Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

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(Thu Jun 04 1998 00:03 - ID#377196)
NY Gold... Omnitrader system gave a buy signal today on NY Gold, as it
held the March bottom yesterday at 286.75 and gave a Japanese Piercing Line/Dark Cloud candle pattern yesterday ( a Piercing Line occurs when

today's candle opens in the same direction as yesterday's move, but

reversese direction, closing well into the territory of yesterday's range ) . Piercing lines are of major significance especially at the end of

long moves. Several other daily signals were fired, including stochastic

divergence, a momentum peak, a Kirshenbaum band, and a Relative Strength

Index Peak.

This doesn't mean that it takes off immediately. It just means that

the troops have lined up, and are waiting for the moment to attack.

Also it doesn't mean the battle is going to be won; but the odds look to

be improving as time passes.

This morning in South Africa, Anglogold and the shareholders of several other smaller gold mining companies including, Eastvaal, Elandsrand, Ergo, Freegold, Joel, Southvaal, and Western Deeps will probably join forces to create the worl

(Thu Jun 04 1998 00:05 - ID#253228)
I am short 6000 sh Homestake plus have some July 10 puts.
Mostly in cash waiting to buy those $ .25 Homestake shares!!
If my S&P500 charts work out I probable will trade the second leg down on that also.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 00:07 - ID#206298)
@ goldkm
What is Omnitrader and where did you get all these indicators and canclestick readings from?

(Thu Jun 04 1998 00:09 - ID#206298)
Are your indicators saying spot gold is going down from here? And if so , how far?

(Thu Jun 04 1998 00:12 - ID#377196)
World's largest gold mining company...Anglogold will have production of
six million ounces and a resource base of 418 million ounces. The company will have a globally competitive cash and total cost profile ( to

say the least ) .

Bill El Zebub
(Thu Jun 04 1998 00:17 - ID#261352)
CNBC Talking Heads said to day that USG was approaching Japan with
plan to support the Yen and lessen the dollar.Bullshit or
inflation? Comments ?

(Thu Jun 04 1998 00:18 - ID#287186)
Gollum & Argent - Spam & beans (pintos?
Another dozen SILVER Maple Leafs I should've bought.
Instead I bought another three dozen cans of SPAM.{:- (
But at least I can eat the soup with a SILVER SPOON! }:- )

(Thu Jun 04 1998 00:21 - ID#206298)
@ Bill
What time today Bill. Are you saying US already approached or are going to?

Bill El Zebub
(Thu Jun 04 1998 00:25 - ID#261352)
BCIWN...Heard it approx. mid-day central standard US time. Just that
comment.I don't think they wanted to say more.PPT has to inflate
out of this.They know it and gold will know it soon.IMHO.NITE.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 00:34 - ID#377196)
Omnitrader...searches past historical data to come up with technical buy
and sell signals based on recognised indicators such as RSI, stochastics, and literally dozens of others. While it does produce signals, that's just the start of the process. Markets are tough and we all know no computer system will give you the Holy Grail. Every situation is completely unique.

Candlestick patterns are patterns recognized and used by the Japanese

for day to day trading. Most of them are useful in recognizing a

potential change in direction. One of the ones I like the best is the

Doji Star. This pattern occurs when the closing price equals the open.

This represents indecision in the market, and can be a precursor to a

reversal at the end of an uptrend or downtrend. Watch for it in an

average, commidity or stock.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 00:35 - ID#206298)
I just checked with Cnbc and couldn't find anything about it. I don't know what you heard, but I haven't seen or heard anything else on it.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 00:40 - ID#253228)
I only have calculations on Homestake and the S&P500. Since I am showing the S&P500 down between now and the end of the year and Homestake down for most of that time, I can only assume that gold will not be going up, but that it will not be down percentage wise as much as Homestake.

I guess I said just about nothing.

Every time I look at the gold rally early this year it looks like a counter trend rally to me. It looks most to me like a simple A-B-C rally in Elliott terms. Of course Elliott wave counting is so subjective until a year later and then everyone can see what the pattern was.

Again I said just about nothing.

I did post an update on my daily charts a few hours ago:

Some people think those charts say just about nothing also.

Just call me nil.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 01:16 - ID#57232)
It's not nil
Jeil: I for one appreciate what you are doing. Your predictions are no different from those of the best at Kitco. By the way, there is some logic toward gold going down more ( heresy ) . And -- that is -- there is nothing special about 280/oz. It is just a number. It never ceases to amaze me how idiotically people can behave to maintain a belief system that does not work. Take for example the oil industry or the computer chip industry -- if the price goes down, you raise production to maintain your profit. This is a nonlinear, self defeating process, and eventually fails when the weaker members of the trade group go bankrupt and are forced to shut down production. If there is a baseline demand for the good, production does not drop all the way to zero. Sort of like predator-prey.

Take the world's ( 'Western' ) financial system. Add decades of inflation and debt, and an ample supply of gold in the world's CB's. Eventually the debt catches up with you, and serial deflations start knocking out the members of the financial 'trade' group. But you naively try to maintain the ( belief ) system by selling ( or leasing ) one of your most precious assets -- gold. It is profitable to trade with the one asset you have that cannot be inflated/corrupted. Your trade group gets smaller and smaller, as the 'weaker' members fall out of the group, but you desperately keep repeating the same mistakes, whittling away at your gold 'savings' until you have no 'savings' left ( gold ) . Finally at some point you have ( as the last remaining fiat currency member ) nothing left to do except capitulate with a final deflationary event.

So -- the question is just how far will the 'fiat' currency trade group members go in their endeavors to prevent the inevitable. 280/0z, 260/oz, etc.? If gold goes below 280/oz, IMHO, it will be because Germany had to capitulate due to a major deflationary event in Europe. Germany has debt problems already with their welfare society. If things get that bad, even Switzerland may be forced to sell some gold to keep the illusion going a bit longer. A combined Russian/SEAsian/South American collapse might force their hand.

On the other hand, even major deflation cannot go on much longer, IMHO. And one way we can keep track is to count the 'fiat' economies that have -- or have not devalued. You can't do any real damage to the price of gold if you don't have any left to sell. But there are CB's that could still sell/lease more gold. Finally, there is no way of predicting how many chairs will be left when the music stops for the last time. One? More than one?

Just a thought, IMHO.

Jeil: How about looking at silver?

(Thu Jun 04 1998 01:19 - ID#284255)
Email chatter
G7 countries will try to curb yen fall - Goldman
NEW YORK, June 3 ( Reuters ) - Group of Seven nations will likely act to bolster the yen in currency markets to stem the economic slide across Asia and other emerging markets, according to Goldman, Sachs & Co.
The G7 may deem it necessary to temporarily bolster the yen until Japan's planned economic stimulus and reforms pull the nation out of its economic doldrums, said the brokerage firm in its client letter, the ''Weekly Analyst.''
Goldman said it is ''inevitable at some stage that the G7 countries will try to halt the yen's weakness, and while the market will doubt its effectiveness, it is quite likely that the G7 could stabilize the yen at stronger levels until the fiscal package has an impact from Q3 onwards.''
Additional yen weakness may worsen the Asian contagion to other emerging countries like Russia, Brazil and Mexico by weakening commodities prices and introducing higher risk premiums to compensate foreign investors, Goldman said.
Also, the firm said a declining yen makes a mockery of International Monetary Fund-driven policies in countries like South Korea and Thailand, where currency stability is regarded as a major priority.
Japanese policymakers believe the fiscal stimulus plans will have a positive impact on the economy but measures have yet to be implemented, said Goldman.
Without G7 intervention, dollar/yen will likely move toward 142, the top of the firm's forecasted Q2 trading range, with a risk to the upside.
Elsewhere, dollar bloc economies continued to be impacted by the crisis in Asia. Their currencies show abnormally high correlations to the yen because of Japan's importance as an export market and the steep slide in commodities prices.
Relatively speaking, Goldman said the Australian and Canadian economies are best positioned for continued growth and stable monetary policy. Meanwhile, New Zealand monetary policy is expected to lean toward easing well into 1999.
''In terms of strategy, we continue to favor the A$ and C$ over the NZ$. Both Australia and Canada are in a much better economic position relative to New Zealand to handle the negative effects of the Asian crisis,'' the report said.
Goldman forecast the NZ$ will weaken from about A$0.86 currently to A$0.83 in the near-term, with a medium-term target of A$0.80. Meanwhile, dollar/Canada at $1.4560 is vulnerable to a shift in U.S. short rate expectations that would widen the modest interest rate differential favoring the United States.
Compelling reasons for industrialised nations not to kill golden gooze
( commodities rich nations )
Gold cannot go down on selling without world-wide crisis Indonesia
style... In a market meltdown or a protracted bear market I think that the federal reserve will lower short-term rates and crank up the printing presses to prevent the resulting deflation that will occur if they are not successful. The inflationary implications of this action should light up the gold market as the dollar falls and long-term rates rise. If not successful then we will get deflation and gold probably will go down initially. What gold does later has been studied during previous eras of deflation and in the past has done quite well.
All being said whether or not one should be invested in gold or other markets depends on timing. Since we now have a triple bottom in gold I think it's a good time to own gold
speaking of cranking up the presses....
Broaddus says concerned about U.S. money growth
WASHINGTON, June 3 ( Reuters ) - The President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond said on Wednesday he
is uncomfortable with the current rate of money growth in the U.S. economy and suggested money supply should be
given a greater weight in monetary policy making

(Thu Jun 04 1998 01:22 - ID#284255)
Email chatter
from the Financial Times )
Bonds could be winners in the deflation scenario
Leading bond markets have been strong since mid-May even though equities have moved falteringly. Perhaps the markets are finally taking the deflation scenario seriously. Or maybe we have been seeing the impact of Japanese flight capital; this latest bond market upturn has coincided with renewed yen weakness.
There has been particular strength in UK gilts, the highest yielders in government bonds among the developed economies. The 10-year gilt yield had tumbled 30 basis points in just over two weeks before yesterday's setback, at one point almost closing the spread against the corresponding US Treasury bond. The spread against German bonds remains a substantial 90 basis points, but most of that gap reflects much higher income at the short end of the sterling yield curve rather than any great difference in long-term yield expectations.
Gilts have benefited from fears of a supply crunch as it has become clear that the UK is heading towards a substantial budget surplus. The cautious forecasting of this by the Treasury is understandable: Gordon Brown, chancellor of the exchequer, will scarcely want to encourage the increasing calls for more spending on education and health.
So should US Treasuries move above gilts to the top of the yield league table? This has already happened at the 30-year term. Far Eastern investors probably wish to diversify their risks, especially into euro securities, given their high exposure to dollar assets.
The US government is also moving into budget surplus, but there is heavy private sector issuance of dollar bonds as the corporate sector leverages up. The biggest immediate obstacle, however, is the spectacular strength of the US economy, with first-quarter gross domestic product growth revised up last week to 4.8 per cent.
The comfortable slowdown so regularly forecast by securities industry economists is just not happening ( and the recent sharp acceleration of broad money growth has confirmed the durability of the trend ) .
Imported deflation is clearly visible in the weakness of the producer price index, but domestic demand is going through the roof, with a rise of 7.3 per cent, annualised, from January to March. The collapse in net exports is obscuring the scale of the boom.
Perhaps the Asian chaos will still prevent the Federal Reserve from raising interest rates. Indeed, maybe the Fed will remain cowed by the possible consequences of precipitating a Wall Street correction before the mid-term elections. But the domestic case for tightening ( the Fed next meets on June 30 ) is becoming unanswerable, although the threat is being largely ignored by the markets. This is not a comfortable environment for Treasury bond investors, nor for the stock market, with corporate profits being mangled between stagnant prices and rising costs.
Internationally, though, bond market trends remain favourable. The pattern of reduced government bond issuance applies to most developed economies: according to Barclays Capital, net annual G-10 issuance ( excluding Japan ) collapsed by 60 per cent between 1993 and 1997. Even in Japan oversupply is no problem, with savers craving security: the yield on the seven-year benchmark bond No. 182 has fallen to 1.13 per cent.
Japan experienced it first, but now the deflation bandwagon is beginning to roll elsewhere. As Asia goes into recession the output gap is widening further. The commodity price indices are hitting four-year lows. If the Fed feels obliged to stifle US pay and asset price inflation, the impact on aggregate global growth could be severe.
It all looks distinctly promising for creditworthy bonds, although US Treasuries may have local difficulties to overcome in the short run.
Agree that a stock market meltdown or bear market may or may not get gold moving. The key, I think, is whether bonds and the dollar go down hard as well.
The dollar will be the decisive factor in my judgement. But, as Steve Kaplan has pointed out, sharp stock market drops often portend steep declines in the greenback as well.
If stocks, the dollar, and bonds all enter severe bear markets and gold still doesn't move, time to give up the ship. Odds against this scenario probably 100 to one.
seems as if government taking year2000 seriously But can we take the government seriously? yes when politicians want to get reelected
If crash ,history says not good for gold...
strike in Philadelphia also..
what are the odds for Russia going back to communism? if odds are
high, it would seem that more and more goods would be dumped and go
into the hands of the "elite" thugs or if a bailout is certain,
more and more goods would be dumped to go into the "elite" thugs
wonder why the world doesn't set up a IFF..International Food Fund
..just seems the IMF funds the corrupt leaders..
heard that now 102,000,000 Indonesians are living in poverty..half
the population..

(Thu Jun 04 1998 01:29 - ID#386279)
I am going to stop...
...looking at weekly charts of gold miners.
Just too scary!!

Today I got out the daily chart of Resolute Gold. Getting neat its low of Nov. 97. Time to buy again.

Then did a weekly chart. Kinda like giving up smoking or drinking. You can't have even one. Now I'm hooked again. When I see a chart that looks that bad, I do something stupid--like go out and buy more shares. Must be the contrarian in me.

July '95 Resolute= $3.60.
Today I bought a truckload for $1.03.

Lots of gold produced @$200/oz. Lots of reserves. Big nickel project coming on this year. Heap big exploration ground. Muchos blue sky.

Can't miss. Just don't peek at that weekly chart!!

(Thu Jun 04 1998 01:30 - ID#57232)
Logging off for the night! G'Nite downunder!
sharefin: It is always a pleasure to see your posts. I do think the 'powers that be' ( whatever they are ) know that the yen/dollar ratio trend must be stopped. The US dollar is too strong. The key question is how can thay inflate the dollar without the money winding back in the US stock markets, and a repeat of the 1929 era scenario.

I think it is a no-win scenario for the 'fiat' currency crowd. But -- there is one reason why the inflation of the US dollar might commence. Just how is the US goverment going to deal with the mountain of debt that will be coming due very soon if interest rates go up due to a US crisis of some kind? We have virtually no official long term debt anymore, thanks to the wisdom of our current administration. The only answer is to let the dollar drop. Also -- I think AG and RR fear deflation much more than the enemy they understand -- inflation.

Keep your powder dry!

John Disney__A
(Thu Jun 04 1998 01:31 - ID#24135)
Pardon me Sir..
For Mr Gollum
Sir .. I had a telephone message from a gentleman
calling himself Mr Joel Cairo. He had an accent similar
to that of Mr RJ.
He asked me to inquire if you had information as to the
whereabouts of the black bird. Am I to infer that it
is in Casablanca ?

(Thu Jun 04 1998 01:32 - ID#413195)
in sack-o-tomatoes
RJ: Thx for the comments on platinum. It confirms what Infobeat put out tonight ( below ) . I'm still hanging in there, myself. But it ain't pretty: When I saw the plunge today, I cursed so loud I permanently scared the bejesus out of the dog.

EB, are you still buying?

. . . AWAY . . . to let the dog know again that I wasn't yelling at him . . .

. . . anyone want to babysit a dog when football season starts? . . .

=-=-=-=-=-=-InfoBeat article follows=-=-=-=-=-=-=

COMEX and NYMEX precious metals futures ended mixed with platinum
falling to its lowest level in five months following heavy
Japanese selling overnight.

Traders were divided over what triggered the decline, with some
attributing it to Russian sales, others to the launching of a new
catalyst that contains no platinum group metals, and others
writing it off as merely booksquaring.

"It didn't look to me like any new selling," said James Steel,
commodity analyst with Refco Inc. "It looked like long liquidation
and a squaring of books overnight."

Others attributed the decline to Engelhard Corp's announcement of
a contract to supply its new PremAir base metals catalyst to Volvo
Car Corp. The PremAir catalyst eschews platinum group metals, but
does not replace PGM-based catalysts used in catalytic converters.

"Such a catalyst complements PGM-based catalysts," an Engelhard
spokesman said.

All of this occurs against the backdrop of the reemergence of
metal exports from Russia, where PGM shipments have been stymied
by internal bureaucracy since the beginning of the year.

The market took back some of its losses in late trading on fund
short-covering, one floor trader said.


(Thu Jun 04 1998 01:34 - ID#220325)
Jeil -- it looks like you are really onto something
Your postings are beginning to fall into the category of the Kitco greats such as Aph, RJ, DA, Glenn, Oldman etc. Many thanks and keep them coming

(Thu Jun 04 1998 01:36 - ID#284255)
Laverton looks like a bargoon too.
It hit 3.7c the other day.

How much cheaper can these guys get?

(Thu Jun 04 1998 01:37 - ID#57232)
Casablanca - G'Nite all!
John Disney: Does Sam still play the piano? And what did actually happen to that black bird? Methinks we got gollum mixed up with another story line. But -- I guess that happens when all of those timelines get scrambled.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 01:39 - ID#252150)
G7 to bolster JY@Great! another rally to sell.
Good news for ABX & RANGY fans I sold all my shares today, so now they can go up.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 01:39 - ID#252127)
Bill El Zebub

I understand that most of SEA debt is Yen denominated. So for Japan it is better that the Yen stay low.

Your post about the US supporting the yen is making me think that we were behind the SEA debacle.

If so; why should the US taxpayer support the IMF with $18 billion while destroying his own security.

It can't be our balance of payments problem. Martin Armstrong of PEI says is not as important as the flow of international funds as far as ( fiat ) currency strengt is concerned.

These flow of funds plus forced and intentional ( competitive ) devaluations seem to be eating away the US industrial might.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 01:40 - ID#253418)
Where is RJ
We could use a little help getting the PD and PT markets higher - right.!!

Looks a little soft over night - must be the candlestick piecred cloud dropping a little rain.

Gosh it is good to see the prices updating again.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 01:49 - ID#255217)
You've created a monster. The black bird is in the piano.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 02:05 - ID#255217)
Pt is almost within my affordability range, now. Maybe if RJ stays hidden for awhile, it will drop on down to where I can buy some. Everytime RJ is around it starts moving back up. Wish he had that effect on silver.


(Thu Jun 04 1998 02:05 - ID#386279)
G'day finnie.
So many bargoons out there mate. Just hope we bargoon hunters don't end up being the goons. The best $$$ I've made on gold shares was when I felt the worst when I bought!! I have felt extremely sick about the POG for the last few days. This is the Nick/sick indicator and it is invariably correct!!I have been in 'n out of Resolute 5 times in the past six months and have made a bundle. Wish I could say the same about some of the dogs I've bought. Laverton, mate. Produce 80,000 oz year, have bought back their forwards and IF gold will get off its derriere--they are gonna zoom.Talked to the boss the other day. Very positive feelings @LVG. Don't be a goon, buy in gloom. Cheers, Nick ( OK--you want poetry--go to a poetry site ) .

(Thu Jun 04 1998 02:15 - ID#75206)
Bema Gold

Total cost of the mine is $1.3 billion. BGO/AZS put up nothing. Placer must do all the heavy lifting. Placer must contribute $200 million in equity to the partnership on behalf of all the partners ( which is equivalent to paying BGO/AZS another $98 million for the deal [$200 million X 49% = $98 million] plus arrange senior project financing ( read gold loan ) for at least 50% of the capital cost while providing a completion guarantee of up to $1.1 billion in respect thereof, and provide subordinated debt ( read Placer loan to the partnership ) to the extent the senior project financing is less than $1.1 billion.

The economics of the project used a gold price of $375 and a copper price of $1.00 over the life of the mine. Since the mine won't be in production until late 2001, early 2002 if we get gold prices to $340-350 and copper to $.85-.90, forward sales set to begin with mine production would give the project the $375 gold price and $1.00 copper price that the project estimated. Those were the projected prices; however, the project would be economical at lower prices than $375 gold and $1.00 copper. Given the projected prices, the operating cash costs of the Casale mine ( after copper credits ) is US$79.00/oz and total costs, including capital costs, of US$182/oz. This will be a very low cost project.

If we don't see $340-350 gold by 2000, most gold mining production will be gone and most gold mining companies well under water. In my opinion, it would also mean some serious deflation and depression in many parts of the world.

I agree with you that BGO/AZS is a huge leveraged play on the POG right now but as this project advances, these stocks will move up. There is a lot of gold on the Aldebaran property. The figures quoted in yesterday's press release were from MRDI's pre-feasiblity study, which is extremely conservative. The last resource calculation MRDI did on Casale was on May 15, 1997 and calculated a total resource of 27.4 million ozs of gold and 7.6 billion lbs of copper at a cutoff grade of .4 g/t. Bema has told me they believe Casale could be mined down to a cutoff grade of .3 g/t. The MRDI study used the highest cutoff grade of .6 g/t to make the resource as conservative as possible while still being economical. With the drilling Bema and Placer have done since May, 1997 any updated resource calculation would show the Aldebaran property holds well over 30 million ozs of gold and over 9 billion lbs of copper. The question is... how can a mine complex be structured on the property to extract most of it? The 19.5 million ozs per the pre-feasibility study is very conservative. I can't see Placer/BGO/AZS walking away from 10 million ozs of gold and several billion lbs of copper.

The biggest negative for the project is that the high grade breccia zone ( which was expanded in these latest results ) can't be mined first to give the project a quick recovery of capital costs. It must be mined as the mountain is stripped away. Due to the slope of the property, the mountain can be stripped away ( maximum strip ratio of 2.6:1 ) and no underground mining is necessary. I think BGO/AZS holders will be well rewarded over the long haul.

Keep up the great TA work. I always read your market comments.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 02:17 - ID#65118)
Nick, could you post some of those...
Aussie stock symbols. I would like to check them out! Thanks in advance!

(Thu Jun 04 1998 02:18 - ID#93199)
Fidelity Select Gold Chart
Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious Metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )

Fidelity Select Energy & Energy Service Chart

Fidelity Select Computers, Electronics & Software Chart

(Thu Jun 04 1998 02:24 - ID#253418)
Nick - know what yu mean...
about feeling sick. The bargins may get to be bigger bargins is my only fear, like all bottom fishers. Picked up a little HGMCY today. Volumn was up on the 1/2 point rise in the stock -hope that bodes well. Won't stay around very long though if there is not some encouraging nes out of the Euro meeting re gold backing. This looks like the water shed even to me. No good fundlemental news at this event and I think gold has had it till fall. I am increasing of the opinion that it doesn't make sense to hold thises stocks until after the US market breaks and the Dollar index has started to come off. It is looking a little toppy, the CRB looks like it is trying to put in a bottom of some type. Oil was reported to be higher on production cutback talks. The XAU look horrible. I suspect what will happen is that we'll get the slightest bit of bullishness out of the ERUO meetings and then every seller in the world will come in and hit the higher prices and we'll go down for the count around $260 somewhere with silver lanquishing at $4 and PT at $300 and PD at 175.

My problem is that I am fundlementally suckered into to these investments. If I didn't know what they would I'd be short. Seventeen years of this bear - off and on- missing the really good moves like the PD move is getting old. I'm of the mind to check out and look in only at the weekly and monthly charts. I'd do that but for the fact the situation looks to me as if on day things could turn and really kick into high gear. I want to be buying that charge out the gate. That's probably the flaw in my strategy. For now keeping lightly long, though I probably should be short, watching for the out come of this Euro meeting to be the point where I sell out and close down for a while. I think the deflationary presures are just too great. Eventually the weak hancs will sell to the strong and we'll be ready for a strong rally but unless we turn confincingly here I don't think the time is right.

If something really positive was going to come of the EURO meeting I think it would be reflected in short covering. Perhaps saw some of that today in HGMCY.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 02:51 - ID#340344)
Last February, I attended a Rio Grande trade show in
Tucson, AZ. If you have any questions at all about
jewelry-making, inquire with them about when and where
they will set up a trade show, and you can see an
incredible amount of equipment, demonstrated for you,
and you can talk with each of the 50-75 experts
representing Rio Grande. I saw some very nice small
objects made of silver, from silver clay. A lot of
shrinkage, but the design seemed to stay intact. I don't
think they sell metals. Just the equipment.

Steve, the jeweler: In an economic slowdown if your
business declines, it is likely that your profit margins
will also decline, as people in your business become more
competitive, to try to stay in business. Several alternatives
come to mind: 1 ) Do nothing different, and hope that
business gets better; 2 ) don't laugh at this one: Quit the
business. If things seem to be getting real bad, why prolong
the agony? This worked for me, in my previous industry, and
now I have people asking how I knew about the coming bad
times in advance. 3 ) Keep focussing on your strongest
points, your niche, and yes, keep learning. 4 ) Convert to
part-time business, and take on other work. ( Scale down )
5 ) Keep doing your jewelry and take on one or more new
lines of merchandise. I think the average coin dealer who
has been in business at least 10 years, is there because of
this flexibility. Coin dealers can give you dozens of ideas
about this. Far from being stodgy. Very creative.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 02:54 - ID#93199)
Jeil Chart Info
Jiel... Found your charts interesting. Do you have any
top level functional math info you would care to share?

(Thu Jun 04 1998 03:01 - ID#153102)
@ A Thought
All of the key people in gold are outside of the USA. They are in the Mid-East, Europe, and Hong Kong-China. They are the actors. Elsewhere are the anticipators and reactors.

