Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

Kitco Inc. does not exercise any editorial control over the content of this discussion group and therefore does not necessarily endorse any statements that are made or assert the truthfulness or reliability of the information provided.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 00:01 - ID#57232)
Logging off!
sharefin: If you can explain the time warping effect, please! My initial guess from a leap year problem would be a single day offset -- but if the problem is that a key caluation is done with the offset, and the same error is compounded for each time point from then on, the time offset would appear to accelerate. All depends on how the original programming was done.

If all of this is in the BIOS, all that would be needed is for someone to make the appropriate BIOS chips, or a flash BIOS with the appropriate patches. I for one would rather buy the chip already configured for my computer, rather than watch Warp 5 begin. Best if Warps are Star Trek only.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 00:05 - ID#288140)
Ran the test again after I saw your report.
You guessed it, I must have zipped right by that red x at RTC 01/01/2000

Gianni Dioro__A
(Tue Aug 25 1998 00:09 - ID#384350)
Steve in TO, Britain
Thanks for the background info. Yes, I think I read this from a "conspiracy" book whose subject was the illuminati. A friend loaned me the book that he had borrowed from someone else, so I don't have the info in front of me. The author linked the royal family to one of the ancient tribes of Israel ( Levi? ) , and said that the Brit in Britain was derived from the word B'rith.

The spelling of Bryth-onic in your earlier post gives it credence IMO, especially considering the derivations of England as AINland, just as Ireland derives from EIREland. Thus Brythain.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 00:12 - ID#402131)
Sharefin-I re-ran the program-correctly this time-I also
failed the first RTC test only ( ??only?? )

(Tue Aug 25 1998 00:14 - ID#350194)
Still Alive and Well
ALL - I am glad to see that all who have checked in tonight are still alive and well, ( as per the great J.W. ) , however I have been concerned as of late about some former fellows, large and small, whom have NOT checked in lately. Many here also share the same concern for our fellow friends in cyber-space. Therefore it is my express desire that each and everyone of us who has an e-mail address for a long-lost friend contact such former poster who we had cherished as a friend in the last six months to two years, who has not been seen lately, and ask them to at least post a short note to this golden concregation so that we may not worry for their well-being. BTW - Tonight's fare is much better now that we are not concentrating so much on which bullets are best. D'accord?

(Tue Aug 25 1998 00:20 - ID#34191)
Got Gold, Grub, and Guns
My husband isn't too sure about all the talk of y2k problems and the need to buy gold. He wants to know what y'all think about the POG going up. Wellll, I had to explain to him that all the y2k kooks are on the GOLD site talking about whether to use shotguns or rifles. He does know a lot about guns and offered this suggestion: We should use handguns for protection so that when the POG tanks because of y2k the handgun will be a better suicide weapon. LOL :- )

(Tue Aug 25 1998 00:20 - ID#233199)
I'm visiting Nova Scotia...
from Sept 6th to 11th ( Yarmouth to N.Sydney ) with my octegenarian father.

Any tips for not to be missed sights or eateries etc.?



(Tue Aug 25 1998 00:27 - ID#284255)
I haven't heard your results as yet?

The best explanation of "Time Warping/Dilation" or the "Crouch-Echlin effect."

Can be found here.
Make sure you read the sites linked throughout the page:

I also have some other links I could supply.
The effect is very real and embedded in most/all PC's.
And it seems the manufacturers are still putting non-compliant 'real time chips' in all of the new machines.

I would now guess we have a 100% failure rate for RTC's.

Given the diversity of posters@Kitco coming from a wide range of countries, and with a wide range of PC's, many modern machines.
One can start to glimpse the potential effects.

And this is only one aspect of Y2k.


Got Gold, grub and guns?

(Tue Aug 25 1998 00:30 - ID#411233)

(Tue Aug 25 1998 00:31 - ID#17077)
First, I must say I like the name Max. Reminds me of an old friendly neighbor I once knew.

Date: Mon Aug 24 1998 23:10
Max__A ( Farfel ) ID#173148:
Copyright  1998 Max__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Sometimes you make sense and then suddenly you lapse into a fearful illogical state.

( Actually, it just seems "illogical." In fact, what you are perceiving
is simply the result of neuron synapses firing at a super-elevated level ) .

The following earlier quote of yours today speaks of "a panicky environment." If there is any panic today, its that a gold retailer may refuse to buy gold ( at the rate things are going ) !

( Then, you must not deal with my retailer. He HATES checks, much prefers cash, and always takes at least a week to deliver gold to me. Still, I like his prices ) .

You are aware for example that the decline in gold stocks has exceeded the general market decline of the past few weeks?

( NOT my gold stocks...they are generally even from a month ago. However, if you factor in the extreme XAU dogs such as Royal Oak, etc., then yes, I agree the XAU index is tremendously disappointing ) .

Are you suggesting that this could reverse tomorrow or next week or next month?

( Yes, on the spin of a dime. I believe in an existential world...namely, just because today was almost an identical replicant of yesterday does NOT mean tomorrow will bear any resemblance to today whatsoever ) .

What sudden event could make it possible that I wouldn't have time to buy back in?

( Just one existential example ( and there are many ) : imagine Treasury Secretary Rubin and Fed Chair Greenspan...suddenly GONE! The result: Sheer populist panic. Dollar plummetting. Sudden hike in interest rates to defend the Dollar. Ergo, collapsing equities and bond markets. Precious Metals immediately perceived as the ONLY flight to safety. Jammed phone lines....lengthy lines in front of brokerage front of gold outlets...all kinds of tumult )

"I expect it will become readily apparent that, relative to the ensuing demand, there is absolutely NO abundance of gold and gold coinage in the land. Moreover, I can assure you that a gold retailer WILL NOT take your check and make gold available to you in such a panicky environment. No way! You better have a lot of cash on hand and a good relationship established with a gold outlet. At the same time, Gold stocks may slingshot upward with such force ( given the relatively tiny size of the entire investment sector ) that you might have to pay several hundreds percent more for a viable gold stock than what you would pay for it today. In other words, the aggregate demand should far outweigh the suppply."

( I like the preceding paragraph. It makes sense ) .



(Tue Aug 25 1998 00:39 - ID#219363)
You got me thinking about that third horseman, the one with the scales in his hands, the third seal. Regarding your question of the worth of the penny in the phrase "A measure of wheat for a penny, and three measures of barley for a penny.", well, I wanted to know too, so I went and looked it up in various sources to see. First, it turns out that there are, of course, quite a few translations of Revelations 6:5 and 6:6, so I'll just list them below to start-

Revelations 6:5, 6:6 ( Vulgate )

6:5 et cum aperuisset sigillum tertium audivi tertium animal dicens veni et vidi et ecce equus niger et qui sedebat super eum habebat stateram in manu sua

6:6 et audivi tamquam vocem in medio quattuor animalium dicentem bilibris tritici denario et tres bilibres hordei denario et vinum et oleum ne laeseris

Revelations 6:5, 6:6 ( King James )

6:5 And when he had opened the third seal, I heard the third beast say, Come and see. And I beheld, and lo a black horse; and he that sat on him had a pair of balances in his hand.

6:6 And I heard a voice in the midst of the four beasts say, A measure of wheat for a penny, and three measures of barley for a penny; and see thou hurt not the oil and the wine.

Rev. Lionel Cabral of Florida had this to say-

** And when he had opened the third seal, I heard the third beast say, COME AND SEE. AND I BEHELD, and lo a black HORSE [famine]; and he that sat on him had a pair of balances [scales] in his hand. And I heard a voice in the midst of the four beasts say, A measure of wheat for a penny [a day's wages], and three measures of barley for a penny; and see thou hurt not [take not of] the oil and the wine.

Another guy named Jay, found him on the Internet, studies the scripture and did some direct translation from Hebrew on his own. He also commented on what he read and put this down in text-

** The Black Horse represents famine. A quart of wheat for a denarius, and three quarts of barley for a denarius. A denarius was a small silver coin which was approximately equivalent to twenty cents which then was a ordinary days wages. The price for wheat and barley were 8 to sixteen times the price. The result of prolonged past, present and future wars which also leads to famine prices. Therefore a working man will not be able to support his family.

Further, comments on and from what is apparently a very scholarly examination of Revelations, Gnornon Novi Testamenti and Ekklarte Offenbarung, we get this discussion of 6:5 and 6:6-

** And I heard a voice - It seems, from God himself. Saying - To the horseman, "Hitherto shalt thou come, and no farther." Let there be a measure of wheat for a penny - The word translated measure, was a Grecian measure, nearly equal to our quart. This was the daily allowance of a slave. The Roman penny, as much as a labourer then earned in a day, was about sevenpence halfpenny English. According to this, wheat would be near twenty shillings per bushel. This must have been fulfilled while the Grecian measure and the Roman money were still in use; as also where that measure was the common measure, and this money the current coin. It was so in Egypt under Trajan. And three measures of barley for a penny - Either barley was, in common, far cheaper among the ancients than wheat, or the prophecy mentions this as something peculiar. And hurt not the oil and the wine - Let there not be a scarcity of everything. Let there he some provision left to supply the want of the rest This was also fulfilled in the reign of Trajan, especially in Egypt, which lay southward from Patmos. In this country, which used to be the granary of the empire, there was an uncommon dearth at the very beginning of his reign; so that he was obliged to supply Egypt itself with corn from other countries. The same scarcity there was in the thirteenth year of his reign, the harvest failing for want of the rising of the Nile: and that not only in Egypt, but in all those other parts of Afric, where the Nile uses to overflow.

Anyway, John wrote Revelations in Asia Minor ( Isle of Patmos in the Aegean Sea ) in about 96 AD, so that helps put it all in context. It looks like the Roman coin, the denarius, was in the actual Hebrew, but I can't verify that, and it would seem that it was a day's wages.


(Tue Aug 25 1998 00:40 - ID#255151)

Are these problems showing up in Dell
computers? Dell stock has been hot.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 00:41 - ID#284255)
Welcome to the Y2K Crisis

Better tell your man that if Y2k is a flop then he'd better sell his guns soon.
Cause the market will be flooded with them.
After all who will need them.
Same applies to gold.

Email chatter
For a long time GS people were rarely ever on T.V.

today GS people were everywhere.. on CNN/CNNFN/CNBC, news comments from
Abbey Cohen and their top banking analyst.. What I am saying they seem to be
trying to get the word out!!! Of course they are worried about their IPO...

just one last parting comment .... abbey says stocks are 8-10% undervalued
( which must mean that they were fully valued at Julys highs ) if'n the market
should fall a further 10% will she then say they are 20% undervalued ? ....a
further 20% fall will they be 30% undervalued?

(Tue Aug 25 1998 00:46 - ID#284255)
From what I can gather it's totally widespread.

Also Dell have warned their users not to install Win98 on their machines.
To wait untill they have a patch out.

Now with a Dell you aren't allowed to be compliant - ha!

Surprised no comments about the GPS Y2k problem.
That is huge news to me.
Another nail in the coffin.
Woman Arrested In Cyanide Mail Scare

(Tue Aug 25 1998 00:52 - ID#287193)
SWP1 (I'm visiting Nova Scotia...) ...try this one
A Nova Scotia Site with a lot of links
Let us know how you liked it there.

Gianni Dioro__A
(Tue Aug 25 1998 01:07 - ID#384350)
Servhard Nova Scotia
Isn't the Cabot Trail in Nova Scotia? It's quite scenic and very beautiful. Also one of Victor Hugo's daughters went to Nova Scotia and went completely mental. So don't stay too long.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 01:07 - ID#219363)
Also, while I was looking that up, I ran across that other horseman in more detail, and I was wrong about the first two sharing a sign, they both have their own sign. The first, second, third and fourth signs are for each of the horsemen. The first horseman sits on a white horse, has a bow, and wears a number of crowns - he is CONQUEST, or Satan, or the deceiver, his job is to go and conquer the world. The second horseman sits on a red horse, has a great sword, and his job is to "take peace from the world" and to cause people to fight one another, he is WAR. The third horseman is on a black horse, scales or balances, and he is FAMINE. The fourth horseman is on a pale horse and I believe is the one often shown with a scythe, or sickle, and he is DEATH. The final part, Revelations 6:8 says that their combined jobs are - "And power was given unto them over the fourth part of the earth, to kill with sword, and with hunger, and with death, and with the beasts of the earth."

Anyway, it's Revelations, and it's just saying that everything will pretty much suck.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 01:18 - ID#430182)
Moonswipe - I agree
Flag wavers have been notably absent this fall.
Get it? This fall?

(Tue Aug 25 1998 01:25 - ID#153102)
Well, well. Thanks for the Heads Up on the "Crouch-Echelin effect" which after all is said is simply a buffering problem which only occurs on boot from powerdown and only after Y2K because of the longer interval required for date calculations in BIOS then. ( Not to minimize. ) 1999 Bonanza for motherboard makers ?

There are now two potential sources of erratic behavior for embedded systems: From RTC and From 00 in Year field. Interruptions in electrical service constinuity will cause erratic behavior to appear from RTC which otherwise might have been deferred until a maintenance shutdown.

John Disney__A
(Tue Aug 25 1998 01:30 - ID#24135)
This can get messy ..
To all ..
Saw some jerk on CNN say that MAYBE the Khartoum plant
didnt NORMALLY make nerve gas components BUT they could
have run a batch operation to do so at some time. This
was after a Brit who had been an engineer at the plant
said that the plant's design was incompatible with
manufacture of toxic materials.
I would imagine that such a comment may apply to any
pharmaceutical plant in the world. I think this act
is more serious than Monica and the cigar .. I think
this is State sponsored terrorism by the USA .. and
without a serious motive of any sort .. other than to
cover Clinton's @ss.
This is a serious screwup .. there will be a cover up
to end all cover ups.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 01:30 - ID#219363)
Looks about even, some up, some down. Japan doing well.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 01:37 - ID#215379)
Envy--correction on the White horse
The White horse is riden by our King JESUS CHRIST, not Satan. Jesus is the righteous King that will bring forth "the great day of God the Almighty", Armageddon

(Tue Aug 25 1998 01:37 - ID#288260)
The Sudan "chemical plant"
My guess is the big pharmaceuticals are very happy. They probably don't like drugs being produced in 3rd world countries...hurts the bottom
line. My guess in the future you help the U.S. party in power with $
and you get your very own cruise missile guidance co-ordinates.
( humour )

(Tue Aug 25 1998 01:39 - ID#219363)
Thank you for that correction. I don't claim to know how it's all interpreted and leave that to those who paid more attention in Sunday school. *smile*.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 01:44 - ID#316193)
From Stan Weinstein, Editor of THE PROFESSIONAL TAPE READER
I'll have to key this, so please excuse the typos...

"Issue No. 643
August 21, 1998

By now, it should be obvious why we've been so negative for the
past few months and have continued to urge you to "remain in a
very defensive position!" This tape continues to act absolutely
horrid and each passing session reinforces our belief that we've
seen the high for this cycle and that we're in a bear market.
The fact that our short term indicators are so incredibly
oversold, and yet the market can't rally for more than two
sessions in a row, is yet another sign of the strong selling
pressure that is hitting this tape, and it shows very clearly
how many market players want to "sell the next rally" ( which
is why rallies remain so disappointing ) ! We still feel, as
we stressed last time, that "extreme caution is called for."
In addition, nothing that we've seen on the tape or in our
indicators has caused us to change our mind that what we've
just experienced is not a normal bull market correction that
will be followed by Dow 10,000 and even higher. Instead, we
feel that it's imperative that you continue to use oversold
rallies for additional selling in the many stocks which we rate
most negatively while, at the same time, you only hold those
select issues that we're bullish on ( and surprisingly, there
are some that still look quite good ) . But, whatever you do,
don't try to be "macho" and ride out a Stage 4 decline in a
Stage 4 decline in a negatively-rated issue, or your portfolio
will suffer considerably......."

Subscription Dept: 1-800-888-7857
"The Tape Tells All"

Gianni Dioro__A
(Tue Aug 25 1998 01:49 - ID#384350)
US Terrorism in Sudan
The spread of Islam to Black Africa is probably a concern to the US and UK as Sudan has strong relations to Libya. The bombings in Sudan may have been a warning to Sudan not to step out of line.

I believe today's "The Independent" UK newspaper has an editorial calling the US the worlds worst terrorists citing US violation of Libya, Panama, and now Sudan.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 01:55 - ID#153102)
There is a lot of police murder in the U.S. so a little police murder on the international scene ought to be expected.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 01:58 - ID#219363)
Soil Linked Sudan Plant to VX Gas
By JOHN DIAMOND Associated Press Writer

WASHINGTON ( AP ) -- Traces of a manmade chemical found in a sample of Sudanese soil formed the basis of the U.S. decision to launch a cruise missile strike on a purported pharmaceuticals plant in Khartoum, according to U.S. intelligence. A soil sample obtained clandestinely by U.S. intelligence led the Clinton administration to conclude that the Sudanese plant was secretly developing a key ingredient in deadly VX nerve gas, a U.S. intelligence official said Monday.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 02:02 - ID#219363)
Tokyo Stocks Rebound
TOKYO ( AP ) -- The dollar fell against the yen early Tuesday on continuing fears that Japanese monetary authorities will intervene to support the yen. Tokyo stocks rebounded back above the psychologically important 15,000-point level. The dollar bought 143.88 yen as of midday, down 0.52 yen from late Monday in Tokyo and also below its late New York rate of 143.95 yen. The 225-issue Nikkei Stock Average jumped 206.69 points, or 1.38 percent, to 15,195.05 at the end of morning trading. On Monday, the Nikkei average lost 309.84 points, or 2.03 percent.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 02:04 - ID#290281)
Oleman is up late tonight
oleman . . Mon, Aug 24, 11:30PM CST ( -0600 GMT )

Just in for a minute on the way to the boudoir. I dont wanna be long this market below today's low. A close below there, or, as mits says, a visit for longer than it takes to pick up stops is super bearish.

oleman . . Mon, Aug 24, 11:39PM CST ( -0600 GMT )

The danger is this week. This mkt SHOULD rally now. Failure to do so with sentiment where it is would be fatal, imo. I dont think we will rally much from here, but I guess that is also bullish from a contrary sentiment angle.: )

oleman . . Mon, Aug 24, 11:41PM CST ( -0600 GMT )

The broad market, and market internals are in shambles, the likes of which have not been seen this decade. IMO, this IS a bear market, until it proves that it aint.

oleman . . Mon, Aug 24, 11:44PM CST ( -0600 GMT )

If today's low breaks, all the 401k money in the universe is gonna be sucked into a black hole. I'm gonna be maximum short on that break. But, for the good of the millions of boomers and the country as a whole, I hope I dont get that sell. The next sell will make the sellers for life, but I hope we dont get it.

oleman . . Mon, Aug 24, 11:46PM CST ( -0600 GMT )

The market's behavior intra-day has been different than an ything since I started watching every tick in early '91.

oleman . . Mon, Aug 24, 11:50PM CST ( -0600 GMT )

We woulda made a higher high in the afternoon today if the bull were still operative, imo. If the first rallhy in the morning does not take out today's high, IK'm ganna get a little short. If today's low goes, I'll load the truck with shorts. That said, I'm goin to bed now, with a lim order in to buy 1091 while I sleep. nite all.

oleman . . Mon, Aug 24, 11:52PM CST ( -0600 GMT )

I said here many times the last couple years that I just couldnt believe they would keep on giving me 2 or 3 early selloffs to buy in the 10:30 window every week. It was SOOOO easy! Now it looks like the easy molney is gonna be SELLING the aearly rally. Mikrror image? gone beddy bye.

oleman . . Mon, Aug 24, 11:55PM CST ( -0600 GMT )

ps: I'm buying 91 tonite, if touched, for the same reason I told you over the weekend that I was buying 81 last nite-----thehy are either gonna rally it out of here,m or they're gonna run it up out of the gate and slam it. either way it oughta trade higher in the a.m. really gone now..........

(Tue Aug 25 1998 02:08 - ID#219363)
Jiang Warns China on Economy
By CLAUDE E. ERBSEN Associated Press Writer

Jiang restated China's commitment to keep its currency, the yuan, stable, and said he was confident in the basic strength of China's economy because of its huge domestic market, an expected "bumper harvest," large grain reserves and $140 billion in foreign exchange reserves. Jiang said that within the context of a market economy, "we can now forecast growth but can't set mandatory goals." He pointed out that this year's GDP growth target of 8 percent is lower than in previous years. China's GDP grew 8.8 percent last year.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 02:12 - ID#255284)
Tales of Middle Earth
I thought Gollum and Gandalf and others might be interested in the news that NZ director Peter Jackson just announced the Lord of the Rings Trilogy will be made in NZ with NZ cast & crew. $260m budget.

With my furry feet and acting experience ( same, ahhem, *class* as Lucy Lawless, aka Xena ) I'm confident of a "walk-on" part.


Gianni Dioro__A
(Tue Aug 25 1998 02:20 - ID#384350)
The World's Worst Terrorists are Based in Washington
Here's the link to The Independent's John Pilger stating that Clinton is a terrorist.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 02:22 - ID#215379)
Japan doesn't care ?
Japan apparently doesn't care that it could take the lead in bringing the SEasian countries back to their prior position of being Emerging Market Countries. Japan has to follow up, when it says it will defend its currency, like China did. The BEST way would be to sell US$ and buy gold....

(Tue Aug 25 1998 02:28 - ID#284255)
Olemans comments very revealing.
Time to go short - almost.

Many thanks.

Anyone interested in the power supply in the US read these articles.
You will need to rejoin the url.

Just keep going to the 'next message' and you will find some interesting info re power utilities.
And it's coming straight from the horses mouth.

Very revealing stats posted amongst them.

Good and bad.

Interesting to see all the OMB Co's getting away with it all.
Basically they seem to have exonerated all claims of redress.
They knew what to expect and have acted accordingly.
As per software manufacturers.
Talk about smelly politics.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 02:28 - ID#153102)
@Gianni What A Crock ! The UK is a bastion of terrorism from King G II.
What next ? A survey to find the world's worst murderer ?

Gianni Dioro__A
(Tue Aug 25 1998 02:33 - ID#384350)
I agree. Most of the UK's dirty work is carried out by the US. This anglo-american alliance is responsible for most of the World's suffering.

I did find it interesting though to read such commentary from a popular English daily newspaper.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 02:33 - ID#219363)
Hahahaha, camel. What will your weapon be ? That's nifty news about 260mil, might turn out, fury feet and all. How's that poem go ? Three rings for the elven kings under the sky ? Arm yourself with gold: And behold, the zero'th sign, and the rider sat upon a green camel, and jingled Gold in it's hands, and a voice said, "And let one million dollars convert to an ounce of Gold, and one hundred thousand to an ounce of silver".

(Tue Aug 25 1998 02:34 - ID#284255)
Scrambled url

Resplice the three parts to use.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 02:36 - ID#252127)
The Gold Bugs Weekly Comments are back at the Golden Eagle site after along spell

They seem to mention good quality companies in their analysis.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 02:37 - ID#255151)

There is going to be a UN inquiry into this question of pharmaceuticals vs weapons of mass destructions plant that the US just blasted to smithereens. The US State Department and intelligence services have their gonads on the line here. They better hope that UN committee finds some nerve gas.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 02:41 - ID#290281)

Gianni Dioro__A
(Tue Aug 25 1998 02:41 - ID#384350)
Sudan a provocation?
The masters are probably trying to provoke the Arab nations into attacking Israel, so that they can start a full scale war.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 02:43 - ID#153102)
@sharefin Politicians sell regulation as protection from the unscrupulous, but actually
by regulation the immoral, unscrupulous receive legal ( governmental ) protection and the politicians and bureaucrats receive rewards.

Paul Gold__A
(Tue Aug 25 1998 02:46 - ID#21484)
Mocatta Goldwatch
The latest ABSA Mocatta Goldwatch Weekly report is now available at

(Tue Aug 25 1998 02:55 - ID#284255)
If Oldmans thought are to come true.
Then we are at the cusping stage for gold's future rally.

When the US markets break to the downside.
Gold is going to start getting toey.

After the major tank, gold should start accelerating northwards.

Well planned methinks.
Yes, a huge buying spree of motherboards.
But not everyone's going to get filled.

Asian effect is hitting home.
Prime grade rib fillet going for $5 a kilo. $18 last year.
Butcher says no exports to Asia the problem.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 02:55 - ID#153102)
@Gianni The substitution of Islamic terrorism for Comminist terrorism does provide
an umbrella for Israel. But, it likewise creates an umbrella for all the other monarchies which includes the British monarchy. You would think Americans would notice their government is doing nothing much overseas other than proping up Kings and Old Communist regimes. Maybe they do, but how could you tell since the greater part of the American people seem to have disengaged from politics in justified disgust.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 02:56 - ID#39857)
The 2nd Secretary General of the UN was assassinated by the
combined effort of Brirish and US security forces. I take that
as being CIA and M15.
This means two of the permanent members and 1 with veto power
conspired to kill.............O BOY.
Nelson Mandela apparently holds info that came to light during
Hang in there Kofi. I for one stick my hand up to protect you.
CIA and M15 can go suck on Bills dick.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 02:58 - ID#284255)
Great weather site.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 02:58 - ID#39857)
Thats British and year 1961

(Tue Aug 25 1998 02:58 - ID#255284)
My Pleasure! ( as Monica said to the cigar ) Is your memory accurate on the poem? I confess that I must be one of the few bipeds on this sweet gold world not to have read Lord of the Rings. ( for reasons of nose, and spite and face ) would love to "hear" the poem in its entirety.

Are you translating Latin to Greek to Ephysian/whatever in your head? Cos I'm impressed with your erudite translations.

indeedy. ( who said that? where is he? )

I know that JRR wrote the Hobbit in Kathmandu, and if you ever get there, you can see where some of his inspiration derives.

my preciousssss

(Tue Aug 25 1998 03:07 - ID#280214)
First, thanks for the Horsemen posts - this is getting interesting
Many may pooh pooh the biblical prophecies, etc. BUT, as the boy who cried wolf was eventually right, maybe, just maybe this time around these prophecies may bear listening to - just in case.
I myself am a long time agnostic {brought up as a Catholic}. My critical scientific inquiring mind accepts little on faith or authority. Show me evidence or a rational explanation. Nevertheless, I do entertain the concept of a universal consciousness - not a group mind or "entity" per se but a connected "internet" of minds which can share information and experiences. In my dreams and semi-awake states I have read material and been to places that I don't believe I have done in my here/now life. I have no other explanation than that I am tapping into a stream of experience or consciousness - wiretapping as it were or surfing a universal internet. Be that as it may. I do not hold to a belief in an omnipotent "God", though an interstellar community may be possible - with its own motives regarding we nascent human space colonists and the effects we may have upon it or its members. Our history of conquest and colonization could present a problem to others. Perhaps a little intervention to slow our technologic progress down so that our maturity can catch up - television to start with, Y2K as a stronger brake and, failing that - lob in an asteroid or two. But that is another subject which bears more reflective thought.
As to Gold - my questioning and distrust of authority and my pre-occupation with privacy may be shared by many. Thus Gold and Silver, like cash money, preserves privacy in hand-to-hand transactions. This may become even more important as governments try to track every act and though of each human. I believe we can overcome the inherent inconveniences of transporting the stuff around for most trade and still maintain privacy. The combined minds and experience on this internet can solve this. We can share information while maintaining our privacy AND preventing the Internet from being turned into an omnipresent, omnipotent, all-knowing GOD.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 03:10 - ID#280214)
correction to last paragraph in last post
Thus Gold and Silver, like cash money, preserves privacy in hand-to-hand transactions. This may become even more important as governments try to track every act and thought of each human.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 03:15 - ID#255284)
My apologies! You asked me what weapon I shall carry. Well, I shall carry a Tupping crayon


(Tue Aug 25 1998 03:15 - ID#280214)
From the Notebooks of Lazarus Long
"It is easier to deal with a footpad than with the leech who wants 'just a few minutes of your time, please - this won't take long.' Time is your total capital, the minutes of your life are painfully few. If you allow yourself to fall into the vice of agreeing to such requests, they quickly snowball to the point where these parasites will use up 100 percent of your time and squawk for more! So learn to say NO and be rude about it when necessary. Otherwise you will not have time to do your own work, and certainly no time for love and happiness. The termites will nibble away your life and leave none of it for you.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 03:16 - ID#219363)
25 Aug 98
Today in history, Ronald Reagon is quoted saying "Trees cause polution", and in the year of our Lord, nineteen hundred, Frederich Nietzsche died. One of his quotes being "Convictions are more dangerous enemies of truth than lies". Also on this day, in the year three thousand two hundred and fifty one BC- someone laughed, someone smiled, someone danced, and someone cried.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 03:18 - ID#255284)
Lazarus Long (where he from?~~on the tip of my tongue)
I always ask telephone marketers if they'll give me their home number and I'll call back at my convenience.
You'll be suprised how little bothered I am by them.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 03:23 - ID#252150)
Washington Terrorism@As a Canadian whose cowardly, hypocritical gov't
supported the U.S. atrocities in Iraq, I'm sickened by the Independent article.

Clinton did'nt have the guts to go to Viet Nam, but he is proving to be a real long range warrior, especially when it comes to killing civilians.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 03:29 - ID#219363)
Tupping crayon, you're a riot Aurator. Lemme see- I've got a fairly good memory for poems I like, I can probably pull this one out, it's been a long time since I read those books though:

Three rings for the elven kings under the sky

Seven for the dwarf lords in their halls of stone

Nine for mortal men doomed to die

One for the dark Lord on his dark throne

In the land of Mordor ( spelling ) where the Shadows lie

One ring to rule them all

One ring to find them

One ring to bring them all, and in darkness bind them

In the land of Mordor where the shadows lie.

There might be more, but that's all I can remember of it. Kath: I'm sure it is a beautiful place, seen it in books, and would love to travel there. I think my next trip will be Machu Picchu assuming all out war doesn't break out - I had wanted to go to Egypt, but went to Italy instead when those tourists got killed. Maybe someday. Oh, and no, I'm not pulling translations out of my head.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 03:31 - ID#39857)
Re gold
A$57.67, seems to keep wanting to bite the dust.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 03:49 - ID#153102)
@Asset Protection
An asset, I presume, is something you own absolutely. Your motor vehicle is not owned by you unless you have the Manufacturer's Statement of Origin in your possession. Your "State of" has that document and is the legal owner of your motor vehicle.

Your "real estate" is something else you may consider an asset. Disabuse yourself. You are not the legal owner for thee reasons. First, you are a "resident" of your State, so you are an alien. Second, you have an alter ego or artificial person attached to you, a sole corporation, that actually is the legal party in the real estate transaction. Third, you did not pay with specie.

