pure conjecture
BUT... bear with me on this one. How many people would have believed a WB direct purchase of tangible Ag from '97 through '98... much less the quantity? Was that in keeping with the WB methodology? According to your arguement ( the way I hear it ) it would NOT have matched his style....because prior to his announcement, he never purchased 5% tangible Ag. But WB did make the purchase and created a real reaction - one of virtual disbelief. Why? Because he went outside the pattern of the "typical" WB methodology ( at least as it is understood by the masses and talking heads ) .

So, if tangible Ag was good then why not PM stocks? They play off the same concept and bring the potential of even better returns as the PMs move upward at an accelerated rate compared to the tangible. They're both smart moves. I'm sorry, but I don't understand why one is good ( Ag purchase ) and the other isn't ( potential PM stock purchases ) . Is it just because he announced the Ag purchase that we accept it as NOW being "his style".

My arguement - Unless WB was virtually forced to make an announcement of Ag purchases, we would not have known ( at least not in the short term ) . He simply went for value and a bargain when he saw it. Why not the same with PM stocks? They're a great bargain and represent a great value when everything else is overvalued. By buying PM stocks, he is still making investments in the same basic arena ( that being stocks ) , but just shifted his sighting to another sector.

He's like Peter Rabbit who nibbles on the carrot tops of great values. Do you think that LePierre Hare would overlook a nice juicy morsel ( PM stock ) just because it wasn't his "style" ( according to someone elses determination ) ? Certainly not, Herr Hare would savor every little morsel by himself and then ( maybe ) let you know how great the vintage was AFTER he completed his consumption. --- WB has said it himself that he looks for value and is a long term holder of whatever he buys. I think it makes sense that PMs are a great value and good for long-term holding. Similarly, I think that PM stocks are a great value and good for long-term holding.

DISCLAIMER: If I have given the impression that the potential purchase of PM stocks by WB is an absolute, then I want to be on record that I never intended to project this. What I will go on record about is - WB surprised people with a tangible Ag purchase. I see the triple play benefits that I specified in my 12:00 post. By following the same pattern and logic, it stands to reason that WB MIGHT be buying AU and PM stocks for the same kind of reasons ( only the PM stocks bring double play benefits instead ) . I will not be the least bit surprised to find out in the future that he has done something like this. Only time will tell.

My reason for bringing this to the attention of Kitcoites is to present what I see as a pattern. And one that I think would make sense if one were WB. So, if it would make sense for WB to do it, then why not present an arguement so Kitcoites can follow the principle and make some decent gains. I am convinced that it will be a great play. Again, only time will tell.

Caveat Emptor - ye Kitcoites

Gianni Dioro__A
(Fri May 22 1998 14:21 - ID#384350)
Viagra, no more?
Since you can't patent a plant, animal, nor mineral, pharmaceuticals issue patented chemical compounds that are foreign to the human body.

If this stuff becomes illegal, maybe Klinton inKorporated will sell it parcel post out of Mena, AK.

John Disney__A
(Fri May 22 1998 14:25 - ID#24135)
Is EVERYTHING .. ie inferred .. projected
... imagined .. thought of.. proven..
unproven.. discussed over lunch ..
came to me in a dream .. only kidding

(Fri May 22 1998 14:26 - ID#266110)
@ChasAbar 14:07 -- An excellent post, thanks - "Printed it, read it".
You speak with soft wisdom.

(Fri May 22 1998 14:29 - ID#410198)
Gianni Dioro,what a surprise ,wish i could join you,have one for me,keep us updated thanks buddy

(Fri May 22 1998 14:44 - ID#57232)
All: Those of you who are interested may wish to periodically peruse ANOTHER's or Friend of ANOTHER's comments. Michael Kosares has offered them a more peaceful environment for dialogue than Kitco, IMHO. Despite the loss of the diversity of questions posed on Kitco, MK has made the dialogue worthwhile, as he is certainly as knowlegable about gold as any one of the most seasoned Kitcoites. ANOTHER's comments are still obscure to me, but it is clear that there is knowledge about the gold markets behind the mystery, whoever he is.

Most of the more seasoned Kitcoites may get little out of the perusal, but those who are newer to gold may learn something. Just as we have learned about Frank Veneroso's lack of techical prowess, every source that we have about gold has its own unique strengths and weaknesses which need to be discerned. No single source should be taken as gospel, but it is also best not to ignore any potential sources of information either. The is the essence of the whole internet ( information ) revolution.

I guess the best way of putting this is that most of the best cutting edge technical stuff about gold is still to be found on Kitco - not elsewhere. Thank you, APH, RJ, D.A., Cyclist, EB and others. And most of all Bart Kitner.

(Fri May 22 1998 14:53 - ID#373376)
Frustrated, Others:
MINE looks very interesting ( and risky ) . The market is valuing the company at around 30 Million ( With 100 million shares outstanding ) . With 6 Million ounces proven this equates to about $5.00 per ounce.

The company says they can mine at $170, I heard someone say earlier?
If so, at the current gold price of $300 they are tremendously undervalued. But...again, can this company sustain through this low gold price? Produce adequate financing ( I doubt it, a major would take 70-80 % to get this thing moving ) ? How much debt do they have? I'm sure they would have to dilute shares more from here.

Jack, you're right. Be careful. Been there, done that.

John Disney__A
(Fri May 22 1998 14:54 - ID#24135)
Wouldn't you say ..
cyclist ..
that IF the XAU is a BUY at 81.2 ..
with a STOP at 80.5 ( I like that stop ) ..
then its a short at 80 ???

A busted head and shoulders is NOT a
pretty sight.

Richard Burke
(Fri May 22 1998 15:02 - ID#411318)
IYour Earlier Post
ChasAbar: I cannot disagree with you with respect to Vronsky, but I do with your wish for people to post information for the good of all. However, there is nothing wrong in my view if someone posts information about a stock as long as he/she declares his/her interest. I am very happy to get information that way - it could, after analysis, be useful information. I made such a posting earlier this morning hoping that the information I was providing could be of use to others. If my stock went up because of it, all the better - but that was not my main purpose. Best regards from a Canuck.

(Fri May 22 1998 15:06 - ID#401460)
Just Out! News

Major ruling by judge,
Secret Service has to testify.


(Fri May 22 1998 15:06 - ID#222235)
@The net's closing in . . . .
Did you all notice that vote of 402 to 0 Tuesday evening to support immunity grants on the China/NDC payoff that the Dems had held up in committee? I don't recall any substantive vote with such odds before. Maybe to declare war after Pearl Harbor?

Here's new news:

(Fri May 22 1998 15:08 - ID#401460)
Market Reaction?

Watch the Market Now DOW -24


(Fri May 22 1998 15:10 - ID#298259)
Yes, I would be very careful. I couldn't find any financials. None of the SEC reports I viewed had financials attached.

They did say on their website that they have incurred substancial losses ...and this was in the article I referenced:

n addition, shareholders and prospective shareholders should take notice of the fact that the company's filings of its 10K Annual Report for 1997,
and its 10Q Quarterly Report for the first quarter of 1998, are not current due to an error on the part of the company's subsidiary's independent auditor in Bolivia regarding U.S. Generally Accepted Accounting Principles ( ``GAAP'' ) .

Would need to study further before jumping on board.

(Fri May 22 1998 15:11 - ID#254269)
@ High Rise; why do these things always happen before a .............................
long weekend ?

Gianni Dioro__A
(Fri May 22 1998 15:12 - ID#384350)
@lock&lode, WB and PM shares
First of all, his Silver purchase was 2% of portfolio as of Feb, and 2nd, I don't think he has sold any of his Coke holding.

Okay, I wouldn't rule it out entirely that WB is buying PM shares, but I still say it's not his style. Also, just because it may not be his style, doesn't mean that he doesn't find the sector attractive.

Now, Buffett recognizes that the economy has an inflationary bent, and therefore doesn't like to invest in capital intensive industries. He looks at Return on Assets as a key factor in making an investment decision. Companies that are forced to replenish plant, property and equipment at ever increasing prices usually underperform companies who have similar earnings but fewer assets.

Buffett likes companies that have a monopoly, or such a competitive advantage that it is next to a monopoly. Also, he asks himself if a given company will retain this "monopoly" status 20 years down the road. Coca-Cola fits into this line of thinking. Obviously people can bid Coke up to the sky, and a mining company down to the ground, reversing the attractiveness. However, most mining companies don't have this monopoly type advantage. I suppose DeBeers and its diamond cartel might have it.

There are also scams in the mining and exploration industries. I remember Buffett talking about the industry, and referred to a comment by a young lady talking about a greedy man who ran a mining company. She said, "If that company ever does find gold, that old man will steal it."

Finally, Buffett is often mistaken as being only in for the long haul. That is only part of his game. He also speculates in arbitraged postions. I am uncertain, if Silver was a pure speculation play or if it was a hedge against dollar turmoil in the future. I do think he is expecting a good return on Silver, and will wait for it.

If Buffett was certain of a company's proven reserves, integrity of management, debt levels, lowest-cost producer, then he might purchase into PM shares. Because most all mining companies are highly leveraged, I think Buffett would feel more comfortable in physical Silver, for if Silver plunges, he'll just sit it out and/or buy more. The effects of a prolonged bout of much lower metal prices would shut down a lot of mines.

He may also feel that the sector is attractive, but wouldn't feel comfortable picking a given company. He and Mr Munger said recently that they correctly felt that the pharmaceutical industry would outperform in the past 5 years, but they didn't know how to correctly value any given company in the sector, so they didn't invest.

(Fri May 22 1998 15:14 - ID#401460)
Nothing Scares this Market

Dow - 19.00
They are still buying "the dips" and on bad news. This has to be good for Gold eventially; keeps the inflationary, optimistic, positve, keep spending attitude alive. Maybe?
Nasdaq -16.58


(Fri May 22 1998 15:21 - ID#57232)
Secret Service, USA Gold
Highrise: Testimony from Secret Service would be highly significant, as I think they have seen quite a bit. However, BC et al might appeal this to the Supreme Court if they can.

All: You should see Michael Kosares USAgold daily summary, if you have not. The rumor from James Turk is that the Dutch CB wishes to sell gold before official EURO gold reserves are announced. Thus, the reasoning is that the time to buy gold is on the date of the announcement of Dutch CB sales. Interesting. However, I wonder if the Europeans really want anyone to know just what the internal or external gold reserves are to be. Their currency so far seems to be a 'fiat' one.

I really think any soldly gold-backed currencies are going to come first from SEAsia, not from the EURO. The pro-gold stance of Germany ( and France ) will be diluted by the other members of the 'committee'. The EURO does not seem to be closely associated with the BIS, whereas China, and certain moslem nations seem to have more in common.

(Fri May 22 1998 15:25 - ID#339274)
John Disney
Xau hasn't crossed 81.20 only touched it once.My suggestion is to
stand aside,due to daily and weekly cycles bottoming and
the seasonal getting positive.
Technically speaking,I'm still waiting for 79.5. with a stop loss
78.5.I don't know if we are going to see it.

(Fri May 22 1998 15:27 - ID#401460)

You are right, things always seem to happen on a late Friday PM or on the Weekend...or they have another news item released as a smoke screen, in an effort to hide the main event.

It is all controlled as not to shake / sink the boat. No one wants the credit for starting a World wide economic collapse...or they own the Judge.

Someone posted earlier today or last night, that, today or this weekend, Japan was going to be selling US Bonds to raise $ for supporting the YEN. This is suppose to go unnoticed.

There is a lot that happens after hours. And, we have no access to information about such transactions.

IMHO Gold trading is the worst example of this. We have no idea of what is really happening with Gold. Where, when. how, who, etc. we have no idea, just follow Kitco for a while and you can see this.

What did Gold do last night?


(Fri May 22 1998 15:31 - ID#343171)
Golden Eagle 6 million ounce 'proven' is most probably way over stated. All of the grade/ton calculations come from surface sampling, and from their web site these samples ( all? ) appear to be assays of 'concentrates'.

These can be calculated incorrectly, sampled improperly, mis-weighed,etc., leading to erroneous conclusions. Coupled with a company willing to release this report, with ZERO drill holes, raises all sorts of warning bells. I evaluate emerging gold discoveries for a living and while this property is worth investigating none of the material from what I have read on their website could be classed 'proven'.

Now having said that, you can make a ton of jing on promotional properties as a shareholder, just get out before the s**t/fan interface.

(Fri May 22 1998 15:32 - ID#20748)
Clinton woes
Secret service must testify.

Today: May 22, 1998 at 12:12:12 PDT

Judge: Secret Service Can Testify


WASHINGTON ( AP ) -- A federal judge today ruled Secret Service
agents can be compelled to testify before a grand jury in the Monica
Lewinsky investigation, rejecting Clinton administration arguments
they had a special privilege, a source familiar with the ruling said.