Speaking of aniticipating or pre-empting, the suit filed against the German Banks seems to fall into that category. The class action suit was reported to have 11,000 claimants. If you budget just $20 to find and affiliate each claimant to the suit, that's $220,000. At $100 it's $1,100,000. Where did the money come from ? And why did it take all these years for the survivors to find an attorney ? I sense the background presence of the USG here somewhere. The coverage of the suit has certainly put dirty gold on the front page again. If something were not being cooked up by the actors, there would be no need for pre-emption, I think.

It seems to me a significant part of the actors have interests in the African goldfields. If this is correct, the volume and movement of African shares will be a leading indicator. The insiders always reach for the first dollar of profit.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 03:42 - ID#386279)
G'day Open-Loop
Well, Since you asked:

Some Aussie shares high on my list.

Resolute ( RSG ) --Au and Ni
Normandy ( NDY ) --biggest in Oz ( 3rd/4th in world )
Centaur ( CTR ) --Au

Littlies ( soon to be biggies ) :
Anvil ( AVL ) --richest cu/Au/Ag deposit in the world--in Congo--if stable then super big profits
Laverton ( LVG ) --Au mine in Sumatra--shares way oversold due to Indonesian problems. They are out in the boonies, away from the troubles--talked to manager--excellent prospects
Legend ( LEG ) and East Coast Minerals ( ECM ) --see Haggis' numerous posts on Munni Munni--rich little Ag deposit.Got a sneaky feeling there is heaps more there than meets the eye.
Mogul ( MGL ) 20 000 000 oz Ag deposit in Mexico. Not yet discovered by the market. Going for a song.
Oxiana ( OXR ) Copper mine in Cyprus plus extremely promising Au/Ag deposits in Phillipines. Big fund in for $5m for exploration.
Tanganyika Gold ( TGO ) --huge African holdings. Anglogold bought in at .30. Now selling for .14. I think Anglogold knows what they're doing.
Takoradi ( TKG ) --huge ground in Africa. 20 bagger when market wakes up.

Now of course I am totally unbiased. It is merely a coincidence that I own shares in most of these companies. Cheers, N.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 03:53 - ID#284255)
Aussie Mining Shares
These few pages list most of the Aussie gold miners.
They are from a database that I still run but haven't updated for a while.
The prices are yesterdays but some of the figures ( mkt caps ) are out of date as issued share numbers have changed.
Production figures are a year old.
And some of the companies have changed focus.

The lists will be of help in picking cheap shares out.

LVG has got some amazing tenements surrounding their mine.
Lots of potential hidden in the ground.

Should be an interesting few days coming up.
The swing chart is saying do or die here.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 04:05 - ID#284255)
You've certainly done your homework there.
Can't argue about one of those picks.

Email chatter
I've been patiently sitting in the weeds, just picking away at favourites, but this whole ugly mess is now picking up downside momentum, and the fundamentals have become so completely ugly that even CNBC can't ignore them. ( g )
Agree, but "can't dance with all the girls", and always feel a bit vulnerable outside my own ( tech ) territory. The coming debacle is so close, I can smell its bad breath. It's been a long wait.
I still think the "buy-the-dippers" could slow the descent and the Japanese mad money continues to pour in but the warnings season is already underway, and is shaping up every bit as nastily as we bears expected,....even with the accounting nonsense. In the end, I suspect that the dam will burst when the retail crowd finally recognizes that the second half rebound is pure fabrication.
Gentlemen, start your engines. Actually, there have been a ton of preannouncements already and many times that to come. This quarter is going to suck big time, and not just for the tech stocks. This new "Market Era" is going to give me a 40 percent annual return on my money from here to eternity. Everybody keeps telling me it's so.

This country has indeed gone crazy over money.
Why not, they have figured out a way to take it with them!!

(Thu Jun 04 1998 04:13 - ID#33024)
Technical Analysis: GOLD, DJIA, CAC40 (update)

(Thu Jun 04 1998 04:31 - ID#153102)
@Constitutional Gold in Montana
Every American ought to learn what is at stake in Montana and I hope to present the matter clearly and concisely. But first some background.

"The Constitution was ordained and established by the people
of the United States for themselves, for their own government of
the individual states. Each state established a constitution for
itself, and, in the constitution, provided such limitations and
restrictions on the powers of its particular government as its
judgment dictated. The people of the United States framed such a
government for the United States as they supposed best adapted to
their situation and best calculated to promote their interests.
The powers they conferred on this government were to be exercised
by itself; and the limitations on power, if expressed in general
terms, are naturally, and, we think, necessarily applicable to
the government created by the instrument. They are limitations
of power granted in the instrument itself; not of distinct gov-
ernments, framed by different persons and for different
purposes." Barron v. Baltimore, ( 1833 ) 7 Pet ( U.S. ) 247. Supreme Court of the United States

"Here we see the people acting as sovereigns of the whole
country; and in the language of sovereignty, established a con-
stitution by which it was their will that the state governments
should be bound, and to which the state constitutions should be
made to conform. Every state constitution is a compact made by
and between the citizens of a state to govern themselves in a
certain manner; and the Constitution for the United States of
America is likewise a compact made by the people of the United
States to govern themselves as to general objects, in a certain
manner." Chisholm v Georgia, ( 1793 ) 2 Dall. U.S. 471. Supreme Court of the United States

The term "establish", as used in the Preamble, means to fix


1. To set and fix firmly or unalterably; to settle permanently.

I will establish my covenant with him for an everlasting cove-
nant, Gen. XVII

2. To found permanently; to erect and fix or settle; as, to
establish a colony or empire.

3. To enact or decree by Authority and for permanence...

4. To settle or fix; to confirm...

5. To make firm; to confirm; to ratify what has been previously
set or made.

Do we then make void the law through faith? God forbid: yea, we
establish the law. ROM III"

An American Dictionary of the English Language, Noah Webster
( 1828 ) .

"ESTABLISH. This word occurs frequently in the Constitution of
the United States, and it is there used in different meanings:
( 1 ) to settle firmly, to fix unalterably; as to establish jus-
tice, which is the avowed object of the Constitution.

To settle or fix firmly; place on a permanent footing; found;
create; put beyond doubt or dispute; prove; convince... " Black's
Law Dic., supra, at 642.

Thus, if the Union spoken of exists by the power of the
people, then also the founding law upon which that Union was
predicated in the first place is unchangeable except by their
authority and so also the natural de jure citizenship recognized
thereby, which said status preceded the constitutions of both the
Constitution for the United States of America and the several
States therein imbued with that "original right" clearly deter-
mined to be the paramount authority by the court in Marbury v.
Madison 5 U.S. ( 1 Cr ) 137, supra at 176-78 ( 1803 ) . Supreme Court of the United States


"The Constitution of the United States was ordained
and established, not by the States in their sovereign capacities,
but emphatically, as the preamble of the Constitution declares,
by the people of the United States." Hunter v. Martin, 1 Wheat
305, 324 ( 1814 ) . Supreme Court of the United States

The original Constitution creating the Government of the
Union, then, is emphatically, and truly, a law of "the people"
and can be altered or dissolved only by "the people" or "their
posterity," under Article 5, Constitution for the United States
of America.

"In the next place, the state governments are, by the very
theory of the constitution, essential constituents parts of the
general government. They can exist without the latter, but the
latter cannot exist without them. Without the intervention of
the state legislatures, the president of the United States cannot
be elected at all; and the senate is exclusively and absolutely
under the choice of the state legislatures. The representatives
are chosen by the people of the states. Every where the state
sovereignties are represented; and the national sovereignty, as
such, has no representation. How is it possible, under such
circumstances, that the national government can be dangerous to
the liberties of the people, unless the states, and the people of
the states, conspire together for their overthrow? If there
should be such a conspiracy, is not this more justly to be deemed
an act of the states through their own agents, and by their own
choice, rather than a corrupt usurpation by the general govern-
ment?" Story's Commentaries on the Constitution of the United
States, ( 1833 ) , sec. 510, Vol. 1, p. 488.

From above, "the founding law upon which that Union was predicated in the first place is unchangeable except by their authority".

The founding law, the venue established by the people is unchangebale except by their authority. Now, in the venue fixed permanently by the people at the founding, gold and silver coin are the tender. And the rule of decision of facts tried by jury is according to the common law. But, now we have fiat paper for tender. And the rule of decision is according to complex combined rules of various jurisdictions of law, equity, admiralty, and international law or the law of nations. None of this was done by the authority of the people or according to Article V. Now, we shall have the founding law restored or we are adrift with government unleashed to change itself as it pleases, take such additional powers as it pleases, and tyrannize as it pleases. And it is this condition of things to which the Freeman would draw the attention of the nation. Why has it fallen to farmers to practice liberty law and suffer incarceration and mistreatment by jailors ?

Why has not the so-called profession of lawyers and attorneys defended the Constitution and brought this state of affairs to the attention of the people ? Is it because they are keen merely to make a fee and to protect their fraternity of titles of nobility and honor ( esquire and Your Honor ) and too intent on prospering at its expense to preserve the Republic or defend the Constitution ? Why have the attorneys allowed the government to capture the grand jury and stood silent and not gone among the people to arouse them ? The grand jury is the instrument of the people to investigate the operations of government and to hand down indictments for crimes done by government officers. Why is the grand jury now presented just what prosecutors want to bring before it. Why isn't the grand jury taking testimony and summoning witnesses without restraint ny judges ? Isn't the tail wagging the dog ?

Now, the Freeman are being tried out of their presence and being represented by attorneys appointed by the judge and of whom they do not approve. What kind of a trial is that ? What kind of a court is it that would condone such a trial ? If the government can forbid you to speak in your own defense at trial, deny you your right to counsel of your own choice, and appoint an attorney to speak for you, an attorney who is beholden to the court for his livelihood and preferment, can even innocent babes not be convicted easily ? These are political trials in a Star Chamber and not one whit better than the Stalin show trials or the travesties presided over by German judges in Nuremburg in the worst days of national socialism. Why are the attorneys participating in this kangaroo court ? Why are they not protesting to the media loudly and every day ?

The issue is bondage. The stakes are freedom.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 04:36 - ID#340155)
@sharefin - good data on gold

I'm a novice when it comes to precious metals. Anyone have information or a URL for a chart that shows the historical gold/silver ratio. We're about 56:1 now, and I'd like to be able to put that ratio in perspective.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 04:46 - ID#284255)
Maverick - gold/silver ratio

Also this chart is good.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 04:52 - ID#340155)
appreciated, sharefin.

The chart cleared up some misconceptions - I thought 56:1 Au/Ag was high, not so - at least in the last 7 years.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 06:17 - ID#26793)
London morning gold fix is $292.05

(Thu Jun 04 1998 06:21 - ID#373284)
The best President Chinese money can BUY - bbl

(Thu Jun 04 1998 06:22 - ID#26793)
Anglogold earnings news.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 06:31 - ID#26793)
Silver analysts comment on the merits of the Buffett move into silver bullion.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 06:38 - ID#287186)
Mozel - I do not disagree with your case against the gov't.
Distrust in gov't, conspiracy theories, etc are all valid but the freemen took advantage of their anti-gov't cover to screw their neighbors. Such "Patriots for Profit" groups take advantage of their countrymen's fear to also make a profit - as in selling newsletters about black helicopters and economic collapse while they "just happen to sell" survivalist supplies, gold and books on the subject. That is the best of the group. The worst are no better than third world revolutionaries who, if they succeed as juntas, turn around and oppress their "own" people - often more badly than the oppressors they overthrew.

Again I refer you to HARVEST OF RAGE by Joel Dyer {reviewed Sat May 09 1998 13:44} which documents the atrocities by the USG and its corporate partners/campaign contributors as well as the predatory advantages taken by anti-gov't groups preying on people's fear.

P.S. They are called Freemen not freeman. They have discredited and blackened both terms to the point where people now think they mean gun-toting, neighbor-screwing radicals rather than Jeffersonian revolutionaries.

I subscribe to a 50-year old magazine called THE FREEMAN - Ideas on Liberty published by The Foundation For Economic Education, Inc.

Ever since the freemen went on their campaign against gov't and neighbor no issue mailed to me has arrived - except in a plain manila envelope. Somewhere in the USPS censorship is working. My issues of FREEMAN are being "rerouted" - likely to the trash can. In the censor's eyes I must be the same kind of crazy, anti-gov't, conspiracy mongering subversive revolutionary that characterizes the freemen. Again I emphasize that if the freemen only picked on the gov't I could agree with them. But because they used the "freeman" philosophy to screw their neighbors - I want them tried by a jury of honest militia members who are trying to maintain credibility with their friends and neighbors while standing guard or fighting against government tyranny.

No revolution can succeed without the support of enough countrymen to lend assistance, cover, men and military materiel. Groups like the freemen are destroying OUR capability of mustering that support.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 06:48 - ID#289357)
Maverick & sharefin @ Gold/Silver Ratio

Here is annual data on the Gold/Silver ratio going back forever:

Also on the same site is a lot of other interesting long-term historical information on various markets:

Bully Beef
(Thu Jun 04 1998 07:04 - ID#259282)
Mozel... Our media here in Canada says that the Freemen are White supremists.
Is this wrong? How many Afro American families are holed up in Montana?I find conspiracy theories great too but I really don't think you ought to push those guys on this forum.But ... then I'm not supposed to be a censor and people give me heck when I do. Your call.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 07:22 - ID#341189)
My ratio figures are somewhat different than those you posted last night. 29.96, .250 and 56.74. I'm using Dow 8804.3, AU 292.9, XAU 73.36, S 5.20.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 07:29 - ID#248180)
ABN AMRO Bank - "EURO's share of Global Trade Payments to = 40 - 45%
Those US$ will be coming home soon. Tie a "Yellow Ribbon Round the Old Oak Tree".

Kazakhs See Bank Savings from Euro Launch

ALMATY -- ( Reuters ) Considerable savings are expected for Kazakhstan's nascent banking sector with the launch of the single European currency euro from the start of next year, a senior central banker said on Tuesday.

"The figures show the share of Kazakhstan's economy held by countries within the future monetary union, and they show how important the euro will be for its financial institutions," said Medet Sarbayev, deputy head of the monetary operations department at the central bank.

"For firms and banks the advantages from the introduction of the euro will be appreciable in terms of lower settlement and conversion costs, the cost of insuring against currency risk and attracting capital on international financial markets," he told journalists and bankers in Kazakhstan's financial capital.

Sarbayev said nearly 18 percent of total Kazakh exports went to European Union countries and 17 percent of imports came from the region.

The central bank also estimated that government and government-backed external debt to the EU countries at the end of last year was 18 percent of the country's total.

But the euro would not remove currency risk altogether, Sarbayev said, adding that it was up to commercial banks to raise their level of sophistication to reduce, or hedge, currency risk.

"For commercial banks it is important to meet the requirements of corporate customers and use different hedging instruments to minimize that risk," he said.

For the central bank, the introduction of the euro could mean a change in the currency composition of its reserves, with European currencies accounting for 10-15 percent of the total $1.52 billion.

Peter Sura, senior vice president of Dutch ABN AMRO Bank, said that the euro's share of global trade and payment traffic could eventually reach 40-45 percent. The same level applied for Kazakhstan, he added.

"Right now many commodities are only traded in U.S. dollars. We see that changing - even oil and gas will trade in euros in the future," he said.

Kazakhstan is a resource-rich republic bordering the Caspian Sea. It is pinning its economic hopes largely on exploiting huge oil and gas deposits with the help of billions of dollars -- or euros -- of foreign investment.

Sura also said that euro-denominated bonds would represent a viable alternative to dollar-denominated issues in future.

Kazakhstan has already said it plans to issue $300-500 million worth of bonds in June or July, although doubts arose recently over whether it would stick to plans for issuing euro-denominated paper.

"The government is going to issue a euro-denominated bond," Sarbayev said. (  ( c ) 1998 Reuters )

(Thu Jun 04 1998 07:31 - ID#43185)
That was a most interesting post concerning Warren Buffet and the
silver market. It points up how much different Mr. Buffets thinking
is from the average trader. These guys make their money by active
trading on a day to day basis and seem to feel that everyone who is
anyone must do so in the same way. They are mostly chartists and
technicians and some speculative manipulators as I would call them.

Mr. Buffet is a fundamentalist. He goes to great lengths to thouroughly
study a situation before he goes into it and is content to wait as
long as it takes for the fundamentals to either bear him out or for
the fundamentals upon which hsi position is based to change. This
approach has served him in good stead.

His plan in silver is very simple. To wit:
1 ) silver demand has and will exceed production over the years.
2 ) there is only a finite stockpile of silver available
3 ) the difference between supply and demand gives the depletion rate
4 ) dividing estimated stockpile size by depletion rate gives the
amount of time until the stockplie runs out

He has spent some 20 or 30 years gathering data and refining his
estimates so I presume they are probably pretty good.

If one is shrewd as he suspect he is, one takes a position early
enough that the price has not yet reacted to the results of the
inevitable conclusion if the anaysis is correct, but not so soon
as to tie up funds which might be more productively put to use
elsewhere in the meanwhile. One then ignores the day to day
scheming, hype, rumor mongering, and manipulations of the locals
until the day of reckoning. As one of the analysts in that article

``The fundamentals indicate that the price could move much higher,'' said Edward Kempf, senior research analyst with New York consulting firm CPM Group.

``The reason we haven't seen it is because this market has been pounded by technical traders.''

And so it goes....

(Thu Jun 04 1998 07:35 - ID#26793)
Hi Carl:
I used the Steve Kaplan Report and added $2.10 to the previous day. Promey e.mailed me a price 80c lower after I posted. My morning newspaper is showing $292.40 and $5.16 with the Dow at 8803.80.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 07:39 - ID#248180)
@That Bloody Asian "GLITCH"- just gettin down right MESSY

Malaysian leader warns of guerrilla war against globalisation
by Kazuhiro Shimamura

TOKYO, June 4 ( AFP ) - Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad warned
here Thursday of a "kind of guerrilla war" against foreign firms which
dominate deregulated Asian economies.

As outsiders take control of national corporations, people in Asia will
show their feelings in many ways, Mahathir told a meeting here, the
International Conference on the Future of Asia.

"Sooner or later they will think of regaining control over their
economies," he warned.

"They will regard this as a new war of liberation," the premier said,
adding that "even if they want to avoid violence, violence must come as
the new capitalists disregard the signs."

"There will be no war of independence, of course. But there will be a
kind of guerrilla war which will not be good for anyone."

Mahathir conceded the scenario may not play out as he forecast. "Maybe
this will not be the future of Asia. Maybe Asia will extricate itself
from the present situation intact," the premier said.

But "new capitalists" would be loath to miss the chance to "dominate
the world and make lots of money in the process," he forecast, and only
if their own countries restrained them would the world be peaceful and

Mahathir said capitalists had been let loose on the world by the defeat
of communism and the International Monetary Fund had opened the door
for them by forcing deregulation on Asian countries hit by the
financial crisis.

Instead of the rich exploiting the poor in the old capitalist world,
today "it is the exploitation of poor countries worldwide which
promises unlimited gains," he said.

"Hence the push for deregulation and globalisation."

New capitalists wanted to make billions of dollars overnight, Mahathir
told the conference, and currency trading -- a bugbear of the Malaysian
leader -- gave them the opportunity.

"With trillions at their disposal they have become a force that no
government of developing countries can go against. Control of the media
enables them to shape public opinion, censor criticism and generally
promote the legitimacy and wholesomeness of their concept of the new
world order."

There was no future for Asia that was "distinctly Asian," he said.

"Asian countries will prosper again but not as Asian countries. Their
economies would be dominated and run by the huge foreign corporations,
practically all owned and managed by non-Asians."

Answering questions from the audience, Mahathir said Indonesia, whose
president Suharto stepped down May 21 in favour of B.J. Habibie after
riots and demonstrations, was "very much in need of funds."

IMF aid to the country was tied down with too many conditions, he

"The mere change of the government does not mean that anything can
improve if other things that should accompany it are not there," he
added. "We have to take the new government on trust."

On nuclear tests, Mahathir said Malaysia's stance was clear. "We are
against any nuclear weapons. Let's apply sanctions to all countries
with nuclear weapons."


(Thu Jun 04 1998 07:40 - ID#26793)
Silver is saying all the right things. It took me only 28 years to figure it out. I must be a faster thinker than Mr. Buffett.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 07:43 - ID#43185)
The black bird
There seems to be some interest in the whereabouts of some falcon.
At the outset let me assure all of those with an overabiding interst,
especially those that posses weapons or especially strong and vigorus
that I have no factual knowledge of where it might be. However I have
heard rumors that it may be in Timbuktu or perhaps Xanadu. Yes,
Xanadu, I am sure it was Xanadu. It has been disguised as a, as a goose.
Yes, that's it, a goose a wild goose in fact. Go check it out. Take your
time. Don't hurry back.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 07:51 - ID#243166)
Dow Chart
2 big left shoulders + 1 head + 1 right shoulder = ONE BIG %@$#&$%, MEAN, HUNGRY B E A R

(Thu Jun 04 1998 07:53 - ID#43185)
It really matters not, except perhaps to a pocket book here and there, if your charts are nil or not, but rather the results of this quest into
knowledge that your work represents. If they work it gives useful insight
and if they don't work it also provides useful insight.

They danger is if they work pretty good. Because then one will come to use them to place higher and higher stakes until some day due to one
fluke or another they fail...

(Thu Jun 04 1998 07:53 - ID#413109)
Good News on the y2k bug
This was just sent to me, and now I'll sleep better at night.

*** UAE says solves its millennium bug problem
The United Arab Emirates ( UAE ) said it had succeeded in solving the
millennium bug problem at all state offices which it had feared would
disrupt older computer programs by the end of the century. "The ( UAE )
cabinet had been informed of the success which was achieved on May
18," Minister of Finance and Industry Mohammad Khalfan bin Kharbash
said in remarks carried by local newspapers Wednesday. Kharbash said
the solution would solve the millennium bug for all UAE ministries
and federal establishments. He gave no further details. ( Reuters )
BTW I strongly suggest all those interested in gold, and silver
become "DIPSTERS". Buy on any dips, as you're buying inexpensive goods
at very lovely prices. You don't need to pick a bottom just buy on the
dips, and more as it goes up and backs & fills. It's easy and lots of
fun-- and profitable in the long run.
Good advice? Thank me later.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 07:55 - ID#20748)
China sells arms
to Pakistan, Iran and Syria.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 08:01 - ID#43185)
Thank you, RJ. Dogma is the enemy and leads only to maya.
Truth is what is.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 08:02 - ID#248180)
"How Strong the EURO Might Be" They are talking with AG but not Telling us anything yet.
Russia, Euro Top Bankers Agenda

VIENNA -- ( Reuters ) Top international central and commercial bankers discussed the financial crises in Russia and Asia on Wednesday as well as the U.S. economy and the potential strength of the euro.

U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan and German Bundesbank Governor Hans Tietmeyer were among participants at a final session of closed-door informal discussions of the annual International Monetary Conference.

Details of their deliberations were not made public but Jan Kalff, chairman of Dutch commercial bank ABN AMRO, said Greenspan had made broad-brush comments on the U.S. economy without being specific.

"He was giving a view of what the present economic situation is in the U.S. economy, the future outlook for inflation and that sort of thing. He did that in a very eloquent way," Kalff told reporters.

Greenspan will testify on monetary policy and the outlook for the U.S. economy before the Joint Economic Committee of Congress on June 10.

Asked if there had been differences between central banks and commercial banks on interest rates in Europe, Tietmeyer replied: "There was a great degree of consensus. That is the only thing I can say."

Kalff said the bankers discussed what the functions of national central banks would be under the European Central Bank and how strong the euro, the joint European currency, might be.

A British commercial banker said the meeting touched on the issue of which central bank governor would speak for the ECB in international bodies.

Austrian Central Bank President Klaus Liebscher said the talks had not been intended to produce concrete results.

"A lot of topics were discussed but they will only be brought up in the ECB once we are there," he said.

The ECB kicked off its operations on Tuesday as members of the bank's board met to prepare for the first full council meeting, expected to be called on June 9.

Other topics included the crises in Russia and some Asian economies and what risks they posed for other parts of the world as well as problems in the Japanese banking sector.

Japanese bankers put a brave face on their economic crisis at the conference, saying financial markets underestimated Japan's economic strength.

Their comparative optimism contrasted with the views of top Western bankers, who expressed concern about the impact of the yen's slide and the limping Japanese economy on the recovery of Asia's battered economies.

On Russia, bankers said on Tuesday that world markets had over-reacted to its financial problems, which they described as short-term rather than deeply rooted like those of Asian economies.

Commercial bank chief executives said they would be willing to help Russia overcome its troubles, but governments and international institutions had to take the lead. (  ( c ) 1998 Reuters )

(Thu Jun 04 1998 08:03 - ID#413109)
have a look-see
NIKKEI, most have been quite down on this baby, but have a look at
these charts and see if you don't see these levels as a good buying
opportunity, with a stop of 10-15% below.

If, I say "IF" I'm correct and the move is up, and not down, then
it should tell all the pessimists to rethink the Asia situation, and
especially Japan, with all of the negatives.
Isn't the old adage sell the good news and buy the bad???

(Thu Jun 04 1998 08:08 - ID#43185)
Durn. I guess the source of the mysterious canadian diamonds is still a

That reminds me of a story, presumably true, about some oldtimer that had
pulled a greasy-shiny looking rock out of his pocket and was looking at
it. A bystander asked him where he had found the rough diamond. Turns out
he didn't know what it was. He had just picked it up somewhere years ago
because he liked the way it looked and carried it around ever since.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 08:09 - ID#187218)
stuff on ... First Union Bank - new glossy material...
Finally getting a chance to go through yesterday's stack of mail and found a advertisement from in which they display some rare coins dating from several hundred years to current commemoratives. Within the actual text there is NO MENTION of PMs - they discuss easy access to ATMs, combining brokerage and banking services, savings accounts, etc.

