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Euro Markets
Coming of the Euro Sparks Debate On What Banks Will Do With Gold
By NEIL BEHRMANN Special to THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
LONDON -- Will European central banks continue to dump gold now that the euro is up and running?
Following massive sales this decade by central banks in the Netherlands and Belgium, among others, analysts and traders are sharply divided on
the issue. And, although the dollar's slide Thursday boosted gold's price to $290.15 a troy ounce, up $2.60, in late London trading, its price in euros languished. At 248.50 euros ( $288.91 ) , the price of gold is just 6.50 euros above this week's two-year low of 242 euros and is 21% below February 1997 levels, dealers said.
"The good news is that there haven't been any European central bank sales since Belgium sold in the first quarter of last year," said Andy Smith, a
London based commodity analyst for Mitsui Bussan Commodities Ltd. "The bad news is that gold continues to behave poorly even though there
hasn't been any pressure from central banks."
Valuation Change
Despite the absence of sales since the first quarter of last year, the 11 European central banks comprising the euro zone could still sell in the
future, analysts said. The most significant change to official holdings of gold is that the European Central Bank is valuing the precious metal at market values, they said. This contrasts with previous conservative European central bank gold valuations in which the metal was priced at varying levels below market price, they said.
Changes to the ECB's and euro zone's gold reserves are "now upfront," showing that European central banks don't believe that gold is "something
special" any longer, said Mr. Smith. This transparency will make central bank treasurers acutely aware of gold's performance compared with other assets and will encourage them to manage their gold reserves much more
aggressively, he said.
Despite these concerns, Rhona O'Connell, a metals analyst at T. Hoare & Co, forecast that European central banks won't sell more gold this year as the metal's price in euros is too low. Regardless of whether one believes they will or won't sell, central banks will continue to lend their gold to obtain interest income, dealers said.
Gold accounts for 14%, or 99.6 billion euros, of total foreign exchange, gold and other assets of euro-zone central banks and the European Central Bank, the ECB's consolidated accounts at Jan. 1 showed. Official gold figures from the ECB aren't yet available, but based on the price of gold and the dollar/euro exchange rate at the end of last year, gold held by euro-zone central banks and the ECB amounted to 12,574 metric tons, according to estimates from the World Gold Council. The council also estimated that the ECB's own gold and foreign-exchange reserves totaled 39.5 billion euros at Jan. 1, of which gold accounted for 15%, or 747 metric tons.
Price to Dictate Strategy
The strategy of euro-zone central banks, who still control about 11,827 tons of gold valued at more than 90 billion euros, will depend on price perceptions. While gold's depressed price -- when valued in euros -- deters selling by central banks, it also illustrates that the metal hasn't done well as an investment, dealers said.
"The Maastricht treaty rules that any gold transactions above a certain [undisclosed] limit must be approved by the ECB," said Robert Pringle,
a director at the World Gold Council. The market is unsure about policies because ECB guidelines on foreign exchange and gold transactions haven't
been made public, he said.
However, Germany, France and Italy recently said they "weren't looking to sell any of their gold reserves," he said.
An ECB spokesman declined to comment on its gold-trading policy.
James: What would be even more scary than liars is if the analysts actually believe what they're saying, which I dunno, they might. I like the one guy, Joe, or whoever he is, the analyst that sits on CNBC and gives the number by number news and all that jazz. At least when he says something will probably go up and seems like a good bet he sometimes says "well, assuming we continue to have high valuations like we've had for the past four years". It's difficult to watch CNBC sometimes, kind of like listening to the White House talk about how cool the President is. If you want to hear some bears, you have to walk away from the bull show.
Take a look. It's up at The Privateer website along with all our other regular weekly updates.
The 15% of reserve gold holdings applies to the EURO itself, which is still thinly traded compared to the other European currencies. Further, total gold reserves ( internal plus external ) are 30% of total reserves.
What I don't understand is that the US is supposed to have even more than 30% reserves in gold.
