Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

Kitco Inc. does not exercise any editorial control over the content of this discussion group and therefore does not necessarily endorse any statements that are made or assert the truthfulness or reliability of the information provided.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 00:04 - ID#289321)
Monday's weird postings...
Some of us remained silent in Monday's disgrace, simply because it appeared that posting any responses would be a no-win situation.

In another forum that I sometimes read, whenever someone goes into attack mode, there is nothing that anyone can say that will be accepted as reasonable by anyone who is reacting emotionally... so it is best to simply let the dust settle and hope that reason returns. I've seen good people "lose it" on another forum because of poorly-thought-out criticism, and then return to sanity.

Sometimes criticism wars end with apologies, and sometimes interesting people may leave the forum before they end. It is sad when the latter occurs, but that is a fact of life. NONE of us likes to be treated rudely. However, that being said, let's recognize the fact that many of us have been hurt so badly and SO incessantly by the PM shorts, that many of us are on the edge of our self-control...not only here, but even in our day-to-day lives. Perhaps some people are wearing their feelings on their shirtsleeves because of the stress of impending financial RUIN.

Those of us who are DEEPLY suffering from the extended gold bear need to consider our own reactions to relentless adversity, and then have compassion on the DOW maniacs who suddenly find their fortunes gone with the wind. We are accustomed to financial adversity; but I fully believe that many DOW bulls will be stressed and depressed beyond belief when their house of cards starts falling down. Margin calls and credit card debt ( for stock purchases ) will further compound their financial setbacks. When that happens, let us remember to be compassionate rather than laughing at their despair. Most of them are duped into thinking that they are making good decisions, just as most of us goldbugs believe that we made the right decisions...even if those decisions have proven to be too early.

Our day in the sun shall surely come; but half the world is in darkness at any given time. So shall it be when gold returns to the sun. Many millions of investors will find themselves wiped out. When that day comes, Monday's hostile postings will seem insignificant by comparison.

PS: I have been trying to post this for over 25 minutes...without success. I apologize if this is repeated several times, as I do not know whether the problem is with my computer, my server, or Kitco.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 00:20 - ID#256455)
at Skip
Kitco is a forum for intelligent people to communicate with each other with respect for each individual to state his or her opinion. I have been on this forum almost since the beginning. It seems like every so often someone wants to "kick up a fuss" and insult other posters. If you have a long term view of this site and coincidentally the gold market, such irritations are only a 'dust devil' spawned by hot air and the heat of the moment and as such will dissipate and be dissolved by cooler air and minds.

This site is and should be the foremost location for unencombered minds to communicate about gold and relevant topics. At times it has been that, and at other times it has not. One must ignore the irritation factor of some posters here and enjoy the wealth of knowledge expressed herein without malice.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 00:20 - ID#432112)
Must be just the two of us who are having problems getting on K1. It took a while for me too. Oh well...maybe Bart is tinkering...

(Wed Jul 01 1998 00:25 - ID#153111)
ROR: A question?
From my reading of history I know of no socialist order starting from scratch. Germany was a rural backwater when it started to develop industry, as was Britain, the US, you know all of the bad old wicked capitalistic nations. Also it seems that socialist orders always come after someone else builds a nation's industry. How can this be explained except to say that socialist don't really build anything, but rather they steal what others have built? A futher reading of history tells me that from the pool of workers you guys always praise some small fish gets big and starts an iron or oil empire and you hate his guts for being successful. Is that to say you like workers as long as they stay in their place?

(Wed Jul 01 1998 00:28 - ID#432112)
Gold shorts
I heard that a couple of hedge funds have been shorting gold, but may move to a long position if the price moves above the 200 day moving average ( which appears close ) any thoughts?

(Wed Jul 01 1998 00:30 - ID#373284)
My LOVE is with you........
FOREVER....Namaste'.............forever and ever...I do truly LOVE all of you...palms up...each and every one of you is a treasure...TRULY...I kneel beneath you and yours...

(Wed Jul 01 1998 00:33 - ID#153111)
All is well in Mudville
Hey I liked Farfel, he was entertaining to me. As it was noted before if someone is egging you on no one has to respond to the call of the food fight. I know this is a gold based forum, and I love it as when ever something is going on the first place I go to is Kitco ( Thank you Bart! ) , but in times like these gold is so boring and a little action on the side by a crazed cyber serial maniac is good fun. I'm amazed at how for the most part people on this site are the par excellence of decorum. You're a good group to hang around with.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 00:37 - ID#210235)
@Hey, Tolly one
Still spreading joy and love all 'round? My love goes with you, a gulp and puff at ya, friend. We danced in my house in your honor today.


(Wed Jul 01 1998 00:37 - ID#284255)
Thank you for the info.
It does agree with what I have seen posted.

It surprises me that there has not been more talked about this subject if it is true.
Us poorly PC owner/operators will wear the brunt of this one.

Magic Elf's new web page.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 00:39 - ID#432112)
July Money
If you were an institutional investor, where would you put your money for the next 90 days? Is the market going to survive another quarter? Tank now or tank in October? ( Probably October, I think ) , but I'm ready if it tanks now ( Wish, wish, wish )

(Wed Jul 01 1998 00:40 - ID#284255)
Kitco offline temporarily?
Perhaps it was the roll-over to July 1st?

(Wed Jul 01 1998 00:44 - ID#240266)
I started buying gold shares for protection against
economic mayhem and am now begining to see that the prime source
of economic instability will ( is ) be paper.One must hold physical
to truly hedge.Bought silver at 5.10 a few months ago bought more
last week.Also today bought some platinum maple for
shares well...

(Wed Jul 01 1998 00:49 - ID#252150)
RJ@Roger Waters--that was great
& I can identify with him.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 00:51 - ID#434108)
WW III's fuse: Kosovo - just like I've been sharing w/ my fellow-kitcoites 4 several weeks
Sydney Morning Herald update
of the advancing, burning fuse...that will ultimately ignite the entire Balkans, draw in Russia vs the Moslem world
and usher in....
______ _____ ____ ( fill in the blanks )
a bull market in gold....,etc.

this just my opinion....strictly my own....
it has nothing to do with SMH, kitco, etc.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 00:53 - ID#342376)
Comments from the Veneroso camp....
Regarding leasing. It is so complicated. Frank Veneroso, my colleague, met with some of the top central bankers in Europe last week. Close to the vest bankers they are, one cannot decipher too much, but they seemed shocked, in general, as to the amount of the gold activity.
One said they cannot believe the irresponsibility of lending at these levels. I could go on forever. Bottom line is, Frank Veneroso has opened some eyes to the highest gold people in the world, and THEY ARE LISTENING. This is not a plug. The 1998 Gold Book Annual will finally be out in two weeks. It will shake the gold world up. Already, 5 central banks have ordered it.


We are $2.60 off a recovery high and no one cares or notices, you are right, a stealth move is on us.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 01:02 - ID#431366)
Look closely at the $5 Gold coin above
Likely never will any of us see gold or silver used in commonly circulating coins again - given the apathy toward the idea - even here. Eventually the CBs and BIS will do away with it altogether - they will trade paper or cyberciphers. Gold is primarily poker chips for traders, family heirlooms, plating on cheap jewelry, and fillings in rich people's teeth. Even Silver has more value.
Getting Gold into common circulation is the only way I see of getting the POG up and keeping it up without fear of political manipulation.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 01:06 - ID#432112)
I looked in at Urban Survival...Nice site...thanks.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 01:11 - ID#431366)
A visual reminder of why I am here. And also if the $5 coin isn't diplaying
I snagged this from Squirrel's inaugural post on the new K2
( which is likely to die from neglect )

(Wed Jul 01 1998 01:13 - ID#272379)
July '98 Critical Month
This month will prove to be a launch month for sea changes in the direction of a number of areas of interest to "our gang at the K-Ranch!!" Watch what comes out of these two days of Federal Reserve meetings and the July 7th ECM meet. These will give us some sense of interesd rate direction, currencies, and most especially the precious metals. As for China, watch for a REAL MOVE on bringing Taiwan back under mainland control. They'll do whatever it takes to get that goal accomplished. It'all about "face" and saving same. The surprise here will be if they do nothing. Watch for one or more major earthquakes and/or volcanic eruptions. Clinton's problems are not going to go away and the truth will prevail in due time. Stay alert and keep sharing pertinent info. This is first post after being an avid reader since Nov. 1997. Thank all of you who have contributed to the KING'S continuing, never ending education and search fo the truth.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 01:16 - ID#272379)
July '98 Critical Month
This month will prove to be a launch month for sea changes in the direction of a number of areas of interest to "our gang at the K-Ranch!!" Watch what comes out of these two days of Federal Reserve meetings and the July 7th ECM meet. These will give us some sense of interest rate direction, currencies, and most especially the precious metals. As for China, watch for a REAL MOVE on bringing Taiwan back under mainland control. They'll do whatever it takes to get that goal accomplished. It'all about "face" and saving same. The surprise here will be if they do nothing. Watch for one or more major earthquakes and/or volcanic eruptions. Clinton's problems are not going to go away and the truth will prevail in due time. Stay alert and keep sharing pertinent info. This is first post after being an avid reader since Nov. 1997. Thank all of you who have contributed to the KING'S continuing, never ending education and search fo the truth.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 01:16 - ID#252150)
Warm & fuzzy
To forgive is great/Especially on a high/So far from the sky.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 01:16 - ID#190411)
How are you doing in the lap of luxury?
I would bet that you are one proud capitalist.
I surely wish you the best with your little nest egg start of your 2000 shares of Newmont Gold.
But, as they say, one shouldn't put all of their eggs in one basket.

10000 RYO, would support feminism, as well as garnering you a tidy profit.

But, one mustn't ignore the opportunities of multiculturalism.
3000 shares of Harmony would fit the bill, don't you think?
.....Lastly, for tonight, gold and recycling have converged in the company "Crown Resources".
They are in the business of recovering Gold from tailings and mill slime.
I invested in all of these at one time or ANOTHER. Let noone tell you how to invest, least of all me.
I'm just attempting to raise your abysmal self-esteem, and point you toward the path of fun capitalism: You can be rich, and extract great pleasure from screwing the po'fokes.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 01:19 - ID#412286)
Your post was funny but your desire to be against working people was not. Go Union!!

(Wed Jul 01 1998 01:19 - ID#210235)
Welcome, hope you stay awhile.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 01:19 - ID#210235)
@Hey, RJ
Your post tonight was a reader and rereader.

My teenage son was coming by to take the phone and started reading over my shoulder. He instantly recognized the piece. Yes.

Pink Floyd spans the generations.


(Wed Jul 01 1998 01:21 - ID#242303)
Looks like the NYSE is getting ready for that big DROP...

(Wed Jul 01 1998 01:21 - ID#210235)
@Hey, Grizz
That 5 dollar piece is a mighty pretty baby. and I'm glad that K2's temporary demise pushed you over our way. We can use some shaking up. Go ahead. Remind us.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 01:25 - ID#210235)
COuldn't make your URL work.

Please try it out in "Preview Comment before Posting"

and see if it works there.

Anyway, BBML. Thanks in advance. Will read tomorrow.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 01:37 - ID#220325)
Gazebo on when to buy mining shares
The low usually takes place in late November, particularly in penny stocks. Until them they can be viewed as the killing fields. Good luck.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 01:40 - ID#284255)
Hooray! I have successfully hacked that url. I enjoy the challenge of
dealing over the internet. So many bugs, so much confusion. Such delight when success is at last achieved.

Here is Wizened Url:

(Wed Jul 01 1998 01:41 - ID#207145)
john Dissey
Has some Crow salad to eat. "Yen up dollar down, gold rally, Bloomer your nuts, it'll never happen". Well Dissey, it's bite the crow time for you.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 01:41 - ID#190411)
I'm not against the working people, and you know it.

Have you heard whether the "working people", and/or the "idle rich" can purchase "investment gold" in Europe without the "value added" tax. VAT

This was supposed to be settled by now, and ready for vote.

This is of enormous importance to spot gold prices.

Maybe, Delphi knows, for he was an oracle in his better days.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 01:54 - ID#45173)
Miro: Link Editor not related to K2K problem
You make an excellent point. I used to write PL/I and COBOL but it was long ago enough that your observation did not occur to me. I guess it did not link in the right obj files into program modules because of problems reading compile dates, so it ran a mix of fixed and non-fixed code.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 01:54 - ID#207145)
With your "catch the knife song". Kitco was so negative, you knew it was rally time. Sounded like the chat group was self destructing. I got attacked for calling for a rally. And we got one. Thank God we did.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 02:01 - ID#432112)
Gold moving up to 298. I like it! +++?

(Wed Jul 01 1998 02:02 - ID#45173)
Welcome, King
@All, the euphoria in Japan continues:

Japan...Nikkei 225...^N225...2:03AM...16352.90...+522.63...+3.30%


(Wed Jul 01 1998 02:02 - ID#242303)
Reposting of URL- apologies to all..

(Wed Jul 01 1998 02:10 - ID#410215)
..... About the sing along .....

Believe me, the song is better heard sung by anyone else but me, but I do have an interesting timbre ( nails on a chalkboard ) and a kind of crude honesty ( tone deaf ) quality to my voice that is nearly at par with my guitar playing ( muddy and twangy ) , but I do enjoy it so.


Every time I see a teen listening to Jimmy Hendrix or Pink Floyd or even early Talking Heads or U2, or the very rare occasion when you find a teen interested in classical or jazz, I realize that music is the only universal language. Reminds me of an outdoor John Lee Hooker concert I saw in Seattle in 1996. The audience was almost all younger than I ( 38 ) but they were rockin' to this 75 year old Blues Man from the backfields of Mississippi. Spans generations indeedy!

Grizz -

I happened on your K2 posts only a couple months ago. Yours is a welcome voice here. When the new k2 gets rolling, dont forget this spot and drop in from time to time

Arden -

You and Glenn and GSC have been around from the start. I read the site for a year before I ever posted, but I remember the old group. It was kind of one sided in those days though.. Seems more balanced hereabouts these days.

You are a Kitco Elder ( nothing to do with age but rather seniority )

(Wed Jul 01 1998 02:11 - ID#401262)
Blooper: That wasn't Erle who came up with the fallin' knife thingy. It was me EARL. One E one L and no Y. ...... 'n I'm plenty angry about your idle usurpation of my rightful claim to it. Iff'n you refuse to pay attention to proper rights to attribution, I'm gonna hire 'ol ROR and have him sue the butt right off of you.

I'm just a little guy and I believe he'll get a great kick out defending my rights by taking a big piece out of your monetary hide. 'Cause he don't care for no malefactors of great wealth. He's said it a dozen times. Or so. ....... so let's be careful out there. Huh?

In the meantime, I'll call him off if you'll tell me the secret to your success. As I said last nite, I won't tell anyone else. Least of all EB and John Disney. Or even RJ. ..... Promise.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 02:12 - ID#187109)
watch the bottom drop out of NY.......uh huh.
awwwaaaay... ( $ )

APH.... ( wherever you are ) .....plata........first gap filled.....waitin' on the second.........................ohmy ( ! ) ................. ( hope yer havin' fun ) .......................................

(Wed Jul 01 1998 02:12 - ID#399316)
Big Gains
in Yen and Nikkei late in the session both June 30th
and July 1st.

Anyone know who's intervening ?

Go Gold

(Wed Jul 01 1998 02:13 - ID#263100)
Arden post of 00:20
Arnen, good post, maybe you should repost this message every day. Thanks

(Wed Jul 01 1998 02:14 - ID#227238)
I'll be damned. I just had to reload Netscape and in the process of getting back on line. ....... I got a new handle. For one post at least.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 02:15 - ID#227238)
huang 531: There aint room for two of us here. ..... So I'll vacate my rights to the handle.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 02:16 - ID#257148)
so unsubtle and naive, this merkan leder.
This was posted earlier, Klinton has just sentenced thousands of Freemen to death. Read "China can attack Taiwan, we Don't care."

This bodes ill for regional instability, it implies a resurgence of Militarism and belicose posturing. IMHO. The klinton one is very dangerous, very dangerous indeed..

(Wed Jul 01 1998 02:20 - ID#93199)
Fidelity Select Gold
Fidelity Select Gold & Precious Metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )

Fidelity Select Energy & Energy Service Chart

Fidelity Select Computers, Electronics & Software Chart

(Wed Jul 01 1998 02:23 - ID#227238)
EB: PL up? yes ....JO? up? probably.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 02:24 - ID#399316)
This is DBOG

I posted ( Big Gains ) at 2:12 and also got hung
with huang 531 handle. Maybe BART is conducting
a little Y2K test as the big event is Eighteen months today.

Computers Eh ?

Go Gold

(Wed Jul 01 1998 02:27 - ID#399316)
Dbog again,

Looks like I'm now huang 531

What th ehell could that be ?

Go Gold

(Wed Jul 01 1998 02:29 - ID#410215)
..... Oh Yeah .....

I am at:

I am

(Wed Jul 01 1998 02:29 - ID#410215)
..... Aurator ......


Not the chewy kind

And not the curvy kind

But the chronological kind


You offered dates and for your help, I would be happy to send you a copy of the CD ROM, only I don't know about Mac stuff. The files are Netscape .cgi files and can be opened by Netscape Communicator as well as Navigator.

The dates I need are 8/16, 8/17, 8/18, 9/30, 10/1, and maybe 10/2 all in 1997. Do you have full days prior to 6/1/97?

Cooperation across oceans

This is as it should be


John Disney__A
(Wed Jul 01 1998 02:35 - ID#24135)
trying to shake off the curse ..
Bloomer ..
What do you want .. I already celebrated your
prowess yesterday. I'm glad to say that you are not
all bad. If you bought a MIG you'd be a stand guy.
Enjoy your 20 seconds of fame. Let's see if it
lasts longer.

James ..
Sorry if I failed to defend you sufficiently.. I
felt I was under attack myself .. If you havent been
called a Nazi on Kitco at least ONCE .. you're not
really a full member. Charter members get to
receive the dreaded farfel curse... as well as a
moniker perversion .. Janes .. pisspee .. and pussboy.
Havent heard from him .. is he still standing ?

John Disney__A
(Wed Jul 01 1998 02:39 - ID#24135)
Western Deep
Is now part of anglo gold .. you
get their shares in place.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 02:43 - ID#410215)
..... JD .....

I have come to realize that you are wiser than you appear

This may not sound like a compliment, but it is

Even in the midst of mine own bombast, I admire well executed subtlety

But you do have the mildly annoying habit of being right pretty often

Work on that, yes?

Perhaps there is something to this whole no crients thingie

I will give it thought


(Wed Jul 01 1998 02:43 - ID#257148)
"Golden data stream
I have AUg 17 & 18, Sept 30, and I think I have all of 1 Oct and 2 Oct ( but kitco was sliced and diced then ) max of 10 posts viewable at once.

My records go back to 1 March of 97, there are a few gaps from then to 1 June but not many. It will take me a little while to rescue these from my archive. Can I zip them and send them to you? They will be in an RTF format. If you had Marco Polo, I could send you an archive that would reproduce the origninal exactly, and occupy about 1/10 of space.

Win cd would be appreciated, much appreciated, I can do wonders on the Mac ( except get ICQ to work ) but becuase I have a few gaps, mostly from my holidays in Europe and Canada last year, and some laziness. You are mostly welcome to my data, in any event.

I have currently 50,000 pages in my archive. All gold related, I have archived selected news items and other interesting stuff.

What search engine do you use to access the files? My Marco Polo really is amazing, BUT, it does not do proximity searches, only Boolean.


(Wed Jul 01 1998 02:45 - ID#207145)
john Dissey
Just caught your post from earlier on. You attacked me as well as F* could have done over a correct Yen, gold call. At least you're starting to think I may be sane, that's a start. No thanks on the mig.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 02:51 - ID#410215)
..... Are you Salty or Crusty - I can't keep up .....

Ar RAY tor

ar RAY tor

ar RAY AYAY tor

Cool. I would like to learn more of this search thingie, sounds like a must.

My own methods are a bit less sophisticated, but effective nonetheless.

Take your time but if the dates in question could be had first, that would at least complete the last year.



(Wed Jul 01 1998 02:56 - ID#207145)
Someone, I forget who,
Wondered why I called a bottom in Oil. He asked with incredulity how that could be. Well June is the bottom for crude every year, and it preceeds the summer driving season. Draw downs start, and continue till winter, when driving is joined by heating oil season and winter. The off season in oil is Feb.-June. Asia can cause a problem for oil at any time. I plan to exit oil at first hint of 3rd leg down for Asia. Money can be made short term because of the attack on oil lately. It is necessary to know seasonality of commodities before seeking to argue.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 03:07 - ID#257148)
hubris and Nicknames
I am salty. As a result of ahhemm, coming on line and being less than circumspect. Someone suggested that my language was too salty, I think I was upset at the gastroman cos this is what I found:

Date: Sat Sep 13 1997 21:31
aurator ( meekly ) :
Mike Sheller, I have apologised, and as was pointed out, I was a tad too salty last night. In NZ we call it p*ssed. As in, I'm going down to the pub to get salty. :- ) Heh, you were making canibal noises, and I thought I was going to be dinner......

So, F*. An apology and a sense of humour will always go down well with the wise souls at kitco

as to search engines, you might like to look at FolioViews. I haven't checked it out for a year or so, and have now idea how it fits with Netscape/explorer.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 03:21 - ID#219363)
Growing signs of world slump
Just more light reading material, this time from the "World Socialist" web site ? Anyway ....

"What a difference a year makes. The Asian economies are caught in a 1930s-style recessionary spiral,financial system hovers on the brink of insolvency, and there are growing signs that the global economy, including the United States, is about to enter recession."

(Wed Jul 01 1998 03:33 - ID#284255)
Year 2000 computer bug threatens Third World, UN says

John Disney__A
(Wed Jul 01 1998 03:42 - ID#24135)
Freezing in Africa ..
To All
Gold tech's numbers on Harmony are a bit out of date.
( rand at 6.26 this morning .. I got hammered as I
bought back at 5.7 ) ..
The cost of production number of 280 was at a rand
rate of around 4.6 .. at 6.25 its more like
280 * 4.6/6.25 = 206 !!!. and Harmony was a rather
HIGH COST MINE . Anglo gold will be under 200 .
The NA mines are all over 300 average cost ..
except maybe for RYO .. Funny how things change ..

For RJ
Thanks Old Bean

For Bloomer
Your twenty seconds are up.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 03:46 - ID#386245)
Contrarian's dream!!
Forget gold!!!
Forget silver!!!


Have you EVER seen charts worse than these??
Thanks Finnie.

This chart is so bad, it must be time to buy. Hey, Nickel can only go down to zero!! Look at the upside. Voisey Bay is mired in all kinds of problems that will delay until 2001 or so.
Thanks, D.A. ( this URL also good for lots of other worthless stuff )

C'mon guys,gals--think about it. Japan is the largest stainless steel user in the world. As goes Japan--so goes nickel. If you think ( as I do ) that the Yen and Nikkei are going to recover--then nickel is also a good bet. You can even have your cake and eat it too. There are some big Aussie gold miners with low-cost lateritic nickel deposits coming on stream this year. Now I have never been known to tout stocks on this site, so I will not mention the names Centaur ( CTR ) and Resolute ( RSG ) --oops--slipped out!! BTW--Resolute just bought all of BHP's gold interests in Africa as well.

Many thanx to Sharefin and D.A. for the above URLs. You both win a nickel. Now, would you like it plugged or whole? Buffalo? Jefferson? I have squillions of nickels. As a kid in the US ( 1950s ) I collected coins and have whole folders of Buffalo heads etc., even those funny looking ones that preceded B.H.s and some half-dimes, and speaking of dimes--have them back to 1829 , and 3 cent pieces and all kinds of strange Merkan coins. Will have to look em up in a coin book one day. Complete set of Indian Head or Lincoln pennies, anyone??

Where was I? I would like some comment on my nickel/gold investment strategy. What could be more out of favour than nickel and gold?

C'mon moronator and pisspee. Mates, what do you think??

(Wed Jul 01 1998 03:51 - ID#284255)
World Bank Y2k web site.
Owing to past neglect, in the face of the plainest warnings, we have now entered upon a period of danger. The era of procrastination, of halfmeasures, ...of delays, is coming to its close. In its place we are entering a period of consequences... We cannot avoid this period, we are in it now... Unless ...this House resolves to find out the truth for itself, it will have committed an act of abdication of duty without parallel.

--Winston Churchill, 12 November 1936
Testimony to the House of Commons:
Debate on National Defense Posture

(Wed Jul 01 1998 03:53 - ID#284255)
Infrastructure and Interdependencies

(Wed Jul 01 1998 03:59 - ID#347235)
@ James
You were doing a pretty good job of defending yourself, no body came to my aid either but I didnt need any help. F* obviously is a very unstable person who feel the need to attack anyone who says anything he disagrees with, and the criterion for that seems to change minute by minute. It is not worth worrying about. Shalom to you.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 04:04 - ID#410215)
..... Salty .....

Ghandi marched to the sea to make salt

It makes beer froth up

Tastes good on corn

I think its getting a bad rap

Additionally, mayhap I inquire:

Would someone called Limey be welcomed into the pub to get salty? What if I was invited by a Salty? Or would they think me presumptuous, passing myself of as a Limey when they would surely not make the connection with the Corona accouterment but rather hear "Limey" and think British, and immediately become suspicious when the California drawl issues forth. My own heritage has a quarter British ( not the better quarter, but a well and fit quarter indeedy ) but the greatest number of nationalistic liters flowing through my veins were borne primarily in The Netherlands; but I dont trust any country or city that is insecure enough to want a "The" in front of it. I mean just what the hell is The Hague? And why is the whole place under sea level? Dikes or no, I want at least some piece of continent ABOVE the high tide mark to stake my claim.

So, enough, its late, and Im rambling

ZZZZZzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz . . . . . . . . .

Besides what are the Dutch known for? Wooden shoes?

Hey.. Woody Now THATS a pub name!


(Wed Jul 01 1998 04:07 - ID#434108)
ABX's 6/30 price advance of 4.76% w/ 3.1 mill shares(100% above vol.'s daily avg.)
this bell-weather stock ( see yahoo chart ) reveals gold's impending eagerness to go up up up ( imho )

(Wed Jul 01 1998 04:10 - ID#257148)
Limeys like yourself, RJ, will brighten up any pub where a salty has his elbows on the bar.

Oh yes, there's a beer ( or two ) here at any time.

be careful adding salts to water for brewing. Different water hardness is suitable for different types of beer.