Another interesting point is that they have on the bottom: "NOT FDIC-INSURED", "NOT BANK GUARANTEED", and "MAY LOSE VALUE" --- in BOLD and somewhat large lettering.

Funny how they use coins to bring home their point on the cover BUT fail to utilize them within their 'CAP Account'...


(Thu Jun 04 1998 08:14 - ID#43185)
This should be a surprise?

(Thu Jun 04 1998 08:14 - ID#45173)
The widely held belief is that a NIKKEI below 15000 is the end of the world in Japan. If you believe that, then at around 15,400, it's hanging at the precipice. If you believe that Japan will successfully prevent this from happening, then a near-term recovery is possible and there is a buying opportunity there. On the other hand, if you think the REALLY bad news hasn't gotten out yet, then you'd be buying too soon.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 08:22 - ID#187218)

What is the rationale behing the statement: "How many Afro American families are holed up in Montana?"

This is denouncing the methods of an entire group based on the lack of participation of another group without basis in a common purpose. The Freemen ( I am no expert on their philosophy ) from what I remember had for years been tax protestors. The government utilized complaints from the 'locals' to move against the Freemen. I don't know of atrocities that have been committed by the Freemen.

Perhaps some else can shed some light here.

BTW Squirrel: I do subscribe - great reading.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 08:31 - ID#43185)
No doubt. This has served to your disadvantage though in that since
he was a slower thinker he has had more time to build up his stake
in the meantime. Else we would all be watching to see what Donald
was going to next instead of Warren.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 08:43 - ID#43185)
Ohaio gozaimasu, Reify san.

I too, have the distinct feeling Japan may have turned a corner of
some kind and things are not going to get as bad as many have feared.
If this is true, the NIKKEI is on the bottom, and like most bottoms
will be choppy. There is no hurry to get in while we wait and see
that this is not just a false bottom trap and that no worse news from
the land of the rising sun is about to plunge it even deeper. I really
feel though, that we have seen the worst.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 08:45 - ID#213265)
@the scene
Mozel -- Re: Your 04:31 -- AMEN!!!

(Thu Jun 04 1998 08:53 - ID#43185)
Tie a yellow ribbon indeed. That was a most important item you posted and
points up how bullish the EURO is for gold, regardless of how much
bullion the central banks decide to hold. The EURO will give, at least
until proven otherwise, a viable alternative to the dollar and bring
those bucks marching home.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 09:00 - ID#208393)
Bank of England Raises Interest Rate

Stock market surprised and reacts negatively.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 09:00 - ID#242325)
The IMF in Indonesia. Preparing thr ground for revolutionary change?

IMF dictates terms to Indonesia

By Peter Symonds
4 June 1998

The International Monetary Fund's ( IMF ) Asia Pacific Director Hubert Neiss has just completed a visit to Jakarta for talks with
the Indonesian regime and opposition figures such as Islamic leader Amien Rais over the country's ongoing economic, political
and social crisis.

Neiss offered guarded praise for the new Habibie cabinet, hinting that some deadlines laid down in the IMF's detailed
restructuring plan may be modified to prevent a repeat of last month's widespread riots. According to the IMF's timetable, state
subsidies on sugar, wheat flour, corn, soybean meal and fishmeal are due to be removed on October 1.

However, the main purpose of Neiss' visit was to seek assurances from both Habibie and his opponents that the central thrust
of the IMF plan would be implemented, regardless of the social consequences. Only on this basis will the IMF reverse last
month's decision to suspend payments from its $US43 billion rescue package.

Three successive IMF plans have laid out comprehensive measures for opening Indonesia up to foreign investors and ending
the monopolies and economic privileges enjoyed by Suharto, his family and business cronies. The IMF measures will
accelerate the collapse of large sections of banking and industry and lead to further social misery.

Neiss blandly told a press conference last weekend that he had "no reason to dispute" various forecasts that the Indonesian
economy would contract by 10 percent or more this year. Other forecasts range up to 20 percent. Even the chief economic
minister, Ginandjar Kartasasmita, estimates that significant growth will not resume for at least three years.

The last IMF plan agreed in early April was based on the rupiah recovering to 5,000 to the US dollar. The present exchange
rate is more than double that figure, at around 11,000, and even this has only been achieved by raising interest rates to a
crippling 60 percent.

Business is grinding to a halt. Neither government, the banking system nor big business can afford to service outstanding
dollar-denominated loans. Foreign private debt is calculated to be as high as $US70 billion. An estimated $US80 billion in
capital has left the country in recent months, further compounding the crisis confronting the banking system.

The country's largest private bank, Bank Central Asia ( BCA ) was placed under central bank administration after a sustained
run on deposits last week. The BCA is controlled by the Salim Group ( headed by one of Suharto's closest associates, Liem
Sioe Liong ) and two of Suharto's children.

This week, Indonesia's third largest airline, Sempati, also part-owned by Suharto family members and business associates,
ceased to operate, unable to meet its foreign debt. From a peak of 25 leased aircraft and 3,500 staff in 1996, the airline was
down to five planes and only 700 staff.

The rupiah's plunge has also affected Indonesia's ability to import rice needed to make up shortfalls caused by widespread
drought. Last week Thai exporters diverted nearly 200,000 tonnes of rice because the Habibie government could not organise a
letter of credit to pay for it.

Since the riots last month, food prices have risen by a further 20 percent. According to the Central Bureau of Statistics,
inflation will hit 80 percent this year and could go beyond 100 percent if there is further social unrest.

Manpower Minister Fahmi Idris announced on Tuesday that unemployment was likely to reach 15.4 million or 17.1 percent of
the 90 million-strong workforce by the end of the year -- a six-fold increase on the level of 2.5 million prior to last year's
economic collapse.

By other accounts, half the workforce is expected to be either unemployed or underemployed by next January, placing an
estimated 55 million, or over a quarter of the population, below the official poverty line.

Even before the current economic crisis, poverty claimed many victims. Malnutrition affected 8.5 million children in Indonesia,
causing 140,000 deaths a year. About 22,000 women died each year giving birth -- one every 20 minutes. The latest figures
put the number of child labourers at 1.3 million; 300,000 of them in hazardous situations.

But the raw statistics can only give the bare outlines of the impact on the lives of ordinary working people, many of whom
have been flung out of work or have had their limited incomes eaten away by price rises. The sick and injured are unable to
afford even basic medicines and treatments, which have skyrocketted in price since the beginning of the year.

Yet the appalling social crisis facing millions is rarely touched on in the international mass media. An Associated Press report
two weeks ago gave a glimpse of the conditions facing residents in Penjaringan, near Jakarta's old port.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 09:06 - ID#335190)
First Nation's People Finance Memorial @ Entitled to piece of rock on continent
Crazy Horse monument dedicated

CRAZY HORSE, S.D. ( AP ) -- Work on the Crazy Horse Memorial began June 3, 1948. Fifty years later, it still may be 50 years from completion.

The finished work will depict Crazy Horse astride his horse, pointing to his sacred Black Hills. The sculpture will be 172 metres high and 195 metres long -- taller than the Washington Monument and almost twice the size of the Statue of Liberty. It's so big all four presidents from nearby Mount Rushmore could fit inside Crazy Horse's head.

The project has taken longer than expected. Sculptor Korczak Ziolkowski initially thought he could do it in 30 years. He worked for 35 years, mostly on the face, until his death in 1982 at age 74.

The project has been financed entirely with donations and admission fees to the memorial grounds.

Crazy Horse led the attack in Montana on Gen. George Armstrong Custer's 7th Cavalry in the Battle of the Little Bighorn in 1876.

Crazy Horse and other Indians fought for their land after gold was discovered in the Black Hills. Crazy Horse surrendered to the army in 1877 and was stabbed by a soldier several months later. He was thought to be 34.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 09:20 - ID#342315)
golddkm re Omnitrader
Have you got a URL for this? Phone #? Thanx, Charlie

(Thu Jun 04 1998 09:28 - ID#284255)
Silverbaron - from the site you posted.
Gold/Silver ratio 1250 to 1997

Gold/Silver ratio 1850 to 1997

(Thu Jun 04 1998 09:32 - ID#413109)
Konichi-wa Gollum san
Please email-

(Thu Jun 04 1998 09:37 - ID#43185)
Thank you. The UK CB raising rates is a VERY significant event.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 09:40 - ID#263184)
@GOLLUM; your 7:31 post was quite perceptive
I have always believed that silver will move eventually on the supply/demand fundamentals. Phrasing the analysis in the simple straight-forward way that you did makes the conclusion quite obvious. Sooner or later, silver is going to move. It is interesting how it moved just before and right after the Buffet announcement and then calmed down after the short term speculators had their day. It also seems pretty clear that Buffet doesn't play that sort of game. ( History indicates that he invests for the long term ) . So now that things are much calmer in the silver pit and the price is down by $2/ounce, what has changed from the day of the announcement? Probably nothing except that the price has declined and the interest of traders has waned. It seems to me that investors should be accumulating here on a dollar cost averaging basis for the next let up.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 09:52 - ID#335190)
All is well @ Idled workers, MODEST increase
U.S. jobless claims rise in latest week

WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - The number of Americans standing in line to collect unemployment benefits surged by 30,000 in the week ended May 30, the government said Thursday, the fastest pace since mid-January.

Initial jobless claims -- which gives an early reading on the resilience of the labor market -- rose to 339,000, up from the 309,000 in the prior week, the Labor Department said, surpassing economists expectations of a more modest 313,000.

The number of newly-idled workers was at its highest level since Jan. 10 week when claimants measured 339,000.

The number of people who have already claimed a week of benefits rose by 76,000 to 2.15 million in the week ended May 23, the latest period for which the data was available.

The four-week moving average for existing claims measured 2.10 million in the week ended May 23, up from 2.09 million in the prior four-week period.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 09:54 - ID#35571)
That is exactly the way I see it. One thing I don't know is what Mr.
Buffets target is. Is he looking for a fixed price, say $10 , or is he
looking for a given rate of return, say 20%. He doesn't seem like
the sort of man who would get into this thing without some idea
of where he is going. Once conditions get to the point where his
target is achievable he will move quietly to gain his goal. Once the
news gets out there will be a lot of shouting.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 10:02 - ID#35571)
Good. Looks like the plane is nosing over slowly, all is going according
to schedule. The Fed will need to add a little power in a few weeks.

Meanwhile the Brits have cut power.....

(Thu Jun 04 1998 10:05 - ID#227290)
Dow Jones 30 Industrials
To all:

The DJ30 has just smaashed through the April and May lows.
Is there anyone out there who understands the Dow Theory well enough to explain what must happen for a Primary Bear Market to have begun?

Did this breakdown just do it?


The Preacher

(Thu Jun 04 1998 10:05 - ID#284255)
Silverbaron - try again
Gold/Silver ratio 1250 to 1997

Gold/Silver ratio 1850 to 1997

Options site

(Thu Jun 04 1998 10:05 - ID#289357)
I get an 'Object not found' error when trying the Gold/Silver ratio links you just posted.

Mtn Bear (SE)
(Thu Jun 04 1998 10:06 - ID#347267)
Veneroso Comments:
From Email this am:

Gold Watch
Veneroso Associates
June 4,1998 Issue 06.01
John Brimelow William J. Murphy III Frank Veneroso

The Gold Market

 Down Nine Days In a Row ( through Monday ) Why?

We are of the opinion that undisclosed EMU related selling has capped the gold market over the last two months. We predicted a $290-$315 range for gold as long as the ongoing undisclosed selling continued. We did not expect to see the late 1997/early 1998's lows, largely because of an abatement in Far East household and commercial liquidations and an improvement in the sentiments of producers and funds who are becoming aware of a likely abatement in official sales.
Through Monday, old declined nine days in a row and broke slightly below the lower $290 limit of our forecasted range. Why? We present several possibilities.
1 ) Official selling has followed the market down, rather than waiting for stable to rising prices.
2 ) Two factors---future Swiss sales and fears of global deflation---have deteriorated fund sentiment toward gold, thereby encouraging short sales.
The following analysis leads us to conclude that we should not change the positive position we set forth at $300 gold.
Official Sales
Regarding official sales, we thought that any ongoing undisclosed European official sales would wait for stable to rising prices because of pressure by "Europe" ( France, Germany, and Italy ) to avoid "counter productive" gold sales. We remain confident that there have been undisclosed official sales, probably by the Dutch. It is possible the selling central bank has accelerated its sales to complete its program before key meetings in early June or early July on the ECB. If this is so, the market is at the mercy of the central bank seller until he is done.
It is possible that Russia has been a seller of reserve gold, but we doubt it. Russia has been losing foreign exchange reserves. However, she has the option to sell currency since currency reserves were $19 billion two months ago while gold reserves were worth $5 billion. Also, she can swap as well as sell gold. The 1989-92 balance of payments crisis in Russia provides some precedent. Then, faced with yet lower currency reserves than now, Russia sold gold, reducing its gold reserves by 550 tonnes to a low of 250 tonnes. Russia swapped the remaining 250 tonnes. In a swap, the physical gold is sold but the sale is offset by a long forward position. Reserve currency obligations ( or outflows ) are met but there is no net negative sale of gold on the spot and forward markets combined.
Russia has been building her gold reserves. We do not believe that holding gold versus dollars or D Marks in a country's central bank strengthens its currency, but many people do. Russia may have been raising her gold reserves to increase public confidence in the ruble. With roughly 500 tonnes of gold reserves, it is probable that she would swap rather than sell if forced to have recourse to her gold reserves.
Russia has a surplus of gold mine supply over domestic consumption and sells its mine supply from time to time. Rumored Russian sales may be occurring, but they may be sales of mine output.
Fund Sentiment
Regarding fears of Swiss sales, a recent announcement by the Swiss Finance Ministry that they plan to sell 1300 tonnes of gold beginning in late 1999 or early 2000 over a five to seven year period has damaged sentiment. This is the most negative statement made to date by the Swiss authorities. In the past, an outside panel of experts recommended that the Swiss sell 1400 tonnes. At the time the Swiss authorities noted that it was a recommendation of an outside panel only. Swiss official statements suggested sales of 400 to 700 tonnes over perhaps a decade if the required constitutional referendum passes. Peter Munk was told in January by the Swiss authorities that, if there were any sales, they would be on the order of 300 tonnes. Another negative is the position of Christian Blocher's opposition party. Initially, Blocher came out against the proposed referendum. He now appears to be focusing on using the proceeds from planned gold sales to meet the needs of the Swiss social security system.
Quite frankly, we are not worried about Swiss gold sales. First, the referendum has been postponed from early 1999 to late 1999. We still doubt that the required cantonal majority will be achieved. We believe that, with some recovery in South East Asia, a flow of more than 1000 tonnes of official gold ( both sales and loans ) are consistent with $370 to $400 gold. By the early 2000's demand will grow relative to supply at this price range. The Belgians, Dutch and Canadians will be done selling. The gold market should be able to easily absorb such sales.
We might add that it is still not clear that the Swiss intend to sell 1300 tonnes. Monday the Swiss Finance Ministry made a statement that opens the possibility that any gold sales might be capped at 500 tonnes.

ZURICH, June 2 ( Reuters ) - A Swiss newspaper reported that the Berne government planned to cap official gold sales for financing a proposed humanitarian fund at 500 tonnes rather than sell what is needed to raise seven billion Swiss francs. the plan would probably be approved by the cabinet on June 22 and limit the amount of gold Berne would gradually sell to finance the solidarity Foundation. "We need some sort of security," he ( Ulrich Gygi, Finance Ministry Director ) was quoted as saying. Daniel Eckmann, aide to Minister Kaspar Villiger, confirmed the report was accurate, but said the plan still had to be approved by the cabinet and by parliament.

This 500 tonne cap may refer only to gold sales for the humanitarian fund, with another 800 tonnes earmarked for other uses. The diverse statements made by the Swiss authorities over the last year make Swiss intentions unclear. In any case, the issue right now is not the impact of such sales on the market, but the impact of talk about official sales on fund sentiment. The Swiss issue has deteriorated sentiment and encouraged short sales.
Regarding fears of global deflation, the combination of financial and economic deterioration in Asia, a new and very severe crisis in Russia, and severe weakness in US high tech have fostered a deflation theme in financial markets. This change in market sentiment is very pervasive. It is adversely affecting the cyclically sensitive sectors of global stock markets, it is buoying the US bond market, and it is depressing commodity prices. We believe that receding prospects for European official sales led the hedge funds to significantly reduce their short positions in gold in the early months of this year. This new deflation theme has offset the earlier positive sentiment toward gold that had developed as fears of EMU related official sales ebbed. Hedge funds who trade on the OTC ( as opposed to computer funds who dominate Comex ) are greatly influenced by these major trading themes.
Economic sanctions against the Indian subcontinent with it's high level of gold consumption has further eroded fund sentiment toward gold. We believe that the economic sanctions imposed on India and Pakistan will not have a great adverse impact on these economies. The US must impose sanctions by law. The other major industrialized countries are not imposing such sanctions and the US is not urging them to do so.
WASHINGTON, June 1 ( REUTERS ) - the United States will not press for sanctions, a U.S. official said on Monday. "Thisis not an attempt to gather support from China, France and Russia and the United Kingdom for the draconian sanctions the United States has imposed." ( State Department spokesman ) James Rubin said.

We believe there has been very substantial hedge fund short selling of gold over the last several weeks. Our biggest error in judging the gold market recently has been failing to predict the emergence of this deflation theme, its adverse impact on fund sentiment, and the short selling it probably has set in motion. This deflation theme has substance. Volatile global capital flows in late 1997 and early 1998 have destroyed the economies of emerging South East Asia. We predicted in a long note on Asia last January that the real economies of emerging Asia would weaken into the third quarter of this year and that the crisis would spread to Latin America and Europe. However, we thought this prolonged and deepening crisis would provoke a stronger social response and a drive for less restrictive policies in emerging Asia. Noted economists like Martin Feldstein and Joseph Stiglitz have spoken out for reflationary policies, but the authorities in the most affected countries have turned silent. The IMF and the US Treasury have continued to demand deflationary policies in these countries. This has increased the risk of further erosion in the Asian economies and more deflationary pressures. Of course, such pressures will spread to Eastern Europe, Latin America, and eventually the US.
Despite this clearly deflationary shock to the emerging world, we have been of the opinion that the worst had passed for gold, since it is unlikely that anything comparable to the liquidations of South East Asia will recur and that they are largely over. We adhere to this position. Of course, the issue in the market today is more one of perception, investment theme, fund sentiment and fund selling, and the latter has become a major new adverse short-term factor in the market.
The gold market has fallen further than we had expected because of fund short selling encouraged above all by the spectre of global deflation. It is possible that there has been a last round of official selling which has followed the market down. We still believe that undisclosed EMU related selling and Asian liquidations have seriously depressed the gold market over the last eight months and that both have abated or will abate shortly. We attribute recent weakness primarily to fund short selling that is out of proportion to the actual deflationary pressures that presently exist in the world economy.
It is our view that the U.S. and European stock markets are dangerous financial bubbles that will eventually burst. If they burst soon, global deflationary pressures will build and the recent deflation theme that has inspired fund short selling in all commodities will prove justified. However, if these stock markets do not fall precipitously in coming months, these short positions will not be validated and there will be a scramble to cover. If the authorities in Japan and South East Asia move decisively to reflate, the scramble to cover will come sooner and will be more dramatic.
In any case, we stick with our positive position set out over the last month. The gold bear market of 1997-98 resulted from a set of exogenous shocks: EMU related official sales, which have not yet been fully disclosed; producer and fund short sales resulting from fears of such sales; and household and commercial dishoarding in South East Asia. These sources of supply have abated or will soon abate. Accelerated EMU related official selling or fund short selling does not change this basic dynamic. If these several supply shocks abate, the gold price will rise, and recent speculative shorts will cover, contributing to that rise in price. 

Veneroso Associates:
All portions of this work, copyright 1998, all rights reserved.

Gianni Dioro__A
(Thu Jun 04 1998 10:07 - ID#384350)
Buffett & Silver
Gollum, There is also the elasticity of demand that Buffett has talked about. From what I understand, there is a very small amount of Silver needed in each roll of film. The cost per roll is today insignificant, even though the Silver is indispensible. So if push comes to shove, people like Kodak would bid up remaining supplies. Silver could rise 10 fold without affecting the price of film too much.

I'm assuming Donald's article was the one about Buffett having a paper loss on a physical position. First, unless there was some heavy oxidizing, his silver didn't just disappear into smoke and he still owns the 129 million oz, maybe more.

Second, IMO the analysis seemed right on target, the conclusion way off the mark.

The story chose to dwell on Buffett's paper loss as if it were a bad investment, not on the idea that common people could purchase Silver at an avg cost lower than Berkshire's. At the same time, it does not appear that the fundamentals have changed much.

Only a nasty depression knocking off demand for industrial uses of Silver might change Buffett's insight. However, this type of depression might just destroy fiat currency, and the silver would then likely be monetized. Risk/Return looks favourable.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 10:13 - ID#57232)
Can Japan weather a Chinese devaluation?
Riefy, Gollum: There is a physics/engineering test of the stability of a dynamical system. You perturb it and see what happens. If the Japanese markets can survive the turmoil of a Yuan devaluation, then perhaps the bottom is really visible. We wait and see. Meanwhile -- keep your powder dry.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 10:17 - ID#35571)
I would tend to thing the devaluation of the Yuan, or the dollar for that
matter, would be a perterbation most agreeable to the Japanese.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 10:18 - ID#284255)
Preacher - have a look here

(Thu Jun 04 1998 10:24 - ID#35571)
@Gianni Dioro
Yes. Mr. Buffet is very shrewd, methinks. You have normal supply/demand working for you. You have inelasticity. You have
the possiblity of financial crises bringing flight money into precious
metals. Lots of positives.

I think the "analysis" of Mr. Buffets possible paper loses was at best
just a piece of work to fill some editorial space and at worst another
one of the misleading semi-factual motivated by short term speculators
hoping to stampede some wild eyed cattle.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 10:27 - ID#410215)
..... Today's PGM action .....

I am encouraged


(Thu Jun 04 1998 10:28 - ID#242325)
As today'w update from Venneroso again shows, virtually all hedge fund mangers assume that mounting deflationary pressures are bearish for POG. Thosse who argue that deflation is bullish for POG are standing in front of an express train.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 10:28 - ID#35571)
Dow theory or no, the bank of England raising rates will be a very
bearish event for the US markets as well as the FTSE. THeir are
close ties between New York and LOndon going a long way back.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 10:31 - ID#57232)
F. Veneroso
All: So far our Kitco sleuths have done just as well or better than F. V. associates. One point in his favor -- he at least admitted that he did not see the deflationary scenario rear its ugly head -- which we noted some time ago. Honesty is an asset. Too bad we don't get paid $8,000/month per 'subscriber'.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 10:33 - ID#413109)
SMASHING through
@Preacher- the DOW smashing through, I find rather strong words, even
if they were true. Watch a ) the NASDAQ for signs, and b ) looks at
a percentage change in the DOW. A 30-40 dollar change is hardly a
smash, don't you agree?

(Thu Jun 04 1998 10:35 - ID#289357)
Gianni Dioro

But if a nasty depression crushed silver's demand, it would also crush the supply from silver which comes as a byproduct of other mining - about 80-85% of the total new supply.

On the basis of a lessening in industrial demand, it isn't clear that there would be a lessening of the overall deficit between total supply and total demand.

Jewelry ( a big demand factor at present ) and monetary and collecting demand ( nonexistent demand factors at present ) are the main driving forces which I would expect to control the price in such an event. Which way the price would move would be greatly dependant on the balance between those things.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 10:36 - ID#373284)
Old Gold
Of course on the other hand, as WB was accumulating he said nothing.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 10:39 - ID#208393)
Are you using the Kitco frames URL? If so, you will see silver at 4.32 down .88 at 10:40. The silver spike is also present in the graph at left ( Still awaiting apology ;- ) )

(Thu Jun 04 1998 10:43 - ID#333126)
mysterious mining company buybacks in Aussieland


sorry if this news is old ... hmm...

(Thu Jun 04 1998 10:44 - ID#187109)
Ron the dog a sack of 2,000,000 beanie babies......
I hold some October ( that I still have high confidence of profiting on ) and I am currently w/w to buy in ( BIG ) SOOOOOON. Plat will again trade above 400 this year. imo. I am watching this market with Eagles-Eyes......uh huh. Waitin for my indicators to get to certain levels and then........... ( in Emeril Lagassi's ( sp ) best accent ) .......BAM!

Yesterdays action could very well have been a capit. of sorts ( but I thought that last week too ) . A classic island reversal formation was made. I know plat likes to do this and many other indicators say oversold. Perhaps I will buy today ( ? ) If it goes lower I will buy more....and lower more.......etc. Ya' know......'cost average' I believe is the term many at kitco like to use. RJ is using the same strategy ( from his earlier posts ) and it is a sound one. This metal will *move* while gold wallows in it's own foul depths of despair....... ( ugh ) .

How low can it go?? I dunno. But I like it here. I read the report about non PGM catalysts and I think that Volvo is one of the only manufacturers tooled for this new instrument.

Meanwhile we have a tightening supply......or so it is said. Those Japanese will be have singed ( or burnt ) fingers before this is over.......and I will be laughing all the way to my favorite vacation spots.......... ( tee-hee ) ...

nuff said now......YES? pick up the phone


Kuston - Karsten ( ASU ) sounds good. We are putting together a travel plan. Will keep you informed. Perhaps I will have my new driver by making one.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 10:46 - ID#289357)

Thanks a lot for the GSR charts - it looks ( on the shorter-term one ) just as I thought - a really good chance the trend will continue to 30 or below, perhaps below 20.

It is amazing to see how stable this ratio was until the time of the Industrial revolution and/or silver demonetization, and very volatile thereafter.....Hmmmmmmmmmm.