The decision is the latest in a string of legal victories for Whitewater
prosecutor Kenneth Starr who is trying to overcome several
obstacles to his effort to investigate an alleged presidential affair and

The source familiar with the ruling, speaking on condition of
anonymity, said Judge Norma Hollaway Johnson granted Starr's
motion seeking to compel a small number of Secret Service
employees to testify.

In so doing, the judge rejected the Clinton administration's effort to
argue a novel legal theory that Secret Service agents must have a
special "protective function privilege" to avoid testifying before grand
juries about things they observe while protecting a president.

Starr had argued that no such privilege exists in the law.

The decision leaves the administration with several choices,
including an appeal or a change in legal strategy: the president
could still invoke executive privilege to try to stop the agents from

(Fri May 22 1998 15:33 - ID#401460)

Can you help me with a URL for Michael Kosares USAgold daily? Is this a discussion site also?


(Fri May 22 1998 15:33 - ID#373346)
Agree Frustrated
I just skimmed through the MINE website and went into EDGAR to look at the company's 10 QSB. Basically, this company has only 650,000 long-term debt ( all as of 09/97 I believe ) , $1,178.00 in CASH!, a potential problem with the SEC, and quickly rising share amounts.

The SEC problem is not specific in the 10 QSB. It only says that the SEC is investigating. As for the amount of shares, 100 million issued, 800 Million authorized. Ouch!!

Still, if they have what they think they have and can prove it. We have plenty of time to see more news, do more DD, and see what this company can do before investing.

Signing off. Thanks for your comments Frustrated.

(Fri May 22 1998 15:35 - ID#373346)
Thanks CoolJing. Your insight definately enlightens this situation.

(Fri May 22 1998 15:37 - ID#36156)
HighRise - USAGold -

(Fri May 22 1998 15:39 - ID#36156)
HighRise - USAGold - Sorry, trying again...

(Fri May 22 1998 15:40 - ID#339274)
ABX has given a clear buy signal,I will use as proxy for the XAU
Stop is 80.5.Here we go : )

(Fri May 22 1998 15:42 - ID#256254)
JTF and chas:

What is the Fed doing?

I am making up the following story line.

Alan G. is between THE ROCK and THE HARD PLACE as you note. Rubin is running out of games to play to starve off the impending doom for the usdollar. Soooooo as these udollars have been flying home to roost AL and Rubin have been offering a set of "gold back bonds". These "gold back bonds" are being snapped up by the governments, corporations and individuals that have had it with the usdollar. I believe that the USG has been using this ploy or method with disgruntled usdollar and treasury holders for some time now. The government is getting the gold for these bonds with gold it obtains by buying forward sales with companies like Munk's Barrick. ( That may explain why former president etc. is on his board and why Barrick never has a problem on its froward sales - 3years at over $390+ at the moment if my memory serves me ) .

If I am correct, what does it mean to major players when they can cash in dollars for gold back bonds and or securities for all that soon to be worthless usdollars???? How long will the the game continue once the stock market heads down???? Why own any us financial product when you can't trust the currency of the country that issues those produsts??? Yes, gold backed bonds/securities makes sense, the end is closer

Something this way cometh.

Now to give credit where it is due, I am sure that I have read portions of the above in various forms on this bb in the past. I believe SDRer mentioned Rossa ( sp ) bonds of past .

John Disney__A
(Fri May 22 1998 15:43 - ID#24135)
Forecasting is more fun than TA
For Jeil
I copied 3 of the 5 graphs in your
post. Now I cant find your posting to
see the other 2. Can you give me a
date and time.
You get a different sp500 forecast
depending on whether daily of weekly
data is used .. right ?? or am I
doing something wrong.
I know there is an Excel pack that
enables Fourier tranforms .. have you
tried that.??

For cyclist ... did you not foresee
a multi year gold LOW in July ?? or
was that someone else ?? If you DID,
then I cant handle that PLUS an
inverse h&s on the XAU.
I can see an inverse h&s coming ..
but I can also see a failure coming too
particular since gold is the dog and
the xau is the tail. I think a failure
is at least equally likely with a break
well below 80 a strong possibility.
The RSA stocks were lousy in NY today.

(Fri May 22 1998 15:44 - ID#339274)
Xau has crossed 81.20

Richard Burke
(Fri May 22 1998 15:47 - ID#411318)
Tman: the SEC problem appears to be resolved or resolving with no harm to MINE. See Yahoo news. With respect to some earlier comments, they do not necessarily have to have a major farm in and give up a big piece of the mine in the process. There is European money looking for these opportunities and they could even finance using a gold loan. I plan to follow up with some questons about this with the company.

(Fri May 22 1998 15:47 - ID#57232)
HighRise: I don't see any evidence of a discussion site at USAGold, but I don't know if Michael Kosares has plans for one -- he might -- limited to dialogue with ANOTHER, and Friend of ANOTHER, I would guess.

John Disney__A
(Fri May 22 1998 15:49 - ID#24135)
Gold Backed Bonds ..
Yeah ..
A Goose ..
Yeah ..
Beats the hell out of "backing"
currency .. whatever THAT means.

(Fri May 22 1998 15:54 - ID#339274)
John Disney
February '99 is multiyear low and 2001 -2002 is a generational
cycle low for gold.When both major cycles are aligned ,inflation ,war and shortages are its characteristics,unfortunately.
Hope that this will answer your question.
I concur with Jeil that October will see a low point for the

(Fri May 22 1998 15:58 - ID#298259)
If the Dutch were to announce that they have been selling gold would this temporarily depress the POG...or, would it depend on where the alleged sales were made to other CB's or maybe Japan.

(Fri May 22 1998 15:59 - ID#342315)
Cooljing re 15:31
Boy! That cleared some air. You saved me some digging. Had a feeling floating around about it. Thanx, Charlie

(Fri May 22 1998 16:03 - ID#373403)
Critters before a storm
Just got that sickening feeling that events are converging upon implosion. Trust my gut?

China missiles, campaign finance revelations, Secret Service, Yen devaluation, dollar selloff, ( M3 ) money supply growth, stock market mania, Euro launch, India nuke tests, Indonesia's quickie revolution, Saudi royal family turnover, S. Korea crashing, immobilized Federal Reserve.
These cross currents are raging towards each other.

(Fri May 22 1998 16:06 - ID#233199)

Is there any property you do like that you are willing to mention?

And thanks for the warning.

John Disney__A
(Fri May 22 1998 16:07 - ID#24135)
What did you do??
Did you buy ABX at 20 15/16 ??
because the XAU did something or other
at 81.2 ????
I can see that a break of 80.5 is
a clear signal to run for the hills,
but I cant see why 81.2 on the XAU is
anything much one way or the other.
Maybe one day Ill be able to see

(Fri May 22 1998 16:08 - ID#401460)

Thanks, I do like to follow Another.

I think, after the last two times he appeared here, Gold did respond as he said it would, it just didn't maintain that level.

By the way, the Pres signed the highway bill, this should keep $ flowing into the US economy.


(Fri May 22 1998 16:08 - ID#298259)
Thanks for clarifying that it was not "drill holes" but based on "channel, trench and pit samples" taken from 718 points.

(Fri May 22 1998 16:10 - ID#43460)
themissinglink re gut feelings
Funny, I got the same feeling today. But mine was in regard to the trade imbalance, loss of control of the schools, the yada yada yada of establishment liberals on every subject from a to z, new taxes sales taxes. IMHO we may be seeing the high water mark of neoliberalism and big government. At least I hope so.

(Fri May 22 1998 16:12 - ID#256254)
Date: Fri May 22 1998 16:03
themissinglink ( Critters before a storm ) ID#373403:
Saudi royal family turnover


Do point there is so many disasters ongoing that you can't keep trakc of them. What is the status of the Saudi royal family turnover???

Another Biggie for sure. They ( the soon to rule ) love gold and don't like USG very much at all. Would the new rulers cut production just to hurt the USG????

(Fri May 22 1998 16:16 - ID#237264)

This Golden Eagle Int'l thing looks creepy, if it's a bummer; think of what it will do to Investor sentiment concerning gold and gold mining.
The fiat powers, Ted and Andy will just love writing about it; of that you can be sure.
Has CNBC made any comments on it?

(Fri May 22 1998 16:22 - ID#408170)
Thenissinglink..... Feeling
You got that feeling. I got that feeling.
I had that feeling two years off and on.
It's that "Short the Market and lose your A$$ feeling"
I know it well!!!!!

Something's different this time???.

John B__A
(Fri May 22 1998 16:24 - ID#17470)
Interesting action on the XAU. I would have liked to see it stick above 81.20 - do you feel that indicates anything?

There was excellent news for gold on the Commitments of Traders report at 3:30 today. I would guess that was why the XAU jumped above 81.20. Commercials turned into buyers in the past two weeks and the big funds went strongly bearish ( short ) . The last time this happened ( 3/24 ) we had a great run in gold stocks.

(Fri May 22 1998 16:25 - ID#373403)
I have no new information, it just seems big and close.

I have another question. Do all countries buy oil from a global market at a generic price or do first tier consumers like The United States buy direct from the lowest cost producers like Saudi's? I ask because if it the latter where the United States gets first dibs on the cheapest producers then the Saudis could hurt us by contracting to sell to someone else forcing us to buy from higher cost producers.

(Fri May 22 1998 16:29 - ID#252197)
I think the PM's will be prone to high volatility

for the next several weeks to months ( just a feeling ) .

High rolling speculators need to employ extreme

caution over the near term.

Off the subject a bit but still pertinent, I talked

with my brother last weekend and he said he knows

a fellow who has over 60 lbs of gold which he adds

to regularly. He told me that the fellow had been

buying a lot of palladium coins lately ( I didn't

think there was such a thing ) . This fellow was

telling my brother "The sky is the limit for

palladium." How quickly the sky falls.

I am probably wrong but I would suggest that PM

investing be reduced to the level of "hobby" for

the near-term.

With my past record of PM investing this

recommendation could also be used as a contra


Hoping you the best of luck!

(Fri May 22 1998 16:33 - ID#339274)
John Disney
81.20 was the crossover point in the hourly and 30mins chart.
80.5 would be the fourth downspike with negative implications
to a further downsweep.
Right now we have an inverted head and shoulder formation
in the hourly and the five mins charts coupled with the
alignment of two cycles and a friendly seasonal cycle next week.
I went fully invested at the close.Have a good day.

(Fri May 22 1998 16:34 - ID#26793)
Dow/Gold Ratio = 30.42 The 50 day moving average is 29.72. A year ago the ratio was 21.18

(Fri May 22 1998 16:36 - ID#233199)
RE: James 16:29

How many ounces "troy" is 60 lbs of Gold?

(Fri May 22 1998 16:37 - ID#26793)
XAU/Spot Ratio = .270 A year ago the ratio was .296. The ratio is below the 50 day moving average of .272 and the 200 day M/A of .273 but is still above the 100 day M/A of .260

(Fri May 22 1998 16:37 - ID#426220)
golden eagle INTL UP 144% IN ONE DAY

HEY, that's better than a poke in the eye with sharp stick -
closing a $0.33/share

(Fri May 22 1998 16:41 - ID#26793)
Gold/Silver Ratio = 56.96 A year ago the ratio was 73.39

(Fri May 22 1998 16:43 - ID#307271)
MoReGoLd (@MINE:OTCBB & Analyst Howard Ruff )
Does anyone know if this is 'the' Howard Ruff of the once popular "RUFF TIMES" publications circa the late 70's and early 80's ? That Howard Ruff I think was involved in touting wholesale dry food storage for the big depression predicted in the eighties that never manifested. Also, if you recall, their was considerable hoarding of precious metals and coins. Many people still have coins with price tags that are above today's market. But of course that Howard was right about the direction of gold bullion. Perhaps this is a different Howard Ruff. Does anyone know ?

(Fri May 22 1998 16:46 - ID#339274)
John B
Take the hourly chart of XAU and you will see the down trend line has been broken 81.20.Ironic it was when the XAU attempted 3 times to cross
that barrier.However it is prudent to put a stop loss in.