John Disney__A
(Wed Jul 01 1998 04:16 - ID#24135)
Warmer in Africa ..
to all
Forced to buy back harmony, deeps , randfontein
this morning.
Greed in the form of contemplating their profits
at these rand levels versus fear of that lousy
gold MA PLUS ewave forecast. Greed won first round.

Also recollection of parting F* curse .. that the
dollar would be strong and murder us all .. applying
Disney's LAW ( which I will not restate ) .. takes
some of the pressure off.

Rand back to 6.09. Hedge fund sell into thin NY
market to drive price .. then buy back here .. Dirty

(Wed Jul 01 1998 04:19 - ID#219363)
Collect the whole set, trade em with your friends.
Stock certificates, Treasury notes, Bonds, Coupons, Green stamps, Car wash tokens, Quarters, Nickels, Dimes, Pennies, Gift certificates, Checks, Rebate certificates, Money orders, Credit cards, IOUs, Camel cash, Marlboro miles, Dollars, Traveler's checks, Cashiers checks, Video game tokens, and my personal favorite - Woodstock dollars which were minted for the MTV's woodstock concert.

oh, or Gold.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 04:30 - ID#386245)
J'burg gold

JD--glad to see you back in the hunt.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 04:44 - ID#434108)
c-oil bottom/gold-bottom/crb-bottom/soymeal-bottom/bean-bottom/cotton-bottom
U.S. dollar top/u.s. stock market-top/yen-bottom

could it be almost all of these have been predicted/identified/mapped-out, by the "Committment of Traders" pattern:
of 'Commercials' buying less & less ( -a series of lower & lower 'net-longs', while prices correspondingly have worked their way lower...
thus setting the stage for this water-shed turning point...
in history...
June, 1998...
when investment markets reverse their 2-decade old cycle-pattersn
when the U.S. prez debates freedom w/ the prez of C. China;
when the Balkan fuse of WW III is ignited;
when the EURO power-brokers admit they will include gold-backing;
when internationally powerful banks & investment houses....
from Switzerland, to the U.S.A. to Japan ....
merge with one another, in a hasty, panicky retreat....
of the "survival of the 'fittest' ";
when No. America deludes & indulges itself, in an
economic 'Indian Summer' of denial, manipulated statistics,
government largess, and wishful-thinking....
while the cold winds of economic winter
and the haunting howeling screams of approaching wolves....
approaching the door...
are ignored.....

years ago ( '72-'74 ) , there was an investment newsletter writer,
who spoke/wrote:

"there is a national park, in the Montana/Dakota states/region
( -as best I can recall ) ...
that has a sign posted:
"Please do not feed the prairie-dogs while you are here
in the summer.
Because if you do, they will have become dependent on your
feeding them -- your hand-outs. And when winter comes,
when you are not here; they will have forgotten how to
fend for themselves... even in the good times.
And in winter, in the harsh times, they will have not
stored-up supplies/food/sustenance.... for the winter....
and they will perish.

I am not into 'hero-worship', or glorification of past-leaders, and I do not Prez Kennedy was w/out blemish. Nevertheless, his remark:
"Ask not what your country can do for you; ask what you can do for your country."..... was on the right track.

More concisely, Ayn Rand's philosophy offers an important refinement on these words:
she might have said it like this ( imho ) :
'ask not what your country can do for you
( because if you do, you will enslave yourself to the state )
'ask yourself, instead: what can you do for yourself'?!.

( ( buy gold, & even silver... perhaps....perhaps - NOW ) )
for this idea of self-relianceway of saying
in investment

(Wed Jul 01 1998 05:19 - ID#434108)
world's largest banks

(Wed Jul 01 1998 05:21 - ID#434108)
a lone voice, in the wilderness
a man before his time

(Wed Jul 01 1998 05:28 - ID#284255)
Bill Gates for President ?!?

The next Administration, be it Clinton or Dole, is doomed to go down as the worst disaster in American history because the Y2K Time Bomb will leave the government and the financial system in chaos. Clinton has been told about this pending disaster but his people can't relate to the problem because nobody in the White House is old enough to have programmed in cobol, assembler or fortran and Dole probably hasn't even heard of it.

Bill Gates will emerge in 2000 as the man on the white horse. Americans will turn to the one person who, more than any, will elicit confidence that he can resolve the Y2K Time Bomb.

Is gold not perhaps the way to go? Can anyone out there recommend a qualified, honest professional on gold investments who might be interested in publishing a letter at Westergaard Online explaining how investors should begin hedging against the Y2K Time Bomb by going to gold stocks???

John Disney__A
(Wed Jul 01 1998 05:28 - ID#24135)
Why am I so jumpy ??
For Nick ..
yes am back .. but in fear of strong dollar ..
and the ghost of you-know-who.
Have faith in mine profits at squashed rand levels..
but have no faith this gold rally .. I await the chop
with trepidation ..
My move was defensive .. had to go somewhere to
excape cornered rand .. crazy to go back to dollar ..
so went to mines .. picked favorite 3 that were above
their 200 MA.. even though the index is not.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 05:42 - ID#284255)
Goldfevr - Top World Banks 97 - Mkt Caps
Rank -97-----Bank-----Country-----Market capitalization ( $m )
1-----Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi-----Japan-----85,372
2-----HSBC Holdings-----UK-----76,357
3-----Lloyds TSB Group-----UK-----54,453
5-----Sumitomo Bank-----Japan-----41,944
7-----Dai-Ichi Kangyo Bank-----Japan-----41,131
8-----Chase Manhattan -----US-----40,363
9-----Fuji Bank-----Japan-----38,440
10-----Sanwa Bank-----Japan-----37,990
11-----NationsBank -----US-----34,625
13-----Industrial Bank of Japan-----Japan-----30,077
14-----Deutsche Bank-----Germany-----29,142
15-----Union Bank of Switzerland-----Switzerland-----25,764
16-----Wells Fargo Bank-----US-----25,579
17-----ABN Amro Holding-----Netherlands-----25,168
18-----First Union-----US-----23,617
19-----Hang Seng Bank-----Hong Kong-----23,088
20-----National Westminster Bank-----UK-----22,430
21-----Credit Suisse Group-----Switzerland-----22,361
22-----Abbey National-----UK-----22,144
23-----Sakura Bank-----Japan-----21,229
24-----National Australia Bank-----Australia-----20,532
26-----Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation-----Singapore-----19,013
27-----JP Morgan-----US-----18,839
28-----Swiss Bank Corporation-----Switzerland-----18,679
29-----First Chicago NBD Corp-----US-----18,312
30-----Mitsubishi Trust & Banking-----Japan-----18,294
31-----Banc One-----US-----17,845
32-----Tokai Bank-----Japan-----16,890
33-----Dresdner Bank-----Germany-----16,609
34-----Banco Bilbao Vizcaya-----Spain-----16,335
35-----Standard Chartered-----UK-----16,098
36-----Asahi Bank-----Japan-----16,006
37-----Fleet Financial Group-----US-----15,982
38-----Bank of New York-----US-----15,952
39-----United Overseas Bank-----Singapore-----14,706
40-----Royal Bank of Canada-----Canada-----13,430
41-----Bangkok Bank-----Thailand-----13,275
42-----PNC Bank-----US-----13,248
43-----Banco Santander-----Spain-----13,140
44-----Development Bank of Singapore-----Singapore-----12,779
45-----First Bank System-----US-----12,285
46-----Sumitomo Trust & Banking-----Japan-----11,760
49-----Malayan Banking-----Malaysia-----11,464
50-----Suntrust Banks-----US-----11,457

(Wed Jul 01 1998 05:50 - ID#284255)
Lest we forget
Still a good read...

(Wed Jul 01 1998 05:53 - ID#434108)
"top banks " & "jumpy"
thanks sharefin, you're too much...
we should create another web-site of kitcoite graduates...

i meantr what isaid about bank/fiance huse mergers....scrambling ( -to stay afloat )

i can't recall anyone her/elsewhere much noticing the
important Swiss bank merger of some weeks ago
hey big "D":
we're all jumpy at the bottom

(Wed Jul 01 1998 05:57 - ID#434108)
good-nite guys
i need my beauty-rest...
what's left of it
gold & silver are poised for accelerating advances....
i've seen for almost 3 decades,
how often major markets move 'themselves'...dramatically...
a high percentage of the time....
just around major holidays

let golden freedom ring

(Wed Jul 01 1998 06:05 - ID#284255)
Global Economic charts - always worth a look???

(Wed Jul 01 1998 06:20 - ID#26793)
So. Korea worried about won to strong against falling dollar.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 06:23 - ID#26793)
Sumitomo Trust may hold talks with Union Bank of Switzerland

(Wed Jul 01 1998 06:28 - ID#29048)
Clinton betrays Taiwan...
Clinton Backs China's Policy Of Reunification With Taiwan


SHANGHAI, China -- In a concession to Beijing and a blow to Taiwan, President Clinton stated unequivocally here that the U.S. government supports China's policy on Taiwan, using Beijing's own formula to do so.
Repeating a version of the "three noes" that China has long insisted the U.S. and other countries adhere to, the president said, "We don't support
independence for Taiwan; or two Chinas; or one Taiwan, one China. And we don't believe that Taiwan should be a member in any organization for which statehood is a requirement."

(Wed Jul 01 1998 06:37 - ID#341189)
IMF lacks funds to help Russia - down to 10-15 billion $'s

(Wed Jul 01 1998 06:39 - ID#26793)
Severe Year 2000 recession probable

(Wed Jul 01 1998 06:52 - ID#411331)
@ crazytimes: re Venerososo's meeting with ECB officials.
You state that these top bank officials were surprised by the leasing
activities of their own banks. You state that they were surprised
that gold would be lent at such low rates ( 1-2% ) by their own
institutions. I don't believe their surprise. They have to know!
The low lease rates are intended to deflate the POG. It is intended.
These are not stupid ignorant people. They know. All bankers are
con artists.

Gold is the beast. It is the enemy of paper. These people deal in paper.
Worse, they deal in paper that they can make up out of thin air.
Worse, they now make paper out of electrons. Lease rates keep the
beast in chains.

IMHO, but it would be nice if you are right!

(Wed Jul 01 1998 06:53 - ID#434108)
one opinion, the time is NOW, 7/1/98, pst, 4:00 a.m.:
July 1, 1998, 4:00 a.m. Pacific Standard Time, U.S.A.:

and nero fiddles, as rome burns........ again
and the calm ( erodes, just ) ...before the storm
and the heeding & humble .... among us
observe the time
and flee the ensuing, on-rushing evil...

for... the rescue & succor
of gold

(Wed Jul 01 1998 07:01 - ID#35571)
Wednesday haiku
Middle of the week.
At the center of the year.
sunrise was clear gold.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 07:01 - ID#289357)
Mr. Disney

John -

What do you think DROOY's cash cost is now, with the Rand at present depressed values?

I'm guessing about $240-250/oz, which would make their annual earnings about $1/share. Not bad for a $2.25 stock, eh?

Bully Beef
(Wed Jul 01 1998 07:12 - ID#259282)
I know it means little but I like the way that chart goes up smooth and even.
Hardly a bump in the road.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 07:29 - ID#341189)
Gold doing well in London despite pound drop
There is a nice double bottom in the British pound/gold chart in March and June at 174 pounds. Moving up nicely now. One would need steel nerves to stay short this market now. IMHO

(Wed Jul 01 1998 07:34 - ID#35571)
half moon
half moon, half wwek, half year halfway there.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 07:37 - ID#284255)
Charts supportive of an up move...
Dow/GCQ8 - looking toppy.

XAU/GCQ8 - Turning the corner? - looks good for gold stocks.


Risks Digest - great reading
PC security issues discussed plus more.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 07:39 - ID#42039)
Rhody:6:52 post
Well said

(Wed Jul 01 1998 07:39 - ID#411331)
@ ALL: TODAY IS A Y2K FLASHPOINT. It is 7/1/98, which is
the first day of fiscal 1999 for 46 of 50 states in the US.

Please keep an eye on newscasts concerning computer glitches
at the state level and please post. I do not know how this
date code would mess up state computer systems, but it is
the first in a series of critcal dates that should give us
some forewarning about the severety of the Y2K phenomena.

I for one, shall be hanging around the computer for the
next two days to try to get a idea of the impacts.

Oh yes, I e-mailed Ontario Hydro ( which generates over 60% of
this province's power requirements using nuclear generators ) and
asked them if they were working towards Y2K compliancy, and if
the Harris government had provided any additional funding for
their effort. I received no answer. This was 6 weeks ago.
I shall e-mail them again, but this time inform them that
hundreds of people on the Kitco forum are awaiting their answer
with baited breath ( untrue I know, but I expect them to lie as
well ) .

(Wed Jul 01 1998 07:46 - ID#434108)
haiku's hicUP
Up went the balloon
until now
it pops

Down went the good
but now, it
grows & grows & grows

(Wed Jul 01 1998 07:49 - ID#411331)
@ sharefin: Is that a classic head and shoulders top I see forming
on the DOW chart?!!! A slow decline from here would be best for gold.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 07:51 - ID#284255)
Can there be a Y2K Draft?
Also on the same page.
My guess is that by the latter part of this year, Y2K will
one of the most talked about subjects on the planet.

I heard a report recently; about an opinion poll on the awareness and attitudes of Americans on the issue. Mind you this was a couple of months ago, but 50% of the respondants had not heard of the problem. Then it gets really scary. The other 50% ranged from moderately concerned to very concerned. Get this - 14% said they were going to "take all of their money out of the banks," just in case. For those of you who are unfamiliar with this, the Fed counts money in three categories, M1, M2, and M3. Without belaboring the definitions, M1 is cash and equivalents. The problem is that only about 2% of M1 exists in currency and coin. So do the math - how can 14% of the money be withdrawn if only 2% of it exists?

My whole point is that by December 1999 - lots of "New Year" plans are going to be different. Even if the world is 95% compliant there will still be a big big SAAFU...Situation Abnormally All Fowled Up!

(Wed Jul 01 1998 07:52 - ID#252391)
To Rhody on Venerosso's
I was surprise too at the comments posted that central bankers in Europe were "surprised" to hear their own banks were leasing gold for 1%. What? One hand doesn't know what the other is doing. I'm surprised that Bull Bill Murpphy, whose comments about Venerosso's meetings were quoted, would leave the reader to believe that his mentor didn't take "the surprise with a suspicion. Who is kidding who, here. Was Venerosso taken in by his hosts??

Gold will edge up here to 300 dollars as the yen hits a peak in anticipation of news about bank restructuring then decline again when the selling on the news comes inoto the market. We'll be back testing 292 -294 and the yen 142-144 before the 12th of July.

After the Japanese elections, after the Japanese have told us all they are going to about their plans for their banks and taxes, we'll see the test of 292 and 144 yen that will determine whether a bottom is really in at this point.

The jury is still out. One close over $300 and the surprised bankers will be out with some announcement that'll knock gold down to the lower limits of the 292 - 300 range.

I'll be very surprised if it's otherwise.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 07:53 - ID#354133)
Some folks...
...Never admit they're wrong ...have to get the last word in... "He's an arrogant man...with very little to be arrogant about." Trust must be earned.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 07:55 - ID#35571)
Twelve days in July
Buy on the rumor, sell on the news...

Many US dollar-bulls quickly turned bearish from the early morning as
the Yomiuri Shimbun reported in its morning edition today that the Japanese
government and the LDP have agreed on a plan to enact a permanent tax cut
in fiscal year 1999-2000 ( Apr-Mar ) . Prime Minister Hashimoto will likely
announce the plan during the election of the upper house on Jly 12, the
paper said .

(Wed Jul 01 1998 07:55 - ID#14785)
John Disney
Thanks for the information regarding Western Deeps.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 08:01 - ID#29048)
Gold firmer in Europe...

(Wed Jul 01 1998 08:01 - ID#35571)
Behind the scenes
Yen/dollar driven down by a number of things, one of the main ones being driven through sell stops yesterday. The Yen bears are now regrouping. They made it above 143 without any intervention, before their most unfortunate experience yesterday. We would presume they will come slinking back...

(Wed Jul 01 1998 08:09 - ID#35571)
Reality check
It appears that we are not looking at the dollar up so much as at the yen down. This would tend to indicate our latest rally is somewhat transitory, but refreshing nonetheless.


(Wed Jul 01 1998 08:10 - ID#45173)
@sharefin, aurator, speed, Envy
How dare you keep posting the hyperbolic Y2K prognostications of cult hysterics like the CIA, UN and World Bank ; ) Did you catch the recent interview with Al Gore? He says, "The current oversight of the agencies is working and is providing us with valuable information about the status of agency actions designed to solve the year 2000 problem. We are monitoring agency progress very closely, and I think you'll see the agencies make great strides over the next several months."

Translation: "I have no idea what the agencies are doing or if they are getting anything important done."

aurator & speed,
I've said that Jimmy Carter is the most hated US president in Taiwan. He won their hatred by severing diplomatic relations with the US. Looks like Clinton just took over the job. I wonder if Clinton understands that Taiwan is a democracy governed not by Chinese but by Taiwanese? The Chinese were allowed to govern Taiwan until the last election because they had earned the right by helping the Taiwanese during WWII kick out the Japanese who had occupied Taiwan for 60 years. Taiwan belongs to the Taiwanese, not the Chinese, and the Chinese in Taiwan were moved out of power by political means. The president of Taiwan is Taiwanese. Why does Clinton want a deny this prosperous, hard-working people the democratic national sovereignty they have fought so hard to acheive? I don't think he realizes that's what he's doing.

There are ten thousand kinds of paper, and then there's gold.


(Wed Jul 01 1998 08:17 - ID#284255)
I have done the same re Y2k and local power provider.
I have received one letter saying that they are not responsible for providing power, that lies with their parent company.
They had forwarded the request for information to their parent company for an answer.
No answer as yet. I don't expect a reply.

As to the dow chart that is the Dow/Gold chart.
It does look very toppy which bodes well for a gold rally.
How far it goes - who knows.

I will keep an eye open for any glitches reported re the new fiscal year roll-over.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 08:19 - ID#411331)
@ jims: agreed, except on the rise of the yen. I think the
bottom is in on gold, because I think the top in in on the
dollar. I think the Americans will inflate. To not do so
is to risk a depression. A too think that if gold tops
$300, we will see some negatives from the ECBs. Let me
see, does Belgium or Holland still have some to sell?

I heard that the ECBs will meet on July 7 to discuss the
freezing of CB gold reserves. It this is true, and they
do freeze the gold reserves, this is obviously very
bullish for gold, and also places a one week time frame
on the deceit and sleasing. If.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 08:21 - ID#289357)
DROOY - earnings estimate based on devalued Rand

I've refined my rough numbers stated on an earlier post with reference to DROOY's earnings at the present Rand level. Comments are appreciated.

Basis ( from DRD website ) production is 4800 Kg/quarter or 617280 Troy Oz/yr

I am assuming 45 MM total shares ( I don't know the exact quantity )

Worst case:

The total cash cost of production ( previous quarter ) was $307/Oz, based on 4.95 Rand / US$; the current cash cost would be $258/Oz, based on 5.9 Rand / US$.

Total revenues @ $297/Oz = $ 183,332,160

Total costs @ $258/Oz = $ 159,258,240

Net earnings = $ 24,073,920 or $0.53/share

Best case:

If the production cash cost is reduced to $285/Oz ( basis 4.95 Rand/US$ ) ( this was the stated target for reducing cash costs in the quarterly report ) , then the current basis cash cost is only $239/Oz based on 5.9 Rand / US$.

Total revenues @ $297/Oz = $ 183,332,160

Total costs @ $239/Oz = $147,529,920

Net earnings = $ 35,802,240 or $0.78/share

Either of these numbers will go up a lot with the increased price of AU.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 08:23 - ID#45173)
Clinton haiku
China appeasement
The lion prepares to fight
Pieces in our time

(Wed Jul 01 1998 08:29 - ID#284255)
Gore or Gates for president?
Who would be better?

Have been trying to find the full version of the UN Y2k report.
Still looking now.
They quote some drastic situations coming.
But then we've heard them all before.

Have you come across this "Time Warping" problem?
For a problem that is actually there, there is very little to find on it.
Hush-hushed or undiscussed?

I'd like to find out future implications for us PC users.
The many unimportant masses...

(Wed Jul 01 1998 08:32 - ID#45173)
Y2K impacts revenue -- mine, that is
I finished up my quarter yesterday. The sales region I manage did 125% of quota. That's the good news. The bad news is that I would have done better except two of my folks were unable to get two important deals through. Why? Seems that the companies have Y2K compliancy requirements that my company's attorneys were not comfortable signing up for. Under their contract, we are liable not only for the Y2K compliance of our own software, but of the complete system, including the operating system of the servers that our software runs on, which is NT, which is not Y2K compliant.

If lawyers are get invloved in every software and hardware sale, that alone will have an impact on the economy. Sure has an impact on my personal economy, I'm here to tell ya

(Wed Jul 01 1998 08:36 - ID#263254)
Old Soldier
In total agreement. That post was only one side of the "coin". The other side being "truth in the media" is deftly manipulated by the Bilderberger "consortium" among others. Personally, I get more truth out of staring at my monitor lurking and listening to y'all. Might as well throw out the TV and if it weren't for NPR and Bloomberg financial reports, scrap the radio as well. Newspapers, well, hey they're good for puppies.

What is really scary is how many folks won't believe til ol' Dan or Peter say it's true at dinner time. Bloody stinkin' frightful.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 08:38 - ID#72316)
rhody on hydro
An aquaintence of mine was one of the early retirees at hydro. He was contracted back a few months ago. Job--- Y2k remedial work...


(Wed Jul 01 1998 08:42 - ID#252391)
To EJ Rhody and Silverbaron
Totally agree on the Taiwan post. Selling the people of that island down down the river.

Rhody, thanks for the tip on the fix of Gold reserves. Suppose that will be bullish if the lease rates rise.

Silverbaron - do you have any similar revenue cost stats on Harmony?

TO all watching the Kitco quote - buy silver at $407!!

(Wed Jul 01 1998 08:49 - ID#289357)

Nope - don't have any hard data on Harmony.......perhaps the POLARBEAR/Disney spreadsheet that was ( is?? ) on Vronsky's site has the production data and costs on Harmony that could be extrapolated to the new Rand value.

But ( if I recall correctly ) Harmony's costs were very low to begin with, something like $200/Oz, so the Rand devaluation wouldn't make the dramatic difference in earnings as it will with DROOY. All IMHO, of course.


(Wed Jul 01 1998 08:51 - ID#284255)
GAO chief scientist says 'no one is in charge' of fed Y2K efforts
"no one is in charge"
nobody knows for sure just how much headway the government is making in its battle against the clock.
"Our entire way of life, in essence, is at risk
"We don't know the [Year 2000] status of the federal government with any real precision,
"It's also about attitude, belief and commitment,"
"we're still rooting out pockets of denial."

As of May 1998, the Army still had 177,000 systems and electronic devices needing Year 2000 fixes
"I wish we had started earlier, but we did not,

All of the government's critical systems will not be renovated and tested by the Year 2000,
"This is as pretty a picture that we can put together."
From the horses mouth.
Opps, I mean the Gov'ts....

(Wed Jul 01 1998 08:53 - ID#427357)
Inger Letter Forecast - 1 July 1998

Veteran Market Forecaster Gene Inger shares his successful short-term stock market strategies with us. His advises "Daily point; nobody should let the S&P 500 break 1150 without being short."

However Guru Gene cautions:

"Short-covering, while powerful on a very short-term basis, is by

definition not enduring. Rally action into a Quarter's end, is also

by definition not particularly enduring. Ditto new month's buys,

especially when it's following a ragged end-of-Quarter affair that

should make money managers just a bit nervous."

Interestingly. . .he observes "we've expressed puzzlement for a couple days

about technical analysts all talking about resistance above the

market, and explosive upside as soon as we breakout. It was a

puzzlement because we thought that's what happened last week,

and that we played it on the upside ( a 3000 point S&P gain from

the general 1120 level to a sale right at 1150 ) ."

But the market maven warns "Certainly a good part of Tuesday's move had to do with

Dollar/Yen, and fears that Japan or even the U.S. are targeting

Friday, the American market Holiday, to roil the Greenback."

In Summary the inimitable Inger says it's a market suitable for TRADING.

Full report at the following URL - as usual it is necessary to delete the extra letters "en" in word "golden" of the URL before posting it to your Internet locator:

(Wed Jul 01 1998 08:57 - ID#284255)
"Buy gold" is going mainstream.
Still others plan to shift their financial assets to cash and gold.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 08:58 - ID#411331)
@ jims: yesterday, J. Disney posted that Harmony's cost per oz
at the new valuations of the rand would be about $210 US.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 09:03 - ID#432157)
Food for thought---yes What does this mean ?????
Gold Watch
Veneroso Associates
June 30,1998 Issue 06.06

John Brimelow William J Murphy III Frank Veneroso

The Gold Market
 European Central Bank Attitudes

We spent the last week in Europe discussing some of the analysis and conclusions of our first edition of The Gold Book Annual with several central banks in Europe as well as some producers, dealers, and the World Gold Council management in Geneva. Several issues struck us as key.
1 ) We have argued that Gold Fields Mineral Services' ( GFMS ) so-called "official statistics" on the gold market understate global gold demand, borrowed gold flows, and the deficit in the gold market. There appears to be a growing awareness of this. World Gold Council officials do not take issue with our extrapolations of their gold demand data to overall global demand levels that exceed GFMS levels. We were surprised to find that one of the major producers, apparently after having done some research, has concluded that outstanding gold loans may approach 7000 tonnes---a figure that is not far removed from our own estimate of 8000 tonnes. Whereas a year ago our views were widely regarded as "wild" and "irresponsible", we now see growing credibility in our positions. This coincides with some concessions on GFMS' part in revising upward their estimate of outstanding gold loans by 950 tonnes and conceding the existence of fabricator and refinery borrowings.
2 ) The central banks appear to have taken GFMS' data on the gold market as fact. There may be no awareness on their part that the gold market deficit could be understated. It is widely recognized by central banks that their selling and lending of official gold is depressing the gold price, but, owing to misleading GFMS data, they do not appreciate how severely it has been depressing the gold price.
3 ) This statistical issues are clearly very relevant to official sector behavior toward gold. We argue that the central bank gold flows were on the order of 1100 tonnes per annum in the period 1994-1996 and were depressing the gold price from almost $600 to an average of $386. If we are correct and if central bankers believed what we believe, central Banks would be less inclined to lend and sell gold. From this perspective, the World Gold Council's field work has proved critical to the central bank issue: without their Gold Demand Trends survey, there would be no alternative demand survey to that of GFMS.
4 ) There is another way in which these statistical issues have a bearing on the behavior of central banks toward gold. In The Gold Book Annual we show that, at a constant real gold price, since the early 1800's, global gold fabrication demand has risen at roughly a 4.5% annual rate whereas ex ante mine supply has risen at a 2.8% annual rate. Over the 25 years from 1971 to 1996, at a constant real gold price, ex ante gold demand rose at a 6% rate while ex ante mine supply grew at more than a 1.8% annual rate., In the absence of monetary and Western investment flows, the gold market can clear ex post only if the real gold price rises sufficiently in real terms to ration price elastic demand down to the level of price inelastic mine supply. By our calculations, this implies a trend annual real rate of appreciation of gold of more than 2% plus over almost two centuries and roughly 6% over the last quarter century. Some central bankers sell gold because they believe it is "barren". Almost all central banke

(Wed Jul 01 1998 09:11 - ID#427357)

Reporter: "Mr President, your recent trip to China allowed to talk to its leaders and gain first-hand insights into the long-lingering problem between the Sino-nation and Taiwan. What is do you think about the beleaguered nation of Taiwan?"