Do you have access to an index of all the charts you have posted on Kitco?

(Thu Jun 04 1998 10:49 - ID#342315)
gagnrad re Beware
Great humor. That's why I do metallurgy in the basement. I have a mattres hanging on one cinder block wall. I can dive at it and usually there's no real damage. Thanx

(Thu Jun 04 1998 11:02 - ID#251166)
@ RJ
Hi, you're back! Talk to us about PGMs. Thanks! dj

(Thu Jun 04 1998 11:06 - ID#333127)
pt pl
SWC back to 25, maybe pl/pt will move again?

Steve - Perth__A
(Thu Jun 04 1998 11:08 - ID#284170)
What the UN has planned for Jerusalem
For all you Bible readers & such antiqities, check out the following UN resolution re: Jerusalem. If I was an Israeli, I would be resigning from the UN!!


(Thu Jun 04 1998 11:16 - ID#57232)
All: Deflation is harder to understand partially because it happens so rarely. I think part of the problem is that the term has many aspects, whereas inflation does not.

One thing is clear -- a currency collapse causes the sale of gold, not purchase. Another thing that is clear -- people can only buy gold when they have the assets to do so. If they are broke, and need food and shelter, they will sell whatever they must sell -- even gold.

After a currency collapse, and the gold flood is over, then the price of gold goes up in that currency. Or more accurately, as Donald says, the buying power of gold goes up.

When you think of gold and silver in this manner, you see what might happen even to silver in a deflationary scenario ( see above ) . The demand for silver might go down some more. Personally I doubt this, as I think there is still enough wealth left in the world for it to go up before the last deflationary collpase occurs. I think we are in unusually complicated times when only hard assets are predictable.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 11:16 - ID#327123)
Have you read Steve Kaplans new June release? It has a different theory/prognosis than you seem to prescribe to. I would appreciate your comments on Kaplans prognosis being that he is 180 degrees out from yours.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 11:19 - ID#284255)

Are these the charts you are talking about or do you mean individual charts?
You can bookmark this url and refresh to reload.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 11:27 - ID#284255)
If you go to 'post a message to Kitco'
And scroll down to the bottom of the page.
There is a link there to view all the pictures, articles, etc
That have been posted to Kitco.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 11:27 - ID#342315)
Mozel & tolerant1 re nazi gold etc.
Mozel, your post re "A Thought" mentioned "..presence of the USG here somewhere..". 6 pak posted about neutrals helping Germany in war material during '40's. A key phrase in 6pak's was- "In many cases, the neutral nations, WHICH ALSO TRADED WITH THE ALLIES ( italics, mine ) . How close was this trade to supplying nazis with US material?? I seem to remember something about nazi gold ending up at the US treasury. How far do you think Harry Hopkins would go to make a deal?? Any comments appreciated, Charlie

(Thu Jun 04 1998 11:31 - ID#373284)
One thing is for sure. A whole great bunch of people are getting slaughtered in
both the equities and metals markets at this time. Cutting and chopping their losses. I expect to see a surprise surge in the metals markets as people start to realize they are the only real money.

Those managers that do not move their funds...Hmmmmm...Well as for me, for those managers I am going into the Kevlar three piece suit business.

Preventive insurance. I remember days when irate investors decided to take their frustrations out on these types of people.

I mentioned my new venture to my broker and he did not think it funny. I said neither do I, neither do insurance is a tough sell I guess.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 11:36 - ID#289357)

Got it - I was looking for the individual files. Thanks!

Here's a great site for US market indicators, if you don't already know about it.......something strange about the URL - if I copy from a working link, the new link works - if I type it in, it can't be found.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 11:48 - ID#43185)
Agreed. In a deflation the buying power of a dollar goes up, if only
you had one to spend. Or cared to spend today given that your buying
power will be even greater tomorrow.

In an inflation everyone rushes to spend what they have now while they
can still get something with it.

Inflations are bullish for gold in terms of dollars per ounce, but
trickier in terms of buying power per ounce.

And of course, deflations are bearish in terms of dollars per ounce.

With an ounce of gold, though, after the shouting you still have an
ounce of gold whose value will depend on its own merit, whereas with
a dollar you will have a dollars worth of debt owed to you whose
value will depend on what the banks, the government and poplular
opinion says it is.

Which will be worth more? Thats hard to say. The value of a thing or
a concept is only as much as is agreed to among the interested parties.
I could agree to give you $900 for an ounce of gold, but if at the time
I do it $900 will only buy 1 barrel of oil, then the ounce of gold is
not worth so much in terms of barrel-of-oil-buying power than it is

Flight to safety is merely an attempt to preserve buying power in times
revaluations as to the future relative worth of various repositories
into which that wealth might be placed.

From that stand point, dollars, ounces of gold, barrels of oil, or
any other thing have nothing more or less going for them other than
we guage might be their future relative worth as opposed to their
current relative worth.

In an inflation, the ever increasing number of dollars associated with
the amount required to purchase an ounce of gold might prompt the holder
of that ounce of gold to believe that he is gaining something. In a
deflation he might feel he is losing something, but it is all maya. All

Just as the physicists are confused by the difference between truth and
reality so are those who concern themselves with wealth oft confused by
the numbers.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 11:49 - ID#187218)
Jefferson Coin & Bullion has it right ....

"... Many in our industry are ringing alarm bells and selling a lot of gold ... We believe this approach is 'gimmicky' and we will not pursue it... "

"... Our View is that the world will not end with Y2K... most of the technical problems associated with this phenomena will be solved well ahead of time... public perception of the problem will create a reality that will affect everyone... "

( Source: Jefferson Coin & Bullion "Market Insights", June 1998 )

BTW: Thanx to tolerant1 for turning me onto these guys.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 11:49 - ID#431263)
Y2K a major problem as if we didn't already know!

(Thu Jun 04 1998 11:54 - ID#187218)
"Bilderbergers' Secret Agenda Revealed"...

(Thu Jun 04 1998 11:54 - ID#373284)
O'tay, just got a newsletter offer that says buy, buy, buy and buy lots of silver!
Who woulda thunkit. Says silver will be $10 by summer, and $20 by year end. Also offered to send me one ounce of silver for free if I send in $175 for a 2yr subscription. Hmmmmmmmm...I dunno, that ounce of silver looks mouth watering. Ah yeah...

And I have a patent on a condom that inflates during use. Ah Yeah. Not...

Oh yeah, told me millionaires had already been made out of ORDINARY people like ordinary fella like me...America...what a country...

(Thu Jun 04 1998 11:57 - ID#373284)

(Thu Jun 04 1998 11:58 - ID#431263)

(Thu Jun 04 1998 12:01 - ID#342315)
Silverbaron re Site
They've got it. Thanx a bunch for this, Charlie

(Thu Jun 04 1998 12:01 - ID#254269)
Sharefin and Nick @ C. Thanks for your early a.m. posts re Aussie

(Thu Jun 04 1998 12:01 - ID#187109)
JTF....def/inf...(and Donald)...
I verily much enjoyed your 11:16. I can picture Donald right home sittin' in front of his 'puta and grinning wryly ( not riley, Riley ) and snickering at his 'predictions' of LAST YEAR.
Aren't things looking a little clearer now Donald? I bet you knew that, eventually you wouldn't have to be banging our heads with pieces of lumber ( louisville sluggers ) so we can see what you meant..... ( thatwasaramblingsentence ) .
Hats off to the patient one...........The Don.
away......for the unfolding
uyingplatasitdrops ( soundfamilar ) ( ? )

(Thu Jun 04 1998 12:03 - ID#213265)
@the scene
JTF -- Re: inflation/deflation; What you say seems to be correct; people will and do spend their 'precious' as needed for food, as well as anything else! That is why it would behoove people to not only acquire the metals, but those other necessay items so they won't have to spend their metals to eat, but to save those for items that may be purchased at relative rock bottom/give-away prices from those who also want to eat.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 12:06 - ID#373284)
There is no question that the USG was dirty in that period of time. NONE.

Aragorn III
(Thu Jun 04 1998 12:12 - ID#212323)
Tolerant1--you said "One thing is for sure." and then gave an example
There is yet another sure thing...there is a jingling sound when I walk.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 12:15 - ID#254269)
Greenspan. Is his term up in April of 1999 ? Just got through scanning the overnight
posts and someone ( Golden Cheesehead, I think ) made a post that indicates AG's term expires then. Can anyone clarify or confirm. TIA

(Thu Jun 04 1998 12:20 - ID#410198)
WetGold...come on don't get caught by that line of BS Jefferson makes little or no money on bullion
hes old firm Blanchard,has that market even though they are bait and switch artists.....the reason for those statements is because they prefer to sell high priced them see if I'am wrong heres a good test ask them for a common date MS 65 $20.00 Saint current wholesale $885.00

If you beleave everything you read/hear you might as well eat everything you see

(Thu Jun 04 1998 12:21 - ID#238275)
Y2K problems solved well ahead of time?
Sounds like the folks at Jefferson have been inhaling. ( Say, Clinton's middle name is Jefferson. Any connection there? )

A few other famous quotes of the 20th century:

With the new 'Social Security' system, everyone will have sufficient resources in their retirement years.

The Japanese will never bomb Pearl Harbor.

The USA is the only nation that will EVER have the technology to develop the Atomic Bomb.

The Arabs need our money more than we need their oil.... there will NEVER be an oil embargo.

With the invention of antibiotics, people will never be sick again!

We will win the war in Vietnam.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 12:22 - ID#410198)
KitKat ......what country are you in?

(Thu Jun 04 1998 12:27 - ID#333127)
gold /dollar
IMHO if there is any repudiation of the US dollar for whatever reason gold will go up and probably bigtime. At this point in time the dollar is the one everyone wants. Inflation or deflation changes the game and the way the US is seen,no longer the safe haven, no longer old reliable. I wonder what will the gov. do, what new laws will go on the books,who takes it on the chin to re-elect the next bunch. In case of deflation do we stop foreigners from buying up the US? Do we have a two currency system, think about itI don't think the gun will rule.

I'll stay with a buy for gold in either a deflation or an inflation until another currency comes along that is the currency in power as is the dollar.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 12:29 - ID#342315)
tolerant1 re dirty
If they did what we think they did during WW2, there's no limit to what's going on now. These bastards are playing with blood money and you know what that means. God Almighty has the last hand and that hand always wins. Thanx buddy, Charlie

(Thu Jun 04 1998 12:32 - ID#344239)

(Thu Jun 04 1998 12:33 - ID#187218)

Thanx for the advice -- btw ... could you pick up those turnips that fell off the truck that dropped me off ...

I've been in this business for a long time and have acquired lotsa PMs... used other including the GE owned "Blanchard & Co.", AJPM, JCB, Eastern Numismatic, NA Trading, SDL, bla-bla-bla..... My relationship with each of these representatives requires them to know that I buy at LOWEST PRICE ... they quote prices - that's it - they know I do my research and know what I want and therefore - give my money to the low guy ... This is true of rarities, as well as, bullion.

I get many dozens of pamphlets on a daily basis for all my hobbies, interests, etc. One must parse truth in whatever we read. Jim Blanchard ( a.k.a. jcb ) is in a legitimate business and deserves to be compensated for his service. As far as believing everthing I read ... come on ...

Thanx for your comments, though.

p.s. Is it their the contrarian view of Y2K that is upsetting ?

(Thu Jun 04 1998 12:40 - ID#263184)
@Gollum: I doubt that it makes much difference right now
what Mr. Buffet is looking for in price or return. As an astute long term investor, he and his advisors have determined that silver is below its equilibrium price at this point in time. Things could change that analysis, but fundamental laws of supply and demand don't alter that quickly. I suspect that Mr. Buffet will monitor the situation on an ongoing basis as he does his other investments and make his decisions accordingly without worrying about whether he achieved a certain preset ROI or price he has in mind. I think history has taught us that when you get a supply/demand imbalance and eliminate the overhanging inventories, the price mechanism which effectively counteracts the supply deficits overshoots the equilibrium price ( often by a lot ) and prices go haywire. Look at palladium prices this year for an example. Also, after the blowoff in prices when we have the crowd buying and the commodity goes up too high and then down, we have to contend with the excess supply that is brought onto the market in the form of new mines. Look at what happened to silver supply/demand from 1985-1990.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 12:41 - ID#187218)
I am not familiar with this. Are U recmmending it ?


(Thu Jun 04 1998 12:42 - ID#20748)
Plagiarized from Avid
topxprt... Wed, Jun 3, 5:23PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
pester: just tryin to make a buck, like everyone else here. I'll tell you, though, I used to gump it all the time ( buy lows, down bars etc ) but what has changed about my trading is I don't do that any more.
One of these days that 'dip' is going to turn into an unrecoverable plunge, and I sure as heck don't want to get into a mess like that!

topxprt... Wed, Jun 3, 8:31PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
PLLllllllllllllllllllllllllllllUNGE AHEAD!!!!

topxprt... Thu, Jun 4, 0:42AM CST ( -0600 GMT )
the people of the US have been building their fortune on the lies of devils. I have been saying this ever since I came into this chat room, but I have been buying all the way because the trend was too
powerful to fight. I really thought I would nail the top, but I missed it. I was short on that fateful day but then they took out 113570, and even today that break haunts me. Because of it when I am short I
am a nervous wreck, but I am constantly frustrated by the horrible buying. And so here we are. They showed us that island - for a few sessions, but they crashed right back into it. Let's face it, that
wasn't supposed to happen. But the market tried to 'cover' up and still show the bull had legs, but the bull was dead. Now we have just closed below the island low, so much for the big breakaway. This
market is going DOWN DOWN DOWN, and any rally is sellable. The ULTIMATE sell is selling the break of new highs, but I have pretty much given up on that. Sorry, Mr and Mrs 401k, da boyz got
yo money and you got nuthin

(Thu Jun 04 1998 12:43 - ID#269191)
Hedge Fund Managers, Deflation and the price of gold.
Sure the hedge fund guys think deflation is bearish for gold because
they are working from an erroneous definition of deflation: a declining
price level. If they were using a correct definition: a sustained
contraction of money and credit, they would sing a different tune.
The reason for this is that a mere decline in the general level of
prices without a credit collapse would increase the real returns
on dollar denominated short-term Treasuries without jeporadizing their
creditworthiness. However, in a true global deflationary credit collapse, the creditworthiness of all government paper-including the
fiat currencies themselves-would come into grave doubt. Accordingly,
a true deflation would trigger a run to money that cannot be repudiated or defaulted upon.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 13:08 - ID#347235)
Bilderbergers & Texxe Marrs
This guy has got to be a bigger wacko than Oral Roberts!!

(Thu Jun 04 1998 13:13 - ID#208393)
Go to:
with a frames capable viewer and you will be in the same virtual reality.
Look at the silver graph to the left. See the spike? Once you take this walk, then we can talk.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 13:13 - ID#344239)

(Thu Jun 04 1998 13:16 - ID#410198)
WetGold ..has nothing to with Y2K ..its about being honest...'.if you charge 20% plus say so,I just
get tired of folks calling me to sell me stuff from all the folks you mentioned and I'am the one that has to break the bad news

(Thu Jun 04 1998 13:16 - ID#373284)
I am tip toeing closer and closer with my patented magnet, veeerrry,veeerrry slowly...tip...toe...tip...toe...

(Thu Jun 04 1998 13:19 - ID#210235)
@Warning, Off topic

(Thu Jun 04 1998 13:22 - ID#187218)
I utilize many sources in an effort to find the truth...

We probably agree that Mr/Mrs Marrs hold views that are not traditional...

(Thu Jun 04 1998 13:23 - ID#410198)
KitKat..I use that frame it shows silver 5.16 its been there all morning
as for the chart ....looks like a conspiracy I can make no sense of that...

(Thu Jun 04 1998 13:28 - ID#187218)
If you can beat quotes by 20% I will continually buy from you until my death...

Let's not play the 'give me call' or 'give me what prices you have' non-sense. Let's do business and not bullsh*t ... sorry, but my time is money.

I have most Saints - BUT- need coupla' more years to complete set.
Quote me a price on 1907 MS64/65 Saint ? Love to save money.


(Thu Jun 04 1998 13:28 - ID#373284)
Hmmmmmmmmmmmm...wonder what would happen to the market if Mt. St.
Helen snorted big time and took out Redmond...tick...tock...

(Thu Jun 04 1998 13:32 - ID#347235)
Wet Gold
I agree on that point. Most of those guys, Roberts, Robertson,Hagee and the like are simply in it for the MONEY, they couldn't make a living any other way and have become obscenely rich scaring the H*ll out of people who should know better. Shalom

Gianni Dioro__A
(Thu Jun 04 1998 13:35 - ID#384350)
Silverbaron, Gollum
Gollum, you caught my error when you correctly stated Buffett's thoughts on the INELASTICITY of demand.

Silverbaron, good comment on shrinking supply in a economic slowdown. Buffett also mentioned the by-product status of Silver, he talked about inelasticity of demand in this regard, in addition to its use in the camara film industry. If the price of silver rises dramatically it won't affect the price of film by much at all. Therefore in tight supplies, Fuji and Kodak, would be willing to pay a whole lot more for Silver.

I think we all agree that when people start considering silver ( gold ) as money again, likely by default, then we will see the true value ( buying power ) of hard money.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 13:37 - ID#373284)
Hmmmmmmm...If I wanted to keep people in dollars I would tell everybody that
nobody but the ALMIGHTY US BANKING SYSTEM, DA DA...Dahhhhhh...was so prepared they got done before they started...


(Thu Jun 04 1998 13:39 - ID#336393)
Bart has been having trouble with the Silver quotes for the past 3 weeks or so. Every once in a while a blip goes through that is off by about $1.00. These blips are NOT accurate. If you are in question always verify with a second source.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 13:40 - ID#208393)
Quite the price drop. Looks attractive. The SI thread has been heated. What do you think, is it a trap or opportunity? Preacher?

@robnoel - Yeah, right! Bart and I are conspiring to get an apology from you. The top quote changed while you were dozzzzzzzzzzzzzzing.

@ALL - Joy and elation - It's past the witching hour and we are in the green. Three days in a row! The Bugs will dance tonight and dig deeper tomorrow. ( Into their pockets that is )

(Thu Jun 04 1998 13:41 - ID#335190)
Corporate USofA will use "Labour Strike" @ This is the signal - Are you ready? Down Down Down
UAW, GM clash again as strike deadline looms at key stamping plant

FLINT, Mich. ( AP ) -- The United Auto Workers and General Motors Corp. clashed again over the automaker's removal of equipment at a key stamping plant where the union has threatened a strike.

UAW Local 659 represents about 3,400 hourly workers at the stamping plant. Talks further deteriorated Wednesday after union leaders learned that GM had hired a trucking company to remove racks from the plant.

GM maintains the union has not co-operated with changes to make the plant more competitive. The company insists it has made a significant portion of the planned investment, though officials will not say how much.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 13:43 - ID#410198)
WetGold...I only deal with low grade and common date numismatics,I do not have any 07'saints in 4/5
I do have 07 Libertys MS61 NGC/PCGS for $499.00....I only sell what I have PS sets have no added value

(Thu Jun 04 1998 13:44 - ID#390415)
Gold, Platinum, Y2k, and the Swiss
This is nearly a must-read if you are interested in the Y2k - gold relationship and the Swiss gold sales issue:

As usual, investment results are not guaranteed. Contact your Y2K software advisor for specific guidance on these matters.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 13:45 - ID#373284)
I hate it when I post the unchecked version...Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm...
Now on a silver note. First of all, Buffet bought to hold. His profits will explode in the next two to three years. He has consistently been ahead of everyone...even those of us here at Kitco. In addition, what did he invest, 2%, 3% of holdings. Whats his down side. None.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 13:45 - ID#208393)
@Frustrated - Thanks
Now talk to that *!@** pig headed robnoel_A. He has been accusing me of smoking dope and seeing things. As a confirmed wino, I am deeply offended . Maybe we will have to take this to K2 and I'll have it out with him.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 13:47 - ID#210235)
@Someone asked, yesterday, why we were watching Brazil
effrey Sachs has written a scathing denouncement of the IMF's policies and their affects worldwide. Indonesia yesterday, Russia today, Brazil tomorrow.

The problem is that the I.M.F. has become the Typhoid Mary of emerging markets, spreading recessions in country after country.

The I.M.F. lends its client governments money to repay foreign investors, with the condition that the government also jack up interest rates, cut the flow of credits to the banking system and close weak banks. The measures are intended to restore investors' confidence. Instead, they kill the economies and further undermine confidence. . . .

In emerging markets all over the world, the drama is repeated. Investors who chased high short-term interest rates with short-term loans in recent years are calling in their loans. In just about every case, the I.M.F. is urging a heroic defense of the currency through draconian interest rate increases, sometimes backed by bailouts, sometimes not. The monetary medicine is now being applied with I.M.F. moral support in Brazil and South Africa, and with I.M.F. financial support in other parts of Africa, in Russia and throughout Asia.

It's worth registering with the NYTimes to read the whole article, Safire's editorial on the Supreme Court and today's cartoon. It's free.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 13:51 - ID#242325)
In trying to come to an assessment of the gold market one must consider both bullish and bearish factors.

The deflationary wind out of Asia and Russia is the primary bearish factor today. I had mistakenly assumed the worst was over on this front when I was positive on POG some weeks ago. My take now is that a possible Chinese devaluation is the key factor. If no, then very little additional downside in POG. If yes, still quite a bit of downside.

I am also troubled by the poor action of the gold stocks. They didn't rally with POG yesterday and volume has dried up today.

But as Steve Kaplan rightly points out POG has made a triple bottom. Speculative sentiment is very negative. Commercials are long. Open interest has been climbing along with prices. Gold stocks are on the bargain counter again.

Bull or bear -- a very tough call.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 13:55 - ID#350179)
Russian interest rates lowered

(Thu Jun 04 1998 13:58 - ID#251166)
@ MM re. drop in Russian interest rates...
...from 150% to a mere 60%. Sounds reasonable to me.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 14:00 - ID#410198)
Kitkat .....I think time for a chill was a joke to start with...

(Thu Jun 04 1998 14:02 - ID#187218)
Thanx for your post.

My purchases are for quality pieces from 64+ to 68. My 'set' collection is not to make money. So many of us are interested in short-term gratification. The ability to recognize and delay the pleasures of immediate gratification and place them into a long-term gain ( whatever that is for you ) is what seperates 'man' from the creatures on the bottom of the chain.

I've been very fortunate in my life, in that, I have never sold my PM collection. My collection is meant to survive the coming fiat demise. If it fails to arrive in my lifetime it will be given to those who hold these same values.

btw: I don't like LIBs due to the price rise within the last year. I like better date Saints, Nickels, and rare 19th century commems ( Au & Ag ) .

Maybe one day I can have my name associated with a collection ( Eliasberg, Pittman, Wells Fargo, etc ) ...... hmmmmmm .... the WetGold Collection ..... has a ring to it....

(Thu Jun 04 1998 14:05 - ID#333127)
Do the mainland Chinese have access to dollars as the Russians do???

(Thu Jun 04 1998 14:09 - ID#350179)
Anybody we know here?
'Livin' it up at the Hotel "Pribaltiyskaya"

(Thu Jun 04 1998 14:12 - ID#410198)
WetGold...thats the difference between collectors and investors,collectors buy with no intention of
of selling,investors buy with intention of selling for a profit....I do for insurance....nothing complicated

Lurker 777
(Thu Jun 04 1998 14:13 - ID#317247)
Retired Soldier: Oral Roberts, Pat Robertson and John Hagee are three of the finest examples of great evangelical leaders this country needs. This is their calling and praise GOD for it! You are correct that they are scaring the HELL out of people. I thank GOD that HELL has been scared out of me and when I die I will be with my Savior Jesus Christ in heaven.

I have noticed in the past you have made critical comments about Christians. Please understand we are not a threat to you and love you. I can only pray that through your searching you will find Jesus Christ and get HELL scared out of you!

(Thu Jun 04 1998 14:14 - ID#335190)
FWIW @ Strike is a useful TOOL for Corporations (Union leaders are policemen, worker's controller's)
The great strike 1936 strike came when furriers demanded the five-day forty-hour week and a 25 per cent increase in wages. While the manufacturers and AFL officials shouted "MOSCOW PLOT". New York's whole rank and file in fur soon rallied.

"Ten thousand strikers responded to the strike call March 08 1926. The police lunged into the mass of workers and beat down hundreds of strikers, men and women. The workers fought back. In the face of this immovable force the police were powerless. One hundred men and twenty-five women were arrested."

Message to Congress, Senate Document No. 173, 75th Congr. 3d Sen., p.2

On April 29 1938, Pres. Franklin D. Roosevelt, in citing the following figures in respect to concentration of stock ownership, indicated who received the dividends which big business ladled out.

" The year 1929 was a banner year for the distribution of stock ownership. But in that year three-tenths of one per cent of our population received 78 per cent of the dividends reported by individuals. This has roughly the same effect as if, out of every 300 persons in our population, one person received 78 cents of every dollar of corporate dividends while the other 299 persons divided up the 22 cents between them."

FWIW........Take Care.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 14:19 - ID#254269)
Quote of the day: " All markets are good if you are positioned correctly. "
Gene Inger.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 14:19 - ID#288186)
Current July Comex Silver price..
July Comex Silver just had a nice pop up to 5.23 It's currently
at 5.21 Aug Comex Gold is currently 295.40 Maybe a nice finish
for the day?

(Thu Jun 04 1998 14:21 - ID#57232)
Chinese and dollars
rube: I am no expert on this -- Donald probably knows better. But -- what I know is that the Russians hoard dollars because they do not trust the stability of their own currency. The Chinese, however, are more apt to focus on barter in rural areas. They also have a deep distrust of 'paper' money having been through at least 8 disastrous inflationary 'fiat' currency periods in their history.