(Fri May 22 1998 16:48 - ID#194311)
paper inflation?
Philippines launches largest legal tender note

MANILA, May 22 ( AFP ) - The Philippines launched Friday what it
described as the world's largest legal tender banknote -- a
100,000-peso ( 2,583-dollar ) note the size of a legal pad.
The central bank will issue just 1,000 of the 8.5 by 14 inch
( 21.56 by 35.56-centimeter ) notes to commemorate the centennial of
the declaration of independence from Spanish colonial rule, to be
celebrated on June 12.
"I hope that no one mistakes this for inflation," President
Fidel Ramos joked at a presidential palace ceremony to launch the
"I must admit that we took the record book and collector
interest into account in designing this banknote. But it was really
and mainly to prevent people from spending it by mistake," he
The notes, printed in Germany, will be offered for entry in the
Guinness Book of World Records, the Philippine Centennial Commission
said in a statement.
The notes feature charcoal drawings of two significant events in
Philippine history.
One side has a group of Filipino rebels tearing up documents
identifying them as vassals of Spain to signal the launch of the war
for independence.
The other side has the leaders of the revolt unfurling the
Philippine flag for the first time on the balcony of a house near

(Fri May 22 1998 16:48 - ID#244446)
Hear Gary North on Radio explain the global computer crash
Noted Y2k expert Gary North will be Art's guest on Mon/Tues 5/25

Y2k means: an ever-darkening cloud of "transaction settlement risk" will shadow ALL financial instruments--save only gold and silver in your
possession. From T-Bills to passbook savings--all will be in doubt.
Are my accounts safe? Are they being correctly credited? Can I get my
money? Will the government block access to my funds? Will my bank fail?
The logic of such questions leads in only one direction--as it has
throughout history.

(Fri May 22 1998 16:56 - ID#194311)
Japanese banks staring into the Asian abyss...
Japan's top banks make colossal losses after write offs

TOKYO, May 22 ( AFP ) - Top Japanese banks unveiled colossal
losses on Friday after much-needed bad loan write offs, but promised
a quick return to profits.
Their announcements showed a new-found urgency in tackling the
suffocating bad debt problem which ballooned from careless lending
during the speculative economic bubble in the late 1980s.
Many Japanese banks have struggling with a mountain of soured
loans incurred during Japan's era of real estate speculation in the
late 1980s.
The inability of struggling Asian nations to pay interest on
billions of dollars they have borrowed from Japanese banks has
aggravated the crisis in Japan's financial system.
Japan's leading banks had been forced to write off bad loans
before the government introduced tougher standards for monitoring
bank balance sheets on April 1.
"They made some progress in tackling bad loans," Tomotaka Oshio,
analyst at Kokusai Securities Co. Ltd. said. "But they are not yet
well prepared for write offs of their exposure to Indonesia and
other Asian countries."
The giant Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi Ltd., still clinging to its
position as the world's largest bank, said it wrote off a record
1,430 billion yen ( 10.8 billion dollars ) in bad loans in the year to
Tokyo-Mitsubishi took an 834.9-billion-yen pre-tax loss,
reversing a 181.9-billion-yen profit the year before, and posted a
524.4-billion-yen net loss, reversing a 40.7-billion-yen net
profit. Tokyo-Mitsubishi's outstanding bad loans, calculated under
international standards, were still worth a staggering 2,250.2
billion yen at the end of March.
Fuji Bank Ltd., one of Japan's leading banks, suffered a
517.3-billion-yen pre-tax loss, against a 75.4-billion profit the
year before.
It said bad loan write offs during the year came to 980.7
billion yen.
Sanwa Bank Ltd., another major commercial bank which has
expanded into investment banking, announced a 370.0-billion-yen
pre-tax loss, reversing the previous year's 56.3 billion yen
Over the year Sanwa wrote off 950.3 billion yen in bad loans.
For Dai-Ichi Kangyo Bank Ltd., one of the largest banks in fund
volume, the past year improved the balance sheet.
The bank took a 96.9 billion yen pre-tax loss, a recovery from
the previous year's 313.1 billion yen loss.
It posted a net loss of 72 billion yen, up from a 177.3 billion
yen loss.
The bank wrote off 752.8 billion yen in bad loans, but is still burdened with 1,471.4 billion yen in such loans.
DKB has outstanding loans to Asia of 1.6 trillion yen, including
190 billion yen to Indonesia, a bank official said.
"We are hoping the Indonesia situation will be stabilised as
early as possible, but we will have to monitor the development there
for the time being," a DKB official said.
Tokai Bank Ltd., based in the central Japanese city of Nagoya,
reported a group pre-tax loss of 51.0 billion yen after a 378.2
billion yen bad loan write-off.
Asahi Bank Ltd., one of the smaller banks among the top nine,
reported a group pre-tax profit of 188.6 billion yen, reversing a 24
billion yen profit in the previous year.
It wrote off bad loans worth 485.3 billion yen.

(Fri May 22 1998 16:59 - ID#26793)
@John Disney
Your comment on the importance of an XAU reading of 81.20 sparked me to look at the information in my database of XAU readings, now at 1730 records well spread across 13 years. I found 24 occasions when the XAU was 81.XX. Here is the interesting part. The price of gold ranged from $433.70 ( 10/3/86 ) to $299.10 ( 5/20/98 ) You can see that the XAU was a screaming buy on 10/3/86 and is less so today.

The value of the XAU/Spot ratio that I post daily is meant to demonstrate that point.

(Fri May 22 1998 17:02 - ID#343259)
For what it is worth I like Mar-West ( msr-Vancouver ) , on to a good looking property in Guatemala, Cerro Blanco, great trench values and current drilling confirms gold at depth, but they only have assays for 2 holes so it is very early in the progression of things. They also are doing confirmation drilling in Honduras at San Martin, 600 to 800k ounces, they own 80%, low grade but low strip; worth you looking into. The company is hypeless, credible and has some working cash. site In the same group is Balaclava ( bil-Vancouver ) , El Corazon project in Ecuador, great trench assays, no drilling yet; good luck!

(Fri May 22 1998 17:05 - ID#176253)
What is the "clear buy signal" that you see in ABX?

(Fri May 22 1998 17:13 - ID#254269)
Japanese Bank Loan Write-offs.
kiwi; if my math is correct, those six banks wrote off 4,680 Billion Yen
or approximately $33 Billion US Dollars. That's what they have admitted to, to date.

(Fri May 22 1998 17:14 - ID#339274)
ABX took out convincingly the hourly downtrend line.
It traded within the previous day range and closed at the high end.
At last it countertrended the S&P during the day,while it is
part of the S&P 500.

(Fri May 22 1998 17:17 - ID#252391)
These charts suggest that gold stocks are at an important juncture. They
have declined from a healthy rally off a base. The XAU has come down from
the 90's and in the last week has painted itself into a trading range
with 82.50 at the high and 80.50 at the bottom. A break of the 80.50
level would result in a cascade into the high or mid 70's with support
where the red line or moving average is. Given the fact that the XAU is
below that red line moving average, below its 200 day moving average with
all moving averages going down, this support point at 81 on the XAU is
viewed by myself as very fragile.

The further erosion of Platinum today, the down in silver, the
inability of gold to rally two days in a row, the strong bonds and no
counter buying developing in the Gold stocks as the DOW falls, all lead
me to the conclusion that the weight of the evidence is on a continuation
of the downward move in the metals and the metal mining stocks.

I am concerned that a weak Tuesday could see Gold down to 296,
silver pulling out $5, copper breaking to new lows and on and on. There
seems every good fundlemental reason to own gold silver and mining
shares, but the technicals at this point are clear. We are going lower,
maybe sharply lower, probably soon. Something on the fundlemental could
happen over the weekend to jump the metals - certainly there are enough

Watch 82.50. If the XAU can close above 82.50 I'll reverse my opinion to
slightly bullish from bearish. Right now, however, dispite my
fundlemental view the metals are great values the sellers outweight the

5 minute chart of XAU ( last 5 trading days )$XAU.X&time_period=5-minute%20Bars&bars=420?wstype=480%20x%20360%20GIF&chart_type=Close%20Only&colors=Black%25%252C%20Green%20on%20Transparent&vol=Volume&study=Exponential%20moving%20average&ma_period=50&key=

Daily Chart ( Friday's activity not plotted )$XAU.X&time_period=Daily&bars=100?wstype=480%20x%20360%20GIF&chart_type=Close%20Only&colors=Black%25%252C%20Green%20on%20Transparent&vol=Volume&study=Exponential%20moving%20average&ma_period=50&key=

(Fri May 22 1998 17:19 - ID#342273)
@ Donald re: XAU
Donald, isn't the XAU calculated by dividing the sum of the prices of a basket of stocks by the POG? I used to have the URL for that but now it's out of pocket so to speak.

(Fri May 22 1998 17:27 - ID#257136)
Gianni Dioro (or, Johnny Gold). Where pray tell is Mena, AK?-Selby.
Selby: A liberal never attempts to teach a youngun anything not P.C. I live in Mena, AR ( SeeJohnny? ) and we have our share of libs. They are as conforming as are libs elsewhere.
Guns have not been P.C. to the liberal establishment since before 1968 when the establishment suckerd the NRA into backing the vaunted GAC ( Gun Control Act ) of 1968. I have since rejoined NRA mainly 'cause I know WE are the only means of saving not only the 2nd amendment, but very possibly the entire Nation.
As mozel has so adequately proven ( to me ) our Constituion has been suspended for decades.
It's my personal opinion we must teach chilluns to use firearms.
My son began his learning at age six. A local organized Rifle Club for BOYS. The men were not allowed to shoot, only to instruct.
The kids in the Jobro reference were both from the same kind of family as ol' b.j.Klinton: a singularly dysfunctional , loose female headed group. An amorphous group at that.
Any wonder he is as he is??
I digress. Adios!!

(Fri May 22 1998 17:30 - ID#194311)
avalon....i'm amazed how anyone
could trust in banks at all.

Just in that report alone the are another 4 trillion yen outstanding bad debt to be written off BEFORE the current round of financial troubles in Asia are considered.
I think Jap banks have just managed to take on the burden of another bursting bubble after their own one....only a matter of time before this comes back to give Yankee bankers heartburn.
Slow motion domino toppling...but where does the buck stop...BIS

and then the gold will begin to fly.

(Fri May 22 1998 17:35 - ID#176253)
Thanks for explaining your reading of ABX. But the signals to which you refer are very short term signals. Do you have any longer term indications concerning ABX?

(Fri May 22 1998 17:35 - ID#252391)
XAU = 81.04
With the big stock market participants moving to stocks with liquidity and the number of stocks going up declining, I'll go out on a limb and suggest a weak week ahead for the stock market and further erosion in the XAU in tandem.


The CYCLIST could be right and today was the end of the down move and we are headed higher. WATCH 82.75 and 80.50 XAU.

(Fri May 22 1998 17:38 - ID#286224)
@Jims Thank you ...but...

Thank you again for your usefull anlalysis. Contributions like yours make Kitco worthwhilwe.

But... those long URL's wreck the margins for many so that Kitco becomes almost unreadable. If you put a space after the " http://" before you post it will save a lot of trouble.

Yes, others will have to "cut and paste", but that's not so hard compared to how unreadable Kitco becomes for many of us.

For other users: If you select and "copy all" you can paste to WordPad or some other wordprocessor but with out the easy to recognize colours.

Thanks again Jims for your posts.

Mr. Mick
(Fri May 22 1998 17:40 - ID#345321)
gagnrad - you ain't seen nothin' yet..........
this is just the beginning. Hold onto your butt, cuz the ride is going to be fiersome. ( spelled fearsome??? )

(Fri May 22 1998 17:57 - ID#26793)
@Crunch; here are the specs on the XAU

(Fri May 22 1998 18:06 - ID#233199)
FYI ( but how big are the tons (tonnes?) the CB's sell?

( 15.43236 grains = 1 gram )

-------------------------- ---------------------------

27 11/32 grains = 1 dram 24 grains = 1 pennyweight
16 drams = 1 ounce ( av ) 20 pennyweights = 1 ounce ( tr )
16 ounces = 1 pound ( av ) 12 ounces = 1 pound ( tr )

1 lb ( av ) = 7000 grains ( exact ) 1 lb ( tr ) = 5760 grains ( exact )

1 lb ( av ) = 453.59 gm 1 lb ( tr ) = 373.24 gm

Therefore the troy pound is about 20% lighter in weight than the pound
avoirdupois .

(Fri May 22 1998 18:07 - ID#341189)
re your data base with the XAU at this level - that's the spirit!

(Fri May 22 1998 18:09 - ID#431116)
SWP1..Just curious about
those long URLs you mentioned. What sort of browser etc do you have.Nothing seems to happen to my screen with any of the URLs posted.