The President: "Well, I'll tell-ya. I am neither FOR nor AGAINST Taiwan, just to the contrary!"

(Wed Jul 01 1998 09:18 - ID#411331)
@ geoffs: I think it means that the CBs have created an
artificial oversupply of gold. What a surprise!
The real question is: What are they going to do
about it? I can answer that: Nothing. it is
all intentional.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 09:24 - ID#342376)
@ geoffs, thanks for posting, a little bit was left off from "Gold Watch" here it is...
Some central bankers sell gold because they believe it is "ba!
rren". Almost all central bankers would agree that a 2% real rate of appreciation of gold is a high return for a reserve asset. We demonstrate in The Gold Book Annual that there is a great discrepancy between the growth rates in gold demand in the WGC and GFMS data for the period 1991-1996. The WGC data indicates a rate of growth of gold demand roughly in line with the historical trend of perhaps 5% per annum. The GFMS data shows a trend rate of gold demand relative to a constant real gold price of 2%. The difference between the trend growth rates of demand and mine supply determine the trend in the real price of gold generated by "commodity" dynamics alone. The WGC data suggests a continuing high positive real return to gold; the GFMS data suggests a slightly negative real return. Since the attitudes of many central banks toward gold are greatly influenced by gold's perceived real rate of return, the difference between the GFMS and WGC gold statistics are very relevan!
t to the central bank issue.
 The WGC, in its work as a marketing arm of the gold mining industry, has developed extensive point of sale information that has produced an alternative more intensive and higher quality survey of global gold demand to that of GFMS. Concerned about central bank lending and selling, the producers who fund the WGC are shifting dwindling WGC resources from gold marketing to central banking issues. The great irony is that the Council's marketing efforts provided a quality demand survey that supports the strongest arguments that can be made to the official sector to stop selling and lending gold.
Only about one third of global gold mine production now supports the WGC. It is often argued that the WGC has spent huge sums on marketing with little in the way of results and that it should have allocated resources to the central banking issue. As we make abundantly clear in The Gold Book Annual, the gold market is now a jewelry market, and it is an increasingly modern market for luxury adornment jewelry. In South East Asia and to an increasing degree in the Middle East demands for luxury adornment jewelry now far overshadow atavistic propensities to hoard gold. For such a market, consumer marketing is productive. What is ironic is that the WGC's field work in consumer marketing has generated the strongest case the gold industry could make to the official sector to stop selling and lending gold. It would be a huge negative to the industry if short-sightedness led the industry to cripple its efforts in its two key markets: the global market for adornment jewelry and t!
he "market" of official gold holders. 

Veneroso Associates:
All portions of this work, copyright 1998, all rights reserved.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 09:26 - ID#285121)
Clinton's foriegn policy
is the same as any other, tell'em whatever they want to hear.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 09:27 - ID#263254)
Fiscal 2000 today for one state
I have "heard" that the state of Washington goes fiscal 2000 today. Should be interesting news abounding in the next couple of days, ey?

(Wed Jul 01 1998 09:27 - ID#342376)
@ rhody
I have asked Bill Murphy about the surprise reaction by one central banker in regards to the lease rate. I'll post his answer if he responds.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 09:28 - ID#248180)
Rupert wants an Assertive Australia not a supine one Re USA
Murdoch says Asian crisis may unleash trade war
Date: 01 Jul 1998 07:23:56
Service: AFX

NEW YORK ( AFX ) - News Corp chairman and chief executive Rupert Murdoch said:Asia's economic crisis is highly dangerous and may unleash an unprecedented trade war.
"This, I contend, is a tremendously dangerous time. We are dealing here with more than a normal currency crisis," he told the American-Australian Association's 50th anniversary dinner.
"Should the currencies of the region deteriorate further -- as they well might -- and America's trade deficit soars, as a result we may see, or we will see, a trade war and a wave of protectionism on a scale that we have not seen since the great depression."
Murdoch said Australia should attempt to exert a "modifying balancing influence on American behaviour" on the world stage and should become involved in the U.S. debate about its relationship with China, while at the same time try to exert an influence on the U.S. in its approach to southeast Asian economies.
"I wish that Australia had made its voice heard more loudly by the
Americans who formulated the policies that seemed to have destabilised
Indonesia. "In my view, a more assertive Australia will be a more valuable partner to America than the old-fashioned supine one.
"For instance -- and this is not a far-fetched idea -- what if a total meltdown takes place in Indonesia and 10 or so millions of people come over the little Timor Sea? Would anybody be interested?"

(Wed Jul 01 1998 09:31 - ID#36156)
While your character is formed by your circumstances, your own desires can do much to shape those circumstances. The one thing over which you have absolute control is your own thoughts. It is this that puts you in a position to control your own destiny.

Nature is at work around you. Character and destiny are her handiwork. She gives you love and hate, jealousy and reverence. All that is yours is the power to choose which impulse you follow.

You can at any time decide to alter the course of your life. No one can take that away from you.

You can do what you want to do.

You can be who you want to be.

Your greatest power is the power to choose.

Choose wisely ... I wish you well.


(Wed Jul 01 1998 09:33 - ID#147201)
tolerant re tornado
Sure hope this thing missed you. How close?

(Wed Jul 01 1998 09:39 - ID#374204)
Payback's a b*tch
I've been successfully deluded by the spin artists
that "Klinton's kowtow" would be pushing for RED China
Most Favored Nation trading status despite it's human
rights record. I thought that would be the main
embarassment he inflicted on the people he claims to
represent. But, wait for the end of the trip, and WHAM!

A ninja groin kick at Taiwan!

Bill - you are PATHETIC!!!

Just how much money did they contribute to the DNC? Was it worth it?
China has not bought it's way into the White House? Has not bought
US foreign policy concessions?

Disgraceful, Treasonous, Humiliating, Bewildering Outrageous Whore!

(Wed Jul 01 1998 09:43 - ID#248180)
Russia - "Such Gold is not Regarded as a Commodity" ? DAH ? NEYT?
Gov't Lifts Suspension on Bank Gold Exports

MOSCOW -- ( Interfax ) The suspension of licenses held by Russian banks for export of gold and other precious metals was lifted on Tuesday, senior official from the Foreign Trade Ministry Dmitri Sukhoparov said Tuesday.

"The suspension of the licenses of commercial banks for the export of precious metals from Russia as of June 22 was related to purely technical matters and had no political or economic undertones," Sukhoparov said.

"Nobody intends to revise the right of banks to conduct operations with precious metals," he said.

"The essence of the problem is that the importation of refined gold bullion or other precious metals is a banking, not foreign trade, operation because such gold is not regarded as a commodity," he said.

Consequently "the licensing of the exportation of refined gold by banks lies outside the competence of the Foreign Trade Ministry," Sukhoparov said. Yet that ministry has been placed in charge of licensing and has issued 19 export licenses this year, he said.

"The contradiction among legal documents regulating the procedure for exporting precious metals will be settled shortly through necessary amendments in appropriate regulations," Sukhoparov said.

He said a package of documents has been drafted for the purpose and will be submitted to the government for approval shortly.

"Not a single Russian commercial bank which holds a license to export precious metals has suffered any losses from the suspension of licenses," he said.

"During the week since the suspension only Rossiysky Kredit brought a consignment of gold to the northern customs office on June 23, and the question of its exportation was settled on an ad hoc basis," Sukhoparov said. (  ( c ) 1998 Interfax )

(Wed Jul 01 1998 10:01 - ID#284255)
Computer-Related Infrastructure Risks for Federal Agencies

Good article with some interesting examples in the appendix

(Wed Jul 01 1998 10:07 - ID#187109)
*gotta take credit*
Look it up yer archives.....


Date: Wed Jul 01 1998 03:07

aurator ( hubris and Nicknames ) ID#257148:



I am salty. As a result of ahhemm, coming on line and being less than circumspect. Someone suggested that my

language was too salty, I think I was upset at the gastroman cos this is what I found:


'Twas I that was calling you a salty one mate. I remember like it was yesterday...... ( about the same time I was short gold and long silver........missed the silver but I NAILED the gold ) ...............for some reason I cannot look it up. Perhaps you or Limey could look it up for me ( with your incredible databases;- ) You will find it if'n you look............uh huh. I take pride w/my nicknames ya' know................ watch this metals thingy


(Wed Jul 01 1998 10:10 - ID#20748)
The latest.

Gold Watch
Veneroso Associates
June 30,1998 Issue 06.06

John Brimelow William J Murphy III Frank Veneroso

The Gold Market
 European Central Bank Attitudes

We spent the last week in Europe discussing some of the analysis and conclusions of our
first edition of The Gold Book Annual with several central banks in Europe as well as some
producers, dealers, and the World Gold Council management in Geneva. Several issues struck us as
1 ) We have argued that Gold Fields Mineral Services' ( GFMS ) so-called "official statistics" on
the gold market understate global gold demand, borrowed gold flows, and the deficit in the gold
market. There appears to be a growing awareness of this. World Gold Council officials do not take
issue with our extrapolations of their gold demand data to overall global demand levels that exceed
GFMS levels. We were surprised to find that one of the major producers, apparently after having
done some research, has concluded that outstanding gold loans may approach 7000 tonnes---a figure
that is not far removed from our own estimate of 8000 tonnes. Whereas a year ago our views were
widely regarded as "wild" and "irresponsible", we now see growing credibility in our positions.
This coincides with some concessions on GFMS' part in revising upward their estimate of outstanding
gold loans by 950 tonnes and conceding the existence of fabricator and refinery borrowings.
2 ) The central banks appear to have taken GFMS' data on the gold market as fact. There may be no
awareness on their part that the gold market deficit could be understated. It is widely recognized
by central banks that their selling and lending of official gold is depressing the gold price, but,
owing to misleading GFMS data, they do not appreciate how severely it has been depressing the gold
3 ) This statistical issues are clearly very relevant to official sector behavior toward gold. We
argue that the central bank gold flows were on the order of 1100 tonnes per annum in the period
1994-1996 and were depressing the gold price from almost $600 to an average of $386. If we are
correct and if central bankers believed what we believe, central Banks would be less inclined to
lend and sell gold. From this perspective, the World Gold Council's field work has proved critical
to the central bank issue: without their Gold Demand Trends survey, there would be no alternative
demand survey to that of GFMS.
4 ) There is another way in which these statistical issues have a bearing on the behavior of
central banks toward gold. In The Gold Book Annual we show that, at a constant real gold price,
since the early 1800's, global gold fabrication demand has risen at roughly a 4.5% annual rate
whereas ex ante mine supply has risen at a 2.8% annual rate. Over the 25 years from 1971 to 1996,
at a constant real gold price, ex ante gold demand rose at a 6% rate while ex ante mine supply grew
at more than a 1.8% annual rate., In the absence of monetary and Western investment flows, the
gold market can clear ex post only if the real gold price rises sufficiently in real terms to
ration price elastic demand down to the level of price inelastic mine supply. By our calculations,
this implies a trend annual real rate of appreciation of gold of more than 2% plus over almost two
centuries and roughly 6% over the last quarter century. Some central bankers sell gold because
they believe it is "barren". Almost all central bankers would agree that a 2% real rate of
appreciation of gold is a high return for a reserve asset. We demonstrate in The Gold Book Annual
that there is a great discrepancy between the growth rates in gold demand in the WGC and GFMS data
for the period 1991-1996. The WGC data indicates a rate of growth of gold demand roughly in line
with the historical trend of perhaps 5% per annum. The GFMS data shows a trend rate of gold demand
relative to a constant real gold price of 2%. The difference between the trend growth rates of
demand and mine supply determine the trend in the real price of gold generated by "commodity"
dynamics alone. The WGC data suggests a continuing high positive real return to gold; the GFMS
data suggests a slightly negative real return. Since the attitudes of many central banks toward
gold are greatly influenced by gold's perceived real rate of return, the difference between the
GFMS and WGC gold statistics are very relevant to the central bank issue.
The WGC, in its work as a marketing arm of the gold mining industry, has developed
extensive point of sale information that has produced an alternative more intensive and higher
quality survey of global gold demand to that of GFMS. Concerned about central bank lending and
selling, the producers who fund the WGC are shifting dwindling WGC resources from gold marketing to
central banking issues. The great irony is that the Council's marketing efforts provided a quality
demand survey that supports the strongest arguments that can be made to the official sector to stop
selling and lending gold.
Only about one third of global gold mine production now supports the WGC. It is often
argued that the WGC has spent huge sums on marketing with little in the way of results and that it
should have allocated resources to the central banking issue. As we make abundantly clear in The
Gold Book Annual, the gold market is now a jewelry market, and it is an increasingly modern market
for luxury adornment jewelry. In South East Asia and to an increasing degree in the Middle East
demands for luxury adornment jewelry now far overshadow atavistic propensities to hoard gold. For
such a market, consumer marketing is productive. What is ironic is that the WGC's field work in
consumer marketing has generated the strongest case the gold industry could make to the official
sector to stop selling and lending gold. It would be a huge negative to the industry if
short-sightedness led the industry to cripple its efforts in its two key markets: the global
market for adornment jewelry and the "market" of official gold holders. 

Veneroso Associates:
All portions of this work, copyright 1998, all rights reserved.

Gold Watch
Veneroso Associates
July 1, 1998 Issue 06.07

John Brimelow William J. Murphy III Frank Veneroso

The Gold Market
 Evidence of Above Consensus Gold Lending From WGC

We estimate that there are 8000 tonnes of outstanding gold loans net of double counting.
People often ask, "Who borrowed so much gold?" The most visible source of gold lending is producer
hedging which, it is widely agreed, accounts for less than 3000 tonnes of gold borrowings.
In The Gold Book Annual we argue that gold loans to firms that produce and distribute
fabricated gold products might be on the order of 1500 tonnes. We arrived at this estimate from
two directions. First, we surveyed a few large gold fabricators and retailers. These inquiries
suggested that inventories at both the fabricator and retailer level might each approach one times
sales. Wholesalers must carry gold inventories as well. These initial inquiries suggested that
total inventories at all stages of the pipeline from manufacture to retailing may equal two times
sales. This is three times the ratio of value added in overall inventory relative to value added
in overall sales in the US economy. However, as a high value non-perishable good that takes little
space and undergoes no physical depreciation or obsolescence, inventories of gold in fabricated
products should have a high inventory to sales ratio. If global gold demand was roughly 4000
tonnes in the 1994-1996 period, inventories might have been 8000 tonnes worldwide. It was not hard
to imagine that 20% of these inventories---mostly at large fabrication firms in developed
countries---was financed by gold loans. Separate investigation into the degree to which large
fabricators in the industrialized countries borrowed the gold in their inventories, usually through
consignment stocks, supported this hypothesis.
We have presumed that retailers in the industrialized countries have little recourse to
gold borrowings. We also have assumed that small scale fabricators, particularly in the developing
countries, have no access to gold loan financing of inventory. If, in fact, they do, a higher
percent of global inventories of gold in the gold product pipeline would be likely. The World Gold
Council has just issued a small study, "Trends In Gold Banking" by Alan Doran that provides
evidence that gold inventory finance extends to small scale fabricators in developing countries and
to certain types of retailers.
Alan Doran accepts GFMS' data on total gold lending ( before GFMS' recent upward revision ) .
However, his report, which does not purport to be an exhaustive compilation, provides evidence of
gold lending to emerging economy fabricators and wholesalers as well as to retailers in the
industrialized countries.
Regarding gold lending in emerging markets, Doran states: "Gold based financing of
jewelers, using consignment stocks, in third country markets is a specialty of a minority of the
international bullion banks, including Bank of Nova Scotia and UBS. The former is particularly
active in DubaiUBS has a strong presence in Hong Kong and Saudi ArabiaRothschild is also strong
in South East AsiaIn MalaysiaStandard Charteredintroduced location swaps with Dubai wholesalers
to assist jewelry exporters, and basic gold lending."

"By offering gold financing through an international bullion bank, local banks, with whom
local family owned firms often prefer to deal, can often capture other banking business of jewelry
manufacturers in their area. In Malaysia, the entry of local banks into the bullion business,
often using consignment stocks, has allowed smaller traders to buy and borrow smaller amounts of
"An illustration of the practical details of gold-based financing for jewelers is provided
by the experience of Turkey, where the activity is growing fast, having been established for about
eighteen months. Some bankers point out that smaller jewelers have limitations as customers"
Regarding gold lending to retail markets, Doran comments: "Where jewelry is sold by mail
order and prices in catalogues have to be set in advance, bullion banks will sell gold forward to
the mail order company so that it is protected against price changes."
Alan Doran indicates that gold lending to jewelers in two of the largest markets---India
and China---has yet to develop. However, all in all he paints a picture of possibly extensive gold
lending to gold fabricators and wholesalers throughout the Middle East and South East Asia. Many
borrowers are quite small, with annual requirements of only 50 kilograms. His comment on gold
lending to mail order retailers opens the possibility of gold lending to large retailers in
general. His study suggests that gold financing of commercial inventories may be far more
pervasive globally and may extend to small firms and to retailers to a greater degree than we
Doran's descriptive reports do not convey any quantitative information on gold lending to
fabricators, wholesalers and retailers worldwide. However, by suggesting more market penetration
that we heretofore thought, we now feel more confident that our estimate of 1500 tonnes of gold
loans to gold fabricators, wholesalers, and retailers is accurate and possibly too low.
Remember, the higher the volume of gold loans outstanding, the higher the annual flows of
borrowed gold in prior years. The GFMS data does not even have a line item for borrowed gold flows
to fabricators, wholesalers, and retailers. The higher the flow of borrowed gold, the higher the
gold market deficit and the more official gold sales and loans have depressed the gold price.
Central bankers are increasingly scrutinizing the gold market's structure in the growing debate
over the role of gold in official reserves. Eventually, evidence that borrowed gold flows exceed
consensus estimates and have greatly depressed the gold price should positively influence central
bank attitudes toward their gold holdings.

Veneroso Associates:
All portions of this work, copyright 1998, all rights reserved.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 10:26 - ID#284255)
Interesting Man...
In addition to dealing with malicious acts, infrastructure reliability and availability is vital. The recent Alan Greenspan disclosure of a New York bank computer failure a few years ago makes me shudder. The Federal Reserve bailed the bank out with a loan of $20 billion. Greenspan admitted that if the loan could not have been supplied, or if other banks simultaneously had the same problem, the entire banking system could have become unstable. Such ``information outages'' are probably common, but, as with this case, covered up to avoid public panic.

How far away are we from major catastrophes? Will it be Y2K? What would happen if, due to outages, international companies start defaulting on debt payments resulting in business failures? Is there any protection from the resulting mushrooming effect? International information outages could make power and telecommunication outages seem like small inconveniences.
Computer Security in Aviation: Vulnerabilities, Threats, and Risks
Total integration. Security, safety, and reliability of the aviation infrastructure must be thoroughly integrated throughout the entire infrastructure, addressing computer systems, computer networks, public-switched networks, power-transmission and -distribution facilities, the air-traffic-control infrastructure, and all of the interactions and interdependencies among them.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 10:39 - ID#348129)
@NJ _ THANKS for the Veneroso Updates - These are the kind of posts we need more of !
8000 TONNES of SHORTED GOLD. Veneroso will be proven right and the POG will soar. When? My best guess now will be early to mid 1999, oops sorry 99 as my brain is not Y2K compliant yet.....
When it blows it's gonna blow big.
For the moment it's a question of not losing your shirt......

Mtn Bear (SE)
(Wed Jul 01 1998 10:41 - ID#347267)
Question: CompGeek and other Computer Experts:
Is the following a viable "Silver Bullet" re Y2k?

My read is a temporary-delaying tactic for perhaps PC's only? Thks in Advance.

Mtn Bear

(Wed Jul 01 1998 10:53 - ID#284255)
That silver bullet was discussed here recently.

But I think it's only one when they need a few dozen.

The only complete fix is to turn off the power.
Then there's nothing to fix.
And we can all sit on an Island
And drink Pina Colada's.

Mtn Bear (SE)
(Wed Jul 01 1998 10:54 - ID#347267)
@EJ your 0810
K. knows exactly what he is doing. What he knows how to do best:

Screw People. ( Anyone if it serves his purposes ) .

(Wed Jul 01 1998 10:56 - ID#93232)
The morning paper's got an article about American consumer confidence in June hitting a 29-year high. I wonder what that'll look like in November.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 11:01 - ID#348129)
@Mtn Bear - Y2K
The main problem is not in PC's / networks, it's in the large mainframe systems that companies all require.
In short, there is no quick fix, each program and file has to be analized and correct, and the system and all the interfaces re-tested.
This may sound simple but work on some systems could take 3 years to complete. Some companies have already missed the boat, and will be making continency procedures to survive.
Prorammers are in major demand, I was just offered a contract in Orlando and when I asked what the rate was they just said the Rate was open. Hmmmmm, getting awfull tempting to change jobs.....
I would also think that office temps will be in major demand in 99 and beyond to take over manual processes for systems that have failed or simply didn't make the deadline.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 11:04 - ID#187109)
Saw an ad in IBD
It was for '98 Silver Eagles.....uncirculated. Min/limit order is only 20. $6.95/per coin + $9.00 s/h. Hmmmmmmmm... This coin is cool looking. I am leaning........It's only 150 bucks for a little beauty..........go silver ( ? ) ...........

go plat :-$ ) ( ! ) !!!! I regret that I am only knee-deep in Oct Plat this time........will 'they' try to sell it into the ground this time?? or........will they just 'join up' and ENJOY the the dips? ohmy! cha-ching$


I'm goin' to hell in a bucket, baby~~

at least I'm enjoyin' the ride~~~


------------------------ find a bucket..........with bucket seats and A/C and a ten disc CD changer.......and a built in cooler...................and 450 horsepower.............and five speeds........and a little doggy in the back window that 'bobs' his head............


(Wed Jul 01 1998 11:05 - ID#285121)
strat: Must be anticipating a traditional October reversal
As I am. No big move in gold until after equities fall.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 11:10 - ID#207145)
Those numbers will still look good in Nov. This economy will not slow meaningfully without rate increases. Have you noticed the XOI this morning. Oil is up 7.35 or so. Bottom in place. Only Asia will cause harmm, as oil is severely over-sold.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 11:12 - ID#347235)
You are right about the people believing too much of Dan Blather and Peter ( non High School Graduate ) . If more reporters would simply speak the truth instead of their own opinions however we would be better off.

BTW Iam RETIRED Soldier not Old Soldier, small difference except he vastly outranks me and I think is a little older. We have exchanged e-mails and are friends .

(Wed Jul 01 1998 11:14 - ID#207145)
When Asia does improve,
Gold, oil will start improving, the markets will begin to fall. Asia will start improving after its 3rd leg leg down in Oct. So 2nd quarter 99 for gold, oil.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 11:14 - ID#93232)
I am anticipating traditional October reversal. Along with a drop in the dollar. I'm planning on trip to Europe ( don't like the idea of travel next year ) so I'm buying currency now.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 11:14 - ID#285121)
Dow 9000 = sell signal for insiders.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 11:15 - ID#45173)
More on Taiwan
Most of the regulars here know my wife is Taiwanese and that most of her family is in Taiwan, so you know I have vested interests there. I've been to Taiwan about a dozen times, most recently for my wife's younger sister's wedding. What a blast!

China has wanted to get Taiwan into the fold for a long time because Taiwan represents a challenge to China's internal political control. The message of Taiwan is that Chinese living in freedom under capitalism and democracy can achieve great prosperity. Several political parties inside Taiwan that are comprised of members of the Chinese minority support unification. But the government and military are controlled by Taiwanese who were voted in by the Taiwanese majority. They have as much interest in handing over their nation to China as Mexico does to give up national sovereignty to the US. They have been arming themselves for the past 20 years to defend against a Chinese attack, which they view as an eventuality. Last time I was there, my wife's family and friends kept asking us when we thought China might attack them, as if by virtue of being Americans we'd somehow know what China was up to.

The reason China has not simply invaded Taiwan already is that Taiwan is so well defended. Not only does Taiwan buy a lot of weapons with its US$23B trade surplus but has a very significant weapons industry of their own, cranking out hundreds of IDF jet fighters per year, for example. I worked for a company that sold them computers to run military radar installations. The plan was for 200 radar sites, 50 on one side of the island, 150 facing the Chinese mainland. This has been going on for more than 20 years. The Chinese can't drop a canoe into the water with hostile intent without the Taiwanese filling the straits with a swarm ships and planes.

Prescribes The Art of War, "Do not besiege a walled city." The Taiwanese in particular have proven to be more skillful and tenacious defenders than most. Just ask the Japanese. And they are not counting on any help from anyone. China wants to take Taiwan by political means. A couple of years ago the Chinese began to allow Taiwanese into China. They are trying to appear more open to capitalism and democracy, and to win over the hearts and minds of Taiwanese people. Keep in mind that this is a nation where before you watch a movie in a public theater, you have to stand and sing the national anthem. In their hearts and minds they are the nation of Taiwan, not some piece of China.

But the Chinese efforts to appear friendly and open are a means to an end. China seeks to control Asia. What might inspire the Chinese to attack? I'm not sure. But we must watch the area closely.


Mtn Bear (SE)
(Wed Jul 01 1998 11:17 - ID#347267)
@blooper re oil
Oil stocks on the move this am:^XOI&d=1d

(Wed Jul 01 1998 11:18 - ID#182184)
Y2K Silver Bullet Won't Work
The Y2K "Silver Bullet" will work on simple stand-alone hardware ( such as your PC ) , but that's about all. That won't fix the Y2K problems with financial systems; it'll only make things worse. A few simple examples of why that won't work:

- You deposit money in your bank on December 31, 1999. In January 2000, with the system clock set back to January 1990, your bank's system won't recognize a deposit made in 1999.