. It is settled, that AN ALIEN or a corporation may, by purchase, take land, BUT CANNOT HOLD; ...; but it shall belong to THE SOVEREIGN, UPON OFFICE FOUND. It is otherwise in regard to the act of law. If the heir, of one dying seized of land, be an ALIEN, the law will NOT CAST THE DESCENT ON HIM, because he cannot hold beneficially, and the law will not give with one hand and take away with the other, but will cast the
descent upon the next relation who is capable of holding. For the
same reason, an ALIEN husband does not take as tenant by the
curtesy, nor an ALIEN wife take dower....

.....It is a well-settled rule of law in England, AND IN THIS
UNION, that an ALIEN may acquire lands by purchase, and may hold
them against all persons EXCEPT THE KING, OR THE STATE; [ "THE KING, OR THE STATE" The King seems still a person in American law, Did the King GIVE UP ALL RIGHTS IN THE 1783 TREATY? READ ON] but upon office found, the KING IN ENGLAND, or THE STATE IN THIS COUNTRY, MAY SEIZE AND HAVE THEM. Co. Lit. 2; 1 Black. Com. 372.
... There can be no doubt, then, of the rule of law,
whatever may be the reason for it, that an ALIEN may acquire by
purchase, land or any other species of real estate, and may hold
it against all persons EXCEPT THE KING OR STATE; and may hold
even against the sovereign, until he may choose to have an office
found, and process thereupon to have it seized into his hands.

Among the modes of acquisition in England AND IN THIS STATE, is
that by devise, or disposition contained in a man's last will.
Hence, in England, and perhaps in this State, an alien might take
real property by devise, which would give him a good title to it,
as against all persons BUT THE SOVEREIGN...." TRUSTEES, DAVIDSON
COLLEGE v. CHAMBERS' EXECUTORS, 56 N.C. 253 ( 1857 )

You are certainly not the legal owner of shares of stock that are not in your name and in your possession. Even if they are in your name and in your possession, you ownership is not proved yet to me. Because everything about the corporation is subject to the will of the legislature.

Those people who say all of the planks of the Communist Manifesto are enacted in American law are quite correct.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 03:55 - ID#153102)
@What is a Tupping Crayon ?
And what caliber is it ?

(Tue Aug 25 1998 03:57 - ID#329186)
Hedgecock ( hotter than hot) 02:56
I think it would be more like MI6 than MI5 the later is for internal affairs and for info MI6 partially fund the BBC

go gold carefull who you trust

(Tue Aug 25 1998 04:04 - ID#280214)
Aurator - Lazarus Long - a few hints for you
aka Woodrow Wilson Smith ( WoodyCaptain Aaron Sheffield, Ernest Gibbons, Corporal Ted Bronson, Mr. Justice Lenox, and Senior member of the Howard Families {often referred to as "The Senior"}.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 04:10 - ID#280214)
The only things you "own"
are those which you can defend from theft or destruction by others.
Said defense by yourself or with the aid of trusted friends or {and this last is unreliable to say the least} with the aid of commonly agreed upon laws and a collective effort to enforce them.

P.S. - on the last post my cut & paste left out a paretheses between
( Woody ) and Captain Aaron Sheffield

(Tue Aug 25 1998 04:10 - ID#219363)
Unfortunately I'll have to wait until later today to respond to what you wrote, I can hardly keep myself awake and need to get some shut-eye. As always, the forum that is golden has lots of nifty stuff on it. Cheers.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 04:12 - ID#255285)

(Tue Aug 25 1998 04:13 - ID#39857)
And a mouse appears from his hole
Who are you CPO. Get a life. My Mistake. Mi6 or who ever these
colonialistic bastards want to call themselves.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 04:16 - ID#153102)
Shellor says it will take two generations for Russia to regenerate. My question is what will be the spiritual force that will act as the causa causans of this ?

The agnostics, the empricists, and the objective rationalists of the West stand on foundations of Christian doctrine, but think naught of it. They assume the victories over barbarism were won by agmosticism, empiricism, and objective rationalism, but they do so with no evidence that I know of. Surely, superstition has given way to them, but has barbarism ?

What is there in agnosticism, empiricism, or objective rationalism that would restrain an interrogator from using torture to obtain a confession or information ? Organized religion is like organized anything. All the evils of bureauacracy are in it. But, what has that to do with the individual ?

There is an inherent impulse to society in humankind. And at the species level, this is sufficient for survival in dire circumstances. Hence, even barbarians survive. But, higher forms and levels of co-operation require something more in my read of history.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 04:20 - ID#255285)
I'm glad you asked.

It is the crayon attached around a ram's belly that marks a ewe's back in tupping time.

I feel a song coming on:

Tupping time! Tupping time!
Tup, tup. Tupping time!

I kinda see myself as Dali in the field of battle- armed with a tupping crayon I shall dart hither and yon, armed with a rainbow of pretty colours, here a mauve, there a pink. A man should not go into battle without a tupping crayon.


(Tue Aug 25 1998 04:29 - ID#280214)
Gianni Dioro - re UK using the US
I saw a documentary on the sinking of the Lusitania.
Apparently Churchill invited neutral nations like the US to send merchant ships to the UK not only to provide supplies but to be targets. It was said that he had said that if ships of those neutral nations were sunk then those nations would be provoked into joining the UK in the war effort and that this was good. The Lusitania was carrying ammo, though it did not explode and contribute to her sinking. The British intelligence and government knew of U20's sinking of three other vessels along the southern coast. It knew of the risk to the Lusitania, it did not advise the Lusitania strongly enough of the threat such that the ship's captain would have ordered the internal doors closed. This precaution could have prevented her sinking - unless more torpedoes had been fired.
Again, as with Pearl Harbor, Churchill used bait to lure the enemy into an attack that brought the US into the war. {though it took much longer in WWI than in WWII - Churchill became more efficient with experience}

(Tue Aug 25 1998 04:37 - ID#39857)
Anyhow the locals know whos who
And you CPO@AU are a neutron star. Suck in hard.
Go gold, Kofi for leader of a unified planet.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 04:39 - ID#240288)
Abu Nidal in Custody
LA Times reporting Abu Nidal is in custody in Egypt.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 04:40 - ID#280214)
What is there in Judeo-Christian theology or practice that would restrain an interrogator from using torture to obtain a confession or information?
Western Judeo-Christian "foundations" do not have a monopoly on creation or sustaining of respect by individuals for other individual's liberties.
Everything that is "good" is not Judeo-Christian. Arguments to that effect are similar to the Russians arguing that they invented everything, or the Americans saying they invented everything.
I do not need Judeo-Christian theology and indoctrination to respect other individual's liberties. Other religions and, for that matter, other non-religious philosophies will suffice for that purpose just as well.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 04:46 - ID#153102)
@Plots, not conspiracies, mind you
Regulation provides the legal framework for planned crime and government protection for the getaway.
Secret services provide the capability to create the provocation and the response to it completely independent of opposition. No actual enemy need exist.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 04:53 - ID#153102)
@Squirrel @T1
It is good you are a tree rodent, for you have no ground to stand on. Most of the time. Hint in response to your question: Golden Rule.

T1, all accidents are shocking. Hope you are good as new soon.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 05:03 - ID#300202)
I'm located on Trans Canada Hwy - 20 mins west of North Sydney-after u
come down to the base of Kelly's Mountain-cross 1000 ft long bridge-
I'm 2 mins further-waterside-large Cape Cod style log home. Drop in if you get the chance or e

(Tue Aug 25 1998 05:05 - ID#280214)
Envy - pardon my unchronological responses as I catch up on my reading
Your 00:39 adds much to my understanding.
The common thread of a day's wages for a day's ration of food is consistent with most of humanity's experience over the eons. It is only rarely that the average person eeked out a lifestyle much beyond subsistence for his and her selves and their family. Thus a day's labor to provide a day's food and maybe a bit more labor to provide shelter and clothing. That was the average human's lot in life - getting by day to day.

We in the developed countries enjoy a standard of living far in excess of this subsistence level - in spite of our whining to the contrary. If we restrained our consumption to the basics of life, we could likely live on a quarter or less of our present incomes. I know this. I have lived on $100 per week for the last fifteen years {and often less than that for many of those years}. Even at that level - I could have gotten by on less, especially if I had a mate with which to share basic expenses.

Perhaps the third horsemen is conveying the message of a return to such a basic subsistence way of life. This prospect is ominous to say the least to those who now enjoy six-digit incomes with grand homes and travels about the world. Those in the middle-class would have a mighty culture shock as well. Those scraping in a hand-to-mouth existence would perhaps not notice much change unless their meager incomes are wiped out entirely and thus they starve. But again I return to the image of that third horseman. To the last group - a day's wages for a day's food is the standard of living where they exist now. It is the affluent who will suffer and the affluent, in Judeo-Christian theology, are those who are regarded as sinners - simply because of their affluent lifestyles.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 05:07 - ID#280214)
Mozel - it is fortunate to be able to climb trees
It gives one a better perspective of the landscape.
Ground-dwellers can barely see beyond the litter on the forest floor.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 05:17 - ID#280214)
Mooney - your 00:14 is good advice, well to be taken to heart
I have belonged to several organizations over the years who lost and are losing members simply because the individuals therein do not make an adequate effort to maintain contact with each other. A member misses a few meetings and no other members call to ask if he or she is okay or to express that they miss his or her presence. The absent member, noting that they are apparently not missed, loses his or her feeling of connectedness, of bonding to the group. They rationalize that since the others don't care much about him or her, then he or she should not care much about them either. Nevertheless, the dissolution of those bonds leaves an empty feeling or perhaps a wound which takes a long time to heal - if ever. A sense of belonging is important to each of us. And your suggestion that we should send word to those who are apparently missing is something we should do. Perhaps they are occassional lurkers checking in from time to time and doing a word search for their old handle - just to see if anyone cares that they have been absent for a while.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 05:20 - ID#255285)
are you implying that the golden rule is christian in origin?

If I could be bothered i could show that most of the commandments were in existence prior to the sermon on the mount. Please, how old is this sweet gold world in your cosmology?

democracy is not christian in origin, nor of necessity is it christian, again, if i could be bothered, i could argue that democracy is anathema to the christian church.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 05:28 - ID#26793)
The Euro will challenge the dollar as a reserve currency.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 05:30 - ID#284255)
Globex stimulation???
The PPT must have read Oldman's comments.
Press the red button - now.

SPU8 is going beserk - vol and price.

Patience my precious...

(Tue Aug 25 1998 05:30 - ID#280214)
an addendum to the last post - obvious maybe, but worth adding
If one is not missed in this life, if no one apparently cares if they exist or not, then that person can easily begin to think that it matters not to anyone if they are gone. Suicide is a very short step from there. I speak from experience - I have seen the cliff, I have looked over its edge, and have backed off from it. Today I know where that edge is and I know that I dare not approach it because I may not be able to confidently look into the abysss and walk away. I know my limits and the dangers associated with pushing those limits. Perhaps someday I shall tackle that cliff-edge again, perhaps I shall open that box of demons - when I am strong enough to face it/them or when I have the support of others to help me face it/them. In the meantime I am confident in my ability to watch where I walk and to handle the tools that I have acquired. Perhaps I have gotten some control of those demons. Now it my turn to reach out to others - for only together can we deal with demons greater than ourselves.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 05:31 - ID#255285)
do not pull me up on my lack of knowledge of your book. I mean when the commandments were wrote in stone and given to moses ( ? )

(Tue Aug 25 1998 05:32 - ID#153102)
@Fiat Credit vs. Fiat @Squirrel
I myself have carelessly referred to the money as fiat. But, it is actually, worldwide, fiat credit money. The difference is important.
Fiat credit liquidates tangibles. A car loan and a real estate mortgage and a credit card balance all creditize by fiat the tangibles ( and intangibles ) purchased. A fall in asset valuations would have no effect on a purely fiat money, but it is death to a fiat credit money, because the lender is bankrupted. At first, only technically, but eventually actually. Lo, Japan.

The US, I think, is bubbled up in more than the stock market. In top end real estate I see a bubble, too. The same people, generally, who have bubble portfolios also have the bubble real estate. The full faith and credit of the United States rests on the security of the nation's real estate valuation.

@Squirrel It is good Squirrels look up occasionally from gathering nuts.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 05:33 - ID#26793)
Morning European currency news and comment.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 05:38 - ID#26793)
Trading in rubles suspended twice this morning. "People just don't want 'em"

(Tue Aug 25 1998 05:39 - ID#280214)
Aurator - you can be sure that he will try to bother you to do so
I agree with your statements and premises.
I have had friends who believed in and adhered to non Judeo-Christian religions. Many of them were originally raised as Christians but they turned to Hinduism or Buddhism or other religions to satisfy their needs.
I have known others who were raised in those other religions or ways of life and I believe them to be as "good" as any Christian. In many respects they have an inner peace and inner strengths and an outlook upon nature and humanity in general and other individuals that is much more tolerant of others liberties and freedoms than most Judeo-Christian religions or at least as those religions are commonly practiced.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 05:44 - ID#26793)
Hello, Japan? This is Germany calling. Look; we have this Russian problem and ....

(Tue Aug 25 1998 05:53 - ID#280214)
ROR - take Mike's 20:48 advice and read Atlas Shrugged
If for no other reason than to take Earl up on his 20:52 of last night.

When I finally read it, after being advised to for years, I wished that I had read it decades ago. Truly a great book - though the monologues do get a might long toward the end, especially if you are impatient to get to the end of the story. When I re-read it I shall read those monologues in their entirety - or perhaps read them as stand alone pieces BEFORE I read the book again.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 05:55 - ID#153102)
Well, yes, actually I dare maintain the message of Christ is Christian in origin. Ou sont les halos d'antan ? In the chapel in Ravenna all the depicted figures have an aura, a halo, if you will. Is this depiction by style or of substance ? It was all so long ago and, really, do we actully know what happened just yesterday ? Were there planes over Sudan or only missles ?

To stay on point, there was some crude form of law of redistribution ( From each according to his ability, to each according to his need. ) in the law according to Marx. There is no law in Russia now. What would be the foundation for a new system of law there by which society and the nation might be regenerated ? I think they will have simply order imposed there by the strongest of the strong. But, that arrangement, historically, is prey to many inconveniences.

I fear being mistaken for the London Missionary Society if this goes further.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 05:56 - ID#255285)
we have very good access to news in this group, courtesy of Donald, sharefin, Colin Seymour and a dozen others, what I would appreciate is a series of personal experiences/vignettes/scenesof life in your part of this sweet gold world. Just like your description of the empty,hulks of broken dreams. What do your friends and colleagues talk about? Do they think of international finance? Are the precious metals part of the mental horizon?

(Tue Aug 25 1998 05:59 - ID#280214)
RTC bug and all the fretting over non-compliant PCs
Some software in my collection may not handle post 2000 dates,
especially if those dates are entered in two digits.
BUT, nevertheless, as far as the hardware and operating systems are concerned, I have numerous computers made from 1985 through 1997 which are Y2K compliant. They are Macintoshes. Now if only I will have the electricity to power them {though 40 watts for a Mac128 isn't asking much - maybe solar would do}.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 06:03 - ID#255285)
one of the most curious aspects to the life of the man that is called christ is that there are no historic records at all of his life. To state "really,do we actully know what happened just yesterday ?" is mere sophistry, and far below what you are capable of.

the halo is pre-christian by at least 4 millenia, Many hindu gods, like Lakshmi, the god of money and fortune ( Hi Lakshmi, Namast ) are depicted with halos.

Uh oh. I shan't be drawn into logical argument on matters of faith. Bart. please 404 me!

Yup, mo, there's room in the pot for one more...Wanna come over for dinner? :- )

John Disney__A
(Tue Aug 25 1998 06:12 - ID#24135)
hey Salty
am I invited too ??

Can I wear ma halo ?

(Tue Aug 25 1998 06:14 - ID#280214)
Mozel - correction regarding your interpretation of Aurator's post
Aurator did NOT say that the "message of Christ" was not Christian in origin. In his 05:20 he asked "are you implying that the golden rule is christian in origin?" Note that he said "golden rule" not your "message of Christ". His position, which I agree with, is that the golden rule and democracy predate Christianity. For that matter, I must add that they predate Judaism.

Mozel, do you attribute all that Aristotle ( 384-322 B.C. ) said to Christianity?
If so - start with
and then really dig your teeth into Aristotle's "Politics"

Now you will tell us that Aristotle was a Jew.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 06:15 - ID#284255)
Interesting email - case solved?
Here is a copy of an email sent by me to Mike Echlin and his response.
Nick Laird wrote:


A number of forum members from the Kitco gold forum:

Have run the Y2k test supplied by:

So far it looks like 95%++++ have failed the RTC test.

After reading this article: Prove It test shows most PCs unlikely to pass 2K analysis

I would presume most if not all PC's suffer from non-compliant RTC's.

What percentage of these PC's with non-compliant RTC's would be expected to show time dilation characteristics.
30% - 60% - 90%????

Many of these forum members have been rudely awakened to the possiblities.

Is there any new news on the subject that I can enlighten them with?
Any easy fixes - repairs - replacement necessary?

Regards Nick

Hi Nick,

From a study on RTCs that i am doing right now, ( prepreliminary results you understand, ) of 600 models of rtc that we have so far identified. ( all based in some part on the motorola 146818 ) we have found only 15 - 20 that are fixed for rollover, and only 60 or so that are fixed for the Crouch Echlin effect ( TD ) . ( The 15 - 20 works out close to your 95% failure on the normal y2k rollover tests when other factors are taken into account. )
Have you looked at the pages at lately?
especially the new ones,>

These will answer some of your questions, as for availability of the tools, that will be worked out very soon. ( We will have to charge something for them, but it will be a very small, 1 or 2 dollar/copy. )

We are continuing, even without funding, our work researching this effect and its affects on embedded systems.

Mike Echlin, President
Yeovil Systems Research and Development Inc.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 06:18 - ID#255285)
you gotta bring Russel, Ben and Au_Producer.
Actually, now I think of it, we should have a big hui, invite all the gabby kitcoites, and those that like to lurk in the shadows to a bit of a p!ss-up. kiwi style.

Bring guitars, beer, sausages, actually, bring whatever you choose, it's gonna be a big piss-up, and noone will tell any tales in the morning!

Do you know the all blacks have not lost 5 games in a row since 1926? I think it may have repercussions for the markets if we lose this weekend.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 06:23 - ID#153102)
There are no historical records of 95% of the Americans who lived on this continent in the last century.

It is passing strange to me that people who would deny there can be a phenomena without a cause in other matters presume one in the first century spread of Christianity.

I trust you will excuse having me for dinner. That is to say, I shan't be there, thanks anyway.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 06:28 - ID#280214)
Aurator - yes, lets wrap it up
I, being on the edge of the approaching terminator,
must get some shuteye before I must open the store.
Good nite all

Mozel, Namast

P.S. I venture to say the above greeting pre-dates Christianity.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 06:33 - ID#26793)
The destiny of Hong Kong is hanging on the peg.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 06:37 - ID#153102)
South African Halo. Is that the term for the effect produced by a burning tire around the neck ?

(Tue Aug 25 1998 06:40 - ID#255285)
cause and effect : the law of the universe: the one; the unimpeachable, ineffable law of the univers
actually mo, you've hit the nail on the head with your last post, the law of cause and effect. There was a Robin of Loxley, there was Buddha ( or two ) there was a man you call christ. These men all lived in pre-history, that is, before history. Their lives have been passed down to us by oral tradition. I do not deny the lives of these men, I was merely pointing out the hole in your sophist argument concerning the knowingness/unknowingness of the past.

But, there was no first century spread of christianity apart from the spread of anarchy against Rome by several of its levantine possessions that were purloined by the revisionist histories of the 6th centuries in an attempt to fabricate a lineage of authenticity.....

404 me Bart before ( B404? ) it is too late......

(Tue Aug 25 1998 06:42 - ID#26793)
In desperation, Philippine president orders hunt for buried Marcos gold hoard.,1051,SAV-9808240148,00.html

(Tue Aug 25 1998 06:52 - ID#26793)
Vatican refuses to open archives in search for Nazi gold

(Tue Aug 25 1998 06:53 - ID#255151)
From August 25, 1998 International Herald Tribune

Scroll to second article entitled "German
Banks Worried Over Russia" with sub headline
"30 Billion and Fears of War"

(Tue Aug 25 1998 06:55 - ID#153102)
And, there I mistakenly thought it was my sophistry of the knowingness/unknowingness of current events that was being taken to task.

When what I meant to convey was that historical proofs are not needed for what is real in the present. One becomes unfit for the academic if and when the merely theoretical becomes personal.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 07:05 - ID#255285)
are you now agreeing that there is no historical proof for the life of this man you call christ?

(Tue Aug 25 1998 07:09 - ID#255285)
we may agree to differ quicker, if you would kindly advise me of the age of the earth, according to your cosmology.

I am sure you note my careful phraseology, for science, when rendered to its essence ( like a pot full of stu ) is as much belief as is the Great Week.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 07:18 - ID#255285)
forgive me for falling asleep, it is not the company, which I find most ennervating, but it is this late salty antipodean hour. I hope you have enjoyed this as much as I, and yes, you will always be welcome around the hangi.

hangi=traditional earth-oven banquet, perhaps I can expand on the social significance of food, and sharing food another time. I should like to share food with you, Mr mozel, yes, indeedy.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 07:24 - ID#255285)
who posted the link to Ganesha?

kool mythology about how come he lost his head and it was replaces with an elephant's. too tired to talk it now, must be a link aroudn there.

many thanks

Ganesha was the cause of much excitement last year, when statues all over the world started weeping milk. And then they all stopped. Charles Fort is content.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 07:25 - ID#37463)
Gold and Prayer
It seems with gold slipping another 70 cents that this forum has become a religious forum. Perhaps if we joined hands and made the correction petition we could raise the price of that carnal metal.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 07:34 - ID#37463)
Joke of the day
Sometimes we have to watch what we say on this forum or we will irritate and infuriate others; especially when we badmouth gold. The following story is illustrative of the dangers of such talk.

A man walks into a bar and says, "Bartender, give me two shots. One for
me and one for my best buddy."

Bartender says, "You want them both now or do you want me to wait until
your buddy arrives to pour his?"

The guy says, "Oh, I want them both now. I've got my best buddy in my
pocket here." He then pulls a little 3 inch man out of his pocket.

The bartender asks, "You mean to say, he can drink that much?" "Oh, sure. He can drink it all and then some," the man retorted.

So, the bartender pours the 2 shots and sure enough, the little guy
drinks it all up.

"That's amazing!" says the bartender. "What else can he do? Can he walk?"

The man flicks a quarter down to the end of the bar and says, "Hey, Rodney, go fetch that quarter." The little guy runs down to the end of the bar, picks up the quarter and runs back down and gives it to the man.

The bartender is in total shock. "That's amazing!" he says. "What else
can he do? Does he talk?"

The man looks up at the bartender with a look of surprise in his eye and
says, "Talk? Sure he talks. Hey, Rodney, tell him about that time we were in down in Africa, on safari, hunting and you called that native witch doctor an imbecile!"

(Tue Aug 25 1998 07:51 - ID#26350)
halos, Christian history, muck in the modern world,
Has anyone noticed that copper is way, way down? Any opinions on whether it is getting to the buy level? Article in the WSJ yesterday disputing amounts warehoused currently and volumes on hand projected by year end, due to the amount of mines that have closed and no scrap coming to market. I would think the same applies to silver, and will to gold when CB's stop dumping their holdings.
According to tradition ( some of which is written in the Gospels not included in the Middle Ages bible we use commonly ) Christianity was spread around the world, as far as India--by St. Thomas the Doubter, and to France by Miriam from Magdala, where her scientifically identified remains are buried, by the Disciples of Jesus, his core group of followers. That was his instruction to them before he ascended to Heaven, to multiple themselves and become fruitful on the earth. Although certainly they were still Jews at the time, not identified as "Christians," their Greek name. There are written records you can get from any library of all this, translated from ancient languages, and presumed by scholars to be true.
The life of inner spiritual wealth belongs to all people of all times who have earned it by their sincere desires to have the greatest understanding and to face the divine with hope and thankful respect. It is written also thus in the hearts of all people everywhere, the history of the spread of divine understanding and truth. From that temple comes the awareness that the people of the world should have freedom to grow and reward for their activities, their labors and their works. That is why everyone should own gold and precious metals, to insure the future of their families to be free and to have the best in life, no matter rich or poor is not so important, as to have material security.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 08:03 - ID#252391)
I have noticed on days when the price of gold falls and the tone of this site gets a little "wierd" we get upside surprises.

Based on that we should get quite a surprise though it seems that gold is tied back up with the yen and is about to go off its cliff at any time. No acocunting for the sudden lack of support - we are only down 90 cents - maybe no big deal, but silver of which the world is supposedly moving into short supply has lost 7 cents worth of believers.

Platinum is near taking out recent lows after showing some strenght yesterday.

Looking ominus

Maybe we are moving to extremns.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 08:03 - ID#289357)
lakshmi @ CU

Here's some technical analysis ( below the chart ) on October Copper futures. The current price is pretty close to production costs for conventional processes ( the last data I had on this was $0.65/lb, several years ago )

Mtn Bear (SE)
(Tue Aug 25 1998 08:12 - ID#347267)
Mr. G, your 20:52 of last evening was CLASSIC and saved as such in my KitcoCLS file.
Question: How do you reconcile the different profiles of the Moore Dow and S&P seasonal predictions? I initially noticed this but had forgotten until the same thing was raised by Fred ( Thks Fred ) .
Re market action: IMHO today will mark the start of the rally which must be sold. The slide after this rally will get everyone's attention.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 08:14 - ID#284336)
Global contagion ;the birth of the Euro
I heard on TV that the Euro will be strong and will become reserve no.2 .I also notice that it is quoted @ 1.12 to the U$. As of this moment Japan is not in the race.57% of the world is 'U$ denominated'. @ 1-1-99 the Euro will most probably be quoted @ par to the U$. I like to post some questions to all.

1. If gold is not a consideration, how can the Euro be strong? Why should I be interested to make the switch from $ to Euro?
2. If it is weak, the 11 countries will start to fall apart due to historical, cultural and other factors. Will not this global contagion now going on becoming worse? What are the chance for world domination for gold and the $?
3. If gold is consigned to the dustbin, will there be a world government?
4. If it is a success, what are the chains of events that will occur?
5. As a Singaporean, what must I do as the $ fights for its survival?
6. In the event that the world is divided into blocks, what are they? Will the problems be surmountable?

We stand at the threshold of change, a New World order. Understanding it does not guarantee your survival. It only gives you a fighting chance.
The currency war is in full swing. In 4 months times, we witness the birth of the Euro. We watch the situation together, yes?

(Tue Aug 25 1998 08:21 - ID#286230)
The Prez

(Tue Aug 25 1998 08:27 - ID#426220)

One of the most critically acclaimed precious metals stock analysts virtually disappeared from cyber-space about a year ago. It was the inimitable Canadian analyst Claude Cormier, also known as the "goldbug." Well, we are very much pleased to announce, HE'S BACK! And he believes Precious Metal Stocks are about to take off!

For those who may not know the goldbug, his detailed and insightful analysis of little known precious metals companies were always par excellence. In years past he has selected some real winners -- especially silver mining stocks.

Although he has been bearish for some time, he now believes gold stocks are on their launching pads.

"The truth is that gold is in a bull market in many world currencies. The
truth is that the US$ is now overvalued in terms of many of these
currencies including the Canadian and Australian dollars. The truth is
that gold is cheap, extremely cheap in $US terms. This imbalance will be
corrected. Be ready, this day is coming and will give birth to the biggest bull market in precious metals of all times."

Golbug shares his FIRST PICK with us -- perennially one of his favorites.
His selection and reasons may be seen at the following URL -- as usual it's necessary to delete the extra letters "en" in the word "golden" of the URL before posting it to the Internet:

(Tue Aug 25 1998 08:47 - ID#289357)
Mtn Bear (SE)

Do you think the coming slide will take the mining stocks down as well? Jeil's models indicate just that effect. I read somewhere that the underperformers before a crash get hurt worse than some of the high flyers, because there just aren't any buyers.

I'm thinking about selling half my mining stocks and buying back in when the dust clears. Everything else ( 65% ) is either in cash or physical metals.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 08:54 - ID#432298)
Regarding your posting of "the "GOLDBUG" is back" I am unable go to the url specified. Keep getting message that file is not found or is outdated. I even removed the "en" in golden.

John Disney__A
(Tue Aug 25 1998 08:56 - ID#24135)
Dinner Party ..
for salty .. after dinner ..
will you arrange for some of those Maori warriors
to amuse us with those funny All Black folk
songs the players sing and dance before each game.
Those maoris must be real fans ..

ps impossible for all blacks to lose again
pps ill bring burning tires for that RSA

(Tue Aug 25 1998 08:57 - ID#258427)
Put underscores where the blanks show on the works..


Mike Sheller
(Tue Aug 25 1998 09:09 - ID#347447)
re your 4:16 - I realize words have their particular power, so it appears you have interpreted my use of the word "regeneration" re Russia to mean something "religious" or "spiritual" ( ? ) Actually, I was referring to a generic regeneration such as merely promotes an acceptably civil, orderly, and integrated society. The Russians are a ruined people. They have been ruined by their brand of long-standing collectivism. Like the Israelites who had to wander for 40 years in the wilderness, so that the generations with a slave mentality could pass away, and a new generation raised on Torah could emerge, so the Russians must purge themselves of their past . It is pure metaphysics.

And speaking of metaphysics, I do agree with you that there need have been no record or historical "reality" to an event in the past for its import to be valid in the present. All the scientific minds at Kitco are bristling at me now, I'm sure, but the reality of Christ is in the voice of the Gospels. The Word either does it to you, or it don't.

There is absolutely no way anyone can truly understand what the message of these documents ( including the many that were destroyed and those recently found at Nag Hammadi ) actually is without a knowledge of the metaphysical systems behind Kabala and Gnosticism. There is a universal message about our origins and our destiny, and our spiritual obligations, that has been masked and perverted by the doctrine of the "vicarious atonement" and the misinterpretation of Saint Paul, who was himself a Kabalist. Hebrews contains some of the deepest and darkest secrets of the Christian mythos. Until one understands the "Order of Melchizedek," one cannot understand exactly Who and What Jesus was. Yet on ANY level, He works his uplifting magic on all, to the measure of their faith and awareness. We can only be held accountable, in any single life, to what we know and believe...and what we DO in light of it.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 09:15 - ID#258427)
Where's Gollum..??
The Plane is down $1.50...Need some flying lessons.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 09:23 - ID#317193)
BillD...the wings are already off the gold plane...a rocket is being built to replace...
the burned out hulk found on the runway. Just need some more fuel...paper money looks good. PMSP


(Tue Aug 25 1998 09:23 - ID#26793)
London morning gold news and comment.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 09:25 - ID#328159)
Hindu gods drinking milk... Ganesh...

