Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

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(Thu May 28 1998 00:05 - ID#43349)
After the hyperinflation in Germany right
after WW I the net value of all the savings
and cash accounts in all the banks and
institutions was worth about one US dime.

My dad used to carry a 100,000 Mark bill around
in his wallet that was only printed on one side
because it was too expensive to use the ink to
print both sides.

Interstingly enough, people who had their money in
stocks before the hyperinflation still had about
25% of it's value afterward.

Of course, those who had their holdings in real
goods like gold, diamonds, real estate, objects
de art, etc. fared the best....

(Thu May 28 1998 00:06 - ID#207145)
Ireally can spell defense, and it spells higher gold, and a way to avoid deflation by putting people to work and money in the pockets of the states. Clinton is a wormed over JAMES earl CARTER WHERE DEFENSE IS CONCERNED. wwE WILL NEED TO SPEND, spendSPEND. i'VE SEEN IT COMING. i'M QUITE SURE MOST WON'T BELIEVE THIS REVELATION, AS THT COLD WAR IS DEAD, RIGHT? wRONG. tHE WORLD IS MORE DANGERIOUS NOW THAN EVER.

(Thu May 28 1998 00:11 - ID#244418)
Robby ( the Rhodesian Ridgeback ) --I listen to you on your morning
show over the internet. Would you please post the phone number for
PTG. I can't find it.

(Thu May 28 1998 00:17 - ID#287186)
Mozel and the Klinton-brained FEMA monster
Don't mean to sound like Ziva BUT
a couple of overlapping sources with "connections" tell me that all domestic military bases are preparing for civil emergencies & possibly martial law for the communities within their "jurisdiction".
Unlike Ziva
This is open to peer review and anything anyone hears out there.
If anybody catches ANYTHING that smells of this blow it back here.
THAT is the essence of intelligence gathering - pulling all sorts of little meaningless bits and bytes together. Maybe one of us can look at all the pieces and see a larger picture.
Some of us already see sizable chunks.
Every little piece adds to the puzzle.

(Thu May 28 1998 00:19 - ID#43349)
Heh,heh,heh. Good trick hunh? The truth of the
matter is that the money was all gone into the
pockets of the guys who sold the stock in the
first place and was gone long before anyone
realized it was. Just like any magicians party
trick. It was only when the masses tried to get
their cash back they discovered the cupboard
was bare.

It ended up in the pockets of guys like JP Morgan,
Joe Kennedy, Rothschield, et al. Some of the
greatest fortunes in this country were made just
before and during the great depression. No one had
any cash because those guys had it all. Perhaps
someday we will look back and see that it was at
the beginning of the great depression of the turn
of the 21st century that Warren Buffet made the
greatest fortune of all time.....

dung beetle
(Thu May 28 1998 00:26 - ID#272234)
Junior...Thanks for the wonderful compliment. re your 22:03 Now...
If I had just NOT started averaging down into my bullion ( Au ) purchases from a humbling high of $385. But back then, who would have known? At least I was somewhat cautious; average of total is near $310-315 per oz. at present. ANOTHER good thing is I smelled the smoke and acted before WB in Ag and accumulated at an average of $4.84 per oz.

(Thu May 28 1998 00:31 - ID#207145)

(Thu May 28 1998 00:31 - ID#207145)

(Thu May 28 1998 00:36 - ID#20137)
Excuse me - which one of you just walked off with
53.6% of comex's eligible GOLD!!! What a bargin and it cost you only $50 million of so. ONLY 149,568 ounces left. And its on SALE - $44 million.

Look at the comex copper stocks. WOW!! they just keep dropping, someone seems to be gobbling them up --- kmaybe a nice way to get rid of USdollars.

warehouse stocks:
-- GOLD ( Quoted in Troy Ounce )
Prev. Received Net. Adjust- Total
Total Withdrawn Chg. ment Today

636,926 32,076 40,408 -8,332 172,876 801,470
322,443 0 0 0 -172,875 149,568
959,369 32,076 40,408 -8,332 1 951,038

-- ( Quoted in Troy Ounce )
Net. Adjust- Total
Chg. ment Today

0 54,866 37,347,768
14,822 -54,866 54,147,328
14,822 0 91,495,096

Warehouse stocks:

Copper - high-grade cathodes ( in short tons )
point previous received withdrawn net chg total

Total 88,191 0 974 -974 87,217


Gold 80,000
Silver 13,000
H.G. Copper 7,000

dung beetle
(Thu May 28 1998 00:38 - ID#272234)
Squirrel...I'm right with you, seriously, but...
One thing I have to remind myself of daily is to try not to stress out too much over this. Enjoy simple pleasures of life until this does or doesn't come to pass. DON'T let them take that from you. IMHO...

(Thu May 28 1998 01:26 - ID#410215)

(Thu May 28 1998 01:26 - ID#410215)

(Thu May 28 1998 01:29 - ID#410215)
..... I'm an agreeable fellow, yes? .....

Dung beetle wrote:

( "`-''-/" ) .___..--''"`-._

`o_ o ) `-. ( ) .`-.__.` )

( _Y_. ) ' ._ ) `._ `. ``-..-'

_..`--'_..-_/ /--'_.' .'

( il ) .-'' ( li ) .' ( ( !.-

I agree.


(Thu May 28 1998 01:29 - ID#22956)
that's right........Harry S. Truman...........uh huh,

(Thu May 28 1998 01:32 - ID#410215)
..... Dot ..... Dot .....

I appologize for the two dots below ( and above )

I could not get into the sight

So I forced my way in via the post page

Not easy to stop, I


(Thu May 28 1998 01:34 - ID#410215)
..... Dot .....

..... Dot


(Thu May 28 1998 01:42 - ID#284255)
Avid and email chatter
Its been a good time to be alive, for sure. Now its 1143 before 1080. 1243 before 1080 also.

Many in the mainstream are concerned about y2k. Cant get more "establishment" than Ed Yardeni, of DMG. If the problem is really serioujs---and I'm convinced that it is--it should be wreaking some havoc in the market by next spring.

Nope. Be there about Labor Day. finger alright. I have been short gold about 75% of the time since mid '96. Short now. You'll never make me believe that our great leader, who has made it possi ble for me to make more $$ in the last 5 years without leaving the house than I made in 30 years in business, and who gave us his solemn word that he would have the most ethical administration in history was involved in any kind of hanky-panky. Even if he confesses, I will not believe it.: ) should get some of topx's 4% days toward the end of summer.

When I said we'd see 1080 before 1143, I actually thought we'd see 1070. Guess I musta mis-located the mid-point on my Zig-Zag line. I thought jacad's 1082's would be in the money for at least a few hours, but they only held out for about 45 minutes.: )

Yardeni's leading a crusade to FORCE them to make full disclosure.

I reversed a long position to a short on the close on 4/28/97. The next morning it gapped about 10 handles up against my position. A few minutes after that open, I realized that they were gonna buy this junk till it became utterly ridiculous. I've been saying it ever since. When its over, the boomers will be impoverished. But they gonna get richer for a few more weeks/months. MUCH richer. bedtime. g'nite all. gone.

Time to pay attention bear friends. Your spokesperson Mr. Biggs haseth spoken again. It seems Mr. Biggs is giving it one last try after they euthanized his bear friend Michael Metz at Oppenheimer.
I say if we don't correct 5% in major stock indexes by the second week in June ( after the early earnings warnings ) then we rally right know...just like old times. Translation: If we don't go down then we will go back up. Say, if the best market strategists can make this same type of "cover ya ass" prediction then so can I. I just don't get paid as much for it though.
Though I respect Barton Biggs, I object to calling him a spokesperson for the bear ase. He is a managing director at Morgan Stuckup, which is one of the great enablers and dependents of the manic bull market

In 1929, a very large percentage of the investing public got creamed while a tiny
percentage quietly bought up assets for peanuts.
Unforunately for them, those that held these assets much into 1930 got slowly creamed into 1932.
What will the next crash bring? The hardest thing will be to distinguish the great buying opportunity from the worst trap of our lifetimes.
In a speech yesterday at the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative think-tank, former U.S. Defense Secretary Michael Portillo warned that European monteary union and a unifed European foreign policy will erode the Amerian alliance with Europe. He said that a united Europe will benefit neither global security nor free trade saying that its future foreign policy could lead to the emergence of a bloc in opposition to the U.S. He said, "What I really want is for a debate to emerge in the U.S. about what the European movement is really about. Americans essentially are comitted to global free trade, while many in Europe are not. And I think they need to be careful about whether a common foreign policy in Europe might lead to a silencing of the British view, the emergence of a consensus to do nothing, and the emergence of a distinct view that there was a third way, a new and positively anti-American way."
The Dawn of the U.S. Bear Market:
And the bubble is spreading to other assets. Property transaction volumes have soared. "Real" house-price inflation has jumped to historic highs too.
ANALYSIS--Fed won't up rates until inflation perks
By Isabelle Clary
NEW YORK, May 27 ( Reuters ) - Having kept monetary policy steady for 14 months, the Federal Reserve has indicated it will hold off raising U.S. interest rates until inflation perks up and makes a credit tightening acceptable to the American public, Fed watchers said.
''The Fed's current policy of forbearance will not last forever, but as long as we have good factors holding down inflation, there are good reasons for the Fed to hold its current position,'' said former Fed Vice Chairman Alan Blinder of an even-keeled Fed policy marked by a single, 25-basis-point rate hike in more than three years.
The notion that inflation luck will eventually run out was very much debated at the Federal Open Market Committee ( FOMC ) March 31 meeting.
''Members commented on the persistence of unusually favorable economic conditions, characterized by strong growth and low inflation,'' the minutes of that meeting, the last on public record, said. ''But a number questioned how long these conditions might last without a policy adjustment.''
One reason the FOMC fears the inflation luck may run out is rapid growth ''adding to pressures on labor.''
''I don't believe the Fed ever deliberately set out to push the unemployment rate below 5.5 percent and certainly not to 4.3 percent. It is something that just happened,'' said now a professor of economics at Princeton University.
''The question becomes 'Do you try to undo this ( low jobless rate ) right away or do you let it roll?''' asked Blinder, who also is the vice chairman of the G7 Group think-tank.
The Fed signaled its caution against wage inflation when it introduced a tightening bias in July 1996 as the U.S. jobless rate fell to 5.50 percent, below the 5.75-percent threshold a school of Keynesian economists -- some of whom are policymakers -- believe to be inflationary.
The Fed acted just once on that bias, tightening in March 1997 as rapid growth creating more jobs than any other post-World War II expansion surprisingly went hand in hand with falling inflation.
Fed Vice Chair Alice Rivlin stated earlier this month the Fed would have hiked rates late in 1997 had it not been for the Asia crisis, a view echoed by other Fed officials.
''It's the recognition of a unique development, the Asian crisis. You would not be tightening into that,'' said Stephen Axilrod, a former Fed Board staff director for international affairs.
Axilrod, now an independent consultant, said the Asian crisis, while transitory in nature, should unfold for months to come and curb prices. If other Asian economies were to be engulfed in the turmoil, this could have a much longer impact on the U.S. economy, the former Fed official added.
Axilrod, a key figure in the Plaza Accord that helped rein in a lofty dollar, said the Fed's inaction amounted to the ''acknowledgment of disinflationary forces in the global economy, including in the United States where ... it is very unusual to see ( declining inflation ) that late in an expansion.''
''I think people at the Fed have been quite surprised at the disinflationary trend in prices. They recognized it, and in effect, got a bit of tightening in that disinflationary environment,'' Axilrod added. ''The real interest rates are reasonably high by historical circumstances.''
Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan made the same point about real or inflation-adjusted rates to explain the absence of policy changes in the past year.
The funds rate stands at 5.50 percent or 50 basis points below the peak of the prior tightening cycle ended in 1995. In real terms, the funds rate is as restrictive at it was at the end of the 1994 tightening cycle or at about 340 basis points over the core Consumer Price Index.
''Fundamentally, it ( absence of Fed tightening ) reflects the instinct of Greenspan, because he believes there is no inflation with a lot of productivity improvement and a strong dollar,'' Axilrod concluded.
-- The Fed kicked off a protracted easing cycle in February 1989, ultimately lowering the funds rate from 9.75 percent to 3.0 percent in July 1992 as the U.S. economy struggled with banking problems, corporate restructuring and the bursting of a real estate bubble.
-- The Fed began a rapid-fire preemptive tightening cycle, doubling the funds rate level to 6.0 percent in just a year, from February 1994 to February 1995.
-- The Fed eased slowly between July 1995 and January 1996, bringing the funds rate to 5.25 percent as U.S. growth gave signs of weakness after the quick tightening episode.
-- The Fed took what it called a ''prudent'' anti-inflation step, pushing the funds rate back to 5.50 percent in March 1997.
FWIW, I was in a large coin/precious metals shop today, and asked them for their take on the retail gold market, bullion coins and etc.
When gold first fell below $300 there was a lot of interest and buying activity. Now that this price area has been visited several times, interest has waned. They don't expect a pickup until prices either go lower, or start to move well above current levels.
I heard two different money managers today say that the greenback has replaced gold as the world safe haven currency.

That is very scary when you consider how easy it is to fabricate $ either with a copy machine or even electronicaaly....Gold is a tad bit harder to do that with...
Being in love with the $ is akin to a modern marriage...."we're in love till something better comes along."

Mr. Armstrong also said something else I found very interesting. He said that many who are interested in gold have wondered why POG hasn't responded to the increase in money supply. Where did all that money go? He says it went to Japan, and that they now have 9 trillion in savings, which is about to be freed under the "big bang." He expects 3 trillion to leave Japan over the next few years, much to find it's way into our bond market.
DC Y2K Meeting - Senator Bennett, on Greenspan
'But on to the meeting. Senator Robert F. Bennett ( R Utah ) Senate Financial
Services & Banking Committee, expected to be appointed head of the yet to be
announced Senate Y2K Committee.
Senator Bennett was entertaining, had a clear vision of the Y2K problem, spoke
for an hour and a half on the problem from the government's perspective.
Sound bites -
A year ago, there were no Y2K compliant ATMs, now a few percent of the ATMs
are Y2K compliant.
We cannot solve all problems in time ( about banking ) We must keep the checks clearing, keep the money available.
( about NCUA ) There will be credit unions that go bankrupt.
( about people ) Alan Greenspan is a believer. Arthur Levitt calls him in a cold sweat. He is watching Ed Yardeni ratchet up his estimate from 30%, 35%, 40%, 60% and believes that we're in for a rocky road. Bob Rubin and the IMF are on board.
Triage, mission critical v. non-mission critical. Have contingencies in place.
What are your back up plans. Gas, water, power, communications. We have a
major problem. This is like World War II. And through it all, through the
sense of urgency, there was evidence of a sharp mind, moving the pieces into
place to create a solution; optimistic but remaining pragmatic.
Art Bell had a guest on last night that talked about the y2k problem. One of his scenarios was this: Because the railroads according to him would not be y2k compliant, they would have to be halted to avoid a train wreck. And because many cities rely on coal ( some 3 trainloads full a day for some cities ) for their electricity many cities would be facing electricity outages.
The railroads not being y2k compliant I would see as a major problem.

(Thu May 28 1998 01:44 - ID#257148)
Greeting fro Teddo
I have just received snail mail ( by air ) from Ted@Swans_Island. He asked me to pass it on...

The letter was sent on his 13th day on the Island, May 20. He enclosed a marvellous panoramic view from his house site, cutting and pasting several photos together and mounting them on a piece of cardboard. From the vraic covered rocks below the site, the Atlantic ocean stretches in white-horse capped green and blue hues out several hundred meters to a large flat island in the centre of the vista, I guess this is Long island. There are two smaller islands off to the left and you can just see a small part of one more island off to the right. It is a very beautiful panorama.

In Teds words

This place, especially our property is unbelievable!! And the site here is much better than Id remembered it from my brief visit last year.

It took three days of extreme effort from sunrise to sunset to chainsaw his driveway and house site. By the time he had finished this and dragging all the brush away his forearms were swollen and painful. On the day he wrote the letter to me, 10 days after hed finished, the pain was finally subsiding. ( He reminds himself that he has to learn to pace himself ) The foundations are being built now.

He has to leave his rental property on the other side of the island on 6/5 and the masonry of the foundations of his paradise house are expected to be finished on 6/10. He reckons itll take him until about 6/30 ( which coincidentally is the final date for my bet with Auric re the Great Spike Down of *gold* ) to get the basement into habitable shape. From 6/5 until he moves in to the basement our Teddo will be camping out under the stars.

His garden is already started

Teddo says he must really be sick as hes missing kitco, and regrets that it might be a while till he returns to cyber-space.

He sends his regards and thanks to all those who have wished him & his wife well.

( PS he liked the pots of New Zealand Honey that landed on Swans Island by UFO )

If anyone has any messages for him, please post them and Ill pass them on.

John Disney__A
(Thu May 28 1998 02:01 - ID#24135)
The Ultimate Indicator
To All
The turning point in gold will come.
.... When Farfel shuts up... and that
may NEVER BE..

(Thu May 28 1998 02:01 - ID#369174)
Thanks for sharing the URL for the search engine. I'm too slow to figure out how to work it, tho' Thanks for the kindness.

(Thu May 28 1998 02:05 - ID#373284)

(Thu May 28 1998 02:06 - ID#257148)
wise guys


F* may be a job for the kitco commando unit before or after the raid on Ft Knox.


(Thu May 28 1998 02:08 - ID#340302)
@ALL...the most important post you will read concerning...'s future direction is A.GOOSE's 00:36.

It's happening. Sit back and enjoy.



(Thu May 28 1998 02:15 - ID#287186)
Legal considerations for embedded systems. CYA

(Thu May 28 1998 02:18 - ID#410215)
..... @ALL...the most important post you will read concerning .....'s future direction is farfel's 02:08

It's happening. Sit back and enjoy.


(Thu May 28 1998 02:23 - ID#335184)
Sharefin & Preacher
Steve Kaplan has moved to moderately bullish, short term on Au !
He also says AU will bottom tomorrow.
Do you concur or do you think we're done for three or four more rungs down the inferno ?
A Goose , does this purchase on the comex mean we move to DEFCON 4 or is this typical of any action you've seen before ?

As Always I Remain,



Just when I think it's safe to snozzle off to bed, you go & post all those Tweenkies for my brain !
I'll have a suger high if I read them all before my warm milk !
Thanks as always, Y.O.S.

(Thu May 28 1998 02:25 - ID#340302)
@ALL...this article says it all about gold's intrinsic value...
...Russia is ready to jettison just about every asset it has ( from U.S. dollars to state oil ) before it sells an ounce of gold. Unfortunately, Rubin and the IMF will probably find it an impossible task to talk Russia into selling gold before U.S. dollars ( as they succeeded in doing with Korea, Thailand, etc. ) It's that old native Russian distrust of America that will never disappear, a lingering vestige of the Cold War.

Moreover, it is raising interest rates through the roof in order to defend the Ruble. As I have said previously, these types of global interest rate hikes are inevitable as countries attempt to preclude capital outflows and defend their domestic currencies. THE NET RESULT:


Stagflation is very, very good for gold and silver!!



May 28, 1998

Moscow Attempts Drastic Measures to Save


MOSCOW -- As Russia's financial markets teetered on the brink of collapse, Moscow mounted a drastic effort Wednesday to preserve the value of its currency and stem the exodus of foreign investors.

In a quick series of steps to address the new Russian government's most serious economic crisis, officials tripled interest rates, announced that they would be willing to accept a far lower price for the sell-off of Russia's last big oil company, and appealed for support from the International Monetary Fund.

"This will become a cold shower on those who are counting on the weakness of the government and the Bank of Russia," said Sergei Dubinin, the head of the Russian central bank.

All week, Russia's financial markets have been under siege as fears have mounted among investors and U.S. officials that the economic turmoil in Asia would spread to Russia.

The Moscow stock market is now the world's worst-performing market, off more than 50 percent this year; bond prices are declining and efforts to boost the ruble by buying up the currency on the open market have cost more than $1 billion over the past week, from a cash reserve that is alarmingly low.

The swoon in the markets has also turned into a profound political crisis here and has become a major worry for U.S. policy-makers who have thrown their support behind President Boris Yeltsin's reform government.

Yeltsin has staked the credibility of his new team on defending the value of the ruble, which for ordinary Russians is the ultimate barometer of the nation's economic and political health.

The value of the ruble determines what many everyday staples cost. A failure to stabilize the currency could lead to a devaluation and a chain reaction of debt problems for the Russian government, bank failures, inflation and political unrest.

If ordinary Russians joined the foreign investors who are exchanging their rubles for dollars, it would be extremely difficult for the central bank to maintain the current ruble-dollar exchange rates.

Against a backdrop of a currency crisis in Indonesia that led to the resignation last week of President Suharto, and a widespread belief that Asia's economic troubles are far from over, nervous investors are increasingly shunning markets in developing countries like Russia.

On Wednesday those jitters had an effect all over the world as stock markets from Hong Kong to Frankfurt and from London to New York fell.

In Russia, "the market has crashed," said Mark Mobius, money manager for Templeton Worldwide Inc. "We are seeing a so-called meltdown."

Most analysts agree that Yeltsin's new young prime minister, Sergei Kiriyenko, has worked hard to reduce the nation's budget deficit with a series of proposed spending cuts, though tax collection remains a major problem.

Now, the focus of the crisis is the ruble and the reserves that the central bank has on hand to boost its value.

On Wednesday, the bank disclosed that its reserves have dwindled to about $14 billion. However, about $4.5 billion of those reserves are in gold and are not readily available to spend to prop up the currency.

Last October, by comparison, the central bank's reserves were about $23 billion.

As the reserves have shrunk, foreign investors have become increasingly worried that the government would be forced to devalue the currency.

There are some additional sources of funds -- though they may be far too modest to put out the financial fire. The International Monetary Fund is expected shortly to approve the next $700 million disbursement of its $10 billion loan. So far Russia has received $5.2 billion of the three-year loan. Russia may also be able to obtain financing through commercial banks.

"We have some proposals from the biggest private banks," Oleg Vyugin, the deputy finance minister, said Wednesday in an interview. "We have to consider whether that would be useful or not."

Also, the government hopes to press ahead with the auction of state property. Kiriyenko canceled the sale of Rosneft, the big oil company, after the government failed to receive a single bid by the Tuesday deadline.

But on Wednesday, Russian officials said that a new auction would be quickly arranged with an asking price of $1.6 to $1.7 billion instead of $2.1 billion, a cut of more than 19 percent to 24 percent. The government said it hopes to announce a winner by the middle of next month.

Still, a growing chorus of Russian officials and foreign investors think a large bailout, akin to the rescue packages for Indonesia and South Korea, may be required.

"Russia desperately needs some kind of standby facility," said Marc Holtzman, the president of corporate finance for ABN AMRO, a major Dutch bank. "The Russian government has done a very commendable job to date. The IMF has to take some decisive action."

Kiriyenko has also talked about the need for additional assistance from the monetary fund to help it restructure its debts.

Kiriyenko spoke by telephone Wednesday night with Michel Camdessus, the fund's managing director, who is attending a conference in Kyrgyzstan.

After that conversation, the fund's chief Russian specialist, John Odling-Smee, was dispatched to Moscow. But the fund tried to play down the seriousness of the Russian financial situation and it was unclear whether it would be willing to provide more aid.

"Contrary to what markets and commentators are imagining, this is not a crisis," Camdessus said. "This is not a major development."

The perception in Moscow, however, was very different. Russia's stock market, which was already seriously depressed, plummeted more than 10 percent Wednesday.

Meanwhile, interest rates on Russian Treasury bills have soared to almost 90 percent, as the central bank tries to attract investors to buy the securities. Russia depends heavily on the sale of Treasury bills to finance its budget deficit.

The latest financial shocks reflect investors' anxiety over emerging markets, declining world oil prices and Russia's difficult negotiations with the monetary fund. But they were also sparked by the government's failure on Tuesday to receive any bids for Rosneft, a development that many investors took as a vote of no confidence in the Russian economy.

The most dramatic increase came Wednesday when the central bank tripled its refinancing rate, an interest rate it charges on loans to banks, to 150 percent from 50 percent.

Boosting that rate, in effect, encourages investors to hold rubles and discourages investors who have rubles from selling them for dollars.

Yeltsin plans to meet with Kiriyenko, Dubinin, and his finance minister on Thursday. Russian officials said that the Kremlin was weighing various steps, including a presidential speech, to try to calm the markets.

Meanwhile, Yeltsin's foes sought to exploit the financial crisis. Gennady Zyuganov, the communist leader, describe the financial crunch as a "national catastrophe."

Before he left for Moscow, Odling-Smee, the expert at the monetary fund insisted that there was no need to devalue the ruble.

"There is no objective case for devaluing the ruble in terms of Russia's competitiveness or exports and the likely medium- to long-term flows of capital," Odling-Smee said.

(Thu May 28 1998 02:26 - ID#207145)
yen and yang of inflation

what the hell is going on here? There is no inflation. Thereis deflation. No, theres wage inflation. deflation in Asia. inflated markets..The fed will raise rates soon due to inflated labor mkts.,CRB index tanking. How f*cked up can it get????????

(Thu May 28 1998 02:32 - ID#340302)
@GOLLUM...where did you come from?
...your last night's posts 22:16 and 23:39 are some of the best posts I've read on this Forum in a long time.

Great analyses!



(Thu May 28 1998 02:46 - ID#257148)
The mind of the mnemonist
pyramid your Wed May 27 1998 20:39

I'll do it for you. post your email and I'll get back to you.

(Thu May 28 1998 02:46 - ID#207145)
why do i get the distinct feeling that the big boys are rubbing vasseline on our burs in preparation for an omnious impending event. Hold onto
your wallets for a game of musical chairs, if your dumb enough to play THE DIP.

(Thu May 28 1998 02:50 - ID#335184)
Sharefin - Peter Grandich & "Dawn of Bear" by David Rock @ 01:42
Wonderful insights to coming Au Vs Dow battle !
The PPT was in full throttle swinging 150 points in 45 min.
Then ramping S&P futures at both preopening & close. Truly spectacular.

Oleman says we break 1240 before 1080 & that it all comes to a miserable end by Labor Day. I wonder why he thinks the rigged game must end then ?
Why can't the game go on from there ? If Grandich is right, there is no way to be profitable in Au Prior to the big break or even to be in Au in the aftermath of an equities blow off! On the other hand, Rock makes a convincing case for the inevitabillity of the equities Bear coming soon.

The mermaid calls, can't think or spell or remember why i posted....drubzzzzzzzzzz



(Thu May 28 1998 02:56 - ID#207145)
everything is so cheap. Yeah, right.
gold is so cheap, yeah right. I was tempted, so I bought Harmony today, yeah, right. How cheap will it be in two weeks, or three. It takes time to change bull market habits, psychology. Slowly the bear will form. but first it must convince us all that playing dips is beyond our expertise. For bull markets would have us believe we are nifty traders all. This is not realistic.Acertain haughtyness comes with bull markets. Pride goes
before the fall. then we will realize we weren't brilliant. After the pickpocket comes.

dung beetle
(Thu May 28 1998 02:59 - ID#272234)
RJ...That apparently nonsensical gibberish was supposed to be ...
a picture of a lioness in a crouched position, ready to pounce. It looked rather authentic on the message form but somehow got distorted during the posting procedure.

(Thu May 28 1998 03:00 - ID#240170)
retired soldier
You and your wife are invited for tea when you are in Israel. COntact me my email:

(Thu May 28 1998 03:05 - ID#372276)
Squirrel:--Intell gathering
The link I provided recently from bbfisher's post on the KRY thread was the executive order that authorized FEMA in case of emergency. Authorization was given to organize labour units for the requisition of skilled labour w/o compensation.

(Thu May 28 1998 03:05 - ID#255151)
Humourous Story

Oz fishing boat captain throws crewman to the sharks for not catching enough fish.

(Thu May 28 1998 03:10 - ID#207145)
dollar cost averaging!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!wait a minute................

maybe the dumbest of investment procedures is the way to go afterall.That would solve the dilemma of what transpires over the next 5 years. Maybe just leaving, and staying away from any market for 3 years...i believe playing the market will be excruciatig. extremely difficult.Bill Clinton is watching Wall Street, not Ken Star. The Street is no Gingritch.

(Thu May 28 1998 03:17 - ID#410215)
..... Dung Beetle .....

I saw the lioness

I liked it


(Thu May 28 1998 03:33 - ID#240170)
retired soldier
wrong email -

Sorry about that.

(Thu May 28 1998 03:39 - ID#329186)
Can anyone explain to me how the russians can go for 6 to 9 months without being paid ? this statement is in the news fairly often however I cannot imagine many in the UK,US would survive going 9 weeks without pay even if the state provides housing,heating they still need other things?

Also with their existing financial problems it has to be unlikley that anything is ear marked for Y2K the mind boggles not just for the missiles ~ but what if power is cut off from the Rusting out of service Nucliar SUBs lying in Murmansk.

Go gold then give it to the swiss for a place in a fall out shelter ?

(Thu May 28 1998 03:39 - ID#284255)
I can't see gold doing anything good till the $US and Dow give way.

You could see them hit the prem at 1:45pm when it slipped to -1 and then was ramped upwards.
The tick responded and then started to weaken at 2:30 when the prem was boosted again.

Is this the bottom before the next rally?
Market internals were disgusting.
New highs/lows, advancers/decliners and up/down volume were all abysmal.
The unsuing rally was not broad based but very much contained to the big market caps.
The ones with the heaviest weightings with-in the indices.

Seems more like trying to prop up the indices than the basing of the fall and the beginning of a new rally.

If they had not pushed these few stocks higher then the indices would have shown that the US was selling, leading to further global weakness.

This they do not want.
Therefore that is what they do.
It will be interesting to watch the next few days to see if the rally will become broad based or if it was a falsely induced one.

I believe that the next few days will be make or break in establishing a new rally.
A pivotal point - to steer the new direction of these markets.
They must break the fear component to induce the dippies to buy.
Lose this one and they have lost the battle.

Glad it was not I who pushed the luckless deckie overboard.
Though god knows I have been sorely tempted at times.
And I know of the sharks that are mentioned.
He was a lucky chap.
I have seen the schoolie sharks thick enough to walk upon.
And ravenous to take on a school of pirahna.

(Thu May 28 1998 04:32 - ID#284255)
Kudos from within
Surely the most precious thing
Discovered to us
With the space programme
Is the knowledge
Certain and clear
That neither Heaven nor Hell
Have place out there.

The Carpenter
Taught clearly
That Heaven and Hell
Our peace or deep unrest
Are states of mind
Within each self expressed.

We should, surely then
Learn from Him
To access the Father
And have our heaven here
Our peace and strength

(Thu May 28 1998 04:41 - ID#255151)
Ringing A Bell? (Thanks to Leland for finding this site

Max Baer, aka Jethro Bodine, is looking to open a casino in Reno. The staff would be dressed as members of the Clampett family and big screen monitors would continuously show reruns of all 274 episodes of The Beverly Hillbillies. Scroll down the list of odd news items.

(Thu May 28 1998 04:53 - ID#255151)
Here's a Good One

They had to close down this high school in Ohio when someone released hundreds of giant Madagascar hissing cockroaches! Took 'em all day to exterminate them. It's on the list at AM News Abuse, the URL listed in previous post.

(Thu May 28 1998 05:07 - ID#284255)
Yeltsin promises no financial crash - agencies
Dismal data underscores gloom over Japan's economy
India denies plans to attack N-sites in Pakistan

(Thu May 28 1998 05:59 - ID#252391)
Does anybody believe does any body care..
that as Goose has reported some hours ago that the Comex eligble stocks have fallen 57% in one day. For Farfel's and everybody else's sake I'll check it out myself.

(Thu May 28 1998 06:03 - ID#284255)
Yeltsin says will call foreign leaders over crisis
``I am calling presidents today, Clinton, Kohl and so on, so that they express confidence in us,'' he said in televised comments, making clear he would not be seeking financial aid from them.

``We now do not need anything but for them to express confidence that the president of Russia and the government can cope with the situation,'' Yeltsin said.