- Some banks and companies will be ready and some won't. Electronic transactions and checks simply won't work with dates that are years apart.

- Most billing systems ( e.g. Your phone company ) won't be able to calculate a bill that spans from mid-month to mid-month.

- Electrical distribution and Telephone systems won't work ( synchronize ) if one location has a date that that is years apart.

Mtn Bear (SE)
(Wed Jul 01 1998 11:20 - ID#347267)
Sorry, man; you 'way ahead of me. ( Just saw your prev post )

(Wed Jul 01 1998 11:20 - ID#207145)
Britain has raised 6 times,
still cant stop the economy. Asia, however is slowing it for Brits. Recession in Britain is likely fairly soon. So is a bull market in gold. We are a ways behind them.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 11:23 - ID#285121)
EJ: What might inspire China to attack ?
Assurance that the U.S. will not help Taiwan. Clinton just gave it to em.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 11:23 - ID#207145)
Mtn Bear
10-4 thanks.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 11:25 - ID#207145)
Mtn Bear,
I checked the chart anyway. It was a good one.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 11:26 - ID#350179)
Pakistan Pre-emptive Strike Plans?

(Wed Jul 01 1998 11:27 - ID#373284)
chas, Namaste' yes, it missed us...but the good part...Slim Pickens ghost
showed up to warn us...neighbors new and old...a grand old time was had by ALL...oh NOT...under any circumstances spill Youngs Ale into you keyboard...Aghhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh ( slim margins for the fin that shares )

(Wed Jul 01 1998 11:29 - ID#255151)

Any talk/rumors of Taiwan acquiring nukes? If I were in their shoes, I'd be hell bent to get a nuclear force.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 11:29 - ID#390415)
Thank you EJ for your encouraging comments on Taiwan. Clinton's comments were an embarassment to me as an American.

Perhaps someday I will understand the rationale for our country's posture in this matter.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 11:29 - ID#260389)
Short lived rally. XAU dropping like a stone. Down almost 3% and falling. I think the shorts have got it right.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 11:29 - ID#286230)
U.S. excluded from new cultural forum
The vultures are planning head

(Wed Jul 01 1998 11:30 - ID#253153)
We have just entered into a recession in the US.
The purchasing managers report came out this morning reading at 49.6%.
Any reading below 50% means contracting economy. Again, this is only the beginning but it will intensify as time passes.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 11:30 - ID#207145)
re; Oil,
I am aware that part of the 8.50 Xoi ia a relief-oversold rally, but so is much of this sucker rally we are in. Liquidity has a great deal to do with it. Europe is the safest and fairly lucreative place to be. I will sell into strength around 20th of July, and go fishing till Nov. 1.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 11:34 - ID#35571)
The sound of bear feet
11:14 DOLLAR UP 0.1% TO 138.80 YEN, UP 0.6% TO 1.8189 MARK.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 11:34 - ID#207145)
Gold just needs more hype from Japan.
Gold is like a nervous girl that needs lots of encouragement before she will give you some. This is a little Yen rally. Gold would be blasting straight up if this had legs.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 11:36 - ID#284255)
MtnBear - here's an overview
Unofficial Smallish Comp.Software.Year-2000 FAQ

And a gulp to you sir - a l o n g o n e.

Aragorn III
(Wed Jul 01 1998 11:37 - ID#212323)
tolerant one... Treasures I have, that exceed the number of my name...
and inspiration in a world that shall not seem quite the same. Your gift is a statement, and the message received loud and clear.

I ) A Divine Statement of greeting to be worn as fabric upon my chest;
II ) An Argent Statement of liberty and honesty descending from ages past;
III ) A Helvetian Statement of golden means to unify the world of men;
IV ) A Priceless Statement of human potential, a lighted path through darkness traveled with a friend.

A heartfelt Namaste' to one who knows the Sun and Moon as though they were his own children.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 11:38 - ID#219136)
What kind of sexist comment is that? BTW, Go Gold.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 11:38 - ID#350179)
Us and Them, RE RJ
Pink Floyd Over The Moon In June Certs
After a quarter of a century, sales for Pink Floyd's "The Dark Side Of The Moon" continue in interstellar overdrive: The veteran British band's 1973 Capitol landmark was certified for sales of 15 million in June by the Recording Industry Assn. of America. "Dark Side" became the second Pink Floyd album to surpass 15 million units-the group's 1979 set "The Wall" stands at 22 million to date.

I guess it went gold & platinum a while back ( cursory topic marker )

(Wed Jul 01 1998 11:40 - ID#365216)
to Mr. Year2000

So what is the bottom line? Should we pull all our money out of
the banks, buy food reserves, and get ready for long term self-sufficiency or not?

I don't see any half-way point: we either believe civil disruption
will occur or it won't.

Last week I starting rinsing and filling my 2 liter pop bottles
with water. Two years from now, they may be worth a fortune.
Now, they are free. What a ROI!!!

(Wed Jul 01 1998 11:43 - ID#343259)
Mtn Bear re Y2k Silver Bullet
There are many strategies to dealing with the problem. No one strategy will be best for all situations. To determine the best course of action, will require some thought. All programmers I know are optimists, as Fred Brooks points out in "Mythical Man Month". "The code *should* work!". However, the difference between the pristine mental realm, where everything "fits together", and "no problems are seen", is soon apparent when you begin implementation. Every problem will come to light sooner or later, including ones you didn't plan for. It is here that the differences between the building contractor and the computer "contractor", ( a sometimes useful analogy ) are most evident. If the building contractor has a floor that is not level, at least he can correct that before moving onto the next phase. A logical error in many cases cannot be determined ( in the computer contractor side of the analogy ) often until the whole system is developed.

This is a somewhat long-winded introduction to my comments on your question. The problems you don't expect are the ones that will cause the most problems. I think that for most PC users, they just "assume" that, "It's just a date", therefore If I do a setback 28 years, all will be well. In some cases they will be right, and I expect this strategy to be used a lot. But the operating system, dates on files, storage of backups, restore procedures, and other "background" tasks should be monitored much more closely. Since in my own experience VERY FEW people actually back up, and ALMOST NONE do it in a methodical manner, I rather suspect some "problems" to occur. No one told you that if you corrupted your operating system, that you would have to spend the better part of a day to reconstruct/reload. You might have assumed that you were "different" that other people didn't have to go through that. Well, expect more of that sort of problem, with this strategy, unmonitored. Since, by definition, the people adopting this strategy are not in the habit of backing up, are not aware of what their operating system does and doesn't do, and "don't have the time" to do anything else, I daresay they won't have the "time" to try it out, and if they do, they won't even take basic precautions about saving the data. I don't predict a nice picnic, in other words.

As to a silver bullet, I wouldn't characterise it as that, at all. Merely a strategy for dealing with PC based non-interfaced computers, and not necessarily a great one at that. But, if you don't have the time, or the money, or the inclination, or anything else, it will be adopted. Advice: Make a backup. Test. Test. Test.

My .01

(Wed Jul 01 1998 11:46 - ID#269191)
JP: The Purchasing Managers Report.
It really means the manufacturing sector is in a recession--not the
entire economy. But I agree with where you were going with the post.
The trade deficit is killing the manufacturing sector and the weakness
will spread eventually to the rest of the economy. Soon the Fed will
be forced to lower short-term interest rates to bring the dollar down
and "stimulate" the economy. Stagflation should be the result with
a big bull market in gold.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 11:47 - ID#343259)
Correction missed part of my comparison...
Between the pristine mental realm, and the nitty-gritty physical realm

(Wed Jul 01 1998 11:48 - ID#253153)
US government surplus this year to turn into a deficit by year end
A recessionary trend is developing now and soon government receipts from taxes will decline , but their overhead costs probably will stay the same or increase. As corporate and individuals tax payments decline, the US government will be forced to either reduce expenditures
or sell additional bonds to raise needed capital. I suspect that legislation will be introduce in congress to lower personal and corporate income taxes. The federal reserve will also lower the discount rate and interest rates in general will decline.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 11:49 - ID#212197)
@Mtn Bear (SE) (Question: CompGeek and other Computer Experts:
Your 10:41

I find the web advertisment you'r pointing to interesting. They seem to be talking only about automated Y2K correction of administrtative software ( i.e., business software ) . They do not mention how they tested it.

A Y2K compliant proof test requires that the application is run on a computer on which the system date is set to the year 2000. Such a test is not sufficient if the changed code continues to run under the current system date correctly. They do not mention this Y2K critical test. This is exactly the reason why professionally correct testing is very often more expensive than the actual code analysis and code correction itself. When this type of Y2K testing ( i.e., under a system date which is set to 31-DEC-99 and 01--1-2000 ) is not performed I wouldn't buy into this solution. If it is performed, they cannot say it is simple and cheap.

The above is my first comment to this web advertisement.

Second comment: the most insidious danger of the Y2K problem appears in systems which depend on embedded chips, like the electrical power supply and the telecommunication networks. Both industries are absolutely indispensible for the survival of industrialized societies. Both industries are in a stonewalling mode in their information policy about where they stand in their attempts to solve the Y2K problem. ( To me it is in the meantime most scary when it is denied that there is a problem. I know too much about the technical side of how critical the situation is in the telecommunication industry. )

Compared to the embedded chips problem, the administrative software correction problem seems only number three in my personal assessment of the total Y2K threat.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 11:50 - ID#207145)
Oil, Xoi,
up 9.39. Ah, what a relief it is.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 11:50 - ID#284255)
Why many will buy gold???
Will it be the prophesy or the reality?
It matters not if that's the way of the people.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 11:52 - ID#207145)
Gold isn't through,
As shaky as it is, is going higher till around July 20.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 11:53 - ID#147201)
tolerant1 Slim Pickens
Always a favorite. It's just like him, thank God you missed

(Wed Jul 01 1998 11:54 - ID#354133)
Auric, EJ --Taiwan
PRC suspects it. USA knows it. But official channels CANNOT admit to it - you won't find it written anywhere. Taiwan has the hardware.

Goldsters - Will we have a repeat this year? Remeber last 4th of July - the great gold & silver slam dunk? Everybody loves to take profits and have a worry-free weekend. And shorties love to work on 3-day weekends.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 11:54 - ID#207145)
Japan to announce permanent tax cuts,
This Jap PR birrage to continue thru mid July.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 12:01 - ID#373284)
For me...a privilege...most certainlythese words you have sent my waya candle shall be lit in YOUR HONORI go now to the GREAT LAWN of contemplationceremonythe lighting of the candle

And a Morgan shall be tossed unto the seabeneath the sands of time she shall wait until awakened

America is alive and well.in the next few days I shall make my way to visit Lady Libertyat the base of the statue a candle will be lit


(Wed Jul 01 1998 12:02 - ID#284255)
One type of paradise.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 12:04 - ID#238422)
John Disney
Brother, read blooper's 11:35 post.
Is he a sex maniac or what? Poor girls....

(Wed Jul 01 1998 12:06 - ID#57232)
Your 7:52 post -- worth its weight in Gold, Thoughts about Gold
jims: Your post at 7:52 is what Kitco is all about -- I agree with you that the Gold 'civil' war is not over, and that it is quite possible that Gold will probably be sold 'on the news' of Japan restructuring. We have to play Gold like it is -- neither in a bear or bull. For now.

Personally, I do not trust F Veneroso's information completely. I think the FV group is backpedaling on their prediction of a gold bull this year, based on the fact that 'they did not realize the bearish mindset of the CB's toward gold'. I think the FV newsletter is useful for determining fundamental trends, but I think it is of little value in determining the technical trends in gold that we all need.

What do we know? We know the CB's have a powerful method of suppressing the price of gold with various derivatives trades, and the dollar/gold carry. We also know that the US dollar is 'stronger' than expected, hence gold is 'weaker' than expected. The CB's know exactly what they are doing with regard to interest earned on their gold leases, and so does the BIS. Actually 1% earned is not that bad if they are earning more interest on borrowed US treasuries -- but of course that is only on gold that they did not loan to someone else -- like a Gold mining company. I don't know how much of the gold is loaned to others, and how much is being loaned directly by the CB's to buy securities. Too bad FV does not give us a breakdown of who got the 8000 tonnes of loaned gold.

I think that when gold does start to rise, it will be because the CB's want it to, taking a lesson from the 60's and 70's. It will rise fairly slowly, unless they lose control. Unlikely, unless the CB's run out of gold to loan. If gold starts to rise rapidly, we should head for the 'storm shelters', and US paper will burn -- also unlikely for now. Too many other currencies burning right now. The US dollar will only be in jeopardy when all other currencies have burned, with the possible exception of the Japanese Yen.

I think the only thing that would give us a gold bull right now with the bearish trends in SEAsia, and possibly South America -- would be a war or energy crisis. Otherwise, we play gold/gold stocks short to intermediate term only. Perpetual gold bull bugs are going to get squashed for some time to come.

Keep your powder dry.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 12:09 - ID#284255)
E-mail from hell
from the Australian ( online e-mail newsletter )
Net News 11 May 1998 ( )

Newsbytes today reports an e-mail version of the Sorcerer's Apprentice: Tim
Durkin, deputy prosecutor of Spokane County, was out of the office a few
days last week, so he programmed his PC to auto reply to any e-mails. But he
inadvertently flagged each reply to be sent to all 2,000 users on the
network - and worse, requested confirmation for each message. Within four
hours of Durkin walking out the door, 150,000 e-mails had blitzed the
system. Even though technicians disable the commands, Durkin returned to
work to find 48,000 messages sitting in his e-mail and has been receiving
1,500 a day since.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 12:21 - ID#187109)
*Gold is just caught in the middle*
The real MANIPULATIONS belong to the currency markets.


c'mon.....a rumor about a rumor about a rumo ( u ) r about a knee-jerk ( s ) .....what a pile of CRAP....... ten lbs of it stuffed into a 5 lb bag..........don't step in it...especially if it's burnin' ;- ) }



What I read was:

( fade in with phone ringing ) ......

RR is shown in his Jammies just puttin his ( happy filled thoughts ) head on the pillow........... ( he acts a little miffed cause Mrs. RR had a terrible headache ) ...

"Hello", says RR.

( code in that movie WallStreet ) ..."Mr. Tiger will be eating tofu tonight"......

( RR hangs up.....and with 'a wee bit-o-step' to him he launches for the 'puta to call the 'Grand Islands'.....

( RR voice on the other end of the shows some Prez of one of those 'secret' banks reaction ) ...... ( which is all but a schmirck ) .....

"Blue Toads dance in the", says the voice.

( fades out to Al on the treadmill................. ) ...........


And everyone goes to sleep like babes in the woods..........yup. And that's how it's done. ( ho hum ) .......... ( to be a politician wielding such large sticks ) ...........nah..............I'd rather not stoop.


and gold suffers............. ( duh ) ......................

Steve in TO__A
(Wed Jul 01 1998 12:23 - ID#209265)
EJ - concerning Clinton & Taiwan
You said:

"Taiwan belongs to the Taiwanese, not the Chinese, and the Chinese in Taiwan were moved out of power by political means. The president of Taiwan is Taiwanese. "

- Maybe you understand that Taiwanese people are not Chinese, and maybe I do, but very few people in the US press know that, and I'm sure Clinton is totally oblivious to the fact, and would want to remain oblivious even if he knew.

Most Americans think of Taiwan as a Chinese island to which Chiang-Kai Shek retreated when he lost the civil war to the communists. I think it would be a good idea for the Taiwanese people to mount a publicity campaign in the US to inform the US public about themselves. They could point out their independent history, their different culture, their different language, etc..

"Why does Clinton want a deny this prosperous, hard-working people the democratic national sovereignty they have fought so hard to acheive? I don't think he realizes that's what he's doing. "

Oh come on, EJ. You know as well as I do that Clinton wants to deny this prosperous, hard-working people the democratic national sovereignty they have fought so hard to acheive because he's in the back pocket of the Chinese government. One of the best truisms about being involved in corruption is that you've got to keep getting involved more deeply to avoid being found out. Clinton took Chinese money to help in his '96 campaign, and he knows he's finished if it is confirmed. This means that the Chinese gov't has serious blackmail capability over him, and all of his associates who have been involved in the funds transfer.

I don't know if you noticed the little official announcements slipped into an otherwise momentous occasion about the fact that the Chinese government has "concluded its investigation" into the possibility of funds being funnelled into US elections via Chinese nationals and had found that no instances were found. An obviously relieved Clinton said that was just what he expected.

The Chinese could depose Clinton by suddenly "discovering" and making public just the right information about how funds went to the DNC through Clinton-connected channels. They know that Clinton will do anything to stay in office- and they've got him and they've got him by the balls, so-to-speak.

There's another reason the Chinese can yank Clinton's chain and have him dance the way they want, though. China holds one of the keys to the survival of the world's ( and the US's ) economic system. Central bankers and economists around the world know that if China devalues it will lead to economic catastrophe. China also has large holdings of US debt. Not as much as Japan, but enough that if they sell their treasuries they could prick the US bubble.

This is the real reason Clinton is in China. He's trying to build more economic links with China that will increase their stake in the prosperity of the US economy and that will help them earn the foreign exchange to keep their economic boat afloat and work out their banking system problems and maintain a stable currency.

Of course with Clinton there's always a personal political agenda, and nobody is more aware than he is that his survival in office in the face of his numerous scandals depends on the state of the US economy. Clinton is relentlessly focused on political survival. I predict you will see him continuing to try to avoid the media on scandal issues, which he delegates to other people and knows won't bring him down anyway unless his job popularity ratings ( which depend on the economy ) fall dramatically. You will see him taking a very hands-on approach, even to the point of taking political risks, to things which affect the economy. That is why he was willing to appear in the massacre square in spite of what he knew would be huge political costs at home. That is why he held a press conference in May, when an economic crisis was threatening, after weeks of avoiding the press to prevent questions about Monica Lewinsky being tossed at him.

China can bring down the US economy, Taiwan can't, and in the light of all this realpolitik Taiwan is just a poker chip to Clinton- a blue one maybe, but not one that he's going to do anything with other than bargain it away.

The Taiwanese are going to have to look out for themselves until Clinton is gone- but I think they might be surprised at how effective a policy of increasing the political costs to Clinton of their betrayal might be. Everything Clinton does is based on a political cost/benefit calculation.

- Steve

(Wed Jul 01 1998 12:25 - ID#147201)
Sharefin re Paradise
Boy! If that doesn't make you want come, you can't go anywhere. Look out! One day you never know.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 12:29 - ID#253153)
EJ-- A breach of contract
I was under the impression that the US and Taiwan has a mutual defense treaty. If the reports coming out of China are correct and Clinton did sell out Taiwan, than our word is NOT good any longer and will be viewed that way by many other countries.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 12:37 - ID#244418)
A Tide in the Affairs of Men
Sunspot cycles and periods of mass human excitability:
( current cycle due to peak in 2000 ) .

(Wed Jul 01 1998 12:37 - ID#147201)
Steve in To re taiwan
I have to agree with you in the extreme. Mainly, Clinton is oblivious to anything that does not promote his personal greed. Many thanx, Charlie

(Wed Jul 01 1998 12:43 - ID#350179)
Chinese President praises Hong Kong leadership ( Taiwan & Macao segue )

Many German youths ignorant about Nazi past ( Forget the past )

Ice Cap Shrinkage ( just another thing to worry about... )

24k CD's ( gold being promoted somewhere )

(Wed Jul 01 1998 12:45 - ID#93232)
JP 11:48
Federal surplus has been smoke & mirrors from the start. There is no federal surplus, just some of that there "fancy accounting". Take away dipping into Social Security by Feds and its still a deficit. The media loves it though, and so do the politicians. There will be hell to pay, someday. ( Oh no, I'm starting to rhyme...I've read too much of tolerant1 )

(Wed Jul 01 1998 12:45 - ID#72316)
sounds sane to me
copied off of S.I,, a little long , but I think quite logical...

To: Ray Hughes ( 1305 )
From: Vieserre
Tuesday, Jun 30 1998 9:12PM ET
Reply # of 1343

Gold, Its Price, and the FED. Ray, thanks for responding. I would have replied earlier,
but been away. I would like to continue the dialogue as it facilitates my thinking.

GOLD AS A MEDIUM OF EXCHANGE. Undeniably, gold has been diminished in its
utility as a medium of exchange due to the advent of modern central banking and the use
of government debt. But this utility has not been abandoned and still retains value, much
in the same way the dollar still retains its value even though its use may be diminished by
the use of credit cards, checks and electronic money. Moreover, it is far from an ancient
relic as many now profess. It is still viably being used as a medium of exchange in parts
of the world such as India where one can deposit, like paper currency, gold in a bank
and receive interest in kind. Further, gold has many inherent qualities that are far
superior to paper as a medium of exchange including, intrinsic value, resistance to
destruction, not another's debt, constant marginal utility and many more well known
characteristics which have favored it as a medium of exchange for the past millennium
and which will cause it be used for the foreseeable future. Still further, gold is more
stable in price than paper currency and that is a principal reason why gold lease rates
are so low, and also why many favor a return to a gold standard.

GOLD AS A STORE OF VALUE. Gold's role as a store of value has been much
debated lately with conflicting conclusions, depending on the time in question. But, even
if it will not buy the same suit today as you contend, owing to gold's relationship to
general price, it will always buy a suit which cannot be said for many a "once upon a
time" paper currencies.

HOARDAGE OF GOLD. Although I do not store gold, I respect the practice. A
hoarder of gold does not necessarily store it for the purpose of accumulating wealth
through appreciation of the asset. Some store it as insurance against the failure of paper
to preserve wealth, an important difference. This prudent practice has served many well,
particularly in other countries. Yes, there is a risk of seizure, as you contend, but in the
US and many other civilized countries, one cannot take property without due process.
And in any event, there should be ample forewarning to protect the asset from such
seizure. Further, if seizure is a concern, one can place it in a safe-haven like Switzerland.
In particular dire times, one may not be able to travel to access the gold as you suggest,
but would it not be better to have gold when it is needed and worry about access than
have no gold at all.

When gold was "demonitized" ( so called ) in 1971, it was thought that this would reduce
gold's exchange value since a main share of gold demand at that time rose from the
paper currencies promise to pay. The thinking was that once this demand was removed,
gold would become cheaper - and the then dishonored paper to pay gold would turn to
a premium over gold. Well, this did not happen. In less than a decade the dollar went to
a 90% discount in terms of gold with a commensurate rise in inflation and loss in
purchasing power of the dollar

This evidences two important aspects of gold. The first is that when permitted to float, it
will be valued as a monetary asset; and secondly, it will seek a price related to general
price. This relationship of gold to general price has been evidenced for thousands of
years and resultantly has been used as a reliable predicator or foreshadower of general
price. The weekly gold charts at the Ed Yardini web site visually picture this relationship
between the price of gold and general price as evidenced by the PPI, Oil and CRB. As
easily seen, although there may be variations in amplitude, gold usually, and at times
remarkably consistently, leads a change in the trend of these prices - sometimes a year
or so in advance- sometimes less. And gold's present price appears to be consistent
with recent disinflation which it has predicted so well.

Importantly, gold appears to perform this predictive behavior independently and in spite
of supply/demand affects on it in its role as a commodity such as any changes in
producer supply, CB selling , fabrication demand etc. Arguably, this must be so if it is
indeed a predictor of general price. To conclude otherwise would mean that such CB
selling, hedging etc can significantly change the predictive behavior of gold vis a vie
general price and seriously undermine its role as a price forecaster.

The reason that gold may be able to maintain a price level relative to general price
without being materially skewed by supply and demand as a commodity may be due to
its "constant marginal utility", which makes it so valuable as a medium of exchange. If
one assumes that gold establishes a price relatively independent of supply and demand,
then this may explain ( i ) why so many commodity analysts who rely principally on
demand/supply considerations for gold as a commodity are seemingly so often wide of
the mark; ( ii ) why at times, gold fails to substantially rise, or will even fall, when supply
cannot keep up with physical demand; ( iii ) why the sale of Australian gold did not
influence the price of gold as much as the subsequent announcement; and ( iv ) why gold
continued to drop in tandem with disinflation notwithstanding record producer supply/
fabrication deficits. This would also account for effectiveness of the gold carry trade and
hedging as none of this could occur unless there was sufficient demand for the sale of
leased gold rising from such activity at a particular price level. It would also account for
the fairly stable price of gold.

OUTLOOK FOR THE PRICE OF GOLD. If a premise that gold relates primarily to
general price and not supply/demand considerations as a commodity, is correct - and I
do not claim it to be so, only that it may be so perceived ( and I recognize the
vulnerability of my argument as I have done appropriate research on the issue,
commodity analysis is not my forte, and this is at odds with conventional thinking ) - then
one would expect gold to be principally responsive to economic and monetary
considerations that bear on general price, and it will rise when it anticipates, and in
advance of, a rise in the general price of items such as noted in the Yardini charts. And
fall conversely. Thus, if one is anticipating a rise in gold, one should look primarily for
inflationary reasons that would cause a rise in general price such as fall in the dollar,
trade deficit, rising interest rates, etc. Conversely, if one expects that the current
disinflationary trend will continue, remain flat, or worsen, then one should expect gold to
react accordingly. And, any response in a movement in price of gold due to factors
bearing solely on it as a commodity should be looked at as transitory in nature absent
other factors that would affect a change in general price.

expects a continued strong economy with low inflation, I would agree with your view
that silver may be a better call based on supply/demand factors as a commodity - and
perhaps this is how Buffet and Soros view it. ( I appreciate your comment on the
difficulty in finding silver, as I was not aware of this; but would this not be so from the
beginning of time ) Conversely, if one expects inflation to significantly rise, then one may
expect gold's performance to be superior, in large dependent on the percentage increase
in general price.

THE FED, CB SELLING, AND THE PRICE OF GOLD. IMO, nothing that you have
stated meaningfully corroborates your apparent belief that the FED and other CBs
intervene to establish a gold price by buying or selling gold or derivatives thereof in
order to influence general price. Yes, I am aware of Greenspan's opinion on gold. But, I
am also aware that former FED member Alan Binder when being interviewed on FED
policy and being specifically asked, "How important is the price of Gold in setting forth
monetary policy", he replied: "GOLD I WOULD SAY HAS ABOUT AS CLOSE TO
reportedly has made similar statements. In addition, for reasons similar to that
contended as to why intervention in Yen, as a currency, will fail unless fundamental
economic steps are taken to warrant a higher Yen, any such attempted intervention in
the price of gold, as a currency, would seemingly also fail unless monetary steps were
taken to moderate the general price. Clearly, if gold could be sold by governmental
authorities to lower the general price of items including oil, all OPEC would have to do
is to buy gold to rise the price of oil. I do not see it working that way.