(Fri May 22 1998 18:09 - ID#258142)
Possible Dutch Gold sale
I do not have reliable confirmation on this matter yet, but let us read my post ( sorry for self-quote ) of Mar 18 1998 17:15 - quote of Dutch Ministry of Finance "about idea of selling of some part of our gold reserve it is not clear now the exact size of external reserves that will be requested, rate exchange relations with third countries After taking decision what EU countries will participate, during this year some operational decisions should take place At present time relative information, received from other members is subject of analysis." - and then my quote - "We know first results today - Belgium." I could spell it out in capital letters, but much people here can not tolerate any negative information about Gold - F* for example, and many, many more. But the truth is more important, yes?

(Fri May 22 1998 18:12 - ID#57232)
Two-tier gold system again? Could be.
A. Goose: Your premise of US gold-backed bonds is a likely scenario, because that would get the customer to buy the US bonds, regardless of the status of the dollar flood. That certainly would be a way to avoid a dollar glut and a worsening market bubble -- for a time, anyway. Something like this has happened at least once in the history of the United States, just before gold started to rise.

If you are right, it would be nice to know how many dollars per ounce the gold is worth. Could be alot more than $300/oz. Wonder what the premium was before there were any cuntomers.

You can delay the pain, but you cannot prevent it. Sooner or later, that old 'fiat' currency gets devalued. No matter what you do you can't get away from the moment of truth when you must accept the fact that gold is worth alot more than you say it is. Good thing there is noone out there who can mass produce gold, or we'd really be in trouble.

(Fri May 22 1998 18:16 - ID#252391)
Thanks for the posting tip SWPI
I'll remeber that. Don't want to make things any more difficult - I have my own computer limitations so I know what trouble can be.

Have a good weekend and prepare to buy XAU in the 70's

(Fri May 22 1998 18:20 - ID#28861)
Silver-"people are buying again"

the quoted analyst expects the price to go back to 5.40 soon

(Fri May 22 1998 18:21 - ID#286230)
I see we agree. A liberal would never alow his 6 year old to have a rifle, wear fatigues or teach a 12 year old how to drive.

(Fri May 22 1998 18:22 - ID#252127)

One tonne has 1000 kilos or 1,000,000 grams and one ounce troy has 31.103~ grams

For instance, 200 tonne have:

200 x 1,000,000/31.103=6,430,247.9~ troy ounces

For me it's easier to remeber one million and 31.103~, than 32,151.4~ troy ounces per tonne.

(Fri May 22 1998 18:27 - ID#411149)
TA and the gold price
I subscribe to three TA timing services and they are all BULLISH
on gold one had been named in several publications, Forbes, Barrons for accuracy timing the gold market. I ain't gona give no names but for
my on work. Here arecomments from Cousin Bill Murphy of Venersos
Associates from over @ SI

To: Bill Murphy ( 0 )
From: Ray DeMoss
Thursday, May 21 1998 1:16PM ET
Reply # of 25

Hey cousin Bill Murphy,
I married a Murphy! Good folks!

Would you mind commenting on the following from the Kitco site?

Date: Thu May 21 1998 11:22
Straddler ( NJ, All Re: Confusion about Veneroso comments )
Copyright c 1998 Straddler/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Preacher, APH, EB and other technical analysts: Could you comment
on this. Thanks!

I read the Veneroso report and am a little confused at his technicals and
what his ultimate conclusion is. On the one hand he advocates a strong
up move coming with the quiet market and bearish tone.

However, in the next few sentences, he mentions the six month long
base and a huge pennant formation. I looked at the Monthly, Weekly,
and Daily Gold charts again. The only pennant formation I see is an
upward skewed pennant that has been building from a huge down move.
In any technical education/analysis I've ever seen or heard, this is
actually a very bearish formation. I'm confused because he obviously
knows his stuff but seems to be saying two different things.

The pennant itself may have more room to the upside based on Monthly
and Daily indicators which show an upmove coming. We will probably
get another upswing to complete the pennant ( shorter term ) . But if it is
a pennant as he says, this usually indicates a strong move coming in the
opposite direction ( downward ) longer term. Any comments??

To: Ray DeMoss ( 23 )
From: Bill Murphy
Thursday, May 21 1998 5:50PM ET
Reply # of 25

Hi Ray,
Our strength is trying to figure out what is really going on in the gold
world. Technical analysis is in the eye of the beholder. We do not think
there are many others in the world that understand the gold market as
well as we do ( we certainly make a supreme effort in that regard ) .
Anybody who has read a technical analysis book can make and is entitled
to their opinion. Many may view any given set of techncial indicators
I see this formation as a coil, pennant, or whatever, that is likely to
produce a big move. I think technical analysis is very valuable and
believe strongly in its value. For me, this simple chart just gives added
fuel to our fundamental analysis that is so bullish.
How is that for a technically gobbly gook answer?


Bill Murphy

To: Bill Murphy ( 24 )
From: Ray DeMoss
Thursday, May 21 1998 10:03PM ET
Reply # of 25

Well Bill,
I have been lookin out the winder [window] for you RED necks
and have been seein the same thing as you'll at Veneroso.
Me and my good friend Jim Blanchard been seein the samething
out the winder. Mine overlooks the pasture and hissin overlooks
the Misisipi River atop that bank bldg. But We sees the same thing
as you BILL.


Ray DeMoss


(Fri May 22 1998 18:31 - ID#339274)
In my previous post the timeline between the present and
June 25 is only for trading highly liquid stocks.
From July 30 till the end of September second tier stocks
can one be positioned in.

(Fri May 22 1998 18:37 - ID#153102)
@What Is A Gold Bond ?
Does the buyer/lender receive gold when the bond is due ?
What is the buyer/lender lending ? Paper ? That's a good deal, I think. To lend paper and receive gold someday.

Or does the buyer/lender receive gold if the borrower defaults on payment of interest ?

Questions, questions, questions; but nothing but pablum for answers.

Nobody has ever audited the Federal Reserve System that I know of.
Nobody has ever audited the Treasury Department that I know of.
Nobody has ever audited IMF or World Bank that I know of.

Transparency is for poor people.

The reason we know the Japanese are not poor just quite yet is that nobody has ever audited the Bank of Japan that I know of.

(Fri May 22 1998 18:38 - ID#290118)
Y2K and Communications
I gave a copy of the Yardeni testimony to an independent communications engineering & management consultant - based here and working internationally for various countries and firms. She engineers communications systems and contracts out the work. She is in a position to have a darn good feel for what Y2K entails.
Her response when I asked her what she thought of Y2K...
That reiterates and validates what many of you have expressed here...
We are gonna be in deep doo doo!

(Fri May 22 1998 18:41 - ID#252197)
Thanks for the info. I called my brother to find

out if he meant lbs in gold or lbs in feathers. He

didn't know. That works out to about 875 oz troy.

That's a lot of gold, huh.

(Fri May 22 1998 18:41 - ID#386279)
G'morning all.
You LEAST you guys could have done last night was to keep the POG over 300!! Got the 3-day weekend jitters?? Anyway, it is good to sit here with my morning cup of java and read your XAU-will XAU-won't//DOW-will DOW-won't debate. I nominate this as the best post of the morn ( day ) . G'day RB.

Date: Fri May 22 1998 16:22
RB__A ( Thenissinglink..... Feeling ) ID#408170:
You got that feeling. I got that feeling.
I had that feeling two years off and on.
It's that "Short the Market and lose your A$$ feeling"
I know it well!!!!!

Something's different this time???.

Now on an important note. Our good Kiwi mate, Aurator ( Auracious ) is unable to get on this chat ( err.. sorry Bart ) ...this precious metal discussion group. He has access to K-2 ( not the mountain--but the coins,bars etc. group ) . He has tried clearing his cache and has assured me that the electricity is on on in Auckland. He uses a Mac--not the kind you eat.CAN ANY OF YOU 'PUTER XPERTS OUT THERE OFFER SOME SOLUTIONS?? I will relay them. Cheers, N.

(Fri May 22 1998 18:42 - ID#153102)
Six year olds make the very best driving instructors simply because they are too young to have learned any bad habits.

(Fri May 22 1998 18:49 - ID#287277)
Allen--Sorry...running in place today!
Allen, ref: SDRer you posted numbers earlier which 'told a secret'. I'm so unfocused right now! --Allen--I bet! I should be so unfocused {:- ) )

The secret is to look at the translations of gold ( gains/losses ) v. the actual currency changes--the DEM translates with commendable Teutonic orderliness; the yen DOESNT...nor does the fact, the Swissie and the Yen seem more in sync! What a clever way to hide the machinations! But then theyre clever guys...

Monkee Person
(Fri May 22 1998 18:51 - ID#288105)
Reported in Hong Kong...
Gold consumption tumbles by half

WORLD gold consumption has been slashed by more than half as a result of the Asian economic turmoil.

According to the World Gold Council, the economic turmoil has caused an unprecedented increase in gold supply in the first three months of the year.

It said the period saw large-scale sales of gold back to the market, particularly from countries faced with a dramatic decline in the value of their currency.

The report by the council said the consumption of gold declined 55 per cent to 342.1 tonnes during the first quarter of 1998.

The gold collection campaign sponsored by the South Korean government, together with net sales from the private sector in Indonesia, brought a decline of 70 per cent to 177.8 tonnes and were the main reasons for the increase in the supply, according to the report.

"It was net sales back to the market in just two countries that did the damage to the demand statistics during the first quarter," said George Milling-Stanley, manager of Gold Market Analysis. "There was nothing intrinsically wrong with the underlying trend in gold demand, with good growth being recorded throughout the rest of the world. Gold gave a powerful demonstration of its traditional role as a store of value and an asset of last resort, and that lesson has not been lost on the people from some countries."

South Koreans responded to the government's "Save the Nation" campaign with sales amounting to some 250 tonnes of gold to help the country repay its debt. In Indonesia, gold came to the rescue of citizens who sold back to the market, taking advantage of the fact gold price in local currency had almost doubled.

"While there were no signs of any significant distress sales, consumers adopted a more cautious `wait and see' attitude," according to the council.

First quarter demand fell 5 per cent to 52.3 tonnes on the mainland, dipped 32 per cent to 28 tonnes in Taiwan and 11 per cent to 12 tonnes in Hong Kong.

Demand paused on the mainland in anticipation of a new gold pricing structure, the council said, adding an unusually wet season in Taipei and an economic downturn in Hong Kong dampened demand.

(Fri May 22 1998 18:52 - ID#252127)
I know we have some Aurizon fans around K1

Insider trading Ian.S.Walton bought 110,000 shares at 52-60 cents ea., to hold 408,900 shares. Mary Walton bought 20,000 shares at 54-55 cents ea., to hold 120,900 shares. This from The Nornerminer of May 18-24.

(Fri May 22 1998 18:54 - ID#287277)
In THEIR own Words--in 1991 they voted for gold as a MONETARY RESERVE
European Commission--Agenda 2000
B. Criteria for Membership
2. Economic Criteria

Foreign currency reserves increased considerably since the introduction of the currency board. The basis was formed by THE RESTITUTION OF HISTORICAL GOLD RESERVES BY WESTERN CENTRAL BANKS IN 1991. At present levels, however, the reserves cover less than three months of imports.

All else is full of sound and fury...etc., etc., etc....


(Fri May 22 1998 18:54 - ID#288295)
Nick @ C

I think Donald had a similar problem, which turned out to be a rotten cookie. If he cleans ( deletes ) all his cookie files and comes in the front door ( through Kitco ) ( rather than a using hyperlink ) this might be a possible solution.

(Fri May 22 1998 18:58 - ID#287277)
Allen--there is a typo (surprise, surprise) in the dates of the
numbers posted. It is April, 1998 NOT 1992 {:- ( (
One is supposed to improve with practice ( ? ) !!
bbl ( for real this time ) Have a GREAT weekend all {:- )

Monkee Person
(Fri May 22 1998 19:05 - ID#288105)
Eeeeeeasing it onto us...
There goes my U.S. social security pension.

Heard over syndicated radio the U.S. Congress is considering raising social security age to 70. Which means, according to actuarial tables, that most of us male people will never see it. Essentially, it's gone.

Announcer also indicated the Congress is studying the possibility of investing S.S. funds in the U.S. stock market.

And I say,...


What they're saying is WE ARE going to raise the pension age to 70, and WE WILL find a way to fuel the stock market with moneys whose OFFICIAL source is the Social Security System.

(Fri May 22 1998 19:12 - ID#286230)
Great pilots too.

(Fri May 22 1998 19:12 - ID#225273)
Kitco 2

Hepcat is still tearing it up on K-2. He's venting on Vronsky and Farfel today.

Under the moniker of Observer, he writes: "Soon to be posted ( even on Kitco 1, YES! ) several of Vronsky's past messages that will look quite stupid in today's circumstances. Participants and lurkers will have the opportunity to get to know him at a glance!!!"

His diatribes are good for a laugh.