(Thu May 28 1998 06:04 - ID#43349)
Why, thank you, kind sir.

There are great similarities between the way
the Fed is frozen in place today and the way
it did nothing while the bubble of 29 grew.
Indeed the roaring 90's are much like the
20's in general.

Back in the early 1900's the US economy was
largely agricultural. Tons of cotton among
other things were sold overseas. Because of
European conditions there was a price runup
in commodities right after WW I. Farmers did
well. In a year or two prices fell again.

Farmers, expecting their newly found prosperity
to last forever had gone out and borrowed more
money from the banks to fix up the place, buy
more property, new traxtors, etc.

When prices fell back to their old levels, farmers
went back to doing as poorly as they had been, but
now they were overextended to the banks.

Droughts and dust bowls didn't help just as El Nino
messes things up today.

Farms started to fail and forclosures to rise as 29

Meanwhile, businesses had done well. They had just
sold a lot of paint and tractors and the banks had
secured a lot of new loans. They had some cash to
invest but farming had slowed down. So they began
to dabble in the stock market. Slowly at first
and then as prices started to rise and there was
no other game in town, more quickly.

The bubble began to grow, but the Fed was stuck.
Cool things off and the farmers would be in even
more trouble. Heat things up and induce inflation.

Today we have manufacturing grinding to a halt as
their overseas customers go down the tubes but the
market is enthusiastic at the lack of inflation.

There was no inflation back then, either. I heard
some blame the depression on the great stock market
crash of 1929, but by the time of the crash the
depression was already well under way in the farming
and business sectors.

And most of the people who lost money in the market
back then, didn't lose it in 29 but rather when
they tried to "buy the dip" in 30. They had seen
much apparent wealth made in the market but prices
had been too high. When the crash came suddenly shares
which had been hundreds or thousands were now
affordable and they jumped in figuring another boat
was about to leave the harbor and, by God, they
weren't going to miss this one. So in late 30
and 31 there was a prettty good rally just before
the final bottom in 32-33 that took sixty years to

So now we approach the new millineum....

(Thu May 28 1998 06:10 - ID#57232)
Gold bug Tsunami to begin after US market corrects? Cat woke me up early.
sharefin: The 'fiat' currency, anti-gold forces are stronger than I imagined. Now we have a situation of dwindling ( certain ) commodities -- as per A. Gooses post this AM -- but the spot commodity price index is plummeting. Wonder where all that gold went on the Comex? We have big time trouble in Russia, with a Pakistan/India crisis near the boiling point. Japan is as close to the financial brink as a country can get. And Israel/Palestine are moving away from any agreement, with a 'secret' agreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Also, China is selling nerve gas and other weapons of mass destruction to Iran. The Chinese will not get what they think they will get from their destabilizing actions, but we are not much better with our exportation of nuclear technology.

But -- the rest of the world is not concerned, and our fledgling gold/gold stock rally barely has a pulse. Even without a major market correction. Not much of a gold bug Tsunami, is it? It is more like the water is still receeding. My intuitive sense on this is the longer it takes for the next wave to rise, the bigger the Tsunami will be when it finally comes. There are just too many cyclic patterns bullish for gold converging over the next few years.

I think you also understand something else -- that I do as well. And -- that is that gold will not give us the security that we wish it will. But it will help. The real security that we must grasp comes from inside each of us. As you say, we all create our own heaven and hell within ourselves. The next 10-15 years will not be easy. To reach the millenium and the 1000 or so years of world peace that Nostradamus predicts, we ( as the human race ) will have to go through some very hard times. We all must look to ourselves -- and the others we love -- and our friends -- to find the inner strength that we will alll need.

I believe the human race will touch the stars -- but I never believed that it would be such a challenge for us. Perhaps that also is a test of our mettle and worthiness that we must pass. I guess no one said it would be easy to bite that fruit of knowledge, and I also guess that we are not the only intelligent species in the universe to go through this ultimate test by fire. But -- I also believe ( with some small comfort ) that we are not alone.

It would be nice if our guardians ( or whatever? ) we have watching over us would be a bit more obvious --- but I guess we must show our own worthiness.

It is hard when you see the future slowly unfolding. But, on the other hand, I would not wish to have the forseeing capability of Nostradmus. Would you?

(Thu May 28 1998 06:14 - ID#27341)
Jims- i,v been waiting for someone to say that,

(Thu May 28 1998 06:19 - ID#411331)
@ A. Goose: Your post re. over half of the COMEX eligible gold stockpiles bought in one day is
certainly encouraging. But can't the banks holding these stocks simply trot over to the LBME and buy replacement bullion? Surely 50 million $ is a cheap price to pay to maintain the illusion that the world is awash in gold. The COMEX is such a tiny sideshow compared to the LBME. I am always amazed at how much the COMEX spot price affects the world gold market. Talk about the tail wagging the dog! Besides the COMEX is a paper market. Many paper gold certificates may have been issued for a single oz of gold. I often wonder if the same oz of gold is being sold by several people at the same time on COMEX!

(Thu May 28 1998 06:20 - ID#253418)
Gold Stocks
There was a 172,000 movement in gold from elligible stocks to registered
stocks at the Scotia Modica ( sp? ) depository and a 1% overall reduction in stocks. As I understand the difference, the registered variety of stocks are not available for delivery as they have a registered owner who has full title to them.

This indeed may be signinficant in view of the forth coming delivery period of the June contrat, but based on change in the price of gold sionce release of the numbers nobody seems to notice, yet.

Again thanks to Goose for keeping us posted.

(Thu May 28 1998 06:21 - ID#286279)
Either ICQ or my ISP disconnected while I slept. I hope that everyone had packed up and gone home by the time this occurred, sorry if it happened while anyone was chatting.

(Thu May 28 1998 06:25 - ID#57232)
Disappearing commodities -- A disturbing thought!
A. Goose, all: What would you do if a foreign country wanted something in exchange for the US dollars that they had? You must give them something that has hard asset value, but you can't touch Fort Knox. How about commodities? Perhaps the commodity hedge fund operators have been hoodwinked.

I know that's a crazy idea. Farfel -- you are constantly bullish on gold, despite our current bearish realities. I do agree with you that gold will eventually rally -- but I intend to have some money left when it does.

Why don't you use those formidable resources of yours to see if Fort Knox really does have the gold we are told it has?

(Thu May 28 1998 06:39 - ID#230376)
Ruble = rubble....... NOT !

who's buying/backing ?

(Thu May 28 1998 06:44 - ID#43349)
disappearing act
If the past is any guide, as the worldwide
crises continues, the big money is quietly
getting out.

Many people still feel like they have the
money they think their stocks are worth, their
hoard for the retirement years, but they have
already handed over the cash.

The insiders have already grabbed the lifeboats,
before most even know we've hit an iceberg.

Most have gone to cash, but a few like Buffet
understand that cash itself can be relatively
worthless in a truly serious crises such as a

The fact that Comex stocks have quietly left the
building indicates we are in for another party

The crises can not end untill the dollar devalues.
Devaluing dollars means cash is declining in value.
The big guys, in getting out of cash, will go for
real assets. Inflation will get here in a rush,
indeed it has to before foreign economies can get
back on track.

The last time it took another World War.....

(Thu May 28 1998 06:49 - ID#284255)
What spooked the spoos? - 6 point drop an hour ago.
European indices opened on a strong rebound
But have quickly reversed their gains.
Buying or selling?
Twice now in the last few days have I seen major reversals in European indices.

Seems as though the dippies aren't so confidant this time.

The gold tsunami you speak of is but a sparkle in our eyes.
Will it be 3 or 5 or 10 years till maturity?

But the equity tsunami is fully matured.
And this has taken many years.

I find it hard to keep a long term perspective within my sights.
While trying to decipher the day to day fluctuations.

I have been to FNW and can't find the comex stockpiles article.
But they do have a revised gold stockpile post.
Perhaps there has been a data slipup.
Like we see on Bart's silver prices.

(Thu May 28 1998 06:49 - ID#286199)
Goldfields news
May 27, 1998
Australia's Goldfields Closes Out Gold Hedges For A$16.2M

Dow Jones Newswires

SYDNEY -- Goldfields Ltd. ( A.GOL ) , an Australian gold mining concern, Thursday said it has closed out forward gold hedging positions related to the company's stockpiles to raise A$16.2 million.

Profit from the transaction will be largely offset by abnormal writedowns on stock values, it said. The proceeds will be used to reduce debt.

Goldfields is 56%-owned by Australia's RGC Ltd.

Around 0310 GMT, shares in Goldfields are off 3 cents at A$1.85. The broader market is up 0.2%.

(Thu May 28 1998 06:55 - ID#286199)
India and Silver demand (Who knows?)
May 27, 1998
India's Silver Demand Hard To Discern Given Incomplete Data

Dow Jones Newswires

NEW YORK -- The outlook for silver prices is clouded by a lack of definitive information about demand in India, the world's largest import market, and analysts are drawing opposite conclusions from the figures that are available.

Indian demand for silver is traditionally price-sensitive, and all the analysts interviewed for this story agreed that higher prices in the first quarter initially hampered its imports.

Silver futures on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange hit a nine-and-a-half-year high of $7.50 an ounce on Feb. 6.

However, while some say its buying remains much reduced, others contend
that India's demand has rebounded. Different analysts get data from
different sources, and don't reveal their methods. The picture has been made murkier by a liberalization of imports in India, which some analysts say has reduced the importance of Dubai as an import point, and thereby reduced the significance of data which show the amounts of silver being exported to India from Dubai.

Ted Arnold, metals specialist with Merrill Lynch in London, cited the latest precious metals monitor report from CRU International, an industry research group based in London. That showed India's silver imports in the first quarter of this year at only 220 metric tons, compared with 1,400 tons in the first quarter of 1997.

The fall was in response to an average spot London price of $6.31 per troy ounce for the first quarter of 1998, up from the $5.02-ounce average during the same period in 1997, Arnold said. "This year we'll be lucky if India imports 1,200 tons," he added.

But CPM Group, a precious metals and commodities research and consulting
group in New York, wrote in a report titled "The Truth About Silver In India" that "although Indian silver demand did decline once prices advanced past the $5 and $6 resistance levels in the second half of 1997, demand didn't remain depressed for long."

CPM Group argues that India initially scaled back buying of silver in October 1997 when prices began rising, but that Indian consumers had become accustomed to the higher prices by November.

Joe Rosta, research director at CPM, said the group's most up-to-date figures indicate that India imported about 413.63 metric tons of silver during the first quarter of 1998.

Rosta's figures show that the country bought a larger amount of material each month, starting with 40.43 tons in January, 136.84 tons in February and 239.47 tons in March. Additionally, Rosta said preliminary data indicate that the country imported more than 404.3 tons in April.

Meanwhile, Philip Klapwijk, principal analyst at research company Gold Fields Mineral Services Ltd. in London contends that imports into India during the first quarter of 1998 totaled 311 metric tons.

He linked the lower imports to the higher price of silver, and said the lower price of gold also encouraged some substitution of gold for silver. However, he said silver imports began picking up in March. "It's due to the fact that the price had come off a bit," Klapwijk said. "People
will adapt to a new price reality, and it won't necessarily have to fall to where it was before for them to start buying."

Yet another set of figures, collected by trade group, The Bullion Association, from Indian customs and Reserve Bank of India, show that only 110 tons of silver was imported during the first quarter of 1998, compared with 589 tons during the first quarter of 1997.

M.L. Damani, president of the Bombay Bullion Association, tied the fall in silver imports to higher prices and a weaker Indian rupee. Because silver is priced in dollars, it becomes more expensive to Indians as the rupee falls against the dollar.

Damani pointed out that during the first quarter of 1997, importers paid an average price of 7,200 rupees for one kilogram of silver, whereas now they are paying an average of 8,570 rupees. However, Damani is projecting that more silver, as much as 500 metric tons, will be imported during the second quarter this year because silver prices have been coming down since March. Still, his estimate is lower than the 1,396 tons imported during the second quarter of 1997.

Dubai's role is a major reason why analysts' estimates of India's silver
imports vary so widely. Official trade data show that the amount of silver leaving Dubai for India during the first quarter of 1998 fell by 59% to 48.1 metric tons when compared with the same time period in 1997.

According to some analysts, Dubai's importance as a conduit for India's
imports of precious metals has diminished because of last October's
deregulation measures. Three state-run trading companies and eight banks were allowed to start importing gold and silver to supply the entire domestic market, whereas before they could only import gold and silver to be made into jewelry for export.

"Last year, the bulk of the silver ( imported into India ) came through
Dubai, but this year it's not. Now it's being directly shipped from London, Zurich and whatever other point," said CPM's Rosta. "Also, the trade has moved out of Bombay, so anyone measuring stuff in terms of Dubai and Bombay will get a distorted picture."

One London-based analyst said that while Indian demand is at best flat,
Dubai's importance has dimmed, and that its export figures could be
"misleading" when trying to measure Indian demand for silver. "Because of
the liberalization, Dubai might not be as key of an indicator as it was before," he said.

However, Kamal Naqvi, precious metals analyst at Maquarie Bank in London, said he still views the Dubai figures as a good indicator of India's silver demand.

"The Dubai numbers give an indication of what has been happening. The people I've spoken to over the last few months indicate that imports have been very low. The Dubai figure partly reflects a change in the structure of the bullion market, but still I think they indicated we are looking at a very large fall in silver imports overall into India," Naqvi said.

Merrill Lynch's Arnold said "Dubai isn't being by-passed." He added that dealers working in Dubai are reporting that demand is subdued.

( Amit Prakash in New Delhi and Ajayya Kumar in Bombay contributed to this
article. )

-By Betsy Dowling; 201-938-2018;

(Thu May 28 1998 06:58 - ID#39857)
Traders of noodles and missiles.

(Thu May 28 1998 06:58 - ID#316193)
Big Rise in Business Failures
This is the sort of news Americans had all but forgotten during
the good years of the 1990s....

(Thu May 28 1998 06:59 - ID#27341)
Gollum- i like the way you think.
Gm, What is going on scares the sh#t out of me.

(Thu May 28 1998 06:59 - ID#242325)
Gollum: Welcome to KITCO! Your posts are making this site considerably more interesting.

Bully Beef
(Thu May 28 1998 07:06 - ID#259282)
So the dow is a cow now?
I think it has lost it's zip. The losses will be slow and painful while all of us little guys figure out our pension mutual funds are worth diddley.Suffering is part of the human condition.Painful slow. No run here boys and girls. Can money be made anywhere in a slow correction? ( Besides slow paint drying theaters? )

(Thu May 28 1998 07:12 - ID#284255)
Global Intra-day charts
You can download this file to your hard drive.
Then use your browser to open it.
Then it can be bookmarked.

You can see the European Indices selling off.

(Thu May 28 1998 07:14 - ID#57232)
sharefin: I think your comment that the COMEX gold shift is due to an accounting error makes sense. The real action for gold and silver is elsewhere.

However, the dwindling COMEX stores may be an indirect indicator of what is happening to gold and silver reserves worldwide. It is also possible that those in the know are making sure that whatever gold and silver they have stored, is actually registered as stored. I am not expert on COMEX, but I would think that one needs to keep accurate records, regardless. Don't want to inadvertently give out gold and silver that actually belongs to someone else -- during the heat of the moment.

(Thu May 28 1998 07:19 - ID#289357)
jims, A. Goose @ COMEX gold stocks
As I recall, the purchase price for all the elligible gold stocks at COMEX was less than $50 MM a month or so ago, and then sombody dumped in a load of gold near the top. Now they have removed it from the elligible category, and the total purchase price for all elligible stock is about where it was before, adjusting for the price of gold.

Is this the beginning of a new trend of gold depletion? The next couple days or weeks should let us know. In any case, somebody with serious money to spend likes gold ( a lot ) and must think the short-term bottom is near. If this IS a short-term bottom, the telling sign would be if they place it back in the elligible stock category when ( if ) the price runs up $10 or $15.

(Thu May 28 1998 07:20 - ID#43185)
one hand clapping
In a world full of central banks there
is no central bank.

(Thu May 28 1998 07:26 - ID#284255)
We will know the truth on their next announcement.
If it is true watch out.
If not then as before.

Some of my personal friends who aren't goldbugs
Are selling their assets and buying lots of gold.

Axed: 44 rail business projects
No rail = no power.
No power = no fixy PC

Mike Sheller
(Thu May 28 1998 07:27 - ID#347447)
PAASF "Reading"
A couple of weeks ago BUFFORD and JTF expressed interest in an astrological look-see at the horoscope of PAASF. I promised to oblige when Bufford provided an incorporation date and location. Sorry for the delay, but life events have been very demanding for Mikey lately.
Here are some brief and humble technical observations. PAASF shareholders get out your calendars...

The Jupiter conjunct PAASF Sun in Mid April did not boost the stock, thus presaging the next period of weakness which has been underway. If Jupiter don't do it, usually nothing does. This failure was a sign of underlying weakness. Short term, the price charts indicate that PAASF is oversold and due to rally on a daily and weekly basis. Gold's current decline below 295 is ominous for the metals generally, but nervy traders could wait a few days and then go into PAASF short term, looking for a small rally. The head and shoulders formation traced between December and today indicates a worst case break below $8 would bring price down even further, possibly to 5 or 6 level. This kind of downside breakout might indicate another wave of PM weakness, with silver giving it up further. But the stock's technicals look like it should hold at 8 and rally soon. Conservative traders may want to see if $8 holds before going long this stock.

Coming astrological aspects ( mark your calendar ) where it might be possible to discern visible effects on company activities or stock price movements are as follows:

Week of July 20, 1998 - July 21, 22 especially - Mars conjunct corporate Ascendant/Moon conjunction

August 12, 13 1998 - Mars conjunct Jupiter in 2nd House ( could be good earnings or income news )

End December/Early Jan 1999 - Mars conjunct corporate Pluto, 5th House ( perhaps some speculative activity on behalf of general public )

1st Week March 1999 - Jupiter conjunct corporate Mercury - ( some kinda company news? )

Late April/Early May 1999 Generally favorable corporate aspects which coincide with a Jupiter conjunction with NYSE Moon ( significator of Silver in NYSE 'scope ) . Could be hilighting a potential period of powerful Silver activity in this time period.

Last, but certainly not least, PAASF fits in with the many gold, silver, and crude oil corporations I have been discovering with significant planets at or around 18 -20 degrees Sagittarius. Pluto gets there in 2003, and trines NYSE Moon ( Silver ) at the same time. This is a once in a lifetime monster aspect for Silver. It is also traditionally a supportive, rather than destructive aspect. The odds are that 2003 will be the eye of a major period of strength in natural resource shares. PAASF will definitely participate as Pluto conjuncts its Neptune at 20 Sagittarius at that time. This could be another MONSTER boom in Silver, as in the early 1970's. All that's required is patience.

(Thu May 28 1998 07:30 - ID#341189)
What goes on in Russia?
Defending the ruble by withdrawing it? Is the dollar going to be Russia's currency? Perhaps it already is.

(Thu May 28 1998 07:32 - ID#43185)
There is another possibility:

When there are a lot of small time
speculators looking for prices to go
up, the local sharks play a game of
shooting the stops. What you do is
take a massive short postion which drops
the price and triggers the sell stops which
you then use to cover the short.

After a while this doesn't work too good
because all the small time speculators get
to thinking the prices are going down and
start taking short postions. So then you
play the game of squeezing the shorts.

But to make that game work really well you first
of all have to quietly deplete the warehouse

These games really are not indicative of long term
trends but just intermediate swings.

(Thu May 28 1998 07:34 - ID#57232)
Gold and Silver - perhaps retrenchment only
All: Experts out there -- please tell me what I am missing. The 1993 gold rally had two distinct phases -- a triple up wave peaking about memorial day, followed by a major retrenchement, followed by another rally. Now -- this time silver is leading the way -- not gold. And - we have had a similar triple up wave in silver, with silver is as scarce as ever. Could it be that we are now completing our retrenchment, and that silver ( and gold ) are about to rally? Dwindling comex stores may be a sign that the smart money is getting positioned, as Silverbaron indicates. This is essentially what APH is saying right now also-- that silver is a bargain again -- and that the odds are in favor of a silver rally soon. Gold will follow, but to a lesser degree.

I am not saying this is the big one -- but it could be enough for us gold bugs. The wild cards on top of this are the conflicting forces of worldwide inflation and deflation, IMHO.


(Thu May 28 1998 07:38 - ID#284255)
Who owns a Compaq?
Compaq blasted over 2000 claim
The problem with Compaq PC's, is that the real-time clock chip does not recognise the date change.

Day by day, more small white lies appear.

(Thu May 28 1998 07:39 - ID#289357)

Phillips AI forecasting website at


Princeton Economics Institute at

( click on Global Market View in menu on left, then click on Worl Metals Market Watch in second menu )

Says spot SILVER MAY BE AT AN IMPORTANT LOW, but is bearish on silver futures, gold spot, gold futures.

(Thu May 28 1998 07:40 - ID#43185)
Earnings are down, business failures are
up, but inflation is under control.

(Thu May 28 1998 07:43 - ID#284255)
Gollum - disappearing act
I wonder how many people have already booked their profits in?
Sold some of their stocks to increase their living standards.
And repurchased the same on margin.

Always thinking their pockets are full.

(Thu May 28 1998 07:43 - ID#289357)

Yes - That's just what I'm afraid of - a shell game, unless there is a REAL depletion of the stockpile.

(Thu May 28 1998 07:43 - ID#347235)
Pakistan sets off 2 nukes!
It should not surprise anyone, but Pakistan has set off 2 nukes this morning. The coward erect has called to scold them. I may be retired but
I am still alert. Even at 340 in the morning. Shalom.

(Thu May 28 1998 07:44 - ID#316193)
You're supposed to put your tongue in cheek when reading
that part.

(Thu May 28 1998 07:44 - ID#57232)
Friends buying gold
sharefin: Your friends listen better than my friends in the USA. Even though gold buying in the US is increasing, only one of my friends is the least bit worried. I convinced him at least to have some cash on hand -- outside the equity markets, even if it was a waste of time to convince him to buy gold.

There is little worry about the US markets in the USA right now -- in the minds of the general public. Take care.

Gianni Dioro__A
(Thu May 28 1998 07:45 - ID#384350)
@Squirrel, mozel et al, Martial Law in the US of A
My buddy who used to be a foot soldier in the UN tells me that soldiers from the former soviet bloc are undergoing training in the US. He tells me that there are mysterious road signs in certain parts of the US. He says that these road signs are markers to aid in the carrying out of certain plans of action, ie rounding up citizens and taking them to detention camps. He says the camps are already in place.

The discussion came up because he said, "I can't see American troops opening fire on their own people."

And I said, "So big deal, you'll just have something like French UN troops keeping the order in the US, and American United Nation troops keeping the order elsewhere."

I'll see if he can go into more detail.

(Thu May 28 1998 07:50 - ID#43185)
There are also a lot of people who feel
safe because they have hedged their
positions, but a hedge is only as good
as the hedgees ability to pay off. If
things go really badly it turns out the
broker and/or the bank is insolvent.

Probably due to having engaged too heavily in
derivatives :- )

(Thu May 28 1998 07:52 - ID#413109)
Yours-aurator ( Greeting fro Teddo ) ID#257148:
Please request his phone #, if he has one.
Give him my best and tell him I'd like to call to say hello
during my upcoming visit this summer.

(Thu May 28 1998 07:55 - ID#43185)
In the USA, the heavens have opened up
and prosperity is raining down. It makes
it hard to see that everything raining down
was sucked up by the whirlwinds of overseas
chaos and blown here by the winds of safe
haven flight.

Something wicked this way comes....

(Thu May 28 1998 07:59 - ID#316193)
Some "Required Reading" While Waiting For The Markets to Open

(Thu May 28 1998 08:00 - ID#187243)
Any ideas on palladium today?

(Thu May 28 1998 08:01 - ID#288369)
@pumping oil to give it away.............
Keep in the back of your mind, and let it drift a bit to the forward each day, that oil will soon bring stark change to the world's economic landscape. It will pollute and lay barren the earnings of the sp500, the russell2000.....the thiefstein10,000....... To believe that oil does not have a monolithic erection left in it's pants is just plum crazy. And the pain will pass from the tired, muscular shoulders of the oil worker to the arses of the financial dweebs. For oil should be changed every 3000 days. now to the office to wait.

(Thu May 28 1998 08:01 - ID#43185)
The Russians are cool cats, man. When
faced with the same sort of difficulties
as the Japanese they RAISED rates. To
astronomical levels. That kept the ruble
from fleeing the country.

Now they defend it from rising too much by
buying it all up and hoarding it all up.

Reminds me of br'er rabbit and the briar patch.

Now everyone wants rubles.

Gutsy man, gutsy.

(Thu May 28 1998 08:01 - ID#289357)

Keep an eye on the gold/silver ratio - if it turns down sharply, the prospects for a serious gold rally in the short term don't look too good, as the specs will again go long silver and short gold. It appears to me that the GSR is about to touch the bottom of its downtrend channel, which sometimes is a point of reversal. You can see this ratio on a chart at

(Thu May 28 1998 08:17 - ID#289357)
Crash Update

The crash update at

is now dropped to -6. Time to move a sizeable chunk of change toward the exits if you haven't already done so.

(Thu May 28 1998 08:26 - ID#341189)
Thank you for trying, but this is all too complicated for my simple hobbit mind. By the way, welcome to Kitco and thanks for your contributions.

(Thu May 28 1998 08:30 - ID#45173)
Gollum & RETIRED SOLDIER: Pakistan sets off 2 nukes this a.m.
The prospect of material prosperity has motivated former enemies around the globe to set aside their differences to join the world economic community in peace to build stable, democratic, capitalist societies in these past 20 years. The USSR, Eastern Germany -- even Communist China is heading there. Kill the prospect of material prosperity and the motivation for peaceful co-existance dies with it. As hopes diminish of gaining a piece of the peace dividend, deterioration of the economic foundation of peace progresses. We begin to see the re-emergence of old hatreds and a willingness and political need to express them through armed conflict.

Sad news from Pakistan. Can anyone doubt that India and Pakistan will refrain from using these weapons on each other? The events in Russia appear as economic but are political, with serious implications for peace in the region. Likewise, the collapse of Asian markets is likely to bring to an end the enduring yet unstable peace among Asian countries--Taiwan and China, Japan and all her neighbors. Why the sudden popular interest in Chinese/Japanese history, especially new works on The Rape of Nanking? Because China smells weakness in Japan and sees an opportunity to get even.

With these events a long period of relative peace and prosperity begins to draw to a close. The loss of political stability that is essential for investment and economic growth will cause the value of hard assets to rise. As conflicts escalate, gold will increase in value. But it will be a mixed blessing. Will our gold will glisten with the tears of millions?

(Thu May 28 1998 08:38 - ID#340459)
@EJ, Synonymous sentiment and good post, Best of Luck..

(Thu May 28 1998 09:06 - ID#254269)
India 5; Pakistan 2 ; Bill Clinton ............................................

(Thu May 28 1998 09:06 - ID#344239)

(Thu May 28 1998 09:09 - ID#242325)
Started moving some money back into gold funds yesterday. Just 8% of my assets now, but on the way to 25%. Still not sure we have bottomed, but downside risk seems minimal here compared with the upside.

For those of you intriged by magazine covers as contrary indicators, the latest BUSINESS WEEK is a classic. Big picture of Abbey Cohen -- The Prophet of Wall Street.

(Thu May 28 1998 09:14 - ID#316193)
Economy Expands But Profits Decline (What Donald's Been Telling Us)
The U.S. economy expanded at a rapid 48 percent annual rate
in the January - March period, but American corporations
nevertheless suffered their second consecutive quarterly
decline in profits...

(Thu May 28 1998 09:21 - ID#286230)
Pakistan's 2 Nukes

(Thu May 28 1998 09:22 - ID#411149)
gold mkt
Iffin you are interested in the medium to longer term outlook
for gold and are tired of fiddlefartin around with the day to day
ulser trend. Venersos & associates are recognized as THE authority
on the gold market. Lookin out the winder they sees the same thing
as me and Toby. GOLD EXPLOSION!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1

Jest got back from a trip through SWAMPY southern LA. There ain't
no swamps they issn all dryed up. HAd a mocassin on the rear of my
car lookin for water. El Nino? There won't be no crops from this
area this year.

To: bob k ( 31 )
From: Bill Murphy
Tuesday, May 26 1998 4:41PM ET
Reply # of 33

I cannot stress enough that you buy our 1998 Gold Book Annual out in a
few weeks. The book will have quarterly updates sent. You can
review it on our website,
We are looking for a move to $370- $400 within one year and expect the
move to begin as soon as this last tranche of central bank selling ends.
They are STILLl there and in the FINAL stages of pre EMU selling.
Today, the market was hit with some hedge fund selling as every
commodity was down. We then look for the market to trade sideways
for awhile after it reaches the $400 area and then shoot past $600. The
book explains our reasoning, in detail.
We will eventually be putting up a growth gold section on our website.
There are many, many good ones. Ten baggers will be commonplace in
the next several years. Tremendous value is out there at today's wiped
out prices. Three of our favorites are Golden Star Resources ( amex )
Canarc Resource Corp ( tse ) and Greenstone Resources ( tse ) .
Good Luck
Bill Murphy
Veneroso associates

Tally Ho

(Thu May 28 1998 09:22 - ID#316193)
48 Percent Should Read Four Point Eight Percent
(Thu May 28 1998 09:24 - ID#434108)
Pakistan shoots Nukes, Karachi market drops 5%

(Thu May 28 1998 09:28 - ID#242325)
nuclear weapons
The hypocrisy of the US and its allies in condemning India and Pakistani nuclear tests is nauseating. Most have forgotten that the US has twice threatened to use nuclear weapons against Iraq -- a non nuclear state. In view of this why anyone would be surprised that nuclear weapons are proliferating is beyond me. What is sauce for the goose is sauce for the gander.

(Thu May 28 1998 09:28 - ID#254269)
And they said Asia was "no big deal " ! WSJ article page A6, "Boeing reveals
Asian slump will cut long term output of 747's significantly. "

(Thu May 28 1998 09:38 - ID#284255)
Y2k: Recession or Depression?
Some people think we can solve any problem with enough technology and
money. To a large extent, that is what we have done. Computers have
become the foundation of global commerce and communication, and the
Y2k bug will rattle this technological foundation. The Y2k
"technology earthquake" is certain, but the big unknown is how severe
this "technoquake" will be.

I have been following the Y2k issue for well over a year and have
invested hundreds of hours researching it. I work on Y2k
professionally as a consultant and project manager to a Fortune 100
communications company. I've also organized a local Dallas area Y2k
preparedness group. Lots of people ask me what I think will happen.
If you want to know some reasons why I think the Y2k "technoquake"
will be an 8 or better on the Richter scale, review the home page at and read some of the posts archived in the Y2k
Weatherman section.

My optimistic perspective is that Y2k will cause a global depression.
Not recession, but depression. This is my *optimistic* view. I used
to think a 1973-74 style recession was best case. However, based on
corporate and government responses ( or lack thereof ) to Y2k over the
last 4 months, I'm now leaning toward a 1930's global depression being
the optimistic outcome.

I don't like the depression scenario. I wish it weren't so, but that
doesn't make the problem go away. Now that I have 1000 people reading
my opinions, I'm being much more careful about being an "alarmist" so
this is my CONSERVATIVE opinion. A Y2k depression is a conservative,
optimistic outcome based on my experience, research, and understanding
of the scope and depth of the Y2k issue. This is no small statement,
and I don't relish being the bearer of bad news.

Americans are extremely enthralled with our technological prowess. To
think something like a little date glitch could bring our civilization
to its knees seems absurd. After all, if we can put a man on the
moon, land a robot on Mars, and whip Saddam soundly with smart bombs
in the Gulf War, how could a little date bug be such a big deal? So
goes conventional wisdom.

A Y2k depression also runs counter to the bull market mania of the
last 15 years, but people in Indonesia and the other countries
affected by the Asian market crisis didn't think their economies would
collapse either. People want to believe that the stock market will go
up forever no matter what history tells them.