Conversely, I can accept, as suggested by some economists, that the FED may use the
price of gold as signal of monetary demand and influence the general price by monetary
means and thereby the price of gold. For example, If gold rises, it may be construed as
signal that there is surplus liquidity in the banking system and the FED should withdraw
the surplus. Conversely, if gold drops in price.






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Steve in TO__A
(Wed Jul 01 1998 12:47 - ID#209265)
Auric, gunrinner, EJ- Taiwan's nuclear weapons program . . .
has been floating around the rumour mills for a few years. Nukes are the obvious solution to Taiwan's problem, and indeed have been a neccessity ever since China became a nuclear power. The rumours are that their technical help came mainly from Israel.

Taiwan also has lots of serious conventional weaponry, including the supersonic cruise missles that would be so important for taking out Chinese ships should a cross-channel invasion be attempted.

- Steve

(Wed Jul 01 1998 12:49 - ID#187109)
The Brits lose a footy match and thier currency takes a crap........does anyone like IRONY? ... ( I know Haggis will like this )

US loses to Iran and the Pasty Boys lose to

Does anyone feel the cold, raw IRONY here..... ;- )'s just a game , eh?


seriously though......


it's just completing part-o-the-pattern........uh huh.



uyingsoon..... ( notnow ) .........utsoon......

kuston - Papago it is. It looks long, and my bubble shaft is in the shop.........oh well, James said we should have a cooler........the 'inlaws' said it was 118 yesterday........can you confirm? Whoa... ( ! ) ... ( sweat pouring down his back ) ............I guess we'll be lose, eh?


are there any savvy currency traders out there? I've but one ( or two ) questions to ask.......I want some real savvy dude/ettes...........You too George ( S ) .......

(Wed Jul 01 1998 12:57 - ID#373284)
came back in to get a beer and a shot...let me put one thing on the table...
William Jefferson Clinton is a pissant...MY NAME is KEVAN SARKIS KHANAMIRIAN and HE CAN KISS MY NY AMERICAN ASS...nuff said...

Hey Billy BOY...look up my FATHER'S service record...well documented in THE UNITED STATES PAL...

291 West Shore Road, Hungtington, NY...


Steve in TO__A
(Wed Jul 01 1998 13:00 - ID#209265)
A few last Taiwan thoughts . . .
I wonder if the Taiwanese could be convinced to make a psychologically significant name change. That Taiwan, Republic of China ( ROC ) designation they use is a relic of the days when the Mandarin refugees who shanghaied the Taiwanese government thought they would use Taiwan as a base to regroup and retake China.

They should change their country's name to something like Republic of Taiwan. I know the Chinese would act like a bunch of angry hornets over something like that- but then so what: nothing will appease them, and it's only Taiwan's military readiness that's keeping the Chinese at bay anyway.

- Steve

(Wed Jul 01 1998 13:12 - ID#147201)
tolerant1 re previous

(Wed Jul 01 1998 13:12 - ID#259400)
Blooper, when you say gold is going up till July 20 what do you mean by that. $5.00, $10.00, how much. What are your estimates for gold and the XAU by July 20.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 13:17 - ID#273227)
Driver + for Papago
Yes, I can confirm. It's been high 1teens for the last week. Papago is a great course - you'll need your Driver and then some. It is a golfers course like the munis back east. No flash, half the players will be walking the course ( we won't be ) .

The first hole is 550+ with a bend in it, the green is elevated 50 yards on the edge of a hill, there is nothing but air right of the green ( don't let that shot leak ) . The second is a short par 4 380, dogleg left, banked on a side of a hill ( no level lies ) . The green is the size of 1/18 at Saint Andrews: HUGE! How many 50 yard putts have you pacticed? The third is 450 par 4, the last 200 uphill, left is OB, right is down a hill. Its just about now that you start to feel the 115 degree heat. Papago will challenge you the whole day. I'm looking forward to Monday.

I know there are some Phoenix posters/lurkers here - anyone want to join us Monday morning? drop me a note

ps - I wouldn't recomend the beer, I'll bring a full cooler. Papago is BYO.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 13:17 - ID#340344)
Thank you for your 10:26 post. The guy is amazing. And, the
thread reminded me about iambic pentameter. Ten or fifteen years
ago, there was an hour-long episode on television of
"Moonlighting," written entirely in iambic pentameter.
If anybody can provide a lead as to where I might get a
tape of that, I would be a very happy guy. Ideas?

(Wed Jul 01 1998 13:30 - ID#174239)
Taiwan Security
EJ: Thank you for enlightening me on Taiwan's strong independant military. I have been wondering why China does not simply declare it a rebillous provence and invade. I heard on the news that China lacks the amphibious forces it would need. I assumed this meant they had almost none. Now I see that China may have lots of amphibious forces, but this is still inadequate against Tiawans strong defenses.

I guess the wealth that makes Taiwan desirable to China would be destroyed in the process of conquring it. Why expend expensive military forces to turn a profitable island into a wasteland. With Taiwans chinese connections perhaps a suprise attack is impossible, making it that much harder.

Why does America send Fleets to the region whenever China tries to provoke Taiwan? Taiwan dosn't mean enough to the USA to risk war with the other super-power does it?

(Wed Jul 01 1998 13:32 - ID#347235)
Tol 1
I love it! Talk about slamming your schwanz on the anvil!!! Mucho Cojones amigo!

(Wed Jul 01 1998 13:32 - ID#187109)
coolers and big dogs eatin'........yes, we will drive. I'll crawl toward the end thank you........see you then mate. I'll try and ring ya tonight. the course


(Wed Jul 01 1998 13:40 - ID#147201)
tolerant1 I forgot
He's a pissant alright, but with a mouth like a rhino w/o regard to what comes out

(Wed Jul 01 1998 13:40 - ID#434411)
Blooper - July 20?
"I will sell into strength around 20th of July, and go fishing till Nov. 1."

Where do those dates come from, astrology?

Aragorn III
(Wed Jul 01 1998 14:07 - ID#212323)
the sound of a pin dropping
is giving me a headache

(Wed Jul 01 1998 14:12 - ID#427357)

Although the looming Y2K problem is now only the conversational topic du Jour of well-informed esoteric groups, ALL THAT WILL SOON CHANGE.

Hollywood is already working on a new movie about Y2K. Undoubtedly, the tension will INCREASE as we draw closer to Y2K-Day ( New Year's Eve 1999 ) . We still have 18 months to prepare for THE EVENT, which allegedly will cause dramatic transmutations to public life as the media ( newspapers, magazines, radio and of course TV ) pick up the sober beat.

Here is the wonder story of the Century that the media always dream about. A story having meaning and significance for all people from America to Zimbabwe. A story which will take 18 long months to unfold before the ultimate dramatic climax. It promises to be a Ravel Bolero type relentless crescendo ever mounting until the fatal of HOUR OF MIDNIGHT.

To be sure it is feasible there will be a run on gold, canned foods, bottle water, potable radios and camping equipment while many flee fiat money and abandon the "Wall Street" of the world.

Will it be the "Dawn of the 21st Century, or the precursor to the "Sun-set" of the world economies that we have come to enjoy. The story will most likely achieve gargantuan scary proportions as dire reports from Boston will feed upon ominous news from Berne to Berlin to Baghdad to Beijing. The story will eventually magnetize greater riveting attention than a 1,000 "O.J Simpson" trials or 10,000 Super-bowls. Monica Lewinsky's favors will have been just a joke in "bad-taste."

Unquestionably, the media will milk this story with exponential intensity as count-down continues. Steven Spielberg may even earn another Oscar

But while we await the Hollywood's thrillers, we might get an excellent handle on the subject by reviewing ( again ) carefully the most definitive report on Y2K to date "AN ICEBERG CALLED Y2K." It is a trilogy - the last part is located at the URL below --and Parts I & II are hot-wired at the bottom of the following URL.

Remember to delete the extra "en" letters in the word "golden" before posting the URL to your Internet locator:

(Wed Jul 01 1998 14:13 - ID#350179)
ping (pin dropping)
Rubin "deeply, deeply concerned'' about yen

Leading indicators point to slowdown

Advanced Fibre plunges after profit warning [precursors]

(Wed Jul 01 1998 14:16 - ID#288186)

(Wed Jul 01 1998 14:17 - ID#434108)
"The Gold Standard" by the Champion of Liberty - Ludwig von Mises - some of his 'words of wisdom'
"The eminence of the gold standard consists in the fact that it
makes the determination of the monetary unit's purchasing power
independent of the measures of governments.
It wrests from the hands of the 'economic tsars', their most
redoubtable instrument.
It makes it impossible for them to inflate.
That is why the gold standard is furiously attacked
by all those who expect they will benefit by bounties
from the seemingly inexhaustible
government purse.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 14:21 - ID#434108)
Robby Rubin & the ping-pong economy
Robby can't help it;
he got such a narrow, limited, "education"...
on Wall St.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 14:21 - ID#289357)
For a slow day, here's something to heighten your Paranoia

Big Brother is monitoring your email:

Who's watching you and what are you telling them?

Surf the web anonymously with the Anonymizer:

Have a nice day.

Got Gold?

(Wed Jul 01 1998 14:21 - ID#373284)
chas, Retired Soldier, Namaste' If he stood on his Grandmother's back he
could not KISS my to the Village...children are up and about...

heh...heh...heh...buying a ring for me Mumm and such stuff...

Black Helicopters...NOT!!!


(Wed Jul 01 1998 14:22 - ID#288186)
Current Futures: Aug Comex Gold@ 297.00 Sept Comex Silver@ 5.475
Sept T-Bond@ 123 26/32 Sept s&p500 @ 1151.50

(Wed Jul 01 1998 14:23 - ID#434108)
Silverbaron's 'Big-Brother' monitor
Does he throw in a reliable spell-checker?

(Wed Jul 01 1998 14:23 - ID#373284)
but...before I run off...SilverBaron, Namaste' A MIGHTY Island that is Long GULP

(Wed Jul 01 1998 14:27 - ID#434108)
Proverbs 25:11 ( revised internet edition):
A word fitly posted at kitco,
is like apples of gold
in pictures of silver.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 14:32 - ID#350179)
Fed starts today"s meeting, rates seen steady

Headline of the day award: "Drugs may boost market"
My head is filled with dark forebodings too...but really, it's all dark.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 14:36 - ID#434108)
here's my yahoo stock portfolio, mostly gold stocks
notice ANGLY's 4+% price jump today
this stock is often a leading indicator for mining shares
as a group ( -xau, etc. )

However, today'sbullish action for this stock, in contrast to the 'group', might could be explained by: ...
ANGLY could possibly be being be influenced by So.Af. rand's
recent volatility; and/or by pending mergers/acquisitions among
some of the So. African mines.

Anyone have any ideas/clues/opinions, on this?:_______

I am convinced that ANGLY is one of the most important 'leading indicators', for gold traders/investors.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 14:37 - ID#434108)
OOOps, I forgot; here's the URL for my yahoo stock-portfolio

(Wed Jul 01 1998 14:40 - ID#36156)
Gold in the Official Sector
Caught this over at Yahoo! Hope it ain't old news...


Wednesday July 1, 1:08 pm Eastern Time

Company Press Release

Gold in the Official Sector

NEW YORK-- ( BUSINESS WIRE ) --July 1, 1998--The official launch of the European Central Bank ( ECB ) this week and the approach of European Monetary Union ( EMU ) raise a number of interesting possibilities for gold in the official sector, but the lack of transparency in the activities of central banks in the gold market may be misleading traders, analysts and investors.

During the last few years an increasing number of central banks -- over 70 at the latest count -- are now actively managing their gold reserves to improve the return on their holdings.

These banks have been especially active in the gold leasing and swaps markets, and in the past two years alone Gold Fields Mineral Services ( GFMS ) estimates that the official sector has mobilized another 1,000 tons. Two-thirds of this came last year and brought the total of central bank gold in the market to above 3,700 tons, equivalent to the total holding of Germany's Bundesbank.

The lack of transparency in these arrangements has created the impression that more gold has been sold than is the actual case. IMF statistics show that total gold holdings in the official sector have declined by only 2.6% over the past three years -- from 34,781 tons at the end of 1994 to 33,860 tons at the end of 1997 -- just 921 tons.

This contrasts very strongly with the perception that there has been a wave of central bank selling. There have been a number of high profile sales from countries such as Argentina and Australia and earlier this year the Belgians disclosed having sold 299 tons. But this latter sale was conducted through five other central banks and the IMF statistics would seem to indicate that gold from several of the other central bank 'sales' have ended up in the other official holdings.

The Bank of Portugal is one central bank which has admitted to using gold swaps as part of its policy to secure the maximum possible yield from its reserves, but it has not sold any gold. The Austrian central bank also makes no secret of its use of gold swaps and recently revealed that its holdings had 'fallen' by 83.2 tons but this was not represented by outright sales. It reflected mainly an increase of 69.7 tons in gold swaps which will return to reserves on maturity.

Gold swaps and deposits by the official sector have risen significantly in recent years to meet an increase in the demand for liquidity in the market. This may have clouded perceptions to the point where some of these lending operations have been misinterpreted as outright sales and have contributed to the negative market sentiment for gold.

However, there have also been a significant number of central banks adding to their gold holdings. GFMS estimates that some 19 countries purchase around 438 tons of gold in 1997. Part of this buying consisted of local mine production but the outcome overall was that net official sector sales were around 406 tons. This was considerably less than the net 622 tons sold in 1992 and the 494 tons sold in 1993, all of which was absorbed by the market without major upheaval. Indeed, without these sales there would have been a significant deficiency in the market as total consumption exceeded mine production by 1368 tons in 1992, 1254 tons in 1993 and 1790 tons last year.


World Gold Council, New York
George Milling-Stanley, 212/317-3848
World Gold Council, London
Dick Ware/Robert Pringle, 011 44171-930-5171

(Wed Jul 01 1998 14:42 - ID#93232)
Thanks...a new project.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 14:48 - ID#288186)
HenryD; Yeah, I think there was some talk on this earlier this
morning. Looks like the CB's or whoever, play a numbers game. I suspect
it has something to do with accounting the Gold as sold or leased and
showing it still on their books as well as the recipients? I'm not the
knowledgable one on this. Can anyone improve/correct me?
Thanks, Fox-Man

(Wed Jul 01 1998 14:52 - ID#350179)
Despite China's gains, Clinton delivers environmental warning

IMHO the important part is this:
Clinton said, "America has this role which is temporary  it won't last forever  as the only superpower in the world.'' He said the world "needs a leader but not in the sense of one country telling everyone else what to do.''

A feint within a feint within a feint.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 14:54 - ID#354133)
Don't forget about the South African connection. They did not have the PRC breathing down their necks so they successfully conducted their tests. Taiwan did not test - most likely due to fear of U.S. reprisals - see what's happening to India and Pakistan now. U.S.A. cannot and will not EVER admit to helping anyone's nuclear weapons programs. Not even for helping China improve the accuracy of its delivery systems. Threat of mutually assured destruction for both the Mainland and the Island will hopefully continue to hold tempers in check for many years to come. We'll see...

(Wed Jul 01 1998 14:57 - ID#36156)
FOX-MAN__A - Ah, the old shell game... thanks.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 15:03 - ID#45173)
@Suspicious, NightWriter, Auric, gunrunner, Steve in To, JP
Clinton has done little more than restate the US policy initiated by Carter. The US has no official diplomatic relations with Taiwan, no joint defense agreement, and in fact does not recognize Taiwan as a nation. That's why it was such a big deal when the US let the Taiwanese premier stay over in Hawaii for a day during a flight a few years ago and allowed him to visit the US in his capacity as a "guest" at Cornell University last year. The Taiwanese interpreted these events as a loosening of US policy with Taiwan. Clinton reassured China that the US had not changed its mind, in the event dashing Taiwan's hopes of US policy change that these small gestures implied.

My question about Clinton's motives was rhetorical. The US, and in fact no powerful nation, has never taken a moral stance that contradicts the national interest. The Taiwanese have no illusions that the US or anyone will intervene on their behalf if China strikes. There will be the obligatory screams of moral outrage, of course, and the US will take way most favored nation status once again. Perhaps the Chinese are waiting for the moment when they are sufficiently economically powerful that such economic sanctions will not hurt them, or cannot be afforded by a world that is dependent on them in some way. Then they may take Taiwan. But as I mentioned before, at terrible cost. The country is mountainous and highly defensible, and the Taiwanese are no lightweights.

As for Taiwan having nukes, the world is divided into nations that do and don't have nukes and say so, and nations that do and don't have nukes and don't tell. It all depends on whether secrecy is an advantage or not. Right now it's more to Taiwan's advantage to keep the world guessing. My guess is that they have them, and that China knows this. But it does not benefit Taiwans' public position as subject to China's bullying to state this publically. However, if things heat up and China threatens, and the time is right to raise the stakes to get the world community involved in pressuring China to back off, we will learn about Taiwan's nukes.


(Wed Jul 01 1998 15:05 - ID#434108)
Nikkei up 530+ points that right? :: Nikkei at bottom/DJIA at top ...?
Since the Nikkei has been going down....for most of this decade;
while the U.S. stock-markets/S&P/Dow/NASDAQ...have been going up....
for most of this decade....then.....if... :: )

the Nikkei is bottoming/has bottomed, here in 1998....
then, perhaps -
the U.S. markets are topping/have topped ( -out ) , here in 1998

(Wed Jul 01 1998 15:06 - ID#210235)
Thanks for the heads-up. Sometimes we forget. Also, for anyone using the Anonymizer, read the fine print. They record your movements while using their system, too. As I recall, they don't keep them very long, but need some protection in case someone is using their address to do illegal/libelous stuff.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 15:14 - ID#434108)
Taiwan policy & U.S. aircraft carriers recent 'show of force'
Didn't the U.S. send 2 aircraft carriers into Taiwan-ese & Chinese-proximity...
... waters...
within the last few years -- as a 'show-of-force'
to remind China that it would be best to 'back-off'....
from its
rather aggressive military maneuvers in Taiwan's proximity?

If so, how does this jive w/ Clinton's recent remarks/cave-in,
to China - regarding our/U.S.'s supposedly wanting
the eventually reunification of the island w/ the mainland, in supposed support of the C. Chinese...?!?

And, how come no-one else is mentioning this fact here --
the aircraft carriers-- here at kitco;
or do I have my facts wrong?

(Wed Jul 01 1998 15:18 - ID#434108)
"Economic Secrets Revealed" ( ? ) (cnnfn)

(Wed Jul 01 1998 15:20 - ID#289357)

Sometimes I go on these fishing expeditions and turn up some interesting stuff.....not that I believe all of it of course. Here's another good one on privacy on the net:

(Wed Jul 01 1998 15:20 - ID#289357)

Sometimes I go on these fishing expeditions and turn up some interesting stuff.....not that I believe all of it of course. Here's another good one on privacy on the net:

(Wed Jul 01 1998 15:26 - ID#20748)
European CB Gold Loans
HenryD :

Please see my 10:10. Veneroso estimates of 8,000 tonnes of gold loans may be a tad high but, if true, it implies that 30% of Eurpean gold reserves have been loaned out to gold producers and speculators. It is not at all hard to imagine that some of these producers and speculators are marginal and will default when gold starts a bull market.

IMF figures refer to gold in the vaults of CBs. It does not take into account gold loans and derivatives. Or am I missing something.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 15:27 - ID#45173)
@vronsky & All: Y2K movie
My sister is a script writer in Hollywood who actually sells scripts and makes money, as distinguised from most writers there. You may have seen one or two of her movies. I'd called her six months ago with the idea to do a Y2K movie and she had a few interesting insights.

The movie industry is not in the disaster prediction business, but rather in the business of making movies that resonate with the collective unconsciousness. You may have noticed the recent rash of movies about disasters -- Asteroid, etc. These movies are designed to tap into widely held unconscious negative expectations about the future and present them in a compelling way you can relate to. These movies are not about real events, but rather depict events that are symbolic of real events. It's hard to build a story around a stock market crash or a bunch of computers konking out and make it compelling. But you can make a really exciting movie about an asteroid hitting the earth and destroying it. It is human nature to project your feelings onto things outside of you, and so the asteroid movie serves as a kind of emotional proxy for real events you might really be worried about.

This raises an interesting question: Why do Hollywood producers now perceive a mass expectation of calamity?

One theory is that at the end of boom cycles, the folks who did poorly are angry and want to see the system destroyed that left them out, while folks who did well may feel guilty about it and expect punishment for their good fortune.

As Freud said, "The wish is father to the fear."

The purpose of seeing a disaster movie is that it provides catharis. The world blows up and everyone dies, but afterwards the lights go on and you go home. You experience a moment of invunerability and immortality.


(Wed Jul 01 1998 15:31 - ID#36156)
Thanks, NJ. My education continues.


(Wed Jul 01 1998 15:32 - ID#20748)
I dont recall the dates, but didn't the U.S. move some aircraft carriers, when China conducted some large scale amphibious exercises near Taiwan ?

(Wed Jul 01 1998 15:36 - ID#45173)
goldfevr: You're correct about the US sending carriers in
during China's "excercises." But what might you expect the US to actually do if China were to attack Taiwan? Will the US attack China in defense of Taiwan? That does not seem plausible to me. On the other hand, doing nothing is also not acceptable. Sending in a few carriers is just about right.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 15:41 - ID#20748)
If you remember the time when the aircraft carriers were moved, please advise. I am curious to know if it happened during the Clinton or Bush administration.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 15:47 - ID#45173)
NJ: I just called my wife and asked her
Our recollection is that this happen early in Clinton's first term. The carriers were already in the neighborhood and just moved in a little closer to the straits for PR effect.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 15:50 - ID#289357)
Sorry - this is too good to resist.....Where are you, F*?


farfel [FAHR-fuhl] 1. An egg-noodle dough that is grated or minced and used in soups. 2. In Jewish cookery, farfel refers to food  such as dried noodles  broken into small pieces.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 15:53 - ID#220325)
Sharefin or other Aussies-Your opinion please!
Martin Armstrong of Princeton Economics adivises The Princeton Precious Metals and Capital Markest Fund in AUSTRALIA. This fund is independant of Armstrong's PEI and Americans can not own it. Are you aware of the fund and what do you think of it if you are?

Their one year profits were 74% PA and over a 3 year period 34%.

Their url is

I would appreciate you comments/

(Wed Jul 01 1998 16:00 - ID#288186)
Comex Warehouse Totals.(Yep! lower levels! Still looking for
the 5 million oz drop for real excitement, though. ( per D.A. )

COMEX Metal Warehouse Statistics for July 1

Gold 1,054,683 - 3,011 troy ounces
Silver 85,911,256 - 333,998 troy ounces
Copper 62,470 - 1,059 short tons

N/A= Not available.

Charles Keeling
(Wed Jul 01 1998 16:05 - ID#344225)
@goldfvr RE: US ships offshore Taiwan
Yes, a task force was put in place back when the Chinese started
manuevers in the area.

That does run counter to his current stance, however since that move
tons of Chinese cash was poured into his election campaign.

Since when did Clinton ever stand for anything except "The End Justifies The Means". Herr Clinton is the proverbial liar. He is a sleazy
politician who will tell anybody wiith a vote, or campaign cash to
donate, what they want to hear. You can only watch what he does in order
to understand his objectives. Watching what he says is futile.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 16:10 - ID#45173)
Gollum: Paul the Poodle, the stupid mutt
Walked out on the job today. I'll no doubt find him in The Hideaway shooting pool and drinking with his friends. Just looked at the DOW, made it up over 9000. I'll talk to Paul tonight and see what he's got under his skin, besides fleas.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 16:21 - ID#359316)
While we're on definitions...

(Wed Jul 01 1998 16:26 - ID#354133)
I am rolling on the floor.. I didn't believe you and had to look it up myself... You are truly EVIL! My sides hurt!

(Wed Jul 01 1998 16:31 - ID#93232)
Klinton this...
and Clinton that...Big Deal! Does anyone here honestly think Bob Dole or George Bush would be doing anything different than Clinton regarding China? Bush was president when Tiananmen took place in '89 and he didn't even yank MFN out from under the Red Chinese! American corporations have too much money in China and our officials in DC are going to look out for them. And all those investments started going into China under the Republcans. Republicans & Democrats may sound different, but...well, you figure it out.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 16:41 - ID#242303)
The True North Strong & Free...
Happy Canada Day.. Fellow Canucks.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 16:45 - ID#45173)
@J: The government of China has historically behaved in ways that are highly unpopular
with the rest of the world when it felt it needed to take these actions to protect itself. Will China attack Taiwan? Taiwan is a challenge to Chinese authority. If the challenge threatens to destabilize China, then they may attack Taiwan. If there's nothing left of Taiwan when they're done, the objective will still have been fulfilled.

China plays by its own rules. The killing of its own people is one of the things China will do without remorse if it feels this is necessary to maintain control. China has 7,000 years of history and a huge mass of humanity over an enormous area to govern. At no point during these 7,000 years did a tradition of democracy and rights for individuals develop. In fact, the very idea of individuality is Western. Issues only have meaning in terms of the intersts of the whole country. Westerners show profound naivete when we go there to talk about human rights to the Chinese. Whose rights? Of some individual, who is expendable, or the rights of the nation, which is sacred? Talking about human rights in China is like talking about raising buffalo on the bottom of the ocean.

It's a common error in Western thinking that China ever does anything in order to be perceived as equal to any other nation. They believe that they are much better than any other nation on earth, older, wiser, more prosperous. They are not looking for approval and they are not afraid of anyone.


Cage Rattler
(Wed Jul 01 1998 16:45 - ID#33182)
Y2K and bank runs
Can anyone explain to me why, next year, everyone is going to need cash in the hand - causing a bank run - when they could be using credit cards, etc. as alternatives to cash?

(Wed Jul 01 1998 16:48 - ID#434108)
Karl Bilawski ('s "Gollum") for president
how much tax-payer money is contributing
to his salary at Berkeley?
If he's in the educational establishment;
he should leave it,
for Hollywood, &/or for a screen-writer's career.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 16:50 - ID#376309)
How Cheap Is Cheap???
The 400 day moving average of spot gold is at $322.80.
Just think about that. It's lower than the low in '93 and everyone bought gold and ran it up over $400 because it was so cheap.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 16:51 - ID#57232)
Loaned Gold reserves -- defaults pending or no?
NJ: Do we really know that the 8000 tonnes of loaned gold actually left the CB's, or was it just used as collateral? If the firms that borrowed gold from the CB's default on their gold loans, who is left holding the bag, the bankrupt firm, or the CB? I think this needs clarification, as the Central Banks are big enough that deals might have been made without the gold actually going anywhere.

My guess is that only a few CB's will actually get caught with their pants down. If not, there may be real fireworks that even gold bugs will not like when the dollar/gold carry trade unravels.