The Preacher

(Fri May 22 1998 19:13 - ID#258142)
SDRer__A, 18:54
Thats right, but 11 EMU members have population little bit more then USA, and twice as much Gold, as in Fort Knox

(Fri May 22 1998 19:16 - ID#45173)
@Monkee Person World Gold consuption down by 1/2? Not quite
Today's WSJ reports 270 tons sales by Asia Q1 1998, but huge increases in purchases in West, especially Europe and the USA, to snap it up.

(Fri May 22 1998 19:17 - ID#22956)
don't want to steal anyone's thunder.....but.....
RB mailed me that he was seeing a nice triangle in spoos. I have been watching it too and it's shape is quite clear now. Anyone want to venture a directional guess. ( although I know what most of you think will happen ) ........ ( like a bungee jumper with a faulty bungee ) ............... ( a bung w/ no geeeeee ) ......... ( splat ) ...

but will most likely be a 'correction' if direction is down.......don't fight it ;- ) the weekend....yahoooooo!

eerFestThenBluesfestw/NevilleBros......ohmy ( ! )

(Fri May 22 1998 19:20 - ID#412286)
Raisinng the SS Age
If they raise it to 70 they must do it while the market is up.Putting it in the stk mkt makes sense as the bull mkt is what has provided the revenues. Anyway just declare a disability at 62 and you can collect anyway!! Lawyers know!! I think congressional pensions should become payable at 80 and Congressman should be forebidden from taking private donations or employment to avoid conflict of interest.

(Fri May 22 1998 19:22 - ID#45173)
Y2K and Gold
Safe to say after this, my third trip to the Wash DC area in as many weeks, that Y2K is no joke. Question is, how will the impact of Y2K effect the price of gold? Is it safe to assume the value of gold will rise? If the worst happens, toilet paper, heat, and water will be worth more than gold. What is the Y2K scenario that makes gold worth more in yr 2000 dollars than it's worth today?

(Fri May 22 1998 19:27 - ID#412286)
Raisin SS age
Myself and others I have spoken with see an opportunity if they raise the SS age as everyone IS ENTITLED if they are disabled. Many people in their sixties will soon become disabled if they raise the age. BTW disability is very flexible/ if you saw some people who are "disabled" veterans you know there will be a big business in SS disability claims. THEY CANT RAISE THE AGE ON DISABILITY. FEAR NOT MY FRIENDS is this a GREAT LEGAL SYSTEM OR WHAT!! @ Excited at the opportunity to help people!

(Fri May 22 1998 19:37 - ID#386279)
From our deaf, blind and dumb mate(Auracious)

The following are new Windows messages that are under
consideration for the planned Windows 2000:

1.Smash forehead on keyboard to continue.

2.Enter any 11-digit prime number to continue.

3.Press any key to continue or any other key to quit.

4.Press any key except... no, No, NO, NOT THAT ONE!

5.Press Ctrl-Alt-Del now for IQ test.

6.Close your eyes and press escape three times.

7.Bad command or file name! Go stand in the corner.

8.This will end your Windows session. Do you want to play another

9.Windows message: "Error saving file! Format drive now? ( Y/Y ) "

10.This is a message from God Gates: "Rebooting the world. Please log

11.To "shut down" your system, type "WIN."

12.BREAKFAST.SYS halted... Cereal port not responding.

13.COFFEE.SYS missing... Insert cup in cup holder and press any key.

14.CONGRESS.SYS corrupted... Re-boot Washington D.C? ( Y/N )

15.File not found. Should I fake it? ( Y/N )

16.Bad or missing mouse. Spank the cat? ( Y/N )

17.Runtime Error 6D at 417A:32CF: Incompetent User.

18.Error reading FAT record: Try the SKINNY one? ( Y/N )

19.WinErr 16547: LPT1 not found. Use backup. ( PENCIL & PAPER.SYS )

20.User Error: Replace user.

21.Windows VirusScan 1.0 - "Windows found: Remove it? ( Y/N ) "

22.Welcome to Microsoft's World - Your Mortgage is Past Due...

23.If you are an artist, you should know that Bill Gates owns you and
all your future creations. Doesn't it feel nice to have security?

24.Your hard drive has been scanned and all stolen software titles
have been deleted. The police are on the way.


BTW: If speed scares you, try Windows...

(Fri May 22 1998 19:37 - ID#411112)
EJ,sorry brother but what will you use to buy tolet paper, water,etc. if what has been discussed at
G8 is true,and that is what to do the next time there is a major run on banks....limit the amount one can pull out at one time......just something to think about....personally let me say as a dealer I have a strong feeling that when folks wake up to this there will be no gold to be had,I don't care what price comex is the cash market is the real world there is a lot of hoarding going on,good product is getting harder to get in large quantities ( numismatics )

(Fri May 22 1998 19:43 - ID#386279)
Addendum to Auracious' post
He uses a Mac and HE AIN'T HERE!!

(Fri May 22 1998 19:46 - ID#317193)
My golf game was so bad it makes gold look good today. GRRRRRR!!!!


(Fri May 22 1998 19:48 - ID#255151)

Even if the U.S. is adequately prepared, Japan, Europe, and Latin America will be financially leveled by Y2K. This alone would wreak havoc on U.S. Bonds and the Dollar.

Bully Beef
(Fri May 22 1998 19:48 - ID#259282)

(Fri May 22 1998 19:53 - ID#252391)
Social Security and S&Ps
First, I think I heard that the new 70 year commencement of SS Benefits would apply to people born in 1969 or later.
Second, if the SS systme is going to put money into stocks where is it going to get the money. Currently that dough goes into the general fund, doesn't it. So where do we get the money to buy stocks for the SS Fund?

Third, I notice the triangulation of the S&Ps but I construe it as bearish for gold stocks. If the S&Ps and the broader market get into a fall everything is going to be sold - that's what's already been happening. Any accelertion will get gold stocks sold off as well. Talk about high PEs, the gold stocks' are in the stratosphere.

Down with the rest of the market will go the golds ( down with the general market are going the golds ) then a bottom.

(Fri May 22 1998 19:59 - ID#230376)
@ Preacher and Nick ....

Preacher : need your opinion on SWC, when you have time.

Nick@C :g'day mate ! Would appreciate auracious' Email address to cheer 'em up like .

eddie is me

(Fri May 22 1998 20:03 - ID#210114)
Straddling 100 MA
POG now stradling the 100 MA. Still expecting to see a break downwards, especially if the rumours of Dutch CB selling are true.

Key still the ECB announcement.

Having said all that, this break down will be the bottom IMVHO. Probably a great buying opportunity. I'll be buying again if we get to $US275 - 280.

Double bottom will be formed and at those prices most mines will be unprofitable.

Happy trails my friends..........

(Fri May 22 1998 20:13 - ID#290118)
I use a MAC : a PPC 9600 with System 8.1 and Netscape Communicator 4.0.5
First thing I did when setting up Communicator was to tell it to automatically REFUSE ALL COOKIES - I don't trust 'em. I turned that back on for a short bit ( with it set to ask me if I want to accept a cookie ) . Kitco server always wants to send me one. Until I know what they are doing I don't accept any. I don't want my life relayed around the net by my computer - I do enough of that by myself.
Otherwise - I'll be glad to help any Mac user.
Auracious ought to get K1 if he gets K2.
Odd! Good idea to blame those cookies!
I'm at

(Fri May 22 1998 20:14 - ID#27341)
Well done, that thinking looks good to me.

Bully Beef
(Fri May 22 1998 20:22 - ID#259282)
I can't get the buttons to click to go to the past posts.
Sometimes no problem but it pisses me off. We are using explorer now. I think we'll go back to using Netscape. Uh ..I found kitco 2 and read a post by supposedly ANOTHER. It's the best laugh I've had in weeks. It starts off as ANOTHER would and then goes into the worst French accent I ever saw. Check it out.

(Fri May 22 1998 20:24 - ID#34857)
NICK@C - Aurator
The only differences between K1 and K2 are the K1 password/handle cookie and the fact that K2 doesn't use frames. Not knowing what symptoms Aurator's getting makes it difficult to troubleshoot it for him. Can you get a description of the problems for us?


(Fri May 22 1998 20:25 - ID#228262)
How many troy ozs in 60 lbs of gold.

To: SWP1, May 22, 1998, 16:36: There are 875 troy ozs in 60 lbs ( avoir ) of gold. !lba = 7000grains and there are 480 grains in a troy oz.

(Fri May 22 1998 20:27 - ID#342376)
Can someone post the link for Kitco 2?
I didn't know there was one.

(Fri May 22 1998 20:35 - ID#34857)
crazytimes - K2

(Fri May 22 1998 20:35 - ID#252391)
Spock think you've got it
Spock, I think you've got it - or at least you agree with my acessments. Gold sales before the Euro / Gold decision would seem part of a picture that would lead to the bottom of this stuff. I think gold's decline will come to pass along with a massive move into the dollar denominated debt securites has a haven. Once that has occurred there won't be any place left to go, except gold. At some point I agree every reason that has been mentioed here for gold to rise including Y2K fears will be bullish but at present any move above $300.10 gets hit by sellers. A large equity decline prompted by such a thing as Russian instability will bring everything down in its wake, setting up the real buying opportunity.

I'll be keeping a close watch on XAU 82.50 and 86.00 as an indication we've already seen all the correction we are going to have, and 72 as a downside target.

How does we get Kitco 2???

Tantalus Rex
(Fri May 22 1998 20:37 - ID#295111)

(Fri May 22 1998 20:38 - ID#411112)
Squirrel;just because you paranoiac that does not mean they are not watching :)


(Fri May 22 1998 20:44 - ID#210114)
Kitco 2
It appears Kitco 2 has more colourful entries thatn Kitco 1. ANOTHER is also present. Will stay here for the time being. Haven't got enought time to indulge in both.

jims etc, thanx for your comments.

(Fri May 22 1998 20:49 - ID#27341)
A succesfull test of the US275 would be enough to convince many bears THATS IT, and many on the side-lines to get in ?

(Fri May 22 1998 20:50 - ID#370218)
Kitco 2...I haven't laughed that hard since hard attack.. by HenryD

(Fri May 22 1998 20:56 - ID#210114)
downunder A
I agree, I think many people will come in at that level figuring that it can't get much lower.

Furthermore, many mines, particularly in South Africa will be well and truly unprofitable. Closures will result leaving physical shortages. Barring major selling by CBs ( sell at these prices?; I don't think so ) there should be a rise in the price.

In short, $US275 tp 300 in the long term is unsustainable. In our case, lets hope the $A doesn't tank too badly. That way we too will be able to pick up some bargains.

(Fri May 22 1998 20:58 - ID#26793)
Gold and silver coin prices at mid-day Friday

(Fri May 22 1998 20:58 - ID#342376)
Kitco 2
Thanks for the link. I just about wet my pants reading that site! If anyone hasn't been over there, take a trip to the funnyfarm. One post by "ANOTHER" got my going so much, I'm still laughing.

(Fri May 22 1998 21:00 - ID#27341)
Yes again, put together very well

Bully Beef
(Fri May 22 1998 21:01 - ID#259282)
Caper This morning about taxation going to an agency in Canada.

Scary! You bet! I work for Parks and we are doing the same. But we are not privy to Canadian's most guarded secrets... like their incomes.

(Fri May 22 1998 21:01 - ID#227290)
Market Comments
To all:

Barrick Gold closed at 21 even. The 200-day MA sits at 20.43 and the 100-day MA sits at 20.35. The uptrend line from the January low has been broken, but no previous low of significance has been taken out.

As for stochastics, on the weekly chart they are dropping but on the daily chart they have reached an extreme and turned back up.

So the picture is quite muddy. My stand is to stay long until a definitive breakdown occurs. This would entail falling below the two MAs for starters. And I would have to see a breakdown in gold to convince me I wasn't going to get whipsawed after coming out.

In gold, the close today was 300.05, down 1.20 for the week. The 200-day MA sits at 305.11 and the 100-day MA sits at 299.46. The uptrend line from the January low is still in tact. It would require a break under 296.36 to violate that line.

The weekly stochastics are declining but are turning as though they would go back up. The daily stochastics have turned up and are nearing mid-range.

I went long on gold and gold stocks last Wednesday-Friday. It's been a trying week as the gold market is not far from disaster. But OTOH, it is not far from great success, either.

If gold breaks its uptrend line, I would think it spells disaster and would see a retest of the 280 level in the offing. But it wouldn't take much to blast over the 200-day MA, over the April highs, and begin making a run at the Oct '97 high of 338.50. We're right there and this has been the cause of my anxiety and excessive emotion this week.