(Tue Aug 25 1998 09:25 - ID#35571)
@Mtn Bear (SE)
The charts from MRCI were made by correlating all past years for which there was data to the current data for the past few months, selecting those years which had the highest correlation, averageing all the selected years, and then plotting the current data against the averaged data.

The DOW result, the S&P500 result, and the NYSE composite result all show essentially the same pattern with some difference in magnitude and timing. Namely, an early September rally, bad things happening after the rally, and a subsequent pre Christmas rally.

The DOW chart is obviously a bear market scenario, but the other two aren't. The DOW chart shows a post Semptember rally dead cat bounce and subsequent collapse until late in the year. The others show a very optimistic bull rally after the September slump.

The DOW chart is similar to events in '29 and '87 except that in '29 the banking system collapsed before the Christmas rally and the great bear market of '30 accompanied the clide into the depression. In '87 everything held and the dipsters did well.

The charts tend to do pretty well for a short distance ahead, but inasmuch as the past never repeats exactly they should be used mainly as a way of comparing current sentiments and market movements to what has happened under similar circumstance in times gone by. Much the same viewpoint as Elliot wave theory except in a different light.

Another thing that should be pointed out is that the DOW consists mainly of blue chip stocks whereas the other two are broader. Many times the DOW will move down as people cash out of a defensive posture even as they are buying into the smaller issues ( precursor to a bull ) , other times may go the opposite or move the same depending on the stage of the market and the sentiments of the players.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 09:31 - ID#35571)
DOW +55
Todays flight should be somewhat more optimistic in scope as the market takes a deep breath and prepares to plunge into the labor day rally.

Funds previously in a defensive posture will be raising cash so beware holders of gold, and other save-your-money-because-the-world-is-coming-to-and-end type of holdings.

On the other hand, the world really si coming to an end after this September last fling and the PM's will be turning up when the bear starts to show it's really BIG teeth.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 09:35 - ID#368244)
@ Kitco Xperts

A little knowledge is a dangerous thing.

When the dark hour comes, who you gonna call.

Faith can never be reasoned , either you got it , or you don't.

Master the markets before you move to religion, they are much simpler.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 09:39 - ID#35571)
DOW +104
My, my, my, here come the day traders. I presume many of them will close out late this afternoon. Inverted Friday.

Monkee Person
(Tue Aug 25 1998 09:40 - ID#288105)
Stick around. All your questions will be answered here, eventually.

Gianni Dioro__A
(Tue Aug 25 1998 09:43 - ID#384350)
Offenses against the State - like the right of assembly
I met a nice couple from Galway a couple of days ago. I asked about the new police state laws. They said, "They were talking about legalising "internment", but I don't know what "internment" means."

A number of new offences are to be created under the Offences Against the State Act, among them directing an unlawful organisation, the unlawful gathering of information, possession of items for purposes connected with specified firearms or explosives offences, withholding information concerning offences under the Act or a scheduled offence. Individuals can also be convicted for training persons in the making and use of firearms or explosives.

Gianni Dioro__A
(Tue Aug 25 1998 09:46 - ID#384350)
Wave count on Dow
We could be looking at the beginning of wave 3 of 3 down. I don't think people are going to want to be in this market over the long weekend.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 09:47 - ID#374235)
Blinder in NY Times - What to worry about.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 09:51 - ID#35571)
@Aragorn III
Now only four.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 09:55 - ID#374235)
MSnbc - Y2K Feature

(Tue Aug 25 1998 10:02 - ID#35571)
DOW +74
The morning day trader rush is about over. Things will steady a bit. I've got some things to do, so I'm going to set this thing on autopilot and leave it up to you guys to keep an eye on things.

The day traders will be checking out later today, but don't worry. One of the hardest things to do is sit patiently in cash and the market now WANTS to go up. Despite the world falling apart it WILL go up.

But not for so awfully long. After all, the world really IS falling apart. The market will find that ANYONE can overcome gravity and fly...
Until they hit the ground.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 10:05 - ID#288186)
Gollum; Boy...Your last paragraph really hits "home"!....and the ground.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 10:10 - ID#215235)
POG & XAU Dropping
Could this be the final wash out before the gold bull rears its horns?

EZ Believer__A
(Tue Aug 25 1998 10:12 - ID#173262)
Gollum, 8/24 20:52, Accurate and Eloquent

(Tue Aug 25 1998 10:14 - ID#288186)
Dutchman; I think it's possible that this is the final washout. The big problem
I have, is how low will they push it before a big reversal. I sure
would like to catch the Gold market at or near its lows!!!

(Tue Aug 25 1998 10:18 - ID#246224)
Does anyone have spot for silver?

(Tue Aug 25 1998 10:21 - ID#215235)
From all the information I have gathered, the wash out may continue for a while, especially in gold mining shares. I, too, want to buy more shares as close to the bottom as I can get. I like ECO and it dropped to 1 11/16 with a HUGE sale this morning. It is now back to 1 3/4. I am hoping to buy more around 1 1/2. When the turnaround begins, I think it may be a quick shot up. What's your read?

(Tue Aug 25 1998 10:24 - ID#147201)
Mozel re question
How about emailing me, I have a question that may be a little over band width right now. Thanx, Charlie

The Hatt
(Tue Aug 25 1998 10:24 - ID#364255)
Tight Control On Gold Tells Me The Crisis Is Worse Than Expected!!!!!
We are right in the middle of a worldwide currency crisis and the fact that Gold is being controlled tells me that the problems are far worse than any of us can imagine. The press have been utilized to do damage control as they continue to tell the World that everything is alright. In fact they have in some cases gone over the line and become spin artists... The Politicians in North America are ignoring the SEVERE STRUCTURAL PROBLEMS in Asia and now quickly spreading into Latin America.Russia is BANKRUPT PERIOD and the sooner the facts are put on the table the better... The President is finished and there is little doubt that when some of the stories regarding his escapades with Monica begin to surface his party will push for his resignation...
So as we watch this ponzi game unwind keep in mind the action we are seeing is based on total fear of truth..... Greenspan and Rubin are trapped in their own spin and it is so deep they cannot even resign...

(Tue Aug 25 1998 10:25 - ID#258427)
Allen...according to Kitco Frames
spot silver 5.02 down 12 cents...

(Tue Aug 25 1998 10:29 - ID#35571)
Gollum's crystal ball
One last thing before I go. I thought it would be a gesture on my part to reveal a little of the veiled future. Let me shake my crystal ball and let the little white flakes settle.

This market WANTS to go up. The fund managers and other players have been sitting defensively with built up cash for some time now. They are growing impatient. Each is afraid to miss the "coming market turn when the bull returns". They will discount Armageddon itself, if they think the market will turn.

So the labor day rally will begin. This rally is like a forced smile, there will be no real sincerity behind it and it will not last.

Meanwhile, as various players pull cash from their defensive strongholds, the precious metals will decline.

The real world is still out there with people throwing bombs and cruise missles around in parts of the world that have a great love for gold and silver as a hedge against calamity as well as a sign of wealth. With prices down, it will only accentuate the demand. A great buying of physical will arise from India and other places.

COMEX and London stocks are already low.

The wave of demand will hit as the labor day rally begins to falter.

What we have here is the last great buying opportunities of this decade.

The flakes have all settled to the bottom of my little crystal ball, so It's time for me to go.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 10:32 - ID#317193)
Gold...bottom...look at the price...under $282 spot...
I suppose you could wait for $270...if it ever shows...but only if your investment perspective is very short term. Physical at this price is fine with me. I can see past 1998.


(Tue Aug 25 1998 10:36 - ID#147201)
The Hatt your 10:24
This was an excellent deduction that has hit at the hidden truth. Greenie and RR are trapped. Nobody else wants to be in their situation. I think you have "squeeked" out the major clue in this world situation that , if looked at properly, will show the way. You cannot in any way be faulted for lack of definition because of the spinners, but you have raised the FLAG. Many thanx, Charlie

(Tue Aug 25 1998 10:37 - ID#280339)
Goldman Sachs IPO
The Wallstreet Journal has an article about the Goldman Sachs IPO today. It says the IPO isn't expected until November. Rubin and the PPT have an impossible task IMHO. It should be fun to watch them try.

Got Gold!!

(Tue Aug 25 1998 10:52 - ID#286230)
Hillary to the UN????
Quick more ammo, more tuna--watch for blue hats and black helicopters. She isn't satisfied with the US its the World she wants!!!!

(Tue Aug 25 1998 10:53 - ID#432298)
Why is it that...........
whenever currencies abroad falter relative to our currency, spot gold goes down. Gold is held down because of the Yen's decline relative to the dollar. Then the focus shifts to the Ruble because now it goes down relative to our currency. But wait, now the Yen is going up or at least stabilizing and do you see Gold going back up? Why not? Is it only the negative news we focus on? What about all the gold that Poland purchased? Oops, that's good news and we shouldn't focus on that. I can go on and on. Bottom line, it appears that NO NEWS IS GOOD NEWS when it comes to gold.

John Disney__A
(Tue Aug 25 1998 11:06 - ID#24135)
Looks like ..
to all..
Gleen may have made an excellent
short term call.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 11:08 - ID#260389)
Gollum, I sure hope you are right with your crystal ball. On the other hand if I had a dollar for every prediction of an imminent rise in the price of gold I have read on Kitco for the last year I could retire to the Virgin Islands and live a life luxury. Every piece of news, good or bad, drives the price of gold down. I sure would like to see the news that turns it back up.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 11:11 - ID#317193)
From Yahoo...not so yahoo....
LTCB's notional derivatives over 50 trln yen--MOF
TOKYO, Aug 25 ( Reuters ) - Japanese Finance Minister Kiichi Miyazawa said on Tuesday he had heard the notional amount of derivatives transactions held by Long-Term Credit Bank of Japan ( LTCB ) ( 8303.T ) exceeded 50 trillion yen.
``From what has been reported, it is said that the notional amount of LTCB's derivatives trade is over 50 trillion ( yen ) ,'' Miyazawa told a plenary session of the Lower House of parliament.

He added that taking into account the failure of ( former British merchant bank ) Barings, which was caused by rogue transactions of derivatives trade, LTCB's amount of 50 trillion yen should be watched with caution.

``If the worst happens, and ( LTCB ) should find difficulty in paying them ( the derivatives trade ) , then there is a danger of default,'' he said.

If such a default were to happen, it would undermine Japan's credibility and could lead to a Japan-triggered global financial depression, Miyazawa added.


John Disney__A
(Tue Aug 25 1998 11:13 - ID#24135)
Woops ..
make that Glenn

(Tue Aug 25 1998 11:17 - ID#317193)
Disney...we watch the entire week...Yes?
Glenn's got it far.


(Tue Aug 25 1998 11:18 - ID#287312)
Yasser Arafat Questioned by Starr
About funny tasting cigar given to him by Clinton. ROFLMAO

(Tue Aug 25 1998 11:19 - ID#290172)
As Cherokee says, "looking backward" productivity gains? [he he]
As Cherokee says, "looking backward" productivity gains?
Q.. Why are we in the mess that you describe?

A. Richebacher. In America you have record low savings and record low industrial investment and that results in the lowest productivity gains in the world.

Q. Where do productivity gains come from?

A. Richebacher. From capital investment. From putting more capital behind every worker. America puts less and less capital behind every worker.

Q. What does all that mean to the average Joe?

A. Richebacher. They have less income in real terms than they had 20 years ago. America's the only country in the world where real wages are lower than they were 20 years ago.

Q. Most people don't notice this.

A. Richebacher. Well, of course, the American consumer borrows as never before. They don't want to reduce their living standard to adjust to their income.

Q. Some people say that we are breaking new ground with easy credit and that we have a new kind of service economy with computerization's and the information age and that we have a booming underground economy. What say you?

A. Richebacher. Nonsense! The younger generation is poorer than the older generation. Wealth creation in America is near zero. But there is a huge pseudo-wealth creation through debt creation on the part of government and consumers and with businesses merging and buying each other. All this is debt creation without asset creation. To some extent the wealth of America now comes from the debt of others. The extent of your credit and consumption binge is truly unprecedented.

COMMENT: Nonetheless, everything--Anything--will be done to hold 'things'
as 'stable' as possible until January. Taint going to be easy, but they
are certainly going to try. Gold--bias down; dollar--bias up; market--
wherever it needs to be to accomplish the prima goals...

(Tue Aug 25 1998 11:20 - ID#254269)
Selby.................. re Hilla......................scary at the UN
Yeah, I heard that yesterday, couldn't believe the gall of the woman. Maybe they need her as a janitor ?

(Tue Aug 25 1998 11:22 - ID#174239)
T.Young: Timing the Bottom for Gold
From what I have seen, RJ is the best prognositicator around here. There may be others as good or better, but I am not aware of them. Right now it looks like gold is still drifting down. My understanding of market timing theory is that it is better to buy near the bottom as the price is increasing rather than as the price is dropping. If you buy as it is dropping it may drop further yet. It may also hit the doldrums and stay at that level for years. If you buy on the upswing it may have been a false alarm, but odds are better that it will continue up. This also leaves free the money that would have been spent waiting thrugh the bottom on other, hopefully more productive, investments.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 11:25 - ID#368244)
Show Time

Come on gold shorts , take gold down to 250 I dare you. Break these dumb mines that have no interest in share holders whatever. Let's quit playing games, can't you get it below 278? What happens when you get it so low everyone wants some. I am prepared to hold a lifetime , and buy more at 275, 250, 225 and so on. Be very, very careful shorts, you are treading in dangerous waters.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 11:26 - ID#317193)
J...I agree unless you need time to get the physical in your hands...then you best
buy before time runs out. On shares of mining stocks always wait except for your hedge position.


(Tue Aug 25 1998 11:27 - ID#298380)
Gollum's Fantasy flight
Looks like todays flight has been delayed.
I think he found out that his flight computer
is not Y2K compliant.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 11:27 - ID#431200)
My job is to get foreigners to invest in Russia,"
"Yet every time there is a small voice at the back of my head that wants me to say, 'Don't do it. Get out of Russia. It is too corrupt, too murky. Nothing is as it seems.'"
Business - Ottawa Citizen OnlineTuesday 25 August 1998
Russia's bubble had to burst
Skeptics are usually proved right in Russia, Alan Philps writes.
Alan PhilpsThe Daily Telegraph
The Associated Press / A trader at Moscow's Interbank Currency Exchange puts his hand to his head yesterday as the beleaguered ruble falls to 7.14 rubles to the U.S. dollar.
The head of the Moscow office of a leading Western bank once admitted to a terrible dilemma. "My job is to get foreigners to invest in Russia," he said. "Yet every time there is a small voice at the back of my head that wants me to say, 'Don't do it. Get out of Russia. It is too corrupt, too murky. Nothing is as it seems.'"
This prophet of doom did not last long in his job, squeezed out by less cautious men. For a time last year, he seemed to be out of touch. The Russian stock market was the best performing in the world; investors flocked to put money in Russian government bonds.
From the Arctic wastes to the southern reaches of the Volga, pin-striped types were scouring the landscape to find companies for foreigners to invest in.
The bubble burst last October when investors, burned by the Asia crisis, took a hard look at the Russian economy and decided that Boris Yeltsin's boom was built on sand.
Coming to Moscow, you could easily get the impression that Russia had turned the corner: bright lights, big cars and themed restaurants. But the financial boom in the capital has sucked the rest of the country dry.
The bewildered Russian government could claim to have been let down by the West. The reformers did what the Washington-based International Monetary Fund required: They reined in inflation by tight control of the money supply. A reliable currency was supposed to be the bedrock on which a thriving, entrepreneurial culture would take shape. But it never happened.
There are several reasons for this. The government could never raise enough tax revenues to pay for its bloated bureaucracy and all its teachers, doctors, soldiers and pensioners. Faced with the need to raise revenue, the state adopted a Bolshevik approach: expropriating every penny of profit -- and often more -- from the struggling small-business sector, which should have been the future of the economy. Entrepreneurial spirit was driven underground.
Meanwhile, the big companies with political clout -- the gas monopoly Gazprom, major oil companies and big industrial groups -- were allowed to get away with not paying their taxes. Survival depended on being close to the Kremlin.
This leaky vessel was kept afloat by injections of foreign cash, from the IMF, which plugged a hole in the budget deficit, and from local and foreign banks that bought Russian government debt at sky-high interest rates.
When the long-awaited economic upswing failed to come and confidence waned, the "hot money" left Russia for safer havens.
Some economists blame the IMF for being too soft on Russia, for handing out credits without making sure the Russians met their half of the bargain. But Russia has proved to be no ordinary country. The spectre of chaos in a nuclear-armed Russia -- artfully orchestrated by the Kremlin -- has ensured that Mr Yeltsin's begging bowl is kept topped up.
The more Western economists have looked at Russia, the more they realize it is Absurdistan, configured in a way that defies logic. Under the communists, there was no concept of price. Cotton grown in Uzbekistan was sent by rail for processing in Estonia, then to central Russia to be made into garments. This might have kept the different parts of the Soviet Union yoked, but it makes no economic sense.
In their wisdom the commissar sited pulp mills among the wrong sorts of forest, requiring raw material to be shipped from hundreds of kilometres away. With the end of railway subsidies, all these industries became uneconomic.
Russia is a rich country, full of oil, gas and raw materials, and with a highly educated population. It must one day find a way to organize itself efficiently. But that day has not come. The ageing Mr. Yeltsin, untutored in any art except that of staying in power, has not proved to be the man to lead his country to the promised land.
Indeed, as some of the Western bankers pack their suitcases and go home, there is a view that it will take a generation at least to throw off the Soviet legacy. That is not a timescale that appeals to Western investors.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 11:31 - ID#434158)
@Gazebo, Gold always down
You suggested that whenever other currencies tank, gold tanks as well: maybe this is a problem of perspective. Could it be suggested that what really happens is the dollar goes UP? With one currency after another coming under attack, the dollar has become the international haven for investors: as it goes up against other currencies and against gold, it appears to us in the US that gold is dropping: in actuality, the dollar is rising, and carrying with it the relative high value of dollar-denominated stocks. If this is correct, then the international corporations which earn a significant portion of their income in other currencies may be hard-hit: unless, of course, their vulnerability to the exchange rate is offset by their overseas production plants, in which costs are denominated in cheaper currencies.
Lower profits and international unrest may reduce stock prices here somewhat, but I can't see panic developing until the dollar loses its status as the last international financial refuge. I suspect a large part of the dollar's status is the US reputation for the supremacy of the rule of law, and the protection that provides to businesses and investors ( as opposed to Russia, Malaysia, or any number of other places. ) This reputation is becoming strained by the antics of the current administration. Clinton may cost us more than we can imagine if we fail to hold him and his cronies responsible under the law for their actions.

John Disney__A
(Tue Aug 25 1998 11:34 - ID#24135)
You dont know the way I work ..
TYoung ..
I figured if I said something nice ..
that would make his forecast come unstuck.

Cage Rattler
(Tue Aug 25 1998 11:40 - ID#33184)
What about this solution to the Russian crisis !?!
What about Russia selling part of Siberia for a couple of trillion dollars just like the Americans bought Alaska a few hundred years ago. This would wipe out out all debt, etc. and create many opportunities for development, etc.

I'm sure this will get torn to bits!

(Tue Aug 25 1998 11:42 - ID#290172)
The Hatt--yr 10:24
Yes, and yes and yes! {:- ) )

(Tue Aug 25 1998 11:42 - ID#253153)
A close on the CRB below 200 today will accelerate deflation
On my long term CRB chart , a close below 200 will precipate the beginning of a credit collapse. Why ? Farmers , base metal miners, oil drillers, etc, won't be able to break even on their production and may default or just go out of business. Banks will be stuck with huge loans and may curtail lending all together. The 200 CRB level is critical because it's the long term support trend line dating back 20 years.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 11:44 - ID#317193)
Disney...I'll do the on my knees thing:)

(Tue Aug 25 1998 11:46 - ID#290172)
Cage Rattler, your 11:40--here is an interesting read...

The Ruble Problem: A Competitive Solution
Annelise Anderson, Senior Research Fellow The Hoover Institution

(Tue Aug 25 1998 11:52 - ID#35571)
Sorry Charlie, not much spare time today. The flight computer is working fine. Read my earlier posts and you'll see we're mostly on autopilot today.

The Hatt
(Tue Aug 25 1998 12:00 - ID#364255)

(Tue Aug 25 1998 12:18 - ID#373284)
yikes...squeak...go gold...this shoulder needs to be replaced...the guys fixing the roof
have beer...they are in good spirits...just wanted to drop in and say Hi! to some of my most favorite people on the safe out there and if you see a fella wearing a sling on his right shoulder, pity him a beer, but pity him...ouch...

Charles Keeling
(Tue Aug 25 1998 12:23 - ID#344225)
@ The Hatt RE: Market Intervention
Bill Clinton ran for office with a campaign slogan: "It's the economy stupid".

We got to see AG squeezed in between Hillary and Tipper at his first
State Of The Union speech. It was obvious that his seating arrangement
was meant to send a signal. AG was signing on to market manipulation as
a way of "seeing to it" that the stock market was going to go in one
direction: UP.

WJC packed the Federal Reserve with his people. He could easily have
dumped AG, but why should he if AG would agree to "going along" with
market manipulation.

RR became the key person for WJC who would guarantee that this new
Paradigm would be effective. The plan was for the Fed to intervene any time that the overnight markets looked the least bit shaky. The plan: Buy S&P 500 futures before market open whenever the futures showed serious weakness.

The other leg of the plan was to make certain that investors would have only STOCKS & US Treasuries in which to invest. To do this, Gold had to be seen as an unwise investment vehicle in order to bloc the normal flight to quality route.

The direct sale of Gold by Central Banks would be too obvious, and this type of manipulation would be "saved" for emergency use only. Central Banks couldn't be blamed if Miners swallowed a "poison pill" known as the GOLD CARRY TRADE. Unusually low lease rates were adopted, and the Miners
accommodated the C B's by jumping onto this GOLDEN opportunity. The
C B's allowed the miners themselves to become the villain by allowing them to lease Gold at bargain basement prices which was then sold at market. The C B's made profit as the Gold left the vaults and was sold on the open market. This practice became widely accepted by C B's throughout the world.

Profits made by leasing Gold provided a source of income for C B's on a
commodity that was otherwise a dormant asset which only generated additional expenses. The C B's grew used to this stream of revenue.

It took several years before the YEN CARRY TRADE brought Japan into
recession. In the interim, their economy flourished as never before. This lesson was not lost on the Politicians who put the new Paradigm into effect. These Politicians were looking ahead only to the year 2000 elections. After all, the end justifies the means, and who cares what happens after you have met your short term political goal. I believe that ANYONE can now see that our President, WJC, is not a person who is bothered by ethics or morals.

C B's throughout the world cooperated with this new Paradigm by talking
Gold down. Rumors were spread. Planned sales were leaked to the press.
A well orchestrated PR campaign was launched and coordinated by the Worlds C B's.

With a 5 trillions dollar US debt ( some say 15 trillion ) and a world economy that was shaky, flight money poured into the US equity market. Those who were concerned about US debt and the US economy went into treasuries. Gold stocks, which would normally be the recipient of a good portion of this flight capital, were ignored.

The factor that bothers me most is that AG went along with this "Market
Intervention Plan". I think that the "New Paradigm" is illegal, and that miners have a right to sue to recoup loses.

Market intervention continues today, and this illegal activity has now spread to other countries. It is my contention that FREE MARKETS should not be manipulated by governments for political purposes and that this manipulation will end with devastating results for those who are now profiting from US Equities and US Treasuries.

When will it end? Most likely with the removal from office of this very
corrupt regime now in Washington D. C. Failing that, the Y2K problem
will take care of everything, and the world can start over from scratch.

Water will find it's level.

All, of course, IMHO.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 12:24 - ID#229207)
Gollum's Gold
- In the next few months Latin American and European currencies fall
- Last country standing is the keeper of the world's reserve currency, US dollars
- Finally, the world has faith only in US dollars
- In the next six months the US stock market collapses precipitating a debt crisis
- The US dollar, the world's reserve currency, comes under attack
- The world loses confidence in the worlds' reserve currency
- What's left?

Coming soon to the planet you're on.

By the way, if this scenario were not possible, I guarantee you that the CBs would have dumped their gold continuously for the past 20 years. But they have not. They want insurance against this thing that now seems likely to happen. So do I. So will a lot of folks. They will buy gold and gold will rise in price. A lot. Unfortunately, gold will likely be re-monetarized and confiscated. Silver is nice to own for that reason.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 12:25 - ID#213265)
@the scene
Hatt -- A wealthy man will be 'held up' by the Feds!

(Tue Aug 25 1998 12:29 - ID#290172)
A Chinese Fable--His Spear Against His Shield

A man of the state of Chu had a spear and a shield for sale. He was loud in praises of his shield.

"My shield is so strong that nothing can pierce it through."

He also sang praises of his spear.

"My spear is so strong that it can pierce through anything."

"What would happen," he was asked, "if your spear is used to pierce your shield?"

It is impossible for an impenetrable shield to coexist with a spear that finds nothing impenetrable.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 12:29 - ID#286230)
Royal Oak not out of Woods yet.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 12:30 - ID#267255)
Hurricane Bonnie Reports anyone????
Hurricane Bonnie is now located 330 miles SE of Cape Hatteras, NC and moving in a NNW direction. Top sustained winds of 115 mph with gusts to 140 mph. Expected landfall ....... Cape Lookout, NC ( HERE right on top of ME ) . This storm is roughly the size of Texas!!!

I have lurked here daily for the last year posting only occasionally on weekends. All of you have contributed greatly to my knowledge, not only of metals and markets, but also to disaster preparedness. I hope to God that I am prepared for what is coming. In 1996 we had two hurricanes, Bertha and Fran, pay us a visit. Those storms were about half the size of this one, and literally shut down this part of our State for a week or so.

Since then, through my own experience, as well as the Y2K discussions here, I hope that my family and I will not suffer as we did then. The generator is ready ( last time we were without power for more than a week ) , we have ample non-perishables as well as water, and, enough cash for an extended period, if necessary.

IF this thing hits here as predicted, it might very well offer a mini microcasm of what we might expect in 2000. If any of you have any interest, I will attempt to post our experiences during this survival effort. A simple posted response from any of you, expressing your interest, will indicate to me your level of interest. If you have an interest, I will make make an effort.

And, BTW, got Gold, got Grub, got Guns,? YUP!


(Tue Aug 25 1998 12:31 - ID#153102)
I have outmoded notions of whence cometh the strength of nations.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 12:36 - ID#213265)
@the scene
Duke -- I, for one, would like to be kept informed the best you can manage. I wouldn't expect phone service/internet to hold up though.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 12:39 - ID#289357)

Take care Duke - having lived thru one of these ( Hugo ) about 10 years ago, I can attest that it is scary as hell - and it looked like a war zone around here ( Charlotte ) for 2 or 3 months afterward.

Don't fool around - get outtathere.

This site may be very busy the next couple of days, but it has some of the best coverage I've seen on the hurricane track and wind pattern:

(Tue Aug 25 1998 12:39 - ID#317193)
Gotta Go...let me know if the BIS buys gold today.......

(Tue Aug 25 1998 12:41 - ID#373284)
shattering racist beliefs, busted shoulder and all...we MUST not allow hate to rule the day...
who would any of us be that we might allow hate to ruin a heart...let us surf the creston the wave of understanding...has not the world witnessed enough horror...why not culminate all that we know is good and healing and offer it to everyone...this then is what we can, we mustbefor each wrong and hateful thought I hope that I live an extra year to heal any I may have caused discomforta soul aint just something stuck to the bottom of a shoe

(Tue Aug 25 1998 12:42 - ID#213265)
@the scene
Duke -- Expectations are for storm surge of 9-11 ft above normal tide. Better pull your pant legs up!

(Tue Aug 25 1998 12:46 - ID#212197)
Hypathia from Alexandria
Hypathia was the president of the University of Alexandria. She was widely respected and honored in the entire world of the ancient Mediteranian See.
Deeply rooted in pagan culture and philosophy, she was one of the greatest obstacles for the new ideological empire, the Second Rome, with its center Byzanz/Konstantinopel, eager to gain acceptance.
In the year 415 a group of fanatic Christians, lead by the bishop ( or was it the patriarch ? ) of Alexandria killed her by cutting her body into parts and simultaneously burning down the Library of Alexandria, which represented the greatest collection of "Heathen" philosophies and sciences of its time.

I truly believe that murders like this one have an influence over thousands of years. The idiotic American feminist movement ( which has for sure a very important reason of imbalance in the souls of Americans and their European parents ) might never have been necessary without this brute murder to happen.

Explicitely, the reason for this hateful murder was not just the elimination of an obstacle for the spreading of the Christian religion ( those communists later in the Third Rome learned a lot of methodology from the ways of the Second Rome! ) , it was also the male-chauvenistic tendency of this new sect, which had already established itself as the official state religion in the Byzantine Emipre. How could a woman dare to be a widely honored mathematician and philosopher?

This murder was the birth of the witch hunt of the dark ages. That's the Christianity I've got to learn about, before and after I left the Catholic Church.

But probably the true reason why I started to distance myself from Christianity is that I think I felt mythologically drawn towards the image of gods and goddesses. Especially the image of goddesses I missed in these judaeo-christian religions, which invented the hostility towards erotic and sexual beauties and the devine essence of it.

Is porno thinkable in our culture without the centuries long christian hositility towards sexuality? What are the psychological implications and contributions of this christian background to this idiotic affair between Monica and William? The sexual liberation ideology ( which drives people just from one madness into another ) would have never had any chance in any one of the great heathern cultures.