My guess is that something like this already happened in the 60's and 70's. Anyone know if CB gold loan defaults occurred? Were they quietly converted into gold sales? Was the missing gold covered by CB gold purchases? The BIS? If the BIS is covering somewayward CB's, I'll bet they extract their pound of flesh.

Antony Sutton, where are you when we need you?

(Wed Jul 01 1998 16:53 - ID#434108)
@ Trinovant's 16:21
Thank-you sincerely, for perhaps the most 'useful' post
on kitco, that there has ever been.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 16:56 - ID#93232)
Cage Rattler
A lot of people's cards are maxed out and credit may get tightened even for consumers. A lot of us are wary of banks and the interest they charge. APR's are variable... And then, who is secure in their job? Besides, in an economic turndown, many will be flat out broke with no credit.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 16:57 - ID#434108)
@strat's 16:31
why...what-ever do you mean...?!
would our gov't sell it's soul...
to the highest bidder?...or....
or just to any opportune 'bidder' - buying

money talks
whether it is chinese money or :______


(Wed Jul 01 1998 17:00 - ID#93232)

(Wed Jul 01 1998 17:03 - ID#45173)
Cage Rattler: The theory is that some part of the chain that processes
your credit card transaction may be broken:
1 ) Bank's computers may be down ( or they may not know what your credit balance is )
2 ) Bank's network may be down
3 ) Network between the store and the bank may be down
4 ) Power to any part of this network of computers may be out

This is a highly simplified explanation.

The reason for taking money out of the bank is that if they have't fixed everything the bank may not be 100% certain how much money you have in your account. You may show up with your 12/12/99 statement that says you have $2,457.98 but their 01/01/2000 statment may say you have $3.45 or $3,345,987.34. In either case, if they're not sure, the bank will go back to the printed copy they have of your 12/12/99 statement and check. That's ok, except that you will not be able to do withdrawl transactions electronically. Since most banks have no other way of doing transactions, you won't be able to do any transactions. This is why the SEC is all over the banks to get things fixed.

A lot of folks will just assume not trust the bank to get it right and will take their money out just in case. If too many folks make this decision, the banks will run out of cash.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 17:03 - ID#20748)
March 3, 1996. url.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 17:04 - ID#350179)
I controlled myself ( somewhat ) during that fracas - found the definition too, just didn't have the cojones to post it.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 17:05 - ID#434108)
Charles Keeling's 16:05
maneuvers/carriers in Taiwan-waters...
when was this?
was it under Clinton, at his direction?

i appreciate your view on Clinton; it is the prevailing view of him by we kitcoites, myself included....perhaps...

i'd just like to know the facts on this intervention
of U.S. carriers into Taiwanese waters...
was it... done, to intimidate/persuade/remind China ...
that it would be in their best interest... to...
from their military maneuvers that were seen as threatening.... to Taiwan?
.... this true?
did it happen?

(Wed Jul 01 1998 17:11 - ID#434108)
MM's 17:04
now understand farfel's pugnacity...
it's the fleas

(Wed Jul 01 1998 17:14 - ID#45173)
NJ: thanks for the URL
That answers our question. The carriers were sent in on Clinton's watch. The prospect of the Chinese in Taiwan getting voted out of power in a democratic election was very scary to the Communist Chinese. In fact, that's exactly what happened.


(Wed Jul 01 1998 17:16 - ID#350179)
March 1996

(Wed Jul 01 1998 17:17 - ID#432112)
Excellant post! Tinovant 16:21

(Wed Jul 01 1998 17:19 - ID#287193)
" Happy Birthday CANADA......
And many Thanks to Bart for this wonderful Canadian forum.
Many of the posters here, it seems, think it is an all 'USA' place with
special rights only for the Yankees.
The Prime-minister declared it the "BEST and MOST beautiful country in
the world."
Lots of Gold and honest dealers!
Want to know what the people think?>
( I hope this url is not too long )

Gold is not always gold:

Due to increasing competition, many smaller traders offer their "gold" at
"special prices". But such promotional measures should be seen as
warnings, and extreme caution should be exercised. Nobody is going to be
giving their gold away, especially not Thais 1.


(Wed Jul 01 1998 17:29 - ID#26793)
Dow/Gold Ratio = 30.55. The 50 day moving average is 30.17

(Wed Jul 01 1998 17:34 - ID#26793)
XAU/Spot Ratio = .239. The 50 day moving average is .261. My database contains 27 occasions where the XAU closed in the 70.XX range. Ranked according to the gold price today is #20. The #1 ranking was on April 22, 1986, with a gold price of $346.80, an XAU of 70.87, producing an XAU/AU ratio of .204

(Wed Jul 01 1998 17:34 - ID#210235)
Here's a link for the history of US intervention. It was only a couple of years ago.

Under "The US Intervenes", third line from bottom is US sends carrier group.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 17:38 - ID#251166)
@ Glenn
Still short AU?

(Wed Jul 01 1998 17:39 - ID#26793)
Gold/Silver Ratio = 54.25. The 50 day moving average is 53.95

(Wed Jul 01 1998 17:41 - ID#26793)
The numbers below are all 50 day moving averages
Spot gold $297.81; spot silver $5.53; XAU 78.03

(Wed Jul 01 1998 17:51 - ID#210235)
@Japan sees Clinton destabilizing region

Anyone else notice that Japan's stock market is going up and PRC's is going down during this illustrious visit? hmmmm

(Wed Jul 01 1998 17:51 - ID#293379)
RUMORS and more rumors
My MONEX broker told me today that someone bought 20 million ounces of silver for July delivery... This would put some life into the dead silver market! He didn't know if it was purchased for lease or delivery. I wonder if it was Kodak? Or maybe WB found some money in the pockets of his laundry pile and decided to put it where it would be seen ( vice the London market ) ...
Or maybe this is being spread around to keep suckers like me buying while the smart guys sell their $5 silver ... What say ye Kitcoites to this rumor--Booo or Bravo?

(Wed Jul 01 1998 18:05 - ID#253153)
Clinton selling out of Taiwan may accelerate sales of US treasuries held by
Taiwan and Japan. Taiwan and Japan hold $270 B in US treasuries.
Capital flight out of Taiwan will now accelerate and the government may not have a choice but to sell out US treasuries to protect their currency.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 18:21 - ID#39862)

Date: Wed Jul 01 1998 15:27
EJ ( @vronsky & All: Y2K movie ) ID#45173:

A further thought........

Why not one on GOLD - the intriques of the current situation, Banks, politics, mining companies, South Africa, Aussie gold sales, exploration, mercenary arms in PNG, arm sales, destabilisation of Russia, China & Clinton, gold and drugs, Hong Kong, the Yen, apanese buying gold .............

Worth a thought ?!

Steve in TO__A
(Wed Jul 01 1998 18:28 - ID#287337)
EJ - thanks for the insights into China/Taiwan, movie scripts, etc.
Concerning credit cards. All the companies here in Canada are issuing renewal cards that expire 11/99, instead of the usual 3 yr. period. With my new card, there was a letter explaining that because of the possibility of computers being unable to store or process 01/00 expiry dates, they were issuing cards with a useable date, and would issue new cards before 11/99 to all customers once they are more aware of how the Year 2000 problem will be handled by vendors.

- Steve

(Wed Jul 01 1998 18:33 - ID#434108)
ALL: If any of you are so moved, you are welcome to send my "CLINTON, CHINA & TAIWAN", to anyone.
( This is a revised & edited ( -no longer an original ) copy of my e-mail, that I sent to my Senator, Sen. Boxer, CA/USA, this afternoon. )

Clinton, China, & Taiwan ( 7/1/98 )

Dear Senator Boxer,
I am absolutely outraged at Clinton's claim...... and cowardice...
in pretending to suggest that Taiwan should be re-united with China .

China's military 'exercises' in 3/96, simultaneously with Taiwan's
Presidential election... was an act of 'testing' & intimidation by the
Communist Chinese.

it was my understanding that -
our aircraft carriers were sent there...
to remind the Chinese that there is a certain line -- 'a rubicon line',
if you will -- across which, we - America/U.S.A. - will not cross.

What is this current, temporary.....
President named Clinton....
trying to do with such a corrupted 'promise' to the Chinese --
surrendering Taiwan back to them ??!!

What motive underlies his offer of such an offer...
...such a carrot on the end of a stick.... ?!

Are we Americans so sated, complacent, weakened & enfeebled ....
is our national integrity so tarnished....
our fragile economic market-places -- so desperately in jeopardy ....
that we must play lackey... to the Chinese coffers ????!!!

Are we pretending....
to bait the Chinese ??!! ....or....

Have they, already....long since ....
baited & hooked us -- thru this current, temporary ....... Clinton

And what next charade, what next masquerade... will be marauded-upon...
the American their "elected" ...
... ""representatives, servants & leaders"".....?!
( and their "special interests" )

Sincerely yours,
David Blair Macrory
resident of San Diego, CA
and descendant,
of many...
who have lived and died...
in life, work & war....
....because they believed,
in the principles of truth, justice, courage, love,
and creative freedom
that are the constituitonal foundation
and fountain-head
of this nation.

When will our gov't "leaders" simply tell us/share with us....
the truth, what-ever it is.... ?!

With all the blood of Americans that has been generously sacrificed...
spilt.... poured out...all over this earth...
in two world wars....waged in in Europe, Africa, & Asia;
in our own un-civil Civil War;
in our birth-right of American Revolution...

In all the wars that this country has sacrificed itself to...
since, during & even before 1776....

And all those oceans of misery & sacrifice & honor and courage and
fore-bearance...and blood...

and yet....yet....even now....
we would still sell our souls to the 'highest bidder'...
in this case, the Communist Chinese... ?!

by sacrificing Taiwan.... or even feigning to.....
our President sacrifices everything this country stands for, lives for, and has died for.

Is the need of a few U.S. corporations 'invested' in China,
and the money-seed.... for a few political power-blocks & parties...
more important...
than our lives, our fortunes, and our sacred honor?

What price would we barter...for...
and thus give-away.....
our principled, democratic, economically independent, vibrant,
creative ally -- almost a perfect mirror of our own country's
meaning, purpose & mission,in the world -- Taiwan, whose destiny it is.... to be a nation, like we.

Where are the George Washingtons, and the Alexander Hamiltons,
and the Thomas Jeffersons, and the Abraham Lincolns....
that are country, and the free-world,
are so deeply in need of at this time... in this hour...
where are they....?
where are you....?
where is our President?
where are we....?

(Wed Jul 01 1998 18:41 - ID#45173)
Haggis: Great list of exotics
Banks, politics, mining companies, South Africa, Aussie gold sales, exploration, mercenary arms in PNG, arm sales, destabilisation of Russia, China & Clinton, gold and drugs, Hong Kong, the Yen, Japanese buying gold. Movies aren't about things and events. A movie is a story about a person facing a problem at a particular age and how they overcome it:

Teenage: Finding yourself
Early twenties: "Am I special? I AM special. I'm not special."
Early thirties: Unfinshed business, who you are vs who your parents are
Early Forties: In Full Bloom, creating a world for yourself
Late Forties: Mid-Life Crisis: "Is what I have become enough? Is this all there is?"
Fifty: New beginnings: You've gone as far as you can the old way. Now what?

And so on. Compliments of Viki King.

All the places and events you mention will make an interesting backdrop for a great story. You wanna write it?


(Wed Jul 01 1998 18:45 - ID#434108)
Sydney Morning /Aussie paper's perspective on 'Living Dangerously' in AsiaHarold

(Wed Jul 01 1998 18:46 - ID#373284)
Hmmmmmmmmmmmm, YOU the Chinese slobs Taiwan...
Fu_k you...NEVER...NEVER...MY LIFE ON THE WALLS FIRST...NEVER...the sack of China...Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm....When me and MINE Flock the Walls...get ready to meet pragmatism...

when ME and MINE crawl the walls.......EVERY TWO HUNDRED WILL BE TAKEN BY ONE AMERICAN...into the battle...Hmmmmmmmmmm...NUMBERS mean NOTHING...HONOR and DIGNITY...AMERICA...FOREVER....Bill Clinton Suks!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

(Wed Jul 01 1998 18:47 - ID#434108)
by george: sydney morning herald it is, not harold!....for sakes!

(Wed Jul 01 1998 18:48 - ID#45173)
Gollum: Hello
You there?

(Wed Jul 01 1998 18:49 - ID#39862)

"eenage: Finding yourself
Early twenties: "Am I special? I AM special. I'm not special."
Early thirties: Unfinshed business, who you are vs who your parents are
Early Forties: In Full Bloom, creating a world for yourself
Late Forties: Mid-Life Crisis: "Is what I have become enough? Is this all there is?"
Fifty: New beginnings: You've gone as far as you can the old way. Now what?"

EJ...........the above sounds like the life of a GOLD GEOLOGIST......

A case of ," been there, done that" !!

(Wed Jul 01 1998 18:50 - ID#434108)
tolerant1@ 18:46
now tolerant1, be nice..
( unless you want to indulge in 'poetic license' )
but really, you, most of all ....of all of us kitcoites... up to...
your name....
but really now

(Wed Jul 01 1998 18:55 - ID#434108)
EJ &Gollum
Gollum: 'Yes, EJ, I am here.... ... And you?
EJ: Yes, me too.....

So, what's new?: : ) ?

(Wed Jul 01 1998 18:55 - ID#348286)
Don't you know, Clinton is under the employ of the chinese.
He will be moving to Bejing once his term is up and his court appearances are done. He has been promised all the hungry mouths he can handle to boot.......

(Wed Jul 01 1998 18:56 - ID#259400)
Survey Results
Ok guys here are the results of last night quicky survey on what one would do with $100,000 if he had to invest it in gold for the next six months with the stipulation that he had to be either short or long. The longs added up to 16 votes. The Shorts tallied up to 5. Now I realise that this may be a slightly biased forum for the longs so does anyone know of a similar forum that is frequented by the shorts? Sort of a discussion group for anti-gold bugs?

(Wed Jul 01 1998 18:57 - ID#434108)
you mean all the money wasn't enuf to satisfy him....?

(Wed Jul 01 1998 18:59 - ID#45173)
That's the whole point. We've all been there. It's kinda shocking to see one's life reduced to such terms, though, isn't it? And on the other hand reassuring. We're all in the same boat.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 19:01 - ID#434108)
"Manufacturing Mahem" in Britain/bbc

(Wed Jul 01 1998 19:02 - ID#45173)
What's up?

(Wed Jul 01 1998 19:04 - ID#434108)
Bill2j's 18:56
Why Bill2j,
How dare you propose such a reasoned, balanced approach,
and idea..

among us buggie fanatics !

(Wed Jul 01 1998 19:06 - ID#373284)
goldfevr, Namaste...within the hollow of me
I kneel before you and find myself angered...such is me that I may be more kind... forgive me...if you have this in your heart...

(Wed Jul 01 1998 19:10 - ID#300202)
21 gun salute to goldfevr
Bravo!!!!! Star Spangled Banner playing softly in the background.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 19:21 - ID#218251)
BILL2j........Have you ever considered that we, at this site are
the only ones who are long at this point?
After all, this is a Precious Metals forum.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 19:22 - ID#399316)
Pasting a Link
Would someone please explain how you paste a link
in your post.


(Wed Jul 01 1998 19:22 - ID#434108)
EJ's question: UP?
Is this leading question, or what...or no, or yes....
how about - viagra - that's 'up'.

I think -- no, wait a minute...
I wait a minute...
I FEEL .... deeply, intensely, totally, with my whole being, ferver, and might.....
that gold & silver are about to respond to & reflect....:: )

world - wide events
financial & political intrigues
capital flows
'2000' - woes
human sorrows untold

with an upside bias
( all bias aside )
a spunky shot in the arm
will do goldbugs no harm

and as it was long ago
it will now again be
in the days & the weeks
that flow freely to we....
there will ...
in this timing of temporary midst and mist...
of me & of thee

the truth coming full round again
returning here once more
from eternity

and tho we may -- at least many among us...
fall off this calendar
and crash onto this ground...

there will yet be those
few, among us
who garner gold
while yet in town

as civilizations give ground
in this calendar holiday
and year

whether named for freedom's sake
or sold for a tear

when this moment in time
passes by, by & by

what will be left
in the crashing debris & the dust
but gold
and silver
and us

(Wed Jul 01 1998 19:27 - ID#348286)
@Y2K - "doesn't expect civilization to collapse, but there will be some time, of absolute chaos."
07/01/98- Updated 02:02 AM ET
USA TODAY - Y2K bug could be a plague, many warn

DENVER - With exactly 18 months until Jan.1, 2000, growing numbers of people are preparing to bug out when the "millennium bug" computer glitch hits.

Unconvinced government and industry will fix the programming problem in time to avoid world chaos, some of these Year 2000 or "Y2K" alarmists have begun storing survival food. Others are building fortified hideouts in the countryside, even stockpiling guns and ammo to defend their turf. Still others plan to shift their financial assets to cash and gold. Some do all of the above, and more.

"If you are the head of your household and you are not preparing to help your family, then it's on your conscience," declares Candace Turner of Cartersville, Mo., who manufactures "Y2K survival domes" and markets them on the Internet for $7,000 apiece. This month, she will co-host a 10-day Y2K preparedness conference near her rural home.

Turner and others fear a falling-dominoes scenario of millennium mayhem that sounds like the plot for a Hollywood disaster movie: Power plant failures, disabled planes and trains, crippled communications, industrial shutdowns, a stock market crash, bank closures, food riots and disarray for weeks, months, even years.

All because early computer programmers, in a space-saving move, used only two digits to record year dates, as in '98" instead of "1998." Their shortcut, which became the industry standard, could confuse computers and "embedded" microchips in millions of machines and other devices that would read "00" as the year 1900 instead of 2000.

Fears of what happens next have spawned dozens of computer Web sites with edgy names like "y2kchaos," "y2ktimebomb" and "y2krefuge."

Some host Internet forums where "doomsdayers" debate "Pollyannas" over the severity of Y2K's impact. Others pitch emergency-survival food, mountain refuges, precious metals, newsletters and books. "Get it before it is banned!" blares one on-line advertisement for a $97 package of survival manuals on CD-ROM, chock full of secrets deemed "too dangerous for Joe Average to possess" by government oppressors.

Offers for Y2K real estate crowd the 'Net: $20,000 shares in a 40-acre compound in Indiana, a $599,000 "survival home" two hours west of Washington, D.C., island lots in the Caribbean, and $10,000 leases for half-acre plots in "Heritage Farms 2000," a self-sufficient Y2K village proposed for South Dakota.

"God didn't tell Noah to sit on the top of the hill and let the flood come over his head," says Lua Sage, a Colorado writer and herbalist who promotes on-line her "Herbal Remedies for the Year 2000," a guide to gathering wild-growing medications in a Y2K crippled world.

"It's just going to be madness by Jan. 6," predicts dome-maker Turner, 49, a mother of four and grandmother who maintains a 690-member "Y2K Net family" of e-mail correspondents. She also has planted a "victory garden" for food if there's a millennium meltdown. "I just hope that everybody's brushing up on their Morse code."

Critics contend most of the SOS is just plain BS - hysterical hype to sell goods and services or hook an audience for fringe causes and conspiracy theories. They argue that if the millennium bug were a virus, it would be a cold, not AIDS.

"I have to be Paul Revere, but I have not yet become Chicken Little," says Sen. Robert Bennett, R-Utah, who heads a special U.S. Senate committee on the Y2K problem. "If Y2K were this weekend, all of the doomsdayers would be right. But when somebody says to me, 'Should I start stockpiling food and take my money out of the bank?' I say it's a little early. We have 18 months to see how some of these ( fixes ) are going to work out."

Despite government reports of progress in fixing the problem, some serious students of Y2K have done their own homework and don't expect deliverance from trouble.

Computer consultant Ed Yourdon, co-author of the book Time Bomb 2000, doesn't expect civilization to collapse, "but there will be some time, probably on the order of two weeks, of absolute chaos."

So last week, he finished moving from New York to a solar-powered retreat in northern New Mexico. Yourdon denies being part of a so-called "Great Geek Migration," the supposed exodus of computer programmers who, the rumor goes, know the Y2K fixes won't prevent disaster. "Most computer people will be working right up to the last moment," he says.

Joel Skousen, a security design consultant in Orem, Utah, says his workload has nearly quadrupled because of Y2K concerns. Most of the jobs are remodeling and equipping homes for high-security protection and self-sufficiency. His clients include "some Hollywood types," but mostly doctors and independent business people.

"It ain't just the wild-eyed fellers," agrees Florida businessman Charlie Brown, who is selling $5,000 leases for 20 recreational-vehicle owners to use his 2,000-acre retreat, deep in the mountains of West Virginia.

"I've got aerospace engineers. I've got mortgage brokers. I've got three computer programmers," he says.

Should chaos reign, he figures his clients won't mind roughing it. " ( They will ) look at a 25-foot RV and five people in it as if they were looking at the Waldorf," he says.

For now, the biggest refuge is on the Internet, home to an astonishingly diverse array of advocates for Y2K readiness: Investors, housewives, retirees, New Agers, hard-core survivalists and just plain folks like Ed Newton, an ordained Baptist minister from Crowley, Texas, a Fort Worth suburb.

"The great prayer and hope is that this thing is like your television set blinking off and on," says Newton, 55. "But we make our plans and our preparations and our prayers." He and his family plan to head for their 10-acre spread in the Ouachita Mountains of Arkansas if "markers" of pre-Y2K problems begin to surface, such as computer trouble with 1999 dates, or panicky runs on banks.

For those convinced that the worst is coming, computer chat groups swap advice on topics as varied as solar welders, outhouses, the use of "stun guns for snake/spider bites" and "forming a secure compound." Groups preparing to leave major cities for rural "safe havens" advertise on-line for like-minded folks to fill out their tribes.

One computer forum posting by a latter-day feudalist who dubs himself "SirBerserk" is looking for "serfs to construct a fortress, tend the fields, cut wood . . . ( and ) knights to protect the domain and hunt food."

Not all the Y2K'ers are in full panic mode. Martha Nathan and Kevin Kruke, husband-and-wife public relations consultants in Salt Lake City, are selling stocks and investing in Treasury bills - for now. "I don't think Kevin and I are crazy people," says Nathan, 42. Kruke, 44, sees "a historic investment opportunity" in businesses that survive a Y2K shakeout.

In the spare bedroom of her suburban Denver home, Paloma O'Riley calmly fields worried phone calls and answers e-mails to "The Cassandra Project," a grassroots group trying to organize communities to face Y2K problems together.

"We say it is always best to prepare for the worst and hope for the best," says O'Riley, 42, of Louisville, Colo., as Kenny G drifts from her computer speakers. "But we have a lot of people calling up who are depressed and scared."

Her group's Web site, with 200,000 "hits" a month, offers dozens of disaster-readiness tips in case the millennium bug lives up to the doomsdayers' frightening forecast. It takes its name from the prophetess of Greek mythology who spoke the truth but was never believed.

Still, Cassandra preaches preparedness without panic, of staying put and facing disruptions together.

"There are not as many people wanting to head for the hills as want to help their families, friends and neighbors," says O'Riley, whose organization has helped set up preparedness groups in about 30 towns and cities in 17 states, Canada and England. "This is not a problem you can run away from."

By Patrick O'Driscoll, USA TODAY

(Wed Jul 01 1998 19:28 - ID#218251)
Isn't Pfizer the one who has the viagra? Did you hear what happened to their stock
last friday...........................................................................................................................

It was up 8 inches!

(Wed Jul 01 1998 19:29 - ID#434108)
Gold/Silver market timing - on a more reasoned level & approach(than my recent post)
CDE - bell-weather silver stock/play - was up 4.5% today.
ANGLY - bell-weather gold stock/play - was up 5.5% today.

need i say more

(Wed Jul 01 1998 19:29 - ID#259400)
Kapex, if I were of the opinion gold was going to go down you can bet your last dollar I would be reading this forum. It is always wise to know what the other guy is thinking. My problem is I always listen to the wrong group. Everyone on the planet has been saying for years that the stock market would go up. I sat on the sidelines waiting for the 10-15% correction before I jumped in. I have been waiting since 1990. Everyone on the planet has said for years gold will go down. I have buying for two years now. At this point in time I have given up hope of ever making any money on either market. I have, however, kept my sense of humor.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 19:33 - ID#218251)
BILL2j.....It is precisely when you are ready to give up that the majority will share your
sentiment. Unfortunately, it is Usually the very time ( when you throw in the towel ) that the low is in or at hand!

(Wed Jul 01 1998 19:34 - ID#434108)
huang531 re: posting a link
it's ok, don't listen to their laughter;
i'm not educated either, on a-lot of computer stuff
you can e-mail me at>
and/or you can
'highlight' a url in your address-box, i think its callled,
then hit your drop-down menu "EDIT"
and select "COPY"
you get to your e-mail draft,
or kitco posting-draft...
hit the
"EDIT" drop-down again,
and then hit "PASTE"...
whereever you want it
or placed.

If this is still confusing,
believe me,
I understand;
e-mail me at:

(Wed Jul 01 1998 19:34 - ID#259400)
Informal Survey
Ok guys, as you know, there seems to be two schools of thought on the Elliott Wavers. Some thing they are next to magical and mystical in their ability to predict the markets. Others think they are certifiable voodoo quacks. All I need for my survey is one of two words. Magical or voodoo. Cast your votes gentlemen.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 19:36 - ID#28994)
One of the doctrines of communism is world domination. Somehow left of centre, politicians from the free world have either short memories or are just plain stupid.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 19:38 - ID#210114)
Gold as Reserve Asset looking dodgy.

Dollar to top reserve heap, EMU puts gold rock bottom

By Alden Bentley

NEW YORK, July 1 ( Reuters ) - The euro will pose no immediate threat to the dollar but is making
gold stores obsolete, as nations adjust external reserve holdings for European Economic and
Monetary Union ( EMU ) , economists said.

Market speculation that the euro might displace the dollar as number one in central bank reserve
stockpiles overlooks a more timely phenomenon: gold, once the world's monetary standard, is
rapidly losing its shine, they said.

``If one is looking for a trend in central bank reserve behavior, the trend is simply to replace gold
with U.S. Treasury bonds, with Japanese government bonds and with various European bonds,''
said Selig Sechzer, international economist at Alliance Capital Management.

Reserve tinkering before monetary union on January 1 has increasingly marginalized gold, as have a
remarkably benign global inflation environment and weak commodity prices.

Gold hit an 18-1/2 year low of $276.50 per ounce in January then saw a brief rally before falling
back below $300, where it has been stuck for a month. It stands more than $120 below the
six-year high set near $418 in early 1996.