Ed Yardeni understands the macro-economic impact of Y2k. He will be
raising his odds of recession to 75% shortly. Bet on it. I'm not
quite so optimistic. ( I'm also not a perennial bull on the market for
the last decade trying to do a 180 degree reversal. ) Peter DeJager
has stated he is leaving the country ( rural Ireland I think ) , Ed
Yourdon moved from New York to rural New Mexico, and Gary North moved
to rural Arkansas. My house is on the market, and I already live a
hour outside the Dallas metroplex. When the people who know this
problem inside and out are taking action like this, what does that
tell you?

I'm certain a global depression greater than that of the 1930's is
just around the corner. I hope I'm wrong, but I'm afraid a depression
is a pretty safe bet. Like I said, I don't like this reality. I'd
prefer another 10-20 years of a bull market. Unfortunately, we have a
maximum of 18 months left, probably less.

High standard of living cultures have great difficulty dealing with
the "doom and gloom" possibilities of Y2k because we're so used to
prosperity. Negative consequences from Y2k defy our "can do" spirit.
Americans just can't imagine the economy sinking into a recession,
much less a depression. Some people simply cannot believe that 25-30%
annual returns on mutual funds won't last forever. After all, this is
America, land of the big screen TV, Sport Utility Vehicle, and Beanie

Few people on this email list remember the 1930's depression. In
fact, out of 1000 subscribers I bet we don't have more than a handful
who remember it. The younger generations have no grasp of what a
depression is like. I know I don't. I barely remember the 1973-74
recession. This recession is a vague memory to most Baby Boomers.
Generation X youngsters ( like me ) were hardly in grade school during
the '73-74 recession.

I'm 30, married, and have 3 little boys ( ages 8, 5 and 2 ) , so although
I'm a youngster I have 4 dependents to carry through this crisis plus
a bunch of unprepared family members. I'm expecting 8-10 dependents
if things get really bad. That is a *big* burden. This is why I'm
trying to get others to prepare.

If a 1930's global depression scares you, it should. Y2k has enormous
personal ramifications that few people are considering. However, you
know enough to prepare ahead if you subscribe to this email list or
have read through the website.

This is the one advantage you have over the folks in the late 1920's.
Most people didn't see the 1930's depression coming. YOU HAVE ENOUGH
WARNING TO KNOW BETTER! Don't blow your advantage.

You have a few months left to prepare ( maybe ) . Don't waste them. Get
prepared now. You won't regret it.

Ephesians 5:15
Proverbs 27:12

(Thu May 28 1998 09:39 - ID#43185)
Alas, but there it is. Those who do not
learn the lessons of history are doomed to
repeat it---except each time it gets worse
because the technology of destruction gets
more improved.

War leads to peace. Peace leads to prosperity.
Prosperity leads to greed. Greed leads to loss.
Loss leads to despair. Despair leads to war.

At what price do we cheer for gold?

(Thu May 28 1998 09:39 - ID#43185)
Alas, but there it is. Those who do not
learn the lessons of history are doomed to
repeat it---except each time it gets worse
because the technology of destruction gets
more improved.

War leads to peace. Peace leads to prosperity.
Prosperity leads to greed. Greed leads to loss.
Loss leads to despair. Despair leads to war.

At what price do we cheer for gold?
(Thu May 28 1998 09:41 - ID#434108)
India-Pakistani arms-race, moving to the front-burner

Richard Burke
(Thu May 28 1998 09:44 - ID#411318)
World Peace And Economic/Political Disarray
EJ: Sobering thoughts.

Richard Burke
(Thu May 28 1998 09:44 - ID#411318)
World Peace And Economic/Political Disarray
EJ: Sobering thoughts.
(Thu May 28 1998 09:46 - ID#434108)
Russia hoping to avert economic meltdown

(Thu May 28 1998 09:47 - ID#254269)
sharefin; this one's for you re Y2K. Was just thinking about you when I saw your
post a few minutes ago. Today's WSJ is announcing a "Year 2000 Solutions" feature article they will have on July 14th, They are soliciting advertisers for the feature and they give a 1-800 number for advertisers to call. Page B7.

( Hope my post doesn't violate any of Bart's policies )

(Thu May 28 1998 09:49 - ID#286230)
YK2 Problem--Who is ducking it?
I understand that it MIGHT be good for gold if the civilised world comes to a halt on Jan 1 2000 but I am having increasing doubts about the notion that no one is aware of the problem and that no one is doing anything about it. After reading much of the Kitco chat on the matter I am looking around to see what companies and governments are doing that might effect me. I haven't got a list but I know the Canadian federal gov is working on being ready; the Ontario Prov gov is working on it; the banks--all 5 of the are working on it and the issue is in the news--not the headlines--several times a week. Now it maybe that 2 years lead time is too late but it seems to me that we don't need to do any planning based on the notion that nobody knows there is a problem.

(Thu May 28 1998 09:53 - ID#177146)
Randgold is a screaming buy right now at 31/32. Its not going to stay there long. Go Gold.

(Thu May 28 1998 09:55 - ID#284255)
I can't get into the WSJ
Keep us posted please.

Richard Burke
(Thu May 28 1998 10:04 - ID#411318)
Hot Action In White Metals!
Everyone is asleep in the silver stocks market this AM. I follow nine silver stocks. No price changes except PAA which is down .05 on a volume of 250 shares. SSC has moved a few thousand and all the rest, mostly Canadian stocks, are zero volume. No one likes the rise in price of silver of the past few days. The stocks are being ignored.

(Thu May 28 1998 10:08 - ID#57232)
Gold/Silver ratio
Silverbaron: Thanks. Hadn't thought of that -- but makes sense if you a commodities trader. The part I don't understand is the following: If silver rallies, the gold/silver ratio drops. Logically gold would go up not down -- but then if you are a commodities trader, perhaps you dance to a different drum. Now if gold went down, causing the gold/silver ratio to drop -- that I understand.

(Thu May 28 1998 10:09 - ID#342376)
More spoon fed baloney.......
NEW YORK, May 28 ( Reuters ) - Wall Street stocks opened higher on Thursday. ( For about 5 minutes )

(Thu May 28 1998 10:11 - ID#242325)
Gold flat, silver rallying, platinum and palladium getting hit hard. What's happening RJ.

(Thu May 28 1998 10:13 - ID#36156)
XAU leading GOLD spot...

(Thu May 28 1998 10:16 - ID#286230)
OLD GOLD -- Richard Burke
OLD GOLD---even nukes going off fired by mortal enemies in constant warfare for 50 years has no effect on gold--what will it take--little people buying it is my guess.

Richard Burke: Do you follow UKH and if so what are your views?

(Thu May 28 1998 10:21 - ID#57232)
I like the way you think
Gollum: I second someone's elses posts on Kitco. You know what's happening. I wish we had better topics to talk about, but it is better to know what you are facing in a few years than to blithely wait to be shorn ( or worse ) .

The cycles of war and peace, poverty and prosperity are part of human nature. During peacetime decisions are made that set the world on the path for the next war -- and the message is there for those that care to see it. Unfortunately the peacetime leaders are often the least capable of preventing the next war. The leaders we really need usually do not step up to the plate until nearly everyone sees the looming crisis. And -- so the cycles continue.

John Disney__A
(Thu May 28 1998 10:25 - ID#24135)
Whoaaa ..
JTF .. Are you serious ??
You said ...

"The part I don't understand is the following: If silver
rallies, the gold/silver ratio drops. Logically gold
would go up not down -- but then if you are a commodities trader,
perhaps you dance to a different drum. Now if gold
went down, causing the gold/silver ratio to drop --
that I understand."

I cannot follow what you are saying..
.. what are you saying ??... never mind
the "different drum" part.. Its the

Gianni Dioro__A
(Thu May 28 1998 10:27 - ID#384350)
Leland, little mistakes
Don't fret it. On the Financial Times website today, they said that the unemployment rate in Argentina peaked at 118% in '95.

It just goes to show that you just can't trust them Orwellian numbers.

BTW, the article said that the IMF was mad that the lower house of govt was unlikely to pass laws encouraging the exploitation of part-time labor ( those weren't the exact words, but yes it was the meaning ) .

(Thu May 28 1998 10:29 - ID#43185)
History always repeats itself, but never exactly the same
way. Thus springs hope.

It seems it takes three score and ten or so years between
the cycles, time enough for most who remember to be gone I

Let's hope enough people have their eyes open this time that
the path taken is more favorable than it could be.

(Thu May 28 1998 10:33 - ID#316193)
For Those That Haven't Discovered PINKY'S TAILING BOX

(Thu May 28 1998 10:33 - ID#289357)
JTF @ Gold/Silver Ratio (GSR)

From a trader's point of view ( I'm not one ) , this would be a continuation of the game that has been played since the GSR was at 100 a few years ago. If the ratio is falling, it is a slam-dunk to be long silver and short an equal dollar amount of gold. You are market-neutral ( you don't care which way gold goes, up or down ) and so long as the GSR is falling, you make money.

This is one of the main reasons silver has gone in the tank lately - the GSR started a big counter-trend rise and all the long silver, short gold positions trader were reversed. Now perhaps it goes back the other way for a while - Silver up and gold down, or silver up a lot and gold up a little.

I've held my positions in silver mining stocks for a couple of years now, and unless I'm very wrong about the silver market fundamentals, the GSR will decline to ( at least ) below 30 over the long term. There is some historical precidence for it dropping even lower than this, on a panic silver spike up. That activity make still be a few years off. I do not intend to sell ANY silver-related stocks until the ratio drops below 30.

(Thu May 28 1998 10:37 - ID#289357)

trader = trades

(Thu May 28 1998 10:43 - ID#165253)
@Gianni Dioro, your 7:45
foriegn troops on usa soil? check out this guys webpage, scroll down to a trojan horse in america.

(Thu May 28 1998 10:46 - ID#57232)
Please see Silverbaron's explanation
John Disney: It is pretty clear to me now -- I am not a commodities trader. If silver rises significantly, irrespective of gold, the gold silver ratio drops so the GSR traders are long silver, short gold -- a shoo-in. That means the shorts pile into gold -- pushing it down -- very much like what just happened.

The question of whether gold rallies when silver rallies is thus a more complex one when you take into account the GSR commodities traders. My guess is that if the silver rally is strong enough, gold will rally anyway. Just another hurdle for gold to push through during a silver rally.

I wonder just how long this deflationary period with dropping commodities will last.

(Thu May 28 1998 10:48 - ID#187218)
Mr. sharefin:

I've been observing this site since its inception and at times had spent considerable time posting my views and discussing the 'issues of the day' with the kind folks at KITCO. I greatly appreciate your insight and your contributions to this site. I have learned from you.


I must strongly disagree with you on the Y2K issue. In the past, I have provided rigorous details as to my ( and others' ) experience with computing and associated applications in regards to communications entities such as AT&T, BellCore, Bell Labs, Lucent, and OTC and private corporate infrastructures. Those who are regulars on this site have read all the posting and are quite familiar with the dichotomy amongst the 2 Y2K 'camps'. Let's not develop our theories based on non-sequitur ( s ) that correlate the manipulation of financial markets of 1929 to computer problems related to Year 2000. If you argue the manipulation of the technical experts of today are using the Y2K issue to enhance the revenue stream of this community are similar in some factors to those of financial and political wizards of the 1920's and 1930's - this is a legitimate discussion of which provides symetry. Both involve specialists that have the knowledge and power to enhance their own interest WHILE providing a 'service'. The parameters defining 'service' are the 'quantized' elements of discussion of which 'seed' the purpose and interest of the argument. This is a discussion for another day and time.

The world will not end with Y2K nor will a Y2K induced 'depression' be the "cause" of a financial/economic collapse. Nor will the Y2K issue be a critical factor toward such an end. The basis of such a collapse is more in recognizing the use of fiat currency and the political legerdemain that we on KITCO spend our professional and personal time analyzing and disuccsing with friends and collegues.

As a student of my own analysis I will offer to you that I am NOT a fan of computer consultants, et al, in spite of utilizing this title in the subset of my overall professional responsibilities. I understand the issues and have outlined several in months past. I have attempted to communicate with Mr. Ed Yourdon, author of "Time Bomb 2000", on several 'a priori' assumptions made within his arguments that enhance the means by which his justifications further promote his philosophy. He has failed to respond. As someone who has authored many papers on mathematics, engineering, and scientific developments, I look forward to discussing the details of my analaysis with readers. I have corrected those elements of an argument that are incorrectly written or misconstrue the intent of my suppositions. I find it un-professional that he would not respond. Particularly when he knows I have him 'in the quicksand'. Publishers of this material do not provide newer editions based on incorrect information since they don't sell quite well. BUT - He makes lotsa money selling books and I don't so maybe "I'm" doing something wrong.

SUMMARY:... Many folks working on Y2K issues ( at all levels ) have a tendency to further the endeavor and fall into the trap of 'frightening the populace' in an effort to gain acceptance and support for their position. This is not unique to Y2K analyzers. Many want to feel that their contributions are worth-while and make a difference. After all - we spend much time in our work and want someone to appreciate our efforts.

I do not intend to belittle or demean those of you doing work on Y2K ( I have been recently contracted to supply a service to a major Corporation regarding Y2K and feel tht my contribution ( s ) are necessary and worth the price they are paying for this service ) . I apologize to those insulted by any misuse of the written word but my intentions are only to inform. Y2K is a legitimate problem but NOT life-threatening NOR life-altering.

Finally, Mr. sharefin: I have NOT been able to contribute recently since I've been busy with some professional research - so - I will not be able to respond quickly to any feedback ( each time I raise the issue I get a flood of responses that attack my 'blasphemy' ) . I do try to get to the site several times weekly and look forward to any further discussions.

Thank you for your patience in reading this.

(Thu May 28 1998 11:03 - ID#43185)
The future never turns out to be as bad our worst fears
nor as good as our fondest dreams.

True strength is like the willow, bend when the wind blows
and straighten when it stops.

Neccesity and ingenuity have always been able to overcome
what might otherwise have been seen as insurmountable

Mr. Mick
(Thu May 28 1998 11:04 - ID#345321)
Mozel - yesterday you said "A goldbug doe not belong in America......"
Where does a goldbug belong?

(Thu May 28 1998 11:07 - ID#57232)
I share your dreams
Gollum: I also hope that more individuals will understand these cycles with the onset of the information revolution. Perhaps the 'awakening' we are experiencing with this medium of exchange will blunt future cycles, and make the human condition more tolerable.

I know we are capable as a race of reaching the stars. The technology is nearly there -- lets hang together and make it through this difficult period -- and reach the 1000 year period of peace that Nostradumus appears to refer to.

My guess is that we are going through a transition period that any civilization must go through to leave their birthplace ( earth for us ) . It is up to each of us to make sure we succeed.

(Thu May 28 1998 11:13 - ID#210235)
Hope you can come back and post more about your experiences/understanding of y2k. Maybe you can sneak some time out when you ought to be sleeping, works for me :-^

(Thu May 28 1998 11:15 - ID#57232)
USAGold site worth looking at today
All: Someone -- please tell me about gold 'first call' over the next few days, and why the shorts tend to cover about this time. I don't have a clue what this is about.

Thanks in advance.

(Thu May 28 1998 11:19 - ID#36156)
Hi-ooooh Silllverrr...AWAY!
The Lone Ranger and Tonto walked into a bar and sat down to drink a
beer. After a few minutes, a big tall cowboy walked in and said "Who
owns the big white horse outside?" The Lone Ranger stood up, hitched
his gunbelt, and said, "I do... Why?"

The cowboy looked at the Lone Ranger and said, "I just thought you'd
like to know that your horse is about dead outside!" The Lone Ranger
and Tonto rushed outside and sure enough Silver was ready to die from
heat exhaustion.

The Lone Ranger got the horse water and soon Silver was starting to
feel a little better. The Lone Ranger turned to Tonto and said,
"Tonto, I want you to run around Silver and see if you can create
enough of a breeze to make him start to feel better."

Tonto said, "Sure, Kemosabe" and took off running circles around
Silver. Not able to do anything else but wait, the Lone Ranger
returned to the bar to finish his drink.

A few minutes later, another cowboy struts into the bar and asks, "Who
owns that big white horse outside?" The Lone Ranger stands again, and
claims, "I do, what's wrong with him this time?"

The cowboy looks him in the eye and says, "Nothing, but you left your
Injun runnin'."

(Thu May 28 1998 11:20 - ID#22956)
Old Gold - "The US has NO choice but to impose sanctions under the law"........... ( and other stuff ) .....said BC this a.m. ( now it's Mozel's turn to 'tear' this one up ) EVERYONE around the world ( all gubments ) aren't too happy today about these detonations.

And the count is FIVE weapons detonated. Which is crazy because they apparently don't have too many of 'em. It must be a 'flexing' of sort. It's kind of crazy if'n ya ax me.

And I am with Selby.......what will it take to 'bump' gold....... ( ? )

This Nuke thingy has me unsettled...................

Now........October Plat is starting to look REAL tasty......I will wait and see.....perhaps until next week. It will not make a long drawn out basing likes V bottoms.....uh huh. This is why I like it!

Aurator - I sent TeddO a snail mail last week. He should be receiving sooooon. He started his garden?? I sent him some Tomato ( e ) seeds ;- ) ........yup. I should send him ANOTHER package full of Ibuprofin, geritol, Ginseng, sweet basil ( he has to have fresh basil for the pasta ) ...................yup....that's what I'll do.

All - this is the MOST important statement I can make regarding gold: BUY IT IF YOU WANT TO.

RJ - call me at work....the 736#.....after 1:00. Turn around is QUICK! The girlfreind told me it was the Jubilee........We were trying for the Elation but time restraints would not allow. I understand that Elation was on the east coast circuit before moving over here. They are similar ships. Both FUN. Try to get that gold-dude real drunk and interrogate him for us. We want info.......juicy stuff. Don't come home emtpy handed. the grind


(Thu May 28 1998 11:22 - ID#342315)
Wetgold re previous email
Awhile back you sent me an email. It got lost when I had to change ISP and computer. My email is Please send me another and I can answer your question,thanx Charlie

(Thu May 28 1998 11:23 - ID#57232)
Russian Tax collection methods - oppressive, apparently
All: Does this sound like a way to make sure the Russian economic system survives? Perhaps the Russian Tax collectors fear the Gangster types, and focus on the innocents.

Steve - Perth__A
(Thu May 28 1998 11:24 - ID#284170)
ALBERICH & the mad musings of Larouche
Alberich, very coincidental to catch your post just like that. I dont visit this site every day. I agree wholeheartedly with your comments re:
Larouche. However, as his information gathering seems interesting, I will continue posting some of it on this site. I couldn't give a rats about Larouche or his followers. However, the info is useful occasionally. Steve in Perth

(Thu May 28 1998 11:28 - ID#153102)
@Gianni @Squirrel
Every aspirant to the office of President has wet dreams about the word Emergency.
Because, unlike the ignoranti that elect them, they know the power vested in the office of the President by Emergency by law. A place in History's Sun beckons the ambitious.
Clinton has given FEMA a new and expanded mission statement which I posted the key section from. He has drafted the necessary Executive Orders. He has appointed a commission on Y2K so that he can be officially notified by it of an imminent Emergency. He has done his homework and has his ducks in a row.

There is no need to wonder about it. Just plan for it.

(Thu May 28 1998 11:32 - ID#57232)
First Notice day (at USAgold)
Sorry: Meant 'first notice day', not first call day.

Is this the day of the month when gold future expire?

(Thu May 28 1998 11:35 - ID#270247)
JTF@Russian Tax Collectors

The tax collectors ARE the gangsters.

(Thu May 28 1998 11:36 - ID#251268)
JTF-- fnd=
first notice day=the first day on which notice of intention
to deliver actual commodities against futures contracts can be made.~~~
Now what that means I'm not sure although I've got a few spins on the
concept I'm still not totaly clear on it.
EB-what about the brew? I been working long hours so have
cut down on Kitco adiction,anyway if it was good brew another
if it wasn't brew another.

(Thu May 28 1998 11:37 - ID#242325)
Selby: What will get gold moving big time? Smart money perception that US financial assets have peaked and are enteing a sustained bear market. Not a 10% correction, but a BEAR MARKET FOR US BONDS AND THE DOLLAR AS WELL AS STOCKS.

(Thu May 28 1998 11:48 - ID#269191)
The real problem with gold.
I have come to the conclusion that most of the factors discussed
as the causes of gold's problems are symptoms and not causes. I think
the real cause is high real U.S. interest rates.

High real U.S. rates create a big spread between spot gold and the futures thus stimulating forward selling and the rush for central
banks to convert their gold reserves for interest bearing dollars.
High real rates damp down inflation and make the dollar look like
a good store of value. With U.S. Treasuries seen as having no credit
risk, why park flight money in gold when you can earn high real interest
on risk-free Treasuries?

What will convincingly turn gold around? Lower U.S. interest rates.

(Thu May 28 1998 11:48 - ID#269191)
The real problem with gold.
I have come to the conclusion that most of the factors discussed
as the causes of gold's problems are symptoms and not causes. I think
the real cause is high real U.S. interest rates.

High real U.S. rates create a big spread between spot gold and the futures thus stimulating forward selling and the rush for central
banks to convert their gold reserves for interest bearing dollars.
High real rates damp down inflation and make the dollar look like
a good store of value. With U.S. Treasuries seen as having no credit
risk, why park flight money in gold when you can earn high real interest
on risk-free Treasuries?

What will convincingly turn gold around? Lower U.S. interest rates.

(Thu May 28 1998 11:56 - ID#373284)
Each and every day when I press gold into the palm of a new found friend
the truth that is real money is known...Charlie, Leo will be on the way within two hours...MY word is my bond and real...Namaste'

(Thu May 28 1998 11:59 - ID#43185)
Scared money, Smart money
The question has been raised as to what
it will take to move gold. Nuclear tests, asian
chaos, markets on the brink, and gold moves not.

Gold moves not, but each new crises brings another
jump in the dollar. Because that's what is seen as
the safe haven for scared moeny. Only when paper
cash is seen to be unsafe will the money run toward
real assets.

The strong dollar has created the problems that
feed the strong dollar. If inflation or the threat
of inflation or the threat of bank failures or other
financial system difficulty bring the strength of
the dollar into question, then those that have it
will gegin to move it toward real assets.

Even now some already are, but they do it quietly
so as to not disturb prices....

(Thu May 28 1998 12:04 - ID#36156)
Historical (hysterical?) Perspective
Hey, Guys, remember this? I think Vronsky posted it. I saved the text, but not the poster, sorry.


From NEWS and VIEWS ( USA Gold ) Newsletter, feb 98:

The following are quotes published recently by James Blanchard in his
GOLD NEWSLETTER. Please note the similarities between what you see and
hear now in the financial press and what was being said in 1976, just
before gold made its historic run to nearly the $900 level. At the
time these comments were made, gold was in its darkest hour having
collapsed to the $100 level under the pressure of US Treasury and IMF
gold sales.


"I don't know where we go from here. I'd hate to say $90 an ounce, but
I suppose even that is possible."......Wall Street Journal 7/20/76


"Thanks to the latest IMF dumping of the stuff ( gold ) , the great
rush of '76 --to unload-- took on the makings of an old fashioned
panic. But take heart, gold bugs! Dick Donelly, from his privileged
perch in Commodities Corner, assures us that the intrinsic value is at
least $5 an ounce."...........Barron's 7/22/76


"...Gold, that fair weathered friend, is distinctly out of fashion.
Even to bring out the subject is to lay oneself open to
sneers."................... .......Financial World, Fall 1976


"There seems to be little to stop the price of gold going below $100
an ounce."....................... ...........The Economist, 9/11/76


"The new low for gold is an indication that the central banks of the
world, particlarly the US Federal Reserve, and the West German
Bundesbank, are determined to press on their plans to demonetize gold
regardless what that does to the price.".... .................Business


"The rebound in the gold price from the low of $103 in August to
around $140 by mid-November probably isn't the beginning of another
sustained boost because neither runaway inflation nor recession are
immediate global threats. That's the view of gold watchers who aren't
'die-hard' gold bugs."...... ............Money Magazine 12/76

(Thu May 28 1998 12:04 - ID#153102)
My statement was predicated, not absoloute. But, I perceive a very high probability the predicates will occur for the reasons previously stated.

I'd like to hear opinions in answer to your question myself. I mentioned some possible destinations, but I'd like ideas from other Americans who post here who would not want to live in New America.

(Thu May 28 1998 12:07 - ID#273432)

I believe it is the first day that the holder of a long futures contract for the current month declares that he/she will or will not take physical delivery.

(Thu May 28 1998 12:07 - ID#207145)
Siedman speaks about the dollar.

Idont think anyone doubts the strenghth of the dollar i golds bugabThe dollar is over valued by 25%. This is common knowlege. We're waiting for it to start dropping. This will happen when asia strengthens, money flows from market. Probably after Fed. completes some increases.

(Thu May 28 1998 12:11 - ID#207145)
Scared money/////////////////////////////

it goes to the safest percieved place. Wait a little while for the dollar to weaken. It isn't now, and gold is not a buy now.

(Thu May 28 1998 12:23 - ID#153102)
High interest = Usury. That is a lot more than Gold's problem.

Lawyers as attorneys and usury came into American law together. Today lawyers perform the same function that they did in Roman Judea. They work for The Bank.

Since knowledge of a higher moral law is derided and out of fashion among mankind, only fear of default by the usurious borrower who lends for a living will drive Americans to gold. Americans have put their faith in the power of Science and the power of government with Science as its tool. It will take something tangible and personal to shake that faith. It's a short step from fear to panic. Not much of a market window there, I'd say.

(Thu May 28 1998 12:24 - ID#289357)

Or conversely, the time for a short futures holder to give notice that they will make delivery. ( Although, in these markets almost no one either delivers or takes delivery of the physical stuff, as you know. )

(Thu May 28 1998 12:24 - ID#227168)
Summer in Canada
As most commodity markets have been trend-less for months ---selling options has been fannnntasic---Oh My! And EB is busy? Lying buy the pool watching those poor options detonate --Sell those calls and puts Let godzilla know Bad Bad Movie But Armageddon coming soon to a movie theater close But not too close Away for some Buffet mad Margaritas.

(Thu May 28 1998 12:24 - ID#207145)
oil drillers offer value soon
Oils seasonal bottom is June 15. Oil has been out of season for nigh 6 months. Asia is helping reduce shares also. Profits are great, but shares go with poO ( price of oil ) . This will save GOLD, hurt bonds and bail out the CRB, as a HARD La Nina winter nears.Gold WILL GO. Thiis is concrete, no BS.

(Thu May 28 1998 12:25 - ID#256255)
Forgive my repost of this but ...
it is not everyday that comex eligible gold stocks drop 53.6%.


Date: Thu May 28 1998 00:36
A.Goose ( Excuse me - which one of you just walked off with ) ID#20137:
Copyright  1998 A.Goose/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
53.6% of comex's eligible GOLD!!! What a bargin and it cost you only $50 million of so. ONLY 149,568 ounces
left. And its on SALE - $44 million.

Look at the comex copper stocks. WOW!! they just keep dropping, someone seems to be gobbling them up ---
kmaybe a nice way to get rid of USdollars.

warehouse stocks:
-- GOLD ( Quoted in Troy Ounce )
Prev. Received Net. Adjust- Total
Total Withdrawn Chg. ment Today

636,926 32,076 40,408 -8,332 172,876 801,470
322,443 0 0 0 -172,875 149,568
959,369 32,076 40,408 -8,332 1 951,038

-- ( Quoted in Troy Ounce )
Net. Adjust- Total
Chg. ment Today

0 54,866 37,347,768
14,822 -54,866 54,147,328
14,822 0 91,495,096

Warehouse stocks:

Copper - high-grade cathodes ( in short tons )
point previous received withdrawn net chg total

Total 88,191 0 974 -974 87,217


Gold 80,000
Silver 13,000
H.G. Copper 7,000


Date: Thu May 28 1998 06:19
rhody ( @ A. Goose: Your post re. over half of the COMEX eligible gold stockpiles bought in one day is )

Rhody, you are right comex does give us a view into the actions inside of the LBME. You can see this from the action in copper where we have data on both comex and LBME. note the 2,325 metric tons drop in LBME stocks and the decline of 1,157 short tons in comex warehouse stocks.


Midsession N.Y. Copper: Subdued as Recent Selling

has been subdued so far this morning, with recent selling
drying up before the July futures can retest last week's
life-of-contract low, said sources here.
Since the opening of pit trade, the July contract has
been confined to a narrow 70-point range, between 74.60 and
75.30 cents. On May 18, it traded down as far as 73.50
"Selling is drying up as we approach the previous lows
made on the 18th," said Michael Frawley, senior vice
president with CARR Futures.
"Overall, I think there is some concern that as the
open interest rises, it is reflecting an increase in fund
short positions. Consequently, the market could be
vulnerable to some short covering."
The market continues to cast an eye toward the economic
problems of Far East countries due to their possible impact
on copper demand. "That perceived slowdown in demand has
helped offset the strong demand out of North America," said
However, he added, worries about the Asian region are
being somewhat offset by the continuing drawdown of
warehouse inventories of copper.
The market could be in a trading range for the short
term, rather than having any definitive trend, he added. He
put this potential trading range for the July futures at 70
to 78 cents.
London Metal Exchange authorities reported this morning
that warehouse stocks of copper fell 2,325 metric tons,
leaving the total at 266,375. Meanwhile, after the close of
New York pit trade on Tuesday, COMEX officials reported a
decline of 1,157 short tons in warehouse stocks, leaving the
total there at 88,191 short tons.
Three-months copper in London is currently up $8 at


I hesitate to add this next article ( because I am taking to much space, but I think it shows that stocks have been dropping even during the neagative price action and negative worries about asia. So why are folks buying these MASSIVE amounts of copper??? AS JTF noted,it is a way to trade in your USdollars for a hard asset???


On the comex gold stocks, please note that some stocks did flow into the registered stocks. I believe that comex is getting ready for another outflow of eligible. I think that Allen was correct in his view that comex must have some minimum level of eligible gold stocks to hawk their paper gold. My guess is that level is somewhere in the 140,000 to 120,000 area. What we are now seeing ( IMHO ) is comex fighting all those April contracts that chose to take delivery.

jims this does seem significant to me.

Gollum, you think the life boats would be gone by now???


Silverbaron, good point. Someone did come in and replenish the eligible stocks at a lower price level and now someone ( s ) are removing it at a higher price level.


sharefin, if folks are taking some of their market profits and just putting a very very small protion into pm's .... well we all know what that means. BUT, if at the same time they are buying on margin, ouch.

I would HOPE, that they do not go back in on margin.


Well, that taking way more than my alloted space. bbml.

(Thu May 28 1998 12:27 - ID#413109)
Check it out and be HAPPY!
Since lately there's been a lot of gloom, I feel if you check out
previous bottoms in down moves of the XAU index, like this one, you'll
see some resemblance. Besides time and distance have also been met in
this correction IMHO.
One other thing to check is the stochastics in several of the
gold stocks have bottom looking patterns-check it out, it'll put
a smile where the frown was.

(Thu May 28 1998 12:27 - ID#289357)

What was the REAL interest rate in the 70's when Gold and Silver had a big run-up?

(Thu May 28 1998 12:30 - ID#207145)
Will La Nina dry up crops?
Swarms of locusts in Cal.,Bugs left over from last year as winter did not kill many.Mirror image of weather could cause CRB to do better later in summer, coupled with increase in po oil as we head into winter heating oil season. Something has to SAVE the CRB.

(Thu May 28 1998 12:31 - ID#289357)
Also take a look at the volume patterns on stocks like DROOY and RANGY - Those have all the looks of MAJOR accumulation bottoms, IMHO.