The Chinese do have 'official' US dollar reserves in their Central Banks, as does any CB the world over. So -- my intuitive guess is that the Russians have more US dollars than the Chinese. And, I suspect that the Chinese are actively accumulating gold.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 14:29 - ID#347235)
Lurker 777
I have nothing against christianity, only the charlatans,who are on TV
strictly for the money. I do happen to have many fine Christain ministers and priests as personal friends and they feel the same toward most of the Televangilists as I do THEY ARE IN IT FOR THE MONEY AND FAME their screeching about the end cannot be accurately predicted by anyone living. Only G-d knows when he will pull the plug and that is the beauty off it. Otherwise we ALL would shake in our shoes. Shalom to you.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 14:33 - ID#35571)
Oh, I quite agree it makes little difference now. And might well be content to just sit there forever watching it go up, but he's got an awful
lot of the stuff and I sure wouldn't mind if he would give me a call
before he sells it.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 14:53 - ID#333127)
to JTF

(Thu Jun 04 1998 14:53 - ID#347239)
Gold, Platinum,Y2K and the Swiss

(Thu Jun 04 1998 14:59 - ID#208393)
Gold will surely benefit from the official announcement. These gentlemen have had at their disposal the concrete examples of currency manipulation and devaluations ranging from Mexico, to Asia, to Australia to Russia. They must act quickly to include Gold in the mix for stability. The threat is at the doorstep. The US$ is afraid and quickly spins out tales
of Nazi Gold.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 15:14 - ID#304282)
Supreme court denies Starr's request

(Thu Jun 04 1998 15:15 - ID#210235)
@Alternative site for further
religious discussion ( Bye! ) :

Avalon, your daily quote is much appreciated.

Too many to list: Names of posters who added something of value these past 2 days. Thank you. Kitco reminds me of a basketball game when the first string comes back into the game after their break.

Now back to my chores, but what if the Japanese, Hangseng, oil, gold, are in fact finding footholds here? Does that mean the deflation freight train may, in fact, hit the breaks successfully? If the Chinese are selling defense to Pakistan, Iran, etc. does this mean new cold war/reflation? Off to ruminate - you need three stomaches to digest these markets.


(Thu Jun 04 1998 15:18 - ID#43185)
Well, I tried to email you, but I've been having trouble with computers
in general all day and I don't know how much success I had.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 15:28 - ID#269409)
@ Japan...Irresponsibility and inflation are our friends???
Anyone else read the Wall St Journal article yesterday discussing the advice of MIT economist Paul Krugman? Someone posted a long article by Krugman here at Kitco in the past 2 days.

Anyway, Krugman's view is that Japan should enormously inflate their money supply, and make promises to the populace and to business that they'll be absolutely "irresponsible" about it, in order to spur borrowing and economic expansion. ( Since no one is borrowing now, with deflationary pressures, even at 1% rates! )

Interesting concept...that the "savers" and the "responsible" in Japan...have gone too far and are now the cause of that nation's economic ills! Incidentally, a number of other MIT economists agree with Krugman.

Thought Kitco would love this...thoughts?

Aragorn III
(Thu Jun 04 1998 15:35 - ID#212323)
As if I didn't have enough to do...
Now I must tie a bell around Tolerant's neck.
( a la EB ) Away... tocontemplatemagnets...and to recover my own source of jingle noises.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 15:35 - ID#269409)
@ WetGold...Saints
If you REALLY want a run around and some obfuscation on prices...try calling U...uhh I mean, try calling a rather prominent advertiser on the site, who deals in Gold ( and sales of "analysis" by Whacko phony guru's from beyond our shores... ) ....try getting a quick and solid quote from them!

(Thu Jun 04 1998 15:50 - ID#153102)
@LGB re Krugman
How have Japanese who have saved BOJ Notes or debt payable to someone besides themselves actually saved anything ? They haven't.

Anything can be deduced from a contradiction and the contradiction at the heart of debt currency "money" and economy is that banks and corporations have been "capitalized" without capital.

The major benefit of the debt currency which people all over the world are compensated in is that it can be inflated to discourage hoarding. Well, hoarding is another word for saving, isn't it ? So, Krugman is right. If you want the people to spend the debt currency in their hands, make them believe it will always be worth less tomorrow than it is today. You have to destroy the savers to save the economy. Whoa, is this another contradiction rearing its head, a consequence of the fact you cannot "invest" debt ?

(Thu Jun 04 1998 15:52 - ID#269409)
Loral Article...Wall St. Journal
One more note on the "technology transfer" stuff. There was an excellent article in the WSJ yesterday, defining why the so called "technology transfer" is a bogus thing and did not occur. It was factual for a change.

Let me also note for the record, that Bernard Schwartz and Loral corporation, have always shown themselves to be quite patriotic and loyal to this country.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 15:52 - ID#410198)
LGB come on spit it out...what are you saying....being a little PC....

(Thu Jun 04 1998 16:02 - ID#269409)
@ Mozel....worthless paper
Will all those who have saved by holding "worthless" paper, U.S. dollars and Treasury's especially, please divest themselves of that worthless paper immediately if not sooner, by sending it to me. I promise to dispose of it properly, send something of intrinsic worth in return!

Back to rocket science now, and we just got a company wide notice saying no "Net" stuff on the job, so with lunch hour coming to a close....I'm away!!

(Thu Jun 04 1998 16:02 - ID#257148)
Who was it who said

"Patriotism is the last refuge of the scoundrel"?

(Thu Jun 04 1998 16:03 - ID#252127)
Kitcat 14:59

Speaks the truth

(Thu Jun 04 1998 16:04 - ID#269409)
@ ROnboel
I was chastised by Bart last time I said it here, so I can only speak in "riddles" regarding this subject! ( Kinda like someone we all know and love! )

Away till evening, rocket science beckons....

(Thu Jun 04 1998 16:08 - ID#187218)
Have bought from U??G???? and on the mailing list ....

(Thu Jun 04 1998 16:13 - ID#153102)
@LGB re worthless paper & global consequence
How have Japanese who have saved BOJ Notes or debt payable to someone besides themselves actually saved anything ? They haven't.
You misquoted me. The paper Massa lets you use and let's Loral use to compensate you for your labor is good to use anywhere on the plantation. Just be sure to follow all of Massa's rules and regulations or you will be penalized.

What I said was Massa must make sure that you believe the paper will be worth less tomorrow than it is today, so that you think it is hot money and part with it as soon as possible so you don't get burned by its devaluation.

On the global scene as on the local plantation, the saver must be destroyed to save Massa's plantation system. The means the Japanese since they are hoarding Massa's paper.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 16:17 - ID#187218)
"The Economist",,,30 May - 05 June 1998

"... The BANK OF ENGLAND surprised London analysts when it raised interest rates by 0.25% to 7.5%, because it was worried about wage rises feeding inflation... "

"... MERRILL LYNCH agreed to pay $400m to settle a $2 billion lawsuit brought by Orange County, California, after its 1994 bankruptcy became the largest municipal collapse in American history. The firm denied any wrongdoing... "

"... In an unusual public reprimand, securities regulators in Hong Kong accused MORGAN STANLEY ASIA of misconduct after failing to ensure full disclosure of an injection of assets into a mainland-backed ( "red-chip" ) company, China Everbright. The investment bank cried foul... "
"... The AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR sagged to a 12-year low, dragged down by the yen, and not heartened by news that GDP grew at a brisk rate of 4.9% in the year to the first quarter. Much of the growth merely added to stocks: domestic demand fell for the first time in five years... "

"... The AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR sagged to a 12-year low, dragged down by the yen, and not heartened by news that GDP grew at a brisk rate of 4.9% in the year to the first quarter. Much of the growth merely added to stocks: domestic demand fell for the first time in five years... "


(Thu Jun 04 1998 16:19 - ID#217268)
tolerant@13:28 - proximity to Redmond, WA
Mt.St.Helens is at least 100 MILES and UPWIND from Redmond, WA. Mt. Rainier is about 60 MILES and UPWIND. Only the very South end of Puget Sound received a "trace" of ash in the eruption of 1990. The post yesterday, linking the last outbreak of grasshoppers in Arizona to the 1980 eruption of MT.ST.Helens, may be interested to know there has been recent low-level surface earthquatkes at that mountain. Hmmmmmmmm.....

If memory serves, Mr. Soros allegedly has an financial interest in Apex Silver ( SIL ) and Mr. Buffett definately has/had a financial interest in Silver. It seems "smart money" has taken out some insurance.

Short of buying ( 1 ) share of Berkshire Hathaway ( $75k ) , how would an individual investor ( myself ) EXACTLY replicate Mr. Buffet's position, albeit at a much, much lower level of participation ???? Not that I think he is right or wrong ... just an exercise.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 16:20 - ID#410198)
WetGold....good advice cost money,to get the truth costs $54,00 for 6 months of CDN
the full name Coin Dealer Newsletter or the "grey sheet" weekly market updates current wholesale prices for every coin minted in the US

(Thu Jun 04 1998 16:27 - ID#187218)
Thanx for the update ... been there ... done that ....

I read everything ... it's a sickness I've had since childhood ... rarely pay for advice, however, I do look to the stars like Benjamin Graham, Ludwig von Mises, et al.

Appreciate the info...

Gianni Dioro__A
(Thu Jun 04 1998 16:33 - ID#384350)
Pyramid, Berkshire Hathaway
You can buy a "B" share for 1/30th of the price of an "A" share. These shares almost always trade in odd lots. The purchase or sale of 1 B share is fairly common.

Aragorn III
(Thu Jun 04 1998 16:37 - ID#212323)
A slightly twisted view, just to get you thinking...about receipts...
With money being what it is today, receipts are given to the wrong parties in transactions. ( Mozel may like this... )
After strolling through the supermarket picking out your monthly groceries, you check-out at the cashier and are told that your total is 120 dollars. You hand them a greenish wad of 10's and 20's, and before your groceries are sacked up the cashier also hands you a RECEIPT. As you put the last sack of food in the cart to wheel out to your car, a wave of sanity sweeps over you so you pause to ask the cashier, "What is THIS for?"

The clerk says, "I dunno, proof of our transaction, I guess."

You say, "But what more *proof* do I need than these bags of food here? Pehaps I should be giving YOU a receipt that says I received this itemized list of food in exchange for that green paper. That might help enable you to pass along that green paper to the next person as though it were worth something."

(Thu Jun 04 1998 16:40 - ID#327123)
The question we are examining here, as to whether GOLD will go up or down in a deflationary envionment, is very complex this time. If we take a look from the standpoint of the adverage citizen in Indonesia gold definetly goes up in relation to their currency in the last 6 months. At the same time it has become less expensive to us as it came down in U.S. dollar value. When our currency starts to crumble do we get the same affect that the Indonesians have? I think we will. First, money in the USA has for years been redistributing from the adverage persons pocket into the pockets of the very wealthy. We have a very unbalanced economy because of that redisribution. The upper 2 or 3% didn't get wealthy by being stupid. The money gives them immence power, and they are going to protect that power with a vengence. I only see two ways they can do that. 1. They can place their dollars into gold or, 2. Place their money in a gold back currency, which would be the Euro Dollar. Either way they maintain their wealth and power. With all that wealth going into gold if they choose the first option it has to drive the price up in addition to the price rising in dollar terms as the dollar collapses. If they choose the other option they should be able to maintain their wealth while the dollar slides. Gold would still rise in US Dollar terms. Quite frankly, I believe both options will be used for this reason; when the EURO goes into effect I believe foreign investments now in the U.S. are going desert to the EURO like rats on a sinking ship. All we can do, as adverage citizens, is accumulate as much gold as we can before this thing really gets started. Anyone trying to wait to the last minute to go to gold will be overwhelmed by the speed of the change just like the people that haven't the foggiest idea about what is coming.

I'm really open to listen to other peoples thoughts on how this is going to play out. There is to much at risk not to be.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 16:42 - ID#252150)
Old Gold@Agree with you about Chinese devaluation. Even though the USG may
buy them off temporarily, I think it's inevitable. The deflationary conflagration could push POG down to 250.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 16:44 - ID#187218)
Oh what a world it would be if we were as tenacious ...

(Thu Jun 04 1998 16:49 - ID#187218)
Very precise and to the point... Your analysis is 'right on'...

(Thu Jun 04 1998 16:49 - ID#373284)
So it wasn't a great plan.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 16:51 - ID#153102)
@AragornIII @Bully Beef
Your grocery receipt is a record of use. Not currently reportable for uses of less than 10,000 instances at one time. If receipts were written for Notes, they could not be receipts because no one has been paid. I think contradiction in the money system of a country enables doublething and newspeak. Error begets error.

@Bully Beef In response to your rascist inquiry, there was a report of some Afro-Canadians holed up in Jackson's Hole. But, Jackson may have more than one Hole in his name and one might conceivably be in Montana. Maybe some firm like Loral can build us an Afro Tracker, so we can have precise statistical data to answer your type of question.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 16:52 - ID#373284)
pyramid - are you trying to tell me that geography, statistics, odds making or any
other thought that mankind has ever developed can determine the future.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 16:53 - ID#252391)
tsclaw - what do you think about..
a Chinese devaluation being bearish for gold?

(Thu Jun 04 1998 16:54 - ID#194311)
Jap bad loans figure keeps on rising...
Japan Banks Wallow in Bad Loans

TOKYO ( AP ) -- They're the biggest banks in the world. And their
debts are bigger than the entire economies of Indonesia, Thailand
and Singapore combined.
Eight years after Japan's economic bubble burst, its banks are
still wallowing in an estimated $550 billion in bad loans.
Whether they will be able to scale their mountain of debt is a
crucial factor in Japan's overall economic recovery and in reviving
Asia as a whole.
But analysts say Japanese bankers still haven't learned their
most important lesson -- how to lend money profitably.
More than 40 percent of all loans by Japan's largest banks last
year went to the bloated and risky construction and real estate
industries. Many loans by U.S. banks, by contrast, go to
middle-class home buyers, who rarely default.
The reason why Japan has been able to muddle along while other
Asian nations had to go hat in hand to the International Monetary
Fund is simple: Japan has the world's largest pool of cash.
Countries like Thailand and Indonesia, on the other hand, are
dependent on overseas money to fuel their economies. And when
foreigners decided Asia's financial problems were too risky, those
countries suddenly found themselves strapped for cash.
Japan has been blessed by the prodigious savings rate of its
workers, who sock away more than one yen, the national currency, in
every eight, almost three times the U.S. rate.
As a result, Japan's banks sit on huge piles of cash. The Bank
of Tokyo-Mitsubishi Ltd., for instance, is the world's largest
bank, with just under $700 billion in assets. Chase Manhattan Corp.
is the largest U.S. bank in terms of assets, with $365.52 billion
as of Dec. 31, 1997.
But, analysts warn, Japan's banks are rapidly wasting this
birthright. While assets at Japan's 12 largest banks total $3.7
trillion, that sum has shrunk by 6 percent -- erasing $242 billion --
in the last six months of 1997.
Jim McGinnis, senior banking analyst at the Tokyo branch of
Dresdner Kleinwort Benson, said Japan's banks are squandering their
depositors' wealth by making loans that not only don't earn enough
interest but often fail outright.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 17:00 - ID#229277)
LGB: Advice to Japan to spur inflation by increasing the money supply
I'm not sure it'll work. The Japanese consumer has a lot of savings. However, they are afraid they may lose their jobs so they are behaving even more frugally than ever -- that is their wives are, to be more precise. Their savings are their reserve for hard times, and they expect hard times. How is increasing the money supply going to cause the Japanese to believe that the corporations that employ them will become more profitable and thus able to keep them employed?

(Thu Jun 04 1998 17:02 - ID#252391)
tsclaw - money into debt instrumentsig
The wealthly of this world did not make their money investing in gold and silver. They made their money in equities, realestate and high yields in strong curriences. If the dollar were to weaken the FeD would be open to raise rates which would attratct cash which may have left equities. The rich of the world are system conformists. The traditional move when equities drop and currency weakens is to go into higher yielding debt instruments.

I think your thoughts are clear but I wonder if its that simple. I just don't think the really rich got that way investing in gold and won't consider it with as much or as sudden a priority as you foresee.

We'll see?

(Thu Jun 04 1998 17:02 - ID#194311)
jims...chinese devaluation
would be good for gold holders in China, no?

only people who aren't experiencing rising gold prices are the yanks...price of bread hasn't gone up in kiwiland since gold took off.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 17:05 - ID#230216)
*Samuel Johnson* I right?? am I?????
what do I get? We Merkans ALWAYS want somethin'.....yup. await my prize

Aragorn III
(Thu Jun 04 1998 17:05 - ID#212323)
Tolerant...actually your magnet plan served a valuable purpose
It's better to receive an 'education' at the kind hand of a friend than through a street-rogue. I have taken steps to eliminate the tale-tell jingle through a newly adopted policy of "not more than one coin per pocket." Good luck 'picking' me out of a crowd with that magnet of yours. Too many targets, can't tell who has the rascal.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 17:06 - ID#335190)
Indonesia "All" is well @ International Banker's "FIX."
Foreign lenders and Indonesians strike debt deal

JAKARTA, Indonesia ( AP ) -- Indonesia reached a deal with international bankers Thursday to reschedule nearly $80-billion worth of foreign debts
owed by corporations badly battered by Asia's financial crisis.

Many of its largest companies and banks are technically insolvent because of a dramatic dive of around 80 per cent in the value of the currency, the rupiah, against the dollar.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 17:08 - ID#373284)
I will stick with those wacky kids that wrote The Great Reckoning. YOU CANNOT
inflate your way out of deflation. The Cure is worse than the DISEASE.

Aragorn III
(Thu Jun 04 1998 17:13 - ID#212323)
Mozel, no worries at the moment thanks to my thick skin
but in the future you might want to reconsider the advisability of sharing space on the same postcard to both reminisce with a college buddy and also deliver a fang-dripping-acid rebuke of the scoundrel who shot your family dog.


(Thu Jun 04 1998 17:18 - ID#288186)
Comex Warehouse totals/Silver comments...
COMEX Metal Warehouse Statistics for June 4

Gold 1,085,339 - 5,340 troy ounces
Silver 88,560,781 - 610,221 troy ounces
Copper 79,691 - 1,092 short tons

It may not take long for the "Silver shorts" to get jittery if
we have a few more of these Silver stock depletions. It may
remind them of when the stocks were depleting by a million ( +/- )
during the days before and after the "Buffett Silver buy"
announcement. Also, I can't imagine it taking very long for these
shorts to realize the supply/demand fundamentals are still very
valid. Go Silver!! ( And Gold too, of course! )

(Thu Jun 04 1998 17:19 - ID#373284)
The first clue...thick skin...the puzzle is begun...soon a picture of a man with no crowd surrounding him...piece by piece...

(Thu Jun 04 1998 17:22 - ID#25171)
Having a deflation in the USA would certainly mean that the same would occur in Europe. The value of the dollar would not go down versus the EURO just because we enter a deflationary era.

The Euro is not a GOLD backed currency nor will it be stricto sensu.

The closer we can get these days to a gold backed currency is the swiis FRANC which has a constitutional link to GOLD. On the other hand, the ECB will have" foreign exchange" reserves some denominated in US $ some in Yen and some in GOLD. But at any time it will be entitled to sell its GOLD to intervene in the capital markets on the relative value of the EURO. ( All GOLD reserves in regional CBs will also be callable by the ECB at any time )

A GOLD backed currency is in my opinion a currency redeemable in GOLD at a fixed parity at anytime by anyone.THAT IS NOT THE CASE

The $ will go down for other reasons ( mainly rising trade and current account deficits and maybe stock market collapse )

The next deflation if it ever comes will be particular as never in the world history such a debt orgy has developed. If a deflation occurs it will burst the financial bubble and make the huge pile of debt collapse.Then , the FED won't have any othr option than flood the world with liquidity which will eventualy prove inflationary.

inflation = inflation

deflation = inflation


(Thu Jun 04 1998 17:22 - ID#26793)
Dow/Gold Ratio = 30.24 The 50 day moving average is 29.82

(Thu Jun 04 1998 17:24 - ID#373284)
regarding silver shorts, it would destroy them if someone paid cash for his/her
silver and wanted some more of the fine metal, let's say oh 100M ounces.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 17:28 - ID#335190)
Canada & B.C Socialist's??? @ What the HELL is Russia - Indonesia - Japan. Billions SQUANDERED
American Business bible slams B.C.

VICTORIA ( CP ) -- British Columbia's flagging economy got a bad review Thursday in the Wall Street Journal, the bible of American business. The Journal told its readers "the province's economy has fallen off the rails," unemployment and bankruptcies are up and housing sales down.

The Opposition was quick to use the story against the government, handing out copies of the article. Liberal Leader Gordon Campbell said the NDP government's economic mismanagement is so notorious the "world's most respected business publication" is warning international investors about British Columbia.

The article refers to the province's socialist government led by former union leader Glen Clark. While Clark spent some time organizing for unions, he never led one.

But Campbell said that given the way Clark is being portrayed around the world, it shows he is the wrong person to be leading international sales efforts.

Clark has been jetting across North America wooing businesses such as aluminum producers, film studios and high-tech industries to come to the province.

Most recently, he's been trying to attract Quebec-based Bombardier Inc. to build a plant here by dangling the prospect of a massive contract to extend Vancouver's SkyTrain rapid-transit system.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 17:28 - ID#288295)

I agree; printing infinite quantities of money would only work in a cash-based economy. In a credit economy what you see in Japan today ( or worse ) is what you will get.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 17:28 - ID#26793)
XAU/Spot Ratio = .248 The 50 day moving average is .267. My database contains 18 XAU readings in the 72.XX range. Ranked according to the price of gold the reading today is #13. The #1 ranking was on 12/29/86 with a gold price of $389.30, an XAU of 72.99; producing a XAU/AU ratio of .187

Aragorn III
(Thu Jun 04 1998 17:29 - ID#212323)
Tol...let me make it easy on you, as I'm sure that magnet gets heavy under the hot sun
I will be the guy wondering around on the Island that is Long, asking for the whereabouts of the man with the clown nose...who has been know for his generosity in unburdening the ears of children of their gold blockages--bringing better hearing and smiles to the little ones.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 17:30 - ID#43352)
Let me say to begin with that I, like many people do not really understand
money. So I thought I would post my thoughts so that people who cared to
could educate me as to my misunderstanding. If my ramblings in this little
chautauqua should prove to be so far off the mark so as to show me to be
hopelessly beyond the point of reeducation, then I hope you will take them
for their entertainment value.

To speak of money we have to speak of value and worth and desire. The degree
to which we desire a good or a service is the degree to which it has worth to
us. It is the degree to which that object of our desire has subjective value.

We might have some desire for an apple, and an employer might have some
desire for us to perform a certain amount of useful service to him. He
might offer us an apple in return for performing some work. If we merely
traded the ultimate object of our desire, the apple, for his it would be a
simple barter system.

Not everyone likes apples or wants an apple at some particular moment
although they might want one at some future time. And employers do not want
to have to keep on hand apples, bananas, oranges, candy, toys, beads, etc.
or to have to wait around for their employees to be hungry in order to get
a task performed in a timely manner.

The employer might promise to give us an apple later when we want one, or
a banana or whatever, if only we will do an apples worth of work now. If
we do the work he is indebted to us until such time as we come to claim
and recieve our apple.

Or we might want an apple now from someone who has one, but would prefer to
have a banana instead. We could promise to give them a banana in return for
their apple and be indebted to them until such time as we discharge our

It's hard to keep track of all these promises so we could devise a simple
system of tokens to keep track of things. By trading tokens back and forth
we would be exchanging markers of indebtedness. We could use anything to
represent a given number of tokens or amount of indebtedness. Stones, shells,
ounces of gold, suitably marked pieces of paper or such. The quantity of value
that a unit of the medium of exchange represents is a unit of money.

Money can be used as a medium of exchange to facilitate the keeping of
accounts or as a medium of deferred spending ( aka savings ) .
Money has no value in of itself because it is not a material thing. The token
being used might have some underlying value becuase of the material used to
fabricate it depending upon how much one might desire it, but that is seperate
and distinct from it's money value.

At times the material worth of the token can exceed it's money worth though
it's best if it doesn't. I can remember once when US one cent pieces were
made of copper and the price of copper rose to the point that a pennies
weight of copper was worth more than the monetary value of the coin. People
would go down to the bank and get thousands of pennies and take them off
to the smelter.

We could have used apples as the medium of exchange. One apple could either
be eaten or it could be traded in for some number of bananas. The apples
real value depends upon how hungry we are, but it's money value depends
on how many bananas we can get for it.

I see debates on whether gold is money. Well, yes it has been used and still
is in many places as money.

I see debates on whether a dollar is really worth anything more than the
paper it is printed upon. Well, yes it is worth as many bananas as you can
get for it.

The problem we are faced with in the chaotic turmoil in the currencies today
is that there is no universal money. Each country maintains its own currency
system. An apple in one country can be obtained for a given number of yen
or in another country for some number of dollars.

This isn't too bad since we could more or less determine how many yen a
dollar should be converted to by seeing how many apples we can get for
a yen versus a dollar. The problem is that indebtedness can be counterfited.

Without doing any useful work or in exchange for any other good, a token
can be created. No new worth has been created. We have served only to
dilute the value of all the other tokens so as to have a piece of their
total worth here in our hand. We have robbed the holders of those other
tokens of a part of their wealth without ever having to break open a store
house or beat down a door.

Or having collected a suitable amount of tokens, we could proceed to
destroy oustanding tokens by one means or another thus increasing the
value of each of the tokens in our own carefully preserved hoard.

Since each country can value or devalue it's currency independantly of
each other country and perhaps conceal the amount by which it is doing
so it become difficult to keep track of the relative worth of one versus
another. Shrewd speculators, manipulators, and moneychangers then step in.