Thank you for reading my lines and having the tolerance to permit it at this site. I don't want to pretend to be able to build an intellectual bridge from the murder of a great woman out of religious fanatism to gold.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 12:47 - ID#147201)
Hey T, just realized you got bumped on the shoulder buddy. Sorry! I've had a few lately, but not that bad. Keep that tequila handy- I know you'll make it, Charlie

(Tue Aug 25 1998 12:49 - ID#28861)
Gold/silver down on options trade

(Tue Aug 25 1998 12:50 - ID#213265)
@the scene
Alberich -- I always got a kick out of the ancients carving an image and then worshipping it.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 12:52 - ID#267255)
Thanks for the site. I've been watching it! NOAA is more of what I pay attention to down here. Their forecast to mariners is generally dead on. They have forecast seas 25 to 35 ( ft from mean low water ) . I have to stay. Have elderly family ( in-laws ) as well as boats, etc to watch.

Thanks for the advice, I'll post as I am able.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 12:54 - ID#373284)
chas, Namaste' and several gulps to ya...just knowing I am a portion of your thoughts
is tonic which allows for the finest healing...thanks...means a great deal to me...a great deal...I feel better already...

(Tue Aug 25 1998 12:56 - ID#242325)
What is especially disturbing about recent trends in the gold market is that short selling has apparently jumped ( as reflectred by rising open interest ) , but the one month lease rate remains absurdly low. Obviously a lot of gold is being offered up for lease. Unless the dollar drops sharply, new lows look quite likely in the near future.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 12:57 - ID#147201)
Duke re Bonnie
I'm in Morganton and hugo got us pretty bad. Any comments at your convenience. Glad you got ready and hope things don't get as bad as they can- good luck, Charlie

(Tue Aug 25 1998 12:58 - ID#267255)
ElDorado @ the scene
Thanks for the pant legs have been up before and will be again, I'm sure. I truly hope that the surge only reaches 9-11 above normal. I'm expecting more like 20 above normal if the eye passes west of me. That will put me in the NE quadrant of the thing where both wind and water will be the worst. I hope it stays to the east.

Thanks for your comments.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 13:01 - ID#426220)

James Turk is one of the world's most respected precious metals analyst.
He is quite well PERSONALLY known by sopgisticated investors who
Travel the Gold & silver conferences in North-America.

Mr. Turk is founder and editor of the investment newsletter "Freemarket
GOLD & MONEY Report. We have convinced him to share some of his
Gold investment ideas with us.

You may read his insightful "19 Reasons Gold Has Probably Bottomed"
At the following URL - - it's necessary to delete letters "en" in word
"golden" before posting to the Internet:

(Tue Aug 25 1998 13:04 - ID#267255)
chas (re: hurricane up-dates)
Appreciate your thoughts. Living a little away from the coast has certain advantages, doesn't it? I'll stay in touch.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 13:05 - ID#147201)
Great, great, great and a big chug to ya

(Tue Aug 25 1998 13:06 - ID#284255)
Love to hear your posts.
I have sailed through 2 cyclones/hurricanes here in OZ and seen a few from the land.

Buy Ballots law states that if you face the wind, the eye is 120 off to you port/left side.
This works well with cyclones rotating clockwise.

It is a good way when you are close to the eye to judge where it is traveling in relation to your position when communications are down.

The quicker the wind veers the closer you are to the eye.
With a clockwise rotating eye you have to avoid the NE quadrant of the eye. Opposite for an anti-clockwise rotating one.

Keep the windows on the leeward side of your house open a tad - cause of the barometric pressures. Your house can explode like a box if totally sealed.

Also watch out for when the eye goes over the top of you.
This catches many out - spectators. Best to stay inside.
The rapidity with which the wind reverses when you come out the other side is awesome.

Fill your baths with water, turn off the gas and electricity.
Have torch, radio, and plenty of canned foods.

Plus have a few books.

If your boats get into trouble leave them alone.
You cannot play with the force of the sea.
You should have them up a creek already.

Good luck

(Tue Aug 25 1998 13:06 - ID#373284)
Duke, Namaste' and a gulp of Patron tequila to Mumm and I have just lit a
candle for you and yours...hurricanes are nothing to mess with...God's speed and blessings to ya...

(Tue Aug 25 1998 13:07 - ID#213265)
@the scene
Duke -- What kind of distance and elevation are you from the water, and is there any particular greenery at your location that'll keep erosion to a minimum. How about development in front of and behind you that might also direct water flow.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 13:10 - ID#57232)
Sudan Recalls diplomatic staff from US
All: I sure hope we have fairly convincing evidence that the pharmceuticals company we blew up had illicit weapons material production of some kind. WJC is very cognizant of US public opinion -- but what about the rest of the world. Shades of 'Wag the Dog'? Now we hear that bin Laden has tried to assassinate President Clinton in the past -- why did we not hear about this until today?

(Tue Aug 25 1998 13:11 - ID#373284)
to the fin that shares, Namaste' and gulp to ya from the Island that is Long...
send me an email I have some stuff to send ya and my previous attempts, well, they did not work...aghhhhhhhh....

(Tue Aug 25 1998 13:13 - ID#173148)
There is some essence of a comon denominator I think that we both share. I suspect that PTSS greatly influences within me ( wrongly ) a fear of impending dread - a dread of being helplessly annihilated. This condition is largely neurotic but nevertheless causes me to endlessly search for defenses that will alleviate this deep concern and give me protection. The ultimate defense, rationale or not, seems to lie in being a goldbug.

I see similar foreboding in your recent response to my questions:

Max - Are you suggesting that this could reverse tomorrow or next week or next month?

Farfel - Yes, on the spin of a dime. I believe in an existential world...namely, just because today was almost an identical replicant of yesterday does NOT mean tomorrow will bear any resemblance to today whatsoever ) .

Max - What sudden event could make it possible that I wouldn't have time to buy back in?

Farfel - ( Just one existential example ( and there are many ) : imagine Treasury Secretary Rubin and Fed Chair Greenspan...suddenly GONE! The result: Sheer populist panic. Dollar plummetting. Sudden hike in interest rates to defend the Dollar. Ergo, collapsing equities and bond markets. Precious Metals immediately perceived as the ONLY flight to safety. Jammed phone lines....lengthy lines in front of brokerage front of gold outlets...all kinds of tumult ) "

Farfel, is your scenario above sound? For example consider the probability of all these events actually happening so "suddenly" that there would be no opportunity to react defensively:

1 ) What is the probability that both Rubin AND Greenspan would suddenly disappear and what would be the circumstance causing this?

2 ) Why would this cause "populist panic?" I can accept there would be an immediate strong negative reaction in financial markets, similar and short-lived as the reaction to Eisenhower's heart attack.

3 ) "Dollar plummeting and rise in interest rates?" Why would the dollar have to plummet - do you consider Rubin and Greenspan to be irreplacable saviours of some sort? I'd like to believe that the POG would spike up somewhat, but given its past response to crisis events in the past year, an immediate stratospheric jump is illogical.

Again I ask, shouldn't we try to check our fears of an immediate collapse that would prevent us from re-entering the gold market at a modest premium after a calamity ( assuming we can define a realistic one ) .

(Tue Aug 25 1998 13:14 - ID#242325)
Endless war


The death of an Italian officer in Kabul
may be the first of many Islamic extremist
reprisals against the West

By John Sweeney in Islamabad

[The Observer, 8/23/98]. The first instalment of the bill for
President Clinton's missile attacks on Afghanistan came through the
airport here yesterday wrapped in the sky-blue flag of the United

Pall bearers carried the coffin of Lieutenant Calo Carmine with as
much dignity as they could muster through the chaotic sweatbox of
Islamabad airport.

The Italian officer had been shot in the Afghan capital Kabul, and
died of his wounds. This was the first reprisal for the US cruise
missile attacks on 'terrorist' bases inside Afghanistan.

There will be more reprisals, and more homecomings in body bags as key
ally to Osama bin Laden, the exiled Saudi multimillionaire and
the West's Public Enemy Number One, declared yesterday: "The Americans
have started a war that will never end."

What sounded horribly like the opening salvos of a new and pitiless
conflict rang out from the messianic figure of the Grand Emir Gullana
Fazal-ul Rehman Kahalil. A terrorist leader close to bin Laden. His
head swathed in a large turban of the deepest black, the thickly
bearded Emir spat hatred at the Americans and their sex-obsessed
President throughout a heaving and unruly press conference held,
incongruously, underneath the chandeliers of Islamabad's Holiday Inn.

But just so no one misunderstood the Emir's Urdu, he had brought 20
like-minded Islamists, and a bodyguard toting a Kalashnikov, the gun
butt decorated with a verse of the Koran.

Speaking through a number of conflicting interpreters, the Emir said
that 21 of his men were killed and 40 wounded in the cruise missile
attack which "completely destroyed" his camp.

He insisted that the camp was not a military facility, but an
educational centre. His minder brandished the Kalashnikov at the
press to force home the educational point. "Were the bombs in Kenya
and Tanzania and outrage or a legitimate act?" asked The Observer.

"The Americans did it themselves to take attention away from Monica
Lewinsky," said the Emir.

"What evidence have you that the Americans bomb their own embassies?"

"It's been in the newspapers all over the world," said the Emir. He
was invited to name one.

"The Americans should first produce their evidence that the bases in
Afghanistan were used for terrorism," he said.

"The Americans are well-practised at killing people from small

Then one of the Emir's sympathisers started screaming that a
Pakistani journalist present at the press conference worked for the

A second sympathiser bawled out in English: "The war between America
and Islam has started." And the press conference broke up in chaos.

Later at the airport a team of UN officials and aid workers from
charities like Medecins Sans Frontieres arrived from the Taliban
stronghold of Kandahar. One aid worker said: "The atmosphere in
Kandahar after the cruise missile attack was extremely tense.

"We felt relatively safe because the Taliban security are very much
in control of the city, but nevertheless it was very unpleasant being
trapped inside the UN compound, not being able to move around."
Pakistan yesterday was swept with a series of feverish rumours that
the Americans would launch more strikes.

The mood in the northwest frontier of Pakistan, next to the Afghan
border, was described as being extremely tense and the British
Foreign Office has advised all nationals to leave the area.

Thus far the Pakistani Foreign Minister has voiced moderate
criticisms, calling the strikes counter-productive.

Reports sourced to Pakistan intelligence officers says that the six
targets hit by American cruise missiles belonged to three separate
groups: one controlled by bin Laden himself, one controlled by the
Emir himself from Pakistan, and a third group also run by Pakistanis
but consisting of many different nationals from throughout the
Islamic world.

The almost exclusively Arab camp run by bin Laden was at Khost, some
21 kms from the other two camps.

He lost 21 of his men, thought to be all Kashmiri.

The Pentagon has yet to provide any hard evidence that the Emir's
group, the Harkat-ul Mujahideen, was responsible for the bomb
outrages in Africa.

There is evidence linking bin Laden's faction with the attack through
the testimony of Mohammed Saddiq Odeh who is said to be "singing like
a canary" to the Kenyan CID and the FBI in Nairobi.

Some reports suggest that the attacks on bin Laden's stronghold did
not harm very many fighters because most were on the frontline in
north Afghanistan fighting with the Taliban "soldier monks" against
the remnants of the former government.

A few weeks ago Pakistan tested its own nuclear device underground,
its response to an international crisis started by India.

The possibility, still remote but no longer unthinkable, that
Pakistan may be so destabilised by the American missile attacks that
its government - and its nuclear capability - fall into the hands of
Islamic fundamentalists who wish to wage total war against America
must count as a new nightmare for the American administration and its
loyal friend in Britain Tony Blair.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 13:17 - ID#365216)
buy signal for Platinum Eagles?
Any suggestions on how low platinum should drop before we load
up on the platinum $100 Eagles?


(Tue Aug 25 1998 13:21 - ID#147201)
Yes, we have some advantages and I' on a nice rise well beyond any floods. I can see you'll be covered up, so as I said at your convenience and Gd Bless

(Tue Aug 25 1998 13:22 - ID#365216)
gasmask and hand-crank radio on back order
I ordered various supplies from the gun and outdoor supply company
CHEAPER THAN DIRT and interestingly enough both gasmasks and
a hand-crank radio/flashlight were on back order.

Hurricanes in NC, terrorism abounding: the Lord is warning us,
Will we listen?

(Tue Aug 25 1998 13:27 - ID#267255)
I really appreciate your response and your kindness. Sorry to hear that you got a little bummed up. Two years ago I separated a shoulder and broke the clavical on that side. It can be painful. My wife is a great believer in natural herbal kind of stuff. After the doc's finished what they could do, she put me on a pill that absolutely did wonders for my healing. If I knew how to send you some, I'd be glad to. My physician could not believe the progress I made, said it was the fastest such recover he'd seen in his 40 yrs of practice. In fact, he now prescibes it in his practice for any surgery, breaks or sprains.

If you have any interest, send me an e-mail. Otherwise, thanks for your thoughts, and may you soon be restored in whole.

Mtn Bear (SE)
(Tue Aug 25 1998 13:35 - ID#347267)
Replies due:
Had to do work outside, just came in for lunch/rest. Nice day here in western NC; 61 degrees on the porch early this am.
Silverbaron@0847: As you know by now I am convinced we are in a primary bear. I am adding to my RYURX and BEARX today. Yes; I think a big slide will affect the golds. Sold all but my CEF after they broke their respective 200 day lines. Recently couldn't stand it and bought 1000 sh of Kinross under 2 1/2. I have made the statement that I'm gonna hold till hell freezes over, but if reach 12 to 15 % loss will probably follow my discipline and sell. So far both CEF and KGC seem to be holding on.

Gollum@0925: Thanks for the reply. Have to say I do not agree that S&P will do better than Dow in a big bad bear. Rising AND FALLING tides ---you know.
Best regards; Mtn Bear

(Tue Aug 25 1998 13:41 - ID#402148)
Mike Sheller...........RHINOS in Copper and the XAU do I see?
Thanks, HB.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 13:42 - ID#147201)
General re your "cheaper than dirt" source
I would appreciate access to your source. Those prices must really be good. If you like, you can email thanx, Charlie

(Tue Aug 25 1998 13:42 - ID#267255)
sharefin re: storms
Thank you, kind sir, for all of the advice. I, too, was caught in a 'cane about 12 yrs ago. I never want to be in that position again. We lost three of our seven man crew ..... overboard. That was a terrible day in my life.

But, hey, how have you been able to read my notes from where you are? You have obviously "been there and done that". Your comments are certainly sound, and describe a path which I will surely follow. Thank you.

BTW, I visited your web site a few days ago. Best of luck with your auction, and the rest of your plans. Hope all goes well for you. And

GOT GOLD ....... YEP!

(Tue Aug 25 1998 13:42 - ID#284255)
Inbound seagul slipstreaming the ether.

Knit-bone - comprey is the herb for yoour achy-breaky bones.
Poltice and infused as a tea.

Get stuck into it...

Mtn Bear (SE)
(Tue Aug 25 1998 13:42 - ID#347267)
Majors today:
Not too bad, actually!

(Tue Aug 25 1998 13:45 - ID#388209)
Calling APH & Cyclist ! Is it time to load the boat on silver futures Or options ?
This sounds to me like the "Twilight Bark" !



(Tue Aug 25 1998 13:46 - ID#147201)
Mtn Bear SE
Where are you located? I'm in Morganton. I may have a prospecting source if you are up to it. Let me know. Email if nec- Thanx Charlie

Mtn Bear (SE)
(Tue Aug 25 1998 13:48 - ID#347267)
What I like about KGC is the chart pattern and the fact that on down days the volume ( selling pressure ) dries up. Anyone else following this one? Chart ( 3 month ) :

Mtn Bear (SE)
(Tue Aug 25 1998 13:53 - ID#347267)
@ charlie
Hi Chas. I am 'bout 25 miles out of Murphy. Sorry, not interested in the prospecting thing right now, too much on my plate.
Are you the same "charlie j I used to see over on the Strategic Investment forum?

(Tue Aug 25 1998 13:55 - ID#252150)
Alberich@The primitive societies had witch doctors & shamans & we have'nt
really progressed very much. Somehow, the articulate, charismatic & evil incompetents end up with far too much influence & have an adverse affect on societies at large. As for the great religions-IMO most of the worst atrocities through the ages were perpetrated by them. Makes me proud to be an atheist.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 13:59 - ID#267255)
ElDorado @ the scene re: topography
We are only a few hundred yards from the water, but luckily we are on a little bluff about 35 ft high. That has it's advantages and disadvantages. It's an advantage with rising water, a disadvantage when the wind is howling.

As for ground cover, greenery, etc, we're on five acres of wooded property of mostly pines and a few hardwoods. The heavy foliage this time of the year produces much more damage as it offers more resistence. We tend to have a lot of trees down. With all of the electric lines above ground, we are usually without current for an extended period.

Gianni Dioro__A
(Tue Aug 25 1998 14:05 - ID#384350)
At the Crest of the Tidal Wave
Last Friday, I said it might take an earthquake or suitcase bomb to rock the PPT, just like Barings/Leeson/PPT got stuck holding 61,000+ contracts on the Nikkei225 after the Kobe quake. This Bonnie may be the 1st punch, and they're expecting it. The 2nd punch will catch them by surprise ( whatever that may be ) .

It would be a bit bizarre if the history books in the future say the meltdown started because a precarious stockmarket couldn't take the brunt of hurricane bonnie. It would be like Prechter's book.

Duke, try to keep dry, and stand up strong against the storm.
( satelite image of storm )

(Tue Aug 25 1998 14:05 - ID#284255)
Sorry to hear you lost crew.
Must of been a humdinger.

My best blow at sea was 90knots
The sea was screaming and the waves awesome.

Wish I was there with you.
I love the exhilaration of a good blow.

We had the eye of one pass overhead last year but t'was a fizzer.
40knots and did little but weed the gardens.

Still dream of the sea, it's been a long four years.
T'is no fun not being a captain no more.
Instead a kooky geek behind a screen.

Good sailing.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 14:07 - ID#147201)
Mtn Bear SE
Re SI, I doubt it. Iv'e posted a few times, but not enough for anybody to notice. Do you know where the "Road to nowhere" is - out of Bryson City? There is a location there in the road bank that has intimate implications for a major gold formation. I can appreciate your plate, but if you have a wekend with a little time , you could make a big contribution. I can't move like I used to due to arthritis. I know I'm almost imposing, but this is just picking a rock from roadside. If it's impossible, ok. Thanx Charlie

(Tue Aug 25 1998 14:07 - ID#213265)
@the scene
Duke -- Hope you don't get a tree falling on you. But the rest of the 'scene' seems to be pretty good as long as all your access roads don't get washed out.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 14:08 - ID#410198)
John Disney....just got word on Fox News bomb went off in Planet Hollywood Cape Town any info?

(Tue Aug 25 1998 14:11 - ID#284255)
Dow looking healthy?/
Seems like the sellers are still in there.
Talk about short term profits.

Nasdaq already given up 1/2 of its gains.

Where's the pilot/

Gollum get back on the rudder.

The tick's getting abused again.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 14:12 - ID#252150)
Mtn bear@Kinross-I've traded it a few times & owned it for the latest run up
earlier this year. Even though they have written off several marginal properties & had some good hedges, I think they are a long way from profitability. With their Amax merger they inherited the Refugio albatross that needs 400 POG to make a profit. If the worst case scenario happened e.g. 250 pog for an extended period of time, I don't think that they would be a survivor. It is however, a good trading vehicle.

My favorite right now is PDG & I have enough confidence to buy the dips.
I did like ABX but gave up on them because of Munk's stupidity in exposing them to the Bre-x class action suit.

John Disney__A
(Tue Aug 25 1998 14:13 - ID#24135)
Bomb Blast .. wow
To all
1 Just received World Gold for August. One of the key
items they flag ..

"Short term lease rates fell over the month indicating
reduced speculative activity"
"Longer Term 12 month rates also declined suggesting
little gold producer hedging"

2. Just saw alan dershowitz ( ?? ) on larry king show.
I believe this guy has single handedly done more to
wreck the character of the american people than
anyone else I can think of.

3. Yeah sure .. bid laden has tried to kill wjc many
times .. and Im King Carol of Rumania... and the
dirt that the spook brought back had nasty stuff on
it from nerve gas. And Im the lost Rominov heir to
the Russian throne.

4. Breaking news .. Planet Hollywood at the Capetown
waterfront. 20 injured.. dont know what happened ..
gas explosion.. pipe bomb more likely Im guessing ..
hesbollah has a following and Moslems active in anti
drug - anti gay protests.

John Disney__A
(Tue Aug 25 1998 14:19 - ID#24135)
allah o akbar
to all ..
I believe that wjc in a matter
of a few days has created potentially
100,000 Islamic suicide troops ..
.. that weren't there a week ago.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 14:19 - ID#153110)
Dershowitz ?

(Tue Aug 25 1998 14:20 - ID#280214)
Duke_A - Good Luck and God Bless You and Yours
If your posts disappear for a while we will understand that your phones are down. If your computer gets trashed or merely buried and you can not get back on the Internet for an extended time please feel free to call or fax me at 719-486-3244. This is my store phone - I'm in from 9-5 M-F MDST or 7-3 your time. My message machine is on otherwise. My fax depends on incoming "callng" tones to switch to fax receive - otherwise several *'s in a row will force it to switch. Any message you wish to post to the group here I will do for you. Again, batten down the hatches - except the lee side - and Good Luck.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 14:22 - ID#284255)
Check out the Russel 2000 - 2 min chart
Looks like they're jumping ship.
Not the sort of stuff rally's are made of.


(Tue Aug 25 1998 14:24 - ID#153110)
@John_D @100,000
That's still 400,000 fewer than the number of Iraqi martyrs in the Gulf War production of Good vs Evil according to some reports.

James apparently has laid the atrocities of the twentieth century in Asia and Europe at the doorstep of one of the world's major religions, but I cannot fathom which one.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 14:24 - ID#24997)
Mapleman and Silver Maple coins
I don't know if you got the answer you were looking for yesterday but this is an URL to where you can buy them.
By your nick name I just assume that you are Canadian, if not, sorry, but if you are, for your info, I just bought a few weeks ago 100 of these beautiful 1 OZ silver Maple leaf coins at my bank CIBC. They charged me Can$ 1,379.00. It is a big markup of 72% but the Canadian Mint wanted Can$ 2,006.00 or 250% markup, so I guess it was a bargain. They are immaculate, sealed in plastic, they come packaged in unit of ten. The ones I received were dated of 1993.
Also for your info, I bought also some gold 1998 Maple Leaf through the same CIBC bank for US$307 when POG was $290 or a 6% markup. Someone is making big profit on silver.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 14:26 - ID#35571)
DOW +80
Good afternoon ladies and gentlemen. I have resumed cotrol from the autopilot and we shall be landing in about ninty minutes. There may be a small amount of buffeting as we descend to lower levels. Please return to your seats and fasten your seat belts. I hope you have enjoyed our flight so far.

Gianni Dioro__A
(Tue Aug 25 1998 14:26 - ID#384350)
Rambling aprs 2 verres de vin rouge
If the same people manipulating the Dow/S&P higher are the ones shorting gold, then when they get caught on their Dow/S&P longs, they may be forced to cover their shorts on gold.

The Goldman Sachs floatation could be coiling that spring to where it shouldn't be.

Anyone else think that last years mini-crash was maybe engineered? Perhaps they were holding too many long futures contracts, so they bought loads of puts, wrote tons of calls, then let the air out a bit, sold some of their longs, cashed out on their puts, and let the calls that they wrote expire worthless, collecting the premiums.

Also in a situation like Bonnie, cash dollars & Silver are probably the most practical in this "temporary" type disaster. Come Y2K, I'll have a mix of cash, coins, gold, silver. Gold will be in other places.

With all these BIOS chips sometimes embedded in the machinery, flying may be impossible come Y2K and for months after. And what if nuclear missiles start going ballistic! It's a scary thought. NZ shouldn't be too bad, but what if China's missiles just spout off. Would there be any fallout in NZ/OZ, So America, N. America, Europe ( does the USSR still have missiles pointed towards Europe and N. America? )

John Disney__A
(Tue Aug 25 1998 14:27 - ID#24135)
Its so refreshing ..
for a bomb ( ?? ) to go off here that
has NOTHING to do with Black -
White problems or revolutionary
baloney or Arikaaner dingbats..
It's probably only Moslems ..
.. the buggers pop up everywhere.
Oh I hear that Kabila's fat @ss is no
longer in Kinshasa .. he reminds me
of wjc .. likes long range warfare

(Tue Aug 25 1998 14:35 - ID#402151)
James the proud atheist

No need to wag your finger at evil dead people of centuries past, an exercise by which you think you distance yourself from them and imply that you a a good people.

How about wagging your finger at live and recent dead atheists who belong to the communist denomination ofyour religion beginning in Russia and continuing
on in China and Cuba. They have murdered more people in this century than any other single religious organization ever.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 14:36 - ID#284255)
OZ on line
Today Australia was named as a target for retribution.
Unless we stopped siding with BC they want to bomb us.

This is new to us and not very nice.
This is not our way and not our choice.
They claim they have the goods here already, to do the damage.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 14:40 - ID#402151)

I guess we haven't progressed. This century you guys are murdering people in the name of atheism.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 14:43 - ID#35571)
DOW +63
I understand that there has been some interest expressed in our new XAU rocket plane. We will be accepting bookings for mid to late September in another week or two for those who our interested. Our intended pilot, Captain Zelem, is very experienced in these sub orbital hops. I am sure that any thrill seekers will be well satisfied,

Cage Rattler
(Tue Aug 25 1998 14:44 - ID#33182)
Planet Hollywood bombing
Latest is that 2 people killed, 15 minor injuries, 1 cardiac arrest. Will update as it unfolds in Cape Town. Latest media speculation revolves around 'attack on American icon from Islamic extremists - PAGAD'

@robnoel - I actually stay in Cape Town pretty close to this whereas John Disney would probably need to use a telescope to see Table Mountain!

(Tue Aug 25 1998 14:44 - ID#372262)
It's all goin' to hell!
Islamic terrorism explodes while the world economy implodes! And there ain't nuthin' we can do about it! Lower prices for stuff. Higher prices for life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness! The century of brutal warfare and fascist dicktators is gonna' end just like it began with piles of dead bodies and a global depression! Y2shay! Do I sound bearish or what?

(Tue Aug 25 1998 14:54 - ID#372262)
The Dowasaurus is about to become extinct!
Kinda' like goldbugs.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 14:54 - ID#35571)
DOW +33
Please be sure your seatbelts are secure and that all carry on luggage is safely and securely stowed.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 14:55 - ID#284255)
Email has gone down.
Will try again later.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 15:02 - ID#280214)
Hugo - athiests, agnostics, believers, priests
Each of these groups have a share of rotten, cruel, tyrannical people. And each has a share of sharing, considerate, freedom-loving people. As an agnostic, unbeliever tending toward atheism I resent the implication that not adhering to a God or "The" God and in particular a specific doctrine automatically brands one as a bad person.
James is entirely correct that some horrendus atrocities were committed by religious people - whether they were fanactics bent on overt genocide or "merely" missionaries bent on converting the savages to the true faith. The latter case also often resulted in cultural or physical genocide.
Then there are those who worship Gold and consider as blasphemy any slight made upon it and sentence those guilty thereof to exhile or at least having their tongues cut out - lest they utter any more heretical statements which may incite people to doubt the one true religion.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 15:07 - ID#35571)
DOW +29
That sound you just heard was the landing gear doors being opened. Sky is overcast with 15 to 20 mph gusts at our landing site. There is moderate rain and the air temperature is 72.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 15:09 - ID#35571)
DOW +15
Flaps coming down, throttle back.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 15:09 - ID#284255)
SP500 just broke Oldmans sell of 1091
Down we go???

Bonds going crazy too.....

(Tue Aug 25 1998 15:10 - ID#37463)
Down she goes +10.55
Like a rock

(Tue Aug 25 1998 15:10 - ID#37463)
Down she goes +10.55
Like a rock

Mountain Goat
(Tue Aug 25 1998 15:13 - ID#35087)
@Gollum Airways
Is this an airplane or a rollercoaster?

The nose is still pointed at the ground!

MG ( Go Gold! )

(Tue Aug 25 1998 15:13 - ID#35571)
DOW +4
We will be raising the nose a bit and the increase in sound you hear will be some increased thorttle as we descend in our normal landing pattern.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 15:14 - ID#37463)
Last look at positive numbers for the day

(Tue Aug 25 1998 15:15 - ID#289357)

GSR $21 ( 1996 ) - now $1.13
URIX $17.50 ( 1996 ) - now $0.75
CALVF $9 ( 1994 ) - now $0.13
BGO $9 ( 1996 ) - now $1.06


Thank you, Central Bankers. You'll get yours.

Gandalf the White
(Tue Aug 25 1998 15:15 - ID#433301)
Why did you land so soon ? There are yet 40 minutes remaining to go.
OR does it take that long to unload the baggage ( carnage ) ?

(Tue Aug 25 1998 15:17 - ID#35571)
DOW +2
For those of you going on to the next stop, there are some shuttle flights available. We are in final approach now.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 15:18 - ID#37463)
DOWs belly touches sagebrush before churning up.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 15:21 - ID#25171)
Easy enough 40 bln $ just evaporated on the Russian restructuring package and there is more to come as $ denominated RUSSIAN debt is collapsing.
The losses in the banking system are tremendous.
Be prepared .

(Tue Aug 25 1998 15:21 - ID#35571)
DOW +12
Our programmed landing is for just below 8600 feet, and it appears we will be right on target or perhaps a bit ahead of schedule.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 15:24 - ID#373284)
to the fin that shares, Namaste' and a gulp to ya from the Island that is Long...
gotcha...whenever you have the chance...BEST REGARDS...most certainly...

(Tue Aug 25 1998 15:26 - ID#35571)
DOW -20
I will be a little busy during the next few minutes and will not be able to speak to you until we land. There are wind gusts and some cross winds but nothing to be alarmed about.

As we land you feel the landing gear touch down and the thrust reversers bringing us to a stop.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 15:31 - ID#372262)
Viva la Puetz! Sic heil da Cheeze!
Long live the BEAR! We're gonna' have a blast with war, depression and
terrorism! Deflate or die!

(Tue Aug 25 1998 15:33 - ID#185411)
gold stocks entered short term oversold territory
Note the following:

Gold stocks were overbaught on Thu.

Internet, NDX, and pharma stocks reached OVERBAUGHT conditions on last Wed. and have not gotten oversold since then - not even during the mild Fri sell off.