(Thu May 28 1998 12:33 - ID#289357)
A. Goose

Could be that some body is turning all that copper into brass cartridges ( ;^ (

(Thu May 28 1998 12:35 - ID#207145)
throw in the coming DEFENCE BUILDUP.......sounds silly doesn't it ?
dollar, bonds tank later on due to James Earl Clinton defence buildup.... We can't fight anymore due to clinton peace dividend cuts. A problem will arise in middle east to show U.S. how impotent it is becoming. This will kill bonds. Bonds hate defense spending.

(Thu May 28 1998 12:35 - ID#213265)
@the scene
Blooper -- Asia strengthens? Well, all things are relative. More likely when the perception that all the gains of being in the dollar based derivatives are already had and they have nowhere left to go but down. I.E.; The strength of the dollar causes loss of corporate earnings, etc, etc, etc...... and if the US can't import Asias way out of its current 'malaise', who can or will? Before this whole mess is done, A WHOLE lot of debt EVERYWHERE is going to be washed away upon the shores of debacle. In the mean time, expect lots of paper to be printed and to make its rounds in an attempt in 'fixing' the hemoraging. But the 'victim' will be found to be WAY TOO FAR gone as he is springing leaks everywhere; As if more debt paper piled onto debt paper could ever fix anything but a fat bankers wallet anyway! We are all one big 'happy' co-dependent family you know and what goes around DOES come around.

(Thu May 28 1998 12:36 - ID#43185)
Oh, I quite agree, the game's afoot and there are
noises over there in the dark by the lifboat davits

Big money always moves quietly on big cat's feet
and is gone before the dawn

(Thu May 28 1998 12:36 - ID#347235)
@ Silverbaron
If I remember right I was getting 19% on CDs at the time

(Thu May 28 1998 12:38 - ID#207145)
El Dorado.
Put your money in Asia right now, and pull it out of USA, and i guaran-dam-tee you, in 5 years you will double to triple your money.

(Thu May 28 1998 12:38 - ID#207145)
El Dorado.
Put your money in Asia right now, and pull it out of USA, and i guaran-dam-tee you, in 5 years you will double to triple your money.

(Thu May 28 1998 12:38 - ID#207145)
El Dorado.
Put your money in Asia right now, and pull it out of USA, and i guaran-dam-tee you, in 5 years you will double to triple your money.

(Thu May 28 1998 12:39 - ID#207145)
El Dorado.
Put your money in Asia right now, and pull it out of USA, and i guaran-dam-tee you, in 5 years you will double to triple your money.

(Thu May 28 1998 12:40 - ID#207145)
El Dorado.
Put your money in Asia right now, and pull it out of USA, and i guaran-dam-tee you, in 5 years you will double to triple your money.

(Thu May 28 1998 12:41 - ID#287186)
MOZEL: Goldbugs belong anywhere - but may flourish only off this planet!

JTF: Yes, let's get off this planet. As I've posted before here, humans need the challenge of a new frontier to direct their energies toward - otherwise like a hyperactive child, we hurt ourselves bouncing off the walls and directing our energies into each other. {Wed May 13 1998 18:58, Wed May 13 1998 05:31}

GOLLUM: Yes we are doomed to repeat history - we never learn, our lives and thus memories are too short. We do not really learn from written history, not even the graphic filmed history from WWII has made an impact on the general population and their leaders - both/all of whom regard the time as happening to someone else {like watching fictional movies}. Problem is - the more numerous and more integrated humanity becomes - the greater its fall. When we do eventually reach the stars the fires we set likely will spread from planet to planet - not just from country to country. If I were aliens watching our development - I would quarantine us here. We are not mature enough to be trusted with the stars. Planets and moons in "our" solar system may give us the growing space to mature - maybe. {again refer to the posts I refer to above}.


The average PM content of nickel-nickel asteroids is MUCH HIGHER than earth's crust. Concentrated ORE BODIES on such asteroids would be considerably richer - just as here. The below is from my post on K2 {gold coin & bar forum}. At the time I did not have prices for nickel. Iron would be useful for construction in space. The url at the bottom yields LOTS of info on each of the elements - such as the ppm of any metal in such asteroids.

Date: Sun May 24 1998 04:33

Squirrel ( Lodgepole pine ) ID#287186:

Mining PMs in the asteroid belt is richer than here!

Total of maybe $400 or so a ton.


In Earth's crust: 0.01 ppm

In Iron Meteorite: 19 ppm 17.25 grams/ton = $213/ton


In Earth's crust: 0.002 ppm

In Iron Meteorite: 1.8 ppm 1.6 grams/ton = $15/ton


In Earth's crust: 0.003 ppm

In Iron Meteorite: 3.8 ppm 3.5 grams/ton = $40/ton


In Earth's crust: 0.0002 ppm

In Iron Meteorite: 3.0 ppm 2.7 grams/ton =


In Earth's crust: 0.001 ppm

In Iron Meteorite: 4.1 ppm 3.7 grams/ton = $75/ton


In Earth's crust: 72 ppm

In Iron Meteorite: 67000 ppm 134 pounds/ton = $x/ton


In Earth's crust: 58 ppm

In Iron Meteorite: 130 ppm 118 grams/ton = $x/ton

(Thu May 28 1998 12:43 - ID#43185)
Ha! Why, yes I guess they could be turning
it all into brass cartridges. What's zinc doing?

(Thu May 28 1998 12:46 - ID#43185)
Ha! Why, yes I guess they could be turning
it all into brass cartridges. What's zinc doing?

(Thu May 28 1998 12:49 - ID#213265)
@the scene
blooper -- Not I, said the cat. WAY too much over-capacity over there and WAY too much debt that hasn't been 'rectified' yet. Nope. They got a LONG way to go yet and since our system/economy probably won't be what it once was by that time, they'll be hurtin' for their customary markets too!

(Thu May 28 1998 13:00 - ID#335184)
Wither which way Moses ? Get off your asses, put down your shouvels, Mr. Roosevelt done took us to
the Promised land !

Precious Au thoughts from some one who has only been wondering in this desart a short, but bewildering while.

It appears that Au will not sink into the abyss or even test hair raising double bottom lows in the near term, i.e., within two weeks that many have been looking for here. IMHIPO, we will have a short two week rally into June as forecast by Cyclist & then return to test current ground or $280 & below through end of July, where he is guessing it will be time to load up. Steve Kaplan has turned moderately bullish, near term.

Perhaps, the EMU will have a very positive Au announcement re Au reserve backing for Euro ( say 30 % ) that will give a temporary euphoric boost to POG. Other fundamentals are in place to take a run at $315. But the negatives that stll haunt POG ( as noted : High real rates with a stated bias to tighten, tall USD with Yen, Nippon Banks & economy in a coma & PPT protected Dow & US Bond market ) are too
strong for POG to really get off the mat & soar to natural equlilibrium spot.
Furter Yen deterioration & most significantly, a sharp & sudden Yuan devaluation after the anniveriary of HK "Liberation" will cap & deflate any POG rally. But after that, 2nd Q losses in the banking sector from derivitive losses eminating from asia & dematerializing Phantom S&P profits will be evident causing a final rip in the new paradigm myth net suspended under the DOW. 2nd Q trade deficit & 3rd & 4th Q projections will be staggering causing tremendous pressure to lower or at least not raise interest rates at a rate that will keep real rates from lowering. In other words rates for the 2nd half of the year will not rise fast enough ralative to the rate of inflation, a very positive environment for POG. Throw in a dash of a wiff of impeachment of the Boy President in August & maybe the magnitude of the problem will exceed the grasp of the PPT the same way that the IMF looks at the ailing Tigers & Japan, like the Big Dog who finally did catch the Greyhound Bus.

If POG/ XAU rally unfolds from now to June 14, it may be a window of opprotunity to take some risk off the table til the end of July.

All, ofcourse, IMHIPO! Seller BEWARE !



(Thu May 28 1998 13:01 - ID#344239)

(Thu May 28 1998 13:01 - ID#22956)
You guar-an-DAMN-tee ( ? ) .......although I agree with your 'cycles' regarding this Asian thing and their ability to 'clean it up' in 5 yrs. what will you guarantee us? A pot-o-gold? a hundred K? a bean-burrito from taco-bell?

I like that word rolls offa your tongue real good like.......ah say........... ( said in my best Foghorn-Leghorn accent )

GUAR-AN-DAMN-TEE!! yuk-yuk

go gold.... poorboys house for margies and will wait.......perhaps a little gowf ( golf ) ...ohmy!


(Thu May 28 1998 13:03 - ID#340459)
The majority of the people here believe and anticipate a sharp and sudden rise in POG and PM's.
The basis for such expectations have been elicited in varied forms or Events. Many of these reasonings have come to pass ( meltdowns in Russia & Asia, Nukes, US Trade Imbalance, US debt from T-Bills, Corrections in DOW etc.. ) and inspite of OUR logic, Gold has been a Down Hill Racer for nearly two decades. I have been invested in PM's and have been losing for over 10 years now and it has been a very difficult road to put it mildly.
The laest Forbes article on WB/Silver said that Silver is at 600 year low and Gold is also at Historic lows in multiple Centuries.

I am sure that over these several centuries, Many things happened which were more severe than anything happening now ( like 2 World War's, Colonization and break up of Empires, famine's, Depression ( s ) etc., Then how come Gold / Silver are not controlling the financial world today as it should have been.

Silver is not at 6 yr or 60yr but 600 year low and Gold close to that many centuries, All of us at at Kitco might be in heavens and Silver might notch up to 700 yr low in year 2098, who knows, The Track record speaks for itself without any need for further deliberation.

The goldbugs have probably come to believe that we are comparitively more savvy about the global financial situation than a normal mutual fund Investor or Fund Manager, This sadly is not borne by the facts nor returns in PM's.

I have raved and ranted about the stupidity of CB's and Mines that have covered themselves with forward sales etc.. But the REALITY have not changed nor the prices have gone up, Thus finally I think that a very Sharp upward and unprecedentant move may just be my wish in this lifetime. While I lose a lot and jeopardize my not only my retirement but also the future's of my children with pipe dreams that have not even come close to any form of real financial reward.

Tis from my heart, I hope that I am WRONG and dreams RIGHT..

(Thu May 28 1998 13:05 - ID#153102)
Inter-planetary yammer is escapism, fiction science plain and simple.
We are biologically what we are. The grant applications of physicists don't interest me. I'll wait for a demonstration by the biologists before paying attention or money.

(Thu May 28 1998 13:05 - ID#22956)
you'll get the hang of it........when you hit submit once that's is Glenn that still has the record though......and I don't think Bart will allow anyone to beat that one. Anyone remember that? something like 48 times??? And it was a Loooooooooong post too. Whew!

go silver....... ( go ) .

(Thu May 28 1998 13:06 - ID#207145)
EB and EL Dorado.
I agree my post was too strong, however you guys need to respect value investors also. Our markets havent felt the pain yet. We will be many years getting over our bubble. Asia is almost cheap. Devaluation by China would be a buy point. You guys will get over your BULL FEEVER soon.

(Thu May 28 1998 13:09 - ID#284255)
PM Charts and Swing chart

Looks like someone pressed a buy button 12:47
But it's not working to well.

(Thu May 28 1998 13:15 - ID#207145)
multiple post embarrasing..Asia recommendation just smart.
I'm waiting on CHICOM devaluation to invest 10%. It's a nice place to put speculative money. I have been reading , and enjoying your posts for many months. Sorry if I pulled your chains too hard. Asia will recover as they are industrious people. Sneeky too. ) Just kidding. They just will never do to please us as Kipling said East is East.

Richard Burke
(Thu May 28 1998 13:16 - ID#411318)
United Keno Hill (UKH)
Selby: I do not follow this stock. I understand that the mine has been non-operational several times. The Yukon is always happy to see it going again for the employment it offers. I used to travel to the Yukon supplying wire rope to the various mines. I always looked forward to the trip.

(Thu May 28 1998 13:16 - ID#289357)
Gollum @ Base metal price charts

You asked about zinc prices - here's a good chart source:

(Thu May 28 1998 13:19 - ID#242325)
Very high volume in several of the majors today. An encouraging sign. Yes!

(Thu May 28 1998 13:19 - ID#284255)
What's going on?
They just hit the button again.
Tickling the PREM
But it's not inspiring the indexes.

They want it higher.

(Thu May 28 1998 13:19 - ID#153102)
@Taking Bids on 1913 Shanghai Railway Bond Paying 7.5%
Denominated in.... what was that currency called anyway ?

(Thu May 28 1998 13:20 - ID#287186)
Escapism sounds pretty good.
MOZEL - are you related to Dr. Meissner on K2?
You are even more pessimistic than I - at least I can see through the gloom to some better futures.
As for you disregarding science fiction - you are now living what was science fiction a decade or so ago.
You are living a life even more escapist than I.
You curse at the tree while benefiting from its fruits.
Perhaps you live in an age for which you are not suited.
You can not dream.

(Thu May 28 1998 13:21 - ID#207145)
Clinton Bald Face China policy.
Just recalling how Clinton beat up on Republicans about being friendly with Red China. Remember those poor students!Those terrible Republicans how could they be so wrong-headed?

(Thu May 28 1998 13:21 - ID#213265)
@the scene
blooper -- Actually, when you get their OWN economies/peoples to buy their own product will you get the 'guaronteeeeeeed' turnaround, but even that is after the debt problem is rectified. The end day of the export driven economies is at hand.

(Thu May 28 1998 13:21 - ID#254269)
Planned Bank Holiday in Pakistan on Friday

(Thu May 28 1998 13:22 - ID#284255)
Great site.
Do they have LME stockpiles at that site?

(Thu May 28 1998 13:27 - ID#207145)
El Dorado. Iadmire your brilliance. I never really learned all those long words.
You manage your Empire State Building money . I'll manage my "curb" money, and when we fall off lets see how far we both fall. Buy low has made up so far for my lack of knowledge.

(Thu May 28 1998 13:28 - ID#254269)
Meanwhile in Indonesia ! Remember Indonesia........................????

(Thu May 28 1998 13:30 - ID#43460)
Well, this is comforting!

(Thu May 28 1998 13:32 - ID#229277)
Gollum re: Thu May 28 1998 09:39 War/Hardship/Peace/Prosperity
It is an ancient cycle, as old as man, and the stakes keep getting higher.

Ambrose Bierce defined peace succinctly: a period of cheating between two periods of fighting.

(Thu May 28 1998 13:33 - ID#57232)
Inflationary times ahead? Probably, if the dollar drops.
A. Goose: Just remembered something -- book at home, but I think this is accurate. One of the things that happens when 'fiat' currencies are under attack -- such as inflation - is hoarding of nonperishable materials, and avoidance of use of paper money, except for the shortest time possible. The shift from fiat currency to nonperishable commodities as a more secure medium of exchange is typical of virtually any historical inflationary environment.

The next question is: why is this apparently happening when the commodity price index is dropping, industrial production is likely to peak, and there is no whiff of inflation?

The answer is -- as far as I can tell -- this is not inflation in the ordinary sense -- not price inflation -- this is likely to be due to an attack on the US dollar from outside. Inflation will come later as a consequence of the dropping dollar.

Now, the next question of course is -- when will the dollar drop? And the answer is -- when the 'flight to safety' from other investments cease, or when AG decides the dollar is too strong, and he risks precipitating another SEAsia - like deflationary crisis.

I have no answer to the timing question. But -- it does look like the smart money may be strating to buy physical assets. Perhaps they know that the announcement by the EMU about gold reserves is coming soon. Why buy gold only when other non-political commodities may perform even better?

Another question for everyone -- did the Dutch sell their gold, who did they sell it to, and how much did they get above the spot price? I guess if you are the Euro Central bank Chairman elect, you get the right to sell your Country's gold before the formal reserve announcements are made. And, have you really lost any control over your gold if you sell it to the European Central Bank? Looks to me that you can have your cake and eat it ( the gold that is ) as long as you can still control gold purchases and sales. Certain percs to be EURO CB chairman, I guess!

(Thu May 28 1998 13:33 - ID#266105)
@plusiotis resplendens

Compliments of dung beetle, worth a repost--

John Disney__A
(Thu May 28 1998 13:35 - ID#24387)
Where does a goldbug go ..
I know a place .. Hot in summer .. about 50Km west
of the Cape . in valleys where they grow wine grapes .
near a farm where they make cheese from cows and goats
.. chevre brie camembert .. the mountains .. Drakensberg ...
Hotentot-Hollands .. There are leopards there.
Fast flowing rivers .. the Berg .. the Hex .. There
are rainbow trout and bass in the lakes .. Somewhere.
in that area .. There's a goldbug....

(Thu May 28 1998 13:37 - ID#207145)
Guaranteeing IS STUPID (just ask Joe Namath)
Now i'm no Broadway Joe, but most anyone will tell you that we don't have a Chinemans chance if they don't do some improving in Asia.

(Thu May 28 1998 13:40 - ID#207145)
Dollar overvalued. Market overvalued. When Asia improves ( ( please El Dorado ) Dollar ( no longer safe haven ) starts to drop, money flows out market into....GOLD.

(Thu May 28 1998 13:40 - ID#153102)
Dreaming is vastly overrated.
It's always dark on the far side of the moon. If you were born there, you would have to migrate to get some light in your life.
I'm just not going to sit around in the Rockies and wait for a moon shift while reading science fiction and hiding from FEMA.

(Thu May 28 1998 13:41 - ID#289357)

Great job on your charts!

You asked about LME stockpiles - I couldn't find them quickly, but they may be hidden in the archives or some such. Perhaps you might try to go in through the front door and will discover them.

(Thu May 28 1998 13:44 - ID#254269)
John D. sounds like ......................
...........heaven !

(Thu May 28 1998 13:45 - ID#410198)
As some know I surf between Kitco and Free Republic a all politics page,so check out this post :

(Thu May 28 1998 13:46 - ID#286279)
Just click on the blinking icons. Buy a little gold. Don't worry, be happy.

(Thu May 28 1998 13:48 - ID#213265)
@the scene
blooper -- One may buy 'low', but as in the case of the metals, it is a perception issue. There are those who will buy quite a bit lower. That too is guaranteed.

(Thu May 28 1998 13:50 - ID#207145)
investment demand for gold extremely low. Banks still selling?
Young investors think gold is a joke. I say this because they laugh when i mention it. Until active investors change, gold is dead in the water. The dollar HAS to lose face.

(Thu May 28 1998 13:50 - ID#252127)
Drop In India's 1st quarter Silver demand

Is it possible that the drop in imports is made up by buyers who use storage in London and Zurich where most of the silver shipments originate?
As for Dubai; there are quite a few rich arabs in that region who could absorb big tonnes rather quickly.

(Thu May 28 1998 13:52 - ID#333127)
to Midas
I agree with most of what you say. I made a few bucks back in late 79 early 80 and again in 97. Then I began to think I had a handle on what was happening, downhill with the pm's ever since and naturally I'm in a lot deeper. Only recent good gain was in Stillwater which I got out of at 25 about a month ago, it then went up to 28 or so. I do think gold is cheap, since 350oz. Still feel it is a giveaway but very disappointed it hasn't moved up with currency problems. Guy's like Dine's may be right but I'm getting tired of waiting.

John Disney__A
(Thu May 28 1998 13:55 - ID#24387)
LimboMan Speaks ...
In Limbo Now .. Balanced twixt puts and cash and longs ..
like being in space .. feel no gravity.
As I float here ..Reflecting on weekend flareup
between gun toters and sheepmen ..
Certain American attitudes were hardened by two
unique events .. the Civil War and the opening of the
A great novel on that latter event which Im sure
you all will have read .."Blood Meridian" -Cormac

(Thu May 28 1998 14:02 - ID#344308)

flash point for cellulose---


(Thu May 28 1998 14:04 - ID#212197)
Y2K: Advanced Contingency Planning
In a meeting of Y2K gurus in Washington D.C. last week, where inter-industry experiences are exchanged, it was reported that a U.K. power plant has distributed bicycles to the engineering employees.
The rational: if the power plant cannot supply power, the fuel stations will not work. The cars will run out of fuel.
The engineers have to come to work by bicycles to fix the problem.

Alberich the Dwarf

(Thu May 28 1998 14:36 - ID#31876)
Here's The Stock That Rhody And Chas Issued Warnings For
It closed on Friday at $.33, up 144% from previous day. Here
it is today:

(Thu May 28 1998 14:38 - ID#404246)

" I have attempted to communicate with Mr. Ed Yourdon, author of "Time Bomb 2000", on several 'a priori' assumptions made within his arguments that enhance the means by which his justifications further promote his philosophy. He has failed to respond. "

Personally I feel he just got bored trying to read your "communication" and gave up before he got to the end. You use ten times as many words per idea as mozel does, and I thought he held the record. Those of us with ADD get side tracked before we get to the end of your sentences.

" BUT - He makes lotsa money selling books and I don't so maybe "I'm" doing something wrong."

Couldn't be lack of clarity, could it?

" I have been recently contracted to supply a service to a major corporation regarding Y2K and feel that my contribution ( s ) are necessary and worth the price they are paying for this service "

You don't know yet whether you have more than one thing to contribute or not?

You are correct in that the technical problems and physical damage that the Y2K problem may bring will not cause a stock market crash. The reaction of the "masses" ( as you probably call them ) to the results of the Y2K problem is what CAN and probably will cause a social or financial crash.

I am sure that somewhere in your "rigorous analysis" you used that famous statement: "All things being equal". Which allows you to exclude the reactions of people and other variables ( that you don't like ) from your problem statement.

I have worked for engineers and scientific researchers for most of my life. This has given me a BAD ATTITUDE towards them, I admit. This is especially true concerning their ability to do the following; open a can, pick up a girl, pay bills and to know what to do when a mob wants to kick their butts. ( You are supposed to run and hide. ) That is why I ignore what "that stereotype" says about what people might or might not do.

(Thu May 28 1998 14:40 - ID#432148)
DJ to Gold ratio... back up at high
8970/292.7 = 30.64

(Thu May 28 1998 14:40 - ID#372276)
Why on earth do I need a password and username now to access the intraday gold and silver chart?

Mr. Mick
(Thu May 28 1998 14:42 - ID#345321)
Mozel - Tolerant thinks a 60 foot yacht is the answer.........
but terra firma?? No answers, as far as I can tell........

(Thu May 28 1998 14:47 - ID#229277)
Midas: The Fate of Gold
We all do it here, but it does not makes sense for us to wait for gold to rise in price in the way we'd watch a stock. This daily vigil here, looking for gold to finally begin its bull cycle is like buying property and home insurance in LA and waiting for an earthquake. A stock moves in narrow cycles depending on the performance of the corporation that issued it and the equity markets in general. The forces that move the price of gold significantly happen at a geological pace by comparison. Like an earthquake, the forces build slowly. When the move happens it does so quickly, enormously, and without warning.

I friend at work who collects ancient gold coins brought a gold coin today minted in Ionia in 675BC. It is one of a few hundred of the world's first known gold coins. How much has happened in 2773 years since then! But only in relatively recent times has gold varied much in price. The last time was in the 1970's as an aftershock from the final separation of the dollar from the fractional gold reserve system. Gold will move again, I sense far more than then, when the world's reserve currency, the US dollar, is challenged by a multiplicity of factors, including defaults on debt, inflation due to "peacekeeping" costs or an oil price explosion, equities market turnoil, competition from the Eure -- name your poison. What will the world do when it no longer believes in its paper reserve currency, the dollar? My belief is that the world will rush to the only time-tested, international reserve currency it knows: gold.

When will it happen? I don't know. In your lifetime? In all probability. Will it be an enjoyable? In some ways yes, in other ways no. I don't look forward to scratching around for a living, but I'd like more time for my friends and family.

(Thu May 28 1998 14:47 - ID#57232)
Cash copper prices from the LME
sharefin: Just in case you didn't get this. What I find interesting is that the copper price trend is very similar to the gold price trend. May be worthwhile to do a composite of all the base metals. The commodity price index may be so dominated by foodstuffs that a possible rally in base metals might be ignored.

This may be a clue that commodities may be bottoming -- promising for gold -- eventually.

(Thu May 28 1998 14:52 - ID#233199)

Please don't post long URL's wtihout putting a break after the " http://" part. The long URL's ruin the marigns for many Kitco users until the next time secion. Yes it means we'll have to cut and paste but it will allow the rest of use to use the board


(Thu May 28 1998 14:53 - ID#31876)
Homestake Mining started digging for gold in 1877, and since that time
has pulled more than 39 million ounces of gold from its
namesake South Dakota mine alone. Today, Homestake's mines
in Australia, Canada, Chile, and the US, holds reserves of
more than 20 million ounces of gold and 56 million ounces of
silver. In addition to the Homestake Mine in South Dakota,
Homestake owns or has interests in mines in California,
Nevada, Canada's Hemlo district, and Australia's Kalgoorlie
gold district. The company also owns about 17% of a major
sulfur mining operation in the Gulf of Mexico. It has
projects under development in Bulgaria, Chile, and Russia.

( Just a little of what you can find in the links below. )

Mr. Mick
(Thu May 28 1998 14:54 - ID#345321)
Indonesia nationalizes private bank..............
State Supervising Indonesia Bank

JAKARTA, Indonesia ( AP ) -- Indonesia's central bank Thursday
placed its largest privately owned bank under state supervision after
thousands of worried customers withdrew their money.

Central bank Gov. Sjahril Sabirin told a press conference that Bank
Central Asia, owned by a close friend of ex-President Suharto and two
Suharto children, had to be placed under the control of the Indonesian
Banking Restructuring Agency.

BCA was a prime target during massive rioting that swept Jakarta two
weeks ago, killing more than 500 people.

The violence led to the dramatic resignation of Suharto on May 21.

The bank is controlled by the Salim Group, the family company of close
Suharto associate, Liem Sioe Liong, who is reportedly the country's
richest man.

Suharto's eldest son, Sigit Harjojudanto, and his eldest daughter, Siti
Hardiyanti Rukmana, also have minority stakes.

Liem is a prominent member of Indonesia's ethnic Chinese, who have
become scapegoats in the eyes of many Indonesians for the country's
worst economic crisis in 30 years.

For the past several days, customers have waited for hours in lines that
stretched out into the streets outside of BCA branches.

The agency's deputy chairman Maulana said BCA would be managed
by state-owned Bank Rakyat Indonesia and Bank Negara Indonesia.

Dow Jones Newswires quoted unidentified banking sources as saying
the Salim Group had tried to keep the bank from being placed under
state supervision. They said the Salim Group had planned to inject new
capital into the bank and find foreigners to replace the two Suharto
children as shareholders.

The government said it will guarantee all depositors at BCA in line with
its policy of guaranteeing deposits at the country's other troubled banks.

Mr. Mick
(Thu May 28 1998 14:57 - ID#345321)
Boris calms the stormy seas............NOT
Yeltsin Reassures Jittery Investors

By JUDITH INGRAM Associated Press Writer

MOSCOW ( AP ) -- President Boris Yeltsin sought to reassure jittery
investors today, saying that his government would not allow the current
economic crisis to spiral out of control. Markets responded by

``Russia's financial market will not collapse. The Central Bank and
Finance Ministry have sufficient reserves to control the situation,'' Yeltsin
said after meeting with Premier Sergei Kiriyenko and other members of
his economic policy-making team.

Yeltsin reiterated to the heads of Russia's top three television networks
today that there would be no currency devaluation.

And he planned to talk by telephone later with President Clinton and
German Chancellor Helmut Kohl, to try to convince them that investors
are safe in Russia, the Interfax news agency reported.

The government's biggest fear is that the ruble will collapse, sparking
steep price rises. A decade of economic turmoil has impoverished
millions of Russians, and a new surge in the cost of living will strain the
patience of the country's 147 million people.

So far, the turbulence has been limited largely to the stock and bond
markets, and ordinary Russians have felt little impact.

The government's stabilization campaign seemed to have a soothing
effect today, as the Russian ruble was higher against the dollar by
midday and Russian stocks rebounded.

The Russian Trading Index closed 6.1 percent higher. The bond market
was mixed in busy trading.

Yeltsin also promised to continue the government shakeup begun in
March, when he dismissed former Premier Viktor Chernomyrdin and his

``Two or three people will lose their heads'' during a meeting of the
government's emergency tax commission on Friday, Yeltsin said.

And the president will sign a decree today permitting authorities to seize
tax debtors' property, Kiriyenko told reporters.

Kiriyenko told the Cabinet that the disparity between government
revenues and spending, which he said was caused by low tax
collections, had led to a crisis of confidence in the government.

It may take a stabilization package from the International Monetary
Fund to restore investor confidence, however, analysts said.

``When you have this psychological feeling, this fear on the part of
investors, it's almost like a storm that keeps buffeting the boat until the
investors know there is international support to back up the
government,'' said Charlie Ryan, general director of the United Financial
Group, a Moscow investment firm.

The Russian government says it has not asked the IMF or anyone else
for assistance, but Deputy Finance Minister Oleg Vyugin acknowledged
that such a loan could help ``ease the situation very quickly.''

A team from the IMF was due to arrive in Moscow later today. But the
IMF's representative to Russia said late Wednesday that no bailout was
in the works.

(Thu May 28 1998 15:01 - ID#252127)
Palladium revalations...What's next? Who unloaded?

(Thu May 28 1998 15:03 - ID#227168)
Gulp to all the Gulpers
My doctor told me you have a Tolerant one condition to the wine of Niagara ---So Bet It. All this heat Maybe bleach is the next buy? ---150% interest rates in Russia How about someSlavic burgers EB Bring your own chlorine --Ebswimmingupstreamagainstthefishysmell Away to find the nets Ted built and the DOW-n --Who said Gulp Gulp Whooops.

(Thu May 28 1998 15:04 - ID#340302)
@ALL...I love reading all the various conjectures...
...pertaining to COMEX gold stocks.

However, gentlemen, you should be aware of one salient fact: there are now major figures ( beyond Kitcoites and the usual PM traders ) who are aware of the COMEX status quo. The information has been disseminated far and wide. Moreover, these same major figures have most likely taken a good look at WB's actions in the silver market and seen the explosive results.

So ask yourself these questions: if you knew about the extremely low level of gold inventory at COMEX....if you had about a billion dollars of net worth buring a hole in your pockets...would you not be tempted to "test" the COMEX and its ability to provide real physical?

Who would not be tempted?

Who would not be interested in seeing what 100 million dollars can do to such a market?

Of course.



(Thu May 28 1998 15:05 - ID#222235)
@The Russian crisis in
a little more detail -,1051,ART-9283,00.html

(Thu May 28 1998 15:07 - ID#222235)
Was that last link too long? It's ok on my machine, but it would be

good to know just where the too-long ones start. Please let me know if I blasted out your margins.

John Disney__A
(Thu May 28 1998 15:10 - ID#24387)
Buddha says Platinum is naughty
.. When RJ finds out what you've done he'll get
you with his rat tat tat.
.. This is an example of the way things ought to
be and the way things are ..
.. and also of A guy being right for all the wrong
.. The market is without logic .. one can only
follow .. like following an old Buddhist monk in the
dark who leaves a trail of koans to guide you ..
and you have only a candle.

(Thu May 28 1998 15:11 - ID#20748)
Sharp comment on Bloomberg TV
"Talk of central bank sales left gold steady Thursday."

(Thu May 28 1998 15:11 - ID#335379)
BART KINTER, Password...

(Thu May 28 1998 15:13 - ID#207145)
100% in cash and antsy.
Guys, can this correctionary inviornment be an entry for some small gold investment? Need some guidamnce as to risk, reward.

(Thu May 28 1998 15:15 - ID#153102)
@Hardcase @MrMick
Hardcase: Oh, Loquacious One, methinks thee art guilty of the sin thee denounces. ( P.S. Stop sending my posts to yer friends if yer gonna' dog me. )

MrMick The Cape: R.S.A. highly recommended
Costa Rica. Welcomes Americans. Has private Banks.
Argentina. Many European immigrants there in colonies. Euro-Gold connection. Already burned out on socialism in depth. Recommended by Soros and Stallone. A one time destination for expatriate American friends of liberty driven from their homeland by Devils like Ambrose Bierce.

(Thu May 28 1998 15:15 - ID#335379)
BART KINTER, Password...
Hello Bart:
The password block just dissapears and does not tell me if it did or did not accept...
other than the fact that I cannot get through....
Is the password being used to monitor traffic? Seems a little Orwelian
Please explain...