Technically, I'm staying with the gold market because it has not broken the uptrend line. Fundamentally, I think the odds favor success if for no other reason than the sharp decline of the U.S. dollar index this week. Fred Bergstrom made the statement on Wednesday that the dollar was 15-20% overvalued. It broke down decisively the next day. I don't think the two events are coincidental.

A delayed reaction to the dollar decline is not unusual, IMO.

Also, technically speaking, the big event for gold this year has been its reaction to news of the Belgium sale of 299 tonnes. It rose $21 in short order after the announcement, which says this market is not the same man it was in 1997.

Also technically, look back to January. Gold put in an outside month reversal; this was followed by two months of consolidation, and then a breakout to new highs. This pullback is alleviating an oversold condition. My bias is for gold to make even higher highs on the next runup, which I think began on Wed., May 13. So I'm staying long and bullish.

The XAU finished at 81.04, down 3.25 for the week. Its 100-day MA should offer support at 78.68. And there's an uptrend line between the current price and the 100-day MA that should offer even more support. A breakdown below these two will spell big trouble. But there's no use worrying about that before it happens. So far, it hasn't and the uptrend is still in tact. Stay with it.

Silver is oversold and ready to bounce. The weak close today doesn't look good. We had a reversal day on Wednesday but didn't get a positive weekly close. There could be some further downside action next week resulting in a non-confirmation momentum turnaround. Or the market could turn on a dime and move sharply higher, which is the scenario I favor.

To the upside, silver has its work cut out for it. It needs to move back over both its MAs, which are currently much higher; and it also needs to get back within the uptrend which it violated a few weeks ago.

But the fundamentals behind silver are staggering. The imbalance between supply and demand can only be met through the function of a higher price. It's time to get very bullish on silver.

Hope this helps.

The Preacher

(Fri May 22 1998 21:04 - ID#210114)
crazytimes and Kitco 2
Another's post aobut the camel's arse was hilarious. Obviously an imposter. Breaching USAGold copyright yes?

(Fri May 22 1998 21:06 - ID#342376)
Sorry to doule post but....
Kitco 2 is the Saturday Night Live version of this site. Unbelievable! I can't thank you guys enough for the link. It really put some things into perspective about THIS site. That one simple post from ANOTHER has STILL got me going.

(Fri May 22 1998 21:11 - ID#252391)
Interesting post Preacher
Things right on the edge of greatness and continued weakness. Thanks for all the raw data and the emotional tug of war.

I don't see that anything know to man and likely to happen can make gold go up. Sellers whether they be central banks or speculators are overpowering the longs at every turn. Lastly, iof the fundlementals for silver were so compelling why would anybody be short. I just don't get it. We are not the opnly ones that have see the numbers. three and one half years left of current deficit and Poooo no more silver.

I can not believe that the shorts are trying to put the market down so they can go long; that requires twice the buying.

This thing is beyond my understanding becasue it is not rational in any way that I've been able to determine, but the charts have been deterioratilng and yes this could be the end of the correction, corrections always look bad, OR it could be the edge of a shelf.

Monday, rather Tuesday we'll see a close in the XAU below 80.

Remind me if I'm wrong.

(Fri May 22 1998 21:12 - ID#227290)
Ersel & SWC

Sorry to take so long. I thought Jins analysis was pretty good last night. SWC is definitely in a correction at this point. It looks like this leg downward will carry to about 23.
With the pgms market the way it is right now, I would get out of SWC till things calm down. You can really get hurt in wild swinging markets like this.

My choice for a pgms stock right now is North American Palladium, which rose a few cents more this week while the pgms were declining sharply. I would steer clear of SWC for now until the dust settles.

The Preacher

(Fri May 22 1998 21:13 - ID#174103)
1985 reporting requirements for gold
Referring to pre-1933 gold pieces, from the usagold site: "Pre-1933 $20 gold pieces have become a very important addition to most gold portfolios. Exempted from the gold confiscation of 1933 and exempted from the 1985 federal reporting requirements, this item offers privacy protections not available with bullion coins. For the privacy minded, we recommend at least half your gold holdings be in this form."

Does anybody know what the 1985 reporting requirements are and where they are referenced? thanks in advance...

(Fri May 22 1998 21:13 - ID#413109)
TA (Tech Analysis)
Many have given their calls on what the charts are saying, and I find
no fault with the interpretations. In fact I would have to say good
reading, and possibly, good conclusions.
The down flags and penants of the bond and S&P weeklies, are going in
the opposite direction to the up flag or penant of the golds, which would
signal, we all agree, an upmove in the bond market and a down in golds.

End of last week I predicted golds would go up based on the work I do,
I have not gotten the move I expected, and now have to wait and see if
the original premise of XAU going to the low to mid 70s will now occur,
as last week I didn't think so.

HOWEVER even if we go lower from here nothing has changed except the
pattern of the base building. Instead of a 3rd leg up, as I forsaw, we'll
get a testing of the bottom. A short term trader would take advantage of
this sort of move, and a long term investor would use the opportunity to
add to his position.

What most lack, and I include myself in this catagory, is "PATIENCE",
a very valuable commodity, well worth accumulating. If one reads posts,
intra day, daily and or weekly, one will notice words like the market
is "tanking" when the price changes, let's say a dollar. If one then goes
to his charts and looks it's just a little jiggle, signifying zilch.
Will the "TREND" change if we go back into the mid $280 range for gold?
Will the fundamentals, which we've been speaking about for the past
many months?

One more little point- check the various gold stock charts, and you will
not find unity in direction. Many stocks have similar patterns, but some
have moved up this week while others have not, and some have gone down.

What I believe important in the last 6 months of "basing" is there has
been volume coming in while a pattern developed that generally went
sideways, after a significant drop from higher levels. This is an important development, for the little guy ( me ) to observe and interpret,
as I don't have the means, or even the ability to interpret all of the
fundamentals, and behavior of the crowds ( investors ) , and other factors
such as daily news events, that we are constantly bombarded with.
Soooo i look at long term charts, and I say, The tech stocks are being
distributed by smart money, while the PMs are being accumulated by
"smart money", and this I see in TA.

Have also stated that IMHO the Techs ( NASDAQ ) was the leader to the
upside, and I thought might be the tip of the iceberg, or leader in the
opposite direction, when that happens. Now I see a bigger deterioration
in NASDAQ than I see in S&P or DOW, but who knows?

What is frightening is the wild west mentality of "pull the wagons into
a cirlce" and get your weapons ready and loaded. Hey people, we are
all in the same boat, we've all enjoyed the good times and will all
suffer in bad times. Whatever happened to love thy neighbor, or
all of the other worthwhile sayings that bring us together? Respect
those with different opinions, beliefs, size, wealth, or what have you?
Let's start thinking of how we can continue to help one another, and
we certainly have done that, on KITCO, haven't we?

Instead of knocking someone for a bad call, let's see why, and help
that someone to learn to improve his record, and you may just find
that "Lurkers" will join the group again, and some good contributors
may return. We certainly have lost some very valuable ones.

That people is the sermon for today, halaluyah. OUCH!

(Fri May 22 1998 21:14 - ID#300202)
@Bully Beef
ANOTHER scary thought. The further spread of RCMP contracts thru-out
the country. RCM Police used to shy away from getting into Municipal
contracts. At one time were offered provincial contracts in the Province
of Ontario but shyed away so as not to give the appearance of a Police State. At the start of budgetary restaints the Commissioner's view was
eliminate all municipal contracts & provincial & become strictly a Federal Agency only. Now the new trend is to expand. Premier Hatfield
( doper ) got rid of the Mounties on the highway & started their own Hwy
Patrol. RCMP have now returned. What I find unusal is the elimination
of the Moncton City P.D. as recently been taken over by the RCMP-which
on the Canadian East Coast is unusual for the RCM Police to take over Provincial Contracts. Watch for this to spread. Then watch for more information sharing between agencies.

(Fri May 22 1998 21:18 - ID#210114)
Good Call Reify
I totally agree with your last paragraph. People do get very rude here when they give their opinions.

Let's all be cool to one another.

Live Long and Prosper.

Gusto Oro
(Fri May 22 1998 21:21 - ID#430260)
Preacher, great words of wisdom. I suspect silver is ready to strengthen. Three of my penny silver stocks had big turnarounds the last couple of days after sharp downturns. Perhaps this suggests the white metal is ready for higher ground. --AG

(Fri May 22 1998 21:21 - ID#227290)
jims & the silver market

I would say that markets are notoriously inefficient. That's what gives us an opportunity to profit. If markets were properly valued at all times, where would our opportunity come from. Warren Buffett saw an opportunity in an inefficent silver market and he took it.
Early this year, I and others saw an inefficient pgms market and took advantage of it.
Men are fallible and the market, as the sum of men's actions on it, is equally fallable. In the end, though, value will out. Silver will not only get properly valued at some point, it will get overvalued.
If we can see it happen when it happens, we'll have another chance to profit from an inefficient market.

The Preacher

(Fri May 22 1998 21:25 - ID#300202)
Bully B
U shud realize that Revneue Canada designates one/two RCMP officers
within their Commercial Crime Section as their tax liason person with
full access to each other files, however, this designated "tax agent"
is sworn not to share same with other Horsemen. Do u believe that these
rules are abided by. Just food for thought. I am sure that with Parks
Canada, u are familiar with the good old boys network. Look at medical info, banking info, credit info or telephone info that is provided to
Rev Canada in exchange. This goes on & on as police officers have cultivated excellent sources that can & does in fact get passed onto
our revenuers, like this info on Kitco. I don't care or maybe I shud.

(Fri May 22 1998 21:25 - ID#252391)
US dollar and Kitco 2
Preacher, I have to disagree on the state of the US Dollar. Yes it was down hard on Thursday but came back up on Friday to close at 99.30 was it - abouve 99 anyway. No its chart doesn't look that great but it compares very well to the CRB index, OIL, SILVER and Platinum, now.

We are picking bottoms; seems to me the aforementioned index and commodities are in serious downtrends - yes, they could turn and go up but we inflationists are fighting the last war trying to win with gold.

Again the dollar may not look great, its at the lower end of a trading range , bonds are at the upper end of their.

This is eithr the moment the sea tide changes or off the shelf we go for another leg down. Silver was going to be in just as short of supply 12 months ago when its price was under $4 - could go there again seems to me. UNTIL there are more buyers than sellers at current prices the price for Gold, silver, Plat, oil, CRB will go down as they have been

The dollar and Bonds are king/

(Fri May 22 1998 21:26 - ID#408170)
Thanks Nick@C
What I've done speaks louder than what I ( think ) I should do....RB

I m still laughing over your last post.

A Bright Morning to Ya.

(Fri May 22 1998 21:31 - ID#27341)
Reify & Spock
Yes to That

(Fri May 22 1998 21:36 - ID#72316)
Would somone please post the URL to ANOTHERS post..


(Fri May 22 1998 21:36 - ID#300202)
One more thing-This National Tax Collection Agency was not even publicized. Called our local NDP M.P. who became upset as HE DID NOT KNOW. Just think-Federal/Provincial/Municipal Taxes along with bill
collection. What a neat f'n way to streamline/collect info. The intention
is evil & not budgetary. At this point I'm getting upset. Gotta chill out
& back to reading KitKat.

(Fri May 22 1998 21:38 - ID#344239)

(Fri May 22 1998 21:39 - ID#252391)
Inefficent markets
Good point Preacher about markets being inefficent - got to remember that. The efficency level currently looks to like thatof the US government IF the prices we see quoted end up going higher.

What I don't think we understand is the effects of the crdit crunch takijg place in Asia and the effect that has on purchasing.

The markets could all be inefficently too high if we go into a steep recession - Asia is well on its way, Russia is just about a write off - how can the US be missed. AG is going to save us.

Inefficency is a two way street. We could be too high as well as too low, we certainly were in the case of oil at 16 dollars just a few weeks ago with silver at $6.50 and Gold 317 - ah the good old days.

(Fri May 22 1998 21:41 - ID#411331)
@ Jims: We shall see what a $300 billion trade deficit does to the value of the United
States dollar. Combine this with the sell off the American equity markets, and a reversal of the yen carrying trade and we shall see if
technical chartist patterns can dominate those sorts of fundamentals.

(Fri May 22 1998 21:47 - ID#372400)
Platimun -- Japanese selling
A broker told me that Japanese were selling platinum heavily in the last several days. Does anyone know the hiostory of there PM timing. Is it as dismal as there real estate investing?

(Fri May 22 1998 21:53 - ID#411331)
@ALL US stock market crash index is now at -4. At -10, it's look out below!
This index was 0 just 3 days ago, and that was the lowest in God knows how many years.

(Fri May 22 1998 22:06 - ID#410215)
..... Gold Report .....