Cage Rattler
(Tue Aug 25 1998 15:46 - ID#33182)
Update: Planet Hollywood bombing
Local radio station was contacted by a group calling themselves - Muslims Against Global Oppression - who claimed responsibility for pipe bomb blast. Apparently the same group vowed revenge after the American cruise missle attacks.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 15:49 - ID#281175)
bonnie...but no clyde...stil gonna be a killer
mandatory for entire North Carolina coast...hurricane watch may be extended from the Island that is Long to Cape Cod...

tolerant1...stock up on tequilla.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 15:56 - ID#372228)
CRB Index
The CRB Index just broke the 200 level and is headed lower...Nobody in the world has any REAL money to buy commodities ( ie; wheat, corn, copper ) . Serious deflation in the commodities section lies ahead. Farmers are in trouble, mining companies are in trouble, Oil and gas companies are in trouble, Meat companies are in trouble....only coffee is holding it's own...I guess the big boys on Wall Street need their Java to keep them awake during the international crises...The only salvation of these markets is a lower $US...with devaluations all around the world, it will just be a matter of time now before all the other trading nations starts to cash in the only currency that is holding steady. If I were a foreign central banker, I would sure like to be out of the $US before everyone starts to dump their US paper bonds and watch the $US slide in value just like all the rest.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 15:56 - ID#288186)
COMEX Metal Warehouse Statistics for Aug. 25

Gold 912,517 + 18,014 troy ounces
Silver 79,084,294 + 4,247 troy ounces
Copper 58,273 + 0 short tons
I'll post some more info shortly. There was more movements ( adjustments )
from eligible stocks to registered stocks. See posts coming up.

Aragorn III
(Tue Aug 25 1998 15:57 - ID#35571)
Gollum, your 9:51today..."Gollum (@Aragorn III) ID#35571: Now only four."
After my long absence, it was nice to see your post from "outta the blue" while you were flyin' around in your little plane. Thanks for the time-frame update, and for the warm corner of your mind holding memories of our dialog.
Regards, Aragorn III

(Tue Aug 25 1998 15:58 - ID#219363)
Re: Why did the DOW tank ? Because the DOW is contrary, and fiesty, and doesn't like to be told what to do, and always does what is least expected. The DOW is a redhead with freckles and big Irish eyes, and she's given everything to tbe Bulls. Now she's bored, and moody, and has taken a new lover boy. She's being mysterious, but she'll break some hearts before she's done.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 16:01 - ID#17077)
Follow the Billionaires....Bass Purchase of 25% Freeport-McMoran...
...foreshadows a major disaster for gold shorts is just around the corner.

One of my only regrets in life is that I did not coat-tail the investment moves of the ingenious Bass Brothers. They have one of the most impressive investment records of any group of Billionaires. I imagine it must have something to do with their Yale pedigree ( yuk, yuk ) .

With their significant increase in the stock of Freeport-McMoran, I have no doubt we are about to witness a billionaire gang-bang on the gold shorts any day now.

You take three or four billionaires purchasing gold and silver inventories all at once and taking delivery and you have the makings of a gold/silver short panic of untold dimension.

Buffett, Soros, Bronfmans, and now the Bass Brothers....the billionaires are preparing a major assault upon gold and silver inventories.

This latest revelation represents the final validation of our patience as goldbugs.

Our Day in the Sun is finally here.

Peace of mind at last.



The Hatt
(Tue Aug 25 1998 16:12 - ID#364255)
Plunge Protection Team Hard At Work In Last Fifteen Minutes!
Someone asked me last night who is buying all this market saving paper! I replied with a question and that was; " Do you own mutual funds?" Why is it that the mutual fund holders in America cannot see that they have no control over their money and the fund managers have more than one good reason to support this confirmed bear! What is happening in the markets is borderline if not totally criminal and the day will come when many questions are asked. If you think Lewinsky has dominated the press wait till the new class of poor ( mutual fund holders ) begin asking questions... I maintain that our new business networks will face legal action based on BIASSED REPORTING not to mention propaganda intended to maintain calm in the markets.... Note: In the last market downturn more than one cnbc talking head brought up the fact that they work under contract and have no personal involvement in the markets.... Do you suppose that this statement was made for fun or was it a directive from the Legal Department! The game is nearing its end!!!!!!!!

(Tue Aug 25 1998 16:18 - ID#288186)
( Quoted in Troy Ounce )
Prev. Received Net Chg Total
Total Withdrawn Adjust. Today
R 2,934,735 0 0 0 610,176 3,544,911
E 1,386,427 604,658 0 604,658 -610,176 1,380,909
T 4,321,162 604,658 0 604,658 0 4,925,820

R 15,531,744 0 0 0 0 15,531,744
E 5,542,342 0 0 0 0 5,542,342
T 21,074,086 0 0 0 0 21,074,086

R 23,499,459 0 0 0 0 23,499,459
E 22,252,081 0 600,411 -600,411 0 21,651,670
T 45,751,540 0 600,411 -600,411 0 45,151,129

R 0 0 0 0 0 0
E 7,933,259 0 0 0 0 7,933,259
T 7,933,259 0 0 0 0 7,933,259

41,965,938 0 0 0 610,176 42,576,114
37,114,109 604,658 600,411 4,247 -610,176 36,508,180
79,080,047 604,658 600,411 4,247 0 79,084,294
Boy..the system is slow today. Anyway, I know the columns will probably
get out of alignment, so I'll give a summary...

There was 604,658 received into one of the depositorys and 600,411
withdrawn from another depository. this results in a net addition
of 4,247 oz's into eligible Silver stock. BUT! There was another
adjustment today! As you can see, there was 610,176 oz's removed
from eligibles and put into registered! This, in effect, shows that
there is less and less eligible Silver to the open market!
Gold stats coming up shortly, folks....

(Tue Aug 25 1998 16:20 - ID#43349)
This is your Captain speaking
I hope you didn't mind the slight buffeting near the end there, but we sometimes hafe to land these things in less than optimum conditions. We have landed at 8602, which is just a little above our target of 8580, but it's better to be a little too high than a little too low.

In any case we did a nearly perfect inverted Friday with a scale factor of about 1/2. We should be having some fine labor day rally flights starting in the next week or two.

In behalf of myself, the crew and the staff of Gollum airlines, I wish you a safe trip home and if you live anywhere near the East coast please be carefull of the hurricane.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 16:24 - ID#219363)
Bomb Kills 1 at S.Africa Restaurant
CAPE TOWN, South Africa ( AP ) -- A bomb exploded inside a crowded Planet Hollywood restaurant tonight, killing one person and injuring more than a dozen, police said. The explosion occurred at 7:20 p.m., when the restaurant was packed with diners, said Police Senior Superintendent John Sterrenberg. He said one woman had died and at least 15 people were injured.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 16:25 - ID#246224)
Jumping from the US$ to ... what???
The US$ is the currency of last resort. All other nations are falling, as the US$ is rising. Hot money wants to be 'stable' and 'strong' and is attracted to the like image. In the present scenario where all fiat currencies are the totality of the system, and there are no alternatives ( in mind ) then WHERE, pray tell, doth the hot money go but to the strongest and most stable fiat currency.

When will it leave? And if it doth leave, where shall it go? If all else is the whirlwind, why venture out of doors? Duke, can you tell us? If the whole world is on fire, where does one run? If the whole world is in deludge, then where does one shelter?

Gold obviously has not been considered yet. Else why is it on the floor? Forgetting ANOTHER's scenarios for now, what will drive people to seek gold? ( Not little people like us; Big people; People who control the fate of nations. )

The bond markets are 20 to 30 times larger than the Equities markets. Margin and derivatives exceed our imaginations. The number are so astonishing that we recoil at the pop, pop, pop of the zeros as they are spit out in rhythm.

I do not know the answers, just the questions. IMHO, things should have popped along time ago. Shows you how much I know! I am not tuned to this musical machine and can not sing the song, nor even hum along. But I keep wondering .. when, as you also wonder .. when.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 16:30 - ID#254269)
Quote of the Day;
" I would rather be assured of a good result, rather than hopeful of
a great one.".

Warren Buffet ( talking about corporate earnings )

(Tue Aug 25 1998 16:30 - ID#359316)
DOW plummets 89 points off day high
The spinmeisters say "DOW soars X from day low", so why not the other way?

I sometimes wonder if there is even enough go in the bull for a final
sucker rally.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 16:31 - ID#57232)
Market rally vanishes into Aether, Gold equities oversold?
All: Another failed one-day equity rally. Not good. This time of the year is supposed to be bullish, as we are heading into Labor day. After Labor day, historically the markets tend to head down.

Unfortunately Gold equities look even worse. No high-volume market churning to indicate a selling frenzy that might signify a bottom. I think the most likely scenario is that gold equities will go down some more before they bottom. Gold bullion may very well have bottomed, but that is little consolation if you are naively in drooping gold equities waiting for the rally that isn't/wasn't.

I'll bet that CRY0 and interest rates will be heading down some more -- and that Gold bullion will not rally significantly for some months more. Maybe spring 1999. Keep your powder dry - I am down to 5% equities, rest cash/US treasuries.

Today I sold the remainder of my ( long ) gold equity funds, on the assumption that we may have yet another gold fire sale. Perhaps not enough for gold bullion to do a swan dive below 280/oz, but certainly enough to make anyone invested in all but the best gold equities to wish he/she knew nothing about gold.

Why did I have to choose to invest in a political commodity? Well -- patience is a virtue, and those that can weather this deflationary storm will be well-rewarded indeed.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 16:31 - ID#219363)
Katyusha Rockets Land in Israel
KIRYAT SHEMONA, Israel ( AP ) -- Lebanese guerrillas fired a barrage of Katyusha rockets into the northern Israeli town of Kiryat Shemona late Tuesday, and Israel's Army radio reported injuries and damage. Such strikes are rare and in the past have provoked massive Israeli retaliation. The rocket attack came just hours after an Israeli helicopter gunship launched its own rocket across the shared border, killing a senior figure in the Shiite Muslim guerrilla group Amal.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 16:32 - ID#288186)
754,873 0 0 0 7,140 762,013
139,630 18,014 0 18,014 -7,140 150,504
894,503 18,014 0 18,014 0 912,517
To summarize, there were 18,014 oz's added to the eligibles today.
There was also an adjustment. 7,140 oz's were transfered from eligible
to registered at a different depository. Total eligible Gold is 150,504
oz's. That's still a drop in the bucket for someone like Bill Gates to
buy and have delivered. At a spot price of 285.00, they could buy all
the eligible Gold from Comex Warehouses at a low and well worth price
of approx. 43 million dollars!!! Whew!
Anyway, today was frustrating in the PM's and I guess it doesn't surprise
any of us. I just hope we're very very near the bottom for these Metals we have invested in!! Thanks, Foxman

(Tue Aug 25 1998 16:33 - ID#254269)
John Disney
What time is it there now ? Are you same time as London ? Just curious.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 16:36 - ID#372228)
As I see it, the world is getting ready to jump the "Good Ship USS $" and join the "New Ship EUC". Most of the brokerages have interfaced with the European Common Market to trade the Euro$. And some if not all of the foreign central bankers have either laid plans to buy or are thinking of converting some of their reserves to Euro$'s. So...we have a inkling of what could be within 4 months now...the wise man sees the opportunity and acts on it...everyone else just gets trampled on the way out...take whatever precausion you need to prepare for this event...because all markets rise and all markets fall...and they fall 5 times faster than they rise....

(Tue Aug 25 1998 16:36 - ID#43349)
Check the chart and you'll see we are spot on dead on target. The day traders distort everything. They jumped in this morning because the overnight markets were looking good. They closed out thier positions by the end of the day. The significant thing is that there was a net plus for the day even after all of that.

We are still a week too early to look for any significant part of the labor day rally.

The thing to watch for is when we depart the chart.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 16:46 - ID#354133)
If General hasn't informed you yet, here is the numbers/web site for "Cheaper Than Dirt": Orders only - 1-888-625-3848; Technical ( non-order ) questions - 817-624-6104; and their internet address -

As a side note, their prices are ballpark with some of the gun, ammo, parts, & surplus wholesalers I deal with. I have, on occasion, ordered from them - pretty decent price, service, and products ( unlike some internet dealers I've dealt with... )

Squirrel - I will answer your question a little later, just want to give you the right answer the first time.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 16:48 - ID#57232)
US dollar vs Gold
Allen ( USA ) : It is painfully clear that the majority of the world consider the US dollar the currency of last resort. I know it is not logical, but it does reflect the deflationary trends of the last 20 years or so -- that 'fiat' currencies are still the best choice -- but that some fiat currencies are better than others. Clearly an unexpected corollary of Gresham's law.

The US dollar will continue to rise ( or at least not fall ) until the last big non-US currency crisis is over. Russia, Japan, South America, Communist China still in progress. How will Germany do when their debt in Russia is uncovered? And -- the IMF -- the prime representative of the developed world fiat currencies -- is flat broke.

What really worries me is that if the US dollar continues to rise, what of Canada, Australia, etc? Even Europe. Shades of 1929.

What do we see beginning to turn the corner? Perhaps Japan. Japanese bankrupcies are accelerating up, indicating a change. Probably will get worse before it gets better.

Another wild card is the fact that the US markets are heading south -- clear to all in the know. Eventually the same thing will happen to the US dollar.

At some point, AG will be forced to lower short term rates -- or risk financial collapse in the US.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 16:51 - ID#373284)
to the Third in the House of ARAGORN, Namaste' gulps to ya...I should not be up
and about...yikes...just wanted to say hello...listening to Eight Miles High...Leo helps the pain...your a most helpful aspect of the prismatic apparition that is mefrom the Island that is LongREGARDSyesREGARDS

(Tue Aug 25 1998 16:51 - ID#253153)
Technical update from Paris
The CRB recorded new low's at 199.77. The Xau recorded new low's but gold refused to confirmed and closed at 283.20 oz. Thus , we have a none confirmation between the Xau and gold. We are in a prim ary bear market which can't be worked off by any means. The probability of a major depression now is better than 95%. When will gold equities move up ? Only after the crash which I expect in the Sep --Oct time frame. In the meantime, batten down the hatches and prepare for a massive depression.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 16:56 - ID#28861)
CRB Index pm notes

(Tue Aug 25 1998 16:58 - ID#57232)
Labor day rally
Gollum: Yes, you are right. After I posted I thought some more about Fosback's comments about pre-holiday rallies. They can be short -- of a few days duration. This year I think they will be unusually short.

In a backhanded way, the poor performance of the gold stocks is a barometer of how the markets are likely to behave. People tend to buy gold stocks during bullish times when they get nervous about how high a market has gone up. Right now, I suspect the nervousness is with any equity stocks. Especially ones that go down in deflationary times.

Have you thought about the fact that long term rates are clearly heading south, but that the US markets are not responding?

(Tue Aug 25 1998 16:58 - ID#286249)
Another product line under attack...
August 25, 1998
Brit Airways To Order Airbus Jets
British Prime Minister Tony Blair ( L ) shakes hands with British Airways Chief Executive Bob Ayling under the nose of an Airbus A320 August
25 in Toulouse after BA agreed to overlook its normal supplier
Boeing of America and instead choose the European Airbus consortium to provide up to 188 short-haul jets.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 16:59 - ID#255151)
Allen(USA)-16:25, trader_vic-16:36

Where will US dollars go, and when will they go there? Very good questions. Many at Kitco have said Jan. 1999 is the time of reckoning for the Euro, US$, and Gold. My guess is that the economy and financial markets in the US and Europe will be on the ropes by that time. The Euro will be coming online at what looks to be a very unsettled time. I think the US$ and the Euro are both going to be seriously hammered in a general flight from paper. As I see it, "stuff"--like Gold, Silver, oil, and and some real estate--will be the beneficiaries.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 17:00 - ID#354133)
I guess this makes it official - DUH!

In light of the recent U.S. military strikes against terrorist

targets in Afghanistan and Sudan, and possible threats to Americans and

American interests overseas, the Department of State urges U.S. citizens

traveling or residing abroad to review their security practices, to remain

alert to the changing situation, and to exercise much greater caution than

usual. Large crowds and other situations in which anti-American sentiments

may be expressed should be avoided. U.S. diplomatic posts worldwide are

taking appropriate security precautions.

Americans should be aware that Embassy operations are currently suspended

in Somalia, Sudan, Republic of Congo-Brazzaville, Democratic Republic of

Congo and Guinea-Bissau.

No U.S. consular services are currently available in these countries.

The United States does not maintain diplomatic or consular posts in

Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran, Libya and North Korea, and therefore no support

services are available to Americans in these countries. In light of the

above, Americans need to take additional and enhanced precautions with

reguard to these areas. Consular services in Kenya and Tanzania have been

reduced to minimal levels and in most cases to emergency citizens services


American citizens traveling abroad should contact the nearest U.S. Embassy

or Consulate by telephone or fax for up-date information on security

conditions. Current information on post operations is also available on

the Internet at This Worldwide Caution supercedes

the Worldwide Cautions issued on August 7 and August 16.

Department of State travel information and publications are available at

Internet address: U.S. travelers may hear

recorded information by calling the Department of State in Washington, D.C.

at 202-647-5225 from their touchtone telephones, or receive information by

automated telefax by dialing 202-647-3000 from their fax machine.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 17:02 - ID#28861)
Gold spin control
From today's news:

London gold fixed at $283.05 an ounce in the afternoon, down on the morning's $283.90, before falling further.

``This pressure is related to the options expiry tomorrow,'' said one Swiss dealer who predicted target strike prices at $282.50 and then $280.00 if the first one failed to hold.

``We understand that there was considerable pressure from short-side traders last week and the market absorbed everything that they could throw at it,'' said Rhona O'Connell, metals analyst for brokers T.Hoare & Co.

``Combine this with the fact that we are in the slowest part of the year with respect to physical demand and the underlying picture is clearly more robust than the currently stagnant price would suggest,'' she said in a daily report.

The Swiss dealer blamed options-related selling as being behind silver's fall during the European afternoon to $5.00 support, a level matching the three-month lows hit last week.

O'Connell highlighted increased supplies of silver from CIS countries as another factor.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 17:05 - ID#286249)
Currencies, havens, and things that go bump in the night...
For Europeans, Germans for example, there is a very nice DEM/USD/Euro play; bonds/equities denominated in USD cushion DEM investors from the DEM=Euro in January. It's a solid play, they LIKE it a LOT, they BELIEVE in it...Many different threads meet around the dollar water cooler.{:- ) )

(Tue Aug 25 1998 17:10 - ID#344239)

(Tue Aug 25 1998 17:15 - ID#43349)
They will respond, in due time. Historically the so called labor day rally begins AFTER labor day. Or at least right around labor day, but doesn't reach it's peak until some time after. I don't know how much I would trust this chart, but it DOES give a good rendition of averaged historical data ( with the current DOW superimposed ) .

Historically speaking we are in the trough twixt the end of the summer rally which typically peaks in mid July and the labor day rally which typically peaks in mid to late September.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 17:21 - ID#261322)
FOX-MAN_A re silver
I love silver, and have been holding some for quite awhile. Perhaps you can help me- if physical silver stocks are so low- why is the price also so low? I'm getting frustrated!!

(Tue Aug 25 1998 17:22 - ID#226307)
Stock Market Crash Update
Most manias peak over a 6-week interval. Some have been as short
as 5 weeks. Some like Hong Kong 1997 and the 1720 Mississippi
Bubble have taken 8 weeks.

This Friday will be 6 weeks for the DJIA -- time-wise, the ideal point for the crash to begin. Eclipse-wise, September 4th is the ideal point for
the current rally to end, and for the crash to begin ( most crashes
begin at the time of a lunar eclipse, and there's a lunar eclipse on
the weekend of September 4th ) .

Anyway, any time between now and September 4th is well within
normal deviation of the ideal turning point. It looks like we're now in
the Phase 4 rally. Next comes the Phase 5 crash.

One characteristic of a Phase 4 rally is a terrible performance of the
advance-decline line. The advance-decline line made new lows
again today ( combining NYSE, OTC, Amex, and NY Bonds ) . Even
when the DJIA was up 100 points earlier in the day, the number of
declines kept increasing as the DJIA held steady for several hours
at +100.

This is a horrendous performance by the broad market. I don't know
how much longer the current rally will last, 2 or 3 more up days by
the DJIA wouldn't surprise me. Nonetheless, we are rapidly approaching
the time that the cycles suggest a tremendous crash.

By the end of September 1998, I expect blood in the streets.


Steve Puetz

(Tue Aug 25 1998 17:23 - ID#219363)
21 Killed by Bombs on Uganda Buses
By HENRY WASSWA Associated Press Writer KAMPALA, Uganda ( AP ) -- Grenades or bombs exploded Tuesday on three buses in Uganda, killing at least 21 people, including a child, reports said. No one claimed responsibility for any of the blasts. The explosions -- two in southern Uganda and one
in the north -- appeared to have been caused by explosives hidden in stowed luggage, Capital FM radio reported.

Gianni Dioro__A
(Tue Aug 25 1998 17:30 - ID#384350)
Gold usually declines before the NYSE does
Gold was likely under pressure because the dow may very well hit 7350 by the end of this week. And that won't even be the crash, only the beginning of things to come. We may be in wave 3 of 3 especially if stocks drop convincingly below recent lows ( 8300 ) .

This Big Storm, Bonnie, isn't going to help the markets.
( Satelite gif )

(Tue Aug 25 1998 17:34 - ID#280339)
Commercial net long S&P contracts over 20000 S&P contracts
This is the first time since 1995 that the commercials have been this long. With the action last Friday I'll bet the next report shows an even
larger long position. The commercials are usually right about this market.

I know its insane but this last correction looks an awful lot like all the previous corrections in this bull. Besides Rubin and the PPT have to hold this all together for the Goldman Sachs IPO in November.

The bond market is rallying. The dollar is strong. The Vix is still very high. Rubin could be baking another bear stew. Its all the money from puts and shorts that keeps driving this market higher.

Of course the higher she goes the harder she falls.

Got Gold!!

Cage Rattler
(Tue Aug 25 1998 17:39 - ID#33182)
@Avalon - time is 23h47 in Cape Town, South Africa

(Tue Aug 25 1998 17:48 - ID#253153)
SteveIS-A---The commercials are ignoring the DOW Theory Bear Market Confirmation
I would not be surprise to see the commercials long S&P contracts become worthless during the next market decline.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 17:50 - ID#426220)

Based upon year to date record - and sorry state of the crude oil market, the Venezuelan currency may well devaluate another 13% by the Ides of March - from current 577 bolivares to 650 per US dollar.

Interestingly, when OIL was king, the exchange rate was 4 to 1. Just goes to prove the old saying ( in reverse ) - "Money indeed grows on trees." With the aid of science, engineers are able to process wool pulp, which is ultimately converted into paper that politicians call "MONEY." And what is not processed into fiat currency is rolled on to card board cylinders which are used daily in all the toilets of the world. Methinks there has to be a moral here somewhere ( : ( (

Whether pulp from trees is converted in to toilet paper or fiat money, it all eventually ends up in the "toilet."

Inevitably, the Venezuelan currency devaluation will pressure its stock market much further down than its curren decline of more than 70% in Venezuelan currency - but much further on a US dollar basis.

Venezuelans, like Asian investors would have done well HAD they purchased GOLD with their "wood pulp."

Don't fret if you feel "left-out," our turn in North-America will soon come.

Mr. Mick
(Tue Aug 25 1998 17:52 - ID#345321)
OLD GOLD - Katusha rockets and S.A. Bombing.....................
more evidence of Muslim restraint?

(Tue Aug 25 1998 18:01 - ID#288186)
bmacd; Why are Silver prices going down and staying down while Comex
Silver stocks are at historically low levels? GOOD QUESTION!

I can only guess on some of the possibilities. These may or may not
be right...

1 ) Commodities, in general, have been declining over the past couple
of years. Some of this is due to a high U.S. dollar and some of this
is due to decreasing demand ( or perceived decreasing demand ) both
locally and in foreign countries. This has especially been trumpeted
in regards to Gold and Silver. For example, there have been reports of
"less demand" in places like India, recently.

2 ) Another reason for Silver's demise ( and Gold's ) , is because of lack of
interest by the average investor. The average investor still thinks
equities and bonds are the way to go. They have no clue, in the U.S.,
how serious our global situation is. Economies collapsing, currencies
plummeting, political upheaval, civil unrest, terrorists activities,
threats of war, etc.

3 ) One final piece of the puzzle ( and this is the biggest as of late ) , is
that fund managers have been shorting the heck out of Silver ( and Gold
too ) . They have been shorting both Gold and Silver and following the
trend of other fund managers. Some of this is hedging and/or forward
selling as part of usual business for the mining industry. But alot of
it is pure shorting by speculators and big traders. They've made money
and will continue to short until shorting drys up or some significant
event convinces them to reverse.

I truly believe when these PM markets turn around, it will be EXPLOSIVE!
As you know, we kitcoites have come up with many many reasons why the PM's and mining stocks will sky rocket! It's only a matter of time and
patience, IMHO, and we'll have our day! Any and all are welcome to expand
on the above reasons I've listed ( or correct them ) Thanks, Foxman

P.S. I think these short traders are keeping an eye on Comex Warehouse
Stocks. They just haven't been scared enough. If we continue to see
these drawdowns, especially in the "eligibles", we'll see a turn in
metals very soon. Imagine when alot of these speculators close out
their short positions and, at the same time, go long! That's why
we'll see an explosive up move!!

(Tue Aug 25 1998 18:01 - ID#347235)
Mr. Mick & Old Gold
The only time you get Arab Restraint is AFTER the Isrealis Kick Butt as they have done seven times in the last 50 years. The current mess could have been avoided if Ol Slick had made a deal with Netanyahu to have the MOSSAD take out Bin Laden quietly, it would have been cheaper , done right the first time and no one would have known about it. SHALOM

(Tue Aug 25 1998 18:01 - ID#254269)
Cage Rattler.
Thanks. ( re time difference ) .

Cage Rattler
(Tue Aug 25 1998 18:03 - ID#33182)

Mr. Mick
(Tue Aug 25 1998 18:04 - ID#345321)
Retired Soldier..........Affirmative.....................
you would think the Arabs would get tired of having their keister handed to them in a bucket...................

(Tue Aug 25 1998 18:05 - ID#426220)

Actually, the title of gold analyst Joseph Miller's study is a in a way misnomer. It is in reality a study based upon the analysis of the DOW/GOLD Ration from 1885 to the present. Yes, this historic chart is indeed there for your copying for future reference. It's a keeper - which is difficult to find elsewhere.

First the chart clearly shows that there are cycles in
the relationship between gold prices and the
value of the stock market as represented by the
DJIA. We can easily see that there have been
six turning points in this relationship between
the stock market and gold prices during the
last hundred years. It is evident that the cycle lengths are
irregular, so we can not gain any timing insight from cycle length.
We can observe, however, that the cycle length has been shorter
in recent years, probably due to the accelerating pace of
information flow in recent years. We should also observe that
once a new cycle starts, it tends to last for many years. This
makes the recognition of a turning point of great importance if an
investor is to correctly choose the best investment vehicle and to
know whether to be a bull or bear in that market.

When we examine the three bottom turning points on the
chart, we see that they come when the ratio is in the one to
two ounces of gold range. This means that it only takes one
or two ounces of gold to buy one unit of the DJIA. This more
importantly means that gold prices are very high relative to
stock prices, and suggests a prudent investor would sell his
gold and purchase suitable stocks which fit his investment

The evidence appears overwhelmingly to
suggest that we are in a turning point in the relationship
between stock prices ( paper assets ) and gold prices ( real
assets ) . If this is correct, then we should see stock prices
fall and gold prices rise for the next few years at least.

One of gold analyst Miller's closing statements is noteworthy:

"I point out the evidence which suggests gold prices are at a
historically low level in 1998, by from $300 to as much as $2,000.

Joseph Miller's Report & Chart ( 1895 to present ) may be seen at the following website. As usual it will be necessary to delete the extra letters "en" in the word "golden" before posting the URL to the Internet :

(Tue Aug 25 1998 18:06 - ID#373284)
and so to the stars, early sky on the Island that is Long...spoke to Momma Joan in
Kentucky...adopted souls we be...would that the warmth inside fresh baked bread greet each and every one of more fine peach was birthed in Georgia...

(Tue Aug 25 1998 18:09 - ID#252150)
Mozel@I posted:
James ( Alberich@The primitive societies had witch doctors & shamans & we
have'nt ) ID#252150:
really progressed very much. Somehow, the articulate, charismatic & evil incompetents
end up with far too much influence & have an adverse affect on societies at large. As
for the great religions-IMO most of the worst atrocities through the ages were
perpetrated by them. Makes me proud to be an atheist.

You said to JD ( as a devious aside IMO ) :

James has apparently laid the atrocities of the 20th century at the doorstep of one the world's major religions, but I can't fathom which one.

If you are going to criticize any of my posts, at least have the courtesy & decency to read & understand them first.

I clearly stated "most of the worst atrocities", never mentioned the 20th century & never used "religion" ( singular ) .

What are you trying to insinuate? I have a lot of respect for your intellect, but am beginning to have some serious reservations about your character & integrity.

Cage Rattler
(Tue Aug 25 1998 18:09 - ID#33182)
U.S. Price Deceleration To End In '98?

(Tue Aug 25 1998 18:12 - ID#347235)
Mr Mick Tol 1

Mick,Thank you.

Tolly, comment not repeat not meant for you or anyone NOT connected with Hezballah or Hamas or Jihad ad nausium. Shalom to you.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 18:16 - ID#244418)
MidEast Realities EZINE
August 25, 1998 Staff

- _______ ____ ______
 M I D - E A S T R E A L I T I E S
 Making Sense of the Middle East
 www.MiddleEast.Org "WAR WITHOUT END"

MER - Washington - 8/25:

 Like throwing gasoline on a simmering fire, America's
modern-day "gun-boat diplomacy" is having its counter-effect --
one the Israelis have greatly stimulated and are so pleased
to have helped bring about.

 Throughout the Muslim world Osama bin Laden is now seen
as a kind of Arab "Che"...and he may well meet the same fate.
Throughout that complex and stirring world anti-American
groups will now dig themselves, literally and figuratively,
deeper underground. And those representing the Americans,
and their allies, will find themselves increasingly nervous,
on guard, and more and more separated from the "natives"
and the "street" in the very countries they most want continue
to dominate and control.

 This article from Islamabad published a few days ago in
The Observer is but the journalistic tip of the iceberg as
East and West collide.

 US WARNED OF "WAR WITHOUT END"

 The death of an Italian officer in Kabul
 may be the first of many Islamic extremist
 reprisals against the West

 By John Sweeney in Islamabad
[The Observer, 8/23/98]. The first instalment of the bill for
President Clinton's missile attacks on Afghanistan came through the
airport here yesterday wrapped in the sky-blue flag of the United

Pall bearers carried the coffin of Lieutenant Calo Carmine with as
much dignity as they could muster through the chaotic sweatbox of
Islamabad airport.