Excellent site


(Thu May 28 1998 15:16 - ID#194311)
russians are shipping ... not shopping ... says SBC-UBS PM desk.

got to keep those 'o's and 'i's spearated.

gold's oversold ... buy or fry.

(Thu May 28 1998 15:16 - ID#227168)
Heavy Metal Died Years Ago
To Mr. Serious and Mr. Defender Have one of those Killer drinks ---Tea maybe?

(Thu May 28 1998 15:16 - ID#57232)
Second attempt at LME metals post
Sorry about the margins. Can someone tell me how long is ok, because I do not have any problems!




This time, please replace the x with a t, and splice together.

(Thu May 28 1998 15:16 - ID#252127)
Palladium revelations...What's next? Who unloaded?
If it ain't the Rooskies, is it the Tiger Fund?

(Thu May 28 1998 15:20 - ID#153102)
Wait for the break to the downside. ( Maybe til your next life. )

(Thu May 28 1998 15:28 - ID#207145)
@Mozele, thanks, my sentiments also.
Everything looks lousy, but seasonals are good ( 1st month ) . Usually go
long now. Might play Europe, might go fishing. Bonds look good. How can that help gold? Damn.Where are my sinkers? BYE.

(Thu May 28 1998 15:29 - ID#227168)
Yes --Us Canadians Know Everything--Gulp --Gulp
Disney Not at the races ---Must be damn hot ---Whats a gambler to do? How about sing a song Hang on Droopy Hang On  Away to find the disappearing investors.

(Thu May 28 1998 15:33 - ID#344308)

flash point for cellulose---

the limb.....picks for the future........
..from the past.


(Thu May 28 1998 15:33 - ID#287193)
@ Dear Bart...Yes this is a super forum
and the very best on the www.
Today I was in a few talk-sites and all are very slow, S.I. site awful !
But!!!! My screen on Kitco is at least 35% wider than normal.
Did I do something ..maybe punch a wrong button??
Help! Help!
Thank you,

(Thu May 28 1998 15:36 - ID#350179)
Bank Holiday

(Thu May 28 1998 15:40 - ID#210235)
@Yesterday's market action underscores that globally,
the worst still lies ahead.

(Thu May 28 1998 15:44 - ID#210235)
I've got this theory
that if the link fits into the preview window without wrapping, it won't blow out your margins. So yell if this is wrong.

(Thu May 28 1998 15:46 - ID#31876)
Hi Donald! Glad You're Not Here Today. (Just Kidding)
I figured you'd rib me about Viagra making fingers
stiff and causing my typos.

(Thu May 28 1998 15:50 - ID#227168)
Ug --Uga -Goo --Goo
Fat Indians Cell-DamageComes from the over indulgence of white mans whisky hooch ---Solution Sell Indian trinkets for prosaic --Away to catch Tee Pee Power

Aragorn III
(Thu May 28 1998 15:50 - ID#212323)
Everybody read MM's 15:36
This could happen ANYWHERE! gold?

(Thu May 28 1998 15:54 - ID#244418)
I noticed you mentioned some locations.

Do you have any opinion about Belize?

Your posts on Saturday re: having no illusions

about what is coming were helpful.

Aragorn III
(Thu May 28 1998 15:56 - ID#212323)
Mozel...I would love to sit down and enjoy several beers in your company...
...but we would have NOTHING to talk about. "Two plus two is four."
"Yep, two plus two IS four."
"That's right."
"Yep, FOUR it is!"
"And always will be..."

(Thu May 28 1998 16:05 - ID#431116)
Servhard...must be your browser..
My screen is normal

(Thu May 28 1998 16:05 - ID#227168)
Chretian --Now we can save the Canadian Dollar --Nuke em
Paki-Power 5 nukes and no toques ---Too Damn warm ---I thought they were stupid peoplo Which should end the Clinton scandal ---Shit! I want a bomb ---I think I hate a few people ---Boooooooooooom

(Thu May 28 1998 16:08 - ID#342315)
Silverbaron re next gold contract
Lost my marks. What's the next gold contract and symbol? TIA

(Thu May 28 1998 16:16 - ID#14431)
gold close?
anyone know the closing price of spot gold today? ( Can't seem to find a current, closing quote.

thanks, fergie

(Thu May 28 1998 16:20 - ID#317193)
Went gold...go gold?
Well, gold certainly...went! Will it now go? Perhaps more to the point will gold go down further than spot $293. I can't predict the furture any more than any other human.

Query: how many days, weeks or months in the past 18 years has spot gold been below $290?

Past performance is no guarantee of future.....blah, blah etc.

What's your downside risk with gold at $293?


(Thu May 28 1998 16:22 - ID#287193)
Servhard (@ Dear Bart...Yes this is a super forum) ID#287193:
Servhard; Are you using Kitco's Frames version? If so, did you know that the left margin that separates the discussion screen from the graphs screen ( on your left ) is adjustable? This allows you to change the amount of screen you allocate to the discussion area. Place your mouse pointer on the separator line, click and drag to suit your preference. Also works to fix some of the posts that show up with irregular formating.


(Thu May 28 1998 16:24 - ID#413195)
in sack-o-tomatoes
Bought some Oct platinum calls the other day on the strength of RJs penetrating analysis. I've always taken a hit when I faded him, and a hit when I ignored him, so this time I'm onboard after a little personal due diligence.

But plat down a good ten bucks since my purchase. And Russia is apparently shipping. But how much?

I'm gettin' nervous here, guys! Talk to me.

EB . . . I like that 'V' talk . . .

Just don't start talkin' about that backslash '\'.

Almost doubled my position today, but held off . . . What to do? . . . What to do? . . .


EB, got a price target?

( Not too afraid to buy more, BTW. But some more of that analysis'd sure be welcome right about now ) .

(Thu May 28 1998 16:26 - ID#404246)

I'm not dogging you. If your extra words weren't worth your ideas I wouldn't send them to my friends claiming how important they were. I think that you are one of the top idea producers on Kitco. But you are right to object, it was stupid, unkind and gave the wrong impression for me to mention your name in connection with his. I am sorry and I apologize for it. So please don't be angry with me, no offense was intended, I just wasn't thinking.

It could be Attention Deficit Disorder ( ADD ) brought on by some childhood abuse that I can't remember right now, or just the fact that all those years have dug real deep grooves in the purple areas of my brain not allowing me to see into other groves that could then be used to hold other descriptions while maintaining the major thread of the idea seperate from those around it but for whatever reason I tend to get lost thinking about all those possible meanings in descriptive words that are used in long sentences not to mention the fact that I don't understand "grammer" worth a flip either. Darn I guess I do it too... {;- )

(Thu May 28 1998 16:28 - ID#350179)
Saudi output to increase by 1.5 tonnes

(Thu May 28 1998 16:30 - ID#43349)
smoke and mirrors
Did you ever wonder how a guy like Clinton
from Arkansas could beat a guy like the incumbant
President Bush who was at the helm when the US had
beat the fourth largest army in the world in about
a hundred hours with fewer than 200 casualties and
who was also there during the time of Glasnost and
the collapse of the USSR?

(Thu May 28 1998 16:31 - ID#402148)
Anyone have the website address of Chris Carolan's Spiral Clander research?

Thanks in advance.


(Thu May 28 1998 16:34 - ID#288369)
@Today's Inscrutable Index: 293
Ron, sakomaters.........Buy Rangy with your extra a brother out.

The McNeil/Lehrer/Studio Report on Rangy: "It closed at one". ( the end ) ( cut to commercial )

(Thu May 28 1998 16:34 - ID#14431)
Gollum--Clinton beating Bush
Easy. Bush didn't seem to want the job as much as Klinton did.

(Thu May 28 1998 16:35 - ID#404246)
fergie__A (gold close?)
May 28 closing;

June -- $292.70 13:29
August -- $295.60 13:44
December - $299.80 13:29

These were the closing quotes I got from my brokers web site.

(Thu May 28 1998 16:39 - ID#14431)
HARDCASE--gold close


(Thu May 28 1998 16:50 - ID#286279)
Now what?
1- Click [Add/Find Users]
2- Click [ICQ Main Search Engine]
3- enter 11998901

(Thu May 28 1998 17:06 - ID#31876)
Bart, Please Excuse. This Is Funny!
Clinton has his e-mail address caught in the wringer again.

(Thu May 28 1998 17:09 - ID#254269)
Trouble getting in here ? Anyone else had trouble getting into K1 ? Tried it a
couple of times over the last half hour. Now, I'm afraid to leave.

(Thu May 28 1998 17:10 - ID#286234)
maybe this one is habitable.

(Thu May 28 1998 17:10 - ID#26793)
Dow/Gold Ratio = 30.59 The 50 day moving average is 29.78

(Thu May 28 1998 17:14 - ID#43460)
Gollum, I know, I know, teacher1 call on me!
IMHO Mr. Bush was first elected on the assumption that he'd not raise taxes and continue the socially moderate Reagan platform. He lost that precious last few percent of voters to Perot ( BTW, is a Perot any relation to a Gollum? ) over those plus the NAFTA issue. Read my lips boys and girls. The swing voters are not moderately liberal they're moderately conservative, by damn! ( $-^] )

(Thu May 28 1998 17:15 - ID#26793)
XAU/Spot Ratio = .260 The 50 day moving average is .272. My database contains 33 occasions where the XAU has closed in the 76.XX range. The close today ranks as 30th in relation to the price of gold. The number 1 rank was recorded on 12/31/86 with a gold price of $404.90, an XAU of 76.26 and a XAU/AU ratio of .188

(Thu May 28 1998 17:15 - ID#390415)
Beatin' that Y2k horse
WetGold - You are essentially the first person I have ever heard from who met both of these criteria:
( 1 ) Asserted a reasonably high degree of personal experience and knowledge about Y2k
( 2 ) Did not think it represented an extremely serious and underestimated world crisis in the making

(Thu May 28 1998 17:17 - ID#26793)
Gold/Silver Ratio = 57.60

(Thu May 28 1998 17:19 - ID#253418)
One of the worst days yet
This has to go down as one of the worst days yet in the metals and mining
shares attempt to find their path. The metals were down, failing in the last couple of hours it appears. This dispite the fact that we have more atomic testing in the Pakistan/India arena and dispite the fact that as Goose and Farfel have brought to our attention there was a big shift in inventories at the comex. In other words NOTHING is bullish for gold. And what do the mining shares do - they rally, even SWC with PD down $25. Why - because they follow the stock market like a dumb puppy.

It's about enough for me to throw in the towel on these metal markets and go back to chasing the most active tech stocks on the big board.

WHAT WILL MAKE GOLD RISE - ONLY THE DECLINE IN THE DOLLAR - which Preacher you will notice is now above 100, again.

Farfel why would any body want to follow WB lead and buy up alot of precious metals as you suggest those dark mysterious people in the know would do who know what happening at the Comex. Why would they follow WB?
He bought had to disclose his position and pop down came the markets. Seems there are forces much bigger than WB who can push the market in the direction they want. Anybody will and idle 100 million and an eye on the comex stcoks of gold is probably very much aware of WB, to date, no where street, and the liklihood that central banks will fill any vacumn that arises in COMEX.

Its a bear folks.

(Thu May 28 1998 17:19 - ID#187218)
Mr. or Ms. HARDCASE@14:38 (not sure of gender)
As I predicted ( many months ago on this forum ) you have fallen into the trap of supplying a detailed 'personal attack' while falling short of a specific problem resolution. If, in fact, boring statements entering your alleged mind are unable to handle being 'side-tracked before we get to the end of your sentences' then you need to join ( perhaps ) a chat-room along the lines of "". I could easily lie to you telling you how much I make publishing but the fact is that I do for personal and professional reasons and not monetary ones.

I'm not sure you are aware of the professionals on this forum that greatly contribute to the knowledge-base and promotion of PMs for free. Although you have become familiar with the insights of Mr. mozel ( a great contributor ) . BTW, I am not so bold as to put myself in this circle ) . I, in fact, have a great deal of respect and admiration for the professional and intellectually qualified posters on this site and usually don't respond to the 'masses' ( your words ) with 'bad attitudes' ( your words ) toward researchers, et al, having the inability to perform mundane treatment of minor tasks ( are you still with me - if so, get the dictionary for some earlier words ) .

Your hostility is founded in some deeper mystery enshrouded in an enigma ( Cf: Red Baron ) and I would appreciate if you voluntarily expose this to the group so that we can move forward toward more furtile discussions here. Perhaps you get try to get sympathy from Mr. mozel since you it is obvious by you most recent posting that you require much attention and backing.

While it may appear that my words are intended to offend you - it is not my intent to do so - despite the overwhelming array of statistical evidence in its favor ( pedantic enough ----- hmmmmmmmm,,,,,, cf: tolerant1 ) . I am required by nature to respond ( only 1 time Bart ) to personal attacks. You may recall my apology ( in advance ) for not choosing the proper syntax. However, I do stick by my opinions since they are well thought out.

Imitation is the most sincerest form of flattery - thank you HARDCASE.

BTW: the reason for "contribution ( s ) " is philosophical - the 'contribution' is the sum of all the 'contributions' and therefore the parsing of the word depends on the where you choose to place your interests. If you are observing the "Y2K FIX", then, it is 'contribution'. If you are interested and responsible for the individual pieces and each detailed component, as a contract might specify, then 'contributions' is more appropriate.

If you've ever read anything by "JACOB BRONOWSKI" you could appreciate that he chooses each word carefully as to provide the greatest insight into his thoughts and meaning. I may not write as well as he but he is an excellent model by which to follow ( Cf: "The Ascent of Man" ) .

I hereby consider this dialogue closed and hope we can have more discussions in the future with which we mutually agree --- perhaps PMs.

go GOLD!

(Thu May 28 1998 17:24 - ID#413195)
in sack-o-tomatoes
STUDIO.R: Man, I must have a poison keyboard, here or something . . . 80% of the time I post something, Kitco goes down . . . Maybe it's interference from the secret decoder ring I got from the VRWC that screws up Bart's server.

Rangy? You mean like a chicken or somethin'?

Just kiddin'. Actually, stocks are WAY, WAY, WAY over my head. I have enough trouble following a bouncing ball . . . It's an inferiority complex type thing I have with all things having to do with business, and it goes back to an ill-advised parnership I was in, involving one hot-lemonade stand set up 40 miles west of Wichita, Kansas, on Interstate 70, during the blizzard of '58.

Nope, I don't understand the first thing about business, and never will.

But I *am* doing my thing for gold, rest assured, having been long it for the last year. And I'm going to keep at it, too -- only now I've got to find some non-biz way to finance my irrational obsession, since the powder's gettin' all wet. Platinum seemed like a good idea two days ago . . .

(Thu May 28 1998 17:30 - ID#187218)
I'm not sure if this is a compliment. I appreciate it if so, if not, let's discuss....

As I've stated earlier I had been a regular observer and poster since the inception of this forum. Rather than repeat myself let me just point out that I am well versed in the technical issues and have 'practical' experience that goes back many years. Some view this as a 'falling out' since my views are not traditional... may I add that Alan Greenspan's view's were once in line with those of us Kitcoites BUT something happened on the way to stardom... Mr. Greenspan may still hold these beliefs but he is obviously not true to them, if so. This is the point by which I lose my respect for him assuming this is true.

Thanx for your comments...

(Thu May 28 1998 17:33 - ID#43349)
Could be, but one would think it would take a bit
more to lose to an unproven after such a magnificent

Did you notice how this guy Perot showed up to split
the vote, dropped out leaving Clinton with a good
margin, got back in when WC was in danger of losing
his lead, and then dropped back out again? Without
such a peculiar turn of events I doubt that the powers
behind WC could have done it.

(Thu May 28 1998 17:36 - ID#288295)
Hopefull @ Spiral Calendar

I believe that Chris Carolan is in some way affilicated with Bob Prechter's Elliott Wave orgainization - I don't think he has a web site.

(Thu May 28 1998 17:37 - ID#410215)
..... Platinum .....

Bought a lot of platinum between 380 and 410 recently. Bought more at 370, if we get a drop tomorrow, I will buy even more. Some of this is necessary cost averaging to bring the break even down, but a lot is simple greed. In almost any year I could mention, I would be thrilled to by platinum at 370. With the current supply situation, I am thrilled squared.

With such a brutally down week, I dont expect the overseas markets to hold onto short positions through Monday, which is first delivery notice for the June contract. The short covering rally should bring us back to at least 400 in the next week.

If palladium soars Monday, I will be well pleased with all my platinum trades, even those as high as $410. They will be profitable.

The fly in the ointment is that Tiger was selling in New York today ( rumored ) . It is Tiger ( rumored ) that has put palladium out there to be sold. This sudden liquidity enabled the shorts to step up, but I think a 60 - 80 dollar per ounce profit is good enough for a week, yes?

They dont want to get caught having to deliver the metal.


(Thu May 28 1998 17:38 - ID#26793)
Mexico "not worried" about two back-to-back record lows for the peso.

(Thu May 28 1998 17:40 - ID#288295)
chas @ next Au contract

August 98 - I think designated GC98M

(Thu May 28 1998 17:42 - ID#26793)
Dealers can't figure out where the palladium is coming from.

(Thu May 28 1998 17:44 - ID#350179)
Pakistan State of Emergency
From Yahoo:

From Pakistan Business Recorder

Apologies if posted previously.

(Thu May 28 1998 17:44 - ID#413195)
in sack-o-tomatoes
RJ: Thank you, sir. Thank you cubed.

I'm buyin' more at sun-up.

Hat's off.


(Thu May 28 1998 17:46 - ID#390415)
Not a compliment, nor a negative in any way. It is just that there is a Catch-22 surrounding Y2k, in that most Y2k commentators are in one of these two groups:
( 1 ) Neck-deep in it, making a living off of it, and preaching doom to come from Y2k problems
( 2 ) Not qualified by knowledge or experience to make a judgement, and pooh-poohing the significance of the Y2k problem.

Those in group ( 1 ) have every reason to be unknowingly and unintentionally biased, and this detracts from their credibility, while those in group ( 2 ) are discounted for lack of authority to speak.

Let's face it: Oncologists are the ones most aware of the problem of cancer, environmentalists are the ones most worried about the environment. You do not find many people who have devoted their lives to the study of the environment who believe society is doing too much to protect it. You do not find many policeman who believe there is too much law enforcement. And, accordingly, there are not too many Y2k experts who think the problem is overblown. But where else can I go for a reliable opinion on Y2k?

I am a software engineer, but a Y2k dilettante. From what I know about software, and how hard it is to modify a big software system, and how much trouble one little error can cause, I lean toward the opinions of the Y2k Cassandras. But not with great conviction.

Frankly, I find myself mostly hoping for whatever Y2k scenario allows me to escape whole from my disastrous foray into gold investing.

(Thu May 28 1998 17:46 - ID#242325)
Jims: I see today's action very differently. The faxt that the gold stocks rallied modestly ( and some on very high volume ) even as bullion fell another buck or so is quite encouraging.

(Thu May 28 1998 17:46 - ID#288295)

Sorry for the typos - this tiny webtv keyboard gets the best of me some time. ( ;^ ) )

(Thu May 28 1998 17:51 - ID#340302)
Perception and the Plat/Palladium Markets...(and Gold too)....
After suffering RJ's recent interrogation vis a vis PDG's, I cannot help but make several comments...

First, I underscore that RJ is a sharp cookie. Never ever denied the fact and never will. As I stated in previous posts, I categorically accept that he knows a great deal more about Plat/Palladium than I. In general, I only have followed them from a layman's occasional interest...or from the interest of a hobby economist. I have never traded in those particular white metals ( and prefer not to do so for various idiosyncratic reasons ) .

However, as I have learned in the past in some of my own market moves ( especially over this past decade ) , sometimes a person can be too smart for his own good. He may perceive truths about things that the average trader or investor knows not.

In other words, he may be ahead of his time.

From a layman's perspective, when you hear that the Russian economy is collapsing, then you can only assume that they will sell whatever they can to shore it up. Inevitably, Plat and palladium would be included in the distress sale.

Even if it were categorically true that it is physically impossible for Russia to sell anymore Plat/Palladium, unfortunately, that little piece of esoterica is not necessarily common knowledge to the average trader/investor.

The populist perception of what transpires in the metals markets is ultimately what drives those markets. Analogously, the populist perception of Wall Street equities will determine how long the current vertical mania lasts. The fundamental truths indicating a preposterously overvalued stock market have not yet altered current populist perceptions...and they never will! Truthful words and images -- disseminated by various media, columnists, analysts, pundits, etc. -- do NOT affect Americans in their daily lives and are devoid of meaning.

At this point in time, it will take some kind of indigenous tangible shock to alert Americans to the problems spreading across the world like a raging wildfire.

For example, in the Carter years, it took long lines at the gas pumps for Americans to realize there were substantive problems in the economy.

Likewise, it will take a real visible negative event inside American borders for the citizenry to recognize that something is wrong with the global economy. On the day that such a negative event manifests itself, then -- and only then -- will American markets experience their own unique form of hell. At that point, Gold ( in U.S. Dollar terms ) will skyrocket. The government will not be able to prevent the phenomenon ( because the People will no longer trust or have faith in the government ) and the People will demand and seek possession of the world's historically safest asset.



ADDENDUM NOTE: although a tangible negative domestic event will be the trigger in bringing American equities and bond markets back to reality, one must realize that such a negative event is certainly NOT the only factor that would necessarily send Gold skyward.

Obviously, specific actions within the Gold market itself could cause Gold to skyrocket independent of any real problems occurring in the American economy ( See my earlier post ) .

(Thu May 28 1998 17:51 - ID#229277)
Gollum: The Machine saw in Clinton a man without principle, a weak man with
a sad compulsion to be liked, who could be influenced to sell out the interests of the middle class. The middle class could not identify with Bush.

(Thu May 28 1998 17:52 - ID#410215)
..... Platinum .....

Russia is NOT selling. They have no legal authority to do so, the have no quotas, no talks, no agreements, and NO PALLADIUM!

I posted here a couple months ago a supposition that Tiger financed the last half of 1997 Russian shipments and shipped from their own 2.5 million ounce holdings. They made some serious $ in the middle. Any physical palladium coming onto the market, is coming from Tiger. Nobody else has any.

If Tiger sold all its palladium today, it would not make up for even the last six months of zero shipments. Then where will the metal be found?

I believe in platinum, and I believe it is a much better price now than when I believed before that I believed it would rise. You believe it?

If folks would like to shout at me hereabouts, I will hold my response.

But if platinum is back at $400 next week, I will gloat.

The price of the shouting is the gloating.

Uh Huh

(Thu May 28 1998 17:52 - ID#254269)
Tiger Fund; @ RJ, JUlian Robertson will be the guest on Adam Smith's
MoneyLine next Monday night June 1st.

(Thu May 28 1998 17:56 - ID#43349)
The big companies and government agencies are
continually updating their hardware and software
and for the last couple of years requireing thier
vendors be Y2K compliant. At times even paranoid
about it, so I kind of think there will not be too
much problem arise in that sector.

On the other hand, many smaller concerns are rather
complacent and, beleive it or not, there are even
some who haven't even heard of the problem. There
will be opportunities for trouble there.

(Thu May 28 1998 17:56 - ID#57232)
Caught in the wringer?
Leland: Couldn't resist posting regards your 17:06. That is a leak to end all leaks. Anatomically and journalistically speaking.

Matt Drudge is really becoming a thorn in BC's side -- all the hot news about BC anywhere in the world winds up on his site -- often days before it gets out in the mainstream press. It is very clear Matt Drudge is well connected in the jounalism circles -- the Woodward and Bernstein of the late 90's.

Now Blumenthal has said he will testify if asked. Bet he thinks he won't be asked -- bet the Supreme court says he has to.

(Thu May 28 1998 17:59 - ID#43349)
I think the key word is Machine. And a man with
a past is a man who can be used.

(Thu May 28 1998 17:59 - ID#340302)
@JIMS....I have an appointment with an accountant...
...but will address your questions later.



(Thu May 28 1998 18:02 - ID#340302)
@JIMS...howevever, in the meantime, read my previous post... real domestic American shocks, in order to understand why the odds greatly favor a gold bull over a bear.



(Thu May 28 1998 18:06 - ID#43349)
Could be, but I think the Russians are kind of
weird. If they saw their economy to be collapsing
they would be just as likely to hoard what they
have even more tightly than to try to plug the

If I was one of the Russians lucky enough to have
any real wealth I might even be tempted to help
the economy collapse so as to be the last man standing

These people are not known for their com[assion for the

(Thu May 28 1998 18:06 - ID#176200)
Global Economy...Island of Prosperity...Dance Band on the Titanic
Just a short 2 years ago, GATT, NAFTA,GLOBAL ECONOMY were all that was in the
news and how wonderful its all going to be. Free trade and everything heavilly intertwined.
We will sell to them and they to us. What a lovely world it will be...
Now when Brokerage firms comment on the Asia crisis, Russia meltdown,nukes in India
and Pakistan its ( gruff-grovel ) "we dont see that that will have any significant
impact on the U.S. equity and currency markets." Perception is reality!
Right now everybody believes this is the truth. We here on this forum think differently.
Ladies and Gentlemen, you will wake up to it! No predictions, no techinical charts,
no guru gods will get it right. Just plain kaput... Sure there will be all kinds of signs,
"if this happens or that, XAU bla-bla-bla". But its all meaningless in kaos.
When people pull their heads out of sand in their little sandbox and realize that
there is a foul odor in the air caused by burning money its "KATIE BAR THE DOOR"

If you want to make money go to the stock market. If you want to preserve what you
have to feed your families, you have come to the right place!
After all, what FINANCIAL INSTRUMENT is good as gold?
Just gold... No promise, no paper.
Are the powers that be trying desperatly to keep gold under wraps?
Sure they are. However, the skids are being greased by events worldwide.

Mr. Mozel has been shouting from the top of his hill what I think is the
truth about our lousey government. Time will prove this out.

Y2K should be self explanatory. Heed!


(Thu May 28 1998 18:15 - ID#410215)
..... Farfel could not resist. He likes discussing PGMs .....

Farfel wrote: "Even if it were categorically true that it is physically impossible for Russia to sell anymore Plat/Palladium, unfortunately, that little piece of esoterica is not necessarily common knowledge to the average trader/investor."


How many average investors invest in palladium? Zero? It is a very esoteric metal. I have not traded palladium since those heady days last June when I would move the market 10 - 20 dollars on the weight of my own trades. Only in a tiny market like palladium can one really move it on your own.

According to you: One would hear that Russia is collapsing. One would also assume that Russia would sell whatever it can. One knows Russia produces palladium. One invests in palladium. But one would not know the Russians are shipping no metal or have no authority to do so? Seems a stretch.

You also wrote: "The populist perception of what transpires in the metals markets is ultimately what drives those markets."

Yet you claim above the market is too esoteric. Palladium is played by the big funds and industrial consumers. Your last post removes all doubt that you do not know these markets. Perception plays Zero role in palladium. Most people dont even know what it is.

It is a commodity, required by law, and is running out. Period.

I wish you the best in you gold plans. Try not to think of the 35,000 tons owned by Central Banks, or the tens of thousands of tones sprinkled everywhere in the world.



Your ( and others ) constant drumming about COMEX stocks sounds like it actually means something. To put into perspective what the numbers mean, set them beside the ten of thousands of TONS in the world. A tiny, tiny, tiny, tiny fraction, yes?

Now add up all the Platinum and palladium ever produced in the world. Only 8% has ever found its way into private investors hands. The rest is consumed; it is gone. They keep passing new laws, technology gets introduced, old technology made better, and demand is increasing.

Supply is falling

There are no reserves

That is what you look for in a trade.


(Thu May 28 1998 18:21 - ID#298259)
Yahoo prescious metals update...
``We have heard of Russian palladium sales through Almaz which began earlier this week, even though officially Russia has not resumed exporting PGMs ( platinum group metals ) ,'' one US PGM refinery source said.

``With official sales likely to resume soon anyway, speculators are liquidating their positions in palladium,'' he said.

(Thu May 28 1998 18:21 - ID#20748)
Real Nuclear News. Lifted from Avid.
deesse . . Thu, May 28, 3:42PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
Pakistan has set off five nuclear "tests" Sanctions have been quickly ordered and China reported the tests "within minutes" suggesting some cooperation between China and Pakistan. .............................but that is not the real news!!!

deesse . . Thu, May 28, 3:43PM CST ( -0600 GMT ) to the real news, World leaders react with stunned silence...

deesse . . Thu, May 28, 3:43PM CST ( -0600 GMT ) REDMOND ( BNN ) --World leaders reacted with stunned silence as Microsoft Corp. ( MSFT ) conducted an underground nuclear test at a secret facility in eastern Washington state. The device, exploded at 9:22 am PDT ( 1622 GMT/12:22 pm EDT ) today, was timed to coincide with talks between Microsoft and the US Department of Justice over possibleantitrust action.

"Microsoft is going to defend its right to market its products byany and all necessary means," said Microsoft CEO Bill Gates. "Notthat I'm anti-government" he continued, "but there would be few tears shed in the computer industry if Washington were engulfed in a bath of nuclear fire." Scientists pegged the explosion at around 100 kilotons. "I nearly dropped my latte when I saw the seismometer" explained University of Washington geophysicist Dr. Whoops Blammover, "At first I thought it was Mt. Rainier, and I was thinking, damn, there goes the mountain bike vacation." 

In Washington, President Clinton announced the US Government would boycott all Microsoft products indefinitely. Minutes later, the President reversed his decision. "We've tried sanctions since lunchtime, and they don't work," said the President. Instead, the administration will initiate a policy of "constructive engagement" with Microsoft. Microsoft's Chief Technology Officer Nathan Myrhvold said the test justified Microsoft's recent acquisition of the Hanford Nuclear Reservation from the US Government. Not only did Microsoft acquire "kilograms of weapons grade plutonium" in the deal, said Myrhvold, "but we've finally found a place to dump those millions of unsold copies of Microsoft Bob." Myrhvold warned users not to replace Microsoft N products with rival operating systems. "I can neither confirm nor deny the existence of a radioisotope thermoelectric generator inside of every Pentium II microprocessor," said Myrhvold, "but anyone who installs an OS written by a bunch of long-hairs on the Internet is going to get what they deserve."

The existence of an RTG in each Pentium II microprocessor would explain why the microprocessors, made by the Intel Corporation, run so hot. The Intel chips "put out more heat than they draw in electrical power" said Prof. E. Thymes of MIT. "This should finally dispell those stories about cold fusion." 

Rumors suggest a second weapons development project is underway in California, headed by Microsoft rival Sun Microsystems. "They're doing all of the development work in Java," said one source close to the project. The development of a delivery system is said to be holding up progress. "Write once, bomb anywhere is still a dream at the moment." 
Meanwhile, in Cupertino, California, Apple interim-CEO Steve Jobs was rumored to be in discussion with Oracle CEO Larry Ellison about deploying Apple's Newton technology against Microsoft. "Newton was the biggest bomb the Valley has developed in years," said one hardware engineer. "I'd hate to be around when they drop that product a second time."

(Thu May 28 1998 18:22 - ID#153102)
@AragonIII @Winston
Aragorn Well, you're right there. Two plus two does equal four. ( Tipping the beer filled mug ! )

Winston Hadn't thought about Belize. Make the case.

(Thu May 28 1998 18:31 - ID#43349)
Wellll....two plus two does often equal four but
it kind of depends on the number system and
language you are using.

There are rumors that some speculators are planning
on forcing the sum down to three....

(Thu May 28 1998 18:35 - ID#227168)
Can Americans spell --yes ----DOW
Never-ending how do you spell Jamaican? I love reggae music New space station to investigate the effects of eperstein rays on Gold enthusiasts --This study should eventually decide why people invest in metals N.A.S.A will back the necessary study with American tax dollars ---Away to the great basin of investors that love instinct Oh My--- skunk Poop.