Eventually people get hypnotized by the action and lose sight of what's
what as the shell games are played. Soon we find that an apple is a lot
cheaper if you get it from Japan than if you get it from the US. Does an
apple suddenly lose it's worth when the currency of the country it is
in gets devalued?

No, an apple is still an apple. No matter where you ship it or what
currency you have to use to acquire it.

If one excnages their money for the goods they REALLY want as soon as
they get it it would pretty immaterial what was used as the medium of
exchange. The risk is to accumulated unspent wealth. To savings. Because
as we have seen you can be robbed of your savings no matter how strongly
you have locked the storeroom door.

And that is what has happened. Since in a world of central banks there is
no Central Bank to keep accounts square and records straight the worth of
apples in one country can be stolen away and the worth of apples in others
can be raised to unaffordable heights.

In fact with the given system it is almost unavoidable that these sort
of instablities arise. It is an unstable system.

Let's say all currencies started off at an equal level. Sooner or later
by some quirk of fate one or another economy would begin to gain on
the others or fall a little behind. Currency of the slightly more well
to do would become a bit more valued than the less fortuneate. People
would begin to trade the weaker for the stronger which would only
decrease the supply and increase the desire for the stronger which would
give the stronger an, if only temporary, unfair anvantage in economic
affairs. This would serve only to perpetuate the process.

It's not the material with which the tokens are made that is the problem.
It is the way the whole thing is managed.....

(Thu Jun 04 1998 17:31 - ID#153102)
@Freeman is Not
Freeman is a legal conditon or status. It is not the name of a group.
Slave is also a legal condition or status. A person put into slavery by force and subsequently liberated was known as a Freedman. The Freedman"s Bureau was created by Congress to help Freedmen.

In America, you choose which of these two legal conditions or statuses which you want to live in. The USE of federal reserve notes does not in and of itself determine your status. This question was settled by the US Supreme Court in Thorington v Smith. You determine your legal status as freeman or slave by the agreements you enter into, the dclarations you make, and the admissions or confessions which you make. In America you are not put into slavery by force, but until you extricate yourself by appropriate legal action from the status which you have elected for yourself, you will be held to the obligations of your slave status by force. Needless to say, Massa is happier with people who decide to live on the plantation. He employs many forms of persuasion to encourage those off the plantation to return and take up slave status again. Massa has carrots of benefits and legal and physical sticks, too.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 17:33 - ID#373284)
Then surely the death of all paper currency worldwide on a scale never before seen in history. You can not inflate out of deflation. When the dust settles...metal and full ownership of THINGS...nothing more and nothing less, and your idea ( not you specific SEQUIN, but the notion of selling ideas ) , will take a long time for them to regain the silly craze with them today.There will be so many with ideas, starving, those with the new hi-fashion money will pick through them like fish at a market. Namaste'

Aragorn III
(Thu Jun 04 1998 17:33 - ID#212323)
I found the missing "n" from my previous post...
It had fallen to the floor.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 17:34 - ID#20748)
LGB : Lora article-US News & World Report.
More smoke.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 17:38 - ID#372180)
Motorola says what Intel will say shortly...earnings very much lower!

(Thu Jun 04 1998 17:38 - ID#20748)
Loral Article

Says John Pike of the Federation of American Scientists, "It doesn't matter to us or the Chinese what part of Los Angeles gets blown up."

(Thu Jun 04 1998 17:39 - ID#373284)
SilverBaron Sir, Quite right. Namaste' Get wise, get metal !!!!
ARAGORNIII, I fear not, a man who drops his n could not be dangerous. Course, that I think of it the clown nose is not fear inspiring, Always welcome. Namaste'

(Thu Jun 04 1998 17:40 - ID#153102)
Some days I have a lot of trouble with cyber protocol. Sorry. You are exonerated of guilt by association.

I'll probably get rebuked next for referring to Afro-Canadians and be informed that in the Great White, they are Canadian-Afros.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 17:42 - ID#57232)
The Great Reckoning - Inflating out of debt?
tolerant1: I have a copy of this also. Very hard reading -- you must force yourself to read it -- I doubt I have read it all. James Earl Davidson has been bearish as long as I can remember, so his timing is not great, even if he can detect the fundamentals. Don't ever recall him being positive about the markets.

Inflating out of debt is something our government can do that we can't, because we don't have control over the money supply. If one ( USG ) does it without incurring more debt, it can work ( in principle ) because the money you owe is worth less and less, though it does not make the creditors happy, and risks collapsing the economy. But -- it does not seem to work that way as new debt always seems to be created due to the basic defective process that caused the debt problem in the first place. Eventually the interest on the debt becomes uncontrollable.

I think what will happen is that all of our attempts to prevent world financial collapse will steadily put more and more stress on our economic system, as other economies collapse around us like dominoes. The collapse will probably not be this year. Perhaps y2k. Perhaps 2010-2015, though I expect signs of trouble long before that.

It will be interesting to see how our Fed reacts to the British raising interest rates. What a surprise! Perhaps the British inflationary pressures are greater than we thought. Their economy is very much like ours. But -- on the other hand -- their currency is no longer hamstrung by being the world's currency, and they can do what they please. We can't. If we raise interest rates right now, we might as well say the last rights to the world's economic system.

I think someone very wise recently said: 'The US will not get their financial house in order until the US dollar is no longer the World's currency'. Well you know the answere to that just as well as I do. We are apparently doomed to repeat the same catastrophe that befell the British pound Sterling. It is just a matter of time.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 17:43 - ID#20748)
Loral Article

Those searching for the answer to that question are focusing on the aftermath of a 1996 Loral satellite launch on a Chinese rocket that exploded 22 seconds after takeoff. At its insurance company's request, Loral assisted China in its investigation into the failure, handing over a 200-page report without U.S. approval. Loral says it merely confirmed China's finding that the cause of the explosion was "a defective solder joint in the wiring--a 'low-tech' matter." But some news accounts suggest
Loral also offered information on missile guidance, which could help China hone its missile-launch capability.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 17:45 - ID#26793)
Gold/Silver Ratio = 55.97

(Thu Jun 04 1998 17:46 - ID#194311)
consider the following....
London LMBA has been creating paper gold DOLLARS at increasing rates for the last few years ( since the gulf war some may say ) . For sure 1500 tons in 1996 and 2000 tons in 1997. WHY?
At some point the people holding these golden dollars may want their gold. While gold is dropping in dollars they can get more gold for their dollar, right, so they don't want the gold. But what would happen when the price of gold starts to rise, really the dollar is to fall, then you would get less gold for your dollar and it is time to cash out. But hey, here's a better option put your gold dollars into gold euros and earn interest and hold value, in terms of gold.
This is what Another was saying, those who have oil in the ground have been given gold dollars but if the dollar weakens they will ask for the gold ( in the ground ) or a better deal ..give them euro gold dollars.

The euro will not be a weak currency...US Treasury boys must be figuring now if we can keep the gold market down until the euro emerges all can be shoved under the carpet by a timely stock market crash to disguise the real reason for the brutal, wholesale, global dumping of dollars.

Yes, gold may well soar in dollar terms but then will anybody trade in dollars anymore anyway? US is in for a rough ride whichever way you cut it....anybody for WAR?...happened last time US got the sulks.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 17:47 - ID#210235)
@A little birdie just told me
that Sharefin is going to be 40 when he wakes up today. I say, anyone got the candles?

(Thu Jun 04 1998 17:49 - ID#373284)
JTF - Namaste' Hmmmmmmmmm. I lent the book to a neighbor so I can not be
specific. This is roughly it maybe you remember the passage. If I told you I could cure your cancer you would be thrilled until I took you outside and shot you or something to that effect. This is how they related printing one's way out of deflation.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 17:49 - ID#228128)
APH what is your outlook on gold?

(Thu Jun 04 1998 17:55 - ID#373284)
Prometheus, Namaste' no candles, but I am a clown, red nose and all, several
balloons for the fin that shares and a most hearty HAPPY BIRTHDAY! and Tequila for all...

(Thu Jun 04 1998 17:58 - ID#72316)
Hi Tolerant !!!

here's a little something I read that makes sense to me about guns...

(Thu Jun 04 1998 18:00 - ID#57232)
Loral/China stuff
NJ,LGB: This episode was apparently summarized for Pentagon people. Apparently the report is still classified information, which is probably why Loral can deny the event ever happened. It is interesting that information like this is leaking out. Only means one thing - the monolithic support for this administration is developing large cracks -- even of the cracks are growing slowly. WJC is slowly but surely losing support within the ranks.

LGB -- I repeat my concern to you -- please make sure that nothing can be traced to you. I know from observing others that an innocent 'fall guy' can be set up without his personal knowlege. It's the way office politics often works, and the unwary can get more than they bargain for.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 18:02 - ID#187109)
*Happy B-Day*
Fin master! AGULP to ya'! ANOTHER AGULP ta boot! celebrate

(Thu Jun 04 1998 18:05 - ID#253153)
Deflation accelerating
Back in Feb 1998 the US entered the run away deflationary phase after 17 years of disinflationary phase. As time passes and deflation accelerate we will begin to see net credit contraction in our banking system which will be fueled by defaults, rising unemployment, declining real estate values and massive bankruptcies by corporations and consumers alike. Interest rates will decline and I predict that we will see
2% yield on the long bond by the end of 1999. So, if you are planning to buy a house , wait, you will be able to get a 2% mortgage next year assuming you have the capacity to pay back the loan. long term US treasury bonds ( non callable ) are a screaming buy for income . Equities
have started a long decline with declining interest rates because business activity will decline and profits will vanish. Trade war is just around the corner and as the unemployment rises the politicians will be very happy to vote for it to protect domestic jobs. The U.S dollar will be very strong and its purchasing power will rise as prices in general decline. Enough for today , more next week.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 18:08 - ID#327123)
Boy, I love this site ( thanks Bart ) .

Interesting rebutals from JIMS & SEQUIN. I'm not going to disbute what you have said, eventhough I don't aggree. I do have to pose one question however. Since when do interest rates go up in a deflationary enviornment?? Wouldn't they be lowered to stimulate growth??? I do love to learn. Your responses certainly got me to thinking and I'm sure others here also. If we keep throwing out our thoughts maybe we'll put together exactly whats coming and how to deal with it. There are definetly better minds than mine on this subject.

Aragorn III
(Thu Jun 04 1998 18:09 - ID#212323)
You put so much effort into your post that I hesitate to point at the puddles on the floor from the leaky roof. Mozel will have a field day with it, but precision on points of money are necessary due to its long history of gradual enshroudment ( new word? ) .

The point needing some gentle carpentry-work is the too-rapid conclusion that money must only represent tokens of account, needing no inherent value. Money is best when it is kept simple, and easily understood by the parties involved in the transaction. No governmental intermediary need be established to issue these tokens of account or to track their value. Money is ideally a universal item of value that can function as a medium of exchange. Because the seller is receiving something of true value, there is no place for corruption to creep in and crash the system.

And as you clearly pointed out the potential for corruption, the academic assessment must call for an adjustment that dismisses the original premise that money need merely represent tokens of account. Money MUST be value in and of itself.

Good ol' boy
(Thu Jun 04 1998 18:11 - ID#26362)
Tea leaves
For what it is worth, I spend the entire morning reading tea leaves which are probably as reliable as anything in predicting the price of gold and the world's economic direction. The tea leaves told me that gold is at a bottom so buy in boys. Just because you have had your ass handed to you everytime you have, doesn't mean that this is not for real. God never loved a coward.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 18:14 - ID#373284)
arby, Namaste'
I can't get into the link. Good grief...more else can I see this particular passage.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 18:18 - ID#288295)
Rates go up in a delationary environment, when ( as at all times ) there are more sellers than buyers. Why would there be more sellers than buyers? There are several possibilities - holders of debt ( for example foreigners, in the case of the US ) may have to liquidate debt holdings to settle their liabilities in their own currency. Or, the credit quality of the debt issuer is called into question - for the US, it would perhaps be because tax revenues fell precipitously in a deflation at the same time that its liabilities for social programs, bank bailouts, etc were rising, making the ability of the US to service the debt questionable. Or, the debt issuer could flood the market with more debt to generate liquidity. All of these situations ( and more ) could create a rising interest rate environment.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 18:20 - ID#255151)
Good ol' boy

Must be goolong tea.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 18:21 - ID#57232)
Interest rates and deflation
tsclaw: I can get the discussion going. Lets assume that one day those trillions of US dollars come back to the good 'ol USA faster than AG can stuff them somewhere. The dollar ( more precisely the treasury ) flood causes interest rates to go up. So the dollar value goes down. Massive treasury sales are likely to be associated by a foreign exodus from US investments so the markets drop too.

So we have a run on the US dollar, as well as the US markets. Rising US interest rates -- if they persist for any length of time -- are likely to cause the US investors to get cold feet, and bail out of the markets a bit later ( was about 2-3 months later in 1987 ) . So rising interest rates -- due exclusively to foreign investors selling US treasuries -- could tank the entire US economy.

What is really frightening is that the US economy could be doing just fine -- just like what happened in the 1987 crash. I think that time the 'China syndrome' or 'rollover' as it was variously called, was due to the Japanese dumping US treasuries.

There is one example. I'm sure others can think of more.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 18:29 - ID#43352)
@Aragorn III
Thank you. I can see your point and it helps me to clarify my thinking.
I guess the main thing I wanted to examine was the idea that the value
of the medium as money and it's value because of the material with which
it is made are seperate and distinct. It may well be ( and probably is ) that the material value must be of consequece to make corruption more
difficult to creep in although even when most of the world was on a
gold standard there were problems, but I think the main thing is that
whatever standard is used as money it be a single universal standard.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 18:29 - ID#176200)
@mozel@tolerant1. The people's republic of Massachusetts...
I have heard that Mass. will be adopting zero outcome based sports
for their children. just keep swinging at the ball till you hit it
type of thing. No winners, no loosers. I smell socialism here!
Chapaquidic Ted in action... Kids that are brought up like this will
be a real lot to deal with waaaaaaa!


Not speaking for my employer

(Thu Jun 04 1998 18:29 - ID#45173)
Good ol' boy: Excellent post -- it's not complicated, is it?

- Gold low, undervalued relative to previous top ( almost 1/3 of top )
- Equities high ( as measured by DOW ) , overvalued wildly relative to previous top ( 3 x previous top )
- Price of gold and DOW are contradictory
- Ratio of gold verus DOW at all-time high

- Equities will fall
- Gold will rise

Thank you.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 18:29 - ID#57232)
Pile into gold?
Good Ol' Boy: I have piled into gold twice in the last two years under similar reasoning, and lost. Other times I made a little when I was less aggressive. So far, this year and last, I have made a significant dent in hard-earn profits by being excessivly bullish on gold.

This time, my investment is very limited. I think I will wait for 'the whites of their eyes' this time -- A Brazil or mainland China event might clear the air for a while, and make me more confident. But -- I am tired of buying just before the next deflationary event, and watching my investments go the wrong way.

Make sure you keep your powder dry, as you must be nimble these days.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 18:36 - ID#176200)
Motorola taking $2B charge Cutting 15,000 jobs from workforce
Citing poor Asian conditions... Really!, Ya think!?

(Thu Jun 04 1998 18:39 - ID#45173)
Open-Loop: Ted Kennedy joke
A senatorial assistant bursts into Kennedy's office and throws a document on his desk.

"Sir. Your attention to this Abortion Bill is urgently needed."

He says, "Well... just pay it."


(Thu Jun 04 1998 18:41 - ID#45173)
Open-Loop: Motorola taking $2B charge Cutting 15,000 jobs from workforce
But... the Asia economic crisis won't effect the USA! Nah!

(Thu Jun 04 1998 18:41 - ID#57232)
Accelerating deflation
JP: Appreciate your post -- please post more. You are right to raise the possibility that the US dollar may appreciate more, rather than depreciate. That will certainly happen if we have trade wars, and the deflatioary effects of foreign goods diminish. Shades of the 20's and 30's again.

There is one problem with this scenario. This time around the world's currency is the US dollar not the pound Sterling. So the British can raise rates, but we can't. We could put the World's economy in a tailspin, and AG will not let that happen -- as long as he is at the helm.

I would be interested in your response regaring how the US dollar will appreciate without finishing what is left of the worlds economies.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 18:44 - ID#20748)
In some ways Blair is a Clinton clone but his political fortunes are not as closely tied to the stock market as those of Clinton.

There is a big difference though, under the British parliamentary system if the governing party is defeated in a no cofidence vote the government has to resign and call for a new election. So unlike Clinton, Blair cannot say he is going to ignore all critics and go on doing 'what I was elected to do'. What was elected in power there was the Labor Party, not Blair.

A rate increase by the Fed is not in the cards, on the contrary they will do their best to keep the bubble inflated for ever, that is their political mandate.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 18:46 - ID#43352)
I'm a little confused. Don't rates go up beause bond prices are going
down? Doesn't bond prices going down happen because of more people
selling bonds in return for dollars. Doesn't that mean dollars are
leaving the country in redemption for the bonds that were originally
bought in return for the dollars that came into the country?

If I am, say, a Japanese guy with some Yen and I want to get some good
old US bonds, I have to trade my Yen for Dollars. This drives the dollar
up with respect to the Yen. Dollars leave the US and Yen go into some
reserve in the US.

Next, I buy the bonds, this drives the bonds up in relation to the
dollar and rates go down. Bonds leave the US and dollars go back home.

Now the US has my yen as well as it's dollars and I have the bonds.

When I go to cash in the bonds the process goes in reverse. Bonds go
down, rates go up, yen goes up and dollar goes down.

Or is that what you said? My head hurts.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 18:47 - ID#373284)
Open-Loop this is more of the Self Esteem Programs for kids all over the
country. It makes me teaches them to be something for nothing. Namaste'

(Thu Jun 04 1998 18:49 - ID#66136)
JP, TSCLAW,ETC Motoroa expected to announce significant personnel cutbacks
tomorrow. This and others to follow play well into the deflationery theory under discussion which over the rest of the year should result in lower interest rates as gov't attempts to keep business activity at a high level. That will turn the dollar back and gold in $terms will rise. IMO new wealth will try to protect themselves using other paper vehicles rather than turn to gold just from a lack of experience and understanding. They dont even monitor dollar fluctuation as they don't relate to its impact on them. The entire picture in the commodity markets would have reverse most positively for reinflation to play out before a good taste of deflation. The deflation will be the gov't excuse for lowering interest rates and reinflating. MO watch oil and wheat for any real change in the overall commodity price picture.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 18:49 - ID#255151)
Equal Outcome Soccer in Massachussetts

Heard that score won't be kept in soccer games for kids 12 and under. HA! This is the kind of thing you would make up to be satirical. Pathetic. Absolutely F*ing pathetic.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 18:51 - ID#253153)
Deflation and interest rates
Any one who predict that interest rates will rise during deflation in my opinion is mistaken. Regardless of the amount of US treasuries sold by foreigners or domestics money needs by corporations , there will be an ARMY of domestics buyers waiting to buy long term treasury bonds. Sure, there could be temporary spikes in interest rates but the the long term trend is down as commodities , stocks and business activity decline. Even as the U.S government deficit ballons during the deflation, the private sector who's debts is much higher then the US government debt will be paying it off or default.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 18:55 - ID#45173)
Open-Loop: really old Ted Kennedy joke
Ted Kennedy, Richard Nixon, and George Bush are on an ocean cruise when the ship hits an iceburg.

Bush: "Women and children first!"
Nixon: "Screw the women and children!"
Kennedy: "Do we have time?"

(Thu Jun 04 1998 18:58 - ID#255151)

New law firm being formed by Nixon, Clinton and Ted Kennedy-- Trickem, Dickem and Dunkem.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 19:02 - ID#57232)
Bonds and dollars
gollum: I know this is confusing. I have the same problem if I think too much. Since I do not understand your logic, I will say something that may help. First -- alot of people use the terms treasuries and dollars interchangeably, and that causes alot of confusion. The only way I can get all of this straight is to reason that when a foreign person such as a Japanes buys treasuries, the US dollar gets stronger, because there is a demand for US type assets. But if that same Japanese sells treasuries, that is the same as US dollars returning to the US, and the value of the US dollar must go down ( inflationary ) . That Japanese can rightfully demand non-US dollar assets in exchange for his/her treasuries, so Japnese sales of US treasuries is inflationary, and causes interest rates to go up.

Does that help? It is easier to think of the foreign investor buying and selling treasuries with foreign assets.

The direction of US interest rates can be reasoned out depending on whether there is demand or not for US treasuries. Demand for treasuries makes interest rates go down ( scarce dollar ) , massive sales of treasuries make interest rates go up -- dollar flood -- no one wants treasuries.

Hope this helps. This is the only way I can figure this out without getting hopelessly confused. It is very easy get everything backwards.

And -- everything changes if the Fed is the cause of the interest rate change.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 19:04 - ID#43352)
If history is any guide, you are correct. In the late 20's an 30's as
that great deflation known as the depression evovled, interest rates
declined. The cost of money, as the cost of everything else, went down.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 19:06 - ID#327123)
Correct me if I'm wrong here folks. Back during Mr. Carters term as president we had runaway inflation because wages were high and goods
were being purchased almost as fast as they could make them. Few wanted for anything. Times were good. Interest rates went into the high teens. Post WWII we had stagflation. Not enough jobs to go around. You could buy a home with a 2 1/2 to 3 1/2% loan because not many had enough money to qualify for a home loan. demand on loans was down, hence interest rates on loans were down. Savings accounts were earning 1 1/2 to 2%. Back to the early 1930's. Because there was no demand for loans the interest rates were practically nil. The adverage man wasn't working hence he couldn't qualify for a loan. I realize the responses were dealing with FED funds but they equated to the loans I'm addressing. Maybe I'm missing something here.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 19:13 - ID#66136)
OLD GOLD Mergers within the mining industry. Note your week-end post where
you felt the industry should follow oil with a few major producers controling world supply so as to not be impacted by daily price movement. According to a post by Reuters " World mining is becoming more concentrated with the top 50 companies now controlling over 60 percent of Western world production as reported by the Swedish research group RMG. The Raw Materials Group said the amount spent on merger and acquisition activity jumped about 50% last year to $18.5 billion vs $12.4 in 96."
The article goes on to say the trend very much continues into 98 with over $15 billion already spent. Note the activity going on right now in RSA. IMO the result is the majors will continue to build reserves by acqisition and it will be more and more difficult for Jr's to raise capital as the big players do exploration and development internally. Cost control will be more important and better implemented in this manner. Serious money will migrate to the majors!

(Thu Jun 04 1998 19:15 - ID#57232)
Deflation, not inflation? I hope not.
JP, Gollum: JP, if you are right, heaven help us. What you are saying is that AG will not be able to inflate the dollar fast enough to at least maintain the status quo. That will finish off any other shaky economies dependent upon a stable dollar -- SEAsia all over gain. I hope for all of our sakes that you are wrong.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 19:24 - ID#43352)
Sure. That makes sense. But I think there is a subtlety here that perhaps
should be looked at a little more closely.

How should I approach this?

Think of an investor who has some cash and wants to buy some stock
because he thinks stocks are bullish. He puts down his money and
takes his paper home. He feels like he has just done the same thing
as putting his money in the bank. He feels like he is still just as
wealthy as he was when he had the cash.

He sits back and watches the market rise. So do thousands of other
investors. The press repoprts how many billions the total of all
the shares is worth.

But it is an illusion. The cash is already gone. Just as the little
colored ball has left the hand of the magician long before he shows
you it is no longer there.

If you added all the cash in all the hands of the people who issued
and sold the stock as well as the value the investors think they
have you would get a number in excess of the true amount of cash.

When the market crashes everyone wonders where did all the money go?

Sometimes, smart investors like the heads of companies use their stocks
as a surrogate for cash as when one company acquires another and pays
for it in shares of stock.

With foreign investors buying securities it gets a little more complicated, but not much. The end result is that apparent wealth is
created, but it really isn't there, and sooner or later the chickens
come home to roost.

Mr. Mick
(Thu Jun 04 1998 19:24 - ID#345321)
IMF giving Indonesia "breathing room"..................
Thursday June 4, 7:03 pm Eastern Time

TEXT-IMF statement on Indonesian debt agreements

WASHINGTON, June 4 ( Reuters ) - The following is the full text of the International Monetary
Fund's statement on Indonesia's debt agreements released by the IMF on Thursday.

IMF Management Strongly Welcomes Indonesian Debt Agreements

Michel Camdessus, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund ( IMF ) , strongly
welcomed today's agreements reached in Frankfurt between Indonesia and the Bank Steering
Committee on interbank debt, trade credit, and corporate debt. He said: ``These agreements, which
have the immediate effect of relieving the pressure on the foreign exchange market and will help to
revive international trade and economic activity, are of major importance for the Indonesian

``The corporate debt scheme provides a framework that not only reduces scheduled Indonesian
external payments over the next few years, but also gives corporations substantial initial cash flow
relief--thus providing them breathing space to recover from the current crisis. Participation is
voluntary, with restructurings--some of which will need to involve debt reduction--to be worked out
between individual corporations and their creditors. Because it reduces exchange rate uncertainty
and restructures the debt, the scheme should be attractive to both debtors and creditors,''
Camdessus said.

``An IMF staff team will conduct discussions on the second review of Indonesia's IMF stand-by
program with the Indonesian authorities in Jakarta, beginning next Monday, June 8,'' Camdessus

(Thu Jun 04 1998 19:26 - ID#253153)
JTF, In my heart I hope I'm wrong also
But the facts lead me to believe that what I have posted is correct.
This deflation can't be reversed by any politician or CB .It will run until it
exaust itself unless the federal government pays its bills in cash. So far they are paying their bills with checks.