The Italian officer had been shot in the Afghan capital Kabul, and
died of his wounds. This was the first reprisal for the US cruise
missile attacks on 'terrorist' bases inside Afghanistan.

There will be more reprisals, and more homecomings in body bags as key
ally to Osama bin Laden, the exiled Saudi multimillionaire and
the West's Public Enemy Number One, declared yesterday: "The Americans
have started a war that will never end."

What sounded horribly like the opening salvos of a new and pitiless
conflict rang out from the messianic figure of the Grand Emir Gullana
Fazal-ul Rehman Kahalil. A terrorist leader close to bin Laden. His
head swathed in a large turban of the deepest black, the thickly
bearded Emir spat hatred at the Americans and their sex-obsessed
President throughout a heaving and unruly press conference held,
incongruously, underneath the chandeliers of Islamabad's Holiday Inn.

But just so no one misunderstood the Emir's Urdu, he had brought 20
like-minded Islamists, and a bodyguard toting a Kalashnikov, the gun
butt decorated with a verse of the Koran.

Speaking through a number of conflicting interpreters, the Emir said
that 21 of his men were killed and 40 wounded in the cruise missile
attack which "completely destroyed" his camp.

He insisted that the camp was not a military facility, but an
educational centre. His minder brandished the Kalashnikov at the
press to force home the educational point. "Were the bombs in Kenya
and Tanzania and outrage or a legitimate act?" asked The Observer.

"The Americans did it themselves to take attention away from Monica
Lewinsky," said the Emir.

"What evidence have you that the Americans bomb their own embassies?"

"It's been in the newspapers all over the world," said the Emir. He
was invited to name one.

"The Americans should first produce their evidence that the bases in
Afghanistan were used for terrorism," he said.

"The Americans are well-practised at killing people from small

Then one of the Emir's sympathisers started screaming that a
Pakistani journalist present at the press conference worked for the

A second sympathiser bawled out in English: "The war between America
and Islam has started." And the press conference broke up in chaos.

Later at the airport a team of UN officials and aid workers from
charities like Medecins Sans Frontieres arrived from the Taliban
stronghold of Kandahar. One aid worker said: "The atmosphere in
Kandahar after the cruise missile attack was extremely tense.

"We felt relatively safe because the Taliban security are very much
in control of the city, but nevertheless it was very unpleasant being
trapped inside the UN compound, not being able to move around."
Pakistan yesterday was swept with a series of feverish rumours that
the Americans would launch more strikes.

The mood in the northwest frontier of Pakistan, next to the Afghan
border, was described as being extremely tense and the British
Foreign Office has advised all nationals to leave the area.

Thus far the Pakistani Foreign Minister has voiced moderate
criticisms, calling the strikes counter-productive.

Reports sourced to Pakistan intelligence officers says that the six
targets hit by American cruise missiles belonged to three separate
groups: one controlled by bin Laden himself, one controlled by the
Emir himself from Pakistan, and a third group also run by Pakistanis
but consisting of many different nationals from throughout the
Islamic world.

The almost exclusively Arab camp run by bin Laden was at Khost, some
21 kms from the other two camps.

He lost 21 of his men, thought to be all Kashmiri.

The Pentagon has yet to provide any hard evidence that the Emir's
group, the Harkat-ul Mujahideen, was responsible for the bomb
outrages in Africa.

There is evidence linking bin Laden's faction with the attack through
the testimony of Mohammed Saddiq Odeh who is said to be "singing like
a canary" to the Kenyan CID and the FBI in Nairobi.

Some reports suggest that the attacks on bin Laden's stronghold did
not harm very many fighters because most were on the frontline in
north Afghanistan fighting with the Taliban "soldier monks" against
the remnants of the former government.

A few weeks ago Pakistan tested its own nuclear device underground,
its response to an international crisis started by India.

The possibility, still remote but no longer unthinkable, that
Pakistan may be so destabilised by the American missile attacks that
its government - and its nuclear capability - fall into the hands of
Islamic fundamentalists who wish to wage total war against America
must count as a new nightmare for the American administration and its
loyal friend in Britain Tony Blair.

 M I D - E A S T R E A L I T I E S
 ( c ) Copyright 1998
 MER may be freely distributed by email unedited.
 For any print publication permission in writing is required.
 MER@MiddleEast.Org / Fax: 202 362-6965 / Phone: 202 362-5266

(Tue Aug 25 1998 18:19 - ID#259400)
Testing, testing

(Tue Aug 25 1998 18:20 - ID#259400)
Farfel, I miss your postings over on the other forum. Need to get a few to switch over here to liven things up a bit.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 18:22 - ID#252150)
Hugo@I was on a Cdn warship during the Cuban embargo & followed the news
& U.S. propaganda concerning Cuba over the years, but don't ever recall reading about roaming bands of atheists slaughtering innocent Catholics.
BTW, why was the Pope there last year. IMO, communism notwithstanding, the vast majority of the Cuban people never strayed far from Catholicism.

Now, if you want to talk about the Spanish Inquisition, we can discuss some real serious persecution, torturing & slaughtering of innocent people of many races & other religions.

pot O gold__A
(Tue Aug 25 1998 18:22 - ID#223221)
I will do my business with bankers that are goldbugs
that holds the metal in his own vault.

Such a banker will be way of the day in the future.
When all worthless paper is made into tablets.

All men are now rich, even the poor who has the same
privilages and luxeries all is alike. It will not be so
in coming years. Euro countries will be the power in
the closing of this century as it first began.

Money will be money because of gold holders and gold will
be money because it is the money of all ages. Wealth will
soon be measured in gold and what gold can buy.

Gold is the last hope of any man to be a survivor of means
in the future.


(Tue Aug 25 1998 18:25 - ID#288186)
tolerant1; Hey bud, hope you recover quickly! Just remember to listen to
that good music that will warm your heart, soothe your soul, and
heal them aches. Well, maybe not the 3rd one, but you never know!
I'll play an old instrumental ( I think it's a Bill Monroe piece )
on my banjo, called "Gold Rush", in your honor tonight. Here's
hoping we have a "GOLD RUSH HIGH" from all our winning investments
in the PM markets!! Gotta go... BBML...Foxman

(Tue Aug 25 1998 18:27 - ID#286249)

The tables below are copies of pages 36-38 They reflect the Bank's understanding of the latest position,using publicly available information from a wide range of contacts, including overseas Embassies, central banks, governments and the ICSDs. They will be updated as new information becomes available.

Updated tables and charts

1.Redenomination plans of EU Member States wishing to join EMU on 1 January 1999 ( Version dated 11/6/98, PDF file 17k )

2.Conventioning intentions of EU Member States wishing to join EMU on 1 January 1999 ( Version dated 11/6/98, PDF file 14k )

(Tue Aug 25 1998 18:32 - ID#347235)
As we say in the Army, Kilo Mike Alpha and the same goes for the publisher of this unoriginal thought you wasted bandwidth on.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 18:34 - ID#254269)
Okay, which one of you guys sold your coin collection ? Tolly ! !

(Tue Aug 25 1998 18:41 - ID#347235)
I expect tolly will buy it from his poket change and find them in the ears of little children as gifts.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 18:43 - ID#347235)
Sorry poket = pocket!! Fat fingers AND CRS disease plus being tired, moving to Garmisch soon. Getting ready for an overseas move isa real
pain in the @.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 18:47 - ID#286249)
Foreign Affairs, Aug 25, 1998

$1 Trillion Could Shift to Euro from Dollar

The introduction of the euro could cause up to $1 trillion of international investment to shift from dollars into euros, heralding a new United States-European Union ( EU ) currency regime, that will heighten currency volatility and possibly destabilize world markets, predicts
C. Fred Bergsten in the July/August issue of Foreign Affairs. Bergsten, the director of the Institute for International Economics, writes that Economic and Monetary Union ( EMU ) "will be the most important development in the evolution of the international monetary system since the widespread adoption of flexible exchange rates in the early 1970's."

Mike Sheller
(Tue Aug 25 1998 18:54 - ID#347447)
food for thought
esse, come, mangia...

not EVERYONE is an idiot....

NEW YORK ( AP ) -- The recent selloff in corporate shares already has pared 37 percent from the average stock's 52-week high, a brokerage firm study shows.

The analysis, by Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette, depicts a vastly more serious and broader picture than portrayed by the popular indexes of large-company stocks, which show a decline of about 10 percent.

From another perspective, it could be interpreted as suggesting the market decline has already approached its low point and may be closer to recovery than originally believed.

DLJ said its findings, based on data from Factset Data Systems, confirms the view that ``outside the very largest firms, a bear market has taken hold,'' and that it approached in size the 1987 price collapse.

The 37 percent decline is based on an unweighted sample of share prices from 6,625 New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq companies through Aug. 21, all of which had market capitalizations of more than $1 billion.

While companies of that size are generally thought of as large, they are dwarfed by those in the 30 companies in the Dow Jones industrial average and the 500 in the most popular Standard & Poor's index.

Both these indicators are also market capitalization-weighted, meaning their share prices are assigned values proportionate to overall market capitalization rather than simply averaged out.

Mainly due to the large size of component companies, which have tended to do far better than shares of smaller concerns, these popular indicators have portrayed a market decline of only 10 percent or so.

Of 6,580 companies examined in the DLJ study, 6,107, or 93 percent, had fallen at least 10 percent, and 1,784, a quarter of the total, had declined at least 50 percent on the basis of Aug. 21 closing prices.

A similar analysis of 2,335 companies involved in the 1987 stock market plunge showed an average decline of 44 percent from the market peak on August 26 of that year to the trough on December 4.

Dominating the fallen group were technology and energy shares, and ADRs, or American-owned shares of foreign companies, although declines were spread throughout the list.

The results were said to have surprised researchers at DLJ, which has been more confident than some firms about a market recovery. It still holds to that view.

In its ``Portfolio Manager's Weekly,'' it observes that in view of such a broad-based deterioration ``a bottom point may be at hand.''

(Tue Aug 25 1998 18:55 - ID#244418)
Mark Helprin in WSJ today: "My Dear Mr. President".
Be attentive, then, sir, to the following. You and she have an extraconstitutional bent: she in encouraging rather than discouraging the fools who believed that, by their vaporous wishing, they had created a co-presidency; and you in your predilection for vaulting over the strictures of the law by the manipulation of mass opinion. This has been and is the core of your defense, and every ounce of effort that you put into it is a strike against the constitutional precepts of a government of laws and a strike for the kind of government in which a strongman stays at the top by exploiting with great agility and false pretense the most electric and volatile currents of public sentiment. This is the stuff of dictators....
entire article can be read at:

Mike Sheller
(Tue Aug 25 1998 18:56 - ID#347447)
Re murders by religionists vs athiests, I would have to agree that you are the victor, Hugo.

Aragorn III
(Tue Aug 25 1998 18:59 - ID#212323) one, I say, NO one busts themselves up in such a manner without a story to tell...
Thanks for the warm regards. Ticket for Leo and Chet is in hand. Now it's just a matter of time.

got time? ( heh heh heh... )

Let me know about your shoulder if it doesn't compromise your integrity as a fully functioning person.

got balance?

I feel I must send you some shoulder oil at my earliest convenience. Alert the Cuervo Central Mailroom. And on that note, I think you do this site a disservice when you leave the Gold out. Could you retrain the troops to accept the full version...Cuervo-Gold Central Mailroom.

got gold?

Heal yourself well, my friend.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 19:03 - ID#290408)
Why Moslems hate us
Ever notice that the news never seems to report just "why" Moslems hate us ( the U.S ) ?

Maybe this analogy will help:

Assume the that U.S. is a third world Country. Now assume that most
American Indians had fled to say China before being wiped out
by disease and the Indian "wars" of the 1800's.

Now assume that the Chinese army lands in California with 100,000
Indians and "gives" California back to it's "rightful" owners, the
Indians. As for the citizens of California? Well they are just out of luck.
Most flee to other states. Those that stay are "relocated" to
camps on the California border and denied citizenship in the "new" nation carved out of their homeland.

In fact, the analogy with the American Indians really isn't sufficient. The
Indians have only been gone about 100 years. The Jews had been
gone 2000 years.

Now substitute Israel for California, Jews for Indians, and The U.S.
for China and it's not hard to see why Moslems hate the U.S.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 19:08 - ID#253153)
Just a few facts
The Dow recorded it's high's on July 17, 98. A Dow Theory bear market was confirmed on Aug 4, 98. The first phase of this new bear market should be a crash and should end around the of Sep or the beginning of Oct. How far down ? My studies indicate 4500-5500 range. After the crash, we should get a rebound to the Dow 7000-7500 level before turning down again. Gold shares should begin to rise after the crash in Oct. Their move will be coupled with fed reduction in short term rates.

Mike Sheller
(Tue Aug 25 1998 19:12 - ID#347447)
I don't quite see a "Rhino" in the Xau - but the peak off the double bottom that has just been put in might look like one. A downtrend line on the Xau tells me that the new bull in gold will not be technically viable until we get past around 81. Hopefully, we are ready to rock n' roll soon, otherwise gold bugs have entered a great new "error."

Mike Sheller
(Tue Aug 25 1998 19:15 - ID#347447)
The July "highs" for the Dow was a ( you'll pardon the expression ) hand job. The real market peak was in April/May, and we have done an abc correction off that high already. Either that was waves 1 and 2 of a five wave downer with lots more to come, or we go to new highs from here. Keep an open mind.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 19:15 - ID#219363)
In Defense
Religions of the world may not be responsible for nearly as much destruction as is attributed to them in the "history" books. In America, I was taught seperation of church and state, mostly to protect the state. Some of the numerous examples given to me in the course of that education included the destruction of the Inca and Mayan cultures, the destruction of Hawaii's native culture, and that of most of the South Pacific, etc, etc, through conversion efforts of Christians and their ilk. In their ( mostly Christian ) defense, I suspect that religion didn't have nearly so much to do with it - Gold had a lot to do with the destruction of the Inca and Mayan cultures, and "conquest" in general destroyed the rest. Religion may have been the political under current of the time, but it's not as prevalent in world politics today, yet we see the same acts come across the stage again and again, the same drama, the same play. We may not be preaching the gospel, but we're sure selling a lot of Pepsi. It's the same as it ever was. Where ever you go, there you are.

Mike Sheller
(Tue Aug 25 1998 19:23 - ID#347447)
Blaming gold for the destruction of the Inca by the horrendous Spaniards is like blaming an embryo for an abortion.

The point is that humanbity as a whole has a lot to learn and far to go to regenerate. That is why religion exists in the first place. The fact that EVERY discipline, or revelation that Man has is filtered through his current imperfections is the fact of the Human Condition. Neitrher Popes or Presidents are perfect. That is why we have been given a Jesus, or a Buddha, a Moses, an Isaiah, a Krishna, or an Ayn Rand for that matter, to show us a purer way. There is a sciene of man that goes beyond the sum of these things. It will be revealked in the Aquarian Age. Let him/her who has ears hear. And eyes to see.

Mike Sheller
(Tue Aug 25 1998 19:24 - ID#347447)
Blaming gold for the destruction of the Inca by the horrendous Spaniards is like blaming an embryo for an abortion.

The point is that humanbity as a whole has a lot to learn and far to go to regenerate. That is why religion exists in the first place. The fact that EVERY discipline, or revelation that Man has is filtered through his current imperfections is the fact of the Human Condition. Neitrher Popes or Presidents are perfect. That is why we have been given a Jesus, or a Buddha, a Moses, an Isaiah, a Krishna, or an Ayn Rand for that matter, to show us a purer way. There is a sciene of man that goes beyond the sum of these things. It will be revealed in the Aquarian Age. Let him/her who has ears hear. And eyes to see.

Mike Sheller
(Tue Aug 25 1998 19:25 - ID#347447)
Sorry for the double post....
but you might do well to read it both times.

Mike Sheller
(Tue Aug 25 1998 19:26 - ID#347447)
you all know what I meant...

(Tue Aug 25 1998 19:28 - ID#410194)

Regarding your "crash update earlier":

Last year ( in November this time ) you also mentionned the poor advance-decline line as one of the reasons for your super-bearish attitude and for the greatest of all stock market crash to develop soon and yet, the market embarked on a journey that led to numerous new record highs. The upside move started litterally a few hours after your message and a few weeks after your loading up on S&P puts.

Can you give us your comments please, thanks.

Date: Sun Oct 26 1997 22:38
Puetz (> ) ID#222167:
Nick: I'm with you. I've also loaded up on S&P put options during the past 6 weeks. It's do-or-die time for us stock market bears.

Date: Mon Nov 17 1997 19:50
Puetz ( ) ID#222167:

I still wiev the stock market bearishly. Here are some reasons:

1 ) The advance-decline line has been pathetic. Tonight, it stands just barely above where it did on October 27th. Just 3 trading days ago, it fell into new-low territory. It has barely bounced back from that low.

2 ) The DJIA and S&P have once again rallied back to its resistance area -- at the levels before the October 27th panic.

3 ) Investor sentiment ( as measured by the AAII ) is at one of it most bullish levels in the past 10 years -- that's a good contrary indicator.

4 ) The market is now short-term over-bought -- fully correcting the short-term over-sold from 3 weeks ago. The stock market both intermediate-term and long-term over-bought.

5 ) Speculators have been pouring into stocks since October 27th. They are the most unstable group of all stock market players. Watch out when they try to sell. The question will be: Sell to whom?

6 ) A number of smaller foreign markets continue to trend lower. The international trend is down. Even the markets that have rallied -- they haven't approached their pre-October 27th levels. The US market is virtually alone in regaining what was lost since then.

This is my short-term analysis of the situation. My long-term analysis remains unchanged -- Super-Bearish!! I'm still expecting the greatest stock market crash of all-time to soon develop.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 19:32 - ID#348129)
From the London Sunday Observer ( Aug 23 ) , a new headache opens for the US President. Sudan has filed its grievance. Stay tuned.

Clinton knew target was civilian

American tests showed no trace of nerve gas at deadly' Sudan plant. The President ordered the attack anyway

By Ed Vulliamy in Washington, Henry McDonald in Belfast, and Shyam Bhatia and Martin Bright

Sunday August 23, 1998

President Bill Clinton knew he was bombing a civilian target when he ordered the United States attack on a Sudan chemical plant. Tests ordered by him showed that no nerve gas was on the site and two British professionals who recently worked at the factory said it clearly had no military purpose.

The disclosure will deepen the crisis, following the American attacks on Afghanistan and Sudan, in relations between the US and its Muslim allies, who have called upon Clinton to produce hard evidence that the attacks hada legitimate relevance to the war against international terrorism.

The US claims that the Al-Shifa Pharmaceuticals Industries plant in North Khartoum was producing the ingredients for the deadly VX nerve gas. But Sudan's assertion that it produced 50 per cent of the country's drug requirements is much closer to the truth.

Several vital pieces of evidence point to this conclusion. US forces flew a reconnaissance mission to test for traces of gas and reported that there were none. Nevertheless Clinton immediately authorised the attack. He was also told that the absence of gas would avoid the horrifying spectacle of civilian casualties. Sudan has said 10 people were injured, five seriously.

Belfast independent film-maker Irwin Armstrong, who visited the plant last year while making a promotional video for the Sudanese ambassador in London, said: "The Americans have got this completely wrong.

"In other parts of the country I encountered heavy security but not here. I was allowed to wander about quite freely. This is a perfectly normal chemical factory with the things you would expect - stainless steel vats and technicians."

Tom Carnaffin, of Hexham, Northumberland, worked as a technical manager from 1992 to 1996 for the Baaboud family, who own the plant.

"I have intimate knowledge of that factory and it just does not lend itself to the manufacture of chemical weapons," he said.

"The Americans claimed that the weapons were being manufactured in the veterinary part of the factory. I have intimate knowledge of that part of the [plant] and unless there have been some radical changes in the last few months, it just isn't equipped to cope with the demands of chemical weapon manufacturing.

"You need things like airlocks but this factory just has doors leading out onto the street. The factory was in the process of being sold to a Saudi Arabian. They are allies of the Americans and I don't think it would look very good in the prospectus that the factory was also manufacturing weapons for Baghdad."

Mtn Bear (SE)
(Tue Aug 25 1998 19:36 - ID#347267)
Evening all:
Gollum: Sorry I was not able to be with you on the flight today, working outside all day, what a drag; would rather have been there for the 1/2 sine wave flight. Getting harder and harder to keep that high and mighty dow up, ain't it?
chas: Sorry but wont be able to make it due to work on the mtn bear's den and relatives visits and trip to Fl, and so on and so forth. Maybe next year around May we can try again??

Mike Sheller: "---it observes that in view of such a broad-based deterioration ``a bottom point may be at hand.''----"
Well IMHO, them yuppie fun mangers they gone end up with bloody hands and mebbe arses too ) from tryin for to ketch them fallin knifes!

(Tue Aug 25 1998 19:38 - ID#335190)
"The law is on your side, but the guns are on the IRS's side!"@ IRS terrocrats
5. The IRS is not even a government agency. etc., etc., etc.


Edited by Frederick Mann
 Copyright 1994, 1997 TLH, ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

Part I

by "J. Otis"

Note: The approach I'm using is based on the book Vultures in Eagles Clothing.


I am a computer specialist and an independent sub-contractor, who works through a contract programming firm ( for purposes of this article, I have fictionalized my company's name to "CompuProTech, Inc." ) . My odyssey through the Internal Revenue Code began seven months ago, when I was looking for ways, as a self-employed person, to minimize my tax liability.

I read books by "experts," attended seminars by more "experts" and ( in the words of Omar Khayyam ) "came out by the same door as in I went," no wiser than before. So, I decided to take the plunge and research the Code myself.

As I did so, I noticed some strange things. Many definitions of terms in the §7700 section of the code seemed to be circular, and some important terms were not actually defined in the current editions of the Code. As I tried to do a "flow trace" of the definitions in the Code, it began to remind me of many 30-year old "spaghetti" COBOL programs I often have to debug.

Risk and Reward

I have learned a fundamental truth, which has penetrated to the marrow of my bones. The truth is that there is no safety in life, that "security" is an illusion, and that we lose our souls in the search for it ( for an excellent discussion of this idea, see The Wisdom of Insecurity by Alan Watts ) . Indeed, the most secure people I know are those who know their rights, who have discovered their personal power, and who are prepared to stand upon both.


If you are currently working for ( or through ) someone else, you can get withholding legally stopped. You will have to do your homework, and you must be prepared to explain your arguments to your employer, concisely and understandably. Indeed, if you cannot explain your position to someone else, that may be a hint that you do not understand it yourself!

If you choose to do as I have done, you must be psychologically and spiritually prepared to stand upon your rights. To me, it is essential to have a sound philosophy of life, so that you can keep things in proper perspective.

Note that you may become the company hero if you are successful. Once you get out of the system, everyone will want to escape! You will also be doing this country a great favor. If we can get enough people out before they get brainwashed into accepting the National Sales Tax / Flat Tax Fraud, we can as Deputy Barney Fife used to say:

"Nip it in the bud!"

FWIW Take Care

(Tue Aug 25 1998 19:39 - ID#373284)
Third in the House of ARAGORN..., NAMASTE', an entire series of Babe Ruth Gulps
to ya...just got sheared...tackled by four women, with a bad shoulder...aghhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh...

(Tue Aug 25 1998 19:42 - ID#242430)
For FOX-MAN What prompts
movement of registered to eligibles and vice versa???



Aragorn III
(Tue Aug 25 1998 19:47 - ID#212323) excellent question.
Kinda makes you wonder how and why COMEX finds itself with any elibible gold at all. Perhaps if a broker gets a helluva deal he is instructed to buy it outright on behalf of the company and it is held as eligible.

I encourage you to read my post on August 18th, at 18:33 for more on this.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 19:50 - ID#147201)
Thanx for the info on cheaperthandirt. Another possible target for the possible 10 grain coin

Aragorn III
(Tue Aug 25 1998 19:51 - ID#212323) it is to save you time. It was originally an answer to JTF's question or comment...
Date: Tue Aug 18 1998 18:33
Aragorn III ( JTF...a thought toward your 18:06 ) ID#212323:
You commented, "... I still think we are missing something here. Why
does gold seem to be traded in such a liquid fashion on the LMBA, and be
so unresponsive on Comex? Does the LMBA liquidity parallel Comex
liquidity? Are Comex stores an adequate measure of world-wide gold
trading stores?..."

I offer this for your consideration:

These two, the LBMA and the Comex are fundamentally different
operations. It is comparing apples to oranges, to use a popular

Review some of the dialog between Sequin and Silverbaron on speculating
in the currency markets. And remember, that what is considered
"speculation" to one man is "hedging" to another. The reasons are
different, yet the process is the same. It is this pursuit that keeps
them busy at the Comex. It is the meeting place for both sides of the
"bet" on the commodity price of gold. Usually the bets are settled with
cash, but sometimes with metal. The metal need not be present for the
"bookie" to take the bet...agreed? The losing side of the two-sided bet
will ultimately provide the settlement.

Those looking to purchase gold do not usually "go shopping" at the Comex
warehouses, although sometimes their vaults provide a place for
safekeeping of one's gold, and this service is indeed provided. Have you
noticed a large increase in the Registered gold inventory over the past
6 months? It is stored there for a fee. It would seems that some new
owners without storage capability have taken a long position during this
time. Agreed? Perhaps this gold was purchased through the likes of the
LBMA...a fine place to go shopping for gold.

Recognize the distinction?

(Tue Aug 25 1998 19:54 - ID#411259)
..... Metals .....

Silver should hold at 4.95 and stay mostly range bound twixt there and 5.50.

I think the gap at $362 will hold in platinum, with a downside risk of $348. Still and all, I would not get on the short side of this market; $360 platinum is almost always a good buy.. Yelstin cant seem to complete a fiscal quarter without firing his entire cabinet. Tends to muck up the machinery - slow things down. Only 5 months until the 98 contract expires and the process begins anew.

I am no longer a gold bear. Hearken ye all and be still in the pews for I am here to testify: Gold will rise. Not much beyond 315 - 320 this year, but the lows will hold. CB purchases and producer buybacks of forward sales will support our fair yellow sister. Be warned though, they will sell it into the dirt at $288 - $290 and be content to trade the range for awhile. I will not leverage gold long, and I still hold a few in the money gold shorts with tight stops, but I am delivering lots-o-gold to folks who cant seem to get enough gold when their delivered cost is less than $300 per ozer. I like it here.

Indeedy I do

Look for the Russians to dump some gold to support the ruble, perhaps PGMs too, rather than the metals being used as collateral for loans. They need some cash quick. Even if the metal is used to secure credit, the increased liquidity would have bearish implications.


(Tue Aug 25 1998 19:54 - ID#153110)
A Law of the Jews Becomes the Law of the Land
( The Georgetown Law Journal, Volume 71, Pages 1179 - 1200 )
The rational study of law is still to a large extent the study of History. Holmes, The Path of the Law.

1. Introduction
English Law, like the English language, is an amalgam of diverse cultural influances. The legal system may fairly be seen as a composite of discrete elements from disparate sources. After the conquest of 1066, the Normans imposed on the English an efficiently organized social system that crowded out many Anglo-Saxon traditions. The Jews, whom the Normans brought to England, in their turn contributed to the changing English society. The Jews brought a refined system of commercial law: their own form of commerce and a system of rules to facilitate and govern it. These rules made their way into the developing structure of English Law
Several elements of historical Jewish legal practice have been integrated into the English legal system. Notable among these is the written credit agreement - shetar, or starr, as it appears in English documents. The basis of the shetar, or "Jewish Gage," was a lien on all property ( including realty ) that has been traced as a source of the modern mortgage. Under Jewish law, the shetar permitted a creditor to proceed against all the goods and land of the defaulting debtor. Both "movable and immovable" property were subject to distraint.

Author: Shapiro

(Tue Aug 25 1998 19:57 - ID#26793)
Mexican interest rates up 20% in the past week.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 19:57 - ID#335190)
THE SECRET OF THE EMPIRE,Church,"fallacy force" @("truth force")defends the fact against the fallacy

Copyright  1997 Know

First Posted on Usenet on the 25th of October 1997

Distribute entire document without modification


Church falsely believes that truth of unproven claim, especially Church makes, is absolute truth. The fallacy is necessary element of church doctrine as well as Christian faith while church denies by ignoring the evident truth that the fallacy exists in Christian faith. When the simple secret of church is widely known to public, the simple secret would begin to break up church and form a force ( "truth force" ) that supports and defends the fact against the fallacy. After and during breaking up, Church will still continue to support and defend the fallacy against the truth, and remains "fallacy force". Two forces, fallacy and truth, would collide each other against. The collision would become bigger in scale.
The big collision would occur when one attempts to suppress another, and it creates turbulence and chaos.

If the truth force wins, people will be living in the world where masses no longer worship idol based on the fallacy.

However, if the fallacy force wins and rules the world, the fallacy force is likely to hold bigger power than before and masses will continue to worship idol based on the fallacy.


As history showed that church, the oldest and perhaps the most powerful empire ever existed, is not reasonable; church did not stop misleading people. Church has misled our ancestor, friends, parents, spouse and/or children.


A force that supports and defends the truth against the fallacy is likely to rise when the secret of the church is widely known to masses. The new force supports and defends the truth against the fallacy, is "truth force". This rising force would collide church, the fallacy force, and serves to break up of church. Some or many of group 2 member would join to this rising force and against church, once they belonged to.

The truth force will defend the truth against the fallacy while the fallacy force, church, will defend the fallacy against the truth.

Two forces would collide. When the truth force or the fallacy force attempt to suppress the opponent force, greater collision would be triggered beyond heated debate.


If the truth force wins in the possible gigantic collision, people would be living more reasonable world where masses no longer worship idol based on fallacy for the first time in human history after the turbulent and chaotic transition period. Businesses and politics that rely upon church would lose.

Most clergies are likely to lose their old profession and most church would be demolished or converted to museum or used for other purpose than worshipping idol.

Atheists who also fall into same kind of fallacy would not be appreciated anymore. Christian church would not be only one disappeared but most other religions including Judaism, Hinduism and Islam.

The revolutionary period could end the endless bloody dispute between PLO and Israel, and reduce or eliminate tension in many parts of the world due to contrary religious beliefs. Great impacts on cultures, politics, economy, society and each individual are unknown, however, would be revealed as the gigantic revolution is approaching.

However, if the truth force lose, the fallacy force rules the world.


We seem to be living in time of great hope, fear, danger and opportunity.