I think the problem is that one should not really compare percent of total reserves that are in gold, but rather how many ounces of gold ( in the local currency units ) compared to the money supply. The old bottom line is simply whether or not the local currency can be backed 100% by gold.
When CB gold holdings are compared in this manner, I think Switzerland and one other forgotten country comes out on top ( Austria? ) . And, I think Europe comes off much better this way than the good 'ol USA.
APH: Kudos to you -- telling us where you put your retirement funds: Gold and energy mutual funds. For the last two weeks that is exactly where I had my funds: 40% in gold funds FSAGX, FDPMX, 10% in FSNGX ( since the jetstream swept down over the US, 50% cash. About 10% profit overall, and more to come! Since I remember Oct 97 vividly, I darenot put all my liquid assets in the markets, unlike you.
I think gold equities will continue to do well as long as the impeachment trial continues.
However, I have one eye looking back over my shoulder for that big delationary Tsunami that might hit us unsuspecting gold bug Tsunami surfers. Brazil is looking shakier and shakier.
There is alot more going on within the Senate than they will openly discuss. Right now, I am proud of our House and Senate -- they are showing alot more American spirit in doing the right thing without fearing the opinion polls. That is something that WJC will never understand -- like Bob Livingston resigning for the good of the country.
A good barometer of how WJC is doing these days is to see how many bruises he has from Hillary, or whether Hillary even talks to him. Of course, those PR/makeup people are pretty good these days at covering up the negatives, even a portrait of Dorian Gray. On the other hand -- his best PR person -- Dick Morris, is now working for the opposition.
One could argue that our current period could last 30 years as well before the DOW fizzles, and our debt explodes again. However, I doubt it. We don't have the savings reserves that we once had, and our unofficial entitlement debt and corporate debt add at least 40 trillion to the total.
We may still be doing relatively better than Germany and France, who now seem to think they can loosen their belts, and ignore their entitlement + employment problems.
Now, ATT and all the little Bells have solid state switching stations, having replaced virtually all the mechanical stepping relays. Also these companies -- especially ATT -- have been cutting staff like crazy!
So -- what happens to the phones if ATT fails to do their job by y2k? All the phone systems go down. And probably the beepers, and cellular phones.
Right now I have asked my colleagues at work -- one used to work at ATT -- to find out whether the beepers and cellular phones are so interlinked with these switching stations that they will go if ATT goes the way of the DODO on y2k. And -- of course -- there is the small matter of internet access if ATT and clones go down. Of course, if Sprint or MCI could bypass ATT, and promise y2k service, imagine how much business they would get, virtually overnight!
HERE IS MY QUESTION TO ALL:
If you knew the phone systems would go down, but wanted continuous access to information, what would you do beside order a AM/FM/SW solar radio? How about cable modems, or satellite modems? Is there anything out there that promises y2k compliance all the way from the house to some key y2k compliant T3 or Tx internet node?
I know it is possible, as the Internet is not as fragile as it looks! Its collective IQ probably reaches into the hundreds of thousands, or perhaps into the millions!
And I thought I wanted to reach the stars! We have a newly born superintelligence right here on this earth -- right in front of each of us -- right in our PC's! The stars can wait until after y2k.
If so -- how do I dare get close enough to siphon off a few megavolts for my little long wave radio? Twenty paces?
Sounds a little rich for my taste -- even B. Franklin or N. Tesla would have been wise enough to stay away from such a contraption -- IHMO!
We must all think of a solution -- each of us in our own way. I'm sure you can come up with something -- how about a trial satellite subscription beginning Nov 1999? I would guess that if we are all lucky we would need such an expensive linkup for only a few months until the dust settles. If not, it will be back to radios for all of us. I can dust off my antique Hammarlund I got for nothing 20 years ago, but I don't know morse code, and I don't have a SW transmitter!
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The bubble is still inflating. Too much liquidity. I guess the bubbble will continue for a while, unless and until the Japanese bond market tubes.