Mr. Mick
(Thu May 28 1998 18:40 - ID#345321)
Mozel - re: Argentina - forget it - they have NO gold............
none, zilch, nada. Sold it all to AG and company. As for the rest, I doubt that they would offer anything more than a temporary haven. Long term outlook is the same there as it is for anywhere else.

(Thu May 28 1998 18:40 - ID#57232)
Heading home -- long day -- up since 4AM
gollum: I am sorry to say, I have the same impression of the Russians who are at the helm. I know there are Russians who are like us, but the problem is that the political/religious purges have taken the best out of action, and it will take at least a generation to replenish. In the meanwhile, the right kind of leadership is not there ( no offense, Oris -- I am not referring to you ) .

There was a message given to three children in Fatima ( Italy? ) over 50 years ago, which consisted of 3 or 4 prophesies. This was considered significant enough that the message was transcibed, and eventually given to the Pope ( who suppressed it because he thought it was too controversial ) . Some of the prophesies are coming out now. One of the prophesies was interpreted as predicting that the Russian Communist government would fall - it did. Another prophesy was apparently that if the rest of the world did not restore faith and religion to the Russian people, the seeds of Armeggadon would be sown. Given the successful resistance of the Russian Church ( purged by the Communists for years ) to foreign missionaries, and the current worsening of the Russian economic system, I fear that this prophesy will also come true. There is a fourth prophesy, possible yet to bve fulfilled, but I cannot find out what it is.

Of course, with knowledge of current events, it does not take a prophet to see what will happen if all of those Russian missles get in the hands of an extremist group.

I believe that our future is not fixed in stone -- that it is fluid. But I do not have a clue as to how one can prevent what seems to be happening in Russia, and elsewhere in the world. I guess the bottom line is never to lose faith in the goodness of the human spirit -- no matter how evil certain world leaders and others seem to be. I do not think the passive faith in god alone approach is the right one -- we must all be active in any way we can to prevent the worst -- and we must never give up, no matter how bad things may eventually get over the next 20 years or so. Here's to the human spirit, wherever it may still soar, and may it soar in our children like it does in us, so that we may never die.

(Thu May 28 1998 18:43 - ID#410215)
..... Frustrated .....

The Japanese announced last week that the have not even SPOKEN to representatives from Almaz in several months. Not a word. There are no lines of communication whatsoever.

An export decree must be signed by Russian Finance Minister ( who currently does not exist ) , quotas are figured, quota numbers are brought to Japan and used to negotiate shipments, agreements are hammered out, Russia has agreements ratified, metal is scheduled for shipment, metal is shipped.

That is the process. As of this date, NONE of it has occurred. Zero.

Under the best of conditions, these machinations would put metal on the planes in August or September.

Oh. And add to the process:

They must produce the metal.


(Thu May 28 1998 18:46 - ID#20137)
Date: Thu May 28 1998 17:40
Silverbaron ( chas @ next Au contract ) ID#288295:

August 98 - I think designated GC98M
Note that you gave the wrong contract ...

August contract is gcQ8 or gc98Q.

(Thu May 28 1998 18:46 - ID#43460)
RJ, question
Even given the glowing fundamentals, what is the chance that palladium will test its 1991 low? Or even the '82 low, below $100? Markets work in strange ways sometimes?

(Thu May 28 1998 18:48 - ID#43349)
Well said. There is always, must always be,
hope. Without hope is despair.

(Thu May 28 1998 18:49 - ID#57232)
RJ: I think gollum has it. The Russians that have their precious metals are not public figures. The assets of Russia -- precious metals,etc. are probably in the hands of the gangsters, who will sell when they feel like it, not when B Yeltsin wants them to. So a Russian economic collapse probably does little to loosen up precious metals supply.

Aragorn III
(Thu May 28 1998 18:49 - ID#212323)
Does anyone remember my Fuedal lord analogy posted about a month ago?
I'd like to pick the idea up where I left off to demonstrate the weakness that has crept into the system. A brief recap: the "Lords" used worthless hard wax beads as the form of monetary assistence to their vassals as needed, but trade among other lords required actual goods because they all knew the nature of these wax beads. etc, etc, ( do you remember now? )
The trick was not letting the vassals know the beads were worthless, and certainly NOT letting them know the worth of gold in interprovince trade.

In our current state of affairs, we at Kitco seem to put a lot of import on the awakening of the masses to the true nature of money. I don't think the common sheeple need ever "get it" to set the system right again. With the IMF, we now have a situation where one fuedal lord is using wax beads to provide assistence to other "weaker" lords in exchange for meaningful collateral. Come on! How long will this continue before the weak lords say "Enough is enough! It is one thing to victimize my own people, but to lose at my own game?!!" The number of governments suffering under the thumb of the IMF is growing, and all it takes is one to proclaim "IT'S ALL ONLY PAPER!" The government has nothing to loose in shattering its citizens confidence in the currency because 1 ) their confidence is already weakened, and 2 ) the government has already lost its position in the catbird seat with the ability to write blank checks to the world. They say to the IMF and the rest of the world, "Fine. You think our money is worthless, well, so is yours! We will only accept settlements for trade imbalances in terms of gold!"

Through this you have not only oil for gold ( as has been proposed ) , but also All Things for gold. Paper money will become worthless because nobody will work or sell products for payment in paper. This WILL HAPPEN. There are already too many lords being victimized by the same wax beads that they know full well, and their lowly vassals are rioting in the streets. Such an easy road to popularity exists for a struggling national them the nature of gold and money, then watch the dominoes fall. Any resource-rich country ( read "self sufficient" or "trade surplus" ) could end this nuisance of an economic experiment. Thirty years has been long enough!

(Thu May 28 1998 18:50 - ID#153102)
@Midas & Other Long Suffering Goldists @Hardcase
Midas et. al. Patience. Not Reason, Not Hope. Simple Patience.

Hardcase Readers such as yourself are much appreciated.

(Thu May 28 1998 18:51 - ID#26793)
You asked how many times in the past 18 years gold had been below $290. I searched my database and found 6 days in 1985, 13 days in 1997 and 9 days so far in 1998. A total of 28 occasions.

(Thu May 28 1998 18:56 - ID#217338)
As an active futures trader with current positions long wheat, LH, PB,HG, HO, HU, short HO puts, HG puts, HU puts, CT puts, all in the money with the exception of long HO. I have put more resources in PL in the past two years and made more profit than in any other future. I closed out my last PL position on 4-13 but went back in both futures and puts today, I think we will both be happy with our PL trades by year end.

(Thu May 28 1998 18:58 - ID#39857)
O-oh! WW111?WWRecession.

(Thu May 28 1998 18:58 - ID#288295)
A. Goose, mozel
A. Goose - thanx much for the correction on the gold futures designation.

mozel - Belize ( a wonderful place ) with bautiful pristine beaches with great scuba diving, english heritage of sorts ( used to be called British Honduras ) , short trip to the ancient ruins, cheap property, just out of the main carribian hurricane track.....take a look - my first choice of places to run to.

(Thu May 28 1998 18:59 - ID#20137)
Date: Thu May 28 1998 17:42
Donald ( Dealers can't figure out where the palladium is coming from. ) ID#26793:


August Donald, Russia may be shipping BUT this is a perfect example of what happens when these market trade so heavily in paper products. The swings are mammoth and often based on RUMOR , speculation and manipulation. Look how many times they walk that Swiss referendum story out to hit gold sales

lower in early trade here, pulling down platinum with it,
trade sources said.
Some players who were long on palladium are locking in
their profits on thoughts that Russian metal is "right
around the corner," said one trader.
There were reports Wednesday that some palladium may
have been shipped in the form of sponge, a powdery
substance, although some contacts said they had not seen
conclusive confirmation.
At any rate, said one contact, there are thoughts in
the market that more metal is on the way.
Said a floor source: "We've got some light selling and
no volume. That's basically it."
Said another trader: "Platinum is down in sympathy
( with palladium ) . It hasn't been looking too well lately,
and people seem to be getting out of positions they had."

Gusto Oro
(Thu May 28 1998 19:02 - ID#377235)
2+2=3 to 3.5
Excellent, Gollum, you are exactly right. --AG

(Thu May 28 1998 19:03 - ID#43349)
@Aragorn III
Well put. The problem we have today, of course,
is that each feudal lord makes his own distinctively
colored wax bead and for the last couple of
dozen years the green backed wax beads have been
considered to be, and indeed have been, of
eduring and growing value compared to the other
varied hues.

Each new crises has led to renewed acquisition
and hoarding of the green ones.

No one has yet caught on that the green lord can
make as many or few of them as he desires or
requires to maintain his power and control.

Occasionaly a neoghboring feifdom gets in trouble
because a shortage of their color of wax develops
due to so many having been traded for green.

Ever so helpful, the green lord is quick to loan
them whatever they need at not too exorbitant
a rate....

Aragorn III
(Thu May 28 1998 19:04 - ID#212323)
Yep, its four alright. And since we find ourselves in total agreement on all important things, what is left to talk about?
Shades of the Andy Griffith Show...sittin' on the porch--
"MMMMMmmmmHmmmmm...this shore is good beer!"
"Yep. I don't remember the last time I had beer this good."
"Yep. It shooore is a gooooooood beer!"

(Thu May 28 1998 19:04 - ID#227168)
Think Logical --Investing is fun
Russians Love Vodka Yes Vodka makes Potatoes disappear Get it ---Platinum for potatoes even the rusky mob likes French fries Investing is so simple ---Buy potato peelings ---Away for some deep thinking.

(Thu May 28 1998 19:11 - ID#153102)
I do not share your homogeonized view of the world. And I don't think you read the Argentine press release. But, I don't know your motive and don't need to. Hie thee to Belize if you please.

(Thu May 28 1998 19:11 - ID#410215)
..... Gotta' go write the Review .....



gagnrad -

I think it is a certainty that palladium will fall back below $100 in the next two years.

I have written much of industry substitution of palladium and increased efforts to end reliance on sporadic supplies from Russia. This will be a rather slow process as the assembly lines need the metal today. New demand in some more "esoteric" tecnology will insure that palladium is always valuable, but the auto industry is moving back to platinum.

JD -

Ya know.?

You did say platinum would fall short term

I did not believe anybody had the right combination of muscle and balls

To push a market in unprecedented shortage down, down, and ( OK! ) , down.

Hats off


(Thu May 28 1998 19:16 - ID#410215)
..... Plaintalker .....

Do you agree with my assessment re short term platinum?

I like it here


(Thu May 28 1998 19:16 - ID#335190)
Please printout and distribute.



The Church has finally given permission to awaken people with the messages of Fatima, as they were given by Virgin Mary when she appeared to three children on October 13, 1917.

Father Agustino of Rome, who is in Fatima, Portugal, says that Pope Paul VI gave him permission to see sister Lucia. His own words after talking to her were the following: "She saw me with much sadness" and said; "Father, our Lady is not happy because nobody was interested in her prophecy given to us in 1917.

FWIW.........Take Care

Aragorn III
(Thu May 28 1998 19:17 - ID#212323)
Gollum (we won't mention the significance of YOU and I having this exchange...wink, wink)
The wax beads had to be accepted in the past when in full view of the vassals, otherwise they would have gotten wise to the scam that was being put upon them by thier own lords. For a lord to continue to accept these other colored wax beads was to ensure that the game of LOCAL CONTROL and DOMINANCE continued. But what is the use of dominating your small patch of land and its people when you YOURSELF ( and your province ) find that you are similarly being dominated through the very SAME scheme? You stand up and say "I don't have to take this!" and you level the playing field through rejection of ALL foreign wax beads and insist on gold for balance of trade.
When one is dominated, one seeks first to simply level the playing field. Gold does this. Bad news, might have to wake up one day and go back to WORK.

(Thu May 28 1998 19:19 - ID#347457)
Simplification does not work, be it PM markets or Y2K
Folks, I read over and over on this forum, analysis, predictions, on PM markets, markets in general, Y2K, etc.. Most of them contain valid points, however, most of them are a simplification of overly complex systems. I see many posts saying "if x does this, market will react this way  sometimes we dare to go into if x does this and y does this markets will react this way

Well, markets are much more complex "animals" and linear thinking does not work! Yes, I used to be economist, turned to be a computer scientist. None of the economic models are accurate, and most of the prediction will fall short. Yes, there are people with extensive experience in a specific area who based on many years of experiences may predict market behaviors better than somebody else, still their prediction face unpredictable results and surprises.

As far as Y2K goes, the same rule applies. Predicting the worse or predicting "easy riding". The truth is somewhere in between. I don't go with any "camps". It won't be the end of the world, however, you can bet on it, it will be much worse that some oversimplified explanation predicts.

WetGold, I promised you to ask Yurdon some questions when I see him at the Orlando conference. Sorry to say, I missed him. He rescheduled his participation and I had to leave before he showed up. I see a bit different Y2K picture that you do. I work continuously with 5-10 organizations at the time. Things are much better than a few months ago, however, WAY behind where they should be considering its mid of 1998. Without naming specific entities, some of them are still trying to figure out what systems they run, have no plans ( or plans which are totally unrealistic ) to address the problem, and no money to throw at the problem.

BTW, your view of telecom is also a bit oversimplified. I deal with some highly distributed organization where phones communication is essential. Well, that phone call is routed from AT&T through a local "ma and pa" operation taking care of the local exchange having no idea what equipment they have and don't even try to explain to them what Y2K is.

No it won't be the end of "civilization", however, some adjustments will have to be made to our definition "this is the way things work". It will affect markets, however, I don't dare to say how much ( you see I used to be economist so I chicken out ;- )

(Thu May 28 1998 19:27 - ID#217338)
I believe PL will likely range 355-375 until Russia resumes shipment and will likely dip to 345-50 for a very short time rebounding to 420 by late Jan 99. I bough oct today @ 367 and sold 360 puts @ 19 just to be sure that I have a position in the event that my timetable is wrong.

(Thu May 28 1998 19:29 - ID#217338)
Forgot to mention that the puts were Jan.

(Thu May 28 1998 19:30 - ID#153102)
I will further examine Belize.
Even though it rhymes with Disease.
Walk, don't run.

(Thu May 28 1998 19:31 - ID#20137)
Date: Thu May 28 1998 18:58


Happy to help. What do you think about this last drawdown in comex eligible gold stocks???

(Thu May 28 1998 19:31 - ID#242325)
Goldfinger 1998
Some of you may remember the 1965 movie "Goldfinger", in which the title character tried to multiply the value of his gold holdings by setting off an atom bomb in Fort Knox. Well if such a scenario actually came to passs today, the financial establishment probably would say it was really bearish for gold. Because it would encourage the world's central banks to further demonetize the metal.

Just a thought on how negative gold sentiment has become.Gold and gold stock valuations are just as extreme on the downside as stocks are on the upside. But when sentiment changes...

(Thu May 28 1998 19:32 - ID#20137)
Date: Thu May 28 1998 19:16
6pak ( FWIW ) ID#335190:
Copyright  1998 6pak/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Please printout and distribute.


6pak, thanks for sharing this.


(Thu May 28 1998 19:32 - ID#187218)
My old friend -- we've had this discussion many times in the past and I think we agree one at least 1 thing:

Large telcos will have the problem resolved BUT the 'ma' and 'pa' may have a problem. However, the %saturation of market share these concerns have are minor ( single digits ) compared to the overall scheme of things. As I've stated before, I sit ( and have sat ) on numerous telco committees and the issues are being resolved and mostly have been in the past 2 years. I just arrived back from a conference in Florida several weeks back and I am quite confident in the infrastucture of the 'big guys'.

I will grant you that 'ma-n-pa' may need some help now and then to move forward.

Nice hearing from you!

Strad Master
(Thu May 28 1998 19:33 - ID#250297)
Y2K and Reason
MIRO: As one of the resident Y2K experts, could you possibly address ( in your considered opinion ) the problem of how best to PERSONALLY prepare for Y2K? The extreme positions of the camps you speak of ( "Nothing significant wlll happen" and "Westren Civilization as we know it will end at midnight 1/1/2000" ) make carefully considered preparation difficult, if not impossible. Gary North has moved oot to the boonies and stockpiled food and guns. I live in LA and have no intention of resorting to such extreme measures. Is there a reasonable balance? I ( and others here, I'm sure ) would appreciate your insights. Thanks.

Aragorn III
(Thu May 28 1998 19:33 - ID#212323)
If you can answer this question correctly, you'll know why the system is dysfunctional and corrupt
Who are the "Modern Day Miners"?
Chime in with your answers...I must attend to other matters and will provide the follow-up commentary tomorrow. You don't want to miss this! Think hard on this...

(Thu May 28 1998 19:33 - ID#348129)
@For only those still interested in Gold equities
Check out Queenstake ( QTR - .45C ) . They just inked a deal with Barrick where ABX can spend $5M US to drill some of QTR's Peru properties for a 51% cut. Many other plays in the works also and cash in the bank!
Of course QTR is still sitting at it's lows weathering out this storm with a Golden lining, Yes?

(Thu May 28 1998 19:34 - ID#45173)
Donald: More deflation news from Japan
"The real bottom in terms of production and the peak of the inventory level will not be reached until the first half of 1999," said Nobuya Nemoto, a senior economist at Nomura Research Institute.


(Thu May 28 1998 19:37 - ID#227168)
Do the right ting -Rap
6 Pack Now is the time Send that Gold to your favorite church Watch it! Farfel is behind you ---Away to watch Golden Scepters at the Vatican

(Thu May 28 1998 19:38 - ID#288369)
@Are PGM's integral in the manufacture of nuclear bombs?
If so, I hope they are in extreme short supply......DUCK!

Crystal Ball
(Thu May 28 1998 19:54 - ID#287367)
@ RJ
Did you say Palladium will be under ONE hundred dollars per ounce within the next two years? I'd be surprised to see it under $200 !

Strad Master
(Thu May 28 1998 19:55 - ID#250297)
Wowie! Zowie!
TO ALL WHO ARE INTERESTED IN COSMOLOGY: Latest news flash from the Hubble Telescope! Fascinating!

Good ol' boy
(Thu May 28 1998 19:55 - ID#26362)
The more times you run over a dead sheep, the flatter it gets.
This observation seems to have much in common with the present gold market. It seems to just be getting flatter.

(Thu May 28 1998 19:58 - ID#210235)
@Pakistan state of emergency - bank holiday declared and
foreign currency traders licenses are suspended, too.

Well, what do you make of all this? India and Pakistan have had two wars already since WWII ended. Is a third on the horizon? What are the implications?

(Thu May 28 1998 19:58 - ID#288369)
@GoB.........dead ewe? et tu?
Flattened? As in our pocketbooks?

Good ol' boy
(Thu May 28 1998 20:00 - ID#26362)
Flat as in a dead cat bounce. Boring, boring, boring.

(Thu May 28 1998 20:00 - ID#210235)
@Just curious, but does anyone keep charts
on the price of gold in other currencies?

(Thu May 28 1998 20:02 - ID#72316)
You gold bugs just don't get it

(Thu May 28 1998 20:04 - ID#288369)
Incredible picture. Birth of a planet....unbelieveable.

(Thu May 28 1998 20:07 - ID#210114)
More ado about nothing

Zurich--May 28--The Swiss lower house has to approve the measure passed in the upper house Wednesday to change the Swiss constitution with respect to the gold reserves the country is required to hold. Pending lower house approval, a referendum will have to be held before any gold can be sold. By Jeannette Zollinger, Bridge News, Story .15039

Crystal Ball
(Thu May 28 1998 20:08 - ID#287367)
@ Promey
Try gold pages at

Strad Master
(Thu May 28 1998 20:11 - ID#250297)
Followup to my previous post
ALL: Be sure to go click on the "Press Release" link after you see the photo. Yeah, Studio. Unbelievable is the word for it.

Gianni Dioro__A
(Thu May 28 1998 20:11 - ID#384350)
mozel, squirrel, wilE: NWO
Just got back from talking to my friend who used to be a UN foot soldier.

He says that there are 130 detention camps in the US; might as well call them Gulags. Road signs exist on certain roads which are symbols or some sort of code. On the roads where these signs exist have been spotted East European Armoured Trucks that are impervious to nuclear-biological weapons.

My friend says that the signs are so that if these foreigners get lost they won't have to ask directions when they are rounding up the non-believers.

God I'm glad I don't live in Amerika.

(Thu May 28 1998 20:14 - ID#227168)
Another false picture from the hubble drubble -It's a pottage peel
Many have spoken Oil for Gold How about some music for drugs ---The new drugamatic c.d. gives listeners a virtual high as they listen to their favorite artists like death cult death to conformity and death killers from outer space Many of these titles will be available on DVD surround sound shortly Imagine dying in Dolby 3 pro-logic ---Away to short pasteurized pottage peels.

(Thu May 28 1998 20:15 - ID#30116)
You be the judge...
Gold on the chart...

(Thu May 28 1998 20:17 - ID#344286)
Miro, Thanks in advance.

Care to elaborate of the "Orlando Confrence"

I would be interested in attending, if y2k.

Gianni Dioro__A
(Thu May 28 1998 20:18 - ID#384350)
Swiss Gold Link
Can someone please tell me the official Link there is to the Swiss Franc with Gold.

Considering that the Swissy has been devalued considerably in the last 30 years, I assume it must be linked to something like actual notes in circulation; all the electronic fractional reserved created money don't mean a thing.

Now if that is the case, and with Y2K around the corner, what would happen if the Swiss people start making a run on their banks, would the Swiss Central Bank run into problems in that there are too many SFR's in existence and not enough gold to back it? Would people end up in prison, or would heads roll.

Or would they have some bogus referendum, of which the result would be rigged in advance?

(Thu May 28 1998 20:18 - ID#288295)
A.Goose @ COMEX drawdowns
See the my comments and those of jims and Gollum at 06:20, 07:19, 07:32, 07:43 ( among others ) ...We'll see.

Strad Master
(Thu May 28 1998 20:18 - ID#250297)
GIANNI DIORO: What are you talking about? 130 Gulags in the US? Rounding up the Unbelievers? This is a new one on me. Please explain.

(Thu May 28 1998 20:20 - ID#30116)
Look again...Yes?
Let's compare the CRB to the XAU. Hint, look to the past... ( ratio falling is good, the inverse is bad )

(Thu May 28 1998 20:21 - ID#245319)

In 4 months "Old Chap", you will definitely "get it".

(Thu May 28 1998 20:23 - ID#30116)
US Dollar index

Gianni Dioro__A
(Thu May 28 1998 20:25 - ID#384350)
Strad, Gulags
See mozel's posts on a possible FEMA Y2K Klinton usurpation of power from the past few days.

Squirrel posted something similar this morning, and WilE posted a link which exposed the foreign troops training on US soil. Thanks for the Link WilE, I'll try to give it a good read over, soon.

Strad, you can click on "Edit", then "find on this page" for Internet Explorer, or simply "Control+F" to search for key words, like WilE, mozel, etc.

(Thu May 28 1998 20:25 - ID#30116)
Now the long bond...

(Thu May 28 1998 20:29 - ID#401349)
Gianni Dioro, is your UN foot soldier friend the one who was discharged for having periodic drug induced hallucinations. Jeez, get thee to a cuckoo's nest. Everybody knows there are 131 not 130!

(Thu May 28 1998 20:29 - ID#335190)
Give Peace A Chance @ Tibetans say NO MORE ( They Could use India's Bomb EH!)
Tibetan emigres losing patience with non-violence

DHARMSALA, India ( AP ) -- Kunchok Tender spent 20 years in the Tibetan underground, distributing anti-China pamphlets and pasting posters on walls. Like most Tibetans, he was devoted to the Dalai Lama's campaign for greater freedom for Tibet purely by peaceful means.

No more.

"The situation in Tibet is getting worse day by day, hour by hour. We cannot wait another 40 years," said Tseten Norbu, president of the Tibetan Youth Congress.

Recalling India's independence struggle led by Mohandas Gandhi, Norbu said: "We need a leader."

The Dalai Lama confesses he is uncertain how to deal with the growing radicalism in his movement. Uncompromising on non-violence, he refuses to endorse proposals that could endanger lives.

Under Rinpoche's plan, Tibetans would quit jobs in the Chinese-dominated administration and boycott Chinese-run stores and restaurants. Students would refuse to study in the Chinese language and Tibetans would not do business with Chinese partners.

(Thu May 28 1998 20:30 - ID#30116)
And finally...
An expectation indicator; The spread between the long bond and short term money. A low spread would be taken as a sign of low inflation expectations.

Strad Master
(Thu May 28 1998 20:32 - ID#250297)
More to worry about?

(Thu May 28 1998 20:37 - ID#29082)
Old Gold
Gert Frobe was a great gold loving villain. I wonder how many people would even get the point today?

(Thu May 28 1998 20:39 - ID#269320)
Gianni Dioro
you better give your head a good shake.....and make some sense,please...

(Thu May 28 1998 20:40 - ID#30116)
So, if want gold to fly, you will need a crisis in the dollar. Any other scenarios seem to result in a flight to the dollar, causing it to get stronger relative to other currencies. This will eventually result in a dollar crisis along with a recession, first in the export industries and then spreading to other sectors of the economy. Not a pretty picture.

(Thu May 28 1998 20:42 - ID#238422)
My friend, I respect you very much.

I posted several times that Russians do not need
a signed paper of any sort to sell the metal. I honestly
wanted to help some people to understand specifics of
Russian business. Mafia, or not mafia, government or Boris
Yeltsin itself - makes no difference at all - THEY DO NOT
NEED PAPERS in Russia, period. I also indicated
that when workers are not paid for a few months - expect it...

Why there is still a surprise at Kitco? Of course Russians
are selling...both "mafia" and government, which is pretty
much the same people.

(Thu May 28 1998 20:43 - ID#288369)
Thank you for the charts...........And, particularly, your summary conclusion ( which greatly aids non-TA's such as myself ) ....

(Thu May 28 1998 20:47 - ID#245364)

Queenstake had property close to the former Arequipa strike in Peru, as you probably know. It also has claims with similar geological similarities to that of Arequipa's. As we all now know, Barrick took out Arequipa at $30 and are now projecting a 7 million oz. plus surface ore body at $50/oz.
You may or may not know of the pending sequel to this saga, Chesbar Resources ( CBI - MTL ) .In one to two weeks, Chesbar will release assay results on 35 holes, which will be most enlightening. Barrick is lurking behind the scenes and is, and will be, a continuing invester. This has all the potential of being a 20 to 30 million oz. ore body as drilling continues over the next year to two years. Barrick will move in before December to take it over. The stock is, as they say, a "screaming buy" at $1.30 Cdn. Remember this and weep if you don't do due diligence. By the way, the company is well financed, has great management, and is definitely not an "arm waver".

(Thu May 28 1998 20:47 - ID#72316)
@ Winston
I didn't say it , I just posted it. What is happening in 4 months?

(Thu May 28 1998 20:49 - ID#238422)
All/Russian PL and PA and everything else...
You guys are amazing me...Nobody here except Junior
and to some extent John Disney seems to understand that
Russia is the richest country of the world...They got much
more PA and PL that so called "reliable sources" are telling
you....It is just not OFFICIAL....!

(Thu May 28 1998 20:53 - ID#72316)
You be the judge @ panda
It looks like it's broken a head and shoulders and a trend line. If it were a stock I was trading , that's how I would read it.

(Thu May 28 1998 21:00 - ID#201238)
comex stocks
A. Goose - there is alot of pushing and shoving going on here

warehouse stocks: -- GOLD ( Quoted in Troy Ounce )
Depository Prev. Received Net. Adjust- Total
Total Withdrawn Chg. ment Today
210,790 0 0 0 0 210,790
26,486 99,895 0 99,895 0 126,381 Total
237,276 99,895 0 99,895 1 337,171
166,425 26,389 0 26,389 0 192,814
15,399 0 0 0 0 15,399 Total
181,824 26,389 0 26,389 0 208,213
424,254 0 0 0 0 424,254
107,683 0 0 0 0 107,683 Total
531,937 0 0 0 0 531,937
801,469 26,389 0 26,389 0 827,858
149,568 99,895 0 99,895 0 249,463
951,037 126,284 0 126,284 1 1,077,321

(Thu May 28 1998 21:05 - ID#206358)
Riots hit Sumatran town in Indonesia May 28, 1998 Web posted at:
3:58 a.m. EDT ( 0758 GMT ) JAKARTA, Indonesia ( AP ) -- Police were
a town on Sumatra Island in force Thursday after mobs burned cars and
in the first riot since Suharto quit as president last week. Witnesses said a
demonstration against government corruption turned violent Wednesday
300 protesters marched to the mayor's office in Tanjungbalai, 1,200
( 800 miles ) northwest of Jakarta. Local newspaper reporters said mobs
12 shops and damaged eight automobiles. Several stores, owned by the
ethnic Chinese minority, were looted. Two automatic teller machines were
damaged. At least 20 people were arrested, they said. Witnesses said the
violence broke out after a rumor swept the crowd that a Chinese man had
killed a pedestrian in an auto accident. The Chinese minority have regularly
been targeted by rioters in recent months as hard times from Indonesia's
economic crisis in 30 years start to bite. Chinese business people dominate
Indonesian commerce and industry and have been made scapegoats for a
plummeting currency, soaring prices and rising unemployment.

This morning,the regions currencies hit hard by the impact of PAKISTAN NUCLEAR TEST AND THE RIOT!
Once the YEN falling,the others followed!!

(Thu May 28 1998 21:05 - ID#410215)
..... I defer to you in all things Russian .....

Oris -

We agree entirely. Last year, I went into detail on the likelihood of the various fiefdoms having stolen about all there is to steal, PGMs among them. All the collected together adds up to a pile, not a supply, and not readily available. I think official reserves are all gone, excepting low strategic reserves. I understand well the nature of the Bear, it is budding capitalism yes?

The metal came from Tiger ( rumor )

This is a market that needs 7 and a half million ounces a year in constant supply, and demand is rising. I trade no palladium. But Platinum is way low. It will move way high.


(Thu May 28 1998 21:05 - ID#20748)
panda : Peter grandich
argues that it is runaway stock market which has kept the POG down. He feels though that right now we are in a "transition period".

For those willing to plod through, here is what he had to say at the NY gold conference.

NY Gold Show Speech

I am providing to those of you who could not
attend my speech today at the New York Gold
Show, a copy of my presentation. It should give
you an idea of my latest observations on the gold
market and some individual companies.


During the next 20 minutes, I will share with you
my personal observations and ideas. Please keep
in mind my comments are not to be construed as
investment advice. Many of the companies I will
speak about are either current or former
consultant clients of mine and while I pride myself
on being candid, no matter what the
circumstances may be, you must recognize a
potential bias does exist.

It is my opinion that the overriding reason gold
has performed poorly is due to the undisputable
fact that the overall equity market has done so
well. It is not a coincidence that the stock market
stumbled and fumbled from the mid-1970s
through the early '80s while gold enjoyed its one
mega-bull market since gold was allowed to
freely trade in the mid-'70s. This clear
non-coincidence reversed itself simultaneously as
equities began a historic astronomic rise, which is
now in its 16th year, while gold lost most of its

This fact has been underscored for several years
now, whereupon I have asked an audience such
as this one, the following question:

How many of you have actually purchased
physical bullion - not stocks or rare coins, but
actual gold coins or bars? The response is usually
5% - 10% of the audience. When I asked how
many have purchased individual non-gold related
stocks or mutual funds, virtually all the hands go

This poll has always been a good indicator of the
true lack of investment demand worldwide and
why excuses like Central Bank sales have
received far more credit than they are deserving.

This is not to say Central Bank sales aren't a
factor, but those who use it as their top negative
factor, either have forgotten or don't even know,
that the level of sales now being blamed for golds
poor performance has been matched or exceeded
during gold's previous bull market. This
undisputable fact is what, in my mind, makes me
underscore the performance of the stock market
as gold's number one enemy. Like oil and vinegar,
a rising stock market just can't mix with a rising
gold price.

I have personally refrained from standing in front
of this runaway train known as the DJIA for
several years now.

And while the list of bearish indicators increases, I
can't help but feel the "Don't Worry, Be Happy"
crowd on Wall Street will make 10,000 on the
Dow a self-fulfilling prophecy.