FWIW Take Care

Tantalus Rex
(Tue Aug 25 1998 20:02 - ID#295111)
XAU Stocks Today
ABX-Barrick Gold-CLOSED AT $16.0000 -0.3750 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) -0.46
ASL-Ashanti Gold-CLOSED AT $7.1250 -0.2500 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) -0.09
BMG-Battle Mountain-CLOSED AT $4.8125 -0.0625 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) -0.05
CDE-Coeur D'Alene-CLOSED AT $5.4375 -0.6875 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) -0.05
FCX-Freeport Mc-CLOSED AT $12.8125 0.0000 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) 0.00
GGO-Getchell Gold-CLOSED AT $11.2500 -0.5000 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) -0.05
HL-Hecla Mining-CLOSED AT $4.4375 -0.1250 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) -0.02
HM-Homestake Gold-CLOSED AT $10.5000 -0.2500 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) -0.17
NEM-Newmont Mining-CLOSED AT $16.8750 -0.1250 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) -0.06
PDG-PlacerDome Gold-CLOSED AT $9.8750 -0.2500 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) -0.20

XAU CLOSED AT 59.61 -1.18

(Tue Aug 25 1998 20:05 - ID#31867)
turn on America...
MEET AMERICA...and her kindness...

Aragorn III
(Tue Aug 25 1998 20:07 - ID#212323)
I'm really not one to have an inclination toward all things conspiratorial...
but what is with the POG over the past few days. The charts don't have any of the normal irregularities that we all come to expect and ponder over. The price movements have been smoother than bowel movements at a bran cereal convention.

If manipulation is part of the equation, somebody definately has BOTH eyes on the POG and BOTH hands on the controls in an attempt to keep this thing together..."this thing" being the interrelated gold, currency, and equity world markets.

My hat is off...thanks for the conversion opportunity. My posterity will thank you for so long as mankind walks the earth.

got more?

(Tue Aug 25 1998 20:08 - ID#242325)
You should have used caps for your latest post. I will do the honors.


Aragorn III
(Tue Aug 25 1998 20:10 - ID#212323)
Tolerant1...your broken bones...(I cant pass up this opportunity...priceless...)
got milk?

(Tue Aug 25 1998 20:11 - ID#17077)
Farfel, is your scenario above sound? For example consider the probability of all these events actually happening so"suddenly" that there would be no opportunity to react defensively:

1 ) What is the probability that both Rubin AND Greenspan would suddenly disappear and what would be the circumstance causing this?

( Thanks to Prez Hardon, we have attacked a group of Middle Eastern terrorists. Who knows who they may choose to target in retaliation? Anything's possible now ) .

2 ) Why would this cause "populist panic?" I can accept there would be an immediate strong negative reaction in financial markets, similar and short-lived as the reaction to Eisenhower's heart attack.

( Big difference between the Eisenhower years and today....we did not have the same absurd financial bubble back then....personal debt/leverage levels today are far higher than back then...a mutual fund industry controlling the stock market with a mere 3-5% cash level ( on average ) did not exist back then, etc., etc. Financial players regard Greenspan and Rubin as the primary foundation beneath this maniacal bull market. If they were suddenly out of the picture, the financial players would panic first, and their dumping would ultimately trigger a populist snowball ) .

3 ) "Dollar plummeting and rise in interest rates?" Why would the dollar have to plummet

( The American Dollar is the new ersatz "GOLD" in the global marketplace. If it suddenly plumments, then this "new gold" will prove to be a Fool's Gold ) .

- do you consider Rubin and Greenspan to be irreplacable saviours of some sort?

( Personally, I do not. However, Greenspan is regarded by Wall Street in Messianic terms...the guy that saved the Street back in '87 and most recently in '97. Rubin is considered Wall Street's Inside Boy in Prez Hardon's administration....someone who has and will always look after The Street's financial interests FIRST. Their sudden absence would cause massive coronaries all along The Street )

I'd like to believe that the POG would spike up somewhat, but given its past response to crisis events in the past year, an immediate stratospheric jump is illogical.

( Nonsense....POG has responded with huge spikes all over the world EXCEPT IN THE USA. Why? Because, as I mentioned before, the US Dollar is regarded as the New Gold. Therefore, at least for now, it has supplanted GOLD as the favored flight to safety in the hearts and minds of world citizens. This phenomenon is contingent upon Americans maintaining
unyielding Faith in both their economy and currency. THis Faith is based upon Americans' beliefs that world financial and currency crises are impossible here in America. When the American citizenry is finally confronted FIRST HAND with the economic contagion spreading across the world ( e.g., disappearing exports resulting in massive corporate layoffs, product shortages resulting from production shutdowns in foreign lands, etc. ) ...when ALL Americans become completely paranoid and suspicious of their political government, thanks to Prez Hardon's spate of duplicities and deceits... then and only then will Americans finally lose "the Faith." When Americans lose it, then the rest of the world will also lose it. The US Dollar -- a currency based upon the good faith of the goverment -- will collapse in such a scenario and Americans, in an atavistic reaction, will desperately seek out the currency of last resort: GOLD ) .

Again I ask, shouldn't we try to check our fears of an immediate collapse that would prevent us from re-entering the gold market at a modest premium after a calamity ( assuming we can define a realistic one ) .

( Max, you have your strategy...and I have mine. I am a buy and hold guy where gold is fact, if anything, I am a buy and buy more kind of guy based upon recent world developments. My strategy is based upon a fundamental belief that there will not be a good deal of time to act upon the initial gold thrust. You may be out at lunch one day and come back to find gold has moved limit up that day....with hundreds of thousands of buy orders preceding yours for the next day's open. If you doubt the plausibility of such a scenario, then I would suggest to you that gold is like a basketball pushed underwater, deeper and deeper these past few years. It has been held down by fiat currency governments who are hoping the general population will continue to regard bonds as the ONLY flight to safety. In other words, its natural equilibrium has been suppressed, most notably through gold leasing by Central Banks. Eventually, the controlling hand will slip and the ball will surge upward through the water, flying into the air.

I simply do not foresee a gradual movement upward in GOLD when its day finally arrives. GOld will announce its rebirth through a sharp, amazing spike never before seen.



Steve in TO__A
(Tue Aug 25 1998 20:12 - ID#209265)
Envy- concerning your 0:39 post . . .
just a quick note: the Book of the Revelation to John was written in Greek, not Hebrew. Basically, the entire New Testament was written in common, rather than literary, Greek, and most of the Old Testament was written in Hebrew, with a few parts in Aramaic.

If you like, I'll dig out my Greek New Testament & look @ Rev. 6:5-6. I'm sure that Denarius is the coin referred to, but we can have a look.

The Roman Denarius makes an interesting study in the dabsement of currency. It changed from being 90% silver in the 1st century to 1% silver by the time the Romans left Britain in the 4th century.

Hard money standards are no guarantee against government currency debasement.

- Steve

(Tue Aug 25 1998 20:13 - ID#17077)
@BILL2j...thanks for the compliment...
...I continue to enjoy reading your various posts.



(Tue Aug 25 1998 20:17 - ID#247309)
insure your physical gold
If you are concerned that the continuing downward trend of gold will continue to erode the value of your physical gold, tomorrow is the time to buy some puts. And with the Sep contract closing down $1.60, I am personnally concerned because most of mine is acquired at $300 to $325 levels. Dec98 puts with a 275 strike price are priced @ $370, up $40 from yesterday. They expire 11/13. Three puts @ $1,100 will protect the portfolio value of 300 ounces of gold from falling below $275, a mere $11.90 from todays Sept contract close.

Elliott waves provide confusing picture, but present the possibility of big fallout; todays CRB index falls to new lows, XAU making records.

So be a goldbug, but buy insurance.

Previous postings on Kitco suggest far-out in time puts - e.g. Dec99 270 strike puts cost $590 because of the time factor. Longer term = higher premium.

When the dollar turns, gold will fly - not before. IMHO

RJ - re: your 19:54 - is your guarded optimism based on TA as well as fundamentals? - could you share with us? Thanks

Disclaimer - the above is insurance idea, not investment advice.

Aragorn III
(Tue Aug 25 1998 20:26 - ID#212323)
Silverthorn...where do you buy this insurance--these "puts" you speak of?
COMEX, perhaps? My point exactly. ( Not to you, to others... )

(Tue Aug 25 1998 20:26 - ID#368244)

4.95 1/2

Aragorn III
(Tue Aug 25 1998 20:32 - ID#212323)
Duty in the kingdom calls...
And perhaps a stop at The Prancing Pony...

Will respond to any dialog if necessary ( unlikely ) tomorrow.

got gold?

Mike Sheller
(Tue Aug 25 1998 20:33 - ID#347447)
On RJ and sprouting horns
We've whiled away
the Kitco feast
with Buddha, Jesus,
and not the least
a slew of puts
from Puetz himself
as gold lay dormant
on the shelf

We've fretted about
coming World War Three
and excoriated
Commented on how
the world's a mess
and strained at the stain
on Monica's dress

But now the Sun
has begun to rise
for here before
our very eyes
A legend emerges
which will long be told
the knight Sir RJ
is bullish on gold!

Bully Beef
(Tue Aug 25 1998 20:35 - ID#259282)
Just wanted to agree with someone.Yes the price of gold has settled down.
Yes the tone of Kitco has gone on a scale of 1 to 10 a 7 for being off base ( but that's ok ) .Under these circumstances I am calling for.. ( a big bowl of bran in the morning ) no!.... what I mean to say is that gold will go up tommorrow and if you could by a million bucks worth tommorrow morning and sell it at the end of the day you could make a decent wage.
The Sh*t House Prophet

(Tue Aug 25 1998 20:36 - ID#31867)
Third in the House of ARAGORN..., Namaste' gulp to ya...
nothing but LOVE launched to ya from the Island that is Long...and for what it is worth, I just fell over the ottoman and my nose is not where it should is not my week...ya know!!!

(Tue Aug 25 1998 20:37 - ID#273227)
day trading & stuff
Gollum 16:36 & The Hatt 16:12 - Funny how we can watch the same markets and see different things. I didn't see the daytraders or the PPT the same way as either of you. I guess that is what makes a market.

Today the game got a little tougher - hedged trading accounts were banded. Basically the hedged accounted allows a trader to short a stock on a downtick. It also hides the fact that it is a new position verses closing out a position.

I don't remember anyone posting this here - a few weeks ago the NYSE adopted the following rule: When the S&P futures contract drops over 12 points, the NYSE will no longer honor stop loss orders placed on their books.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 20:38 - ID#288295)
Steve in TO & Envy

This is strange...the Aramaic translation in the
following source uses our old friend


(Tue Aug 25 1998 20:40 - ID#261304)
Hey Silverthorn,

Where's a good place to get me some
physical gold & maybe some stocks too?? Seems like some low priced stocks would be good insurance too?? Can they get any lower??

(Tue Aug 25 1998 20:46 - ID#31867)
and for Mike Sheller..., Namaste' and a gulp to ya...and now before I put my nose back in
place...Would that I might slake the thirst of humanity for compassion I would run the bucket down the Well that is youall my Love to you and yours...

(Tue Aug 25 1998 20:48 - ID#316193)
Bear Market Stock Funds - David Tice is Doing Very Well, Finally

(Tue Aug 25 1998 20:50 - ID#288286)
stocks to buy
I have owned ssc at four times where it is now when they were not digging an ounce od silver and have never lost a dime with them. It is trading at 75 cents. Can not go but 75 cents lower. I own a whole bunch and might buy more

(Tue Aug 25 1998 21:01 - ID#288295)
Russian $40 Billion loan default is NOTHING

According to USAGold, the Japanese Long Term
Credit Bank is on the hook for derivatives in the
amount of

$347 BILLION !!

(Tue Aug 25 1998 21:04 - ID#290281)
Sharefin: You hear anything about this found on Avid
I found the article about kicking Japan out of G7 humorus..The Richest country on earth kicked out of G7 Right!!!! The Jap[anese drive the west crazy, because they won't take the west's advice and can't be threatened.. It has been going on like this for the last 20 years. It drives EVERYONE crazy

(Tue Aug 25 1998 21:04 - ID#411259)
..... Allow Me To Wax (poetic.... not bikini) .....

Sheller honors me
And welcomes me home
Rjs a goldbug
Or so says the poem

And indeedy tis true
I once was a bear
But the bear is old
And loosing its hair

I have seen the bottom
And its just underneath
But itll be a few months
Afore gold gots some teeth

Tween then and now
Cautious is the word
But no longer will I liken
Gold to a turd.

( Sorry about the last But it IS poetry, after all.. )

Righty O

Greenstone Gold__A
(Tue Aug 25 1998 21:06 - ID#435212)

The Rothchild story.....

(Tue Aug 25 1998 21:10 - ID#147201)
tolerant1 re ottoman
I'm afraid you have caught my disease. I've been lucky about the nose and shoulders, but my butt has taken a beating. Healing to you, Charlie

(Tue Aug 25 1998 21:14 - ID#288295)
Nikkei 225 heading south^N225&d=1d

(Tue Aug 25 1998 21:16 - ID#147201)
The Hatt your 10:24
If you haven't checked SDRer at 18:47, please do and see what the implications are with your concept. If you prefer my email is Thanx Charlie

(Tue Aug 25 1998 21:20 - ID#206235)
@ RJ..... Literary excellence
Oh RJ your latest fine writ has us stunned
Your metal forecasts have been second to none
Thus I'm sure that all Goldbug's, will never ignore
Your poetic expressions that Gold will soon soar!


(Tue Aug 25 1998 21:23 - ID#411112)
Assuming JD is sleeping...for those who have an interest...TOURIST SURVIVAL GUIDE FOR CAPE TOWN.....

(Tue Aug 25 1998 21:24 - ID#206235)
@ James...
James re yout earlier 13:55, stating that the wordt historical atrocities have been comitted in the name of religion.

I would just seek to remind, that the philisophies of folks like Neitzche and Marx, spawned the regimes which comitted mass genocide to the tune of 10 million in Germany, 20 million in Russia, and countless millions in places like Cambodia, Vietnam, Bosnia, et al.

While it's true that some misguided fanatics have strayed from the faith and misused the scriptures, and God's name, by comitting atrocities in God's name, I would attribute such work to Satanic forces, not Godly ones.

Just a couple thoughts.


(Tue Aug 25 1998 21:27 - ID#206235)
Gold today

It seems Gold has closed within points of $284 the past few weeks on every ocassion I've checked it. With today's drastic move of a few cents lower ( what incredible volatility! ) we must be on the verge of that "final washout" that will be the harbinger of Gold's coming bull!


(Tue Aug 25 1998 21:28 - ID#411112)
Can someone explain to me why long URL's in my case always miss the last few letterss?


(Tue Aug 25 1998 21:28 - ID#228128)
The latest from PEI. Remember don't shoot, I'm only the messenger
Is the last Bear Market leg in Metals

Just Getting Started?

By Martin A. Armstrong

August 25, 1998

Copyright Princeton Economic Institute


The long-term perspective for both gold and silver is becoming very ugly to say the least. While the metals group has been the target on intense manipulation involving everything from copper, palladium, platinum and silver, there has also been attempts at trying to create the impression that even gold is getting tight. One trade house in particular has specialized in going after the funds day-in-and-day-out. Just recently, this house has been taking delivery of gold trying desperately to force it higher based solely upon the commitment of traders report that claims there are 60,000 short speculative positions. Despite selling in the cash and buying on the floor of the COMEX in a vain attempt to keep up the image that they rule this market, the overwhelming bearish fundamentals have prevented their latest play.


We have maintained that silver has been the primary focus of a group of serious market manipulators that have included one major member of the London bullion dealers. While stories of shortages have still filled the air, the truth is that these stories originate from London where the dealers still REFUSE to publish the inventories on hand. Given the fact that this type of behavior in the United States would be considered "insider trading" bordering on the line or criminal activity, the only way to approach this market is based upon price action since the fundamentals CANNOT be proven nor trusted. According to our sources, the vaults in London remain full with the greatest shortage still being storage space itself. Combining this information with the fact that nearly 70% of all silver exports from the US during the second-half of 1997 were made to London and not Asia, we tend to believe the US government statistics over those in the bullion industry, which a vested interest in hiding the truth. We do know that demand for silver in India has fallen by 80% during the first quarter of 1998. We believe that Indias silver consumption will be down on an annual basis at least 40% and perhaps as much as 60% for 1998 thus wiping out any shortage between current production and demand. The sanctions imposed on India for its nuclear testing have had a major impact upon its economy as well. This situation is only further complicated by the collapse in Asian currencies. The rise in the dollar due to the continued meltdown in the world economy is also having a negative impact upon silver.


The popular belief that gold and silver will rally with a stock market crash has anything but materialized. This is largely due to the fact that gold is now a commodity and not the official form of money as was the case under the gold standard. Therefore, as economic turmoil swirls around us, the first priority is liquidity. Where during the Great Depression gold represented liquidity, keep in mind that gold was cash, which was acceptable to pay ones bills. Today, cash is the dollar. Gold is not acceptable as payment on your VISA card, mortgage or just about anything else within the modern monetary system. Hence, gold this time will act like a commodity. ALL commodities collapsed during the Great Depression bottoming in 1932 along with stocks. Commodities, including silver, failed to provide any hedge whatsoever against the Great Depression despite the fact that the US remained on a gold standard throughout the entire period.


As illustrated here, silver collapsed from $1.344 in 1920 down to 25 cents going into the bottom of the Great Depression in 1932. Those who have been preaching that as soon as the stock markets crash the metals will rally do not have any historical correlation to support such a scenario. Consequently, 1998 appears to have been the culmination of a 7-year bull market instead of the beginning of a breakout. We had hoped that a low in 1998 would have developed. However, given the manipulation of the metals group in general, we now see that the low will most likely develop in 2000 perhaps during the 2nd quarter. The portrayal of Buffett as the savior of silver, who will NEVER sell under any circumstances, again has distorted the facts. When it comes to bonds and crude oil investments, Buffett has NEVER been a long-term investor. He has always taken very short-term views. Buffetts long-term investments have been restricted to purely stocks that pay a reasonable dividend and good capital appreciation. At this time, Buffetts silver investment is already in a 10% loss position and it could become much worse.


There is one popular rumor that has been floating around the marketplace, which we have no solid opinion on. It has been alleged that PhiBro had a pre-existing silver position in excess of 100 million ounces dating back to 1995. In order for Buffett to sell Solomon Brothers to Smith Barney, he was had to take this unprofitable position on his own books. This cannot be proven either way without getting into the books of PhiBro. Nonetheless, we do not believe that some of the players who were front-runners would have jumped into the silver market with both feet if this rumor were correct.


All things considered, the metals are simply headed significantly lower. A monthly closing for silver below $5 will then warn that a decline to the $4.50 level is in order. At the end of the day, our computer models are still adamant that silver will drop below $3. If our sources are correct that the London bullion dealers are indeed hiding 500 million ounces of silver from the world statistics, then this target is very realistic. While we no doubt will receive the usual hate mail due to this forecast, the point is that this issue can be settled very easily. London should open its vaults for a full INDEPENDENT audit. The mere fact that the London dealers refuse to publish these statistics perhaps suggests that there is indeed a pile of silver they do not want the marketplace to know about. If there is indeed a vast quantity of silver beyond Buffetts 120 million ounces sitting in London, what better way to keep up the propaganda about shortages than refusing to publish the inventory statistics? If our sources are correct on this issue, then considering the collapse in Asian demand combined with 500 million ounces in London, there is NO shortage at all and in fact we are back to a 2-year surplus or much more. Those who simply point to the COMEX stockpiles and claimed that "we assume that European stockpiles have declined by a like proportion" are making a very dangerous and irresponsible statement. They should take great care in their reports when the bona fide statistics are NOT available. They are either being paid as a consultant to those who want to propagate the myth of a shortage on an undisclosed basis, or they are not exercising their due-diligence that is expected of all independent research. We are NOT prepared to join the crowd on this issue of a shortage until London becomes a market where who own what can remain confidential, but total supply is fully disclosed to the public. After all NO leading financial market in the world operates under such rules


In the end, the continued collapse in Russia is likely to spillover into the former eastern block as well as into Latin America in particular Mexico. We are looking at another Asian contagion but this time in Europe. Unfortunately, this reality may keep commodities in a deflationary trend going into early 2000 before any reversal develops. Indeed, the similarities of our current global crisis are a much better fit fundamentally with the Great Depression than any other period in time. While the stock market peaked in 1929 and collapsed into 1932, the dollar soared into 1931 where it established its major high against every currency known to man. Every European nation defaulted on its debt, with the exception of Switzerland while Britain suspended payments for 6 months. Russia defaulted, China, most of Asia and Latin America. With each default, capital fled to the dollar creating domestic deflation within the US marketplace. Due to the fact that 40% of the civil work force in the US was employed within the agricultural sector, as the dollar rose commodities fell forcing farmers and miners into bankruptcy. To a large extent, we see the similarities with this period of the 1930s as striking to say the least. However, we do NOT see a 90% decline for stocks or commodities from current levels. While gold might collapse to the $190 area and silver down to $2.75, the US share market at worst might reach 3800 on the Dow or about a 66% correction. To be much more modest, we would expect perhaps a more realistic decline in the 40% area assuming that the next low in September/October unfolds with about a 23% correction. A correction of 66% would ONLY become likely if by mid October the Dow were down by 40%.


In summary, during the 1930s gold was money. It could be used to pay your landlord and debts. Today, a deflationary contraction drives the same forces into a search for liquidity. In the 1990s, liquidity is still cash; its just that cash is the dollar  not bars of precious metals. Gold and silver might rally if the dollar were at risk. However, the economic crisis is NOT taking place in the US  it is taking place everywhere else but! Reagan at least reversed the trend in the US economy away from socialism and toward a more fiscal conservative system. This shift has yet to take place in either Japan or continental Europe. The unfunded liabilities throughout Europe are more than twice those in the US on a percentage to GDP basis. This too is similar to the 1930s when European debt simply collapsed due to fiscal irresponsibility.


To add salt to the wound, the IMF has led the hedge funds and the Banks to the slaughter over Russia. By standing out as the guarantor of the world, many ran into Russia to buy GKOs yielding 100% or more. These guys looked at the high yield and assumed that the IMF would never let Russia collapse. The problem now is that Russia has collapsed and the losses are spreading around the globe. Again, Europeans hold about 90% of this exposure. Those who still think the dollar is a fiat currency are merely living in a fantasy world. The dollar remains as the most secure and fiscal responsible currency today. That might change in a few years, but for now  the dollar is looking very, very strong. The final death-blow to the metals may in fact be the IMF, which in the end will be forced to see its gold reserves for cash. The IMF is broke and with the collapse of Russia, in part propelled by the IMF itself, funding in the future is going to be lean indeed. With 70% of its liquid assets in gold, the IMF will become the next seller of last resort. With the rise in the dollar, we can also expect a continued increase in mine production for silver as well. Selling should be expected from both Russia and Mexico. A few years back, Russia was selling gold and buying silver switching their own reserves in part due to the shortage myth. Again reliable sources claim that Russia is also sitting on at least as much as Buffett bought.


During the final days of any bear market one is confronted by fundamentals that suddenly turn very ugly. When governments began to default during the 1930s, the final low came about 1.5 years later. Here too, we may be looking at about a 50% decline over the next 1.5-year period moving into a final low by the 1st or 2nd quarter of 2000.


(Tue Aug 25 1998 21:30 - ID#263287)
FOX-MAN_A and SIlver
Thanks for your reply. I tend to agree with you. But to me a shortage seems like a RATIONAL reason for a price move to the upside. So I guess at some point we'll be right, and it'll be worth the wait. Better sooner than later and the more explosive the better!

(Tue Aug 25 1998 21:32 - ID#206235)
@ U.S. at risk due to Senate filibuster
Listened to a brilliant dual PHD today, on local radio show stating that the Democrat senators in the U.S. Senate continue to commit treason by disallowing a full debate on whether the U.S. should initiate a missile defense program.

He also spoke of many things that have breached our security including loss of cruise missile this week, Clinton / Senate approval of Russian SS20 intercontinental ballistic missile sales to virtually any foreign Govt., etc.

This guy, ( wish I could remember his name, he's chairman of several rather important projects and comittee's related to foreign affairs and defense ) also spoke in detail about how much more dangerous the world is becoming with the destabilization on Russia, the new enemies being made toward the U.S., and our greatly reduced military budget.


Scary stuff.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 21:36 - ID#113316)
The Wager
DA: If you want to call off the bet, ok with me.

Look this up: "ardentes fortuna juvat".

True Regard, sig.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 21:38 - ID#411259)
..... You mean TA not T&A....yes? .....

Silverthorn -

A bit-o-both. There is a major 18 year bottom in place. So much for the TA.

It will be simple support. CBs are becoming buyers of gold. Remember when I tried to explain that the CBs are traders too? Seems they are now at liberty to buy gold at 280, that they sold for 330, 350, etc. Perhaps those whose railed against the Central Banks for their cursed gold sales can now catch a glimmer of how and why these sales happen. The Bankers are laughing all the way to the...... well..... nowhere actually, they ARE the bank..... no where to whistle to, except maybe the water fountain.

Also even therefore indeedy, gold producers are buying back their forward sales - again at tidy profits. These two factors, working in concert should keep gold above the lows. There will be more leasing and sales as the year winds down, but it will be bound in a tight range and I think 278 will hold.

Beware the Russians. They dont really have enough gold to send the market in a tailspin should they decide to sell some quick, but the news will be good for a $5 drop.


(Tue Aug 25 1998 21:38 - ID#206235)
@ IDT....... re Armstrong
We need messages like yours from our pal Armstrong.

It also points up why we need guy's like Realistic to keep us in remebrance of the important historical past. You know, when the metals run-ups begin, we all need to spend the next few months making SURE that every media outlet is fully aware of Armstrong's lack of credibility, and his rumor mongering market manipulations for all time!!

Personally, I relish the day it comes. I'll make sure to do MY part!


(Tue Aug 25 1998 21:42 - ID#238422)
RJ, here is statement from the Kremlin.
Received it by phone 1 hour ago, from Kremlin speaker...
recorded on tape. Here is exact translation into English.

Our comrade and also dear brother known as R.J.Indeedy!

Comrades Boris Y. and Victor C. just finished fighting
with the last Kremlin reserve bottle of Chopin, smuggled
from Warsaw with the heroic help of old Polish comrades.

They just issued a joint statement to the world about gold.
They decided that Russia will not dump gold to support
the ruble, because everything they could dump they
already dumped...and if they forgot to dump something
valuable, comrades from mafia did...

Therefore, both comrades decided that ruble needs a fix.
This fix will include many new rubles to help old rubles
which are in short supply. Russia is a very big country
with unlimited everything, and Russia needs unlimited rubles.
Therefore and thus or whatever...also unfortunatey both
comrades agreed that the only way out of this unpleasant
situation, created by Soros, is to keep gold for themselves,
because in no way this gold can or will be used in the
court of law to support this ruble.Yes.!

But, because everybody expects Russia to dump something,
both comrades decided to dump this thin..thingie...bingie
woolie...boolie know...Japanese brothers asked
us about it....damn...ah..dah ....pladium...

The rest of tape is unclear, but it seems I heard some
shots...Kremlin guys were brutally killing another bottle,
sounded like it was Martel smuggled by French comrades...

(Tue Aug 25 1998 21:45 - ID#342376)
Martin Armstrong
I like this part.... "Gold and silver might rally if the dollar were at risk. However, the economic crisis is NOT taking place in the US  it is taking place everywhere else but!" Does this guy think the US is an isolated ecomomy? What a joke this guy is. Let's all email him when the s&*t hits the fan. Can you say EURO, Martin?

(Tue Aug 25 1998 21:54 - ID#30116)
Spread on interest rates...
Below is a chart of the spread between the thirty year long bond and short term interest rates ( ninety day money ) . This is an amazing chart. Forty eight basis points for taking on the risk of locking your money in to a thirty year bond! For a lousy 0.48% more than a ninety than a ninety day bill! What's wrong with this picture!?

(Tue Aug 25 1998 21:57 - ID#247309)
RJ - CB's are indeed traders
which is why they have been selling gold, for sure. Since the perception is that gold is a commodity, selling it increases the value of their other bigger commodity the US$. Of course, they will repurchase it when the dollar, their bigger commodity, takes a broadside. Timing here is the only real issue. Occam's razor verifys this as opposed to obscure conspiracy theories. I don't remember the reasoning proposed here on Kitco for believing the BIS won't let gold go below $280, and didn't believe it when it was proposed. ( That big idea was proposed by the same poster who never offered one shred of evidence that any oil producer was being paid $30 a barrel for oil, blah blah ) If gold is a good buy at $280, it is a better buy at $250 etc. Gold may again become money, but as long as people think rice or beans or dollars are money, it must wait for a reallignment in thinking.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 21:59 - ID#411259)
..... After reading over the last few .....

Mikey and Lurky
Though I am a fan of both youse guys
Your words join mine
As some of the WORST poetry
EVER written

Tis a fine distinction
And we should all be proud

Righty O

(Tue Aug 25 1998 21:59 - ID#31867)
William Jefferson Clinton...Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmm...I just spoke with my dead
Father...and he said he would not forgive me if I did not tell you to kiss my ass...all the intelligence agencies know EXACTLY where to find me PAL...the Mafia, FBI and everybody else...I would be ashamed to even know your make a mockery of my Father and the proud men and women that gave their lives for real Americans to know the comfort that is the USA...


(Tue Aug 25 1998 22:02 - ID#371302)
Gold Standard
As to gold becoming merely a commodity because we are no longer on the gold standard; were we on the gold standard when gold went to $800.00 in 1980?

(Tue Aug 25 1998 22:02 - ID#30116)
The dollar........
OK, what would cause the dollar to tank? Keep it rational and simple please, my 1.656 functioning brain cells can handle only so much information input...........

(Tue Aug 25 1998 22:03 - ID#250205)
Armstrong crazytimes
I think you are missing the point. You better look at the chart he has on his latest article. Silver & commodities declined with stocks into 1932 & then FDR devalued dollar by confiscating gold. I think if you read what he is saying, dollar goes up so high that US ends up with same crisis as in 1930s and Japan had in 1995. High dollar creates deflation which makes also stocks decline due to corporate profits. In any event, he is saying that we are in delation for next 1.5 years where stocks & commodities go down. I think he might be right. If that happens, Fed will be forced to lower rates & monetize. Maybe then bull market in gold appears. As long as US$ goes up, foreigners sell gold. If Russia sells now, they get probably 50% more in Rubles than last week. That's what is going on and that is the same thing as 1929.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 22:04 - ID#269191)
Martin A. Armstrong is a crank.
His whole argument about gold is premised on the false assumption that
gold is just a commodity and has been demonitized. If that's the
case why would the ECB bother to hold any of its monetary reserves
in gold? They apparently haven't accepted the gospel according to
Mr. Armstrong.