``Central banks don't want to hold it because of the somewhat disinflationary world where
commodity prices are losing value relative to paper,'' said Alan Ruskin, research director at 4Cast

In such an environment, gold loses favor as currencies gain value on commodities and goods,
Ruskin said. Because gold and many commodities are chiefly priced in dollars, the buying power of
the U.S. unit has gone up the most versus other currencies.

As long as confidence in U.S. monetary policy remains high and investors have no fear that inflation
will erode dollar-denominated holdings, central banks will continue to favor U.S. paper over the
new euro and other reserve choices, he said.

``The dollar will at least be a solid currency, to the extent it is going to be part of a country with low
inflation, which is a key element in terms of preservation of long-term value,'' said Ruskin. ``That in
itself is going to slow the euro's progress in terms of taking over for the dollar in all sorts of

The yellow metal's fate may hinge on how the new European Central Bank ultimately apportions it,
vis a vis currencies like the euro, dollar, and yen.

With just six months left until currency union, traders and analysts have come to dissect every
utterance from top European bureaucrats for clues on the likely composition of the ECB's foreign

Last month European Central Bank president Wim Duisenberg's suggestion that gold will comprise
just 10 to 15 percent of the new bank's total reserves -- a figure well below forecasts -- highlighted
gold's major vulnerability. Prices dropped $12 dollar per ounce in one week, after those remarks.

Duisenberg has said the ECB's foreign assets policy is not yet developed. The disposition of the
11,000 tonnes of surplus gold among individual European central banks not absorbed by the ECB
is therefore still an open question.

CIBC Oppenheimer pointed out in a June 10 research paper that Germany, France and Italy, which
as a group possess some 70 percent of Europe's gold reserves, have been stressing the importance
of gold as a reserve asset in recent months.

``We highly doubt that Eurocrats would include gold as a core reserve asset in the ECB and then
risk undermining the euro's credibility by allowing wide-scale disposals of gold by member
countries,'' the firm wrote.

Analysts said the euro will become a de facto reserve currency no matter what and should grow in

Sechzer noted that after January 1 central bank hoards of German bunds and other European assets
will automatically be replaced with euro-denominated paper. Stockpiles of German marks, French
francs and other ERM currencies will cease to be counted as currency reserves.

``The relevant thing for the first three years, or the first five years, is how credible the ( European )
central bank is and whether the euro is associated with improved economic performance and so
on,'' said Chris Iggo, chief economist at Barclays Capital Group.

``The dollar is still the first-choice medium of exchange,'' he said. ``Commodities are still priced in
dollars and so on and I can't see that changing in the near term.''

Gold Dancer
(Wed Jul 01 1998 19:41 - ID#377196)
Gold thoughts
NO one is more bullish that me on gold and silver over the next 6 to
12 months. But.......there is that little voice in me that thinks we
are going to need a whole new generation of people into this market
for it to move. I really think the Bre-X deal and resulting melt down
I own a bunch ) of the Canadian golds doesn't bode well. What if it takes
another 5 years? Until people in stocks decide to go someplace else
we could be stuck. I have seen things change fast before and they can
again this time. But so far not yet....Thanks GD

(Wed Jul 01 1998 19:42 - ID#434108)
kapex @ 19:33 & Billl2j
who was it who accused who....of being...
"the predictor of the obvious"

Are you two more interested gold timing, or viagra?
( just kidding, & curious )

Most 'technicals', that I follow, suggest gold & silver are ...
itching to go up.

Bearish/Bullish concensus, is one, but only one....
important "technical" fact/factor/consideration...&/or charting value/pattern. ....
when timing the gold/silver..... -or any market/s.

( imho )

(Wed Jul 01 1998 19:44 - ID#34857)
Bill2J - RE: Magical or voodoo.


(Wed Jul 01 1998 19:48 - ID#386245)
1 ) Hold left mouse button down and highlight link
2 ) Go to edit and copy
3 ) Go to edit and paste onto your message.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 19:49 - ID#251166)
@ Bill2j
Any other choices, such as Competent, or Worth Considering As Part Of The Whole? Otherwise, count this vote Neutral.

Gold Dancer
(Wed Jul 01 1998 19:51 - ID#377196)
Thanks for the post but the article is just a rehash of what has
happened. Nothing new at all. BUT, that is perhaps the best news of all.
If all the media can do is repeat themselves maybe they are getting
desperate!! Sounds like an article a short would place. Thanks, GD-

(Wed Jul 01 1998 19:51 - ID#259400)
Quiet and orderly
Sure is quiet and orderly last couple of nights. Everyone on Prozac or something?

(Wed Jul 01 1998 19:52 - ID#37292)
Bill2j results.....
your survey biased as you suggest, but there is a forum where the shorts are predominant, it is this one. We just tend to lurk more than hope things will get better.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 19:55 - ID#259400)
Yeah, hadn't thought about that. I suppose there a few that feel neutral about it. I'll put you down for that.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 19:56 - ID#34857)
Bill2j - Prozac or something?
I don't think so, but we're keeping an eye on T1. He may Farfel out on us if we're not careful. Just don't mention Clinton/Taiwan/China or anything like that tonight, ok?

HenryD ( Got Gold! )

(Wed Jul 01 1998 19:56 - ID#253153)
Gold sentiment among the investing public is very bearish
Think about that ? Gold has been in a bear market for almost 18 years until the spring of 1998. How many people do you know that invest in gold ? I know none, and I have got lot's of friends some of which are very large investors. Gold does not pay interest and storage cost money. The public has been conditioned to believe that gold is a dead issue. That is a perfect backgroung for a bull market.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 19:57 - ID#190411)
@ Tolerant1
Bumper Sticker:

My President knocked up your HONOR STUDENT.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 20:01 - ID#34857)
Bill2j - Make my "or" a "neutral".

Gold Dancer
(Wed Jul 01 1998 20:02 - ID#377196)
All this inching up of the gold price and gold stocks might be the
real thing. Everytime before it shot up and looked good so I held on,
now I'm wondering if it will get anyplace. When I get doubts it's
time to BUY,BUY,BUY!!!! Thanks GD

(Wed Jul 01 1998 20:03 - ID#147201)
Old candy balls kissing ass up to China is showing his true colors. Anybody that would trust this bastard deserves what he gets

(Wed Jul 01 1998 20:03 - ID#434108)
GD & Bre-X & history's loss - not yours
Look out for the tendancy to let your personal, less than lucrative experience w/ Bre-X ( -or whatever ) , to color/or bias or cloud your thinking/perception...
of the reality that is at hand.

Of course, by definition - "reality" must be "at-hand" or present, or else it wouldn't be reality, now would it. ...?!
So please excuse me for my redundancy.
But my point is meant sincerely:
the markets do not give a tinker's damn, for how much you,
&/or I &/or multitudes
have gained, or lost, by the .... the thousands or millions...

The markets only care about this present moment
and this one
and this next one......

The markets are not going to go down
or up
based on our perceived/experienced misfortunes, &/or blessings..
...according to our prior trades/investments...

It is paramount,
in the endeavor of timing...
to attempt one's best
to stand clear of past experiences, emotions, & distortions carried into the present...
and, instead, to stand...and objectively so...
in one's private commitment to his/her clarity of sight ....

in hopes that all of the moment of now, plus history's...
might be perceived, & might be weighed....
with balanced mind
and reasoned summation
of supply & demand
uniting in the equality & liberty of this moment's price
& value
projecting forward in time
just as it reaches back
to its innate integrity from the past

as S & D meet
in the current market-place
of this moment in time....
( so to speak )
we can best address & identify,
their next move, by our objectivity....
liberated from all past experience of regret,
or future ...
of projected fear.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 20:08 - ID#37292)
for gold dancer
I can't operate my investments on "might be". It either is or it ain't, and until it is, I ain't. I wish you all the luck in the world and I hope you make a million bucks as gold inches up. For me, I am a buyer and coverer of shorts at 318.80, no less, with a stop at 314.40. I hope you will wish me the same good luck.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 20:09 - ID#434108)
ERLE @ 19:57 -- bumper-stickers galore
Please send me one of your bumper stickers...
no, wait a minute; the year is more than half over, and i want to get my x-mas shopping done early:
make it a thousand ( bumper-stickers )

(Wed Jul 01 1998 20:10 - ID#257148)
Let's keep tolerant1 safe ....
Henry D
and don't mention the "C" word!


'ee be right, 'e be. 'Twas you who named me salty, I am embarassed to admit I had forgotten. You said:

"You were gettin' a bit salty to some... ;- ) . But I'm STILL diggin' your 'Aussie Ramble', Mate!"

(Wed Jul 01 1998 20:18 - ID#34857)
aurator - ... and don't mention the "C" word...
OK, ok, I won't mention the "C" word ... er, what's the "C" word?

Oh, s!!t, you can't say, now can you?

( Maybe after he goes to sleep, eh? )


HenryD ( T1, Tol1, Tolerant1 = GOLD! )

(Wed Jul 01 1998 20:18 - ID#43460)
A couple of links
which I found via Bob Johnson's Gold Page, then to the Alchemist's Page. Standard Disclaimer applies plus I've not followed these at all long enough to know how well they perform:

(Wed Jul 01 1998 20:20 - ID#45173)
Excellent rant, my friend. I can see Mad Max ripping down the highway in the last of the Interceptors, gold and silver clanking in the trunck...

(Wed Jul 01 1998 20:24 - ID#257148)
whispering so only Henry D can hear
The IMF fellow

(Wed Jul 01 1998 20:29 - ID#429121)
More Bumper Stickers...

Ken Starr for President

WJC - What Would Have Happend If Quayle Had Become President

(Wed Jul 01 1998 20:29 - ID#218387)
@huang531 - Pasting a link
Place your cursor at the end of the link.

Highlight the link by depressing the left mouse button as drag it to the start of the link.

At this point the link should be highlighted.

Press control c

Press control v to paste it into your post.

If the link is longer than the window frame, divide it into two sentences by entering a carriage return after the slashes.


(Wed Jul 01 1998 20:31 - ID#432112)
gagnrad - Links
Data as of 7/20/96?

(Wed Jul 01 1998 20:32 - ID#403274)
aurator - shhh, it's safe with is.
( That is a rather nasty word, ain't it? )

( No wonder he... well, let's just keep it between us. )

( See ya ... Shhhh... )

(Wed Jul 01 1998 20:34 - ID#45173)
JP: gold sentiment
I'm careful when I tell people about gold. Buying gold is associated with "hoarding," a much meaner occupation than "investing." When the man on the street closes his eyes to imagine this gold hoarder he sees a miser or other misanthrope hiding in a shack in the woods. I even had a friend ( and you think you know a person... ) who said, "Gold? That's for scraggly old men."

Gold's got a crappy image. Compare this to the image of the baby boomer who's made a million in the stock market. He's driving his sport ute into the driveway of this palacial suburban home, where he's greeted by his cheery wife and the kids. Personally, I like the guy in the woods better. And after the market crashes, that guy with the ute, house, and God knows what other debt, won't be looking to swift.

On the other hand, I've had a few friends actually propose the idea of buying gold, usually at that point in the conversation about the stock market where they have allowed their unconscious fear to come to the surface: "OHMYGOD! It's gonna crash and stay there for years and years and years!" They don't actually say that, but they think it. Every once in a while we get to the detail of where and how to by it.

This site ain't no advertisement for gold, that's fer sure, with all the carrying on we do here.


(Wed Jul 01 1998 20:35 - ID#403274)
gunrunner - What Would Have Happend If Quayle Had Become President



(Wed Jul 01 1998 20:36 - ID#45173)
Hey! Did somebody say,

(Wed Jul 01 1998 20:40 - ID#222235)
inciting to riot

(Wed Jul 01 1998 20:41 - ID#287358)
C word

or, if you live in western U.S and have small dogs or other small
animals, "coyote" is the unmentionable.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 20:45 - ID#207145)
Yes the number is astrological. It was arrived at by Arch Crawford.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 20:50 - ID#34857)
EJ - Hey! Did somebody say,
No, that's tomorrow night, when we protekt "Tee-One" ( that's kode, use dekoder ring setting 159 ) from the letter "K". You know, Kamdessus ( sp ) , Klinton, Khina...?

(Wed Jul 01 1998 20:50 - ID#222235)
@You guys really
trying to get Kitco's ratings up with another

exciting evening?

Well . . . .

let me see.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 20:51 - ID#147201)
EJ re your 6/29 post at 11:21
Drop me an email, got an idea. TIA

(Wed Jul 01 1998 20:52 - ID#207145)
He is one of the best market technicians. I would never base market decisions on Astrology, not that someone else isn't free to do that.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 20:55 - ID#34857)
Tolerant1 - Clean fun ... promise.
Hope you don't mind.

HenryD ( nite, nite all )

(Wed Jul 01 1998 20:57 - ID#20748)
A hint
of better days ahead ?

(Wed Jul 01 1998 20:58 - ID#207145)
The market call,
is to sell into strength July 20. This Yen thing is temporary in nature. Some very bad things are going to happen when it again seems clear Japan is full of hot air. Bank remedys took us 4.5 years. No quick fix. Then it's look out below for market and gold.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 21:03 - ID#207145)
Be out by Juky 23.
And go fishing till Nov.1 The lows will come in October, and will coencide with the 3rd leg down in Asia. Buy Asia, Latin America, Oil, Gold.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 21:06 - ID#207145)
Time horizons,
On all depressed stocks; Asia Oil Gold etc. would be 3 years, as of last of Oct.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 21:10 - ID#207145)
Not Juky 23sic, sorry
Buy all hated investments at October lows, not the overbought profitless, worn out blue chips. Must have guts and a time horizon to become wealthy. That's my projection. What's yours?

(Wed Jul 01 1998 21:11 - ID#57232)
More from Tony Snow about WJC and China
All: More about our real-life Manchurian Candidate in Tienamin square.

'Chinese leaders determinmed to make Clinton a fool'

(Wed Jul 01 1998 21:13 - ID#93232)
gold futures
Saw a preview of Bruce Willis's new movie "Armageddon". Reporter was talking about a company that wants to mine asteroids. Says there's FIVE TRILLION dollars worth of PM's on an asteroid. The supply side is looking heavy...could put gold in the crapper...

(Wed Jul 01 1998 21:17 - ID#207145)
Wow JTF,
Looks like the pres is like a fish I caught the other day. Took me all morning to get the hook, line and sinker out of it.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 21:20 - ID#287129)
Steve in TO__A (Credit cards in Canada)
You mentioned that Canadian credit cards are being issued with a 1999 expiration date. If that is true, that just may trigger more gold-buying inside Canada.

In the U.S., some banks are already issuing credit cards with 00 expiration dates. One of mine has an 01 expiration date. Most purchases go through with no problems, apparently based on whether the merchant's bank is Y2K compliant or not. Occasionally a merchant has to make a phone call because his/her bank reads the card as expired; however, since many merchants machines read the cards with no problem, this leads me to believe that the severity of the Y2K bug may be overstated.

I'm open to intelligent opinions to the contrary.


(Wed Jul 01 1998 21:23 - ID#147201)
tolerant1 note
If you want boil, read JTF @ 21:11 re Tony Snow. God help.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 21:24 - ID#412286)
Susan McDougal ( who stood by Bill ) released because a curved spine, her husband dies in custody while having a serious heart condition ( but he turned against Bill ) , Web Hubbell cleared, Ken Starr vilified, MFN for China with Newt blessings ( corp donations ya know ) , Gold languishes as the Dow soars and Clinton returns from a triumphant visit to China... and adopts the REDS three nos re Taiwan. But hey he got on Chinese Talk radio and in a debate said killing innocent people is wrong. How courageous. But then again coddling dictatorships throughout history has always worked. Corp profits UBER ALLES!!!

(Wed Jul 01 1998 21:26 - ID#57232)
Is Taiwan expendable?
All: Lets say BC sells Taiwan down the river for goodwill with China. So far he's done very well with his commitments with China ( from the Communist Chinese perspective ) . What are our other allies going to think? What about our commitments with Japan? South Korea? For that matter, what about India? India is now a ( former? ) ally now in the doghouse due to our own mismanaged foreign policy.

Paraphrasing from someone whose name I have forgotten:

'The seeds of future wars are sown during peacetime'.

Sounds like something Churchill might have said about Neville Chamberlain.

Don't get me wrong -- I am all infavor of trade with China. I enthusiastically support the wisdom and culture of the Chinese people.

But -- I do not wish to blindly support the Chinese communist government. We ( the US ) do have some leverage with China, one of our formost trading partners. But -- it would seem from our leaders actions that we have no leverage at all, and must do what the Chinese communist leaders desire. All for the desire of the fast buck, with no thought of the future lives of Americans, Chinese, or for that matter, the rest of the human world.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 21:31 - ID#45173)
@Skip & Steve in TO
My Visa with a 00 date seems to work everywhere I've used it for the past few months. But I'm not ready to conclude that this means all Y2K problems can be so easily solved. Fixing the applications that verify expiration dates is about the easiest thing you can do. Compared to fixing an application that keys records in a database by date, and does calculations based on the key, like less/more comparisons, expiration dates are easy.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 21:32 - ID#284255)
I have no knowledge of the
The Princeton Precious Metals and Capital Markest Fund
In Australia.

Sorry but can't help you there.

I think the Nick@Canabeera_PM_Dogs are cheap fund
Would beat them habds down though.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 21:35 - ID#218223)
Goldfevr& JP.......had to grill the dinner.
On a short term basis trying to guage changes in direction from sentiment indicators alone is very difficult, but in conjunction with others can be very helpful.In the long term, and this is, IMHO, the ONLY indicator thats worth it's weight in salt for telling a true contrarian that something of magnitude is about to take place.The only indicator that will ring the bell, so to speak. At extremes, people tend to just ........give and admit that they have been wrong. What they may fail to see is, that when that happens they are usually not alone. Some time ago I posted an example of an extreme. 1980, Time magazine cover page, "The Death of Equities". I posted that I don't know about you but that was a unbelievable time to BUY. Lately I posted that the PM funds selling the PM stocks that they are sectored for is the equivalent of that Time cover.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 21:37 - ID#93232)
Your post reminds of Lenin ( Vladimir, that is ) saying that gold would someday be worthless and toilets would be gold-plated. Which CB did he work for?

(Wed Jul 01 1998 21:44 - ID#45173)
JTF: good one
I am sympathetic that the US is having trouble finding the right balance in Asia during a period of rapidly changing economic and political dynamics, but it's not right to visit China immediately after India has had to fire off nukes to show they are capable of defending themselves aginst the nukes provided to the Pakistanis by China, confirming the US stance toward Taiwan is an error, and visiting China without even stopping in Japan is a technical foul.

Ambrose Bierce:

Peace: A period of cheating separating two periods of fighting.


(Wed Jul 01 1998 21:44 - ID#222235)
@OK, guys
that's enough Tolly baiting for one night!

I'm sure he's read Tony Snow, anyway. Go ahead and speak up yourselves. You've got the cajones, too? No?

(Wed Jul 01 1998 21:47 - ID#411112)


(Wed Jul 01 1998 21:48 - ID#187109)
plat rise and stuff
I'll repeat what was said in this report.....ya'all might get a kick out of it........


"The real wild card in all of this is what happens to all

those Eurodollars no longer needed as currency reserves," Price

Waterhouse analyst, David Gulley, said in a recent speech.

"If a reduction in central bank dollar holdings led to a

reduction in the private demand for Eurodollars, this would

have a noticeable impact," he said.

"If Americans really understood what might happen to the

greenback if it had to share its role as international currency

with the euro, don't you think they would be persuaded to buy a

few golden eagles as a hedge?," he asked.


check it out...


good stuff about no deliveries from the roooooskies......hmmmmmm...

Japanese fund house buying en improves.......uh huh.

Perhaps we will not see this low price again until AFTER it reaches 400somethin' ( ? ) buy more


(Wed Jul 01 1998 21:52 - ID#412286)
Clinton's moves make sense
Maintenance of an undemocratic Communist dictatorship will ensure that skilled labor remains cheap and the stk option happy US Corp execs remain happy. This helps lower the std of living in the West thru the race to the bottom thereby further empowering capital and enslaving average working people in so much debt that they dont realize what is going on or who is the enemy ( thanks to corporate media ) . This will change when the collapse occurs, which Rubin et. al. are working against NOW on an hourly basis versus a weekly basis 3 years ago.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 21:55 - ID#218223)
Does this look like the chart of a top, or a bottom?

(Wed Jul 01 1998 21:56 - ID#187109)
Yeah.....I 'coined' ya' and then I insulted ya' by callin' you one of those Sheep-Shaggers.......sorry again :-^ ) ....... ( just kidding you Aussie Lads ) ........but yer still gonna take a whuppin' whilst tryin to get the cup ( Merka's Cup ) .......ohmy! pop open a FB in the good Name-O-Nick's

's Stalian for beea ( full accent,they don't seem to pronounce the r's )

(Wed Jul 01 1998 21:56 - ID#412286)
I apologize for my Anti-Clinton China diatrabe, have mercy, dont report me. I think we both know that Clinton and his crew are fine folk jes like you and me is.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 21:58 - ID#218223) $xau....3 years weekly....stocastics&momentum
Then get chart.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 21:59 - ID#411112)
Whats the matter ROR don't want to take me on.....CAPITALISM + COMMUNISM = INTERNATIONAL SOCIALISM


(Wed Jul 01 1998 22:03 - ID#93232)
ROR's right...look who's making the money on these Chinese deals. The same guys who could dump some of their extra millions into the Dem's ( & Repub's? ) coffers. And that's out of the change in their pockets! You've spent to much time on the links. Get out among the huddled masses, my man...

(Wed Jul 01 1998 22:04 - ID#284255)
GAO: Y2K could torpedo Navy

(Wed Jul 01 1998 22:05 - ID#411259)
..... Belief Manifesto ......

A recycled post from a year ago this week.

Wasted bandwidth for sure

But inspired silliness nonetheless

Hunting through these archives is fun

( The Dow 10K thingie was a pretty bold call at 6800, yes? )

I believe the Dow will hit 10,000

I believe in Father Christmas. Father time, and Mother Nature.

I believe we are experiencing the most prosperous times of our era and that things will get even better.

I believe that "The Simpsons" is the most socially relevant show on television today.

I believe the FBI reads the Kitco Gold Group daily. Howdy Agent ___________ ( fill in the blank )

I believe in soft pornography and long, slow, wet kisses that last for three days. ( borrowed from Bull Durram )

I believe we do get the democracy we deserve.

I believe that Capitalism, in order to succeed, needs but one thing: Markets.

I belief that the semicolon is far too confusing and that either its use should be allowed indiscriminately or it ought to be outlawed.

I believe that anyone who proposes a new law should be exiled.

I believe that anyone who proposes a new tax should be forced into servitude to those exiled for proposing new laws.

I believe a conspiracy should only be considered if it is possible.

I believe OJ is guilty.

I believe Johnny Cocharan will be as closely tied to OJ through eternity as he is in life.

I believe the only way to win at scrabble is to sandbag and wait for the double and triple word score opportunities. This has not worked yet, but I believe it will.

I believe Bill Clinton is sincere. I also believe he is a pathological liar.

I believe that Hillary will be indicted.

I believe Vince Foster killed himself.

I believe that Hunter S. Thompson is the most brilliant writer of this generation.

I believe that all human condition can be found in the works of William Shakespeare.

I believe that "only Nixon could have gone to China". I also believe he was a crook.

I believe that optimism will create optimistic outcomes.

I believe we are what we think.

I believe Pierre Sallenger has gone off the deep end.

I believe Ralph Nader is a truly moral man.

I Believe that the Smoking Man shot JFK and Martin Luther King. ( see: The X-files )

I believe that there are those in the Kitco Gold Group who are true paranoids.

I believe that there are those in the Kitco Gold Group who are true visionaries.

I believe the paranoids think I am talking about them.

I believe they are right.

I believe that any minute savings are not worth switching your long distance from AT&T.

I believe in sunscreen although I never use it.

I believe that Mozart was the greatest composer of all time.

I believe that Mohammed Ali was the "greatest of all time".

I believe that Mike Tyson is a petty rapist and a punk.

I believe if I ever told Mike Tyson this, he would punch me, and that punch would cause brain damage.

I believe in the benefits of roughage and bran.

I believe in a woody Cabernet Sauvignon.

I believe there is no difference between aging in French oak or American oak.

I believe that one does an apprenticeship in white wines and then graduates to reds.

I believe that the superior palette prefers reds.

I believe that Champagne is frivolous and best suited to women or men who believe their own press.

I believe that on New Years Eve, at 11:55 PM, there is no substitute for Champaign.

I believe I would rather live in California, with the occasional earthquake, than in any other place in the country with humidity, rain, snow, freezing temperatures, tornadoes, mosquitoes, burritos, or hurricanes.

I believe that the best burritos can be found in California.

I believe that the belief before last now makes no sense as it mentions burritos.

I believe that belief makes it so.

I believe that one should not feel guilty about enjoying an action movie, even if there seems to be an inverse relationship between the number of explosions and ones IQ.

I believe that Troglodytes briefly shared the earth with Homo-sapiens about 30,000 years ago.

I believe that dolphins and whales are intelligent, sentient creatures.

I believe that mice are manifestations in this universe of "pan-dimensional hyper-intelligent beings" ( this borrowed from "The Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy" )

I believe that nothing can travel faster than the speed of light.

I believe that we are not alone in the universe.

I believe that when we finally discover that we are not alone in the universe that the nationalistic borders, to which we attach so much import, will become less important as we all begin to view ourselves as a "pale blue dot."

I believe Einstein was right.

I believe Einstein was only the beginning.

I believe in quantum mechanics and the bizarre implications contained thereof.

I belief the "Twinkie defense" was an abomination.

I believe that the 1990s will be known as "The litigious society in which no one would accept responsibility for their own actions".

I believe that the 1990s being known as "The litigious society in which no one would accept responsibility for their own actions" is not quite as catchy as "The Roaring Twenties" .

I believe in gold.

I believe that Gold is a horrible buy and hold investment.

I believe that gold is a necessary evil in ones portfolio.

I believe that there is no such thing as a "proper portfolio".

I believe that margarine is worse than butter.

I believe that a Rolex is much too heavy.

I believe in Japanese cars.

I believe that a man should never wear more than one ring, and a woman never less than two.

I believe that the war of the sexes was a media invention and that it was never more than mutual hostility.

I believe all television news is garbage and that the only way to be well informed is to read.

I believe that Jean Luc Picard was a better captain than James Tiberius Kirk.

I believe in the Tholian Web.

I believe in causality loops.

I believe in chocolate.

I believe chocolate milk is a sacrilege to chocolate.