First primarily, in the first place to begin with: beginning, then leading inevitably to second place secondarily.

Next to this, then again also in the next place, becomes incidentally not as before.

Once more, moreoverfurthermore: likewise besides similarly - for example i.e. for instance ANOTHER?

Then nevertheless still however. Now at the same time yet, in spite of that, on the other hand or on the contrary entirely; certainly and most seriously surely doubtless indeedy.

Perhaps, even possibly - probably anyway.

Lastly In all probability and likelihood, and in all events in any case:

Therefore consequently accordingly thus, as a resulting consequence of this, might and should well be expected by merit and virtue of the forgoing and preceding as already stated and previously mentioned.

Thank You

(Fri May 22 1998 22:06 - ID#27341)
Rhody- crash index
my calculations from that crash index works out at 12.37 tuesday , ? ha

(Fri May 22 1998 22:13 - ID#227290)
arby & ANOTHER

Here are two sites that have it. One of the newsletters I take put it up.

The Preacher

(Fri May 22 1998 22:13 - ID#341234)
Y2K on 20/20
There is not a story on 20/20 tonight about Y2K. Sorry for the mis-informating. There are 2 possibilities.
1. The story was pre-empted by yet another school shooting story.
2. The guy I work with who told me about it had no idea what he was talking about.
Moral: Do not believe anything people say because if they are not liars, there is still a good chance they are just plain stupid.

(Fri May 22 1998 22:14 - ID#27341)

(Fri May 22 1998 22:15 - ID#57232)
Another Jeff Gertz article about ChinaMissleSatGate
All: More New York Times articles pending --

(Fri May 22 1998 22:17 - ID#223391)
In a word,


(Fri May 22 1998 22:18 - ID#286250)
3-cubed--Excuse me for putting my oar in the water, but if your
truly interested in seeing how the XFO-Gold Franc is used
in international business, the ITU-T ( International Telecommunication Union Blue Book has a helpful example--go to page 3 ( of 4 )

There is a tidy table that shows one exactly how charges
are computed...{:- )

(Fri May 22 1998 22:21 - ID#223391)
Are you telling what kinds of things you are looking at when you put together this index? Nostradamus? Crystal Ball? McLellan Oscillators? Advance Decline lines? Without some kind of idea where you're coming from, it's hard to get a handle on what you're saying.

Yours curiouser and curiouser, Promey

(Fri May 22 1998 22:22 - ID#57232)
Let me guess --
RJ: Are you training to be the next Fed Chairman? Pretty good. Or -- could be thinking of 'another' role?

On a more serious note -- while you're here -- anything about the Dutch Gold sales? Any news from the precious metals floor traders?

I think the most fascinating mystery these days is not the gold situation, but what is happening with the US dollar -- behind the scenes. Just where is AG putting all those dollars, and if there are US treasury buyers put there, what premium has he been forced to pay to get them to step up to the plate?

(Fri May 22 1998 22:28 - ID#286234)
I see lots of people online so I'll open the bar in a minute. I have enjoyed meeting many of you, but I can't be waiting for some one to come in everytime I open. So here's a tip. If you drop in and noone's there, don't leave, chats wont get started if you do, stick around awhile, you can still scan and post at Kitco while you are sipping a wine, chugging a beer, shooting a vodka. Have a good time.

(Fri May 22 1998 22:29 - ID#410215)
..... JTF .....

After trashing Windows 95, I spent the last couple days rebuilding my OS. Since I am a fanatic about backup, I lost no data, but I am well and truly sick and tired of this damn computer for the week.

No real news in gold. The big story has been the drop in silver and platinum. Next week will be NAB, yes?


(Fri May 22 1998 22:31 - ID#284255)
Received from Aurator - the angry auracious one
Hi Nick

Yeah I've been trashing cookies here and trashing cookies there, I've
been trashing cookies everywhere. I think I shall stop for a while,
read more of those emails you sent of the past few days at kitco, yes,
they are appreciated, and try from time to time to log back in. I
wonder if you'd pass on my thanks to all those who've helped, and, until
I can figure out, or probably luck in to, a way to get back on kitco, if
you'd send the kitco posts as you have been. As I remember, when it
happened to DOnald he got back on unexpectedly without doing anything he

Bugger me with me parka on, was my little contribution to kitco #2.

(Fri May 22 1998 22:34 - ID#227290)
jims, inefficiency & the dollar

Touche! Perhaps the market was inefficient when gold was at $317 and silver was $7.30.

I don't like to talk too much politics and religion on Kitco. But let me say this: despite how imposing the U.S. looks to the rest of the world, you can't do everything wrong and have everything turn out all right.
Paper monetary systems are not permanent. Debt is not wealth. Coercive governmental action on businesses and families is not productive, but counter-productive.
The United States and the peoples within it will relearn these lessons the hard day one day. Of this I am assured.
So when the charts look to me like the dollar will fall, stocks will fall, bonds will fall, and gold will rise, I tend to believe them.
Why? Because ultimately they must.
While it may look to you like the bull market in the U.S. has done great things for this country, from my view it has virtually destroyed the moral fabric of the country. America's new motto is: Don't rock the boat.
This is why Clinton is allowed to go on the way he has. Few people care as long as their mutual funds keep rising. They don't want the boat rocked. They don't support Clinton, but to remove him might hurt the market and they are willing to sell their society down the drain just so that the net worth will rise.
This is a dreadful disease that comes right before death.
The gold bug right now is like Washington at Valley Forge. Hanging on amidst the toughest of circumstances mindful of the rightness of our cause and the inevitability of our victory. We've been here before.
What happened in Asia must happen here. In 1992, Barron's ran an article called Apocalypse Soon. It was written by one of the Camstock Partners, whose name escapes me now. Obviously, he, like many of us, was vastly premature.
Still, he saw how things must unravel in the U.S. And I'll never forget his perspective that collapses in other parts of the world were truly a sideshow, the center ring was the U.S. When it goes, we will certainly have a New World Order, only vastly different from the one President Bush and the internationalists planned.

Back to the markets, the U.S. dollar, which has been so strong for the past three years, is only in a bear market rally. It has been dropping since the early 1970s against the major currencies of the world. Why is that?
It is because with all its strength and prestige, the U.S. has been allowed to run up a debt unparalled in all of history. And it has taken advantage of its superpower status to go on a spending spree unlike anything ever seen in history.
And as you might know, when a man is running up a big debt, he appears quite prosperous until it's time to pay the tab; then he looks like something much less than prosperous. This is the condition of the United States. It is almost time to pay the tab.
The bill collector is at the door. Eventually, the debt will be paid in full. And then it will become apparent to all that debt is not wealth.

I should drink a little wine more often.

The Preacher

(Fri May 22 1998 22:41 - ID#228128)
St Jude Resources
Made a nice move today from .89 to 1.49 on 4.2 million shares. They got some nice looking drill results.

(Fri May 22 1998 22:47 - ID#348129)
@Better Scrap WIN95 By 2000
GCN May 18, 1998
Windows has date flaws

By Florence Olsen
GCN Staff

Microsoft Windows 98, now under Justice Department scrutiny, is the only fully year 2000-ready operating system from Microsoft Corp.

Other Microsoft OSes arent quite there yet, even though company officials describe the current Windows 95, Windows for Workgroups 3.11 and Windows NT 4.0 releases as compliant, with minor issues. The company earlier had said its 32-bit operating systems were ready for 2000.

Each operating system has unique issues that weve tried to address with updates, said Chris Barker, a Microsoft architectural engineer.

The news from Microsoft means that government systems administrators who stay with current Win95 and NT versions must sooner or later download the companys free year 2000 upgrade files and distribute them to Windows users. The fixes apply to the OSes, not to Microsofts or other vendors applications.

Barker said distribution tools such as Microsoft Systems Management Server would likely lighten the load for administrators who will have to inventory the PC products on their networks and apply year 2000 patches, in some cases, to thousands of client PCs within the next 19 months.

Few federal government agencies have even begun testing their Microsoft applications, said Gayle Finch, year 2000 project coordinator for the Health and Human Services Department.

Weve been focusing on our large legacy systems, and I think so has everybody else, Finch said.

Federal agencies, however, will be getting around to those applications soon and may be waiting for Windows 98, Finch said. I believe that thats Microsofts mainline strategy for year 2000 compliance, and naturally theyre going to make everybody buy it, she said.

Some employees in HHS are still using Windows 3.x, Finch said. Like most government agencies, we dont typically get the latest and greatest as soon as its available, she said. And frankly, some of the stuff is overkill for your typical user who is still doing mostly word processing, e-mail and a spreadsheet or two.

The newly revealed problems in current versions of Win95s winfile.exe stem from the Windows File Manager, which does not display dates beyond the year 2000, and from the Date command in, which cannot interpret two-digit year dates expressed as, say, 00-79.

Fixes for the winfile.exe and files, for instance, are in a win95y2k.exe file that administrators can download free from Microsofts Web software library at

All Win95 operating systems also have some century date issues involving the Date tab in the Find File or Folders dialog box, for which Microsoft so far has provided no separate fix. The Date tab displays only two-digit year date fields, and after 2000 it cannot display the correct year.

The tab also fails to return correct answers in searches for file changes occurring past 12/31/99.
Microsoft officials said they have no separate fixes yet for the Date tab problems, but they advised installing Microsoft Internet Explorer 4.0 or a later version of the browser. Netscape Navigator and earlier versions of Internet Explorer do not have the File Find fix.

Internet Explorer, a central item in the Justice Departments antitrust investigation of Microsoft, contains a variety of updated system files, Barker said.

As Microsoft updates files over time, Barker said, it often puts the new files first into Internet Explorer, Office or other Microsoft applications that immediately need such files.

Microsoft engineers expect to finish their year 2000 testing of Windows NT 3.51 soon.

Administrators can find more about year 2000 fixes at the sites and

Microsoft lawyers, apparently worried about a separate legal assault by Microsoft users, have issued strongly worded liability disclaimers about the products ability to display and properly compute dates after Dec. 31, 1999.

In no event, the official disclaimer notes, shall Microsoft Corp. or its suppliers be liable for any damages whatsoever including direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, loss of business profits, punitive or special damages, even if Microsoft Corp. or its suppliers have been advised of the possibility of such damages.

GCN senior editor Michael Cheek contributed to this story.

(Fri May 22 1998 22:47 - ID#373403)
March 31, 1998 FOMC meeting minutes
In the implementation of policy for the immediate future, the Committee seeks conditions in reserve markets consistent with maintaining the federal funds rate at an average of around 5-1/2 percent. In the context of the Committee's long-run objectives for price stability and sustainable economic growth, and giving careful consider- ation to economic, financial, and monetary developments, a somewhat higher federal funds rate would or a slightly lower federal funds rate might be acceptable in the intermeeting period. The contemplated reserve conditions are expected to be consistent with considerable modera- tion in the growth in M2 and M3 over coming months.

Votes for this action: Messrs. Greenspan, McDonough, Ferguson, Gramlich,
Hoenig, Kelley, Meyer, Mses. Minehan, Phillips, Mr. Poole, and Ms. Rivlin.

Votes against this action: Mr. Jordan.

Mr. Jordan dissented because growth rates of various measures of money and credit in the second half of 1997 and the first quarter of this year were not consistent in his view with continued progress in reducing inflation. Recent price statistics understated the trend rates of inflation. The one-time effects of falling oil prices, lower food prices, and recent appreciation of the dollar on foreign-exchange markets provided only a temporary reduction of inflation. While some reacceleration of reported rates of inflation was probably unavoidable, sustained rapid money growth would risk even higher inflation in future years. The durability of the economic expansion would be jeopardized by price and wage decisions reflecting expectations that the purchasing
power of the dollar would decline at faster rates in the future. Once such expectations became imbedded in the economy, even stronger policy actions would be required in order to reestablish a downward trend of inflation.

It was agreed that the next meeting of the Committee would be held on Tuesday, May 19, 1998.

The meeting adjourned at 1:05 p.m.

Donald L. Kohn

(Fri May 22 1998 22:47 - ID#57232)
Goldbugs: Washington at Valley Forge!
Preacher: I like that! Virtually no one is on our side, there is no food, the clothing is inadequate, and things look very bleak indeed. But -- the tide is about to change. We see the same with Clinton's fortunes.

I like your second analogy -- that the public is tolerating BC because they don't want to rock the boat. I don't think the average person knows how shaky things really are, either.

But they will turn on any president who is in office when this thing breaks, or even significantly weakens.

By the way, I read somewhere that most people are thought to be genetically programmed not to 'rock the boat'. It is amazing how much the average person can tolerate if the change is very slow. But -- just as we see in Indonesia --- there is a distinct temporal and spatial ( change ) threshold for action. And then -- no politician can stand in the way of what the people want.