The problem with gold is high U.S. short-term interest rates. The
high rates encourage speculators and producers to short sell because
of the spreads between spot and future prices. They also encourage
central banks to hold more dollars because of the opportunity cost
of holding gold. The high rates also encourage a carry trade in gold

The high short-rates won't last much longer. Because of them the dollar
is overvalued against foreign currencies and therefore, the U.S. is
importing deflation. This is already killing agriculture and any
business dependent on exports. Other firms' profits are being hurt
by competition from cheap imports. The stock market is wobbly because
the profits aren't there to sustain a market that's still selling at
27 times trailing earnings.

When the economic pain becomes more generalized or the stock market
crashes, the Fed will have to cut rates and when that happens the
dollar will begin a long bear market and gold will glitter again.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 22:12 - ID#113316)
DEJ vs Armstrong the kook
Agree, Armstrong is wrong, but gold is the last resource. When will it turn.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 22:17 - ID#39857)
Gold A$494.
Up ten bucks from last friday.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 22:18 - ID#113316)
US dollar @ Panda
Back to turns on fright. Begs the next question.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 22:21 - ID#373403)
Hey Central Banks!
Over here! No matter what you do, no matter how long you keep gold down, I WILL NEVER SELL!

I'm on to you!

(Tue Aug 25 1998 22:22 - ID#411259)
..... Brother oris .....

As always, I defer to you in all things Russian.

I suspect the sounds you heard were not gunshots, but the sound of corks unleashed from their ethanol bondage as braces of bottles are loosed upon the proletariat plebiscite at large to further addle the stunned masses.

The rockgut to the proles, but fine Chopin is poured indoors ( at the precise temperature outdoors ) as these swine get cranked on distilled Strobrawa potatoes and gleefuly plot the continued looting of a once great nation.

It is the people who pay the costs of their government, and money is the gentler payment.

Sometimes the invoice is payable only in blood, but not of those who write the bill

They will always be snug and warm and sipping fine potatoes to forget their sins.


(Tue Aug 25 1998 22:25 - ID#250205)
DEJ gold is commodity at least today & we should be greatful
I like gold as a hedge against government defaults. But if we go back to a gold standard, then the government comes after my gold. As long as gold is a freely traded commodity, it can be used as a hedge by those who want the freedom to do so. If we go back to gold standard, they will take your gold and give you dollars again. Then what? Besides, ECB held far less gold than everyone expected. Just because all central banks still have gold doesn't mean its legal tender to pay your rent. CBs also have heaps of currencies from all major nations. They also probably had some rubles. My landlord won't take gold or rubles, dmarks or pounds. He wants dollars only because his bank wants dollars only. Its not likely to change anytime soon. Did you ever hear of the Bank of America project? They took everyones dollars away & gave them devt cards in one town in Calif to see if electronic money was feasible. It was. I think when the dust settles everyone will be given plastic for dollars so the government can get every last penny of tax. No way will they ever go back to a gold standard and perpetuate such a system. FDR confiscated gold because he wanted to force all citizens to accept paper. Next it will be plastic.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 22:27 - ID#290172)
A little news item that provides some 'depth of field' to our picture of the world

A not so subtle slap to the Clinton Administration's face

Tuesday, August 25, 1998: The News Channel
Sudan Wants Carter to Inspect Bombed Plant
BAGHDAD ( Reuters ) -- Sudan's Foreign Minister Mustafa Osman
Ismail said former U.S. president Jimmy Carter could lead a U.S. team
to inspect a Sudanese factory which was hit by U.S. missiles on
Thursday on grounds it produced chemical weapons.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 22:31 - ID#290172)
Maddy needs to have a chat with Bobby...
8/25/98 Japan Times editorial--
Mr. Komura explained to Ms. Albright the Japanese government's economic and financial revival plans, including the bank bailout package. In response, she reportedly demanded action, not words, from Tokyo

(Tue Aug 25 1998 22:33 - ID#113316)
Financial insecurity
The US dollar breaks when it does the unexpected...severe economic confusion. Here's a Kitco anti-thought: The US dollar is "gold". And gold is no more than aluminum.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 22:38 - ID#241261)
Look---gold spot price up to $500.00 ONLY KIDDING, really.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 22:38 - ID#25257)
Golden Bears: 1979 Redux
Im with Claude Cormier. Dont go all the way back to 1929 when you can more easily revisit 1979, when POG stood at 280. Ahhh! I remember well going down to the local AU-meister and being told, "Don't buy gold yet, it's too expensive." $580/ounce in lost profits later...well, you know the rest of the story. But please people,......


Let them ol bears graze and grow fat on the natural terrain. The more gold bears, the sooner LADY GOLD will soar. Heres hoping Mr. Armstrong clones himself a thousand fold.


(Tue Aug 25 1998 22:40 - ID#219363)
@Mike Sheller
Wasn't blaming anyone, least of all Gold. *grin* I think if you re-read what I posted you'll see I was just saying "Everything is what it is", and that there wasn't any fault.

old gold__A
(Tue Aug 25 1998 22:42 - ID#241261)
Question: What drives gold prices? Answer: A Silver lining.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 22:44 - ID#174103)
I came to a similar conclusion: as the equities markets tank, and tank they will, whether this week, next month or next year. AG is told to loosen credit by RR, WC, et al. ( after all, they're just bailing out their buddies ) He refuses, and resigns. Rates initially go down, but bond traders, knowing they are going to get boffed, sell their bonds, or demand more of a premium to buy them. Interest rates then rise ( the opposite of the intended policy ) , dollars come home, and its deja vu all over again.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 22:44 - ID#189268)
From the comments I read this evening and those that I read previously I have reached one conclusion about Mr. Armstrong. It is he who is the manipulator of facts regarding Gold and silver. Previously at his site he
made the assertion that commodities would only rally if the U.S dollar went higher? If you look at any commodity you will see the opposite has in fact occured. Since the dollar bull began in 1995, almost all commodities have gone down, some as much as 80%. The article this evening again distorts facts and Mr. Armstrong draws his own conclusions to his satisfy his own agenda.

The article begins by stating that a group of "serious market manipulators" including one major member of the London bullion dealers has been hiding true inventory levels in London. He goes on to say that ..."we tend to believe the US government statistics over those in the bullion industry, which a vested interest in hiding the truth." My question is what is the vested interest of Martin Armstrong in Silver and Gold? I assume he has short postions of some size based on his analysis but he does not disclose this fact! He goes on to state that Warren Buffet's holdings in Oil and bonds are short-term in nature. However he does not state that his bond holdings increased dramtically and he bought oil several years ago and still has a position as of his latest report. The bottom line is that Warren Buffet sells his non-stock investments at substantial premiums to his purchase price. I have not doubt he will do likewise in silver. He goes on to report this "rumour" which he has "no opinion" yet he draws conclusions anyway.

There is one popular rumor that has been floating around the
marketplace, which we have no solid opinion on. It has been alleged
that PhiBro had a pre-existing silver position in excess of 100
million ounces dating back to 1995. In order for Buffett to sell
Solomon Brothers to Smith Barney, he was had to take this unprofitable position on his own books. This cannot be proven either way without getting into the books of PhiBro. Nonetheless, we do not believe that some of the players who were front-runners would have jumped into the silver market with both feet if this rumor were correct.

Finally Mr. Armstrong wants a full independant audit of the London silver yet he concludes as fact that there are 500 million oz there. If he knows this to be fact why the need for an audit? For Gold and silver to go to the levels he mentions would bankrupt and close every mine in the world. The ultimate effect of that would be the opposite of his conclusion. The new Euro would have no need for any Gold backing if Gold were merely a commodity as he states. I am very unimpressed with his radical viewpoints.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 22:46 - ID#286230)
Re: PEI::- I've been saying-- very infrequently lately-- that gold has been acting like a commodity for over a year now. I'm surprise to see some sign of agreement here.

We need an analysis of the similarity of Russia's current speeding up of the printing presses and the German inflation of the '20's. I don't know much about either but the 2 events look very similar on the surface.

old gold__A
(Tue Aug 25 1998 22:48 - ID#241261)
gold back
GoldBack means: let's put all the Gold Back and start all over!

(Tue Aug 25 1998 22:51 - ID#401460)

Appears to be falling again.

Good Night

(Tue Aug 25 1998 22:52 - ID#287114)
The economic crisis is not restricted to other countries. With the high value of the US dollar, the country is being forced into an isolated economy. Simply put, other countries cannot afford American made goods. The price of gold is in US dollars and is very expensive to many people worldwide. Thousands upon thousands of empty containers are leaving US ports. If no one else is buying American-made products, you living in an isolated economy. Its like the old country store. When you have more dollars leaving the till than you have coming in, hard times are inevitable. Recently, British Airways bought, for the first time, a large number of aircraft from Airbus. If you look at the cross currency charts, you will see it is just not feasible to buy Boeing aircraft in US dollars. Factories that depend on foreign trade will soon start laying off workers or moving their factories offshore where the economics are more feasible. The United States cannot be separated from a world economic crisis. Where was the last great depression made?

(Tue Aug 25 1998 22:52 - ID#219363)
@Silverbaron & Steve_in_TO
Re: Dinar, Denarius, Greek and Arabic translations, et al. Thanks for the excellent information, corrections, etc. Nifty neat stuff. I'm considering driving down to see the big storm coming into North Carolina. Hmm. Never seen a hurricane before. I know it isn't wise to fool with the Great Mother, but it's the adrenaline, and I'm having trouble going against the nature of it.

old gold__A
(Tue Aug 25 1998 22:53 - ID#241261)
holding actuals while watching their value fall is like jumping from the Empire State Building waiting for your parachute to open before you sell it all.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 22:59 - ID#335190)
mozel @ 1066 the Jew was brought to England, and the Magna Carta itemizes the Jew (1215)???
Date: Tue Aug 25 1998 19:54
mozel ( Origins ) ID#153110:
Copyright  1998 mozel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
A Law of the Jews Becomes the Law of the Land
" After the conquest of 1066, the Normans imposed on the English an efficiently organized social system that crowded out many Anglo-Saxon traditions. The Jews, whom the Normans brought to England, in their turn contributed to the changing English society. The Jews brought a refined system of commercial law: their own form of commerce and a system of rules to facilitate and govern it. These rules made their way into the developing structure of English Law Several elements of historical Jewish legal practice have been integrated into the English legal system. "


The Magna Carta

So where did history go astray?

The Magna Carta is a fact, it really does exist, several of them. One now rests in the archives of Lincoln Cathedral, in Salisbury, and many other places. The history of the evolution of this document in Anglo\Norman England has been shrouded by romance but it is often referred with sufficient vagueness as a sort of " statement of human rights", "freedom", "liberties" and "equality" document, or a constitutional forerunner, representative of the freedom from oppression of the 'the common people'.

This may be stretching the imagination more than somewhat. In fact, an informed historian might ask what you have in your pipe. Let's take a quick realistic peek at the way things may have been in a world less tinctured with rose colored glasses.
THE MAGNA CARTA ( The Great Charter ) :

10. If one who has borrowed from the Jews any sum, great or small, die before that loan be repaid, the debt shall not bear interest while the heir is under age, of whomsoever he may hold; and if the debt fall into our hands, we will not take anything except the principal sum contained in the bond.

11. And if anyone die indebted to the Jews, his wife shall have her dower and pay nothing of that debt; and if any children of the deceased are left under age, necessaries shall be provided for them in keeping with the holding of the deceased; and out of the residue the debt shall be paid, reserving, however, service due to feudal lords; in like manner let it be done touching debts due to others than Jews.

Take Care

(Tue Aug 25 1998 22:59 - ID#402131)
Armstrong and silver
Let me take a look back here. Demand is larger than supply. Supply is dropping? The price is dropping. something smells here to me. Martin
thinks that "someone" has been "hiding" silver for ?what? 6-7 years? And all of this just to set up us gold and silver bugs for a fall?
Yes I think he is right-Also time to short cheese as the moon is MADE of cheese!!! The price is going to tank!!!!! Long live cheese!

(Tue Aug 25 1998 22:59 - ID#227238)
If gold freely trades as a medium of exchange, there is no need for govt to confiscate. Indeed govt would have no further role in the matter except for mintage and or standards for weights and measures.

Such is the beauty of gold. .... As well its largest problem. It makes govt powerless in the manipulation of money and control of its people.

Confiscation only makes sense in order to force the acceptance of fiat currency. And then only to force dishoarding and to put wealth into circulation. Which was one of the things that FDR set out to do with his confiscation.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 23:03 - ID#257253)
believe me, sir, you do not want to confront the forces of Mother Nature headon - been there, and I do not recommend it for thrills. I knew people who did so, and are now past tense. The aftermath is even worse, because it displays suffering. Go in after the hurricane and help those less fortunate if you really want an adrenaline rush.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 23:08 - ID#250205)
truenorth: Armstrong bought a gold mine 3 months ago in Australia
I'm impressed that he hasn't changed his forecasts since buying Charters Towers. If I understand his forecast, deflation until early 2000, US starts to monetize, but dollar still rises until 2002-2003. The Fed was highly criticised for acting too slowly during Great Depression. It didn't want a deficit and tried to maintain surplus even though the world melted down. Greenspan I think is doing exactly the same thing. He is afriad with all this money headed into dollars & the guys on CNBC still calling stocks a buy, if he cuts rates we could get bubble economy in US. So he will not do anything until next year is my guess. So looks like another round of dollar up, deflation & then a reversal maybe next year or maybe Armstrong's 1.5 year turn is possible since it took the Fed that long in the 30s. Anyway you cut it, farmers are going bust now & government didn't do anything to help them. Just saying if gold drops to $190 can't happen because a lot of miners will go bust doesn't seem to add up. Besides, there are plenty of mines that will not go bust because they are still profitable at $150. If US$ goes up even more, then their cost of production drops in Australia, Canada, So Africa, Mexico & Russia while their profits go up because they are selling in US$. It will only be US$ mines that get in trouble just like Japanese companies when yen went to 78 back in 1995.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 23:10 - ID#218254)
Buy Gold, and Sell Stocks!!!
And ignore all the B.S. that ALL these bearish analysts ( on gold ) , and all those Bullish analysts ( on stocks ) are telling you.
Do you really think that the stock market is a buy at anything approaching these valuations? Don't you think that the same kind of B.S. was being talked about in 1929 when valuations were Not Even this high?

What makes you think that there may be any validity to ANY of those Brokerage house analysts Full page add's telling you that the Bear will still be in hibernation ITHO. These are the kinds of things that you should be paying ATTENTION to, and realize that the Jig is up on the Stock Market.
And think about where we are in gold at this time. Most are more than happy to give you all these reasons ( valid or not ) why Gold is not to be bought at these levels. For cryin out loud, do you think they will turn bullish if it goes any lower? NO, of course not only more will throw in the towel. I mean lower as in a minor new low, not a whole lot lower than we are now. Even if it is 5 to 10 $ an ounce.
Once again, To buy Low and Sell High you Have to do just that. Don't be swayed by the Maddening crowd!

(Tue Aug 25 1998 23:10 - ID#218254)
Buy Gold, and Sell Stocks!!!
And ignore all the B.S. that ALL these bearish analysts ( on gold ) , and all those Bullish analysts ( on stocks ) are telling you.
Do you really think that the stock market is a buy at anything approaching these valuations? Don't you think that the same kind of B.S. was being talked about in 1929 when valuations were Not Even this high?

What makes you think that there may be any validity to ANY of those Brokerage house analysts Full page add's telling you that the Bear will still be in hibernation ITHO. These are the kinds of things that you should be paying ATTENTION to, and realize that the Jig is up on the Stock Market.
And think about where we are in gold at this time. Most are more than happy to give you all these reasons ( valid or not ) why Gold is not to be bought at these levels. For cryin out loud, do you think they will turn bullish if it goes any lower? NO, of course not only more will throw in the towel. I mean lower as in a minor new low, not a whole lot lower than we are now. Even if it is 5 to 10 $ an ounce.
Once again, To buy Low and Sell High you Have to do just that. Don't be swayed by the Maddening crowd!

(Tue Aug 25 1998 23:10 - ID#153110)
A word coined to describe the economic landscape of the former Soviet Union, a place where factory locations and division of labor generally served the objective of tying together an empire of diverse peoples in an ideological economy.

But, it applies to the global economy now just as well. Japan is called the richest country. In what sense is that true ? So what if there are 12 trillion yen in savings accounts. Do they contain even as much wealth as twelve trillion onions ?

All currencies are overvalued relative to the wealth in the underlying tangibles of land and improvements which are made liquid or creditized to create a modern national currency. Gold in the ground is not worth $280 per ounce. It is worth that minus the costs of getting it out and refined. The credit bubble was worldwide. Absurdistan was everywhere. The collapse will be global as well. The Euro is the first new currency, but there will be many more.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 23:12 - ID#218254)
Sorry about the double double post!

(Tue Aug 25 1998 23:14 - ID#250205)
Government is about power. We live in socialistic world. If government goes back to only minting gold coins, it also has to get out of socialism. It will never happen. One golden rule always applies. at each and every financial crisis there is a winner. Somehow, some way. government ends up with more power. The Euro is just a stepping stone to the federalization of Europe. It's not about gold or a single currency. Its about controlling all of Europe to standardize everything. They always win.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 23:14 - ID#113316)
What it looks like to me.
In a perfect world, gold would have no monitary value. It would be rare and beautiful and that's it. But in today's world, our economic and physical security is under attack as never before. The potential for crisis is in the air, and we all sense it. Things here just seem too good. If we're fortunate, inflation and money creation will revalue gold. Unanticipated islamic violence against us sets in a new dynamic. At that point, who gives a s=== about gold.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 23:18 - ID#31867)
thank you for the email and phone calls...I stand by my words, in them, beside and around them
and the planet knows it...I live at 291 West Shore Road...Huntington, on the Island that is is not a secret...door is always open, my only crime is that I do not have the right toys for your children...but i can right heart beats so that your children smile...and my heart for the little people is greater than an infinity...when Monty Hall dreams I take care of the drapery...

(Tue Aug 25 1998 23:22 - ID#153110)
It seems clear that the committments protecting debtors made in Magna Carta were undone over the years. After all, the mortgage or security agreement which you make today inures to your "heirs, successors, and assigns" does it not ?

(Tue Aug 25 1998 23:25 - ID#228128)
Armstrong's reports always get such a warm response. I hope though that gold isn't just another commodity. If it is then all the world's CBs will be dumping it or using it for paper weights to keep their piles of greenbacks nice and tiddy. Here I lack general agreement with Armstrong. We have had several examples of currencies that went South after they dumped their gold reserves. I hope that puts the fear of gold into the rest of those shifty central bankers.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 23:27 - ID#373403)
Gold is just another commodity
Absolutely! Heresy? No, one could hedge inflation with positions in steel or corn or any physical asset but gold has several attributes which make it prime to be the king of commodities for monetary purposes.

It can be melted is the big one. This means that it can be infinitely divided. It does not deteriorate naturally. It is fungible. Relatively small quantities equal large value. It is pretty so in addition to being a store of value, it can get you laid. Nuff said.....

(Tue Aug 25 1998 23:27 - ID#242303)
What Armstrong doesn't tell us is where the cash should be...
Somehow the contagion of collapse will destroy everything but the US Dollar "the crisis is happening everywhere but in the US".

What about the US banks that heavily exposed to thirld world debt, business personal and Gov eg Citicorp.

When all these economies are crashhing and they are selling their gold are they just going to sit back on their US Gov bonds and never cash in a dollar.

It is rather easy to be a gold bear now. I wonder what Armstrong Esq was saying in 1995.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 23:27 - ID#218254)
Gold.....IS the Only Real Currency!
And if things get ugly, you'll be glad if you have some!

(Tue Aug 25 1998 23:28 - ID#286253)
Armstrong does it again!

Marty's most strident contention is that there are heaps and heaps of silver in London - this is the seed of his manipulation paranoia.

As I have said oft before, one does need to know the inventories in London to determine global silver liquidit ( or lack thereof. ) One simply has to look at the effect a billion dollar purchase had on silver's yield - the lease rates jumped form 5% to 70%. Imagine if one sold a billion dollars worth of bonds only to see bonds yields rocket thus?

Quite simply, if there were heaps of _available_ silver sitting on surface, 15% would have sufficed to bring this metal to market, or maybe 25% or even maybe 40%. But 70%? No - effective liquidity is just not there, London stocks be damned.

( Armstrong has contended that lease rates were deliberately driven up by a coordinated attempt of bullion holders refusing to lend. Apart from the fact that this would constitute a global conspricy ( boo! ) , one has to ask themselves if this is the logical thing to do for someone trying to corner a market. And no - it isn't. If I am I trying to corner a market, I want lease-based silver flows to continue between the shorts and the consumers - I want surface inventories to be sold off, I want the result to be a massive physical short position. Why would I crank up lease rates? Why would I try to choke this flow? So capacitor producers start to consider altenatives? If I am trying to corner a market, I'd give 'em as much string as they asked for. )

What worries me about the silver market right is a protracted period of slow, wasting long-liquidations. Specs are still in this up to their ya ya's ( and for good reason ) and could well get bored and become susceptible to having their stops blown away by aggressive shorts. There is more physical hanging around these days ( coughed up by the 70% rates, weaker demand in Asia, etc. ) and this market seems driven by the physical - no problem unless there is zero or less!

If the upcoming delivery session is boring - watch out.


(Tue Aug 25 1998 23:28 - ID#250205)
sig_a: I agree. Commodities collapse into 1932, then rallied into 1934
why everyone gets so upset to think that gold might go down to Armstrong's target of $190 or Precter's $100 is amazing. Everyone swore that gold would never break $400 because the Swiss banks would support it. It happened. Then they said the CBs would never sell. They did. My view is I hope Armstrong is wrong and Precter is right. I can buy a lot more at $100 than I can at $280. I don't think gold will hold. If $280 was really cheap, it would keep coming back to this level. God gives you one chance to sell a major high and one chance to buy the major low. He doesn't give you endless buying opportunities. I don't know if Armstrong is right about all this silver in London or if he is nuts. But one thing is sure. If he is right, then it explains the price action despite the draw downs in NY COMEX. Armstrong is not the only guy saying that London should open its vaults like the COMEX does. Maybe the truth will not be known on this issue until London does report like COMEX. I think the bullion dealer he refers to is GS. We also shouldn't forget why Buffett got involved with Solomon Brothers - they got caught manipulating the US government treasury auctions. If these guys will try to rig the government treasury auctions, maybe we shouldn't think that Armstrong is nuts about a manipulation in silver and the whole metals group.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 23:30 - ID#286249)
Free Banking--
Free Banking--
Annelise Anderson, Senior Research Fellow The Hoover Institution

Free Banking: The Record

The characteristics of a free banking system are freedom of
entry and freedom of note issue with minimal government
regulation. The role of the government ( beyond enabling
legislation ) is the enforcement of contract and of laws against
fraud and other criminal activity. A free banking system has no
central bank and no lender of last resort.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 23:32 - ID#287114)
I am finding it harder to buy into the argument of $$$$$$$ going south due to gold sales, I went with that theory for a long time.
Many countries have suffered devaluations recently without gold sales.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 23:34 - ID#250205)
Wizend: Guess your new. Armstrong call the decline back in 1995
& he has been consistently bearish but is long-term bullish from 2000 going into 2003. Lot of gold bugs hate him because he has been bearish.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 23:36 - ID#113316)
Your right. Check Argentina. No gold...Strong Money.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 23:36 - ID#257253)
The hegemony of US$ will be questioned, but probably not on the economic battlefield. That arena has been rigged. At some point, those battered nations that still have any metals will mold them into weapons and start to equalize the landscape without paper. Doubt it? Read history. Great disparities will be made equal. From My Humble Studies ( FMHS )

(Tue Aug 25 1998 23:39 - ID#222231)
This one is for Tolerant1.

The time is short for equities and loss of confidence in the US of A by the world because of a nefarious despot. Get your GOLD before it's too late.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 23:41 - ID#341312)
Mr. Armstrong would be right except...
I don't believe he's read the latest GAO report on the state of Y2K compliance recently published. As of May '97 ( those damn two digit years just pop up everywhere! ) the feds had 21% of their mission critical systems fixed. One year later, 40%. Sooooooo... in the last 1 and 1/3 years they'll get an additional 25% done for a grand total of....
( drum roll, please )
65% done! Pop the champagne corks! Break out the noise makers! Nearly 2 out of 3 "absolutely gotta have or the whole thing falls down" systems will be operational! Actually, this rate of progress is pretty optimistic considering many systems look ahead a few months or more so we don't have the full 16 months. Also, we're assuming that general social conditions do not deteriorate in the final "death march" phase ( bank runs, anyone? ) so maybe 50% to 55% is more realistic. Yippee! Half done! And to those who think lots-o-money will fix it at the last minute, well, what will you spend it on? Thousands more experienced cobol coders? From where? Not the private sector, they pay more. A LOT more. Try again. Better yet, try reading "The Mythical Man-Month" and see what happens when you pile on more programmers at the end of a program. Chaos. Which of course equals cash to us contractor types but that's another story. Sorry. GAME OVER. To restart economy, please insert gold or silver coins to continue...

Y2K Joke of the Week:
IT Consultant: I've developed the ultimate Y2K "silver bullet".
Direct employee: ( warily ) What's that?
IT consultant: Start in 1993!
Consultant: Hey, I'm outta here. Wanna stop by the gun shop? They got a sale on 00 buck.
Direct: Nah. Gotta go meet my realtor. Sellin' the house. Might stop by later after I hit the coin shop, though.
Consultant: Ok.

So Mr. Armstrong, what was that you were saying about a dollar bull market? Perhaps you're right. After all, the dollar IS backed by the full faith and credit of the United States Government. Nothing more, nothing less.

Of course, Washington has done one thing to ( oops, for ) us lately: Given us a "war without end" with Islamic fundamentalists. I bet "Wag the Dog" will not be too funny in the upcoming years. And all to provide a temporary diversion from presidential scandal. The really pathetic part is that the diversion didn't even work. Kinda like most of the government and a lot of businesses in about 16 months.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 23:42 - ID#218254)
Gold is being sold by C.B.'s due to their belief that it no longer has
validity in the global economy now relative to other forms of ( fiat ) currency. What else would you expect at the Turning point? For them to be right! Most aren't.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 23:43 - ID#286230)
There is a difference between acting like a commodity during a period of time and being a commodity "for ever more". When times are good nobody-outside of the usual users- wants gold. Look back over the last 20 years and see the decline in its value.

I have no faith in the argument that some countries currencies are dropping like gold because they have no gold in the Central bank. Gold is not valued in the financial market enough to begin to account for falling currencies these days. Much more important to falling currencies are falling value of exports. Witness the Norwegian, Canadian and Australian currencies. The Canadian economy is booming and the deficit is history and now the massive debt is starting to be paid off---still the C$ declines--minerals and other natural resources are falling in price and so all export related cash generation is hampered. The Norwegian krona is falling with oil prices. But its an old argument and one that will go on for a while yet.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 23:44 - ID#334219)
It is indeed true that miners in Canada, Australia and other coutires with plunging currencies are turning out better profits thanks to the combination of US$ revenus and $C ( or else ) expenses. However, very few are profitable at US$150. Keep in mind the average cash costs are over $US200. Nevertheless, many will survive a drop to $US150 if it materialized and does not last more than 12-18 months.

To be honest, I prefer that gold stop its descent now..even if I could buy a lot more miners with gold below $US200.. Stocks are cheap enough with so many selling for US$5-$15 per ounce in the ground.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 23:48 - ID#250205)
IMF is the blame: Milton Freedman was on TV past Sunday
and he agrees with Armstrong's view. By IMF pretending to stand behind Asia, Mexico and Russia, hedge funds & bankers bought all this Russian paper figuring that they could get 150% interest without risk because the IMF would "never" let Russia default. The IMF encouraged lending to Russia that would otherwise not have taken place if someone like the IMF didn't pretend to guarantee it. Watch Mexico. It will get hit real hard because if the IMF could stop Russian from collapsing with all their nucs, they will not stand behind Mexico, Korea, Japan or China. My bet, gold breaks & dollar goes to 160 yen by end of September. At some point, dollar get way over-done and then it corrects. It just is not right now. If the metals could collapse when Russia announced its debt solution today, then what the heck is going to make them go up? Maybe IMF goes broke and starts to sell gold. This thing ain't over until the fat lady sings.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 23:50 - ID#238422)
John Disney
Brother John,

I just finished talking to my camel, and he told me
a very amazing story. Yesterday she talked on the phone
with her brother in Sudan, Abdul Rashid von Camelmeister II,
who has numerous connections among Sudanese camels. Anyway,
those guys from camel hunting society really got a soil
sample...from under some releaved camel...When they brought
it to the chemist, the poor guy smelt some unknown type
of gas and got nervous....Anyway, being nervous after
influence of this gas, he rushed out of lab, shouting "Gas!
I smell f...king gas!". Guess what - this phenomena was
called "nerve gas"... and they were right!!! Now, all
camel owners over there are trying to prove it was just a
complete sh*t, and it's interesting that they are asking
good guy Carter to go in and smell it...What if he really
goes there?

(Tue Aug 25 1998 23:58 - ID#250205)
fiveliter: Y2K may ultimately become an issue but not yet
The marketplace never looks that far out. They are concerned about Russia, Mexico - that's the news. Y2K may be a reason for the bull market. Armstrong's view on Y2K is also different. He thinks that Y2K won't be end of world but will spark inflation. If everyone becomes worried about Y2K around Nov of 1999, then they will run out and start to stockpile goods. If Y2K causes delays in production you end up with shortage of goods and inflation. I thin that why he is bearish for next year but bullish between 2000 and 2003. People seem to be arguing over facts when I think the issue with Armstrong is not facts but timing. After all, he bought a gold mine that was capitalized at $75 million. I think that proves he at least believes his long-term models but differentiates them from his short-term.

(Tue Aug 25 1998 23:59 - ID#257253)
All - respect the man and his legacy; the fact that Sudan requests him reflects his stature and the respect he deserves as an honest, intelligent, and sincere leader. What does this say about all his detractors and the pounding he has received over the last twenty years?
What has always been true about america -
good leader = bad politician
good politician = bad leader!