I could literally spend hours just noting the
numerous technical and fundamental problems,
however, a few standouts in my opinion are:

Margin Debt - They say a bull market can't end
until there is a speculative frenzy. They also say
when the average Joe thinks he can't lose, he will
borrow money to play the game. Well, margin
debt is now twice as high as it has ever been since
borrowing became available.

Inflation - If only I had a dollar for each time I
heard the stock market is not overvalued due to
this period of low interest rates and inflation. The
fact of the matter is there have been numerous
periods of time when interest rates and inflation
were this low or lower, yet the stock market
didn't rise.

They tell us inflation is dead. Well, before you
send flowers, take a look at the alarming rise in
the nation's money supply.

For the first time since the 1980s, The Shadow
Open Market Committee expressed serious
concern over it. They recently said "The seeds of
high inflation have been and are being sown. It is
irresponsible to ignore the increased money
growth in the last six months."

Economy - At the end of the day, stock
ownership comes down to being part owner of a
business. And in any business, the most important
factor is the bottom line. Make no mistake about
it, despite a worldwind of creative accounting,
write-offs, and other magical events, corporate
America is witnessing an economic backdrop
change. Through the '90s American households
struggled to get ahead while corporate profits
rose. Now, profit margins are being squeezed by
tight labor markets. By year's-end the markets PE
average could be 3 to 5 times larger than the
corporate profit growth rate. Can you spell tulips?

So whether or not 10,000 on the Dow is
achieved I feel quite comfortable that we are
entering a transition period that will be looked
back on as the turning point for stocks losing their
elite status and precious metals losing their dog

Let me also point out that a collapse in stocks will
not necessarily be good for gold as it would not
give enough time for a true investment shift to take
place. In terms of gold, the market is clearly going
through a bottoming phase but needs, desperately
I might add, to get above $325. If and when this
occurs, strong technical-buy signals should be
triggered which will not only bring in hot money
flow but will likely give positive media coverage
which can trigger investment interest.

If all this occurs, as politically correct as selling
gold forward or lending was, it will become
unpopular. Bottom line, the cup will go from
half-empty to half-full.

(Thu May 28 1998 21:06 - ID#43349)
You got it, Panda. The strong dollar and high
real US interest rates are continuing to drain
foreign currency markets as well as depressing
commodity prices. This is creating much chaos
in that local economies are unable to keep
enough liquidity at home to effectively stimulate
their economies. Trade goods are being exported
at fire sale prices and imports are dropping to
neglidgeable levels because the dollar price is
too dear.

The Fed does nothing, because the Fed sees this as
good. Yhe dollar is strong and inflation is in check.

The only way out is to allow inflation and depress
the dollar.

Because of massive trade deficits and lack of foreign
sales, manufacturing earnigs are dropping and the
economy is starting to slow. If it slows hard and
fast enough, the Fed may yet see the error of it's
ways and begin to reduce rates to perk things back up.
I greatly fear, however that this will not happen in
time. And of course the current Fed bias is in completely
the wrong direction since they are focused too strongly
on keeping infaltion down and not seeing the
forest because of all the trees....

Gianni Dioro__A
(Thu May 28 1998 21:06 - ID#384350)
Strad, Govt Grab
I am of the opinion that considering the following:

The US is a large shopping mall riding on the illusion of paper. People have been taken off the land and are now residing in cities. These people are totally dependent on the system.

The World Govt is looking for total control of the populace. I fear that the USG may try to take away the defenses ( guns ) from its people, just like Hitler or Stalin.

To pass a law outlawing guns, and then trying to take them away from the Montana or Michigan militia, or even honest Texans, may prove dificult. A resistance is guaranteed.

Now, American troops may be reluctant to fire upon their own people, so perhaps former non-english speaking Soviet Bloc nationals may carry out the dirty deed.

WileE's 10:43 link shows that foreign troops are training on US soil. My friend who served in the United Nations as a foot soldier also told me about the foreign troops in the US, and also of 130 empty detention camps waiting to be filled in case of a national emergency. He also spoke of mysterious road signs.

(Thu May 28 1998 21:09 - ID#29082)
Charts, schmartz, I prefer a good rumor or two....
This one from Bill Murphy at Veneroso & Associates.....

(Thu May 28 1998 21:10 - ID#318183)
Gianni Dioro__A
Those aren't detention camps those are 7-11's and yes the signs are everywhere - and there must be more than 131 of them - cause there are 100 of them in Salt Lake City alone - my friend in the UN says that there is a secret UN 3rd world plan to bancrupt the US by having 100's of billions of unpaid parking tickets and then having the government spend postage trying to collect them - 1GB x $.32

(Thu May 28 1998 21:11 - ID#20748)
The Fed is well aware that Clinton's fortunes are tied directly to the stock market. Given that, what options does he have?

(Thu May 28 1998 21:14 - ID#20748)
Curious but can't open the url. Please repost.

(Thu May 28 1998 21:14 - ID#288295)
Gianni Dioro (OFF-TOPIC)
I hate to feed this U.N. monster, but sorry - couldn't resist. Go Gold!

Gianni Dioro__A
(Thu May 28 1998 21:15 - ID#384350)
Possible National Emergency
Hipshot- 131? Well, that's inflation for you.

Maybe the scenario won't play out, but the writing's on the wall.

(Thu May 28 1998 21:18 - ID#72316)
Gianni @ 21.06
It does not surprise me that foreign troops are training on US soil anymore then US military advising paramilitary troops on foreign soil...
I doubt that this is a plot against the US citizens but more against the people of the countries that they are from...

(Thu May 28 1998 21:21 - ID#318183)
Those pics look like some of Rommels old stuff - lol -

(Thu May 28 1998 21:22 - ID#43349)
I think Peter Grandich is largely correct,
however I think if the dollar hadn't been kept
strong and inflation suppressed, there wouldn't
have been the long equity bull market lo these
many years.

If the market were to suffer a setback those
who were nervous would not fly to gold so long
as the dollar keeps it's strength, but merely
go to cash.

In the past when gold has done well has always
been when cash was seen as unsafe, either because
of war or upheaval in the banking system.

After all, if you are one who believes in cash,
why put your money in non-interest bearing gold
when there are other avenues just as safe and
perhaps drawing a little interest as well.

Speculators pushing the prices around do not give
much of a secure feeling either.

(Thu May 28 1998 21:22 - ID#72316)
Silver Barron, OT
Why, The UN is just another puppet of the US...

(Thu May 28 1998 21:22 - ID#210235)
@Someone posted the question this morning
What was the REAL interest rate the US long bond paid out when gold was soaring back in the late 70's. My recollection is that the rate paid was very close to the actual and accelerating rate of inflation. Long bond holders in the second half of the 1970's soon found their money was shrinking in buying power, even given the 17% or more rates they were paying per annum.

Today, we are seeing the inverse of that. As PPI has entered a decidedly flat level - even negative, we see an acceleration of purchasing power from long bonds. And gold kissing it's old lows.

What could change this? While there are several warm spots, Kosovo and Kashmir come to mind, there are none that seem in imminent danger of exploding. It is likely in the near term that further trade sanctions will, like the Smoot/Hawley act of old, further depress world trade, tipping the world more quickly into the next recession.

So where is the PM market now? Sitting on the edge of boredom "watching the paint dry" and enjoying another season of peace and opportunity to quietly increase our position of the precious metals at bargain basement prices. It might be over tomorrow.

(Thu May 28 1998 21:23 - ID#30116)
Gollum -- The big three ( Ford, GM, Chrysler ) are already crowing about the 'high' dollar hurting them.

arby -- Yes.

(Thu May 28 1998 21:25 - ID#30116)
NJ -- Interesting comments from Grandich. It kinda feels like a bear market rally in gold. I would like to think otherwise, but..

(Thu May 28 1998 21:25 - ID#288295)
Gianni Dioro (OFF-TOPIC)
Here they are! Go Gold!

(Thu May 28 1998 21:26 - ID#210235)
Welcome! Have you been lurking long? It was a fair wind that blew you in our direction.

(Thu May 28 1998 21:27 - ID#20748)
Another viewpoint, which I agree with, comes from Martin Armstrong, of PEI.
He maintains a bull market in gold is triggered only when there is political turmoil and people lose faith in the government in power.

That too may be near.

(Thu May 28 1998 21:27 - ID#344239)

(Thu May 28 1998 21:28 - ID#57232)
Fatima prophesies -- had to go back to work.
6pak: Interesting post. I know something highly significant happened at Fatima, Portugal in 1917. The prophesies were suppressed by the Pope ( Pius XII, apparently ) . Some of the prophesies have apparently come true. Unfortunately I have trouble understanding the Third prophesy from the Web site that you posted -- part of the problem is that the Moslem, Hindu, and Buddist religions were not mentioned -- it seems too Catholic oriented. I don't think that any one religion should have a monopoly on the attention of the Supreme Being, although the messsage might have been distorted by human interpretation. I will try to find the site I have, and compare notes -- when I get home. I think my site sounds more plausible, but it does not have the last prophesy. The name of a specific priest was mentioned, too, as well as Sister Lucia.

(Thu May 28 1998 21:30 - ID#29082)
If this attempt fails, go to the Silicon Investor site Search on "Dutch"

While your over there, try the Gold Price Monitor board.

This is the link from a slightly different angle:

(Thu May 28 1998 21:31 - ID#43349)
The Fed has few politicaly feasible options
available, certainly none the man in office
woukd like. However doing nothing is just as
bad. In 1929 the Fed did nothing and it didn't
turn out to endear the administration to the
public. Decisive action is needed and I don't
think it's gonna happen. We need leadership and
leadership willing to stick it's neck out and
lose it;s head if need be. See any real leaders

(Thu May 28 1998 21:31 - ID#210235)
@Crystal Ball
Thanks for the URL.

(Thu May 28 1998 21:32 - ID#342376)
@ Speed and all....
I read the link you posted, thanks. I want to believe all the fundamentals that Veneroso says but this part of it I find hard to swallow,
"Our good friends at the golden-eagle web site reported an astonishing number of hits on their site from a highly visible European Central Bank. The number is the most striking one I have ever heard of from an institution of this type" No offense to golden-eagle, I enjoy reading the site, but I don't think a highly visible European Central Bank needs to catch the latest scoop from that site. Do you think they'll be buying MINE ( Golden Eagle ) ? I'm glad I didn't sell my shares yet. Whew!!!

(Thu May 28 1998 21:33 - ID#27341)
Gollum, whats your bet, world hyperinflation, or world d deflation.
like i said, i like the way you think.

(Thu May 28 1998 21:34 - ID#30116)
STUDIO.R -- The oil drillers and service stocks are almost in as sad a shape as the yellow yellow. How does the expression go? "We are not alone..."

If you want to see a nasty break, look at ADI . A chipmaker that missed its' earnings by a smidgen, and had the nerve to say that the next quarter or two could be a little slow... You know, the Asian thingee..

Strad Master
(Thu May 28 1998 21:34 - ID#250297)
Won't fly
GIANNI DIORO: I think it would take a WHOLE LOT of foreign troops ( many batallions worth ) to subdue a US populace unwilling to give up their guns. 130 detention camps wouldn't be enough and there would be a lot of dead Eastern Europeans getting us in there. During WW2 the Germans had a REALLY hard time putting down the rebellion in the Warsaw Ghetto because there were about 6 rifles and a few pistols to contend with. The idea that Eastern European troops would placidly lay down their lives just to fill up US detention camps with law abiding US citizens ( who cling to the quaint but Constitutionally mandated right to bear arms ) sounds pretty preposterous to me.

Gianni Dioro__A
(Thu May 28 1998 21:35 - ID#384350)
Swiss Gold Link Again
Damn! I wanted to get a response out of my 20:18, to see what you all thought of the possiblity of a bank run in Switzerland in face of Y2K, that might substitute digital fractional reserve SFR's for paper Swiss Franc Notes, and would this affect the gold backing. Would the bank be exposed for not living up to its constitutional backing? Are only notes backed by gold? Is a rigged Referendum the solution?

Any thoughts?

(Thu May 28 1998 21:35 - ID#45173)
arby: re market cap for Coca Cola is more than all gold mines
Interesting stat. How about this one: between 1929 amd 1934, RCA, the technology monopoly of its day, the Microsoft of its time, the sterling example of the "new paradigm," lost 97% of its market value. You believe in the "new paradigm" of our time. Good for you. Buy some Coca Cola stock. But know that history is cycles, all the same, yet each different. Good luck.

(Thu May 28 1998 21:36 - ID#237264)
Gianni Di'Oro

The Swiss Franc was about 4 SF to $ 1 US at the end of WW2 and in the interim it even came close to parity.

It has had its ups and downs during that period, but generally it has performed well against all currencies.

Since gold was declared a commodity most all currencies play this interest and competetive devaluation game and no one can really determine any paper currencies value.

Based on gold backing, the Swiss Government held gold backs well over 100% of their circulating paper and and at some low official government stated price -to boot. I'm sure that the Swiss people want it that way.

I'm sure that the Swiss folk consider the strong gold backing as part of their financial well being and am sure that whatever unemployment rate is quoted for Switzerland, that their indivigual resources will carry them a long way.

(Thu May 28 1998 21:39 - ID#29082)
Just let that logic stuff slide for a bit and dream!

(Thu May 28 1998 21:43 - ID#284255)
Dow support?
Interesting to view the 1929 crash on this chart.
The initial crash was a blip like the 1987 crash
But the ensuing bear brought the Dow back below the initial take off point.

If we are to see the same this time
That would put the Dow back to the 1000pt level around 2003.

A scary thought with Y2k thrown in for good measure.

(Thu May 28 1998 21:44 - ID#210235)
Major papers heralding Asian contagion. Big problems seen in California.
quick excerpt from long article in LA times. Finally the reality of the Asian impact is setting in:

"To be sure, despite claims that the impact will be slight, the economies of the United States and other nations already have been affected--exports down, company earnings lowered. Boeing Co. is selling fewer planes because Asian buyers are backing away from orders. U.S. companies such as Ford Motor Co. are settling in for "quite a few years instability," said Ford Chairman Alexander Trotman."

I've noticed so many papers writing just so much, all of a sudden, that it would be a trial for us all to read it. Fortunately, Donald showed us the pattern in world affairs before it was easily seen, like the shadows in the magic eye pictures. Thank you, Donald.

(Thu May 28 1998 21:44 - ID#247273)
Hedgehog - Japan article
Thanks for the posting. I especially like the "negative growth" reference; try it with "positive shrinkage", much like "jumbo shrimp", must have been written by the "going forward" crowd.

thanks for the insight

(Thu May 28 1998 21:46 - ID#43349)
Hyperinflation generally occurs when great gobs
of money are printed with little or no backing
and no balancing of budgets. Often comes when
a country with not enough resources or reserves
needs t suppor, say, a war effort on a crash

Deflation occurs when no one wants to buy
anything now because prices are dropping and
it'll be cheaper tomorrow or they just plain
don't have the cash because of a depression.

Deflations are kinda rare, inflations pretty
common, and hyperinflations even rarer than

If the Fed contiues to let things run without
doing anything I would guess we would lapse into
recession, deflation and perhaps even eventual

Gianni Dioro__A
(Thu May 28 1998 21:48 - ID#384350)
Jack, Swissy
That's what I meant, Swissies in circulation.

What would happen if Swiss nationals got worried about Y2K and started demanding Swiss notes for all that digital crap? What if currency in circulation grew by 10 or 100 fold. Would the Swiss bank have the gold to back it?

(Thu May 28 1998 21:52 - ID#20748)
Thanks. Please get a Mac. Life is so much simpler with it.

This rumor may well be true. Everyone has been waiting for one last announcement from a European CB. This will free up the the EMU to announce the gold component of their reserves, and remove the perpetual uncertainty in the gold market.

Large cap gold stocks did move up on heavy volume today.

For those who could'nt open the url, like me, here is what Murphy said.

Started By: Bill Murphy
Date: May 28 1998 8:18PM ET

Food for thought,
We have felt for about one year and one half that the Dutch have been selling gold, secretly. Almost no one believes this. If this is true, it means that the demand for gold is much greater than almost everyone thinks. We have been told this last tranche of EMU related central bank selling is coming, or has come to, and end. If we are correct, and this is the case, future near term supply will be greatly reduced and this big source of supply, that has been there for some time, will not be there to suppress the next price rally. A big rally.
Last week we received a tip that the specs were going to be set up before a big gold rally. The old Swiss news, of there potential future sales, released again yesterday, accomplished this. Open interest, on Comex alone, was up over 9,000 contracts. OTC increase in spec shorts was much, much bigger. Today we received a rumor, supposedly coming from another good source, that something about a Dutch sale was spreading among the highest echelons of the gold market. This is the first time we have heard this. Our good friends at the golden-eagle web site reported an astonishing number of hits on their site from a highly visible Euopean Central Bank. The number is the most striking one I have ever heard of from an institution of this type,
Today the XAU was up 1.50 with gold down $1. If a leak has occurred, one would buy the big cap gold stocks. Time will tell, but if a big sale is announced, it will change the dynamics of the gold market very favorably, no matter what the initial reaction is.

Bill Murphy
Veneroso Associates

(Thu May 28 1998 21:53 - ID#43349)
Martin Armstrong is correct in seeing that a
loss of faith in government can lead to a gold
bull market, but I think you have to go further
that that. Faith can be lost in one's governmenta;
leaders without losing faith in business and the
banking system. There have been many times when
people had little or no faith in government but
there was no bull market in gold.

For the people with money to move their wealth
into real assets like gold takes a loss of faith
in the buying power of the currency or fear of
instability in the banking system.

(Thu May 28 1998 21:54 - ID#27341)
Gollum, thanks, im betting on deflation.

(Thu May 28 1998 21:58 - ID#27341)
ABC, radio, Pakistan may be about to test another bomb, US spy sat.

(Thu May 28 1998 21:58 - ID#227238)
Gollum: Given the extreme ( and growing ) level of debt in the US; do you have any thoughts on same, resulting from an ultimate depression? Default a possibility in your mind? Push on a string by printing a solution?

(Thu May 28 1998 22:00 - ID#247273)
Gollum, loss of faith
Agree that loss of faith in govt does not necessarily bring on gold bull or even uptrend in POG. There must be negatives, either from within the govt, or external. The loss of faith in govt can exacerbate the situation, and amplify its effect, imho

(Thu May 28 1998 22:00 - ID#57232)
More Pakistan Nuclear tests pending -- from Matt Drudge
What is the reason for more tests? Has Pakistan not made its point yet? Very odd. I guess they have to outnumber India's tests. These weapons are not cheap. Think of all the people that might not have died, had the resources been used to save lives, rather than make something that has no constructive use. And -- after all this is over, they will make more weapons of war.

Give me the good old cold war days, when we knew our enemy was not that different from us. Now, who knows what one of many countries with nuclear weapons will do? Wealth and gold is not really very effective against nuclear war or nuclear terrorism. Only world-wide public opinion.

And we Americans are worried about gun control? This is far more significant, as the survival of the human race is at stake, eventually.

I wonder what BC will do about this. So far, he has been totally ineffective -- and -- I believe Pakistan got most of their nuclear technology from China.

(Thu May 28 1998 22:00 - ID#43349)
The big three swing enough weight that they
might be heard if they cry hard enough. Unfortuneately
unemployment is still too low and not enough
business failures yet for the powers that be to
take them too seriously...but we're getting there.

(Thu May 28 1998 22:00 - ID#342376)
Veneroso Associates.....
They now have started two threads on Silicon Investor. When posts are made, more than once the response has been "you need to buy our Gold Book" I still hope they are right, but it is shameful advertising.

(Thu May 28 1998 22:00 - ID#288295)
Crash Update
The crash update has dropped by two points today, and is now at -8 ...

(Thu May 28 1998 22:01 - ID#284255)
European bourses
Interesting to get a reversal on these indices again.
Many were up strongly 1% to 1.5%
And they closed down around .5%

Twice this week we have seen a stong opening turn to negativity.
A consciousness change of heart.

Many US indices have fallen out of their pennant formations.
They should now go back up to retest their pennant breakouts.
Before turning downwards again.
On the charts they only need one reasonable day up to achieve this formation.

(Thu May 28 1998 22:02 - ID#288295)
Crash Update
The crash update has dropped by two points today, and is now at -8 ...

(Thu May 28 1998 22:02 - ID#252391)
Re Coke
Another measure of absurdity: a 1/4 point move in the price of KO is equal to the value of all the silver stocks in the Comex vaults.

However, what do you suppose will happen to the price of silver if demand in India drops to the dropping of a Paki bomb.

So much for silver as a hedge against political and social turmoil.

The Pakis are arming missles with atomic weapons -

think I'll have a Coke.

(Thu May 28 1998 22:03 - ID#45173)
Gollum: deflation vs inflation vs hyperinflation
Hyperinflation can be halted by taking steps that correct the underlying conditions. Deflations, however, tend to take on a life of their own, as the Japanese are now rediscovering.

Any move on interest rates will have an undesirable impact on the stock market, either crashing it or causing it to balloon further. Do you think the Fed is paralyzed by a hairtrigger on the interest rate lever and a president that doesn't want it to happen on his watch?

(Thu May 28 1998 22:06 - ID#237264)
Gianni Di'Oro

I can't see the Swiss people becoming alarmed as the country has a long record of stability, but it sure is a point to consider.

I think that the biggest worry of their government is that to many EU citizens will open SF accounts and then demand and leave with those SF's to spend elsewhere.

This is why that during their history they have been know to charge negative interest rates to keep huge inflows of foreign cash that wanted SF's out of the banks.

Gusto Oro
(Thu May 28 1998 22:09 - ID#430260)
Get the UN out of the US and let some other deadbeat country have the UN for a puppet. --AG

(Thu May 28 1998 22:10 - ID#288295)
JTF @ Nuke testing

Just to reiterate a point made before - if Pakistan and India are willing to waste 5 nukes doing tests, it means that they have LOTS more of these devices on hand if they should be needed.

(Thu May 28 1998 22:11 - ID#57232)
NJ -- re Frank Veneroso
NJ- Why does Veneroso associates have such a fixation on COMEX? I thought he would know the real action is at the LBMA.

Regardless, the comments about the Dutch are interesting. I posted about this earlier today -- We now have a Dutch Eurobank chairman. Coincidence? Perhaps not, if you can sell your gold and still have control over it. Wish I could do that.

RJ: Any news about the Dutch selling gold? Any new announcements?

(Thu May 28 1998 22:11 - ID#57232)
NJ -- re Frank Veneroso
NJ- Why does Veneroso associates have such a fixation on COMEX? I thought he would know the real action is at the LBMA.

Regardless, the comments about the Dutch are interesting. I posted about this earlier today -- We now have a Dutch Eurobank chairman. Coincidence? Perhaps not, if you can sell your gold and still have control over it. Wish I could do that.

RJ: Any news about the Dutch selling gold? Any new announcements?

Gianni Dioro__A
(Thu May 28 1998 22:13 - ID#384350)
Jack, Gold backed
So if all these foreigners wanted Swiss paper, then why not just accept the foreign currency, buy gold with it, and print more Swiss paper?

Thus, more Swissies in circulation, and more gold in the Swiss Bank. It would be a sort of reserve currency.

(Thu May 28 1998 22:16 - ID#57232)
silverbaron: Of course you are right. What makes me mad is the sheer waste. Pakistan might explode all of its nuclear weapons to prove that it has more than just a few. And -- then it will certainly be obligated to make more. I would not consider the world's economic situation an ideal setting for uncontrolled nuclear proliferation, irrespective of the ethical situation.

I do not like what is happening to us -- all of us on this planet. We do not have another planet to colonize if things get to hot on this one. This is all we've got, so we better behave -- all of us.

(Thu May 28 1998 22:17 - ID#335190)
JTF (Fatima prophesies -- @ The workings of men, and their GOD.
You Suggested: "I don't think that any one religion should have a monopoly on the attention of the Supreme Being, although the messsage might have been distorted by human interpretation"

I do not know about the workings of "interpretations" and "One Religion" and "Distortion". Yes, I have a view, and as an example, here is a group that I suspect are believers in GOD "The Supreme Being" and their view that a "Distortion" ( ERROR ) exists in the Bible. This could be of interest to everyone that suggests their is only "THEIR GOD". Gets complex EH!

( You may consider this to be in bad taste, but, for the record,I do not believe in the European's GOD )

I have a Bible that reads nothing like these people have read.
( To the most high and mighty prince. JAMES, by the grace of GOD. King of great britain, france, and ireland, defender of the faith. )

The book of Ecclesiastes, or "the Preacher," is unique in scripture. There is no other book like it, because it is the only book in the Bible that reflects a human, rather than a divine, point of view. This book is filled with error.

Ecclesiastes is not atheistic; to be atheistic is to be unrealistic, and the Bible is never unrealistic. An atheist is one who has convinced himself by long argument that there is no God, even though every inward testimony of his conscience and the structure of the universe around him are constant witnesses to the fact that there is a God.

For the most part, only the educated man is an atheist. Or, the man who does not desire to face life's realities, because he wants to convince himself that there is no God to whom he must answer. But this book is not atheistic, even though it is written from a humanistic point of view.

Bottom line, we all must answer. Much of those that worship GOD are but
"TRICKSTER'S" First Nations people do not have "EVIL." Only Backwardness or "Trickster's"

FWIW....ALL,I do not wish to offend, just a point of view........Take Care

(Thu May 28 1998 22:18 - ID#43349)
There is more apparent wealth in the market tham
there are dollars. People have overextended jist
like the farmers in the early 20's because they
could pay it back by cashing in their investments
at some future date ( and maybe even have a little
left over :- ) ) . If inflation sets in they have a
chance of being right. If inflation is held in check
and the markets contiue to grow at 20% a year, they
also have a chance.

It's a darn slim chance. If the markets go down they
lose. If they get unemployed they lose.

In market crashes things happen fast at first.
Sometimes the market is lucky and recovers before
things get irretrievably out of control like in
87. But often as not they don't. Brokerage houses
and banks fail. Hedged positions turn out not to
have been and savings accounts turn out to be
worthless ( well, sometimes they are insured, but
it takes forever to get you money back ) .

Lots of defaults.

(Thu May 28 1998 22:18 - ID#30116)
And so it goes....
Ken Starr going to the Supreme Court and asking for an 'expedited hearing' on the Executive Privilege issue.

(Thu May 28 1998 22:19 - ID#342376)
Another Veneroso Associates post just made on Silicon Investor.
Re Swiss,
We have been told that the head of one of the biggest gold companies has been told by the President of Switzerland, the odds are only one in three, the referendum will pass.

(Thu May 28 1998 22:19 - ID#284255)
Global Intelligence Update
Yeltsin Prepares for Increased State Control of the Press

Russian President Boris Yeltsin on Thursday, May 28, called together the
country's top television executives and warned them to "follow the state
position" in reporting internal crises. While reassuring the executives
that "Freedom of the press will remain as it is," Yeltsin expressed his
displeasure at the media's coverage of a miners strike that paralyzed
sections of the country for over a week. Said Yeltsin, "We have a right to
ask to carry out state policy through television."

Yeltsin also addressed the executives' concerns over a May 8 decree in
which he created the new All-Russian State Television and Radio
Broadcasting Company ( VGTRK ) , a unified holding company. The decree
centralized control of the federal government's media outlets. Yeltsin
told the executives, "It seems to me you have, for some reason, been scared
by this decree. I would , therefore, like to say that we have no intention
of introducing anything special here. Yes, this unified state television
structure is being set up, but that doesn't at all mean we want to take
over television."

Yeltsin's desire to gain control of news media surfaced earlier this week
when, on Monday, he opened a conference of the International Press
Institute in Moscow. Yeltsin attacked Russia's media moguls, claiming that
they "openly interfere in editorial policy and determine what may be
written or say what is off limits." He said that dependence on private
ownership is a "global problem" of mass media. He decried cases in Europe
in which "a true outburst of nationalism and extremism" had been "often
fueled by the press." Yeltsin said that journalists must "provide true and
objective information," by which he apparently meant toe the party line.'
Yeltsin further noted that, "Currently, Russian journalists face no
barriers to or limitations of the... honest fulfilment of their
professional duty. However, cases of violating professional ethics are
quite frequent."

A new position has been created within Yeltsin's administration with
responsibilities that will help facilitate gradual reassertion of state
control over the press. The new Deputy Head of the Presidential
Administration, Igor Shabdurasulov, told a reporter with Russia's RIA news
agency that he "will be in cooperation with the mass media, journalists,
and their managers." He said his three areas of activity will be to,
"build up a serious base of normative acts for the activity of the mass
media;" to "work with the president's experts, a group of speech writers;"
and to promote "relations between the presidential administration and the
creative intelligentsia." Shabdurasulov noted that, "unfortunately, the
government apparatus's culture and information department had been closed,"
but that he would work to streamline relations between the administration
and "workers in culture."

In our Annual Forecast we wrote:

"As Asia moves toward enclosure, Russia will continue to reawaken. The era
of reform is now over. Yeltsin has made that perfectly clear himself.
Whether or not Yeltsin survives politically or personally is immaterial.
The promise of 1991 has become an untenable nightmare for the mass of
Russians. The fall of Communism ushered in a massive depression in the
Russian economy while simultaneously robbing Russia of its global
influence. Some have benefitted. The emergence of the new class merely
exacerbates the political problem by creating deep resentments that cannot
be indefinitely contained. The Asian crisis has raised serious questions
about investments in Russia as well. Western investment has been
insufficient, squandered and misappropriated. Now, it will no longer be
there. The incentive to reform and liberalize has evaporated.

As a result, Russia, which had swung far into the Westernizing, modernizing
camp will now experience what is, for Russia, the inevitable reaction:
xenophobia and authoritarianism. We expect that the Communists and
nationalists who control the Duma will enter a coalition government in
1998. Most reformers have already been forced out. The issue is how far the
counter-revolution will go. In our view, it will go very far, and in the
tradition of Russian counter-revolution, today's fabulously wealthy will be
extraordinarily vulnerable. The question at hand: how far and how brutal
will the traditional Russian retribution toward Westernizing modernizers be
this time?"

( )

Russia's economic meltdown is common knowledge, as are its attempts to
control the crisis by fiscal measures. However, Moscow is preparing for
more than just interest rate hikes. Yeltsin's recent cabinet restructuring
was driven in large part by a need to marginalize the country's tycoons and
reassert state control over the oil sector. Yeltsin's move on the
communications sector continues the pattern of reassertion of state control
over vital sectors-again at the expense of the oligarches. Russia's
experiment with liberalism has failed. Enter the technocrats, and the
centralization of the levers of power.

(Thu May 28 1998 22:19 - ID#20748)
Latest from Martin Armstrong is not encouraging for precious metals. Especially for Silver and Palladium.



By Martin A. Armstrong
 May 28th, 1998 - posted 10AM

Russia is starting to move into a very critical economic crisis. While the problems of Russia have been
well reported by the Press as interest rates hit 150% and the stock market collapses along with the
currency, the precious metals are starting to be impacted by UNOFFICIAL Russian sales. Palladium is
now being offered around on a direct deal basis. Exactly how much stands to come out may surprise the

Silver has just begun to be delivered into Zurich. While this is currently in non-deliverable form for the
exchange, reliable sources are claiming that Russia may sell as much as 300 million ounces. While this
news is unlikely to cause an immediate collapse in silver, we believe that some of those involved in the
previous hoarding of silver are in a desperate situation. While there will be an attempt to hold silver at
the $5 level, any attempt to push prices back to retest the $5.40 level may be met with significant
resistance. Be warned, the next rally may be used by some of the professionals who have been
significantly long as an exit strategy. One trade house is aggressively long and has bought about 10,000
contracts from $5.40 all the way down in a vain attempt to protect their positions. We see sizable
resistance now building at the $5.13-$5.15, $5.25-$5.30 area followed by $5.35-$5.37, $5.40-5.45 and
$5.50-5.65. As long as silver remains BELOW $5.50 on a weekly closing basis, it is still vulnerable to a
serious collapse back to the $4.50 level. The bear market in silver could extend into 1999 before any
sustainable recovery can be mounted. However, if panic selling begins from Russia, it is not out of the
question that silver might still penetrate the previous double bottom at $3.50 before a change in trend on
the long-term emerges. A month-end closing BELOW $5 will be extremely bearish. However, even a
monthly closing BELOW $5.65 will keep the short-term outlook quite negative for now.