Mr. Mick
(Thu Jun 04 1998 19:28 - ID#345321)
JP - what is our debt as a percentage of GDP?
That way I can compare my private debt to that of the federal govt.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 19:28 - ID#57232)
Inflation/Deflation -- enough to give anyone a headache!
All: There is one other item. The US dollar is strong right now because there are many countries in the world that want US assets, dollars or treasuries. When the economies of these countries recover from their troubles, they will want to sell those trillions of US assets. If, in the meanwhile AG has inflated the US dollar to keep the 'world safe from deflation', we will be in real trouble then.

So -- it is a no-win situation. If AG does not inflate the dollar now, more pegs in the tent will come out. But if he saves the world from implosion, the cost to the US will be incalculable later. That is why that wise individual ( whose name I have forgotten ) said that we must wean the world off the US dollar standard before it is too late. His message was that the US is behaving unwisely because it has enough debt problems of its own, and should not naively think it can shoulder the debt problems of the world as well. Just look at the IMF as a mini-example of that.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 19:29 - ID#43352)
What I am saying is that he can still pull things out, but he can't wait
too long because if he does he won't be able to inflate fast enough.
Like the plane in a dive there is a point of no return.

Aragorn III
(Thu Jun 04 1998 19:30 - ID#212323)
In the good old days of the American west, the value of gold was set by the miners who busted their backs to pull it from the hillsides and valleys. They knew how difficult it was to obtain, and wouldn't part with it lightly. Its value was set by the amount they would be willing to pay a bartender for a shot of whiskey, a tailor for clothes, or a baker for bread. Money came from the hills, and trickled down through the rest of the population as people either serviced the miners, or provided services to those who serviced the miners. The people with the gold money all knew how difficult it was to come by.

Things are different today. Money ( such as it is ) comes from the government. It gets created as needed, and the very existence of deficit spending undermines its value credibility. The money enters the system through salary payments to federal employees and contract payments to contractors, welfare payments ( for no work ) , etc. When DoD spends $10,000 on a single wrench, they are helping to establish the value of a dollar. Similarly when the Government pays for no work or product through various social programs, they are helping to establish the value of a dollar ( to something close to worthless ) . Money then trickles down through the rest of the population as everyone else toils to service the people who are directly on the Government dole. Restaurant owners would be well advised to set up shop near Federal buildings to capture the lunch dollar. This is the original source for money, after all.

It is clear that federal workers, government contractors, and welfare recipients are the "modern day miners", getting the gold/money directly from the source. Every dollar that everyone else uses first passed through one of their hands. Given the obscene fiscal practices of the federal government, it is no wonder that the dollar is doomed to ever be devaluated in the eyes of the public, even allowing for minor perturbations from deflation. ( What's that?! )

(Thu Jun 04 1998 19:33 - ID#228128)
Mike Stewart
You mentioned a couple of days ago that you would be willing to discuss your analysis methods in more detail if anyone was interested. I'm interested to learn more about them. Perhaps on the weekend if you get the time?

Aragorn III
(Thu Jun 04 1998 19:33 - ID#212323)
Auric your 18:20 was priceless!

(Thu Jun 04 1998 19:38 - ID#373284)
Hmmmmmm back in the 20-30 years in the US, was not the US dollar tied to
gold? Right or wrong? The dollar today is backed by confidence. Not mine.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 19:39 - ID#43352)
Yup. It's a real headache allright. The simplest terms of I can think of
to put it is:

The world is in the fix it is because the interest rates of various
countries are out of line with respect to one another.

To smooth things out they need to be brought back into proper alignment,

They got out of line to begin with because each country manages it's
own currency. Some poorly some wisely.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 19:39 - ID#244446)
And so it begins
[The following message was posted on the newsgroup:]

The 5 PM newscast of KIRO-TV ( channel 7, Seattle, a CBS affiliate ) just

had a piece a few minutes long, about a small local church whose members

just "got" Y2k. ( I missed the start. )

They are all selling their houses ( and, it sounded like, the church

building ) and moving en masse to Stevens County, Washington ( north of

Spokane ) which is a largely mountainous and forested area adjacent to

Canada that looks to be a couple of thousand square miles, with a total

population of about 29,000 mostly concentrated in a few towns.

The pastor was talking on camera about every big city having the

equivalent of the Rodney King riots or worse taking place in Y2k. Gary

North's web site ( as we all know ) was shown on

camera several times. Someone's ( ex? ) wife was upset about the whole

thing however and was likening it to a cult.

to 3 million. The anchor people did not treat it as a joking matter.

I don't have viewership information but KIRO is one of the "big three"

local network stations, with a potential viewing audience of I think 2 million.

Clive Tobin

(Thu Jun 04 1998 19:40 - ID#57232)
The case of the cash vanishing when the stock market falls
gollum: I agree with you that that is a different scenario. That is why I am nearly 100% cash right now -- probably prematurely, as usual.
What you are describing is essentially like a credit collapse, which is an especially acute form of deflation. I was considering the simpler concept of wealth flow from country to country. In the case of credit collapse, currency deflation is of little value to the poor soul who had what he thought was an asset go up in smoke.
But, to more prudent fellow who had his/her assets in cash or hard currency ( even better ) gains buying power. Hence deflation.
The deflation scenario you describe is more complex then the one I described, and very likely to happen to us -- eventually. All I can say is that when this happens, I hope all of us have parked our assets where they don't vanish in a flash. Those remaining intact assets will all of a sudden have alot more buying power than they did before the market crash.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 19:40 - ID#253153)
Mr. Mick---the issue is NOT what is the % of debt to GDP
Government debt is estimated to be 1/3 of the total private debt in the US.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 19:43 - ID#244446)
Good money driving out bad

A coin dealer in Berkeley, California ( Foster Coin, ( 510 ) 845-3015 )

came up with a flyer last week raising the ultimate question about

the fate of the financial system after Y2K. Amid some pretty

normal-looking pictures of gold coins and contact info for his shop,

he has the following ad copy:


 Gold and Silver

 are

 Year 2000 Compliant!



Rumor has it that at least one local bank sent an employee outside to

tear some of these flyers down . . .

(Thu Jun 04 1998 19:46 - ID#43352)
@Aragorn III
Eloquently put. Wouldn't modern day pirates be in there somewhere? After
all, the ease of life doled out was raised by taxing the real work done
by those who produce the real goods and farm products.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 19:47 - ID#176200)
@EJ ROTFLMBO Auric... Ditto
Never heard it! laughing so hard I can hardly type...

(Thu Jun 04 1998 19:52 - ID#43352)
I see we agree.

You know, it's ironic, but some of the greatest fortunes made in this
country were made during the most chaotic times. As the 1920's bubble
grew and people basked in new found equity, a few were shrewdly piling
up real assets.

Then the bubble burst.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 19:53 - ID#234218)
Humor (I think?)
The Clintons and VP Gore were flying in Air Force One when President Clinton looks out and says, You know, I could throw a $10,000.00 bill out the window and make one person very happy.

VP Gore says, I can throw 10 $1,000.00 bills out and make 10 times as many people happy.

Hillary says, Why not throw 100 $100.00 bills out and make a hundred people happy?

Chelsea just rolls her eyes and says, Hell, why dont I just throw you all out and make the whole world happy!!!!

(Thu Jun 04 1998 19:56 - ID#43352)
Yup, Backed by gold. But you see, all those people who could have held
on to their hard earned gold certificates decided to get even richer by
trading them in for stocks and derivatives.

The people they gave the gold to did great.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 19:58 - ID#286253)
Why Ag is down
Re: So now that things are much calmer in the silver pit and the price is down by $2/ounce, what has changed from the day of the announcement?

The price spike coughed a lot of physical into the market; that and Buffet probably has lent ( at 2-5%, why not? More than a yen will make ya. ) The lease rates have correspondingly come way back down. This market does not see forward, it only understands physical availability -- no probs unless there is zero or less.

That having been said, my Friendly Dealer tells me consignment sales to Asia are back on fire and that this should soon be reflected in the warehouse stocks. We'll see.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 20:01 - ID#254201)
Gold & Silver
IDT - Not much change. Gold is still in its last leg down. Short term it should rally to 300. Sell any rally above 300 with an objective of 280 or lower. It may take several weeks before the lows are put in. Silver on the other hand has seen its lows. If you are a trader and are willing to be moderatly aggressive I think the opportunity is there to increase your investment 10 fold by the end of the year. If someone is long from under 5.10 the objective on this first leg up is between 5.70-5.90. Shorter term we could see a short term high tomorrow around 5.35.

Aragorn III
(Thu Jun 04 1998 20:06 - ID#212323)
Taxation is just smoke and mirrors to maintain the semblance of a workable system. Deficit spending, year after year, represents the amount of money that is being created without any underlying effort ( and hence, VALUE ) .

All of the legitimate goods produced by the honest labor of farmers and miners and bakers and candlestick makers are simply chasing around the very money that can only enter the system by first paying off a federal expense. EVERYONE NEEDS TO UNDERSTAND THAT! The Govt wants its annual expenses to grow because that is the source that feeds the economy. It is a sick system! It encourages growth of the Federal Government, and everyone earns their living by servicing Federal employees.

And here is why the system cannot be unravelled...This original money must all find its way ( eventually ) back to the Federal Reserve where the USTreasury has promised to pay $11 for every $10 that they received in exchange for the T-bills that brought the dollars into existence.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 20:06 - ID#57232)
I agree
gollum: As I remember, during the end of the 20's, the wealth of the US was highly concentrated in the hands of a few ( who apparently were not all aware of what was coming ) . After the crash and recovery, the wealth of the US was more equitably distributed ( the Jini index, I think it is called ) .

Now, the wealth of the US is again concentrated in the hands of a few, and the wealth is about to be redistributed once again. Lets hope that this time our collective memories are better, and we do not repeat the same mistakes all over again ad infinitum. One step in the right direction will be to stop trying to eliminate the business cycles. All that does is delay the cleansing action of these cycles so that the pain is excruciating, instead of just uncomfortable.

I wish I was not convinced that this depression will be much harder on us than the last one. There will be much civil unrest, at the very least.

The only positive sign I see is the remarably peaceful process in Indonesia -- so far. Also one very positive sign is that we live in an information revolution -- equal in significance to the industrial revolution, when there was much turmoil as well. It's the best of times, the worst of times....

(Thu Jun 04 1998 20:06 - ID#286253)
Re: Krugman says reflate -- Here is the original paper that has been causing all the fuss.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 20:11 - ID#210235)
@Gollum - BRABO! your 19:24 says what is so hard to grasp
that there are millions of folks invested who haven't a clue. The money is already gone. So simple, but so darned hard to see!

Except on the balance sheet of the stock purchaser, who then borrows from the bank against it, and so it goes. That's why asset deflations can hit so hard and fast, and leave people so stunned.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 20:13 - ID#373284)
score a goal, no good, keep swinging till you hit it the ball be sensitive, do not
offend anyone, self esteem trophies for nothing...yup...if I wanted to destroy the US from the inside out, I wonder, Hmmmmmmmmmmm...and then have an outside army attack them that has been eating raw goat and rice, Hmmmmmmmm...nah. Ex-wives worried about cults of terrified y2k fearing people.

Ya just gotta love this...this...hey...wait a minute...what country is this...

Bully Beef
(Thu Jun 04 1998 20:18 - ID#259261)
Holed up with the gold in Jackson. Require antidote for Acidic and Venom condition.
Remind me to attack AragonIII for his association. P.S. ... Sorry about the dog. It took five arrows and pounds of back bacon. Thick skin... you know? Look forward to making money on gold if it ever goes up. Will suppliment my government pension.Well off to fry other fish. Bon soir!

(Thu Jun 04 1998 20:19 - ID#43352)
Alas, I am afraid these major cycles take some three score and ten or
more to repeat and most the collective memories are in the cold cold

(Thu Jun 04 1998 20:23 - ID#43352)
Yup. It's like a parlor trick. By the time they tell you you are
about to lose it it's already long gone. You are left mystified.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 20:28 - ID#43352)
You bring up another good point. The bank that loaned the assets
also believes there is real collateral behind it. In a really good
deflation it's not just the stockholders who find that Poof! theres
nothing there. It's also banks, brokerage houses, and people who thought
they were hedged.

Aragorn III
(Thu Jun 04 1998 20:32 - ID#212323)
...and it continues...
If it ever came about, during an actual deflation, how many Federal employees do you think would be laid off?

A: Exactly...none.

The money contraction truly sets in as a result of the fractional reserve lending practices of our banking system. Through repetition of the lending process, banks have temporarily increased the money supply in the economy by as much as nine dollars for every one original dollar put on deposit. As Ma and Pa farmer, miner, butcher, baker, and FACTORY WORKER comes up against hard times through loss of a job or income reduction, they default on their loan payments. Each dollar that vanishes in the fraction reserve lending chain could potentially result in up to nine other dollars in outstanding loans being called in by the bank. As these borrowers would likely default also, the money circulating in the economy suddenly dries up very quickly.

Now allow yourself to think about things for a while...

(Thu Jun 04 1998 20:33 - ID#255151)
Aragorn III

Doin' me duty for Gold and Kitco!: ) BTW, there is a town in NZ called Dunadin ( sp? ) . Big fan of LOTR.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 20:33 - ID#300202)
U.S. Consitution
Ref: Free Republic web site- Go 2 "Clinton's Latest EO Hits U Jun 14."

(Thu Jun 04 1998 20:34 - ID#210235)
@PC Sports (T1)
My eldest son played PC basketball in first grade. He stole the ball from the other team ( he was small but fast ) , and the ref took it away and gave it back to the other team. Never played team sports again, but his black belt certificate from Korea graces the wall, and he's already a die-hard libertarian.

The kids learn young, they survive.

Aragorn III
(Thu Jun 04 1998 20:38 - ID#212323)
Bully beef...huh? wha?
All I can say is that it is a shame to see good back bacon wasted on a dog's indiscriminate palate.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 20:42 - ID#253418)
APH how do I make 10X..
my money in silver by year's end. What level of leverage do I have to use. Your projecttion of a rise in silver I would presume to above $8 whil gold falls seems at odds with the nomral relationship, especially sincethe talk in deflation. Perhaps what you see is a rally in gold and silver, then a decline in gold and silver as gold completes its fifth wave then a rally in both with silver much stronger. Is this the happy senaorio??

More please...

Aragorn III
(Thu Jun 04 1998 20:42 - ID#212323) am I
A friend of mine of twenty years or more calls me Dunadan. Big shoes to fill, those.
Let me know if you ever encounter Arwen II, I've been looking for her for many a year now.

Aragorn III
(Thu Jun 04 1998 20:47 - ID#212323)
Jims...your " Is this the happy senaorio?"
the Happy Sena-orio? Is that Japan's answer to Nabisco's Oreo cookie?

(Thu Jun 04 1998 20:48 - ID#287186)
Question to wise ones from humble scribe
How much money is there in the world? A WAG at world value for either M1 or M2 to the nearest ten trillion in US$ would be close enough. How could a return to a Gold standard cover that much money?

Aragorn III
(Thu Jun 04 1998 20:49 - ID#212323) pull heroes out of meatgrinders...
and to extinguish small fires...

(Thu Jun 04 1998 20:53 - ID#43352)
seems familiar somehow
Here's a commnet arising in Merrie Auld England out of today's raising
of interest rates:

At the Liberal Democrat party, Britain's third largest, lawmaker Edward
Davey accused Brown of creating ``the Jekyll and Hyde economy -- a
booming consumer sector and a busting manufacturing sector.''

(Thu Jun 04 1998 20:54 - ID#286230)
Bre-X Pres dies
Where are the conspiracy theorists when you need them:::

Aragorn III
(Thu Jun 04 1998 20:54 - ID#212323)
The second part of your question is so easy I will attend to it before I go. You simply re-value gold by dividing the government's physical reserves into the amount of outstanding debt-currency. ( Personally, when it comes to this, I would rather have gold in my pocket in advance...the exchange rate is MUCH more favorable that way )

First question...anyone with a Wall Street Journal out there? Look up M1 and M2 please.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 20:59 - ID#187109)
*More Presidential Jokes*
Tol#1 will love this one......


Jerry Falwell was seated next to President Clinton on a recent flight. After

the plane was airborne, the flight attendant came around for drink orders.

The President asked for a whisky & soda, and the flight attendant asked

Rev.Falwell if he would also like a drink.

The minister replied in disgust, "Ma'am, I'd rather be savagely raped by a

brazen whore than let liquor touch these lips!"

The President then handed his drink back to the attendant and said, "I'm

sorry, I didn't know there was a choice..."


go silver........AWAY ( ! )


(Thu Jun 04 1998 20:59 - ID#373284)
WHAT! I shall refrain...Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm...NAMASTE'

(Thu Jun 04 1998 21:01 - ID#217268)
Can you walk me through once I am at the home page of Free Republic to access the referenced article ? My surfing skills are B-. Thanks.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 21:02 - ID#43352)
Some men in black suits and sunglasses came and drove them away in
a long dark limosine.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 21:03 - ID#300202)
David Walsh-Shud I Hang My Head In Sorrow????
My Precious lost $8000 in 2 days. I really do feel for him.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 21:06 - ID#300202)
Go to best 20

(Thu Jun 04 1998 21:06 - ID#255151)
Gollum--International Yield Curves

Including Merry Olde England-- This has yield curves in table format for US, Britain, Germany, France, and Italy. Britain's yield curve is extremely inverted. Any thoughts?

(Thu Jun 04 1998 21:06 - ID#253418)
I'm missing the plot
Why will silver rally???? Oh yes I know the supply demand stuff and WB can't be wrong after all he holds all that COKE stock which has a pe of 40+ with the expectation of falling earnings.

Why is silver going to rally -oh yes the shorts will suddenly cover and zooooom up we'll go. Why will they cover???? Becasue of increased demand -from where, because of inflation, from where, because of falling stocks ,there's plenty hidden , because of deflation - I don't think so....

Missing the plot here.....

(Thu Jun 04 1998 21:09 - ID#287186)
Just want to make sure of question
Thanks, Aragorn III.
I used to get the WSJ - gave all my old copies to a friend. I can find M1 or M2 for the US in a recent issue of Business Week. The Economist gives % changes in various Ms for a 15 countries. What I must have missed somewhere is the M1 & M2 values for the whole WORLD. Obviously I am trying to compare that to total stocks of GOLD in the WORLD. Course if a fair percentage of the outstanding money in the WORLD just burned up in a fire then GOLD would not have to cover so much.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 21:09 - ID#410215)
..... Who Got De Dough? .....

JTF wrote: "Now, the wealth of the US is again concentrated in the hands of a few.."

From whence this statistic? Everything I have read adds up to more rich folks than ever before....... In the western world at least.

Also, I told you: It was LGB who personally shipped the missile technology to China. He had a dickens of a time getting it out as there was a raging storm at the time. After shutting down the perimeter fence and cramming all the technology in the trunk, he took off willy-nilly down the dirt road - which was rapidly turning into a mud road. When he reached a fork in the road, the sign was knocked down and he crashed his car and while he was winching it out of a waterfall, a curious and hungry dinosaur thingie with this fan-like ring of flesh around his head almost ate LGB up - but he will be back for the sequel ....... ( LGB that is, not the diny )


(Thu Jun 04 1998 21:10 - ID#288295)
Normal relationship?? Look at the gold/silver ratio - I see 5 Elliott waves down ( ending at silver's high ) , and now the ratio has climbed back up 3 waves and is stalling near the down-trend channel. The next 5 waves down could be a barn-burner! If I read this pattern correctly, a money-making technique would be to go long silver, short gold in the same dollar entry amount. How much money you could make is dependant on your margin leverage. BTW the long-term 'normal' relationship of gold price to silver price is below 20. Now it is about 55 or ratio is at

(Thu Jun 04 1998 21:11 - ID#411112)
pyramid...heres a URL on the subject,however Free Republic is a great page lots of info

(Thu Jun 04 1998 21:13 - ID#187109)


Predator8-boy......when are you casting off......ahoy matey.



(Thu Jun 04 1998 21:20 - ID#187109)
There is a slight but decent explanation of direction of POS in URL I just posted. Silver wants to go up but there are PLENTY of sellers when it hits a certain range. This could be much more technical than funnymental.........btw, I just got some hop leaf and yeast and good grains for a nice Sierra Nevada. Have you had a chance to try the Sierra Nevada? Pretty good.......yummy ( ! ) boil wort


(Thu Jun 04 1998 21:21 - ID#413195)
in sack-o-tomatoes
Aragon: For money supply try this url

Auric: Goolong crack was a classic!

(Thu Jun 04 1998 21:22 - ID#255151)
Summary Of Yield Curves

US--Pretty much flat. Short end around 5.2%,
long end 5.8%. Germany and France--short end 4%, long 5.5%. Britain--short end 7%, long end 5.5%. Japan--short end 0%, long end not much higher. In other words, it's gone flat line.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 21:24 - ID#411112)
Heres a URL its the EO Clinton signed in England,it takes effect on 14 June this is no joke

(Thu Jun 04 1998 21:27 - ID#411112)
Sorry screwed up again

Crystal Ball
(Thu Jun 04 1998 21:32 - ID#287375)
Check this out

XAU and the golds look like they will wallow in deep doo-doo intermediate term ( weekly ) right along with Dow/SP500, although a bounce is probably in the cards short term ( daily ) ; however, bottom fishing looks like it could be profitable in SSRIF ( SSO on Canadian mkts ) . Caveat emptor

(Thu Jun 04 1998 21:32 - ID#288295)
Ron (in Sack of Teenie Beanies)
The wife unloaded about 1/3 of her TBBs today for $10 a pop....400% ++ in a week....makes us gold/silver chumps look pretty bad, eh? Too bad she didn't sell them all - next week probably $15 a pop....or zero. ( ;^ ) )

(Thu Jun 04 1998 21:35 - ID#31867)
Priceless...I am still chuckling...Namaste'

(Thu Jun 04 1998 21:37 - ID#255151)

IMF=International M*er F*ers.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 21:42 - ID#210235)
Don't you just hate when that happens? You post a URL and later discover you missed something. Press the PREVIEW comment before posting button, and in the preview, you can test the URL and send it on if it works, go back and fix it if there's a problem. One of the nicer features of this software.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 21:42 - ID#342376)
A comment from the Veneroso Camp just posted on S.I. thread.
To me it is very, very clear and obvious ( watch this one be blown against me into smithereens ) . Everyone is short, Gartman, Armstrong, and just about everyone else has the world panicked in anticipation of total deflation and Russian gold dishoarding. A re-released Swiss gold story kindled more short selling. The specs on Comex and the much larger OTC market are now mega short.
I believe this is a classic set up Before yesterday"s N. Y. opening somebody paid $3 over our close. It was not a spec. They are selling. Somebody has wind of something and wanted to cover at any short term price. The last two days, the specs have tried to bury gold and the trade is covering. Look out above.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 21:44 - ID#31867)
You are being far too kind.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 21:45 - ID#43352)
I dunno. It kind of looks like with the recent rate hike, the concensus
is that the current rates cannot persist very long. THis makes for more
of a demand to lock in good rates long term over short term. This means
those wishing to raise short term funds have to offer more.
Basicaly then, I would have to say they are predicting a slowdown.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 21:46 - ID#413195)
Silverbaron: Holy cow! Ten bucks a pop. Tuesday, folks were peddling 'em for $4 to $6 each on alt.collecting.beanie-babies. Haven't checked with, yet.

Wife loves rubbing it in re: gold. Can't say anything to her, either. Afraid she'll find out how much I've really lost . . .

Go plat! Go Gold! Die beanies, die!

God, I hate those things. I've eaten so many burgers lately, I'm surprised I haven't keeled over with the BIG ONE already.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 21:51 - ID#43352)
The afternoon ( and now morning too ) goblin has gone on vacation these
last couple of days too. Fire in the hole!

(Thu Jun 04 1998 21:51 - ID#288295)
Ron(@ TBB)

And even worse, the she sold them to a dealer, who was moving them out the door for $15 each! I don't even eat burgers, but my freezer is jammed with McDonalds OJ, pancakes, ice cream name it - I hope to NEVER have to eat that junk again.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 21:54 - ID#43352)
beanie babies?
does anyone remember when the cabbage patch doll craze was? what did the
markets do then? This may be some kind of indicator.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 21:55 - ID#31867)
What I like about all the pigs in history like the Coward Erect. NOTHING.
OH I AM DOING THE WORK OF THE PEOPLE. This bum never had a real job!!!

(Thu Jun 04 1998 21:56 - ID#255151)

Agree about the slowdown. As you know, when yield curves invert, it usually means a recession is coming. At least Economics 101 maintains this opinion. Britain has had an inverted yield curve for several months now. Are we in a new paradigm now, where such things as yield curve inversions no longer matter?

(Thu Jun 04 1998 22:02 - ID#31867)
AND ONE MORE THING while I am covering one of my two favorite topics. I
would like to know what is up with all the Erect Orders he keeps signing. I would think a man who is doing the work of the people would TELL THE PEOPLE...ALL THE PEOPLE...what all these orders mean...

(Thu Jun 04 1998 22:02 - ID#284255)
Try this for Market Gauge:
It is a great site.

Thanks for the b/day wishes.