(Fri May 22 1998 22:52 - ID#348129)
@Y2K - Just a Taste of Things to Come
1998 Philadelphia Newspapers Inc.
A harbinger of Y2-chaos?

Were you suddenly beeperless the other day? Find yourself scrambling for greenbacks at the gas pump after the card reader went dead? Miss the second hour of All Things Considered on National Public Radio?

Pain in the neck, eh? And all because a single satellite went on the blink.

Who'd have suspected that a mishap 22,000 miles up would send thousands of cops, docs and real estate brokers scrambling to find a pay phone? Well, hold on to your transponder; as telecommunications blackouts go, this wasn't nothin' compared to the mess we'll see when the year-2000 bug hits in exactly one year and 223 days.

Or so it seems from talking to the increasingly nervous technicians, analysts and lawyers who warn that something as seemingly innocuous as a computer's inability to read a date could bring on a Godzilla-sized calamity.

I last discussed the Y2K ( that's year-2000 to you civilians ) in a column after CoreStates Financial Corp.'s chairman, Terry Larsen, cited it as a key reason he decided to sell the Philadelphia banking company to First Union Corp. Preparing CoreStates' computers to read "00" as 2000 instead of 1900 would have cost a bundle, Larsen said; First Union, by contrast, appeared to be already on top of the problem.

An ocean of anxiety

That column had an unexpected afterlife, sparking weeks of passionate colloquy on Internet bulletin boards and chat groups. Some took it as proof that the date glitch will indeed bring life as we know it to a halt, while others claimed it showed that things were, in fact, under control. ( Computers a mess? No sweat -- just sell the company! )

But the ripples from my little pebble soon disappeared into what's become a roiling sea of predictions, warnings, forecasts and alarms regarding what may -- let's emphasize that, may -- happen when midnight rolls around on Dec. 31, 1999. Scenarios range from inconveniences on roughly the scale of Wednesday's beeper problems to a full-blown, gosh-amighty doomsday featuring simultaneous breakdowns in air-traffic control, telecommunications, electric power and other vital systems.

Bernie Sayers, a South Jersey computer consultant who has become an e-mail pen pal, tells me he's making plans for the year 2000 based on the belief that "the problem is much too complex and deep to solve in the time remaining. . . . I'm planning for long-term electrical outages, government infrastructure failure at all levels -- federal, state, city -- as well as financial collapse. The amount of money I have in a bank is very minimal. . . . I'm stocking up on non-hybrid seeds, tools, and I'm working on a wood-powered generator as well as researching alcohol production and engine modification."

Recession, anyone?

If that sounds a little extreme, how about a recession? Ed Yardeni, chief economist for Deutsche Morgan Grenfell, thinks there's a better-than-even chance we'll have one, as malfunctioning computers disrupt commerce all over the world. It won't be doomsday, Yardeni says, just a slowdown in production and economic growth at least as severe as the 1973-74 downturn that followed the first Arab oil embargo. Yardeni currently gives it a 60 percent probability.

On the other hand, it's clear that we've begun mobilizing to stave off Y2K chaos. Banks all over America are already scrambling to comply with regulators' demands that both they and the companies they have lent to prepare for Jan. 1, 2000. Insurers are putting similar pressure on their customers. Lawyers and accountants are demanding their clients write Y2K clauses into contracts and spell out the problems in financial statements.

If that's not the same as actually reprogramming computers to fix the problem, at least it puts it on everybody's agenda. There may never have been such a massive project in all of technological history. But then, no society has ever been so technologically advanced, or so intertwined.

(Fri May 22 1998 22:56 - ID#410114)
gold bonds
Hello Mozel:

Gold bonds don't have a good history in the US. The US gov't and corporations sold them to buyers before 1934. The gold aspect of the bonds was purchased by the buyers and sold by the issuers as a protection against any dollar devaluation. In 1934 the US gov't defaulted and the US supereme court ruled that private issuers didn't have to make any gold payments because it would be against "public policy." The gold bond buyers had been lied to and cheated - legally.

The bonds were to be paid in gold coin.

(Fri May 22 1998 22:56 - ID#153102)
If Evolution intended for socialists to fly, it would have given them wings like birds and not merely a bird brain.

(Fri May 22 1998 23:01 - ID#57232)
Sunday News Lineup
All: Chinamisslegate a major topic.

Sorry -- My previous post about Chinamisslegate was from Bill Gertz of National Review, not Jeff Gerth. I was looking for Matt Drudges claim that Jeff Gerth already has a response to the CIA/Whitehouse releases. I guess we have to wait for the Saurday and Sunday New York Times.

(Fri May 22 1998 23:03 - ID#153102)
So, I guess you could say socialist lying and cheating is "public policy" of the United States Government. I would agree with you if you did.

I wonder who's buying the Gold Bond Lie now ?

(Fri May 22 1998 23:13 - ID#255151)
Y2K and Clinton

Can anyone see Clinton taking a gamble and playing the Y2K card? I mean, this guy is looking at impeachment, disgrace, and possible criminal prosecution. He might be desperate enough to precipitate a financial panic based on Y2K. Of course, he would try to shift blame for Y2K on the computer industry, banks, etc. And, he would try to be the hero in the fight against the Y2K problem. If I were Clinton, that is exactly what I'd do.

(Fri May 22 1998 23:17 - ID#408170)

(Fri May 22 1998 23:20 - ID#286230)
Looks like the kid also had built a bomb. Maybe my commet about the Unibomber and parents wasn't so far off

(Fri May 22 1998 23:25 - ID#222235)
Thanks for the link.

(Fri May 22 1998 23:26 - ID#410114)
Gold bonds
The phrase "public policy" was a Supreme court construction. The worst part of those two words is that they are undefinable. And what every one
"sort of" thinks is the current "public policy" can change at any time for any reason.

Steve in TO__A
(Fri May 22 1998 23:30 - ID#209265)
ThanQ for the note about gold bonds in the 30's! Roosevelt invoked the WWI "Trading with the Enemy Act" to justify his gold confiscation. His theme was that anyone who didn't help in his efforts to reflate the economy was harming the public, i.e. gold hoarders were public enemies. This was quite a stretch- taking an act designed to force people not to trade with the Germans and declaring that it also applied to people who trafficed in gold.

Once this was accepted and the courts agreed that Roosevelt had the authority to prohibit private ownership of gold, then holders of gold bonds were screwed- they couldn't be given something they were forbidden to own. This is yet another example of how legal and political consistency is inconsistent with common sense.

Anyhow, when our crash happens I expect to see something similar happen. This time around, people with hard assets such as gold and silver will be vilified for "money laundering." Gold and silver coins are, after all, the best form of cash, and peope with gold will become enemies in the War Against Drugs. You might even see people who use gold and silver coins being busted and subjected to asset forfeitures just like people who try to buy cars or boats for cash, or who withdraw large amounts of money in cash from the bank.

Kind of scary.

What are your thoughts on the matter, gang? Would you defy the gov't if they tried to take away your physical gold?

- Steve

(Fri May 22 1998 23:34 - ID#410114)
gold bonds
I think Milhouse has described gold and silver leasing which is, I think, basically the same thing.

Steve in TO__A
(Fri May 22 1998 23:40 - ID#209265)
Crash Index
Did anyone look at Mr. Ford's Crash Index today. It was 0 midweek, went down to -2 yesterday, is now -4!

You're supposed to bail out when the index hits -10.

- Steve

(Fri May 22 1998 23:41 - ID#335190)
FWIW @ America for Rent:..Freedom at Risk.. National Tax Collection Agency
Copyright 1994 by Citizens for an Alternative Tax System ( CATS ) .. Permission is granted for duplication and distribution of the information contained in this booklet as long as CATS is credited as the source of the information.

They created the first free people to survive as a nation in modern times. They wrote a new kind of Constitution, which is now the oldest in existence. They built a new kind of commonwealth designed as a model for the whole human race. They believed it was thoroughly possible to create a new kind of civilization, providing freedom, equalityand justice for all. They created a new expansive cultural climate that gave eagle's wings to the human spirit.

They encouraged exploration and technology to reveal the secrets of the universe. They built a free-enterprise culture to promote millions of jobs and unprecedented prosperity. They invented, for the world as well as themselves, a whole new formula for happiness. They offered the human race a potential future filled with the ultimate hope of the human heart - a world of universal freedom, universal prosperity, and universal peace.

According to a recent report, The State of Working America 1994-95, The deteriorating wages of the 1980s have not only deteriorated further in the 1990s, they have also dragged new groups of workers down with them.

A 1994 report by the World Economic Forum provides a sobering warning for the United States. The report reveals that in the industrialized world, 350 million workers are employed at an average wage of $18 per hour. They face competition, real or potential, from 1.2 billion workers in Russia, China, India, Mexico and other developing countries, where wages average less than $2 per hour __ and in many regions, less than $1. The result is massive pressure on labor in those industrial nations who fail to raise the productivity of workers, the report predicted.

As wages have gone down so has 'capacity utilization', the government's measure for the rate U.S. factories and other facilities are working.

Waste, Abuse And Corruption

The present tax system fails in its promise of fairness and equity. It hurts economic growth and it drives a wedge between classes and groups in America. It is, however, a smashing success in one area: it fuels government intrusion and waste!

Lost: 5.4 Billion Hours - $618 Billion

Congressional testimony recently disclosed that businesses and individuals waste over 5.4 billion- hours on federal tax compliance activities per year. That's the equivalent of hiring 2.7 million people working full time on tax compliance! That is a staggering burden and a drag on the economy which adds precisely nothing- to that all-important productivity growth or national competitiveness - two of the most vital elements in increasing wages and living standards.

Foreign Subsidy

But perhaps the unkindest cut of all for the American worker, in a bizarre phenomenon which lowers wages and destroys American jobs, is the way the present income tax system actually subsidizes foreign competition.

The income tax's devastating negative impact on our export's ability to compete directly affects U.S. job creation. Given that every billion dollars of overseas sales supports an average of 19,100 jobs here, a broad cross section of respected economists agree that America's economic recovery hinges on the growth of exports!

And in another bizarre and incredible quirk in the present income tax system, U.S. subsidiaries of foreign-owned corporations routinely escape income taxes required of domestic firms. In 1987 alone, it ran to an estimated $50 billion. A Ways and Means Committee study of just eight foreign-owned electronics firms found that, though they reported $14 billion in gross receipts. They paid no federal income taxes whatsoever!

Special Influence, Access And Rent-Seeking

In the words of 1992 Nobel Laureate in economics, Gary S. Becker of the University of Chicago, In modern economies, profits often are determined more by government subsidies, taxes and regulations than by traditional management or entrepreneurial skills.

Foreign Subsidy

But perhaps the unkindest cut of all for the American worker, in a bizarre phenomenon which lowers wages and destroys American jobs, is the way the present income tax system actually subsidizes foreign competition.

This study, sponsored by the Cato Institute in Washington, D.C.,

FWIW.....Take Care

(Fri May 22 1998 23:42 - ID#153102)
Who is this bomber pilot six year old you are obsessing over ?

(Fri May 22 1998 23:46 - ID#335190)
FWIW @ Site
America for Rent:..Freedom at Risk.
Copyright 1994 by Citizens for an Alternative Tax System ( CATS ) .
sponsored by the Cato Institute in Washington, D.C.,

(Fri May 22 1998 23:48 - ID#270172)
The weight of the world on his shoulders
Yesterday on CNBC there was a fair amount of discussion RE Y2K, and talk once or twice took an historical look back at '29. One guest analyst when asked "What is different between the market now and the market of '29" answered. "Things are different now, more information is available, and now we have Allan Greenspan."

I have been reflecting on that response since. If the financial security of the whole world lies upon the shoulders of one man, that is scarier than Y2K!! It is even scarier to think that there are people who are willing to place that kind of faith!!!

(Fri May 22 1998 23:49 - ID#410114)
steve & gold bonds
Steve I disagree. Roosevelt ordered the gold bonds obligations ( gold ) to be reneged on because he wanted to enlarge the gov't's power over the American people.Inorder to do that, he needed to remove the restraint on gov't power that a gold currency imposed. Also, WW 2 didn't start to involve the US until about the very late 1930's. Hitler was elected in 1933.

(Fri May 22 1998 23:51 - ID#153102)
How could Gold and SIlver Leasing be the same as a Gold Bond ?

Why would anybody take a Gold Bond from the USG ? It has cast aside every covenant it ever made regarding gold. The USG's failure to honor promises to pay in gold is one of the constants in this world. You can count on USG to lie about gold redemption. I think that's all you can count on it doing.