I believe in crocodile shoes.

I believe in diamonds

I believe that it doesnt matter that others do not know whether you are wearing real crocodile or diamonds, it matters that you know.

I believe as if it appears I have far too much time on my hands.

I believe in free speech.

I do believe I have spoken for too long.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 22:06 - ID#411259)
..... PS .....

I believe the 'Merka cup belongs in 'Merka

Yes, I do

(Wed Jul 01 1998 22:08 - ID#45173)
Nikkei -- Yikes! Up another +328.52 (+2.01%)
The Japanese gov't better meet these expectations or there's gonna be hell to pay.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 22:10 - ID#341234)
Why is Kitco doing a survey on adding more PM graphs when the current ones are always broken?

Who was it that predicted that the Nikkei would go under 15,000 and cause Japan to collapse? They were right about going under 15,000, but missed the possibility of a bail out at that level.

My own prediction of $400 gold by the end of the year was a big mistake. I assumed that supply would be cut at these price levels. Mining companies might be closing a few high cost mines, but they are making up for it by mining the heck out of any mine that can eke out a profit ( or at least break even ) . This situation will eventually reduce supply because exploration has slowed down, but it will take a while. I am patient and willing to wait until 1999 for $400.

Regarding the report that the U.S. may be buying gold. Although these pro gold rumors NEVER turn out to be true, this one is at least believable. The U.S. is going to have to use something to buy back all those dollars when CBs start replacing them with Euros. If the U.S. is buying gold just to dump it later, I would not say that is particularly bullish.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 22:14 - ID#344259)
Promey re stand up
Mr. Balls of Candy is the lowest form of dog blivits that ever came close to the White House. I can see thru everything he has ever said. His whole crew is so far behind the truth that he'll never catch up. History as well as current activity WILL catch him. No offense to you, but his offenses are too much, Charlie

(Wed Jul 01 1998 22:14 - ID#344290)
@ JTF re CB gold leases, - the specifics thereof:
Barrick in their '97 Annual Report specify that Barrick takes the borrowed gold and sells it in the market. The cash from the sale goes to buy Govt. 6% bonds and they usually have a 4% fee ( 6%intrest less 2%lease rate ) that they add ( 4%/yr. ) to the price which they will sell future production. If they sell and hold the bonds 2 years they get selling price plus 8%. I hope this helps as if you get the Barrick Report and read it ou will find that Barrick actually recieves gold which it sells and then replaces the gold when it chooses - up to 10 years should Barrick select to take time period out that far, before the mine repays the loan with gold metal.

For every year held, the price received by the borrowere is, increased 4%. Some years the spot price may be above the hedghed, in this case the hedeging mine would sell at market and not use production to return the loan.

Barrick has the right to defer repayment of borrowed gold up to 10 years.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 22:15 - ID#45173)
RJ: I believe almost everything you believe
Not sure about the gator shoes.

I believe we are poorer that HST is not covering Clinton in China.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 22:16 - ID#267344)
For those who still have doubts about gold and the economy...
I consider these questions every day:

Will employees/consumers be paid less or more on average in the future? Will consumers ( i.e. YOU! ) be willing to pay higher prices for finnished goods in the short term? If so, WHICH consumers - the wealthy or the poor? What about the long term? How about natural resources? Are we entering a period of increased or decreased stability? Will there ever be war again? Is the demand for gold currently being created by suppliers or consumers? Who are the suppliers and who are the consumers? Are the supplies of Gold plentiful - if not, at what price will they be?

Until you can answer these questions with some level of competency ( naively proclaiming, "I remain extremely bullish" does not cut it! ) you can only rely on faith. As I cannot answer these questions, I put faith in Gold protect my wealth. Obviously, I would like the accepted currency of my society to be protected by Gold. But since it is only protected by empty space and empty promises, I'll take the physical please, thank you. I don't care if the "dollar value" of Gold goes down. At least I can see Gold, which is more than I can say for those promises. Even if those promises are kept, I will never consider myself a fool for not believing them - although I will gladly admit that I was wrong.

"No Man is an island." Every Man must rely on His society. Some rely on society to the extreme. I try to give more than I take, although I am not presently willing to give my life for that society in its degraded condition. In attempt to take responsibility for myself I prepare for increasingly devastating societal conditions. I also make preparations for others for whom I care for but who do not see the possible futures that I do. Thus, I hoard cat food and blue jeans.

Gold is a tiny but essential ingredient to a much greater senario. It is only good for those things I may need in the future which I have overlooked in the present. There may be a day I will need it for food, clothing, Freedom, or to bribe some United Nations judge to dismiss my crime against humanity for personally owning Gold. If I never have to use it, fine. I much prefer stacking it in pretty little piles next to those cool little 10 oz Ag bars and assorted domestic and foreign denominations of cash and coin. I take pride in knowing that I can make it through an economic crisis unscathed even if I lost my job. Knowing, that is, while realizing that the decisions I make during the crisis would be just as important as those I have made in preparation for it. That is why I still listen to the thoughtful posters of this forum.

Am I prepared for chemical or nuclear war, aliens, astroids, or deadly cosmic rays? No. Perhaps I will be someday. I cannot justify the allotment of the resources required for such possibilities. More importantly, I cannot justify the emotional energy to worry about that right now. Perhaps someday I will be sorry that I was more concerned about trying to get my damn rose clippings to root than preparing a bomb shelter for the eminent Nicaraguan nuclear threat - but then again who would have known? Besides, we probably deserve it!

So, "Promey," these are my thoughts which I have given voice. Others have used different words. To sum up, Gold is a good "investment" ( or hedge, metal, tool, or whatever!! ) if one knows the reasons why they have traded their labors for it. I have sung the Golden Mantra. The truly wealthy, in my opinion, are those who are able to be providers/care-takers in any circumstance. My cat, I think, relies on my wealth in terms of cat food and kitty nuzzles, not Gold. For those who are only concerned with the "dollar value" of Gold, I can offer no advice. I can only wish you the best of luck! "We shall watch this new Gold market together, yes?"


- c

(Wed Jul 01 1998 22:18 - ID#411259)
..... Movie Review .....

I saw "Armageddon" today and it is everything that "Impact" wasn't.

In much the same way "Braveheart" was everything "Rob Roy" wasn't.

If this is too confusing

I liked it



"Mulan" is a MUST see. It breaks the Disney formula that has plagued their last five or six outings. Nary a dull moment, good ( not cutsie ) songs, and some kick-ass action.

Uh Huh

(Wed Jul 01 1998 22:19 - ID#45173)
&clone and chas
You got an email from me waiting for ya.

I lost your mailing address! Please post again. Much appreciated.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 22:26 - ID#396249)
ROR come on man I've been baiting you for so long at least take a nibble....OK real easy question

where has the socialist program worked ?...I
have no problem with you on Transnational
Corporations....MAI is where we do come
together....however where we split is I want
to keep what I on the other
hand want me to give to you what you have not
worked for....comment?

(Wed Jul 01 1998 22:29 - ID#344259)
EJ re email
You got a partial answer. I'm going down fast, but be back up tomorrow, thanx Charlie

(Wed Jul 01 1998 22:32 - ID#43460)
RJ, ROR I like both you guys a lot but you're, er, different sometimes
Here are a couple of off topic URLs just for you. ( 8-^ ) ) ROR, the first one will warm the cockles of your little heart. RJ you can pull out the second one when you need to analyze the effect of the EU on world politics and the POG. Seriously, this sort of cultural clash may in the end be the shoal upon which good ship EU founders. You will notice this post isn't copyrighted. There is a reason for that. IMHO

(Wed Jul 01 1998 22:38 - ID#411259)
..... From the same story EB posted his excerpt from .....

From the same story EB posted his excerpt from

"No further Russian spot market metal has been seen since the consignments made in late May/early June, and little progress has been made on talks between Russian export agency, Almaz, and Japanese trade houses on the annual supply contract that expired last December."

The key word here is "consignments".

Some may recall my assertion last February that, at the end of 1997, Tiger was financing and facilitating Russian palladium sponge shipments out of their own holdings. Another key to the puzzle was the statement made last week that Russia may use palladium to secure credits rather than sell it into the open market. Curiouser and curiouser.

The Russians aint got no more stockpile.




(Wed Jul 01 1998 22:38 - ID#267344)
EJ - write it on a stamped envelope and loose it in the nearest mail box!
PO Box 1790
Tualatin, OR 97062

- c

(Wed Jul 01 1998 22:46 - ID#401460)

7/1/98 -- 7:23 PM
High-rise burglar `Spiderman' apparently snared.....



(Wed Jul 01 1998 22:47 - ID#396249)
strat....we agree on some but not all,the lines have been blurred as I said to ROR I want to keep

what I produce...I do not want to support some dead beat because he is a looser....freedom created America not socialism

(Wed Jul 01 1998 22:49 - ID#412286)
I agree
Lets include all those with imherited wealth and devious dishonest political skills in corps and govt to take advantage of this. Lets hire the truly talented NON CONNECTED hard working people. New definition for Diability in Amerika... Young talented and no money...Talented but unable to brown nose or disability to fire good performing employees.. Take the two previous and add no inheritance...,ADD to that no connections but talented without money so untalented rich get the high paying no performance jobs and hire more of the same then contract REAL worker talent overseas a 10 per hour and reap stk option profits. OHH economic collapse of THE US come soon the saints beckon for justice!

(Wed Jul 01 1998 22:53 - ID#433301)
RJ's "Belief Manifesto"
I believe that your "Manifesto" is the best of the spam on the board.
AND I believe that other friends of JRRT are lurking here too.

Gandalf the White
(Wed Jul 01 1998 22:55 - ID#433301)
I believe that your "Manifesto" is the best of the spam on the board.

AND I believe that other friends of JRRT are lurking here too.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 22:58 - ID#267344)
ROR - I too has considered the "no inheritance" idea.
I am sure that you know as well as I do the definate problems it creates. It is a great idea that I have quite unsuccessfully argued many times. It is a solution to many problems in our society regarding inequality. Do you suggest that it is possible? If so, how? Is it ethical? Is it just? Please elaborate.

- c

Bart Kitner (Kitco)
(Wed Jul 01 1998 23:00 - ID#261187)
For a kinder, gentler K1.
For too long many contributors have shown up here with good intentions and great analysis only to be chastised and then, understandably, never heard from again. The defection of ANOTHER and his THOUGHTS! to an alternate location is evidence that this happens. I'm sure everyone can think of a few others who they feel must have left for the same reason.

I would say that 99% of all contributors to Kitco are not in any way responsible. But as is always the case it's a tiny fraction of the general population that can ruin a good thing for everyone else.

As of now a new effort is being launched to create an environment conducive to drawing in more contributors with the potential to enlighten through discussion about markets factors affecting gold and any of the other PMs. That is after all the objective of this tiny piece of the web - to share opinions and knowledge with respect to the ( precious ) metal markets for the benefit of both contributors and lurkers alike.

How are we going to do this? It's simple. Everything is already in place for it to happen. Our netiquette rules are sent to everyone who requests a password. For those who miss them the link at the top of this page can serve as a handy reference. Strict enforcement of the "be considerate" rules should drastically change the ambiance that often prevails.

At the risk of turning this site into a drug-free cure for insomnia, that is the course of action that will be taken. Anyone who slightly infringes upon any of the first four netiquette rules will discover the familiar Error 404 when they try to post. True, there will be well informed and talented writers who may be missed, but I'm betting that there will be even more showing up to replace them. Maybe not right away, but eventually.

If you're thinking right now that this probably means that you'll be history, then you're probably right. This would be a good time to download ICQ and start giving out your number.

Like I said this applies to only a tiny fraction of everyone who have collectively made the Kitco discussion group one of the liveliest and most informative on the net. I'm hoping to turn the quality up one more notch.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 23:05 - ID#373284)
This evening. I visited with MY eldest BROTHER..HE IS NOT WELL...HE IS A
LION...what courage...MY BROTHER IS A LION....

(Wed Jul 01 1998 23:06 - ID#433172)
That questiuon you pose to ROR is such an easy one I would like to provide a short answer for your consideration.
Just about everything that is produced and every service rendered has it's roots in the collective body of informationour species has produced.We do share, and happily, and we are free to draw on the achievments and insights of those who have gone before.
Please don't say thats not real, like porkchops and such. I could go on and on, Ann Rand is easy to refute.

EJ... I knew a Taiwanese guy back in the early sixties, he went to the University of Washington and worked on the waterfront as a checker. We called him the Chinese Checker. He wasn't insulted, nor was any intended. He was as Western as bluberry pie, told me many tales about the "Mainland Chinese" No doubt in my mind, the Taiwanese "situation" will not be resolved by capitulation. I was afraid Clinton would do what he did, where is our integrity now?

(Wed Jul 01 1998 23:14 - ID#412286)
There is nothing wrong with inheritance
But inherited money gives privilege to those who may or may not have talent. I propose a non racial based affirmative action for those who come from less privileged backgrounds whether black or white and in fact this would exclude economically privileged blacks. Now this is only a pipe dream that could be possible with a Wall st collapse and loss of the propaganda front by the CORPS . Oh mother FREEDOM destroy the financial system yoke on the people. Collapse-Freedom FOR MOST!

(Wed Jul 01 1998 23:15 - ID#267344)
The hand of Gold has struck the hour...
Kinder, gentler, and a thousand points of light, I say! Let all who have retained their wisdom in fear of being chastised now come forth! I would like to here some posts from the Middle East - perhaps Russia as well.

- c

(Wed Jul 01 1998 23:17 - ID#335190)
No sign of banking problems @ YET
Federal Reserve to U.S. banks: Maintain lending discipline

WASHINGTON ( AP ) -- The U.S. Federal Reserve today warned U.S. banks to "maintain their lending discipline" after an intensive study showed a significant relaxation of lending terms over the last two years.

The caution, which the Fed is asking its examiners to forward to all of the banks they audit, comes while many economists are expecting a sharp slowdown in U.S. economic growth as troubled Asian countries slash their purchases of American goods and as Asian financial instability spills over into the U.S. stock market.

"Banks should resist any tendency to assume in evaluating credits that the unusually favorable economic environment of the last few years will continue indefinitely," the Fed said.

American banks have earned record profits through the first quarter of this year, with little or no sign of problems -- yet -- from the relaxation in lending terms.

John Disney__A
(Wed Jul 01 1998 23:18 - ID#24135)
Are Markets Male or Female??
For Brother Oris ..
Yes .. brother blooper sees the markets as females
to be fondled and hopefully seduced .. an interesting
view.. I sensed that ..thats the reason I renamed him

For Bloomer ..
You are trying for ANOTHER 20 seconds of FAME..
Agree your July 20 forecast .. i.e.Gold will come
off and another set of second thoughts about Japan.
I think this market will chop for some time .. hope
gold goes up at the final resolution but this is
uncertain. Spock's posting on CB attitude is relevant.
This MUST change .. and that will require commodity
led inflation which there is no sign of. The reverse
is more evident .. commodity led DEflation.
Trend is for gold to come off and for yen to weaken..
Something must happen to change that and it hasn't.
RSA stocks will make big dough now because of rand
fall BUT this may not translate into high stock prices.
US players will NOT understand economics of devalued
currency on mining profits for months if ever. They
have been conditioned first by Mexican next by Asian
experience .. They will probably ignore good earnings
in 2nd quarter and crazy earnings in 3rd.

For RJ ..
Belief system is solid ..
suggest strike crocodile shoes and add dogs .. maybe
toss in old John Huston films and Chandler novels ( for
that touch of old California ) .

(Wed Jul 01 1998 23:18 - ID#396249)
George....Although I enjoyed Aan Rynd,I am not a cult member,collectivism is another term for

socialism,the pilgrims tried it and trashed with it,it does not work never
has never will

(Wed Jul 01 1998 23:20 - ID#267344)
ROR - I think it is a good IDEA...
Ideas, however are nothing without practical implementation. Speak, man - how could such a thing be implemented? To me it seems impossible.
- c

silver plate
(Wed Jul 01 1998 23:20 - ID#290395)
Very cute , very clever. We have lots of common areas, would like to debate some of the shaky ones.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 23:22 - ID#153102)
Error 404

F* was right about one thing. The National Socialists have achieved monetary, cultural, and political victory. Some perception or conclusion individualized F* to a higher degree. And, alienated him from the politically correct.

I will always wonder, personally, when I peruse Kitco just what else F* and the other 404's might have had to say.

Gandalf the White
(Wed Jul 01 1998 23:23 - ID#433301)
kapex (XAU charts)
I have also looked at the $xau charts on the cbs/marketwatch website and think that the present XAU charts look to me as NEITHER a top or bottom. It may be a bottom ONLY if the daily bars move up and through the 50 day moving average AND breaks through the top trendline of the three year long downleg.

Others input is requested, Please.

PS: I am long XAU Jan 99 75's and have goldfever again !

(Wed Jul 01 1998 23:23 - ID#285392)
You are making a great site even better, thank you.

silver plate
(Wed Jul 01 1998 23:24 - ID#290395)
Bart--Right on
I'm with you. No time or place for trash and besides we have an evironmental problem.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 23:24 - ID#252391)
The Yen in the middle
Yen is nicely positioned as of the close July 1st right in the middle of its trading range. Have to believe the reaction to the governments release of its plan to deal with their debt ridden banks will let loose another selling wave prompting a re test of the Yen lows and gold $292.

When is the Japanese government plan to be released - suppose we'll know it has been when the yen is trading at 140 and gold at 295.

September yen futures

(Wed Jul 01 1998 23:26 - ID#267344)
apology: an idea is never "nothing." Hopefully, you understood my meaning.
- c

John Disney__A
(Wed Jul 01 1998 23:29 - ID#24135)
How does he do it ??
to anybody ..
How long can the poor bugger that pays $400 an oz
for gold from ABX AFFORD to do this ??? I REALLY do
not understand .. Can someone explain this to me??
I would appreciate it.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 23:30 - ID#285121)
Your no inheritance idea is as socialistic as you can get. Those with exceptional talent at some point in age would have no reason to continue to be productive. Besides there are too many legal ways through corporate intities to negate such laws anyway. Thank goodness. Picture yourself worth 10 million or so and you pass away and leave your children hungry.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 23:30 - ID#57232)
American Barrick Gold loans/leases -- Thanks
Crunch: Thanks for reminding me -- hard information is difficult to find regarding gold loans. The example of American Barrick physically borrowing gold, and then selling it ( forward? ) to make money in 'paper' interest is a good one, proving that at least some of the CB gold 'loans' actually involves gold leaving the relevant central bank. So American Barrick is probably a major contributor to the dollar/gold carry trade, and a major supporter of the US dollar. Makes sense that George Bush would be ( or has been ) a director.

Gold loans to major producers like Barrick are probably a better bet than other concerns, because if the price of gold goes up, the producers can give their own gold back to the CB lessor. If the producer goes under, I would guess that the CB involved gets a piece of the gold mine.

Gold loans to non gold producers such as bullion banks, etc. may be not such a good risk. I would guess that much of the 8000 tonnes loaned out was not to gold producers, based on the sheer volume.

Also, some CB's probably have a poor credit rating ( Venezuela?, Brazil? ) and probably have to actually transfer gold to buy treasuries. Others may be able to do so without actual transfer of gold, just on their credit rating -- such as Germany.

Anyone know how much of the 8000 tonnes of gold loans was physically transferred to gold producers? That number may be accessible somewhere. Then, by inference one can guess how much gold was lent in another manner. This information, though imperfect, is better than nothing.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 23:34 - ID#252391)
For the XAU to show anything it has to get over 72 which seems like the current roof - as solid as $300 gold. Such a penetration and cross of averages at that level will put in place a pretty could and credable base. But we've seen those fade away. I perdict that we'll not know a bottom has occured until 90 XAU has been passed. That will be a time to sell.

The XAU will be fighting overhead resistance and beliefs that its only in a temporary rally until . . .

until a long time from now.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 23:34 - ID#335190)
GM Strike is an example of worker's union leadership are part of management Team EH!@ GM saving CASH
Manufacturing activity, construction slow, leading U.S. indicators unchanged

NEW YORK ( AP ) -- U.S. manufacturing activity slowed last month for the first time in nearly two years, damaged by Asia's economic crisis and two crippling strikes against General Motors.

Separate reports Wednesday said a measure of future economic activity remained unchanged in May, suggesting growth will slow later this year, and U.S. construction spending in May recorded its steepest drop in more than four years.

"If the orders are plunging . . . that's when you start predicting serious trouble," he said. "But that's not to mean we should gloss over the fact that manufacturing is really under the gun from Asia."

The prospect of slower economic growth is "not too surprising given the strong pace of growth we've had in the past couple of years, particularly in the first quarter," said Scott Brown, chief economist at Raymond James & Associates in St. Petersburg, Fla.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 23:34 - ID#412286)
WE would look at wealth and income. If your parents were unemployed and had no assets and just debt that would be a plus in YOU getting a govt job or scholarship for education. If you were a genius but from multi millionaires you get nothing under any circumstance. Of course for weakth gradations the poorer the more affirmative action. Further we would make it more difficult to fire people who had no economic wherewithal and make any decisions adverse to the employee subject to strict judicial scrutiny requiring the firing of low income workers as presumptively discrimanatory unless they were under 30 and from a wealthy family. As you came from or were related to wealth the extraordinary protections would phase out with only normal lawsuit routes available. NO race involved just economics to make it fair. If this were the state of affairs I would be saying GO USA ALL THE WAY. Comments?

(Wed Jul 01 1998 23:37 - ID#267344)
Suspicious: My point exactly, the implementation is very troublingbut...
I'm sure you can think of something more socialist than that! What if people paid no taxes until they died? ROR?
- c

(Wed Jul 01 1998 23:40 - ID#57232)
More thoughts about gold loans by major producers
All: The old profit motive is at it again. What better way for a CB to depress the price of gold than to loan it at low cost ( 1% ) to a major gold producer, and let then make 4% or so per year at the same time? The CB benefits a little while keeping the price of gold down, and the gold producer benefits.

I sure would like to know what the ABX chairman of the board knows about CB plans for the price of gold -- the ultimate insider deal. Strangely enough, this is not a SEC issue. Watch out for a gold bull when ABX unwinds their dollar/gold carries!

(Wed Jul 01 1998 23:42 - ID#267344)
ROR - I think I am finally recognizing the sarcasm in your tone.
Looks like I am the one who has played the fool on this one! I bid you all a good night!
- c

(Wed Jul 01 1998 23:44 - ID#153102)
Error 404
Mozel migrates. He will not write for a censor. Pablum is for children.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 23:48 - ID#267344)
Interesting - mozel - the plot thickens...
And what happens next? Shall Gold retain but mystical value?
- c

(Wed Jul 01 1998 23:48 - ID#373284)
any breathing thing that harms Kenneth was his name..TRINITY, upper West Side
Lorenzo Lamas MY NAME is KEVAN...heh...heh...081-50-8509

(Wed Jul 01 1998 23:50 - ID#187109)
*what if we get a wee bit spicey(salty) sometimes*
BART....oh king-o-kings.........will this be subjective removal or objective removal.....who will be the judge. Will it be 'puta judged or peopleo judged........I am scared now......I NEED MY KITCO!!! ohno!

can RJ get thrown out saying that the Disney movie is kick-ass?? ;- )

Bart....don't be harsh.........we cannot restrict expression......reduce yes........but how is the line drawn??

RJ....what's this nonsense about chocolate milk?? You can't be serious about that............and if I was sitting around with Einstein having a few bitters or some good "Cabernet Etrusco....Martin Brothers.....Paso Robles.......'93"....... ( best wine around ) ........We would ponder traveling at the speed of light.......and faster...... ( there is faster, we are not there yet ) ........uh huh.

I'm kinda with Mozel.......leave it to him, eh? let this sink in.......hmmmmmmm...

(Wed Jul 01 1998 23:51 - ID#412286)
Democratic Socialist
That I am I will say it to my rich Capitalist "yuppie" friends shames me a little as they are real nice folk and some of them I wouldnt even mind working with. I am the only overt socialist among these high paid people and they love me when I argue with them..Go figure.. surprise SOME even agree with democratic socialism. But I wonder?

(Wed Jul 01 1998 23:52 - ID#105111)
You invited comments on your interesting set of new rules for government to regulate who you can fire and can't. Here's mine.

I have a non-producing employee with an "attitude" whose work is actually negative: when I can get him to work, I have to use another employee to check his work ( sometimes myself ) because he will not do his job correctly. His attitude is that he is not paid enough to concern himself with quality ( I've heard him say this ) . His pay is not spectacular, but he's never done anything to get himself beyond entry level work, so his pay has stayed at the entry level plus a little more at the one year point. I have finally decided I need to get rid of him and hire someone who values having a job. He's been issued plenty of written and verbal warnings, but just can't seem to bring himself to give a damn. I've heard him say things that suggest he believes he is invulnerable because he is a member of a racial minority.

How unfair to the hard workers at my company for them to have to support someone who won't work! Seems to me that your plan is to make the protected job the standard for American business, by law. If you want to fire someone for cause, you've got to give the lawyers their cut ( "judicial review" ) . If that is in fact your stand, then I emphatically disagree. I think my reasons are obvious.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 23:52 - ID#57232)
Logging off
John Disney: re - $400 gold loans to ABX. What if one of your members of the board is a former American president, and the US government desperately wants to keep the price of gold low? National governments commonly try to move markets in a non-economical direction, just because it is in their interest to do so. Works for a while.

I'm willing to bet ABX got a special deal as a major gold producer -- backed by the Federal Reserve or some other government agency.

Also, I think those $400 gold loans were set up when gold was much higher that it is now.

Just an educated guess, IMHO.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 23:59 - ID#342376)
Error 404
I do feel quite sad at what has happened. Sad that we could not police ourselves to be more civil, sad that we will be policed. I'm not sure what these changes will have instore as we do not know how strict this policy will be. I don't think Kitco will ever be the same though. Many, many thanks to all the posters that helped make this a great site.

(Wed Jul 01 1998 23:59 - ID#335190)
Japan prepares to unveil "bridge bank" plan

TOKYO, July 2 ( Reuters ) - As Japan prepares to formally announce its "bridge bank" plan on Thursday to wind up failed banks without hurting sound creditors, euphoria is spreading in markets that Tokyo may finally be starting to solve its bad loan problems.

"We need to erase the bad loans and change over bad borrowers to good borrowers," Hashimoto said on Thursday.

Tokyo stocks surged in Thursday morning trade, jumping more than two percent as optimism spread that the plan will help work bad loans off of the books of the banks.

International Monetary Fund head Michel Camdessus said in an interview with a Japanese newspaper on Thursday that he supports a "long overdue" plan for a bridge bank system.