We would also be cautious about gold just yet. While we have not heard of an intent to sell gold in
quantity on the part of Russia, given the timing models and seasonal patterns, gold could still make its
traditional June/July low as has been the case at most historical bottoms. A simple month-end closing
BELOW $298.60 on spot will leave gold in a bearish position going into June/July. A weekly closing
BELOW $288.60 will warn that new lows are possible. Given the fact that Russian sales of Palladium are
confirmed as well as the first deliveries of silver, one must be careful that gold sales could follow.

Pakistan has set off two tests today. Tensions within the region continue to heat up. This is having an
additional negative impact on the silver market. Following the Indian blasts, silver did not fare very well
indeed. Between economic sanctions, collapsing domestic demand for silver and greater turmoil ahead in
South East Asia, supply is starting to increase rapidly relative to demand. The big rumor is that Buffett
over-estimated demand for silver based predominantly on India's retail consumption. India surprised
many by leasing back almost 100 tons of silver at the top of the market. 40 tons of silver, which had be
held at the Dubai terminal for India, was sent back to London when prices jumped. Conflict in this region
may not prove to be bullish for silver in the short-term. As tensions rise, the Rupee is coming under
pressure making silver more attractive to sell rather than buy.

While we know that many diehard bulls in silver dislike any analysis that is contrary to their beloved
commodity, we must keep in mind that professionals are traders, which means that they will buy or sell
depending upon their view. Everything has a time and place. Our bearishness on silver has been based
upon the fundamentals that we know to be true. Our technical view is also based upon the fact that when
a single market stands out against the grain of the entire world financial system, something is wrong.
When commodities are collapsing, the budget is moving into surplus for the first time since Neil
Armstrong landed on the Moon and the dollar is supreme lord and master, it is impossible to expect the
metals to enter a bull market. While none of these factors will remain in place forever, it is senseless to
fight against a trend that has simply not run its course. This has been the case for silver. The hype does
not match the trend. One day that trend will change but that day is just not here at this point in time.

(Thu May 28 1998 22:21 - ID#27341)
do you think this mess has only two posibilities,HYPO or DEF ? thanks

(Thu May 28 1998 22:23 - ID#30116)
COOKIES and such.
What gives with the Kitco cookies? Mine keep getting lost or changing their 'size' in bytes the last few days. Anyone else having 'cookie' problems?

I'll reflect on cookies tomorrow. :- ) )

Good night all......

(Thu May 28 1998 22:24 - ID#72316)
EJ@ 21.34
EJ, I didn't say it, just my pully chain mood.. Actualy after reading this sight for a couple of months I almost bought some physical. But now I can't quite figure out how we can go back to gold coins. As long as we all agree that fiat is acceptable , so it shall be. I don't have a problem with that thought. I want a coffe, " that'll be a buck, sir". We both agree...In this day and age, it's difficult to see it any other way. Even if this armegedon happened, we very quickly would resume a fiat system IMHO...

(Thu May 28 1998 22:25 - ID#242325)
Gollum: I have long thought that one of the most bullish possible scenarios for gold would be if one or a few big money funds were to "break the buck" and not be made whole by their parent companies. People would then begin to doubt the safety of cash in a big way.

(Thu May 28 1998 22:25 - ID#43349)
True enough. Its like eating a high fat diet.
It predisposes one to a heart attack, but does
not neccesariy give them one.

(Thu May 28 1998 22:26 - ID#287186)
Note to Sam that ALL may find to be a chuckle (or not
Thank gosh our world does not run on computers with the reliability of our desktop PCs.
I better order four more cases of beans.
And another 192 rolls of TP.

(Thu May 28 1998 22:28 - ID#20748)
Where is Haggis when we need him. Not in a helicopter I hope.

(Thu May 28 1998 22:29 - ID#317193)
Thanks much for the answer to my question. Once again, your efforts are appreciated. In over 18 years gold has been below spot $290 for a mere matter of days. I believe I can assess the downside risk at the present price of gold.

Perhaps the sky is not falling. Maybe it was just FND?


(Thu May 28 1998 22:29 - ID#287186)
For rations to depend on after Y2K.
Remind me not to buy any COOKIES };- )

(Thu May 28 1998 22:31 - ID#57232)
Martin Armstrong post
NJ, all: Is there a way to confirm this bearish news for silver and gold coming from Russia?

We must not forget that in times of crisis, the people will sell gold and silver too, not just governments. My problem with this news is that I would expect to hear more about Russian troubles, and sales of US dollars first. I would expect that the Russians would sell their US dollars long before they sell gold and silver. I see no reason for the Russian government to squander their gold and silver -- unless there is a reason we have not yet unearthed. Perhaps they have already used up their US dollars.

(Thu May 28 1998 22:32 - ID#72316)
Sharefin @ 22.19
Controlling Russian press,,,

The problem is they have to say it... They've even bought the hype....
Here the Oligarchy does control the press, no need to mention control words...

(Thu May 28 1998 22:32 - ID#43349)
No, there's things like stagflation and such.
It's just at this juncture there has been too
much water under the bridge already to dam the
flood. Indonesia's alreay gone down, Japan, Russia,
Korea, Malasia, Hong Kong, etc.

Dealing with inflation is not too tough, but
with the fix we're in now takes exquisite timing
and I don't think the Fed's good enough.

Gianni Dioro__A
(Thu May 28 1998 22:36 - ID#384350)
Thanks for the links.

(Thu May 28 1998 22:40 - ID#72316)
Again to Sharefin
Actually , and I think it is because of the nature of good reporters, the real stories are there, ( in our press ) , but you have to search a little and read between the lines a lot...

Big Time Tom
(Thu May 28 1998 22:41 - ID#212320)

Well RJ, I guess I won't see you on that cruise after all. Too bad. But here's wishing you a great time. And who knows, maybe you will meet the love of your life. Such things do happen, you know. Even when you don't want them too!


(Thu May 28 1998 22:45 - ID#244418)
The advantages of Belize
I have been considering moving to Belize. Mozel's recent posts regarding emergency government have added urgency to this. Emergency FEMA rule in the wake of Y2K breakdown--what does it mean in real terms? It means the USG can organize people into work brigades to labor at assigned jobs. They can confiscate any earnings from your gold investments. They can forcibly relocate you and your family. They will certainly have ration cards for fuel and food, and you will most certainly be spending hours and hours standing in food lines. That way they keep everyone tired out and demoralized.

These are the advantages of Belize: This is only based on my study, I have not been there yet. Belize is immediately south of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, facing the Caribbean. Formerly British Honduras,

it is the size of Massachussets, 8000 square miles, but it has a population of only 220,000. Costa Rica is similar in size, with a population of five to six million. Low population density advantage.

The official language is English. Newspapers, government forms, radio,

road signs are in English. Belize is a constitutional democracy with a

bill of rights, and a legal system inherited from Britain. It does not have an army, and has never had a coup. The police do not carry guns.

The people are, quote, "laid back--laid way back", says one book. A foreigner can come to Belize and buy land, almost on the spot, unlike most countries. It is a two hour flight from Houston, New Orleans, or Miami. There are a number of Mennonite farm communities, with perhaps 6500 total population. I look at this as big plus, because they have been committed to low-tech appropriate tech farming methods for generations. Y2k will not affect them! They are solid, I mean solid people. Land is not too expensive yet, but that is changing, so I understand, as Belize becomes 'discovered'. There is no racial antagonism I am aware of, in this country of 45% blacks, 30% Mestizo ( Indian-Spanish mix ) and 10% Mayan ( extremely gentle people ) and the remainder European and American ex-patriates. Easy to get residency after

6 months. I'm going in July to scope it out. Any comments appreciated.

I don't think they have any restrictions on gold ownership ( see, this is a gold-related post ) . It does seem logical to me that during the y2k computer crash, the whole population of this country will be caught between the lower millstone of anarchy and the upper millstone of a military junta.

(Thu May 28 1998 22:48 - ID#27341)
i am aware of stagf and other posibilities, war ect, but i feel the US fed has lost the plot, and if we take out war and just leave economics, bread and butter, we seem to be left with hypo or def=dep ?

(Thu May 28 1998 22:49 - ID#43349)
No, I think the Fed is paralyzed by just flat
out not knowing what to do.

As you say, inflation is pretty easy to deal
with and they know how to do that.

But deflation is much harder and take exquisite
timing. They have waited too long to raise rates
and let the market run on too much. At first
because things seemed to be going fine and later
because they were afraid of the asian thing.

Now they have to wait for the economy and markets
to start to slow down and drop of their own accord
and then gently lower the rates to keep them from
going down too fast.

It's kind of like flying a plane. They should have
cut power a long time ago to keep from stalling out,
but now that it's too late to avoid the stall they
need to let it nose over and apply some power to
get it out a spin before it hits the ground.

(Thu May 28 1998 22:50 - ID#20748)
At times like this I wish Donald was here. He has all the facts and numbers; but let me try.

Russian gold reserves were exhausted in the late eighties and early nineties. Knowledgeable people at that time were of the opinion that the Soviets were scraping the very bottom of their barrel by even selling gold from the tsarist treasures.

The ruble has been devalued many many times and is nearly worthless.

To get hard currency in exchange, the only assets available to them are platinum, palladium and silver. I have no idea of how much they have of each metal to sell.

(Thu May 28 1998 22:52 - ID#43349)
I think that's pretty close to the mark. There
is a chance they could pull it out, but it's
slim. See my note to Earl.

(Thu May 28 1998 22:53 - ID#252127)

Gianni: The foreign paper would most likely going into SF because the holders of those notes would be in fear of their own nations situation, better the Swiss use their own currency to buy gold, thus cutting the SF's in circulation still further.

I think what you were originally refering to was indivigual banks in Switzerland who may have heavy derivative exposure.

Their banks past finacial history indicates that they are extremely conservative compared to say US Banks.

(Thu May 28 1998 22:53 - ID#152163)
inflation or deflation
I really don't see how we can have deflation when there is so much money being printed by the fed. Employees of companies are sitting on $1 trillion in stock options they haven't exercised yet, that isn't even included in the governments estimate of employee pay increases, there are all the Asian countries buying greenbacks, or bonds that the fed issues, and we still have a $5 trillion acumulated deficit, that is collecting interest. Deflation is just a hoax.!!

(Thu May 28 1998 22:53 - ID#20748)
Don't forget the political imperatives.

(Thu May 28 1998 22:55 - ID#43349)
They would certainly doubt the safety of funds,
that's for sure.

(Thu May 28 1998 22:55 - ID#22956)
*gettin FROTHY*
All this talk ( earlier ) about Platinum has worked me up a froth.......I think I'll go shower up......... ( whew!! ) ...

I like Plat too at these prices......uh huh. back up the dump-truck


(Thu May 28 1998 22:58 - ID#20748)
This from the Drudge Report
Now we know why George Bush lost the election.


Speaking at Harvard's Kennedy School of Government on Thursday, former President George Bush defended Bill Clinton's planned June trip
to China, saying that actively engaging it was the only sensible policy for the United States, the BOSTON GLOBE reports. "I think he
ought to go to China," the former president said. "I think it would be a big mistake for him not to go to China."

The GLOBE's Scott Lehigh reports on Friday that Bush downplayed Republican accusations that the Clinton administration has let its
China policy be influenced by political donations funneled from China to the Democratic Party.

Bush said: "I honestly find it very difficult to believe that anybody would do something that's not in the security interests of this
country for a contribution to a political party."

"I think it is sickening if, as alleged, they tried to give money to the Democratic National Committee," smiled Bush, who joked the
Chinese should have given to both political parties.

During his 1992 campaign, Clinton was a harsh critic of Bush's policy of engagement with China. In a speech at Georgetown University,
Clinton even accused his rival of coddling the Chinese -- only to adopt the same basic policy upon taking office.

[CLINTON: "The Bush administration continues to coddle China, despite its continuing crackdown on democratic reform, its brutal
subjugation of Tibet, its irresponsible export of nuclear and missile technology... Such forbearance on our part might have made sense
during the Cold War when China was the counterweight to Soviet power. It makes no sense to play the China card now when our opponents
have thrown in their hand. [Applause]" ]

At Harvard on Thursday, the former president insisted that a healthy US-Chinese relationship is crucial to a peaceful and prosperous
future on Earth.

"I think it is that big, that important," Bush said. "I am telling you, if we neglect it, or if we continually bash to feel good, in
spite of the things that they are doing wrong, we make a huge mistake... They are totalitarians. But they have done remarkable things
that have raised the standard of living and so I think we ought to stay involved with them."

(Thu May 28 1998 22:58 - ID#206298)
BCIWN- Where is
a web site that has the best ( most accurate time wise ) gold and silver spot price quotes? If anybody has suggestion please put them up on the board. Thanks.

(Thu May 28 1998 23:02 - ID#20748)
George Bush on China
Can you imagine President Reagan saying that? SDI won the cold war and now they are giving it away to China.

(Thu May 28 1998 23:03 - ID#93199)
Fidelity Select Gold Chart
Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious Metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )

Fidelity Select Energy & Energy Service Chart

Fidelity Select Computers, Electronics & Software Chart

(Thu May 28 1998 23:03 - ID#340302)
@RJ...let's go over it again, point by point...
RJ, although I do not trade plat/palladium, it does not exactly come as a major revelation to hear that the public does not play this market. After all, there effectively is only one notable mining company ( Stillwater ) that mines the stuff in the entire country...and it trades on relatively low volume most days. Half a year ago, I explored buying some stock...but my sizeable bid never was executed owing to the abysmal, low trading volume in the stock. Recognizing this fact, I decided to avoid the stock since one rule I make in investments is the imperative of sufficient daily liquidity.

Analogously, the average public does not trade COMEX gold or silver futures either, instead preferring to trade gold equities.

My apologies for usage of the term "populist." My post was composed in a hurry as I had a late afternoon appointment and the term "populist" was simply the first adjective to pop into my mind. Instead, I should have opted for the term, "average trader." Are you happy?

Substituting this new term, then one would assume there are traders that are extremely well educated in the markets and those that are not. That's what makes a market....those that know and those that don't.

Again, I will restate...knowledge about the real facts of an investment situation does not guarantee that the remaining players have the same knowledge. Ultimately, a commodity price moves either up or down based on the preponderance of buyers or sellers. If the majority of hedge funds and commercials believe or understand something other than the real facts, then at least in the short term, the commodity will move in the direction of that preponderant belief. So, for example, if it is thought that Russia's economic collapse is bad for Plat/Palladium prices, then down they will FALL ( and so far, my assertion that enraged you so greatly from two days ago is proven correct...yours is not ) .

For you to state that perception plays zero role in plat/palladium markets is totally absurd. Perception plays a role in all markets. If not, then it would NOT be a market. Capiche?

You continuously insist that the floor support of PGM's are the existent laws in the country. Yet, laws are enacted and revoked by the stroke of a pen. If there were truly a major PGM shortage ( affecting strategic interests ) , then certainly the government would change the law in a heartbeat ( especially our neo-Republican, Clinton government that has shown little if any genuine environmental concern ) .

With respect to your line about Gold, it is the standard, tiresome bear presentation. 35,000 tons of gold owned by the Central banks ( yet no impartial third parties to verify the exact holdings of the Central banks -- and every indication that certain central banks refuse to part with a single ounce owing to its role as a historical financial reserve and this refusal even in the midst of a huge supply deficit from annual mine production ) ...tens of thousands of tons sprinkled everywhere in the world ( yet an incredibly tiny fraction of wealth compared to the vast paper pyramid created since the gold standard was abandoned years ago ) .

Gold is a global financial reserve and when faith in American paper is lost, then it will be sought out with great fervor by ALL Americans.

We both agree that Plat/Palladium are esoteric, ergo in any financial meltdown, there will be no "populist" rush to obtain them.



(Thu May 28 1998 23:03 - ID#43349)
@deflation or inflation
when the prices of goods and commodities are
dropping you have deflation. Gold is down, oil
is down, foreign imports are down, goods that
have to compete with cheap foreign imports are

It matters little how much wealth is tied up
in paper or how much paper has been printed it
has to get out there and compete for goods
and drive prices up to create inflation.

Even during the depression there was plenty of
money. It was just in the pockets of the robber
barons instead of out on the street.

(Thu May 28 1998 23:03 - ID#45173)
Gollum: Thx, I like your airplane analogy
A similar thing happened in 1929. While it's generally believed the Fed did nothing, in fact it pumped out money and lowered interest rates after the initial crash in an attempt to stop the deflationary cycle. But I guess at a certain point everyone's max'd out on debt, certainly they are when they have few assets so they don't qualify for it, so corps and individuals only took on new debt at a lower rate to retire existing, higher cost debt, and this did not aid expansion. The economy continued to decline until WWII.

The Fed is pumping out money as we speak and has for the past five years, but inflation is approaching zero, unless you count equity inflation. Zero is perilously close to negative. This is my greatest worry relative to my gold.

(Thu May 28 1998 23:03 - ID#410215)
..... NJ .....

Nobody knows how much they have, but I have been following this very closely for three years now. Their reserves are exhausted. It would make sense that if they had it, they would sell it at the highest prices in history, yes?

(Thu May 28 1998 23:04 - ID#340302)
@GOLLUM...I get a real kick out of your sharp, incisive mind...
...I would appreciate any comments, good or bad, about my previous post to RJ.



(Thu May 28 1998 23:04 - ID#227168)
Love That Fresh Air---You can have the dump trunks
I was wandering by the pool and what did I see My filter was congested ---Oh My depressant ingognance What a great North American life Give me another CNN report God Bless America The land of the free ---Go home Communists. Away to see the Dow fall ---Sometime

(Thu May 28 1998 23:06 - ID#45173)
Gollum: ps, Earl and I are not the same person

(Thu May 28 1998 23:06 - ID#238422)
You are smart and extremely knowledgable. I like you.
When I said that palladium is dead, I thought about it
long and hard. This I know ( Another's language, yes? ) .

Gold from Russia? No, but may be a few kilos only...
Silver from Russia? Just a little bit, but they do
not have reserves of silver except in the defence industry...

Platinum - on top of RSA reserves this will not be a threat.
to long-term investing....

Conclusion: go platinum, gold, probably silver, dump
this bisexual love of speculators - palladium. Russia
got a lot of it and it's cheap to produce...

JTF, I like your curiousity and abbility to analyze.
But Russia and U.S. dollars are clued together like
cement. Russians dumping their US dollars reserves -
- be serious, man! They will propably sell Red Square
first, but not this nice green stuff. You got to be
Russian to know this. This I know...yes?

(Thu May 28 1998 23:06 - ID#43349)
You are right, I should have said do nothing
soon enough. With deflation or airplane stalls
timing is everything.

(Thu May 28 1998 23:08 - ID#238422)
JTF, sorry clued=glued.....

(Thu May 28 1998 23:09 - ID#207145)
Nuclear war in Asia& the president doesnt know s*it
I find this admin. to be negligent, derelect, and as worthless as tits on a bull..Lets hasng Clinton and Gore.

(Thu May 28 1998 23:12 - ID#27341)
Gollum, from a pilot, GOOD ONE, thanks again.

(Thu May 28 1998 23:15 - ID#43460)
ghost stories around the campfire part 2
It occurred to me that once y2k comes and goes we will need a new theme to scare ourselves silly with. I would vote for HDTV. Once high definition television is actually implemented we will have 4 years to convert then they'll shut down all the regular t.v. broadcasting. So give it 7 to 9 years from now to utter chaos. IMHO

The easy cheap availability of commercial t.v. is the ONLY thing which has kept Joe Six Pack, the average American from armed revolt in the streets. Take that away and there will be open warfare, with all the ghetto home boys going out on the prowl looking for a way of cadging the new expensive ones. At that point gold will be worth nothing except poured into rifle buttstocks as a way of reducing recoil or cast into high density bullets, not quite as expensive as the depeted uranium ones they use now. IMHO

( standard disclaimer applies )

(Thu May 28 1998 23:18 - ID#207145)
What USA corps. transferred secret tech. to CHICOMS.
Treason cannot be ignored like so many Clinton Whores. It dovetails with nuclear madness ( India& Pakistan ) . I am surprised at the nievite of Americans. Maybe we deserve what were getting?

(Thu May 28 1998 23:20 - ID#335190)
Sumitomo Metal Mining to buy stake in Canada mine

TOKYO, May 29 ( Reuters ) - Sumitomo Metal Mining Co Ltd said on Friday it would purchase shares in Canadian miner Teck Corp from Toronto-based metals producer Inmet Mining Corp for C$39 million.

As a result, Sumitomo Metal Mining's wholly owned subsidiary in Canada would have a 31.8 percent controlling stake in Teck, the Japanese mining firm said in a statement.

Sumitomo Metal Mining will buy all of Imnet's interest in Teck, which consists of 734,500 Class A shares in Teck and a 49 percent stake in Temagami Mining Co Ltd, which holds a total of 2.15 million Class A shares in Teck, it said.

The Sumitomo spokesman said the company expected the transaction to be completed by the end of May. Sumitomo Metal Mining and Teck launched the Stoneboy gold mine project in Alaska last year, he said.

(Thu May 28 1998 23:27 - ID#45173)
Inflation/Deflation and the Y2K wildcard
Y2K will if nothing else slow the rate of supply transactions, capital transactions, and the like, resulting in shortages of certain goods and services. This effect inflationary. However, cash may also be in short supply, literally in the short term. If problems drag on, inventories may grow. Unless special rules allow for extended credit, businesses will fail and significant unemployment will result. Even if production is effected equally so that inventories don't grow, in any case it's hard to imagine a scenario where employment rates will not increase greatly. This effect is deflationary. So, perhaps very intense inflation is possible in the first months following Y2K, followed by an extended period of deflation.

(Thu May 28 1998 23:28 - ID#247273)
blooper, et al
IMHO, Nuclear demonstrations are indicative of the overall Asian situation, and the absence of "SUPERPOWER" oversight. US has abdicated its role as the overseer and leader of world military affairs. IMHO. Although the demos can be attributed to long standing feuds between India and Pakistan, remember, this technology is 50 years old, and not considered technically challenging. They may have even bought the devices from former Soviet Bloc, or at least the fissionable material. Regardless, watch the economic situation as the harbinger of future military action, which, imho, will proceed post haste in the absence of "SUPERPOWER" action. Lead, follow, or get the hell out of the way.


(Thu May 28 1998 23:28 - ID#206298)
deflation or inflation, reply to gollum:
The price of commodities will go down based on supply and demand and the speculative price for as commodity.
If Ford starts putting out cars at 1/2 the price they are right now, that is going to be a result of built up inventories, not deflation. And because there is so much wealth out here now, they will get snatched up real fast. When a lake is full od water there is no reason to worry about thirst. When an economy is full of money, there is no reason to worry about deflation.

(Thu May 28 1998 23:29 - ID#390275)
Will palladium be used for cold fusion. It's alive again.
To Farfel: CETI corporation announced that it has consistently achieved cold fusion. Los Alamos National Laboratory on its web page states that it has been able to duplicate consistently the CETI cold fusion process.

Could this be why Palladium had a considerable run-up? It seems almost too good to be true.

fast lurker__A
(Thu May 28 1998 23:29 - ID#339203)
World Gold Prices
Try MSNBC for world gold. 20 minute delay, last posted 4:16 pm thursday

(Thu May 28 1998 23:30 - ID#43460)
Strad Master, you are a voice of reason! I salute you.
I'm amazed that the rest of you have such little faith in the stubbornness of the Western world. Surely good times have made the people soft but I think that in the end the descendants of Chickamauga, Manassas Creek and Shiloh will prevail.

As for the y2k problem, in the words of a great but unknown philosopher:
Madness takes its toll. Please have exact change.

(Thu May 28 1998 23:33 - ID#284255)
Glad I'm not a reporter there.
Or anyone over there.

I enjoy the small world perspective of OZ.
May it always be that way..

Regarding Belize

Could you please email me.
I have some more info for you.

(Thu May 28 1998 23:34 - ID#43349)
It was kind of long and it's getting kind of
late for me to comment on everything.Some points
I agree with, some I don't, and some I haven't
thought about. I do agree though with the main
point that markets and prices are driven by
perceptions. If a believable rumor of a shortage
of rubber baby buggy bumpers were to come out
the prices would immediately be bid up without
anyone waiting to see if it were true or not.

(Thu May 28 1998 23:36 - ID#153102)
Belize has a lot going for it by your report.
Please post the results of your findings.
I think there are gold projects underway there actually.

(Thu May 28 1998 23:37 - ID#227168)
I love those Kitco Nut Heads
Sometime and onetime the Government of the United States will prosecute you for what you are a Communist The Lover of Gold fall on your knees and never trade Gold Again. Farful repent the days of justice that will fall upon your head Try a Seagrams double rye

(Thu May 28 1998 23:38 - ID#206298)
inflation and gold
The US financial system is kind of like blowing up a ballon. If the person filling up the ballon sucks in air and puts his mouth to the ballon, the next step is to see the ballon fill up. What we see right now is Uncle Sams lungs are fully inflated and the air is getting ready to blow up the ballon ( inflation ) and the inflated lungs are getting ready to deflate. I think it is this deception that is keeping the price of gold down. 6 months before we really start to see the inflation in the the US, Wall Street will start buying gold!!

(Thu May 28 1998 23:42 - ID#225157)
Is George S Cole still calling for his gold bull market or has he lost all his money to invest???

(Thu May 28 1998 23:43 - ID#401460)
The Islamic Bomb

On Charlie Rose;
The Pakistan Bomb - " We are on a slippery slope now." Senator/Ambasador Moyahan
"Sanctions won't do it"

He sounds scared to death of what could or will happen now. He is very critical of the World letting this happen. "We are closer to failure then ever before!"

"Pakistan less likely to have rational people in leadership control."

Sorry about the spelling.


(Thu May 28 1998 23:43 - ID#45173)
BCIWN: Ford is making something like 9% margins on average
of all the models they sell. If they sell inventories at 1/2 price, they are taking a significant loss. This is not sustainable. This is another challenging quality of deflation. Commodity car manufacturers like Ford have 80% of their manufacturing capacity in products that earn margins that sustain the business at competitive prices, with 10% in "loss leader" models that may earn no profits and 10% in high margin, low volume models that may earn as much as twice the margins of the mid-range models. In deflationary times, the profitability of the mid-range models drops to where the plants have to be retooled in time to make models at a significantly lower cost of goods before too much cash is burned or debt is taken on making and selling the old stuff. Perversely, premium manufacturers, such as BMW, will do well selling the very highest-end models during a deflation, since as you say there is a lot of money out there, it's just that not many people have it.

(Thu May 28 1998 23:46 - ID#43349)
If becuase of supply and demand prices are
rising, that's inflation. If they are falling
that's deflation.

We can have either one without having to worry
about it. But if either one become runaway
inflation or runaway deflation, then there is
something to worry about.

At the current moment there ie neither inflation
nor deflation to any great extent. There is some
wage inflation apparently and some commodity
deflation but nothing serious. And as you so
correctly point out there is still plenty of
money being spent.

But we were discussing what would happen as the
current economic boom came to an end as it appears
might be happening.

How do you see things unfolding?

(Thu May 28 1998 23:47 - ID#27341)
Inflation v Deflation, ref, Japan, and they sell cars.

(Thu May 28 1998 23:47 - ID#207145)
Casper Weinberger telling Lou Dobbs........................................................
our defenses have weakened
we have no credibility.We have given secrets to red China.We are paper tigers with no claws, with no cause save for money.We are a shameful people now, and i fear we will have to pay a price for falling asleep at the wheel. Gutless, thats the unfortunate term that applies.

(Thu May 28 1998 23:53 - ID#347457)
@Strad Master & Cueball on Y2K
Strad Master:

You are asking the wrong person "how best to personally prepare for Y2K". To be honest, I am not doing anything special. It all depends on your personal lifestyle - mine is very simple ( I guess I am already in survival mode ;- ) ) Make a wise investment and be ready for some inconveniences. E.g., if you are a heavy user of ATM you may consider carrying extra cash. I dont stockpile food, I dont buy extra ammunition. However, how is that saying? .. "shoemaker kids go barefoot"? I work on Y2K but dont think about personal impact. I am in high-tech industry, however, my lifestyle is not wrapped around it. I have a cell phone but dont remember when was the last time I used it ;- ) Oh heck, I may stockpile my sailboat and go sailing ;- ) As you see, I am not too much concerned ( as far as I dont loose the rest of my money and have to work for the rest of my life ;- )


SPG Y2K conference in Orlando is over - it was on Apr 20-22. There is a bunch of them coming around the country. Look at

That homepage also describe program of these conferences so you will see if that is something you would be interested in.

(Thu May 28 1998 23:54 - ID#207145)
Defense buildup in our future. Silly as it may sound, things are heating up.
Defense spending, due to Iranian disruption of the Hormuz Straits, carried out with Chinese subs, Russian missiles, will send USA, back
to paniced defense spending. US Treasuries, dollar will tank, and at some point, gold will be the only SAFE haven.I am aware how this will be viewed, but

(Thu May 28 1998 23:55 - ID#206298)
EJ, I agree
with what you say about margins. And, to a degree, agree about money being in the hands of a small amount of people. I think, and could very well be wrong, that wealth is distributed widely enough in this country right now, that deflation won't take place. And I do think inflation is coming back because of the excessive amounts of money the fed is printing.

(Thu May 28 1998 23:56 - ID#401460)
S.Korea external liabilities $155 bln

Thursday May 28, 11:41 pm Eastern Time

SEOUL, May 29 ( Reuters ) - South Korea's provisional external liabilities at the end of April totalled $155.2 billion against $151.3 billion at the end of March, the finance ministry said in a statement on Friday.

A statement by the finance ministry said $41.9 billion, or 27 percent of total external liabilities, was short-term debt at the end of April. The comparable figure was $60.9 billion at the end of March.

But long-term debt at the end of April totalled $113.3 billion, up from $90.4 billion at the end of March, the statement said.

The ministry said external debt increased after South Korea issued $4 billion in sovereign bonds in April.


(Thu May 28 1998 23:57 - ID#27341)
Def v Inf, Japan, they also have 9 Tri in savings.

(Thu May 28 1998 23:58 - ID#174103)
Money Multiplier and some thoughts on deflation
The money multiplier, which is M2/Monetary base continues to shrink. I calculated it at 8.4 for April '98 It peaked at around 12 in 1929, and around 12.5 in 1987. ( from p. 343 of "The Great Reckoning", where it was at 11 as of 1992. ) It bottomed at 4.2 in 1939 ) .

As the authors point out, you can expand the monetary base, but you can't force people to borrow the stuff, which turns it into "money." According to this measure, we are at the beginning of a decade or so of a long deflationary wave.

I do not think that managing deflation by playing with monetary reserves is a good idea. You can expand the monetary base by lowering interest rates, reserve requirements, etc. but you can't force feed the economy. Lowering interest rates below their natural level ( the market's perception of the time-value and opportunity cost of spending/purchasing ) , results in malinvestments that generate debt that cannot be covered.

Deflation wipes out bad debts, and strengthens value, and as such is a salutary phenomenon, a cure for the inflationary disease. Inflation, OTOH, wipes out strong and weak creditors and debtors alike.

Attempts at goosing the economy by expanding the monetary base way over and above what the economy can absorb can result in hyperinflation, which tends to throw the fans into a frothing pother. Potent medicine for gold.....

Of course, inflation/deflation is what we get for having well-meaning clowns setting the level of the money supply rather than the market, but that's another story...:- )

Good discussion on this and many other subjects here...thanks all.

(Thu May 28 1998 23:59 - ID#227168)
That's why I love Kitco
Peter Old Gold is George Cole And he is long ---But Short And Long Sometimesbut never at the same time Only sometimes Maybe but not for sure? But?