Email chatter:
Highlights of Bill Seidman Interview on CNBC: "BANKING SYSTEM IS NOT THE MAIN PROBLEM IN Y2K". Banks are heavily burdened by regulatory requirements to get ready, lots of other industries aren't. There will be problems, but I don't think banks will be in the centre of it. Most smaller companies really haven't got into this yet, and of course our own company Ge has been on it forever . Smaller companies thought it could be fixed rather easily so I think major companies like our Ge are really on it but get to the lower bracket, that is where the troubles will be and the interface between various companies is another thing, they are testing their own systems but not testing interface with other companies. INVESTMENTS IN THE MARKET WILL BE MADE AS PART OF SOCIAL SECURITY PENSIONS. I think we are going to see some changes much more quickly than I would have thought a year ago. Congress is really beginning to think that people ought to be able to put some of their Social Security into the market place and JUST WHEN THE MARKET DECIDES IT MIGHT EASE OFF, WE WILL GET SOCIAL SECURITY MONEY TO HELP US OUT. Question: Why isn't more attention being paid to this by the mass media? Answer: As we get close to the end of this year, you will see more and more about it. The real problem is no one know the status of the overall economy regarding the y2k problem. It is hard to write an article when you don't have facts and there aren't a lot of facts right now. The banking industry is one where we do have some of the facts. It is a huge problem and there is no doubt about that. Japanese are creating money and lending to banks at a very low rate so banks can buy our bonds and a much higher rate. This is holding up the banking system in Japan. As far as selling in the market place, we aren't selling much. I do not see legs that will move this market higher this year.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 22:05 - ID#284255)
Email chatter
Wall Street is the only place people ride to in a Rolls-Royce to get advice from people who take the subway. -Warren Buffett, New York Newsday

As the Fed itself says: "There is no means of knowing beyond question how far this recent rise in stock prices represents excessive speculation
and how far a readjustment of values to increased industrial efficiency [ . . . ] and larger profits."

Actually, it was not Alan Greenspan who said that. This is an extract from the Fed's minutes exactly 70 years ago, in 1928, on the eve of the Wall Street crash.

Bill Seidman was just on CNBC. one thing he said was that congress seriously looking at putting SS into the market, so just as market cools down, we will have that money to go in. He did not say maybe but WILL HAVE.
Later on tonight on Brokaw news he said that is seemed likely that SS was going to be put into the market, that it was deemed a good idea. these markets are going to be kept us hell or high water.
One gold bullet will kill a million paper tigers!
This really gives new meaning to MFN status ( Most favored nation trading )
China accused of selling human organs
WASHINGTON, June 4 - On the ninth anniversary of the Tiananmen Square massacre, a House committee ( Thursday )
heard allegations of a different type of human rights abuse: reports that the government is selling organs harvested from
condemned prisoners. China denies the charges, but one witness said he traveled to China and paid more than $100,000 for a
kidney the doctors later told him had come from a prisoner who was executed later the same day.
You are right, there is a lot of paper chasing crap right now. I think the markets are in for a fall. Kind of like Humpty-Dumpty!

(Thu Jun 04 1998 22:06 - ID#284255)
Global Intelligence Update
Fears of a North Korean Nuclear Program

According to a report in the Japanese business daily "Nihon Keizai Shimbun"
on Wednesday, June 3, Japan's Defense Agency has determined "there is a
possibility North Korea may have at least one nuclear weapon," and
Pyongyang may be driven by the recent Indian and Pakistani nuclear tests to
restart its nuclear weapons program. The newspaper cited analysis from a
Defense Agency internal document which suggested that South Korea may
attempt to develop its own nuclear arsenal if North Korea obtains nuclear
arms. Seoul has expressed concern that, while the situation is already
grim, if China resumes nuclear testing, then North Korea may back out of
the Geneva deal. The Japanese Defense Agency document reportedly outlined
three potential nuclear flashpoints, including the Middle East, the Korean
Peninsula, and India versus China.

Despite fears that North Korea may obtain assistance for its nuclear
program from Pakistan, Japanese Vice Foreign Minister Shunji Yanai said on
Monday that Japan did not yet have evidence of such technology transfer.
According to Japan, Pakistan is second only to China among Asian nations in
support for North Korea. Yanai said that Tokyo would cooperate with
Washington in blocking cooperation between Pakistan and North Korea on
nuclear weapons development.

On Wednesday, the press secretary for Russian Atomic Energy Minister
Yevgenii Adamov asserted that experts at the Atomic Energy Ministry
"believe that North Korea does not have nuclear weapons." In an interview
with the ITAR-TASS news agency, Georgii Kaurov claimed that "if North Korea
did have a nuclear bomb, it would have to have been tested," and there was
no evidence of this or any other development work having occurred. He said
that Russian experts are continuing to closely monitor the situation in
North Korea. Russia and its predecessor, the Soviet Union, have assisted
North Korea in developing nuclear power for civilian use, but deny
assisting Pyongyang in developing nuclear weapons.

Fears of North Korea's nuclear aspirations overshadowed talks in New York
this week about international funding of safer nuclear reactors in that
country. The three main members of the Korean peninsula Energy Development
Organization ( KEDO ) , the U.S., Japan, and South Korea, as well as European
Union representatives were unable to reach an agreement over how the
program would be funded, and are scheduled to meet again on the issue in
late June.

Without a direct arms transfer from Pakistan or another partner--that is to
say, the purchase of a finished weapon rather than a transfer of
technology--any North Korean nuclear weapons program should be quickly
recognizable. However, North Korea isn't the only country eager to obtain
nuclear weapons assistance from Pakistan, and Pyongyang has something to
offer in return--surface to surface missiles. While it is our position
that the nuclear genie is, in all but the most extreme cases of national
survival, generally overrated, it is nevertheless out of the bottle. The
specter of the insertion of nuclear weapons into the nearly half-century
old Korean standoff, while it neither increases nor decreases the threat of
war, certainly complicates the peninsula's already tenuous negotiations.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 22:07 - ID#31867)
and one more huge HAPPY BIRTHDAY GULP...
to the FIN that SHARES...NAMASTE'

(Thu Jun 04 1998 22:07 - ID#411112)
Prometheus....Yeah,yeah..I have not overcome the habit of the finger acting before the brain...used
to be my Clinton,but age has taken care of that.......

(Thu Jun 04 1998 22:09 - ID#327123)
I forgot to mention that Harmony wants to add 45,000,000 common shares to their existing 75,000,000. That is going to be voted on at the meeting.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 22:10 - ID#254201)
jims - I posted my chart from May 30, we can use that as a guide. Remember this is all hypothetical. Someone doing this would have to be willing to go short as well as long, be risk adverse and be willing to be totally margined up and not concerned about commissions since you may have to probe the market several times to find the highs and lows.

Assume an account size of $ 10,000, silver margin of $ 3,000 per 5,000-oz contract.
If you have been following my posts you would be long at 5.10 or lower, start with 2 contracts. You would have been able to ride the correction down to 4.92 without a margin calls.

Start $ 10,000 2 contracts @ 5.10 ( margin req. $6,000 )

A move from 5.10 to 5.70 = $ 6,000 account balance $ 16,000

Short 2 contracts at 5.70

A move from 5.70 to 5.25 = $ 4,500 $ 20,500

Long 3 contracts at 5.25

A move from 5.25 to 6.40 = $17,250 $37,500

Short 3 contracts at 6.40

A move from 6.40 to 5.75 = $ 9,750 $ 47,250

Long 7 contracts at 5.75 ( at this point margins will probably increase to $ 3,500. )

A move from 5.75 to 7.10 = $ 47,250 $ 95,000

All these prices would adjust as the market moves, but the pattern should be close. Each position uses approximately double margins. In order for this to work one would have to block out any reasons why the market is moving up or down and focus on the price patterns and have total belief in what the charts are saying.

I heard a guy on the tube, he said trading was like playing a piano. You need two hands. One hand is fundamental and that hand tells you what to buy or sell. The other hand is technical and tells you when and where to buy or sell. Silver is the piano.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 22:11 - ID#43352)
I don't think so. The Brits are predicting recession and have for some
time now. In fact things have been slowing noticeably in the
manufacturing sectors for some time now also. There is some consternation
in economic circles over there because the BOE either can't see it or
has gone crazy and raised rates.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 22:12 - ID#284255)
The End of the World as We Know It?>
Some good stories here:
Rate increase condemned
Interest rate rise shocks City
Russia bank rate slashes
Brown barred from Euro club
Indonesia clinches debt deal
Shoppers stay at home
Russian markets recover as confidence returns
Why the Russian domino can threaten Europe's markets
Russia's crisis: foreign-made or homegrown?

(Thu Jun 04 1998 22:12 - ID#45173)
Gollum: here's another take on the deflation thing
My 87 year old uncle told me recently that the house his family paid $100,000 for in 1927 sold for $20,000 in 1937. Cash necessities like food deflate slowly while items purchased with debt deflate rapidly. Let's imagine some prices of things post inflation and see what's plausible.

Item------1998 Price-----Post-deflation price
1 oz gold-----$300----------$400
Dinner for 2---$50-----------$10

Etc. Do these relative prices make sense? What can be added to fill in the picture?

According to the above table, in 1998 you can buy a car with 67 oz of gold. After deflation, you can buy the same car with 10 oz gold. While gold in dollar terms increases only 25%, it increases 600% in buying power. Does this hold up?


(Thu Jun 04 1998 22:13 - ID#57232)
The Jini Index -- wealth now owned by the few
RJ: This is from 'The Great Wave' by David Hackett Fisher, 1996, Oxford University Press, page 299.

The Jini index is 0.00 when wealth is evenly distributed, and 1.0 when the wealth is in the hands of the few. This index was at its lowest at 0.5 between 1690 and 1780. Mozel will get a kick out of that. Around 1800, it started to rise, and peaked in 1900 at 0.9. I guess this was the effect of the industrial revolution. It dropped slightly from 1900-1930, and then dropped to about 0.75 in 1960. That was the time when the US middle class was at its wealthiest. Unfortunately, it has been rising ever since, and the last data point on the curve seems to be about 1995 when it reached about 0.92, which is above the Jini index for the 1930's.

I cannot get you the Jini index after 1995 on short notice, but Donald probably knows. As I recall it is still going up.

Hope this answers your question. I appreciate your encouraging me to look this up, since I did not know how far we were from the wealth of our colonial days when so many of us worked off the land. Also, I was surprised to find out that the disparity between wealthy and poor is even greater than it was before the great depression.

Another interesting point I did not know -- the Jini index did not drop right after the great depression. It was not until after WWII that the wealth of the American middle class began to rise. I don't know what we were doing then, but it would be worthwhile to see what was so special about that time. It wasn't LBJ's 'great society'.

Why is this important? History has shown that wealth concentrated in the few is unstable. The strongest economies are ones that are broad, where the wealth is fairly evenly distributed. Think about our welfare society as the extreme example. How many of them know how to be self-sufficient, and wealth-producing, again complements of our 'great society'?.

Now -- the way I interpret this is that our current economic system encourages the confiscation of wealth from the many -- taxes, fiat currency loans, etc. Our creeping socialism is a major cause of this inequality. The average American is at the mercy of the taxation methods of our indebted government, whereas the large corporations and the superwealthy can move their assets around the world at will. The response of our government to a decreasing tax base will be to raise taxes for the less mobile of us who are left behind, this raising the Jini index even more.

I think this is also why there is so much unofficial trade going on in rural areas in the US -- as the taxation levels ( and other regulatory rules ) have reached the point where the rural less affluent find this advantageous, to the annoyance of our IRS. This bartering will increase with time as the tax base continues to diminish.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 22:15 - ID#43352)
Maybe he's like General Bullmoose and feels like whats good for BC is
good for the people so that in doing what's good for BC he is in
actuality doing what's good for the people.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 22:16 - ID#255151)
sharefin--Wm Seidman

Always thought Bill Seidman was a straight shooter. Bet he sobered up a few of those who think US banks are ready for Y2K. Appreciate the optimistic assessments of Y2K here, but the more you learn about this thing, the worse it looks.

trader ed
(Thu Jun 04 1998 22:17 - ID#373349)
Y2K problem and institutional preparations
I talked with the manager of the credit union where we keep our household account, ( a small three branch credit union, ) and she told me that she had received a memo from the head office that they were now Y2K compliant, and would be testing their system all summer.
The president of the small four branch bank where we keep our rental property account says that they will be compliant in July, and have started testing the parts of the system which are now ready.
My State Farm Insurance agent told me that he had received an e-mail from the head office, and that State Farm is compliant.
A major concern to me is the question, "How are the major mutual funds coming in their Y2K efforts?" We have the major portion of our liquid assets in mutual fund money market accounts.
Does anyone have info on mutual fund Y2K progress?

(Thu Jun 04 1998 22:18 - ID#284255)
Sorry about blowing out the margins - blame it on the stollies

(Thu Jun 04 1998 22:26 - ID#284255)
trader ed
There's plenty to read here: - on a daily basis

SEC approves credit card sales

(Thu Jun 04 1998 22:27 - ID#411112)
Trader ed...telling you is one thing and putting it in writing is something else

ask them for something written that they are Y2K compliant.......don't hold your breath

(Thu Jun 04 1998 22:32 - ID#255151)

If Britain is heading into recession and getting worse, what effect, if any, does that have on Gold and the US$?

(Thu Jun 04 1998 22:35 - ID#43352)
As I recall, the price of gold back in the 20's and 30's was fixed
in terms of dollars, so when the prices of everything dropped in terms
of dollars the buying power of an oz of gold went up considerably.
It really doesn't matter what number of dollars a person says an oz
of gold is worth, it's its buying power that is important. I wouldn't
mind if the price of an oz of gold was cut in half to $150 an oz if
the price of everything else went down tenfold. In a deflation the
price of darn near everything drops but if you are holding whatever
drops the least you are king.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 22:36 - ID#432157)
Robnoel -------- EO Clinton June 14/98 is MISSING ???????

(Thu Jun 04 1998 22:37 - ID#27341)
Thanks ALL- bloody good reading, Happy birthday too, Trickem, Dickem, Dunkem, HA.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 22:39 - ID#31867)
Gollum, Namaste'
He does have that if one ACTS like God enough times, he believes he will become God...look in his eyes...

(Thu Jun 04 1998 22:39 - ID#413109)
From what I'm reading in these here posts, I see the subject will be
discussed and discussed, so FWIW, permit me to repeat my often stated
comments from the beginning of my posts well over a year ago-----
Be prepared for a period that will start as a recession, turn into
a depression, accompanied by inflation that will turn into hyper-inflation. In other words an INFLATIONARY DEPRESSION.

Sounds contradictory??? It isn't. It's happened before, and it appears
to be on the threshold of when we'll experience it again. Sad but true.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 22:40 - ID#413195)
Just checked and species C. patch offered for anywhere from $60 to $150 each with few bidders. Orig I believe they were about $30. Expect TBBs to do much worse long term as 240 million copies of any item don't make very good collectibles. And good riddance to this crowd of irrational specs ( Silverbaron's wife and my wife excepted, of course ) . They give speculation a bad name.

All: FYI, They're auctioning off some gold coins at . Don't know if the asking prices are reasonable, though, as I don't follow coins. To see what's offered, just click on coins, then search the coin page on 'gold.'

(Thu Jun 04 1998 22:40 - ID#411112)
geoff...its there its the post above I screwed up the first URL


(Thu Jun 04 1998 22:44 - ID#43352)
One more country going down means our turn that much closer and that
much more assured.

Despite the negative sentiment toward the BOE by beleagured business men
over there, I think they, like the Russians, did the right thing. Raising
rates may put the economy into a dive but it keeps the flight capital
from all rushing to the US as the UK economy goes down. Look what
happened to the Japanese who lowered rates all the way down into the
liquidity swamp they are in now. The BOE votes to get it over with and
get on with it. They will recover faster and be in great shape before
we get through getting out of ours.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 22:46 - ID#43460)
I was wondering, would you mind posting a sprinkling of old s&P 500 charts, together with a new one? Maybe a day each from October, December, February, April, June? Thanks.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 22:47 - ID#263184)
Anyone: I see RANGY is now below $1
Is there any news in the past week or so to account for the weakness or did it just follow the market down?

(Thu Jun 04 1998 22:47 - ID#43352)
Seems to me that way back before Adam and Eve someone else tried that
approach anf got banished.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 22:48 - ID#31867)

(Thu Jun 04 1998 22:49 - ID#93199)
Fidelity Select Gold Chart
Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious Metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )

Fidelity Select Energy & Energy Service Chart

Fidelity Select Computers, Electronics & Software Chart

(Thu Jun 04 1998 22:49 - ID#270235)
Reify: It's happening right now!
Asia is a current inflationary depression. It's a precursor of what
will happen here.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 22:50 - ID#255151)
Reify @ 22:39

The flattening and inversion of international yield curves is predicting recession. If we are indeed in an overinflated bubble, then a recession might trigger the events outlined in your post, including frantic reflation efforts.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 22:51 - ID#43352)
Oh my yes, inflationary depression happen often, well fairly often, in
recorded history. The post WW I German hyperinflation for example that
eventually led to Hitler's rise.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 22:51 - ID#287186)
Some folks never did trust computers and the rest of hi-powered technology
"An entertaining new book on theories of the apocalypse, "Living at the End of the World" by Marina Benjamin, points out that in America today, hundreds of thousand of people believe that technology is about to destroy us."
Sharefin, an above excerpt from your world's end url may be a joke to us but not to those who figure they are "victims" of technology. Here we go again with another victim's group looking for vengeance. When a bunch of silver-tongued fear-mongers whip up those who just lost everything to failure of technology and computers then woe be to those who had any part in foisting that devil upon the world.
Inquisitor: "Did you have anything to do with computers?"
Prisoner: "No, no, never did, not me."
Inquisitor: "Why did you have this Apple II in your house?"
Prisoner: "I was just using it as a doorstop."
Prisoner's kid: "We played games on it."
Inquisitor: "Take them both to the stockade."
Inquisitor: "Execution will be at sunrise."

(Thu Jun 04 1998 22:54 - ID#43460)
themissinglink re silver clay (PMC)
You know, the more I think about it the more I wonder. That stuff would be proprietary or patented? Metallurgists must have played with sintering for 10,000 years. After all, it's just metal sawdust screened for size and with some organic binder. surely it would not be an impossible task to find an alternative binder? Maybe that green goop in a jar that preteenagers play with? IMHO

(Thu Jun 04 1998 22:57 - ID#413109)
Oz of Gold & what will it buy
@EJ---Enjoyed your post with price comparisons.
From what I just stated about and inflationary depression- can you
picture, as crazy as it sounds, the same gold quantity ( ratio of gold
to product ) but the quantity of dollars is 10 fold?
In other words the prices have increased while people cannot afford
to buy, relative to their dollar or other currencies, earnings' power.

People, like some I've known, who needed wheelbarrows filled with
money to buy a loaf of bread. I could never happen, right??

(Thu Jun 04 1998 22:58 - ID#238422)
LGB\We all know you sold something to somebody...
Remember, everything you said may and will be used
against you in the court of Kitco law. I do not care
if you sold missiles and warhears to China, but tell
me honestly, my brother, Did you sell them black powder
also? If yes, for how much?

(Thu Jun 04 1998 22:58 - ID#287186)
Gollum - an index of retail prices from 1935 World Almanac reveals

I posted prices for sugar, meat, etc. on K2
I apologize for the squashed table.
Maybe I'll scan the page and post a tiff.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 22:59 - ID#45173)
Reify: A twist on stagflation -- negative growth and inflation
Ok, let's name it: depreflation. I recall you talking about this. It is a perverse thing indeed.

Can you imagine the depreflation scenario, starting from a stock market crash?


(Thu Jun 04 1998 23:01 - ID#263379)
This week's Gold market

( Off to give more secrets to the chineeee )

(Thu Jun 04 1998 23:03 - ID#43352)
Life was more hectic then, especially on payday. People jostled in line
to be the first to get paid as soon as possible. Yoy were paid, literaly
with bushel baskets or wheelborrow loads of "money". You didn't go home.
You rushed immediately to the nearest store and bought what you could
before your "money" lost even more value.

Gave a person something to do on Friday afternoons.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 23:04 - ID#263379)
@ Oris
OK I admit it. We actually invented black powder at Loral ( The great great great great quintuple great X 10, 93rd grandchild of Bernie Schwartz ) and sneaked the secret to the Chineeee when the other backward civilizations of the earth weren't lookin!

( Pssst ..... we only build rocket ships, no boosters, no missiles, no guiodance systems..... we must be REALLY clever to have slipped all that sensitive technology that we don't posess to the Chineee ehhh???!!! )

(Thu Jun 04 1998 23:05 - ID#286253)
Re POG during depression: Gold did even better than cash: FDR re-pegged gold from $20 to $35 in ~1934 -- a 75% increase. This is exactly the sort of thing Krugman is now talking about in Japan ( although he stops short of saying it. ) Deflation will not be tolerated - if worst comes to worst, they'll print. Always have, always will.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 23:07 - ID#43460)
I don't think the west will have a depression
based on the unbelievable availability of new credit. With the number of credit card offers addressed to my kids I've thrown out over the last few years I have great difficulty believing that the crisis will be in that direction. I know too many people who'd just keep charging if they lose their jobs. After all, they can always just file for bankruptcy or move to Canada right? IMHO

Here's a typical, link I've not explored fully, one of the thousands available for a search of the word 'credit'. They say they're non-profit. IMHO

(Thu Jun 04 1998 23:08 - ID#31867)
Reify, Namaste'
Deflation, some excellent posts on the subject. Your last post on the suject is sort of what is says in The Great Reckoning. I just do not have the ability to write on the topic because I simply do not have the economic education nor background. But that is the way I read it.

No matter how we slice it I think what is going to make this time really horrible is the derrivatives and the technological speed at which transactions can take place.

Oh well, life does go on, no matter what we all have, we should be thankful...a gulp to ya...

(Thu Jun 04 1998 23:11 - ID#413109)
Gollum-You're playing my tune
but haven't replied to my request to email me.
The post WW I German hyperinflation for example that
eventually led to Hitler's rise.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 23:12 - ID#45173)
From 1914 to 1928 the index increased 51.9 from 102.4 to 154.3 in 14 years but dropped back to 102.1 by 1932 in only 4 years. Yikes! That must have felt like falling into a hole. How long did it take to get back to 154? Also, I thought there was little inflation in the late 1920's. Did the index flatten out after 1920 or so?

(Thu Jun 04 1998 23:14 - ID#344308)

there are many ways to trade from a technical point of view...
this chart represents my favorite....channels.

take the pebble....grass-hopper.


(Thu Jun 04 1998 23:14 - ID#286230)
Hope they keep the doors closed : )

(Thu Jun 04 1998 23:17 - ID#238422)
I respect your honesty. The whole picture should be now clear
for everybody...

I bet it was a deal between you guys - you gave them
black powder, they opened all those Chinese restraunts
around here to feed us, truthseekers....

Could you sell them something else, please,
I really like Chinese food...

(Thu Jun 04 1998 23:18 - ID#344308)


here are some thoughts...

(Thu Jun 04 1998 23:19 - ID#43460)
One more question about inflation.
We can take it for a given that human nature is to always prepare for the last war but never the next. Case in point the French WWII Maginot Line or the American diplomacy during the Kennedy/Johnson phase of the Viet Nam War. So since we're preparing for either a price rise or fall or even confiscation what is another possibility which we've ignored?

(Thu Jun 04 1998 23:20 - ID#27341)
would it be safe to say in germany i w1 there was no shortages.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 23:22 - ID#31867)
Cherokee_A, Namaste'
Printing now...gulp to ya...

(Thu Jun 04 1998 23:24 - ID#27341)
sorry, i,ll check before i post next time, should have been,after ww1.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 23:25 - ID#344308)

read on......

(Thu Jun 04 1998 23:26 - ID#413109)
Replying@EJ & Gollum
Gollum I see our posts are crossing and we both spoke about the
same situation that I'm personally familiar with-"wheel-barrows"
filled with money. I have some!!!

Date: Thu Jun 04 1998 22:59
EJ ( Reify: A twist on stagflation -- negative growth and inflation ) ID#45173:
Ok, let's name it: depreflation. I recall you talking about this. It is a perverse thing indeed.

Can you imagine the depreflation scenario, starting from a stock market crash?

Yes EJ, but the way I see it is that it all started many years ago,
when FDR, and then the famous IMF and Bretton Woods period, started
the world on this fun cycle -merry- go- round, we've all been riding.
It had to or I should say has to, end badly. The piper must always
be paid, and he doesn't accept funny money. OUCH!

(Thu Jun 04 1998 23:31 - ID#344308)

in honor of mozel...and the truth.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 23:31 - ID#244446)
Senator Bennett asks if y2k could bring martial law rule
The following quote is from Time Magazine's "Netly News" website.
Written by Declan McCullagh

The Martial Plan
Think the Year 2000 problem means mere elevator snafus? Try dealing with a platoon of Marines who show up in your front yard to confiscate your hoarded lentils. Sen. Robert Bennett ( R-Utah ) asked the deputy secretary of defense at a hearing this morning what plans the Pentagon has "in the event of a Y2K-induced breakdown of community services that might call for martial law." John Hamre replied carefully, but none too reassuringly, "We've got fundamental issues to deal with that go beyond just the Year 2000 contingency planning. And I think you're right to bring that up." ( snip )
And other countries? "We can be sure that there will be social unrest in many parts of the world as a result of Y2K," Bennett said. For the record, though, Bennett did say, "I am not one of those who says that Y2K will automatically produce martial law," and blamed "alarmists, extremists out there on the Internet" for unnecessary scaremongering. --By Declan McCullagh/Washington

(Thu Jun 04 1998 23:32 - ID#93130)
Golden Dreams
This "analyst" and "seer" is probably as good and reliable as any Gold Newsletter writer or analyst gets but unlike others makes no pretense about his source of inspiration and information. : )

DreamTime - Stephen H. Kapit makes predictions of Junior Canadian Gold Stocks, and global events from information received in his dreams. Updated weekly with comments and charts!

Aurator, I thought you particularly would appreciate this. :}

(Thu Jun 04 1998 23:40 - ID#255151)

Read your posts and links on Y2K. Any thoughts on when this will impact?

(Thu Jun 04 1998 23:50 - ID#27341)
Reify re Def and Hypoin,
does your model include availibility of nessesities as imports ?.

(Thu Jun 04 1998 23:51 - ID#210235)
@Sharefin - I am only the messenger!
I've been asked to send you big hugs and a bottle of Viagra ( a necessity for men turning 40 ) from the ladies who lurk but do not post here at Kitco.

Happy Birthday!